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000
AGUS71 KTAR 291525
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1121 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z ( 10 AM EDT ) SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NEAR BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS WEST TO THE EASTERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWEST AS A BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WHILE THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT MOVES LITTLE ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE. FORCING FOR RAINFALL REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE COLD
FRONT TODAY SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MAINE.
:
BY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TO COASTAL EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
:
ALL TOLD...BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS APPROACHING OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEEDING 0.25 INCHES ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MAINE AND OVER
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE. MOST OF VERMONT
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
RIVER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST REGION.  THE FORECAST RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NOTICEABLE RISES, BUT MAY SLOW
THE RECESSIONS A LITTLE.
:
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATER WATCH WEBPAGE, 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHEAST REGION ARE RUNNING AT
NORMAL TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  HOWEVER,
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK, SOME RIVER
FLOWS ARE REPORTING AT NEAR RECORD LOW LEVELS FOR THIS POINT IN
THE YEAR.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       RON HORWOOD
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                JEANE WALLACE






000
AGUS71 KTAR 291427
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1023 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z ( 10 AM EDT ) SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NEAR BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS WEST TO THE EASTERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE EASTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWEST AS A BACKDOOR FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WHILE THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT MOVES LITTLE ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE. FORCING FOR RAINFALL REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE COLD
FRONT TODAY SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MAINE.
:
BY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE TO COASTAL EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
:
ALL TOLD...BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS APPROACHING OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEEDING 0.25 INCHES ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MAINE AND OVER
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE. MOST OF VERMONT
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       RON HORWOOD
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                JEANE WALLACE






000
AGUS71 KTAR 281523
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1122 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z ( 10 AM EDT ) SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 1024 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC PROVINCE CANADA TO DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE BY MONDAY MORNING.
:
MOST OF THE FORCING FOR RAINFALL IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SO OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE BASIN AVERAGES COULD BE NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE 0.25 INCHES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SOME LIGHTER RAIN COULD OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
WIND FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AND ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT FOR THE MOST PART...DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A GOOD DEAL OF THE NERFC SERVICE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
:
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS WILL LIKELY NOT COME
UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
RIVERS ARE PRESENTLY RECEDING OR HOLDING AT STEADY LEVELS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST REGION.  THE FORECAST RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN MAINE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO DISRUPT THIS TREND, BUT MAY TEMPORARILY KEEP
OTHERWISE RECEDING STREAMS AT STEADY LEVELS FOR A DAY OR TWO.
:
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATER WATCH WEBPAGE, 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHEAST REGION ARE RUNNING AT
NORMAL TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.  HOWEVER,
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK, SOME RIVER
FLOWS ARE REPORTING AT VERY LOW LEVELS.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       RON HORWOOD
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                BILL SAUNDERS






000
AGUS71 KTAR 281420
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1017 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

*** UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ACROSS NERFC SERVICE AREA ***
*** SOME RAIN FOR NORTHERN MAINE NEXT 48 HOURS ***

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z ( 10 AM EDT ) SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 1024 MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC PROVINCE CANADA TO DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE BY MONDAY MORNING.
:
MOST OF THE FORCING FOR RAINFALL IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SO OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WHERE BASIN AVERAGES COULD BE NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE 0.25 INCHES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SOME LIGHTER RAIN COULD OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AS THE
WIND FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AND ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT FOR THE MOST PART...DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A GOOD DEAL OF THE NERFC SERVICE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
:
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT STORMINESS WILL LIKELY NOT COME
UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES.
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       RON HORWOOD
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                BILL SAUNDERS






000
AGUS71 KTAR 271514
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1113 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
13Z ( 9 AM EDT ) SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BUT RIDGING EAST INTO ALL
OF NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS HIGH COMBINED WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL HELP BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO
THE SEVEN STATE REGION OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR OR IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
INTERIOR NEW YORK STATE AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WITH 70S EVEN
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE.
:
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL ENTER NORTHERN MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWEST AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN MAINE BY MONDAY AND IT WILL TURN
INTO A COLD RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY ONLY IN THE 40S ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE WHERE BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL OF 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES
MAY OCCUR BY TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY MILD EXCEPT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WHERE EAST
WINDS WILL CHILL IT OFF BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
RISES ON AREA RIVERS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WERE CONFINED TO FAR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AND WERE WELL UNDER HALF A FOOT. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE NERFC FORECAST AREA, RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY RECEDE.
:
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP,
AS LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
:
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATER WATCH WEBPAGE, 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHEAST REGION ARE RUNNING AT
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER
, ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK, RIVER FLOWS
ARE MOSTLY BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       RON HORWOOD
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                JEANE WALLACE






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