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000
AGUS71 KTAR 191642
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1240 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z ( 10 AM EDT ) SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLDER AIR ACROSS THE SEVEN STATE REGION OF NEW
ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE. IN FACT...LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS ARE BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
STATE AND ABOVE 2500 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH SOME RAINSHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS. THESE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASIN AVERAGE MELTED
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH.
:
A BRIEF SPELL OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND REDEVELOPS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY EVENING...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE
REGION OUTSIDE OF NORTHERN MAINE. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CUT OFF AND MEANDER AROUND ALL THE WAY INTO FRIDAY KEEPING A
LOT OF THE NERFC SERVICE AREA UNDER THE GUN FOR RAINFALL RIGHT
THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WE THINK SOME OF THE RAINFALL
ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME SIGNIFICANT
WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE.
:
OVER THE PAST 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 8 AM EDT THIS SUNDAY
MORNING...RAINSHOWERS WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRED IN NORTHERN VERMONT WHERE BASIN
AVERAGES OF 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES WERE COMMON WITH SOME HIGHER POINT
TOTALS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL REPORTED INTO THE NERFC FOR THE PAST
24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING CAME FROM
JEFFERSONVILLE IN NORTHERN VERMONT WHERE 1.03 INCHES WAS RECORDED
.

:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
THE SLOWEST RESPONDING TRIBUTARIES AND MAIN-STEM RIVERS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE ST. JOHN AND PENOBSCOT RIVER VALLEYS OF NORTHERN MAINE
, THE HUDSON RIVER ABOVE ALBANY, NY AND THE BLACK RIVER NEAR
WATERTOWN, NY WILL CONTINUE GRADUAL RISING LEVELS THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY AND A FEW LOCATIONS INTO MONDAY. THE LOWER PORTIONS OF
THE MERRIMACK AND CONNECTICUT RIVER HAVE CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE
TO RECEDE TODAY. MOST LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE THE RECEDING TRENDS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS INTO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
:
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH RAINFALL BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD NEW YORK
STATE AND NEW ENGLAND, RIVER LEVELS GENERALLY WILL BE ON THE RISE
ONCE AGAIN. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE MORE WET THAN EARLIER IN
THE MONTH AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IS DECLINING RAPIDLY WITH THE
LOSS OF LEAF COVER. AS A RESULT, PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED FROM
THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
RIVER LEVELS OF RAPIDLY RESPONDING HEADWATER AND SMALLER
TRIBUTARY RIVERS TO EXCEED MINOR FLOOD LEVELS AT AN ISOLATED RIVER
FORECAST LOCATION OR TWO.
:
RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS RESULTED IN SMALL RISING
RESPONSES OR REDUCED RECEDING TRENDS FOR MANY FORECAST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT AND THE
NORTHERN HUDSON AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEYS. ELSEWHERE, RIVER
FORECAST LOCATIONS RECORDED ANYWHERE FROM RAPIDLY TO SLOWLY
RECEDING LEVELS YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS OF SEVERAL
FEET OCCURRED FOR FORECAST LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF DAMS OR AT
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIDAL CYCLE.
:
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATER WATCH WEBPAGE... 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS RELATIVE TO THOSE HISTORICALLY FOR SATURDAY, 10/18 ARE
IN THE NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGES ACROSS MOST OF NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND. RECENT RAINFALL AND INCREASED RIVER FLOWS HAVE
PROVIDED FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS
RECORDED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE, WESTERN MAINE, MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN TO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. MANY LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND CONTINUE TO REPORT WEEKLY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       RON HORWOOD
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                ERICK BOEHMLER






000
AGUS71 KTAR 191434
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1031 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z ( 10 AM EDT ) SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLDER AIR ACROSS THE SEVEN STATE REGION OF NEW
ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE. IN FACT...LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS ARE BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
STATE AND ABOVE 2500 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH SOME RAINSHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS. THESE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASIN AVERAGE MELTED
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION ONLY ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH.
:
A BRIEF SPELL OF DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND REDEVELOPS SOUTH OF
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY EVENING...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE
REGION OUTSIDE OF NORTHERN MAINE. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CUT OFF AND MEANDER AROUND ALL THE WAY INTO FRIDAY KEEPING A
LOT OF THE NERFC SERVICE AREA UNDER THE GUN FOR RAINFALL RIGHT
THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WE THINK SOME OF THE RAINFALL
ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME SIGNIFICANT
WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE.
:
OVER THE PAST 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 8 AM EDT THIS SUNDAY
MORNING...RAINSHOWERS WERE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRED IN NORTHERN VERMONT WHERE BASIN
AVERAGES OF 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES WERE COMMON WITH SOME HIGHER POINT
TOTALS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL REPORTED INTO THE NERFC FOR THE PAST
24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING CAME FROM
JEFFERSONVILLE IN NORTHERN VERMONT WHERE 1.03 INCHES WAS RECORDED
.

:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       RON HORWOOD
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                ERICK BOEHMLER






000
AGUS71 KTAR 181627
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1226 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

*** A COLD BLAST ON THE WAY FOR NEW ENGLAND/NEW YORK STATE ***
*** SOME SNOWSHOWERS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEXT 48 HOURS ***

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z ( 10 AM EDT ) SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...MILD AND MODERATELY HUMID AIR WILL HELP SPARK NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST WIND WILL
PRODUCE UPSLOPE RAINSHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WILL CHANGE TO SNOWSHOWERS ABOVE 3000 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE SEASON SO FAR WILL THEN SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
:
BASIN AVERAGE MELTED EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION THROUGH 8 AM EDT
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED FROM CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VERMONT NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO MOST OF
WESTERN/NORTHERN MAINE WHERE 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES IS EXPECTED.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
:
OVER THE PAST 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 8 AM EDT THIS SATURDAY
MORNING...HEAVY RAINFALL LINGERED ACROSS EASTERN MAINE WHERE BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL OF 0.50 - 1.25 INCHES WAS OBSERVED FROM CALAIS
NORTH THROUGH HOULTON TO CARIBOU AND FRENCHVILLE. BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL OF AROUND 0.50 INCHES ALSO OCCURRED ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE AS HEAVY SHOWERS PUSHED EAST OFF OF
LAKE ERIE. THE HIGHEST POINT RAINFALL TOTAL REPORTED INTO THE
NERFC FOR THE PAST 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
CAME FROM NORTHEAST MAINE WHERE PRESQUE ISLE REPORTED 1.72 INCHES
.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
THE SLOWEST RESPONDING RIVERS, PRIMARILY ACROSS MAINE, BUT ALSO
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE MERRIMACK, CONNECTICUT, HUDSON, GENESEE,
AND BLACK RIVERS WILL CONTINUE GRADUAL RISES THROUGH TODAY OR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHERE RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED FLOOD
LEVELS. RIVER BASINS RECEIVING RAINFALL TODAY ARE FORECAST TO
RECEDE MORE SLOWLY OR RECORD SMALL ADDITIONAL RISING RESPONSES OF
A FOOT OR LESS. ELSEWHERE, RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS WILL RAPIDLY TO
MODERATELY RECEDE.
:
CONSIDERABLE AND SIGNIFICANT RISING RIVER RESPONSES AS MUCH AS 9
FEET DURING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE CRESTED FOR MOST HEADWATER
AND SMALL TRIBUTARY BASINS. THE LOWER PORTIONS OF MAIN-STEM RIVERS
AND THE MORE SLOWLY RESPONDING RIVERS CONTINUED TO RISE OVER THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS. ADDITIONAL FLUCTUATIONS OF SEVERAL FEET OCCURRED
FOR FORECAST LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF DAMS OR AT LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIDAL CYCLE.
:
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATER WATCH WEBPAGE... 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS RELATIVE TO THOSE YESTERDAY, 10/17 THROUGH RECORDED
HISTORY ARE IN THE NORMAL RANGE ACROSS MOST OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND. RECENT RAINFALL AND INCREASED RIVER FLOWS HAVE PROVIDED
FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH ABOVE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS
RECORDED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE, NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
WESTERN TO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. MOST LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND CONTINUE TO REPORT WEEKLY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       RON HORWOOD
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                ERICK BOEHMLER






000
AGUS71 KTAR 181627
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1226 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

*** A COLD BLAST ON THE WAY FOR NEW ENGLAND/NEW YORK STATE ***
*** SOME SNOWSHOWERS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEXT 48 HOURS ***

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z ( 10 AM EDT ) SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...MILD AND MODERATELY HUMID AIR WILL HELP SPARK NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST WIND WILL
PRODUCE UPSLOPE RAINSHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WILL CHANGE TO SNOWSHOWERS ABOVE 3000 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE SEASON SO FAR WILL THEN SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
:
BASIN AVERAGE MELTED EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION THROUGH 8 AM EDT
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED FROM CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VERMONT NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO MOST OF
WESTERN/NORTHERN MAINE WHERE 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES IS EXPECTED.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
:
OVER THE PAST 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 8 AM EDT THIS SATURDAY
MORNING...HEAVY RAINFALL LINGERED ACROSS EASTERN MAINE WHERE BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL OF 0.50 - 1.25 INCHES WAS OBSERVED FROM CALAIS
NORTH THROUGH HOULTON TO CARIBOU AND FRENCHVILLE. BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL OF AROUND 0.50 INCHES ALSO OCCURRED ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE AS HEAVY SHOWERS PUSHED EAST OFF OF
LAKE ERIE. THE HIGHEST POINT RAINFALL TOTAL REPORTED INTO THE
NERFC FOR THE PAST 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
CAME FROM NORTHEAST MAINE WHERE PRESQUE ISLE REPORTED 1.72 INCHES
.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
THE SLOWEST RESPONDING RIVERS, PRIMARILY ACROSS MAINE, BUT ALSO
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE MERRIMACK, CONNECTICUT, HUDSON, GENESEE,
AND BLACK RIVERS WILL CONTINUE GRADUAL RISES THROUGH TODAY OR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHERE RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED FLOOD
LEVELS. RIVER BASINS RECEIVING RAINFALL TODAY ARE FORECAST TO
RECEDE MORE SLOWLY OR RECORD SMALL ADDITIONAL RISING RESPONSES OF
A FOOT OR LESS. ELSEWHERE, RIVER LEVEL FORECASTS WILL RAPIDLY TO
MODERATELY RECEDE.
:
CONSIDERABLE AND SIGNIFICANT RISING RIVER RESPONSES AS MUCH AS 9
FEET DURING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE CRESTED FOR MOST HEADWATER
AND SMALL TRIBUTARY BASINS. THE LOWER PORTIONS OF MAIN-STEM RIVERS
AND THE MORE SLOWLY RESPONDING RIVERS CONTINUED TO RISE OVER THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS. ADDITIONAL FLUCTUATIONS OF SEVERAL FEET OCCURRED
FOR FORECAST LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF DAMS OR AT LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE INFLUENCE OF THE TIDAL CYCLE.
:
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATER WATCH WEBPAGE... 7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS RELATIVE TO THOSE YESTERDAY, 10/17 THROUGH RECORDED
HISTORY ARE IN THE NORMAL RANGE ACROSS MOST OF NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND. RECENT RAINFALL AND INCREASED RIVER FLOWS HAVE PROVIDED
FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH ABOVE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL FLOWS
RECORDED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE, NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
WESTERN TO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS. MOST LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND CONTINUE TO REPORT WEEKLY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       RON HORWOOD
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                ERICK BOEHMLER






000
AGUS71 KTAR 181429
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1027 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

*** A COLD BLAST ON THE WAY FOR NEW ENGLAND/NEW YORK STATE ***
*** SOME SNOWSHOWERS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEXT 48 HOURS ***

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z ( 10 AM EDT ) SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...MILD AND MODERATELY HUMID AIR WILL HELP SPARK NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A STRONG WEST AND NORTHWEST WIND WILL
PRODUCE UPSLOPE RAINSHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WHICH WILL CHANGE TO SNOWSHOWERS ABOVE 3000 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF
THE SEASON SO FAR WILL THEN SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
:
BASIN AVERAGE MELTED EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION THROUGH 8 AM EDT
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED FROM CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VERMONT NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO MOST OF
WESTERN/NORTHERN MAINE WHERE 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES IS EXPECTED.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
:
OVER THE PAST 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 8 AM EDT THIS SATURDAY
MORNING...HEAVY RAINFALL LINGERED ACROSS EASTERN MAINE WHERE BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL OF 0.50 - 1.25 INCHES WAS OBSERVED FROM CALAIS
NORTH THROUGH HOULTON TO CARIBOU AND FRENCHVILLE. BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL OF AROUND 0.50 INCHES ALSO OCCURRED ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE AS HEAVY SHOWERS PUSHED EAST OFF OF
LAKE ERIE. THE HIGHEST POINT RAINFALL TOTAL REPORTED INTO THE
NERFC FOR THE PAST 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
CAME FROM NORTHEAST MAINE WHERE PRESQUE ISLE REPORTED 1.72 INCHES
.
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       RON HORWOOD
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                ERICK BOEHMLER






000
AGUS71 KTAR 171725
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
124 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z ( 10 AM EDT ) SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT PRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 - 0.75
INCHES OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VERMONT/NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD MAINLY BE NEAR OR LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
:
ON SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE IN THE MORNING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ACCOMPANYING THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL USHER IN THE
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE SEVEN STATE REGION OF NEW
ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE. IN FACT...SOME SNOWSHOWERS COULD
OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK STATE AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
:
OVER THE PAST 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 8 AM EDT THIS FRIDAY
MORNING...HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF NEW ENGLAND EAST
OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN MAINE AND
ALSO ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL OF 1-3
INCHES WAS COMMON FROM EASTERN CONNECTICUT NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE SOUTHERN
ONE-HALF OF MAINE. ASIDE FROM SOME HEAVY RAINSHOWERS NEAR BUFFALO
OVERNIGHT...VERY LITTLE RAIN FELL ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK STATE.
THE FOLLOWING IS A TOP 10 LIST FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS REPORTED INTO
THE NERFC FOR THE PAST 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING.
:
STATE            LOCATION                 RAINFALL IN INCHES
:
NEW HAMPSHIRE    DANBURY COCORAHS                3.92
NEW HAMPSHIRE    MOUNT WASHINGTON                3.10
NEW HAMPSHIRE    SALISBURY                       3.08
NEW HAMPSHIRE    EAST MILFORD                    3.00
MAINE            MCFARLAND HILL RAWS             2.97
MASSACHUSETTS    ASHBURNHAM                      2.96
MASSACHUSETTS    BARRE FALLS DAM                 2.89
NEW HAMPSHIRE    PINKHAM NOTCH                   2.88
MASSACHUSETTS    BARRE FALLS DAM DCP             2.84
NEW HAMPSHIRE    PLYMOUTH COCORAHS               2.80
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
MINOR RIVER FLOODING OCCURRED ON THE PEMIGEWASSET RIVER NEAR
WOODSTOCK...NH THURSDAY EVENING AS A RESULT OF THE HEAVY RAIN THAT
FELL THERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OTHER LOCATIONS
IN CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE HAD RISES TO JUST
ABOVE THEIR ACTION STAGES. MANY OTHER LOCATIONS HAD MINOR TO
MODERATE RISES OF UP TO FOUR FEET.
:
RIVERS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WERE STARTING TO CREST FRIDAY MORNING
FROM THE RAIN THAT FELL THERE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY
. THE BLACK RIVER AT BOONVILLE...NY CRESTED OVER ACTION STAGE. THE
BLACK RIVER WILL CREST BELOW ACTION STAGE AT WATERTOWN THIS
WEEKEND.
:
THE QUICKER RESPONDING RIVERS IN THE AREA HAD CRESTED BY EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLOWEST RESPONDING RIVERS WILL CONTINUE
GRADUAL RISES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST.
:
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATER WATCH WEBPAGE...7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS ACROSS MOST OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND ARE RUNNING AT LEVELS THAT ARE NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. A FEW LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND ARE STILL AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC INDICATES SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       RON HORWOOD
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                JEFF OUELLET






000
AGUS71 KTAR 171516
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
1113 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014

*** HEAVY RAINFALL TO END ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN MAINE ***
*** COLDER AIR POISED TO MOVE IN THIS WEEKEND ***

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
14Z ( 10 AM EDT ) SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT PRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 - 0.75
INCHES OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL. ELSEWHERE...SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VERMONT/NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD MAINLY BE NEAR OR LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
:
ON SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE IN THE MORNING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ACCOMPANYING THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH WILL USHER IN THE
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE SEVEN STATE REGION OF NEW
ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE. IN FACT...SOME SNOWSHOWERS COULD
OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN
NEW YORK STATE AND THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
:
OVER THE PAST 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 8 AM EDT THIS FRIDAY
MORNING...HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF NEW ENGLAND EAST
OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN MAINE AND
ALSO ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL OF 1-3
INCHES WAS COMMON FROM EASTERN CONNECTICUT NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE SOUTHERN
ONE-HALF OF MAINE. ASIDE FROM SOME HEAVY RAINSHOWERS NEAR BUFFALO
OVERNIGHT...VERY LITTLE RAIN FELL ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK STATE.
THE FOLLOWING IS A TOP 10 LIST FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS REPORTED INTO
THE NERFC FOR THE PAST 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING.
:
STATE            LOCATION                 RAINFALL IN INCHES
:
NEW HAMPSHIRE    DANBURY COCORAHS                3.92
NEW HAMPSHIRE    MOUNT WASHINGTON                3.10
NEW HAMPSHIRE    SALISBURY                       3.08
NEW HAMPSHIRE    EAST MILFORD                    3.00
MAINE            MCFARLAND HILL RAWS             2.97
MASSACHUSETTS    ASHBURNHAM                      2.96
MASSACHUSETTS    BARRE FALLS DAM                 2.89
NEW HAMPSHIRE    PINKHAM NOTCH                   2.88
MASSACHUSETTS    BARRE FALLS DAM DCP             2.84
NEW HAMPSHIRE    PLYMOUTH COCORAHS               2.80
:
$$
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:       RON HORWOOD
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                JEFF OUELLET






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