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000
AGXX40 KNHC 181844
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
244 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF

LOW CENTER EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR 29.5N86.7W
WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY S THEN SW TO NEAR 22.5N94.5W...AND WARM
FRONT FROM LOW EWD ACROSS N FL. BUOYS OFF OF AL/MS/SE LA COASTAL
WATERS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING 20-25 KT ALL MORNING AND GUSTING
NEAR 30 KT...WHILE A 1526Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 30 KT ON EDGE OF PASS
JUST TO THE E OF THESE BUOYS. HAVE MAINTAINED THE GALE WARNING
FOR NW QUAD OF LOW 18-00Z AS GFS 30M WINDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MINIMAL GALES...AND SREF CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODERATE CHANCES
FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES THROUGH 03Z. SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF FRONT
HAS WEAKENED PAST FEW HOURS..BUT REGIONAL RADARS SHOW LINE OF
STRONG TSTMS MOVING ONTO W COAST OF FL AND TAMPA BAY WITH A MESO
LOW SUGGESTED EARLIER. LOW TO SHIFT SLOWLY OUT THE E-NE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INLAND BY AROUND 21Z...WITH STRONG SLY FLOW 20-25 KT
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT N OF 27N. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
FRONTAL POSITIONING AND TIMING OF FRONT BUT HANDLING LOW DIFFERENT
AS LLVL VORT MORE ELONGATED BY UKMET AND LESS CONSOLIDATED WITH
ECMWF. NWLY FLOW 20-25 KT ON BACK SIDE OF LOW AND FRONT TO
PREVAIL ACROSS NE GULF THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN SEAS
AROUND 8 FT AND HIGHER BEFORE FRONT CLEARS BASIN TO THE SE AND LOW
SHIFTS INTO ATLC. A TRANQUIL TREND WILL THEN ENSUE THROUGH TUE HAS
HIGH PRES SETTLES INTO THE N AND NW GULF AND WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS

LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE TRADES PREVAIL W OF 80W ATTM AS GULFMEX
FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCES TOWARD BASIN. ELSEWHERE...1030 HIGH NE OF
BERMUDA PRODUCING STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS ATLC S OF 24N AND
INTO E 2/3RD OF CARIB...WHERE BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADES
PREVAIL. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE EVENING THEN
BEGIN TO SETTLE SE AND WEAKEN...WITH GRADIENT WINDS SLOWLY
WEAKENING THROUGH SUN. SUFFICIENT GRADIENT EXPECTED TONIGHT TO
YIELD NOCTURNAL MAX TO 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA...BUT WILL WEAKEN
THEREAFTER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. GULFMEX FRONT TO MOVE SE
THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL SAT AFTERNOON AND REACH TO ALONG ABOUT 20N
BY LATE SUN WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SEAS EXPECTED INSIDE CARIB BEHIND FRONT.

MIXED ELY TRADE WIND SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NE SWELL TO MIX ACROSS
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUN TO KEEP SEAS 8-9 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

ATLANTIC RIDGE OPENING UP INTO SE U.S. AHEAD OF GULFMEX COLD FRONT
AND LOW...WITH ZONE OF STRONG ESE TRADES 20-25 KT S OF 24N PER
RECENT ASCAT PASS. ENE TRADE WIND SWELL AND NEW PULSE OF LONG
PERIOD NE SWELL PRODUCING SEAS 8-9 FT ACROSS MOST OF AREA E OF 72W
ATTM. GULFMEX LOW TO EXIT OFF GEORGIA COAST LATE SAT AND MOVE
SLOWLY NE THROUGH FIRST PART OF WEEK...WITH STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS
NW SEMICIRCLE TO GENERATE LARGE SEAS OFF SE COAST OF U.S.
EXTENDING DOWN INTO FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS...AND COULD LINE UP TO
SEND SWELL BEHIND BAHAMAS AND INTO SE FL WATERS MON. GALES
EXPECTED SUN ACROSS COASTAL WATERS. MODELS DIFFERING IN TIMING OF
LOW BEYOND SUN...WITH GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN OTHER GLOBAL MODELS
AND HAVE TRIED TO GO CLOSER TO GEFS MEAN. SLY FLOW 20-25 KT
EXPECTED AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF 26-27N SAT AND SUN
AND SHIFTING E OF 70W MON. N TO NE FLOW MAY INCREASE TO 30 KT
OFFSHORE OF JAX AND COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON...BUT
OTHERWISE...20-25 KT OF WRAP AROUND FLOW EXPECTED TO SPREAD S
ALONG FL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MON.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 180856 AAA
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
455 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

UPDATED TO ADD MENTION OF SWELLS TO SW N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC SECTIONS AS REPORTED IN LATEST
OBSERVATIONS...AND TO INCLUDE MENTION OF LATEST DETECTED
LIGHTNING WITH GULF TSTMS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR WAVES
USED AN EVEN BLEND OF OFFICIAL WITH 00 UTC MWW3 AND NWPS WAVE
PARAMETERS. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE
THEREAFTER.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO A 1012 MB LOW AT
28N88W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO NEAR 24N91W. HIGH
PRES IS PRESENT TO ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF. LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND NWS MOSAIC RADAR ANIMATION SHOW A LARGE AREA OF
NUMEROUS STRONG TSTMS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONTS COVERING
THE AREA FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 83W-89W. A VIGOROUS UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NW GULF SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRES.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT E OF THE TROUGH WILL ASSIST IN PROLONGING THE
TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH TODAY AS IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF. LATEST LIGHTNING DETECTION DATA SHOWS FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TSTM ACTIVITY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 21N AND E OF 92W.
BOTH BUOY AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0346 UTC INDICATE STRONG NE-E
WINDS N OF THE WARM FRONT...AND STRONG NE WINDS W OF THE COLD
FRONT TO 92W. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF THE
COLD FRONT. BUOYS AND A FEW SHIPS SHOW SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN THE NE
GULF N OF THE WARM FRONT. A TIGHTENING PRES GRADEINT BETWEEN
HIGH PRES OVER THE SE U.S AND THE LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THE NLY WINDS TO THE NW OF THE LOW WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE OVER A PORTION OF THE NW QUADRANT
OF THE LOW TODAY. LATEST MEAN GFS GALE FORCE PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST 20 PERCENT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN GULF AREA BETWEEN THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND MOBILE ALABAMA AREA FOR TODAY. AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT SLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20-30 KT
RANGE TODAY WITH PROBABLE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MAINLY
ATTRIBUTED TO THE GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE STRONG TSTM ACTIVITY
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY. SEAS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO AROUND 10 FT.

THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW PRES EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR 29N87W BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND COLD FRONT FROM LOW TO
25N90W AND TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE LOW WILL MOVE ENE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON REACHING NEAR 30N86W THIS EVENING WITH THE
COLD FRONT TO 25N86W TO NEAR 21N92W. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER A PORTION OF THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW TODAY...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NE GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND COLD FRONT...AND DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING. BY SAT
MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WITH THE COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SSW OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD AWAY FROM FLORIDA DURING SAT AFTERNOON PUSHING
THE FRONT E OF THE AREA. IN ITS WAKE...A RIDGE WILL THEN EXTEND
ACROSS THE GULF SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR WAVES
USED AND EVEN BLEND OF OFFICIAL WITH 00 UTC MWW3 AND NWPS WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE 0202 ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT S OF ABOUT 14N
BETWEEN 72W AND 77W WITH A SMALL POCKET OF 25-30 KT VERY NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE...NE-E WINDS ARE IN THE MODERATE TO
FRESH RANGE...EXCEPT W OF 83W WHERE E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE
NOTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER E WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE S OF 18N AND W OF 85W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. HIGH
PRES N OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SUN
AS A WEAK LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN MON AND TUE. THE E WINDS OF 20-25 KT S OF 18N W OF 85W
WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR WAVES
USED AND EVEN BLEND OF OFFICIAL WITH 00 UTC MWW3 AND NWPS WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION.

THE 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
31N74W TO NEAR VERO BEACH FLORIDA...WHILE HIGH PRES IS PRESENT
ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
THIS MORNING. THE 0206 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A LARGE SWATH OF
STRONG NE-E WINDS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT W OF ABOUT 76W. SEAS
THERE HAVE REACH TO A MAX OF 9 FT. NE-E SWELLS WITH SEAS IN THE
7-9 FT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER MUCH OF THE EASTERN WATERS
INTO SUN BEFORE SUBSIDING.

LOW PRES OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE FAR NW WATERS SUN INTO MON
THEN DIMINISHING MON NIGHT AND TUE.

NE SWELLS WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE SUBSIDING.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY...
     GALE WARNING N OF 28N E OF 89W.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 27N
     GALE WARNING TODAY.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 180800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR WAVES
USED AN EVEN BLEND OF OFFICIAL WITH 00 UTC MWW3 AND NWPS WAVE
PARAMETERS. AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE
THEREAFTER.

A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO A 1012 MB LOW AT
28N88W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO NEAR 24N91W. HIGH
PRES IS PRESENT TO ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF. LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND NWS MOSAIC RADAR ANIMATION SHOW A LARGE AREA OF
NUMEROUS STRONG TSTMS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONTS COVERING
THE AREA FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 83W-89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 21N AND E OF 92W. BOTH BUOY AND
AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0346 UTC INDICATE STRONG NE-E WINDS N OF THE
WARM FRONT...AND STRONG NE WINDS W OF THE COLD FRONT TO 92W. FRESH
TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE W OF THE COLD FRONT. BUOYS AND
A FEW SHIPS SHOW SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN THE NE GULF N OF THE WARM
FRONT. A TIGHTENING PRES GRADEINT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE SE
U.S AND THE LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE NLY WINDS TO
THE NW OF THE LOW WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH  GALE FORCE OVER A
PORTION OF THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW TODAY. LATEST MEAN GFS GALE
FORCE PROBABILITIES SUGGEST 20 PERCENT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN GULF
AREA BETWEEN THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE AND MOBILE ALABAMA AREA FOR
TODAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
20-30 KT RANGE TODAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE PROBABLE
BUILDING SEAS THERE TO AROUND 10 FT.

THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW PRES EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR 29N87W BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND COLD FRONT FROM LOW TO
25N90W AND TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE LOW WILL MOVE ENE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON REACHING NEAR 30N86W THIS EVENING WITH THE
COLD FRONT TO 25N86W TO NEAR 21N92W. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER A PORTION OF THE NW QUADRANT OF THE LOW TODAY...WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE NE GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
COLD FRONT. BY SAT MORNING...THE LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSW OVER THE FAR EASTERN
GULF. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AWAY FROM FLORIDA DURING SAT
AFTERNOON PUSHING THE FRONT E OF THE AREA. IN ITS WAKE...A RIDGE
WILL THEN EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR WAVES
USED AND EVEN BLEND OF OFFICIAL WITH 00 UTC MWW3 AND NWPS WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE 0202 ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT S OF ABOUT 14N
BETWEEN 72W AND 77W WITH A SMALL POCKET OF 25-30 KT VERY NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE...NE-E WINDS ARE IN THE MODERATE TO
FRESH RANGE...EXCEPT W OF 83W WHERE E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE
NOTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER E WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE S OF 18N AND W OF 85W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. HIGH
PRES N OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SUN
AS A WEAK LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN MON AND TUE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR WAVES
USED AND EVEN BLEND OF OFFICIAL WITH 00 UTC MWW3 AND NWPS WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION.

THE 06 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
31N74W TO NEAR VERO BEACH FLORIDA...WHILE HIGH PRES IS PRESENT
ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
THIS MORNING. THE 0206 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A LARGE SWATH OF
STRONG NE-E WINDS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT W OF ABOUT 76W. SEAS
THERE HAVE REACH TO A MAX OF 9 FT.

LOW PRES OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE FAR NW WATERS SUN INTO MON
THEN DIMINISHING MON NIGHT AND TUE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY...
     GALE WARNING TODAY.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
     GALE WARNING TODAY.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE/GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 171829
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
229 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NEAR FORT
MYERS FLORIDA TO 26N87W TO 25N94W WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT N AS A
WEAK WARM FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED
JUST N OF FRONT AND E OF 90W PER SURFACE OBS AND SCATTEROMETER
DATA WITH SEAS OF 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH FRI AS PRES GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT ALSO BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 10-11 FT. BASED
ON COMPUTER GUIDANCE...AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY S OF THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT INTO
FRI. A 1010 MB LOW PRES WILL BE NEAR 29N88W ON FRI AT 1200 UTC
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO 25N90W TO NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO. THEN...THE LOW PRES WILL TRACK NE AND MOVE INLAND
WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO NE
YUCATAN PENINSULA BY FRI NIGHT...AND WILL BE E OF AREA BY SAT.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW CENTER. IN
FACT...CONVECTION IS ALREADY ON INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.
CURRENTLY...THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF GALE HAVE INCREASED TO 30
PERCENT ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL AND NE GULF WHILE THE GEFS
PROBABILITIES REACH 20-25 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRES. SO...THE DECISION WAS MADE TO ISSUE A
GALE WARNING FOR THE NE GULF FROM FRI AT 1200 UTC THROUGH SAT AT
0000 UTC. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THE NW
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER WITH LIKELY GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WINDS
OVER THE NE GULF AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES. THIS WILL BE A
SHORT-LIVED GALE FORCE EVENT AND WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THE 1454 ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. HIGH
PRES N OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SAT
AND SUN AS A WEAK LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

A A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N72W TO NEAR WEST
PALM BEACH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH FRI. THE LOW PRES FORECAST TO DEVELOP FRI IN THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA LATE SAT WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING JUST E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SUN. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 31N74W TO EASTERN CUBA LATE SUN.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30 KT ACROSS THE NW WATERS BY
LATE SUN AS PRES TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 31N75W
AND HIGH PRES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF U.S.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 170710
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
310 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE OBS AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MODERATE EARLY
WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF FRESH
WINDS IN NE PORTION NEAR BIG BEND OF FLORIDA. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO NORTHERN YUCATAN. THE FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED IN THE NE GULF FRI. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY FRI AT 1200 UTC
AND ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS...FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE NE
YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SAT AT 1200 UTC. THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WITH
BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRES N OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN FRESH TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN AS A WEAK LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS
THE SW ATLC WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT. GENTLE E-SE WINDS
PREVAIL ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N
AS A WARM FRONT REACHING FROM 31N78W TO 29N81W BY FRI MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LESSENS AFTERWARD. THE LOW PRES
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FRI IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA SAT MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SE GULF OF MEXICO.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SUN. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 31N71W TO SE FLORIDA LATE SUN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 161809
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
209 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT LOW CONFIDENCE FRI AND SAT.

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION BASED ON LATEST SURFACE
AND SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENTLY...GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS
ARE SEEN PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASSES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE GULF WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. A PAIR OF ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED
SEAS UP TO 11-12 FT BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST
TO BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WEAK WARM FRONT THU. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AFTER THU
HOWEVER. THE GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE NE GULF
NEAR 28N87W BY FRI MORNING WHICH WILL MOVE NE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
SW N ATLC THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS MUCH STRONGER
LOW DEVELOPMENT SE OF NEW ORLEANS FRI MORNING WHICH TRACKS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA THROUGH SAT. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY
FRI AT 1200 UTC AND ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS...FROM SW FLORIDA
TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SAT AT 1200 UTC. THE FORECAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE
TRACK AND STRENGHT OF THE LOW PRES. THE NEW RUN OF THE GFS
CONTINUES TO CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW CENTER OVER THE NE
GULF. SO...USED A BLEND OF 12Z RUN OF THE GFS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. FOR NOW...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH
BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW COLD FRONT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRES N OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. THE
PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN AS A WEAK LOW PRES
MOVES ACROSS THE SW ATLC WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AS A
RESULT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED N OF 29N W OF THE FRONT TO NEAR 78W PER
THE 1426 UTC ASCAT PASS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N TO NEAR 73W. LIGHT TO GENTLE E-SE
WINDS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY FROM 31N73W TO 27N79W TO 25N80W
BY THU MORNING...THEN MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT REACHING FROM 31N78W
TO 29N81W BY FRI MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST LESSENS
AFTERWARD. THE LOW PRES FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO BY THE COMPUTER MODELS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA BY
SAT MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRONT ACROSS THE N WATERS BY SUN.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 31N71W TO SE FLORIDA BY LATE
SUN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





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