000
AGUS74 KFWR 231534
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1033 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
VALID MAY 23 THROUGH MAY 28
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND...
...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A broad, weak upper level ridge is slowly moving eastward across the
wgrfc area today. A southwest flow aloft pattern with several short
wave disturbances will become the catalyst for potential scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the west from the
Panhandle south to the Big Bend today into Saturday.
The large sprawling closed upper level storm system continues
developing inland over the pacific northwest today with circulation
expanding to central california and northern nevada. This system
will weaken and shift the upper level ridge over the area eastward
through the weekend into early next week with diminishing chances
for precipitation.
...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast from the Texas Panhandle south
to the Big Bend area.
For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches
are forecast from the Texas Panhandle south to the Big Bend area
into northeastern Mexico.
For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches or less
are possible across isolated areas across northeastern Mexico and
most of Texas.
For Sunday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.
THE ONGOING DROUGHT REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE WGRFC
AREA. ABOUT 67 PERCENT OF TEXAS REMAINS IN SEVERE DROUGHT, OR
WORSE, WITH 18 PERCENT CLASSIFIED AS EXCEPTIONAL. IN NEW MEXICO,
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD,
WITH 98 PERCENT OF THE STATE IN SEVERE DROUGHT, OR WORSE, WITH
45 PERCENT CLASSIFIED AS EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT.
...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
River basins within the Sabine river system have receded to their
normal levels. Therefore all WGRFC forecast points are currently
below criteria. No significant flooding is expected over the next 5
days.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov
National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage
The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought
WALLER
$$
000
AGUS74 KFWR 221530
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1030 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
VALID MAY 22 THROUGH MAY 27
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND...
...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS EAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT
NOW CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE TEXAS UPPER GULF
COAST. THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD AND ESTABLISHING A BROAD, WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WGRFC AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW, SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST FROM THE
PANHANDLE SOUTH TO THE BIG BEND THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LARGE SPRAWLING CLOSED UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WITH CIRCULATION EXPANDING TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA EASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.
For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches or less
are forecast across isolated areas of west and Panhandle Texas.
For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches or less
are forecast across west and Panhandle Texas.
For Saturday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.
THE ONGOING DROUGHT REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE WGRFC
AREA. ABOUT 68 PERCENT OF TEXAS REMAINS IN SEVERE DROUGHT, OR
WORSE. IN NEW MEXICO, DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD,
WITH NEARLY 97 PERCENT OF THE STATE IN SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT. LOCALIZED RUNOFF IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IS POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. MAINSTEM
RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Heavy rainfall fell over portions of the upper Sabine River on
yesterday, and caused some minor flooding at Greenville (GNVT2) and
Quinlan (QLAT2). Both basins are currently above flood stage and
are near crest now. They are expected to quickly fall below action
stage later today. No significant rainfall is expected over this
area through the end of the week.
...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Elsewhere, WGRFC forecast points remain below criteria. No
significant flooding is expected over the next 5 days.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov
National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage
The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought
MCKEE
$$
000
AGUS74 KFWR 211307
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
807 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
VALID MAY 21 THROUGH MAY 26
...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE PICTURE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue across eastern Oklahoma for
the remainder of the day. A well advertised upper level storm over
the Central Plains will gradually slide east and weaken over the
next several days. The broad upper level trough of low pressure
over the WGRFC area will also move east, and a weak upper level
ridge will build into the region by Wednesday.
Over the next few days, the upper level trough will weaken as it
slides further east. Precipitation is expected to linger over East
Texas today through Wednesday. Thunderstorm activity will
eventually shift back north and west from the Panhandle south to the
Big Bend Thursday as another strong storm system is expected to move
into the Pacific Coast Thursday. Thunderstorm chances will remain
in place into the weekend.
We will continue to monitor and will update accordingly.
...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1.0 inches are forecast across central and eastern
Texas with higher amounts extending northeastward.
For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.
For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.
For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are
forecast across western Texas and eastern New Mexico.
The ongoing drought remains entrenched across the entire WGRFC
area. About 68 percent of Texas remains in severe drought, or
worse. In New Mexico, drought conditions are even more widespread,
with nearly 97 percent of the state in severe to exceptional
drought. Localized runoff is possible in the stronger
thunderstorms. Widespread significant runoff is possible late
Tuesday and Wednesday for parts of Central and East Texas. Mainstem
river flooding is possible in the heavier rainfall. Widespread
river flooding is not expected.
...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
While isolated showers continue to bring much needed moisture, all
WGRFC forecast points remain below criteria. No significant flooding
is expected over the next 5 days.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov
National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage
The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought
MCKEE
$$
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