Home > Products > Valid Products > MIM

000
AGXX40 KNHC 200735
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
235 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 29N94W
TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE SAME
LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 6-7 FT
BASED ON BUOYS OBSERVATIONS. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SE WATERS AND NEAR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE WEAK LOW PRES
WILL TRACK ENE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS NEAR SE
LOUISIANA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO TODAY...THEN WILL STALL AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 86W WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. BY LATE MON...SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF REGION AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO ENTER THE NW
GULF WATERS TUE MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT TO 25-30 KT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NW GULF. WINDS
WILL THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AS THE FRONT REACHES
FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO TUE EVENING. THE GFS MODEL
SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30-40 KT ACROSS ZONE GMZ017 BY TUE
EVENING...AND ACROSS ZONE GMZ023 TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE
GFS PROBABILITIES NOW REACH 40 PERCENT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED ZONES TUE
EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT...
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED
MORNING...AND WILL MOVE EAST OF AREA LATE WED. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AREA EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF WATERS WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12-13 FT BY WED
MORNING.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN EARLIER ASCAT PASSES PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 22N86W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT
OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE NORTH ANCHORED ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS OF
8-9 FT. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
TODAY AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS WESTWARD. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN INTO MON AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 0600-1200 UTC WITH
BUILDING SEAS OF 8-11 FT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT. SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 8 FT WITH NE SWELL ACROSS ZONE AMZ037 MON INTO TUE
BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE TUE.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 25N WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE NOTED S OF 25N. SEAS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT E OF THE
BAHAMAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS. THE FRONT WILL REACH
FROM 31N74W TO NE FLORIDA ON SUN MORNING...BEFORE MOVING N OF THE
AREA SUN NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATES
THE WATERS S OF 27N DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
S OF 22N W OF 70W. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST REGION BY TUE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
NW WATERS TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOUTH
WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND BUILDING SEAS TO 7-9 FT. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 25-30 KT BY WED MORNING
ACROSS ZONE AMZ111...AND MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SW N ATLC LATE WED. THE
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA WED NIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 10-12 FT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 200735
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
235 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 29N94W
TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE SAME
LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 6-7 FT
BASED ON BUOYS OBSERVATIONS. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SE WATERS AND NEAR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE WEAK LOW PRES
WILL TRACK ENE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS NEAR SE
LOUISIANA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO TODAY...THEN WILL STALL AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 86W WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. BY LATE MON...SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF REGION AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO ENTER THE NW
GULF WATERS TUE MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT TO 25-30 KT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NW GULF. WINDS
WILL THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AS THE FRONT REACHES
FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO TUE EVENING. THE GFS MODEL
SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30-40 KT ACROSS ZONE GMZ017 BY TUE
EVENING...AND ACROSS ZONE GMZ023 TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE
GFS PROBABILITIES NOW REACH 40 PERCENT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED ZONES TUE
EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT...
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED
MORNING...AND WILL MOVE EAST OF AREA LATE WED. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AREA EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF WATERS WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12-13 FT BY WED
MORNING.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN EARLIER ASCAT PASSES PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 22N86W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT
OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE NORTH ANCHORED ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS OF
8-9 FT. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
TODAY AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS WESTWARD. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN INTO MON AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 0600-1200 UTC WITH
BUILDING SEAS OF 8-11 FT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT. SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 8 FT WITH NE SWELL ACROSS ZONE AMZ037 MON INTO TUE
BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE TUE.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 25N WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE NOTED S OF 25N. SEAS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT E OF THE
BAHAMAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS. THE FRONT WILL REACH
FROM 31N74W TO NE FLORIDA ON SUN MORNING...BEFORE MOVING N OF THE
AREA SUN NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATES
THE WATERS S OF 27N DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
S OF 22N W OF 70W. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST REGION BY TUE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
NW WATERS TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOUTH
WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND BUILDING SEAS TO 7-9 FT. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 25-30 KT BY WED MORNING
ACROSS ZONE AMZ111...AND MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SW N ATLC LATE WED. THE
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA WED NIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 10-12 FT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 200735
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
235 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 29N94W
TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE SAME
LOW PRES ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 6-7 FT
BASED ON BUOYS OBSERVATIONS. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SE WATERS AND NEAR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WHERE THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE WEAK LOW PRES
WILL TRACK ENE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS NEAR SE
LOUISIANA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO TODAY...THEN WILL STALL AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 86W WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. BY LATE MON...SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF REGION AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO ENTER THE NW
GULF WATERS TUE MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT TO 25-30 KT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NW GULF. WINDS
WILL THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AS THE FRONT REACHES
FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO TUE EVENING. THE GFS MODEL
SUGGESTS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30-40 KT ACROSS ZONE GMZ017 BY TUE
EVENING...AND ACROSS ZONE GMZ023 TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE
GFS PROBABILITIES NOW REACH 40 PERCENT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED ZONES TUE
EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT...
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED
MORNING...AND WILL MOVE EAST OF AREA LATE WED. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AREA EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF WATERS WITH BUILDING SEAS UP TO 12-13 FT BY WED
MORNING.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN EARLIER ASCAT PASSES PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 22N86W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT
OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE NORTH ANCHORED ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS OF
8-9 FT. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
TODAY AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS WESTWARD. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN INTO MON AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT
ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 0600-1200 UTC WITH
BUILDING SEAS OF 8-11 FT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT. SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO REACH 8 FT WITH NE SWELL ACROSS ZONE AMZ037 MON INTO TUE
BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE TUE.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 25N WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE NOTED S OF 25N. SEAS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT E OF THE
BAHAMAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW WATERS
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS. THE FRONT WILL REACH
FROM 31N74W TO NE FLORIDA ON SUN MORNING...BEFORE MOVING N OF THE
AREA SUN NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATES
THE WATERS S OF 27N DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
S OF 22N W OF 70W. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST REGION BY TUE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
NW WATERS TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOUTH
WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND BUILDING SEAS TO 7-9 FT. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 25-30 KT BY WED MORNING
ACROSS ZONE AMZ111...AND MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SW N ATLC LATE WED. THE
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL CUBA WED NIGHT. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 10-12 FT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 191933
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
233 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE INFLUENCES THE EASTERN GULF WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MODERATE S-SE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE MOST
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. A
1013 MB LOW PRES IS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 28N98W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 29N90W TO 28N86W. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH SAT MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS NE. THE LOW WILL REACH
THE COAST OF SE LOUISIANA FRI NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ORLEANS TO NEAR
TAMPICO SAT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SAT WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO ENTER THE
NW GULF TUE MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT TO 25-30 KT AS IT REACHES FROM SE LOUISIANA TO
NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. THEN...THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
BY TUE NIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE N-NW WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE TUE EVENING AND NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE GFES PROBABILITIES
REACH A RANGE OF 10-20 PERCENT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RECENT ASCAT PASSES THIS MORNING PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH
TO STRONG E-NE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...JUST
SOUTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 20N87W TO 17N86W TO 14N83W. THESE WINDS ARE THE
RESULT OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE NORTH ANCHORED
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EARLY
EVENING...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W-78W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
WILL PULSE THROUGH LATE SAT AND INCREASE SUN THROUGH TUE AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 7 TO 11 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT. SEAS MAY REACH 8
FT WITH NE SWELL ACROSS ZONE AMZ037 ON MON INTO TUE BEFORE
SUBSIDING TUE NIGHT.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO 26N71W AND WILL
MOVE E OF THE AREA BY SAT. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES
MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ON
EITHER SIDE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT BASED ON BUOYS...A FEW SHIP
OBS...AND A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. WINDS INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF 22N...GENERALLY BETWEEN 60W-75W. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONT...BUT WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FAR NW
CORNER OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. ONCE THIS LOW
DISSIPATES BY SUN NIGHT LATE...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE SW NORTH ATLC IN ADVANCE OF A NEW LOW PRES AREA MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST MON WHICH WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
WESTERN WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN DRAG A WEAK FRONT NORTH
OF 30N TUE. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NW PART OF
THE FORECAST REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MARINE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY WED.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 191933
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
233 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE INFLUENCES THE EASTERN GULF WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MODERATE S-SE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE MOST
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. A
1013 MB LOW PRES IS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 28N98W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 29N90W TO 28N86W. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH SAT MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS NE. THE LOW WILL REACH
THE COAST OF SE LOUISIANA FRI NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ORLEANS TO NEAR
TAMPICO SAT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SAT WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO ENTER THE
NW GULF TUE MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT TO 25-30 KT AS IT REACHES FROM SE LOUISIANA TO
NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. THEN...THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
BY TUE NIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE N-NW WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE TUE EVENING AND NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE GFES PROBABILITIES
REACH A RANGE OF 10-20 PERCENT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RECENT ASCAT PASSES THIS MORNING PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH
TO STRONG E-NE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...JUST
SOUTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 20N87W TO 17N86W TO 14N83W. THESE WINDS ARE THE
RESULT OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE NORTH ANCHORED
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EARLY
EVENING...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W-78W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
WILL PULSE THROUGH LATE SAT AND INCREASE SUN THROUGH TUE AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 7 TO 11 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT. SEAS MAY REACH 8
FT WITH NE SWELL ACROSS ZONE AMZ037 ON MON INTO TUE BEFORE
SUBSIDING TUE NIGHT.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO 26N71W AND WILL
MOVE E OF THE AREA BY SAT. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES
MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ON
EITHER SIDE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT BASED ON BUOYS...A FEW SHIP
OBS...AND A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. WINDS INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF 22N...GENERALLY BETWEEN 60W-75W. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONT...BUT WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FAR NW
CORNER OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. ONCE THIS LOW
DISSIPATES BY SUN NIGHT LATE...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE SW NORTH ATLC IN ADVANCE OF A NEW LOW PRES AREA MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST MON WHICH WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
WESTERN WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN DRAG A WEAK FRONT NORTH
OF 30N TUE. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NW PART OF
THE FORECAST REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MARINE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY WED.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 191933
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
233 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE INFLUENCES THE EASTERN GULF WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MODERATE S-SE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE MOST
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. A
1013 MB LOW PRES IS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 28N98W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 29N90W TO 28N86W. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH SAT MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS NE. THE LOW WILL REACH
THE COAST OF SE LOUISIANA FRI NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ORLEANS TO NEAR
TAMPICO SAT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SAT WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO ENTER THE
NW GULF TUE MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT TO 25-30 KT AS IT REACHES FROM SE LOUISIANA TO
NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. THEN...THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
BY TUE NIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE N-NW WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE TUE EVENING AND NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE GFES PROBABILITIES
REACH A RANGE OF 10-20 PERCENT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RECENT ASCAT PASSES THIS MORNING PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH
TO STRONG E-NE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...JUST
SOUTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 20N87W TO 17N86W TO 14N83W. THESE WINDS ARE THE
RESULT OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE NORTH ANCHORED
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EARLY
EVENING...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W-78W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
WILL PULSE THROUGH LATE SAT AND INCREASE SUN THROUGH TUE AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 7 TO 11 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT. SEAS MAY REACH 8
FT WITH NE SWELL ACROSS ZONE AMZ037 ON MON INTO TUE BEFORE
SUBSIDING TUE NIGHT.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO 26N71W AND WILL
MOVE E OF THE AREA BY SAT. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES
MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ON
EITHER SIDE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT BASED ON BUOYS...A FEW SHIP
OBS...AND A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. WINDS INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF 22N...GENERALLY BETWEEN 60W-75W. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONT...BUT WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FAR NW
CORNER OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. ONCE THIS LOW
DISSIPATES BY SUN NIGHT LATE...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE SW NORTH ATLC IN ADVANCE OF A NEW LOW PRES AREA MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST MON WHICH WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
WESTERN WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN DRAG A WEAK FRONT NORTH
OF 30N TUE. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NW PART OF
THE FORECAST REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MARINE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY WED.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 191933
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
233 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE INFLUENCES THE EASTERN GULF WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MODERATE S-SE WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE MOST
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. A
1013 MB LOW PRES IS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 28N98W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 29N90W TO 28N86W. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH SAT MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS NE. THE LOW WILL REACH
THE COAST OF SE LOUISIANA FRI NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ORLEANS TO NEAR
TAMPICO SAT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SAT WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO ENTER THE
NW GULF TUE MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT TO 25-30 KT AS IT REACHES FROM SE LOUISIANA TO
NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. THEN...THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
BY TUE NIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF MINIMAL GALE FORCE N-NW WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE TUE EVENING AND NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE GFES PROBABILITIES
REACH A RANGE OF 10-20 PERCENT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RECENT ASCAT PASSES THIS MORNING PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH
TO STRONG E-NE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...JUST
SOUTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 20N87W TO 17N86W TO 14N83W. THESE WINDS ARE THE
RESULT OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE NORTH ANCHORED
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EARLY
EVENING...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W-78W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
WILL PULSE THROUGH LATE SAT AND INCREASE SUN THROUGH TUE AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 7 TO 11 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT. SEAS MAY REACH 8
FT WITH NE SWELL ACROSS ZONE AMZ037 ON MON INTO TUE BEFORE
SUBSIDING TUE NIGHT.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO 26N71W AND WILL
MOVE E OF THE AREA BY SAT. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES
MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ON
EITHER SIDE WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT BASED ON BUOYS...A FEW SHIP
OBS...AND A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. WINDS INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF 22N...GENERALLY BETWEEN 60W-75W. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK FRONT...BUT WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FAR NW
CORNER OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. ONCE THIS LOW
DISSIPATES BY SUN NIGHT LATE...RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE SW NORTH ATLC IN ADVANCE OF A NEW LOW PRES AREA MOVING OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST MON WHICH WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
WESTERN WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN DRAG A WEAK FRONT NORTH
OF 30N TUE. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NW PART OF
THE FORECAST REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MARINE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY WED.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 190718
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
218 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE
MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE
WINDS. A 1014 MB LOW PRES IS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 27N98W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N94W TO 25N87W.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT MORNING AS THE LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTH TEXAS TRACKS NE. THE LOW WILL REACH THE COAST OF SE
LOUISIANA FRI NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ORLEANS TO NEAR TAMPICO SAT...THEN
BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO EASTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT ON SAT WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO ENTER
THE NW GULF TUE MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT TO 25-30 KT AS IT REACHES FROM SE LOUISIANA TO
NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. THEN...THE FRONT WILL
EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
BY TUE NIGHT. WINDS MAY REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE SW GULF TUE
EVENING AND NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE GFES PROBABILITIES REACH 20
PERCENT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN EARLIER ASCAT PASSES PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...JUST SOUTH OF
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND NEAR THE
NORTHERN END OF A TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N84W TO 15N83W TO 12N83W. THESE WINDS ARE
THE RESULT OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE JUST N OF
THE BASIN AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES WILL PULSE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING
INTO A RANGE OF 8-10 FT. EXPECT INCREASING TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH ALONG 60W.

EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT. SEAS MAY REACH 8
FT WITH NE SWELL ACROSS ZONE AMZ037 ON MON.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NW
BAHAMAS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATE TODAY AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT BASED ON BUOYS
AND FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS. WINDS INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE WATERS
S OF 22N...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO
EARLY SUN. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE N OF AREA ON MON. A LOW PRES AREA
MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MON WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
NW WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN DRAG A WEAK FRONT NORTH OF 30N
TUE. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE
FORECAST REGION TUE NIGHT AND WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MARINE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY EARLY
WED MORNING.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 190718
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
218 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE
MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE
WINDS. A 1014 MB LOW PRES IS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 27N98W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 28N94W TO 25N87W.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT MORNING AS THE LOW PRES CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTH TEXAS TRACKS NE. THE LOW WILL REACH THE COAST OF SE
LOUISIANA FRI NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF.
THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ORLEANS TO NEAR TAMPICO SAT...THEN
BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO EASTERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT ON SAT WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO ENTER
THE NW GULF TUE MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT TO 25-30 KT AS IT REACHES FROM SE LOUISIANA TO
NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO EARLY TUE AFTERNOON. THEN...THE FRONT WILL
EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
BY TUE NIGHT. WINDS MAY REACH GALE FORCE ACROSS THE SW GULF TUE
EVENING AND NIGHT. CURRENTLY...THE GFES PROBABILITIES REACH 20
PERCENT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN EARLIER ASCAT PASSES PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...JUST SOUTH OF
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND NEAR THE
NORTHERN END OF A TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N84W TO 15N83W TO 12N83W. THESE WINDS ARE
THE RESULT OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE JUST N OF
THE BASIN AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES WILL PULSE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING
INTO A RANGE OF 8-10 FT. EXPECT INCREASING TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE AS HIGH PRES N OF AREA
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH ALONG 60W.

EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT. SEAS MAY REACH 8
FT WITH NE SWELL ACROSS ZONE AMZ037 ON MON.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NW
BAHAMAS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATE TODAY AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5 FT BASED ON BUOYS
AND FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS. WINDS INCREASE SOME ACROSS THE WATERS
S OF 22N...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO
EARLY SUN. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE N OF AREA ON MON. A LOW PRES AREA
MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MON WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
NW WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT...THEN DRAG A WEAK FRONT NORTH OF 30N
TUE. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE
FORECAST REGION TUE NIGHT AND WED AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MARINE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY EARLY
WED MORNING.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 181819
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
119 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NAPLES FLORIDA WSW TO 25N87W...THEN BECOMES A WARM
FRONT NW TO GALVESTON BAY. THE WARM FRONT ATTACHES TO WEAK 1014 LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 27N98W. HIGH PRES IS
BRIDGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION SOUTHWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE BASIN...
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...GENERALLY LOCATED IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE...SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO
SE...TO MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF...WINDS S OF
THE WARM FRONT. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE E
OF 94W WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER W OF 94W IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT
WITHIN THE AREA OF STRONGEST RETURN FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N-NE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WATERS THROUGH FRI AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION S TO
THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK E-NE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
FROM NE TEXAS TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SAT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD IN AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THE LOW
AND WITH THE FORECAST POSITIONS OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF BEGINNING FRI EVENING.
BY SAT...AS THE LOW APPROACHES NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THERE SW TO NEAR TAMPICO...
THEN BECOMING STATIONARY WHILE WEAKENING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
SW TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN. ANY REMNANTS OF THE
BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE NW TIP OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MON AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE WEST.

WITH RESPECT TO WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH A BRIEF ONSET OF NORTHERLY 15-20 KT BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS BORDERING THE COASTAL OFFSHORE
WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRES BUILDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRES IS CONDUCIVE FOR INITIATING SUCH WINDS. THESE WINDS THEN
QUICKLY WEAKEN TO 10-15 KT SAT AFTERNOON AS THEY BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE NE IN DIRECTION...AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 10 KT LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. BY MON...MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
RE-ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. SEAS IN THE WESTERN GULF
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT. SEAS SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TO 2-4 FT SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE...SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...EXTENDING SE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
NORTHERN NICARAGUA. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALED A SWATH
OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS SW OF CUBA TO 17N BETWEEN 77W-83W. A PORTION
OF THE SAME SWATH OF THE SATELLITE INSTRUMENT SUGGESTED SIMILAR
WINDS EXISTED ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATION INDICATES
THAT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD SW
OF CUBA AND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...BUT IN A PULSING FASHION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING INTO A RANGE OF
8-10FT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...BUOY AND ASCAT DATA ARE SHOWING
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT INCLUDING ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 17N55W TO GUADELOUPE THEN W TO NEAR 14N67W. SEAS
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR
LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 5-7 FT SEAS
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS IN THE
TROPICAL N ATLC ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE IN A NE TO E SWELL
COMPONENT PER CURRENT BUOY DATA AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. THESE
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THAT SIMILAR RANGE DURING THE PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED E OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N53W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W-SW THROUGH
26N65W TO 25N75W. TO THE NORTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND THEN WESTWARD STATIONARY
TO NEAR PORT EVERGLADES. RECENT ASCAT PASSES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT INDICATED GENERALLY GENTLE W-NW WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SW WINDS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT.
BUOYS...SHIPS...AND RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES SHOWED SEAS IN THE
RANGE OF 4-6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS AND LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT SW OF
THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR
28N65W TO 26N72W FRI...WITH ANY REMNANTS MOVING E OF THE AREA BY
SAT. HIGH PRES WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE
OF THE BOUNDARY SAT NIGHT...BUT SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUN IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE FAR NW CORNER
OF THE AREA SAT LATE INTO EARLY SUN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
UPPER FLOW WILL NOT BE ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THIS NEXT COLD
FRONT TO ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST WATERS VERY FAR AS IT MOST
LIKELY WILL BECOME STATIONARY QUICKLY...REMAINING RELATIVELY
WEAK...ALONG 30N/31N THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 181819
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
119 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NAPLES FLORIDA WSW TO 25N87W...THEN BECOMES A WARM
FRONT NW TO GALVESTON BAY. THE WARM FRONT ATTACHES TO WEAK 1014 LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 27N98W. HIGH PRES IS
BRIDGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION SOUTHWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE BASIN...
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...GENERALLY LOCATED IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE...SHOWS GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO
SE...TO MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF...WINDS S OF
THE WARM FRONT. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE E
OF 94W WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER W OF 94W IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT
WITHIN THE AREA OF STRONGEST RETURN FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N-NE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WATERS THROUGH FRI AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION S TO
THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK E-NE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
FROM NE TEXAS TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SAT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD IN AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THE LOW
AND WITH THE FORECAST POSITIONS OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVE
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF BEGINNING FRI EVENING.
BY SAT...AS THE LOW APPROACHES NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THERE SW TO NEAR TAMPICO...
THEN BECOMING STATIONARY WHILE WEAKENING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
SW TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN. ANY REMNANTS OF THE
BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE NW TIP OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MON AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE WEST.

WITH RESPECT TO WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH A BRIEF ONSET OF NORTHERLY 15-20 KT BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS BORDERING THE COASTAL OFFSHORE
WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRES BUILDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW PRES IS CONDUCIVE FOR INITIATING SUCH WINDS. THESE WINDS THEN
QUICKLY WEAKEN TO 10-15 KT SAT AFTERNOON AS THEY BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO THE NE IN DIRECTION...AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 10 KT LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. BY MON...MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
RE-ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. SEAS IN THE WESTERN GULF
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT. SEAS SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TO 2-4 FT SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE...SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...EXTENDING SE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
NORTHERN NICARAGUA. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALED A SWATH
OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS SW OF CUBA TO 17N BETWEEN 77W-83W. A PORTION
OF THE SAME SWATH OF THE SATELLITE INSTRUMENT SUGGESTED SIMILAR
WINDS EXISTED ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATION INDICATES
THAT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD SW
OF CUBA AND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...BUT IN A PULSING FASHION DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING INTO A RANGE OF
8-10FT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...BUOY AND ASCAT DATA ARE SHOWING
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT INCLUDING ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 17N55W TO GUADELOUPE THEN W TO NEAR 14N67W. SEAS
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR
LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 5-7 FT SEAS
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS IN THE
TROPICAL N ATLC ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE IN A NE TO E SWELL
COMPONENT PER CURRENT BUOY DATA AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. THESE
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THAT SIMILAR RANGE DURING THE PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED E OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N53W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W-SW THROUGH
26N65W TO 25N75W. TO THE NORTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 31N64W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND THEN WESTWARD STATIONARY
TO NEAR PORT EVERGLADES. RECENT ASCAT PASSES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT INDICATED GENERALLY GENTLE W-NW WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SW WINDS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT.
BUOYS...SHIPS...AND RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES SHOWED SEAS IN THE
RANGE OF 4-6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS AND LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT SW OF
THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR
28N65W TO 26N72W FRI...WITH ANY REMNANTS MOVING E OF THE AREA BY
SAT. HIGH PRES WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE
OF THE BOUNDARY SAT NIGHT...BUT SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUN IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE FAR NW CORNER
OF THE AREA SAT LATE INTO EARLY SUN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
UPPER FLOW WILL NOT BE ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THIS NEXT COLD
FRONT TO ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST WATERS VERY FAR AS IT MOST
LIKELY WILL BECOME STATIONARY QUICKLY...REMAINING RELATIVELY
WEAK...ALONG 30N/31N THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 181111 RRA
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
258 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DAYS 4 AND 5 WITH FRONTAL POSITION.

06Z PRELIMINARY SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM FORT MYERS SW TO 25N90W...THEN BECOMES A
WARM FRONT NW TO INLAND TEXAS JUST N OF GALVESTON...AND SW TO
WEAK LOW PRES OF 1014 MB OVER S TEXAS. HIGH PRES IS BRIDGING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER
PASSES FROM 0300 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOW GENTLE NE-E WIND FLOW N OF
THE FRONT E OF 90W. GENTLE E WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT E OF
90W...AND MOSTLY SE-S WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN GULF S OF THE
WARM FRONT. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE WITH
SEAS NOW HAVING BUILT TO 4-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF UNDER THE
MODERATE SE-S FLOW.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AND NE TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH FRI AS JET STREAM ENERGY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PERSIST OVER EASTERN TEXAS. WITH AMPLE SLY MOIST FLOW COMING IN
FROM THE WESTERN GULF AND WITH THE ENERGY ALOFT IN PLACE...THE
LOW PRES WILL BE REINFORCED OR REFORM AS TRACKS NE-E ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS FROM NE TEXAS TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD IN
AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THE LOW AND WITH THE FORECAST POSITIONS
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF BEGINNING FRI
EVENING. BY SAT AS THE LOW APPROACHES NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM IT SW TO NEAR
TAMPICO...FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA SW TO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY EARLY SAT NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES
FROM APALACHEE BAY TO NEAR 26N89W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN...AND TO A
POSITION SLIGHTLY E FROM THERE ON MON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL
BE MEDIUM LATE SUN INTO MON WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IDENTITY...WHETHER ALL OF IT BECOMES STATIONARY AT THAT POINT OR
JUST THE NE PART REMAINS COLD. BASED ON UPPER LEVEL MODEL FLOW
GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS BY LATE SUN AND INTO MON THE UPPER FLOW
WILL BE MAINLY SWLY. THAT ALONG WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT BEING
ABOUT THE SAME ON EITHER SIDE OF IT...THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY
BE STALLED ALONG THE SAME POSITION AS THE ONE FROM MON.

WITH RESPECT TO WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH A BRIEF ONSET OF NLY 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS BORDERING THE COASTAL OFFSHORE
WATERS FRI NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING
EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AND AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES IS
CONDUCIVE FOR INITIATING SUCH WINDS. THESE WINDS THEN QUICKLY
WEAKEN TO 10-15 KT EARLY SAT AFTERNOON AS THEY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
THE NE IN DIRECTION...AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 10 KT LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. BY LATE SUN NIGHT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
BECOME SE AT MODERATE SPEEDS AND MORE SLY BY EARLY MON. GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL THAT DEVIATES FROM SHOWING THESE WINDS DIRECTIONS
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON AS IT SHOWS N-NE WINDS INSTEAD. SEAS IN
THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4-6
FT RANGE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH SOME POCKETS OF 6-7 FT SEAS
OR BRIEF INSTANCE OF SEAS TO 8 FT MAINLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS. SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND
TO 2-3 FT SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE 06Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE...SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0258 UTC LAST NIGHT
AGAIN REVEALED A SWATH OF NE 20-25 KT SW OF CUBA TO 18N BETWEEN
78W-81W. THE EDGE OF THE SAME SWATH SUGGESTED SIMILAR WINDS TO
EXIST ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODEL
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATION INDICATES
THAT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOURS SW OF CUBA
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...BUT
IN A PULSING FASHION DURING THE NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING TO 8 FT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...BUOY AND ASCAT DATA ARE SHOWING
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR
GENTLE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 19N55W SW TO GUADELOUPE AND
W AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRON15N74W. SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3
FT IN THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 5-7 FT SEAS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA
VERIFIED WELL WITH THE MWW3 GUIDANCE VALUES. SEAS IN THE TROPICAL
N ATLC ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE IN A NE TO E SWELL COMPONENT PER
CURRENT BUOY DATA AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. THESE SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN THAT SIMILAR RANGE DURING THE PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

06Z PRELIMINARY SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED
E OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N54W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W-SW
TO 27N65W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 25N80W. TO THE
NORTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS...A RATHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT NOW
EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO WEST PALM BEACH. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0120
UTC LAST NIGHT INDICATED GENERALLY W-NW 15-20 KT N OF 30N W OF
THE FRONT TO ABOUT 71W...WITH GENTLE NW WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE
FRONT. BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT
E OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR 5-7 FT SEAS IN NW SWELLS N OF 30N
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 71W. LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT ARE PRESENT SW
OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 28N65W TO
26N72W...AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO THE NW BAHAMAS
TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS MOVES ACROSS THE SE PORTION
FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE
BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BUT SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES
THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA EARLY ON SUN ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRES MOVING NEWD OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER FLOW WILL NOT BE ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THIS NEXT COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE MUCH TOWARDS THE FORECAST
WATERS AS IT MOST LIKELY WILL BECOME STATIOANRY JUST NW OF THE
BASIN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 180800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
258 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DAYS 4 AND 5 WITH FRONTAL POSITION.

06Z PRELIMINARY SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM FORT MYERS SW TO 25N90W...THEN BECOMES A
WARM FRONT NW TO INLAND TEXAS JUST N OF GALVESTON...AND SW TO
WEAK LOW PRES OF 1014 MB OVER S TEXAS. HIGH PRES IS BRIDGING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER
PASSES FROM 0300 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOW GENTLE NE-E WIND FLOW N OF
THE FRONT E OF 90W. GENTLE E WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT E OF
90W...AND MOSTLY SE-S WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN GULF S OF THE
WARM FRONT. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE WITH
SEAS NOW HAVING BUILT TO 4-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF UNDER THE
MODERATE SE-S FLOW.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AND NE TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH FRI AS JET STREAM ENERGY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PERSIST OVER EASTERN TEXAS. WITH AMPLE SLY MOIST FLOW COMING IN
FROM THE WESTERN GULF AND WITH THE ENERGY ALOFT IN PLACE...THE
LOW PRES WILL BE REINFORCED OR REFORM AS TRACKS NE-E ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS FROM NE TEXAS TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD IN
AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THE LOW AND WITH THE FORECAST POSITIONS
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF BEGINNING FRI
EVENING. BY SAT AS THE LOW APPROACHES NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM IT SW TO NEAR
TAMPICO...FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA SW TO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY EARLY SAT NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES
FROM APALACHEE BAY TO NEAR 26N89W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN...AND TO A
POSITION SLIGHTLY E FROM THERE ON MON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL
BE MEDIUM LATE SUN INTO MON WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IDENTITY...WHETHER ALL OF IT BECOMES STATIONARY AT THAT POINT OR
JUST THE NE PART REMAINS COLD. BASED ON UPPER LEVEL MODEL FLOW
GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS BY LATE SUN AND INTO MON THE UPPER FLOW
WILL BE MAINLY SWLY. THAT ALONG WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT BEING
ABOUT THE SAME ON EITHER SIDE OF IT...THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY
BE STALLED ALONG THE SAME POSITION AS THE ONE FROM MON.

WITH RESPECT TO WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH A BRIEF ONSET OF NLY 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS BORDERING THE COASTAL OFFSHORE
WATERS FRI NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING
EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AND AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES IS
CONDUCIVE FOR INITIATING SUCH WINDS. THESE WINDS THEN QUICKLY
WEAKEN TO 10-15 KT EARLY SAT AFTERNOON AS THEY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
THE NE IN DIRECTION...AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 10 KT LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. BY LATE SUN NIGHT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
BECOME SE AT MODERATE SPEEDS AND MORE SLY BY EARLY MON. GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL THAT DEVIATES FROM SHOWING THESE WINDS DIRECTIONS
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON AS IT SHOWS N-NE WINDS INSTEAD. SEAS IN
THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4-6
FT RANGE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH SOME POCKETS OF 6-7 FT SEAS
OR BRIEF INSTANCE OF SEAS TO 8 FT MAINLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS. SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND
TO 2-3 FT SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE 06Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE...SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0258 UTC LAST NIGHT
AGAIN REVEALED A SWATH OF NE 20-25 KT SW OF CUBA TO 18N BETWEEN
78W-81W. THE EDGE OF THE SAME SWATH SUGGESTED SIMILAR WINDS TO
EXIST ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODEL
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATION INDICATES
THAT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOURS SW OF CUBA
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...BUT
IN A PULSING FASHION DURING THE NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING TO 8 FT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...BUOY AND ASCAT DATA ARE SHOWING
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR
GENTLE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 19N55W SW TO GUADELOUPE AND
W AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRON15N74W. SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3
FT IN THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 5-7 FT SEAS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA
VERIFIED WELL WITH THE MWW3 GUIDANCE VALUES. SEAS IN THE TROPICAL
N ATLC ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE IN A NE TO E SWELL COMPONENT PER
CURRENT BUOY DATA AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. THESE SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN THAT SIMILAR RANGE DURING THE PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

06Z PRELIMINARY SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED
E OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N54W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W-SW
TO 27N65W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 25N80W. TO THE
NORTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS...A RATHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT NOW
EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO WEST PALM BEACH. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0120
UTC LAST NIGHT INDICATED GENERALLY W-NW 15-20 KT N OF 30N W OF
THE FRONT TO ABOUT 71W...WITH GENTLE NW WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE
FRONT. BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT
E OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR 5-7 FT SEAS IN NW SWELLS N OF 30N
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 71W. LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT ARE PRESENT SW
OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 28N65W TO
26N72W...AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO THE NW BAHAMAS
TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS MOVES ACROSS THE SE PORTION
FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE
BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BUT SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES
THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA EARLY ON SUN ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRES MOVING NEWD OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER FLOW WILL NOT BE ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THIS NEXT COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE MUCH TOWARDS THE FORECAST
WATERS AS IT MOST LIKELY WILL BECOME STATIOANRY JUST NW OF THE
BASIN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 180800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
258 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DAYS 4 AND 5 WITH FRONTAL POSITION.

06Z PRELIMINARY SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM FORT MYERS SW TO 25N90W...THEN BECOMES A
WARM FRONT NW TO INLAND TEXAS JUST N OF GALVESTON...AND SW TO
WEAK LOW PRES OF 1014 MB OVER S TEXAS. HIGH PRES IS BRIDGING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER
PASSES FROM 0300 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOW GENTLE NE-E WIND FLOW N OF
THE FRONT E OF 90W. GENTLE E WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT E OF
90W...AND MOSTLY SE-S WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN GULF S OF THE
WARM FRONT. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE WITH
SEAS NOW HAVING BUILT TO 4-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF UNDER THE
MODERATE SE-S FLOW.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AND NE TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH FRI AS JET STREAM ENERGY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PERSIST OVER EASTERN TEXAS. WITH AMPLE SLY MOIST FLOW COMING IN
FROM THE WESTERN GULF AND WITH THE ENERGY ALOFT IN PLACE...THE
LOW PRES WILL BE REINFORCED OR REFORM AS TRACKS NE-E ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS FROM NE TEXAS TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD IN
AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THE LOW AND WITH THE FORECAST POSITIONS
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF BEGINNING FRI
EVENING. BY SAT AS THE LOW APPROACHES NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM IT SW TO NEAR
TAMPICO...FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA SW TO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY EARLY SAT NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES
FROM APALACHEE BAY TO NEAR 26N89W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN...AND TO A
POSITION SLIGHTLY E FROM THERE ON MON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL
BE MEDIUM LATE SUN INTO MON WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IDENTITY...WHETHER ALL OF IT BECOMES STATIONARY AT THAT POINT OR
JUST THE NE PART REMAINS COLD. BASED ON UPPER LEVEL MODEL FLOW
GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS BY LATE SUN AND INTO MON THE UPPER FLOW
WILL BE MAINLY SWLY. THAT ALONG WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT BEING
ABOUT THE SAME ON EITHER SIDE OF IT...THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY
BE STALLED ALONG THE SAME POSITION AS THE ONE FROM MON.

WITH RESPECT TO WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH A BRIEF ONSET OF NLY 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS BORDERING THE COASTAL OFFSHORE
WATERS FRI NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING
EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AND AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES IS
CONDUCIVE FOR INITIATING SUCH WINDS. THESE WINDS THEN QUICKLY
WEAKEN TO 10-15 KT EARLY SAT AFTERNOON AS THEY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
THE NE IN DIRECTION...AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 10 KT LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. BY LATE SUN NIGHT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
BECOME SE AT MODERATE SPEEDS AND MORE SLY BY EARLY MON. GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL THAT DEVIATES FROM SHOWING THESE WINDS DIRECTIONS
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON AS IT SHOWS N-NE WINDS INSTEAD. SEAS IN
THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4-6
FT RANGE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH SOME POCKETS OF 6-7 FT SEAS
OR BRIEF INSTANCE OF SEAS TO 8 FT MAINLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS. SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND
TO 2-3 FT SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE 06Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE...SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0258 UTC LAST NIGHT
AGAIN REVEALED A SWATH OF NE 20-25 KT SW OF CUBA TO 18N BETWEEN
78W-81W. THE EDGE OF THE SAME SWATH SUGGESTED SIMILAR WINDS TO
EXIST ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODEL
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATION INDICATES
THAT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOURS SW OF CUBA
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...BUT
IN A PULSING FASHION DURING THE NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING TO 8 FT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...BUOY AND ASCAT DATA ARE SHOWING
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR
GENTLE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 19N55W SW TO GUADELOUPE AND
W AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRON15N74W. SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3
FT IN THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 5-7 FT SEAS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA
VERIFIED WELL WITH THE MWW3 GUIDANCE VALUES. SEAS IN THE TROPICAL
N ATLC ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE IN A NE TO E SWELL COMPONENT PER
CURRENT BUOY DATA AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. THESE SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN THAT SIMILAR RANGE DURING THE PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

06Z PRELIMINARY SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED
E OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N54W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W-SW
TO 27N65W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 25N80W. TO THE
NORTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS...A RATHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT NOW
EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO WEST PALM BEACH. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0120
UTC LAST NIGHT INDICATED GENERALLY W-NW 15-20 KT N OF 30N W OF
THE FRONT TO ABOUT 71W...WITH GENTLE NW WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE
FRONT. BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT
E OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR 5-7 FT SEAS IN NW SWELLS N OF 30N
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 71W. LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT ARE PRESENT SW
OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 28N65W TO
26N72W...AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO THE NW BAHAMAS
TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS MOVES ACROSS THE SE PORTION
FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE
BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BUT SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES
THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA EARLY ON SUN ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRES MOVING NEWD OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER FLOW WILL NOT BE ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THIS NEXT COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE MUCH TOWARDS THE FORECAST
WATERS AS IT MOST LIKELY WILL BECOME STATIOANRY JUST NW OF THE
BASIN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 180800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
258 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DAYS 4 AND 5 WITH FRONTAL POSITION.

06Z PRELIMINARY SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM FORT MYERS SW TO 25N90W...THEN BECOMES A
WARM FRONT NW TO INLAND TEXAS JUST N OF GALVESTON...AND SW TO
WEAK LOW PRES OF 1014 MB OVER S TEXAS. HIGH PRES IS BRIDGING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER
PASSES FROM 0300 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOW GENTLE NE-E WIND FLOW N OF
THE FRONT E OF 90W. GENTLE E WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT E OF
90W...AND MOSTLY SE-S WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN GULF S OF THE
WARM FRONT. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE WITH
SEAS NOW HAVING BUILT TO 4-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF UNDER THE
MODERATE SE-S FLOW.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AND NE TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH FRI AS JET STREAM ENERGY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PERSIST OVER EASTERN TEXAS. WITH AMPLE SLY MOIST FLOW COMING IN
FROM THE WESTERN GULF AND WITH THE ENERGY ALOFT IN PLACE...THE
LOW PRES WILL BE REINFORCED OR REFORM AS TRACKS NE-E ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS FROM NE TEXAS TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD IN
AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THE LOW AND WITH THE FORECAST POSITIONS
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF BEGINNING FRI
EVENING. BY SAT AS THE LOW APPROACHES NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM IT SW TO NEAR
TAMPICO...FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA SW TO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY EARLY SAT NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES
FROM APALACHEE BAY TO NEAR 26N89W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN...AND TO A
POSITION SLIGHTLY E FROM THERE ON MON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL
BE MEDIUM LATE SUN INTO MON WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IDENTITY...WHETHER ALL OF IT BECOMES STATIONARY AT THAT POINT OR
JUST THE NE PART REMAINS COLD. BASED ON UPPER LEVEL MODEL FLOW
GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS BY LATE SUN AND INTO MON THE UPPER FLOW
WILL BE MAINLY SWLY. THAT ALONG WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT BEING
ABOUT THE SAME ON EITHER SIDE OF IT...THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY
BE STALLED ALONG THE SAME POSITION AS THE ONE FROM MON.

WITH RESPECT TO WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH A BRIEF ONSET OF NLY 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS BORDERING THE COASTAL OFFSHORE
WATERS FRI NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING
EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AND AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES IS
CONDUCIVE FOR INITIATING SUCH WINDS. THESE WINDS THEN QUICKLY
WEAKEN TO 10-15 KT EARLY SAT AFTERNOON AS THEY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
THE NE IN DIRECTION...AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 10 KT LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. BY LATE SUN NIGHT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
BECOME SE AT MODERATE SPEEDS AND MORE SLY BY EARLY MON. GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL THAT DEVIATES FROM SHOWING THESE WINDS DIRECTIONS
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON AS IT SHOWS N-NE WINDS INSTEAD. SEAS IN
THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4-6
FT RANGE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH SOME POCKETS OF 6-7 FT SEAS
OR BRIEF INSTANCE OF SEAS TO 8 FT MAINLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS. SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND
TO 2-3 FT SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE 06Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE...SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0258 UTC LAST NIGHT
AGAIN REVEALED A SWATH OF NE 20-25 KT SW OF CUBA TO 18N BETWEEN
78W-81W. THE EDGE OF THE SAME SWATH SUGGESTED SIMILAR WINDS TO
EXIST ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODEL
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATION INDICATES
THAT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOURS SW OF CUBA
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...BUT
IN A PULSING FASHION DURING THE NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING TO 8 FT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...BUOY AND ASCAT DATA ARE SHOWING
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR
GENTLE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 19N55W SW TO GUADELOUPE AND
W AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRON15N74W. SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3
FT IN THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 5-7 FT SEAS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA
VERIFIED WELL WITH THE MWW3 GUIDANCE VALUES. SEAS IN THE TROPICAL
N ATLC ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE IN A NE TO E SWELL COMPONENT PER
CURRENT BUOY DATA AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. THESE SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN THAT SIMILAR RANGE DURING THE PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

06Z PRELIMINARY SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED
E OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N54W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W-SW
TO 27N65W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 25N80W. TO THE
NORTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS...A RATHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT NOW
EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO WEST PALM BEACH. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0120
UTC LAST NIGHT INDICATED GENERALLY W-NW 15-20 KT N OF 30N W OF
THE FRONT TO ABOUT 71W...WITH GENTLE NW WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE
FRONT. BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT
E OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR 5-7 FT SEAS IN NW SWELLS N OF 30N
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 71W. LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT ARE PRESENT SW
OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 28N65W TO
26N72W...AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO THE NW BAHAMAS
TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS MOVES ACROSS THE SE PORTION
FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE
BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BUT SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES
THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA EARLY ON SUN ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRES MOVING NEWD OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER FLOW WILL NOT BE ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THIS NEXT COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE MUCH TOWARDS THE FORECAST
WATERS AS IT MOST LIKELY WILL BECOME STATIOANRY JUST NW OF THE
BASIN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 180800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
258 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DAYS 4 AND 5 WITH FRONTAL POSITION.

06Z PRELIMINARY SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM FORT MYERS SW TO 25N90W...THEN BECOMES A
WARM FRONT NW TO INLAND TEXAS JUST N OF GALVESTON...AND SW TO
WEAK LOW PRES OF 1014 MB OVER S TEXAS. HIGH PRES IS BRIDGING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER
PASSES FROM 0300 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOW GENTLE NE-E WIND FLOW N OF
THE FRONT E OF 90W. GENTLE E WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT E OF
90W...AND MOSTLY SE-S WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN GULF S OF THE
WARM FRONT. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE WITH
SEAS NOW HAVING BUILT TO 4-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF UNDER THE
MODERATE SE-S FLOW.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AND NE TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH FRI AS JET STREAM ENERGY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PERSIST OVER EASTERN TEXAS. WITH AMPLE SLY MOIST FLOW COMING IN
FROM THE WESTERN GULF AND WITH THE ENERGY ALOFT IN PLACE...THE
LOW PRES WILL BE REINFORCED OR REFORM AS TRACKS NE-E ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS FROM NE TEXAS TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD IN
AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THE LOW AND WITH THE FORECAST POSITIONS
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF BEGINNING FRI
EVENING. BY SAT AS THE LOW APPROACHES NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM IT SW TO NEAR
TAMPICO...FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA SW TO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY EARLY SAT NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES
FROM APALACHEE BAY TO NEAR 26N89W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN...AND TO A
POSITION SLIGHTLY E FROM THERE ON MON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL
BE MEDIUM LATE SUN INTO MON WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IDENTITY...WHETHER ALL OF IT BECOMES STATIONARY AT THAT POINT OR
JUST THE NE PART REMAINS COLD. BASED ON UPPER LEVEL MODEL FLOW
GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS BY LATE SUN AND INTO MON THE UPPER FLOW
WILL BE MAINLY SWLY. THAT ALONG WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT BEING
ABOUT THE SAME ON EITHER SIDE OF IT...THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY
BE STALLED ALONG THE SAME POSITION AS THE ONE FROM MON.

WITH RESPECT TO WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH A BRIEF ONSET OF NLY 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS BORDERING THE COASTAL OFFSHORE
WATERS FRI NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING
EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AND AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES IS
CONDUCIVE FOR INITIATING SUCH WINDS. THESE WINDS THEN QUICKLY
WEAKEN TO 10-15 KT EARLY SAT AFTERNOON AS THEY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
THE NE IN DIRECTION...AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 10 KT LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. BY LATE SUN NIGHT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
BECOME SE AT MODERATE SPEEDS AND MORE SLY BY EARLY MON. GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL THAT DEVIATES FROM SHOWING THESE WINDS DIRECTIONS
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON AS IT SHOWS N-NE WINDS INSTEAD. SEAS IN
THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4-6
FT RANGE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH SOME POCKETS OF 6-7 FT SEAS
OR BRIEF INSTANCE OF SEAS TO 8 FT MAINLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS. SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND
TO 2-3 FT SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE 06Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE...SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0258 UTC LAST NIGHT
AGAIN REVEALED A SWATH OF NE 20-25 KT SW OF CUBA TO 18N BETWEEN
78W-81W. THE EDGE OF THE SAME SWATH SUGGESTED SIMILAR WINDS TO
EXIST ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODEL
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATION INDICATES
THAT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOURS SW OF CUBA
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...BUT
IN A PULSING FASHION DURING THE NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING TO 8 FT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...BUOY AND ASCAT DATA ARE SHOWING
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR
GENTLE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 19N55W SW TO GUADELOUPE AND
W AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRON15N74W. SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3
FT IN THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 5-7 FT SEAS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA
VERIFIED WELL WITH THE MWW3 GUIDANCE VALUES. SEAS IN THE TROPICAL
N ATLC ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE IN A NE TO E SWELL COMPONENT PER
CURRENT BUOY DATA AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. THESE SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN THAT SIMILAR RANGE DURING THE PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

06Z PRELIMINARY SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED
E OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N54W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W-SW
TO 27N65W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 25N80W. TO THE
NORTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS...A RATHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT NOW
EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO WEST PALM BEACH. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0120
UTC LAST NIGHT INDICATED GENERALLY W-NW 15-20 KT N OF 30N W OF
THE FRONT TO ABOUT 71W...WITH GENTLE NW WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE
FRONT. BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT
E OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR 5-7 FT SEAS IN NW SWELLS N OF 30N
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 71W. LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT ARE PRESENT SW
OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 28N65W TO
26N72W...AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO THE NW BAHAMAS
TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS MOVES ACROSS THE SE PORTION
FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE
BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BUT SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES
THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA EARLY ON SUN ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRES MOVING NEWD OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER FLOW WILL NOT BE ADEQUATE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THIS NEXT COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE MUCH TOWARDS THE FORECAST
WATERS AS IT MOST LIKELY WILL BECOME STATIOANRY JUST NW OF THE
BASIN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 180757
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DAYS 4 AND 5 WITH FRONTAL POSITION.

06Z PRELIMINARY SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM FORT MYERS SW TO 25N90W...THEN BECOMES A
WARM FRONT NW TO INLAND TEXAS JUST N OF GALVESTON...AND SW TO
WEAK LOW PRES OF 1014 MB OVER S TEXAS. HIGH PRES IS BRIDGING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER
PASSES FROM 0300 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOW GENTLE NE-E WIND FLOW N OF
THE FRONT E OF 90W. GENTLE E WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT E OF
90W...AND MOSTLY SE-S WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN GULF S OF THE
WARM FRONT. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE WITH
SEAS NOW HAVING BUILT TO 4-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF UNDER THE
MODERATE SE-S FLOW.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AND NE TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH FRI AS JET STREAM ENERGY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PERSIST OVER EASTERN TEXAS. WITH AMPLE SLY MOIST FLOW COMING IN
FROM THE WESTERN GULF AND WITH THE ENERGY ALOFT IN PLACE...THE
LOW PRES WILL BE REINFORCED OR REFORM AS TRACKS NE-E ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS FROM NE TEXAS TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD IN
AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THE LOW AND WITH THE FORECAST POSITIONS
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF BEGINNING FRI
EVENING. BY SAT AS THE LOW APPROACHES NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM IT SW TO NEAR
TAMPICO...FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA SW TO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY EARLY SAT NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES
FROM APALACHEE BAY TO NEAR 26N89W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN...AND TO A
POSITION SLIGHTLY E FROM THERE ON MON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL
BE MEDIUM LATE SUN INTO MON WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IDENTITY...WHETHER ALL OF IT BECOMES STATIONARY AT THAT POINT OR
JUST THE NE PART REMAINS COLD. BASED ON UPPER LEVEL MODEL FLOW
GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS BY LATE SUN AND INTO MON THE UPPER FLOW
WILL BE MAINLY SWLY. THAT ALONG WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT BEING
ABOUT THE SAME ON EITHER SIDE OF IT...THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY
BE STALLED ALONG THE SAME POSITION AS THE ONE FROM MON.

WITH RESPECT TO WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH A BRIEF ONSET OF NLY 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS BORDERING THE COASTAL OFFSHORE
WATERS FRI NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING
EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AND AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES IS
CONDUCIVE FOR INITIATING SUCH WINDS. THESE WINDS THEN QUICKLY
WEAKEN TO 10-15 KT EARLY SAT AFTERNOON AS THEY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
THE NE IN DIRECTION...AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 10 KT LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. BY LATE SUN NIGHT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
BECOME SE AT MODERATE SPEEDS AND MORE SLY BY EARLY MON. GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL THAT DEVIATES FROM SHOWING THESE WINDS DIRECTIONS
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON AS IT SHOWS N-NE WINDS INSTEAD. SEAS IN
THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4-6
FT RANGE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH SOME POCKETS OF 6-7 FT SEAS
OR BRIEF INSTANCE OF SEAS TO 8 FT MAINLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS. SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND
TO 2-3 FT SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE 06Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE...SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0258 UTC LAST NIGHT
AGAIN REVEALED A SWATH OF NE 20-25 KT SW OF CUBA TO 18N BETWEEN
78W-81W. THE EDGE OF THE SAME SWATH SUGGESTED SIMILAR WINDS TO
EXIST ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODEL
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATION INDICATES
THAT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOURS SW OF CUBA
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...BUT
IN A PULSING FASHION DURING THE NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING TO 8 FT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...BUOY AND ASCAT DATA ARE SHOWING
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR
GENTLE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 19N55W SW TO GUADELOUPE AND
W AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRON15N74W. SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3
FT IN THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 5-7 FT SEAS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA
VERIFIED WELL WITH THE MWW3 GUIDANCE VALUES. SEAS IN THE TROPICAL
N ATLC ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE IN A NE TO E SWELL COMPONENT PER
CURRENT BUOY DATA AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. THESE SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN THAT SIMILAR RANGE DURING THE PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

06Z PRELIMINARY SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED
E OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N54W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W-SW
TO 27N65W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 25N80W. TO THE
NORTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS...A RATHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT NOW
EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO WEST PALM BEACH. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0120
UTC LAST NIGHT INDICATED GENERALLY W-NW 15-20 KT N OF 30N W OF
THE FRONT TO ABOUT 71W...WITH GENLTE NW WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE
FRONT. BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT
E OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR 5-7 FT SEAS IN NW SWELLS N OF 30N
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 71W. LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT ARE PRESENT SW
OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 28N65W TO
26N72W...AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO THE NW BAHAMAS
TONIGHT...THEN CONTIUE TO WEAKEN AS MOVES ACROSS THE SE PORTION
FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE
BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BUT SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES
THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA EARLY SUN ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES
MOVING NEWD OFF THE SE U.S. COAST.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 180757
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DAYS 4 AND 5 WITH FRONTAL POSITION.

06Z PRELIMINARY SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM FORT MYERS SW TO 25N90W...THEN BECOMES A
WARM FRONT NW TO INLAND TEXAS JUST N OF GALVESTON...AND SW TO
WEAK LOW PRES OF 1014 MB OVER S TEXAS. HIGH PRES IS BRIDGING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER
PASSES FROM 0300 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOW GENTLE NE-E WIND FLOW N OF
THE FRONT E OF 90W. GENTLE E WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT E OF
90W...AND MOSTLY SE-S WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN GULF S OF THE
WARM FRONT. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE WITH
SEAS NOW HAVING BUILT TO 4-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF UNDER THE
MODERATE SE-S FLOW.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AND NE TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH FRI AS JET STREAM ENERGY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PERSIST OVER EASTERN TEXAS. WITH AMPLE SLY MOIST FLOW COMING IN
FROM THE WESTERN GULF AND WITH THE ENERGY ALOFT IN PLACE...THE
LOW PRES WILL BE REINFORCED OR REFORM AS TRACKS NE-E ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS FROM NE TEXAS TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD IN
AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THE LOW AND WITH THE FORECAST POSITIONS
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF BEGINNING FRI
EVENING. BY SAT AS THE LOW APPROACHES NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM IT SW TO NEAR
TAMPICO...FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA SW TO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY EARLY SAT NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES
FROM APALACHEE BAY TO NEAR 26N89W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN...AND TO A
POSITION SLIGHTLY E FROM THERE ON MON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL
BE MEDIUM LATE SUN INTO MON WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IDENTITY...WHETHER ALL OF IT BECOMES STATIONARY AT THAT POINT OR
JUST THE NE PART REMAINS COLD. BASED ON UPPER LEVEL MODEL FLOW
GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS BY LATE SUN AND INTO MON THE UPPER FLOW
WILL BE MAINLY SWLY. THAT ALONG WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT BEING
ABOUT THE SAME ON EITHER SIDE OF IT...THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY
BE STALLED ALONG THE SAME POSITION AS THE ONE FROM MON.

WITH RESPECT TO WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH A BRIEF ONSET OF NLY 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS BORDERING THE COASTAL OFFSHORE
WATERS FRI NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING
EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AND AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES IS
CONDUCIVE FOR INITIATING SUCH WINDS. THESE WINDS THEN QUICKLY
WEAKEN TO 10-15 KT EARLY SAT AFTERNOON AS THEY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
THE NE IN DIRECTION...AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 10 KT LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. BY LATE SUN NIGHT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
BECOME SE AT MODERATE SPEEDS AND MORE SLY BY EARLY MON. GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL THAT DEVIATES FROM SHOWING THESE WINDS DIRECTIONS
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON AS IT SHOWS N-NE WINDS INSTEAD. SEAS IN
THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4-6
FT RANGE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH SOME POCKETS OF 6-7 FT SEAS
OR BRIEF INSTANCE OF SEAS TO 8 FT MAINLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS. SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND
TO 2-3 FT SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE 06Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE...SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0258 UTC LAST NIGHT
AGAIN REVEALED A SWATH OF NE 20-25 KT SW OF CUBA TO 18N BETWEEN
78W-81W. THE EDGE OF THE SAME SWATH SUGGESTED SIMILAR WINDS TO
EXIST ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODEL
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATION INDICATES
THAT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOURS SW OF CUBA
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...BUT
IN A PULSING FASHION DURING THE NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING TO 8 FT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...BUOY AND ASCAT DATA ARE SHOWING
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR
GENTLE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 19N55W SW TO GUADELOUPE AND
W AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRON15N74W. SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3
FT IN THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 5-7 FT SEAS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA
VERIFIED WELL WITH THE MWW3 GUIDANCE VALUES. SEAS IN THE TROPICAL
N ATLC ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE IN A NE TO E SWELL COMPONENT PER
CURRENT BUOY DATA AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. THESE SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN THAT SIMILAR RANGE DURING THE PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

06Z PRELIMINARY SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED
E OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N54W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W-SW
TO 27N65W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 25N80W. TO THE
NORTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS...A RATHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT NOW
EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO WEST PALM BEACH. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0120
UTC LAST NIGHT INDICATED GENERALLY W-NW 15-20 KT N OF 30N W OF
THE FRONT TO ABOUT 71W...WITH GENLTE NW WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE
FRONT. BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT
E OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR 5-7 FT SEAS IN NW SWELLS N OF 30N
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 71W. LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT ARE PRESENT SW
OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 28N65W TO
26N72W...AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO THE NW BAHAMAS
TONIGHT...THEN CONTIUE TO WEAKEN AS MOVES ACROSS THE SE PORTION
FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE
BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BUT SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES
THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA EARLY SUN ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES
MOVING NEWD OFF THE SE U.S. COAST.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 180757
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
252 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DAYS 4 AND 5 WITH FRONTAL POSITION.

06Z PRELIMINARY SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM FORT MYERS SW TO 25N90W...THEN BECOMES A
WARM FRONT NW TO INLAND TEXAS JUST N OF GALVESTON...AND SW TO
WEAK LOW PRES OF 1014 MB OVER S TEXAS. HIGH PRES IS BRIDGING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FRONT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER
PASSES FROM 0300 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOW GENTLE NE-E WIND FLOW N OF
THE FRONT E OF 90W. GENTLE E WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT E OF
90W...AND MOSTLY SE-S WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN GULF S OF THE
WARM FRONT. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE WITH
SEAS NOW HAVING BUILT TO 4-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN GULF UNDER THE
MODERATE SE-S FLOW.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AND NE TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH FRI AS JET STREAM ENERGY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PERSIST OVER EASTERN TEXAS. WITH AMPLE SLY MOIST FLOW COMING IN
FROM THE WESTERN GULF AND WITH THE ENERGY ALOFT IN PLACE...THE
LOW PRES WILL BE REINFORCED OR REFORM AS TRACKS NE-E ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAINS FROM NE TEXAS TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD IN
AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF THE LOW AND WITH THE FORECAST POSITIONS
OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF BEGINNING FRI
EVENING. BY SAT AS THE LOW APPROACHES NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM IT SW TO NEAR
TAMPICO...FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA SW TO THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY EARLY SAT NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES
FROM APALACHEE BAY TO NEAR 26N89W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN...AND TO A
POSITION SLIGHTLY E FROM THERE ON MON. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WILL
BE MEDIUM LATE SUN INTO MON WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IDENTITY...WHETHER ALL OF IT BECOMES STATIONARY AT THAT POINT OR
JUST THE NE PART REMAINS COLD. BASED ON UPPER LEVEL MODEL FLOW
GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS BY LATE SUN AND INTO MON THE UPPER FLOW
WILL BE MAINLY SWLY. THAT ALONG WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT BEING
ABOUT THE SAME ON EITHER SIDE OF IT...THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY
BE STALLED ALONG THE SAME POSITION AS THE ONE FROM MON.

WITH RESPECT TO WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH A BRIEF ONSET OF NLY 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS BORDERING THE COASTAL OFFSHORE
WATERS FRI NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING
EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AND AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES IS
CONDUCIVE FOR INITIATING SUCH WINDS. THESE WINDS THEN QUICKLY
WEAKEN TO 10-15 KT EARLY SAT AFTERNOON AS THEY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO
THE NE IN DIRECTION...AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 10 KT LATE SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN. BY LATE SUN NIGHT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
BECOME SE AT MODERATE SPEEDS AND MORE SLY BY EARLY MON. GFS IS
THE ONLY MODEL THAT DEVIATES FROM SHOWING THESE WINDS DIRECTIONS
LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON AS IT SHOWS N-NE WINDS INSTEAD. SEAS IN
THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4-6
FT RANGE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH SOME POCKETS OF 6-7 FT SEAS
OR BRIEF INSTANCE OF SEAS TO 8 FT MAINLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS. SEAS SUBSIDE QUICKLY TO 3-5 FT SAT NIGHT AND
TO 2-3 FT SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE 06Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE...SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0258 UTC LAST NIGHT
AGAIN REVEALED A SWATH OF NE 20-25 KT SW OF CUBA TO 18N BETWEEN
78W-81W. THE EDGE OF THE SAME SWATH SUGGESTED SIMILAR WINDS TO
EXIST ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODEL
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATION INDICATES
THAT THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOURS SW OF CUBA
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...BUT
IN A PULSING FASHION DURING THE NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING TO 8 FT.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...BUOY AND ASCAT DATA ARE SHOWING
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR
GENTLE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 19N55W SW TO GUADELOUPE AND
W AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRON15N74W. SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3
FT IN THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 5-7 FT SEAS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. RECENT ALTIMETER DATA
VERIFIED WELL WITH THE MWW3 GUIDANCE VALUES. SEAS IN THE TROPICAL
N ATLC ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE IN A NE TO E SWELL COMPONENT PER
CURRENT BUOY DATA AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. THESE SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN THAT SIMILAR RANGE DURING THE PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF 00Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL AND NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

06Z PRELIMINARY SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED
E OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N54W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W-SW
TO 27N65W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 25N80W. TO THE
NORTH OF THIS RIDGE AXIS...A RATHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT NOW
EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO WEST PALM BEACH. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0120
UTC LAST NIGHT INDICATED GENERALLY W-NW 15-20 KT N OF 30N W OF
THE FRONT TO ABOUT 71W...WITH GENLTE NW WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE
FRONT. BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT
E OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR 5-7 FT SEAS IN NW SWELLS N OF 30N
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 71W. LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT ARE PRESENT SW
OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 28N65W TO
26N72W...AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO THE NW BAHAMAS
TONIGHT...THEN CONTIUE TO WEAKEN AS MOVES ACROSS THE SE PORTION
FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGH PRES WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE
BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE THROUGH SAT NIGHT...BUT SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES
THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA EARLY SUN ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES
MOVING NEWD OFF THE SE U.S. COAST.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 171806
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
106 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
TAMPA BAY SW TO 25N90W THEN BECOMING A WARM FRONT TO BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS. THIS FRONT BRIDGES BROAD HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF WATERS AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN
GULF WATERS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATES GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS N OF 26N WITH BROADER
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW S OF THE WEAKENING
BOUNDARY. SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE WITH A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN SEAS OF 2-4 FT ACROSS THE NW AND WEST-CENTRAL
ZONES IN AN AREA OF RE-ESTABLISHING RETURN FLOW.

WITH REGARDS TO RETURN FLOW BEGINNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN GULF...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI THAT THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS THU INTO FRI WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST...AND A NEWLY FORMED LOW MOVING NE INTO SAT
LOCATING ITSELF NEAR MOBILE BAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
DRAPE S-SW FROM THE LOW AND QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GULF FRI LATE AND NIGHT...THEN TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT NIGHT...AND
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM CEDAR KEY TO 24N88W SUN. BETTER
AGREEMENT IS NOTED IN THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH TIMING
AND FORECAST POSITIONS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THE MODELS
NOTED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY ON SAT. MOST MODELS
AGREE WITH NLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET GUIDANCE DEPICTING WINDS OF 20
KT. BLENDED WIND GRIDS RESULT IN A 15-20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THOSE TIME PERIODS AS IT APPEARS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
CURRENT HIGH PRES IN PLACE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS ALONG WITH THE
LOW PRES TAKING MORE OF A TRACK FARTHER S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS
THE RESULTANT PRES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THESE WINDS. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE LOW RACES NE FAR AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THE HIGH PRES
WEAKENS AS WELL. THE SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT WILL BE UNFAVORABLE AT
THAT TIME TO SUPPORT A SUSTAINABLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO WILL
FORECAST THE FRONT AS STATED EARLIER.

SEAS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK UP TO 5 FT...ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN GULF NEAR THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI AND SAT BEFORE
SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA. THE INDUCED PRES GRADIENT
HAS TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT SINCE YESTERDAY ALLOWING FOR NORTHERLY WINDS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. AN EARLIER ASCAT
PASS CONFIRMED THIS WIND FIELD WHICH STRETCHES TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE NW OF A SHEAR LINE FROM JAMAICA TO 15N81W.
THE SAME SWATH OF SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWED NE WINDS
FUNNELING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE SOUTHERN ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. THE PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
RELAX SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR THE WINDS
NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO DIMINISH...HOWEVER THE NE 20
KT WINDS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 82W AND THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THU MORNING.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...BUOY AND ASCAT DATA ARE SHOWING
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR GENTLE
E WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 19N55W SW TO GUADELOUPE AND W AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 17N76W. SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN
ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE
FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ARE IN THE 5-6
FT RANGE PER CURRENT BUOY DATA AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. THESE
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THAT SIMILAR RANGE DURING THE PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED E OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N59W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W-SW TO 27N65W
TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 25N80W. TO THE NORTH OF
THIS RIDGE AXIS...A SWIFT MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO
CAPE CANAVERAL. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT
WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY N OF 30N E OF THE FRONT WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH NW WINDS W OF THE FRONT. BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBS SHOW
SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR 5-7 FT
SEAS IN NW SWELLS N OF 29N E OF 79W IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE SEEN ELSEWHERE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION.
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY
DIMINISH THROUGH FRI AS THE FRONT SWEEPS SEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS. HIGH PRES WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE
WAKE OF THIS NEXT FRONT INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE
FAR NW CORNER EARLY SUN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 171806
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
106 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
TAMPA BAY SW TO 25N90W THEN BECOMING A WARM FRONT TO BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS. THIS FRONT BRIDGES BROAD HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF WATERS AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN
GULF WATERS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATES GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS N OF 26N WITH BROADER
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW S OF THE WEAKENING
BOUNDARY. SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE WITH A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN SEAS OF 2-4 FT ACROSS THE NW AND WEST-CENTRAL
ZONES IN AN AREA OF RE-ESTABLISHING RETURN FLOW.

WITH REGARDS TO RETURN FLOW BEGINNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN GULF...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRI THAT THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS THU INTO FRI WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST...AND A NEWLY FORMED LOW MOVING NE INTO SAT
LOCATING ITSELF NEAR MOBILE BAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
DRAPE S-SW FROM THE LOW AND QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GULF FRI LATE AND NIGHT...THEN TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT NIGHT...AND
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM CEDAR KEY TO 24N88W SUN. BETTER
AGREEMENT IS NOTED IN THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WITH TIMING
AND FORECAST POSITIONS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THE MODELS
NOTED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY ON SAT. MOST MODELS
AGREE WITH NLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET GUIDANCE DEPICTING WINDS OF 20
KT. BLENDED WIND GRIDS RESULT IN A 15-20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR THOSE TIME PERIODS AS IT APPEARS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE
CURRENT HIGH PRES IN PLACE. THE COMBINATION OF THIS ALONG WITH THE
LOW PRES TAKING MORE OF A TRACK FARTHER S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS
THE RESULTANT PRES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THESE WINDS. THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE LOW RACES NE FAR AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THE HIGH PRES
WEAKENS AS WELL. THE SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT WILL BE UNFAVORABLE AT
THAT TIME TO SUPPORT A SUSTAINABLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO WILL
FORECAST THE FRONT AS STATED EARLIER.

SEAS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK UP TO 5 FT...ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN GULF NEAR THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI AND SAT BEFORE
SUBSIDING ONCE AGAIN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA. THE INDUCED PRES GRADIENT
HAS TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT SINCE YESTERDAY ALLOWING FOR NORTHERLY WINDS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. AN EARLIER ASCAT
PASS CONFIRMED THIS WIND FIELD WHICH STRETCHES TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE NW OF A SHEAR LINE FROM JAMAICA TO 15N81W.
THE SAME SWATH OF SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWED NE WINDS
FUNNELING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE SOUTHERN ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. THE PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
RELAX SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR THE WINDS
NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO DIMINISH...HOWEVER THE NE 20
KT WINDS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 82W AND THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THU MORNING.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...BUOY AND ASCAT DATA ARE SHOWING
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS THROUGHOUT EXCEPT FOR GENTLE
E WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 19N55W SW TO GUADELOUPE AND W AS A
STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 17N76W. SEAS ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN
ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT IN THE
FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ARE IN THE 5-6
FT RANGE PER CURRENT BUOY DATA AND RECENT ALTIMETER DATA. THESE
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THAT SIMILAR RANGE DURING THE PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

12Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED E OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 30N59W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS W-SW TO 27N65W
TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 25N80W. TO THE NORTH OF
THIS RIDGE AXIS...A SWIFT MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO
CAPE CANAVERAL. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT
WINDS REMAINING GENERALLY N OF 30N E OF THE FRONT WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH NW WINDS W OF THE FRONT. BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBS SHOW
SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR 5-7 FT
SEAS IN NW SWELLS N OF 29N E OF 79W IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE SEEN ELSEWHERE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION.
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY
DIMINISH THROUGH FRI AS THE FRONT SWEEPS SEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS. HIGH PRES WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE
WAKE OF THIS NEXT FRONT INTO SAT NIGHT...BUT SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE
FAR NW CORNER EARLY SUN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities