000
FNUS75 KGJT 190347
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR DISAPPOINTMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
947 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS...
LOW HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS...
DISCUSSION...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL SETTLE LATE THIS EVENING BUT STRENGTHEN AGAIN BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AS SHALLOW INVERSIONS MIX OUT. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AND WILL LAST THROUGH EVENING. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND
SHIFT WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY AFTER ABOUT 2100. LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY FOR WEDNESDAY.
.TONIGHT...
WEATHER..............CLEAR (0-10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE......50-55 F.
MAX HUMIDITY.........19-25%
20-FT WINDS..........SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH
DECREASING TO 5-10 MPH BY 2300.
MIXING HEIGHT........DECREASING TO 1000-1500 FT AGL BY 2300.
TRANSPORT WINDS......SOUTHWEST 20 MPH DECREASING TO 10 MPH BY
2300.
SMOKE DISPERSION.....BECOMING POOR.
HAINES INDEX.........6 HIGH
LAL..................1
.WEDNESDAY...
WEATHER..............SUNNY (0-10%)
MAX TEMPERATURE......85-89 F.
MIN HUMIDITY.........4-8%
20-FT WINDS..........SOUTH 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING
TO SOUTHWEST 18-23 MPH BY 1200. GUSTS TO
25 MPH AFTER 1000...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
AFTER 1200.
MIXING HEIGHT........13000 FT AGL AFTER 1300.
TRANSPORT WINDS......SOUTHWEST 25 MPH AFTER 1100 INCREASING TO
37 MPH BY 1300.
SMOKE DISPERSION.....FAIR AFTER 0930 BECOMING EXCELLENT BY 1200.
HAINES INDEX.........6 HIGH
LAL..................1
FORECASTER...DANIELS
$$
REQUESTED BY...IC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
000
FNUS75 KGJT 190249
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR CHAPETA WELLS...JENSEN VFD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
849 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 2029 MDT ON JUNE 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THURSDAY...
.DISCUSSION...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SETTLE AFTER SUNSET...BUT NIGHTTIME INVERSION
WILL BE SHALLOW AND EASILY MIXED OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AND
WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE AREA TOWARD EVENING...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 1800 AND 2100 WEDNESDAY EVENING.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........23-28%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 7-13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 5 MPH
AFTER 2130.
CLEARING INDEX......DECREASING TO 200 BY 2200.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 500-1000 FT AGL BY 2200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 19 MPH DECREASING TO SOUTH 7 MPH
AFTER 2130.
.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....90-95 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........2-7%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING
SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH BY 1200. GUSTS TO 20 MPH
AFTER 1000...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AFTER 1200.
CLEARING INDEX......1000+ AFTER 1100.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......16500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH AT 1100...INCREASING TO 33 MPH
BY 1300.
$$
FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS
REQUESTED BY...FIRE 901
TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT
.TAG 20130618.CHAPE.01/GJT
000
FNUS75 KGJT 190005
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR DARK CANYON...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
605 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1643 MDT ON JUNE 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM THURSDAY FOR GUSTY
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS BELOW 7000 FEET...
.DISCUSSION...WINDY AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE
PERIOD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER TEXAS AND LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO CANADA. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN UTAH ON WEDNESDAY BY SHOULD STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
FRONT LOOKS TO STAY NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE FIRE...WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED. THIS PATTERN AND THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME GRADIENT WINDS
PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
NOTE: NEARBY NORTH LONG POINT RAWS AT 8681 FT HAD SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER OBSERVED HUMIDITY AND A BIT WARMER TEMPS TODAY THIS FORECAST
WAS LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION IN ANTICIPATION OF STRONGER WINDS AT
THE FIRE PROVIDING BETTER MIXING THAN TODAY.
.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-73 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-12%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH
BY 1200. GUSTS TO 20 MPH AFTER 0900 WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH AFTER 1200.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-73 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-12%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 9-13 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15-20 MPH BY
1200. GUSTS TO 20 MPH AFTER 0900 WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH AFTER 1200.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-71 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-14%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 6-10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 12-17 MPH BY
1200. GUSTS TO 20 MPH AFTER 1000 WITH GUSTS TO
30 MPH AFTER 1200.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
$$
FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS
REQUESTED BY...DAVID ENGLEMAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130618.DARKC.01/GJT
000
FNUS75 KGJT 181911
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR LEWIS MEAS...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
111 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1242 MDT ON JUNE 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM MDT
THURSDAY...
.DISCUSSION...EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING WITH LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. RH RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RH TO THE FIRE SITE AND
AS A RESULT...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT NOON.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........13-18%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH 1900...
TRANSITIONING TO DOWNSLOPE 3 TO 5 MPH BY 2100.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD (142300 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR
(10800-14400 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......11300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH THROUGH 03Z...THEN DOWNSLOPE
5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-91 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........4-9%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE 3 TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH AROUND 1200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING EXCELLENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 12900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH INCREASING TO 25 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
$$
FORECASTER...NORV LARSON
REQUESTED BY...YAZZIE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130618.LEWIS.01/GJT
000
FNUS75 KGJT 181908
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR WILD-HACKING COMPLEX...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
108 PM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1235 MDT ON JUNE 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR DRY
FUELS...LOW RH...GUSTY WINDS...
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
AS PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE COMES ONTO THE OREGON SHORE. IN
RESPONSE... SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT
BECOME MUCH STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE
30S THIS MORNING INDICATE BUILDUPS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH CLOUD BASES AT 12000 FEET ABOVE THE FIRE...NO LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED AT THE FIRE SITE. VIRGA-INDUCED GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. POOR RH IS RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE-
BASED INVERSION WILL LIKELY BREAK AT TIMES. WEDNESDAY...A DRY COOL
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY COOL FRONT. DEWPOINTS AND RH WILL BE
LOWER. FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMES FOR LATE AFTERNOON.
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. AFTERNOON VIRGA POSSIBLE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-83 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-18%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 8-12
MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
GUSTY ERRATIC AFTERNOON WINDS FROM VIRGA.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........25-30%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 3-8 MPH...OCCASIONALLY 10-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-13%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 45 MPH...SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST
AFTER 1700.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130618.WILDH.01/GJT
000
FNUS75 KGJT 181729
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR WARD GULCH...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1129 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1046 MDT ON JUNE 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THURSDAY
FOR DRY FUELS...LOW RH...AND GUSTY WINDS...
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE HASS SHIFTED ONTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
AS PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE COMES ONTO THE OREGON SHORE. IN
RESPONSE... SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT
BECOME MUCH STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE
30S TODAY INDICATE BUILDUPS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EARLY AFTERNOON.
WITH CLOUD BASES AT 12000 FEET ABOVE THE FIRE...NO LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED AT THE FIRE SITE AND VIRGA INDUCED WINDS WILL BE
DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE. POOR RH RECOVERY EXPECTED TONIGHT.
AS WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY...DEWPOINTS FALL.
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-13%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE 1-4 MPH UNTIL 1200...SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST 5-10 WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR INCREASING TO EXCELLENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 14800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 MPH.
.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........21-26%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 1-5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 TO 2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........4-9%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 1-5 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO EXCELLENT.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 17500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 MPH INCREASING TO 35 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130618.WARDG.01/GJT
000
FNUS75 KGJT 180957
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR MCKENZIE CREEK...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
357 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2205 MDT ON JUNE 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS...
.DISCUSSION...BURN SITE WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN TODAY AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING DRY AIR TO THE REGION. DEEP MIXING WILL OCCUR
IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE. THESE WINDS
SHOULD RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 MPH. THE WINDS ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR AND
CRITICAL FUELS IN PLACE HAVE CAUSED A RED FLAG WARNING TO BE ISSUED
FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE
EVEN GUSTIER WINDS WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........7-12%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO EXCELLENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 16500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 MPH.
$$
FORECASTER...TOM RENWICK
REQUESTED BY...IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130617.MCKEN.01/GJT
000
FNUS75 KGJT 180126
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR WARD GULCH...CO-GRD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
726 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0934 MDT ON JUNE 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS...
.DISCUSSION...DRY SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY
AS LARGE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. WITH
DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING...GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP CREATING CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONGER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THAT LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT MINIMAL SURFACE INVERSIONS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED HUMIDITY RECOVERY.
.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-13%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING UPSLOPE
3-5 MPH. AFTER 1200...SOUTHWEST 10-13 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
BY 1300.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......12000 FT AGL AT 1200...INCREASING TO 20000 FT AGL
BY 1600.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 MPH AT 1200 INCREASING TO 20 MPH.
$$
FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS
REQUESTED BY...IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130617.WARDG.01/GJT
000
FNUS75 KGJT 180103
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR WILD-HACKING COMPLEX
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
703 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY UNTIL 10 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS...
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST UNTIL SUNDOWN THIS
EVENING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS.
WIND WILL TRANSITION TO DOWNSLOPE BY LATE EVENING. DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT LESSER HUMIDITY RECOVERY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.TONIGHT...
WEATHER..............PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) UNTIL 2100...THEN
MOSTLY CLEAR (0-10%). ISOLATED SHOWER OR
DRY THUNDERSTORM UNTIL 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE......51-56 F.
MAX HUMIDITY.........35-40%
20-FT WINDS..........SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
UNTIL 2000...THEN BECOMING DOWNSLOPE
5 MPH BY 2200. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX.........6 HIGH
LAL..................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
.TUESDAY...
WEATHER..............MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%).
MAX TEMPERATURE......80-84 F.
MIN HUMIDITY.........8-13%
20-FT WINDS..........DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING
UPSLOPE 5 MPH. AFTER 1200...SOUTHWEST
8-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX.........6 HIGH
LAL..................1
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
WEATHER..............CLEAR (O-10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE......51-56 F.
MAX HUMIDITY.........20-25%
20-FT WINDS..........SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
UNTIL 2100...THEN SOUTHWEST 7-12 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH OVER RIDGETOPS. BECOMING
DOWNSLOPE 5 MPH IN THE DEEPER CANYONS BY
2400.
HAINES INDEX.........6 HIGH
LAL..................1
FORECASTER...DANIELS
$$
REQUESTED BY...IC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
000
FNUS75 KGJT 172234
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR CARPENTER COMMAND...CRAIG DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
434 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1457 MDT ON JUNE 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
UNTIL SUNDOWN TODAY AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL TRANSITION INTO A DRAINAGE PATTERN
BY LATE EVENING. GRADIENT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY
AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT
EVEN STRONGER WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
.TODAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-20%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST (UPVALLEY) 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................2.
.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%) UNTIL 2400...THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........52-57%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 5 MPH BECOMING EAST (DOWNVALLEY) 5-10 MPH
AFTER 2200. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20% UNTIL 1300....THEN 20-30%)
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-18%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST (DOWNVALLEY) 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1000...SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTHEAST 5 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN BECOMING
WEST 8-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
$$
FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS
REQUESTED BY...IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130617.CARPE.01/GJT
000
FNUS75 KGJT 172139
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR DARK CANYON...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
339 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1357 MDT ON JUNE 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM MDT
THURSDAY BELOW 7000 FEET FOR DRY FUELS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND GUSTY
WINDS...
.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN COLORADO
BREAKS DOWN TUESDAY. A DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WIND WILL
INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND MORE SO FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RED
FLAG CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
.REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........8-12%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........30-35%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE...MAINLY WEST...1-4 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........68-73%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 1-5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING
TO SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...KATIE WHALEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130617.DARKC.01/GJT
000
FNUS75 KGJT 171902
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR WILD-HACKING COMPLEX...CRAIG DISPATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
102 PM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1156 MDT ON JUNE 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...
.DISCUSSION...MARGINAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE BURN SITE WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE TODAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FIRE SITE TODAY. ANY NEARBY BUILDUPS SHOULD
COLLAPSE BEFORE SUNSET WITH MODERATE INVERSIONS SETTING UP
OVERNIGHT. THE DRY WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. THESE HOT DRY AND BREEZY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-86 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........7-12%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 3-6 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........55-60%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 3-6 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........6-11%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 2-6 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-15
MPH WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130617.WILDH.02/GJT
000
FNUS75 KGJT 171701
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR LEWIS MESA...UMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1101 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1040 MDT ON JUNE 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...
.DISCUSSION...MARGINAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE BURN SITE WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE TODAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FIRE SITE TODAY. ANY NEARBY BUILDUPS SHOULD
COLLAPSE BEFORE SUNSET WITH MODERATE INVERSIONS SETTING UP
OVERNIGHT. THE DRY WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....80-83 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-11%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 3-6 MPH...INCREASING TO 4-8 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO VERY GOOD THIS AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 13500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........40-45%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 1-5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (MAX OF 6000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-85 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........5-9%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 1-5 MPH UNTIL 0900 THEN SHIFTING
TO UPSLOPE BECOMING SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900 INCREASING TO VERY
GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 MPH UNTIL 0900 SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST
12 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...DIEDTTRICH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130617.LEWIS.01/GJT
000
FNUS75 KGJT 171638
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR WARD GULCH...CO-GRD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1038 AM MDT MON JUN 17 2013
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0934 MDT ON JUNE 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...
.DISCUSSION...MARGINAL MOISTURE OVER THE BURN SITE WILL ERODE
TODAY. MOST THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TO THE EAST OF
THE FIRE TODAY BUT AN ISOLATED STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE PRODUCING
MORE WIND THAN RAIN. ANY NEARBY BUILDUPS SHOULD COLLAPSE BEFORE
SUNSET WITH MODERATE INVERSIONS OVERNIGHT. THE DRY WARMING TREND
CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-87 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-15%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 1-5 MPH...INCREASING TO 4-8 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD THIS MORNING...THEN EXCELLENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 12000 FT AGL....EXCEPT 20000
FT NEAR STORMS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...
SKY/WEATHER.........BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........40-45%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 1-4 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR ( MAX OF 7000 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....86-89 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........6-9%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 2-6 MPH UNTIL 1000 THEN LIGHT UPSLOPE.
SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 20000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 MPH.
$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130617.WARDG.01/GJT
000
FNUS75 KGJT 170158
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR DARK CANYON...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
758 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1854 MDT ON JUNE 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
.DISCUSSION...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND AN UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. DEEP MIXING FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL
RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. NIGHTTIME INVERSIONS WILL
BE SHALLOW ON THE MESA TOP AND SHOULD EASILY MIX OUT AROUND MID-
MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........20-25%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH BECOMING WEST 5 MPH BY 2100...THEN
DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-4 MPH BY 2400.
CLEARING INDEX......850 UNTIL 2100...THEN LOWERING TO 50 BY 2200.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL UNTIL SUNSET THEN DECREASING TO 500
FT AGL BY 2200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 MPH BECOMING WEST 5 MPH AFTER 2100...THEN
DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-4 MPH BY 2400.
.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-15%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5 MPH AFTER 1000...INCREASING TO 10-13
MPH AFTER 1200 WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.
CLEARING INDEX......1000+ AFTER 1200.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......11000 FT AGL AT 1200... INCREASING TO 16000 FT AGL.
BY 1500.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 MPH AFTER 1200.
.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....46-51 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........18-25%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST8-13 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 MPH AFTER 2100.
CLEARING INDEX......DECREASING TO 100.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 700 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 MPH DECREASING TO 5 MPH AFTER 2100.
$$
FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS
REQUESTED BY...KATIE WHALEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130616.DARKC.01/GJT
000
FNUS75 KGJT 170132
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR WILD-HACKING COMPLEX
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
732 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED MONDAY BUT IT DOES LOOK A LITTLE
DRIER THAN TODAY.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER..........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%) UNTIL 2100...THEN
MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20%). ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE......49-54 F.
MAX HUMIDITY.........24-29%
20-FT WINDS..........SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN BECOMING
DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX.........5 MODERATE
LAL..................2 UNTIL 2100...THEN 1.
.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER..........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%).
MAX TEMPERATURE......75-79 F.
MIN HUMIDITY.........9-14%
20-FT WINDS..........DOWNSLOPE 2-4 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING
SOUTHWEST 5 MPH BY 1200...INCREASING TO
6-8 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX.........6 HIGH
LAL..................1
.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER..........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30%).
MIN TEMPERATURE......48-53 F.
MAX HUMIDITY.........25-30%
20-FT WINDS..........SOUTHWEST 5 MPH BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
2-4 MPH AFTER 2100.
HAINES INDEX.........6 HIGH
LAL..................1
FORECASTER...DANIELS
$$
REQUESTED BY...WILD IC
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
000
FNUS75 KGJT 170104
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR LEWIS MESA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
704 PM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
DISCUSSION...WHILE NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THE FIRE THIS
EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA
MAY STILL PRODUCE SOME OUTFLOW GUSTS AT THE FIRE. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE COME TERRAIN DRIVEN LATE THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE INVERSION
BEGINS TO FORM. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY...WHICH LOOKS A LITTLE WARMER AND A LITTLE DRIER THAN TODAY.
.THIS EVENING (UNTIL SUNSET)...
SKY/WEATHER..........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%)
TEMPERATURE..........77-81 F.
HUMIDITY.............16-19%
20-FT WINDS..........WEST 5-8 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 14 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT........12500 FT AGL
TRANSPORT WINDS......WEST 10 MPH
HAINES INDEX.........5
LAL..................1
.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...
SKY/WEATHER..........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%) BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR (10-20%) BY 2200.
MIN TEMPERATURE......54-58 F.
MAX HUMIDITY.........40-50%
20-FT WINDS.........BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-4 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT........LOWERING TO 600 FT AGL BY 2200.
TRANSPORT WINDS......BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX.........5
LAL..................1
.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER..........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%) UNTIL 1300...
THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE......85-88 F.
HUMIDITY.............10-15%
20-FT WINDS..........DOWNSLOPE 2-4 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN UPSLOPE
2-4 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHWEST 5-7 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT........11000 FT AGL AT 1200 RISING TO 14500 FT AGL
BY 1600.
TRANSPORT WINDS......SOUTHWEST 10 MPH AT 1200 INCREASING TO
14 MPH BY 1500.
HAINES INDEX.........5
LAL..................1
FORECASTER...DANIELS
$$
REQUESTED BY...DIEDTTRICH
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
000
FNUS75 KGJT 161757
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR WARD GULCH...UCR IMT3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1157 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1046 MDT ON JUNE 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR LOOKS TO BE WORKING INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A MORE DEFINED WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE THUNDERSTORM TO FIRE
SITE THIS MORNING IS MOVING EAST AND THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN STORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH 1300. HOWEVER CONVECTION IS REFORMING TO THE WEST OF
OF THE FIRE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT SOME BUILD UPS OVER THE
NEARBY HIGHER RIDGES...WITH A SMALL THREAT OF A STORM NEAR THE FIRE
ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LESSEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF
THE FIRE OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT STRONGER TODAY BEFORE LIGHTER WINDS
MOVE IN ALOFT TONIGHT. AFTER SUNSET DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY WINDS SHOULD
SET UP AND PERSIST TO 1000 ON MONDAY.
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81 TO 86 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-24%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT 11 TO 16 MPH WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO EXCELLENT BY 1400.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 14100 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 25 MPH.
.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 50 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........31-36%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AT 3 TO 8 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........4 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH...BECOMING TERRAIN DRIVEN BY
LATE EVENING.
.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%) THROUGH 11000 THEN
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%) WITH BUILD
UP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND
EAST.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........13-18%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AT 3 TO 7 MPH THROUGH 1000
BECOMING SOUTHWEST 7 TO 12 MPH BY 1300 THE
AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR THROUGH 1000 THEN INCREASING TO
EXCELLENT BY 1400 IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 14600 FT AGL BY 1400.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...DWIGHT HENNINGER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130616.WARDG.01/GJT
000
FNUS75 KGJT 161735
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR WILD ON SCENE...NPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1135 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1106 MDT ON JUNE 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR LOOKS TO BE WORKING INTO NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GENERAL DOWN TURN IN THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE FIRE SITE. THERE COULD HOWEVER STILL BE
SOME BUILD UPS OVER THE NEARBY HIGHER RIDGES...WITH A SMALL THREAT
OF SOME OUTFLOW WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE FIRE SITE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LESSEN TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE FIRE OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT STRONGER TODAY BEFORE LIGHTER WINDS MOVE IN ALOFT TONIGHT.
AFTER SUNSET DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY WINDS SHOULD SET UP AND PERSIST
TO NEAR 1000 ON MONDAY.
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%)...WITH BUILD UPS ON NEARBY
HIGHER TERRAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 75 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 TO 11 MPH THROUGH LATE MORNING
THEN INCREASING TO 11 TO 16 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 50 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........28-33%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY AT 3 TO 6 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 76 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........9-14%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNVALLEY WINDS 3 TO 7 MPH THROUGH 1000 MORNING...THEN
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 8 TO 13 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...WILD IC
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130616.WILDO.01/GJT
000
FNUS75 KGJT 160954
FWSGJT
SPOT FORECAST FOR DARK CANYON...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
354 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 2005 MDT ON JUNE 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
.DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM TODAY. MOST OF THESE STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE BURN SITE
BUT THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM TO FORM
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM
CONTINUES TO BE GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS OF 45 MPH OR SO. AFTER
SUNSET...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END LEADING INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL
BE CLEAR WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY DUE TO A SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........14-19%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH INCREASING TO 10
TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AFTER 11AM.
ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH FROM
ANY STORMS THAT FORM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO EXCELLENT AFTER 11AM.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-52 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........19-24%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 14 MPH DECREASING TO 5 MPH
AFTER 10PM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 13
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AFTER 12PM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD AFTER 12PM.
HAINES INDEX........6 HIGH.
LAL.................1.
$$
FORECASTER...TOM RENWICK
REQUESTED BY...KATIE WHALEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20130615.DARKC.02/GJT
| 
