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000
FGUS63 KMSR 202147
ESGNLM

NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
447 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Boardman River
MYFM4             7.0    9.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Au Sable River
RDOM4             7.0    8.0    9.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Manistee River
SHRM4            15.0   16.0   17.0    12   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rifle River
STRM4             6.0   11.0   13.0    25   10   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410202147/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Boardman River
MYFM4       3.8/    3.9/    4.1/    4.3/    4.6/    4.8/    5.0
:Au Sable River
RDOM4       3.4/    3.5/    3.7/    4.2/    4.6/    5.0/    5.2
:Manistee River
SHRM4      12.7/   12.8/   13.1/   13.8/   14.5/   15.1/   15.5
:Rifle River
STRM4       2.2/    3.2/    3.7/    4.6/    6.2/    6.9/    7.6
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410202147/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Boardman River
MYFM4       3.7/    3.7/    3.6/    3.6/    3.5/    3.4/    3.4
:Au Sable River
RDOM4       3.3/    3.2/    3.1/    3.0/    2.9/    2.8/    2.7
:Manistee River
SHRM4      12.2/   12.2/   12.1/   11.9/   11.7/   11.6/   11.6
:Rifle River
STRM4       1.7/    1.7/    1.6/    1.5/    1.5/    1.4/    1.4
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 202147
ESGNLM

NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
447 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Boardman River
MYFM4             7.0    9.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Au Sable River
RDOM4             7.0    8.0    9.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Manistee River
SHRM4            15.0   16.0   17.0    12   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rifle River
STRM4             6.0   11.0   13.0    25   10   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410202147/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Boardman River
MYFM4       3.8/    3.9/    4.1/    4.3/    4.6/    4.8/    5.0
:Au Sable River
RDOM4       3.4/    3.5/    3.7/    4.2/    4.6/    5.0/    5.2
:Manistee River
SHRM4      12.7/   12.8/   13.1/   13.8/   14.5/   15.1/   15.5
:Rifle River
STRM4       2.2/    3.2/    3.7/    4.6/    6.2/    6.9/    7.6
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410202147/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Boardman River
MYFM4       3.7/    3.7/    3.6/    3.6/    3.5/    3.4/    3.4
:Au Sable River
RDOM4       3.3/    3.2/    3.1/    3.0/    2.9/    2.8/    2.7
:Manistee River
SHRM4      12.2/   12.2/   12.1/   11.9/   11.7/   11.6/   11.6
:Rifle River
STRM4       1.7/    1.7/    1.6/    1.5/    1.5/    1.4/    1.4
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 202143
ESGMEN

MENOMINEE RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
442 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Michigamme River
WLKM4             9.0   10.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Paint River
CRYM4             7.0    8.0    9.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Menominee River
FLOW3             9.0   11.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
NIAW3            13.0   15.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
VLCM4            15.0   17.0   19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MCAW3            15.0   18.0   19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410202142/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Michigamme River
WLKM4       3.8/    3.8/    3.8/    3.9/    4.2/    4.5/    4.7
:Paint River
CRYM4       2.7/    2.9/    3.2/    3.7/    4.1/    4.4/    4.6
:Menominee River
FLOW3       3.7/    4.1/    4.4/    5.2/    5.7/    6.4/    6.8
NIAW3       6.1/    6.4/    6.8/    8.0/    8.8/    9.7/   10.2
VLCM4       6.2/    6.5/    7.0/    8.4/    9.3/   10.6/   11.1
MCAW3      10.0/   10.3/   10.7/   11.9/   12.7/   13.7/   14.0
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410202142/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Michigamme River
WLKM4       2.8/    2.7/    2.7/    2.6/    2.6/    2.5/    2.5
:Paint River
CRYM4       2.4/    2.4/    2.3/    2.2/    2.1/    2.0/    2.0
:Menominee River
FLOW3       3.7/    3.6/    3.5/    3.4/    3.3/    3.3/    3.3
NIAW3       6.0/    5.9/    5.8/    5.6/    5.5/    5.4/    5.3
VLCM4       6.0/    5.9/    5.8/    5.7/    5.6/    5.5/    5.5
MCAW3       9.6/    9.5/    9.4/    9.3/    9.2/    9.1/    9.1
.END

IN TABLE 4 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 4--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410202142/DRD+6/DVD90/QTVFZXT/QTVFZX9/QTVFZXH
.B1 /QTVFZX5/QTVFZXG/QTVFZX1/QTVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Michigamme River
WLKM4      0.43/   0.43/   0.44/   0.47/   0.59/   0.70/   0.77
:Paint River
CRYM4      0.44/   0.49/   0.65/   1.04/   1.44/   1.83/   2.10
:Menominee River
FLOW3      1.16/   1.45/   1.77/   2.60/   3.26/   4.20/   4.70
NIAW3      1.75/   2.05/   2.45/   3.73/   4.75/   5.97/   6.65
VLCM4      2.13/   2.45/   2.96/   4.63/   5.82/   7.52/   8.29
MCAW3      3.23/   3.60/   4.36/   6.44/   8.09/  10.43/  11.19
:Michigamme River
CYFM4      0.73/   0.73/   0.76/   1.08/   1.46/   1.75/   2.13
.END


IN TABLE 5 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOWS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 5--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410202142/DRD+6/DVD90/QTVFZNT/QTVFZN9/QTVFZNH
.B1 /QTVFZN5/QTVFZNG/QTVFZN1/QTVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Michigamme River
WLKM4      0.15/   0.14/   0.13/   0.12/   0.11/   0.10/   0.10
:Paint River
CRYM4      0.32/   0.30/   0.27/   0.25/   0.22/   0.21/   0.19
:Menominee River
FLOW3      1.18/   1.12/   1.03/   0.95/   0.89/   0.87/   0.84
NIAW3      1.72/   1.65/   1.53/   1.41/   1.32/   1.26/   1.23
VLCM4      1.92/   1.85/   1.72/   1.60/   1.53/   1.45/   1.42
MCAW3      2.68/   2.54/   2.36/   2.24/   2.12/   2.04/   1.99
:Michigamme River
CYFM4      0.33/   0.32/   0.30/   0.27/   0.25/   0.23/   0.23
.END



:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 202143
ESGMEN

MENOMINEE RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
442 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Michigamme River
WLKM4             9.0   10.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Paint River
CRYM4             7.0    8.0    9.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Menominee River
FLOW3             9.0   11.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
NIAW3            13.0   15.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
VLCM4            15.0   17.0   19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MCAW3            15.0   18.0   19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410202142/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Michigamme River
WLKM4       3.8/    3.8/    3.8/    3.9/    4.2/    4.5/    4.7
:Paint River
CRYM4       2.7/    2.9/    3.2/    3.7/    4.1/    4.4/    4.6
:Menominee River
FLOW3       3.7/    4.1/    4.4/    5.2/    5.7/    6.4/    6.8
NIAW3       6.1/    6.4/    6.8/    8.0/    8.8/    9.7/   10.2
VLCM4       6.2/    6.5/    7.0/    8.4/    9.3/   10.6/   11.1
MCAW3      10.0/   10.3/   10.7/   11.9/   12.7/   13.7/   14.0
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410202142/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Michigamme River
WLKM4       2.8/    2.7/    2.7/    2.6/    2.6/    2.5/    2.5
:Paint River
CRYM4       2.4/    2.4/    2.3/    2.2/    2.1/    2.0/    2.0
:Menominee River
FLOW3       3.7/    3.6/    3.5/    3.4/    3.3/    3.3/    3.3
NIAW3       6.0/    5.9/    5.8/    5.6/    5.5/    5.4/    5.3
VLCM4       6.0/    5.9/    5.8/    5.7/    5.6/    5.5/    5.5
MCAW3       9.6/    9.5/    9.4/    9.3/    9.2/    9.1/    9.1
.END

IN TABLE 4 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 4--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410202142/DRD+6/DVD90/QTVFZXT/QTVFZX9/QTVFZXH
.B1 /QTVFZX5/QTVFZXG/QTVFZX1/QTVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Michigamme River
WLKM4      0.43/   0.43/   0.44/   0.47/   0.59/   0.70/   0.77
:Paint River
CRYM4      0.44/   0.49/   0.65/   1.04/   1.44/   1.83/   2.10
:Menominee River
FLOW3      1.16/   1.45/   1.77/   2.60/   3.26/   4.20/   4.70
NIAW3      1.75/   2.05/   2.45/   3.73/   4.75/   5.97/   6.65
VLCM4      2.13/   2.45/   2.96/   4.63/   5.82/   7.52/   8.29
MCAW3      3.23/   3.60/   4.36/   6.44/   8.09/  10.43/  11.19
:Michigamme River
CYFM4      0.73/   0.73/   0.76/   1.08/   1.46/   1.75/   2.13
.END


IN TABLE 5 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOWS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 5--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410202142/DRD+6/DVD90/QTVFZNT/QTVFZN9/QTVFZNH
.B1 /QTVFZN5/QTVFZNG/QTVFZN1/QTVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Michigamme River
WLKM4      0.15/   0.14/   0.13/   0.12/   0.11/   0.10/   0.10
:Paint River
CRYM4      0.32/   0.30/   0.27/   0.25/   0.22/   0.21/   0.19
:Menominee River
FLOW3      1.18/   1.12/   1.03/   0.95/   0.89/   0.87/   0.84
NIAW3      1.72/   1.65/   1.53/   1.41/   1.32/   1.26/   1.23
VLCM4      1.92/   1.85/   1.72/   1.60/   1.53/   1.45/   1.42
MCAW3      2.68/   2.54/   2.36/   2.24/   2.12/   2.04/   1.99
:Michigamme River
CYFM4      0.33/   0.32/   0.30/   0.27/   0.25/   0.23/   0.23
.END



:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 202136
ESGCIW

IOWA RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
436 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Cedar River
LANM5            18.0   20.0   22.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ASTM5            15.0   18.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Turtle Creek
TRCM5            10.5   12.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar River
CCYI4            12.0   15.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
JANI4            13.0   15.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:West Fork Cedar River
FNHI4            17.0   18.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Winnebago River
MCWI4            10.0   14.5   15.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Shell Rock River
SHRI4            13.5   18.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
NHRI4            12.0   13.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar River
CEDI4            88.0   90.0   93.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ALOI4            13.0   19.0   21.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
VINI4            15.0   18.0   19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
CIDI4            12.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
CNEI4            13.0   15.0   16.5    14    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Iowa River
ROWI4            12.5   15.0   17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MIWI4            19.0   23.0   26.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MROI4            14.0   15.5   18.5    20   17   15    7   <5   <5
IOWI4            22.0   23.0   25.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:English River
KALI4            14.0   16.0   18.0    25   12   12    6    6   <5
:Iowa River
LNTI4            15.0   16.5   18.0     9   <5    6   <5   <5   <5
CJTI4            19.0   22.0   23.0    12    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
WAPI4            20.0   22.0   25.0    14    7    7    6   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410202136/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Cedar River
LANM5       8.9/    8.9/    9.2/   10.8/   13.0/   13.8/   14.0
ASTM5       3.1/    3.1/    3.2/    4.5/    6.1/    7.2/    7.3
:Turtle Creek
TRCM5       1.4/    1.4/    1.7/    2.7/    4.6/    6.0/    7.0
:Cedar River
CCYI4       2.0/    2.0/    2.6/    3.9/    5.9/    7.5/    8.5
JANI4       1.3/    1.3/    1.8/    2.7/    4.9/    6.3/    6.8
:West Fork Cedar River
FNHI4       6.4/    6.5/    7.1/    7.9/    9.9/   11.2/   12.0
:Winnebago River
MCWI4       3.3/    3.3/    3.7/    4.3/    5.1/    5.8/    6.0
:Shell Rock River
SHRI4       7.9/    7.9/    8.4/    9.1/   10.2/   10.5/   11.3
:Beaver Creek
NHRI4       2.6/    2.6/    2.8/    3.3/    4.6/    6.0/    6.5
:Cedar River
CEDI4      78.9/   79.0/   79.3/   80.8/   84.3/   86.9/   87.9
ALOI4       5.8/    5.9/    6.1/    6.8/    8.1/    9.3/   10.0
VINI4       2.8/    2.8/    3.3/    5.1/    8.0/   10.2/   10.9
CIDI4       3.8/    3.8/    4.3/    4.9/    6.3/    8.0/    8.3
CNEI4       6.5/    6.8/    7.5/    8.9/   10.5/   13.6/   14.1
:Iowa River
ROWI4       4.5/    4.7/    5.7/    7.0/    9.0/    9.9/   10.6
MIWI4      10.0/   10.1/   10.5/   11.4/   12.6/   14.4/   15.2
IOWI4      10.9/   11.4/   12.6/   13.7/   16.1/   16.4/   16.5
MROI4       7.1/    7.9/    8.6/   10.4/   13.3/   16.0/   16.5
:English River
KALI4       7.1/    8.1/    9.2/   11.7/   14.3/   17.1/   18.2
:Iowa River
LNTI4       5.5/    6.6/    7.5/   10.3/   12.1/   15.1/   17.4
CJTI4      10.7/   11.2/   12.4/   14.3/   16.2/   19.3/   21.1
WAPI4      13.0/   13.3/   14.6/   16.8/   18.9/   21.8/   23.2
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410202136/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Cedar River
LANM5       9.0/    9.0/    8.9/    8.9/    8.8/    8.8/    8.8
ASTM5       3.1/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8
:Turtle Creek
TRCM5       1.5/    1.4/    1.4/    1.3/    1.2/    1.2/    1.2
:Cedar River
CCYI4       2.1/    2.0/    2.0/    1.9/    1.8/    1.7/    1.7
JANI4       1.3/    1.3/    1.2/    1.1/    1.0/    0.9/    0.9
:West Fork Cedar River
FNHI4       6.3/    6.2/    6.1/    6.0/    5.9/    5.8/    5.8
:Winnebago River
MCWI4       3.4/    3.3/    3.2/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1
:Shell Rock River
SHRI4       7.9/    7.8/    7.7/    7.6/    7.6/    7.5/    7.5
:Beaver Creek
NHRI4       2.6/    2.5/    2.4/    2.2/    2.1/    2.0/    1.9
:Cedar River
CEDI4      78.9/   78.9/   78.8/   78.6/   78.5/   78.4/   78.4
ALOI4       5.8/    5.8/    5.7/    5.6/    5.5/    5.4/    5.4
VINI4       2.7/    2.6/    2.3/    2.1/    1.9/    1.7/    1.6
CIDI4       3.8/    3.8/    3.6/    3.5/    3.3/    3.2/    3.2
CNEI4       6.2/    6.1/    5.7/    5.5/    5.3/    5.1/    5.0
:Iowa River
ROWI4       4.5/    4.2/    3.9/    3.8/    3.5/    3.4/    3.4
MIWI4      10.0/    9.9/    9.7/    9.6/    9.4/    9.2/    9.2
IOWI4      10.7/   10.6/   10.2/    9.9/    9.7/    9.3/    9.2
MROI4       7.0/    7.0/    6.5/    6.3/    6.0/    5.7/    5.7
:English River
KALI4       5.4/    5.1/    4.8/    4.5/    4.3/    4.1/    4.0
:Iowa River
LNTI4       5.0/    4.9/    4.5/    3.9/    3.7/    3.2/    3.0
CJTI4      10.2/   10.1/    9.6/    9.2/    9.0/    8.7/    8.5
WAPI4      12.5/   12.3/   11.8/   11.3/   11.0/   10.6/   10.4
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 202136
ESGCIW

IOWA RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
436 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Cedar River
LANM5            18.0   20.0   22.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ASTM5            15.0   18.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Turtle Creek
TRCM5            10.5   12.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar River
CCYI4            12.0   15.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
JANI4            13.0   15.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:West Fork Cedar River
FNHI4            17.0   18.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Winnebago River
MCWI4            10.0   14.5   15.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Shell Rock River
SHRI4            13.5   18.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
NHRI4            12.0   13.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar River
CEDI4            88.0   90.0   93.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ALOI4            13.0   19.0   21.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
VINI4            15.0   18.0   19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
CIDI4            12.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
CNEI4            13.0   15.0   16.5    14    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Iowa River
ROWI4            12.5   15.0   17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MIWI4            19.0   23.0   26.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MROI4            14.0   15.5   18.5    20   17   15    7   <5   <5
IOWI4            22.0   23.0   25.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:English River
KALI4            14.0   16.0   18.0    25   12   12    6    6   <5
:Iowa River
LNTI4            15.0   16.5   18.0     9   <5    6   <5   <5   <5
CJTI4            19.0   22.0   23.0    12    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
WAPI4            20.0   22.0   25.0    14    7    7    6   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410202136/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Cedar River
LANM5       8.9/    8.9/    9.2/   10.8/   13.0/   13.8/   14.0
ASTM5       3.1/    3.1/    3.2/    4.5/    6.1/    7.2/    7.3
:Turtle Creek
TRCM5       1.4/    1.4/    1.7/    2.7/    4.6/    6.0/    7.0
:Cedar River
CCYI4       2.0/    2.0/    2.6/    3.9/    5.9/    7.5/    8.5
JANI4       1.3/    1.3/    1.8/    2.7/    4.9/    6.3/    6.8
:West Fork Cedar River
FNHI4       6.4/    6.5/    7.1/    7.9/    9.9/   11.2/   12.0
:Winnebago River
MCWI4       3.3/    3.3/    3.7/    4.3/    5.1/    5.8/    6.0
:Shell Rock River
SHRI4       7.9/    7.9/    8.4/    9.1/   10.2/   10.5/   11.3
:Beaver Creek
NHRI4       2.6/    2.6/    2.8/    3.3/    4.6/    6.0/    6.5
:Cedar River
CEDI4      78.9/   79.0/   79.3/   80.8/   84.3/   86.9/   87.9
ALOI4       5.8/    5.9/    6.1/    6.8/    8.1/    9.3/   10.0
VINI4       2.8/    2.8/    3.3/    5.1/    8.0/   10.2/   10.9
CIDI4       3.8/    3.8/    4.3/    4.9/    6.3/    8.0/    8.3
CNEI4       6.5/    6.8/    7.5/    8.9/   10.5/   13.6/   14.1
:Iowa River
ROWI4       4.5/    4.7/    5.7/    7.0/    9.0/    9.9/   10.6
MIWI4      10.0/   10.1/   10.5/   11.4/   12.6/   14.4/   15.2
IOWI4      10.9/   11.4/   12.6/   13.7/   16.1/   16.4/   16.5
MROI4       7.1/    7.9/    8.6/   10.4/   13.3/   16.0/   16.5
:English River
KALI4       7.1/    8.1/    9.2/   11.7/   14.3/   17.1/   18.2
:Iowa River
LNTI4       5.5/    6.6/    7.5/   10.3/   12.1/   15.1/   17.4
CJTI4      10.7/   11.2/   12.4/   14.3/   16.2/   19.3/   21.1
WAPI4      13.0/   13.3/   14.6/   16.8/   18.9/   21.8/   23.2
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410202136/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Cedar River
LANM5       9.0/    9.0/    8.9/    8.9/    8.8/    8.8/    8.8
ASTM5       3.1/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8
:Turtle Creek
TRCM5       1.5/    1.4/    1.4/    1.3/    1.2/    1.2/    1.2
:Cedar River
CCYI4       2.1/    2.0/    2.0/    1.9/    1.8/    1.7/    1.7
JANI4       1.3/    1.3/    1.2/    1.1/    1.0/    0.9/    0.9
:West Fork Cedar River
FNHI4       6.3/    6.2/    6.1/    6.0/    5.9/    5.8/    5.8
:Winnebago River
MCWI4       3.4/    3.3/    3.2/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1
:Shell Rock River
SHRI4       7.9/    7.8/    7.7/    7.6/    7.6/    7.5/    7.5
:Beaver Creek
NHRI4       2.6/    2.5/    2.4/    2.2/    2.1/    2.0/    1.9
:Cedar River
CEDI4      78.9/   78.9/   78.8/   78.6/   78.5/   78.4/   78.4
ALOI4       5.8/    5.8/    5.7/    5.6/    5.5/    5.4/    5.4
VINI4       2.7/    2.6/    2.3/    2.1/    1.9/    1.7/    1.6
CIDI4       3.8/    3.8/    3.6/    3.5/    3.3/    3.2/    3.2
CNEI4       6.2/    6.1/    5.7/    5.5/    5.3/    5.1/    5.0
:Iowa River
ROWI4       4.5/    4.2/    3.9/    3.8/    3.5/    3.4/    3.4
MIWI4      10.0/    9.9/    9.7/    9.6/    9.4/    9.2/    9.2
IOWI4      10.7/   10.6/   10.2/    9.9/    9.7/    9.3/    9.2
MROI4       7.0/    7.0/    6.5/    6.3/    6.0/    5.7/    5.7
:English River
KALI4       5.4/    5.1/    4.8/    4.5/    4.3/    4.1/    4.0
:Iowa River
LNTI4       5.0/    4.9/    4.5/    3.9/    3.7/    3.2/    3.0
CJTI4      10.2/   10.1/    9.6/    9.2/    9.0/    8.7/    8.5
WAPI4      12.5/   12.3/   11.8/   11.3/   11.0/   10.6/   10.4
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 201856
ESGM10

MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LAKE CITY..MINNESOTA TO
LOCK AND DAM 10 AT GUTTENBERG..IOWA
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
155 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:South Fork Zumbro River
RCHM5            14.0   18.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Zumbro River
ZUMM5            18.0   24.0   26.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Branch Root River
LNSM5            12.0   16.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Root River
HOUM5            15.0   17.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Upper Iowa River
DEHI4            12.0   13.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DCHI4            14.0   17.0   19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Turkey River
EKDI4            12.0   16.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
GRBI4            17.0   20.0   23.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Mississippi River
LKCM5            16.0   18.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
WABM5            12.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ALMW3            16.0   17.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MSCM5           660.0  662.0  665.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
WIDM5           656.0  659.0  661.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
WNAM5            13.0   15.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
TREW3           647.0  649.0  651.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LCRM5           641.0  643.0  645.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LACW3            12.0   13.0   15.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
GENW3           631.0  634.0  636.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LNSI4            17.0   19.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LYNW3           625.0  628.0  631.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MCGI4            16.0   19.0   22.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
GTTI4            15.0   18.0   21.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201855/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:South Fork Zumbro River
RCHM5       2.7/    2.9/    3.5/    4.7/    5.4/    6.4/    6.7
:Zumbro River
ZUMM5       5.0/    5.0/    5.4/    6.6/    7.6/    9.1/    9.8
:South Branch Root River
LNSM5       1.9/    1.9/    2.2/    3.4/    4.2/    5.8/    7.2
:Root River
HOUM5       3.1/    3.1/    3.5/    5.3/    6.8/    8.7/    9.9
:Upper Iowa River
DEHI4       2.1/    2.2/    2.8/    4.0/    4.8/    5.9/    7.2
DCHI4       7.3/    7.3/    7.9/    9.6/   10.5/   11.9/   13.9
:Turkey River
EKDI4       4.9/    5.0/    5.7/    6.8/    8.1/   10.4/   11.8
GRBI4       6.1/    6.3/    7.2/    8.6/   10.6/   12.3/   13.6
:Mississippi River
LKCM5       6.5/    6.5/    6.5/    6.9/    8.1/    9.9/   12.3
WABM5       7.2/    7.2/    7.2/    7.5/    8.1/    9.3/   11.1
ALMW3       4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    5.0/    5.9/    7.2/    9.2
MSCM5     651.3/  651.3/  651.3/  651.4/  652.3/  653.6/  655.9
WIDM5     645.9/  645.9/  645.9/  646.2/  647.0/  649.2/  651.4
WNAM5       5.6/    5.6/    5.6/    5.7/    6.2/    7.6/    9.9
TREW3     639.8/  639.8/  639.8/  640.3/  641.0/  642.2/  644.1
LCRM5     631.8/  631.8/  631.8/  632.6/  633.8/  635.3/  637.6
LACW3       5.1/    5.1/    5.1/    5.3/    6.2/    6.9/    9.4
GENW3     621.7/  621.8/  621.8/  622.8/  624.2/  626.1/  628.7
LNSI4       7.9/    7.9/    7.9/    8.2/    8.4/    8.9/   10.5
LYNW3     613.9/  613.9/  613.9/  615.2/  616.3/  618.2/  620.3
MCGI4       8.1/    8.1/    8.1/    9.0/   10.0/   11.5/   12.6
GTTI4       5.5/    5.5/    5.6/    8.1/    9.2/   10.8/   11.5
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201855/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:South Fork Zumbro River
RCHM5       2.6/    2.5/    2.5/    2.4/    2.4/    2.3/    2.3
:Zumbro River
ZUMM5       4.7/    4.6/    4.5/    4.4/    3.5/    3.4/    3.4
:South Branch Root River
LNSM5       1.9/    1.9/    1.8/    1.8/    1.7/    1.7/    1.7
:Root River
HOUM5       3.1/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    2.9/    2.8/    2.8
:Upper Iowa River
DEHI4       2.1/    2.1/    2.0/    2.0/    1.9/    1.8/    1.8
DCHI4       7.3/    7.2/    7.2/    7.1/    7.0/    7.0/    7.0
:Turkey River
EKDI4       4.9/    4.9/    4.8/    4.8/    4.7/    4.7/    4.7
GRBI4       6.1/    6.1/    6.0/    6.0/    5.9/    5.8/    5.8
:Mississippi River
LKCM5       6.1/    6.1/    6.0/    5.9/    5.9/    5.9/    5.9
WABM5       7.0/    7.0/    7.0/    6.9/    6.9/    6.9/    6.9
ALMW3       4.4/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    4.2/    4.2
MSCM5     651.1/  651.1/  651.1/  651.1/  651.1/  651.0/  651.0
WIDM5     645.8/  645.7/  645.7/  645.6/  645.6/  645.6/  645.6
WNAM5       5.6/    5.6/    5.5/    5.5/    5.5/    5.5/    5.5
TREW3     639.6/  639.6/  639.5/  639.4/  639.4/  639.4/  639.4
LCRM5     631.4/  631.4/  631.4/  631.3/  631.3/  631.3/  631.3
LACW3       4.9/    4.9/    4.9/    4.9/    4.8/    4.8/    4.8
GENW3     621.1/  621.0/  620.9/  620.8/  620.7/  620.7/  620.7
LNSI4       7.8/    7.8/    7.8/    7.8/    7.7/    7.7/    7.7
LYNW3     613.0/  612.9/  612.7/  612.5/  612.3/  612.2/  612.2
MCGI4       7.7/    7.6/    7.5/    7.4/    7.3/    7.3/    7.2
GTTI4       4.6/    4.5/    4.3/    4.1/    4.0/    3.9/    3.9
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 201840
ESGRDW

MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOVE RED WING..MINNESOTA
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
140 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Prairie River
TACM5            10.0   12.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Sauk River
STCM5             6.0    7.0    9.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Fork Crow River
MAYM5            11.0   15.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DELM5            16.5   17.5   18.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Crow River
RKFM5            10.0   12.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Minnesota River
SAVM5           702.0  710.0  712.0    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Snake River
PNCM5             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:St Croix River
STLM5            87.0   88.0   89.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Mississippi River
ATKM5            12.0   15.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FTRM5            10.0   12.5   26.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SCOM5             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MSPM5            16.0   16.5   17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
STPM5            14.0   15.0   17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
HSTM5            15.0   17.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
RDWM5           680.5  681.5  683.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
REDM5            14.0   15.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Long Prairie River
LGPM5             7.0    8.0   10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201840/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Prairie River
TACM5       2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.8/    3.2/    3.9/    4.3
:Long Prairie River
LGPM5       2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.7/    4.4/    6.2
:Sauk River
STCM5       1.6/    1.6/    1.6/    1.6/    1.8/    2.2/    3.5
:South Fork Crow River
MAYM5       2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.2/    3.2/    4.4/    5.3
DELM5       6.1/    6.1/    6.1/    6.2/    7.2/    8.6/    9.6
:Crow River
RKFM5       2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.8/    3.3/    3.8
:Minnesota River
SAVM5     687.6/  687.6/  687.6/  687.8/  688.9/  692.7/  696.8
:Snake River
PNCM5       3.1/    3.1/    3.2/    3.7/    4.6/    5.4/    5.9
:St Croix River
STLM5      75.5/   75.5/   75.5/   75.6/   76.6/   77.9/   81.7
:Mississippi River
ATKM5       6.5/    6.5/    6.5/    6.5/    7.1/    8.0/    8.6
FTRM5       5.2/    5.2/    5.2/    5.2/    5.5/    6.5/    7.2
SCOM5       5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.2/    5.9/    6.4
MSPM5       5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.1/    5.5/    6.5/    7.8
STPM5       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.4/    4.5/    6.3
HSTM5       4.7/    4.7/    4.7/    4.8/    5.5/    6.7/    9.2
RDWM5     668.1/  668.1/  668.1/  668.6/  671.1/  672.3/  674.8
REDM5       2.7/    2.7/    2.7/    3.1/    4.9/    6.2/    8.3
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201840/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Prairie River
TACM5       2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.4/    2.3/    2.2/    2.2
:Long Prairie River
LGPM5       2.1/    2.0/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8
:Sauk River
STCM5       1.6/    1.5/    1.3/    1.3/    1.3/    1.3/    1.2
:South Fork Crow River
MAYM5       2.1/    1.8/    1.6/    1.4/    1.4/    1.4/    1.4
DELM5       6.0/    5.7/    5.6/    5.5/    5.5/    5.5/    5.5
:Crow River
RKFM5       2.5/    2.4/    2.2/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1
:Minnesota River
SAVM5     687.4/  687.4/  687.4/  687.4/  687.4/  687.4/  687.4
:Snake River
PNCM5       3.1/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0
:St Croix River
STLM5      75.4/   75.4/   75.3/   75.2/   75.1/   75.1/   75.1
:Mississippi River
ATKM5       5.2/    4.9/    4.7/    4.5/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4
FTRM5       4.7/    4.6/    4.5/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4
SCOM5       4.7/    4.6/    4.5/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4
MSPM5       4.7/    4.7/    4.5/    4.4/    4.4/    4.3/    4.3
STPM5       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0
HSTM5       4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5
RDWM5     667.2/  667.0/  667.0/  667.0/  667.0/  667.0/  667.0
REDM5       2.2/    2.1/    1.9/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 201747
ESGDES

DES MOINES RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1246 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:East Fork Des Moines River
AGNI4            17.0   18.0   22.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DAKI4            20.0   24.0   28.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Boone River
WBCI4            14.0   17.0   19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
GRMI4            14.0   16.0   17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:North Raccoon River
EFWI4            19.0   21.0   23.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PROI4            15.0   18.0   20.0     7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Raccoon River
REDI4            20.0   24.0   27.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Raccoon River
VNMI4            17.0   22.0   23.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DMWI4            36.0   38.0   40.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DEMI4            12.0   16.0   25.0    18   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:North River
NRWI4            22.0   25.0   26.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Middle River
IDNI4            23.0   26.0   28.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South River
AKWI4            29.0   30.0   32.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar Creek
BSSI4            25.0   30.0   32.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Des Moines River
JCKM5            12.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ESVI4             8.0   13.0   14.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
EMTI4            11.0   13.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
HBTI4            10.0   13.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FODI4            10.5   16.0   17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
STRI4            21.0   25.0   27.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DMOI4            23.0   26.0   30.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DESI4            24.0   26.0   30.0     7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
EDYI4            61.0   68.0   70.0    18   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
OTMI4            11.0   15.0   19.0    15   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
KEQI4            22.0   25.0   27.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SFLM7            18.0   22.0   25.0    18   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201746/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:East Fork Des Moines River
AGNI4       7.5/    7.5/    7.6/    9.9/   12.4/   13.5/   14.0
DAKI4       8.2/    8.2/    8.3/    9.6/   10.7/   11.5/   11.9
:Boone River
WBCI4       2.1/    2.1/    2.6/    4.4/    6.0/    6.9/    8.2
:Beaver Creek
GRMI4       3.7/    3.7/    4.3/    6.4/    8.7/   11.0/   11.6
:North Raccoon River
EFWI4       5.4/    5.4/    6.7/    8.2/   10.2/   12.6/   13.0
PROI4       4.8/    4.8/    7.2/    9.7/   13.5/   14.8/   16.5
:South Raccoon River
REDI4       3.7/    3.9/    5.2/    6.4/    8.4/    9.7/   13.5
:Raccoon River
VNMI4       4.9/    4.9/    6.5/    7.9/   11.6/   14.1/   16.0
DMWI4      23.2/   23.3/   25.5/   27.6/   31.4/   33.8/   34.8
DEMI4       2.4/    2.6/    4.7/    7.1/   11.3/   13.5/   14.7
:North River
NRWI4       8.3/    8.3/    9.1/   13.0/   16.4/   19.6/   21.7
:Middle River
IDNI4       8.2/    9.1/   11.5/   14.2/   15.9/   18.5/   22.8
:South River
AKWI4       7.3/    7.4/    9.1/   11.2/   12.5/   20.8/   24.1
:Cedar Creek
BSSI4       5.9/    6.6/    8.3/   10.6/   13.5/   16.6/   20.2
:Des Moines River
JCKM5       4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.3/    5.3/    5.5
ESVI4       2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    3.0/    3.5/    3.7
EMTI4       0.9/    0.9/    0.9/    1.5/    2.8/    3.6/    4.3
HBTI4       3.8/    3.8/    3.8/    4.7/    5.9/    6.7/    8.0
FODI4       4.1/    4.1/    4.2/    5.2/    6.4/    7.3/    8.2
STRI4       6.0/    6.0/    6.5/    8.2/   10.3/   12.7/   14.5
DMOI4      15.6/   15.6/   16.0/   16.9/   19.7/   20.0/   20.1
DESI4      12.1/   12.2/   14.0/   16.5/   22.3/   23.9/   24.8
EDYI4      56.2/   56.2/   56.2/   57.0/   60.3/   61.4/   61.7
OTMI4       6.9/    6.9/    6.9/    7.5/   10.5/   11.6/   13.3
KEQI4      15.1/   15.1/   15.1/   15.7/   18.1/   19.9/   20.7
SFLM7      13.3/   13.3/   13.3/   14.1/   17.1/   19.5/   20.2
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201746/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:East Fork Des Moines River
AGNI4       7.4/    7.3/    7.3/    7.2/    7.0/    6.9/    6.9
DAKI4       8.1/    8.0/    7.9/    7.7/    7.6/    7.6/    7.6
:Boone River
WBCI4       2.1/    2.1/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9
:Beaver Creek
GRMI4       3.5/    3.5/    3.2/    3.0/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8
:North Raccoon River
EFWI4       5.5/    5.4/    5.3/    5.1/    5.0/    4.9/    4.9
PROI4       4.8/    4.7/    4.5/    4.2/    3.8/    3.6/    3.6
:South Raccoon River
REDI4       3.5/    3.4/    3.3/    3.2/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0
:Raccoon River
VNMI4       4.7/    4.4/    4.1/    3.9/    3.7/    3.5/    3.4
DMWI4      23.0/   22.6/   22.3/   22.1/   21.8/   21.5/   21.5
DEMI4       2.1/    1.8/    1.4/    1.1/    0.9/    0.7/    0.6
:North River
NRWI4       6.9/    6.3/    5.7/    5.5/    5.3/    5.3/    5.3
:Middle River
IDNI4       7.4/    7.1/    6.9/    6.7/    6.6/    6.5/    6.5
:South River
AKWI4       6.6/    6.4/    6.1/    6.1/    6.0/    6.0/    6.0
:Cedar Creek
BSSI4       5.5/    5.3/    5.2/    5.1/    5.1/    5.0/    5.0
:Des Moines River
JCKM5       3.9/    3.9/    3.7/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6
ESVI4       2.4/    2.4/    2.2/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.1
EMTI4       0.9/    0.9/    0.7/    0.5/    0.4/    0.4/    0.4
HBTI4       3.6/    3.4/    3.3/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    3.0
FODI4       3.9/    3.8/    3.6/    3.5/    3.3/    3.2/    3.2
STRI4       5.8/    5.6/    5.4/    5.2/    4.9/    4.9/    4.8
DMOI4      15.3/   15.3/   15.0/   14.9/   14.7/   14.7/   14.6
DESI4      11.4/   11.2/   10.5/   10.3/   10.0/    9.7/    9.6
EDYI4      51.1/   50.4/   49.7/   49.2/   48.8/   48.5/   48.4
OTMI4       3.3/    2.7/    2.2/    1.8/    1.5/    1.3/    1.2
KEQI4      12.4/   11.7/   11.1/   10.9/   10.6/   10.4/   10.3
SFLM7       9.2/    8.3/    7.6/    7.3/    6.9/    6.5/    6.4
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 201731
ESGTIA

MAQUOKETA..WAPSIPINICON..SKUNK RIVER BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1231 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Maquoketa River
MCHI4            14.0   17.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MAQI4            24.0   26.0   28.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Wapsipinicon River
IDPI4            12.0   13.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ANSI4            14.0   15.5   19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DEWI4            11.0   11.5   12.5    17   10   14    9   <5   <5
:South Skunk River
AMEI4            12.5   16.0   16.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Squaw Creek
AMWI4            10.0   14.0   15.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Skunk River
AESI4            21.5   23.5   24.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
CFXI4            18.0   19.0   21.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
OOAI4            24.5   28.5   30.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:North Skunk River
SIGI4            16.0   18.0   21.0    26   14   14   <5   <5   <5
:Skunk River
AGSI4            15.0   17.0   20.0     9   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201731/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Maquoketa River
MCHI4       3.8/    3.8/    4.4/    5.1/    6.9/    8.4/   10.6
MAQI4      10.6/   10.7/   11.8/   13.3/   15.0/   20.2/   24.7
:Wapsipinicon River
IDPI4       4.7/    4.7/    4.9/    5.4/    5.9/    6.5/    6.9
ANSI4       5.1/    5.1/    5.9/    6.8/    7.7/   10.6/   11.3
DEWI4       5.5/    6.1/    7.3/    8.4/    9.7/   12.1/   12.4
:South Skunk River
AMEI4       3.5/    3.6/    4.5/    6.0/    7.4/    8.8/    9.2
:Squaw Creek
AMWI4       1.5/    1.5/    2.4/    3.0/    4.5/    5.9/    6.1
:South Skunk River
AESI4       9.6/    9.8/   11.9/   14.0/   16.3/   18.5/   19.1
CFXI4       8.1/    8.1/    8.4/    9.6/   11.5/   13.8/   15.2
OOAI4      10.7/   10.7/   10.7/   12.5/   16.3/   19.1/   20.3
:North Skunk River
SIGI4       6.3/    6.6/    8.8/   11.9/   16.5/   19.2/   21.7
:Skunk River
AGSI4       4.3/    4.3/    5.1/    8.7/   12.0/   14.9/   17.4
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201731/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Maquoketa River
MCHI4       3.8/    3.8/    3.7/    3.7/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6
MAQI4      10.7/   10.6/   10.5/   10.3/   10.1/    9.9/    9.9
:Wapsipinicon River
IDPI4       4.7/    4.7/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6
ANSI4       5.1/    5.1/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    4.9/    4.9
DEWI4       5.3/    5.2/    5.2/    5.1/    5.0/    4.9/    4.8
:South Skunk River
AMEI4       3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.4/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2
:Squaw Creek
AMWI4       1.5/    1.5/    1.4/    1.4/    1.2/    1.2/    1.2
:South Skunk River
AESI4       9.6/    9.5/    9.4/    9.3/    9.1/    9.1/    9.1
CFXI4       8.1/    7.9/    7.6/    7.4/    7.2/    7.1/    7.1
OOAI4       9.8/    9.6/    8.7/    8.2/    7.8/    7.7/    7.7
:North Skunk River
SIGI4       5.7/    5.4/    4.9/    4.5/    4.3/    4.2/    4.2
:Skunk River
AGSI4       3.3/    2.8/    2.3/    1.9/    1.7/    1.5/    1.5
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 201730
ESGILO

ILLINOIS RIVER
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1229 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:North Branch Chicago River
NBAI2             7.0    7.5    8.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Illinois River
MORI2            16.0   18.0   22.0    35   17   23   14    7   <5
OTWI2           463.0  466.0  469.0    29   14   17   12    6   <5
LSLI2            20.0   27.0   31.0    54   32   17   12    6   <5
HNYI2            23.0   24.0   31.0    40   23   34   17   <5   <5
PIAI2            18.0   22.0   28.0    48   28   17   12   <5   <5
HAVI2            14.0   17.0   23.0    57   37   31   14   <5   <5
BEAI2            14.0   18.0   28.0    65   45   43   21    6   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201729/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Illinois River
MORI2       6.6/    7.6/    9.3/   12.9/   18.0/   21.9/   23.8
:North Branch Chicago River
NBAI2       2.5/    2.9/    3.7/    4.7/    5.4/    5.8/    6.1
:Illinois River
OTWI2     458.9/  459.1/  459.3/  461.2/  463.6/  468.2/  470.6
LSLI2      13.2/   13.9/   16.3/   21.1/   24.9/   29.7/   31.5
HNYI2      16.3/   16.3/   16.9/   21.4/   25.0/   27.6/   29.8
PIAI2      12.9/   13.0/   13.3/   18.0/   21.6/   24.1/   26.0
HAVI2       9.1/   10.2/   11.9/   15.0/   17.6/   19.8/   22.8
BEAI2      10.9/   11.2/   12.9/   17.0/   22.9/   26.3/   28.2
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201729/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:North Branch Chicago River
NBAI2       1.3/    1.3/    1.2/    1.1/    1.1/    1.0/    1.0
:Illinois River
MORI2       5.4/    5.3/    5.2/    5.1/    4.9/    4.9/    4.7
OTWI2     458.6/  458.6/  458.5/  458.5/  458.5/  458.5/  458.5
LSLI2      11.6/   11.5/   11.3/   11.1/   11.0/   10.9/   10.8
HNYI2      15.0/   14.9/   14.8/   14.7/   14.6/   14.5/   14.4
PIAI2      12.1/   12.0/   11.9/   10.6/   10.6/   10.6/   10.6
HAVI2       6.8/    5.9/    5.4/    5.0/    4.9/    4.9/    4.8
BEAI2      10.3/   10.1/    9.9/    9.6/    9.4/    9.2/    9.1
.END

IN TABLE 4 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED FLOW LEVELS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 4--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201729/DRD+6/DVD90/QTVFZXT/QTVFZX9/QTVFZXH
.B1 /QTVFZX5/QTVFZXG/QTVFZX1/QTVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Illinois River
MROI2     25.70/  34.64/  42.49/  49.43/  56.90/  67.34/  74.87
HARI2     31.11/  39.47/  45.82/  53.70/  61.37/  71.40/  89.85
.END


IN TABLE 5 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED FLOWS (KCFS) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 5--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201729/DRD+6/DVD90/QTVFZNT/QTVFZN9/QTVFZNH
.B1 /QTVFZN5/QTVFZNG/QTVFZN1/QTVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Flows (kcfs) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Illinois River
MROI2      9.38/   8.27/   7.61/   7.24/   6.63/   6.08/   5.36
HARI2     10.13/   9.02/   8.30/   7.87/   7.11/   6.48/   5.77
.END



:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 201729
ESGSRS

SOURIS RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1228 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Des Lacs River
DESN8            16.0   18.0   19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Souris River
SHWN8            18.0   20.0   25.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FOXN8            10.0   13.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MINN8            14.0   17.0   22.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MION8          1549.0 1551.0 1555.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LGNN8            34.0   36.0   38.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SWRN8            22.0   24.0   26.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
VLVN8          1505.0 1510.0 1515.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Wintering River
KLSN8             7.0    9.0   10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Souris River
TOWN8            52.0   54.0   56.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
BANN8            11.0   12.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Willow Creek
WLCN8            10.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Souris River
WSTN8            10.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201728/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Des Lacs River
DESN8       5.1/    5.1/    5.1/    5.1/    5.1/    5.3/    5.7
:Souris River
SHWN8       4.9/    4.9/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0/    5.0
FOXN8       7.4/    7.4/    7.4/    7.4/    7.4/    7.4/    7.4
MINN8       5.5/    5.5/    5.5/    5.5/    5.5/    5.5/    5.6
MION8    1541.2/ 1541.2/ 1541.2/ 1541.2/ 1541.2/ 1541.2/ 1541.3
LGNN8      22.7/   22.7/   22.7/   22.7/   22.7/   22.7/   23.3
SWRN8       8.7/    8.7/    8.7/    8.7/    8.7/    8.7/    9.1
VLVN8    1491.8/ 1491.8/ 1491.8/ 1491.8/ 1491.8/ 1491.8/ 1492.0
:Wintering River
KLSN8       1.8/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8/    2.4/    2.7
:Souris River
TOWN8      48.7/   48.7/   48.7/   48.7/   48.7/   48.7/   48.7
BANN8       7.1/    7.1/    7.1/    7.1/    7.1/    7.1/    7.1
:Willow Creek
WLCN8       4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    5.3
:Souris River
WSTN8       8.1/    8.1/    8.1/    8.1/    8.1/    8.1/    8.3
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201728/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Des Lacs River
DESN8       4.8/    4.8/    4.7/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6
:Souris River
SHWN8       0.6/    0.6/    0.6/    0.6/    0.6/    0.6/    0.6
FOXN8       4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.5
MINN8       4.1/    4.1/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    4.0
MION8    1537.2/ 1537.1/ 1536.9/ 1536.8/ 1536.8/ 1536.8/ 1536.8
LGNN8      18.9/   18.9/   18.8/   18.8/   18.8/   18.8/   18.8
SWRN8       5.9/    5.9/    5.7/    5.6/    5.6/    5.6/    5.6
VLVN8    1489.5/ 1489.3/ 1489.0/ 1489.0/ 1489.0/ 1489.0/ 1489.0
:Wintering River
KLSN8       1.7/    1.7/    1.6/    1.6/    1.6/    1.6/    1.6
:Souris River
TOWN8      44.4/   44.3/   44.2/   44.2/   44.2/   44.2/   44.1
BANN8       2.4/    2.3/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2
:Willow Creek
WLCN8       4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6/    4.6
:Souris River
WSTN8       6.6/    6.3/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2/    6.2
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 201715
ESGRCK

ROCK RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1215 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Rock River
WATW3             5.5    6.0    6.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Crawfish River
MILW3             7.0    9.0   10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rock River
JFFW3            10.0   11.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FATW3            16.0   17.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
NVLW3            10.0   11.0   11.5    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
AFTW3             9.0   11.1   12.2    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Turtle Creek
CLIW3             8.0   10.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pecatonica River
DARW3            13.5   15.0   16.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:East Branch Pecatonica River
BCHW3            11.0   14.0   16.0    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pecatonica River
MTNW3            13.5   18.0   21.0     6    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
FEEI2            13.0   14.0   16.0     9   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Sugar River
ALBW3            12.0   13.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
BROW3             5.0    8.0   10.0    21   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pecatonica River
SIRI2            12.0   14.0   15.5     7    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rock River
ROKI2            10.0   11.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LATI2            10.0   11.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
RABI2             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kishwaukee River
BVDI2             9.0   10.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Branch Kishwaukee River
DEKI2            10.0   11.0   12.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kishwaukee River
PRYI2            12.0   18.0   22.0     6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rock River
BYRI2            13.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DXRI2            16.0   18.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
CMOI2            10.0   11.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
JOSI2            12.0   14.0   16.5    10    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Green River
GENI2            15.0   16.5   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rock River
MLII2            12.0   13.0   14.0     7    9   <5    6   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201715/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Rock River
WATW3       1.9/    1.9/    1.9/    2.2/    2.6/    3.3/    3.8
:Crawfish River
MILW3       2.3/    2.3/    2.3/    2.8/    3.4/    4.4/    5.3
:Rock River
JFFW3       3.9/    3.9/    3.9/    4.5/    5.3/    6.7/    8.0
FATW3      11.1/   11.1/   11.2/   11.6/   12.1/   13.2/   13.8
NVLW3       6.1/    6.1/    6.1/    6.1/    6.5/    8.3/    9.1
AFTW3       4.8/    4.8/    4.9/    5.3/    5.8/    7.3/    7.9
:Turtle Creek
CLIW3       3.7/    3.9/    4.3/    4.9/    5.4/    6.4/    6.8
:Pecatonica River
DARW3       2.2/    2.3/    2.8/    3.6/    5.3/    7.1/   10.7
:East Branch Pecatonica River
BCHW3       4.3/    4.6/    5.4/    7.3/    8.7/   10.3/   11.0
:Pecatonica River
MTNW3       5.1/    5.3/    6.2/    7.4/    8.5/   11.5/   13.9
FEEI2       4.1/    5.0/    6.5/    7.8/   10.1/   13.0/   13.8
:Sugar River
ALBW3       4.3/    4.6/    5.7/    6.4/    7.6/   10.0/   11.1
BROW3       1.6/    1.8/    2.6/    3.2/    4.5/    6.1/    7.9
:Pecatonica River
SIRI2       4.8/    5.5/    7.2/    8.2/    9.8/   11.9/   12.6
:Rock River
ROKI2       3.6/    3.7/    4.5/    5.2/    6.4/    7.8/    9.0
LATI2       4.3/    4.4/    5.0/    5.6/    6.5/    7.7/    8.7
RABI2       2.7/    2.7/    3.0/    3.1/    3.3/    3.5/    3.8
:Kishwaukee River
BVDI2       2.2/    2.4/    3.2/    4.8/    5.7/    6.8/    7.7
:South Branch Kishwaukee River
DEKI2       2.9/    3.1/    3.8/    4.9/    5.6/    6.6/    7.9
:Kishwaukee River
PRYI2       6.0/    6.2/    7.0/    8.7/   10.2/   11.1/   12.1
:Rock River
BYRI2       5.6/    5.8/    7.0/    7.9/    9.0/   10.5/   11.4
DXRI2       8.3/    8.4/    8.9/    9.5/   10.4/   12.0/   13.3
CMOI2       3.5/    3.6/    4.3/    5.0/    5.7/    7.0/    8.3
JOSI2       5.2/    5.3/    6.6/    8.4/    9.7/   12.1/   13.3
:Green River
GENI2       3.2/    3.8/    4.4/    6.7/    8.9/   12.4/   13.9
:Rock River
MLII2       8.2/    8.3/    8.9/    9.7/   10.7/   11.8/   12.8
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201715/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Rock River
WATW3       1.8/    1.7/    1.5/    1.3/    1.3/    1.2/    1.2
:Crawfish River
MILW3       2.1/    2.1/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9/    1.8/    1.8
:Rock River
JFFW3       3.7/    3.7/    3.4/    3.3/    3.3/    3.2/    3.2
FATW3      11.0/   10.9/   10.7/   10.6/   10.6/   10.5/   10.5
NVLW3       5.8/    5.8/    5.7/    5.7/    5.7/    5.6/    5.6
AFTW3       3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.1/    2.9/    2.8/    2.8
:Turtle Creek
CLIW3       3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5
:Pecatonica River
DARW3       2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9/    1.9
:East Branch Pecatonica River
BCHW3       4.1/    4.1/    4.1/    4.0/    3.9/    3.9/    3.9
:Pecatonica River
MTNW3       4.7/    4.7/    4.6/    4.4/    4.2/    3.9/    3.9
FEEI2       3.7/    3.6/    3.4/    3.2/    3.0/    2.7/    2.5
:Sugar River
ALBW3       4.0/    4.0/    4.0/    3.9/    3.8/    3.7/    3.7
BROW3       1.3/    1.3/    1.2/    1.1/    1.0/    0.9/    0.8
:Pecatonica River
SIRI2       4.6/    4.5/    4.3/    4.1/    3.7/    3.4/    3.2
:Rock River
ROKI2       3.1/    3.0/    2.9/    2.7/    2.5/    2.4/    2.3
LATI2       4.0/    4.0/    3.9/    3.7/    3.6/    3.4/    3.3
RABI2       2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.3/    2.2/    2.1/    2.0
:Kishwaukee River
BVDI2       1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.4/    1.4/    1.3/    1.3
:South Branch Kishwaukee River
DEKI2       2.9/    2.9/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.7
:Kishwaukee River
PRYI2       5.6/    5.6/    5.6/    5.5/    5.4/    5.4/    5.3
:Rock River
BYRI2       5.3/    5.3/    5.2/    5.0/    4.8/    4.7/    4.7
DXRI2       8.2/    8.2/    8.1/    8.0/    7.9/    7.8/    7.8
CMOI2       3.3/    3.2/    3.2/    3.0/    2.9/    2.7/    2.7
JOSI2       4.9/    4.7/    4.6/    4.4/    4.1/    3.9/    3.8
:Green River
GENI2       3.1/    3.0/    2.9/    2.8/    2.7/    2.6/    2.4
:Rock River
MLII2       8.1/    8.0/    8.0/    7.9/    7.8/    7.7/    7.6
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 201651
ESGGND

GRAND..MUSKEGON..WHITE..PERE MARQUETTE RIVER BASINS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1150 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Red Cedar River
WMSM4             9.0   10.0   10.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ELNM4             7.0   10.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Sycamore Creek
HHTM4             8.0    9.0   10.0    12   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Looking Glass River
EAGM4             7.0    9.0   11.0    25   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Maple River
MRPM4             9.0   11.0   13.0    23   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Thornapple River
HSTM4             7.0    9.0   10.0    <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
CLDM4            10.0   12.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rogue River
ROCM4             8.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Flat River
SMYM4             8.5    9.5   10.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Grand River
JACM4            14.0   15.0   16.0    <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
ETNM4             6.0    8.0    9.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DMDM4            13.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LNSM4            11.0   13.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
GDLM4            11.0   13.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PORM4            12.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
IONM4            21.0   23.0   25.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LWLM4            15.0   18.0   20.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ADAM4            20.0   22.0   25.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
GDRM4            18.0   21.0   23.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Muskegon River
EVRM4            12.0   13.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Muskegon River
MORM4             6.0    7.0    8.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Muskegon River
CROM4             9.0   11.0   12.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:White River
WHTM4             6.0    7.0    8.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pere Marquette River
SCTM4             5.5    6.5    7.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201650/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Red Cedar River
WMSM4       3.5/    4.1/    5.2/    6.1/    6.8/    7.7/    8.2
ELNM4       3.8/    4.0/    4.6/    5.5/    6.0/    6.6/    7.0
:Sycamore Creek
HHTM4       5.2/    5.3/    6.5/    7.1/    7.6/    8.2/    8.3
:Looking Glass River
EAGM4       3.3/    3.9/    4.8/    6.1/    7.0/    8.1/    8.7
:Maple River
MRPM4       5.0/    6.1/    7.1/    8.3/    9.0/    9.3/    9.4
:Thornapple River
HSTM4       3.3/    3.6/    4.3/    5.5/    6.5/    6.8/    7.5
CLDM4       4.0/    4.4/    5.2/    6.4/    7.8/    8.4/   10.2
:Rogue River
ROCM4       4.3/    4.9/    5.3/    6.1/    7.0/    7.6/    7.9
:Flat River
SMYM4       3.8/    4.3/    4.9/    5.3/    6.0/    6.8/    7.1
:Grand River
JACM4      10.2/   10.4/   11.1/   11.8/   12.8/   13.5/   13.9
ETNM4       3.6/    3.6/    3.8/    4.1/    4.4/    4.7/    4.9
DMDM4       4.8/    5.1/    5.8/    6.9/    7.9/    8.5/    8.9
LNSM4       3.4/    3.8/    4.5/    6.1/    7.7/    8.4/    9.4
GDLM4       5.3/    5.5/    5.8/    6.6/    7.5/    7.8/    8.3
PORM4       6.4/    6.6/    7.4/    8.5/    9.5/   10.0/   10.4
IONM4       9.3/   10.3/   11.9/   15.1/   17.5/   18.7/   19.5
LWLM4       5.8/    6.9/    7.3/    9.3/   11.7/   12.7/   13.6
ADAM4       7.4/    9.0/   10.2/   12.9/   16.2/   17.0/   18.2
GDRM4       3.6/    4.4/    5.9/    9.2/   13.5/   14.7/   16.1
:Muskegon River
EVRM4       7.4/    7.5/    8.0/    8.5/    9.4/   10.2/   10.8
:Little Muskegon River
MORM4       2.3/    2.5/    2.8/    3.2/    3.7/    4.4/    4.7
OKGM4       3.7/    4.1/    4.5/    5.2/    5.8/    6.8/    7.6
:Muskegon River
CROM4       5.0/    5.3/    5.9/    6.6/    7.4/    8.1/    8.9
:White River
WHTM4       1.8/    2.1/    3.0/    3.8/    4.7/    5.2/    5.4
:Pere Marquette River
SCTM4       1.9/    2.0/    2.6/    3.4/    3.9/    4.3/    5.0
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201650/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Red Cedar River
WMSM4       2.6/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.4/    2.4/    2.3
ELNM4       3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.2/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1
:Sycamore Creek
HHTM4       3.2/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1/    3.1
:Looking Glass River
EAGM4       2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    2.8/    2.8/    2.8/    2.7
:Maple River
MRPM4       3.4/    3.3/    3.2/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0/    2.8
:Thornapple River
HSTM4       3.0/    2.9/    2.9/    2.9/    2.8/    2.8/    2.7
CLDM4       3.5/    3.4/    3.3/    3.2/    3.1/    3.0/    2.9
:Rogue River
ROCM4       4.1/    4.0/    4.0/    3.9/    3.8/    3.8/    3.8
:Flat River
SMYM4       3.8/    3.7/    3.6/    3.6/    3.5/    3.4/    3.3
:Grand River
JACM4       9.2/    9.1/    9.0/    8.9/    8.8/    8.8/    8.7
ETNM4       3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5
DMDM4       4.4/    4.3/    4.3/    4.2/    4.1/    4.1/    4.0
LNSM4       2.7/    2.7/    2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.5/    2.5
GDLM4       4.8/    4.7/    4.7/    4.7/    4.6/    4.6/    4.5
PORM4       5.6/    5.5/    5.5/    5.4/    5.4/    5.3/    5.3
IONM4       8.3/    8.3/    8.2/    8.1/    7.9/    7.8/    7.7
LWLM4       5.1/    5.1/    5.0/    5.0/    4.9/    4.8/    4.7
ADAM4       6.2/    6.2/    6.0/    5.7/    5.4/    5.3/    4.9
GDRM4       3.3/    3.3/    3.2/    3.1/    3.1/    3.0/    3.0
:Muskegon River
EVRM4       7.4/    7.3/    7.2/    7.1/    7.0/    6.9/    6.9
:Little Muskegon River
MORM4       2.3/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2/    2.2
OKGM4       3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.3
:Muskegon River
CROM4       5.0/    4.9/    4.8/    4.7/    4.6/    4.6/    4.5
:White River
WHTM4       1.6/    1.6/    1.5/    1.4/    1.4/    1.3/    1.3
:Pere Marquette River
SCTM4       1.8/    1.8/    1.7/    1.6/    1.5/    1.4/    1.4
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






000
FGUS63 KMSR 201609
ESGMIN

MINNESOTA RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1109 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Little Minnesota River
PVRS2            17.0   22.0   24.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Minnesota River
BSLM5           971.5  973.0  975.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Redwood River
MSHM5            14.0   15.0   16.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
RWDM5             6.0   15.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cottonwood River
NWUM5            11.0   13.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Minnesota River
MVOM5            14.0   16.0   17.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
GTEM5           888.5  893.5  896.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
MNKM5            22.0   25.0   30.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
HENM5           732.0  736.0  739.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
JDNM5            25.0   28.0   34.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201609/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Little Minnesota River
PVRS2      10.3/   10.3/   10.3/   10.3/   10.3/   10.7/   11.0
:Redwood River
MSHM5       6.9/    6.9/    6.9/    6.9/    7.1/    8.3/    8.8
RWDM5       1.7/    1.7/    1.7/    1.7/    1.7/    2.8/    3.3
:Cottonwood River
NWUM5       2.6/    2.6/    2.6/    2.8/    4.7/    6.7/    8.2
:Minnesota River
MVOM5       4.7/    4.7/    4.7/    5.0/    6.5/   11.1/   11.4
GTEM5     881.6/  881.6/  881.6/  881.6/  882.3/  884.0/  884.1
MNKM5       4.3/    4.3/    4.3/    5.0/    7.6/    9.3/   10.8
HENM5     714.8/  714.8/  714.8/  716.1/  719.7/  721.7/  723.8
JDNM5       6.3/    6.3/    6.3/    7.6/   11.0/   13.5/   16.3
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 1020 Z DH12 /DC1410201609/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 10/27/2014 - 1/25/2015
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Little Minnesota River
PVRS2      10.2/   10.2/   10.1/   10.1/   10.1/   10.1/   10.1
:Redwood River
MSHM5       6.9/    6.9/    6.8/    6.8/    6.8/    6.8/    6.8
RWDM5       1.7/    1.7/    1.6/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5/    1.5
:Cottonwood River
NWUM5       2.6/    2.6/    2.5/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4
:Minnesota River
MVOM5       4.1/    4.0/    3.6/    3.4/    3.3/    3.3/    3.3
GTEM5     881.3/  881.2/  880.9/  880.8/  880.8/  880.8/  880.8
MNKM5       3.5/    3.3/    3.1/    2.8/    2.7/    2.6/    2.6
HENM5     713.8/  713.5/  713.2/  712.7/  712.5/  712.3/  712.3
JDNM5       5.6/    5.3/    5.0/    4.7/    4.5/    4.4/    4.4
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$






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