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000
FXCA20 KWBC 161813
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
212 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

DISCUSSION FROM APRIL 16/00UTC: WEAKENING ILL/DEFINED SURFACE
FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS-SOUTHERN FLORIDA. BOUNDARY
IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING BUT A WIDE REGION OF MODERATE CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAIGHT AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NORTES EVENT IS WEAKENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
EASTERLIES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DURING WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...WESTERN CUBA
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. THESE WILL PRODUCE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. ISOLATED LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE EJE
NEOVOLCANICO IN EASTERN MEXICO...WHICH ARE TO PRODUCE SIMILAR
ACCUMULATIONS. SLIGHTLY LARGER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN GUATEMALA
WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

DURING THURSDAY HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO TO EXTEND ACROSS THE PLAINS OF THE USA INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND
NEAR AND JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THEN INTO
NORTHWESTERN CUBA/NORTHERN YUCATAN. THIS TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH
ILL-DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND REGION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
LINGERING ACROSS AREAS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE GULF...AREAS OF ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE INTO THE REGION. THESE WILL INTERACT WITH LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLIES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS WILL ENHANCE ACTIVITY
ACROSS MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO FROM NORTHERN
OAXACA/SOUTHERN VERACRUZ INTO HIDALGO/SAN LUIS POTOSI. EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN ORGANIZE A NEW WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND ACTIVITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DURING FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-30MM ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM OAXACA/PUEBLA INTO
CHIAPAS/TABASCO/YUCATAN. DURING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACTIVITY WILL
CONCENTRATE FROM GUATEMALA-CHIAPAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN TO
PRODUCE SIMILAR AMOUNTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
AFFECT MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS BEFORE IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAXIMA OF 15MM.

ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA...DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL CLUSTER
ACROSS SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...EL SALVADOR.
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM THROUGH THE CYCLE. OTHER
REGION WITH ACTIVATING DIURNAL CONVECTION IS COSTA RICA/PANAMA.
EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM MOSTLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA TODAY. EXPECTING A DECREASING TREND AS WEAK
PERTURBATION IN THE TRADES MOVES AWAY AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME
EASTERLIES ONCE AGAIN. NEXT PERTURBATION IN THE TRADES WILL
APPROACH ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY TO PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE WEEKEND.

A TUTT LOW CENTERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 24N 58W...WHILE
A MID-UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. TUTT IS ENHANCING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLES...WHILE MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY WAS DOTTING THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES FROM MARTINIQUE/DOMINICA INTO PUERTO
RICO. TUTT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER IN THE REGION WHILE SLOWLY
PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST. MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO HOLD
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANGE OF PATTERN DEVELOPING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN THE MEAN TIME...CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY
LITTLE WITH SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS PRODUCING GENERALLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. SOME ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNINGS FROM THE FRENCH ANTILLES/LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS/EASTERN PUERTO RICO TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN WILL PRODUCE SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

CONVECTION IS ACTIVATING ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.
MOST REGION WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE CYCLE WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION CLUSTERING FROM THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
GUYANAS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VENEZUELA INTO THE ANDEAN REGION.
A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE TRADES IS ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND IS ENHANCING THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PROPAGATES TO THE WEST. MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY WILL CLUSTER ALONG CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VENEZUELA DURING
WEDNESDAY PRODUCING AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ON THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY EXPECTING MAXIMA INCREASING TO
20-40MM OVER MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN
VENEZUELA. ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY EXPECTING A FURTHER
INCREASE TO AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ACROSS
MOST OF ANDEAN COLOMBIA AND ANTIOQUIA/EJE CAFETERO. LIGHTER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GUIANAS WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION
AFFECTING MOSTLY THE COASTS.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL   24    36    48    60    72    84    96   TYPE
NONE SIGNIFICANT

GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
GARCIA...SMN (MEXICO)
FIGUEROA...MARN (EL SALVADOR)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 161051
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
651 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLES ARE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A
TUTT TO THE EAST...FAVORING A MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CAP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT TO THE
EAST...SHALLOW CONVECTION IS CLUSTERING  TO THE EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLES. AS THEY EMBED IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLY
TRADES...THE CLOUD CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
LEEWARD INTO THE VIRGIN ISLES....FAVORING WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
WILL THEN HELP SUSTAIN DIURNAL ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATER
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS.

MID/UPPER PATTERN IS TO REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK...WITH RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TUTT TO THE EAST HOLDING
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN ON SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN...AND THIS IS
TO CONTINUE INHIBITING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. AT LOW
LEVELS...CLUSTERS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLES
ARE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS IS TO FAVOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DIURNAL
CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOST ACTIVE
ACROSS VIEQUES-CULEBRAS-EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING AND
WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE TO RANGE BETWEEN 00-05MM/DAY WITH LOCALIZED
MAXIMA OF 10-15MM OVER THE MOUNTAINS/EL YUNQUE RAINFOREST.

PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND IS TO THEN EVOLVE AS SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM EXIT THE SOUTHERN USA AND
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS/NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. INFLOW OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SUSTAIN GRADUAL EROSION OF MID LEVEL
RIDGE PATTERN HOLDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT
CRUMBLES...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS IS GOING TO COINCIDE
WITH SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS...BRINGING RELIEF TO
DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN.

DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GARCIA...SMN (MEXICO)
FIGUEROA...MARN (EL SALVADOR)
$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 161051
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
651 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ISLES ARE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A
TUTT TO THE EAST...FAVORING A MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CAP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT TO THE
EAST...SHALLOW CONVECTION IS CLUSTERING  TO THE EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLES. AS THEY EMBED IN THE PREVAILING EASTERLY
TRADES...THE CLOUD CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
LEEWARD INTO THE VIRGIN ISLES....FAVORING WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS
WILL THEN HELP SUSTAIN DIURNAL ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATER
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS.

MID/UPPER PATTERN IS TO REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK...WITH RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TUTT TO THE EAST HOLDING
IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN ON SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN...AND THIS IS
TO CONTINUE INHIBITING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. AT LOW
LEVELS...CLUSTERS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLES
ARE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS IS TO FAVOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DIURNAL
CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOST ACTIVE
ACROSS VIEQUES-CULEBRAS-EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING AND
WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE TO RANGE BETWEEN 00-05MM/DAY WITH LOCALIZED
MAXIMA OF 10-15MM OVER THE MOUNTAINS/EL YUNQUE RAINFOREST.

PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND IS TO THEN EVOLVE AS SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM EXIT THE SOUTHERN USA AND
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS/NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. INFLOW OF
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL HELP SUSTAIN GRADUAL EROSION OF MID LEVEL
RIDGE PATTERN HOLDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT
CRUMBLES...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS IS GOING TO COINCIDE
WITH SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS...BRINGING RELIEF TO
DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN.

DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GARCIA...SMN (MEXICO)
FIGUEROA...MARN (EL SALVADOR)
$$






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