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000
FNUS75 KPUB 201445
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHAVANO...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
845 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO WILL SPIN A LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BURN SITE TODAY...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NEARBY MOUNTAINS
WILL BE THE RESULT.  MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.  TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT VENTILATION RATES.  POOR
TO FAIR VENTILATION EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND NOON AND THEN
GOOD.  HUMIDITIES MAY ALSO BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN BURNING
TODAY WITH RH VALUES ONLY DIPPING INTO THE 30S.

TUESDAY...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE
AND WINDS TO THE SITE IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE RESULT WILL BE
A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND ALSO BETTER VENTILATION.  RATES ON TUESDAY
WILL START OUT POOR TO FAIR IN THE MORNING...BUT THEN MOVE
INTO THE VERY GOOD RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON.  BECAUSE OF THE
INCREASED MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS
IN THE AFTERNOON...RHS MAY DROP BELOW 10 PERCENT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62F.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-39 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........VARIABLE 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY 5-10
                    MPH 1000-1100.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 3 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN SOUTH
                    AROUND 9 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40F.
MAX HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHEAST AROUND 4 MPH UNTIL 2300...THEN WEST
                    AROUND 6 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2000...THEN POOR.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AFTER 0900 UNTIL 1200...THEN ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58F.
MIN HUMIDITY........0-10 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........VARIABLE 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH
                    1000-1100.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    VERY GOOD.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...BEN INGRAM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20141020.SHAVA.01/PUB




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