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000
AGUS74 KFWR 011632
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1132 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

                VALID SEPTEMBER 1 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 6

...COASTAL PRECIPITATION CALMS A BIT AS A STORM BREWS NEAR THE
YUCATAN...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The onshore flow causing the most of the coastal showers over the
past few days has calmed a bit allowing a slight reprieve in the Gulf
coast precipitation for Texas.  There still should be some isolated
storm development as the day progresses with the focus being more
towards Louisiana than the Texas Gulf coast.  These storms have left
widespread 3-5 inches of rainfall over the past few days with
isolated areas seeing closer to 8 inches.  Most of this rainfall;
however, occurred within 50 miles of the coast with very little
extending inland.  While the precipitation should be somewhat calmer
today, model guidance suggests this activity to still continue over
the next few days.  However, it should be more isolated storms than
widespread rainfall.

The other area of interest is the tropical system emerging on the
other side of the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche.  The
primary reason that coastal precipitation does not appear to be
ending soon is this system will continue the entrainment of moisture
towards the coast.  While not currently forecasted to make landfall
over the United States, it will generate storm activity for south
Texas especially near the coast at Brownsville.  The National
Hurricane Center gives it a 60% chance of reaching tropical storm
criteria, but overall it will not have enough time over water to gain
any significant strength.  Just a rain producer for south Texas and
for north Mexico.  No significant flooding is expected at this time
but WGRFC will continue to track the storm development.

For the other 95% of the WGRFC area, it will remain dry aloft as a
weak high pressure struggles to develop out west.  This will keep
most of the area in dry warm conditions for the forecast period.  A
storm off the western coast of Mexico may allow for moisture to
stream into New Mexico and set up the monsoonal activity later in the
week.  Otherwise, warm and dry with no flooding expected.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of

Drought persists over Texas and New Mexico.  Statewide, New
Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas
remains in exceptional drought.  Severe drought conditions are
impacting 40% of New Mexico and 34% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in
New Mexico continue to ease the drought conditions in many areas
of the state.  Some runoff can be expected along the immediate Texas
Gulf coast the next 5 days, but minor or no runoff is anticipated
elsewhere.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall during the past several days has increased soil moisture and
river conditions to near or above seasonal normals in portions of
southeastern Texas and along the Texas Gulf Coast. Elsewhere, soil
conditions remain dry, and river conditions are generally below
seasonal normal flows. No significant flooding is forecast to occur
through the forecast period.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO


$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 311642
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1141 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

                 VALID AUGUST 31 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5

...DRY AIR DOMINATES FORECAST BUT A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS REMAIN...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The coastal rainfall is still occurring along the coast, again not
reaching very far inland.  Yesterday, lower level winds shifted to
southerly pushing most of the precipitation to the Texas Louisiana
border.  Today the flow is currently more easterly on shore so the
storms are occurring along the central Texas Gulf coast.  The storms
are slowly shifting back towards the Louisiana border similar to
yesterday.  They are a little lighter than previous days but the
areas are saturated and experiencing urban and small stream flooding
already.  Continued rainfall will exacerbate these impacts through
the day.  Models show continued drying of the mid level air but
throughout the day tomorrow to saturate again causing these storms to
occur for another day, focused more towards the Texas Louisiana border
through the Houston area.  The longer range forecast does not show
the ending of this pattern, but the slow dissipation as two high
pressure systems slowly meander out of position that streams moisture
right at the western Gulf coast.

The rest of the area will be fairly dry as an upper level weak ridge
will settle over the plains keeping precipitation chances low.  There
is the possibility of a tropical system developing down south near
the Bay of Campeche, but the current forecast takes the storm into
Mexico well south of Brownsville.  However, some precipitation may
push far enough north to continue the coastal storm parade later in
the week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.5 inches are forecasted by WPC for the central Gulf
coast of Texas.  0.25 inches are possible extending north to the
border.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 inches are
possible for deep south Texas and parts of Mexico contributing to the
lower Rio Grande.  0.25 inches is forecast for most of south Texas if
this tropical storm develops.

Drought persists over Texas and New Mexico.  Statewide, New
Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas
remains in exceptional drought.  Severe drought conditions are
impacting 40% of New Mexico and 34% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in
New Mexico continue to ease the drought conditions in many areas
of the state.  Some runoff can be expected along the immediate Texas
Gulf coast the next 5 days, but minor or no runoff is anticipated
elsewhere.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
River conditions across the WGRFC area remain near or below seasonal
flows. Locally heavy rainfall is occurring along the Texas Gulf Coast
and in southeastern Texas. Runoff is possible in river basins in
these areas. However, no significant flooding is forecast to occur
through the forecast period.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO


$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 301624
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1124 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

                 VALID AUGUST 30 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 4

...TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE COAST BUT NOT MAKING
IT INLAND...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The front from the upper level trough has pushed through as the
trough has now dampened out and become part of the westerlies. The
main impact for today will be the continued onshore flow of tropical
moisture bringing at times heavy precipitation along the coast.  As
much as 3 inches per hour rainfalls have been recorded so far this
morning, but this rainfall has not pushed very far inland.  This
strong stream of moisture is aided by a strong upper level high
pressure system off the Carolina coast causing a consistent flow over
the Gulf towards the Texas and Louisiana Gulf coast.  This should
continue for the next 24 to 48 hours, but no precipitation is
expected to make it very far inland.  The heavier rainfall will be
focused to the east for the lower Sabine and Neches River basins, but
not expected to have an impact at many river sites.  Some out of bank
flooding may occur for the lower Sabine but is not forecasted at this
time.

The coastal rainfall may continue into next week, but not to be as
extreme as yesterday and today.  The rest of the WGRFC looks to have
zonal dry air aloft and will keep the area fairly dry.  Monsoonal
precipitation over New Mexico is even expected to be limited over the
forecast period as the abundance of upper level dry air will limit
thunderstorm development. There is still a small possibility of
another tropical wave reaching the Bay of Campeche which could bring
even more rainfall to south Texas later next week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of an inch are forecasted by WPC for eastern Texas.  A half
an inch is possible for the Gulf coast with 0.25 inches just a few
miles inland.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 inches are
possible for the Brownsville area.

Drought persists over Texas and New Mexico.  Statewide, New
Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas
remains in exceptional drought.  Severe drought conditions are
impacting 40% of New Mexico and 34% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in
New Mexico continue to ease the drought conditions in many areas
of the state.  Some runoff can be expected along the immediate Texas
Gulf coast the next 5 days, but minor or no runoff is anticipated
elsewhere.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
River conditions across the WGRFC area remain near or below seasonal
flows. Locally heavy rainfall is occurring along the Texas Gulf Coast
and in the lower Sabine River basin. Runoff is possible in river
basins in these areas. However, no significant flooding is forecast
to occur through the forecast period.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO


$$







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