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000
FXCA20 KWBC 011801
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

DISCUSSION FROM OCTOBER 01/00UTC: POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN TO CENTRAL USA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER ON FRIDAY. THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A FRONT
ACROSS TEXAS TO THE RIO BRAVO EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA-GULF OF MEXICO TO TAMAULIPAS EARLY ON SATURDAY.
FURTHERMORE...THE PROGRESSIVE FRONT IS TO SUSTAIN A PREFRONTAL
SHEAR LINE ACROSS VERACRUZ MEXICO ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS
THE FRONT ENTERS NORTHEAST MEXICO IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. MOST ACTIVE IS
EXPECTED WITH THE SHEAR LINE...TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.

AS THE POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE USA...IT IS GOING TO PRESS
AGAINST A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AT 250 HPA
THE RIDGE IS TO EXTEND WEST FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS
THE GULF-FLORIDA/THE BAHAMAS TO NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.
UPPER RIDGE PATTERN IS TO ANCHOR ON TWO CLOSED HIGHS...WITH ONE AT
23N 103W AND THE OTHER AT 23N 89W. AS POLAR TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN USA...RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS TO
WANE...WHILE THE ONE OVER MEXICO BUILDS NORTH AND WEST. RIDGE
ALOFT IS TO VENT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MEXICO. MOST ACTIVE IS
EXPECTED TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE/TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ. NHC IS
MONITORING THIS FEATURE FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ACROSS NAYARIT-COLIMA TO GUERRERO
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THIS THEN DECREASES TO 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO TO SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM THEREAFTER. OTHER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SIERRA
MADRE BETWEEN SINALOA-SONORA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. OVER BELIZE-NORTHERN GUATEMALA
TO THE YUCATAN... MEANWHILE... EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

UPPER RIDGE PATTERN NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES IS TO PERSIST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT MID LEVELS...ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS
WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS RIDGE SUSTAINS A
TRADE WINDS CAP ACROSS HISPANIOLA-NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. AS
THE RIDGE PATTERN HOLDS...AND PHASES WITH UPPER RIDGE PATTERN TO
THE NORTH...THE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
CUBA/THE BAHAMAS-JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLES. ACROSS CUBA THIS IS
TO FAVOR A GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. EARLY IN THE CYCLE
THE MOST ACTIVE IS TO CLUSTER BETWEEN CENTRAL-WESTERN CUBA WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. THROUGH
THURSDAY THIS DECREASES TO 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...MEANWHILE... EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A TUTT EXTENDS WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...WITH AXIS ACROSS THE FRENCH ILSES-13N 70W TO
A LOW NORTH OF LA GUAJIRA PENINSULA/SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
TROUGH IS TO GENERALLY CONFINE TO THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...HAVING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT/REFLECTION AT MID LEVELS.
AS A RESULT...ANY CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS TO GENERALLY LIMIT TO
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...WHERE IN INTERACTION WITH THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA-NORTHWEST VENEZUELA IT IS
TO FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL WAVE (SEE BELOW FOR
DETAILS). ACROSS SOUTHERN NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA...MEANDERING ITCZ IS TO ALSO FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
WITH ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THIS
INCREASES TO 20-35MM LATER ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
60W     64W    68W    71W    74W    77W    78W    80W     TW
91W     93W    95W    97W    98W   100W   102W   104W     TW
103W   104W   106W   107W   108W   110W   112W   115W     TW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W IS MOVING TO THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGE ENVELOPING THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. AS A
RESULT...EXPECTING MOSTLY SHALLOW CONVECTION AS IT PULLS ACROSS
THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLES...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WINDWARD
ISLES/NORTHEAST VENEZUELA...WHERE IN INTERACTION WITH THE ATLANTIC
ITCZ EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
FOLLOWING WAVE PASSAGE...DRY/DUSTY CONDITIONS ARE TO ESTABLISH AS
A SAL ENTERS THE BASIN LATER THIS WEEK. ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA-EASTERN CUBA ON FRIDAY.
OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE OVER NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN
COLOMBIA IN INTERACTION WITH TUTT ALOFT EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN
COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY...WITH ACCUMULATION OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 91W TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS IS
ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. OVER OAXACA-GUERRERO-CENTRAL STATES OF MEXICO
IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W SUSTAINS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ...WITH THE NHC FORECASTING HIGH
RISK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS IS ENHANCING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES OF
MEXICO...BETWEEN COLIMA/NAYARIT AND GUERRERO...WHERE STRONG
TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM THROUGH THURSDAY. AS IT MOVES
WEST...AND A MOIST PLUME EXPANDS ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA...THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 10MM LATER ON FRIDAY.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 011801
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

DISCUSSION FROM OCTOBER 01/00UTC: POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN TO CENTRAL USA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER ON FRIDAY. THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A FRONT
ACROSS TEXAS TO THE RIO BRAVO EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA-GULF OF MEXICO TO TAMAULIPAS EARLY ON SATURDAY.
FURTHERMORE...THE PROGRESSIVE FRONT IS TO SUSTAIN A PREFRONTAL
SHEAR LINE ACROSS VERACRUZ MEXICO ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS
THE FRONT ENTERS NORTHEAST MEXICO IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. MOST ACTIVE IS
EXPECTED WITH THE SHEAR LINE...TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.

AS THE POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE USA...IT IS GOING TO PRESS
AGAINST A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AT 250 HPA
THE RIDGE IS TO EXTEND WEST FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MEXICO...ACROSS
THE GULF-FLORIDA/THE BAHAMAS TO NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.
UPPER RIDGE PATTERN IS TO ANCHOR ON TWO CLOSED HIGHS...WITH ONE AT
23N 103W AND THE OTHER AT 23N 89W. AS POLAR TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN USA...RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS TO
WANE...WHILE THE ONE OVER MEXICO BUILDS NORTH AND WEST. RIDGE
ALOFT IS TO VENT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MEXICO. MOST ACTIVE IS
EXPECTED TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE/TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ. NHC IS
MONITORING THIS FEATURE FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ACROSS NAYARIT-COLIMA TO GUERRERO
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THIS THEN DECREASES TO 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO TO SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM THEREAFTER. OTHER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SIERRA
MADRE BETWEEN SINALOA-SONORA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. OVER BELIZE-NORTHERN GUATEMALA
TO THE YUCATAN... MEANWHILE... EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.

UPPER RIDGE PATTERN NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES IS TO PERSIST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT MID LEVELS...ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS
WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS RIDGE SUSTAINS A
TRADE WINDS CAP ACROSS HISPANIOLA-NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. AS
THE RIDGE PATTERN HOLDS...AND PHASES WITH UPPER RIDGE PATTERN TO
THE NORTH...THE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
CUBA/THE BAHAMAS-JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLES. ACROSS CUBA THIS IS
TO FAVOR A GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. EARLY IN THE CYCLE
THE MOST ACTIVE IS TO CLUSTER BETWEEN CENTRAL-WESTERN CUBA WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. THROUGH
THURSDAY THIS DECREASES TO 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...MEANWHILE... EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A TUTT EXTENDS WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...WITH AXIS ACROSS THE FRENCH ILSES-13N 70W TO
A LOW NORTH OF LA GUAJIRA PENINSULA/SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
TROUGH IS TO GENERALLY CONFINE TO THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...HAVING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT/REFLECTION AT MID LEVELS.
AS A RESULT...ANY CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS TO GENERALLY LIMIT TO
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...WHERE IN INTERACTION WITH THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA-NORTHWEST VENEZUELA IT IS
TO FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL WAVE (SEE BELOW FOR
DETAILS). ACROSS SOUTHERN NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA...MEANDERING ITCZ IS TO ALSO FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
WITH ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THIS
INCREASES TO 20-35MM LATER ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
60W     64W    68W    71W    74W    77W    78W    80W     TW
91W     93W    95W    97W    98W   100W   102W   104W     TW
103W   104W   106W   107W   108W   110W   112W   115W     TW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W IS MOVING TO THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF MID
LEVEL RIDGE ENVELOPING THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. AS A
RESULT...EXPECTING MOSTLY SHALLOW CONVECTION AS IT PULLS ACROSS
THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLES...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WINDWARD
ISLES/NORTHEAST VENEZUELA...WHERE IN INTERACTION WITH THE ATLANTIC
ITCZ EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
FOLLOWING WAVE PASSAGE...DRY/DUSTY CONDITIONS ARE TO ESTABLISH AS
A SAL ENTERS THE BASIN LATER THIS WEEK. ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA-EASTERN CUBA ON FRIDAY.
OVER CENTRAL VENEZUELA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...WHILE OVER NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN
COLOMBIA IN INTERACTION WITH TUTT ALOFT EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN
COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY...WITH ACCUMULATION OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 91W TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS IS
ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. OVER OAXACA-GUERRERO-CENTRAL STATES OF MEXICO
IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W SUSTAINS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ...WITH THE NHC FORECASTING HIGH
RISK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS IS ENHANCING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES OF
MEXICO...BETWEEN COLIMA/NAYARIT AND GUERRERO...WHERE STRONG
TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM THROUGH THURSDAY. AS IT MOVES
WEST...AND A MOIST PLUME EXPANDS ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA...THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 10MM LATER ON FRIDAY.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 011530
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1130 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 04 2014 - 12Z WED OCT 08 2014


THE MOST RECENT ENSEMBLE MEANS--06Z/01 GEFS, 00Z/01 ECENS, 00Z/01
CMC--ARE PAINTING THE SAME PICTURE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AT THE
MEDIUM RANGE. THE DEEP TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD LOSES AMPLITUDE SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY DAY 7 AS NEW JET ENERGY SURGES INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA.
THE PACIFIC JET ENERGY IS COMPRISED OF BOTH POLAR AND TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES--ALWAYS A DICEY COMBINATION FOR DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS
DURING THE AUTUMN. FORTUNATELY, WHERE THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
ARE DIVERGENT, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS CORRELATE WELL. AS IT STANDS,
THE PATTERN IS A DRY ONE FOR THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES, WITH
PACIFIC MOISTURE SHUT OFF BY THE MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SHUT OFF BY THE DOMINANT WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW IN THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST.


CISCO

$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 011530
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1130 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 04 2014 - 12Z WED OCT 08 2014


THE MOST RECENT ENSEMBLE MEANS--06Z/01 GEFS, 00Z/01 ECENS, 00Z/01
CMC--ARE PAINTING THE SAME PICTURE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AT THE
MEDIUM RANGE. THE DEEP TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD LOSES AMPLITUDE SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY DAY 7 AS NEW JET ENERGY SURGES INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA.
THE PACIFIC JET ENERGY IS COMPRISED OF BOTH POLAR AND TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES--ALWAYS A DICEY COMBINATION FOR DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS
DURING THE AUTUMN. FORTUNATELY, WHERE THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
ARE DIVERGENT, THE ENSEMBLE MEANS CORRELATE WELL. AS IT STANDS,
THE PATTERN IS A DRY ONE FOR THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES, WITH
PACIFIC MOISTURE SHUT OFF BY THE MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SHUT OFF BY THE DOMINANT WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW IN THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST.


CISCO

$$






000
FXSA20 KWBC 011520
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1119 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

MODEL DISCUSSION (VALID FROM OCTOBER 01 AT 00UTC): THE GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE QUITE WELL THROUGH 96-108 HRS...THEN DEVELOP MINOR
TIMING DIFFERENCES LATER IN THE CYCLE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST IS HIGH.

BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER ARGENTINA IS TO SUSTAIN THE
NORTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC...WITH AXIS NORTH ALONG 40W TO 25S EARLY THIS CYCLE.
THROUGH 48 HRS THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO EXTEND BETWEEN 50W-10W TO
15S...WHERE IT IS TO THEN MEANDER THROUGH 96-108 HRS. AT LOW
LEVELS...BUILDING RIDGE IS TO EXTEND OFF THE COAST OF ARGENTINA.
THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN-SOUTHEAST BRASIL. A POLAR TROUGH LIES TO THE
EAST...WITH FRONT TRAILING ACROSS SOUTHEAST BRASIL-PARAGUAY. FRONT
OVER THE CONTINENT FRONTOLIZES EARLY IN THE CYCLE...WHILE REMNANTS
OVER THE ATLANTIC ARE TO SURGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST BRASIL TO RIO DE
JANEIRO EARLY IN THE CYCLE. THROUGH 48 HRS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH
TO ESPIRITO SANTO... REACHING BAHIA BY 72 HRS. AS THE FRONT SURGES
NORTH IS IT TO THEN TRIGGER A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE. THIS IS TO
ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WHILE ALSO TRIGGERING ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS SAO PAULO...IT IS TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED COASTAL CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF 15-30MM.
OVER MINAS GERAIS-BAHIA-ESPIRITO SANTO IT IS TO THEN FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 20-40MM BY 48-84 HRS...WHILE OVER
PERNABUCO-TOCANTINS/GOIAS AND PORTIONS OF PARA MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY 72-84 HRS.

A DEEP LOW/TROUGH ON THE NORTHERN STREAM LIES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE DEEP MID LEVEL PERTURBATION REACHES CENTRAL CHILE BY
48-60 HRS...AND BY 72-84 HRS IT IS TO SPILL ACROSS THE ANDES INTO
CENTRAL PROVINCES IN ARGENTINA. THE INFLOW OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
THEN INDUCE HEIGHT FALLS OF 100-150GPM ACROSS CENTRAL
ARGENTINA-NORTHERN PATAGONIA BY 60-84 HRS. THROUGH 96 HRS A STRONG
CYCLONIC VORTEX IS TO THEN SWING ACROSS BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE/RIO
DE LA PLATA BASIN. THIS PERTURBATION IS TO THEN MEANDER EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONE TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH 120-132
HRS. AT LOW LEVELS...THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS
TO SUSTAIN A NORTHERLY JET ACROSS PARAGUAY-ARGENTINA. AS
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WEAKENS OVER PARAGUAY...A WARM/MOIST
ADVECTIVE PATTERN IS TO ESTABLISH ACROSS MID/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH COLD ADVECTION
ALOFT...IS TO THEN FAVOR DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FROM
NORTHERN PATAGONIA TO MENDOZA/CORDOBA IN ARGENTINA. AS UPPER
TROUGH SPILLS ACROSS THE ANDES...IT IS TO SUSTAIN CYCLOGENESIS
OVER CENTRAL ARGENTINA...WITH SYSTEM FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
CROSS THE SOUTHERN CONE THROUGH 108-120 HRS. THIS IS TO ALSO
TRIGGER ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL PROVINCES IN
ARGENTINA...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 25-50MM EXPECTED BETWEEN 72-96
HRS. THIS IS TO GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH ACROSS CORDOBA TO CORRIENTES
IN ARGENTINA THROUGH 108 HRS. UNDER FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...THERE
IS A RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION ON DAY 03.

NORTH OVER THE CONTINENT...AT 200 HPA...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
TO EXTEND ACROSS MATO GROSSO-MINAS GERAIS/BAHIA IN BRASIL EARLY IN
THE CYCLE...AS IT IS TO CENTER ON A CLOSED HIGH OVER MINAS GERAIS.
THROUGH 72-96 HRS THE HIGH RELOCATES TO MATO GROSSO/RONDONIA IN
BRASIL. AS IT PULLS AWAY...A TROUGH IS TO THEN AMPLIFY ACROSS
NORTHEAST BRASIL. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THE RIDGE ALOFT IS TO VENT


CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN-NORTHEASTERN BRASIL...WITH MAXIMA IN
THIS AREA TO PEAK AT 20-40MM BY 48-84 HRS. BY 99-120 HRS FOCUS OF
THE CONVECTION SHIFTS TO PARA-MATO GROSSO-RONDONIA IN BRASIL. ON
THE SIERRA OF PERU...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM...WHILE OVER NORTHERN PERU/NORTHERN AMAZONAS TO
SOUTHERN COLOMBIA THE MAXIMA PEAKS AT 15-30MM ON DAY 02.
OTHERWISE... EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY.

CAROCA...DMC (CHILE)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXSA20 KWBC 011520
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1119 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

MODEL DISCUSSION (VALID FROM OCTOBER 01 AT 00UTC): THE GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE QUITE WELL THROUGH 96-108 HRS...THEN DEVELOP MINOR
TIMING DIFFERENCES LATER IN THE CYCLE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST IS HIGH.

BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER ARGENTINA IS TO SUSTAIN THE
NORTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC...WITH AXIS NORTH ALONG 40W TO 25S EARLY THIS CYCLE.
THROUGH 48 HRS THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO EXTEND BETWEEN 50W-10W TO
15S...WHERE IT IS TO THEN MEANDER THROUGH 96-108 HRS. AT LOW
LEVELS...BUILDING RIDGE IS TO EXTEND OFF THE COAST OF ARGENTINA.
THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN-SOUTHEAST BRASIL. A POLAR TROUGH LIES TO THE
EAST...WITH FRONT TRAILING ACROSS SOUTHEAST BRASIL-PARAGUAY. FRONT
OVER THE CONTINENT FRONTOLIZES EARLY IN THE CYCLE...WHILE REMNANTS
OVER THE ATLANTIC ARE TO SURGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST BRASIL TO RIO DE
JANEIRO EARLY IN THE CYCLE. THROUGH 48 HRS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH
TO ESPIRITO SANTO... REACHING BAHIA BY 72 HRS. AS THE FRONT SURGES
NORTH IS IT TO THEN TRIGGER A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE. THIS IS TO
ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WHILE ALSO TRIGGERING ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH ACROSS SAO PAULO...IT IS TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED COASTAL CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF 15-30MM.
OVER MINAS GERAIS-BAHIA-ESPIRITO SANTO IT IS TO THEN FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 20-40MM BY 48-84 HRS...WHILE OVER
PERNABUCO-TOCANTINS/GOIAS AND PORTIONS OF PARA MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY 72-84 HRS.

A DEEP LOW/TROUGH ON THE NORTHERN STREAM LIES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE DEEP MID LEVEL PERTURBATION REACHES CENTRAL CHILE BY
48-60 HRS...AND BY 72-84 HRS IT IS TO SPILL ACROSS THE ANDES INTO
CENTRAL PROVINCES IN ARGENTINA. THE INFLOW OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL
THEN INDUCE HEIGHT FALLS OF 100-150GPM ACROSS CENTRAL
ARGENTINA-NORTHERN PATAGONIA BY 60-84 HRS. THROUGH 96 HRS A STRONG
CYCLONIC VORTEX IS TO THEN SWING ACROSS BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE/RIO
DE LA PLATA BASIN. THIS PERTURBATION IS TO THEN MEANDER EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONE TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH 120-132
HRS. AT LOW LEVELS...THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS
TO SUSTAIN A NORTHERLY JET ACROSS PARAGUAY-ARGENTINA. AS
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WEAKENS OVER PARAGUAY...A WARM/MOIST
ADVECTIVE PATTERN IS TO ESTABLISH ACROSS MID/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH COLD ADVECTION
ALOFT...IS TO THEN FAVOR DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FROM
NORTHERN PATAGONIA TO MENDOZA/CORDOBA IN ARGENTINA. AS UPPER
TROUGH SPILLS ACROSS THE ANDES...IT IS TO SUSTAIN CYCLOGENESIS
OVER CENTRAL ARGENTINA...WITH SYSTEM FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST
CROSS THE SOUTHERN CONE THROUGH 108-120 HRS. THIS IS TO ALSO
TRIGGER ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL PROVINCES IN
ARGENTINA...WITH ACCUMULATION OF 25-50MM EXPECTED BETWEEN 72-96
HRS. THIS IS TO GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH ACROSS CORDOBA TO CORRIENTES
IN ARGENTINA THROUGH 108 HRS. UNDER FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...THERE
IS A RISK OF SEVERE CONVECTION ON DAY 03.

NORTH OVER THE CONTINENT...AT 200 HPA...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
TO EXTEND ACROSS MATO GROSSO-MINAS GERAIS/BAHIA IN BRASIL EARLY IN
THE CYCLE...AS IT IS TO CENTER ON A CLOSED HIGH OVER MINAS GERAIS.
THROUGH 72-96 HRS THE HIGH RELOCATES TO MATO GROSSO/RONDONIA IN
BRASIL. AS IT PULLS AWAY...A TROUGH IS TO THEN AMPLIFY ACROSS
NORTHEAST BRASIL. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THE RIDGE ALOFT IS TO VENT


CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN-NORTHEASTERN BRASIL...WITH MAXIMA IN
THIS AREA TO PEAK AT 20-40MM BY 48-84 HRS. BY 99-120 HRS FOCUS OF
THE CONVECTION SHIFTS TO PARA-MATO GROSSO-RONDONIA IN BRASIL. ON
THE SIERRA OF PERU...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM...WHILE OVER NORTHERN PERU/NORTHERN AMAZONAS TO
SOUTHERN COLOMBIA THE MAXIMA PEAKS AT 15-30MM ON DAY 02.
OTHERWISE... EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY.

CAROCA...DMC (CHILE)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXSA20 KWBC 011221
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
820 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM OCTOBER 01 AT 00UTC): AT 200 HPA...THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS A CELL OVER THE CONTINENT THAT EXTENDS
BETWEEN 60W-30W AND TOT EH NORTH OF 30S...WHILE CENTERING ON A
CLOSED HIGH OVER BRASIL NEAR 19S 49W. A SHORT WAVE TO THE EAST
ENTERED PERU...AND IT IS PRESSING AGAINST THIS RIDGE AS IT
MEANDERS OVER THE CONTINENT. THE TROUGH ALOFT IS ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN SIERRA OF
PERU...WHILE THE RIDGE IS VENTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
BRASIL.

AT 250 HPA...THE SOUTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 46S
129W...ALONG 130KT MAXIMUM AT 54S 120W...EXITING AT 60S 85W. IT
REFORMS AT 45S 52W...THEN ALONG 45S 31W...A 137KT MAXIMUM AT 49S
12W...AND 52S 03W. THE NORTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 42S
99W...ALONG 31S 97W...A 128KT MAXIMUM AT 28S 91W...A 123KT MAXIMUM
AT 30S 80W...EXITING AT 34S 72W. IT REFORMS AT 41S 68W...ALONG 39S
56W...A 124KT MAXIMUM AT 41S 40W...41S 24W...AND 45S 09W. THE
SUBTROPICAL JET HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 28S 106W...THEN ALONG 24S
91W...26S 78W...29S 66W...34S 53W...A 144KT MAXIMUM AT 38S 44W...A
164KT MAXIMUM AT 37S 35W...28S 26W...EXITING AT 16S 24W.

AT 500 HPA...A DEEP LOW ON THE NORTHERN STREAM CENTERS NEAR 35S
91W...ANCHORING A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS
SUSTAINS AN INDUCED/SHORT WAVE RIDGE ACROSS CHILE. THIS IS IN
PHASE WITH ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE DRAKE
PASSAGE TO THE BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA. BROAD TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH
ATLANTIC DOMINATES AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 40S...WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH STREAMING ACROSS URUGUAY/RIO GRANDE DO SUL IN
BRASIL.

AT LOW LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CONE...ANCHORING
ON TWO 1025 HPA HIGHS...WITH ONE AT 47S 79W AND THE OTHER AT 42S
62W. WEST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AN OCCLUDED 994 HPA LOW AT
34S 89W EXTENDS A FRONT ALONG A 1004 HPA LOW AT 39S 87W...35S
83W...A 1006 HPA LOW AT 32S 84W...25S 87W...AND 20S 98W. OVER THE
ATLANTIC...AN ELONGATED FRONT LIES ALONG A 1014 HPA LOW AT 44S
46W...37S 54W...BUENOS AIRES TO 35S 67W. AN OLD FRONT TO THE EAST
LIES ALONG A 1012 HPA LOW AT 37S 24W...31S 33W...31S 45W...RIO
GRANDE DO SUL-MISIONES ARGENTINA TO CHACO PARAGUAYO. THIS SUSTAINS
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.

CAROCA...DMC (CHILE)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 011116
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
716 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. UNDER
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL. AT
LOW LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERED THE ISLAND CHAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAIN EAST OF THIS AXIS...WITH
DRY/DUSTY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING.

MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN IS TO HOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SUSTAINING TRADE WINDS CAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT LOW
LEVELS...TROPICAL WAVE PULLS ACROSS THE USVI TO EASTERN PUERTO
RICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY IT MOVES TO THE MONA PASSAGE. PWAT WITH THIS WAVE IS
FORECAST TO PEAK AT 40-45MM...BUT A RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS TO FOLLOW EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SAL TRAILING
THIS WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN. AS MID LEVEL CAP INVERSION IS TO
GENERALLY PERSIST...THIS WAVE IS TO ONLY FAVOR LIGHT SHALLOW
CONVECTION AS IT PULLS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES/EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...WITH MODELS ONLY FORECASTING TRACE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. BUT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
STEERING FLOW...THE MOST ACTIVE IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON FRIDAY-TUESDAY...FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AS THE SAL ENVELOPS
THE FORECAST AREA.

MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 011116
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
716 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. UNDER
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL. AT
LOW LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERED THE ISLAND CHAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REMAIN EAST OF THIS AXIS...WITH
DRY/DUSTY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING.

MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN IS TO HOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SUSTAINING TRADE WINDS CAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT LOW
LEVELS...TROPICAL WAVE PULLS ACROSS THE USVI TO EASTERN PUERTO
RICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY IT MOVES TO THE MONA PASSAGE. PWAT WITH THIS WAVE IS
FORECAST TO PEAK AT 40-45MM...BUT A RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS TO FOLLOW EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SAL TRAILING
THIS WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN. AS MID LEVEL CAP INVERSION IS TO
GENERALLY PERSIST...THIS WAVE IS TO ONLY FAVOR LIGHT SHALLOW
CONVECTION AS IT PULLS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES/EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...WITH MODELS ONLY FORECASTING TRACE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SOME
RESIDUAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. BUT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY
STEERING FLOW...THE MOST ACTIVE IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON FRIDAY-TUESDAY...FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE TO GENERALLY PREVAIL AS THE SAL ENVELOPS
THE FORECAST AREA.

MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 010819
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
418 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

VALID 12Z WED OCT 1 2014 - 12Z FRI OCT 3 2014

***STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS***

***SHOWERS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS***

***SOME SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THURSDAY***

THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. WILL BE A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ALONG IT.  THIS LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM
MONTANA.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM OKLAHOMA TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.  A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SURGE OF WARM AND HUMID AIR IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
COMBINES WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AND FLORIDA.  OUT WEST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, SOME
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ABOVE 8000 FEET WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE AND COLD AIR FROM THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS.

HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 010819
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
418 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

VALID 12Z WED OCT 1 2014 - 12Z FRI OCT 3 2014

***STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS***

***SHOWERS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS***

***SOME SHOWERS FOR THE NORTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THURSDAY***

THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. WILL BE A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WITH A DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ALONG IT.  THIS LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM
MONTANA.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM OKLAHOMA TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.  A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SURGE OF WARM AND HUMID AIR IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
COMBINES WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AND FLORIDA.  OUT WEST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, SOME
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY ABOVE 8000 FEET WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE AND COLD AIR FROM THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS.

HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 010630
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
230 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 04 2014 - 12Z WED OCT 08 2014

...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...

FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FCST OF AN
AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH MEAN PATTERN THAT SHOULD HAVE ABOVE
AVG PREDICTABILITY IN THE LARGE SCALE.  HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES TO ARISE REGARDING HOW MUCH UPSTREAM PAC ENERGY MAY
BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  WITHIN
THE ERN MEAN TROUGH THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE SHRTWV DETAIL ISSUES
THAT LEAD TO DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING ASSOC FRONTAL SYSTEMS
MID-LATE PERIOD.  WITH SOME DETAIL DIFFS PRESENT EVEN DURING THE
WEEKEND AND A COMPROMISE STILL LOOKING BEST FOR RESOLVING
AMPLITUDE DIFFS LATE... PREFER TO START WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF THE
18Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF MEANS THROUGH THE DAYS 3-7 SAT-WED TIME FRAME.


LATE IN THE PERIOD THE ECMWF MEAN HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT SHARPER/WWD
WITH ITS MODEST TROUGHING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST.
GEFS/CMC MEANS HAVE TENDED TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER HGTS OVER THIS AREA
DURING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.  THE FULL ENSEMBLE SPREAD OVER THE
ERN PAC/WRN NOAM BECOMES FAIRLY WIDE BY NEXT TUE-WED SO CONFIDENCE
IS NOT ESPECIALLY GREAT.  TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO D+8 MEANS
SHOWING A STRONG CORE OF NEGATIVE HGT ANOMALIES OVER THE CNTRL PAC
SUGGEST THAT ENERGY REACHING THE NORTHWEST SHOULD FALL INTO A
POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH SOMEWHAT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE 12Z
ECMWF MEAN... FAVORING AT LEAST HALF WEIGHTING OF THE GEFS IDEA.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND ITS PRIOR RUN OFFER YET ANOTHER IDEA WITH A DEEP
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NERN PAC.

FARTHER EWD... THERE HAS BEEN A DEEPER TREND WITH THE CORE OF THE
TROUGH ALOFT NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME HGTS FCST TO
BE AT LEAST 3-4 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL ON SAT.  ANOMALIES SHOULD
BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS EXTREME THEREAFTER BUT WITH THE MEAN TROUGH
REMAINING AMPLIFIED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE 18Z GFS BECAME
QUITE AMPLIFIED IN THE EAST BY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE 00Z RUN AGREES
BETTER WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER THE NERN QUADRANT OF
THE CONUS... EXTENDING FOR A TIME INTO THE TN VLY.  AT FIRST A
LEADING COLD FRONT NEAR THE EAST COAST WILL FOCUS RNFL INTO NEW
ENG WHILE COLD AIR ALOFT WITHIN THE SUPPORTING UPR TROUGH SHOULD
ENCOURAGE SHOWERY WEATHER OVER THE GRTLKS.  DEPTH OF THE UPR
SYSTEM COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A LITTLE SNOW AT SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR THE UPR GRTLKS DURING THE WEEKEND.  ONE OR MORE
TRAILING UPSTREAM IMPULSES/SFC SYSTEMS SHOULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AREAS OF RNFL.  ELSEWHERE RNFL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FL AS THE
INITIAL E COAST FRONT STALLS JUST S OF THE STATE... EXTREME SRN
TX... AND TO THE NRN PAC NW WHICH MAY SEE LGT AMTS.  EXPECT QUITE
CHILLY DAYTIME TEMPS OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH
READINGS 10-20F BELOW NORMAL.  READINGS SHOULD TREND CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  MEANWHILE THE EVOLUTION ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM TEMPS OVER THE WEST INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COOLING TREND... WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
EXTENDING INTO THE CNTRL-SRN PLAINS BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

RAUSCH

$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 010630
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
230 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 04 2014 - 12Z WED OCT 08 2014

...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...

FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FCST OF AN
AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH MEAN PATTERN THAT SHOULD HAVE ABOVE
AVG PREDICTABILITY IN THE LARGE SCALE.  HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES TO ARISE REGARDING HOW MUCH UPSTREAM PAC ENERGY MAY
BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  WITHIN
THE ERN MEAN TROUGH THERE ARE SMALLER SCALE SHRTWV DETAIL ISSUES
THAT LEAD TO DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING ASSOC FRONTAL SYSTEMS
MID-LATE PERIOD.  WITH SOME DETAIL DIFFS PRESENT EVEN DURING THE
WEEKEND AND A COMPROMISE STILL LOOKING BEST FOR RESOLVING
AMPLITUDE DIFFS LATE... PREFER TO START WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF THE
18Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF MEANS THROUGH THE DAYS 3-7 SAT-WED TIME FRAME.


LATE IN THE PERIOD THE ECMWF MEAN HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT SHARPER/WWD
WITH ITS MODEST TROUGHING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST.
GEFS/CMC MEANS HAVE TENDED TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER HGTS OVER THIS AREA
DURING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.  THE FULL ENSEMBLE SPREAD OVER THE
ERN PAC/WRN NOAM BECOMES FAIRLY WIDE BY NEXT TUE-WED SO CONFIDENCE
IS NOT ESPECIALLY GREAT.  TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO D+8 MEANS
SHOWING A STRONG CORE OF NEGATIVE HGT ANOMALIES OVER THE CNTRL PAC
SUGGEST THAT ENERGY REACHING THE NORTHWEST SHOULD FALL INTO A
POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH SOMEWHAT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE 12Z
ECMWF MEAN... FAVORING AT LEAST HALF WEIGHTING OF THE GEFS IDEA.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND ITS PRIOR RUN OFFER YET ANOTHER IDEA WITH A DEEP
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NERN PAC.

FARTHER EWD... THERE HAS BEEN A DEEPER TREND WITH THE CORE OF THE
TROUGH ALOFT NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME HGTS FCST TO
BE AT LEAST 3-4 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL ON SAT.  ANOMALIES SHOULD
BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS EXTREME THEREAFTER BUT WITH THE MEAN TROUGH
REMAINING AMPLIFIED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE 18Z GFS BECAME
QUITE AMPLIFIED IN THE EAST BY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE 00Z RUN AGREES
BETTER WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF PCPN SHOULD BE OVER THE NERN QUADRANT OF
THE CONUS... EXTENDING FOR A TIME INTO THE TN VLY.  AT FIRST A
LEADING COLD FRONT NEAR THE EAST COAST WILL FOCUS RNFL INTO NEW
ENG WHILE COLD AIR ALOFT WITHIN THE SUPPORTING UPR TROUGH SHOULD
ENCOURAGE SHOWERY WEATHER OVER THE GRTLKS.  DEPTH OF THE UPR
SYSTEM COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A LITTLE SNOW AT SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR THE UPR GRTLKS DURING THE WEEKEND.  ONE OR MORE
TRAILING UPSTREAM IMPULSES/SFC SYSTEMS SHOULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY AREAS OF RNFL.  ELSEWHERE RNFL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO FL AS THE
INITIAL E COAST FRONT STALLS JUST S OF THE STATE... EXTREME SRN
TX... AND TO THE NRN PAC NW WHICH MAY SEE LGT AMTS.  EXPECT QUITE
CHILLY DAYTIME TEMPS OVER THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH
READINGS 10-20F BELOW NORMAL.  READINGS SHOULD TREND CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  MEANWHILE THE EVOLUTION ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM TEMPS OVER THE WEST INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE A COOLING TREND... WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
EXTENDING INTO THE CNTRL-SRN PLAINS BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

RAUSCH

$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 301949
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VALID 00Z WED OCT 01 2014 - 00Z FRI OCT 03 2014

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

A DISSIPATING FRONT OVER FLORIDA WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  IN
ADDITION, AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TO NEAR CAPE COD BY THURSDAY.  AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.  THE ENERGY WILL AID IN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.

MEANWHILE, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD TO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY.  MOISTURE WILL
POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

AS MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.  ADDITIONALLY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THURSDAY.  THE ENERGY WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.  AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES ALSO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.  A THIRD PIECE OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ENTERING
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING, FROM CANADA, WILL
PRODUCE RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.


ZIEGENFELDER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 301949
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VALID 00Z WED OCT 01 2014 - 00Z FRI OCT 03 2014

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

A DISSIPATING FRONT OVER FLORIDA WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  IN
ADDITION, AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TO NEAR CAPE COD BY THURSDAY.  AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.  THE ENERGY WILL AID IN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.

MEANWHILE, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD TO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY.  MOISTURE WILL
POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN
WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

AS MOISTURE FLOWS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.  ADDITIONALLY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES BY THURSDAY.  THE ENERGY WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.  AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES ALSO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.  A THIRD PIECE OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ENTERING
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING, FROM CANADA, WILL
PRODUCE RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.


ZIEGENFELDER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS06 KWBC 301924
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE SEPTEMBER 30 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 06 - 10 2014

TODAY`S MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST CIRCULATION FOR THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEAN AREAS. THERE IS GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF A 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE WEST, AT LEAST AT THE LATITUDE OF THE MEAN POLAR JET. THE SPREAD
AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OF THE ECMWF, GEFS ENSEMBLES IS CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER THAN USUAL, RESULTING IN A RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN IN THE
MEAN.  THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, ON THE OTHER HAND, HAVE A LOWER SPREAD THAN
USUAL FOR THAT MODEL, AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN
WITH AN EASTERN TROUGH AND WESTERN RIDGE. THE BLEND IS A FAIRLY EVEN MIX AMONG
MODELS, HOWEVER, THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE AMONG CANADIAN MEMBERS FOR AN FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED PRODUCES A HIGHER AMPLITUDE CIRCULATION IN THE BLEND THAN EITHER THE
GEFS OR ECMWF MEANS PREDICT.

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS, UNDER AN ANTICIPATED BROAD RIDGE. MODEL FORECASTS DO NOT SHOW A GREAT
DEAL OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH, SO THE CHANCES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES,
WHERE MODEL AGREEMENT IS BEST. ELSEWHERE IN THE EAST, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED, EXCEPT NEAR MAINE WHICH MAY SEE ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. ALASKA TEMPERATURES ARE SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THE STATE IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER ABOVE-NORMAL UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS, BUT TOOLS BASED ON MODEL PREDICTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOW ELEVATED
CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST. THE
CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED THROUGHOUT COASTAL AREAS OF
ALASKA DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

TOOLS FAVOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. MODELS SUGGEST AN ACTIVE JET OVER THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER, ELEVATING
CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.  TODAY`S PRECIPITATION
TOOLS INDICATE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE- MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SUGGESTING
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY`S OUTLOOK. THE CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE ENHANCED FOR MOST OF THE ALASKA MAINLAND, WITH NEAR- TO
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR THE PANHANDLE AND ALONG PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST AND THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF
TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
MODELS AGREEING WELL ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LONG WAVE FEATURES, BUT
DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMPLITUDE, AND HIGH SPREAD AMONG ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 08 - 14 2014

THE 8-14 DAY MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
6-10 DAY MEAN. THIS LEADS TO A TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR 8-14 DAYS THAT IS QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FOR THE CONUS. THE SPREAD AMONG SOLUTIONS FROM
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEFS MODELS IS VERY HIGH, WITH MEMBERS ROUGHLY SPLIT BETWEEN
DEVELOPING A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, AND PERSISTING THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST.  THE CANADIAN MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERN TROUGH,
AS DO THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS FROM THE 6 AND 12Z GFS.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
VIEW OF THE LARGE SPREAD IN TODAY`S SOLUTIONS.

TEMPERATURE TOOLS BASED ON PREDICTED NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUGGEST ELEVATED
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
CONUS, AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS FORECAST,
HOWEVER, WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A PREDICTED TROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW IN THE
8-14 DAY PERIOD ELEVATES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
ALASKA AND ELEVATES THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALONG
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, AND THE
PANHANDLE.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO HIGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD AMONG GEFS AND CANADIAN MEMBERS.

FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 16

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20080921 - 19511013 - 19520910 - 19690920 - 19631003


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19511012 - 20080920 - 19520909 - 19820928 - 19571011


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 06 - 10 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    N    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    N    N
TENNESSEE   N    B     ALABAMA     N    B     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        N    N     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  N    B
MARYLAND    N    B     DELAWARE    N    B     VIRGINIA    N    B
N CAROLINA  N    B     S CAROLINA  N    B     GEORGIA     N    B
FL PNHDL    N    B     FL PENIN    N    B     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    N    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 08 - 14 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   N    N     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      N    N     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    A
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$





000
FXUS06 KWBC 301924
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE SEPTEMBER 30 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 06 - 10 2014

TODAY`S MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST CIRCULATION FOR THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA AND ADJACENT OCEAN AREAS. THERE IS GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF A 500-HPA TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE WEST, AT LEAST AT THE LATITUDE OF THE MEAN POLAR JET. THE SPREAD
AMONG THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS OF THE ECMWF, GEFS ENSEMBLES IS CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER THAN USUAL, RESULTING IN A RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN IN THE
MEAN.  THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, ON THE OTHER HAND, HAVE A LOWER SPREAD THAN
USUAL FOR THAT MODEL, AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN
WITH AN EASTERN TROUGH AND WESTERN RIDGE. THE BLEND IS A FAIRLY EVEN MIX AMONG
MODELS, HOWEVER, THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE AMONG CANADIAN MEMBERS FOR AN FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED PRODUCES A HIGHER AMPLITUDE CIRCULATION IN THE BLEND THAN EITHER THE
GEFS OR ECMWF MEANS PREDICT.

ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS, UNDER AN ANTICIPATED BROAD RIDGE. MODEL FORECASTS DO NOT SHOW A GREAT
DEAL OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH, SO THE CHANCES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NEAR THE GREAT LAKES,
WHERE MODEL AGREEMENT IS BEST. ELSEWHERE IN THE EAST, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED, EXCEPT NEAR MAINE WHICH MAY SEE ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. ALASKA TEMPERATURES ARE SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THE STATE IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER ABOVE-NORMAL UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS, BUT TOOLS BASED ON MODEL PREDICTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOW ELEVATED
CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST. THE
CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED THROUGHOUT COASTAL AREAS OF
ALASKA DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

TOOLS FAVOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE RIDGE EXPECTED OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. MODELS SUGGEST AN ACTIVE JET OVER THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER, ELEVATING
CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.  TODAY`S PRECIPITATION
TOOLS INDICATE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE- MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FROM TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SUGGESTING
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY`S OUTLOOK. THE CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE ENHANCED FOR MOST OF THE ALASKA MAINLAND, WITH NEAR- TO
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR THE PANHANDLE AND ALONG PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST AND THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF
TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
MODELS AGREEING WELL ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LONG WAVE FEATURES, BUT
DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMPLITUDE, AND HIGH SPREAD AMONG ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 08 - 14 2014

THE 8-14 DAY MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
6-10 DAY MEAN. THIS LEADS TO A TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR 8-14 DAYS THAT IS QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FOR THE CONUS. THE SPREAD AMONG SOLUTIONS FROM
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEFS MODELS IS VERY HIGH, WITH MEMBERS ROUGHLY SPLIT BETWEEN
DEVELOPING A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, AND PERSISTING THE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST.  THE CANADIAN MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERN TROUGH,
AS DO THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS FROM THE 6 AND 12Z GFS.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
VIEW OF THE LARGE SPREAD IN TODAY`S SOLUTIONS.

TEMPERATURE TOOLS BASED ON PREDICTED NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUGGEST ELEVATED
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
CONUS, AND ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS FORECAST,
HOWEVER, WITH CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A PREDICTED TROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW IN THE
8-14 DAY PERIOD ELEVATES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
ALASKA AND ELEVATES THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALONG
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA, SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, AND THE
PANHANDLE.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO HIGH ENSEMBLE SPREAD AMONG GEFS AND CANADIAN MEMBERS.

FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 16

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20080921 - 19511013 - 19520910 - 19690920 - 19631003


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19511012 - 20080920 - 19520909 - 19820928 - 19571011


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 06 - 10 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    N    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    N    N
TENNESSEE   N    B     ALABAMA     N    B     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        N    N     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  N    B
MARYLAND    N    B     DELAWARE    N    B     VIRGINIA    N    B
N CAROLINA  N    B     S CAROLINA  N    B     GEORGIA     N    B
FL PNHDL    N    B     FL PENIN    N    B     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    N    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 08 - 14 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   N    N     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      N    N     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    A
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 301555
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1154 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VALID 12Z FRI OCT 03 2014 - 12Z TUE OCT 07 2014


THE ENSEMBLE MEANS STILL TELL THE TALE THE BEST WITH THE FLOW OVER
NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE WAKE OF THE BIG CYCLONE
CLEARING THE GREAT LAKES DAY 3, THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES IN THE NEW BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST--THE MAIN REASON FOR GOING WITH THE MEANS.
THE GREAT LAKES LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL TAKE MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THEM--SAVE THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE THE
POLAR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME AND GO IN TIDES.


CISCO

$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 301555
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1154 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VALID 12Z FRI OCT 03 2014 - 12Z TUE OCT 07 2014


THE ENSEMBLE MEANS STILL TELL THE TALE THE BEST WITH THE FLOW OVER
NORTH AMERICA AT THE MEDIUM RANGE. IN THE WAKE OF THE BIG CYCLONE
CLEARING THE GREAT LAKES DAY 3, THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES IN THE NEW BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST--THE MAIN REASON FOR GOING WITH THE MEANS.
THE GREAT LAKES LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL TAKE MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THEM--SAVE THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE THE
POLAR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME AND GO IN TIDES.


CISCO

$$







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