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000
FXUS01 KWBC 220824
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
323 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

VALID 12Z MON DEC 22 2014 - 12Z WED DEC 24 2014

***DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEK***

***PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE NORTHWEST U.S.***

***SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE GULF COAST STATES***


THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE
A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES.  A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED
LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MONDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WHERE WINTRY PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FROM SOUTH DAKOTA
EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY, A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD IN TIME WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF IT.  SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE ALONG THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COASTS ON TUESDAY.  A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM TENNESSEE TO VIRGINIA AS
THE WARMER AIR LIFTS NORTHWARD.

OUT WEST, A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ALSO IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AS THE
CURRENT STORM SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST.

HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 220824
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
323 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

VALID 12Z MON DEC 22 2014 - 12Z WED DEC 24 2014

***DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEK***

***PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE NORTHWEST U.S.***

***SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE GULF COAST STATES***


THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE
A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES.  A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED
LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MONDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WHERE WINTRY PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FROM SOUTH DAKOTA
EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE COUNTRY, A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD IN TIME WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF IT.  SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE ALONG THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COASTS ON TUESDAY.  A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM TENNESSEE TO VIRGINIA AS
THE WARMER AIR LIFTS NORTHWARD.

OUT WEST, A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MORE
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  SNOW SHOWERS ARE
ALSO IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AS THE
CURRENT STORM SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST.

HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 212019
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
318 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

VALID 00Z MON DEC 22 2014 - 00Z WED DEC 24 2014

...A WINTER STORM SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
REGION...

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES...

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ALONG THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
GULF COAST...


THE UPPER PATTERN ENTERING NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE WITH A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY. INITIAL IMPULSES CURRENTLY RACING ACROSS THE UPPER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL HELP CARVE OUT A PRONOUNCED CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST WHERE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM
AT HAND IS NOT FORECAST TO GET THE BEST MOISTURE SUPPORT GIVEN A
BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL ROB SOME OF THE INCOMING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HOWEVER, THE UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW MOVING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A LONGER TIME FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. THE WPC WINTER WEATHER GRAPHICS SUGGEST A
WIDESPREAD AXIS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ANYWHERE FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN/UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL PERSIST WITH A FOCUS
ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES AND WASHINGTON/OREGON CASCADES. STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW WILL TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE INLAND WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AFFECTING THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY.
WHILE NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS RECENT DAYS, THE FORECAST
SUGGESTS ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
LOOKING FARTHER INLAND, MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE
WASATCH AND COLORADO ROCKIES WITH 1 TO 2 FOOT AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LIFT WITH THE
MID-LEVEL ENERGY PASSING OVERHEAD IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENHANCED
VERTICAL MOTIONS ALONG THE SURGING COLD FRONT.

GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH ANCHORING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY,
A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD IN TIME WITH
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ALONG THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF
COASTS ON TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER
OUTLOOK.

A WET PERIOD IS BEING FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES UP
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS CONTINUED
TO DRIVE ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GRADUALLY
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL
HELP CARRY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. LOCATIONS ON THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MAY SEE PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN GIVEN FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. THIS IS PRIMARILY THE CASE OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING.


RUBIN-OSTER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 212019
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
318 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

VALID 00Z MON DEC 22 2014 - 00Z WED DEC 24 2014

...A WINTER STORM SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
REGION...

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES...

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ALONG THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
GULF COAST...


THE UPPER PATTERN ENTERING NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME OF HIGHER
AMPLITUDE WITH A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY. INITIAL IMPULSES CURRENTLY RACING ACROSS THE UPPER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL HELP CARVE OUT A PRONOUNCED CLOSED LOW
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST WHERE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM
AT HAND IS NOT FORECAST TO GET THE BEST MOISTURE SUPPORT GIVEN A
BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL ROB SOME OF THE INCOMING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HOWEVER, THE UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW MOVING WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A LONGER TIME FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. THE WPC WINTER WEATHER GRAPHICS SUGGEST A
WIDESPREAD AXIS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ANYWHERE FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN/UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL PERSIST WITH A FOCUS
ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES AND WASHINGTON/OREGON CASCADES. STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW WILL TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE INLAND WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AFFECTING THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY.
WHILE NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS RECENT DAYS, THE FORECAST
SUGGESTS ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
LOOKING FARTHER INLAND, MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE
WASATCH AND COLORADO ROCKIES WITH 1 TO 2 FOOT AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG LIFT WITH THE
MID-LEVEL ENERGY PASSING OVERHEAD IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENHANCED
VERTICAL MOTIONS ALONG THE SURGING COLD FRONT.

GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH ANCHORING THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY,
A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD IN TIME WITH
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ALONG THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF
COASTS ON TUESDAY BASED ON THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER
OUTLOOK.

A WET PERIOD IS BEING FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES UP
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS CONTINUED
TO DRIVE ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GRADUALLY
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ALONG THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL
HELP CARRY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. LOCATIONS ON THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD MAY SEE PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN GIVEN FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. THIS IS PRIMARILY THE CASE OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING.


RUBIN-OSTER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 210830
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
330 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

VALID 12Z SUN DEC 21 2014 - 12Z TUE DEC 23 2014

...ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S...

...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN THE SOUTHEAST...


AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS CONTINUING TO TRANSPORT A PLETHORA OF
MOISTURE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THIS WILL TRANSPIRE INTO HEAVY RAINS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,
AND OROGRAPHIC DRIVEN HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CASCADES AND ROCKIES.
A PACIFIC FRONT THAT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL KEEP PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN ACTIVE WEATHER DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE IS
CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING ON SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST OF
WASHINGTON, OREGON, AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA (SEE THE WPC EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAIL).  IN ADDITION, THE WPC WINTER
WEATHER DESK HAS INDICATED THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2
FEET ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, IN ADDITION TO THE
CASCADES, IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY MONDAY NIGHT, EXPECT LINGERING
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

A STALLED STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
ATLANTIC IS BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTLINE EASTWARD TOWARD THE COASTLINE OF
THE CAROLINAS.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT, LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONCENTRATE ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  THIS
BAND OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA ON MONDAY.  BY MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, SHOWERS CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MOST OF FLORIDA.

FOR THE MOST PART, TEMPERATURES WILL STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, SOUTHEAST, AND EAST COAST CAN
EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.


FANNING

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







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