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000
FXCA20 KWBC 201829
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

DISCUSSION FROM AUGUST 20/00UTC: WEST OVER THE DOMAIN...AT 250
HPA...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL USA.
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... UNDER INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH ENTERING THE
WESTERN USA...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER MEXICO WHILE REDEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST USA. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THE RIDGE IS
TO ANCHOR ON A CLOSED HIGH OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA. THIS RELOCATES
TO GEORGIA LATER ON DAY 03. A TUTT LOW OVER EASTERN
TAMAULIPAS/NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO LIES TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
THIS RIDGE. AS RIDGE PATTERN EVOLVES TO THE NORTH THIS WILL DRAW
THE TUTT WESTWARD ACROSS TAMAULIPAS TO COAHUILA/SAN LUIS POTOSI ON
THURSDAY-FRIDAY. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THIS IS TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS VERACRUZ/CENTRAL STATES OF MEXICO...TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. BUT AS THE
TUTT RETROGRESSES/MOVES FARTHER WEST...ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO WILL DECREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. OVER
WESTERN MEXICO...MEANWHILE...EVOLVING PATTERN WILL SUSTAIN AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION. EARLY IN THE CYCLE ACTIVITY IS TO CLUSTER
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE BETWEEN SONORA-SINALOA TO
NAYARIT/COLIMA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM. THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING THIS IS TO INCREASE TO
15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...WITH MOST ACTIVE EXPECTED
ACROSS SINALOA-WESTERN CHIHUAHUA AND PORTIONS OF SONORA.

ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. POLAR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA IS TO
PRESS AGAINST THIS AXIS...LEADING TO ITS GRADUAL EROSION/COLLAPSE
LATER ON THURSDAY. BUT ON FRIDAY IT WILL BE REPLACED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST USA/GULF OF
MEXICO. THE LATTER IS TO HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL
PRESENCE...TO INITIALLY CONFINE TO THE GULF/SOUTHEAST USA. BUT
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY IT IS OT BUILD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA/CUBA TO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WINDS CAP ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. AS A RESULT...MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER
CUBA IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE CYCLE...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. LIKEWISE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-30MM...WITH DECREASE IN ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

A TUTT LOW LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...CENTERING
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE EXTENDING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE LOW IS CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW...AND TENDS TO
WEAKEN/NEARLY FILL AS IT MEANDERS WEST INTO HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
LATER IN THE CYCLE. EARLY ON THIS IS TO INTERACT WITH THE ITCZ IN
SUPPORT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
OTHER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN GUATEMALA-EL
SALVADOR/SOUTHERN HONDURAS WITH ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OVER NORTHERN
HONDURAS/NORTHEAST NICARAGUA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

FATHER EAST...A TUTT LOW NEAR 23N 65W EXTENDS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE COLD
CORE TROUGH ALOFT FAVORS DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AS
INDICATED BY THE GALVEZ-DAVISON INDEX (GDI). MODELS FORECAST THE
TUTT TO LIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC-NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WITH RIDGE
EXPECTED TO ENVELOP THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES LATER ON
FRIDAY-EARLY ON SATURDAY...WHILE ANCHORING AT 250 HPA ON A CLOSED
HIGH NEAR 22N 58W.  MEANWHILE...UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL PERTURBATION...DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY IS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...THE GDI SHOWS BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE CYCLE...WHILE
OVER HISPANIOLA THIS IS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...ACROSS PUERTO RICO EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM...WHILE OVER HISPANIOLA EXPECT
ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. THIS IS TO ALSO
ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
45W      49W    53W    58W    62W    66W    69W    72W     TW
52W      55W    58W    60W    DISSIPATES                   TW
91W      94W    97W    98W   100W   102W   104W   105W     TW

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE INITIALIZED ALONG THE ATLANTIC ITCZ...WITH
ONE ALONG 45W AND THE OTHER NEAR 52W. THE NHC IS MONITORING THESE
PERTURBATIONS FOR POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THESE
WAVES TO MERGE INTO A SINGLE PERTURBATION ALONG 60W-61W LATER ON
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THEY INTERACT...EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN GUYANA-NORTHEAST
VENEZUELA/WINDWARD ISLES WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. OVER SURINAME-GUYANA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. THE STRONG PERTURBATION...AS IT
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IS TO DRAW THE ITCZ NORTH ACROSS
THE FRENCH ISLANDS. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ACROSS PUERTO RICO-USVI
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
75-125MM...WHILE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 35-70MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 100-150MM. SOUTH
OVER VENEZUELA...IN INTERACTION WITH THE NET...EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL MEXICO
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS IS TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM...WHILE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC(USA)
GALVEZ...WPC(USA)

$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 201829
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

DISCUSSION FROM AUGUST 20/00UTC: WEST OVER THE DOMAIN...AT 250
HPA...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL USA.
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... UNDER INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH ENTERING THE
WESTERN USA...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER MEXICO WHILE REDEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST USA. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THE RIDGE IS
TO ANCHOR ON A CLOSED HIGH OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA. THIS RELOCATES
TO GEORGIA LATER ON DAY 03. A TUTT LOW OVER EASTERN
TAMAULIPAS/NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO LIES TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
THIS RIDGE. AS RIDGE PATTERN EVOLVES TO THE NORTH THIS WILL DRAW
THE TUTT WESTWARD ACROSS TAMAULIPAS TO COAHUILA/SAN LUIS POTOSI ON
THURSDAY-FRIDAY. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THIS IS TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS VERACRUZ/CENTRAL STATES OF MEXICO...TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. BUT AS THE
TUTT RETROGRESSES/MOVES FARTHER WEST...ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO WILL DECREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. OVER
WESTERN MEXICO...MEANWHILE...EVOLVING PATTERN WILL SUSTAIN AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION. EARLY IN THE CYCLE ACTIVITY IS TO CLUSTER
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE BETWEEN SONORA-SINALOA TO
NAYARIT/COLIMA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM. THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING THIS IS TO INCREASE TO
15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...WITH MOST ACTIVE EXPECTED
ACROSS SINALOA-WESTERN CHIHUAHUA AND PORTIONS OF SONORA.

ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. POLAR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA IS TO
PRESS AGAINST THIS AXIS...LEADING TO ITS GRADUAL EROSION/COLLAPSE
LATER ON THURSDAY. BUT ON FRIDAY IT WILL BE REPLACED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST USA/GULF OF
MEXICO. THE LATTER IS TO HAVE A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL
PRESENCE...TO INITIALLY CONFINE TO THE GULF/SOUTHEAST USA. BUT
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY IT IS OT BUILD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA/CUBA TO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WINDS CAP ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. AS A RESULT...MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER
CUBA IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE CYCLE...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. LIKEWISE ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-30MM...WITH DECREASE IN ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

A TUTT LOW LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...CENTERING
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE EXTENDING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE LOW IS CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW...AND TENDS TO
WEAKEN/NEARLY FILL AS IT MEANDERS WEST INTO HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
LATER IN THE CYCLE. EARLY ON THIS IS TO INTERACT WITH THE ITCZ IN
SUPPORT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
OTHER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN GUATEMALA-EL
SALVADOR/SOUTHERN HONDURAS WITH ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. OVER NORTHERN
HONDURAS/NORTHEAST NICARAGUA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

FATHER EAST...A TUTT LOW NEAR 23N 65W EXTENDS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE COLD
CORE TROUGH ALOFT FAVORS DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AS
INDICATED BY THE GALVEZ-DAVISON INDEX (GDI). MODELS FORECAST THE
TUTT TO LIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST
ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC-NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WITH RIDGE
EXPECTED TO ENVELOP THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES LATER ON
FRIDAY-EARLY ON SATURDAY...WHILE ANCHORING AT 250 HPA ON A CLOSED
HIGH NEAR 22N 58W.  MEANWHILE...UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL PERTURBATION...DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY IS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...THE GDI SHOWS BEST INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE CYCLE...WHILE
OVER HISPANIOLA THIS IS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...ACROSS PUERTO RICO EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM...WHILE OVER HISPANIOLA EXPECT
ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. THIS IS TO ALSO
ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
45W      49W    53W    58W    62W    66W    69W    72W     TW
52W      55W    58W    60W    DISSIPATES                   TW
91W      94W    97W    98W   100W   102W   104W   105W     TW

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE INITIALIZED ALONG THE ATLANTIC ITCZ...WITH
ONE ALONG 45W AND THE OTHER NEAR 52W. THE NHC IS MONITORING THESE
PERTURBATIONS FOR POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THESE
WAVES TO MERGE INTO A SINGLE PERTURBATION ALONG 60W-61W LATER ON
THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THEY INTERACT...EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN GUYANA-NORTHEAST
VENEZUELA/WINDWARD ISLES WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. OVER SURINAME-GUYANA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. THE STRONG PERTURBATION...AS IT
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IS TO DRAW THE ITCZ NORTH ACROSS
THE FRENCH ISLANDS. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ACROSS PUERTO RICO-USVI
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
75-125MM...WHILE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 35-70MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 100-150MM. SOUTH
OVER VENEZUELA...IN INTERACTION WITH THE NET...EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL MEXICO
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS IS TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM...WHILE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC(USA)
GALVEZ...WPC(USA)

$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 201121
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
721 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. TUTT LOW NEAR
23N 63W EXTENDS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS. THIS IS ENHANCING DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY...FAVORING GENERATION OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE TUTT IS TO PULL TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC-NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WITH RIDGE EXPECTED TO ENVELOP THE
FORECAST AREA LATER ON FRIDAY-EARLY ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL PERTURBATION...DEEP
LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. GDI SHOWS BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS INTO MID AFTERNOON. DURING THAT PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION CLUSTERING ALONG THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...WITH RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 1-2 INCHES.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING MAXIMA PEAKING AT 3-4 INCHES.

UPSTREAM OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...TWO WAVES DOMINATE THE FLOW
AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE ITCZ...WITH ONE ALONG 52W/53W AND THE
OTHER NEAR 44W/45W. THE NHC IS MONITORING THESE PERTURBATIONS AND
ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FOR POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PER GLOBAL
MODELS...LOOKS LIKE THESE PERTURBATIONS ARE TO GRADUALLY COMBINE
AS THEY MEANDER WEST ACROSS THE GUIANAS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.
THEY NOW FAVOR A MUCH FASTER PROGRESSION...WITH STRONG WAVE
ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE UKMET FAVORS A STRONGER PERTURBATION/ASSOCIATED
CIRCULATION THAN WHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST...WITH THE GFS
FAVORING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE THAN THE ECMWF. THE HIGH
VARIABILITY IS ALSO DISPLAYED BY THE NCEP ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...CREATING A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR SHORT-MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES ANALYSIS SHOWS
NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY UNFAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS PORTION
OF THE BASIN. THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO SLOW DOWN DEVELOPMENT...BUT
NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS IT. SO AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE SAFEST BET IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AS BOTH TEND
TO BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THE UKMET. NEVERTHELESS...THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF BEING A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCER...WITH RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 4-6 INCHES ACROSS SAINT CROIX
AND SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC(USA)
GALVEZ...WPC(USA)

$$






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