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000
FNUS51 KBUF 020845
FWFBUF

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR WESTERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
445 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING SUNSHINE TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVERHEAD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING
WESTERN NY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FOR THE WEEKEND AND EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES.

NYZ001-002-010-011-022115-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
445 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          FRI
CLOUD COVER                     PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                      0            0            0
PRECIP TYPE                      NONE         NONE         NONE
MAX/MIN TEMP                       76           57           78
AM WIND (MPH)                 LGT/VAR                      S 12
PM WIND (MPH)                   SE  6        SE  5         S 20
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.00         0.00         0.00
PRECIP DURATION
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               51           90           54
HAINES INDEX                        3            4            4
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              5490           70         3150
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SE  8        SE  8         S 31
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               43920          560        97650
DISPERSION INDEX                   44            1           98
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ012-019>021-085-022115-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
445 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          FRI
CLOUD COVER                     PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                      0            0           30
PRECIP TYPE                      NONE         NONE      SHOWERS
MAX/MIN TEMP                       73           52           74
AM WIND (MPH)                 LGT/VAR                      S 14
PM WIND (MPH)                    S  7      LGT/VAR         S 20
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.00         0.00         0.03
PRECIP DURATION                                               1
PRECIP BEGIN                                               2 PM
PRECIP END                                           CONTINUING
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               52           99           56
HAINES INDEX                        3            4            3
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              6700           70         3450
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)              S 10        SE  7         S 32
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               67000          490       110400
DISPERSION INDEX                   67            0          110
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-022115-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
445 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          FRI
CLOUD COVER                     PCLDY       MCLEAR        PCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                      0            0            0
PRECIP TYPE                      NONE         NONE         NONE
MAX/MIN TEMP                       75           54           75
AM WIND (MPH)                 LGT/VAR                      S 13
PM WIND (MPH)                   SE  7        SE  5         S 22
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.00         0.00         0.00
PRECIP DURATION
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               51           96           53
HAINES INDEX                        3            4            3
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              6960           70         4240
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SE 10        SE  9         S 32
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               69600          630       135680
DISPERSION INDEX                   70            1          136
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ006>008-022115-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
445 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          FRI
CLOUD COVER                     PCLDY       MCLEAR       MCLEAR
PRECIP CHC (%)                      0            0            0
PRECIP TYPE                      NONE         NONE         NONE
MAX/MIN TEMP                       72           51           75
AM WIND (MPH)                 LGT/VAR                     SE  9
PM WIND (MPH)                 LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR         S 15
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.00         0.00         0.00
PRECIP DURATION
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               54          100           52
HAINES INDEX                        3            3            3
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              5600           70         5060
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SE  4        SE  3         S 24
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               22400          210       121440
DISPERSION INDEX                   22            0          121
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.

WIND FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH.
WIND SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH.
WIND SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
WIND MONDAY...SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.

$$









000
FNUS51 KBUF 010907
FWFBUF

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR WESTERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
507 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH A SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND
MILD WEATHER FOR THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A GREATER
LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

NYZ001-002-010-011-012115-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
507 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          THU
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                      0            0            0
PRECIP TYPE                      NONE         NONE         NONE
MAX/MIN TEMP                       72           52           77
AM WIND (MPH)                   NE  7                   LGT/VAR
PM WIND (MPH)                   NE  9         E  6        SE  7
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.00         0.00         0.00
PRECIP DURATION
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               63          100           51
HAINES INDEX                        2            3            3
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              3250          160         6670
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)              E  7        SE  4        SE  6
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               22750          640        40020
DISPERSION INDEX                   23            1           40
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ012-019>021-085-012115-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
507 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          THU
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                      0            0            0
PRECIP TYPE                      NONE         NONE         NONE
MAX/MIN TEMP                       70           51           74
AM WIND (MPH)                 LGT/VAR                      S  5
PM WIND (MPH)                 LGT/VAR         E  6         S  7
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.00         0.00         0.00
PRECIP DURATION
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               61          100           51
HAINES INDEX                        3            3            3
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              5870            0         6680
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SE  7         E  6         S  7
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               41090            0        46760
DISPERSION INDEX                   41            0           47
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-012115-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
507 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          THU
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                      0            0            0
PRECIP TYPE                      NONE         NONE         NONE
MAX/MIN TEMP                       72           52           76
AM WIND (MPH)                 LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
PM WIND (MPH)                   NE  6        NE  5        SE  8
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.00         0.00         0.00
PRECIP DURATION
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               61           98           50
HAINES INDEX                        2            3            3
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              5470            0         6640
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)              E  5        NE  6        SE  7
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               27350            0        46480
DISPERSION INDEX                   27            0           46
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ006>008-012115-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
507 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          THU
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                      0            0            0
PRECIP TYPE                      NONE         NONE         NONE
MAX/MIN TEMP                       71           49           73
AM WIND (MPH)                 LGT/VAR                     SE  5
PM WIND (MPH)                   NE  5      LGT/VAR        SE  5
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.00         0.00         0.00
PRECIP DURATION
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               62           99           52
HAINES INDEX                        3            3            3
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              6260           10         5570
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)              E  6        NE  6        SE  4
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               37560           60        22280
DISPERSION INDEX                   38            0           22
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. COOLER. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS AROUND 60.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.

WIND THURSDAY NIGHT...EAST AROUND 5 MPH.
WIND FRIDAY...SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH.
WIND SATURDAY...SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
WIND SUNDAY...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.

$$









000
FNUS51 KBUF 300815
FWFBUF

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR WESTERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
415 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INTERRUPT THE FINE STRETCH OF AUTUMN
WEATHER WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING RECENTLY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE FAIR WEATHER AND AGAIN BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT WARMTH LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

NYZ001-002-010-011-302115-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
415 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          WED
CLOUD COVER                     PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     30           30            0
PRECIP TYPE                   SHOWERS      SHOWERS         NONE
MAX/MIN TEMP                       72           53           71
AM WIND (MPH)                 LGT/VAR                     NE  6
PM WIND (MPH)                   NE  5        NE  5        NE  8
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.02         0.02         0.00
PRECIP DURATION                     1            2
PRECIP BEGIN                     2 PM   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                 CONTINUING         6 AM
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               59          100           64
HAINES INDEX                        3            3            3
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              4260          320         4110
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)              N  1         E 10         E  9
VENT RATE (KT-FT)                4260         3200        36990
DISPERSION INDEX                    4            3           37
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ012-019>021-085-302115-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
415 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          WED
CLOUD COVER                     PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     60           60            0
PRECIP TYPE                     TSTMS        TSTMS         NONE
MAX/MIN TEMP                       71           51           71
AM WIND (MPH)                 LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
PM WIND (MPH)                 LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.04         0.11         0.00
PRECIP DURATION                     2            3
PRECIP BEGIN                     1 PM   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                 CONTINUING         6 AM
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               53          100           62
HAINES INDEX                        3            2            3
LAL                                 4            4            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              4960          540         4940
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SW  3        SE  9        SE  8
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               14880         4860        39520
DISPERSION INDEX                   15            5           40
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-302115-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
415 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          WED
CLOUD COVER                     PCLDY        MCLDY        PCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     30           40            0
PRECIP TYPE                   SHOWERS      SHOWERS         NONE
MAX/MIN TEMP                       73           55           72
AM WIND (MPH)                 LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
PM WIND (MPH)                 LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR         E  5
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.01         0.03         0.00
PRECIP DURATION                     0            2
PRECIP BEGIN                     5 PM   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                 CONTINUING         6 AM
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               56          100           62
HAINES INDEX                        3            3            3
LAL                                 1            3            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              6170           40         4730
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)              S  5         E  5         E  8
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               30850          200        37840
DISPERSION INDEX                   31            0           38
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ006>008-302115-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
415 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          WED
CLOUD COVER                     PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                      0            0            0
PRECIP TYPE                      NONE         NONE         NONE
MAX/MIN TEMP                       72           51           72
AM WIND (MPH)                 LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
PM WIND (MPH)                 LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.00         0.00         0.00
PRECIP DURATION
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
MIN/MAX HUMIDITY (%)               61          100           62
HAINES INDEX                        3            3            3
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              7430            0         5500
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SE  6         E  8         E  6
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               44580            0        33000
DISPERSION INDEX                   45            0           33
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. COOLER. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.

WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH.
WIND THURSDAY...EAST AROUND 10 MPH.
WIND FRIDAY...SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH.
WIND SATURDAY...WEST AROUND 15 MPH.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.

$$









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