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000
AGUS74 KFWR 231603
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1103 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

                   VALID APRIL 23 THROUGH APRIL 28

...CHANCE OF RAIN THIS EVENING WEST OF METROPLEX AND RAINFALL
AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The next shortwave trough is near Nevada as shown by satellite water
vapor imagery.  As this feature drags a trough of low pressure over
the area, there will be an increased chance of showers and
thunderstorms tonight mainly confined to portions of north Texas
west of the metroplex.  This storm pattern will look similar to the
pattern over the last few days with a cold front following the
storms.  However, the chance for lingering rains remains low into
Thursday morning as the front stalls south of the metroplex. Any
activity is expected to be isolated. Storms are also possible across
the Texas coast today with the light offshore winds.

There is the chance of widespread significant rainfall for the WGRFC
area starting later this weekend.  The more reliable meteorological
models have consistently advertised well-organized stronger Pacific
storm moving across the California Coast and cross the Desert
Southwest this weekend.  These models are showing a favorable
environment for the development of heavy rainfall over the eastern
two thirds of the WGRFC area starting Sunday, and staying in the
forecast through Monday.

We will continue to monitor this possible event and will
update accordingly.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 or less are
forecast for northeast Texas.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.50 inches
are forecast for the eastern third of Texas with amounts increasing
to the northeast through the upper Sabine basin.

The drought conditions continue to deteriorate over most of the
region.  Almost all of New Mexico and 82% of Texas remain in some
level of drought category. In addition, 29% of Texas and 25% of New
Mexico are in extreme drought.  Statewide, in Texas, reservoirs are,
on average, less than 65% full.  This is below average for this time
of year, with average being about 80% full.  There is considerable
variability across the state, with many of the reservoirs in the
western half of the state below 50% full.  Due to the dry soil
moisture conditions, the rainfall forecast over the next 5 days will
not be heavy enough to produce significant runoff.  Mainstem river
flooding is not expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Amistad releases are elevating flows along the mainstem from Amistad
downstream to Falcon Lake.  No significant impacts are expected,
although the river at Columbia Bridge (CBBT2) is fluctuating above
an action level for pumps and livestock in the area.  The duration
of Amistad releases is unknown at this time.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
No significant flooding is expected from rainfall forecast in the
next 5 days. An event expected toward the end of the five day period
is being monitored at this time, but timing and location shifts each
model run make local forecast determinations difficult at this time.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 221531
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1031 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

                   VALID APRIL 22 THROUGH APRIL 27

...CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY IN EAST TEXAS WITH MORE BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Even with the passing of the frontal system overnight into this
morning low level moisture is still abundant.  Precipitable Water
(PW) values are running near to slightly above normal for this time
of year.  Considering another trough moving east across the Rockies
towards the central plains late Wednesday, there will be an
increased chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night mainly
confined to north and east Texas.  However, the chance for lingering
rains remains low into Thursday morning as zonal flow returns to the
area. Activity should remain isolated. Storms are also possible
across the Texas coast during this timeframe.

A quick moving Pacific storm will move into the Pacific Northwest
Wednesday, crossing into the Northern Plains by Thursday.  This
feature will drag a trough of low pressure over the area.  This
pattern on Thursday will look similar to the pattern over the last
few days.

There is the chance of widespread significant rainfall for the WGRFC
area starting later this weekend.  The more reliable meteorological
models have consistently advertised well-organized Pacific storm
moving across the California Coast and cross the Desert Southwest
this weekend.  These models are showing a favorable environment for
the development of heavy rainfall over the eastern 2/3 of the WGRFC
area starting Sunday, and staying in the forecast through the end of
their model runs.

If the models continue to advertise heavy rainfall in the same areas
for the same time period, the confidence for a heavy rain event will
increase.  We will continue to monitor this possible event and will
update accordingly.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 are
forecast for a narrow area from the Hill country north through the
Possum Kingdom lake area and into Oklahoma.

The drought conditions continue to deteriorate over most of the
region.  Almost all of New Mexico and 82% of Texas remain in some
level of drought category. In addition, 29% of Texas and 25% of New
Mexico are in extreme drought.  Statewide, in Texas, reservoirs are,
on average, less than 65% full.  This is below average for this time
of year, with average being about 80% full.  There is considerable
variability across the state, with many of the reservoirs in the
western half of the state below 50% full.  Due to the dry soil
moisture conditions, the rainfall forecast over the next 5 days will
not be heavy enough to produce significant runoff.  Mainstem river
flooding is not expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Amistad releases are elevating flows along the mainstem from Amistad
downstream to Falcon Lake.  No significant impacts are expected,
although the river at Columbia Bridge (CBBT2) is fluctuating above
an action level for pumps and livestock in the area.  The duration
of Amistad releases is unknown at this time.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
No significant flooding is expected from rainfall forecast in the
next 5 days. An event expected beyond the five day period is being
monitored at this time.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 211557
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1057 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

                   VALID APRIL 21 THROUGH APRIL 26

...A POSSIBLE LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION LATER THIS WEEK AS MORE
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A weak upper level storm has been absorbed into a larger scale upper
level trough of low pressure over the Mississippi Valley.  Several
leftover features should help increase the rain chances through
Tuesday.  A weak cold front/wind shift boundary over West Texas
could help initiate thunderstorms.  Daytime heating in areas where
the cloud cover has cleared could also aid in the development of
thunderstorms.  Low level moisture is abundant.  Precipitable Water
(PW) values are running near, to slightly above normal for this time
of year.  Factor in the favorable upper level environment with
previously mentioned upper level trough, and much of the eastern
half of Texas should see needed precipitation.

An upper level ridge will move over the WGRFC area by mid week.  This
should help keep a lid on widespread showers and thunderstorms.
However, isolated activity is possible across the Texas coast.  This
pattern will be short lived.  A quick moving Pacific storm will move
into the Pacific Northwest Wednesday, crossing the Northern Plains
by Thursday.  This feature will drag a trough of low pressure over
the area.  This pattern on Thursday will look similar to the pattern
over the last few days.  Expected scattered showers and
thunderstorms to form Thursday.  Widespread heavy, significant
rainfall is not expected.

Even though it is beyond the scope of this forecast, there is the
chance of widespread significant rainfall for the WGRFC area
starting later this weekend.  The more reliable meteorological
models have consistently advertised a strong, well-organized Pacific
storm moving across the California Coast and cross the Desert
Southwest this weekend.  These models have consistently showed a
favorable environment for the development of heavy rainfall over the
eastern 2/3 of the WGRFC area starting Sunday, and staying in the
forecast through the end of their model runs.  There are way too
many variables in play to pinpoint where, or if, significant
rainfall is likely to occur.  However, if the models continue to
advertise heavy rain in the same areas for the same time period,
much like the last few days of model runs, the confidence for a
heavy rain event will increase.  We will continue to monitor this
possible event and will update accordingly.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast from Northeast Texas south
and west into Central Texas.  Lighter MAP amounts are forecast for
Central New Mexico, Southern Colorado, and for most of the eastern
half of Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less
are forecast for Southeast Texas and for Southern Colorado.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less
are foreast for the central third of Texas and for Southern
Colorado.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less
are forecast for most of Texas and for Southern Colorado.

The drought conditions have been deteriorating over the last several
weeks over most of the region.  Almost all of New Mexico and 82% of
Texas remain in some level of drought category. In addition, 29% of
Texas and 25% of New Mexico are in extreme drought.  Statewide, in
Texas, reservoirs are, on average, less than 65% full.  This is
below average for this time of year, with average being about 80%
full.  There is considerable variability across the state, with many
of the reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full.
Due to the dry soil moisture conditions, the rainfall which is
forecast the next 5 days will not be heavy enough to produce
significant runoff.  Mainstem river flooding is not expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Amistad releases are elevating flows along the mainstem from Amistad
downstream to Falcon Lake.  No significant impacts are expected,
although the river at Columbia Bridge (CBBT2) is fluctuating above
an action level for pumps and livestock in the area.  The duration
of Amistad releases is unknown at this time.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
No significant flooding is expected from rainfall forecast in the
next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

WALLER


$$







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