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000
FNUS75 KGJT 191549
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR USAPCC STAGE 2...PITKIN COUNTY IMT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
949 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0920 MDT ON AUGUST 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOON MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING BUT
THE DEEPEST SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE COLORADO AND UTAH BORDER THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE MOVING EAST THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING SHOULD DEVELOP INTO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM KEBLER PASS TO CRESTED BUTTE BY 2 PM.
ACTIVE SHOWERS WILL STAY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT FROM GUNNISON TO CRESTED
BUTTE. ISOLATED VALLEY STORMS AND SCATTERED STORMS ABOVE 9000 FEET
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE STAGE 3 ROUTE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

.TODAY ALONG STAGE 2 ROUTE...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
                    NEAR RACE START AND ALONG THE ROUTE THROUGH
                    EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
                    DEVELOPING AFTER 2 PM ALONG THE STAGE 2 RACE
                    ROUTE. THREATS OF SMALL HAIL...LIGHTNING AND
                    HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KEBLER PASS TO CRESTED
                    BUTTE FINISH.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....TEMPERATURES AROUND 67F AT START TIME IN
                    ASPEN. TEMPERATURES 55-60F AT NEAR 10000 FT
                    THIS AFTERNOON.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36%.

.TONIGHT IN CRESTED BUTTE...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98%.

.WEDNESDAY ALONG STAGE 3 ROUTE...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
                    GUNNISON BASIN IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MONARCH PASS
                    BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ARKANSAS VALLEY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 57F AT THE FINISH LINE.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49%.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...COURTNEY DEVITO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140819.USAPC.01/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 191549
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR USAPCC STAGE 2...PITKIN COUNTY IMT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
949 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0920 MDT ON AUGUST 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MONSOON MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO WESTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING BUT
THE DEEPEST SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE COLORADO AND UTAH BORDER THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE MOVING EAST THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING SHOULD DEVELOP INTO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM KEBLER PASS TO CRESTED BUTTE BY 2 PM.
ACTIVE SHOWERS WILL STAY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT FROM GUNNISON TO CRESTED
BUTTE. ISOLATED VALLEY STORMS AND SCATTERED STORMS ABOVE 9000 FEET
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE STAGE 3 ROUTE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

.TODAY ALONG STAGE 2 ROUTE...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
                    NEAR RACE START AND ALONG THE ROUTE THROUGH
                    EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
                    DEVELOPING AFTER 2 PM ALONG THE STAGE 2 RACE
                    ROUTE. THREATS OF SMALL HAIL...LIGHTNING AND
                    HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KEBLER PASS TO CRESTED
                    BUTTE FINISH.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....TEMPERATURES AROUND 67F AT START TIME IN
                    ASPEN. TEMPERATURES 55-60F AT NEAR 10000 FT
                    THIS AFTERNOON.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36%.

.TONIGHT IN CRESTED BUTTE...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98%.

.WEDNESDAY ALONG STAGE 3 ROUTE...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
                    GUNNISON BASIN IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MONARCH PASS
                    BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ARKANSAS VALLEY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 57F AT THE FINISH LINE.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49%.

$$
FORECASTER...DENNIS PHILLIPS
REQUESTED BY...COURTNEY DEVITO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140819.USAPC.01/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 190125
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR LARKSPUR MTN...PITKIN COUNTY SHERIFF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
725 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1910 MDT ON AUGUST 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOST STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE DOES REMAIN FOR A QUICK PASSING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SAR SITE. IF THIS OCCURS...BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 TO 35
MPH. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR TOMORROW ALONG WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING BUT BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SHOWERS IS AFTER 12PM. HEAVY RAIN...SOME
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE ALL POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.REMAINDER OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A PASSING
                    SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66 F.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.  VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
                    PASSING SHOWER OR STORM.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46 F.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58 F.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...TOM RENWICK
REQUESTED BY...DUSTIN GRAY
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20140818.LARKS.01/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 190125
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR LARKSPUR MTN...PITKIN COUNTY SHERIFF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
725 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1910 MDT ON AUGUST 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOST STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL BE COMING TO AN END OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE DOES REMAIN FOR A QUICK PASSING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SAR SITE. IF THIS OCCURS...BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 TO 35
MPH. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR TOMORROW ALONG WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MORNING BUT BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS AND SHOWERS IS AFTER 12PM. HEAVY RAIN...SOME
HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE ALL POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.REMAINDER OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A PASSING
                    SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66 F.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.  VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
                    PASSING SHOWER OR STORM.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46 F.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58 F.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...TOM RENWICK
REQUESTED BY...DUSTIN GRAY
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20140818.LARKS.01/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 182339
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR USAPCC STAGE 2...PITKIN COUNTY IMT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
539 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1645 MDT ON AUGUST 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEEP SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE STAGE 2
RACE ROUTE FROM ASPEN TO CRESTED BUTTE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...PEA SIZED HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.TUESDAY ALONG STAGE 2 ROUTE...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY
                    NOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE MORNING...BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER THE
                    STAGE 2 ROUTE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN
                    AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
                    STORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70 F AT START TIME IN ASPEN AND IN THE
                    AFTERNOON IN CRESTED BUTTE. 55-60 F AT
                    10000 FEET IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-45%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH...EXCEPT 10 TO 20 MPH
                    OVER MCCLURE AND KEBLER PASSES. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AND
                    STORMS.


.TUESDAY NIGHT IN CRESTED BUTTE...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOCALLY
                    HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE NORTH 3-7 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY ALONG STAGE 3 ROUTE...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
                    ALONG STAGE 3 ROUTE. SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE
                    WITH STRONGER AFTERNOON STORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60 TO 65 F AT START TIME IN GUNNISON...
                    55 TO 60 F AT MONARCH PASS...
                    76 TO 80 IN SALIDA.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...COURTNEY DEVITO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140818.USAPC.03/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 182339
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR USAPCC STAGE 2...PITKIN COUNTY IMT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
539 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1645 MDT ON AUGUST 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEEP SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE STAGE 2
RACE ROUTE FROM ASPEN TO CRESTED BUTTE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...PEA SIZED HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.TUESDAY ALONG STAGE 2 ROUTE...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY
                    NOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE MORNING...BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER THE
                    STAGE 2 ROUTE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN
                    AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
                    STORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70 F AT START TIME IN ASPEN AND IN THE
                    AFTERNOON IN CRESTED BUTTE. 55-60 F AT
                    10000 FEET IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-45%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH...EXCEPT 10 TO 20 MPH
                    OVER MCCLURE AND KEBLER PASSES. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AND
                    STORMS.


.TUESDAY NIGHT IN CRESTED BUTTE...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOCALLY
                    HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE NORTH 3-7 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY ALONG STAGE 3 ROUTE...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
                    ALONG STAGE 3 ROUTE. SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE
                    WITH STRONGER AFTERNOON STORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60 TO 65 F AT START TIME IN GUNNISON...
                    55 TO 60 F AT MONARCH PASS...
                    76 TO 80 IN SALIDA.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...COURTNEY DEVITO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140818.USAPC.03/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 182322
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR USAPCC STAGE 2...PITKIN COUNTY IMT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
522 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1628 MDT ON AUGUST 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEEP SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE STAGE 2
RACE ROUTE FROM ASPEN TO CRESTED BUTTE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...PEA SIZED HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.TUESDAY ALONG STAGE 2 ROUTE...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY
                    NOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE MORNING...BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER THE
                    STAGE 2 ROUTE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN
                    AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
                    STORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70 F AT START TIME IN ASPEN AND IN THE
                    AFTERNOON IN CRESTED BUTTE. 55-60 F AT
                    10000 FEET IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-45%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH...EXCEPT 10 TO 20 MPH
                    OVER MCCLURE AND KEBLER PASSES. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AND
                    STORMS.


.TUESDAY NIGHT IN CRESTED BUTTE...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOCALLY
                    HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE NORTH 3-7 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY ALONG STAGE 3 ROUTE...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
                    ALONG STAGE 3 ROUTE. SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE
                    WITH STRONGER AFTERNOON STORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60 TO 65 F AT START TIME IN GUNNISON...
                    55 TO 60 F AT MONARCH PASS...
                    76 TO 80 IN SALIDA.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...COURTNEY DEVITO
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20140818.USAPC.04/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 182322
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR USAPCC STAGE 2...PITKIN COUNTY IMT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
522 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1628 MDT ON AUGUST 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEEP SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE STAGE 2
RACE ROUTE FROM ASPEN TO CRESTED BUTTE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...PEA SIZED HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.TUESDAY ALONG STAGE 2 ROUTE...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY
                    NOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE MORNING...BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER THE
                    STAGE 2 ROUTE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN
                    AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
                    STORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70 F AT START TIME IN ASPEN AND IN THE
                    AFTERNOON IN CRESTED BUTTE. 55-60 F AT
                    10000 FEET IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-45%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 MPH...EXCEPT 10 TO 20 MPH
                    OVER MCCLURE AND KEBLER PASSES. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AND
                    STORMS.


.TUESDAY NIGHT IN CRESTED BUTTE...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOCALLY
                    HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE NORTH 3-7 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY ALONG STAGE 3 ROUTE...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
                    ALONG STAGE 3 ROUTE. SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE
                    WITH STRONGER AFTERNOON STORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60 TO 65 F AT START TIME IN GUNNISON...
                    55 TO 60 F AT MONARCH PASS...
                    76 TO 80 IN SALIDA.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...COURTNEY DEVITO
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20140818.USAPC.04/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 182104
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR FRYING PAN...PITKIN COUNTY SHERIFF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
304 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1430 MDT ON AUGUST 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. ON TUESDAY A DEEPER SURGE OF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. ISOLATED
MORNING SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
SOME STORMS...AND PEA SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 8 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S.

.THIS AFTERNOON (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OUTFLOW GUSTS
                    30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 MPH.

.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DIMINISHING...THEN
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 2-6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......QUICKLY DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%)...BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%) BY MID MORNING. ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
                    MORNING...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. HEAVY RAIN AND
                    PEA SIZED HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
                    STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE 0-4 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH. INCREASING TO
                    8-12 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS  TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN INCREASING TO
                    7900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...GEORGE KREMER
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20140818.FRYIN.01/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 182104
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR FRYING PAN...PITKIN COUNTY SHERIFF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
304 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1430 MDT ON AUGUST 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. ON TUESDAY A DEEPER SURGE OF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. ISOLATED
MORNING SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
SOME STORMS...AND PEA SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 8 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S.

.THIS AFTERNOON (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....64-69 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OUTFLOW GUSTS
                    30-40 MPH POSSIBLE.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......9800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 MPH.

.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY DIMINISHING...THEN
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 2-6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......QUICKLY DECREASING TO 1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%)...BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%) BY MID MORNING. ISOLATED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
                    MORNING...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. HEAVY RAIN AND
                    PEA SIZED HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
                    STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE 0-4 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH. INCREASING TO
                    8-12 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS  TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN INCREASING TO
                    7900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...GEORGE KREMER
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20140818.FRYIN.01/GJT





000
FNUS75 KGJT 182021
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR USAPCC STAGE 2...PITKIN COUNTY IMT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
221 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1415 MDT ON AUGUST 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A DEEPER SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG STAGE 2 RACE ROUTE FROM
ASPEN TO CRESTED BUTTE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND PEA SIZED HAIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.TONIGHT (NEAR ASPEN)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........63-68%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 2-6 MPH. VARIABLE WINDS TO 15 MPH
                    POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER STAGE
                    2 ROUTE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN
                    WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72 F AT 7500 FEET. 57-62 F AT 9000 FEET.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...COURTNEY DEVITO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140818.USAPC.02/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 181900
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR USAPCC STAGE 1...PITKIN COUNTY SO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
100 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1231 MDT ON AUGUST 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...TODAY`S SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL STAY
MAINLY OVER THE NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER ISOLATED STORMS MAY
AT TIMES AFFECT THE RACE ROUTE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...
WHICH MAY ALSO ORIGINATE FROM THE NEARBY MOUNTAIN STORMS. A DEEPER
SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE STAGE 2 RACE ROUTE FROM ASPEN TO CRESTED
BUTTE.


.THIS AFTERNOON (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-82 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
                    THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........63-68%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 2-6 MPH. VARIABLE WINDS TO 15 MPH
                    POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING.
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON IN THE VALLEYS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH SOME
                    STORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...ALEX BURCHETTA
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20140818.USAPC.01/GJT




000
FNUS75 KGJT 181900
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR USAPCC STAGE 1...PITKIN COUNTY SO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
100 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1231 MDT ON AUGUST 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...TODAY`S SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL STAY
MAINLY OVER THE NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER ISOLATED STORMS MAY
AT TIMES AFFECT THE RACE ROUTE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...
WHICH MAY ALSO ORIGINATE FROM THE NEARBY MOUNTAIN STORMS. A DEEPER
SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE STAGE 2 RACE ROUTE FROM ASPEN TO CRESTED
BUTTE.


.THIS AFTERNOON (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-82 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). AN ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
                    THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........63-68%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 2-6 MPH. VARIABLE WINDS TO 15 MPH
                    POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (70-80%). ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING.
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON IN THE VALLEYS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH SOME
                    STORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...ALEX BURCHETTA
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20140818.USAPC.01/GJT





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