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000
AGXX40 KNHC 301709
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
109 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A
SURFACE HIGH STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE FAR NE WATERS LATE EACH AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS A
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER INTERIOR FL DURING AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING. THE OBSERVATION NETWORK...INCLUDING GOES-R FOG
CHANNEL...REPORTING FOG-LOW STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF NW GULF
WATERS AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT AS DENSE AS YESTERDAY WITH MOSTLY 3-
5 NM REPORTS. WILL CARRY DENSE FOG IN WEATHER GRIDS FOR FIRST 24
HOURS. STRONG SE RETURN FLOW...WITH SEAS OF 5-8 FT...CURRENTLY
OVER THE SW GULF IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO FRESH WINDS WITH 4-7
FT SEAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF STRONG NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH MON EVENING...WITH
EMBEDDED BRIEF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS THIS EVENING. A WEAK FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF ON MON WITH
STRONG N WINDS SETTING UP W OF THE FRONT NEAR 22N97W ON MON
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING S TO NEAR 19N96W ON TUE EVENING...AS THE
FRONT THEN MOVES E AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY WED EVENING.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WEAK ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FRESH
TRADES ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
STRONG LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE PULSE TO STRONG THROUGH
SUN AFTERNOON. MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO FRESH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND
CONTINUE TILL LATE AT NIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED STRONG E
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN
BRIEFLY ON SUN NIGHT. A NARROW SWATH OF FRESH NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN E TO W RIDGE IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE NE PORTION WITH SEVERAL
N TO S ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL TROUGHS ANALYZED ACROSS THE WATERS S
OF 29N. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED ACROSS
THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF 68W. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR
31N70W TO NE FL WILL CONTINUE E PASSING BERMUDA TONIGHT WITH A
NE TO SW RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NW WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TO A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO
PORT CANAVERAL ON SUN NIGHT...THEN MEANDER THROUGH TUE NIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING SE ON WED AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH STALLS OFF THE
NE FL COAST. REINFORCING WILL PUSH THE TROUGH E AS A COLD FRONT
AGAIN ON WED NIGHT AND THU.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 301709
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
109 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A
SURFACE HIGH STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE FAR NE WATERS LATE EACH AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS A
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER INTERIOR FL DURING AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING. THE OBSERVATION NETWORK...INCLUDING GOES-R FOG
CHANNEL...REPORTING FOG-LOW STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF NW GULF
WATERS AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT AS DENSE AS YESTERDAY WITH MOSTLY 3-
5 NM REPORTS. WILL CARRY DENSE FOG IN WEATHER GRIDS FOR FIRST 24
HOURS. STRONG SE RETURN FLOW...WITH SEAS OF 5-8 FT...CURRENTLY
OVER THE SW GULF IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO FRESH WINDS WITH 4-7
FT SEAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF STRONG NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH MON EVENING...WITH
EMBEDDED BRIEF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS THIS EVENING. A WEAK FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF ON MON WITH
STRONG N WINDS SETTING UP W OF THE FRONT NEAR 22N97W ON MON
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING S TO NEAR 19N96W ON TUE EVENING...AS THE
FRONT THEN MOVES E AGAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY WED EVENING.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WEAK ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FRESH
TRADES ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
STRONG LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE PULSE TO STRONG THROUGH
SUN AFTERNOON. MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO FRESH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND
CONTINUE TILL LATE AT NIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED STRONG E
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN
BRIEFLY ON SUN NIGHT. A NARROW SWATH OF FRESH NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN E TO W RIDGE IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE NE PORTION WITH SEVERAL
N TO S ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL TROUGHS ANALYZED ACROSS THE WATERS S
OF 29N. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED ACROSS
THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF 68W. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR
31N70W TO NE FL WILL CONTINUE E PASSING BERMUDA TONIGHT WITH A
NE TO SW RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NW WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TO A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO
PORT CANAVERAL ON SUN NIGHT...THEN MEANDER THROUGH TUE NIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING SE ON WED AS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH STALLS OFF THE
NE FL COAST. REINFORCING WILL PUSH THE TROUGH E AS A COLD FRONT
AGAIN ON WED NIGHT AND THU.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 300756
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
356 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A
1015 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR THE COAST JUST S OF BIG BEND REGION.
DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING EXTENDING N TO S ACROSS MUCH OF MEXICO
COMBINING WITH RIDGE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SE FETCH OF 20 KT
WINDS FROM OFFSHORE N COAST OF YUCATAN INTO TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS...WITH AREAS 20-25 KT SUGGESTED BY MODELS. SEAS GENERALLY
6-8 FT THROUGHOUT THIS AREA WITH 42002 REPORTING 9 FT AT 00Z. SE
WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT ATTM ACROSS NE PORTIONS NEAR RIDGE
AXIS. PLATFORMS ACROSS NW WATERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING FOG AND LOW
CIGS WITH VSBYS 3-5 NM OF RECENT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS W
AND NW PORTIONS IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH TODAY AS A TROUGH MOVES
INTO SE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO TEXAS COASTAL WATERS MON AFTERNOON. YUCATAN AFTERNOON
THERMAL TROUGH TO DEVELOP EACH OF NEXT FEW DAYS WITH GFS
SUGGESTING SEABREEZE ALONG N COAST TO REACH 25-30 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUN. RIDGE TO REORGANIZE SOMEWHAT ACROSS
ATLC AHEAD OF FRONT TO PRODUCE SE WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS ALL BUT NE
PORTIONS OF BASIN THROUGH MON MORNING...WHILE INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDS N TO S ACROSS W PORTIONS AND OFFSHORE OF MEXICAN COAST.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH FRONT MOVING INTO NW WATERS
MON AFTERNOON...BUT GFS IS SLOWEST AND PRODUCES WEAKEST N TO NNE
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH ONLY 15-20 KT
THROUGH EARLY WED...WHILE ECMWF DRIVES STRONGER NLY FLOW BEHIND
FRONT AND MORE REMINISCENT OF WINTER FROPAS...AND 25-30 KT OFF OF
VERACRUZ. GLOBAL MODELS LEAN TOWARD STRONGER WIND FLOW AND FARTHER
SE PUSH WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH WED...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS ECMWF
AND HAVE BLENDED IN ECMWF MODESTLY BEYOND MON.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

ATLC RIDGE STILL BEING BLOCKED FROM BASIN BY SEVERAL ELONGATED
TROUGHS ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL ATLC...WITH WEAK AND BROAD
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB. THIS ALLOWING
FOR MODEST GRADIENT ACROSS THE SE CARIB WHERE WINDS SUGGESTED TO
20 KT OFFSHORE OF VENEZUELA EXTENDING N TO ABOUT 14N ATTM. DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ATLC TO NEAR HISPANIOLA PROVIDING
DYNAMICS FOR ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO-VI
AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
E TO ESE TRADES FORECAST TO PULSE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS GULF OF
HONDURAS NEXT FEW NIGHTS...WHILE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS MODESTLY SW
TOWARDS NE CARIB BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TO TIGHTEN PRES
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SE CARIB AND INCREASE WINDS TO 20-25 KT...WITH
SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT. PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX SLIGHTLY BY EARLY
MON AS ATLC RIDGING WEAKENS INTO REGION. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST
LLVL TROUGHING PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN TO
YIELD SE FLOW E HALF AND MODERATE ELY FLOW CENTRAL AND W PORTIONS
THROUGH WED.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

ATLC RIDGE SNAKES WEAKLY W-SW INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...
INTERRUPTED BY SEVERAL N TO S ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL TROUGHS W OF
55W. THE TROUGHS ARE LLVL REFLECTIONS OF MID TO UPPER LOWS AND ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DYNAMICS YIELDING
CONVECTION ENHANCED E OF THE TROUGHS. THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER
PRESENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA SPREADING E AND NE
ACROSS PUERTO RICO-VI AREA AND ACROSS EXTREME NE CARIB AND
ADJACENT ATLC AND EXPECTED TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD TODAY. THIS
ACTIVITY EXTENDS S TO ACROSS MONA PASSAGE. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL SINK SE INTO NW WATERS LATE TODAY AND THEN DRAG EWD ACROSS N
PORTIONS THROUGH MON. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT PATTERN OF
GENERALLY MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PRONOUNCED
NE AND SE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGHS. HIGH PRES TO BUILD
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY MON FROM THE W ATLC TO PRODUCE
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO E-SE TRADES ACROSS S HALF OF AREA FLOWING
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. HIGH TO SHIFT NE THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH RIDGE SHIFTING N TO ALONG 30N LATE MON INTO TUE. MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE HERE WITH THE APPROACH OF NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MENTIONED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. FRONT TO STALL ACROSS W ATLC
AND INT NW PORTIONS THROUGH THU WITH MODELS DEVELOPING DEEP
LAYERED LOW ALONG COAST OF CAROLINAS. 00Z ECMWF VERY AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT AND IS MUCH FASTER AND DEEPER WITH
CYCLOGENESIS THAN ENSEMBLE MEANS AND GFS...WHILE UKMET IS
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR. HAVE BEEN CAUTIOUS WITH BLENDING IN ECMWF BEYOND
MON DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 291736
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
136 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO
OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
THE NE WATERS LATE EACH AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS A THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER INTERIOR N FL DURING AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING. THE OBSERVATION NETWORK...INCLUDING GOES-R FOG
CHANNEL...REPORTING FOG-LOW STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF NW GULF
WATERS...WITH WIDESPREAD VSBY 3-5 NM WITH EMBEDDED 1-3 NM EARLY
THIS MORNING...THUS DENSE FOG WILL BE CARRIED IN WEATHER GRIDS
FOR FIRST 24 HOURS. FRESH SE RETURN FLOW...SEAS 5-8 FT...IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE W GULF WITH A SWATH OF STRONG WINDS AND SEAS
OF 6-9 FT...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE TX COASTAL BEND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT. THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY
RELAX SAT AFTERNOON SUPPORTING MOSTLY MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF ON MON. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS A W TO E
RIDGE SETS UP FROM NE TX TO CENTRAL FL.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WEAK ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO FRESH ON SAT AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO STRONG SE
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 15N BETWEEN 65-70W ON SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO FRESH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND
CONTINUE TILL LATE AT NIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED STRONG E
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...SAT NIGHT AND SUN
NIGHT. A NARROW SWATH OF FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS EVENING...AND ON SAT EVENING. FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS EXPECTED BRIEFLY NEAR 20N78W THIS EVENING.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO PORT CANAVERAL WITH
SEVERAL N TO S ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL TROUGHS ANALYZED ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF THE RIDGE. THE TROUGHS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY
OVERCAST LOW-MID CLOUDS WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED E OF THE
TROUGHS. THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDS S TO ACROSS MONA PASSAGE. A WEAK
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE E OFF THE SE CONUS TODAY N OF THE
RIDGE...AND PASS BERMUDA ON SAT EVENING BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE
BRIEFLY. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SAT...THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY S ON MON NIGHT AS ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH STALLS OFF THE NE FL COAST AND MEANDERS THERE
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 291736
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
136 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO
OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A
SURFACE HIGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
THE NE WATERS LATE EACH AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AS A THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER INTERIOR N FL DURING AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING. THE OBSERVATION NETWORK...INCLUDING GOES-R FOG
CHANNEL...REPORTING FOG-LOW STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF NW GULF
WATERS...WITH WIDESPREAD VSBY 3-5 NM WITH EMBEDDED 1-3 NM EARLY
THIS MORNING...THUS DENSE FOG WILL BE CARRIED IN WEATHER GRIDS
FOR FIRST 24 HOURS. FRESH SE RETURN FLOW...SEAS 5-8 FT...IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE W GULF WITH A SWATH OF STRONG WINDS AND SEAS
OF 6-9 FT...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE TX COASTAL BEND
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT. THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY
RELAX SAT AFTERNOON SUPPORTING MOSTLY MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF ON MON. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS A W TO E
RIDGE SETS UP FROM NE TX TO CENTRAL FL.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

WEAK ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO FRESH ON SAT AFTERNOON...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO STRONG SE
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 15N BETWEEN 65-70W ON SAT NIGHT AND
SUN. MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO FRESH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOONS AND
CONTINUE TILL LATE AT NIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED STRONG E
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...SAT NIGHT AND SUN
NIGHT. A NARROW SWATH OF FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE THIS EVENING...AND ON SAT EVENING. FRESH TO
STRONG NE WINDS EXPECTED BRIEFLY NEAR 20N78W THIS EVENING.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. LATEST NWPS BLENDED INTO OFFICIAL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO PORT CANAVERAL WITH
SEVERAL N TO S ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL TROUGHS ANALYZED ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF THE RIDGE. THE TROUGHS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY
OVERCAST LOW-MID CLOUDS WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED E OF THE
TROUGHS. THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDS S TO ACROSS MONA PASSAGE. A WEAK
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE E OFF THE SE CONUS TODAY N OF THE
RIDGE...AND PASS BERMUDA ON SAT EVENING BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE
BRIEFLY. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SAT...THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY S ON MON NIGHT AS ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH STALLS OFF THE NE FL COAST AND MEANDERS THERE
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 290752
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
352 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

ATLC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WEAKLY WSW ACROSS WRN ATLC AND ACROSS NE
GULF TO NEAR 90W THIS MORNING...WITH 1016 MB HIGH ALONG W COAST OF
FL N OF TAMPA BAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING NEARLY N
TO S ACROSS MEXICO AIDING IN MAINTAINING MODERATE SELY WINDS NW
QUARTER OF BASIN. SEAS ARE 4-5 FT OVER MUCH OF W HALF OF BASIN
ATTM...WITH 42002 RECENTLY REACHING 6 FT. RECENT OBS AND GOES-R
FOG-LOW STRATUS IMAGERY INDICATING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS PREVAILING
ACROSS MUCH OF NW GULF SHELF WATERS...WITH VSBYS 3-5 NM...WITH
LOWEST VSBYS SUGGESTED ACROSS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS W AND SW U.S.
AND INTO MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL NOT ALTER SURFACE
SCENARIO MUCH ACROSS THE GULF. RIDGE TO REMAIN INTACT TO DAY AND
WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SW U.S. WINDS FORECAST TO
FRESHEN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS WRN TWO-THIRDS OF GULF
BASIN...WITH SE WINDS 20-25 KT DEVELOPING NW PORTIONS...AND
THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS YUCATAN TO YIELD WINDS 20-30 KT OFF N END OF
PENINSULA. WAVE MODELS SEEM TO BE DOING REASONABLE JOB WITH WAVE
GROWTH ACROSS THESE AREA...POSSIBLY A FOOT LOW IN PEAK WIND
AREAS...WITH SEAS 8-9 FT EXPECTED NW PORTIONS AND BRIEFLY 6-8 FT
OFF NW YUCATAN. WW3 APPEARS TO BE HIGHER AND PREFERRED TO ECWAVE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SFC LOW TO TRACK NE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO CENTRAL MS VALLEY SUN AND WILL DRAG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO ERN TEXAS SAT WHERE IT WILL BRIEFLY
STALL...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY SE TO COASTAL PLAINS OF TX AND LA
THROUGH MON AS LOW MOVES NE INTO MID ATLC STATES. INVERTED TROUGH
PERSISTING W AND SW PORTIONS WILL MAINTAIN SELY RETURN FLOW INTO
SUN SPREADING INTO ERN PORTIONS...THEN BACK E TO SE BY MON AS
FRONT LAYS DOWN ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS OF N GULF STATES. FRONT MAY
FINALLY SINK INTO N COASTAL WATERS TUE MORNING BEFORE STALLING AND
BECOMING DIFFUSE. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MON.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

A WEAK ATLC RIDGE CENTERED ON A HIGH E OF BERMUDA...COUPLED WITH BROAD
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RATHER
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING. FRESH E TO SE
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH SEAS TO 6
FT...WHILE THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS S ALONG ABOUT 50W AND IS
PRODUCING FRESH ENE TRADES ACROSS S PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS...AND TO LESSER DEGREE ACROSS THE SE CARIB E OF 72W. BROAD
INVERTED TROUGHING INDUCED ACROSS THE SW N ATLC INVOF 70W WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUN BEFORE FLATTENING AND SHIFTING WWD SUN NIGHT
AND MON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE SE
CARIB...INCREASING TO SOLID 20-25 KT SUN AND SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT
THERE. MEANWHILE...SUFFICIENT GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WEN
PORTIONS FOR NOCTURNAL PULSING OF WINDS ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS
THROUGH MON.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

MID ATLC CUT OFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM HISPANIOLA AND PR NE
INTO CENTRAL ATLC...WITH A SERIES OF LLVL TROUGHS STRUNG OUT
ACROSS THIS AREA. ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ATLC WSW ACROSS
BERMUDA TO S CENTRAL FL...WITH TRADES TO THE S OF THE RIDGE
INTERRUPTED BY THESE INDUCED LLVL TROUGHS...AND YIELDING TRADES
GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. OBS SUGGESTS SEAS 4-5 FT S OF THE RIDGE
AND E OF BAHAMAS ATTM. RIDGE TO RETREAT TO THE NE OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE LLVL TROUGHS DRIFT WWD AND WEAKEN...AND WILL MAINTAIN MILD
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY SEEN. LOW AND WEAK FRONTAL ZONE TO SHIFT ENE
OFF HATTERAS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK HIGH BEHIND LOW
SUN BUILDING S ACROSS PORTIONS W OF 70W TO PRODUCE MODERATE ELY
TRADES S OF 27N SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE OFF MID ATLC COAST MON AND DRAG WEAK FRONT
INTO SE U.S. COASTAL WATERS. MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM TUE AND WED WITH GFS SHOWING BOUNDARY MAKING IT TO
GULF COASTS AND N FL WHILE ECMWF APPROACHES THIS AREA BUT LIFTS
QUICKLY BACK TO N IN INCREASING SLY FLOW WED. ENS MEANS LOOK MORE
SIMILAR TO ECMWF ATTM AND WILL TREND IN THAT DIRECTION BEYOND MON.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 281808
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
208 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS AND MWW3 WAVE GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ALONG 29N/30N
TO 90W WHILE LOWER PRESSURE AND A TROUGH IS INLAND ACROSS MEXICO.
IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA
BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
WHILE THE FRONT FLATTENS OUT ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN FRI AND SAT.
THE FRONT WILL REACH 30N...HOWEVER HAVE VERY LITTLE TO OFFER THE
GULF IN THE WAY OF A WIND SHIFT OR IMPACT ON SEAS. THE PRES
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THU NIGHT
INTO FRI INCREASING WINDS INTO FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS
WITH SEAS RESPONDING ACCORDINGLY INTO A RANGE OF 7 TO 9 FT W OF
89W. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS EACH EVENING ACROSS THE YUCATAN
THAT WILL PROPAGATE TO THE W-NW SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG E-SE
WINDS EACH NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS AND MWW3 WAVE GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUE TO PROVIDE RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING
FOR THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
AREA. ONE EXCEPTION REMAINS A LOCAL PULSING INCREASE IN PRES
GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH SUN
WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WITHIN
90 NM OF THE HONDURAS COAST...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
SIMILARLY...FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG E WINDS ARE EXPECTED THU
NIGHT THROUGH FRI IN THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ABC ISLANDS AND
THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. BY SUN...A LOCAL INCREASE IN THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL MATERIALIZE PRODUCING A SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG SE
WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF AND NORTH OF THE ABC ISLANDS BETWEEN 66W
AND 70W. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ON MON.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS AND MWW3 WAVE GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N58W TO 24N69W IS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE BECOMING
BROADER AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH FRI. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E
TO SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MODERATE S TO SW
WINDS ACROSS THE NW CORNER AS A FRONT IS ANALYZED TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE MID-ATLC COAST. A TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST FRI WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND MAY
EXTEND AS FAR S AS 28N WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF W-NW MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS IN NW WATERS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 280700
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS/ECMWF AND RESPECTIVE WAVE GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ALONG 30N
AND A TROUGH IS INLAND OVER MEXICO. THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING EACH EVENING OVER THE YUCATAN AND
PROPAGATING TO THE W TO NW WILL HELP SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SE
WINDS AT NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE W GULF WILL
STRENGTHEN FRESH SE WINDS THROUGH FRI.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS/ECMWF AND RESPECTIVE WAVE GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE FORECASTING
FOR THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE LONE
EXCEPTION APPEARS TO BE A LOCAL INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI WHICH
WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE HONDURAS COAST.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS/ECMWF AND RESPECTIVE WAVE GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO 25N65W IS
EVIDENT FROM SAT IMAGERY. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE BECOMING MORE NE/SW ORIENTED.
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
TROUGH THROUGH FRI. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE AREA...WITH MODERATE S TO SW WINDS OVER THE
NW CORNER. A TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE UNITED
STATES EAST COAST FRI WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND MAY EXTEND
AS FAR S AS 28N WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF W-NW MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS IN NW WATERS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 280700
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS/ECMWF AND RESPECTIVE WAVE GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ALONG 30N
AND A TROUGH IS INLAND OVER MEXICO. THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING EACH EVENING OVER THE YUCATAN AND
PROPAGATING TO THE W TO NW WILL HELP SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SE
WINDS AT NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE W GULF WILL
STRENGTHEN FRESH SE WINDS THROUGH FRI.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS/ECMWF AND RESPECTIVE WAVE GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK RIDGE N OF THE AREA AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE FORECASTING
FOR THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE LONE
EXCEPTION APPEARS TO BE A LOCAL INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI WHICH
WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE HONDURAS COAST.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDED WITH LATEST
GFS/ECMWF AND RESPECTIVE WAVE GUIDANCE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO 25N65W IS
EVIDENT FROM SAT IMAGERY. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE BECOMING MORE NE/SW ORIENTED.
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
TROUGH THROUGH FRI. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE AREA...WITH MODERATE S TO SW WINDS OVER THE
NW CORNER. A TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE UNITED
STATES EAST COAST FRI WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND MAY EXTEND
AS FAR S AS 28N WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF W-NW MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS IN NW WATERS FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





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