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000
FNUS72 KJAX 161211
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR LONGLEAF...USDA-FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
811 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0730 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH AN AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE UPPER GULF
COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOME STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY...SHIFTING WINDS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
MOVING OUT OF THE STORMS WILL RESULT IN SHIFTING WINDS EVEN AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A CAREFUL WEATHER WATCH SHOULD
BE KEPT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIRE. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 10 MPH OT LESS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
THIS MORNING OR TONIGHT.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.
MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0900...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3 UNTIL
                    1500...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2200-3400 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 1 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 12
                    TO 13 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 42.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........88     86     85     100    100    100
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............72     78     84     85     86     82
RH..............100    90     76     70     69     76
20 FT WIND......SW 2   W 5    W 7    W 7    W 8    W 8
20 FT WIND GUST.5             10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....100    1000   2200   3400   3400   3400
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 2   W 7    W 9    NW 9   N 12   NW 13
LVORI...........9      7      3      3      3      3
DISPERSION INDX.3      10     20     23     41     43
CHC OF PCPN (%).50     60     60     80     80     80
LAL.............1      2      2      3      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 3 UNTIL 2200...THEN 2 UNTIL
                    0300...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-400 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 2
                    TO 7 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....29 DECREASING TO 4.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
LVORI...............7.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........100    87     87     84     78     75
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............81     74     70     70     69     69
RH..............76     94     100    100    100    100
20 FT WIND......W 7    SW 3   SW 3   W 3    W 2    W 2
20 FT WIND GUST.10     5      5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....2400   400    100    100    100    100
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 10  SW 3   SW 3   W 3    W 2    W 2
LVORI...........3      6      9      9      9      10
DISPERSION INDX.29     3      2      2      2      2
CHC OF PCPN (%).80     60     60     40     20     20
LAL.............4      4      2      2      2      1

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 1 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....7 INCREASING TO 25 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 44 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    INCREASING TO 53 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    DECREASING TO 27.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........73     71     61     57     58     58
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............69     69     76     86     88     89
RH..............100    100    83     63     56     54
20 FT WIND......W 2    W 2    W 3    NW 5   NW 5   NW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.       5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....100    100    1100   3200   5600   5600
TRANSPORT WIND..W 1    W 2    W 8    NW 10  NW 8   NW 8
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     30     30     30     30     30
LAL.............1      1      1      3      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...SANDRIK
REQUESTED BY...WAYNE BURNS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20140916.LONGL.01/JAX








000
FNUS72 KJAX 161211
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR LONGLEAF...USDA-FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
811 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0730 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH AN AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING EAST ALONG THE UPPER GULF
COAST. THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOME STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY...SHIFTING WINDS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
MOVING OUT OF THE STORMS WILL RESULT IN SHIFTING WINDS EVEN AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A CAREFUL WEATHER WATCH SHOULD
BE KEPT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIRE. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 10 MPH OT LESS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT EXPECTED
THIS MORNING OR TONIGHT.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.
MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0900...THEN 2 UNTIL 1400...THEN 3 UNTIL
                    1500...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2200-3400 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 1 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 12
                    TO 13 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 42.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
LVORI...............5.

TIME (EDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........88     86     85     100    100    100
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............72     78     84     85     86     82
RH..............100    90     76     70     69     76
20 FT WIND......SW 2   W 5    W 7    W 7    W 8    W 8
20 FT WIND GUST.5             10     10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)....100    1000   2200   3400   3400   3400
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 2   W 7    W 9    NW 9   N 12   NW 13
LVORI...........9      7      3      3      3      3
DISPERSION INDX.3      10     20     23     41     43
CHC OF PCPN (%).50     60     60     80     80     80
LAL.............1      2      2      3      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2100...THEN 3 UNTIL 2200...THEN 2 UNTIL
                    0300...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-400 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 2
                    TO 7 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....29 DECREASING TO 4.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
LVORI...............7.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........100    87     87     84     78     75
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............81     74     70     70     69     69
RH..............76     94     100    100    100    100
20 FT WIND......W 7    SW 3   SW 3   W 3    W 2    W 2
20 FT WIND GUST.10     5      5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....2400   400    100    100    100    100
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 10  SW 3   SW 3   W 3    W 2    W 2
LVORI...........3      6      9      9      9      10
DISPERSION INDX.29     3      2      2      2      2
CHC OF PCPN (%).80     60     60     40     20     20
LAL.............4      4      2      2      2      1

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1100...THEN 2 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5600 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 1 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....7 INCREASING TO 25 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 44 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    INCREASING TO 53 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    DECREASING TO 27.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........73     71     61     57     58     58
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM
TEMP............69     69     76     86     88     89
RH..............100    100    83     63     56     54
20 FT WIND......W 2    W 2    W 3    NW 5   NW 5   NW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.       5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....100    100    1100   3200   5600   5600
TRANSPORT WIND..W 1    W 2    W 8    NW 10  NW 8   NW 8
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     30     30     30     30     30
LAL.............1      1      1      3      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...SANDRIK
REQUESTED BY...WAYNE BURNS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20140916.LONGL.01/JAX







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