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000
AGUS71 KTAR 221626
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1223 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BROUGHT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK
AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 0.10 TO 1.00 INCH ACROSS THESE
AREAS WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER POINT TOTALS NOTED PARTICULARLY
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE SOUTHERN VERMONT AND SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.
:
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST OF NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND...ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY ALONG WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY CAUSED BY SURFACE HEATING
WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS MOISTURE DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.
:
48 HOUR BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM 0.25 INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER POINT TOTALS UP TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
:
TOP TEN POINT PRECIPITATION TOTALS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...
:
LOCATION                         AMOUNT IN INCHES
:
DANBURY 2.2 ESE NEW HAMPSHIRE         2.08
SALISBURY NEW HAMPSHIRE               1.96
WESTMORELAND NEW YORK                 1.89
PORT JERVIS NEW YORK                  1.88
MASCOMA NEW HAMPSHIRE                 1.63
CONCORD 3.8 SSE NEW HAMPSHIRE         1.63
LANDGROVE VERMONT                     1.55
MANCHESTER NEW HAMPSHIRE              1.53
STARK FALLS RESERVOIR NEW YORK        1.52
VERNON 0.4 NNW NEW YORK               1.51
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
MINOR ADDITIONAL RIVER RISES OF A FOOT OR LESS ARE FORECAST WITH
THE RAINFALL ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MANY RIVER
LEVELS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE FORECAST TO RECEDE.
:
SHOWERS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS YESTERDAY AND EARLY THIS
MORNING RESULTED IN MINOR TO SMALL RISING RIVER RESPONSES OF 3 FT
OR LESS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. SUCH RISING RESPONSES WERE
UNDERWAY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT FOR MANY RIVER FORECAST
LOCATIONS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE, VERMONT, NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. RIVER LEVELS GENERALLY CONTINUED TO DECLINE
OR HOLD NEARLY STEADY AT FORECAST LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK STATE, CONNECTICUT AND MAINE AND FOR BASINS WHERE NEGLIGIBLE
RAINFALL OCCURRED.
:
FROM THE USGS WATERWATCH WEB PAGE, 7-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS
COMPARED WITH HISTORICALLY RECORDED FLOWS FOR YESTERDAY, 8/21 ARE
GENERALLY NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS OF NEW YORK STATE AND
NEW ENGLAND. ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE,
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND ARE
REPORTING FLOWS BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       NEAL STRAUSS
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                ERICK BOEHMLER






000
AGUS71 KTAR 211623
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1222 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVED ACROSS UPSTATE
NEW YORK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THIS REGION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. BASIN AVERAGE TOTALS
GENERALLY RANGED FROM 0.10 TO 1.00 INCH WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
SOME HIGHER POINT TOTALS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WERE NOTED.
:
LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY HEAD EAST THEN WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW
PRESSURE REFORMS TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEEKEND.
:
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
:
48 HOUR BASIN AVERAGE FORECAST AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE
FROM 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
NIL TO LESS THAN 0.25 INCH AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
:
TOP TEN POINT PRECIPITATION TOTALS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...
:
LOCATION                      AMOUNT
:
MECKLENBURG NEW YORK           3.90
INLET NEW YORK                 2.31
NEWCOMB NEW YORK               2.30
PATTERSONVILLE NEW YORK        2.26
THERESA 2.8 S NEW YORK         2.23
BALLSTON SPA 4.7 WNW NEW YORK  2.23
GLOVERSVILLE NEW YORK          2.19
PLAINFIELD CENTER NEW YORK     2.15
UNADILLA NEW YORK              2.14
DUANESBURG NEW YORK            2.06
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
DESPITE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY...RIVER
LEVELS SHOWED MOSTLY MINOR RISES. RISES AT NERFC FORECAST POINTS
WERE ON THE ORDER OF 2 FEET OR LESS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
RISES OF LESS THAN A FOOT. FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO POWER GENERATION...
RESERVOIR REGULATION...AND TIDAL VARIATION WERE OBSERVED.
:
MINOR ADDITIONAL RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE RAINFALL
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
:
7-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS...AS SHOWN ON THE USGS WATERWATCH
WEBPAGE...ARE GENERALLY NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
NERFC REGION. A FEW LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ARE FLOWING BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL LEVELS.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       NEAL STRAUSS
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                JEFF OUELLET






000
AGUS71 KTAR 201609
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1208 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL EPISODES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS PRIMARILY ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AND FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS.
:
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES IS FORECAST ACROSS
MOST OF NEW YORK STATE WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 1.50
INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY.
RAINFALL OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES WILL EXTEND EAST OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 8
AM FRIDAY.
:
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
RIVER LEVELS WERE GENERALLY STEADY OR FALLING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO
POWER GENERATION...RESERVOIR REGULATION...AND TIDAL VARIATION WERE
OBSERVED.
:
MINOR RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE RAINFALL FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THE LARGEST RISES...GENERALLY TWO FEET OR LESS.
..ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
:
7-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS...AS SHOWN ON THE USGS WATERWATCH
WEBPAGE...ARE GENERALLY NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
NERFC REGION. A FEW LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND ARE FLOWING AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID-AUGUST.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       DAVID VALLEE
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                JEFF OUELLET






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