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000
FNUS73 KJKL 301530
FWSJKL

SPOT FORECAST FOR LILY MOUNTAIN HAUNTED TRAIL...ESTILL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1130 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1109 EDT ON OCTOBER 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...EXPECT A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRI EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR ONE DAY OF DRY
WEATHER...BEFORE A DEEP UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING COLD AND
BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...THEN NUMEROUS
                    RAIN SHOWERS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGETOP WIND.......WEST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST IN
                    AFTERNOON.
POP.................60 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........93     93     95     96     93     93
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............42     47     49     49     46     42
20 FT WIND DIR..W      W      W      W      NW     NW
20 FT WIND SPD..2      3      6      7      9      9
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      10     10     15     15
RIDGETOP WIND...W 5    W 5    W 5    W 10   NW 10  NW 10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS EARLY...THEN
                    SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING THEN
                    SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS STARTING AROUND
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 32.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
POP.................60 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.

TIME (EDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   6 AM
SKY (%).........100    100    100    100    100    100
WEATHER COV.....NUMRUS NUMRUS SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR
TEMP............39     38     36     35     34     33
20 FT WIND DIR..NW     NW     NW     NW     NW     NW
20 FT WIND SPD..8      8      8      7      8      8
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15     10     15     15
RIDGETOP WIND...NW 10  NW 10  NW 10  NW 10  NW 10  NW 10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY...THEN
                    ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40 TO 45.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 13 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
POP.................30 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........100    100    100    100    95     89
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE....SNSHWR SNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............32     36     40     42     43     42
20 FT WIND DIR..NW     NW     NW     NW     NW     NW
20 FT WIND SPD..7      9      10     13     12     9
20 FT WIND GUST.10     15     20     20     20     15
RIDGETOP WIND...NW 10  NW 10  NW 15  NW 15  NW 15  NW 10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...

.SUNDAY...

PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

.MONDAY...

PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.

.TUESDAY...

PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...GREIF
REQUESTED BY...RONNIE RIDDELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20141030.LILYM.01/JKL






000
FNUS73 KJKL 281959
FWSJKL

SPOT FORECAST FOR DUCK RUN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
359 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1543 EDT ON OCTOBER 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
ARRIVE OVER THE WILDFIRE BY 6 PM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WELL WITH COOLER WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE NIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
RIDGETOP WIND.......NORTHWEST 0 TO 5 MPH.
POP.................100 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 2 UNTIL 0200...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   6 AM
SKY (%).........100    98     96     93     87     82
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD WIDSPD WIDSPD SCTTRD NUMRUS SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............67     60     58     56     54     53
RH..............77     99     99     89     88     87
20 FT WIND......W 3    W 3    NW 3   NW 3   NW 3   NW 3
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      5      5      5
RIDGETOP WIND...W 5    W 5    NW 5   NW 5   NW 5   NW 5
MIX HGT (FT)....3700   2500   2100   2000   1900   1700
TRANSPORT WIND..W 16   W 16   NW 16  N 15   NW 14  NW 12
LAL.............3      3      2      1      1      1
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      4      4      4

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING SUNNY. ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS IN THE EARLY MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT IN THE
                    EVENING.
RIDGETOP WIND.......NORTH AROUND 0 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    UNTIL EVENING.
POP.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4200-5200 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 17 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....76.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........73     48     34     18     16     14
WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............51     54     58     60     61     58
RH..............89     77     61     49     44     47
20 FT WIND......NW 2   W 3    W 3    W 5    W 6    NW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      10     10     10
RIDGETOP WIND...NW 0   W 5    W 5    W 5    W 5    NW 5
MIX HGT (FT)....1000   2000   3000   5000   5100   4900
TRANSPORT WIND..N 8    NW 10  W 14   W 17   W 16   W 16
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      3      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...SHALLENBERGER
REQUESTED BY...E J  BUNZENDAHL
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20141028.DUCKR.01/JKL








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