Home > Products > Valid Products > HMD

000
AGUS73 KMSR 281801
HMDMSR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1205 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

...PRECIPITATION...

MAINLY FROM YESTERDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LAST NIGHT AN AREA OF
SNOW MOVED ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA ACROSS WISCONSIN TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.  MOST SNOWFALL
TOTALS IN THESE AREAS WERE ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH AVERAGE WATER
CONTENT AROUND A TENTH INCH OR LESS.  ALSO ONE TO THREE INCHES OF
SNOW FELL ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND IN LOWER MICHIGAN MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN AREAS.

IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST...MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE SAME AREA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND A
TENTH INCH OR LESS ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTH TO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...THE NORTHEAST HALF OF WISCONSIN...AND ACROSS
TO UPPER AND LOWER MICHIGAN.

...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

ONLY ONE LOCATION IN OUR AREA IS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME...
NAMELY SHELBY INDIANA ON THE KANKAKEE. IT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING
AN EXPECTED CREST OF 9.2 FEET TOMORROW. FLOOD STAGE THERE IS
9.0 FEET.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM PROBLEMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GO ON A ROLLER COASTER RIDE OF
BOUNCING AROUND FROM EXTREME COLD TO SOME MODERATION AND THEN BACK
AGAIN TO COLD. WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE WATCH OUT FOR THIS ICE PROBLEM
THREAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT:     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC


EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST: ALH DAM RHR

IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.


$$

...RHR/DAM...







000
AGUS73 KMSR 271733
HMDMSR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1130 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

...PRECIPITATION...

DURING THE PAST 24-HOURS...LIGHT SNOW FELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NCRFC REGION WHERE 1-2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WAS REPORTED. A HEAVIER
POCKET OF 4-7 INCHES WAS REPORTED IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND ON THE
SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN.

DURING THE NEXT 24-HOURS...MORE SNOW IS IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTH
DAKOTA...MINNESOTA...WESTERN WISCONSIN AND THE GREAT LAKES AREA OF
MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR A SITE IN NORTHERN INDIANA AS A
RESULT OF WEEKEND RAINS AND SNOWMELT.

THIS HAS BEEN A CHALLENGING EVENT TO FORECAST FOR A NUMBER OF
REASONS..

   - PRECIPITATION GAGE QUALITY CONTROL

     QUALITY CONTROL OF TIPPING BUCKET PRECIPITATION GAGES HAS
     BEEN DIFFICULT BECAUSE WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE MELTED SNOW
     THAT ACCUMULATED IN THEM.

     OTHER GAGES HAVE BEEN COVERED
     AND REPORTED ZEROS.  IN EITHER CASE.. THEY DO NOT REPRESENT
     THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT FELL.

   - RIVER ICE

     MANY RIVERS WERE ELEVATED COMING INTO THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
     FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE
     EFFECTS OF THAT ICE ON THE RATING CURVE DURING THE RISE.

     WE HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME RIVER GAGES SPIKE UP AS BREAK-UP
     ICE JAMS FORM AND RELEASE.  WE MUST BE CAREFUL NOT TO ROUTE
     THAT SPIKE DOWNSTREAM BECAUSE IT IS NOT A TRUE
     REPRESENTATION OF THE FLOW HYDROGRAPH.

   - COLD TEMPERATURE FORECAST

     AIR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DURING
     THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY FREEZE
     RUNOFF EN ROUTE TO THE RIVERS CAUSING RIVER LEVELS TO DROP
     MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED.

     CONVERSELY.. AT LOCATIONS PRONE TO FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS..
     RIVER LEVELS MAY RISE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AS THE COLD
     TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY HIGH STREAMFLOWS CAN COMBINE TO
     FORM FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS.



FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT:     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC


EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST: RJW  DAM   RHR

IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.


$$

...JCH/BAC...







000
AGUS73 KMSR 261614
HMDMSR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1015 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...PRECIPITATION...

DURING THE PAST 24-HOURS...LIGHT SNOW FELL ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS...MINNESOTA...IOWA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SNOWFALL
TOTALS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE WITH A HEAVIER BAND OF
AROUND 6 INCHES FALLING IN NORTHERN SOURIS RIVER BASIN IN NORTH
DAKOTA.

DURING THE NEXT 24-HOURS...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ...IOWA...MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. SNOWFALL
TOTALS OF 1-6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. A HEAVIER BAND OF 6-12 INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW.


...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR A FEW SITES IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND
LOWER MICHIGAN AS A RESULT OF WEEKEND RAINS AND SNOWMELT.

THIS HAS BEEN A CHALLENGING EVENT TO FORECAST FOR A NUMBER OF
REASONS..

   - PRECIPITATION GAGE QUALITY CONTROL

     QUALITY CONTROL OF TIPPING BUCKET PRECIPITATION GAGES HAS
     BEEN DIFFICULT BECAUSE WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE MELTED SNOW
     THAT ACCUMULATED IN THEM.

     OTHER GAGES HAVE BEEN COVERED
     AND REPORTED ZEROS.  IN EITHER CASE.. THEY DO NOT REPRESENT
     THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT FELL.

   - RIVER ICE

     MANY RIVERS WERE ELEVATED COMING INTO THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
     FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE
     EFFECTS OF THAT ICE ON THE RATING CURVE DURING THE RISE.

     WE HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME RIVER GAGES SPIKE UP AS BREAK-UP
     ICE JAMS FORM AND RELEASE.  WE MUST BE CAREFUL NOT TO ROUTE
     THAT SPIKE DOWNSTREAM BECAUSE IT IS NOT A TRUE
     REPRESENTATION OF THE FLOW HYDROGRAPH.

   - COLD TEMPERATURE FORECAST

     AIR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY DURING
     THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY FREEZE
     RUNOFF EN ROUTE TO THE RIVERS CAUSING RIVER LEVELS TO DROP
     MORE QUICKLY THAN EXPECTED.

     CONVERSELY.. AT LOCATIONS PRONE TO FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS..
     RIVER LEVELS MAY RISE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AS THE COLD
     TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY HIGH STREAMFLOWS CAN COMBINE TO
     FORM FREEZE-UP ICE JAMS.


FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT:     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC


EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST: RJW .. SDB .. BAC .. JCH

IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.


$$

...JCH/BAC...







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities