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000
AGUS74 KFWR 201559
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1059 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

                 VALID OCTOBER 20 THROUGH OCTOBER 25

...THE RIO GRANDE BASIN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MIDWEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An upper level low is currently located over northeastern Sonora,
Mexico this Monday morning. Another upper level storm is located off
the Oregon coast. Both features will provide forcing for
precipitation over the western portion of the WGRFC area of
responsibility over the next few days. Onshore flow from the Gulf of
Mexico will also keep a chance for precipitation on the Lower Texas
Gulf Coast and Deep South Texas through this period.

Over the next 36 hours the more southerly upper level disturbance is
expected to produce showers and thunderstorms along the Rio Grande
from El Paso to Lake Amistad, and in the Trans Pecos. On Wednesday
and Thursday the northern trough is expected to overtake and absorb
the southern disturbance, and lead to a chance for showers and
thunderstorms across eastern New Mexico and western Texas. Thursday
and Friday look mostly dry for the WGRFC area of responsibility as
an upper level ridge builds from the west.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for the Rio Grande from El
Paso to Lake Amistad and for the Trans Pecos. MAP amounts of less
than 0.25 inch are forecast for Deep South Texas and for most of New
Mexico.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch
are forecast for portions of southern New Mexico and the Trans Pecos.
MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for southwestern
Colorado, northern New Mexico, and Deep South Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch
are forecast for northwestern Texas and for portions of the Trans
Pecos. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for eastern
New Mexico, North Texas, and the rest of the Trans Pecos.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (49%) and 10% has extreme to
exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme
to exceptional drought. The forecasted rainfall is expected to
greatly alleviate drought concerns for the high category drought
areas in Central Texas.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC river forecast points are at or below bankfull conditions.
Overnight rainfall above Candelaria (CDET2) caused a rapid rise to
flood stage. Rainfall forecasted in the next five days will not cause
mainstem river flooding in the WGRFC area.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

PHILPOTT


$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 191617
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1116 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

                 VALID OCTOBER 19 THROUGH OCTOBER 24

...THE RIO GRANDE BASIN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MIDWEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An upper level low is currently located over the northern Baja
Peninsula. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms has already
developed in southwestern New Mexico in advance of this system. The
low will move slowly eastward through Tuesday before dissipating,
bringing rainfall to southern New Mexico, the Rio Grande from El Paso
to Big Bend, and the Rio Conchos basin in Chihuahua, Mexico throughout
this period.

Onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico has also resulted in locally
heavy rainfall in northeastern Mexico along the Rio Grande from
Lake Amistad to Brownsville. Rainfall is expected to continue in this
area over the next few days due to continued moisture feed as well as
support from the approaching upper level system.

Midweek an upper level trough is expected to move northeastward across
the northern Rockies. This will bring a chance for rainfall to
Colorado, New Mexico and western Texas Tuesday through Friday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for portions of northeastern
Mexico that supply the Rio Grande. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch
are forecast for southwestern New Mexico. MAP amounts of less than
0.25 inch are forecast for the rest of New Mexico, southern Colorado,
and areas of Texas that supply the Rio Grande.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
forecast near the Rio Grande from El Paso to Big Bend. MAP amounts of
0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for southern New Mexico and the Trans
Pecos region of Texas. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for most of the rest of New Mexico, southern Colorado, and
western and southern Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch
are forecast for portions of the Trans Pecos region of Texas and for
southeastern New Mexico. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for the rest of the Rio Grande drainage basin from
southern Colorado to Brownsville.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
forecast for the western half of Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5
inch are forecast for eastern New Mexico.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (49%) and 10% has extreme to
exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme
to exceptional drought. The forecasted rainfall is expected to
greatly alleviate drought concerns for the high category drought
areas in Central Texas.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC river forecast points are at or below bankfull conditions.
Rainfall occurred overnight in Mexico in the Rio San Juan basin which
contributes to the Rio Grande below Lake Falcon.  WGRFC will monitor
conditions in this area.  Elsewhere in the WGRFC area, rainfall
forecasted in the next five days will not cause mainstem river
flooding.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

PHILPOTT


$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 181620
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1120 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

                 VALID OCTOBER 18 THROUGH OCTOBER 23

...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGHOUT NEW MEXICO AND ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE IN TEXAS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A weak disturbance behind an upper level ridge is crossing
northeastward across New Mexico today. Generally light rainfall
amounts are being observed especially in the eastern and southern
portions of the state. This disturbance is expected to exit the area
to the northeast today, bringing a temporary end to precipitation in
New Mexico.

Onshore flow along the lower Texas Gulf Coast is occurring due to low
pressure in the Bay of Campeche. This is producing showers and
thunderstorms with locally heavy rain near the coast. This activity is
expected to continue in Deep South Texas today and move westward
to the Rio Grande tonight.

A more significant upper level disturbance is currently moving
onshore over California. This system is forecast to shift slowly
eastward over northwestern Mexico over the weekend and early next
week. Renewed shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected in New
Mexico, Colorado, and the Trans Pecos region of Texas from Sunday
through Tuesday as the disturbance approaches the area. Another upper
level trough is forecast to move over the northwestern United States
mid-week, bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms to New
Mexico and Colorado.

Continued onshore flow will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms along the Texas Gulf Coast throughout the forecast
period.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for portions of Deep South
Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley. MAP amounts of less than 0.25
inch are forecast for New Mexico, southern Colorado, and northwestern
Texas.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of up to 0.5 inch are
forecast for the Rio Grande from Elephant Butte to Brownsville and for
portions of Southern Colorado and northern New Mexico.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
forecast for the Rio Grande between El Paso and Presidio. MAP amounts
of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for portions of southeastern New
Mexico and for the rest of the Trans Pecos region of Texas. MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of eastern
and southern New Mexico and for the Texas Gulf Coast.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
forecast for New Mexico and southern Colorado. MAP amounts of 0.25 to
0.5 inch are forecast for the Texas Panhandle and northern Trans
Pecos region of Texas. MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast
for Deep South Texas and for the rest of western Texas.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (49%) and 10% has extreme to
exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme
to exceptional drought. The forecasted rainfall is expected to
greatly alleviate drought concerns for the high category drought
areas in Central Texas.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC river forecast points are at or below bankfull conditions.
Rainfall forecasted in the next five days will not cause mainstem river
flooding.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

PHILPOTT


$$







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