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000
FXUS06 KWBC 221902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 28 - JUN 01, 2015

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. SPLIT-FLOW IS PREDICTED OVER THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA WITH A RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE U.S. SOUTHWEST. A TROUGH
IS PREDICTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS HIGHER OVER THE WEST IN THE
MODELS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THERE IS CONSENSUS AMONG
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN PREDICTING ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY IN A SMALL AREA OF WESTERN TEXAS,
WHILE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN U.S.,
CONSISTENT WITH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA LEADS TO INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEST AND ALASKA.

THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE EAST LEADS
TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS,
WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY IN COASTAL REGIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO LAKE SUPERIOR, AS WELL AS
FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST IN THE SOUTHEAST, AS INDICATED BY REFORECAST CALIBRATED
PROBABILITIES FROM THE NCEP GEFS AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES.

THE PROBABILITY OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ENHANCED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH, WHILE BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE,
UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
AND 35% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AND SURFACE TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 30 - JUN 05, 2015

DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, MODELS SOMEWHAT PERSIST THE CIRCULATION PATTERN OF
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST, WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND LARGER ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER ALASKA. MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT TROUGHS
OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, EASTERN CANADA, AND THE U.S. SOUTHWEST, AND RIDGES
OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. IS
FORECAST TO BE UNDER ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE U.S. WEST, AS WELL AS FOR
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, UNDER ABOVE-NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHTS.
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED FOR WEST TEXAS,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREDICTED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH, AND FOR PARTS OF NORTH
DAKOTA AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST
LIKELY FOR ALASKA WITH RIDGING PREDICTED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.

ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SPLIT STREAM.
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, AND COASTAL
AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND TOOLS.

FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20080526 - 19720506 - 19710605 - 19890602 - 19630520


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20080526 - 19720505 - 19890602 - 20090604 - 19950502


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 28 - JUN 01, 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 30 - JUN 05, 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$





000
FXUS06 KWBC 221902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 28 - JUN 01, 2015

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. SPLIT-FLOW IS PREDICTED OVER THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA WITH A RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE U.S. SOUTHWEST. A TROUGH
IS PREDICTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS HIGHER OVER THE WEST IN THE
MODELS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THERE IS CONSENSUS AMONG
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN PREDICTING ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY IN A SMALL AREA OF WESTERN TEXAS,
WHILE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN U.S.,
CONSISTENT WITH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA LEADS TO INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEST AND ALASKA.

THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE EAST LEADS
TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS,
WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY IN COASTAL REGIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO LAKE SUPERIOR, AS WELL AS
FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST IN THE SOUTHEAST, AS INDICATED BY REFORECAST CALIBRATED
PROBABILITIES FROM THE NCEP GEFS AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES.

THE PROBABILITY OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ENHANCED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH, WHILE BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE,
UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
AND 35% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AND SURFACE TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 30 - JUN 05, 2015

DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, MODELS SOMEWHAT PERSIST THE CIRCULATION PATTERN OF
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST, WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND LARGER ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER ALASKA. MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT TROUGHS
OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, EASTERN CANADA, AND THE U.S. SOUTHWEST, AND RIDGES
OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. IS
FORECAST TO BE UNDER ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE U.S. WEST, AS WELL AS FOR
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, UNDER ABOVE-NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHTS.
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED FOR WEST TEXAS,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREDICTED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH, AND FOR PARTS OF NORTH
DAKOTA AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST
LIKELY FOR ALASKA WITH RIDGING PREDICTED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.

ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SPLIT STREAM.
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, AND COASTAL
AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND TOOLS.

FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20080526 - 19720506 - 19710605 - 19890602 - 19630520


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20080526 - 19720505 - 19890602 - 20090604 - 19950502


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 28 - JUN 01, 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 30 - JUN 05, 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$





000
FXUS06 KWBC 221902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 28 - JUN 01, 2015

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. SPLIT-FLOW IS PREDICTED OVER THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA WITH A RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE U.S. SOUTHWEST. A TROUGH
IS PREDICTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS HIGHER OVER THE WEST IN THE
MODELS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THERE IS CONSENSUS AMONG
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN PREDICTING ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY IN A SMALL AREA OF WESTERN TEXAS,
WHILE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND PRECIPITATION. THERE ARE
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN U.S.,
CONSISTENT WITH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA LEADS TO INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEST AND ALASKA.

THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE EAST LEADS
TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS,
WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY IN COASTAL REGIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER FROM NORTH DAKOTA TO LAKE SUPERIOR, AS WELL AS
FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST IN THE SOUTHEAST, AS INDICATED BY REFORECAST CALIBRATED
PROBABILITIES FROM THE NCEP GEFS AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES.

THE PROBABILITY OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ENHANCED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH, WHILE BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE,
UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
AND 35% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AND SURFACE TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 30 - JUN 05, 2015

DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, MODELS SOMEWHAT PERSIST THE CIRCULATION PATTERN OF
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST, WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND LARGER ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER ALASKA. MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT TROUGHS
OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, EASTERN CANADA, AND THE U.S. SOUTHWEST, AND RIDGES
OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. IS
FORECAST TO BE UNDER ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE U.S. WEST, AS WELL AS FOR
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, UNDER ABOVE-NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHTS.
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED FOR WEST TEXAS,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREDICTED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH, AND FOR PARTS OF NORTH
DAKOTA AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST
LIKELY FOR ALASKA WITH RIDGING PREDICTED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.

ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SPLIT STREAM.
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, AND COASTAL
AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND TOOLS.

FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20080526 - 19720506 - 19710605 - 19890602 - 19630520


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20080526 - 19720505 - 19890602 - 20090604 - 19950502


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 28 - JUN 01, 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 30 - JUN 05, 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   N    A     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 221600
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VALID 12Z MON MAY 25 2015 - 12Z FRI MAY 29 2015

OVERVIEW...

THE LARGE BLOCK INFLUENCING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO
SHRINK AND WEAKEN EARLY THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH THE
WESTERLIES BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LIGHTER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE U.S.  AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH PATTERN TRANSITIONS...MODELS
SHOW A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH/
STRUCTURE OF THE TRANSITION THAT SHOWS ITSELF IN ABOVE NORMAL
SOLUTION SPREAD COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

MODEL PREFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY...

THE TRANSITIONAL PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED HIGH SOLUTION SPREAD
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...THE PREFERENCE IS MOSTLY TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
SPECIFICALLY A BLEND OF THEM TO INCORPORATE THE LARGEST POSSIBLE
SOLUTION ENVELOPE.  THE IMPACTS OF AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH IS
SIGNIFICANT IN TWO WAYS.  THE FIRST WAY IS TO ADDRESS THE SPREAD
WITH PERTURBATIONS...WHICH IS VERY USEFUL AND INCREASES FORECAST
CONTINUITY.  UNFORTUNATELY...THE FLIP SIDE IS MORE AMBIGUITY WITH
THE DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...AND THEREFORE THE FORECAST IS ALSO
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...SOME LIKELY EXCESSIVE...WILL SPREAD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES.  WITH THE TROUGH ALSO SLOWLY WEAKENING
AND LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...RAIN IN THE WEST SHOULD GRADUALLY
LESSEN AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH TIME.  MEANWHILE...THE EAST
COAST WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING TREND IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
EXPANDING BERMUDA HIGH...WITH THE SOUTHEAST ALSO REMAINING MOSTLY
DRY.

JAMES

$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 221600
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VALID 12Z MON MAY 25 2015 - 12Z FRI MAY 29 2015

OVERVIEW...

THE LARGE BLOCK INFLUENCING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO
SHRINK AND WEAKEN EARLY THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH THE
WESTERLIES BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LIGHTER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE U.S.  AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH PATTERN TRANSITIONS...MODELS
SHOW A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH/
STRUCTURE OF THE TRANSITION THAT SHOWS ITSELF IN ABOVE NORMAL
SOLUTION SPREAD COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

MODEL PREFERENCES AND UNCERTAINTY...

THE TRANSITIONAL PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED HIGH SOLUTION SPREAD
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE.
THEREFORE...THE PREFERENCE IS MOSTLY TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND
SPECIFICALLY A BLEND OF THEM TO INCORPORATE THE LARGEST POSSIBLE
SOLUTION ENVELOPE.  THE IMPACTS OF AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH IS
SIGNIFICANT IN TWO WAYS.  THE FIRST WAY IS TO ADDRESS THE SPREAD
WITH PERTURBATIONS...WHICH IS VERY USEFUL AND INCREASES FORECAST
CONTINUITY.  UNFORTUNATELY...THE FLIP SIDE IS MORE AMBIGUITY WITH
THE DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...AND THEREFORE THE FORECAST IS ALSO
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...SOME LIKELY EXCESSIVE...WILL SPREAD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES.  WITH THE TROUGH ALSO SLOWLY WEAKENING
AND LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...RAIN IN THE WEST SHOULD GRADUALLY
LESSEN AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH TIME.  MEANWHILE...THE EAST
COAST WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING TREND IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
EXPANDING BERMUDA HIGH...WITH THE SOUTHEAST ALSO REMAINING MOSTLY
DRY.

JAMES

$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 221241
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
841 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAY 22 AT
06UTC: AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS STILL WELL
ESTABLISHED ON A HIGH THE CENTERS TO THE EAST OF THE GUIANAS. THIS
RIDGE EXTENDS OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA INTO CENTRAL-WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. A LOW CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA...PRESSES AGAINST THIS RIDGE
RESULTING IN A JET MAXIMA WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW OVER AND JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA...UNDER THIS FLOW
PATTERN...IS ADVECTING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BELOW 850 HPA...WHICH IS LIMITING THE
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AT UPPER LEVELS...A DRY AIR MASS DOMINATES BETWEEN 925
AND 500 HPA. WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK WITH SPEEDS BELOW 15KT AND FROM
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY STEER THE UPPER FLOW FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. JET
MAXIMA ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...TO DISSIPATE BY
SUNDAY. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE REGION WILL LIE IN THE UPPER
CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE JET MAXIMA. THIS WILL CONTINUE LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS IS TO LIMIT THERMAL HEATING TO SOME EXTENT...THE DIURNAL
CYCLE WILL DOMINATE WITH ACTIVITY BUILDING OVER THE CORDILLERA AND
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THESE ATMOSPHERIC
DYNAMICS AND STABILITY/VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF
MOISTURE...EXPECTING LIGHT MORNING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
PUERTO RICO...AND ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN PART DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATIONS...THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION WRF
AGREE WITH EXPECTATIONS...AS THEY ALL SUGGEST RATHER LIGHT AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO
ENTERING THE AREA...YET THE SAL LAYER WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG TO FULLY TAMPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATIONS...EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15MM. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.
NO WET PATTERN IN SIGHT. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN DEEP-LAYER STABILITY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND DRY AIR AT MID-LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST...TO
SUSTAIN THE CURRENTLY UNUSUALLY DRY PATTERN FOR LATE MAY.

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
SAMUEL...MDS (SURINAME)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 221241
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
841 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAY 22 AT
06UTC: AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS STILL WELL
ESTABLISHED ON A HIGH THE CENTERS TO THE EAST OF THE GUIANAS. THIS
RIDGE EXTENDS OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA INTO CENTRAL-WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. A LOW CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA...PRESSES AGAINST THIS RIDGE
RESULTING IN A JET MAXIMA WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW OVER AND JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA...UNDER THIS FLOW
PATTERN...IS ADVECTING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BELOW 850 HPA...WHICH IS LIMITING THE
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AT UPPER LEVELS...A DRY AIR MASS DOMINATES BETWEEN 925
AND 500 HPA. WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK WITH SPEEDS BELOW 15KT AND FROM
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY STEER THE UPPER FLOW FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. JET
MAXIMA ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...TO DISSIPATE BY
SUNDAY. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE REGION WILL LIE IN THE UPPER
CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE JET MAXIMA. THIS WILL CONTINUE LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS IS TO LIMIT THERMAL HEATING TO SOME EXTENT...THE DIURNAL
CYCLE WILL DOMINATE WITH ACTIVITY BUILDING OVER THE CORDILLERA AND
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THESE ATMOSPHERIC
DYNAMICS AND STABILITY/VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF
MOISTURE...EXPECTING LIGHT MORNING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
PUERTO RICO...AND ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN PART DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATIONS...THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION WRF
AGREE WITH EXPECTATIONS...AS THEY ALL SUGGEST RATHER LIGHT AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO
ENTERING THE AREA...YET THE SAL LAYER WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG TO FULLY TAMPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATIONS...EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15MM. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.
NO WET PATTERN IN SIGHT. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN DEEP-LAYER STABILITY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND DRY AIR AT MID-LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST...TO
SUSTAIN THE CURRENTLY UNUSUALLY DRY PATTERN FOR LATE MAY.

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
SAMUEL...MDS (SURINAME)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 221241
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
841 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAY 22 AT
06UTC: AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS STILL WELL
ESTABLISHED ON A HIGH THE CENTERS TO THE EAST OF THE GUIANAS. THIS
RIDGE EXTENDS OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA INTO CENTRAL-WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. A LOW CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA...PRESSES AGAINST THIS RIDGE
RESULTING IN A JET MAXIMA WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW OVER AND JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA...UNDER THIS FLOW
PATTERN...IS ADVECTING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BELOW 850 HPA...WHICH IS LIMITING THE
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AT UPPER LEVELS...A DRY AIR MASS DOMINATES BETWEEN 925
AND 500 HPA. WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK WITH SPEEDS BELOW 15KT AND FROM
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY STEER THE UPPER FLOW FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. JET
MAXIMA ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...TO DISSIPATE BY
SUNDAY. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE REGION WILL LIE IN THE UPPER
CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE JET MAXIMA. THIS WILL CONTINUE LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS IS TO LIMIT THERMAL HEATING TO SOME EXTENT...THE DIURNAL
CYCLE WILL DOMINATE WITH ACTIVITY BUILDING OVER THE CORDILLERA AND
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THESE ATMOSPHERIC
DYNAMICS AND STABILITY/VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF
MOISTURE...EXPECTING LIGHT MORNING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
PUERTO RICO...AND ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN PART DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATIONS...THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION WRF
AGREE WITH EXPECTATIONS...AS THEY ALL SUGGEST RATHER LIGHT AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO
ENTERING THE AREA...YET THE SAL LAYER WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG TO FULLY TAMPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATIONS...EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15MM. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.
NO WET PATTERN IN SIGHT. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN DEEP-LAYER STABILITY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND DRY AIR AT MID-LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST...TO
SUSTAIN THE CURRENTLY UNUSUALLY DRY PATTERN FOR LATE MAY.

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
SAMUEL...MDS (SURINAME)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 221241
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
841 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAY 22 AT
06UTC: AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS STILL WELL
ESTABLISHED ON A HIGH THE CENTERS TO THE EAST OF THE GUIANAS. THIS
RIDGE EXTENDS OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA INTO CENTRAL-WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. A LOW CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA...PRESSES AGAINST THIS RIDGE
RESULTING IN A JET MAXIMA WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW OVER AND JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA...UNDER THIS FLOW
PATTERN...IS ADVECTING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BELOW 850 HPA...WHICH IS LIMITING THE
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE AT UPPER LEVELS...A DRY AIR MASS DOMINATES BETWEEN 925
AND 500 HPA. WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK WITH SPEEDS BELOW 15KT AND FROM
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY STEER THE UPPER FLOW FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. JET
MAXIMA ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...TO DISSIPATE BY
SUNDAY. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE REGION WILL LIE IN THE UPPER
CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE JET MAXIMA. THIS WILL CONTINUE LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS IS TO LIMIT THERMAL HEATING TO SOME EXTENT...THE DIURNAL
CYCLE WILL DOMINATE WITH ACTIVITY BUILDING OVER THE CORDILLERA AND
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THESE ATMOSPHERIC
DYNAMICS AND STABILITY/VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF
MOISTURE...EXPECTING LIGHT MORNING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
PUERTO RICO...AND ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN PART DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATIONS...THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION WRF
AGREE WITH EXPECTATIONS...AS THEY ALL SUGGEST RATHER LIGHT AMOUNTS
ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO
ENTERING THE AREA...YET THE SAL LAYER WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG TO FULLY TAMPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATIONS...EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15MM. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.
NO WET PATTERN IN SIGHT. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN DEEP-LAYER STABILITY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND DRY AIR AT MID-LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST...TO
SUSTAIN THE CURRENTLY UNUSUALLY DRY PATTERN FOR LATE MAY.

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
SAMUEL...MDS (SURINAME)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 220729
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
329 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VALID 12Z FRI MAY 22 2015 - 12Z SUN MAY 24 2015

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  THE BOUNDARY WILL
AID IN FOCUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.  MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AID IN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SATURDAY EVENING.  THE
ENERGY ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
WANE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS TO RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
WHILE DISSIPATING OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON
FRIDAY.


ZIEGENFELDER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 220729
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
329 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VALID 12Z FRI MAY 22 2015 - 12Z SUN MAY 24 2015

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  THE BOUNDARY WILL
AID IN FOCUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.  MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AID IN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY SATURDAY EVENING.  THE
ENERGY ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
WANE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS TO RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
WHILE DISSIPATING OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON
FRIDAY.


ZIEGENFELDER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 220654
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VALID 12Z MON MAY 25 2015 - 12Z FRI MAY 29 2015

...OVERVIEW...
THE LOWER 48 WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN A TRANSITION PERIOD
BETWEEN DAYS 4-6 --- AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
ARE TEMPORARILY ALTERED AND INFLUENCED BY A SERIES OF UNRELATED
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURES. IN THE WEST---THE RIDGE IS INFLUENCED BY
A DEEP TROUGH MIGRATING FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF ALASKA. AND IN THE EAST--- A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ---
ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC--- MIGRATES INTO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIA.

...MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE 21/12Z GFS/ECMWF MAINTAIN A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE---AND BOTH SUPPORT THE GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE APPALACHIANS.
LIKEWISE---THEY ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
FROM FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE PAST TWO OR THREE WPC
FORECAST CYCLES HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED AN ECENS/GEFS BLEND AND
COULD NOT FIND FAULT IN CONTINUING THIS TRAIN OF THOUGHT THIS
MORNING.

...UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
BETWEEN DAYS 4-6 --- THE PATTERN IS IN A BRIEF TRANSITION AND THE
UNCERTAINTY LIES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGE...ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA --- UNDERNEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE... AND EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UNUSUALLY-ACTIVE EASTERN PACIFIC
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AXIS BETWEEN 20N-30N.

IN THE MIDWEST AND EAST --- THE CHALLENGE IS WITH TRAJECTORY AND
DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MIGRATION (DAYS 4-6) FROM THE PLAINS TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THEN CONSOLIDATION OF A COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE CYCLONE MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES-OHIO
VALLEY AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND THE FRONT`S ABILITY TO TEMPER THE HEAT/HUMIDITY
UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE. ECMWF GUIDANCE APPEARED TO BE A
GOOD DEAL WARMER THAN THE GFS --- AND LOCAL/REGIONAL FORECASTER
PREFERENCES MAY ADD VALUE HERE.

IN THE WEST---THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
CONSOLIDATES ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE PANHANDLE
AND COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. AND TO COMPLICATE MATTERS --- THE
PERSISTENCE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN IN THE EAST PAC --- ALONG 140W
BETWEEN 20N AND 40N WILL BE EMBEDDED WITH CUTOFF MID-LEVEL
ENERGY---ALLOWING A SECOND ENTRY POINT FOR MOISTURE TO MIGRATE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
A SUMMER-LIKE AIRMASS AND `FEEL` ARE EXPECTED BENEATH THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST.

FOR THE PLAINS AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
--- AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MID-LEVEL
ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE GREAT
BASIN. A CONSOLIDATED SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE
INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND AND WEAKEN AS IT
REACHES THE APPALACHIANS AND LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.

UNSETTLED IN THE WEST...WITH A COOLER...ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT
EXPECTED TO  DIRECT UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO WEST-FACING AND
SOUTHWEST-FACING SLOPES.

VOJTESAK

$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 220654
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VALID 12Z MON MAY 25 2015 - 12Z FRI MAY 29 2015

...OVERVIEW...
THE LOWER 48 WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN A TRANSITION PERIOD
BETWEEN DAYS 4-6 --- AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
ARE TEMPORARILY ALTERED AND INFLUENCED BY A SERIES OF UNRELATED
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURES. IN THE WEST---THE RIDGE IS INFLUENCED BY
A DEEP TROUGH MIGRATING FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF ALASKA. AND IN THE EAST--- A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ---
ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC--- MIGRATES INTO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIA.

...MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE 21/12Z GFS/ECMWF MAINTAIN A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE---AND BOTH SUPPORT THE GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE APPALACHIANS.
LIKEWISE---THEY ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
FROM FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE PAST TWO OR THREE WPC
FORECAST CYCLES HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED AN ECENS/GEFS BLEND AND
COULD NOT FIND FAULT IN CONTINUING THIS TRAIN OF THOUGHT THIS
MORNING.

...UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
BETWEEN DAYS 4-6 --- THE PATTERN IS IN A BRIEF TRANSITION AND THE
UNCERTAINTY LIES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGE...ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA --- UNDERNEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE... AND EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UNUSUALLY-ACTIVE EASTERN PACIFIC
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AXIS BETWEEN 20N-30N.

IN THE MIDWEST AND EAST --- THE CHALLENGE IS WITH TRAJECTORY AND
DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MIGRATION (DAYS 4-6) FROM THE PLAINS TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THEN CONSOLIDATION OF A COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE CYCLONE MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES-OHIO
VALLEY AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND THE FRONT`S ABILITY TO TEMPER THE HEAT/HUMIDITY
UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE. ECMWF GUIDANCE APPEARED TO BE A
GOOD DEAL WARMER THAN THE GFS --- AND LOCAL/REGIONAL FORECASTER
PREFERENCES MAY ADD VALUE HERE.

IN THE WEST---THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
CONSOLIDATES ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE PANHANDLE
AND COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. AND TO COMPLICATE MATTERS --- THE
PERSISTENCE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN IN THE EAST PAC --- ALONG 140W
BETWEEN 20N AND 40N WILL BE EMBEDDED WITH CUTOFF MID-LEVEL
ENERGY---ALLOWING A SECOND ENTRY POINT FOR MOISTURE TO MIGRATE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
A SUMMER-LIKE AIRMASS AND `FEEL` ARE EXPECTED BENEATH THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST.

FOR THE PLAINS AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
--- AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MID-LEVEL
ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE GREAT
BASIN. A CONSOLIDATED SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE
INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND AND WEAKEN AS IT
REACHES THE APPALACHIANS AND LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.

UNSETTLED IN THE WEST...WITH A COOLER...ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT
EXPECTED TO  DIRECT UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO WEST-FACING AND
SOUTHWEST-FACING SLOPES.

VOJTESAK

$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 220654
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VALID 12Z MON MAY 25 2015 - 12Z FRI MAY 29 2015

...OVERVIEW...
THE LOWER 48 WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN A TRANSITION PERIOD
BETWEEN DAYS 4-6 --- AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
ARE TEMPORARILY ALTERED AND INFLUENCED BY A SERIES OF UNRELATED
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURES. IN THE WEST---THE RIDGE IS INFLUENCED BY
A DEEP TROUGH MIGRATING FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF ALASKA. AND IN THE EAST--- A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ---
ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC--- MIGRATES INTO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIA.

...MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE 21/12Z GFS/ECMWF MAINTAIN A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE---AND BOTH SUPPORT THE GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE APPALACHIANS.
LIKEWISE---THEY ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
FROM FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE PAST TWO OR THREE WPC
FORECAST CYCLES HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED AN ECENS/GEFS BLEND AND
COULD NOT FIND FAULT IN CONTINUING THIS TRAIN OF THOUGHT THIS
MORNING.

...UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
BETWEEN DAYS 4-6 --- THE PATTERN IS IN A BRIEF TRANSITION AND THE
UNCERTAINTY LIES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGE...ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA --- UNDERNEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE... AND EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UNUSUALLY-ACTIVE EASTERN PACIFIC
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AXIS BETWEEN 20N-30N.

IN THE MIDWEST AND EAST --- THE CHALLENGE IS WITH TRAJECTORY AND
DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MIGRATION (DAYS 4-6) FROM THE PLAINS TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THEN CONSOLIDATION OF A COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE CYCLONE MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES-OHIO
VALLEY AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND THE FRONT`S ABILITY TO TEMPER THE HEAT/HUMIDITY
UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE. ECMWF GUIDANCE APPEARED TO BE A
GOOD DEAL WARMER THAN THE GFS --- AND LOCAL/REGIONAL FORECASTER
PREFERENCES MAY ADD VALUE HERE.

IN THE WEST---THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
CONSOLIDATES ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE PANHANDLE
AND COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. AND TO COMPLICATE MATTERS --- THE
PERSISTENCE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN IN THE EAST PAC --- ALONG 140W
BETWEEN 20N AND 40N WILL BE EMBEDDED WITH CUTOFF MID-LEVEL
ENERGY---ALLOWING A SECOND ENTRY POINT FOR MOISTURE TO MIGRATE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
A SUMMER-LIKE AIRMASS AND `FEEL` ARE EXPECTED BENEATH THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST.

FOR THE PLAINS AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
--- AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MID-LEVEL
ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE GREAT
BASIN. A CONSOLIDATED SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE
INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND AND WEAKEN AS IT
REACHES THE APPALACHIANS AND LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.

UNSETTLED IN THE WEST...WITH A COOLER...ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT
EXPECTED TO  DIRECT UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO WEST-FACING AND
SOUTHWEST-FACING SLOPES.

VOJTESAK

$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 220654
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
253 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VALID 12Z MON MAY 25 2015 - 12Z FRI MAY 29 2015

...OVERVIEW...
THE LOWER 48 WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN A TRANSITION PERIOD
BETWEEN DAYS 4-6 --- AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
ARE TEMPORARILY ALTERED AND INFLUENCED BY A SERIES OF UNRELATED
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FEATURES. IN THE WEST---THE RIDGE IS INFLUENCED BY
A DEEP TROUGH MIGRATING FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF ALASKA. AND IN THE EAST--- A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ---
ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC--- MIGRATES INTO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIA.

...MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE 21/12Z GFS/ECMWF MAINTAIN A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THROUGH
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE---AND BOTH SUPPORT THE GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN FROM THE PLAINS STATES TO THE APPALACHIANS.
LIKEWISE---THEY ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
FROM FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE PAST TWO OR THREE WPC
FORECAST CYCLES HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED AN ECENS/GEFS BLEND AND
COULD NOT FIND FAULT IN CONTINUING THIS TRAIN OF THOUGHT THIS
MORNING.

...UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
BETWEEN DAYS 4-6 --- THE PATTERN IS IN A BRIEF TRANSITION AND THE
UNCERTAINTY LIES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGE...ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA --- UNDERNEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE... AND EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UNUSUALLY-ACTIVE EASTERN PACIFIC
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM AXIS BETWEEN 20N-30N.

IN THE MIDWEST AND EAST --- THE CHALLENGE IS WITH TRAJECTORY AND
DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MIGRATION (DAYS 4-6) FROM THE PLAINS TO
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THEN CONSOLIDATION OF A COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE CYCLONE MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES-OHIO
VALLEY AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND THE FRONT`S ABILITY TO TEMPER THE HEAT/HUMIDITY
UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE. ECMWF GUIDANCE APPEARED TO BE A
GOOD DEAL WARMER THAN THE GFS --- AND LOCAL/REGIONAL FORECASTER
PREFERENCES MAY ADD VALUE HERE.

IN THE WEST---THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
CONSOLIDATES ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE PANHANDLE
AND COASTAL BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IMPACTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. AND TO COMPLICATE MATTERS --- THE
PERSISTENCE OF A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN IN THE EAST PAC --- ALONG 140W
BETWEEN 20N AND 40N WILL BE EMBEDDED WITH CUTOFF MID-LEVEL
ENERGY---ALLOWING A SECOND ENTRY POINT FOR MOISTURE TO MIGRATE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
A SUMMER-LIKE AIRMASS AND `FEEL` ARE EXPECTED BENEATH THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST.

FOR THE PLAINS AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
--- AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MID-LEVEL
ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BROAD TROUGH IN THE GREAT
BASIN. A CONSOLIDATED SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE
INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND AND WEAKEN AS IT
REACHES THE APPALACHIANS AND LOWER MS VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.

UNSETTLED IN THE WEST...WITH A COOLER...ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT
EXPECTED TO  DIRECT UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO WEST-FACING AND
SOUTHWEST-FACING SLOPES.

VOJTESAK

$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 212122
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
521 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

VALID 00Z FRI MAY 22 2015 - 00Z SUN MAY 24 2015

***HIGH QUALITY AIRMASS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY***

***HEAVY RAIN AND STORMY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS***

***SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.***

THE COOL AND REFRESHING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
A FEW MORE DAYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.  THE DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY IS NOW MOVING OFFSHORE WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA, MORE BAD WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE FLOWING NORTHWARD AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST.  FLOODING REMAINS A SERIOUS CONCERN FOR THESE AREAS
GIVEN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND RIVERS OVERFLOWING THEIR BANKS.
 SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE WESTERN U.S., THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
INLAND PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
SNOW IS LIKELY FOR THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN RANGES, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 212122
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
521 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

VALID 00Z FRI MAY 22 2015 - 00Z SUN MAY 24 2015

***HIGH QUALITY AIRMASS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY***

***HEAVY RAIN AND STORMY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS***

***SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.***

THE COOL AND REFRESHING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
A FEW MORE DAYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.  THE DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY IS NOW MOVING OFFSHORE WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA, MORE BAD WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE FLOWING NORTHWARD AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST.  FLOODING REMAINS A SERIOUS CONCERN FOR THESE AREAS
GIVEN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND RIVERS OVERFLOWING THEIR BANKS.
 SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

FOR THE WESTERN U.S., THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM
INLAND PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA TO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
SNOW IS LIKELY FOR THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN RANGES, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 212059
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
458 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

VALID 00Z FRI MAY 22 2015 - 00Z SUN MAY 24 2015

***HIGH QUALITY AIRMASS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY***

***HEAVY RAIN AND STORMY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS***

***SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.***

THE COOL AND REFRESHING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
A FEW MORE DAYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.  THE DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY IS NOW MOVING OFFSHORE WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA, MORE BAD WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  FLOODING REMAINS A SERIOUS CONCERN FOR
THESE AREAS GIVEN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND RIVERS OVERFLOWING
THEIR BANKS.

HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 212059
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
458 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

VALID 00Z FRI MAY 22 2015 - 00Z SUN MAY 24 2015

***HIGH QUALITY AIRMASS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY***

***HEAVY RAIN AND STORMY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS***

***SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.***

THE COOL AND REFRESHING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
A FEW MORE DAYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.  THE DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY IS NOW MOVING OFFSHORE WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA, MORE BAD WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  FLOODING REMAINS A SERIOUS CONCERN FOR
THESE AREAS GIVEN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND RIVERS OVERFLOWING
THEIR BANKS.

HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 212059
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
458 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

VALID 00Z FRI MAY 22 2015 - 00Z SUN MAY 24 2015

***HIGH QUALITY AIRMASS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY***

***HEAVY RAIN AND STORMY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS***

***SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.***

THE COOL AND REFRESHING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
A FEW MORE DAYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.  THE DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION AND THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY IS NOW MOVING OFFSHORE WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA, MORE BAD WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  FLOODING REMAINS A SERIOUS CONCERN FOR
THESE AREAS GIVEN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND RIVERS OVERFLOWING
THEIR BANKS.

HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 212032
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
431 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

DISCUSSION FROM MAY 21/12 UTC: MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO
EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE SOUTHERN US STATES. CUT OFF LOW
FORMS OVER THE PACIFIC AS THE NORTHERN PART OF LONGWAVE TROUGH
BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH SOUTHERN END. RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD/NORTHWESTWARD
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

OVER MEXICO DIURNAL PATTERN WOULD BE ENHANCED BY THE VENTILATION
IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT. IN NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...INITIALLY...EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH THE RISK OF
MCS THROUGH FRIDAY...AS SYSTEM CURRENTLY AFFECTING SOUTH TEXAS
PROPAGATES INTO THE AREA. MAXIMA DECREASES TO 15-25MM/DAY
AFTERWARDS AS RIDGE IS DISPLACED SOUTH WITH THE ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER LOW INTO CALIFORNIA. ASSOCIATED JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
20-40MM/DAY. OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DIURNAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE
ENHANCED AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW DISPLACES RIDGE SOUTHWARD.
EXPECTING AND INCREASE IN MAXIMA FROM 15-20MM/DAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING TO 20-35MM/DAY ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE DISPLACED
RIDGE...COMBINED WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC...ALSO
ENHANCES DIURNAL PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO-NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA WHERE WE EXPECT MAXIMA INCREASING FROM 15-25MM/DAY ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TO 20-35 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

TO THE EAST...PROPAGATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FAVORABLE FOR
ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. OVER EASTERN
CUBA-JAMAICA-HISPANIOLA EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEPARTS AREA EXPECTING
A DECREASE IN MAXIMA TO 15-20MM/DAY OVER EASTERN CUBA...ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY OVER JAMAICA AND...ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY
OVER HISPANIOLA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SHORT-LIVED AND ILL-DEFINED SHEAR LINE FORMING IN THE AREA
EXPECTING AN INCREASE TO 15-25MM/DAY OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA
BY SUNDAY. OVER PUERTO RICO...DIURNAL PATTERN IS INHIBITED BY
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE AREA. EXPECTING
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...DECREASING TO
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH STRONGEST
CONVECTION CONSTRAINED TO NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST.

OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...CONVECTION WOULD BE SUPPRESSED BY THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) ENTERING DURING THURSDAY AND REMAINING IN
PLACE DURING THE WEEKEND. TO THE SOUTH...EASTERLY WAVES WILL AID
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY FROM GRENADA/ST VINCENT TO
THE SOUTH. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE SURGE WITH PROPAGATING
EW...EXPECTING AN INCREASE TO ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY OVER THE
REGION.

TO THE SOUTH OVER THE GUIANAS...INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE
ITCZ...STRONG BUT WANING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND SUCCESSIVE
EASTERLY WAVES WILL CONTINUE LEADING MODERATE...BUT GRADUALLY
DECREASING ACCUMULATIONS AS STRONGEST DIFFLUENCE MOVES AWAY INTO
WESTERN LOCATIONS. EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TEMPORARILY INCREASING TO
15-30MM/DAY... AS AN EASTERLY WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THE AREA.
AS EASTERLY WAVES AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROPAGATE
WESTWARD...INCREASED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AMAZON REGION IN VENEZUELA-COLOMBIA. EXPECTING MAXIMA OF
25-50MM/DAY OVER EASTERN-CENTRAL VENEZUELA THROUGH THE CYCLE. OVER
ANDEAN AND WESTERN COLOMBIA...EXPECTING A SLIGHT INCREASING TREND
FROM MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY TO 30-60MM/DAY AS THE SEVERAL
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLY WAVES CROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER WEST OVER SOUTHERN-CENTRAL AMERICA...ACTIVE CONVECTION
WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS WELL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...FAVORABLE VENTILATION AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA...AND EVENTUALLY THE ARRIVAL OF
EASTERLY WAVES. ALSO EXPECTING AN INCREASE FROM MAXIMA OF
25-50MM/DAY TO 30-60MM/DAY DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN INTERACTION WITH OROGRAPHY.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96        TYPE
SEE CHARTS

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
SAMUEL...MDS (SURINAME)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 212032
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
431 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

DISCUSSION FROM MAY 21/12 UTC: MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO
EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE SOUTHERN US STATES. CUT OFF LOW
FORMS OVER THE PACIFIC AS THE NORTHERN PART OF LONGWAVE TROUGH
BECOMES OUT OF PHASE WITH SOUTHERN END. RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD/NORTHWESTWARD
EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

OVER MEXICO DIURNAL PATTERN WOULD BE ENHANCED BY THE VENTILATION
IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT. IN NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...INITIALLY...EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH THE RISK OF
MCS THROUGH FRIDAY...AS SYSTEM CURRENTLY AFFECTING SOUTH TEXAS
PROPAGATES INTO THE AREA. MAXIMA DECREASES TO 15-25MM/DAY
AFTERWARDS AS RIDGE IS DISPLACED SOUTH WITH THE ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER LOW INTO CALIFORNIA. ASSOCIATED JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO
20-40MM/DAY. OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DIURNAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE
ENHANCED AS AFOREMENTIONED LOW DISPLACES RIDGE SOUTHWARD.
EXPECTING AND INCREASE IN MAXIMA FROM 15-20MM/DAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING TO 20-35MM/DAY ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE DISPLACED
RIDGE...COMBINED WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC...ALSO
ENHANCES DIURNAL PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO-NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA WHERE WE EXPECT MAXIMA INCREASING FROM 15-25MM/DAY ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TO 20-35 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

TO THE EAST...PROPAGATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FAVORABLE FOR
ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. OVER EASTERN
CUBA-JAMAICA-HISPANIOLA EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEPARTS AREA EXPECTING
A DECREASE IN MAXIMA TO 15-20MM/DAY OVER EASTERN CUBA...ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY OVER JAMAICA AND...ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY
OVER HISPANIOLA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SHORT-LIVED AND ILL-DEFINED SHEAR LINE FORMING IN THE AREA
EXPECTING AN INCREASE TO 15-25MM/DAY OVER EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA
BY SUNDAY. OVER PUERTO RICO...DIURNAL PATTERN IS INHIBITED BY
MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE AREA. EXPECTING
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...DECREASING TO
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH STRONGEST
CONVECTION CONSTRAINED TO NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST.

OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...CONVECTION WOULD BE SUPPRESSED BY THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) ENTERING DURING THURSDAY AND REMAINING IN
PLACE DURING THE WEEKEND. TO THE SOUTH...EASTERLY WAVES WILL AID
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY FROM GRENADA/ST VINCENT TO
THE SOUTH. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE SURGE WITH PROPAGATING
EW...EXPECTING AN INCREASE TO ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY OVER THE
REGION.

TO THE SOUTH OVER THE GUIANAS...INTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE
ITCZ...STRONG BUT WANING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AND SUCCESSIVE
EASTERLY WAVES WILL CONTINUE LEADING MODERATE...BUT GRADUALLY
DECREASING ACCUMULATIONS AS STRONGEST DIFFLUENCE MOVES AWAY INTO
WESTERN LOCATIONS. EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TEMPORARILY INCREASING TO
15-30MM/DAY... AS AN EASTERLY WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THE AREA.
AS EASTERLY WAVES AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE PROPAGATE
WESTWARD...INCREASED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AMAZON REGION IN VENEZUELA-COLOMBIA. EXPECTING MAXIMA OF
25-50MM/DAY OVER EASTERN-CENTRAL VENEZUELA THROUGH THE CYCLE. OVER
ANDEAN AND WESTERN COLOMBIA...EXPECTING A SLIGHT INCREASING TREND
FROM MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY TO 30-60MM/DAY AS THE SEVERAL
AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLY WAVES CROSS THE REGION.

FURTHER WEST OVER SOUTHERN-CENTRAL AMERICA...ACTIVE CONVECTION
WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS WELL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...FAVORABLE VENTILATION AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA...AND EVENTUALLY THE ARRIVAL OF
EASTERLY WAVES. ALSO EXPECTING AN INCREASE FROM MAXIMA OF
25-50MM/DAY TO 30-60MM/DAY DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN INTERACTION WITH OROGRAPHY.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96        TYPE
SEE CHARTS

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
SAMUEL...MDS (SURINAME)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXUS06 KWBC 211902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 27 - 31 2015

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. SPLIT-FLOW IS PREDICTED OVER THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA WITH A RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE U.S. SOUTHWEST. A TROUGH
IS PREDICTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS HIGHER OVER THE WEST IN THE
MODELS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THERE IS GREATER CONSENSUS
AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN PREDICTING THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY IN AN AREA FROM EASTERN ARIZONA TO
WESTERN TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A PREDICTED SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE EASTERN U.S., CONSISTENT WITH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. RIDGING
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA LEADS TO INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR PACIFIC COAST STATES, MONTANA AND ALASKA.

THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE EAST LEADS
TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS,
WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY IN COASTAL REGIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION UNDER NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW.

THE PROBABILITY OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ENHANCED FOR THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH, WHILE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST
LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AND SURFACE TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 29 - JUN 04, 2015

DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, MODELS SOMEWHAT PERSIST THE CIRCULATION PATTERN OF
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST, WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND LARGER ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER ALASKA. MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT TROUGHS
OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, EASTERN CANADA, AND THE U.S. SOUTHWEST, AND RIDGES
OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. IS
FORECAST TO BE UNDER ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE U.S. WEST, AS WELL AS FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ENHANCED FOR WEST TEXAS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREDICTED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR ALASKA WITH RIDGING PREDICTED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.

ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SPLIT STREAM.
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, AND COASTAL
AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND TOOLS.

FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20080525 - 19980526 - 19660603 - 19710604 - 19580604


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20080526 - 19980527 - 20090430 - 19660603 - 19710603


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 27 - 31 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      N    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     N    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    N    B     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 29 - JUN 04, 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$






000
FXUS06 KWBC 211902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 27 - 31 2015

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. SPLIT-FLOW IS PREDICTED OVER THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA WITH A RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE U.S. SOUTHWEST. A TROUGH
IS PREDICTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS HIGHER OVER THE WEST IN THE
MODELS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THERE IS GREATER CONSENSUS
AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN PREDICTING THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY IN AN AREA FROM EASTERN ARIZONA TO
WESTERN TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A PREDICTED SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE EASTERN U.S., CONSISTENT WITH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. RIDGING
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA LEADS TO INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR PACIFIC COAST STATES, MONTANA AND ALASKA.

THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE EAST LEADS
TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS,
WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY IN COASTAL REGIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION UNDER NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW.

THE PROBABILITY OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ENHANCED FOR THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH, WHILE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST
LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AND SURFACE TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 29 - JUN 04, 2015

DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, MODELS SOMEWHAT PERSIST THE CIRCULATION PATTERN OF
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST, WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND LARGER ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER ALASKA. MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT TROUGHS
OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, EASTERN CANADA, AND THE U.S. SOUTHWEST, AND RIDGES
OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. IS
FORECAST TO BE UNDER ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE U.S. WEST, AS WELL AS FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ENHANCED FOR WEST TEXAS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREDICTED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR ALASKA WITH RIDGING PREDICTED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.

ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SPLIT STREAM.
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, AND COASTAL
AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND TOOLS.

FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20080525 - 19980526 - 19660603 - 19710604 - 19580604


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20080526 - 19980527 - 20090430 - 19660603 - 19710603


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 27 - 31 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      N    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     N    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    N    B     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 29 - JUN 04, 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$






000
FXUS06 KWBC 211902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 27 - 31 2015

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. SPLIT-FLOW IS PREDICTED OVER THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA WITH A RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER WESTERN CANADA AND A
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE U.S. SOUTHWEST. A TROUGH
IS PREDICTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS HIGHER OVER THE WEST IN THE
MODELS WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THERE IS GREATER CONSENSUS
AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN PREDICTING THE RIDGE OVER THE EAST.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY IN AN AREA FROM EASTERN ARIZONA TO
WESTERN TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A PREDICTED SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE EASTERN U.S., CONSISTENT WITH PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. RIDGING
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA LEADS TO INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR PACIFIC COAST STATES, MONTANA AND ALASKA.

THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE EAST LEADS
TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS,
WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY IN COASTAL REGIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION UNDER NORTH-WESTERLY FLOW.

THE PROBABILITY OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ENHANCED FOR THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH, WHILE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST
LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AND SURFACE TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 29 - JUN 04, 2015

DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, MODELS SOMEWHAT PERSIST THE CIRCULATION PATTERN OF
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST, WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AND LARGER ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER ALASKA. MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT TROUGHS
OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, EASTERN CANADA, AND THE U.S. SOUTHWEST, AND RIDGES
OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. IS
FORECAST TO BE UNDER ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE U.S. WEST, AS WELL AS FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ENHANCED FOR WEST TEXAS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREDICTED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR ALASKA WITH RIDGING PREDICTED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.

ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE SPLIT STREAM.
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, AND COASTAL
AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND TOOLS.

FORECASTER: DAN COLLINS

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20080525 - 19980526 - 19660603 - 19710604 - 19580604


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20080526 - 19980527 - 20090430 - 19660603 - 19710603


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 27 - 31 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      N    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     N    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    N    B     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 29 - JUN 04, 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$





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