000
FXUS01 KWBC 191957
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

VALID 00Z MON MAY 20 2013 - 00Z WED MAY 22 2013

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR EASTERN KANSAS AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...

QUASI-STATIONARY STORM OVER THE PLAINS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.  IN ADDITION, LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER UPPER MIDWEST, WANING TO RAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE STORM AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND MORNING HOURS, THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY.

A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ROTATE
JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE ENERGY WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE, MUCH WEAKER UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.


ZIEGENFELDER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$

000
FXUS01 KWBC 190810
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
409 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

VALID 12Z SUN MAY 19 2013 - 12Z TUE MAY 21 2013

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR EASTERN KANSAS AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.....

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR LOWER MISSOURI AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

...GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...

DEEP...SLOW-MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...A WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
MOISTURE-LADEN SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE MISSOURI AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE
PERSISTENCE OF THIS PATTERN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. PLEASE REFER TO THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

OUT WEST...A DEEP TROUGH AND MOIST ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUT AHEAD
OF THIS TROUGH...A QUICK WARM UP IS EXPECTED...FOLLOWED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
WASHINGTON...NORTHERN OREGON...IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. LITTLE
IF ANY RELIEF FROM THE RATHER WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WITH THE
TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AS A BROAD WARM FRONT AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.

VOJTESAK

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$