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000
FNUS71 KRNK 041309
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR LICK MOUNTAIN RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
909 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0920 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE PER MOIST SOUTHWEST WINDS. WHILE TODAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE AT THE BURN SITE...CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STRAY STORM AT OR NEAR THE BURN
SITE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND
ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND GREATER
CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT AROUND TO A MORE EAST OR NORTHEAST
DIRECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS MID WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH.
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 0 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING WEST 10 TO 12
                    MPH LATE.

TIME (EDT)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............25  32  39  44  47  49  50  48
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................60  64  67  70  73  75  77  76
RH..................49  42  39  34  31  29  27  28
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......2   3   4   4   4   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.4 4.9 5.7 6.4 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....5   7   8   9   9   10  12  12
CWR.................0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH...BECOMING WEST 2 TO 3
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............44  39  33  30  28  26  26  26  26  25  25  26
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................74  71  68  65  63  60  59  58  56  56  55  54
RH..................31  37  43  48  52  57  60  63  66  70  74  80
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......6.1 4.6 3.1 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....12  12  10  8   6   3   2   2   3   3   2   2
CWR.................0   10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   10  10  0

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS LATE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 1 TO 9 MPH...INCREASING TO 7 TO 13 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............27  28  31  34  39  43  51  61  68  73  74  74
WEATHER COV.........                            ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE........                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                                        SCT SCT
TEMP................52  52  57  60  64  67  69  71  73  74  75  76
RH..................89  93  81  72  63  56  53  49  46  45  44  43
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
20 FT WIND SPD......1   1   0   2   3   4   4   4   4   4   5   4
20 FT WIND GUST.....            5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.5 2.8 4.1 4.7 5.2 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....1   1   1   5   9   13  13  12  9   8   8   7
CWR.................10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  30  30  30

$$
FORECASTER...SLEIGHTER
REQUESTED BY...PATRICIA FELTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.LICKM.02/RNK




000
FNUS71 KRNK 041309
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR LICK MOUNTAIN RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
909 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0920 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE PER MOIST SOUTHWEST WINDS. WHILE TODAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE AT THE BURN SITE...CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STRAY STORM AT OR NEAR THE BURN
SITE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND
ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND GREATER
CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT AROUND TO A MORE EAST OR NORTHEAST
DIRECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS MID WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH.
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 0 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING WEST 10 TO 12
                    MPH LATE.

TIME (EDT)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............25  32  39  44  47  49  50  48
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................60  64  67  70  73  75  77  76
RH..................49  42  39  34  31  29  27  28
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......2   3   4   4   4   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.4 4.9 5.7 6.4 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....5   7   8   9   9   10  12  12
CWR.................0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH...BECOMING WEST 2 TO 3
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............44  39  33  30  28  26  26  26  26  25  25  26
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................74  71  68  65  63  60  59  58  56  56  55  54
RH..................31  37  43  48  52  57  60  63  66  70  74  80
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......6.1 4.6 3.1 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....12  12  10  8   6   3   2   2   3   3   2   2
CWR.................0   10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   10  10  0

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS LATE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 1 TO 9 MPH...INCREASING TO 7 TO 13 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............27  28  31  34  39  43  51  61  68  73  74  74
WEATHER COV.........                            ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE........                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                                        SCT SCT
TEMP................52  52  57  60  64  67  69  71  73  74  75  76
RH..................89  93  81  72  63  56  53  49  46  45  44  43
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
20 FT WIND SPD......1   1   0   2   3   4   4   4   4   4   5   4
20 FT WIND GUST.....            5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.5 2.8 4.1 4.7 5.2 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....1   1   1   5   9   13  13  12  9   8   8   7
CWR.................10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  30  30  30

$$
FORECASTER...SLEIGHTER
REQUESTED BY...PATRICIA FELTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.LICKM.02/RNK




000
FNUS71 KRNK 041309
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR LICK MOUNTAIN RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
909 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0920 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE PER MOIST SOUTHWEST WINDS. WHILE TODAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE AT THE BURN SITE...CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STRAY STORM AT OR NEAR THE BURN
SITE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND
ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND GREATER
CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT AROUND TO A MORE EAST OR NORTHEAST
DIRECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS MID WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH.
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 0 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING WEST 10 TO 12
                    MPH LATE.

TIME (EDT)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............25  32  39  44  47  49  50  48
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................60  64  67  70  73  75  77  76
RH..................49  42  39  34  31  29  27  28
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......2   3   4   4   4   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.4 4.9 5.7 6.4 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....5   7   8   9   9   10  12  12
CWR.................0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH...BECOMING WEST 2 TO 3
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............44  39  33  30  28  26  26  26  26  25  25  26
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................74  71  68  65  63  60  59  58  56  56  55  54
RH..................31  37  43  48  52  57  60  63  66  70  74  80
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......6.1 4.6 3.1 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....12  12  10  8   6   3   2   2   3   3   2   2
CWR.................0   10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   10  10  0

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS LATE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 1 TO 9 MPH...INCREASING TO 7 TO 13 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............27  28  31  34  39  43  51  61  68  73  74  74
WEATHER COV.........                            ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE........                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                                        SCT SCT
TEMP................52  52  57  60  64  67  69  71  73  74  75  76
RH..................89  93  81  72  63  56  53  49  46  45  44  43
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
20 FT WIND SPD......1   1   0   2   3   4   4   4   4   4   5   4
20 FT WIND GUST.....            5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.5 2.8 4.1 4.7 5.2 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....1   1   1   5   9   13  13  12  9   8   8   7
CWR.................10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  30  30  30

$$
FORECASTER...SLEIGHTER
REQUESTED BY...PATRICIA FELTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.LICKM.02/RNK





000
FNUS71 KRNK 041309
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR LICK MOUNTAIN RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
909 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0920 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE PER MOIST SOUTHWEST WINDS. WHILE TODAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION FREE AT THE BURN SITE...CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STRAY STORM AT OR NEAR THE BURN
SITE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING.

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND
ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND GREATER
CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT AROUND TO A MORE EAST OR NORTHEAST
DIRECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS MID WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH.
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 0 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING WEST 10 TO 12
                    MPH LATE.

TIME (EDT)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............25  32  39  44  47  49  50  48
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................60  64  67  70  73  75  77  76
RH..................49  42  39  34  31  29  27  28
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......2   3   4   4   4   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.4 4.9 5.7 6.4 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....5   7   8   9   9   10  12  12
CWR.................0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH...BECOMING WEST 2 TO 3
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............44  39  33  30  28  26  26  26  26  25  25  26
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................74  71  68  65  63  60  59  58  56  56  55  54
RH..................31  37  43  48  52  57  60  63  66  70  74  80
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD......4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   1
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......6.1 4.6 3.1 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....12  12  10  8   6   3   2   2   3   3   2   2
CWR.................0   10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   10  10  0

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS LATE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 1 TO 9 MPH...INCREASING TO 7 TO 13 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............27  28  31  34  39  43  51  61  68  73  74  74
WEATHER COV.........                            ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE........                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                                        SCT SCT
TEMP................52  52  57  60  64  67  69  71  73  74  75  76
RH..................89  93  81  72  63  56  53  49  46  45  44  43
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
20 FT WIND SPD......1   1   0   2   3   4   4   4   4   4   5   4
20 FT WIND GUST.....            5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.5 2.8 4.1 4.7 5.2 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....1   1   1   5   9   13  13  12  9   8   8   7
CWR.................10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  30  30  30

$$
FORECASTER...SLEIGHTER
REQUESTED BY...PATRICIA FELTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.LICKM.02/RNK





000
FNUS71 KRNK 041232
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR RENDEZVOUS RX...NORTH CAROLINA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
832 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE PER MOIST SOUTHWEST WINDS...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE PEAK HEATING HOURS EACH DAY.

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND
ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO SHIFT AROUND TO A MORE EAST OR NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS MID WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 7 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............55     58     63
WEATHER COV.........       S CHC  CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............              ISOLTD
TEMP................69     74     76
RH..................46     41     37
20 FT WIND..........SW 3   S 5    S 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........4000   7200   7200
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 7   SW 6   SW 7
CWR.................10     20     30

$$
FORECASTER...SLEIGHTER
REQUESTED BY...JUSTIN QUERY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.RENDE.01/RNK





000
FNUS71 KRNK 041232
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR RENDEZVOUS RX...NORTH CAROLINA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
832 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
FAIR WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE PER MOIST SOUTHWEST WINDS...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE PEAK HEATING HOURS EACH DAY.

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND
ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO SHIFT AROUND TO A MORE EAST OR NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS MID WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 7 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............55     58     63
WEATHER COV.........       S CHC  CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............              ISOLTD
TEMP................69     74     76
RH..................46     41     37
20 FT WIND..........SW 3   S 5    S 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........4000   7200   7200
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 7   SW 6   SW 7
CWR.................10     20     30

$$
FORECASTER...SLEIGHTER
REQUESTED BY...JUSTIN QUERY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.RENDE.01/RNK




000
FNUS71 KRNK 041030
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR YADKIN RIVER RX...NC STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
630 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALONG
WITH WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MIXING.

MOISTURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE PER THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...
SO CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE PEAK HEATING PART OF THE AFTERNOON...3-5PM.

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR
THREAT OF A LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT CLOUD COVER).
                    A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORM LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 4
                    TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4 TO 7 MPH...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)          NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............44     49     59
WEATHER COV.........              S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
TSTM COV............
TEMP................72     77     80
RH..................46     39     35
20 FT WIND..........SW 4   SW 5   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)........4000   6900   7300
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 10  SW 8   SW 10
CWR.................0      10     20

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT BY
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 9 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............64     63     60     55     48     40
WEATHER COV.........S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................78     72     68     65     62     61
RH..................39     50     59     66     70     75
20 FT WIND..........S 4    S 2    S 2    SW 2   SW 2   SW 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     5      5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........5100   300    300    300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 9   S 3    S 2    S 2    SW 2   SW 2
CWR.................20     10     10     10     10     10

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT CLOUD COVER).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 4 TO
                    7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 4 TO 9 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............32     24     18     21     38     55
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................58     62     69     73     77     79
RH..................84     74     59     50     45     43
20 FT WIND..........S 1    S 0    SW 2   SW 4   S 4    S 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....              5      5      10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........300    400    1200   2900   5400   5900
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 1   S 0    SW 3   SW 6   S 6    S 9
CWR.................10     0      0      0      0      10

$$
FORECASTER...MANUEL
REQUESTED BY...MATT WINDSOR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.YADKI.01/RNK





000
FNUS71 KRNK 041030
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR YADKIN RIVER RX...NC STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
630 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALONG
WITH WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MIXING.

MOISTURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE PER THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...
SO CAN`T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE PEAK HEATING PART OF THE AFTERNOON...3-5PM.

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH A SIMILAR
THREAT OF A LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT CLOUD COVER).
                    A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORM LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 4
                    TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 7600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4 TO 7 MPH...INCREASING TO 8 TO 12
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)          NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............44     49     59
WEATHER COV.........              S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
TSTM COV............
TEMP................72     77     80
RH..................46     39     35
20 FT WIND..........SW 4   SW 5   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)........4000   6900   7300
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 10  SW 8   SW 10
CWR.................0      10     20

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT BY
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 9 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............64     63     60     55     48     40
WEATHER COV.........S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................78     72     68     65     62     61
RH..................39     50     59     66     70     75
20 FT WIND..........S 4    S 2    S 2    SW 2   SW 2   SW 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     5      5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........5100   300    300    300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 9   S 3    S 2    S 2    SW 2   SW 2
CWR.................20     10     10     10     10     10

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT CLOUD COVER).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 4 TO
                    7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 4 TO 9 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............32     24     18     21     38     55
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................58     62     69     73     77     79
RH..................84     74     59     50     45     43
20 FT WIND..........S 1    S 0    SW 2   SW 4   S 4    S 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....              5      5      10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........300    400    1200   2900   5400   5900
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 1   S 0    SW 3   SW 6   S 6    S 9
CWR.................10     0      0      0      0      10

$$
FORECASTER...MANUEL
REQUESTED BY...MATT WINDSOR
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.YADKI.01/RNK




000
FNUS71 KRNK 040919
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR JACKSON RIVER...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
519 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
VERY GOOD BURNING CONDITIONS TODAY...ALL PARAMETERS LOOK WITHIN
PRESCRIPTION.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS CENTERED NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER TODAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MIXING...WIND FLOW OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST.

ANOTHER VERY WARM...MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE PER THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS...SO EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY
SHOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND
ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO SHIFT AROUND TO A MORE EAST OR NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS MID WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT CLOUD COVER).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 4 TO 7 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL AT 1000...INCREASING TO 8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 14 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............6      9      25     39     48     54
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................48     54     62     68     74     78
RH..................90     77     48     35     30     27
20 FT WIND..........W 0    W 0    SW 2   SW 3   SW 4   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....              5      10     10     15
MIX HGT (FT)........300    300    2500   5000   7400   7900
TRANSPORT WIND......W 2    W 0    W 5    SW 9   SW 11  SW 14
CWR.................0      0      0      0      0      5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT CLOUD COVER).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH...BECOMING WEST 2 TO
                    4 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............48     34     27     25     25     23
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................75     70     66     62     60     59
RH..................31     42     52     61     68     74
20 FT WIND..........SW 5   SW 3   SW 3   W 2    W 2    W 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........6700   4000   1500   300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 13  SW 10  SW 6   W 2    W 3    W 3
CWR.................5      10     10     0      0      10

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 4
                    TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4 TO 9 MPH...INCREASING TO 8 TO 13 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............24     28     36     49     60     59
WEATHER COV.........                            ISOLTD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............                                   SCTTRD
TEMP................56     60     66     71     75     76
RH..................84     74     60     51     46     45
20 FT WIND..........W 2    W 1    W 2    W 4    W 4    SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.....5             5      10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........300    300    3000   5000   6200   6700
TRANSPORT WIND......W 2    W 2    W 9    W 13   W 9    W 8
CWR.................0      10     10     10     20     30

$$
FORECASTER...MANUEL
REQUESTED BY...STEVE SMESTAD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.JACKS.03/RNK




000
FNUS71 KRNK 040919
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR JACKSON RIVER...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
519 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
VERY GOOD BURNING CONDITIONS TODAY...ALL PARAMETERS LOOK WITHIN
PRESCRIPTION.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS CENTERED NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER TODAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MIXING...WIND FLOW OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST.

ANOTHER VERY WARM...MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE PER THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST
WINDS...SO EXPECT MORE CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY
SHOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND
ON WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL ALSO SHIFT AROUND TO A MORE EAST OR NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS MID WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT CLOUD COVER).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST 4 TO 7 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL AT 1000...INCREASING TO 8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 14 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............6      9      25     39     48     54
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................48     54     62     68     74     78
RH..................90     77     48     35     30     27
20 FT WIND..........W 0    W 0    SW 2   SW 3   SW 4   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....              5      10     10     15
MIX HGT (FT)........300    300    2500   5000   7400   7900
TRANSPORT WIND......W 2    W 0    W 5    SW 9   SW 11  SW 14
CWR.................0      0      0      0      0      5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT CLOUD COVER).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH...BECOMING WEST 2 TO
                    4 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............48     34     27     25     25     23
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................75     70     66     62     60     59
RH..................31     42     52     61     68     74
20 FT WIND..........SW 5   SW 3   SW 3   W 2    W 2    W 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     10     5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........6700   4000   1500   300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 13  SW 10  SW 6   W 2    W 3    W 3
CWR.................5      10     10     0      0      10

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 4
                    TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4 TO 9 MPH...INCREASING TO 8 TO 13 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............24     28     36     49     60     59
WEATHER COV.........                            ISOLTD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............                                   SCTTRD
TEMP................56     60     66     71     75     76
RH..................84     74     60     51     46     45
20 FT WIND..........W 2    W 1    W 2    W 4    W 4    SW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.....5             5      10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........300    300    3000   5000   6200   6700
TRANSPORT WIND......W 2    W 2    W 9    W 13   W 9    W 8
CWR.................0      10     10     10     20     30

$$
FORECASTER...MANUEL
REQUESTED BY...STEVE SMESTAD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.JACKS.03/RNK





000
FNUS71 KRNK 032250
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR JACKSON RIVER...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
650 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN SLOWLY TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY
REMAINS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.

AT IGNITION TIME AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE BURN SITE...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-3 DEGREES COOLER AT 3000 FEET. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL START OUT AROUND 40 PERCENT...DROPPING TO AROUND 25 TO 28 PERCENT
BY 2 PM EDT. WIND WILL BE SOUTHWEST 5-7 MPH AT 2500 FEET INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 MPH AT 3000 FEET ELEVATION.

THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHILE UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN LIMITED...THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AND COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 1 TO 8 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............32  28  23  19  17  17  17  17  16  14  11  8
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................74  68  65  63  61  58  57  56  55  54  53  52
RH..................25  31  35  38  41  46  49  53  58  62  66  71
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
20 FT WIND SPD......2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   0   0   0
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......7.3 6.0 4.7 3.2 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....8   8   7   6   5   2   2   1   1   0   0   0
CWR.................0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH AT 8 AM...INCREASING TO
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 13 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............6   5   5   9   14  30  43  51  55  55  53  51
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................51  49  51  57  63  69  74  76  77  77  78  77
RH..................78  84  79  61  49  38  31  29  28  27  27  28
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......0   0   0   0   1   2   3   4   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....                    5   5   10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 2.2 3.7 5.2 6.4 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.1 8.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....0   0   0   2   5   7   8   8   8   9   9   10
CWR.................0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10

$$
FORECASTER...BEASLEY
REQUESTED BY...STEVE SMESTAD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.JACKS.02/RNK





000
FNUS71 KRNK 032250
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR JACKSON RIVER...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
650 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN SLOWLY TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY
REMAINS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.

AT IGNITION TIME AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE BURN SITE...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-3 DEGREES COOLER AT 3000 FEET. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL START OUT AROUND 40 PERCENT...DROPPING TO AROUND 25 TO 28 PERCENT
BY 2 PM EDT. WIND WILL BE SOUTHWEST 5-7 MPH AT 2500 FEET INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 MPH AT 3000 FEET ELEVATION.

THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHILE UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN LIMITED...THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AND COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.
MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 1 TO 8 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............32  28  23  19  17  17  17  17  16  14  11  8
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................74  68  65  63  61  58  57  56  55  54  53  52
RH..................25  31  35  38  41  46  49  53  58  62  66  71
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
20 FT WIND SPD......2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   0   0   0
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......7.3 6.0 4.7 3.2 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....8   8   7   6   5   2   2   1   1   0   0   0
CWR.................0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH AT 8 AM...INCREASING TO
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 13 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............6   5   5   9   14  30  43  51  55  55  53  51
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................51  49  51  57  63  69  74  76  77  77  78  77
RH..................78  84  79  61  49  38  31  29  28  27  27  28
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......0   0   0   0   1   2   3   4   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....                    5   5   10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 2.2 3.7 5.2 6.4 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.1 8.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....0   0   0   2   5   7   8   8   8   9   9   10
CWR.................0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10

$$
FORECASTER...BEASLEY
REQUESTED BY...STEVE SMESTAD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.JACKS.02/RNK




000
FNUS71 KRNK 032152
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR JACKSON RIVER...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
552 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN SLOWLY TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY
REMAINS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.

AT IGNITION TIME AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE BURN SITE...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-3 DEGREES COOLER AT 3000 FEET. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL START OUT AROUND 40 PERCENT...DROPPING TO AROUND 25 TO 28 PERCENT
BY 2 PM EDT. WIND WILL BE SOUTHWEST 5-7 MPH AT 2500 FEET INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 MPH AT 3000 FEET ELEVATION.

THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHILE UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN LIMITED...THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AND COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 49.
RH..................MAX 84 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 1 TO 8 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............32  28  23  19  17  17  17  17  16  14  11  8
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................74  68  65  63  61  58  57  56  55  54  53  52
RH..................25  31  35  38  41  46  49  53  58  62  66  71
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
20 FT WIND SPD......2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   0   0   0
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......7.3 6.0 4.7 3.2 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....8   8   7   6   5   2   2   1   1   0   0   0
CWR.................0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 78.
RH..................MIN 27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH AT 8 AM...INCREASING TO
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 13 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............6   5   5   9   14  30  43  51  55  55  53  51
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................51  49  51  57  63  69  74  76  77  77  78  77
RH..................78  84  79  61  49  38  31  29  28  27  27  28
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......0   0   0   0   1   2   3   4   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....                    5   5   10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 2.2 3.7 5.2 6.4 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.1 8.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....0   0   0   2   5   7   8   8   8   9   9   10
CWR.................0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10

$$
FORECASTER...BEASLEY
REQUESTED BY...STEVE SMESTAD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150503.JACKS.02/RNK





000
FNUS71 KRNK 032152
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR JACKSON RIVER...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
552 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN SLOWLY TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY
REMAINS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.

AT IGNITION TIME AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE BURN SITE...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-3 DEGREES COOLER AT 3000 FEET. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL START OUT AROUND 40 PERCENT...DROPPING TO AROUND 25 TO 28 PERCENT
BY 2 PM EDT. WIND WILL BE SOUTHWEST 5-7 MPH AT 2500 FEET INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 MPH AT 3000 FEET ELEVATION.

THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHILE UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN LIMITED...THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AND COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 49.
RH..................MAX 84 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 1 TO 8 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............32  28  23  19  17  17  17  17  16  14  11  8
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................74  68  65  63  61  58  57  56  55  54  53  52
RH..................25  31  35  38  41  46  49  53  58  62  66  71
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
20 FT WIND SPD......2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   0   0   0
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......7.3 6.0 4.7 3.2 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W
TRANSP WIND SPD.....8   8   7   6   5   2   2   1   1   0   0   0
CWR.................0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 78.
RH..................MIN 27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH AT 8 AM...INCREASING TO
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 13 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............6   5   5   9   14  30  43  51  55  55  53  51
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................51  49  51  57  63  69  74  76  77  77  78  77
RH..................78  84  79  61  49  38  31  29  28  27  27  28
20 FT WIND DIR......W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......0   0   0   0   1   2   3   4   5   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....                    5   5   10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 2.2 3.7 5.2 6.4 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.1 8.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.....W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....0   0   0   2   5   7   8   8   8   9   9   10
CWR.................0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10

$$
FORECASTER...BEASLEY
REQUESTED BY...STEVE SMESTAD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150503.JACKS.02/RNK




000
FNUS71 KRNK 032126
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR LICK MOUNTAIN RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
526 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN SLOWLY TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTION. HOWEVER...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY
REMAINS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.

AT IGNITION TIME AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE BURN SITE...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S RISING INTO THE MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-3 DEGREES COOLER AT 3000 FEET. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL START OUT AROUND 40 PERCENT...DROPPING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT
BY 3 PM EDT. WIND WILL BE SOUTHWEST 5-7 MPH AT 2500 FEET INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 MPH AT 3000 FEET ELEVATION.

THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHILE UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN LIMITED...THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AND COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
FRONT.

&&

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 45.
RH..................MAX 91 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST UP TO 6 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............29  24  19  14  12  12  12  13  14  12  9   7
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................72  66  63  61  58  55  54  52  51  50  49  48
RH..................24  29  33  37  42  48  51  56  60  64  69  74
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   SW
20 FT WIND SPD......2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   0   0   0
20 FT WIND GUST.....
MIX HGT (KFT).......5.3 2.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....6   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   0   0   0
CWR.................0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........69 AT IGNITION...MAX 78.
RH..................35 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 3 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
                    WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH.
CWR (0.01 IN).......7 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 0 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 0 TO 9
                    MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............6   5   6   10  16  31  44  52  55  56  54  51
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................46  45  47  53  60  66  69  71  71  75  77  77
RH..................83  91  86  65  51  41  35  33  33  30  28  28
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......0   0   0   0   1   2   2   3   4   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....                    5   5   10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.8 3.1 4.4 5.2 5.9 6.3 6.7 6.9 7.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....0   0   0   2   5   6   7   7   8   8   9   9
CWR.................0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10

$$
FORECASTER...BEASLEY
REQUESTED BY...PATRICIA FELTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.LICKM.01/RNK





000
FNUS71 KRNK 032126
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR LICK MOUNTAIN RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
526 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN SLOWLY TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GENERALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTION. HOWEVER...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE PROBABILITY
REMAINS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.

AT IGNITION TIME AND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE BURN SITE...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S RISING INTO THE MID 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 2-3 DEGREES COOLER AT 3000 FEET. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL START OUT AROUND 40 PERCENT...DROPPING TO AROUND 25 PERCENT
BY 3 PM EDT. WIND WILL BE SOUTHWEST 5-7 MPH AT 2500 FEET INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 MPH AT 3000 FEET ELEVATION.

THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHILE UPPER SUPPORT WILL REMAIN LIMITED...THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AND COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
FRONT.

&&

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 45.
RH..................MAX 91 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CWR (0.01 IN).......0 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST UP TO 6 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............29  24  19  14  12  12  12  13  14  12  9   7
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................72  66  63  61  58  55  54  52  51  50  49  48
RH..................24  29  33  37  42  48  51  56  60  64  69  74
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   SW
20 FT WIND SPD......2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   0   0   0
20 FT WIND GUST.....
MIX HGT (KFT).......5.3 2.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....6   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   0   0   0
CWR.................0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........69 AT IGNITION...MAX 78.
RH..................35 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 28 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 3 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
                    WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH.
CWR (0.01 IN).......7 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 0 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 0 TO 9
                    MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............6   5   6   10  16  31  44  52  55  56  54  51
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................46  45  47  53  60  66  69  71  71  75  77  77
RH..................83  91  86  65  51  41  35  33  33  30  28  28
20 FT WIND DIR......SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......0   0   0   0   1   2   2   3   4   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....                    5   5   10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 1.8 3.1 4.4 5.2 5.9 6.3 6.7 6.9 7.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....0   0   0   2   5   6   7   7   8   8   9   9
CWR.................0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10

$$
FORECASTER...BEASLEY
REQUESTED BY...PATRICIA FELTON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.LICKM.01/RNK




000
FNUS71 KRNK 031512
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR JACKSON RIVER...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1112 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1045 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HEATING TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR FINE FUELS TO
CONTINUE DRYING.

OPTIMISTIC FOR DECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE BURN. SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS
OBSERVED SUNDAY MORNING...RH VALUES WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER 8 AM DUE TO
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND STRONG HEATING...WITH RH AROUND 50 PERCENT AT
IGNITION TIME...AND FALLING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SCATTERED
CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN IN AND OUT CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. BELIEVE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL KEEP WETTING RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY...AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WHICH DOES DEVELOP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 PM.

&&

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 1 TO 8 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............33     20     19     18     16     12
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................73     67     61     58     55     54
RH..................28     39     50     62     74     77
20 FT WIND..........SW 2   S 2    SW 1   W 0    W 0    NW 0
20 FT WIND GUST.....5
MIX HGT (FT)........6800   4600   1700   300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 8   S 8    S 5    SW 1   NW 1   NW 3
CWR.................10     0      0      0      0      0

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 8400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 1 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 12
                    MPH LATE.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............9      5      4      17     38     45
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................51     56     63     69     73     75
RH..................86     71     54     45     38     36
20 FT WIND..........NW 0   NW 0   W 1    SW 2   SW 4   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....                     5      10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........400    800    4100   6200   7100   8000
TRANSPORT WIND......N 3    NW 1   W 5    SW 7   SW 8   SW 10
CWR.................0      0      0      0      0      10

.MONDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH...DECREASING TO 0 TO 1
                    MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............46     44     45     46     47     47
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................75     70     65     62     60     58
RH..................36     47     59     70     78     82
20 FT WIND..........SW 5   S 2    SW 2   W 1    NW 1   NW 1
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........7400   5400   2400   600    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 12  SW 9   SW 3   SW 0   NW 1   NW 0
CWR.................10     10     10     0      0      0

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 1 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO
                    12 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............47     47     49     52     55     60
WEATHER COV.........                            ISOLTD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............                                   SCTTRD
TEMP................56     60     66     71     75     76
RH..................89     76     61     52     47     46
20 FT WIND..........W 1    W 2    W 2    W 4    W 5    SW 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....       5      5      10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........500    900    3500   5500   7100   7500
TRANSPORT WIND......NW 1   NW 3   NW 9   W 9    W 6    W 7
CWR.................0      10     10     10     20     40

$$
FORECASTER...FILLO
REQUESTED BY...KURT THOMPSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.JACKS.01/RNK





000
FNUS71 KRNK 031512
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR JACKSON RIVER...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1112 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1045 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HEATING TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR FINE FUELS TO
CONTINUE DRYING.

OPTIMISTIC FOR DECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE BURN. SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS
OBSERVED SUNDAY MORNING...RH VALUES WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER 8 AM DUE TO
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND STRONG HEATING...WITH RH AROUND 50 PERCENT AT
IGNITION TIME...AND FALLING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SCATTERED
CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN IN AND OUT CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. BELIEVE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL KEEP WETTING RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY...AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WHICH DOES DEVELOP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 PM.

&&

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 1 TO 8 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............33     20     19     18     16     12
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................73     67     61     58     55     54
RH..................28     39     50     62     74     77
20 FT WIND..........SW 2   S 2    SW 1   W 0    W 0    NW 0
20 FT WIND GUST.....5
MIX HGT (FT)........6800   4600   1700   300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 8   S 8    S 5    SW 1   NW 1   NW 3
CWR.................10     0      0      0      0      0

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 8400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 1 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 12
                    MPH LATE.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............9      5      4      17     38     45
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................51     56     63     69     73     75
RH..................86     71     54     45     38     36
20 FT WIND..........NW 0   NW 0   W 1    SW 2   SW 4   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....                     5      10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........400    800    4100   6200   7100   8000
TRANSPORT WIND......N 3    NW 1   W 5    SW 7   SW 8   SW 10
CWR.................0      0      0      0      0      10

.MONDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH...DECREASING TO 0 TO 1
                    MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............46     44     45     46     47     47
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................75     70     65     62     60     58
RH..................36     47     59     70     78     82
20 FT WIND..........SW 5   S 2    SW 2   W 1    NW 1   NW 1
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........7400   5400   2400   600    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 12  SW 9   SW 3   SW 0   NW 1   NW 0
CWR.................10     10     10     0      0      0

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 1 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO
                    12 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............47     47     49     52     55     60
WEATHER COV.........                            ISOLTD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............                                   SCTTRD
TEMP................56     60     66     71     75     76
RH..................89     76     61     52     47     46
20 FT WIND..........W 1    W 2    W 2    W 4    W 5    SW 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....       5      5      10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........500    900    3500   5500   7100   7500
TRANSPORT WIND......NW 1   NW 3   NW 9   W 9    W 6    W 7
CWR.................0      10     10     10     20     40

$$
FORECASTER...FILLO
REQUESTED BY...KURT THOMPSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.JACKS.01/RNK





000
FNUS71 KRNK 031512
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR JACKSON RIVER...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1112 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1045 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HEATING TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR FINE FUELS TO
CONTINUE DRYING.

OPTIMISTIC FOR DECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE BURN. SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS
OBSERVED SUNDAY MORNING...RH VALUES WILL DROP QUICKLY AFTER 8 AM DUE TO
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AND STRONG HEATING...WITH RH AROUND 50 PERCENT AT
IGNITION TIME...AND FALLING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. SCATTERED
CU FIELD WILL DEVELOP DURING EARLY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN IN AND OUT CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. BELIEVE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL KEEP WETTING RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY...AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WHICH DOES DEVELOP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 3 PM.

&&

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 1 TO 8 MPH.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............33     20     19     18     16     12
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................73     67     61     58     55     54
RH..................28     39     50     62     74     77
20 FT WIND..........SW 2   S 2    SW 1   W 0    W 0    NW 0
20 FT WIND GUST.....5
MIX HGT (FT)........6800   4600   1700   300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 8   S 8    S 5    SW 1   NW 1   NW 3
CWR.................10     0      0      0      0      0

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 8400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 1 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 12
                    MPH LATE.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............9      5      4      17     38     45
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................51     56     63     69     73     75
RH..................86     71     54     45     38     36
20 FT WIND..........NW 0   NW 0   W 1    SW 2   SW 4   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....                     5      10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........400    800    4100   6200   7100   8000
TRANSPORT WIND......N 3    NW 1   W 5    SW 7   SW 8   SW 10
CWR.................0      0      0      0      0      10

.MONDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 12 MPH...DECREASING TO 0 TO 1
                    MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............46     44     45     46     47     47
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................75     70     65     62     60     58
RH..................36     47     59     70     78     82
20 FT WIND..........SW 5   S 2    SW 2   W 1    NW 1   NW 1
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........7400   5400   2400   600    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 12  SW 9   SW 3   SW 0   NW 1   NW 0
CWR.................10     10     10     0      0      0

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 1 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO
                    12 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............47     47     49     52     55     60
WEATHER COV.........                            ISOLTD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............                                   SCTTRD
TEMP................56     60     66     71     75     76
RH..................89     76     61     52     47     46
20 FT WIND..........W 1    W 2    W 2    W 4    W 5    SW 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....       5      5      10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........500    900    3500   5500   7100   7500
TRANSPORT WIND......NW 1   NW 3   NW 9   W 9    W 6    W 7
CWR.................0      10     10     10     20     40

$$
FORECASTER...FILLO
REQUESTED BY...KURT THOMPSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150504.JACKS.01/RNK




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