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000
AGXX40 KNHC 220700
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TRANQUIL PERIOD CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD THROUGH SAT NIGHT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 27N.
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING THE
20-25 KT THRESHOLD NEAR THE YUCATAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE THERMALLY
DRIVEN TROUGHING MIGRATING W FROM THE YUCATAN EACH NIGHT BUILDS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL DIFFERENCES HERE ARE RELATIVELY
MINOR. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE
FORECAST.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE 03Z OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CARRIES A
30 KT DEPRESSION INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN BY THU EVENING. NONE OF THE
MODELS ARE THIS STRONG. THE 00Z ECMWF OPENS THE SYSTEM INTO A WAVE
LATER TODAY AND THE 00Z GFS DOES SO BEFORE IT REACHES THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS A STRONGER SOLUTION AND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS
WITH HEAVY EDITING DONE TO BOTH THE WINDS AND WAVES TO MATCH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE DAY-TO-DAY
FORECAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE NE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING GALE
FORCE WINDS EARLY WED. THE GFS HAS BEEN HINTING AT GALES EARLY
WED FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT THIS LATEST RUN IS MORE BULLISH.
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG...BUT HAS INCREASED ITS AREA OF 30 KT
WINDS. THE STRONGER GFS USUALLY PANS OUT BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
HERE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH BREEZE IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH
FRI...INCREASING TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION. THE
STRONGER GFS GENERALLY DOES BEST WITH THE LOCAL DIURNAL DRIVEN
WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN...BOTH HERE AND OVER S CENTRAL WATERS. GFS
AND NWPS/MWW3 WERE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE ONLY CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD OVER
THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THU WILL COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG
THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE 0154 UTC AND 0240 UTC ASCAT PASSES
SHOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN PLACE ALONG THE N COAST OF HAITI.
THE ECMWF IS THE BEST INITIALIZED MODEL...SHOWING STRONGER MAX
WINDS AND A BROADER SWATH OF FRESH WINDS IN THE ATLC EASTERN
APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SW.
BEYOND THIS MORNING...THE GFS CARRIES A STRONGER SOLUTION IN THE
EVENINGS N OF HISPANIOLA THAN THE ECMWF. THIS STRONGER SOLUTION
HAS BEEN PANNING OUT BETTER UNDER A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL ADD
TO THE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THU. THE GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS
HAS BEEN TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...MINIMIZING THE INFLUENCE
ON THE FORECAST IN THE SW N ATLC. THE GFS TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST THAN THE MORE SOUTHERLY MODEL CONSENSUS.
OVERALL...THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE. IT SHOWS THE REMAINS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAVING LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST.
IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 220700
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TRANQUIL PERIOD CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD THROUGH SAT NIGHT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PERSISTENT RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 27N.
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING THE
20-25 KT THRESHOLD NEAR THE YUCATAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE THERMALLY
DRIVEN TROUGHING MIGRATING W FROM THE YUCATAN EACH NIGHT BUILDS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL DIFFERENCES HERE ARE RELATIVELY
MINOR. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE
FORECAST.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN
55W AND 65W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE 03Z OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CARRIES A
30 KT DEPRESSION INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN BY THU EVENING. NONE OF THE
MODELS ARE THIS STRONG. THE 00Z ECMWF OPENS THE SYSTEM INTO A WAVE
LATER TODAY AND THE 00Z GFS DOES SO BEFORE IT REACHES THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS A STRONGER SOLUTION AND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS
WITH HEAVY EDITING DONE TO BOTH THE WINDS AND WAVES TO MATCH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE DAY-TO-DAY
FORECAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE NE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING GALE
FORCE WINDS EARLY WED. THE GFS HAS BEEN HINTING AT GALES EARLY
WED FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS...BUT THIS LATEST RUN IS MORE BULLISH.
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS STRONG...BUT HAS INCREASED ITS AREA OF 30 KT
WINDS. THE STRONGER GFS USUALLY PANS OUT BETTER THAN THE ECMWF
HERE.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH BREEZE IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH
FRI...INCREASING TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE THIS EVENING AHEAD
OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION. THE
STRONGER GFS GENERALLY DOES BEST WITH THE LOCAL DIURNAL DRIVEN
WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN...BOTH HERE AND OVER S CENTRAL WATERS. GFS
AND NWPS/MWW3 WERE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE ONLY CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD OVER
THE SW N ATLC THROUGH THU WILL COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG
THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE 0154 UTC AND 0240 UTC ASCAT PASSES
SHOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN PLACE ALONG THE N COAST OF HAITI.
THE ECMWF IS THE BEST INITIALIZED MODEL...SHOWING STRONGER MAX
WINDS AND A BROADER SWATH OF FRESH WINDS IN THE ATLC EASTERN
APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SW.
BEYOND THIS MORNING...THE GFS CARRIES A STRONGER SOLUTION IN THE
EVENINGS N OF HISPANIOLA THAN THE ECMWF. THIS STRONGER SOLUTION
HAS BEEN PANNING OUT BETTER UNDER A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THE INFLUENCE OF THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL ADD
TO THE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THU. THE GENERAL TREND IN THE MODELS
HAS BEEN TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...MINIMIZING THE INFLUENCE
ON THE FORECAST IN THE SW N ATLC. THE GFS TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST THAN THE MORE SOUTHERLY MODEL CONSENSUS.
OVERALL...THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE. IT SHOWS THE REMAINS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAVING LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST.
IT WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 211837
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
237 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH STATES
THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NE
GULF. THIS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD. OTHERWISE A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
BASIN WITH SLIGHT SEAS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BY LATE WED. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH SATURDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODELS ARE NOTED.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN THE CARIBBEAN...MWW3 BLENDED WITH
OFFICIAL IN ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CARIBBEAN MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN ATLC.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC CONTINUES TO BE WEAK LOW
PRES EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 40W AND
45W. THIS LOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. AN ASCAT
SATELLITE PASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING UNFORTUNATELY MOSTLY
MISSED THE CENTER...BUT STILL INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW. MODELS ARE NOT REALLY
INITIALIZINGTHIS WELL...BUT SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW/WAVE MOVES THROUGH 50W...FOLLOWED BY A
WEAKENING TREND THAT RENDERS AN OPEN WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BEYOND 72 HOURS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT RANGE
HOWEVER AS CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE LOW PRES. TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 48 HOURS BEFORE THE WEAKENING
TREND COMMENCES. GIVEN THE TRENDS IN THE ASCAT SATELLITE
PASSES...THE MARINE FORECAST STARTS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG
WINDS ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE LOW AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. FOR
NOW...THIS WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE LEEWARDS THROUGH
72 HOURS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH. THIS OF COURSE WILL BE
UPGRADED IF THE LOW DEEPENS ANY.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS PULSING OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OFF
COLOMBIA. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST FAVORS STRONGER GFS TO CAPTURE 30 KT WINDS OFF COLOMBIA. SEAS
WILL BE REACHING 13 FT OFF COLOMBIA ACCORDINGLY. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE BASIN THROUGH MID WEEK. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER
HAITI...DELIVERING DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...BUT ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE N OF 26N THROUGH THE WEEK
ALLOWING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES
OFF THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA...MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 211837
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
237 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH STATES
THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NE
GULF. THIS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD. OTHERWISE A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
BASIN WITH SLIGHT SEAS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF THROUGH MID WEEK...ALLOWING
MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BY LATE WED. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH SATURDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODELS ARE NOTED.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN THE CARIBBEAN...MWW3 BLENDED WITH
OFFICIAL IN ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CARIBBEAN MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN ATLC.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC CONTINUES TO BE WEAK LOW
PRES EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE BETWEEN 40W AND
45W. THIS LOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. AN ASCAT
SATELLITE PASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING UNFORTUNATELY MOSTLY
MISSED THE CENTER...BUT STILL INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW. MODELS ARE NOT REALLY
INITIALIZINGTHIS WELL...BUT SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW/WAVE MOVES THROUGH 50W...FOLLOWED BY A
WEAKENING TREND THAT RENDERS AN OPEN WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BEYOND 72 HOURS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT RANGE
HOWEVER AS CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE LOW PRES. TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 48 HOURS BEFORE THE WEAKENING
TREND COMMENCES. GIVEN THE TRENDS IN THE ASCAT SATELLITE
PASSES...THE MARINE FORECAST STARTS ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG
WINDS ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE LOW AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. FOR
NOW...THIS WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE LEEWARDS THROUGH
72 HOURS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH. THIS OF COURSE WILL BE
UPGRADED IF THE LOW DEEPENS ANY.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS PULSING OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN
ISSUE WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OFF
COLOMBIA. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST FAVORS STRONGER GFS TO CAPTURE 30 KT WINDS OFF COLOMBIA. SEAS
WILL BE REACHING 13 FT OFF COLOMBIA ACCORDINGLY. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE BASIN THROUGH MID WEEK. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER
HAITI...DELIVERING DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...BUT ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE N OF 26N THROUGH THE WEEK
ALLOWING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES
OFF THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA...MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 210638
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
238 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TRANQUIL PERIOD CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING
THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD NEAR THE YUCATAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE THERMALLY
DRIVEN TROUGHING MIGRATING W FROM THE YUCATAN EACH NIGHT BUILDS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL DIFFERENCES HERE ARE RELATIVELY
MINOR. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE
FORECAST.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN THE CARIBBEAN...MWW3 BLENDED WITH
OFFICIAL IN ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CARIBBEAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN ATLC.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE FORECAST FOR
LOW PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC.
GFS RUNS BEFORE 20/00Z HAS DEVELOPED A TROPICAL STORM AND MOVED IT
NW TOWARD THE NE CORNER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS WED.
THIS WAS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS
IDEA...BUT THE LATEST 00Z RUN DEVELOPS ELONGATED LOW PRES AT THE
INTERSECTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH...ALBEIT
FROM DIFFERENT ORIGINS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND BUILDS WINDS TO 25
KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS WED.
THE 0030 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR
THE LOW PRES SYSTEM. THE 00Z GFS IS WEAK COMPARED TO THE ASCAT AS
IS THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW PRES SYSTEM
HERE INITIALLY. THE ECMWF CAPS WINDS AT 20 KT AND NEVER ALLOWS
SEAS TO BUILD OVER 7 FT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS
COMING IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE UKMET IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS BY PROPAGATING A STRONGER SYSTEM INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE GFS SOLUTION
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND THE CHANGE IN THE UKMET
FORECAST TO SUPPORT A STRONGER SYSTEM. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
PRIMARILY IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER WINDS
SEEN IN THE ASCAT PASS COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT THE GFS WAS
OTHERWISE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE DAY-TO-DAY
FORECAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE NE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
BARB OF GALE FORCE WINDS LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. THE GFS FROM
20/00Z SHOWED THE SAME CONDITIONS. NOT INCLINED TO PULL THE
TRIGGER ON A GALE WARNING JUST YET SINCE IT IS SO BRIEF AND SMALL
IN SCALE IN THE GFS FORECAST.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH BREEZE IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH
FRI...INCREASING TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE EVENINGS
AFTER A TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE ON TUE NIGHT AND THU NIGHT. THE GFS
IS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION. THE STRONGER GFS GENERALLY DOES BEST
WITH THE LOCAL DIURNAL DRIVEN WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN...BOTH HERE
AND OVER S CENTRAL WATERS. GFS AND NWPS/MWW3 WERE USED TO ADJUST
THE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE ONLY CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD OVER
THE SW N ATLC WILL COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE N COAST OF
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION HERE AND INITIALIZED
BEST LAST NIGHT WHEN ASCAT HIT THE AREA AT THE TIME OF PEAK WINDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE GFS FORECAST TO ADJUST THE GRIDS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 210638
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
238 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TRANQUIL PERIOD CONTINUES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING
THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD NEAR THE YUCATAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE THERMALLY
DRIVEN TROUGHING MIGRATING W FROM THE YUCATAN EACH NIGHT BUILDS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODEL DIFFERENCES HERE ARE RELATIVELY
MINOR. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE
FORECAST.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN THE CARIBBEAN...MWW3 BLENDED WITH
OFFICIAL IN ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CARIBBEAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN ATLC.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS RESOLVING THE FORECAST FOR
LOW PRES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC.
GFS RUNS BEFORE 20/00Z HAS DEVELOPED A TROPICAL STORM AND MOVED IT
NW TOWARD THE NE CORNER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS WED.
THIS WAS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS
IDEA...BUT THE LATEST 00Z RUN DEVELOPS ELONGATED LOW PRES AT THE
INTERSECTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH...ALBEIT
FROM DIFFERENT ORIGINS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND BUILDS WINDS TO 25
KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS WED.
THE 0030 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR
THE LOW PRES SYSTEM. THE 00Z GFS IS WEAK COMPARED TO THE ASCAT AS
IS THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS A CLOSED LOW PRES SYSTEM
HERE INITIALLY. THE ECMWF CAPS WINDS AT 20 KT AND NEVER ALLOWS
SEAS TO BUILD OVER 7 FT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS/HIGHEST SEAS
COMING IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE UKMET IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS BY PROPAGATING A STRONGER SYSTEM INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE GFS SOLUTION
GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND THE CHANGE IN THE UKMET
FORECAST TO SUPPORT A STRONGER SYSTEM. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
PRIMARILY IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER WINDS
SEEN IN THE ASCAT PASS COMPARED TO THE GFS...BUT THE GFS WAS
OTHERWISE USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE DAY-TO-DAY
FORECAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE NE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
BARB OF GALE FORCE WINDS LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. THE GFS FROM
20/00Z SHOWED THE SAME CONDITIONS. NOT INCLINED TO PULL THE
TRIGGER ON A GALE WARNING JUST YET SINCE IT IS SO BRIEF AND SMALL
IN SCALE IN THE GFS FORECAST.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH BREEZE IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH
FRI...INCREASING TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE EVENINGS
AFTER A TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE ON TUE NIGHT AND THU NIGHT. THE GFS
IS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION. THE STRONGER GFS GENERALLY DOES BEST
WITH THE LOCAL DIURNAL DRIVEN WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN...BOTH HERE
AND OVER S CENTRAL WATERS. GFS AND NWPS/MWW3 WERE USED TO ADJUST
THE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE ONLY CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD OVER
THE SW N ATLC WILL COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE N COAST OF
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION HERE AND INITIALIZED
BEST LAST NIGHT WHEN ASCAT HIT THE AREA AT THE TIME OF PEAK WINDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON THE GFS FORECAST TO ADJUST THE GRIDS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 201740
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF COAST
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WHILE STARTING TO DRIFT TO THE NW-N
THROUGH MON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL SPILL OUT INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INCREASING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PRIOR TO SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WILL MEANDER IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM E TO W ALONG 26N/27N. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE
BASIN...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NE
HALF OF THE BASIN. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT NEAR THE YUCATAN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE THERMALLY
DRIVEN TROUGH DEVELOPS EACH DAY...LOCALLY AND BRIEFLY UP TO 25 KT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB
NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN THE CARIBBEAN...MWW3 BLENDED
WITH OFFICIAL IN ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CARIBBEAN MEDIUM-
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ATLC.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE DAY-TO-DAY
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH BRIEF MINIMAL GALE
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. WILL HOLD OFF
ON A GALE WARNING HERE WHILE WAITING FOR MORE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 12-14 FT
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. A
SURROUNDING AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH 7-9 FT
SEAS. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 3-6 FT SEAS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE BASIN.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE PAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE ITCZ CURRENTLY NEAR 36W. A WEAK LOW WAS EVIDENT
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY BUT RECENT IMAGERY ALONG
WITH A FEW SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS SHOW NO
CLOSED CIRCULATION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
IN LINE WITH THE OTHER GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...TAKING THE TROPICAL
WAVE MORE WESTWARD REACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TUE NIGHT...
MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT
LEAST FRESH LEVELS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS BUILDING SEAS TO 7-8 FT.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE LATEST GFS RUN IS STILL
SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH A BULLSEYE OF
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NOTED AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY MODERATE TRADES AND 4-6 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED WITH
OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES ACROSS NEAR BERMUDA
TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS
AND 4-6 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST S OF 25N (EXCEPT 1-3 FT SEAS INSIDE
THE BAHAMAS)...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS N OF
25N. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE GFS HAD BEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRES ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE ITCZ IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC BUT
HAS BACKED OFF ON THAT SCENARIO WITH A MUCH WEAKER INDICATION OF
ANY CLOSED LOW ALONG WITH TAKING THE TROPICAL WAVE MORE WESTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE SW N ATLC
BASIN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 201740
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF COAST
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WHILE STARTING TO DRIFT TO THE NW-N
THROUGH MON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL SPILL OUT INTO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INCREASING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PRIOR TO SUNSET.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES WILL MEANDER IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM E TO W ALONG 26N/27N. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE
BASIN...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NE
HALF OF THE BASIN. WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20 KT NEAR THE YUCATAN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE THERMALLY
DRIVEN TROUGH DEVELOPS EACH DAY...LOCALLY AND BRIEFLY UP TO 25 KT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB
NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN THE CARIBBEAN...MWW3 BLENDED
WITH OFFICIAL IN ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CARIBBEAN MEDIUM-
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ATLC.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE DAY-TO-DAY
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH BRIEF MINIMAL GALE
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. WILL HOLD OFF
ON A GALE WARNING HERE WHILE WAITING FOR MORE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 12-14 FT
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. A
SURROUNDING AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH 7-9 FT
SEAS. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES AND 3-6 FT SEAS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE BASIN.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE PAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE ITCZ CURRENTLY NEAR 36W. A WEAK LOW WAS EVIDENT
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY YESTERDAY BUT RECENT IMAGERY ALONG
WITH A FEW SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS SHOW NO
CLOSED CIRCULATION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
IN LINE WITH THE OTHER GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...TAKING THE TROPICAL
WAVE MORE WESTWARD REACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TUE NIGHT...
MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT
LEAST FRESH LEVELS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS BUILDING SEAS TO 7-8 FT.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE LATEST GFS RUN IS STILL
SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH A BULLSEYE OF
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NOTED AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY MODERATE TRADES AND 4-6 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED WITH
OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES ACROSS NEAR BERMUDA
TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS
AND 4-6 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST S OF 25N (EXCEPT 1-3 FT SEAS INSIDE
THE BAHAMAS)...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS N OF
25N. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE GFS HAD BEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRES ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE ITCZ IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC BUT
HAS BACKED OFF ON THAT SCENARIO WITH A MUCH WEAKER INDICATION OF
ANY CLOSED LOW ALONG WITH TAKING THE TROPICAL WAVE MORE WESTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE SW N ATLC
BASIN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 200651
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
251 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING THE
20-25 KT THRESHOLD NEAR THE YUCATAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE THERMALLY
DRIVEN TROUGHING MIGRATING W FROM THE YUCATAN EACH NIGHT BUILDS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE
TONIGHT...WITH THE GFS STAMPING OUT A SMALL AREA OF 25 KT WINDS
OFF THE N COAST OF THE PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT WINDS AROUND
HIGH PRES MEANDERING OVER THE NE QUARTER OF THE GULF WILL CONTROL
THE FLOW THROUGH THU NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES HERE ARE RELATIVELY
MINOR. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE
FORECAST.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN THE CARIBBEAN...MWW3 BLENDED WITH
OFFICIAL IN ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CARIBBEAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN ATLC.

THE 00Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRES ALONG THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH WELL E OF THE AREA BEGINNING
MON...CAPPING WINDS AT 20 KT AND SEAS AT 7 FT BETWEEN 35W AND 40W
MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING THE WINDS/SEAS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES W. THE NEW SOLUTION IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
PREFERRED ECMWF. GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY IN THE
GFS...NOT CERTAIN THAT ITS SOLUTION IS THE BEST SOLUTION AVAILABLE
ON ITS OWN. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A FEW MORE RUNS IN LINE WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...BLENDED THE NEW GFS WITH THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL GRIDS 1:4.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE DAY-TO-DAY
FORECAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A BARB OF GALE FORCE WINDS LATE
TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WARNING
HERE...WAITING FOR MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE GFS. THE
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE TROUGHING
N OF THE AREA OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST MIGRATES WESTWARD TODAY
THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE
GFS IS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION...BUT EVEN IT SEEMS WEAK COMPARED
TO THE 0234 UTC ASCAT-B PASS. THE STRONGER GFS GENERALLY DOES BEST
WITH THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS/MWW3 WERE
USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED WITH
OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SECTION ABOVE...THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NO LONGER CARRIES A SYSTEM
NW FROM THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC TOWARD THE SW N ATLC BEGINNING
AROUND THU. WITH THE GFS NOW AGREEING WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING
AND THE OTHER MODELS THERE...IT IS FAVORED OVERALL IN THE SW N
ATLC. THE ONLY CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD
OVER THE SW N ATLC WILL COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE N
COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE 0142 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SOLID AREA
OF 20-25 KT E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AND BEST INITIALIZED MODEL
HERE. CONFIDENCE WANES SLIGHTLY IN THE GFS FORECAST WITH THE
TROUGHING JUST E OF FLORIDA. THE GFS HOLDS THIS TROUGHING FARTHER
E THAN THE ECMWF AS IT BEGINS TO RETROGRADE INTO FLORIDA TODAY
THROUGH TUE. THE ECMWF IS THE WESTERN-MOST MODEL WITH THE TROUGH.
A BLEND OF THEIR SOLUTIONS MAY BE BEST HERE. WITH THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST RELYING PRIMARILY ON THE ECMWF...BLENDING IN THE
00Z GFS THIS CYCLE CREATES A REASONABLE SOLUTION. THIS BLEND WAS
USED FOR THE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE SW N ATLC...WITH AN
EXCEPTION MADE FOR THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA WHERE THE STRONGER
GFS AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE MWW3 WERE PREFERRED.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 200651
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
251 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING THE
20-25 KT THRESHOLD NEAR THE YUCATAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE THERMALLY
DRIVEN TROUGHING MIGRATING W FROM THE YUCATAN EACH NIGHT BUILDS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE
TONIGHT...WITH THE GFS STAMPING OUT A SMALL AREA OF 25 KT WINDS
OFF THE N COAST OF THE PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT WINDS AROUND
HIGH PRES MEANDERING OVER THE NE QUARTER OF THE GULF WILL CONTROL
THE FLOW THROUGH THU NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES HERE ARE RELATIVELY
MINOR. THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE FOR ADJUSTING THE
FORECAST.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 AND TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN THE CARIBBEAN...MWW3 BLENDED WITH
OFFICIAL IN ATLC. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CARIBBEAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
IN ATLC.

THE 00Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRES ALONG THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH WELL E OF THE AREA BEGINNING
MON...CAPPING WINDS AT 20 KT AND SEAS AT 7 FT BETWEEN 35W AND 40W
MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING THE WINDS/SEAS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES W. THE NEW SOLUTION IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
PREFERRED ECMWF. GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY IN THE
GFS...NOT CERTAIN THAT ITS SOLUTION IS THE BEST SOLUTION AVAILABLE
ON ITS OWN. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A FEW MORE RUNS IN LINE WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...BLENDED THE NEW GFS WITH THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL GRIDS 1:4.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE DAY-TO-DAY
FORECAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A BARB OF GALE FORCE WINDS LATE
TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WARNING
HERE...WAITING FOR MORE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE GFS. THE
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE TROUGHING
N OF THE AREA OFF THE FLORIDA E COAST MIGRATES WESTWARD TODAY
THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE
GFS IS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION...BUT EVEN IT SEEMS WEAK COMPARED
TO THE 0234 UTC ASCAT-B PASS. THE STRONGER GFS GENERALLY DOES BEST
WITH THE STRONG GRADIENT WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS/MWW3 WERE
USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST IN THE CARIBBEAN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED WITH
OFFICIAL. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SECTION ABOVE...THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NO LONGER CARRIES A SYSTEM
NW FROM THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC TOWARD THE SW N ATLC BEGINNING
AROUND THU. WITH THE GFS NOW AGREEING WITH THE PREVIOUS THINKING
AND THE OTHER MODELS THERE...IT IS FAVORED OVERALL IN THE SW N
ATLC. THE ONLY CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD
OVER THE SW N ATLC WILL COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE N
COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE 0142 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SOLID AREA
OF 20-25 KT E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND
HISPANIOLA. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AND BEST INITIALIZED MODEL
HERE. CONFIDENCE WANES SLIGHTLY IN THE GFS FORECAST WITH THE
TROUGHING JUST E OF FLORIDA. THE GFS HOLDS THIS TROUGHING FARTHER
E THAN THE ECMWF AS IT BEGINS TO RETROGRADE INTO FLORIDA TODAY
THROUGH TUE. THE ECMWF IS THE WESTERN-MOST MODEL WITH THE TROUGH.
A BLEND OF THEIR SOLUTIONS MAY BE BEST HERE. WITH THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST RELYING PRIMARILY ON THE ECMWF...BLENDING IN THE
00Z GFS THIS CYCLE CREATES A REASONABLE SOLUTION. THIS BLEND WAS
USED FOR THE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE SW N ATLC...WITH AN
EXCEPTION MADE FOR THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA WHERE THE STRONGER
GFS AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE MWW3 WERE PREFERRED.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 191834
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
234 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT HAS BREACHED THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF COASTAL WATERS
WITH SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING MAINLY WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE. THIS
FRONT IS NOW STALLING RIGHT ALONG THE 60 NM...THEN IS FORECAST TO
LIFT BACK NW WHILE DISSIPATING INTO SUN. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE NE GULF FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE ATLC COAST OF FLORIDA
ALONG THE GULF STREAM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT W OVER FLORIDA LATER
THIS WEEKEND...POSSIBLE MAKING IT INTO THE EASTERN GULF COASTAL
WATERS. LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED FROM THIS TROUGH REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER IT MANAGES TO BREACH THE EASTERN GULF COASTAL WATERS. THE
ONLY FORESEEABLE CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD
WILL BE NEAR THE YUCATAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE THERMALLY DRIVEN
TROUGHING MIGRATING W FROM THE YUCATAN EACH NIGHT BUILDS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT
SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF...WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN THE
CARIBBEAN. ECMWF/TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN THE ATLC.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CARIBBEAN...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ATLC.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE DAY-TO-DAY
FORECAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...WITH THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPANDING
SLIGHTLY SUN AS TROUGHING N OF THE AREA OFF THE FLORIDA ATLC COAST
DRIFTS W. SEAS WILL BE 7-10 FT IN THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS...AND UP TO 12 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...BUILDING TO
UP TO 14 FT BY WED MORNING AS THE AREA OF SURROUNDING FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS EXPANDS LENGTHENING THE FETCH AREA. ALSO...WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS IN THE LATE
EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...WEAKER THEREAFTER BEFORE STRENGTHENING
BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG LATE WED EVENING INTO EARLY THU. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...ALONG WITH 3-6 FT
SEAS.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
52W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...CURRENTLY WELL E OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE GFS IS A
STRONG OUTLIER BY DEVELOPING 1014 MB LOW PRES CURRENTLY NEAR
09N31W ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...INTENSIFYING IT TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH BY MON MORNING. THE GFS ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO CLIP THE NE
CORNER OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS THU INTO THU NIGHT.
NONE OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE THIS AGGRESSIVE OR AS FAR N
WITH THIS LOW. PREFERRED TO CONTINUE TO USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION...
WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF/TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS LINGERING BETWEEN THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE ATLC
COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG THE GULF STREAM. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT W POTENTIALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE
WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS E OF 77W AND E OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH 1-3 FT
SEAS ELSEWHERE.

THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM
REACHING TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE ATLC WATERS DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK...MOVING IT NW AND CLIPPING THE NE PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL N ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS IMPACTS THE LOCATION AND
STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC BEGINNING
WED. THE ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AS IT IS CLOSER TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IT WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
ONLY CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD OVER THE SW
N ATLC WILL COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER DURING SUN EVENING...INCREASING BACK
TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS NEAR THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA MON EVENING
AND TUE EVENING.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 191834
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
234 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT HAS BREACHED THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF COASTAL WATERS
WITH SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING MAINLY WITHIN 60 NM OF SHORE. THIS
FRONT IS NOW STALLING RIGHT ALONG THE 60 NM...THEN IS FORECAST TO
LIFT BACK NW WHILE DISSIPATING INTO SUN. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE NE GULF FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE ATLC OFFSHORE OF THE ATLC COAST OF FLORIDA
ALONG THE GULF STREAM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT W OVER FLORIDA LATER
THIS WEEKEND...POSSIBLE MAKING IT INTO THE EASTERN GULF COASTAL
WATERS. LITTLE IMPACT IS EXPECTED FROM THIS TROUGH REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER IT MANAGES TO BREACH THE EASTERN GULF COASTAL WATERS. THE
ONLY FORESEEABLE CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD
WILL BE NEAR THE YUCATAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE THERMALLY DRIVEN
TROUGHING MIGRATING W FROM THE YUCATAN EACH NIGHT BUILDS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 1-3 FT
SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF...WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN THE
CARIBBEAN. ECMWF/TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL IN THE ATLC.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CARIBBEAN...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ATLC.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE DAY-TO-DAY
FORECAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU NIGHT. STRONG TO NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...WITH THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXPANDING
SLIGHTLY SUN AS TROUGHING N OF THE AREA OFF THE FLORIDA ATLC COAST
DRIFTS W. SEAS WILL BE 7-10 FT IN THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS...AND UP TO 12 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...BUILDING TO
UP TO 14 FT BY WED MORNING AS THE AREA OF SURROUNDING FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS EXPANDS LENGTHENING THE FETCH AREA. ALSO...WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS IN THE LATE
EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...WEAKER THEREAFTER BEFORE STRENGTHENING
BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG LATE WED EVENING INTO EARLY THU. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...ALONG WITH 3-6 FT
SEAS.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
52W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...CURRENTLY WELL E OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE GFS IS A
STRONG OUTLIER BY DEVELOPING 1014 MB LOW PRES CURRENTLY NEAR
09N31W ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE...INTENSIFYING IT TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH BY MON MORNING. THE GFS ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO CLIP THE NE
CORNER OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS THU INTO THU NIGHT.
NONE OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE THIS AGGRESSIVE OR AS FAR N
WITH THIS LOW. PREFERRED TO CONTINUE TO USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION...
WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF/TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH OFFICIAL.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS LINGERING BETWEEN THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE ATLC
COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG THE GULF STREAM. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT W POTENTIALLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE
WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS E OF 77W AND E OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH 1-3 FT
SEAS ELSEWHERE.

THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM
REACHING TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE ATLC WATERS DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK...MOVING IT NW AND CLIPPING THE NE PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL N ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS IMPACTS THE LOCATION AND
STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC BEGINNING
WED. THE ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AS IT IS CLOSER TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IT WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
ONLY CHANCE OF WINDS EXCEEDING THE 20-25 KT THRESHOLD OVER THE SW
N ATLC WILL COME IN THE EVENING HOURS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER DURING SUN EVENING...INCREASING BACK
TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS NEAR THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA MON EVENING
AND TUE EVENING.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





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