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000
AGUS76 KRSA 251656
HMDRSA

DDHHMM
WRKHMD

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
955 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...PRECIP CONTINUES OVER NRN CA/SRN OREGON TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...NEXT STORM EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIP TO FAR NW CA/SRN OREGON TUE-
WED...

.24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS (ENDING OCT 25 AT 500 AM PDT)...

A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH ACROSS FAR NRN AND NW CA AS WELL AS SRN
OREGON FRI MORNING, BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THOSE AREAS.  A COLD
FRONT THEN SPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NW CA AND
DOWN THE COAST TO NEAR MONTEREY BAY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  24-
HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS WERE AROUND 0.2-0.6" NEAR THE SMITH BASIN
SWD TO THE EEL BASIN, ALTHOUGH GAUGES IN THE KING RANGE PICKED UP
1.3-1.8" WITH A GOOD SLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE RANGE.  RUSSIAN/
NAPA BASIN GAUGES PICKED UP ABOUT 0.1-0.4", WHILE JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH MADE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SANTA CRUZ MTNS BY
5 AM.  A COUPLE OF GAUGES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
MANAGED TO PICK UP 0.01" BY THE 5 AM CUTOFF AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD, WITH UP TO AROUND 0.1" AND LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE HILLS JUST
WEST OF THE VALLEY.  TOTALS WERE AROUND 0.1" OR LESS IN THE VICINITY
OF LAKE SHASTA AND UPPER KLAMATH BASIN, EXCEPT 0.2-0.3" IN THE SRN
OREGON CASCADES AND FAR NRN PORTION OF THE UPPER KLAMATH.  FINALLY,
NE CA PICKED UP AROUND 0.01", WITH A COUPLE OF GAUGES PICKING UP
0.01" ALSO DOWN TOWARD LASSEN NP.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SAT AM - FRI AM)...

FIRST COLD FRONTAL BAND IS CURRENTLY BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN A
LINE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER KLAMATH BASIN SWD INTO THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY AND DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY.  OVERALL, PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
HIGHER AND TIMING A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  PRECIP
RATES HAVE BEEN MODERATE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND PRECIP
SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL COAST AND ACROSS INTO
THE NRN SIERRA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON
THE NORTH COAST, SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND MOVE TO
THE NNE FROM AROUND SHELTER COVE NWD.

THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP FROM THE INITIAL FRONT TO SPREAD
INTO THE CNTRL SIERRA AND CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
VALLEY OVER TO THE CNTRL COAST.  ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTH COAST ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF A WAVE ALOFT.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, EXPECT WINDS TO FINALLY SHIFT FROM SLY TO WLY
ALONG THE NORTH COAST, THUS PROVIDING A PERIOD OF BETTER OROGRAPHIC
FLOW FOR AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.  AS A RESULT, EXPECT PRECIP
RATES TO ENHANCE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COAST, ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE LOWER KLAMATH AND SMITH BASINS.  SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A THREAT ACROSS ALL OF NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FORCING
ALOFT AND SOME MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS NRN CA/NV THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AND
LIFT TO THE NORTH.  AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST ON
SUN, EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO DRIFT ACROSS FAR NRN NV, WHILE PARTS OF
NW CA/SRN OREGON SEE THE TYPICAL SHOWERS IN THE POST-FRONTAL NWLY
FLOW.

AS FAR AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE CONCERNED WITH THE SYSTEM TODAY AND
SUN, FREEZING LEVELS ARE GENERALLY 8500 FT ON THE NORTH COAST AND
ABOVE 10,000 FT ELSEWHERE.  TEMPS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL A BIT BEHIND
THE FRONT IN NW CA AND SRN OREGON.  FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT AROUND 5500-7000 FT IN THE NORTH AND 7500-9000 FT IN THE NRN
PORTION OF THE SIERRA BY LATE TONIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT AS WEAK
RIDGING SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  LATEST
GFS/ECMWF AGREE REASONABLY WELL REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE FAR NORTH TUE-WED.  THE MAIN FORCING REMAINS WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION, AND JUST THE FAR NW PORTION OF CA AND SRN
OREGON ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE AMOUNTS AS
THE SRN END OF THE FRONT CLIPS THE REGION.  FREEZING LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 10,000 FT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT.

MODELS DRIFT APART BEYOND MIDWEEK, WITH ALL SHOWING ANOTHER FRONT
MOVING INTO NW CA BUT WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD REGARDING TIMING.  FOR
NOW, WENT WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS/GEM AND MUCH
SLOWER ECMWF.  THIS COMPROMISE KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEYOND THE END OF THE 6-DAY FORECAST WINDOW.


.HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS
BEEN FARILY LIGHT AND HAS NOT HAD MUCH EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS.

RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO BRING RENEWED
RISES ALONG THE NORTH COAST.  ELSEWHERE SOILS REMIAN RELATIVELY DRY
AND ONLY SLIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED.

ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE CNRFC FORECAST AREA ARE CURRENTLY
BELOW...AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW MONITOR LEVELS THROUGH
MONDAY.



MORE INFORMATION ON THE CNRFC WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV

KL/PF

$$





000
AGUS76 KRSA 251656
HMDRSA

DDHHMM
WRKHMD

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
955 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...PRECIP CONTINUES OVER NRN CA/SRN OREGON TODAY AND TONIGHT...
...NEXT STORM EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIP TO FAR NW CA/SRN OREGON TUE-
WED...

.24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS (ENDING OCT 25 AT 500 AM PDT)...

A WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTH ACROSS FAR NRN AND NW CA AS WELL AS SRN
OREGON FRI MORNING, BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THOSE AREAS.  A COLD
FRONT THEN SPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NW CA AND
DOWN THE COAST TO NEAR MONTEREY BAY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  24-
HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS WERE AROUND 0.2-0.6" NEAR THE SMITH BASIN
SWD TO THE EEL BASIN, ALTHOUGH GAUGES IN THE KING RANGE PICKED UP
1.3-1.8" WITH A GOOD SLY OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE RANGE.  RUSSIAN/
NAPA BASIN GAUGES PICKED UP ABOUT 0.1-0.4", WHILE JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH MADE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SANTA CRUZ MTNS BY
5 AM.  A COUPLE OF GAUGES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
MANAGED TO PICK UP 0.01" BY THE 5 AM CUTOFF AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD, WITH UP TO AROUND 0.1" AND LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE HILLS JUST
WEST OF THE VALLEY.  TOTALS WERE AROUND 0.1" OR LESS IN THE VICINITY
OF LAKE SHASTA AND UPPER KLAMATH BASIN, EXCEPT 0.2-0.3" IN THE SRN
OREGON CASCADES AND FAR NRN PORTION OF THE UPPER KLAMATH.  FINALLY,
NE CA PICKED UP AROUND 0.01", WITH A COUPLE OF GAUGES PICKING UP
0.01" ALSO DOWN TOWARD LASSEN NP.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SAT AM - FRI AM)...

FIRST COLD FRONTAL BAND IS CURRENTLY BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN A
LINE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER KLAMATH BASIN SWD INTO THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY AND DOWN TO MONTEREY BAY.  OVERALL, PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
HIGHER AND TIMING A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  PRECIP
RATES HAVE BEEN MODERATE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND PRECIP
SHOULD FILL IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL COAST AND ACROSS INTO
THE NRN SIERRA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON
THE NORTH COAST, SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND MOVE TO
THE NNE FROM AROUND SHELTER COVE NWD.

THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT LIGHT PRECIP FROM THE INITIAL FRONT TO SPREAD
INTO THE CNTRL SIERRA AND CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
VALLEY OVER TO THE CNTRL COAST.  ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTH COAST ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF A WAVE ALOFT.
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, EXPECT WINDS TO FINALLY SHIFT FROM SLY TO WLY
ALONG THE NORTH COAST, THUS PROVIDING A PERIOD OF BETTER OROGRAPHIC
FLOW FOR AREAS NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.  AS A RESULT, EXPECT PRECIP
RATES TO ENHANCE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COAST, ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE LOWER KLAMATH AND SMITH BASINS.  SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A THREAT ACROSS ALL OF NRN CA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FORCING
ALOFT AND SOME MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS NRN CA/NV THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AND
LIFT TO THE NORTH.  AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST ON
SUN, EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO DRIFT ACROSS FAR NRN NV, WHILE PARTS OF
NW CA/SRN OREGON SEE THE TYPICAL SHOWERS IN THE POST-FRONTAL NWLY
FLOW.

AS FAR AS FREEZING LEVELS ARE CONCERNED WITH THE SYSTEM TODAY AND
SUN, FREEZING LEVELS ARE GENERALLY 8500 FT ON THE NORTH COAST AND
ABOVE 10,000 FT ELSEWHERE.  TEMPS HAVE BEGUN TO FALL A BIT BEHIND
THE FRONT IN NW CA AND SRN OREGON.  FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT AROUND 5500-7000 FT IN THE NORTH AND 7500-9000 FT IN THE NRN
PORTION OF THE SIERRA BY LATE TONIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT AS WEAK
RIDGING SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  LATEST
GFS/ECMWF AGREE REASONABLY WELL REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE FAR NORTH TUE-WED.  THE MAIN FORCING REMAINS WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION, AND JUST THE FAR NW PORTION OF CA AND SRN
OREGON ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE AMOUNTS AS
THE SRN END OF THE FRONT CLIPS THE REGION.  FREEZING LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 10,000 FT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE REGION
REMAINING ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT.

MODELS DRIFT APART BEYOND MIDWEEK, WITH ALL SHOWING ANOTHER FRONT
MOVING INTO NW CA BUT WITH PLENTY OF SPREAD REGARDING TIMING.  FOR
NOW, WENT WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS/GEM AND MUCH
SLOWER ECMWF.  THIS COMPROMISE KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM BEYOND THE END OF THE 6-DAY FORECAST WINDOW.


.HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS
BEEN FARILY LIGHT AND HAS NOT HAD MUCH EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS.

RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO BRING RENEWED
RISES ALONG THE NORTH COAST.  ELSEWHERE SOILS REMIAN RELATIVELY DRY
AND ONLY SLIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED.

ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE CNRFC FORECAST AREA ARE CURRENTLY
BELOW...AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW MONITOR LEVELS THROUGH
MONDAY.



MORE INFORMATION ON THE CNRFC WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV

KL/PF

$$





000
AGUS76 KRSA 241600
HMDRSA

DDHHMM
WRKHMD

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
900 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NRN CA/SRN OREGON THIS MORNING...
...PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS NRN CA/SRN OREGON TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...
...ADDITIONAL PRECIP EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NRN CA/SRN OREGON MON NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT

.24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS (ENDING OCT 24 AT 500 AM PDT)...

A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED THROUGH FAR NORTHERN CA...ALONG WITH
PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WAS THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP ACROSS NW CA INTO THE UPPER KLAMATH
RIVER BASIN. THE GREATEST TOTALS WERE OBSERVED FROM CAPE MENDOCINO
NE INTO THE TRINITY AND LOWER KLAMATH RIVER BASINS WITH 1.00- TO
3.00-INCHES. ELSEWHERE IN THIS BAND OF PRECIP TOTALS WERE GENERALLY
FROM 0.50- TO 1.00-INCH. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP REACHED
FROM NORTHERN SONOMA COUNTY NE ACROSS THE FEATHER RIVER BASIN AND
FAR NWRN NEVADA.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: FRI AM - MON AM)...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF CNTRL CA THIS MORNING.  THE WARM FRONTAL
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS FAR NRN CA/SRN OREGON
THIS MORNING AND BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THOSE AREAS.  AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NWD, EXPECT SHOWERS TO END BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO HELP PUSH THE COLD
FRONT QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTH COAST TONIGHT WITH ACCOMPANYING PW
VALUES AROUND 1 INCH.  H85 WINDS FROM AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO NWD ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 50-65 KTS BY LATE TONIGHT, BUT THE SLY
DIRECTION IS NOT IDEAL FOR OROGRAPHICS NORTH OF THE CAPE.  LIGHT
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COAST TONIGHT AND
SPREAD ACROSS NRN CA AND SRN OREGON SAT MORNING.  SLY WINDS IN THE
NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 30-50 KTS SAT
MORNING, LEADING TO SOME ENHANCED TOTALS AROUND LAKE SHASTA.

A SECONDARY BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONTO THE NORTH COAST SAT
AFTERNOON AS A WEAKER VORT MAX APPROACHES.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
ENHANCED PRECIP RATES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH COAST MAINLY NORTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO, WITH CONTINUED MODERATE AMOUNTS IN THE LAKE SHASTA
DRAINAGE AND INCREASING AMOUNTS IN THE NRN SIERRA AS MOIST,
OROGRAPHIC FLOW IMPROVES AND THE WAVE ALOFT APPROACHES.  EXPECT
PRECIP TO TAPER OFF SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO
THE EAST.  FAR NRN NV SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS LATE SAT
NIGHT/SUN AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

FREEZING LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO START OFF AROUND 10,000 OR ABOVE
PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.  EXPECT FREEZING LEVELS TO
FALL TO 6000-7500 FT IN THE NORTH AND 7500-9000 FT IN THE NRN SIERRA
BY LATE SAT NIGHT.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: MON AM - THU AM)...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPR RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NE TO JUST
OFF THE CA COAST AND THEN INLAND OVER THE PACNW. A COUPLE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE LOCATED WEST OF THE PACNW BETWEEN 130W AND
150W. IN THE SW FLOW BETWEEN THE UPR RIDGE AND S/WV TROFS WILL BE A
CHANNEL OF MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY NE FROM WEST OF HAWAII.

AS THE S/WV TROFS MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE PACNW...EXPECT A WARM
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH COAST AND UPPER KLAMATH RIVER BASIN
LATER MONDAY. WARM SECTOR PRECIP WILL AFFECT THESE AREAS THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY.

DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REALLY SHOW UP LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AS THE FLOW BUCKLES AND BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED...THE
24/00Z EC DEVELOPS AN UPR RIDGE ALIGNED SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN
THE 24/06Z GFS OVER THE INTERIOR. THE UPSTREAM UPR TROF ON THE EC
DIGS OUT BETWEEN 140W AND 150W...WHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WITH THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...THE GFS WANTS TO DRAG PRECIP
THROUGH NORTHERN CA ON THU WHILE THE FRONTAL BAND REMAINS OFFSHORE
ON THE EC. THERE HASN/T BEEN TOO MUCH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITHIN
THE MODEL...OR BETWEEN THE MODELS. STILL SOME TIME TO IRON OUT THE
DETAILS AS THIS FALLS AT THE END OF THE 6-DAY FORECAST PERIOD AND
OUTSIDE THE WINDOW.


.HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS
PRODUCED SOME MINOR RISES IN STAGE MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO
BRING RENEWED RISES ALONG THE NORTH COAST.  ELSEWHERE SOILS REMIAN
RELATIVELY DRY AND ONLY SLIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED.

ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE CNRFC FORECAST AREA ARE CURRENTLY
BELOW...AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW MONITOR LEVELS THROUGH
MONDAY.


MORE INFORMATION ON THE CNRFC WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV

DRK/KL/DRK/PF

$$





000
AGUS76 KRSA 231614
HMDRSA

DDHHMM
WRKHMD

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

...PRECIP TO CONTINUE TODAY OVER NORTHERN CA...
...SHORT BREAK IN PRECIP ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES
SATURDAY MORNING...

.24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS (ENDING OCT 23 AT 500 AM PDT)...

A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT HAS SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NRN CA AND SRN OREGON.  PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MAINLY LIGHT, BUT
HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED TO BE MORE MODERATE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH COAST AND AROUND THE SHASTA DRAINAGE.  TOTALS WERE AROUND 0.9-
1.8" AND LOCALLY OVER 2" IN THE SMITH BASIN WITH AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5-
1.5" IN THE LOWER KLAMATH AND MAD RIVER BASINS.  TOTALS WERE 0.1-
0.4" IN THE EEL BASIN WITH MUCH HIGHER TOTALS OF 1.2-2.4" IN THE
KING RANGE NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO.  MOVING INLAND, TOTALS WERE 0.1" OR
LESS IN THE FAR NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND 0.2-0.7" AND LOCALLY
HIGHER IN THE SHASTA DRAINAGE AND NEAR TRINITY LAKE.  UPPER KLAMATH
LOCATIONS RECEIVED AROUND 0.25" OR LESS EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 0.6" IN
THE SRN OREGON CASCADES.  NE CA AND EXTREME NW NV PICKED UP
GENERALLY 0.2" OR LESS, LOCALLY UP TO 0.4"


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: THU AM - SAT AM)...

SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT IS INTERACTING WITH A WELL
ORGANIZED MOISTURE PLUME AIMED AT THE NORTHERN CA COAST...WITH PWAT
AMOUNTS AROUND 1.3" BUTTING UP TO HUMBOLDT COUNTY. HEAVIEST PRECIP
IS CURRENTLY FALLING ALONG THE COAST FROM DEL NORTE SOUTH TO
MENDOCINO COUNTY...AND INLAND INTO THE TRINITY MTNS...UPPER
KLAMATH...AND SHASTA DRAINAGE. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW IS ALSO
BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TO ELEVATED TERRAIN AROUND CAPE
MENDOCINO.

EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...
AS WELL AS SAGGING A WEAKENING SOUTHERN EDGE INTO SONOMA AND MARIN
COUNTIES. WHILE THE STRONG UPPER JET SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIP ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT ELSEWHERE. ON
FRIDAY...PRECIP WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTH
AND THE JET TAKES A MORE S-N TRAJECTORY...MORE PARALLEL TO THE CA
COAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIP UNTIL THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW MARCHES INLAND ON SATURDAY
MORNING.

FREEZING LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
FALLING AS LOW AS 7500-FT ON THE NORTH COAST TODAY...BUT GENERALLY
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 9000-FT. AS A RESULT...THE MAJORITY OF WHAT
FALLS TODAY WILL REMAIN AS RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: SAT AM - WED AM)...

BY SAT MORNING, AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE OREGON
COAST FROM THE SW, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NRN CA/SRN OREGON
AND A 120 KT+ JET ACROSS THE NORTH COAST.  MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP
SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF NRN CA/SRN OREGON BY THIS TIME.

A SECONDARY FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONTO THE NORTH
COAST BY SAT AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BRING AN UPTICK IN PRECIP RATES
ON THE NORTH COAST FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHILE PRECIP PICKS
UP A BIT IN THE NRN SIERRA AS WELL THANKS TO A SEMI-MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE.  SAT NIGHT, THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NRN CA, WITH PRECIP BEGINNING TO WIND
DOWN NEAR THE COAST WHILE PICKING UP A BIT IN THE NRN SIERRA AND
SPREADING INTO NRN NV.  PRECIP FINALLY WINDS DOWN ON SUN AS THE
TROUGH PUSHES EAST.  FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO START OFF
AROUND 8500 FT OR ABOVE EARLY SAT AND LOWER TO 6000-7000 IN THE FAR
NORTH AND 7500-8500 FT IN THE NRN SIERRA FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BRIEF RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ON MON.
MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIP TO NW CA/SRN
OREGON/NRN NV MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT, WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP STAYING NORTH OF THE CNRFC FORECAST AREA.  FREEZING LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 8500 FT OR ABOVE.


.HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION OVER NORTWEST CALIFORNIA FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS IS
PRODUCING MINOR RISES IN STAGE ON MANY AREA RIVERS.  NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE FORECAST TO FLUCTUATE NEAR CURRENT
LEVELS FROM PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE CNRFC FORECAST AREA ARE CURRENTLY
BELOW...AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW MONITOR LEVELS THROUGH
MONDAY.

MORE INFORMATION ON THE CNRFC WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV

KL/JM/KL/SS

$$





000
AGUS76 KRSA 231614
HMDRSA

DDHHMM
WRKHMD

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

...PRECIP TO CONTINUE TODAY OVER NORTHERN CA...
...SHORT BREAK IN PRECIP ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES
SATURDAY MORNING...

.24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS (ENDING OCT 23 AT 500 AM PDT)...

A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT HAS SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NRN CA AND SRN OREGON.  PRECIP AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MAINLY LIGHT, BUT
HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED TO BE MORE MODERATE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH COAST AND AROUND THE SHASTA DRAINAGE.  TOTALS WERE AROUND 0.9-
1.8" AND LOCALLY OVER 2" IN THE SMITH BASIN WITH AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5-
1.5" IN THE LOWER KLAMATH AND MAD RIVER BASINS.  TOTALS WERE 0.1-
0.4" IN THE EEL BASIN WITH MUCH HIGHER TOTALS OF 1.2-2.4" IN THE
KING RANGE NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO.  MOVING INLAND, TOTALS WERE 0.1" OR
LESS IN THE FAR NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND 0.2-0.7" AND LOCALLY
HIGHER IN THE SHASTA DRAINAGE AND NEAR TRINITY LAKE.  UPPER KLAMATH
LOCATIONS RECEIVED AROUND 0.25" OR LESS EXCEPT LOCALLY UP TO 0.6" IN
THE SRN OREGON CASCADES.  NE CA AND EXTREME NW NV PICKED UP
GENERALLY 0.2" OR LESS, LOCALLY UP TO 0.4"


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: THU AM - SAT AM)...

SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT IS INTERACTING WITH A WELL
ORGANIZED MOISTURE PLUME AIMED AT THE NORTHERN CA COAST...WITH PWAT
AMOUNTS AROUND 1.3" BUTTING UP TO HUMBOLDT COUNTY. HEAVIEST PRECIP
IS CURRENTLY FALLING ALONG THE COAST FROM DEL NORTE SOUTH TO
MENDOCINO COUNTY...AND INLAND INTO THE TRINITY MTNS...UPPER
KLAMATH...AND SHASTA DRAINAGE. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW IS ALSO
BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TO ELEVATED TERRAIN AROUND CAPE
MENDOCINO.

EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...
AS WELL AS SAGGING A WEAKENING SOUTHERN EDGE INTO SONOMA AND MARIN
COUNTIES. WHILE THE STRONG UPPER JET SHOULD KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIP ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT ELSEWHERE. ON
FRIDAY...PRECIP WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTH
AND THE JET TAKES A MORE S-N TRAJECTORY...MORE PARALLEL TO THE CA
COAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIP UNTIL THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW MARCHES INLAND ON SATURDAY
MORNING.

FREEZING LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
FALLING AS LOW AS 7500-FT ON THE NORTH COAST TODAY...BUT GENERALLY
REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 9000-FT. AS A RESULT...THE MAJORITY OF WHAT
FALLS TODAY WILL REMAIN AS RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: SAT AM - WED AM)...

BY SAT MORNING, AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE OREGON
COAST FROM THE SW, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NRN CA/SRN OREGON
AND A 120 KT+ JET ACROSS THE NORTH COAST.  MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP
SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF NRN CA/SRN OREGON BY THIS TIME.

A SECONDARY FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONTO THE NORTH
COAST BY SAT AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BRING AN UPTICK IN PRECIP RATES
ON THE NORTH COAST FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHILE PRECIP PICKS
UP A BIT IN THE NRN SIERRA AS WELL THANKS TO A SEMI-MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE.  SAT NIGHT, THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NRN CA, WITH PRECIP BEGINNING TO WIND
DOWN NEAR THE COAST WHILE PICKING UP A BIT IN THE NRN SIERRA AND
SPREADING INTO NRN NV.  PRECIP FINALLY WINDS DOWN ON SUN AS THE
TROUGH PUSHES EAST.  FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO START OFF
AROUND 8500 FT OR ABOVE EARLY SAT AND LOWER TO 6000-7000 IN THE FAR
NORTH AND 7500-8500 FT IN THE NRN SIERRA FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BRIEF RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION ON MON.
MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIP TO NW CA/SRN
OREGON/NRN NV MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT, WITH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP STAYING NORTH OF THE CNRFC FORECAST AREA.  FREEZING LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 8500 FT OR ABOVE.


.HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION OVER NORTWEST CALIFORNIA FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS IS
PRODUCING MINOR RISES IN STAGE ON MANY AREA RIVERS.  NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE FORECAST TO FLUCTUATE NEAR CURRENT
LEVELS FROM PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE CNRFC FORECAST AREA ARE CURRENTLY
BELOW...AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW MONITOR LEVELS THROUGH
MONDAY.

MORE INFORMATION ON THE CNRFC WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV

KL/JM/KL/SS

$$





000
AGUS76 KRSA 222050 CCA
HMDRSA

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

...PRECIP EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN CA TODAY AND THURSDAY...
...SECOND SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...

.24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS (ENDING OCT 22 AT 500 AM PDT)...

A PAIR OF DISTURBANCES BROUGHT LIGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF NRN CA,
SRN OREGON, AND NRN NV.  AMOUNTS WERE 0.25" OR LESS ON THE FAR NORTH
COAST AND JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS ACROSS THE SHASTA DRAINAGE,
NRN SIERRA THROUGH SRN OREGON, AND IN NRN NV.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: WED AM - FRI PM)...

UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS BROUGHT A STRONG COLD
FRONT TO THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTLINE THIS MORNING. THE UPPER
JET WILL GRADUALLY SLINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...BRINGING
INCREASING PRECIP TO THE NORTH COAST BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG FETCH MOISTURE PLUME CAN BE SEEN REACHING BACK TO NORTH OF
HAWAII...BRINGING NEARLY 1" PWAT VALUES TO THE NORTH COAST SO FAR
TODAY. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP REMAINING TO THE NORTH OVER THE OREGON COAST. DO
STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TO FALL
OVER THE SMITH BASIN LATE TONIGHT...BUT WEAKEN TO JUST MODERATE AS
THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 22/12Z NAM IS THE
OUTLIER WITH HOLDING THE FRONT TOGETHER STRONGLY AS IT MOVES INTO
THE RUSSIAN AND EEL R BASINS...AND INLAND INTO THE SHASTA DRAINAGE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION THAT BRINGS LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP TO THOSE AREAS DURING THAT TIME FRAME IS MORE
REASONABLE.

EXPECT SOME CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE GOA LOW
DEEPENS INTO A TROUGH. TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO CENTER AROUND 135W
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG UPPER JET JUST AHEAD PULLING A
1.1" PWAT PLUME ALONG WITH IT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE COASTLINE.
FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO THE NORTH
COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: FRI PM - TUE AM)...

MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE LATE-WEEK SYSTEM COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY MORNING`S RUNS.  MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO LOCK ONTO
THE DETAILS.  ECMWF/GEM SHOWED REASONABLE AGREEMENT, AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC SOLNS WERE REASONABLY SIMILAR, SO
UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEM AS THE STARTING POINT IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE.  A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NE TOWARD THE PAC NW FRI/SAT.  WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT, EXPECT
THE FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIP TO PUSH QUICKLY ONTO THE NORTH COAST FRI
NIGHT AND ACROSS NRN CA AND SRN OREGON ON SAT.  HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE NORTH COAST NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO AND NWD WHERE
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL HELP ENHANCE TOTALS.  LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE SRN SIERRA AND THE TRANSVERSE RANGES OF
SRN CA SAT NIGHT AS A VORT MAX SWINGS ACROSS CA.  SHOWERS CONTINUE
IN NRN CA/SRN OREGON AND MOVE INTO NRN NV SAT INTO SUN BEFORE THE
TROUGH EXITS AND DRYING RETURNS.  FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO
START OFF AROUND 10,000 FT OR ABOVE ON FRI AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND LOWER TO 6000-7000 IN THE FAR NORTH AND 7500-8500 FT IN THE NRN
AND CNTRL SIERRA FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE.


.HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

RIVERS AND STREAMS IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA ARE RECEDING...OR REMAIN
STEADY THIS MORNING AFTER RISING IN STAGE YESTERDAY MORNING FROM
PRECIPIATION THAT FELL ON MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RENEWED...MINOR RISES IN STAGE ON MANY AREA
RIVERS BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING.

ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE CNRFC FORECAST AREA ARE CURRENTLY
BELOW...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MONITOR LEVELS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

MORE INFORMATION ON THE CNRFC WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV

KL/JM/KL/SS

$$





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