Home > Products > Valid Products > PMD

000
FXUS02 KWBC 050442
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1241 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

VALID 12Z SAT AUG 08 2015 - 12Z WED AUG 12 2015

A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS WPC NATIONAL FORECAST (TEMPS/POPS AND MASS
FIELDS)---ALONG WITH THE 4/12Z ECENS/NAEFS MEANS APPEARS TO VERY
REASONABLY HANDLE THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN. THE NATIONAL
FORECAST AND PROJECTED FRONTAL PROGRESSIONS LOOK TO BE ON
TRACK---AND RATHER `PROGRESSIVE` FOR A MID-AUGUST AND MID-LATITUDE
NORTH AMERICA.

THE UNUSUAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT---THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONES
ANCHORING EACH COAST---PROVIDE A VERY STEADY STREAM OF NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. AND IT`S A LESS
HUMID ONE---THAT DRAPES ACROSS THE MISSOURI/PLATTE VALLEYS AND
DOWNSTREAM TO THE OHIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST.

THERE WILL BE NO RELIEF FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING VERY LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD AND THE
WEST COAST SHOULD BE IN AN UNUSUALLY ACTIVE PATTERN ---FOR A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN MID AUGUST. THAT BEING---A HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FREQUENCY OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES---MIGRATING AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONTS ROLLING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE---IN MID-AUGUST FORM---WITH AN ACTIVE
MONSOON SWEEPING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER HALF OF THE
RIO GRANDE.

WHAT IS AN IMPRESSIVE OUTCOME OF THE PATTERN---IS HOW NICELY THE
PERSISTENCE AND DURATION OF NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
MISSOURI VALLEY SPREADS THE MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TIME---AND POOLS THIS AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE LOWER 48. TEMPERATURES ARE PRACTICALLY A `PERSISTENCE`
FORECAST---AND SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

VOJTESAK













$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 050442
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1241 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

VALID 12Z SAT AUG 08 2015 - 12Z WED AUG 12 2015

A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS WPC NATIONAL FORECAST (TEMPS/POPS AND MASS
FIELDS)---ALONG WITH THE 4/12Z ECENS/NAEFS MEANS APPEARS TO VERY
REASONABLY HANDLE THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN. THE NATIONAL
FORECAST AND PROJECTED FRONTAL PROGRESSIONS LOOK TO BE ON
TRACK---AND RATHER `PROGRESSIVE` FOR A MID-AUGUST AND MID-LATITUDE
NORTH AMERICA.

THE UNUSUAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT---THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONES
ANCHORING EACH COAST---PROVIDE A VERY STEADY STREAM OF NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. AND IT`S A LESS
HUMID ONE---THAT DRAPES ACROSS THE MISSOURI/PLATTE VALLEYS AND
DOWNSTREAM TO THE OHIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST.

THERE WILL BE NO RELIEF FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING VERY LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD AND THE
WEST COAST SHOULD BE IN AN UNUSUALLY ACTIVE PATTERN ---FOR A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN MID AUGUST. THAT BEING---A HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FREQUENCY OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES---MIGRATING AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONTS ROLLING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE---IN MID-AUGUST FORM---WITH AN ACTIVE
MONSOON SWEEPING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER HALF OF THE
RIO GRANDE.

WHAT IS AN IMPRESSIVE OUTCOME OF THE PATTERN---IS HOW NICELY THE
PERSISTENCE AND DURATION OF NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
MISSOURI VALLEY SPREADS THE MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TIME---AND POOLS THIS AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE LOWER 48. TEMPERATURES ARE PRACTICALLY A `PERSISTENCE`
FORECAST---AND SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

VOJTESAK













$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 050442
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1241 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

VALID 12Z SAT AUG 08 2015 - 12Z WED AUG 12 2015

A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS WPC NATIONAL FORECAST (TEMPS/POPS AND MASS
FIELDS)---ALONG WITH THE 4/12Z ECENS/NAEFS MEANS APPEARS TO VERY
REASONABLY HANDLE THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN. THE NATIONAL
FORECAST AND PROJECTED FRONTAL PROGRESSIONS LOOK TO BE ON
TRACK---AND RATHER `PROGRESSIVE` FOR A MID-AUGUST AND MID-LATITUDE
NORTH AMERICA.

THE UNUSUAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT---THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONES
ANCHORING EACH COAST---PROVIDE A VERY STEADY STREAM OF NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. AND IT`S A LESS
HUMID ONE---THAT DRAPES ACROSS THE MISSOURI/PLATTE VALLEYS AND
DOWNSTREAM TO THE OHIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST.

THERE WILL BE NO RELIEF FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING VERY LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD AND THE
WEST COAST SHOULD BE IN AN UNUSUALLY ACTIVE PATTERN ---FOR A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN MID AUGUST. THAT BEING---A HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FREQUENCY OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES---MIGRATING AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONTS ROLLING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE---IN MID-AUGUST FORM---WITH AN ACTIVE
MONSOON SWEEPING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER HALF OF THE
RIO GRANDE.

WHAT IS AN IMPRESSIVE OUTCOME OF THE PATTERN---IS HOW NICELY THE
PERSISTENCE AND DURATION OF NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
MISSOURI VALLEY SPREADS THE MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TIME---AND POOLS THIS AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE LOWER 48. TEMPERATURES ARE PRACTICALLY A `PERSISTENCE`
FORECAST---AND SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

VOJTESAK













$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 050442
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1241 AM EDT WED AUG 05 2015

VALID 12Z SAT AUG 08 2015 - 12Z WED AUG 12 2015

A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS WPC NATIONAL FORECAST (TEMPS/POPS AND MASS
FIELDS)---ALONG WITH THE 4/12Z ECENS/NAEFS MEANS APPEARS TO VERY
REASONABLY HANDLE THE COMPLEXITY OF THE PATTERN. THE NATIONAL
FORECAST AND PROJECTED FRONTAL PROGRESSIONS LOOK TO BE ON
TRACK---AND RATHER `PROGRESSIVE` FOR A MID-AUGUST AND MID-LATITUDE
NORTH AMERICA.

THE UNUSUAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT---THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONES
ANCHORING EACH COAST---PROVIDE A VERY STEADY STREAM OF NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CONTINENT. AND IT`S A LESS
HUMID ONE---THAT DRAPES ACROSS THE MISSOURI/PLATTE VALLEYS AND
DOWNSTREAM TO THE OHIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST.

THERE WILL BE NO RELIEF FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING VERY LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD AND THE
WEST COAST SHOULD BE IN AN UNUSUALLY ACTIVE PATTERN ---FOR A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN MID AUGUST. THAT BEING---A HIGHER THAN
NORMAL FREQUENCY OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES---MIGRATING AHEAD OF THE
PACIFIC FRONTS ROLLING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND CANADIAN
ROCKIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE---IN MID-AUGUST FORM---WITH AN ACTIVE
MONSOON SWEEPING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER HALF OF THE
RIO GRANDE.

WHAT IS AN IMPRESSIVE OUTCOME OF THE PATTERN---IS HOW NICELY THE
PERSISTENCE AND DURATION OF NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
MISSOURI VALLEY SPREADS THE MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TIME---AND POOLS THIS AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE LOWER 48. TEMPERATURES ARE PRACTICALLY A `PERSISTENCE`
FORECAST---AND SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

VOJTESAK













$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 042000
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

VALID 00Z WED AUG 05 2015 - 00Z FRI AUG 07 2015

...SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

...TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

MUCH OF THE NATION`S ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY, SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE PRESENT TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT, THE PORTION EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WARM AND MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, HELPING TO REINFORCE A NEW,
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE WPC AND
SPC, RESPECTIVELY, THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUT WEST, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK OVER THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL KEEP MOISTURE BELOW
TYPICAL MONSOONAL AVERAGES, SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL ACT TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE EARLY AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH
ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. FARTHER TO THE EAST HOWEVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 100S CAN BE EXPECTED INTO MUCH OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO, TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THROUGH THURSDAY.

OTTO

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 042000
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

VALID 00Z WED AUG 05 2015 - 00Z FRI AUG 07 2015

...SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...

...TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

MUCH OF THE NATION`S ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY, SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE PRESENT TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. WHILE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT, THE PORTION EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.
WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WARM AND MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, HELPING TO REINFORCE A NEW,
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE WPC AND
SPC, RESPECTIVELY, THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUT WEST, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK OVER THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL KEEP MOISTURE BELOW
TYPICAL MONSOONAL AVERAGES, SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL ACT TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE EARLY AUGUST NORMALS THROUGH
ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. FARTHER TO THE EAST HOWEVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 100S CAN BE EXPECTED INTO MUCH OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO, TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THROUGH THURSDAY.

OTTO

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS06 KWBC 041901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE AUGUST 04 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 10 - 14 2015

TODAY`S MODELS EXHIBIT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA FLOW
PATTERN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT TROUGHS OVER
WESTERN ALASKA AND NEAR THE EAST AND WEST COASTS OF THE CONUS, AND RIDGING OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
THE EXPECTED CIRCULATION PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEPICTIONS.

500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN
CONUS AND ALASKA, AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN AND INTERIOR
WESTERN CONUS, AND NORTHEASTERN ALASKA, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE
ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS.

THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGHS OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS
TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE, AND THE NORTHWEST CONUS.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF
YESTERDAY`S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7, 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG VARIOUS MODELS AND TOOLS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY CONFLICTING
SIGNALS FOR THE TOOLS OVER ALASKA.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 18 2015

MODEL FORECASTS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD FAVOR A SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
CIRCULATION PATTERN COMPARED TO THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE
MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. 500-HPA ANOMALIES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE SMALL OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN, WITH SLIGHTY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA.

THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL/
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH MUCH OF
THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA. THE TROUGHS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST CONUS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST.

THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
THE CENTRAL CONUS. ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHILE RISING HEIGHTS FAVOR BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, WESTERN ALASKA, AND
THE ALEUTIANS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 10% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 10, 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF
YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND A RELATIVELY STABLE
PATTERN, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY A DEAMPLIFING FLOW PATTERN AND SMALL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 20

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19720808 - 20080806 - 20020731 - 19620724 - 19920730


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19720808 - 19620723 - 20080805 - 20020731 - 19930805


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 10 - 14 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       B    N     NEVADA      B    N
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        B    N     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    A    B
TENNESSEE   A    B     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 18 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    N     NEVADA      N    B
W MONTANA   B    N     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        N    N     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    N    N
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    N    B
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  N    N
MARYLAND    N    N     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  N    N
AK S INT    N    B     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$





000
FXUS06 KWBC 041901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE AUGUST 04 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 10 - 14 2015

TODAY`S MODELS EXHIBIT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA FLOW
PATTERN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT TROUGHS OVER
WESTERN ALASKA AND NEAR THE EAST AND WEST COASTS OF THE CONUS, AND RIDGING OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
THE EXPECTED CIRCULATION PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEPICTIONS.

500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN
CONUS AND ALASKA, AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN AND INTERIOR
WESTERN CONUS, AND NORTHEASTERN ALASKA, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE
ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS.

THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGHS OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS
TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE, AND THE NORTHWEST CONUS.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF
YESTERDAY`S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7, 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG VARIOUS MODELS AND TOOLS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY CONFLICTING
SIGNALS FOR THE TOOLS OVER ALASKA.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 18 2015

MODEL FORECASTS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD FAVOR A SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
CIRCULATION PATTERN COMPARED TO THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE
MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. 500-HPA ANOMALIES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE SMALL OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN, WITH SLIGHTY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA.

THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL/
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH MUCH OF
THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA. THE TROUGHS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST CONUS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST.

THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
THE CENTRAL CONUS. ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHILE RISING HEIGHTS FAVOR BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, WESTERN ALASKA, AND
THE ALEUTIANS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 10% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 10, 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF
YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND A RELATIVELY STABLE
PATTERN, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY A DEAMPLIFING FLOW PATTERN AND SMALL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 20

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19720808 - 20080806 - 20020731 - 19620724 - 19920730


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19720808 - 19620723 - 20080805 - 20020731 - 19930805


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 10 - 14 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       B    N     NEVADA      B    N
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        B    N     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    A    B
TENNESSEE   A    B     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 18 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    N     NEVADA      N    B
W MONTANA   B    N     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        N    N     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    N    N
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    N    B
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  N    N
MARYLAND    N    N     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  N    N
AK S INT    N    B     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$





000
FXUS06 KWBC 041901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE AUGUST 04 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 10 - 14 2015

TODAY`S MODELS EXHIBIT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA FLOW
PATTERN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT TROUGHS OVER
WESTERN ALASKA AND NEAR THE EAST AND WEST COASTS OF THE CONUS, AND RIDGING OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
THE EXPECTED CIRCULATION PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEPICTIONS.

500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN
CONUS AND ALASKA, AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN AND INTERIOR
WESTERN CONUS, AND NORTHEASTERN ALASKA, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE
ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS.

THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGHS OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS
TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE, AND THE NORTHWEST CONUS.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF
YESTERDAY`S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7, 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG VARIOUS MODELS AND TOOLS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY CONFLICTING
SIGNALS FOR THE TOOLS OVER ALASKA.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 18 2015

MODEL FORECASTS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD FAVOR A SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
CIRCULATION PATTERN COMPARED TO THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE
MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. 500-HPA ANOMALIES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE SMALL OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN, WITH SLIGHTY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA.

THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL/
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH MUCH OF
THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA. THE TROUGHS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST CONUS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST.

THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
THE CENTRAL CONUS. ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHILE RISING HEIGHTS FAVOR BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, WESTERN ALASKA, AND
THE ALEUTIANS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 10% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 10, 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF
YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND A RELATIVELY STABLE
PATTERN, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY A DEAMPLIFING FLOW PATTERN AND SMALL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 20

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19720808 - 20080806 - 20020731 - 19620724 - 19920730


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19720808 - 19620723 - 20080805 - 20020731 - 19930805


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 10 - 14 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       B    N     NEVADA      B    N
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        B    N     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    A    B
TENNESSEE   A    B     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 18 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    N     NEVADA      N    B
W MONTANA   B    N     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        N    N     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    N    N
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    N    B
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  N    N
MARYLAND    N    N     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  N    N
AK S INT    N    B     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$






000
FXUS06 KWBC 041901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE AUGUST 04 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 10 - 14 2015

TODAY`S MODELS EXHIBIT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA FLOW
PATTERN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT TROUGHS OVER
WESTERN ALASKA AND NEAR THE EAST AND WEST COASTS OF THE CONUS, AND RIDGING OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED WITH
THE EXPECTED CIRCULATION PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEPICTIONS.

500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN AND WESTERN
CONUS AND ALASKA, AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS
FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN AND INTERIOR
WESTERN CONUS, AND NORTHEASTERN ALASKA, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE
ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS.

THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE TROUGHS OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS
TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE, AND THE NORTHWEST CONUS.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF
TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF
YESTERDAY`S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7, 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG VARIOUS MODELS AND TOOLS, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY CONFLICTING
SIGNALS FOR THE TOOLS OVER ALASKA.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 18 2015

MODEL FORECASTS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD FAVOR A SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
CIRCULATION PATTERN COMPARED TO THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE
MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE A FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. 500-HPA ANOMALIES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE SMALL OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN, WITH SLIGHTY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ANTICIPATED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA.

THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL/
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH MUCH OF
THE SOUTH COAST OF ALASKA. THE TROUGHS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST CONUS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST.

THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
THE CENTRAL CONUS. ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST WHILE RISING HEIGHTS FAVOR BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, WESTERN ALASKA, AND
THE ALEUTIANS.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 10% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 10, 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF
YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND A RELATIVELY STABLE
PATTERN, OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY A DEAMPLIFING FLOW PATTERN AND SMALL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 20

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19720808 - 20080806 - 20020731 - 19620724 - 19920730


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19720808 - 19620723 - 20080805 - 20020731 - 19930805


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 10 - 14 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       B    N     NEVADA      B    N
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        B    N     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    A    B
TENNESSEE   A    B     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 12 - 18 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       N    N     NEVADA      N    B
W MONTANA   B    N     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        N    N     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    N    N
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    N    B
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  N    N
MARYLAND    N    N     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  N    N
AK S INT    N    B     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 041815
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

DISCUSSION FROM AUG 04/12 UTC: BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHWEST USA IS PROVIDING THE STEERING FLOW TO A
TUTT LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST MEXICO. THROUGH THIS EVENING THE LOW IS
TO RELOCATE SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST MEXICO WHERE WE EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OTHER
CONVECTION IS TO CLUSTER ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...
WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM. THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MAXIMA INCREASES TO 15-30MM.

ANOTHER TUTT TO THE EAST DOMINATES THE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN-CENTRAL AMERICA. A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE BASIN PUSHES
THIS TROUGH WEST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH REFLECTS WELL AT MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE... SUSTAINING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN-CUBA EARLY IN THE CYCLE. THIS IS TO ALSO
RELOCATE WEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN/NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE
SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING/THURSDAY
MORNING. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THIS IS TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS
CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM. AS IT RETROGRESSES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THE TUTT
IS TO INITIALLY ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST
HONDURAS WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVER
BELIZE-YUCATAN/GUATEMALA THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE SOUTHERN
STATES OF MEXICO EXPECTING MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO THEN AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST
STATES ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WHEN WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.

ON ITS WAKE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN TO CENTRAL AMERICA-NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. AS IT BUILDS
ACROSS THE BASIN THIS IS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WINDS
CAP. AT LOW LEVELS THIS SUSTAINS A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL-WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THE ENSUING
GRADIENT OVER THE BASIN FAVORS BRISK EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS IS TO PERSIST THROUGH
MIDMORNING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH GRADIENT TO THEN GRADUALLY SLACKEN
AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE TO CONFINE TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE WINDS ARE TO
PEAK AT 20-25KT. OTHERWISE WINDS OF 10-15KT ARE TO PREVAIL. EARLY
IN THE PERIOD THE BRISK EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO FAVOR GENERATION OF
STREAMERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...BUT AS THE WINDS WEAKEN
THESE ARE TO WANE. SEA/LAND BREEZES ARE TO THEN BECOME ACTIVE
ACROSS THE LARGER ISLANDS.

BROAD TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS TO SLOWLY RETROGRESS TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATER ON THURSDAY. AS IT RETROGRESSES IT IS TO MERGE WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. AT MID LEVELS THIS IS
TO INITIALLY FAVOR A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. THROUGH THURSDAY THIS WEAKENS TO AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT
MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. LATER IN THE WEEK
THIS SETTLES OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...TO FAVOR AN
INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION PATTERN AS IT INTERACTS WITH SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

THE ATLANTIC ITCZ LIES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. AS IT REMAINS NORTH OF THE
GUIANAS...IN THIS AREA SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. OVER VENEZUELA NET
RELATED CONVECTION IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA TODAY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. ACROSS WESTERN COLOMBIA...MEANWHILE...EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. MOST
INTENSE...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE MAXIMA
IS TO PEAK AT 20-30MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96        TYPE
46W      48W    51W    53W    56W    59W    62W    64W       TUTT
INDCD.
55W      57W    59W    62W    64W    66W    69W    71W       TW
78W      81W    DISSIPATES                                   TUTT
INDCD.

THE RETROGRESSING TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUSTAINS AN
INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. THIS MOVES ACROSS
THE ISLAND CHAIN TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 10MM. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE WINDWARDS ARE TO
PEAK AT 10-15MM.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W REMAINS ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF
THE RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE WEST. AS IT PULLS
ACROSS THE GUIANAS THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN IT IS TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS...HOWEVER...ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLES WHERE THE MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT
10-15MM. OVER THE VIRGIN ISLES-PUERTO RICO TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA
THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND WIDELY
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 10MM. OVER VENEZUELA...IN INTERACTION WITH THE
NET...EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM.

THE TUTT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUSTAINS AN INDUCED/INVERTED
TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY TRADES ALONG 78W. BUT THIS IS TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...AS IT MOVES TO
EASTERN NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST HONDURAS EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXSA20 KWBC 041709
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
109 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

NOTE: RISK FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN
CENTRAL CHILE CONTINUES WITH PEAK DEVELOPING BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND FRIDAY EVENING. NOW THERE IS ALSO A RISK LARGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE RIO DE LA PLATA BASIN DUE TO THE
PERSISTENCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS STARTING
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND NEAR/ALONG SLOW MOVING FRONT. THIS
COULD LEAD TO AREAS WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS APPROACHING 150MM
IN THREE DAYS. ALSO NOTE THAT THE RISK FOR SEVERE CONVECTION IS
MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY AND ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE POSSIBLE.

MODEL DISCUSSION (VALID FROM AUG 04 AT 0000 UTC): GLOBAL MODELS
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
108-120 HRS. THE ONLY MODEL MAKING SEVERAL CORRECTIONS IS THE
UKMET. CONFIDENCE ON THE SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS IS
HIGH THROUGH 108-120 HRS ON THE LONG WAVE. SOME PROBLEMS ARISE IN
NORTHERN PATAGONIA AND THE SOUTHERN CONE BY 96-108 HRS.

TRANSITION INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW-PROGRESSING LONG WAVE
PATTERN CONTINUES...WITH A LARGE TROUGH TO DOMINATE CHILE/EASTERN
PACIFIC AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST FROM BOLIVIA/PARAGUAY INTO
URUGUAY/SOUTH BRASIL AND THE SOUTH ATLANTIC INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION CONSTRAINING TO MOST OF CHILE
AND CENTRAL ARGENTINA WHILE SEASONALLY QUIET CONDITIONS DOMINATE
TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA.

UPPER JETS ARE SETTING NEAR 30S IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS IS
ALLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ALONG THESE
LATITUDES...SOME OF WHICH WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL CHILE...STARTING WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
FIRST TROUGH TO ENHANCE ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN CHILE
LATE ON TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL ARRIVE ACCOMPANIED WITH AN
ELONGATED FRONT AND A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION TO PRODUCE
MODERATE RAINS BETWEEN TEMUCO AND LOS LAGOS WITH AMOUNTS OF
25-50MM/DAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH WILL THEN DIG AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL. AS THE TROUGH DIGS AND SURFACE
FRONT MEANDERS NORTHWARD...A MOISTURE POOL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
NEARING 35MM WILL BE DRAWN FROM THE WEST INTO CENTRAL CHILE. THIS
WILL SETUP THE BEGINNING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT. DURING WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY THE BULK OF THE RAINS
WILL CONCENTRATE BETWEEN CONCEPCION AND CHILLAN/TALCA WITH MAXIMUM
ACCUMULATIONS OF 35-70MM/DAY. HEAVY RAINS WILL START TO AFFECT THE
VALPARAISO REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY TO PRODUCE MAXIMA OF
20-35MM/DAY BY EARLY THURSDAY. ALSO DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECTING
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY BETWEEN TEMUCO AND PUERTO MONTT. BY THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN TALCA AND
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LA SERENA WHERE EXPECTING MAXIMA OF
50-100MM/DAY. NOTE THAT LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
NORTHWESTERN SLOPES DUE TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. TO THE SOUTH
BETWEEN CHILLAN AND VALDIVIA EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY.
AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE DURING FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY IN THE COQUIMBO REGION...AND
MAXIMA OF 05-10MM/DAY IN INLAND LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE VALPARAISO
AND LOS LAGOS REGION. MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL IN CENTRAL CHILE WILL ALSO
BE AN ISSUE. EXPECTING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP DURING WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO MAXIMA OF 50-100CM/DAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ANDES. DURING THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY EXPECTING MAXIMA
OF 100-150CM. AMOUNTS WILL START DECREASING AFTER AS SNOWFALL
SHIFTS INTO THE COQUIMBO/ATACAMA REGIONS WITH DAILY MAXIMA IN THE
ORDER OF 15-30CM.

AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY CROSSES THE ANDES INTO
ARGENTINA...THE ADVECTION OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY WILL AID
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWLY RETURNING AS THE
PATTERN WILL FAVOR DE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL JET FROM BOLIVIA
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PATAGONIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.
INITIALLY...EXPECTING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
TUESDAY ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING ACROSS RIO GRANDE DO
SUL-SOUTHERN CORRIENTES. THIS WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF
25-50MM/DAY. CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY.
EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE BUENOS AIRES
PROVINCE/LA PAMPA DURING WEDNESDAY TO PRODUCE  MAXIMA OF
25-50MM/DAY DURING WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ACTIVE
CONVECTION WILL MEANDER NORTHWARD INTO THE RIO DE LA PLATA BASIN
BY THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL PRODUCE MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY. A NEW
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING FRIDAY WHERE MAXIMA IN THE RIO DE
LA PLATA REGION WILL INCREASE TO 30-60MM/DAY. AMOUNTS ARE TO
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS SURFACE FRONT MOVES VERY LITTLE INTO
SOUTHERN URUGUAY.

NORTH OVER THE CONTINENT SEASONALLY QUIET PATTERN WILL DOMINATE
THE DOMAIN WITH ACTIVITY CONSTRAINING TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
BRASIL IN TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE...AND TO THE NORTHERN AMAZON
NORTH OF 02S. EXPECTING LIGHT RAINFALL DEVELOPING ACROSS ESPIRITO
SANTO IN BRASIL ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY NEAR THE TAIL OF A
SURFACE FRONT TO REMAIN GENERALLY OFFSHORE. FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY
WILL MEANDER NORTHWARD TO AFFECT AREAS BETWEEN ESPIRITO SANTO AND
BAHIA ON SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 10-15MM/DAY IN TRADE
WIND CONVECTION.

ROMERO...DMC (CHILE)
FARINA...DMH (PARAGUAY)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 041605
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1204 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 07 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 11 2015

...GUIDANCE AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

WPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED 2.5KM SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY
DERIVED FROM THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SEEMED TO BEST FIT TRENDS/CLUSTERED DETAILS FROM DETERMINITSIC
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THEMSELVES SEEMINGLY OFFER TOO MUCH RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY FOR EXPLICIT INCLUSION.


...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THREATS...

IN THIS PATTERN....THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL MAY WELL BE
CONCENTRATED WITH A LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT/DEVELOP FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC FRI TO OFF NEW END AND INTO ERN CANADA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH ACIVITY ALONG A TRAILING FRONT DUG DOWN
THROUGH THE SERN US AND BACK OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LEAD
LOW OFFERS LESS THAN STELLAR MODEL TO MODEL
CONSISTENCY...ESPECIALLY RECENT GFS RUNS. THIS LEAVES OPEN
POTENTIAL OF A TRACK MORE IN LINE WITH THE WET/UNSETTLED TUCKED IN
ECMWF OR MORE OFFSHORE LIKE OTHER MODELS. THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE
OFFSHORE THE NERN US...BUT NOT AS INLAND AS THE 00 UTC ECMWF
CONSIDERING ITS SUPPORTING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOT MORE
CLOSED.

MEANWHILE...TRANSLATION OF STEADILY PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM TROUGH
ENERGIES WITH SOME AMPLITUDE FOR AUGUST OFFERS SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES...BUT FITS AN OVERALL PATTERN FAVORING SRN CANADIAN
TO N-CENTRAL US...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...AND OH VALLEY/NERN
US/MID-ATLANTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSAGES THAT WILL FOCUS LOCALLY
POTENT LEAD CONVECTION AND POST-FRONTAL COOLING.

UPSTREAM...UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING
FROM OFF WRN CANADA TO JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW/NRN CA SHOULD
MEANWHILE ALLOW AN INLAND PCPN AND COOLING FRONTAL PUSH SUN-NEXT
TUE. DOWNSTREAM...EXPECT MONSOONAL ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AS
MOISTURE FEED UP THROUGH THE SW AND INTERMOUNTAIN W/ROCKY STATES.

SCHICHTEL







$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 041605
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1204 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 07 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 11 2015

...GUIDANCE AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

WPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED 2.5KM SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY
DERIVED FROM THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SEEMED TO BEST FIT TRENDS/CLUSTERED DETAILS FROM DETERMINITSIC
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THEMSELVES SEEMINGLY OFFER TOO MUCH RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY FOR EXPLICIT INCLUSION.


...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THREATS...

IN THIS PATTERN....THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL MAY WELL BE
CONCENTRATED WITH A LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT/DEVELOP FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC FRI TO OFF NEW END AND INTO ERN CANADA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH ACIVITY ALONG A TRAILING FRONT DUG DOWN
THROUGH THE SERN US AND BACK OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LEAD
LOW OFFERS LESS THAN STELLAR MODEL TO MODEL
CONSISTENCY...ESPECIALLY RECENT GFS RUNS. THIS LEAVES OPEN
POTENTIAL OF A TRACK MORE IN LINE WITH THE WET/UNSETTLED TUCKED IN
ECMWF OR MORE OFFSHORE LIKE OTHER MODELS. THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE
OFFSHORE THE NERN US...BUT NOT AS INLAND AS THE 00 UTC ECMWF
CONSIDERING ITS SUPPORTING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOT MORE
CLOSED.

MEANWHILE...TRANSLATION OF STEADILY PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM TROUGH
ENERGIES WITH SOME AMPLITUDE FOR AUGUST OFFERS SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES...BUT FITS AN OVERALL PATTERN FAVORING SRN CANADIAN
TO N-CENTRAL US...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...AND OH VALLEY/NERN
US/MID-ATLANTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSAGES THAT WILL FOCUS LOCALLY
POTENT LEAD CONVECTION AND POST-FRONTAL COOLING.

UPSTREAM...UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING
FROM OFF WRN CANADA TO JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW/NRN CA SHOULD
MEANWHILE ALLOW AN INLAND PCPN AND COOLING FRONTAL PUSH SUN-NEXT
TUE. DOWNSTREAM...EXPECT MONSOONAL ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AS
MOISTURE FEED UP THROUGH THE SW AND INTERMOUNTAIN W/ROCKY STATES.

SCHICHTEL







$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 041605
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1204 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 07 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 11 2015

...GUIDANCE AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

WPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED 2.5KM SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY
DERIVED FROM THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SEEMED TO BEST FIT TRENDS/CLUSTERED DETAILS FROM DETERMINITSIC
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THEMSELVES SEEMINGLY OFFER TOO MUCH RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY FOR EXPLICIT INCLUSION.


...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THREATS...

IN THIS PATTERN....THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL MAY WELL BE
CONCENTRATED WITH A LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT/DEVELOP FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC FRI TO OFF NEW END AND INTO ERN CANADA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH ACIVITY ALONG A TRAILING FRONT DUG DOWN
THROUGH THE SERN US AND BACK OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LEAD
LOW OFFERS LESS THAN STELLAR MODEL TO MODEL
CONSISTENCY...ESPECIALLY RECENT GFS RUNS. THIS LEAVES OPEN
POTENTIAL OF A TRACK MORE IN LINE WITH THE WET/UNSETTLED TUCKED IN
ECMWF OR MORE OFFSHORE LIKE OTHER MODELS. THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE
OFFSHORE THE NERN US...BUT NOT AS INLAND AS THE 00 UTC ECMWF
CONSIDERING ITS SUPPORTING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOT MORE
CLOSED.

MEANWHILE...TRANSLATION OF STEADILY PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM TROUGH
ENERGIES WITH SOME AMPLITUDE FOR AUGUST OFFERS SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES...BUT FITS AN OVERALL PATTERN FAVORING SRN CANADIAN
TO N-CENTRAL US...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...AND OH VALLEY/NERN
US/MID-ATLANTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSAGES THAT WILL FOCUS LOCALLY
POTENT LEAD CONVECTION AND POST-FRONTAL COOLING.

UPSTREAM...UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING
FROM OFF WRN CANADA TO JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW/NRN CA SHOULD
MEANWHILE ALLOW AN INLAND PCPN AND COOLING FRONTAL PUSH SUN-NEXT
TUE. DOWNSTREAM...EXPECT MONSOONAL ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AS
MOISTURE FEED UP THROUGH THE SW AND INTERMOUNTAIN W/ROCKY STATES.

SCHICHTEL







$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 041605
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1204 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 07 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 11 2015

...GUIDANCE AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

WPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED 2.5KM SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY
DERIVED FROM THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SEEMED TO BEST FIT TRENDS/CLUSTERED DETAILS FROM DETERMINITSIC
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THEMSELVES SEEMINGLY OFFER TOO MUCH RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY FOR EXPLICIT INCLUSION.


...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THREATS...

IN THIS PATTERN....THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL MAY WELL BE
CONCENTRATED WITH A LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT/DEVELOP FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC FRI TO OFF NEW END AND INTO ERN CANADA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH ACIVITY ALONG A TRAILING FRONT DUG DOWN
THROUGH THE SERN US AND BACK OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LEAD
LOW OFFERS LESS THAN STELLAR MODEL TO MODEL
CONSISTENCY...ESPECIALLY RECENT GFS RUNS. THIS LEAVES OPEN
POTENTIAL OF A TRACK MORE IN LINE WITH THE WET/UNSETTLED TUCKED IN
ECMWF OR MORE OFFSHORE LIKE OTHER MODELS. THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE
OFFSHORE THE NERN US...BUT NOT AS INLAND AS THE 00 UTC ECMWF
CONSIDERING ITS SUPPORTING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOT MORE
CLOSED.

MEANWHILE...TRANSLATION OF STEADILY PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM TROUGH
ENERGIES WITH SOME AMPLITUDE FOR AUGUST OFFERS SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES...BUT FITS AN OVERALL PATTERN FAVORING SRN CANADIAN
TO N-CENTRAL US...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...AND OH VALLEY/NERN
US/MID-ATLANTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSAGES THAT WILL FOCUS LOCALLY
POTENT LEAD CONVECTION AND POST-FRONTAL COOLING.

UPSTREAM...UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING
FROM OFF WRN CANADA TO JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW/NRN CA SHOULD
MEANWHILE ALLOW AN INLAND PCPN AND COOLING FRONTAL PUSH SUN-NEXT
TUE. DOWNSTREAM...EXPECT MONSOONAL ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AS
MOISTURE FEED UP THROUGH THE SW AND INTERMOUNTAIN W/ROCKY STATES.

SCHICHTEL







$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 041601
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 07 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 11 2015

...GUIDANCE AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

WPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED 2.5KM SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY
DERIVED FROM THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SEEMED TO BEST FIT TRENDS/CLUSTERED DETAILS FROM DETERMINITSIC
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THEMSELVES SEEMINGLY OFFER TOO MUCH RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY FOR EXPLICIT INCLUSION.


...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THREATS...

IN THIS PATTERN....THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL MAY WELL BE
CONCENTRATED WITH A LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT/DEVELOP FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC FRI TO OFF NEW END AND INTO ERN CANADA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH ACIVITY ALONG A TRAILING FRONT DUG DOWN
THROUGH THE SERN US AND BACK OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LEAD
LOW  SYSTEM OFFERS LESS THAN STELLAR MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY
LEAVING OPEN POTENTIAL OF A TRACK MORE IN LINE WITH THE TUCKED IN
ECMWF OR MORE OFFSHORE LIKE OTHER MODELS.

MEANWHILE...TRANSLATION OF STEADILY PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM TROUGH
ENERGIES WITH SOME AMPLITUDE FOR AUGUST OFFERS SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES...BUT FITS AN OVERALL PATTERN FAVORING SRN CANADIAN
TO N-CENTRAL US...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...AND OH VALLEY/NERN
US/MID-ATLANTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSAGES THAT WILL FOCUS LOCALLY
POTENT LEAD CONVECTION AND POST-FRONTAL COOLING.

UPSTREAM...UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING
FROM OFF WRN CANADA TO JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW/NRN CA SHOULD
MEANWHILE ALLOW AN INLAND PCPN AND COOLING FRONTAL PUSH SUN-NEXT
TUE. DOWNSTREAM...EXPECT MONSOONAL ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AS
MOISTURE FEED UP THROUGH THE SW AND INTERMOUNTAIN W/ROCKY STATES.

SCHICHTEL







$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 041601
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 07 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 11 2015

...GUIDANCE AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

WPC MEDIUM RANGE SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURES AND 500 MB PROGS ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED 2.5KM SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY
DERIVED FROM THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SEEMED TO BEST FIT TRENDS/CLUSTERED DETAILS FROM DETERMINITSIC
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT THEMSELVES SEEMINGLY OFFER TOO MUCH RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY FOR EXPLICIT INCLUSION.


...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THREATS...

IN THIS PATTERN....THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL MAY WELL BE
CONCENTRATED WITH A LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT/DEVELOP FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC FRI TO OFF NEW END AND INTO ERN CANADA THIS
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH ACIVITY ALONG A TRAILING FRONT DUG DOWN
THROUGH THE SERN US AND BACK OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LEAD
LOW  SYSTEM OFFERS LESS THAN STELLAR MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY
LEAVING OPEN POTENTIAL OF A TRACK MORE IN LINE WITH THE TUCKED IN
ECMWF OR MORE OFFSHORE LIKE OTHER MODELS.

MEANWHILE...TRANSLATION OF STEADILY PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM TROUGH
ENERGIES WITH SOME AMPLITUDE FOR AUGUST OFFERS SOME TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES...BUT FITS AN OVERALL PATTERN FAVORING SRN CANADIAN
TO N-CENTRAL US...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...AND OH VALLEY/NERN
US/MID-ATLANTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSAGES THAT WILL FOCUS LOCALLY
POTENT LEAD CONVECTION AND POST-FRONTAL COOLING.

UPSTREAM...UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING
FROM OFF WRN CANADA TO JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW/NRN CA SHOULD
MEANWHILE ALLOW AN INLAND PCPN AND COOLING FRONTAL PUSH SUN-NEXT
TUE. DOWNSTREAM...EXPECT MONSOONAL ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE AS
MOISTURE FEED UP THROUGH THE SW AND INTERMOUNTAIN W/ROCKY STATES.

SCHICHTEL







$$






000
FXSA20 KWBC 041352
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
951 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM AUG 04 AT 0000 UTC): A NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
LOW CENTERS SOUTH OF THE GUIANAS NEAR 00N 57W...ANCHORING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER EQUATORIAL SOUTH AMERICA. THIS IS ENHANCING
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS RORAIMA-NORTHERN AMAZONAS IN BRASIL TO
SOUTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHERN JUNGLE OF ECUADOR. OTHERWISE...FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL TO THE NORTH.

THE 250 HPA JET ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR FORMING AT 48S
78W ALONG 39S 47W...A 160KT MAXIMA AT 43S 25W. THE NORTHERN POLAR
JET EXTENDS ALONG A 168KT MAXIMA AT 31S 110W...32S 100W...35S
90W...EXITING AT 35S 86W. IT REFORMS AT 35S 78W ALONG 38S 65W...A
126KT MAXIMA AT 35S 50W...36S 38W...39S 25W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET
FORMS AT 25S 76W ALONG 31S 63W...30S 43W...31S 30W...EXITING AT
28S 21W.

AT 500 HPA...AMPLIFYING TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW EXTENDS
FROM A CLOSED LOW AT 74S 92W...ALONG 60S 105W...TO 50S 114W. NORTH
OF THIS AXIS...TIGHT BELT OF MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES DOMINATES
FLOW BETWEEN 20S-35S. THIS IS ADVECTING DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TO THE SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA. A
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER ARGENTINA SEPARATES THIS FROM A LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE SURFACE SHOWS A 994 HPA LOW AT 62S 44W EXTENDING A FRONT ALONG
59S 45W...55S 57W...A 1006 HPA LOW AT 56S 65W...52S 68W...A 1006
HPA LOW AT 54S 79W...52S 84W. RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING IN EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN CHILE. A 978 HPA OCCLUDED LOW AT 41S 95W EXTENDS A
FRONT ALONG 39S 98W...44S 95W INTO A 986 HPA TRIPLE LOW AT 42S
90W...39S 90W...36S 93W...34S 96W...31S 98W. A 1021 HPA HIGH
CENTERS AT 38S 61W. TO THE EAST A 1006 HPA LOW AT 37S 35W EXTENDS
A COLD FRONT ALONG 35S 34W...30S 39W...30S 46W...30S 55W...28S
64W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

ROMERO...DMC (CHILE)
FARINA...DMH (PARAGUAY)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXSA20 KWBC 041352
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
951 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM AUG 04 AT 0000 UTC): A NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
LOW CENTERS SOUTH OF THE GUIANAS NEAR 00N 57W...ANCHORING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER EQUATORIAL SOUTH AMERICA. THIS IS ENHANCING
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS RORAIMA-NORTHERN AMAZONAS IN BRASIL TO
SOUTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHERN JUNGLE OF ECUADOR. OTHERWISE...FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL TO THE NORTH.

THE 250 HPA JET ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR FORMING AT 48S
78W ALONG 39S 47W...A 160KT MAXIMA AT 43S 25W. THE NORTHERN POLAR
JET EXTENDS ALONG A 168KT MAXIMA AT 31S 110W...32S 100W...35S
90W...EXITING AT 35S 86W. IT REFORMS AT 35S 78W ALONG 38S 65W...A
126KT MAXIMA AT 35S 50W...36S 38W...39S 25W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET
FORMS AT 25S 76W ALONG 31S 63W...30S 43W...31S 30W...EXITING AT
28S 21W.

AT 500 HPA...AMPLIFYING TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW EXTENDS
FROM A CLOSED LOW AT 74S 92W...ALONG 60S 105W...TO 50S 114W. NORTH
OF THIS AXIS...TIGHT BELT OF MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES DOMINATES
FLOW BETWEEN 20S-35S. THIS IS ADVECTING DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TO THE SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA. A
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER ARGENTINA SEPARATES THIS FROM A LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

THE SURFACE SHOWS A 994 HPA LOW AT 62S 44W EXTENDING A FRONT ALONG
59S 45W...55S 57W...A 1006 HPA LOW AT 56S 65W...52S 68W...A 1006
HPA LOW AT 54S 79W...52S 84W. RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING IN EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN CHILE. A 978 HPA OCCLUDED LOW AT 41S 95W EXTENDS A
FRONT ALONG 39S 98W...44S 95W INTO A 986 HPA TRIPLE LOW AT 42S
90W...39S 90W...36S 93W...34S 96W...31S 98W. A 1021 HPA HIGH
CENTERS AT 38S 61W. TO THE EAST A 1006 HPA LOW AT 37S 35W EXTENDS
A COLD FRONT ALONG 35S 34W...30S 39W...30S 46W...30S 55W...28S
64W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

ROMERO...DMC (CHILE)
FARINA...DMH (PARAGUAY)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 041042
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
642 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM AUG 04/06
UTC: MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO DOMINATE FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...FAVORING STRONG CAP INVERSION AND A PWAT MINIMA
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AT LOW LEVELS BRISK EASTERLY TRADES
PREVAIL...FAVORING GENERATION OF STREAMERS ACROSS THE
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLES. THIS...IN-TURN...SUSTAINS LIGHT BRIEF
SHOWERS AS THEY STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS TO HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY...LONGER THAN
WHAT THE MODELS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. LATER IN THE
WEEK...RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW IS TO PUT A DENT ON THE
PATTERN...WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO ESTABLISH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BY MIDDAY ON FRIDAY. WEAKNESS IN HEIGHT FIELD IS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT STARTS TO WEAKEN
IT WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY CLOUD CLUSTERS TO ADVECT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE WATER
LIKELY ON SATURDAY-SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT LOW LEVELS...BRISK EASTERLY TRADES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDMORNING ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER WINDS
WILL DECREASE TO 10-15KT. THE LIGHTER WINDS ARE LIKELY TO FAVOR
ACTIVATION OF THE LAND/SEA BREEZE CYCLE ACROSS THE LARGER
ISLANDS...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE. IF THE PATTERN HOLDS AS THE MODELS
NOW SUGGEST...SATURDAY-SUNDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
WITH MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 040809
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
408 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VALID 12Z TUE AUG 4 2015 - 12Z THU AUG 6 2015

***SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO NEW
ENGLAND***

***LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.***

***HEAT WAVE ENDING FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST***

A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY.  SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.  COOLER AIR FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A
RETURN TO MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FLORIDA
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S., THINGS WILL BE LESS
ACTIVE GOING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
WEAKENS.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE
GULF STREAM WATERS.  HOWEVER, DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION REMAINS
LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE GULF COAST.

SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  A COLD FRONT DROPPING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION, BRINGING AN END TO
THE STRETCH OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXTENDING
INTO MISSOURI.

HAMRICK

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 040809
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
408 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VALID 12Z TUE AUG 4 2015 - 12Z THU AUG 6 2015

***SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO NEW
ENGLAND***

***LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.***

***HEAT WAVE ENDING FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST***

A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY.  SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.  COOLER AIR FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A
RETURN TO MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FLORIDA
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S., THINGS WILL BE LESS
ACTIVE GOING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
WEAKENS.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE
GULF STREAM WATERS.  HOWEVER, DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION REMAINS
LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE GULF COAST.

SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  A COLD FRONT DROPPING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION, BRINGING AN END TO
THE STRETCH OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXTENDING
INTO MISSOURI.

HAMRICK

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 040805
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
404 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VALID 12Z TUE AUG 4 2015 - 12Z THU AUG 6 2015

***SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO NEW
ENGLAND***

***LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.***

***HEAT WAVE ENDING FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST***

A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  COOLER AIR
FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FLORIDA
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S., THINGS WILL BE LESS
ACTIVE GOING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
WEAKENS.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE
GULF STREAM WATERS.  HOWEVER, DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION REMAINS
LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE GULF COAST.

SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  A COLD FRONT DROPPING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION, BRINGING AN END TO
THE STRETCH OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EXTENDING
INTO MISSOURI.

HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 040515
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
114 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 07 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 11 2015

CONSIDERING THE RATHER COMPLEX AND UNUSUAL FLOW PATTERN EMERGING
ACROSS THE LOWER 48---THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINED
SURPRISINGLY STABLE---WITH RESPECT TO `TRACK-ABLE` SYNOPTIC-SCALE
WAVES AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH CONFIGURATION ALONG BOTH COASTS OF
CANADA. THOUGHT THE 3/12Z ECENS...NAEFS AND PREVIOUS WPC
FORECAST---PROVIDED THE BEST REPRESENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
AND SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN FROM COAST TO COAST.

FOR SOME REASON---THE 3/12Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/GFS WERE NOT MUCH
HELP AT ALL IN THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BEYOND DAY 3. THE
ECMWF/GFS PART WAYS---WHEN THE GFS TRACKS A SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY---DIRECTLY INTO THE HEART
OF THE MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. ON THE OTHER HAND---THE ECMWF
SEEMED JUST AS UNLIKELY A SURFACE SOLUTION BY EARLY 4---PHASING
MID-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH AN INTENSE
SURFACE WAVE EMERGING LEE SIDE OF THE VIRGINIA PORTION OF THE
APPALACHIANS---ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THAT
REALLY LOOKS TOO MUCH LIKE A MID-WINTER SCENARIO...AND COULD NOT
BE USED EITHER.

IF THERE WAS A 3/12Z DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION THAT HELD TO
CONTINUITY ACROSS NORTH AMERICA---AND FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS---THOUGHT IT WAS THE CANADIAN THROUGH DAY 6. THIS SOLUTION
MAINTAINS GOOD SEPARATION BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES BENEATH THE
UPPER-LEVEL IN SOUTHEAST CANADA ON DAYS 3-4 ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND GREAT LAKES.

VOJTESAK







$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 040515
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
114 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 07 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 11 2015

CONSIDERING THE RATHER COMPLEX AND UNUSUAL FLOW PATTERN EMERGING
ACROSS THE LOWER 48---THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINED
SURPRISINGLY STABLE---WITH RESPECT TO `TRACK-ABLE` SYNOPTIC-SCALE
WAVES AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH CONFIGURATION ALONG BOTH COASTS OF
CANADA. THOUGHT THE 3/12Z ECENS...NAEFS AND PREVIOUS WPC
FORECAST---PROVIDED THE BEST REPRESENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
AND SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN FROM COAST TO COAST.

FOR SOME REASON---THE 3/12Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/GFS WERE NOT MUCH
HELP AT ALL IN THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BEYOND DAY 3. THE
ECMWF/GFS PART WAYS---WHEN THE GFS TRACKS A SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY---DIRECTLY INTO THE HEART
OF THE MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. ON THE OTHER HAND---THE ECMWF
SEEMED JUST AS UNLIKELY A SURFACE SOLUTION BY EARLY 4---PHASING
MID-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH AN INTENSE
SURFACE WAVE EMERGING LEE SIDE OF THE VIRGINIA PORTION OF THE
APPALACHIANS---ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THAT
REALLY LOOKS TOO MUCH LIKE A MID-WINTER SCENARIO...AND COULD NOT
BE USED EITHER.

IF THERE WAS A 3/12Z DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION THAT HELD TO
CONTINUITY ACROSS NORTH AMERICA---AND FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS---THOUGHT IT WAS THE CANADIAN THROUGH DAY 6. THIS SOLUTION
MAINTAINS GOOD SEPARATION BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES BENEATH THE
UPPER-LEVEL IN SOUTHEAST CANADA ON DAYS 3-4 ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND GREAT LAKES.

VOJTESAK







$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 040515
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
114 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 07 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 11 2015

CONSIDERING THE RATHER COMPLEX AND UNUSUAL FLOW PATTERN EMERGING
ACROSS THE LOWER 48---THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINED
SURPRISINGLY STABLE---WITH RESPECT TO `TRACK-ABLE` SYNOPTIC-SCALE
WAVES AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH CONFIGURATION ALONG BOTH COASTS OF
CANADA. THOUGHT THE 3/12Z ECENS...NAEFS AND PREVIOUS WPC
FORECAST---PROVIDED THE BEST REPRESENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
AND SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN FROM COAST TO COAST.

FOR SOME REASON---THE 3/12Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/GFS WERE NOT MUCH
HELP AT ALL IN THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BEYOND DAY 3. THE
ECMWF/GFS PART WAYS---WHEN THE GFS TRACKS A SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY---DIRECTLY INTO THE HEART
OF THE MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. ON THE OTHER HAND---THE ECMWF
SEEMED JUST AS UNLIKELY A SURFACE SOLUTION BY EARLY 4---PHASING
MID-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH AN INTENSE
SURFACE WAVE EMERGING LEE SIDE OF THE VIRGINIA PORTION OF THE
APPALACHIANS---ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THAT
REALLY LOOKS TOO MUCH LIKE A MID-WINTER SCENARIO...AND COULD NOT
BE USED EITHER.

IF THERE WAS A 3/12Z DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION THAT HELD TO
CONTINUITY ACROSS NORTH AMERICA---AND FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS---THOUGHT IT WAS THE CANADIAN THROUGH DAY 6. THIS SOLUTION
MAINTAINS GOOD SEPARATION BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES BENEATH THE
UPPER-LEVEL IN SOUTHEAST CANADA ON DAYS 3-4 ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND GREAT LAKES.

VOJTESAK







$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 040515
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
114 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 07 2015 - 12Z TUE AUG 11 2015

CONSIDERING THE RATHER COMPLEX AND UNUSUAL FLOW PATTERN EMERGING
ACROSS THE LOWER 48---THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST REMAINED
SURPRISINGLY STABLE---WITH RESPECT TO `TRACK-ABLE` SYNOPTIC-SCALE
WAVES AND THE LONG WAVE TROUGH CONFIGURATION ALONG BOTH COASTS OF
CANADA. THOUGHT THE 3/12Z ECENS...NAEFS AND PREVIOUS WPC
FORECAST---PROVIDED THE BEST REPRESENTATION OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
AND SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN FROM COAST TO COAST.

FOR SOME REASON---THE 3/12Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/GFS WERE NOT MUCH
HELP AT ALL IN THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BEYOND DAY 3. THE
ECMWF/GFS PART WAYS---WHEN THE GFS TRACKS A SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY---DIRECTLY INTO THE HEART
OF THE MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. ON THE OTHER HAND---THE ECMWF
SEEMED JUST AS UNLIKELY A SURFACE SOLUTION BY EARLY 4---PHASING
MID-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH AN INTENSE
SURFACE WAVE EMERGING LEE SIDE OF THE VIRGINIA PORTION OF THE
APPALACHIANS---ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THAT
REALLY LOOKS TOO MUCH LIKE A MID-WINTER SCENARIO...AND COULD NOT
BE USED EITHER.

IF THERE WAS A 3/12Z DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION THAT HELD TO
CONTINUITY ACROSS NORTH AMERICA---AND FOLLOWED THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS---THOUGHT IT WAS THE CANADIAN THROUGH DAY 6. THIS SOLUTION
MAINTAINS GOOD SEPARATION BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES BENEATH THE
UPPER-LEVEL IN SOUTHEAST CANADA ON DAYS 3-4 ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND GREAT LAKES.

VOJTESAK







$$






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities