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000
AGXX40 KNHC 301738
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
138 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO S TEXAS. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL EXCEPT OVER THE SE
GULF WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT
RANGE EXCEPT IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE SW GULF. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SE...EVENTUALLY MOVING SE OF THE
AREA EARLY SAT. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE FRI AND QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS...AND SE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY SUN. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE UNITED STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE
SECOND FRONT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE
FRI BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO COVER THE
EASTERN GULF WATERS SAT NIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH EARLY
SUN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE UNITED STATES THIS
WEEKEND...SE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY
EARLY SUN AND PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...3-4 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 3-5 FT OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ARE IN
THE 4-6 FT RANGE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN FRI THEN W OF THE AREA SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE FRI. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL
CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT AFTERNOON WHERE ITS FORWARD
PROGRESS WILL SLOW. A SECOND FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW MOVING
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SAT. THE SECOND FRONT WILL CATCH UP
WILL THE INITIAL SLOWED FRONT EARLY SUN AND THE MERGED FRONTS WILL
SHIFT E AND STALL FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS BY EARLY MON AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY TUE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS ROUGHLY ALONG 70W. A COLD FRONT HAS JUST
MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE
LOW...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH...AND LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER
THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW...4-6 FT E OF THE TROUGH...2-4 FT W OF
THE TROUGH OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE
FRI. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BEFORE INCREASING ITS FORWARD MOTION TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N72W TO
CENTRAL CUBA EARLY SAT THEN FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA EARLY SUN. A
SECOND STRONGER FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY SAT.
THIS FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT E AND MERGE WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONT
SUN AFTERNOON. THE MERGED FRONT WILL STALL FROM NEAR 25N65W TO E
CUBA BY MON MORNING WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE.
THE SECOND FRONT WILL USHER IN GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE TWO
FARTHEST NW ZONES BY SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GALE CONDITIONS
SHIFT N OF THE AREA EARLY SUN. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN A SET
OF NW SWELLS WITH SEAS PEAKING NEAR 18 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 301738
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
138 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO S TEXAS. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL EXCEPT OVER THE SE
GULF WHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED. SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT
RANGE EXCEPT IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE SW GULF. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY SE...EVENTUALLY MOVING SE OF THE
AREA EARLY SAT. A SECOND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATE FRI AND QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS...AND SE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY SUN. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE UNITED STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE
SECOND FRONT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE
FRI BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD TO COVER THE
EASTERN GULF WATERS SAT NIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH EARLY
SUN. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SE UNITED STATES THIS
WEEKEND...SE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY
EARLY SUN AND PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...3-4 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 3-5 FT OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ARE IN
THE 4-6 FT RANGE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN FRI THEN W OF THE AREA SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE FRI. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL
CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT AFTERNOON WHERE ITS FORWARD
PROGRESS WILL SLOW. A SECOND FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW MOVING
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SAT. THE SECOND FRONT WILL CATCH UP
WILL THE INITIAL SLOWED FRONT EARLY SUN AND THE MERGED FRONTS WILL
SHIFT E AND STALL FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS BY EARLY MON AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY TUE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS
USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS ROUGHLY ALONG 70W. A COLD FRONT HAS JUST
MOVED INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE
LOW...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH...AND LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER
THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW...4-6 FT E OF THE TROUGH...2-4 FT W OF
THE TROUGH OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE
FRI. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BEFORE INCREASING ITS FORWARD MOTION TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N72W TO
CENTRAL CUBA EARLY SAT THEN FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA EARLY SUN. A
SECOND STRONGER FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE NW WATERS EARLY SAT.
THIS FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT E AND MERGE WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONT
SUN AFTERNOON. THE MERGED FRONT WILL STALL FROM NEAR 25N65W TO E
CUBA BY MON MORNING WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE.
THE SECOND FRONT WILL USHER IN GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE TWO
FARTHEST NW ZONES BY SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GALE CONDITIONS
SHIFT N OF THE AREA EARLY SUN. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN A SET
OF NW SWELLS WITH SEAS PEAKING NEAR 18 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 300513
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
113 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE NE GULF AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A NE-E-SE 5-10 KT WIND
SHIFT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE TX
COASTAL BEND WILL OVER TAKE THE TROUGH TODAY WITH THE FRONT
REACHING FROM SW FL TO 24N86W THIS EVENING. A STRONGER AND DRIER
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL GULF WATERS FRI
EVENING...AND CONTINUE SE OF THE GULF EARLY EARLY SAT NIGHT. THE
ARRAY OF GUIDANCE HAS COME IN CLOSE AGREEMENT OF THE NLY FLOW
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT MORNING ACROSS THE THE N-CENTRAL AND NE WATERS...THEN
DIMINISHING TO N-NE 15-20 ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF ON SAT
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING 10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW TO SET UP
ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS AS EARLY AS LATE SAT NIGHT...WITH
THESE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SPREADING E ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF BY SUN EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN
SUPPORTING SE 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE NE COAST OF MEXICO AND
THE SE TX COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO LATE MON NIGHT. THE DIURNAL
NE 15-20 KT FLOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON BOTH SUN AND MON EVENINGS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS BECOMING
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE
ANALYSIS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 19N64W
HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR
15.5N66W...BUT IS ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A NE-E-SE 5-10 KT WIND
SHIFT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W-NW PASSING JUST N OF
PUERTO RICO TODAY AND PASSING JUST N OF HISPANIOLA ON FRI WHILE
DRAGGING THE TROUGH W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 16N.
THEREAFTER THE ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE THE N-
NE 5-10 KT FLOW WILL BE REINFORCED BEGINNING LATE FRI NIGHT BY A
STRONG DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL INCREASE THE N FLOW TO 15-20 KT
ACROSS THE YUCATAN BASIN. EXPECT THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W TO
BE EXPERIENCING NE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE SUN. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 67W
FROM SUN NIGHT TO MON NIGHT WITH EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 25 KT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A FRONTAL TROUGH IS WASHING OUT ALONG 26N BETWEEN 55-65W. A 1009
MB LOW PRES IS NEAR 19N64W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING N TO 23N66W
WITH E-SE 20-25 KT/SEAS 8-12 FT WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE TROUGH
AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE W-NW PASSING JUST N OF PUERTO RICO TODAY AND PASSING
JUST N OF HISPANIOLA ON FRI.

A NE-SW RIDGE FROM 31N70W TO PORT CANAVERAL IS SHIFTING SE
IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH MOVING OFF THE SE GA
COAST AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY SE ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE SE GA COAST ON FRI INITIALLY
ACCOMPANIED BY NW 15 KT WINDS WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONT E
MERGING WITH WHATEVER REMAINS OF ALL THE PREVIOUS BOUNDARIES...
WITH A SINGLE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO SE FL AT SUNSET FRI.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE THE NLY FLOW TO 20-30 KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-11 FT BEHIND THE FRONT DURING FRI NIGHT
WITH 30-35 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 17 FT DEVELOPING NEAR 31N76W
LATE SAT MORNING. NOTING THAT ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS AGAIN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODEL...OTHER GUIDANCE HAS ALSO PICKED UP ON THE
INCREASING CAA AND SUGGEST GALE CONDITIONS AS WELL. EXPECT THE
AREA OF GALE WINDS TO SHIFT N OF 31N ON SUN EVENING. WILL MOVE
THE FRONT TO PSN FROM 31N72W TO 23N80W LATE SAT...FROM 31N68W TO
21N76W EARLY SUN...THROUGH BERMUDA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY
SUN EVENING...WITH THE FRONT STALLING FROM 28N65W TO PUERTO RICO
LATE MON.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 291758
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
158 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF. THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE E LATER TODAY AND QUICKLY BE OVERTAKEN BY A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT WILL REACH FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO NEAR 25N86W AT
SUNRISE ON THU. A STRONGER AND DRIER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
THE N-CENTRAL AND NE GULF WATERS FRI NIGHT...AND CONTINUE SE OF
THE GULF EARLY SAT NIGHT. NLY WIND INCREASE NW OF THE FRONT. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE ON SUN WITH 15-20 KT E-SE RETURN
FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE W
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON WED AND THU AND LOSE IDENTITY
IN THE W CARIBBEAN ON FRI. WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 20N62W WILL MOVE TO
NEAR 19N65W TONIGHT...NEAR 20N67W THU NIGHT AND NEAR 20N69W FRI
NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI NIGHT...REACH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE
NICARAGUA ON SAT NIGHT...REACH FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NW COSTA
RICA ON SUN NIGHT WITH FRESH N WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN IN ITS WAKE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVES. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 20N62W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 19N65W TONIGHT...NEAR
20N67W THU NIGHT...NEAR 20N69W FRI NIGHT AND NEAR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ON SAT NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE OFF
THE SE GEORGIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND ON THU MORNING AND MOVE
SLOWLY SE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GEORGIA
COAST ON ON FRI MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONTS ON FRI NIGHT. THE
MERGED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N72W TO TO E CUBA EARLY SAT
AND FROM 31N62W TO THE MONA PASSAGE EARLY ON SUN. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME A SHEAR AXIS TO THE N OF PUERTO RICO ON SUN NIGHT. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 290525
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
125 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF AS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY A NE-E-SE 5-10 KT WIND
SHIFT. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT E TODAY TO OVER THE NE WATERS AND
QUICKLY BE OVERTAKEN BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH FROM
THE FL BIG BEND TO NEAR 25N86W AT SUNRISE ON THU. A STRONGER AND
DRIER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL AND NE GULF
WATERS FRI NIGHT...AND CONTINUE SE OF THE GULF EARLY SAT NIGHT.
THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ON THE POST-FRONTAL NLY
WINDS...AND BLENDING WITH ECMWF YIELDS N-NE 15-20 KT FLOW ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF ON SAT...BECOMING E-SE 15 KT RETURN FLOW OVER
THE NW WATERS ON SAT NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE
ON SUN WITH 15-20 KT E-SE RETURN FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
GULF...EXCEPT THE DIURNAL NE 15-20 KT FLOW EXPECTED ALONG THE NW
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON BOTH SAT AND SUN EVENINGS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE VERY WEAK REMNANT LOW AND TROUGH FROM TS HANNA WILL MOVE W
OVER BELIZE AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ELY
TODAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DENOTED IN TODAYS WEATHER
GRIDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND IS MOVING W IN PHASE
WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE NOW FILLING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AT
16N66W. SUBSIDENCE W OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. EXPECT THE WAVE TO CONTINUE W PASSING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND WED...AND LIKELY LOSE
IDENTITY IN THE W CARIBBEAN ON FRI AS HAS THE PREVIOUS FEW
TROPICAL WAVES. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE PREVIOUSLY
ANALYZED AS A TROUGH IS NOW ANALYZED AS AN ILL-DEFINED 1010 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR 19N62W THAT DOES HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS
ENHANCING CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS NE OF
THE LEEWARDS...WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OVER THE LEEWARDS AS WELL.
THE WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W-NW REACHING A POSITION
JUST N OF PUERTO RICO EARLY TODAY WITH ONLY A NE-E-SE 5-10 KT
WIND SHIFT EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE CARIBBEAN TO THE N OF 18N
AS THE LOW/TROUGH CONTINUES W AND PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AREA ON FRI NIGHT. BY THEN A STRONG DRY COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE NICARAGUA ON SAT NIGHT... AND FROM THE
MONA PASSAGE TO NW COSTA RICA ON SUN NIGHT. NE 15-20 KT FLOW
WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ON SAT NIGHT... AND INCREASE
TO 20 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN W OF 68W ON SUN NIGHT WITH
EMBEDDED PATCHES OF 25 KT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM 26N55W TO 24N65W TO N-CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. THE SHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT TODAY. THE
NORTHERN SEGMENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED AS AN ILL-
DEFINED 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 19N62W WITHIN POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
ENHANCING CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS NE OF
THE LEEWARDS WITHIN 180 NM OF 20N59W. THIS WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE W-NW REACHING A POSITION JUST N OF PUERTO RICO EARLY
TODAY THEN OPEN INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE NW
REACHING THE TURKS AND CAICOS AREA ON FRI NIGHT. IN THE MEAN
TIME...EXPECT A BAND OF E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS TO ACCOMPANY A
TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

A NE-SW RIDGE TO NE FL COAST IS SHIFTING SE ATTM IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH MOVING OFF THE SE GA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE SE GA
COAST ON THU MORNING AND CONTINUE SLOWLY SE ACCOMPNAIED BY ONLY
A 5-10 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE SE GA COAST ON ON FRI INITIALLY ACCOMPANIED BY NW 15 KT
WINDS WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONT E MERGING WITH WHATEVER REMAINS
OF ALL THE PREVIOUS BOUNDARIES...WITH A SINGLE FRONT EXTENDING
FROM 31N72W TO TO E CUBA AT SUNRISE SAT. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL INCREASE THE NLY FLOW TO 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. NOTING
THAT THE GFS IS AGAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL...AND HINTS AT A
STRONG GALE ON SAT EVENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES A BLEND
OF MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF AND WILL MOVE THE FRONT TO A PSN
FROM 31N62W TO THE MONA PASSAGE AT SUNRISE ON SUN...WITH THE
FRONT CONTINUING E ON SUN ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N...BUT
QUICKLY BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS TO THE N OF PUERTO RICO.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 281910
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
310 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO
THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF ON WED AND WEAKEN TO A N TO S
ORIENTATED TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS ON WED NIGHT INTO
THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF ON FRI AND SAT
RESULTING IN FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS EXCEPT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP ACROSS THE NW GULF ON SAT NIGHT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

THE REMNANT TROUGH OF TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA WILL SHIFT W ACROSS
THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON WED AND THU AND
LOSE IDENTITY IN THE W CARIBBEAN ON FRI AND SAT. A SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARDS WILL CONTINUE W
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON THU AND FRI...AND THROUGH THE W
CARIBBEAN ON SAT. THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THIS SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS AND THE LEEWARDS
TODAY.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N65W TO 27N71W WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.
THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W-NW ACROSS
THE WATERS NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY AND WED...PASS W THROUGH
THE WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO ON WED NIGHT AND THU...AND WEAKEN NEAR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS AREA ON FRI. A NE TO SW RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR
NW WATERS WILL SHIFT SE TONIGHT ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTER
THE AREA NEAR 31N75W...AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH ALONG 75W ON WED
NIGHT AND THU. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS ON THU
NIGHT...REACH FROM 31N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON FRI
NIGHT...AND FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SAT NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER DGS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 280530
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FROM WED-SAT. NWPS USED FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING OF FRONTS.

AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO
S-CENTRAL LA. SLY 10-15 KT FLOW CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WATERS WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT TONIGHT...AND THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WED AROUND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BRIEFLY FROM 27N94W TO 29N92W ON WED. THIS
TROUGH IS LIKELY THE MODELS DEPICTING THE WEAK WESTERN SEGMENT
OF A FRONT THAT WILL PASS INITIALLY THROUGH ONLY THE NE GULF.
THE LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO 5-10 KT FROM THE N-NE ON
WED NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME NE AT 10-15 KT ON THU AND
FRI...THEN GRADUALLY CLOCK TO THE E AT 15 KT ON SAT...EXCEPT
BECOMING AN E-SE 15 KT RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW WATERS ON SAT
NIGHT.

ELY 15 KT FLOW CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE FL STRAITS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE GULF ON WED...AND STALL
BRIEFLY ALONG ABOUT 25N E OF 90W THU...WITH WINDS BECOMING NE AT
10 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS E OF 90W ON THU AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY DRY SURGE ON THU NIGHT WILL INCREASE THE N-NE FLOW TO
10-15 KT ON FRI...AND 15-20 KT ON FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FROM THU-SAT. NWPS USED FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND IS MOVING W IN PHASE
WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AT 15N64W. SUBSIDENCE W
OF THE CYCLONE IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THIS WAVE. EXPECT
THE WAVE TO CONTINUE W PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON
WED-THU...AND LIKELY LOSE IDENTITY IN THE W CARIBBEAN ON FRI-
SAT. UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER CYCLONE IS ENHANCING
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARDS AND WINDWARDS AND
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WITH A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE JUST
NOW ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN. THE LOW LEVEL WAVE AND UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WILL STAY IN PHASE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY AS THE
SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE WAVE CONTINUES W THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ON THU-FRI...AND THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN ON SAT. THE
NORTHERN SEGMENT OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SEPARATE
LEAVING A TROUGH THAT CONTINUE NW INTO THE ATLC WATERS ON WED.
EXPECTING E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT TO SPREAD NW
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF THE LEEWARDS TODAY...WITH
THESE CONDITIONS SHIFTING N OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.

A WEAK REMNANT TROUGH FROM TS HANNA WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE GULF
OF HONDURAS TODAY WITH A NE-E-SE 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT DENOTED IN
THE GRIDS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR THU-SAT. NWPS USED FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 26N63W THEN BECOMES A SHEAR
AXIS TO HISPANIOLA. THE SHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT TODAY
WHILE THE NORTHERN SEGMENT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 27N55W TO
24N65W TODAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATES THROUGH WED NIGHT.

THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL MOVE NW ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS NE OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY AND WED...AND PASS W THOUGH THE WATERS N OF
PUERTO RICO LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. EXPECT ESE 20-25 KT WINDS
MAINLY E OF TROUGH AXIS. WEAK REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH WILL REACH
THE TURKS AND CAICOS AREA ON FRI NIGHT.

A NE-SW RIDGE TO EXTREME NE FL COAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SE LATE
TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH DIPS INTO THE FAR NW
WATERS NEAR 31N75W. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY S TO THE NW
BAHAMAS BY THU NIGHT AS AN INVERTED TROUGH. A RE-ENFORCING NW
SURGE ON FRI WILL MOVE THE TROUGH E AS A COLD FRONT WITH NLY 15-
20 KT WINDS SPREADING S ACROSS THE THE AREA N OF 25N W OF THE
FRONT BY EARLY SAT. THE FRONT WILL REACH A LINE FROM BERMUDA TO
HISPANIOLA ON SAT NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





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