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000
AGUS74 KFWR 201621
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1121 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

                  VALID AUGUST 20 THROUGH AUGUST 25

...PRECIPITATION IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER TEXAS WHILE THE MONSOON
CONTINUES OVER NEW MEXICO...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A persistent upper air low pressure system is moving northeastward
this morning and is located west of the DFW metroplex.  This
disturbance has brought periods of showers and thunderstorms to
central and southwest Texas the past 3 days.  The heaviest rainfall of
over 4.00 inches was noted near Roosevelt TX the past 24 hours. This
upper low is producing a few showers over extreme north Texas and
southern Oklahoma this morning.  This disturbance is forecast to drift
over Oklahoma and will weaken today.  Therefore, the rainfall over
Texas will diminish.  Additionally, thunderstorms developed along the
seabreeze front over southeast Texas Tuesday afternoon, and this area
of rain moved northward into the early evening.  Some locally heavy
rain of 2 to 4 inches was noted from these thunderstorms in and around
the Beaumont TX area.

An upper level ridge of high pressure is expected to slowly shift
westward and strengthen over the northern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday.
Meanwhile, a strong upper level system will be developing over
southern California. The high will move over the lower Mississippi
River valley through the week before drifting north to the western
Ohio valley over the weekend.  This will keep conditions very warm and
dry for most of Texas into Monday morning. Elsewhere, monsoonal
rainfall activity is forecast to continue over portions of New Mexico,
especially by Friday and Saturday as the upper low from California
moves northeastward. And the sea breeze will persist over the Gulf
coast and southeast Texas, producing scattered thundershowers during
the afternoon hours each day for the next 5 days. But no significant
rainfall is expected.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of far southwest
Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of
southern Colorado, northwest and southern New Mexico, southwest Texas,
as well as along the middle and upper Texas Gulf coast into southern
Louisiana.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of far southwest Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch
or less are forecast for portions of southwestern Colorado, northwest
and extreme southern New Mexico, west Texas, and southeast Texas into
southern Louisiana.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of far west Texas, southern New Mexico, and
southwestern Colorado.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast
for most of Colorado, most of New Mexico, far west Texas, and areas
along and near the upper Texas and Louisiana Gulf coast.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of far west Texas into southern New Mexico.  MAP
amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for most of Colorado and New
Mexico, and far west Texas.

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest
Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the
Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.  Statewide, New Mexico
is out of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas remains in
exceptional drought.  Severe drought conditions are impacting 43%
of New Mexico and 35% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in New Mexico
have eased the drought conditions over the past couple weeks.  In
Texas, the drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter.
No widespread significant rainfall is forecast this week through the
weekend, therefore no significant runoff is expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
River conditions across the WGRFC remain near or below seasonal flows.
Localized thunderstorm complexes over the Hill Country in the last few
days will add much needed water to the system, but no significant
flooding is expected.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$






000
AGUS74 KFWR 191642
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1142 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

                  VALID AUGUST 19 THROUGH AUGUST 24

...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER TEXAS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT THE MONSOON CONTINUES OVER NEW MEXICO...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A persistent upper air low pressure system continues to be
located near the San Angelo area this morning.  This disturbance has
brought periods of showers and thunderstorms to southwest Texas and
the Hill Country the past 24 hours.  The heaviest rainfall of 4.00
inches was noted near Tarpley and Utopia. This upper low is
forecast to drift slowly northeast. So over the next several hours,
this feature is expected to continue moving over unstable air and
combine with daytime heating. As a result, additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop over portions of north central
and central Texas. Rainfall amounts within this activity are expected
to average 0.50 inch or less. Some locally higher amounts are possible
within some areas. No significant mainstem river flooding is
expected.

By Wednesday the upper low is forecast to move over Oklahoma and will
weaken.  Therefore, the rainfall over Texas will diminish. An upper
level ridge of high pressure is expected to slowly shift westward and
strengthen over the northern Gulf of Mexico as a strong upper level
system develops over southern California. The high will move over
the lower Mississippi River valley through the week which will keep
conditions very warm and dry for most of Texas. Elsewhere, monsoonal
rainfall activity is forecast to continue over portions of New Mexico,
especially by the end of the week as the upper low from California
moves eastward. And the sea breeze will persist over the Gulf coast
and southeast Texas during the afternoon hours each day for the next 5
days.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch are forecast for portions of north central
Texas, southwest Texas, and the Texas Hill Country.  MAP amounts of
0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of southern Colorado,
roughly the western half of New Mexico, as well as from north central
into southwest Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of southwest Texas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or
less are forecast for portions of southern Colorado, southern New
Mexico, southwest Texas, as well as along the middle and upper Texas
Gulf coast into southern Louisiana.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of southwest Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or
less are forecast for portions of southwestern Colorado, northwest
and southeast New Mexico, west Texas, and southeast Texas into
southern Louisiana.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are
forecast for portions of far west Texas, southern New Mexico, and
southern Colorado.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast
for Colorado, New Mexico, far west Texas, and areas along and near
the Texas and Louisiana Gulf coast.

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest
Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the
Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.  Statewide, New Mexico
is out of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas remains in
exceptional drought.  Severe drought conditions are impacting 43%
of New Mexico and 35% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in New Mexico
have eased the drought conditions over the past couple weeks.  In
Texas, the drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter.
No widespread significant rainfall is forecast this week through the
weekend, therefore no significant runoff is expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
River conditions across the WGRFC remain near or below seasonal flows.
Localized thunderstorm complexes in the Hill Country will add much
needed water to the system, but no significant flooding is expected.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 181545
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1044 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

                  VALID AUGUST 18 THROUGH AUGUST 23

...ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper air
disturbance over the San Angelo area, is currently drifting
northeast. Over the next several hours, this feature is expected
to continue moving over unstable air and combine with daytime
heating. As a result, additional showers and thunderstorms, are
expected to develop over portions of north central and northeast
Texas, during the afternoon and evening hours. Rainfall amounts
within this activity, are averaging 0.50 inch or less, and this
trend is expected to continue. Some higher amounts are possible
within some isolated areas. No significant flooding is expected.

After today, the upper high is expected to slowly shift
eastward and strengthen, as a strong upper level system develops
over the Pacific US. This will keep conditions very warm and dry
through the end of the week. Elsewhere, monsoonal activity is
forecast to continue over portions of New Mexico. And the
sea breeze will persist over the southeast Texas coast during the
afternoon hours.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.50 inch or less are forecast for portions of north
central and northeast Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
inch are forecast for portions of New Mexico and Colorado.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts
are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or
less are forecast for portions of southern Colorado, and south
east New Mexico.

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest
Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the
Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.  Statewide, New Mexico
is out of exceptional drought while less than 3% of Texas remains in
exceptional drought.  Severe drought conditions are impacting 43%
of New Mexico and 35% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in New Mexico
have eased drought conditions over the past couple weeks.  In
Texas, the drought has only diminished over roughly the southeast
quarter. No significant rainfall is expected through the weekend.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
River conditions across the WGRFC remain near or below seasonal
flows. While a storm system moves through Texas today, no
significant flooding is expected.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


$$







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