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000
FNUS75 KFGZ 070006
FWSFGZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR SCHWARTZ SAR...COCONINO COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
506 PM MST FRI MAY 6 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1639 MST ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING PERIODS OF COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER
WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FROM 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS
BRIEFLY DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 6600 FEET BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN GOING BACK UP TO AROUND 7500 FEET BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SNOW SHOWER MIX WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 36.
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
                    25 MPH.
LAL.................4.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MIN HUMIDITY........57 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
                    20 MPH...NEAR THE RIDGE TOPS WITH 5-10 MPH AND
                    GUSTS TO 15 IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR.
LAL.................3.

$$
FORECASTER...CLEMMONS
REQUESTED BY...AARON DICK
REASON FOR REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20160506.SCHWA.01/FGZ





000
FNUS75 KFGZ 061829
FWSFGZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR PRIETA PILES...PRESCOTT NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1129 AM MST FRI MAY 6 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1130 MST ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO ARIZONA TODAY WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER WEATHER.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
                    MPH.
LAL.................5.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MAX VENT RATE.......EXCELLENT (140500 KNOT-FT).
CLEARING INDEX......1405.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO SOUTH
                    20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
                    AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
LAL.................5.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
MIN VENT RATE.......POOR (4900 KNOT-FT).
CLEARING INDEX......49.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS DECREASING TO AROUND 5
                    KNOTS EARLY IN THE MORNING.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
                    MPH.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
MAX VENT RATE.......VERY GOOD (79900 KNOT-FT).
CLEARING INDEX......799.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...SCHWITZER
REQUESTED BY...BEC SANDLE
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160506.PRIET.01/FGZ





000
FNUS75 KFGZ 051620
FWSFGZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR PRIETA PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 AM MST THU MAY 5 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0925 MST ON MAY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 6 PM MST
THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 70 TO 74.
MIN HUMIDITY........11 TO 15 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING
                    SOUTH AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
                    AFTER 11 AM MST.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MAX VENT RATE.......EXCELLENT (203700 KNOT-FT).
CLEARING INDEX......2037.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
                    KNOTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.
MAX HUMIDITY........53 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40
                    MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIN VENT RATE.......POOR (1300 KNOT-FT).
CLEARING INDEX......13.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO
                    1100 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10
                    KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
                    THE MORNING...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 32 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
                    MPH.
LAL.................2.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MAX VENT RATE.......EXCELLENT (142200 KNOT-FT).
CLEARING INDEX......1422.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

$$
FORECASTER...JOHNDROW
REQUESTED BY...BARRY WALLACE
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160505.PRIET.01/FGZ





000
FNUS75 KFGZ 050015
FWSFGZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR PRIETA PILES...PRESCOTT NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
515 PM MST WED MAY 4 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1705 MST ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
800 PM BUT THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........10 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
                    25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 9300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MAX HUMIDITY........52 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
                    MPH UNTIL 800 PM...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
                    UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST
                    AT 2 TO 5 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO
                    300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 KNOTS DECREASING TO 5 TO 10
                    KNOTS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........21 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTHEAST WINDS 2 TO 5 MPH UNTIL 800 AM...
                    INCREASING/SHIFTING TO SOUTH AROUND 20 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO SOUTH
                    20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...MCCOLLUM
REQUESTED BY...ALANNA ENGLISH
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160504.PRIET.01/FGZ





000
FNUS75 KFGZ 050015
FWSFGZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR PRIETA PILES...PRESCOTT NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
515 PM MST WED MAY 4 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1705 MST ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
800 PM BUT THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........10 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
                    25 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 9300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MAX HUMIDITY........52 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
                    MPH UNTIL 800 PM...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
                    UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHEAST
                    AT 2 TO 5 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO
                    300 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 KNOTS DECREASING TO 5 TO 10
                    KNOTS IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.
MIN HUMIDITY........21 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTHEAST WINDS 2 TO 5 MPH UNTIL 800 AM...
                    INCREASING/SHIFTING TO SOUTH AROUND 20 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO SOUTH
                    20 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...MCCOLLUM
REQUESTED BY...ALANNA ENGLISH
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160504.PRIET.01/FGZ





000
FNUS75 KFGZ 041549
FWSFGZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR SPONSELLER...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
849 AM MST WED MAY 4 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0827 MST ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
NEAR CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE FIRE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........15 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
MAX VENT RATE.......EXCELLENT (113500 KNOT-FT).
CLEARING INDEX......1135.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.
MAX HUMIDITY........47 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
                    MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIN VENT RATE.......POOR (1500 KNOT-FT).
CLEARING INDEX......15.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO
                    200 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........16 PCT.
WINDS (20 FT).......SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
                    MPH.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
MAX VENT RATE.......EXCELLENT (275700 KNOT-FT).
CLEARING INDEX......2757.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 11100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 KNOTS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30
                    KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...SUK
REQUESTED BY...IAN VALLEY IC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160504.SPONS.01/FGZ





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