000
AGUS73 KMSR 241754
HMDMSR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1254 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
...PRECIPITATION...
RAIN FELL ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NCRFC REGION DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED IN LOWER
MICHIGAN WHERE QUARTER TO HALF INCH REPORTS WERE COMMON. LIGHTER
AMOUNTS...A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH WERE
RECEIVED IN INDIANA AND ILLINOIS.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
NCRFC REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BRING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF
RAIN TO MINNESOTA AND IOWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DAILY TOTALS
BETWEEN A QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS OVER AN
INCH COULD FALL EACH DAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA TO CENTRAL
IOWA.
...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVER THE NCRFC AREA IN THE PAST
WEEK HAS CAUSED PARTS OF IOWA AND NORTH DAKOTA TO EXPERIENCE
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING.
IN NORTH DAKOTA...THE SOURIS RIVER IS ABOVE MODERATE AT TOWNER AND
WESTHOPE AND WILL SOON BE ABOVE MODERATE AT BANTRY. THE PARK
RIVER AT GRAFTON CRESTED AT 16.2 FEET YESTERDAY AND SHOULD FALL
BELOW MODERATE TOMORROW. THE PEMBINA RIVER AT NECHE IS NOW BELOW
MAJOR AND SHOULD FALL BELOW MODERATE TOMORROW.
IN IOWA...THE CEDAR RIVER AT CEDAR FALLS CRESTED ABOVE MAJOR ON
THE 23RD AND SHOULD FALL BELOW MODERATE LATER TODAY. CONESVILLE
ON THE CEDAR SHOULD REACH MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS ON THE 27TH.
WAPELLO ON THE IOWA SHOULD APPROACH MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS AROUND
THE 28TH.
MINOR FLOODING IS ONGOING OR SOON TO BEGIN IN
WISCONSIN...ILLINOIS...MISSOURI...MINNESOTA...IOWA...MICHIGAN...
AND NORTH DAKOTA...DUE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST WEEK.
AT THIS TIME... THE FORECASTED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN RECESSIONS AND CAUSE SOME RISES BACK ABOVE
ACTION STAGE AND POSSIBLY BACK ABOVE MINOR.. PRIMARILY IN
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA.
FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC
EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST: WES ... RJW ... JCH ... DCG
IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.
$$
...RJW/WES...
000
AGUS73 KMSR 231639
HMDMSR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1138 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
...PRECIPITATION...
IN THE PAST 24 HOURS... OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FELL IN A SWATH FROM
EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN ACROSS NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND THROUGH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN NORTH OF SAGINAW. THIS BAND ALSO SAW SEVERAL
ISOLATED REPORTS OVER TWO INCHES. CHICAGOLAND AND NORTHEAST IOWA
ALSO SAW SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH REPORTS OVER AN INCH. ELSEWHERE...
LIGHTER TOTALS WERE ALSO OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA... UPPER MICHIGAN... IOWA AND ILLINOIS. TOTALS GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A TENTH TO A HALF INCH.
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS... THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST...
LEAVING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN ILLINOIS AND UP TO A QUARTER INCH
IN LOWER MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER IS
SETTING IN FROM THE WEST.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND... EXPECT A MINOR SHORTWAVE TO BREAK IN UNDER
THE HIGH PRESSURE... BRINGING ISOLATED STORMS TO IOWA AND
MISSOURI... INTO ILLINOIS. THAT UPPER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK... SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
NCRFC AREA.
...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVER THE NCRFC AREA IN THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAS CAUSE PORTIONS OF IOWA AND NORTH DAKOTA TO
EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING.
NORTH DAKOTA:
THE PEMBINA, TONGUE, AND PARK RIVERS IN THE RED RIVER OF THE
NORTH WATERSHED ARE EXPERIENCING MAJOR FLOODING. OTHER SMALLER
CREEKS/STREAMS/RIVERS IN THE AREA ARE LIKELY DANGEROUSLY HIGH.
THE PEMBINA RIVER ITSELF AT WALHALLA IS NOW IN RECESSION AFTER
CRESTING ABOVE MODERATE A FEW DAYS AGO. THE WATER HAS SINCE
ROUTED DOWNSTREAM AND CAUSED NECHE TO GO ABOVE MAJOR. NECHE HAS
NOW CRESTED AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE MAJOR FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.
THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON HAS CRESTED AT 16.2 FEET... WHICH IS
ONLY A FEW TENTHS BELOW THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 1950. LEVEL SHOULD
FALL BELOW MAJOR IN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS.
THE TONGUE RIVER AT AKRA IS EXPERIENCING RECORD FLOWS SINCE THE
CONSTRUCTION OF THE RENWICK DAM (1962). CURRENTLY THERE ARE FLOOD
FIGHTING OPERATIONS IN PLACE TO REINFORCE THE DAM IN THE AREA.
LATEST LAKE RENWICK LEVELS ARE AT 987.5 FEET AND FALLING ABOUT
FIVE HUNDRETHS AN HOUR.
ALL OF THIS WATER FROM THE RED RIVER TRIBUTARIES IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE SOME FLOODING ON THE MAINSTEM. MOST OF THE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR FOR NCRFC FORECAST POINTS. THE ONLY FORECAST
POINT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE MODERATE IS THE RED RIVER AT OSLO
MINNESOTA. OSLO IS EXPECTED TO CREST LATER THIS WEEK AROUND 32.5
FEET.
IOWA:
THE CEDAR RIVER AT CEDAR FALLS CRESTED ABOVE MAJOR EARLIER THIS MORNING
AT 93.5 FEET. THIS LOCATION HAS ALREADY FALLEN BELOW MAJOR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND SHOULD BE BELOW FLOOD STAGE IN A FEW DAYS IF NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURS. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM... MOSTLY JUST MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CONESVILLE.. WHICH WILL CREST
AT MODERATE LATER THIS WEEK.
THE IOWA RIVER AT WAPELLO IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE.
THIS LOCATION IS FORECAST TO CREST LATER THIS WEEK.
FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC
EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST: BAC... DAM... WES... RJW
IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.
$$
...JMP/JDT...
000
AGUS73 KMSR 221734
HMDMSR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1233 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
...PRECIPITATION...
IN THE PAST 24 HOURS... THE CUT-OFF LOW HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH AND
EASTWARD INTO IOWA... AND THE PRECIP PATTERN MOVED ACCORDINGLY.
CENTRAL MINNESOTA RECEIVED OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH REPORTS
OF AN INCH EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF WATERTOWN SOUTH DAKOTA TO
DULUTH MINNESOTA. NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN SAW SIMILAR TOTALS. CONVECTIVE STORMS MOVED THROUGH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND THE CHICAGO AREA... INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...
WITH TOTALS IN THE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS RANGE AND ISOLATED
OBSERVATIONS OVER AN INCH AND A HALF.
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS... THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND
BEGINS TO MERGE WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE RAIN WILL
MOVE OUT THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN... WITH TOTALS
IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. LOWER MICHIGAN IS EXPECTING AN
INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN.
INTO THE WEEKEND... THE LOW GIVES WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY... BEFORE
A MINOR SHORTWAVE MOVES IN BENEATH THE RIDGE... LIKELY BRINGING
THUNDERSTORMS TO IOWA AND MISSOURI.
...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVER THE NCRFC AREA IN THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS HAS CAUSE PORTIONS OF IOWA AND NORTH DAKOTA TO
EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING.
NORTH DAKOTA:
THE PEMBINA, TONGUE, AND PARK RIVERS IN THE RED RIVER OF THE
NORTH WATERSHED ARE EXPERIENCING MAJOR FLOODING. OTHER SMALLER
CREEKS/STREAMS/RIVERS IN THE AREA ARE LIKELY DANGEROUSLY HIGH.
THE PEMBINA RIVER ITSELF AT WALHALLA IS NOW IN RECESSION AFTER
CRESTING ABOVE MODERATE A COUPLE DAYS AGO. THE WATER HAS SINCE
ROUTED DOWNSTREAM AND CAUSED NECHE TO GO ABOVE MAJOR. NECHE HAS
NOW CRESTED... BUT DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY OF THE AREA... THIS AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE MAJOR FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO.
THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON IS ON A SHARP RISE AND CURRENTLY ABOVE
MAJOR. THE PARK RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST AROUND 16.5 FEET AT
GRAFTON... WHICH IS ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS FROM THE RECORD SET
IN APRIL 1950.
THE TONGUE RIVER AT AKRA IS EXPERIENCING RECORD FLOWS SINCE THE
CONSTRUCTION OF THE RENWICK DAM (1962). CURRENTLY THERE ARE FLOOD
FIGHTING OPERATIONS IN PLACE TO REINFORCE THE DAM IN HOPES OF
SAVING THE DAM... OR AT LEAST BUY SOME TIME TO CONTINUE MANDATORY
EVACUATIONS THAT ARE CURRENTLY ON-GOING.
ALL OF THIS WATER FROM THE RED RIVER TRIBUTARIES IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE SOME FLOODING ON THE MAINSTEM. MOST OF THE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR FOR NCRFC FORECAST POINTS. THE ONLY FORECAST
POINT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE MODERATE IS THE RED RIVER AT OSLO
MINNESOTA. OSLO IS EXPECTED TO CREST LATER THIS WEEK AROUND 32.5
FEET.
IOWA:
THE CEDAR RIVER AT CHARLES CITY WAS EXPERIENCING MAJOR FLOODING A
COUPLE DAYS AGO... BUT NOW IS IN RECESSION AND FALLING QUICKLY.
THIS WATER HAS ROUTED DOWNSTREAM TO JANESVILLE... WHICH IS
CRESTING NEAR MODERATE. CEDAR FALLS IS ALSO ON THE RISE AND
EXPECTED TO CREST IN ABOUT 12 HOURS NEAR THE MAJOR FLOOD CATEGORY.
WORKING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM... MOSTLY JUST MINOR FLOODING IS
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CONESVILLE.. WHICH WILL CREST AT
MODERATE LATER THIS WEEK.
THE IOWA RIVER AT WAPELLO IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE.
THIS LOCATION IS FORECAST TO CREST LATER THIS WEEK.
FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC
EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST: BAC... DAM... JDT... JMP
IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.
$$
...JMP/JDT...
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