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000
FNUS72 KMLB 181240
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR JDSP FIRE FEST 2014 DEMONSTRATION BURNS...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
840 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON OCTOBER 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A VERY DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A LIGHT NORTHWEST DRIFT THROUGH LATE
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN EARLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...WITH ITS
ONSET AROUND THE PROPOSED TIME OF IGNITION. GENERALLY POOR DISPERSION
IS ANTICIPATED...GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE BURN SITE TO THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST 7
                    TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200-3800 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....18.
LVORI...............DECREASING TO 2.

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID
SKY (%).........CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............81  82  82  83  83  79  75  72  71  70  68  68
RH..............49  47  47  46  47  52  60  66  68  73  78  78
20 FT WIND DIR..NE  E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD..6   8   8   8   7   6   5   3   2   1   1   1
20 FT WIND GUST.9  11  11  11  10   9

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-3200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-600 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 3
                    MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....18 DECREASING TO 2 AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LVORI...............5-6.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 6 TO
                    8 MPH BY NOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-3900 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 6
                    TO 9 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....21 INCREASING TO 33 IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............2.

$$
FORECASTER...CRISTALDI
REQUESTED BY...ROB ROSSMANITH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141018.JDSPF.01/MLB








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