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000
FNUS76 KMFR 030539
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAVER FIRE...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1039 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1926 PDT ON SEPTEMBER 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY...

.DISCUSSION...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE
FIRE AREA TODAY. COMBINED WITH A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH ALONG
THE COAST..THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONG OFFSHORE WIND WITH LOW
HUMIDITY BOTH DURING THE DAY AND AT NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO WORSEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY
POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER RIDGES AT NIGHT AND DOWN IN THE VALLEYS
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION THE HAINES INDEX WILL BE A
SOLID 5 AT BOTH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CALCULATION.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. AREAS OF SMOKE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80 RIDGES...95-100 VALLEYS.
MIN HUMIDITY........17-20 PERCENT RIDGES...AROUND 10 PERCENT VALLEYS.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....UPSLOPE 1-3 MPH IN THE VALLEYS...MAINLY
                    NORTHEAST 5-8 MPH AT THE UPPER SLOPES AND RIDGES.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST 8-10 MPH UNTIL 1400...THEN INCREASING
                    TO 12-15 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR. AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
MAX HUMIDITY........25-35 PERCENT...EXCEPT 55-70 PERCENT VALLEYS.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 30 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. AREAS OF SMOKE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-78 RIDGES...90-95 VALLEYS.
MIN HUMIDITY........5-10 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....UPSLOPE 1-3 MPH IN THE LOWEST PART OF THE VALLEYS
                    OTHERWISE EAST TO NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO 20 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH UNTIL 1000
                    THEN BECOMING NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...BUNNAG
REQUESTED BY...JOHN MORGAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20140902.BEAVE.01/MFR









000
FNUS76 KMFR 020233
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAVER FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
733 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1905 PDT ON SEPTEMBER 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
   WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND LOW
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 4500 FEET...

.DISCUSSION...A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH FAIR TO POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS...THIS
WILL FURTHER LOWER RH`S ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON THE
RIDGES. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
INCREASED UPVALLEY FLOW.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR. AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-52 VALLEYS...55-59 RIDGES.
MAX HUMIDITY........40-44 PERCENT RIDGES...53-57 PERCENT VALLEYS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST 10 MPH ON THE RIDGES...LIGHT AND
                    VARIABLE IN THE VALLEYS.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. AREAS OF SMOKE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80 RIDGES...NEAR 100 VALLEYS.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-23 PERCENT RIDGES...11-13 PERCENT VALLEYS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST 10 MPH ON THE RIDGES...BECOMING NORTH
                    10 MPH. LIGHT IN THE VALLEYS BECOMING NORTH 10 MPH.
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR. AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47-49 VALLEYS...AROUND 55 RIDGES.
MAX HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT RIDGES...65-70 PERCENT VALLEYS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST 10-20 MPH ON THE RIDGES...NORTH 10 MPH
                    IN THE VALLEYS BECOMING LIGHT.

$$
FORECASTER...STOCKTON
REQUESTED BY...JOHN MORGAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20140901.BEAVE.01/MFR









000
FNUS76 KMFR 011655
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR BUTTE...OR-LIFC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
955 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0929 PDT ON SEPTEMBER 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AS AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS...RH`S WILL
BEGIN TO DROP OVER THE FIRE, AND CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE TOO EXTREME TODAY OR TONIGHT,
BUT BEGINNING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY, WHILE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY. THIS COULD RESULT IN MUCH
MORE ACTIVE FIRE ACTIVITY. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL THEN
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-80.
MIN HUMIDITY........15-20 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST AROUND 5 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-39.
MAX HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT EAST WINDS.

$$
FORECASTER...NIEUWENHUIS
REQUESTED BY...COURTNEY WILSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20140901.BEARB.01/MFR









000
FNUS76 KMFR 010320
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAVER FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
820 PM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1938 PDT ON AUGUST 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH OFFSHORE NORTHEAST WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE
INVERSIONS PRODUCING THE WORST OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES AT
THE RIDGE TOP. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY ON MONDAY
THEN WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY
AS A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY EVENING. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE POOR RECOVERIES
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE VALLEY.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR EXCEPT HAZE AND AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45 BOTTOM TO 55 TOP.
MAX HUMIDITY........NEAR 20 PERCENT TOP TO 65-70 PERCENT BOTTOM.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 1 TO 3 MPH BECOMING
                    NORTHEAST 0 TO 2 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH BECOMING
                    NORTHEAST 5 MPH.

.LABOR DAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY EXCEPT HAZE AND AREAS OF SMOKE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....93 BOTTOM TO 75 TOP.
MIN HUMIDITY........12 PERCENT BOTTOM TO 16 PERCENT TOP.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTHEAST WIND 0 TO 2 MPH BECOMING NORTH 1 TO 3 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO 15 MPH.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR EXCEPT HAZE AND AREAS OF SMOKE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....47 BOTTOM TO 58 TOP.
MAX HUMIDITY........NEAR 20 PERCENT TOP TO 60-65 PERCENT BOTTOM.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH WINDS 1 TO 3 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST 0 TO 2 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH BECOMING
                    NORTHEAST 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...WEYGAND
REQUESTED BY...JOHN MORGAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20140831.BEAVE.01/MFR









000
FNUS76 KMFR 311202
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAVER FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
459 AM PDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1540 PDT ON AUGUST 30.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BECOMING AN ISSUE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY
BUT A WARMING TREND WILL START MONDAY WITH THE WEATHER FOR THE WHOLE
WEEK LIKELY TO BE WARM AND EXTREMELY DRY. HUMIDITY RECOVERY IN THE
VALLEY WILL BE GOOD ON THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL RESULT IN VERY DRY, WARM AIR ABOVE AROUND 4000 TO 5000 FEET MSL.
THE INVERSION WILL TREND STRONGER WITH VERY DRY AIR REACHING LOWER
ELEVATIONS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85 BOTTOM TO AROUND 70 TOP.
MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT BOTTOM TO 20 PERCENT TOP.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT UPSLOPE IN
                    THE MORNING THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46 BOTTOM TO 55 TOP.
MAX HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT BOTTOM TO 20 PERCENT TOP.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....NORTH WINDS 5 MPH BECOMING NORTHEAST 1 TO 3 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 10 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    NORTHEAST 5 MPH.

.LABOR DAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90 BOTTOM TO 75 TOP.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT UPSLOPE IN
                    THE MORNING THEN NORTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH BECOMING NORTH 10 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...WEYGAND
REQUESTED BY...JOHN MORGAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20140830.BEAVE.02/MFR












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