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000
FXCA20 KWBC 081253
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
753 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VI FROM FEBRUARY
08/06 UTC. CURRENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS FAVORING A PERSISTENT
BROAD POLAR TROUGH OVER THE UNITED STATES/EXTREME WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
EASTERN AND NE CARIBBEAN. PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH PATTERN TO THE
NORTH IS SUSTAINING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SE BAHAMAS INTO EXTREME SE CUBA-CAYMAN ISLANDS-GULF OF HONDURAS. A
SHEAR LINE MEANDERS FROM NORTHERN HISPANIOLA SW INTO THE HAITIAN
PENINSULA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN LIES
AWAY FROM THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF THIS FRONT. TRADES ARE WEAK IN
THE ORDER OF 05-10KT FROM THE ESE...AND DRY CONDITIONS EXTEND FROM
925 HPA INTO THE TROPOPAUSE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THIS WILL SUSTAIN CURRENT SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE TO
LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. FRONT WILL MEANDER IN THIS POSITION
THROUGH THE CYCLE...REINFORCED BY A NEW COLD SURGE ON TUESDAY
EVENING. PUERTO RICO AND THE VI WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SE OF THE
FRONT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN A
05-10KT ESE TRADE WIND REGIME. SOME DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED
DURING WEDNESDAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF NEARBY PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...FORECAST TO EXTEND NEAR/JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MONA
PASSAGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALL MODELS AGREE ON LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE CYCLE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CAPTURE THE
SLIGHT INCREASE IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY. REGARDING
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...BOTH CAPTURE LARGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN NW PUERTO RICO. THIS SOLUTION WHICH MAKES SENSE UNDER AN ESE
TRADE WIND REGIME. EXPECTING THEN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE
CYCLE WITH AMOUNTS IN THE ORDER OF 05-10MM/DAY WHERE SHOWERS
OCCUR. ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-30MM IS EXPECTED IN INTERIOR REGIONS
OF NW PUERTO RICO IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
THE COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY AND ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

HUNTE...BMS (BARBADOS)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 081253
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
753 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VI FROM FEBRUARY
08/06 UTC. CURRENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS FAVORING A PERSISTENT
BROAD POLAR TROUGH OVER THE UNITED STATES/EXTREME WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
EASTERN AND NE CARIBBEAN. PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH PATTERN TO THE
NORTH IS SUSTAINING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SE BAHAMAS INTO EXTREME SE CUBA-CAYMAN ISLANDS-GULF OF HONDURAS. A
SHEAR LINE MEANDERS FROM NORTHERN HISPANIOLA SW INTO THE HAITIAN
PENINSULA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN LIES
AWAY FROM THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF THIS FRONT. TRADES ARE WEAK IN
THE ORDER OF 05-10KT FROM THE ESE...AND DRY CONDITIONS EXTEND FROM
925 HPA INTO THE TROPOPAUSE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THIS WILL SUSTAIN CURRENT SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE TO
LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. FRONT WILL MEANDER IN THIS POSITION
THROUGH THE CYCLE...REINFORCED BY A NEW COLD SURGE ON TUESDAY
EVENING. PUERTO RICO AND THE VI WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SE OF THE
FRONT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN A
05-10KT ESE TRADE WIND REGIME. SOME DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED
DURING WEDNESDAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF NEARBY PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH...FORECAST TO EXTEND NEAR/JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MONA
PASSAGE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALL MODELS AGREE ON LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE CYCLE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CAPTURE THE
SLIGHT INCREASE IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING WEDNESDAY. REGARDING
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...BOTH CAPTURE LARGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN NW PUERTO RICO. THIS SOLUTION WHICH MAKES SENSE UNDER AN ESE
TRADE WIND REGIME. EXPECTING THEN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE
CYCLE WITH AMOUNTS IN THE ORDER OF 05-10MM/DAY WHERE SHOWERS
OCCUR. ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-30MM IS EXPECTED IN INTERIOR REGIONS
OF NW PUERTO RICO IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
THE COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY AND ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

HUNTE...BMS (BARBADOS)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 080750
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016

VALID 12Z MON FEB 08 2016 - 12Z WED FEB 10 2016

...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS...

...SNOW AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST...

...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...

A STRONG AND IMPRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE TODAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES AS
FAR SOUTH AS LONG ISLAND. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN HALF OF LONG ISLAND NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD, WHERE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 15 INCHES.
ADDITIONALLY, THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE
WILL RESULT IN WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 65 MPH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW WILL CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. HEAVY WET SNOW AND STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN
DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING -- AND THE SNOW AND WIND WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY
OR TAPER OFF.

A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY, WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH
STRONG WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH IN SOME AREAS TO PRODUCE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. SNOW AND WIND SHOULD TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. THE SYSTEM
WILL ALSO PRODUCE SCATTERED AREAS OF SNOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY INTO TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS RECEIVING LAKE EFFECT
ENHANCEMENT. BY THIS EVENING, THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFER ENERGY TO A
NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC, WHICH WILL START AS A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR MANY AREAS, BUT WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AS COLDER
AIR WRAPS INTO THE NEWLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY MORNING, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL
LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES, APPALACHIANS, AND MID-ATLANTIC, WHICH
WILL KEEP AREAS OF SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MANY
AREAS. HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, ALBEIT
RELATIVELY LIGHT COMPARED TO THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION TODAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL BECOME COLDER AS AN ARCTIC AIR
MASS MOVES IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, AND SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE, THE WEST WILL
EXPERIENCE DRY CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.


RYAN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 080615
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
114 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016

VALID 12Z THU FEB 11 2016 - 12Z MON FEB 15 2016

...RECORD COLD POSSIBLE IN THE EAST THIS WEEKEND...

THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY NEXT
MONDAY, BUT NOT WITHOUT SOME EXTREME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CONUS. RECORD HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER
TROUGHING PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, KNOCKING DOWN
TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE RECENTLY STRUGGLED
WITH HOW THIS TROUGH SPLITS IN THE EAST PACIFIC. RECENT GFS RUNS
HAVE DEPARTED FROM CONTINUITY AND THE ECMWF/ECENS CONSENSUS IN THE
WEST ENOUGH TO LIMIT ITS INCLUSION IN THE BLEND, THOUGH ITS
SOLUTION(S) STILL LIE WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. EITHER WAY,
HEIGHTS WILL LOWER IN THE WEST LATER THIS WEEK AS A PACIFIC FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD, SPREADING PRECIP THROUGH WA/OR AND INTO IDAHO AND
WESTERN MONTANA. BY NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY, ASSUMING THIS SHORTWAVE
REACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS INSTEAD OF BEING DELAYED BY A DAY OR
TWO, GULF MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND HELP WRING OUT SOME SHOWERS.

IN THE EAST, THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE LATER THIS WEEK WILL
HELP DRAW IN ANOTHER COLD UPPER LOW THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI-SUN. THIS WILL BRING IN VERY COLD
AIR FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC AND
WILL MAINTAIN LAKE-EFFECT/UPSLOPE SNOWS. GFS HAS TRENDED COLDER
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FROM 24-36 HRS AGO, WHICH WAS ALONG WPC
CONTINUITY. RECORD COLD MINS ARE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS OF RECENT
SNOWFALL. SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO ARE LIKELY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY MORNING WHILE SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES BELOW
ZERO ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF NEW ENGLAND, NY, AND NW NJ WHICH IS
ABOUT 20-25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID-FEBRUARY.


FRACASSO

$$







000
FXUS06 KWBC 072002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

THERE IS NO FORECASTER MESSAGE WRITTEN ON WEEKENDS

NOTES:

AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19520127 - 19970129 - 19760126 - 19770211 - 20010119

ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19520129 - 19970130 - 19710211 - 19770212 - 19860123

6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 13 - 17, 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    N    B     LOUISIANA   N    B     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI B    B     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    B
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    B     NEW YORK    B    B
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    N
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  B    B
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    B    B
N CAROLINA  B    B     S CAROLINA  B    B     GEORGIA     B    B
FL PNHDL    B    B     FL PENIN    B    B     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A


8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 15 - 21, 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    B    A
N CAROLINA  B    N     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    B    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$





000
FXUS01 KWBC 072000
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

VALID 00Z MON FEB 08 2016 - 00Z WED FEB 10 2016

...SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WITH
10-20 DEGREE DEPARTURES FROM AVERAGE HIGHS BY TUESDAY...

...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TO START
OFF THE WEEK...

...WARM AND DRY ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH MID-WEEK...

A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COASTLINE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM
LAND TO LARGELY SPARE NEW ENGLAND FROM A MAJOR SNOW STORM. STILL,
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL LIE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE OUTER EDGES
OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND COULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS, WHERE 6 OR MORE INCHES COULD FALL THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

A SECOND STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING BLIZZARD-LIKE
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF THE LOWER NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MINNESOTA. WHILE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIGHT, THE STORM IS
USHERING IN FRIGID TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTH WITH WINDS GUSTING
TO 40 AND 50 MPH. A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SIZE AS IT SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION BY TUESDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MANY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH MOSTLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, THOUGH SOME
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 4-6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
LIMITED CLOUD COVER FROM WASHINGTON TO CALIFORNIA. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO NEAR THE WEST COAST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL INCREASE CLOUDS ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS, BUT ANY CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WILL HOLD OFF TIL LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND BE
LIMITED TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

OTTO


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 071426
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
925 AM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

VALID 12Z WED FEB 10 2016 - 12Z SUN FEB 14 2016


...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFIED WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK.  TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THE WESTERN
RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS INLAND AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH POSSIBLY MOVES
ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL TIMING AND PHASING
DIFFERENCES.  THE TIMING RELATES TO THE 06Z GFS FASTER THAN THE
00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL TIMING.  THE PHASING DIFFERENCE LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE SOUTHWEST US WITH THE 00Z ECMWF QUITE
AMPLIFIED...AND THE GFS TYPICALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE GFS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECASTS...WITH A
BLEND OF THE 0Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/06Z GEFS MEAN USED FOR
DAYS 3-7 FORECASTS FOR 500 MB HEIGHTS AND ADJUSTED SEA LEVEL
PRESSURES.

IN THE NORTHEAST/COASTAL WATERS...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS/PRESSURES WITH POSSIBLE MULTI CIRCULATION
CENTERS EMBEDDED THEREIN. AS THE BROAD CIRCULATION DEPARTS...COLD
AIR SPILLS OUT OF CANADA THROUGH THE LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
A SECONDARY FRONT NEXT WEEKEND DRIVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND FL
ON THE NOSE OF A SURGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH
BUILDING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION INTO THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

RESIDUAL SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE ON WED IN THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO
THE NORTHEAST IN THE BROAD CYCL0NIC CIRCULATION.  LAKE-EFFECT
SNOWS ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY BANDS
EXPECTED.  SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCUR WITH EACH COLD FRONT IN THE
SOUTHEAST BUT NO MAJOR PRECIP EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
GREAT LAKES IN THE EASTERN US.  TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WILL BE
WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA OVER THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND AND
THEN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST SAT/SUN.

IN THE WEST...THE PRIMARY PRECIP IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE WEST WITH THE
BIGGEST ANOMALIES FORECAST OVER CENTRAL TO WESTERN MT WHERE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED-FRI
AND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SAT 13 FEB-SUN 14 FEB.

PETERSEN/FRACASSO

$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 071426
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
925 AM EST SUN FEB 07 2016

VALID 12Z WED FEB 10 2016 - 12Z SUN FEB 14 2016


...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...

AMPLIFIED WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK.  TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...THE WESTERN
RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS INLAND AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH POSSIBLY MOVES
ONSHORE NEXT WEEKEND...WITH TYPICAL TIMING AND PHASING
DIFFERENCES.  THE TIMING RELATES TO THE 06Z GFS FASTER THAN THE
00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL TIMING.  THE PHASING DIFFERENCE LEADS TO
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE SOUTHWEST US WITH THE 00Z ECMWF QUITE
AMPLIFIED...AND THE GFS TYPICALLY MORE PROGRESSIVE.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE GFS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECASTS...WITH A
BLEND OF THE 0Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/06Z GEFS MEAN USED FOR
DAYS 3-7 FORECASTS FOR 500 MB HEIGHTS AND ADJUSTED SEA LEVEL
PRESSURES.

IN THE NORTHEAST/COASTAL WATERS...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS/PRESSURES WITH POSSIBLE MULTI CIRCULATION
CENTERS EMBEDDED THEREIN. AS THE BROAD CIRCULATION DEPARTS...COLD
AIR SPILLS OUT OF CANADA THROUGH THE LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
A SECONDARY FRONT NEXT WEEKEND DRIVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND FL
ON THE NOSE OF A SURGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH
BUILDING OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
NEXT WEEKEND.  THIS WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION INTO THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

RESIDUAL SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE ON WED IN THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC TO
THE NORTHEAST IN THE BROAD CYCL0NIC CIRCULATION.  LAKE-EFFECT
SNOWS ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY BANDS
EXPECTED.  SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCUR WITH EACH COLD FRONT IN THE
SOUTHEAST BUT NO MAJOR PRECIP EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
GREAT LAKES IN THE EASTERN US.  TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WILL BE
WELL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA OVER THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND AND
THEN FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST SAT/SUN.

IN THE WEST...THE PRIMARY PRECIP IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE
APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE WEST WITH THE
BIGGEST ANOMALIES FORECAST OVER CENTRAL TO WESTERN MT WHERE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WED-FRI
AND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SAT 13 FEB-SUN 14 FEB.

PETERSEN/FRACASSO

$$







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