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000
FGUS64 KTUA 241504
ESGSHV

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK
1003 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
             Valid  4/24/2014 - 7/24/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR MOD MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
-------- ----- ----- -----: ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

:Red River
DEKT2            24.0   27.0   30.0     9   37    5   19   <5    9
INGA4            25.0   26.0   28.0    <5    7   <5    5   <5   <5
FLTA4            27.0   30.0   32.5    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Glover River
GLOO2            16.0   19.0   22.0    24   33   14   20    7   12

:Little River
IDBO2            30.0   32.0   34.0    31   45   15   31   <5   13
HRGA4            27.0   28.5   30.0    16   36   12   27    8   12

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B TUA 0424 Z DH12 /DC201404241503/DRD+6/DVD91/HGVFZXT
.B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:    Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
:            Valid  4/24/2014 - 7/24/2014
:
:        95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
:        ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
:Red River
DEKT2   10.7/  11.5/  15.2/  17.4/  20.3/  23.5/  27.8
INGA4    2.2/   2.8/   5.2/   7.1/  10.2/  14.3/  21.8
FLTA4    1.5/   2.1/   4.8/   7.7/  11.1/  15.5/  22.8

:Glover River
GLOO2    5.6/   5.9/   6.8/  12.7/  16.0/  20.5/  23.4

:Little River
IDBO2   11.3/  11.6/  18.1/  28.1/  30.7/  32.8/  33.7
HRGA4   10.2/  11.6/  15.1/  20.4/  23.8/  29.4/  31.4

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued monthly
:throughout the year.

.END

$$






000
FGUS64 KTUA 241504
ESGDDC

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK
1003 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
             Valid  4/24/2014 - 7/24/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR MOD MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
-------- ----- ----- -----: ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

:Arkansas River
COOK1             8.0   10.0   15.0     8   11    6    6   <5   <5
SYRK1            10.0   13.0   18.0     6    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
GCKK1            10.0   13.0   16.0     6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
DDCK1            11.0   16.0   18.0     5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
KNSK1            12.0   14.0   16.0     6    6   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Walnut Creek
AERK1            31.0   33.0   35.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
RCNK1            29.0   31.0   33.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Buckner Creek
BETK1            16.0   21.0   25.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Pawnee River
BTTK1            30.0   31.0   32.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SANK1            24.0   26.0   28.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Rattlesnake Creek
MACK1             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ZENK1            17.0   17.5   18.0    <5    8   <5    6   <5   <5

:Crooked Creek
ENWK1             6.5    8.0   10.0     9   11   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Cimarron River
FRGO2             5.0    6.0    7.0     5    8   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Medicine Lodge River
KIOK1            10.0   12.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B TUA 0424 Z DH12 /DC201404241503/DRD+6/DVD91/HGVFZXT
.B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:    Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
:            Valid  4/24/2014 - 7/24/2014
:
:        95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
:        ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
:Arkansas River
COOK1    3.1/   3.1/   3.3/   3.6/   4.1/   6.9/  11.1
SYRK1    3.8/   3.9/   4.0/   4.3/   4.8/   7.2/  11.8
GCKK1    5.4/   5.5/   5.9/   6.1/   6.5/   7.2/  10.8
DDCK1    6.0/   6.0/   6.0/   6.0/   7.2/   8.5/  11.2
KNSK1    5.4/   5.4/   5.4/   5.5/   6.3/   8.3/  13.0

:Walnut Creek
AERK1    1.3/   1.7/   2.0/   6.7/  13.3/  18.2/  26.2
RCNK1    5.9/   6.3/   9.1/  13.4/  18.4/  23.1/  27.3

:Buckner Creek
BETK1    4.0/   4.0/   4.0/   5.1/   8.1/  11.7/  12.6

:Pawnee River
BTTK1    2.5/   2.5/   2.5/   3.9/   7.6/  12.8/  15.9
SANK1    5.4/   5.4/   6.0/   7.3/   9.8/  12.1/  15.8

:Rattlesnake Creek
MACK1    3.4/   3.4/   3.4/   4.7/   6.1/   7.4/   7.7
ZENK1   12.1/  12.1/  12.3/  13.1/  14.4/  15.4/  17.0

:Crooked Creek
ENWK1    3.5/   3.6/   4.0/   4.7/   5.7/   6.5/   7.3

:Cimarron River
FRGO2    3.0/   3.1/   3.3/   3.6/   3.9/   4.7/   5.1

:Medicine Lodge River
KIOK1    1.4/   1.6/   2.1/   3.2/   4.1/   5.6/   7.6

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued monthly
:throughout the year.

.END

$$






000
FGUS64 KTUA 241504
ESGICT

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK
1003 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
             Valid  4/24/2014 - 7/24/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR MOD MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
-------- ----- ----- -----: ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

:Arkansas River
GTBK1            12.0   16.0   18.3    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
HCHK1             8.0   13.0   19.0     6    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
HAVK1            10.0   11.0   12.0     7   10    5    7   <5    5
DRBK1            12.0   15.0   16.2     6    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
MULK1            16.5   19.0   21.0     8   10   <5    5   <5   <5
OXFK1            17.0   20.0   23.0    13   13    5    7   <5   <5
ARCK1            17.0   23.0   27.0    24   30    5    6   <5   <5

:Walnut Creek
ALBK1            24.0   25.0   25.7    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Cow Creek
LYNK1            18.0   22.0   24.7    11   11   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Little Arkansas River
ALMK1            22.0   25.0   27.0    14   17    9   11   <5   <5
HTDK1            25.0   27.0   29.0     9   12    6    7   <5   <5
SEDK1            22.0   25.0   26.0    15   17    7    9    5    7

:Cowskin Creek
COWK1            18.0   22.0   24.0    12   14   <5   <5   <5   <5

:South Fork Ninnescah River
MDKK1             8.0   10.0   12.0     9   19   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Ninnescah River
PECK1            17.0   21.0   26.0     7    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
BLPK1            23.0   24.5   26.0     6   10   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Whitewater River
TOWK1            22.0   25.0   28.0    17   18   11   11   <5    5
AGSK1            21.0   25.0   30.0    19   20   10   12   <5    6

:West Branch Walnut River
EDWK1            21.0   22.0   24.0    18   21   16   19   13   15

:Walnut River
EDEK1            19.0   23.0   25.6    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
AGAK1            23.0   28.0   36.0    18   20    6   10   <5   <5
WFDK1            18.0   22.0   29.0    29   36   21   29   12   16
ARKK1            18.0   22.0   28.0    21   25    8   13   <5   <5

:Chikaskia River
CBNK1            10.0   19.0   28.0    26   38   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Fall River
FRNK1            17.0   27.0   36.0    37   36   15   14    6   <5

:Verdigris River
ATOK1            19.0   21.0   26.0    29   26   13    9   <5   <5
IDPK1            30.0   47.6   53.0    42   37   <5   <5   <5   <5
CFVK1            18.0   23.0   26.5    29   23   13   12   <5   <5

:Cottonwood River
FLRK1            22.0   27.0   32.0    22   29    5   <5   <5   <5
CTWK1             9.0   11.0   18.0    25   42   18   31   <5   <5
PLYK1            32.0   34.0   37.0    25   33   12   25   <5   <5

:Neosho River
IOLK1            15.0   21.0   27.0    26   32   <5   <5   <5   <5
CNUK1            23.0   28.5   35.0    43   43   23   25   <5   <5
EREK1            29.0   32.0   36.0    45   49   37   39   25   26
PPFK1            21.0   23.0   32.0    53   58   41   52   <5   <5
OSWK1            17.0   20.0   25.0    55   56   40   44   10   13

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B TUA 0424 Z DH12 /DC201404241503/DRD+6/DVD91/HGVFZXT
.B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:    Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
:            Valid  4/24/2014 - 7/24/2014
:
:        95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
:        ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
:Arkansas River
GTBK1    1.3/   1.7/   2.2/   3.0/   4.5/   7.2/   9.6
HCHK1    1.5/   1.6/   2.2/   2.9/   4.0/   6.6/   8.7
HAVK1    2.5/   3.1/   3.9/   5.0/   6.6/   8.8/  11.5
DRBK1    2.1/   2.4/   3.4/   4.9/   8.3/  10.4/  12.7
MULK1    7.7/   7.9/   8.4/   9.4/  12.7/  15.6/  17.9
OXFK1    8.6/   9.1/  10.3/  12.5/  15.1/  17.5/  20.4
ARCK1    9.8/  10.0/  11.8/  13.9/  17.0/  20.1/  23.0

:Walnut Creek
ALBK1    2.5/   4.4/   5.6/   7.9/  11.0/  16.7/  23.1

:Cow Creek
LYNK1    4.8/   7.5/   9.9/  14.2/  16.4/  18.1/  18.6

:Little Arkansas River
ALMK1    1.4/   3.6/   7.3/  12.2/  16.4/  24.8/  26.8
HTDK1    6.4/   8.0/  10.5/  14.2/  18.3/  24.9/  27.9
SEDK1    3.6/   6.3/   8.3/  11.5/  18.5/  23.8/  26.0

:Cowskin Creek
COWK1    7.0/   7.7/  11.0/  13.3/  15.7/  18.5/  19.2

:South Fork Ninnescah River
MDKK1    4.1/   4.2/   4.7/   5.2/   6.9/   7.9/   8.7

:Ninnescah River
PECK1    3.6/   4.4/   5.6/   7.7/  12.9/  15.8/  17.9
BLPK1    9.7/  10.7/  11.8/  13.7/  17.8/  21.6/  23.8

:Whitewater River
TOWK1    3.3/   4.0/   5.9/   9.8/  18.5/  25.9/  27.1
AGSK1    5.5/   5.8/   8.2/  12.6/  18.3/  25.3/  28.2

:West Branch Walnut River
EDWK1    6.0/   6.8/   8.4/  11.9/  17.1/  25.9/  30.0

:Walnut River
EDEK1    2.5/   2.9/   3.8/   6.9/  11.4/  14.1/  17.1
AGAK1    6.0/   6.7/   8.3/  15.1/  20.1/  26.4/  28.9
WFDK1    2.5/   3.4/   6.8/  10.5/  19.7/  30.9/  32.1
ARKK1    4.0/   5.4/   7.9/  11.1/  16.6/  21.8/  22.8

:Chikaskia River
CBNK1    2.1/   2.1/   5.6/   8.4/  10.1/  13.7/  15.6

:Fall River
FRNK1    4.3/   6.2/   8.8/  14.0/  20.1/  31.5/  37.8

:Verdigris River
ATOK1    4.5/   6.4/   9.0/  16.0/  19.6/  21.5/  22.5
IDPK1    7.8/  10.3/  16.5/  27.0/  37.2/  42.5/  43.5
CFVK1    2.4/   2.9/   5.6/  13.5/  18.9/  24.1/  25.6

:Cottonwood River
FLRK1    3.4/   3.5/   4.7/   6.8/  21.3/  25.8/  27.0
CTWK1    0.8/   1.2/   2.2/   4.0/   9.1/  13.4/  14.8
PLYK1    3.9/   6.4/   8.4/  18.1/  32.4/  34.4/  35.2

:Neosho River
IOLK1    8.7/   9.0/  10.2/  11.5/  15.2/  18.6/  20.8
CNUK1   11.2/  12.2/  16.1/  21.2/  28.0/  33.0/  34.3
EREK1   15.6/  16.2/  20.9/  27.6/  36.1/  40.6/  42.7
PPFK1   11.1/  11.7/  16.6/  21.7/  25.7/  27.8/  29.4
OSWK1    9.3/   9.7/  11.7/  18.4/  22.4/  25.2/  26.7

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued monthly
:throughout the year.

.END

$$






000
FGUS64 KTUA 241504
ESGPUB

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK
1003 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
             Valid  4/24/2014 - 8/21/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR MOD MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
-------- ----- ----- -----: ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

:Arkansas River
LEDC2             9.0   10.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SALC2             8.0    9.0   10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
WSVC2             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PDLC2             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
CNCC2            10.0   12.0   14.0    <5   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
PRTC2             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PDAC2             8.0    9.0   11.0    25   25   <5   <5   <5   <5
ADLC2             7.0    8.0    9.0    30   40   15   24    8   17
NPTC2            16.5   17.5   18.5     9   21    7   13   <5    6
CDMC2             8.0    9.0   10.0     8   17    6   10   <5    6
ARCC2            10.0   11.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LXHC2            11.0   13.0   15.0    35   28    8    8   <5   <5
LMAC2            11.0   13.0   15.0    <5    9   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Fountain Creek
FNEC2             8.0   11.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FHAC2             8.0   10.0   12.0     9   14    5    7   <5   <5
PNNC2             7.0    9.0   10.0     8   10    5    6   <5    5
FCHC2            10.0   12.0   13.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:St. Charles River
SCVC2            12.0   15.0   18.0    13   22    9   15    7    9

:Purgatoire River
PGMC2             7.0    9.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PGRC2            10.0   12.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PTRC2            11.0   12.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LAPC2             9.0   12.0   15.0    13   23   <5    8   <5    5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B TUA 0424 Z DH12 /DC201404241503/DRD+6/DVD119/HGVFZXT
.B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:    Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
:            Valid  4/24/2014 - 8/21/2014
:
:        95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
:        ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
:Arkansas River
LEDC2    6.7/   6.7/   7.1/   7.4/   7.8/   8.0/   8.1
SALC2    4.1/   4.2/   4.3/   4.6/   4.8/   5.0/   5.1
WSVC2    5.4/   5.4/   5.6/   5.9/   6.2/   6.3/   6.5
PDLC2    4.4/   4.4/   4.6/   5.0/   5.2/   5.5/   5.7
CNCC2    7.2/   7.3/   7.5/   7.8/   8.0/   8.3/   8.5
PRTC2    3.8/   3.9/   4.1/   4.6/   5.0/   5.4/   5.9
PDAC2    4.6/   5.2/   5.6/   6.8/   8.0/   8.1/   8.3
ADLC2    4.3/   4.4/   5.3/   6.5/   7.2/   8.5/  10.9
NPTC2   14.0/  14.1/  14.5/  14.9/  15.6/  16.5/  18.3
CDMC2    3.8/   4.1/   4.6/   5.6/   6.4/   7.4/   9.7
ARCC2    3.1/   3.2/   3.5/   4.1/   4.9/   5.4/   7.5
LXHC2    8.3/   8.5/   9.1/  10.4/  11.4/  12.4/  14.3
LMAC2    5.1/   5.2/   5.3/   5.6/   6.2/   8.2/   8.7

:Fountain Creek
FNEC2    2.5/   2.5/   2.8/   3.2/   3.7/   4.0/   4.2
FHAC2    4.3/   4.5/   4.6/   5.1/   5.5/   7.7/  10.5
PNNC2    2.5/   2.6/   2.9/   3.4/   4.0/   5.4/   9.9
FCHC2    3.1/   3.3/   3.6/   3.9/   4.7/   6.5/   9.6

:St. Charles River
SCVC2    2.9/   3.5/   3.9/   5.2/   7.2/  13.4/  24.2

:Purgatoire River
PGMC2    3.7/   3.8/   3.9/   4.0/   4.2/   4.5/   4.6
PGRC2    5.2/   5.2/   5.9/   6.6/   7.4/   7.8/   8.7
PTRC2    2.3/   2.5/   2.9/   3.2/   3.7/   4.6/   6.4
LAPC2    3.7/   4.2/   5.7/   7.3/   8.2/   9.3/  10.6

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued monthly
:throughout the year.

.END

$$






000
FGUS64 KTUA 241504
ESGTOP

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK
1003 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
             Valid  4/24/2014 - 7/24/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR MOD MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
-------- ----- ----- -----: ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

:Cottonwood River
EMPK1            20.0   24.0   32.0    30   46   16   29   <5   <5

:Neosho River
AMCK1            26.0   27.0   40.0    10   18    6   13   <5   <5
EPRK1            19.0   19.5   30.5    19   34   18   31   <5   <5
NEOK1            22.0   23.0   44.0    33   54   31   52   <5   <5
BRLK1            27.0   40.0   45.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LRYK1            23.0   23.0   38.0    19   31   19   31   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B TUA 0424 Z DH12 /DC201404241503/DRD+6/DVD91/HGVFZXT
.B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:    Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
:            Valid  4/24/2014 - 7/24/2014
:
:        95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
:        ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
:Cottonwood River
EMPK1    2.7/   3.9/   5.2/  11.7/  22.1/  25.7/  26.5

:Neosho River
AMCK1    4.6/   5.4/   7.2/  11.4/  18.6/  26.2/  27.5
EPRK1   10.0/  10.4/  12.0/  13.3/  16.2/  23.6/  24.5
NEOK1    2.2/   3.7/   7.3/  15.3/  25.6/  27.5/  28.4
BRLK1    9.7/  10.0/  12.4/  17.2/  19.0/  21.5/  22.5
LRYK1    6.7/   7.1/  13.2/  16.9/  20.8/  27.3/  28.8

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued monthly
:throughout the year.

.END

$$






000
FGUS64 KTUA 241504
ESGSGF

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK
1003 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
             Valid  4/24/2014 - 7/24/2014

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR MOD MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
-------- ----- ----- -----: ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

:Spring River
CHTM7            10.0   14.0   20.0    21   22   <5    5   <5   <5
WCOM7            19.0   30.0   33.0    15   29   <5   <5   <5   <5
BXTK1            14.0   22.0   30.0    15   23   <5   11   <5   <5

:Shoal Creek
JOPM7            14.0   15.0   16.0     5   11   <5    8   <5    6

:Elk River
TIFM7            15.0   20.0   25.0    21   30   10   15   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B TUA 0424 Z DH12 /DC201404241503/DRD+6/DVD91/HGVFZXT
.B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:    Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
:            Valid  4/24/2014 - 7/24/2014
:
:        95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
:        ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
:Spring River
CHTM7    3.1/   3.1/   3.8/   5.1/   9.4/  12.4/  13.1
WCOM7    1.9/   3.5/   6.1/   8.7/  15.9/  20.8/  26.7
BXTK1    3.4/   4.1/   5.1/   6.5/   9.1/  16.8/  21.2

:Shoal Creek
JOPM7    2.2/   2.2/   2.8/   4.2/   6.6/  12.0/  14.2

:Elk River
TIFM7    4.1/   4.6/   5.8/   7.5/  13.7/  20.0/  22.3

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued monthly
:throughout the year.

.END

$$






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