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000
FNUS73 KPAH 292039
FWSPAH

SPOT FORECAST FOR MAINTZ BURN...MISSOURI DEPT CONSERVATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
339 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON OCTOBER 30.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THIS IS A PRELIMINARY PRESCRIBED BURN FORECAST. AN INTERIM FORECAST
WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO THE ACTUAL PRESCRIBED BURN TIME...SO IF
A SECOND AND FINAL UPDATE IS REQUEST FOR THIS BURN...FURTHER COORDINATION
SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITH THIS OFFICE PRIOR TO 7 AM CDT.


LOOKING AT THE GENERAL WEATHER PICTURE...

TONIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST
ACROSS THE HEARTLAND.

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING...BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
HEARTLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.

NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING LONG ENOUGH TO KILL OFF ANY FURTHER GROWTH OF FINE
FUELS ACROSS THE HEARTLAND. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.

MINIMUM DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........56 AT IGNITION...MAX 62.
RH..................53 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1000-2800
                    FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 13 TO
                    21 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
WEATHER COV.....    CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............56  58  60  61  61  60  57
RH..............53  49  46  46  48  51  62
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..4   4   5   5   5   4   3
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10  10  5
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.7 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.16  20  20  21  21  21  21
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   3   3

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) TO MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 42.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 6 TO 7 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 22 TO 31 MPH INCREASING TO NORTH 35 TO 43
                    MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............53     49     47     46     44     43
RH..............74     89     96     96     100    96
20 FT WIND......S 2    S 2    SW 2   NW 2   N 5    N 6
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      5      10     15
MIX HGT (FT)....1500   1300   1300   1400   1800   2400
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 22  W 26   NW 31  N 37   N 40   N 43
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      3      2

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 50.
RH..................MIN 33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 35 TO 44 MPH DECREASING TO 29 TO 32
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM      10 AM     1 PM      4 PM
SKY (%).........PCLDY     MCLDY     MCLEAR    PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TEMP............42        46        48        49
RH..............93        73        47        39
20 FT WIND......N 6G15    N 10G25   N 11G25   N 12G25
MIX HGT (FT)....3200      4300      5100      4700
TRANSPORT WIND..N 44      N 44      N 41      NW 35
CWR.............0         0         0         0
HAINES INDEX....2         2         3         3

$$
FORECASTER...SMITH
REQUESTED BY...MATT BOWYER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141030.MAINT.01/PAH






000
FNUS73 KPAH 292039
FWSPAH

SPOT FORECAST FOR MAINTZ BURN...MISSOURI DEPT CONSERVATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
339 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON OCTOBER 30.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THIS IS A PRELIMINARY PRESCRIBED BURN FORECAST. AN INTERIM FORECAST
WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO THE ACTUAL PRESCRIBED BURN TIME...SO IF
A SECOND AND FINAL UPDATE IS REQUEST FOR THIS BURN...FURTHER COORDINATION
SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITH THIS OFFICE PRIOR TO 7 AM CDT.


LOOKING AT THE GENERAL WEATHER PICTURE...

TONIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FROST
ACROSS THE HEARTLAND.

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING...BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAIN TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
HEARTLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.

NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING LONG ENOUGH TO KILL OFF ANY FURTHER GROWTH OF FINE
FUELS ACROSS THE HEARTLAND. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING.

MINIMUM DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE BEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SPRINKLES IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........56 AT IGNITION...MAX 62.
RH..................53 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1000-2800
                    FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 9 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 13 TO
                    21 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
WEATHER COV.....    CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............56  58  60  61  61  60  57
RH..............53  49  46  46  48  51  62
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..4   4   5   5   5   4   3
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  10  10  5
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.7 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.16  20  20  21  21  21  21
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   3   3

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) TO MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 42.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 6 TO 7 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 22 TO 31 MPH INCREASING TO NORTH 35 TO 43
                    MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............53     49     47     46     44     43
RH..............74     89     96     96     100    96
20 FT WIND......S 2    S 2    SW 2   NW 2   N 5    N 6
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      5      10     15
MIX HGT (FT)....1500   1300   1300   1400   1800   2400
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 22  W 26   NW 31  N 37   N 40   N 43
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      3      2

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 50.
RH..................MIN 33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 8 TO 15 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 35 TO 44 MPH DECREASING TO 29 TO 32
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM      10 AM     1 PM      4 PM
SKY (%).........PCLDY     MCLDY     MCLEAR    PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TEMP............42        46        48        49
RH..............93        73        47        39
20 FT WIND......N 6G15    N 10G25   N 11G25   N 12G25
MIX HGT (FT)....3200      4300      5100      4700
TRANSPORT WIND..N 44      N 44      N 41      NW 35
CWR.............0         0         0         0
HAINES INDEX....2         2         3         3

$$
FORECASTER...SMITH
REQUESTED BY...MATT BOWYER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141030.MAINT.01/PAH






000
FNUS73 KPAH 291304
FWSPAH

SPOT FORECAST FOR VC POLLINATOR BURN...USFWS CRAB ORCHARD NWR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
804 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON OCTOBER 29.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...DRY AND COOLER AIR
WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT GOOD MIXING TODAY
WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 35 PERCENT. A WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........57 AT IGNITION...MAX 61.
RH..................45 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...
                    OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO
                    8 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO
                    3300-4900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING
                    TO 2000 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 18
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............57  58  59  60  60  58  54
RH..............45  40  38  36  39  42  50
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   6   6   6   6   5
20 FT WIND GUST.10  15  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.7 4.6 4.9 4.8 4.3 3.3 2.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.16  18  18  18  16  14  12
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX....4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 37.
RH..................MAX 92 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 2 TO 9 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
WEATHER COV.....                                   PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   FROST
TEMP............50     46     43     41     40     39
RH..............60     72     78     84     84     88
20 FT WIND......NW 4   N 1    N 0    N 0    N 0    N 0
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....900    300    200    200    200    100
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 9   NW 5   NW 3   NW 3   NW 3   W 3
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4      4

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 62.
RH..................MIN 41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1300-2500 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM      10 AM     1 PM      4 PM
SKY (%).........PCLDY     PCLDY     MCLDY     MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....FROST     NONE      NONE      NONE
TEMP............38        49        58        61
RH..............88        59        45        46
20 FT WIND......SE 1      S 2G5     S 2G5     S 3G5
MIX HGT (FT)....200       1500      2400      2300
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 2      S 5       S 7       S 12
CWR.............0         0         0         0
HAINES INDEX....4         4         4         5

$$
FORECASTER...WFO PADUCAH
REQUESTED BY...DAVID JONES
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141029.VCPOL.02/PAH









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