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000
FNUS73 KAPX 231326
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR EXTENSTION...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
926 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON APRIL 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVERHEAD TODAY...BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS. INCREASED MIXING SHOULD
FORCE A RATHER RAPID RH REDUCTION TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME LAKE
MICHIGAN MODIFICATION WILL KEEP VALUES A TOUCH MORE ELEVATED THAN
FURTHER INLAND. STILL...WOULD EXPECT RH VALUES TO FALL TO THE
UPPER 20S THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DECENT RH RECOVERY EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN SPEED AND BACK NORTHWESTERLY
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GO CALM
QUICKLY THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN SETS. ANY RAIN WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL THURSDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........47 AT IGNITION...MAX 52.
RH..................35 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 7 TO 13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3800-4700 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (400) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (400).

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........1   1   8   22  29
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............47  49  50  51  51
RH..............35  33  30  29  29
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   N   NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD..5   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......400 300 300 300 300

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 33.
RH..................MAX 66 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-300 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........MIN 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN FAIR(200).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........28  27  27  29  34  36  39  45  48  50  54  56
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............50  49  47  44  41  38  37  36  36  35  34  34
RH..............31  36  40  47  52  59  61  64  64  66  66  66
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  NW  N   N   NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   SE
20 FT WIND SPD..5   4   3   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   1
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  5   5
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5
SMOKE DISP......300 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH
REQUESTED BY...JOE RASPOTNIK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140423.EXTEN.01/APX








000
FNUS73 KAPX 231301
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR TROUT POND...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
901 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON APRIL 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVERHEAD TODAY...BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS. INCREASED MIXING SHOULD
FORCE A RATHER RAPID RH REDUCTION TODAY...WITH CURRENT SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
READINGS DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS OF AROUND 20 PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON.
DECENT RH RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK DOWN TO THE
UPPER 20S. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN SPEED AND VEER
MORE NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GO CALM QUICKLY THIS EVENING ONCE THE
SUN SETS.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW RATHER SIMILAR TO TODAY...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING
UNDER THICKENING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES A TOUCH MORE ELEVATED. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY. ANY RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........47 AT IGNITION...MAX 50.
RH..................25 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 13 TO 18 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4500-5300 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (600) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (800).

TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........1   1   1   1
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............47  49  49  49
RH..............25  24  25  26
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......600 700 800 800

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 29.
RH..................MAX 78 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 0 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-300 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........MIN 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(100).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........2   4   6   6   7   7   10  16  18  19  21  22
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............48  47  45  42  39  37  35  34  33  31  30  30
RH..............27  28  32  37  46  54  59  61  63  69  72  72
20 FT WIND DIR..NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   NE  N   N   N   NE
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   5   3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
20 FT WIND GUST.15  10  10  5
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SMOKE DISP......600 300 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 51.
RH..................MIN 34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 6 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO AROUND 20 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900-4000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX POOR(100).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........26     38     54     69     81     86
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............30     32     40     46     49     50
RH..............75     78     50     38     36     34
20 FT WIND......NE 0   E 0    E 4    E 6    E 6    E 7
20 FT WIND GUST.              10     15     15     15
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      3      3
SMOKE DISP......100    100    100    100    100    100

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH
REQUESTED BY...PERSEPHONE WHELAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140423.TROUT.01/APX








000
FNUS73 KAPX 231254
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR MAPES ROAD RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
854 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON APRIL 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVERHEAD TODAY...BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS. INCREASED MIXING SHOULD
FORCE A RATHER RAPID RH REDUCTION TODAY...WITH CURRENT SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
READINGS DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS OF AROUND 20 PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON.
DECENT RH RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK DOWN TO THE
UPPER 20S. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON
...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GO
CALM QUICKLY THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN SETS.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW RATHER SIMILAR TO TODAY...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING
UNDER THICKENING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES A TOUCH MORE ELEVATED. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY. ANY RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........41 AT IGNITION...MAX 53.
RH..................31 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 20 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14 TO 16 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 800-2300 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 4700-5800 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (600) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (800).

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........1   1   1   1   1   1   1
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............41  44  47  49  51  52  52
RH..............31  27  24  23  20  20  20
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   6   6   6   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......600 600 600 600 700 800 800

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 27.
RH..................MAX 78 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........3   6   8   8   8   9   11  15  17  19  22  24
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............51  50  47  43  39  36  34  33  32  30  28  28
RH..............22  25  31  38  46  52  58  61  63  69  75  75
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   NW
20 FT WIND SPD..5   4   4   3   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  5   5

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 51.
RH..................MIN 33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 6 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO AROUND 20 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........28     40     56     73     85     88
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............28     31     40     47     49     50
RH..............75     75     48     37     34     33
20 FT WIND......N 0    SE 0   SE 4   SE 6   SE 7   E 8
20 FT WIND GUST.              10     15     15     15

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH
REQUESTED BY...J  ELLIOTT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140423.MAPES.01/APX








000
FNUS73 KAPX 231251
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR TWAYBLADE RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
851 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON APRIL 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVERHEAD TODAY...BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS. INCREASED MIXING SHOULD
FORCE A RATHER RAPID RH REDUCTION TODAY...WITH CURRENT SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
READINGS DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS OF AROUND 20 PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON.
DECENT RH RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK DOWN TO THE
UPPER 20S. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON
...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GO
CALM QUICKLY THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN SETS.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW RATHER SIMILAR TO TODAY...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING
UNDER THICKENING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES A TOUCH MORE ELEVATED. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY. ANY RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........46 AT IGNITION...MAX 51.
RH..................25 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 19 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    NORTH WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4700-5400 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (700) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (800).

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........1   1   1   1   1
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............46  47  49  50  50
RH..............25  23  20  19  20
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   6   7   7
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  15
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......700 700 700 800 800

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 28.
RH..................MAX 78 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 TO 13 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-300 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........MIN 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN GOOD(400).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........2   4   5   7   9   11  14  21  25  27  30  31
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............49  48  46  43  39  36  34  33  32  30  29  29
RH..............23  26  31  36  44  52  56  58  61  66  72  75
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   5   4   2   1   1   1   1   1   0   0
20 FT WIND GUST.15  10  10  5   5
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SMOKE DISP......700 600 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 51.
RH..................MIN 31 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 18
                    TO 21 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700-4200 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX GOOD(400).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........34     44     58     72     82     87
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............29     31     40     45     48     50
RH..............78     78     50     38     34     31
20 FT WIND......N 0    E 1    E 5    SE 6   SE 7   E 8
20 FT WIND GUST.              10     15     15     20
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      3      2
SMOKE DISP......400    400    400    400    400    400

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH
REQUESTED BY...PERSEPHONE WHELAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140423.TWAYB.01/APX








000
FNUS73 KAPX 231247
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR BRITTLE BLOCKS 3  4 AND 5...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
847 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 EDT ON APRIL 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVERHEAD TODAY...BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS. INCREASED MIXING SHOULD
FORCE A RATHER RAPID RH REDUCTION TODAY...WITH CURRENT SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
READINGS DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS OF AROUND 20 PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON.
DECENT RH RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK DOWN TO THE
UPPER 20S. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN SPEED AND VEER A TOUCH
MORE NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON. WINDS GO CALM QUICKLY THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN SETS.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW RATHER SIMILAR TO TODAY...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY LESS MIXING
UNDER THICKENING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES A TOUCH MORE ELEVATED. WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE DAY. ANY RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........48 AT IGNITION...MAX 51.
RH..................23 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 21 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14 TO 20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4700-5300 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (600) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (800).

TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........1   1   1   1
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............48  50  50  50
RH..............23  21  22  23
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  10
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......600 700 800 800

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 29.
RH..................MAX 81 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 3 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-300 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........MIN 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN GOOD(300).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........2   4   5   6   7   7   10  16  20  20  22  22
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............49  48  45  43  39  37  35  33  32  31  30  30
RH..............24  26  32  38  48  54  59  63  63  66  69  72
20 FT WIND DIR..NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   NE  N   N   N   N
20 FT WIND SPD..6   5   4   3   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  5
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
SMOKE DISP......700 500 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 51.
RH..................MIN 33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 6 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO AROUND 20 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 21
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800-3900 FT AGL IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX GOOD(300).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........26     39     55     70     82     86
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............30     31     40     47     49     50
RH..............75     81     50     37     34     33
20 FT WIND......NE 0   E 0    E 4    E 6    E 6    E 7
20 FT WIND GUST.              10     15     15     15
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      3      2
SMOKE DISP......300    300    300    300    300    300

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH
REQUESTED BY...PERSEPHONE WHELAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140423.BRITT.01/APX








000
FNUS73 KAPX 231158
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR CARPENTER CREEK...DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
758 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON APRIL 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVERHEAD TODAY...BRINGING
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS. INCREASED MIXING SHOULD
FORCE A RATHER RAPID RH REDUCTION TODAY...WITH CURRENT SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
READINGS DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS OF AROUND 25 PERCENT BY MID AFTERNOON.
DECENT RH RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK DOWN TO AROUND
FREEZING. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN SPEED AND BACK A TOUCH
MORE NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS. WINDS GO CALM QUICKLY THIS EVENING ONCE THE SUN SETS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........43 AT IGNITION...MAX 51.
RH..................35 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 4000-4400 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (500) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (500).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........1   1   1   8   21  28
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............43  45  47  49  50  50
RH..............35  33  31  28  25  24
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   N   N   N   NW
20 FT WIND SPD..6   5   5   5   6   6
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX....4   5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......500 500 500 500 500 400

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 31.
RH..................MAX 72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 9 MPH.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........26  23  22  24  28  30  32  35  36  38  41  43
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............49  48  46  43  39  36  35  34  34  33  32  32
RH..............26  30  35  39  48  54  59  61  64  66  69  69
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   SE
20 FT WIND SPD..6   5   4   3   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   1
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  5

$$
FORECASTER...MIKE BOGUTH
REQUESTED BY...JIM FISHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140423.CARPE.01/APX








000
FNUS73 KAPX 202007
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR MAPLE RIDGE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
407 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1700 EDT ON APRIL 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THAT FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE AREA...UNTIL ANOTHER LOW CROSSES LOWER MICHIGAN
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

AT THE FIRE SITE...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT SIGNIFICANT RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW INTO MID EVENING...BUT RECOVER
RAPIDLY WHEN RAIN ARRIVES. PRESENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MONDAY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). OCCASIONAL RAIN
                    SHOWERS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 45.
RH..................MAX 83 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 6
                    TO 7 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-600 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........MIN 3.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........79  93  100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
WEATHER COV.....OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............68  67  64  61  57  54  51  49  48  47  47  47
RH..............22  25  30  36  43  50  56  63  68  71  74  74
20 FT WIND DIR..S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..4   5   5   5   4   4   3   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   3   3   4   4
SMOKE DISP......500 500 500 300 200 100 0   0   0   0   0   0

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 65.
RH..................MIN 60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 24
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1300).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........100    100    98     94     92     92
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
TEMP............45     46     56     64     63     63
RH..............82     83     66     60     67     67
20 FT WIND......S 2    S 3    SW 4   SW 4   SW 5   SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      10     10     10
HAINES INDEX....4      3      3      3      3      4
SMOKE DISP......0      0      100    400    700    1300

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF ZOLTOWSKI
REQUESTED BY...J  ELLIOTT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140420.MAPLE.01/APX








000
FNUS73 KAPX 201543
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR MAPES ROAD RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1143 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0950 EDT ON APRIL 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SLOWER PRECIPITATION TIMING WILL CAUSE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AT
THE BURN SITE. A COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL
INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH BETWEEN 5 AND 10
MPH.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 68.
RH..................MIN 26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 23 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5800 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1700).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........100 98  96  97  99  100
WEATHER COV.....            SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE....            RW  RW  RW
TEMP............56  60  63  66  67  67
RH..............34  31  29  26  26  27
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..7   7   7   8   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  15  15
SMOKE DISP......400 600 900 120015001700

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN LATE
                    IN THE EVENING. RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 47.
RH..................MAX 86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 100 100 99  99  99  99  99  100
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT SCT CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
TEMP............66  64  61  58  55  52  51  50  49  48  48  48
RH..............30  35  42  49  57  63  68  71  74  77  77  80
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..7   6   5   4   3   3   3   2   2   2   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.15  10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

$$
FORECASTER...TIM LOCKER
REQUESTED BY...J  ELLIOTT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140420.MAPES.01/APX








000
FNUS73 KAPX 201542
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR LOLLI 3 HUGHES UNION...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1142 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0940 EDT ON APRIL 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SLOWER PRECIPITATION TIMING WILL CAUSE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AT
THE BURN SITE. A COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL
INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH BETWEEN 5 AND 10
MPH.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 68.
RH..................MIN 26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5200 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(1500).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........98  96  93  95  98  100
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............56  59  62  66  67  67
RH..............34  32  28  26  26  27
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..7   7   7   8   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.15  15  15  15  15  15
SMOKE DISP......300 500 700 100013001500

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN
                    THE EVENING. RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 48.
RH..................MAX 86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........100 100 100 100 100 100 99  99  99  99  99  100
WEATHER COV.....            CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....            RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
TEMP............66  64  61  58  55  52  51  51  50  49  49  49
RH..............29  34  39  47  55  63  68  71  74  77  77  77
20 FT WIND DIR..SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..7   6   5   4   3   3   3   2   2   2   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.15  10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........100    100    100    99     99     99
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN

$$
FORECASTER...TIM LOCKER
REQUESTED BY...J  ELLIOTT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140420.LOLLI.01/APX








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