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000
FXUS01 KWBC 200838
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
438 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VALID 12Z SUN APR 20 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 22 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL FINALLY WIND
DOWN...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH LATE MONDAY...


THE CONFIGURATION OF THE UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE TO BE SPLIT IN
NATURE WHICH WILL FEATURE AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM.
SUCH A SETUP IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
A MUCH HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN EVOLVES THEREAFTER. THE CURRENT
STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONSISTS OF A STRONG CLOSED LOW ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A MULTI-DAY HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE CONTENT NOW OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS, THE EVENT HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO WIND DOWN WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON EASTER
SUNDAY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM HAS HELPED
FOSTER THE GROWTH OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME OF THE MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD SPAWN ALONG A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED
TROF EXTENDING THROUGH WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS. GIVEN SUFFICIENT
DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
BE RATHER UNSTABLE WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK SUGGESTS
THIS IS THE CASE WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY IN THE
VICINITY OF LUBBOCK AND MIDLAND, TEXAS WITH THE THREAT MOVING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY THE FOLLOWING DAY.

THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BE A KEY
CONTRIBUTOR TO THE WEATHER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN
UPPER TROF CURRENTLY SKIRTING THE UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
CONTINUE SLIDING EASTWARD WITH MINIMAL CHANGE IN INTENSITY
EXPECTED. WHILE THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOCKED TO
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH CANADA, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE RAIN PRODUCER. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD
REACHING THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY LATE MONDAY TO EARLY
TUESDAY.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE TIME
MONDAY EVENING ARRIVES WITH A DEEP UPPER TROF JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
WEST COAST. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH FRONTAL AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WILL HELP SPREAD WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
UP INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THE WPC
WINTER WEATHER DESK IS ADVERTISING AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE OREGON CASCADES.

WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, IT SHOULD BE RATHER MILD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE U.S. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WILL RAISE THE MERCURY WELL INTO THE
70S ON SUNDAY. A DROP IN THE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BUT READINGS SHOULD
STILL HOLD STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.


RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 200838
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
438 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VALID 12Z SUN APR 20 2014 - 12Z TUE APR 22 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL FINALLY WIND
DOWN...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH LATE MONDAY...


THE CONFIGURATION OF THE UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE TO BE SPLIT IN
NATURE WHICH WILL FEATURE AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM.
SUCH A SETUP IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
A MUCH HIGHER AMPLITUDE PATTERN EVOLVES THEREAFTER. THE CURRENT
STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONSISTS OF A STRONG CLOSED LOW ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A MULTI-DAY HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE CONTENT NOW OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS, THE EVENT HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO WIND DOWN WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ON EASTER
SUNDAY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM HAS HELPED
FOSTER THE GROWTH OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME OF THE MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD SPAWN ALONG A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED
TROF EXTENDING THROUGH WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS. GIVEN SUFFICIENT
DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
BE RATHER UNSTABLE WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK SUGGESTS
THIS IS THE CASE WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY IN THE
VICINITY OF LUBBOCK AND MIDLAND, TEXAS WITH THE THREAT MOVING INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY THE FOLLOWING DAY.

THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET WILL ALSO BE A KEY
CONTRIBUTOR TO THE WEATHER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN
UPPER TROF CURRENTLY SKIRTING THE UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
CONTINUE SLIDING EASTWARD WITH MINIMAL CHANGE IN INTENSITY
EXPECTED. WHILE THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOCKED TO
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH CANADA, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE RAIN PRODUCER. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD
REACHING THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY LATE MONDAY TO EARLY
TUESDAY.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE TIME
MONDAY EVENING ARRIVES WITH A DEEP UPPER TROF JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
WEST COAST. ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH FRONTAL AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WILL HELP SPREAD WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
UP INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THE WPC
WINTER WEATHER DESK IS ADVERTISING AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE OREGON CASCADES.

WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, IT SHOULD BE RATHER MILD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE U.S. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WILL RAISE THE MERCURY WELL INTO THE
70S ON SUNDAY. A DROP IN THE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BUT READINGS SHOULD
STILL HOLD STEADY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.


RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 200638
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VALID 12Z WED APR 23 2014 - 12Z SUN APR 27 2014

...GUIDANCE PREFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENTS...

THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A
BLEND OF REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED GUIDANCE FROM THE 18 UTC
GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12 UTC ECMWF AND ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS DAYS 3-5/WED-FRI IN A PERIOD WITH OVERALL BELOW NORMAL
FORECAST SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY. THIS WPC BLENDED SOLUTION IS NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS AND FURTHER
INCORPORATES SOME WPC/NDFD CONTINUITY ALONG WITH SITUATIONAL
MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION AND MODEL BIAS.  I
SEE MINIMAL COMPELLING REASON TO VEER MUCH FROM CONCENSUS DURING
THIS PERIOD.

PREFER A 12 UTC GFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN MIXED WITH WPC/NDFD
CONTINUITY BASED FORECAST APPROACH BY DAYS 6/7/NEXT WEEKEND IN A
PERIOD WITH GROWING FORECAST SPREAD AND UNCERTIANTY.  THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOLUTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BLENDED
SOLUTION IS LESS PROGRESSIVE/MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE 12 UTC
ECMWF...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF RECENT GFS RUNS WHOSE MORE CLOSED
SPRING SYSTEM NATURES ARE POSSIBLE.  IT IS INTERESTING THOUGH AS
THE GFS USUALLY IS ON THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF SOLUTIONS.

...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

POTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM ENERGIES WORK
THROUGH THEN OFF THE ERN/NERN US/CANADIAN MARITIMES WED/THU...WITH
MODEST PCPN IN ADVANCE AND DECENT POST-FRONTAL COOLING HIGH
PRESSURE.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS WORKS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND WINTERY NRN ROCKY
STATES MIDWEEK BEFORE STEADILY CROSSING THE CENTRAL THEN
EAST-CENTRAL US THU-SUN. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WELL
ORGANIZED LOW/FRONT TO DEVELOP AND INCREASINGLY FOCUS
MOISTURE/PCPN ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION.
HEAVIEST PCPN POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE MAIN LOW TRACK
ACROSS NWRN US/NRN ROCKIES TERRAIN AND OUT ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL
US...BUT DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO OFFER A
CONVECTIVE SPARK FARTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WELL WARMED
S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL US AS MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

UPSTREAM...YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
SYSTEM WITH ENHANCED PCPN REACHES THE US WEST COAST FRI IN WPC
PROGS.  THIS SYSTEM IS KICKED INLAND ACROSS AN UNSETTLED/COOLING
WRN US BY ADDITIONAL ERN PACIFIC ENERGIES AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE PLAINS NEXT SUN IN A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW CONVECTIVE PATTERN.

SCHICHTEL

$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 200638
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

VALID 12Z WED APR 23 2014 - 12Z SUN APR 27 2014

...GUIDANCE PREFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENTS...

THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A
BLEND OF REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED GUIDANCE FROM THE 18 UTC
GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 12 UTC ECMWF AND ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS DAYS 3-5/WED-FRI IN A PERIOD WITH OVERALL BELOW NORMAL
FORECAST SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY. THIS WPC BLENDED SOLUTION IS NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS AND FURTHER
INCORPORATES SOME WPC/NDFD CONTINUITY ALONG WITH SITUATIONAL
MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION AND MODEL BIAS.  I
SEE MINIMAL COMPELLING REASON TO VEER MUCH FROM CONCENSUS DURING
THIS PERIOD.

PREFER A 12 UTC GFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN MIXED WITH WPC/NDFD
CONTINUITY BASED FORECAST APPROACH BY DAYS 6/7/NEXT WEEKEND IN A
PERIOD WITH GROWING FORECAST SPREAD AND UNCERTIANTY.  THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOLUTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BLENDED
SOLUTION IS LESS PROGRESSIVE/MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE 12 UTC
ECMWF...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF RECENT GFS RUNS WHOSE MORE CLOSED
SPRING SYSTEM NATURES ARE POSSIBLE.  IT IS INTERESTING THOUGH AS
THE GFS USUALLY IS ON THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF SOLUTIONS.

...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

POTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE SYSTEM ENERGIES WORK
THROUGH THEN OFF THE ERN/NERN US/CANADIAN MARITIMES WED/THU...WITH
MODEST PCPN IN ADVANCE AND DECENT POST-FRONTAL COOLING HIGH
PRESSURE.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/POTENT HEIGHT
FALLS WORKS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND WINTERY NRN ROCKY
STATES MIDWEEK BEFORE STEADILY CROSSING THE CENTRAL THEN
EAST-CENTRAL US THU-SUN. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WELL
ORGANIZED LOW/FRONT TO DEVELOP AND INCREASINGLY FOCUS
MOISTURE/PCPN ALONG WITH POST-FRONTAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION.
HEAVIEST PCPN POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE MAIN LOW TRACK
ACROSS NWRN US/NRN ROCKIES TERRAIN AND OUT ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL
US...BUT DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO OFFER A
CONVECTIVE SPARK FARTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WELL WARMED
S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL US AS MOISTURE RETURNS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

UPSTREAM...YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE
SYSTEM WITH ENHANCED PCPN REACHES THE US WEST COAST FRI IN WPC
PROGS.  THIS SYSTEM IS KICKED INLAND ACROSS AN UNSETTLED/COOLING
WRN US BY ADDITIONAL ERN PACIFIC ENERGIES AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE PLAINS NEXT SUN IN A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW CONVECTIVE PATTERN.

SCHICHTEL

$$






000
FXUS06 KWBC 192015
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THERE IS NO FORECASTER MESSAGE WRITTEN ON WEEKENDS

NOTES:

AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19940429 - 19690416 - 19930428 - 20070423 - 19960422

ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19940430 - 19690415 - 19930428 - 20070424 - 19960423

6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 25 - 29, 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     N    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    A
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    N
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    B    B     AK SO COAST B    B     AK PNHDL    N    N


8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 27 - MAY 03, 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  N    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    N    N
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    N
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     N    B
FL PNHDL    N    B     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST N    N     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




000
FXUS06 KWBC 192015
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THERE IS NO FORECASTER MESSAGE WRITTEN ON WEEKENDS

NOTES:

AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19940429 - 19690416 - 19930428 - 20070423 - 19960422

ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19940430 - 19690415 - 19930428 - 20070424 - 19960423

6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 25 - 29, 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     N    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    A
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    N
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    B    B     AK SO COAST B    B     AK PNHDL    N    N


8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 27 - MAY 03, 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  N    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    N    N
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    N
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     N    B
FL PNHDL    N    B     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST N    N     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$





000
FXUS01 KWBC 192006
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
405 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 00Z SUN APR 20 2014 - 00Z TUE APR 22 2014

...HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...

...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

A FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BECOME STAGNATE ONLY MOVING TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY, WHILE A SECOND FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY.  RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY MONDAY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALSO ALONG THE
FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY
EVENING.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD TO PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.


THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE MAINLY DRY OVER THE
REGION WITH A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY EVENING. THE
BOUNDARY WILL INTERSECT MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY EVENING MOVING INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY.  MEANWHILE, ONSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN
PRODUCING RAIN AND HIGHEST ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION, ANOTHER
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST.

ELSEWHERE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ENDING BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  FURTHERMORE, LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OUT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PRODUCING RAIN THAT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
AT TIMES OVER PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA CHANGING TO RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.


ZIEGENFELDER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 192006
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
405 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 00Z SUN APR 20 2014 - 00Z TUE APR 22 2014

...HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...

...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

A FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BECOME STAGNATE ONLY MOVING TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY, WHILE A SECOND FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY.  RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY MONDAY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALSO ALONG THE
FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SATURDAY
EVENING.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND MOVE EASTWARD TO PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.


THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE MAINLY DRY OVER THE
REGION WITH A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY EVENING. THE
BOUNDARY WILL INTERSECT MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY EVENING MOVING INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY.  MEANWHILE, ONSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN
PRODUCING RAIN AND HIGHEST ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION, ANOTHER
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY MONDAY MORNING
ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST.

ELSEWHERE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ENDING BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  FURTHERMORE, LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OUT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PRODUCING RAIN THAT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
AT TIMES OVER PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA CHANGING TO RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.


ZIEGENFELDER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 191558
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1157 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 12Z TUE APR 22 2014 - 12Z SAT APR 26 2014

...OVERVIEW...
A RELATIVELY-STABLE WAVE PATTERN AT MID-LATITUDES WILL PRODUCE A
SERIES OF MIGRATORY SYSTEMS FOR THE LOWER 48.

...MODEL PREFERENCES/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENTS/SENSIBLE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS......
THE 19/00Z MODEL CYCLE...EXCLUDING THE DETERMINISTIC
CANADIAN...SEEMED TO REASONABLY DEPICT THE SERIES OF MIGRATORY
SYSTEMS TRAVERSING THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WEST COAST ...MIDWEST
...AND NORTHEAST THROUGH DAY 6. FOR THE PAST 2 to 3 DAYS...THE
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DONE A NICE JOB OF TIMING THE PATTERN AND ITS
REPLACEMENT--EAST OF THE ROCKIES. IE...FROM A
MULTI-WAVE...SPLIT-FLOW TYPE PATTERN EXITING THE EASTERN CONUS
(DAY 3-4)...TO ONE THAT GIVES THE APPEARANCE OF A SERIES OF
HIGHER-AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ACCOMPANIED BY BROAD SHORTWAVE RIDGES.

THE 19/00Z ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS A RATHER TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED SET OF
SOLUTIONS. THE 19/00Z GEFS/ECENS MEANS AND THEIR DETERMINISTIC
RUNS COULD EASILY BE BLENDED INTO DAY 6 (26/00Z) ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...INVOF HAIDA GWAII (QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLAND) AND SOUTH OF
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.

A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH AXIS SOLUTION INVOF 50N LAT 130W LONG...IS
THE ACCEPTED SOURCE REGION AND ENTRY POINT FOR A STORM TRACK THAT
WILL MAINTAIN A SPRING RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PATTERN IN THE
NORTHWEST AFTER DAY 5. ASIDE FROM THE EARLY DAY 3 SYSTEM TRACKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THE SOUTHERN EXTENSIONS OF THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONTS...WILL BE ESSENTIALLY DRY--(EXCEPT AT HIGH
ELEVATION)--AND BREEZY/WINDY EVENTS FOR THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM THE
BAY AREA TO THE GREAT BASIN AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

DOWNSTREAM...ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE (ALONG THIS
I-80 CORRIDOR)...THE HIGHER-AMPLITUDE FLOW ALLOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGES
TO BROADEN WARM ADVECTION AND EXPAND BREEZY CONDITIONS NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. AND ALTHOUGH
THIS PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR AN OPEN-GULF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FEED
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BASIN...A DRYLINE-TYPE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
DOES BODE WELL FOR WEST TEXAS...EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. HIT-N-MISS
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...INCLUDING
NOCTURNAL SHOWERS...ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE.

DAYS 3-4...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE...THE CHALLENGE APPEARS TO BE HOW
EXPANSIVE THE DRY-ADIABATIC WARMING WILL BE...FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE DRY AIR INTRUSION AND RAPIDLY-SOARING
TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY BEGIN TO TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...OZARKS AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO
DAY 5...AS A SLOWLY-AMPLIFYING SURFACE WAVE TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. THE DETERMINISTIC 19/00Z
GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY DEPICT A SUB 994MB SURFACE LOW INVOF
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 24/12Z. THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BEYOND DAY 5 WITH THE CYCLONE TRACK AND DEPTH
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BUT A BLEND OF THE ECENS/GEFS MEANS
APPEARED A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND FOR NOW.

VOJTESAK


$$






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