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000
AGXX40 KNHC 240534
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
134 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM FL BAY WSW TO 21N93W. A SURFACE
LOW IS OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. EXPECT THE LOW TO RAPIDLY LIFT
OUT TO THE NE TODAY AND DRAG THE FRONT SE AGAIN REACHING THE NW
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. N-NE 20-25 KT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SE AND S-CENTRAL GULF WATERS TILL ABOUT NOON TODAY...THEN
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE FAR NW COASTAL WATERS LATE SAT...THEN SHIFT E
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF REACHING THE FL BIG BEND AREA ON SUN
NIGHT WITH A E-W RIDGE BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 3-5
FT ACROSS THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT TUE NIGHT. EXPECT 10-15 KT E-
SE FLOW ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL PASS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SAT...AND LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF
15N ALONG 44W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ON SAT
NIGHT AND SUN...AND PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON MON-TUE. LOW
PRESSURE OVER EXTREME W CUBA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE E STALLING FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS LATE SAT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
NORTHERLY 20-25 KT WINDS/SEAS 4-7 FT WILL SPREAD S THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING NW-N ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS W OF THE DEVELOPING LOW ON SAT. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT...AND IF SO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST THE
FRONTAL REMNANTS TO MOVE W ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALSO MOVING W ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS
ON SUN-TUE WITH THE LOW ACCOMPANIED BY 15-20 KT WINDS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 3163W TO 27N71W THEN BECOMES
STATIONARY TO SE FL. A SURFACE LOW OVER W CUBA WILL MERGE WITH
FRONT EARLY TODAY AND LIFT RAPIDLY NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHILE DRAGGING THE STATIONARY PORTION SE AGAIN. A 20-30 KT WIND
SHIFT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 27N
WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 26N76W AND STRENGTHEN TO A
MINIMAL GALE BY SUNSET TODAY. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE RACING NE
TO NEAR 28N70W AT SUNRISE SAT AND MOVE NE OF THE AREA AT SUNSET
SAT WITH GALE CONDITIONS ALREADY DISSIPATED. BY THE THEN THE
COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N64W TO E CUBA WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM
31N58W TO 25N65W THEN BECOME STATIONARY TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
LATE SUN. THE SOUTHERN PORTION S OF 25N WILL DRIFT W AND
DISSIPATE ON MON WHILE THE NORTHERN SEGMENT CONTINUES E AND
WEAKENS ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 65-55W THROUGH TUE. A RIDGE
WILL BUILD FROM W TO E ALONG 28-29N W OF THE FRONT ON SUN AND
SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING E OFF THE FL COAST NEAR
30N79W ON SUN NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA ON MON
EFFECTIVELY RE-ORIENTATING THE RIDGE SW TO NE FL ON TUE. THIS
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN NE-E 15-20 KT FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS S OF
27N W OF 65W ON MON-TUE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     GALE WARNING SAT.
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 231829
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
229 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO 25N87W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE NOTED PER
SURFACE DATA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO A LINE FROM 27N82W TO 26N90W
TO 20N96W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF WATERS WITH SEAS OF 3-6 FT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
AND SHIFT SE OF THE AREA LATE FRI. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR SE WATERS AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER ON FRI AS THE
FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE GULF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRES NEAR 22.5N87W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SE OF THE LOW CENTER
COVERING MAINLY THE AREA FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 83W-86W. WINDS AND
SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST BY
THE GFS AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE NE INTO THE SW N ATLC BY
FRI MORNING...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT SE OF AREA.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SOME
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND REGIONAL
WATERS. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY...THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI...AND THE W CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH SUN. A
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 41W/42W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TROPICAL N ATLC SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...REACHING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE MON.

MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED E OF 75W PER THE MOST
RECENT WINDSAT PASS AND SURFACE DATA WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5
FT ACCORDING TO AN ALTIMETER PASS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. MODERATE
TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AROUND A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 22.5N87W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT.

THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SINK SE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL LATE FRI...BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT...AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 8
FT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION FROM 23N81W
TO 22N83W TO 16N87W BY SAT MORNING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
BY LATE FRI. THIS SYSTEM HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF REGENERATION IF IT
DOES NOT BECOME ABSORBED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IN TWO
OR THREE DAYS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SURFACE
DATA AND A RECENT WINDSAT PASS DEPICT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS NW OF THE FRONT AND E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE NW OF THE
FRONT...4-5 FT N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT...3-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE REACHING FROM 31N65W TO SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL. A LOW PRES MAY FORM
ALONG THE FRONT ON FRI WITH THE LOW TRACKING TO THE NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEN...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE SAT AND
SUN...REACHING FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT NIGHT AND FROM
30N60W TO EASTERN CUBA SUN NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH MON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR
OR MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DEVELOPING
LOW PRES LATE FRI THROUGH LATE SAT. CURRENTLY...THE GEFS PROBABILITIES
OF GALE FORCE WINDS REACH 10-20 PERCENT ON SAT BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC
WHILE THE SREF PROBABILITIES ONLY SHOW A 5 PERCENT. FOR NOW...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM UNTIL GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER
AGREEMENT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 231829
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
229 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO 25N87W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE NOTED PER
SURFACE DATA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO A LINE FROM 27N82W TO 26N90W
TO 20N96W. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF WATERS WITH SEAS OF 3-6 FT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY
AND SHIFT SE OF THE AREA LATE FRI. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR SE WATERS AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATER ON FRI AS THE
FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM THE GULF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRES NEAR 22.5N87W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SE OF THE LOW CENTER
COVERING MAINLY THE AREA FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 83W-86W. WINDS AND
SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST BY
THE GFS AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE NE INTO THE SW N ATLC BY
FRI MORNING...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT SE OF AREA.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SOME
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND REGIONAL
WATERS. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY...THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI...AND THE W CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH SUN. A
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 41W/42W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TROPICAL N ATLC SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...REACHING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE MON.

MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED E OF 75W PER THE MOST
RECENT WINDSAT PASS AND SURFACE DATA WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 5
FT ACCORDING TO AN ALTIMETER PASS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. MODERATE
TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AROUND A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 22.5N87W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT.

THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SINK SE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL LATE FRI...BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT...AND
DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 8
FT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION FROM 23N81W
TO 22N83W TO 16N87W BY SAT MORNING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
BY LATE FRI. THIS SYSTEM HAS A SMALL CHANCE OF REGENERATION IF IT
DOES NOT BECOME ABSORBED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IN TWO
OR THREE DAYS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. SURFACE
DATA AND A RECENT WINDSAT PASS DEPICT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS NW OF THE FRONT AND E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE NW OF THE
FRONT...4-5 FT N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT...3-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE REACHING FROM 31N65W TO SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL. A LOW PRES MAY FORM
ALONG THE FRONT ON FRI WITH THE LOW TRACKING TO THE NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEN...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE SAT AND
SUN...REACHING FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT NIGHT AND FROM
30N60W TO EASTERN CUBA SUN NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH MON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR
OR MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DEVELOPING
LOW PRES LATE FRI THROUGH LATE SAT. CURRENTLY...THE GEFS PROBABILITIES
OF GALE FORCE WINDS REACH 10-20 PERCENT ON SAT BETWEEN 1200-1800 UTC
WHILE THE SREF PROBABILITIES ONLY SHOW A 5 PERCENT. FOR NOW...THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM UNTIL GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING IN BETTER
AGREEMENT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 230530
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO NEAR 23N95W TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE...WHILE LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE...ARE MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. SEAS
ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND 3-6 FT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF.

THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND ITS INFLUENCE ON WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE GULF WATERS
WILL DECREASE TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE SHIFTING SE OF THE AREA SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SE RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WATERS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST. LATEST NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.
LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH
SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES OVER
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS
ARE IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 4-5 FT OVER
THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.

THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS ON SAT WHERE
IT WILL LINGER AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TROPICAL
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD...ENTERING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI...AND THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SAT. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND AND WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH MON.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH FRI THEN LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT...GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE NW OF THE FRONT...4-5 FT N
OF 27N E OF THE FRONT...3-4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS
OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY SE THROUGH FRI BEFORE STALLING
EARLY FRI ROUGHLY ALONG 27N AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT.
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT NE AND HELP PUSH THE STALLED
FRONT SOUTHWARD TO EXTEND FROM THE NE WATERS TO CENTRAL CUBA BY
SAT THEN STALL FROM NEAR 24N65W TO EASTERN CUBA SUN WHERE IT WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAT THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS. WILL FAVOR THE WEAKER
LOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS BASED ON RECENT
PERFORMANCE.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 221857
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
257 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 22/1800 UTC IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
JUST OFFSHORE OR W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19.3N 92.1W OR
ABOUT 96 NM W-SW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS SLOWLY
MOVING E AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB.
CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED WITH INTENSE SHEAR AND DRY
AIR IMPACTING THE SYSTEM. A VIGOROUS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
DIVING S-SE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EVEN SO...VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED
MAXIMUM SEAS TO 12 FT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION.

MEANWHILE...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA
BAY FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...WHILE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
HAS ENTERED THE FAR NE GULF AND WILL SOON OVERTAKE THE OLD
STATIONARY FRONT. RECENT IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED OBSERVATIONS
SHOW MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN OUTSIDE
OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPRESSION. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT E OF 87W AND
4-7 FT W OF 87W.

THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST HAS THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENING TO A
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM BY 00Z THIS EVENING JUST PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...THEN WEAKENING BACK TO A DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING/SUBSIDING SHORTLY AFTER IT MOVES INLAND. THE
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD EXTENDING FROM
27N82W TO 25N87W TO 25N94W THIS EVENING...THEN FROM 25N81W TO
23.5N87W TO 21N91W BY THU MORNING BEFORE STALLING THROUGH EARLY
FRI. THE FRONT WILL THEN FINALLY PUSH SE OF THE BASIN BY LATE FRI
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT BEHIND
THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN
DIMINISHING TO GENTLE TO MODERATE BASIN-WIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS THE WINDS DIMINISH...THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT
N OF 26N AND 3-5 FT S OF 26N BY SUN...EXCEPT TO 6 FT STILL NEAR
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS (NWPS NOT
AVAILABLE). HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU...THEN LOW-MEDIUM.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE E-SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS
E OF 74W AND MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS W OF
74W...EXCEPT 1-3 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 19N W OF 80W UNDER
AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU NIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE CURRENTLY IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO JUST
W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MAY STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM PRIOR TO MOVING INLAND OVER THE PENINSULA BY EARLY THU...
THEN WILL WEAKEN BACK TO A DEPRESSION AND EMERGE E OF THE YUCATAN
IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN BY FRI MORNING. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL LIKELY STALL
FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY EARLY FRI.
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF
BOTH THE DEPRESSION AND THE COLD FRONT LEADS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST FOR FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT AND THE DEPRESSION...GENTLE
TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS WILL PERSIST WHILE SEAS REMAIN 3-5 FT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT...SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 18N WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN
THU...CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI...AND W CARIBBEAN LATE SAT. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE THE WATERS SAT AFTERNOON
TROUGH SUN. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...ALONG WITH 4-7 FT SEAS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS/ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS (NWPS NOT
AVAILABLE). HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN LOW-MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHWEST WATERS ALONG 30N79W SW TO
30N81W. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND
CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT WITH
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS
REMAINS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE
BAHAMAS...AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WED MORNING...STALLING WESTWARD TO NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA OFFSHORE WATERS. A LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT JUST NE OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING...DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THU MORNING. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BACK INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY
THU NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN IN SUCH STATUS WHEN IT MOVES TO NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS/S OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY/RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 220631
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
231 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

AT 22/0300 UTC RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
LOCATED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 19.4N 92.9W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT. T.D. NINE IS FORECAST TO
INTENSITY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH EARLY TODAY AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS EASTWARD...AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
EVENING. ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW.

ASIDE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE SW TEXAS COAST. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS OUTSIDE THE
WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE. SEAS ARE IN
THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE NW GULF AND 1-3 FT OVER THE NE GULF.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK...AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL BY SAT. WITH THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINE...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH SAT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF T.D. NINE OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHICH WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON THE WINDS AND
SEAS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGH FRI THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. LATEST
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN
DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS
ASSOCIATED TO THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT
RANGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND 4-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DIMINISHES THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO
THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND
BRINGS THE SYSTEM INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY
AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK AS A 30 KT SYSTEM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE INTERACTION OF A FEW OTHER PLAYERS MAKE THIS A
DIFFICULT FORECAST. THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN GULF THIS
WEEKEND AS WELL AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THESE
FEATURES AND POTENTIAL CONVERGENCE OF ENERGY WILL INTERACT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHWEST WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA
DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT WITH LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ARE
IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE WATERS OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS...AND 1-2
FT W OF THE BAHAMAS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA
TO SOUTH FLORIDA THU AFTERNOON...THEN STALL ROUGHLY ALONG 27N BY
LATE FRI. A LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT WHICH WILL
HELP PUSH THE STALLED BOUNDARY SE ON SAT AND EXTEND FROM THE NE
WATERS TO CENTRAL CUBA BY SUN NIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE
FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK...
     TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 211801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
201 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE SW GULF.
LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED DATA INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF...
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...EXCEPT NEAR THE LOW WHERE FRESH TO
STRONG NW-N WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE S OF 21N W OF 94W.

ONE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO EXTENDING
INTO THE FAR NW GULF...WITH A STRONGER AND DEEPER REINFORCING
TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE N GULF COASTAL PLAINS. TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED UP ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF
AHEAD OF THESE UPPER FEATURES.

THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE NE GULF AND
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS WED AS A
COLD FRONT THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WATERS AND SE OF THE AREA BY SAT.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE SW GULF THAT IS STILL FORECAST TO TRACK E-NE.
THERE REMAINS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TWOAT FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME AND
WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
AFTERWARDS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THIS
FEATURE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR THIS LOW TO SHIFT ENE INTO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN INTO THE FAR
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGH FRI THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED DATA REPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE
E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH E-SE WINDS W OF 70W. SEAS ARE 2-4 FT E OF 70W AND 3-6 FT
W OF 70W. MEANWHILE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE IS APPROACHING 50W WITH IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS
ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL
N ATLC WATERS THROUGH WED...THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THU...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL INTERACT WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS.

THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA AS DISCUSSED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...
AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST CYCLE FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE FROM THE GULF
WATERS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS WEEKEND. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THERE WILL BE A CONVERGENCE OF ENERGY INTO
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM SEVERAL DIFFERENT SOURCES...INCLUDING
BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...ENERGY FROM THE LOW...AND ENERGY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE NW PORTION INDICATED BY METAR REPORTS OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NW OF THE FRONT AND MID 70S SE OF
THE FRONT ALONG WITH DEWPOINT DIFFERENCES OF 10-15 DEGREES. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL.
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
E-SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE
BAHAMAS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE NW PORTION THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...THEN WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD AGAIN REACHING 31N73W TO
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WED EVENING...FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU EVENING WITH THE SW HALF OF THE FRONT STALLING
OUT...THEN THE ENTIRE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR
27N65W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA BY FRI MORNING. LOW PRES
MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOW TRACKING TO THE
NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW LEADING TO A LOWERING IN THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
DAY 4-5.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





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