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000
FNUS75 KGJT 160405
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR EAST CABEZON...SOUTHERN UTE AGENCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1005 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON APRIL 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BURN SITE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A FAST MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WITH MAIN IMPACT BEING CLOUD COVER
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
PUSH ACROSS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE BURN SITE. CLOSER
TO THE BURN SITE...ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC AND GUSTY
WINDS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH...SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST BY 1100 AND INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH
                    BY 1300. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AFTER
                    1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (LESS THAN 10000 KNOT-FT) UNTIL 1000...
                    THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT BY 1400.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 10200 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 25 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-32 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........63-68%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
                    25 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO POOR (LESS THAN 10000 KNOT-FT)
                    BY 2200.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL BY 2200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 5 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    SOUTHWEST WINDS 3-6 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH
                    AFTER 1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (LESS THAN 10000 KNOT-FT) UNTIL 1000...
                    THEN BECOMING FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7700 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JEFF COLTON
REQUESTED BY...JESSE RAMIREZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140416.EASTC.01/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 152255
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BROCKOVER RX...DURANGO DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
455 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1625 MDT ON APRIL 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BURN SITE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A FAST MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WITH MAIN IMPACT BEING CLOUD COVER
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
PUSH ACROSS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE BURN SITE. CLOSER
TO THE BURN SITE...ANTICIPATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC AND GUSTY
WINDS.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....26-31 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........34-39%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 4-8 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                    2-5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO POOR (LESS THAN 10000 KNOT-FT) BY
                    2200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL BY 2200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%). ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE
                    HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF THE BURN SITE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-22%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH BY 1100...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AND INCREASING TO 4-8 MPH BY 1400. OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AFTER 1400. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (LESS THAN 10000 KNOT-FT) UNTIL 1000...
                    THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT BY 1400.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 9200 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND
                    INCREASING TO 24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
                    TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE BURN SITE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....24-29 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........66-71%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-5 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....DECREASING TO POOR (LESS THAN 10000 KNOT-FT)
                    BY 2200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL BY 2200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 5 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........18-23%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH BY 1100...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AND INCREASING TO 3-6 MPH BY 1400. OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH AFTER 1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (LESS THAN 10000 KNOT-FT) UNTIL 1000...
                    THEN BECOMING FAIR.
MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 6700 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 10 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
$$
FORECASTER...JEFF COLTON
REQUESTED BY...BETH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140415.BROCK.02/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 151651
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR EAST CABAZON...DURANGO DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1051 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1018 MDT ON APRIL 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THE INVERSION THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S BY MID AFTERNOON WILL
BRING VERY GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL...BUT ALSO INCREASE THE WINDS
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND THIS WILL LEAD
TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY WILL
BE SLOW TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT AND WILL AGAIN DROP TO NEAR 15
PERCENT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO
THE SAN JUANS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE LOW THIS WILL
GET TO THE FIRE SITE. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE HILLS...WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS A THREAT TO IMPACT THE FIRE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%) THROUGH 1300 THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 58 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........6-11%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO
                    11 TO 16 MPH NEAR 1300. GUSTS TO 25 MPH AFTER
                    1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR THROUGH 1200 THEN INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 MPH INCREASING TO 25 AFTER 1300.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 34 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........21-26%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH PRIOR TO SUNSET
                    BECOMING TERRAIN DRIVEN BY 2000.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD THROUGH SUNSET THEN DECREASING TO
                    POOR BY LATE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8600 FT AGL DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1000
                    FT AGL IN THE BY MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 MPH THROUGH SUNSET THEN BECOMING
                    TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH 1100 (50-60%)THEN
                    BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AFTER
                    1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 56 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-19%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN 8 MPH OR LESS THROUGH 1000 THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE MORNING 5 TO 8 MPH.
                    WINDS INCREASING TO 13 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR
                    25 MPH IN THE AFTER 1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 1000 THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL OR LESS THROUGH 1000 THEN INCREASING
                    TO 9800 FT AGL BY 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 25 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...BETH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20140415.EASTC.01/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 151126
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BROCKOVER RX...SAN JUAN NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
526 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 MDT ON APRIL 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SUN EXPECTED TODAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM AFFECTS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO. AS FAR AS THE BURN SITE IS CONCERNED...EXPECT
THE OCCASIONAL GUSTY WIND OF 20 MPH OR SO AFTER 12 PM. PLENTY OF
MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR VERY GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........7-12%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 10 TO 13 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
                    OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8500 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 20 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....26-31 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........33-38%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 13 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 MPH IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD DECREASING TO POOR EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 MPH DECREASING TO 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

$$
FORECASTER...TOM RENWICK
REQUESTED BY...FRED ELLIS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140415.BROCK.01/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 142247
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR EAST CABAZON...DURANGO DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
447 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1621 MDT ON APRIL 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FIRE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND WINDS...BUT PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS NORTH OF THE FIRE.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR AND COLD (0-10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....16-21 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........38-43%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 3-6 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH
                    UNTIL 2100. WINDS THEN BECOMING
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH BY 2300.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING POOR (LESS THAN 1000 KNOT-FT) BY 2300.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL BY 2300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 5 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-13%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 6-12 MPH
                    BY 1300. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AFTER
                    1500.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (LESS THAN 10000 KNOT-FT) UNTIL 1100...
                    THEN BECOMING BECOMING VERY GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7400 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 20 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........26-31%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 6-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH UNTIL
                    2100...THEN BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                    2-5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN BECOMING POOR (LESS
                    THAN 1000 KNOT-FT) BY 2300.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL BY 2300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16 MPH DECREASING TO 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-21%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND INCREASING TO 6-12 MPH
                    BY 1300. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AFTER 1400.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (LESS THAN 10000 KNOT-FT) UNTIL 1000...
                    THEN BECOMING EXCELLENT BY 1400.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 9100 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 MPH INCREASING TO 29 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.


$$
FORECASTER...JEFF COLTON
REQUESTED BY...BETH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20140414.EASTC.01/GJT





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