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000
FGUS63 KMSR 221900
ESGMIS

MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LOCK AND DAM 20 AT CANTON..MISSOURI
TO CHESTER..ILLINOIS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
200 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Dardenne Creek
DRCM7            18.0   20.0   23.0    36   36   32   32   15   18
:Mississippi River
CANM7            14.0   20.0   25.0    56   60    7    9   <5   <5
UINI2            17.0   18.0   22.5    52   60   44   53    9   20
HNNM7            16.0   22.0   24.0    55   63    6    9   <5    6
SVRM7            16.0   20.0   22.0    47   56   20   29    9   13
LUSM7            15.0   20.0   25.0    67   64   18   29   <5    6
CLKM7            25.0   31.0   33.0    69   64   13   26   <5    7
CAGM7            26.0   30.0   34.0    55   64   23   30   <5    6

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211900/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Dardenne Creek
DRCM7       3.3/    3.3/    9.5/   13.0/   22.1/   24.6/   25.5
:Mississippi River
CANM7      13.3/   13.3/   13.4/   14.6/   16.5/   19.2/   21.2
UINI2      16.1/   16.1/   16.2/   17.5/   19.8/   22.8/   25.1
QLDI2      15.0/   15.0/   15.1/   16.4/   18.6/   21.6/   24.0
HNNM7      15.3/   15.3/   15.4/   16.3/   18.8/   21.3/   23.1
SVRM7      14.4/   14.4/   14.4/   15.9/   18.9/   21.8/   23.6
LUSM7      14.4/   14.5/   14.7/   16.7/   19.0/   21.3/   22.6
CLKM7      24.4/   24.4/   24.7/   27.0/   29.6/   31.9/   33.2
CAGM7      24.5/   24.5/   24.8/   27.1/   29.7/   32.0/   33.0
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211900/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Dardenne Creek
DRCM7       3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    2.9/    2.9/    2.8/    2.8
:Mississippi River
CANM7       7.8/    6.9/    5.5/    3.9/    3.3/    2.8/    2.5
UINI2      12.6/   12.4/   12.1/   11.5/   11.0/   10.9/   10.9
QLDI2       8.3/    7.5/    6.0/    4.4/    3.8/    3.3/    3.0
HNNM7      11.7/   11.3/   10.7/   10.0/    9.9/    9.7/    9.6
SVRM7       8.5/    7.9/    6.7/    5.3/    4.8/    4.3/    4.1
LUSM7      12.1/   12.0/   12.0/   11.9/   11.9/   11.8/   11.8
CLKM7      19.1/   18.1/   16.7/   15.0/   14.4/   13.7/   13.5
CAGM7      18.9/   17.9/   16.5/   14.8/   14.3/   13.6/   13.3
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 221842
ESGILO

ILLINOIS RIVER
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
138 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:North Branch Chicago River
NBAI2             7.0    7.5    8.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Illinois River
MORI2            16.0   18.0   22.0    24   29   15   13    6    6
OTWI2           463.0  466.0  469.0    16   18   10   10    6    6
LSLI2            20.0   27.0   31.0    47   58    9   10   <5   <5
HNYI2            23.0   24.0   31.0    30   40   23   26   <5   <5
PIAI2            18.0   22.0   28.0    35   47    7   13   <5   <5
HAVI2            14.0   17.0   23.0    40   58   15   23   <5   <5
BEAI2            14.0   18.0   28.0    43   69   23   33   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211838/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Illinois River
MORI2       5.7/    6.5/    8.5/   12.0/   16.2/   20.1/   22.5
:North Branch Chicago River
NBAI2       3.8/    3.9/    4.4/    5.0/    5.7/    6.5/    6.9
:Illinois River
OTWI2     458.7/  458.9/  459.3/  460.6/  462.6/  466.0/  469.4
LSLI2      12.0/   13.0/   15.6/   19.6/   23.7/   27.0/   30.2
HNYI2      15.3/   15.8/   16.7/   19.6/   23.6/   25.5/   27.0
PIAI2      12.3/   12.7/   13.2/   14.4/   20.2/   21.7/   23.2
HAVI2       7.5/    8.5/   11.0/   13.0/   16.1/   19.0/   20.1
BEAI2      10.3/   10.8/   11.6/   13.7/   17.2/   23.0/   24.9
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211838/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:North Branch Chicago River
NBAI2       1.4/    1.3/    1.2/    1.1/    1.0/    1.0/    1.0
:Illinois River
MORI2       5.2/    5.2/    5.0/    4.8/    4.7/    4.6/    4.6
OTWI2     458.6/  458.6/  458.5/  458.5/  458.5/  458.5/  458.5
LSLI2      11.5/   11.4/   11.0/   10.9/   10.8/   10.7/   10.6
HNYI2      14.9/   14.8/   14.6/   14.5/   14.3/   14.1/   14.1
PIAI2      12.0/   11.9/   10.6/   10.6/   10.6/   10.5/   10.5
HAVI2       6.0/    5.4/    5.0/    4.9/    4.8/    4.8/    4.8
BEAI2      10.0/    9.8/    9.5/    9.2/    9.1/    9.0/    9.0
.END

IN TABLE 4 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 4--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211838/DRD+6/DVD90/QTVFZXT/QTVFZX9/QTVFZXH
.B1 /QTVFZX5/QTVFZXG/QTVFZX1/QTVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Illinois River
MROI2     17.55/  26.75/  31.40/  36.42/  42.20/  46.96/  54.50
HARI2     20.43/  26.74/  32.49/  44.27/  49.56/  56.09/  62.03
.END


IN TABLE 5 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOWS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 5--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211838/DRD+6/DVD90/QTVFZNT/QTVFZN9/QTVFZNH
.B1 /QTVFZN5/QTVFZNG/QTVFZN1/QTVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Illinois River
MROI2      6.48/   5.98/   5.44/   4.91/   3.95/   3.50/   3.18
HARI2      6.81/   6.39/   5.63/   5.23/   4.18/   3.72/   3.30
.END



:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 221620
ESGM19

MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM DUBUQUE..IOWA TO GREGORY LANDING..MISSOURI
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1120 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Mississippi River
DBQI4            17.0   18.0   21.5    46   36   24   32    7    7
DLDI4            16.0   17.0   20.5    35   35   15   24   <5    6
BLVI4            17.0   18.0   20.0    13   21    9   12   <5    6
FLTI2            16.0   18.0   20.0    41   38   13   23   <5    9
CMMI4            17.0   18.5   20.5    29   35   13   24    9   12
LECI4            11.0   12.0   13.5    35   40   15   29   12   13
RCKI2            15.0   16.0   18.0    52   43   33   40   13   18
MUSI4            16.0   18.0   20.0    56   49   27   36   10   18
ILNI2            15.0   16.0   18.0    44   43   27   36   10   18
NBOI2            15.0   16.5   18.5   >95   52   35   40   12   21
KHBI2            14.0   15.5   17.0   >95   53   33   38   16   21
GLDI2            10.0   12.0   14.0   >95   56   26   35   10   18
BRLI4            15.0   16.5   18.0    53   52   26   33   18   23
EOKI4            16.0   17.5   19.0    18   27   12   20    6    7
GGYM7            15.0   18.0   25.0    52   58   21   29   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211620/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Mississippi River
DLDI4      14.2/   14.3/   14.4/   15.1/   16.3/   18.7/   20.3
DBQI4      15.9/   15.9/   16.0/   16.8/   18.0/   20.3/   21.9
BLVI4      14.0/   14.0/   14.1/   14.9/   16.0/   18.3/   19.7
FLTI2      14.4/   14.5/   14.6/   15.3/   16.7/   19.5/   20.1
CMMI4      15.1/   15.1/   15.3/   15.9/   17.3/   20.4/   21.1
LECI4      10.0/   10.0/   10.1/   10.5/   11.6/   14.3/   14.6
RCKI2      14.4/   14.4/   14.4/   15.3/   16.5/   19.5/   20.0
ILNI2      14.2/   14.2/   14.2/   14.8/   16.2/   19.5/   20.4
MUSI4      15.9/   15.9/   15.9/   16.5/   18.2/   21.0/   21.8
NBOI2      15.5/   15.5/   15.5/   15.9/   17.3/   20.5/   21.3
KHBI2      14.0/   14.0/   14.0/   14.3/   16.0/   17.8/   19.5
GLDI2      10.3/   10.3/   10.3/   10.5/   12.2/   14.4/   16.3
BRLI4      15.0/   15.0/   15.0/   15.1/   16.7/   18.9/   20.4
EOKI4      11.9/   11.9/   11.9/   12.5/   14.8/   18.4/   20.0
GGYM7      14.0/   14.0/   14.0/   15.3/   17.3/   20.2/   22.2
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211620/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Mississippi River
DLDI4       7.3/    6.5/    6.1/    4.9/    4.6/    4.3/    4.1
DBQI4       9.6/    8.9/    8.5/    7.9/    7.6/    7.3/    7.3
BLVI4       8.2/    7.2/    6.5/    4.8/    4.2/    3.8/    3.6
FLTI2       7.8/    6.8/    6.1/    4.8/    4.6/    4.3/    4.3
CMMI4      10.5/    9.9/    9.6/    9.1/    8.9/    8.8/    8.8
LECI4       6.2/    5.7/    5.4/    4.8/    4.6/    4.4/    4.4
RCKI2       8.1/    7.1/    6.4/    5.3/    4.7/    4.3/    4.2
ILNI2       6.3/    5.6/    5.0/    4.2/    3.8/    3.5/    3.4
MUSI4       8.0/    7.5/    7.1/    6.4/    6.2/    6.0/    5.9
NBOI2       7.7/    6.7/    5.9/    4.3/    3.8/    3.4/    3.3
KHBI2       8.9/    8.2/    7.3/    6.1/    5.8/    5.5/    5.5
GLDI2       4.2/    3.6/    2.9/    1.8/    1.4/    1.1/    1.0
BRLI4      10.2/    9.7/    9.0/    8.2/    7.9/    7.6/    7.6
EOKI4       6.5/    5.7/    5.2/    3.8/    2.8/    2.3/    2.2
GGYM7       8.4/    7.7/    6.9/    6.5/    6.3/    6.2/    6.2
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 221615
ESGSRS

SOURIS RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1115 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Des Lacs River
DESN8            16.0   18.0   19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Souris River
SHWN8            18.0   20.0   25.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FOXN8            10.0   13.0   15.0    20   32    6   21   <5   <5
MINN8            14.0   17.0   22.0    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
MION8          1549.0 1551.0 1555.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LGNN8            34.0   36.0   38.0    <5   12   <5    6   <5   <5
SWRN8            22.0   24.0   26.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
VLVN8          1505.0 1510.0 1515.0    <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Wintering River
KLSN8             7.0    9.0   10.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Souris River
TOWN8            52.0   54.0   56.0   >95   49   16   29   <5    6
BANN8            11.0   12.0   14.0   >95   46   16   33   <5   <5
:Willow Creek
WLCN8            10.0   14.0   16.0    15   29    7    9   <5   <5
:Souris River
WSTN8            10.0   14.0   16.0    26   46    6   16   <5   12

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211615/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Des Lacs River
DESN8       4.9/    4.9/    4.9/    6.1/    7.8/    8.8/   10.2
:Souris River
SHWN8       2.4/    2.5/    3.2/    5.5/    9.1/   13.1/   15.4
FOXN8       6.8/    6.8/    7.0/    7.7/    9.4/   12.0/   13.4
MINN8       5.8/    5.8/    5.8/    6.0/    8.2/   10.2/   12.4
MION8    1541.4/ 1541.4/ 1541.4/ 1541.5/ 1542.2/ 1543.4/ 1544.7
LGNN8      24.3/   24.3/   24.3/   24.7/   27.4/   31.9/   34.2
SWRN8       9.0/    9.0/    9.1/    9.7/   12.5/   18.0/   20.0
VLVN8    1492.0/ 1492.0/ 1492.0/ 1493.6/ 1497.3/ 1504.2/ 1505.1
:Wintering River
KLSN8       3.8/    3.8/    3.8/    3.8/    4.5/    6.5/    7.1
:Souris River
TOWN8      52.7/   52.7/   52.7/   52.7/   53.0/   55.0/   55.4
BANN8      11.1/   11.1/   11.1/   11.1/   11.3/   12.9/   13.2
:Willow Creek
WLCN8       8.8/    8.8/    8.8/    8.8/    8.8/   13.4/   15.1
:Souris River
WSTN8       9.7/    9.7/    9.7/    9.7/   10.2/   13.0/   15.8
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211615/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Des Lacs River
DESN8       4.8/    4.8/    4.7/    4.6/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5
:Souris River
SHWN8       2.2/    2.0/    1.9/    0.6/    0.6/    0.6/    0.6
FOXN8       5.5/    4.8/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5
MINN8       4.5/    4.4/    4.2/    4.1/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0
MION8    1539.2/ 1538.6/ 1537.5/ 1537.1/ 1536.9/ 1536.8/ 1536.8
LGNN8      21.5/   21.0/   20.2/   19.7/   19.4/   19.3/   19.3
SWRN8       7.0/    6.8/    6.2/    5.9/    5.7/    5.6/    5.5
VLVN8    1490.8/ 1490.6/ 1489.9/ 1489.4/ 1489.1/ 1489.0/ 1489.0
:Wintering River
KLSN8       2.6/    2.2/    1.9/    1.6/    1.6/    1.6/    1.6
:Souris River
TOWN8      47.3/   46.5/   45.0/   44.6/   44.5/   44.5/   44.5
BANN8       5.1/    4.3/    3.2/    2.7/    2.6/    2.5/    2.5
:Willow Creek
WLCN8       5.1/    4.9/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6
:Souris River
WSTN8       7.9/    7.6/    6.9/    6.6/    6.5/    6.4/    6.4
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 221613
ESGM10

MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LAKE CITY..MINNESOTA TO
LOCK AND DAM 10 AT GUTTENBERG..IOWA
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1112 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:South Fork Zumbro River
RCHM5            14.0   18.0   20.0     9    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Zumbro River
ZUMM5            18.0   24.0   26.0     9   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Branch Root River
LNSM5            12.0   16.0   18.0    13    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Root River
HOUM5            15.0   17.0   18.0    13    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Upper Iowa River
DEHI4            12.0   13.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DCHI4            14.0   17.0   19.0    20   18    6   <5   <5   <5
:Turkey River
EKDI4            12.0   16.0   20.0    41   33   10   10    6   <5
GRBI4            17.0   20.0   23.0    26   20   13   10    6    7
:Mississippi River
LKCM5            16.0   18.0   20.0    12   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
WABM5            12.0   14.0   16.0   >95   41    6   12   <5   <5
ALMW3            16.0   17.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MSCM5           660.0  662.0  665.0    15   18   <5   10   <5   <5
WIDM5           656.0  659.0  661.0    15   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
WNAM5            13.0   15.0   18.0    30   29    7   15   <5   <5
TREW3           647.0  649.0  651.0    23   21   <5   12   <5   <5
LCRM5           641.0  643.0  645.0    16   18   <5    9   <5   <5
LACW3            12.0   13.0   15.5    21   24    7   15   <5   <5
GENW3           631.0  634.0  636.0    38   35   <5    7   <5   <5
LNSI4            17.0   19.0   20.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
LYNW3           625.0  628.0  631.0    10   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
MCGI4            16.0   20.0   23.0    50   36    9   12   <5   <5
GTTI4            15.0   18.0   21.0    27   32    7    9   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211612/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:South Fork Zumbro River
RCHM5       3.7/    4.4/    5.3/    6.9/    8.0/   13.5/   17.9
:Zumbro River
ZUMM5       8.1/    8.1/    9.3/   11.4/   13.6/   18.5/   21.3
:South Branch Root River
LNSM5       3.0/    3.4/    3.9/    5.7/    9.1/   13.0/   16.0
:Root River
HOUM5       5.7/    5.8/    6.4/    9.4/   12.1/   16.1/   16.4
:Upper Iowa River
DEHI4       3.1/    3.5/    4.6/    5.5/    7.2/    9.1/   11.4
DCHI4       8.6/    9.2/   10.5/   11.5/   13.7/   16.1/   19.5
:Turkey River
EKDI4       7.6/    7.8/    9.4/   10.9/   14.1/   17.6/   21.7
GRBI4       9.2/    9.4/   11.0/   13.4/   17.1/   21.9/   28.2
:Mississippi River
LKCM5      14.2/   14.2/   14.2/   14.3/   15.1/   16.1/   17.0
WABM5      12.2/   12.2/   12.3/   12.3/   12.8/   13.6/   14.4
ALMW3      11.0/   11.0/   11.0/   11.1/   11.9/   13.0/   14.0
MSCM5     658.0/  658.1/  658.1/  658.2/  659.3/  660.5/  661.7
WIDM5     653.6/  653.7/  653.7/  653.8/  655.0/  656.4/  657.5
WNAM5      12.1/   12.1/   12.2/   12.3/   13.5/   14.9/   16.1
TREW3     645.8/  645.8/  645.9/  646.0/  646.9/  648.0/  648.9
LCRM5     639.4/  639.4/  639.5/  639.6/  640.6/  641.6/  642.5
LACW3      11.0/   11.0/   11.1/   11.2/   12.0/   12.8/   13.5
GENW3     630.4/  630.4/  630.5/  630.7/  631.5/  632.6/  633.5
LNSI4      12.1/   12.1/   12.2/   12.5/   13.5/   15.1/   16.1
LYNW3     622.4/  622.4/  622.5/  622.8/  623.8/  625.4/  626.4
MCGI4      15.0/   15.1/   15.2/   16.1/   17.2/   20.0/   21.6
GTTI4      13.5/   13.6/   13.7/   14.2/   15.2/   17.4/   18.8
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211612/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:South Fork Zumbro River
RCHM5       2.9/    2.8/    2.6/    2.5/    2.4/    2.3/    2.2
:Zumbro River
ZUMM5       5.9/    5.5/    5.2/    4.9/    4.5/    4.4/    3.8
:South Branch Root River
LNSM5       2.1/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.8/    1.8
:Root River
HOUM5       3.5/    3.4/    3.2/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    2.9
:Upper Iowa River
DEHI4       2.3/    2.2/    2.1/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9
DCHI4       7.5/    7.5/    7.3/    7.2/    7.1/    7.1/    7.1
:Turkey River
EKDI4       6.2/    6.1/    5.8/    5.6/    5.5/    5.5/    5.4
GRBI4       7.1/    6.9/    6.4/    6.2/    6.1/    6.0/    6.0
:Mississippi River
LKCM5       7.7/    7.1/    6.7/    6.3/    6.1/    5.9/    5.9
WABM5       7.9/    7.6/    7.4/    7.1/    7.0/    6.9/    6.9
ALMW3       5.5/    5.1/    4.8/    4.5/    4.4/    4.3/    4.2
MSCM5     652.0/  651.6/  651.4/  651.2/  651.1/  651.1/  651.0
WIDM5     646.8/  646.4/  646.1/  645.9/  645.7/  645.6/  645.6
WNAM5       6.1/    5.8/    5.7/    5.6/    5.6/    5.5/    5.5
TREW3     640.8/  640.4/  640.1/  639.7/  639.6/  639.4/  639.4
LCRM5     633.3/  632.6/  632.3/  631.6/  631.4/  631.3/  631.3
LACW3       5.9/    5.3/    5.2/    5.0/    4.9/    4.9/    4.8
GENW3     623.9/  622.9/  622.4/  621.4/  621.1/  620.8/  620.7
LNSI4       8.5/    8.2/    8.1/    7.9/    7.8/    7.8/    7.7
LYNW3     616.6/  615.2/  614.8/  613.5/  613.0/  612.5/  612.3
MCGI4       9.2/    8.5/    8.3/    7.9/    7.7/    7.4/    7.3
GTTI4       8.0/    6.7/    6.0/    4.8/    4.4/    4.0/    3.9
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 221327
ESGRDW

MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOVE RED WING..MINNESOTA
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
827 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Prairie River
TACM5            10.0   12.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Sauk River
STCM5             6.0    7.0    9.0    <5   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Fork Crow River
MAYM5            11.0   15.0   16.0    20   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
DELM5            16.5   17.5   18.5     9   10    7   <5   <5   <5
:Crow River
RKFM5            10.0   12.0   14.0    12   15    6    9   <5   <5
:Minnesota River
SAVM5           702.0  710.0  712.0    35   50   <5    7   <5   <5
:Snake River
PNCM5             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:St Croix River
STLM5            87.0   88.0   89.0    12   18    7    9    6   <5
:Mississippi River
ATKM5            12.0   15.0   18.0   >95   47   18   23   <5    6
FTRM5            10.0   12.5   26.0    49   41    6    7   <5   <5
SCOM5             9.0   10.0   11.0    13   16    6    9   <5   <5
MSPM5            16.0   16.5   17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
STPM5            14.0   15.0   17.0    10   18    6   13   <5    6
HSTM5            15.0   17.0   18.0    18   29    6   15   <5    7
RDWM5           680.5  681.5  683.0     7   15   <5   13   <5   <5
REDM5            14.0   15.0   16.0     6   13   <5   12   <5   <5
:Long Prairie River
LGPM5             7.0    8.0   10.0    13   20    6    6   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211327/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Prairie River
TACM5       7.4/    7.4/    7.4/    8.0/    8.5/    8.9/    9.5
:Long Prairie River
LGPM5       4.2/    4.2/    4.5/    5.4/    6.2/    7.4/    8.9
:Sauk River
STCM5       2.9/    2.9/    3.0/    3.4/    4.4/    5.2/    6.0
:South Fork Crow River
MAYM5       5.3/    5.3/    5.5/    6.6/   10.2/   12.5/   14.6
DELM5      10.0/   10.1/   10.1/   11.3/   14.5/   16.6/   18.3
:Crow River
RKFM5       4.7/    4.7/    4.8/    5.3/    8.2/   10.4/   13.4
:Minnesota River
SAVM5     696.0/  696.1/  697.9/  699.6/  704.0/  706.9/  708.7
:Snake River
PNCM5       6.3/    6.3/    6.3/    6.6/    7.6/    8.5/    9.0
:St Croix River
STLM5      84.6/   84.6/   84.6/   84.7/   85.9/   87.5/   89.3
:Mississippi River
ATKM5      13.1/   13.1/   13.1/   13.2/   14.0/   16.6/   17.7
FTRM5       9.6/    9.6/    9.6/   10.0/   10.9/   12.0/   14.1
SCOM5       7.7/    7.7/    7.7/    7.9/    8.6/    9.8/   10.7
MSPM5      10.0/   10.0/   10.0/   10.1/   12.4/   13.7/   15.7
STPM5       7.3/    7.3/    7.5/    8.2/   11.0/   14.3/   16.4
HSTM5       9.9/   10.0/   10.1/   11.0/   13.8/   16.4/   17.8
RDWM5     676.7/  676.7/  676.7/  676.8/  677.8/  680.2/  681.5
REDM5      10.1/   10.1/   10.1/   10.2/   10.8/   13.5/   14.8
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211327/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Prairie River
TACM5       4.6/    4.3/    3.9/    3.5/    3.3/    2.8/    2.7
:Long Prairie River
LGPM5       3.4/    3.1/    2.4/    1.9/    1.6/    1.3/    1.2
:Sauk River
STCM5       2.8/    2.4/    2.0/    1.6/    1.2/    1.0/    0.9
:South Fork Crow River
MAYM5       3.4/    3.1/    2.4/    1.7/    1.1/    0.9/    0.7
DELM5       7.7/    7.4/    6.5/    5.8/    5.4/    5.2/    5.0
:Crow River
RKFM5       3.6/    3.4/    2.9/    2.3/    2.1/    1.8/    1.7
:Minnesota River
SAVM5     690.3/  689.0/  688.1/  687.5/  687.4/  687.4/  687.4
:Snake River
PNCM5       3.3/    3.3/    3.1/    3.1/    3.0/    2.9/    2.9
:St Croix River
STLM5      77.6/   76.9/   76.3/   75.7/   75.4/   75.2/   75.1
:Mississippi River
ATKM5       7.7/    7.0/    5.4/    4.2/    3.5/    2.9/    2.7
FTRM5       6.8/    6.2/    5.3/    4.7/    4.4/    4.2/    4.1
SCOM5       6.0/    5.6/    5.0/    4.8/    4.5/    4.4/    4.3
MSPM5       6.7/    5.9/    5.4/    4.9/    4.6/    4.4/    4.3
STPM5       4.5/    3.9/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0
HSTM5       6.8/    6.1/    5.4/    4.7/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5
RDWM5     671.5/  670.5/  669.4/  668.1/  667.1/  667.0/  667.0
REDM5       5.5/    4.6/    3.7/    2.7/    2.2/    1.8/    1.8
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 221220
ESGDEV

DEVILS LAKE BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
719 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211219/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 9/30/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Devils Lake
DCBN8    1453.0/ 1453.0/ 1453.0/ 1453.1/ 1453.3/ 1453.7/ 1454.0
:Stump Lake
ESLN8    1453.0/ 1453.0/ 1453.0/ 1453.1/ 1453.3/ 1453.7/ 1454.0
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 221211
ESGRED

RED RIVER OF THE NORTH
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
710 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Wild Rice River
ABRN8            10.0   12.0   18.0    21   26   16   16   <5    6
:Red River
WHNN8            11.0   13.0   15.0    43   53   21   26   <5    7
HICN8            30.0   34.0   38.0     9   13   <5    6   <5   <5
FGON8            18.0   25.0   30.0    61   69   15   23    6   12
HILN8            26.0   32.0   37.5     9   16    6   10   <5    6
EGFM5            28.0   40.0   46.0    27   47    7   16   <5    6
OSLM5            26.0   30.0   36.0    35   56   26   46   <5    9
DRTN8            32.0   38.0   42.0    13   36    7   23   <5    7
PBNN8            39.0   44.0   49.0    20   38   10   35   <5   16

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211210/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Wild Rice River
ABRN8       1.1/    1.2/    1.8/    3.6/    9.0/   15.2/   18.6
:Red River
WHNN8       7.3/    7.7/    8.7/   10.5/   12.5/   13.6/   14.2
HICN8      13.7/   14.1/   16.3/   19.8/   25.7/   29.9/   31.8
FGON8      16.1/   16.2/   16.9/   19.3/   23.8/   28.3/   33.4
HILN8      11.7/   11.7/   11.8/   15.4/   21.3/   26.9/   33.9
EGFM5      20.0/   20.0/   20.0/   22.5/   30.8/   38.1/   43.1
OSLM5      17.5/   17.5/   17.6/   21.9/   31.4/   34.3/   35.8
DRTN8      19.9/   19.9/   19.9/   22.0/   28.0/   35.7/   40.3
PBNN8      31.6/   31.6/   31.6/   31.7/   37.3/   45.5/   48.2
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211210/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Wild Rice River
ABRN8       0.8/    0.7/    0.5/    0.1/   -0.4/   -0.4/   -0.4
:Red River
WHNN8       6.2/    5.7/    5.5/    4.6/    4.1/    3.9/    3.8
HICN8      12.7/   11.9/   11.7/   10.8/   10.4/   10.1/   10.0
FGON8      15.8/   15.3/   15.2/   14.7/   14.4/   14.2/   14.1
HILN8       8.9/    7.4/    6.4/    5.0/    4.4/    4.0/    3.7
EGFM5      17.8/   17.3/   16.6/   16.0/   15.7/   15.5/   15.4
OSLM5      11.7/   10.2/    8.5/    7.4/    6.8/    6.4/    5.7
DRTN8      14.3/   13.6/   12.2/   11.6/   11.1/   10.9/   10.8
PBNN8      20.7/   17.2/   14.3/   12.1/    9.9/    8.8/    8.5
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 212103
ESGMEC

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK...MERAMEC RIVER BASIN
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
402 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Meramec River
SEEM7            12.0   20.0   25.0    26   26   <5   <5   <5   <5
SLLM7            11.0   20.0   29.0    40   41    6    9   <5   <5
:Bourbeuse River
UNNM7            15.0   22.0   26.0    26   27   <5    6   <5   <5
:Meramec River
PCFM7            15.0   23.0   27.0    26   30   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Big River
BYRM7            16.0   20.0   28.0    40   43   20   18   <5   <5
:Meramec River
ERKM7            18.0   25.0   30.0    26   27   10   12   <5    6

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404212102/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Meramec River
SEEM7       1.9/    2.1/    3.9/    8.6/   12.4/   15.7/   18.0
SLLM7       2.8/    3.0/    5.9/    9.0/   14.7/   18.3/   21.9
:Bourbeuse River
UNNM7       1.9/    3.1/    6.3/   12.0/   15.9/   20.9/   22.9
:Meramec River
PCFM7      -0.2/   -0.0/    3.5/    9.3/   16.0/   21.2/   22.2
:Big River
BYRM7       5.2/    5.8/    7.8/   14.0/   18.7/   21.6/   22.7
:Meramec River
ERKM7       2.8/    3.6/    6.8/   12.2/   18.9/   25.4/   28.3
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404212102/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Meramec River
SEEM7       1.9/    1.9/    1.8/    1.7/    1.6/    1.5/    1.5
SLLM7       2.8/    2.7/    2.5/    2.3/    2.0/    1.9/    1.8
:Bourbeuse River
UNNM7       1.6/    1.5/    1.4/    1.2/    1.0/    0.9/    0.8
:Meramec River
PCFM7      -0.5/   -0.6/   -0.8/   -1.0/   -1.2/   -1.4/   -1.5
:Big River
BYRM7       2.8/    2.6/    2.3/    2.0/    1.8/    1.5/    1.5
:Meramec River
ERKM7       2.5/    2.4/    2.3/    2.1/    1.9/    1.8/    1.8
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 212059
ESGDES

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK...DES MOINES RIVER BASIN
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
358 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:East Fork Des Moines River
AGNI4            17.0   18.0   22.0     6   20   <5   10   <5   <5
DAKI4            20.0   24.0   28.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Boone River
WBCI4            14.0   17.0   19.0    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
GRMI4            14.0   16.0   17.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:North Raccoon River
EFWI4            19.0   21.0   23.0    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
PROI4            15.0   18.0   20.0    29   52    9   32   <5   18
:South Raccoon River
REDI4            20.0   24.0   27.0     6   10   <5    6   <5   <5
:Raccoon River
VNMI4            17.0   22.0   23.0    15   27   <5    6   <5   <5
DMWI4            36.0   38.0   40.0    15   26   <5   10   <5   <5
DEMI4            12.0   16.0   25.0    35   58   13   23   <5   <5
:North River
NRWI4            22.0   25.0   26.0     6   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Middle River
IDNI4            23.0   26.0   28.0     6    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South River
AKWI4            29.0   30.0   32.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar Creek
BSSI4            25.0   30.0   32.0     6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Des Moines River
JCKM5            12.0   14.0   16.0     7   18   <5    6   <5   <5
ESVI4             8.0   13.0   14.5    12   40   <5   <5   <5   <5
EMTI4            11.0   13.0   15.0    <5   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
HBTI4            10.0   13.0   14.0     6   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
FODI4            10.5   16.0   17.0     6   24   <5   <5   <5   <5
STRI4            21.0   25.0   27.0     6   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
DMOI4            23.0   26.0   30.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DESI4            24.0   26.0   30.0    24   44   10   21   <5   <5
EDYI4            61.0   68.0   70.0    15   41   <5   <5   <5   <5
OTMI4            11.0   15.0   19.0    21   46   <5    6   <5   <5
KEQI4            22.0   25.0   27.0     6   12   <5    6   <5   <5
SFLM7            18.0   22.0   25.0    21   43    9   13   <5    6

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404212058/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:East Fork Des Moines River
AGNI4       7.7/    8.1/   11.1/   12.6/   15.3/   16.7/   17.2
DAKI4       8.5/    8.9/   10.4/   11.9/   14.3/   15.8/   16.2
:Boone River
WBCI4       4.4/    5.5/    6.1/    8.0/    9.8/   12.9/   15.9
:Beaver Creek
GRMI4       4.2/    5.8/    7.0/    9.2/   11.0/   12.9/   14.1
:North Raccoon River
EFWI4       5.7/    6.8/    7.8/   10.2/   13.2/   15.5/   16.9
PROI4       5.5/    7.3/    8.7/   12.1/   15.7/   18.1/   20.4
:South Raccoon River
REDI4       3.8/    4.8/    5.9/    8.4/   10.9/   18.8/   22.9
:Raccoon River
VNMI4       4.6/    5.2/    6.6/   10.1/   14.2/   19.1/   21.2
DMWI4      24.1/   24.9/   27.0/   30.9/   34.3/   36.8/   38.4
DEMI4       2.8/    3.6/    5.9/   10.5/   13.6/   16.9/   19.0
:North River
NRWI4       7.9/    9.1/   12.8/   16.3/   20.6/   21.8/   22.3
:Middle River
IDNI4       8.7/   10.4/   12.8/   14.7/   17.5/   21.2/   23.5
:South River
AKWI4       6.8/    8.5/   11.2/   13.5/   20.3/   27.6/   29.0
:Cedar Creek
BSSI4       5.7/    7.9/    9.3/   13.2/   16.3/   21.3/   28.0
:Des Moines River
JCKM5       4.3/    4.5/    5.2/    6.5/    8.6/   11.6/   14.3
ESVI4       2.7/    2.9/    3.5/    4.4/    6.3/    9.3/   12.7
EMTI4       1.2/    1.6/    2.5/    4.1/    6.0/    8.6/   11.3
HBTI4       3.4/    3.6/    4.3/    5.5/    7.2/    9.5/   10.2
FODI4       4.3/    4.5/    5.3/    6.7/    8.4/   10.0/   11.8
STRI4       7.4/    8.5/   10.1/   12.3/   15.9/   19.6/   23.9
DMOI4      16.4/   16.9/   18.6/   19.7/   20.2/   20.5/   22.4
DESI4      12.9/   14.7/   17.8/   21.4/   24.1/   26.2/   28.1
EDYI4      52.5/   54.6/   57.0/   58.5/   60.4/   61.6/   65.2
OTMI4       4.6/    6.0/    7.9/    9.1/   10.8/   12.6/   16.4
KEQI4      12.7/   14.0/   15.5/   16.8/   18.4/   21.3/   24.9
SFLM7      10.0/   11.5/   13.7/   15.9/   17.6/   21.9/   24.5
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404212058/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:East Fork Des Moines River
AGNI4       7.1/    7.0/    6.8/    6.2/    5.5/    5.5/    5.5
DAKI4       8.2/    8.0/    7.6/    7.3/    7.2/    7.0/    7.0
:Boone River
WBCI4       2.2/    2.1/    1.9/    1.8/    1.6/    1.5/    1.4
:Beaver Creek
GRMI4       3.0/    2.8/    2.6/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4
:North Raccoon River
EFWI4       5.5/    5.3/    5.1/    4.9/    4.7/    4.6/    4.6
PROI4       4.5/    4.2/    3.9/    3.5/    3.2/    2.9/    2.7
:South Raccoon River
REDI4       3.2/    3.0/    2.9/    2.8/    2.6/    2.4/    2.3
:Raccoon River
VNMI4       3.3/    3.2/    2.8/    2.5/    2.2/    1.9/    1.8
DMWI4      22.6/   22.5/   22.1/   21.7/   21.3/   20.9/   20.8
DEMI4       1.2/    1.1/    0.8/    0.5/    0.2/    0.0/   -0.1
:North River
NRWI4       6.9/    6.5/    5.8/    5.5/    5.3/    5.2/    5.1
:Middle River
IDNI4       7.2/    7.0/    6.9/    6.6/    6.3/    6.2/    6.1
:South River
AKWI4       5.8/    5.7/    5.5/    5.4/    5.3/    5.2/    5.2
:Cedar Creek
BSSI4       5.6/    5.5/    5.4/    5.2/    5.1/    5.0/    5.0
:Des Moines River
JCKM5       4.3/    4.3/    4.2/    4.0/    3.8/    3.6/    3.4
ESVI4       2.7/    2.6/    2.5/    2.3/    2.1/    2.0/    1.8
EMTI4       1.0/    0.9/    0.8/    0.6/    0.4/    0.1/   -0.1
HBTI4       3.4/    3.2/    3.1/    2.9/    2.7/    2.6/    2.4
FODI4       4.0/    3.8/    3.6/    3.2/    3.0/    2.8/    2.7
STRI4       5.8/    5.7/    5.3/    4.9/    4.5/    4.2/    4.0
DMOI4      15.6/   15.4/   15.1/   14.9/   14.7/   14.6/   14.6
DESI4      11.3/   10.9/   10.4/    9.9/    9.4/    9.2/    9.1
EDYI4      50.6/   49.8/   49.3/   48.5/   48.0/   47.6/   47.5
OTMI4       3.3/    2.7/    2.3/    1.7/    1.3/    0.9/    0.8
KEQI4      11.8/   11.4/   10.9/   10.4/   10.1/    9.8/    9.7
SFLM7       8.4/    7.9/    7.2/    6.5/    6.0/    5.5/    5.4
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 212027
ESGRCK

ROCK RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
319 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Rock River
WATW3             5.5    6.0    6.5    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Crawfish River
MILW3             7.0    9.0   10.0    15   15    7    9    6   <5
:Rock River
JFFW3            10.0   11.0   13.0    13   13   12   10   <5   <5
FATW3            16.0   17.0   18.0     6    9    6   <5   <5   <5
NVLW3            10.0   11.0   11.5    20   21   10   12    9   12
AFTW3             9.0   11.1   12.2    16   20    6    9   <5   <5
:Turtle Creek
CLIW3             8.0   10.0   12.0     6    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pecatonica River
DARW3            13.5   15.0   16.0    24   24   16   21   10   15
:East Branch Pecatonica River
BCHW3            11.0   14.0   16.0    23   26   <5    6   <5   <5
:Pecatonica River
MTNW3            13.5   18.0   21.0    24   29   10   16   <5   <5
FEEI2            13.0   14.0   16.0    27   29   21   23   <5   <5
:Sugar River
ALBW3            12.0   13.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
BROW3             5.0    8.0   10.0    13   18    6    9   <5   <5
:Pecatonica River
SIRI2            12.0   14.0   15.5    21   23    7    9   <5    6
:Rock River
ROKI2            10.0   11.0   14.0    13   15    9   12   <5   <5
LATI2            10.0   11.0   14.0    12   13    9   12   <5   <5
RABI2             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kishwaukee River
BVDI2             9.0   10.0   12.0     9   10    9    7   <5   <5
:South Branch Kishwaukee River
DEKI2            10.0   11.0   12.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kishwaukee River
PRYI2            12.0   18.0   22.0    21   23   <5    6   <5   <5
:Rock River
BYRI2            13.0   16.0   18.0    10   15    6    6   <5   <5
DXRI2            16.0   18.0   20.0    12   15    6   12   <5    7
CMOI2            10.0   11.0   12.0    15   18   12   15    9   12
JOSI2            12.0   14.0   16.5    29   32   16   24   12   15
:Green River
GENI2            15.0   16.5   18.0    10   12   <5    6   <5   <5
:Rock River
MLII2            12.0   13.0   14.0    24   32   18   24   12   15

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404212019/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Rock River
WATW3       3.7/    3.7/    3.7/    3.8/    3.9/    5.1/    5.4
:Crawfish River
MILW3       5.3/    5.3/    5.3/    5.4/    5.6/    8.9/   11.2
:Rock River
JFFW3       8.2/    8.2/    8.2/    8.2/    8.5/   11.5/   12.8
FATW3      13.9/   13.9/   13.9/   13.9/   14.3/   15.8/   17.4
NVLW3       9.6/    9.6/    9.6/    9.6/    9.9/   11.4/   13.0
AFTW3       8.2/    8.2/    8.2/    8.2/    8.6/   10.5/   12.6
:Turtle Creek
CLIW3       3.9/    4.0/    4.3/    5.2/    6.1/    7.0/    9.3
:Pecatonica River
DARW3       3.1/    3.7/    4.7/    6.4/   12.7/   16.4/   17.1
:East Branch Pecatonica River
BCHW3       5.1/    5.2/    6.6/    9.2/   10.5/   13.4/   14.0
:Pecatonica River
MTNW3       6.4/    6.4/    6.6/    8.3/   13.9/   18.1/   19.0
FEEI2       5.8/    6.2/    7.0/    9.0/   13.5/   15.1/   15.9
:Sugar River
ALBW3       4.4/    4.4/    4.6/    6.0/    7.0/    9.8/   11.0
BROW3       1.6/    1.6/    1.9/    2.7/    3.7/    5.8/    9.1
:Pecatonica River
SIRI2       6.6/    6.6/    7.1/    8.4/   11.4/   13.3/   14.6
:Rock River
ROKI2       6.7/    6.7/    6.7/    6.8/    8.4/   11.2/   13.9
LATI2       6.7/    6.7/    6.7/    7.0/    8.2/   10.9/   13.1
RABI2       3.3/    3.3/    3.3/    3.4/    3.7/    5.3/    6.5
:Kishwaukee River
BVDI2       2.0/    2.2/    3.4/    4.5/    6.2/    9.5/   13.5
:South Branch Kishwaukee River
DEKI2       3.4/    3.9/    4.8/    6.1/    7.9/    9.0/    9.7
:Kishwaukee River
PRYI2       6.3/    6.4/    7.7/    9.1/   11.8/   14.0/   19.3
:Rock River
BYRI2       8.4/    8.4/    8.4/    9.1/   11.0/   13.7/   17.1
DXRI2       9.8/    9.8/    9.8/   10.5/   12.7/   17.5/   19.8
CMOI2       5.2/    5.2/    5.2/    5.7/    7.6/   12.0/   13.1
JOSI2       8.5/    8.5/    8.5/    9.6/   12.6/   17.4/   18.1
:Green River
GENI2       4.3/    4.6/    5.9/    8.8/   12.1/   15.1/   18.1
:Rock River
MLII2       9.6/    9.6/    9.7/   10.3/   12.0/   14.9/   16.5
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404212019/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Rock River
WATW3       2.1/    2.1/    1.7/    1.5/    1.3/    1.2/    1.2
:Crawfish River
MILW3       2.5/    2.4/    2.2/    2.1/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9
:Rock River
JFFW3       4.4/    4.1/    3.7/    3.5/    3.4/    3.3/    3.3
FATW3      11.5/   11.3/   11.0/   10.8/   10.7/   10.6/   10.6
NVLW3       6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2
AFTW3       5.0/    4.5/    3.7/    3.4/    3.1/    2.9/    2.8
:Turtle Creek
CLIW3       3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.4/    3.4
:Pecatonica River
DARW3       2.7/    2.7/    2.5/    2.3/    2.3/    2.2/    2.1
:East Branch Pecatonica River
BCHW3       4.5/    4.4/    4.3/    4.1/    4.1/    4.0/    4.0
:Pecatonica River
MTNW3       5.5/    5.4/    4.9/    4.5/    4.3/    4.1/    4.0
FEEI2       4.6/    4.4/    3.7/    3.3/    3.0/    2.9/    2.8
:Sugar River
ALBW3       3.9/    3.8/    3.7/    3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5
BROW3       1.1/    1.0/    0.9/    0.8/    0.6/    0.6/    0.6
:Pecatonica River
SIRI2       5.5/    5.1/    4.6/    4.2/    3.8/    3.7/    3.6
:Rock River
ROKI2       4.4/    3.8/    3.3/    2.9/    2.6/    2.5/    2.4
LATI2       4.9/    4.5/    4.2/    3.8/    3.6/    3.5/    3.4
RABI2       2.9/    2.7/    2.6/    2.4/    2.2/    2.2/    2.1
:Kishwaukee River
BVDI2       1.6/    1.6/    1.5/    1.3/    1.2/    1.0/    1.0
:South Branch Kishwaukee River
DEKI2       3.0/    2.9/    2.9/    2.8/    2.7/    2.6/    2.5
:Kishwaukee River
PRYI2       6.0/    5.9/    5.8/    5.6/    5.5/    5.3/    5.3
:Rock River
BYRI2       6.5/    5.9/    5.6/    5.2/    5.0/    4.8/    4.7
DXRI2       8.7/    8.5/    8.3/    8.1/    8.0/    7.9/    7.8
CMOI2       4.1/    3.7/    3.4/    3.1/    2.9/    2.8/    2.7
JOSI2       6.5/    5.7/    5.0/    4.6/    4.2/    4.0/    3.9
:Green River
GENI2       3.3/    3.3/    3.0/    2.7/    2.3/    1.9/    1.5
:Rock River
MLII2       8.7/    8.5/    8.1/    7.9/    7.8/    7.7/    7.7
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 211935
ESGMEN

MENOMINEE RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
235 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Michigamme River
WLKM4             9.0   10.0   12.0    13   21    6   12   <5   <5
:Paint River
CRYM4             7.0    8.0    9.5    10   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Menominee River
FLOW3             9.0   11.0   13.0    32   18    6   <5   <5   <5
NIAW3            13.0   15.0   16.0    30   18    9   <5   <5   <5
VLCM4            15.0   17.0   19.0    15   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
MCAW3            15.0   18.0   19.0   >95   40   10    6   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211935/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Michigamme River
WLKM4       7.6/    7.6/    7.7/    8.2/    8.6/    9.4/   10.5
:Paint River
CRYM4       5.6/    5.6/    5.6/    5.8/    6.3/    7.3/    7.6
:Menominee River
FLOW3       8.1/    8.2/    8.2/    8.5/    9.3/   10.5/   11.3
NIAW3      12.3/   12.4/   12.4/   12.5/   13.2/   14.9/   15.5
VLCM4      13.5/   13.5/   13.6/   13.7/   14.5/   16.3/   17.1
MCAW3      16.1/   16.1/   16.1/   16.2/   16.8/   18.1/   18.6
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211935/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Michigamme River
WLKM4       3.3/    3.2/    3.0/    2.9/    2.9/    2.8/    2.8
:Paint River
CRYM4       2.9/    2.9/    2.8/    2.7/    2.6/    2.5/    2.5
:Menominee River
FLOW3       4.2/    4.1/    4.0/    3.9/    3.8/    3.7/    3.6
NIAW3       6.7/    6.6/    6.4/    6.2/    6.0/    5.9/    5.7
VLCM4       6.7/    6.5/    6.3/    6.2/    6.0/    5.9/    5.8
MCAW3      10.3/   10.1/    9.9/    9.8/    9.6/    9.5/    9.5
.END

IN TABLE 4 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 4--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211935/DRD+6/DVD90/QTVFZXT/QTVFZX9/QTVFZXH
.B1 /QTVFZX5/QTVFZXG/QTVFZX1/QTVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Michigamme River
WLKM4      2.06/   2.09/   2.13/   2.36/   2.59/   3.01/   3.67
:Paint River
CRYM4      3.56/   3.58/   3.62/   3.84/   4.55/   6.20/   6.61
:Menominee River
FLOW3      6.82/   6.85/   6.93/   7.54/   8.93/  11.38/  13.13
NIAW3     10.55/  10.60/  10.65/  10.95/  12.33/  16.22/  17.73
VLCM4     12.61/  12.66/  12.72/  13.08/  14.69/  18.69/  20.68
MCAW3     16.59/  16.64/  16.72/  16.94/  18.80/  22.81/  24.59
:Michigamme River
CYFM4      3.25/   3.27/   3.30/   3.67/   4.23/   5.08/   6.09
.END


IN TABLE 5 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOWS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 5--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211935/DRD+6/DVD90/QTVFZNT/QTVFZN9/QTVFZNH
.B1 /QTVFZN5/QTVFZNG/QTVFZN1/QTVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Michigamme River
WLKM4      0.28/   0.26/   0.22/   0.19/   0.18/   0.16/   0.16
:Paint River
CRYM4      0.53/   0.50/   0.46/   0.42/   0.39/   0.37/   0.36
:Menominee River
FLOW3      1.62/   1.55/   1.44/   1.34/   1.25/   1.18/   1.14
NIAW3      2.32/   2.19/   2.02/   1.90/   1.77/   1.67/   1.60
VLCM4      2.65/   2.38/   2.20/   2.06/   1.90/   1.81/   1.74
MCAW3      3.55/   3.21/   3.00/   2.77/   2.61/   2.48/   2.42
:Michigamme River
CYFM4      0.55/   0.52/   0.44/   0.40/   0.38/   0.35/   0.33
.END



:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 211928
ESGCIW

IOWA RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
227 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Cedar River
LANM5            18.0   20.0   22.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ASTM5            15.0   18.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Turtle Creek
TRCM5            10.5   12.0   14.0    21   20   15   16   10   10
:Cedar River
CCYI4            12.0   15.0   18.0    20   18   10    9   <5   <5
JANI4            13.0   15.0   18.0     6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:West Fork Cedar River
FNHI4            17.0   18.0   20.0    15   12   12    9   <5   <5
:Winnebago River
MCWI4            10.0   14.5   15.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Shell Rock River
SHRI4            13.5   18.0   20.0    23   16    6   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
NHRI4            12.0   13.0   14.0    10    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar River
CEDI4            88.0   90.0   93.0    67   50   30   26    9    9
ALOI4            13.0   19.0   21.0    23   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
VINI4            15.0   18.0   19.0    13   10   <5    6   <5   <5
CIDI4            12.0   14.0   16.0    18   16   10    9    6    6
CNEI4            13.0   15.0   16.5    58   46   16   13   <5   <5
:Iowa River
ROWI4            12.5   15.0   17.0    27   36   <5    6   <5   <5
MIWI4            19.0   23.0   26.0     7    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
MROI4            14.0   15.5   18.5    67   67   49   52    7   10
IOWI4            22.0   23.0   25.0     6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:English River
KALI4            14.0   16.0   18.0    35   35   24   27   16   15
:Iowa River
LNTI4            15.0   16.5   18.0    16   21   15   16   12   13
CJTI4            19.0   22.0   23.0    36   33   13   10    9    9
WAPI4            20.0   22.0   25.0    47   44   21   29    9    9

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211927/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Cedar River
LANM5      12.1/   12.5/   13.7/   14.5/   15.9/   17.0/   17.4
ASTM5       5.7/    6.0/    7.1/    8.1/   10.2/   12.8/   13.9
:Turtle Creek
TRCM5       3.7/    4.6/    6.4/    8.1/   10.4/   14.7/   15.7
:Cedar River
CCYI4       4.2/    4.9/    6.2/    7.6/   10.7/   15.7/   18.6
JANI4       4.1/    4.1/    5.0/    7.0/    8.9/   12.2/   14.9
:West Fork Cedar River
FNHI4       9.0/    9.2/   10.6/   12.7/   15.7/   18.6/   19.6
:Winnebago River
MCWI4       4.5/    4.5/    5.3/    6.1/    7.0/    8.8/   10.7
:Shell Rock River
SHRI4       9.7/    9.9/   10.6/   11.7/   13.5/   15.6/   18.1
:Beaver Creek
NHRI4       4.7/    4.7/    5.5/    7.2/   10.6/   12.2/   13.3
:Cedar River
CEDI4      84.6/   84.7/   85.2/   88.9/   90.7/   93.0/   95.7
ALOI4       8.3/    8.3/    8.5/   11.1/   12.8/   15.9/   19.4
VINI4       8.6/    8.6/    9.1/   12.1/   13.9/   16.4/   18.5
CIDI4       6.7/    6.7/    7.0/    9.4/   11.3/   14.6/   17.7
CNEI4      10.3/   10.3/   11.2/   13.3/   14.6/   15.8/   16.8
:Iowa River
ROWI4       5.4/    7.3/    9.5/   10.7/   12.8/   13.9/   14.9
MIWI4      11.8/   12.1/   13.0/   16.0/   17.0/   18.4/   20.0
IOWI4      12.2/   12.8/   15.1/   16.1/   18.5/   19.2/   24.2
MROI4       9.3/   10.3/   13.4/   15.5/   17.3/   18.4/   19.4
:English River
KALI4       6.2/    6.7/    8.2/   11.7/   16.1/   20.2/   22.1
:Iowa River
LNTI4       7.2/    7.7/   10.0/   12.1/   13.4/   18.1/   19.8
CJTI4      14.3/   14.3/   15.7/   18.0/   20.1/   23.1/   26.7
WAPI4      15.7/   15.7/   17.7/   19.8/   21.9/   25.0/   27.4
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211927/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Cedar River
LANM5       9.5/    9.4/    9.4/    9.3/    9.3/    9.3/    9.2
ASTM5       3.8/    3.7/    3.6/    3.5/    3.4/    3.3/    3.2
:Turtle Creek
TRCM5       2.1/    2.1/    2.0/    1.9/    1.8/    1.7/    1.7
:Cedar River
CCYI4       2.6/    2.5/    2.4/    2.2/    2.1/    2.1/    2.0
JANI4       1.9/    1.7/    1.6/    1.4/    1.3/    1.2/    1.2
:West Fork Cedar River
FNHI4       6.6/    6.5/    6.4/    6.2/    6.1/    6.1/    6.0
:Winnebago River
MCWI4       3.7/    3.5/    3.4/    3.3/    3.2/    3.1/    3.0
:Shell Rock River
SHRI4       8.5/    8.3/    8.1/    8.0/    7.8/    7.7/    7.7
:Beaver Creek
NHRI4       3.8/    3.5/    3.3/    3.1/    2.9/    2.7/    2.7
:Cedar River
CEDI4      79.8/   79.6/   79.3/   79.1/   78.9/   78.8/   78.8
ALOI4       6.4/    6.2/    6.1/    5.9/    5.8/    5.7/    5.7
VINI4       4.2/    3.9/    3.6/    3.0/    2.8/    2.4/    2.4
CIDI4       4.7/    4.5/    4.3/    4.0/    3.9/    3.8/    3.7
CNEI4       7.1/    6.8/    6.5/    6.0/    5.9/    5.6/    5.5
:Iowa River
ROWI4       4.6/    4.4/    4.2/    3.8/    3.6/    3.4/    3.4
MIWI4      11.0/   10.8/   10.6/   10.3/   10.1/    9.9/    9.8
IOWI4      10.8/   10.7/   10.5/    9.8/    9.1/    9.1/    9.1
MROI4       7.9/    7.7/    7.4/    6.9/    6.5/    6.1/    6.0
:English River
KALI4       4.1/    4.0/    3.7/    3.3/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1
:Iowa River
LNTI4       6.1/    5.8/    5.3/    4.6/    3.8/    3.8/    3.8
CJTI4      11.5/   11.1/   10.5/   10.0/    9.6/    9.1/    9.0
WAPI4      13.1/   12.5/   11.9/   11.4/   11.0/   10.4/   10.3
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 211820
ESGTIA

MAQUOKETA..WAPSIPINICON..SKUNK RIVER BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
119 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Maquoketa River
MCHI4            14.0   17.0   20.0    21   23   13   13    6    7
MAQI4            24.0   26.0   28.5    13   18   10   10    7    9
:Wapsipinicon River
IDPI4            12.0   13.0   15.0    12   13   10   10    9    9
ANSI4            14.0   15.5   19.0    29   24   21   20    9    9
DEWI4            11.0   11.5   12.5    60   63   55   58   24   32
:South Skunk River
AMEI4            12.5   16.0   16.5     7    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Squaw Creek
AMWI4            10.0   14.0   15.5    20   20    6    6   <5   <5
:South Skunk River
AESI4            21.5   23.5   24.5    20   21    6    6   <5   <5
CFXI4            18.0   19.0   21.0    12   12    7    7   <5   <5
OOAI4            24.5   28.5   30.0     7    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:North Skunk River
SIGI4            16.0   18.0   21.0    35   46   23   30    9    9
:Skunk River
AGSI4            15.0   17.0   20.0    27   41   18   24   10   13

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211819/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Maquoketa River
MCHI4       5.2/    6.0/    7.5/    9.8/   13.8/   18.8/   21.7
MAQI4      12.3/   12.6/   14.2/   18.2/   21.5/   26.4/   31.2
:Wapsipinicon River
IDPI4       6.6/    6.7/    6.9/    8.1/    9.8/   14.7/   19.6
ANSI4       9.5/    9.5/    9.8/   12.5/   15.1/   19.1/   23.8
DEWI4       8.9/    9.0/    9.6/   11.9/   12.5/   13.1/   13.5
:South Skunk River
AMEI4       4.4/    5.4/    6.6/    8.2/    9.7/   11.7/   15.3
:Squaw Creek
AMWI4       3.3/    3.8/    4.9/    6.3/    8.5/   12.9/   14.1
:South Skunk River
AESI4      13.2/   14.2/   16.0/   18.4/   20.9/   23.0/   24.4
CFXI4       9.1/    9.7/   11.0/   14.1/   16.7/   18.2/   20.4
OOAI4      10.0/   10.8/   12.9/   18.5/   21.0/   23.8/   25.5
:North Skunk River
SIGI4       6.2/    8.8/   11.2/   14.2/   17.6/   20.7/   23.1
:Skunk River
AGSI4       3.5/    5.2/    7.0/   11.0/   15.9/   20.3/   21.7
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211819/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Maquoketa River
MCHI4       4.0/    4.0/    3.8/    3.7/    3.6/    3.5/    3.5
MAQI4      11.5/   11.3/   11.0/   10.6/   10.3/   10.1/   10.1
:Wapsipinicon River
IDPI4       5.1/    5.1/    4.8/    4.7/    4.6/    4.5/    4.4
ANSI4       5.8/    5.6/    5.1/    4.9/    4.8/    4.7/    4.6
DEWI4       6.0/    5.7/    5.2/    4.7/    4.5/    4.2/    4.0
:South Skunk River
AMEI4       3.6/    3.4/    3.3/    3.0/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4
:Squaw Creek
AMWI4       1.8/    1.7/    1.6/    1.5/    1.3/    0.8/   -0.2
:South Skunk River
AESI4       9.9/    9.6/    9.3/    8.9/    8.5/    8.4/    8.2
CFXI4       7.8/    7.6/    7.5/    7.2/    6.8/    6.6/    6.4
OOAI4       9.5/    9.1/    8.6/    8.0/    7.4/    7.0/    6.9
:North Skunk River
SIGI4       5.3/    5.0/    4.6/    4.3/    3.8/    3.6/    3.6
:Skunk River
AGSI4       2.6/    2.4/    2.1/    1.8/    1.3/    1.1/    0.9
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 211806
ESGMIN

MINNESOTA RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
105 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Little Minnesota River
PVRS2            17.0   22.0   24.0     9   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Minnesota River
BSLM5           971.5  973.0  975.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Redwood River
MSHM5            14.0   15.0   16.5     6    6   <5    6   <5   <5
RWDM5             6.0   15.0   16.0     6   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cottonwood River
NWUM5            11.0   13.0   16.0     7   21   <5   10   <5   <5
:Minnesota River
MVOM5            14.0   16.0   17.5    13   36   <5   12   <5   <5
GTEM5           888.5  893.5  896.5     6   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
MNKM5            22.0   25.0   30.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
HENM5           732.0  736.0  739.5    <5   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
JDNM5            25.0   28.0   34.0    12   23   <5    7   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211805/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Little Minnesota River
PVRS2      10.3/   10.3/   10.3/   11.8/   15.1/   17.0/   19.8
:Redwood River
MSHM5       7.0/    7.0/    7.5/    8.8/   10.3/   13.1/   15.1
RWDM5       1.8/    1.8/    2.5/    3.0/    4.4/    5.7/    7.4
:Cottonwood River
NWUM5       3.7/    4.6/    5.3/    6.7/    8.9/   10.9/   13.0
:Minnesota River
MVOM5       5.5/    5.6/    7.6/   10.0/   11.5/   14.7/   15.7
GTEM5     883.7/  883.8/  884.5/  885.3/  885.8/  887.4/  888.5
MNKM5       6.3/    7.2/    9.4/   12.2/   15.5/   19.1/   19.5
HENM5     718.6/  719.4/  722.6/  725.3/  728.3/  731.1/  731.6
JDNM5      10.0/   10.8/   14.6/   18.4/   23.2/   25.7/   26.3
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211805/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Little Minnesota River
PVRS2       9.7/    9.7/    9.7/    9.7/    9.7/    9.7/    9.7
:Redwood River
MSHM5       7.0/    6.9/    6.8/    6.7/    6.6/    6.6/    6.6
RWDM5       1.8/    1.7/    1.6/    1.5/    1.3/    1.2/    1.2
:Cottonwood River
NWUM5       3.2/    3.1/    2.7/    2.3/    2.0/    1.5/    1.0
:Minnesota River
MVOM5       4.0/    3.9/    3.3/    2.8/    2.3/    1.9/    1.4
GTEM5     882.8/  882.7/  882.1/  881.9/  881.6/  881.4/  881.0
MNKM5       5.7/    4.3/    3.3/    2.7/    2.1/    1.7/    1.5
HENM5     717.9/  715.5/  714.2/  713.4/  712.3/  711.6/  711.5
JDNM5       9.5/    7.2/    6.1/    5.3/    4.6/    4.1/    3.9
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 211745
ESGNLM

NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1244 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Boardman River
MYFM4             7.0    9.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Au Sable River
RDOM4             7.0    8.0    9.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Manistee River
SHRM4            15.0   16.0   17.0    33    9   12   <5    7   <5
:Rifle River
STRM4             6.0   11.0   13.0    46   29   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211744/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Boardman River
MYFM4       4.2/    4.2/    4.5/    4.8/    5.0/    5.4/    5.5
:Au Sable River
RDOM4       4.8/    4.8/    4.9/    4.9/    5.4/    5.8/    6.3
:Manistee River
SHRM4      13.7/   13.7/   13.9/   14.7/   15.4/   16.7/   17.2
:Rifle River
STRM4       3.5/    3.6/    4.9/    5.9/    7.6/    8.7/    9.7
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0421 Z DH12 /DC1404211744/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Boardman River
MYFM4       3.7/    3.7/    3.6/    3.5/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4
:Au Sable River
RDOM4       3.4/    3.3/    3.1/    3.0/    2.9/    2.8/    2.7
:Manistee River
SHRM4      12.3/   12.2/   12.1/   11.9/   11.8/   11.7/   11.7
:Rifle River
STRM4       1.7/    1.6/    1.4/    1.3/    1.2/    1.2/    1.1
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






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