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000
FNUS75 KGJT 181421
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAULS CREEK RX...USFS/SAN JUAN NF/COLUMBINE RD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
821 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST TODAY AND A PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE FROM ODILE WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON
BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER SAN JUANS. CHANCES OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-27%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTH 2-7 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST 1-5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR EXCEPT EXCELLENT NEAR SHOWERS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2000 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-34%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 1-5 MPH SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 10 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...BRITTON QUINLAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140918.SAULS.01/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 181421
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAULS CREEK RX...USFS/SAN JUAN NF/COLUMBINE RD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
821 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST TODAY AND A PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE WEST COAST. MOISTURE FROM ODILE WILL
STAY TO OUR SOUTH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON
BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER SAN JUANS. CHANCES OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE JUST A BIT ON FRIDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........23-27%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTH 2-7 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 8900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST 1-5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR EXCEPT EXCELLENT NEAR SHOWERS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2000 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-34%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 1-5 MPH SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 10 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...BRITTON QUINLAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140918.SAULS.01/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 180410
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR 25 MESA RX...GMUG NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1010 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INCREASE MOISTURE AT
THE BURN SITE ON THURSDAY. SO RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD INCREASE A
FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS COMPARED WITH WEDNESDAY`S. THIS INCREASE WILL
BE MODEST AND MAINLY IN THE MID-LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL MOSTLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS MAY AT TIMES OVERPOWER THE GRADIENT
WINDS WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC GUSTS.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE 3-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING
                    UPSLOPE (NORTHEAST) 4-8 MPH. AFTER 14OO...
                    WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN BECOMING GOOD DURING
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO
                    9600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...THAD CHAVEZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140918.25MES.01/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 180410
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR 25 MESA RX...GMUG NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1010 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INCREASE MOISTURE AT
THE BURN SITE ON THURSDAY. SO RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD INCREASE A
FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS COMPARED WITH WEDNESDAY`S. THIS INCREASE WILL
BE MODEST AND MAINLY IN THE MID-LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL MOSTLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS MAY AT TIMES OVERPOWER THE GRADIENT
WINDS WITH STRONG AND ERRATIC GUSTS.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE 3-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING
                    UPSLOPE (NORTHEAST) 4-8 MPH. AFTER 14OO...
                    WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN BECOMING GOOD DURING
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO
                    9600 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...THAD CHAVEZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140918.25MES.01/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 171432
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAULS CREEK RX...USFS/SAN JUAN NF/COLUMBINE RD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
832 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0901 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO TODAY. THE RIDGE
WILL REMAINING DOMINATE AND KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL
STORM ODILE FARTHER SOUTH IN NEW MEXICO. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO TO INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE IN
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND SOUTH OF THE COLORADO BORDER. WINDS WILL
REMAIN WEAK UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DOMINATED WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING BUT
                    VARYING FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO TERRAIN
                    DOMINATED AFTER SUNDOWN. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1600 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DOMINATED WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 10
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...AS
REQUESTED BY...BRITTON QUINLAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140917.SAULS.01/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 171432
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAULS CREEK RX...USFS/SAN JUAN NF/COLUMBINE RD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
832 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0901 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO TODAY. THE RIDGE
WILL REMAINING DOMINATE AND KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL
STORM ODILE FARTHER SOUTH IN NEW MEXICO. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO TO INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE IN
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH AND SOUTH OF THE COLORADO BORDER. WINDS WILL
REMAIN WEAK UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DOMINATED WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING BUT
                    VARYING FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO TERRAIN
                    DOMINATED AFTER SUNDOWN. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1600 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-34%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DOMINATED WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST 10
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...AS
REQUESTED BY...BRITTON QUINLAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140917.SAULS.01/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 171323
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR FERRIS EAST...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
723 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0747 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO STARTING TODAY THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL
STAY FARTHER SOUTH IN NEW MEXICO BUT ENOUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO TO INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERN UTAH. WINDS
WILL REMAIN WEAK UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT DOMINATES THE
REGION.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...AS
REQUESTED BY...DAVE GRETTENBERG
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140917.FERRI.01/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 171323
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR FERRIS EAST...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
723 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0747 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO STARTING TODAY THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL
STAY FARTHER SOUTH IN NEW MEXICO BUT ENOUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN
COLORADO TO INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERN UTAH. WINDS
WILL REMAIN WEAK UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT DOMINATES THE
REGION.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8900 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...AS
REQUESTED BY...DAVE GRETTENBERG
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140917.FERRI.01/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 170333
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CABEZON RX...SOUTHERN UTE AGENCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
933 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO BLOCK THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE THAT HAS MOVED UP INTO
NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA. HOWEVER ENOUGH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL CREEP
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER TO RESULT IN A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BURN SITE. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 0-5 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    BECOMING WEST 3-6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL NOON...THEN FAIR (44000 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 MPH UNTIL NOON...THEN BECOMING WEST 5
                    MPH. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE UPPER PORTION
                    OF THE SMOKE PLUME MAY SHEAR OFF TO THE WEST
                    DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE 12500 FT MSL.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...HOWARD RICHARDS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140917.CABEZ.01/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 170333
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR CABEZON RX...SOUTHERN UTE AGENCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
933 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO BLOCK THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE THAT HAS MOVED UP INTO
NEW MEXICO AND ARIZONA. HOWEVER ENOUGH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL CREEP
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER TO RESULT IN A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BURN SITE. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 0-5 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    BECOMING WEST 3-6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL NOON...THEN FAIR (44000 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 MPH UNTIL NOON...THEN BECOMING WEST 5
                    MPH. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE UPPER PORTION
                    OF THE SMOKE PLUME MAY SHEAR OFF TO THE WEST
                    DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS ABOVE 12500 FT MSL.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...HOWARD RICHARDS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140917.CABEZ.01/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 170026
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR 25 MESA RX...GMUG NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
626 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILD OVER REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL UTAH/COLORADO
BORDER. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MOST FORECAST
PARAMETERS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER. TEMPERATURES MAY
DROP A DEGREE OR TWO AT MOST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS LOWER THAN ON TUESDAY.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE (0-3 MPH) UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING NORTHEAST 3-8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1030...THEN BECOMING GOOD IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9800 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....VARIABLE 3 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING
                    NORTHEAST 6 MPH...INCREASING TO 10 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...THAD CHAVEZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140917.25MES.01/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 170026
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR 25 MESA RX...GMUG NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
626 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILD OVER REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL UTAH/COLORADO
BORDER. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN MOST FORECAST
PARAMETERS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER. TEMPERATURES MAY
DROP A DEGREE OR TWO AT MOST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS LOWER THAN ON TUESDAY.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE (0-3 MPH) UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    BECOMING NORTHEAST 3-8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1030...THEN BECOMING GOOD IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9800 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....VARIABLE 3 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING
                    NORTHEAST 6 MPH...INCREASING TO 10 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...THAD CHAVEZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140917.25MES.01/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 162155
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR FERRIS EAST...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1525 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE BURN SITE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE MIXING HEIGHTS AND
SMOKE DISPERSAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AND
ALOFT...WITH DISPERSAL AT LEAST FAIR THROUGH NOON THEN LOW END GOOD
BY MAX HEATING TIME. LIKE TODAY BUILDUPS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BURN SO HAVE ISOLATED IN THE FORECAST. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
A THREAT...BUT ALSO STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW. IF A STORM DEVELOPS
NEARBY IT MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST TERRAIN WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 75 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING UPSLOPE
                    BY 1100. WINDS AFTER 1400...SOUTHWEST TO WEST
                    AT 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR BY 1100 THEN GOOD AFTER 1300.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 AFTER 1400.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7800 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 MPH THROUGH 1100 THEN WEST AT
                    12 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...DAVE GRETTENBERG
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140916.FERRI.01/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 162155
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR FERRIS EAST...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1525 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE BURN SITE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS WILL BE MIXING HEIGHTS AND
SMOKE DISPERSAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AND
ALOFT...WITH DISPERSAL AT LEAST FAIR THROUGH NOON THEN LOW END GOOD
BY MAX HEATING TIME. LIKE TODAY BUILDUPS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BURN SO HAVE ISOLATED IN THE FORECAST. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
A THREAT...BUT ALSO STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW. IF A STORM DEVELOPS
NEARBY IT MAY BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........70-75%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST TERRAIN WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 75 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING UPSLOPE
                    BY 1100. WINDS AFTER 1400...SOUTHWEST TO WEST
                    AT 6 TO 11 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR BY 1100 THEN GOOD AFTER 1300.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 AFTER 1400.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7800 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 MPH THROUGH 1100 THEN WEST AT
                    12 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...DAVE GRETTENBERG
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140916.FERRI.01/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 161453
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR ROAN RX...COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FIELD OFFICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
853 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LESS CLOUD COVER
TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL SNEAK
UNDER THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH OF WEST CENTRAL COLORADO WITH
MORE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN UNDER THE RIDGE AND SIMILAR EACH DAY.
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE WEAK THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN BECOMING NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........53-58%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO TERRAIN DRIVEN
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-29%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS 5-8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...AS
REQUESTED BY...JOSH GRAHAM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140917.ROANR.01/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 161453
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR ROAN RX...COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FIELD OFFICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
853 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LESS CLOUD COVER
TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE TOMORROW. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL SNEAK
UNDER THE RIDGE AND ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. CURRENT MODELS SHOW THE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH OF WEST CENTRAL COLORADO WITH
MORE LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN UNDER THE RIDGE AND SIMILAR EACH DAY.
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE WEAK THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN BECOMING NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........53-58%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO TERRAIN DRIVEN
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........24-29%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS 5-8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...AS
REQUESTED BY...JOSH GRAHAM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140917.ROANR.01/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 161401
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAULS CREEK RX...USFS/SAN JUAN NF/COLUMBINE RD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
801 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0814 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER MOISTURE SNEAKING UNDER THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
A THREAT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. THE BULK OF THE STORMS LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE
BURN SITE...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. GUSTY WINDS
HOWEVER WILL BE A THREAT FROM ANY STORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BURN SITE. TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS SHOULD DOMINATE OTHERWISE AND BE
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THROUGH 1300 THEN
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) WITH
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 80 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT TERRAIN WINDS AT 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH BY LATE MORNING. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD BY 1200.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 AFTER 1300.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 12200 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 MPH THROUGH 1200 THEN SOUTHWEST AT
                    12 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 50 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........68-73%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS BY SUNSET. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR IN THE EARLY THEN BECOMING POOR BY
                    SUNSET.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 THROUGH 1900 THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL AFTER
                    SUNSET.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 MPH THROUGH 1800 THEN TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 79 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
                    SOUTHWEST 4 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR BY 1200.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1...THE 2 AFTER 1300.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 11600 FT AGL AFTER 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...BRITTON QUINLAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140916.SAULS.01/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 161401
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SAULS CREEK RX...USFS/SAN JUAN NF/COLUMBINE RD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
801 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0814 MDT ON SEPTEMBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER MOISTURE SNEAKING UNDER THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
A THREAT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. THE BULK OF THE STORMS LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE
BURN SITE...BUT AN ISOLATED STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. GUSTY WINDS
HOWEVER WILL BE A THREAT FROM ANY STORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BURN SITE. TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS SHOULD DOMINATE OTHERWISE AND BE
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THROUGH 1300 THEN
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) WITH
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 80 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT TERRAIN WINDS AT 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 8 MPH BY LATE MORNING. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD BY 1200.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 AFTER 1300.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 12200 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 MPH THROUGH 1200 THEN SOUTHWEST AT
                    12 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 50 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........68-73%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS BY SUNSET. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR IN THE EARLY THEN BECOMING POOR BY
                    SUNSET.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 THROUGH 1900 THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL AFTER
                    SUNSET.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 MPH THROUGH 1800 THEN TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 79 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
                    SOUTHWEST 4 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR BY 1200.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1...THE 2 AFTER 1300.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 11600 FT AGL AFTER 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...BRITTON QUINLAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140916.SAULS.01/GJT





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