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000
AGUS74 KFWR 291605
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1105 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

                     VALID MAY 29 THROUGH JUNE 3

...ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Over the last 24 hours, very heavy rainfall occurred over a
large portion of the WGRFC area, causing lots of flash flooding
and additional river rises once again. Another complex of
thunderstorms developed over the Texas Panhandle yesterday
afternoon, and thereafter moved over North Texas. As this system
moved over North Texas last night, very heavy rainfall begin
across the DFW Metroplex and continued through this morning. As a
result of this long duration of rainfall, lot of rivers responded
rather quickly across the Trinity and Brazos River systems.
Overall, rainfall amounts of 6-7 inches were reported within
the DFW Metroplex, and on average 1-2 inches fell across
Northwest and Central Texas.

Currently, the complex of storms has dissipated and moved off
towards the east. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue on and off for the remainder of the day,
however no widespread rainfall is expected until late
tonight/early tomorrow.

By late tonight through tomorrow morning...a cold front is
forecast to approach the WGRFC area from the northwest. As it
moves across Texas tonight, another 0.50 to 1.00 inch is
expected across North and Northwest Texas. Thereafter,
rainfall is expected to spread across Central and East Texas...
as the front continues moving southward.

The latest forecast models are still indicating a little relief
insight for next week. Some rainfall is expected for the next
several days, however widespread rainfall is not expected after
Sunday. Although significant rainfall is not forecast after
Sunday, moderate and Major flooding is expected to continue
for the next couple of weeks.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of the
Texas Panhandle, North Texas and East Texas.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
inch are forecast for most of the WGRFC area...excluding
West Texas, Colorado and New Mexico.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for the upper Texas coast. Lesser amounts are
forecast for East Texas.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts
are forecast for the WGRFC area.

Drought conditions continue to improve across most of the WGRFC
area. Recent precipitation events have brought drought relief
to many parts of Texas.  In Texas, only about 15% of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought, and extreme to
exceptional drought conditions are no longer being observed.
In New Mexico, a little over a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (37%), and they also are free from extreme
or exceptional drought conditions. Many of the lakes in Texas
have levels which have risen due to recent rainfall, and some lakes
are full and are releasing water. The rainfall expected over the
next five days over especially the northern half of Texas will be
heavy enough to produce significant runoff, and minor runoff is
expected over the remainder of Texas. Elsewhere over the WGRFC
area no significant runoff is anticipated.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Guadalupe Basin...
...Major Flooding...
The flood wave that was generated from the flash flood
emergency earlier this week on the Blanco River had finally
passed Cuero (CUET2) reaching just inches below major flood level.
The next stop is Victoria (VICT2) which is slowly approaching its
major flood level, but should crest within an inch either side of
major flood level any time now. Downstream at Bloomington (DUPT2),
the gage is still rising and should break over the major flood
level over the weekend. Small waves have been generated upstream
on some of the tributaries, but none will match the levels of the
current event.

...Nueces Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Asherton has finally receded within banks but the water continues
to move downstream.  Cotulla has crested from local and routed
rainfall overnight, but isn`t expected to start receding for another
day or so. The water has arrived at Tilden and continues to rise at
dangerous levels.  The model is having difficulty with the routing
of this level of water, but it appears to be close to cresting
initially later tonight, before a secondary crest later in the
period. Water from the Frio should arrive in the next few days at
Three Rivers driving the forecast into moderate flood. The releases
from Lake Corpus increased slightly, causing Bluntzer to reach
major and Calallen forecasted to rise back into moderate flood.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Major Flooding...
The West Fork of the San Jacinto river near
Porter (PTET2) and at Humble (HMMT2) are currently in major
flood category. Widespread minor flooding and above normal flow
levels continue across the San Jacinto River basin. With last
nights rainfall being lighter than recent rains, the rivers will
have time to recover some before the next event over ther weekend.

...Trinity Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Continued heavy rainfall across the entire Trinity River drainage
has caused widespread bankfull, minor, and moderate flood flow
conditions. Rainfall in the past 24 hours across the upper Trinity
thru Rosser (RSRT2) has caused quick rises in the DFW metroplex
along with water supply reservoirs and flood-control reservoirs
within surcharge passing inflows.  These combined flows, along with
local watershed runoff, have generated major flood levels at Dallas
(DALT2) and is expected to crest around 43ft overnight; major
flooding will continue downstream at Rosser (RSRT2) Saturday
overnight.  The Trinity River at Trinidad (TDDT2), near Long Lake
(LOLT2), and at Liberty (LBYT2) locations continue above major
flood levels and expected to rise further with additional flows
upstream.

The Padera Lake within the Joe Pool Lake drainage being monitored
is expected to fail, and will become inflows to Joe Pool. Flood
control reservoirs within the system with available flood storage
continues to store flood waters to minimize downstream flood
conditions.

...Colorado Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Another wave of water has developed on the Llano River from the
heavy rains overnight.  Upstream, the river is not above flood
criteria (MLRT2), but has generated enough flow to cause a
secondary crest downstream. The main gage at Llano (LLAT2) has
already crested just above the moderate flood level and will fall
rapidly, but should increase again when the upstream water arrives.
No flooding is expected with the secondary rise. This water is
heading for the Highland Lakes system and should not cause any
additional flooding. The mainstem of the Colorado River below Austin
continues to move the latest major flood event downstream.  The peak
water has passed Columbus (CBST2) and arrived in Garwood (GWCT2).
The Colorado River at Wharton (WHAT2) is expected to continue to
rise for another 24 hours but is expected to just go over major
flood level. Elevated flows below flood stage will continue
downstream.

...Brazos Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Heavy, localized rain (2 to 4 inches) fell, again between Possum
Kingdom Lake and Lake Whitney.  This is causing additional rises
on the Brazos River for Palo Pinto, Dennis, and the Horseshoe Bend
area. Major flooding is forecast to occur on the Brazos River at
Richmond (RMOT2).  The river at this location is forecast to crest
around 50 feet Saturday / Sunday.  At a river level of 50.2, the
Fort Bend Levee Improvement District enters into critical flood
fighting operations.

...Neches Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The Neches River system remains in elevated flow levels with
several locations currently in flood.  The Neches River near Alto
(ATOT2) is at moderate levels.  Nearly every forecast point within
the Neches River system is above flood stage or forecast to rise
above flood stage. Lakes in the region are all full and are passing
their inflows unless designed for flood control. B.A. Steinhagen
Lake has stabilized with their current releases, but additional
rainfall could require additional increases this weekend. The
coastal sites (SOLT2), (BEAT2), (KOUT2) should remain in minor flood
stages. Sam Rayburn remains below its surcharge area, but  is still
rising.

...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
With the bulk of the rainfall missing the upper Sabine, the rivers
continue to push the water towards Toledo Bend.  It appears that
Tawakani has reached its maximum release over the spillway, as
water at Mineola appears to have crested and dropped below
moderate. Hawkins remains on the rise as water works its way
downstream and Gladewater is forecasted to reach moderate flood
from both local and routed water. Downstream of Toledo Bend, both
Bon Weir and Deweyville are crested or receding from lower flows
out of the reservoir.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The flood wave generated during the flash flood on Cibelo Creek
has finally reached Goliad (GLIT2) and should crest several feet
into the moderate flood level,  Minor secondary rises are likely
with small events upstream.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Moderate flooding is expected across the San Bernard Basin.
East Bernard (EBBT2) and Boling (BOLT2) will crest this weekend.

...Lavaca-Navidad Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding will recede. Higher criteria, non-flood conditions,
are expecte at Ganado (GNDT2) and Tres Palacios Midfield (MTPT2).
Morales (MRAT2) and Strane Park (LSNT2) will slowly recede.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Releases out of Marte Gomez Reservoir in Mexico are driving a
rise on the Rio Grande near San Benito and Ramirez (SBNT2).
This rise will continue downstream to Brownsville and Matamoros.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Currently, most rivers are have ongoing flooding conditions and
remain very sensitive to further rainfall. Soil conditions remain
very saturated and any further rainfall will only exacerbate the
ongoing flooding.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 281620
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1117 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

                     VALID MAY 28 THROUGH JUNE 2

...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WGRFC REGION
NEXT 24 HOURS...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A complex of showers and thunderstorms developed overnight near
the Texas Panhandle...and continued moving over areas of North
Texas and the Red River this morning. Currently, the heaviest
rainfall is confined to areas along the Red River and will continue
to move into southeastern Oklahoma over the next couple of hours.
Elsewhere, another area of showers and thunderstorms is developing
over New Mexico and will eventually move into the Texas Panhandle
and West Texas through the late morning and afternoon hours. This
activity is not expected to cause any additional rises on the
rivers through this afternoon.

Another upper level disturbance is expected to move across the
WGRFC area later day, which will result in yet another complex of
showers and thunderstorms developing over portions of Northwest and
North Texas this evening and continuing through the overnight hours.
Rainfall amounts of up to 1.00 are expected for areas along and west
of I-35. However due to a very unstable and moist atmosphere, higher
amounts are certainly possible.

By late tomorrow through Saturday morning...a few upper air
disturbances combined with a cold front moving across the
Central Plains, will add additional rainfall to most of the WGRFC
area. Overall, this activity is expected to continue through the
weekend...which may add additional rises to some river basins
that are currently in moderate or major flooding.

The latest forecast models are indicating rainfall will remain in
the forecast for most of the WGRFC area though next week, however
rainfall amounts are not expected to be significant. We will
continue to monitor and update accordingly with any changes

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast from an area along and
west of I-35.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inch
are forecast for portions of North and Central Texas...mainly
along and north of I-20. Less amounts are forecast for areas along
and south of I-20.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for areas stretching from the Big Bend northeastward
to Northeast Texas.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of Northeast and East Texas.

Drought conditions continue to improve across most of the WGRFC
area. Recent precipitation events have brought drought relief
to many parts of Texas.  In Texas, only about 15% of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought, and extreme to
exceptional drought conditions are no longer being observed.
In New Mexico, a little over a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (37%), and they also are free from extreme
or exceptional drought conditions. Many of the lakes in Texas
have levels which have risen due to recent rainfall, and some lakes
are full and are releasing water. The rainfall expected over the
next five days over especially the northern half of Texas will be
heavy enough to produce significant runoff, and minor runoff is
expected over the remainder of Texas. Elsewhere over the WGRFC
area no significant runoff is anticipated.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Guadalupe Basin...
...Major Flooding...
As the flood wave moves downstream, Gonzales (GNLT2) and
Westhoff (WHOT2) have crested and continue to fall. The flood
wave continues to arrive at Cuero with major flooding forecasted
at Cuero (CUET2), Victoria (VICT2) and Dupont (DUPT2).

...Nueces Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Inflows into Choke Canyon Reservoir are on the increase.
The Frio River at Tilden (TIDT2) is forecast to rise into minor
flood by the weekend. However, Choke Canyon is well below the top
of the conservation pool at this time and is increasing only
slowly. On the Nueces River, upstream points at Asherton (ASRT2)
and Cotulla (COTT2) have crested and will remain near steady to
slowly falling. Water is now moving downstream to Tilden (TILT2),
which will be rising into major flood over the next few
days. Three Rivers (THET2) will be rising into moderate flood by
early next week. Inflows into Lake Corpus Christi will once again be
on the increase early next week due to these rises. Releases are up
slightly to 5120 cfs, which has lead to renewed major flooding at
Bluntzer (CBVT2). Calallen (CAAT2) is expected to see a slight rise
in the next couple of days. Depending on how much inflow comes into
the reservoir next week, renewed increases in release are possible
at some point later in the week.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Major Flooding...
The West Fork of the San Jacinto river near
Porter (PTET2) and at Humble (HMMT2) are currently in major flood
category.  Widespread minor flooding and above normal flow levels
continue across the San Jacinto River basin.

...Colorado Basin...
...Major Flooding...
The river has crested and is falling everywhere upstream of
Columbusm (CBST2), which is currently near crest. The Colorado
River at Wharton (WHAT2) is expected to rise into the 45 to 46 foot
range by Saturday morning, which is several feet above major flood
stage. Elevated flows below flood stage will continue downstream.

...Trinity Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Heavy rainfall across the entire Trinity River drainage has caused
widespread bankfull, minor, and moderate flood flow conditions.
Rainfall in the past 24 hours has caused quick rises in the Fort
Worth area on the Clear and West Fork Trinity Rivers. These flows,
combined with about a half inch of forecast rainfall, are expected
to cause a rise of about a foot at Dallas in the next couple of
days. The Trinity River at Trinidad (TDDT2), near Long Lake (LOLT2),
and at Liberty (LBYT2) locations are above major flood levels and
still rising.  At Padera Lake, on the Mountain Creek drainage, the
dam is closely being monitored.  Flood control reservoirs continue
to store flood waters minimizing downstream flood conditions.

...Brazos Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Heavy, localized rainfall (3 to 4 inches) recently occurred in (1)
the Possum Kingdom Lake area and (2) further downstream around
Hempstead and Richmond.  More widespread lesser rainfall amounts
also occurred between these two locations.

Major flooding is forecast to occur on the Brazos River at Richmond
(RMOT2).  The river at this location is forecast to crest around 50
feet late Friday / early Saturday.  At a river level of 50.2, the
Fort Bend Levee Improvement District enters into critical flood
fighting operations.

Upstream, voluntary evacuations have occurred in the Horseshoe Bend
Area, upstream of Granbury Reservoir.  The Brazos River at Dennis
(DNNT2), located upstream of this area, is forecast to crest around
24 feet this evening, below the moderate flood level.

...Neches Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The Neches River system remains in elevated flow levels with
several locations currently in flood.  The Neches River near Alto
(ATOT2) is at moderate levels.  Nearly every forecast point within
the Neches River system is above flood stage or forecast to rise
above flood stage. Lakes in the region are all full and are passing
their inflows unless designed for flood control. B.A. Steinhagen
Lake has stabilized with their current releases, but additional
rainfall could require additional increases this weekend. The
coastal sites (SOLT2), (BEAT2), (KOUT2) should remain in minor
flood stages. Sam Rayburn remains below its surcharge area, but
is still rising.

...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The uppermost section of the Sabine River has recovered from the
rainfall event earlier this week, but Lake Tawakoni (PNTT2)
continues to spill for the first time in years. This water,
added to local runoff below the dam will allow the Sabine River
near Mineola to rise slightly into its moderate flood category
level. The rest of the river between Mineola and Toledo Bend is
seeing mostly minor flooding. Toldeo Bend continues to pass inflows
with current releases at 28kcfs; not expected to increase next
24hrs. Moderate flooding continues on the lower Sabine River Basin
through Bon Wier (BWRT2) and Deweyville (DWYT2) as Toledo Bend
Reservoir continues to pass large inflows.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The San Antonio River at Goliad (GLIT2) will crest above moderate
flood stage Friday.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The rivers are crested or near crest. At Boling (BOLT2) and Sweeny
(SWYT2) moderate flooding is occurring.

...Lavaca-Navidad Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
There is minor flooding ongoing at a few locations.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Releases out of Marte Gomez Reservoir in Mexico are driving a
rise on the Rio Grande near San Benito and Ramirez (SBNT2).
This rise will continue downstream to Brownsville and Matamoros.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Currently, most rivers are have ongoing flooding conditions and
remain very sensitive to further rainfall. Soil conditions remain
very saturated and any further rainfall will only exacerbate the
ongoing flooding.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 271711
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1211 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

                     VALID MAY 27 THROUGH JUNE 1

...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper level disturbance moved over North Texas yesterday causing
some additional heavy rainfall and severe weather to impact portions
of North and Southeast Texas. Total rainfall amounts of 3-4 inches
were reported across Southeast Texas during the early morning hours.
As a result, this heavy rainfall caused some additional rises across
the San Jacinto and Brazos River systems. Currently, the activity
associated with the upper level disturbance is moving off towards
the east. The heaviest precipitation has moved offshore and is not
significantly impacting any of the coastal basins at this time.

For the remainder of the day, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected for a good portion of the WGRFC area, due to the very
unstable environment in place. However the main area for any
organized activity is expected across North and Central Texas
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Rainfall amounts of
0.50 to 1.00 inch are expected for areas along and north of I-20,
with some higher isolated amounts possible.

By tomorrow morning a new upper level disturbance is forecast to
approach our region from the west. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to initially develop over eastern New Mexico and far
west Texas by tomorrow morning. This rain will then move further
northeast and cover the northwest half of Texas during the day
tomorrow into Friday. Some locally heavy rainfall is forecast over
northwest Texas during this time frame. The first disturbance is
forecast to move northeast of our region by Friday night.
Thereafter, minor upper air disturbances are forecast to cross
north Texas Saturday into Sunday. Additional rainfall is forecast,
especially over the western parts of north Texas, and the WGRFC
will continue to monitor this storm and update as needed.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of Northeast
and East Texas. Lesser amounts are forecast for areas mainly along
and west of I-35.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch
are forecast for portions of Northwest and West Texas....mainly
for areas along and west of I-35.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch
are forecast for areas along and north of I-20.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for most of the WGRFC area...excluding the Texas
Panhandle.

Drought conditions continue to improve across most of the WGRFC
area. Recent precipitation events have brought drought relief
to many parts of Texas.  In Texas, only about 15% of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought, and extreme to
exceptional drought conditions are no longer being observed.
In New Mexico, a little over a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (37%), and they also are free from extreme
or exceptional drought conditions. Many of the lakes in Texas
have levels which have risen due to recent rainfall, and some lakes
are full and are releasing water. The rainfall expected over the
next five days over especially the northern half of Texas will be
heavy enough to produce significant runoff, and minor runoff is
expected over the remainder of Texas. Elsewhere over the WGRFC
area no significant runoff is anticipated.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Guadalupe Basin...
...Major Flooding...
The recent flood wave generated by very heavy, localized rainfall
around Luling area has moved downstream; now moving through
Gonzales (GNLT2) within moderate flood. This flood wave is
following the heels of the Wimberley flood wave that passed
earlier this week, bringing another rise near major flood.
Downstream at Cuero (CUET2), the high flows from Peach and
Sandies Creeks join which will add to duration and possibly
the crest height. Both these flood waves have caused major
damage along its path of the Blanco and San Marcos River mainstem,
and now moving along the Guadalupe mainstem. These combined waves
are expected to cause major flooding as it moves downstream along
the mainstem through Cuero (CUET2), Victoria (VICT2), and
Bloomington (DUPT2) to the coastal outlet. This event comes in the
wake of an earlier flood wave still moving further downstream; now
cresting through Bloomington (DUPT2).

...Nueces Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Inflows into Choke Canyon Reservoir are on the increase. The Frio
River near Derby (DBYT2) has crested within moderate flood level.
This will cause a rise downstream at Tilden (TIDT2) in to minor
flood late in the week. Choke Canyon is well below the top of the
conservation pool at this time and is increasing only slowly.
On the Nueces River, upstream points at Asherton (ASRT2) and
Cotulla (COTT2) have crested and will remain near steady to slowly
falling. Water is now moving downstream to Tilden (TILT2), which
will be rising into major flood over the next few days.
Three Rivers (THET2) will be rising into moderate flood late in the
week. Inflows into Lake Corpus Christi will once again be on the
increase this week due to these rises. Releases are up slightly to
4120 cfs, which will lead to near steady levels at Bluntzer (CBVT2)
and Calallen (CAAT2). Depending on how much inflow comes into the
reservoir, renewed increases in release are possible at some point
later in the week.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Major Flooding...
The San Jacinto River basin received additional heavy rainfall
overnight. The West Fork of the San Jacinto river near
Porter (PTET2) is currently in moderate flood category and is
forecast to rise into major flood category. The West Fork near
Humble is in moderate flood category. Peach Creek near Splendora
is forecast to rise into major flood category.

...Colorado Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Heavy rain has fallen over the last 48 hours mainly over the middle
and lower Colorado River Basin.  River stages upstream of La Grange
(LGRT2) have already crested and fallen below criteria. Downstream,
the rivers continue to rise along the mainstem Colorado and its
tributaries.  Some of these locations are forecast to crest at
major flood levels, in particular La Grange and Wharton (WHAT2).

...Trinity Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Heavy rainfall across the entire Trinity River drainage has caused
widespread bankfull, minor, and moderate flood flow conditions.
The Trinity River at Trinidad (TDDT2) is forecast to hit major
flood stage later today.  Downstream near Long Lake (LOLT2) the
river is expected to rise to major flood levels in the next day or
two. At Padera Lake, on the Mountain Creek drainage, the dam is
closely being monitored.  Flood control reservoirs continue to store
flood waters minimizing downstream flood conditions.

...Neches Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The Neches River system remains in elevated flow levels with
several locations currently in flood.  The Neches River near
Alto (ATOT2) is at moderate levels.  Nearly every forecast point
within the Neches River system is above flood stage or forecast to
rise above flood stage. Moderate flooding is expected on the lower
Neches River at Weiss Bluff (WBFT2) and Beaumont (BEAT2) as well as
on Pine Island Bayou near Sour Lake (SOLT2). Inflows into B.A.
Steinhagen Lake are on the increase. Therefore event higher flows
than currently forecast are possible downstream at
Town Bluff (TBFT2) and Evadale (EVDT2).

...Brazos Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Heavy, localized rainfall (3 to 4 inches) occurred over the last
24 hours in (1) the Possum Kingdom Lake area and (2) further
downstream around Hempstead and Richmond. More widespread lesser
rainfall amounts also occurred between these two locations.
Moderate flooding is occurring or is forecast to occur along
parts of the mainstem Brazos, areas of the Navasota River, the
lower Little River, and a small area on the Leon River. Minor
flooding is also occurring at various locations along the mainstem
Brazos and tributaries from the Possum Kingdom region dowstream
to the Texas Gulf Coast.

...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Heavy overnight rainfall has caused sufficient runoff to
generate minor and expected moderate flood levels within the
headwaters, Cowleech Fork (GNVT2), South Fork (QLAT2) and
Lake Fork (QTMT2), and along the mainstem Sabine from Greenville
to Toldeo Bend. Toldeo Bend continues to pass inflows with current
releases at 28kcfs; not expected to increase next 24hrs. Moderate
flooding continues on the lower Sabine River Basin through Bon Wier
(BWRT2) and Deweyville (DWYT2) as Toledo Bend Reservoir continues
to pass large inflows.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Near Falls City, Cibolo Creek (FCTT2) and the San Antonio River
(FACT2) are below flood stage and falling. The San Antonio River
at Goliad (GLIT2) is on the rise and expected to crest in
moderate flood levels later this week.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Heavy rainfall two nights ago has caused elevated flows on the
San Bernard River. At Boling (BOLT2) and Sweeny (SWYT2) moderate
flooding is occurring or forecast.

...Lavaca-Navidad Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Heavy rain has fallen over the last 48 hours over the upper and
middle Lavaca and Navidad rivers. Several locations are forecas
to crest at minor flood levels.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Releases out of Marte Gomez Reservoir in Mexico are driving a
rise on the Rio Grande near San Benito and Ramirez (SBNT2).
This rise will continue downstream to Brownsville and Matamoros.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Currently, most rivers are have ongoing flooding conditions and
remain very sensitive to further rainfall. Soil conditions remain
very saturated and any further rainfall will only exacerbate the
ongoing flooding.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 271711
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1211 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

                     VALID MAY 27 THROUGH JUNE 1

...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper level disturbance moved over North Texas yesterday causing
some additional heavy rainfall and severe weather to impact portions
of North and Southeast Texas. Total rainfall amounts of 3-4 inches
were reported across Southeast Texas during the early morning hours.
As a result, this heavy rainfall caused some additional rises across
the San Jacinto and Brazos River systems. Currently, the activity
associated with the upper level disturbance is moving off towards
the east. The heaviest precipitation has moved offshore and is not
significantly impacting any of the coastal basins at this time.

For the remainder of the day, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected for a good portion of the WGRFC area, due to the very
unstable environment in place. However the main area for any
organized activity is expected across North and Central Texas
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Rainfall amounts of
0.50 to 1.00 inch are expected for areas along and north of I-20,
with some higher isolated amounts possible.

By tomorrow morning a new upper level disturbance is forecast to
approach our region from the west. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to initially develop over eastern New Mexico and far
west Texas by tomorrow morning. This rain will then move further
northeast and cover the northwest half of Texas during the day
tomorrow into Friday. Some locally heavy rainfall is forecast over
northwest Texas during this time frame. The first disturbance is
forecast to move northeast of our region by Friday night.
Thereafter, minor upper air disturbances are forecast to cross
north Texas Saturday into Sunday. Additional rainfall is forecast,
especially over the western parts of north Texas, and the WGRFC
will continue to monitor this storm and update as needed.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of Northeast
and East Texas. Lesser amounts are forecast for areas mainly along
and west of I-35.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch
are forecast for portions of Northwest and West Texas....mainly
for areas along and west of I-35.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch
are forecast for areas along and north of I-20.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for most of the WGRFC area...excluding the Texas
Panhandle.

Drought conditions continue to improve across most of the WGRFC
area. Recent precipitation events have brought drought relief
to many parts of Texas.  In Texas, only about 15% of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought, and extreme to
exceptional drought conditions are no longer being observed.
In New Mexico, a little over a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (37%), and they also are free from extreme
or exceptional drought conditions. Many of the lakes in Texas
have levels which have risen due to recent rainfall, and some lakes
are full and are releasing water. The rainfall expected over the
next five days over especially the northern half of Texas will be
heavy enough to produce significant runoff, and minor runoff is
expected over the remainder of Texas. Elsewhere over the WGRFC
area no significant runoff is anticipated.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Guadalupe Basin...
...Major Flooding...
The recent flood wave generated by very heavy, localized rainfall
around Luling area has moved downstream; now moving through
Gonzales (GNLT2) within moderate flood. This flood wave is
following the heels of the Wimberley flood wave that passed
earlier this week, bringing another rise near major flood.
Downstream at Cuero (CUET2), the high flows from Peach and
Sandies Creeks join which will add to duration and possibly
the crest height. Both these flood waves have caused major
damage along its path of the Blanco and San Marcos River mainstem,
and now moving along the Guadalupe mainstem. These combined waves
are expected to cause major flooding as it moves downstream along
the mainstem through Cuero (CUET2), Victoria (VICT2), and
Bloomington (DUPT2) to the coastal outlet. This event comes in the
wake of an earlier flood wave still moving further downstream; now
cresting through Bloomington (DUPT2).

...Nueces Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Inflows into Choke Canyon Reservoir are on the increase. The Frio
River near Derby (DBYT2) has crested within moderate flood level.
This will cause a rise downstream at Tilden (TIDT2) in to minor
flood late in the week. Choke Canyon is well below the top of the
conservation pool at this time and is increasing only slowly.
On the Nueces River, upstream points at Asherton (ASRT2) and
Cotulla (COTT2) have crested and will remain near steady to slowly
falling. Water is now moving downstream to Tilden (TILT2), which
will be rising into major flood over the next few days.
Three Rivers (THET2) will be rising into moderate flood late in the
week. Inflows into Lake Corpus Christi will once again be on the
increase this week due to these rises. Releases are up slightly to
4120 cfs, which will lead to near steady levels at Bluntzer (CBVT2)
and Calallen (CAAT2). Depending on how much inflow comes into the
reservoir, renewed increases in release are possible at some point
later in the week.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Major Flooding...
The San Jacinto River basin received additional heavy rainfall
overnight. The West Fork of the San Jacinto river near
Porter (PTET2) is currently in moderate flood category and is
forecast to rise into major flood category. The West Fork near
Humble is in moderate flood category. Peach Creek near Splendora
is forecast to rise into major flood category.

...Colorado Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Heavy rain has fallen over the last 48 hours mainly over the middle
and lower Colorado River Basin.  River stages upstream of La Grange
(LGRT2) have already crested and fallen below criteria. Downstream,
the rivers continue to rise along the mainstem Colorado and its
tributaries.  Some of these locations are forecast to crest at
major flood levels, in particular La Grange and Wharton (WHAT2).

...Trinity Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Heavy rainfall across the entire Trinity River drainage has caused
widespread bankfull, minor, and moderate flood flow conditions.
The Trinity River at Trinidad (TDDT2) is forecast to hit major
flood stage later today.  Downstream near Long Lake (LOLT2) the
river is expected to rise to major flood levels in the next day or
two. At Padera Lake, on the Mountain Creek drainage, the dam is
closely being monitored.  Flood control reservoirs continue to store
flood waters minimizing downstream flood conditions.

...Neches Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The Neches River system remains in elevated flow levels with
several locations currently in flood.  The Neches River near
Alto (ATOT2) is at moderate levels.  Nearly every forecast point
within the Neches River system is above flood stage or forecast to
rise above flood stage. Moderate flooding is expected on the lower
Neches River at Weiss Bluff (WBFT2) and Beaumont (BEAT2) as well as
on Pine Island Bayou near Sour Lake (SOLT2). Inflows into B.A.
Steinhagen Lake are on the increase. Therefore event higher flows
than currently forecast are possible downstream at
Town Bluff (TBFT2) and Evadale (EVDT2).

...Brazos Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Heavy, localized rainfall (3 to 4 inches) occurred over the last
24 hours in (1) the Possum Kingdom Lake area and (2) further
downstream around Hempstead and Richmond. More widespread lesser
rainfall amounts also occurred between these two locations.
Moderate flooding is occurring or is forecast to occur along
parts of the mainstem Brazos, areas of the Navasota River, the
lower Little River, and a small area on the Leon River. Minor
flooding is also occurring at various locations along the mainstem
Brazos and tributaries from the Possum Kingdom region dowstream
to the Texas Gulf Coast.

...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Heavy overnight rainfall has caused sufficient runoff to
generate minor and expected moderate flood levels within the
headwaters, Cowleech Fork (GNVT2), South Fork (QLAT2) and
Lake Fork (QTMT2), and along the mainstem Sabine from Greenville
to Toldeo Bend. Toldeo Bend continues to pass inflows with current
releases at 28kcfs; not expected to increase next 24hrs. Moderate
flooding continues on the lower Sabine River Basin through Bon Wier
(BWRT2) and Deweyville (DWYT2) as Toledo Bend Reservoir continues
to pass large inflows.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Near Falls City, Cibolo Creek (FCTT2) and the San Antonio River
(FACT2) are below flood stage and falling. The San Antonio River
at Goliad (GLIT2) is on the rise and expected to crest in
moderate flood levels later this week.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Heavy rainfall two nights ago has caused elevated flows on the
San Bernard River. At Boling (BOLT2) and Sweeny (SWYT2) moderate
flooding is occurring or forecast.

...Lavaca-Navidad Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Heavy rain has fallen over the last 48 hours over the upper and
middle Lavaca and Navidad rivers. Several locations are forecas
to crest at minor flood levels.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Releases out of Marte Gomez Reservoir in Mexico are driving a
rise on the Rio Grande near San Benito and Ramirez (SBNT2).
This rise will continue downstream to Brownsville and Matamoros.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Currently, most rivers are have ongoing flooding conditions and
remain very sensitive to further rainfall. Soil conditions remain
very saturated and any further rainfall will only exacerbate the
ongoing flooding.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


$$







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