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000
FXSA20 KWBC 311332
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
932 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM 29 JULY 00UTC): AT 200 HPA...A CLOSED HIGH
OVER WESTERN ECUADOR ANCHORS A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
PACIFIC...WITH AXIS SOUTH ALONG 80W TO 20S. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS RONDONIA-AMAZONAS IN
BRASIL. THIS TROUGH...ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...CONTINUES TO ENHANCE
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS AMAZONAS-PARA IN BRASIL. TRADE WIND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHEAST BRASIL FAVORS LIGHT SHALLOW
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF 38W.

AT 250 HPA...THE SOUTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 47S
85W...ALONG 53S 79W...51S 70W...EXITING AT 45S 67W. IT REFORMS AT
45S 55W...ALONG 49S 41W...48S 28W...EXITING AT 44S 24W. THE
NORTHERN POLAR LIES ALONG 35S 120W...A 177KT MAXIMUM AT 35S
110W...34S 98W...A 144KT MAXIMUM AT 35S 90W...41S 82W...44S
75W...39S 66W...38S 58W...42S 49W...EXITING AT 44S 38W. THE
SUBTROPICAL JET HAS A FINGER BETWEEN 19S 76W AND 17S 72W. IT
REFORMS AT 13S 46W...ALONG 17S 39W...19S 30W...20S 21W...EXITING
AT 19S 15W.

AT 500 HPA...BROAD TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC...ENVELOPING AREA BETWEEN 105W-70W AND TO
THE SOUTH OF 30S. THE TROUGH CENTERS ON A CLOSED LOW NEAR 56S
100W. AS IT PRESSES AGAINST A SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST THIS IS
FOCUSING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
CHILE. SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS ON THE NORTHERN STREAM REVOLVE
AROUND THIS TROUGH...WITH ONE ALONG 92W/93W TO 28S...WHILE ANOTHER
IS PULLING ACROSS LA PAMPA TO THE BUENOS PROVINCE IN ARGENTINA.
THE LATTER SUSTAINS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
BRASIL-URUGUAY-MESOPOTAMIA VALLEY IN ARGENTINA. A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS BETWEEN 55W-30W AND TO THE NORTH OF 50S.
A TROUGH TO THE EAST EXTENDS BETWEEN 30W-10W AND TO THE SOUTH OF
20S.

AT LOW LEVELS...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PACIFIC THAT CENTERS ON AN OCCLUDED 974 HPA LOW AT 56S
100W. A POLAR FRONT TO THE NORTH REVOLVES AROUND THIS AXIS AS IT
EXTENDS FROM AN OCCLUDED 966 HPA LOW AT 45S 93W...A 970 HPA LOW AT
48S 86W...42S 82W...38S 84W...A 1006 HPA LOW AT 36S 87W...31S
98W...AND 31S 111W. FARTHER EAST...AN OCCLUDED 990 HPA LOW AT 57S
50W EXTENDS A FRONT ALONG A 994 HPA LOW AT 59S 44W...53S 38W...49S
40W...45S 50W...A 1010 HPA LOW AT 43S 59W...BUENOS AIRES ARGENTINA
TO MENDOZA. SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
OVER URUGUAY-ENTRE RIOS ARGENTINA. A RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC
CENTERS ON A 1037 HPA HIGH AT 39S 36W. AN OLD FRONT TO THE EAST
EXTENDS ALONG A 1014 HPA LOW AT 29S 17W...23S 22W...21S 27W...TO
ESPIRITO SANTO...WHERE IT SUSTAINS SCATTERED CONVECTION.

FERNANDES...INMET (BRASIL)
JALFIN...SMN (ARGENTINA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

$$






000
FXSA20 KWBC 311332
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
932 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM 29 JULY 00UTC): AT 200 HPA...A CLOSED HIGH
OVER WESTERN ECUADOR ANCHORS A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
PACIFIC...WITH AXIS SOUTH ALONG 80W TO 20S. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS RONDONIA-AMAZONAS IN
BRASIL. THIS TROUGH...ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...CONTINUES TO ENHANCE
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS AMAZONAS-PARA IN BRASIL. TRADE WIND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHEAST BRASIL FAVORS LIGHT SHALLOW
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF 38W.

AT 250 HPA...THE SOUTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 47S
85W...ALONG 53S 79W...51S 70W...EXITING AT 45S 67W. IT REFORMS AT
45S 55W...ALONG 49S 41W...48S 28W...EXITING AT 44S 24W. THE
NORTHERN POLAR LIES ALONG 35S 120W...A 177KT MAXIMUM AT 35S
110W...34S 98W...A 144KT MAXIMUM AT 35S 90W...41S 82W...44S
75W...39S 66W...38S 58W...42S 49W...EXITING AT 44S 38W. THE
SUBTROPICAL JET HAS A FINGER BETWEEN 19S 76W AND 17S 72W. IT
REFORMS AT 13S 46W...ALONG 17S 39W...19S 30W...20S 21W...EXITING
AT 19S 15W.

AT 500 HPA...BROAD TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC...ENVELOPING AREA BETWEEN 105W-70W AND TO
THE SOUTH OF 30S. THE TROUGH CENTERS ON A CLOSED LOW NEAR 56S
100W. AS IT PRESSES AGAINST A SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST THIS IS
FOCUSING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
CHILE. SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS ON THE NORTHERN STREAM REVOLVE
AROUND THIS TROUGH...WITH ONE ALONG 92W/93W TO 28S...WHILE ANOTHER
IS PULLING ACROSS LA PAMPA TO THE BUENOS PROVINCE IN ARGENTINA.
THE LATTER SUSTAINS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
BRASIL-URUGUAY-MESOPOTAMIA VALLEY IN ARGENTINA. A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS BETWEEN 55W-30W AND TO THE NORTH OF 50S.
A TROUGH TO THE EAST EXTENDS BETWEEN 30W-10W AND TO THE SOUTH OF
20S.

AT LOW LEVELS...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PACIFIC THAT CENTERS ON AN OCCLUDED 974 HPA LOW AT 56S
100W. A POLAR FRONT TO THE NORTH REVOLVES AROUND THIS AXIS AS IT
EXTENDS FROM AN OCCLUDED 966 HPA LOW AT 45S 93W...A 970 HPA LOW AT
48S 86W...42S 82W...38S 84W...A 1006 HPA LOW AT 36S 87W...31S
98W...AND 31S 111W. FARTHER EAST...AN OCCLUDED 990 HPA LOW AT 57S
50W EXTENDS A FRONT ALONG A 994 HPA LOW AT 59S 44W...53S 38W...49S
40W...45S 50W...A 1010 HPA LOW AT 43S 59W...BUENOS AIRES ARGENTINA
TO MENDOZA. SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
OVER URUGUAY-ENTRE RIOS ARGENTINA. A RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC
CENTERS ON A 1037 HPA HIGH AT 39S 36W. AN OLD FRONT TO THE EAST
EXTENDS ALONG A 1014 HPA LOW AT 29S 17W...23S 22W...21S 27W...TO
ESPIRITO SANTO...WHERE IT SUSTAINS SCATTERED CONVECTION.

FERNANDES...INMET (BRASIL)
JALFIN...SMN (ARGENTINA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 311112
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
712 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. TUTT LOW
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND ASSOCIATED INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH IN THE
EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO DOMINATE FORECAST DURING THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. THE TROUGH ALOFT IS ENHANCING DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY...WHILE THE LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION SUSTAINS MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. PWAT IN THIS AREA
NOW RANGES BETWEEN 40-45MM...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS
THE PERTURBATION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TODAY. GRADUAL EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN PWAT DECREASES TO 30-35MM.
MEANWHILE...EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES
AND PUERTO RICO. CONSIDERING EVOLVING PATTERN WE PREFER THE WETTER
GFS SOLUTION OVER THE DRYER EUROPEAN MODELS. IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WEST OF MANATI LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE HRWRF MODEL.

SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE ITCZ AND
NEAR 50W EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NHC UPPED THEIR PROBABILITY OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION TO 60 PERCENT AS CONVECTION/WINDS
STRENGTHENED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE GLOBAL
MODELS...ALTHOUGH THEY DIVERGE ON THE TIMING...THEY NOW AGREE ON
THE POSSIBLE TRAJECTORY OF THIS FEATURE. DURING THE
PERIOD...BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FAVOR A DIVERGENT PATTERN
ALOFT...WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AND CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION. PER THE MODEL GUIDANCE...HUMACAO/BARCELONETA AND SAINT
CROIX/VIEQUES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE BRUNT OF THIS
SYSTEM. IN THIS AREA THE FORECASTED MAXIMA RANGES BETWEEN 50-75MM.
THIS SEEM REASONABLE ACROSS THE VI AND VIEQUES. BUT OVER SOUTHEAST
PR...STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING IN THE AREA IS  LIKELY TO FAVOR
MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS.

FIGUEROA...MARN (EL SALVADOR)
VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 311112
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
712 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. TUTT LOW
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND ASSOCIATED INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH IN THE
EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO DOMINATE FORECAST DURING THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD. THE TROUGH ALOFT IS ENHANCING DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY...WHILE THE LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION SUSTAINS MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. PWAT IN THIS AREA
NOW RANGES BETWEEN 40-45MM...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS
THE PERTURBATION MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TODAY. GRADUAL EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN PWAT DECREASES TO 30-35MM.
MEANWHILE...EXPECTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES
AND PUERTO RICO. CONSIDERING EVOLVING PATTERN WE PREFER THE WETTER
GFS SOLUTION OVER THE DRYER EUROPEAN MODELS. IN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW...THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WEST OF MANATI LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE HRWRF MODEL.

SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE ITCZ AND
NEAR 50W EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NHC UPPED THEIR PROBABILITY OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION TO 60 PERCENT AS CONVECTION/WINDS
STRENGTHENED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE GLOBAL
MODELS...ALTHOUGH THEY DIVERGE ON THE TIMING...THEY NOW AGREE ON
THE POSSIBLE TRAJECTORY OF THIS FEATURE. DURING THE
PERIOD...BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FAVOR A DIVERGENT PATTERN
ALOFT...WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AND CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION. PER THE MODEL GUIDANCE...HUMACAO/BARCELONETA AND SAINT
CROIX/VIEQUES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE BRUNT OF THIS
SYSTEM. IN THIS AREA THE FORECASTED MAXIMA RANGES BETWEEN 50-75MM.
THIS SEEM REASONABLE ACROSS THE VI AND VIEQUES. BUT OVER SOUTHEAST
PR...STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING IN THE AREA IS  LIKELY TO FAVOR
MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS.

FIGUEROA...MARN (EL SALVADOR)
VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 310900
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

VALID 12Z THU JUL 31 2014 - 12Z SAT AUG 02 2014

...HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY...

...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WET OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...


AN ORGANIZED AREA OF HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY SINKING
THROUGH EAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY.  LOCATIONS SURROUNDING THE
ARK-LA-TEX REGION SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS AND
GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING.  THE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIDE FARTHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE WAVE WEAKENS
WHILE DROPPING TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA COAST.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY SHOVED WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
WILL GRADUALLY EDGE BACK WESTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...COMBINED WITH WEAK ENERGY
ALOFT...SHOULD FUEL AND TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.  MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE TERRAIN
SHOULD LEAD TO ESPECIALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.  RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD NORTH ON
FRIDAY...IMPACTING MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE TERRAIN OF THE
WESTERN U.S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...AND LOCATIONS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO COULD SEE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

SUMMER HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE THIS WEEK.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COULD
APPROACH OR REACH TRIPLE DIGITS BENEATH A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIED OVER THE REGION.

WEAK ENERGY ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER VORTEX SPINNING OVER EASTERN
CANADA SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.


GERHARDT


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 310900
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

VALID 12Z THU JUL 31 2014 - 12Z SAT AUG 02 2014

...HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY...

...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WET OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...


AN ORGANIZED AREA OF HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY SINKING
THROUGH EAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY.  LOCATIONS SURROUNDING THE
ARK-LA-TEX REGION SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS AND
GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING.  THE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIDE FARTHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE WAVE WEAKENS
WHILE DROPPING TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA COAST.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY SHOVED WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
WILL GRADUALLY EDGE BACK WESTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...COMBINED WITH WEAK ENERGY
ALOFT...SHOULD FUEL AND TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.  MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE TERRAIN
SHOULD LEAD TO ESPECIALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.  RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD NORTH ON
FRIDAY...IMPACTING MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE TERRAIN OF THE
WESTERN U.S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...AND LOCATIONS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO COULD SEE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

SUMMER HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE THIS WEEK.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COULD
APPROACH OR REACH TRIPLE DIGITS BENEATH A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIED OVER THE REGION.

WEAK ENERGY ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER VORTEX SPINNING OVER EASTERN
CANADA SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.


GERHARDT


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 310526
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
125 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 03 2014 - 12Z THU AUG 07 2014

...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...

THE WELL-FORECAST AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL SOON COME TO AN END OVER
THE CONUS... BUT THE RIDGING WILL STAY IN THE PAC NW WHILE
TROUGHING SHOULD LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. THE
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR SEVERAL
CYCLES... BUT THE SPECIFICS... AND HOW WE GET THERE... ARE FUZZY.
FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD... SUN-TUE... WILL FEATURE THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF AND EAST COASTS WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY PUSHES THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC... PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND OH VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST. HEIGHTS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER OVER THE SW STATES AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AS INITIALLY WEAK ENERGY MEANDERS OUT OF
SW CANADA BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPING THIS VORT MAX INTO SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED/CLOSED OFF
IN VARIOUS RUNS WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN WEAKER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE. THE CANADIAN MAY WANT TO HAVE IT BOTH WAYS -- A BIT
STRONGER BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE. THE ENSEMBLES SHOW ANYTHING AND
EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF... AND BEYOND... SO HAVE OPTED
TO SPLIT THAT DIFFERENCE FOR NOW.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

THE RECORD WARM/COLD OF THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS
THE PROJECTED TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES SHOULD BE IN THE +/- 5-12F
RANGE RATHER THAN THE 15-25F RANGE. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ROCKIES SHOULD BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE WHILE THE PAC NW STAYS A
BIT ABOVE AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE LESS PLENTIFUL BY MIDWEEK AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO NW
MEXICO. TO THE NORTH... THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRECIP WITH THE
HEIGHT FALLS IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WED-THU... BUT AMOUNTS AND ORIENTATION ARE CONTINGENT ON THE YET
UNKNOWN SPEED/AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ANY SFC REFLECTION.


FRACASSO

$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 310526
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
125 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 03 2014 - 12Z THU AUG 07 2014

...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...

THE WELL-FORECAST AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL SOON COME TO AN END OVER
THE CONUS... BUT THE RIDGING WILL STAY IN THE PAC NW WHILE
TROUGHING SHOULD LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. THE
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR SEVERAL
CYCLES... BUT THE SPECIFICS... AND HOW WE GET THERE... ARE FUZZY.
FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD... SUN-TUE... WILL FEATURE THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF AND EAST COASTS WHILE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY PUSHES THROUGH ONTARIO AND QUEBEC... PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND OH VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST. HEIGHTS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER OVER THE SW STATES AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AS INITIALLY WEAK ENERGY MEANDERS OUT OF
SW CANADA BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPING THIS VORT MAX INTO SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED/CLOSED OFF
IN VARIOUS RUNS WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN WEAKER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE. THE CANADIAN MAY WANT TO HAVE IT BOTH WAYS -- A BIT
STRONGER BUT STILL PROGRESSIVE. THE ENSEMBLES SHOW ANYTHING AND
EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF... AND BEYOND... SO HAVE OPTED
TO SPLIT THAT DIFFERENCE FOR NOW.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

THE RECORD WARM/COLD OF THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS
THE PROJECTED TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES SHOULD BE IN THE +/- 5-12F
RANGE RATHER THAN THE 15-25F RANGE. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
ROCKIES SHOULD BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE WHILE THE PAC NW STAYS A
BIT ABOVE AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE LESS PLENTIFUL BY MIDWEEK AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO NW
MEXICO. TO THE NORTH... THERE SHOULD BE SOME PRECIP WITH THE
HEIGHT FALLS IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WED-THU... BUT AMOUNTS AND ORIENTATION ARE CONTINGENT ON THE YET
UNKNOWN SPEED/AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ANY SFC REFLECTION.


FRACASSO

$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 302100
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
459 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VALID 00Z THU JUL 31 2014 - 00Z SAT AUG 02 2014

...HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

...PLEASANTLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

AN UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE THAT MOVED OFF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES HAS BEEN
A TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA TODAY.  THIS AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
STEADILY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE RAIN CAN BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, AS THE SYSTEM REACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.

AN ANOMALOUS DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION, PROVIDING UNUSUALLY COOL
TEMPERATURES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER.  THE GREAT LAKES WILL
AGAIN SEE LOW TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THE MID-40`S IN THE MIDDLE
OF SUMMER ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH CAN BE LAKE-ENHANCED!  TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
FLORIDA.

MEANWHILE, HEAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
EASTWARD INTO MONTANA UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.  FARTHER
SOUTH...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.


KONG


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 302100
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
459 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VALID 00Z THU JUL 31 2014 - 00Z SAT AUG 02 2014

...HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

...PLEASANTLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

AN UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE THAT MOVED OFF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES HAS BEEN
A TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA TODAY.  THIS AREA OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
STEADILY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE RAIN CAN BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, AS THE SYSTEM REACHES THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.

AN ANOMALOUS DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION, PROVIDING UNUSUALLY COOL
TEMPERATURES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE COUNTRY EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR THE MIDDLE OF SUMMER.  THE GREAT LAKES WILL
AGAIN SEE LOW TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS THE MID-40`S IN THE MIDDLE
OF SUMMER ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH CAN BE LAKE-ENHANCED!  TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
FLORIDA.

MEANWHILE, HEAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
EASTWARD INTO MONTANA UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.  FARTHER
SOUTH...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  TYPICAL SUMMER HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.


KONG


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS06 KWBC 301901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JULY 30 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 05 - 09 2014

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 6-10 DAY MEAN 500-HPA
HEIGHTS OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. THE MODELS PERSIST THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. TODAY`S MODELS PREDICTIONS FOR 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY`S PREDICTIONS, SO THERE ARE RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES IN THE
RESPECTIVE SURFACE FORECASTS.  ALASKA REMAINS THE MOST DIFFICULT REGION OF THE
COUNTRY TO FORECAST DUE TO A RELATIVELY COMPLEX 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN FORECAST
OVER THE STATE, WITH A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH PREDICTED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE, WHILE A FAIRLY SHARP RIDGE IS FORECAST JUST OFF THE WESTERN ALASKAN
COAST.

THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S, WITH CHANCES
OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WEST. THE AXIS OF THE EASTERN
TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST TODAY THAN IN YESTERDAYS SOLUTION, INCREASING
THE CHANCES OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND ENHANCING
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEAR FLORIDA. A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT IN
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IS EXPECTED JUST WEST OF THE ROCKIES, LEADING TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN ALASKA, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE ARE MUCH LESS CERTAIN DUE TO THE TROUGH FORECAST TO
BE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, IN ASSOCIATION WITH EXPECTED PRECIPITATION.

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AN
EXPECTED MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, AND THEN ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  TOOLS SUGGEST A RATHER WIDE AREA OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES, SUGGESTING A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY
OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NAEFS AND THE GEFS REFORECAST TOOL CONTINUES TO SHOW
ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN PARTS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FAVORED NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S OUTLOOK, TODAY`S TOOLS SHOW
INCREASING CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON. THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA, AHEAD OF AN EXPECTED TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS FAVORED FOR THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.  TODAY`S PRECIPITATION TOOLS SUGGEST
DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE THAN INDICATED YESTERDAY, HOWEVER,
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REVISED TOWARD HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IN THE REGION.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8.

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY`S 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY`S MODELS AND TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 07 - 13 2014

THE ANOMALY PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE CONUS AND
SOUTHERN CANADA IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY MEAN ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
ANOMALIES ARE QUITE SMALL. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW AN EASTERN TROUGH THAT IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER, AND FARTHER
WEST THAN NORMAL. ELSEWHERE OVER MOST OF NORTH AMERICA, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
PREDICT THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE LONG TERM AVERAGES. THE
ONLY SUBSTANTIAL ANOMALIES EVIDENT ON THE 8-14 DAY ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA, WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS PREDICTED
IN A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH (ECMWF, CANADIAN) OR SOUTHWEST (GEFS) OF THE STATE.

IN SPITE OF THE FORECAST FOR WEAK UPPER-LEVEL ANOMALIES, THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES ARE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT AMONG THE
TOOLS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO MODEL CONSENSUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD, SINCE THE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR 8-14 DAYS ARE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10
DAY OUTLOOK.  CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK TWO PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO BE
UNCERTAIN. THE NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST TOOL INDICATIONS FOR BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAK SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON
OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE MONSOON REGION.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 30 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS OFFSET BY AN EXPECTED PROGRESSION TO
A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA.

FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19670711 - 20080808 - 19620721 - 19650727 - 19560716


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19670711 - 19620722 - 20080808 - 20040804 - 19600709


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 05 - 09 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    B    N
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   B    B
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    N    N



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 07 - 13 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    B    N
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   N    N     WISCONSIN   B    B
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    B
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$





000
FXUS06 KWBC 301901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JULY 30 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 05 - 09 2014

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 6-10 DAY MEAN 500-HPA
HEIGHTS OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. THE MODELS PERSIST THE LONG-WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. TODAY`S MODELS PREDICTIONS FOR 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY`S PREDICTIONS, SO THERE ARE RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES IN THE
RESPECTIVE SURFACE FORECASTS.  ALASKA REMAINS THE MOST DIFFICULT REGION OF THE
COUNTRY TO FORECAST DUE TO A RELATIVELY COMPLEX 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN FORECAST
OVER THE STATE, WITH A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH PREDICTED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE, WHILE A FAIRLY SHARP RIDGE IS FORECAST JUST OFF THE WESTERN ALASKAN
COAST.

THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S, WITH CHANCES
OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WEST. THE AXIS OF THE EASTERN
TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST TODAY THAN IN YESTERDAYS SOLUTION, INCREASING
THE CHANCES OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND ENHANCING
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEAR FLORIDA. A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT IN
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IS EXPECTED JUST WEST OF THE ROCKIES, LEADING TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN ALASKA, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE ARE MUCH LESS CERTAIN DUE TO THE TROUGH FORECAST TO
BE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, IN ASSOCIATION WITH EXPECTED PRECIPITATION.

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AN
EXPECTED MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS, AND THEN ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.  TOOLS SUGGEST A RATHER WIDE AREA OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES, SUGGESTING A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY
OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NAEFS AND THE GEFS REFORECAST TOOL CONTINUES TO SHOW
ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN PARTS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FAVORED NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S OUTLOOK, TODAY`S TOOLS SHOW
INCREASING CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON. THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA, AHEAD OF AN EXPECTED TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS FAVORED FOR THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.  TODAY`S PRECIPITATION TOOLS SUGGEST
DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE THAN INDICATED YESTERDAY, HOWEVER,
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REVISED TOWARD HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IN THE REGION.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8.

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY`S 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY`S MODELS AND TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 07 - 13 2014

THE ANOMALY PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE CONUS AND
SOUTHERN CANADA IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY MEAN ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
ANOMALIES ARE QUITE SMALL. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND
CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW AN EASTERN TROUGH THAT IS SLIGHTLY DEEPER, AND FARTHER
WEST THAN NORMAL. ELSEWHERE OVER MOST OF NORTH AMERICA, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
PREDICT THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE LONG TERM AVERAGES. THE
ONLY SUBSTANTIAL ANOMALIES EVIDENT ON THE 8-14 DAY ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA, WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS PREDICTED
IN A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH (ECMWF, CANADIAN) OR SOUTHWEST (GEFS) OF THE STATE.

IN SPITE OF THE FORECAST FOR WEAK UPPER-LEVEL ANOMALIES, THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES ARE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT AMONG THE
TOOLS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO MODEL CONSENSUS EARLY IN THE PERIOD, SINCE THE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR 8-14 DAYS ARE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10
DAY OUTLOOK.  CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK TWO PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO BE
UNCERTAIN. THE NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST TOOL INDICATIONS FOR BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A WEAK SOUTHWESTERN MONSOON
OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE MONSOON REGION.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 30 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS OFFSET BY AN EXPECTED PROGRESSION TO
A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA.

FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19670711 - 20080808 - 19620721 - 19650727 - 19560716


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19670711 - 19620722 - 20080808 - 20040804 - 19600709


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 05 - 09 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    B    N
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   B    B
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    N    N



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 07 - 13 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    B    N
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   N    N     WISCONSIN   B    B
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    B
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$






000
FXSA20 KWBC 301852
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

MODEL DISCUSSION (VALID FROM 30 JULY 00UTC): MINOR SHORT WAVE
PATTERN CORRECTIONS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.

AT MID LEVELS...CLOSED LOW ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS TO ANCHOR A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO HOLD THROUGH 84-96 HRS...THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN LATER IN
THE CYCLE AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. AS THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH HOLDS...IT IS TO PRESS AGAINST
A RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND WEST TO EAST
ALONG 30S DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS...IN-TURN...WILL RESULT
IN A TIGHT BELT OF MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC-SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A VERY STRONG JET STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN...WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO PEAK AT 170-200KT.
SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS EMBED IN THIS FLOW. IN THIS
PATTERN...STRONG PERTURBATIONS ARE TO ENTER THE CONTINENT AT 24
AND 72/84 HRS...TO SUSTAIN HEIGHT FALLS OF 100-150GPM AS THEY
STREAM ACROSS THE CONTINENT. IN BETWEEN...WEAKER PERTURBATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN CONE. THIS IS TO ALSO SUSTAIN A
MOIST ADVECTIVE PATTERN...FAVORING TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF CHILE. AT LOW LEVELS...THE TROUGH ALOFT SUSTAINS A BROAD TROUGH
ACROSS THE BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA/SOUTHEAST PACIFIC. SUCCESSIVE POLAR
FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO REVOLVE AROUND THIS AXIS. THESE ARE TO THEN
RAPIDLY STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHILE SUSTAINING BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS OF 25-40KT. INFLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND STRONG
TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING IS TO THEN FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MOST INTENSE IS EXPECTED EARLY ON DAY 02
AND LATER ON DAY 03...WITH MAXIMA TO PEAK AT 50-100MM. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING.
OTHER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TALCA AND
VALPARAISO IN CENTRAL CHILE...WITH RAINFALL MAXIMA IN THIS AREA TO
PEAK AT 20-30MM. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ANDES OF CHILE ON DAY 02...WITH MAXIMA
OF 10-15CM.

FRONTS STREAMING ACROSS CHILE ARE TO THEN MEANDER NORTH ACROSS RIO
DE LA PLATA TO URUGUAY/ENTRE RIOS IN ARGENTINA. THIS BOUNDARY IS
TO GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH 96-120 HRS. ALSO AT LOW LEVELS...A
NORTHERLY JET ACROSS EASTERN BOLIVIA/PARAGUAY WILL SUSTAIN A
WARM/MOIST ADVECTIVE PATTERN. THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE WILL HELP
SUSTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES OF 18-20C ACROSS THE
MESOPOTAMIA VALLEY IN ARGENTINA TO URUGUAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS STREAMING ACROSS CHILE TO
ARGENTINA TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM/DAY THROUGH 60 HRS...AND 20-30MM AT
72-96 HRS. IN THIS AREA...FORECASTED STABILITY INDICES SHOW RISK
OF SEVERE CONVECTION ON DAYS 03-04 AS DEEP MID LEVEL PERTURBATION
MOVES ACROSS ARGENTINA. ALTHOUGH MODELS FORESEE A VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS...JET DYNAMICS APPEAR MARGINAL AT BEST...REDUCING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO LOW.

NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC...AN ELONGATED FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO
NORTHERN ESPIRITO SANTO/BAHIA IN BRASIL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...TO SUSTAIN MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THROUGH 48-60 HRS THIS IS TO PEAK AT
15-25MM/DAY...AND THROUGH 84-96 HRS IT IS TO DECREASE TO 05-10MM.

NORTH OVER THE CONTINENT...AT 200 HPA...A HIGH OVER EASTERN
ECUADOR  ANCHORS A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. THIS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...WITH RIDGE TO THEN RAPIDLY
WEAKEN. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIES TO THE EAST...WITH AXIS NORTHWEST
ACROSS MATO GROSSO IN BRASIL TO AMAZONAS/SOUTHERN COLOMBIA.
THROUGH 72 HRS THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN AS THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS TO ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST BRASIL-NORTHERN JUNGLE OF
PERU/EASTERN ECUADOR...WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THIS AREA TO
PEAK AT 05-10MM. A SLIGHT INCREASE IS THEN EXPECTED LATER ON DAY
04 AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.

FERNANDES...INMET (BRASIL)
JALFIN...SMN (ARGENTINA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXSA20 KWBC 301852
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

MODEL DISCUSSION (VALID FROM 30 JULY 00UTC): MINOR SHORT WAVE
PATTERN CORRECTIONS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.

AT MID LEVELS...CLOSED LOW ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS TO ANCHOR A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO HOLD THROUGH 84-96 HRS...THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN LATER IN
THE CYCLE AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. AS THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH HOLDS...IT IS TO PRESS AGAINST
A RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND WEST TO EAST
ALONG 30S DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS...IN-TURN...WILL RESULT
IN A TIGHT BELT OF MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC-SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A VERY STRONG JET STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN...WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO PEAK AT 170-200KT.
SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS EMBED IN THIS FLOW. IN THIS
PATTERN...STRONG PERTURBATIONS ARE TO ENTER THE CONTINENT AT 24
AND 72/84 HRS...TO SUSTAIN HEIGHT FALLS OF 100-150GPM AS THEY
STREAM ACROSS THE CONTINENT. IN BETWEEN...WEAKER PERTURBATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN CONE. THIS IS TO ALSO SUSTAIN A
MOIST ADVECTIVE PATTERN...FAVORING TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF CHILE. AT LOW LEVELS...THE TROUGH ALOFT SUSTAINS A BROAD TROUGH
ACROSS THE BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA/SOUTHEAST PACIFIC. SUCCESSIVE POLAR
FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO REVOLVE AROUND THIS AXIS. THESE ARE TO THEN
RAPIDLY STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHILE SUSTAINING BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS OF 25-40KT. INFLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND STRONG
TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING IS TO THEN FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MOST INTENSE IS EXPECTED EARLY ON DAY 02
AND LATER ON DAY 03...WITH MAXIMA TO PEAK AT 50-100MM. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING.
OTHER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TALCA AND
VALPARAISO IN CENTRAL CHILE...WITH RAINFALL MAXIMA IN THIS AREA TO
PEAK AT 20-30MM. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ANDES OF CHILE ON DAY 02...WITH MAXIMA
OF 10-15CM.

FRONTS STREAMING ACROSS CHILE ARE TO THEN MEANDER NORTH ACROSS RIO
DE LA PLATA TO URUGUAY/ENTRE RIOS IN ARGENTINA. THIS BOUNDARY IS
TO GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH 96-120 HRS. ALSO AT LOW LEVELS...A
NORTHERLY JET ACROSS EASTERN BOLIVIA/PARAGUAY WILL SUSTAIN A
WARM/MOIST ADVECTIVE PATTERN. THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE WILL HELP
SUSTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES OF 18-20C ACROSS THE
MESOPOTAMIA VALLEY IN ARGENTINA TO URUGUAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS STREAMING ACROSS CHILE TO
ARGENTINA TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM/DAY THROUGH 60 HRS...AND 20-30MM AT
72-96 HRS. IN THIS AREA...FORECASTED STABILITY INDICES SHOW RISK
OF SEVERE CONVECTION ON DAYS 03-04 AS DEEP MID LEVEL PERTURBATION
MOVES ACROSS ARGENTINA. ALTHOUGH MODELS FORESEE A VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS...JET DYNAMICS APPEAR MARGINAL AT BEST...REDUCING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO LOW.

NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC...AN ELONGATED FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO
NORTHERN ESPIRITO SANTO/BAHIA IN BRASIL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...TO SUSTAIN MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THROUGH 48-60 HRS THIS IS TO PEAK AT
15-25MM/DAY...AND THROUGH 84-96 HRS IT IS TO DECREASE TO 05-10MM.

NORTH OVER THE CONTINENT...AT 200 HPA...A HIGH OVER EASTERN
ECUADOR  ANCHORS A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. THIS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...WITH RIDGE TO THEN RAPIDLY
WEAKEN. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIES TO THE EAST...WITH AXIS NORTHWEST
ACROSS MATO GROSSO IN BRASIL TO AMAZONAS/SOUTHERN COLOMBIA.
THROUGH 72 HRS THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN AS THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS TO ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST BRASIL-NORTHERN JUNGLE OF
PERU/EASTERN ECUADOR...WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THIS AREA TO
PEAK AT 05-10MM. A SLIGHT INCREASE IS THEN EXPECTED LATER ON DAY
04 AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.

FERNANDES...INMET (BRASIL)
JALFIN...SMN (ARGENTINA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXSA20 KWBC 301852
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

MODEL DISCUSSION (VALID FROM 30 JULY 00UTC): MINOR SHORT WAVE
PATTERN CORRECTIONS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.

AT MID LEVELS...CLOSED LOW ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS TO ANCHOR A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO HOLD THROUGH 84-96 HRS...THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN LATER IN
THE CYCLE AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. AS THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH HOLDS...IT IS TO PRESS AGAINST
A RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND WEST TO EAST
ALONG 30S DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS...IN-TURN...WILL RESULT
IN A TIGHT BELT OF MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC-SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A VERY STRONG JET STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN...WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO PEAK AT 170-200KT.
SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS EMBED IN THIS FLOW. IN THIS
PATTERN...STRONG PERTURBATIONS ARE TO ENTER THE CONTINENT AT 24
AND 72/84 HRS...TO SUSTAIN HEIGHT FALLS OF 100-150GPM AS THEY
STREAM ACROSS THE CONTINENT. IN BETWEEN...WEAKER PERTURBATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN CONE. THIS IS TO ALSO SUSTAIN A
MOIST ADVECTIVE PATTERN...FAVORING TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF CHILE. AT LOW LEVELS...THE TROUGH ALOFT SUSTAINS A BROAD TROUGH
ACROSS THE BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA/SOUTHEAST PACIFIC. SUCCESSIVE POLAR
FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO REVOLVE AROUND THIS AXIS. THESE ARE TO THEN
RAPIDLY STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHILE SUSTAINING BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS OF 25-40KT. INFLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND STRONG
TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING IS TO THEN FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MOST INTENSE IS EXPECTED EARLY ON DAY 02
AND LATER ON DAY 03...WITH MAXIMA TO PEAK AT 50-100MM. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING.
OTHER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TALCA AND
VALPARAISO IN CENTRAL CHILE...WITH RAINFALL MAXIMA IN THIS AREA TO
PEAK AT 20-30MM. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ANDES OF CHILE ON DAY 02...WITH MAXIMA
OF 10-15CM.

FRONTS STREAMING ACROSS CHILE ARE TO THEN MEANDER NORTH ACROSS RIO
DE LA PLATA TO URUGUAY/ENTRE RIOS IN ARGENTINA. THIS BOUNDARY IS
TO GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH 96-120 HRS. ALSO AT LOW LEVELS...A
NORTHERLY JET ACROSS EASTERN BOLIVIA/PARAGUAY WILL SUSTAIN A
WARM/MOIST ADVECTIVE PATTERN. THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE WILL HELP
SUSTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES OF 18-20C ACROSS THE
MESOPOTAMIA VALLEY IN ARGENTINA TO URUGUAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS STREAMING ACROSS CHILE TO
ARGENTINA TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM/DAY THROUGH 60 HRS...AND 20-30MM AT
72-96 HRS. IN THIS AREA...FORECASTED STABILITY INDICES SHOW RISK
OF SEVERE CONVECTION ON DAYS 03-04 AS DEEP MID LEVEL PERTURBATION
MOVES ACROSS ARGENTINA. ALTHOUGH MODELS FORESEE A VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS...JET DYNAMICS APPEAR MARGINAL AT BEST...REDUCING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO LOW.

NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC...AN ELONGATED FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO
NORTHERN ESPIRITO SANTO/BAHIA IN BRASIL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...TO SUSTAIN MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THROUGH 48-60 HRS THIS IS TO PEAK AT
15-25MM/DAY...AND THROUGH 84-96 HRS IT IS TO DECREASE TO 05-10MM.

NORTH OVER THE CONTINENT...AT 200 HPA...A HIGH OVER EASTERN
ECUADOR  ANCHORS A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. THIS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...WITH RIDGE TO THEN RAPIDLY
WEAKEN. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIES TO THE EAST...WITH AXIS NORTHWEST
ACROSS MATO GROSSO IN BRASIL TO AMAZONAS/SOUTHERN COLOMBIA.
THROUGH 72 HRS THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN AS THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS TO ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST BRASIL-NORTHERN JUNGLE OF
PERU/EASTERN ECUADOR...WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THIS AREA TO
PEAK AT 05-10MM. A SLIGHT INCREASE IS THEN EXPECTED LATER ON DAY
04 AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.

FERNANDES...INMET (BRASIL)
JALFIN...SMN (ARGENTINA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 301835
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

DISCUSSION FROM JULY 30/00UTC: MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE MESO/SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN
USA-NORTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE REMAINS WELL
ENTRENCHED...AND AT 250 HPA IT IS TO ANCHOR ON A CLOSED HIGH OVER
NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA/SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS PATTER IS TO HOLD WELL
INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A TUTT LOW TO THE SOUTH NOW CENTERS
JUST WEST OF COLIMA/NAYARIT...WHILE EXTENDING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
INTO THE CENTRAL STATES OF MEXICO. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH THE TROUGH/LOW IS TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AS IT PULLS NORTH...THE TROUGH IS TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL OF MEXICO. IN THIS
AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.
ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY THE MAXIMA INCREASES TO 35-70MM.

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE...A POLAR TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN USA TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS TO
GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENS
TO THE WEST. THE LATTER IS TO EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL USA LATER IN
THE DAY...AND THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING IT IS TO TAKE ITS PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN USA TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. AT LOW
LEVELS THE TROUGH ALOFT SUSTAINS A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
USA TO THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...A PATTERN EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. THIS IS TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

ANOTHER TUTT LOW IS INITIALIZED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS NEAR 25N 66W.
THIS EXTENDS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. RIDGE
TO THE WEST WILL DRIVE THE LOW TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...NEARING
NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER ON FRIDAY...WHILE EXTENDING A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AT MID LEVELS THIS IS
TO INITIALLY REFLECT AS A WELL ORGANIZED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO
THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING THIS IS TO WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MEANDERS WEST
TOWARDS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AT LOW LEVELS IT SUSTAINS INDUCED
PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLY TRADES...SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS. AS
THE TUTT LOW MEANDERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO-HISPANIOLA IT IS TO
ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION. MOST ACTIVE OVER PUERTO RICO IS
EXPECTED ON WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...WHILE OVER
HISPANIOLA MOST ACTIVE IS TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS.
OVERALL EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM.

FURTHERMORE...A THIRD TUTT LOW CENTERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLES... EXTENDING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.
UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH THIS IS TO RETROGRESS
TOWARDS CENTRAL AMERICA WHILE WEAKENING TO AN OPEN TROUGH. BUT AS
AFOREMENTIONED POLAR TROUGH ESTABLISHES OVER THE EASTERN USA...AND
AN INDUCED TROUGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE
TUTT PATTERN IS TO ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN. AS THE TROUGH
RETROGRESSES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IT IS TO INITIALLY FAVOR AN
UPPER CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT PATTERN. BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS HONDURAS-EL SALVADOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY ESTABLISH. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY
THROUGH MIDDAY ON THURSDAY...WHEN THIS IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE
DIURNAL CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. OTHER CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA...WHERE IN
INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS LATER IN
THE CYCLE...IT IS TO FAVOR AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA...TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
44W     46W    49W    51W    54W    57W    60W    63W     TW
63W     65W    67W    69W    72W    75W    78W    80W     TUTT
INDUCED
72W     73W    74W    75W    77W    78W    DISSIP         TUTT
INDUCED
96W    100W   103W   107W   110W   112W   114W    DISSIP  TW

THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W REMAINS THE SYSTEM OF CONCERN. THE NHC
CONTINUES TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. DUSTY/DRY AIR TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN INTO
THE SYSTEM...AND THEY NOW FORESEE A SLOWER EVOLUTION.
MEANWHILE...IF IT WERE TO REMAIN AN OPEN WAVE...IT SHOULD BE
ENTERING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING...WHERE IT
IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-40MM.

A TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION ON THE EASTERLY TRADES ENTERED THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AXIS NORTH ALONG 63W.
A MOIST PLUME TRAILS THIS WAVE...FOCUSING MOISTURE ACROSS
BARBADOS-WINDWARD/FRENCH ISLES...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THIS IS TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
THE USVI TO PUERTO RICO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WHERE IT IS TO
SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION. ACROSS HISPANIOLA IT IS TO THEN SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE OVER JAMAICA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON FRIDAY. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN-CENTRAL CUBA AS IT INTERACTS WITH TUTT TO
THE WEST...TO SUSTAIN MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.

ANOTHER TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION IS INITIALIZED ALONG 72W. THIS
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...ACROSS HISPANIOLA IT WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OVER JAMAICA IT WILL FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA MAXIMA PEAKS AT 30-60MM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W IS TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL-SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM AS IT INTERACTS WITH
TUTT TO THE WEST.

FIGUEROA...MARN (EL SALVADOR)
VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 301835
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

DISCUSSION FROM JULY 30/00UTC: MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE MESO/SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN
USA-NORTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. THIS RIDGE REMAINS WELL
ENTRENCHED...AND AT 250 HPA IT IS TO ANCHOR ON A CLOSED HIGH OVER
NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA/SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THIS PATTER IS TO HOLD WELL
INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A TUTT LOW TO THE SOUTH NOW CENTERS
JUST WEST OF COLIMA/NAYARIT...WHILE EXTENDING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
INTO THE CENTRAL STATES OF MEXICO. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH THE TROUGH/LOW IS TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS THE BAJA
PENINSULA. AS IT PULLS NORTH...THE TROUGH IS TO ENHANCE DIURNAL
CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL OF MEXICO. IN THIS
AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.
ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY THE MAXIMA INCREASES TO 35-70MM.

EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE...A POLAR TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN USA TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS TO
GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENS
TO THE WEST. THE LATTER IS TO EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL USA LATER IN
THE DAY...AND THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING IT IS TO TAKE ITS PLACE
ACROSS THE EASTERN USA TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. AT LOW
LEVELS THE TROUGH ALOFT SUSTAINS A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
USA TO THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...A PATTERN EXPECTED TO
PERSIST. THIS IS TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

ANOTHER TUTT LOW IS INITIALIZED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS NEAR 25N 66W.
THIS EXTENDS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. RIDGE
TO THE WEST WILL DRIVE THE LOW TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...NEARING
NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER ON FRIDAY...WHILE EXTENDING A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AT MID LEVELS THIS IS
TO INITIALLY REFLECT AS A WELL ORGANIZED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO
THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING THIS IS TO WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT MEANDERS WEST
TOWARDS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AT LOW LEVELS IT SUSTAINS INDUCED
PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLY TRADES...SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS. AS
THE TUTT LOW MEANDERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO-HISPANIOLA IT IS TO
ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION. MOST ACTIVE OVER PUERTO RICO IS
EXPECTED ON WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...WHILE OVER
HISPANIOLA MOST ACTIVE IS TO BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS.
OVERALL EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM.

FURTHERMORE...A THIRD TUTT LOW CENTERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLES... EXTENDING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.
UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH THIS IS TO RETROGRESS
TOWARDS CENTRAL AMERICA WHILE WEAKENING TO AN OPEN TROUGH. BUT AS
AFOREMENTIONED POLAR TROUGH ESTABLISHES OVER THE EASTERN USA...AND
AN INDUCED TROUGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE
TUTT PATTERN IS TO ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN. AS THE TROUGH
RETROGRESSES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IT IS TO INITIALLY FAVOR AN
UPPER CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT PATTERN. BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS HONDURAS-EL SALVADOR DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL
BRIEFLY ESTABLISH. AS A RESULT...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY
THROUGH MIDDAY ON THURSDAY...WHEN THIS IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE
DIURNAL CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. OTHER CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA...WHERE IN
INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS LATER IN
THE CYCLE...IT IS TO FAVOR AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA...TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
44W     46W    49W    51W    54W    57W    60W    63W     TW
63W     65W    67W    69W    72W    75W    78W    80W     TUTT
INDUCED
72W     73W    74W    75W    77W    78W    DISSIP         TUTT
INDUCED
96W    100W   103W   107W   110W   112W   114W    DISSIP  TW

THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W REMAINS THE SYSTEM OF CONCERN. THE NHC
CONTINUES TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. DUSTY/DRY AIR TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN INTO
THE SYSTEM...AND THEY NOW FORESEE A SLOWER EVOLUTION.
MEANWHILE...IF IT WERE TO REMAIN AN OPEN WAVE...IT SHOULD BE
ENTERING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING...WHERE IT
IS FORECAST TO TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-40MM.

A TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION ON THE EASTERLY TRADES ENTERED THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH AXIS NORTH ALONG 63W.
A MOIST PLUME TRAILS THIS WAVE...FOCUSING MOISTURE ACROSS
BARBADOS-WINDWARD/FRENCH ISLES...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THIS IS TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
THE USVI TO PUERTO RICO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WHERE IT IS TO
SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION. ACROSS HISPANIOLA IT IS TO THEN SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WHILE OVER JAMAICA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON FRIDAY. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN-CENTRAL CUBA AS IT INTERACTS WITH TUTT TO
THE WEST...TO SUSTAIN MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.

ANOTHER TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION IS INITIALIZED ALONG 72W. THIS
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE...ACROSS HISPANIOLA IT WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OVER JAMAICA IT WILL FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA MAXIMA PEAKS AT 30-60MM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W IS TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL-SOUTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM AS IT INTERACTS WITH
TUTT TO THE WEST.

FIGUEROA...MARN (EL SALVADOR)
VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXSA20 KWBC 301634
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1234 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

MODEL DISCUSSION (VALID FROM 29 JULY 00UTC): MINOR SHORT WAVE
PATTERN CORRECTIONS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.

AT MID LEVELS...CLOSED LOW ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS TO ANCHOR A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO HOLD THROUGH 84-96 HRS...THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN LATER IN
THE CYCLE AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. AS THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH HOLDS...IT IS TO PRESS AGAINST
A RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND WEST TO EAST
ALONG 30S DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS...IN-TURN...WILL RESULT
IN A TIGHT BELT OF MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC-SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A VERY STRONG JET STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN...WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO PEAK AT 170-200KT.
SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS EMBED IN THIS FLOW. IN THIS
PATTERN...STRONG PERTURBATIONS ARE TO ENTER THE CONTINENT AT 24
AND 72/84 HRS...TO SUSTAIN HEIGHT FALLS OF 100-150GPM AS THEY
STREAM ACROSS THE CONTINENT. IN BETWEEN...WEAKER PERTURBATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN CONE. THIS IS TO ALSO SUSTAIN A
MOIST ADVECTIVE PATTERN...FAVORING TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF CHILE. AT LOW LEVELS...THE TROUGH ALOFT SUSTAINS A BROAD TROUGH
ACROSS THE BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA/SOUTHEAST PACIFIC. SUCCESSIVE POLAR
FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO REVOLVE AROUND THIS AXIS. THESE ARE TO THEN
RAPIDLY STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHILE SUSTAINING BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS OF 25-40KT. INFLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND STRONG
TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING IS TO THEN FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MOST INTENSE IS EXPECTED EARLY ON DAY 02
AND LATER ON DAY 03...WITH MAXIMA TO PEAK AT 50-100MM. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING.
OTHER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TALCA AND
VALPARAISO IN CENTRAL CHILE...WITH RAINFALL MAXIMA IN THIS AREA TO
PEAK AT 20-30MM. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ANDES OF CHILE ON DAY 02...WITH MAXIMA
OF 10-15CM.

FRONTS STREAMING ACROSS CHILE ARE TO THEN MEANDER NORTH ACROSS RIO
DE LA PLATA TO URUGUAY/ENTRE RIOS IN ARGENTINA. THIS BOUNDARY IS
TO GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH 96-120 HRS. ALSO AT LOW LEVELS...A
NORTHERLY JET ACROSS EASTERN BOLIVIA/PARAGUAY WILL SUSTAIN A
WARM/MOIST ADVECTIVE PATTERN. THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE WILL HELP
SUSTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES OF 18-20C ACROSS THE
MESOPOTAMIA VALLEY IN ARGENTINA TO URUGUAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS STREAMING ACROSS CHILE TO
ARGENTINA TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM/DAY THROUGH 60 HRS...AND 20-30MM AT
72-96 HRS. IN THIS AREA...FORECASTED STABILITY INDICES SHOW RISK
OF SEVERE CONVECTION ON DAYS 03-04 AS DEEP MID LEVEL PERTURBATION
MOVES ACROSS ARGENTINA. ALTHOUGH MODELS FORESEE A VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS...JET DYNAMICS APPEAR MARGINAL AT BEST...REDUCING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO LOW.

NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC...AN ELONGATED FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO
NORTHERN ESPIRITO SANTO/BAHIA IN BRASIL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...TO SUSTAIN MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THROUGH 48-60 HRS THIS IS TO PEAK AT
15-25MM/DAY...AND THROUGH 84-96 HRS IT IS TO DECREASE TO 05-10MM.

NORTH OVER THE CONTINENT...AT 200 HPA...A HIGH OVER EASTERN
ECUADOR  ANCHORS A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. THIS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...WITH RIDGE TO THEN RAPIDLY
WEAKEN. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIES TO THE EAST...WITH AXIS NORTHWEST
ACROSS MATO GROSSO IN BRASIL TO AMAZONAS/SOUTHERN COLOMBIA.
THROUGH 72 HRS THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN AS THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS TO ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST BRASIL-NORTHERN JUNGLE OF
PERU/EASTERN ECUADOR...WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THIS AREA TO
PEAK AT 05-10MM. A SLIGHT INCREASE IS THEN EXPECTED LATER ON DAY
04 AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.

FERNANDES...INMET (BRASIL)
JALFIN...SMN (ARGENTINA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXSA20 KWBC 301634
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1234 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

MODEL DISCUSSION (VALID FROM 29 JULY 00UTC): MINOR SHORT WAVE
PATTERN CORRECTIONS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.

AT MID LEVELS...CLOSED LOW ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS TO ANCHOR A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO HOLD THROUGH 84-96 HRS...THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN LATER IN
THE CYCLE AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. AS THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH HOLDS...IT IS TO PRESS AGAINST
A RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND WEST TO EAST
ALONG 30S DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS...IN-TURN...WILL RESULT
IN A TIGHT BELT OF MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC-SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A VERY STRONG JET STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN...WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO PEAK AT 170-200KT.
SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS EMBED IN THIS FLOW. IN THIS
PATTERN...STRONG PERTURBATIONS ARE TO ENTER THE CONTINENT AT 24
AND 72/84 HRS...TO SUSTAIN HEIGHT FALLS OF 100-150GPM AS THEY
STREAM ACROSS THE CONTINENT. IN BETWEEN...WEAKER PERTURBATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN CONE. THIS IS TO ALSO SUSTAIN A
MOIST ADVECTIVE PATTERN...FAVORING TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF CHILE. AT LOW LEVELS...THE TROUGH ALOFT SUSTAINS A BROAD TROUGH
ACROSS THE BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA/SOUTHEAST PACIFIC. SUCCESSIVE POLAR
FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO REVOLVE AROUND THIS AXIS. THESE ARE TO THEN
RAPIDLY STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHILE SUSTAINING BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS OF 25-40KT. INFLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND STRONG
TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING IS TO THEN FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MOST INTENSE IS EXPECTED EARLY ON DAY 02
AND LATER ON DAY 03...WITH MAXIMA TO PEAK AT 50-100MM. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING.
OTHER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TALCA AND
VALPARAISO IN CENTRAL CHILE...WITH RAINFALL MAXIMA IN THIS AREA TO
PEAK AT 20-30MM. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ANDES OF CHILE ON DAY 02...WITH MAXIMA
OF 10-15CM.

FRONTS STREAMING ACROSS CHILE ARE TO THEN MEANDER NORTH ACROSS RIO
DE LA PLATA TO URUGUAY/ENTRE RIOS IN ARGENTINA. THIS BOUNDARY IS
TO GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH 96-120 HRS. ALSO AT LOW LEVELS...A
NORTHERLY JET ACROSS EASTERN BOLIVIA/PARAGUAY WILL SUSTAIN A
WARM/MOIST ADVECTIVE PATTERN. THE TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE WILL HELP
SUSTAIN BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES OF 18-20C ACROSS THE
MESOPOTAMIA VALLEY IN ARGENTINA TO URUGUAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS STREAMING ACROSS CHILE TO
ARGENTINA TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM/DAY THROUGH 60 HRS...AND 20-30MM AT
72-96 HRS. IN THIS AREA...FORECASTED STABILITY INDICES SHOW RISK
OF SEVERE CONVECTION ON DAYS 03-04 AS DEEP MID LEVEL PERTURBATION
MOVES ACROSS ARGENTINA. ALTHOUGH MODELS FORESEE A VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS...JET DYNAMICS APPEAR MARGINAL AT BEST...REDUCING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO LOW.

NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC...AN ELONGATED FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO
NORTHERN ESPIRITO SANTO/BAHIA IN BRASIL. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...TO SUSTAIN MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THROUGH 48-60 HRS THIS IS TO PEAK AT
15-25MM/DAY...AND THROUGH 84-96 HRS IT IS TO DECREASE TO 05-10MM.

NORTH OVER THE CONTINENT...AT 200 HPA...A HIGH OVER EASTERN
ECUADOR  ANCHORS A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. THIS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...WITH RIDGE TO THEN RAPIDLY
WEAKEN. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIES TO THE EAST...WITH AXIS NORTHWEST
ACROSS MATO GROSSO IN BRASIL TO AMAZONAS/SOUTHERN COLOMBIA.
THROUGH 72 HRS THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN AS THE RIDGE TO
THE WEST WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS TO ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHWEST BRASIL-NORTHERN JUNGLE OF
PERU/EASTERN ECUADOR...WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THIS AREA TO
PEAK AT 05-10MM. A SLIGHT INCREASE IS THEN EXPECTED LATER ON DAY
04 AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.

FERNANDES...INMET (BRASIL)
JALFIN...SMN (ARGENTINA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXSA20 KWBC 301324
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
924 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM 29 JULY 00UTC): AT 200 HPA...A CLOSED HIGH
OVER WESTERN ECUADOR ANCHORS A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
PACIFIC...WITH AXIS SOUTH ALONG 80W TO 20S. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS RONDONIA-AMAZONAS IN
BRASIL. THIS TROUGH...ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...CONTINUES TO ENHANCE
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS AMAZONAS-PARA IN BRASIL. TRADE WIND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHEAST BRASIL FAVORS LIGHT SHALLOW
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF 38W.

AT 250 HPA...THE SOUTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 47S
85W...ALONG 53S 79W...51S 70W...EXITING AT 45S 67W. IT REFORMS AT
45S 55W...ALONG 49S 41W...48S 28W...EXITING AT 44S 24W. THE
NORTHERN POLAR LIES ALONG 35S 120W...A 177KT MAXIMUM AT 35S
110W...34S 98W...A 144KT MAXIMUM AT 35S 90W...41S 82W...44S
75W...39S 66W...38S 58W...42S 49W...EXITING AT 44S 38W. THE
SUBTROPICAL JET HAS A FINGER BETWEEN 19S 76W AND 17S 72W. IT
REFORMS AT 13S 46W...ALONG 17S 39W...19S 30W...20S 21W...EXITING
AT 19S 15W.

AT 500 HPA...BROAD TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC...ENVELOPING AREA BETWEEN 105W-70W AND TO
THE SOUTH OF 30S. THE TROUGH CENTERS ON A CLOSED LOW NEAR 56S
100W. AS IT PRESSES AGAINST A SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST THIS IS
FOCUSING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
CHILE. SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS ON THE NORTHERN STREAM REVOLVE
AROUND THIS TROUGH...WITH ONE ALONG 92W/93W TO 28S...WHILE ANOTHER
IS PULLING ACROSS LA PAMPA TO THE BUENOS PROVINCE IN ARGENTINA.
THE LATTER SUSTAINS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
BRASIL-URUGUAY-MESOPOTAMIA VALLEY IN ARGENTINA. A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS BETWEEN 55W-30W AND TO THE NORTH OF 50S.
A TROUGH TO THE EAST EXTENDS BETWEEN 30W-10W AND TO THE SOUTH OF
20S.

AT LOW LEVELS...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PACIFIC THAT CENTERS ON AN OCCLUDED 974 HPA LOW AT 56S
100W. A POLAR FRONT TO THE NORTH REVOLVES AROUND THIS AXIS AS IT
EXTENDS FROM AN OCCLUDED 966 HPA LOW AT 45S 93W...A 970 HPA LOW AT
48S 86W...42S 82W...38S 84W...A 1006 HPA LOW AT 36S 87W...31S
98W...AND 31S 111W. FARTHER EAST...AN OCCLUDED 990 HPA LOW AT 57S
50W EXTENDS A FRONT ALONG A 994 HPA LOW AT 59S 44W...53S 38W...49S
40W...45S 50W...A 1010 HPA LOW AT 43S 59W...BUENOS AIRES ARGENTINA
TO MENDOZA. SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
OVER URUGUAY-ENTRE RIOS ARGENTINA. A RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC
CENTERS ON A 1037 HPA HIGH AT 39S 36W. AN OLD FRONT TO THE EAST
EXTENDS ALONG A 1014 HPA LOW AT 29S 17W...23S 22W...21S 27W...TO
ESPIRITO SANTO...WHERE IT SUSTAINS SCATTERED CONVECTION.

FERNANDES...INMET (BRASIL)
JALFIN...SMN (ARGENTINA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

$$






000
FXSA20 KWBC 301324
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
924 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM 29 JULY 00UTC): AT 200 HPA...A CLOSED HIGH
OVER WESTERN ECUADOR ANCHORS A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
PACIFIC...WITH AXIS SOUTH ALONG 80W TO 20S. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS RONDONIA-AMAZONAS IN
BRASIL. THIS TROUGH...ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...CONTINUES TO ENHANCE
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS AMAZONAS-PARA IN BRASIL. TRADE WIND
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHEAST BRASIL FAVORS LIGHT SHALLOW
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF 38W.

AT 250 HPA...THE SOUTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 47S
85W...ALONG 53S 79W...51S 70W...EXITING AT 45S 67W. IT REFORMS AT
45S 55W...ALONG 49S 41W...48S 28W...EXITING AT 44S 24W. THE
NORTHERN POLAR LIES ALONG 35S 120W...A 177KT MAXIMUM AT 35S
110W...34S 98W...A 144KT MAXIMUM AT 35S 90W...41S 82W...44S
75W...39S 66W...38S 58W...42S 49W...EXITING AT 44S 38W. THE
SUBTROPICAL JET HAS A FINGER BETWEEN 19S 76W AND 17S 72W. IT
REFORMS AT 13S 46W...ALONG 17S 39W...19S 30W...20S 21W...EXITING
AT 19S 15W.

AT 500 HPA...BROAD TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC...ENVELOPING AREA BETWEEN 105W-70W AND TO
THE SOUTH OF 30S. THE TROUGH CENTERS ON A CLOSED LOW NEAR 56S
100W. AS IT PRESSES AGAINST A SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO THE EAST THIS IS
FOCUSING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
CHILE. SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS ON THE NORTHERN STREAM REVOLVE
AROUND THIS TROUGH...WITH ONE ALONG 92W/93W TO 28S...WHILE ANOTHER
IS PULLING ACROSS LA PAMPA TO THE BUENOS PROVINCE IN ARGENTINA.
THE LATTER SUSTAINS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
BRASIL-URUGUAY-MESOPOTAMIA VALLEY IN ARGENTINA. A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS BETWEEN 55W-30W AND TO THE NORTH OF 50S.
A TROUGH TO THE EAST EXTENDS BETWEEN 30W-10W AND TO THE SOUTH OF
20S.

AT LOW LEVELS...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PACIFIC THAT CENTERS ON AN OCCLUDED 974 HPA LOW AT 56S
100W. A POLAR FRONT TO THE NORTH REVOLVES AROUND THIS AXIS AS IT
EXTENDS FROM AN OCCLUDED 966 HPA LOW AT 45S 93W...A 970 HPA LOW AT
48S 86W...42S 82W...38S 84W...A 1006 HPA LOW AT 36S 87W...31S
98W...AND 31S 111W. FARTHER EAST...AN OCCLUDED 990 HPA LOW AT 57S
50W EXTENDS A FRONT ALONG A 994 HPA LOW AT 59S 44W...53S 38W...49S
40W...45S 50W...A 1010 HPA LOW AT 43S 59W...BUENOS AIRES ARGENTINA
TO MENDOZA. SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
OVER URUGUAY-ENTRE RIOS ARGENTINA. A RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC
CENTERS ON A 1037 HPA HIGH AT 39S 36W. AN OLD FRONT TO THE EAST
EXTENDS ALONG A 1014 HPA LOW AT 29S 17W...23S 22W...21S 27W...TO
ESPIRITO SANTO...WHERE IT SUSTAINS SCATTERED CONVECTION.

FERNANDES...INMET (BRASIL)
JALFIN...SMN (ARGENTINA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 301120
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
719 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. TUTT LOW TO
THE NORTH NOW CENTERS NEAR 25N 66W...ANCHORING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AS IT EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH ALOFT
SUSTAINS A STRONG MID LEVEL REFLECTION...AND AS A RESULT IT IS
INDUCING A SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. THE
INDUCED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH ALONG 62W/63W TO 22N. SATELLITE
DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A PLUME OF DEEP ITCZ MOISTURE TRAILING
THIS WAVE...WITH MOISTURE CONTENT PEAKING AROUND 50MM. LOWER
AMOUNTS EXTEND ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES-PUERTO RICO...PEAKING
AROUND 30-35MM. THIS WOULD BE  ENOUGH TO FUEL SOME CONVECTION
ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
ACTIVE...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS THE INDUCED
TROUGH PULLS ACROSS PUERTO RICO-MONA PASSAGE AND PWAT INCREASES TO
40-45MM. IN RESPONSE TO INFLOW OF DEEPER MOISTURE...THE GFS AND
UKMET BOTH FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLES-PUERTO RICO...WITH BOTH SHOWING RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP TROUGH TO THE NORTH WE WOULD LIKELY
SEE MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO BETWEEN
MANATI-AGUADILLA/MAYAGUEZ.

UPPER PATTERN IS TO THEN EVOLVE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...WITH TUTT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS TO RETROGRESS AS THE
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST. THIS IS TO GENERALLY
FAVOR AN UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN AS IT ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AT LOW LEVELS...NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALONG THE ATLANTIC ITCZ NEAR 44W. THE METEOSAT RGB
PRODUCT SHOWS A DUST CLOUD NORTH OF THIS CENTER...WITH POSSIBLE
ENTRAINMENT INTO THE EVOLVING CIRCULATION. THE NHC EXPECTS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM MIGRATES WEST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
POSSIBILITY OF THIS SYSTEM REACHING THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HEAVY
RAINS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON ITS FINAL TRAJECTORY.

FIGUEROA...MARN (EL SALVADOR)
VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 301120
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
719 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. TUTT LOW TO
THE NORTH NOW CENTERS NEAR 25N 66W...ANCHORING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AS IT EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH ALOFT
SUSTAINS A STRONG MID LEVEL REFLECTION...AND AS A RESULT IT IS
INDUCING A SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. THE
INDUCED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH ALONG 62W/63W TO 22N. SATELLITE
DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A PLUME OF DEEP ITCZ MOISTURE TRAILING
THIS WAVE...WITH MOISTURE CONTENT PEAKING AROUND 50MM. LOWER
AMOUNTS EXTEND ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES-PUERTO RICO...PEAKING
AROUND 30-35MM. THIS WOULD BE  ENOUGH TO FUEL SOME CONVECTION
ACROSS PUERTO RICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
ACTIVE...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS THE INDUCED
TROUGH PULLS ACROSS PUERTO RICO-MONA PASSAGE AND PWAT INCREASES TO
40-45MM. IN RESPONSE TO INFLOW OF DEEPER MOISTURE...THE GFS AND
UKMET BOTH FORECAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLES-PUERTO RICO...WITH BOTH SHOWING RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP TROUGH TO THE NORTH WE WOULD LIKELY
SEE MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO BETWEEN
MANATI-AGUADILLA/MAYAGUEZ.

UPPER PATTERN IS TO THEN EVOLVE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...WITH TUTT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS TO RETROGRESS AS THE
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST. THIS IS TO GENERALLY
FAVOR AN UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN AS IT ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AT LOW LEVELS...NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALONG THE ATLANTIC ITCZ NEAR 44W. THE METEOSAT RGB
PRODUCT SHOWS A DUST CLOUD NORTH OF THIS CENTER...WITH POSSIBLE
ENTRAINMENT INTO THE EVOLVING CIRCULATION. THE NHC EXPECTS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM MIGRATES WEST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
POSSIBILITY OF THIS SYSTEM REACHING THE FORECAST AREA...WITH HEAVY
RAINS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON ITS FINAL TRAJECTORY.

FIGUEROA...MARN (EL SALVADOR)
VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







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