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000
FXCA20 KWBC 161830
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
230 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AT 15 UTC TS ODILE CENTERED NEAR 28.4N 113.2W...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 994 HPA...MOVING
TO THE NORTHWEST AT 8KT.

AT 15 UTC TS POLO CENTERED NEAR 12.8N 99.4W...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 HPA...MOVING
TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10KT.

DISCUSSION FROM SEPTEMBER 16/00UTC: AT 250 HPA...A RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTH ACROSS MEXICO TO THE WESTERN USA...WHILE CENTERING ON A
CLOSED HIGH OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO HOLD
NEARLY UNCHANGED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE IS TO
PROVIDE THE VENTILATION ALOFT AND STEERING FLOW TO TROPICAL STORMS
ODILE AND POLO. TS ODILE IS TO MOVE TO THE NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION AS IT
ENTERS SONORA LATER IN THE DAY. ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA-SONORA THIS IS TO FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE ON WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY IT IS TO
SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-100MM.

THE NHC THEN FORECASTS TS POLO TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE EARLY
ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.
AS IT NEARS THE COAST...THIS IS TO ENHANCE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE. BETWEEN  GUERRERO-NAYARIT/COLIMA THIS IS TO
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM.
THROUGH FRIDAY...CONVECTION IS TO BUILD NORTHWARD ACROSS SINALOA.

ALSO AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT NOW CENTERS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH THIS IS TO MIGRATE TO
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC EARLY IN THE
CYCLE...WHERE IT IS TO THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO
INTERACT WITH THE ITCZ AS THE LATTER MEANDERS NORTH OF ITS
CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION. ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO THIS IS TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. ON THE
SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO TO GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR/HONDURAS THE
ITCZ IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THIS IS TO DECREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

PERSISTENT RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN USA/MEXICO WILL SUSTAIN
THE GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF A POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH IS TO REACH MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED FRONT IS TO CONFINE
TO THE SOUTHEAST USA...THE DEEP POLAR TROUGH PATTERN TO THE NORTH
IS TO INDUCE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WHILE FAVORING DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. A SLIGHT INCREASE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS.

DEEPENING POLAR TROUGH TO THE WEST IS TO INTERACT WITH A TUTT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. EARLY THIS MORNING THE
TUTT CENTERED ON A LOW NORTH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...WITH BROAD
TROUGH ENVELOPING THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. AS THE POLAR TROUGH
DEEPENS TO THE WEST...THE TUTT IS FORECAST TO SHEAR/SPLIT IN TWO
VORTICES. THE NORTHERNMOST PULLS ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATER ON
WEDNESDAY...NEARING 62W/63W LATER ON THURSDAY. AS IT PULLS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO THIS IS TO INTERACT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING/SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. THE SOUTHERNMOST
SEGMENT...MEANWHILE...MEANDERS ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLES/JAMAICA TO
THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA...WHERE IT IS TO REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT AS IT CUTS OFF FROM THE FLOW IT IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE CYCLE PROGRESSES. THIS IS
INTERACTING WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ...SUSTAINING A SURGE IN
CONVECTION ACROSS NICARAGUA TO COSTA RICA/PANAMA...WHERE WE EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH EXTENDS EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...WHILE ANCHORING ON A CLOSED HIGH NEAR
ISLA DE MARGARITA. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING THE HIGH WILL
RELOCATE TOWARDS LA GUAJIRA PENINSULA IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...BUT
RIDGE PATTERN IS TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA. THE GUIANAS WILL FALL ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF
THIS RIDGE...WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COASTAL
AREAS...WHERE WE EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
10MM. ACROSS CENTRAL VENEZUELA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
31W     33W    36W    39W    42W    45W    48W    50W     TW
52W     55W    58W    60W    63W    65W    68W    71W     TW
96W     97W    98W    DISP                              TUTT INDCD.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 31W IS TO CONFINE TO THE ATLANTIC ITCZ OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER ON
WEDNESDAY... WHERE IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THROUGH MID MORNING ON THURSDAY
IT PULLS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES TO PUERTO RICO. THIS IS TO THEN
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
FOLLOWING WAVE PASSAGE...A LONG FETCH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS TO
ESTABLISH...WITH ITCZ MOISTURE LIFTING ACROSS THE FRENCH ISLES TO
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLES...TO SUSTAIN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD/FRENCH ISLES WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE THEN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.

TUTT OVER CENTRAL MEXICO SUSTAINS AN INDUCED PERTURBATION IN THE
LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. THIS TENDS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST.
MEANWHILE...EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS THIS
INTERACTS WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ...TO RESULT IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 161830
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
230 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AT 15 UTC TS ODILE CENTERED NEAR 28.4N 113.2W...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 994 HPA...MOVING
TO THE NORTHWEST AT 8KT.

AT 15 UTC TS POLO CENTERED NEAR 12.8N 99.4W...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 HPA...MOVING
TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10KT.

DISCUSSION FROM SEPTEMBER 16/00UTC: AT 250 HPA...A RIDGE EXTENDS
NORTH ACROSS MEXICO TO THE WESTERN USA...WHILE CENTERING ON A
CLOSED HIGH OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO HOLD
NEARLY UNCHANGED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE IS TO
PROVIDE THE VENTILATION ALOFT AND STEERING FLOW TO TROPICAL STORMS
ODILE AND POLO. TS ODILE IS TO MOVE TO THE NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION AS IT
ENTERS SONORA LATER IN THE DAY. ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA-SONORA THIS IS TO FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE ON WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY IT IS TO
SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-100MM.

THE NHC THEN FORECASTS TS POLO TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE EARLY
ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.
AS IT NEARS THE COAST...THIS IS TO ENHANCE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE. BETWEEN  GUERRERO-NAYARIT/COLIMA THIS IS TO
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM.
THROUGH FRIDAY...CONVECTION IS TO BUILD NORTHWARD ACROSS SINALOA.

ALSO AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT NOW CENTERS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.
UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH THIS IS TO MIGRATE TO
THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC EARLY IN THE
CYCLE...WHERE IT IS TO THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO
INTERACT WITH THE ITCZ AS THE LATTER MEANDERS NORTH OF ITS
CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION. ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO THIS IS TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. ON THE
SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO TO GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR/HONDURAS THE
ITCZ IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THIS IS TO DECREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

PERSISTENT RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN USA/MEXICO WILL SUSTAIN
THE GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF A POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH IS TO REACH MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED FRONT IS TO CONFINE
TO THE SOUTHEAST USA...THE DEEP POLAR TROUGH PATTERN TO THE NORTH
IS TO INDUCE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
EARLY ON THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WHILE FAVORING DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. A SLIGHT INCREASE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS.

DEEPENING POLAR TROUGH TO THE WEST IS TO INTERACT WITH A TUTT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. EARLY THIS MORNING THE
TUTT CENTERED ON A LOW NORTH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...WITH BROAD
TROUGH ENVELOPING THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. AS THE POLAR TROUGH
DEEPENS TO THE WEST...THE TUTT IS FORECAST TO SHEAR/SPLIT IN TWO
VORTICES. THE NORTHERNMOST PULLS ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATER ON
WEDNESDAY...NEARING 62W/63W LATER ON THURSDAY. AS IT PULLS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO THIS IS TO INTERACT WITH DIURNAL
HEATING/SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. THE SOUTHERNMOST
SEGMENT...MEANWHILE...MEANDERS ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLES/JAMAICA TO
THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA...WHERE IT IS TO REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT AS IT CUTS OFF FROM THE FLOW IT IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE CYCLE PROGRESSES. THIS IS
INTERACTING WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ...SUSTAINING A SURGE IN
CONVECTION ACROSS NICARAGUA TO COSTA RICA/PANAMA...WHERE WE EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH EXTENDS EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...WHILE ANCHORING ON A CLOSED HIGH NEAR
ISLA DE MARGARITA. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING THE HIGH WILL
RELOCATE TOWARDS LA GUAJIRA PENINSULA IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...BUT
RIDGE PATTERN IS TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA. THE GUIANAS WILL FALL ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF
THIS RIDGE...WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COASTAL
AREAS...WHERE WE EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
10MM. ACROSS CENTRAL VENEZUELA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
31W     33W    36W    39W    42W    45W    48W    50W     TW
52W     55W    58W    60W    63W    65W    68W    71W     TW
96W     97W    98W    DISP                              TUTT INDCD.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 31W IS TO CONFINE TO THE ATLANTIC ITCZ OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER ON
WEDNESDAY... WHERE IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THROUGH MID MORNING ON THURSDAY
IT PULLS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES TO PUERTO RICO. THIS IS TO THEN
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
FOLLOWING WAVE PASSAGE...A LONG FETCH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS TO
ESTABLISH...WITH ITCZ MOISTURE LIFTING ACROSS THE FRENCH ISLES TO
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLES...TO SUSTAIN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD/FRENCH ISLES WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE THEN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.

TUTT OVER CENTRAL MEXICO SUSTAINS AN INDUCED PERTURBATION IN THE
LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. THIS TENDS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST.
MEANWHILE...EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS THIS
INTERACTS WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ...TO RESULT IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 161137
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
737 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. WANING TUTT
LOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ASSOCIATED
TROUGH GRAZING THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THIS...IN
INTERACTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING/SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE...SUSTAINED DEEP LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. AT MID
LEVELS...PERSISTENT RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES
CONTINUES TO FAVOR A CAP INVERSION. THIS REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS...WHILE
DELAYING ONSET OF DIURNAL ACTIVITY OVER THE LARGER ISLANDS. AS THE
PATTERN ALOFT HOLDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...TO GENERALLY
FAVOR MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AT LOW LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE
IS INITIALIZED ALONG 51W/52W TO 25N EARLY THIS MORNING. AN
ELONGATED MOIST TONGUE TRAILS THIS WAVE AS A LONG FETCH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONNECTS THIS AXIS TO THE ITCZ...WITH PWAT
PEAKING AROUND 50-60MM.

AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
LEAD TO GRADUAL EROSION OF TUTT PATTERN TO THE NORTH AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY SHEARS AWAY. AT MID LEVELS...RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS TO SLOWLY LIFT AS THE CYCLE PROGRESSES...MOVING NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK. AS THE RIDGE PULLS AWAY...GFS
SHOWS GRADUAL EROSION OF MID LEVEL CAP INVERSION THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. LOOKS LIKE WEAKENING OF CAP INVERSION WILL COINCIDE WITH
ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL WAVE. THE WAVE REACHES THE USVI BY MIDDAY ON
THURSDAY...AND PULLS ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE DAY INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THIS IS ABOUT SIX HOURS SLOWER THAN
WHAT THE GFS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED. THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...FAVORS A
FASTER PROGRESSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WAVE CROSSING
PUERTO RICO DURING MAX HEATING ON THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH FASTER...THE
ECMWF AGREES WITH THE GFS ON MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SLOWER WEAKENING OF MID LEVEL CAP MIGHT
BE THE REASON FOR THIS THIS. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PROJECT
PWAT OF NEARLY TWO INCHES AS THE WAVE MAKES LANDFALL...WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT VALUE TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE EVENING ON FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY IS GOING TO BE THE WETTER DAY. THE UKMET AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOW MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAXIMA
OF NEARLY AN INCH ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. CONSIDERING HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT VALUE AND WEAKENING OF THE TRADE WIND CAP WE WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE A LOT MORE THAN THAT.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 151829
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

AT 15 UTC HURRICANE EDOUARD CENTERED NEAR 27.3N 55.5W...WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 966 HPA.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TO THE NW AT 12KT.

AT 15 UTC HURRICANE ODILE CENTERED NEAR 24.7N 111.3W...WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 HPA.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 12KT.

DISCUSSION FROM SEPTEMBER 15/00UTC: PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN STATES OF MEXICO IS PROVIDING THE
VENTILATION AND STEERING FLOW TO HURRICANE ODILE. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON TUESDAY AND
DOWNGRADE TO A DEPRESSION EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL
FORCING ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 75-125MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
250-300MM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THROUGH WEDNESDAY THIS WILL
DECREASE TO 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-100MM.
FURTHERMORE...FEEDER BAND CONVECTION IS TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS
OF MEXICO...WITH ACTIVITY ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE BETWEEN WESTERN
CHIHUAHUA-SONORA AND SINALOA-NAYARIT TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM.

A TUTT TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF-SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. RIDGE TO THE WEST AND NORTH IS TO
STEER THIS VORTEX SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO...WEAKENING AS IT MEANDER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO LATER ON
TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH IS TO INTERACT WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ
AS IT MEANDERS NORTH OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION. THIS IS TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS-GUATEMALA
TO SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 75-100MM. BUT AS THE TUTT MOVES AWAY TO CENTRAL
MEXICO THIS DECREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM EARLY
ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE TUTT MOVES TO CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY IT IS
TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM.
FARTHER SOUTH...ITCZ CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN NICARAGUA/COSTA
RICA TO PANAMA IS TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING
THIS IS TO DECREASE/INCREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

A TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ANCHORS A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. BEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS AROUND THE CLOSED
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES AS IT INTERACTS WITH SEA BREEZE RELATED CONVERGENCE. AT
MID LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...FAVORING A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP
INVERSION. THIS IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO DELAY ONSET OF
DEEP CONVECTION. HURRICANE EDOUARD LIES FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH NHC FORECASTING THIS CYCLONE TO CONTINUE TRACKING
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN IS TO
GENERALLY HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
IS TO THEN RAPIDLY SHEAR TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE POLAR TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.
ALTHOUGH BEST ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH...SOME
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS CONVERGENCE/DIURNAL HEATING OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA AND THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN PUERTO RICO. IN THIS AREA
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CUBA-THE BAHAMAS...WHILE OVER
JAMAICA MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT 15-25MM.

THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH EXTENDS EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...WHILE ANCHORING ON A CLOSED HIGH NEAR THE
ORINOCO DELTA REGION. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING THE HIGH WILL
RELOCATE TOWARDS LA GUAJIRA PENINSULA IN NORTHWEST VENEZUELA...BUT
RIDGE PATTERN IS TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA. THE GUIANAS WILL FALL ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF
THIS RIDGE...WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COASTAL
AREAS...WHERE WE EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
10MM. ACROSS CENTRAL VENEZUELA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
25W     28W    30W    33W    36W    39W    42W    45W     TW
46W     49W    52W    55W    58W    60W    63W    66W     TW
94W     95W    96W    97W    98W    DISP                  TUTT
INDCD.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 25W IS TO CONFINE TO THE ATLANTIC ITCZ OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER ON
WEDNESDAY... WHERE IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. THROUGH MID MORNING ON THURSDAY
IT PULLS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES TO PUERTO RICO...MOVING ACROSS
THE ISLAND DURING MAX HEATING. THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. FOLLOWING WAVE
PASSAGE...A LONG FETCH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS TO ESTABLISH...WITH
ITCZ MOISTURE LIFTING ACROSS THE FRENCH ISLES TO PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLES...TO SUSTAIN A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE LEEWARD/FRENCH ISLES AND INTO PUERTO RICO/PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA. LOOKS LIKE THIS IS GOING TO COINCIDE WITH IMPROVING
MJO CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH CLIMO MODELS
SHOWING NEUTRAL TO WEAK DIVERGENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN DURING THE NEXT 15-20 DAYS. AS A RESULT...TRAILING
CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS IS TO SUSTAIN ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

TUTT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF SUSTAINS AN INDUCED PERTURBATION IN
THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. THIS TENDS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO. MEANWHILE...EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP AS THIS INTERACTS WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ...TO
RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-100MM.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 151829
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

AT 15 UTC HURRICANE EDOUARD CENTERED NEAR 27.3N 55.5W...WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 966 HPA.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TO THE NW AT 12KT.

AT 15 UTC HURRICANE ODILE CENTERED NEAR 24.7N 111.3W...WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 HPA.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 12KT.

DISCUSSION FROM SEPTEMBER 15/00UTC: PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN STATES OF MEXICO IS PROVIDING THE
VENTILATION AND STEERING FLOW TO HURRICANE ODILE. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON TUESDAY AND
DOWNGRADE TO A DEPRESSION EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL
FORCING ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 75-125MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
250-300MM THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THROUGH WEDNESDAY THIS WILL
DECREASE TO 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-100MM.
FURTHERMORE...FEEDER BAND CONVECTION IS TO AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS
OF MEXICO...WITH ACTIVITY ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE BETWEEN WESTERN
CHIHUAHUA-SONORA AND SINALOA-NAYARIT TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM.

A TUTT TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF-SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. RIDGE TO THE WEST AND NORTH IS TO
STEER THIS VORTEX SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO...WEAKENING AS IT MEANDER OVER CENTRAL MEXICO LATER ON
TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH IS TO INTERACT WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ
AS IT MEANDERS NORTH OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION. THIS IS TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS-GUATEMALA
TO SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 75-100MM. BUT AS THE TUTT MOVES AWAY TO CENTRAL
MEXICO THIS DECREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM EARLY
ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE TUTT MOVES TO CENTRAL MEXICO ON TUESDAY IT IS
TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM.
FARTHER SOUTH...ITCZ CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN NICARAGUA/COSTA
RICA TO PANAMA IS TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY MORNING
THIS IS TO DECREASE/INCREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

A TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ANCHORS A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. BEST
DYNAMICAL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS AROUND THE CLOSED
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES AS IT INTERACTS WITH SEA BREEZE RELATED CONVERGENCE. AT
MID LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...FAVORING A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP
INVERSION. THIS IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO DELAY ONSET OF
DEEP CONVECTION. HURRICANE EDOUARD LIES FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH NHC FORECASTING THIS CYCLONE TO CONTINUE TRACKING
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. BROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN IS TO
GENERALLY HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT
IS TO THEN RAPIDLY SHEAR TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE POLAR TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN USA.
ALTHOUGH BEST ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED TO THE NORTH...SOME
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS CONVERGENCE/DIURNAL HEATING OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA AND THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL IN PUERTO RICO. IN THIS AREA
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CUBA-THE BAHAMAS...WHILE OVER
JAMAICA MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT 15-25MM.

THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH EXTENDS EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...WHILE ANCHORING ON A CLOSED HIGH NEAR THE
ORINOCO DELTA REGION. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING THE HIGH WILL
RELOCATE TOWARDS LA GUAJIRA PENINSULA IN NORTHWEST VENEZUELA...BUT
RIDGE PATTERN IS TO HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA. THE GUIANAS WILL FALL ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF
THIS RIDGE...WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO COASTAL
AREAS...WHERE WE EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
10MM. ACROSS CENTRAL VENEZUELA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
25W     28W    30W    33W    36W    39W    42W    45W     TW
46W     49W    52W    55W    58W    60W    63W    66W     TW
94W     95W    96W    97W    98W    DISP                  TUTT
INDCD.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 25W IS TO CONFINE TO THE ATLANTIC ITCZ OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER ON
WEDNESDAY... WHERE IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. THROUGH MID MORNING ON THURSDAY
IT PULLS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES TO PUERTO RICO...MOVING ACROSS
THE ISLAND DURING MAX HEATING. THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. FOLLOWING WAVE
PASSAGE...A LONG FETCH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS TO ESTABLISH...WITH
ITCZ MOISTURE LIFTING ACROSS THE FRENCH ISLES TO PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLES...TO SUSTAIN A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE LEEWARD/FRENCH ISLES AND INTO PUERTO RICO/PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA. LOOKS LIKE THIS IS GOING TO COINCIDE WITH IMPROVING
MJO CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH CLIMO MODELS
SHOWING NEUTRAL TO WEAK DIVERGENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN DURING THE NEXT 15-20 DAYS. AS A RESULT...TRAILING
CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS IS TO SUSTAIN ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

TUTT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF SUSTAINS AN INDUCED PERTURBATION IN
THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. THIS TENDS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO. MEANWHILE...EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP AS THIS INTERACTS WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ...TO
RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-100MM.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







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