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000
FNUS75 KBOU 301807 CCA
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR ESTES CONE SAR...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1200 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...FEW CORRECTIONS TO DISCUSSION...

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1118 MDT ON AUGUST 30. IF
CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AT THIS TIME AND IN THE NEXT HOUR OF SO...SHOULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS FORMING IN
THE AREA OF THE SAR. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN 30
MINUTES. LOOK FOR STORMS TO DRIFT EAST TODAY. SO WATCH FOR ANY
STORMS TO YOUR WEST OR NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWEST COLORADO. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SEARCH AREA
BY MORNING BRINGING WITH IT MORE CLOUDS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1400...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300 UNTIL
                    1700...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........24%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH UNTIL
                    1500...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1300.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 10 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3 UNTIL
                    1700...THEN 4.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2300...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MAX HUMIDITY........69%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    WEST 8-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................15 PERCENT DECREASING TO 5 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    EVENING.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 2.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ESTES CONE SAR.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

08/30-11 40  0  0 67 32 WSW 16 25 3 1   W 13  8342   W 16120706    V
08/30-12 52  7  1 70 29   W 13 13 3 1   W 15 10120   W 14119751    V
08/30-13 59 13  3 72 26   W 10 10 3 2   W 13 10707   W 12107752    V
08/30-14 65 16  3 73 24 WSW  7  7 3 3   W 12 11293   W  9 93678   G
08/30-15 75 19  4 72 25 WSW  5  5 3 3   W  9 11880   W  8 77527   G
08/30-16 69 24  5 71 27 SSW  8  8 3 3   W  9 11314 WSW  8 77184   G
08/30-17 73 28  8 69 30  NW  2  2 3 4 WSW  9 10747  SW  8 76505   G
08/30-18 76 32 11 67 34   CALM  0 3 4 WSW  9 10181  SW  8 75490   G
08/30-19 78 35 13 64 38   CALM 14 3 4 WSW 10  7748 WSW 12 75213   G
08/30-20 81 35 13 61 42   W  3 13 3 4 WSW 12  5315 WSW 14 63451   G
08/30-21 82 35 13 59 47 WSW  8 13 3 3  SW 12  3085 WSW 15 40103  F
08/30-22 82 30  9 58 51 WSW  9 15 3 3 WSW 10  2677   W 17 39511 P
08/30-23 78 24  5 57 53   W 10 16 3 2 WSW 10  2270   W 20 37489 P
08/31-00 72 23  5 57 55   W 12 18 3 2 WSW  9  1863   W 21 34036 P
08/31-01 73 21  4 56 59   W 12 18 3 2   W 12  1791   W 23 35345 P
08/31-02 73 20  4 55 61   W 12 18 3 2   W 14  1719   W 24 36444 P
08/31-03 73 18  4 54 64   W 12 18 3 2   W 15  1647   W 26 37331 P
08/31-04 73 17  3 53 66   W 12 18 3 2 WNW 12  1638   W 23 32927 P
08/31-05 75 21  4 52 69   W 12 18 3 2 WNW  8  1629   W 20 28027 P
08/31-06 77 21  4 52 69   W 12 18 3 2  NW  6  1619   W 16 23180 P
08/31-07 77 24  5 53 66   W 10 16 3 2 WNW  3  2630   W 13 29091 P
08/31-08 77 26  6 54 61   W  9 14 3 3 WSW  2  3641   W  9 28424 P
08/31-09 77 28  8 56 57   W  8 13 3 3  SW  2  4652   W  6 21179 P
08/31-10 77 31 10 60 49 WSW  8 13 3 3 WSW  5  6239   W  6 30924 P
08/31-11 77 33 12 63 43 SSW  8 13 2 3 WSW  7  7826  SW  6 41951  F
08/31-12 86 36 14 65 40   S  8 13 2 3 WSW 10  9413  SW  7 54260  F
08/31-13 86 39 17 66 38   S  8 14 2 3 WSW 12  9272  SW  7 60002   G
08/31-14 86 42 19 66 40 SSE  9 15 2 3  SW 13  9130 SSW  8 65544   G
08/31-15 86 45 22 65 43 SSE  9 15 2 3  SW 13  8989 SSW  9 70886   G
08/31-16 86 42 19 64 46   S  8 13 2 3  SW 12  8516 SSW  9 63906   G
08/31-17 86 35 13 63 48   S  7  7 2 3  SW 10  8043   S  8 57286  F
08/31-18 80 32 11 62 50 SSW  6  6 2 4  SW  9  7569   S  8 51028  F
08/31-19 80 32 11 59 55 SSW  6  6 2 4  SW 10  6233 SSW  7 40034  F
08/31-20 80 32 11 57 58 SSW  7  7 2 4 WSW 12  4897 SSW  7 29892 P
08/31-21 80 32 11 55 61 SSW  7  7 2 4   W 12  3561  SW  7 20602 P
08/31-22 80 32 11 53 66 SSW  7  7 2 4   W 12  2919  SW  7 16900 P
08/31-23 80 32 11 52 69  SW  6  6 2 4   W 10  2277  SW  7 13192 P
09/01-00 50  8  2 51 71  SW  6  6 2 1 WNW 10  1635  SW  7  9479 P
09/01-01 50  8  2 51 69 WSW  6  6 2 1 WNW 12  1489 WSW  8  9813 P
09/01-02 50  8  2 50 68 WSW  7  7 2 1 WNW 14  1342   W  8  9915 P
09/01-03 50  8  2 49 68   W  7  7 2 1 WNW 15  1196   W  9  9784 P
09/01-04 50  8  2 48 70   W  7  7 2 1 WNW 16  1096   W 10  9573 P
09/01-05 50  8  2 47 73   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 16   997   W 10  9254 P
09/01-06 42  9  2 47 74   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 16   898   W 12  8825 P
09/01-07 42  9  2 48 71   W  8 14 3 1 WNW 15  1731 WNW 13 18349 P
09/01-08 42  9  2 51 64   W  8 14 3 1 WNW 15  2565 WNW 13 29152 P
09/01-09 42  9  2 55 55   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 14  3398 WNW 14 41236  F
09/01-10 42  9  2 59 47   W  7  7 3 1 WNW 14  5878   W 14 67630   G
09/01-11 42  9  2 64 39 WSW  7  7 3 1   W 14  8358   W 13 90911   G
09/01-12 66 26  6 67 34 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 14 10837   W 12111078    V
09/01-13 66 26  6 69 32 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 14 10995   W 13116378    V
09/01-14 66 26  6 69 32 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14 11153   W 13121785    V
09/01-15 66 26  6 68 33 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 15 11311 WSW 13127297    V
09/01-16 66 26  6 67 35 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 15 10724 WSW 13119798    V
09/01-17 66 26  6 66 37 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14 10137 WSW 13112396    V
09/01-18 65 26  6 65 38 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14  9550 WSW 13105092    V
09/01-19 65 26  6 63 41 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14  7837 WSW 12 82121   G
09/01-20 65 26  6 60 46 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 13  6124 WSW 12 60951   G
09/01-21 65 26  6 58 50 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 13  4411 WSW 10 41581  F
09/01-22 65 26  6 56 53 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 13  3511   W 12 35399 P
09/01-23 65 26  6 55 55 WSW  6  6 3 4 WSW 13  2611   W 13 28037 P
09/02-00 43  4  1 54 57 WSW  6  6 3 1 WSW 13  1711   W 13 19497 P
09/02-01 43  4  1 53 58 WSW  6  6 3 1 WSW 12  1535   W 15 19583 P
09/02-02 43  4  1 52 60 WSW  7  7 4 1 WSW 10  1360   W 16 19189 P
09/02-03 43  4  1 51 61 WSW  7  7 4 1 WSW 10  1184   W 17 18317 P
09/02-04 43  4  1 50 62   W  7  7 4 1 WSW  9  1113   W 18 17842 P
09/02-05 43  4  1 49 64   W  8 13 4 1 WSW  8  1042   W 20 17287 P
09/02-06 42  2  0 49 63   W  8 13 4 1 WSW  7   971   W 20 16654 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...BAKER...NWS BOULDER
REQUESTED BY...MIKE NATTRASS
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20150830.ESTES.01/BOU





000
FNUS75 KBOU 301807 CCA
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR ESTES CONE SAR...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1200 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...FEW CORRECTIONS TO DISCUSSION...

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1118 MDT ON AUGUST 30. IF
CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AT THIS TIME AND IN THE NEXT HOUR OF SO...SHOULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS FORMING IN
THE AREA OF THE SAR. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN 30
MINUTES. LOOK FOR STORMS TO DRIFT EAST TODAY. SO WATCH FOR ANY
STORMS TO YOUR WEST OR NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWEST COLORADO. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SEARCH AREA
BY MORNING BRINGING WITH IT MORE CLOUDS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1400...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300 UNTIL
                    1700...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........24%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH UNTIL
                    1500...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1300.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 10 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3 UNTIL
                    1700...THEN 4.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2300...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MAX HUMIDITY........69%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    WEST 8-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................15 PERCENT DECREASING TO 5 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    EVENING.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 2.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ESTES CONE SAR.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

08/30-11 40  0  0 67 32 WSW 16 25 3 1   W 13  8342   W 16120706    V
08/30-12 52  7  1 70 29   W 13 13 3 1   W 15 10120   W 14119751    V
08/30-13 59 13  3 72 26   W 10 10 3 2   W 13 10707   W 12107752    V
08/30-14 65 16  3 73 24 WSW  7  7 3 3   W 12 11293   W  9 93678   G
08/30-15 75 19  4 72 25 WSW  5  5 3 3   W  9 11880   W  8 77527   G
08/30-16 69 24  5 71 27 SSW  8  8 3 3   W  9 11314 WSW  8 77184   G
08/30-17 73 28  8 69 30  NW  2  2 3 4 WSW  9 10747  SW  8 76505   G
08/30-18 76 32 11 67 34   CALM  0 3 4 WSW  9 10181  SW  8 75490   G
08/30-19 78 35 13 64 38   CALM 14 3 4 WSW 10  7748 WSW 12 75213   G
08/30-20 81 35 13 61 42   W  3 13 3 4 WSW 12  5315 WSW 14 63451   G
08/30-21 82 35 13 59 47 WSW  8 13 3 3  SW 12  3085 WSW 15 40103  F
08/30-22 82 30  9 58 51 WSW  9 15 3 3 WSW 10  2677   W 17 39511 P
08/30-23 78 24  5 57 53   W 10 16 3 2 WSW 10  2270   W 20 37489 P
08/31-00 72 23  5 57 55   W 12 18 3 2 WSW  9  1863   W 21 34036 P
08/31-01 73 21  4 56 59   W 12 18 3 2   W 12  1791   W 23 35345 P
08/31-02 73 20  4 55 61   W 12 18 3 2   W 14  1719   W 24 36444 P
08/31-03 73 18  4 54 64   W 12 18 3 2   W 15  1647   W 26 37331 P
08/31-04 73 17  3 53 66   W 12 18 3 2 WNW 12  1638   W 23 32927 P
08/31-05 75 21  4 52 69   W 12 18 3 2 WNW  8  1629   W 20 28027 P
08/31-06 77 21  4 52 69   W 12 18 3 2  NW  6  1619   W 16 23180 P
08/31-07 77 24  5 53 66   W 10 16 3 2 WNW  3  2630   W 13 29091 P
08/31-08 77 26  6 54 61   W  9 14 3 3 WSW  2  3641   W  9 28424 P
08/31-09 77 28  8 56 57   W  8 13 3 3  SW  2  4652   W  6 21179 P
08/31-10 77 31 10 60 49 WSW  8 13 3 3 WSW  5  6239   W  6 30924 P
08/31-11 77 33 12 63 43 SSW  8 13 2 3 WSW  7  7826  SW  6 41951  F
08/31-12 86 36 14 65 40   S  8 13 2 3 WSW 10  9413  SW  7 54260  F
08/31-13 86 39 17 66 38   S  8 14 2 3 WSW 12  9272  SW  7 60002   G
08/31-14 86 42 19 66 40 SSE  9 15 2 3  SW 13  9130 SSW  8 65544   G
08/31-15 86 45 22 65 43 SSE  9 15 2 3  SW 13  8989 SSW  9 70886   G
08/31-16 86 42 19 64 46   S  8 13 2 3  SW 12  8516 SSW  9 63906   G
08/31-17 86 35 13 63 48   S  7  7 2 3  SW 10  8043   S  8 57286  F
08/31-18 80 32 11 62 50 SSW  6  6 2 4  SW  9  7569   S  8 51028  F
08/31-19 80 32 11 59 55 SSW  6  6 2 4  SW 10  6233 SSW  7 40034  F
08/31-20 80 32 11 57 58 SSW  7  7 2 4 WSW 12  4897 SSW  7 29892 P
08/31-21 80 32 11 55 61 SSW  7  7 2 4   W 12  3561  SW  7 20602 P
08/31-22 80 32 11 53 66 SSW  7  7 2 4   W 12  2919  SW  7 16900 P
08/31-23 80 32 11 52 69  SW  6  6 2 4   W 10  2277  SW  7 13192 P
09/01-00 50  8  2 51 71  SW  6  6 2 1 WNW 10  1635  SW  7  9479 P
09/01-01 50  8  2 51 69 WSW  6  6 2 1 WNW 12  1489 WSW  8  9813 P
09/01-02 50  8  2 50 68 WSW  7  7 2 1 WNW 14  1342   W  8  9915 P
09/01-03 50  8  2 49 68   W  7  7 2 1 WNW 15  1196   W  9  9784 P
09/01-04 50  8  2 48 70   W  7  7 2 1 WNW 16  1096   W 10  9573 P
09/01-05 50  8  2 47 73   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 16   997   W 10  9254 P
09/01-06 42  9  2 47 74   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 16   898   W 12  8825 P
09/01-07 42  9  2 48 71   W  8 14 3 1 WNW 15  1731 WNW 13 18349 P
09/01-08 42  9  2 51 64   W  8 14 3 1 WNW 15  2565 WNW 13 29152 P
09/01-09 42  9  2 55 55   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 14  3398 WNW 14 41236  F
09/01-10 42  9  2 59 47   W  7  7 3 1 WNW 14  5878   W 14 67630   G
09/01-11 42  9  2 64 39 WSW  7  7 3 1   W 14  8358   W 13 90911   G
09/01-12 66 26  6 67 34 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 14 10837   W 12111078    V
09/01-13 66 26  6 69 32 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 14 10995   W 13116378    V
09/01-14 66 26  6 69 32 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14 11153   W 13121785    V
09/01-15 66 26  6 68 33 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 15 11311 WSW 13127297    V
09/01-16 66 26  6 67 35 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 15 10724 WSW 13119798    V
09/01-17 66 26  6 66 37 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14 10137 WSW 13112396    V
09/01-18 65 26  6 65 38 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14  9550 WSW 13105092    V
09/01-19 65 26  6 63 41 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14  7837 WSW 12 82121   G
09/01-20 65 26  6 60 46 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 13  6124 WSW 12 60951   G
09/01-21 65 26  6 58 50 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 13  4411 WSW 10 41581  F
09/01-22 65 26  6 56 53 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 13  3511   W 12 35399 P
09/01-23 65 26  6 55 55 WSW  6  6 3 4 WSW 13  2611   W 13 28037 P
09/02-00 43  4  1 54 57 WSW  6  6 3 1 WSW 13  1711   W 13 19497 P
09/02-01 43  4  1 53 58 WSW  6  6 3 1 WSW 12  1535   W 15 19583 P
09/02-02 43  4  1 52 60 WSW  7  7 4 1 WSW 10  1360   W 16 19189 P
09/02-03 43  4  1 51 61 WSW  7  7 4 1 WSW 10  1184   W 17 18317 P
09/02-04 43  4  1 50 62   W  7  7 4 1 WSW  9  1113   W 18 17842 P
09/02-05 43  4  1 49 64   W  8 13 4 1 WSW  8  1042   W 20 17287 P
09/02-06 42  2  0 49 63   W  8 13 4 1 WSW  7   971   W 20 16654 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...BAKER...NWS BOULDER
REQUESTED BY...MIKE NATTRASS
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20150830.ESTES.01/BOU




000
FNUS75 KBOU 301807 CCA
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR ESTES CONE SAR...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1200 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...FEW CORRECTIONS TO DISCUSSION...

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1118 MDT ON AUGUST 30. IF
CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AT THIS TIME AND IN THE NEXT HOUR OF SO...SHOULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS FORMING IN
THE AREA OF THE SAR. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN 30
MINUTES. LOOK FOR STORMS TO DRIFT EAST TODAY. SO WATCH FOR ANY
STORMS TO YOUR WEST OR NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWEST COLORADO. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SEARCH AREA
BY MORNING BRINGING WITH IT MORE CLOUDS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1400...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300 UNTIL
                    1700...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........24%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH UNTIL
                    1500...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1300.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 10 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3 UNTIL
                    1700...THEN 4.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2300...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MAX HUMIDITY........69%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    WEST 8-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................15 PERCENT DECREASING TO 5 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    EVENING.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 2.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ESTES CONE SAR.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

08/30-11 40  0  0 67 32 WSW 16 25 3 1   W 13  8342   W 16120706    V
08/30-12 52  7  1 70 29   W 13 13 3 1   W 15 10120   W 14119751    V
08/30-13 59 13  3 72 26   W 10 10 3 2   W 13 10707   W 12107752    V
08/30-14 65 16  3 73 24 WSW  7  7 3 3   W 12 11293   W  9 93678   G
08/30-15 75 19  4 72 25 WSW  5  5 3 3   W  9 11880   W  8 77527   G
08/30-16 69 24  5 71 27 SSW  8  8 3 3   W  9 11314 WSW  8 77184   G
08/30-17 73 28  8 69 30  NW  2  2 3 4 WSW  9 10747  SW  8 76505   G
08/30-18 76 32 11 67 34   CALM  0 3 4 WSW  9 10181  SW  8 75490   G
08/30-19 78 35 13 64 38   CALM 14 3 4 WSW 10  7748 WSW 12 75213   G
08/30-20 81 35 13 61 42   W  3 13 3 4 WSW 12  5315 WSW 14 63451   G
08/30-21 82 35 13 59 47 WSW  8 13 3 3  SW 12  3085 WSW 15 40103  F
08/30-22 82 30  9 58 51 WSW  9 15 3 3 WSW 10  2677   W 17 39511 P
08/30-23 78 24  5 57 53   W 10 16 3 2 WSW 10  2270   W 20 37489 P
08/31-00 72 23  5 57 55   W 12 18 3 2 WSW  9  1863   W 21 34036 P
08/31-01 73 21  4 56 59   W 12 18 3 2   W 12  1791   W 23 35345 P
08/31-02 73 20  4 55 61   W 12 18 3 2   W 14  1719   W 24 36444 P
08/31-03 73 18  4 54 64   W 12 18 3 2   W 15  1647   W 26 37331 P
08/31-04 73 17  3 53 66   W 12 18 3 2 WNW 12  1638   W 23 32927 P
08/31-05 75 21  4 52 69   W 12 18 3 2 WNW  8  1629   W 20 28027 P
08/31-06 77 21  4 52 69   W 12 18 3 2  NW  6  1619   W 16 23180 P
08/31-07 77 24  5 53 66   W 10 16 3 2 WNW  3  2630   W 13 29091 P
08/31-08 77 26  6 54 61   W  9 14 3 3 WSW  2  3641   W  9 28424 P
08/31-09 77 28  8 56 57   W  8 13 3 3  SW  2  4652   W  6 21179 P
08/31-10 77 31 10 60 49 WSW  8 13 3 3 WSW  5  6239   W  6 30924 P
08/31-11 77 33 12 63 43 SSW  8 13 2 3 WSW  7  7826  SW  6 41951  F
08/31-12 86 36 14 65 40   S  8 13 2 3 WSW 10  9413  SW  7 54260  F
08/31-13 86 39 17 66 38   S  8 14 2 3 WSW 12  9272  SW  7 60002   G
08/31-14 86 42 19 66 40 SSE  9 15 2 3  SW 13  9130 SSW  8 65544   G
08/31-15 86 45 22 65 43 SSE  9 15 2 3  SW 13  8989 SSW  9 70886   G
08/31-16 86 42 19 64 46   S  8 13 2 3  SW 12  8516 SSW  9 63906   G
08/31-17 86 35 13 63 48   S  7  7 2 3  SW 10  8043   S  8 57286  F
08/31-18 80 32 11 62 50 SSW  6  6 2 4  SW  9  7569   S  8 51028  F
08/31-19 80 32 11 59 55 SSW  6  6 2 4  SW 10  6233 SSW  7 40034  F
08/31-20 80 32 11 57 58 SSW  7  7 2 4 WSW 12  4897 SSW  7 29892 P
08/31-21 80 32 11 55 61 SSW  7  7 2 4   W 12  3561  SW  7 20602 P
08/31-22 80 32 11 53 66 SSW  7  7 2 4   W 12  2919  SW  7 16900 P
08/31-23 80 32 11 52 69  SW  6  6 2 4   W 10  2277  SW  7 13192 P
09/01-00 50  8  2 51 71  SW  6  6 2 1 WNW 10  1635  SW  7  9479 P
09/01-01 50  8  2 51 69 WSW  6  6 2 1 WNW 12  1489 WSW  8  9813 P
09/01-02 50  8  2 50 68 WSW  7  7 2 1 WNW 14  1342   W  8  9915 P
09/01-03 50  8  2 49 68   W  7  7 2 1 WNW 15  1196   W  9  9784 P
09/01-04 50  8  2 48 70   W  7  7 2 1 WNW 16  1096   W 10  9573 P
09/01-05 50  8  2 47 73   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 16   997   W 10  9254 P
09/01-06 42  9  2 47 74   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 16   898   W 12  8825 P
09/01-07 42  9  2 48 71   W  8 14 3 1 WNW 15  1731 WNW 13 18349 P
09/01-08 42  9  2 51 64   W  8 14 3 1 WNW 15  2565 WNW 13 29152 P
09/01-09 42  9  2 55 55   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 14  3398 WNW 14 41236  F
09/01-10 42  9  2 59 47   W  7  7 3 1 WNW 14  5878   W 14 67630   G
09/01-11 42  9  2 64 39 WSW  7  7 3 1   W 14  8358   W 13 90911   G
09/01-12 66 26  6 67 34 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 14 10837   W 12111078    V
09/01-13 66 26  6 69 32 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 14 10995   W 13116378    V
09/01-14 66 26  6 69 32 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14 11153   W 13121785    V
09/01-15 66 26  6 68 33 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 15 11311 WSW 13127297    V
09/01-16 66 26  6 67 35 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 15 10724 WSW 13119798    V
09/01-17 66 26  6 66 37 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14 10137 WSW 13112396    V
09/01-18 65 26  6 65 38 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14  9550 WSW 13105092    V
09/01-19 65 26  6 63 41 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14  7837 WSW 12 82121   G
09/01-20 65 26  6 60 46 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 13  6124 WSW 12 60951   G
09/01-21 65 26  6 58 50 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 13  4411 WSW 10 41581  F
09/01-22 65 26  6 56 53 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 13  3511   W 12 35399 P
09/01-23 65 26  6 55 55 WSW  6  6 3 4 WSW 13  2611   W 13 28037 P
09/02-00 43  4  1 54 57 WSW  6  6 3 1 WSW 13  1711   W 13 19497 P
09/02-01 43  4  1 53 58 WSW  6  6 3 1 WSW 12  1535   W 15 19583 P
09/02-02 43  4  1 52 60 WSW  7  7 4 1 WSW 10  1360   W 16 19189 P
09/02-03 43  4  1 51 61 WSW  7  7 4 1 WSW 10  1184   W 17 18317 P
09/02-04 43  4  1 50 62   W  7  7 4 1 WSW  9  1113   W 18 17842 P
09/02-05 43  4  1 49 64   W  8 13 4 1 WSW  8  1042   W 20 17287 P
09/02-06 42  2  0 49 63   W  8 13 4 1 WSW  7   971   W 20 16654 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...BAKER...NWS BOULDER
REQUESTED BY...MIKE NATTRASS
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20150830.ESTES.01/BOU





000
FNUS75 KBOU 301807 CCA
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR ESTES CONE SAR...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1200 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...FEW CORRECTIONS TO DISCUSSION...

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1118 MDT ON AUGUST 30. IF
CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AT THIS TIME AND IN THE NEXT HOUR OF SO...SHOULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS FORMING IN
THE AREA OF THE SAR. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40
MPH. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN 30
MINUTES. LOOK FOR STORMS TO DRIFT EAST TODAY. SO WATCH FOR ANY
STORMS TO YOUR WEST OR NORTHWEST. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWEST COLORADO. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SEARCH AREA
BY MORNING BRINGING WITH IT MORE CLOUDS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1400...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300 UNTIL
                    1700...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........24%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH UNTIL
                    1500...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1300.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 10 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3 UNTIL
                    1700...THEN 4.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2300...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MAX HUMIDITY........69%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    WEST 8-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................15 PERCENT DECREASING TO 5 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    EVENING.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 2.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ESTES CONE SAR.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

08/30-11 40  0  0 67 32 WSW 16 25 3 1   W 13  8342   W 16120706    V
08/30-12 52  7  1 70 29   W 13 13 3 1   W 15 10120   W 14119751    V
08/30-13 59 13  3 72 26   W 10 10 3 2   W 13 10707   W 12107752    V
08/30-14 65 16  3 73 24 WSW  7  7 3 3   W 12 11293   W  9 93678   G
08/30-15 75 19  4 72 25 WSW  5  5 3 3   W  9 11880   W  8 77527   G
08/30-16 69 24  5 71 27 SSW  8  8 3 3   W  9 11314 WSW  8 77184   G
08/30-17 73 28  8 69 30  NW  2  2 3 4 WSW  9 10747  SW  8 76505   G
08/30-18 76 32 11 67 34   CALM  0 3 4 WSW  9 10181  SW  8 75490   G
08/30-19 78 35 13 64 38   CALM 14 3 4 WSW 10  7748 WSW 12 75213   G
08/30-20 81 35 13 61 42   W  3 13 3 4 WSW 12  5315 WSW 14 63451   G
08/30-21 82 35 13 59 47 WSW  8 13 3 3  SW 12  3085 WSW 15 40103  F
08/30-22 82 30  9 58 51 WSW  9 15 3 3 WSW 10  2677   W 17 39511 P
08/30-23 78 24  5 57 53   W 10 16 3 2 WSW 10  2270   W 20 37489 P
08/31-00 72 23  5 57 55   W 12 18 3 2 WSW  9  1863   W 21 34036 P
08/31-01 73 21  4 56 59   W 12 18 3 2   W 12  1791   W 23 35345 P
08/31-02 73 20  4 55 61   W 12 18 3 2   W 14  1719   W 24 36444 P
08/31-03 73 18  4 54 64   W 12 18 3 2   W 15  1647   W 26 37331 P
08/31-04 73 17  3 53 66   W 12 18 3 2 WNW 12  1638   W 23 32927 P
08/31-05 75 21  4 52 69   W 12 18 3 2 WNW  8  1629   W 20 28027 P
08/31-06 77 21  4 52 69   W 12 18 3 2  NW  6  1619   W 16 23180 P
08/31-07 77 24  5 53 66   W 10 16 3 2 WNW  3  2630   W 13 29091 P
08/31-08 77 26  6 54 61   W  9 14 3 3 WSW  2  3641   W  9 28424 P
08/31-09 77 28  8 56 57   W  8 13 3 3  SW  2  4652   W  6 21179 P
08/31-10 77 31 10 60 49 WSW  8 13 3 3 WSW  5  6239   W  6 30924 P
08/31-11 77 33 12 63 43 SSW  8 13 2 3 WSW  7  7826  SW  6 41951  F
08/31-12 86 36 14 65 40   S  8 13 2 3 WSW 10  9413  SW  7 54260  F
08/31-13 86 39 17 66 38   S  8 14 2 3 WSW 12  9272  SW  7 60002   G
08/31-14 86 42 19 66 40 SSE  9 15 2 3  SW 13  9130 SSW  8 65544   G
08/31-15 86 45 22 65 43 SSE  9 15 2 3  SW 13  8989 SSW  9 70886   G
08/31-16 86 42 19 64 46   S  8 13 2 3  SW 12  8516 SSW  9 63906   G
08/31-17 86 35 13 63 48   S  7  7 2 3  SW 10  8043   S  8 57286  F
08/31-18 80 32 11 62 50 SSW  6  6 2 4  SW  9  7569   S  8 51028  F
08/31-19 80 32 11 59 55 SSW  6  6 2 4  SW 10  6233 SSW  7 40034  F
08/31-20 80 32 11 57 58 SSW  7  7 2 4 WSW 12  4897 SSW  7 29892 P
08/31-21 80 32 11 55 61 SSW  7  7 2 4   W 12  3561  SW  7 20602 P
08/31-22 80 32 11 53 66 SSW  7  7 2 4   W 12  2919  SW  7 16900 P
08/31-23 80 32 11 52 69  SW  6  6 2 4   W 10  2277  SW  7 13192 P
09/01-00 50  8  2 51 71  SW  6  6 2 1 WNW 10  1635  SW  7  9479 P
09/01-01 50  8  2 51 69 WSW  6  6 2 1 WNW 12  1489 WSW  8  9813 P
09/01-02 50  8  2 50 68 WSW  7  7 2 1 WNW 14  1342   W  8  9915 P
09/01-03 50  8  2 49 68   W  7  7 2 1 WNW 15  1196   W  9  9784 P
09/01-04 50  8  2 48 70   W  7  7 2 1 WNW 16  1096   W 10  9573 P
09/01-05 50  8  2 47 73   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 16   997   W 10  9254 P
09/01-06 42  9  2 47 74   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 16   898   W 12  8825 P
09/01-07 42  9  2 48 71   W  8 14 3 1 WNW 15  1731 WNW 13 18349 P
09/01-08 42  9  2 51 64   W  8 14 3 1 WNW 15  2565 WNW 13 29152 P
09/01-09 42  9  2 55 55   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 14  3398 WNW 14 41236  F
09/01-10 42  9  2 59 47   W  7  7 3 1 WNW 14  5878   W 14 67630   G
09/01-11 42  9  2 64 39 WSW  7  7 3 1   W 14  8358   W 13 90911   G
09/01-12 66 26  6 67 34 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 14 10837   W 12111078    V
09/01-13 66 26  6 69 32 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 14 10995   W 13116378    V
09/01-14 66 26  6 69 32 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14 11153   W 13121785    V
09/01-15 66 26  6 68 33 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 15 11311 WSW 13127297    V
09/01-16 66 26  6 67 35 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 15 10724 WSW 13119798    V
09/01-17 66 26  6 66 37 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14 10137 WSW 13112396    V
09/01-18 65 26  6 65 38 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14  9550 WSW 13105092    V
09/01-19 65 26  6 63 41 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14  7837 WSW 12 82121   G
09/01-20 65 26  6 60 46 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 13  6124 WSW 12 60951   G
09/01-21 65 26  6 58 50 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 13  4411 WSW 10 41581  F
09/01-22 65 26  6 56 53 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 13  3511   W 12 35399 P
09/01-23 65 26  6 55 55 WSW  6  6 3 4 WSW 13  2611   W 13 28037 P
09/02-00 43  4  1 54 57 WSW  6  6 3 1 WSW 13  1711   W 13 19497 P
09/02-01 43  4  1 53 58 WSW  6  6 3 1 WSW 12  1535   W 15 19583 P
09/02-02 43  4  1 52 60 WSW  7  7 4 1 WSW 10  1360   W 16 19189 P
09/02-03 43  4  1 51 61 WSW  7  7 4 1 WSW 10  1184   W 17 18317 P
09/02-04 43  4  1 50 62   W  7  7 4 1 WSW  9  1113   W 18 17842 P
09/02-05 43  4  1 49 64   W  8 13 4 1 WSW  8  1042   W 20 17287 P
09/02-06 42  2  0 49 63   W  8 13 4 1 WSW  7   971   W 20 16654 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...BAKER...NWS BOULDER
REQUESTED BY...MIKE NATTRASS
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20150830.ESTES.01/BOU




000
FNUS75 KBOU 301800
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR ESTES CONE SAR...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1200 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1118 MDT ON AUGUST 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AT THIS TIME AND IN THE NEXT HOUR OF SO...SHOULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS FORMING IN
THE AREA. STORM WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. IN
ADDITION...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN 30
MINUTES. STORMS WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY. SO WATCH FOR ANY STORMS TO
YOUR WEST OR NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
COLORADO. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SEARCH AREA BY
MORNING BRINGING WITH IT MORE CLOUDS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1400...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300 UNTIL
                    1700...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........24%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH UNTIL
                    1500...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1300.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 10 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3 UNTIL
                    1700...THEN 4.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2300...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MAX HUMIDITY........69%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    WEST 8-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................15 PERCENT DECREASING TO 5 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    EVENING.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 2.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ESTES CONE SAR.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

08/30-11 40  0  0 67 32 WSW 16 25 3 1   W 13  8342   W 16120706    V
08/30-12 52  7  1 70 29   W 13 13 3 1   W 15 10120   W 14119751    V
08/30-13 59 13  3 72 26   W 10 10 3 2   W 13 10707   W 12107752    V
08/30-14 65 16  3 73 24 WSW  7  7 3 3   W 12 11293   W  9 93678   G
08/30-15 75 19  4 72 25 WSW  5  5 3 3   W  9 11880   W  8 77527   G
08/30-16 69 24  5 71 27 SSW  8  8 3 3   W  9 11314 WSW  8 77184   G
08/30-17 73 28  8 69 30  NW  2  2 3 4 WSW  9 10747  SW  8 76505   G
08/30-18 76 32 11 67 34   CALM  0 3 4 WSW  9 10181  SW  8 75490   G
08/30-19 78 35 13 64 38   CALM 14 3 4 WSW 10  7748 WSW 12 75213   G
08/30-20 81 35 13 61 42   W  3 13 3 4 WSW 12  5315 WSW 14 63451   G
08/30-21 82 35 13 59 47 WSW  8 13 3 3  SW 12  3085 WSW 15 40103  F
08/30-22 82 30  9 58 51 WSW  9 15 3 3 WSW 10  2677   W 17 39511 P
08/30-23 78 24  5 57 53   W 10 16 3 2 WSW 10  2270   W 20 37489 P
08/31-00 72 23  5 57 55   W 12 18 3 2 WSW  9  1863   W 21 34036 P
08/31-01 73 21  4 56 59   W 12 18 3 2   W 12  1791   W 23 35345 P
08/31-02 73 20  4 55 61   W 12 18 3 2   W 14  1719   W 24 36444 P
08/31-03 73 18  4 54 64   W 12 18 3 2   W 15  1647   W 26 37331 P
08/31-04 73 17  3 53 66   W 12 18 3 2 WNW 12  1638   W 23 32927 P
08/31-05 75 21  4 52 69   W 12 18 3 2 WNW  8  1629   W 20 28027 P
08/31-06 77 21  4 52 69   W 12 18 3 2  NW  6  1619   W 16 23180 P
08/31-07 77 24  5 53 66   W 10 16 3 2 WNW  3  2630   W 13 29091 P
08/31-08 77 26  6 54 61   W  9 14 3 3 WSW  2  3641   W  9 28424 P
08/31-09 77 28  8 56 57   W  8 13 3 3  SW  2  4652   W  6 21179 P
08/31-10 77 31 10 60 49 WSW  8 13 3 3 WSW  5  6239   W  6 30924 P
08/31-11 77 33 12 63 43 SSW  8 13 2 3 WSW  7  7826  SW  6 41951  F
08/31-12 86 36 14 65 40   S  8 13 2 3 WSW 10  9413  SW  7 54260  F
08/31-13 86 39 17 66 38   S  8 14 2 3 WSW 12  9272  SW  7 60002   G
08/31-14 86 42 19 66 40 SSE  9 15 2 3  SW 13  9130 SSW  8 65544   G
08/31-15 86 45 22 65 43 SSE  9 15 2 3  SW 13  8989 SSW  9 70886   G
08/31-16 86 42 19 64 46   S  8 13 2 3  SW 12  8516 SSW  9 63906   G
08/31-17 86 35 13 63 48   S  7  7 2 3  SW 10  8043   S  8 57286  F
08/31-18 80 32 11 62 50 SSW  6  6 2 4  SW  9  7569   S  8 51028  F
08/31-19 80 32 11 59 55 SSW  6  6 2 4  SW 10  6233 SSW  7 40034  F
08/31-20 80 32 11 57 58 SSW  7  7 2 4 WSW 12  4897 SSW  7 29892 P
08/31-21 80 32 11 55 61 SSW  7  7 2 4   W 12  3561  SW  7 20602 P
08/31-22 80 32 11 53 66 SSW  7  7 2 4   W 12  2919  SW  7 16900 P
08/31-23 80 32 11 52 69  SW  6  6 2 4   W 10  2277  SW  7 13192 P
09/01-00 50  8  2 51 71  SW  6  6 2 1 WNW 10  1635  SW  7  9479 P
09/01-01 50  8  2 51 69 WSW  6  6 2 1 WNW 12  1489 WSW  8  9813 P
09/01-02 50  8  2 50 68 WSW  7  7 2 1 WNW 14  1342   W  8  9915 P
09/01-03 50  8  2 49 68   W  7  7 2 1 WNW 15  1196   W  9  9784 P
09/01-04 50  8  2 48 70   W  7  7 2 1 WNW 16  1096   W 10  9573 P
09/01-05 50  8  2 47 73   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 16   997   W 10  9254 P
09/01-06 42  9  2 47 74   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 16   898   W 12  8825 P
09/01-07 42  9  2 48 71   W  8 14 3 1 WNW 15  1731 WNW 13 18349 P
09/01-08 42  9  2 51 64   W  8 14 3 1 WNW 15  2565 WNW 13 29152 P
09/01-09 42  9  2 55 55   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 14  3398 WNW 14 41236  F
09/01-10 42  9  2 59 47   W  7  7 3 1 WNW 14  5878   W 14 67630   G
09/01-11 42  9  2 64 39 WSW  7  7 3 1   W 14  8358   W 13 90911   G
09/01-12 66 26  6 67 34 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 14 10837   W 12111078    V
09/01-13 66 26  6 69 32 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 14 10995   W 13116378    V
09/01-14 66 26  6 69 32 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14 11153   W 13121785    V
09/01-15 66 26  6 68 33 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 15 11311 WSW 13127297    V
09/01-16 66 26  6 67 35 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 15 10724 WSW 13119798    V
09/01-17 66 26  6 66 37 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14 10137 WSW 13112396    V
09/01-18 65 26  6 65 38 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14  9550 WSW 13105092    V
09/01-19 65 26  6 63 41 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14  7837 WSW 12 82121   G
09/01-20 65 26  6 60 46 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 13  6124 WSW 12 60951   G
09/01-21 65 26  6 58 50 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 13  4411 WSW 10 41581  F
09/01-22 65 26  6 56 53 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 13  3511   W 12 35399 P
09/01-23 65 26  6 55 55 WSW  6  6 3 4 WSW 13  2611   W 13 28037 P
09/02-00 43  4  1 54 57 WSW  6  6 3 1 WSW 13  1711   W 13 19497 P
09/02-01 43  4  1 53 58 WSW  6  6 3 1 WSW 12  1535   W 15 19583 P
09/02-02 43  4  1 52 60 WSW  7  7 4 1 WSW 10  1360   W 16 19189 P
09/02-03 43  4  1 51 61 WSW  7  7 4 1 WSW 10  1184   W 17 18317 P
09/02-04 43  4  1 50 62   W  7  7 4 1 WSW  9  1113   W 18 17842 P
09/02-05 43  4  1 49 64   W  8 13 4 1 WSW  8  1042   W 20 17287 P
09/02-06 42  2  0 49 63   W  8 13 4 1 WSW  7   971   W 20 16654 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...BAKER...NWS BOULDER
REQUESTED BY...MIKE NATTRASS
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20150830.ESTES.01/BOU




000
FNUS75 KBOU 301800
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR ESTES CONE SAR...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1200 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1118 MDT ON AUGUST 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AT THIS TIME AND IN THE NEXT HOUR OF SO...SHOULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS FORMING IN
THE AREA. STORM WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. IN
ADDITION...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN 30
MINUTES. STORMS WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY. SO WATCH FOR ANY STORMS TO
YOUR WEST OR NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
COLORADO. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SEARCH AREA BY
MORNING BRINGING WITH IT MORE CLOUDS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1400...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300 UNTIL
                    1700...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........24%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH UNTIL
                    1500...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1300.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 10 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3 UNTIL
                    1700...THEN 4.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2300...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MAX HUMIDITY........69%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    WEST 8-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................15 PERCENT DECREASING TO 5 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    EVENING.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 2.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ESTES CONE SAR.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

08/30-11 40  0  0 67 32 WSW 16 25 3 1   W 13  8342   W 16120706    V
08/30-12 52  7  1 70 29   W 13 13 3 1   W 15 10120   W 14119751    V
08/30-13 59 13  3 72 26   W 10 10 3 2   W 13 10707   W 12107752    V
08/30-14 65 16  3 73 24 WSW  7  7 3 3   W 12 11293   W  9 93678   G
08/30-15 75 19  4 72 25 WSW  5  5 3 3   W  9 11880   W  8 77527   G
08/30-16 69 24  5 71 27 SSW  8  8 3 3   W  9 11314 WSW  8 77184   G
08/30-17 73 28  8 69 30  NW  2  2 3 4 WSW  9 10747  SW  8 76505   G
08/30-18 76 32 11 67 34   CALM  0 3 4 WSW  9 10181  SW  8 75490   G
08/30-19 78 35 13 64 38   CALM 14 3 4 WSW 10  7748 WSW 12 75213   G
08/30-20 81 35 13 61 42   W  3 13 3 4 WSW 12  5315 WSW 14 63451   G
08/30-21 82 35 13 59 47 WSW  8 13 3 3  SW 12  3085 WSW 15 40103  F
08/30-22 82 30  9 58 51 WSW  9 15 3 3 WSW 10  2677   W 17 39511 P
08/30-23 78 24  5 57 53   W 10 16 3 2 WSW 10  2270   W 20 37489 P
08/31-00 72 23  5 57 55   W 12 18 3 2 WSW  9  1863   W 21 34036 P
08/31-01 73 21  4 56 59   W 12 18 3 2   W 12  1791   W 23 35345 P
08/31-02 73 20  4 55 61   W 12 18 3 2   W 14  1719   W 24 36444 P
08/31-03 73 18  4 54 64   W 12 18 3 2   W 15  1647   W 26 37331 P
08/31-04 73 17  3 53 66   W 12 18 3 2 WNW 12  1638   W 23 32927 P
08/31-05 75 21  4 52 69   W 12 18 3 2 WNW  8  1629   W 20 28027 P
08/31-06 77 21  4 52 69   W 12 18 3 2  NW  6  1619   W 16 23180 P
08/31-07 77 24  5 53 66   W 10 16 3 2 WNW  3  2630   W 13 29091 P
08/31-08 77 26  6 54 61   W  9 14 3 3 WSW  2  3641   W  9 28424 P
08/31-09 77 28  8 56 57   W  8 13 3 3  SW  2  4652   W  6 21179 P
08/31-10 77 31 10 60 49 WSW  8 13 3 3 WSW  5  6239   W  6 30924 P
08/31-11 77 33 12 63 43 SSW  8 13 2 3 WSW  7  7826  SW  6 41951  F
08/31-12 86 36 14 65 40   S  8 13 2 3 WSW 10  9413  SW  7 54260  F
08/31-13 86 39 17 66 38   S  8 14 2 3 WSW 12  9272  SW  7 60002   G
08/31-14 86 42 19 66 40 SSE  9 15 2 3  SW 13  9130 SSW  8 65544   G
08/31-15 86 45 22 65 43 SSE  9 15 2 3  SW 13  8989 SSW  9 70886   G
08/31-16 86 42 19 64 46   S  8 13 2 3  SW 12  8516 SSW  9 63906   G
08/31-17 86 35 13 63 48   S  7  7 2 3  SW 10  8043   S  8 57286  F
08/31-18 80 32 11 62 50 SSW  6  6 2 4  SW  9  7569   S  8 51028  F
08/31-19 80 32 11 59 55 SSW  6  6 2 4  SW 10  6233 SSW  7 40034  F
08/31-20 80 32 11 57 58 SSW  7  7 2 4 WSW 12  4897 SSW  7 29892 P
08/31-21 80 32 11 55 61 SSW  7  7 2 4   W 12  3561  SW  7 20602 P
08/31-22 80 32 11 53 66 SSW  7  7 2 4   W 12  2919  SW  7 16900 P
08/31-23 80 32 11 52 69  SW  6  6 2 4   W 10  2277  SW  7 13192 P
09/01-00 50  8  2 51 71  SW  6  6 2 1 WNW 10  1635  SW  7  9479 P
09/01-01 50  8  2 51 69 WSW  6  6 2 1 WNW 12  1489 WSW  8  9813 P
09/01-02 50  8  2 50 68 WSW  7  7 2 1 WNW 14  1342   W  8  9915 P
09/01-03 50  8  2 49 68   W  7  7 2 1 WNW 15  1196   W  9  9784 P
09/01-04 50  8  2 48 70   W  7  7 2 1 WNW 16  1096   W 10  9573 P
09/01-05 50  8  2 47 73   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 16   997   W 10  9254 P
09/01-06 42  9  2 47 74   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 16   898   W 12  8825 P
09/01-07 42  9  2 48 71   W  8 14 3 1 WNW 15  1731 WNW 13 18349 P
09/01-08 42  9  2 51 64   W  8 14 3 1 WNW 15  2565 WNW 13 29152 P
09/01-09 42  9  2 55 55   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 14  3398 WNW 14 41236  F
09/01-10 42  9  2 59 47   W  7  7 3 1 WNW 14  5878   W 14 67630   G
09/01-11 42  9  2 64 39 WSW  7  7 3 1   W 14  8358   W 13 90911   G
09/01-12 66 26  6 67 34 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 14 10837   W 12111078    V
09/01-13 66 26  6 69 32 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 14 10995   W 13116378    V
09/01-14 66 26  6 69 32 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14 11153   W 13121785    V
09/01-15 66 26  6 68 33 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 15 11311 WSW 13127297    V
09/01-16 66 26  6 67 35 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 15 10724 WSW 13119798    V
09/01-17 66 26  6 66 37 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14 10137 WSW 13112396    V
09/01-18 65 26  6 65 38 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14  9550 WSW 13105092    V
09/01-19 65 26  6 63 41 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14  7837 WSW 12 82121   G
09/01-20 65 26  6 60 46 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 13  6124 WSW 12 60951   G
09/01-21 65 26  6 58 50 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 13  4411 WSW 10 41581  F
09/01-22 65 26  6 56 53 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 13  3511   W 12 35399 P
09/01-23 65 26  6 55 55 WSW  6  6 3 4 WSW 13  2611   W 13 28037 P
09/02-00 43  4  1 54 57 WSW  6  6 3 1 WSW 13  1711   W 13 19497 P
09/02-01 43  4  1 53 58 WSW  6  6 3 1 WSW 12  1535   W 15 19583 P
09/02-02 43  4  1 52 60 WSW  7  7 4 1 WSW 10  1360   W 16 19189 P
09/02-03 43  4  1 51 61 WSW  7  7 4 1 WSW 10  1184   W 17 18317 P
09/02-04 43  4  1 50 62   W  7  7 4 1 WSW  9  1113   W 18 17842 P
09/02-05 43  4  1 49 64   W  8 13 4 1 WSW  8  1042   W 20 17287 P
09/02-06 42  2  0 49 63   W  8 13 4 1 WSW  7   971   W 20 16654 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...BAKER...NWS BOULDER
REQUESTED BY...MIKE NATTRASS
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20150830.ESTES.01/BOU





000
FNUS75 KBOU 301800
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR ESTES CONE SAR...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1200 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1118 MDT ON AUGUST 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AT THIS TIME AND IN THE NEXT HOUR OF SO...SHOULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS FORMING IN
THE AREA. STORM WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. IN
ADDITION...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN 30
MINUTES. STORMS WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY. SO WATCH FOR ANY STORMS TO
YOUR WEST OR NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
COLORADO. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SEARCH AREA BY
MORNING BRINGING WITH IT MORE CLOUDS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1400...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300 UNTIL
                    1700...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........24%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH UNTIL
                    1500...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1300.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 10 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3 UNTIL
                    1700...THEN 4.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2300...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MAX HUMIDITY........69%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    WEST 8-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................15 PERCENT DECREASING TO 5 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    EVENING.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 2.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ESTES CONE SAR.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

08/30-11 40  0  0 67 32 WSW 16 25 3 1   W 13  8342   W 16120706    V
08/30-12 52  7  1 70 29   W 13 13 3 1   W 15 10120   W 14119751    V
08/30-13 59 13  3 72 26   W 10 10 3 2   W 13 10707   W 12107752    V
08/30-14 65 16  3 73 24 WSW  7  7 3 3   W 12 11293   W  9 93678   G
08/30-15 75 19  4 72 25 WSW  5  5 3 3   W  9 11880   W  8 77527   G
08/30-16 69 24  5 71 27 SSW  8  8 3 3   W  9 11314 WSW  8 77184   G
08/30-17 73 28  8 69 30  NW  2  2 3 4 WSW  9 10747  SW  8 76505   G
08/30-18 76 32 11 67 34   CALM  0 3 4 WSW  9 10181  SW  8 75490   G
08/30-19 78 35 13 64 38   CALM 14 3 4 WSW 10  7748 WSW 12 75213   G
08/30-20 81 35 13 61 42   W  3 13 3 4 WSW 12  5315 WSW 14 63451   G
08/30-21 82 35 13 59 47 WSW  8 13 3 3  SW 12  3085 WSW 15 40103  F
08/30-22 82 30  9 58 51 WSW  9 15 3 3 WSW 10  2677   W 17 39511 P
08/30-23 78 24  5 57 53   W 10 16 3 2 WSW 10  2270   W 20 37489 P
08/31-00 72 23  5 57 55   W 12 18 3 2 WSW  9  1863   W 21 34036 P
08/31-01 73 21  4 56 59   W 12 18 3 2   W 12  1791   W 23 35345 P
08/31-02 73 20  4 55 61   W 12 18 3 2   W 14  1719   W 24 36444 P
08/31-03 73 18  4 54 64   W 12 18 3 2   W 15  1647   W 26 37331 P
08/31-04 73 17  3 53 66   W 12 18 3 2 WNW 12  1638   W 23 32927 P
08/31-05 75 21  4 52 69   W 12 18 3 2 WNW  8  1629   W 20 28027 P
08/31-06 77 21  4 52 69   W 12 18 3 2  NW  6  1619   W 16 23180 P
08/31-07 77 24  5 53 66   W 10 16 3 2 WNW  3  2630   W 13 29091 P
08/31-08 77 26  6 54 61   W  9 14 3 3 WSW  2  3641   W  9 28424 P
08/31-09 77 28  8 56 57   W  8 13 3 3  SW  2  4652   W  6 21179 P
08/31-10 77 31 10 60 49 WSW  8 13 3 3 WSW  5  6239   W  6 30924 P
08/31-11 77 33 12 63 43 SSW  8 13 2 3 WSW  7  7826  SW  6 41951  F
08/31-12 86 36 14 65 40   S  8 13 2 3 WSW 10  9413  SW  7 54260  F
08/31-13 86 39 17 66 38   S  8 14 2 3 WSW 12  9272  SW  7 60002   G
08/31-14 86 42 19 66 40 SSE  9 15 2 3  SW 13  9130 SSW  8 65544   G
08/31-15 86 45 22 65 43 SSE  9 15 2 3  SW 13  8989 SSW  9 70886   G
08/31-16 86 42 19 64 46   S  8 13 2 3  SW 12  8516 SSW  9 63906   G
08/31-17 86 35 13 63 48   S  7  7 2 3  SW 10  8043   S  8 57286  F
08/31-18 80 32 11 62 50 SSW  6  6 2 4  SW  9  7569   S  8 51028  F
08/31-19 80 32 11 59 55 SSW  6  6 2 4  SW 10  6233 SSW  7 40034  F
08/31-20 80 32 11 57 58 SSW  7  7 2 4 WSW 12  4897 SSW  7 29892 P
08/31-21 80 32 11 55 61 SSW  7  7 2 4   W 12  3561  SW  7 20602 P
08/31-22 80 32 11 53 66 SSW  7  7 2 4   W 12  2919  SW  7 16900 P
08/31-23 80 32 11 52 69  SW  6  6 2 4   W 10  2277  SW  7 13192 P
09/01-00 50  8  2 51 71  SW  6  6 2 1 WNW 10  1635  SW  7  9479 P
09/01-01 50  8  2 51 69 WSW  6  6 2 1 WNW 12  1489 WSW  8  9813 P
09/01-02 50  8  2 50 68 WSW  7  7 2 1 WNW 14  1342   W  8  9915 P
09/01-03 50  8  2 49 68   W  7  7 2 1 WNW 15  1196   W  9  9784 P
09/01-04 50  8  2 48 70   W  7  7 2 1 WNW 16  1096   W 10  9573 P
09/01-05 50  8  2 47 73   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 16   997   W 10  9254 P
09/01-06 42  9  2 47 74   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 16   898   W 12  8825 P
09/01-07 42  9  2 48 71   W  8 14 3 1 WNW 15  1731 WNW 13 18349 P
09/01-08 42  9  2 51 64   W  8 14 3 1 WNW 15  2565 WNW 13 29152 P
09/01-09 42  9  2 55 55   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 14  3398 WNW 14 41236  F
09/01-10 42  9  2 59 47   W  7  7 3 1 WNW 14  5878   W 14 67630   G
09/01-11 42  9  2 64 39 WSW  7  7 3 1   W 14  8358   W 13 90911   G
09/01-12 66 26  6 67 34 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 14 10837   W 12111078    V
09/01-13 66 26  6 69 32 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 14 10995   W 13116378    V
09/01-14 66 26  6 69 32 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14 11153   W 13121785    V
09/01-15 66 26  6 68 33 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 15 11311 WSW 13127297    V
09/01-16 66 26  6 67 35 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 15 10724 WSW 13119798    V
09/01-17 66 26  6 66 37 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14 10137 WSW 13112396    V
09/01-18 65 26  6 65 38 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14  9550 WSW 13105092    V
09/01-19 65 26  6 63 41 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14  7837 WSW 12 82121   G
09/01-20 65 26  6 60 46 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 13  6124 WSW 12 60951   G
09/01-21 65 26  6 58 50 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 13  4411 WSW 10 41581  F
09/01-22 65 26  6 56 53 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 13  3511   W 12 35399 P
09/01-23 65 26  6 55 55 WSW  6  6 3 4 WSW 13  2611   W 13 28037 P
09/02-00 43  4  1 54 57 WSW  6  6 3 1 WSW 13  1711   W 13 19497 P
09/02-01 43  4  1 53 58 WSW  6  6 3 1 WSW 12  1535   W 15 19583 P
09/02-02 43  4  1 52 60 WSW  7  7 4 1 WSW 10  1360   W 16 19189 P
09/02-03 43  4  1 51 61 WSW  7  7 4 1 WSW 10  1184   W 17 18317 P
09/02-04 43  4  1 50 62   W  7  7 4 1 WSW  9  1113   W 18 17842 P
09/02-05 43  4  1 49 64   W  8 13 4 1 WSW  8  1042   W 20 17287 P
09/02-06 42  2  0 49 63   W  8 13 4 1 WSW  7   971   W 20 16654 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...BAKER...NWS BOULDER
REQUESTED BY...MIKE NATTRASS
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20150830.ESTES.01/BOU




000
FNUS75 KBOU 301800
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR ESTES CONE SAR...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1200 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1118 MDT ON AUGUST 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WELL UNDERWAY OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AT THIS TIME AND IN THE NEXT HOUR OF SO...SHOULD
SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS FORMING IN
THE AREA. STORM WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. IN
ADDITION...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN 30
MINUTES. STORMS WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY. SO WATCH FOR ANY STORMS TO
YOUR WEST OR NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
COLORADO. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SEARCH AREA BY
MORNING BRINGING WITH IT MORE CLOUDS...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1400...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1300 UNTIL
                    1700...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........24%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH UNTIL
                    1500...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1300.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 10 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3 UNTIL
                    1700...THEN 4.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2300...THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MAX HUMIDITY........69%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    WEST 8-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................15 PERCENT DECREASING TO 5 PERCENT LATE IN THE
                    EVENING.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 2.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ESTES CONE SAR.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

08/30-11 40  0  0 67 32 WSW 16 25 3 1   W 13  8342   W 16120706    V
08/30-12 52  7  1 70 29   W 13 13 3 1   W 15 10120   W 14119751    V
08/30-13 59 13  3 72 26   W 10 10 3 2   W 13 10707   W 12107752    V
08/30-14 65 16  3 73 24 WSW  7  7 3 3   W 12 11293   W  9 93678   G
08/30-15 75 19  4 72 25 WSW  5  5 3 3   W  9 11880   W  8 77527   G
08/30-16 69 24  5 71 27 SSW  8  8 3 3   W  9 11314 WSW  8 77184   G
08/30-17 73 28  8 69 30  NW  2  2 3 4 WSW  9 10747  SW  8 76505   G
08/30-18 76 32 11 67 34   CALM  0 3 4 WSW  9 10181  SW  8 75490   G
08/30-19 78 35 13 64 38   CALM 14 3 4 WSW 10  7748 WSW 12 75213   G
08/30-20 81 35 13 61 42   W  3 13 3 4 WSW 12  5315 WSW 14 63451   G
08/30-21 82 35 13 59 47 WSW  8 13 3 3  SW 12  3085 WSW 15 40103  F
08/30-22 82 30  9 58 51 WSW  9 15 3 3 WSW 10  2677   W 17 39511 P
08/30-23 78 24  5 57 53   W 10 16 3 2 WSW 10  2270   W 20 37489 P
08/31-00 72 23  5 57 55   W 12 18 3 2 WSW  9  1863   W 21 34036 P
08/31-01 73 21  4 56 59   W 12 18 3 2   W 12  1791   W 23 35345 P
08/31-02 73 20  4 55 61   W 12 18 3 2   W 14  1719   W 24 36444 P
08/31-03 73 18  4 54 64   W 12 18 3 2   W 15  1647   W 26 37331 P
08/31-04 73 17  3 53 66   W 12 18 3 2 WNW 12  1638   W 23 32927 P
08/31-05 75 21  4 52 69   W 12 18 3 2 WNW  8  1629   W 20 28027 P
08/31-06 77 21  4 52 69   W 12 18 3 2  NW  6  1619   W 16 23180 P
08/31-07 77 24  5 53 66   W 10 16 3 2 WNW  3  2630   W 13 29091 P
08/31-08 77 26  6 54 61   W  9 14 3 3 WSW  2  3641   W  9 28424 P
08/31-09 77 28  8 56 57   W  8 13 3 3  SW  2  4652   W  6 21179 P
08/31-10 77 31 10 60 49 WSW  8 13 3 3 WSW  5  6239   W  6 30924 P
08/31-11 77 33 12 63 43 SSW  8 13 2 3 WSW  7  7826  SW  6 41951  F
08/31-12 86 36 14 65 40   S  8 13 2 3 WSW 10  9413  SW  7 54260  F
08/31-13 86 39 17 66 38   S  8 14 2 3 WSW 12  9272  SW  7 60002   G
08/31-14 86 42 19 66 40 SSE  9 15 2 3  SW 13  9130 SSW  8 65544   G
08/31-15 86 45 22 65 43 SSE  9 15 2 3  SW 13  8989 SSW  9 70886   G
08/31-16 86 42 19 64 46   S  8 13 2 3  SW 12  8516 SSW  9 63906   G
08/31-17 86 35 13 63 48   S  7  7 2 3  SW 10  8043   S  8 57286  F
08/31-18 80 32 11 62 50 SSW  6  6 2 4  SW  9  7569   S  8 51028  F
08/31-19 80 32 11 59 55 SSW  6  6 2 4  SW 10  6233 SSW  7 40034  F
08/31-20 80 32 11 57 58 SSW  7  7 2 4 WSW 12  4897 SSW  7 29892 P
08/31-21 80 32 11 55 61 SSW  7  7 2 4   W 12  3561  SW  7 20602 P
08/31-22 80 32 11 53 66 SSW  7  7 2 4   W 12  2919  SW  7 16900 P
08/31-23 80 32 11 52 69  SW  6  6 2 4   W 10  2277  SW  7 13192 P
09/01-00 50  8  2 51 71  SW  6  6 2 1 WNW 10  1635  SW  7  9479 P
09/01-01 50  8  2 51 69 WSW  6  6 2 1 WNW 12  1489 WSW  8  9813 P
09/01-02 50  8  2 50 68 WSW  7  7 2 1 WNW 14  1342   W  8  9915 P
09/01-03 50  8  2 49 68   W  7  7 2 1 WNW 15  1196   W  9  9784 P
09/01-04 50  8  2 48 70   W  7  7 2 1 WNW 16  1096   W 10  9573 P
09/01-05 50  8  2 47 73   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 16   997   W 10  9254 P
09/01-06 42  9  2 47 74   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 16   898   W 12  8825 P
09/01-07 42  9  2 48 71   W  8 14 3 1 WNW 15  1731 WNW 13 18349 P
09/01-08 42  9  2 51 64   W  8 14 3 1 WNW 15  2565 WNW 13 29152 P
09/01-09 42  9  2 55 55   W  8 13 3 1 WNW 14  3398 WNW 14 41236  F
09/01-10 42  9  2 59 47   W  7  7 3 1 WNW 14  5878   W 14 67630   G
09/01-11 42  9  2 64 39 WSW  7  7 3 1   W 14  8358   W 13 90911   G
09/01-12 66 26  6 67 34 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 14 10837   W 12111078    V
09/01-13 66 26  6 69 32 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 14 10995   W 13116378    V
09/01-14 66 26  6 69 32 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14 11153   W 13121785    V
09/01-15 66 26  6 68 33 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 15 11311 WSW 13127297    V
09/01-16 66 26  6 67 35 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 15 10724 WSW 13119798    V
09/01-17 66 26  6 66 37 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14 10137 WSW 13112396    V
09/01-18 65 26  6 65 38 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14  9550 WSW 13105092    V
09/01-19 65 26  6 63 41 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 14  7837 WSW 12 82121   G
09/01-20 65 26  6 60 46 WSW  7  7 3 4   W 13  6124 WSW 12 60951   G
09/01-21 65 26  6 58 50 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 13  4411 WSW 10 41581  F
09/01-22 65 26  6 56 53 WSW  6  6 3 4   W 13  3511   W 12 35399 P
09/01-23 65 26  6 55 55 WSW  6  6 3 4 WSW 13  2611   W 13 28037 P
09/02-00 43  4  1 54 57 WSW  6  6 3 1 WSW 13  1711   W 13 19497 P
09/02-01 43  4  1 53 58 WSW  6  6 3 1 WSW 12  1535   W 15 19583 P
09/02-02 43  4  1 52 60 WSW  7  7 4 1 WSW 10  1360   W 16 19189 P
09/02-03 43  4  1 51 61 WSW  7  7 4 1 WSW 10  1184   W 17 18317 P
09/02-04 43  4  1 50 62   W  7  7 4 1 WSW  9  1113   W 18 17842 P
09/02-05 43  4  1 49 64   W  8 13 4 1 WSW  8  1042   W 20 17287 P
09/02-06 42  2  0 49 63   W  8 13 4 1 WSW  7   971   W 20 16654 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...BAKER...NWS BOULDER
REQUESTED BY...MIKE NATTRASS
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20150830.ESTES.01/BOU





000
FNUS75 KBOU 292112
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR CONQUEROR FIRE...CLEAR CREEK COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
311 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1459 MDT ON AUGUST 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...A BIT MORE NUMEROUS FROM 1700 TO 1900.
EXPECT ONLY BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH WITH THE SHOWERS.
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(60-65%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 1700...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-62.
MIN HUMIDITY........42%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-12 MPH AND GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 1600...THEN 4.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500-8400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(60-65%) UNTIL 2000...THEN PARTLY
                    CLOUDY(35-45%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42.
MAX HUMIDITY........80%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9-13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2300.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2200...THEN 2 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900-6900 FT AGL UNTIL 2100. 1900-2900 FT AGL
                    AFTER 2300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2300...THEN POOR.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1100...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1100 UNTIL
                    1200...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MIN HUMIDITY........49%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8-12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE
                    MORNING THEN 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1100.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 25 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 3 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 7800-8800 FT AGL
                    AFTER 1200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900. GOOD AFTER 1000.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR CONQUEROR FIRE.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

08/29-15 60 21  4 56 45  SW  7  7 2 6 SSW  7  8380 SSW  6 44345  F
08/29-16 62 26  6 56 46  SW  8 13 2 6  SW  8  7949  SW  7 46925  F
08/29-17 63 26  6 56 48  SW  9 15 2 6 WSW  9  7518 WSW  8 48977  F
08/29-18 65 22  4 55 51  SW 10 16 2 6   W  9  7086 WSW  8 50502  F
08/29-19 60 22  4 53 57  SW 10 17 2 6 WSW  9  6414 WSW  9 50045  F
08/29-20 54 19  4 51 64 WSW 10 16 2 6 WSW 10  5742 WSW  9 48679  F
08/29-21 49 17  3 49 71 WSW 10 16 2 6 WSW 10  5069 WSW 10 46405  F
08/29-22 40 14  3 47 76 WSW 12 18 2 2 WSW 10  4195 WSW 12 40390  F
08/29-23 32  7  1 46 76 WSW 13 21 2 1   W 12  3321   W 12 33546 P
08/30-00 24  1  0 45 76 WSW 14 22 2 1   W 12  2446   W 13 25873 P
08/30-01 21  1  0 45 75 WSW 15 23 2 1   W 13  2284   W 14 26488 P
08/30-02 21  0  0 44 77 WSW 15 24 2 1 WSW 14  2122   W 15 26772 P
08/30-03 21  0  0 43 79 WSW 15 24 2 1 WSW 14  1959 WSW 16 26723 P
08/30-04 21  0  0 43 78 WSW 15 23 2 1 WSW 12  1825   W 16 25327 P
08/30-05 21  0  0 42 80 WSW 14 23 2 1 WSW  9  1691   W 16 23261 P
08/30-06 40  1  0 42 79 WSW 14 22 2 1 WSW  7  1557   W 16 21227 P
08/30-07 40  2  0 43 76 WSW 14 22 2 1 WSW  6  2143   W 15 28581 P
08/30-08 44  4  1 45 70   W 14 23 2 1  SW  6  2729   W 15 35587 P
08/30-09 49  5  1 47 65   W 14 22 2 1 SSW  5  3316   W 15 42244  F
08/30-10 57  6  1 51 57   W 13 20 2 1  SW  7  4858   W 13 55359  F
08/30-11 66 16  3 54 51   W 10 17 2 3 WSW  8  6400   W 12 64323   G
08/30-12 74 27  7 56 49   W  9 15 2 4 WSW  9  7943   W 10 69136   G
08/30-13 74 37 15 57 49   W  9 15 2 4   W  8  8418   W  9 67102   G
08/30-14 74 47 23 57 51   W 10 17 2 4   W  7  8893 WSW  8 64372   G
08/30-15 74 47 23 56 55   W 12 18 2 4   W  6  9367 WSW  8 60945   G
08/30-16 74 47 23 55 59   W 12 18 2 4   W  8  8327   W  9 64913   G
08/30-17 74 47 23 54 64   W 12 17 2 4   W 10  7287   W 10 66197   G
08/30-18 84 42 19 54 52   W  8 14 2 4   W  8  7743   W  8 53783  F
08/30-19 84 42 19 51 61   W  8 13 2 4   W 12  6111   W  9 49554  F
08/30-20 84 42 19 49 67   W  8  8 2 4   W 15  4479   W 10 41530  F
08/30-21 84 42 19 48 71   W  8 13 2 4   W 18  2847   W 12 29709 P
08/30-22 84 42 19 47 73   W  9 16 2 4   W 21  2576   W 16 35397 P
08/30-23 84 42 19 46 75   W 12 20 3 4   W 24  2304   W 20 39288 P
08/31-00 77 23  5 46 73   W 14 23 3 3   W 26  2032   W 23 41381  F
08/31-01 77 23  5 46 73   W 16 26 3 3   W 23  2056   W 24 42368  F
08/31-02 77 23  5 46 73   W 17 29 3 3   W 20  2079   W 24 43367  F
08/31-03 77 23  5 45 76   W 18 29 3 3   W 17  2102   W 24 44377  F
08/31-04 77 23  5 45 76   W 18 29 3 3   W 14  1988   W 21 36671 P
08/31-05 77 23  5 44 79   W 17 26 3 3 WNW 12  1873 WNW 18 29576 P
08/31-06 77 25  5 44 79   W 15 25 3 4  NW  9  1758 WNW 15 23090 P
08/31-07 77 25  5 45 76   W 15 23 3 4 NNW  7  2612  NW 12 26459 P
08/31-08 77 25  5 46 73 WNW 14 22 2 4  NE  5  3466 NNW  8 24695 P
08/31-09 77 25  5 47 71 WNW 13 21 2 4   E  2  4321   N  5 17799 P
08/31-10 77 25  5 49 65   W 13 20 2 4 ESE  3  5598  NW  5 25017 P
08/31-11 77 25  5 51 61   W 12 18 2 4   S  3  6875 WSW  6 33126 P
08/31-12 85 49 25 52 59   W 10 17 2 4 SSW  5  8152  SW  6 42128  F
08/31-13 85 49 25 53 58   W  9 15 2 4  SW  6  7834  SW  7 44382  F
08/31-14 85 49 25 53 59 WSW  8 13 2 4 WSW  7  7517 WSW  7 46319  F
08/31-15 85 49 25 53 61 WSW  7  7 2 4 WSW  9  7199 WSW  8 47940  F
08/31-16 85 49 25 52 66 WSW  8  8 2 4   W 10  7018 WSW  9 54410  F
08/31-17 85 49 25 51 70 WSW  8 14 2 4   W 12  6837   W 10 60485   G
08/31-18 80 34 13 50 74   W  9 15 2 4   W 13  6656   W 12 66164   G
08/31-19 80 34 13 49 77   W  9 15 2 4 WNW 13  5886   W 12 56932  F
08/31-20 80 34 13 47 81   W  9 15 2 4 WNW 14  5116 WNW 10 48114  F
08/31-21 80 34 13 46 83   W  9 15 2 4 WNW 14  4346 WNW 10 39709 P
08/31-22 80 34 13 45 84 WSW  9 15 2 4 WNW 13  3626 WNW 10 30941 P
08/31-23 80 34 13 44 85 WSW  9 15 2 4 WNW 12  2906   W  9 23042 P
09/01-00 57 13  3 43 86 WSW  9 15 2 2 WNW 10  2185   W  8 16011 P
09/01-01 57 13  3 42 87 WSW  9 15 2 2 WNW 12  2323   W  9 18583 P
09/01-02 57 13  3 41 88 WSW 10 16 3 2 WNW 12  2461   W 10 21340 P
09/01-03 57 13  3 40 89 WSW 10 16 3 2 WNW 12  2600 WNW 10 24283 P
09/01-04 57 13  3 39 91 WSW 10 17 3 2 WNW 10  2662 WNW 10 24352 P
09/01-05 57 13  3 39 90   W 12 18 3 2  NW  9  2725 WNW 10 24397 P
09/01-06 50 15  3 39 89   W 12 18 3 3  NW  8  2788 WNW 10 24417 P
09/01-07 50 15  3 40 84   W 12 18 3 3  NW  7  2893 WNW 10 25385 P
09/01-08 50 15  3 41 80   W 12 18 3 3  NW  7  2998 WNW 10 26357 P
09/01-09 50 15  3 44 70   W 12 18 3 3 WNW  6  3102 WNW 10 27332 P
09/01-10 50 15  3 47 63   W 12 18 3 3 WNW  7  5686   W  9 47564  F
09/01-11 50 15  3 50 56   W 12 18 3 3   W  7  8269   W  9 65496   G
09/01-12 68 33 12 53 50   W 12 18 3 4   W  8 10853   W  8 81129   G
09/01-13 68 33 12 54 49   W 12 18 3 4   W  8 11100   W  9 88355   G
09/01-14 68 33 12 54 50   W 12 17 3 4   W  8 11346   W  9 95820   G
09/01-15 68 33 12 54 51   W 10 17 3 4   W  9 11593   W 10103525    V
09/01-16 68 33 12 53 54   W 10 17 3 4   W  8 10640   W  9 87912   G
09/01-17 68 33 12 53 56   W 10 17 3 4   W  8  9688   W  9 73572   G
09/01-18 65 35 13 52 59   W 10 16 3 4 WNW  8  8736   W  8 60504   G

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...ENTREKIN
REQUESTED BY...CAPT SAFE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150829.CONQU.01/BOU




000
FNUS75 KBOU 292112
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR CONQUEROR FIRE...CLEAR CREEK COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
311 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1459 MDT ON AUGUST 29.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...A BIT MORE NUMEROUS FROM 1700 TO 1900.
EXPECT ONLY BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH WITH THE SHOWERS.
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(60-65%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 1700...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-62.
MIN HUMIDITY........42%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-12 MPH AND GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 1600...THEN 4.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500-8400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(60-65%) UNTIL 2000...THEN PARTLY
                    CLOUDY(35-45%). ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42.
MAX HUMIDITY........80%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9-13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2300.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2200...THEN 2 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900-6900 FT AGL UNTIL 2100. 1900-2900 FT AGL
                    AFTER 2300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2300...THEN POOR.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1100...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1100 UNTIL
                    1200...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MIN HUMIDITY........49%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8-12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE
                    MORNING THEN 20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1100.
CWR.................5 PERCENT INCREASING TO 25 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 3 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 7800-8800 FT AGL
                    AFTER 1200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900. GOOD AFTER 1000.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR CONQUEROR FIRE.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

08/29-15 60 21  4 56 45  SW  7  7 2 6 SSW  7  8380 SSW  6 44345  F
08/29-16 62 26  6 56 46  SW  8 13 2 6  SW  8  7949  SW  7 46925  F
08/29-17 63 26  6 56 48  SW  9 15 2 6 WSW  9  7518 WSW  8 48977  F
08/29-18 65 22  4 55 51  SW 10 16 2 6   W  9  7086 WSW  8 50502  F
08/29-19 60 22  4 53 57  SW 10 17 2 6 WSW  9  6414 WSW  9 50045  F
08/29-20 54 19  4 51 64 WSW 10 16 2 6 WSW 10  5742 WSW  9 48679  F
08/29-21 49 17  3 49 71 WSW 10 16 2 6 WSW 10  5069 WSW 10 46405  F
08/29-22 40 14  3 47 76 WSW 12 18 2 2 WSW 10  4195 WSW 12 40390  F
08/29-23 32  7  1 46 76 WSW 13 21 2 1   W 12  3321   W 12 33546 P
08/30-00 24  1  0 45 76 WSW 14 22 2 1   W 12  2446   W 13 25873 P
08/30-01 21  1  0 45 75 WSW 15 23 2 1   W 13  2284   W 14 26488 P
08/30-02 21  0  0 44 77 WSW 15 24 2 1 WSW 14  2122   W 15 26772 P
08/30-03 21  0  0 43 79 WSW 15 24 2 1 WSW 14  1959 WSW 16 26723 P
08/30-04 21  0  0 43 78 WSW 15 23 2 1 WSW 12  1825   W 16 25327 P
08/30-05 21  0  0 42 80 WSW 14 23 2 1 WSW  9  1691   W 16 23261 P
08/30-06 40  1  0 42 79 WSW 14 22 2 1 WSW  7  1557   W 16 21227 P
08/30-07 40  2  0 43 76 WSW 14 22 2 1 WSW  6  2143   W 15 28581 P
08/30-08 44  4  1 45 70   W 14 23 2 1  SW  6  2729   W 15 35587 P
08/30-09 49  5  1 47 65   W 14 22 2 1 SSW  5  3316   W 15 42244  F
08/30-10 57  6  1 51 57   W 13 20 2 1  SW  7  4858   W 13 55359  F
08/30-11 66 16  3 54 51   W 10 17 2 3 WSW  8  6400   W 12 64323   G
08/30-12 74 27  7 56 49   W  9 15 2 4 WSW  9  7943   W 10 69136   G
08/30-13 74 37 15 57 49   W  9 15 2 4   W  8  8418   W  9 67102   G
08/30-14 74 47 23 57 51   W 10 17 2 4   W  7  8893 WSW  8 64372   G
08/30-15 74 47 23 56 55   W 12 18 2 4   W  6  9367 WSW  8 60945   G
08/30-16 74 47 23 55 59   W 12 18 2 4   W  8  8327   W  9 64913   G
08/30-17 74 47 23 54 64   W 12 17 2 4   W 10  7287   W 10 66197   G
08/30-18 84 42 19 54 52   W  8 14 2 4   W  8  7743   W  8 53783  F
08/30-19 84 42 19 51 61   W  8 13 2 4   W 12  6111   W  9 49554  F
08/30-20 84 42 19 49 67   W  8  8 2 4   W 15  4479   W 10 41530  F
08/30-21 84 42 19 48 71   W  8 13 2 4   W 18  2847   W 12 29709 P
08/30-22 84 42 19 47 73   W  9 16 2 4   W 21  2576   W 16 35397 P
08/30-23 84 42 19 46 75   W 12 20 3 4   W 24  2304   W 20 39288 P
08/31-00 77 23  5 46 73   W 14 23 3 3   W 26  2032   W 23 41381  F
08/31-01 77 23  5 46 73   W 16 26 3 3   W 23  2056   W 24 42368  F
08/31-02 77 23  5 46 73   W 17 29 3 3   W 20  2079   W 24 43367  F
08/31-03 77 23  5 45 76   W 18 29 3 3   W 17  2102   W 24 44377  F
08/31-04 77 23  5 45 76   W 18 29 3 3   W 14  1988   W 21 36671 P
08/31-05 77 23  5 44 79   W 17 26 3 3 WNW 12  1873 WNW 18 29576 P
08/31-06 77 25  5 44 79   W 15 25 3 4  NW  9  1758 WNW 15 23090 P
08/31-07 77 25  5 45 76   W 15 23 3 4 NNW  7  2612  NW 12 26459 P
08/31-08 77 25  5 46 73 WNW 14 22 2 4  NE  5  3466 NNW  8 24695 P
08/31-09 77 25  5 47 71 WNW 13 21 2 4   E  2  4321   N  5 17799 P
08/31-10 77 25  5 49 65   W 13 20 2 4 ESE  3  5598  NW  5 25017 P
08/31-11 77 25  5 51 61   W 12 18 2 4   S  3  6875 WSW  6 33126 P
08/31-12 85 49 25 52 59   W 10 17 2 4 SSW  5  8152  SW  6 42128  F
08/31-13 85 49 25 53 58   W  9 15 2 4  SW  6  7834  SW  7 44382  F
08/31-14 85 49 25 53 59 WSW  8 13 2 4 WSW  7  7517 WSW  7 46319  F
08/31-15 85 49 25 53 61 WSW  7  7 2 4 WSW  9  7199 WSW  8 47940  F
08/31-16 85 49 25 52 66 WSW  8  8 2 4   W 10  7018 WSW  9 54410  F
08/31-17 85 49 25 51 70 WSW  8 14 2 4   W 12  6837   W 10 60485   G
08/31-18 80 34 13 50 74   W  9 15 2 4   W 13  6656   W 12 66164   G
08/31-19 80 34 13 49 77   W  9 15 2 4 WNW 13  5886   W 12 56932  F
08/31-20 80 34 13 47 81   W  9 15 2 4 WNW 14  5116 WNW 10 48114  F
08/31-21 80 34 13 46 83   W  9 15 2 4 WNW 14  4346 WNW 10 39709 P
08/31-22 80 34 13 45 84 WSW  9 15 2 4 WNW 13  3626 WNW 10 30941 P
08/31-23 80 34 13 44 85 WSW  9 15 2 4 WNW 12  2906   W  9 23042 P
09/01-00 57 13  3 43 86 WSW  9 15 2 2 WNW 10  2185   W  8 16011 P
09/01-01 57 13  3 42 87 WSW  9 15 2 2 WNW 12  2323   W  9 18583 P
09/01-02 57 13  3 41 88 WSW 10 16 3 2 WNW 12  2461   W 10 21340 P
09/01-03 57 13  3 40 89 WSW 10 16 3 2 WNW 12  2600 WNW 10 24283 P
09/01-04 57 13  3 39 91 WSW 10 17 3 2 WNW 10  2662 WNW 10 24352 P
09/01-05 57 13  3 39 90   W 12 18 3 2  NW  9  2725 WNW 10 24397 P
09/01-06 50 15  3 39 89   W 12 18 3 3  NW  8  2788 WNW 10 24417 P
09/01-07 50 15  3 40 84   W 12 18 3 3  NW  7  2893 WNW 10 25385 P
09/01-08 50 15  3 41 80   W 12 18 3 3  NW  7  2998 WNW 10 26357 P
09/01-09 50 15  3 44 70   W 12 18 3 3 WNW  6  3102 WNW 10 27332 P
09/01-10 50 15  3 47 63   W 12 18 3 3 WNW  7  5686   W  9 47564  F
09/01-11 50 15  3 50 56   W 12 18 3 3   W  7  8269   W  9 65496   G
09/01-12 68 33 12 53 50   W 12 18 3 4   W  8 10853   W  8 81129   G
09/01-13 68 33 12 54 49   W 12 18 3 4   W  8 11100   W  9 88355   G
09/01-14 68 33 12 54 50   W 12 17 3 4   W  8 11346   W  9 95820   G
09/01-15 68 33 12 54 51   W 10 17 3 4   W  9 11593   W 10103525    V
09/01-16 68 33 12 53 54   W 10 17 3 4   W  8 10640   W  9 87912   G
09/01-17 68 33 12 53 56   W 10 17 3 4   W  8  9688   W  9 73572   G
09/01-18 65 35 13 52 59   W 10 16 3 4 WNW  8  8736   W  8 60504   G

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...ENTREKIN
REQUESTED BY...CAPT SAFE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150829.CONQU.01/BOU





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