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000
FXUS01 KWBC 282101
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

VALID 00Z SAT NOV 29 2014 - 00Z MON DEC 01 2014

...MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. WHILE ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND...

...RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

WITH A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CONTROL, THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE, MUCH WARMER AIR HAS BEEN BUILDING UP IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST, THE POOL OF
WARM AIR WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE
WEEKEND.  AT THE SAME TIME, ARCTIC AIR HAS BEEN BUILDING UP IN
WESTERN CANADA.  THE ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLANS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING A DRASTIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THESE
AREAS TOGETHER WITH A BURST OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION.  ARCTIC AIR WILL ALSO FILTER IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
SNOW SHOWERS AND SUBFREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES.  BY SUNDAY, THE
ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES.  SOME FREEZING RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.

OVER THE WEST COAST, PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO
STALL DURING THE WEEKEND.  ELSEWHERE, DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  THE WEATHER IN THE SOUTH
SHOULD ALSO BE FINE WITH MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

KONG


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 282101
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

VALID 00Z SAT NOV 29 2014 - 00Z MON DEC 01 2014

...MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. WHILE ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND...

...RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

WITH A COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CONTROL, THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
START OUT THE WEEKEND WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MEANWHILE, MUCH WARMER AIR HAS BEEN BUILDING UP IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST, THE POOL OF
WARM AIR WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE
WEEKEND.  AT THE SAME TIME, ARCTIC AIR HAS BEEN BUILDING UP IN
WESTERN CANADA.  THE ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO PLUNGE INTO AND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLANS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY, BRINGING A DRASTIC DROP IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THESE
AREAS TOGETHER WITH A BURST OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION.  ARCTIC AIR WILL ALSO FILTER IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
SNOW SHOWERS AND SUBFREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES.  BY SUNDAY, THE
ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES.  SOME FREEZING RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.

OVER THE WEST COAST, PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO
STALL DURING THE WEEKEND.  ELSEWHERE, DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  THE WEATHER IN THE SOUTH
SHOULD ALSO BE FINE WITH MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

KONG


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS06 KWBC 282001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI NOVEMBER 28 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 04 - 08 2014

THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE VARIOUS MODELS IS A BIT BETTER
TODAY THAN ON YESTERDAY`S RUNS. AS IN YESTERDAY`S FORECAST, THE MODELS AGREE
WELL ON THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW PATTERN BUT DISAGREE ON A SOUTHERN-STREAM
TROUGH FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WITHIN THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. THE GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS TEND TO FORECAST A SPLIT FLOW, WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE. THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES KEEP THE SOUTHERN STREAM MORE INTACT WITH A NORTHERN-STREAM
TROUGH FORECAST TO BE WELL OFF THE COAST IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. TODAY`S
ECMWF SHOWS MORE HINTS OF AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM THAN IT DID ON YESTERDAY`S
PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE GEFS ON THE LIKELY TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES OVER THE CONUS WITHIN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE
CANADIAN MODEL RESEMBLES THE GEFS SOLUTION, LEADING TO HIGHER WEIGHTS GIVEN TO
THE GEFS ENSEMBLE IN TODAY`S BLEND.

ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY LEADING TO
ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. THE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER IN TODAY`S
ENSEMBLE MEANS, BUT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE GEFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE U.S. - CANADIAN BORDER
FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EASTERN
TROUGH.  A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF CANADA INTO EASTERN ALASKA,
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE, BUT HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL, SO NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR NORTHERN ALASKA.

THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ELEVATED FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE GEFS IS QUITE CONFIDENT FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NEAR
TEXAS, HOWEVER PROBABILITIES ARE KEPT FAIRLY LOW CONSIDERING THE WEAKER
SOUTHERN JET PREDICTED BY THE ECMWF. AS IN YESTERDAY`S MODEL RUNS, THE GEFS
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FROM TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD TO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. THE PREDICTION OF A
DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF CANADA SUGGESTS A NORTHERLY
DISPLACEMENT OF THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK WITH ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, AND ELEVATED CHANCES OF
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: 6Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BUT WITH CONTINUED DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 06 - 12 2014

THE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS FOR THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE POOR. AT ISSUE IS THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO
BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, AND THE STRENGTH OF A SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE GEFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A
PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN
JET OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO ITS NORTH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE
ECMWF KEEPS ONLY A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS, BUT WITH HIGHER AMPLITUDE IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM, LEADING TO A FAIRLY DEEP EASTERN TROUGH. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS RUNS
ALSO SUGGEST A DEEPER EASTERN TROUGH THAN THE GEFS.

MOST ENSEMBLES FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA,
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE CONUS.
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH, IN VIEW OF THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW
SUGGESTED BY THE CANADIAN MODEL AND THE DETERMINISTIC GFS. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN THE NORTHEAST CONUS CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS
PREDICTED BY THE GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS.

TODAY`S 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK WAS REVISED CONSIDERABLY FROM
YESTERDAY`S OUTLOOK IN PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS, REFLECTING THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE POSSIBLE TRACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
JET. THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM TODAY`S GEFS REFORECAST ARE MORE
CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS THAN YESTERDAY`S RUNS. THE
BETTER CONSISTENCY INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT IN THE PREDICTIONS SINCE
IT SUGGESTS A MORE STABLE PATTERN. TODAY`S FORECAST SUGGESTS ENHANCED CHANCES
FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN JET FROM TEXAS TO
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. RELATIVELY DRY NORTHWESTLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHICH TOGETHER WITH THE NORTHERN-STREAM RIDGE
SHOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF WASHINGTON STATE. THE
EXPECTED WESTERN RIDGE INCREASES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AS IT DIVERTS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK NORTHWARD.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND THE AMPLITUDE
OF A POSSIBLE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
DECEMBER 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19721129 - 19581203 - 19931108 - 19601109 - 20021205


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19721129 - 19581202 - 19931107 - 19961111 - 19641122


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 04 - 08 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    N    N
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       N    N
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 06 - 12 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    N
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$





000
FXUS06 KWBC 282001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI NOVEMBER 28 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 04 - 08 2014

THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE VARIOUS MODELS IS A BIT BETTER
TODAY THAN ON YESTERDAY`S RUNS. AS IN YESTERDAY`S FORECAST, THE MODELS AGREE
WELL ON THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW PATTERN BUT DISAGREE ON A SOUTHERN-STREAM
TROUGH FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WITHIN THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. THE GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS TEND TO FORECAST A SPLIT FLOW, WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE. THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES KEEP THE SOUTHERN STREAM MORE INTACT WITH A NORTHERN-STREAM
TROUGH FORECAST TO BE WELL OFF THE COAST IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. TODAY`S
ECMWF SHOWS MORE HINTS OF AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM THAN IT DID ON YESTERDAY`S
PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE GEFS ON THE LIKELY TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES OVER THE CONUS WITHIN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE
CANADIAN MODEL RESEMBLES THE GEFS SOLUTION, LEADING TO HIGHER WEIGHTS GIVEN TO
THE GEFS ENSEMBLE IN TODAY`S BLEND.

ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY LEADING TO
ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. THE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER IN TODAY`S
ENSEMBLE MEANS, BUT TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE GEFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE U.S. - CANADIAN BORDER
FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EASTERN
TROUGH.  A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF CANADA INTO EASTERN ALASKA,
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
STATE, BUT HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL, SO NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR NORTHERN ALASKA.

THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ELEVATED FOR PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE GEFS IS QUITE CONFIDENT FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NEAR
TEXAS, HOWEVER PROBABILITIES ARE KEPT FAIRLY LOW CONSIDERING THE WEAKER
SOUTHERN JET PREDICTED BY THE ECMWF. AS IN YESTERDAY`S MODEL RUNS, THE GEFS
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FROM TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD TO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. THE PREDICTION OF A
DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF CANADA SUGGESTS A NORTHERLY
DISPLACEMENT OF THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK WITH ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, AND ELEVATED CHANCES OF
BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: 6Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BUT WITH CONTINUED DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 06 - 12 2014

THE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS FOR THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE POOR. AT ISSUE IS THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH FORECAST TO
BE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, AND THE STRENGTH OF A SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE GEFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A
PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN
JET OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO ITS NORTH OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE
ECMWF KEEPS ONLY A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM IN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. THE CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS, BUT WITH HIGHER AMPLITUDE IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM, LEADING TO A FAIRLY DEEP EASTERN TROUGH. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS RUNS
ALSO SUGGEST A DEEPER EASTERN TROUGH THAN THE GEFS.

MOST ENSEMBLES FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA,
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE CONUS.
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH, IN VIEW OF THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW
SUGGESTED BY THE CANADIAN MODEL AND THE DETERMINISTIC GFS. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED IN THE NORTHEAST CONUS CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS
PREDICTED BY THE GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS.

TODAY`S 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK WAS REVISED CONSIDERABLY FROM
YESTERDAY`S OUTLOOK IN PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS, REFLECTING THE BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE POSSIBLE TRACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
JET. THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM TODAY`S GEFS REFORECAST ARE MORE
CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS THAN YESTERDAY`S RUNS. THE
BETTER CONSISTENCY INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE SOMEWHAT IN THE PREDICTIONS SINCE
IT SUGGESTS A MORE STABLE PATTERN. TODAY`S FORECAST SUGGESTS ENHANCED CHANCES
FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN JET FROM TEXAS TO
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. RELATIVELY DRY NORTHWESTLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHICH TOGETHER WITH THE NORTHERN-STREAM RIDGE
SHOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF WASHINGTON STATE. THE
EXPECTED WESTERN RIDGE INCREASES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AS IT DIVERTS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK NORTHWARD.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND THE AMPLITUDE
OF A POSSIBLE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
DECEMBER 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19721129 - 19581203 - 19931108 - 19601109 - 20021205


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19721129 - 19581202 - 19931107 - 19961111 - 19641122


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 04 - 08 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    N    N
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       N    N
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 06 - 12 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    N
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 281543
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1042 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

VALID 12Z MON DEC 01 2014 - 12Z FRI DEC 05 2014

...HEAVY PRECIPITATION HEADED FOR THE WEST COAST...

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE CONVERGED ON A MORE COMMON FLOW PATTERN
EVOLTUION NEXT WEEK...BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE/TIMING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

IN THE SRN STREAM...ERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY AND
WELL ORGAINZIED SURFACE SYSTEM/HEAVY PCPN TRANSLATION TO THE WRN
US SEEMS MORE ON TRACK. WPC ADJUSTMENT FROM AN SIMPLE GUIDANCE
COMPOSITE IS MORE MINOR COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM FLOW STILL SEEM TO BETTER SUPPORT
PROGRESSION ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF NOW BETTER CLUSTERED GUIDANCE.
GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY AND RECENT PAST RUN TO RUN ISSUES
THOUGH...PREFER AN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST APPROACH AND YESTERDAYS
12 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FITS THAT SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN OTHER
ENSEMBLE SYSTEM CHOICES WHILE MAINTAINING MAX WPC CONTINUITY.

IN THE NRN STREAM...DEEP EXTRATROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
BERING SEA INTO GULF OF ALASKA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACT TO BUILD AN
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. THIS SHOULD BETTER
ALLOW ENERGY AND LOWER ATMOSPHERIC COLD AIR TO DIG TO THE LEE OF
THE RIDGE TO CARVE OUT A GRADUALLY PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFYING NWRN
TO N-CENTRAL TO ERN US MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH
AMPLE ROOM TO DIG NOW PROVIDED BY A SLOWER INLAND PROGRESSION OF
SRN STREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM ENERGY. YESTERDAYS 12 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN WAS PRIMARILY USED TO DERIVE WPC SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURE AND
500 MB PROGS. OF THE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS...THIS CHOICE OFFERS A BIT
MORE FLOW AMPLITUDE AND BETTER WPC CONTINUITY WHILE STILL ALLOWING
FOR A MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF COOLING HIGH PRESSURE DOWN ACROSS THE
S-CENTRAL AND ERN US ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED ERN US CENTERED PCPN
POTENTIAL WITH APPROACH OF A MORE DYNAMICALLY SUPPORTED AND
MOISTURE FOCUSING LEAD FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SCHICHTEL


$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 281543
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1042 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

VALID 12Z MON DEC 01 2014 - 12Z FRI DEC 05 2014

...HEAVY PRECIPITATION HEADED FOR THE WEST COAST...

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE CONVERGED ON A MORE COMMON FLOW PATTERN
EVOLTUION NEXT WEEK...BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE/TIMING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

IN THE SRN STREAM...ERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY AND
WELL ORGAINZIED SURFACE SYSTEM/HEAVY PCPN TRANSLATION TO THE WRN
US SEEMS MORE ON TRACK. WPC ADJUSTMENT FROM AN SIMPLE GUIDANCE
COMPOSITE IS MORE MINOR COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM FLOW STILL SEEM TO BETTER SUPPORT
PROGRESSION ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF NOW BETTER CLUSTERED GUIDANCE.
GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY AND RECENT PAST RUN TO RUN ISSUES
THOUGH...PREFER AN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST APPROACH AND YESTERDAYS
12 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FITS THAT SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN OTHER
ENSEMBLE SYSTEM CHOICES WHILE MAINTAINING MAX WPC CONTINUITY.

IN THE NRN STREAM...DEEP EXTRATROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
BERING SEA INTO GULF OF ALASKA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACT TO BUILD AN
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. THIS SHOULD BETTER
ALLOW ENERGY AND LOWER ATMOSPHERIC COLD AIR TO DIG TO THE LEE OF
THE RIDGE TO CARVE OUT A GRADUALLY PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFYING NWRN
TO N-CENTRAL TO ERN US MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH
AMPLE ROOM TO DIG NOW PROVIDED BY A SLOWER INLAND PROGRESSION OF
SRN STREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM ENERGY. YESTERDAYS 12 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN WAS PRIMARILY USED TO DERIVE WPC SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURE AND
500 MB PROGS. OF THE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS...THIS CHOICE OFFERS A BIT
MORE FLOW AMPLITUDE AND BETTER WPC CONTINUITY WHILE STILL ALLOWING
FOR A MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF COOLING HIGH PRESSURE DOWN ACROSS THE
S-CENTRAL AND ERN US ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCED ERN US CENTERED PCPN
POTENTIAL WITH APPROACH OF A MORE DYNAMICALLY SUPPORTED AND
MOISTURE FOCUSING LEAD FRONTAL SYSTEM.

SCHICHTEL


$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 281539
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1037 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

VALID 12Z MON DEC 01 2014 - 12Z FRI DEC 05 2014

...HEAVY PRECIPITATION HEADED FOR THE WEST COAST...

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE CONVERGED ON A MORE COMMON FLOW PATTERN
EVOLTUION NEXT WEEK...BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE/TIMING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

IN THE SRN STREAM...ERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY AND
WELL ORGAINZIED SURFACE SYSTEM/HEAVY PCPN TRANSLATION TO THE WRN
US SEEMS MORE ON TRACK. WPC ADJUSTMENT FROM AN SIMPLE GUIDANCE
COMPOSITE IS MORE MINOR COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM FLOW STILL SEEM TO BETTER SUPPORT
PROGRESSION ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF NOW BETTER CLUSTERED GUIDANCE.
GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY AND RECENT PAST RUN TO RUN ISSUES
THOUGH...PREFER AN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST APPROACH AND YESTERDAYS
12 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FITS THAT SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN OTHER
ENSEMBLE SYSTEM CHOICES WHILE MAINTAINING MAX WPC CONTINUITY.

IN THE NRN STREAM...DEEP EXTRATROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
BERING SEA INTO GULF OF ALASKA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACT TO BUILD AN
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. THIS SHOULD BETTER
ALLOW ENERGY AND LOWER ATMOSPHERIC COLD AIR TO DIG TO THE LEE OF
THE RIDGE TO CARVE OUT A GRADUALLY PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFYING NWRN
TO N-CENTRAL TO ERN US MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH
AMPLE ROOM TO DIG NOW PROVIDED BY A SLOWER INLAND PROGRESSION OF
SRN STREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM ENERGY.
THE 12 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS PRIMARILY USED TO DERIVE WPC
SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURE AND 500 MB PROGS. OF THE ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS...THIS CHOICE OFFERS A BIT MORE FLOW AMPLITUDE AND BETTER
WPC CONTINUITY WHILE STILL ALLOWING FOR A MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF
COOLING HIGH PRESSURE DOWN ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL AND ERN US ALONG
WITH SOME ENHANCED ERN US CENTERED PCPN POTENTIAL WITH APPROACH OF
A MORE DYNAMICALLY SUPPORTED AND MOISTURE FOCUSING LEAD FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

SCHICHTEL


$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 281539
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1037 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

VALID 12Z MON DEC 01 2014 - 12Z FRI DEC 05 2014

...HEAVY PRECIPITATION HEADED FOR THE WEST COAST...

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE CONVERGED ON A MORE COMMON FLOW PATTERN
EVOLTUION NEXT WEEK...BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE/TIMING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

IN THE SRN STREAM...ERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY AND
WELL ORGAINZIED SURFACE SYSTEM/HEAVY PCPN TRANSLATION TO THE WRN
US SEEMS MORE ON TRACK. WPC ADJUSTMENT FROM AN SIMPLE GUIDANCE
COMPOSITE IS MORE MINOR COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...BUT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM FLOW STILL SEEM TO BETTER SUPPORT
PROGRESSION ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF NOW BETTER CLUSTERED GUIDANCE.
GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY AND RECENT PAST RUN TO RUN ISSUES
THOUGH...PREFER AN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST APPROACH AND YESTERDAYS
12 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FITS THAT SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN OTHER
ENSEMBLE SYSTEM CHOICES WHILE MAINTAINING MAX WPC CONTINUITY.

IN THE NRN STREAM...DEEP EXTRATROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
BERING SEA INTO GULF OF ALASKA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACT TO BUILD AN
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. THIS SHOULD BETTER
ALLOW ENERGY AND LOWER ATMOSPHERIC COLD AIR TO DIG TO THE LEE OF
THE RIDGE TO CARVE OUT A GRADUALLY PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFYING NWRN
TO N-CENTRAL TO ERN US MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH
AMPLE ROOM TO DIG NOW PROVIDED BY A SLOWER INLAND PROGRESSION OF
SRN STREAM PACIFIC SYSTEM ENERGY.
THE 12 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS PRIMARILY USED TO DERIVE WPC
SURFACE FRONTS/PRESSURE AND 500 MB PROGS. OF THE ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS...THIS CHOICE OFFERS A BIT MORE FLOW AMPLITUDE AND BETTER
WPC CONTINUITY WHILE STILL ALLOWING FOR A MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF
COOLING HIGH PRESSURE DOWN ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL AND ERN US ALONG
WITH SOME ENHANCED ERN US CENTERED PCPN POTENTIAL WITH APPROACH OF
A MORE DYNAMICALLY SUPPORTED AND MOISTURE FOCUSING LEAD FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

SCHICHTEL


$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 280841
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
341 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

VALID 12Z FRI NOV 28 2014 - 12Z SUN NOV 30 2014

***COLD ON FRIDAY FOR THE EASTERN U.S. THEN WARMING***

***BIG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS***

***PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES***

THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WILL HAVE COLDER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD
AND NORTHERLY WINDS.  WIDESPREAD 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS, AND SUBFREEZING LOWS.  SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES.  WARMER
WEATHER IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD SURFACE
HIGH MOVES EASTWARD AND THE WIND BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.

ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS, AN ARCTIC FRONT
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
WEATHER FROM WASHINGTON STATE TO THE DAKOTAS FOR THIS WEEKEND.  A
SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WHERE THIS FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.  THERE WILL ALSO BE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SNOW WITH THIS FRONT, BUT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
HEAVY SNOW SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S., NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.  PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND OREGON WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION.

D. HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 280841
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
341 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

VALID 12Z FRI NOV 28 2014 - 12Z SUN NOV 30 2014

***COLD ON FRIDAY FOR THE EASTERN U.S. THEN WARMING***

***BIG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS***

***PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES***

THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WILL HAVE COLDER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD
AND NORTHERLY WINDS.  WIDESPREAD 30S AND 40S ARE EXPECTED FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS, AND SUBFREEZING LOWS.  SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES.  WARMER
WEATHER IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD SURFACE
HIGH MOVES EASTWARD AND THE WIND BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.

ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS, AN ARCTIC FRONT
SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
WEATHER FROM WASHINGTON STATE TO THE DAKOTAS FOR THIS WEEKEND.  A
SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WHERE THIS FRONT PASSES
THROUGH.  THERE WILL ALSO BE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SNOW WITH THIS FRONT, BUT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
HEAVY SNOW SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S., NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.  PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY FOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND OREGON WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION.

D. HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 280622
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
121 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

VALID 12Z MON DEC 01 2014 - 12Z FRI DEC 05 2014


...MODEL PREFERENCES...
A BLEND OF THE 27/12Z ECENS AND 27/18Z GEFS LOOKED VERY REASONABLE
THROUGH DAY 7 ACROSS THE LOWER 48---WITH THEIR DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 6. FOR DAYS 3-5...BOTH
DEVELOP A VERY COLD CORE OF ARCTIC AIR (IN THE M27C-M30C RANGE)
AND MIGRATE THE CORE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO. THE SAME APPEARS TRUE OF THEIR STRONG
SURFACE SURFACE HIGH SOLUTIONS---ALLOWING SOME COLD AIR TO SEEP
WEST OF THE DIVIDE---AND INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST---PRE-DAY3---THEN ALLOWING SURFACE RIDGING AND ITS
COLD/DRY AIRMASS TO SPREAD THE PREVAILING AIRMASS ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE LOWER 48.

AT DAY 6...THE 27/18Z AND 28/00Z GFS TAKES THE FAST LEAD IN
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION `BREAKOUT` FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS PRECIPITATION---SHOULD
IT DEVELOP---WOULD BE WITHIN THE BROADENING WARM SECTOR---AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY. I
CAN`T ARGUE AGAINST THIS SOLUTION...AND WITH THE PACIFIC JET IN A
FAST-WESTERLY MODE---CAN`T DISCOUNT THE GEFS---ONLY BECAUSE (ITS
BIAS) IS TO BE A FASTER SOLUTION VERSUS THE ECENS.

...UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
IN SIMPLE TERMS...THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/GFS DIFFERENCES ALONG
THE WEST COAST STILL SEEM RELATED TO THE SAME ENERGY TRANSFER
ISSUES---THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH ALONG 160W (NEAR THE
ALEUTIANS) AND NORTHEAST OF HAWAI`I FOR MORE THAN A WEEK NOW. SAME
MODEL ISSUES EMERGING NORTHWEST OF HAWAI`I NEAR THE DATELINE.

MUCH OF THE DIFFERENCE CONCERNS AN ACTIVE PACIFIC JET THAT HAS
GENERATED A SERIES OF VERY INTENSE SHORTWAVES OFF THE COAST OF
JAPAN. ANOTHER KEY FEATURE OF THE PATTERN IS THE ANCHORING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. ONCE THESE SYSTEMS
APPROACH THE DATELINE---THEY BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT---SENDING SOME
ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA---SENDING A WEAKENING VERSION
OF THE WAVE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC ALONG 45N LATITUDE TO
BECOME PART OF THE BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. AND LAST BUT
NOT LEAST...DIG SOME OF THE ENERGY INTO THE SUBTROPICS...AND ALLOW
SOME REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE...TO MAKE A GRADUAL APPROACH
TOWARDS HAWAI`I FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT
AND/OR ORGANIZED SERIES OF WEAK SHEAR LINES. IF THE ANCHORING LOW
WERE IN ITS `NORMAL` LOCATION---THE GULF OF ALASKA---THEN THERE
WOULD BE A VERY CLEAN SET OF WAVE CYCLONES MIGRATING ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC---AND THE SHEARING WOULD BE OCCURRING A GOOD 15-20
DEGREES EAST OF THE CURRENT LONGITUDE.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
1040MB CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
DAYS 3-4---RESULTING IN COLD CONDITIONS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FAST-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW MAY PROVIDE SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOWFALLS FROM THE
WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER---EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MIDWEST.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION DIRECTED ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND OREGON.
INITIALLY...PRECIPITATION FOCUS WILL BE ALONG A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT FOR DAY 3---FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE CYCLONE THAT MEANDERS OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST DURING DAYS 4-5. THIS CYCLONE EVENTUALLY
MOVES INLAND AROUND DAY 6-7---AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MIGRATING ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC AND INSIDE OF 130W.

VOJTESAK

$$






000
FXUS02 KWBC 280622
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
121 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

VALID 12Z MON DEC 01 2014 - 12Z FRI DEC 05 2014


...MODEL PREFERENCES...
A BLEND OF THE 27/12Z ECENS AND 27/18Z GEFS LOOKED VERY REASONABLE
THROUGH DAY 7 ACROSS THE LOWER 48---WITH THEIR DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL DAY 6. FOR DAYS 3-5...BOTH
DEVELOP A VERY COLD CORE OF ARCTIC AIR (IN THE M27C-M30C RANGE)
AND MIGRATE THE CORE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND
ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO. THE SAME APPEARS TRUE OF THEIR STRONG
SURFACE SURFACE HIGH SOLUTIONS---ALLOWING SOME COLD AIR TO SEEP
WEST OF THE DIVIDE---AND INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST---PRE-DAY3---THEN ALLOWING SURFACE RIDGING AND ITS
COLD/DRY AIRMASS TO SPREAD THE PREVAILING AIRMASS ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE LOWER 48.

AT DAY 6...THE 27/18Z AND 28/00Z GFS TAKES THE FAST LEAD IN
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION `BREAKOUT` FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS PRECIPITATION---SHOULD
IT DEVELOP---WOULD BE WITHIN THE BROADENING WARM SECTOR---AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY. I
CAN`T ARGUE AGAINST THIS SOLUTION...AND WITH THE PACIFIC JET IN A
FAST-WESTERLY MODE---CAN`T DISCOUNT THE GEFS---ONLY BECAUSE (ITS
BIAS) IS TO BE A FASTER SOLUTION VERSUS THE ECENS.

...UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
IN SIMPLE TERMS...THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/GFS DIFFERENCES ALONG
THE WEST COAST STILL SEEM RELATED TO THE SAME ENERGY TRANSFER
ISSUES---THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH ALONG 160W (NEAR THE
ALEUTIANS) AND NORTHEAST OF HAWAI`I FOR MORE THAN A WEEK NOW. SAME
MODEL ISSUES EMERGING NORTHWEST OF HAWAI`I NEAR THE DATELINE.

MUCH OF THE DIFFERENCE CONCERNS AN ACTIVE PACIFIC JET THAT HAS
GENERATED A SERIES OF VERY INTENSE SHORTWAVES OFF THE COAST OF
JAPAN. ANOTHER KEY FEATURE OF THE PATTERN IS THE ANCHORING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. ONCE THESE SYSTEMS
APPROACH THE DATELINE---THEY BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT---SENDING SOME
ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA---SENDING A WEAKENING VERSION
OF THE WAVE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC ALONG 45N LATITUDE TO
BECOME PART OF THE BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. AND LAST BUT
NOT LEAST...DIG SOME OF THE ENERGY INTO THE SUBTROPICS...AND ALLOW
SOME REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE...TO MAKE A GRADUAL APPROACH
TOWARDS HAWAI`I FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT
AND/OR ORGANIZED SERIES OF WEAK SHEAR LINES. IF THE ANCHORING LOW
WERE IN ITS `NORMAL` LOCATION---THE GULF OF ALASKA---THEN THERE
WOULD BE A VERY CLEAN SET OF WAVE CYCLONES MIGRATING ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC---AND THE SHEARING WOULD BE OCCURRING A GOOD 15-20
DEGREES EAST OF THE CURRENT LONGITUDE.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
1040MB CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
DAYS 3-4---RESULTING IN COLD CONDITIONS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FAST-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW MAY PROVIDE SOME LOCALIZED LIGHT SNOWFALLS FROM THE
WYOMING/COLORADO BORDER---EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MIDWEST.

UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION DIRECTED ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND OREGON.
INITIALLY...PRECIPITATION FOCUS WILL BE ALONG A SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT FOR DAY 3---FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE CYCLONE THAT MEANDERS OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST DURING DAYS 4-5. THIS CYCLONE EVENTUALLY
MOVES INLAND AROUND DAY 6-7---AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MIGRATING ACROSS THE EAST PACIFIC AND INSIDE OF 130W.

VOJTESAK

$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 272005
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

VALID 00Z FRI NOV 28 2014 - 00Z SUN NOV 30 2014

...STORMY WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...

...SNOW EXPECTED IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES..

...COLD WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...


SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE NOR`EASTER MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.
SNOW CAN STILL BE EXPECTED IN THE MID-WEST, GREAT LAKES, AND
NORTHERN APPALACHIANS REGIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  IN ADDITION, COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST FOR THE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH, AND BEHIND IT VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL
FOLLOW. HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW AND MODERATE RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THESE REGIONS ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS.
CURRENTLY, THE PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ALONG THE
CASCADES.  HOWEVER, BY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY IT WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN IDAHO AND NORTHWEST
MONTANA.  ON SATURDAY, AS THE ARCTIC FRONT DIPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

SNOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE THANKSGIVING
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.  THERE IS ALREADY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON
THE LEE SIDE OF THE LAKES.  HOWEVER ONCE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM BEGINS APPROACHING
THE UPPER MIDWEST, SNOW WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD.  BY SATURDAY,
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN THIS REGION AND WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST AS A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH GOVERNS THE WEATHER PATTERN.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF
COAST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.


FANNING

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$






000
FXUS01 KWBC 272005
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
304 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

VALID 00Z FRI NOV 28 2014 - 00Z SUN NOV 30 2014

...STORMY WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...

...SNOW EXPECTED IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES..

...COLD WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN TIER STATES...


SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE NOR`EASTER MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.
SNOW CAN STILL BE EXPECTED IN THE MID-WEST, GREAT LAKES, AND
NORTHERN APPALACHIANS REGIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  IN ADDITION, COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST FOR THE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS QUITE THE IMPRESSIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH, AND BEHIND IT VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL
FOLLOW. HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW AND MODERATE RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THESE REGIONS ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS.
CURRENTLY, THE PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ALONG THE
CASCADES.  HOWEVER, BY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY IT WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN IDAHO AND NORTHWEST
MONTANA.  ON SATURDAY, AS THE ARCTIC FRONT DIPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA.

SNOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE THANKSGIVING
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.  THERE IS ALREADY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON
THE LEE SIDE OF THE LAKES.  HOWEVER ONCE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM BEGINS APPROACHING
THE UPPER MIDWEST, SNOW WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD.  BY SATURDAY,
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF IN THIS REGION AND WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST AS A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH GOVERNS THE WEATHER PATTERN.
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF
COAST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.


FANNING

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS06 KWBC 272001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU NOVEMBER 27 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 03 - 07 2014

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE VARIOUS
MODELS ON THE IMPORTANT 500-HPA FEATURES AFFECTING THE CONUS IN THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. AT ISSUE IS THE FORECAST EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS NEAR THE START OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH STALLING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS,
RESULTING IN A SPLIT FLOW ON THE 6-10 DAY MEAN. THE ECMWF, ON THE OTHER HAND,
KEEPS THE TROUGH OFF SHORE AND PHASED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE FORECAST
FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MODELS PREDICTING
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS BETWEEN 30 AND 50 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE, AND
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS FARTHER NORTH. THIS GIVES A POSITIVE AO/NAO LOOK TO THE
FLOW PATTERN AND A STRONG JET JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THE
500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA ARE MOSTLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE.

IN SPITE OF REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION ELSEWHERE, THE
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HAVE WIDESPREAD INFLUENCE ON THE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. THE SPLIT FLOW OF
THE GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS WOULD PROVIDE MOISTURE TO THE WESTERN CONUS NEAR
THE TROUGH, AND PROVIDE FOR MORE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
FLOW MORE ZONAL AND WITH LESS CERTAINTY IN ITS PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS. THE POOR
AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY`S MODELS RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE REVISIONS TO THE
FORECAST RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY`S OUTLOOK. THE GEFS SOLUTION WAS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED IN TODAY`S BLEND DUE TO IT`S AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY LEADING TO ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
THE CONUS. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE GEFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT SHALLOW COLD AIR MASSES WILL ELEVATE CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. TEMPERATURES IN ALASKA ARE WARMER TODAY THAN
INDICATED ON YESTERDAY`S OUTLOOK, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE, AND THE CHANCES OF NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN THE NORTH.

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK REFLECTS THE GEFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS FAVORING A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
THE PREDICTION OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF CANADA SUGGESTS A
NORTHERLY DISPLACEMENT OF THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK WITH ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, AND ELEVATED CHANCES
OF NEAR TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE GEFS FAVORS A STORM TRACK
STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY, HOWEVER THE FORECAST WAS
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE DRIER CONDITIONS SUGGESTED BY THE ANALOGS AND OTHER
TOOLS, AND INDICATES ONLY MINIMALLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: 6Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 05 - 11 2014

THE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS FOR THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD
IS POOR. THE GEFS MODELS PREDICT A SPLIT FLOW OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH
A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN JET OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND A RIDGE DIRECTLY NORTH OF
IT OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FLOW ZONAL WITH ONLY A WEAK
SOUTHERN STREAM AND INTENSIFIED WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S.- CANADIAN
BORDER. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS, BUT WITH HIGHER
AMPLITUDE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM, LEADING TO A FAIRLY DEEP EASTERN TROUGH. AS
IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE GEFS SOLUTION WAS SLIGHTLY FAVORED.

MOST ENSEMBLES FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA,
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE CONUS.
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH, IN VIEW OF THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW
SUGGESTED BY THE CANADIAN MODEL, WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED IN THE
REGIONS MOST INFLUENCED BY THE EASTERN TROUGH.

THE POSSIBILITY OF A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ELEVATES
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH
TEXAS, ALTHOUGH THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS LOW.  RELATIVELY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHICH TOGETHER WITH
THE NORTHERN-STREAM RIDGE SHOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS EXCEPT FOR
PARTS OF WASHINGTON STATE. THE GEFS REFORECAST INDICATES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH
PROBABILITIES ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TOWARD HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST. THE BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE INCREASES
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN ALASKA AS IT DIVERTS THE
PACIFIC STORM TRACK NORTHWARD.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 50% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11, AND 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: MUCH BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT.

FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
DECEMBER 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19721129 - 19581203 - 19931107 - 19911202 - 20081203


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19721128 - 19931106 - 19581202 - 19761201 - 20061203


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 03 - 07 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   B    B     E MONTANA   B    B     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    N    B
NEBRASKA    N    B     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        N    B     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   N    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 05 - 11 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    N    B     LOUISIANA   N    B     WISCONSIN   N    B
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI N    B     MICHIGAN    N    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     N    B     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    N    N     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  N    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$






000
FXUS06 KWBC 272001
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU NOVEMBER 27 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 03 - 07 2014

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OF THE VARIOUS
MODELS ON THE IMPORTANT 500-HPA FEATURES AFFECTING THE CONUS IN THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. AT ISSUE IS THE FORECAST EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE OFF THE
WEST COAST OF THE CONUS NEAR THE START OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH STALLING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS,
RESULTING IN A SPLIT FLOW ON THE 6-10 DAY MEAN. THE ECMWF, ON THE OTHER HAND,
KEEPS THE TROUGH OFF SHORE AND PHASED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE FORECAST
FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MODELS PREDICTING
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS BETWEEN 30 AND 50 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE, AND
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS FARTHER NORTH. THIS GIVES A POSITIVE AO/NAO LOOK TO THE
FLOW PATTERN AND A STRONG JET JUST NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THE
500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA ARE MOSTLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH
A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE.

IN SPITE OF REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION ELSEWHERE, THE
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HAVE WIDESPREAD INFLUENCE ON THE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. THE SPLIT FLOW OF
THE GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS WOULD PROVIDE MOISTURE TO THE WESTERN CONUS NEAR
THE TROUGH, AND PROVIDE FOR MORE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
FLOW MORE ZONAL AND WITH LESS CERTAINTY IN ITS PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS. THE POOR
AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY`S MODELS RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE REVISIONS TO THE
FORECAST RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY`S OUTLOOK. THE GEFS SOLUTION WAS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED IN TODAY`S BLEND DUE TO IT`S AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY LEADING TO ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
THE CONUS. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE GEFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT SHALLOW COLD AIR MASSES WILL ELEVATE CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. TEMPERATURES IN ALASKA ARE WARMER TODAY THAN
INDICATED ON YESTERDAY`S OUTLOOK, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE, AND THE CHANCES OF NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN THE NORTH.

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK REFLECTS THE GEFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS FAVORING A
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE ELEVATED FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE ANTICIPATED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH.
THE PREDICTION OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF CANADA SUGGESTS A
NORTHERLY DISPLACEMENT OF THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK WITH ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, AND ELEVATED CHANCES
OF NEAR TO BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE GEFS FAVORS A STORM TRACK
STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY, HOWEVER THE FORECAST WAS
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE DRIER CONDITIONS SUGGESTED BY THE ANALOGS AND OTHER
TOOLS, AND INDICATES ONLY MINIMALLY ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
10% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: 6Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 05 - 11 2014

THE AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS FOR THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD
IS POOR. THE GEFS MODELS PREDICT A SPLIT FLOW OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH
A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN JET OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND A RIDGE DIRECTLY NORTH OF
IT OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FLOW ZONAL WITH ONLY A WEAK
SOUTHERN STREAM AND INTENSIFIED WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S.- CANADIAN
BORDER. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SIMILAR TO THE GEFS, BUT WITH HIGHER
AMPLITUDE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM, LEADING TO A FAIRLY DEEP EASTERN TROUGH. AS
IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE GEFS SOLUTION WAS SLIGHTLY FAVORED.

MOST ENSEMBLES FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA,
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE CONUS.
PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH, IN VIEW OF THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW
SUGGESTED BY THE CANADIAN MODEL, WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED IN THE
REGIONS MOST INFLUENCED BY THE EASTERN TROUGH.

THE POSSIBILITY OF A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ELEVATES
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH
TEXAS, ALTHOUGH THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS LOW.  RELATIVELY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHICH TOGETHER WITH
THE NORTHERN-STREAM RIDGE SHOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS EXCEPT FOR
PARTS OF WASHINGTON STATE. THE GEFS REFORECAST INDICATES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WITH
PROBABILITIES ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TOWARD HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR
CONSISTENCY WITH THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST. THE BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE INCREASES
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN ALASKA AS IT DIVERTS THE
PACIFIC STORM TRACK NORTHWARD.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 50% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11, AND 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: MUCH BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT.

FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
DECEMBER 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19721129 - 19581203 - 19931107 - 19911202 - 20081203


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19721128 - 19931106 - 19581202 - 19761201 - 20061203


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 03 - 07 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   B    B     E MONTANA   B    B     WYOMING     N    B
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    B    B     S DAKOTA    N    B
NEBRASKA    N    B     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        N    B     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   N    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 05 - 11 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   N    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    N    B     LOUISIANA   N    B     WISCONSIN   N    B
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI N    B     MICHIGAN    N    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     N    B     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    N    N     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  N    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$





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