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000
AGXX40 KNHC 271836
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
236 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH LATEST FORECAST. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW-
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N87W TO THE W CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N94W. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH FRI. A TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER S FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE BASIN SE-S OF THE FRONT MAINLY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF STREAM. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY
SUBDUED ACROSS THE GULF WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR SUN AND MON CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK AND
DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING ERIKA...NOW MOVING W ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES WNW TOWARD OR OVER THE BAHAMAS. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AS IT STARTS TO MAKE A TURN
TO THE NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
STARTING SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS TIME AS TO
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY FOR SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST REASONING UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCDAT5/WTNT45 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS. NWPS USED
FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING ERIKA IS MOVING ACROSS THE
FAR NE CARIBBEAN CURRENTLY. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERIKA AND WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE STORM. ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED SQUALLS...THE
MAIN MARINE IMPACTS OF WINDS AND SEAS ARE OVER ATLC WATERS WITHIN
270 NM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF
ERIKA. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW AND PASS OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN
CURRENTLY. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE OFF WESTERN VENEZUELA BY
LATE FRI AS RIDGING BUILDS N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ERIKA. THE
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH AS THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE FOLLOWING ERIKA MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE
EXPECTED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC
WILL KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAK AND DISPLACED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PREVENT ANY LARGE SCALE INCREASE IN TRADES
SUN THROUGH TUE EXCEPT FOR BRIEF OVERNIGHT PULSES OFF WESTERN
VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA. MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA LONG A PERSISTENT TROUGH REACHING FROM
31N76W TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. FARTHER TO THE SE...A 14 UTC
ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 TO 30 KT WINDS WITHIN 270 NM N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...ON THE NORTH END OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. WINDS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING OVER ATLC WATERS N
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS THE CENTER OF ERIKA MOVE ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GRADUALLY INTO A STRONG HURRICANE THROUGH LATE
FRI AS IT CONTINUES WNW MAINLY N OF HISPANIOLA TOWARD THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SE BAHAMAS...THEN ON TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
THROUGH SAT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA LATE SAT INTO SUN AS ERIKA REACHES A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND STARTS TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH...POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NW BAHAMAS THEN NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST REASONING UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCDAT5/WTNT45 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO TRENCH...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 271836
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
236 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH LATEST FORECAST. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW-
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N87W TO THE W CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N94W. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH FRI. A TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER S FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE BASIN SE-S OF THE FRONT MAINLY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF STREAM. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY
SUBDUED ACROSS THE GULF WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR SUN AND MON CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK AND
DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING ERIKA...NOW MOVING W ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES WNW TOWARD OR OVER THE BAHAMAS. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AS IT STARTS TO MAKE A TURN
TO THE NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
STARTING SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS TIME AS TO
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY FOR SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST REASONING UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCDAT5/WTNT45 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS. NWPS USED
FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING ERIKA IS MOVING ACROSS THE
FAR NE CARIBBEAN CURRENTLY. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERIKA AND WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE STORM. ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED SQUALLS...THE
MAIN MARINE IMPACTS OF WINDS AND SEAS ARE OVER ATLC WATERS WITHIN
270 NM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF
ERIKA. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW AND PASS OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN
CURRENTLY. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE OFF WESTERN VENEZUELA BY
LATE FRI AS RIDGING BUILDS N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ERIKA. THE
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH AS THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE FOLLOWING ERIKA MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE
EXPECTED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC
WILL KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAK AND DISPLACED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PREVENT ANY LARGE SCALE INCREASE IN TRADES
SUN THROUGH TUE EXCEPT FOR BRIEF OVERNIGHT PULSES OFF WESTERN
VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA. MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA LONG A PERSISTENT TROUGH REACHING FROM
31N76W TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. FARTHER TO THE SE...A 14 UTC
ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 TO 30 KT WINDS WITHIN 270 NM N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...ON THE NORTH END OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. WINDS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING OVER ATLC WATERS N
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS THE CENTER OF ERIKA MOVE ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GRADUALLY INTO A STRONG HURRICANE THROUGH LATE
FRI AS IT CONTINUES WNW MAINLY N OF HISPANIOLA TOWARD THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SE BAHAMAS...THEN ON TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
THROUGH SAT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA LATE SAT INTO SUN AS ERIKA REACHES A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND STARTS TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH...POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NW BAHAMAS THEN NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST REASONING UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCDAT5/WTNT45 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO TRENCH...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 271836
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
236 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH LATEST FORECAST. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW-
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N87W TO THE W CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N94W. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH FRI. A TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER S FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE BASIN SE-S OF THE FRONT MAINLY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF STREAM. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY
SUBDUED ACROSS THE GULF WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR SUN AND MON CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK AND
DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING ERIKA...NOW MOVING W ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES WNW TOWARD OR OVER THE BAHAMAS. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AS IT STARTS TO MAKE A TURN
TO THE NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
STARTING SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS TIME AS TO
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY FOR SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST REASONING UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCDAT5/WTNT45 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS. NWPS USED
FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING ERIKA IS MOVING ACROSS THE
FAR NE CARIBBEAN CURRENTLY. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERIKA AND WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE STORM. ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED SQUALLS...THE
MAIN MARINE IMPACTS OF WINDS AND SEAS ARE OVER ATLC WATERS WITHIN
270 NM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF
ERIKA. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW AND PASS OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN
CURRENTLY. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE OFF WESTERN VENEZUELA BY
LATE FRI AS RIDGING BUILDS N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ERIKA. THE
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH AS THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE FOLLOWING ERIKA MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE
EXPECTED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC
WILL KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAK AND DISPLACED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PREVENT ANY LARGE SCALE INCREASE IN TRADES
SUN THROUGH TUE EXCEPT FOR BRIEF OVERNIGHT PULSES OFF WESTERN
VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA. MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA LONG A PERSISTENT TROUGH REACHING FROM
31N76W TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. FARTHER TO THE SE...A 14 UTC
ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 TO 30 KT WINDS WITHIN 270 NM N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...ON THE NORTH END OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. WINDS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING OVER ATLC WATERS N
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS THE CENTER OF ERIKA MOVE ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GRADUALLY INTO A STRONG HURRICANE THROUGH LATE
FRI AS IT CONTINUES WNW MAINLY N OF HISPANIOLA TOWARD THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SE BAHAMAS...THEN ON TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
THROUGH SAT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA LATE SAT INTO SUN AS ERIKA REACHES A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND STARTS TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH...POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NW BAHAMAS THEN NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST REASONING UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCDAT5/WTNT45 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO TRENCH...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 271836
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
236 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH LATEST FORECAST. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW-
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N87W TO THE W CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N94W. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH FRI. A TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER S FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE BASIN SE-S OF THE FRONT MAINLY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF STREAM. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY
SUBDUED ACROSS THE GULF WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR SUN AND MON CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK AND
DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING ERIKA...NOW MOVING W ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES WNW TOWARD OR OVER THE BAHAMAS. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE AS IT STARTS TO MAKE A TURN
TO THE NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
STARTING SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS TIME AS TO
THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY FOR SUNDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST REASONING UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCDAT5/WTNT45 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS. NWPS USED
FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING ERIKA IS MOVING ACROSS THE
FAR NE CARIBBEAN CURRENTLY. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERIKA AND WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SE
QUADRANT OF THE STORM. ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED SQUALLS...THE
MAIN MARINE IMPACTS OF WINDS AND SEAS ARE OVER ATLC WATERS WITHIN
270 NM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF
ERIKA. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW AND PASS OVER
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN
CURRENTLY. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE OFF WESTERN VENEZUELA BY
LATE FRI AS RIDGING BUILDS N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF ERIKA. THE
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH AS THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE FOLLOWING ERIKA MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THE
EXPECTED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC
WILL KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAK AND DISPLACED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PREVENT ANY LARGE SCALE INCREASE IN TRADES
SUN THROUGH TUE EXCEPT FOR BRIEF OVERNIGHT PULSES OFF WESTERN
VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA. MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CONTINUE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA LONG A PERSISTENT TROUGH REACHING FROM
31N76W TO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. FARTHER TO THE SE...A 14 UTC
ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 TO 30 KT WINDS WITHIN 270 NM N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...ON THE NORTH END OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. WINDS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING OVER ATLC WATERS N
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS THE CENTER OF ERIKA MOVE ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GRADUALLY INTO A STRONG HURRICANE THROUGH LATE
FRI AS IT CONTINUES WNW MAINLY N OF HISPANIOLA TOWARD THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SE BAHAMAS...THEN ON TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
THROUGH SAT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA LATE SAT INTO SUN AS ERIKA REACHES A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND STARTS TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH...POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NW BAHAMAS THEN NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FORECAST REASONING UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCDAT5/WTNT45 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO TRENCH...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 270720
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
320 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N87W TO THE W CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N94W. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH FRI. A TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER S FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE BASIN SE-S OF THE FRONT TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY SUBDUED ACROSS THE GULF
WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR SUN AND MON WILL BE THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT
OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...NOW APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES
WNW TOWARD OR OVER THE BAHAMAS. AS FOR THE TRACK...GLOBAL MODELS
TRENDED TO THE RIGHT YESTERDAY AWAY FROM THE SE GULF...HOWEVER
THE NEW 00 UTC ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO THE
SE GULF WHILE THE 00 UTC GFS HAS ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT. WITH A LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THE EVENTUAL PATH OF ERIKA. AT ANY RATE IT IS PLAUSIBLE
TO EXPECT FRESH OR EVEN STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF
MON AS ERIKA MAKES ITS CLOSET POINT OF APPROACH.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS. NWPS USED
FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE CARIBBEAN...LOW TO MEDIUM
TROPICAL N ATLC.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 60.8W 1006 MB AT 2 AM
EDT APPROACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. ERIKA IS FORECAST TO
SKIRT ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...MOVING
OVER OR JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...THEN NEAR OR JUST N OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...THEN NEAR OR N OF HISPANIOLA FRI. FOR NOW THE MAIN IMPACTS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR THE NE
CARIBBEAN AND OF COURSE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N
ATLC N OF 12N.

ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC IS DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
REMNANTS OF DANNY MOVING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF RELATIVE LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS IS NOTED IN OVERNIGHT ASCAT AND
ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES WHICH MEASURED ONLY 10-20 KT WINDS
NEAR THE TYPICAL HOT SPOT OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH 15-20 KT
IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. THE LATEST GFS RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS INDICATING A BRIEF RETURN TO FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE FRI NIGHT
AS RIDGING FOLLOWS IN THE EVENTUAL WAKE OF ERIKA...PERSISTING
THROUGH SUN MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AS THE PRES
GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC SUN WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N80W TO NEAR JUPITER FLORIDA
TO ACROSS SW FLORIDA NEAR MARCO ISLAND. THIS TROUGH IS LOCATED
AHEAD OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS PARKED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM E-SE OF THIS TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM 1018 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 28N60W WESTWARD TO NEAR
30N76W. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION MAINLY MODERATE RETURN FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 65W EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
IN THE NE WATERS CLOSE TO THE HIGH CENTER. SEAS ARE 3-6 FT OUTSIDE
OF THE BAHAMAS AND W OF 65W.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 60.8W 1006 MB AT
2 AM EDT APPROACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. SCATTEROMETER DATA
ALREADY SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS ZONE AMZ127
WHERE SEAS ARE 8-12 FT AS REPORTED BY NDBC BUOY 41044 LOCATED AT
21.6N58.6W AND BY AN EARLY ALTIMETER PASS. ERIKA IS FORECAST TO
SKIRT ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...MOVING
OVER OR JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...THEN NEAR OR JUST N OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...THEN NEAR OR N OF HISPANIOLA FRI...THEN ACROSS OR NEAR THE
BAHAMAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST
00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE
LEFT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THUS WITH A DISCREPANCY IN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.


$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
60W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO TRENCH...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 270720
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
320 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N87W TO THE W CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N94W. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH FRI. A TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER S FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE BASIN SE-S OF THE FRONT TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY SUBDUED ACROSS THE GULF
WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR SUN AND MON WILL BE THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT
OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...NOW APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES
WNW TOWARD OR OVER THE BAHAMAS. AS FOR THE TRACK...GLOBAL MODELS
TRENDED TO THE RIGHT YESTERDAY AWAY FROM THE SE GULF...HOWEVER
THE NEW 00 UTC ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO THE
SE GULF WHILE THE 00 UTC GFS HAS ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT. WITH A LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THE EVENTUAL PATH OF ERIKA. AT ANY RATE IT IS PLAUSIBLE
TO EXPECT FRESH OR EVEN STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF
MON AS ERIKA MAKES ITS CLOSET POINT OF APPROACH.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS. NWPS USED
FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE CARIBBEAN...LOW TO MEDIUM
TROPICAL N ATLC.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 60.8W 1006 MB AT 2 AM
EDT APPROACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. ERIKA IS FORECAST TO
SKIRT ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...MOVING
OVER OR JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...THEN NEAR OR JUST N OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...THEN NEAR OR N OF HISPANIOLA FRI. FOR NOW THE MAIN IMPACTS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR THE NE
CARIBBEAN AND OF COURSE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N
ATLC N OF 12N.

ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC IS DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
REMNANTS OF DANNY MOVING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF RELATIVE LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS IS NOTED IN OVERNIGHT ASCAT AND
ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES WHICH MEASURED ONLY 10-20 KT WINDS
NEAR THE TYPICAL HOT SPOT OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH 15-20 KT
IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. THE LATEST GFS RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS INDICATING A BRIEF RETURN TO FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE FRI NIGHT
AS RIDGING FOLLOWS IN THE EVENTUAL WAKE OF ERIKA...PERSISTING
THROUGH SUN MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AS THE PRES
GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC SUN WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N80W TO NEAR JUPITER FLORIDA
TO ACROSS SW FLORIDA NEAR MARCO ISLAND. THIS TROUGH IS LOCATED
AHEAD OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS PARKED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM E-SE OF THIS TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM 1018 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 28N60W WESTWARD TO NEAR
30N76W. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION MAINLY MODERATE RETURN FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 65W EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
IN THE NE WATERS CLOSE TO THE HIGH CENTER. SEAS ARE 3-6 FT OUTSIDE
OF THE BAHAMAS AND W OF 65W.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 60.8W 1006 MB AT
2 AM EDT APPROACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. SCATTEROMETER DATA
ALREADY SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS ZONE AMZ127
WHERE SEAS ARE 8-12 FT AS REPORTED BY NDBC BUOY 41044 LOCATED AT
21.6N58.6W AND BY AN EARLY ALTIMETER PASS. ERIKA IS FORECAST TO
SKIRT ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...MOVING
OVER OR JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...THEN NEAR OR JUST N OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...THEN NEAR OR N OF HISPANIOLA FRI...THEN ACROSS OR NEAR THE
BAHAMAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST
00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE
LEFT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THUS WITH A DISCREPANCY IN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.


$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
60W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO TRENCH...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 270720
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
320 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N87W TO THE W CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N94W. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH FRI. A TROUGH REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER S FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE BASIN SE-S OF THE FRONT TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY SUBDUED ACROSS THE GULF
WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR SUN AND MON WILL BE THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT
OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...NOW APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES
WNW TOWARD OR OVER THE BAHAMAS. AS FOR THE TRACK...GLOBAL MODELS
TRENDED TO THE RIGHT YESTERDAY AWAY FROM THE SE GULF...HOWEVER
THE NEW 00 UTC ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO THE
SE GULF WHILE THE 00 UTC GFS HAS ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT. WITH A LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THE EVENTUAL PATH OF ERIKA. AT ANY RATE IT IS PLAUSIBLE
TO EXPECT FRESH OR EVEN STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF
MON AS ERIKA MAKES ITS CLOSET POINT OF APPROACH.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS. NWPS USED
FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE CARIBBEAN...LOW TO MEDIUM
TROPICAL N ATLC.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 60.8W 1006 MB AT 2 AM
EDT APPROACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. ERIKA IS FORECAST TO
SKIRT ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...MOVING
OVER OR JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...THEN NEAR OR JUST N OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...THEN NEAR OR N OF HISPANIOLA FRI. FOR NOW THE MAIN IMPACTS
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR THE NE
CARIBBEAN AND OF COURSE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N
ATLC N OF 12N.

ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC IS DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
REMNANTS OF DANNY MOVING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF RELATIVE LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS IS NOTED IN OVERNIGHT ASCAT AND
ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES WHICH MEASURED ONLY 10-20 KT WINDS
NEAR THE TYPICAL HOT SPOT OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH 15-20 KT
IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. THE LATEST GFS RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS INDICATING A BRIEF RETURN TO FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE FRI NIGHT
AS RIDGING FOLLOWS IN THE EVENTUAL WAKE OF ERIKA...PERSISTING
THROUGH SUN MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AS THE PRES
GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC SUN WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 20 KT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N80W TO NEAR JUPITER FLORIDA
TO ACROSS SW FLORIDA NEAR MARCO ISLAND. THIS TROUGH IS LOCATED
AHEAD OF A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH IS PARKED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM E-SE OF THIS TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM 1018 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 28N60W WESTWARD TO NEAR
30N76W. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION MAINLY MODERATE RETURN FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 65W EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
IN THE NE WATERS CLOSE TO THE HIGH CENTER. SEAS ARE 3-6 FT OUTSIDE
OF THE BAHAMAS AND W OF 65W.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 60.8W 1006 MB AT
2 AM EDT APPROACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. SCATTEROMETER DATA
ALREADY SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS ZONE AMZ127
WHERE SEAS ARE 8-12 FT AS REPORTED BY NDBC BUOY 41044 LOCATED AT
21.6N58.6W AND BY AN EARLY ALTIMETER PASS. ERIKA IS FORECAST TO
SKIRT ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...MOVING
OVER OR JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...THEN NEAR OR JUST N OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...THEN NEAR OR N OF HISPANIOLA FRI...THEN ACROSS OR NEAR THE
BAHAMAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST
00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE
LEFT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THUS WITH A DISCREPANCY IN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.


$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
60W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO TRENCH...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 261841
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
241 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
SAT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT MAY
SHIFT EAST A LITTLE THROUGH THU...BUT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH
FRI. A TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER S FLORIDA INTO THE SE
GULF...SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY
SUBDUED ACROSS THE GULF...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT.
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR SUN AND MON WILL BE THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT
OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...NOW EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES WNW
TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. AS FOR THE TRACK...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AREA IMPACTED BY ERIKA REMAINING EAST
OF THE GULF THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES
REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF ERIKA. AT ANY RATE...IT IS PLAUSIBLE TO
EXPECT FRESH OR EVEN STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF MON
AS ERIKA MAKES ITS CLOSET POINT OF APPROACH TO THE EAST.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE CARIBBEAN...
LOW TO MEDIUM TROPICAL N ATLC.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING ERIKA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SKIRT
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THU...MOVING OVER OR JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO THU AND THU NIGHT...THEN NEAR OR N OF HISPANIOLA FRI. FOR
NOW THE MAIN IMPACTS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN AND OF COURSE THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF 14N.

ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC IS DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
REMNANTS OF DANNY MOVING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF RELATIVE LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS IS NOTED IN A 14 UTC ASCAT PASS
SHOWING ONLY MODERATE FLOW OFF NE COLOMBIA AND 10 TO 15 KT REPORTS
FROM THE ABC ISLANDS. THE LATEST GFS RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS INDICATING A BRIEF RETURN TO FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MAINLY OFF NE
COLOMBIA...TONIGHT DUE TO RIDGING FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE
REMNANT TROUGH OF DANNY. THIS WEAKENS THU AS ERIKA MOVES WNW
KEEPING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DISPLACED. ELSEWHERE WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN DIMINISHED.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM
SE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
THIS EVENING AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING BUILDS ALONG 29N/30N. GENTLE
TO MODERATE SE-S WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 65W ALONG
WITH 3-6 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OUT JUST OFF NE FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.A 13 UTC ASCAT
PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
AMZ127...NORTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WNW TO THE NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES TOWARD THE SE BAHAMAS...REACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT NEARS THE NW BAHAMAS AND SE
FLORIDA. WHILE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
SYSTEM...AT LEAST THROUGH SAT...THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH REGARD TO THE INTENSITY OF ERIKA.


$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU.
.AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
60W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO TRENCH...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
.AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 261841
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
241 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
SAT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT MAY
SHIFT EAST A LITTLE THROUGH THU...BUT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH
FRI. A TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER S FLORIDA INTO THE SE
GULF...SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY
SUBDUED ACROSS THE GULF...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT.
THE MAIN ISSUE FOR SUN AND MON WILL BE THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT
OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...NOW EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES WNW
TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. AS FOR THE TRACK...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AREA IMPACTED BY ERIKA REMAINING EAST
OF THE GULF THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES
REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF ERIKA. AT ANY RATE...IT IS PLAUSIBLE TO
EXPECT FRESH OR EVEN STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF MON
AS ERIKA MAKES ITS CLOSET POINT OF APPROACH TO THE EAST.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE CARIBBEAN...
LOW TO MEDIUM TROPICAL N ATLC.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING ERIKA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SKIRT
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THU...MOVING OVER OR JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO THU AND THU NIGHT...THEN NEAR OR N OF HISPANIOLA FRI. FOR
NOW THE MAIN IMPACTS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN AND OF COURSE THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF 14N.

ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC IS DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
REMNANTS OF DANNY MOVING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF RELATIVE LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS IS NOTED IN A 14 UTC ASCAT PASS
SHOWING ONLY MODERATE FLOW OFF NE COLOMBIA AND 10 TO 15 KT REPORTS
FROM THE ABC ISLANDS. THE LATEST GFS RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS INDICATING A BRIEF RETURN TO FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MAINLY OFF NE
COLOMBIA...TONIGHT DUE TO RIDGING FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE
REMNANT TROUGH OF DANNY. THIS WEAKENS THU AS ERIKA MOVES WNW
KEEPING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DISPLACED. ELSEWHERE WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN DIMINISHED.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM
SE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
THIS EVENING AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING BUILDS ALONG 29N/30N. GENTLE
TO MODERATE SE-S WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 65W ALONG
WITH 3-6 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OUT JUST OFF NE FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.A 13 UTC ASCAT
PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
AMZ127...NORTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WNW TO THE NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES TOWARD THE SE BAHAMAS...REACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT NEARS THE NW BAHAMAS AND SE
FLORIDA. WHILE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF
SYSTEM...AT LEAST THROUGH SAT...THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH REGARD TO THE INTENSITY OF ERIKA.


$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU.
.AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
60W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO TRENCH...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
.AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 260736
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
336 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW TO MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED FROM EASTERN APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N96W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 30-45 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MAKE A LITTLE MORE FORWARD PROGRESS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NUDGES IT TO THE SE WITH THE FRONT
REACHING FORM NEAR 29N83W TO 25N87W TO 24N94W WHERE IT WILL STALL
BY EARLY THU. EXPECT MODERATE N-NE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS BEHIND
THE FRONT. AN ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 22N. OVERNIGHT
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE E OF THE TROUGH
AND W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE A LARGE COMPLEX OF TSTMS
MOVED INTO THE AREA...HAVING SINCE DISSIPATED. THIS TROUGH WILL
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY LATER THIS MORNING. BROAD TROUGHING IS ALSO
PRESENT ACROSS THE SE GULF WHERE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE PRESENT...LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD S AND SW
FLORIDA. THE REMNANTS OF DANNY ARE FORECAST TO MOVE W-NW THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS A SURFACE TROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT. MEANWHILE THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AND RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
W-NW AS A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 29N88W TO
20N92W BY SAT MORNING...DISSIPATING BY SAT EVENING.

CONFIDENCE THEN DECREASES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. CURRENTLY HIGH PRES RIDGING IS FORECAST TO MAKE A RETURN
JUST N OF THE GULF ALLOWING FOR MODERATE E-SE RETURN FLOW TO
DOMINATE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IS
PRESENT WITH REGARD TO TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS
A WEAK SYSTEM OR OPEN TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SE GULF SUN...WHILE
THE LATEST ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A STRONGER SYSTEM WITH IT
REMAINING E OF THE GULF BASIN. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
(AS OF 03 UTC) ALSO KEEPS ERIKA E OF THE BASIN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE CARIBBEAN...
LOW TO MEDIUM TROPICAL N ATLC.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SKIRT ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...MOVING OVER OR
JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THU AND THU NIGHT...
THEN NEAR OR N OF HISPANIOLA FRI. FOR NOW THE MAIN IMPACTS LOOK TO
REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN
AND OF COURSE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC.

THE REMNANTS OF DANNY IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ACCOMPANYING IT. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE W-NW REACHING CENTRAL CUBA BY FRI MORNING...THEN MOVING
ACROSS THE YUCATAN SAT. OTHERWISE A FAIRLY WEAK PRES PATTERN IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND IN-SITU
OBSERVATIONS REPORTED LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
ALONG WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT...WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT UP TO 25 KT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL HELP TO KEEP THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAK ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS CENTRAL
ATLC HIGH PRES WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN ITS WAKE RESULTING IN
INCREASING WINDS STARTING WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES SETTING UP
IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS SAT NIGHT...PROPAGATING WESTWARD TO N OF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
THE GRADIENT IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS FROM 31N70W TO 27N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS CENTRAL ATLC
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION. GENTLE TO MODERATE
SE-S WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 65W ALONG WITH 3-6
FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST
NW OF THE NW CORNER OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SNEAKING INTO THE NW CORNER BY THU MORNING
WHERE IT MAY LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS ALREADY RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE-E
WINDS IN ZONE AMZ127 PER RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE
CURRENT NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES ERIKA ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...THEN ACROSS OR JUST N OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THU THROUGH THU NIGHT...NEAR OR N
OF HISPANIOLA FRI...ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS FRI NIGHT...THEN
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE
LATEST GFS SHOWING A WEAK SYSTEM OR EVEN OPEN TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...WHILE THE LATEST
ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WHICH STAYS MORE TO
THE N. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE BE SURE TO CONTINUE TO
CHECK HURRICANES.GOV FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AND OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU.
.AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
60W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO TRENCH...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU NIGHT.
.AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 260736
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
336 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN LOW TO MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED FROM EASTERN APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N96W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 30-45 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MAKE A LITTLE MORE FORWARD PROGRESS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NUDGES IT TO THE SE WITH THE FRONT
REACHING FORM NEAR 29N83W TO 25N87W TO 24N94W WHERE IT WILL STALL
BY EARLY THU. EXPECT MODERATE N-NE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS BEHIND
THE FRONT. AN ACTIVE SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 22N. OVERNIGHT
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE E OF THE TROUGH
AND W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE A LARGE COMPLEX OF TSTMS
MOVED INTO THE AREA...HAVING SINCE DISSIPATED. THIS TROUGH WILL
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY LATER THIS MORNING. BROAD TROUGHING IS ALSO
PRESENT ACROSS THE SE GULF WHERE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE PRESENT...LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD S AND SW
FLORIDA. THE REMNANTS OF DANNY ARE FORECAST TO MOVE W-NW THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS A SURFACE TROUGH FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT. MEANWHILE THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AND RETROGRADE BACK TO THE
W-NW AS A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 29N88W TO
20N92W BY SAT MORNING...DISSIPATING BY SAT EVENING.

CONFIDENCE THEN DECREASES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. CURRENTLY HIGH PRES RIDGING IS FORECAST TO MAKE A RETURN
JUST N OF THE GULF ALLOWING FOR MODERATE E-SE RETURN FLOW TO
DOMINATE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT IS
PRESENT WITH REGARD TO TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS
A WEAK SYSTEM OR OPEN TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SE GULF SUN...WHILE
THE LATEST ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A STRONGER SYSTEM WITH IT
REMAINING E OF THE GULF BASIN. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST
(AS OF 03 UTC) ALSO KEEPS ERIKA E OF THE BASIN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE CARIBBEAN...
LOW TO MEDIUM TROPICAL N ATLC.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SKIRT ACROSS THE NE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...MOVING OVER OR
JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THU AND THU NIGHT...
THEN NEAR OR N OF HISPANIOLA FRI. FOR NOW THE MAIN IMPACTS LOOK TO
REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN
AND OF COURSE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC.

THE REMNANTS OF DANNY IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ACCOMPANYING IT. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE W-NW REACHING CENTRAL CUBA BY FRI MORNING...THEN MOVING
ACROSS THE YUCATAN SAT. OTHERWISE A FAIRLY WEAK PRES PATTERN IS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND IN-SITU
OBSERVATIONS REPORTED LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
ALONG WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT...WHILE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT UP TO 25 KT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL HELP TO KEEP THE PRES GRADIENT
WEAK ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS CENTRAL
ATLC HIGH PRES WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN ITS WAKE RESULTING IN
INCREASING WINDS STARTING WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES SETTING UP
IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS SAT NIGHT...PROPAGATING WESTWARD TO N OF
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
THE GRADIENT IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS FROM 31N70W TO 27N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS CENTRAL ATLC
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION. GENTLE TO MODERATE
SE-S WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 65W ALONG WITH 3-6
FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST
NW OF THE NW CORNER OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SNEAKING INTO THE NW CORNER BY THU MORNING
WHERE IT MAY LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS ALREADY RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE-E
WINDS IN ZONE AMZ127 PER RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. THE
CURRENT NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES ERIKA ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...THEN ACROSS OR JUST N OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THU THROUGH THU NIGHT...NEAR OR N
OF HISPANIOLA FRI...ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS FRI NIGHT...THEN
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE
LATEST GFS SHOWING A WEAK SYSTEM OR EVEN OPEN TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...WHILE THE LATEST
ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM WHICH STAYS MORE TO
THE N. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN PLACE BE SURE TO CONTINUE TO
CHECK HURRICANES.GOV FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AND OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU.
.AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
60W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO
RICO TRENCH...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU NIGHT.
.AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 251839
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
239 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
TO SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR 30N90W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND CONTINUES ON TO NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS FAIRLY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE STORMS. THE SUPPORTING UPPER
TROUGH REACHES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE N CENTRAL GULF
THEN TO THE FAR SW GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOTED AT THE BASE OF TROUGH OFF VERACRUZ THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FAIRLY LIMITED
WITH BUOYS INDICATING ONLY AROUND 1 TO 3 FT IN MOST AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...STALLING FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY TO NE MEXICO BY EARLY
THU...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE BY FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE NE GULF AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR THE LOOP CURRENT.
MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPLIED BY THE
REMNANT TROUGH OF DANNY...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SE GULF FRI.
SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...RANGING 1 TO 3 FT FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH THE WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE CARIBBEAN...
MEDIUM TROPICAL N ATLC.

ACTIVE CONVECTION PERSIST OVER PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN
WATERS AS THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF DANNY MOVE NW ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS IS BEING ANALYZED AS A TROUGH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND CUBA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA PERSISTS ABOUT 700 NM ESE OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. WHILE LOOKING SOMEWHAT WEAKER RECENTLY...ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE WNW...REACHING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY THU. WHILE THIS STORM
APPEARS TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY WEAKENING AS FAR AS ITS
PRESENTATION ON VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AN ASCAT PASS
FROM 12 UTC INDICATED THAT THERE WERE STILL FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
AROUND ERIKA...WITH WINDS TO 25 KT REACHING AS FAR AS 270 NM TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...IN CONTRAST TO THE VERY SMALL
DANNY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON ERIKA...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
BULLETIN FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WTNT25 KNHC/TMCAT5
AND AT HURRICANES.GOV.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN IMPACT AREA AROUND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO THE EAST OF LEEWARDS...A RELATIVELY WEAK
PRES PATTERN IS SETTING UP OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN DUE TO THE
TRACK OF DANNY AND NOW ERIKA TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WEAKENING
AND DISPLACING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT
DATA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED TRADE WINDS WERE ONLY
AROUND 20 KT OFF COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT
OVER MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH THU. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE
OF ERIKA...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN OFF WESTERN
VENEZUELA AND THE ABC ISLANDS BY FRI...SHIFTING WEST TO NE
COLOMBIA BY THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 10 FT BY LATE SAT
OFF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS FROM 30N69W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE ALONG THIS
TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACTIVE FARTHER
NORTH...N OF GRAND BAHAMA ALONG 78W...AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS NOTED IN THE
WIND FIELD EXTENDING FROM 30N55W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...CURRENTLY AROUND 700 NM ESE
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ERIKA IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE FRI...BUT THERE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE SO FAR ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ERIKA.

LINGERS ACROSS THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM NEAR
30N66W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45-60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TODAY AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING
REGAINS CONTROL OF THE BASIN. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT NEAR
THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH
WINDS. RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATER TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING ERIKA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON ERIKA...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST BULLETIN FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WTNT25 KNHC/TMCAT5 AND AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING WED NIGHT INTO THU.
.AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
60W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 251839
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
239 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
TO SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR 30N90W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND CONTINUES ON TO NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS FAIRLY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE STORMS. THE SUPPORTING UPPER
TROUGH REACHES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE N CENTRAL GULF
THEN TO THE FAR SW GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOTED AT THE BASE OF TROUGH OFF VERACRUZ THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FAIRLY LIMITED
WITH BUOYS INDICATING ONLY AROUND 1 TO 3 FT IN MOST AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...STALLING FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY TO NE MEXICO BY EARLY
THU...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE BY FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE NE GULF AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR THE LOOP CURRENT.
MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPLIED BY THE
REMNANT TROUGH OF DANNY...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SE GULF FRI.
SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...RANGING 1 TO 3 FT FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH THE WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE CARIBBEAN...
MEDIUM TROPICAL N ATLC.

ACTIVE CONVECTION PERSIST OVER PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN
WATERS AS THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF DANNY MOVE NW ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS IS BEING ANALYZED AS A TROUGH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND CUBA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA PERSISTS ABOUT 700 NM ESE OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. WHILE LOOKING SOMEWHAT WEAKER RECENTLY...ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE WNW...REACHING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY THU. WHILE THIS STORM
APPEARS TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY WEAKENING AS FAR AS ITS
PRESENTATION ON VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AN ASCAT PASS
FROM 12 UTC INDICATED THAT THERE WERE STILL FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
AROUND ERIKA...WITH WINDS TO 25 KT REACHING AS FAR AS 270 NM TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...IN CONTRAST TO THE VERY SMALL
DANNY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON ERIKA...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
BULLETIN FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WTNT25 KNHC/TMCAT5
AND AT HURRICANES.GOV.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN IMPACT AREA AROUND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO THE EAST OF LEEWARDS...A RELATIVELY WEAK
PRES PATTERN IS SETTING UP OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN DUE TO THE
TRACK OF DANNY AND NOW ERIKA TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WEAKENING
AND DISPLACING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT
DATA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED TRADE WINDS WERE ONLY
AROUND 20 KT OFF COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT
OVER MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH THU. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE
OF ERIKA...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN OFF WESTERN
VENEZUELA AND THE ABC ISLANDS BY FRI...SHIFTING WEST TO NE
COLOMBIA BY THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 10 FT BY LATE SAT
OFF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS FROM 30N69W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE ALONG THIS
TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACTIVE FARTHER
NORTH...N OF GRAND BAHAMA ALONG 78W...AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS NOTED IN THE
WIND FIELD EXTENDING FROM 30N55W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...CURRENTLY AROUND 700 NM ESE
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ERIKA IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE FRI...BUT THERE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE SO FAR ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ERIKA.

LINGERS ACROSS THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM NEAR
30N66W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45-60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TODAY AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING
REGAINS CONTROL OF THE BASIN. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT NEAR
THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH
WINDS. RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATER TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING ERIKA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON ERIKA...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST BULLETIN FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WTNT25 KNHC/TMCAT5 AND AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING WED NIGHT INTO THU.
.AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
60W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 251839
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
239 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
TO SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR 30N90W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND CONTINUES ON TO NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS. THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS FAIRLY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
ACTIVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THESE STORMS. THE SUPPORTING UPPER
TROUGH REACHES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE N CENTRAL GULF
THEN TO THE FAR SW GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOTED AT THE BASE OF TROUGH OFF VERACRUZ THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FAIRLY LIMITED
WITH BUOYS INDICATING ONLY AROUND 1 TO 3 FT IN MOST AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...STALLING FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY TO NE MEXICO BY EARLY
THU...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE BY FRI. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE NE GULF AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR THE LOOP CURRENT.
MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPLIED BY THE
REMNANT TROUGH OF DANNY...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SE GULF FRI.
SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...RANGING 1 TO 3 FT FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH THE WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE CARIBBEAN...
MEDIUM TROPICAL N ATLC.

ACTIVE CONVECTION PERSIST OVER PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN
WATERS AS THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF DANNY MOVE NW ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS IS BEING ANALYZED AS A TROUGH...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND CUBA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA PERSISTS ABOUT 700 NM ESE OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. WHILE LOOKING SOMEWHAT WEAKER RECENTLY...ERIKA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE WNW...REACHING THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AS A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY THU. WHILE THIS STORM
APPEARS TO AT LEAST TEMPORARILY WEAKENING AS FAR AS ITS
PRESENTATION ON VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AN ASCAT PASS
FROM 12 UTC INDICATED THAT THERE WERE STILL FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
AROUND ERIKA...WITH WINDS TO 25 KT REACHING AS FAR AS 270 NM TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...IN CONTRAST TO THE VERY SMALL
DANNY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON ERIKA...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
BULLETIN FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WTNT25 KNHC/TMCAT5
AND AT HURRICANES.GOV.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN IMPACT AREA AROUND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO THE EAST OF LEEWARDS...A RELATIVELY WEAK
PRES PATTERN IS SETTING UP OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN DUE TO THE
TRACK OF DANNY AND NOW ERIKA TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WEAKENING
AND DISPLACING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT
DATA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED TRADE WINDS WERE ONLY
AROUND 20 KT OFF COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT
OVER MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH THU. A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE
OF ERIKA...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN OFF WESTERN
VENEZUELA AND THE ABC ISLANDS BY FRI...SHIFTING WEST TO NE
COLOMBIA BY THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 10 FT BY LATE SAT
OFF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS FROM 30N69W TO THE NW BAHAMAS. A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE ALONG THIS
TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACTIVE FARTHER
NORTH...N OF GRAND BAHAMA ALONG 78W...AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS NOTED IN THE
WIND FIELD EXTENDING FROM 30N55W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTH THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...CURRENTLY AROUND 700 NM ESE
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ERIKA IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE FRI...BUT THERE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW
CONFIDENCE SO FAR ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ERIKA.

LINGERS ACROSS THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM NEAR
30N66W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45-60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TODAY AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING
REGAINS CONTROL OF THE BASIN. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT NEAR
THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH
WINDS. RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATER TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING ERIKA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON ERIKA...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST BULLETIN FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WTNT25 KNHC/TMCAT5 AND AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING WED NIGHT INTO THU.
.AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
60W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 250730
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES 1016 MB IS LOCATED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W WITH A
COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE N CENTRAL GULF FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W TO NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER AT
29.5N94W. A BAND OF TSTMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING
WITHIN 75 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION
LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ARE
PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
REACH FROM NEAR APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO 27.5N90W TO THE TEXAS
COAST NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS EVENING...FROM 30N83W TO 26N90W TO
28N97W WED MORNING...THEN WILL STALL FROM 30N83W TO 25N90W TO
28N96W BY WED EVENING WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRI MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL THEN DRIFT BACK TO THE NW THROUGH
SAT...DISSIPATING ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF SAT EVENING.
LIGHT TO MODERATE N-NE WINS AND 2-3 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE
FRONT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 FT OR LESS E OF
THE FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DANNY ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS A TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REACHING 85W SAT MORNING...THEN REACHING
88W SUN MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE NE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
WAVE SHIFTING TO THE E-SE IN ITS WAKE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE CARIBBEAN...
LOW TO MEDIUM TROPICAL N ATLC.

THE REMNANTS OF DANNY ARE LOCATED NEAR 16N65.6W 1010 MB AS OF 06
UTC OR ABOUT 100-110 NM SE-S OF PUERTO RICO. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
IS LOCATED BETWEEN 90-240 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE REMNANTS
MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND APPROACHING EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. THE REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH OR
REMNANT TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE CONTINUE OFF
TO THE NW. LIGHT NE-E WINDS PREVAIL IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH
MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE
S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE FRESH TRADES PREVAIL...UP TO STRONG NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT (TUE NIGHT)...APPROACHING THE NE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WED AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING NEAR OR N OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WITH BUILDING SEAS IN THE E
CARIBBEAN WELL OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE INFLUENCE OF ERIKA DUE TO
RIDGING WHICH WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF ERIKA WITH A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT SETTING UP. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE
E CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT...SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY
SAT MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO SUN MORNING.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A PESKY TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N66W
TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45-60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TODAY AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING
REGAINS CONTROL OF THE BASIN. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT NEAR
THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH
WINDS. RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATER TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN HILL AS ERIKA APPROACHES THE SE
PORTION OF THE BASIN LATE TONIGHT (TUE NIGHT). THE LATEST FORECAST
TAKES ERIKA NEAR OR JUST N OF THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THU...
APPROACHING THE TURKS AND CAICOS FRI...THEN POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
THE SE BAHAMAS SAT. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH
REMAINS BUT AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
FROM SE TO NW BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING WED NIGHT.
.AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
60W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 250730
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES 1016 MB IS LOCATED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W WITH A
COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE N CENTRAL GULF FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W TO NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER AT
29.5N94W. A BAND OF TSTMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING
WITHIN 75 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION
LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ARE
PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
REACH FROM NEAR APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO 27.5N90W TO THE TEXAS
COAST NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS EVENING...FROM 30N83W TO 26N90W TO
28N97W WED MORNING...THEN WILL STALL FROM 30N83W TO 25N90W TO
28N96W BY WED EVENING WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRI MORNING.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL THEN DRIFT BACK TO THE NW THROUGH
SAT...DISSIPATING ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF SAT EVENING.
LIGHT TO MODERATE N-NE WINS AND 2-3 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE
FRONT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 FT OR LESS E OF
THE FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DANNY ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS A TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REACHING 85W SAT MORNING...THEN REACHING
88W SUN MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE NE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
WAVE SHIFTING TO THE E-SE IN ITS WAKE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE CARIBBEAN...
LOW TO MEDIUM TROPICAL N ATLC.

THE REMNANTS OF DANNY ARE LOCATED NEAR 16N65.6W 1010 MB AS OF 06
UTC OR ABOUT 100-110 NM SE-S OF PUERTO RICO. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
IS LOCATED BETWEEN 90-240 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE REMNANTS
MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND APPROACHING EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. THE REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH OR
REMNANT TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE CONTINUE OFF
TO THE NW. LIGHT NE-E WINDS PREVAIL IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH
MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE
S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE FRESH TRADES PREVAIL...UP TO STRONG NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT (TUE NIGHT)...APPROACHING THE NE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WED AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING NEAR OR N OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WITH BUILDING SEAS IN THE E
CARIBBEAN WELL OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE INFLUENCE OF ERIKA DUE TO
RIDGING WHICH WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF ERIKA WITH A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT SETTING UP. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE
E CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT...SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY
SAT MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO SUN MORNING.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A PESKY TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N66W
TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45-60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TODAY AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING
REGAINS CONTROL OF THE BASIN. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT NEAR
THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH
WINDS. RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATER TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN HILL AS ERIKA APPROACHES THE SE
PORTION OF THE BASIN LATE TONIGHT (TUE NIGHT). THE LATEST FORECAST
TAKES ERIKA NEAR OR JUST N OF THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THU...
APPROACHING THE TURKS AND CAICOS FRI...THEN POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
THE SE BAHAMAS SAT. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH
REMAINS BUT AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
FROM SE TO NW BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING WED NIGHT.
.AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
60W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




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