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000
FNUS75 KBOU 222340
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG CREEK PRESCRIBED FIRE...CRAIG DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
514 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1735 MDT ON APRIL 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BE OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.  AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES IN
THE AFTERNOON...CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-83%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN 5000 FT AGL UNTIL
                    2000...THEN 2900 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN BELOW
                    1000 FT AGL UNTIL 2300...THEN 1100-1300 FT AGL
                    UNTIL 0200...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 30-40 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 20-30
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1200 THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MIN HUMIDITY........40%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-3300 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 5300-6300 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-25 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 30-35 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR 0800-1000...THEN GOOD 1000-1200
                    ...THEN EXCELLENT AFTER 1200.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S. WEST WINDS 12-18 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 11-13 MPH.
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 12-18 MPH.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BIG CREEK PRESCRIBED FIRE.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  10KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

04/22-17 79 28  8 58 38 SSW 23 36 3 3  SW 51  7700  SW 39259055     E
04/22-18 79 26  6 56 40 SSW 21 33 3 2  SW 54  7217  SW 39244012     E
04/22-19 79 26  6 52 46 SSW 18 30 3 2  SW 53  5041  SW 33167239     E
04/22-20 76 25  5 47 54 SSW 16 26 3 2  SW 51  2865 SSW 29 90466   G
04/22-21 73 25  5 43 62 SSW 15 24 3 1  SW 49   690 SSW 23 13693 P
04/22-22 69 27  7 40 69 SSW 14 23 3 1  SW 55   903 SSW 24 19649 P
04/22-23 66 28  8 39 71 SSW 15 23 3 1  SW 61  1116  SW 25 25605 P
04/23-00 63 30  9 38 73 SSW 15 24 3 1  SW 67  1329  SW 28 31561 P
04/23-01 67 29  8 36 78  SW 16 25 3 1  SW 68  1057  SW 28 25269 P
04/23-02 72 21  4 35 80  SW 17 28 3 1  SW 69   786  SW 28 18977 P
04/23-03 76 26  6 34 82  SW 17 28 3 1  SW 70   515  SW 29 12686 P
04/23-04 72 25  5 33 83 WSW 16 25 3 1  SW 71   712 WSW 24 13870 P
04/23-05 67 22  4 33 81 WSW 14 22 3 1  SW 73   910 WSW 21 15054 P
04/23-06 63 22  4 33 78 WSW 13 21 3 1  SW 73  1108 WSW 17 16237 P
04/23-07 63 22  4 32 79   W 14 22 3 1  SW 70  1725   W 18 28805 P
04/23-08 63 22  4 31 78   W 15 24 2 1  SW 67  2342   W 20 41373  F
04/23-09 63 22  4 30 78   W 17 28 2 1  SW 63  2959   W 21 53940  F
04/23-10 63 22  4 32 69   W 18 29 2 1  SW 61  3867   W 24 84855   G
04/23-11 63 22  4 35 59   W 18 30 2 1 WSW 60  4775   W 26115770    V
04/23-12 63 17  3 38 50   W 20 31 2 1 WSW 58  5683   W 30146685    V
04/23-13 63 17  3 39 46   W 21 32 2 1 WSW 55  5839   W 31158749     E
04/23-14 63 17  3 39 44   W 21 35 2 1 WSW 52  5995   W 32170813     E
04/23-15 68 17  3 38 44   W 22 35 2 1 WSW 48  6150   W 35182876     E
04/23-16 68 17  3 38 41   W 22 36 2 1 WSW 47  6247   W 33180685     E
04/23-17 68 17  3 36 42   W 23 36 2 1   W 46  6344   W 32178493     E
04/23-18 56  6  1 36 40   W 22 35 2 1   W 45  6442   W 31176301     E
04/23-19 56  6  1 34 42   W 21 32 2 1   W 45  5616   W 30149393    V
04/23-20 56  6  1 31 46   W 17 29 2 1   W 44  4791   W 29122486    V
04/23-21 56  4  1 29 49   W 15 24 2 1   W 44  3966 WNW 28 95578   G
04/23-22 56  4  1 28 50   W 14 22 2 1   W 44  3469 WNW 26 79726   G
04/23-23 56  4  1 27 52   W 13 20 2 1 WNW 44  2972   W 24 63874   G
04/24-00 46  1  0 28 51   W 12 18 2 1 WNW 44  2475   W 22 48022  F
04/24-01 46  1  0 28 52   W 12 17 2 1 WNW 46  2611   W 24 53904  F
04/24-02 46  1  0 28 53   W 12 17 2 1 WNW 48  2747   W 25 59786  F
04/24-03 46  1  0 28 55   W 12 18 2 1 WNW 51  2883   W 26 65668   G
04/24-04 46  1  0 25 65   W 13 20 2 1 WNW 51  2260   W 24 49785  F
04/24-05 46  1  0 22 76   W 14 22 2 1 WNW 52  1637   W 22 33902 P
04/24-06 55  1  0 22 77 WSW 15 24 2 1 WNW 52  1013   W 21 18019 P
04/24-07 55  1  0 25 69 WSW 15 24 2 1 WNW 51  1968   W 22 40698  F
04/24-08 55  1  0 31 54 WSW 16 25 3 1 WNW 51  2922   W 24 63377   G
04/24-09 55  1  0 37 42 WSW 16 25 3 1   W 49  3877   W 25 86056   G
04/24-10 55  1  0 41 36 WSW 17 26 3 1   W 49  4259   W 24 90208   G
04/24-11 55  1  0 44 32 WSW 17 29 3 1   W 49  4642   W 23 94360   G
04/24-12 77  0  0 45 31 WSW 18 30 3 1   W 48  5025   W 23 98512   G
04/24-13 77  0  0 45 31 WSW 20 30 3 1   W 48  5620   W 24118245    V
04/24-14 77  0  0 45 31 WSW 20 31 2 1   W 47  6215   W 25137978    V
04/24-15 77  0  0 45 32 WSW 20 31 2 1   W 46  6811   W 26157711     E
04/24-16 77  0  0 46 32 WSW 20 31 2 1   W 46  6741   W 28163373     E
04/24-17 77  0  0 46 34 WSW 20 31 2 1   W 45  6671   W 29169035     E
04/24-18 62  0  0 45 37 WSW 18 30 2 1   W 45  6601 WSW 30174698     E
04/24-19 62  0  0 43 40 WSW 17 28 2 1   W 45  6021   W 31163244     E
04/24-20 62  0  0 40 46 WSW 15 25 2 1   W 45  5441   W 32151790     E
04/24-21 62  0  0 38 50 WSW 14 22 2 1 WNW 45  4861   W 33140336    V
04/24-22 62  0  0 37 52 WSW 13 20 2 1   W 47  4600   W 32127957    V
04/24-23 62  0  0 37 51 WSW 10 17 2 1   W 49  4340   W 30115578    V
04/25-00 49  0  0 37 50 WSW  9 15 2 1   W 53  4079   W 29103199    V
04/25-01 49  0  0 37 50 WSW  8 14 2 1   W 52  3678   W 26 85378   G
04/25-02 49  0  0 37 50 WSW  8 13 2 1   W 51  3278   W 23 67557   G
04/25-03 49  0  0 36 52  SW  8 13 2 1   W 49  2878   W 20 49736  F
04/25-04 49  0  0 33 57  SW  8 13 2 1   W 47  2402   W 16 37148 P
04/25-05 49  0  0 32 59 SSW  8 13 2 1   W 45  1925   W 13 24560 P
04/25-06 52  0  0 33 56 SSW  8 13 2 1   W 41  1449   W  9 11972 P
04/25-07 52  0  0 37 49 SSW  8 13 2 1   W 40  2577   W 12 30307 P
04/25-08 52  0  0 42 42 SSW  8 13 3 1   W 38  3705 WSW 14 48642  F
04/25-09 52  0  0 47 35 SSW  8 13 3 1 WSW 37  4832 WSW 16 66976   G
04/25-10 52  0  0 50 32 SSW  9 15 3 1 WSW 39  6119 WSW 18106105    V
04/25-11 52  0  0 51 31  SW 12 17 2 1 WSW 41  7406  SW 22145233    V
04/25-12 60  1  0 52 29  SW 13 21 2 1 WSW 44  8693  SW 24184362     E
04/25-13 60  1  0 53 29  SW 14 22 2 1 WSW 45  8865  SW 25199858     E
04/25-14 60  1  0 54 28  SW 15 23 3 1 WSW 47  9038  SW 28215354     E
04/25-15 60  1  0 54 29  SW 15 24 3 1 WSW 48  9210  SW 29230850     E
04/25-16 60  1  0 53 31  SW 15 24 3 1 WSW 51  8995  SW 30229997     E
04/25-17 60  1  0 51 34  SW 15 24 3 1 WSW 53  8779  SW 30229145     E
04/25-18 73  5  1 49 37  SW 15 24 3 1 WSW 55  8564 SSW 31228292     E

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
10KFT WIND  - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...COOPER
REQUESTED BY...WENDY FINNEGAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140422.BIGCR.04/BOU





000
FNUS75 KBOU 222332
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG CREEK PRESCRIBED FIRE...CRAIG DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
514 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1735 MDT ON APRIL 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BE OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST.  AS THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES IN
THE AFTERNOON...CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2400. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. CHANCE OF SNOW
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-83%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN 5000 FT AGL UNTIL
                    2000...THEN 2900 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN BELOW
                    1000 FT AGL UNTIL 2300...THEN 1100-1300 FT AGL
                    UNTIL 0200...THEN BELOW 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 30-40 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 20-30
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1200 THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MIN HUMIDITY........40%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-3300 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 5300-6300 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15-25 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 30-35 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR 0800-1000...THEN GOOD 1000-1200
                    ...THEN EXCELLENT AFTER 1200.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S. WEST WINDS 12-18 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 11-13 MPH.
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS 12-18 MPH.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BIG CREEK PRESCRIBED FIRE.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  10KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

04/22-17 79 28  8 58 38 SSW 23 36 3 3  SW 51  7700  SW 39259055     E
04/22-18 79 26  6 56 40 SSW 21 33 3 2  SW 54  7217  SW 39244012     E
04/22-19 79 26  6 52 46 SSW 18 30 3 2  SW 53  5041  SW 33167239     E
04/22-20 76 25  5 47 54 SSW 16 26 3 2  SW 51  2865 SSW 29 90466   G
04/22-21 73 25  5 43 62 SSW 15 24 3 1  SW 49   690 SSW 23 13693 P
04/22-22 69 27  7 40 69 SSW 14 23 3 1  SW 55   903 SSW 24 19649 P
04/22-23 66 28  8 39 71 SSW 15 23 3 1  SW 61  1116  SW 25 25605 P
04/23-00 63 30  9 38 73 SSW 15 24 3 1  SW 67  1329  SW 28 31561 P
04/23-01 67 29  8 36 78  SW 16 25 3 1  SW 68  1057  SW 28 25269 P
04/23-02 72 21  4 35 80  SW 17 28 3 1  SW 69   786  SW 28 18977 P
04/23-03 76 26  6 34 82  SW 17 28 3 1  SW 70   515  SW 29 12686 P
04/23-04 72 25  5 33 83 WSW 16 25 3 1  SW 71   712 WSW 24 13870 P
04/23-05 67 22  4 33 81 WSW 14 22 3 1  SW 73   910 WSW 21 15054 P
04/23-06 63 22  4 33 78 WSW 13 21 3 1  SW 73  1108 WSW 17 16237 P
04/23-07 63 22  4 32 79   W 14 22 3 1  SW 70  1725   W 18 28805 P
04/23-08 63 22  4 31 78   W 15 24 2 1  SW 67  2342   W 20 41373  F
04/23-09 63 22  4 30 78   W 17 28 2 1  SW 63  2959   W 21 53940  F
04/23-10 63 22  4 32 69   W 18 29 2 1  SW 61  3867   W 24 84855   G
04/23-11 63 22  4 35 59   W 18 30 2 1 WSW 60  4775   W 26115770    V
04/23-12 63 17  3 38 50   W 20 31 2 1 WSW 58  5683   W 30146685    V
04/23-13 63 17  3 39 46   W 21 32 2 1 WSW 55  5839   W 31158749     E
04/23-14 63 17  3 39 44   W 21 35 2 1 WSW 52  5995   W 32170813     E
04/23-15 68 17  3 38 44   W 22 35 2 1 WSW 48  6150   W 35182876     E
04/23-16 68 17  3 38 41   W 22 36 2 1 WSW 47  6247   W 33180685     E
04/23-17 68 17  3 36 42   W 23 36 2 1   W 46  6344   W 32178493     E
04/23-18 56  6  1 36 40   W 22 35 2 1   W 45  6442   W 31176301     E
04/23-19 56  6  1 34 42   W 21 32 2 1   W 45  5616   W 30149393    V
04/23-20 56  6  1 31 46   W 17 29 2 1   W 44  4791   W 29122486    V
04/23-21 56  4  1 29 49   W 15 24 2 1   W 44  3966 WNW 28 95578   G
04/23-22 56  4  1 28 50   W 14 22 2 1   W 44  3469 WNW 26 79726   G
04/23-23 56  4  1 27 52   W 13 20 2 1 WNW 44  2972   W 24 63874   G
04/24-00 46  1  0 28 51   W 12 18 2 1 WNW 44  2475   W 22 48022  F
04/24-01 46  1  0 28 52   W 12 17 2 1 WNW 46  2611   W 24 53904  F
04/24-02 46  1  0 28 53   W 12 17 2 1 WNW 48  2747   W 25 59786  F
04/24-03 46  1  0 28 55   W 12 18 2 1 WNW 51  2883   W 26 65668   G
04/24-04 46  1  0 25 65   W 13 20 2 1 WNW 51  2260   W 24 49785  F
04/24-05 46  1  0 22 76   W 14 22 2 1 WNW 52  1637   W 22 33902 P
04/24-06 55  1  0 22 77 WSW 15 24 2 1 WNW 52  1013   W 21 18019 P
04/24-07 55  1  0 25 69 WSW 15 24 2 1 WNW 51  1968   W 22 40698  F
04/24-08 55  1  0 31 54 WSW 16 25 3 1 WNW 51  2922   W 24 63377   G
04/24-09 55  1  0 37 42 WSW 16 25 3 1   W 49  3877   W 25 86056   G
04/24-10 55  1  0 41 36 WSW 17 26 3 1   W 49  4259   W 24 90208   G
04/24-11 55  1  0 44 32 WSW 17 29 3 1   W 49  4642   W 23 94360   G
04/24-12 77  0  0 45 31 WSW 18 30 3 1   W 48  5025   W 23 98512   G
04/24-13 77  0  0 45 31 WSW 20 30 3 1   W 48  5620   W 24118245    V
04/24-14 77  0  0 45 31 WSW 20 31 2 1   W 47  6215   W 25137978    V
04/24-15 77  0  0 45 32 WSW 20 31 2 1   W 46  6811   W 26157711     E
04/24-16 77  0  0 46 32 WSW 20 31 2 1   W 46  6741   W 28163373     E
04/24-17 77  0  0 46 34 WSW 20 31 2 1   W 45  6671   W 29169035     E
04/24-18 62  0  0 45 37 WSW 18 30 2 1   W 45  6601 WSW 30174698     E
04/24-19 62  0  0 43 40 WSW 17 28 2 1   W 45  6021   W 31163244     E
04/24-20 62  0  0 40 46 WSW 15 25 2 1   W 45  5441   W 32151790     E
04/24-21 62  0  0 38 50 WSW 14 22 2 1 WNW 45  4861   W 33140336    V
04/24-22 62  0  0 37 52 WSW 13 20 2 1   W 47  4600   W 32127957    V
04/24-23 62  0  0 37 51 WSW 10 17 2 1   W 49  4340   W 30115578    V
04/25-00 49  0  0 37 50 WSW  9 15 2 1   W 53  4079   W 29103199    V
04/25-01 49  0  0 37 50 WSW  8 14 2 1   W 52  3678   W 26 85378   G
04/25-02 49  0  0 37 50 WSW  8 13 2 1   W 51  3278   W 23 67557   G
04/25-03 49  0  0 36 52  SW  8 13 2 1   W 49  2878   W 20 49736  F
04/25-04 49  0  0 33 57  SW  8 13 2 1   W 47  2402   W 16 37148 P
04/25-05 49  0  0 32 59 SSW  8 13 2 1   W 45  1925   W 13 24560 P
04/25-06 52  0  0 33 56 SSW  8 13 2 1   W 41  1449   W  9 11972 P
04/25-07 52  0  0 37 49 SSW  8 13 2 1   W 40  2577   W 12 30307 P
04/25-08 52  0  0 42 42 SSW  8 13 3 1   W 38  3705 WSW 14 48642  F
04/25-09 52  0  0 47 35 SSW  8 13 3 1 WSW 37  4832 WSW 16 66976   G
04/25-10 52  0  0 50 32 SSW  9 15 3 1 WSW 39  6119 WSW 18106105    V
04/25-11 52  0  0 51 31  SW 12 17 2 1 WSW 41  7406  SW 22145233    V
04/25-12 60  1  0 52 29  SW 13 21 2 1 WSW 44  8693  SW 24184362     E
04/25-13 60  1  0 53 29  SW 14 22 2 1 WSW 45  8865  SW 25199858     E
04/25-14 60  1  0 54 28  SW 15 23 3 1 WSW 47  9038  SW 28215354     E
04/25-15 60  1  0 54 29  SW 15 24 3 1 WSW 48  9210  SW 29230850     E
04/25-16 60  1  0 53 31  SW 15 24 3 1 WSW 51  8995  SW 30229997     E
04/25-17 60  1  0 51 34  SW 15 24 3 1 WSW 53  8779  SW 30229145     E
04/25-18 73  5  1 49 37  SW 15 24 3 1 WSW 55  8564 SSW 31228292     E

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
10KFT WIND  - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...COOPER
REQUESTED BY...WENDY FINNEGAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140422.BIGCR.04/BOU





000
FNUS75 KBOU 221225
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG CREEK PRESCRIBED FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
625 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON APRIL 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WARM AND GUSTY DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH PARK AND
THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN. THIS STRONG FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO GROUND LEVEL RESULTING IN GUSTY AND AT TIMES STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN AND AROUND THE BURN AREA. LOW HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MOISTURE FLOWING UP FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN
TODAY...WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(55-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
                    SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MIN HUMIDITY........37%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
                    UNTIL 1200...THEN 20-23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 10 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2 UNTIL 1300...THEN 3 UNTIL
                    1500...THEN 2.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 7900-8900 FT AGL
                    AFTER 1200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25-35 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 35-40
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN CHANCE
                    OF RAIN AND SNOW.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30.
MAX HUMIDITY........88%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12-19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 15 PERCENT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6900 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER
                    2100.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 30-40 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 20-30
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(60-65%). CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
                    SNOW SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39.
MIN HUMIDITY........40%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12-22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-3700 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 5900-6900 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20-30 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 30-35 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BIG CREEK PRESCRIBED FIRE.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  10KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

04/22-06 59  2  0 36 61  SW 14 22 3 1   W 37   795  SW 18 12747 P
04/22-07 59  2  0 41 53  SW 12 20 3 1   W 37  2473  SW 22 58875  F
04/22-08 59  2  0 47 46 SSW  9 15 3 1 WSW 38  4150  SW 26105003    V
04/22-09 56  4  1 53 39 SSW  9 15 3 1 WSW 39  5827  SW 30151131     E
04/22-10 56  4  1 56 38 SSW 14 22 3 1 WSW 40  6995  SW 31195814     E
04/22-11 56  4  1 58 37 SSW 20 31 3 1 WSW 41  8163  SW 33240498     E
04/22-12 66 10  2 59 37 SSW 24 39 3 2 WSW 43  9331  SW 36285182     E
04/22-13 66 24  5 59 39 SSW 25 41 3 3 WSW 45  9164  SW 36285690     E
04/22-14 66 24  5 59 40 SSW 25 40 3 3  SW 46  8996  SW 37286199     E
04/22-15 77 32 11 59 40  SW 24 39 3 2  SW 48  8829  SW 37286707     E
04/22-16 77 32 11 58 41 SSW 23 38 3 2  SW 49  8179  SW 38268016     E
04/22-17 77 32 11 57 40 SSW 22 36 3 2  SW 52  7529  SW 38249325     E
04/22-18 69 26  6 55 41 SSW 21 33 3 2  SW 54  6879  SW 39230633     E
04/22-19 69 26  6 51 47 SSW 18 30 3 2  SW 55  4798  SW 35158447     E
04/22-20 69 26  6 46 56 SSW 16 26 3 2  SW 56  2717  SW 30 86261   G
04/22-21 70 25  5 42 65 SSW 15 24 3 1  SW 58   636 SSW 25 14075 P
04/22-22 70 25  5 40 69 SSW 14 23 3 1  SW 61   588 SSW 26 13468 P
04/22-23 70 25  5 39 71 SSW 15 23 3 1  SW 64   540 SSW 28 12862 P
04/23-00 79 34 13 38 73 SSW 15 24 3 1  SW 68   492 SSW 29 12255 P
04/23-01 79 34 13 37 74  SW 16 25 3 1  SW 69   473  SW 29 11835 P
04/23-02 79 34 13 35 77  SW 17 26 2 1  SW 70   454  SW 29 11415 P
04/23-03 76 28  8 34 78  SW 17 28 3 1  SW 71   435  SW 29 10995 P
04/23-04 76 28  8 33 80 WSW 16 26 2 1  SW 74   632 WSW 24 11777 P
04/23-05 76 28  8 32 83   W 15 23 3 1  SW 76   828   W 20 12560 P
04/23-06 63 28  8 30 88   W 14 22 3 1  SW 78  1025   W 15 13343 P
04/23-07 63 28  8 31 83   W 15 24 3 1  SW 76  1884   W 18 34158 P
04/23-08 63 28  8 32 78   W 16 26 2 1  SW 71  2743   W 21 54973  F
04/23-09 63 28  8 34 69   W 17 28 2 1  SW 68  3602   W 24 75788   G
04/23-10 63 28  8 35 63   W 18 29 2 1  SW 64  4397   W 25100305    V
04/23-11 63 28  8 36 57   W 18 30 2 1  SW 62  5192 WSW 28124821    V
04/23-12 63 17  3 37 52   W 20 31 2 1 WSW 59  5986 WSW 29149338    V
04/23-13 63 17  3 38 47   W 21 32 2 1 WSW 56  6227 WSW 31168477     E
04/23-14 63 17  3 39 43   W 21 33 2 1 WSW 54  6468   W 33187617     E
04/23-15 63 17  3 39 42   W 22 35 2 1 WSW 53  6708   W 36206756     E
04/23-16 63 17  3 39 40   W 23 37 2 1 WSW 49  6847   W 36211435     E
04/23-17 63 17  3 38 40   W 24 38 2 1   W 47  6986   W 36216115     E
04/23-18 56  6  1 37 40   W 23 37 2 1   W 46  7125   W 36220794     E
04/23-19 56  6  1 34 43   W 20 32 2 1   W 46  6450   W 35195457     E
04/23-20 56  6  1 31 47   W 16 25 2 1   W 47  5775   W 33170120     E
04/23-21 56  6  1 29 50   W 13 21 2 1   W 49  5100 WNW 32144783    V
04/23-22 56  6  1 28 51   W 12 20 2 1 WNW 53  4584 WNW 32129380    V
04/23-23 56  6  1 27 52   W 13 20 2 1 WNW 56  4069   W 32113977    V
04/24-00 46  1  0 26 55   W 13 21 2 1 WNW 60  3553   W 32 98574   G
04/24-01 46  1  0 25 59   W 13 20 2 1 WNW 62  3163   W 31 85785   G
04/24-02 46  1  0 25 62   W 12 18 2 1 WNW 63  2773   W 30 72996   G
04/24-03 46  1  0 24 68   W 12 18 2 1 WNW 64  2383   W 29 60206   G
04/24-04 46  1  0 23 75 WSW 13 20 2 1 WNW 67  2292   W 30 58409  F
04/24-05 46  1  0 23 78 WSW 14 22 2 1 WNW 68  2201   W 30 56612  F
04/24-06 55  2  0 22 84 WSW 15 24 2 1 WNW 68  2111   W 30 54814  F
04/24-07 55  2  0 23 80 WSW 16 25 2 1 WNW 68  2732   W 30 70237   G
04/24-08 55  2  0 28 64 WSW 16 26 2 1 WNW 66  3353   W 30 85660   G
04/24-09 55  2  0 32 53 WSW 17 28 2 1 WNW 63  3974   W 29101082    V
04/24-10 55  2  0 35 45 WSW 18 29 2 1 WNW 61  4284   W 29107343    V
04/24-11 55  2  0 39 38 WSW 18 30 2 1 WNW 59  4594   W 29113603    V
04/24-12 77  2  0 41 34 WSW 20 31 2 1 WNW 55  4904   W 28119863    V
04/24-13 77  2  0 43 33 WSW 20 31 2 1   W 52  5037   W 28121570    V
04/24-14 77  2  0 45 31 WSW 20 31 2 1   W 48  5170   W 28123278    V
04/24-15 77  2  0 46 31 WSW 20 31 2 1   W 45  5303   W 28124985    V
04/24-16 77  2  0 46 33   W 20 32 2 1   W 41  5299   W 28126744    V
04/24-17 77  2  0 46 34   W 21 33 2 1   W 39  5296   W 28128503    V
04/24-18 62  5  1 44 38   W 21 33 2 1   W 37  5293   W 29130262    V
04/24-19 62  5  1 42 41   W 20 31 2 1   W 36  4418   W 26104480    V
04/24-20 62  5  1 40 45   W 18 29 2 1   W 36  3543   W 24 78698   G
04/24-21 62  5  1 38 48   W 16 25 2 1   W 37  2669   W 23 52916  F
04/24-22 62  5  1 37 49 WSW 14 22 2 1   W 39  2255   W 21 42661  F
04/24-23 62  5  1 36 50 WSW 12 20 2 1   W 43  1841 WSW 20 32405 P
04/25-00 49  3  1 36 50 WSW 10 16 2 1   W 45  1427 WSW 18 22150 P
04/25-01 49  3  1 35 51 WSW 10 16 2 1   W 45  1196 WSW 16 17608 P
04/25-02 49  3  1 34 53 WSW 10 16 2 1   W 45   965 WSW 15 13065 P
04/25-03 49  3  1 33 54  SW 10 16 2 1   W 44   734 WSW 14  8523 P
04/25-04 49  3  1 33 54  SW 10 17 2 1   W 40   685 WSW 13  7636 P
04/25-05 49  3  1 32 56 SSW 12 17 2 1   W 37   637  SW 13  6748 P
04/25-06 52  3  1 32 56 SSW 12 18 2 1   W 31   589  SW 12  5861 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
10KFT WIND  - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...BAKER
REQUESTED BY...CASEY CHEESBROUGH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140422.BIGCR.02/BOU





000
FNUS75 KBOU 212201
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG CREEK PRESCRIBED FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
400 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON APRIL 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT WINDIER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A HIGHER CHANCE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY AFTER 1400. WE DO NOT EXPECT THESE WINDS TO BE WIDESPREAD BUT THERE IS A LOW
THREAT OF BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH FROM SHOWER OUTFLOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE WINDY AND COLDER...AND IT WILL STILL BE COOL AND BREEZY ON THURSDAY.
SOME WARMING AND DRYING IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH LESS WIND AND STILL GOOD MIXING.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-36.
MAX HUMIDITY........62-72%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 6-12 MPH. GUSTS TO 20 MPH UNTIL 2000.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8400 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. BELOW 1000 FT AGL AFTER
                    0200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    1200. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-60.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-40%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    1200.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3 UNTIL 1500...THEN 2.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 5000 FT AGL BY 1000 AND 8000 FT AGL
                    BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20-30 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN AROUND 35
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    2400...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35.
MAX HUMIDITY........65-75%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
CWR.................15 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LOWERING TO 4000 FT AGL BY 2000 AND 1000 FT AGL BY 2200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20-30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900...THEN GOOD. POOR AFTER 2100.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(60-65%). CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
                    SNOW SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-40%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12-21 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 3000 FT AGL BY 1000 AND 7000 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20-30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD. EXCELLENT AFTER 1300.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S. WEST WINDS 10-16 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 9-15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 50. SOUTH WINDS 10-15 MPH.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BIG CREEK PRESCRIBED FIRE.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  10KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

04/21-15 46  7  1 55 34   W  9 15 2 1   W 18  9332 WSW 15117653    V
04/21-16 45  7  1 55 33 WSW  9 15 2 1   W 21  9018 WSW 15112875    V
04/21-17 55  6  1 54 33 WSW  8 14 2 1   W 23  8704 WSW 14108096    V
04/21-18 49  0  0 51 36  SW  8 13 2 1   W 25  8390 WSW 14103317    V
04/21-19 40  0  0 47 41  SW  8  8 2 1   W 28  6216 WSW 13 74995   G
04/21-20 40  0  0 42 49 SSW  7  7 2 1   W 29  4042 WSW 13 46673  F
04/21-21 38  0  0 38 57 SSW  7  7 2 1 WNW 30  1869  SW 12 18350 P
04/21-22 31  0  0 36 60 SSW  7  7 2 1   W 32  1611  SW 12 16429 P
04/21-23 29  0  0 36 59 SSW  8  8 3 1   W 33  1353 SSW 13 14507 P
04/22-00 27  0  0 37 57 SSW  8 13 3 1   W 36  1096 SSW 13 12586 P
04/22-01 29  0  0 37 57 SSW  8 14 3 1   W 36   998 SSW 14 12162 P
04/22-02 33  0  0 37 58 SSW  9 14 3 1   W 37   901 SSW 15 11738 P
04/22-03 33  0  0 37 59 SSW  9 15 3 1   W 38   804 SSW 16 11313 P
04/22-04 36  0  0 35 64 SSW  9 16 3 1   W 38   778 SSW 16 11207 P
04/22-05 42  0  0 34 67 SSW 10 16 3 1   W 38   753 SSW 17 11101 P
04/22-06 51  2  0 35 67 SSW 10 16 3 1   W 37   727 SSW 17 10995 P
04/22-07 51  2  0 39 62 SSW 10 16 3 1   W 38  1555  SW 21 31293 P
04/22-08 51  2  0 44 57 SSW  9 15 3 1   W 39  2384  SW 23 51592  F
04/22-09 46  4  1 49 52 SSW  9 15 3 1 WSW 40  3213  SW 25 71891   G
04/22-10 46  4  1 53 46 SSW 10 16 3 1 WSW 43  5188  SW 29140237    V
04/22-11 46  4  1 56 42 SSW 12 20 3 1 WSW 44  7163  SW 32208584     E
04/22-12 67 20  4 57 40  SW 14 22 3 3 WSW 45  9139  SW 35276931     E
04/22-13 67 20  4 57 41  SW 15 24 3 3 WSW 46  8577  SW 36263462     E
04/22-14 67 20  4 56 43  SW 16 26 2 3  SW 46  8015  SW 36249993     E
04/22-15 70 26  6 55 45  SW 17 28 2 2  SW 47  7453  SW 37236524     E
04/22-16 70 26  6 55 45 SSW 18 29 2 2  SW 48  7082  SW 36217707     E
04/22-17 70 26  6 54 45 SSW 18 29 3 2  SW 48  6710  SW 35198891     E
04/22-18 84 33 12 52 48 SSW 17 28 3 1  SW 49  6338  SW 32180074     E
04/22-19 84 33 12 49 54 SSW 16 25 3 1  SW 52  4425  SW 28122956    V
04/22-20 84 33 12 45 62 SSW 14 22 3 1  SW 54  2511 SSW 22 65838   G
04/22-21 84 33 12 41 73 SSW 12 18 3 1  SW 56   597 SSW 17  8720 P
04/22-22 84 33 12 40 73 SSW 12 18 3 1  SW 61   542 SSW 18  8314 P
04/22-23 84 33 12 39 73 SSW 13 21 3 1  SW 64   487 SSW 18  7909 P
04/23-00 79 34 13 39 70 SSW 14 22 3 1  SW 68   433  SW 20  7503 P
04/23-01 79 34 13 38 71 SSW 14 22 3 1  SW 69   485  SW 22  9401 P
04/23-02 79 34 13 37 73  SW 14 22 2 1  SW 70   538  SW 24 11298 P
04/23-03 79 34 13 36 75  SW 14 22 2 1  SW 71   591  SW 25 13196 P
04/23-04 79 34 13 35 77  SW 14 22 2 1  SW 74   966 WSW 24 18584 P
04/23-05 79 34 13 34 78 WSW 14 22 2 1  SW 76  1341   W 22 23972 P
04/23-06 66 25  5 33 78 WSW 14 22 2 1  SW 78  1717   W 20 29359 P
04/23-07 66 25  5 32 79   W 15 23 2 1  SW 74  2274   W 23 50172  F
04/23-08 66 25  5 32 75   W 16 25 2 1  SW 69  2832   W 28 70984   G
04/23-09 66 25  5 31 75   W 17 28 2 1 WSW 64  3389   W 31 91797   G
04/23-10 66 25  5 33 66   W 18 30 2 1 WSW 60  4065   W 31111286    V
04/23-11 66 25  5 36 57   W 20 31 2 1 WSW 55  4741 WSW 32130775    V
04/23-12 61 18  4 38 50   W 21 33 2 1 WSW 51  5416 WSW 32150264     E
04/23-13 61 18  4 39 45   W 22 35 2 1 WSW 49  5988   W 31162108     E
04/23-14 61 18  4 39 43   W 22 35 2 1 WSW 47  6561   W 31173951     E
04/23-15 61 18  4 39 41   W 22 35 2 1 WSW 46  7133   W 30185795     E
04/23-16 61 18  4 39 39   W 23 36 2 1 WSW 44  7176   W 30184728     E
04/23-17 61 18  4 38 39   W 23 37 2 1   W 43  7218   W 29183662     E
04/23-18 45  7  1 37 40   W 22 35 2 1   W 41  7261   W 29182595     E
04/23-19 45  7  1 35 43   W 18 30 2 1   W 40  6158   W 29152810     E
04/23-20 45  7  1 32 48   W 15 23 2 1   W 39  5056   W 28123026    V
04/23-21 45  7  1 30 51   W 12 18 2 1   W 38  3953   W 28 93241   G
04/23-22 45  7  1 28 53   W 12 18 2 1   W 40  3548   W 26 82440   G
04/23-23 45  7  1 27 54   W 12 20 2 1 WNW 43  3143 WNW 26 71640   G
04/24-00 35  2  0 27 53   W 13 21 2 1 WNW 45  2738 WNW 25 60840   G
04/24-01 35  2  0 27 52   W 12 18 2 1 WNW 48  2609   W 24 55549  F
04/24-02 35  2  0 27 53   W 10 17 3 1  NW 53  2481   W 23 50258  F
04/24-03 35  2  0 26 57 WSW 10 16 3 1  NW 56  2352   W 22 44967  F
04/24-04 35  2  0 23 70 WSW 12 18 3 1  NW 55  1943   W 21 35630 P
04/24-05 35  2  0 21 83 WSW 13 21 3 1 WNW 54  1534   W 18 26292 P
04/24-06 57  1  0 21 88 WSW 14 22 3 1 WNW 53  1124   W 17 16955 P
04/24-07 57  1  0 25 75 WSW 14 22 3 1 WNW 51  1665   W 18 26816 P
04/24-08 57  1  0 30 60 WSW 13 21 3 1 WNW 49  2206   W 18 36677 P
04/24-09 57  1  0 35 47 WSW 13 21 3 1 WNW 47  2747   W 20 46538  F
04/24-10 57  1  0 39 39 WSW 14 23 3 1   W 44  2920   W 20 49975  F
04/24-11 57  1  0 42 33 WSW 16 25 3 1   W 40  3093 WSW 20 53413  F
04/24-12 78  4  1 43 32 WSW 17 28 3 1   W 37  3267 WSW 20 56850  F
04/24-13 78  4  1 44 32 WSW 17 28 4 1   W 41  3523 WSW 21 62391   G
04/24-14 78  4  1 45 33 WSW 16 26 4 1   W 45  3780 WSW 21 67932   G
04/24-15 78  4  1 46 34 WSW 16 25 5 1 WSW 48  4037 WSW 21 73473   G
04/24-16 78  4  1 46 35 WSW 17 28 5 1 WSW 48  4035 WSW 22 76741   G
04/24-17 78  4  1 46 35   W 18 30 4 1   W 48  4033 WSW 23 80010   G
04/24-18 59  7  1 45 37   W 20 31 4 1   W 49  4031 WSW 24 83278   G

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
10KFT WIND  - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD
REQUESTED BY...CASEY CHEESBROUGH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140422.BIGCR.01/BOU





000
FNUS75 KBOU 212123
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR JUNCTION BUTTE RX...OTHER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
321 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1530 MDT ON APRIL 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
BURN AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY. MIXING WILL PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS BUT PROBABLY NOT ANY MORE THAN THERE HAS BEEN THIS
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE OF GUSTS TO 30 MPH FROM DISTANT SHOWERS
UNTIL ABOUT 2000...IF THAT HAPPENS THE DIRECTION WOULD LIKELY BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST.

TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT WINDIER...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE A BIT MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW GUSTS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
MIN HUMIDITY........28%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6-12 MPH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10500-11200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 31.
MAX HUMIDITY........81%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 1100-1800 FT AGL AFTER
                    2100.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN LIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........29%.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SOUTHWEST 10-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1200.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1200 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 8500-9500 FT AGL
                    AFTER 1200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10-20 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR JUNCTION BUTTE RX.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  10KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

04/21-15 46  0  0 62 29   W  9 15 3 1   W 23 11235 WSW 13128886    V
04/21-16 59  0  0 62 28 WSW  9 14 3 1   W 25 10885 WSW 14126259    V
04/21-17 39  0  0 60 29 WSW  8 13 3 1   W 28 10536   W 14123631    V
04/21-18 44  0  0 57 31 WSW  7  7 3 1   W 30 10186   W 14121003    V
04/21-19 37  0  0 53 36 WSW  6  6 3 1   W 30  7407 WSW 12 84231   G
04/21-20 43  0  0 50 40 SSW  5  5 3 1 WNW 30  4627  SW  9 47460  F
04/21-21 32  0  0 46 47 SSW  3  3 3 1 WNW 31  1848  SW  7 10688 P
04/21-22 27  0  0 43 53 SSW  3  3 3 1 WNW 31  1637 SSW  6  8907 P
04/21-23 27  0  0 40 59   S  3  3 3 1   W 31  1426 SSE  6  7126 P
04/22-00 28  0  0 38 64   S  3  3 3 1   W 31  1216  SE  5  5345 P
04/22-01 29  0  0 37 67   S  3  3 3 1   W 33  1183  SE  5  4675 P
04/22-02 32  0  0 36 70 SSE  2  2 3 1   W 35  1150  SE  3  4006 P
04/22-03 32  0  0 34 75 SSE  2  2 3 1   W 37  1118 ESE  3  3336 P
04/22-04 35  0  0 32 80 SSE  2  2 3 1   W 38  1144  SE  3  3378 P
04/22-05 40  0  0 31 81   S  3  3 3 1   W 39  1171  SE  3  3420 P
04/22-06 47  2  0 32 78   S  3  3 3 1   W 39  1198  SE  3  3462 P
04/22-07 47  2  0 35 73   S  2  2 3 1   W 38  1173 SSE  3  3934 P
04/22-08 47  2  0 40 64   S  2  2 3 1 WSW 37  1148   S  5  4405 P
04/22-09 53  2  0 46 53   S  2  2 3 1 WSW 35  1123   S  5  4876 P
04/22-10 53  2  0 52 44 SSW  5  5 3 1 WSW 37  3973 SSW 13 85188   G
04/22-11 53  2  0 57 37  SW  8 14 3 1 WSW 40  6823  SW 21165499     E
04/22-12 67 10  2 61 32  SW 12 18 3 2 WSW 43  9674  SW 29245810     E
04/22-13 67 10  2 63 30  SW 14 22 3 2 WSW 43  9677  SW 30249185     E
04/22-14 67 10  2 64 29  SW 15 23 3 2  SW 44  9679  SW 30252561     E
04/22-15 69 10  2 64 29  SW 15 24 3 2  SW 44  9682  SW 30255937     E
04/22-16 69 10  2 63 30  SW 15 23 3 2  SW 47  9006  SW 30231963     E
04/22-17 69 10  2 61 32  SW 13 21 3 2  SW 51  8330  SW 29207989     E
04/22-18 80 10  2 59 34  SW 12 18 3 1  SW 54  7654  SW 28184015     E
04/22-19 80 10  2 55 41  SW 10 16 3 1  SW 56  5791  SW 22128213    V
04/22-20 80 10  2 52 48 SSW  8 14 3 1  SW 58  3928 SSW 15 72411   G
04/22-21 80 10  2 49 56 SSW  7  7 3 1  SW 59  2065 SSW  9 16609 P
04/22-22 80 10  2 46 61 SSW  7  7 3 1  SW 60  1838 SSW  9 14667 P
04/22-23 80 10  2 44 63 SSW  7  7 3 1  SW 61  1610 SSW  9 12726 P
04/23-00 66 13  3 43 62 SSW  7  7 3 1  SW 63  1382 SSW  9 10784 P
04/23-01 66 13  3 41 65 SSW  8  8 3 1  SW 66  1376 SSW  9 10488 P
04/23-02 66 13  3 40 66  SW  8 14 3 1  SW 68  1371  SW  8 10193 P
04/23-03 66 13  3 38 70 WSW  9 15 3 1  SW 70  1365  SW  8  9897 P
04/23-04 66 13  3 37 70 WSW  9 15 3 1  SW 70  1322  SW  8  9406 P
04/23-05 66 13  3 36 71 WSW  9 15 2 1  SW 69  1278 WSW  8  8914 P
04/23-06 66 17  3 36 70 WSW  9 15 2 1  SW 69  1235 WSW  8  8422 P
04/23-07 66 17  3 38 65 WSW  9 15 2 1  SW 68  2901 WSW 14 53902  F
04/23-08 66 17  3 41 59   W 10 17 2 1 WSW 66  4567 WSW 21 99382   G
04/23-09 66 17  3 43 55   W 12 18 2 1 WSW 64  6233 WSW 26144862    V
04/23-10 66 17  3 45 49   W 13 21 2 1 WSW 61  6846 WSW 28165093     E
04/23-11 66 17  3 46 44   W 15 23 2 1 WSW 58  7458 WSW 29185323     E
04/23-12 63 17  3 47 40   W 16 25 2 1 WSW 55  8071 WSW 29205554     E
04/23-13 63 17  3 47 39   W 17 28 2 1 WSW 52  8507 WSW 28204801     E
04/23-14 63 17  3 47 38   W 18 29 2 1 WSW 49  8943 WSW 26204049     E
04/23-15 63 17  3 47 37   W 18 30 2 1 WSW 46  9379 WSW 25203296     E
04/23-16 63 17  3 46 38   W 17 28 2 1 WSW 44  9234   W 24191756     E
04/23-17 63 17  3 44 40   W 16 25 2 1   W 41  9088   W 23180216     E
04/23-18 42  4  1 43 41   W 14 22 2 1   W 40  8943   W 22168676     E
04/23-19 42  4  1 41 43 WNW 13 20 2 1   W 40  7289   W 21134621    V
04/23-20 42  4  1 39 44 WNW 10 17 2 1   W 40  5635 WNW 20100567    V
04/23-21 42  4  1 38 44 WNW  9 15 2 1   W 40  3981 WNW 20 66512   G
04/23-22 42  4  1 36 46 WNW  8 13 2 1   W 40  3440 WNW 16 51988  F
04/23-23 42  4  1 34 48   W  7  7 2 1 WNW 41  2899 WNW 14 37464 P
04/24-00 19  1  0 32 51   W  6  6 2 1 WNW 41  2358 WNW 12 22941 P
04/24-01 19  1  0 30 54   W  6  6 2 1 WNW 46  2350 WNW 10 21157 P
04/24-02 19  1  0 28 57   W  6  6 2 1  NW 49  2342   W  9 19374 P
04/24-03 19  1  0 27 60   W  6  6 2 1  NW 54  2333   W  9 17591 P
04/24-04 19  1  0 25 70   W  6  6 2 1  NW 51  2022   W  7 13524 P
04/24-05 19  1  0 24 80 WSW  7  7 2 1 WNW 48  1710 WSW  6  9458 P
04/24-06 40  0  0 25 81 WSW  7  7 2 1 WNW 45  1399 WSW  5  5391 P
04/24-07 40  0  0 28 71 WSW  7  7 2 1 WNW 43  2208 WSW  7 16227 P
04/24-08 40  0  0 33 55 WSW  8 13 3 1 WNW 40  3017 WSW  9 27063 P
04/24-09 40  0  0 38 42 WSW  8 13 3 1 WNW 38  3826 WSW 12 37899 P
04/24-10 40  0  0 43 32 WSW  8 13 3 1 WNW 37  4129 WSW 13 44603  F
04/24-11 40  0  0 48 25 WSW  8 14 4 1   W 36  4432 WSW 13 51307  F
04/24-12 59  0  0 51 22 WSW  9 15 4 1   W 33  4736 WSW 14 58011  F
04/24-13 59  0  0 53 20 WSW 12 18 4 1   W 37  5321 WSW 16 75124   G
04/24-14 59  0  0 54 20 WSW 14 22 4 1 WSW 40  5906 WSW 17 92237   G
04/24-15 59  0  0 54 21 WSW 15 24 4 1 WSW 43  6492 WSW 20109350    V
04/24-16 59  0  0 54 22 WSW 15 24 4 1 WSW 41  6477 WSW 21113550    V
04/24-17 59  0  0 53 24   W 14 22 4 1 WSW 40  6463 WSW 21117751    V
04/24-18 47  3  1 52 26   W 13 21 4 1 WSW 39  6448 WSW 22121952    V

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
10KFT WIND  - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD
REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL ST  MARTIN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140421.JUNCT.02/BOU





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