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000
AGUS74 KFWR 051526
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
925 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

                   VALID MARCH 5 THROUGH MARCH 10

...THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE WGRFC
AREA. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A strong cold front moved through most of Texas the past 24 hours.
In the meantime, a strong upper level trough moved from the Baja of
California eastward, and this trough is rapidly moving across Texas
now.  The combination of these systems generated widespread showers
and a few thunderstorms Wednesday.  Behind the front very cold air
moved in and the precipitation changed into a mixture of wintry
precipitation last night.  Officially 3.5 inches of snow fell in
the DFW metroplex, with locally higher amounts. Rainfall amounts
exceeded 3.00 inches over extreme east Texas from Longview to Linden
TX. The upper level storm is forecast to move east of the region by
this afternoon, and cold, dry air is moving in.  Thus most of the
precipitation will end during the day today.  Some lingering light
precipitation is expected over deep south Texas into early Friday
before dry weather sets in.

By Friday a weak ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop over
Texas.  This will keep most of the WGRFC area in a west or
northwesterly upper air flow with dry weather being the result into
Saturday morning.

By late Saturday a new storm system over Mexico is forecast to move
slowly eastward.  This will tap into some Gulf moisture and may bring
some precipitation to south Texas and areas along and near the Texas
Gulf coast Saturday night into Tuesday morning. The heaviest rain
should be confined to the Gulf coastal regions where atmospheric
moisture will be deepest.  Away from the coastline most of the
precipitation should be light, with no hydrologic impacts expected.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast over the upper Texas Gulf
coast, with lighter amounts over the southeast third of Texas and
Louisiana.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for Deep South Texas near Brownsville.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for areas along and near the middle Texas Gulf coast. Lesser
MAP amounts are forecast for the southeastern half of Texas and
western Louisiana.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for areas along and near the Texas Gulf coast and into
southern Louisiana. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for the
southeastern third of Texas and the southern two thirds of Louisiana.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (43%), and about 13% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (68%).  Lake levels in these
exceptional drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time
of year.  Recent precipitation events have brought a little bit of
drought relief over the past week or two.  Rainfall amounts of over
0.50 inch are forecast for southeastern Texas the next 5 days which
could produce minor runoff.  Elsewhere, little or no runoff is
expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall across the upper Sabine and 2 to 3
inches across the middle basins near Longview has again generated
enough runoff to bring the Cowleech Fork (GNVT2) and South Fork (QLAT2)
into minor flood.  Other headwater and local area basins along the
upper and middle reaches of the Sabine from Mineola (MLAT2) to Longview
(LONT2) are steady rising into action and low minor flood levels.
Further downstream, the Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2) will crest
near action stage late week.  Toledo Bend reservoir still generating 1
unit continuous until further notice.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most rivers are generally near normal baseflow conditions across the
eastern WGRFC area and below normal across the western areas.
Overnight widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall across northeastern Texas has
generated new  rises on small streams and creeks within headwater areas
within the upper Sabine, Neches, and Trinity river basins.  These
continued periodic rains are highly beneficial; allowing slow deeper
soil moisture penetration that has been limited over the past few
years.  With current rainfall received, no significant flooding is
expected.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$






000
AGUS74 KFWR 051526
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
925 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

                   VALID MARCH 5 THROUGH MARCH 10

...THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE WGRFC
AREA. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A strong cold front moved through most of Texas the past 24 hours.
In the meantime, a strong upper level trough moved from the Baja of
California eastward, and this trough is rapidly moving across Texas
now.  The combination of these systems generated widespread showers
and a few thunderstorms Wednesday.  Behind the front very cold air
moved in and the precipitation changed into a mixture of wintry
precipitation last night.  Officially 3.5 inches of snow fell in
the DFW metroplex, with locally higher amounts. Rainfall amounts
exceeded 3.00 inches over extreme east Texas from Longview to Linden
TX. The upper level storm is forecast to move east of the region by
this afternoon, and cold, dry air is moving in.  Thus most of the
precipitation will end during the day today.  Some lingering light
precipitation is expected over deep south Texas into early Friday
before dry weather sets in.

By Friday a weak ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop over
Texas.  This will keep most of the WGRFC area in a west or
northwesterly upper air flow with dry weather being the result into
Saturday morning.

By late Saturday a new storm system over Mexico is forecast to move
slowly eastward.  This will tap into some Gulf moisture and may bring
some precipitation to south Texas and areas along and near the Texas
Gulf coast Saturday night into Tuesday morning. The heaviest rain
should be confined to the Gulf coastal regions where atmospheric
moisture will be deepest.  Away from the coastline most of the
precipitation should be light, with no hydrologic impacts expected.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast over the upper Texas Gulf
coast, with lighter amounts over the southeast third of Texas and
Louisiana.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for Deep South Texas near Brownsville.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for areas along and near the middle Texas Gulf coast. Lesser
MAP amounts are forecast for the southeastern half of Texas and
western Louisiana.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for areas along and near the Texas Gulf coast and into
southern Louisiana. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for the
southeastern third of Texas and the southern two thirds of Louisiana.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (43%), and about 13% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (68%).  Lake levels in these
exceptional drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time
of year.  Recent precipitation events have brought a little bit of
drought relief over the past week or two.  Rainfall amounts of over
0.50 inch are forecast for southeastern Texas the next 5 days which
could produce minor runoff.  Elsewhere, little or no runoff is
expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall across the upper Sabine and 2 to 3
inches across the middle basins near Longview has again generated
enough runoff to bring the Cowleech Fork (GNVT2) and South Fork (QLAT2)
into minor flood.  Other headwater and local area basins along the
upper and middle reaches of the Sabine from Mineola (MLAT2) to Longview
(LONT2) are steady rising into action and low minor flood levels.
Further downstream, the Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2) will crest
near action stage late week.  Toledo Bend reservoir still generating 1
unit continuous until further notice.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most rivers are generally near normal baseflow conditions across the
eastern WGRFC area and below normal across the western areas.
Overnight widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall across northeastern Texas has
generated new  rises on small streams and creeks within headwater areas
within the upper Sabine, Neches, and Trinity river basins.  These
continued periodic rains are highly beneficial; allowing slow deeper
soil moisture penetration that has been limited over the past few
years.  With current rainfall received, no significant flooding is
expected.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$






000
AGUS74 KFWR 041716
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1116 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

                    VALID MARCH 4 THROUGH MARCH 9

...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WGRFC AREA THE NEXT
24 HOURS, BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE END OF THE WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A large low pressure system is over Baja California this morning. Well
out ahead of this storm, light precipitation has occurred across
especially the western parts of the WGRFC area the past 24 hours.
Precipitation amounts of close to one inch occurred over southern
New Mexico.  Over Colorado and northern New Mexico, some light
precipitation fell as well, but it was not as heavy as previous days.
The upper level flow over the WGRFC area of responsibility is out of
the southwest which is drawing in additional upper level Pacific
moisture over the region.  As a result, widespread light precipitation
has formed from eastern New Mexico to central and north Texas, with
some rain forming over east Texas as well.

A strong cold front has begun to move through Texas, and extends from
northeast into central and west Texas now.  A strong upper level
trough is moving over the northern United States from Canada which is
giving this front its push.  Additionally, the low pressure system
near Baja California will continue to move eastward.  The combination
of these systems will generate widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms today as the front moves across Texas. Behind the front
light precipitation will continue this afternoon and tonight.  With
the cold air moving in, a mixture of wintry precipitation is possible
over north and central Texas through tonight.  The upper level storm
is forecast to move east of the region by mid-day Thursday, and cold,
dry air is forecast to move in.  Thus most of the precipitation will
end during the day Thursday.  Some lingering light precipitation is
expected in south Texas on Thursday and Thursday night before dry
weather sets in.

By Friday a ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop over
northern California.  This will keep most of the WGRFC area in a west
or northwesterly upper air flow with dry weather being the result.
There is one exception, however.  A storm system over Mexico is
forecast to move eastward Saturday and may bring some precipitation
to deep south Texas and areas along and near the Texas Gulf coast
Saturday into Monday morning. Most of the precipitation should be
light, with no hydrologic impacts expected.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 1.00 to 2.00 inches are forecast for portions of
northeastern Texas, with heavier amounts forecast east of our region
over Arkansas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for much
of Texas except for the deep south portions.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch
are also forecast for a small part of northern New Mexico and southern
Colorado.  Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for most of the WGRFC area
of responsibility.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are
forecast over Deep South Texas near South Padre Island, with lighter
amounts over the southeast third of Texas and Louisiana.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for Deep South Texas.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for areas along and near the Texas Gulf coast and into
southern Louisiana. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for the southern
half of Texas and the southern two thirds of Louisiana.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (43%), and about 14% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (68%), and 4% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions.  Lake levels in these exceptional
drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time of year.
Rainfall amounts of over 1.00 inch are forecast for northeastern
Texas the next 5 days which could produce minor runoff.  Elsewhere,
little or no runoff is expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Another round of precipitation over the headwaters of the upper Sabine
River is expected this evening/overnight, which will again generate
enough runoff to bring the Cowleech Fork (GNVT2) and South Fork (QLAT2)
into minor flood.  Further downstream, the Sabine River at Deweyville
(DWYT2) will crest near action stage late week.  Toledo Bend reservoir
is now generating continuously 1 unit until further notice.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most rivers are generally near normal baseflow conditions across the
eastern WGRFC area and below normal across the western areas. Forecast
precipitation across northeastern Texas will generate new  rises on
small streams and creeks within headwater areas within the  Sabine and
Neches river basins.  However, these continued periodic rains are
highly beneficial; allowing slow deeper soil moisture penetration that
has been limited over the past few years.  With the current rainfall
forecast, no significant flooding is expected.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$






000
AGUS74 KFWR 031649
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1049 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

                    VALID MARCH 3 THROUGH MARCH 8

...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WGRFC AREA
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A large low pressure system is off the coast of southern California
this morning. Well out ahead of this storm, very light precipitation
has occurred across especially central Texas overnight and this
morning.  The showers and thunderstorms that occurred over
southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana moved out of the region
the past 24 hours. In Colorado and New Mexico, some light
precipitation fell as well, but it was not as heavy as previous days.
The upper level flow over the WGRFC area of responsibility will
continue to be from the southwest which will draw in additional upper
level Pacific moisture.  Widespread light precipitation is expected
from southern New Mexico to west Texas today, as well as through most
of central and eastern Texas. Also, light snow and rain is expected to
redevelop over northern New Mexico and Colorado by this evening.

A strong cold front is expected to approach the region from the north
this evening as a strong upper level trough moves over the northern
United States from Canada.  Additionally, the low pressure system off
the California coast will be pushed eastward.  Showers and
thunderstorms are possible beginning in northern and northeastern
Texas tonight, then as the front moves across Texas Wednesday the
showers and thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of the front
into east central Texas. Behind the front light precipitation will be
developing Wednesday.  With the cold air moving in, a mixture
of wintry precipitation is possible over north and central Texas
through Wednesday night.  Meanwhile, the snowfall will end in Colorado
and New Mexico by Thursday morning.  The upper level storm is forecast
to move east of the region by mid-day Thursday, and cold, dry air is
forecast to move in.  Thus most of the precipitation will end during
the day Thursday.  A final round of light precipitation is expected in
south Texas on Thursday and Thursday night before dry weather sets in.

By Friday a ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop over
central California.  As this ridge moves slowly eastward over the
weekend there may be some residual precipitation along and near the
Texas Gulf coast Friday and Saturday, but all the precipitation
should be east of the region by Sunday morning.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of far northern and
northeastern Texas.  Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for most of the
rest of Texas and Louisiana, as well as for portions of southern
Colorado and far northern New Mexico.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 1.00 inch are
forecast for portions of northeastern Texas, with heavier amounts
forecast east of our region over Arkansas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 to
1.00 inch are forecast for much of central, northern and eastern
Texas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for deep south Texas
and a small part of southern New Mexico.  Lesser MAP amounts are
forecast for most of the WGRFC area of responsibility.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are
forecast for much of Louisiana, as well as over Deep South Texas and
the lower Texas Gulf coast.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for portions of extreme southeastern Texas and southern
Louisiana. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for the southern half of
Texas and the southern two thirds of Louisiana.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (43%), and about 14% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (68%), and 4% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions.  Lake levels in these exceptional
drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time of year.
Rainfall amounts of up to 1.50 inches are forecast for northeastern
Texas the next 5 days which could produce some runoff.  Elsewhere,
little or no runoff is expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2) will crest near action stage
late week, then quickly fall as Toledo Bend has shut off power
generation until further notice.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most rivers are generally near normal baseflow conditions across the
eastern WGRFC area and below normal across the western areas.
Forecast precipitation across northeastern Texas will generate new
rises on small streams and creeks within headwater areas within the
Sabine and Neches river basins.  However, continued periodic rains are
slowly replenishing deeper soil moisture deficits that occurred over
the past few years.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$






000
AGUS74 KFWR 031649
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1049 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

                    VALID MARCH 3 THROUGH MARCH 8

...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WGRFC AREA
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A large low pressure system is off the coast of southern California
this morning. Well out ahead of this storm, very light precipitation
has occurred across especially central Texas overnight and this
morning.  The showers and thunderstorms that occurred over
southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana moved out of the region
the past 24 hours. In Colorado and New Mexico, some light
precipitation fell as well, but it was not as heavy as previous days.
The upper level flow over the WGRFC area of responsibility will
continue to be from the southwest which will draw in additional upper
level Pacific moisture.  Widespread light precipitation is expected
from southern New Mexico to west Texas today, as well as through most
of central and eastern Texas. Also, light snow and rain is expected to
redevelop over northern New Mexico and Colorado by this evening.

A strong cold front is expected to approach the region from the north
this evening as a strong upper level trough moves over the northern
United States from Canada.  Additionally, the low pressure system off
the California coast will be pushed eastward.  Showers and
thunderstorms are possible beginning in northern and northeastern
Texas tonight, then as the front moves across Texas Wednesday the
showers and thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of the front
into east central Texas. Behind the front light precipitation will be
developing Wednesday.  With the cold air moving in, a mixture
of wintry precipitation is possible over north and central Texas
through Wednesday night.  Meanwhile, the snowfall will end in Colorado
and New Mexico by Thursday morning.  The upper level storm is forecast
to move east of the region by mid-day Thursday, and cold, dry air is
forecast to move in.  Thus most of the precipitation will end during
the day Thursday.  A final round of light precipitation is expected in
south Texas on Thursday and Thursday night before dry weather sets in.

By Friday a ridge of high pressure is forecast to develop over
central California.  As this ridge moves slowly eastward over the
weekend there may be some residual precipitation along and near the
Texas Gulf coast Friday and Saturday, but all the precipitation
should be east of the region by Sunday morning.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of far northern and
northeastern Texas.  Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for most of the
rest of Texas and Louisiana, as well as for portions of southern
Colorado and far northern New Mexico.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 1.00 inch are
forecast for portions of northeastern Texas, with heavier amounts
forecast east of our region over Arkansas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 to
1.00 inch are forecast for much of central, northern and eastern
Texas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for deep south Texas
and a small part of southern New Mexico.  Lesser MAP amounts are
forecast for most of the WGRFC area of responsibility.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are
forecast for much of Louisiana, as well as over Deep South Texas and
the lower Texas Gulf coast.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for portions of extreme southeastern Texas and southern
Louisiana. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for the southern half of
Texas and the southern two thirds of Louisiana.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (43%), and about 14% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (68%), and 4% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions.  Lake levels in these exceptional
drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time of year.
Rainfall amounts of up to 1.50 inches are forecast for northeastern
Texas the next 5 days which could produce some runoff.  Elsewhere,
little or no runoff is expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Sabine River at Deweyville (DWYT2) will crest near action stage
late week, then quickly fall as Toledo Bend has shut off power
generation until further notice.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most rivers are generally near normal baseflow conditions across the
eastern WGRFC area and below normal across the western areas.
Forecast precipitation across northeastern Texas will generate new
rises on small streams and creeks within headwater areas within the
Sabine and Neches river basins.  However, continued periodic rains are
slowly replenishing deeper soil moisture deficits that occurred over
the past few years.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$






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    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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