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000
AGUS71 KTAR 311544
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1142 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE IN CANADA
LATE THIS SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
STATE OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 24 HOUR BASIN
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH 8 AM THIS SUNDAY MORNING
GENERALLY RANGED FROM 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH ACROSS THESE AREAS.
:
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND MONDAY.
MEANWHILE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION.
:
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.
:
48 HOUR BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0
.25 TO 1.00 INCH...EXCEPT LESS THAN 0.25 INCH IS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. THERE WILL BE POCKETS
OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 PLUS INCHES PRIMARILY FROM
THE CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK TO THE BERKSHIRES OF WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
OF VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE AND IN SOUTHERN MAINE.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
RIVER FLOWS ACROSS THE SEVEN STATE REGION OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEW
YORK STATE ARE RUNNING ON AVERAGE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE END OF AUGUST EXCEPT ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND WHERE THEY AVERAGE BELOW TO IN SOME CASES
MUCH BELOW NORMAL. RIVER FLOWS ARE LOWEST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT WHERE
MANY GAUGED RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE PASSING FLOWS IN THE LOWEST 10
PERCENT OF THE HISTORICAL RECORD FOR AUGUST 31ST.
:
RAINFALL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
MINOR RISES ALONG RIVERS IN NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND. RISES
COULD POSSIBLY BE A LITTLE GREATER OVER SOME OF THE FLASHY
HEADWATER AND URBANIZED RIVER BASINS IF THEY ARE DIRECTLY IMPACTED
BY HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL. NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       NEAL STRAUSS
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                DAVID VALLEE






000
AGUS71 KTAR 311451
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1051 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE IN CANADA
LATE THIS SUNDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
STATE OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 24 HOUR BASIN
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH 8 AM THIS SUNDAY MORNING
GENERALLY RANGED FROM 0.10 TO 0.50 INCH ACROSS THESE AREAS.
:
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LEADING EDGE OF WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND MONDAY.
MEANWHILE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION.
:
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.
:
48 HOUR BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0
.25 TO 1.00 INCH...EXCEPT LESS THAN 0.25 INCH IS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. THERE WILL BE POCKETS
OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 PLUS INCHES PRIMARILY FROM
THE CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK TO THE BERKSHIRES OF WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
OF VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE AND IN SOUTHERN MAINE.
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       NEAL STRAUSS
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                DAVID VALLEE






000
AGUS71 KTAR 301608
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1206 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE THIS
SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS ENTERING LAKE
MICHIGAN.
:
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUNDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY TRACK ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND THEN STALL BY MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE REGION.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE FOCUS AREA WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT.
:
48 HOUR BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH. HOWEVER
LOCALLY HIGHER POINT TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
RIVER FLOWS ACROSS THE SEVEN STATE REGION OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEW
YORK STATE ARE RUNNING ON AVERAGE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE END OF AUGUST EXCEPT ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND WHERE THEY AVERAGE BELOW TO IN SOME CASES
MUCH BELOW NORMAL. RIVER FLOWS ARE LOWEST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT WHERE
MANY GAUGED RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE PASSING FLOWS IN THE LOWEST 10
PERCENT OF THE HISTORICAL RECORD FOR 30 AUGUST. IN FACT...THE
PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON RHODE ISLAND WAS REPORTING A RECORD LOW
FLOW FOR TODAY WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE SINCE RECORDS GO BACK 74
YEARS.
:
RAINFALL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
MINOR RISES ALONG RIVERS IN NEW YORK STATE AND INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND. RISES COULD POSSIBLY BE A LITTLE GREATER OVER SOME OF OUR
FLASHY HEADWATER RIVERS IF THEY ARE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL. NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       NEAL STRAUSS
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                RON HORWOOD






000
AGUS71 KTAR 301501
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1101 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE THIS
SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WAS ENTERING LAKE
MICHIGAN.
:
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON SUNDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY TRACK ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND THEN STALL BY MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE REGION.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE FOCUS AREA WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT.
:
48 HOUR BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH. HOWEVER
LOCALLY HIGHER POINT TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       NEAL STRAUSS
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                RON HORWOOD






000
AGUS71 KTAR 291544
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1134 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE
ON THURSDAY. 24 HOUR BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY VERY
LIGHT...NIL TO LESS THAN 0.05 INCH ACROSS THIS REGION.
:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN MAINE
LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY.
:
48 HOUR BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION TOTALS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY RANGE FROM 0.05 TO 0.25 INCH ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHERN MAINE. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER POINT TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE
.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
RAINFALL FORECASTS OF LESS THAN 0.25 INCH PRODUCE NEGLIGIBLE RIVER
LEVEL RESPONSE IN FORECASTS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INSTEAD
RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE OR REMAIN NEARLY STEADY FOR
MOST IF NOT ALL FORECAST LOCATIONS. WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
INTERSECT SMALL STREAMS AND HEADWATER BASIN AREAS, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO SMALL RISING RESPONSES.
:
GENERALLY VERY LIGHT RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN MAINE YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS NOT ENOUGH TO RESULT IN RISING RIVER
RESPONSES. RIVERS AT FORECAST LOCATIONS CONTINUED TO DECLINE OR
HOLD NEARLY STEADY YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN RIVER
LEVELS AS MUCH AS SEVERAL FEET AT SOME FORECAST LOCATIONS RESULT
FROM POWER GENERATION, RESERVOIR REGULATION AND/OR TIDAL INFLUENCE
.
:
FROM THE USGS WATERWATCH WEB PAGE, 7-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS
RELATIVE TO HISTORICAL STREAMFLOWS FOR YESTERDAY, 8/28 GENERALLY
ARE WITHIN THE NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL CATEGORIES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND. BELOW NORMAL FLOWS
EXIST FOR A FEW LOCATIONS IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE,
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS, CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       NEAL STRAUSS
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                ERICK BOEHMLER






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