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000
AGUS71 KTAR 231632
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1230 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z( 10 AM EDT ) MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES A POWERFUL COASTAL
STORM REMAINS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. A HEAVY BAND OF RAINFALL IS
PRESSING WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN NH/VT AND CENTRAL/
WESTERN MA. THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A
NICE CAPTURING OF THE DEEP OFFSHORE MOISTURE PLUME AND WRAPPING IT
INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
:
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CONDUIT
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS ON EASTERN/COASTAL MAINE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THESE
HEAVY BANDS WILL EXCEED 2 INCHES.
:
IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE MAIN PLUME OF WATER PRODUCED 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF MASSACHUSETTS (EXCLUDING THE CAPE)
WITH BLUE HILL IN MILTON, MA. REPORTING 5.04 INCHES. THIS HEAVY
RAIN BAND EXTENDED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NH/VT WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES
WAS REPORTED.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS TAPERED OFF QUICKLY FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
:
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY TRACK FROM SOUTH OF CAPE COD, MASSACHUSETTS NORTHEASTWARD
THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF
MASSACHUSETTS. THE NORTH NASHUA RIVER AT FITCHBURG, MA AND THE
HOOSIC RIVER AT WILLIAMSTOWN, MA FORECAST LOCATIONS ARE PROJECTED
TO EXCEED FLOOD LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON.
:
MOST FORECASTS FOR RISING RIVER RESPONSES REMAIN BELOW BANK-FULL
LEVELS IN THE NERFC REGION. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION
AND RUNOFF MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR RIVER LEVELS OF RAPIDLY
RESPONDING HEADWATER AND SMALLER TRIBUTARY RIVERS TO EXCEED MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS AT A FORECAST LOCATION OR TWO THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE CASE FOR SUCH BASINS IN
PORTIONS OF MAINE INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE SWIFT RIVER AT
ROXBURY, ME AND PISCATAQUIS RIVER AT DOVER-FOXCROFT, ME FORECAST
LOCATIONS.
:
GENERALLY, SMALL RISING RESPONSES ARE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND THE HUDSON VALLEY ABOVE
ALBANY, NY. OTHER RIVERS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY WILL CONTINUE
TO RECEDE.
:
THERE WERE CONSIDERABLE RIVER RESPONSES ACROSS MUCH OF
MASSACHUSETTS PREDOMINANTLY OVERNIGHT WHERE DAILY RAINFALL TOTALS
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 1.5 TO 3 INCHES RANGE AND APPROACHED 5
INCHES LOCALLY. HOWEVER, THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS HAD
AMONG THE DRIEST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND RESPONSES AT MANY
FORECAST LOCATIONS THERE WERE DAMPENED. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS, RIVER LEVELS TRENDED LOWER OR
BEGAN RISING RESPONSES WITH THE DEVELOPING RAINFALL.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       ED CAPONE
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                ERICK BOEHMLER






000
AGUS71 KTAR 231613
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1212 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z( 10 AM EDT ) MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES A POWERFUL COASTAL
STORM REMAINS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET THIS EVENING. A HEAVY BAND OF RAINFALL IS
PRESSING WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHERN NH/VT AND CENTRAL/
WESTERN MA. THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A
NICE CAPTURING OF THE DEEP OFFSHORE MOISTURE PLUME AND WRAPPING IT
INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
:
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CONDUIT
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS ON EASTERN/COASTAL MAINE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THESE
HEAVY BANDS WILL EXCEED 2 INCHES.
:
IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE MAIN PLUME OF WATER PRODUCED 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF MASSACHUSETTS (EXCLUDING THE CAPE)
WITH BLUE HILL IN MILTON, MA. REPORTING 5.04 INCHES. THIS HEAVY
RAIN BAND EXTENDED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NH/VT WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES
WAS REPORTED.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS TAPERED OFF QUICKLY FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
:
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       ED CAPONE
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                ERICK BOEHMLER






000
AGUS71 KTAR 221607
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1205 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z( 10 AM EDT ) MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS...UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL CUTOFF CAUSING THE STORM TO MEANDER/HEAD NORTHEAST
INTO FRIDAY NEAR OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
:
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST
ATLANTIC INFLOW AND MOIST CONVEYOR BELT TARGETING AREAS FROM
NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MAINE AND
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH 8 AM EDT FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS THIS AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
:
NERFC METEOROLOGISTS AND HYDROLOGISTS ARE MONITORING THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY SINCE RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
:
RAINFALL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS HEAVIEST IN COASTAL SOUTHERN
MAINE WHERE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES WAS COMMON (PORTLAND RECEIVED 1.90
INCHES)  THIS HEAVY RAINFALL AREA IS NEARLY THE SAME AREA WHERE WE
EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 24 TO 72 HOURS.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND WILL INTENSIFY
DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS ARE WETTER
THAN EARLIER IN THE MONTH WITH RECENT RAINFALL LATE LAST WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BASINS
RECEIVED UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT ADDING TO THE
WETTER CONDITIONS. FURTHER, EVAPO- TRANSPIRATION CONTINUES TO
DECLINE WITH THE LOSS OF LEAF COVER.
:
THE GREATEST FORECAST RISING RIVER RESPONSES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
FORECAST LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN MAINE, MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH TOMORROW. RISING RIVER RESPONSES ARE MORE LIKELY TO EXCEED
THE RECENT RISES LAST WEEKEND WITH THE ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION
AND THE INCREASED RUNOFF.
:
MOST RISING RIVER RESPONSES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW BANK-FULL
LEVELS IN THE NERFC REGION. HOWEVER, THE PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR RIVER LEVELS OF RAPIDLY RESPONDING
HEADWATER AND SMALLER TRIBUTARY RIVERS TO EXCEED MINOR FLOOD
LEVELS AT AN ISOLATED RIVER FORECAST LOCATION OR TWO, PARTICULARLY
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO
FORECAST LOCATIONS FOR THE PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AT WOODSTOCK, NH,
SACO RIVER AT CONWAY, NH, AND SWIFT RIVER AT ROXBURY, ME.
:
WHERE SOME RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE, NORTHERN VERMONT, NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE RIVER LEVELS RESPONDED WITH MINOR TO SMALL RISES. ELSEWHERE
RIVER LEVELS MAINTAINED EARLIER RECESSION TRENDS. RECEDING TRENDS
VARIED ANYWHERE FROM MODERATELY TO SLOWLY AT FORECAST LOCATIONS.
FLUCTUATIONS OF SEVERAL FEET OCCURRED FOR FORECAST LOCATIONS
DOWNSTREAM OF DAMS OR AT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE
TIDAL CYCLE.
:
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATER WATCH WEBPAGE... 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS RELATIVE TO THOSE OCCURRING HISTORICALLY FOR TUESDAY,
10/21 ARE IN THE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGES ACROSS MOST OF
NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND. RECENT RAINFALL AND INCREASED
RIVER FLOWS HAVE PROVIDED FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FLOWS SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE, WESTERN MAINE
, MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN TO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND, EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS,
AND EASTERN NEW YORK STATE RECORDED WEEKLY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       ED CAPONE
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                ERICK BOEHMLER






000
AGUS71 KTAR 221607
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1205 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z( 10 AM EDT ) MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS...UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL CUTOFF CAUSING THE STORM TO MEANDER/HEAD NORTHEAST
INTO FRIDAY NEAR OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
:
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST
ATLANTIC INFLOW AND MOIST CONVEYOR BELT TARGETING AREAS FROM
NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MAINE AND
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH 8 AM EDT FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS THIS AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
:
NERFC METEOROLOGISTS AND HYDROLOGISTS ARE MONITORING THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY SINCE RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
:
RAINFALL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS HEAVIEST IN COASTAL SOUTHERN
MAINE WHERE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES WAS COMMON (PORTLAND RECEIVED 1.90
INCHES)  THIS HEAVY RAINFALL AREA IS NEARLY THE SAME AREA WHERE WE
EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 24 TO 72 HOURS.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AND WILL INTENSIFY
DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS ARE WETTER
THAN EARLIER IN THE MONTH WITH RECENT RAINFALL LATE LAST WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BASINS
RECEIVED UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT ADDING TO THE
WETTER CONDITIONS. FURTHER, EVAPO- TRANSPIRATION CONTINUES TO
DECLINE WITH THE LOSS OF LEAF COVER.
:
THE GREATEST FORECAST RISING RIVER RESPONSES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
FORECAST LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN MAINE, MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH TOMORROW. RISING RIVER RESPONSES ARE MORE LIKELY TO EXCEED
THE RECENT RISES LAST WEEKEND WITH THE ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION
AND THE INCREASED RUNOFF.
:
MOST RISING RIVER RESPONSES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW BANK-FULL
LEVELS IN THE NERFC REGION. HOWEVER, THE PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR RIVER LEVELS OF RAPIDLY RESPONDING
HEADWATER AND SMALLER TRIBUTARY RIVERS TO EXCEED MINOR FLOOD
LEVELS AT AN ISOLATED RIVER FORECAST LOCATION OR TWO, PARTICULARLY
IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO
FORECAST LOCATIONS FOR THE PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AT WOODSTOCK, NH,
SACO RIVER AT CONWAY, NH, AND SWIFT RIVER AT ROXBURY, ME.
:
WHERE SOME RAINFALL OCCURRED YESTERDAY IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE, NORTHERN VERMONT, NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE RIVER LEVELS RESPONDED WITH MINOR TO SMALL RISES. ELSEWHERE
RIVER LEVELS MAINTAINED EARLIER RECESSION TRENDS. RECEDING TRENDS
VARIED ANYWHERE FROM MODERATELY TO SLOWLY AT FORECAST LOCATIONS.
FLUCTUATIONS OF SEVERAL FEET OCCURRED FOR FORECAST LOCATIONS
DOWNSTREAM OF DAMS OR AT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE
TIDAL CYCLE.
:
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATER WATCH WEBPAGE... 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS RELATIVE TO THOSE OCCURRING HISTORICALLY FOR TUESDAY,
10/21 ARE IN THE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGES ACROSS MOST OF
NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND. RECENT RAINFALL AND INCREASED
RIVER FLOWS HAVE PROVIDED FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FLOWS SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE, WESTERN MAINE
, MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN TO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND, EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS,
AND EASTERN NEW YORK STATE RECORDED WEEKLY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       ED CAPONE
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                ERICK BOEHMLER






000
AGUS71 KTAR 221503
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1103 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z( 10 AM EDT ) MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS LOW DEVELOPS...UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL CUTOFF CAUSING THE STORM TO MEANDER/HEAD NORTHEAST
INTO FRIDAY NEAR OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
:
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST
ATLANTIC INFLOW AND MOIST CONVEYOR BELT TARGETING AREAS FROM
NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MAINE AND
EXTENDING INTO EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
THROUGH 8 AM EDT FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE
ACROSS THIS AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
:
NERFC METEOROLOGISTS AND HYDROLOGISTS ARE MONITORING THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH FRIDAY SINCE RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
:
RAINFALL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS HEAVIEST IN COASTAL SOUTHERN
MAINE WHERE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES WAS COMMON (PORTLAND RECEIVED 1.90
INCHES)  THIS HEAVY RAINFALL AREA IS NEARLY THE SAME AREA WHERE WE
EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 24 TO 72 HOURS.
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       ED CAPONE
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                ERICK BOEHMLER






000
AGUS71 KTAR 211556
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1154 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z( 10 AM EDT ) MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN NY..THIS LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND THEN
REDEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. AS THIS NEW LOW
DEVELOPS...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL CUTOFF CAUSING THE STORM TO
MEANDER ABOUT RIGHT INTO FRIDAY NEAR OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND.
:
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS SHOW THE BEST ATLANTIC INFLOW
AND MOIST CONVEYOR BELT TARGETING AREAS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MAINE...THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND PERHAPS THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN VERMONT IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME
FRAME AND THOSE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FROM THIS SYSTEM. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2.00 - 4.00 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF MAINE SOUTH TO THE COAST WITH ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
:
NERFC METEOROLOGISTS AND HYDROLOGISTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY THIS WEEK SINCE RAINFALL COULD
BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND PERHAPS
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AS WELL.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND,
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEW ENGLAND PRIMARILY.
THE GREATEST RISING RIVER RESPONSES ARE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS
ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND CENTRAL TO WESTERN MAINE. ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS ARE WETTER THAN EARLIER IN THE MONTH
WITH RECENT RAINFALL LATE LAST WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. FURTHER,
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE WITH THE LOSS OF LEAF
COVER. THUS, RISING RIVER RESPONSES ARE MORE LIKELY TO EXCEED THE
RECENT RISES LAST WEEKEND WITH THE ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION AND
THE INCREASED RUNOFF.
:
MOST RISING RIVER RESPONSES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW BANK-FULL
LEVELS. HOWEVER, THE PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR RIVER LEVELS OF RAPIDLY RESPONDING HEADWATER AND SMALLER
TRIBUTARY RIVERS TO EXCEED MINOR FLOOD LEVELS AT AN ISOLATED RIVER
FORECAST LOCATION OR TWO, PARTICULARLY IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
. THIS INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO FORECAST LOCATIONS FOR THE
PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AT WOODSTOCK, NH, SACO RIVER AT CONWAY, NH, AND
SWIFT RIVER AT ROXBURY, ME.
:
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY
AND OVERNIGHT ALLOWED RIVER LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER. OVERALL,
RIVER LEVELS RECEDED EVEN WHERE BASINS RECEIVED SOME RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT IN NEW YORK STATE AND VERMONT. RECEDING TRENDS VARIED
ANYWHERE FROM RAPIDLY TO SLOWLY AT FORECAST LOCATIONS. THERE WERE
ONLY A FEW FORECAST LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE BASINS
RECEIVED SUFFICIENT RAINFALL TO RESULT IN MINOR, LESS THAN 1 FOOT
RISING RESPONSES PRIOR TO 8AM THIS MORNING. FLUCTUATIONS OF
SEVERAL FEET OCCURRED FOR FORECAST LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF DAMS OR
AT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIDAL CYCLE.
:
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATER WATCH WEBPAGE... 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS RELATIVE TO THOSE OCCURRING HISTORICALLY FOR MONDAY,
10/20 ARE IN THE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGES ACROSS MOST OF
NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND. RECENT RAINFALL AND INCREASED
RIVER FLOWS HAVE PROVIDED FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FLOWS SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE, WESTERN MAINE
, MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN TO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND, EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS,
AND EASTERN NEW YORK STATE RECORDED WEEKLY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       ED CAPONE
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                ERICK BOEHMLER






000
AGUS71 KTAR 211556
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1154 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z( 10 AM EDT ) MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN NY..THIS LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND THEN
REDEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. AS THIS NEW LOW
DEVELOPS...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL CUTOFF CAUSING THE STORM TO
MEANDER ABOUT RIGHT INTO FRIDAY NEAR OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND.
:
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS SHOW THE BEST ATLANTIC INFLOW
AND MOIST CONVEYOR BELT TARGETING AREAS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MAINE...THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND PERHAPS THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN VERMONT IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME
FRAME AND THOSE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FROM THIS SYSTEM. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2.00 - 4.00 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF MAINE SOUTH TO THE COAST WITH ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
:
NERFC METEOROLOGISTS AND HYDROLOGISTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY THIS WEEK SINCE RAINFALL COULD
BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND PERHAPS
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AS WELL.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND,
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD EASTERN NEW ENGLAND PRIMARILY.
THE GREATEST RISING RIVER RESPONSES ARE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS
ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND CENTRAL TO WESTERN MAINE. ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS ARE WETTER THAN EARLIER IN THE MONTH
WITH RECENT RAINFALL LATE LAST WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. FURTHER,
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE WITH THE LOSS OF LEAF
COVER. THUS, RISING RIVER RESPONSES ARE MORE LIKELY TO EXCEED THE
RECENT RISES LAST WEEKEND WITH THE ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION AND
THE INCREASED RUNOFF.
:
MOST RISING RIVER RESPONSES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW BANK-FULL
LEVELS. HOWEVER, THE PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR RIVER LEVELS OF RAPIDLY RESPONDING HEADWATER AND SMALLER
TRIBUTARY RIVERS TO EXCEED MINOR FLOOD LEVELS AT AN ISOLATED RIVER
FORECAST LOCATION OR TWO, PARTICULARLY IN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
. THIS INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO FORECAST LOCATIONS FOR THE
PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AT WOODSTOCK, NH, SACO RIVER AT CONWAY, NH, AND
SWIFT RIVER AT ROXBURY, ME.
:
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY
AND OVERNIGHT ALLOWED RIVER LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER. OVERALL,
RIVER LEVELS RECEDED EVEN WHERE BASINS RECEIVED SOME RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT IN NEW YORK STATE AND VERMONT. RECEDING TRENDS VARIED
ANYWHERE FROM RAPIDLY TO SLOWLY AT FORECAST LOCATIONS. THERE WERE
ONLY A FEW FORECAST LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE BASINS
RECEIVED SUFFICIENT RAINFALL TO RESULT IN MINOR, LESS THAN 1 FOOT
RISING RESPONSES PRIOR TO 8AM THIS MORNING. FLUCTUATIONS OF
SEVERAL FEET OCCURRED FOR FORECAST LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF DAMS OR
AT LOCATIONS WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIDAL CYCLE.
:
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATER WATCH WEBPAGE... 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS RELATIVE TO THOSE OCCURRING HISTORICALLY FOR MONDAY,
10/20 ARE IN THE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGES ACROSS MOST OF
NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND. RECENT RAINFALL AND INCREASED
RIVER FLOWS HAVE PROVIDED FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FLOWS SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE, WESTERN MAINE
, MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN TO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.
SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND, EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS,
AND EASTERN NEW YORK STATE RECORDED WEEKLY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       ED CAPONE
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                ERICK BOEHMLER






000
AGUS71 KTAR 211508
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1107 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z( 10 AM EDT ) MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN NY..THIS LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND THEN
REDEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND BY THIS EVENING. AS THIS NEW LOW
DEVELOPS...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL CUTOFF CAUSING THE STORM TO
MEANDER ABOUT RIGHT INTO FRIDAY NEAR OR JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND.
:
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS SHOW THE BEST ATLANTIC INFLOW
AND MOIST CONVEYOR BELT TARGETING AREAS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MAINE...THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND PERHAPS THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN VERMONT IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME
FRAME AND THOSE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
FROM THIS SYSTEM. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2.00 - 4.00 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF MAINE SOUTH TO THE COAST WITH ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
:
NERFC METEOROLOGISTS AND HYDROLOGISTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY THIS WEEK SINCE RAINFALL COULD
BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND PERHAPS
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AS WELL.
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       ED CAPONE
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                ERICK BOEHMLER






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