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000
AGUS74 KFWR 061651
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1151 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

                    VALID JULY 6 THROUGH JULY 11

...FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES BRINGING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO
NORTH TEXAS OVER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The upper level trough that is pulling the frontal boundary south is
currently pushing through the upper northern plains.  The front that
extends over the majority of the central part of the United States
is locally located in the panhandle regions of Oklahoma and Texas.
Over the next 12 to 18 hours as it pushes south and east storms
should generate along the boundary.  These storms will have
sufficient moisture from air that has been streaming in from the
south all weekend pulling Gulf air into northern Texas and Oklahoma.
The slow progression of this front will keep the rain in the area
for 24 to 36 hours as some models have the front stalling slightly
Tuesday evening.  Rain chances in northern Texas will remain
prevalent well into Wednesday before the front finally pushes far
enough east to not be an impact to the WGRFC area.

The primary threat area is forecasted to stay to the north of the
river systems covered by the WGRFC.  However, slight shifts to the
forecast are possible and significant rainfall may slip into some
areas that are still draining water from the heavy rainfall
from May.  However, the probability of significant widespread
rainfall over the northern Trinity River is low at this time as
Oklahoma and the Red River seem to be in for the majority of the
heavy rainfall.  Additionally, this does not appear to be the
beginning of a rainfall pattern, as the ridge of high pressure will
settle back into place after the front pushes out Wednesday bringing
back dry and warm conditions for the northern portion of Texas.

During this time, monsoonal rainfall over the New Mexico area should
continue and possibly even be slightly enhanced, while the rest of
the WGRFC will have just a slight chance of an isolated shower,
particularly near the Gulf Coast.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of

Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full
and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules.
Soil moisture remains high across much of Texas from rainfall over
the past two months.  Rainfall over the next five days in primarily
southeastern Texas may be enough to cause some runoff locally, but
significant, widespread runoff is not expected. Rainfall intensities
and potential runoff will be monitored.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Flooding continues along the Trinity River mainstem. A wave of minor
flooding is working its way down the middle Trinity River. Trinidad
(TDDT2) has fallen to minor flood and Long Lake (LOLT2) is at minor
flood levels and falling. Several north Texas lakes are making
changes to releases to return to desired conservation pool levels.

Riverside (RVRT2) has begun rising slightly into minor flood stage.
Lake Livingston has been holding at 28,400 cfs outflow for several
days, but an increase is possible this next week due to increasing
inflows. For now, levels continue to fall downstream at Liberty
(LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2).

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues only on the Neches River near Town Bluff
(TBFT2). There is still significant flood water in Sam Rayburn
Reservoir which is above the flood pool; therefore releases will
continue for several weeks and will keep Town Bluff within minor
flood.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues at Mineola (MLAT2) and  Deweyville (DWYT2).
Toledo Bend Reservoir will not do any power generation today.  This
will create fluctuations in stage downstream at Burkeville and  Bon
Wier this week,

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
All locations along the river are now below minor flood levels.
However, flows along the river system will remain elevated above
normal because of the releases from the upstream lakes

...Guadalupe Basin...
Canyon Lake has reduced releases which will lower the remaining
forecasts as that reduced flow pushes downstream. Bloomington
(DUPT2) has fallen below criteria.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Monsoonal rains continue in New Mexico with some areal and flash
flooding where locally heavy rains occur from daily convective
activity. Elsewhere, flows tend to be near seasonal with exceptions
noted in specific basins.

Refer to the Meteorological discussion for rain chances over the
next 5 days.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO


$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 051613
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1112 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

                    VALID JULY 5 THROUGH JULY 10

...ONE MORE DAY OF SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN BEFORE SHIFT OCCURS...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The summer ridge continues to sit over the New Mexico area which for
one more day will allow for monsoonal rainfall to develop over New
Mexico.  The pattern has also been conducive for coastal showers to
pop up over south east Texas in the afternoon hours and there is the
potential for that to continue today.  Otherwise, the most of the
WGRFC area will remain dry for today with similar temperatures as
the previous few days.

There is an upper level trough pushing through the northern plains
that is strong enough to push a cool air mass south towards the
Texas Oklahoma border.  This front should begin impacting parts of
the WGRFC area tomorrow as the frontal boundary will be pushing
through the pan handle in about 24 to 36 hours.  The warm moist air
accumulating the past several days over Oklahoma and Texas will be
lifted by the boundary creating some decent heavy rainfall storms
along the front.  This should push through Monday night into Tuesday
down towards the northern Texas area.  The upper level trough does
begin to lift northward as it moves east on Tuesday which will keep
the cold front from diving into central Texas.  So for now
precipitation is expected for north central Texas moving eastward of
north eastern Texas.

During this time, monsoonal rainfall over the New Mexico area should
continue while the rest of the WGRFC will have just a slight chance
of an isolated shower, particularly near the Gulf Coast.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 is possible over northern New Mexico and southern
Colorado.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of an inch are possible
over north central Texas, with amounts decreasing southward with
0.25 inches possible as far south as the Big Bend region.  0.5 to an
inch are also possible over northern New Mexico and southern
Colorado area.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 2 to 3 inches are
forecasted by WPC over north central Texas with 0.5 inches possible
south to the Big Bend area.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are
forecasted for most of New Mexico as well as far west Texas.

Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full
and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules.
Soil moisture remains high across much of Texas from rainfall over
the past two months.  Rainfall over the next five days in primarily
southeastern Texas may be enough to cause some runoff locally, but
significant, widespread runoff is not expected. Rainfall intensities
and potential runoff will be monitored.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Flooding continues along the Trinity River mainstem.  Minor flooding
will continue for some time as travel time from Dallas to Lake
Livingston averages about 2 weeks. A wave of minor flooding is
working its way down the middle Trinity River. Trinidad (TDDT2) has
fallen to minor flood and Long Lake (LOLT2) is at minor flood levels
and falling. Riverside (RVRT2) has begun rising slightly into minor
flood stage.   Lake Livingston has been holding at 28,400 cfs
outflow for several days, but an increase is possible
this next week due to increasing inflows. For now, levels continue
to fall downstream at Liberty (LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2).

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Canyon Lake has reduced releases which will lower the remaining
forecasts as that reduced flow pushes downstream.  Still elevated
flow expected at Victoria (VICT2) and Bloomington (DUPT2) through
forecast period.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues only on the Neches River near Town Bluff
(TBFT2). There is still significant flood water in Sam Rayburn
Reservoir which is above the flood pool; therefore releases will
continue for several weeks and will keep Town Bluff within minor
flood.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues at Mineola (MLAT2) and  Deweyville (DWYT2).
Toledo Bend Reservoir will not do any power gen today or Sunday.
This will create fluctuations in stage downstream at Burkeville and
Bon Wier this week,

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
All locations along the river are now below minor flood levels.
However, flows along the river system will remain elevated above
normal because of the releases from the upstream lakes

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Monsoonal rains continue in New Mexico with some areal and flash
flooding where locally heavy rains occur from daily convective
activity. Elsewhere, flows tend to be near seasonal with exceptions
noted in specific basins.

Refer to the Meteorological discussion for rain chances over the
next 5 days.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO


$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 041607
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1106 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

                     VALID JULY 4 THROUGH JULY 9

...MONSOONAL RAINFALL TO CONTINUE OUT WEST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER TEXAS FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND BUT RAIN TO RETURN NEXT WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Ridge continues to sit over the New Mexico area which will allow
the monsoonal flow to generate through the weekend.  Coastal
isolated storms are expected to develop over southeastern Texas
today and tomorrow during the afternoon and evening hours.  The
rest of the area may see an isolated shower but should be dry for
the majority of the weekend.

Next week a forecast for a frontal boundary could bring a line of
showers and thunderstorms from the Big Bend area through the
panhandle into Oklahoma.   This boundary will interact with strong
low level moisture advection in the lower levels while moisture
remaining available aloft to limit the capability of the cap to
reduce storm initiation.  The heaviest of the rainfall will be
concentrated to the north of the WGRFC area with the current
forecast, but the rain will stretch down into the area Monday into
Tuesday as it moves west to east.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 are possible for isolated areas of New Mexico.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 for northern New
Mexico and southern Colorado are forecasted.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to an inch are
possible for northcentral Texas with close to an inch also possible
for northern New Mexico area.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 inches are
forecasted for northcentral and western Texas.  An inch is
forecasted for areas near El Paso into New Mexico with 0.5 inches
possible for northern New Mexico.

Many lakes, especially over the northeastern half of Texas, are full
and are releasing water according to regulation rules and schedules.
Soil moisture remains high across much of Texas from rainfall over
the past two months.  Rainfall over the next five days in primarily
southeastern Texas may be enough to cause some runoff locally, but
significant, widespread runoff is not expected. Rainfall intensities
and potential runoff will be monitored.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Widespread flooding continues along the Trinity River mainstem.
Flood stages will continue for some time as travel time from Dallas
to Lake Livingston averages about 2 weeks. A wave of minor flooding
is working its way down the middle Trinity River. Trinidad (TDDT2)
has fallen to minor flood and Long Lake (LOLT2) is at minor flood
levels and falling. Riverside (RVRT2) has begun rising slightly into
minor flood stage.   Lake Livingston has been holding at 28,400 cfs
outflow for several days, but an increase is possible next week due
to increasing inflows. For now, levels continue to fall downstream
at Liberty (LBYT2) and Moss Bluff (MBFT2).

...Guadalupe Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Canyon Lake has reduced releases which will lower the remaining
forecasts as that reduced flow pushes downstream.  Still elevated
flow expected at Victoria (VICT2) and Bloomington (DUPT2) through
forecast period.

...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues only on the Neches River near Town Bluff
(TBFT2). There is still significant flood water in Sam Rayburn
Reservoir which is above the flood pool; therefore releases will
continue for several weeks and will keep Town Bluff within minor
flood.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues at Mineola (MLAT2) and  Deweyville (DWYT2).
Toledo Bend Reservoir will not do any power gen today or Sunday.
This will create fluctuations in stage downstream at Burkeville and
Bon Wier this week, and falling stages at Deweyville by next
weekend.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
All locations along the river are now below minor flood levels.
However, flows along the river system will remain elevated above
normal because of the releases from the upstream lakes

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain wetter than  normal over much of the WGRFC area. Higher
than normal flows should be the norm throughout the area.  Monsoonal
rains continue in New Mexico with some areal and flash  flooding
where locally heavy rains occur from daily convective  activity.
Refer to the Meteorological discussion for rain chances over the
next 5 days.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO


$$







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