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000
AGUS74 KFWR 281803
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1151 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

                   VALID JULY 28 THROUGH AUGUST 2

...HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK OVER TEXAS, WITH
A LITTLE RELIEF POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. MONSOONAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NEW MEXICO...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A strong upper level high pressure ridge is located over Arkansas
and eastern Oklahoma this morning.  This ridge will be anchored over
or near the WGRFC region and will continue to dominate the weather
over Texas through at least Thursday morning.  As a result, hot and
dry conditions are expected to persist across most of the forecast
area. This ridge has actually shifted a bit to the north the past 24
hours.  While this shift is minor in regards to the overall impact
on our hot, dry conditions, this shift has allowed a better chance
for diurnal showers and thunderstorms over east and southeast
Texas into Louisiana.  The showers in this area actually began Sunday
where rain moved westward out of Louisiana into extreme east Texas,
and this occurred again Monday.  These showers will continue each
afternoon, especially from Thursday into the weekend.

By Thursday the ridge is forecast to begin drifting westward, but
with little impact on our dry weather.  But by later Friday the ridge
will be centered over or near the four corners region and will
remain there through Sunday.  This shift in the ridge position not
only increases the chance for rain over southeast Texas near the
coast, but over other portions of Texas as well.  Upper disturbances
will continue to move around the periphery of the ridge and will
cross Texas.  While the chances for significant rainfall is small, it
is a chance for some rain nonetheless.

Monsoonal activity is expected to continue over the next 5 days over
portions of New Mexico, Colorado and far west Texas.  The showers and
thunderstorms should be rather limited through today, but as the
ridge shifts position Wednesday and Thursday the areal coverage and
the intensity of the rain should increase once again.  While there
likely will be some flashier flood concerns over New Mexico
especially on Wednesday and Thursday, no significant mainstem river
flooding is expected the next five days.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for much of New Mexico
and southern Colorado.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for portions of northern and western New Mexico into
southern Colorado, and over south central New Mexico.  The heaviest
rain, with MAP amounts of 2.00 inches, are forecast over northern
New Mexico south and southwest of Taos.  MAP amounts of less than
0.25 inch are forecast for most of New Mexico, a good part of
Colorado, the Texas panhandle, extreme east Texas, and most of
Louisiana.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for portions of northern and western New Mexico into
southern Colorado.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch,
are forecast over northern New Mexico south and southwest of Taos.
MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of New
Mexico, southern Colorado, the Texas panhandle, the eastern half of
Texas, and Louisiana.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast
for portions of northern and western New Mexico into southern
Colorado.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for New
Mexico, much of Colorado, most of Texas, and southern Louisiana.

Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full
and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules.
Soil moisture has been very high across much of Texas from rainfall
over May and June.  However, the hot, dry weather we have had in
July, along with the expectation of mostly dry weather over the next
several days, is causing the topsoils to dry out.  The rainfall
forecast over the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause
significant runoff except near the higher terrain of New Mexico.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Releases from flood control reservoir Sam Rayburn have raised the
Neches River near Town Bluff (TBFT2) to just over flood stage. Releases
will continue to fluctuate as the reservoirs make daily adjustments.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
North Texas lakes continue to slowly evacuate flood pool storage via
controlled releases in order to return to desired conservation pool
levels.  Lake Grapevine and Lake Lewisville both reduced their releases
recently allowing river levels at Carrollton to finally drop below
minor flood level.  System-wide, the reservoir releases have kept
streamflows downstream at higher than normal flow levels, which is
expected to continue for several weeks as the water works its way to
the Gulf.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of WGRFC rivers are flowing below criteria at near
or above normal baseflow conditions. Significant rainfall is not
forecast in the WGRFC area in the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$






000
AGUS74 KFWR 281651
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1151 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

                   VALID JULY 28 THROUGH AUGUST 2

...HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK OVER TEXAS, WITH
A LITTLE RELIEF POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. MONSOONAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NEW MEXICO...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A strong upper level high pressure ridge is located over Arkansas
and eastern Oklahoma this morning.  This ridge will be anchored over
or near the WGRFC region and will continue to dominate the weather
over Texas through at least Thursday morning.  As a result, hot and
dry conditions are expected to persist across most of the forecast
area. This ridge has actually shifted a bit to the north the past 24
hours.  While this shift is minor in regards to the overall impact
on our hot, dry conditions, this shift has allowed a better chance
for diurnal showers and thunderstorms over east and southeast
Texas into Louisiana.  The showers in this area actually began Sunday
where rain moved westward out of Louisiana into extreme east Texas,
and this occurred again Monday.  These showers will continue each
afternoon, especially from Thursday into the weekend.

By Thursday the ridge is forecast to begin drifting westward, but
with little impact on our dry weather.  But by later Friday the ridge
will be centered over or near the four corners region and will
remain there through Sunday.  This shift in the ridge position not
only increases the chance for rain over southeast Texas near the
coast, but over other portions of Texas as well.  Upper disturbances
will continue to move around the periphery of the ridge and will
cross Texas.  While the chances for significant rainfall is small, it
is a chance for some rain nonetheless.

Monsoonal activity is expected to continue over the next 5 days over
portions of New Mexico, Colorado and far west Texas.  The showers and
thunderstorms should be rather limited through today, but as the
ridge shifts position Wednesday and Thursday the areal coverage and
the intensity of the rain should increase once again.  While there
likely will be some flash flood concerns over New Mexico especially
on Wednesday and Thursday, no significant mainstem river flooding is
expected the next five days.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for much of New Mexico
and southern Colorado.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for portions of northern and western New Mexico into
southern Colorado, and over south central New Mexico.  The heaviest
rain, with MAP amounts of 2.00 inches, are forecast over northern
New Mexico south and southwest of Taos.  MAP amounts of less than
0.25 inch are forecast for most of New Mexico, a good part of
Colorado, the Texas panhandle, extreme east Texas, and most of
Louisiana.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for portions of northern and western New Mexico into
southern Colorado.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch,
are forecast over northern New Mexico south and southwest of Taos.
MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of New
Mexico, southern Colorado, the Texas panhandle, the eastern half of
Texas, and Louisiana.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast
for portions of northern and western New Mexico into southern
Colorado.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for New
Mexico, much of Colorado, most of Texas, and southern Louisiana.

Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full
and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules.
Soil moisture has been very high across much of Texas from rainfall
over May and June.  However, the hot, dry weather we have had in
July, along with the expectation of mostly dry weather over the next
several days, is causing the topsoils to dry out.  The rainfall
forecast over the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause
significant runoff except near the higher terrain of New Mexico.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Releases from flood control reservoir Sam Rayburn have raised the
Neches River near Town Bluff (TBFT2) to just over flood stage. Releases
will continue to fluctuate as the reservoirs make daily adjustments.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
North Texas lakes continue to slowly evacuate flood pool storage via
controlled releases in order to return to desired conservation pool
levels.  Lake Grapevine and Lake Lewisville both reduced their releases
recently allowing river levels at Carrollton to finally drop below
minor flood level.  System-wide, the reservoir releases have kept
streamflows downstream at higher than normal flow levels, which is
expected to continue for several weeks as the water works its way to
the Gulf.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of WGRFC rivers are flowing below criteria at near
or above normal baseflow conditions. Significant rainfall is not
forecast in the WGRFC area in the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$






000
AGUS74 KFWR 271608
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1108 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

                   VALID JULY 27 THROUGH AUGUST 1

...HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEK OVER TEXAS, WITH
MONSOONAL RAINS CONTINUING OVER NEW MEXICO...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A strong upper level high pressure ridge is located over northwest
Texas and western Oklahoma this morning.  This ridge will be anchored
over or near the WGRFC region and will continue to dominate the
weather over Texas through at least Wednesday morning.  As a result,
hot and dry conditions are expected to persist across most of the
forecast area. This ridge may shift a bit to the north through
mid-week.  While this shift is minor in regards to the overall impact
on our hot, dry conditions, this shift has allowed a better chance
for sea breeze showers and thunderstorms over east and southeast
Texas into Louisiana.  The showers actually began Sunday where rain
moved westward out of Louisiana into extreme east Texas. These
showers will continue each afternoon into the end of the week.

By Thursday the ridge is forecast to begin drifting westward, but
with little impact on our dry weather.  But by Friday the ridge will
be centered over the four corners region.  This shift in the ridge
position not only increases the chance for rain over southeast
Texas near the coast, but over the northern and eastern portions of
the state as well.  Upper disturbances will continue to move along
the periphery of the ridge and cross northeast Texas.  While the
chances for significant rainfall is small, it is a chance for some
rain nonetheless.

Monsoonal activity is expected to continue over the next 5 days over
portions of New Mexico, Colorado and far west Texas.  The showers and
thunderstorms should be rather limited through today, but as the
ridge shifts position Tuesday and Wednesday the areal coverage of the
rain should increase once again.  While there may be some flash
flood concerns over New Mexico especially on Wednesday, no
significant flooding is expected the next five days.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for much of New Mexico,
Colorado, extreme southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of south central and southwestern New
Mexico, northeast New Mexico, and the northern Texas panhandle. MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for much of New Mexico,
southern Colorado, and far west Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for portions of northern and western New Mexico into
southern Colorado, and over south central New Mexico.  The heaviest
rain, with MAP amounts of 1.50 inches, are forecast over northern New
Mexico south of Taos.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for most of New Mexico, a good part of Colorado, the Texas
panhandle, extreme east Texas, and most of Louisiana.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of northern and western New Mexico into
southern Colorado, as well as over southeast Texas into the southern
two thirds of Louisiana.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for most of New Mexico, much of Colorado, the northeast two
thirds of Texas, and Louisiana.

Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full
and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules.
Soil moisture has been very high across much of Texas from rainfall
over May and June.  However, the hot, dry weather we have had in
July, along with the expectation of dry weather over the next several
days, is causing the topsoils to dry out.  The rainfall forecast over
the next five days will not be heavy enough to cause significant
runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Releases from flood control reservoir Sam Rayburn have raised the
Neches River near Town Bluff (TBFT2) to just over flood stage. Releases
will continue to fluctuate as the reservoirs make daily adjustments.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
North Texas lakes continue to slowly evacuate flood pool storage via
controlled releases in order to return to desired conservation pool
levels.  Lake Grapevine and Lake Lewisville both reduced their releases
over the weekend allowing the gage at Carrollton to finally drop below
flood stage. The reservoir releases have kept
streamflows downstream at higher than normal flow levels, which is
expected to continue for several weeks as the water works its way to
the Gulf.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of WGRFC rivers are flowing below criteria at near
or above normal baseflow conditions. Significant rainfall is not
forecast in the WGRFC area in the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$






000
AGUS74 KFWR 261550
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1049 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

                    VALID JULY 26 THROUGH JULY 31

...HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK OVER
TEXAS, WITH MONSOONAL RAINS CONTINUING OVER NEW MEXICO...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A strong upper level high pressure ridge is located over northwest
Texas and western Oklahoma this morning.  This ridge will be anchored
over the WGRFC region and will continue to dominate the area through
Tuesday morning.  As a result, hot and dry conditions are expected to
persist across most of the forecast area. This ridge may shift a bit
to the east into Missouri and Arkansas by later Tuesday.  While this
shift is minor in regards to the overall impact on our hot, dry
conditions, this shift may allow a better chance for sea breeze
showers and thunderstorms to occur over southeast Texas into
Louisiana.  The chance for diurnal sea breeze showers actually begins
this afternoon and will continue into the end of the week.

By Thursday the ridge is forecast to begin drifting westward, but
with little impact on our dry weather.  But by Friday the ridge will
be centered over the four corners region.  This shift in the ridge
position not only increases the chance for rain over southeast
Texas near the coast, but over the northern and eastern portions of
the state as well.  Upper disturbances will continue to flow along
the periphery of the ridge and cross northeast Texas.  While the
chances for significant rainfall is small, it is a chance for some
rain nonetheless.

Monsoonal activity is expected to continue over the next 5 days over
portions of New Mexico, Colorado and far west Texas.  The showers and
thunderstorms should be rather limited through Monday, but as the
ridge shifts slightly towards the east Tuesday and Wednesday the
areal coverage of the rain should increase once again into Thursday.
No significant flooding is expected the next five days.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for much of New Mexico,
most of Colorado, extreme southeast Texas and southern Louisiana.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for much of New Mexico, southern and eastern Colorado,
extreme southeast Texas and a good part of Louisiana.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of southern New Mexico.  MAP amounts of less
than 0.25 inch are forecast for much of New Mexico, most of Colorado,
and far west Texas.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for portions of northern and western New Mexico into
southern Colorado.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00
inch, are forecast over northern New Mexico southeast of Taos.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for most of New Mexico,
most of Colorado, the Texas panhandle, the northeast third of Texas,
and Louisiana.

Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full
and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules.
Soil moisture has been very high across much of Texas from rainfall
over May and June.  However, the hot, dry weather we have had in
July, along with the expectation of dry weather over the next several
days, is causing the topsoils to dry.  The rainfall forecast over the
next five days will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Rio Grande near Candelaria is still reporting flows near action
stage in the reach.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
North Texas lakes continue to slowly evacuate flood pool storage via
controlled releases in order to return to desired conservation pool
levels.  Lake Grapevine and Lake Lewisville both reduced their releases
allowing the gage at Carrollton to finally drop well below flood stage
for the first time in almost 2 months. The reservoir releases has kept
streamflows downstream at higher than normal flow levels, which is
expected to continue for several weeks as the water works its way to
the Gulf.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of WGRFC rivers are flowing below criteria at near
or above normal baseflow conditions. Significant rainfall is not
forecast in the WGRFC area in the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$






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