000
AGUS74 KFWR 181600
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1100 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
VALID MAY 18 THROUGH MAY 23
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Only subtle changes are expected in the WGRFC weather pattern over
the next several days. An upper level storm system will develop on
the northern end of a large scale upper level trough of low pressure
over the Rockies. This storm system will deepen and intensify as it
slides east into the Northern Plains over the next few days. With
most of the dynamics and development expected well north of the
WGRFC area, the overall pattern of an upper level trough over New
Mexico and a weak upper level ridge over Texas will change little
through Wednesday.
Disturbances in the resulting southwesterly flow, combined with the
added instability and added lift from daytime heating, could trigger
scattered showers and thunderstorm over the central portions of
Texas each afternoon and evening.
This pattern should continue through Tuesday as the previously
mentioned upper level storm over the Northern Plains will help push
a weak cold front/boundary through North Texas. Shower and
thunderstorm activity will become more organized along this
boundary, with locally heavy rainfall possible over Northeast Texas.
At this time, it is doubtful if the weak front will be strong enough
to clear the coast. Showers and thunderstorms could persist for
South and Southeast Texas well into the next week.
We will continue to monitor and will update accordingly.
...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for Central and West
Central Texas, along with Southern Colorado.
For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are
forecast for Southern Colorado and for North Central and Central
Texas.
For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are
forecast for Southern Colorado and for North Central Texas.
For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches are
forecast for Northeast Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast north and east of a line from Interstate 35 at the
Texas/Oklahoma border to the Heartland of Texas to Austin to
Houston. Lighter MAP amounts are expected across Southern Colorado
and for the remainder of Texas east of a Childress to Del Rio line.
Even with the last couple of weeks of rains throughout Texas, the
ongoing drought remains entrenched across the entire WGRFC
area. About 68 percent of Texas remains in severe drought, or
worse. In New Mexico, drought conditions are even more widespread,
with nearly 97 percent of the state in severe to exceptional
drought. Localized runoff is possible in the stronger
thunderstorms. Widespread significant runoff is not expected.
Widespread mainstem river flooding is not expected.
...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC forecast points are currently below criteria. No
significant flooding is expected over the next 5 days.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov
National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage
The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml
WALLER
$$
000
AGUS74 KFWR 171552
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1052 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
VALID MAY 17 THROUGH MAY 22
...PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A broad, large scale upper level trough of low pressure over the
Rockies and a weak upper level ridge over Texas will keep the WGRFC
area in a southwesterly flow through the weekend. Disturbances in
this southwesterly flow, combined with the added instability and
added lift from daytime heating, could trigger scattered showers and
thunderstorm over the central portions of Texas. The stronger
thunderstorms could linger into the morning hours Saturday.
By Saturday, the previously mentioned trough is expected to get a
little stronger/deeper, and slide east. Again, isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible Saturday evening. By Sunday, the trough
is expected to move into Central Plains. Precipitation is possible
over Southern Colorado. However, New Mexico should unfortunately
remain dry. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also possible
across Texas.
By early next week, the upper level trough is expected to become more
organized over the Central Plains. This will slide the weak upper
level ridge toward the Mississippi River. Showers and thunderstorms
will become more widespread Monday and again on Tuesday. Any
precipitation is welcome and needed. We will continue to monitor
and will update accordingly.
...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.35 to 0.50 inch are forecast for Central Texas. Lighter
MAP amounts are expected for the remainder of West Central Texas
north to the Red River.
For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less
are forecast for North Central and Central Texas.
For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less are
forecast for Southern Colorado.
For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or less
are forecast for Southern Colorado. MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch
are forecast for extreme Northeast Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 inch
or less are forecast for the remainder of Texas east of a Quanah to
Langtry line.
Even with the last couple of weeks of rains throughout Texas, the
ongoing drought remains entrenched across the entire WGRFC
area. About 68 percent of Texas remains in severe drought, or
worse. In New Mexico, drought conditions are even more widespread,
with nearly 97 percent of the state in severe to exceptional
drought. Localized runoff is possible in the stronger
thunderstorms. Widespread significant runoff is not expected.
Widespread mainstem river flooding is not expected.
...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC forecast points are currently below criteria. No
significant flooding is expected over the next 5 days.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov
National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage
The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml
WALLER
$$
000
AGUS74 KFWR 161550
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1050 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
VALID MAY 16 THROUGH MAY 21
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
TODAY WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...
...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridge of high pressure continues to dominate most of
the Central U.S. A weak upper level low brought some heavy showers
and thunderstorms across north Texas last night. This rain activity
was heaviest between San Angelo and Waco and north of the DFW
metroplex. Since soils are still very dry due to the ongoing drought
conditions, very little runoff was generated from these recent
rains.
Another chance of precipitation is possible through the weekend, as
a Pacific cold front moves into portions of North Texas. Amounts do
not look significant, however the WGRFC will continue to monitor and
update as needed.
...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0l.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the extreme
northeast portion of north Texas as the overnight storm exits the
area.
For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.
For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.
For Sunday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.
Even with the last couple of weeks of rains throughout Texas, the
ongoing drought remains entrenched across the entire WGRFC
area. About 70 percent of Texas remains in severe drought, or
worse. In New Mexico, drought conditions are even more widespread,
with more than 98 percent of the state in severe to exceptional
drought. The area of exceptional drought has increased about 5%
over the past week from 39% to 44%.
...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
The Sabine River near Deweyville (DWYT2) has dropped below bankfull
overnight and continues to fall.
...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC forecast points are currently below criteria. No
significant flooding is expected over the next 5 days.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov
National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage
The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/drought_assessment.shtml
CAZIER
$$
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