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000
AGXX40 KNHC 270752
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
352 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. NWPS/MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NW GULF REMAINS TIGHT THIS
MORNING BETWEEN THE LINGERING REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
PLOWED THROUGH THE NE HALF OF THE GULF OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS AND
HIGH PRES TO THE N. THE ASCAT PASSES FROM 0250 UTC AND 0338 UTC
SHOWED 25 KT WINDS IN THE NW HALF OF ZONE GMZ013. SHIP C6KJ5
REPORTED 11 FT SEAS AT 00Z IN THIS AREA. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE
STRONG ENOUGH INITIALLY. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA COMES EARLY SAT
MORNING OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA ENHANCES THE NORMAL NOCTURNAL TROUGH
THAT PUSHES OFF THE PENINSULA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GEFS
SHOWS A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA
BOTH EARLY SAT MORNING AND EARLY SUN MORNING...WITH PROBABILITIES
INCREASING SUN NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO AROUND 30
PERCENT. THE ECMWF IS FASTER CARRYING THE WAVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GULF AND DOES NOT DEVELOP A LOW PRES SYSTEM HERE THE WAY
THE 00Z GFS DOES JUST BEYOND THE 5 DAY PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THE DETAILS HERE THIS FAR OUT...SO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
WILL BE USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS. A BLEND OF THE MWW3 AND NWPS WAS
USED TO ADJUST THE WAVE...WITH MANUAL EDITS MADE TO MATCH THE
PREFERRED WINDS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-
LOW CONFIDENCE.

THE NORMALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE
DIMINISHED SINCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N HAS RETREATED E
DUE TO CRISTOBAL. THE RIDGE IS TRYING TO REBUILD S OF
CRISTOBAL...WITH THE 0248 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SHOWING 20-25 KT WINDS
IN THE GULF OF GUACANAYABO WHICH HAVE DIMINISHED SOME SINCE THE
0156 UTC ASCAT-A PASS. THESE WINDS SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH AS
CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO PULL N...CARRYING THE TROUGHING EXTENDING
TO ITS SE...CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...ALONG WITH IT. NONE OF
THE MODELS PICKED UP ON THIS AREA OF WINDS OVER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
OTHERWISE...THE LARGEST MODEL DIFFERENCES COME WITH THE FORECAST
OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT THROUGH
SAT. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SMALL CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IT
CARRIES THROUGH MARTINIQUE AND DOMINICA FRI. THE NAVGEM IS THE
CLOSEST MODEL TO THE GFS...WITH THE OTHERS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND
FOCUSING MORE ENERGY WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES TO THE E AND W.
CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS DIPS HERE. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL
BE USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY HERE AND IN
THE WIND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHICH IS DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS ALSO HELPS
TEMPER THE WIDESPREAD 20-25 KT WINDS THE GFS PUTS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN SAT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 54W MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT WINDS AS
STRONG. THE NWPS WAS MAINLY RELIED ON HERE TO ADJUST THE WAVES.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. MWW3/NWPS USED FOR WAVE OVER W HALF AND MWW3/ECMWF USED
FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

CRISTOBAL IS ACCELERATING...MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THE
TRACK...BUT THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS. NEITHER OF THOSE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE FRESH TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM
CRISTOBAL INTO CENTRAL CUBA AND THE RIDGE TRYING TO EXPAND S OF
CRISTOBAL. THE WINDS HERE HAVE DIMINISHED SOME BETWEEN THE 0156
UTC ASCAT-A AND THE 0248 UTC ASCAT-B PASS. THESE WINDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AS CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO PULL N...CARRYING THE
TROUGHING EXTENDING TO ITS SE...CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA...ALONG WITH IT. THE GFS SHOWS AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. IT IS THE STRONGEST OF THE MODELS...BUT NOT
STRONG ENOUGH COMPARED TO THE 25 KT OBSERVATIONS IN THE MORE
RECENT ASCAT PASS. MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE CONDITIONS. THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE IN THE REGION WILL BE
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 54W. THE
GFS IS SLOWER WITH THE WAVE THAN THE ECMWF AND SUPPORTS A LARGER
AREA OF FRESH TRADES. THE NAVGEM IS STRONGER AND FASTER HERE WHILE
THE UKMET AND ECMWF AREA WEAKER AND FASTER. THE GFS HAS BEEN
BACKING OFF ON THE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...BUT
AFRAID TO GO AWAY FROM IT TOTALLY AS ITS STRONGER WINDS OVER AREAS
OF LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT...LIKE IN THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...GENERALLY PAN OUT. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA HERE...IMPACTS ARE LOW. OVERALL...A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF HELPS MITIGATE SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS WILL BE
USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS WITH THE NWPS...MWW3 AND EC WAVE ALL
RELIED ON FOR WAVES. THE NWPS WAS FAVORED FOR ITS BATHYMETRY NEAR
THE BAHAMAS AND THE EC WAVE USED OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLC.


$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
  HURRICANE WARNING TODAY.
  TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
  TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 261751
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
151 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH
WAS HEAVY GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE.

REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH DISSECTS THE GULF FROM THE FL
STRAITS NW TO THE NE TX COAST. THE GRADIENT SUPPORTED NE-E 15-20
KT FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS NE OF THE TROUGH AT SUNRISE THIS
MORNING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. ONE MORE BLAST OF 15-20 KT EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE 10-15 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED NE OF THE
TROUGH THU AFTERNOON WHEN THE TROUGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY COMPLETELY.
MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SW OF THE TROUGH.
GENERALLY SE-S 10-15 KT FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ON
FRI INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE SW HALF ON SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS. THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF 15-20 KT NE WINDS ALONG THE W
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESUME TILL SUN
EVENING. THIS WILL SET UP AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE THE LATE SUN NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY MON MORNING...AND LOSE IDENTITY BY
MON AFTERNOON.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE:  LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH
WAS HEAVY GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE.
CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO INTERRUPT THE TRADE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE A WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED
EXTENDING SW FROM CRISTOBAL ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. THIS RESULTS IN
LIGHT 5-10 KT WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS AND SE-S FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS W OF 75W. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH SE 10-15 KT FLOW RETURNING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON WED NIGHT AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 15-20
KT AFTER FRI NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE TRADES WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON SUN EVENING.

TO THE E OF 75W E-SE WINDS ARE AT 15-20 KT WITH SMALL PATCHES OF
20-25 KT OFF THE S AMERICAN COAST AT THE VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA
BORDER. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE TROPICAL
ATLC WATERS TODAY AND THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH
WED NIGHT...THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU AND THROUGH THE
WESTERN PORTION ON FRI AND SAT. EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT NE-E-SE 15-
20 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE WAVE. A SECOND WAVE ALONG 48W THIS
MORNING WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON WED NIGHT
AND THU...THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE
ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 7-8 FT N OF 13N WITHIN 300 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE...AND THIS ENHANCEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BUT SHIFT A FURTHER N ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A LOW CLOSING OFF ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS AS IT ENTERS THE E CARIBBEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH
WAS MOSTLY GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE.

HRCN CRISTOBAL OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION IS THE MAIN FOCUS WITH
ALTIMETER DATA REPORTING SEAS HEIGHTS NEAR 25 FT LAST NIGHT. ALL
ASSOCIATED EFFECTS WILL LIFT N OF 31N AROUND SUNRISE ON THU. A
RIDGE WILL BUILD W ALONG 26N IN THE WAKE OF THE HURRICANE ON THU
WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING NEAR 28N74W ON THU NIGHT...AND
MAINTAINING A RIDGE NW TO BEYOND 31N75W AND A RIDGE SE TO NEAR
26N58W. THE HIGH WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA ON SAT WITH THE RIDGE
BECOMING ORIENTATED FROM 31N75W TO NE FL ON SUN. BY THEN THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS
S OF 23N WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING WED.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO WED.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     HURRICANE WARNING TODAY.
.AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 261751
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
151 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH
WAS HEAVY GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE.

REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH DISSECTS THE GULF FROM THE FL
STRAITS NW TO THE NE TX COAST. THE GRADIENT SUPPORTED NE-E 15-20
KT FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS NE OF THE TROUGH AT SUNRISE THIS
MORNING...BUT THE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AS HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. ONE MORE BLAST OF 15-20 KT EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE 10-15 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED NE OF THE
TROUGH THU AFTERNOON WHEN THE TROUGH WILL LOSE IDENTITY COMPLETELY.
MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SW OF THE TROUGH.
GENERALLY SE-S 10-15 KT FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ON
FRI INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE SW HALF ON SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS. THE EVENING ENHANCEMENT OF 15-20 KT NE WINDS ALONG THE W
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS NOT EXPECTED TO RESUME TILL SUN
EVENING. THIS WILL SET UP AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE THE LATE SUN NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY MON MORNING...AND LOSE IDENTITY BY
MON AFTERNOON.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE:  LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH
WAS HEAVY GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE.
CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO INTERRUPT THE TRADE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE A WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED
EXTENDING SW FROM CRISTOBAL ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. THIS RESULTS IN
LIGHT 5-10 KT WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS AND SE-S FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS W OF 75W. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH SE 10-15 KT FLOW RETURNING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON WED NIGHT AND GRADUALLY INCREASING TO 15-20
KT AFTER FRI NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE TRADES WILL
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON SUN EVENING.

TO THE E OF 75W E-SE WINDS ARE AT 15-20 KT WITH SMALL PATCHES OF
20-25 KT OFF THE S AMERICAN COAST AT THE VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA
BORDER. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE TROPICAL
ATLC WATERS TODAY AND THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH
WED NIGHT...THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU AND THROUGH THE
WESTERN PORTION ON FRI AND SAT. EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT NE-E-SE 15-
20 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE WAVE. A SECOND WAVE ALONG 48W THIS
MORNING WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON WED NIGHT
AND THU...THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE
ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 7-8 FT N OF 13N WITHIN 300 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE...AND THIS ENHANCEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BUT SHIFT A FURTHER N ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A LOW CLOSING OFF ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS AS IT ENTERS THE E CARIBBEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH
WAS MOSTLY GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE.

HRCN CRISTOBAL OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION IS THE MAIN FOCUS WITH
ALTIMETER DATA REPORTING SEAS HEIGHTS NEAR 25 FT LAST NIGHT. ALL
ASSOCIATED EFFECTS WILL LIFT N OF 31N AROUND SUNRISE ON THU. A
RIDGE WILL BUILD W ALONG 26N IN THE WAKE OF THE HURRICANE ON THU
WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING NEAR 28N74W ON THU NIGHT...AND
MAINTAINING A RIDGE NW TO BEYOND 31N75W AND A RIDGE SE TO NEAR
26N58W. THE HIGH WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA ON SAT WITH THE RIDGE
BECOMING ORIENTATED FROM 31N75W TO NE FL ON SUN. BY THEN THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS
S OF 23N WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING WED.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO WED.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     HURRICANE WARNING TODAY.
.AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 260820 CCA
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
420 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

CORRECTED FOR SEAS IN THE SW N ATLC SECTION

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN UNUSUALLY VIGOROUS COLD FRONT FOR LATE AUGUST MOVED THROUGH
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND HAS LOST ITS THERMAL AND DEW POINT GRADIENT.
THE ASCAT PASSES FROM 0218 UTC AND 0310 UTC SHOWED 25 KT WINDS
OVER MUCH OF THE NE HALF OF THE NE GULF ZONE GMZ015. BUOY 42O36
REACHED 25 KT AND SEAS TO 7 FT OVER THE PAST 4 HOURS. THE ECMWF IS
A WEAK OUTLIER HERE. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE NAVGEM
AND UKMET AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE OBSERVATIONS. GIVEN THAT
THE GEFS SHOW AS HIGH AS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS MEETING
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ZONE THIS
MORNING...WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS OVER THE ECMWF...BUT WILL NEED
TO BEEF THINGS UP INITIALLY AND INTO THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST BASED ON ITS WEAK INITIALIZATION AND GENERAL POOR
HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR THE MWW3 THE
REMAINING TROUGH WILL MEANDER FROM NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO
NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TODAY THROUGH THU MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA COMES EARLY SAT
MORNING OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A PASSING
TROPICAL WAVE ENHANCES THE NORMAL NOCTURNAL TROUGH THAT PUSHES OFF
THE PENINSULA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE MWW3 WHICH WAS FAVORED OVER THE LOWER
WAVE HEIGHTS OF THE NWPS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE NORMALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE
DIMINISHED SINCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N HAS RETREATED E
DUE TO CRISTOBAL. TRADES TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT WILL
BRIEFLY RETURN TONIGHT AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AND
CRISTOBAL LIFTS N OF THE BAHAMAS ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDS TO ITS S. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE THEN NOT EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE CARIBBEAN UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING OFF THE S COAST
OF HISPANIOLA. EVEN THEN...THE PERIOD OF TRADES TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT. THE GFS IS PREFERRED WITH THE
TRACK OF CRISTOBAL AND THE PATTERN TO THE N. THE GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WILL
ADJUST THE GRIDS TO THE GFS HERE. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...BUT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WED NIGHT WITH THE NAVGEM AND CMC WHILE THE
UKMET AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER AND FASTER. THE EC ENS MEAN SHOWS A NOD
TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED GFS CAMP. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS ON THU.
FAVORED A SLIGHTLY WEAKER/FASTER VERSION OF THE GFS AND MWW3 HERE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE RIGHT WITH THE TRACK OF
CRISTOBAL. THEY HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TOO WEAK WITH THE COLD FRONT
THAT PLOWED INTO THE SW N ATLC YESTERDAY. THE WIND FIELD AROUND
CRISTOBAL IS SIZABLE...WITH THE STRONGER GFS SLIGHTLY BETTER
INITIALIZED THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY S OF THE CENTER. THE GFS
IS MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE TRACK AND THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS. GIVEN THE TREND
FOR A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION AND THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING PICKING UP THE SYSTEM...WILL USE THE GFS AND MWW3 TO
ADJUST THE GRIDS OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. THE
06Z NWPS APPEARS TOO EXPANSIVE WITH THE 12 FT SEAS N OF
CRISTOBAL AND TOO SMALL WITH THE SEAS TO THE S COMPARED TO THE
RECENT ALTIKA AND CRYOSAT PASSES.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO WED.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY.
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY.
.AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 260734
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
334 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN UNUSUALLY VIGOROUS COLD FRONT FOR LATE AUGUST MOVED THROUGH
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND HAS LOST ITS THERMAL AND DEW POINT GRADIENT.
THE ASCAT PASSES FROM 0218 UTC AND 0310 UTC SHOWED 25 KT WINDS
OVER MUCH OF THE NE HALF OF THE NE GULF ZONE GMZ015. BUOY 42O36
REACHED 25 KT AND SEAS TO 7 FT OVER THE PAST 4 HOURS. THE ECMWF IS
A WEAK OUTLIER HERE. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE NAVGEM
AND UKMET AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE OBSERVATIONS. GIVEN THAT
THE GEFS SHOW AS HIGH AS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS MEETING
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ZONE THIS
MORNING...WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS OVER THE ECMWF...BUT WILL NEED
TO BEEF THINGS UP INITIALLY AND INTO THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST BASED ON ITS WEAK INITIALIZATION AND GENERAL POOR
HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR THE MWW3 THE
REMAINING TROUGH WILL MEANDER FROM NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO
NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TODAY THROUGH THU MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA COMES EARLY SAT
MORNING OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A PASSING
TROPICAL WAVE ENHANCES THE NORMAL NOCTURNAL TROUGH THAT PUSHES OFF
THE PENINSULA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE MWW3 WHICH WAS FAVORED OVER THE LOWER
WAVE HEIGHTS OF THE NWPS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE NORMALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE
DIMINISHED SINCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N HAS RETREATED E
DUE TO CRISTOBAL. TRADES TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT WILL
BRIEFLY RETURN TONIGHT AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AND
CRISTOBAL LIFTS N OF THE BAHAMAS ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDS TO ITS S. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE THEN NOT EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE CARIBBEAN UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING OFF THE S COAST
OF HISPANIOLA. EVEN THEN...THE PERIOD OF TRADES TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT. THE GFS IS PREFERRED WITH THE
TRACK OF CRISTOBAL AND THE PATTERN TO THE N. THE GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WILL
ADJUST THE GRIDS TO THE GFS HERE. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...BUT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WED NIGHT WITH THE NAVGEM AND CMC WHILE THE
UKMET AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER AND FASTER. THE EC ENS MEAN SHOWS A NOD
TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED GFS CAMP. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS ON THU.
FAVORED A SLIGHTLY WEAKER/FASTER VERSION OF THE GFS AND MWW3 HERE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
MWW3/NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE RIGHT WITH THE TRACK OF
CRISTOBAL. THEY HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TOO WEAK WITH THE COLD FRONT
THAT PLOWED INTO THE SW N ATLC YESTERDAY. THE WIND FIELD AROUND
CRISTOBAL IS SIZABLE...WITH THE STRONGER GFS SLIGHTLY BETTER
INITIALIZED THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY S OF THE CENTER. THE GFS
IS MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE TRACK AND THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS. GIVEN THE TREND
FOR A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION AND THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING PICKING UP THE SYSTEM...WILL USE THE GFS AND MWW3 TO
ADJUST THE GRIDS OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. THE
NWPS WILL BE RELIED ON HEAVILY FOR SEAS 12 FT AND GREATER.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO WED.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY.
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY.
.AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 260734
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
334 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
MWW3 BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN UNUSUALLY VIGOROUS COLD FRONT FOR LATE AUGUST MOVED THROUGH
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND HAS LOST ITS THERMAL AND DEW POINT GRADIENT.
THE ASCAT PASSES FROM 0218 UTC AND 0310 UTC SHOWED 25 KT WINDS
OVER MUCH OF THE NE HALF OF THE NE GULF ZONE GMZ015. BUOY 42O36
REACHED 25 KT AND SEAS TO 7 FT OVER THE PAST 4 HOURS. THE ECMWF IS
A WEAK OUTLIER HERE. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE NAVGEM
AND UKMET AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE OBSERVATIONS. GIVEN THAT
THE GEFS SHOW AS HIGH AS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS MEETING
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ZONE THIS
MORNING...WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS OVER THE ECMWF...BUT WILL NEED
TO BEEF THINGS UP INITIALLY AND INTO THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST BASED ON ITS WEAK INITIALIZATION AND GENERAL POOR
HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR THE MWW3 THE
REMAINING TROUGH WILL MEANDER FROM NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO
NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TODAY THROUGH THU MORNING. THE ONLY OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF EXCEEDING ADVISORY CRITERIA COMES EARLY SAT
MORNING OFF THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A PASSING
TROPICAL WAVE ENHANCES THE NORMAL NOCTURNAL TROUGH THAT PUSHES OFF
THE PENINSULA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST
THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE MWW3 WHICH WAS FAVORED OVER THE LOWER
WAVE HEIGHTS OF THE NWPS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE NORMALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE
DIMINISHED SINCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N HAS RETREATED E
DUE TO CRISTOBAL. TRADES TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT WILL
BRIEFLY RETURN TONIGHT AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AND
CRISTOBAL LIFTS N OF THE BAHAMAS ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDS TO ITS S. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE THEN NOT EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE CARIBBEAN UNTIL EARLY FRI MORNING OFF THE S COAST
OF HISPANIOLA. EVEN THEN...THE PERIOD OF TRADES TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT. THE GFS IS PREFERRED WITH THE
TRACK OF CRISTOBAL AND THE PATTERN TO THE N. THE GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WILL
ADJUST THE GRIDS TO THE GFS HERE. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER...BUT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WED NIGHT WITH THE NAVGEM AND CMC WHILE THE
UKMET AND ECMWF ARE WEAKER AND FASTER. THE EC ENS MEAN SHOWS A NOD
TOWARD THE MORE AMPLIFIED GFS CAMP. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS ON THU.
FAVORED A SLIGHTLY WEAKER/FASTER VERSION OF THE GFS AND MWW3 HERE.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
MWW3/NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TO THE RIGHT WITH THE TRACK OF
CRISTOBAL. THEY HAVE GENERALLY BEEN TOO WEAK WITH THE COLD FRONT
THAT PLOWED INTO THE SW N ATLC YESTERDAY. THE WIND FIELD AROUND
CRISTOBAL IS SIZABLE...WITH THE STRONGER GFS SLIGHTLY BETTER
INITIALIZED THAN THE ECMWF...ESPECIALLY S OF THE CENTER. THE GFS
IS MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE TRACK AND THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS. GIVEN THE TREND
FOR A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION AND THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING PICKING UP THE SYSTEM...WILL USE THE GFS AND MWW3 TO
ADJUST THE GRIDS OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. THE
NWPS WILL BE RELIED ON HEAVILY FOR SEAS 12 FT AND GREATER.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO WED.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     HURRICANE WARNING EARLY TODAY.
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY.
.AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 251755
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
155 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL DISSIPATE BY
TONIGHT. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO SE LOUISIANA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS OVER
THE NE GULF SURGED TO NEAR 25 KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SECOND SURGE OF NE WINDS OVER THE
FAR NE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...REACHING MINIMAL
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 25 KT BRIEFLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z BEFORE
WINDS ONCE AGAIN DIMINISH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE BUT LINGERING TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE WASHING OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FIRST PART OF FORECAST PERIOD LATEST GFS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...LATER IN PERIOD BLEND GFS/UKMET
WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW.

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO DISRUPT THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT TYPICALLY EXTENDS OVER THE SW N ATLC N OF THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THIS IS KEEPING A DISRUPTION TO TRADEWINDS FLOW OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AS PREVAILING FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS AROUND A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE INDUCED WIND
FIELD AROUND CRISTOBAL. AS CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
AND FURTHER FROM THE AREA...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SW
N ATLC WATERS BRINGING A RETURN OF FRESH TRADEWIND FLOW BY
MIDWEEK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO THE FORMATION OF A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF 40W. THE GFS
AND UKMET ARE DEVELOPING A RATHER DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING A LOW. HAVE
BLENDED THE GFS/UKMET INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
PERIOD AS THE MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION CALL BETWEEN NHC AND WPC
FAVORS THESE SOLUTIONS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF/GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD. A
WELL PLACED ASCAT PASS INDICATES TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE...BRINGING THE SYSTEM N OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
CRISTOBAL AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 251755
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
155 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL DISSIPATE BY
TONIGHT. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO SE LOUISIANA. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS OVER
THE NE GULF SURGED TO NEAR 25 KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BUT LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SECOND SURGE OF NE WINDS OVER THE
FAR NE WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...REACHING MINIMAL
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 25 KT BRIEFLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z BEFORE
WINDS ONCE AGAIN DIMINISH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE BUT LINGERING TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE WASHING OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FIRST PART OF FORECAST PERIOD LATEST GFS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...LATER IN PERIOD BLEND GFS/UKMET
WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW.

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO DISRUPT THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT TYPICALLY EXTENDS OVER THE SW N ATLC N OF THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THIS IS KEEPING A DISRUPTION TO TRADEWINDS FLOW OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AS PREVAILING FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS AROUND A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE INDUCED WIND
FIELD AROUND CRISTOBAL. AS CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
AND FURTHER FROM THE AREA...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SW
N ATLC WATERS BRINGING A RETURN OF FRESH TRADEWIND FLOW BY
MIDWEEK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO THE FORMATION OF A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF 40W. THE GFS
AND UKMET ARE DEVELOPING A RATHER DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOT DEVELOPING A LOW. HAVE
BLENDED THE GFS/UKMET INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
PERIOD AS THE MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION CALL BETWEEN NHC AND WPC
FAVORS THESE SOLUTIONS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF/GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD. A
WELL PLACED ASCAT PASS INDICATES TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE...BRINGING THE SYSTEM N OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
CRISTOBAL AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 250722
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
322 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN UNUSUALLY VIGOROUS COLD FRONT FOR LATE AUGUST HAS MOVED INTO
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WINDS AT SGOF1...AN ELEVATED
PLATFORM...REACHING 24 KT AT 06Z. THE GEFS SHOWS A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF WINDS AT THE ADVISORY LEVEL OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THIS
MORNING IN THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST BY
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT THEY RETURN TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL AROUND 06Z TUE AS
A SECONDARY SURGE OF E-NE WINDS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GEFS
SHOWS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS AT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
COASTAL WATERS AND A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE OFFSHORES. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE HERE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT SEEMS
TO BE PANNING OUT BEST COMPARED TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS REPORTED
BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT. THE FRONT WILL DEGENERATE TO A
TROUGH BY THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL MEANDER FROM NEAR THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TUE THROUGH THU
MORNING. THE GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE MWW3
WHICH WAS FAVORED OVER THE LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS OF THE NWPS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE NORMALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE
DIMINISHED SINCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N HAS RETREATED E
DUE TO CRISTOBAL. TRADES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA UNTIL TUE NIGHT AS CRISTOBAL LIFTS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS S. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THE STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL WATERS IN
THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD FRI NIGHT. WHILE THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH THE TRACK
OF T.D. CRISTOBAL AND THE PATTERN TO THE N...THE GFS GENERALLY
DOES A BETTER JOB WITH THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS. THE GFS IS
STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
WILL ADJUST THE GRIDS TO THE GFS HERE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WED NIGHT...THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY EARLY FRI.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
EC WAVE/NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TO THE EAST WITH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST FOR CRISTOBAL. THE GFS BECOMES SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AFTER FORECAST HOUR 24. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE ECMWF ON THE
SLOW END OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ACCORDING TO THE ASCAT
PASSES FROM AROUND 02Z...CRISTOBAL HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE PAST
6-12 HOURS. THIS LENDS CREDENCE TO THE ECMWF FORECAST. WILL USE
THE 00Z ECMWF TO ADJUST THE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE EXPECTED AREA
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.


$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 250722
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
322 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS BLEND USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN UNUSUALLY VIGOROUS COLD FRONT FOR LATE AUGUST HAS MOVED INTO
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WINDS AT SGOF1...AN ELEVATED
PLATFORM...REACHING 24 KT AT 06Z. THE GEFS SHOWS A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF WINDS AT THE ADVISORY LEVEL OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THIS
MORNING IN THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST BY
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT THEY RETURN TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL AROUND 06Z TUE AS
A SECONDARY SURGE OF E-NE WINDS MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE GEFS
SHOWS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS AT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
COASTAL WATERS AND A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE OFFSHORES. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE HERE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT SEEMS
TO BE PANNING OUT BEST COMPARED TO THE CURRENT CONDITIONS REPORTED
BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT. THE FRONT WILL DEGENERATE TO A
TROUGH BY THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGH WILL MEANDER FROM NEAR THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TUE THROUGH THU
MORNING. THE GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS ALONG WITH THE MWW3
WHICH WAS FAVORED OVER THE LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS OF THE NWPS.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE NORMALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE
DIMINISHED SINCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N HAS RETREATED E
DUE TO CRISTOBAL. TRADES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA UNTIL TUE NIGHT AS CRISTOBAL LIFTS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS S. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THE STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL WATERS IN
THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING HOURS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD FRI NIGHT. WHILE THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH THE TRACK
OF T.D. CRISTOBAL AND THE PATTERN TO THE N...THE GFS GENERALLY
DOES A BETTER JOB WITH THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS. THE GFS IS
STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
WILL ADJUST THE GRIDS TO THE GFS HERE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WED NIGHT...THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY EARLY FRI.


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
EC WAVE/NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED TO THE EAST WITH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST FOR CRISTOBAL. THE GFS BECOMES SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AFTER FORECAST HOUR 24. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE ECMWF ON THE
SLOW END OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ACCORDING TO THE ASCAT
PASSES FROM AROUND 02Z...CRISTOBAL HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE PAST
6-12 HOURS. THIS LENDS CREDENCE TO THE ECMWF FORECAST. WILL USE
THE 00Z ECMWF TO ADJUST THE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE EXPECTED AREA
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.


$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 241806
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
206 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE PREVAIL. A TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WILL SHIFT INTO THE SE WATERS
MIDWEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL EXTENDS ACROSS E
CUBA INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. CRISTOBAL HAS DISRUPTED
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT CLIMATOLOGICALLY PREVAILS N OF THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...TRADES HAVE BEEN DISRUPTED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. THE CURRENT TRACK OF CRISTOBAL BRINGS THE SYSTEM NNW
THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN SHIFTING TO A NNE TRACK MOVING N OF THE SW
N ATLC WATERS LATE WED. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
SW N ATLC WATERS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
BRING A RETURN OF FRESH TRADEWIND FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BY MIDWEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE TRADES BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA. AS
THE TRADE WINDS FRESHEN MIDWEEK...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AS THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL...THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH WINDS INCREASING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MIDWEEK. THIS IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS MIDWEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
TRACK OF CRISTOBAL WITH SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE
CANADIAN AND UKMET ARE THE FASTEST WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FAVORING A SLOWER SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND ECMWF AND GFS
WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS OUTSIDE OF
CRISTOBAL.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING MON NIGHT.
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO MON NIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 241806
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
206 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE PREVAIL. A TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WILL SHIFT INTO THE SE WATERS
MIDWEEK AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL EXTENDS ACROSS E
CUBA INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. CRISTOBAL HAS DISRUPTED
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT CLIMATOLOGICALLY PREVAILS N OF THE
AREA. AS A RESULT...TRADES HAVE BEEN DISRUPTED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. THE CURRENT TRACK OF CRISTOBAL BRINGS THE SYSTEM NNW
THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN SHIFTING TO A NNE TRACK MOVING N OF THE SW
N ATLC WATERS LATE WED. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHWARD THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
SW N ATLC WATERS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
BRING A RETURN OF FRESH TRADEWIND FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BY MIDWEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE THE TRADES BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA. AS
THE TRADE WINDS FRESHEN MIDWEEK...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AS THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK OF CRISTOBAL...THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH WINDS INCREASING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MIDWEEK. THIS IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS MIDWEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
TRACK OF CRISTOBAL WITH SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE
CANADIAN AND UKMET ARE THE FASTEST WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FAVORING A SLOWER SOLUTION. WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND ECMWF AND GFS
WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS OUTSIDE OF
CRISTOBAL.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING MON NIGHT.
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO MON NIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




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