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000
AGXX40 KNHC 241809
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
209 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL...THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR LATER PART OF PERIOD. LATEST
EC WAVE AND TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL SEAS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE
1-2 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF OF MEXICO WERE TRANSPORTING SMOKE FROM
AGRICULTURAL BURNING OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL ALSO NOT MAKE IT FAR INTO THE
GULF WATERS BEFORE STALLING AND RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. A THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS TUE. THIS
FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR MISSISSIPPI TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY
TUE NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR
EARLY PART OF FORECAST THEN BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR LATER PART OF
FORECAST PERIOD. BLEND OF EC WAVE AND TAFB NWPS WITH THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON THEN MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TUE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...AND LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE
5-7 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE N
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...1-3 FT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND 6-8 FT IN NE SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS. WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH
NIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAKENING RIDGE N OF THE AREA
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEKEND. NE SWELLS OVER THE TROPICAL
N ATLC WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MON...THEN THERE IS A
DIFFERENCE OF SOLUTIONS LATE MON INTO TUE IN REGARDS TO PRESSURES
N OF THE AREA WHICH WILL AFFECT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

 ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR
EARLY PART OF FORECAST THEN BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR LATER PART OF
FORECAST PERIOD. BLEND OF EC WAVE AND TAFB NWPS WITH THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FOR SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND N OF 29N E OF THE
FRONT. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE
4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...3-5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND MOVE E OF THE AREA BY
SUN. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY MON
AND WILL STALL ALONG 25N BY TUE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM
FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH REGARDS TO WINDS SUNDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 241809
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
209 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL...THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR LATER PART OF PERIOD. LATEST
EC WAVE AND TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL SEAS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE
1-2 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF OF MEXICO WERE TRANSPORTING SMOKE FROM
AGRICULTURAL BURNING OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL ALSO NOT MAKE IT FAR INTO THE
GULF WATERS BEFORE STALLING AND RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. A THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS TUE. THIS
FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR MISSISSIPPI TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY
TUE NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR
EARLY PART OF FORECAST THEN BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR LATER PART OF
FORECAST PERIOD. BLEND OF EC WAVE AND TAFB NWPS WITH THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON THEN MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TUE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...AND LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE
5-7 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE N
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...1-3 FT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND 6-8 FT IN NE SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS. WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH
NIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAKENING RIDGE N OF THE AREA
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEKEND. NE SWELLS OVER THE TROPICAL
N ATLC WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MON...THEN THERE IS A
DIFFERENCE OF SOLUTIONS LATE MON INTO TUE IN REGARDS TO PRESSURES
N OF THE AREA WHICH WILL AFFECT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

 ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR
EARLY PART OF FORECAST THEN BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR LATER PART OF
FORECAST PERIOD. BLEND OF EC WAVE AND TAFB NWPS WITH THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FOR SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND N OF 29N E OF THE
FRONT. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE
4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...3-5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND MOVE E OF THE AREA BY
SUN. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY MON
AND WILL STALL ALONG 25N BY TUE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM
FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH REGARDS TO WINDS SUNDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 241809
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
209 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL...THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR LATER PART OF PERIOD. LATEST
EC WAVE AND TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL SEAS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE
1-2 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF OF MEXICO WERE TRANSPORTING SMOKE FROM
AGRICULTURAL BURNING OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL ALSO NOT MAKE IT FAR INTO THE
GULF WATERS BEFORE STALLING AND RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. A THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS TUE. THIS
FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR MISSISSIPPI TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY
TUE NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR
EARLY PART OF FORECAST THEN BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR LATER PART OF
FORECAST PERIOD. BLEND OF EC WAVE AND TAFB NWPS WITH THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON THEN MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TUE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...AND LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE
5-7 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE N
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...1-3 FT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND 6-8 FT IN NE SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS. WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH
NIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAKENING RIDGE N OF THE AREA
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEKEND. NE SWELLS OVER THE TROPICAL
N ATLC WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MON...THEN THERE IS A
DIFFERENCE OF SOLUTIONS LATE MON INTO TUE IN REGARDS TO PRESSURES
N OF THE AREA WHICH WILL AFFECT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

 ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR
EARLY PART OF FORECAST THEN BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR LATER PART OF
FORECAST PERIOD. BLEND OF EC WAVE AND TAFB NWPS WITH THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FOR SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND N OF 29N E OF THE
FRONT. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE
4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...3-5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND MOVE E OF THE AREA BY
SUN. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY MON
AND WILL STALL ALONG 25N BY TUE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM
FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH REGARDS TO WINDS SUNDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 241809
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
209 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL...THEN GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR LATER PART OF PERIOD. LATEST
EC WAVE AND TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL SEAS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE
1-2 FT OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND 2-3 FT OVER THE WESTERN WATERS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OFF OF MEXICO WERE TRANSPORTING SMOKE FROM
AGRICULTURAL BURNING OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WILL ALSO NOT MAKE IT FAR INTO THE
GULF WATERS BEFORE STALLING AND RETREATING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. A THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS TUE. THIS
FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR MISSISSIPPI TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY
TUE NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR
EARLY PART OF FORECAST THEN BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR LATER PART OF
FORECAST PERIOD. BLEND OF EC WAVE AND TAFB NWPS WITH THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FOR SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON THEN MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TUE.

LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...
AND CMAN DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...AND LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE
5-7 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE N
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...1-3 FT OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND 6-8 FT IN NE SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS. WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH
NIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAKENING RIDGE N OF THE AREA
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEKEND. NE SWELLS OVER THE TROPICAL
N ATLC WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MON...THEN THERE IS A
DIFFERENCE OF SOLUTIONS LATE MON INTO TUE IN REGARDS TO PRESSURES
N OF THE AREA WHICH WILL AFFECT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

 ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR
EARLY PART OF FORECAST THEN BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS FOR LATER PART OF
FORECAST PERIOD. BLEND OF EC WAVE AND TAFB NWPS WITH THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FOR SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND N OF 29N E OF THE
FRONT. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE
4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...3-5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND MOVE E OF THE AREA BY
SUN. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY MON
AND WILL STALL ALONG 25N BY TUE. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM
FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH REGARDS TO WINDS SUNDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 240615
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. 12Z EC
WAVE AND 00Z TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL SEAS. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AGREE ON DIPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
NE GULF ON MON MORNING AND THEN BUILD FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE N CENTRAL/NW GULF ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS IN
THAT AREA AND BEFORE RETREATING N IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THE ECMWF GOES ON TO SHOW STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE WARM FRONT MON
NIGHT INTO TUE WHEN AN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND THOUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGHING EXPECTED
TO MOVE E ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MON NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF DEEPER THAN THE GFS WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEM THEY
BOTH TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF COASTAL
STATES. THE 00Z UKMET SIDES WITH THE DEEPER ECMWF. THE GFS CARRIES
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC
TUE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND ALSO HAS MORE SUPPORT
FROM THE UKMET. THE GFS FOCUSES THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SW GULF
BY WED AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE
REMAINING PRIMARILY NEAR THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE ECMWF
PATTERN LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AND HAS MORE ENS SUPPORT. WILL SIDE
WITH THE ECMWF/EC WAVE AS THE PRIMARY TOOLS FOR ADJUSTING THE
FORECAST.

NESDIS/SAB SMOKE PRODUCTS INDICATE FIRES MAINLY FROM AGRICULTURAL
BURNING ARE SUPPLYING SMOKE TO A LARGE PORTION OVER THE GULF S OF
26N W OF 87W. THERE ARE FEW OBSERVATIONS TO CONFIRM VISIBILITIES
HERE...BUT THEY ARE BELIEVED TO BE IN THE 3-5 SM RANGE IN
SMOKE/HAZE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EACH NIGHT AND MOVE W ACROSS THE SW GULF DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL HELP
PROPEL SOME OF THE SMOKE WESTWARD TODAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT AND THE MEAN FLOW MAY DIRECT
SMOKE FARTHER NORTHWARD IN THE CENTRAL GULF SAT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH THE EC WAVE FOR SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS BY MON NIGHT WHEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE SURFACE PATTERN N OF THE AREA. THE GFS
SUPPORTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC BUT IS
SLOWER TO ADVANCE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE
INTO WED COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THIS TIMING IS IMPORTANT IN THE
AREAS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE N OR NE
AND CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRES IS DETERMINING THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS. A FRESH TO STRONG SE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PULSE EACH
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON THE S
SIDE OF A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE
A BIT HARDER TO PREDICT DUE TO THE VARIABILITY N OF THE AREA. THE
GFS STOPS ALLOWING WINDS TO REACH THE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE
THRESHOLD CONSISTENTLY BY SAT NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS THE FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZE TO THE S CENTRAL AND SE CARIB MON NIGHT. THE ECMWF
IS GENERALLY WEAKER...HAVING A SMALLER AREA OF THE FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OFF COLOMBIA FRI NIGHT THAN THE GFS AND SHOWING WINDS
STRENGTHENING MORE SLOWLY IN THE S CENTRAL AND SE CARIB TUE NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED TO THE N AND IT IS PREFERRED HERE. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT IS MAY BE TOO LIGHT IN THESE LOCAL AREAS...SO
THE BLEND WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS KEPT MORE HEAVILY
WEIGHTED TOWARD CONTINUITY. THIS LENDED ITSELF FOR USING THE NWPS
PRIMARILY FOR THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE WAVE...WITH THE EC WAVE ADDED
IN TO ADJUST FOR THE PREFERRED WIND FORECAST.

 ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. EC WAVE
AND TAFB NWPS FOR SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST EC ENS
AND GEFS MEANS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE SOME
GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES HERE. IT DEVELOPS A GALE OVER ZONE
AMZ113 SUN MORNING. THIS IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE ECMWF IS ALSO
FAVORED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE ATLC TUE INTO WED. THE ECMWF WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST.
ITS WAVE MODEL WAS USED AS WELL...WITH CONFIDENCE HIGHER IN ITS
HANDLING OF SWELL ORIGINATING N OF THE AREA THAN THE MWW3. THE
TAFBNWPS WAS USED PRIMARILY AROUND THE BAHAMAS WHERE BATHYMETRY
PLAYS A LARGER ROLE IN THE FORECAST FOR SEAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 240615
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. 12Z EC
WAVE AND 00Z TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL SEAS. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AGREE ON DIPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
NE GULF ON MON MORNING AND THEN BUILD FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE N CENTRAL/NW GULF ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS IN
THAT AREA AND BEFORE RETREATING N IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THE ECMWF GOES ON TO SHOW STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE WARM FRONT MON
NIGHT INTO TUE WHEN AN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND THOUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGHING EXPECTED
TO MOVE E ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MON NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF DEEPER THAN THE GFS WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEM THEY
BOTH TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF COASTAL
STATES. THE 00Z UKMET SIDES WITH THE DEEPER ECMWF. THE GFS CARRIES
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC
TUE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND ALSO HAS MORE SUPPORT
FROM THE UKMET. THE GFS FOCUSES THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SW GULF
BY WED AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE
REMAINING PRIMARILY NEAR THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE ECMWF
PATTERN LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AND HAS MORE ENS SUPPORT. WILL SIDE
WITH THE ECMWF/EC WAVE AS THE PRIMARY TOOLS FOR ADJUSTING THE
FORECAST.

NESDIS/SAB SMOKE PRODUCTS INDICATE FIRES MAINLY FROM AGRICULTURAL
BURNING ARE SUPPLYING SMOKE TO A LARGE PORTION OVER THE GULF S OF
26N W OF 87W. THERE ARE FEW OBSERVATIONS TO CONFIRM VISIBILITIES
HERE...BUT THEY ARE BELIEVED TO BE IN THE 3-5 SM RANGE IN
SMOKE/HAZE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EACH NIGHT AND MOVE W ACROSS THE SW GULF DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL HELP
PROPEL SOME OF THE SMOKE WESTWARD TODAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT AND THE MEAN FLOW MAY DIRECT
SMOKE FARTHER NORTHWARD IN THE CENTRAL GULF SAT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH THE EC WAVE FOR SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS BY MON NIGHT WHEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE SURFACE PATTERN N OF THE AREA. THE GFS
SUPPORTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC BUT IS
SLOWER TO ADVANCE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE
INTO WED COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THIS TIMING IS IMPORTANT IN THE
AREAS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE N OR NE
AND CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRES IS DETERMINING THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS. A FRESH TO STRONG SE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PULSE EACH
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON THE S
SIDE OF A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE
A BIT HARDER TO PREDICT DUE TO THE VARIABILITY N OF THE AREA. THE
GFS STOPS ALLOWING WINDS TO REACH THE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE
THRESHOLD CONSISTENTLY BY SAT NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS THE FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZE TO THE S CENTRAL AND SE CARIB MON NIGHT. THE ECMWF
IS GENERALLY WEAKER...HAVING A SMALLER AREA OF THE FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OFF COLOMBIA FRI NIGHT THAN THE GFS AND SHOWING WINDS
STRENGTHENING MORE SLOWLY IN THE S CENTRAL AND SE CARIB TUE NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED TO THE N AND IT IS PREFERRED HERE. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT IS MAY BE TOO LIGHT IN THESE LOCAL AREAS...SO
THE BLEND WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS KEPT MORE HEAVILY
WEIGHTED TOWARD CONTINUITY. THIS LENDED ITSELF FOR USING THE NWPS
PRIMARILY FOR THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE WAVE...WITH THE EC WAVE ADDED
IN TO ADJUST FOR THE PREFERRED WIND FORECAST.

 ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. EC WAVE
AND TAFB NWPS FOR SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST EC ENS
AND GEFS MEANS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE SOME
GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES HERE. IT DEVELOPS A GALE OVER ZONE
AMZ113 SUN MORNING. THIS IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE ECMWF IS ALSO
FAVORED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE ATLC TUE INTO WED. THE ECMWF WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST.
ITS WAVE MODEL WAS USED AS WELL...WITH CONFIDENCE HIGHER IN ITS
HANDLING OF SWELL ORIGINATING N OF THE AREA THAN THE MWW3. THE
TAFBNWPS WAS USED PRIMARILY AROUND THE BAHAMAS WHERE BATHYMETRY
PLAYS A LARGER ROLE IN THE FORECAST FOR SEAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 240615
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. 12Z EC
WAVE AND 00Z TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL SEAS. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AGREE ON DIPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
NE GULF ON MON MORNING AND THEN BUILD FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE N CENTRAL/NW GULF ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS IN
THAT AREA AND BEFORE RETREATING N IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THE ECMWF GOES ON TO SHOW STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE WARM FRONT MON
NIGHT INTO TUE WHEN AN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND THOUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGHING EXPECTED
TO MOVE E ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MON NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF DEEPER THAN THE GFS WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEM THEY
BOTH TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF COASTAL
STATES. THE 00Z UKMET SIDES WITH THE DEEPER ECMWF. THE GFS CARRIES
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC
TUE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND ALSO HAS MORE SUPPORT
FROM THE UKMET. THE GFS FOCUSES THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SW GULF
BY WED AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE
REMAINING PRIMARILY NEAR THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE ECMWF
PATTERN LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AND HAS MORE ENS SUPPORT. WILL SIDE
WITH THE ECMWF/EC WAVE AS THE PRIMARY TOOLS FOR ADJUSTING THE
FORECAST.

NESDIS/SAB SMOKE PRODUCTS INDICATE FIRES MAINLY FROM AGRICULTURAL
BURNING ARE SUPPLYING SMOKE TO A LARGE PORTION OVER THE GULF S OF
26N W OF 87W. THERE ARE FEW OBSERVATIONS TO CONFIRM VISIBILITIES
HERE...BUT THEY ARE BELIEVED TO BE IN THE 3-5 SM RANGE IN
SMOKE/HAZE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EACH NIGHT AND MOVE W ACROSS THE SW GULF DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL HELP
PROPEL SOME OF THE SMOKE WESTWARD TODAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT AND THE MEAN FLOW MAY DIRECT
SMOKE FARTHER NORTHWARD IN THE CENTRAL GULF SAT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH THE EC WAVE FOR SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS BY MON NIGHT WHEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE SURFACE PATTERN N OF THE AREA. THE GFS
SUPPORTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC BUT IS
SLOWER TO ADVANCE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE
INTO WED COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THIS TIMING IS IMPORTANT IN THE
AREAS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE N OR NE
AND CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRES IS DETERMINING THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS. A FRESH TO STRONG SE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PULSE EACH
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON THE S
SIDE OF A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE
A BIT HARDER TO PREDICT DUE TO THE VARIABILITY N OF THE AREA. THE
GFS STOPS ALLOWING WINDS TO REACH THE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE
THRESHOLD CONSISTENTLY BY SAT NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS THE FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZE TO THE S CENTRAL AND SE CARIB MON NIGHT. THE ECMWF
IS GENERALLY WEAKER...HAVING A SMALLER AREA OF THE FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OFF COLOMBIA FRI NIGHT THAN THE GFS AND SHOWING WINDS
STRENGTHENING MORE SLOWLY IN THE S CENTRAL AND SE CARIB TUE NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED TO THE N AND IT IS PREFERRED HERE. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT IS MAY BE TOO LIGHT IN THESE LOCAL AREAS...SO
THE BLEND WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS KEPT MORE HEAVILY
WEIGHTED TOWARD CONTINUITY. THIS LENDED ITSELF FOR USING THE NWPS
PRIMARILY FOR THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE WAVE...WITH THE EC WAVE ADDED
IN TO ADJUST FOR THE PREFERRED WIND FORECAST.

 ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. EC WAVE
AND TAFB NWPS FOR SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST EC ENS
AND GEFS MEANS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE SOME
GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES HERE. IT DEVELOPS A GALE OVER ZONE
AMZ113 SUN MORNING. THIS IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE ECMWF IS ALSO
FAVORED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE ATLC TUE INTO WED. THE ECMWF WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST.
ITS WAVE MODEL WAS USED AS WELL...WITH CONFIDENCE HIGHER IN ITS
HANDLING OF SWELL ORIGINATING N OF THE AREA THAN THE MWW3. THE
TAFBNWPS WAS USED PRIMARILY AROUND THE BAHAMAS WHERE BATHYMETRY
PLAYS A LARGER ROLE IN THE FORECAST FOR SEAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 240615
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. 12Z EC
WAVE AND 00Z TAFB NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL SEAS. LOW
CONFIDENCE.

THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF AGREE ON DIPPING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
NE GULF ON MON MORNING AND THEN BUILD FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE N CENTRAL/NW GULF ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS IN
THAT AREA AND BEFORE RETREATING N IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THE ECMWF GOES ON TO SHOW STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE WARM FRONT MON
NIGHT INTO TUE WHEN AN UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND THOUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGHING EXPECTED
TO MOVE E ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MON NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT
WITH THE ECMWF DEEPER THAN THE GFS WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEM THEY
BOTH TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF COASTAL
STATES. THE 00Z UKMET SIDES WITH THE DEEPER ECMWF. THE GFS CARRIES
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC
TUE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND ALSO HAS MORE SUPPORT
FROM THE UKMET. THE GFS FOCUSES THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SW GULF
BY WED AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE
REMAINING PRIMARILY NEAR THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE ECMWF
PATTERN LOOKS MORE REASONABLE AND HAS MORE ENS SUPPORT. WILL SIDE
WITH THE ECMWF/EC WAVE AS THE PRIMARY TOOLS FOR ADJUSTING THE
FORECAST.

NESDIS/SAB SMOKE PRODUCTS INDICATE FIRES MAINLY FROM AGRICULTURAL
BURNING ARE SUPPLYING SMOKE TO A LARGE PORTION OVER THE GULF S OF
26N W OF 87W. THERE ARE FEW OBSERVATIONS TO CONFIRM VISIBILITIES
HERE...BUT THEY ARE BELIEVED TO BE IN THE 3-5 SM RANGE IN
SMOKE/HAZE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W OFF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EACH NIGHT AND MOVE W ACROSS THE SW GULF DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL HELP
PROPEL SOME OF THE SMOKE WESTWARD TODAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT AND THE MEAN FLOW MAY DIRECT
SMOKE FARTHER NORTHWARD IN THE CENTRAL GULF SAT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS
BLENDED WITH THE EC WAVE FOR SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS BY MON NIGHT WHEN THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE SURFACE PATTERN N OF THE AREA. THE GFS
SUPPORTS A MORE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC BUT IS
SLOWER TO ADVANCE THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE
INTO WED COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THIS TIMING IS IMPORTANT IN THE
AREAS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE N OR NE
AND CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRES IS DETERMINING THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS. A FRESH TO STRONG SE BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PULSE EACH
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON THE S
SIDE OF A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE
A BIT HARDER TO PREDICT DUE TO THE VARIABILITY N OF THE AREA. THE
GFS STOPS ALLOWING WINDS TO REACH THE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE
THRESHOLD CONSISTENTLY BY SAT NIGHT...THEN SHIFTS THE FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZE TO THE S CENTRAL AND SE CARIB MON NIGHT. THE ECMWF
IS GENERALLY WEAKER...HAVING A SMALLER AREA OF THE FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OFF COLOMBIA FRI NIGHT THAN THE GFS AND SHOWING WINDS
STRENGTHENING MORE SLOWLY IN THE S CENTRAL AND SE CARIB TUE NIGHT.
THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED TO THE N AND IT IS PREFERRED HERE. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT IS MAY BE TOO LIGHT IN THESE LOCAL AREAS...SO
THE BLEND WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS KEPT MORE HEAVILY
WEIGHTED TOWARD CONTINUITY. THIS LENDED ITSELF FOR USING THE NWPS
PRIMARILY FOR THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE WAVE...WITH THE EC WAVE ADDED
IN TO ADJUST FOR THE PREFERRED WIND FORECAST.

 ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. EC WAVE
AND TAFB NWPS FOR SEAS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST EC ENS
AND GEFS MEANS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SAT NIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE SOME
GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES HERE. IT DEVELOPS A GALE OVER ZONE
AMZ113 SUN MORNING. THIS IS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE ECMWF IS ALSO
FAVORED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE ATLC TUE INTO WED. THE ECMWF WAS USED TO ADJUST THE FORECAST.
ITS WAVE MODEL WAS USED AS WELL...WITH CONFIDENCE HIGHER IN ITS
HANDLING OF SWELL ORIGINATING N OF THE AREA THAN THE MWW3. THE
TAFBNWPS WAS USED PRIMARILY AROUND THE BAHAMAS WHERE BATHYMETRY
PLAYS A LARGER ROLE IN THE FORECAST FOR SEAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 231754
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
154 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED
WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WINDS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AGRICULTURE SMOKE INDICATED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS THE E BAY
OF CAMPECHE...SO WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VSBY 3-5 SM SMOKE/HAZE IN 1ST
PERIOD. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NW FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT
AND MOVE W ACROSS THE SW GULF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF ON SAT NIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON SUN. SE FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ON MON AND MON NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED
WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WINDS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW
COLOMBIA...WILL SUPPORT 20-25 ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE
AREA OF WINDS SHOULD SHRINK FRI...THEN BECOME 20 KT LESS WITH SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
NNE SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARDS
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT. THESE SEAS WILL PROPAGATE SW
REACHING THE E AND SE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRI...THEN SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH COMBINED
SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SUN.

 ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED
WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WINDS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N65W 24N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST
TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT
AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE N OF PUERTO RICO ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST SAT NIGHT
AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON SUN AND FROM
NEAR 29N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MON.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 231754
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
154 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED
WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WINDS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AGRICULTURE SMOKE INDICATED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS THE E BAY
OF CAMPECHE...SO WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VSBY 3-5 SM SMOKE/HAZE IN 1ST
PERIOD. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NW FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT
AND MOVE W ACROSS THE SW GULF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF ON SAT NIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON SUN. SE FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ON MON AND MON NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED
WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WINDS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW
COLOMBIA...WILL SUPPORT 20-25 ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE
AREA OF WINDS SHOULD SHRINK FRI...THEN BECOME 20 KT LESS WITH SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
NNE SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARDS
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT. THESE SEAS WILL PROPAGATE SW
REACHING THE E AND SE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRI...THEN SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH COMBINED
SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SUN.

 ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED
WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WINDS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N65W 24N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST
TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT
AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE N OF PUERTO RICO ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST SAT NIGHT
AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON SUN AND FROM
NEAR 29N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MON.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 231754
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
154 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED
WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WINDS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AGRICULTURE SMOKE INDICATED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS THE E BAY
OF CAMPECHE...SO WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VSBY 3-5 SM SMOKE/HAZE IN 1ST
PERIOD. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NW FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT
AND MOVE W ACROSS THE SW GULF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF ON SAT NIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON SUN. SE FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ON MON AND MON NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED
WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WINDS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW
COLOMBIA...WILL SUPPORT 20-25 ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE
AREA OF WINDS SHOULD SHRINK FRI...THEN BECOME 20 KT LESS WITH SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
NNE SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARDS
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT. THESE SEAS WILL PROPAGATE SW
REACHING THE E AND SE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRI...THEN SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH COMBINED
SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SUN.

 ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED
WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WINDS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N65W 24N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST
TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT
AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE N OF PUERTO RICO ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST SAT NIGHT
AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON SUN AND FROM
NEAR 29N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MON.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 231754
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
154 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED
WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WINDS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AGRICULTURE SMOKE INDICATED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS THE E BAY
OF CAMPECHE...SO WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VSBY 3-5 SM SMOKE/HAZE IN 1ST
PERIOD. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NW FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE W OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT
AND MOVE W ACROSS THE SW GULF DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF ON SAT NIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON SUN. SE FLOW WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ON MON AND MON NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED
WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WINDS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW
COLOMBIA...WILL SUPPORT 20-25 ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE
AREA OF WINDS SHOULD SHRINK FRI...THEN BECOME 20 KT LESS WITH SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT SUN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
NNE SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARDS
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT. THESE SEAS WILL PROPAGATE SW
REACHING THE E AND SE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRI...THEN SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT...WITH COMBINED
SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SUN.

 ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED
WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WINDS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N65W 24N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST
TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT
AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE N OF PUERTO RICO ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST SAT NIGHT
AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON SUN AND FROM
NEAR 29N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MON.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 230524
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
124 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AGRICULTURE SMOKE INDICATED ON LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS THE E
BAY OF CAMPECHE...SO WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VSBY 3-5 SM SMOKE/HAZE
1ST AND 2ND PERIOD. BROAD REMNANTS OF A FRONT EXTEND NW FROM THE
FL STRAITS TO THE TX COASTAL BEND. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO LIFT
N-NE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT
SHRA/ISOL TS. EXPECT THE LOCALIZED EVENING THERMAL ENHANCEMENT
ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BE IN THE 20-25
KT RANGE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUN AND MON EVENINGS...
OTHERWISE 15-20 KT ENHANCEMENTS EXPECTED EACH EVENING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE E-SE PULSES WILL PROPAGATE WNW ACROSS THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH THE
TROUGH LOSING IDENTITY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOONS. THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THIS 15-20 KT ENHANCEMENT WILL REACH NEAR 26N94W. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL WATERS SAT NIGHT
AND STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AGRICULTURE SMOKE INDICATED ON LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...SO WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VSBY 3-5 SM SMOKE/HAZE
1ST AND 2ND PERIOD. ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH
LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT NE WINDS
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT...THEN THE
AFFECTED AREA SHOULD SHRINK TO WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN
COAST ON EACH NIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. E-SE TRADES
WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. NNE SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS NE OF
THE LEEWARDS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT. THESE SEAS WILL
PROPAGATE SW REACHING THE E AND SE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRI...THEN SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON FRI NIGHT AND
SAT...WITH COMBINED SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SUN.

 ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB
NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS MOSTLY ECMWF WITH
MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA. MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH EARLY SAT THEN LOW CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM 31N60W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS
TO THE FL STRAITS AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA WITH A FEW TS.
THE FRONTAL SEGMENT N OF OF 26N WILL MOVE E AGAIN TODAY AND
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W FRI. THE SOUTHERN
SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. N SWELLS...WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT...HAVE PROPAGATED S ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 26N E OF 62W. THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE
FROM THE N TODAY WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY TONIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 29N75W WILL SHIFT ESE TO NEAR 26N71W TONIGHT
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO NE TO 29N79W. THE RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY RETRACT E THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE NE FL COAST...AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS FRI AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 10-15 KT SW-W-
NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N. A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF
GUIDANCE MOVES THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM 31N57W TO THE SE BAHAMAS
ON SAT. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT WASHES OUT N OF PUERTO RICO ON
SAT...WHILE THE THE NORTHERN SEGMENT PASSES E THROUGH THE WATERS
BETWEEN 65-55W ON SUN. THE BIG CHANGE IS THE POST-FRONTAL NW
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT N OF 29N WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE
FRONT ON FRI AND SAT WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT.

THE SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE
BAHAMAS ON SAT...FURTHER INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 30N EITHER
SIDE OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE NE FL COAST ON SAT EVENING.
THE EXTENT OF THE 20-25 KT FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL SHIFT S TO
ALONG 27N ON SUN. THIS STRONGER FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO
THE NW BAHAMAS LATE SUN. LITTLE CONFIDENCE ATTM SO EXPECT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LAST FRONT IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 230524
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
124 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AGRICULTURE SMOKE INDICATED ON LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS THE E
BAY OF CAMPECHE...SO WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VSBY 3-5 SM SMOKE/HAZE
1ST AND 2ND PERIOD. BROAD REMNANTS OF A FRONT EXTEND NW FROM THE
FL STRAITS TO THE TX COASTAL BEND. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO LIFT
N-NE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT
SHRA/ISOL TS. EXPECT THE LOCALIZED EVENING THERMAL ENHANCEMENT
ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BE IN THE 20-25
KT RANGE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUN AND MON EVENINGS...
OTHERWISE 15-20 KT ENHANCEMENTS EXPECTED EACH EVENING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE E-SE PULSES WILL PROPAGATE WNW ACROSS THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH THE
TROUGH LOSING IDENTITY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOONS. THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THIS 15-20 KT ENHANCEMENT WILL REACH NEAR 26N94W. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL WATERS SAT NIGHT
AND STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AGRICULTURE SMOKE INDICATED ON LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...SO WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VSBY 3-5 SM SMOKE/HAZE
1ST AND 2ND PERIOD. ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH
LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT NE WINDS
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT...THEN THE
AFFECTED AREA SHOULD SHRINK TO WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN
COAST ON EACH NIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. E-SE TRADES
WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. NNE SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS NE OF
THE LEEWARDS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT. THESE SEAS WILL
PROPAGATE SW REACHING THE E AND SE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRI...THEN SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON FRI NIGHT AND
SAT...WITH COMBINED SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SUN.

 ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB
NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS MOSTLY ECMWF WITH
MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA. MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH EARLY SAT THEN LOW CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM 31N60W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS
TO THE FL STRAITS AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA WITH A FEW TS.
THE FRONTAL SEGMENT N OF OF 26N WILL MOVE E AGAIN TODAY AND
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W FRI. THE SOUTHERN
SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. N SWELLS...WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT...HAVE PROPAGATED S ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 26N E OF 62W. THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE
FROM THE N TODAY WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY TONIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 29N75W WILL SHIFT ESE TO NEAR 26N71W TONIGHT
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO NE TO 29N79W. THE RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY RETRACT E THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE NE FL COAST...AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS FRI AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 10-15 KT SW-W-
NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N. A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF
GUIDANCE MOVES THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM 31N57W TO THE SE BAHAMAS
ON SAT. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT WASHES OUT N OF PUERTO RICO ON
SAT...WHILE THE THE NORTHERN SEGMENT PASSES E THROUGH THE WATERS
BETWEEN 65-55W ON SUN. THE BIG CHANGE IS THE POST-FRONTAL NW
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT N OF 29N WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE
FRONT ON FRI AND SAT WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT.

THE SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE
BAHAMAS ON SAT...FURTHER INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 30N EITHER
SIDE OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE NE FL COAST ON SAT EVENING.
THE EXTENT OF THE 20-25 KT FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL SHIFT S TO
ALONG 27N ON SUN. THIS STRONGER FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO
THE NW BAHAMAS LATE SUN. LITTLE CONFIDENCE ATTM SO EXPECT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LAST FRONT IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 230524
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
124 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AGRICULTURE SMOKE INDICATED ON LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS THE E
BAY OF CAMPECHE...SO WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VSBY 3-5 SM SMOKE/HAZE
1ST AND 2ND PERIOD. BROAD REMNANTS OF A FRONT EXTEND NW FROM THE
FL STRAITS TO THE TX COASTAL BEND. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO LIFT
N-NE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT
SHRA/ISOL TS. EXPECT THE LOCALIZED EVENING THERMAL ENHANCEMENT
ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BE IN THE 20-25
KT RANGE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUN AND MON EVENINGS...
OTHERWISE 15-20 KT ENHANCEMENTS EXPECTED EACH EVENING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE E-SE PULSES WILL PROPAGATE WNW ACROSS THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH THE
TROUGH LOSING IDENTITY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOONS. THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THIS 15-20 KT ENHANCEMENT WILL REACH NEAR 26N94W. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL WATERS SAT NIGHT
AND STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AGRICULTURE SMOKE INDICATED ON LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...SO WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VSBY 3-5 SM SMOKE/HAZE
1ST AND 2ND PERIOD. ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH
LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT NE WINDS
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT...THEN THE
AFFECTED AREA SHOULD SHRINK TO WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN
COAST ON EACH NIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. E-SE TRADES
WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. NNE SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS NE OF
THE LEEWARDS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT. THESE SEAS WILL
PROPAGATE SW REACHING THE E AND SE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRI...THEN SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON FRI NIGHT AND
SAT...WITH COMBINED SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SUN.

 ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB
NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS MOSTLY ECMWF WITH
MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA. MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH EARLY SAT THEN LOW CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM 31N60W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS
TO THE FL STRAITS AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA WITH A FEW TS.
THE FRONTAL SEGMENT N OF OF 26N WILL MOVE E AGAIN TODAY AND
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W FRI. THE SOUTHERN
SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. N SWELLS...WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT...HAVE PROPAGATED S ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 26N E OF 62W. THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE
FROM THE N TODAY WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY TONIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 29N75W WILL SHIFT ESE TO NEAR 26N71W TONIGHT
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO NE TO 29N79W. THE RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY RETRACT E THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE NE FL COAST...AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS FRI AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 10-15 KT SW-W-
NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N. A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF
GUIDANCE MOVES THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM 31N57W TO THE SE BAHAMAS
ON SAT. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT WASHES OUT N OF PUERTO RICO ON
SAT...WHILE THE THE NORTHERN SEGMENT PASSES E THROUGH THE WATERS
BETWEEN 65-55W ON SUN. THE BIG CHANGE IS THE POST-FRONTAL NW
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT N OF 29N WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE
FRONT ON FRI AND SAT WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT.

THE SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE
BAHAMAS ON SAT...FURTHER INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 30N EITHER
SIDE OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE NE FL COAST ON SAT EVENING.
THE EXTENT OF THE 20-25 KT FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL SHIFT S TO
ALONG 27N ON SUN. THIS STRONGER FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO
THE NW BAHAMAS LATE SUN. LITTLE CONFIDENCE ATTM SO EXPECT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LAST FRONT IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 230524
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
124 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AGRICULTURE SMOKE INDICATED ON LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS THE E
BAY OF CAMPECHE...SO WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VSBY 3-5 SM SMOKE/HAZE
1ST AND 2ND PERIOD. BROAD REMNANTS OF A FRONT EXTEND NW FROM THE
FL STRAITS TO THE TX COASTAL BEND. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO LIFT
N-NE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT
SHRA/ISOL TS. EXPECT THE LOCALIZED EVENING THERMAL ENHANCEMENT
ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BE IN THE 20-25
KT RANGE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUN AND MON EVENINGS...
OTHERWISE 15-20 KT ENHANCEMENTS EXPECTED EACH EVENING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THESE E-SE PULSES WILL PROPAGATE WNW ACROSS THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH THE
TROUGH LOSING IDENTITY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOONS. THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THIS 15-20 KT ENHANCEMENT WILL REACH NEAR 26N94W. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL WATERS SAT NIGHT
AND STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AGRICULTURE SMOKE INDICATED ON LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...SO WILL CONTINUE LOCAL VSBY 3-5 SM SMOKE/HAZE
1ST AND 2ND PERIOD. ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH
LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA...WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT NE WINDS
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT...THEN THE
AFFECTED AREA SHOULD SHRINK TO WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN
COAST ON EACH NIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. E-SE TRADES
WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. NNE SWELL HAS MOVED INTO THE TROPICAL WATERS NE OF
THE LEEWARDS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 6-8 FT. THESE SEAS WILL
PROPAGATE SW REACHING THE E AND SE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRI...THEN SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON FRI NIGHT AND
SAT...WITH COMBINED SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY SUN.

 ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB
NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS MOSTLY ECMWF WITH
MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA. MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH EARLY SAT THEN LOW CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM 31N60W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS
TO THE FL STRAITS AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA WITH A FEW TS.
THE FRONTAL SEGMENT N OF OF 26N WILL MOVE E AGAIN TODAY AND
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W FRI. THE SOUTHERN
SEGMENT OF FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. N SWELLS...WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT...HAVE PROPAGATED S ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 26N E OF 62W. THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE
FROM THE N TODAY WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY EARLY TONIGHT. A
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 29N75W WILL SHIFT ESE TO NEAR 26N71W TONIGHT
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO NE TO 29N79W. THE RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY RETRACT E THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE NE FL COAST...AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS FRI AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 10-15 KT SW-W-
NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N. A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF
GUIDANCE MOVES THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM 31N57W TO THE SE BAHAMAS
ON SAT. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT WASHES OUT N OF PUERTO RICO ON
SAT...WHILE THE THE NORTHERN SEGMENT PASSES E THROUGH THE WATERS
BETWEEN 65-55W ON SUN. THE BIG CHANGE IS THE POST-FRONTAL NW
FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT N OF 29N WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE
FRONT ON FRI AND SAT WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT.

THE SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE
BAHAMAS ON SAT...FURTHER INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 30N EITHER
SIDE OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE NE FL COAST ON SAT EVENING.
THE EXTENT OF THE 20-25 KT FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WILL SHIFT S TO
ALONG 27N ON SUN. THIS STRONGER FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO
THE NW BAHAMAS LATE SUN. LITTLE CONFIDENCE ATTM SO EXPECT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LAST FRONT IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 221735
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
135 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED
WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SLIGHT HINT OF AGRICULTURE SMOKE INDICATED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY
ACROSS THE SW GULF ON TUE...BUT AVAILABLE SURFACE OBS ALONG
MEXICAN COAST ONLY REPORTING 6 SM IN HAZE...SO INTRODUCED LOCAL
VSBY 3 SM SMOKE/HAZE 1ST PERIOD ACROSS E BAY OF CAMPECHE.
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM FORT MYERSFLORIDA TO
26N91W WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT W OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH NIGHT WILL MOVE W NW
ACROSS THE SW WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND
DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WINDS 15 KT OR LESS...EXCEPT
15-20 KT ACROSS THE S CENTRAL GULF FRI AND SAT AND ACROSS THE E
BAY OF CAMPECHE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED
WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW
COLOMBIA...WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA
TONIGHT...THEN THE AFFECTED AREA SHOULD SHRINK THU NIGHT. E-SE
TRADES 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT
OR LESS THU. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE
NEXT ROUND OF NNE SWELL WILL REACH 19N55W TONIGHT DRIVING THE
COMBINED SEAS UP TO 8 FT BY MIDDAY THU...WITH THESE CONDITIONS
REACHING NEAR THE E CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THU EVENING...AND
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY FRI...THEN SUBSIDING FROM THE N ON FRI
NIGHT AND SAT.

 ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. MWW3 BLENDED
WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO 27N72W THEN
BECOMES STATIONARY TO SE FLORIDA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OF
THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES THROUGH
THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE
THU...REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE FRI AND
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE FRI NIGHT AND SAT. A THIRD
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST LATE SAT AND EXTEND FROM
BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON SUN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 220509
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
109 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SLIGHT HINT OF AGRICULTURE SMOKE INDICATED ON LAST VISIBLE
IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW GULF ON TUE...BUT AVAILABLE SURFACE OBS
ALONG MEXICAN COAST ONLY REPORTING 6 SM IN HAZE...SO INTRODUCED
LOCAL VSBY 3 SM SMOKE/HAZE 1ST PERIOD ACROSS E BAY OF CAMPECHE.
BROAD REMNANTS OF A FRONT EXTEND W FROM CENTRAL FL TO EXTREME S
TX. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO LIFT N AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA/ISOL TS. EXPECT THE LOCALIZED
EVENING THERMAL ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EACH EVENING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 20-25 KT EVENT ON FRI
EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUN EVENING. THESE E-SE PULSES WILL
PROPAGATE WNW ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE MORNING
DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH THE TROUGH LOSING IDENTITY BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOONS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS 15-20 KT ENHANCEMENT
WILL REACH NEAR 26N94W. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE
THE GULF WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SE GULF ON FRI
AND SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS SAT
NIGHT AND PASS ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL AND NE WATERS ON SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW
COLOMBIA...WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 210 NM OF THE
NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT...THEN THE AFFECTED AREA SHOULD
SHRINK TO WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST ON EACH NIGHT
STARTING ON THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
ONLY A 15-20 KT EVENT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST ON SUN NIGHT. E-SE
TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS
EACH NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT ROUND OF NNE SWELL WILL REACH
19N55W TONIGHT DRIVING THE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 8 FT BY MIDDAY
THU...WITH THESE CONDITIONS REACHING NEAR THE E CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES THU EVENING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY FRI...THEN
SUBSIDING FROM THE N ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

 ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB
NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS MOSTLY ECMWF WITH
MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA. MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN LOW CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO SE FL AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY
SCT SHRA/ISOL TS. THE FRONTAL SEGMENT N OF OF 26N WILL CONTINUE
E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W ON THU FINALLY
STALLING NEAR 28N58W. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
THU. N SWELLS...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT...HAVE PROPAGATED S
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 26N E OF 60W. THESE SWELLS
WILL CONTINUE S REACHING THE TROPICAL WATERS TONIGHT...THEN
SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON THU WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY THU EVENING. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR 29N75W THIS EVENING...AND SHIFT
ENE PASSING S OF BERMUDA LATE THU LEAVING A WEAK RIDGE W TO NE
FL. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY RETRACT E LATE THU ALLOWING A SECOND
COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST...AND REACH FROM BERMUDA
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE FRI...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 10-
15 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N. THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE PARENT LOW
N OF THE AREA. A BLEND OF THIS GUIDANCE IS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THIS FRONT AND NOW MOVES IT TO A LINE FROM 31N62W TO THE SE
BAHAMAS ON FRI NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT WASHES OUT N OF
PUERTO RICO ON SAT...WHILE THE THE NORTHERN SEGMENT PASSES E
THROUGH THE WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W. THE SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY SAT...FURTHER
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 30N EITHER SIDE OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHING OFF THE NE FL COAST SAT AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF THE 20-
25 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 28N ON
SAT NIGHT. THIS STRONGER FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW
BAHAMAS ON SUN. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS LAST FRONT IN FUTURE
MODEL RUNS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 220509
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
109 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SLIGHT HINT OF AGRICULTURE SMOKE INDICATED ON LAST VISIBLE
IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW GULF ON TUE...BUT AVAILABLE SURFACE OBS
ALONG MEXICAN COAST ONLY REPORTING 6 SM IN HAZE...SO INTRODUCED
LOCAL VSBY 3 SM SMOKE/HAZE 1ST PERIOD ACROSS E BAY OF CAMPECHE.
BROAD REMNANTS OF A FRONT EXTEND W FROM CENTRAL FL TO EXTREME S
TX. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO LIFT N AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA/ISOL TS. EXPECT THE LOCALIZED
EVENING THERMAL ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EACH EVENING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 20-25 KT EVENT ON FRI
EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUN EVENING. THESE E-SE PULSES WILL
PROPAGATE WNW ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE MORNING
DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH THE TROUGH LOSING IDENTITY BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOONS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS 15-20 KT ENHANCEMENT
WILL REACH NEAR 26N94W. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE
THE GULF WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SE GULF ON FRI
AND SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS SAT
NIGHT AND PASS ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL AND NE WATERS ON SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW
COLOMBIA...WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 210 NM OF THE
NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT...THEN THE AFFECTED AREA SHOULD
SHRINK TO WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST ON EACH NIGHT
STARTING ON THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
ONLY A 15-20 KT EVENT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST ON SUN NIGHT. E-SE
TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS
EACH NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT ROUND OF NNE SWELL WILL REACH
19N55W TONIGHT DRIVING THE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 8 FT BY MIDDAY
THU...WITH THESE CONDITIONS REACHING NEAR THE E CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES THU EVENING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY FRI...THEN
SUBSIDING FROM THE N ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

 ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB
NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS MOSTLY ECMWF WITH
MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA. MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN LOW CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO SE FL AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY
SCT SHRA/ISOL TS. THE FRONTAL SEGMENT N OF OF 26N WILL CONTINUE
E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W ON THU FINALLY
STALLING NEAR 28N58W. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
THU. N SWELLS...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT...HAVE PROPAGATED S
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 26N E OF 60W. THESE SWELLS
WILL CONTINUE S REACHING THE TROPICAL WATERS TONIGHT...THEN
SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON THU WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY THU EVENING. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR 29N75W THIS EVENING...AND SHIFT
ENE PASSING S OF BERMUDA LATE THU LEAVING A WEAK RIDGE W TO NE
FL. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY RETRACT E LATE THU ALLOWING A SECOND
COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST...AND REACH FROM BERMUDA
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE FRI...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 10-
15 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N. THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE PARENT LOW
N OF THE AREA. A BLEND OF THIS GUIDANCE IS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THIS FRONT AND NOW MOVES IT TO A LINE FROM 31N62W TO THE SE
BAHAMAS ON FRI NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT WASHES OUT N OF
PUERTO RICO ON SAT...WHILE THE THE NORTHERN SEGMENT PASSES E
THROUGH THE WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W. THE SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY SAT...FURTHER
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 30N EITHER SIDE OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHING OFF THE NE FL COAST SAT AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF THE 20-
25 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 28N ON
SAT NIGHT. THIS STRONGER FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW
BAHAMAS ON SUN. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS LAST FRONT IN FUTURE
MODEL RUNS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 220509
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
109 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SLIGHT HINT OF AGRICULTURE SMOKE INDICATED ON LAST VISIBLE
IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW GULF ON TUE...BUT AVAILABLE SURFACE OBS
ALONG MEXICAN COAST ONLY REPORTING 6 SM IN HAZE...SO INTRODUCED
LOCAL VSBY 3 SM SMOKE/HAZE 1ST PERIOD ACROSS E BAY OF CAMPECHE.
BROAD REMNANTS OF A FRONT EXTEND W FROM CENTRAL FL TO EXTREME S
TX. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO LIFT N AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA/ISOL TS. EXPECT THE LOCALIZED
EVENING THERMAL ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EACH EVENING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 20-25 KT EVENT ON FRI
EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUN EVENING. THESE E-SE PULSES WILL
PROPAGATE WNW ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE MORNING
DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH THE TROUGH LOSING IDENTITY BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOONS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS 15-20 KT ENHANCEMENT
WILL REACH NEAR 26N94W. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE
THE GULF WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SE GULF ON FRI
AND SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS SAT
NIGHT AND PASS ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL AND NE WATERS ON SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW
COLOMBIA...WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 210 NM OF THE
NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT...THEN THE AFFECTED AREA SHOULD
SHRINK TO WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST ON EACH NIGHT
STARTING ON THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
ONLY A 15-20 KT EVENT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST ON SUN NIGHT. E-SE
TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS
EACH NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT ROUND OF NNE SWELL WILL REACH
19N55W TONIGHT DRIVING THE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 8 FT BY MIDDAY
THU...WITH THESE CONDITIONS REACHING NEAR THE E CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES THU EVENING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY FRI...THEN
SUBSIDING FROM THE N ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

 ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB
NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS MOSTLY ECMWF WITH
MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA. MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN LOW CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO SE FL AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY
SCT SHRA/ISOL TS. THE FRONTAL SEGMENT N OF OF 26N WILL CONTINUE
E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W ON THU FINALLY
STALLING NEAR 28N58W. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
THU. N SWELLS...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT...HAVE PROPAGATED S
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 26N E OF 60W. THESE SWELLS
WILL CONTINUE S REACHING THE TROPICAL WATERS TONIGHT...THEN
SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON THU WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY THU EVENING. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR 29N75W THIS EVENING...AND SHIFT
ENE PASSING S OF BERMUDA LATE THU LEAVING A WEAK RIDGE W TO NE
FL. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY RETRACT E LATE THU ALLOWING A SECOND
COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST...AND REACH FROM BERMUDA
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE FRI...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 10-
15 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N. THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE PARENT LOW
N OF THE AREA. A BLEND OF THIS GUIDANCE IS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THIS FRONT AND NOW MOVES IT TO A LINE FROM 31N62W TO THE SE
BAHAMAS ON FRI NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT WASHES OUT N OF
PUERTO RICO ON SAT...WHILE THE THE NORTHERN SEGMENT PASSES E
THROUGH THE WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W. THE SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY SAT...FURTHER
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 30N EITHER SIDE OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHING OFF THE NE FL COAST SAT AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF THE 20-
25 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 28N ON
SAT NIGHT. THIS STRONGER FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW
BAHAMAS ON SUN. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS LAST FRONT IN FUTURE
MODEL RUNS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 220509
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
109 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SLIGHT HINT OF AGRICULTURE SMOKE INDICATED ON LAST VISIBLE
IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW GULF ON TUE...BUT AVAILABLE SURFACE OBS
ALONG MEXICAN COAST ONLY REPORTING 6 SM IN HAZE...SO INTRODUCED
LOCAL VSBY 3 SM SMOKE/HAZE 1ST PERIOD ACROSS E BAY OF CAMPECHE.
BROAD REMNANTS OF A FRONT EXTEND W FROM CENTRAL FL TO EXTREME S
TX. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO LIFT N AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY SCT SHRA/ISOL TS. EXPECT THE LOCALIZED
EVENING THERMAL ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE EACH EVENING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 20-25 KT EVENT ON FRI
EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUN EVENING. THESE E-SE PULSES WILL
PROPAGATE WNW ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE MORNING
DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH THE TROUGH LOSING IDENTITY BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOONS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS 15-20 KT ENHANCEMENT
WILL REACH NEAR 26N94W. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE
THE GULF WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SE GULF ON FRI
AND SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS SAT
NIGHT AND PASS ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL AND NE WATERS ON SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL. TAFB NWPS BLENDED INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGING N OF THE AREA...COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NW
COLOMBIA...WILL SUPPORT 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 210 NM OF THE
NW COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT...THEN THE AFFECTED AREA SHOULD
SHRINK TO WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST ON EACH NIGHT
STARTING ON THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
ONLY A 15-20 KT EVENT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST ON SUN NIGHT. E-SE
TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS
EACH NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE NEXT ROUND OF NNE SWELL WILL REACH
19N55W TONIGHT DRIVING THE COMBINED SEAS UP TO 8 FT BY MIDDAY
THU...WITH THESE CONDITIONS REACHING NEAR THE E CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES THU EVENING...AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY FRI...THEN
SUBSIDING FROM THE N ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT.

 ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS TAFB
NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WHICH WAS MOSTLY ECMWF WITH
MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA. MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN LOW CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO SE FL AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY
SCT SHRA/ISOL TS. THE FRONTAL SEGMENT N OF OF 26N WILL CONTINUE
E ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W ON THU FINALLY
STALLING NEAR 28N58W. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL
STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
THU. N SWELLS...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT...HAVE PROPAGATED S
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 26N E OF 60W. THESE SWELLS
WILL CONTINUE S REACHING THE TROPICAL WATERS TONIGHT...THEN
SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON THU WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT BY THU EVENING. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR 29N75W THIS EVENING...AND SHIFT
ENE PASSING S OF BERMUDA LATE THU LEAVING A WEAK RIDGE W TO NE
FL. THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY RETRACT E LATE THU ALLOWING A SECOND
COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST...AND REACH FROM BERMUDA
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE FRI...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 10-
15 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 30N. THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE PARENT LOW
N OF THE AREA. A BLEND OF THIS GUIDANCE IS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THIS FRONT AND NOW MOVES IT TO A LINE FROM 31N62W TO THE SE
BAHAMAS ON FRI NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT WASHES OUT N OF
PUERTO RICO ON SAT...WHILE THE THE NORTHERN SEGMENT PASSES E
THROUGH THE WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W. THE SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TO
15-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS EARLY SAT...FURTHER
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 30N EITHER SIDE OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHING OFF THE NE FL COAST SAT AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF THE 20-
25 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 28N ON
SAT NIGHT. THIS STRONGER FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE NW
BAHAMAS ON SUN. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS LAST FRONT IN FUTURE
MODEL RUNS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





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