000
AGAK78 PACR 192259 AAA
HMDACR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...FLOOD POTENTIAL...
THE YUKON RIVER BREAKUP FRONT WAS 15 MILES DOWNSTREAM OF CIRCLE
AT NOON SUNDAY. THE VILLAGE OF CIRCLE FLOODED AS THE SURGE OF WATER
PASSED BY.
SEE THE BREAKUP MAP AND THE BREAKUP SUMMARY FOR CURRENT BREAKUP
ACTIVITY... INCLUDING FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-BREAKUP RELATED FLOODING IS CURRENTLY LOW
FOR THE STATE OF ALASKA.
...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER THE GULF HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED EAST OF
THE STATE. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND
BRING DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER TO MOST OF THE STATE INCLUDING THE
PANHANDLE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A MOIST FLOW
UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE KEEPING RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE WEST
COAST.
INTERIOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH HAVE BEEN NEAR FREEZING THIS
WEEKEND ARE FORECASTED TO RISE TO NEAR 60 BY THURSDAY AND NEAR 70 BY
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD GREATLY INCREASE BREAKUP PROCESSES THROUGHOUT
THE MAINLAND.
SELECTION OF PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4AM:
LOCATION NAME PE TS 24 HR
======== ==== == ==
LLKA2 LONG LAKE SNOTEL PC RM : 1.90
ALEA2 ALSEK RIVER AT DRY B PP RG : 1.43
ALKA2 ALSEK RIVER NR YAKUT PC RG : 1.09
PAYA YAKUTAT PP RZ : 0.75
PAJK JUNEAU WFO PP RZ : 0.74
SHLA2 SHELTER COVE RAWS PC RG : 0.71
PAKT KETCHIKAN PP RZ : 0.65
MCAA2 MONTANA CREEK AT BAC PC RG : 0.62
GDWA2 GIRDWOOD FIRE STATIO PC RG : 0.55
GLNA2 GLENNALLEN KCAM PP RZ : 0.50
...FORECAST PRECIPITATION...
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITAION (.1 TO .5 INCHES) SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD
BE ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA.
...QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS (QPF) GRIDS...
DAY 1-3 QPF GRIDS WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS... WITH
SOME MANUAL EDITS. DAY 5-7 QPF GRIDS WERE BASED ON THE GFS... WITH
OCCASIONAL MANUAL EDITS.
...LONG RANGE...
THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN COAST AND INCREASED CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE THE MAJORITY OF THE MAINLAND AND
THE PANHANDLE.
THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE MAINLAND...
AND
INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
....................................................................
THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED EVERY DAY UNTIL FREEZE UP
BEGINS IN THE FALL. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION
IS AVAILABLE AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP
$$
JEP
000
AGAK78 PACR 182313 AAA
HMDACR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SAT MAY 18 2013
...FLOOD POTENTIAL...
THE ICE BROKE UP AT EAGLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND AN ICE JAM FORMED DOWN
RIVER... RESULTING IN MODERATE FLOODING IN EAGLE. THE ICE JAM HAS
RELEASED AND WATER LEVELS DROPPED AT EAGLE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR CICLE. SEE THE BREAKUP MAP AND THE BREAKUP SUMMARY FOR
OTHER AREAS OF BREAKUP ACTIVITY... INCLUDING FLOODING.
THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-BREAKUP RELATED FLOODING IS CURRENTLY LOW FOR
THE STATE OF ALASKA.
...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE GULF OF ALASKA
SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHCENTRAL
WHILE RAIN FELL ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH GULF COAST AND THE
SOUTHEAST. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE YUKON AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE AS WELL AS SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA SHOULD SEE
DRY WEATHER MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE WEST COAST SHOULD SEE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4AM MAY 18:
LOCATION NAME PE TS 24 HR
======== ==== == ==
CBHA2 CORDOVA BOAT HARBOR PC RP : 3.39
WHMA2 WHITTIER MAWS PC RZ : 2.91
ESIA2 ESTHER ISLAND PC RM : 2.70
PAYA YAKUTAT PP RZ : 2.34
AYTA2 ALYESKA WEATHER TOP PP RZ : 1.84
TTKA2 TATITLEK PC RM : 1.80
AYMA2 ALYESKA WEATHER MID PP RZ : 1.51
PACV CORDOVA PP RZ : 1.39
AYBA2 ALYESKA WEATHER BASE PP RZ : 1.33
INPA2 INDIAN PASS SNOTEL PC RM : 1.00
HATA2 HATCHER PASS PC R2 : 0.80
ERPA2 EAGLE RIVER NATURE C PC RP : 0.80
GDWA2 GIRDWOOD FIRE STATIO PC RG : 0.76
PATK TALKEETNA PP RZ : 0.74
TUGA2 TURNAGAIN PASS SNOTE PC RM : 0.70
RHKA2 RICHARDSON HWY AT KE PP RZ : 0.70
LRCA2 LITTLE RABBIT CREEK PC RP : 0.70
PAMR MERRILL FIELD PP RZ : 0.69
CBKA2 CAMPBELL CREEK TRACT PP RG : 0.61
WLWA2 WILLOW CREEK NR CANY PP RG : 0.59
GRAA2 GRANITE CREEK RAWS PC RG : 0.56
PAKT KETCHIKAN PP RZ : 0.55
LSUA2 LITTLE SU BLW HATCHE PC RP : 0.50
...FORECAST PRECIPITATION...
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITAION (0.5-1 INCH) SATURDAY WILL BE ALONG THE
EASTERN NORTH GULF COAST. ON SUNDAY THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
...QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS (QPF) GRIDS...
DAY 1-3 QPF GRIDS WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS... WITH
SOME MANUAL EDITS. THE DAY 5-7 QPF GRIDS WERE BASED ON THE GFS...
WITH OCCASIONAL MANUAL EDITS.
...LONG RANGE...
THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN COAST AND INCREASED CHANCES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE THE MAJORITY OF THE MAINLAND AND
THE PANHANDLE.
THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE MAINLAND... AND
INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
....................................................................
THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED EVERY DAY UNTIL FREEZE UP
BEGINS IN THE FALL. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION
IS AVAILABLE AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP
$$
JEP
000
AGAK78 PACR 172212 AAA
HMDACR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT FRI MAY 17 2013
...FLOOD POTENTIAL...
THE ICE BROKE UP AT EAGLE OVERNIGHT AND AN ICE JAM FORMED DOWN
RIVER... RESULTING IN MODERATE FLOODING IN EAGLE. THE ICE JAM HAS
RELEASED AND WATER LEVELS ARE NOW FALLING AT EAGLE. A FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR ICE JAM FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT
TODAY FOR THE TANANA RIVER NEAR SALCHA. SEE THE BREAKUP MAP AND THE
BREAKUP SUMMARY FOR OTHER AREAS OF BREAKUP ACTIVITY... INCLUDING
FLOODING.
THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-BREAKUP RELATED FLOODING IS CURRENTLY LOW FOR
THE STATE OF ALASKA.
...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF BARROW... WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH
SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND... IS THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR
TODAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS
BRINGING AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS INTO THE STATE... AS THIS AIR
MASS MOVES SOUTH AND EAST IT WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4AM MAY 17:
LOCATION NAME PE TS 24 HR
======== ==== == ==
WHMA2 WHITTIER MAWS PC RZ : 3.31
PATO PORTAGE GLACIER PP RZ : 2.10
PSJA2 PORT SAN JUAN PC RM : 2.00
PAWD SEWARD PP RZ : 1.72
TTKA2 TATITLEK PC RM : 1.70
ESIA2 ESTHER ISLAND PC RM : 1.70
CBHA2 CORDOVA BOAT HARBOR PC RP : 1.42
PEDA2 PEDERSEN LAGOON PP RG : 1.26
FOJA2 FOURTH OF JULY CREEK PC RP : 1.16
SRFA2 STRAWBERRY REEF PC RM : 0.90
EXGA2 EXIT GLACIER PC RM : 0.90
PAYA YAKUTAT PP RZ : 0.80
PASO SELDOVIA PP RZ : 0.71
YESA2 MOUNT ALYESKA SNOTEL PC RM : 0.70
WOWA2 WILLOW RAWS PP RG : 0.70
PAVW VALDEZ PP RZ : 0.66
PAEN KENAI PP RZ : 0.61
BLSA2 BENTALIT LODGE HANDA PP RG : 0.60
PACV CORDOVA PP RZ : 0.56
GDWA2 GIRDWOOD FIRE STN PC RG : 0.55
SDFA2 SOLDOTNA RAWS PP RG : 0.54
GDWA2 GIRDWOOD FIRE STN PP RG : 0.54
PATK TALKEETNA PP RZ : 0.52
...FORECAST PRECIPITATION...
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITAION (0.5-4 INCHES) FRIDAY WILL BE ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST. ON SATURDAY THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT
TO THE EASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
...QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS (QPF) GRIDS...
DAY 1-4 QPF GRIDS WERE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS... WITH
SOME MANUAL EDITS. THE DAY 5-7 QPF GRIDS WERE BASED ON THE GFS...
WITH OCCASIONAL MANUAL EDITS.
...LONG RANGE...
THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHWEST MAINLAND AND INCREASED
CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN MAINLAND.
THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE MAINLAND... AND
INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEAST
ALASKA.
....................................................................
THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED EVERY DAY UNTIL FREEZE UP
BEGINS IN THE FALL. A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION
IS AVAILABLE AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP
$$
ACL
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