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000
FNUS75 KGJT 041451
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR TORCH...CO-SUA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
851 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0809 MDT ON JULY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY
WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE WE CAN
EXPECT A CONTINUED CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. ON
SUNDAY A DISTURBANCE BRUSHING WESTERN COLORADO...COMBINED WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.TODAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1100...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS.
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) BY 1500. A FEW
                    SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE UNTIL 1200...
                    THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    DEVELOPING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL NOON...THEN WEST 4-8 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 9800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTH 5 MPH LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
                    FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. THEN NUMEROUS
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL NOON...THEN WEST 4-8 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
LAL.................5.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...J MOORE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150704.TORCH.01/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 040343
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BERRY...UT-VLD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
943 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2040 MDT ON JULY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAIN OVER
EASTERN UTAH ON THE FOURTH. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BUILD
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THAT WILL MOVE OVER
NEARBY SLOPES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE TO THE EAST AT 5-10 MPH. STORMS WILL PRODUCE LIGHTNING...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY.

.4TH OF JULY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN CLOUDY
                    WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 3-8 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2...BECOMING 4 IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE WINDS 5-15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR EXCEPT GOOD NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 2.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
                    DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 2-7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...DIRK HUBER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150703.BERRY.01/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 040343
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BERRY...UT-VLD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
943 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2040 MDT ON JULY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAIN OVER
EASTERN UTAH ON THE FOURTH. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BUILD
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THAT WILL MOVE OVER
NEARBY SLOPES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE TO THE EAST AT 5-10 MPH. STORMS WILL PRODUCE LIGHTNING...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY.

.4TH OF JULY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN CLOUDY
                    WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 3-8 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2...BECOMING 4 IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE WINDS 5-15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR EXCEPT GOOD NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 2.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
                    DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 2-7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...DIRK HUBER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150703.BERRY.01/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 040343
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BERRY...UT-VLD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
943 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2040 MDT ON JULY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAIN OVER
EASTERN UTAH ON THE FOURTH. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BUILD
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THAT WILL MOVE OVER
NEARBY SLOPES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL
BE TO THE EAST AT 5-10 MPH. STORMS WILL PRODUCE LIGHTNING...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY.

.4TH OF JULY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN CLOUDY
                    WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 3-8 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2...BECOMING 4 IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE WINDS 5-15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR EXCEPT GOOD NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 2.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
                    DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 2-7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...DIRK HUBER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150703.BERRY.01/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 040205
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR VAIL 4TH OF JULY...VAIX
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
805 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 MDT ON JULY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAIN OVER
WESTERN COLORADO ON THE FOURTH. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BUILD
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
VAIL VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.
STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

.4TH OF JULY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER NOON...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 3-8 MPH INCREASING TO 5-15 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................2 AT NOON...BECOMING 3 AFTER 1500.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
                    UNTIL 9 PM...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-79%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH SHIFTING TO EAST 2-7 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 9 PM...THEN 2.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................2.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...MARK NOVAK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150704.VAIL4.01/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 040205
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR VAIL 4TH OF JULY...VAIX
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
805 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1400 MDT ON JULY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAIN OVER
WESTERN COLORADO ON THE FOURTH. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BUILD
THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE
VAIL VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.
STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

.4TH OF JULY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER NOON...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 3-8 MPH INCREASING TO 5-15 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................2 AT NOON...BECOMING 3 AFTER 1500.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
                    UNTIL 9 PM...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-79%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH SHIFTING TO EAST 2-7 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 9 PM...THEN 2.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................2.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...MARK NOVAK
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150704.VAIL4.01/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 031502
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR TORCH...CO-SUA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
902 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0817 MDT ON JULY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY (FOURTH
OF JULY HOLIDAY).  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGH COUNTRY NORTH OF THE WILDFIRE.  THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH
TOWARD THE WILDFIRE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 1300 AND 1500.
BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL OCCUR IF
THE THUNDERSTORM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...ABOUT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF OCCURRENCE.  THE AIR MASS STAYS UNSTABLE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
ON THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200. BEST CHANCE FOR
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 1300
                    AND 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. WIND SHIFT
                    BACK TO NORTHEAST IS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING
                    THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEM 1300 AND 1500.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (47500 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9500 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE EVENING...BECOMING ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-56 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (16500 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2500 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 MPH.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (52500 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...PAUL FRISBIE
REQUESTED BY...R  GUSTAFSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150703.TORCH.01/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 031018
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR TORCH...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
418 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2127 MDT ON JULY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH HEATING OF THE DAY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM
AFTER 1PM. AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE BEGINS SATURDAY ALLOWING MORE
STORM AND SHOWER COVERAGE WITH SOME STORMS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY
RAIN. BETTER CHANCES SATURDAY FOR STORMS AND SHOWERS TO AFFECT
BURN SITE. HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY BUT WILL DROP SOME DUE
TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER SATURDAY AND BEYOND.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1PM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 5 TO
                    10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (47600 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9400 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING. AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2400 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 MPH.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...TOM RENWICK
REQUESTED BY...S  HENNING
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150702.TORCH.03/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 031018
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR TORCH...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
418 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2127 MDT ON JULY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH HEATING OF THE DAY AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM
AFTER 1PM. AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE BEGINS SATURDAY ALLOWING MORE
STORM AND SHOWER COVERAGE WITH SOME STORMS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY
RAIN. BETTER CHANCES SATURDAY FOR STORMS AND SHOWERS TO AFFECT
BURN SITE. HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY BUT WILL DROP SOME DUE
TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER SATURDAY AND BEYOND.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1PM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 5 TO
                    10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (47600 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9400 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING. AND PERSISTING OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2400 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 MPH.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...TOM RENWICK
REQUESTED BY...S  HENNING
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150702.TORCH.03/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 031004
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BERRY...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
404 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1655 MDT ON JULY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH HEATING OF THE DAY CAUSING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM BY 3PM. AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE
BEGINS SATURDAY ALLOWING MORE STORM AND SHOWER COVERAGE WITH SOME
STORMS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN. BETTER CHANCES SATURDAY FOR
STORMS AND SHOWERS TO AFFECT BURN SITE. HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TODAY BUT WILL DROP SOME DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER SATURDAY AND
BEYOND.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-22%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 8 TO
                    10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........51-56%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 10 TO 12
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................4.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...TOM RENWICK
REQUESTED BY...MIKE BERTAGNOLLI
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150702.BERRY.02/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 031004
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BERRY...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
404 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1655 MDT ON JULY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH HEATING OF THE DAY CAUSING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM BY 3PM. AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE
BEGINS SATURDAY ALLOWING MORE STORM AND SHOWER COVERAGE WITH SOME
STORMS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN. BETTER CHANCES SATURDAY FOR
STORMS AND SHOWERS TO AFFECT BURN SITE. HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TODAY BUT WILL DROP SOME DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER SATURDAY AND
BEYOND.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-22%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 8 TO
                    10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........51-56%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 10 TO 12
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................4.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...TOM RENWICK
REQUESTED BY...MIKE BERTAGNOLLI
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150702.BERRY.02/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 030050
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR TORCH...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
650 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1823 MDT ON JULY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE GENERAL WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN UTAH. MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER
THIS RIDGE AND WILL AGAIN FUEL SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE FIRE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AND
NEARBY STORMS OR RAIN SHAFTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGHS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS TO SETTLE
NEAR 30 PERCENT DURING PEAK HEATING. CLOUD COVER AND OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL AFFECT THIS HOWEVER. TERRAIN DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING...SWITCHING TO UPSLOPE/SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THROUGH NOON THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........NEAR 30%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH MID
                    MORNING SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 12 MPH BY
                    1300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING GOOD BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 10300 FT AGL BY 1500.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 11 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...S  HENNING
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150702.TORCH.02/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 030050
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR TORCH...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
650 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1823 MDT ON JULY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE GENERAL WINDS ALOFT WILL BE NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN UTAH. MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER
THIS RIDGE AND WILL AGAIN FUEL SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE FIRE. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AND
NEARBY STORMS OR RAIN SHAFTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. EXPECT
SIMILAR HIGHS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS TO SETTLE
NEAR 30 PERCENT DURING PEAK HEATING. CLOUD COVER AND OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL AFFECT THIS HOWEVER. TERRAIN DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MORNING...SWITCHING TO UPSLOPE/SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) THROUGH NOON THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........NEAR 30%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH MID
                    MORNING SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 7 TO 12 MPH BY
                    1300. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING GOOD BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 10300 FT AGL BY 1500.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 11 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...S  HENNING
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150702.TORCH.02/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 021259
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR TORCH...CO-SUA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
659 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0600 MDT ON JULY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE
TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND EXPECT SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE WILL BE
BETWEEN 1300 TO 1500 THIS AFTERNOON.  ON FRIDAY...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
PERSIST WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WILDFIRE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH
                    AFTER 1200.  ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON FROM NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.
                    WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE WITH PASSING THUNDERSTORMS...
                    NORTHEAST 15-25 MPH AND GUSTY. MOST LIKELY
                    OCCURRENCE BETWEEN 1300 AND 1500.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1100...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 12600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (19300 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD
                    (72000-81100 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...PAUL FRISBIE
REQUESTED BY...R  GUSTAFSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150702.TORCH.01/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 021259
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR TORCH...CO-SUA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
659 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0600 MDT ON JULY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE
TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND EXPECT SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE WILL BE
BETWEEN 1300 TO 1500 THIS AFTERNOON.  ON FRIDAY...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
PERSIST WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WILDFIRE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH
                    AFTER 1200.  ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON FROM NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.
                    WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE WITH PASSING THUNDERSTORMS...
                    NORTHEAST 15-25 MPH AND GUSTY. MOST LIKELY
                    OCCURRENCE BETWEEN 1300 AND 1500.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1100...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 12600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (19300 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD
                    (72000-81100 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...PAUL FRISBIE
REQUESTED BY...R  GUSTAFSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150702.TORCH.01/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 021259
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR TORCH...CO-SUA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
659 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0600 MDT ON JULY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FIRING OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE
TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND EXPECT SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  MOST LIKELY OCCURRENCE WILL BE
BETWEEN 1300 TO 1500 THIS AFTERNOON.  ON FRIDAY...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
PERSIST WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WILDFIRE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........26-31%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH
                    AFTER 1200.  ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON FROM NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.
                    WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE WITH PASSING THUNDERSTORMS...
                    NORTHEAST 15-25 MPH AND GUSTY. MOST LIKELY
                    OCCURRENCE BETWEEN 1300 AND 1500.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 1100...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 12600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (19300 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......10100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD
                    (72000-81100 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...PAUL FRISBIE
REQUESTED BY...R  GUSTAFSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150702.TORCH.01/GJT





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