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000
AGXX40 KNHC 190759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
359 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TROUGH.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA AS A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA SW TO NEAR
24N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF...AND ELSEWHERE N OF 23N BETWEEN 87W
AND 94W. LATEST OFFSHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND PLATFORMS ARE
REPORTING E-SE 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
GULF...EXCEPT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OF 5-10 KT IN THE FAR NE
PORTION...AND S-SW TO VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT IN THE FAR SE
PORTION INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ARE LOW THROUGHOUT...
IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 1 FT OR LESS SEAS IN
THE FAR NE PORTION.

THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOSE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS ONES.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOME MORE ACROSS THE SE GULF THIS MORNING
BEFORE STALLING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK N TO THE CENTRAL GULF SAT AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF AND LOW PRES FORMS TO THE E OF
FLORIDA. MOISTURE PROGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN THERE INTO MON BEFORE DRYING OUT WITH THE
INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE N. EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH ELY WINDS N OF THE TROUGH THROUGH SAT EVENING AS THE
GRADEINT TIGHTENS WITH STRONGER HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE
SE CONUS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED
WEAK RIDGING N OF AREA CONTINUES TO RESULT IN ONLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH SEA HEIGHTS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE
S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 2-3 FT ELSEWHERE E OF 81W. SEAS W OF
81W ARE LOWER...IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE PER LATEST AVAILABLE ALTIMETER
DATA AND BUOY REPORTS. THE WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NE-E TRADES AT 10-20 KT WILL
PREVAIL IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER
AT NIGHT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
5-6 FT RANGE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...4-6 FT IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE WITH THE LOWEST OF THIS RANGE
CONFINED TO THE NW PORTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS IT
SIGNATURE AT THE SURFACE BECOMES RATHER SUBTLE. THE WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY E OF THE AREA
ALONG 46W/47W S OF 19N WITH WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE WAVE AT
15N46W WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY
ON SAT...AND CONTINUE ACROSS THOSE WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AND SUN NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. NE TO E TRADES OF 10-15 KT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...EXCEPT GFS/ECMWF
BLEND NW PORTION THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE NW PORTION THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N74W TO SOUTH FLORIDA...WHILE A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR
30N W OF 78W. A RIDGE EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 26N E OF THE BAHAMAS.
LATEST BUOY...SHIP AND ASCAT DATA SHOW MAINLY GENTLE E-SE WINDS S
OF THE RIDGE...AND S-SW GENTLE TO FRESH WINDS N OF THE RIDGE.
GENTLE S-SW WINDS ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE
REPORTING SEAS OF 3-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE
BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE TROUGH...AND ALSO ELSEWHERE N OF 25N W OF 73W. THE TROUGH WILL
STALL FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT BACK TO
THE NW FRI NIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OVER THE SE U.S. AND SWING SEWD
ACROSS THE NW PORTION SAT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD HELP SPIN UP A LOW
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SAT TO THE E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
THE NW BAHAMAS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN FORWARD MOTION
TIMINIG OF THE LOW...AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE UKMET BUT
SIMILAR TO THE NAVGEM MODEL GUIDANCE IN TAKING THE LOW NEWD TO N
OF THE AREA EARLY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF AT THAT TIME HAS THE LOW
FARTHER S NEAR 29N78W. FOR THE NDFD GRIDS...WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH SAT NIGHT FOR THE THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA
WHERE THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20 KT E OF THE LOW DURING SAT AND INTO SAT NIGHT AS
ATLC RIDGING TO ITS E BUILDS WSW WHILE STRENGTHENING SOME. THESE
WINDS MAY BE HIGHER PENDING ACTUAL INTENSITY OF LOW AND STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE TO ITS E. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT
NEAR AND E OF THE LOW. ONCE THE LOW LIFTS N OF THE AREA SAT
NIGHT...A TRAILING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NEAR 31N73W
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WATERS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED WITH 5-15 KT RETURN FLOW AND 3-5 FT SEAS EXPECTED...EXCEPT
2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 190759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
359 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TROUGH.

LATEST SURFACE SHOWS A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA AS A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA SW TO NEAR 24N85W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE GULF...AND ELSEWHERE N OF 23N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W.
LATEST OFFSHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND PLATFORMS ARE REPORTING
E-SE 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT FOR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OF 5-10 KT IN THE FAR NE PORTION...AND S-SW
TO VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT IN THE FAR SE PORTION INCLUDING THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ARE LOW THROUGHOUT...IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 1 FT OR LESS SEAS IN THE FAR NE PORTION.

THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOSE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS ONES.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOME MORE ACROSS THE SE GULF THIS MORNING
BEFORE STALLING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK N TO THE CENTRAL GULF SAT AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF AND LOW PRES FORMS TO THE E OF
FLORIDA. MOISTURE PROGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN THERE INTO MON BEFORE DRYING OUT WITH THE
INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE N. EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH ELY WINDS N OF THE TROUGH THROUGH SAT EVENING AS THE
GRADEINT TIGHTENS WITH STRONGER HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE
SE CONUS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED
WEAK RIDGING N OF AREA CONTINUES TO RESULT IN ONLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH SEA HEIGHTS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE
S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 2-3 FT ELSEWHERE E OF 81W. SEAS W OF
81W ARE LOWER...IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE PER LATEST AVAILABLE ALTIMETER
DATA AND BUOY REPORTS. THE WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NE-E TRADES AT 10-20 KT WILL
PREVAIL IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER
AT NIGHT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
5-6 FT RANGE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...4-6 FT IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE WITH THE LOWEST OF THIS RANGE
CONFINED TO THE NW PORTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS IT
SIGNATURE AT THE SURFACE BECOMES RATHER SUBTLE. THE WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY E OF THE AREA
ALONG 46W/47W S OF 19N WITH WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE WAVE AT
15N46W WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY
ON SAT...AND CONTINUE ACROSS THOSE WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AND SUN NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. NE TO E TRADES OF 10-15 KT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...EXCEPT GFS/ECMWF
BLEND NW PORTION THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE NW PORTION THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N74W TO SOUTH FLORIDA...WHILE A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR
30N W OF 78W. A RIDGE EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 26N E OF THE BAHAMAS.
LATEST BUOY...SHIP AND ASCAT DATA SHOW MAINLY GENTLE E-SE WINDS S
OF THE RIDGE...AND S-SW GENTLE TO FRESH WINDS N OF THE RIDGE.
GENTLE S-SW WINDS ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE
REPORTING SEAS OF 3-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE
BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE TROUGH...AND ALSO ELSEWHERE N OF 25N W OF 73W. THE TROUGH WILL
STALL FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT BACK TO
THE NW FRI NIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OVER THE SE U.S. AND SWING SEWD
ACROSS THE NW PORTION SAT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD HELP SPIN UP A LOW
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SAT TO THE E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
THE NW BAHAMAS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN FORWARD MOTION
TIMINIG OF THE LOW...AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE UKMET BUT
SIMILAR TO THE NAVGEM MODEL GUIDANCE IN TAKING THE LOW NEWD TO N
OF THE AREA EARLY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF AT THAT TIME HAS THE LOW
FARTHER S NEAR 29N78W. FOR THE NDFD GRIDS...WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH SAT NIGHT FOR THE THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA
WHERE THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20 KT E OF THE LOW DURING SAT AND INTO SAT NIGHT AS
ATLC RIDGING TO ITS E BUILDS WSW WHILE STRENGTHENING SOME. THESE
WINDS MAY BE HIGHER PENDING ACTUAL INTENSITY OF LOW AND STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE TO ITS E. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT
NEAR AND E OF THE LOW. ONCE THE LOW LIFTS N OF THE AREA SAT
NIGHT...A TRAILING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NEAR 31N73W
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WATERS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED WITH 5-15 KT RETURN FLOW AND 3-5 FT SEAS EXPECTED...EXCEPT
2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 190759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
359 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TROUGH.

LATEST SURFACE SHOWS A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA AS A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA SW TO NEAR 24N85W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE GULF...AND ELSEWHERE N OF 23N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W.
LATEST OFFSHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND PLATFORMS ARE REPORTING
E-SE 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT FOR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OF 5-10 KT IN THE FAR NE PORTION...AND S-SW
TO VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT IN THE FAR SE PORTION INCLUDING THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ARE LOW THROUGHOUT...IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 1 FT OR LESS SEAS IN THE FAR NE PORTION.

THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOSE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS ONES.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOME MORE ACROSS THE SE GULF THIS MORNING
BEFORE STALLING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK N TO THE CENTRAL GULF SAT AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF AND LOW PRES FORMS TO THE E OF
FLORIDA. MOISTURE PROGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN THERE INTO MON BEFORE DRYING OUT WITH THE
INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE N. EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH ELY WINDS N OF THE TROUGH THROUGH SAT EVENING AS THE
GRADEINT TIGHTENS WITH STRONGER HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE
SE CONUS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED
WEAK RIDGING N OF AREA CONTINUES TO RESULT IN ONLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH SEA HEIGHTS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE
S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 2-3 FT ELSEWHERE E OF 81W. SEAS W OF
81W ARE LOWER...IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE PER LATEST AVAILABLE ALTIMETER
DATA AND BUOY REPORTS. THE WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NE-E TRADES AT 10-20 KT WILL
PREVAIL IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER
AT NIGHT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
5-6 FT RANGE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...4-6 FT IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE WITH THE LOWEST OF THIS RANGE
CONFINED TO THE NW PORTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS IT
SIGNATURE AT THE SURFACE BECOMES RATHER SUBTLE. THE WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY E OF THE AREA
ALONG 46W/47W S OF 19N WITH WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE WAVE AT
15N46W WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY
ON SAT...AND CONTINUE ACROSS THOSE WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AND SUN NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. NE TO E TRADES OF 10-15 KT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...EXCEPT GFS/ECMWF
BLEND NW PORTION THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE NW PORTION THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N74W TO SOUTH FLORIDA...WHILE A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR
30N W OF 78W. A RIDGE EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 26N E OF THE BAHAMAS.
LATEST BUOY...SHIP AND ASCAT DATA SHOW MAINLY GENTLE E-SE WINDS S
OF THE RIDGE...AND S-SW GENTLE TO FRESH WINDS N OF THE RIDGE.
GENTLE S-SW WINDS ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE
REPORTING SEAS OF 3-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE
BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE TROUGH...AND ALSO ELSEWHERE N OF 25N W OF 73W. THE TROUGH WILL
STALL FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT BACK TO
THE NW FRI NIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OVER THE SE U.S. AND SWING SEWD
ACROSS THE NW PORTION SAT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD HELP SPIN UP A LOW
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SAT TO THE E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
THE NW BAHAMAS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN FORWARD MOTION
TIMINIG OF THE LOW...AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE UKMET BUT
SIMILAR TO THE NAVGEM MODEL GUIDANCE IN TAKING THE LOW NEWD TO N
OF THE AREA EARLY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF AT THAT TIME HAS THE LOW
FARTHER S NEAR 29N78W. FOR THE NDFD GRIDS...WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH SAT NIGHT FOR THE THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA
WHERE THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20 KT E OF THE LOW DURING SAT AND INTO SAT NIGHT AS
ATLC RIDGING TO ITS E BUILDS WSW WHILE STRENGTHENING SOME. THESE
WINDS MAY BE HIGHER PENDING ACTUAL INTENSITY OF LOW AND STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE TO ITS E. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT
NEAR AND E OF THE LOW. ONCE THE LOW LIFTS N OF THE AREA SAT
NIGHT...A TRAILING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NEAR 31N73W
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WATERS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED WITH 5-15 KT RETURN FLOW AND 3-5 FT SEAS EXPECTED...EXCEPT
2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 190759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
359 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TROUGH.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN
ACROSS THE AREA AS A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA SW TO NEAR
24N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF...AND ELSEWHERE N OF 23N BETWEEN 87W
AND 94W. LATEST OFFSHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND PLATFORMS ARE
REPORTING E-SE 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
GULF...EXCEPT FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OF 5-10 KT IN THE FAR NE
PORTION...AND S-SW TO VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT IN THE FAR SE
PORTION INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ARE LOW THROUGHOUT...
IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 1 FT OR LESS SEAS IN
THE FAR NE PORTION.

THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOSE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS ONES.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOME MORE ACROSS THE SE GULF THIS MORNING
BEFORE STALLING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK N TO THE CENTRAL GULF SAT AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF AND LOW PRES FORMS TO THE E OF
FLORIDA. MOISTURE PROGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN THERE INTO MON BEFORE DRYING OUT WITH THE
INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE N. EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH ELY WINDS N OF THE TROUGH THROUGH SAT EVENING AS THE
GRADEINT TIGHTENS WITH STRONGER HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE
SE CONUS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED
WEAK RIDGING N OF AREA CONTINUES TO RESULT IN ONLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH SEA HEIGHTS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE
S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 2-3 FT ELSEWHERE E OF 81W. SEAS W OF
81W ARE LOWER...IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE PER LATEST AVAILABLE ALTIMETER
DATA AND BUOY REPORTS. THE WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NE-E TRADES AT 10-20 KT WILL
PREVAIL IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER
AT NIGHT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
5-6 FT RANGE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...4-6 FT IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE WITH THE LOWEST OF THIS RANGE
CONFINED TO THE NW PORTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS IT
SIGNATURE AT THE SURFACE BECOMES RATHER SUBTLE. THE WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY E OF THE AREA
ALONG 46W/47W S OF 19N WITH WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE WAVE AT
15N46W WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY
ON SAT...AND CONTINUE ACROSS THOSE WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AND SUN NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. NE TO E TRADES OF 10-15 KT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...EXCEPT GFS/ECMWF
BLEND NW PORTION THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE NW PORTION THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N74W TO SOUTH FLORIDA...WHILE A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR
30N W OF 78W. A RIDGE EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 26N E OF THE BAHAMAS.
LATEST BUOY...SHIP AND ASCAT DATA SHOW MAINLY GENTLE E-SE WINDS S
OF THE RIDGE...AND S-SW GENTLE TO FRESH WINDS N OF THE RIDGE.
GENTLE S-SW WINDS ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE
REPORTING SEAS OF 3-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE
BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE TROUGH...AND ALSO ELSEWHERE N OF 25N W OF 73W. THE TROUGH WILL
STALL FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT BACK TO
THE NW FRI NIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OVER THE SE U.S. AND SWING SEWD
ACROSS THE NW PORTION SAT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD HELP SPIN UP A LOW
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SAT TO THE E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
THE NW BAHAMAS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF IN FORWARD MOTION
TIMINIG OF THE LOW...AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE UKMET BUT
SIMILAR TO THE NAVGEM MODEL GUIDANCE IN TAKING THE LOW NEWD TO N
OF THE AREA EARLY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF AT THAT TIME HAS THE LOW
FARTHER S NEAR 29N78W. FOR THE NDFD GRIDS...WILL USE A BLEND OF
THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH SAT NIGHT FOR THE THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA
WHERE THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 20 KT E OF THE LOW DURING SAT AND INTO SAT NIGHT AS
ATLC RIDGING TO ITS E BUILDS WSW WHILE STRENGTHENING SOME. THESE
WINDS MAY BE HIGHER PENDING ACTUAL INTENSITY OF LOW AND STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE TO ITS E. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT
NEAR AND E OF THE LOW. ONCE THE LOW LIFTS N OF THE AREA SAT
NIGHT...A TRAILING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM NEAR 31N73W
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WATERS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED WITH 5-15 KT RETURN FLOW AND 3-5 FT SEAS EXPECTED...EXCEPT
2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 190756
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
356 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TROUGH.

LATEST SURFACE SHOWS A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA AS A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA SW TO NEAR 24N85W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE GULF...AND ELSEWHERE N OF 23N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W.
LATEST OFFSHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND PLATFORMS ARE REPORTING
E-SE 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT FOR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OF 5-10 KT IN THE FAR NE PORTION...AND S-SW
TO VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT IN THE FAR SE PORTION INCLUDING THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ARE LOW THROUGHOUT...IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 1 FT OR LESS SEAS IN THE FAR NE PORTION.

THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOSE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS ONES.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOME MORE ACROSS THE SE GULF THIS MORNING
BEFORE STALLING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK N TO THE CENTRAL GULF SAT AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF AND LOW PRES FORMS TO THE E OF
FLORIDA. MOISTURE PROGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN THERE INTO EARLY NEXT BEFORE DEPICT THIS
FEATURE TO REMAIN THERE INTO MON BEFORE DRYING OUT WITH THE
INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE N. EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH ELY WINDS N OF THE TROUGH THROUGH SAT EVENING AS THE
GRADEINT TIGHTENS WITH STRONGER HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE
SE CONUS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED
WEAK RIDGING N OF AREA CONTINUES TO RESULT IN ONLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH SEA HEIGHTS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE
S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 2-3 FT ELSEWHERE E OF 81W. SEAS W OF
81W ARE LOWER...IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE PER LATEST AVAILABLE ALTIMETERDATA
AND BUOY REPORTS. THE WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NE-E TRADES AT 10-20 KT WILL PREVAIL
IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER AT NIGHT
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 5-6 FT
RANGE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...4-6 FT IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE WITH THE LOWEST OF THIS RANGE
CONFINES TO THE NW PORTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS IT
SIGNATURE AT THE SURFACE BECOMES RATHER SUBTLE. THE WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY E OF THE AREA
ALONG 46W/47W S OF 19N WITH WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE WAVE AT
15N46W WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY
ON SAT...AND CONTINUE ACROSS THOSE WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AND SUN NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. NE TO E TRADES OF 10-15 KT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...EXCEPT GFS/ECMWF
BLEND NW PORTION THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE NW PORTION THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N74W TO SOUTH FLORIDA...WHILE A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR
30N W OF 78W. A RIDGE EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 26N E OF THE BAHAMAS.
LATEST BUOY...SHIP AND ASCAT DATA SHOW MAINLY GENTLE E-SE WINDS S
OF THE RIDGE...AND S-SW GENTLE TO FRESH WINDS N OF THE RIDGE.
GENTLE S-SW WINDS ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE
REPORTING SEAS OF 3-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE
BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE TROUGH...AND ALSO ELSEWHERE N OF 25N W OF 73W. THE TROUGH WILL
STALL FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT BACK TO
THE NW FRI NIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OVER THE SE U.S. AND SWING SEWD
ACROSS THE NW PORTION SAT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD HELP SPIN UP A LOW
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SAT TO THE E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
THE NW BAHAMAS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...AND SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE UKMET BUT SIMILAR TO THE NAVGEM MODEL GUIDANCE IN
TAKING THE LOW NEWD TO N OF THE AREA EARLY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF AT
THAT TIME HAS THE LOW FARTHER S NEAR 29N78W. FOR THE NDFD
GRIDS...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH SAT NIGHT FOR
THE THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. SLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT E OF THE LOW
DURING SAT AND INTO SAT NIGHT AS ATLC RIDGING TO ITS E BUILDS WSW
WHILE STRENGTHENING SOME. THESE WINDS MAY BE HIGHER PENDING ACTUAL
INTENSITY OF LOW AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO ITS E. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT NEAR AND E OF THE LOW. ONCE THE
LOW LIFTS N OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT...A TRAILING TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO STRETCH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED WITH 5-15 KT RETURN FLOW AND 3-5 FT
SEAS EXPECTED...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 190756
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
356 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TROUGH.

LATEST SURFACE SHOWS A RELATIVELY WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA AS A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA SW TO NEAR 24N85W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE GULF...AND ELSEWHERE N OF 23N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W.
LATEST OFFSHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND PLATFORMS ARE REPORTING
E-SE 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT FOR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OF 5-10 KT IN THE FAR NE PORTION...AND S-SW
TO VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT IN THE FAR SE PORTION INCLUDING THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS ARE LOW THROUGHOUT...IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 1 FT OR LESS SEAS IN THE FAR NE PORTION.

THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN CLOSE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS ONES.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOME MORE ACROSS THE SE GULF THIS MORNING
BEFORE STALLING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK N TO THE CENTRAL GULF SAT AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF AND LOW PRES FORMS TO THE E OF
FLORIDA. MOISTURE PROGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN THERE INTO EARLY NEXT BEFORE DEPICT THIS
FEATURE TO REMAIN THERE INTO MON BEFORE DRYING OUT WITH THE
INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE N. EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH ELY WINDS N OF THE TROUGH THROUGH SAT EVENING AS THE
GRADEINT TIGHTENS WITH STRONGER HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE
SE CONUS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED
WEAK RIDGING N OF AREA CONTINUES TO RESULT IN ONLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH SEA HEIGHTS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE
S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 2-3 FT ELSEWHERE E OF 81W. SEAS W OF
81W ARE LOWER...IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE PER LATEST AVAILABLE ALTIMETERDATA
AND BUOY REPORTS. THE WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NE-E TRADES AT 10-20 KT WILL PREVAIL
IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER AT NIGHT
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 5-6 FT
RANGE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...4-6 FT IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...AND 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE WITH THE LOWEST OF THIS RANGE
CONFINES TO THE NW PORTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS IT
SIGNATURE AT THE SURFACE BECOMES RATHER SUBTLE. THE WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH MON NIGHT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY E OF THE AREA
ALONG 46W/47W S OF 19N WITH WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE WAVE AT
15N46W WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY
ON SAT...AND CONTINUE ACROSS THOSE WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THEN
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN AND SUN NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. NE TO E TRADES OF 10-15 KT WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL...EXCEPT GFS/ECMWF
BLEND NW PORTION THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE NW PORTION THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.

A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N74W TO SOUTH FLORIDA...WHILE A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR
30N W OF 78W. A RIDGE EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 26N E OF THE BAHAMAS.
LATEST BUOY...SHIP AND ASCAT DATA SHOW MAINLY GENTLE E-SE WINDS S
OF THE RIDGE...AND S-SW GENTLE TO FRESH WINDS N OF THE RIDGE.
GENTLE S-SW WINDS ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE
REPORTING SEAS OF 3-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE
BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE TROUGH...AND ALSO ELSEWHERE N OF 25N W OF 73W. THE TROUGH WILL
STALL FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT BACK TO
THE NW FRI NIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OVER THE SE U.S. AND SWING SEWD
ACROSS THE NW PORTION SAT INTO SUN. THIS SHOULD HELP SPIN UP A LOW
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SAT TO THE E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
THE NW BAHAMAS. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...AND SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE UKMET BUT SIMILAR TO THE NAVGEM MODEL GUIDANCE IN
TAKING THE LOW NEWD TO N OF THE AREA EARLY SAT NIGHT. THE ECMWF AT
THAT TIME HAS THE LOW FARTHER S NEAR 29N78W. FOR THE NDFD
GRIDS...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH SAT NIGHT FOR
THE THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. SLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT E OF THE LOW
DURING SAT AND INTO SAT NIGHT AS ATLC RIDGING TO ITS E BUILDS WSW
WHILE STRENGTHENING SOME. THESE WINDS MAY BE HIGHER PENDING ACTUAL
INTENSITY OF LOW AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO ITS E. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 8 FT NEAR AND E OF THE LOW. ONCE THE
LOW LIFTS N OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT...A TRAILING TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO STRETCH FROM NEAR 31N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED WITH 5-15 KT RETURN FLOW AND 3-5 FT
SEAS EXPECTED...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 181812
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
212 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A 1015 MB HIGH PRES IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W AND IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 6-12 HOURS. A FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT MYERS TO 28N87W. THIS TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY NEAR 26N86W. WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATES THE GULF REGION WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT 5-10 KT
IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS...AND
E-SE WINDS AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF WITH SEAS OF
1-3 FT.

THE FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE E CENTRAL OR SE
GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO THE N
INTO THE WEEKEND MEANDERING ALONG 26N/27N. EXPECT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH ELY WINDS N OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND MAINLY ACROSS
THE N WATERS ON FRI AND SAT AS A STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS
THE SE CONUS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS NEAR
THE COAST OF YUCATAN DURING THE EVENINGS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...WEAK RIDGE N OF AREA IS PRODUCING ONLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT BASED ON
BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS. WINDS SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT.
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. NE-E TRADES AT 10-20 KT WILL PREVAIL IN
THE S CENTRAL WATERS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
AND AT NIGHT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS WILL BE 4-6 FT NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH MAINLY
1-3 FT ELSEWHERE.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN WILL
WEAKEN AND BECOME HARDER TO TRACK AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 43W/44W S
OF 20N WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SAT AND SAT
NIGHT...THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUN AND SUN NIGHT. TRADES AT
10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH 4-6
FT SEAS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. FRESH TO
STRONG SWLY FLOW IS NOTED N OF 30N AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO
ABOUT 64W WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING SOME
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
27N. THE TROUGH WILL STALL FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA ON FRI...THEN
MOVE BACK TO THE NW FRI NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL THEN STALL OVER THE
NW PORTION SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG IT E
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA SUN WHILE A
TRAILING TROUGH LINGERS IN THE NW PORTION. AS THE LOW PRES
DEVELOPS...EXPECT INCREASING NE WINDS NW AND N OF THE LOW CENTER
WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 5-8 FT.

THE FORECAST DEPENDS ON HOW STRONG THE LOW DEVELOPS. THIS LOW
PRES AREA WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
CURRENTLY...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OF
20-30 KT AND SEAS OF 7-10 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN...AND MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
TROUGH WITH SEAS TO NEAR 8 FT. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WATERS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED WITH 5-15 KT RETURN FLOW AND 3-5 FT SEAS EXPECTED...
EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 181812
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
212 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A 1015 MB HIGH PRES IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W AND IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 6-12 HOURS. A FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM NEAR FORT MYERS TO 28N87W. THIS TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY NEAR 26N86W. WEAK PRES
GRADIENT DOMINATES THE GULF REGION WITH VARIABLE WINDS AT 5-10 KT
IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS...AND
E-SE WINDS AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF WITH SEAS OF
1-3 FT.

THE FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE E CENTRAL OR SE
GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO THE N
INTO THE WEEKEND MEANDERING ALONG 26N/27N. EXPECT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH ELY WINDS N OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND MAINLY ACROSS
THE N WATERS ON FRI AND SAT AS A STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS
THE SE CONUS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS NEAR
THE COAST OF YUCATAN DURING THE EVENINGS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...WEAK RIDGE N OF AREA IS PRODUCING ONLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT BASED ON
BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS. WINDS SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT.
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. NE-E TRADES AT 10-20 KT WILL PREVAIL IN
THE S CENTRAL WATERS...LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
AND AT NIGHT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS WILL BE 4-6 FT NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH MAINLY
1-3 FT ELSEWHERE.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN WILL
WEAKEN AND BECOME HARDER TO TRACK AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 43W/44W S
OF 20N WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SAT AND SAT
NIGHT...THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUN AND SUN NIGHT. TRADES AT
10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH 4-6
FT SEAS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO SOUTH FLORIDA. FRESH TO
STRONG SWLY FLOW IS NOTED N OF 30N AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO
ABOUT 64W WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING SOME
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
27N. THE TROUGH WILL STALL FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA ON FRI...THEN
MOVE BACK TO THE NW FRI NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL THEN STALL OVER THE
NW PORTION SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG IT E
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA SUN WHILE A
TRAILING TROUGH LINGERS IN THE NW PORTION. AS THE LOW PRES
DEVELOPS...EXPECT INCREASING NE WINDS NW AND N OF THE LOW CENTER
WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 5-8 FT.

THE FORECAST DEPENDS ON HOW STRONG THE LOW DEVELOPS. THIS LOW
PRES AREA WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
CURRENTLY...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OF
20-30 KT AND SEAS OF 7-10 FT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN...AND MODERATE TO FRESH NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
TROUGH WITH SEAS TO NEAR 8 FT. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WATERS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED WITH 5-15 KT RETURN FLOW AND 3-5 FT SEAS EXPECTED...
EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 180622
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
222 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

1015 MB HIGH PRES IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS IN THE E GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY
FLORIDA TO 28N87W WITH THE PARENT COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE
NE GULF COASTLINE. A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
IS AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO SW FLORIDA. WINDS
ARE VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF ALONG WITH
SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS...WHILE E-SE WINDS AT 10-15 KT ARE ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE GULF ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE E CENTRAL OR SE GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO THE NW-N INTO
THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE LOWERS FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DIFFERING FROM THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. THE
REMNANTS OF FRONT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS N OF THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 6 FT. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE SW N ATLC
OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND THUS THE STRENGTH AND EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. NE-E TRADES AT 10-20 KT
WILL PREVAIL...HIGHEST IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS AND AT NIGHT IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS WILL BE 4-6 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH MAINLY 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME HARDER TO TRACK AS
IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THEN INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN SUN AND SUN NIGHT. TRADES AT 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS...EXCEPT TO 7
FT N OF 15N IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TODAY.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NEAR 28N65W TO JUST N OF CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
23N78W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N73W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS WHILE THE PARENT COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 31N76W
TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AS INDICATED BY DRIER AIR/LOWERING
DEWPOINTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120
NM AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT ARE INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 29N BUILDING SEAS
TO NEAR 8 FT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY 5-15 KT WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS
CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE
BAHAMAS.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL AS IT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN WILL
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE W-NW AS EITHER A REMNANT TROUGH OR WARM
FRONT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THAT FEATURE WILL THEN STALL FROM NEAR
31N75W TO S FLORIDA BY SAT MORNING WITH WEAK LOW PRES NOW EXPECTED
TO FORM ALONG IT E OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THROUGH SAT. THE
LOW WILL LIFT N TO NEAR 31N77W LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
WHILE A TRAILING TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS AND
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE LOW MANAGES TO DEVELOP...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS MAY SETUP BOTH ON THE SE AND BACK-SIDE OF
THE LOW SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
5-15 KT RETURN FLOW AND 3-5 FT SEAS EXPECTED...EXCEPT 2 FT OR
LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 180622
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
222 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

1015 MB HIGH PRES IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS IN THE E GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY
FLORIDA TO 28N87W WITH THE PARENT COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE
NE GULF COASTLINE. A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
IS AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING INTO SW FLORIDA. WINDS
ARE VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF ALONG WITH
SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS...WHILE E-SE WINDS AT 10-15 KT ARE ACROSS THE
SW HALF OF THE GULF ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE E CENTRAL OR SE GULF
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO THE NW-N INTO
THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE LOWERS FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DIFFERING FROM THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. THE
REMNANTS OF FRONT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS N OF THE
BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 6 FT. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE SW N ATLC
OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND THUS THE STRENGTH AND EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. NE-E TRADES AT 10-20 KT
WILL PREVAIL...HIGHEST IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS AND AT NIGHT IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS WILL BE 4-6 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH MAINLY 1-3 FT ELSEWHERE.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME HARDER TO TRACK AS
IT CONTINUES WESTWARD. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THEN INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN SUN AND SUN NIGHT. TRADES AT 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS...EXCEPT TO 7
FT N OF 15N IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TODAY.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

RIDGING EXTENDS FROM NEAR 28N65W TO JUST N OF CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
23N78W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N73W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS WHILE THE PARENT COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 31N76W
TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AS INDICATED BY DRIER AIR/LOWERING
DEWPOINTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120
NM AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH/FRONT ARE INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 29N BUILDING SEAS
TO NEAR 8 FT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY 5-15 KT WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS
CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE BASIN...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE
BAHAMAS.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL AS IT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN WILL
RETROGRADE BACK TO THE W-NW AS EITHER A REMNANT TROUGH OR WARM
FRONT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THAT FEATURE WILL THEN STALL FROM NEAR
31N75W TO S FLORIDA BY SAT MORNING WITH WEAK LOW PRES NOW EXPECTED
TO FORM ALONG IT E OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THROUGH SAT. THE
LOW WILL LIFT N TO NEAR 31N77W LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
WHILE A TRAILING TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS AND
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE LOW MANAGES TO DEVELOP...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS MAY SETUP BOTH ON THE SE AND BACK-SIDE OF
THE LOW SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED WITH
5-15 KT RETURN FLOW AND 3-5 FT SEAS EXPECTED...EXCEPT 2 FT OR
LESS INSIDE THE BAHAMAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 171830
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF GENERATING
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. GENTLE NLY WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE
TROUGH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS TROUGH AND MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E GULF THROUGH THU...DISSIPATING BY FRI.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF AND EXTENDS FROM 24N96W TO
19N94W. THERE IS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
TROUGH. AN ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

A 1016 MB HIGH PRES IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N89W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN EARLIER ASCAT
PASS INDICATED LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
INTO THE SE GULF NEAR 24N85W BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DROP SE-S THROUGH THE GULF E OF 88W.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE SE GULF BY FRI MORNING AND WILL
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT TROUGH WHICH WILL LINGER INTO SAT
MORNING. NO OTHER MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ELY WINDS N OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE N WATERS ON SAT. IN ADDITION...
EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF YUCATAN DURING
THE EVENINGS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...WEAK RIDGE N OF AREA IS PRODUCING ONLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT BASED ON
BUOYS AND SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS. WINDS SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT. A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH WINDS
INCREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4-6 FT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION AND EXTENDS ALONG 58W S OF 22N. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE COVERING THE AREA
FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W. THE EDGE OF AN 1300 UTC
ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...THEN
THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN THU AND THU NIGHT...CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI
AND FRI NIGHT...THEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE W
CARIBBEAN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 38W S OF 18N
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD REACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY SAT
AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUN. SWELLS GENERATED FROM DISTANT
HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION LATER TODAY.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS JUST N OF THE FORECAST REGION WHILE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N80W TO ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE NE PART OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THESE FEATURES AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS N OF
28N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE WATERS. A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES
MAINLY THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA PER SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA...
BUT WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE E-SE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND PARENT COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
WATERS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N73W TO THE
NW BAHAMAS THU MORNING...THEN FROM 31N70W TO NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA FRI
MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL...THEN WILL DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH
WHICH WILL RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD THE NW PORTION BY SUN. WEAK LOW
PRES IS STILL FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH IT STILL
APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST N OF 31N. MARINE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS OF 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND N OF
28N ON THU...WITH SEAS LIKELY BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT. EXPECT
GENTLE TO MODERATE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS 0F 4-5 FT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 171830
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF GENERATING
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. GENTLE NLY WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE
TROUGH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS TROUGH AND MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E GULF THROUGH THU...DISSIPATING BY FRI.
ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF AND EXTENDS FROM 24N96W TO
19N94W. THERE IS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
TROUGH. AN ASCAT PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THIS TROUGH
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

A 1016 MB HIGH PRES IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N89W WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN EARLIER ASCAT
PASS INDICATED LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
INTO THE SE GULF NEAR 24N85W BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DROP SE-S THROUGH THE GULF E OF 88W.
THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE SE GULF BY FRI MORNING AND WILL
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT TROUGH WHICH WILL LINGER INTO SAT
MORNING. NO OTHER MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ELY WINDS N OF THE
TROUGH AXIS AND MAINLY ACROSS THE N WATERS ON SAT. IN ADDITION...
EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF YUCATAN DURING
THE EVENINGS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...WEAK RIDGE N OF AREA IS PRODUCING ONLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT BASED ON
BUOYS AND SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS. WINDS SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT. A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH WINDS
INCREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4-6 FT.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION AND EXTENDS ALONG 58W S OF 22N. A CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE COVERING THE AREA
FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W. THE EDGE OF AN 1300 UTC
ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...THEN
THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN THU AND THU NIGHT...CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI
AND FRI NIGHT...THEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE W
CARIBBEAN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 38W S OF 18N
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD REACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY SAT
AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUN. SWELLS GENERATED FROM DISTANT
HURRICANE EDOUARD WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION LATER TODAY.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS JUST N OF THE FORECAST REGION WHILE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N80W TO ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE NE PART OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THESE FEATURES AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS N OF
28N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE WATERS. A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES
MAINLY THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA PER SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA...
BUT WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE E-SE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND PARENT COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
WATERS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N73W TO THE
NW BAHAMAS THU MORNING...THEN FROM 31N70W TO NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA FRI
MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL...THEN WILL DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH
WHICH WILL RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD THE NW PORTION BY SUN. WEAK LOW
PRES IS STILL FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH IT STILL
APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST N OF 31N. MARINE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS OF 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND N OF
28N ON THU...WITH SEAS LIKELY BUILDING TO AROUND 8 FT. EXPECT
GENTLE TO MODERATE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS 0F 4-5 FT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 170703
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
303 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1017 MB HIGH PRES IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N91W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 24N85W TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MAINLY
5-10 KT WINDS DOMINATE THE NE HALF OF THE GULF WITH 10-15 KT
ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT BASIN-WIDE. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS DROPPED INTO THE NE GULF WITH THE PARENT
COLD FRONT STILL TO THE N AND INLAND. SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH AN ADDITIONAL
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD SW FLORIDA SUPPORTED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO SUPPORTING
CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE SE GULF NEAR 24N85W
BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
DROP SE-S THROUGH THE GULF E OF 88W. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE
SE GULF BY FRI MORNING AND WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT TROUGH
WHICH WILL LINGER INTO SAT MORNING. WHILE A LINE OF TSTMS IS
LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OTHER THAN A BRIEF WIND-SHIFT NO
OTHER MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
5-15 KT WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN
72W AND 80W COMBINED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHING FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO A PARENT CYCLONE NEAR 17N82W IS HELPING TO SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS
THIS AREA. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 5-15 KT WINDS BASIN-
WIDE...EXCEPT UP TO 20 KT IN AND NEAR CONVECTION. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 1-3 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH WINDS
INCREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 10-20 KT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4-6 FT...WHILE 5-15 KT AND 1-3 FT SEAS
PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
55W/56W HAS AN ESTIMATED WESTWARD MOTION OF 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY 18-24 HOURS...THEN THROUGH
THE E CARIBBEAN THU AND THU NIGHT...CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...THEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN. A
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 36W/37W WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE LEEWARDS AND INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN SUN. AS FAR AS SEAS GO...SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NOW
DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD AT 4-7 FT SEAS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS. THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH 4-6
FT SEAS IN MIXED SE AND NE SWELL THEREAFTER.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE RELATED TO COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS/SEAS.

HIGH PRES IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA NEAR
26N69W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE W-SW NEAR BIMINI. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS ENTERING THE NW PORTION WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 70W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
NEAR 28N67W EXTENDS A TROUGH S-SW TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
HELPING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS AND
TO THE N OF HISPANIOLA. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 5-15 KT
WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT UP TO 20 KT NEAR THE
CONVECTION. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT E OF 77W WITH THE AID OF SWELLS
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE EDOUARD...AND 1-3 FT W OF 77W...EXCEPT
BUILDING SEAS NEAR THE CONVECTION.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE E-SE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND PARENT COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
WATERS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N73W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS THU MORNING...THEN FROM 31N70W TO 26N79W FRI
MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL...THEN WILL DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH
WHICH WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE W-NW THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
STALLING BACK ACROSS THE NW PORTION SUN. WEAK LOW PRES IS STILL
FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH IT STILL APPEARS THAT
IT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST N OF 31N. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHICH MAY BUILD SEAS CLOSE TO 8
FT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 170703
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
303 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1017 MB HIGH PRES IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N91W WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 24N85W TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MAINLY
5-10 KT WINDS DOMINATE THE NE HALF OF THE GULF WITH 10-15 KT
ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT BASIN-WIDE. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS DROPPED INTO THE NE GULF WITH THE PARENT
COLD FRONT STILL TO THE N AND INLAND. SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH AN ADDITIONAL
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD SW FLORIDA SUPPORTED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO SUPPORTING
CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE SE GULF NEAR 24N85W
BY THU MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
DROP SE-S THROUGH THE GULF E OF 88W. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE
SE GULF BY FRI MORNING AND WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT TROUGH
WHICH WILL LINGER INTO SAT MORNING. WHILE A LINE OF TSTMS IS
LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OTHER THAN A BRIEF WIND-SHIFT NO
OTHER MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
5-15 KT WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE WATERS
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN
72W AND 80W COMBINED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHING FROM
CENTRAL CUBA TO A PARENT CYCLONE NEAR 17N82W IS HELPING TO SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS
THIS AREA. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 5-15 KT WINDS BASIN-
WIDE...EXCEPT UP TO 20 KT IN AND NEAR CONVECTION. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 1-3 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH WINDS
INCREASING ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 10-20 KT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4-6 FT...WHILE 5-15 KT AND 1-3 FT SEAS
PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
55W/56W HAS AN ESTIMATED WESTWARD MOTION OF 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY 18-24 HOURS...THEN THROUGH
THE E CARIBBEAN THU AND THU NIGHT...CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...THEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN. A
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 36W/37W WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE LEEWARDS AND INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN SUN. AS FAR AS SEAS GO...SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH NOW
DISTANT HURRICANE EDOUARD AT 4-7 FT SEAS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE WATERS. THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH 4-6
FT SEAS IN MIXED SE AND NE SWELL THEREAFTER.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE RELATED TO COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS/SEAS.

HIGH PRES IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA NEAR
26N69W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE W-SW NEAR BIMINI. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS ENTERING THE NW PORTION WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 70W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE
NEAR 28N67W EXTENDS A TROUGH S-SW TO NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...
HELPING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS AND
TO THE N OF HISPANIOLA. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW 5-15 KT
WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT UP TO 20 KT NEAR THE
CONVECTION. SEAS ARE 4-7 FT E OF 77W WITH THE AID OF SWELLS
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE EDOUARD...AND 1-3 FT W OF 77W...EXCEPT
BUILDING SEAS NEAR THE CONVECTION.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE E-SE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND PARENT COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
WATERS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N73W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS THU MORNING...THEN FROM 31N70W TO 26N79W FRI
MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL...THEN WILL DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH
WHICH WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE W-NW THROUGH SAT NIGHT...
STALLING BACK ACROSS THE NW PORTION SUN. WEAK LOW PRES IS STILL
FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH IT STILL APPEARS THAT
IT WILL REMAIN ALONG OR JUST N OF 31N. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHICH MAY BUILD SEAS CLOSE TO 8
FT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 161841
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
241 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST AND PRESENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE
AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
SECTION OF THE GULF ALONG...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO 29N87W TO JUST S OF S
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING FURTHER AIDED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN PART OF THE U.S. THE
CONVECTION IS RACING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. BOTH BUOYS
SGOF1 AT 29N85W AND 42036 AT 28.5N84.5W ARE REPORTING W TO NW
WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. WILL MENTION
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN NEAR SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY FOR IMPACTED
ZONES IN OFFNT4 PRODUCT. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE THROUGH
WED NIGHT...WHILE THE COLD FRONT BEHIND IT SAGS SOUTHWARD REACHING
THE VICINITY OF THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND S CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THU
FRI WHILE DISSIPATING. S OF THESE FEATURES...HIGH PRES OF 1020 MB
OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF NEAR 27N83W WILL SLIDE S THROUGH WED
NIGHT WHILE ALSO WEAKENING...AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY LATE
THU.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH CONTINUING OVER THE FAR NW
AND W CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR 24N96W SE TO INLAND MEXICO
AT 19N95W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. E TO SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT
ARE E OF THE TROUGH TO 91W. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH INLAND THE
MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS BASIN-WIDE...AND PRIMARILY
1-3 FT SEAS...OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 3-5 FT NEAR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WHEN WINDS INCREASE TO LOCALLY FRESH DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH SMALL BLEND OF NWPS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE S OF A MID/UPPER
THAT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS E OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO NEAR 76W. IN ADDITION...AND ACTIVE
MONSOON TROUGH BRANCH THAT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN PACIFIC
TO SW CARIBBEAN IS ADDING TO THE ALREADY PRESENT INSTABILITY
S OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH.

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...LITTLE VARIANCE IN THE
MARINE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY
MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED...EXCEPT GENTLE IN THE LEE OF CUBA...AND
LOCALLY FRESH IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6 FT NEAR THE FRESH WINDS AND MAINLY 2-4 FT
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND IN THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. NE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE WARNING EDOUARD WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NE ATLC
PASSAGES THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH SAT. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 51W S OF 20N HAS AN
ESTIMATED MOTION OF 20 KT. THIS WILL WAVE WILL ENTER THE FAR
EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THOSE WATERS WED...THEN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE WAVE PASSAGE...
OTHERWISE ONLY A BRIEF WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED. SEAS AT 5-7 FT ARE
PARTIALLY CONTRIBUTED BY LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE
WARNING EDOUARD. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5-7 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO 4 TO 5 FT PRIMARILY IN A NEW SWELL SAT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE RELATED TO COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WINDS/SEAS.

THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY
HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 28N74W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE TO
THE N OF HURRICANE EDOUARD LOCATED NE OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS
AREA NEAR 31.1N 57.8W AT 1500 UTC. RECENT ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH
BUOY DATA SHOW GENTLE WINDS N OF 27N...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS W OF
71W...INCREASINGLY HIGHER SEAS FROM W TO E...UP TO 9 FT ALONG
65W...DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WARNING
EDOUARD. MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS ARE S OF 27N EXCEPT LOCALLY
FRESH IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ALONG WITH 3-6 FT SEAS W OF
70W...AND 6-9 FT E OF 70W. THE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

THE RIDGING WILL SLOWLY SINK SSE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DIP INTO THE NW WATERS. THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NW OF THE
AREA...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION ON WED. WEAK LOW PRES
IS EXPECTED TO FORM JUST NE OF THE NE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 31N ON
WED PER MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS ON WED...AND RACE ENE
DRAGGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH
THU. SW WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH N OF 27N
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS BACK UP TO 5-7 FT. THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE E-SE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS FRI EVENING...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL AND DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT TROUGH WHICH WILL THEN DRIFT BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS
FLORIDA FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SUN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 161841
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
241 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST AND PRESENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE
AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
SECTION OF THE GULF ALONG...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO 29N87W TO JUST S OF S
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING FURTHER AIDED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN PART OF THE U.S. THE
CONVECTION IS RACING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. BOTH BUOYS
SGOF1 AT 29N85W AND 42036 AT 28.5N84.5W ARE REPORTING W TO NW
WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY. WILL MENTION
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN NEAR SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY FOR IMPACTED
ZONES IN OFFNT4 PRODUCT. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE THROUGH
WED NIGHT...WHILE THE COLD FRONT BEHIND IT SAGS SOUTHWARD REACHING
THE VICINITY OF THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND S CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THU
FRI WHILE DISSIPATING. S OF THESE FEATURES...HIGH PRES OF 1020 MB
OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF NEAR 27N83W WILL SLIDE S THROUGH WED
NIGHT WHILE ALSO WEAKENING...AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY LATE
THU.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH CONTINUING OVER THE FAR NW
AND W CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR 24N96W SE TO INLAND MEXICO
AT 19N95W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. E TO SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT
ARE E OF THE TROUGH TO 91W. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH INLAND THE
MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS BASIN-WIDE...AND PRIMARILY
1-3 FT SEAS...OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 3-5 FT NEAR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WHEN WINDS INCREASE TO LOCALLY FRESH DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS WITH SMALL BLEND OF NWPS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE S OF A MID/UPPER
THAT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS E OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO NEAR 76W. IN ADDITION...AND ACTIVE
MONSOON TROUGH BRANCH THAT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN PACIFIC
TO SW CARIBBEAN IS ADDING TO THE ALREADY PRESENT INSTABILITY
S OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH.

AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...LITTLE VARIANCE IN THE
MARINE CONDITIONS IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY
MODERATE TRADES EXPECTED...EXCEPT GENTLE IN THE LEE OF CUBA...AND
LOCALLY FRESH IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6 FT NEAR THE FRESH WINDS AND MAINLY 2-4 FT
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND IN THE FAR E
CARIBBEAN NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. NE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE WARNING EDOUARD WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NE ATLC
PASSAGES THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH SAT. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 51W S OF 20N HAS AN
ESTIMATED MOTION OF 20 KT. THIS WILL WAVE WILL ENTER THE FAR
EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THOSE WATERS WED...THEN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED NIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE WAVE PASSAGE...
OTHERWISE ONLY A BRIEF WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED. SEAS AT 5-7 FT ARE
PARTIALLY CONTRIBUTED BY LONG PERIOD SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE
WARNING EDOUARD. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5-7 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TO 4 TO 5 FT PRIMARILY IN A NEW SWELL SAT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE RELATED TO COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
WINDS/SEAS.

THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY
HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 28N74W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE TO
THE N OF HURRICANE EDOUARD LOCATED NE OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS
AREA NEAR 31.1N 57.8W AT 1500 UTC. RECENT ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH
BUOY DATA SHOW GENTLE WINDS N OF 27N...WITH 1-3 FT SEAS W OF
71W...INCREASINGLY HIGHER SEAS FROM W TO E...UP TO 9 FT ALONG
65W...DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE WARNING
EDOUARD. MAINLY MODERATE NE-E WINDS ARE S OF 27N EXCEPT LOCALLY
FRESH IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ALONG WITH 3-6 FT SEAS W OF
70W...AND 6-9 FT E OF 70W. THE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

THE RIDGING WILL SLOWLY SINK SSE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DIP INTO THE NW WATERS. THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NW OF THE
AREA...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION ON WED. WEAK LOW PRES
IS EXPECTED TO FORM JUST NE OF THE NE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 31N ON
WED PER MODEL AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS ON WED...AND RACE ENE
DRAGGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH
THU. SW WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH N OF 27N
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS BACK UP TO 5-7 FT. THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE E-SE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS FRI EVENING...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL AND DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT TROUGH WHICH WILL THEN DRIFT BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS
FLORIDA FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SUN.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





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