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000
AGUS76 KRSA 171653
HMDRSA

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
850 AM PST WED DEC 17 2014

...RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...
...LOOK FOR DRYING CONDITIONS TO SET UP EARLY NEXT WEEK...


.24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS (ENDING DEC 17 AT 400 AM PST)...

A S/WV TROF MOVED THROUGH THE REGION BEGINNING YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING MODERATE PRECIP TO MOST OF THE REGION. WHILE
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH FELL IN SOUTHERN OREGON AND THE SMITH
BASIN...AMOUNTS INCREASED OVER THE REST OF THE NORTH COAST. OVER THE
EEL R BASIN...1-2" PRECIP FELL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE
RUSSIAN PICKED UP AROUND 1-1.5"...AND THE NAPA RECEIVED 0.5-1"
PRECIP. FURTHER SOUTH...THE SANTA CRUZ AND SANTA LUCIA MTNS MEASURED
0.75-1.25" PRECIP. THE TRANSVERSE RANGES OVER SOUTHERN CA RECEIVED
AROUND 0.5-1" PRECIP...EXCEPT OVER THE SAN GABRIELS N OF GLENDALE
WHERE 1.5-2" PRECIP WAS REPORTED. MTNS IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY RECEIVED
AROUND 0.5-1". COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS IN SRN CA MEASURED
AROUND 0.25-0.75" PRECIP.

FURTHER INLAND OVER THE SHASTA DRAINAGE AS WELL AS THE FEATHER R
BASIN...1-1.5" PRECIP WAS REPORTED WITH UP TO 2" ALONG FAVORED
SLOPES OF THE WESTERN SIDE. OVER THE AMERICAN R BASIN AROUND 0.5-
0.75" PRECIP WAS MEASURED WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL
SIERRA. THE SOUTHERN SIERRA PICKED UP A MERE 0.1-0.3" PRECIP. OVER
THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY...0.5-0.75" PRECIP WAS RECORDED...WITH UP TO
AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY RECEIVED 0.1-0.4"
PRECIP THROUGH THE EARLY AM HOURS.

EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST...LESS THAN 0.2" PRECIP FELL...WITH JUST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS AROUND THE RENO AREA. AROUND 0.05-0.1" WAS RECORDED
OVER SCATTERED AREAS IN NORTHERN NEVADA.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: WED AM - SAT AM)...

WV/IR IMAGERY INDICATES ONE S/WV TROF MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CA
WHILE WEAKER ONE IS CROSSING FROM NE CA INTO NW NEV. OFFSHORE...THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING INTO THE GENERAL UPR TROF ALONG THE
WEST COAST. THIS S/WV TROF IS LOCATED NEAR 40N/130W. 88-D MOSAIC IS
SHOWING SCATTERED PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES WITH
THE HEAVIEST SINCE 17/12Z FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SW
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY SOUTH TO SAN DIEGO COUNTY. PRECIP GAGES IN
THIS AREA SHOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 0.33- TO 0.50-INCH RANGE
WITH A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS NEARING 0.75-INCH.

AS THE S/WV TROF MOVES OUT OF SOUTHERN CA ON ITS WAY TOWARD
AZ...PRECIP WILL BE ON THE DECREASE. THE S/WV TROF FARTHER NORTH
NEAR THE CA/NEV BORDER WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFF TOWARD THE NE.
ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE OFFSHORE S/WV TROF DROPPING SE ALONG THE
NORTH COAST...BECOMING ELONGATED AND WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INLAND.
LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN CA WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL CA.

INTO THU...THIS S/WV TROF WILL MOVE OFF TOWARD THE EAST WITH A
FAIRLY QUICK MOVING UPR RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT WAA PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHERN CA.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
MODELS IN TERMS OF STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS
NORTHERN CA AND THEN DISSIPATES OVER CENTRAL CA. FOR NOW...FOLLOWED
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 17/09Z SREF...WHICH OFFERS A DECENT COMPROMISE.
BEST PRECIP WILL FALL OVER AREAS NEAR OR NORTH OF I-80 DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY...AND THEN PRECIP WILL FALL APART AS THE S/WV
TROF MOVES INLAND.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: SAT AM - TUE AM)...

BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT
OVER SOUTHERN CA...WITH JUST THE EC HOLDING TOGETHER SOME NORTH
SLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE SANTA MONICA AND SAN GABRIEL MTNS. THE NEXT
SYSTEM FOLLOWS QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS HOWEVER...WITH PRECIP EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTH COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE PRECIP LATER SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...THIS SYSTEM IS HANG ON ALONG FAR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...FINALLY EXITING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTH COAST...SHASTA
DRAINAGE...UPPER KLAMATH...AND NORTHERN NEVADA.

BY MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL DOMINATE THE
PATTERN. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIMETER OF NV LATE MON PM ASSOCIATED W THE DIRTY RIDGE. A POSSIBLE
INSIDE SLIDER REMAINS ON THE HORIZON FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY TO
BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.


.HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

THE WET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PERIODIC RISES ON MOST
CALIFORNIA RIVERS TODAY.  THESE FLUCTUATING RIVER CONDITIONS WITH
MANY FLOWS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT WITH MORE OF A NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FOCUS.
ON THE SACRAMENTO RIVER...OVERFLOW INTO THE SUTTER BYPASS IS
OCCURRING OR EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT COLUSA AND TISDALE WEIRS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.  A RISE TO JUST BELOW MONITOR STAGE ON THE SAN DIEGO
RIVER AT FASHION VALLEY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

ALL OTHER RIVER STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MONITOR LEVELS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MORE INFORMATION ON THE CNRFC WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV

JM/DRK/JM/AM

$$





000
AGUS76 KRSA 161646
HMDRSA

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
845 AM PST TUE DEC 16 2014

...ONE SYSTEM EXITING WITH NEXT MOVING OVER THE AREA TODAY...
...NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP MOVES IN UP NORTH ON FRIDAY...

.24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS (ENDING DEC 16 AT 400 AM PST)...

A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHED THROUGH THE STATE YESTERDAY...
BRINGING PRECIP TO MUCH CA. OVER THE SMITH BASIN...AROUND A THIRD OF
AN INCH WAS REPORTED...WITH 0.5-1" OVER THE EEL AND UP TO 1.75"
ACROSS THE FAVORED TIP OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THE UPPER PORTION OF THE
RUSSIAN AS WELL AS THE NAPA RECEIVED AROUND 0.5-1.0" PRECIP WHILE
LOWER PORTIONS PICKED UP CLOSER TO 1-1.5". THE SANTA CRUZ MTNS AND
THE SANTA LUCIA MTNS RECEIVED 1-2" PRECIP WITH UP TO 2.5" OVER
FAVORED TERRAIN. GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25" PRECIP WAS REPORTED SOUTH
TO LOS ANGELES COUNTY...THOUGH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 0.5-1" FELL OVER THE
SANTA YNEZ MTNS AND NEAR PT CONCEPTION.

MOVING INLAND...THE W SLOPES OF THE SRN OREGON CASCADES MEASURED
SPOTTY AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO 0.4". SIMILAR
NUMBERS WERE FOUND EAST OF THE CREST. THE SHASTA DRAINAGE PICKED UP
1-1.5" OVER THE WEST SIDE...WITH 0.75-1" ALONG THE EAST SIDE. THE
NORTHERN SIERRA RECEIVED 1.5-2" NEAR THE FEATHER R BASIN...WITH
CLOSER TO 0.75-1.25" OVER THE AMERICAN. THE CENTRAL SIERRA MEASURED
AROUND 0.4-0.8" PRECIP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH LESS
THAN 0.2" OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA.

THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY RECEIVED AROUND 0.5-1" PRECIP YESTERDAY...WITH
AMOUNTS ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THAT RANGE OVER THE N SIDE OF THE
VALLEY. SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TOTALS WERE GENERALLY 0.1-0.3" PRECIP.
EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST...AMOUNTS FELL TO LESS THAN 0.25"...WITH
JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS MAKING IT EAST INTO NEVADA.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: TUE AM - FRI AM)...

GENERAL UPR TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS AND JUST
INLAND OVER THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING. ONE S/WV TROF IS CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE SIERRA ON ITS WAY NE TOWARD NEVADA AND EVENTUALLY THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE NEXT S/WV TROF IS STRENGTHENING JUST WEST OF
CAPE MENDOCINO NEAR 40N/130W. 88-D MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER CELLS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SIERRA...AS WELL AS COASTAL
SECTIONS FROM SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY DOWN TO THE US/MEXICO BORDER.
SO FAR...PRECIP GAGES INDICATE AMOUNTS SINCE 16/12Z NEAR OR BELOW
0.25-INCH.

ECHOES WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP ARE ALREADY EVIDENT JUST OFF
THE NORTH COAST. AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM IS
HOVERING JUST OVER 0.75-INCH ACCORDING TO THE LATEST BLENDED TPW
IMAGERY. THIS ISN/T TOO IMPRESSIVE...BUT THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FROM
THE APPROACHING S/WV TROF...SFC LOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH
COAST...AND AN APPROX 110-KT UPR JET STREAK NOSING FROM NW-TO-SE
JUST OFF THE COAST WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME DECENT PRECIP
AMOUNTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND A SUBSEQUENT
WEAKER S/WV TROF MOVING INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AS WELL. GENERAL
TREND OF THE MORNING QPF ISSUANCE WAS TO INCREASE AMOUNTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CA COAST...AND
INLAND OVER THE SHASTA DRAINAGE AND SIERRA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. NOT AS IMPRESSED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CA AS THE MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH...MID-LEVEL FLOW DOESN/T
RAMP UP THAT MUCH...AND THE BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN NEAR OR NORTH OF PT
CONCEPTION. AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA WERE TRIMMED SLIGHTLY.

A TRANSITORY UPR RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY FOR
DRIER CONDITIONS. THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL REACH THE
NORTH COAST LATE IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: FRI AM - MON AM)...

MODELS BEGIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT...THEN DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
WHICH DIGS A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND DRIVES A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO
THE PAC NW FRIDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTH COAST BY FRIDAY AM AS WELL...BRINGING A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TO THE NORTH COAST. THIS
SYSTEM SLIDES S OF CAPE MENDOCINO AND INLAND TOWARDS SHASTA BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOLDING TOGETHER WELL ENOUGH TO CONTINUE AT LEAST
MODERATE PRECIP RATES. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
PRECIP BEGINS TO WANE...WITH THE FRONTAL BAND ALIGNED FROM THE BAY
AREA TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA. SHOWERY
CONDITIONS HANG ON DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE
SANTA CRUZ MTNS AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SIERRA UNDER MOIST WESTERLY
FLOW LEFT BEHIND BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY SATURDAY...MODELS TAKE A DIFFERENT APPROACH WITH THE NEXT WAVE
THRUST OUT BY THE G.O.A. LOW. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
PAC NW SATURDAY MORNING...MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CA LATE SAT AM.
THE GFS IS LESS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIP TO THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF CA WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE PRECIP SATURDAY EVENING ALONG THE SMITH BASIN AND LIGHT
SHOWERS OTHERWISE SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN. THE EC...HOWEVER...IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE AND PULLS LIGHT PRECIP THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY
INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD FROM SAT
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUN WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP OVER
THE NORTH COAST. THE EC FINALLY LIGHTENS UP LATER SUN AM...BUT DOES
NOT COMPLETELY DRY OUT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. WPC PREFERRED THE EC IN THE LATER
TERM...SO WENT WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR THE SAT-SUN PERIOD.


.HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

PERIODIC RAINFALL FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE FLUCTUATING RIVER CONDITIONS ON MANY OF THE RIVERS AND
STREAMS ACROSS CALIFORNIA.  A MODERATE RISE ON THE UPPER SACRAMENTO
RIVER IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RENEWED OVERFLOW INTO THE SUTTER BYPASS
AT TISDALE WEIR AND POSSIBLY COLUSA WEIR.   A RISE TO JUST BELOW
MONITOR LEVEL ON THE SAN DIEGO RIVER AT FASHION VALLEY IS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY.  ALL OTHER STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
MONITOR LEVELS.

ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE STORAGE LEVELS IN THE
STATES MAJOR RESERVOIRS, THE WET START TO THE WINTER SEASON IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME MEASURABLE IMPROVEMENT FROM A MONTH AGO.


MORE INFORMATION ON THE CNRFC WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV

JM/DRK/JM/AM

$$





000
AGUS76 KRSA 151718 RRA
HMDRSA

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PST MON DEC 15 2014

...ENTER A FOCUS HEADLINE HERE...

.24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS (ENDING DEC 15 AT 400 AM PST)...

AN INITIAL WEAK S/WV TROF ROTATED THROUGH NORTHERN CA TOWARD THE
PACNW YESTERDAY WITH A STRONGER S/WV TROF APPROACHING THE CENTRAL CA
COAST THIS MORNING.

PRECIP WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE AREAS NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTHWARD. HEAVIEST WAS OBSERVED WITH THE APPROACHING SECOND
STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE SF BAY AREA.

FOR THE SF BAY AREA AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 0.10-INCH SOUTH TO JUST OVER
1.00-INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARIN COUNTY. FARTHER UP THE
NORTH COAST AMOUNTS WERE SCATTERED...BETWEEN 0.10-INCH AND 0.75-INCH.

INLAND FROM THE COAST AMOUNTS WERE LIGHT...NEAR 0.10-INCH OR LESS.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: MON AM - THU AM)...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CNTRL CA WITH A MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDING OFFSHORE TOWARD THE SW.  AMSU DATA SHOWS PW VALUES AROUND
1.1" IN THE CORE OF THE PLUME.  WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE JUST
OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST MOVING TO THE NE.  ANOTHER ENHANCEMENT CAN BE
SEEN JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH RADAR
SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS.  EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE
PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF NRN AND CNTRL CA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE VORT
MAX SWINGS INLAND AND THE FRONT SINKS TOWARD PT CONCEPTION.  LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MON NIGHT
UNDER A TROUGH.  MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE TUE-WED
SYSTEM, SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
AND MORE MODERATE TOTALS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SIERRA AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  DRYING IS EXPECTED BY WED
NIGHT.  FREEZING LEVELS 4000-8000 FT.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: THU AM - SUN AM)...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A S/WV TROF EXITING THE REGION ACROSS AZ AND
NM...WHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS
CROSSING 140W. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS
THE PACNW DOWN TO THE CA/ORE BORDER AREA WITH LIGHT PRECIP.

PRECIP WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTH COAST LATE DURING
THE THURSDAY EVENING PERIOD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
DOWN TO THE GOLDEN GATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHEN IT COMES TO THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE 15/00Z EC IS THE STRONGEST...WHILE THE
15/06Z GFS AND 15/00Z GEM ARE WEAKER. WPC PREFERS THE MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION OFFERED UP BY THE EC...AND FELT NO REASON TO DISAGREE. THIS
BRINGS HIGHER TOTALS TO THE REGION...AND HOLDS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO SOUTHERN CA. A SECONDARY S/WV TROF ROTATING THROUGH THE GENERAL
UPR TROF WILL KEEP LIGHT PRECIP GOING ACROSS THE CA/ORE BORDER AREA
ON SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY SUNDAY.


.HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

HIGH WATER FROM LAST WEEK`S PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY
DOWNSTREAM ON THE SACRAMENTO RIVER THIS MORNING.  THE CREST OF THIS
CURRENT RISE ON THE SACRAMENTO RIVER IS IN THE VICINITY OF FREMONT
WEIR THIS MORNING.  WHILE THE SACRAMENTO RIVER AT FREMONT WEIR IS
WITHIN SIX INCHES OF REACHING MONITOR STAGE, OVERFLOW INTO THE YOLO
BYPASS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERFLOW INTO THE SUTTER BYPASS CONTINUES AT TISDALE WEIR.  OVERFLOW
STOPPED AT MOULTON WEIR AND COLUSA WEIR. TISDALE WEIR IS FORECAST TO
END OVERFLOW THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN FORECAST FOR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR RISES
ACROSS THE CNRFC REGION.  WHILE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SMALL ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE ANY
FLOODING CONCERNS AT CNRFC FORECAST POINTS

ALL OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE CNRFC FORECAST AREA ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW...AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW MONITOR LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.


MORE INFORMATION ON THE CNRFC WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV

DRK/KL/DRK/PF

$$





000
AGUS76 KRSA 151718
HMDRSA

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PST MON DEC 15 2014

...ENTER A FOCUS HEADLINE HERE...

.24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS (ENDING DEC 15 AT 400 AM PST)...

AN INITIAL WEAK S/WV TROF ROTATED THROUGH NORTHERN CA TOWARD THE
PACNW YESTERDAY WITH A STRONGER S/WV TROF APPROACHING THE CENTRAL CA
COAST THIS MORNING.

PRECIP WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE AREAS NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTHWARD. HEAVIEST WAS OBSERVED WITH THE APPROACHING SECOND
STRONGER SYSTEM OVER THE SF BAY AREA.

FOR THE SF BAY AREA AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 0.10-INCH SOUTH TO JUST OVER
1.00-INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARIN COUNTY. FARTHER UP THE
NORTH COAST AMOUNTS WERE SCATTERED...BETWEEN 0.10-INCH AND 0.75-INCH.

INLAND FROM THE COAST AMOUNTS WERE LIGHT...NEAR 0.10-INCH OR LESS.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: MON AM - THU AM)...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CNTRL CA WITH A MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDING OFFSHORE TOWARD THE SW.  AMSU DATA SHOWS PW VALUES AROUND
1.1" IN THE CORE OF THE PLUME.  WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE JUST
OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST MOVING TO THE NE.  ANOTHER ENHANCEMENT CAN BE
SEEN JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH RADAR
SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS.  EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE
PRECIP OVER PORTIONS OF NRN AND CNTRL CA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE VORT
MAX SWINGS INLAND AND THE FRONT SINKS TOWARD PT CONCEPTION.  LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO MON NIGHT
UNDER A TROUGH.  MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE TUE-WED
SYSTEM, SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
AND MORE MODERATE TOTALS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SIERRA AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  DRYING IS EXPECTED BY WED
NIGHT.  FREEZING LEVELS 4000-8000 FT.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: THU AM - SUN AM)...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A S/WV TROF EXITING THE REGION ACROSS AZ AND
NM...WHILE THE NEXT SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS
CROSSING 140W. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS
THE PACNW DOWN TO THE CA/ORE BORDER AREA WITH LIGHT PRECIP.

PRECIP WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTH COAST LATE DURING
THE THURSDAY EVENING PERIOD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
DOWN TO THE GOLDEN GATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WHEN IT COMES TO THE
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE 15/00Z EC IS THE STRONGEST...WHILE THE
15/06Z GFS AND 15/00Z GEM ARE WEAKER. WPC PREFERS THE MORE AMPLIFIED
SOLUTION OFFERED UP BY THE EC...AND FELT NO REASON TO DISAGREE. THIS
BRINGS HIGHER TOTALS TO THE REGION...AND HOLDS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO SOUTHERN CA. A SECONDARY S/WV TROF ROTATING THROUGH THE GENERAL
UPR TROF WILL KEEP LIGHT PRECIP GOING ACROSS THE CA/ORE BORDER AREA
ON SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY SUNDAY.


.HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

HIGH WATER FROM LAST WEEK`S PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY
DOWNSTREAM ON THE SACRAMENTO RIVER THIS MORNING.  THE CREST OF THIS
CURRENT RISE ON THE SACRAMENTO RIVER IS IN THE VICINITY OF FREMONT
WEIR THIS MORNING.  WHILE THE SACRAEMNTO RIVER AT FREMONT WEIR IS
WITHIN SIX INCHES OF REACHING MONITOR STAGE, OVERFLOW INTO THE YOLO
BYPASS IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OVERFLOW INTO THE SUTTER BYPASS CONTINUES AT TISDALE WEIR.  OVERFLOW
STOPPED AT MOULTON WEIR AND COLUSA WEIR. TISDALE WEIR IS FORECAST TO
END OVERFLOW THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN FORECAST FOR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR RISES
ACROSS THE CNRFC REGION.  WHILE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SMALL ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE ANY
FLOODING CONCERNS AT CNRFC FORECAST POINTS

ALL OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE CNRFC FORECAST AREA ARE
CURRENTLY BELOW...AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW MONITOR LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY.


MORE INFORMATION ON THE CNRFC WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV

DRK/KL/DRK/PF

$$





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