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000
AGUS76 KRSA 311755
HMDRSA

ZCZC RNOWRKHMD 311747
TTAA00 KRNO DDHHMM

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
955 AM PST SAT JAN 31 2015

...PRECIP WRAPPING UP OVER SRN CA/NV THIS AFTERNOON...
...SYSTEM TO BRING PRECIP TO FAR NRN CA/SRN OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...
...POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN SYSTEM AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING...

.24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS (ENDING JAN 31 AT 400 AM PST)...

AN UPPER LOW BROUGHT PRECIP TO SRN CA AND NV STARTING YESTERDAY. THE
SRN SIERRA AND TEHACHAPI MTNS PICKED UP LESS THAN 0.1"...WHILE SOME
LOCATIONS ON THE EAST SIDE MEASURED UP TO 0.2". THE SAN GABRIEL AND
SAN BERNADINO MNTNS PICKED UP 0.05-0.2" PRECIP...WITH SIMILAR
AMOUNTS STRETCHING DOWN THE MNTNS OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES. COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS PICKED UP JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS. THE DESERTS SAW UP TO 0.2" PRECIP...WHILE THE LAS VEGAS
METRO AREA SAW ANYWHERE FROM 0.1" TO UPWARDS OF 0.5". EASTERN NEVADA
GENERALLY RECEIVED UNDER 0.1" AS WELL.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SAT AM - FRI AM)...

SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE EDGING INTO
NRN CA WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS...WHILE AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN NEAR THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER. LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER SRN
NEVADA AND THE DESERTS IN EASTERN SAN BERNADINO COUNTY...THOUGH
THINGS ARE WRAPPING UP AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE WANES. AFTER A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE SRN CA MTNS FROM BIG BEAR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO TAKE OVER YET AGAIN.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER FAR NRN CA SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL PATTERN
HITTING THE SMITH BASIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. MODELS EXPECT PRECIP TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND BECOME
MODERATE BY MONDAY MORNING...AND EXTEND DOWN TO CAPE MENDOCINO AND
POSSIBLY EVEN PT ARENA. PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS ONTO MODERATE PRECIP CONTINUING LONGER THAN THE EC
DOES. THE EC LIFTS THE PRECIP BAND NORTHWARD BY TUES AM...WHILE THE
GFS HANGS ON THROUGH TUES AFTERNOON. TOOK A MORE GFS-CENTRIC STAB AT
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AND WRAPPED UP PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT.

RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH MID-WEEK...THEN EXPECT A
BIG PATTERN SHIFT AS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT RAIN-MAKER IN OVER A
MONTH APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CA COAST THURSDAY. BOTH THE EC AND GFS
HAVE BEEN HONING IN ON THIS SYSTEM FOR A FEW DAYS NOW...AND
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR
NORTHERN CA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL BEGIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
INCREASING IN INTENSITY BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT NOT MAKING TREMENDOUS
INLAND PROGRESS YET. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
SPEED AND QPF OUTPUT FOR THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH BOTH AGREE THAT IT
WILL BE A VERY WARM ONE WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS (9000-FT OR ABOVE).


.HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACTS ON AREA RIVERS.  SOME MINOR RISES ARE FORECAST FOR
WATERSHEDS ALONG THE FAR NORTH COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTHERN
OREGON.

SOME MINOR SNOWMELT IS OCCURING IN HIGH ELEVATION BASINS.  THE
SNOWMELT IS CAUSING SOME VERY MINOR RISES IN THE SIERRA NEVADA
WATERSHEDS.  MOST AREA RIVERS ARE EITHER FLAT OR RECEDING.

ALL RIVER STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW MONITOR LEVELS
THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.


MORE INFORMATION ON THE CNRFC WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV

JM/PF

$$





000
AGUS76 KRSA 301728
HMDRSA

ZCZC RNOWRKHMD 301614
TTAA00 KRNO DDHHMM

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

...CONTINUING PRECIP OVER SRN CA AND NV THROUGH TONIGHT...
...LIGHT PRECIP OVER FAR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS (ENDING JAN 30 AT 400 AM PST)...

RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND A TROUGH NEAR THE CA COAST
BROUGHT SLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SRN CA AND NV.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION FELL
ACROSS MANY PORTIONS OF SRN CA AND ERN PORTIONS OF NV, WITH
VIRTUALLY ALL LOCATIONS RECEIVING LESS THAN 0.1".


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: FRI AM - MON AM)...

SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH
QUITE THE DRY SLOT ON WV IMAGERY...WITH A SYSTEM PULLING SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM MEXICO NORTH INTO SRN CA AND NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM IS
PUMPING THE MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION...
THOUGH PLENTY IS STILL MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE SRN CA AND NV DESERTS
THIS MORNING. MOIST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW IS BRINGING
PRECIP INTO THE SRN CA COAST AND MTNS AS WELL THIS MORNING.

THIS MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT 24-HRS. THE UPPER LOW DRIVING THE SOUTHERLY PUSH IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER SRN CA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
TODAY...WITH PRECIP TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE SAME AREAS UNTIL
TONIGHT. MAY SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
SRN SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING SOME PRECIP TO THE EAST SIDE AND
ALONG THE CREST. OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL NUDGE EASTWARD...SLOWLY KICKING
THE UPPER LOW TO THE SE. THIS WILL CUT OFF MOISTURE OVER SRN CA/NV
AND SLOWLY BRING AN END TO THE PRECIP OVER THE REGION. EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AGAIN BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON.

RIDGING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH MID DAY ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONTAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THE SOUTHERN EDGE SHOULD BRUSH THE SMITH BASIN BY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SMITH
BASIN AND UPPER KLAMATH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON
SUNDAY...WHILE A SLIGHTLY HEAVIER PUSH WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY AM.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: MON AM - THU AM)...

EXPECT THE LONG-RANGE PERIOD TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY A MOISTURE PLUME
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER A WEAK RIDGE NEAR THE CA COAST,
BRINGING GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COAST AS WELL AS
FAR NRN CA/NV AND SRN OREGON THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MODELS AGREE WELL
EARLY ON WITH THE LIGHT RAIN PICKING UP ON THE NORTH COAST MON
MORNING AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME REACHES THE
COASTLINE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.1" ALONG WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.
LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS FAR NRN CA/NV AND SRN
OREGON THROUGH MON EVENING.

MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT FOR TUE, WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING
THE MOISTURE PLUME AIMED INTO NW CA WHILE OTHERS LIFT THE PLUME A
BIT INTO OREGON.  WILL KEEP LIGHT PRECIP GOING THROUGH WED ACROSS
THE SAME NRN TIER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND A
MOISTURE PLUME IN THE VICINITY.  BY WED NIGHT, MODELS LIFT THE PLUME
TO THE NORTH ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT AS A LOW DEEPENS IN THE NE PAC.
EXPECT FREEZING LEVELS TO HOVER AROUND 7500-8500 FT.  MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A WET PATTERN SETTING UP TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK, AT LEAST FOR NRN CA AND SRN OREGON.


.HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE COMING WEEKEND WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON
AREA RIVERS. SOME MINOR SNOWMELT IS OCCURING IN HIGH ELEVATION
BASINS WHICH IS CAUSING SOME VERY MINOR RISES.  MOST AREA RIVERS ARE
EITHER FLAT OR RECEDING.

ALL RIVER STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW MONITOR LEVELS
THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.


MORE INFORMATION ON THE CNRFC WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV

KL/JM/KL/PF

$$





000
AGUS76 KRSA 291541
HMDRSA

ZCZC RNOWRKHMD 291514
TTAA00 KRNO DDHHMM

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
740 AM PST THU JAN 29 2015

...PRECIP FOR SE CA UP INTO S NEV TODAY AND TOMORROW...
...LIGHT PRECIP NEAR CA/ORE BORDER AND FAR N NEV SUN AND MON...

.24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS (ENDING JAN 29 AT 400 AM PST)...

WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WEST KEPT THE REGION DRY OVER THE LAST
24-HRS.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: THU AM - SUN AM)...

UPR RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED EAST OF THE AREA FROM THE 4-CORNERS STATES
NNW TOWARD WESTERN CANADA. A COUPLE WEAK UPR LOWS ARE SPINNING JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST. THE FIRST IS LOCATED NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO...WHILE
THE SECOND IS TO THE SW OF THE REGION...WEST OF CENTRAL BAJA. OVER
THE NEXT 3 DAYS...THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL DRIFT TO THE NE AND
STRENGTHEN...WHILE THE NORTHERN LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTH ALONG
THE CA COAST AND BECOME ENGULFED BY THE OTHER SYSTEM.

MOISTURE IS ALREADY ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPR LOW. MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS ALREADY
STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE US. THE 29/12Z KNKX
RAOB SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED LAYER ABOVE 600-MB. BELOW THIS
LEVEL...THERE IS A DECENT DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER THAT WILL NEED TO BE
SATURATED BEFORE PRECIP REACHES THE GROUND. 88-D MOSAIC DOES SHOW
SOME WEAK ECHOES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CA NE TOWARD EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEV...BUT MOST LIKELY NONE OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND.

THROUGH TODAY INTO FRIDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH WITH PRECIP BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA
INTO SOUTHERN NEV. THE UPR LOW WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN CA NEAR THE US/MEXICO BORDER.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPR LOW WILL DRIFT OFF TOWARD THE SE TOWARD MEXICO
WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED UPR RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SW. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS DRYING OUT.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: SUN AM - WED AM)...

BY SUNDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL HAVE
DOMINATED THE PATTERN AGAIN AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAYTIME HOURS. THINGS BECOME A LITTLE MORE TRICKY AS A WARM
FRONTAL PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE NORTH COAST DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...THOUGH TO WHAT DEGREE REMAINS THE QUESTION. THE 00Z GFS IS
MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE 06Z RUN...FAVORING BRIEF MODERATE
PRECIP OVER THE SMITH BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 06Z RUN IS INDICATING
JUST LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY AM THROUGH AFTERNOON. THE 00Z EC IS
THE SPEEDIEST AND FURTHEST SOUTH...BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP DOWN TO PT
ARENA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. WENT WITH A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE 06Z GFS AND THE 00Z EC...TRENDING TOWARDS A SHALLOWER
SYSTEM FAVORING ONLY THE SMITH AND UPPER KLAMATH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MON EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DRIFTING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA
MONDAY EVENING.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT THE STORM TRACK TO REMAIN
AIMED WELL TO THE NORTH AS RIDGING AGAIN DOMINATES THE WEST THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK.


.HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

PRECIP FORECAST FOR THE COMING WEEKEND WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON
AREA RIVERS. SOME MINOR SNOWMELT IS OCCURING IN HIGH ELEVATION
BASINS WHICH IS CAUSING SOME VERY MINOR RISES.  MOST AREA RIVERS ARE
EITHER FLAT OR RECEDING.

ALL RIVER STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW MONITOR LEVELS
THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.



MORE INFORMATION ON THE CNRFC WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV

JM/DRK/JM/PF

$$





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