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000
FXCA20 KWBC 051100
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
700 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM AUG 05/06
UTC:  RETROGRESSING TUTT EXTENDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS. AS IT RETROGRESSES TOWARDS THE BASIN...THIS IS PRESSING
AGAINST A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE LATTER FAVORS A
STRONG CAP INVERSION. AT LOW LEVELS...BROAD RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SUSTAINS A TIGHT GRADIENT AND BRISK EASTERLY
TRADES...WHILE ALSO TRIGGERING GENERATION OF STREAMERS AND LIGHT
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION.

TUTT IS TO GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO/VIRGIN ISLES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHERE IT IS TO REMAIN
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. MID ALTHOUGH THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL PERTURBATION... THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
ENVELOPING THE FORECAST AREA IS GOING TO HOLD A BIT LONGER THAN AT
UPPER LEVELS. SO EROSION OF CAP INVERSION IS GOING TO BE A SLOW
AND ARDUOUS PROCESS. THE TUTT ALOFT IS TO SUSTAIN A PERTURBATION
IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. THIS ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TO THEN SURGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EVOLVING MID/UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE SURFACE RIDGE...WITH
AXIS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS
A RESULT...TRADE WIND EASTERLIES WILL DECREASE TO 10-15KT LATER
TODAY...AND THIS IS TO HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE SEA/LAND BREEZE CYCLE TO ESTABLISH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE WEAKER TRADES AND INFLOW OF MOISTURE IS TO
LIKELY FAVOR AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION...WITH SHOWERS
CLUSTERING ON WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. BUT AS THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST...CONVECTION IS TO THEN
CLUSTER OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO LATER ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY. IN
THIS PATTERN THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC THAT WE ARE TO
HAVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHILE THE EUROPEAN MODELS
GENERALLY FAVOR TRACE AMOUNTS. THIS IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO A HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 051100
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
700 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM AUG 05/06
UTC:  RETROGRESSING TUTT EXTENDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS. AS IT RETROGRESSES TOWARDS THE BASIN...THIS IS PRESSING
AGAINST A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE LATTER FAVORS A
STRONG CAP INVERSION. AT LOW LEVELS...BROAD RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SUSTAINS A TIGHT GRADIENT AND BRISK EASTERLY
TRADES...WHILE ALSO TRIGGERING GENERATION OF STREAMERS AND LIGHT
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION.

TUTT IS TO GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO/VIRGIN ISLES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHERE IT IS TO REMAIN
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. MID ALTHOUGH THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL PERTURBATION... THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
ENVELOPING THE FORECAST AREA IS GOING TO HOLD A BIT LONGER THAN AT
UPPER LEVELS. SO EROSION OF CAP INVERSION IS GOING TO BE A SLOW
AND ARDUOUS PROCESS. THE TUTT ALOFT IS TO SUSTAIN A PERTURBATION
IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. THIS ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TO THEN SURGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EVOLVING MID/UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE SURFACE RIDGE...WITH
AXIS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS
A RESULT...TRADE WIND EASTERLIES WILL DECREASE TO 10-15KT LATER
TODAY...AND THIS IS TO HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE SEA/LAND BREEZE CYCLE TO ESTABLISH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE WEAKER TRADES AND INFLOW OF MOISTURE IS TO
LIKELY FAVOR AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION...WITH SHOWERS
CLUSTERING ON WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. BUT AS THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST...CONVECTION IS TO THEN
CLUSTER OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO LATER ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY. IN
THIS PATTERN THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC THAT WE ARE TO
HAVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHILE THE EUROPEAN MODELS
GENERALLY FAVOR TRACE AMOUNTS. THIS IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO A HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 051100
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
700 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM AUG 05/06
UTC:  RETROGRESSING TUTT EXTENDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS. AS IT RETROGRESSES TOWARDS THE BASIN...THIS IS PRESSING
AGAINST A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE LATTER FAVORS A
STRONG CAP INVERSION. AT LOW LEVELS...BROAD RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC SUSTAINS A TIGHT GRADIENT AND BRISK EASTERLY
TRADES...WHILE ALSO TRIGGERING GENERATION OF STREAMERS AND LIGHT
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION.

TUTT IS TO GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO/VIRGIN ISLES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHERE IT IS TO REMAIN
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. MID ALTHOUGH THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL PERTURBATION... THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
ENVELOPING THE FORECAST AREA IS GOING TO HOLD A BIT LONGER THAN AT
UPPER LEVELS. SO EROSION OF CAP INVERSION IS GOING TO BE A SLOW
AND ARDUOUS PROCESS. THE TUTT ALOFT IS TO SUSTAIN A PERTURBATION
IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. THIS ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE TO THEN SURGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EVOLVING MID/UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE SURFACE RIDGE...WITH
AXIS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS
A RESULT...TRADE WIND EASTERLIES WILL DECREASE TO 10-15KT LATER
TODAY...AND THIS IS TO HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE SEA/LAND BREEZE CYCLE TO ESTABLISH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE WEAKER TRADES AND INFLOW OF MOISTURE IS TO
LIKELY FAVOR AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION...WITH SHOWERS
CLUSTERING ON WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. BUT AS THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST...CONVECTION IS TO THEN
CLUSTER OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO LATER ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY. IN
THIS PATTERN THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC THAT WE ARE TO
HAVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHILE THE EUROPEAN MODELS
GENERALLY FAVOR TRACE AMOUNTS. THIS IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO A HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 051056
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
655 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

DISCUSSION FROM AUG 05/12 UTC: test


SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 051056
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
655 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

DISCUSSION FROM AUG 05/12 UTC: test


SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 051056
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
655 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

DISCUSSION FROM AUG 05/12 UTC: test


SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 051056
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
655 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

DISCUSSION FROM AUG 05/12 UTC: test


SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 051035
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
634 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

DISCUSSION FROM AUG 05/12 UTC: test


SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 051035
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
634 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

DISCUSSION FROM AUG 05/12 UTC: test


SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 051035
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
634 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

DISCUSSION FROM AUG 05/12 UTC: test


SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 051035
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
634 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

DISCUSSION FROM AUG 05/12 UTC: test


SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 051013
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
613 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

DISCUSSION FROM AUG 04/12 UTC: BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHWEST USA IS PROVIDING THE STEERING FLOW TO A
TUTT LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST MEXICO. THROUGH THIS EVENING THE LOW IS
TO RELOCATE SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST MEXICO WHERE WE EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OTHER
CONVECTION IS TO CLUSTER ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...
WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM. THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAXIMA INCREASES TO 15-30MM.

ANOTHER TUTT TO THE EAST DOMINATES THE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN-CENTRAL AMERICA. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE BASIN PUSHES
THIS TROUGH WEST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH REFLECTS WELL AT MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE... SUSTAINING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN-CUBA EARLY IN THE CYCLE. THIS IS TO ALSO
RELOCATE WEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN/NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE
SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING/THURSDAY
MORNING. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THIS IS TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS
CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM. AS IT RETROGRESSES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THE TUTT
IS TO INITIALLY ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST
HONDURAS WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER
BELIZE-YUCATAN/GUATEMALA THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE SOUTHERN
STATES OF MEXICO EXPECTING MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THEN AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST
STATES ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WHEN WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.

ON ITS WAKE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN TO CENTRAL AMERICA-NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. AS IT BUILDS
ACROSS THE BASIN THIS IS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WINDS
CAP. AT LOW LEVELS THIS SUSTAINS A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL-WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THE ENSUING
GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN FAVORS BRISK EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS IS TO PERSIST THROUGH
MIDMORNING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GRADIENT TO THEN GRADUALLY SLACKEN
AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE TO CONFINE TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE WINDS ARE TO
PEAK AT 20-25KT. OTHERWISE WINDS OF 10-15KT ARE TO PREVAIL. EARLY
IN THE PERIOD THE BRISK EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO FAVOR GENERATION OF
STREAMERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...BUT AS THE WINDS WEAKEN
THESE ARE TO WANE. SEA/LAND BREEZES ARE TO THEN BECOME ACTIVE
ACROSS THE LARGER ISLANDS.

BROAD TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS TO SLOWLY RETROGRESS TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATER ON THURSDAY. AS IT RETROGRESSES IT IS TO MERGE WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. AT MID LEVELS THIS IS
TO INITIALLY FAVOR A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THROUGH THURSDAY THIS WEAKENS TO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT
MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. LATER IN THE WEEK
THIS SETTLES OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...TO FAVOR AN
INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION PATTERN AS IT INTERACTS WITH SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

THE ATLANTIC ITCZ LIES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. AS IT REMAINS NORTH OF THE
GUIANAS...IN THIS AREA SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. OVER VENEZUELA NET
RELATED CONVECTION IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA TODAY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. ACROSS WESTERN COLOMBIA...MEANWHILE...EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. MOST
INTENSE...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE MAXIMA
IS TO PEAK AT 20-30MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96        TYPE
46W      48W    51W    53W    56W    59W    62W    64W       TUTT
INDCD.
55W      57W    59W    62W    64W    66W    69W    71W       TW
78W      81W    DISSIPATES                                   TUTT
INDCD.

THE RETROGRESSING TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUSTAINS AN
INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. THIS MOVES ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 10MM. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE WINDWARDS ARE TO
PEAK AT 10-15MM.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W REMAINS ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF
THE RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE WEST. AS IT PULLS
ACROSS THE GUIANAS THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN IT IS TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLES WHERE THE MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT
10-15MM. OVER THE VIRGIN ISLES-PUERTO RICO TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA
THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND WIDELY
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 10MM. OVER VENEZUELA...IN INTERACTION WITH THE
NET...EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM.

THE TUTT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUSTAINS AN INDUCED/INVERTED
TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY TRADES ALONG 78W. BUT THIS IS TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...AS IT MOVES TO
EASTERN NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST HONDURAS EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 050958
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
557 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

DISCUSSION FROM JUL 29/12 UTC: WEST OVER THE DOMAIN...BROAD RIDGE
IS TO DOMINATE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN USA-NORTHERN GULF TO THE
NORTHERN STATES OF MEXICO...WHILE ANCHORING ON A MEANDERING HIGH
OVER TEXAS. THE RIDGE IS TO PROVIDE THE STEERING FLOW TO TUTT LOWS
TO THE SOUTH...WITH ONE OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO TO MEANDER
WEST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. AS IT MEANDERS WEST THIS IS TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST MEXICO...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. OTHER CONVECTION ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRE IS TO CLUSTER BETWEEN SINALOA AND
COLIMA/NAYARIT...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER SONORA ARE TO PEAK AT 15-25MM EARLY
IN THE CYCLE.

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER TUTT OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN/ NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. INFLOW OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY
FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW THIS TROUGH TO EVOLVE INTO A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS EARLY ON THURSDAY. THIS IS TO
THEN MEANDER OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE EXTENDING A TROUGH
ACROSS GUATEMALA TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. AS IT MEANDERS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/TUTT LOW IS TO
ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS HONDURAS-GUATEMALA...WITH MOST
ACTIVE ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WHEN WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH...MEANWHILE...EXTENDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST FROM A CLOSED LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
FLORIDA...ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN GULF. THE TROUGH IS
TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MEANWHILE FOCUSING SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ACROSS BIMINI-GRAND BAHAMA AND GREAT ABACO. THE INFLOW OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN TO SUSTAIN DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. IN THIS AREA THE GALVEZ-DAVISON INDEX (GDI)
CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. IN A SLOW TO EVOLVE PATTERN THERE IS SOME
RISK OF ECHO TRAINING...BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE OF MOST SIGNIFICANCE
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. MEANWHILE...OVER GRAND
BAHAMA-GREAT ABACO EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...INCREASING TO MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY ON
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. OVER NEW PROVIDENCE/ELEUTHERA TO NORTHERN
ANDROS EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM.

MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH DOMINATES FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. UNDER PRESSURE FROM THE TROUGH TO
THE NORTH THE RIDGE IS TO GRADUALLY COLLAPSE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT ANOTHER RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO RAPIDLY BUILD FROM
THE EAST...TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLES LATER ON FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE TO MIGRATE
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO PUERTO RICO/NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES
EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...REACHING HISPANIOLA/EASTERN CUBA LATER
ON FRIDAY. THIS APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN TRADE WINDS CAP
ENVELOPING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES...WITH MODELS CONSISTENTLY
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN PWAT AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
ACROSS THE FRENCH/NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLES-VIRGIN ISLES TO EASTERN
PUERTO RICO THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 10MM ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY. BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE EAST IS
TO THEN SUSTAIN EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND REGENERATION OF
TRADE WINDS CAP.

FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER TUTT LOW IS TO CLOSE NORTH OF FRENCH GUIANA
LATER ON THURSDAY. IN CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS THIS IS NOW
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...IT IS TO INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC ITCZ/SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN GUIANAS. INITIALLY EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. THROUGH FRIDAY THIS
INCREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96        TYPE
22W      25W    28     30W    33W    37W    40W    43W       TW
62W      66W    70W    74W    77W    80W    83W    85W       TW
82W      85W    88W    91W    93W    96W    99W   102W    TW/SURGE
92W      95W    98W   101W   103W   105W   107W   109W       TW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 22W IS TO CONFINE TO THE ATLANTIC ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED ALONG 62W AND SOUTH OF 19N. A SHALLOW
MOIST PLUME TRAILS THIS WAVE...AND OVER THE NORTHERN
WINDWARD-FRENCH/VIRGIN ISLES IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM...WHILE OVER HISPANIOLA THE MAXIMA
IS TO PEAK AT 10-15MM ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...OVER
NORTHEAST-CENTRAL VENEZUELA THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE
OVER NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. ACROSS PANAMA-COSTA RICA IT IS TO THEN TRIGGER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE ITCZ. NORTH ALONG THIS AXIS...OVER JAMAICA-CENTRAL
CUBA...EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
10MM ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W IS TO INTERACT WITH THE ITCZ OVER COSTA
RICA-SOUTHERN NICARAGUA TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. ACROSS
NORTHEAST NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS...IN INTERACTION WITH DEEPENING
TUTT LOW TO THE WEST...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER GUATEMALA-SOUTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.
OVER CENTRAL-SOUTHWEST MEXICO THIS INCREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W MOVES TO SOUTHERN MEXICO EARLY IN THE
CYCLE...TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM. AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST MEXICO EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THIS
IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-30MM LATER ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
SAMUEL...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 050958
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
557 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

DISCUSSION FROM JUL 29/12 UTC: WEST OVER THE DOMAIN...BROAD RIDGE
IS TO DOMINATE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN USA-NORTHERN GULF TO THE
NORTHERN STATES OF MEXICO...WHILE ANCHORING ON A MEANDERING HIGH
OVER TEXAS. THE RIDGE IS TO PROVIDE THE STEERING FLOW TO TUTT LOWS
TO THE SOUTH...WITH ONE OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO TO MEANDER
WEST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. AS IT MEANDERS WEST THIS IS TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST MEXICO...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. OTHER CONVECTION ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRE IS TO CLUSTER BETWEEN SINALOA AND
COLIMA/NAYARIT...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER SONORA ARE TO PEAK AT 15-25MM EARLY
IN THE CYCLE.

THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER TUTT OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN/ NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. INFLOW OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY
FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW THIS TROUGH TO EVOLVE INTO A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS EARLY ON THURSDAY. THIS IS TO
THEN MEANDER OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE EXTENDING A TROUGH
ACROSS GUATEMALA TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. AS IT MEANDERS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/TUTT LOW IS TO
ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS HONDURAS-GUATEMALA...WITH MOST
ACTIVE ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WHEN WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH...MEANWHILE...EXTENDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST FROM A CLOSED LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
FLORIDA...ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN GULF. THE TROUGH IS
TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MEANWHILE FOCUSING SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ACROSS BIMINI-GRAND BAHAMA AND GREAT ABACO. THE INFLOW OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN TO SUSTAIN DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. IN THIS AREA THE GALVEZ-DAVISON INDEX (GDI)
CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. IN A SLOW TO EVOLVE PATTERN THERE IS SOME
RISK OF ECHO TRAINING...BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE OF MOST SIGNIFICANCE
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. MEANWHILE...OVER GRAND
BAHAMA-GREAT ABACO EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...INCREASING TO MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY ON
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. OVER NEW PROVIDENCE/ELEUTHERA TO NORTHERN
ANDROS EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM.

MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH DOMINATES FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. UNDER PRESSURE FROM THE TROUGH TO
THE NORTH THE RIDGE IS TO GRADUALLY COLLAPSE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT ANOTHER RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO RAPIDLY BUILD FROM
THE EAST...TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLES LATER ON FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ARE TO MIGRATE
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO PUERTO RICO/NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES
EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...REACHING HISPANIOLA/EASTERN CUBA LATER
ON FRIDAY. THIS APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN TRADE WINDS CAP
ENVELOPING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES...WITH MODELS CONSISTENTLY
SHOWING AN INCREASE IN PWAT AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
ACROSS THE FRENCH/NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLES-VIRGIN ISLES TO EASTERN
PUERTO RICO THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 10MM ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY. BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE EAST IS
TO THEN SUSTAIN EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND REGENERATION OF
TRADE WINDS CAP.

FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER TUTT LOW IS TO CLOSE NORTH OF FRENCH GUIANA
LATER ON THURSDAY. IN CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS THIS IS NOW
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE...IT IS TO INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC ITCZ/SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN GUIANAS. INITIALLY EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. THROUGH FRIDAY THIS
INCREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96        TYPE
22W      25W    28     30W    33W    37W    40W    43W       TW
62W      66W    70W    74W    77W    80W    83W    85W       TW
82W      85W    88W    91W    93W    96W    99W   102W    TW/SURGE
92W      95W    98W   101W   103W   105W   107W   109W       TW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 22W IS TO CONFINE TO THE ATLANTIC ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED ALONG 62W AND SOUTH OF 19N. A SHALLOW
MOIST PLUME TRAILS THIS WAVE...AND OVER THE NORTHERN
WINDWARD-FRENCH/VIRGIN ISLES IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM...WHILE OVER HISPANIOLA THE MAXIMA
IS TO PEAK AT 10-15MM ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...OVER
NORTHEAST-CENTRAL VENEZUELA THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE
OVER NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. ACROSS PANAMA-COSTA RICA IT IS TO THEN TRIGGER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE ITCZ. NORTH ALONG THIS AXIS...OVER JAMAICA-CENTRAL
CUBA...EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
10MM ON FRIDAY-SATURDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W IS TO INTERACT WITH THE ITCZ OVER COSTA
RICA-SOUTHERN NICARAGUA TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. ACROSS
NORTHEAST NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS...IN INTERACTION WITH DEEPENING
TUTT LOW TO THE WEST...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER GUATEMALA-SOUTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.
OVER CENTRAL-SOUTHWEST MEXICO THIS INCREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W MOVES TO SOUTHERN MEXICO EARLY IN THE
CYCLE...TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM. AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST MEXICO EARLY ON WEDNESDAY THIS
IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-30MM LATER ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
SAMUEL...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 050956
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
556 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

DISCUSSION FROM AUG 04/12 UTC: BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHWEST USA IS PROVIDING THE STEERING FLOW TO A
TUTT LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST MEXICO. THROUGH THIS EVENING THE LOW IS
TO RELOCATE SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST MEXICO WHERE WE EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OTHER
CONVECTION IS TO CLUSTER ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...
WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM. THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAXIMA INCREASES TO 15-30MM.

ANOTHER TUTT TO THE EAST DOMINATES THE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN-CENTRAL AMERICA. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE BASIN PUSHES
THIS TROUGH WEST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH REFLECTS WELL AT MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE... SUSTAINING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN-CUBA EARLY IN THE CYCLE. THIS IS TO ALSO
RELOCATE WEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN/NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE
SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING/THURSDAY
MORNING. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THIS IS TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS
CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM. AS IT RETROGRESSES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THE TUTT
IS TO INITIALLY ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST
HONDURAS WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER
BELIZE-YUCATAN/GUATEMALA THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE SOUTHERN
STATES OF MEXICO EXPECTING MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THEN AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST
STATES ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WHEN WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.

ON ITS WAKE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN TO CENTRAL AMERICA-NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. AS IT BUILDS
ACROSS THE BASIN THIS IS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WINDS
CAP. AT LOW LEVELS THIS SUSTAINS A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL-WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THE ENSUING
GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN FAVORS BRISK EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS IS TO PERSIST THROUGH
MIDMORNING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GRADIENT TO THEN GRADUALLY SLACKEN
AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE TO CONFINE TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE WINDS ARE TO
PEAK AT 20-25KT. OTHERWISE WINDS OF 10-15KT ARE TO PREVAIL. EARLY
IN THE PERIOD THE BRISK EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO FAVOR GENERATION OF
STREAMERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...BUT AS THE WINDS WEAKEN
THESE ARE TO WANE. SEA/LAND BREEZES ARE TO THEN BECOME ACTIVE
ACROSS THE LARGER ISLANDS.

BROAD TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS TO SLOWLY RETROGRESS TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATER ON THURSDAY. AS IT RETROGRESSES IT IS TO MERGE WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. AT MID LEVELS THIS IS
TO INITIALLY FAVOR A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THROUGH THURSDAY THIS WEAKENS TO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT
MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. LATER IN THE WEEK
THIS SETTLES OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...TO FAVOR AN
INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION PATTERN AS IT INTERACTS WITH SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

THE ATLANTIC ITCZ LIES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. AS IT REMAINS NORTH OF THE
GUIANAS...IN THIS AREA SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. OVER VENEZUELA NET
RELATED CONVECTION IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA TODAY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. ACROSS WESTERN COLOMBIA...MEANWHILE...EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. MOST
INTENSE...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE MAXIMA
IS TO PEAK AT 20-30MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96        TYPE
46W      48W    51W    53W    56W    59W    62W    64W       TUTT
INDCD.
55W      57W    59W    62W    64W    66W    69W    71W       TW
78W      81W    DISSIPATES                                   TUTT
INDCD.

THE RETROGRESSING TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUSTAINS AN
INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. THIS MOVES ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 10MM. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE WINDWARDS ARE TO
PEAK AT 10-15MM.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W REMAINS ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF
THE RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE WEST. AS IT PULLS
ACROSS THE GUIANAS THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN IT IS TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLES WHERE THE MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT
10-15MM. OVER THE VIRGIN ISLES-PUERTO RICO TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA
THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND WIDELY
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 10MM. OVER VENEZUELA...IN INTERACTION WITH THE
NET...EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM.

THE TUTT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUSTAINS AN INDUCED/INVERTED
TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY TRADES ALONG 78W. BUT THIS IS TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...AS IT MOVES TO
EASTERN NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST HONDURAS EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 041815
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

DISCUSSION FROM AUG 04/12 UTC: BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHWEST USA IS PROVIDING THE STEERING FLOW TO A
TUTT LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST MEXICO. THROUGH THIS EVENING THE LOW IS
TO RELOCATE SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST MEXICO WHERE WE EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OTHER
CONVECTION IS TO CLUSTER ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...
WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM. THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAXIMA INCREASES TO 15-30MM.

ANOTHER TUTT TO THE EAST DOMINATES THE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN-CENTRAL AMERICA. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE BASIN PUSHES
THIS TROUGH WEST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH REFLECTS WELL AT MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE... SUSTAINING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN-CUBA EARLY IN THE CYCLE. THIS IS TO ALSO
RELOCATE WEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN/NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE
SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING/THURSDAY
MORNING. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THIS IS TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS
CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM. AS IT RETROGRESSES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THE TUTT
IS TO INITIALLY ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST
HONDURAS WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER
BELIZE-YUCATAN/GUATEMALA THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE SOUTHERN
STATES OF MEXICO EXPECTING MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THEN AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST
STATES ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WHEN WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.

ON ITS WAKE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN TO CENTRAL AMERICA-NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. AS IT BUILDS
ACROSS THE BASIN THIS IS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WINDS
CAP. AT LOW LEVELS THIS SUSTAINS A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL-WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THE ENSUING
GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN FAVORS BRISK EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS IS TO PERSIST THROUGH
MIDMORNING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GRADIENT TO THEN GRADUALLY SLACKEN
AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE TO CONFINE TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE WINDS ARE TO
PEAK AT 20-25KT. OTHERWISE WINDS OF 10-15KT ARE TO PREVAIL. EARLY
IN THE PERIOD THE BRISK EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO FAVOR GENERATION OF
STREAMERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...BUT AS THE WINDS WEAKEN
THESE ARE TO WANE. SEA/LAND BREEZES ARE TO THEN BECOME ACTIVE
ACROSS THE LARGER ISLANDS.

BROAD TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS TO SLOWLY RETROGRESS TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATER ON THURSDAY. AS IT RETROGRESSES IT IS TO MERGE WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. AT MID LEVELS THIS IS
TO INITIALLY FAVOR A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THROUGH THURSDAY THIS WEAKENS TO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT
MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. LATER IN THE WEEK
THIS SETTLES OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...TO FAVOR AN
INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION PATTERN AS IT INTERACTS WITH SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

THE ATLANTIC ITCZ LIES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. AS IT REMAINS NORTH OF THE
GUIANAS...IN THIS AREA SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. OVER VENEZUELA NET
RELATED CONVECTION IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA TODAY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. ACROSS WESTERN COLOMBIA...MEANWHILE...EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. MOST
INTENSE...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE MAXIMA
IS TO PEAK AT 20-30MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96        TYPE
46W      48W    51W    53W    56W    59W    62W    64W       TUTT
INDCD.
55W      57W    59W    62W    64W    66W    69W    71W       TW
78W      81W    DISSIPATES                                   TUTT
INDCD.

THE RETROGRESSING TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUSTAINS AN
INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. THIS MOVES ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 10MM. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE WINDWARDS ARE TO
PEAK AT 10-15MM.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W REMAINS ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF
THE RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE WEST. AS IT PULLS
ACROSS THE GUIANAS THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN IT IS TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLES WHERE THE MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT
10-15MM. OVER THE VIRGIN ISLES-PUERTO RICO TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA
THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND WIDELY
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 10MM. OVER VENEZUELA...IN INTERACTION WITH THE
NET...EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM.

THE TUTT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUSTAINS AN INDUCED/INVERTED
TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY TRADES ALONG 78W. BUT THIS IS TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...AS IT MOVES TO
EASTERN NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST HONDURAS EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 041042
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
642 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM AUG 04/06
UTC: MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO DOMINATE FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...FAVORING STRONG CAP INVERSION AND A PWAT MINIMA
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AT LOW LEVELS BRISK EASTERLY TRADES
PREVAIL...FAVORING GENERATION OF STREAMERS ACROSS THE
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLES. THIS...IN-TURN...SUSTAINS LIGHT BRIEF
SHOWERS AS THEY STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS TO HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGER THAN
WHAT THE MODELS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. LATER IN THE
WEEK...RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW IS TO PUT A DENT ON THE
PATTERN...WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY ON FRIDAY. WEAKNESS IN HEIGHT FIELD IS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT STARTS TO WEAKEN
IT WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY CLOUD CLUSTERS TO ADVECT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE WATER
LIKELY ON SATURDAY-SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT LOW LEVELS...BRISK EASTERLY TRADES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDMORNING ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO 10-15KT. THE LIGHTER WINDS ARE LIKELY TO FAVOR
ACTIVATION OF THE LAND/SEA BREEZE CYCLE ACROSS THE LARGER
ISLANDS...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE. IF THE PATTERN HOLDS AS THE MODELS
NOW SUGGEST...SATURDAY-SUNDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







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