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000
FXCA20 KWBC 201106
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
706 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. AT UPPER
LEVELS... WANING TUTT LOW NOW CENTERS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO/USVI...WHILE EXTENDING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER TUTT LIES TO THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. AT MID LEVELS...A CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE
MAINTAINS ITS FOOTHOLD ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN/EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO DELAY ONSET OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS IT. AT LOW
LEVELS...NORTHEASTERLY TRAILS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH WINDS OF 10-15KT. ALSO AT LOW LEVELS...TROPICAL WAVE
LIES NOW ALONG 45W/46W. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER TUTT TO
THE NORTH...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
ITCZ.

AT UPPER LEVELS...TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IS TO GRADUALLY
PULL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LATTER MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH THEN CONTINUES EAST
INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES/EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS A BROAD RIDGE
ESTABLISHES TO THE WEST. THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING THIS IS TO
DISPLACE THE TROUGH FARTHER TO THE EAST WHILE GRADUALLY EXPANDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS...IN-TURN...IS TO SUSTAIN UPPER
CONVERGENT PATTERN AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS THEN PROJECT A SHARP DROP IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN A PWAT MINIMA OF 35-35MM IS TO
ENVELOP THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE TO THEN
VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES...THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO CLUSTER ALONG THE
CORDILLERA IN PUERTO RICO. THIS IS TO GENERALLY FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50 AN INCH...WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 1.0 TO
1.5. ALTHOUGH GENERALLY PATTERN IS TO HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH TO FOLLOW IS LIKELY TO
FAVOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ACTIVITY IS TO THEN WANE ON WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY AS UPPER
CONVERGENT PATTERN IS TO GENERALLY FAVOR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

THE TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD EARLY ON FRIDAY. AS MID/UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN IS LIKELY
TO HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED FAR TO THE SOUTH.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 200756
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 12Z MON OCT 20 2014 - 12Z WED OCT 22 2014

***UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE NORTHWESTERN STATES***

***SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO***

***RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY MIDWEEK***

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE U.S. AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST CONTINUES TO
MOVE INLAND EARLY THIS WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING DOWN SNOW LEVELS
ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE PROGS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TO WASHINGTON AND OREGON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND INTO NEW MEXICO FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
 MOISTURE FLOWING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THINGS GET INTERESTING FOR NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK BY
TUESDAY AS A NOR`EASTER DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OF
PHILADELPHIA AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.  A FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE THE STORM DEPARTS.

HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 200756
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 12Z MON OCT 20 2014 - 12Z WED OCT 22 2014

***UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE NORTHWESTERN STATES***

***SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO***

***RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY MIDWEEK***

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE U.S. AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST CONTINUES TO
MOVE INLAND EARLY THIS WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING DOWN SNOW LEVELS
ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE PROGS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TO WASHINGTON AND OREGON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND INTO NEW MEXICO FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
 MOISTURE FLOWING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THINGS GET INTERESTING FOR NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK BY
TUESDAY AS A NOR`EASTER DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OF
PHILADELPHIA AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.  A FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE THE STORM DEPARTS.

HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 200756
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 12Z MON OCT 20 2014 - 12Z WED OCT 22 2014

***UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE NORTHWESTERN STATES***

***SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO***

***RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY MIDWEEK***

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE U.S. AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST CONTINUES TO
MOVE INLAND EARLY THIS WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING DOWN SNOW LEVELS
ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE PROGS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TO WASHINGTON AND OREGON.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND INTO NEW MEXICO FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
 MOISTURE FLOWING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THINGS GET INTERESTING FOR NEW ENGLAND AND UPSTATE NEW YORK BY
TUESDAY AS A NOR`EASTER DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STORM SYSTEM.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR LOCATIONS PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OF
PHILADELPHIA AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN.  A FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK OVER NEW
ENGLAND BEFORE THE STORM DEPARTS.

HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 200535
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
134 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 12Z THU OCT 23 2014 - 12Z MON OCT 27 2014


...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

RELIED ON THE EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE--PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF ITS REASONABLE DEPICTION OF THE
RECURVATURE OF THE LOW EMERGING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. THIS LOW--WHICH COULD WELL BE TROPICAL IN
NATURE--ALONG WITH THE POLAR FRONT LYING ZONALLY TO ITS NORTH ARE
KEY FEATURES FOR WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE SPRAWLING VORTEX
SLOWLY DISENGAGING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP
THE COLD RAINS FALLING OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF
WEEK--WITH THE ATTENDANT POLAR FRONT BOTTOMING OUT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THAT FRONT WILL AFFORD AN EFFICIENT OVERRUNNING
SURFACE FOR THE TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA, WITH SOUTHERN FLORIDA--PARTICULARLY THE
KEYS--LIKELY TO RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WHERE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOAKING RAINS
FROM THE CASCADES TO THE COAST ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE OFFSHORE
LONGWAVE TROUGH.


CISCO

$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 200535
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
134 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 12Z THU OCT 23 2014 - 12Z MON OCT 27 2014


...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

RELIED ON THE EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE--PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF ITS REASONABLE DEPICTION OF THE
RECURVATURE OF THE LOW EMERGING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. THIS LOW--WHICH COULD WELL BE TROPICAL IN
NATURE--ALONG WITH THE POLAR FRONT LYING ZONALLY TO ITS NORTH ARE
KEY FEATURES FOR WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. THE SPRAWLING VORTEX
SLOWLY DISENGAGING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP
THE COLD RAINS FALLING OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF
WEEK--WITH THE ATTENDANT POLAR FRONT BOTTOMING OUT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THAT FRONT WILL AFFORD AN EFFICIENT OVERRUNNING
SURFACE FOR THE TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA, WITH SOUTHERN FLORIDA--PARTICULARLY THE
KEYS--LIKELY TO RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WHERE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOAKING RAINS
FROM THE CASCADES TO THE COAST ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE OFFSHORE
LONGWAVE TROUGH.


CISCO

$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 191914
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
314 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 00Z MON OCT 20 2014 - 00Z WED OCT 22 2014

***ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING RAINS TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST***

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CAUSE A ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TO PARTS OF THE WEST COAST FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, EVENTUALLY EDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN, AND GIVEN THE WARM NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, ANY SNOW WOULD
BE CONFINED TO HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.  AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN.

PARTS OF TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHOULD SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS INTO TUESDAY AS A PACKET OF ENERGY AND COOLNESS
ALOFT MOVING ALONG THE UNITED STATES/MEXICO BORDER COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AND LURES MOISTURE IN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST, CAUSING A COASTAL LOW TO
DEVELOP/CONSOLIDATE ON TUESDAY.  PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT DUE TO A DEARTH OF
INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC.  WITHIN THE
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE ACROSS THE REGION, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND
NORTHEAST.

ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 191914
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
314 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 00Z MON OCT 20 2014 - 00Z WED OCT 22 2014

***ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING RAINS TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST***

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CAUSE A ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TO PARTS OF THE WEST COAST FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, EVENTUALLY EDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN, AND GIVEN THE WARM NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, ANY SNOW WOULD
BE CONFINED TO HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.  AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN.

PARTS OF TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHOULD SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS INTO TUESDAY AS A PACKET OF ENERGY AND COOLNESS
ALOFT MOVING ALONG THE UNITED STATES/MEXICO BORDER COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AND LURES MOISTURE IN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST, CAUSING A COASTAL LOW TO
DEVELOP/CONSOLIDATE ON TUESDAY.  PRECIPITATION EXPECTED INTO
TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT DUE TO A DEARTH OF
INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC.  WITHIN THE
COOL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE ACROSS THE REGION, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND
NORTHEAST.

ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 191912
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
312 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 00Z MON OCT 20 2014 - 00Z WED OCT 22 2014

***ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BRING RAINS TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST***

A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CAUSE A ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TO PARTS OF THE WEST COAST FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, EVENTUALLY EDGING INTO THE NORTHERN
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD FALL OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN, AND GIVEN THE WARM NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, ANY SNOW WOULD
BE CONFINED TO HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.  AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN.

PARTS OF TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHOULD SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS INTO TUESDAY AS A PACKET OF ENERGY AND COOLNESS
ALOFT MOVING ALONG THE UNITED STATES/MEXICO BORDER COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AND LURES MOISTURE IN
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST, CAUSING A COASTAL LOW TO
DEVELOP/CONSOLIDATE ON TUESDAY.  PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS IN THIS REGION SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT DUE TO A
DEARTH OF INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC.
WITHIN THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE ACROSS THE REGION, BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO
VALLEY, AND NORTHEAST.

ROTH

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS06 KWBC 191900
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE IS NO FORECASTER MESSAGE WRITTEN ON WEEKENDS

NOTES:

AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19791024 - 19901026 - 19541018 - 19841008 - 19620929

ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19901026 - 19791024 - 19620928 - 19841007 - 19541017

6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 25 - 29, 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     N    B     S TEXAS     N    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   N    B     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI N    B     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        A    B     KENTUCKY    A    B
TENNESSEE   A    B     ALABAMA     N    B     NEW YORK    B    B
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    B     MAINE       B    B
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    B
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  N    B
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    B    B
N CAROLINA  B    B     S CAROLINA  B    B     GEORGIA     N    B
FL PNHDL    B    B     FL PENIN    B    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    B    B


8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 27 - NOV 02, 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    B
TENNESSEE   A    B     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    B     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       A    B
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    B     DELAWARE    A    B     VIRGINIA    A    B
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$





000
FXUS06 KWBC 191900
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE IS NO FORECASTER MESSAGE WRITTEN ON WEEKENDS

NOTES:

AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19791024 - 19901026 - 19541018 - 19841008 - 19620929

ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19901026 - 19791024 - 19620928 - 19841007 - 19541017

6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 25 - 29, 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     N    B     S TEXAS     N    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   N    B     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI N    B     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        A    B     KENTUCKY    A    B
TENNESSEE   A    B     ALABAMA     N    B     NEW YORK    B    B
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    B     MAINE       B    B
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    B
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  N    B
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    B    B
N CAROLINA  B    B     S CAROLINA  B    B     GEORGIA     N    B
FL PNHDL    B    B     FL PENIN    B    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    B    B


8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 27 - NOV 02, 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    B
TENNESSEE   A    B     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    B     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       A    B
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    B     DELAWARE    A    B     VIRGINIA    A    B
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




000
FXUS02 KWBC 191548
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1147 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 12Z WED OCT 22 2014 - 12Z SUN OCT 26 2014

TRENDS AND INCREASED SPREAD SEEN IN SOME OF THE 00Z-06Z GUIDANCE
HAVE LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO WRN
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
BEYOND THE LATEST GFS/GEFS MEAN RUNS TRENDING FASTER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF ERN PAC TROUGH ENERGY INTO THE WEST... 00Z
GEFS/ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE BY FRI-SUN AND
00Z ECMWF/CMC RUNS ALONG WITH SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS RAISE THE
POSSIBILITY THAT ERN PAC TROUGH FLOW COULD SPLIT.  A FURTHER
COMPLEXITY IS UNCERTAINTY OVER THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TROPICAL
CYCLONE ANA AND THE SRN EDGE OF THE PACIFIC WESTERLIES.  D+8
MULTI-DAY MEANS INDICATE THAT POSITIVE HGT ANOMALY CENTERS OVER
THE NERN ATLC AND AT HIGH LATITUDES OF THE ERN HEMISPHERE NEAR 80E
MAY BE PROMINENT WITH BOTH TELECONNECTING TO PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48.  THE FLATTENING TREND OF
UPSTREAM PAC FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD ALONG WITH
TELECONNECTION-FAVORED FLOW PRECLUDE FULL DISCOUNTING OF A FASTER
ERN PAC TROUGH... BUT CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENTLY BELOW AVG TO GIVE
THE 00Z GEFS MEAN ONLY 30 PCT WEIGHTING RELATIVE TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MEAN.

FARTHER EWD A CONSENSUS APPROACH STILL APPEARS BEST FOR THE SYSTEM
FCST TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST MID-LATE WEEK.  THE INITIAL 70/30
BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN/00Z GEFS MEAN WAS ENHANCED SOMEWHAT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE BETTER DETAIL OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE.  COMPARED
TO PRIOR DAYS THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SFC LOW TRACK CLOSER
TO THE SERN NEW ENGLAND COAST... WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
UPR LOW TRACK.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTIES WITH INITIAL
ROCKIES/PLAINS ENERGY THAT SHOULD AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM FROM A
BUILDING SWRN-CNTRL CONUS RIDGE.  MULTI-DAY TRENDS HAVE BEEN
TOWARD THE FASTER EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE.  THUS FAR ONLY THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOWS SUCH A DEEP/CLOSED SYSTEM REACHING THE
GULF OF MEXICO SO ITS 00Z RUN THAT PULLS LOWER LATITUDE LOW
PRESSURE INTO THE ERN GULF APPEARS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY
SCENARIO.  RELATIVE TO THE FULL 00Z ENSEMBLE SPREAD FOR SFC LOWS
THE 00Z ECMWF IS FAIRLY EXTREME THOUGH NOT QUITE TO THE POINT OF
BEING AN OUTLIER.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST WED-FRI SHOULD BRING AREAS OF
ENHANCED RNFL TO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH CHILLY/BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE EAST.  ERN CONUS TEMPS
SHOULD MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK THOUGH BREEZY CONDS MAY
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST.  CONTINUE TO EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR HVY
RNFL OVER THE FL KEYS/EXTREME SRN PENINSULA AS DEEP TROPICAL MSTR
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT TRAILING FROM THE NERN SYSTEM.  THE PAC
NW WILL ALSO SEE ONE OR MORE EPISODES OF MDT-HVY RNFL WITH ONGOING
DETAIL DIFFS IN GUIDANCE LEAVING SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER PRECISE SWD
EXTENT.  IMPACT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES ALOFT OVER THE
ERN PAC/WRN CONUS BECOMES AN ISSUE LATER IN THE PERIOD AS WELL.
MEANWHILE MULTI-DAY TRENDS TOWARD FASTER PROGRESSION OF WEAK
ROCKIES/PLAINS ENERGY EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD KEEP ASSOC PLAINS
RNFL MOSTLY IN THE LGT-MDT RANGE.  WARMEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO
NORMAL WILL EXTEND FROM THE INTERIOR WEST THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS.
GREATEST COVERAGE OF PLUS 10-20F ANOMALIES IS LIKELY THU-SAT...
WHEN READINGS COULD APPROACH/REACH DAILY RECORD VALUES AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

RAUSCH

$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 191548
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1147 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 12Z WED OCT 22 2014 - 12Z SUN OCT 26 2014

TRENDS AND INCREASED SPREAD SEEN IN SOME OF THE 00Z-06Z GUIDANCE
HAVE LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO WRN
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
BEYOND THE LATEST GFS/GEFS MEAN RUNS TRENDING FASTER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF ERN PAC TROUGH ENERGY INTO THE WEST... 00Z
GEFS/ECMWF/CMC ENSEMBLE SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE BY FRI-SUN AND
00Z ECMWF/CMC RUNS ALONG WITH SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS RAISE THE
POSSIBILITY THAT ERN PAC TROUGH FLOW COULD SPLIT.  A FURTHER
COMPLEXITY IS UNCERTAINTY OVER THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TROPICAL
CYCLONE ANA AND THE SRN EDGE OF THE PACIFIC WESTERLIES.  D+8
MULTI-DAY MEANS INDICATE THAT POSITIVE HGT ANOMALY CENTERS OVER
THE NERN ATLC AND AT HIGH LATITUDES OF THE ERN HEMISPHERE NEAR 80E
MAY BE PROMINENT WITH BOTH TELECONNECTING TO PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE FLOW OVER THE LOWER 48.  THE FLATTENING TREND OF
UPSTREAM PAC FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD ALONG WITH
TELECONNECTION-FAVORED FLOW PRECLUDE FULL DISCOUNTING OF A FASTER
ERN PAC TROUGH... BUT CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENTLY BELOW AVG TO GIVE
THE 00Z GEFS MEAN ONLY 30 PCT WEIGHTING RELATIVE TO THE 00Z ECMWF
MEAN.

FARTHER EWD A CONSENSUS APPROACH STILL APPEARS BEST FOR THE SYSTEM
FCST TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST MID-LATE WEEK.  THE INITIAL 70/30
BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN/00Z GEFS MEAN WAS ENHANCED SOMEWHAT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE BETTER DETAIL OF OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE.  COMPARED
TO PRIOR DAYS THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SFC LOW TRACK CLOSER
TO THE SERN NEW ENGLAND COAST... WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
UPR LOW TRACK.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTIES WITH INITIAL
ROCKIES/PLAINS ENERGY THAT SHOULD AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM FROM A
BUILDING SWRN-CNTRL CONUS RIDGE.  MULTI-DAY TRENDS HAVE BEEN
TOWARD THE FASTER EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE.  THUS FAR ONLY THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF SHOWS SUCH A DEEP/CLOSED SYSTEM REACHING THE
GULF OF MEXICO SO ITS 00Z RUN THAT PULLS LOWER LATITUDE LOW
PRESSURE INTO THE ERN GULF APPEARS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY
SCENARIO.  RELATIVE TO THE FULL 00Z ENSEMBLE SPREAD FOR SFC LOWS
THE 00Z ECMWF IS FAIRLY EXTREME THOUGH NOT QUITE TO THE POINT OF
BEING AN OUTLIER.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST WED-FRI SHOULD BRING AREAS OF
ENHANCED RNFL TO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH CHILLY/BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE EAST.  ERN CONUS TEMPS
SHOULD MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK THOUGH BREEZY CONDS MAY
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST.  CONTINUE TO EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR HVY
RNFL OVER THE FL KEYS/EXTREME SRN PENINSULA AS DEEP TROPICAL MSTR
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT TRAILING FROM THE NERN SYSTEM.  THE PAC
NW WILL ALSO SEE ONE OR MORE EPISODES OF MDT-HVY RNFL WITH ONGOING
DETAIL DIFFS IN GUIDANCE LEAVING SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER PRECISE SWD
EXTENT.  IMPACT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES ALOFT OVER THE
ERN PAC/WRN CONUS BECOMES AN ISSUE LATER IN THE PERIOD AS WELL.
MEANWHILE MULTI-DAY TRENDS TOWARD FASTER PROGRESSION OF WEAK
ROCKIES/PLAINS ENERGY EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD KEEP ASSOC PLAINS
RNFL MOSTLY IN THE LGT-MDT RANGE.  WARMEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO
NORMAL WILL EXTEND FROM THE INTERIOR WEST THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS.
GREATEST COVERAGE OF PLUS 10-20F ANOMALIES IS LIKELY THU-SAT...
WHEN READINGS COULD APPROACH/REACH DAILY RECORD VALUES AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

RAUSCH

$$






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