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000
AGXX40 KNHC 231808
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
208 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND
NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS
ARE IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL START TO
SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY THURSDAY. WITH THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTING
EASTWARD...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE ENTIRE
WATERS BY THU NIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND
NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILS NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEAK. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS IN THE 1 TO 3 FT
RANGE. THE BROAD TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY FRI BEFORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING N OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL SLIGHTLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FRESHEN WINDS
IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS BUILDING NEAR 8 FT BY LATE
FRI.

GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS
WITH SEAS IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE IN NE TO E SWELL. SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT TONIGHT. A SET OF NW TO N SWELL WILL
MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT WITH SEAS
IN THE NORTHERN WATERS REACHING NEAR 9 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND
NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAKENING TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL REGION WITH
SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. ELSEWHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL N OF 25N WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE
PREVAIL S OF 25N WITH SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE E OF THE
BAHAMAS...AND 1 TO 2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. A COLD FRONT TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN CENTRAL
AND NE WATERS TONIGHT AND THU BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE BASIN THU
NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS
MAINLY N OF 29N AND E OF 75W. NW SWELLS ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE
WILL BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 12 FT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS BY LATE THU
NIGHT. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...THEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SAT
AND SUN ENABLING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS N
OF 29N BY SUN NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 230755
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
355 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND
NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH CENTER OF 1016 MB AT
27N92W DOMINATES THE GULF. LATEST BUOY AND CMAN REPORTS ALONG
WITH A A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAILING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 1 TO 2 FT
RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE SW GULF WATERS WHERE
SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE PREVAIL AS WAS ALSO INDICATED IN AN
ALTIMETER PASS. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS JUST MOVED INTO THE FAR
NE WATERS ROUGHLY ALONG 30N. WITH LIMITED FAVORABLE UPPER
SUPPORT...THE FRONT WILL ONLY MOVE A LITTLE SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY THU BEFORE
SHIFTING EASTWARD. WITH THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTING EASTWARD...
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE ENTIRE WATERS BY THU
NIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND
NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILS NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING THE PRES GRADIENT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEAK AS INDICATED BY THE GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS REPORTED IN THE LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THE
0200 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT CONFIRMED THESE CONDITIONS AS
WELL. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE S OF 14N
BETWEEN 69W AND 76W. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE...
EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SECTIONS WHERE
LOWER SEA VALUES 1 TO 3 FT ARE BEING REPORTED. THE BROAD TROUGHING
N OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF 65W BY EARLY FRI AS WEAK
PRES REPLACES IT. THIS WILL SLIGHTLY TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT AND
FRESHEN WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO
8 FT BY LATE FRI AND INTO SUN.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE IN NE TO E SWELLS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THESE WATERS. THE SWELL ENERGY IS
DECAYING WITH TIME. THIS TREND WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO SUBSIDE
TO LESS THAN 8 FT DURING THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE BELOW 8 FT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SET OF NW TO N
SWELLS WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT
WITH SEAS PEAKING TO MOSTLY 8 FT WITH A FEW POCKETS OF 9 FT SEAS
AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND
NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT...
IS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRES IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN. LATEST SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 4 TO 6 FT
RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN SE
TO S SWELLS E OF ABOUT 70W. MUCH LOWER SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT ARE
PRESENT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH THU NIGHT. A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT FOR THIS LATE IN
APRIL WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN CENTRAL AND NE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING E OF THE BASIN THU NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY N OF 29N AND E OF 75W.
NW SWELLS ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE WILL BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 12 FT
OVER THE FAR NE WATERS BY LATE THU NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN
SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION FRI...AND MOVE E OF THE AREA SAT.
SEAS OVER THE FAR NE WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SAT
AS THE NW SWELLS SHIFT E OF THE AREA. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO WATERS N OF 29N BY SUN NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE IN RELATION TO WINDS...AND ON
THE LOW SIDE WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 221817
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
217 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND
NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 1 TO 2 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR THE SW GULF WATERS WHERE SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE
PREVAIL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SKIRT THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS
TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON WED. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY THU BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD.
WITH THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTING EASTWARD...SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE ENTIRE WATERS BY THU NIGHT. THE
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND
NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILS NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEAK. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS IN THE 1 TO 3 FT
RANGE. THE BROAD TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY FRI BEFORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING N OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL SLIGHTLY TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FRESHEN WINDS
IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS BUILDING NEAR 8 FT BY LATE
FRI INTO SAT.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE IN NE TO E SWELL. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE
BELOW 8 FT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND
NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR SE WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE
IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1 TO 3 FT W OF THE
BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY N OF 29N AND E OF
75W. NW SWELLS ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE WILL BUILD SEAS TO NEAR
12 FT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS BY LATE THU NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SEAS OVER THE FAR NE
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SAT AS THE NW SWELL
PROPAGATES E OF THE AREA.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 220733
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
332 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND
NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST AND PREVIOUS SURFACE ANALYSES HAVE HIGH PRES PREVAILING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A
FEW SHIP REPORTS SHOW MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. THE 0224 UTC ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED
THE GENTLE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF.
SEAS ARE IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SW WATERS WHERE SEAS CONTINUE AT COMBINED
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON WED. OTHERWISE...
HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. WITH THE HIGH PRES CENTER SHIFTING EASTWARD...SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE ENTIRE WATERS BY THU NIGHT...
AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND
NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILS N OF THE AREA. LATEST BUOY AND SHIP
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS IN THE 6 TO 9 FT RANGE. MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT
RANGE...THE HIGHEST OF THESE S OF 15N. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE. TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK MAINTAINING A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
AFTER A ALONG PERIOD OF SEAS AT 8 FT AND HIGHER OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. THESE SEAS WILL FINALLY LOWER TO LESS
THAN 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE TREND FOR RELATIVELY
LOW SEA HEIGHT VALUES TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE IN NE TO E SWELL. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...TO LESS THAN 8 FT...THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND
NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE 06 UTC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 27N65W
TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N69W
TO THE SE BAHAMAS. LATEST SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN OBSERVATIONS
DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WITH SEAS 6 TO 9 FT IN NE SWELL W
OF THE TROUGH. THE PERSISTENT AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SLY
WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT E OF THE FRONT HAS SHIFTED TO THE
FAR SE WATERS...AND HAS SHRUNK IN SIZE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THE FAR EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST WATERS. ELSEWHERE
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL WITH SEAS IN THE 5 TO 7 FT
RANGE E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1 TO 3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. HIGHER
SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT IN SE TO S SWELLS ARE NOTED N OF 27N E OF THE
THE BAHAMAS. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FT TONIGHT INTO
WED.

THE COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO SHIFT E OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRESH TO STRONG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT ALONG WITH
SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO SHIFT E OF THE AREA WITH THE
FRONT. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT CLIPPING THE NORTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY N OF 29N AND E
OF 75W. NW SWELLS ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE WILL BUILD SEAS TO
NEAR 11 FT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS BY LATE THU NIGHT. HIGHER
WINDS TO GALE FORCE ALONG WITH SEAS 12 FT AND GREATER WILL BY
PASS THE AREA JUST TO THE N OF 31N THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 211808
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
208 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND
NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OVER
THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SW WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE
REACHING NEAR 4 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR
NORTHERN WATERS TUE NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING EASTWARD...
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE ENTIRE WATERS BY THU
NIGHT...AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND
NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

BROAD TROUGHING PREVAILS N OF THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE. MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT
RANGE...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE. TROUGHING WILL
PREVAIL N OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK MAINTAINING A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEAS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...AND WILL FALL BELOW 8 FT BY
TUE AFTERNOON. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PREVAILING...ONCE SEAS
FALL BELOW 8 FT ON TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH SAT.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE IN NE TO E SWELL. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE
BELOW 8 FT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES BLENDED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE LATEST MWW3 AND
NWPS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N68W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NE SWELL W OF THE TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS PREVAIL N OF 25N WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SEAS
IN THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE. ELSEWHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL
WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS... AND 1 TO 3 FT W OF THE
BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT..AND
WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA TUE...BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS E OF THE AREA ALONG WITH IT. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN WATERS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY N OF 29N AND E OF 75W.
NW SWELL ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE WILL BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 11 FT
OVER THE FAR NE WATERS BY LATE THU NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 210955 CCA
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

CORRECTED CARIBBEAN SEA

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST MWW3 ALONG WITH NWPS PARAMETERS
WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN PER LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
WHERE A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR NE GULF.
LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM LATE
LAST NIGHT SHOW N-NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT E OF 89W...NE-E 10 KT
WINDS BETWEEN 89W-92W AND SE 10-15 KT WINDS W OF 92W. THE
EXCEPTION IS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE
SHIP "ELXY2" LOCATED NEAR 21N92W REPORTED NE 20 KT WINDS JUST A
FEW HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE 0244 UTC ASCAT PASS OVER
THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA CAPTURED THE OCCURRENCE OF SIMILAR
AND COMMON NOCTURNAL WINDS JUST ALONG THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
PENINSULA. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE
RANGE OF 2-4 FT. IN ADDITION...EARLIER ALTIMETER PASSES
REPORTED SIMILAR VALUES AS WELL AS A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE FAR N CENTRAL GULF LATE
TUE AFTERNOON OR EVENING BEFORE REACHING THE FAR NE GULF ON WED
AND DISSIPATE. THE FRONT WILL LACK ADEQUATE FORCING...AND IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES N OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO
RETREAT EASTWARD. THIS HAS LOOSENED THE PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST WATERS. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A
FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW NE TO E 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 72W-77W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO FRESH
TRADES ARE OBSERVED. OVER THE WESTERN PORTION...N-NE WINDS OF 10
KT ARE NOTED PER BUOY AND ISLAND REPORTS. THESE WINDS WERE ALSO
HIGHLIGHTED IN ASCAT PASSES FROM LAST NIGHT.

SEAS ARE IN THE THE 6-8 FT RANGE ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...AND ALSO S OF 15N IN THE EASTERN PORTION. SEAS ARE 5-
7 FT N OF 15N IN THE EASTERN PORTION...AND 2-4 FT IN THE WESTERN
PORTION. A COUPLE OF RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES NOTED THESE VALUES
ALONG WITH THOSE FROM THE BUOY REPORTS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WITH THE ATLC RIDGE RETREATING
EASTWARD...A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA BY LATE
TUE AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE END THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL
LOWER SOME OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0100 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED A DIMINISHED SWATH
OF NE 20 KT WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO THE S OF
ABOUT 14N E OF 60W. LATEST BUOY REPORTS SHOW SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT
RANGE IN NE SWELLS MAINLY S OF 15N. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE EVENING...WITH SEAS LOWERING TO
AROUND 6 OR 7 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THESE SEAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES OF 1009 MB JUST N OF THE
AREA AT 32N73W EXTENDS S THROUGH 31N71W TO 26N72W TO EASTERN
CUBA. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO CENTRAL
CUBA. A VERY ACTIVE SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR 31N68W TO 25N71W. NUMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING IS OBSERVED WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE SQUALL LINE.
SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED WITHIN 240 NM E
OF THE FRONT FROM 23N TO 25N.

LATEST BUOY...AND CMAN OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH SE
WINDS E OF THE FRONT AND SQUALL LINE. FRESH NW TO N WINDS ARE
NOTED N OF 27N W OF 77W WHERE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
AND HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXISTS. SEAS THERE ARE IN
THE 8-11 FT RANGE. A POCKET OF FRESH SE TO S WINDS REMAINS TO
THE E OF FRONT WITHIN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA OF CONVECTION E
OF THE SQUALL LINE WHERE SEAS ARE PEAKING TO AROUND 9 FT. NW TO
N WINDS W OF THE BAHAMAS ARE IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE.
SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE S OF 25N BETWEEN 65W AND
THE BAHAMAS...AND 4-6 FT N OF 25N E AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS
W OF THE BAHAMAS ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE.

THE 1009 MB LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE THROUGH WED WITH
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AND SQUALL MOVING E OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT. ON WED...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BE
DISSIPATING ACROSS THE FAR SE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NW PORTION BEGINNING TONIGHT AND INTO TUE. THE
AREA OF FRESH SE-S WINDS E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WILL SHIFT E OF
THE AREA EARLY ON TUE.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WED...AND BE
LOCATED JUST TO THE E OF THE AREA BY LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY
THU. GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NW
AT 20 KT. HIGHER NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL BE JUST N OF THE
AREA...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THESE WINDS FROM MOVING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A SET OF NW
SWELLS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 9 FT IN THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS...EXCEPT WITH SEAS TO 10 FT IN THE FAR NE PORTION ON THU
NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 8 FT DURING FRI.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 210800
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST MWW3 ALONG WITH NWPS PARAMETERS
WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN PER LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
WHERE A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR NE GULF.
LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH PARTIAL ASCAT DATA FROM LATE
LAST NIGHT SHOW N-NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT E OF 89W...NE-E 10 KT
WINDS BETWEEN 89W-92W AND SE 10-15 KT WINDS W OF 92W. THE
EXCEPTION IS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE
SHIP "ELXY2" LOCATED NEAR 21N92W REPORTED NE 20 KT WINDS JUST A
FEW HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE 0244 UTC ASCAT PASS OVER
THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA CAPTURED THE OCCURRENCE OF SIMILAR
AND COMMON NOCTURNAL WINDS JUST ALONG THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
PENINSULA. CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE
RANGE OF 2-4 FT. IN ADDITION...EARLIER ALTIMETER PASSES
REPORTED SIMILAR VALUES AS WELL AS A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE FAR N CENTRAL GULF LATE
TUE AFTERNOON OR EVENING BEFORE REACHING THE FAR NE GULF ON WED
AND DISSIPATE. THE FRONT WILL LACK ADEQUATE FORCING...AND IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON WINDS AND SEAS.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES N OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO
RETREAT EASTWARD. THIS HAS LOOSENED THE PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST WATERS. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A
FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW NE TO E 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH AN AREA OF NE 20-25 KT FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 72W-77W. SEAS THERE ARE IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO FRESH
TRADES ARE OBSERVED. OVER THE WESTERN PORTION...N-NE WINDS OF 10
KT ARE NOTED PER BUOY AND ISLAND REPORTS. THESE WINDS WERE ALSO
HIGHLIGHTED IN ASCAT PASSES FROM LAST NIGHT.

SEAS ARE IN THE THE 6-8 FT RANGE ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...AND ALSO S OF 15N IN THE EASTERN PORTION. SEAS ARE 5-
7 FT N OF 15N IN THE EASTERN PORTION...AND 2-4 FT IN THE WESTERN
A COUPLE OF RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES NOTED THESE VALUES ALONG WITH
THOSE FROM THE BUOY REPORTS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WITH THE ATLC RIDGE RETREATING
EASTWARD...A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA BY LATE
TUE AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE END THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL
LOWER SOME OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0100 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED A DIMINISHED SWATH
OF NE 20 KT WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO THE S OF
ABOUT 14N E OF 60W. LATEST BUOY REPORTS SHOW SEAS IN THE 6-9 FT
RANGE IN NE SWELLS MAINLY S OF 15N. THESE SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE EVENING...WITH SEAS LOWERING TO
AROUND 6 OR 7 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THESE SEAS
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR
WAVES USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST MWW3 AND NWPS WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES OF 1009 MB JUST N OF THE
AREA AT 32N73W EXTENDS S THROUGH 31N71W TO 26N72W TO EASTERN
CUBA. A POST-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO CENTRAL
CUBA. A VERY ACTIVE SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR 31N68W TO 25N71W. NUMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING IS OBSERVED WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE SQUALL LINE.
SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED WITHIN 240 NM E
OF THE FRONT FROM 23N TO 25N.

LATEST BUOY...AND CMAN OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH SE
WINDS E OF THE FRONT AND SQUALL LINE. FRESH NW TO N WINDS ARE
NOTED N OF 27N W OF 77W WHERE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW
AND HIGH PRES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. EXISTS. SEAS THERE ARE IN
THE 8-11 FT RANGE. A POCKET OF FRESH SE TO S WINDS REMAINS TO
THE E OF FRONT WITHIN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA OF CONVECTION E
OF THE SQUALL LINE WHERE SEAS ARE PEAKING TO AROUND 9 FT. NW TO
N WINDS W OF THE BAHAMAS ARE IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE RANGE.
SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE S OF 25N BETWEEN 65W AND
THE BAHAMAS...AND 4-6 FT N OF 25N E AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS. SEAS
W OF THE BAHAMAS ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE.

THE 1009 MB LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE THROUGH WED WITH
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AND SQUALL MOVING E OF THE AREA TUE
NIGHT. ON WED...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL BE
DISSIPATING ACROSS THE FAR SE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE OVER THE NW PORTION BEGINNING TONIGHT AND INTO TUE. THE
AREA OF FRESH SE-S WINDS E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WILL SHIFT E OF
THE AREA EARLY ON TUE.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WED...AND BE
LOCATED JUST TO THE E OF THE AREA BY LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY
THU. GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NW
AT 20 KT. HIGHER NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL BE JUST N OF THE
AREA...AND STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THESE WINDS FROM MOVING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A SET OF NW
SWELLS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 9 FT IN THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS...EXCEPT WITH SEAS TO 10 FT IN THE FAR NE PORTION ON THU
NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 8 FT DURING FRI.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





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