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000
FXCA20 KWBC 301032
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
631 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. POLAR TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PRESS AGAINST THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. UNDER PRESSURE FROM THIS
TROUGH...THE RIDGE IS COLLAPSING OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WHILE A WEAK/SHORT WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. AT LOW LEVELS...THE ASSOCIATED FRONT TRAILS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/TURKS... EASTERN CUBA TO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. AN INDUCED/PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH
ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO A COL NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WHILE A
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE FORMED OVER HISPANIOLA. PER SATELLITE
DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS TAKING
PLACE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT FAR TO THE NORTH...WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE CLUSTERING ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH FAVORING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PR/USVI.

MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLES. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE IS TO WEAKEN...GFS SHOWS A
FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP INVERSION TO HOLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BUT THIS IS TO ALSO CRUMBLE LATER IN THE WEEK AS A
DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH ENVELOPS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. AT LOW LEVELS...SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY LOSES ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR TO THE
NORTH. INDUCED/ PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS TO THEN WEAKEN DURING THE
DAY...MEANWHILE FAVORING LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO/USVI. LATER IN THE DAY THE TROUGH DAMPENS...AND A
LIGHT MEANDERING FLOW IS TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PWAT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH AN UPWARD
TREND EXPECTED BETWEEN WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN CONTENT
INCREASES TO 30-40MM.

CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ACTIVE/BETTER
ORGANIZED ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DENSE CI/CS
SHIELD...HOWEVER...MIGHT DELAY ONSET OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. LATER
IN THE WEEK...THE INFLOW OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND FAVORABLE JET
DYNAMICS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN AREAS OF ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION...WITH MOST INTENSE ON WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THEY SAY...APRIL SHOWERS
BRING MAY FLOWERS.

DISCUSSION FROM MARCH 30/00 UTC:

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96        TYPE
NONE

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
NANDA...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 301032
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
631 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. POLAR TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PRESS AGAINST THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. UNDER PRESSURE FROM THIS
TROUGH...THE RIDGE IS COLLAPSING OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WHILE A WEAK/SHORT WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. AT LOW LEVELS...THE ASSOCIATED FRONT TRAILS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/TURKS... EASTERN CUBA TO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. AN INDUCED/PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH
ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO A COL NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WHILE A
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE FORMED OVER HISPANIOLA. PER SATELLITE
DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS TAKING
PLACE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT FAR TO THE NORTH...WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE CLUSTERING ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH FAVORING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PR/USVI.

MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLES. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE IS TO WEAKEN...GFS SHOWS A
FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP INVERSION TO HOLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BUT THIS IS TO ALSO CRUMBLE LATER IN THE WEEK AS A
DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH ENVELOPS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. AT LOW LEVELS...SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY LOSES ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR TO THE
NORTH. INDUCED/ PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS TO THEN WEAKEN DURING THE
DAY...MEANWHILE FAVORING LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO/USVI. LATER IN THE DAY THE TROUGH DAMPENS...AND A
LIGHT MEANDERING FLOW IS TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PWAT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH AN UPWARD
TREND EXPECTED BETWEEN WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN CONTENT
INCREASES TO 30-40MM.

CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ACTIVE/BETTER
ORGANIZED ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DENSE CI/CS
SHIELD...HOWEVER...MIGHT DELAY ONSET OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. LATER
IN THE WEEK...THE INFLOW OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND FAVORABLE JET
DYNAMICS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN AREAS OF ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION...WITH MOST INTENSE ON WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THEY SAY...APRIL SHOWERS
BRING MAY FLOWERS.

DISCUSSION FROM MARCH 30/00 UTC:

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96        TYPE
NONE

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
NANDA...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 301032
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
631 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. POLAR TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO PRESS AGAINST THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. UNDER PRESSURE FROM THIS
TROUGH...THE RIDGE IS COLLAPSING OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WHILE A WEAK/SHORT WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. AT LOW LEVELS...THE ASSOCIATED FRONT TRAILS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/TURKS... EASTERN CUBA TO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. AN INDUCED/PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH
ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO A COL NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WHILE A
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE FORMED OVER HISPANIOLA. PER SATELLITE
DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS TAKING
PLACE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT FAR TO THE NORTH...WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE CLUSTERING ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH FAVORING SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PR/USVI.

MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLES. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE IS TO WEAKEN...GFS SHOWS A
FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL CAP INVERSION TO HOLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. BUT THIS IS TO ALSO CRUMBLE LATER IN THE WEEK AS A
DEEPER MID LEVEL TROUGH ENVELOPS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. AT LOW LEVELS...SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY LOSES ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR TO THE
NORTH. INDUCED/ PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS TO THEN WEAKEN DURING THE
DAY...MEANWHILE FAVORING LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO/USVI. LATER IN THE DAY THE TROUGH DAMPENS...AND A
LIGHT MEANDERING FLOW IS TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PWAT
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH AN UPWARD
TREND EXPECTED BETWEEN WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN CONTENT
INCREASES TO 30-40MM.

CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ACTIVE/BETTER
ORGANIZED ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...DENSE CI/CS
SHIELD...HOWEVER...MIGHT DELAY ONSET OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. LATER
IN THE WEEK...THE INFLOW OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND FAVORABLE JET
DYNAMICS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN AREAS OF ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION...WITH MOST INTENSE ON WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THEY SAY...APRIL SHOWERS
BRING MAY FLOWERS.

DISCUSSION FROM MARCH 30/00 UTC:

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96        TYPE
NONE

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
NANDA...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






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