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000
FGUS63 KMSR 241223
ESGM10

MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LAKE CITY..MINNESOTA TO
LOCK AND DAM 10 AT GUTTENBERG..IOWA
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
722 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:South Fork Zumbro River
RCHM5            14.0   18.0   20.0    12    7    6   <5   <5   <5
:Zumbro River
ZUMM5            18.0   24.0   26.0    12   10    6   <5   <5   <5
:South Branch Root River
LNSM5            12.0   16.0   18.0    20   12   10    5    6   <5
:Root River
HOUM5            15.0   17.0   18.0    23   12    9   <5   <5   <5
:Upper Iowa River
DEHI4            12.0   13.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DCHI4            14.0   17.0   19.0    22   21   13    9   10   <5
:Turkey River
EKDI4            12.0   16.0   20.0    45   37   22   17   11    7
GRBI4            17.0   20.0   23.0    37   28   28   16   17   12
:Mississippi River
LKCM5            16.0   18.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
WABM5            12.0   14.0   16.0    10   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
ALMW3            16.0   17.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MSCM5           660.0  662.0  665.0     5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
WIDM5           656.0  659.0  661.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
WNAM5            13.0   15.0   18.0     7    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
TREW3           647.0  649.0  651.0     6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LCRM5           641.0  643.0  645.0     5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LACW3            12.0   13.0   15.5     7    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
GENW3           631.0  634.0  636.0    10    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
LNSI4            17.0   19.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LYNW3           625.0  628.0  631.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MCGI4            16.0   19.0   22.0    12    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
GTTI4            15.0   18.0   21.0     8    5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0529 Z DH12 /DC1605241222/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:South Fork Zumbro River
RCHM5       3.6/    4.1/    5.0/    7.0/    9.0/   15.1/   18.4
:Zumbro River
ZUMM5       6.1/    7.2/    8.3/   11.1/   14.5/   19.7/   24.6
:South Branch Root River
LNSM5       2.6/    2.9/    3.7/    5.7/   10.5/   15.9/   18.8
:Root River
HOUM5       4.5/    4.7/    6.5/    9.5/   15.0/   17.0/   17.1
:Upper Iowa River
DEHI4       3.0/    3.4/    3.7/    4.6/    6.3/    9.8/   10.8
DCHI4       8.4/    8.6/    9.1/   10.9/   13.3/   18.7/   19.8
:Turkey River
EKDI4       7.1/    7.5/    8.8/   10.7/   14.9/   20.5/   21.6
GRBI4       8.5/    9.2/   11.3/   13.9/   20.9/   25.2/   28.8
:Mississippi River
LKCM5       7.2/    7.6/    8.3/   10.7/   12.4/   14.0/   15.8
WABM5       7.6/    7.8/    8.3/    9.7/   11.2/   12.1/   13.4
ALMW3       5.1/    5.4/    6.0/    7.7/    9.2/   10.8/   12.6
MSCM5     651.6/  651.9/  652.6/  654.4/  656.4/  658.0/  660.0
WIDM5     646.5/  646.7/  647.4/  649.9/  651.8/  653.6/  655.9
WNAM5       5.8/    6.0/    6.5/    8.4/   10.4/   12.1/   14.3
TREW3     640.5/  640.7/  641.3/  642.8/  644.3/  645.9/  647.6
LCRM5     632.9/  633.1/  634.4/  635.9/  638.2/  639.6/  641.1
LACW3       5.6/    5.8/    6.5/    7.8/   10.1/   11.5/   12.8
GENW3     623.2/  623.7/  625.0/  626.7/  629.5/  631.1/  632.1
LNSI4       8.3/    8.4/    8.6/    9.2/   11.2/   12.7/   14.1
LYNW3     615.7/  616.0/  617.0/  618.5/  621.2/  623.0/  624.3
MCGI4       8.7/    8.8/    9.6/   11.0/   13.4/   16.6/   18.6
GTTI4       7.0/    7.3/    8.7/   10.1/   12.2/   14.6/   16.3
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0529 Z DH12 /DC1605241222/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:South Fork Zumbro River
RCHM5       2.8/    2.7/    2.6/    2.5/    2.4/    2.3/    2.3
:Zumbro River
ZUMM5       5.6/    5.6/    5.4/    5.3/    5.2/    5.1/    5.1
:South Branch Root River
LNSM5       2.0/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8
:Root River
HOUM5       3.3/    3.3/    3.2/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    2.9
:Upper Iowa River
DEHI4       2.1/    2.0/    2.0/    1.9/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8
DCHI4       7.2/    7.2/    7.1/    7.0/    6.9/    6.9/    6.9
:Turkey River
EKDI4       5.8/    5.7/    5.6/    5.4/    5.4/    5.4/    5.3
GRBI4       6.5/    6.3/    6.2/    6.1/    6.1/    6.0/    6.0
:Mississippi River
LKCM5       7.0/    6.7/    6.4/    6.1/    5.9/    5.8/    5.8
WABM5       7.6/    7.4/    7.2/    7.0/    6.9/    6.8/    6.8
ALMW3       5.1/    4.8/    4.5/    4.4/    4.3/    4.2/    4.2
MSCM5     651.5/  651.4/  651.2/  651.1/  651.1/  651.0/  651.0
WIDM5     646.3/  646.0/  645.9/  645.7/  645.6/  645.6/  645.5
WNAM5       5.8/    5.7/    5.6/    5.6/    5.5/    5.5/    5.5
TREW3     640.3/  640.0/  639.8/  639.6/  639.4/  639.3/  639.3
LCRM5     632.5/  632.1/  631.7/  631.4/  631.3/  631.3/  631.3
LACW3       5.4/    5.3/    5.1/    4.9/    4.8/    4.8/    4.8
GENW3     622.6/  622.2/  621.5/  621.0/  620.8/  620.7/  620.6
LNSI4       8.1/    8.0/    7.9/    7.8/    7.7/    7.7/    7.7
LYNW3     614.9/  614.5/  613.6/  612.9/  612.5/  612.2/  612.1
MCGI4       8.4/    8.2/    8.0/    7.6/    7.4/    7.2/    7.2
GTTI4       6.2/    5.6/    4.9/    4.3/    4.0/    3.8/    3.7
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 241222
ESGRDW

MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOVE RED WING..MINNESOTA
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
721 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Prairie River
TACM5            10.0   12.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Mississippi River
ATKM5            13.0   15.0   18.0    15   26   <5   12   <5   <5
:Long Prairie River
LGPM5             7.0    8.0   10.0    12   14    6    9   <5   <5
:Mississippi River
FTRM5            10.0   12.5   26.0    10   24   <5    6   <5   <5
:Sauk River
STCM5             6.0    7.0    9.0     5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Mississippi River
SCOM5             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Fork Crow River
MAYM5            11.0   15.0   16.0    14    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
DELM5            16.5   17.5   18.5    10   <5    6   <5   <5   <5
:Crow River
RKFM5            10.0   12.0   14.0     8   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Mississippi River
MSPM5            16.0   16.5   17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Minnesota River
SAVM5           702.0  710.0  712.0    46   31   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Mississippi River
STPM5            14.0   15.0   17.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
HSTM5            15.0   17.0   18.0     7   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Snake River
PNCM5             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:St Croix River
STLM5            87.0   88.0   89.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Mississippi River
RDWM5           680.5  681.5  683.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
REDM5            14.0   15.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0529 Z DH12 /DC1605241221/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Prairie River
TACM5       4.3/    4.3/    4.6/    5.3/    6.3/    8.1/    9.5
:Mississippi River
ATKM5       7.2/    7.2/    7.8/    9.0/   10.9/   13.4/   14.5
:Long Prairie River
LGPM5       2.5/    2.6/    3.5/    5.3/    6.2/    7.4/    8.1
:Mississippi River
FTRM5       5.6/    5.6/    6.0/    7.5/    8.4/    9.9/   11.0
:Sauk River
STCM5       1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    3.1/    4.4/    5.5/    6.1
:Mississippi River
SCOM5       5.2/    5.2/    5.4/    6.2/    6.8/    7.6/    8.6
:South Fork Crow River
MAYM5       4.3/    4.3/    4.5/    6.1/    8.2/   12.7/   14.4
DELM5       8.8/    8.8/    8.9/   10.6/   13.0/   16.4/   18.4
:Crow River
RKFM5       3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    4.5/    6.2/    9.3/   11.3
:Mississippi River
MSPM5       5.5/    5.5/    5.8/    7.3/    8.3/   10.4/   13.0
:Minnesota River
SAVM5     690.7/  691.2/  696.6/  701.4/  705.0/  707.2/  708.4
:Mississippi River
STPM5       4.0/    4.0/    5.6/    7.5/    9.9/   11.3/   13.7
HSTM5       6.0/    6.1/    8.3/   10.5/   13.2/   14.5/   16.4
:Snake River
PNCM5       3.8/    3.8/    4.4/    5.0/    6.4/    7.6/    8.8
:St Croix River
STLM5      76.1/   76.1/   78.2/   79.8/   82.5/   84.9/   86.6
:Mississippi River
RDWM5     670.7/  671.0/  672.9/  674.3/  676.2/  678.2/  680.0
REDM5       4.6/    4.9/    7.0/    7.8/    9.5/   11.1/   13.3
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0529 Z DH12 /DC1605241221/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Prairie River
TACM5       3.4/    3.2/    2.8/    2.5/    2.1/    1.9/    1.8
:Mississippi River
ATKM5       5.2/    3.9/    3.4/    2.5/    2.2/    1.9/    1.7
:Long Prairie River
LGPM5       2.4/    2.2/    1.9/    1.6/    1.2/    1.1/    1.1
:Mississippi River
FTRM5       5.2/    4.8/    4.4/    4.0/    3.8/    3.7/    3.6
:Sauk River
STCM5       1.9/    1.8/    1.6/    1.3/    1.0/    0.7/    0.7
:Mississippi River
SCOM5       5.0/    4.8/    4.5/    4.3/    4.1/    4.0/    3.9
:South Fork Crow River
MAYM5       3.1/    2.8/    2.0/    1.6/    1.2/    1.0/    1.0
DELM5       7.3/    6.9/    6.0/    5.7/    5.4/    5.2/    5.2
:Crow River
RKFM5       3.0/    2.8/    2.5/    2.1/    1.7/    1.6/    1.5
:Mississippi River
MSPM5       5.2/    5.0/    4.6/    4.3/    4.0/    3.5/    3.4
:Minnesota River
SAVM5     688.9/  688.3/  687.8/  687.5/  687.4/  687.4/  687.4
:Mississippi River
STPM5       3.8/    3.5/    3.5/    3.3/    3.1/    3.1/    3.0
HSTM5       5.7/    5.1/    4.9/    4.5/    4.5/    4.4/    4.4
:Snake River
PNCM5       3.3/    3.2/    3.1/    3.0/    2.9/    2.9/    2.8
:St Croix River
STLM5      75.8/   75.6/   75.5/   75.3/   75.2/   75.2/   75.1
:Mississippi River
RDWM5     670.1/  669.2/  668.4/  667.2/  667.0/  667.0/  667.0
REDM5       4.3/    3.5/    3.0/    2.2/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 232020
ESGDEV

DEVILS LAKE BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
319 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016



IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0523 Z DH12 /DC1605232019/DRD+6/DVD130/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 05/23/2016 - 09/30/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Devils Lake
DCBN8    1450.0/ 1450.0/ 1450.0/ 1450.1/ 1450.2/ 1450.3/ 1450.4
:Eastern Stump Lake
ESLN8    1450.0/ 1450.0/ 1450.0/ 1450.1/ 1450.2/ 1450.3/ 1450.4
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

: The non-exceedance probabilities will be available seasonally Jun-Sep.


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 231735
ESGNLM

NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1235 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Manistee River
SHRM4            15.0   16.0   17.0     8   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Boardman River
MYFM4             7.0    9.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Au Sable River
RDOM4             7.0    8.0    9.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rifle River
STRM4             6.0   11.0   13.0    16   17   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0529 Z DH12 /DC1605231735/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Manistee River
SHRM4      12.3/   12.3/   12.5/   13.2/   14.0/   14.9/   15.4
:Boardman River
MYFM4       3.6/    3.7/    3.8/    4.1/    4.5/    4.8/    5.0
:Au Sable River
RDOM4       3.2/    3.2/    3.3/    3.6/    3.9/    4.3/    4.5
:Rifle River
STRM4       2.0/    2.2/    2.9/    4.0/    5.1/    6.8/    7.5
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0529 Z DH12 /DC1605231735/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Manistee River
SHRM4      11.6/   11.6/   11.5/   11.3/   11.3/   11.2/   11.2
:Boardman River
MYFM4       3.3/    3.3/    3.2/    3.2/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1
:Au Sable River
RDOM4       2.7/    2.7/    2.6/    2.5/    2.5/    2.4/    2.4
:Rifle River
STRM4       1.4/    1.3/    1.2/    1.1/    1.0/    1.0/    0.9
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 231729
ESGMEN

MENOMINEE RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1229 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Michigamme River
WLKM4             9.0   10.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Paint River
CRYM4             7.0    8.0    9.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Menominee River
FLOW3             9.0   11.0   13.0    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
NIAW3            13.0   15.0   16.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
VLCM4            15.0   17.0   19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MCAW3            15.0   18.0   19.0     6    9   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0529 Z DH12 /DC1605231729/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Michigamme River
WLKM4       3.2/    3.2/    3.3/    3.7/    4.2/    4.5/    5.2
:Paint River
CRYM4       3.0/    3.2/    3.5/    4.0/    4.5/    5.1/    5.9
:Menominee River
FLOW3       4.1/    4.2/    4.6/    5.2/    6.2/    7.2/    9.0
NIAW3       6.6/    6.7/    7.2/    7.9/    9.3/   10.2/   12.6
VLCM4       6.4/    6.5/    6.9/    7.7/    9.3/   10.6/   13.5
MCAW3      10.1/   10.2/   10.4/   11.2/   12.5/   13.3/   15.3
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0529 Z DH12 /DC1605231729/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Michigamme River
WLKM4       2.9/    2.9/    2.8/    2.7/    2.7/    2.6/    2.6
:Paint River
CRYM4       2.6/    2.5/    2.4/    2.3/    2.3/    2.2/    2.2
:Menominee River
FLOW3       3.7/    3.7/    3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.4/    3.3
NIAW3       6.1/    6.0/    5.9/    5.7/    5.6/    5.5/    5.4
VLCM4       5.9/    5.8/    5.7/    5.5/    5.4/    5.3/    5.3
MCAW3       9.7/    9.5/    9.4/    9.2/    9.1/    9.0/    9.0
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 231726
ESGRCK

ROCK RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1226 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Rock River
WATW3             5.5    6.0    6.5    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Crawfish River
MILW3             7.0    9.0   10.0     9   10   <5    6   <5   <5
:Rock River
JFFW3            10.0   11.0   13.0     9    9   <5    7   <5   <5
FATW3            16.0   17.0   18.0    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
NVLW3            10.0   11.0   11.5    12   11    6    8   <5    8
AFTW3             9.0   11.1   12.2    14   12    5    8   <5   <5
:Turtle Creek
CLIW3             8.0   10.0   12.0    20   15    8    6   <5   <5
:Pecatonica River
DARW3            13.5   15.0   16.0    28   23   25   19   21   13
:East Branch Pecatonica River
BCHW3            11.0   14.0   16.0    42   38   21   17   <5   <5
:Pecatonica River
MTNW3            13.5   18.0   21.0    35   28   22   14    6    6
FEEI2            13.0   14.0   16.0    27   25   24   16    7    9
:Sugar River
ALBW3            12.0   13.0   14.0     6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
BROW3             5.0    8.0   10.0    41   17   20    9   <5   <5
:Pecatonica River
SIRI2            12.0   14.0   15.5    23   22   19   13    8    6
:Rock River
ROKI2            10.0   11.0   14.0    19   11    9   10   <5    5
LATI2            10.0   11.0   14.0    18   11   10   10   <5   <5
RABI2             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kishwaukee River
BVDI2             9.0   10.0   12.0    18   12    9    7   <5   <5
:South Branch Kishwaukee River
DEKI2            10.0   11.0   12.5    15    9   10    5   <5   <5
:Kishwaukee River
PRYI2            12.0   18.0   22.0    34   23    6    5   <5   <5
:Rock River
BYRI2            13.0   14.0   16.0    19   16   17   12   11    8
DXRI2            16.0   18.0   20.0    20   13   11   11   <5   <5
CMOI2            10.0   11.0   12.0    34   27   28   23   23   17
JOSI2            12.0   14.0   16.5    39   31   27   20   17   14
:Green River
GENI2            15.0   16.5   18.0    17   11   14    5    7   <5
:Rock River
MLII2            12.0   13.0   14.0    41   33   30   18   21   17

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0529 Z DH12 /DC1605231726/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Rock River
WATW3       2.2/    2.2/    2.4/    2.8/    3.5/    4.6/    5.2
:Crawfish River
MILW3       2.6/    2.6/    2.7/    3.1/    3.9/    6.4/    8.0
:Rock River
JFFW3       4.5/    4.5/    4.6/    5.6/    7.0/    9.7/   10.8
FATW3      11.7/   11.7/   11.8/   12.4/   13.4/   14.7/   15.6
NVLW3       6.3/    6.3/    6.3/    6.7/    8.0/   10.3/   11.4
AFTW3       5.7/    5.7/    5.8/    6.2/    7.4/    9.7/   11.1
:Turtle Creek
CLIW3       4.2/    4.3/    4.6/    5.4/    7.0/    9.4/   10.8
:Pecatonica River
DARW3       5.7/    5.9/    7.1/    9.6/   15.2/   17.5/   18.1
:East Branch Pecatonica River
BCHW3       5.3/    5.8/    7.4/   10.3/   13.0/   14.8/   15.2
:Pecatonica River
MTNW3       7.8/    7.8/    8.4/   10.4/   16.8/   20.3/   22.4
FEEI2       7.4/    7.5/    8.4/   10.7/   13.9/   15.8/   17.1
:Sugar River
ALBW3       5.9/    5.9/    6.2/    7.3/   10.5/   11.7/   12.1
BROW3       2.7/    2.8/    3.1/    4.3/    6.9/    9.1/    9.9
:Pecatonica River
SIRI2       7.5/    7.5/    7.9/   10.2/   11.5/   15.3/   15.9
:Rock River
ROKI2       4.7/    4.7/    4.9/    5.9/    8.2/   10.8/   14.0
LATI2       5.5/    5.5/    5.6/    6.5/    8.4/   11.0/   13.6
RABI2       3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.3/    3.7/    5.2/    6.8
:Kishwaukee River
BVDI2       3.1/    3.1/    3.4/    5.1/    7.2/    9.9/   10.7
:South Branch Kishwaukee River
DEKI2       4.2/    4.7/    5.4/    6.5/    9.0/   10.9/   11.7
:Kishwaukee River
PRYI2       7.9/    7.9/    8.1/   10.3/   12.5/   16.0/   19.2
:Rock River
BYRI2       7.7/    7.8/    7.9/    9.4/   12.0/   16.4/   17.0
DXRI2      10.3/   10.3/   10.4/   11.7/   14.4/   18.4/   19.3
CMOI2       5.9/    5.9/    6.2/    7.9/   11.3/   13.8/   14.3
JOSI2       8.5/    8.5/    8.7/   10.8/   14.5/   18.2/   18.8
:Green River
GENI2       6.9/    6.9/    7.6/   10.8/   14.0/   17.4/   18.6
:Rock River
MLII2       9.8/    9.8/    9.9/   11.3/   13.6/   16.0/   16.9
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0529 Z DH12 /DC1605231726/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Rock River
WATW3       1.8/    1.7/    1.6/    1.4/    1.3/    1.2/    1.2
:Crawfish River
MILW3       2.2/    2.1/    2.0/    2.0/    1.9/    1.8/    1.8
:Rock River
JFFW3       3.9/    3.7/    3.5/    3.4/    3.3/    3.2/    3.2
FATW3      11.1/   11.0/   10.9/   10.8/   10.7/   10.7/   10.7
NVLW3       6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2
AFTW3       4.1/    3.9/    3.6/    3.4/    3.1/    2.9/    2.9
:Turtle Creek
CLIW3       3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5
:Pecatonica River
DARW3       2.8/    2.6/    2.6/    2.5/    2.4/    2.4/    2.3
:East Branch Pecatonica River
BCHW3       4.4/    4.3/    4.1/    4.0/    4.0/    3.9/    3.9
:Pecatonica River
MTNW3       5.5/    5.4/    5.3/    5.0/    4.7/    4.6/    4.5
FEEI2       4.8/    4.5/    4.3/    4.0/    3.6/    3.5/    3.3
:Sugar River
ALBW3       4.0/    4.0/    3.9/    3.9/    3.8/    3.7/    3.7
BROW3       1.1/    1.1/    0.9/    0.9/    0.7/    0.7/    0.6
:Pecatonica River
SIRI2       5.3/    5.0/    4.7/    4.3/    4.0/    3.9/    3.8
:Rock River
ROKI2       3.2/    3.0/    2.7/    2.5/    2.3/    2.1/    2.1
LATI2       4.4/    4.3/    4.0/    3.9/    3.7/    3.6/    3.5
RABI2       2.7/    2.6/    2.5/    2.4/    2.3/    2.2/    2.2
:Kishwaukee River
BVDI2       1.6/    1.5/    1.2/    1.1/    0.8/    0.6/    0.6
:South Branch Kishwaukee River
DEKI2       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    2.9/    2.9/    2.8/    2.8
:Kishwaukee River
PRYI2       6.0/    6.0/    5.7/    5.6/    5.4/    5.2/    5.2
:Rock River
BYRI2       6.0/    5.8/    5.6/    5.3/    5.1/    5.0/    4.9
DXRI2       8.8/    8.6/    8.3/    8.0/    7.8/    7.6/    7.5
CMOI2       4.0/    3.8/    3.5/    3.3/    3.1/    2.9/    2.8
JOSI2       6.0/    5.8/    5.5/    5.0/    4.7/    4.4/    4.2
:Green River
GENI2       4.1/    3.7/    3.6/    3.3/    3.0/    2.8/    2.8
:Rock River
MLII2       8.4/    8.3/    8.2/    8.0/    7.9/    7.8/    7.8
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 231447
ESGSRS

SOURIS RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
946 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Des Lacs River
DESN8          1651.0 1653.0 1654.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Souris River
SHWN8          1623.0 1625.0 1630.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FOXN8          1573.0 1576.0 1578.0    <5   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
MINN8          1562.0 1565.0 1570.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MION8          1551.0 1553.0 1557.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LGNN8          1536.0 1538.0 1540.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SWRN8          1524.0 1526.0 1528.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
VLVN8          1507.0 1512.0 1517.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Wintering River
KLSN8          1509.0 1511.0 1512.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Souris River
TOWN8          1454.0 1456.0 1458.0     7   28   <5    6   <5   <5
BANN8          1440.0 1441.0 1443.0     6   28   <5   16   <5   <5
:Willow Creek
WLCN8          1442.0 1446.0 1448.0     6    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Souris River
WSTN8          1414.0 1418.0 1420.0     6   26   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0529 Z DH12 /DC1605231446/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Des Lacs River
DESN8    1639.2/ 1639.2/ 1639.2/ 1640.0/ 1641.2/ 1642.1/ 1643.0
:Souris River
SHWN8    1605.7/ 1605.7/ 1606.8/ 1608.0/ 1611.0/ 1615.2/ 1618.0
FOXN8    1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1570.9/ 1571.1
MINN8    1550.8/ 1550.9/ 1550.9/ 1551.3/ 1552.3/ 1554.2/ 1555.1
MION8    1537.1/ 1537.1/ 1537.8/ 1540.0/ 1542.2/ 1543.1/ 1543.4
LGNN8    1519.9/ 1520.0/ 1520.1/ 1521.9/ 1524.3/ 1526.7/ 1528.5
SWRN8    1506.7/ 1506.7/ 1507.1/ 1508.3/ 1510.2/ 1512.3/ 1515.0
VLVN8    1490.2/ 1490.2/ 1491.0/ 1492.4/ 1494.8/ 1496.4/ 1499.3
:Wintering River
KLSN8    1503.0/ 1503.1/ 1503.1/ 1504.0/ 1504.6/ 1505.0/ 1505.4
:Souris River
TOWN8    1444.4/ 1444.4/ 1445.1/ 1447.3/ 1449.9/ 1453.8/ 1454.5
BANN8    1430.8/ 1430.8/ 1431.2/ 1433.1/ 1435.8/ 1439.7/ 1440.3
:Willow Creek
WLCN8    1436.5/ 1436.5/ 1436.5/ 1437.0/ 1437.9/ 1439.2/ 1443.5
:Souris River
WSTN8    1409.9/ 1409.9/ 1409.9/ 1410.5/ 1411.4/ 1412.5/ 1415.7
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0529 Z DH12 /DC1605231446/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Des Lacs River
DESN8    1639.1/ 1639.1/ 1639.0/ 1639.0/ 1638.9/ 1638.9/ 1638.9
:Souris River
SHWN8    1605.6/ 1605.6/ 1605.5/ 1605.5/ 1605.5/ 1605.5/ 1605.5
FOXN8    1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1566.6/ 1566.6
MINN8    1550.8/ 1550.8/ 1550.7/ 1550.6/ 1550.6/ 1550.6/ 1550.6
MION8    1537.3/ 1537.1/ 1536.7/ 1536.2/ 1536.2/ 1536.2/ 1536.2
LGNN8    1520.0/ 1519.9/ 1519.9/ 1519.7/ 1519.7/ 1519.7/ 1519.7
SWRN8    1506.9/ 1506.7/ 1506.6/ 1506.5/ 1506.5/ 1506.5/ 1506.5
VLVN8    1490.3/ 1490.2/ 1490.2/ 1490.2/ 1490.2/ 1490.2/ 1490.2
:Wintering River
KLSN8    1502.9/ 1502.8/ 1502.8/ 1502.8/ 1502.8/ 1502.8/ 1502.8
:Souris River
TOWN8    1444.4/ 1444.4/ 1444.4/ 1444.4/ 1444.4/ 1444.4/ 1444.4
BANN8    1430.8/ 1430.8/ 1430.6/ 1430.5/ 1430.5/ 1430.5/ 1430.5
:Willow Creek
WLCN8    1436.1/ 1436.0/ 1436.0/ 1436.0/ 1436.0/ 1436.0/ 1436.0
:Souris River
WSTN8    1409.5/ 1409.4/ 1409.2/ 1409.2/ 1409.2/ 1409.2/ 1409.2
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 231446
ESGGND

GRAND..MUSKEGON..WHITE..PERE MARQUETTE RIVER BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
945 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Grand River
JACM4            14.0   15.0   16.0    17   19   11   10   <5   <5
ETNM4             6.0    8.0    9.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DMDM4            13.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Red Cedar River
WMSM4             9.0   10.0   10.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ELNM4             7.0   10.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Sycamore Creek
HHTM4             8.0    9.0   10.0    14   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Grand River
LNSM4            11.0   13.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
GDLM4            11.0   13.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PORM4            12.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Looking Glass River
EAGM4             7.0    9.0   11.0    12   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Maple River
MRPM4             9.0   11.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Grand River
IONM4            21.0   23.0   25.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Flat River
SMYM4             8.5    9.5   10.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Grand River
LWLM4            15.0   18.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Thornapple River
HSTM4             7.0    9.0   10.0     8    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
CLDM4            10.0   12.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Grand River
ADAM4            20.0   22.0   25.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rogue River
ROCM4             8.0   10.0   11.0     7    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Grand River
GDRM4            18.0   21.0   23.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pere Marquette River
SCTM4             5.5    6.5    7.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:White River
WHTM4             6.0    7.0    8.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Muskegon River
EVRM4            12.0   13.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Muskegon River
MORM4             6.0    7.0    8.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Muskegon River
CROM4             9.0   11.0   12.0     6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0529 Z DH12 /DC1605231445/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Grand River
JACM4      11.2/   11.7/   12.2/   13.0/   13.6/   15.1/   15.7
ETNM4       3.7/    3.8/    3.8/    4.0/    4.2/    4.3/    4.5
DMDM4       5.6/    5.8/    6.1/    6.8/    7.2/    7.9/   10.0
:Red Cedar River
WMSM4       3.5/    3.5/    4.9/    5.6/    6.7/    7.3/    7.7
ELNM4       3.6/    3.6/    4.0/    4.4/    5.3/    6.0/    6.4
:Sycamore Creek
HHTM4       4.0/    4.4/    6.1/    6.9/    7.6/    8.5/    8.9
:Grand River
LNSM4       3.8/    4.0/    4.4/    5.2/    6.1/    7.7/    9.5
GDLM4       5.5/    5.6/    5.8/    6.1/    6.7/    7.5/    8.7
PORM4       6.5/    6.7/    7.1/    7.6/    8.2/    9.9/   11.0
:Looking Glass River
EAGM4       3.4/    3.4/    4.0/    4.9/    6.1/    7.2/    8.9
:Maple River
MRPM4       5.6/    5.6/    6.0/    6.9/    7.6/    8.2/    8.8
:Grand River
IONM4      11.2/   11.3/   11.8/   13.8/   15.6/   18.5/   20.0
:Flat River
SMYM4       4.1/    4.1/    4.4/    4.7/    5.1/    5.4/    5.8
:Grand River
LWLM4       7.0/    7.0/    7.2/    8.2/    9.7/   11.9/   13.8
:Thornapple River
HSTM4       3.8/    3.8/    4.1/    4.7/    5.9/    6.6/    8.4
CLDM4       4.3/    4.3/    4.7/    5.4/    6.5/    7.8/    9.6
:Grand River
ADAM4       9.4/    9.4/    9.7/   11.3/   13.4/   16.8/   17.9
:Rogue River
ROCM4       4.9/    4.9/    5.1/    5.8/    6.7/    7.6/    9.4
:Grand River
GDRM4       4.9/    5.0/    5.6/    7.1/    9.3/   13.8/   15.3
:Pere Marquette River
SCTM4       2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.5/    3.8/    4.6/    5.0
:White River
WHTM4       2.1/    2.1/    2.3/    3.2/    4.2/    5.3/    6.0
:Muskegon River
EVRM4       7.9/    7.9/    7.9/    8.1/    8.8/   10.0/   11.2
:Little Muskegon River
MORM4       2.4/    2.5/    2.6/    2.9/    3.6/    4.3/    4.9
:Muskegon River
CROM4       5.7/    5.7/    5.7/    6.2/    7.2/    8.3/    9.1
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0529 Z DH12 /DC1605231445/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Grand River
JACM4       9.5/    9.3/    9.1/    8.9/    8.9/    8.8/    8.7
ETNM4       3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5
DMDM4       4.8/    4.7/    4.5/    4.4/    4.4/    4.3/    4.3
:Red Cedar River
WMSM4       2.6/    2.6/    2.5/    2.5/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4
ELNM4       3.3/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2
:Sycamore Creek
HHTM4       3.1/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    2.9
:Grand River
LNSM4       2.9/    2.7/    2.7/    2.6/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5
GDLM4       5.0/    4.9/    4.8/    4.8/    4.7/    4.7/    4.7
PORM4       5.5/    5.3/    5.2/    5.1/    5.1/    5.1/    5.0
:Looking Glass River
EAGM4       2.8/    2.7/    2.6/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5
:Maple River
MRPM4       3.3/    3.1/    2.9/    2.8/    2.7/    2.7/    2.7
:Grand River
IONM4       9.0/    8.7/    8.5/    8.4/    8.3/    8.2/    8.2
:Flat River
SMYM4       3.6/    3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4
:Grand River
LWLM4       5.6/    5.4/    5.2/    5.1/    5.0/    5.0/    4.9
:Thornapple River
HSTM4       3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9
CLDM4       3.5/    3.4/    3.3/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2
:Grand River
ADAM4       6.7/    6.5/    6.2/    6.0/    5.9/    5.7/    5.6
:Rogue River
ROCM4       4.1/    4.1/    4.0/    3.9/    3.8/    3.7/    3.7
:Grand River
GDRM4       3.4/    3.4/    3.3/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2
:Pere Marquette River
SCTM4       1.6/    1.6/    1.6/    1.5/    1.4/    1.4/    1.4
:White River
WHTM4       1.6/    1.6/    1.5/    1.5/    1.4/    1.4/    1.4
:Muskegon River
EVRM4       7.3/    7.2/    7.1/    7.0/    6.9/    6.9/    6.9
:Little Muskegon River
MORM4       2.3/    2.3/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2
:Muskegon River
CROM4       4.9/    4.9/    4.8/    4.7/    4.7/    4.6/    4.6
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 231446
ESGTIA

MAQUOKETA..WAPSIPINICON..SKUNK RIVER BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
945 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Maquoketa River
MCHI4            14.0   17.0   20.0    28   23   16   15   10    9
MAQI4            24.0   26.0   28.5    19   13   10   12    7    8
:Wapsipinicon River
IDPI4            12.0   13.0   15.0    14   13   12   12    8    8
ANSI4            14.0   15.5   19.0    25   24   19   19    9    9
DEWI4            11.0   11.5   12.5    63   56   55   49   25   25
:South Skunk River
AMEI4            12.5   16.0   16.5    12   12    8    7    8    7
:Squaw Creek
AMWI4            10.0   14.0   15.5    26   24    8    8   <5    5
:South Skunk River
AESI4            21.5   23.5   24.5    23   22   15   12    6    6
CFXI4            18.0   19.0   21.0    20   12    9    7    5    6
OOAI4            24.5   28.5   30.0     5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:North Skunk River
SIGI4            16.0   18.0   21.0    43   41   32   27   12   12
:Skunk River
AGSI4            15.0   17.0   20.0    32   30   19   21   12   15

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0529 Z DH12 /DC1605231445/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Maquoketa River
MCHI4       4.3/    6.3/    7.5/   10.4/   14.6/   19.5/   21.7
MAQI4      12.1/   12.5/   14.4/   17.4/   21.1/   26.4/   31.1
:Wapsipinicon River
IDPI4       5.4/    5.7/    6.3/    7.3/    9.2/   14.3/   18.5
ANSI4       6.6/    6.9/    8.8/   10.8/   13.6/   18.2/   21.9
DEWI4       7.8/    8.6/   10.1/   11.8/   12.5/   13.2/   13.9
:South Skunk River
AMEI4       4.9/    5.2/    6.4/    8.9/    9.9/   14.1/   17.9
:Squaw Creek
AMWI4       3.9/    4.4/    5.1/    6.9/   10.5/   13.7/   15.5
:South Skunk River
AESI4      13.6/   14.5/   16.0/   18.2/   21.4/   23.9/   25.4
CFXI4      10.5/   10.7/   12.0/   14.6/   17.4/   18.9/   21.7
OOAI4      12.5/   12.7/   13.8/   18.4/   20.3/   22.5/   24.7
:North Skunk River
SIGI4       9.4/    9.6/   12.1/   15.1/   19.0/   21.9/   23.1
:Skunk River
AGSI4       6.7/    6.9/    8.4/   12.1/   15.6/   21.4/   22.4
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0529 Z DH12 /DC1605231445/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Maquoketa River
MCHI4       4.1/    4.0/    4.0/    3.9/    3.8/    3.8/    3.8
MAQI4      11.1/   10.9/   10.7/   10.5/   10.3/   10.2/   10.0
:Wapsipinicon River
IDPI4       4.9/    4.8/    4.7/    4.7/    4.6/    4.5/    4.5
ANSI4       5.0/    4.9/    4.8/    4.7/    4.5/    4.5/    4.4
DEWI4       5.9/    5.8/    5.5/    5.3/    5.1/    4.9/    4.9
:South Skunk River
AMEI4       3.5/    3.3/    3.2/    3.0/    2.8/    2.5/    2.5
:Squaw Creek
AMWI4       2.0/    1.8/    1.8/    1.7/    1.6/    1.6/    1.5
:South Skunk River
AESI4       9.5/    9.3/    9.0/    8.6/    8.4/    8.2/    8.2
CFXI4       8.3/    8.0/    7.9/    7.6/    7.4/    7.3/    7.2
OOAI4       8.5/    7.9/    7.5/    7.1/    6.7/    6.5/    6.3
:North Skunk River
SIGI4       4.9/    4.5/    4.2/    4.0/    3.7/    3.6/    3.4
:Skunk River
AGSI4       2.6/    2.4/    2.0/    1.7/    1.5/    1.3/    1.2
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 231442
ESGDES

DES MOINES RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
942 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:East Fork Des Moines River
AGNI4            17.0   18.0   22.0    22   14   10    6   <5   <5
DAKI4            20.0   24.0   28.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Boone River
WBCI4            14.0   17.0   19.0    10    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
GRMI4            14.0   16.0   17.0     9    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:North Raccoon River
EFWI4            19.0   21.0   23.0    15    9    6   <5   <5   <5
PROI4            15.0   18.0   20.0    54   43   32   27   20   14
:South Raccoon River
REDI4            20.0   24.0   27.0    18   11    8    7   <5   <5
:Raccoon River
VNMI4            17.0   22.0   23.0    31   20   10    7    9    6
DMWI4            36.0   38.0   40.0    30   18   16    6    9   <5
DEMI4            12.0   16.0   25.0    53   41   30   19   <5   <5
:North River
NRWI4            22.0   25.0   26.0    17   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Middle River
IDNI4            23.0   26.0   28.0    11    9    6   <5   <5   <5
:South River
AKWI4            29.0   30.0   32.0    12   12   12   10    5    5
:Cedar Creek
BSSI4            25.0   30.0   32.0     9    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Des Moines River
JCKM5            12.0   14.0   16.0    30   13   17    8    8   <5
ESVI4             8.0   13.0   14.5    46   27   11    7    6   <5
EMTI4            11.0   13.0   15.0    21   12   11    5   <5   <5
HBTI4            10.0   13.0   14.0    27   18    5   <5   <5   <5
FODI4            10.5   16.0   17.0    30   19   <5   <5   <5   <5
STRI4            21.0   25.0   27.0    16   13    8    7    7    6
DMOI4            23.0   26.0   30.0     9    6    8   <5   <5   <5
DESI4            24.0   26.0   30.0    53   46   30   22    9    6
EDYI4            63.0   68.0   70.0    13   10    7    5    5   <5
OTMI4            11.5   15.0   19.0    23   18   13    8    8    6
KEQI4            22.0   25.0   27.0    17   12   10    9    9    8
SFLM7            18.0   22.0   25.0    42   30   19   13   10    8

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0529 Z DH12 /DC1605231442/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:East Fork Des Moines River
AGNI4       9.4/    9.8/   11.8/   14.5/   16.9/   18.0/   18.4
DAKI4      10.1/   10.3/   11.6/   13.4/   16.2/   18.5/   19.9
:Boone River
WBCI4       3.8/    4.6/    6.6/    7.6/   10.1/   13.7/   16.3
:Beaver Creek
GRMI4       8.8/    8.8/    9.0/   10.0/   12.3/   13.7/   14.6
:North Raccoon River
EFWI4       9.9/   10.1/   10.8/   13.2/   16.4/   20.2/   21.4
PROI4      12.2/   12.4/   13.1/   15.5/   18.8/   23.6/   26.2
:South Raccoon River
REDI4       6.6/    6.7/    7.3/    9.4/   14.0/   21.1/   26.9
:Raccoon River
VNMI4      10.3/   10.3/   10.9/   13.6/   20.0/   22.1/   24.2
DMWI4      30.6/   30.7/   31.3/   33.7/   36.9/   39.0/   41.2
DEMI4       9.1/    9.2/    9.9/   12.5/   17.4/   19.9/   21.4
:North River
NRWI4      13.5/   13.5/   14.1/   17.5/   21.2/   22.4/   22.8
:Middle River
IDNI4      10.8/   12.1/   13.5/   15.9/   20.3/   23.2/   26.7
:South River
AKWI4       8.7/    9.4/   11.4/   14.3/   23.1/   30.9/   32.1
:Cedar Creek
BSSI4       7.7/    8.7/   10.5/   12.4/   16.5/   24.2/   28.2
:Des Moines River
JCKM5       6.8/    6.8/    7.6/    9.4/   12.5/   14.7/   18.7
ESVI4       4.8/    4.9/    5.6/    7.3/   10.2/   13.4/   15.3
EMTI4       4.1/    4.2/    4.9/    7.3/   10.3/   13.4/   13.8
HBTI4       5.4/    5.5/    6.1/    7.5/   10.4/   12.0/   13.0
FODI4       6.0/    6.1/    6.9/    8.9/   10.7/   13.4/   15.9
STRI4       9.8/   10.0/   12.5/   15.6/   18.9/   22.4/   28.1
DMOI4      17.4/   17.5/   17.9/   18.3/   18.7/   21.0/   27.9
DESI4      22.2/   22.2/   22.8/   24.5/   26.9/   29.8/   32.4
EDYI4      57.0/   57.0/   57.6/   59.3/   61.0/   65.2/   70.0
OTMI4       6.8/    6.9/    7.5/    8.5/   10.9/   16.3/   19.9
KEQI4      15.4/   15.6/   16.3/   17.2/   19.6/   25.4/   28.7
SFLM7      14.1/   14.5/   15.1/   16.5/   19.6/   24.6/   27.1
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0529 Z DH12 /DC1605231442/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:East Fork Des Moines River
AGNI4       7.0/    7.0/    6.6/    6.4/    6.1/    5.6/    5.4
DAKI4       8.6/    8.4/    8.1/    7.9/    7.7/    7.5/    7.4
:Boone River
WBCI4       1.7/    1.6/    1.6/    1.5/    1.4/    1.4/    1.3
:Beaver Creek
GRMI4       3.4/    3.0/    2.7/    2.5/    2.2/    2.1/    2.1
:North Raccoon River
EFWI4       5.9/    5.8/    5.6/    5.4/    5.2/    5.1/    5.1
PROI4       5.7/    5.6/    5.3/    4.9/    4.6/    4.3/    4.3
:South Raccoon River
REDI4       3.3/    3.1/    3.0/    2.9/    2.8/    2.8/    2.7
:Raccoon River
VNMI4       4.5/    4.4/    4.1/    3.8/    3.7/    3.5/    3.4
DMWI4      23.3/   23.1/   22.9/   22.5/   22.3/   22.1/   22.0
DEMI4       1.6/    1.5/    1.2/    0.9/    0.7/    0.5/    0.5
:North River
NRWI4       7.1/    6.6/    6.3/    6.2/    6.0/    6.0/    6.0
:Middle River
IDNI4       7.1/    7.0/    6.8/    6.7/    6.6/    6.6/    6.6
:South River
AKWI4       5.8/    5.6/    5.5/    5.5/    5.4/    5.4/    5.3
:Cedar Creek
BSSI4       5.6/    5.6/    5.5/    5.4/    5.4/    5.3/    5.3
:Des Moines River
JCKM5       6.3/    5.7/    5.1/    4.6/    4.3/    4.2/    4.2
ESVI4       4.3/    3.9/    3.5/    3.2/    3.0/    2.9/    2.8
EMTI4       3.2/    2.8/    2.2/    1.7/    1.5/    1.3/    1.2
HBTI4       4.8/    4.6/    4.3/    4.0/    3.8/    3.7/    3.6
FODI4       5.0/    4.7/    4.5/    4.2/    4.0/    3.8/    3.7
STRI4       7.0/    6.7/    6.4/    6.1/    5.8/    5.6/    5.4
DMOI4      14.1/   14.0/   13.8/   13.5/   13.3/   13.1/   13.0
DESI4      13.8/   13.1/   12.4/   11.8/   11.4/   11.1/   10.9
EDYI4      55.6/   55.2/   50.4/   49.7/   49.4/   49.0/   48.8
OTMI4       6.1/    5.7/    2.7/    2.2/    2.0/    1.8/    1.7
KEQI4      14.9/   14.8/   11.5/   11.0/   10.8/   10.5/   10.4
SFLM7      13.3/   13.2/    8.8/    7.7/    7.3/    6.9/    6.8
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 231423
ESGMEC

MERAMEC RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
922 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Bourbeuse River
UNNM7            15.0   22.0   26.0    18   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Big River
BYRM7            16.0   20.0   28.0    17   13    9    8   <5   <5
:Meramec River
SEEM7            12.0   20.0   25.0    14    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
SLLM7            11.0   20.0   29.0    23   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
PCFM7            15.0   23.0   27.0    15   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
ERKM7            19.0   26.0   31.0    11   10   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0529 Z DH12 /DC1605231422/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Bourbeuse River
UNNM7       2.0/    2.1/    4.7/    8.2/   13.6/   19.2/   21.8
:Big River
BYRM7       4.5/    4.6/    5.5/    8.9/   14.3/   19.2/   21.4
:Meramec River
SEEM7       2.8/    2.8/    2.9/    4.7/    9.1/   12.6/   14.1
SLLM7       5.1/    5.1/    5.2/    7.3/   10.5/   15.6/   19.4
PCFM7       0.8/    0.8/    1.4/    5.5/   11.6/   17.5/   20.5
ERKM7       4.8/    4.9/    5.3/    7.9/   13.6/   21.3/   25.0
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0529 Z DH12 /DC1605231422/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Bourbeuse River
UNNM7       1.7/    1.6/    1.4/    1.3/    1.1/    1.1/    1.1
:Big River
BYRM7       2.7/    2.5/    2.2/    2.0/    1.9/    1.7/    1.6
:Meramec River
SEEM7       2.0/    1.9/    1.8/    1.7/    1.6/    1.6/    1.6
SLLM7       3.9/    3.8/    3.5/    3.4/    3.3/    3.2/    3.2
PCFM7      -0.8/   -1.0/   -1.4/   -1.6/   -1.7/   -1.8/   -1.9
ERKM7       3.7/    3.6/    3.3/    3.2/    3.2/    3.1/    3.1
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 231311
ESGMIN

MINNESOTA RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
811 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Little Minnesota River
PVRS2            17.0   22.0   24.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Minnesota River
BSLM5           971.5  973.0  975.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Redwood River
MSHM5            14.0   15.0   16.5    16   <5   11   <5    7   <5
RWDM5             6.0   15.0   16.0    22    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cottonwood River
NWUM5            11.0   13.0   16.0    26   13   11    7   <5   <5
:Minnesota River
MVOM5            14.0   16.0   17.5    22   20   <5   10   <5   <5
GTEM5           888.5  893.5  896.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MNKM5            22.0   25.0   30.0     5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
HENM5           732.0  736.0  739.5    16    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
JDNM5            25.0   28.0   34.0    31   22    5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0529 Z DH12 /DC1605231311/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Little Minnesota River
PVRS2       9.6/    9.6/    9.6/   10.5/   12.6/   14.5/   15.6
:Minnesota River
BSLM5     967.9/  967.9/  968.0/  968.0/  968.0/  968.1/  968.4
:Redwood River
MSHM5       8.0/    8.0/    9.0/   10.3/   12.6/   15.4/   18.1
RWDM5       2.6/    2.6/    3.2/    4.3/    5.7/    7.1/    8.6
:Cottonwood River
NWUM5       4.9/    5.3/    6.8/    8.6/   11.0/   13.6/   15.9
:Minnesota River
MVOM5       5.5/    5.5/    6.8/   10.4/   12.9/   15.2/   15.7
GTEM5     881.8/  881.8/  882.3/  883.6/  884.3/  885.8/  887.0
MNKM5       7.7/    8.2/   11.2/   15.5/   18.7/   21.0/   22.4
HENM5     721.2/  721.8/  724.9/  728.6/  731.2/  732.8/  733.9
JDNM5      11.9/   12.6/   17.2/   23.4/   26.3/   27.3/   28.3
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0529 Z DH12 /DC1605231311/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 05/29/2016 - 08/27/2016
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Little Minnesota River
PVRS2       9.6/    9.6/    9.6/    9.6/    9.6/    9.6/    9.6
:Minnesota River
BSLM5     967.9/  967.9/  967.9/  967.9/  967.9/  967.9/  967.9
:Redwood River
MSHM5       7.6/    7.5/    7.4/    7.2/    7.1/    7.1/    7.1
RWDM5       2.2/    2.1/    2.0/    1.9/    1.8/    1.8/    1.7
:Cottonwood River
NWUM5       3.5/    3.4/    3.1/    2.8/    2.6/    2.5/    2.5
:Minnesota River
MVOM5       4.4/    4.3/    3.8/    3.2/    2.8/    2.5/    2.5
GTEM5     881.4/  881.3/  881.0/  880.6/  880.3/  880.1/  880.1
MNKM5       5.2/    4.2/    3.4/    2.4/    2.1/    1.8/    1.6
HENM5     718.8/  717.6/  715.9/  714.4/  713.9/  713.4/  713.2
JDNM5       9.5/    8.4/    6.8/    5.3/    4.8/    4.3/    4.2
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






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