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000
AGXX40 KNHC 011811
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
211 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ABOUT
260 NM E-SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MOVING W-NW AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS LOW
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS SE MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AND THE LOW PRES COULD DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TUE AS IT MOVES W-NW ACROSS
THE SW GULF THROUGH TUE BEFORE IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR TAMPICO TUE NIGHT OR WED. MARINE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS DEVELOPING OVER THE W
CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BETWEEN THE
LOW PRES AND RIDGING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF.
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAS A LOW PRES WITH WINDS OF 25-30 KT MOVING
ACROSS ZONES AMZ025 FIRST THEN ACROSS AMZ023 DURING THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT TO THE NE OF THE LOW CENTER.
INTERESTS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE SINCE WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD
SOON BE REQUIRED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE W
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE 1512 ASCAT PASS SHOWED SE
WINDS OF 25-30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF MANLY S OF 24N.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY THU.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-25 KT SE WINDS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY S OF 21N W OF 85W...INCLUDING
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THESE WINDS ARE BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE NE
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND
THE LOW PRES SHIFT FARTHER WEST. LOCAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO INDICATED 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS TO 9 FT PER AN ALTIMETER PASS.
THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRES N OF THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
ALONG 68W/69W. THIS RATHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE TUE...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE WED AND OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. WINDS TO 25 KT ARE
STILL LIKELY OFF COLOMBIA...BUT 15 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE WITH SEAS TO
8 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS AND OFF HISPANIOLA.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 24N71W CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY S OF 27N...INCLUDING THE
BAHAMAS. A WEAK TROUGH...LIKELY A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS
LOW...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT...AND THE NW BAHAMAS WED BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS S FLORIDA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 011811
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
211 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ABOUT
260 NM E-SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MOVING W-NW AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS LOW
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS SE MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AND THE LOW PRES COULD DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TUE AS IT MOVES W-NW ACROSS
THE SW GULF THROUGH TUE BEFORE IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR TAMPICO TUE NIGHT OR WED. MARINE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
FRESH TO STRONG E-SE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS DEVELOPING OVER THE W
CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BETWEEN THE
LOW PRES AND RIDGING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF.
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAS A LOW PRES WITH WINDS OF 25-30 KT MOVING
ACROSS ZONES AMZ025 FIRST THEN ACROSS AMZ023 DURING THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT TO THE NE OF THE LOW CENTER.
INTERESTS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE SINCE WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD
SOON BE REQUIRED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE W
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE 1512 ASCAT PASS SHOWED SE
WINDS OF 25-30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF MANLY S OF 24N.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY THU.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-25 KT SE WINDS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY S OF 21N W OF 85W...INCLUDING
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THESE WINDS ARE BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE NE
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND
THE LOW PRES SHIFT FARTHER WEST. LOCAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO INDICATED 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS TO 9 FT PER AN ALTIMETER PASS.
THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRES N OF THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
ALONG 68W/69W. THIS RATHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE TUE...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE WED AND OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. WINDS TO 25 KT ARE
STILL LIKELY OFF COLOMBIA...BUT 15 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE WITH SEAS TO
8 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS AND OFF HISPANIOLA.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 24N71W CONTINUES TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY S OF 27N...INCLUDING THE
BAHAMAS. A WEAK TROUGH...LIKELY A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS
LOW...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT...AND THE NW BAHAMAS WED BEFORE MOVING
ACROSS S FLORIDA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 010706
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
306 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS STARTING
TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW IS
FORMING ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS YUCATAN AND INTO THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE DRIFT
SLOWLY WESTWARD TODAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING TO
SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...UNTIL A TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTUALLY
FORMS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SE WINDS TO AT LEAST 25 KT IN THE
AREA N OF THE LOW PRES COVERING MUCH OF THE W CENTRAL GULF FROM
20N TO 26N W OF 90W FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT DURATION OF THE STRONG SE FLOW OVER A 350 NM FETCH SEAS
TO 12 FT ARE LIKELY OFF THE COAST OF TAMAULIPAS IN NE MEXICO BY
TUE NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WILL PERSIST
OVER MUCH OF THE SW GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. THE LOW PRES AND
ACCOMPANYING TROPICAL WAVE WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER VERACRUZ BY
EARLY WED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE W CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST ELSEWHERE AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY THU.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 0245 UTC INDICATED 25 TO 30 KT SE
WINDS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS
TO NORTHERN BELIZE. SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE W
OF 85W. THE STRONG SE WINDS ARE BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE NE AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES W OF THE AREA ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND THE LOW
SHIFT FARTHER WEST. LOCAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE ASCAT SATELLITE PASS ALSO INDICATED 25 TO 30 KT TRADE WINDS
OFF THE COAST OF NE COLOMBIA WITH 20 TO 25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE
REMAINING AREA OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND
80W. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA
INDICATED SEAS WERE 8 TO 10 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THESE WINDS
ARE IN PART LOCALLY ENHANCED DUE TO DRAINAGE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN
ALONG THIS COASTLINE...BUT ARE ALSO INFLUENCED BY A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL FOLLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. WINDS TO 25 KT ARE STILL
LIKELY OFF COLOMBIA...BUT 15 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
MWW3/NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH WATERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND OFF HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 25N71W
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY NE OF
THE SE BAHAMAS.

A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT
NIGHT...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT...AND THE NW
BAHAMAS WED BEFORE MOVING ACROSS S FLORIDA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 010706
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
306 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRES OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS STARTING
TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW IS
FORMING ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS YUCATAN AND INTO THE
SW GULF OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE DRIFT
SLOWLY WESTWARD TODAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING TO
SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...UNTIL A TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTUALLY
FORMS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR SE WINDS TO AT LEAST 25 KT IN THE
AREA N OF THE LOW PRES COVERING MUCH OF THE W CENTRAL GULF FROM
20N TO 26N W OF 90W FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT DURATION OF THE STRONG SE FLOW OVER A 350 NM FETCH SEAS
TO 12 FT ARE LIKELY OFF THE COAST OF TAMAULIPAS IN NE MEXICO BY
TUE NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WILL PERSIST
OVER MUCH OF THE SW GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. THE LOW PRES AND
ACCOMPANYING TROPICAL WAVE WILL SHIFT INLAND OVER VERACRUZ BY
EARLY WED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE W CENTRAL
GULF THROUGH WED NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST ELSEWHERE AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY THU.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 0245 UTC INDICATED 25 TO 30 KT SE
WINDS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS
TO NORTHERN BELIZE. SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE W
OF 85W. THE STRONG SE WINDS ARE BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE NE AND
DEVELOPING LOW PRES W OF THE AREA ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND THE LOW
SHIFT FARTHER WEST. LOCAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE ASCAT SATELLITE PASS ALSO INDICATED 25 TO 30 KT TRADE WINDS
OFF THE COAST OF NE COLOMBIA WITH 20 TO 25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE
REMAINING AREA OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND
80W. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA
INDICATED SEAS WERE 8 TO 10 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THESE WINDS
ARE IN PART LOCALLY ENHANCED DUE TO DRAINAGE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN
ALONG THIS COASTLINE...BUT ARE ALSO INFLUENCED BY A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL FOLLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. WINDS TO 25 KT ARE STILL
LIKELY OFF COLOMBIA...BUT 15 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
MWW3/NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH WATERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND OFF HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 25N71W
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY NE OF
THE SE BAHAMAS.

A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT
NIGHT...THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT...AND THE NW
BAHAMAS WED BEFORE MOVING ACROSS S FLORIDA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 311746
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
146 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK LOW PRES JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF BELIZE
NEAR 17.5N 87.5W THIS MORNING. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM TO
LAND WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT WHILE IT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THIS LOW PRES AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY MONDAY...WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FORECAST TRACK.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS SETTING UP BY LATE
MON FROM THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NE MEXICO...
BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH CMAN OBSERVATIONS IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS INDICATED EASTERLY WINDS TO AT LEAST 20 KT ACROSS THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS E OF 87W. THESE FRESH WINDS
ARE THE RESULT OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND RIDGING
EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BUOY
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS AROUND 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE GULF...BUT
MAY BE APPROACHING 7 FT IN THE FAR SE WATERS...WHERE FRESH E TO
SE WINDS CONTINUES TO BLOW.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COVER THE AREA S OF 21N W OF 83W. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER
NEAR THE TSTMS. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO MON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS
IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 84W...INCLUDING
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FT TONIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH ON MON...BUT AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY
MON EVENING. BUOY 42056 LOCATED NEAR 20N85W IS OCCASIONALLY
REPORTING 25 KT FROM THE SE WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT.

A WEAKER TROPICAL WAVE OVER IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG
64W/65W. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND THU
NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WILL PASS WEST
OF 55W TONIGHT...APPROACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE MON INTO
TUE...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 7-8 FT ARE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE TWO TROPICAL WAVES...EXCEPT
FOR STRONGER WINDS PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PER
THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. BUOY 42058 NEAR 15N75W IS
REPORTING SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH WATERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND OFF HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 25N71W
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY NE OF
THE SE BAHAMAS.

A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS MON AND MON NIGHT...
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT...AND THE NW BAHAMAS WED
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS S FLORIDA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 311746
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
146 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK LOW PRES JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF BELIZE
NEAR 17.5N 87.5W THIS MORNING. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM TO
LAND WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT WHILE IT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THIS LOW PRES AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BY MONDAY...WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL FORECAST TRACK.
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS SETTING UP BY LATE
MON FROM THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NE MEXICO...
BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH CMAN OBSERVATIONS IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS INDICATED EASTERLY WINDS TO AT LEAST 20 KT ACROSS THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA AND ADJACENT GULF WATERS E OF 87W. THESE FRESH WINDS
ARE THE RESULT OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND RIDGING
EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BUOY
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS AROUND 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE GULF...BUT
MAY BE APPROACHING 7 FT IN THE FAR SE WATERS...WHERE FRESH E TO
SE WINDS CONTINUES TO BLOW.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS
COVER THE AREA S OF 21N W OF 83W. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER
NEAR THE TSTMS. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO MON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS
IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 84W...INCLUDING
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 10 FT TONIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH ON MON...BUT AN AREA OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY
MON EVENING. BUOY 42056 LOCATED NEAR 20N85W IS OCCASIONALLY
REPORTING 25 KT FROM THE SE WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT.

A WEAKER TROPICAL WAVE OVER IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG
64W/65W. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND THU
NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC WILL PASS WEST
OF 55W TONIGHT...APPROACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE MON INTO
TUE...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 7-8 FT ARE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE TWO TROPICAL WAVES...EXCEPT
FOR STRONGER WINDS PULSE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PER
THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. BUOY 42058 NEAR 15N75W IS
REPORTING SEAS OF 8-9 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH WATERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND OFF HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 25N71W
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY NE OF
THE SE BAHAMAS.

A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS MON AND MON NIGHT...
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE AND TUE NIGHT...AND THE NW BAHAMAS WED
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS S FLORIDA WED NIGHT INTO THU.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 310722
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACTIVE
OVER THE FAR SE GULF TONIGHT. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH
CMAN OBSERVATIONS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS INDICATED EASTERLY WINDS TO
AT LEAST 20 KT WERE IN PLACE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT GULF WATERS E OF 87W. THIS IS IN AN AREA BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
RIDGING EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS AROUND 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE
GULF...BUT MAY BE APPROACHING 7 FT IN THE FAR SE WATERS.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE UPCOMING SEVERAL DAYS RELATES TO
THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND THAT WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF WATERS THROUGH
MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK LOW PRES WILL
FORM ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT NOT
DEEPEN APPRECIABLY AS IT REMAINS IN THE SW GULF WATERS THROUGH
THU. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER CONCERNING THE STATUS
OF THIS LOW PRES BY MID WEEK GIVEN LOCAL PROCESSES IN THE SW GULF
THAT ARE OFTEN NOT HANDLED WELL BY MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS SETTING UP BY TUE
FROM THE NW COAST OF YUCATAN TO NE MEXICO...BETWEEN THE LOW PRES
AND RIDGING N OF THE AREA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS FROM AROUND 0230 UTC INDICATED
TRADEWINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT PERSISTING OVER THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE NW ATLANTIC BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO YUCATAN
PENINSULA YESTERDAY. BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SEAS OF 8 TO 10
FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THE GFS INDICATES THAT THE FOCUS OF THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL SHIFT FARTHER WEST LATER TODAY...WITH 25 KT SE
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE EASTERN COAST OF
YUCATAN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL
BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT BY THIS EVENING. THE FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INCLUDE THE GULF OF HONDURAS
MON NIGHT. GIVEN LOCAL EFFECTS IN THIS PART OF THE CARIBBEAN...THE
STRONGER GFS SOLUTION SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE WEAKER ECMWF
AND UKMET.

A SECOND AND WEAKER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 57W IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CURRENTLY AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. A THIRD AND MORE
DEVELOPED TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS WEST OF 55W TONIGHT AND APPROACH
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE MON INTO TUE...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND
SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 7-8 FT ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE
TWO TROPICAL WAVES...EXCEPT FOR STRONGER WINDS PULSE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH WATERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND OFF HISPANIOLA.

SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IS NOTED OVER THE WATERS
FROM 22N TO 27N E OF 70W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N69W. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR
THE TSTMS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 310722
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACTIVE
OVER THE FAR SE GULF TONIGHT. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH
CMAN OBSERVATIONS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS INDICATED EASTERLY WINDS TO
AT LEAST 20 KT WERE IN PLACE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT GULF WATERS E OF 87W. THIS IS IN AN AREA BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
RIDGING EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEAS AROUND 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE
GULF...BUT MAY BE APPROACHING 7 FT IN THE FAR SE WATERS.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE UPCOMING SEVERAL DAYS RELATES TO
THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND THAT WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF WATERS THROUGH
MID WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK LOW PRES WILL
FORM ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT NOT
DEEPEN APPRECIABLY AS IT REMAINS IN THE SW GULF WATERS THROUGH
THU. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER CONCERNING THE STATUS
OF THIS LOW PRES BY MID WEEK GIVEN LOCAL PROCESSES IN THE SW GULF
THAT ARE OFTEN NOT HANDLED WELL BY MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS SETTING UP BY TUE
FROM THE NW COAST OF YUCATAN TO NE MEXICO...BETWEEN THE LOW PRES
AND RIDGING N OF THE AREA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS FROM AROUND 0230 UTC INDICATED
TRADEWINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT PERSISTING OVER THE S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE NW ATLANTIC BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO YUCATAN
PENINSULA YESTERDAY. BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SEAS OF 8 TO 10
FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THE GFS INDICATES THAT THE FOCUS OF THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL SHIFT FARTHER WEST LATER TODAY...WITH 25 KT SE
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE EASTERN COAST OF
YUCATAN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL
BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT BY THIS EVENING. THE FRESH TO STRONG SE FLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND INCLUDE THE GULF OF HONDURAS
MON NIGHT. GIVEN LOCAL EFFECTS IN THIS PART OF THE CARIBBEAN...THE
STRONGER GFS SOLUTION SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE WEAKER ECMWF
AND UKMET.

A SECOND AND WEAKER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 57W IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CURRENTLY AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. A THIRD AND MORE
DEVELOPED TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS WEST OF 55W TONIGHT AND APPROACH
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE MON INTO TUE...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND
SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 7-8 FT ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE
TWO TROPICAL WAVES...EXCEPT FOR STRONGER WINDS PULSE DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH WATERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND OFF HISPANIOLA.

SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IS NOTED OVER THE WATERS
FROM 22N TO 27N E OF 70W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N69W. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR
THE TSTMS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 301808
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
208 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF REGION PRODUCING GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE
REGION. RECENTLY...AN ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF LIKELY DUE TO THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
NW CARIBBEAN. A TROUGH LOCATED INLAND AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST
OF TEXAS IN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW GULF. THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE UPCOMING SEVERAL DAYS RELATES TO A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MON. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT A LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG THE TROPICAL
WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FAR SW GULF BY MON...WHERE IT WILL SLOW
AND DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF VERACRUZ THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS POSSIBLE LOW
PRES AREA A MEDIUM CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
THROUGH 5 DAYS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW MON THROUGH WED OVER THE W CENTRAL
GULF BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W WILL MOVE W OF
AREA TONIGHT INTO SUN. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHILE THE 1502
UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE AXIS...PARTICULARLY N OF 19N W OF 83W.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
TO THE WEST IN THE SW GULF ALONG THE EXITING TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 8 T0 10 FT W OF 85W BY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW PRES SHIFTS
WEST AND THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS.

A SECOND AND WEAKER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 57W IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY MON. A THIRD AND MORE DEVELOPED TROPICAL WAVE WILL
REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY ON MON AND MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND
SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 7-8 FT ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THESE TWO TROPICAL WAVES.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PER
THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. BUOY 42058 NEAR 15N75W IS
REPORTING SEAS OF 9-10 FT WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS
OF 7-8 FT S OF 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 11 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY OF SUN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH WATERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND OFF HISPANIOLA. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA
ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWED WINDS OF 20-25 KT S OF
22N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W.

SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IS NOTED OVER THE SE
WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
24N69W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE N WATERS...BUT
PARTICULARLY NEAR 27N AND JUST OFF NE FLORIDA. THE LATTER DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 80W. WINDS AND SEAS
COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 301808
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
208 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF REGION PRODUCING GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE
REGION. RECENTLY...AN ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF LIKELY DUE TO THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
NW CARIBBEAN. A TROUGH LOCATED INLAND AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST
OF TEXAS IN ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW GULF. THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE UPCOMING SEVERAL DAYS RELATES TO A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN AND SUN NIGHT...THEN
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MON. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT A LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG THE TROPICAL
WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FAR SW GULF BY MON...WHERE IT WILL SLOW
AND DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF VERACRUZ THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS POSSIBLE LOW
PRES AREA A MEDIUM CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
THROUGH 5 DAYS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW MON THROUGH WED OVER THE W CENTRAL
GULF BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 85W WILL MOVE W OF
AREA TONIGHT INTO SUN. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHILE THE 1502
UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE AXIS...PARTICULARLY N OF 19N W OF 83W.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO THE
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE AND THE ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
TO THE WEST IN THE SW GULF ALONG THE EXITING TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 8 T0 10 FT W OF 85W BY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW PRES SHIFTS
WEST AND THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS.

A SECOND AND WEAKER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 57W IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY MON. A THIRD AND MORE DEVELOPED TROPICAL WAVE WILL
REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY ON MON AND MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND
SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 7-8 FT ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THESE TWO TROPICAL WAVES.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PER
THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. BUOY 42058 NEAR 15N75W IS
REPORTING SEAS OF 9-10 FT WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS
OF 7-8 FT S OF 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 11 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY OF SUN.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT
WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW THROUGH MID
WEEK EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH WATERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND OFF HISPANIOLA. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA
ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWED WINDS OF 20-25 KT S OF
22N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W.

SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED TSTMS IS NOTED OVER THE SE
WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
24N69W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE N WATERS...BUT
PARTICULARLY NEAR 27N AND JUST OFF NE FLORIDA. THE LATTER DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 80W. WINDS AND SEAS
COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 300759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
359 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED LIGHT TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING...FLOWING AROUND
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE GULF. THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE UPCOMING SEVERAL DAYS RELATES TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS YUCATAN AND THE FAR S CENTRAL GULF WATERS LATE TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING
THAT LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER AS IT MOVES
INTO THE FAR SW GULF LATE SUN AND MON...WHERE IT WILL SLOW AND
DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF VERACRUZ THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE
REMAIN SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH THE LOW WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE SW GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET OR NAVGEM. OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO
SHOW FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW MON THROUGH WED OVER THE W
CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA
AND COSTA RICA WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TONIGHT AND W OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRES HAD BEEN
NOTED ALONG THIS WAVE NE OF HONDURAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
A RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATES THAT THIS LOW HAS
DISSIPATED. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WERE NOTED OVER THE
GULF OF HONDURAS AT 0230 UTC. THIS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. STRONG SE WINDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS TO THE WEST IN THE SW GULF ALONG THE EXITING TROPICAL
WAVE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 T0 10 FT W OF 85W BY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW PRES
SHIFTS WEST AND THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 55W WILL
APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY...ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SUNDAY...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MONDAY. THIS TROPICAL
WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE ALTHOUGH CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ TO THE EAST OF TRINIDAD.
TRADE WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE ENHANCED
MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MAY
DAMPEN OUT ALTOGETHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON
WIND PATTERNS IN THE BASIN. A THIRD AND MORE DEVELOPED TROPICAL
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BRINGING MAINLY INCREASED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 OR 9 FT OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA DUE TO THE STRONGER TRADER WIND FLOW IN THAT AREA. NO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N69W IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF 22N. OTHERWISE RIDGING PERSISTS
MAINLY OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS N OF 22N AND MODERATE TO FRESH S OF 22N. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A PAIR OF
TROPICAL WAVES MIGRATE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 300759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
359 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED LIGHT TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING...FLOWING AROUND
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE GULF. THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE UPCOMING SEVERAL DAYS RELATES TO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS YUCATAN AND THE FAR S CENTRAL GULF WATERS LATE TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING
THAT LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER AS IT MOVES
INTO THE FAR SW GULF LATE SUN AND MON...WHERE IT WILL SLOW AND
DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF VERACRUZ THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE
REMAIN SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH THE LOW WILL DEEPEN
OVER THE SW GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET OR NAVGEM. OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO
SHOW FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW MON THROUGH WED OVER THE W
CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA
AND COSTA RICA WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TONIGHT AND W OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRES HAD BEEN
NOTED ALONG THIS WAVE NE OF HONDURAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
A RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATES THAT THIS LOW HAS
DISSIPATED. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WERE NOTED OVER THE
GULF OF HONDURAS AT 0230 UTC. THIS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. STRONG SE WINDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW PRES
DEVELOPS TO THE WEST IN THE SW GULF ALONG THE EXITING TROPICAL
WAVE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 T0 10 FT W OF 85W BY LATE SUNDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW PRES
SHIFTS WEST AND THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS.

A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 55W WILL
APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY...ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SUNDAY...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MONDAY. THIS TROPICAL
WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE ALTHOUGH CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ TO THE EAST OF TRINIDAD.
TRADE WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE ENHANCED
MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MAY
DAMPEN OUT ALTOGETHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON
WIND PATTERNS IN THE BASIN. A THIRD AND MORE DEVELOPED TROPICAL
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...BRINGING MAINLY INCREASED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 OR 9 FT OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA DUE TO THE STRONGER TRADER WIND FLOW IN THAT AREA. NO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N69W IS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF 22N. OTHERWISE RIDGING PERSISTS
MAINLY OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...MAINTAINING LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS N OF 22N AND MODERATE TO FRESH S OF 22N. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A PAIR OF
TROPICAL WAVES MIGRATE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




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