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000
FNUS72 KILM 221518
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR SINGLETARY LAKE...NC STATE PARK LAWA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1118 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON APRIL 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS THIS FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE...
REACHES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE FRONT MAY BE PRECEDED BY A
LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE
OF WETTING RAINFALL (ONE-TENTH INCH OR MORE) IS LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. DRY WEATHER AND NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...LOW.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........76 AT IGNITION...MAX 82.
RH..................42 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 11
                    MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 6900
                    FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16 TO 18 MPH.
MAX ADI.............63.
MAX LVORI...........1.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (115114 MPH-FT)

TIME (EDT)          NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............17     17     18
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................76     80     81
RH..................42     35     32
20 FT WIND..........SW 6   SW 7   W 9
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     20
MIX HGT (FT)........3200   5700   6900
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 17  SW 16  W 18
LVORI...............1      1      1
ADI.................51     52     59
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...54     95     127

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 54.
RH..................MAX 92 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 0-300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 9 TO 17 MPH.
MAX ADI.............43.
MAX LVORI...........6.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO EXCELLENT (33810-79465
                    MPH-FT)...DECREASING TO POOR (2185 MPH-FT)
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............32     59     57     46     28     22
WEATHER COV.........       CHANCE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............       CHANCE S CHC
TEMP................80     72     67     62     60     57
RH..................36     57     72     81     82     89
20 FT WIND..........W 7    W 5    W 5    W 5    W 5    NW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     10     10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........4600   300    250    250    250    250
TRANSPORT WIND......W 17   W 13   W 9    W 9    W 9    NW 9
LVORI...............1      2      4      5      6      5
ADI.................43     10     10     6      6      4
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...79     3      2      2      2      2

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 73.
RH..................MIN 25 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 4400-5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
MAX ADI.............67.
MAX LVORI...........4.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (60719-106029 MPH-FT) IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............11     6      5      4      4      5
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................54     56     62     68     71     73
RH..................82     65     46     33     26     25
20 FT WIND..........NW 5   N 6    NW 7   NW 8   NW 8   NW 7
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     15     15     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)........BLW100 300    3200   5100   5100   4900
TRANSPORT WIND......NW 12  N 16   N 20   N 21   NW 20  NW 18
LVORI...............4      3      2      1      1      1
ADI.................8      11     13     65     61     56
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...3      4      61     106    98     90

$$
FORECASTER...ARMSTRONG
REQUESTED BY...THOMAS CRATE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140422.SINGL.01/ILM






000
FNUS72 KILM 221137
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR MOORES CREEK RX...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
737 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS
WESTERN TENNESSEE...REACHES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE FRONT MAY
BE PRECEDED BY A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE OF WETTING RAINFALL (ONE-TENTH INCH OR
MORE) IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. DRY WEATHER AND NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.
BROTAK WIND PROFILE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.

FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...LOW.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
                    20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
MAX ADI.............57.
MAX LVORI...........10.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT. (66470-113389 MPH-FT)

TIME (EDT)          10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............16     17     20     36
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................66     76     80     81
RH..................60     43     38     38
20 FT WIND..........SW 5   SW 6   SW 7   SW 9
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     15     15     18
MIX HGT (FT)........1200   3200   5400   6400
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 10  W 15   W 15   W 17
LVORI...............3      1      1      1
ADI.................4      45     47     57
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...13     47     83     113

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL EARLY...DECREASING TO 250 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST.
MAX ADI.............41.
MAX LVORI...........5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (35190-76475
                    MPH-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING...DECREASING TO
                    POOR (2300 MPH-FT) SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............54     75     75     66     50     28
WEATHER COV.........       ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............       ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
TEMP................77     70     66     63     61     58
RH..................46     62     76     84     88     88
20 FT WIND..........SW 7   SW 5   W 5    W 5    W 5    NW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....20     15     10     10     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)........4200   300    250    250    250    200
TRANSPORT WIND......W 18   W 16   W 10   W 10   W 9    NW 10
LVORI...............1      2      4      4      5      5
ADI.................41     10     11     7      8      7
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...76     4      3      3      2      2

$$
FORECASTER...ARMSTRONG
REQUESTED BY...SASHA ERNST
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140422.MOORE.01/ILM








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