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000
FXUS01 KWBC 201226
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
825 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VALID 12Z SAT SEP 20 2014 - 12Z MON SEP 22 2014

...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS...

...ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST...

THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND/TEXAS PANHANDLE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING REMAINS, AS REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
ODILE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
TEXAS---WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LONE STAR STATE. THIS
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE WAVE HAS
DEVELOPED ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT, AND WILL
SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK FROM THE OUTER BANKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE. CURRENT FORECASTS
INDICATE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE, BUT
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST SHORELINE.

ELSEWHERE, A SERIES OF PACIFIC DISTURBANCES WILL RACE ALONG THE
US-CANADIAN BORDER, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG ITS
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND REACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND---MEANWHILE ITS
LEADING EDGE PUSHES THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND COALESCES
WITH THE ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

VOJTESAK

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 201226
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
825 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VALID 12Z SAT SEP 20 2014 - 12Z MON SEP 22 2014

...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS...

...ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST...

THE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND/TEXAS PANHANDLE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING REMAINS, AS REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
ODILE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
TEXAS---WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LONE STAR STATE. THIS
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE WAVE HAS
DEVELOPED ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT, AND WILL
SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK FROM THE OUTER BANKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE. CURRENT FORECASTS
INDICATE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE, BUT
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST SHORELINE.

ELSEWHERE, A SERIES OF PACIFIC DISTURBANCES WILL RACE ALONG THE
US-CANADIAN BORDER, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG ITS
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND REACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND---MEANWHILE ITS
LEADING EDGE PUSHES THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND COALESCES
WITH THE ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

VOJTESAK

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 200838
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
437 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VALID 12Z SAT SEP 20 2014 - 12Z MON SEP 22 2014

...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS...

...ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST...

A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND/TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS---WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LONE STAR STATE. THIS STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ON THE
ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT, AND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE
OUTER BANKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE. CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE, BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF THE IMMEDIATE
EAST COAST SHORELINE.

ELSEWHERE, A SERIES OF PACIFIC DISTURBANCES WILL RACE ALONG THE
US-CANADIAN BORDER, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG ITS
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND REACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND---MEANWHILE ITS
LEADING EDGE PUSHES THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND COALESCES
WITH THE ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

VOJTESAK

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 200838
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
437 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VALID 12Z SAT SEP 20 2014 - 12Z MON SEP 22 2014

...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS...

...ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST...

A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND/TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS---WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LONE STAR STATE. THIS STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ON THE
ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT, AND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE
OUTER BANKS TO THE GULF OF MAINE. CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE, BUT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF THE IMMEDIATE
EAST COAST SHORELINE.

ELSEWHERE, A SERIES OF PACIFIC DISTURBANCES WILL RACE ALONG THE
US-CANADIAN BORDER, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG ITS
WEAKENING COLD FRONT. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND REACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD A DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND---MEANWHILE ITS
LEADING EDGE PUSHES THROUGH THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND COALESCES
WITH THE ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

VOJTESAK

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 200632
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VALID 12Z TUE SEP 23 2014 - 12Z SAT SEP 27 2014

...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...

AFTER A COUPLE RUNS OR SO OF REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE
GUIDANCE... THE 12Z CYCLE AND THUS FAR THE NEW 00Z CYCLE DEVELOP
SIGNIFICANT DIFFS IN SOLNS OVER THE PAC/WRN NOAM BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD.  THUS CONFIDENCE IN A PARTICULAR SCENARIO
DECLINES AFTER A MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN CONSENSUS OFFERS A REASONABLE
FCST FROM DAY 3 TUE INTO EARLY DAY 5 THU.  DOWNSTREAM FROM INITIAL
ERN PAC TROUGHING HGTS ARE FCST TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH OVER MOST OF
THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS THOUGH WITH TWO OR MORE WEAKNESSES... ONE
OVER/NEAR THE PLAINS CONTAINING ENERGY FROM A COMPACT NRN HIGH
PLAINS UPR FEATURE AND ANOTHER ONE OR MORE CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST.

THE DIVERGENCE SEEN OVER THE ERN PAC/WRN NOAM BY THU-SAT
ORIGINATES FROM DIFFS IN HANDLING AN UPR SYSTEM OVER THE SWRN
BERING SEA/WRN ALEUTIANS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THE 12Z ECMWF/EC
MEAN AND 12Z-00Z CMC/12Z CMC MEAN TREND STEADILY FASTER WITH THIS
FEATURE... ULTIMATELY FEEDING INTO A NEW ERN PAC TROUGH AND
EJECTING THE INITIAL ERN PAC TROUGH THROUGH THE WEST IN
PROGRESSIVE/FLATTER FASHION.  INTERESTINGLY THE ECMWF CLUSTER
REFLECTS A SOLN DEPICTED BY AN ISOLD ECMWF MEAN RUN FROM 36 HRS
AGO.  MEANWHILE THE GFS/GEFS RUNS AS WELL AS NEW 00Z UKMET THROUGH
LATE THU HOLD ONTO A SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED LEADING TROUGH JUST
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST BY LATE THU.

TELECONNECTIONS AND CONTINUITY PROVIDE SOME GUIDANCE FOR DECIDING
WHICH SCENARIO TO FOLLOW.  THE MOST COMMON ASPECT OF MULTI-DAY
MEANS BY D+8 IS A STRONG CORE OF POSITIVE HGT ANOMALIES W/SW OF
JAMES BAY... WITH TELECONS RELATIVE TO THIS FEATURE SUPPORTING A
MODERATE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WEST.  ALSO CONSENSUS
CONTINUITY HAD FAVORED A SOLN CLOSER TO THE CURRENT GFS/GEFS IDEA
BEFORE THE 12Z SOLNS DIVERGED.  THUS PREFS LEAN TO THE 12Z GEFS
MEAN AND 00Z/19 ECMWF MEAN BY DAYS 6-7... WITH JUST ENOUGH
BROADNESS TO THE TELECON-FAVORED WRN MEAN TROUGH TO PSBLY ALLOW
FOR A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSION THAN THE 18Z GEFS MEAN.

WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE OVER THE EAST FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD... UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS OF A PSBL WEAKNESS ALOFT
CONTINUES TO TEMPER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE SFC DETAILS NEAR THE
SERN/MID ATLC COAST.  CMC RUNS HAVE BEEN MOST EXTREME WHILE THE
00Z UKMET HAS TRENDED MUCH WEAKER RELATIVE TO ITS 12Z RUN.  AFTER
SPORADIC STRONGER RUNS... LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE CURRENTLY
SETTLED UPON ONLY MODEST INVERTED TROUGHING AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO
JUST OFF THE COAST.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

TROUGH ALOFT MOVING INTO THE WEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO AREAS AT LEAST FROM THE NRN HALF OF THE WEST COAST INTO
NRN ROCKIES... AND BASED ON CURRENT PREFS FARTHER SEWD OVER THE
WEST BY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS WELL.  BEST ENHANCEMENT SHOULD BE
ALONG THE NRN CA/PAC NW COAST.  MID LVL FEATURE OVER THE PLAINS
MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY HVY ACTIVITY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS PRIMARILY
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.  AREAS NEAR THE SRN HALF OF
THE EAST COAST AND ALONG MOST OF THE GULF COAST MAY SEE RNFL OF
VARYING INTENSITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.  EXPECT THE MOST
EXTREME ANOMALIES FOR TEMPS TO BE OF THE POSITIVE VARIETY ACROSS
THE NRN TIER AS SUPPORTED BY STRONG SRLY FLOW BETWEEN ERN CONUS
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE FRONT EMERGING INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATE
IN THE PERIOD... WITH SOME PLUS 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
LIKELY FOR MIN/MAX TEMPS MOST DAYS.

RAUSCH

$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 200632
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VALID 12Z TUE SEP 23 2014 - 12Z SAT SEP 27 2014

...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...

AFTER A COUPLE RUNS OR SO OF REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE
GUIDANCE... THE 12Z CYCLE AND THUS FAR THE NEW 00Z CYCLE DEVELOP
SIGNIFICANT DIFFS IN SOLNS OVER THE PAC/WRN NOAM BY THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD.  THUS CONFIDENCE IN A PARTICULAR SCENARIO
DECLINES AFTER A MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN CONSENSUS OFFERS A REASONABLE
FCST FROM DAY 3 TUE INTO EARLY DAY 5 THU.  DOWNSTREAM FROM INITIAL
ERN PAC TROUGHING HGTS ARE FCST TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH OVER MOST OF
THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS THOUGH WITH TWO OR MORE WEAKNESSES... ONE
OVER/NEAR THE PLAINS CONTAINING ENERGY FROM A COMPACT NRN HIGH
PLAINS UPR FEATURE AND ANOTHER ONE OR MORE CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST.

THE DIVERGENCE SEEN OVER THE ERN PAC/WRN NOAM BY THU-SAT
ORIGINATES FROM DIFFS IN HANDLING AN UPR SYSTEM OVER THE SWRN
BERING SEA/WRN ALEUTIANS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THE 12Z ECMWF/EC
MEAN AND 12Z-00Z CMC/12Z CMC MEAN TREND STEADILY FASTER WITH THIS
FEATURE... ULTIMATELY FEEDING INTO A NEW ERN PAC TROUGH AND
EJECTING THE INITIAL ERN PAC TROUGH THROUGH THE WEST IN
PROGRESSIVE/FLATTER FASHION.  INTERESTINGLY THE ECMWF CLUSTER
REFLECTS A SOLN DEPICTED BY AN ISOLD ECMWF MEAN RUN FROM 36 HRS
AGO.  MEANWHILE THE GFS/GEFS RUNS AS WELL AS NEW 00Z UKMET THROUGH
LATE THU HOLD ONTO A SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED LEADING TROUGH JUST
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST BY LATE THU.

TELECONNECTIONS AND CONTINUITY PROVIDE SOME GUIDANCE FOR DECIDING
WHICH SCENARIO TO FOLLOW.  THE MOST COMMON ASPECT OF MULTI-DAY
MEANS BY D+8 IS A STRONG CORE OF POSITIVE HGT ANOMALIES W/SW OF
JAMES BAY... WITH TELECONS RELATIVE TO THIS FEATURE SUPPORTING A
MODERATE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WEST.  ALSO CONSENSUS
CONTINUITY HAD FAVORED A SOLN CLOSER TO THE CURRENT GFS/GEFS IDEA
BEFORE THE 12Z SOLNS DIVERGED.  THUS PREFS LEAN TO THE 12Z GEFS
MEAN AND 00Z/19 ECMWF MEAN BY DAYS 6-7... WITH JUST ENOUGH
BROADNESS TO THE TELECON-FAVORED WRN MEAN TROUGH TO PSBLY ALLOW
FOR A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSION THAN THE 18Z GEFS MEAN.

WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE OVER THE EAST FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD... UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS OF A PSBL WEAKNESS ALOFT
CONTINUES TO TEMPER CONFIDENCE IN PRECISE SFC DETAILS NEAR THE
SERN/MID ATLC COAST.  CMC RUNS HAVE BEEN MOST EXTREME WHILE THE
00Z UKMET HAS TRENDED MUCH WEAKER RELATIVE TO ITS 12Z RUN.  AFTER
SPORADIC STRONGER RUNS... LATEST GFS/ECMWF RUNS HAVE CURRENTLY
SETTLED UPON ONLY MODEST INVERTED TROUGHING AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO
JUST OFF THE COAST.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

TROUGH ALOFT MOVING INTO THE WEST WILL BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO AREAS AT LEAST FROM THE NRN HALF OF THE WEST COAST INTO
NRN ROCKIES... AND BASED ON CURRENT PREFS FARTHER SEWD OVER THE
WEST BY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS WELL.  BEST ENHANCEMENT SHOULD BE
ALONG THE NRN CA/PAC NW COAST.  MID LVL FEATURE OVER THE PLAINS
MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY HVY ACTIVITY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS PRIMARILY
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.  AREAS NEAR THE SRN HALF OF
THE EAST COAST AND ALONG MOST OF THE GULF COAST MAY SEE RNFL OF
VARYING INTENSITY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.  EXPECT THE MOST
EXTREME ANOMALIES FOR TEMPS TO BE OF THE POSITIVE VARIETY ACROSS
THE NRN TIER AS SUPPORTED BY STRONG SRLY FLOW BETWEEN ERN CONUS
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE FRONT EMERGING INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATE
IN THE PERIOD... WITH SOME PLUS 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
LIKELY FOR MIN/MAX TEMPS MOST DAYS.

RAUSCH

$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 191958
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VALID 00Z SAT SEP 20 2014 - 00Z MON SEP 22 2014

...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS...

...ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FLORIDA AND THE EAST COAST...

REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER NEW MEXICO
AND TEXAS.  THIS BOUNTY OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THESE REGIONS.  THERE IS CURRENTLY A
MODERATE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
BIG BEND/TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY.  A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE NO REST FOR
THE WEARY THIS WEEKEND IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AND INTO KANSAS WILL RECEIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO.

A WAVE ON THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS DRAPED FROM TEXAS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL FORM OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY.  THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION WILL IGNITE ACROSS THE STATE OF
FLORIDA WITH THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATIONS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY EVENING, THE LOW
WILL TRACK UP TOWARDS THE COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONCENTRATE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST FROM GEORGIA
TO NEW ENGLAND.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TREK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND.  PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY, HOWEVER IT WILL BE QUICK
MOVING SO FLASH FLOODING IS NOT AS MUCH OF A THREAT.  COOLER,
DRIER AIR WILL SWIFTLY MOVE BEHIND THE FRONT IN ADDITION BRINGING
A TASTE OF FALL.

FANNING

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 191958
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VALID 00Z SAT SEP 20 2014 - 00Z MON SEP 22 2014

...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS...

...ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FLORIDA AND THE EAST COAST...

REMNANT MOISTURE FROM ODILE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER NEW MEXICO
AND TEXAS.  THIS BOUNTY OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THESE REGIONS.  THERE IS CURRENTLY A
MODERATE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
BIG BEND/TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY.  A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE NO REST FOR
THE WEARY THIS WEEKEND IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AND INTO KANSAS WILL RECEIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO.

A WAVE ON THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS DRAPED FROM TEXAS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL FORM OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY.  THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION WILL IGNITE ACROSS THE STATE OF
FLORIDA WITH THE HEAVIEST CONCENTRATIONS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY EVENING, THE LOW
WILL TRACK UP TOWARDS THE COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONCENTRATE MAINLY ALONG THE COAST FROM GEORGIA
TO NEW ENGLAND.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TREK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEKEND.  PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
HEAVIER AMOUNTS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY, HOWEVER IT WILL BE QUICK
MOVING SO FLASH FLOODING IS NOT AS MUCH OF A THREAT.  COOLER,
DRIER AIR WILL SWIFTLY MOVE BEHIND THE FRONT IN ADDITION BRINGING
A TASTE OF FALL.

FANNING

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS06 KWBC 191905
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI SEPTEMBER 19 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 25 - 29 2014

THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS OF 6-10 DAY
500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. MODELS AGREE ON THE PREDICTION
OF A TROUGH OVER ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM, MOST MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS WHILE RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
MODEL SPREAD IS LOWER TODAY RELATIVE TO THAT EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE IN TODAY`S OUTLOOK. TODAY`S OFFICIAL
500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.
NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FORECAST TROUGH. THE ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND MUCH OF THE GULF COAST
CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION AND BIAS
CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN
ALASKA NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ELEVATED FOR THE ALEUTIANS CONSISTENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ADJACENT
WATERS.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE ROCKIES
DUE TO A TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. AN ANTICIPATED FRONT AND
MEAN EASTERLY FLOW ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OVER FLORIDA. PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THERE ARE ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A
PREDICTED TROUGH. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF ALASKA NEAR AND WEST OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND
15% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 27 - OCT 03, 2014

DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, TODAY`S MODEL ENSEMBLES EXHIBIT HIGH SPREAD OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN INDICATING HIGH UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FORECAST A TROUGH OVER ALASKA.
RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW IS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEANS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS DUE, IN PART, TO LARGE VARIATIONS AMONG THE
COMPONENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEING AVERAGED TOGETHER. TODAY`S GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS
PREDICT A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND STRONG RIDGING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. DUE TO LARGE UNCERTAINTIES AMONG INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, TODAY`S
WEEK TWO MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS PRIMARILY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN CONUS DUE TO PREDICTED
RIDGING. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED
FOR PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PREDICTED TROUGH.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ELEVATED FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE
AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ENHANCED FOR THE ALEUTIANS CONSISTENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ADJACENT
WATERS.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ROCKIES, AND MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE ROCKIES IN THE MANUAL BLEND.
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
CONUS DUE TO PREDICTED MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS CONSISTENT WITH
NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA SIMILAR TO THAT PREDICTED IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 5% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO HIGH SPREAD AMONG TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS

FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 16

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19841002 - 19640914 - 19840914 - 19760902 - 19620919


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19640914 - 19841002 - 19620918 - 19840917 - 19800926


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 25 - 29 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   N    A
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      N    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        A    B     KENTUCKY    A    B
TENNESSEE   N    B     ALABAMA     N    N     NEW YORK    A    B
VERMONT     A    B     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       A    B
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    B
PENN        N    B     NEW JERSEY  N    B     W VIRGINIA  N    B
MARYLAND    N    B     DELAWARE    N    B     VIRGINIA    N    B
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     N    A
FL PNHDL    N    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  B    B
AK S INT    N    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 27 - OCT 03, 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      N    N
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     N    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    B
VERMONT     A    B     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       A    B
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$






000
FXUS06 KWBC 191905
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI SEPTEMBER 19 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 25 - 29 2014

THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS OF 6-10 DAY
500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER NORTH AMERICA AND VICINITY. MODELS AGREE ON THE PREDICTION
OF A TROUGH OVER ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM, MOST MODELS PREDICT A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS WHILE RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
MODEL SPREAD IS LOWER TODAY RELATIVE TO THAT EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE IN TODAY`S OUTLOOK. TODAY`S OFFICIAL
500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS.
NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FORECAST TROUGH. THE ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND MUCH OF THE GULF COAST
CONSISTENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION AND BIAS
CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN
ALASKA NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ELEVATED FOR THE ALEUTIANS CONSISTENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ADJACENT
WATERS.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE ROCKIES
DUE TO A TROUGH PREDICTED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. AN ANTICIPATED FRONT AND
MEAN EASTERLY FLOW ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OVER FLORIDA. PREDICTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAVORS BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THERE ARE ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AHEAD OF A
PREDICTED TROUGH. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF ALASKA NEAR AND WEST OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND
15% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 27 - OCT 03, 2014

DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, TODAY`S MODEL ENSEMBLES EXHIBIT HIGH SPREAD OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN INDICATING HIGH UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS. TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FORECAST A TROUGH OVER ALASKA.
RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE FLOW IS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEANS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS DUE, IN PART, TO LARGE VARIATIONS AMONG THE
COMPONENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEING AVERAGED TOGETHER. TODAY`S GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS
PREDICT A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND STRONG RIDGING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. DUE TO LARGE UNCERTAINTIES AMONG INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, TODAY`S
WEEK TWO MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS PRIMARILY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN CONUS DUE TO PREDICTED
RIDGING. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED
FOR PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PREDICTED TROUGH.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ELEVATED FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE
AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ENHANCED FOR THE ALEUTIANS CONSISTENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND WITH ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ADJACENT
WATERS.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ROCKIES, AND MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE ROCKIES IN THE MANUAL BLEND.
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
CONUS DUE TO PREDICTED MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS CONSISTENT WITH
NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA SIMILAR TO THAT PREDICTED IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 5% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO HIGH SPREAD AMONG TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MEMBERS

FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 16

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19841002 - 19640914 - 19840914 - 19760902 - 19620919


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19640914 - 19841002 - 19620918 - 19840917 - 19800926


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 25 - 29 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   N    A
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      N    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        A    B     KENTUCKY    A    B
TENNESSEE   N    B     ALABAMA     N    N     NEW YORK    A    B
VERMONT     A    B     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       A    B
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    B
PENN        N    B     NEW JERSEY  N    B     W VIRGINIA  N    B
MARYLAND    N    B     DELAWARE    N    B     VIRGINIA    N    B
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     N    A
FL PNHDL    N    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  B    B
AK S INT    N    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR SEP 27 - OCT 03, 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      N    N
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     N    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    B
VERMONT     A    B     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       A    B
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$





000
FXCA20 KWBC 191832
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AT 15 UTC TS POLO CENTERED NEAR 17.3N 105.7W...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 982 HPA...MOVING
TO THE WNW AT 6KT.

DISCUSSION FROM SEPTEMBER 19/00UTC: AT 250 HPA...A CLOSED HIGH
OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO ANCHORS A RIDGE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DOMAIN. THE RIDGE EXTENDS ON CONTINENTAL AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N
AND WEST OF 90W. AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE IS TO GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO/WESTERN USA. RIDGE ALOFT IS TO VENT DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS MEXICO...WITH ACTIVITY ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE TO
RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ON THE CENTRAL STATES OF MEXICO EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM...WHILE ON THE SOUTHERN STATES
OF MEXICO EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. THE BROAD RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONTINENT IS TO STEER TS
POLO WEST INTO THE PACIFIC. AS IT MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA LATER ON SATURDAY...OUTER BAND CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
AFFECT BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN USA AND MEXICO
SUSTAINS THE SOUTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN USA-FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST USA EARLY THIS MORNING
IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE LATER ON
TODAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS TO THEN INDUCE THE GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA/NORTHERN
YUCATAN LATER ON SATURDAY. AT LOW LEVELS THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A
TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA/NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. AS UPPER TROUGH PATTERN DEEPENS THE SURFACE TROUGH
IS TO THEN ALIGN FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN IS TO ALSO SUSTAIN AN INDUCED TROUGH THAT IS TO
RETROGRESS ACROSS BELIZE/QUINTANA ROO MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN.
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. THROUGH DAY 03 THIS DECREASES
TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. OVER CUBA EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION. OVER BELIZE-QUINTANA ROO/NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WHEN THE INVERTED TROUGH IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.

A WANING TUTT LOW LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
AXIS...WITH CLOSED CIRCULATION SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLES EXTENDING
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO NORTHEAST HONDURAS. UNDER INFLUENCE OF DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH...THE TUTT IS TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH...WEAKENING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE
CAYMAN ISLES THIS IS TO FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
WITH ACCUMULATION OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. ACROSS
NORTHEAST HONDURAS/NICARAGUA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ACROSS CUBA IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM LATER ON SUNDAY TO MONDAY
MORNING.

AS THE TUTT WEAKENS...THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ RETURNS TO ITS
CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS TO
THEN EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA-PANAMA TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.
ACROSS COSTA RICA/SOUTHERN NICARAGUA TO PANAMA IT IS TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. OVER
WESTERN-NORTHERN COLOMBIA INITIALLY EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. THIS DECREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. FURTHERMORE...A LOW
FORMED ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR 10N 90W. THIS IS TO MEANDER
WEST AS THE CYCLE PROGRESSES. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THIS IS TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN HONDURAS-EL
SALVADOR...TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. THROUGH SUNDAY ACTIVITY BUILDS WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA TO SOUTHERN CHIAPAS IN MEXICO...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.

ALSO AT 250 HPA...A WANING CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A TUTT TO THE EAST CENTERS
ON A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. A DEEPER/BETTER
ORGANIZED TUTT LOW CENTERS TO THE EAST NEAR 23N 48W. A BUILDING
CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW
TUTT NORTH OF THE LEEWARDS TO RETROGRESS TO PUERTO RICO EARLY ON
SATURDAY...WHERE IT IS TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
OTHER LOW MEANDERS WEST...AND IT IS TO MOVE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
LATER ON MONDAY/TUESDAY. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS AGREE ON THEIR
FORECAST OF AN INVERTED TROUGH MEANDERING WEST ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING...AND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
PULLING ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO THE MONA PASSAGE/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TUTT PATTERN ALOFT TO HELP SUSTAIN
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES.
ACROSS THE FRENCH/LEEWARD ISLANDS EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM...WHILE ACROSS PUERTO RICO
EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ACROSS
HISPANIOLA MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHEN
UNDER INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
49W     51W    53W    56W    58W    61W    63W    65W     TW
67W     71W    73W    76W    78W    80W    82W    84W     TW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 49W MOVES NORTH OF THE GUIANAS LATER ON
FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO THE NORTH. THE WAVE ENTERS
THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING LATE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WHERE IN INTERACTION WITH THE TUTT ALOFT IT IS TO
SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLES IT IS TO THEN FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH MID
MORNING ON SATURDAY...MEANWHILE FAVORING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IT ENTERS JAMAICA AROUND
NOONTIME ON SUNDAY...TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION AND
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ACROSS
NORTHWEST VENEZUELA-NORTHERN COLOMBIA THIS IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE OVER
PANAMA-COSTA RICA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-40MM.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 191832
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AT 15 UTC TS POLO CENTERED NEAR 17.3N 105.7W...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 982 HPA...MOVING
TO THE WNW AT 6KT.

DISCUSSION FROM SEPTEMBER 19/00UTC: AT 250 HPA...A CLOSED HIGH
OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO ANCHORS A RIDGE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DOMAIN. THE RIDGE EXTENDS ON CONTINENTAL AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N
AND WEST OF 90W. AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE IS TO GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO/WESTERN USA. RIDGE ALOFT IS TO VENT DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS MEXICO...WITH ACTIVITY ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE TO
RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ON THE CENTRAL STATES OF MEXICO EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM...WHILE ON THE SOUTHERN STATES
OF MEXICO EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. THE BROAD RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE CONTINENT IS TO STEER TS
POLO WEST INTO THE PACIFIC. AS IT MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA LATER ON SATURDAY...OUTER BAND CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO
AFFECT BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN USA AND MEXICO
SUSTAINS THE SOUTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN USA-FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST USA EARLY THIS MORNING
IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE LATER ON
TODAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS TO THEN INDUCE THE GRADUAL
AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA/NORTHERN
YUCATAN LATER ON SATURDAY. AT LOW LEVELS THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A
TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA/NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. AS UPPER TROUGH PATTERN DEEPENS THE SURFACE TROUGH
IS TO THEN ALIGN FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN IS TO ALSO SUSTAIN AN INDUCED TROUGH THAT IS TO
RETROGRESS ACROSS BELIZE/QUINTANA ROO MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN.
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. THROUGH DAY 03 THIS DECREASES
TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. OVER CUBA EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION. OVER BELIZE-QUINTANA ROO/NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WHEN THE INVERTED TROUGH IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.

A WANING TUTT LOW LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
AXIS...WITH CLOSED CIRCULATION SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLES EXTENDING
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO NORTHEAST HONDURAS. UNDER INFLUENCE OF DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH...THE TUTT IS TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTH...WEAKENING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE
CAYMAN ISLES THIS IS TO FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
WITH ACCUMULATION OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. ACROSS
NORTHEAST HONDURAS/NICARAGUA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ACROSS CUBA IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM LATER ON SUNDAY TO MONDAY
MORNING.

AS THE TUTT WEAKENS...THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ RETURNS TO ITS
CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS TO
THEN EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA-PANAMA TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.
ACROSS COSTA RICA/SOUTHERN NICARAGUA TO PANAMA IT IS TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. OVER
WESTERN-NORTHERN COLOMBIA INITIALLY EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. THIS DECREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. FURTHERMORE...A LOW
FORMED ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR 10N 90W. THIS IS TO MEANDER
WEST AS THE CYCLE PROGRESSES. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THIS IS TO
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN HONDURAS-EL
SALVADOR...TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. THROUGH SUNDAY ACTIVITY BUILDS WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA TO SOUTHERN CHIAPAS IN MEXICO...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.

ALSO AT 250 HPA...A WANING CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A TUTT TO THE EAST CENTERS
ON A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. A DEEPER/BETTER
ORGANIZED TUTT LOW CENTERS TO THE EAST NEAR 23N 48W. A BUILDING
CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW
TUTT NORTH OF THE LEEWARDS TO RETROGRESS TO PUERTO RICO EARLY ON
SATURDAY...WHERE IT IS TO REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
OTHER LOW MEANDERS WEST...AND IT IS TO MOVE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
LATER ON MONDAY/TUESDAY. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS AGREE ON THEIR
FORECAST OF AN INVERTED TROUGH MEANDERING WEST ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING...AND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
PULLING ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO THE MONA PASSAGE/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TUTT PATTERN ALOFT TO HELP SUSTAIN
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES.
ACROSS THE FRENCH/LEEWARD ISLANDS EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM...WHILE ACROSS PUERTO RICO
EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ACROSS
HISPANIOLA MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHEN
UNDER INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
49W     51W    53W    56W    58W    61W    63W    65W     TW
67W     71W    73W    76W    78W    80W    82W    84W     TW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 49W MOVES NORTH OF THE GUIANAS LATER ON
FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION
EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO THE NORTH. THE WAVE ENTERS
THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING LATE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WHERE IN INTERACTION WITH THE TUTT ALOFT IT IS TO
SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLES IT IS TO THEN FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH MID
MORNING ON SATURDAY...MEANWHILE FAVORING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IT ENTERS JAMAICA AROUND
NOONTIME ON SUNDAY...TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION AND
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ACROSS
NORTHWEST VENEZUELA-NORTHERN COLOMBIA THIS IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE OVER
PANAMA-COSTA RICA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-40MM.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXSA20 KWBC 191642
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1241 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

MODEL DISCUSSION (VALID FROM SEPTEMBER 19 AT 00UTC): CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST IS HIGHER DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD...WHERE THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR
EVOLUTION. DURING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...HOWEVER...THEY CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON HOW TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHERN CONE IS TO EVOLVE.
DURING THAT PERIOD CYCLE-TO-CYCLE INCONSISTENCIES ABOUND...WITH
HIGH VARIABILITY AMONG THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES LEADING TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

OVER THE CONTINENT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS TO PULL ACROSS NORTHERN
ARGENTINA/MID SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA EARLY IN THE CYCLE. A
SECONDARY VORTEX IS TO CLOSELY FOLLOW...TO THEN TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN BRASIL/URUGUAY BY 42/48 HRS. THESE ARE TO THEN COMBINE
WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC...WITH MODELS
THEN SHOWING A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH. A SUBTROPICAL JET
MAXIMA IS TO ACCOMPANY THESE PERTURBATIONS...TO FAVOR A DIVERGENT
PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN BRASIL-MATO GROSSO DO SUL EARLY IN
THE CYCLE. THE FOCUS OF UPPER DIVERGENCE THEN SHIFTS ACROSS
BOLIVIA TO PERU/WESTERN BRASIL THROUGH 48-72 HRS. THE JET STREAM
IS TO THEN REMAIN OVER THE CONTINENT THROUGH 72-84 HRS. AT LOW
LEVELS THE TROUGH ALOFT SUSTAINS A SURFACE LOW THAT IS TO OCCLUDE
AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF URUGUAY/RIO GRANDE DO SUL EARLY IN
THE CYCLE. BY 48-72 HRS...AS REINFORCE BY DEEPENING MID LEVEL
TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW IS TO DEEPEN FROM 1000 HPA TO 986 HPA.
THE DEEPENING LOW WILL REINFORCE THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH INTO SAO PAULO-SANTA CRUZ IN EASTERN BOLIVIA BY 24
HRS...WITH FRONT TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS RIO DE JANEIRO/MATO GROSSO
IN BRASIL TO NORTHERN BOLIVIA BY 36-48 HRS. IT IS TO CONTINUE
NORTH ACROSS ESPIRITO SANTO/MINAS GERAIS BY 96 HRS...WHILE THE
TRAILING END OVER MATO GROSSO/BOLIVIA STARTS TO FRONTOLIZE. AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS  SAO PAULO-MATO GROSSO IT IS TO SUSTAIN
RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 20-45MM THROUGH 36 HRS... WHILE OVER RIO DE
JANEIRO/ESPIRITO SANTO THE MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT 15-25MM BY 36-60
HRS. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS
ESPIRITO SANTO TO EASTERN BAHIA LATER IN THE CYCLE. ACROSS BOLIVIA
EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 15-30MM BY 24-36 HRS. THROUGH 48-60 HRS THIS
INCREASES TO 20-40MM WHILE BUILDING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ACRE IN
BRASIL TO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL JUNGLE IN PERU.

THE MODELS THEN FORECAST A DEEP TROUGH ON THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
PULL ACROSS 95W/100W TO 35S BY 24 HRS. THROUGH 48-60 HRS THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AS IT ENTERS THE CONTINENT THIS IS TO THEN
FAVOR HEIGHT FALLS OF 200-250GPM WHILE FOCUSING SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ACROSS SOUTHERN CHILE TO PATAGONIA IN ARGENTINA. AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS TO THE WEST...A RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
ARGENTINA/WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE WEDDELL SEA/ANTARCTIC PENINSULA.
THIS IS TO THEN SLOWDOWN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH. TROUGH IS TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST ACROSS CHILE TO ARGENTINA THROUGH 84-96 HRS WHILE
BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE EAST RELOCATES TO 35W/40W. AT LOW LEVELS
THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A BROAD TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CHILE BY 36-48
HRS...TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CHILE TO PATAGONIA BY 72 HRS.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT ENTERS SOUTHERN CHILE BY 48 HRS...WHERE IT IS
TO TRIGGER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS WITH ACCUMULATION OF 20-30MM.
POST FRONTAL CONVECTION ON DAY 03 IS TO THEN FAVOR ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS LA PAMPA TO THE BUENOS AIRES
PROVINCE IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. MOST INTENSE IS EXPECTED BY
96-120 HRS...WHEN FRONT SURGES ACROSS RIO DE LA PLATA/URUGUAY TO
NORTHERN ARGENTINA/PARAGUAY. IN THIS AREA THE MODELS ARE IN
SURPRISINGLY CLOSE AGREEMENT...PROJECTING RAINFALL MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. UNDER FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY LIKELY.

AT 200 HPA...A WEAK CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS TO CONFINE TO
PARA/AMAZONAS IN BRASIL AND PERU THROUGH 60-72 HRS. LATER IN THE
CYCLE THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD...AMPLIFYING ACROSS PERU TO
THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC AND SOUTH ACROSS BOLIVIA TO MID
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE EAST IS TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES OF BRASIL. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN EVOLVES...DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
AMERICA IS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE/BETTER ORGANIZED. THROUGH 72-84
HRS THIS IS TO INCREASE TO 20-35MM IN SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION.
LATER IN THE CYCLE IS TO ONCE AGAIN WANE...DECREASING TO
10-15MM/DAY.

JALFIN...SMN (ARGENTINA)
CAROCA...DMC (CHILE)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXSA20 KWBC 191642
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1241 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

MODEL DISCUSSION (VALID FROM SEPTEMBER 19 AT 00UTC): CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST IS HIGHER DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD...WHERE THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR
EVOLUTION. DURING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...HOWEVER...THEY CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE ON HOW TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTHERN CONE IS TO EVOLVE.
DURING THAT PERIOD CYCLE-TO-CYCLE INCONSISTENCIES ABOUND...WITH
HIGH VARIABILITY AMONG THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES LEADING TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

OVER THE CONTINENT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS TO PULL ACROSS NORTHERN
ARGENTINA/MID SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA EARLY IN THE CYCLE. A
SECONDARY VORTEX IS TO CLOSELY FOLLOW...TO THEN TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN BRASIL/URUGUAY BY 42/48 HRS. THESE ARE TO THEN COMBINE
WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC...WITH MODELS
THEN SHOWING A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH. A SUBTROPICAL JET
MAXIMA IS TO ACCOMPANY THESE PERTURBATIONS...TO FAVOR A DIVERGENT
PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN BRASIL-MATO GROSSO DO SUL EARLY IN
THE CYCLE. THE FOCUS OF UPPER DIVERGENCE THEN SHIFTS ACROSS
BOLIVIA TO PERU/WESTERN BRASIL THROUGH 48-72 HRS. THE JET STREAM
IS TO THEN REMAIN OVER THE CONTINENT THROUGH 72-84 HRS. AT LOW
LEVELS THE TROUGH ALOFT SUSTAINS A SURFACE LOW THAT IS TO OCCLUDE
AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF URUGUAY/RIO GRANDE DO SUL EARLY IN
THE CYCLE. BY 48-72 HRS...AS REINFORCE BY DEEPENING MID LEVEL
TROUGH...THE SURFACE LOW IS TO DEEPEN FROM 1000 HPA TO 986 HPA.
THE DEEPENING LOW WILL REINFORCE THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH INTO SAO PAULO-SANTA CRUZ IN EASTERN BOLIVIA BY 24
HRS...WITH FRONT TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS RIO DE JANEIRO/MATO GROSSO
IN BRASIL TO NORTHERN BOLIVIA BY 36-48 HRS. IT IS TO CONTINUE
NORTH ACROSS ESPIRITO SANTO/MINAS GERAIS BY 96 HRS...WHILE THE
TRAILING END OVER MATO GROSSO/BOLIVIA STARTS TO FRONTOLIZE. AS THE
FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS  SAO PAULO-MATO GROSSO IT IS TO SUSTAIN
RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 20-45MM THROUGH 36 HRS... WHILE OVER RIO DE
JANEIRO/ESPIRITO SANTO THE MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT 15-25MM BY 36-60
HRS. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS
ESPIRITO SANTO TO EASTERN BAHIA LATER IN THE CYCLE. ACROSS BOLIVIA
EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 15-30MM BY 24-36 HRS. THROUGH 48-60 HRS THIS
INCREASES TO 20-40MM WHILE BUILDING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ACRE IN
BRASIL TO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL JUNGLE IN PERU.

THE MODELS THEN FORECAST A DEEP TROUGH ON THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
PULL ACROSS 95W/100W TO 35S BY 24 HRS. THROUGH 48-60 HRS THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AS IT ENTERS THE CONTINENT THIS IS TO THEN
FAVOR HEIGHT FALLS OF 200-250GPM WHILE FOCUSING SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ACROSS SOUTHERN CHILE TO PATAGONIA IN ARGENTINA. AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS TO THE WEST...A RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS EASTERN
ARGENTINA/WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE WEDDELL SEA/ANTARCTIC PENINSULA.
THIS IS TO THEN SLOWDOWN THE MID/UPPER TROUGH. TROUGH IS TO SLOWLY
PUSH EAST ACROSS CHILE TO ARGENTINA THROUGH 84-96 HRS WHILE
BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE EAST RELOCATES TO 35W/40W. AT LOW LEVELS
THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A BROAD TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CHILE BY 36-48
HRS...TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CHILE TO PATAGONIA BY 72 HRS.
THE ASSOCIATED FRONT ENTERS SOUTHERN CHILE BY 48 HRS...WHERE IT IS
TO TRIGGER MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS WITH ACCUMULATION OF 20-30MM.
POST FRONTAL CONVECTION ON DAY 03 IS TO THEN FAVOR ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS LA PAMPA TO THE BUENOS AIRES
PROVINCE IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. MOST INTENSE IS EXPECTED BY
96-120 HRS...WHEN FRONT SURGES ACROSS RIO DE LA PLATA/URUGUAY TO
NORTHERN ARGENTINA/PARAGUAY. IN THIS AREA THE MODELS ARE IN
SURPRISINGLY CLOSE AGREEMENT...PROJECTING RAINFALL MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. UNDER FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
HIGHLY LIKELY.

AT 200 HPA...A WEAK CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS TO CONFINE TO
PARA/AMAZONAS IN BRASIL AND PERU THROUGH 60-72 HRS. LATER IN THE
CYCLE THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD...AMPLIFYING ACROSS PERU TO
THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC AND SOUTH ACROSS BOLIVIA TO MID
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE EAST IS TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES OF BRASIL. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN EVOLVES...DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH
AMERICA IS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE/BETTER ORGANIZED. THROUGH 72-84
HRS THIS IS TO INCREASE TO 20-35MM IN SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION.
LATER IN THE CYCLE IS TO ONCE AGAIN WANE...DECREASING TO
10-15MM/DAY.

JALFIN...SMN (ARGENTINA)
CAROCA...DMC (CHILE)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 191457
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1057 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VALID 12Z MON SEP 22 2014 - 12Z FRI SEP 26 2014

...OVERVIEW AND PREFERENCES...

THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE EAST EARLY IN THE FORECAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN AND THEN BEING REINFORCED THROUGH DAY 7/FRIDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US ON DAYS 3 TO 5/MONDAY TO
WEDNESDAY... WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN CANADA BY DAY
7/FRIDAY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE NATION...LARGE CHANGES WILL BE UNDERWAY AS
A DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES HOLD ALONG THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A MINOR UPPER TROUGH  EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE MEAN RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES BY DAY 5/WEDNESDAY THAT THEN
GETS SHEARED ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS A WIDE AREA OF THE NATION LATE
IN THE FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEST.

IN GENERAL...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ON DAY 3/MONDAY WITH THE SLIGHT EXCEPTION
THAT THE OPERATIONAL RUNS SUCH AS THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SLIGHT MORE
DETAIL/DEPTH WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH. BY DAY 4...THERE CONTINUES
TO BE FINE AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THE 00Z CANADIAN APPEARS WAY TOO
AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THIS AGREEMENT CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY/DAY 5. BY DAY 6/THURSDAY...THE OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE CANADIAN RUNS VEER QUITE FAR FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS MEANS WHILE ON DAY 7...LARGER DIFFERENCES START TO
SHOW UP IN BOTH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AND MEANS. TAKING THIS
INFORMATION INTO ACCOUNT...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND THE 06Z GFS/GEFS MEAN WERE ALL USED TO GENERATE THE
FORECAST WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTRIBUTING MORE TO THE BLENDS
THROUGH DAY 5 WHILE THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAD MORE INFLUENCE BY DAY
7.  IN GENERAL...THE LARGEST DIFFERENCES ARE OBSERVED LATER IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH BUT IN GENERAL...THIS WAS NOT A
DIFFICULT FORECAST TO MAKE.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY/DAY
3...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE
NORTHEAST BUT THE FRONT LOSES ITS MOISTURE SOURCE IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THE WEAK TROUGH MOVING WITHIN THE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE WEAKENING ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  COMMENSURATELY...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DROP OFF AS WELL.  THIS REGION SHOULD SEE RELATIVELY WARM
CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY TO KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN THE WEST...COOLER AIR AND AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK AS A RATHER
LARGE OCEANIC STORM TAKES UP RESIDENCE OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST.

KOCIN

$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 191457
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1057 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VALID 12Z MON SEP 22 2014 - 12Z FRI SEP 26 2014

...OVERVIEW AND PREFERENCES...

THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE EAST EARLY IN THE FORECAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN AND THEN BEING REINFORCED THROUGH DAY 7/FRIDAY. AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US ON DAYS 3 TO 5/MONDAY TO
WEDNESDAY... WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN CANADA BY DAY
7/FRIDAY.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE NATION...LARGE CHANGES WILL BE UNDERWAY AS
A DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES HOLD ALONG THE WEST COAST.  ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A MINOR UPPER TROUGH  EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE MEAN RIDGE FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES BY DAY 5/WEDNESDAY THAT THEN
GETS SHEARED ALONG THE US CANADIAN BORDER...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS A WIDE AREA OF THE NATION LATE
IN THE FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WEST.

IN GENERAL...THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ON DAY 3/MONDAY WITH THE SLIGHT EXCEPTION
THAT THE OPERATIONAL RUNS SUCH AS THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SLIGHT MORE
DETAIL/DEPTH WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH. BY DAY 4...THERE CONTINUES
TO BE FINE AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THE 00Z CANADIAN APPEARS WAY TOO
AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THIS AGREEMENT CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY/DAY 5. BY DAY 6/THURSDAY...THE OPERATIONAL AND
ENSEMBLE CANADIAN RUNS VEER QUITE FAR FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS MEANS WHILE ON DAY 7...LARGER DIFFERENCES START TO
SHOW UP IN BOTH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AND MEANS. TAKING THIS
INFORMATION INTO ACCOUNT...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN AND THE 06Z GFS/GEFS MEAN WERE ALL USED TO GENERATE THE
FORECAST WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTRIBUTING MORE TO THE BLENDS
THROUGH DAY 5 WHILE THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAD MORE INFLUENCE BY DAY
7.  IN GENERAL...THE LARGEST DIFFERENCES ARE OBSERVED LATER IN THE
FORECAST WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH BUT IN GENERAL...THIS WAS NOT A
DIFFICULT FORECAST TO MAKE.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY/DAY
3...SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE
NORTHEAST BUT THE FRONT LOSES ITS MOISTURE SOURCE IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THE WEAK TROUGH MOVING WITHIN THE RIDGE FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE REGIONS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE WEAKENING ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  COMMENSURATELY...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DROP OFF AS WELL.  THIS REGION SHOULD SEE RELATIVELY WARM
CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY TO KEEP AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES DOWN. IN THE WEST...COOLER AIR AND AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK AS A RATHER
LARGE OCEANIC STORM TAKES UP RESIDENCE OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST.

KOCIN

$$







000
FXSA20 KWBC 191334
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
933 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM SEPTEMBER 19 AT 00UTC): AT 200 HPA...OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
PARA/AMAZONAS IN BRASIL TO PERU. THIS RIDGE ALSO BRANCHES TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MATO GROSSO TO SAO PAULO IN BRASIL.
THIS...IN-TURN...FAVORS THE NORTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF BRASIL. RIDGE ALOFT IS VENTING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE CONTINENT TO THE NORTH
OF 10S...MOST INTENSE WAS CLUSTERING ACROSS PARA. OTHER ACTIVITY
WAS DOTTING THE SIERRA OF PERU AND THE ALTIPLANO OF BOLIVIA.

THE 250 HPA JET ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR WITH ENTRANCE AT
68S 80W...ALONG 62S 73W...EXITING AT 57S 65W. IT REFORMS AT 47S
67W...ALONG 49S 59W...A 133KT MAXIMUM AT 49S 46W...50S
34W...EXITING AT 53S 24W. THE NORTHERN POLAR LIES ALONG 34S
120W...36S 110W...42S 100W...A 131KT MAXIMUM AT 42S 91W...EXITING
AT 35S 79W. IT REFORMS AT 35S 57W...ALONG 37S 50W...A 142KT
MAXIMUM AT 34S 39W...EXITING AT 31S 29W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS
ITS ENTRANCE AT 18S 82W...ALONG 21S 74W...24S 65W...RIO GRANDE DO
SUL...A 127KT MAXIMUM AT 30S 39W...EXITING AT 21S 27W.

AT 500 HPA...A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 115W/120W TO 30S. AN
INDUCED RIDGE TO THE EAST EXTENDS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ALONG 90W TO THE
POLAR ICE CAP. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS AXIS...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDS BETWEEN 70W-20W AND TO THE SOUTH OF
50S...WHILE CENTERING ON A CLOSED LOW AT 64S 37W. SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS POPULATE THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...WITH ONE ALONG
80W TO 30S AS ANOTHER PULLS ACROSS NORTHERN ARGENTINA. THE LATTER
PROVIDES DYNAMICAL SUPPORT TO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
PARAGUAY-SOUTHERN BRASIL.

AT LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM CENTERS ON A 1017
HPA HIGH AT 52S 83W. AN ELONGATED POLAR FRONT LIES TO THE
NORTH...ORIGINATING ON AN OCCLUDED 1006 HPA LOW AT 45S 67W...THEN
ALONG A 1010 HPA LOW AT 44S 62W...42S 66W...43S 71W...43S 74W...A
1010 HPA LOW AT 41S 77W...38S 79W...35S 84W...35S 89W...37S
93W...40S 96W...A 1006 HPA LOW AT 41S 100W...AND 38S 102W. ANOTHER
FRONT TO THE NORTH ORIGINATES ON AN OCCLUDED 1006 HPA LOW AT 39S
19W...ALONG A 1006 HPA LOW AT 42S 10W...39S 12W...A 1010 HPA LOW
AT 37S 16W...30S 19W...25S 27W...24S 40W...SAO PAULO...27S
53W...30S 54W...A 1010 HPA LOW AT 30S 56W...CORRIENTES-SOUTHEAST
PARAGUAY TO CHACO PARAGUAYO/SOUTHERN BOLIVIA. THIS SUSTAINS
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MID SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. A
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CENTERS ON TWO 1025 HPA HIGHS...WITH ONE AT 26S
33W AND THE OTHER AT 36S 39W.

JALFIN...SMN (ARGENTINA)
CAROCA...DMC (CHILE)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXSA20 KWBC 191334
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
933 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM SEPTEMBER 19 AT 00UTC): AT 200 HPA...OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
PARA/AMAZONAS IN BRASIL TO PERU. THIS RIDGE ALSO BRANCHES TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MATO GROSSO TO SAO PAULO IN BRASIL.
THIS...IN-TURN...FAVORS THE NORTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF BRASIL. RIDGE ALOFT IS VENTING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE CONTINENT TO THE NORTH
OF 10S...MOST INTENSE WAS CLUSTERING ACROSS PARA. OTHER ACTIVITY
WAS DOTTING THE SIERRA OF PERU AND THE ALTIPLANO OF BOLIVIA.

THE 250 HPA JET ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR WITH ENTRANCE AT
68S 80W...ALONG 62S 73W...EXITING AT 57S 65W. IT REFORMS AT 47S
67W...ALONG 49S 59W...A 133KT MAXIMUM AT 49S 46W...50S
34W...EXITING AT 53S 24W. THE NORTHERN POLAR LIES ALONG 34S
120W...36S 110W...42S 100W...A 131KT MAXIMUM AT 42S 91W...EXITING
AT 35S 79W. IT REFORMS AT 35S 57W...ALONG 37S 50W...A 142KT
MAXIMUM AT 34S 39W...EXITING AT 31S 29W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS
ITS ENTRANCE AT 18S 82W...ALONG 21S 74W...24S 65W...RIO GRANDE DO
SUL...A 127KT MAXIMUM AT 30S 39W...EXITING AT 21S 27W.

AT 500 HPA...A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 115W/120W TO 30S. AN
INDUCED RIDGE TO THE EAST EXTENDS NORTH-TO-SOUTH ALONG 90W TO THE
POLAR ICE CAP. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS AXIS...A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH
ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDS BETWEEN 70W-20W AND TO THE SOUTH OF
50S...WHILE CENTERING ON A CLOSED LOW AT 64S 37W. SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS POPULATE THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...WITH ONE ALONG
80W TO 30S AS ANOTHER PULLS ACROSS NORTHERN ARGENTINA. THE LATTER
PROVIDES DYNAMICAL SUPPORT TO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
PARAGUAY-SOUTHERN BRASIL.

AT LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM CENTERS ON A 1017
HPA HIGH AT 52S 83W. AN ELONGATED POLAR FRONT LIES TO THE
NORTH...ORIGINATING ON AN OCCLUDED 1006 HPA LOW AT 45S 67W...THEN
ALONG A 1010 HPA LOW AT 44S 62W...42S 66W...43S 71W...43S 74W...A
1010 HPA LOW AT 41S 77W...38S 79W...35S 84W...35S 89W...37S
93W...40S 96W...A 1006 HPA LOW AT 41S 100W...AND 38S 102W. ANOTHER
FRONT TO THE NORTH ORIGINATES ON AN OCCLUDED 1006 HPA LOW AT 39S
19W...ALONG A 1006 HPA LOW AT 42S 10W...39S 12W...A 1010 HPA LOW
AT 37S 16W...30S 19W...25S 27W...24S 40W...SAO PAULO...27S
53W...30S 54W...A 1010 HPA LOW AT 30S 56W...CORRIENTES-SOUTHEAST
PARAGUAY TO CHACO PARAGUAYO/SOUTHERN BOLIVIA. THIS SUSTAINS
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MID SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. A
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CENTERS ON TWO 1025 HPA HIGHS...WITH ONE AT 26S
33W AND THE OTHER AT 36S 39W.

JALFIN...SMN (ARGENTINA)
CAROCA...DMC (CHILE)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 191126
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
726 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. TROPICAL WAVE
MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS...IN
INTERACTION WITH A TUTT LOW OVER THE LEEWARD ISLES...TRIGGERED
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES/EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND CARIBBEAN SEA. AS THEY INTERACT... THIS SUSTAINS THE
NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF ITCZ MOISTURE ACROSS THE FRENCH ISLES TO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. ALONG THIS TRAILING BAND...THE SATELLITE
DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS BETWEEN 50-60MM OF AVAILABLE WATER.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FOLLOWS...WITH AXIS ALONG 46W/47W EARLY THIS
MORNING.

ALOFT...TUTT LOW IS TO DOMINATE UPPER FLOW PATTERN INTO THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING CLOSED LOW
MEANDERING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLES AND PUERTO
RICO. HOWEVER...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND ANOTHER
TUTT LOW THAT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST REMAINS TO BE
DETERMINED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A DEEPER/BETTER ORGANIZED LOW
THAN THE GFS ESTABLISHING TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONSIDERING HOW ACTIVE TUTT PATTERN HAS BEEN THUS FAR THIS
SEASON...THE DEEPER TUTT AS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF SEEMS A SAFER
BET. AT MID LEVELS... MODELS AGREE ON THEIR FORECAST OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH MEANDERING WEST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN EARLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING PULLING ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TO THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TUTT
PATTERN ALOFT TO HELP SUSTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. PWAT IS TO REMAIN AROUND 40-45MM DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL FEED THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN/SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE...WITH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO
GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW MOST ACTIVE ACROSS WESTERN INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND
PREVAILING EASTERLIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
VI TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL MAXIMA WILL PEAK
AT 3-5 INCHES... WITH MOST INTENSE ACROSS SAINT CROIX...EL YUNQUE
RAINFOREST AND WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. IF UPPER
TUTT PATTERN EVOLVES AS INTENSE AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS...IT COULD
RESULT IN ORGANIZED HEAVY CONVECTION AS IT PULLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 191126
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
726 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. TROPICAL WAVE
MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS...IN
INTERACTION WITH A TUTT LOW OVER THE LEEWARD ISLES...TRIGGERED
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES/EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND CARIBBEAN SEA. AS THEY INTERACT... THIS SUSTAINS THE
NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF ITCZ MOISTURE ACROSS THE FRENCH ISLES TO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. ALONG THIS TRAILING BAND...THE SATELLITE
DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS BETWEEN 50-60MM OF AVAILABLE WATER.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FOLLOWS...WITH AXIS ALONG 46W/47W EARLY THIS
MORNING.

ALOFT...TUTT LOW IS TO DOMINATE UPPER FLOW PATTERN INTO THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING CLOSED LOW
MEANDERING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLES AND PUERTO
RICO. HOWEVER...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND ANOTHER
TUTT LOW THAT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST REMAINS TO BE
DETERMINED...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A DEEPER/BETTER ORGANIZED LOW
THAN THE GFS ESTABLISHING TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONSIDERING HOW ACTIVE TUTT PATTERN HAS BEEN THUS FAR THIS
SEASON...THE DEEPER TUTT AS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF SEEMS A SAFER
BET. AT MID LEVELS... MODELS AGREE ON THEIR FORECAST OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH MEANDERING WEST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN EARLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING PULLING ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TO THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH TUTT
PATTERN ALOFT TO HELP SUSTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. PWAT IS TO REMAIN AROUND 40-45MM DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL FEED THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN/SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE...WITH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO
GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW MOST ACTIVE ACROSS WESTERN INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND
PREVAILING EASTERLIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
VI TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL MAXIMA WILL PEAK
AT 3-5 INCHES... WITH MOST INTENSE ACROSS SAINT CROIX...EL YUNQUE
RAINFOREST AND WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. IF UPPER
TUTT PATTERN EVOLVES AS INTENSE AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS...IT COULD
RESULT IN ORGANIZED HEAVY CONVECTION AS IT PULLS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







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