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000
FXUS01 KWBC 240751
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VALID 12Z THU JUL 24 2014 - 12Z SAT JUL 26 2014

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING.
 MOISTURE WILL BE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AIR OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY EVENING.  IN ADDITION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE U. S./CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY
MORNING.  BY FRIDAY EVENING, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXPAND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT TO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI
VALLEY.  ADDITIONALLY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
THURSDAY MORNING.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY EVENING.

ELSEWHERE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF TEXAS AND THE GULF
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.  FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.


ZIEGENFELDER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 240751
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VALID 12Z THU JUL 24 2014 - 12Z SAT JUL 26 2014

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING.
 MOISTURE WILL BE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AIR OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY EVENING.  IN ADDITION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE U. S./CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY
MORNING.  BY FRIDAY EVENING, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXPAND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT TO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI
VALLEY.  ADDITIONALLY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
THURSDAY MORNING.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY EVENING.

ELSEWHERE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF TEXAS AND THE GULF
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.  FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.


ZIEGENFELDER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 240643
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VALID 12Z SUN JUL 27 2014 - 12Z THU JUL 31 2014

...OVERVIEW AND MODEL GUIDANCE...

IN MOST RESPECTS MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS SETTLED INTO BETTER
THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY AS THE PATTERN BECOMES
DOMINATED BY A LARGE SCALE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN
TROUGH.  WHAT DIFFS REMAIN ARE RELATIVELY SMALL IN SCALE LEADING
TO PREFS TOWARD MAINTAINING A GENERAL BLEND OF LATEST
MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLNS... IN THIS CASE THE 18Z GFS/GEFS MEAN
AND 12Z ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN.  THE RESULTING BLEND LEANS MORE TOWARD
THE MEANS WITH GRTLKS TO ERN CANADA LOW PRESSURE AS THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS WITH THE SFC LOW AFTER SUN AND THE GFS
COULD RUN A TAD FAST BY TUE.  THE NEW 00Z GFS/UKMET/CMC REMAIN
FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF TO VARYING DEGREES.

WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING ERN TROUGH THE MDLS/ENSMEANS STILL INDICATE
THAT MID LVL HGTS SHOULD REACH UP TO AT LEAST 2.5-3.O STDEVS BELOW
NORMAL... WITH THE CORE OF LOWEST ANOMALIES TRACKING FROM THE
GRTLKS/OH VLY INTO THE CNTRL APLCHNS EARLY-MID PERIOD BEFORE
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AND DRIFTING S/SW THEREAFTER AS THE SRN PART OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY BUT THE NRN-CNTRL PART BEGINS TO
FILL.  THE OVERALL TROUGH AXIS MAY RETROGRADE A LITTLE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS A WRN ATLC RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE ERN CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  MEANWHILE HGTS MAY REACH 2.0-2.5 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE SRN PART OF THE SRN ROCKIES/SOUTHWEST UPR HIGH.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

AHEAD OF THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE
CNTRL-ERN STATES... GRTLKS/ERN CANADA LOW PRESSURE AND TRAILING
FRONT WILL BRING AREAS OF RNFL/TSTMS TO THE ERN STATES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  BY MIDWEEK THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOC RNFL SHOULD SETTLE
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AND NEAR THE GULF COAST THEN BACK THROUGH
THE SRN PLAINS.  POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW TO
ENHANCE RNFL OVER PARTS OF CO/NM WHILE ONE OR MORE IMPULSES ALOFT
IN NWLY FLOW MAY PROVIDE ADDED FOCUS FOR ONE OR MORE AREAS OF
LOCALLY HVY CONVECTION EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS.
COOLEST MAX TEMP ANOMALIES OF 10-15F BELOW NORMAL ARE MOST LIKELY
TO EXTEND FROM THE NRN TIER INTO THE APLCHNS SUN-TUE WITH PSBL
CLOUDS/RNFL KEEPING DAYTIME READINGS BELOW NORMAL TO A SIMILAR
EXTENT OVER THE S-CNTRL PLAINS BY TUE-THU.  MIN TEMPS MAY REACH AS
LOW AS 10F OR SO BELOW NORMAL ONE OR MORE DAYS OVER THE OH VLY/TN
VLY/APLCHNS TUE-THU.  ON THE OTHER HAND EXPECT MOST AREAS OVER THE
WEST TO SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH LOCALIZED MAX ANOMALIES UP TO
PLUS 10F OR SO OVER THE NORTHWEST AND PSBLY BROADER COVERAGE OF
SIMILAR ANOMALIES FOR MINS.  SHRTWV ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN SWLY
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE WRN RIDGE AND A NERN PAC TROUGH MAY
GENERATE ONE OR MORE EPISODES OF SCT CONVECTION.

RAUSCH

$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 240643
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

VALID 12Z SUN JUL 27 2014 - 12Z THU JUL 31 2014

...OVERVIEW AND MODEL GUIDANCE...

IN MOST RESPECTS MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS SETTLED INTO BETTER
THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY AS THE PATTERN BECOMES
DOMINATED BY A LARGE SCALE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN
TROUGH.  WHAT DIFFS REMAIN ARE RELATIVELY SMALL IN SCALE LEADING
TO PREFS TOWARD MAINTAINING A GENERAL BLEND OF LATEST
MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLNS... IN THIS CASE THE 18Z GFS/GEFS MEAN
AND 12Z ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN.  THE RESULTING BLEND LEANS MORE TOWARD
THE MEANS WITH GRTLKS TO ERN CANADA LOW PRESSURE AS THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS WITH THE SFC LOW AFTER SUN AND THE GFS
COULD RUN A TAD FAST BY TUE.  THE NEW 00Z GFS/UKMET/CMC REMAIN
FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF TO VARYING DEGREES.

WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING ERN TROUGH THE MDLS/ENSMEANS STILL INDICATE
THAT MID LVL HGTS SHOULD REACH UP TO AT LEAST 2.5-3.O STDEVS BELOW
NORMAL... WITH THE CORE OF LOWEST ANOMALIES TRACKING FROM THE
GRTLKS/OH VLY INTO THE CNTRL APLCHNS EARLY-MID PERIOD BEFORE
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AND DRIFTING S/SW THEREAFTER AS THE SRN PART OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY BUT THE NRN-CNTRL PART BEGINS TO
FILL.  THE OVERALL TROUGH AXIS MAY RETROGRADE A LITTLE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS A WRN ATLC RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE ERN CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  MEANWHILE HGTS MAY REACH 2.0-2.5 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE SRN PART OF THE SRN ROCKIES/SOUTHWEST UPR HIGH.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

AHEAD OF THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE
CNTRL-ERN STATES... GRTLKS/ERN CANADA LOW PRESSURE AND TRAILING
FRONT WILL BRING AREAS OF RNFL/TSTMS TO THE ERN STATES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  BY MIDWEEK THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOC RNFL SHOULD SETTLE
JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AND NEAR THE GULF COAST THEN BACK THROUGH
THE SRN PLAINS.  POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW TO
ENHANCE RNFL OVER PARTS OF CO/NM WHILE ONE OR MORE IMPULSES ALOFT
IN NWLY FLOW MAY PROVIDE ADDED FOCUS FOR ONE OR MORE AREAS OF
LOCALLY HVY CONVECTION EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS.
COOLEST MAX TEMP ANOMALIES OF 10-15F BELOW NORMAL ARE MOST LIKELY
TO EXTEND FROM THE NRN TIER INTO THE APLCHNS SUN-TUE WITH PSBL
CLOUDS/RNFL KEEPING DAYTIME READINGS BELOW NORMAL TO A SIMILAR
EXTENT OVER THE S-CNTRL PLAINS BY TUE-THU.  MIN TEMPS MAY REACH AS
LOW AS 10F OR SO BELOW NORMAL ONE OR MORE DAYS OVER THE OH VLY/TN
VLY/APLCHNS TUE-THU.  ON THE OTHER HAND EXPECT MOST AREAS OVER THE
WEST TO SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WITH LOCALIZED MAX ANOMALIES UP TO
PLUS 10F OR SO OVER THE NORTHWEST AND PSBLY BROADER COVERAGE OF
SIMILAR ANOMALIES FOR MINS.  SHRTWV ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN SWLY
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE WRN RIDGE AND A NERN PAC TROUGH MAY
GENERATE ONE OR MORE EPISODES OF SCT CONVECTION.

RAUSCH

$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 232013
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
412 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

VALID 00Z THU JUL 24 2014 - 00Z SAT JUL 26 2014

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
PLAINS/NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...

...COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHEAST/GREAT LAKES AND HOT FOR MUCH
OF THE PLAINS...

A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
MORE CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT
IN THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST AND THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES,
NORTHEAST, AND MID ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND CLOUDS ALONG THE
FRONT STUNT DIURNAL HEATING.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST U.S. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A STRONG JET AND
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT FOR
MORE ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR NEAR 100 FROM TEXAS
TO MONTANA BEFORE A COLD FRONT COOLS THINGS OFF IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.


KREKELER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 232013
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
412 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

VALID 00Z THU JUL 24 2014 - 00Z SAT JUL 26 2014

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN
PLAINS/NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...

...COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHEAST/GREAT LAKES AND HOT FOR MUCH
OF THE PLAINS...

A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
MORE CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED LIFT
IN THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST AND THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES,
NORTHEAST, AND MID ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND CLOUDS ALONG THE
FRONT STUNT DIURNAL HEATING.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST U.S. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A STRONG JET AND
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT FOR
MORE ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR NEAR 100 FROM TEXAS
TO MONTANA BEFORE A COLD FRONT COOLS THINGS OFF IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.


KREKELER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS06 KWBC 231905
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JULY 23 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 29 - AUG 02, 2014

TODAY`S MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE FORECAST
CIRCULATION OVER NORTH AMERICA. CONFIDENCE ALSO REMAINS HIGH AS THE VARIOUS
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHAT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
IMPRESSIVELY COOL SUMMER PERIOD OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. TODAY`S OFFICIAL
500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY`S, THOUGH THERE IS A SUBTLE RETROGRESSION OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE
FEATURES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FAVORS ANOMALOUS
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THE
EXTENT OF PROBABILITIES FAVORING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EVEN HIGHER THAN
IN YESTERDAY`S OUTLOOK, WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR MASS FORECAST TO SETTLE
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. ANOMALOUS RIDGING COMBINED WITH ANOMALOUS OFFSHORE
WINDS STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS.
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN NORTHEASTERN ALASKA WHERE HIGH PRESSURE AND
ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE FORECAST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS REGION EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGION WHERE SURFACE
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD TURNING WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BE A
FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS FAVORS NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE AGAIN
THE HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST, WHERE THE STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOCUS
PRECIPITATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR WESTERN ALASKA DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS EAST
OF THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20
PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF
TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8.

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY`S 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY`S MODELS AND TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 31 - AUG 06, 2014

THE FORECAST CIRCULATION FOR WEEK-2 IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, THOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED. THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST SLIGHTLY FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS SIMILAR TO THAT IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THOUGH
PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE SHIFTED SOUTH AS HIGHER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. UNCERTAINTY IS SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE
NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FORECAST A RESULT OF LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 60
PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS, OFFSET BY THE FACT THAT THE
PATTERN IS PREDICTED TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED THAN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.

FORECASTER: STEPHEN BAXTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19810731 - 20010731 - 19670720 - 19820720 - 20050717


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19670720 - 20010731 - 19820720 - 19810730 - 20050716


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 29 - AUG 02, 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     N    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    N    B     S DAKOTA    B    B
NEBRASKA    B    B     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B
ARKANSAS    B    N     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   B    B
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    B    B
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    N     NEW YORK    B    N
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    B    N
N CAROLINA  B    N     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     B    A
FL PNHDL    B    A     FL PENIN    N    A     AK N SLOPE  B    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    N    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 31 - AUG 06, 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    B     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     N    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    B    N
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    N    B
NEBRASKA    B    B     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    N
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       A    B
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    A
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     B    A
FL PNHDL    B    A     FL PENIN    N    A     AK N SLOPE  N    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$






000
FXUS06 KWBC 231905
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JULY 23 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 29 - AUG 02, 2014

TODAY`S MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE FORECAST
CIRCULATION OVER NORTH AMERICA. CONFIDENCE ALSO REMAINS HIGH AS THE VARIOUS
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHAT SHOULD BE ANOTHER
IMPRESSIVELY COOL SUMMER PERIOD OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. TODAY`S OFFICIAL
500-HPA HEIGHT MANUAL BLEND FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY`S, THOUGH THERE IS A SUBTLE RETROGRESSION OF THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE
FEATURES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FAVORS ANOMALOUS
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THE
EXTENT OF PROBABILITIES FAVORING BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EVEN HIGHER THAN
IN YESTERDAY`S OUTLOOK, WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIR MASS FORECAST TO SETTLE
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. ANOMALOUS RIDGING COMBINED WITH ANOMALOUS OFFSHORE
WINDS STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS.
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
ALEUTIANS, SOUTHERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN NORTHEASTERN ALASKA WHERE HIGH PRESSURE AND
ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE FORECAST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS REGION EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGION WHERE SURFACE
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD TURNING WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BE A
FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS FAVORS NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE AGAIN
THE HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST, WHERE THE STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL FOCUS
PRECIPITATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR WESTERN ALASKA DUE TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS EAST
OF THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20
PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 40 PERCENT OF
TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8.

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY`S 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY`S MODELS AND TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 31 - AUG 06, 2014

THE FORECAST CIRCULATION FOR WEEK-2 IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD, THOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS AMPLIFIED. THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WEST SLIGHTLY FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS SIMILAR TO THAT IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THOUGH
PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE SHIFTED SOUTH AS HIGHER HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. UNCERTAINTY IS SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS COMPARED TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE
NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FORECAST A RESULT OF LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 60
PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS, OFFSET BY THE FACT THAT THE
PATTERN IS PREDICTED TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED THAN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.

FORECASTER: STEPHEN BAXTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 21

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19810731 - 20010731 - 19670720 - 19820720 - 20050717


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19670720 - 20010731 - 19820720 - 19810730 - 20050716


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 29 - AUG 02, 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     N    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    N    B     S DAKOTA    B    B
NEBRASKA    B    B     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B
ARKANSAS    B    N     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   B    B
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    N     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    B    B
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    N     NEW YORK    B    N
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    B    N
N CAROLINA  B    N     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     B    A
FL PNHDL    B    A     FL PENIN    N    A     AK N SLOPE  B    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    N    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 31 - AUG 06, 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    B     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     N    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    B    N
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    N    B
NEBRASKA    B    B     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    N
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       A    B
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    A
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     B    A
FL PNHDL    B    A     FL PENIN    N    A     AK N SLOPE  N    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$





000
FXCA20 KWBC 231827
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
226 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

DISCUSSION FROM JULY 23/00UTC: WEST OVER THE DOMAIN...BROAD CELL
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST USA TO THE
NORTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. AT 250 HPA IT IS TO ANCHOR ON A CLOSED
HIGH OVER ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWEST USA. AN ELONGATED
TROUGH LIES TO THE EAST...WITH AXIS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
USA-WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO A LOW OVER NAYARIT/COLIMA IN
SOUTHWEST MEXICO. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH THE
LOW IS TO SPLIT FROM MAIN TROUGH AXIS. EARLY IN THE CYCLE IT IS TO
MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...BUT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE
INFLOW OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND COLD AIR ALOFT IS TO ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MEXICO. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO SUSTAIN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION...WITH
MOST ACTIVE EXPECTED BETWEEN NAYARIT/COLIMA AND GUERRERO/OAXACA
LATER ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ACTIVITY THEN SPREADS NORTH
INTO SINALOA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE ALOFT...AS IT
MEANDERS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...IS TO VENT DIURNAL CONVECTION
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL OF MEXICO...TO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING THIS INCREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM AS THE
TUTT LOW LIFTS ALONG THE COAST.

ALSO AT UPPER LEVELS...ANOTHER RIDGE LIES OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC/NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WHILE CENTERING ON A CLOSED HIGH
NEAR 30N 70W. THIS IS TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN STARTS TO ERODE LATER ON FRIDAY AS A POLAR TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN USA. THE RIDGE
ALOFT...MEANWHILE...WILL PROVIDE THE STEERING FLOW TO A TUTT OVER
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THE LOW CENTERS OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...AND THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON IT IS TO LIFT ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA PENINSULA
LATER ON FRIDAY. EARLY IN THE CYCLE...AS THE TUTT MEANDERS OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLES...IT IS TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
OVER CENTRAL-WESTERN CUBA THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AND
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM ON THURSDAY TO EARLY FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW REMAINS NORTH OF THE
VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLES...IT IS HAVING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. TUTT IS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH DAY 04. AT LOW LEVELS...BROAD
RIDGE DOMINATES FLOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
THIS RIDGE FAVORS A TIGHT GRADIENT AND STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH 850-800 HPA WINDS PEAKING BETWEEN
35-45KT OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE A TRADE WINDS CAP PERSISTS ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS...AN UNFAVORABLE MJO
CONDITIONS...GENERALLY FAVORS A DRYING TREND ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THIS PATTERN WE ARE NOW
FORECASTING LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
56W     59W    64W    68W    71W    75W    78W    81W     TW
68W     72W    76W    78W    81W    83W    85W    88W     TW
87W     91W    95W    99W   102W   105W   108W   111W     TW

TD-TWO WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W. THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON IT IS TO ENTER BARBADOS-THE FRENCH/LEEWARD ISLES...WHERE
IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-30MM. THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLES TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM EARLY ON FRIDAY. OVER THE GUIANAS-NORTHEAST
VENEZUELA THIS IS TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON CONVECTION. BUT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN VENEZUELA THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION...WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. OVER
JAMAICA-EASTERN CUBA IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM LATER ON FRIDAY...SIMILARLY
ACROSS COLOMBIA TO THE DARIEN IN PANAMA.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED ALONG 68W. AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN VENEZUELA TO COLOMBIA IT IS TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ACROSS PANAMA TO COSTA RICA/SOUTHERN NICARAGUA IT IS TO INTERACT
WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ IN SUPPORT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
WITH ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AT IT PULLS ACROSS
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS NOW EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ITCZ. OVER GUATEMALA-CHIAPAS MEXICO WE NOW EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. OVER
GUERRERO-CENTRAL MEXICO IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

FIGUEROA...MARN (EL SALVADOR)
VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 231827
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
226 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

DISCUSSION FROM JULY 23/00UTC: WEST OVER THE DOMAIN...BROAD CELL
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST USA TO THE
NORTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. AT 250 HPA IT IS TO ANCHOR ON A CLOSED
HIGH OVER ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWEST USA. AN ELONGATED
TROUGH LIES TO THE EAST...WITH AXIS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
USA-WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO A LOW OVER NAYARIT/COLIMA IN
SOUTHWEST MEXICO. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH THE
LOW IS TO SPLIT FROM MAIN TROUGH AXIS. EARLY IN THE CYCLE IT IS TO
MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...BUT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE
INFLOW OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND COLD AIR ALOFT IS TO ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MEXICO. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO SUSTAIN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION...WITH
MOST ACTIVE EXPECTED BETWEEN NAYARIT/COLIMA AND GUERRERO/OAXACA
LATER ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ACTIVITY THEN SPREADS NORTH
INTO SINALOA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE ALOFT...AS IT
MEANDERS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...IS TO VENT DIURNAL CONVECTION
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL OF MEXICO...TO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING THIS INCREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM AS THE
TUTT LOW LIFTS ALONG THE COAST.

ALSO AT UPPER LEVELS...ANOTHER RIDGE LIES OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC/NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WHILE CENTERING ON A CLOSED HIGH
NEAR 30N 70W. THIS IS TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN STARTS TO ERODE LATER ON FRIDAY AS A POLAR TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN USA. THE RIDGE
ALOFT...MEANWHILE...WILL PROVIDE THE STEERING FLOW TO A TUTT OVER
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THE LOW CENTERS OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...AND THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON IT IS TO LIFT ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA PENINSULA
LATER ON FRIDAY. EARLY IN THE CYCLE...AS THE TUTT MEANDERS OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLES...IT IS TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
OVER CENTRAL-WESTERN CUBA THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AND
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM ON THURSDAY TO EARLY FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW REMAINS NORTH OF THE
VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLES...IT IS HAVING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. TUTT IS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH DAY 04. AT LOW LEVELS...BROAD
RIDGE DOMINATES FLOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
THIS RIDGE FAVORS A TIGHT GRADIENT AND STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH 850-800 HPA WINDS PEAKING BETWEEN
35-45KT OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE A TRADE WINDS CAP PERSISTS ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS...AN UNFAVORABLE MJO
CONDITIONS...GENERALLY FAVORS A DRYING TREND ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THIS PATTERN WE ARE NOW
FORECASTING LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
56W     59W    64W    68W    71W    75W    78W    81W     TW
68W     72W    76W    78W    81W    83W    85W    88W     TW
87W     91W    95W    99W   102W   105W   108W   111W     TW

TD-TWO WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W. THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON IT IS TO ENTER BARBADOS-THE FRENCH/LEEWARD ISLES...WHERE
IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-30MM. THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLES TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC-HAITI IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM EARLY ON FRIDAY. OVER THE GUIANAS-NORTHEAST
VENEZUELA THIS IS TO HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON CONVECTION. BUT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN VENEZUELA THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION...WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. OVER
JAMAICA-EASTERN CUBA IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM LATER ON FRIDAY...SIMILARLY
ACROSS COLOMBIA TO THE DARIEN IN PANAMA.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED ALONG 68W. AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WESTERN VENEZUELA TO COLOMBIA IT IS TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ACROSS PANAMA TO COSTA RICA/SOUTHERN NICARAGUA IT IS TO INTERACT
WITH THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ IN SUPPORT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
WITH ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AT IT PULLS ACROSS
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS NOW EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN
PACIFIC ITCZ. OVER GUATEMALA-CHIAPAS MEXICO WE NOW EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. OVER
GUERRERO-CENTRAL MEXICO IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

FIGUEROA...MARN (EL SALVADOR)
VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXSA20 KWBC 231658
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1258 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

MODEL DISCUSSION (VALID FROM 23 JULY 00UTC): THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PROVIDING SUPPORT TO THE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH. SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS
A MID LATITUDE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE CONTINENT EARLY IN THE
CYCLE. UNDER FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS THIS WILL SUSTAIN
ORGANIZED/POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.

AT 500 HPA...A TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENVELOPS THE DRAKE
PASSAGE/SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH AMERICA. UPSTREAM FROM THIS
AXIS...A NORTH-TO-SOUTH RIDGE IS TO EXTEND ALONG 90W TO 70S. UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST SHORT WAVE VORTICES ARE TO LIFT
ACROSS THE BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
TROUGH...STREAMING ACROSS PATAGONIA TO LA PAMPA/BUENOS AIRES
PROVINCE IN ARGENTINA. IN THIS PATTERN A STRONG VORTEX MOVES OFF
THE COAST OF ARGENTINA EARLY IN THE CYCLE. ANOTHER IS TO THEN
ENTER TIERRA DEL FUEGO BY 30-36 HRS...THEN NORTH ALONG THE COAST
OF PATAGONIA THROUGH 48-54 HRS...DEEPENING OVER THE BUENOS AIRES
PROVINCE/RIO DE LA PLATA BASIN BY 60-72 HRS. IN A DEEP LAYER COLD
ADVECTIVE PATTERN...INFLOW OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM THE SOUTH
WILL HELP SUSTAIN SCATTERED SNOWFALL ACROSS TIERRA DEL
FUEGO/SOUTHERN PATAGONIA IN ARGENTINA...WITH ACCUMULATION OF
10-15CMM EXPECTED THROUGH 36 HRS. THIS IS TO THEN FAVOR SCATTERED
SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE/SIERRA DE LA
VENTANA-TANDIL BY 48-72 HRS. LIGHT SNOW/SLEET IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF BUENOS AIRES TO SOUTHERN URUGUAY BY 66-84 HRS. AS THE
POLAR RIDGE BUILDS INLAND ACROSS PATAGONIA...BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE TO ENVELOP SOUTHERN-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ARGENTINA.

A MID LATITUDE TROUGH ON THE NORTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST TO SPILL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ANDES OF CHILE EARLY IN THE CYCLE...
MEANWHILE FOCUSING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS PARAGUAY-MESOPOTAMIA
VALLEY IN ARGENTINA TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF BRASIL. THE INFLOW
OF MID LEVEL COLD AIR WILL SUSTAIN HEIGHT FALLS OF 100-125GPM
ACROSS MID SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. AS THE TROUGH PULLS ACROSS
THE CONTINENT...A SUBTROPICAL/POLAR JET PAIR IS TO ACCOMPANY THIS
TROUGH...WITH JETS TO COUPLE ON THEIR CORRESPONDING DIVERGENT
REGIONS OVER MID SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THIS IS TO RESULT IN A
LARGE AREA OF DIVERGENCE THAT IS TO EXPAND FROM SOUTHERN BRASIL TO
PARAGUAY. THROUGH 48-60 HRS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
URUGUAY/SOUTHERN BRASIL. AS IT CLEARS THE COAST OF ARGENTINA IT IS
TO THEN MERGE WITH AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THESE ARE
TO THEN COMBINE INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THAT IS TO EXTEND BETWEEN 60W-30W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20S. AT LOW
LEVELS...THE TROUGH ALOFT SUSTAINS A POLAR FRONT ACROSS URUGUAY TO
THE NORTHWEST PROVINCES IN ARGENTINA. BUILDING POLAR RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH IS TO SUSTAIN A PAMPERO LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS ARGENTINA. THIS
WILL SUSTAIN A COLD ADVECTIVE PATTERN ACROSS MID SECTIONS OF SOUTH
AMERICA. IT IS TO ALSO  DISPLACE THE POLAR BOUNDARY NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN BRASIL-PARAGUAY TO MATO GROSSO IN BRASIL-CENTRAL BOLIVIA
EARLY IN THE CYCLE. THROUGH 48 HRS IT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS SAO
PAULO/MATO GROSSO/RONDONIA IN BRASIL TO NORTHERN BOLIVIA. IT IS TO
THEN STALL AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS AWAY. THE SURGING POLAR
BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
BRASIL-MESOPOTAMIA VALLEY IN ARGENTINA AND SOUTHEAST
PARAGUAY...WITH MAXIMA OF 100-150MM THROUGH 36 HRS. UNDER
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AND WEAK HELICITY EXPECTING LONG
LASTING/POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH RISK OF
LARGE HAIL STONES. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEAST
BRASIL THIS DECREASES TO 20-40MM...AND BY 60-96 HRS EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 20-35MM...WITH MOST ACTIVE EXPECTED ACROSS
ESPIRITO SANTO/RIO DE JANEIRO-MINAS GERAIS TO MATO GROSSO. STRONG
SOUTHERLY JET ACROSS PARAGUAY WILL SUSTAIN AN AREA OF HEAVY
CONVECTION ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT OVER BOLIVIA/SOUTHERN
PERU EARLY IN THE CYCLE...WITH RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 75-100MM
EXPECTED BY 36 HRS. AT 36-72 HRS FOCUS OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION
SHIFTS TO ACRE IN BRASIL-CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PERU WITH MAXIMA OF
35-70MM. BY 84-96 HRS THIS WILL DECREASE TO 20-35MM WHILE BUILDING
NORTH INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN PERU AND EASTERN ECUADOR.

SURGE IN CONVECTION ACROSS PERU/WESTERN BRASIL IS TO THEN INDUCE
THE BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST
SOUTH AMERICA. AT 200 HPA THE RIDGE IS TO ANCHOR ON A CLOSED HIGH
OVER NORTHERN AMAZONAS IN BRASIL-NORTHERN JUNGLE OF PERU. THIS
WILL VENT DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS AREA THROUGH DAY 04. ACTIVITY IS
TO THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER IN THE CYCLE. ACROSS NORTHEAST
BRASIL...MEANWHILE...A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE SOUTH ATLANTIC TO PERNAMBUCO/RIO GRANDE DO NORTE. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH BRISK TRADE WIND EASTERLIES IN SUPPORT OF SCATTERED
COASTAL CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS...WITH ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM IN SCATTERED CONVECTION.

FERNANDES...INMET (BRASIL)
JALFIN...SMN (ARGENTINA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 231506
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1106 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

VALID 12Z SAT JUL 26 2014 - 12Z WED JUL 30 2014

...OVERVIEW AND MODEL GUIDANCE...

THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AS A
LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO UNFOLD WITH AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH LOOKING QUITE
LIKELY.  DURING THIS PERIOD...500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES APPROACH 3
STDEVS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIANS WHILE
ACROSS THE WEST...STDEVS PEAK ABOUT 1.5 TO 2 ABOVE NORMAL. IN THE
EAST...THIS REPRESENTS ANOTHER UNUSUAL OUTBREAK OF RELATIVELY COOL
AIR DURING A MONTH THAT OFTEN FEATURES THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE YEAR.  HOWEVER...OUT WEST...A CONTINUING THREAT OF DROUGHT AS
WELL AS SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION INCREASING THE DANGER OF
FIRE WEATHER.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THIS RELATIVELY CONFIDENT FORECAST IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MESOSCALE DETAILS OF FRONTAL TIMING/LOCATION AND
ANY WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGES
OF COOL AIR IMPULSES.  FOR EXAMPLE...ON DAYS 3 AND 4/SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF COMPLEXITY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
FEATURES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MIDWEST INTO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS ONE PRIMARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES MORE
ORGANIZED BY DAY 5/MONDAY...THAT COMPLEXITY SEEMS TO DIMINISH AS
THE FRONT NEARS AND PASSES THE EAST COAST ON DAYS 6 AND 7/TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

LATER IN THE FORECAST...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS APPEAR TO DEVIATE
MORE FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE MEANS WITH THE LATEST 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
RUNNING SLOWER THAN THE MEANS.  AS A RESULT...HAVE USED A BLEND OF
ALL FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 TO HAVE SOME SORT OF INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION
BETWEEN THE MEANS AND THE OPERATIONAL RUNS.  WHILE THIS MOSTLY
AFFECTS THE LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OVER QUEBEC...IT
REALLY ONLY MEANS JUST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT AS IT NEARS AND CROSSES THE EAST COAST.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD SEWD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD... LEAVING MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION WITH BELOW AVERAGE READINGS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.  IN GENERAL...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT FARTHER
BELOW NORMAL THAN THE MINS THOUGH IN MOST CASES LIKELY NOT AS
EXTREME AS WITH THE PREVIOUS COOL AIR OUTBREAK...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MIDWEST.  AHEAD OF THIS COOLING TREND...ONE OR MORE SFC
LOWS/FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE
ERN THIRD OF THE NATION FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SETTLING TOWARD THE SE/GULF COAST THEREAFTER.  SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES
NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE TRAILING PART OF THE MAIN SFC FRONT MAY INCREASE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF COLORADO/NEW
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE FORECAST.  OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST... TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONLY SCATTERED
CONVECTION...INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR WILDFIRES.

KOCIN

$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 231506
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1106 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

VALID 12Z SAT JUL 26 2014 - 12Z WED JUL 30 2014

...OVERVIEW AND MODEL GUIDANCE...

THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AS A
LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO UNFOLD WITH AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH LOOKING QUITE
LIKELY.  DURING THIS PERIOD...500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES APPROACH 3
STDEVS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIANS WHILE
ACROSS THE WEST...STDEVS PEAK ABOUT 1.5 TO 2 ABOVE NORMAL. IN THE
EAST...THIS REPRESENTS ANOTHER UNUSUAL OUTBREAK OF RELATIVELY COOL
AIR DURING A MONTH THAT OFTEN FEATURES THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE YEAR.  HOWEVER...OUT WEST...A CONTINUING THREAT OF DROUGHT AS
WELL AS SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION INCREASING THE DANGER OF
FIRE WEATHER.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THIS RELATIVELY CONFIDENT FORECAST IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MESOSCALE DETAILS OF FRONTAL TIMING/LOCATION AND
ANY WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGES
OF COOL AIR IMPULSES.  FOR EXAMPLE...ON DAYS 3 AND 4/SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF COMPLEXITY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
FEATURES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MIDWEST INTO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS ONE PRIMARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMES MORE
ORGANIZED BY DAY 5/MONDAY...THAT COMPLEXITY SEEMS TO DIMINISH AS
THE FRONT NEARS AND PASSES THE EAST COAST ON DAYS 6 AND 7/TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

LATER IN THE FORECAST...THE OPERATIONAL RUNS APPEAR TO DEVIATE
MORE FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE MEANS WITH THE LATEST 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
RUNNING SLOWER THAN THE MEANS.  AS A RESULT...HAVE USED A BLEND OF
ALL FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 TO HAVE SOME SORT OF INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION
BETWEEN THE MEANS AND THE OPERATIONAL RUNS.  WHILE THIS MOSTLY
AFFECTS THE LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OVER QUEBEC...IT
REALLY ONLY MEANS JUST SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT AS IT NEARS AND CROSSES THE EAST COAST.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD SEWD FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EAST DURING THE PERIOD... LEAVING MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION WITH BELOW AVERAGE READINGS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.  IN GENERAL...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT FARTHER
BELOW NORMAL THAN THE MINS THOUGH IN MOST CASES LIKELY NOT AS
EXTREME AS WITH THE PREVIOUS COOL AIR OUTBREAK...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MIDWEST.  AHEAD OF THIS COOLING TREND...ONE OR MORE SFC
LOWS/FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE
ERN THIRD OF THE NATION FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
SETTLING TOWARD THE SE/GULF COAST THEREAFTER.  SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES
NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  MEANWHILE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE TRAILING PART OF THE MAIN SFC FRONT MAY INCREASE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF COLORADO/NEW
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE FORECAST.  OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST... TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH ONLY SCATTERED
CONVECTION...INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR WILDFIRES.

KOCIN

$$







000
FXSA20 KWBC 231340
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
940 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM 23 JULY 00UTC): AT 200 HPA A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE NOW EXTENDS OVER PARA/AMAZONAS IN BRASIL.  THIS IS VENTING
LATE AFTERNOON DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. SHALLOW CONVECTION...MEANWHILE...WAS CLUSTERING ACROSS
NORTHEAST COAST OF BRASIL AS ENHANCE BY A SHEAR LINE.

AT 250 HPA...THE SOUTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 64S
104W...ALONG 57S 88W...EXITING AT 49S 73W. IT REFORMS AT 42S
58W...ALONG 48S 50W...A 168KT MAXIMUM AT 50S 40W...46S 24W...A
126KT MAXIMUM AT 40S 20W...EXITING AT 37S 16W. THE NORTHERN POLAR
HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 32S 110W...ALONG 35S 107W...45S 103W...A 125KT
MAXIMUM AT 47S 90W...41S 83W...30S 78W...27S 69W...RIO DE LA
PLATA...42S 50W...A 125KT MAXIMUM AT 46S 40W...46S 30W...32S
19W...AND 29S 10W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 27S
88W...ALONG A 132KT MAXIMUM AT 25S 80W... NORTHERN CHILE...SANTA
CRUZ BOLIVIA...EXITING AT 17S 53W.

AT 500 HPA...A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXTENDS
SOUTH ALONG A CLOSED HIGH NEAR 18S 92W...30S 95W...50S 100W...TO
60S 120W. EAST OF THIS AXIS...TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM
EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS THE BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA TO SOUTHERN
CHILE/PATAGONIA IN ARGENTINA...WHERE IT IS FOCUSING SHORT WAVE
ENERGY. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 50S 60W...ACROSS LA PAMPA IN ARGENTINA...SANTIAGO
CHILE...TO 22S 80W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN BRASIL-MISIONES IN ARGENTINA/SOUTHEAST PARAGUAY.

AT LOW LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ANCHORS ON
A 1037 HPA HIGH AT 36S 89W. SOUTHEAST OF THIS RIDGE...A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE DRAKE PASSAGE TO SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH
AMERICA...WHILE ANCHORING ON AN OCCLUDED 974 HPA LOW AT 63S 71W. A
POLAR FRONT TO THE NORTH EXTENDS FROM AN OCCLUDED 986 HPA LOW AT
57S 68W...A 86 HPA LOW AT 56S 65W... SOUTHERN PATAGONIA...A 1002
HPA LOW AT 53S 76W...50S 83W...TO 51S 90W. THIS SUSTAINS SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS TIERRA DEL FUEGO AND SOUTHERN PATAGONIA IN
ARGENTINA. OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC...A POLAR FRONT LIES ALONG A
1010 HPA LOW AT 47S 29W...43S 35W...A 1010 HPA LOW AT 44S
42W...39S 46W...A 1006 HPA LOW AT 37S 52W... NORTHERN URUGUAY...A
1006 HPA LOW AT 30S 57W...RESISTENCIA ARGENTINA TO SOUTHERN
BOLIVIA. THIS SUSTAINS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
PARAGUAY-MESOPOTAMIA VALLEY IN ARGENTINA-SOUTHERN BRASIL AND
URUGUAY. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...POLAR RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS
CENTRAL ARGENTINA...SUSTAINING A COLD ADVECTIVE PATTERN AND
GENERATION OF POST FRONTAL SNOWFALL EAST OF THE ANDES OVER MENDOZA
IN ARGENTINA. A RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC CENTERS ON A 1029 HPA HIGH
AT 29S 26W. AN OLD FRONT TO THE NORTH LIES ALONG 23S 13W...18S
23W...TO SOUTHERN BAHIA...WHERE IT FAVORS SCATTERED RAINFALL. A
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM 20S 17W...ALONG 11S 26W...TO
RIO GRANDE DO NORTE...WHERE IT IS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE.

FERNANDES...INMET (BRASIL)
JALFIN...SMN (ARGENTINA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

$$







000
FXSA20 KWBC 231340
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
940 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM 23 JULY 00UTC): AT 200 HPA A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE NOW EXTENDS OVER PARA/AMAZONAS IN BRASIL.  THIS IS VENTING
LATE AFTERNOON DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. SHALLOW CONVECTION...MEANWHILE...WAS CLUSTERING ACROSS
NORTHEAST COAST OF BRASIL AS ENHANCE BY A SHEAR LINE.

AT 250 HPA...THE SOUTHERN POLAR HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 64S
104W...ALONG 57S 88W...EXITING AT 49S 73W. IT REFORMS AT 42S
58W...ALONG 48S 50W...A 168KT MAXIMUM AT 50S 40W...46S 24W...A
126KT MAXIMUM AT 40S 20W...EXITING AT 37S 16W. THE NORTHERN POLAR
HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 32S 110W...ALONG 35S 107W...45S 103W...A 125KT
MAXIMUM AT 47S 90W...41S 83W...30S 78W...27S 69W...RIO DE LA
PLATA...42S 50W...A 125KT MAXIMUM AT 46S 40W...46S 30W...32S
19W...AND 29S 10W. THE SUBTROPICAL JET HAS ITS ENTRANCE AT 27S
88W...ALONG A 132KT MAXIMUM AT 25S 80W... NORTHERN CHILE...SANTA
CRUZ BOLIVIA...EXITING AT 17S 53W.

AT 500 HPA...A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXTENDS
SOUTH ALONG A CLOSED HIGH NEAR 18S 92W...30S 95W...50S 100W...TO
60S 120W. EAST OF THIS AXIS...TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM
EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS THE BELLINGSHAUSEN SEA TO SOUTHERN
CHILE/PATAGONIA IN ARGENTINA...WHERE IT IS FOCUSING SHORT WAVE
ENERGY. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 50S 60W...ACROSS LA PAMPA IN ARGENTINA...SANTIAGO
CHILE...TO 22S 80W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN BRASIL-MISIONES IN ARGENTINA/SOUTHEAST PARAGUAY.

AT LOW LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ANCHORS ON
A 1037 HPA HIGH AT 36S 89W. SOUTHEAST OF THIS RIDGE...A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE DRAKE PASSAGE TO SOUTHERN CONE OF SOUTH
AMERICA...WHILE ANCHORING ON AN OCCLUDED 974 HPA LOW AT 63S 71W. A
POLAR FRONT TO THE NORTH EXTENDS FROM AN OCCLUDED 986 HPA LOW AT
57S 68W...A 86 HPA LOW AT 56S 65W... SOUTHERN PATAGONIA...A 1002
HPA LOW AT 53S 76W...50S 83W...TO 51S 90W. THIS SUSTAINS SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS TIERRA DEL FUEGO AND SOUTHERN PATAGONIA IN
ARGENTINA. OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC...A POLAR FRONT LIES ALONG A
1010 HPA LOW AT 47S 29W...43S 35W...A 1010 HPA LOW AT 44S
42W...39S 46W...A 1006 HPA LOW AT 37S 52W... NORTHERN URUGUAY...A
1006 HPA LOW AT 30S 57W...RESISTENCIA ARGENTINA TO SOUTHERN
BOLIVIA. THIS SUSTAINS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
PARAGUAY-MESOPOTAMIA VALLEY IN ARGENTINA-SOUTHERN BRASIL AND
URUGUAY. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...POLAR RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS
CENTRAL ARGENTINA...SUSTAINING A COLD ADVECTIVE PATTERN AND
GENERATION OF POST FRONTAL SNOWFALL EAST OF THE ANDES OVER MENDOZA
IN ARGENTINA. A RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC CENTERS ON A 1029 HPA HIGH
AT 29S 26W. AN OLD FRONT TO THE NORTH LIES ALONG 23S 13W...18S
23W...TO SOUTHERN BAHIA...WHERE IT FAVORS SCATTERED RAINFALL. A
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM 20S 17W...ALONG 11S 26W...TO
RIO GRANDE DO NORTE...WHERE IT IS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE.

FERNANDES...INMET (BRASIL)
JALFIN...SMN (ARGENTINA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)

$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 231141
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
741 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. TUTT LOW NEAR
25N 63W  EXTENDS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
ISLES. SOUTH OF THIS AXIS...A RIDGE IS EXTENDING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...WHERE IT SUSTAINS A MID/UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN AND
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. AT LOW LEVELS...THE NHC IS FORECASTING
TD-TWO TO WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE AS IT ENTERS THE
LESSER ANTILLES EARLY ON THURSDAY. A PLUME OF MOISTURE FOLLOWS
THIS SYSTEM AS IT INDUCES THE NORTHWARD MODULATION OF THE ATLANTIC
ITCZ. THIS IS TO PEAK AROUND TWO INCHES AS IT ENTERS THE FRENCH
ISLES...WHILE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLES/PUERTO RICO IT IS TO PEAK
AROUND 1.75 LATER ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AS MOISTURE IS TO TRAIL THE
WAVE...MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SHOWING MOIST CONDITIONS PERSISTING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE CAP INVERSION IS TO WEAKEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR POSSIBILITY OF SOME DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS TO
DEVELOP WITH THE WAVE AND FOLLOWING WAVE PASSAGE...WITH GDI
SHOWING MODERATE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS.

GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE
VI/EASTERN PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY EVENING-FRIDAY...WITH DAILY
MAXIMA PEAKING BETWEEN HALF AND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. SOME OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY MAXIMA ACROSS
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING MUCH WELCOME RELIEF TO DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.


FIGUEROA...MARN (EL SALVADOR)
VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 231141
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
741 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. TUTT LOW NEAR
25N 63W  EXTENDS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
ISLES. SOUTH OF THIS AXIS...A RIDGE IS EXTENDING ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...WHERE IT SUSTAINS A MID/UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN AND
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. AT LOW LEVELS...THE NHC IS FORECASTING
TD-TWO TO WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE AS IT ENTERS THE
LESSER ANTILLES EARLY ON THURSDAY. A PLUME OF MOISTURE FOLLOWS
THIS SYSTEM AS IT INDUCES THE NORTHWARD MODULATION OF THE ATLANTIC
ITCZ. THIS IS TO PEAK AROUND TWO INCHES AS IT ENTERS THE FRENCH
ISLES...WHILE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLES/PUERTO RICO IT IS TO PEAK
AROUND 1.75 LATER ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. AS MOISTURE IS TO TRAIL THE
WAVE...MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SHOWING MOIST CONDITIONS PERSISTING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE CAP INVERSION IS TO WEAKEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR POSSIBILITY OF SOME DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS TO
DEVELOP WITH THE WAVE AND FOLLOWING WAVE PASSAGE...WITH GDI
SHOWING MODERATE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS.

GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE
VI/EASTERN PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY EVENING-FRIDAY...WITH DAILY
MAXIMA PEAKING BETWEEN HALF AND THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH. SOME OF
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY MAXIMA ACROSS
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING MUCH WELCOME RELIEF TO DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.


FIGUEROA...MARN (EL SALVADOR)
VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
$$






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