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000
FNUS73 KMQT 020912
FWSMQT

SPOT FORECAST FOR GRAY RD  RX BURN...MI DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
512 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON MAY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...ONE MORE DRY DAY TODAY...THEN SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...DECAYING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS MORNING. THEN...A DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE SHOULD RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES RISING NEAR 60F WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES NEAR 35 PERCENT ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
FOR THE END THE WEEK.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55 AT IGNITION...MAX 62.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 31 PERCENT.
33-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS NORTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    NORTHWEST INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS NORTH AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    VARIABLE WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS BECOMING NORTH UP
                    TO 4 MPH BY LATE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    NORTHWEST 4 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 1 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    3 TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 11 TO 16 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (171) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (557)
                    INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (647) EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2800-4300 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 5600-7400 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO
                    7200-8000 FT AGL LATE DECREASING TO 5100 FT AGL
                    DECREASING TO 2600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.

TIME (EDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM
SKY (%).........34     43     42     30     20
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............55     59     61     61     56
RH..............48     40     33     31     40
33-FOOT WIND....N 5    N 5    NW 9   NW 10  NW 10
20-FOOT WIND....N 4    N 4    NW 7   NW 8   NW 8
WIND GUST.......7      7      13     14     14
VINDX KT-FT/100.171    201    405    647    284
TRANSPORT WIND..N 5    NW 3   NW 6   NW 10  NW 13
MIX HGT (FT)....4300   6700   8000   7200   2600
HAINES INDEX....3      4      4      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 34.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 96 PERCENT.
33-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 5 MPH OR LESS LATE.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST UP TO 4 MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 18 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-400 FT AGL.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.

TIME (EDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   6 AM
SKY (%).........14     8      5      5      19     33
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............53     46     40     37     35     35
RH..............46     62     77     88     95     96
33-FOOT WIND....NW 9   NW 9   W 5    W 5    W 5    SW 5
20-FOOT WIND....NW 7   NW 7   W 4    W 4    W 4    SW 4
WIND GUST.......10     10     6
VINDX KT-FT/100.57     0      28     30     38     20
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 13  NW 14  NW 14  W 14   W 17   W 18
MIX HGT (FT)....400    BLW100 200    300    300    100
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      3      3

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 39 PERCENT.
33-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH INCREASING TO 9 TO
                    14 MPH BY LATE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 6 MPH INCREASING TO 7 TO
                    11 MPH BY LATE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5...OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 30 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 13
                    TO 23 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (429) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1150) EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (1333) LATE DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (682) EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-4000 FT AGL
                    BY LATE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 5100-6400
                    FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2300-3900
                    FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.04 INCHES.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........48     48     58     79     85     89
WEATHER COV.....                     ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............40     51     58     59     60     57
RH..............83     57     43     39     41     47
33-FOOT WIND....SW 8   SW 8   SW 14  SW 16  SW 16  SW 13
20-FOOT WIND....SW 6   SW 6   SW 11  SW 13  SW 13  SW 10
WIND GUST.......12     12     18     21     21     20
VINDX KT-FT/100.40     258    684    1150   1271   682
TRANSPORT WIND..W 18   SW 20  SW 20  SW 21  SW 29  W 25
MIX HGT (FT)....300    1500   4000   6400   5100   3100
HAINES INDEX....3      5      4      3      4      4

$$
FORECASTER...VOSS
REQUESTED BY...ROB SHIELDS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160502.GRAYR.01/MQT





000
FNUS73 KMQT 020912
FWSMQT

SPOT FORECAST FOR GRAY RD  RX BURN...MI DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
512 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON MAY 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...ONE MORE DRY DAY TODAY...THEN SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...DECAYING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS MORNING. THEN...A DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE SHOULD RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY...INCREASING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES RISING NEAR 60F WILL PRODUCE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES NEAR 35 PERCENT ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. BLUSTERY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES
FOR THE END THE WEEK.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55 AT IGNITION...MAX 62.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 31 PERCENT.
33-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS NORTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    NORTHWEST INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS NORTH AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    VARIABLE WINDS 5 MPH OR LESS BECOMING NORTH UP
                    TO 4 MPH BY LATE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO
                    NORTHWEST 4 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 1 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    3 TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 11 TO 16 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
VENTILATION INDEX...FAIR (171) AT IGNITION. MAX...GOOD (557)
                    INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (647) EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2800-4300 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 5600-7400 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO
                    7200-8000 FT AGL LATE DECREASING TO 5100 FT AGL
                    DECREASING TO 2600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.

TIME (EDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM
SKY (%).........34     43     42     30     20
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............55     59     61     61     56
RH..............48     40     33     31     40
33-FOOT WIND....N 5    N 5    NW 9   NW 10  NW 10
20-FOOT WIND....N 4    N 4    NW 7   NW 8   NW 8
WIND GUST.......7      7      13     14     14
VINDX KT-FT/100.171    201    405    647    284
TRANSPORT WIND..N 5    NW 3   NW 6   NW 10  NW 13
MIX HGT (FT)....4300   6700   8000   7200   2600
HAINES INDEX....3      4      4      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 34.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 96 PERCENT.
33-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 5 MPH OR LESS LATE.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST UP TO 4 MPH LATE.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4...OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 18 MPH.
VENTILATION INDEX...POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-400 FT AGL.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.

TIME (EDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   6 AM
SKY (%).........14     8      5      5      19     33
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............53     46     40     37     35     35
RH..............46     62     77     88     95     96
33-FOOT WIND....NW 9   NW 9   W 5    W 5    W 5    SW 5
20-FOOT WIND....NW 7   NW 7   W 4    W 4    W 4    SW 4
WIND GUST.......10     10     6
VINDX KT-FT/100.57     0      28     30     38     20
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 13  NW 14  NW 14  W 14   W 17   W 18
MIX HGT (FT)....400    BLW100 200    300    300    100
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      3      3

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 39 PERCENT.
33-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH INCREASING TO 9 TO
                    14 MPH BY LATE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 6 MPH INCREASING TO 7 TO
                    11 MPH BY LATE MORNING.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5...OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 30 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 13
                    TO 23 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
VENTILATION INDEX...GOOD (429) INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (1150) EARLY
                    IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO EXCELLENT
                    (1333) LATE DECREASING TO EXCELLENT (682) EARLY
                    IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-4000 FT AGL
                    BY LATE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 5100-6400
                    FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2300-3900
                    FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.04 INCHES.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........48     48     58     79     85     89
WEATHER COV.....                     ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............40     51     58     59     60     57
RH..............83     57     43     39     41     47
33-FOOT WIND....SW 8   SW 8   SW 14  SW 16  SW 16  SW 13
20-FOOT WIND....SW 6   SW 6   SW 11  SW 13  SW 13  SW 10
WIND GUST.......12     12     18     21     21     20
VINDX KT-FT/100.40     258    684    1150   1271   682
TRANSPORT WIND..W 18   SW 20  SW 20  SW 21  SW 29  W 25
MIX HGT (FT)....300    1500   4000   6400   5100   3100
HAINES INDEX....3      5      4      3      4      4

$$
FORECASTER...VOSS
REQUESTED BY...ROB SHIELDS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160502.GRAYR.01/MQT





000
FNUS73 KMQT 011305
FWSMQT

SPOT FORECAST FOR 15 MILE ROAD...MICHIGAN DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
905 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0834 EDT ON MAY 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER HUDSON BAY AND A TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN
OHIO. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT AROUND 10
MPH...ONLY A SMALL LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED AT THE WILDFIRE
LOCATION WHICH IS MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LAKE BREEZES OFF OF WHITEFISH
BAY AND LAKE HURON. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE EAST
AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
THEY DIMINISH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 59 WITH A
MINIMUM RELATIVE VALUE OF 34 PERCENT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....44 AT REQUEST...MAX 59.
MIN HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT AT REQUEST...MIN 34 PERCENT.
33-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS NORTHEAST AT 12 MPH AT
                    REQUEST...OTHERWISE EAST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH
                    SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDS NORTHEAST AT 9 MPH AT REQUEST...OTHERWISE
                    EAST WINDS 4 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    UP TO 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM
SKY (%).........88     83     79     74     78     81
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............41     48     53     57     59     57
RH..............77     61     47     37     34     37
33-FOOT WIND....NE 12  NE 12  E 12   E 9    E 9    NE 7
20-FOOT WIND....NE 10  NE 10  E 10   E 7    E 7    NE 6
WIND GUST.......16     16     16     12     12     8

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 39.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 85 PERCENT.
33-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 4 TO 9 MPH DECREASING TO 5 MPH OR
                    LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 4 MPH BY LATE EVENING.

TIME (EDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   6 AM
SKY (%).........85     64     43     22     24     26
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............51     47     44     41     39     39
RH..............49     58     68     75     82     85
33-FOOT WIND....N 6    N 6    N 5    N 5    N 5    N 5
20-FOOT WIND....N 5    N 5    N 4    N 4    N 4    N 4
WIND GUST.......

$$
FORECASTER...JLB
REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL PINE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160501.15MIL.01/MQT





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