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000
AGUS74 KFWR 011603
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1102 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

                   VALID AUGUST 1 THROUGH AUGUST 6

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE AND
UPPER PECOS RIVER BASINS THIS WEEKEND...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Rainfall in southeastern Texas was locally intense overnight.
Rainfall totals primarily fell within two hours. The highest
observed rainfall amount in our database was 6.6 inches near Greens
Bayou in the Houston metropolitan area. Other gage amounts of 2 to 5
inches were widespread in the Houston metropolitan area. Amounts as
high as 4 inches were also observed further north from Lufkin to
Longview. Rainfall amounts over the next five days should be much
lighter throughout most of Texas, and confined to the southeast.

The weather situation in New Mexico and far western Texas is expected
to remain active for the next few days with showers and thunderstorms
with locally heavy rainfall. Isolated amounts above 2 inches were
observed in several areas of New Mexico over the past 24 hours,
especially just north of El Paso and further north near Santa Fe.
Another very active day for showers and thunderstorms is expected
today as monsoon moisture remains in place. Saturday is also expected
to have a good chance for showers and thunderstorms with locally
heavy rainfall throughout New Mexico. Lower amounts of rain are
forecast on Sunday through Wednesday, but monsoon moisture should
remain in place, and there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms
each day.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for portions of New
Mexico, southern Colorado, and far western Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25
to 0.5 inches are forecast for the upper Texas Gulf coast and for
southwestern Louisiana. Lesser amounts are forecast for South Texas.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inch are
forecast for portions of far western Texas and southern New Mexico.
MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for most of the rest of
New Mexico and for southern Colorado. Lesser amounts are forecast for
southeastern Texas.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are
forecast for portions of southwestern New Mexico. Lesser amounts are
forecast for southeastern Texas and for western Texas, the rest of New
Mexico and for southern Colorado.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch
are forecast for portions of southwestern New Mexico. Lesser amounts
are forecast for most of the rest of New Mexico and southern
Colorado, far western Texas, and southeastern Texas.

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest
Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the
Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.  Statewide, less than 1%
of New Mexico and about 3% of Texas are in exceptional drought.
But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and
33% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the
drought conditions over the past couple weeks, while over Texas the
drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. More
rain is forecast the next 5 days over New Mexico which will help to
ease the drought conditions, but over Texas rainfall amounts will be
minimal and will be concentrated mainly along and near the Gulf
coast. The exception is far western Texas, where locally heavy rains
may provide further drought relief. Local runoff issues are possible
in New Mexico and western Texas over the next five days, but
significant river flooding is not expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...San Jacinto Basin..
Locally intense rains overnight in the Houston metropolitan area have
caused elevated flows on Greens Bayou. Greens Bayou at Ley Road near
Houston (GBLT2) is expected to have a renewed rise to near flood stage
later today due to over 6 inches of rain in the upper portion of the
local basin.

...Trinity Basin...
Locally intense rains yesterday over the northeastern headwaters of
the Trinity pushed Sister Grove Creek near Blue Ridge (BVWT2) and
the East Fork Trinity at McKinney (MCKT2) to action stage. Both sites
have crested and are returning to normal seasonal flows.

...Rio Grande Basin...
With continued monsoonal activity in northern Mexico and far west
Texas, there is potential for minor flooding in the creeks feeding
into the Rio Grande mainstem. The Rio Grande near Candelaria (CDET2)
spiked early this morning with a locally heavy thunderstorm. Storm
activity is continuing in the area.

...Upper Rio Grande Basin...
Monsoonal rains continue throughout New Mexico.  Over this weekend,
northern New Mexico will remain convectively active with the heavier
periods being this evening and Saturday morning. Areas to watch for
minor flooding are around the Albuquerque/Santa Fe reaches and points
below Elephant Butte Dam through El Paso.

...Pecos Basin...
Monsoonal activity continues in many locations over New Mexico with
some locally heavy rains being reported.  Rain is expected to
continue through the weekend with the heaviest amounts anticipated
this afternoon.  The draws and creeks northwest of Carlsbad have
received heavy rainfall again overnight into this morning.  This
activity will be closely monitored for any additional heavy runoff
episodes. While some localized flooding has occurred the majority of
the area has received beneficial wetting rains.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Beneficial monsoonal rains continue over many location in New Mexico.
The continued convective activity may produce flashy runoff events
and possibly spike some forecast points to minor criteria levels
this evening through Saturday morning.  However, no significant
mainstem  flooding is anticipated at this time.  Conditions will
continue to be monitored closely.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

PHILPOTT


$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 311621
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1120 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

                   VALID JULY 31 THROUGH AUGUST 5

...HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SABINE AND
NECHES RIVER SYSTEMS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW..

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An area of showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact areas
of Northeast and East Texas the next several hours. Overnight, a
large complex of thunderstorms associated with an upper level
disturbance, developed over Oklahoma and moved across the
Red River and North Texas. This activity is responsible for the
4.00 to 5.00 inches of precipitation that fell across portions of
Oklahoma. Farther south across areas of Northeast Texas, 2.00 to
3.00 inches of precipitation fell across this area. Current rainfall
amounts are averaging 0.50 inch to 1.00 inch per hour and this trend
should continue through the afternoon hours. Higher than normal
flows are occurring across some of the basins within the upper
Sabine River system, however moderate or greater flooding is not
expected at this time.

Heavy rainfall will continue across portions of East and Southeast
Texas through early tomorrow. As a surface low and associated cold
front begin to move out of area by late tonight/early tomorrow,
rainfall will quickly end from west to east. Another 0.50 to 1.00
inch is expected across portions of this area, however no additional
significant flooding is expected.

By Friday, a ridge of high pressure is expected to build across
most of the region, this will allow milder and drier air to
temporarily move into the area. Elsewhere, portions of New Mexico
and Colorado will once again be impacted by additional heavy
rainfall. Over the weekend, a subtropical wave is forecast to move
northward from the Gulf of California into portions of New Mexico.
An additional 2.00 to 3.00 inch rains are possible through early
next week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of rainfall amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast for
portions of East Texas and New Mexico.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch are
forecast for portions of New Mexico and Colorado. Lesser amounts are
forecast for portions of the southeast Texas coast.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch are
forecast for portions of West Texas and New Mexico.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of Colorado and New Mexico.

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest
Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the
Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.  Statewide, less than 1%
of New Mexico and about 3% of Texas are in exceptional drought.
But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and
33% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the
drought conditions over the past couple weeks, while over Texas the
drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. More
rain is forecast the next 5 days over New Mexico which will help to
ease the drought conditions, but over Texas rainfall amounts will be
minimal and will be concentrated mainly along and near the Gulf
coast. Therefore, no significant runoff is expected the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Pecos Basin...
Monsoonal activity continues in many locations over New Mexico
with some locally heavy rains being reported.  Rain is expected
to continue into Saturday morning with heavier amounts anticipated
Friday afternoon.  The draws and creeks around Carlsbad have
received intense localized heavy rainfall with significant street
flooding being reported earlier this morning. This activity will
be closely monitored for any additional heavy runoff episodes.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Heavy rains over the past 12 hours around the Dallas/Fort Worth
metroplex and points northeast in the upper Neches and Sabine
basins have caused flashy rises in the streams. For the most part
the rains have been beneficial with the exception of minor street
flooding. Beneficial monsoonal rains continue over many location in
New Mexico with some locally heavy rains noted in the upper Pecos
basin over the past couple of days.  No significant mainstem
flooding is anticipated at this time but conditions will continue
to be monitored closely.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


$$







000
AGUS74 KFWR 301611
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1111 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

                   VALID JULY 30 THROUGH AUGUST 4

...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are occurring across
most of Oklahoma and portions of North Texas. This activity is
associated with a lingering frontal boundary and upper level
disturbance, which is also expected to impact the remaining areas
of Texas tonight and tomorrow. Over the next several hours,
rainfall is expected to increase in intensity across Central and
Southern Oklahoma as the frontal boundary moves over this area
later this afternoon. Current rainfall rates are averaging 0.50 to
1.00 inch per hour. However, this activity is situated just north
of the forecast area, therefore it is not forecast to significantly
impact any of the river systems. Elsewhere, conditions across New
Mexico and Colorado will remain dry through this evening.

By tonight, the focus for heavy rainfall will shift towards the
Red River and areas toward the south, as an approaching upper level
disturbance moves southeastward over the forecast area. And by
tomorrow morning, another round of showers and thunderstorms is
possible as the cold front finally pushes across the area. Abundant
moisture is questionable at this time across portions of North
Texas. However some of the forecast models are indicating the
possibility of some additional significant rainfall affecting areas
across northeast Texas. As the cold front continues to move
southward, rainfall is expected to increase in coverage across most
of East and Southeast Texas through tomorrow. Moisture availability
as well as an increase in southerly flow will allow some of the
storms to produce heavy rainfall at times. We will continue to
monitor this activity over the next few days, however at this time
we are not expecting any significant flooding across any river
systems.

As the cold front finally makes it to the coast by Friday, drier and
milder air will begin to dominate most of the WGRFC area. Conditions
across Colorado and New Mexico will once again see the influences of
the Monsoon through next week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 1.00 to 3.00 inches are forecast for portions of Central
Oklahoma. Lesser amount of an inch or less are forecast for areas
along the Red River and portions of North Texas.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch are
forecast for portions of the Northeast and East Texas.
Lesser amounts are forecast for areas across Colorado and
New Mexico.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch are
forecast for portions of Colorado and New Mexico. Lesser amounts are
forecast for portions of Southeast Texas.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of Southeast and Southwest Texas.

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest
Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the
Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.  Statewide, less than 1%
of New Mexico and about 3% of Texas are in exceptional drought.
But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and
33% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the
drought conditions over the past couple weeks, while over Texas the
drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. More
rain is forecast the next 5 days over New Mexico which will help to
ease the drought conditions, but over Texas rainfall amounts will be
minimal and will be concentrated mainly along and near the Gulf
coast. Therefore, no significant runoff is expected the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Pecos Basin...
Monsoonal activity continues in eastern New Mexico with widespread
rains.  Locally heavy rains near Puerto de Luna caused enough
runoff to cause the Pecos at this location to crest slightly above
minor flood stage yesterday evening. The river has subsided and is
returning to seasonal flows. The rain is expected to continue
through Thursday into Saturday morning with heavier amounts
anticipated for Friday afternoon into Saturday.  This activity will
be closely monitored for any  additional heavy runoff episodes.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other WGRFC river forecast locations are flowing near or below
normal for this  time of year.  Storm activity is expected to
increase in north and east Texas as well as in the upper Rio Grande
valley near Albuquerque over the next few days. Minor flooding is
possible in various  areas that experience more intense rains.  At
this time no major flood activity is expected with this monsoonal
rainfall.  Conditions will be closely monitored.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


$$







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