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000
AGUS74 KFWR 211611
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1110 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

               VALID SEPTEMBER 21 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 26

...RAINFALL WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
WGRFC AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  MILDER AND DRIER WEATHER SHOULD
RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The large scale pattern is being driven by an upper level ridge over
Texas with a pair of potent upper level storm systems, one over the
Great Lakes and the other over Nevada.  The latter "Nevada" storm
should slowly lift northeast toward the Northern Rockies, with the
"Great Lakes" storm moving steadily east.  This combination should
push a cold front through Texas.  However, this front will not have
enough push to clear the WGRFC area, with a mostly easterly flow
expected Monday.  If anything, this will enhance the large scale lift
over New Mexico and West Texas, resulting in more rainfall.

Precipitable Water (PW) values are running 150% to 200% of normal,
courtesy of remnant Pacific moisture from the last few E. Pacific
tropical systems and low level moisture riding up the Rio Grande from
the Gulf of Mexico.  With no large scale pattern changes in the short
term, more rainfall is expected for the western portions of the WGRFC
area through Monday.

The upper level ridge over the area build west as the week
progresses.  This should help inhibit some of the areal coverage of
the area of precipitation.  However, rain chances will remain in the
forecast for the WGRFC through mid week, with the exception of
Northeast and East Texas.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected for Southeast New Mexico.  MAP
amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are forecast for the remainder of New
Mexico and for Northern Mexico across from Deep South Texas.  Lighter
MAP amounts are expected for the remainder of the western half of
Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch are
forecast for Southeast New Mexico.  MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for the remainder of New Mexico and for West Texas.
Lighter MAP amounts are expected for South and Southeast Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less
are forecast for the western half of the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less
are forecast for West Texas and for Deep South Texas.

Drought persists but is slowly improving over Texas and New Mexico.
Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought, while less
than 2% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought
conditions are impacting less than 40% of New Mexico and 35% of
Texas.  Runoff is expected to continue across far west Texas, as well
as over southeastern New Mexico for the few days.  Runoff leading to
significant mainstem river flooding may occur on the Pecos River in
addition to flash flooding in southeast New Mexico and west Texas.  No
significant runoff is expected over the eastern portions of Texas for
the forecast period.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The largest concern in the Rio Grande basin continues to be potential
flows from the Rio Conchos out of northern Mexico into the Rio Grande
at Presidio.  Current forecasts are for minor flood levels at Presido
downstream of the International Bridge (PRST2) and at the weir
(PRDT2).  Flows in the Rio Conchos have been stable with little
change.  No significant rainfall is forecast in the Conchos basin for
the next five days.  WGRFC will continue to monitor  the Rio Grande
river conditions and adjust forecasts accordingly.

...Pecos Basin...
...Bankfull and above...
The large flows in the tributaries above Brantley Reservoir continue to
recede.  Brantley reservoir has adequate storage available such that it
will not be making releases to contribute to existing downstream
flooding.  Downstream, the current level in Lake Avalon is near
conservation pool and continues to rise however no significant spillway
flows are expected. Red Bluff reservoir continues to rise.  There is
the possibility that discharges from Red Bluff reservoir could
contribute to the existing overbank flow conditions between Red Bluff
reservoir and Pecos. Stage/flow data for that section of the Pecos
River is limited.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall has continued across many parts of WGRFC with soil states
nearing saturation for most areas with exception of the northeast Texas
basins.  These wet areas of the WGRFC will likely again see
precipitation in some form of intensity today, but the current forecast
displays no rises beyond minor flooding at this time.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

WALLER


$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 201624
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1123 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

               VALID SEPTEMBER 20 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 25

...WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Weak upper air disturbances, combined with an old frontal boundary,
have kept scattered to numerous showers ongoing across most of the
WGRFC area the past few days. In general, upper level disturbances
combined with abundant atmospheric moisture favor continued
thunderstorms and showers through the weekend, with a gradual
decrease in the precipitation early next week.

The other focus for rainfall has been and continues to be with the
remnants of Hurricane Odile slowly moving along the Texas/New Mexico
border.  Over the next several days, the remnants of Odile are
expected to move slowly northeast into the Texas panhandle then drop
southward toward the Permian Basin by Sunday morning. With all the
moisture in place over the area, the widespread rain will
continue over southeastern New Mexico into west Texas and the Texas
panhandle through today. Flash flooding will continue to remain the
greatest concern, along with developing minor and possible moderate
flooding on the Pecos River during the next two days. Rainfall
is also expected into early next week, especially over west central
and southwest Texas, depending upon the future track of Odile`s
remnants. Since these remnants should be weakening over west Texas
Sunday, mainly light to moderate rain is expected over this part of
Texas and southeast New Mexico.  We will continue to monitor the
progress of this storm.

By Monday a weak cold front is forecast to move into northern and
eastern Texas. At this point significant rainfall is not expected
with the frontal boundary as the remnants of Odile eventually weaken
further over west Texas.  Behind the front, drier air will be ushered
in, so rainfall will decrease further across Texas by Wednesday
morning.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1.00 inch are forecast to fall over southeastern
New Mexico and far west Texas with the heaviest amounts possible
north of I-20 from Odessa to Lubbock and eastward toward Stamford,
Texas.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.00 inch are
forecast for most of New Mexico with the heaviest amounts over the
Pecos River basin to points south of Red Bluff Dam along the I-20
corridor in far west Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for an area in the upper Rio Grande valley from
Alamogordo north to Albuquerque.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Drought persists but is slowly improving over Texas and New Mexico.
Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought, while less
than 2% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought
conditions are impacting less than 40% of New Mexico and 35% of
Texas.  No doubt the rainfall forecast the next 5 days will
further alleviate some of the ongoing drought. Runoff is expected
across far west Texas, as well as over southeastern New Mexico for
the few days.  Runoff leading to significant mainstem river flooding
may occur on the Pecos River in addition to flash flooding in
southeast New Mexico and west Texas.  No significant runoff is
expected over north central and northeast Texas for the forecast
period.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The largest concern in the Rio Grande basin continues to be potential
flows from the Rio Conchos out of northern Mexico into the Rio Grande
at Presidio.  Current forecasts are for minor flood levels at Presido
downstream of the International Bridge (PRST2) at the weir (PRDT2).
Flows in the Rio Conchos have been stable with little change since
Friday afternoon.  No significant rainfall is forecast in the Rio
Conchos basin for the next few days.  WGRFC will continue to monitor
the Rio Grande river conditions and adjust forecasts accordingly.

...San Jacinto Basin...
Heavy rains over portions of the San Jacinto brought tributaries to
slightly above bankfull levels yesterday but all are now subsiding
and have fallen below action criteria levels at this time.

...Pecos Basin...
...Bankfull and above...
The large flows in the tributaries above Brantley Reservoir continue
to recede.  Brantley reservoir has adequate storage available such
that it will not be making releases to contribute to existing
downstream flooding.  Downstream, the current level in Lake Avalon is
near conservation pool and continues to rise however no significant
spillway flows are expected. Downstream of Avalon to Red Bluff
reservoir, the Pecos River has fallen to below NWS action stage
criteria but not necessarily below bankfull.  Red Bluff reservoir
continues to rise. The current pool height was 2825.08 as of 15:15Z
9/20/2014 (assumed NGVD29).  The Red Bluff spillway elevation is
2826.7 NGVD29.  With no significant additional rainfall considered,
WGRFC does not expect Red Bluff reservoir to make a significant
downstream flow contribution to the existing overbank flow conditions
between Red Bluff reservoir and Pecos, Texas.  Stage/flow data for
that section of the Pecos River is limited.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall has continued across many parts of WGRFC with soil states
nearing saturation for most areas with exception of the northeast
Texas basins.  These wet areas of the WGRFC will likely again see
precipitation in some form of intensity today, but the current
forecast displays no rises beyond minor flooding at this time.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 191701
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1201 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

               VALID SEPTEMBER 19 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 24

...WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Weak upper air disturbances, combined with an old frontal boundary,
have kept scattered to numerous showers ongoing across most of the
WGRFC area the past four days. In general, the upper level pattern is
conducive for precipitation to continue through the weekend, with a
gradual decrease in the precipitation early next week. In southeast
Texas, the best chances for rain will be during the next 24
hours, with the best chances for rain shifting to the lower Texas Gulf
coast over the weekend.  Some flooding is possible at this time, but
most locations will only see minor flood stages.  Very heavy rainfall
fell early Friday morning over southeast Texas where 4 to 7 inches of
rain fell in the general area around Houston.  Locally heavy rainfall
also fell over parts of central Texas where Lometa and Tow TX received
over 5.00 inches the past 24 hours.

The other focus for rainfall has been and continues to be with the
remnants of Hurricane Odile which are along the Texas/New Mexico
border this morning.  Locally heavy rain of over 3 inches fell over
west Texas near Fluvanna, Gail, and Kermit TX the past 24 hours ahead
of this storm, and nearly 3 inches of rain fell over southeast New
Mexico.  Over the next several days, the remnants of Odile are
expected to move slowly across the Texas panhandle today, then will
begin to drop southward toward the Permian Basin by Sunday morning.
With all the moisture in place over the area, the widespread rain will
continue over eastern New Mexico into west Texas and the Texas
panhandle through Saturday. Flash flooding will continue to remain the
greatest concern, along with developing minor and possible moderate
flooding on the Pecos River during the next two days exists. Rainfall
is also expected into early next week, especially over west central
and southwest Texas, depending upon the future track of Odile`s
remnants. Since these remnants should be weakening over west Texas
Sunday, mainly light to moderate rain is expected over this part of
Texas and southeast New Mexico.  We will continue to monitor the
progress of this storm.

By Monday a weak cold front is forecast to move into northern and
eastern Texas. At this point significant rainfall is not expected with
the frontal boundary as the remnants of Odile eventually weaken
further over west Texas.  Behind the front, drier air will be ushered
in, so rainfall will decrease further across Texas by Wednesday
morning.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for eastern New Mexico into
western and southern Texas.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of
2.00 inches, are forecast over extreme southeast New Mexico into
west Texas around the Permian Basin.  Lighter amounts of MAP are
forecast over most of Texas, most of New Mexico, southern Colorado,
and southern Louisiana.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are
forecast for southeastern New Mexico into western, central and deep
south Texas.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 2.00 inches, are
forecast just east of Lubbock around Jayton and Aspermont TX.  Lighter
amounts of MAP are forecast over much of the remaining sections of the
WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are
forecast for a good part of New Mexico, the southwest third of Texas,
deep south Texas, and most of Colorado.  The heaviest rain, with MAP
amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over portions of southeast New
Mexico, the Permian Basin northwest of Midland, and over Mexico
south of Del Rio. Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over the
remaining sections of the WGRFC area except for north central and
northeast Texas.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more
are forecast for southern New Mexico, deep south Texas, and the
northern Texas panhandle.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of
0.50 inch, are forecast over southeast New Mexico.  Lighter amounts of
MAP are forecast over the remaining sections of the WGRFC area except
for north central and northeast Texas.

Drought persists but is slowly improving over Texas and New Mexico.
Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought, while less
than 2% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought
conditions are impacting less than 40% of New Mexico and 35% of
Texas.  No doubt the rainfall forecast the next 5 days will
further alleviate some of the ongoing drought. Runoff is expected
across southeast and southwest Texas, as well as over southeastern
New Mexico for the next 5 days.  Runoff leading to significant
mainstem river flooding may occur on the Pecos River to go along with
flash flooding in southeast New Mexico and west Texas.  The
runoff in southeast Texas may lead to additional river flooding, but
it should remain minor.  No significant runoff is expected over north
central and northeast Texas.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Pecos Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Heavy rains have continued to affect an area from Fourmile Draw near
Lakewood down to Red Bluff Dam. Both Brantley Lake near Carlsbad and
Red Bluff Dam will receive beneficial runoff from the remnants of
moisture transported into the region by Hurricane Odile.  Heavy rains
have continued overnight and early this morning with flashy runoff
episodes as well as stream flooding.

Rainfall over Fourmile Draw near Lakewood (LKWT2) has generated
enough
runoff to swell into minor flood levels.  This runoff will flow into
Brantley Lake, which has plenty of storage in the flood pool. Other
areas downstream have seen significant flashy
rises over Rocky Arroyo and Dark Canyon Draw as well.  Lake Avalon is
expected to fill and begin spilling today, which will increase flows
along the Pecos mainstem.

The Black River watershed above Malaga (MLAN5) has reported enough
rainfall over the past 24 hours to cause flows into minor flood
criteria.  This will also contribute to higher flows downstream on the
mainstem of the Pecos River through the reach near Red Bluff (RBFN5)
reaching minor flood levels.  Red Bluff Dam is reporting a rise of more
than 5 feet over the past week and is also expected to spill today.

No impacts are expected further downstream as these high flows continue
through sparsely populated west Texas and significantly attenuate
enroute to Girvin.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Another round of widespread 1-1.5 inches of rain from Leasburg through
El Paso has finally generated some active, non-flood flows along the
Rio Grande. Further downstream at the confluence with the Rio Conchos,
due to continued and increasing releases from Luis Leon Reservoir,
Presidio (PRST2) and other downstream locations will see higher,
non-flood flows with minor flooding is possible.  Expected  duration
and release changes are not known at this time.  However, releases
increased yesterday and are expected to continue increasing based on
current releases from Madero Reservoir further upstream in the Rio
Conchos basin in Mexico.  Additionally, the higher flows routed along
the mainstem from El Paso will arrive early next week to continue river
rises along the Big Bend locations, but at this time, not expected to
reach minor flood levels.

...San Jacinto Basin...
Rainfall continues today in the San Jacinto Basin however no additional
significant rainfall is forecast in the basin for next 5 days.  Cypress
Creek near Hockley (KHOT2) is forecast to rise above bankfull Saturday.
 The west fork of the San Jacinto River at Humble is forecast to remain
around bankfull for the next several days.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall has continued across many parts of WGRFC with soil states
nearing saturation for most areas with exception of the northeast Texas
basins.  These wet areas of the WGRFC will likely again see
precipitation in some form of intensity today, but the current forecast
displays no rises beyond minor flooding at this time.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$






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