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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 051044
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR WILNA 12 13...USFWS-FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
644 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY..BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE REGION. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE FRONT DROPS INTO VIRGINIA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON
THURSDAY.




.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-20 PERCENT)...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (40-50%)
                    WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5 TO 9
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............0   0   0   13  13  13  28  28  28  46  46  46
WEATHER COV.........                                            SCH
WEATHER TYPE........                                            RW
TSTM COV............                                            SCH
TEMP................62  64  67  71  74  77  80  81  83  84  85  82
RH..................72  73  68  59  55  50  45  42  40  40  39  44
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD......7   7   7   8   8   8   7   7   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  10  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.5 0.5 0.7 1.7 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....15  15  14  13  10  10  9   8   7   7   7   9
LVORI...............4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1
ADI.................11  11  11  21  26  26  22  18  17  20  27  37
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20
HAINES INDEX........5   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRATE KT-FT/1000....6   6   7   14  25  30  30  30  27  25  28  40

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    EARLY MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3800 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 400-1200 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH...DECREASING TO 3 TO 8
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............64  64  64  69  69  69  68  68  68  62  62  62
WEATHER COV.........SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............SCH SCH SCH ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
TEMP................79  76  74  72  70  69  68  67  66  65  64  63
RH..................49  56  62  66  71  73  76  78  84  84  84  84
20 FT WIND DIR......SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   SW  S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.8 2.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   SW  S   S   S   SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....12  15  17  16  14  10  8   6   3   5   6   8
LVORI...............2   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   5   5   5   5
ADI.................8   10  11  11  9   7   5   4   3   3   4   5
CHC OF PCPN (%).....20  20  30  30  30  30  30  30  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX........5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRATE KT-FT/1000....40  33  18  15  11  7   4   2   1   2   2   2

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE
                    IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2700-3400 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 1 TO 9 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............54  54  54  55  55  55  59  59  59  66  66  66
WEATHER COV.........                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP................63  63  66  69  72  75  77  79  80  80  80  80
RH..................87  87  78  73  66  62  58  54  52  52  52  52
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....9   9   9   7   5   2   1   1   1   1   2   5
LVORI...............5   5   4   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.................10  7   7   9   11  7   4   3   4   6   7   11
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10  30  30  30  30  40  40
HAINES INDEX........3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/1000....3   3   2   7   7   5   3   2   3   5   8   12



FORECASTER...BROWN
REQUESTED BY...KYLE KRZYWICKI
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150505.WILNA.01/AKQ




000
FNUS71 KAKQ 051044
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR WILNA 12 13...USFWS-FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
644 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY..BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE REGION. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE FRONT DROPS INTO VIRGINIA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON
THURSDAY.




.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-20 PERCENT)...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (40-50%)
                    WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5 TO 9
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............0   0   0   13  13  13  28  28  28  46  46  46
WEATHER COV.........                                            SCH
WEATHER TYPE........                                            RW
TSTM COV............                                            SCH
TEMP................62  64  67  71  74  77  80  81  83  84  85  82
RH..................72  73  68  59  55  50  45  42  40  40  39  44
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD......7   7   7   8   8   8   7   7   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  10  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.5 0.5 0.7 1.7 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....15  15  14  13  10  10  9   8   7   7   7   9
LVORI...............4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1
ADI.................11  11  11  21  26  26  22  18  17  20  27  37
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20
HAINES INDEX........5   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRATE KT-FT/1000....6   6   7   14  25  30  30  30  27  25  28  40

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    EARLY MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3800 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 400-1200 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH...DECREASING TO 3 TO 8
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............64  64  64  69  69  69  68  68  68  62  62  62
WEATHER COV.........SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............SCH SCH SCH ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
TEMP................79  76  74  72  70  69  68  67  66  65  64  63
RH..................49  56  62  66  71  73  76  78  84  84  84  84
20 FT WIND DIR......SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   SW  S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.8 2.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   SW  S   S   S   SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....12  15  17  16  14  10  8   6   3   5   6   8
LVORI...............2   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   5   5   5   5
ADI.................8   10  11  11  9   7   5   4   3   3   4   5
CHC OF PCPN (%).....20  20  30  30  30  30  30  30  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX........5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRATE KT-FT/1000....40  33  18  15  11  7   4   2   1   2   2   2

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE
                    IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2700-3400 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 1 TO 9 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............54  54  54  55  55  55  59  59  59  66  66  66
WEATHER COV.........                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP................63  63  66  69  72  75  77  79  80  80  80  80
RH..................87  87  78  73  66  62  58  54  52  52  52  52
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....9   9   9   7   5   2   1   1   1   1   2   5
LVORI...............5   5   4   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.................10  7   7   9   11  7   4   3   4   6   7   11
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10  30  30  30  30  40  40
HAINES INDEX........3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/1000....3   3   2   7   7   5   3   2   3   5   8   12



FORECASTER...BROWN
REQUESTED BY...KYLE KRZYWICKI
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150505.WILNA.01/AKQ





000
FNUS71 KAKQ 051044
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR WILNA 12 13...USFWS-FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
644 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY..BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE REGION. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE FRONT DROPS INTO VIRGINIA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON
THURSDAY.




.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-20 PERCENT)...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (40-50%)
                    WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5 TO 9
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............0   0   0   13  13  13  28  28  28  46  46  46
WEATHER COV.........                                            SCH
WEATHER TYPE........                                            RW
TSTM COV............                                            SCH
TEMP................62  64  67  71  74  77  80  81  83  84  85  82
RH..................72  73  68  59  55  50  45  42  40  40  39  44
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD......7   7   7   8   8   8   7   7   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  10  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.5 0.5 0.7 1.7 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....15  15  14  13  10  10  9   8   7   7   7   9
LVORI...............4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1
ADI.................11  11  11  21  26  26  22  18  17  20  27  37
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20
HAINES INDEX........5   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRATE KT-FT/1000....6   6   7   14  25  30  30  30  27  25  28  40

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    EARLY MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3800 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 400-1200 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH...DECREASING TO 3 TO 8
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............64  64  64  69  69  69  68  68  68  62  62  62
WEATHER COV.........SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............SCH SCH SCH ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
TEMP................79  76  74  72  70  69  68  67  66  65  64  63
RH..................49  56  62  66  71  73  76  78  84  84  84  84
20 FT WIND DIR......SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   SW  S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.8 2.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   SW  S   S   S   SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....12  15  17  16  14  10  8   6   3   5   6   8
LVORI...............2   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   5   5   5   5
ADI.................8   10  11  11  9   7   5   4   3   3   4   5
CHC OF PCPN (%).....20  20  30  30  30  30  30  30  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX........5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRATE KT-FT/1000....40  33  18  15  11  7   4   2   1   2   2   2

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE
                    IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2700-3400 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 1 TO 9 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............54  54  54  55  55  55  59  59  59  66  66  66
WEATHER COV.........                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP................63  63  66  69  72  75  77  79  80  80  80  80
RH..................87  87  78  73  66  62  58  54  52  52  52  52
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....9   9   9   7   5   2   1   1   1   1   2   5
LVORI...............5   5   4   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.................10  7   7   9   11  7   4   3   4   6   7   11
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10  30  30  30  30  40  40
HAINES INDEX........3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/1000....3   3   2   7   7   5   3   2   3   5   8   12



FORECASTER...BROWN
REQUESTED BY...KYLE KRZYWICKI
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150505.WILNA.01/AKQ




000
FNUS71 KAKQ 051044
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR WILNA 12 13...USFWS-FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
644 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY..BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE REGION. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE FRONT DROPS INTO VIRGINIA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON
THURSDAY.




.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-20 PERCENT)...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (40-50%)
                    WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5 TO 9
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............0   0   0   13  13  13  28  28  28  46  46  46
WEATHER COV.........                                            SCH
WEATHER TYPE........                                            RW
TSTM COV............                                            SCH
TEMP................62  64  67  71  74  77  80  81  83  84  85  82
RH..................72  73  68  59  55  50  45  42  40  40  39  44
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD......7   7   7   8   8   8   7   7   6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  10  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.5 0.5 0.7 1.7 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.5 4.8 5.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....15  15  14  13  10  10  9   8   7   7   7   9
LVORI...............4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1
ADI.................11  11  11  21  26  26  22  18  17  20  27  37
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20
HAINES INDEX........5   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRATE KT-FT/1000....6   6   7   14  25  30  30  30  27  25  28  40

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    EARLY MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3800 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 400-1200 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH...DECREASING TO 3 TO 8
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............64  64  64  69  69  69  68  68  68  62  62  62
WEATHER COV.........SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............SCH SCH SCH ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
TEMP................79  76  74  72  70  69  68  67  66  65  64  63
RH..................49  56  62  66  71  73  76  78  84  84  84  84
20 FT WIND DIR......SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   SW  S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.8 2.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   SW  S   S   S   SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....12  15  17  16  14  10  8   6   3   5   6   8
LVORI...............2   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   5   5   5   5
ADI.................8   10  11  11  9   7   5   4   3   3   4   5
CHC OF PCPN (%).....20  20  30  30  30  30  30  30  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX........5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRATE KT-FT/1000....40  33  18  15  11  7   4   2   1   2   2   2

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE
                    IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2700-3400 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 1 TO 9 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............54  54  54  55  55  55  59  59  59  66  66  66
WEATHER COV.........                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP................63  63  66  69  72  75  77  79  80  80  80  80
RH..................87  87  78  73  66  62  58  54  52  52  52  52
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.9 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....9   9   9   7   5   2   1   1   1   1   2   5
LVORI...............5   5   4   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.................10  7   7   9   11  7   4   3   4   6   7   11
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10  30  30  30  30  40  40
HAINES INDEX........3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/1000....3   3   2   7   7   5   3   2   3   5   8   12



FORECASTER...BROWN
REQUESTED BY...KYLE KRZYWICKI
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150505.WILNA.01/AKQ





000
FNUS71 KAKQ 051038
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR TWIN LAKES...DEPT. CONSERVATION & RECREATION, DIV. STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
638 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY...BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE REGION. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE FRONT DROPS INTO VIRGINIA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON
THURSDAY.




.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5100-5600 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............0   0   0   8   8   8   17  17  17  30  30  30
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................60  62  65  69  73  76  79  81  84  84  85  84
RH..................84  78  73  63  57  52  45  39  34  34  32  33
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......7   7   8   7   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....15      10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1 2.2 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....13  13  12  12  10  10  10  9   8   8   8   10
LVORI...............4   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1
ADI.................10  9   9   16  25  29  26  23  22  26  34  45
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRATE KT-FT/1000....3   3   4   11  22  29  33  36  35  31  37  50

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MAX HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-4100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-1000 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 17 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............44  44  44  48  48  48  47  47  47  43  43  43
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................83  80  76  74  71  69  67  66  64  63  63  62
RH..................36  41  48  53  59  66  70  70  75  78  75  78
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......6   5   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......4.1 2.5 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....13  16  17  17  16  15  13  12  10  9   9   9
LVORI...............2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   4   4
ADI.................6   10  12  12  11  10  9   8   7   7   6   6
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX........5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/1000....46  34  15  11  7   3   3   3   2   2   2   2

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE
                    IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3100-3900 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 2 TO 5
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 1
                    TO 3 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............37  37  37  39  39  39  45  45  45  54  54  54
WEATHER COV.........                                    CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........                                    RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                                    CHC CHC CHC
TEMP................62  62  65  69  73  78  80  82  84  83  83  83
RH..................81  84  75  68  59  52  49  44  41  43  43  43
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.2 2.1 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  W   NW  N   NE  SE  S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....9   9   8   6   5   2   2   1   2   2   2   3
LVORI...............4   4   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.................7   9   8   10  11  9   7   6   5   5   7   9
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  30  30
HAINES INDEX........4   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/1000....2   2   2   7   8   7   5   5   6   7   8   11



FORECASTER...BROWN
REQUESTED BY...IRENE FRENTZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150505.TWINL.01/AKQ




000
FNUS71 KAKQ 051038
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR TWIN LAKES...DEPT. CONSERVATION & RECREATION, DIV. STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
638 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY...BRINGING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE REGION. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE FRONT DROPS INTO VIRGINIA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON
THURSDAY.




.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.
MIN HUMIDITY........32 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5100-5600 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............0   0   0   8   8   8   17  17  17  30  30  30
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................60  62  65  69  73  76  79  81  84  84  85  84
RH..................84  78  73  63  57  52  45  39  34  34  32  33
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......7   7   8   7   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....15      10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1 2.2 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....13  13  12  12  10  10  10  9   8   8   8   10
LVORI...............4   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1
ADI.................10  9   9   16  25  29  26  23  22  26  34  45
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRATE KT-FT/1000....3   3   4   11  22  29  33  36  35  31  37  50

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MAX HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-4100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-1000 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 17 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............44  44  44  48  48  48  47  47  47  43  43  43
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................83  80  76  74  71  69  67  66  64  63  63  62
RH..................36  41  48  53  59  66  70  70  75  78  75  78
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......6   5   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......4.1 2.5 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....13  16  17  17  16  15  13  12  10  9   9   9
LVORI...............2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   4   4   4   4
ADI.................6   10  12  12  11  10  9   8   7   7   6   6
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX........5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/1000....46  34  15  11  7   3   3   3   2   2   2   2

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE
                    IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3100-3900 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 2 TO 5
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 1
                    TO 3 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............37  37  37  39  39  39  45  45  45  54  54  54
WEATHER COV.........                                    CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........                                    RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                                    CHC CHC CHC
TEMP................62  62  65  69  73  78  80  82  84  83  83  83
RH..................81  84  75  68  59  52  49  44  41  43  43  43
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.2 2.1 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  W   NW  N   NE  SE  S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....9   9   8   6   5   2   2   1   2   2   2   3
LVORI...............4   4   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.................7   9   8   10  11  9   7   6   5   5   7   9
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  30  30
HAINES INDEX........4   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/1000....2   2   2   7   8   7   5   5   6   7   8   11



FORECASTER...BROWN
REQUESTED BY...IRENE FRENTZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150505.TWINL.01/AKQ





000
FNUS71 KAKQ 050145
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR MARSHYHOPE...MARYLAND FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
945 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS INTO VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN OFF OR NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.



.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    LATE.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4900-5400 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 17 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............13  13  13  18  18  18  28  28  28  44  44  44
WEATHER COV.........                                    CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........                                    RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                                    CHC CHC CHC
TEMP................62  64  66  69  72  76  78  80  81  82  84  82
RH..................75  73  70  63  57  48  45  42  41  41  38  43
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......7   8   8   9   9   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.4 0.4 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.3 4.9 5.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....10  12  13  12  10  10  12  13  15  16  17  17
LVORI...............4   4   4   3   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................8   9   10  16  25  23  27  33  40  47  53  55
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  40
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/1000....3   4   4   11  17  23  29  39  49  62  75  82



FORECASTER...SCALORA
REQUESTED BY...GILBERT WAGNER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150505.MARSH.01/AKQ





000
FNUS71 KAKQ 050145
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR MARSHYHOPE...MARYLAND FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
945 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN DROPS INTO VIRGINIA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING. LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN OFF OR NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.



.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    LATE.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4900-5400 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 17 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............13  13  13  18  18  18  28  28  28  44  44  44
WEATHER COV.........                                    CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........                                    RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                                    CHC CHC CHC
TEMP................62  64  66  69  72  76  78  80  81  82  84  82
RH..................75  73  70  63  57  48  45  42  41  41  38  43
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......7   8   8   9   9   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.4 0.4 0.4 1.1 1.8 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.3 4.9 5.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....10  12  13  12  10  10  12  13  15  16  17  17
LVORI...............4   4   4   3   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................8   9   10  16  25  23  27  33  40  47  53  55
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  40
HAINES INDEX........4   4   4   4   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/1000....3   4   4   11  17  23  29  39  49  62  75  82



FORECASTER...SCALORA
REQUESTED BY...GILBERT WAGNER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150505.MARSH.01/AKQ




000
FNUS71 KAKQ 041341
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR BELLE ISLE...DCR STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
941 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD POSE
MINIMAL FIRE RISK PRIMARILY DUE TO GREEN UP. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT...DRAGGING A FLAT SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE DISTRICTS NORTH OF RICHMOND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    LATE.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............9   14  14  14  20  20  20
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................71  74  76  77  77  79  78
RH..................49  43  39  36  36  34  35
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......5   6   8   9   9   10  10
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  15  15  15  15  20
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.8 2.1 3.3 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....10  10  10  10  12  13  13
LVORI...............2   2   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................9   27  35  41  46  38  41
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX........6   6   5   5   5   5   5
VRATE KT-FT/1000....8   19  30  41  48  55  61

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MAX HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-4100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 700-1400 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............25  25  25  30  30  30  37  37  37  31  31  31
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................76  75  72  70  68  68  67  66  66  65  65  64
RH..................40  45  53  57  61  61  63  65  65  68  70  73
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......8   7   6   6   5   5   6   7   8   8   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......4.1 2.8 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....13  12  10  8   8   8   10  13  15  15  15  14
LVORI...............2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.................8   7   4   4   3   3   4   9   10  10  10  9
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX........5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
VRATE KT-FT/1000....44  27  13  9   6   5   7   11  15  14  12  10

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............19  19  19  18  18  18  23  23  23  36  36  36
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................63  64  66  69  73  76  78  80  81  81  83  82
RH..................75  75  70  63  55  50  47  44  42  42  40  41
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
20 FT WIND SPD......8   8   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   8   8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.7 3.5 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....14  15  15  13  10  9   8   8   9   10  12  13
LVORI...............4   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1
ADI.................12  12  12  19  21  21  25  29  35  39  46  54
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10
HAINES INDEX........3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/1000....10  10  10  13  14  15  19  25  33  40  49  60



FORECASTER...MONTEFUSCO/GINGRICH
REQUESTED BY...ERIK MOLLEEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.BELLE.01/AKQ





000
FNUS71 KAKQ 041341
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR BELLE ISLE...DCR STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
941 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD POSE
MINIMAL FIRE RISK PRIMARILY DUE TO GREEN UP. LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT...DRAGGING A FLAT SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE DISTRICTS NORTH OF RICHMOND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    LATE.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............9   14  14  14  20  20  20
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................71  74  76  77  77  79  78
RH..................49  43  39  36  36  34  35
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......5   6   8   9   9   10  10
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  15  15  15  15  20
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.8 2.1 3.3 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....10  10  10  10  12  13  13
LVORI...............2   2   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................9   27  35  41  46  38  41
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX........6   6   5   5   5   5   5
VRATE KT-FT/1000....8   19  30  41  48  55  61

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MAX HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-4100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 700-1400 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............25  25  25  30  30  30  37  37  37  31  31  31
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................76  75  72  70  68  68  67  66  66  65  65  64
RH..................40  45  53  57  61  61  63  65  65  68  70  73
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......8   7   6   6   5   5   6   7   8   8   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......4.1 2.8 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....13  12  10  8   8   8   10  13  15  15  15  14
LVORI...............2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.................8   7   4   4   3   3   4   9   10  10  10  9
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX........5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
VRATE KT-FT/1000....44  27  13  9   6   5   7   11  15  14  12  10

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............19  19  19  18  18  18  23  23  23  36  36  36
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................63  64  66  69  73  76  78  80  81  81  83  82
RH..................75  75  70  63  55  50  47  44  42  42  40  41
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
20 FT WIND SPD......8   8   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   8   8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.7 3.5 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....14  15  15  13  10  9   8   8   9   10  12  13
LVORI...............4   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1
ADI.................12  12  12  19  21  21  25  29  35  39  46  54
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10
HAINES INDEX........3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/1000....10  10  10  13  14  15  19  25  33  40  49  60



FORECASTER...MONTEFUSCO/GINGRICH
REQUESTED BY...ERIK MOLLEEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.BELLE.01/AKQ




000
FNUS71 KAKQ 041109
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR BELLE ISLE...DCR STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
709 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO TONIGHT WILL DRAG A FLAT SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE. CONDITIONS AT THE BURN SITE SHOULD REMAIN DRY...
HOWEVER LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF THE BURN SITE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........70 AT IGNITION...MAX 80.
RH..................58-62 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 38-42 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING
                    SOUTH 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1000-2100 FT
                    AGL IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 3000-3500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............1   1   1   6   6   6   14  14  14  20  20  20
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................59  59  61  65  68  71  74  76  77  77  79  78
RH..................67  69  65  63  60  55  49  46  45  43  41  43
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   3   3   4   5   7   8   9   9   10  10
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  20
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....6   6   7   8   9   10  10  10  10  12  13  13
LVORI...............3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   1   1   1
ADI.................6   5   5   6   6   7   13  21  27  31  37  42
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX........6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5
VRATE KT-FT/1000....1   1   2   2   3   4   9   14  20  24  29  35

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 60-62.
RH..................MAX 75-79 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3500 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 700-1400 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............25  25  25  30  30  30  37  37  37  31  31  31
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................76  75  72  70  68  68  67  66  66  65  65  64
RH..................45  48  55  59  63  65  65  68  70  70  75  78
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......8   7   6   6   5   5   6   7   8   8   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.5 2.8 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....13  12  10  8   8   8   10  13  15  15  15  14
LVORI...............2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
ADI.................9   10  7   10  9   9   9   10  9   9   8   7
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX........5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
VRATE KT-FT/1000....30  23  15  12  8   5   6   7   8   7   5   4

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 80-83.
RH..................MIN 40-45 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2000 FT AGL IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
                    3500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............19  19  19  18  18  18  23  23  23  36  36  36
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................63  64  66  69  73  76  78  80  81  81  83  82
RH..................75  75  70  63  55  50  47  44  42  42  40  41
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
20 FT WIND SPD......8   8   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   8   8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....14  15  15  13  10  9   8   8   9   10  12  13
LVORI...............4   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1
ADI.................12  14  16  18  21  23  23  22  22  24  30  36
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10
HAINES INDEX........3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/1000....5   6   7   11  15  18  20  21  23  26  33  42



FORECASTER...DEROSA
REQUESTED BY...ERIK MOLLEEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.BELLE.01/AKQ




000
FNUS71 KAKQ 041109
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR BELLE ISLE...DCR STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
709 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO TONIGHT WILL DRAG A FLAT SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE
MASON-DIXON LINE. CONDITIONS AT THE BURN SITE SHOULD REMAIN DRY...
HOWEVER LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF THE BURN SITE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........70 AT IGNITION...MAX 80.
RH..................58-62 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 38-42 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING
                    SOUTH 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1000-2100 FT
                    AGL IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO 3000-3500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............1   1   1   6   6   6   14  14  14  20  20  20
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................59  59  61  65  68  71  74  76  77  77  79  78
RH..................67  69  65  63  60  55  49  46  45  43  41  43
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   3   3   4   5   7   8   9   9   10  10
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  20
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....6   6   7   8   9   10  10  10  10  12  13  13
LVORI...............3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   1   1   1
ADI.................6   5   5   6   6   7   13  21  27  31  37  42
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX........6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5
VRATE KT-FT/1000....1   1   2   2   3   4   9   14  20  24  29  35

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 60-62.
RH..................MAX 75-79 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3500 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 700-1400 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............25  25  25  30  30  30  37  37  37  31  31  31
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................76  75  72  70  68  68  67  66  66  65  65  64
RH..................45  48  55  59  63  65  65  68  70  70  75  78
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......8   7   6   6   5   5   6   7   8   8   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.5 2.8 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....13  12  10  8   8   8   10  13  15  15  15  14
LVORI...............2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
ADI.................9   10  7   10  9   9   9   10  9   9   8   7
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX........5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
VRATE KT-FT/1000....30  23  15  12  8   5   6   7   8   7   5   4

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 80-83.
RH..................MIN 40-45 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2000 FT AGL IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
                    3500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............19  19  19  18  18  18  23  23  23  36  36  36
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................63  64  66  69  73  76  78  80  81  81  83  82
RH..................75  75  70  63  55  50  47  44  42  42  40  41
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
20 FT WIND SPD......8   8   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   8   8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....14  15  15  13  10  9   8   8   9   10  12  13
LVORI...............4   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1
ADI.................12  14  16  18  21  23  23  22  22  24  30  36
CHC OF PCPN (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10
HAINES INDEX........3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/1000....5   6   7   11  15  18  20  21  23  26  33  42



FORECASTER...DEROSA
REQUESTED BY...ERIK MOLLEEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.BELLE.01/AKQ





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