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000
AGXX40 KNHC 220631
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
231 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AT 22/0300 UTC RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
LOCATED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 19.4N 92.9W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT. T.D. NINE IS FORECAST TO
INTENSITY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH EARLY TODAY AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD...AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
EVENING. ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW.

ASIDE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SW TEXAS COAST. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS OUTSIDE THE
WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE. SEAS ARE IN
THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE NW GULF AND 1-3 FT OVER THE NE GULF.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK...AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL BY SAT. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH SAT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF T.D. NINE OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHICH WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON THE WINDS AND
SEAS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGH FRI THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS
ASSOCIATED TO THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT
RANGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 4-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DIMINISHES THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND
BRINGS THE SYSTEM INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY
AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK AS A 30 KT SYSTEM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE INTERACTION OF A FEW OTHER PLAYERS MAKE THIS A
DIFFICULT FORECAST. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN GULF THIS
WEEKEND AS WELL AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THESE
FEATURES AND POTENTIAL CONVERGENCE OF ENERGY WILL INTERACT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHWEST WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT WITH LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ARE
IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2
FT W OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA
TO SOUTH FLORIDA THU AFTERNOON...THEN STALL ROUGHLY ALONG 27N BY
LATE FRI. A LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL
HELP PUSH THE STALLED BOUNDARY SE ON SAT AND EXTEND FROM THE NE
WATERS TO CENTRAL CUBA BY SUN NIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE
FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 211801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
201 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE SW GULF.
LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED DATA INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF...
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...EXCEPT NEAR THE LOW WHERE FRESH TO
STRONG NW-N WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE S OF 21N W OF 94W.

ONE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO EXTENDING
INTO THE FAR NW GULF...WITH A STRONGER AND DEEPER REINFORCING
TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE N GULF COASTAL PLAINS. TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED UP ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF
AHEAD OF THESE UPPER FEATURES.

THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE NE GULF AND
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS WED AS A
COLD FRONT THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WATERS AND SE OF THE AREA BY SAT.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE SW GULF THAT IS STILL FORECAST TO TRACK E-NE.
THERE REMAINS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TWOAT FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME AND
WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
AFTERWARDS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THIS
FEATURE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR THIS LOW TO SHIFT ENE INTO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN INTO THE FAR
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGH FRI THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED DATA REPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE
E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH E-SE WINDS W OF 70W. SEAS ARE 2-4 FT E OF 70W AND 3-6 FT
W OF 70W. MEANWHILE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE IS APPROACHING 50W WITH IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS
ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL
N ATLC WATERS THROUGH WED...THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THU...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL INTERACT WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS.

THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA AS DISCUSSED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...
AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST CYCLE FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE FROM THE GULF
WATERS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS WEEKEND. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THERE WILL BE A CONVERGENCE OF ENERGY INTO
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM SEVERAL DIFFERENT SOURCES...INCLUDING
BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...ENERGY FROM THE LOW...AND ENERGY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE NW PORTION INDICATED BY METAR REPORTS OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NW OF THE FRONT AND MID 70S SE OF
THE FRONT ALONG WITH DEWPOINT DIFFERENCES OF 10-15 DEGREES. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL.
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
E-SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE
BAHAMAS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE NW PORTION THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...THEN WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD AGAIN REACHING 31N73W TO
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WED EVENING...FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU EVENING WITH THE SW HALF OF THE FRONT STALLING
OUT...THEN THE ENTIRE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR
27N65W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA BY FRI MORNING. LOW PRES
MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOW TRACKING TO THE
NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW LEADING TO A LOWERING IN THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
DAY 4-5.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 210551
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
151 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE SW GULF. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS
EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS
ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND 1-3 FT OVER THE
EASTERN GULF.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY AND IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS WED THEN
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS AND SE OF
THE AREA BY SAT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SW GULF THAT IS FORECAST TO TRACK
E-NE. THERE IS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TWO FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME THUS
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO THIS FEATURE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR THIS LOW TO SHIFT ENE
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN INTO THE
FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE WEEKEND.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGH FRI THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS
WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN....AND 2-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY WED. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL
INTERACT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF WATERS. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA AS DISCUSSED
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION. THIS WILL CREATE A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE CURRENT FORECAST CYCLE
FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE FROM THE GULF WATERS ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY THIS WEEKEND. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO PLAYS
OUT...THERE WILL BE A CONVERGENCE OF ENERGY INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM SEVERAL DIFFERENT SOURCES...BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...ENERGY FROM THE
LOW...AND ENERGY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE
OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS WITH 1-3 FT SEAS W OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS IT GETS LIFTED
NORTH OF THE AREA. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
WATERS BY WED. THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SOUTH
FLORIDA THU THEN STALL BRIEFLY FRI. A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TO EXTEND FROM NEAR
31N65W TO W CUBA BY SAT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 210551
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
151 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE SW GULF. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS
EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS
ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND 1-3 FT OVER THE
EASTERN GULF.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY AND IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS WED THEN
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS AND SE OF
THE AREA BY SAT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SW GULF THAT IS FORECAST TO TRACK
E-NE. THERE IS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TWO FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME THUS
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO THIS FEATURE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR THIS LOW TO SHIFT ENE
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN INTO THE
FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE WEEKEND.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGH FRI THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS
WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN....AND 2-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY WED. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL
INTERACT WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF WATERS. THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA AS DISCUSSED
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION. THIS WILL CREATE A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE CURRENT FORECAST CYCLE
FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE FROM THE GULF WATERS ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN
EARLY THIS WEEKEND. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO PLAYS
OUT...THERE WILL BE A CONVERGENCE OF ENERGY INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM SEVERAL DIFFERENT SOURCES...BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...ENERGY FROM THE
LOW...AND ENERGY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE
OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS WITH 1-3 FT SEAS W OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS IT GETS LIFTED
NORTH OF THE AREA. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW
WATERS BY WED. THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SOUTH
FLORIDA THU THEN STALL BRIEFLY FRI. A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TO EXTEND FROM NEAR
31N65W TO W CUBA BY SAT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 201831
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
231 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

A 1007 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS NEAR 20N96W.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF 20 KT WINDS ON THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. BUOY 42055 IN THE SW
GULF HAS REPORTED E-NE WINDS HOVERING AROUND THE 15-20 KT FOR THE
PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE ACROSS THE SW
GULF AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS TUE AND IS
FORECAST TO STALL FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS WED WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS FORMED THIS MORNING IN THE SW GULF AND
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK E-NE THROUGH SAT AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC
THEREAFTER. ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS SCENARIO AND
THE OVERALL TRACKING OF THE LOW HAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND RESULTING WINDS. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES AND LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
UKMET AND THE ECMWF. A HIGHER WEIGHTED BLEND TOWARD THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS USED WITH A LOWER WEIGHT OF THE 12Z GFS RUN...GIVING
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IN THE SW
GULF AND A MORE BAROCLINIC LOOK TO THE EAST IN THE SW NORTH ATLC
BY SAT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 3-5 FT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...
AND 4-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT INTO TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AFTER WED WITH
REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WOULD MOST LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION...HOWEVER A NORTHERLY TRACK WOULD GIVE THE LOW AMPLE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENERGY TO WORK WITH AS IT TRACKS E-NE. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ON TUE...
THEN MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY MIDWEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N63W W-SW TO 28N74W AND CONTINUES
TO LOSE DEFINITION FARTHER WEST ALONG 28N TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT AND
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE
NORTH OF THE FRONT AND 4-5 FT SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND OUTSIDE THE
BAHAMAS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE W OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT N OF 30N WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT S OF 30N CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOME
DIFFUSE THROUGH EARLY TUE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NW WATERS EARLY WED AND WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N68W SW TO THE NW
BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA BY THU...STALLING FROM NEAR
27N70W TO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY FRI.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 201831
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
231 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

A 1007 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS NEAR 20N96W.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF 20 KT WINDS ON THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. BUOY 42055 IN THE SW
GULF HAS REPORTED E-NE WINDS HOVERING AROUND THE 15-20 KT FOR THE
PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE ACROSS THE SW
GULF AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS TUE AND IS
FORECAST TO STALL FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS WED WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS FORMED THIS MORNING IN THE SW GULF AND
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK E-NE THROUGH SAT AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC
THEREAFTER. ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS SCENARIO AND
THE OVERALL TRACKING OF THE LOW HAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAN THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND RESULTING WINDS. THIS IS WHERE THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES AND LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
UKMET AND THE ECMWF. A HIGHER WEIGHTED BLEND TOWARD THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WAS USED WITH A LOWER WEIGHT OF THE 12Z GFS RUN...GIVING
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IN THE SW
GULF AND A MORE BAROCLINIC LOOK TO THE EAST IN THE SW NORTH ATLC
BY SAT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 3-5 FT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...
AND 4-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT INTO TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AFTER WED WITH
REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WOULD MOST LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKER LOW DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION...HOWEVER A NORTHERLY TRACK WOULD GIVE THE LOW AMPLE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENERGY TO WORK WITH AS IT TRACKS E-NE. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ON TUE...
THEN MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY MIDWEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N63W W-SW TO 28N74W AND CONTINUES
TO LOSE DEFINITION FARTHER WEST ALONG 28N TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT AND
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE
NORTH OF THE FRONT AND 4-5 FT SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND OUTSIDE THE
BAHAMAS. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE W OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT N OF 30N WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT S OF 30N CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOME
DIFFUSE THROUGH EARLY TUE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NW WATERS EARLY WED AND WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N68W SW TO THE NW
BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA BY THU...STALLING FROM NEAR
27N70W TO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY FRI.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 200545
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH TUE...THEN GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

A TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE SW GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE SW GULF AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS TUE. THE FRONT
WILL STALL FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS EARLY WED WHERE IT WILL
DISSIPATE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM EARLY THIS WEEK. THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO TRACK ENE. ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
THIS SCENARIO AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST HAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND RESULTING WINDS. THIS IS WHERE
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES AND LEADS TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW TO THE ENE...BUT USE A BLEND OF THE GFS SOLUTION
WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WINDS FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND 5-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOW
PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE SW GULF. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AFTER
TUESDAY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER
THE GULF WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS ON TUE...THEN MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY
MIDWEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND
CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT AND
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT NW OF THE
FRONT AND 4-5 FT E OF THE FRONT AND OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS. SEAS ARE
IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE W OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT N OF 30N WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH MON WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. A SECOND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY WED. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL REACH FROM NEAR THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THU THEN
STALL FROM NEAR 27N65W TO SOUTH FLORIDA FRI.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 200545
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
145 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THROUGH TUE...THEN GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

A TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE SW GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE SW GULF AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS TUE. THE FRONT
WILL STALL FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS EARLY WED WHERE IT WILL
DISSIPATE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM EARLY THIS WEEK. THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO TRACK ENE. ALL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
THIS SCENARIO AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST HAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND RESULTING WINDS. THIS IS WHERE
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES AND LEADS TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW TO THE ENE...BUT USE A BLEND OF THE GFS SOLUTION
WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WINDS FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND 5-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS WEEK WITH LOW
PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE SW GULF. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AFTER
TUESDAY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER
THE GULF WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS ON TUE...THEN MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY
MIDWEEK.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND
CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT AND
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT NW OF THE
FRONT AND 4-5 FT E OF THE FRONT AND OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS. SEAS ARE
IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE W OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT N OF 30N WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH MON WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE. A SECOND
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY WED. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL REACH FROM NEAR THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THU THEN
STALL FROM NEAR 27N65W TO SOUTH FLORIDA FRI.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 191815
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH
TUE...THEN GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z MWW3
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
W-SW TO 27N90W THEN W TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR MATAGORDA BAY.
LATEST SCATTEROMETER WINDS AND ALTIMETER SEA HEIGHTS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE GULF WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE 3-6 FT RANGE
ACROSS THE SW GULF...2-4 FT TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND 1-3 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH MON. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS
TUE AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST WED. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE FAR SW GULF WATERS BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE LOW
TRACKING ENE TOWARD THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY EARLY FRI PER GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE UKMET SLIGHTLY FASTER CARRYING THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA BY THU. THE OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL TRACK OF THE LOW APPEARS TO AGREE HOWEVER
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
AND THE ASSOCIATED WINDS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE MOST
ROBUST AND MOST AGGRESSIVE...WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW A
BROADER AND WEAKER LOW...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY WEAKER WIND
FIELD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO HEAVILY WEIGHT THE GFS
THROUGH TUE...WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
ECMWF THEREAFTER INTO THE MID RANGE. FOR THE LONGER RANGE...AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE...GFS INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC AND
BECOMING MORE BAROCLINIC LOOKING...AND THE ECMWF NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND MORE BAROTROPIC LOOKING...KEEPING
PREVIOUS THINKING WITH LOW TRACKING INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS
BY WAY OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS FRI INTO SAT...THEN NE OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST USED FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE. ONE EXCEPTION...AND LIKELY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED IS A SMALL
AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF 13N79W. HIGHER WINDS WERE NOTED ON AN
EARLY MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 19/1430 UTC NEAR THE CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE TROPICAL
N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE...LIKELY DUE TO MIXED
NE AND SE SWELL.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC TONIGHT INTO MON THAT WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NEXT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS AND DRIFT E-NE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION
THU LATE INTO FRI. BY TUE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW WHICH WILL
SHIFT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TUE INTO WED AS THE LOW PASSES NE
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WITH
RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A FRONTAL COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N74W SW TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RECENT ASCAT
PASS FROM AROUND 19/1424 UTC INDICATING 15-20 KT SW WINDS N OF 30N
WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT...AND 15-20 KT...PUSHING 25 KT ALONG
31N...NW TO N WINDS NORTH OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. TO
THE SE OF THE BOUNDARY...SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA INDICATE
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS IN
SUBSIDING SWELL FROM GONZALO OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-3 FT W
OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS THROUGH MON EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE EAST COAST OF THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MON MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD AND INTO THE SW
NORTH ATLC WATERS CENTERING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS WED...MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS...AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS THU.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 191815
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH
TUE...THEN GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. 12Z MWW3
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH TUE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
W-SW TO 27N90W THEN W TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR MATAGORDA BAY.
LATEST SCATTEROMETER WINDS AND ALTIMETER SEA HEIGHTS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE GULF WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE 3-6 FT RANGE
ACROSS THE SW GULF...2-4 FT TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND 1-3 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH MON. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS
TUE AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST WED. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE FAR SW GULF WATERS BY MIDWEEK...WITH THE LOW
TRACKING ENE TOWARD THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY EARLY FRI PER GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...WITH THE UKMET SLIGHTLY FASTER CARRYING THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA BY THU. THE OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT AND GENERAL TRACK OF THE LOW APPEARS TO AGREE HOWEVER
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
AND THE ASSOCIATED WINDS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE MOST
ROBUST AND MOST AGGRESSIVE...WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW A
BROADER AND WEAKER LOW...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY WEAKER WIND
FIELD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO HEAVILY WEIGHT THE GFS
THROUGH TUE...WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
ECMWF THEREAFTER INTO THE MID RANGE. FOR THE LONGER RANGE...AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DIVERGE...GFS INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC AND
BECOMING MORE BAROCLINIC LOOKING...AND THE ECMWF NORTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND MORE BAROTROPIC LOOKING...KEEPING
PREVIOUS THINKING WITH LOW TRACKING INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS
BY WAY OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS FRI INTO SAT...THEN NE OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BY SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST USED FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE. ONE EXCEPTION...AND LIKELY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED IS A SMALL
AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF 13N79W. HIGHER WINDS WERE NOTED ON AN
EARLY MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 19/1430 UTC NEAR THE CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE TROPICAL
N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE...LIKELY DUE TO MIXED
NE AND SE SWELL.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC TONIGHT INTO MON THAT WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ACROSS THE BASIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NEXT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS AND DRIFT E-NE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION
THU LATE INTO FRI. BY TUE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW WHICH WILL
SHIFT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TUE INTO WED AS THE LOW PASSES NE
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WITH
RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A FRONTAL COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N74W SW TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RECENT ASCAT
PASS FROM AROUND 19/1424 UTC INDICATING 15-20 KT SW WINDS N OF 30N
WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT...AND 15-20 KT...PUSHING 25 KT ALONG
31N...NW TO N WINDS NORTH OF 30N WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. TO
THE SE OF THE BOUNDARY...SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA INDICATE
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS IN
SUBSIDING SWELL FROM GONZALO OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 1-3 FT W
OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS THROUGH MON EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE EAST COAST OF THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MON MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD AND INTO THE SW
NORTH ATLC WATERS CENTERING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS WED...MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS...AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS THU.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




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