000
AGUS73 KMSR 181728
HMDMSR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1228 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

...PRECIPITATION...

IN THE PAST 24 HOURS... A SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH CAUSING SOME
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH DAKOTA... MINNESOTA... NORTHERN
IOWA AND WISCONSIN.  REPORTS SHOW UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE
SOURIS RIVER BASIN OF NORTH DAKOTA... OVER TWO INCHES IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND OVER AN INCH IN SOUTHERN AND FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ISOLATED STORMS ALSO DROPPED UP TO AN INCH OF
RAIN LOCALLY IN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.

IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS... EXPECT MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP PARTICULARLY IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA WHERE RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES.

THE TROF IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE IN THROUGH TOMORROW
AND FORM A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT... MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL COMBINE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE NCRFC REGION
UNDER THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN WITH HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE EVERY DAY THIS WEEK.

...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

MOST RIVERS IN THE NCRFC AREA ARE IN RECESSION. PORTIONS OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER (HAVANNA TO BEARDSTOWN) AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER
(LOCK AND DAM 17 TO 21) ARE STILL ABOVE THE MODERATE FLOOD
CATEGORY... BUT ARE SLOWLY FALLING.

THE SOURIS RIVER AT WEST HOPE NORTH DAKOTA IS THE ONLY OTHER RIVER
WITH MODERATE OR ABOVE FORECAST AT THIS TIME BESIDES THE
MISSISSIPPI AND ILLINOIS MAINSTEM RIVERS.  WEST HOPE IS NEAR
CREST AND EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY FALLING IN A COUPLE DAYS.

PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER BASIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME
MODERATE FLOOD FORECAST FROM THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS... ALTHOUGH ONLY MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH 24 HOURS PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT:     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC


EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST:  BAC... DAM... JDT... JMP

IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.


$$

...JMP/JDT...

000
AGUS73 KMSR 171739
HMDMSR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1238 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

...PRECIPITATION...

IN THE PAST 24 HOURS... RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DROPPED
OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN THE IOWA-MINNESOTA BORDER REGION WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS AND STREAKS OF 1-3 INCHES. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
ALSO POPPED UP IN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS... LEAVING BEHIND POCKETS
UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN.  AND NORTH DAKOTA SAW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE WITH AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN
THE UPPER SHEYENNE RIVER AREA.

THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROFS THAT ARE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPER LOW PRESSURE
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THAT LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A
CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WE CAN EXPECT MORE ISOLATED STREAKS OF FAIRLY INTENSE
STORMS. TODAY THESE ARE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA.  TOMORROW... THE SOURIS
AND RED RIVER DRAINAGES OF NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA LOOK TO BE
IN THE CROSS HAIRS FOR OVER AN INCH OF RAIN.

AS THE LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES... EXPECT MINNESOTA AND IOWA TO BE
THE FOCUS ON SUNDAY NIGHT... AND MISSOURI... ILLINOIS... WISCONSIN
AND MICHIGAN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

MOST RIVERS IN THE NCRFC AREA ARE IN RECESSION. PORTIONS OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER (HAVANNA TO BEARDSTOWN) AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER
(LOCK AND DAM 17 TO 21) ARE STILL ABOVE THE MODERATE FLOOD
CATEGORY... BUT ARE SLOWLY FALLING.

THE SOURIS RIVER AT WEST HOPE NORTH DAKOTA IS THE ONLY OTHER RIVER
WITH MODERATE OR ABOVE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  WEST HOPE IS NEAR
CREST AND EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY FALLING IN A COUPLE DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT:     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC

EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST:  BAC... DAM... JDT... JMP

IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.


$$

...JMP/JDT...

000
AGUS73 KMSR 161533
HMDMSR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1035 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

...PRECIPITATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL APPROACH THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND DEVELOP INTO A
CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.

IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...RAIN SHOWERS FELL OVER
IOWA...MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...AND INDIANA WITH ISOLATED REPORTS OF
OVER AN INCH.  MOST REPORTS RANGED FROM A TENTH TO HALF AN INCH OF
RAIN.  SOME LIGHT RAIN ALSO FELL OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.

IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MINNESOTA COULD
RECEIVE AN INCH OF RAIN AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.  LIGHTER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE NCRFC.  DAYS 2
THROUGH 5 LOOK WET WITH 5 DAY TOTALS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE DAKOTAS...MINNESOTA...IOWA...WESTERN WISCONSIN...AND THE
WESTERN U.P. OF MICHIGAN.

...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

MOST RIVERS IN THE NCRFC AREA ARE IN RECESSION.

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FROM LOCK AND DAM 14 TO LOCK AND DAM 22. MINOR FLOODING IS
OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF LOCK AND DAM 22 AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.

MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE SOURIS RIVER FROM LATE
SPRING SNOWMELT WITH MOST LOCATIONS SLOWLY RECEDING.


FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT:     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC

EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST:  RJW LLD JDT JMP

IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.


$$

...BSITES/JCH...