Home > Products > Valid Products > HMD

000
AGUS76 KRSA 311511
HMDRSA

- KRNO 311448
WRKHMD

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS TO BRING LIGHT PRECIP TO PARTS OF NRN
CA/NV AND SRN OREGON NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OTHERWISE DRY...

.24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS (ENDING MAR 31 AT 500 AM PDT)...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING ONSHORE. AMOUNTS WHERE GENERALLY
AROUND A QUARTER INCH ACROSS HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: TUE AM - FRI AM)...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS NRN CA/SRN OREGON THIS MORNING, WITH
SOME LIGHT POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS NW CA INTO SRN OREGON
AHEAD OF A VORT MAX EXPECTED TO CLIP THE REGION TODAY.  SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS NRN CA/SRN OREGON THROUGH INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN PUSH INTO FAR NRN NV IN THE EVENING.  ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED SPREAD PRECIP INTO SIMILAR AREAS AGAIN ON WED, WITH
PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NRN SIERRA AS WELL AND EVENTUALLY
INTO ERN NV AS WELL.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY THE THU
NIGHT.  EXPECT FREEZING LEVELS 5000-7000 FT.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (LONG TERM: FRI AM - MON AM)...

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF BC. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS NORCAL
ON FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP SNEAKING
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, HAVE
FOLLOWED GUIDANCE FROM THE 30/00Z EC AND GFS AND KEPT THE AREA DRY
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH JUST OFF THE BC COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MODELS HAVE THE LOW CENTERED
JUST OFF THE COAST NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. MODELS THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE THE LOW MORE EASTERLY AS IT CONTINUES TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARD THE AREA. THIS MODEL SOLUTION HAS CHANGED QUITE A BIT SINCE
YESTERDAY WITH REGARDS TO THE EC, WHERE IT HAD THE LOW DROPPING
SOUTH ALONG 130W TO NEAR THE BAY AREA BEFORE MOVING EAST. THE GFS
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS IN PASSING MOST OF
THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHERE THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WILL BE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS LOW, BUT STILL EXPECTING SOMEWHAT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS NORCAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR.


.HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

OTHER THAN MINOR SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTING TO SOME HIGH ELEVATION RIVER
AND STREAM RISES, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE SEASONALLY BELOW
NORMAL RIVER FLOWS ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.  COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE MINOR
SNOWMELT RISES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ALL STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL BELOW MONITOR LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK.

MORE INFORMATION ON THE CNRFC WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV

MI/KL/MI/AM

$$





000
AGUS76 KRSA 301530
HMDRSA

ZCZC RNOWRKHMD 301527
TTAA00 KRNO DDHHMM

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

...A FEW WEAK TROUGHS WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COAST
AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN NV THIS WEEK...

.24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS (ENDING MAR 30 AT 500 AM PDT)...

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE OBSERVED ALONG AND NEAR THE CREST OF
THE SIERRA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA. PRECIP WAS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS BENEATH INDIVIDUAL CELLS. MUCH OF THE RAIN MISSED THE GAGE
NETWORK IN THE SIERRA


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (MON AM - SUN AM)...

SATELLITE SHOWING A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 140W. THIS TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE SMITH AND KLAMATH BASINS... PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
EEL BASIN. MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS WELL TO THE NORTH, SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT ACROSS NORCAL.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH DOWN THE COASTLINE AND BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIP TO BASINS ALONG THE COAST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN NV WITH
THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NV
INTO THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY MORNING... THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WITH MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS
POINT. THE EC DROPS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA, KEEPING THE CENTER OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS CA.
THIS SCENARIO BRINGS LIGHT RAIN TO THE CA NORTH COAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND
SIERRA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD BE A WELCOME PATTERN CHANGE
IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. MEANWHILE, THE GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM
MOVING ONSHORE WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS
PATTERN LEAVES CA COMPLETELY DRY. HAVE GONE WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
EC AT THIS TIME FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY/EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COAST.


.HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

LITTLE CHANGE IN RIVER LEVELS ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.  ALL
STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW MONITOR LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEK.

MORE INFORMATION ON THE CNRFC WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV

MI/AM

$$





000
AGUS76 KRSA 301530
HMDRSA

ZCZC RNOWRKHMD 301527
TTAA00 KRNO DDHHMM

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PDT MON MAR 30 2015

...A FEW WEAK TROUGHS WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COAST
AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN NV THIS WEEK...

.24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS (ENDING MAR 30 AT 500 AM PDT)...

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE OBSERVED ALONG AND NEAR THE CREST OF
THE SIERRA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA. PRECIP WAS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS BENEATH INDIVIDUAL CELLS. MUCH OF THE RAIN MISSED THE GAGE
NETWORK IN THE SIERRA


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (MON AM - SUN AM)...

SATELLITE SHOWING A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 140W. THIS TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE COAST EARLY TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE SMITH AND KLAMATH BASINS... PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
EEL BASIN. MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
PASS WELL TO THE NORTH, SO QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT ACROSS NORCAL.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA ON EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH DOWN THE COASTLINE AND BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF
LIGHT PRECIP TO BASINS ALONG THE COAST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN NV WITH
THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN NV
INTO THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY MORNING... THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WITH MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS
POINT. THE EC DROPS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA, KEEPING THE CENTER OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS CA.
THIS SCENARIO BRINGS LIGHT RAIN TO THE CA NORTH COAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND
SIERRA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD BE A WELCOME PATTERN CHANGE
IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. MEANWHILE, THE GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM
MOVING ONSHORE WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS
PATTERN LEAVES CA COMPLETELY DRY. HAVE GONE WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
EC AT THIS TIME FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY/EARLY
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTH COAST.


.HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

LITTLE CHANGE IN RIVER LEVELS ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS.  ALL
STAGES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW MONITOR LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEK.

MORE INFORMATION ON THE CNRFC WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV

MI/AM

$$





000
AGUS76 KRSA 291810
HMDRSA

ZCZC RNOWRKHMD 291805
TTAA00 KRNO DDHHMM

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY...

.24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS (ENDING MAR 29 AT 500 AM PDT)...

NO PRECIP FELL OVER THE LAST 24-HRS WITH THE REGION UNDER A DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SUN AM - SAT AM)...

SATELLITE SHOWS A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH A WEAK S/WV PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL CA AND INTO
NEVADA BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE`S STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME WEAK
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SIERRA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE S/WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT AT THIS TIME IT`S LOOKING
LIKE IT`LL JUST BE SOME CU THAT DEVELOP AND NO PRECIP.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN
OVER WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON...THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO CLIP THE NORTH COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING. LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE IS EXPECTED MAINLY FROM EARLY
TUES AM THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING INLAND AND
WEAKENING. PRECIP SHOULD STICK TO THE SMITH AND UPPER KLAMATH
BASINS...BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE EEL
AND INLAND TOWARDS THE SHASTA DRAINAGE.

A SECOND...WEAKER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THIS
FIRST. THE EC HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN TRYING TO PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA WITH THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT THE LATEST 00Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF OF THAT SOLUTION AND HEDGED
MORE TOWARDS THE CONSISTENTLY FURTHER NORTH GFS PATTERN. NUDGED THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN BEFORE. THE
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT AND PRODUCE SOME GUSTY N
TO NE WINDS OVERNIGHT...SWEEP SOME PRECIP THROUGH NV EARLY THURS...
THEN LEAVE THE REGION DRY IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY.


.HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SNOWMELT RUNOFF IN SIERRA NEVADA BASINS WITH SNOW. RISES
IN STAGE IN THESE RIVER BASINS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY MINOR.

ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE CNRFC FORECAST AREA ARE CURRENTLY
BELOW ...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MONITOR LEVELS THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY.



MORE INFORMATION ON THE CNRFC WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV

JM/SS

$$





000
AGUS76 KRSA 291810
HMDRSA

ZCZC RNOWRKHMD 291805
TTAA00 KRNO DDHHMM

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

...SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY...

.24 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS (ENDING MAR 29 AT 500 AM PDT)...

NO PRECIP FELL OVER THE LAST 24-HRS WITH THE REGION UNDER A DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN.


.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SUN AM - SAT AM)...

SATELLITE SHOWS A GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH A WEAK S/WV PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL CA AND INTO
NEVADA BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE`S STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME WEAK
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SIERRA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE S/WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT AT THIS TIME IT`S LOOKING
LIKE IT`LL JUST BE SOME CU THAT DEVELOP AND NO PRECIP.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN
OVER WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON...THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO CLIP THE NORTH COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING. LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE IS EXPECTED MAINLY FROM EARLY
TUES AM THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING INLAND AND
WEAKENING. PRECIP SHOULD STICK TO THE SMITH AND UPPER KLAMATH
BASINS...BUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE EEL
AND INLAND TOWARDS THE SHASTA DRAINAGE.

A SECOND...WEAKER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THIS
FIRST. THE EC HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN TRYING TO PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA WITH THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT THE LATEST 00Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF OF THAT SOLUTION AND HEDGED
MORE TOWARDS THE CONSISTENTLY FURTHER NORTH GFS PATTERN. NUDGED THE
FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN BEFORE. THE
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT AND PRODUCE SOME GUSTY N
TO NE WINDS OVERNIGHT...SWEEP SOME PRECIP THROUGH NV EARLY THURS...
THEN LEAVE THE REGION DRY IN ITS WAKE ON FRIDAY.


.HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...

WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SNOWMELT RUNOFF IN SIERRA NEVADA BASINS WITH SNOW. RISES
IN STAGE IN THESE RIVER BASINS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY MINOR.

ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE CNRFC FORECAST AREA ARE CURRENTLY
BELOW ...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW MONITOR LEVELS THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY.



MORE INFORMATION ON THE CNRFC WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV

JM/SS

$$





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities