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000
FNUS75 KRIW 051416
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HADSEL...BLM RAD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
816 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AS LOW PRESSURE...SURFACE AND ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN...THE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE BURN AREA WILL SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE MORNING.  THESE WINDS
WILL BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES.
BY 1300 PM MDT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
BETWEEN 1800 PM MDT AND 2000 PM MDT...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STEADY.
THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLD TEMPERATURES
VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF SNOW
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...C.BAKER

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-72.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-22 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10
                    TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 18 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8100 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (44800 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (133300 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-46.
MAX HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH AND GUSTY EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE 5 TO 8 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL IN THE EVENING THEN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (400-49200 KNOT-FT).

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-35 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING EAST AROUND
                    11 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING
                    TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.30 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST NORTHEAST BY 0930 AM MDT IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL NOON THEN GOOD (62900 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN
SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 19 MPH.
.SATURDAY...
COOLER. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
EAST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH.
.SUNDAY...
CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...C.BAKER
REQUESTED BY...HEATH MORGAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160506.HADSE.01/RIW





000
FNUS75 KRIW 051416
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR HADSEL...BLM RAD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
816 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON MAY 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AS LOW PRESSURE...SURFACE AND ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN...THE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE BURN AREA WILL SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO THE EAST NORTHEAST EARLY IN THE MORNING.  THESE WINDS
WILL BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES.
BY 1300 PM MDT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
BETWEEN 1800 PM MDT AND 2000 PM MDT...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STEADY.
THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLD TEMPERATURES
VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE THREAT OF SNOW
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT.


...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...C.BAKER

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-72.
MIN HUMIDITY........19-22 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10
                    TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 18 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8100 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (44800 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD
                    (133300 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-46.
MAX HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH AND GUSTY EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING BECOMING DOWNSLOPE 5 TO 8 MPH.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL IN THE EVENING THEN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (400-49200 KNOT-FT).

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-35 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 5-9 MPH BECOMING EAST AROUND
                    11 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING
                    TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.30 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    EAST NORTHEAST BY 0930 AM MDT IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL NOON THEN GOOD (62900 KNOT-FT).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY NIGHT...
SHOWERS LIKELY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN
SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 19 MPH.
.SATURDAY...
COOLER. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S.
EAST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH.
.SUNDAY...
CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...C.BAKER
REQUESTED BY...HEATH MORGAN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160506.HADSE.01/RIW





000
FNUS75 KRIW 041655
FWSRIW

SPOT FORECAST FOR S COTTONWOOD RX...USFS BTF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1055 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1120 MDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY TODAY.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY OUTFLOW WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS LITTLE RAIN WILL MAKE IT TO
THE GROUND. SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES.

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS...
...HAINES INDEX IS HIGH LEVEL HAINES BOTH DAY AND NIGHT...

FORECASTER...JONES

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-68.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-24 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 3 TO 7 MPH...BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH BETWEEN 1230L AND 1430L.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL BY 1500L.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....INCREASING TO GOOD BY 1400L.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-34.
MAX HUMIDITY........69-73 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH UNTIL
                    1900L...THEN BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                    4 TO 7 MPH BY 2100L.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.ZERO PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 6000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900L...THEN
                    DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL BY 2200L.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900L...THEN BECOMING POOR BY 2100L.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 1100L...
                    THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) BY
                    1400L. WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400L
                    ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-69.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-24 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 5 TO 9 MPH UNTIL 1100L...THEN
                    GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH BY 1400L.
                    OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH AFTER 1400L. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
RIDGE TOP WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1400...THEN LAL 2.
CHC OF WETTING RAIN.5 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 2000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900L...THEN
                    GRADUALLY INCREASING TO AROUND 7000 FT AGL
                    BY 1400L.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 16 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900L...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING TO
                    VERY GOOD BY 1400L.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY NIGHT...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...
SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS NEAR 60.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
.SATURDAY...
COOLER. CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 50. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 50. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JONES
REQUESTED BY...MIKE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160504.SCOTT.01/RIW





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