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000
FXUS01 KWBC 010845
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
445 AM EDT SAT NOV 01 2014

VALID 12Z SAT NOV 01 2014 - 12Z MON NOV 03 2014

...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED FOR MAINE AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...

...MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE NATION...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE CONUS
AS WE ENTER THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.  A POWERFUL CLOSED LOW DIVING
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL BRING AN EARLY TASTE OF
WINTER TO THE SOUTHERN APPLACHIANS AS STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING
RESULTS IN ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY.
AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED DUE TO THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER SATURDAY AND
INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST, WHICH WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  AS A RESULT, MUCH
OF THE EAST COAST WILL EXPERIENCE VERY COOL, BREEZY AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
AFTER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST, WITH
ONE AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION PUSHING IN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN, BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM EASTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE
TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINE.
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT AS THE COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTHWARD INTO
NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY, A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION...ALL
SNOW...WILL SWEEP ACROSS MAINE.  SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER A FOOT
ARE POSSIBLE OVER EAST-CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE.  MEANWHILE,
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN BEHIND THIS LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
FREEZING AND SUB-FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO LARGE
AREAS OF MISSOURI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.

IN THE WEST, A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE IS BRINGING
WELCOME PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF VALLEY RAINS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOWS TO DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS OF CALIFORNIA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH STEADILY EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY SHEARING INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHILE THE REMAINDER HANGS BACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.  THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS AND PACIFIC MOISTURE ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA THIS WEEKEND.  THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH WILL TAP
INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE, WHICH SHOULD HELP FUEL CONVECTION
ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY.  LATE IN THE PERIOD,
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES WILL BRING AND RENEWED CHANCE
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL STATES WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY DRY
AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS, THOUGH WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN
ADVANCE OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

KLEIN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 010637
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
236 AM EDT SAT NOV 01 2014

VALID 12Z TUE NOV 04 2014 - 12Z SAT NOV 08 2014

...OVERVIEW...

FROM THE MULTI-DAY MEAN PERSPECTIVE MOST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A
RIDGE NEAR OR JUST INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.  HOWEVER AS WAS THE
CASE YDAY THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT INTERMEDIATE-SCALE ISSUES
THAT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FCST SPECIFICS.  SPECIFICALLY THESE ARE
TIMING OF ERN PAC TROUGH ENERGY EXPECTED TO REACH THE WEST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK AND RESULTING TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THE ERN
TROUGH... ALONG WITH SRN STREAM FLOW THAT MAY CLOSE OFF AN UPR LOW
OVER NWRN MEXICO OR ELSE BE MORE PROGRESSIVE/SHEARED.


...GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...

FROM EARLY IN THE PERIOD THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
MODEL/ENSEMBLE SPREAD REGARDING HOW INITIAL SRN ROCKIES/NWRN
MEXICO ENERGY EVOLVES OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD.  VERSUS PRIOR
RUNS... THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF MEAN REFLECT MOST
OPERATIONAL ECMWF/UKMET RUNS THAT HAVE BEEN DEPOSITING A CLOSED
LOW OVER NWRN MEXICO.  GFS AND SOME GEFS MEAN RUNS HAVE TENDED TO
BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE... THOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT THE NEW 00Z RUN
HAS ADJUSTED SLOWER AND 18Z/00Z PARALLEL GFS RUNS LEAN MORE TOWARD
LEAVING BEHIND AT LEAST SOME ENERGY OVER NWRN MEXICO.  THUS WOULD
PREFER TO INCORPORATE SOMEWHAT MORE OF THE SLOWER/CLOSED SCENARIO
FOR THIS ENERGY.

NRN STREAM TIMING ISSUES ORIGINATE OVER THE PACIFIC ALREADY NEAR
THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH RESULTING ERN CONUS DIFFS BECOMING
APPARENT BY DAYS 4-5 WED-THU.  IN GENERAL THE 12Z ECMWF AND TO A
SLIGHTLY LESSER EXTENT ECMWF MEAN ARE ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE
FULL GUIDANCE SPREAD WITH BOTH THE ERN PAC SHRTWV HEADING INTO THE
MEAN RIDGE AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFYING ERN TROUGH THAT SHOULD
SUPPORT WHAT COULD BE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SFC SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NERN STATES BY LATE IN THE WEEK.  REMAINING SOLNS HAVE BEEN QUITE
DIVERSE WITH ERN PAC SHRTWV TIMING IN PARTICULAR.  GIVEN
ESTABLISHED WPC CONTINUITY LATEST PREFS WERE TO EMPHASIZE NEARLY
EVEN WEIGHTING OF THE 12Z ECMWF MEAN AND THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER 18Z
PARALLEL GFS... WITH THE LATTER ALSO INCLUDED TO DEEPEN THE NERN
SYSTEM SOMEWHAT AS RECOMMENDED BY SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS.
NOTE THAT THE NEW 00Z GFS/GEFS/UKMET/CMC RUNS DISPLAY MORE
PRONOUNCED CLUSTERING TOWARD SLOWER TIMING THAN THE 12Z
ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN.  THE 00Z ECMWF THROUGH WED HAS ADJUSTED SLOWER
BUT IS STILL A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS CLUSTER.

BASED ON GUIDANCE THROUGH THE 18Z CYCLE... COMBINED PREFS FOR NRN
AND SRN STREAM FEATURES LED TO THE USE OF A 40/40/20 BLEND OF THE
18Z PARALLEL GFS/12Z ECMWF MEAN/12Z NAEFS MEAN THROUGH DAY 5
THU... TRENDING TOWARD A BLEND OF 12Z ECMWF MEAN/18Z GEFS MEAN/12Z
NAEFS MEAN BY DAY 7 SAT GIVEN REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN ANY
OPERATIONAL MODEL DETAILS.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

LOCATIONS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VLY INTO THE LOWER OH VLY HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF HVY RNFL... WITH A WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTERACTING WITH LOW LVL GULF INFLOW AND ADDED INPUT OF
MSTR FROM ERN PAC T.S. VANCE.  ONGOING QUESTION MARKS WITH UPR LVL
FLOW INITIALLY OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/NWRN MEXICO LEAD TO LOWER THAN
DESIRED CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE/DURATION OF HEAVIEST ACTIVITY.  IN
ADDITION BY LATE IN THE PERIOD NRN STREAM INTERACTION COULD DRAW
SOME OF THIS MSTR NWD/NEWD BUT SOLNS ARE QUITE VARIED IN THIS
REGARD.  MEANWHILE THE PAC NW/EXTREME NRN ROCKIES SHOULD SEE ONE
OR MORE EPISODES OF PCPN ENHANCED OVER FAVORED TERRAIN... AND THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ORGANIZED PCPN INCLUDING SOME SNOW ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY ASSUMING SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEVELOPMENT.  THE OVERALL
PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON MOST DAYS OVER THE
WEST AND INTO PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS.  OVER THE EAST NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS SHOULD TREND BELOW NORMAL BY
FRI-SAT BUT WITH MOST ANOMALIES REMAINING WITHIN 10F OF NORMAL.

RAUSCH

$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 312001
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
401 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VALID 00Z SAT NOV 01 2014 - 00Z MON NOV 03 2014

...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF MAINE...

...HEAVY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA...

...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

A STRONG STORM WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
SATURDAY THEN MOVE NORTHWARD TO OFF OF CAPE COD BY SUNDAY MORNING.
 UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY/SOUTHEAST WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
SATURDAY EVENING, ENDING BY SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM WRAPS UP, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY MORNING THAT WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY
TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY
MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

ANOTHER STORM OVER THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY.  THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER PARTS OF CALIFORNIA THAT WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD TO THE ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY.
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  ALSO ON SUNDAY MORNING, RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.


ZIEGENFELDER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS06 KWBC 311901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI OCTOBER 31 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 06 - 10 2014

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
OCEAN, AND A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE GFS AND
ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLE MEANS, ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE
LOW TO MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. MORE
WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN TO THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN BASED ON ITS SKILL DURING THE
PAST 60 DAYS AS ASSESSED BY 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CORRELATIONS.

RIDGING OVER WEST COAST OF THE CONUS LEADS TO ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, AS WELL AS FLORIDA AND MAINE, CONSISTENT WITH GEFS
REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES.

TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN WITH AN ENHANCED PACIFIC JET FAVORS
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CONUS. NEAR- TO
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
FLORIDA, AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH FORECAST TO EXIT THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTRAINED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS AND GEFS
REFORECAST GUIDANCE. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN
ALASKA, WHILE BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER NORTHERN ALASKA.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF
TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8, 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF
TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 08 - 14 2014

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS OF THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS PREDICT A TROUGH
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN AND A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. MORE WEIGHTING
WAS GIVEN TO THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN BASED ON ITS SKILL DURING THE PAST 60
DAYS AS ASSESSED BY 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CORRELATIONS.

THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE PATTERNS ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
RIDGING OVER WEST COAST OF THE CONUS LEADS TO ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVOR FOR
MOST OF ALASKA, FLORIDA AND MAINE, CONSISTENT WITH GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE AND
BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES.

THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ARE ALSO SIMILAR TO THOSE FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN WITH AN ENHANCED PACIFIC JET
FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CONUS. INCREASED
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN TEXAS ARE
RELATED TO EXPECTED RAINFALL ON DAY 8 AND INFLUENCE FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
LATER IN WEEK-2. NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED
FOR THE SOUTHWEST, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AND THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF
TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF
TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: NEAR AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.


FORECASTER: LUKE HE

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20011027 - 19711108 - 19801107 - 20081030 - 19731015


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20081030 - 19731018 - 20011027 - 19891019 - 19711107


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 06 - 10 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     N    N
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    N    N
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   N    N     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    N    N     MISSISSIPPI N    N     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     N    N     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    N
TENNESSEE   N    N     ALABAMA     N    N     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     N    N
FL PNHDL    N    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 08 - 14 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      N    B     OKLAHOMA    N    N
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     N    N
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    N    N
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   N    N     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    N    N     MISSISSIPPI N    N     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    N
TENNESSEE   N    N     ALABAMA     N    N     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    N
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     N    N
FL PNHDL    N    N     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 311714
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
113 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

DISCUSSION FROM OCTOBER 31/00UTC: REGULAR TROPICAL DESK PRODUCTS
WILL BECOME AVAILABLE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY NOVEMBER THIRD.

SPECIAL INTEREST LIES ON NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...NORTHERN HONDURAS AND
EASTERN NICARAGUA/EASTERN COSTA RICA DURING THE LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN USA IS
UNDULATING SEVERAL SURFACE FRONTS AND WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SHEAR LINE. EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO SHIFT TO 15-25KT
NORTHEASTERLIES...TO REACH 30KT IN SOME LOCATIONS. THESE WINDS
WILL INTERACT WITH OROGRAPHY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
EXPECTING MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 100MM/DAY ACROSS
NORTHERN HONDURAS EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING
INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS EXTENDING INTO TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. MORE DETAILS ON MONDAY.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 311559
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VALID 12Z MON NOV 03 2014 - 12Z FRI NOV 07 2014

...VERY HEAVY PCPN PATTERN ON TAP FOR THE S-CENTRAL AND NWRN US
NEXT WEEK...

...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENTS...

WPC SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURE AND 500 MB PROGS ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
HPCGUIDE HIGH RESOLUTION SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN
PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE 06 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
THE REASONABLY COMPATABLE 00 UTC ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST APPROACH WAS USED IN PART DUE TO LESS THAN
STELLAR DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIANCE. GUIDANCE THOUGH
DOES SEEM TO BE CONVERGING UPON A MORE COMMON MID-LARGER SCALE
SOLUTION...BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE... ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVY
PCPN THREATS FOR THE S-CENTRAL AND NWRN US NEXT WEEK.

THE WPC SOLUTION LEANS ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THE FULL
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS FOR BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS...FOLLOWING
FROM LEAD-IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP ANALYSIS...OVERALL GUIDANCE
TRENDS/BIASES...AND RECENT FLOW HISTORY.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

AMPLIFIED YET STEADILY PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LATITUDE FLOW
SUPPORTS SEVERAL FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES FROM THE CENTRAL TO ERN US
NEXT WEEK WITH MODEST PCPN. ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE MODESTLY MORE
AMPLIFIED THAN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF OVER TIME IN THIS
PATTERN. HOWEVER...A BIGGER THREAT TRAILS BACK AND LINGERS OVER
THE S-CENTRAL US WHERE SLOWER MOVING BOUNDARIES AND POTENTIAL SRN
STREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT WORKING SLOWLY FROM THE SWRN
US/MEXICO MAY COMBINE WITH DEEPER GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INFLOW
THAT MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED TO SOME FACTOR BY MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FED UP FROM ERN PAC TS VANCE. FYI...THE EXPERIMENTAL
PARELLEL 06 UTC GFS HAS TRENDED MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00 UTC ECMWF
IN THE SRN STREAM NEXT WEEK.

MEANWHILE...ENERGETIC MID-UPPER LATITUDE FLOW ALSO FAVORS A
PROLONGED HEAVY PCPN PATTERN FOR THE NWRN US WHERE A MOIST FETCH
WITH EACH SYSTEM APPROACH/PASSAGE IS SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED BY
TOPOGRAPHY.

SCHICHTEL

$$







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