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000
FGUS63 KMSR 051650
ESGMSR

UPPER MIDWEST - SPRING OUTLOOK DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
CHANHASSEN MN
1050 AM CST THURSDAY MAR 5 2015



    FOR A LINK TO THE NCRFC 2015 SPRING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK... WHICH
    CONTAINS SEVERAL GRAPHICS THAT RELATE TO THE SNOWMELT SEASON
    ANTECEDENT AND CURRENT HYDROMETEORLOGIC CONDITIONS... REFER TO
    THE NCRFC WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/NCRFC



    THIS DOCUMENT ALSO REFERS TO INFORMATION FROM THE FOLLOWING:

    UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS)
    REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS (MRCC AND HPRCC)
    US DROUGHT MONITOR (NIDIS) AND
    NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)



      ******************************

      SPRING 2015 NCRFC AREA SUMMARY

      ******************************

THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAVE SEEN A FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS CROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI...HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES BASINS.  PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ONE INCH OR LESS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH
AMOUNTS INCREASING TO NEAR TWO INCHES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  THESE
AMOUNTS ARE NEAR WHAT CAN BE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAVE BEEN MUCH COLDER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY.  THIS HAS PRESERVED WHAT SNOWPACK
HAS ACCUMULATED TO THIS POINT IN THE SEASON.  THE COLD TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALSO KEPT THE GROUND FROZEN ALL THE WAY DOWN TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.  THIS FROZEN GROUND SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IF
A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT COMES BEFORE THE SOIL CAN THAW IN MISSOURI
AND ILLINOIS.  RAIN ON FROZEN GROUND CAN BE A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
THREAT.

AS ALWAYS...ICE JAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE SPRING MELT
PERIOD... ICE JAMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALL WINTER LONG AS
TEMPERATURE PATTERNS HAVE VARIED ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING SEVERAL
TIMES THIS WINTER.  THE RECENT COLD WAVE HAS ALLOWED ICE TO REFORM
ON MANY RIVERS DEEP INTO MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.

DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI BASIN.  THIS WILL INHIBIT
RUNOFF PRODUCTION FROM SNOWMELT AND SPRING RAINFALL.

ALL IN ALL...THE OUTLOOK FOR SPRING FLOODING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
SINCE THE REPORT TWO WEEKS AGO.  PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
WATERSHEDS IN THE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAVE
ACCUMULATED A SNOWPACK AND HAVE A SLIGHTLY INCREASED RISK FOR
FLOODING.  IN ADDITION...THE UPPER ILLINOIS RIVER AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES HAVE EXPERIENCED PERIODIC FLOODING THIS WINTER AND STILL
RETAIN A SNOWPACK.  THIS AREA OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA HAVE
A GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF FLOODING THIS SPRING.  ELSEWHERE
IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI WATERSHED THE RISK FOR FLOODING IS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 50 PERCENT.

THE HUDSON BAY DRAINAGES OF MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA ARE IMPACTED
BY DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK.  THE
CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THIS REGION IS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT.

THE FOLLOWING BASIN SYNOPSES ARE THE SAME AS THE FEBRUARY OUTLOOK
AND INCLUDE DISCUSSION OF FALL AND WINTER HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL OUTLOOK FOR THE SPRING OF 2015.


*******************

HUDSON BAY DRAINAGE

*******************

***  SOURIS RIVER BASIN

THE FALL SEASON RECORDED NEAR AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN BASIN
AND BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST.  FALL TEMPERATURES WERE
BELOW NORMAL...LIKELY PRODUCING BELOW AVERAGE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.  TOPSOIL
MOISTURE IS CONSIDERED NEAR NORMAL WITH SUBSOIL MOISTURE BEING ABOVE
NORMAL.  SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS BECOME SOMEWHAT DRIER IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE BASIN.  WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE WEST.  THE WINTER HAS SEEN
SEVERAL THAW PERIODS AND THUS VISUAL ACCOUNTS OF THE BASIN SNOWPACK
INDICATE BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS.

***  DEVILS LAKE BASIN

FALL SEASON PRECIPITATION WAS WELL BELOW NORMAL.  WINTER
PRECIPITATION TO DATE HAS ALSO BEEN BELOW NORMAL.  CURRENT SNOWPACK
CONDITIONS INDICATE WATER CONTENTS NEAR ONE INCH IN THE NORTHERN
WATERSHEDS TO ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA.  THE
LACK OF SNOW COVER AND NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WINTER HAS ALLOWED THE SOIL TO FREEZE TO NEAR HISTORICAL AVERAGES OF
2 TO 4 FEET.  AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A REDUCED CHANCE OF HAVING
TOTAL SEASONAL INFLOW NEAR THE HISTORICAL NORMAL.

***  RED RIVER OF THE NORTH RIVER BASIN

LATE SUMMER AND FALL RECORDED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE HIGHEST DEFICITS FROM NORMAL IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS.  THE WINTER SEASON HAS CONTINUED WITH
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION WITH THE LARGEST DEFICITS RECORDED IN
EASTCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.  THERE HAS BEEN LESS THAN 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION.  THE LACK OF SNOW
COVER AND NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER HAS
ALLOWED THE SOIL TO FREEZE TO NEAR HISTORICAL AVERAGES OF 2 TO 4
FEET.  WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVING SET IN DURING THE FALL AND
BELOW NORMAL WINTER PRECIPITATION...THE CHANCES FOR SPRING FLOODING
ARE WELL BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE BASIN.

********************

GREAT LAKES DRAINAGE

********************

THE FALL SEASON OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE WESTERN
UPPER PENINSULA TO GREEN BAY...EASTWARD TO SAULT STE. MARIE AND
ALPENA.  NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION WAS RECORDED FROM SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TO SAGINAW...DETROIT AND NORTHERN INDIANA.  SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS ARE CONSIDER TO BE WETTER THAN AVERAGE IN THIS AREA.
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA OBSERVED BELOW NORMAL FALL PRECIPITATION AND
THUS HAS BELOW AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.

THE WINTER SEASON HAS BROUGHT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION TO MOST AREAS.  THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN... THE UPPER PENINSULA AND AREAS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE SEEN ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CATEGORY.  SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
MEASUREMENTS INDICATE ABOVE AVERAGE AMOUNT OF WATER IN THE SNOWPACK
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE AREAS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

WINTER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BELOW AVERAGE...PUSHING FROST DEPTHS
TO NEAR 3 FEET IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WHILE REPORTED
FROST DEPTHS IN LOWER MICHIGAN ARE 1 TO 2 FEET.

CURRENT NATURAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW
NORMAL AS REPORTED BY THE USGS. AT THIS TIME...FLOOD RISK IS
CONSIDERED BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAKE SUPERIOR BASINS IN MINNESOTA
AND NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ELEVATED ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE.  THIS ELEVATED
RISK IS FOR FLOODING AT THE MINOR FLOOD LEVEL.

********************************

UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DRAINAGE

********************************

FALL PRECIPITATION WAS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
WISCONSIN...ILLINOIS...IOWA...AND EASTERN MISSOURI.  FALL
PRECIPITATION WAS BELOW NORMAL IN MINNESOTA.  AT THE ONSET OF
WINTER...DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAD BEEN ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE BASIN IN MINNESOTA WHILE NEAR AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS PREVAILED ELSEWHERE.  STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS AS REPORTED
BY THE USGS WERE NEAR NORMAL FOR MINNESOTA...IOWA... AND MISSOURI
WHILE BEING ABOVE NORMAL IN ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN.

WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A SMALL PORTION OF CENTRAL IOWA AND THE HEADWATER
BASINS OF THE CHIPPEWA AND WISCONSIN RIVERS.  REPORTED SNOW WATER
CONTENTS ARE 3 TO 4 INCHES IN EXTREME NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
GENERALLY 1 INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE.  ISOLATED AREAS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA SHOW AROUND 2 INCHES.  ALL IN ALL THE
SNOWPACK IS WELL BELOW HISTORICAL AVERAGES.

WINTER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL FOR LONG
PERIODS SINCE NOVEMBER.  FEBRUARY IS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING
A RELATIVELY WARM JANUARY.  AS A RESULT...SOIL FROST IS AGAIN
BUILDING ACROSS THE BASIN WITH 2 TO 3 FEET REPORTED IN MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN 1 TO 2 FEET IN IOWA AND UP TO 1 FOOT IN ILLINOIS...INDIANA
AND MISSOURI.  THESE REPORTS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WHEN LOOKING AT ALL THESE FACTORS...THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS SPRING ARE LOW.  MUCH OF THE BASIN HAS
NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL RISK FOR FLOODING.  THE KANKAKEE AND UPPER
ILLINOIS RIVER HAVE A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED RISK FOR FLOODING DUE TO
WETTER SOIL MOISTURE CONDITION FROM PERIODIC MELTS AND HAVING 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW WATER CONTENT.

$$

NNNN





000
FGUS63 KMSR 051650
ESGMSR

UPPER MIDWEST - SPRING OUTLOOK DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER
CHANHASSEN MN
1050 AM CST THURSDAY MAR 5 2015



    FOR A LINK TO THE NCRFC 2015 SPRING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK... WHICH
    CONTAINS SEVERAL GRAPHICS THAT RELATE TO THE SNOWMELT SEASON
    ANTECEDENT AND CURRENT HYDROMETEORLOGIC CONDITIONS... REFER TO
    THE NCRFC WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/NCRFC



    THIS DOCUMENT ALSO REFERS TO INFORMATION FROM THE FOLLOWING:

    UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS)
    REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS (MRCC AND HPRCC)
    US DROUGHT MONITOR (NIDIS) AND
    NATIONAL OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING CENTER (NOHRSC)



      ******************************

      SPRING 2015 NCRFC AREA SUMMARY

      ******************************

THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAVE SEEN A FEW WEATHER SYSTEMS CROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI...HUDSON BAY AND GREAT LAKES BASINS.  PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN ONE INCH OR LESS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH
AMOUNTS INCREASING TO NEAR TWO INCHES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.  THESE
AMOUNTS ARE NEAR WHAT CAN BE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAVE BEEN MUCH COLDER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE END OF FEBRUARY.  THIS HAS PRESERVED WHAT SNOWPACK
HAS ACCUMULATED TO THIS POINT IN THE SEASON.  THE COLD TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALSO KEPT THE GROUND FROZEN ALL THE WAY DOWN TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.  THIS FROZEN GROUND SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IF
A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT COMES BEFORE THE SOIL CAN THAW IN MISSOURI
AND ILLINOIS.  RAIN ON FROZEN GROUND CAN BE A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD
THREAT.

AS ALWAYS...ICE JAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE SPRING MELT
PERIOD... ICE JAMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALL WINTER LONG AS
TEMPERATURE PATTERNS HAVE VARIED ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING SEVERAL
TIMES THIS WINTER.  THE RECENT COLD WAVE HAS ALLOWED ICE TO REFORM
ON MANY RIVERS DEEP INTO MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.

DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI BASIN.  THIS WILL INHIBIT
RUNOFF PRODUCTION FROM SNOWMELT AND SPRING RAINFALL.

ALL IN ALL...THE OUTLOOK FOR SPRING FLOODING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
SINCE THE REPORT TWO WEEKS AGO.  PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
WATERSHEDS IN THE FAVORABLE AREAS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAVE
ACCUMULATED A SNOWPACK AND HAVE A SLIGHTLY INCREASED RISK FOR
FLOODING.  IN ADDITION...THE UPPER ILLINOIS RIVER AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES HAVE EXPERIENCED PERIODIC FLOODING THIS WINTER AND STILL
RETAIN A SNOWPACK.  THIS AREA OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA HAVE
A GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF FLOODING THIS SPRING.  ELSEWHERE
IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI WATERSHED THE RISK FOR FLOODING IS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 50 PERCENT.

THE HUDSON BAY DRAINAGES OF MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA ARE IMPACTED
BY DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND A LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK.  THE
CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THIS REGION IS LESS THAN 50 PERCENT.

THE FOLLOWING BASIN SYNOPSES ARE THE SAME AS THE FEBRUARY OUTLOOK
AND INCLUDE DISCUSSION OF FALL AND WINTER HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL OUTLOOK FOR THE SPRING OF 2015.


*******************

HUDSON BAY DRAINAGE

*******************

***  SOURIS RIVER BASIN

THE FALL SEASON RECORDED NEAR AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN BASIN
AND BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST.  FALL TEMPERATURES WERE
BELOW NORMAL...LIKELY PRODUCING BELOW AVERAGE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.  TOPSOIL
MOISTURE IS CONSIDERED NEAR NORMAL WITH SUBSOIL MOISTURE BEING ABOVE
NORMAL.  SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS BECOME SOMEWHAT DRIER IN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE BASIN.  WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE WEST.  THE WINTER HAS SEEN
SEVERAL THAW PERIODS AND THUS VISUAL ACCOUNTS OF THE BASIN SNOWPACK
INDICATE BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS.

***  DEVILS LAKE BASIN

FALL SEASON PRECIPITATION WAS WELL BELOW NORMAL.  WINTER
PRECIPITATION TO DATE HAS ALSO BEEN BELOW NORMAL.  CURRENT SNOWPACK
CONDITIONS INDICATE WATER CONTENTS NEAR ONE INCH IN THE NORTHERN
WATERSHEDS TO ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA.  THE
LACK OF SNOW COVER AND NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WINTER HAS ALLOWED THE SOIL TO FREEZE TO NEAR HISTORICAL AVERAGES OF
2 TO 4 FEET.  AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A REDUCED CHANCE OF HAVING
TOTAL SEASONAL INFLOW NEAR THE HISTORICAL NORMAL.

***  RED RIVER OF THE NORTH RIVER BASIN

LATE SUMMER AND FALL RECORDED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE HIGHEST DEFICITS FROM NORMAL IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS.  THE WINTER SEASON HAS CONTINUED WITH
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION WITH THE LARGEST DEFICITS RECORDED IN
EASTCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.  THERE HAS BEEN LESS THAN 50
PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION.  THE LACK OF SNOW
COVER AND NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER HAS
ALLOWED THE SOIL TO FREEZE TO NEAR HISTORICAL AVERAGES OF 2 TO 4
FEET.  WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVING SET IN DURING THE FALL AND
BELOW NORMAL WINTER PRECIPITATION...THE CHANCES FOR SPRING FLOODING
ARE WELL BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE BASIN.

********************

GREAT LAKES DRAINAGE

********************

THE FALL SEASON OBSERVED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE WESTERN
UPPER PENINSULA TO GREEN BAY...EASTWARD TO SAULT STE. MARIE AND
ALPENA.  NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION WAS RECORDED FROM SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN TO SAGINAW...DETROIT AND NORTHERN INDIANA.  SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS ARE CONSIDER TO BE WETTER THAN AVERAGE IN THIS AREA.
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA OBSERVED BELOW NORMAL FALL PRECIPITATION AND
THUS HAS BELOW AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.

THE WINTER SEASON HAS BROUGHT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION TO MOST AREAS.  THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN... THE UPPER PENINSULA AND AREAS OF WESTERN AND
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE LEE OF LAKE MICHIGAN HAVE SEEN ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS ALSO INCLUDED IN THE
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CATEGORY.  SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
MEASUREMENTS INDICATE ABOVE AVERAGE AMOUNT OF WATER IN THE SNOWPACK
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE AREAS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

WINTER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BELOW AVERAGE...PUSHING FROST DEPTHS
TO NEAR 3 FEET IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WHILE REPORTED
FROST DEPTHS IN LOWER MICHIGAN ARE 1 TO 2 FEET.

CURRENT NATURAL STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW
NORMAL AS REPORTED BY THE USGS. AT THIS TIME...FLOOD RISK IS
CONSIDERED BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAKE SUPERIOR BASINS IN MINNESOTA
AND NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ELEVATED ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE.  THIS ELEVATED
RISK IS FOR FLOODING AT THE MINOR FLOOD LEVEL.

********************************

UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER DRAINAGE

********************************

FALL PRECIPITATION WAS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
WISCONSIN...ILLINOIS...IOWA...AND EASTERN MISSOURI.  FALL
PRECIPITATION WAS BELOW NORMAL IN MINNESOTA.  AT THE ONSET OF
WINTER...DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAD BEEN ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE BASIN IN MINNESOTA WHILE NEAR AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS PREVAILED ELSEWHERE.  STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS AS REPORTED
BY THE USGS WERE NEAR NORMAL FOR MINNESOTA...IOWA... AND MISSOURI
WHILE BEING ABOVE NORMAL IN ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN.

WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A SMALL PORTION OF CENTRAL IOWA AND THE HEADWATER
BASINS OF THE CHIPPEWA AND WISCONSIN RIVERS.  REPORTED SNOW WATER
CONTENTS ARE 3 TO 4 INCHES IN EXTREME NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
GENERALLY 1 INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE.  ISOLATED AREAS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA SHOW AROUND 2 INCHES.  ALL IN ALL THE
SNOWPACK IS WELL BELOW HISTORICAL AVERAGES.

WINTER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL FOR LONG
PERIODS SINCE NOVEMBER.  FEBRUARY IS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOLLOWING
A RELATIVELY WARM JANUARY.  AS A RESULT...SOIL FROST IS AGAIN
BUILDING ACROSS THE BASIN WITH 2 TO 3 FEET REPORTED IN MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN 1 TO 2 FEET IN IOWA AND UP TO 1 FOOT IN ILLINOIS...INDIANA
AND MISSOURI.  THESE REPORTS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WHEN LOOKING AT ALL THESE FACTORS...THE CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT THIS SPRING ARE LOW.  MUCH OF THE BASIN HAS
NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL RISK FOR FLOODING.  THE KANKAKEE AND UPPER
ILLINOIS RIVER HAVE A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED RISK FOR FLOODING DUE TO
WETTER SOIL MOISTURE CONDITION FROM PERIODIC MELTS AND HAVING 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW WATER CONTENT.

$$

NNNN





000
FGUS63 KMSR 041512
ESGMEC

MERAMEC RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
911 AM CST WED MAR 04 2015

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Meramec River
SEEM7            12.0   20.0   25.0    44   40   <5   <5   <5   <5
SLLM7            11.0   20.0   29.0    69   70   15   13   <5   <5
:Bourbeuse River
UNNM7            15.0   22.0   26.0    47   46    7    7   <5   <5
:Meramec River
PCFM7            15.0   23.0   27.0    52   53    9    9   <5   <5
:Big River
BYRM7            16.0   20.0   28.0    70   64   29   26   <5   <5
:Meramec River
ERKM7            18.0   25.0   30.0    46   47   20   16   10   10

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0302 Z DH12 /DC1503021511/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Meramec River
SEEM7       4.3/    5.6/    8.1/   11.5/   13.7/   15.8/   18.8
SLLM7       6.8/    7.5/   10.0/   14.5/   17.6/   21.7/   25.5
:Bourbeuse River
UNNM7       9.1/   10.2/   12.3/   14.9/   18.2/   21.1/   23.9
:Meramec River
PCFM7       4.9/    7.1/   10.7/   15.3/   18.9/   23.0/   24.6
:Big River
BYRM7       8.8/   12.0/   15.2/   18.0/   20.8/   23.6/   25.8
:Meramec River
ERKM7       8.5/    9.7/   13.3/   17.1/   24.3/   30.5/   33.1
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0302 Z DH12 /DC1503021511/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Meramec River
SEEM7       2.4/    2.2/    2.0/    1.9/    1.8/    1.7/    1.6
SLLM7       3.3/    3.1/    2.8/    2.6/    2.4/    2.2/    2.1
:Bourbeuse River
UNNM7       2.1/    1.9/    1.8/    1.6/    1.5/    1.3/    1.2
:Meramec River
PCFM7       0.5/    0.2/   -0.2/   -0.7/   -1.2/   -1.5/   -1.7
:Big River
BYRM7       3.7/    3.4/    3.1/    2.7/    2.4/    2.2/    2.1
:Meramec River
ERKM7       3.1/    2.9/    2.7/    2.5/    2.3/    2.2/    2.1
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 041512
ESGMEC

MERAMEC RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
911 AM CST WED MAR 04 2015

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Meramec River
SEEM7            12.0   20.0   25.0    44   40   <5   <5   <5   <5
SLLM7            11.0   20.0   29.0    69   70   15   13   <5   <5
:Bourbeuse River
UNNM7            15.0   22.0   26.0    47   46    7    7   <5   <5
:Meramec River
PCFM7            15.0   23.0   27.0    52   53    9    9   <5   <5
:Big River
BYRM7            16.0   20.0   28.0    70   64   29   26   <5   <5
:Meramec River
ERKM7            18.0   25.0   30.0    46   47   20   16   10   10

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0302 Z DH12 /DC1503021511/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Meramec River
SEEM7       4.3/    5.6/    8.1/   11.5/   13.7/   15.8/   18.8
SLLM7       6.8/    7.5/   10.0/   14.5/   17.6/   21.7/   25.5
:Bourbeuse River
UNNM7       9.1/   10.2/   12.3/   14.9/   18.2/   21.1/   23.9
:Meramec River
PCFM7       4.9/    7.1/   10.7/   15.3/   18.9/   23.0/   24.6
:Big River
BYRM7       8.8/   12.0/   15.2/   18.0/   20.8/   23.6/   25.8
:Meramec River
ERKM7       8.5/    9.7/   13.3/   17.1/   24.3/   30.5/   33.1
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0302 Z DH12 /DC1503021511/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Meramec River
SEEM7       2.4/    2.2/    2.0/    1.9/    1.8/    1.7/    1.6
SLLM7       3.3/    3.1/    2.8/    2.6/    2.4/    2.2/    2.1
:Bourbeuse River
UNNM7       2.1/    1.9/    1.8/    1.6/    1.5/    1.3/    1.2
:Meramec River
PCFM7       0.5/    0.2/   -0.2/   -0.7/   -1.2/   -1.5/   -1.7
:Big River
BYRM7       3.7/    3.4/    3.1/    2.7/    2.4/    2.2/    2.1
:Meramec River
ERKM7       3.1/    2.9/    2.7/    2.5/    2.3/    2.2/    2.1
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 041453
ESGMIS

MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LOCK AND DAM 20 AT CANTON..MISSOURI
TO CHESTER..ILLINOIS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
853 AM CST WED MAR 04 2015

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Dardenne Creek
DRCM7            18.0   20.0   23.0    38   38   24   24   13   13
:Mississippi River
CANM7            14.0   20.0   25.0    47   64   <5   15   <5   <5
UINI2            17.0   18.0   22.5    47   64   33   60    7   24
HNNM7            16.0   22.0   24.0    52   67    6   16   <5    7
SVRM7            16.0   20.0   22.0    46   63   13   35    6   21
LUSM7            15.0   20.0   25.0    64   69   10   33   <5   <5
CLKM7            25.0   31.0   33.0    64   69    7   27   <5   12
CAGM7            26.0   30.0   34.0    53   67   18   40   <5    7

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0302 Z DH12 /DC1503021453/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Dardenne Creek
DRCM7       9.5/   10.1/   11.7/   15.4/   20.8/   24.2/   24.8
:Mississippi River
CANM7       8.9/    9.6/   11.6/   14.0/   15.9/   18.6/   20.2
UINI2      12.9/   13.2/   14.8/   17.0/   19.2/   22.1/   24.2
QLDI2      10.0/   10.8/   13.0/   15.9/   18.0/   20.9/   23.0
HNNM7      12.5/   13.1/   14.3/   16.3/   18.2/   20.4/   22.6
SVRM7       9.8/   10.8/   12.7/   15.9/   18.2/   20.9/   23.2
LUSM7      12.1/   12.2/   13.3/   16.3/   18.2/   20.1/   22.5
CLKM7      20.0/   20.9/   23.0/   26.5/   28.7/   30.7/   33.1
CAGM7      20.2/   21.2/   23.2/   26.6/   28.8/   30.7/   33.0
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0302 Z DH12 /DC1503021453/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 3/9/2015 - 6/7/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Dardenne Creek
DRCM7       3.4/    3.4/    3.2/    3.2/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0
:Mississippi River
CANM7       4.0/    3.6/    3.3/    3.2/    3.2/    3.1/    2.5
UINI2      11.6/   11.3/   11.1/   11.0/   10.9/   10.9/   10.9
QLDI2       4.6/    4.1/    3.9/    3.8/    3.7/    3.7/    3.0
HNNM7      10.4/   10.1/   10.0/   10.0/    9.9/    9.8/    9.6
SVRM7       5.6/    5.3/    5.1/    5.0/    4.9/    4.6/    4.1
LUSM7      11.9/   11.9/   11.9/   11.9/   11.9/   11.8/   11.8
CLKM7      16.0/   15.8/   15.5/   15.3/   14.9/   14.2/   13.7
CAGM7      15.8/   15.6/   15.4/   15.2/   14.8/   14.1/   13.5
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






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