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000
AGXX40 KNHC 291801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 1018 MB HIGH IN
W CENTRAL GULF TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SINKING S INTO GULF COASTAL PLAINS WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH SINKING
S AROUND 28N THIS AFTERNOON WITH WLY FLOW TO 15 KT AND KICKING UP
SEAS 4-5 FT IN BIG BEND BASIN. ANOMALOUS JULY MID-UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS ERN U.S. TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BEYOND WED. CURRENT FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THU AFTER PUSHING THROUGH THE NE GULF. W
TO NW FLOW AROUND 15 KT ACROSS BIG BEND REGION WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LATE EVENING PULSE OF NE WINDS
15-20 KT OFF W AND NW COAST OF YUCATAN DAILY. MODELS IN GENERALLY
AGREEMENT ON FEATURES. GFS SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT/8 FT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS BLENDED
WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE ATLC RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TODAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE SE U.S.
COAST FRONTAL SYSTEM NUDGES ATLC HIGH NNE...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SINK S THROUGH THE NE GULF BEFORE DISSIPATING THU.
WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS S CENTRAL CARIB OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND THEN REMAIN FRESH AND PEAK AROUND 25 KT AT NIGHT THU
AND FRI NIGHTS. INTERESTS ACROSS E AND NE CARIB SHOULD BEGIN TO
FOCUS ON TROPICAL LOW ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC ALONG ABOUT 40W THIS
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY GAINING BETTER ORGANIZATION. GLOBAL MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A WNW TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE NE CARIB
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL AND
CLOSEST TO THE FORECAST AGREED ON WITH NHC/WPC COORDINATION. STILL
EARLY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED WITH
OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND REALIGN SW TO NE THROUGH DAY 3 AS
SE U.S. COAST FRONTAL SYSTEM NUDGES THE ATLC HIGH NE...WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO FAR NW WATERS BY THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY...SW FLOW 15-20 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW WATERS N OF
28-29N W OF 73W AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT THROUGH WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIE WITHIN 240 NM SE
OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS NW WATERS. THE FRONT
WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED...THEN RETROGRADE WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI BACK ACROSS NW WATERS AND ACROSS FLORIDA AS A LOW
ALONG THE FRONT LIFTS N FROM NE FL AND OUT OF REGION. MODERATE
E-SE TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS S AND SE PORTIONS...WITH SEAS AOB 4
FT THROUGH THU. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TROPICAL LOW ALONG 40W THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEXT 24-48
HOURS...WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POSSIBLE. THE GFS AND CMC
ARE THE ONLY GLOBAL MODELS THAT HOLD ONTO A CLOSED LOW CENTER AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC SAT NIGHT/SUN. THE FORECAST
AGREED ON DURING NHC/WPC COORDINATION WAS CLOSEST TO THE GFS
FORECAST...SO IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS HERE AS WELL AS
DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD WHEN THERE ARE NO NOTABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND WINDS/SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT/8 FT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER/STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 291801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 1018 MB HIGH IN
W CENTRAL GULF TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SINKING S INTO GULF COASTAL PLAINS WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH SINKING
S AROUND 28N THIS AFTERNOON WITH WLY FLOW TO 15 KT AND KICKING UP
SEAS 4-5 FT IN BIG BEND BASIN. ANOMALOUS JULY MID-UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS ERN U.S. TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BEYOND WED. CURRENT FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THU AFTER PUSHING THROUGH THE NE GULF. W
TO NW FLOW AROUND 15 KT ACROSS BIG BEND REGION WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH LATE EVENING PULSE OF NE WINDS
15-20 KT OFF W AND NW COAST OF YUCATAN DAILY. MODELS IN GENERALLY
AGREEMENT ON FEATURES. GFS SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT/8 FT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS BLENDED
WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE ATLC RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TODAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE SE U.S.
COAST FRONTAL SYSTEM NUDGES ATLC HIGH NNE...ALLOWING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO SINK S THROUGH THE NE GULF BEFORE DISSIPATING THU.
WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS S CENTRAL CARIB OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND THEN REMAIN FRESH AND PEAK AROUND 25 KT AT NIGHT THU
AND FRI NIGHTS. INTERESTS ACROSS E AND NE CARIB SHOULD BEGIN TO
FOCUS ON TROPICAL LOW ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC ALONG ABOUT 40W THIS
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY GAINING BETTER ORGANIZATION. GLOBAL MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A WNW TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE NE CARIB
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL AND
CLOSEST TO THE FORECAST AGREED ON WITH NHC/WPC COORDINATION. STILL
EARLY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED WITH
OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND REALIGN SW TO NE THROUGH DAY 3 AS
SE U.S. COAST FRONTAL SYSTEM NUDGES THE ATLC HIGH NE...WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO FAR NW WATERS BY THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY...SW FLOW 15-20 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW WATERS N OF
28-29N W OF 73W AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT THROUGH WED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIE WITHIN 240 NM SE
OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS NW WATERS. THE FRONT
WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED...THEN RETROGRADE WED NIGHT
THROUGH FRI BACK ACROSS NW WATERS AND ACROSS FLORIDA AS A LOW
ALONG THE FRONT LIFTS N FROM NE FL AND OUT OF REGION. MODERATE
E-SE TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS S AND SE PORTIONS...WITH SEAS AOB 4
FT THROUGH THU. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TROPICAL LOW ALONG 40W THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEXT 24-48
HOURS...WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POSSIBLE. THE GFS AND CMC
ARE THE ONLY GLOBAL MODELS THAT HOLD ONTO A CLOSED LOW CENTER AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC SAT NIGHT/SUN. THE FORECAST
AGREED ON DURING NHC/WPC COORDINATION WAS CLOSEST TO THE GFS
FORECAST...SO IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS HERE AS WELL AS
DURING THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD WHEN THERE ARE NO NOTABLE
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND WINDS/SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT/8 FT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER/STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 290717
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND

WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS WNW TO ESE ACROSS BASIN CENTERED ON 1018 MB
HIGH IN W CENTRAL GULF. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING S INTO GULF
COASTAL PLAINS WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH SINKING S INTO IMMEDIATE NE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WLY FLOW TO ITS S 15-20 KT AND
KICKING UP SEAS 4-5 FT IN BIG BEND BASIN. ACTIVE EVENING CNVTN HAS
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVED AWAY FROM SUPPORTING UPPER
TROUGH DYNAMICS AND INTO NWLY SHEAR. ANOMALOUS JULY MID-UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS ERN U.S. TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...AND GRADUALLYWEAKEN
BEYOND WED. CURRENT FRONT WILL STALL ALONG ABOUT 29N TONIGHT THEN
WEAKEN AND SINK SLIGHTLY S THROUGH WED BEFORE DRIFTING N ALONG THE
COAST WED NIGHT. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH TO PUSH S AND INTO SE GULF
ALONG ABUT 26N BY WED-THU. W TO NW FLOW AROUND 15 KT ACROSS BIG
BEND REGION WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK WITH LATE EVENING PULSE OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT OFF W AND NW
COAST OF YUCATAN DAILY. MODELS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT ON FEATURES
WITH ECMWF AND UKMET A BIT FARTHER S AND SE WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH
AND FRONT...AND HAVE LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS THROUGH THU THEN GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

LATEST TROPICAL WAVE HAS SHIFTED WWD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND
LEAVING FRESH FLOW ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS PER LATEST ASCAT
PASSES...WHERE PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 5 FT POSSIBLY TO 6. ATLC RIDGE
NOSING INTO E APPROACH TO STRAITS OF FL AND PRODUCING SUFFICIENT
PRES GRADIENT FOR WINDS TO 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA ATTM WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 FT SHORTLY. ATLC RIDGE TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS E COAST FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
LOW NUDGE ATLC HIGH NNE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO E AND NE
GULF. WINDS AND SEAS TO THUS SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS S CENTRAL CARIB
NEXT 48 HOURS AND THEN REMAIN FRESH AND PEAK AROUND 25 KT AT NIGHT
THU AND FRI NIGHTS. INTERESTS ACROSS E AND NE CARIB SHOULD BEGIN
TO FOCUS ON TROPICAL LOW ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC ALONG ABOUT 37W THIS
MORNING...GRADUALLY GAINING BETTER ORGANIZATION. GLOBAL MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A WNW TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE NE CARIB
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH GFS AND UKMET MOST AGGRESSIVE. GFS
REMAINS SLOWEST OF MODELS AND MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPMENT...WHILE UKMET A BIT FASTER...AND THE WEAKEST SOLUTION
OF ECMWF SLIGHTLY MORE WWD AND A BIT FASTER THAN UKMET. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRY TO CREATE GRIDS BASED ON A UKMET-ECMWF
CONSENSUS...BUT DIFFICULT TO DO WITH AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IN GFE.
06Z SHIPS GUIDANCE JUST CAME IN RELATIVELY AGGRESSIVE...AND A
TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS A GOOD CHANCE WITHIN 24 HOURS...REACHING
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THU NIGHT AND ENTERING NE CARIB FRI NIGHT-
EARLY SAT. NW CURVATURE OF SYSTEM BY GFS BEING INFLUENCED BY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT...AND PREFER UKMET SOLUTION ATTM. STILL EARLY FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

ATLC RIDGE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND REALIGN SW TO NE THROUGH DAY 3 AS
E COAST FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LOW NUDGE ATLC HIGH
NE...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO FAR NW WATERS THIS
EVENING-TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...SW FLOW 15-20 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
NW WATERS N OF 28-29N W OF 75W AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT THROUGH WED. FRONT TO STALL AND WEAKEN BY 48 HRS
FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THEN DRIFT VERY SLOWLY W WED-
FRI BACK ACROSS NW WATERS AND ACROSS FLORIDA AS E COAST LOW LIFTS
N AND OUT OF REGION. MODERATE E-SE TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS S AND
SE PORTIONS...WITH SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH THU. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...TROPICAL LOW ALONG 37W EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE LOOKING MORE LIKELY ATTM.
CURRENTLY PREFER A ECMWF-UKMET CONSENSUS WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING
ACROSS NE CARIB...AND GFS SEEMS TO REFLECT MORE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AND THUS PREMATURE RECURVATURE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 290717
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF BLEND

WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS WNW TO ESE ACROSS BASIN CENTERED ON 1018 MB
HIGH IN W CENTRAL GULF. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING S INTO GULF
COASTAL PLAINS WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH SINKING S INTO IMMEDIATE NE
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WLY FLOW TO ITS S 15-20 KT AND
KICKING UP SEAS 4-5 FT IN BIG BEND BASIN. ACTIVE EVENING CNVTN HAS
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVED AWAY FROM SUPPORTING UPPER
TROUGH DYNAMICS AND INTO NWLY SHEAR. ANOMALOUS JULY MID-UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS ERN U.S. TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK...AND GRADUALLYWEAKEN
BEYOND WED. CURRENT FRONT WILL STALL ALONG ABOUT 29N TONIGHT THEN
WEAKEN AND SINK SLIGHTLY S THROUGH WED BEFORE DRIFTING N ALONG THE
COAST WED NIGHT. PRE FRONTAL TROUGH TO PUSH S AND INTO SE GULF
ALONG ABUT 26N BY WED-THU. W TO NW FLOW AROUND 15 KT ACROSS BIG
BEND REGION WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON TODAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK WITH LATE EVENING PULSE OF NE WINDS 15-20 KT OFF W AND NW
COAST OF YUCATAN DAILY. MODELS IN GENERALLY AGREEMENT ON FEATURES
WITH ECMWF AND UKMET A BIT FARTHER S AND SE WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH
AND FRONT...AND HAVE LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS THROUGH THU THEN GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

LATEST TROPICAL WAVE HAS SHIFTED WWD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND
LEAVING FRESH FLOW ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS PER LATEST ASCAT
PASSES...WHERE PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND 5 FT POSSIBLY TO 6. ATLC RIDGE
NOSING INTO E APPROACH TO STRAITS OF FL AND PRODUCING SUFFICIENT
PRES GRADIENT FOR WINDS TO 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA ATTM WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 FT SHORTLY. ATLC RIDGE TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS E COAST FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
LOW NUDGE ATLC HIGH NNE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO E AND NE
GULF. WINDS AND SEAS TO THUS SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS S CENTRAL CARIB
NEXT 48 HOURS AND THEN REMAIN FRESH AND PEAK AROUND 25 KT AT NIGHT
THU AND FRI NIGHTS. INTERESTS ACROSS E AND NE CARIB SHOULD BEGIN
TO FOCUS ON TROPICAL LOW ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC ALONG ABOUT 37W THIS
MORNING...GRADUALLY GAINING BETTER ORGANIZATION. GLOBAL MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A WNW TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE NE CARIB
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH GFS AND UKMET MOST AGGRESSIVE. GFS
REMAINS SLOWEST OF MODELS AND MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
DEVELOPMENT...WHILE UKMET A BIT FASTER...AND THE WEAKEST SOLUTION
OF ECMWF SLIGHTLY MORE WWD AND A BIT FASTER THAN UKMET. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRY TO CREATE GRIDS BASED ON A UKMET-ECMWF
CONSENSUS...BUT DIFFICULT TO DO WITH AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IN GFE.
06Z SHIPS GUIDANCE JUST CAME IN RELATIVELY AGGRESSIVE...AND A
TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS A GOOD CHANCE WITHIN 24 HOURS...REACHING
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THU NIGHT AND ENTERING NE CARIB FRI NIGHT-
EARLY SAT. NW CURVATURE OF SYSTEM BY GFS BEING INFLUENCED BY RAPID
DEVELOPMENT...AND PREFER UKMET SOLUTION ATTM. STILL EARLY FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

ATLC RIDGE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND REALIGN SW TO NE THROUGH DAY 3 AS
E COAST FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LOW NUDGE ATLC HIGH
NE...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO FAR NW WATERS THIS
EVENING-TONIGHT. CURRENTLY...SW FLOW 15-20 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
NW WATERS N OF 28-29N W OF 75W AND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY E AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT THROUGH WED. FRONT TO STALL AND WEAKEN BY 48 HRS
FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THEN DRIFT VERY SLOWLY W WED-
FRI BACK ACROSS NW WATERS AND ACROSS FLORIDA AS E COAST LOW LIFTS
N AND OUT OF REGION. MODERATE E-SE TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS S AND
SE PORTIONS...WITH SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH THU. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...TROPICAL LOW ALONG 37W EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE LOOKING MORE LIKELY ATTM.
CURRENTLY PREFER A ECMWF-UKMET CONSENSUS WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING
ACROSS NE CARIB...AND GFS SEEMS TO REFLECT MORE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AND THUS PREMATURE RECURVATURE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 281705
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM SW FL TO THE NE TX COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRES CENTERS FORMING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE
RIDGE AXIS...BUT MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT...NEARLY
STALL ON TUE...WITH REMNANTS OF THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER THE E
GULF THROUGH WED EVENING. WESTERLY 10-15 KT WINDS WILL PRECEDE
THE FRONT OVER THE N-CENTRAL AND NE GULF TODAY THROUGH LATE
TUE...BECOMING NW-N AT 10 KT BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT. EXPECT 5-10
KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 23N AFTER THE
FRONT LOSES IDENTITY ON WED...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH MORNING OVER THE EASTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE...SHIFT W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE
EACH AFTERNOON...AND THEN LOSE IDENTITY BY THE EVENING HOURS.
NE-E 10 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N...
EXCEPT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EACH EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE:  LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE 1-5 LOW
CONFIDENCE DAY 6 AND 7.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH
THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY S OF 20N ALONG 41W HAS BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE SPAWNED A LOW PRES NEAR 10N32.5W WHICH
IS ESTIMATED ESTIMATED AT 1014 MB. FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL
FORECAST THE WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
A SURGE IN THE EASTERLIES. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED TO THE S OF
14N E OF THE WAVE AND W OF THE LOW WITH SIGNS OF BANDING OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THUS...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS WILL
CROSS 55W EARLY FRI MORNING AND AFFECT THE LEEWARDS EARLY SAT.
THE GFS AND UKMET HAS SIMILAR TRACKS BUT THE GFS IS FAR MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSITY. NHC/WPC COORDINATED MEDIUM RANGE
MOVES THE LOW NW SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS...THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE GRIDS...BUT TONED DOWN THE MAX INTENSITY TO 30 KT AND THAT
INTENSITY IS MOSTLY OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE.

STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF
NEAR GALE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA.
MOD-FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT INCREASING BRIEFLY TO STRONG
TONIGHT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE DAY 1-5 LOW
CONFIDENCE DAY 6 AND 7.

A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM 30N60W TO SE FL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY 15-20 KT FLOW EXPECTED N OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FL COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL STALL ALONG 31N76W TO 29N80W LATE TUE NIGHT...WITH
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT DRIFTING W AND PASSING BACK OVER THE NE FL
COAST LATE FRI NIGHT. EASTERLY TRADES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT THROUGH EARLY THU. THE TRADES
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE THU AND LATE FRI ALONG THE N
COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 10N32.5W WITH ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF
1014 MB HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES
NW WITH ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MOVING INTO ATLC ZONE AMZ127 ON
FRI NIGHT AND INTO AMZ125 ON SAT NIGHT. THIS IS AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO EXPECT MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING
AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 281705
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM SW FL TO THE NE TX COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRES CENTERS FORMING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE
RIDGE AXIS...BUT MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT...NEARLY
STALL ON TUE...WITH REMNANTS OF THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER THE E
GULF THROUGH WED EVENING. WESTERLY 10-15 KT WINDS WILL PRECEDE
THE FRONT OVER THE N-CENTRAL AND NE GULF TODAY THROUGH LATE
TUE...BECOMING NW-N AT 10 KT BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT. EXPECT 5-10
KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF 23N AFTER THE
FRONT LOSES IDENTITY ON WED...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.

AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH MORNING OVER THE EASTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE...SHIFT W TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE
EACH AFTERNOON...AND THEN LOSE IDENTITY BY THE EVENING HOURS.
NE-E 10 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N...
EXCEPT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EACH EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE:  LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE 1-5 LOW
CONFIDENCE DAY 6 AND 7.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH
THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY S OF 20N ALONG 41W HAS BEEN PROGRESSING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE SPAWNED A LOW PRES NEAR 10N32.5W WHICH
IS ESTIMATED ESTIMATED AT 1014 MB. FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL
FORECAST THE WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
A SURGE IN THE EASTERLIES. CONVECTION IS ENHANCED TO THE S OF
14N E OF THE WAVE AND W OF THE LOW WITH SIGNS OF BANDING OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THUS...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS WILL
CROSS 55W EARLY FRI MORNING AND AFFECT THE LEEWARDS EARLY SAT.
THE GFS AND UKMET HAS SIMILAR TRACKS BUT THE GFS IS FAR MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSITY. NHC/WPC COORDINATED MEDIUM RANGE
MOVES THE LOW NW SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS...THIS IS REFLECTED IN
THE GRIDS...BUT TONED DOWN THE MAX INTENSITY TO 30 KT AND THAT
INTENSITY IS MOSTLY OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE.

STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF
NEAR GALE CONDITIONS THIS EVENING OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA.
MOD-FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT INCREASING BRIEFLY TO STRONG
TONIGHT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE DAY 1-5 LOW
CONFIDENCE DAY 6 AND 7.

A RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM 30N60W TO SE FL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY 15-20 KT FLOW EXPECTED N OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FL COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL STALL ALONG 31N76W TO 29N80W LATE TUE NIGHT...WITH
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT DRIFTING W AND PASSING BACK OVER THE NE FL
COAST LATE FRI NIGHT. EASTERLY TRADES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT THROUGH EARLY THU. THE TRADES
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE THU AND LATE FRI ALONG THE N
COAST OF HISPANIOLA.

LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 10N32.5W WITH ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF
1014 MB HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES
NW WITH ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MOVING INTO ATLC ZONE AMZ127 ON
FRI NIGHT AND INTO AMZ125 ON SAT NIGHT. THIS IS AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO EXPECT MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING
AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 280546
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
146 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT RIDGE EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE COAST
OF TEXAS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG ROUGHLY 26N/27N. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TUE AND WED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF TUE THEN STALLS AND DISSIPATES THROUGH WED.
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND OFFICIAL FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE
BEYOND DAY 4 FOR TROPICAL N ATLANTIC.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W-NW 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIB ALONG 80W THIS EVENING WILL REACH CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN MON. STRONG
TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE E CENTRAL ATLC IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC BY MID WEEK AND HAS POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG 28N WILL MEANDER A LITTLE TODAY
THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 26N MON IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA N OF 28N OFF NE
FLORIDA LATE MON. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO 20 KT MON NIGHT. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH WED...BUT MAY SERVE AS FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER GULF STREAM BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE THU.
THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF HAITI.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 271800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT RIDGE EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE COAST
OF TEXAS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG ROUGHLY 26N/27N. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TUE AND WED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SAGS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE THEN STALLS AND DISSIPATES THROUGH
WED. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER
MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. LOCALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS WILL PULSE OFF NW COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA MOST EVENINGS
THROUGH MID WEEK...ENHANCED BY PASSAGE OF NORTHERN PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF THROUGH MON. NO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER NOTED IN GLOBAL MODELS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE 3-4 DAYS ALL
BASINS. LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND DAY 4 FOR TROPICAL N ATLANTIC.

AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED SMALL AREA OF WINDS TO GALE
FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. A
TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY...REACH CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE.
STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONG TERM...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATE THU. GFS AND UKMET MODELS
ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE...WITH A LOW
FORMING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N137W MONDAY WHICH THEN
INTENSIFIES INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO TENDENCY OF GFS TO
AGGRESSIVELY SPIN WAVES INTO LOWS AND NEW MODEL CHARACTERISTICS
OF UKMET. RECENT ECMWF MODEL RUNS DO NOT DEPICT CYCLOGENESIS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG 28N WILL MEANDER A LITTLE TODAY
THEN SAG SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 26N MON IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS. ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE WATERS N OF 28N OFF
NE FLORIDA LATE MON. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO 20 KT MON NIGHT. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH WED...BUT MAY SERVE AS FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER GULF STREAM BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE
THU. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF HAITI.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
    .NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    .NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 271800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT RIDGE EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE COAST
OF TEXAS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG ROUGHLY 26N/27N. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TUE AND WED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SAGS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE THEN STALLS AND DISSIPATES THROUGH
WED. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER
MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. LOCALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS WILL PULSE OFF NW COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA MOST EVENINGS
THROUGH MID WEEK...ENHANCED BY PASSAGE OF NORTHERN PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF THROUGH MON. NO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER NOTED IN GLOBAL MODELS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE 3-4 DAYS ALL
BASINS. LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND DAY 4 FOR TROPICAL N ATLANTIC.

AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED SMALL AREA OF WINDS TO GALE
FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. A
TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY...REACH CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT THEN MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE.
STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LONG TERM...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATE THU. GFS AND UKMET MODELS
ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE...WITH A LOW
FORMING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N137W MONDAY WHICH THEN
INTENSIFIES INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO TENDENCY OF GFS TO
AGGRESSIVELY SPIN WAVES INTO LOWS AND NEW MODEL CHARACTERISTICS
OF UKMET. RECENT ECMWF MODEL RUNS DO NOT DEPICT CYCLOGENESIS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG 28N WILL MEANDER A LITTLE TODAY
THEN SAG SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 26N MON IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS. ASSOCIATED
WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE WATERS N OF 28N OFF
NE FLORIDA LATE MON. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO 20 KT MON NIGHT. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL AND WEAKEN
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH WED...BUT MAY SERVE AS FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER GULF STREAM BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE
THU. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES N OF HAITI.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
    .NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    .NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 270749
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
349 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SEA HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT RIDGE EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE COAST
OF TEXAS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG ROUGHLY 26N/27N. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TUE AND WED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SAGS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE THEN STALLS AND DISSIPATES THROUGH
WED. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER
MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. LOCALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS WILL PULSE OFF NW COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA MOST EVENINGS
THROUGH MID WEEK...ENHANCED BY PASSAGE OF NORTHERN PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF MON AND TUE. NO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER NOTED IN GLOBAL MODELS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SEA HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 0230 UTC INDICATED
WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR BARRANQUILLA.
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...THESE WINDS ARE THE PRODUCT OF A
FAIRLY STRONG AND PERSISTENT RIDGE N OF THE BASIN COMBINED WITH
DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE COASTAL TERRAIN. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
LATER THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE AS THE DRAINAGE WEAKENS. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY...TAKING THE TRADE
WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY OFF COLOMBIA TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE THE MAIN AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING FROM THE
GULF OF HONDURAS INLAND OVER BELIZE.  MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE
WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN HISPANIOLA
AND THE ABC ISLANDS WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE
COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA MON AND TUE. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS WAVE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG 28N WILL MEANDER A LITTLE THROUGH
SUN THEN SAG SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 26N MON IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE WATERS N
OF 28N OFF NE FLORIDA LATE MON. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 KT BRIEFLY MON NIGHT. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL AND WEAKEN OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH WED...BUT MAY
SERVE AS FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE GULF STREAM BEFORE
BECOME DIFFUSE BY THU. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES N OF HAITI.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 270749
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
349 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SEA HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

PERSISTENT RIDGE EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE COAST
OF TEXAS WILL REMAIN DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG ROUGHLY 26N/27N. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TUE AND WED AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SAGS INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE THEN STALLS AND DISSIPATES THROUGH
WED. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER
MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. LOCALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS WILL PULSE OFF NW COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA MOST EVENINGS
THROUGH MID WEEK...ENHANCED BY PASSAGE OF NORTHERN PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF MON AND TUE. NO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER NOTED IN GLOBAL MODELS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MWW3
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SEA HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 0230 UTC INDICATED
WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR BARRANQUILLA.
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...THESE WINDS ARE THE PRODUCT OF A
FAIRLY STRONG AND PERSISTENT RIDGE N OF THE BASIN COMBINED WITH
DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE COASTAL TERRAIN. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
LATER THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE AS THE DRAINAGE WEAKENS. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY...TAKING THE TRADE
WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY OFF COLOMBIA TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE THE MAIN AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING FROM THE
GULF OF HONDURAS INLAND OVER BELIZE.  MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE
WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN HISPANIOLA
AND THE ABC ISLANDS WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE
COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA MON AND TUE. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THIS WAVE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG 28N WILL MEANDER A LITTLE THROUGH
SUN THEN SAG SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 26N MON IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE WATERS N
OF 28N OFF NE FLORIDA LATE MON. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 KT BRIEFLY MON NIGHT. FRONT EXPECTED TO
STALL AND WEAKEN OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH WED...BUT MAY
SERVE AS FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE GULF STREAM BEFORE
BECOME DIFFUSE BY THU. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES N OF HAITI.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




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