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000
AGUS74 KFWR 251617
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1017 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

                VALID NOVEMBER 25 THROUGH NOVEMBER 30

      ...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The large scale pattern will transition from cool and dry to warmer
and mostly dry by the weekend.  A large trough of low pressure over
the Central Plains will push east.  The northwesterly flow aloft will
flatten, becoming more zonal.  Low level southerly winds will return,
bringing a little more humidity along with a milder airmass.
Temperatures should start running above normal by the end of the week.

The next best chance for significant precipitation is maybe Tuesday,
but maybe Friday of next week, beyond the scope of this forecast.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (44%) and 10% has extreme to
exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 2% has extreme to
exceptional drought. No doubt the rainfall which fell this past
weekend was heavy enough to put a small dent in the drought, but
likely did not eliminate these conditions.  With minimal rainfall
forecast the next 5 days, no new or additional runoff will occur.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Recent rains did generate minor runoff events in the lower Brazos.
The Brazos River at SH121 near Bryan (BBZT2) has slowly risen from
the runoff generated by locally heavy rains and is cresting now
slightly above action stage.  This reach of the river will slowly
fall below bankfull today and recede back to seasonal flows later
in the week.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
With the exceptions noted in the lower Brazos basin, all remaining
rivers will remain at seasonal low flows through the forecast period.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

WALLER


$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 241718
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1118 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

                VALID NOVEMBER 24 THROUGH NOVEMBER 29

...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THIS WEEK ACROSS THE WGRFC AREA...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Drier weather has arrived in the wake of the low pressure system
which moved across Texas over the weekend. The exception to that was
over northern New Mexico, southern Colorado and into the Texas
panhandle.  A secondary upper air disturbance moved across Colorado
toward Kansas and is now moving into Missouri this morning, and
this disturbance produced the light precipitation.  As this
disturbance moves further eastward, no additional precipitation is
expected over the WGRFC area until this evening.

By tonight and Tuesday yet another strong upper air disturbance and a
cold front are forecast to move from western Colorado through Texas.
Atmospheric moisture will be limited, thus little or no shower
activity is expected with their passage.  However, light
precipitation may fall over northern New Mexico and southern
Colorado.  This disturbance will move out of the WGRFC area by
Tuesday evening.

On Wednesday a large ridge of high pressure is forecast to build
over the west coast.  This ridge will move slowly eastward the
rest of the week, thus dry weather is expected from Tuesday night
through Thanksgiving Day and into Saturday morning.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for extreme northern New
Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are
forecast for extreme northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (44%) and 10% has extreme to
exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 2% has extreme to
exceptional drought. No doubt the rainfall which fell this past
weekend was heavy enough to put a small dent in the drought, but
likely did not eliminate these conditions.  With minimal rainfall
forecast the next 5 days, no new or additional runoff will occur.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Colorado Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Recent heavy rains in the Austin area yesterday afternoon caused
minor street and small stream flooding.  Onion Creek at US 183
(ATIT2) did  respond with flows in the minor flood category but
has since fallen below bankfull.  The Colorado River near
Smithville (SMIT2) has risen above action stage and nearing crest.
It should fall below action stage later tonight.

...San Antonio Basin...
Recent heavy rains have generated some minor rises in the lower
portions of the San Antonio.  Cibolo Creek near Falls City (FCTT2)
is currently expected to rise and crest slightly below action stage.

...Brazos Basin...
Recent rains did generate minor runoff events in the lower Brazos..
Davidson Creek near Lyons (LYNT2) crested slightly above action stage
yesterday and is currently within banks and falling rapidly.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
With the exceptions noted in specific basin discussions, remaining
rivers will remain below flood criteria through the forecast period.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$






000
AGUS74 KFWR 231719
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1119 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

                VALID NOVEMBER 23 THROUGH NOVEMBER 28

...THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS OVER, AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST THIS WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A deep low pressure system moved from northern Mexico across Texas the
past 24 hours.  This storm produced widespread beneficial
precipitation over most of Texas and Louisiana.  The low pressure
system is passing out of east Texas into northern Louisiana, and as a
result the rainfall in Texas has ended.  Widespread point rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts in excess of 5 inches,
fell in many parts of Texas and western Louisiana. This heaviest rain
fell over central Texas near Austin and Dripping Springs.

With this strong Pacific storm system exiting the area, drier weather
has arrived in its wake in most areas. The only exception is over
northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.  A secondary upper air
disturbance is moving across Colorado toward Kansas this morning, and
this disturbance has produced light precipitation over the southern
Rockies.  As this disturbance moves eastward, any additional
precipitation it generates should remain north of the WGRFC area
through tonight.

On Monday and Tuesday yet another strong upper air disturbance and a
cold front are forecast to move through Texas. Atmospheric moisture
will be limited, thus little or no shower activity is expected with
their passage.  This disturbance will move out of the WGRFC area by
Tuesday evening.

On Wednesday a large ridge of high pressure is forecast to build
over the west coast.  This ridge will move slowly eastward the
rest of the week, thus dry weather is expected from Tuesday night into
Thanksgiving Day and Friday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, no significant Mean Areal Precipitation
(MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less
than 0.25 of an inch are forecast for extreme northeast New Mexico
into southeast Colorado and the northern Texas panhandle, southwestern
Colorado and extreme northeast Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are
forecast for extreme northern New Mexico and southern Colorado.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (44%) and 10% has extreme to
exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 2% has extreme to
exceptional drought. No doubt the rainfall which fell the past 48
hours was heavy enough to put a small dent in the drought, but likely
did not eliminate these conditions.  With minimal rainfall forecast
the next 5 days, no new or additional runoff will occur.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Localized heavy rains yesterday afternoon did generate minor runoff
events in the lower Brazos on Davidson Creek near Lyons (LYNT2).
The creek is still rising and is forecast to crest slightly above
bankfull this afternoon. Other tributaries have also experienced
minor rises from the rains in the area.

...Colorado Basin...
Heavy rain in the Austin area yesterday afternoon have caused minor
street and small stream flooding.  Onion Creek at US 183 (ATIT2) did
respond with flows in the minor flood category but has since fallen
below bankfull.

...Guadalupe Basin...
The river flow in the lower portions of the Guadalupe are expected to
increase considerably over the next few days as runoff from the storm
yesterday reaches the mainstem. No flooding is anticipated at this
time but an action stage forecast may be issued later for Victoria
(VICT2) as rainfall is further assessed for the area.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
With exceptions noted in specific basin discussions, remaining rivers
will remain below flood criteria through the forecast period.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$






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