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000
FNUS73 KGID 281427
FWSGID

SPOT FORECAST FOR KIRWIN NE NW...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
927 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1500 CDT ON APRIL 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
OUTSIDE OF A CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS ARE FORECAST TO BE DRY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON...STARTING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 4 PM. ONCE PRECIPITATION
MOVES IN...IT DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS OR BE
HEAVY...WITH ANOTHER BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF BETTER CHANCES
THIS EVENING. EXPECTING INCREASING SKY COVER THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
BRING A GRADUAL CHANGE IN THE WINDS FROM NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING
TO NORTH NEAR MIDDAY...THEN TO THE NORTHEAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON TO CLOSER TO 10 MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID
50S...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE MID 50
PERCENT RANGE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57 NEAR 4 PM.
MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT NEAR 4 PM.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND GUSTY.
                    SWITCHING TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID AFTERNOON.
                    WINDS THIS MORNING 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTS NEAR 25
                    MPH. NEAR IGNITION TIME SPEEDS WILL BE
                    NEAR 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3100-4100 FT
                    AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8 TO 15 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........75     80
WEATHER COV.....       S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   RAIN
TSTM COV........
TEMP............55     56
RH..............59     59
20 FT WIND......N 5    N 5
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10
HAINES INDEX....2      2

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN AND SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-1400 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 22
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........83     82     85     85     96     100
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY PERIOD
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
TSTM COV........                            S CHC  S CHC
TEMP............55     51     48     47     45     44
RH..............64     77     86     86     93     96
20 FT WIND......NE 5   NE 6   NE 6   NE 6   NE 7   NE 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10     15     15     15     15     15
HAINES INDEX....2      2      2      2      2      2

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MIN HUMIDITY........76 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 18 TO 26 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........100    100    100    99     100    100
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
TEMP............43     44     46     48     50     50
RH..............96     90     83     79     77     78
20 FT WIND......NE 7   NE 8   NE 10  NE 11  NE 13  NE 13
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     20     25     30     30
HAINES INDEX....2      2      2      2      2      2

$$
FORECASTER...NWS
REQUESTED BY...ANDY SCHELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160428.KIRWI.01/GID





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