000
FNUS75 KPUB 211259
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR BACA REFUGE...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
659 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL MODERATE AND
BECOME MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE STATE. ISOLATED HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS STAYING MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND PERSISTS INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
FIRE DANGER TO THE AREA WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE BURN SITE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(41 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400 UNTIL 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67F.
MIN HUMIDITY........16-21 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OF 2-5 MPH UNTIL
                    1200...THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 24 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL UNTIL 0800. 11500 FT AGL AFTER
                    0900.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN 2 UNTIL 1700...THEN 1.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(34 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41F.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 6-12 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE 3-6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 0200.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(36 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1500.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75F.
MIN HUMIDITY........10-15 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........LIGHT AND VARIABLE 3-6 MPH UTIL 1200...THEN
                    SOUTHWEST 9-14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 13500 FT AGL AFTER
                    1000.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. EXCELLENT AFTER 1400.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1500...THEN 2.

$$
FORECASTER...WANKOWSKI
REQUESTED BY...ANDREW SCHELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130522.BACAR.01/PUB

000
FNUS75 KPUB 201445
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR BUFFALO PASS RX...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
845 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BURN SCAR TODAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO COLORADO FOR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR 60
DEGREES EXPECTED.  HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO LOWER TO THE MID TEENS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN...FLOW SHOULD
TRANSITION WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MAIN THREATS BEING LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL
                    0900...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53F.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 9 MPH THROUGH 1000 BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST 8 TO 12 WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 8000 FT AGL AFTER 0900.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. VERY GOOD AFTER 0900.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY(4 PERCENT). ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35F.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......NORTHWEST AROUND 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 0100. POOR AFTER 0500.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2200...THEN 2 UNTIL 2300...THEN 1.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY(40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55F.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........NORTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 9 MPH BECOMING WEST 10
                    TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AFTER 1200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN 11000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...MOZLEY
REQUESTED BY...DAVE CARR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20130522.BUFFA.01/PUB