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000
FNUS73 KAPX 231041
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHAMBERS...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
641 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON OCTOBER 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A VERY CHILLY START TO THE DAY AT THE BURN SITE. HIGH
PRESSURE AND A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE. THERE WAS SOME EARLIER FOG AND
STRATUS NEAR OR OVER THE BURN SITE. ANY LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS
UNLIKE YESTERDAY...SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY DESPITE THE SHALLOW MIXING
IN LIGHT WINDS. AM EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUT THERE WITH THE
SHALLOW MIXING KEEPING SFC DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT HUMIDITY WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A DRIZZLE
INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........35 AT IGNITION...MAX 54.
RH..................87 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 1 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 TO 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 200-1000 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 2600 FT AGL LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0) AT IGNITION. MAX...FAIR (200).

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........74  43  34  27  14  8   8   9   9
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............33  38  43  47  49  51  53  54  52
RH..............92  85  76  71  66  61  57  54  59
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   SW  SW  S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.        5   5   5   5   5   5   5
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SMOKE DISP......0   0   0   100 100 100 100 200 200

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 34.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........13  22  26  25  22  21  32  54  66  74  91  100
WEATHER COV.....            PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY SCH SCH SCH ARS
WEATHER TYPE....            FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG RN  RN  RN  FOG
TEMP............48  43  38  37  36  36  35  35  34  34  35  36
RH..............68  86  100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   0   0   0   0
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......200 100 100 0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

$$
FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON
REQUESTED BY...WARNER VANDERHEUEL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141023.CHAMB.01/APX








000
FNUS73 KAPX 221249
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR WAGNER PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
849 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON OCTOBER 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...RESULTING IN DECREASING CLOUDS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH FROM THE
NORTH RESULTING IN POOR SMOKE DISPERSAL. LITTLE CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN
CONTROL...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND WEAK WIND FLOW.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........44 AT IGNITION...MAX 52.
RH..................62 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 44 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 2 TO 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1100-2600
                    FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100) AT IGNITION. MAX...POOR (100).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........18  11  7   6   5   4
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............44  48  50  52  52  51
RH..............62  54  50  44  44  44
20 FT WIND DIR..N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT WIND SPD..4   4   3   3   4   4
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   5   10
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4
SMOKE DISP......100 100 100 100 100 100

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 24.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1900 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........MIN 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........3   2   1   1   1   1   1   3   3   3   4   4
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............48  43  38  34  32  30  28  28  27  26  26  25
RH..............49  60  73  85  92  100 100 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT WIND DIR..NE  E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SW  W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..3   3   2   2   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SMOKE DISP......100 100 100 100 100 0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 55.
RH..................MIN 46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1900 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........MAX 4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX POOR(100).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........5      6      9      12     14     17
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............25     25     38     46     52     54
RH..............100    100    85     68     52     46
20 FT WIND......W 2    W 2    W 2    SW 2   SW 3   SW 3
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      5      5      5
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4      4
SMOKE DISP......0      0      0      100    100    100

$$
FORECASTER...JAMES KEYSOR
REQUESTED BY...SHANE FORSHEE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141022.WAGNE.01/APX








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