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000
FXCA20 KWBC 191844
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

DISCUSSION FROM AUGUST 19/00UTC: MID-UPPER RIDGE CENTERS OVER
SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA/SOUTHERN SONORA/BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN MEXICO.
IN THE MEAN TIME...TUTT LOW CENTERS OFF THE COAST OF TAMAULIPAS.
RIDGE IS TO HOLD THROUGH THE CYCLE WHILE TUTT LOW PRESSES AGAINST
IT...RETROGRESSING INTO GUANAJUATO/SAN LUIS POTOSI THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MEXICO...WHERE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SEASONALLY ACTIVE.
EXPECTING AN ACTIVATING TREND THROUGH THE CYCLE ACROSS THE SIERRA
MADRE OCCIDENTAL...WHERE MAXIMA WILL INCREASE FROM 20-40MM/DAY ON
TUESDAY-EARLY WEDNESDAY...TO 40-80MM/DAY ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SINALOA/WESTERN DURANGO/WESTERN CHIHUAHUA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...EXPECTING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 20-50MM/DAY IN DIURNAL CONVECTION.

A TRAIN OF TUTTS AND UPPER RIDGES DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.
ONE OF THE TUTTS CENTERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA AND WILL
RETROGRESS INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS REGION...TO CENTER OVER THE
ISLANDS OF NORTHERN HONDURAS BY THURSDAY AND THEN MEANDER IN THE
REGION. THE TUTT IS INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TRADES
TO AFFECT COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA ON TUESDAY. AS WAVE PROGRESSES
WESTWARD IN PHASE WITH TUTT...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
TO AFFECT BOTH COUNTRIES WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING STRONGEST CONVECTION
TO AFFECT EL SALVADOR/SOUTHERN GUATEMALA WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS.
OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA EXPECTING A DECREASE TO MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. BY THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...MODELS LIKE TO ORGANIZE A
BROAD CYCLONE ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL STIMULATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE COASTS OF WESTERN EL SALVADOR/SOUTHERN GUATEMALA INTO
CHIAPAS/OAXACA IN MEXICO. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING TO
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

A RIDGE CENTERS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND WILL
HOLD WHILE SLOWLY MEANDERING TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT LOW-LEVELS...A REGION OF WEAK TRADE
WIND CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS LINGERING
OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAIGHT. THIS IS
LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. EXPECTING THESE TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...DECREASING
GRADUALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND RAPIDLY AFTERWARDS. ACTIVITY WILL
RETROGRESS SLOWLY...WHICH WILL MOVE THE FOCUS OF THE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO CUBA BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM/DAY ACROSS CUBA...WITH A DECREASING TREND OVER THE BAHAMAS
BY THEN.

A LARGE TUTT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TUTT WILL
RETROGRESS AND EXTEND ACROSS PUERTO RICO/USVI/LEEWARDS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...HISPANIOLA/SOUTHEASTERN CUBA INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TO THEN EXIT INTO JAMAICA/CAYMAN ISLANDS. TUTT WILL
ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS...LEADING TO MAXIMA OF 15-25M/DAY ACROSS
PUERTO RICO/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...EXPECTING A SIMILAR DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH
AN INCREASE TO MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF
HAITI. ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY EXPECTING ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY
ALSO IN PUERTO RICO...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ALSO IN SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA/JAMAICA.

NEXT SYSTEMS OF INTEREST ARE TROPICAL WAVES ARRIVING IN THE BASIN.
THE FIRST WAVE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA. ON TUESDAY...IT WILL LEAD TO MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY
ACROSS THE GUIANAS. ON WEDNESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY...IT WILL PRODUCE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 20-30MM/DAY FROM THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECTING A
FURTHER INCREASE...WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA/CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES...AND 20-40MM/DAY IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

FURTHER WEST ACROSS COLOMBIA...ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. EXPECTING
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
WESTERN VENEZUELA/NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA DURING FRIDAY TO MAXIMA OF
15-25MM/DAY.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
41W      42W    44W    47W    50W    54W    57W    59W     TW
47W      50W    52W    55W    58W    61W    63W    66W     TW
84W      86W    89W    92W    95W    98W   100W   102W     TW

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W IS TO REACH FRENCH GUIANA LATER ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS SURINAME TO GUYANA THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A WAVE AT 47W IS REACHING FRENCH GUIANA ON TUESDAY. IT WILL THEN
PULL ACROSS SURINAME/GUYANA TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W IS ENTERING CENTRAL AMERICA. ACROSS COSTA
RICA/NICARAGUA IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN
HONDURAS-EL SALVADOR-SOUTHERN GUATEMALA EXPECTING SIMILAR
ACCUMULATIONS ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. OVER GUATEMALA-SOUTHERN
MEXICO IT IS TO THEN TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ON WEDNESDAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO EXPECT
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC(USA)
GALVEZ...WPC(USA)

$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 191844
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

DISCUSSION FROM AUGUST 19/00UTC: MID-UPPER RIDGE CENTERS OVER
SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA/SOUTHERN SONORA/BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN MEXICO.
IN THE MEAN TIME...TUTT LOW CENTERS OFF THE COAST OF TAMAULIPAS.
RIDGE IS TO HOLD THROUGH THE CYCLE WHILE TUTT LOW PRESSES AGAINST
IT...RETROGRESSING INTO GUANAJUATO/SAN LUIS POTOSI THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MEXICO...WHERE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SEASONALLY ACTIVE.
EXPECTING AN ACTIVATING TREND THROUGH THE CYCLE ACROSS THE SIERRA
MADRE OCCIDENTAL...WHERE MAXIMA WILL INCREASE FROM 20-40MM/DAY ON
TUESDAY-EARLY WEDNESDAY...TO 40-80MM/DAY ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SINALOA/WESTERN DURANGO/WESTERN CHIHUAHUA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...EXPECTING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 20-50MM/DAY IN DIURNAL CONVECTION.

A TRAIN OF TUTTS AND UPPER RIDGES DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.
ONE OF THE TUTTS CENTERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA AND WILL
RETROGRESS INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS REGION...TO CENTER OVER THE
ISLANDS OF NORTHERN HONDURAS BY THURSDAY AND THEN MEANDER IN THE
REGION. THE TUTT IS INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TRADES
TO AFFECT COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA ON TUESDAY. AS WAVE PROGRESSES
WESTWARD IN PHASE WITH TUTT...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
TO AFFECT BOTH COUNTRIES WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING STRONGEST CONVECTION
TO AFFECT EL SALVADOR/SOUTHERN GUATEMALA WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS.
OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA EXPECTING A DECREASE TO MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. BY THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...MODELS LIKE TO ORGANIZE A
BROAD CYCLONE ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL STIMULATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE COASTS OF WESTERN EL SALVADOR/SOUTHERN GUATEMALA INTO
CHIAPAS/OAXACA IN MEXICO. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING TO
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

A RIDGE CENTERS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND WILL
HOLD WHILE SLOWLY MEANDERING TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT LOW-LEVELS...A REGION OF WEAK TRADE
WIND CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS LINGERING
OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAIGHT. THIS IS
LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. EXPECTING THESE TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...DECREASING
GRADUALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND RAPIDLY AFTERWARDS. ACTIVITY WILL
RETROGRESS SLOWLY...WHICH WILL MOVE THE FOCUS OF THE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO CUBA BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM/DAY ACROSS CUBA...WITH A DECREASING TREND OVER THE BAHAMAS
BY THEN.

A LARGE TUTT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TUTT WILL
RETROGRESS AND EXTEND ACROSS PUERTO RICO/USVI/LEEWARDS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...HISPANIOLA/SOUTHEASTERN CUBA INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TO THEN EXIT INTO JAMAICA/CAYMAN ISLANDS. TUTT WILL
ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS...LEADING TO MAXIMA OF 15-25M/DAY ACROSS
PUERTO RICO/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...EXPECTING A SIMILAR DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH
AN INCREASE TO MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF
HAITI. ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY EXPECTING ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY
ALSO IN PUERTO RICO...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ALSO IN SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA/JAMAICA.

NEXT SYSTEMS OF INTEREST ARE TROPICAL WAVES ARRIVING IN THE BASIN.
THE FIRST WAVE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA. ON TUESDAY...IT WILL LEAD TO MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY
ACROSS THE GUIANAS. ON WEDNESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY...IT WILL PRODUCE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 20-30MM/DAY FROM THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECTING A
FURTHER INCREASE...WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA/CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES...AND 20-40MM/DAY IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

FURTHER WEST ACROSS COLOMBIA...ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. EXPECTING
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
WESTERN VENEZUELA/NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA DURING FRIDAY TO MAXIMA OF
15-25MM/DAY.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
41W      42W    44W    47W    50W    54W    57W    59W     TW
47W      50W    52W    55W    58W    61W    63W    66W     TW
84W      86W    89W    92W    95W    98W   100W   102W     TW

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W IS TO REACH FRENCH GUIANA LATER ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS SURINAME TO GUYANA THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A WAVE AT 47W IS REACHING FRENCH GUIANA ON TUESDAY. IT WILL THEN
PULL ACROSS SURINAME/GUYANA TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W IS ENTERING CENTRAL AMERICA. ACROSS COSTA
RICA/NICARAGUA IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN
HONDURAS-EL SALVADOR-SOUTHERN GUATEMALA EXPECTING SIMILAR
ACCUMULATIONS ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. OVER GUATEMALA-SOUTHERN
MEXICO IT IS TO THEN TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ON WEDNESDAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO EXPECT
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC(USA)
GALVEZ...WPC(USA)

$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 191822
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. RETROGRESSING
TUTT ENTERED THE LEEWARD ISLES EARLY THIS MORNING...ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WHILE TRIGGERING ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING WEST ACROSS THE VIRGIN AND PUERTO
RICO...TRIGGERING TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES AND
THE ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE INITIALIZED ALONG THE
ITCZ...WITH ONE ALONG 47W AND THE OTHER NEARING 40W/41W.

THE TUTT ALOFT...MEANWHILE...UNDER INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE
TO THE EAST...IS FORECAST TO RETROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLES THROUGH MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS TO THEN
LIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER WEST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BEST JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
EXPECTED ALONG 60W AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N. AS THE TUTT SWINGS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THIS WILL SUSTAIN A MID LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL DURING THE DAY
TODAY. IN THIS AREA...THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE ARE
SHOWING MAXIMA OF 2-3 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMA PEAKING AT
3-5 INCHES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING BROAD AREA OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TUTT. ON
WEDNESDAY THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...AFFECTING THE
VIRGIN ISLES-PUERTO RICO...WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MAXIMA OF LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE VIRGIN ISLES/EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. BUT WITH A LARGER FOOTPRINT... EXPECTING HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS SAINT CROIX. OVER PUERTO RICO...IN A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING
FLOW...THE MODELS AGREE ON MOST ACTIVE CLUSTERING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL-NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. ALTHOUGH RISK OF
SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS LOW...HAVING A TUTT ALOFT IS ALWAYS OF
CONCERN.

TROPICAL WAVES ARE TO THEN FOLLOW...WITH THE WESTERNMOST ENTERING
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER ON THURSDAY. THIS THEN TAKES A BEELINE
ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH MODELS PROJECTING
MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION FAR TO THE SOUTH. THE NEXT PERTURBATION IS
THE ONE OF CONCERN...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET SHOWING
PERTURBATION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT REACHES THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS PROJECT HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...RANGING BETWEEN 3-6 INCHES. BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON ITS INTENSITY AND TRAJECTORY.


DISCUSSION FROM AUGUST 19/00UTC: MID-UPPER RIDGE CENTERS OVER
SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA/SOUTHERN SONORA/BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN MEXICO.
IN THE MEAN TIME...TUTT LOW CENTERS OFF THE COAST OF TAMAULIPAS.
RIDGE IS TO HOLD THROUGH THE CYCLE WHILE TUTT LOW PRESSES AGAINST
IT...RETROGRESSING INTO GUANAJUATO/SAN LUIS POTOSI THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MEXICO...WHERE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SEASONALLY ACTIVE.
EXPECTING AN ACTIVATING TREND THROUGH THE CYCLE ACROSS THE SIERRA
MADRE OCCIDENTAL...WHERE MAXIMA WILL INCREASE FROM 20-40MM/DAY ON
TUESDAY-EARLY WEDNESDAY...TO 40-80MM/DAY ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SINALOA/WESTERN DURANGO/WESTERN CHIHUAHUA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...EXPECTING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 20-50MM/DAY IN DIURNAL CONVECTION.

A TRAIN OF TUTTS AND UPPER RIDGES DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.
ONE OF THE TUTTS CENTERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA AND WILL
RETROGRESS INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS REGION...TO CENTER OVER THE
ISLANDS OF NORTHERN HONDURAS BY THURSDAY AND THEN MEANDER IN THE
REGION. THE TUTT IS INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TRADES
TO AFFECT COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA ON TUESDAY. AS WAVE PROGRESSES
WESTWARD IN PHASE WITH TUTT...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
TO AFFECT BOTH COUNTRIES WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING STRONGEST CONVECTION
TO AFFECT EL SALVADOR/SOUTHERN GUATEMALA WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS.
OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA EXPECTING A DECREASE TO MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. BY THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...MODELS LIKE TO ORGANIZE A
BROAD CYCLONE ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL STIMULATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE COASTS OF WESTERN EL SALVADOR/SOUTHERN GUATEMALA INTO
CHIAPAS/OAXACA IN MEXICO. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING TO
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

A RIDGE CENTERS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND WILL
HOLD WHILE SLOWLY MEANDERING TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT LOW-LEVELS...A REGION OF WEAK TRADE
WIND CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS LINGERING
OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAIGHT. THIS IS
LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. EXPECTING THESE TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...DECREASING
GRADUALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND RAPIDLY AFTERWARDS. ACTIVITY WILL
RETROGRESS SLOWLY...WHICH WILL MOVE THE FOCUS OF THE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO CUBA BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM/DAY ACROSS CUBA...WITH A DECREASING TREND OVER THE BAHAMAS
BY THEN.

A LARGE TUTT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TUTT WILL
RETROGRESS AND EXTEND ACROSS PUERTO RICO/USVI/LEEWARDS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...HISPANIOLA/SOUTHEASTERN CUBA INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TO THEN EXIT INTO JAMAICA/CAYMAN ISLANDS. TUTT WILL
ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS...LEADING TO MAXIMA OF 15-25M/DAY ACROSS
PUERTO RICO/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...EXPECTING A SIMILAR DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH
AN INCREASE TO MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF
HAITI. ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY EXPECTING ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY
ALSO IN PUERTO RICO...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ALSO IN SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA/JAMAICA.

NEXT SYSTEMS OF INTEREST ARE TROPICAL WAVES ARRIVING IN THE BASIN.
THE FIRST WAVE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA. ON TUESDAY...IT WILL LEAD TO MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY
ACROSS THE GUIANAS. ON WEDNESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY...IT WILL PRODUCE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 20-30MM/DAY FROM THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECTING A
FURTHER INCREASE...WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA/CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES...AND 20-40MM/DAY IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

FURTHER WEST ACROSS COLOMBIA...ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. EXPECTING
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
WESTERN VENEZUELA/NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA DURING FRIDAY TO MAXIMA OF
15-25MM/DAY.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
41W      42W    44W    47W    50W    54W    57W    59W     TW
47W      50W    52W    55W    58W    61W    63W    66W     TW
84W      86W    89W    92W    95W    98W   100W   102W     TW

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W IS TO REACH FRENCH GUIANA LATER ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS SURINAME TO GUYANA THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A WAVE AT 47W IS REACHING FRENCH GUIANA ON TUESDAY. IT WILL THEN
PULL ACROSS SURINAME/GUYANA TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W IS ENTERING CENTRAL AMERICA. ACROSS COSTA
RICA/NICARAGUA IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN
HONDURAS-EL SALVADOR-SOUTHERN GUATEMALA EXPECTING SIMILAR
ACCUMULATIONS ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. OVER GUATEMALA-SOUTHERN
MEXICO IT IS TO THEN TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ON WEDNESDAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO EXPECT
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC(USA)
GALVEZ...WPC(USA)

$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 191822
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. RETROGRESSING
TUTT ENTERED THE LEEWARD ISLES EARLY THIS MORNING...ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WHILE TRIGGERING ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING WEST ACROSS THE VIRGIN AND PUERTO
RICO...TRIGGERING TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES AND
THE ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE INITIALIZED ALONG THE
ITCZ...WITH ONE ALONG 47W AND THE OTHER NEARING 40W/41W.

THE TUTT ALOFT...MEANWHILE...UNDER INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE
TO THE EAST...IS FORECAST TO RETROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLES THROUGH MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS TO THEN
LIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER WEST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BEST JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
EXPECTED ALONG 60W AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N. AS THE TUTT SWINGS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THIS WILL SUSTAIN A MID LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL DURING THE DAY
TODAY. IN THIS AREA...THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE ARE
SHOWING MAXIMA OF 2-3 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMA PEAKING AT
3-5 INCHES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING BROAD AREA OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TUTT. ON
WEDNESDAY THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...AFFECTING THE
VIRGIN ISLES-PUERTO RICO...WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MAXIMA OF LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE VIRGIN ISLES/EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. BUT WITH A LARGER FOOTPRINT... EXPECTING HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS SAINT CROIX. OVER PUERTO RICO...IN A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING
FLOW...THE MODELS AGREE ON MOST ACTIVE CLUSTERING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL-NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. ALTHOUGH RISK OF
SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS LOW...HAVING A TUTT ALOFT IS ALWAYS OF
CONCERN.

TROPICAL WAVES ARE TO THEN FOLLOW...WITH THE WESTERNMOST ENTERING
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER ON THURSDAY. THIS THEN TAKES A BEELINE
ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH MODELS PROJECTING
MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION FAR TO THE SOUTH. THE NEXT PERTURBATION IS
THE ONE OF CONCERN...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET SHOWING
PERTURBATION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT REACHES THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS PROJECT HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...RANGING BETWEEN 3-6 INCHES. BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON ITS INTENSITY AND TRAJECTORY.


DISCUSSION FROM AUGUST 19/00UTC: MID-UPPER RIDGE CENTERS OVER
SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA/SOUTHERN SONORA/BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN MEXICO.
IN THE MEAN TIME...TUTT LOW CENTERS OFF THE COAST OF TAMAULIPAS.
RIDGE IS TO HOLD THROUGH THE CYCLE WHILE TUTT LOW PRESSES AGAINST
IT...RETROGRESSING INTO GUANAJUATO/SAN LUIS POTOSI THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MEXICO...WHERE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SEASONALLY ACTIVE.
EXPECTING AN ACTIVATING TREND THROUGH THE CYCLE ACROSS THE SIERRA
MADRE OCCIDENTAL...WHERE MAXIMA WILL INCREASE FROM 20-40MM/DAY ON
TUESDAY-EARLY WEDNESDAY...TO 40-80MM/DAY ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN SINALOA/WESTERN DURANGO/WESTERN CHIHUAHUA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...EXPECTING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 20-50MM/DAY IN DIURNAL CONVECTION.

A TRAIN OF TUTTS AND UPPER RIDGES DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.
ONE OF THE TUTTS CENTERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA AND WILL
RETROGRESS INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS REGION...TO CENTER OVER THE
ISLANDS OF NORTHERN HONDURAS BY THURSDAY AND THEN MEANDER IN THE
REGION. THE TUTT IS INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TRADES
TO AFFECT COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA ON TUESDAY. AS WAVE PROGRESSES
WESTWARD IN PHASE WITH TUTT...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
TO AFFECT BOTH COUNTRIES WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING STRONGEST CONVECTION
TO AFFECT EL SALVADOR/SOUTHERN GUATEMALA WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS.
OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA EXPECTING A DECREASE TO MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. BY THURSDAY-EARLY FRIDAY...MODELS LIKE TO ORGANIZE A
BROAD CYCLONE ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WILL STIMULATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE COASTS OF WESTERN EL SALVADOR/SOUTHERN GUATEMALA INTO
CHIAPAS/OAXACA IN MEXICO. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING TO
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

A RIDGE CENTERS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND WILL
HOLD WHILE SLOWLY MEANDERING TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT LOW-LEVELS...A REGION OF WEAK TRADE
WIND CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS LINGERING
OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA STRAIGHT. THIS IS
LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. EXPECTING THESE TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...DECREASING
GRADUALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND RAPIDLY AFTERWARDS. ACTIVITY WILL
RETROGRESS SLOWLY...WHICH WILL MOVE THE FOCUS OF THE MOST
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO CUBA BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM/DAY ACROSS CUBA...WITH A DECREASING TREND OVER THE BAHAMAS
BY THEN.

A LARGE TUTT IS APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TUTT WILL
RETROGRESS AND EXTEND ACROSS PUERTO RICO/USVI/LEEWARDS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...HISPANIOLA/SOUTHEASTERN CUBA INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TO THEN EXIT INTO JAMAICA/CAYMAN ISLANDS. TUTT WILL
ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS...LEADING TO MAXIMA OF 15-25M/DAY ACROSS
PUERTO RICO/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...EXPECTING A SIMILAR DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION WITH
AN INCREASE TO MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF
HAITI. ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY EXPECTING ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY
ALSO IN PUERTO RICO...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ALSO IN SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA/JAMAICA.

NEXT SYSTEMS OF INTEREST ARE TROPICAL WAVES ARRIVING IN THE BASIN.
THE FIRST WAVE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA. ON TUESDAY...IT WILL LEAD TO MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY
ACROSS THE GUIANAS. ON WEDNESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY...IT WILL PRODUCE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 20-30MM/DAY FROM THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECTING A
FURTHER INCREASE...WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA/CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES...AND 20-40MM/DAY IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

FURTHER WEST ACROSS COLOMBIA...ACTIVE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. EXPECTING
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
WESTERN VENEZUELA/NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA DURING FRIDAY TO MAXIMA OF
15-25MM/DAY.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
41W      42W    44W    47W    50W    54W    57W    59W     TW
47W      50W    52W    55W    58W    61W    63W    66W     TW
84W      86W    89W    92W    95W    98W   100W   102W     TW

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W IS TO REACH FRENCH GUIANA LATER ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS SURINAME TO GUYANA THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

A WAVE AT 47W IS REACHING FRENCH GUIANA ON TUESDAY. IT WILL THEN
PULL ACROSS SURINAME/GUYANA TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND CENTRAL VENEZUELA ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W IS ENTERING CENTRAL AMERICA. ACROSS COSTA
RICA/NICARAGUA IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER SOUTHERN
HONDURAS-EL SALVADOR-SOUTHERN GUATEMALA EXPECTING SIMILAR
ACCUMULATIONS ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. OVER GUATEMALA-SOUTHERN
MEXICO IT IS TO THEN TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ON WEDNESDAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO EXPECT
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC(USA)
GALVEZ...WPC(USA)

$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 191121
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
721 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. RETROGRESSING
TUTT ENTERED THE LEEWARD ISLES EARLY THIS MORNING...ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WHILE TRIGGERING ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING WEST ACROSS THE VIRGIN AND PUERTO
RICO...TRIGGERING TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES AND
THE ATLANTIC/CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE INITIALIZED ALONG THE
ITCZ...WITH ONE ALONG 47W AND THE OTHER NEARING 40W/41W.

THE TUTT ALOFT...MEANWHILE...UNDER INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE
TO THE EAST...IS FORECAST TO RETROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLES THROUGH MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS TO THEN
LIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER WEST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BEST JET DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
EXPECTED ALONG 60W AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N. AS THE TUTT SWINGS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...THIS WILL SUSTAIN A MID LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL DURING THE DAY
TODAY. IN THIS AREA...THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE ARE
SHOWING MAXIMA OF 2-3 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMA PEAKING AT
3-5 INCHES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING BROAD AREA OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TUTT. ON
WEDNESDAY THE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...AFFECTING THE
VIRGIN ISLES-PUERTO RICO...WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING
MAXIMA OF LESS THAN AN INCH OVER THE VIRGIN ISLES/EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. BUT WITH A LARGER FOOTPRINT... EXPECTING HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS SAINT CROIX. OVER PUERTO RICO...IN A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING
FLOW...THE MODELS AGREE ON MOST ACTIVE CLUSTERING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL-NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. ALTHOUGH RISK OF
SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS LOW...HAVING A TUTT ALOFT IS ALWAYS OF
CONCERN.

TROPICAL WAVES ARE TO THEN FOLLOW...WITH THE WESTERNMOST ENTERING
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER ON THURSDAY. THIS THEN TAKES A BEELINE
ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH MODELS PROJECTING
MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION FAR TO THE SOUTH. THE NEXT PERTURBATION IS
THE ONE OF CONCERN...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET SHOWING
PERTURBATION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT REACHES THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. MODELS PROJECT HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...RANGING BETWEEN 3-6 INCHES. BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON ITS INTENSITY AND TRAJECTORY.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC(USA)
$$






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