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000
FXUS01 KWBC 272044
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

VALID 00Z SAT FEB 28 2015 - 00Z MON MAR 02 2015

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE COUNTRY...

...MULTIPLE FEET OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND
MOGOLLON RIM...

...A WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT AN AREA FROM THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS UP TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...


THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN
EXPANSIVE TROUGH WHILE A PAIR OF RIDGES ANCHOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND CARIBBEAN, RESPECTIVELY. THE LACK OF A RIDGE OVER THE U.S.
SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
STATES SHOWS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE DAILY TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES
TRANSLATING SOUTH AND EAST IN TIME. THIS GENERALLY EQUATES TO
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S WHILE LOWS PLUMMET WELL INTO THE TEENS.
ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL ALLOW
A COLD FRONT TO SWOOP THROUGH THE PLAINS HELPING REINFORCE THE
CHILLY READINGS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ABOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. INITIALLY THE MORE INLAND TRACK THIS
SYSTEM TAKES WILL NOT ABLE TO TAP INTO MUCH PACIFIC MOISTURE WHICH
SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S. AS THE TROUGH CURVES OUT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA, IT SHOULD FINALLY BE ABLE TO DRAW LARGER AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AUGMENT RAIN/SNOW TOTALS. WHILE
PROVIDING SOME DROUGHT RELIEF TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A
STEADY PERIOD OF RAIN, FORECAST AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER IMPRESSIVE
FARTHER INLAND. DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS ALONE, THE MOGOLLON RIM
CAN EXPECT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. THE WPC WINTER WEATHER
DESK SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 FEET OF THIS WILL BE SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE, DURING THE SAME PERIOD, THE SAN JUANS IN
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO MAY SEE IN UPWARDS OF 5 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION WHICH EQUATES TO SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW. THE LONG
DURATION OF THE EVENT COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT MOIST, UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD AID IN PRODUCING SUCH ROBUST TOTALS.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE VAST COVERAGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL CREATE A MESSY SITUATION WHERE ICE, SLEET, AND
SNOW ARE ALL POSSIBLE. IMPULSES MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WEST WILL HELP DRIVE PRECIPITATION FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS EASTWARD. GULF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH MUCH OF THIS MILDER AIR OVERRIDING THE SUBFREEZING SURFACE
LAYER. THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS MEASURABLE ICE ANYWHERE FROM
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH ANOTHER
SEPARATE AXIS ALONG THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE,
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD BE ALL SNOW
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY CONGREGATING OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI UP THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA WHERE 6 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS THREAT, PLEASE READ THE
QPFHSD ON THE WPC PAGE UNDER THE HEADER DISCUSSIONS.



RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 272044
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

VALID 00Z SAT FEB 28 2015 - 00Z MON MAR 02 2015

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE COUNTRY...

...MULTIPLE FEET OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND
MOGOLLON RIM...

...A WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT AN AREA FROM THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS UP TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...


THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN
EXPANSIVE TROUGH WHILE A PAIR OF RIDGES ANCHOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND CARIBBEAN, RESPECTIVELY. THE LACK OF A RIDGE OVER THE U.S.
SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
STATES SHOWS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE DAILY TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES
TRANSLATING SOUTH AND EAST IN TIME. THIS GENERALLY EQUATES TO
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S WHILE LOWS PLUMMET WELL INTO THE TEENS.
ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL ALLOW
A COLD FRONT TO SWOOP THROUGH THE PLAINS HELPING REINFORCE THE
CHILLY READINGS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ABOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. INITIALLY THE MORE INLAND TRACK THIS
SYSTEM TAKES WILL NOT ABLE TO TAP INTO MUCH PACIFIC MOISTURE WHICH
SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S. AS THE TROUGH CURVES OUT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA, IT SHOULD FINALLY BE ABLE TO DRAW LARGER AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AUGMENT RAIN/SNOW TOTALS. WHILE
PROVIDING SOME DROUGHT RELIEF TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A
STEADY PERIOD OF RAIN, FORECAST AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER IMPRESSIVE
FARTHER INLAND. DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS ALONE, THE MOGOLLON RIM
CAN EXPECT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. THE WPC WINTER WEATHER
DESK SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 FEET OF THIS WILL BE SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE, DURING THE SAME PERIOD, THE SAN JUANS IN
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO MAY SEE IN UPWARDS OF 5 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION WHICH EQUATES TO SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW. THE LONG
DURATION OF THE EVENT COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT MOIST, UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD AID IN PRODUCING SUCH ROBUST TOTALS.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE VAST COVERAGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL CREATE A MESSY SITUATION WHERE ICE, SLEET, AND
SNOW ARE ALL POSSIBLE. IMPULSES MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WEST WILL HELP DRIVE PRECIPITATION FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS EASTWARD. GULF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH MUCH OF THIS MILDER AIR OVERRIDING THE SUBFREEZING SURFACE
LAYER. THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS MEASURABLE ICE ANYWHERE FROM
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH ANOTHER
SEPARATE AXIS ALONG THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE,
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD BE ALL SNOW
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY CONGREGATING OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI UP THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA WHERE 6 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS THREAT, PLEASE READ THE
QPFHSD ON THE WPC PAGE UNDER THE HEADER DISCUSSIONS.



RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 272044
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

VALID 00Z SAT FEB 28 2015 - 00Z MON MAR 02 2015

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE COUNTRY...

...MULTIPLE FEET OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND
MOGOLLON RIM...

...A WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT AN AREA FROM THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS UP TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...


THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN
EXPANSIVE TROUGH WHILE A PAIR OF RIDGES ANCHOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND CARIBBEAN, RESPECTIVELY. THE LACK OF A RIDGE OVER THE U.S.
SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
STATES SHOWS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE DAILY TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES
TRANSLATING SOUTH AND EAST IN TIME. THIS GENERALLY EQUATES TO
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S WHILE LOWS PLUMMET WELL INTO THE TEENS.
ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL ALLOW
A COLD FRONT TO SWOOP THROUGH THE PLAINS HELPING REINFORCE THE
CHILLY READINGS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ABOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. INITIALLY THE MORE INLAND TRACK THIS
SYSTEM TAKES WILL NOT ABLE TO TAP INTO MUCH PACIFIC MOISTURE WHICH
SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S. AS THE TROUGH CURVES OUT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA, IT SHOULD FINALLY BE ABLE TO DRAW LARGER AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AUGMENT RAIN/SNOW TOTALS. WHILE
PROVIDING SOME DROUGHT RELIEF TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A
STEADY PERIOD OF RAIN, FORECAST AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER IMPRESSIVE
FARTHER INLAND. DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS ALONE, THE MOGOLLON RIM
CAN EXPECT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. THE WPC WINTER WEATHER
DESK SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 FEET OF THIS WILL BE SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE, DURING THE SAME PERIOD, THE SAN JUANS IN
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO MAY SEE IN UPWARDS OF 5 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION WHICH EQUATES TO SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW. THE LONG
DURATION OF THE EVENT COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT MOIST, UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD AID IN PRODUCING SUCH ROBUST TOTALS.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE VAST COVERAGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL CREATE A MESSY SITUATION WHERE ICE, SLEET, AND
SNOW ARE ALL POSSIBLE. IMPULSES MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WEST WILL HELP DRIVE PRECIPITATION FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS EASTWARD. GULF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH MUCH OF THIS MILDER AIR OVERRIDING THE SUBFREEZING SURFACE
LAYER. THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS MEASURABLE ICE ANYWHERE FROM
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH ANOTHER
SEPARATE AXIS ALONG THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE,
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD BE ALL SNOW
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY CONGREGATING OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI UP THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA WHERE 6 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS THREAT, PLEASE READ THE
QPFHSD ON THE WPC PAGE UNDER THE HEADER DISCUSSIONS.



RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 272044
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

VALID 00Z SAT FEB 28 2015 - 00Z MON MAR 02 2015

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE COUNTRY...

...MULTIPLE FEET OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAN JUANS AND
MOGOLLON RIM...

...A WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT AN AREA FROM THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS UP TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...


THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN
EXPANSIVE TROUGH WHILE A PAIR OF RIDGES ANCHOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND CARIBBEAN, RESPECTIVELY. THE LACK OF A RIDGE OVER THE U.S.
SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE REGION. AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
STATES SHOWS A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE DAILY TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES
TRANSLATING SOUTH AND EAST IN TIME. THIS GENERALLY EQUATES TO
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S WHILE LOWS PLUMMET WELL INTO THE TEENS.
ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL ALLOW
A COLD FRONT TO SWOOP THROUGH THE PLAINS HELPING REINFORCE THE
CHILLY READINGS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL BRING ABOUT AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. INITIALLY THE MORE INLAND TRACK THIS
SYSTEM TAKES WILL NOT ABLE TO TAP INTO MUCH PACIFIC MOISTURE WHICH
SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S. AS THE TROUGH CURVES OUT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA, IT SHOULD FINALLY BE ABLE TO DRAW LARGER AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AUGMENT RAIN/SNOW TOTALS. WHILE
PROVIDING SOME DROUGHT RELIEF TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A
STEADY PERIOD OF RAIN, FORECAST AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER IMPRESSIVE
FARTHER INLAND. DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS ALONE, THE MOGOLLON RIM
CAN EXPECT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. THE WPC WINTER WEATHER
DESK SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 FEET OF THIS WILL BE SNOW OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE, DURING THE SAME PERIOD, THE SAN JUANS IN
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO MAY SEE IN UPWARDS OF 5 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION WHICH EQUATES TO SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW. THE LONG
DURATION OF THE EVENT COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT MOIST, UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD AID IN PRODUCING SUCH ROBUST TOTALS.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE VAST COVERAGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL CREATE A MESSY SITUATION WHERE ICE, SLEET, AND
SNOW ARE ALL POSSIBLE. IMPULSES MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WEST WILL HELP DRIVE PRECIPITATION FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS EASTWARD. GULF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH MUCH OF THIS MILDER AIR OVERRIDING THE SUBFREEZING SURFACE
LAYER. THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS MEASURABLE ICE ANYWHERE FROM
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH ANOTHER
SEPARATE AXIS ALONG THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE,
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD BE ALL SNOW
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY CONGREGATING OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI UP THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS/INDIANA WHERE 6 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS THREAT, PLEASE READ THE
QPFHSD ON THE WPC PAGE UNDER THE HEADER DISCUSSIONS.



RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS06 KWBC 272013
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI FEBRUARY 27 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 - 09 2015

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FAIRLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE
500-HPA PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
REST OF CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EXPECTED TROUGH EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST. THERE ARE ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEST COAST, RELATED TO THE
FORECAST RIDGE. NEAR- AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA
INCLUDING THE ALEUTIANS AND THE PANHANDLE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST,
TO SOUTHERN TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FORECAST TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS.  NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE
MUCH OF THE CONUS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
THIS AREA IS UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND AWAY FROM THE MEAN STORM
TRACK.  THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLES RELATED TO A NORTHWARD DISPLACED STORM TRACK.


TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%
OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: NO PREFERENCE

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY THE
INCONSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS BETWEEN THE NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 13 2015

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE WEEK-2
PERIOD ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. A SHORT WAVE WITH A TROUGH IS
PREDICTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. OVER THE ALASKA SECTOR, A CONSENSUS OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS FORECAST A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE MOST PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE INTERIOR BASIN OF
ALASKA, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN CONUS NEAR THE FORECAST
TROUGH. WITH A TROUGH POSITION FORECAST NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR ALASKA INCLUDING THE
PANHANDLE AND THE ALEUTIANS RELATED TO A NORTHWARD DISPLACED STORM TRACK.
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS BEHIND OF THE MEAN TROUGH. ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE WEST COAST, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE SHORT
WAVE MOVING NEAR THE COAST.


THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL TOOLS, OFFSET BY THE FASTER EASTWARD SHIFT
OF THE PATTERNS IN GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN THAN THAT OF 0Z ECMWF.

FORECASTER: QIN GINGER ZHANG

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890210 - 20020302 - 20030208 - 19820207 - 19630308


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890209 - 20020302 - 19890214 - 20060215 - 19820206


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 - 09 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      N    B
W MONTANA   N    B     E MONTANA   N    B     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        N    B     ARIZONA     N    B     COLORADO    B    B
NEW MEXICO  B    N     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    N    B
NEBRASKA    N    B     KANSAS      B    B     OKLAHOMA    B    B
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     B    N
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   B    B
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    B
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    B    N
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    N     NEW YORK    B    N
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    B    N
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 13 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    B
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    N    B
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     N    N
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        N    B     MISSOURI    N    B
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    B
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    N     NEW YORK    B    B
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    B     MAINE       B    B
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    B
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  B    B
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    B    B
N CAROLINA  B    B     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$





000
FXUS06 KWBC 272013
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI FEBRUARY 27 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 - 09 2015

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FAIRLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE
500-HPA PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
REST OF CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EXPECTED TROUGH EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST. THERE ARE ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEST COAST, RELATED TO THE
FORECAST RIDGE. NEAR- AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA
INCLUDING THE ALEUTIANS AND THE PANHANDLE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST,
TO SOUTHERN TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FORECAST TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS.  NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE
MUCH OF THE CONUS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
THIS AREA IS UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND AWAY FROM THE MEAN STORM
TRACK.  THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLES RELATED TO A NORTHWARD DISPLACED STORM TRACK.


TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%
OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: NO PREFERENCE

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY THE
INCONSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS BETWEEN THE NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 13 2015

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE WEEK-2
PERIOD ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. A SHORT WAVE WITH A TROUGH IS
PREDICTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. OVER THE ALASKA SECTOR, A CONSENSUS OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS FORECAST A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE MOST PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE INTERIOR BASIN OF
ALASKA, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN CONUS NEAR THE FORECAST
TROUGH. WITH A TROUGH POSITION FORECAST NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR ALASKA INCLUDING THE
PANHANDLE AND THE ALEUTIANS RELATED TO A NORTHWARD DISPLACED STORM TRACK.
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS BEHIND OF THE MEAN TROUGH. ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE WEST COAST, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE SHORT
WAVE MOVING NEAR THE COAST.


THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL TOOLS, OFFSET BY THE FASTER EASTWARD SHIFT
OF THE PATTERNS IN GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN THAN THAT OF 0Z ECMWF.

FORECASTER: QIN GINGER ZHANG

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890210 - 20020302 - 20030208 - 19820207 - 19630308


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890209 - 20020302 - 19890214 - 20060215 - 19820206


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 - 09 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      N    B
W MONTANA   N    B     E MONTANA   N    B     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        N    B     ARIZONA     N    B     COLORADO    B    B
NEW MEXICO  B    N     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    N    B
NEBRASKA    N    B     KANSAS      B    B     OKLAHOMA    B    B
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     B    N
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   B    B
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    B
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    B    N
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    N     NEW YORK    B    N
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    B    N
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 13 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    B
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    N    B
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     N    N
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        N    B     MISSOURI    N    B
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    B
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    N     NEW YORK    B    B
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    B     MAINE       B    B
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    B
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  B    B
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    B    B
N CAROLINA  B    B     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$






000
FXUS06 KWBC 272013
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI FEBRUARY 27 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 - 09 2015

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FAIRLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE
500-HPA PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
REST OF CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EXPECTED TROUGH EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST. THERE ARE ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEST COAST, RELATED TO THE
FORECAST RIDGE. NEAR- AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA
INCLUDING THE ALEUTIANS AND THE PANHANDLE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST,
TO SOUTHERN TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FORECAST TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS.  NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE
MUCH OF THE CONUS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
THIS AREA IS UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND AWAY FROM THE MEAN STORM
TRACK.  THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLES RELATED TO A NORTHWARD DISPLACED STORM TRACK.


TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%
OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: NO PREFERENCE

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY THE
INCONSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS BETWEEN THE NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 13 2015

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE WEEK-2
PERIOD ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. A SHORT WAVE WITH A TROUGH IS
PREDICTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. OVER THE ALASKA SECTOR, A CONSENSUS OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS FORECAST A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE MOST PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE INTERIOR BASIN OF
ALASKA, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN CONUS NEAR THE FORECAST
TROUGH. WITH A TROUGH POSITION FORECAST NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR ALASKA INCLUDING THE
PANHANDLE AND THE ALEUTIANS RELATED TO A NORTHWARD DISPLACED STORM TRACK.
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS BEHIND OF THE MEAN TROUGH. ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE WEST COAST, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE SHORT
WAVE MOVING NEAR THE COAST.


THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL TOOLS, OFFSET BY THE FASTER EASTWARD SHIFT
OF THE PATTERNS IN GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN THAN THAT OF 0Z ECMWF.

FORECASTER: QIN GINGER ZHANG

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890210 - 20020302 - 20030208 - 19820207 - 19630308


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890209 - 20020302 - 19890214 - 20060215 - 19820206


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 - 09 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      N    B
W MONTANA   N    B     E MONTANA   N    B     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        N    B     ARIZONA     N    B     COLORADO    B    B
NEW MEXICO  B    N     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    N    B
NEBRASKA    N    B     KANSAS      B    B     OKLAHOMA    B    B
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     B    N
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   B    B
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    B
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    B    N
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    N     NEW YORK    B    N
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    B    N
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 13 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    B
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    N    B
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     N    N
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        N    B     MISSOURI    N    B
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    B
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    N     NEW YORK    B    B
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    B     MAINE       B    B
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    B
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  B    B
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    B    B
N CAROLINA  B    B     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$





000
FXUS06 KWBC 272013
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI FEBRUARY 27 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 - 09 2015

TODAY`S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FAIRLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE
500-HPA PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ALL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
REST OF CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EXPECTED TROUGH EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST. THERE ARE ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEST COAST, RELATED TO THE
FORECAST RIDGE. NEAR- AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA
INCLUDING THE ALEUTIANS AND THE PANHANDLE, IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST,
TO SOUTHERN TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FORECAST TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS.  NEAR- TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE
MUCH OF THE CONUS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
THIS AREA IS UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND AWAY FROM THE MEAN STORM
TRACK.  THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLES RELATED TO A NORTHWARD DISPLACED STORM TRACK.


TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%
OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: NO PREFERENCE

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY THE
INCONSISTENT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS BETWEEN THE NAEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 13 2015

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTIONS ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE WEEK-2
PERIOD ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER NORTH AMERICA. A SHORT WAVE WITH A TROUGH IS
PREDICTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. OVER THE ALASKA SECTOR, A CONSENSUS OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS FORECAST A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE MOST PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE INTERIOR BASIN OF
ALASKA, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN CONUS NEAR THE FORECAST
TROUGH. WITH A TROUGH POSITION FORECAST NEAR THE WEST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS.

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR ALASKA INCLUDING THE
PANHANDLE AND THE ALEUTIANS RELATED TO A NORTHWARD DISPLACED STORM TRACK.
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS BEHIND OF THE MEAN TROUGH. ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE WEST COAST, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE SHORT
WAVE MOVING NEAR THE COAST.


THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL TOOLS, OFFSET BY THE FASTER EASTWARD SHIFT
OF THE PATTERNS IN GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN THAN THAT OF 0Z ECMWF.

FORECASTER: QIN GINGER ZHANG

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 19

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890210 - 20020302 - 20030208 - 19820207 - 19630308


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890209 - 20020302 - 19890214 - 20060215 - 19820206


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 05 - 09 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      N    B
W MONTANA   N    B     E MONTANA   N    B     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        N    B     ARIZONA     N    B     COLORADO    B    B
NEW MEXICO  B    N     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    N    B
NEBRASKA    N    B     KANSAS      B    B     OKLAHOMA    B    B
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     B    N
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   B    B
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    B
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    B    N
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    N     NEW YORK    B    N
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    B    N
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 07 - 13 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    B
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    N    B
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     B    N     W TEXAS     N    N
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        N    B     MISSOURI    N    B
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    N     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    B
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    N     NEW YORK    B    B
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    B     MAINE       B    B
MASS        B    B     CONN        B    B     RHODE IS    B    B
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  B    B
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    B    B
N CAROLINA  B    B     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N
FL PNHDL    B    N     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 271911
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
211 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

DISCUSSION FROM FEBRUARY 27/00UTC: MEANDERING MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH AMERICA. THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING THE
TROUGH IS TO RAPIDLY PULL AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. AT LOW
LEVELS...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS TO MEANDER OVER THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS-SOUTH FLORIDA/KEYS TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING THE
TRAILING END OVER THE GULF RETROGRESS TO THE NORTHERN
GULF/NORTHEAST MEXICO-SOUTH TEXAS. IT IS TO THEN WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN USA LATER IN THE DAY/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS IS TO
SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND WIDELY ISOLATED MAXIMA
OF 10MM. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION OVER WESTERN CUBA...MEANWHILE...IS
TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON
THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ALSO AT MID LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS
TO THEN AMPLIFY ACROSS CALIFORNIA TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATER ON
SATURDAY. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY THE TROUGH REACHES MAXIMUM
AMPLITUDE...DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA. AS IT
DEEPENS...THE TROUGH IS TO ESTABLISH A TROPICAL
CONNECTION...ADVECTING DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA
PENINSULA TO SONORA/SINALOA-CHIHUAHUA IN NORTHWEST MEXICO. ACROSS
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON SUNDAY TO MONDAY
MORNING...WHILE OVER SONORA-WESTERN CHIHUAHUA-NORTHERN SINALOA IT
IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

SOUTH OVER THE CARIBBEAN...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES FLOW
ACROSS THE BASIN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A 500 HPA HIGH NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLES IS TO ANCHOR THIS RIDGE EARLY IN THE
CYCLE. THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO RELOCATE
TO HAITI...WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL STATES OF MEXICO. LATER ON SUNDAY
THE HIGH IS TO ESTABLISH FARTHER TO THE WEST...CENTERING OVER THE
YUCATAN/SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WEST...THIS
IS TO STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WINDS CAP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO...WHILE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA-ISLANDS OF THE CARIBBEAN THE
STRONG CAP INVERSION IS TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AT LOW LEVELS...AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN/GULF OF MEXICO. POLAR FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC IS TO SLOWLY LIFT OVER THIS AXIS. AS THE TROUGH
PULLS AWAY...THE RIDGE IS TO WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WHILE A SECONDARY CELL IS TO GRADUALLY ESTABLISH ACROSS
THE EASTERN USA-WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF LATER DURING THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS TO THE EAST...GRADIENT OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC-EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS TO SLACKEN. BUT AS THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST...GRADIENT IS TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL-WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN
TROPICAL PACIFIC. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THE TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC-EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS TO SUSTAIN A TRADE WINDS
SURGE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO PUERTO RICO-VIRGIN ISLES. THE
STRONG WINDS ARE TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS THE CENTRAL-WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WINDS ARE TO SURGE EARLY IN THE CYCLE...AND STRONG WINDS
ARE TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NICARAGUA...WHERE THE 850 HPA WINDS
ARE TO PEAK AT 40-45KT. IN A STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CAP...THE
STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO FAVOR ADVECTION OF SHALLOW CLOUD
CLUSTERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES AND GENERATION OF
STREAMERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN TO
PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THIS IS TO THEN
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. OVER
JAMAICA EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM...WITH MOST INTENSE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM ON SATURDAY TO SUNDAY EVENING. BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS TO THEN FAVOR RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS A STRONG
CAP INVERSION ENVELOPS CENTRAL AMERICA.

DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE...AT 250 HPA...A TUTT EXTENDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG 23N 40W...17N 50W...WINDWARD ISLES TO
NORTHEAST VENEZUELA/SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST... THE TROUGH ALOFT IS TO SHEAR A VORTEX THAT
RETROGRESSES ACROSS VENEZUELA THROUGH MIDDAY ON SATURDAY...INTO
COLOMBIA LATER IN THE DAY/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH ALOFT
SUSTAINS AN INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. THIS
IS TO MOVE IN-TANDEM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION...BUT TENDS
TO WEAKEN/BECOME ILL DEFINED OVER THE ANDES MOUNTAINS. AS IT PULLS
ACROSS VENEZUELA THIS IS TO INTERACT WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ACROSS NORTHWEST VENEZUELA TO SANTANDERES IN
COLOMBIA THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. FURTHERMORE...A MOIST PLUME ALONG THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THIS TROUGH IS TO MIGRATE ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
TO THE ABC ISLES EARLY IN THE CYCLE...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.

A PERTURBATION IN THE EASTERLY TRADES IS TO ENTER FRENCH GUIANA
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH MODELS CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING A
RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTION AS IT MOVES TO SURINAME LATER IN THE
DAY. THIS IS TO FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.

OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...THE ITCZ ENTERS THE CONTINENT OVER
SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA...WHERE IT FORECAST TO MEANDER DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ALSO AT LOW LEVELS...A TROUGH BOUNDS THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA TO ECUADOR. THIS IS ENHANCING COASTAL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...WHILE ALSO ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ANDES. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION
TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH WIDELY ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.
AS THE TRADES INTENSIFY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN-CENTRAL AMERICA...A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED LATER DURING THE
WEEKEND...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO DECREASE TO 00-05MM/DAY AND
WIDELY ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 10MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS... HOWEVER... ARE
TO PERSIST TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CAUCA/CAUCA VALLEY... WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING THE MAXIMA IN THIS AREA INCREASES TO 20-40MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
NONE

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
NANDA...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 271911
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
211 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

DISCUSSION FROM FEBRUARY 27/00UTC: MEANDERING MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH AMERICA. THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING THE
TROUGH IS TO RAPIDLY PULL AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. AT LOW
LEVELS...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS TO MEANDER OVER THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS-SOUTH FLORIDA/KEYS TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING THE
TRAILING END OVER THE GULF RETROGRESS TO THE NORTHERN
GULF/NORTHEAST MEXICO-SOUTH TEXAS. IT IS TO THEN WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN USA LATER IN THE DAY/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS IS TO
SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND WIDELY ISOLATED MAXIMA
OF 10MM. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION OVER WESTERN CUBA...MEANWHILE...IS
TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON
THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ALSO AT MID LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS
TO THEN AMPLIFY ACROSS CALIFORNIA TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATER ON
SATURDAY. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY THE TROUGH REACHES MAXIMUM
AMPLITUDE...DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA. AS IT
DEEPENS...THE TROUGH IS TO ESTABLISH A TROPICAL
CONNECTION...ADVECTING DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA
PENINSULA TO SONORA/SINALOA-CHIHUAHUA IN NORTHWEST MEXICO. ACROSS
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON SUNDAY TO MONDAY
MORNING...WHILE OVER SONORA-WESTERN CHIHUAHUA-NORTHERN SINALOA IT
IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

SOUTH OVER THE CARIBBEAN...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES FLOW
ACROSS THE BASIN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A 500 HPA HIGH NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLES IS TO ANCHOR THIS RIDGE EARLY IN THE
CYCLE. THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO RELOCATE
TO HAITI...WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL STATES OF MEXICO. LATER ON SUNDAY
THE HIGH IS TO ESTABLISH FARTHER TO THE WEST...CENTERING OVER THE
YUCATAN/SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WEST...THIS
IS TO STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WINDS CAP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO...WHILE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA-ISLANDS OF THE CARIBBEAN THE
STRONG CAP INVERSION IS TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AT LOW LEVELS...AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN/GULF OF MEXICO. POLAR FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC IS TO SLOWLY LIFT OVER THIS AXIS. AS THE TROUGH
PULLS AWAY...THE RIDGE IS TO WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WHILE A SECONDARY CELL IS TO GRADUALLY ESTABLISH ACROSS
THE EASTERN USA-WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF LATER DURING THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS TO THE EAST...GRADIENT OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC-EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS TO SLACKEN. BUT AS THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST...GRADIENT IS TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL-WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN
TROPICAL PACIFIC. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THE TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC-EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS TO SUSTAIN A TRADE WINDS
SURGE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO PUERTO RICO-VIRGIN ISLES. THE
STRONG WINDS ARE TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS THE CENTRAL-WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WINDS ARE TO SURGE EARLY IN THE CYCLE...AND STRONG WINDS
ARE TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NICARAGUA...WHERE THE 850 HPA WINDS
ARE TO PEAK AT 40-45KT. IN A STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CAP...THE
STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO FAVOR ADVECTION OF SHALLOW CLOUD
CLUSTERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES AND GENERATION OF
STREAMERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN TO
PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THIS IS TO THEN
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. OVER
JAMAICA EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM...WITH MOST INTENSE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM ON SATURDAY TO SUNDAY EVENING. BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS TO THEN FAVOR RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS A STRONG
CAP INVERSION ENVELOPS CENTRAL AMERICA.

DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE...AT 250 HPA...A TUTT EXTENDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG 23N 40W...17N 50W...WINDWARD ISLES TO
NORTHEAST VENEZUELA/SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST... THE TROUGH ALOFT IS TO SHEAR A VORTEX THAT
RETROGRESSES ACROSS VENEZUELA THROUGH MIDDAY ON SATURDAY...INTO
COLOMBIA LATER IN THE DAY/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH ALOFT
SUSTAINS AN INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. THIS
IS TO MOVE IN-TANDEM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION...BUT TENDS
TO WEAKEN/BECOME ILL DEFINED OVER THE ANDES MOUNTAINS. AS IT PULLS
ACROSS VENEZUELA THIS IS TO INTERACT WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ACROSS NORTHWEST VENEZUELA TO SANTANDERES IN
COLOMBIA THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. FURTHERMORE...A MOIST PLUME ALONG THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THIS TROUGH IS TO MIGRATE ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
TO THE ABC ISLES EARLY IN THE CYCLE...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.

A PERTURBATION IN THE EASTERLY TRADES IS TO ENTER FRENCH GUIANA
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH MODELS CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING A
RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTION AS IT MOVES TO SURINAME LATER IN THE
DAY. THIS IS TO FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.

OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...THE ITCZ ENTERS THE CONTINENT OVER
SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA...WHERE IT FORECAST TO MEANDER DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ALSO AT LOW LEVELS...A TROUGH BOUNDS THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA TO ECUADOR. THIS IS ENHANCING COASTAL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...WHILE ALSO ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ANDES. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION
TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH WIDELY ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.
AS THE TRADES INTENSIFY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN-CENTRAL AMERICA...A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED LATER DURING THE
WEEKEND...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO DECREASE TO 00-05MM/DAY AND
WIDELY ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 10MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS... HOWEVER... ARE
TO PERSIST TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CAUCA/CAUCA VALLEY... WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING THE MAXIMA IN THIS AREA INCREASES TO 20-40MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
NONE

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
NANDA...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 271911
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
211 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

DISCUSSION FROM FEBRUARY 27/00UTC: MEANDERING MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH AMERICA. THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING THE
TROUGH IS TO RAPIDLY PULL AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. AT LOW
LEVELS...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS TO MEANDER OVER THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS-SOUTH FLORIDA/KEYS TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. EARLY ON SATURDAY MORNING THE
TRAILING END OVER THE GULF RETROGRESS TO THE NORTHERN
GULF/NORTHEAST MEXICO-SOUTH TEXAS. IT IS TO THEN WEAKEN AS IT
MEANDERS NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN USA LATER IN THE DAY/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS IS TO
SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND WIDELY ISOLATED MAXIMA
OF 10MM. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION OVER WESTERN CUBA...MEANWHILE...IS
TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON
THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ALSO AT MID LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS
TO THEN AMPLIFY ACROSS CALIFORNIA TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC LATER ON
SATURDAY. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY THE TROUGH REACHES MAXIMUM
AMPLITUDE...DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA. AS IT
DEEPENS...THE TROUGH IS TO ESTABLISH A TROPICAL
CONNECTION...ADVECTING DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA
PENINSULA TO SONORA/SINALOA-CHIHUAHUA IN NORTHWEST MEXICO. ACROSS
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON SUNDAY TO MONDAY
MORNING...WHILE OVER SONORA-WESTERN CHIHUAHUA-NORTHERN SINALOA IT
IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

SOUTH OVER THE CARIBBEAN...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES FLOW
ACROSS THE BASIN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A 500 HPA HIGH NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLES IS TO ANCHOR THIS RIDGE EARLY IN THE
CYCLE. THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO RELOCATE
TO HAITI...WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL STATES OF MEXICO. LATER ON SUNDAY
THE HIGH IS TO ESTABLISH FARTHER TO THE WEST...CENTERING OVER THE
YUCATAN/SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WEST...THIS
IS TO STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WINDS CAP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO...WHILE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA-ISLANDS OF THE CARIBBEAN THE
STRONG CAP INVERSION IS TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AT LOW LEVELS...AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN/GULF OF MEXICO. POLAR FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC IS TO SLOWLY LIFT OVER THIS AXIS. AS THE TROUGH
PULLS AWAY...THE RIDGE IS TO WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WHILE A SECONDARY CELL IS TO GRADUALLY ESTABLISH ACROSS
THE EASTERN USA-WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF LATER DURING THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS TO THE EAST...GRADIENT OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC-EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS TO SLACKEN. BUT AS THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE WEST...GRADIENT IS TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL-WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN
TROPICAL PACIFIC. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THE TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC-EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS TO SUSTAIN A TRADE WINDS
SURGE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO PUERTO RICO-VIRGIN ISLES. THE
STRONG WINDS ARE TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS THE CENTRAL-WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WINDS ARE TO SURGE EARLY IN THE CYCLE...AND STRONG WINDS
ARE TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH MONDAY. THE
STRONGEST ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NICARAGUA...WHERE THE 850 HPA WINDS
ARE TO PEAK AT 40-45KT. IN A STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CAP...THE
STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO FAVOR ADVECTION OF SHALLOW CLOUD
CLUSTERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES AND GENERATION OF
STREAMERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN TO
PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THIS IS TO THEN
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. OVER
JAMAICA EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM...WITH MOST INTENSE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM ON SATURDAY TO SUNDAY EVENING. BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS TO THEN FAVOR RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS A STRONG
CAP INVERSION ENVELOPS CENTRAL AMERICA.

DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE...AT 250 HPA...A TUTT EXTENDS
TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG 23N 40W...17N 50W...WINDWARD ISLES TO
NORTHEAST VENEZUELA/SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST... THE TROUGH ALOFT IS TO SHEAR A VORTEX THAT
RETROGRESSES ACROSS VENEZUELA THROUGH MIDDAY ON SATURDAY...INTO
COLOMBIA LATER IN THE DAY/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH ALOFT
SUSTAINS AN INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. THIS
IS TO MOVE IN-TANDEM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION...BUT TENDS
TO WEAKEN/BECOME ILL DEFINED OVER THE ANDES MOUNTAINS. AS IT PULLS
ACROSS VENEZUELA THIS IS TO INTERACT WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ACROSS NORTHWEST VENEZUELA TO SANTANDERES IN
COLOMBIA THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. FURTHERMORE...A MOIST PLUME ALONG THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THIS TROUGH IS TO MIGRATE ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
TO THE ABC ISLES EARLY IN THE CYCLE...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.

A PERTURBATION IN THE EASTERLY TRADES IS TO ENTER FRENCH GUIANA
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH MODELS CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING A
RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTION AS IT MOVES TO SURINAME LATER IN THE
DAY. THIS IS TO FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.

OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...THE ITCZ ENTERS THE CONTINENT OVER
SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA...WHERE IT FORECAST TO MEANDER DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ALSO AT LOW LEVELS...A TROUGH BOUNDS THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA TO ECUADOR. THIS IS ENHANCING COASTAL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...WHILE ALSO ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ANDES. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING DIURNAL CONVECTION
TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH WIDELY ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.
AS THE TRADES INTENSIFY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN-CENTRAL AMERICA...A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED LATER DURING THE
WEEKEND...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO DECREASE TO 00-05MM/DAY AND
WIDELY ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 10MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS... HOWEVER... ARE
TO PERSIST TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CAUCA/CAUCA VALLEY... WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING THE MAXIMA IN THIS AREA INCREASES TO 20-40MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
NONE

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
NANDA...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXSA20 KWBC 271626
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1126 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

MODEL DISCUSSION (VALID FROM FEBRUARY 27 AT 00UTC): DEEP MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AS IT
EXTENDS NORTH BETWEEN 55W-20W TO 25S. THE TROUGH REACHES MAXIMUM
AMPLITUDE EARLY IN THE CYCLE...THEN STARTS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
MIGRATES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THROUGH 48 HRS THE TROUGH IS TO
PULL ACROSS 20W...NEARING 05W BY 96 HRS. AT LOW LEVELS THIS
SUSTAINS A POLAR FRONT ACROSS ARGENTINA...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN BRASIL-NORTHERN PROVINCES IN ARGENTINA BY 24 HRS.
THE FRONT IS TO THEN STALL OVER SOUTHERN STATES OF BRASIL...WHERE
IT IS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 84-96 HRS. AS IT MEANDERS OVER
SOUTHERN BRASIL-CORRIENTES IN ARGENTINA THIS IS TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF 20-30MM. THROUGH 36-60
HRS THIS DECREASES TO 15-25MM. OTHER CONVECTION IS TO BUILD
FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST BRASIL...WHERE THE AMPLIFYING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OVER
SAO PAULO-RIO DE JANEIRO-ESPIRITO SANTO AND SOUTHEAST MINAS GERAIS
THIS IS TO SUSTAIN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION THROUGH 48-60
HRS...WHEN THE DAILY RAINFALL MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT 20-40MM. DUE TO
STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY
LIKELY.

THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGH 24 HRS. THIS IS TO NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CHILE
BY 60 HRS...AND THEN INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONE INTO
ARGENTINA BY 84-96 HRS. BUT AS IT PRESSES AGAINST A RIDGE TO THE
EAST...THE TROUGH IS TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE/LONG WAVE TROUGH IS TO FOCUS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHILE. AT LOW LEVELS THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A
BROAD TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW...FORECAST TO EXTEND
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA/SOUTHEAST PACIFIC TO THE
SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS TO
STRETCH ACROSS THE DRAKE PASSAGE/TIERRA DEL FUEGO BY 48 HRS. IT
THEN MOVES NORTH INTO PATAGONIA-SOUTHERN CHILE BY 72
HRS...REACHING THE BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE/MENDOZA IN ARGENTINA BY
96-120 HRS. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ARE TO ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY...WITH WINDS FORECAST
TO PEAK AT 35-45KT. THE INFLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS TO
SUSTAIN MODERATE...LOCALLY HEAVY... CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CHILE. IN THIS AREA THE DAILY  MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT
15-20MM. OVER CENTRAL ARGENTINA THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-35MM LATER IN THE CYCLE.

ON THE NORTHERN STREAM...A MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE TO MEANDER OFF THE COAST OF CHILE THROUGH 36-48 HRS.
THROUGH 60 HRS THE LOW WEAKENS TO AN OPEN TROUGH. THIS IS TO THEN
RAPIDLY SHEAR EASTWARD ACROSS THE ANDES INTO CENTRAL ARGENTINA AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONG WAVE TROUGH NEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CHILE. INFLOW OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL ANDES OF CHILE...WITH ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM EXPECTED ON DAYS 01-02. OVER ARGENTINA...INFLOW OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY IS TO THEN INTERACT WITH THE THERMAL LOW...TO SUSTAIN
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PROVINCES IN
ARGENTINA TO NORTHERN URUGUAY/SOUTHERN STATES OF BRASIL. IN THIS
AREA EXPECTING DEEP CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL MAXIMA OF
30-60MM IN POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION LATER ON DAY
03...DECREASING TO 20-40MM THROUGH DAY 04.

NORTH OVER THE CONTINENT...AT 200 HPA...DISORGANIZED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE PATTERN IS TO DOMINATE PERU-WESTERN BRASIL-BOLIVIA EARLY IN
THE CYCLE. THROUGH 48-72 HRS THE HIGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS BRASIL. AS THE
RIDGE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED DIURNAL/TROPICAL CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT IS TO ALSO BECOME MORE ACTIVE.
MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BRASIL-PERU/EASTERN ECUADOR...WITH
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. OVER WESTERN ECUADOR...AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48-72 HRS...WHEN STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW IS TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST INTO THE
ANDES MOUNTAINS...TO RESULT IN RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ACROSS
NORTHEAST BRASIL SCATTERED CONVECTION IS TO SUSTAIN MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY. ON THE SIERRA OF PERU-ALTIPLANO OF BOLIVIA THE DAILY
MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT 05-10MM.

ARREAGA...INAMHI (ECUADOR)
SCHNEIDER...INMET (BRASIL)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

$$






000
FXSA20 KWBC 271626
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1126 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

MODEL DISCUSSION (VALID FROM FEBRUARY 27 AT 00UTC): DEEP MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AS IT
EXTENDS NORTH BETWEEN 55W-20W TO 25S. THE TROUGH REACHES MAXIMUM
AMPLITUDE EARLY IN THE CYCLE...THEN STARTS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
MIGRATES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THROUGH 48 HRS THE TROUGH IS TO
PULL ACROSS 20W...NEARING 05W BY 96 HRS. AT LOW LEVELS THIS
SUSTAINS A POLAR FRONT ACROSS ARGENTINA...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN BRASIL-NORTHERN PROVINCES IN ARGENTINA BY 24 HRS.
THE FRONT IS TO THEN STALL OVER SOUTHERN STATES OF BRASIL...WHERE
IT IS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 84-96 HRS. AS IT MEANDERS OVER
SOUTHERN BRASIL-CORRIENTES IN ARGENTINA THIS IS TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF 20-30MM. THROUGH 36-60
HRS THIS DECREASES TO 15-25MM. OTHER CONVECTION IS TO BUILD
FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST BRASIL...WHERE THE AMPLIFYING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OVER
SAO PAULO-RIO DE JANEIRO-ESPIRITO SANTO AND SOUTHEAST MINAS GERAIS
THIS IS TO SUSTAIN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION THROUGH 48-60
HRS...WHEN THE DAILY RAINFALL MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT 20-40MM. DUE TO
STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY
LIKELY.

THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGH 24 HRS. THIS IS TO NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CHILE
BY 60 HRS...AND THEN INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONE INTO
ARGENTINA BY 84-96 HRS. BUT AS IT PRESSES AGAINST A RIDGE TO THE
EAST...THE TROUGH IS TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE/LONG WAVE TROUGH IS TO FOCUS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHILE. AT LOW LEVELS THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A
BROAD TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW...FORECAST TO EXTEND
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA/SOUTHEAST PACIFIC TO THE
SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS TO
STRETCH ACROSS THE DRAKE PASSAGE/TIERRA DEL FUEGO BY 48 HRS. IT
THEN MOVES NORTH INTO PATAGONIA-SOUTHERN CHILE BY 72
HRS...REACHING THE BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE/MENDOZA IN ARGENTINA BY
96-120 HRS. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ARE TO ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY...WITH WINDS FORECAST
TO PEAK AT 35-45KT. THE INFLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS TO
SUSTAIN MODERATE...LOCALLY HEAVY... CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CHILE. IN THIS AREA THE DAILY  MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT
15-20MM. OVER CENTRAL ARGENTINA THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-35MM LATER IN THE CYCLE.

ON THE NORTHERN STREAM...A MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE TO MEANDER OFF THE COAST OF CHILE THROUGH 36-48 HRS.
THROUGH 60 HRS THE LOW WEAKENS TO AN OPEN TROUGH. THIS IS TO THEN
RAPIDLY SHEAR EASTWARD ACROSS THE ANDES INTO CENTRAL ARGENTINA AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONG WAVE TROUGH NEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CHILE. INFLOW OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL ANDES OF CHILE...WITH ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM EXPECTED ON DAYS 01-02. OVER ARGENTINA...INFLOW OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY IS TO THEN INTERACT WITH THE THERMAL LOW...TO SUSTAIN
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PROVINCES IN
ARGENTINA TO NORTHERN URUGUAY/SOUTHERN STATES OF BRASIL. IN THIS
AREA EXPECTING DEEP CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL MAXIMA OF
30-60MM IN POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION LATER ON DAY
03...DECREASING TO 20-40MM THROUGH DAY 04.

NORTH OVER THE CONTINENT...AT 200 HPA...DISORGANIZED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE PATTERN IS TO DOMINATE PERU-WESTERN BRASIL-BOLIVIA EARLY IN
THE CYCLE. THROUGH 48-72 HRS THE HIGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS BRASIL. AS THE
RIDGE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED DIURNAL/TROPICAL CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT IS TO ALSO BECOME MORE ACTIVE.
MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BRASIL-PERU/EASTERN ECUADOR...WITH
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. OVER WESTERN ECUADOR...AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48-72 HRS...WHEN STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW IS TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST INTO THE
ANDES MOUNTAINS...TO RESULT IN RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ACROSS
NORTHEAST BRASIL SCATTERED CONVECTION IS TO SUSTAIN MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY. ON THE SIERRA OF PERU-ALTIPLANO OF BOLIVIA THE DAILY
MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT 05-10MM.

ARREAGA...INAMHI (ECUADOR)
SCHNEIDER...INMET (BRASIL)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

$$






000
FXSA20 KWBC 271626
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1126 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

MODEL DISCUSSION (VALID FROM FEBRUARY 27 AT 00UTC): DEEP MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AS IT
EXTENDS NORTH BETWEEN 55W-20W TO 25S. THE TROUGH REACHES MAXIMUM
AMPLITUDE EARLY IN THE CYCLE...THEN STARTS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
MIGRATES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THROUGH 48 HRS THE TROUGH IS TO
PULL ACROSS 20W...NEARING 05W BY 96 HRS. AT LOW LEVELS THIS
SUSTAINS A POLAR FRONT ACROSS ARGENTINA...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN BRASIL-NORTHERN PROVINCES IN ARGENTINA BY 24 HRS.
THE FRONT IS TO THEN STALL OVER SOUTHERN STATES OF BRASIL...WHERE
IT IS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 84-96 HRS. AS IT MEANDERS OVER
SOUTHERN BRASIL-CORRIENTES IN ARGENTINA THIS IS TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF 20-30MM. THROUGH 36-60
HRS THIS DECREASES TO 15-25MM. OTHER CONVECTION IS TO BUILD
FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST BRASIL...WHERE THE AMPLIFYING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OVER
SAO PAULO-RIO DE JANEIRO-ESPIRITO SANTO AND SOUTHEAST MINAS GERAIS
THIS IS TO SUSTAIN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION THROUGH 48-60
HRS...WHEN THE DAILY RAINFALL MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT 20-40MM. DUE TO
STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY
LIKELY.

THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGH 24 HRS. THIS IS TO NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CHILE
BY 60 HRS...AND THEN INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONE INTO
ARGENTINA BY 84-96 HRS. BUT AS IT PRESSES AGAINST A RIDGE TO THE
EAST...THE TROUGH IS TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE/LONG WAVE TROUGH IS TO FOCUS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHILE. AT LOW LEVELS THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A
BROAD TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW...FORECAST TO EXTEND
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA/SOUTHEAST PACIFIC TO THE
SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS TO
STRETCH ACROSS THE DRAKE PASSAGE/TIERRA DEL FUEGO BY 48 HRS. IT
THEN MOVES NORTH INTO PATAGONIA-SOUTHERN CHILE BY 72
HRS...REACHING THE BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE/MENDOZA IN ARGENTINA BY
96-120 HRS. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ARE TO ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY...WITH WINDS FORECAST
TO PEAK AT 35-45KT. THE INFLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS TO
SUSTAIN MODERATE...LOCALLY HEAVY... CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CHILE. IN THIS AREA THE DAILY  MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT
15-20MM. OVER CENTRAL ARGENTINA THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-35MM LATER IN THE CYCLE.

ON THE NORTHERN STREAM...A MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE TO MEANDER OFF THE COAST OF CHILE THROUGH 36-48 HRS.
THROUGH 60 HRS THE LOW WEAKENS TO AN OPEN TROUGH. THIS IS TO THEN
RAPIDLY SHEAR EASTWARD ACROSS THE ANDES INTO CENTRAL ARGENTINA AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONG WAVE TROUGH NEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CHILE. INFLOW OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL ANDES OF CHILE...WITH ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM EXPECTED ON DAYS 01-02. OVER ARGENTINA...INFLOW OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY IS TO THEN INTERACT WITH THE THERMAL LOW...TO SUSTAIN
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PROVINCES IN
ARGENTINA TO NORTHERN URUGUAY/SOUTHERN STATES OF BRASIL. IN THIS
AREA EXPECTING DEEP CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL MAXIMA OF
30-60MM IN POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION LATER ON DAY
03...DECREASING TO 20-40MM THROUGH DAY 04.

NORTH OVER THE CONTINENT...AT 200 HPA...DISORGANIZED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE PATTERN IS TO DOMINATE PERU-WESTERN BRASIL-BOLIVIA EARLY IN
THE CYCLE. THROUGH 48-72 HRS THE HIGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS BRASIL. AS THE
RIDGE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED DIURNAL/TROPICAL CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT IS TO ALSO BECOME MORE ACTIVE.
MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BRASIL-PERU/EASTERN ECUADOR...WITH
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. OVER WESTERN ECUADOR...AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48-72 HRS...WHEN STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW IS TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST INTO THE
ANDES MOUNTAINS...TO RESULT IN RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ACROSS
NORTHEAST BRASIL SCATTERED CONVECTION IS TO SUSTAIN MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY. ON THE SIERRA OF PERU-ALTIPLANO OF BOLIVIA THE DAILY
MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT 05-10MM.

ARREAGA...INAMHI (ECUADOR)
SCHNEIDER...INMET (BRASIL)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

$$







000
FXSA20 KWBC 271626
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1126 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

MODEL DISCUSSION (VALID FROM FEBRUARY 27 AT 00UTC): DEEP MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AS IT
EXTENDS NORTH BETWEEN 55W-20W TO 25S. THE TROUGH REACHES MAXIMUM
AMPLITUDE EARLY IN THE CYCLE...THEN STARTS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
MIGRATES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THROUGH 48 HRS THE TROUGH IS TO
PULL ACROSS 20W...NEARING 05W BY 96 HRS. AT LOW LEVELS THIS
SUSTAINS A POLAR FRONT ACROSS ARGENTINA...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH
INTO SOUTHERN BRASIL-NORTHERN PROVINCES IN ARGENTINA BY 24 HRS.
THE FRONT IS TO THEN STALL OVER SOUTHERN STATES OF BRASIL...WHERE
IT IS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 84-96 HRS. AS IT MEANDERS OVER
SOUTHERN BRASIL-CORRIENTES IN ARGENTINA THIS IS TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF 20-30MM. THROUGH 36-60
HRS THIS DECREASES TO 15-25MM. OTHER CONVECTION IS TO BUILD
FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST BRASIL...WHERE THE AMPLIFYING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. OVER
SAO PAULO-RIO DE JANEIRO-ESPIRITO SANTO AND SOUTHEAST MINAS GERAIS
THIS IS TO SUSTAIN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION THROUGH 48-60
HRS...WHEN THE DAILY RAINFALL MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT 20-40MM. DUE TO
STRONG TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY
LIKELY.

THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC THROUGH 24 HRS. THIS IS TO NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CHILE
BY 60 HRS...AND THEN INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONE INTO
ARGENTINA BY 84-96 HRS. BUT AS IT PRESSES AGAINST A RIDGE TO THE
EAST...THE TROUGH IS TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE/LONG WAVE TROUGH IS TO FOCUS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHILE. AT LOW LEVELS THIS IS TO SUSTAIN A
BROAD TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW...FORECAST TO EXTEND
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA/SOUTHEAST PACIFIC TO THE
SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS TO
STRETCH ACROSS THE DRAKE PASSAGE/TIERRA DEL FUEGO BY 48 HRS. IT
THEN MOVES NORTH INTO PATAGONIA-SOUTHERN CHILE BY 72
HRS...REACHING THE BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE/MENDOZA IN ARGENTINA BY
96-120 HRS. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ARE TO ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY...WITH WINDS FORECAST
TO PEAK AT 35-45KT. THE INFLOW OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS TO
SUSTAIN MODERATE...LOCALLY HEAVY... CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CHILE. IN THIS AREA THE DAILY  MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT
15-20MM. OVER CENTRAL ARGENTINA THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-35MM LATER IN THE CYCLE.

ON THE NORTHERN STREAM...A MID LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ARE TO MEANDER OFF THE COAST OF CHILE THROUGH 36-48 HRS.
THROUGH 60 HRS THE LOW WEAKENS TO AN OPEN TROUGH. THIS IS TO THEN
RAPIDLY SHEAR EASTWARD ACROSS THE ANDES INTO CENTRAL ARGENTINA AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED LONG WAVE TROUGH NEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CHILE. INFLOW OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL ANDES OF CHILE...WITH ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM EXPECTED ON DAYS 01-02. OVER ARGENTINA...INFLOW OF MID
LEVEL ENERGY IS TO THEN INTERACT WITH THE THERMAL LOW...TO SUSTAIN
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PROVINCES IN
ARGENTINA TO NORTHERN URUGUAY/SOUTHERN STATES OF BRASIL. IN THIS
AREA EXPECTING DEEP CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL MAXIMA OF
30-60MM IN POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION LATER ON DAY
03...DECREASING TO 20-40MM THROUGH DAY 04.

NORTH OVER THE CONTINENT...AT 200 HPA...DISORGANIZED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE PATTERN IS TO DOMINATE PERU-WESTERN BRASIL-BOLIVIA EARLY IN
THE CYCLE. THROUGH 48-72 HRS THE HIGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS BRASIL. AS THE
RIDGE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED DIURNAL/TROPICAL CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT IS TO ALSO BECOME MORE ACTIVE.
MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BRASIL-PERU/EASTERN ECUADOR...WITH
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. OVER WESTERN ECUADOR...AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48-72 HRS...WHEN STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW IS TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST INTO THE
ANDES MOUNTAINS...TO RESULT IN RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ACROSS
NORTHEAST BRASIL SCATTERED CONVECTION IS TO SUSTAIN MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY. ON THE SIERRA OF PERU-ALTIPLANO OF BOLIVIA THE DAILY
MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT 05-10MM.

ARREAGA...INAMHI (ECUADOR)
SCHNEIDER...INMET (BRASIL)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 271557
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1057 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

VALID 12Z MON MAR 02 2015 - 12Z FRI MAR 06 2015

...MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE 27/00Z ECENS...NAEFS AND GEFS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE TEMPORARY
PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. OF THE 27/00Z DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS---THE GFS/ECMWF
LOOKED REASONABLE UNTIL 4/12Z ACROSS THE MIDWEST---BEFORE THE
SEPARATION BETWEEN THE GFS/CANADIAN (FASTER SURFACE CYCLONE/WAVE
TRACK) AND ECMWF (SLOWER TRACK) BECOME VERY DIFFERENT. QUICKLY
TAPERED AWAY FROM ANY DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION BY
5/00Z---PRIMARILY...TO MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES ALONG THE MODIFIED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
REGION (WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH DISTURBANCES). ANY LINGERING
MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE/DYNAMICS STREAMING OVER
THE TOP OF THE `NEW` SHALLOW MODIFIED-ARCTIC BOUNDARY COULD
PRESENT SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
US. WOULD THINK IT MIGHT TAKE A DAY OR TWO...TO GET A BETTER SENSE
OF THE TIMING AND/OR SEQUENCING OF SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND
MORE-ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MIGRATING FROM THE WEST COAST TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
THE `FOUR CORNERS` ENERGY MOVING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND
FORMING THE LEAD BOUNDARY APPEARS TO DELAY THE ARCTIC
FRONT---INITIALLY `SETTLED` OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE`S EXIT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES---SHOULD HELP BETTER TIME THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
PLUNGE AND ITS SOUTHEASTWARD SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES---FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD---CONCERNS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPSTREAM
(SOUTHERN BRANCH) ENERGY---STILL APPARENTLY LINGERING BACK ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THOUGH THE 27/00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS LITTLE IN COMMON WITH THE LOCATION OF
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY THAT MAY GENERATE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX---THE
BROAD-SCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS ANOTHER `OVER-RUNNING TYPE` SCENARIO
IS POSSIBLE (HAS POTENTIAL) FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD TO
THE CAROLINAS---WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE 3/00Z TO 4/12Z TIME FRAME SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE ONE FOR THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY---AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS AND MIGRATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE
A DISTINCT WINTER SIDE FOR THE PLAINS---AND A WINDY...WET AND VERY
MILD SPRING-LIKE SIDE WITHIN ITS WARM SECTOR---AS THE SYSTEM
MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SOUTHEAST TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE DROPS---ON THE ORDER OF 25-35F.

VOJTESAK

$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 271557
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1057 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

VALID 12Z MON MAR 02 2015 - 12Z FRI MAR 06 2015

...MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE 27/00Z ECENS...NAEFS AND GEFS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE TEMPORARY
PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. OF THE 27/00Z DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS---THE GFS/ECMWF
LOOKED REASONABLE UNTIL 4/12Z ACROSS THE MIDWEST---BEFORE THE
SEPARATION BETWEEN THE GFS/CANADIAN (FASTER SURFACE CYCLONE/WAVE
TRACK) AND ECMWF (SLOWER TRACK) BECOME VERY DIFFERENT. QUICKLY
TAPERED AWAY FROM ANY DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION BY
5/00Z---PRIMARILY...TO MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES ALONG THE MODIFIED
ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
REGION (WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH DISTURBANCES). ANY LINGERING
MID-LEVEL ENERGY AND DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE/DYNAMICS STREAMING OVER
THE TOP OF THE `NEW` SHALLOW MODIFIED-ARCTIC BOUNDARY COULD
PRESENT SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
US. WOULD THINK IT MIGHT TAKE A DAY OR TWO...TO GET A BETTER SENSE
OF THE TIMING AND/OR SEQUENCING OF SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND
MORE-ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE ENERGY MIGRATING FROM THE WEST COAST TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
THE `FOUR CORNERS` ENERGY MOVING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY AND
FORMING THE LEAD BOUNDARY APPEARS TO DELAY THE ARCTIC
FRONT---INITIALLY `SETTLED` OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE`S EXIT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES---SHOULD HELP BETTER TIME THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
PLUNGE AND ITS SOUTHEASTWARD SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
STATES---FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD---CONCERNS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND UPSTREAM
(SOUTHERN BRANCH) ENERGY---STILL APPARENTLY LINGERING BACK ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THOUGH THE 27/00Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS LITTLE IN COMMON WITH THE LOCATION OF
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY THAT MAY GENERATE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX---THE
BROAD-SCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS ANOTHER `OVER-RUNNING TYPE` SCENARIO
IS POSSIBLE (HAS POTENTIAL) FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD TO
THE CAROLINAS---WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE 3/00Z TO 4/12Z TIME FRAME SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE ONE FOR THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY---AS MID-LEVEL ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS AND MIGRATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE
A DISTINCT WINTER SIDE FOR THE PLAINS---AND A WINDY...WET AND VERY
MILD SPRING-LIKE SIDE WITHIN ITS WARM SECTOR---AS THE SYSTEM
MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SOUTHEAST TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...VERY SHARP TEMPERATURE DROPS---ON THE ORDER OF 25-35F.

VOJTESAK

$$






000
FXSA20 KWBC 271440
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
940 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM FEBRUARY 27 AT 00UTC): NORTH OVER THE
CONTINENT...AT 200 HPA...A WANING TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 23S
47W...20S 50W...18S 60W...10S 66W TO AMAZONAS IN BRASIL. THIS
TROUGH SEPARATES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE SUBEQUATORIAL
RIDGE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONFINES TO SOUTHEAST
BRASIL-PARAGUAY-NORTHERN CHILE/SOUTHERN PERU...WHILE CENTERING ON
A CLOSED HIGH OVER CENTRAL PARAGUAY. THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE LIES
TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING ACROSS PARA-NORTHEAST STATES OF BRASIL
WHILE CENTERING ON AN ILL ORGANIZED HIGH NEAR 05S 58W. TROPICAL
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CLUSTER ALONG THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN BRASIL...WHILE OTHER CONVECTION DOTTED THE SIERRA OF
PERU-ALTIPLANO OF BOLIVIA AND NORTHWEST ARGENTINA.

AT 250 HPA THE SOUTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 55S 103W...THEN
ALONG 61S 97W...EXITING AT 68S 84W. IT REFORMS AT 69S 68W...ALONG
61S 62W...EXITING AT 53S 57W. THE NORTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE
AT 42S 113W...ALONG 45S 106W...A 147KT MAXIMUM AT 50S 100W...A
150KT MAXIMUM AT 59S 92W...61S 81W...A 138KT MAXIMUM AT 56S
70W...45S 56W...EXITING AT 46S 35W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS ITS
ENTRANCE AT 34S 118W...ALONG 39S 107W...EXITING AT 51S 90W. IT
REFORMS AT 50S 74W...ALONG 46S 67W...EXITING AT 42S 61W. IT HAS A
FINGER TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 36S 73W AND 35S 79W. THE SUBTROPICAL
JET REFORMS AT 26S 78W...ALONG 32S 64W...SOUTHERN URUGUAY...34S
35W...39S 18W... AND 45S 00W.

AT 500 HPA...A RIDGE NOW EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED HIGH NEAR 40S
98W...ALONG 50S 90W...60S 90W...TO THE BELLINGSHAUSEN
SEA/ANTARCTIC PENINSULA. A BROAD TROUGH TO THE EAST EXTENDS
BETWEEN 75W-30W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 30S...WHILE ANCHORING ON A
CLOSED LOW NEAR 67S 50W. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH REVOLVES
AROUND THIS AXIS...WITH AXIS NORTHWEST FROM 53S 60W TO 44S 74W. ON
THE NORTHERN STREAM...MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MEANDERS OFF
THE COAST OF CHILE...CENTERING ON A CLOSED LOW NEAR 33S 87W. THIS
IS SHEARING SHORT WAVE VORTICES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ANDES INTO CUYO
IN ARGENTINA-THEN EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PROVINCES TO
URUGUAY/SOUTHERN STATES OF BRASIL.

A RIDGE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM LIES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
CENTERING ON TWO 1025 HPA HIGHS...WITH ONE AT 33S 101W AND THE
OTHER AT 41S 87W. A BROAD POLAR TROUGH LIES TO THE SOUTH...WITH A
FRONT EXTENDING ALONG A 992 HPA LOW AT 59S 86W...52S 89W...A 1006
HPA LOW AT 50S 96W...38S 103W...AND 33S 102W. BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN SOUTH ATLANTIC CENTERS ON AN OCCLUDED 962 HPA LOW AT
64S 38W. A POLAR FRONT TO THE NORTH EXTENDS FROM AN OCCLUDED 976
HPA LOW AT 50S 44W...A 974 HPA LOW AT 51S 41W...41S 52W...LA
PAMPA/NORTHERN PATAGONIA IN ARGENTINA. AN ELONGATED FRONT TO THE
EAST AND NORTH EXTENDS ALONG A 1002 HPA LOW AT 41S 16W...33S
28W...29S 70W... SOUTHERN URUGUAY TO CORDOBA IN ARGENTINA.
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION WAS BUILDING TO THE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
STATES OF BRASIL.

ARREAGA...INAMHI (ECUADOR)
SCHNEIDER...INMET (BRASIL)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

$$






000
FXSA20 KWBC 271440
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
940 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM FEBRUARY 27 AT 00UTC): NORTH OVER THE
CONTINENT...AT 200 HPA...A WANING TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 23S
47W...20S 50W...18S 60W...10S 66W TO AMAZONAS IN BRASIL. THIS
TROUGH SEPARATES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE SUBEQUATORIAL
RIDGE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONFINES TO SOUTHEAST
BRASIL-PARAGUAY-NORTHERN CHILE/SOUTHERN PERU...WHILE CENTERING ON
A CLOSED HIGH OVER CENTRAL PARAGUAY. THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE LIES
TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING ACROSS PARA-NORTHEAST STATES OF BRASIL
WHILE CENTERING ON AN ILL ORGANIZED HIGH NEAR 05S 58W. TROPICAL
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CLUSTER ALONG THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN BRASIL...WHILE OTHER CONVECTION DOTTED THE SIERRA OF
PERU-ALTIPLANO OF BOLIVIA AND NORTHWEST ARGENTINA.

AT 250 HPA THE SOUTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 55S 103W...THEN
ALONG 61S 97W...EXITING AT 68S 84W. IT REFORMS AT 69S 68W...ALONG
61S 62W...EXITING AT 53S 57W. THE NORTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE
AT 42S 113W...ALONG 45S 106W...A 147KT MAXIMUM AT 50S 100W...A
150KT MAXIMUM AT 59S 92W...61S 81W...A 138KT MAXIMUM AT 56S
70W...45S 56W...EXITING AT 46S 35W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS ITS
ENTRANCE AT 34S 118W...ALONG 39S 107W...EXITING AT 51S 90W. IT
REFORMS AT 50S 74W...ALONG 46S 67W...EXITING AT 42S 61W. IT HAS A
FINGER TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 36S 73W AND 35S 79W. THE SUBTROPICAL
JET REFORMS AT 26S 78W...ALONG 32S 64W...SOUTHERN URUGUAY...34S
35W...39S 18W... AND 45S 00W.

AT 500 HPA...A RIDGE NOW EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED HIGH NEAR 40S
98W...ALONG 50S 90W...60S 90W...TO THE BELLINGSHAUSEN
SEA/ANTARCTIC PENINSULA. A BROAD TROUGH TO THE EAST EXTENDS
BETWEEN 75W-30W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 30S...WHILE ANCHORING ON A
CLOSED LOW NEAR 67S 50W. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH REVOLVES
AROUND THIS AXIS...WITH AXIS NORTHWEST FROM 53S 60W TO 44S 74W. ON
THE NORTHERN STREAM...MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MEANDERS OFF
THE COAST OF CHILE...CENTERING ON A CLOSED LOW NEAR 33S 87W. THIS
IS SHEARING SHORT WAVE VORTICES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ANDES INTO CUYO
IN ARGENTINA-THEN EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PROVINCES TO
URUGUAY/SOUTHERN STATES OF BRASIL.

A RIDGE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM LIES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
CENTERING ON TWO 1025 HPA HIGHS...WITH ONE AT 33S 101W AND THE
OTHER AT 41S 87W. A BROAD POLAR TROUGH LIES TO THE SOUTH...WITH A
FRONT EXTENDING ALONG A 992 HPA LOW AT 59S 86W...52S 89W...A 1006
HPA LOW AT 50S 96W...38S 103W...AND 33S 102W. BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN SOUTH ATLANTIC CENTERS ON AN OCCLUDED 962 HPA LOW AT
64S 38W. A POLAR FRONT TO THE NORTH EXTENDS FROM AN OCCLUDED 976
HPA LOW AT 50S 44W...A 974 HPA LOW AT 51S 41W...41S 52W...LA
PAMPA/NORTHERN PATAGONIA IN ARGENTINA. AN ELONGATED FRONT TO THE
EAST AND NORTH EXTENDS ALONG A 1002 HPA LOW AT 41S 16W...33S
28W...29S 70W... SOUTHERN URUGUAY TO CORDOBA IN ARGENTINA.
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION WAS BUILDING TO THE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
STATES OF BRASIL.

ARREAGA...INAMHI (ECUADOR)
SCHNEIDER...INMET (BRASIL)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

$$







000
FXSA20 KWBC 271440
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
940 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM FEBRUARY 27 AT 00UTC): NORTH OVER THE
CONTINENT...AT 200 HPA...A WANING TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 23S
47W...20S 50W...18S 60W...10S 66W TO AMAZONAS IN BRASIL. THIS
TROUGH SEPARATES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE SUBEQUATORIAL
RIDGE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONFINES TO SOUTHEAST
BRASIL-PARAGUAY-NORTHERN CHILE/SOUTHERN PERU...WHILE CENTERING ON
A CLOSED HIGH OVER CENTRAL PARAGUAY. THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE LIES
TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING ACROSS PARA-NORTHEAST STATES OF BRASIL
WHILE CENTERING ON AN ILL ORGANIZED HIGH NEAR 05S 58W. TROPICAL
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CLUSTER ALONG THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN BRASIL...WHILE OTHER CONVECTION DOTTED THE SIERRA OF
PERU-ALTIPLANO OF BOLIVIA AND NORTHWEST ARGENTINA.

AT 250 HPA THE SOUTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 55S 103W...THEN
ALONG 61S 97W...EXITING AT 68S 84W. IT REFORMS AT 69S 68W...ALONG
61S 62W...EXITING AT 53S 57W. THE NORTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE
AT 42S 113W...ALONG 45S 106W...A 147KT MAXIMUM AT 50S 100W...A
150KT MAXIMUM AT 59S 92W...61S 81W...A 138KT MAXIMUM AT 56S
70W...45S 56W...EXITING AT 46S 35W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS ITS
ENTRANCE AT 34S 118W...ALONG 39S 107W...EXITING AT 51S 90W. IT
REFORMS AT 50S 74W...ALONG 46S 67W...EXITING AT 42S 61W. IT HAS A
FINGER TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 36S 73W AND 35S 79W. THE SUBTROPICAL
JET REFORMS AT 26S 78W...ALONG 32S 64W...SOUTHERN URUGUAY...34S
35W...39S 18W... AND 45S 00W.

AT 500 HPA...A RIDGE NOW EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED HIGH NEAR 40S
98W...ALONG 50S 90W...60S 90W...TO THE BELLINGSHAUSEN
SEA/ANTARCTIC PENINSULA. A BROAD TROUGH TO THE EAST EXTENDS
BETWEEN 75W-30W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 30S...WHILE ANCHORING ON A
CLOSED LOW NEAR 67S 50W. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH REVOLVES
AROUND THIS AXIS...WITH AXIS NORTHWEST FROM 53S 60W TO 44S 74W. ON
THE NORTHERN STREAM...MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MEANDERS OFF
THE COAST OF CHILE...CENTERING ON A CLOSED LOW NEAR 33S 87W. THIS
IS SHEARING SHORT WAVE VORTICES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ANDES INTO CUYO
IN ARGENTINA-THEN EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PROVINCES TO
URUGUAY/SOUTHERN STATES OF BRASIL.

A RIDGE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM LIES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
CENTERING ON TWO 1025 HPA HIGHS...WITH ONE AT 33S 101W AND THE
OTHER AT 41S 87W. A BROAD POLAR TROUGH LIES TO THE SOUTH...WITH A
FRONT EXTENDING ALONG A 992 HPA LOW AT 59S 86W...52S 89W...A 1006
HPA LOW AT 50S 96W...38S 103W...AND 33S 102W. BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN SOUTH ATLANTIC CENTERS ON AN OCCLUDED 962 HPA LOW AT
64S 38W. A POLAR FRONT TO THE NORTH EXTENDS FROM AN OCCLUDED 976
HPA LOW AT 50S 44W...A 974 HPA LOW AT 51S 41W...41S 52W...LA
PAMPA/NORTHERN PATAGONIA IN ARGENTINA. AN ELONGATED FRONT TO THE
EAST AND NORTH EXTENDS ALONG A 1002 HPA LOW AT 41S 16W...33S
28W...29S 70W... SOUTHERN URUGUAY TO CORDOBA IN ARGENTINA.
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION WAS BUILDING TO THE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
STATES OF BRASIL.

ARREAGA...INAMHI (ECUADOR)
SCHNEIDER...INMET (BRASIL)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

$$






000
FXSA20 KWBC 271440
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
940 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM FEBRUARY 27 AT 00UTC): NORTH OVER THE
CONTINENT...AT 200 HPA...A WANING TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 23S
47W...20S 50W...18S 60W...10S 66W TO AMAZONAS IN BRASIL. THIS
TROUGH SEPARATES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE SUBEQUATORIAL
RIDGE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONFINES TO SOUTHEAST
BRASIL-PARAGUAY-NORTHERN CHILE/SOUTHERN PERU...WHILE CENTERING ON
A CLOSED HIGH OVER CENTRAL PARAGUAY. THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE LIES
TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING ACROSS PARA-NORTHEAST STATES OF BRASIL
WHILE CENTERING ON AN ILL ORGANIZED HIGH NEAR 05S 58W. TROPICAL
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CLUSTER ALONG THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN BRASIL...WHILE OTHER CONVECTION DOTTED THE SIERRA OF
PERU-ALTIPLANO OF BOLIVIA AND NORTHWEST ARGENTINA.

AT 250 HPA THE SOUTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 55S 103W...THEN
ALONG 61S 97W...EXITING AT 68S 84W. IT REFORMS AT 69S 68W...ALONG
61S 62W...EXITING AT 53S 57W. THE NORTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE
AT 42S 113W...ALONG 45S 106W...A 147KT MAXIMUM AT 50S 100W...A
150KT MAXIMUM AT 59S 92W...61S 81W...A 138KT MAXIMUM AT 56S
70W...45S 56W...EXITING AT 46S 35W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS ITS
ENTRANCE AT 34S 118W...ALONG 39S 107W...EXITING AT 51S 90W. IT
REFORMS AT 50S 74W...ALONG 46S 67W...EXITING AT 42S 61W. IT HAS A
FINGER TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 36S 73W AND 35S 79W. THE SUBTROPICAL
JET REFORMS AT 26S 78W...ALONG 32S 64W...SOUTHERN URUGUAY...34S
35W...39S 18W... AND 45S 00W.

AT 500 HPA...A RIDGE NOW EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED HIGH NEAR 40S
98W...ALONG 50S 90W...60S 90W...TO THE BELLINGSHAUSEN
SEA/ANTARCTIC PENINSULA. A BROAD TROUGH TO THE EAST EXTENDS
BETWEEN 75W-30W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 30S...WHILE ANCHORING ON A
CLOSED LOW NEAR 67S 50W. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH REVOLVES
AROUND THIS AXIS...WITH AXIS NORTHWEST FROM 53S 60W TO 44S 74W. ON
THE NORTHERN STREAM...MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MEANDERS OFF
THE COAST OF CHILE...CENTERING ON A CLOSED LOW NEAR 33S 87W. THIS
IS SHEARING SHORT WAVE VORTICES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ANDES INTO CUYO
IN ARGENTINA-THEN EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL PROVINCES TO
URUGUAY/SOUTHERN STATES OF BRASIL.

A RIDGE ON THE NORTHERN STREAM LIES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
CENTERING ON TWO 1025 HPA HIGHS...WITH ONE AT 33S 101W AND THE
OTHER AT 41S 87W. A BROAD POLAR TROUGH LIES TO THE SOUTH...WITH A
FRONT EXTENDING ALONG A 992 HPA LOW AT 59S 86W...52S 89W...A 1006
HPA LOW AT 50S 96W...38S 103W...AND 33S 102W. BROAD TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN SOUTH ATLANTIC CENTERS ON AN OCCLUDED 962 HPA LOW AT
64S 38W. A POLAR FRONT TO THE NORTH EXTENDS FROM AN OCCLUDED 976
HPA LOW AT 50S 44W...A 974 HPA LOW AT 51S 41W...41S 52W...LA
PAMPA/NORTHERN PATAGONIA IN ARGENTINA. AN ELONGATED FRONT TO THE
EAST AND NORTH EXTENDS ALONG A 1002 HPA LOW AT 41S 16W...33S
28W...29S 70W... SOUTHERN URUGUAY TO CORDOBA IN ARGENTINA.
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION WAS BUILDING TO THE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
STATES OF BRASIL.

ARREAGA...INAMHI (ECUADOR)
SCHNEIDER...INMET (BRASIL)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 271132
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
632 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. POLAR FRONT
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC-GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO LIFT OVER
BROAD RIDGE TO THE EAST. AS THEY COLLIDE...THE MODELS FORECAST
GRADUAL EROSION OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS...EXPECTING SURGING EASTERLY TRADES TO GRADUALLY WANE.
MEANWHILE...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 20-25KT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. IN A STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
CAP...THESE ARE TO FAVOR ADVECTION OF SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES AND GENERATION OF STREAMERS
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. OVER THE VI/EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS
IS TO RESULT IN LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BRIEF SHOWERS...WITH
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS TO LIMIT TO EL YUNQUE...CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY FAVOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...IT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO IMPEDE THE SEA/LAND BREEZE
CYCLE TO ESTABLISH OVER THE LARGER ISLANDS.

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
NANDA...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 271132
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
632 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. POLAR FRONT
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC-GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO LIFT OVER
BROAD RIDGE TO THE EAST. AS THEY COLLIDE...THE MODELS FORECAST
GRADUAL EROSION OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE GRADIENT
SLACKENS...EXPECTING SURGING EASTERLY TRADES TO GRADUALLY WANE.
MEANWHILE...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 20-25KT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. IN A STRONG MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
CAP...THESE ARE TO FAVOR ADVECTION OF SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES AND GENERATION OF STREAMERS
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. OVER THE VI/EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS
IS TO RESULT IN LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BRIEF SHOWERS...WITH
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS TO LIMIT TO EL YUNQUE...CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY FAVOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...IT WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO IMPEDE THE SEA/LAND BREEZE
CYCLE TO ESTABLISH OVER THE LARGER ISLANDS.

CRAIG...TTMS (TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO)
NANDA...MDS (SURINAME)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 270808
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
307 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 27 2015 - 12Z SUN MAR 01 2015

...HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO NEAR 40 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FROM THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY EVENING.  TEMPERATURES
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IN ADDITION, A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TO THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY.  THE ENERGY
WILL TRIGGER COASTAL RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY.

MEANWHILE, CIRCULATION AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AID
IN PRODUCING UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH WILL AID IN PRODUCING SNOW OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
MORNING.  AS THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL PULL MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  AS THE MOISTURE MOVES
FARTHER INLAND, THE SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY.  RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY.  IN BETWEEN THE AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW, A REGION OF
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  ELSEWHERE, THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.


ZIEGENFELDER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 270808
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
307 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 27 2015 - 12Z SUN MAR 01 2015

...HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO NEAR 40 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FROM THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY EVENING.  TEMPERATURES
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IN ADDITION, A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TO THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY.  THE ENERGY
WILL TRIGGER COASTAL RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY.

MEANWHILE, CIRCULATION AROUND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AID
IN PRODUCING UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH WILL AID IN PRODUCING SNOW OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
MORNING.  AS THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL PULL MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  AS THE MOISTURE MOVES
FARTHER INLAND, THE SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY.  RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY.  IN BETWEEN THE AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW, A REGION OF
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  ELSEWHERE, THERE WILL BE AREAS
OF RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.


ZIEGENFELDER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 270719
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
218 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

VALID 12Z MON MAR 02 2015 - 12Z FRI MAR 06 2015

...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST SPREAD HAS OVERALL
DECREASED WITH THE LATEST COUPLE RUN CYCLES...BOLSTERING OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS A REASONABLY SIMILAR
MID-LARGER SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION...BUT BY NATURE THE MODELS
OFFER UNCERTAIN EMBEDDED SYSTEM TIMING DIFFERENCES AND LARGER RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES THAN ENSEMBLE MEANS.

ACCORDINGLY...THE WPC MEDIUM-RANGE PRODUCT SUITE HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE REASONABLY COMPATABLE 06 UTC
GEFS MEAN AND 00 UTC NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. HEAVIER WEIGHTING
WAS PLACED ON ECMWF ENSEMBLES IN THIS BLEND FOR AN OVERALL
SOLUTION SLIGHTLY ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED/LESS PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF
THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THIS TAKES
INTO ACCOUNT THE HIGH AMPLITUDE OF THE UPSTREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL
ERN PACIFIC TO ALASKAN RIDGE THAT IS COMMONLY SUPPORTED.

...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DUG INTO THE
NERN US LIFTS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MON/TUE. COOLING SURFACE
BASED HIGH PRESSURE SINKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL THEN ERN US IN THE
WAKE OF A LEAD AND PCPN FOCUSING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

UPSTREAM...AN AMPLIFIED SRN STREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MON/TUE
OVER THE SWRN US WILL FOCUS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER PCPN THREAT WITH
HEAVIER SNOWS ALSO WORKING INTO THE S-CENTRAL ROCKIES AS AIDED BY
UPSLOPE FETCH...LINGERING MIDWEEK.

MEANWHILE...SIGNIFICANT NRN STREAM IMPULSE DIGGING IS EXPECTED
OVERTOP THROUGH WRN CANADA TO THE LEE OF THE AMPLIFIED ERN
PACIFIC/ALASKAN RIDGE. THIS TROUGHING FEEDS INTO THE N-CENTRAL US
AND UNCERTAIN EXTENT OF SUBSEQUENT PHASING WITH SRN STREAM
ENERGIES LEADS INTO AN OVERALL TRANSLATION OF A MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL THEN NERN STATES MID-LATER NEXT WEEK. COLD NRN STREAM
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS ACROSS THE WRN THEN CENTRAL US DURING THIS
PERIOD...EVENTUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN US. A LEAD
AND WAVY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING ENEWD OUT
FROM THE SWRN US WILL ACT TO POOL MOISTURE AND FOCUS A POTENTIALLY
LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER PCPN MON-WED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
THEN ERN US IN ADVANCE AND WRAPPING BACK INTO THE TRAILING MAIN
ARCTIC AIRMASS. THIS OFFERS YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER PCPN
THREAT ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE OVERALL PCPN SHIELD AND HEAVY
WARM SECTOR RAINS WITH INCREASED GULF INFLOW.

SCHICHTEL

$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 270719
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
218 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

VALID 12Z MON MAR 02 2015 - 12Z FRI MAR 06 2015

...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST SPREAD HAS OVERALL
DECREASED WITH THE LATEST COUPLE RUN CYCLES...BOLSTERING OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS A REASONABLY SIMILAR
MID-LARGER SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION...BUT BY NATURE THE MODELS
OFFER UNCERTAIN EMBEDDED SYSTEM TIMING DIFFERENCES AND LARGER RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES THAN ENSEMBLE MEANS.

ACCORDINGLY...THE WPC MEDIUM-RANGE PRODUCT SUITE HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE REASONABLY COMPATABLE 06 UTC
GEFS MEAN AND 00 UTC NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. HEAVIER WEIGHTING
WAS PLACED ON ECMWF ENSEMBLES IN THIS BLEND FOR AN OVERALL
SOLUTION SLIGHTLY ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED/LESS PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF
THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THIS TAKES
INTO ACCOUNT THE HIGH AMPLITUDE OF THE UPSTREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL
ERN PACIFIC TO ALASKAN RIDGE THAT IS COMMONLY SUPPORTED.

...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DUG INTO THE
NERN US LIFTS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MON/TUE. COOLING SURFACE
BASED HIGH PRESSURE SINKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL THEN ERN US IN THE
WAKE OF A LEAD AND PCPN FOCUSING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

UPSTREAM...AN AMPLIFIED SRN STREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MON/TUE
OVER THE SWRN US WILL FOCUS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER PCPN THREAT WITH
HEAVIER SNOWS ALSO WORKING INTO THE S-CENTRAL ROCKIES AS AIDED BY
UPSLOPE FETCH...LINGERING MIDWEEK.

MEANWHILE...SIGNIFICANT NRN STREAM IMPULSE DIGGING IS EXPECTED
OVERTOP THROUGH WRN CANADA TO THE LEE OF THE AMPLIFIED ERN
PACIFIC/ALASKAN RIDGE. THIS TROUGHING FEEDS INTO THE N-CENTRAL US
AND UNCERTAIN EXTENT OF SUBSEQUENT PHASING WITH SRN STREAM
ENERGIES LEADS INTO AN OVERALL TRANSLATION OF A MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL THEN NERN STATES MID-LATER NEXT WEEK. COLD NRN STREAM
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS ACROSS THE WRN THEN CENTRAL US DURING THIS
PERIOD...EVENTUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN US. A LEAD
AND WAVY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING ENEWD OUT
FROM THE SWRN US WILL ACT TO POOL MOISTURE AND FOCUS A POTENTIALLY
LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER PCPN MON-WED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
THEN ERN US IN ADVANCE AND WRAPPING BACK INTO THE TRAILING MAIN
ARCTIC AIRMASS. THIS OFFERS YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER PCPN
THREAT ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE OVERALL PCPN SHIELD AND HEAVY
WARM SECTOR RAINS WITH INCREASED GULF INFLOW.

SCHICHTEL

$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 270719
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
218 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

VALID 12Z MON MAR 02 2015 - 12Z FRI MAR 06 2015

...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST SPREAD HAS OVERALL
DECREASED WITH THE LATEST COUPLE RUN CYCLES...BOLSTERING OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS A REASONABLY SIMILAR
MID-LARGER SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION...BUT BY NATURE THE MODELS
OFFER UNCERTAIN EMBEDDED SYSTEM TIMING DIFFERENCES AND LARGER RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES THAN ENSEMBLE MEANS.

ACCORDINGLY...THE WPC MEDIUM-RANGE PRODUCT SUITE HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE REASONABLY COMPATABLE 06 UTC
GEFS MEAN AND 00 UTC NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. HEAVIER WEIGHTING
WAS PLACED ON ECMWF ENSEMBLES IN THIS BLEND FOR AN OVERALL
SOLUTION SLIGHTLY ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED/LESS PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF
THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THIS TAKES
INTO ACCOUNT THE HIGH AMPLITUDE OF THE UPSTREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL
ERN PACIFIC TO ALASKAN RIDGE THAT IS COMMONLY SUPPORTED.

...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DUG INTO THE
NERN US LIFTS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MON/TUE. COOLING SURFACE
BASED HIGH PRESSURE SINKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL THEN ERN US IN THE
WAKE OF A LEAD AND PCPN FOCUSING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

UPSTREAM...AN AMPLIFIED SRN STREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MON/TUE
OVER THE SWRN US WILL FOCUS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER PCPN THREAT WITH
HEAVIER SNOWS ALSO WORKING INTO THE S-CENTRAL ROCKIES AS AIDED BY
UPSLOPE FETCH...LINGERING MIDWEEK.

MEANWHILE...SIGNIFICANT NRN STREAM IMPULSE DIGGING IS EXPECTED
OVERTOP THROUGH WRN CANADA TO THE LEE OF THE AMPLIFIED ERN
PACIFIC/ALASKAN RIDGE. THIS TROUGHING FEEDS INTO THE N-CENTRAL US
AND UNCERTAIN EXTENT OF SUBSEQUENT PHASING WITH SRN STREAM
ENERGIES LEADS INTO AN OVERALL TRANSLATION OF A MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL THEN NERN STATES MID-LATER NEXT WEEK. COLD NRN STREAM
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS ACROSS THE WRN THEN CENTRAL US DURING THIS
PERIOD...EVENTUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN US. A LEAD
AND WAVY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING ENEWD OUT
FROM THE SWRN US WILL ACT TO POOL MOISTURE AND FOCUS A POTENTIALLY
LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER PCPN MON-WED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
THEN ERN US IN ADVANCE AND WRAPPING BACK INTO THE TRAILING MAIN
ARCTIC AIRMASS. THIS OFFERS YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER PCPN
THREAT ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE OVERALL PCPN SHIELD AND HEAVY
WARM SECTOR RAINS WITH INCREASED GULF INFLOW.

SCHICHTEL

$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 270719
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
218 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

VALID 12Z MON MAR 02 2015 - 12Z FRI MAR 06 2015

...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST SPREAD HAS OVERALL
DECREASED WITH THE LATEST COUPLE RUN CYCLES...BOLSTERING OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS A REASONABLY SIMILAR
MID-LARGER SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION...BUT BY NATURE THE MODELS
OFFER UNCERTAIN EMBEDDED SYSTEM TIMING DIFFERENCES AND LARGER RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES THAN ENSEMBLE MEANS.

ACCORDINGLY...THE WPC MEDIUM-RANGE PRODUCT SUITE HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE REASONABLY COMPATABLE 06 UTC
GEFS MEAN AND 00 UTC NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. HEAVIER WEIGHTING
WAS PLACED ON ECMWF ENSEMBLES IN THIS BLEND FOR AN OVERALL
SOLUTION SLIGHTLY ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED/LESS PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF
THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THIS TAKES
INTO ACCOUNT THE HIGH AMPLITUDE OF THE UPSTREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL
ERN PACIFIC TO ALASKAN RIDGE THAT IS COMMONLY SUPPORTED.

...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DUG INTO THE
NERN US LIFTS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MON/TUE. COOLING SURFACE
BASED HIGH PRESSURE SINKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL THEN ERN US IN THE
WAKE OF A LEAD AND PCPN FOCUSING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

UPSTREAM...AN AMPLIFIED SRN STREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MON/TUE
OVER THE SWRN US WILL FOCUS A SIGNIFICANT WINTER PCPN THREAT WITH
HEAVIER SNOWS ALSO WORKING INTO THE S-CENTRAL ROCKIES AS AIDED BY
UPSLOPE FETCH...LINGERING MIDWEEK.

MEANWHILE...SIGNIFICANT NRN STREAM IMPULSE DIGGING IS EXPECTED
OVERTOP THROUGH WRN CANADA TO THE LEE OF THE AMPLIFIED ERN
PACIFIC/ALASKAN RIDGE. THIS TROUGHING FEEDS INTO THE N-CENTRAL US
AND UNCERTAIN EXTENT OF SUBSEQUENT PHASING WITH SRN STREAM
ENERGIES LEADS INTO AN OVERALL TRANSLATION OF A MEAN TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL THEN NERN STATES MID-LATER NEXT WEEK. COLD NRN STREAM
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS ACROSS THE WRN THEN CENTRAL US DURING THIS
PERIOD...EVENTUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN US. A LEAD
AND WAVY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PIECES OF ENERGY EJECTING ENEWD OUT
FROM THE SWRN US WILL ACT TO POOL MOISTURE AND FOCUS A POTENTIALLY
LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER PCPN MON-WED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
THEN ERN US IN ADVANCE AND WRAPPING BACK INTO THE TRAILING MAIN
ARCTIC AIRMASS. THIS OFFERS YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER PCPN
THREAT ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE OVERALL PCPN SHIELD AND HEAVY
WARM SECTOR RAINS WITH INCREASED GULF INFLOW.

SCHICHTEL

$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 270700
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

VALID 12Z MON MAR 02 2015 - 12Z FRI MAR 06 2015

...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST SPREAD HAS OVERALL
DECREASED WITH THE LATEST COUPLE RUN CYCLES...BOLSTERING OVERALL
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS A REASONABLY SIMILAR
MID-LARGER SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION...BUT BY NATURE THE MODELS
OFFER UNCERTAIN EMBEDDED SYSTEM TIMING DIFFERENCES AND LARGER RUN
TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES THAN ENSEMBLE MEANS.

ACCORDINGLY...THE WPC MEDIUM-RANGE PRODUCT SUITE HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE REASONABLY COMPATABLE 06 UTC
GEFS MEAN AND 00 UTC NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. HEAVIER WEIGHTING
WAS PLACED ON ECMWF ENSEMBLES IN THIS BLEND FOR AN OVERALL
SOLUTION SLIGHTLY ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED/LESS PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF
THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS ACROSS THE LOWER 48. THIS TAKES
INTO ACCOUNT THE HIGH AMPLITUDE OF THE UPSTREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL
ERN PACIFIC TO ALASKAN RIDGE THAT IS COMMONLY SUPPORTED.

...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DUG INTO THE
NERN US LIFTS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MON/TUE. COOLING SURFACE
BASED HIGH PRESSURE SINKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL THEN ERN US IN THE
WAKE OF A LEAD AND PCPN FOCUSING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

UPSTREAM...AN AMPLIFIED SRN STREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MON/TUE
OVER THE SWRN US WILL FOCUS WIDESPREAD WINTER PCPN WITH HEAVIER
SNOWS ALSO WORKING INTO THE S-CENTRAL ROCKIES AS AIDED BY UPSLOPE
FETCH.

MEANWHILE...SIGNIFICANT NRN STREAM IMPULSE DIGGING IS EXPECTED
OVERTOP THROUGH WRN CANADA TO THE LEE OF THE AMPLIFIED ERN
PACIFIC/ALASKAN RIDGE. THIS TROUGHING FEEDS INTO THE N-CENTRAL US
AND SUBSEQUENT PHASING LEADS INTO THE TRANSLATION OF THE MEAN
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL THEN NERN STATES MID-LATER NEXT WEEK.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SINKS ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL US DURING THIS
PERIOD AND A LEAD WAVY FRONTS FOCUSES PCPN.

SCHICHTEL

$$






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