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000
AGAK78 PACR 282339
HMDACR

AGAK78 PACR DDHHMM
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY LOW FOR THE STATE.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
THE COMPLEX PATTERN OF TROUGHS AND EMBEDDED LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WERE THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES ON
SUNDAY. AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING AROUND THE GULF LOW PRODUCED SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS WERE
CORRECT IN MOVING A WAVE OF ENERGY QUICKLY THROUGH THE WESTERN
MAINLAND EARLY THIS MORNING.  A WIDE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINLAND WAS THE RESULT.

THE DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUED TO STABILIZE
ON MONDAY. THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE ARCTIC WILL
PHASE WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING. INFRARED... WATER
VAPOR AND EVEN RADAR IMAGES ARE DEPICTING A WELL DEFINED SYSTEM THAT
WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON MONDAY. A MUCH SMALLER BUT STILL
SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF ENERGY SWEEPS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH HELPING TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL RATES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN END. AMOUNTS AND INTENSITY IN THIS PART OF THE STATE WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

OUT WEST... AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS MORNING. IN THE LONGER RANGE... MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE FOR THE RIDGE TO START TILTING EAST OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS HELPING TO STABILIZE AND DRY MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE
MAINLAND ON THROUGH THRUSDAY AND AND EVEN SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.

FREEZING LEVELS MONDAY MORNING EXPLODED ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AND VALUES THAT RANGED
BETWEEN 9000 AND 10000 FT. FREEZING LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
STATE AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT WERE BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES BETWEEN 5500
FT AT KOTZEBUE AND 7900 FT AT ANNETTE. BARROW REPORTED A FREEZING
LEVEL OF 500 FT.

PRECIPITATION... SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE 24 HOURS
ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS    24 HR
======== ====                 == ==    =====
PSJA2    PORT SAN JUAN        PC RM :   2.20
ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PC RG :   1.35
PAPG     PETERSBURG           PP RZ :   1.32
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PC RG :   1.30
NUCA2    NUCHEK               PC RM :   1.10
KKEA2    KAKE RAWS            PC RG :   0.91
BGLA2    BERING GLACIER RAWS  PC RG :   0.91
KKEA2    KAKE RAWS            PP RG :   0.90
PAKT     KETCHIKAN            PP RZ :   0.83
PAKW     KLAWOCK              PP RZ :   0.82
LLKA2    LONG LAKE SNOTEL     PC RM :   0.80
BGLA2    BERING GLACIER RAWS  PP RG :   0.73
META2    AK METLAKATLA 6S     PP RZ :   0.68
GNNA2    GLENNALLEN CRN       PP RZ :   0.66
PANT     ANNETTE              PP RZ :   0.62
SRYA2    SITUK RIVER NR YAKUT PP RG :   0.60
SPPA2    SNETTISHAM POWER PLA PP RZ :   0.60
ESIA2    ESTHER ISLAND        PC RM :   0.60
PXKA2    PAXSON RAWS          PC RG :   0.55
GNNA2    GLENNALLEN CRN       PP RG :   0.55
PAHN     HAINES LANDING STRIP PP RZ :   0.51
TTKA2    TATITLEK             PC RM :   0.50
EYKA2    MT EYAK              PC RM :   0.50
BLTA2    BARTLETT COVE        PP RG :   0.50
BKLA2    BUCKLAND UPLANDS RAW PC RG :   0.48
HAYA2    HAYCOCK RAWS NR KOYU PP RG :   0.46
PECA2    PELICAN              PP RZ :   0.42
SUGA2    SUGARLOAF MOUNTAIN   PC RM :   0.40
SOUA2    SOULE RIVER NEAR HYD PP RG :   0.40
RHOA2    RHOADS CREEK         PC RM :   0.40
AMCA2    AMERICAN CREEK       PC RM :   0.40
PAYA     YAKUTAT              PP RZ :   0.39
KLAA2    KLAWASKI RAWS NR GLE PC RG :   0.38
THOA2    THORNE BAY RAWS      PC RG :   0.34
PAEG     EAGLE                PP RZ :   0.34
CSNA2    CHISANA RAWS         PP RG :   0.34

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
MAINLAND AND SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND.

....................................................................

THIS HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZE-UP BEGINS
IN THE FALL.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

ETH





000
AGAK78 PACR 282339
HMDACR

AGAK78 PACR DDHHMM
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT MON JUL 28 2014

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY LOW FOR THE STATE.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
THE COMPLEX PATTERN OF TROUGHS AND EMBEDDED LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WERE THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES ON
SUNDAY. AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING AROUND THE GULF LOW PRODUCED SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS WERE
CORRECT IN MOVING A WAVE OF ENERGY QUICKLY THROUGH THE WESTERN
MAINLAND EARLY THIS MORNING.  A WIDE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINLAND WAS THE RESULT.

THE DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUED TO STABILIZE
ON MONDAY. THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE ARCTIC WILL
PHASE WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING. INFRARED... WATER
VAPOR AND EVEN RADAR IMAGES ARE DEPICTING A WELL DEFINED SYSTEM THAT
WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON MONDAY. A MUCH SMALLER BUT STILL
SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF ENERGY SWEEPS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH HELPING TO ENHANCE THE RAINFALL RATES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN END. AMOUNTS AND INTENSITY IN THIS PART OF THE STATE WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

OUT WEST... AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS MORNING. IN THE LONGER RANGE... MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE FOR THE RIDGE TO START TILTING EAST OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS HELPING TO STABILIZE AND DRY MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE
MAINLAND ON THROUGH THRUSDAY AND AND EVEN SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY.

FREEZING LEVELS MONDAY MORNING EXPLODED ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AND VALUES THAT RANGED
BETWEEN 9000 AND 10000 FT. FREEZING LEVELS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
STATE AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT WERE BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES BETWEEN 5500
FT AT KOTZEBUE AND 7900 FT AT ANNETTE. BARROW REPORTED A FREEZING
LEVEL OF 500 FT.

PRECIPITATION... SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE 24 HOURS
ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS    24 HR
======== ====                 == ==    =====
PSJA2    PORT SAN JUAN        PC RM :   2.20
ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PC RG :   1.35
PAPG     PETERSBURG           PP RZ :   1.32
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PC RG :   1.30
NUCA2    NUCHEK               PC RM :   1.10
KKEA2    KAKE RAWS            PC RG :   0.91
BGLA2    BERING GLACIER RAWS  PC RG :   0.91
KKEA2    KAKE RAWS            PP RG :   0.90
PAKT     KETCHIKAN            PP RZ :   0.83
PAKW     KLAWOCK              PP RZ :   0.82
LLKA2    LONG LAKE SNOTEL     PC RM :   0.80
BGLA2    BERING GLACIER RAWS  PP RG :   0.73
META2    AK METLAKATLA 6S     PP RZ :   0.68
GNNA2    GLENNALLEN CRN       PP RZ :   0.66
PANT     ANNETTE              PP RZ :   0.62
SRYA2    SITUK RIVER NR YAKUT PP RG :   0.60
SPPA2    SNETTISHAM POWER PLA PP RZ :   0.60
ESIA2    ESTHER ISLAND        PC RM :   0.60
PXKA2    PAXSON RAWS          PC RG :   0.55
GNNA2    GLENNALLEN CRN       PP RG :   0.55
PAHN     HAINES LANDING STRIP PP RZ :   0.51
TTKA2    TATITLEK             PC RM :   0.50
EYKA2    MT EYAK              PC RM :   0.50
BLTA2    BARTLETT COVE        PP RG :   0.50
BKLA2    BUCKLAND UPLANDS RAW PC RG :   0.48
HAYA2    HAYCOCK RAWS NR KOYU PP RG :   0.46
PECA2    PELICAN              PP RZ :   0.42
SUGA2    SUGARLOAF MOUNTAIN   PC RM :   0.40
SOUA2    SOULE RIVER NEAR HYD PP RG :   0.40
RHOA2    RHOADS CREEK         PC RM :   0.40
AMCA2    AMERICAN CREEK       PC RM :   0.40
PAYA     YAKUTAT              PP RZ :   0.39
KLAA2    KLAWASKI RAWS NR GLE PC RG :   0.38
THOA2    THORNE BAY RAWS      PC RG :   0.34
PAEG     EAGLE                PP RZ :   0.34
CSNA2    CHISANA RAWS         PP RG :   0.34

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
MAINLAND AND SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND.

....................................................................

THIS HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZE-UP BEGINS
IN THE FALL.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

ETH




000
AGAK78 PACR 272200
HMDACR

AGAK78 PACR DDHHMM
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY LOW FOR THE STATE.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NEARLY CENTERED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND
EXTENDING WELL INTO EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE
AFFECTING THE STATE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. THE
SEMI PERMANENT LOW NEAR THE GULF KEPT THE SOUTHEAST AND MUCH OF THE
GULF COAST IN STEADY RAIN. FARTHER NORTH OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND
LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BERING SEA RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS EXTENDS
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE POLAR REACHES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT
BEGINS TO BEND EAST TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA. THE COMPLEX
PATTERN OF TROUGHS AND EMBEDDED LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND EASTERN RUSSIA REMAINS PRETTY MUCH INTACT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING AROUND THE GULF
LOW WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
SOME SHOWERS. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE SYSTEM THAT MODELS HAVE
ENTERING THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING THEN QUICKLY SLIDES DOWN THE
WESTERN MAINLAND MONDAY. A WIDE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

IN THE LONGER RANGE... THE HAZARDS OUTLOOK HAD HEAVY RAIN FOR THE
PANHANDLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY
TO SWING AROUND THE LOW IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN. CURRENT
MODELS RUNS ARE KEYING IN ON THIS AS WELL.  AS IS WHAT ALWAYS SEEMS
THE CASE... THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND UPPER YUKON IS NOT FAR BEHIND
IN RECEIVING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM THESE TYPE SYSTEMS AND
CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL FREEZING LEVEL WERE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST WITH VALUES ABOVE 10000 FT (NOME AT 10700 FT AND
BETHEL 9900 FT). OTHERWISE VALUES STATEWIDE WERE MUCH BELOW NORMAL
AND BETWEEN 5400 FT AT FAIRBANKS AND 7800 FT AT ANNETTE.

PRECIPITATION... SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE 24 HOURS
ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS    24 HR
======== ====                 == ==    =====
PAKT     KETCHIKAN            PP RZ :   2.55
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PC RG :   2.33
ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PC RG :   1.89
ALSQ9    ALSEK RIVER ABOVE BA PP RG :   1.69
BGLA2    BERING GLACIER RAWS  PP RG :   1.35
PAYA     YAKUTAT              PP RZ :   0.83
PASI     SITKA                PP RZ :   0.80
META2    AK METLAKATLA 6S     PP RZ :   0.61
SRYA2    SITUK RIVER NR YAKUT PP RG :   0.60
PANT     ANNETTE              PP RZ :   0.60
META2    AK METLAKATLA 6S     PP RG :   0.60
SIKA2    SITKA CRN            PP RZ :   0.59
PAHN     HAINES LANDING STRIP PP RZ :   0.57
KKEA2    KAKE RAWS            PP RG :   0.51
SOUA2    SOULE RIVER NEAR HYD PP RG :   0.50
HOZA2    HODZANA RIVER RAWS   PC RG :   0.49
SPPA2    SNETTISHAM POWER PLA PP RZ :   0.45
PAKW     KLAWOCK              PP RZ :   0.42
TUGA2    TURNAGAIN PASS SNOTE PC RM :   0.40
EYKA2    MT EYAK              PC RM :   0.40
BLTA2    BARTLETT COVE        PP RG :   0.40
ALEA2    ALSEK RIVER AT DRY B PC RG :   0.40
HCSA2    HAINES CUSTOMS       PP RZ :   0.38
YESA2    MOUNT ALYESKA SNOTEL PC RM :   0.30
UPPA2    UPPER TSAINA SNOTEL  PC RM :   0.30
THOA2    THORNE BAY RAWS      PC RG :   0.30
SUUA2    SUMMIT LAKE SNOTEL   PC RM :   0.30
SRFA2    STRAWBERRY REEF      PC RM :   0.30
SDIA2    SOUTH DOUGLAS        PC RZ :   0.30
DBA2    COPPER RIVER NR MILL PP RG :   0.30

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AND THE SOUTHERN
SOUTHEAST.

....................................................................

THIS HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZE-UP BEGINS
IN THE FALL.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

ETH





000
AGAK78 PACR 272200
HMDACR

AGAK78 PACR DDHHMM
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY LOW FOR THE STATE.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NEARLY CENTERED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND
EXTENDING WELL INTO EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE
AFFECTING THE STATE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. THE
SEMI PERMANENT LOW NEAR THE GULF KEPT THE SOUTHEAST AND MUCH OF THE
GULF COAST IN STEADY RAIN. FARTHER NORTH OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND
LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE BERING SEA RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS EXTENDS
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE POLAR REACHES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT
BEGINS TO BEND EAST TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA. THE COMPLEX
PATTERN OF TROUGHS AND EMBEDDED LOWS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE
OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND EASTERN RUSSIA REMAINS PRETTY MUCH INTACT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  AN EASTERLY WAVE MOVING AROUND THE GULF
LOW WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
SOME SHOWERS. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE SYSTEM THAT MODELS HAVE
ENTERING THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING THEN QUICKLY SLIDES DOWN THE
WESTERN MAINLAND MONDAY. A WIDE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

IN THE LONGER RANGE... THE HAZARDS OUTLOOK HAD HEAVY RAIN FOR THE
PANHANDLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY
TO SWING AROUND THE LOW IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN. CURRENT
MODELS RUNS ARE KEYING IN ON THIS AS WELL.  AS IS WHAT ALWAYS SEEMS
THE CASE... THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND UPPER YUKON IS NOT FAR BEHIND
IN RECEIVING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FROM THESE TYPE SYSTEMS AND
CAN BE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL FREEZING LEVEL WERE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ALONG THE
WESTERN COAST WITH VALUES ABOVE 10000 FT (NOME AT 10700 FT AND
BETHEL 9900 FT). OTHERWISE VALUES STATEWIDE WERE MUCH BELOW NORMAL
AND BETWEEN 5400 FT AT FAIRBANKS AND 7800 FT AT ANNETTE.

PRECIPITATION... SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE 24 HOURS
ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS    24 HR
======== ====                 == ==    =====
PAKT     KETCHIKAN            PP RZ :   2.55
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PC RG :   2.33
ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PC RG :   1.89
ALSQ9    ALSEK RIVER ABOVE BA PP RG :   1.69
BGLA2    BERING GLACIER RAWS  PP RG :   1.35
PAYA     YAKUTAT              PP RZ :   0.83
PASI     SITKA                PP RZ :   0.80
META2    AK METLAKATLA 6S     PP RZ :   0.61
SRYA2    SITUK RIVER NR YAKUT PP RG :   0.60
PANT     ANNETTE              PP RZ :   0.60
META2    AK METLAKATLA 6S     PP RG :   0.60
SIKA2    SITKA CRN            PP RZ :   0.59
PAHN     HAINES LANDING STRIP PP RZ :   0.57
KKEA2    KAKE RAWS            PP RG :   0.51
SOUA2    SOULE RIVER NEAR HYD PP RG :   0.50
HOZA2    HODZANA RIVER RAWS   PC RG :   0.49
SPPA2    SNETTISHAM POWER PLA PP RZ :   0.45
PAKW     KLAWOCK              PP RZ :   0.42
TUGA2    TURNAGAIN PASS SNOTE PC RM :   0.40
EYKA2    MT EYAK              PC RM :   0.40
BLTA2    BARTLETT COVE        PP RG :   0.40
ALEA2    ALSEK RIVER AT DRY B PC RG :   0.40
HCSA2    HAINES CUSTOMS       PP RZ :   0.38
YESA2    MOUNT ALYESKA SNOTEL PC RM :   0.30
UPPA2    UPPER TSAINA SNOTEL  PC RM :   0.30
THOA2    THORNE BAY RAWS      PC RG :   0.30
SUUA2    SUMMIT LAKE SNOTEL   PC RM :   0.30
SRFA2    STRAWBERRY REEF      PC RM :   0.30
SDIA2    SOUTH DOUGLAS        PC RZ :   0.30
DBA2    COPPER RIVER NR MILL PP RG :   0.30

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AND THE SOUTHERN
SOUTHEAST.

....................................................................

THIS HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZE-UP BEGINS
IN THE FALL.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

ETH




000
AGAK78 PACR 270008
HMDACR

AGAK78 PACR DDHHMM
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY LOW FOR THE STATE.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NEARLY CENTERED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND
EXTENDING WELL INTO EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE
AFFECTING THE STATE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION. AN EMBEDDED LOW
IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REMAINS IN EXISTENCE THANKS IN LARGE PART
TO STRENGTHENING SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH. DEFORMATION ZONE TYPE
PRECIPITATION AND TO SOME EXTENT SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY ALSO GAVE RISE
TO ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IN THE UPPER YUKON ON FRIDAY.

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE BERING HAS BEGUN TO SET UP AN
OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. AS ITS
NAME SUGGEST LITTLE WILL CHANGE THOUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BOXED
IN BY TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND AND EASTERN RUSSIAN. THE
SEMI PERMANENT LOW NEAR THE GULF KEEPS THE SOUTHEAST AND MUCH OF THE
GULF COAST IN STEADY RAIN UNTIL WHAT APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY. A SHORT
WAVE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING WILL ONLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION. FARTHER NORTH OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND LINGERING
SHOWERS REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

IN THE LONGER RANGE... THE NEXT SYSTEM WORTH ANTICIPATING IS A PIECE
OF ENERGY THAT MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE ENTERING THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY EVENING THEN SLIDES DOWN THE WESTERN MAINLAND MONDAY. A WIDE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MAINLAND.

THE FREEZING LEVEL SATURDAY MORNING WAS AGAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE VALUES WERE
AS MUCH AS 4000 FT BELOW NORMAL. VALUES RANGED BETWEEN 8000 AT
ANNETTE TO 4400 FT AT FAIRBANKS. BARROW AGAIN REPORTED HEIGHTS AT THE
SURFACE. THE ONLY LOCATION NEAR NORMAL WAS BETHEL WITH 8400FT.

PRECIPITATION... SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE 24 HOURS
ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS    24 HR
======== ====                 == ==    =====
ESIA2    ESTHER ISLAND        PC RM :   1.30
PAEG     EAGLE                PP RZ :   1.23
ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PP RG :   1.17
TMLA2    TWELVE MILE LAKE     PC RP :   1.00
EGYA2    EAGLE RAWS           PP RG :   1.00
CKNA2    CHICKEN RAWS         PP RG :   0.98
AMCA2    AMERICAN CREEK       PC RZ :   0.94
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PC RG :   0.91
CNAA2    CHISANA SNOTEL       PC RM :   0.80
LLKA2    LONG LAKE SNOTEL     PC RM :   0.70
HATA2    HATCHER PASS         PC R2 :   0.70
FMRA2    FORTYMILE RIVER AT T PC RG :   0.67
TNWA2    AK TOK 70 SE         PP RZ :   0.63
CSNA2    CHISANA RAWS         PC RG :   0.63
CNAA2    CHISANA SNOTEL       PC RZ :   0.62
LRCA2    LITTLE RABBIT CREEK  PC RP :   0.60
KMPA2    KENAI MOOSE REFUGE S PC RM :   0.60
GLPA2    GLEN ALPS HANDAR     PC RP :   0.60
PAHN     HAINES LANDING STRIP PP RZ :   0.55
HCSA2    HAINES CUSTOMS       PP RZ :   0.54
PASI     SITKA                PP RZ :   0.53
PACV     CORDOVA              PP RZ :   0.53
UCEA2    UPPER CHENA DOME SNO PP RG :   0.52
SMTA2    SALMON TROUT RAWS    PC RG :   0.50
HILA2    ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE   PC RM :   0.50
BLTA2    BARTLETT COVE        PP RG :   0.50
ARDA2    ANCHOR RIVER DIVIDE  PC RM :   0.50
CBKA2    CAMPBELL CREEK TRACT PC RG :   0.49
SDFA2    SOLDOTNA RAWS        PP RG :   0.47
PHLA2    PHELAN CREEK NR PAXS PC RG :   0.47
SIKA2    SITKA CRN            PP RZ :   0.46
RBTA2    RABBIT CREEK RAWS    PC RG :   0.46
CBKA2    CAMPBELL CREEK TRACT PP RG :   0.46
NCKA2    NINILCHIK RAWS       PC RG :   0.43
DELA2    DELTA RIVER          PP RG :   0.43

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND.

....................................................................

THIS HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZE-UP BEGINS
IN THE FALL.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

ETH




000
AGAK78 PACR 270008
HMDACR

AGAK78 PACR DDHHMM
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY LOW FOR THE STATE.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH NEARLY CENTERED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND
EXTENDING WELL INTO EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE
AFFECTING THE STATE WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION. AN EMBEDDED LOW
IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REMAINS IN EXISTENCE THANKS IN LARGE PART
TO STRENGTHENING SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH. DEFORMATION ZONE TYPE
PRECIPITATION AND TO SOME EXTENT SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY ALSO GAVE RISE
TO ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IN THE UPPER YUKON ON FRIDAY.

THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN THE BERING HAS BEGUN TO SET UP AN
OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. AS ITS
NAME SUGGEST LITTLE WILL CHANGE THOUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BOXED
IN BY TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND AND EASTERN RUSSIAN. THE
SEMI PERMANENT LOW NEAR THE GULF KEEPS THE SOUTHEAST AND MUCH OF THE
GULF COAST IN STEADY RAIN UNTIL WHAT APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY. A SHORT
WAVE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING WILL ONLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION. FARTHER NORTH OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND LINGERING
SHOWERS REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

IN THE LONGER RANGE... THE NEXT SYSTEM WORTH ANTICIPATING IS A PIECE
OF ENERGY THAT MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE ENTERING THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY EVENING THEN SLIDES DOWN THE WESTERN MAINLAND MONDAY. A WIDE
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MAINLAND.

THE FREEZING LEVEL SATURDAY MORNING WAS AGAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE VALUES WERE
AS MUCH AS 4000 FT BELOW NORMAL. VALUES RANGED BETWEEN 8000 AT
ANNETTE TO 4400 FT AT FAIRBANKS. BARROW AGAIN REPORTED HEIGHTS AT THE
SURFACE. THE ONLY LOCATION NEAR NORMAL WAS BETHEL WITH 8400FT.

PRECIPITATION... SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE 24 HOURS
ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS    24 HR
======== ====                 == ==    =====
ESIA2    ESTHER ISLAND        PC RM :   1.30
PAEG     EAGLE                PP RZ :   1.23
ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PP RG :   1.17
TMLA2    TWELVE MILE LAKE     PC RP :   1.00
EGYA2    EAGLE RAWS           PP RG :   1.00
CKNA2    CHICKEN RAWS         PP RG :   0.98
AMCA2    AMERICAN CREEK       PC RZ :   0.94
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PC RG :   0.91
CNAA2    CHISANA SNOTEL       PC RM :   0.80
LLKA2    LONG LAKE SNOTEL     PC RM :   0.70
HATA2    HATCHER PASS         PC R2 :   0.70
FMRA2    FORTYMILE RIVER AT T PC RG :   0.67
TNWA2    AK TOK 70 SE         PP RZ :   0.63
CSNA2    CHISANA RAWS         PC RG :   0.63
CNAA2    CHISANA SNOTEL       PC RZ :   0.62
LRCA2    LITTLE RABBIT CREEK  PC RP :   0.60
KMPA2    KENAI MOOSE REFUGE S PC RM :   0.60
GLPA2    GLEN ALPS HANDAR     PC RP :   0.60
PAHN     HAINES LANDING STRIP PP RZ :   0.55
HCSA2    HAINES CUSTOMS       PP RZ :   0.54
PASI     SITKA                PP RZ :   0.53
PACV     CORDOVA              PP RZ :   0.53
UCEA2    UPPER CHENA DOME SNO PP RG :   0.52
SMTA2    SALMON TROUT RAWS    PC RG :   0.50
HILA2    ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE   PC RM :   0.50
BLTA2    BARTLETT COVE        PP RG :   0.50
ARDA2    ANCHOR RIVER DIVIDE  PC RM :   0.50
CBKA2    CAMPBELL CREEK TRACT PC RG :   0.49
SDFA2    SOLDOTNA RAWS        PP RG :   0.47
PHLA2    PHELAN CREEK NR PAXS PC RG :   0.47
SIKA2    SITKA CRN            PP RZ :   0.46
RBTA2    RABBIT CREEK RAWS    PC RG :   0.46
CBKA2    CAMPBELL CREEK TRACT PP RG :   0.46
NCKA2    NINILCHIK RAWS       PC RG :   0.43
DELA2    DELTA RIVER          PP RG :   0.43

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND.

....................................................................

THIS HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZE-UP BEGINS
IN THE FALL.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

$$

ETH





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