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000
AGXX40 KNHC 261858
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
158 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH ASCAT AND RAPIDSCAT DATA
INDICATE STRONG NW TO N WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE BASIN THIS MORNING...DIMINSHED FROM GALES THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. BOUY AND ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE SEAS ARE STILL 8T O 12 FT
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF HIGH PRES IS ALREADY EVIDENT OVER THE
NW GULF NEAR 27N93W AND WINDS OVER THE NW GULF ARE GENERALLY 5 TO
10 KT. THIS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AHEAD OF REINFORCING FRONT NOW
PUSHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH STATES AND FAR
NE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF STRONG W TO
NW WINDS TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WATERS BY THU MORNING. HIGH
PRES BUILDING NORTH OF AREA BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL KEEP
STRONG NE TO E WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLROIDA AND SE GULF
INTO FRI...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AND BECOMING E WINDS TO 20 KT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WILL PERSIST...WITH SE RETURN FLOW
INCREASING BRIEFLY TO 20 KT OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT. NO SIGNFICANT
DIFFERENCE IN SUFACE MODEL OUTPUT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BY MON.

A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA THIS MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STARTING TO
PENETRATE THE YUCTAN CHANNEL BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MOVE DOWN THE
MEXICAN COAST. ELSEWHERE VARIOUS SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
INDICATED STRONG WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS
MORNING...WITH 15 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS W OF 55W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL 7 TO 9 FT
IN THESE AREAS AS WELL.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI. WEAKENED RIDGING OVER THE NW ATLC
HOWEVER WILL KEEP RELATIVELY LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA INTO SAT. THIS PATTERN WILL START TO REVERSE THIS WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRES OVER THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES SHIFTS E INTO THE
ATLC...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SHOWING GALE
CONDITIONS OFF COLOMBIA BY MON WITH 30 KT WINDS IN THE UKMET...IN
CONSTRAST TO THE PARALLEL GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE LIGHTER WINDS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS A COMPROMISE RELECTING UKMET SOLUTION
JUST BELOW 30 KT FOR MON.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

ASCAT DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRONG WINDS N OF 27N W OF
75W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED OFF THE COAST OF NE
FLORIDA THIS MORNING. WINDS WERE POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OR
AT LEAST THERE WERE GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE GULF STREAM WATERS. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
ACTIVE NEAR THE FRONT AS WELL. JUDGING FROM BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND
THE WINDS...SEAS WERE LIKELY 8 TO 12 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
ELSEWHERE A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG ROUGHLY 27N IS EXITING EASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST AND REACH FROM 31N70W
TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY THU...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO
DIMINISH. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND INTO THE ATLC
TOMORROW...EVENUTALLY MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONT THU NIGHT.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NW WINDS TO THE
WATERS N OF 29N W OF 75W AGAIN ON THU WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
COMBINED FRONT WILL REACH FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO SE CUBA BY FRI
MORNING...THEN STALL FROM 25N65W TO SE CUBA BY EARLY SAT. RIDGING
BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL BUILD OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MAINTAIN
A BAND OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND
TCI SUN INTO MON. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 261858
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
158 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH ASCAT AND RAPIDSCAT DATA
INDICATE STRONG NW TO N WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE BASIN THIS MORNING...DIMINSHED FROM GALES THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. BOUY AND ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE SEAS ARE STILL 8T O 12 FT
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF HIGH PRES IS ALREADY EVIDENT OVER THE
NW GULF NEAR 27N93W AND WINDS OVER THE NW GULF ARE GENERALLY 5 TO
10 KT. THIS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AHEAD OF REINFORCING FRONT NOW
PUSHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH STATES AND FAR
NE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF STRONG W TO
NW WINDS TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND WATERS BY THU MORNING. HIGH
PRES BUILDING NORTH OF AREA BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL KEEP
STRONG NE TO E WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLROIDA AND SE GULF
INTO FRI...DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AND BECOMING E WINDS TO 20 KT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WILL PERSIST...WITH SE RETURN FLOW
INCREASING BRIEFLY TO 20 KT OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT. NO SIGNFICANT
DIFFERENCE IN SUFACE MODEL OUTPUT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BY MON.

A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA THIS MORNING. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE STARTING TO
PENETRATE THE YUCTAN CHANNEL BEHIND THE FRONT...AND MOVE DOWN THE
MEXICAN COAST. ELSEWHERE VARIOUS SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
INDICATED STRONG WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS
MORNING...WITH 15 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS W OF 55W THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEAS WILL 7 TO 9 FT
IN THESE AREAS AS WELL.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH LATE FRI. WEAKENED RIDGING OVER THE NW ATLC
HOWEVER WILL KEEP RELATIVELY LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA INTO SAT. THIS PATTERN WILL START TO REVERSE THIS WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRES OVER THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES SHIFTS E INTO THE
ATLC...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SHOWING GALE
CONDITIONS OFF COLOMBIA BY MON WITH 30 KT WINDS IN THE UKMET...IN
CONSTRAST TO THE PARALLEL GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE LIGHTER WINDS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS A COMPROMISE RELECTING UKMET SOLUTION
JUST BELOW 30 KT FOR MON.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

ASCAT DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRONG WINDS N OF 27N W OF
75W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED OFF THE COAST OF NE
FLORIDA THIS MORNING. WINDS WERE POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OR
AT LEAST THERE WERE GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE GULF STREAM WATERS. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
ACTIVE NEAR THE FRONT AS WELL. JUDGING FROM BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND
THE WINDS...SEAS WERE LIKELY 8 TO 12 FT IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
ELSEWHERE A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG ROUGHLY 27N IS EXITING EASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST AND REACH FROM 31N70W
TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY THU...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO
DIMINISH. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND INTO THE ATLC
TOMORROW...EVENUTALLY MERGING WITH THE PREVIOUS FRONT THU NIGHT.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NW WINDS TO THE
WATERS N OF 29N W OF 75W AGAIN ON THU WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE
COMBINED FRONT WILL REACH FROM JUST E OF BERMUDA TO SE CUBA BY FRI
MORNING...THEN STALL FROM 25N65W TO SE CUBA BY EARLY SAT. RIDGING
BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL BUILD OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MAINTAIN
A BAND OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND
TCI SUN INTO MON. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 260850
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
350 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING SLOWLY SE ACROSS ERN GULF WHILE MORE
QUICKLY ACROSS SE MEXICO AND YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING.
RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOWED NLY GALES SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF SW
GULF GENERALLY S OF 23N...WHILE NWLY WINDS NEAR THE COAST INVOF
VERACRUZ LIKELY NEAR 40 KT. IN FACT...ISLA DE SACRAFICIO OBS TODAY
SHOWED GALES FROM 17Z TO PRESENT WITH A FEW PERIODS OF 40G48 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. A BIT DOWNSTREAM...PEMEX BUOY BMO REPORTING PEAK
SEAS JUST UNDER 5M A COUPLE HOURS AGO...AND HAVE BUMPED UP PEAK
SEAS IN THAT AREA TO MATCH. NNW GALES EXPECTED IN ELONGATED LINE
BEHIND FRONT FROM OFFSHORE OF YUCATAN TO OFFSHORE ZONES W OF
TAMPA AREA...TO SHIFT SE BEHIND FRONT AND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO
AROUND 30 KT BY 12Z AS FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL.

STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUING ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AS JET
DYNAMICS E OF SHARP MID-UPPER TROUGH INTERACT WITH VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE LOWER TROP IN PLACE AHEAD OF FRONT. MIA CURRENTLY IN THE
SOUP AND REPORTING 26/25 C. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN RECENT
GUIDANCE AND THUS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING. GALES ENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN BY 12Z THIS MORNING
WITH FRONT CONTINUING SE TROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRAITS OF
FL 12-18Z WITH NLY FLOW 20-25 KT BUILDING BEHIND IT ACROSS E AND
SE PORTIONS...AND SEAS SUBSIDING VERY SLOWLY. BENIGN SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE INTO N PORTIONS TONIGHT AND INDUCE
REINFORCING PRES GRADIENT TO FRESHEN WINDS ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND
INTO E BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AND FRI...WHILE NLY WINDS AROUND 20 KT
SWEEP BEHIND FRONT ACROSS N PORTIONS. 1034 MB HIGH ACROSS TN
VALLEY BEHIND THIS SECONDARY FRONT TO SHIFT SLOWLY E-SE ACROSS SE
U.S. FRI AND SAT AND GRADUALLY VEER FLOW AS BROAD RIDGE BECOME
WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS BASIN...AND RETURN FLOW 15-20 DEVELOPS
ACROSS TEXAS WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. RIDGE TO INDUCE FRESH ENE
TRADES THROUGH STRAITS AND SE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AND
REDEVELOP SEAS THERE.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS.

LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN E OF 79W...SOUTH OF RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS...WITH
NOCTURNAL MAX DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. BUOYS ARE REPORTING
SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND LIKELY BUILDING
TO 11 FT OFF COLOMBIA. WEAKENING S TO SE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING FRONT...NOW REACHING MMUN.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SE AND REACH FROM W CENTRAL CUBA ALONG
80W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS BY 00Z TONIGHT...THEN HANG UP ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND MOVE SLOWLY SE ACROSS NW CARIB AND
CUBA...REACHING E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS BY 00Z SAT BEFORE STALLING
AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NLY WINDS AROUND 25
KT WILL SPILL INTO NW CARIB BEHIND FRONT TODAY...WITH FEW ISOLATED
SPOTS TO 30 KT MAINLY W PORTIONS WHERE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE
PREVAILS. HOWEVER...SECONDARY BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING WILL
INCREASE RES GRADIENT TONIGHT THROUGH THU W PORTIONS...WITH NNE
WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT...AND GFS PARALLEL RUN SHOWING SMALL
SPOTS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS THU EVENING AND
NIGHT...AND WINDS 30 KT BEHIND FRONT IN LEE OF E CENTRAL CUBA.
HAVE HAND EDITING WINDS TO NUDGE IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT NO GALES
IN HONDURAS ATTM. WINDS AND SEAS TO THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS
W HALF OF BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GULF AND W ATLC RIDGE
SHIFTS E AND FLOW ON S SIDE VEERS TO NE THEN ENE BY MON. HIGHER
RES GFS PARALLEL SUGGESTING NOCTURNAL MAX OFF COLOMBIA REACHING
GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PASSES DIRECTLY N OF AREA. MODELS
CONTINUE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...BUT WITH SAME BIASES OF RECENT
DAYS WITH EUROPEAN MODELS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SE OF GFS FRONTAL
POSITION.

MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF INDUCED LLVL INVERTED TROUGHS ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLC TO THE E HAVE CREATED A STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING SW TO THE NE CARIB AND ARE AGAIN
PUMPING UP SEAS MOVING INTO THE AREA...WITH BUOY 41044 NOW AT 12
FT. THESE TWO TROUGHS WILL SHIFT W AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SE
ACROSS THE W ATLC NEXT 48-72 HOURS...WITH RIDGE SHIFTING E AND
GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THU.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

ATLC RIDGING DOMINATING THE WRN BASIN THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT E TODAY THROUGH FRI AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS FAR NW WATERS THIS
MORNING...WITH MODELS STILL INDICATING 35-50 KT LLVL SLY JET AHEAD
OF FRONT THIS MORNING...AND SLY GALES EXPECTED TO WORK DOWN TO
THE SURFACE IN A NARROW BAND E OF FRONT 09-18Z BEFORE SHIFTING N
OF AREA. SFC LOW LONG FRONT ALONG SC COAST WILL MOVE NNE ALONG
FRONT TODAY...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE NW GALES BEHIND FRONT...AND NW WINDS 25-30 KT EXPECTED
BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NW PORTIONS EARLY TODAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO SOLID 25 KT INTO THE AFTERNOON. FRONT TO RESUME
MOVING SE THIS MORNING...REACHING 31N73W TO W CENTRAL CUBA ALONG
80W BY 00Z TONIGHT...AND 27N65W TO E CUBA BY 00Z SAT. WINDS BEHIND
FRONT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT EXCEPT ACROSS STRAITS
OF FL...BEFORE SECONDARY BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS NW PORTIONS EARLY
THU AND INCREASES GRADIENT AGAIN FOR SECOND PULSE OF BUILDING NW-N
WAVE ENERGY. RIDGE TO SHIFT E OFF OF E COAST OVER WEEKEND WITH
WINDS QUICKLY VEERING NE SAT AND ENE TO E SUN...WHEN TRADES S OF
25-26N WILL FRESHEN TO 20-25 KT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 251844
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
144 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TONIGHT...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE
USUAL AREA OFF VERACRUZ BY THIS AFTERNOON. GALES ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ERUPTING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF...NEAR A 1012 MB LOW THAT HAS
FORMED NEAR 27N87W. AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT...EXPECT POCKETS OF CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE N
CENTRAL AND NE GULF...PRODUCING OCCASIONALLY STRONG GUSTS.

WHILE THERE REMAINS HIGH CERTAINTY AMONG MAJOR MODELS THAT
THERE WILL BE GALES OVER MUCH OF THE GULF IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXTENT OF THE GALES HOWEVER AS THE
LATEST GFS...GFS PARALLEL AND UKMET ARE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN
EARLIER AND DO NOT SHOW GALES REACHING OFFSHORE ZONE GMZ112 IN THE
SE GULF TONIGHT AS EARLIER DEPICTED. THE SREF IS ALSO NOT
INDICATING GALES IN THIS ZONE...BUT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER FORECASTS AND INCLUDES A SMALL AREA OF
GALES IN THE NW PORTION OF THIS ZONE. THE RATIONALE IS THAT THE
LOOP CURRENT REACHES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS ZONE
OFFERING EFFICIENT MIXING OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE
SURFACE.

HIGH PRES OVER TEXAS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND WED AHEAD
OF REINFORCING FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.THE
REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES
THROUGH EARLY THU...POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE FAR NE GULF. STRONGER
HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BUILD OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...MAINTAINING STRONG NE TO E WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND SE GULF THROUGH EARLY FRI. WINDS AND SEAS IN THESE
AREAS DIMINISH FRI THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES MOVES E TO THE
CAROLINAS...ALLOWING FRESH SE RETURN OVER THE TEXAS COAST.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...SOUTH OF RIDGING OVER THE
BAHAMAS...WITH NOCTURNAL MAX DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. BUOYS
ARE REPORTING SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND
LIKELY BUILDING 11-12 FT OFF COLOMBIA. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

A STRONG ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS
WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADES ACROSS BASIN E OF 80W AND FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE A GULF
OF MEXICO COLD FRONT BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY ERODE W PORTION OF
RIDGE AND GRADIENT RELAXES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS SPREADING S
THROUGH THE CHANNEL AND OFFSHORE OF BELIZE. FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL
CUBA TO CENTRAL GULF OF HONDURAS BY 00Z THU...AND FINALLY STALLING
FROM E CENTRAL CUBA TO NE COAST OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT. AS
SECONDARY FRONT DROPS INTO N GULF EARLY THU...PRES GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS NW PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT AND INCREASE
WINDS 25-30 KT FROM OFFSHORE OF BELIZE INTO GULF OF HONDURAS WITH
SEAS BUILDING 10-12 FT THROUGH FRI. THE STRONG WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF FRONT...WITH EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUING SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND SE OF GFS.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ATLC RIDGING CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND MAINTAIN
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND INTO FAR SE BAHAMAS.
LOW LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND
AID IN PRODUCING STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND A LONG FETCH OF NE
WINDS 20-25 KT INTO WATERS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WED
NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF NE FLORIDA AND THE RIDGE
WEAKENS THROUGH THU.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF NE FL COAST LATER TODAY AND
MEANDER THERE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG
FRONT RACES NE ACROSS N HALF OF FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH WED
MORNING AND DEEPENS ACROSS W ATLC WED. MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH
AS EARLIER SHOWING GALES OFF N OF 30N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT GIVEN THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVER THE GULF STREAM
REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG SUSTAINED GALES OR AT LEAST FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

A REINFORCING FRONT WILL CATCH UP TO THE INITIAL MEANDERING FRONT
WED AND BEGIN TO PUSH IT SE...REACHING 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA
ALONG 80W BY 00Z THU AND EVENTUALLY STALLING AND BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE FROM 25N65W TO E CENTRAL CUBA SAT EVENING. NW WINDS
MAINLY 20-25 KT EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT W OF 75W WED. RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK WITH NE TO E TRADES
FRESHENING S OF 25-26N SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E
INTO W ATLC.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W
 GALE WARNING EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 250905
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
405 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS
MORNING BUT RACING MORE QUICKLY DOWN THE MEXICAN COASTLINE. FRONT
APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM FL PANHANDLE NEAR KAAF ACROSS NW HALF OF
BASIN TO NEAR 42055 THEN SSE TO MEXICAN COAST ALMOST TO MMMT.
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH VERACRUZ IN PAST FEW HOURS WITH COASTAL
OBS SHOWING WINDS 20-25 KT THERE. AN EARLY EVENING ALTIMETER PASS
ALONG ABOUT 97W SHOWED SEAS 7-10 FT S OF 24.5N WITH PEAK OF 10 FT
OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO...WHERE LATE EVENING ASCAT PASS SHOWED N WINDS
25 KT. WAVE MODELS NOT GENERATING SEAS QUICKLY ENOUGH AND HAVE
ATTEMPTED TO HAND EDIT THROUGH FIRST 18 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOW FORWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT...REACHING FROM
BIG BEND REGION TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 12Z...THEN MEANDER
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LLVL VORT DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT
TONIGHT ACROSS NE PORTIONS THEN MOVES NE ACROSS FL AND INTO SW N
ATLC WED MORNING...WITH FRONT PUSHING SE AS LOW LIFTS OUT. I HAVE
NOT DEPICTED LOW IN SFC PROGS AS IMPACTS NOT SIGNIFICANT ACROSS
GULF WATERS...BUT LOW TO DEEPEN QUICKLY ACROSS SW N ATLC WED
YIELDING GALES THERE.

MODELS HINTING AT GALES BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY W OF VERACRUZ WITH
SREF SHOWING HIGH PROGS THEN...BEFORE GALES LIGHT UP NARROW ZONE
BEHIND FRONT AND ACROSS MOST OF BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST GALES TO END AROUND 12S WED AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGHYUCATAN
CHANNEL AND STARTS TO CROSS STRAITS OF FL...WITH NLY FLOW THEN
SLOWLY ABATING ACROSS THE BASIN. PEAK SEAS 12-15 FT WILL FILL UP
MUCH OF BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING AND WILL BE
GENERALLY 9-12 FT ELSEWHERE BEHIND FRONT THROUGH WED MORNING.
FRONT EXPECTED TO CLEAR SE PART OF BASIN BY 18Z WED WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH DROPPING INTO NW PORTIONS BEFORE IT IS
OVERTAKEN BY DRY SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED NIGHT AND
THU...WHICH WILL REINFORCE PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS BEHIND FRONT
ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL. STRONG NE TO E
WINDS WILL PERSIST HOWEVER THROUGHOUT THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH FRI...AGAINST THE FLORIDA
CURRENT KEEPING SEAS AT LEAST 8 FT OFF NW CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL INTO EARLY SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THE GULF BY LATE SAT.

THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS
OVER THE NE GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS.

LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...SOUTH OF RIDGING OVER THE
BAHAMAS...WITH NOCTURNAL MAX DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. BUOYS
ARE REPORTING SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND
LIKELY BUILDING 11-12 FT OFF COLOMBIA ATTM. MODERATE E TO SE
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

A STRONG ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW INTO CENTRALBAHAMAS
WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADES ACROSS BASIN E OF 80W AND FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE GULF
OF MEXICO COLD FRONT BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY ERODE W PORTION OF
RIDGE AND GRADIENT RELAXES. FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL
WED 06-12Z ALLOWING NLY WINDS 25-30 KT TO SPREAD S THROUGH THE
CHANNEL AND OFFSHORE OF BELIZE. FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL CUBA TO
CENTRAL GULF OF HONDURAS BY 00Z THU AND FINALLY STALL E CENTRAL
CUBA TO NE COAST OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT. AS SECONDARY FRONT DROPS
INTO N GULF EARLY THU...PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS NW PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT AND INCREASE WINDS 25-30 KT FROM
OFFSHORE OF BELIZE INTO GULF OF HONDURAS WITH SEAS BUILDING 10-12
FT THROUGH FRI. THE STRONG WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH SAT
AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
EAST. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
FRONT...WITH EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUING SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SE OF
GFS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

ATLC RIDGING CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND MAINTAIN
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND INTO FAR SE BAHAMAS.
LLVL TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC WILL SHIFT WWD AND AID IN
PRODUCING STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND LONG FETCH OF NE WINDS 20-25 KT
INTO SE PORTIONS TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT ENTERS
REGION AND RIDGE WEAKENS THU.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF NE FL COAST EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MEANDER THERE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK LLVL VORT ALONG FRONT
RACES NE ACROSS N HALF OF FL TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING AND
DEEPENS ACROSS W ATLC WED. MODELS SUGGEST BL FLOW 35-50 KT AHEAD
OF THE LOW EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS NW PORTIONS...AND I WILL
RELUCTANTLY ISSUED A BRIEF 6 HOUR MINIMAL GALE N OF 29N THERE.
SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE TO THEN CATCH UP TO MEANDERING FRONT WED
AND BEGIN TO PUSH IT SE...REACHING 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG
80W BY 00Z THU AND EVENTUALLY STALLING AND BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE
FROM 25N65W TO E CENTRAL CUBA SAT EVENING. NW WINDS MAINLY 20-25
KT EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT W OF 75W WED...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF
25-30 KT OFFSHORE OF JAX WED MORNING...WHICH WILL LARGELY AFFECT
THEIR COASTAL ZONES. W T E RIDGING THEN WILL DOMINATE THE AREA
THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK WITH NE TO E TRADES FRESHENING S OF
25-26N SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E INTO W ATLC.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     GALE WARNING WED.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 250905
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
405 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS
MORNING BUT RACING MORE QUICKLY DOWN THE MEXICAN COASTLINE. FRONT
APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM FL PANHANDLE NEAR KAAF ACROSS NW HALF OF
BASIN TO NEAR 42055 THEN SSE TO MEXICAN COAST ALMOST TO MMMT.
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH VERACRUZ IN PAST FEW HOURS WITH COASTAL
OBS SHOWING WINDS 20-25 KT THERE. AN EARLY EVENING ALTIMETER PASS
ALONG ABOUT 97W SHOWED SEAS 7-10 FT S OF 24.5N WITH PEAK OF 10 FT
OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO...WHERE LATE EVENING ASCAT PASS SHOWED N WINDS
25 KT. WAVE MODELS NOT GENERATING SEAS QUICKLY ENOUGH AND HAVE
ATTEMPTED TO HAND EDIT THROUGH FIRST 18 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOW FORWARD PROGRESS OVERNIGHT...REACHING FROM
BIG BEND REGION TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 12Z...THEN MEANDER
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LLVL VORT DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT
TONIGHT ACROSS NE PORTIONS THEN MOVES NE ACROSS FL AND INTO SW N
ATLC WED MORNING...WITH FRONT PUSHING SE AS LOW LIFTS OUT. I HAVE
NOT DEPICTED LOW IN SFC PROGS AS IMPACTS NOT SIGNIFICANT ACROSS
GULF WATERS...BUT LOW TO DEEPEN QUICKLY ACROSS SW N ATLC WED
YIELDING GALES THERE.

MODELS HINTING AT GALES BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY W OF VERACRUZ WITH
SREF SHOWING HIGH PROGS THEN...BEFORE GALES LIGHT UP NARROW ZONE
BEHIND FRONT AND ACROSS MOST OF BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z TONIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST GALES TO END AROUND 12S WED AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGHYUCATAN
CHANNEL AND STARTS TO CROSS STRAITS OF FL...WITH NLY FLOW THEN
SLOWLY ABATING ACROSS THE BASIN. PEAK SEAS 12-15 FT WILL FILL UP
MUCH OF BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING AND WILL BE
GENERALLY 9-12 FT ELSEWHERE BEHIND FRONT THROUGH WED MORNING.
FRONT EXPECTED TO CLEAR SE PART OF BASIN BY 18Z WED WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH DROPPING INTO NW PORTIONS BEFORE IT IS
OVERTAKEN BY DRY SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED NIGHT AND
THU...WHICH WILL REINFORCE PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS BEHIND FRONT
ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL. STRONG NE TO E
WINDS WILL PERSIST HOWEVER THROUGHOUT THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH FRI...AGAINST THE FLORIDA
CURRENT KEEPING SEAS AT LEAST 8 FT OFF NW CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL INTO EARLY SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE FLOW WILL
DOMINATE THE GULF BY LATE SAT.

THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS
OVER THE NE GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS.

LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...SOUTH OF RIDGING OVER THE
BAHAMAS...WITH NOCTURNAL MAX DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. BUOYS
ARE REPORTING SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND
LIKELY BUILDING 11-12 FT OFF COLOMBIA ATTM. MODERATE E TO SE
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

A STRONG ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ATLC SW INTO CENTRALBAHAMAS
WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADES ACROSS BASIN E OF 80W AND FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH EARLY WED BEFORE GULF
OF MEXICO COLD FRONT BEGIN TO SIGNIFICANTLY ERODE W PORTION OF
RIDGE AND GRADIENT RELAXES. FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL
WED 06-12Z ALLOWING NLY WINDS 25-30 KT TO SPREAD S THROUGH THE
CHANNEL AND OFFSHORE OF BELIZE. FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL CUBA TO
CENTRAL GULF OF HONDURAS BY 00Z THU AND FINALLY STALL E CENTRAL
CUBA TO NE COAST OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT. AS SECONDARY FRONT DROPS
INTO N GULF EARLY THU...PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS NW PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT AND INCREASE WINDS 25-30 KT FROM
OFFSHORE OF BELIZE INTO GULF OF HONDURAS WITH SEAS BUILDING 10-12
FT THROUGH FRI. THE STRONG WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH SAT
AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
EAST. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
FRONT...WITH EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUING SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SE OF
GFS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

ATLC RIDGING CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND MAINTAIN
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND INTO FAR SE BAHAMAS.
LLVL TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC WILL SHIFT WWD AND AID IN
PRODUCING STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND LONG FETCH OF NE WINDS 20-25 KT
INTO SE PORTIONS TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT ENTERS
REGION AND RIDGE WEAKENS THU.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF NE FL COAST EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MEANDER THERE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK LLVL VORT ALONG FRONT
RACES NE ACROSS N HALF OF FL TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING AND
DEEPENS ACROSS W ATLC WED. MODELS SUGGEST BL FLOW 35-50 KT AHEAD
OF THE LOW EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS NW PORTIONS...AND I WILL
RELUCTANTLY ISSUED A BRIEF 6 HOUR MINIMAL GALE N OF 29N THERE.
SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE TO THEN CATCH UP TO MEANDERING FRONT WED
AND BEGIN TO PUSH IT SE...REACHING 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG
80W BY 00Z THU AND EVENTUALLY STALLING AND BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE
FROM 25N65W TO E CENTRAL CUBA SAT EVENING. NW WINDS MAINLY 20-25
KT EXPECTED BEHIND FRONT W OF 75W WED...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD OF
25-30 KT OFFSHORE OF JAX WED MORNING...WHICH WILL LARGELY AFFECT
THEIR COASTAL ZONES. W T E RIDGING THEN WILL DOMINATE THE AREA
THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK WITH NE TO E TRADES FRESHENING S OF
25-26N SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E INTO W ATLC.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
.GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     GALE WARNING WED.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 241905
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

NW WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE NW GULF CURRENTLY...BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT REACHES FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SE AND REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AREA TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY TUE.

THE MAIN ISSUE BY LATE TUE WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF GALE FORCE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON SHOWING A
LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING RAPIDLY NE AHEAD OF
DEEP LAYER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE AND WED. THE LOW PRES WILL ALLOW
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NE GULF. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER
RELATIVELY WARMER LOOP CURRENT WATERS WILL MIX STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. AN ARRAY OF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT INCLUDING THE
GFS...GFS PARALLEL...UKMET. GFS ENSEMBLE AND SREF PROBABILITIES
FOR GALES IN ALONG THE FRONT REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH AS WELL. THE ONLY
HOLD OUT GALES IN THE CENTRAL AND NE GULF FOR TUE NIGHT IS THE
00Z ECMWF WHICH IS USUALLY WEAKER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. BUT EVEN
THE ECMWF INDICATES GALES OFF VERACRUZ IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE
FRONT BY TUE NIGHT. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF TUE NIGHT AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...EVEN IF SUSTAINED
WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE NOT REACHED...FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
ARE LIKELY OVER THE NE GULF TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.

THE LOW PRES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NE OF THE GULF THROUGH EARLY
WED...LEAVING THE TRAILING FRONT TO SAG THROUGH THE SE GULF
THROUGH EARLY WED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THU FROM
THE NW THROUGH SE GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NW GULF
BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PERSIST HOWEVER
THROUGHOUT THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
THROUGH FRI...AGAINST THE FLORIDA CURRENT KEEPING SEAS AT LEAST 8
FT OFF NW CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO EARLY SAT. MODERATE TO
FRESH E TO SE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GULF BY LATE SAT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...SOUTH OF RIDGING OVER THE
BAHAMAS. BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF UP TO 10 FT IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE THE EXCEPTION OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY LATE TUE AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN STARTING WED WITH SEAS TO FOLLOW
THROUGH THU. THE FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY EARLY
WED FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL OUTPUT CONCERNING THE PROBABILITY OF
GALES IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE THU. THE GFS HAS REVERSED
COURSE AND IS AGAIN SHOWING GALES FOR THEN...BUT THIS IS NOT
REFLECTED IN OTHER OUTPUT. WILL HOLD 30 KT FOR LATE THU IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. NWPS AND MWW3 ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT INDICATED
SEAS TO 12 FT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI. THE STRONG WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF 28N W OF 77W ON ASCAT DATA THIS MORNING
APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED ACCORDING TO SURROUNDING BUOY DATA.
STRONG TRADES WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE NOTED S OF 22N HOWEVER TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REACHING FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRES
AREA NEAR 35N60W THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SEAS TO 9 FT ARE
NOTED ON BUOYS S OF 22N. BUOY ALSO SUGGEST EAST SWELL IS
CONTRIBUTING TO HIGHER SEAS S OF 24N INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL EMERGE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY EARLY WED. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA BY
THU AFTERNOON. FRESH NW TO NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW...WITH FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OVER THE BAHAMAS S OF 25N AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT N OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT DRIFTS
FARTHER EAST AND STALLS FRI INTO SAT...BUT VARIOUS WAVE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS TO 8 FT WILL PERSIST W OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE
SAT. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT ON SENSABLE SURFACE
WEATHER.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY...
     GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
     GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W...
     GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
     GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





000
AGXX40 KNHC 241905
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

NW WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE NW GULF CURRENTLY...BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT REACHES FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SE AND REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AREA TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY TUE.

THE MAIN ISSUE BY LATE TUE WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF GALE FORCE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON SHOWING A
LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING RAPIDLY NE AHEAD OF
DEEP LAYER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE AND WED. THE LOW PRES WILL ALLOW
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NE GULF. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER
RELATIVELY WARMER LOOP CURRENT WATERS WILL MIX STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. AN ARRAY OF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE FRONT INCLUDING THE
GFS...GFS PARALLEL...UKMET. GFS ENSEMBLE AND SREF PROBABILITIES
FOR GALES IN ALONG THE FRONT REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH AS WELL. THE ONLY
HOLD OUT GALES IN THE CENTRAL AND NE GULF FOR TUE NIGHT IS THE
00Z ECMWF WHICH IS USUALLY WEAKER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. BUT EVEN
THE ECMWF INDICATES GALES OFF VERACRUZ IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE
FRONT BY TUE NIGHT. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE GULF TUE NIGHT AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...EVEN IF SUSTAINED
WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE NOT REACHED...FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
ARE LIKELY OVER THE NE GULF TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED.

THE LOW PRES WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NE OF THE GULF THROUGH EARLY
WED...LEAVING THE TRAILING FRONT TO SAG THROUGH THE SE GULF
THROUGH EARLY WED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THU FROM
THE NW THROUGH SE GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NW GULF
BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PERSIST HOWEVER
THROUGHOUT THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
THROUGH FRI...AGAINST THE FLORIDA CURRENT KEEPING SEAS AT LEAST 8
FT OFF NW CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO EARLY SAT. MODERATE TO
FRESH E TO SE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GULF BY LATE SAT.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THU THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...SOUTH OF RIDGING OVER THE
BAHAMAS. BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF UP TO 10 FT IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE THE EXCEPTION OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY LATE TUE AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN STARTING WED WITH SEAS TO FOLLOW
THROUGH THU. THE FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY EARLY
WED FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL OUTPUT CONCERNING THE PROBABILITY OF
GALES IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE THU. THE GFS HAS REVERSED
COURSE AND IS AGAIN SHOWING GALES FOR THEN...BUT THIS IS NOT
REFLECTED IN OTHER OUTPUT. WILL HOLD 30 KT FOR LATE THU IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. NWPS AND MWW3 ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT INDICATED
SEAS TO 12 FT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI. THE STRONG WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NWPS
BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF 28N W OF 77W ON ASCAT DATA THIS MORNING
APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED ACCORDING TO SURROUNDING BUOY DATA.
STRONG TRADES WITH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE NOTED S OF 22N HOWEVER TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REACHING FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRES
AREA NEAR 35N60W THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SEAS TO 9 FT ARE
NOTED ON BUOYS S OF 22N. BUOY ALSO SUGGEST EAST SWELL IS
CONTRIBUTING TO HIGHER SEAS S OF 24N INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL EMERGE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST BY EARLY WED. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA BY
THU AFTERNOON. FRESH NW TO NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW...WITH FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS OVER THE BAHAMAS S OF 25N AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND
THE FRONT N OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT DRIFTS
FARTHER EAST AND STALLS FRI INTO SAT...BUT VARIOUS WAVE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS TO 8 FT WILL PERSIST W OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE
SAT. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT ON SENSABLE SURFACE
WEATHER.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY...
     GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
     GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W...
     GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
     GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 240820
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
320 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

DEEP LAYERED VORT HAS LIFTED NE AND OUT OF REGION TONIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ALSO SHIFTING NE AND INTO SW N ATLC. LIGHT
TO MODERATE S TO SW FLOW GENERALLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ATTM
WITH PEAK SEAS 7-8 FT OFFSHORE OF THE FL PANHANDLE IN LINGERING
SSW WIND SWELL FROM TODAY.

NEXT FRONT NOW APPROACHING TEXAS COAST AND WILL SHIFT RATHER
QUICKLY SE AND REACH FROM MSY TO JUST S OF BRO BY 12Z. MODELS
SUGGESTING SCT CONVECTION ACROSS NE PORTIONS AHEAD OF FRONT IN
LOW-MID LVL SW FLOW. EXPECT NLY WINDS AROUND 25 KT DIRECTLY BEHIND
FRONT THIS MORNING SPILLING S DOWN MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS...
REACHING VERACRUZ BY 00Z MON BEFORE FRONT STALLS TEMPORARILY
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON FROM NRN FL TO WRN BAY OF
CAMPECHE...WHILE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS. MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM RECENT RUNS AND STILL
SHOW MODEST DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT...WITH GFS SHOWING
MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGHING THAN EURO MODELS ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE
AHEAD OF FRONT TUE...WHICH HOLDS FRONT FARTHER W AND ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER TO BLAST IN GALES TUE AFTERNOON-EVENING. GEFS IS SOMEWHAT
MORE IN LINE WITH EURO MODELS DURING THIS TIME AND HAVE ADJUSTED
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. GALES EXPECTED ACROSS MEXICAN COASTAL
WATERS S OF 24N BY 18Z TUE THEN SPREADING IN BROAD LINE ABOUT 120
NM NW OF NEARLY ENTIRE LENGTH OF FRONT THROUGH WED NIGHT AS FRONT
CONTINUES SE ACROSS BASIN...REACHING FROM NEAR NAPLES THROUGH
YUCATAN CHANNEL BY 12Z WED. SEAS 12-16 FT FORECAST IN THIS ZONE OF
STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND FRONT THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE
WIND AND SEAS GRADUALLY ABATE ACROSS ALL BUT SE PORTIONS INTO FRI.
ISOLATED AREAS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE WITHIN GALE ZONE TUE NIGHT-WED
MORNING...WITH GALES ENDING BY 18Z WED.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WINDS HAVE SPREAD WWD TO 76W THIS MORNING
PER RECENT ASCAT PASSES...WITH NOCTURNAL MAX TO NEAR 30 KT
EXPECTED ATTM OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND 25-30 KT JUST S OF
HISPANIOLA...WHERE SEAS 10-11 FT ARE LIKELY OCCURRING. ATLC HIGH
WILL SHIFT NE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAINTAIN RIDGE TO SW AND TO
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO MAINTAIN STRONG PRES GRADIENT N OF LOW-MID LVL
TROUGH MOVING WWD ACROSS CENTRAL SUB TROPICAL ATLC...BACKING WINDS
AND REBUILDING SEAS 9-11 FT AND INTO NE CARIB TODAY THROUGH WED
MORNING BEFORE RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT.

TRADES HAVE OPENED UP INTO GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NW PORTIONS IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT STRONG FRONT BUT WILL DIMINISH SOME TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL BY
12Z WED. EURO MODELS STILL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR NLY GALES BEHIND
FRONT SPREADING FROM YUCATAN S INTO GULF OF HONDURAS WED AND WED
NIGHT WHILE GFS HOLD WINDS AT 30 KT. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO GFS
ATTM AND AM NOT ADVERTISING GALES...FOR NOW. FRONT EXPECTED TO
REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO N CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS BY THU
NIGHT WHERE IT WILL GENERALLY STALL AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
WEEKEND. STRONG NELY FLOW 20-25 KT BEHIND FRONT FORECAST TO
DOMINATE NW PORTIONS THU THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH SEAS PEAKING AT
8-11 FT FRI BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING INTO SAT. NEW HIGHER RES
PARALLEL RUN OF GFS SHOWING SMALL AREAS TO 30 KT IN GULF OF
HONDURAS LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE PEAK
WINDS TO 28 KT ATTM THERE IN GRIDS AND WILL WAIT ON FUTURE RUNS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING BEGINNING TO LIFT N AS
WARM FRONT W OF 65W AS SE TO S NOW PREVAIL ACROSS ALL BUT SE
PORTIONS. STRONG FLOW TO 30 KT OCCURRING PAST 24 HOURS NE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE GENERATED SE SWELL ACROSS MUCH OF AREA W OF
70W...WITH SEAS 8-10 FT ATTM N AND NE OF BAHAMAS. ATLC RIDGE FROM
CENTRAL PORTIONS TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL HOLD THROUGH EARLY WED
AND STRENGTHEN NE TO E TRADES AND TRADE WIND SWELL MOVING INTO SE
PORTIONS THROUGH LATE WED. MEANWHILE...NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND TUE AND MOVE INTO FAR NW
WATERS TUE AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL STALL THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE
SECONDARY PUSH WED MORNING MOVES FRONT THROUGH MOST OF FLORIDA...
REACHING FROM NEAR 31N74.5W TO 22.5N80W BY 00Z THU. ATLC RIDGE TO
HELP CREATE STRONG SLY FLOW N OF 28N AHEAD OF FRONT WED...WHILE NW
WINDS 25-30 KT EXPECTED BRIEFLY WED NW PORTIONS AS FRONT SHIFTS
SE...WITH PRES GRADIENT DECREASING THROUGH THU. FRONT TO CONTINUE
SE AND REACH FROM NEAR 25N65W TO E CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.




000
AGXX40 KNHC 240820
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
320 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

DEEP LAYERED VORT HAS LIFTED NE AND OUT OF REGION TONIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ALSO SHIFTING NE AND INTO SW N ATLC. LIGHT
TO MODERATE S TO SW FLOW GENERALLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ATTM
WITH PEAK SEAS 7-8 FT OFFSHORE OF THE FL PANHANDLE IN LINGERING
SSW WIND SWELL FROM TODAY.

NEXT FRONT NOW APPROACHING TEXAS COAST AND WILL SHIFT RATHER
QUICKLY SE AND REACH FROM MSY TO JUST S OF BRO BY 12Z. MODELS
SUGGESTING SCT CONVECTION ACROSS NE PORTIONS AHEAD OF FRONT IN
LOW-MID LVL SW FLOW. EXPECT NLY WINDS AROUND 25 KT DIRECTLY BEHIND
FRONT THIS MORNING SPILLING S DOWN MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS...
REACHING VERACRUZ BY 00Z MON BEFORE FRONT STALLS TEMPORARILY
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON FROM NRN FL TO WRN BAY OF
CAMPECHE...WHILE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS. MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM RECENT RUNS AND STILL
SHOW MODEST DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT...WITH GFS SHOWING
MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGHING THAN EURO MODELS ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE
AHEAD OF FRONT TUE...WHICH HOLDS FRONT FARTHER W AND ABOUT 6 HOURS
SLOWER TO BLAST IN GALES TUE AFTERNOON-EVENING. GEFS IS SOMEWHAT
MORE IN LINE WITH EURO MODELS DURING THIS TIME AND HAVE ADJUSTED
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION. GALES EXPECTED ACROSS MEXICAN COASTAL
WATERS S OF 24N BY 18Z TUE THEN SPREADING IN BROAD LINE ABOUT 120
NM NW OF NEARLY ENTIRE LENGTH OF FRONT THROUGH WED NIGHT AS FRONT
CONTINUES SE ACROSS BASIN...REACHING FROM NEAR NAPLES THROUGH
YUCATAN CHANNEL BY 12Z WED. SEAS 12-16 FT FORECAST IN THIS ZONE OF
STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND FRONT THROUGH WED NIGHT BEFORE
WIND AND SEAS GRADUALLY ABATE ACROSS ALL BUT SE PORTIONS INTO FRI.
ISOLATED AREAS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE WITHIN GALE ZONE TUE NIGHT-WED
MORNING...WITH GALES ENDING BY 18Z WED.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WINDS HAVE SPREAD WWD TO 76W THIS MORNING
PER RECENT ASCAT PASSES...WITH NOCTURNAL MAX TO NEAR 30 KT
EXPECTED ATTM OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND 25-30 KT JUST S OF
HISPANIOLA...WHERE SEAS 10-11 FT ARE LIKELY OCCURRING. ATLC HIGH
WILL SHIFT NE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAINTAIN RIDGE TO SW AND TO
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO MAINTAIN STRONG PRES GRADIENT N OF LOW-MID LVL
TROUGH MOVING WWD ACROSS CENTRAL SUB TROPICAL ATLC...BACKING WINDS
AND REBUILDING SEAS 9-11 FT AND INTO NE CARIB TODAY THROUGH WED
MORNING BEFORE RIDGE BEGINS TO RETREAT.

TRADES HAVE OPENED UP INTO GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NW PORTIONS IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT STRONG FRONT BUT WILL DIMINISH SOME TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO YUCATAN CHANNEL BY
12Z WED. EURO MODELS STILL SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR NLY GALES BEHIND
FRONT SPREADING FROM YUCATAN S INTO GULF OF HONDURAS WED AND WED
NIGHT WHILE GFS HOLD WINDS AT 30 KT. WILL FOLLOW CLOSER TO GFS
ATTM AND AM NOT ADVERTISING GALES...FOR NOW. FRONT EXPECTED TO
REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO N CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS BY THU
NIGHT WHERE IT WILL GENERALLY STALL AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
WEEKEND. STRONG NELY FLOW 20-25 KT BEHIND FRONT FORECAST TO
DOMINATE NW PORTIONS THU THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH SEAS PEAKING AT
8-11 FT FRI BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING INTO SAT. NEW HIGHER RES
PARALLEL RUN OF GFS SHOWING SMALL AREAS TO 30 KT IN GULF OF
HONDURAS LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE PEAK
WINDS TO 28 KT ATTM THERE IN GRIDS AND WILL WAIT ON FUTURE RUNS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WATERS THIS MORNING BEGINNING TO LIFT N AS
WARM FRONT W OF 65W AS SE TO S NOW PREVAIL ACROSS ALL BUT SE
PORTIONS. STRONG FLOW TO 30 KT OCCURRING PAST 24 HOURS NE OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE GENERATED SE SWELL ACROSS MUCH OF AREA W OF
70W...WITH SEAS 8-10 FT ATTM N AND NE OF BAHAMAS. ATLC RIDGE FROM
CENTRAL PORTIONS TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL HOLD THROUGH EARLY WED
AND STRENGTHEN NE TO E TRADES AND TRADE WIND SWELL MOVING INTO SE
PORTIONS THROUGH LATE WED. MEANWHILE...NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND TUE AND MOVE INTO FAR NW
WATERS TUE AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL STALL THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE
SECONDARY PUSH WED MORNING MOVES FRONT THROUGH MOST OF FLORIDA...
REACHING FROM NEAR 31N74.5W TO 22.5N80W BY 00Z THU. ATLC RIDGE TO
HELP CREATE STRONG SLY FLOW N OF 28N AHEAD OF FRONT WED...WHILE NW
WINDS 25-30 KT EXPECTED BRIEFLY WED NW PORTIONS AS FRONT SHIFTS
SE...WITH PRES GRADIENT DECREASING THROUGH THU. FRONT TO CONTINUE
SE AND REACH FROM NEAR 25N65W TO E CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.





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