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000
FXCA20 KWBC 041041
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
641 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM SEP
04/06UTC: TUTT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO VENEZUELA
WHILE CENTERING ON A CLOSED LOW OVER PUERTO RICO. BEST DIVERGENCE
WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLES...WHERE IT FAVORS
WIDELY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AT LOW LEVELS...LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE TO
THE EAST NOW EXTENDS ALONG 51W/52W.

AT UPPER LEVELS...BUILDING CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS TO
DISPLACE THE TUTT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH CLOSED LOW TO THEN
LIFT AROUND THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE. AS THE TROUGH
RELOCATES...UPPER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH CAP INVERSION TO LIFT
TO 650-700 HPA LATER TODAY...AND ABOVE 600 HPA ON SUNDAY-MONDAY
MORNING. BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH CAP TO QUICKLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY MORNING.

AT LOW LEVELS...EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO PEAK AT 05-10KT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS TO ALLOW FOR SEA/LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO
ESTABLISH...AND AS UPPER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE
THIS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS CENTRAL-WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SAINT CROIX. MAXIMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS IS LIKELY TO PEAK AROUND 1-2 INCHES. THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS TROPICAL WAVE PULLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
LIKELY TO FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT ENTERS THE
VI/EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE MORNING. BUT AS IT PULLS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO DURING MAX HEATING... THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH MAXIMA TO PEAK AT
3-5 INCHES.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 041041
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
641 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM SEP
04/06UTC: TUTT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO VENEZUELA
WHILE CENTERING ON A CLOSED LOW OVER PUERTO RICO. BEST DIVERGENCE
WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLES...WHERE IT FAVORS
WIDELY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AT LOW LEVELS...LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE TO
THE EAST NOW EXTENDS ALONG 51W/52W.

AT UPPER LEVELS...BUILDING CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS TO
DISPLACE THE TUTT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH CLOSED LOW TO THEN
LIFT AROUND THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE. AS THE TROUGH
RELOCATES...UPPER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH CAP INVERSION TO LIFT
TO 650-700 HPA LATER TODAY...AND ABOVE 600 HPA ON SUNDAY-MONDAY
MORNING. BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH CAP TO QUICKLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY MORNING.

AT LOW LEVELS...EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO PEAK AT 05-10KT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS TO ALLOW FOR SEA/LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO
ESTABLISH...AND AS UPPER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE
THIS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS CENTRAL-WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SAINT CROIX. MAXIMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS IS LIKELY TO PEAK AROUND 1-2 INCHES. THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS TROPICAL WAVE PULLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
LIKELY TO FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT ENTERS THE
VI/EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE MORNING. BUT AS IT PULLS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO DURING MAX HEATING... THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH MAXIMA TO PEAK AT
3-5 INCHES.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 041041
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
641 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM SEP
04/06UTC: TUTT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO VENEZUELA
WHILE CENTERING ON A CLOSED LOW OVER PUERTO RICO. BEST DIVERGENCE
WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLES...WHERE IT FAVORS
WIDELY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AT LOW LEVELS...LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE TO
THE EAST NOW EXTENDS ALONG 51W/52W.

AT UPPER LEVELS...BUILDING CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS TO
DISPLACE THE TUTT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH CLOSED LOW TO THEN
LIFT AROUND THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE. AS THE TROUGH
RELOCATES...UPPER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH CAP INVERSION TO LIFT
TO 650-700 HPA LATER TODAY...AND ABOVE 600 HPA ON SUNDAY-MONDAY
MORNING. BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH CAP TO QUICKLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY MORNING.

AT LOW LEVELS...EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO PEAK AT 05-10KT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS TO ALLOW FOR SEA/LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO
ESTABLISH...AND AS UPPER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE
THIS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS CENTRAL-WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SAINT CROIX. MAXIMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS IS LIKELY TO PEAK AROUND 1-2 INCHES. THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS TROPICAL WAVE PULLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
LIKELY TO FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT ENTERS THE
VI/EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE MORNING. BUT AS IT PULLS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO DURING MAX HEATING... THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH MAXIMA TO PEAK AT
3-5 INCHES.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 041041
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
641 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM SEP
04/06UTC: TUTT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO VENEZUELA
WHILE CENTERING ON A CLOSED LOW OVER PUERTO RICO. BEST DIVERGENCE
WITH THIS FEATURE REMAINS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLES...WHERE IT FAVORS
WIDELY ISOLATED CONVECTION. AT LOW LEVELS...LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE TO
THE EAST NOW EXTENDS ALONG 51W/52W.

AT UPPER LEVELS...BUILDING CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS TO
DISPLACE THE TUTT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH CLOSED LOW TO THEN
LIFT AROUND THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE. AS THE TROUGH
RELOCATES...UPPER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH CAP INVERSION TO LIFT
TO 650-700 HPA LATER TODAY...AND ABOVE 600 HPA ON SUNDAY-MONDAY
MORNING. BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH CAP TO QUICKLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING/TUESDAY MORNING.

AT LOW LEVELS...EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO PEAK AT 05-10KT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS TO ALLOW FOR SEA/LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO
ESTABLISH...AND AS UPPER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE
THIS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS CENTRAL-WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF SAINT CROIX. MAXIMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS IS LIKELY TO PEAK AROUND 1-2 INCHES. THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS TROPICAL WAVE PULLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
LIKELY TO FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT ENTERS THE
VI/EASTERN PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE MORNING. BUT AS IT PULLS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO DURING MAX HEATING... THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
FOR LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH MAXIMA TO PEAK AT
3-5 INCHES.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 040858
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
457 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 12Z FRI SEP 04 2015 - 12Z SUN SEP 06 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...EXCESSIVE RAIN POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SATURDAY...

...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE A TROUGH OVER THE
WEST AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE COUNTRY RATHER WARM AND DRY. NUMEROUS
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER - AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE WILL BE
COMMON, WITH ISOLATED 10 TO 15 DEGREES POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDWEST. A
NEARLY STATIONARY THERMAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS RELATIVELY STRONG FOR THIS EARLY IN
AUTUMN. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM
THE HUDSON BAY, THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MULTIPLE WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY TURN SEVERE
-- AS HIGHLIGHTED BY A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FOUR CORNERS, GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY
AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT IN.

WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT, A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND
A  PERSISTENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE, THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE PRIMED FOR HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND INTENSITY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING, WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MONTANA, THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY; IOWA, MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY.

CAMPBELL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 040858
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
457 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 12Z FRI SEP 04 2015 - 12Z SUN SEP 06 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...EXCESSIVE RAIN POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SATURDAY...

...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE A TROUGH OVER THE
WEST AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE COUNTRY RATHER WARM AND DRY. NUMEROUS
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER - AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE WILL BE
COMMON, WITH ISOLATED 10 TO 15 DEGREES POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDWEST. A
NEARLY STATIONARY THERMAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS RELATIVELY STRONG FOR THIS EARLY IN
AUTUMN. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM
THE HUDSON BAY, THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MULTIPLE WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY TURN SEVERE
-- AS HIGHLIGHTED BY A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FOUR CORNERS, GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY
AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT IN.

WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT, A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND
A  PERSISTENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE, THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE PRIMED FOR HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND INTENSITY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING, WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MONTANA, THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY; IOWA, MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY.

CAMPBELL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 040858
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
457 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 12Z FRI SEP 04 2015 - 12Z SUN SEP 06 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...EXCESSIVE RAIN POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF MONTANA AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON SATURDAY...

...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE A TROUGH OVER THE
WEST AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S. THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE COUNTRY RATHER WARM AND DRY. NUMEROUS
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER - AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE WILL BE
COMMON, WITH ISOLATED 10 TO 15 DEGREES POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDWEST. A
NEARLY STATIONARY THERMAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH AS A
COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS RELATIVELY STRONG FOR THIS EARLY IN
AUTUMN. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM
THE HUDSON BAY, THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MULTIPLE WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY TURN SEVERE
-- AS HIGHLIGHTED BY A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FOUR CORNERS, GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY
AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO ADVECT IN.

WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET SUPPORT, A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND
A  PERSISTENT FEED OF GULF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE, THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE PRIMED FOR HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND INTENSITY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING, WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MONTANA, THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY; IOWA, MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY.

CAMPBELL

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 040601
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 12Z MON SEP 07 2015 - 12Z FRI SEP 11 2015

...OVERVIEW...
AN ACTIVE HIGH-LATITUDE JET STREAM WILL PREVAIL AND DOMINATE THE
FLOW PATTERN FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. THIS
PROMINENT FLOW WILL GRADUALLY `SUPPLANT` THE PREVAILING
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONTINENT.
VERY UNUSUAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC---WITH 4
TROPICAL SYSTEMS  MEANDERING---IN ONE WAY...SHAPE OR FORM---
BETWEEN 20N AND 40N LATITUDE THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. SEVERAL OF
THESE SYSTEMS WILL ENTRAIN VARYING PORTIONS OF THEIR MOISTURE
PLUMES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND PROVIDE SOME SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. OVERALL...A 3/12Z ECENS/GEFS
AND DETERMINISTIC BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WORKS THROUGH THE
MID-POINT (9/12Z) OF THE `NEW DAY 5`---THEN A 70/30 BLEND OF THE
TWO MEANS THEREAFTER WILL KEEP GOOD CONTINUITY AND NOT PRODUCE
MUCH `CHANGE` FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST.

....UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
ASIDE FROM THE 3/12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE MODEL ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS IS DEPICTING A BROAD HEMISPHERIC TROUGH AND COOLER
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AT/ABOVE 55N LATITUDE FROM THE BERING SEA
TO HUDSON BAY AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
`SEPARATION` FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PATTERN PREVAILING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48---WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SERIES
OF MID-LEVEL LONG WAVES PROJECTED TO TRAVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND MIGRATE EASTWARD---STARTING IN THE SHORT RANGE AND
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN THE ABILITY OF THESE SHORTWAVES TO ENTRAIN SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. AND PRIMARILY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
AMERICA...THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TO TIME THE EVACUATION OF THE
WARM/HUMID AND DRY WEATHER NOW IN PLACE---AND THE LATITUDE WHERE A
COOLER...WETTER WEATHER PATTERN CAN `DISPLACE` THE STAGNANT TROUGH
INVOF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND `MOVE IT` DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD.

...MODEL PREFERENCES...
ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...THE NORTHERN
STREAM---WITH ORIGINS IN NORTHEAST SIBERIA WILL HAVE ENTRAINED
SOME OF `IGNACIO` (BETWEEN 5/12-7/12Z) PER CPHC/OPC
COORDINATION---WITH THE MOISTURE STREAM FOCUSING BETWEEN 55N-60N
LATITUDE THROUGH THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE 3/12Z
GEFS/ECENS AND THEIR DETERMINISTIC RUNS REASONABLY HANDLE THE
SYSTEM MIGRATION AND SENSIBLE WEATHER---WITH A BROAD WARM
ADVECTION SCENARIO FOR THE AK PANHANDLE/BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
BRUSHING ACROSS PUGET SOUND (DAY3-4). THIS WARM FRONT AND MODIFIED
NORTHEAST PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME APPEARS TO HAVE SOME `ROOM` TO
EXPAND DOWNSTREAM ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE TO THE GREAT
LAKES...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS (ALL 4 OF THEM...UK/EC/GFS/CMC)
ALL HAVE DIFFERENT `LOOKS` WITH THE FORWARD SPEED AND AREAL EXTENT
OF THE WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MOISTURE PLUME.

ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY KNOWN AS `KEVIN` WILL BE
MIGRATING NORTHWARD---AND PER THE NHC 4/03Z FORECAST
ADVISORY...THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO LOOK LIKE THE 3/12Z
CANADIAN AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. THAT SAID...A PORTION OF ITS
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE DAY
2-3 TROUGH...AND THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND MODEL
CHOICES WERE CARRIED FORWARD BY THE 3/12Z ECENS/GEFS MEANS. NOT
SURE THE DETAILS OF THE 3/12Z GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS (AS
PREFECT PROGS) CAPTURE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE MID-LATITUDE
AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY EXCHANGE BETWEEN 30N-40N ALONG
125W---AT/BEYOND 9/12Z.

CAUGHT IN THE `CROSSFIRE` WITH THE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE
PACIFIC...IS THE QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LODGED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE DECAYING STATIONARY FRONTAL
DRAPE ALONG 30N FROM THE MS DELTA EASTWARD TO THE FIRST COAST OF
FLORIDA. THE PREVAILING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH---
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM/HUMID EARLY-SEPTEMBER WEATHER IN THE
EAST---WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK DOWN---WITH A SLOWER-MOVING FRONTAL
PROGRESSION. THE 3/12Z ECENS/GEFS MEANS GAVE THE IMPRESSION THAT
THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADES VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH TIME. BUT THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A
PERSISTENT-TYPE FORECAST BENEATH THE RIDGE (IN THE LOWER LAYERS)
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AND ALOFT IN THE WESTERN GULF---LOOKS FAR
MORE DEPENDENT UPON WHAT IMPACT THE SUBTROPICAL JET-LET OVER
MEXICO AND MOISTURE PLUME FROM `KEVIN` HAVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE MOISTURE TRANSLATION DOWNSTREAM OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVERALL...THE 3/12Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WOULD
BE THE FASTER/STRONGER SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER
MS VALLEY AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FRONT VERSUS THE 3/12Z GFS. AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS TO
BE A TOSS UP...IE  WHICH SOLUTION WILL PREVAIL AND WHETHER THE
FRONT CAN ACTUALLY MAKE A STRONG PUSH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
THE DAY6-7 PERIOD.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE DAY 3-6 FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK APPEAR
TO BE THE PRIMARY REGIONS FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM `KEVIN` WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON
THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND FOUR CORNERS/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES---PRIOR TO DAY 5---BEFORE THE MOISTURE TRANSLATES
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE OZARKS AND MID-MS VALLEY.

VOJTESAK



$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 040601
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 12Z MON SEP 07 2015 - 12Z FRI SEP 11 2015

...OVERVIEW...
AN ACTIVE HIGH-LATITUDE JET STREAM WILL PREVAIL AND DOMINATE THE
FLOW PATTERN FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. THIS
PROMINENT FLOW WILL GRADUALLY `SUPPLANT` THE PREVAILING
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONTINENT.
VERY UNUSUAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC---WITH 4
TROPICAL SYSTEMS  MEANDERING---IN ONE WAY...SHAPE OR FORM---
BETWEEN 20N AND 40N LATITUDE THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. SEVERAL OF
THESE SYSTEMS WILL ENTRAIN VARYING PORTIONS OF THEIR MOISTURE
PLUMES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND PROVIDE SOME SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. OVERALL...A 3/12Z ECENS/GEFS
AND DETERMINISTIC BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WORKS THROUGH THE
MID-POINT (9/12Z) OF THE `NEW DAY 5`---THEN A 70/30 BLEND OF THE
TWO MEANS THEREAFTER WILL KEEP GOOD CONTINUITY AND NOT PRODUCE
MUCH `CHANGE` FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST.

....UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
ASIDE FROM THE 3/12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE MODEL ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS IS DEPICTING A BROAD HEMISPHERIC TROUGH AND COOLER
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AT/ABOVE 55N LATITUDE FROM THE BERING SEA
TO HUDSON BAY AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
`SEPARATION` FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PATTERN PREVAILING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48---WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SERIES
OF MID-LEVEL LONG WAVES PROJECTED TO TRAVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND MIGRATE EASTWARD---STARTING IN THE SHORT RANGE AND
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN THE ABILITY OF THESE SHORTWAVES TO ENTRAIN SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. AND PRIMARILY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
AMERICA...THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TO TIME THE EVACUATION OF THE
WARM/HUMID AND DRY WEATHER NOW IN PLACE---AND THE LATITUDE WHERE A
COOLER...WETTER WEATHER PATTERN CAN `DISPLACE` THE STAGNANT TROUGH
INVOF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND `MOVE IT` DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD.

...MODEL PREFERENCES...
ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...THE NORTHERN
STREAM---WITH ORIGINS IN NORTHEAST SIBERIA WILL HAVE ENTRAINED
SOME OF `IGNACIO` (BETWEEN 5/12-7/12Z) PER CPHC/OPC
COORDINATION---WITH THE MOISTURE STREAM FOCUSING BETWEEN 55N-60N
LATITUDE THROUGH THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE 3/12Z
GEFS/ECENS AND THEIR DETERMINISTIC RUNS REASONABLY HANDLE THE
SYSTEM MIGRATION AND SENSIBLE WEATHER---WITH A BROAD WARM
ADVECTION SCENARIO FOR THE AK PANHANDLE/BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
BRUSHING ACROSS PUGET SOUND (DAY3-4). THIS WARM FRONT AND MODIFIED
NORTHEAST PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME APPEARS TO HAVE SOME `ROOM` TO
EXPAND DOWNSTREAM ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE TO THE GREAT
LAKES...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS (ALL 4 OF THEM...UK/EC/GFS/CMC)
ALL HAVE DIFFERENT `LOOKS` WITH THE FORWARD SPEED AND AREAL EXTENT
OF THE WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MOISTURE PLUME.

ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY KNOWN AS `KEVIN` WILL BE
MIGRATING NORTHWARD---AND PER THE NHC 4/03Z FORECAST
ADVISORY...THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO LOOK LIKE THE 3/12Z
CANADIAN AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. THAT SAID...A PORTION OF ITS
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE DAY
2-3 TROUGH...AND THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND MODEL
CHOICES WERE CARRIED FORWARD BY THE 3/12Z ECENS/GEFS MEANS. NOT
SURE THE DETAILS OF THE 3/12Z GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS (AS
PREFECT PROGS) CAPTURE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE MID-LATITUDE
AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY EXCHANGE BETWEEN 30N-40N ALONG
125W---AT/BEYOND 9/12Z.

CAUGHT IN THE `CROSSFIRE` WITH THE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE
PACIFIC...IS THE QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LODGED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE DECAYING STATIONARY FRONTAL
DRAPE ALONG 30N FROM THE MS DELTA EASTWARD TO THE FIRST COAST OF
FLORIDA. THE PREVAILING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH---
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM/HUMID EARLY-SEPTEMBER WEATHER IN THE
EAST---WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK DOWN---WITH A SLOWER-MOVING FRONTAL
PROGRESSION. THE 3/12Z ECENS/GEFS MEANS GAVE THE IMPRESSION THAT
THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADES VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH TIME. BUT THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A
PERSISTENT-TYPE FORECAST BENEATH THE RIDGE (IN THE LOWER LAYERS)
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AND ALOFT IN THE WESTERN GULF---LOOKS FAR
MORE DEPENDENT UPON WHAT IMPACT THE SUBTROPICAL JET-LET OVER
MEXICO AND MOISTURE PLUME FROM `KEVIN` HAVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE MOISTURE TRANSLATION DOWNSTREAM OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVERALL...THE 3/12Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WOULD
BE THE FASTER/STRONGER SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER
MS VALLEY AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FRONT VERSUS THE 3/12Z GFS. AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS TO
BE A TOSS UP...IE  WHICH SOLUTION WILL PREVAIL AND WHETHER THE
FRONT CAN ACTUALLY MAKE A STRONG PUSH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
THE DAY6-7 PERIOD.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE DAY 3-6 FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK APPEAR
TO BE THE PRIMARY REGIONS FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM `KEVIN` WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON
THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND FOUR CORNERS/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES---PRIOR TO DAY 5---BEFORE THE MOISTURE TRANSLATES
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE OZARKS AND MID-MS VALLEY.

VOJTESAK



$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 040601
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 12Z MON SEP 07 2015 - 12Z FRI SEP 11 2015

...OVERVIEW...
AN ACTIVE HIGH-LATITUDE JET STREAM WILL PREVAIL AND DOMINATE THE
FLOW PATTERN FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE. THIS
PROMINENT FLOW WILL GRADUALLY `SUPPLANT` THE PREVAILING
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONTINENT.
VERY UNUSUAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC---WITH 4
TROPICAL SYSTEMS  MEANDERING---IN ONE WAY...SHAPE OR FORM---
BETWEEN 20N AND 40N LATITUDE THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. SEVERAL OF
THESE SYSTEMS WILL ENTRAIN VARYING PORTIONS OF THEIR MOISTURE
PLUMES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND PROVIDE SOME SENSIBLE
WEATHER CHANGES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. OVERALL...A 3/12Z ECENS/GEFS
AND DETERMINISTIC BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF WORKS THROUGH THE
MID-POINT (9/12Z) OF THE `NEW DAY 5`---THEN A 70/30 BLEND OF THE
TWO MEANS THEREAFTER WILL KEEP GOOD CONTINUITY AND NOT PRODUCE
MUCH `CHANGE` FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST.

....UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
ASIDE FROM THE 3/12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE MODEL ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS IS DEPICTING A BROAD HEMISPHERIC TROUGH AND COOLER
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AT/ABOVE 55N LATITUDE FROM THE BERING SEA
TO HUDSON BAY AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
`SEPARATION` FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PATTERN PREVAILING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48---WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SERIES
OF MID-LEVEL LONG WAVES PROJECTED TO TRAVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN
STREAM AND MIGRATE EASTWARD---STARTING IN THE SHORT RANGE AND
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN THE ABILITY OF THESE SHORTWAVES TO ENTRAIN SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. AND PRIMARILY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
AMERICA...THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TO TIME THE EVACUATION OF THE
WARM/HUMID AND DRY WEATHER NOW IN PLACE---AND THE LATITUDE WHERE A
COOLER...WETTER WEATHER PATTERN CAN `DISPLACE` THE STAGNANT TROUGH
INVOF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND `MOVE IT` DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD.

...MODEL PREFERENCES...
ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...THE NORTHERN
STREAM---WITH ORIGINS IN NORTHEAST SIBERIA WILL HAVE ENTRAINED
SOME OF `IGNACIO` (BETWEEN 5/12-7/12Z) PER CPHC/OPC
COORDINATION---WITH THE MOISTURE STREAM FOCUSING BETWEEN 55N-60N
LATITUDE THROUGH THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE 3/12Z
GEFS/ECENS AND THEIR DETERMINISTIC RUNS REASONABLY HANDLE THE
SYSTEM MIGRATION AND SENSIBLE WEATHER---WITH A BROAD WARM
ADVECTION SCENARIO FOR THE AK PANHANDLE/BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
BRUSHING ACROSS PUGET SOUND (DAY3-4). THIS WARM FRONT AND MODIFIED
NORTHEAST PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME APPEARS TO HAVE SOME `ROOM` TO
EXPAND DOWNSTREAM ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE TO THE GREAT
LAKES...BUT THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS (ALL 4 OF THEM...UK/EC/GFS/CMC)
ALL HAVE DIFFERENT `LOOKS` WITH THE FORWARD SPEED AND AREAL EXTENT
OF THE WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MOISTURE PLUME.

ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY KNOWN AS `KEVIN` WILL BE
MIGRATING NORTHWARD---AND PER THE NHC 4/03Z FORECAST
ADVISORY...THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO LOOK LIKE THE 3/12Z
CANADIAN AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. THAT SAID...A PORTION OF ITS
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE DAY
2-3 TROUGH...AND THE PREVIOUS WPC FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND MODEL
CHOICES WERE CARRIED FORWARD BY THE 3/12Z ECENS/GEFS MEANS. NOT
SURE THE DETAILS OF THE 3/12Z GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS (AS
PREFECT PROGS) CAPTURE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE MID-LATITUDE
AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/ENERGY EXCHANGE BETWEEN 30N-40N ALONG
125W---AT/BEYOND 9/12Z.

CAUGHT IN THE `CROSSFIRE` WITH THE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE
PACIFIC...IS THE QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LODGED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE DECAYING STATIONARY FRONTAL
DRAPE ALONG 30N FROM THE MS DELTA EASTWARD TO THE FIRST COAST OF
FLORIDA. THE PREVAILING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH---
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARM/HUMID EARLY-SEPTEMBER WEATHER IN THE
EAST---WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK DOWN---WITH A SLOWER-MOVING FRONTAL
PROGRESSION. THE 3/12Z ECENS/GEFS MEANS GAVE THE IMPRESSION THAT
THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADES VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH TIME. BUT THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE MORE OF A
PERSISTENT-TYPE FORECAST BENEATH THE RIDGE (IN THE LOWER LAYERS)
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AND ALOFT IN THE WESTERN GULF---LOOKS FAR
MORE DEPENDENT UPON WHAT IMPACT THE SUBTROPICAL JET-LET OVER
MEXICO AND MOISTURE PLUME FROM `KEVIN` HAVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE MOISTURE TRANSLATION DOWNSTREAM OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVERALL...THE 3/12Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WOULD
BE THE FASTER/STRONGER SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER
MS VALLEY AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL FRONT VERSUS THE 3/12Z GFS. AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS TO
BE A TOSS UP...IE  WHICH SOLUTION WILL PREVAIL AND WHETHER THE
FRONT CAN ACTUALLY MAKE A STRONG PUSH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
THE DAY6-7 PERIOD.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE DAY 3-6 FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK APPEAR
TO BE THE PRIMARY REGIONS FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM `KEVIN` WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACTS ON
THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND FOUR CORNERS/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES---PRIOR TO DAY 5---BEFORE THE MOISTURE TRANSLATES
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE OZARKS AND MID-MS VALLEY.

VOJTESAK



$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 031937
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 00Z FRI SEP 04 2015 - 00Z SUN SEP 06 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY TONIGHT -- ALLOWING SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON
FRIDAY, THE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST MAY BECOME SEVERE -- AS HIGHLIGHTED BY A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY FARTHER WEST, ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
LITTLE ON SATURDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN FROM MUCH OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD
TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE THE MOST NUMEROUS IN AREAS OF TERRAIN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES AND GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONT
DISSIPATES ON SATURDAY. NORTH OF THIS FRONT, A DRIER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS.

FINALLY, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY, AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE MID
AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER MOST
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST, TEMPERATURES MAY RISE TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
THE MID-ATLANTIC MAY SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY AS
AIR ORIGINATING OVER THE COOL WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC MAY BE 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.


RYAN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 031937
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 00Z FRI SEP 04 2015 - 00Z SUN SEP 06 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY TONIGHT -- ALLOWING SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON
FRIDAY, THE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST MAY BECOME SEVERE -- AS HIGHLIGHTED BY A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY FARTHER WEST, ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
LITTLE ON SATURDAY, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN FROM MUCH OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD
TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE THE MOST NUMEROUS IN AREAS OF TERRAIN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES AND GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONT
DISSIPATES ON SATURDAY. NORTH OF THIS FRONT, A DRIER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS.

FINALLY, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT ACROSS
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY, AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE MID
AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER MOST
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST, TEMPERATURES MAY RISE TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
THE MID-ATLANTIC MAY SEE SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY AS
AIR ORIGINATING OVER THE COOL WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC MAY BE 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.


RYAN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS06 KWBC 031902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU SEPTEMBER 03 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 09 - 13 2015

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA FLOW
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FROM THE
GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS INDICATE TROUGHS OVER THE BERING SEA OR WESTERN
ALASKA. A LOW AMPLITUDE CIRCULATION PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS
WITH A BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ANTICIPATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE NATION. A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN CONUS
WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE PREDICTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE ENSEMBLE
SPAGHETTI CHARTS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN
MOSTLY RELATED TO TIMING DIFFERENCES OF SHORT WAVES IN THE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. THE SPREAD IS ALSO PARTIALLY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE PACIFIC RECURVING AND
ENTERING THE MID-LATITUDES DURING THE PERIOD. TODAY`S HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS VERY
SMALL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. HEIGHTS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE SLIGHLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, FLORIDA, AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA, AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO WEAK ANOMALOUS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE
RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. A WEAKNESS IN THIS
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CREATES HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
REGION. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE BERING SEA
AND WESTERN ALASKA. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS AND ABOVE NORMAL SSTS CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN ADJACENT WATERS.

THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DUE TO THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW EXPECCTED OVER THESE
REGIONS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  THE
TROUGH PREDICTED OVER WESTERN ALASKA TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF
TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, SMALL HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND MODERATE
SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 11 - 17 2015

TODAY`S WEEK-TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY EXHIBIT LARGE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN, ALTHOUGH THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. ELSEWHERE, TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG ENEMBLE MEMBERS LEADS TO RELATIVLY LARGE SPREAD. OVERALL THE
EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN FOR WEEK-2 IS NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT FROM THAT
PREDICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE BROAD TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AGREEMENT IS SOMEWHAT BETTER OVER ALASKA, AS MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE
IN FORECASTING A TROUGH NEAR THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND A RIDGE NEAR THE
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. THE BLENDED HEIGHT CHART INDICATES NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS (EXCEPT FOR THE
NOTHEAST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA) AND ALASKA, WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE.

THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK-2 ARE NOT
SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT FROM THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS IS
NOT SURPRISING GIVEN HOW LITTLE THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
CHANGE BETWEEN THE TWO FORECAST PERIODS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 15% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 10, 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF
YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
SEPTEMBER 17

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20040917 - 19950816 - 19600831 - 19970914 - 19520907


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19970914 - 20040916 - 19950817 - 19520909 - 19600902


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 09 - 13 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      N    B
W MONTANA   N    N     E MONTANA   B    N     WYOMING     B    B
UTAH        N    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    N
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    B    N
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  B    N
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 11 - 17 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   B    B     E MONTANA   B    N     WYOMING     B    B
UTAH        N    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    B    B
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    B    N
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    N
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  B    N
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$






000
FXUS06 KWBC 031902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU SEPTEMBER 03 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 09 - 13 2015

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA FLOW
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FROM THE
GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS INDICATE TROUGHS OVER THE BERING SEA OR WESTERN
ALASKA. A LOW AMPLITUDE CIRCULATION PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS
WITH A BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ANTICIPATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE NATION. A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN CONUS
WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE PREDICTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE ENSEMBLE
SPAGHETTI CHARTS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN
MOSTLY RELATED TO TIMING DIFFERENCES OF SHORT WAVES IN THE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. THE SPREAD IS ALSO PARTIALLY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE PACIFIC RECURVING AND
ENTERING THE MID-LATITUDES DURING THE PERIOD. TODAY`S HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS VERY
SMALL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. HEIGHTS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE SLIGHLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, FLORIDA, AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA, AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO WEAK ANOMALOUS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE
RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. A WEAKNESS IN THIS
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CREATES HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
REGION. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE BERING SEA
AND WESTERN ALASKA. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS AND ABOVE NORMAL SSTS CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN ADJACENT WATERS.

THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DUE TO THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW EXPECCTED OVER THESE
REGIONS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  THE
TROUGH PREDICTED OVER WESTERN ALASKA TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF
TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, SMALL HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND MODERATE
SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 11 - 17 2015

TODAY`S WEEK-TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY EXHIBIT LARGE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN, ALTHOUGH THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. ELSEWHERE, TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG ENEMBLE MEMBERS LEADS TO RELATIVLY LARGE SPREAD. OVERALL THE
EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN FOR WEEK-2 IS NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT FROM THAT
PREDICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE BROAD TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AGREEMENT IS SOMEWHAT BETTER OVER ALASKA, AS MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE
IN FORECASTING A TROUGH NEAR THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND A RIDGE NEAR THE
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. THE BLENDED HEIGHT CHART INDICATES NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS (EXCEPT FOR THE
NOTHEAST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA) AND ALASKA, WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE.

THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK-2 ARE NOT
SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT FROM THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS IS
NOT SURPRISING GIVEN HOW LITTLE THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
CHANGE BETWEEN THE TWO FORECAST PERIODS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 15% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 10, 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF
YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
SEPTEMBER 17

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20040917 - 19950816 - 19600831 - 19970914 - 19520907


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19970914 - 20040916 - 19950817 - 19520909 - 19600902


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 09 - 13 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      N    B
W MONTANA   N    N     E MONTANA   B    N     WYOMING     B    B
UTAH        N    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    N
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    B    N
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  B    N
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 11 - 17 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   B    B     E MONTANA   B    N     WYOMING     B    B
UTAH        N    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    B    B
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    B    N
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    N
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  B    N
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$






000
FXUS06 KWBC 031902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU SEPTEMBER 03 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 09 - 13 2015

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA FLOW
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FROM THE
GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS INDICATE TROUGHS OVER THE BERING SEA OR WESTERN
ALASKA. A LOW AMPLITUDE CIRCULATION PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS
WITH A BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ANTICIPATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE NATION. A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN CONUS
WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE PREDICTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE ENSEMBLE
SPAGHETTI CHARTS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN
MOSTLY RELATED TO TIMING DIFFERENCES OF SHORT WAVES IN THE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. THE SPREAD IS ALSO PARTIALLY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE PACIFIC RECURVING AND
ENTERING THE MID-LATITUDES DURING THE PERIOD. TODAY`S HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS VERY
SMALL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. HEIGHTS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE SLIGHLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, FLORIDA, AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA, AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO WEAK ANOMALOUS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE
RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. A WEAKNESS IN THIS
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CREATES HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
REGION. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE BERING SEA
AND WESTERN ALASKA. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS AND ABOVE NORMAL SSTS CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN ADJACENT WATERS.

THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS DUE TO THE BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW EXPECCTED OVER THESE
REGIONS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  THE
TROUGH PREDICTED OVER WESTERN ALASKA TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF
TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, SMALL HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND MODERATE
SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 11 - 17 2015

TODAY`S WEEK-TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY EXHIBIT LARGE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN, ALTHOUGH THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. ELSEWHERE, TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG ENEMBLE MEMBERS LEADS TO RELATIVLY LARGE SPREAD. OVERALL THE
EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN FOR WEEK-2 IS NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT FROM THAT
PREDICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE BROAD TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AGREEMENT IS SOMEWHAT BETTER OVER ALASKA, AS MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE
IN FORECASTING A TROUGH NEAR THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND A RIDGE NEAR THE
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. THE BLENDED HEIGHT CHART INDICATES NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS (EXCEPT FOR THE
NOTHEAST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA) AND ALASKA, WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
ARE ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE.

THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK-2 ARE NOT
SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT FROM THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS IS
NOT SURPRISING GIVEN HOW LITTLE THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
CHANGE BETWEEN THE TWO FORECAST PERIODS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 15% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 10, 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF
YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
SEPTEMBER 17

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20040917 - 19950816 - 19600831 - 19970914 - 19520907


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19970914 - 20040916 - 19950817 - 19520909 - 19600902


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 09 - 13 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      N    B
W MONTANA   N    N     E MONTANA   B    N     WYOMING     B    B
UTAH        N    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    N
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    B    N
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  B    N
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 11 - 17 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   B    B     E MONTANA   B    N     WYOMING     B    B
UTAH        N    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    B    B
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    B    N
NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    N
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  B    N
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$





000
FXCA20 KWBC 031825
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

AT 15 UTC TROPICAL STORM KEVIN CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 115.6W...WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 HPA.
THE STORM IS MOVING TO THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 05KT. SEE NHC
BULLETING FOR OFFICIAL FORECAST.

DISCUSSION FROM SEP 03/12 UTC: MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMAIN DOMINATES THE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MEXICO TO THE WESTERN USA. AT 250 HPA A HIGH NEAR COLIMA/NAYARIT
IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO IS TO INITIALLY ANCHOR THIS AXIS. THROUGH
MIDDAY ON SATURDAY THIS LIFTS TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE RIDGE IS
TO VENT DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL OVER
WESTERN MEXICO...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. TS KEVIN MEANDERS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
RIDGE...WITH THE NHC FORECASTING THIS STORM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO
A DEPRESSION EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING.

A WANING TUTT LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF BOUNDS THE EASTERN FRINGES
OF THIS RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE HOLDS IT IS TO STEER THIS FEATURE TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS MEXICO. THROUGH LATER TODAY THE WANING
LOW MOVES TO VERACRUZ/CENTRAL MEXICO...AND EARLY ON SATURDAY IT
PULLS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AT LOW
LEVELS...HEAT TROUGH OVER MEXICO WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INLAND. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH INFLOW OF MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY
TO FAVOR AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTION ON THE CENTRAL
STATES OF VERACRUZ-PUEBLA-MEXICO/DF AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES
OF COLIMA-NAYARIT-GUERRERO. THE COLD CORE UPPER TROUGH IS TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA TO LIKELY FAVOR
GENERATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ON FRIDAY
TO SATURDAY.

FARTHER EAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPANS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. AT 500 HPA THIS IS TO
ANCHOR ON A CLOSED HIGH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. AN AMPLIFYING POLAR
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC IS TO PRESS AGAINST
THIS RIDGE. THIS IS TO THEN INDUCE GRADUAL EROSION OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. EARLY IN THE CYCLE
THE BROAD RIDGE IS TO FAVOR A FAIRLY STRONG CAP INVERSION ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN
ISLES. BUT AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN/ERODE THE INVERSION CAP
IS TO SLOWLY LIFT ABOVE 700 HPA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER LAYER
INSTABILITY TO ESTABLISH AND GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE CYCLE ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.

A TUTT LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE CENTERS OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN/ NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS TO
STEER THIS LOW WEST ACROSS BELIZE INTO THE YUCATAN LATER ON
FRIDAY. BUT AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS THE WANING TUTT IS TO STALL OVER
THE YUCATAN. EARLY IN THE CYCLE...AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...THE LOW IS TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLES TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
OVER CUBA MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
ISLAND WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
THIS IS TO ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...WITH MOST ACTIVE OVER EL SALVADOR-SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ACROSS NORTHEAST NICARAGUA-NORTHERN HONDURAS TO
BELIZE/NORTHERN GUATEMALA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. AS THE LOW MEANDERS
WEST...FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO
BELIZE-GUATEMALA-YUCATAN AND NORTHWEST HONDURAS WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15XMM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

ANOTHER TUTT LOW TO THE EAST CENTERS NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLES. THIS
LOW EXTENDS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SOUTH TO CENTRAL/EASTERN
VENEZUELA. BUILDING CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS TO DISPLACE THIS LOW/TROUGH TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST EARLY ON SATURDAY. EARLY TODAY THE MEANDERING LOW
WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLES
TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM. ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY THIS IS TO BUILD WEST ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLES TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. OTHER ENHANCEMENT TO
THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED IN INTERACTION WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
TROUGH OVER VENEZUELA. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96        TYPE
46W     48W    51W    54W    58W    61W    64W    66W        TW
77W     79W    81W    83W    86W    89W    91W    93W        TW
86W     88W    91W    94W    96W    98W   100W   102W        TW
100W   101W   102W   103W   104W   106W   108W   110W        TW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NORTHERN FRENCH
GUIANA EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR COASTAL
CONVECTION WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM. OVER NORTHERN SURINAME-GUYANA THIS IS TO ALSO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
TO SATURDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN IT IS TO THEN TRIGGER
TRACE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W IS TO FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS JAMAICA WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM. MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA AND WESTERN COLOMBIA WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. OVER COSTA
RICA-NICARAGUA THIS IS TO THEN SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ON FRIDAY...WHILE OVER EL
SALVADOR/HONDURAS EXPECT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W...IN INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TUTT...WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR TO GUATEMALA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO THE WAVE IS TO THEN TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W IS TO INTERACT WITH MEANDERING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF-CENTRAL MEXICO. AS THE WAVE
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL-SOUTHWEST MEXICO IT IS TO FAVOR SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 031825
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

AT 15 UTC TROPICAL STORM KEVIN CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 115.6W...WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 HPA.
THE STORM IS MOVING TO THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 05KT. SEE NHC
BULLETING FOR OFFICIAL FORECAST.

DISCUSSION FROM SEP 03/12 UTC: MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMAIN DOMINATES THE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MEXICO TO THE WESTERN USA. AT 250 HPA A HIGH NEAR COLIMA/NAYARIT
IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO IS TO INITIALLY ANCHOR THIS AXIS. THROUGH
MIDDAY ON SATURDAY THIS LIFTS TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE RIDGE IS
TO VENT DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL OVER
WESTERN MEXICO...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. TS KEVIN MEANDERS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
RIDGE...WITH THE NHC FORECASTING THIS STORM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO
A DEPRESSION EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING.

A WANING TUTT LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF BOUNDS THE EASTERN FRINGES
OF THIS RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE HOLDS IT IS TO STEER THIS FEATURE TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS MEXICO. THROUGH LATER TODAY THE WANING
LOW MOVES TO VERACRUZ/CENTRAL MEXICO...AND EARLY ON SATURDAY IT
PULLS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AT LOW
LEVELS...HEAT TROUGH OVER MEXICO WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INLAND. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH INFLOW OF MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY
TO FAVOR AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTION ON THE CENTRAL
STATES OF VERACRUZ-PUEBLA-MEXICO/DF AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES
OF COLIMA-NAYARIT-GUERRERO. THE COLD CORE UPPER TROUGH IS TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA TO LIKELY FAVOR
GENERATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ON FRIDAY
TO SATURDAY.

FARTHER EAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPANS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. AT 500 HPA THIS IS TO
ANCHOR ON A CLOSED HIGH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. AN AMPLIFYING POLAR
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC IS TO PRESS AGAINST
THIS RIDGE. THIS IS TO THEN INDUCE GRADUAL EROSION OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. EARLY IN THE CYCLE
THE BROAD RIDGE IS TO FAVOR A FAIRLY STRONG CAP INVERSION ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN
ISLES. BUT AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN/ERODE THE INVERSION CAP
IS TO SLOWLY LIFT ABOVE 700 HPA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER LAYER
INSTABILITY TO ESTABLISH AND GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE CYCLE ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.

A TUTT LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE CENTERS OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN/ NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS TO
STEER THIS LOW WEST ACROSS BELIZE INTO THE YUCATAN LATER ON
FRIDAY. BUT AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS THE WANING TUTT IS TO STALL OVER
THE YUCATAN. EARLY IN THE CYCLE...AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...THE LOW IS TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLES TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
OVER CUBA MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
ISLAND WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
THIS IS TO ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...WITH MOST ACTIVE OVER EL SALVADOR-SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ACROSS NORTHEAST NICARAGUA-NORTHERN HONDURAS TO
BELIZE/NORTHERN GUATEMALA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. AS THE LOW MEANDERS
WEST...FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO
BELIZE-GUATEMALA-YUCATAN AND NORTHWEST HONDURAS WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15XMM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

ANOTHER TUTT LOW TO THE EAST CENTERS NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLES. THIS
LOW EXTENDS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SOUTH TO CENTRAL/EASTERN
VENEZUELA. BUILDING CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS TO DISPLACE THIS LOW/TROUGH TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST EARLY ON SATURDAY. EARLY TODAY THE MEANDERING LOW
WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLES
TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM. ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY THIS IS TO BUILD WEST ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLES TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. OTHER ENHANCEMENT TO
THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED IN INTERACTION WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
TROUGH OVER VENEZUELA. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96        TYPE
46W     48W    51W    54W    58W    61W    64W    66W        TW
77W     79W    81W    83W    86W    89W    91W    93W        TW
86W     88W    91W    94W    96W    98W   100W   102W        TW
100W   101W   102W   103W   104W   106W   108W   110W        TW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NORTHERN FRENCH
GUIANA EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR COASTAL
CONVECTION WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM. OVER NORTHERN SURINAME-GUYANA THIS IS TO ALSO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
TO SATURDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN IT IS TO THEN TRIGGER
TRACE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W IS TO FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS JAMAICA WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM. MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA AND WESTERN COLOMBIA WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. OVER COSTA
RICA-NICARAGUA THIS IS TO THEN SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ON FRIDAY...WHILE OVER EL
SALVADOR/HONDURAS EXPECT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W...IN INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TUTT...WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR TO GUATEMALA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO THE WAVE IS TO THEN TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W IS TO INTERACT WITH MEANDERING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF-CENTRAL MEXICO. AS THE WAVE
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL-SOUTHWEST MEXICO IT IS TO FAVOR SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 031825
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 PM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

AT 15 UTC TROPICAL STORM KEVIN CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 115.6W...WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 HPA.
THE STORM IS MOVING TO THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 05KT. SEE NHC
BULLETING FOR OFFICIAL FORECAST.

DISCUSSION FROM SEP 03/12 UTC: MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMAIN DOMINATES THE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
MEXICO TO THE WESTERN USA. AT 250 HPA A HIGH NEAR COLIMA/NAYARIT
IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO IS TO INITIALLY ANCHOR THIS AXIS. THROUGH
MIDDAY ON SATURDAY THIS LIFTS TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE RIDGE IS
TO VENT DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL OVER
WESTERN MEXICO...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. TS KEVIN MEANDERS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
RIDGE...WITH THE NHC FORECASTING THIS STORM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO
A DEPRESSION EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING.

A WANING TUTT LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF BOUNDS THE EASTERN FRINGES
OF THIS RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE HOLDS IT IS TO STEER THIS FEATURE TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS MEXICO. THROUGH LATER TODAY THE WANING
LOW MOVES TO VERACRUZ/CENTRAL MEXICO...AND EARLY ON SATURDAY IT
PULLS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AT LOW
LEVELS...HEAT TROUGH OVER MEXICO WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INLAND. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH INFLOW OF MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY
TO FAVOR AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTION ON THE CENTRAL
STATES OF VERACRUZ-PUEBLA-MEXICO/DF AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES
OF COLIMA-NAYARIT-GUERRERO. THE COLD CORE UPPER TROUGH IS TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA TO LIKELY FAVOR
GENERATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN
THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ON FRIDAY
TO SATURDAY.

FARTHER EAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SPANS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. AT 500 HPA THIS IS TO
ANCHOR ON A CLOSED HIGH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. AN AMPLIFYING POLAR
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC IS TO PRESS AGAINST
THIS RIDGE. THIS IS TO THEN INDUCE GRADUAL EROSION OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. EARLY IN THE CYCLE
THE BROAD RIDGE IS TO FAVOR A FAIRLY STRONG CAP INVERSION ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN
ISLES. BUT AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN/ERODE THE INVERSION CAP
IS TO SLOWLY LIFT ABOVE 700 HPA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER LAYER
INSTABILITY TO ESTABLISH AND GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE CYCLE ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.

A TUTT LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE CENTERS OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN/ NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS TO
STEER THIS LOW WEST ACROSS BELIZE INTO THE YUCATAN LATER ON
FRIDAY. BUT AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS THE WANING TUTT IS TO STALL OVER
THE YUCATAN. EARLY IN THE CYCLE...AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...THE LOW IS TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLES TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
OVER CUBA MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
ISLAND WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
THIS IS TO ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...WITH MOST ACTIVE OVER EL SALVADOR-SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ACROSS NORTHEAST NICARAGUA-NORTHERN HONDURAS TO
BELIZE/NORTHERN GUATEMALA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. AS THE LOW MEANDERS
WEST...FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO
BELIZE-GUATEMALA-YUCATAN AND NORTHWEST HONDURAS WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15XMM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

ANOTHER TUTT LOW TO THE EAST CENTERS NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLES. THIS
LOW EXTENDS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SOUTH TO CENTRAL/EASTERN
VENEZUELA. BUILDING CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS TO DISPLACE THIS LOW/TROUGH TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST EARLY ON SATURDAY. EARLY TODAY THE MEANDERING LOW
WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLES
TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM. ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY THIS IS TO BUILD WEST ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLES TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. OTHER ENHANCEMENT TO
THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED IN INTERACTION WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
TROUGH OVER VENEZUELA. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96        TYPE
46W     48W    51W    54W    58W    61W    64W    66W        TW
77W     79W    81W    83W    86W    89W    91W    93W        TW
86W     88W    91W    94W    96W    98W   100W   102W        TW
100W   101W   102W   103W   104W   106W   108W   110W        TW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NORTHERN FRENCH
GUIANA EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR COASTAL
CONVECTION WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM. OVER NORTHERN SURINAME-GUYANA THIS IS TO ALSO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
TO SATURDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN IT IS TO THEN TRIGGER
TRACE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W IS TO FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS JAMAICA WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM. MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA AND WESTERN COLOMBIA WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. OVER COSTA
RICA-NICARAGUA THIS IS TO THEN SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ON FRIDAY...WHILE OVER EL
SALVADOR/HONDURAS EXPECT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W...IN INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TUTT...WILL SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS
HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR TO GUATEMALA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO THE WAVE IS TO THEN TRIGGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W IS TO INTERACT WITH MEANDERING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF-CENTRAL MEXICO. AS THE WAVE
MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL-SOUTHWEST MEXICO IT IS TO FAVOR SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTION WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 031507
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1106 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 12Z SUN SEP 06 2015 - 12Z THU SEP 10 2015


WHILE THERE IS STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...THERE IS POSSIBLE TROUBLE AHEAD AS THE
FORECASTS OVER THE PACIFIC VARY FAIRLY WIDELY...AND THOSE EFFECTS
COULD BE FELT DOWNSTREAM FOR THE FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  HOWEVER...USING SOME CONTINUITY AS A GUIDE...THE 06Z GEFS
MEAN STARTED TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND GENERATED WHAT
APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...SO WAS DROPPED IN FAVOR OF
THE 00Z GEFS MEAN...WHICH HAS SOME PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.  WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SOMEWHAT IN LINE
WITH THE MEANS...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST...FAVORED THAT
OPERATIONAL RUN IN THE BLENDS VERSUS THE 00Z GFS...AND ESPECIALLY
THE 06Z GFS...ON DAYS 5 AND 6/TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  NO PROBLEM
IN GENERAL ON DAYS 3 AND 4/SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MANY DIFFERENT
BLENDS OF OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT.  IN
GENERAL...THE 00Z GEFS MEAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS BOTH SEEMED TO
REPRESENT THE LARGE SCALE MOTION AND THE FORECASTS WERE GENERALLY
BASED ON BOTH...WITH DETAILS PROVIDED BOTH BY THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF
THROUGH DAY 4...THE 00Z ECMWF THROUGH DAY 6 AND MOSTLY THE MEANS
ON DAY 7.

THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE DEEP WESTERN TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINS/MOUNTAIN SNOWS ENDING EARLY ON.  AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL USHER IN COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON DAY 4/MONDAY.  MEANWHILE...A BROAD UPPER LOW
WILL REMAIN OVER AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH A CENTER OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND
APPEARS IN THE FORECAST NEAR OR OFF THE COAST THROUGH AT LEAST DAY
6/WEDNESDAY.  BY DAY 5/TUESDAY...THE FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE THE FRONT STALLS THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON DAY 6.  THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE EAST
COAST BY DAY 7/THURSDAY. WITH THE EMPHASIS ON THE SOLUTIONS OF THE
00Z ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS...THE TREND TOWARD A TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST FAVORS THE MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE COUNTRY.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON DAY
3/SUNDAY AND WILL FOCUS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING EASTWARD
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOME LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT QPF
AS THE FRONT STALLS AND A POSSIBLE WAVE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  THE BROAD WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FLORIDA.


KOCIN

$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 031507
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1106 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 12Z SUN SEP 06 2015 - 12Z THU SEP 10 2015


WHILE THERE IS STILL PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...THERE IS POSSIBLE TROUBLE AHEAD AS THE
FORECASTS OVER THE PACIFIC VARY FAIRLY WIDELY...AND THOSE EFFECTS
COULD BE FELT DOWNSTREAM FOR THE FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  HOWEVER...USING SOME CONTINUITY AS A GUIDE...THE 06Z GEFS
MEAN STARTED TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND GENERATED WHAT
APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA...SO WAS DROPPED IN FAVOR OF
THE 00Z GEFS MEAN...WHICH HAS SOME PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.  WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SOMEWHAT IN LINE
WITH THE MEANS...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST...FAVORED THAT
OPERATIONAL RUN IN THE BLENDS VERSUS THE 00Z GFS...AND ESPECIALLY
THE 06Z GFS...ON DAYS 5 AND 6/TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  NO PROBLEM
IN GENERAL ON DAYS 3 AND 4/SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MANY DIFFERENT
BLENDS OF OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE MEANS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT.  IN
GENERAL...THE 00Z GEFS MEAN/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS BOTH SEEMED TO
REPRESENT THE LARGE SCALE MOTION AND THE FORECASTS WERE GENERALLY
BASED ON BOTH...WITH DETAILS PROVIDED BOTH BY THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF
THROUGH DAY 4...THE 00Z ECMWF THROUGH DAY 6 AND MOSTLY THE MEANS
ON DAY 7.

THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS WITH THE DEEP WESTERN TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINS/MOUNTAIN SNOWS ENDING EARLY ON.  AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL USHER IN COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON DAY 4/MONDAY.  MEANWHILE...A BROAD UPPER LOW
WILL REMAIN OVER AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH A CENTER OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND
APPEARS IN THE FORECAST NEAR OR OFF THE COAST THROUGH AT LEAST DAY
6/WEDNESDAY.  BY DAY 5/TUESDAY...THE FRONT CONTINUES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS WHILE THE FRONT STALLS THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON DAY 6.  THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE EAST
COAST BY DAY 7/THURSDAY. WITH THE EMPHASIS ON THE SOLUTIONS OF THE
00Z ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS...THE TREND TOWARD A TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHWEST FAVORS THE MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE COUNTRY.

PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON DAY
3/SUNDAY AND WILL FOCUS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING EASTWARD
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SOME LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT QPF
AS THE FRONT STALLS AND A POSSIBLE WAVE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  THE BROAD WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS THERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FLORIDA.


KOCIN

$$






000
FXSA20 KWBC 031317
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
916 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM SEP 03 AT 0000 UTC): THE 200 HPA ANALYSIS
SHOWS A BROAD CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS MID SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...WITH CLOSED HIGH OVER CHACO PARAGUAYO CENTERED
SOUTH OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION. A CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
TO NORTHERN BRASIL...WHILE A WANING TUTT MEANDERS OVER WESTERN
BRASIL-PERU. THE TUTT ALOFT WAS ENHANCING DIURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS AMAZONAS-ACRE IN WESTERN BRASIL TO PORTIONS OF PERU.

AT 250 HPA...THE SOUTHERN POLAR LIES ALONG 49S 120W...A 122KT
MAXIMUM AT 51S 110W...EXITING AT 52S 99W. IT REFORMS AT 53S 67W...
ALONG 51S 56W...EXITING AT 45S 50W. THE SOUTHERN POLAR HAS ANOTHER
BRANCH TO THE SOUTH WITH ENTRANCE AT 67S 69W...ALONG A 163KT
MAXIMUM AT 52S 50W...47S 39W...EXITING AT 52S 25W. THE NORTHERN
POLAR LIES ALONG A 134KT MAXIMUM AT 43S 120W...46S 109W...46S
94W...EXITING AT 46S 78W. IT REFORMS TO THE NORTH NEAR 29S
86W...ALONG 37S 72W...37S 58W...A 141KT MAXIMUM AT 34S 46W...28S
30W...A 122KT MAXIMUM AT 29S 19W...AND 39S 06W. THE SUBTROPICAL
JET HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 12S 97W...ALONG 19S 88W...A 121KT MAXIMUM
AT 30S 77W...A 153KT MAXIMUM AT 35S 60W...A 145KT MAXIMUM AT 28S
40W...24S 29W...EXITING AT 23S 17W.

ANALYSIS AT 500 HPA SHOWS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PACIFIC. SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS EMBED IN THIS FLOW...WITH A
TROUGH ALONG 95W TO 40S. ANOTHER ENTERED THE DRAKE PASSAGE-EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHILE. THESE THEN FEED INTO A BROAD/LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC...AS THE LATTER ENVELOPS
AREA BETWEEN 60W-00W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20S. A TROUGH ON THE
NORTHERN STREAM... MEANWHILE...MEANDERS BETWEEN 105W-80W AND TO
THE SOUTH OF 17S... WHILE ANCHORING ON A CLOSED LOW NEAR 25S 94W.

AT LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC CENTERS ON A 1035
HPA HIGH AT 40S 86W. PROGRESSIVE POLAR FRONT TO THE SOUTH EXTENDS
FROM AN OCCLUDED 982 HPA LOW AT 59S 75W...ALONG 58S 68W...A 998
HPA LOW AT 56S 67W... SOUTHERN PATAGONIA...47S 76W...51S 84W...A
1006 HPA LOW AT 52S 93W...47S 96W...44S 107W...TO A 1006 HPA LOW
AT 44S 116W. THIS SUSTAINS MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHILE-TIERRA DEL FUEGO. OVER THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC...BROAD TROUGH DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW. THIS
SUSTAINS AN ELONGATED POLAR FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG A 1010 HPA
LOW AT 34S 12W...29S 14W...22S 23W...VITORIA... SOUTHERN MINAS
GERAIS...MATO GROSSO DO SUL...A 1012 HPA LOW AT 24S 54W...TO CHACO
PARAGUAYO/ SOUTHEAST BOLIVIA. THIS FAVORS LIGHT RAINFALL ON THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN COAST OF BRASIL. A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS FRONT ANCHORS ON TWO HIGHS...A 1025 HPA AT 39S 67W AND A 1021
HPA AT 30S 42W.

ROMERO...DMC (CHILE)
FARINA...DMH (PARAGUAY)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$






000
FXSA20 KWBC 031317
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
916 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM SEP 03 AT 0000 UTC): THE 200 HPA ANALYSIS
SHOWS A BROAD CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS MID SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...WITH CLOSED HIGH OVER CHACO PARAGUAYO CENTERED
SOUTH OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION. A CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
TO NORTHERN BRASIL...WHILE A WANING TUTT MEANDERS OVER WESTERN
BRASIL-PERU. THE TUTT ALOFT WAS ENHANCING DIURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS AMAZONAS-ACRE IN WESTERN BRASIL TO PORTIONS OF PERU.

AT 250 HPA...THE SOUTHERN POLAR LIES ALONG 49S 120W...A 122KT
MAXIMUM AT 51S 110W...EXITING AT 52S 99W. IT REFORMS AT 53S 67W...
ALONG 51S 56W...EXITING AT 45S 50W. THE SOUTHERN POLAR HAS ANOTHER
BRANCH TO THE SOUTH WITH ENTRANCE AT 67S 69W...ALONG A 163KT
MAXIMUM AT 52S 50W...47S 39W...EXITING AT 52S 25W. THE NORTHERN
POLAR LIES ALONG A 134KT MAXIMUM AT 43S 120W...46S 109W...46S
94W...EXITING AT 46S 78W. IT REFORMS TO THE NORTH NEAR 29S
86W...ALONG 37S 72W...37S 58W...A 141KT MAXIMUM AT 34S 46W...28S
30W...A 122KT MAXIMUM AT 29S 19W...AND 39S 06W. THE SUBTROPICAL
JET HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 12S 97W...ALONG 19S 88W...A 121KT MAXIMUM
AT 30S 77W...A 153KT MAXIMUM AT 35S 60W...A 145KT MAXIMUM AT 28S
40W...24S 29W...EXITING AT 23S 17W.

ANALYSIS AT 500 HPA SHOWS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PACIFIC. SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS EMBED IN THIS FLOW...WITH A
TROUGH ALONG 95W TO 40S. ANOTHER ENTERED THE DRAKE PASSAGE-EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHILE. THESE THEN FEED INTO A BROAD/LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC...AS THE LATTER ENVELOPS
AREA BETWEEN 60W-00W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20S. A TROUGH ON THE
NORTHERN STREAM... MEANWHILE...MEANDERS BETWEEN 105W-80W AND TO
THE SOUTH OF 17S... WHILE ANCHORING ON A CLOSED LOW NEAR 25S 94W.

AT LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC CENTERS ON A 1035
HPA HIGH AT 40S 86W. PROGRESSIVE POLAR FRONT TO THE SOUTH EXTENDS
FROM AN OCCLUDED 982 HPA LOW AT 59S 75W...ALONG 58S 68W...A 998
HPA LOW AT 56S 67W... SOUTHERN PATAGONIA...47S 76W...51S 84W...A
1006 HPA LOW AT 52S 93W...47S 96W...44S 107W...TO A 1006 HPA LOW
AT 44S 116W. THIS SUSTAINS MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHILE-TIERRA DEL FUEGO. OVER THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC...BROAD TROUGH DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW. THIS
SUSTAINS AN ELONGATED POLAR FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG A 1010 HPA
LOW AT 34S 12W...29S 14W...22S 23W...VITORIA... SOUTHERN MINAS
GERAIS...MATO GROSSO DO SUL...A 1012 HPA LOW AT 24S 54W...TO CHACO
PARAGUAYO/ SOUTHEAST BOLIVIA. THIS FAVORS LIGHT RAINFALL ON THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN COAST OF BRASIL. A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS FRONT ANCHORS ON TWO HIGHS...A 1025 HPA AT 39S 67W AND A 1021
HPA AT 30S 42W.

ROMERO...DMC (CHILE)
FARINA...DMH (PARAGUAY)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 031034
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
633 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM SEP 03/06
UTC: BUILDING CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DISPLACE
TUTT LOW TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AS THE LOW RELOCATES...AN UPPER
CONVERGENT PATTERN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A
DRYER AIR MASS ADVECTED FROM THE EAST. AT LOW LEVELS...A FRESH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS OF
05-10KT. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 45W/46W.

UPPER LOW IS TO MEANDER NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLES/EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER DURING THE WEEKEND THE CUT OFF
LOW IS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...STRONG CAP
INVERSION IS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...AS UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO EVOLVE...THE
INVERSION IS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. THIS IS TO SLOWLY LIFT FROM 800
HPA EARLY THIS CYCLE TO 650/700 HPA DURING THE WEEKEND. AS LIGHT
TRADE WINDS ARE TO PREVAIL...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAND/SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN THIS PATTERN LIGHT
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ARE TO AFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO-VIRGIN ISLES...WHILE  SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS
CENTRAL-WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS IS TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
CAP INVERSION LIFTS AND A LIGHTLY DEEPER/MOISTER AIR MASS ENTERS
THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH VERSIONS OF THE HRWRF SHOW LOCALIZED
MAXIMA OF 2-3 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
CORDILLERA...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER EVOLVING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

TROPICAL WAVE REACHES THE FORECAST AREA EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING.
BUT LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS IS TO ONLY FAVOR LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH EMPHASIS ON THE LIGHT OVER THE
MODERATE.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 031034
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
633 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM SEP 03/06
UTC: BUILDING CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DISPLACE
TUTT LOW TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AS THE LOW RELOCATES...AN UPPER
CONVERGENT PATTERN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A
DRYER AIR MASS ADVECTED FROM THE EAST. AT LOW LEVELS...A FRESH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS OF
05-10KT. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 45W/46W.

UPPER LOW IS TO MEANDER NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLES/EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER DURING THE WEEKEND THE CUT OFF
LOW IS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...STRONG CAP
INVERSION IS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...AS UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO EVOLVE...THE
INVERSION IS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. THIS IS TO SLOWLY LIFT FROM 800
HPA EARLY THIS CYCLE TO 650/700 HPA DURING THE WEEKEND. AS LIGHT
TRADE WINDS ARE TO PREVAIL...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAND/SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN THIS PATTERN LIGHT
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ARE TO AFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO-VIRGIN ISLES...WHILE  SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS
CENTRAL-WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS IS TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
CAP INVERSION LIFTS AND A LIGHTLY DEEPER/MOISTER AIR MASS ENTERS
THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH VERSIONS OF THE HRWRF SHOW LOCALIZED
MAXIMA OF 2-3 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
CORDILLERA...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER EVOLVING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

TROPICAL WAVE REACHES THE FORECAST AREA EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING.
BUT LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS IS TO ONLY FAVOR LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH EMPHASIS ON THE LIGHT OVER THE
MODERATE.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 031034
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
633 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM SEP 03/06
UTC: BUILDING CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DISPLACE
TUTT LOW TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AS THE LOW RELOCATES...AN UPPER
CONVERGENT PATTERN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A
DRYER AIR MASS ADVECTED FROM THE EAST. AT LOW LEVELS...A FRESH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS OF
05-10KT. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 45W/46W.

UPPER LOW IS TO MEANDER NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLES/EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER DURING THE WEEKEND THE CUT OFF
LOW IS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...STRONG CAP
INVERSION IS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...AS UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO EVOLVE...THE
INVERSION IS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. THIS IS TO SLOWLY LIFT FROM 800
HPA EARLY THIS CYCLE TO 650/700 HPA DURING THE WEEKEND. AS LIGHT
TRADE WINDS ARE TO PREVAIL...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAND/SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN THIS PATTERN LIGHT
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ARE TO AFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO-VIRGIN ISLES...WHILE  SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS
CENTRAL-WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS IS TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
CAP INVERSION LIFTS AND A LIGHTLY DEEPER/MOISTER AIR MASS ENTERS
THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH VERSIONS OF THE HRWRF SHOW LOCALIZED
MAXIMA OF 2-3 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
CORDILLERA...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER EVOLVING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

TROPICAL WAVE REACHES THE FORECAST AREA EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING.
BUT LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS IS TO ONLY FAVOR LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH EMPHASIS ON THE LIGHT OVER THE
MODERATE.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 031034
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
633 AM EDT THU SEP 03 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM SEP 03/06
UTC: BUILDING CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DISPLACE
TUTT LOW TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AS THE LOW RELOCATES...AN UPPER
CONVERGENT PATTERN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A
DRYER AIR MASS ADVECTED FROM THE EAST. AT LOW LEVELS...A FRESH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS OF
05-10KT. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 45W/46W.

UPPER LOW IS TO MEANDER NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLES/EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER DURING THE WEEKEND THE CUT OFF
LOW IS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH...AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...STRONG CAP
INVERSION IS TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...AS UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO EVOLVE...THE
INVERSION IS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT. THIS IS TO SLOWLY LIFT FROM 800
HPA EARLY THIS CYCLE TO 650/700 HPA DURING THE WEEKEND. AS LIGHT
TRADE WINDS ARE TO PREVAIL...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAND/SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN THIS PATTERN LIGHT
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ARE TO AFFECT EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO-VIRGIN ISLES...WHILE  SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS
CENTRAL-WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS IS TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
CAP INVERSION LIFTS AND A LIGHTLY DEEPER/MOISTER AIR MASS ENTERS
THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH VERSIONS OF THE HRWRF SHOW LOCALIZED
MAXIMA OF 2-3 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
CORDILLERA...THIS SEEMS REASONABLE UNDER EVOLVING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

TROPICAL WAVE REACHES THE FORECAST AREA EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING.
BUT LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS IS TO ONLY FAVOR LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH EMPHASIS ON THE LIGHT OVER THE
MODERATE.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$







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