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000
AGUS74 KFWR 221638
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1138 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

                 VALID OCTOBER 22 THROUGH OCTOBER 27

...A BRIEF SPELL OF WARM DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge in eastern New Mexico is moving slowly east
across the WGRFC forecast area. A few scattered showers and
thunderstorms have left light amounts of rain over the eastern two
thirds of the state.  This disturbance continues to move east leaving
some light rainfall amounts in far west Texas and the Panhandle. As
this system moves east, rain chances increase in north Texas through
Thursday morning.

As this system exits the area, a subtropical high nudges in from the
desert southwest.  This strong dome of high pressure will be centered
over central New Mexico by Friday afternoon. Thursday and Friday look
mostly dry for the WGRFC area of responsibility as this upper level
ridge builds from the west.  Expect a transition to cooler weather as
a dry cold front pushes through New Mexico on Sunday.

The upper level trough currently located off the Oregon coast will
begin to impact the WGRFC area as early as Monday.  This upper level
system will generate a weak cold front expected to pass through the
area starting Monday evening.  It is worth noting that this system
could result in some upslope snowfall for northern and central New
Mexico. The progress of the system will be monitored and updates
provided throughout the forecast period.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (48%) and 11% has extreme to
exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme
to exceptional drought. No significant rainfall is expected for most
areas within the WGRFC forecast area through the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Rainfall over the past 2 days has pushed Candelaria (CDET2) above
action stage and is expected to fall over the next few hours.
Downstream the Rio Grande (PIOT2) is expected to rise above action
stage over the next few days. This additonal flow should not impact
points further downstream.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC river forecast points are at or below bankfull conditions.
Rainfall forecasted in the next five days will not cause
mainstem river flooding in the WGRFC area.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 221638
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1138 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

                 VALID OCTOBER 22 THROUGH OCTOBER 27

...A BRIEF SPELL OF WARM DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge in eastern New Mexico is moving slowly east
across the WGRFC forecast area. A few scattered showers and
thunderstorms have left light amounts of rain over the eastern two
thirds of the state.  This disturbance continues to move east leaving
some light rainfall amounts in far west Texas and the Panhandle. As
this system moves east, rain chances increase in north Texas through
Thursday morning.

As this system exits the area, a subtropical high nudges in from the
desert southwest.  This strong dome of high pressure will be centered
over central New Mexico by Friday afternoon. Thursday and Friday look
mostly dry for the WGRFC area of responsibility as this upper level
ridge builds from the west.  Expect a transition to cooler weather as
a dry cold front pushes through New Mexico on Sunday.

The upper level trough currently located off the Oregon coast will
begin to impact the WGRFC area as early as Monday.  This upper level
system will generate a weak cold front expected to pass through the
area starting Monday evening.  It is worth noting that this system
could result in some upslope snowfall for northern and central New
Mexico. The progress of the system will be monitored and updates
provided throughout the forecast period.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (48%) and 11% has extreme to
exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme
to exceptional drought. No significant rainfall is expected for most
areas within the WGRFC forecast area through the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Rainfall over the past 2 days has pushed Candelaria (CDET2) above
action stage and is expected to fall over the next few hours.
Downstream the Rio Grande (PIOT2) is expected to rise above action
stage over the next few days. This additonal flow should not impact
points further downstream.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC river forecast points are at or below bankfull conditions.
Rainfall forecasted in the next five days will not cause
mainstem river flooding in the WGRFC area.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 211547
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1046 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

                 VALID OCTOBER 21 THROUGH OCTOBER 26

...THE RIO GRANDE BASIN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MIDWEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge will move slowly east now through Wednesday as a
shortwave trough approaches from the desert southwest. Another upper
level storm is located off the Oregon coast. Both features will
provide energy to increase chances of precipitation over the western
portion of the WGRFC area of responsibility over the next couple of
days. Onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico will also sustain a chance
for precipitation along the lower Texas Gulf Coast and Deep South
Texas through this period.

Over the next 36 hours the more southerly upper level disturbance is
expected to produce showers and thunderstorms along the Rio Grande
from El Paso to Lake Amistad, and in the Trans Pecos. On Wednesday
and Thursday the northern trough is expected to overtake and absorb
the southern disturbance, and lead to a chance for showers and
thunderstorms across eastern New Mexico and western Texas. Thursday
and Friday look mostly dry for the WGRFC area of responsibility as
an upper level ridge builds from the west.

In a longer term, the upper level system now in the Oregon area will
generate a weak cold front to pass through the WGRFC area starting
next Monday evening.  While the models are not in strong agreement
yet about this system, it is worth noting that this system could
result in a significant upslope snow event for northern and central
New Mexico. The progress of the system will be monitored and updates
provided throughout the forecast period.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 are forecast for an area from the Big Bend National
Park northwest into New Mexico above Red Bluff Dam near Carlsbad and
west to El Paso.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 are
forecast for an area between Midland and Lubbock with the heavier
amounts south of Lubbock.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (48%) and 11% has extreme to
exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme
to exceptional drought. No significant rainfall is expected for most
areas within the WGRFC forecast area through the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Localized rainfall near Candelera is causing a brief rise into action
stage as water filters through the area.  This water should move out
of flood category later today and may push Presidio (PIOT2) into
action stage in the next day or so.  Additional localized rainfall
could exacerbate the flooding but no significant flooding is
expected.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC river forecast points are at or below bankfull conditions.
Rainfall forecasted in the next five days will not cause
mainstem river flooding in the WGRFC area.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 211547
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1046 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

                 VALID OCTOBER 21 THROUGH OCTOBER 26

...THE RIO GRANDE BASIN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MIDWEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge will move slowly east now through Wednesday as a
shortwave trough approaches from the desert southwest. Another upper
level storm is located off the Oregon coast. Both features will
provide energy to increase chances of precipitation over the western
portion of the WGRFC area of responsibility over the next couple of
days. Onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico will also sustain a chance
for precipitation along the lower Texas Gulf Coast and Deep South
Texas through this period.

Over the next 36 hours the more southerly upper level disturbance is
expected to produce showers and thunderstorms along the Rio Grande
from El Paso to Lake Amistad, and in the Trans Pecos. On Wednesday
and Thursday the northern trough is expected to overtake and absorb
the southern disturbance, and lead to a chance for showers and
thunderstorms across eastern New Mexico and western Texas. Thursday
and Friday look mostly dry for the WGRFC area of responsibility as
an upper level ridge builds from the west.

In a longer term, the upper level system now in the Oregon area will
generate a weak cold front to pass through the WGRFC area starting
next Monday evening.  While the models are not in strong agreement
yet about this system, it is worth noting that this system could
result in a significant upslope snow event for northern and central
New Mexico. The progress of the system will be monitored and updates
provided throughout the forecast period.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 are forecast for an area from the Big Bend National
Park northwest into New Mexico above Red Bluff Dam near Carlsbad and
west to El Paso.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 are
forecast for an area between Midland and Lubbock with the heavier
amounts south of Lubbock.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (48%) and 11% has extreme to
exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme
to exceptional drought. No significant rainfall is expected for most
areas within the WGRFC forecast area through the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Localized rainfall near Candelera is causing a brief rise into action
stage as water filters through the area.  This water should move out
of flood category later today and may push Presidio (PIOT2) into
action stage in the next day or so.  Additional localized rainfall
could exacerbate the flooding but no significant flooding is
expected.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC river forecast points are at or below bankfull conditions.
Rainfall forecasted in the next five days will not cause
mainstem river flooding in the WGRFC area.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 201559
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1059 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

                 VALID OCTOBER 20 THROUGH OCTOBER 25

...THE RIO GRANDE BASIN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MIDWEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An upper level low is currently located over northeastern Sonora,
Mexico this Monday morning. Another upper level storm is located off
the Oregon coast. Both features will provide forcing for
precipitation over the western portion of the WGRFC area of
responsibility over the next few days. Onshore flow from the Gulf of
Mexico will also keep a chance for precipitation on the Lower Texas
Gulf Coast and Deep South Texas through this period.

Over the next 36 hours the more southerly upper level disturbance is
expected to produce showers and thunderstorms along the Rio Grande
from El Paso to Lake Amistad, and in the Trans Pecos. On Wednesday
and Thursday the northern trough is expected to overtake and absorb
the southern disturbance, and lead to a chance for showers and
thunderstorms across eastern New Mexico and western Texas. Thursday
and Friday look mostly dry for the WGRFC area of responsibility as
an upper level ridge builds from the west.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for the Rio Grande from El
Paso to Lake Amistad and for the Trans Pecos. MAP amounts of less
than 0.25 inch are forecast for Deep South Texas and for most of New
Mexico.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch
are forecast for portions of southern New Mexico and the Trans Pecos.
MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for southwestern
Colorado, northern New Mexico, and Deep South Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch
are forecast for northwestern Texas and for portions of the Trans
Pecos. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for eastern
New Mexico, North Texas, and the rest of the Trans Pecos.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (49%) and 10% has extreme to
exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme
to exceptional drought. The forecasted rainfall is expected to
greatly alleviate drought concerns for the high category drought
areas in Central Texas.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC river forecast points are at or below bankfull conditions.
Overnight rainfall above Candelaria (CDET2) caused a rapid rise to
flood stage. Rainfall forecasted in the next five days will not cause
mainstem river flooding in the WGRFC area.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

PHILPOTT


$$







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