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000
AGUS74 KFWR 261623
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1122 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

                   VALID MARCH 26 THROUGH MARCH 31

...RAIN CHANCES WILL END LATER TODAY, THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND OVER THE WGRFC AREA...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A vigorous upper level disturbance is moving southeastward across
Oklahoma and Texas this morning.  This storm pushed a strong
surface cold front through most of Texas the past 24 hours, and this
front is approaching the Gulf coast now. Some showers and
thunderstorms developed along and ahead of this front.  Locally heavy
rain fell north of the WGRFC area over Oklahoma and Arkansas.  But
due to the speed of this storm system the rainfall amounts in
Texas were all under 0.75 of an inch.  By this evening the upper
trough and cold front will move out of the WGRFC area and the rainfall
will move east out of the region.

By Friday a large ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over
the western third of the U.S.  This ridge will move slowly eastward
and will be located over western Texas by Monday morning.  This will
keep the WGRFC area dry from this evening through the weekend.

The ridge should begin to weaken on Monday.  This will allow a weak
cold front to approach our region from the north, and this front may
produce a few showers over northeast Texas.  Meanwhile, a new
storm is forecast to form over Baja California.  This storm is
forecast to move eastward, and it will bring another chance for rain
to parts of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and southwest Texas later
Monday into Tuesday morning. A better chance for showers and
thunderstorms exists for Texas just beyond this five-day forecast
period.

                   ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for extreme southeast Texas
into southern Louisiana, and near the Rio Grande from Brownsville
into northeast Mexico.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are
forecast over the southeast third of Texas and Louisiana.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
are forecast over extreme northeast Texas, and south of the Rio
Grande in northeast Mexico. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch
are forecast over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado, over
the northeast third of Texas into northern Louisiana, and along the
lower Rio Grande from south of Midland through Del Rio to Brownsville.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (36%), and about 14% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, about two thirds of
the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (62%).  Lake
levels in these extreme drought areas are at or near historical
lows for this time of year.  Recent precipitation events have brought
some drought relief, with no drought remaining over deep south, east
central and southeast Texas into western Louisiana.  The rainfall
which is forecast the next five days over the WGRFC area will not be
heavy enough to create new or additional runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Routed water is forecast to keep Bloomington (DUPT2) above moderate
flood level for a few more days. Victoria (VICT2) is also above
bankfull levels but continues to fall.

...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Most of the Sabine River mainstem from Mineola (MLAT2) downstream to
Logansport (LPTL1) continues within minor flood levels.  At Toledo
Bend  Reservoir, pool elevations continue to slowly fall back toward
conservation as releases are holding at 35,000 cfs. Below the
reservoir, these flows are generating moderate flood conditions
downstream along the mainstem at Bon Wier (BWRT2) and Deweyville
(DWYT2).

...San Bernard Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher flows occurred near East Bernard (EBBT2) is still above
bankfull levels but receding.  A secondary rise crested into minor
flood stage near Boling (BOLT2).  This reach of the river is
expected to remain high over the next few days. Sweeny (SWYT2) will
also fluctuate above action stage for several days.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Widespread minor flooding continues throughout the Neches and
Angelina River mainstems and associated bayous.  Although minor
flood conditions will continue through this week, most have crested
and are slowly receding.  Sam Rayburn Reservoir has resumed limited
generation that will allow flood storage to be slowly evacuated.
Lake Steinhagen   releases will continue to hold at 20,000 cfs until
Sam Rayburn Lake  is able to completely evacuate the flood pool,
likely via generation.  This process is expected to take several
weeks.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The lower Trinity is still experiencing higher than normal flows due
to recent rainfall.  Bankfull flooding is still occurring at Liberty
(LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2) but are in recession with no
significant rainfall in the forecast..

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The Navasota River near Normangee (NGET2) and the Brazos at Richmond
(RMOT2) are still above bankfull and continue to fall.

...San Jacinto Basin...
The west Fork San Jacinto River near Humble (HMMT2) has risen around
bankfull and is expected to remain near bankfull stage for a few
days.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils are very wet over east and southeast Texas after the recent
rainfall episode. Other basins remain relatively dry with flows
remaining low. No significant rainfall is in the forecast for the
next 5 days or so.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$






000
AGUS74 KFWR 251558
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1058 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

                   VALID MARCH 25 THROUGH MARCH 30

...RAIN CHANCES EXIST THROUGH MID-DAY THURSDAY, THEN DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND OVER THE WGRFC AREA...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The next chance of precipitation for the WGRFC area will begin later
this afternoon and continue into early Thursday afternoon.  A fairly
vigorous upper level disturbance is moving southeastward out of
Wyoming into Colorado this morning and will move across Oklahoma and
Texas later tonight into Thursday.  This will cause a strong surface
cold front to push its way through Texas towards the coast through
Thursday, and a dry line will push east into central Texas from the
west later this afternoon and evening.  With a warm, moist southerly
flow out ahead of the dry line and front, some showers and
thunderstorms will develop.  There may be an area with the right
ingredients for severe weather over parts of north Texas late
today, but the better chance for severe weather and locally heavy
rain will be north of the WGRFC area over Oklahoma.  Although
thunderstorms are forecast, only light amounts of precipitation are
expected over the southeastern half of Texas as the front pushes
southward during the late Wednesday/Thursday time frame.  By Thursday
evening the upper trough and cold front will move out of the WGRFC
area and the rainfall will move east.

By Friday a large ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over
the western third of the U.S.  This ridge will move slowly eastward
and will be located over western Texas by Monday morning.  This will
keep the WGRFC area dry from late Thursday through the weekend.

The ridge should begin to weaken on Monday, and a new storm is
forecast to form over Baja California.  As this storm moves eastward
it will bring another chance for rain to the WGRFC area beyond the
current 5-day forecast period.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for extreme north central
and northeast Texas, as well as over a small part of extreme northern
New Mexico into southern Colorado.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch
are forecast over a good part of Texas, northwest Louisiana,
northeastern New Mexico, and most of Colorado.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for extreme southeast Texas into southern Louisiana, and
along and south of the Rio Grande from near Brownsville to Falcon
Reservoir. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over
the southeast third of Texas and Louisiana.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch
are forecast over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (40%), and about 14% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, more than two thirds of
the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (73%).  Lake
levels in these exceptional drought areas are at or near historical
lows for this time of year.  Recent precipitation events have brought
some drought relief, with no drought remaining over east central and
southeast Texas into western Louisiana.  The rainfall which is
forecast the next five days over the WGRFC area will generally not be
heavy enough to create significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Routed water is forecast to keep Bloomington (DUPT2) above moderate
flood level for a few more days. Otherwise, the river is recovering
from the last rain event and returning to baseflow.

...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Most of the Sabine River mainstem from Mineola (MLAT2) downstream to
Logansport (LPTL1) are within minor flood levels.  At Toledo Bend
Reservoir, pool elevations continue to slowly fall back toward
conservation as releases are holding at 35,000 cfs. Below the
reservoir, these flows are generating moderate flood conditions
downstream along the mainstem at Bon Wier (BWRT2) and Deweyville
(DWYT2).

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The lower Trinity is still experiencing higher than normal flows due
to recent rainfall.  Bankfull to minor flooding is still occurring
at Liberty (LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2) but are in recession with
no significant rainfall in the forecast..

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Widespread minor flooding continues throughout the Neches and
Angelina River mainstems and associated bayous.  Although minor
flood conditions will continue through this week, most have crested
and are slowly receding.  Sam Rayburn Reservoir continues to
capture inflows with all generation stopped.  Lake Steinhagen
releases will continue to hold at 20,000 cfs until Sam Rayburn Lake
is able to evacuate the flood pool, likely via generation.  This
process is expected to take several weeks.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher flows occurred near East Bernard (EBBT2) with a crest into
minor flooding category.  This reach is still above bankfull levels
but receding.  A secondary rise into minor flood stage is forecast
for Boling (BOLT2) over the next couple of days.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The west Fork San Jacinto River near Humble (HMMT2) is forecast to
rise and remain near bankfull stage for a few days.  The West Fork
San Jacinto near Porter (PTET2) has crested and still above
bankfull. The East Fork San Jacinto River near  Cleveland (CLDT2)
has also risen above bankfull crested yesterday. Other portions of
the basin are  experiencing higher flows with little or no
significant flooding expected.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Recent rainfall has generated higher than normal flow across the
lower Brazos River and its tributaries.  The Navasota River near
Normangee (NGET2) and the Brazos at Richmond (RMOT2) are still above
bankfull but falling.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most river systems draining eastern and southern Texas are still
experiencing higher flows within near flood or minor flood levels,
with a few isolated areas within moderate flood level.  Soils are
saturated in these areas.  Recent rainfall has greatly added much
needed flows into area lakes.  However, most reservoirs west of I-35
corridor remain well below conservation levels. No significant
rainfall is in the forecast for the next 5 days or so.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 251558
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1058 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

                   VALID MARCH 25 THROUGH MARCH 30

...RAIN CHANCES EXIST THROUGH MID-DAY THURSDAY, THEN DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND OVER THE WGRFC AREA...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The next chance of precipitation for the WGRFC area will begin later
this afternoon and continue into early Thursday afternoon.  A fairly
vigorous upper level disturbance is moving southeastward out of
Wyoming into Colorado this morning and will move across Oklahoma and
Texas later tonight into Thursday.  This will cause a strong surface
cold front to push its way through Texas towards the coast through
Thursday, and a dry line will push east into central Texas from the
west later this afternoon and evening.  With a warm, moist southerly
flow out ahead of the dry line and front, some showers and
thunderstorms will develop.  There may be an area with the right
ingredients for severe weather over parts of north Texas late
today, but the better chance for severe weather and locally heavy
rain will be north of the WGRFC area over Oklahoma.  Although
thunderstorms are forecast, only light amounts of precipitation are
expected over the southeastern half of Texas as the front pushes
southward during the late Wednesday/Thursday time frame.  By Thursday
evening the upper trough and cold front will move out of the WGRFC
area and the rainfall will move east.

By Friday a large ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over
the western third of the U.S.  This ridge will move slowly eastward
and will be located over western Texas by Monday morning.  This will
keep the WGRFC area dry from late Thursday through the weekend.

The ridge should begin to weaken on Monday, and a new storm is
forecast to form over Baja California.  As this storm moves eastward
it will bring another chance for rain to the WGRFC area beyond the
current 5-day forecast period.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for extreme north central
and northeast Texas, as well as over a small part of extreme northern
New Mexico into southern Colorado.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch
are forecast over a good part of Texas, northwest Louisiana,
northeastern New Mexico, and most of Colorado.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for extreme southeast Texas into southern Louisiana, and
along and south of the Rio Grande from near Brownsville to Falcon
Reservoir. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over
the southeast third of Texas and Louisiana.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch
are forecast over northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (40%), and about 14% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, more than two thirds of
the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (73%).  Lake
levels in these exceptional drought areas are at or near historical
lows for this time of year.  Recent precipitation events have brought
some drought relief, with no drought remaining over east central and
southeast Texas into western Louisiana.  The rainfall which is
forecast the next five days over the WGRFC area will generally not be
heavy enough to create significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Routed water is forecast to keep Bloomington (DUPT2) above moderate
flood level for a few more days. Otherwise, the river is recovering
from the last rain event and returning to baseflow.

...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Most of the Sabine River mainstem from Mineola (MLAT2) downstream to
Logansport (LPTL1) are within minor flood levels.  At Toledo Bend
Reservoir, pool elevations continue to slowly fall back toward
conservation as releases are holding at 35,000 cfs. Below the
reservoir, these flows are generating moderate flood conditions
downstream along the mainstem at Bon Wier (BWRT2) and Deweyville
(DWYT2).

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The lower Trinity is still experiencing higher than normal flows due
to recent rainfall.  Bankfull to minor flooding is still occurring
at Liberty (LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2) but are in recession with
no significant rainfall in the forecast..

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Widespread minor flooding continues throughout the Neches and
Angelina River mainstems and associated bayous.  Although minor
flood conditions will continue through this week, most have crested
and are slowly receding.  Sam Rayburn Reservoir continues to
capture inflows with all generation stopped.  Lake Steinhagen
releases will continue to hold at 20,000 cfs until Sam Rayburn Lake
is able to evacuate the flood pool, likely via generation.  This
process is expected to take several weeks.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher flows occurred near East Bernard (EBBT2) with a crest into
minor flooding category.  This reach is still above bankfull levels
but receding.  A secondary rise into minor flood stage is forecast
for Boling (BOLT2) over the next couple of days.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The west Fork San Jacinto River near Humble (HMMT2) is forecast to
rise and remain near bankfull stage for a few days.  The West Fork
San Jacinto near Porter (PTET2) has crested and still above
bankfull. The East Fork San Jacinto River near  Cleveland (CLDT2)
has also risen above bankfull crested yesterday. Other portions of
the basin are  experiencing higher flows with little or no
significant flooding expected.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Recent rainfall has generated higher than normal flow across the
lower Brazos River and its tributaries.  The Navasota River near
Normangee (NGET2) and the Brazos at Richmond (RMOT2) are still above
bankfull but falling.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most river systems draining eastern and southern Texas are still
experiencing higher flows within near flood or minor flood levels,
with a few isolated areas within moderate flood level.  Soils are
saturated in these areas.  Recent rainfall has greatly added much
needed flows into area lakes.  However, most reservoirs west of I-35
corridor remain well below conservation levels. No significant
rainfall is in the forecast for the next 5 days or so.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 241612
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1111 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

                   VALID MARCH 24 THROUGH MARCH 29

...SMALL RAIN CHANCES EXIST THROUGH MID-WEEK, THEN DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND OVER THE WGRFC AREA...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A zonal upper air flow exists across the WGRFC area this morning.
Embedded in this flow are a couple of upper air disturbances which
will move across our region this afternoon through Thursday.  One weak
upper level trough will move across extreme north Texas and Oklahoma
this afternoon.  This trough will attempt to push a front down towards
the Red River as a dry line pushes east into central Texas from the
west.  With a warm, moist southerly flow out ahead of the boundary, it
will create an area with the right ingredients for severe weather.
More than likely these storms will stay to the north of the WGRFC
area, but there is a small chance that these storms could push south
towards the DFW metroplex northeastward.  The rest of the WGRFC area
should remain dry.

The next chance of precipitation comes Wednesday afternoon into
early Thursday afternoon.  A slightly stronger upper level disturbance
will move southeastward out of the central Rockies and will move
across Oklahoma and Texas.  This will cause a stronger surface
cold front to push its way through Texas towards the coast through
Thursday, and a dry line will push east into central Texas from the
west.  With a warm, moist southerly flow out ahead of the dry line
and front, some showers and thunderstorms will develop.  Similar
to this afternoon, there may be an area with the right ingredients
for severe weather over north Texas late Wednesday.  Although
thunderstorms are forecast, only light amounts of precipitation are
expected over the southeastern half of Texas as the front pushes
southward throughout the late Wednesday/Thursday time frame.  By
Thursday night the upper trough and cold front will move out of the
WGRFC area and the rainfall will move east.

By Friday a large ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over
the western third of the U.S.  This ridge will move slowly eastward
and will be located over western New Mexico and western Colorado by
Sunday morning.  This will keep the WGRFC area dry from late Thursday
through the weekend.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over extreme
northern Texas along and near the Red River.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for north central Texas, as well as over extreme
northern New Mexico into southern Colorado.  MAP amounts of less than
0.25 of an inch are forecast over most of Texas and the eastern half
of New Mexico.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for extreme southeast Texas into southern Louisiana, and
over deep south Texas near Brownsville and Falcon Reservoir.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the southeast
third of Texas and Louisiana.

For Friday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (40%), and about 14% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, more than two thirds of
the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (73%).  Lake
levels in these exceptional drought areas are at or near historical
lows for this time of year.  Recent precipitation events have brought
some drought relief.  The rainfall which is forecast the next five
days over most of Texas will generally not be heavy enough to create
more runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The lower tributaries of the Guadalupe River are finally cresting
and that water is moving into the mainstem as it makes its way
to the Gulf of Mexico.  This routed water is forecast to keep
Bloomington (DUPT2) above moderate flood level for most of the week.

...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Most of the Sabine River mainstem from Mineola (MLAT2) downstream to
Logansport (LPTL1) are within minor flood levels.  At Toledo Bend
Reservoir, pool elevations above conservation continue (near 173
feet), but is now slowly falling and releases are holding at 35,000
cfs. Below the reservoir, these flows are generating moderate flood
conditions downstream along the mainstem at Bon Wier (BWRT2) and
Deweyville (DWYT2). No additional significant rainfall is expected
over the next 5 days.

...Lavaca-Navidad Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher than normal flows are occurring in the basin but are in
recession.  Minor flooding is occurring today along the Navidad
River at Strane Park near Edna (LSNT2). This reach of the river
should crest today and begin to fall rapidly.

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The lower Trinity is still experiencing higher than normal flows due
to recent rainfall.  Bankfull to minor flooding is still occurring
at a few locations but are in recession with no significant rainfall
in the forecast..

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Widespread minor flooding continues throughout the Neches and
Angelina River mainstems and associated bayous.  Although minor
flood conditions will continue through this week, most have crested
and are slowly receding.  Sam Rayburn Reservoir continues to
capture inflows with all generation stopped.  Lake Steinhagen
releases will continue to hold at 20,000 cfs until Sam Rayburn Lake
is able to evacuate the flood pool, likely via generation.  This
process is expected to take several weeks.  No additional
significant rainfall is expected in the next 5 days.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher flows occurred near East Bernard (EBBT2) with  a crest into
minor flooding category.  This reach is still above minor flood
levels but receding. A secondary rise into minor flood stage is
forecast for Boling (BOLT2) over the next couple of days.

...Nueces Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Recent rainfall has caused higher than normal flows on parts of the
middle Nueces River Basin.  The Nueces near Three Rivers (THET2) has
risen above bankfull and near crest now. It should begin to fall
later today.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The west  Fork San Jacinto River near Humble (HMMT2) is forecast to
rise and remain near bankfull stage for a few days.  The West Fork
San Jacinto near Porter (PTET2) has risen above bankfull and is
expected to crest tomorrow.  The East Fork San Jacinto River near
Cleveland (CLDT2) has also risen above bankfull overnight and is
expected to crest tomorrow. Other portions of the basin are
experiencing higher flows with little of no significant flooding
expected.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Recent rainfall has generated higher than normal flow across the
lower Brazos River and its tributaries.  Forecast river stages are
expected to remain below flood stage.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
The San Antonio River at Goliad (GLIT2) crested slightly above minor
flood levels and will rapidly recede over the next 24 hours below
bankfull.

...Colorado Basin...
The Colorado River at Wharton (WHAT2) has now receded below bankfull
and is still falling.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most river systems draining eastern and southern Texas are still
experiencing higher flows within near flood or minor flood levels,
with a few isolated areas within moderate flood level.  Soils are
saturated in these areas.  Recent rainfall has greatly added much
needed flows into area lakes.  However, most reservoirs west of I-35
corridor remain well below conservation levels. No significant
rainfall is in the forecast for the next 5 days or so.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$






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