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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 211333
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR TA 03B...US ARMY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
933 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...AND PUSHES OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...THEN WEST TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS (55-65
                    PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER 4 PM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....LIGHT SW WINDS...BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND
                    5 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT AFTER 4 PM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5000-5500 FT AGL BY
                    EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............23  30  40  55  60  70  81  81  81
WEATHER COV.........                    SCH SCH SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE........                    RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................57  63  65  68  70  70  68  67  67
RH..................71  56  50  45  43  42  42  44  47
CHC OF PCPN (%)..... 0   0   0   0  10  20  20  30  40
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.2 2.1 3.1 4.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.7 3.4
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......2   3   3   3   3   3   3   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....6   8   10  12  10  9   8   7   7
VRATE KT-FT/1000....8   15  25  32  41  46  47  47  40
LVORI...............3   3   1   1   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.................3   17  30  32  24  22  19  16  14
HAINES INDEX........3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 7 TO 14 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............85  85  85  86  86  86  87  87  87  92  92  92
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................64  61  58  56  55  54  53  51  51  50  50  49
RH..................54  65  72  77  77  80  83  86  86  89  89  93
CHC OF PCPN (%).....40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40
MIX HGT (KFT).......2.1 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
20 FT WIND DIR......NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......5   3   3   3   3   3   3   5   5   5   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
TRANSP WIND SPD.....7   8   9   10  13  14  13  13  12  10  10  12
VRATE KT-FT/1000....22  10  2   2   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   3
LVORI...............2   2   3   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   6
ADI.................12  10  10  12  8   9   9   8   8   7   7   8
HAINES INDEX........4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 2300 FT AGL LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............97  97  97  96  96  96  88  88  88  81  81  81
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................49  49  50  52  55  58  60  61  61  61  61  60
RH..................93  93  86  80  72  67  60  58  58  58  58  60
CHC OF PCPN (%).....30  30  30  30  30  30  20  20  20  20  20  20
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3
20 FT WIND DIR......NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......6   7   7   8   10  10  12  14  15  15  15  15
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  15  15  15  15  20  20  25  25  25  25  25
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
TRANSP WIND SPD.....14  16  18  20  20  20  20  21  22  23  25  26
VRATE KT-FT/1000....4   6   7   15  22  29  32  36  40  44  48  52
LVORI...............6   5   4   3   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................9   14  16  17  29  35  37  40  44  47  51  55
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3



FORECASTER...MCGEE
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS MCCLELLAND
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141021.TA03B.01/AKQ








000
FNUS71 KAKQ 211333
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR TA 03B...US ARMY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
933 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...AND PUSHES OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...THEN WEST TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS (55-65
                    PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER 4 PM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....LIGHT SW WINDS...BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND
                    5 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT AFTER 4 PM.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5000-5500 FT AGL BY
                    EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............23  30  40  55  60  70  81  81  81
WEATHER COV.........                    SCH SCH SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE........                    RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................57  63  65  68  70  70  68  67  67
RH..................71  56  50  45  43  42  42  44  47
CHC OF PCPN (%)..... 0   0   0   0  10  20  20  30  40
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.2 2.1 3.1 4.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 4.7 3.4
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......2   3   3   3   3   3   3   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....6   8   10  12  10  9   8   7   7
VRATE KT-FT/1000....8   15  25  32  41  46  47  47  40
LVORI...............3   3   1   1   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.................3   17  30  32  24  22  19  16  14
HAINES INDEX........3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 7 TO 14 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............85  85  85  86  86  86  87  87  87  92  92  92
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................64  61  58  56  55  54  53  51  51  50  50  49
RH..................54  65  72  77  77  80  83  86  86  89  89  93
CHC OF PCPN (%).....40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40
MIX HGT (KFT).......2.1 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
20 FT WIND DIR......NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......5   3   3   3   3   3   3   5   5   5   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  5   5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
TRANSP WIND SPD.....7   8   9   10  13  14  13  13  12  10  10  12
VRATE KT-FT/1000....22  10  2   2   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   3
LVORI...............2   2   3   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   6
ADI.................12  10  10  12  8   9   9   8   8   7   7   8
HAINES INDEX........4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 2300 FT AGL LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............97  97  97  96  96  96  88  88  88  81  81  81
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................49  49  50  52  55  58  60  61  61  61  61  60
RH..................93  93  86  80  72  67  60  58  58  58  58  60
CHC OF PCPN (%).....30  30  30  30  30  30  20  20  20  20  20  20
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3
20 FT WIND DIR......NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD......6   7   7   8   10  10  12  14  15  15  15  15
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  15  15  15  15  20  20  25  25  25  25  25
TRANSP WIND DIR.....N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
TRANSP WIND SPD.....14  16  18  20  20  20  20  21  22  23  25  26
VRATE KT-FT/1000....4   6   7   15  22  29  32  36  40  44  48  52
LVORI...............6   5   4   3   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................9   14  16  17  29  35  37  40  44  47  51  55
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3



FORECASTER...MCGEE
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS MCCLELLAND
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141021.TA03B.01/AKQ







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