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000
FXUS01 KWBC 240808
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
407 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VALID 12Z FRI OCT 24 2014 - 12Z SUN OCT 26 2014

***RAIN EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF IN NEW ENGLAND***

***UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST***

***RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN ELSEWHERE***


THE NOR`EASTER MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR NOVA SCOTIA HAS BROUGHT
SOAKING RAINS TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.  THE RAINY
WEATHER SHOULD NOW REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS EAST OF UPSTATE
NEW YORK, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN MAINE.  BY SATURDAY
MORNING, THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD PULL FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE
COAST TO TAKE MOST OF THE STEADY RAINFALL INTO EASTERN CANADA,
WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING OVER MAINE ON SATURDAY.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD EXPECT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ONSHORE FLOW AND A STRONG PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT SATURDAY.  CURRENTLY, A
STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL.  THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO
THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGHOUT SATURDAY AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION.  BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, A SUB-1000MB SURFACE LOW IN THE PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE
WEST COAST, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
COASTLINE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S., A STATIONARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.   FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC, COOL AND DRY FALL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 240808
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
407 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VALID 12Z FRI OCT 24 2014 - 12Z SUN OCT 26 2014

***RAIN EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF IN NEW ENGLAND***

***UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST***

***RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN ELSEWHERE***


THE NOR`EASTER MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR NOVA SCOTIA HAS BROUGHT
SOAKING RAINS TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.  THE RAINY
WEATHER SHOULD NOW REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS EAST OF UPSTATE
NEW YORK, WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN MAINE.  BY SATURDAY
MORNING, THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD PULL FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE
COAST TO TAKE MOST OF THE STEADY RAINFALL INTO EASTERN CANADA,
WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING OVER MAINE ON SATURDAY.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD EXPECT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ONSHORE FLOW AND A STRONG PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT SATURDAY.  CURRENTLY, A
STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL.  THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO
THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGHOUT SATURDAY AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION.  BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, A SUB-1000MB SURFACE LOW IN THE PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE
WEST COAST, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
COASTLINE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S., A STATIONARY FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.   FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC, COOL AND DRY FALL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 240700
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VALID 12Z MON OCT 27 2014 - 12Z FRI OCT 31 2014

OVERVIEW...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE LOWER 48
THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA...ADJACENT COASTAL RANGES AND
THE ROCKIES---SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME AND DEEP...ENERGETIC
CYCLONE SETTLES ALONG THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...A PROGRESSIVE SERIES OF CYCLONES MIGRATE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST.

UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
FOR DAYS 3-4...THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE CAPTURES THE RAPID PROGRESSION
OF REMNANT VORTICITY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH `ANA` CURRENTLY
INVOF 28N 170W. BY 28/12Z...THE BULK OF ITS MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY SETTLES OFF THE COAST OF VICTORIA ISLAND BC AND THE OLYMPIC
PENINSULA---HAVING BEEN DIRECTED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY A
MID-LATITUDE JET AXIS AND BENEATH THE BASE OF A SLOW-MOVING AND
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING CYCLONE ORIGINATING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF
ALASKA.

THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SETUP FOR INTENSE PERIODS OF JET-DRIVEN
RAINFALL WILL GET AN ASSIST FROM SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
130W ROTATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SYSTEM`S SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT.
ON DAY 5-6...THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA GETS AN
INFUSION OF MODIFIED-ARCTIC AIR FROM THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN
ALASKA...WITH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING WITH RESPECT
TO THE NEW ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 130W
FROM HAIDI GWAII SOUTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER. THE
24/12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO SOUTHERN BC AND THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA---AHEAD OF THE
RELOADING UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA.
IN TURN...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS/AMPLIFIES ALONG 140W AND
REMAINS ESSENTIALLY OFFSHORE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. THE 23/12Z DETERMINISTIC CANADIAN MAINTAINS A MORE
NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH AXIS WITH A MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS CONTINUING
A SOUTHEASTWARD SURGE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN. FOR NOW...A BLEND OF THE 23/12Z NAEFS/ECENS ALLOWS
FOR A TREND TOWARDS THE NEGATIVE-TILT ORIENTATION---ALBEIT A WEAK
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE ALONG 130W FROM 40N-50N LATITUDE.

IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
THE DETERMINISTIC 23/12Z GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF POINTS TO A
NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKING FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF OVER
NORTHEAST ONTARIO AS A CANADIAN ARCTIC AIRMASS CONGEALS INTO THE
BROAD WARM ADVECTION SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEYS. WHAT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...WILL BE THE
DEPTH AND ASSOCIATED STORM TRACK OF A MID-LEVEL ALBERTA CLIPPER
MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDERNEATH THE BASE OF THE CLOSED
UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE. BY DAY 6-7...THIS CLIPPER SLIDES A SECONDARY
SHOT OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE GREAT LAKES...GLIDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE---IS THE
INFUSION OF SUBTROPICAL ENERGY/MOISTURE AT JET-LEVEL (ON DAY 2)
GOING TO ACCURATELY DEPICT A SYSTEM---FROM BEGINNING TO END?

MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE 23/12Z GUIDANCE CYCLE APPEARED TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
EMERGING DETAILS OFF THE WEST COAST FOR A PROLONGED 36-HOUR TO
48-HOUR PERIOD OF JET-DRIVEN PRECIPITATION. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET MAINTAINS A QUASI-STATIONARY POSITION
PERPENDICULAR TO THE COASTAL RANGES OF NORTHERN OREGON AND WESTERN
WASHINGTON...AND THAT AGREEMENT TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM INTO A
MEDIUM-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH DOWNWIND OF THE ROCKIES. THE
CULMINATION OF A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN ONTARIO BY DAY 5...WAS
A REASONABLE CONCLUSION. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWED GOOD UTILITY
WITH BOTH FEATURES IN THIS PATTERN. THEIR UTILITY DWINDLES RATHER
QUICKLY AROUND THE 29/00Z TIME FRAME...WHEN A TROUGH IN WESTERN
ALASKA...BEGINS TO IMPINGE UPON THE QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH INVOF
SOUTHWEST CANADA AND ALTERS THE JET-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. THE EXIT
REGION OF THE UPPER-JET AXIS SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CONTINENT...AND THE `NEW` JET BEGINS TO REFORM IN
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...PRODUCING AMPLITUDE TO THE FLOW BETWEEN
130W AND 140W. LEANED UPON THE ECENS/NAEFS MEANS...WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE COLDER AIRMASS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO REPLENISH THE
WEST COAST AROUND DAY 7. SAME HOLDS TRUE IN THE EAST BEYOND DAY
5...USING THE ECENS/NAEFS BLENDS GIVES THE CLIPPER SYSTEM `ROOM`
TO ENTER THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW INVOF
85W...AND KEEP A MODERATELY-AMPLIFIED FLOW ALONG/EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS AT THE DAY 7 TIME FRAME.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE WEST COAST AND CASCADIA
FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER TO HUMBOLDT BAY...WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR
LARGE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE CASCADES AND ENTIRE CHAIN OF
VOLCANIC PEAKS FROM MT BAKER TO MT SHASTA.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PLAINS STATES DAYS 3-4...WITH
THESE POSITIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES MIGRATING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...EASTERN LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION/SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FOR DAYS 4-5. MODERATE PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED DEEP
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS PRECEDE THE FRONTAL MIGRATION FROM THE OZARKS
TO THE DELMARVA.

VOJTESAK




$$







000
FXUS01 KWBC 232056
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
456 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VALID 00Z FRI OCT 24 2014 - 00Z SUN OCT 26 2014

...RAIN EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF IN NEW ENGLAND...

...STORMY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

...SOAKING RAINS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...


THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE HAS BROUGHT SOAKING
RAINS TO THE REGION THE LAST FEW DAYS.  THE MODERATE SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING. THERE COULD BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR NEW ENGLAND WHICH COULD LEAD TO POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.
 HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.  SEE WPC`S
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PRODUCT FOR MORE INFORMATION.  BY FRIDAY
MORNING, THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN PULLING AWAY FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST; CONSEQUENTLY, THE MODERATE SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMETIME FRIDAY EVENING.

THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD EXPECT CONTINUOUS SHOWERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS SEVERAL FRONTS MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.  CURRENTLY, A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL.  A STATIONARY FRONT
WILL STAY DRAPED ALONG THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE PACIFIC COAST
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION.  BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING, A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN
THE PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST.  AS IT GETS CLOSER,
SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COASTLINE.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH
SATURDAY.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA.  THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL.


FANNING


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$







000
FXUS06 KWBC 231900
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU OCTOBER 23 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 29 - NOV 02, 2014

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IS EVIDENT IN THE MODEL FORECASTS OVER ALASKA AND THE
NORTH PACIFIC EVEN AT RELATIVELY EARLY LEAD TIMES. BY THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, BOTH
IN PHASE AND AMPLITUDE OF THE PREDICTED LONG WAVES. LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
PREDICTED CIRCULATION PATTERNS ARE FAIRLY COMMON IN AUTUMN, AS THE WESTERLIES
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT SOUTH, AND AS WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOONS GET CAUGHT UP INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION WELL UPSTREAM OF THE U.S. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MEAN FLOW. CONSIDERING THIS, SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TODAY`S RUNS
AND YESTERDAY`S RUNS, AND MAINTAINING REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAY`S
FORECAST, A LOW-AMPLITUDE FORECAST FLOW PATTERN IS THOUGHT TO BE APPROPRIATE IN
THIS CASE. SOMEWHAT HIGHER WEIGHTS IN THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT BLEND WERE GIVEN TO
THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH HAVE PROVIDED
SUPERIOR ANOMALY CORRELATION SCORES DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS. THE OFFICIAL
HEIGHT FORECAST FAVORS A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST, A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY, AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. IN ALASKA, CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS GENERALLY FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE, AND
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE IS GENERALLY FAVORED OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE.

THE MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CONUS LEADS TO ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NATION. THE 500-HPA TROUGH EXPECTED
NEAR THE WEST COAST INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, EXTENDING TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MOST OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH
FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHERE
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALLOWS COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH INTO THE REGION.

SOUTHWEST 500-HPA FLOW OVER MOST OF ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION,
WHILE BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE
PANHANDLE, UNDER NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW. TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST AND
THE ANTICIPATION OF AN ENHANCED PACIFIC JET STREAM FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR CALIFORNIA IS BASED MORE
HEAVILY ON THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SOLUTION, WHICH IS FAVORED OVER THE GFS AT
SHORTER TIME RANGES. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT, THE FAVORED AREA OF ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RESTRICTED TO FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION, DUE TO THE EXPECTED INFLUENCE
OF LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, DUE TO STALLED FRONTS OR PERHAPS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
YUCATAN REGION.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40%
OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: WELL BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN CANADIAN, ECMWF, AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS, AND THE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 31 - NOV 06, 2014

THE WEEK-2 FORECAST CIRCULATION PATTERN IS ALSO VERY UNCERTAIN OVER THE
PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA REGION, AS IT WAS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 0Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION DEPICTS A DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR WEST, WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT, ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER, THE OTHER
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS PREDICT A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE
DETERMINISTIC 0Z AND 6Z GFS RUNS ANTICIPATE AN AMPLIFIED WAVE PATTERN, WITH
DEEP TROUGHS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC AND NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD, AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL STATES. ONCE AGAIN, WITH SUCH WIDELY VARYING
500-HPA HEIGHTS, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS DEPICTED
TODAY FROM ALL THE MODELS AND TOOLS, IT WAS DECIDED TO LEAN SLIGHTLY TOWARDS
THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN 2-METER TEMPERATURES, GO WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE
PATTERN, AND MAINTAIN SUBSTANTIAL CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAY`S OFFICIAL WEEK-2
FORECAST. MAINTAINING CONTINUITY IN THE FORECAST EFFECTIVELY PLACES MORE WEIGHT
ON THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT ARE CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S RUNS, WHICH IS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE WIDELY VARYING GUIDANCE TODAY.

THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE FOR THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: WELL BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED HEIGHTS, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION PATTERNS.


FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20051028 - 19541019 - 19841010 - 19641101 - 19831103


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20051027 - 19841009 - 19541018 - 19621002 - 19831102


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 29 - NOV 02, 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    N    N     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    B    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 31 - NOV 06, 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   N    B     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      N    N
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    N    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$






000
FXUS06 KWBC 231900
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU OCTOBER 23 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 29 - NOV 02, 2014

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IS EVIDENT IN THE MODEL FORECASTS OVER ALASKA AND THE
NORTH PACIFIC EVEN AT RELATIVELY EARLY LEAD TIMES. BY THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, BOTH
IN PHASE AND AMPLITUDE OF THE PREDICTED LONG WAVES. LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
PREDICTED CIRCULATION PATTERNS ARE FAIRLY COMMON IN AUTUMN, AS THE WESTERLIES
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT SOUTH, AND AS WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOONS GET CAUGHT UP INTO
THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION WELL UPSTREAM OF THE U.S. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MEAN FLOW. CONSIDERING THIS, SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN TODAY`S RUNS
AND YESTERDAY`S RUNS, AND MAINTAINING REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAY`S
FORECAST, A LOW-AMPLITUDE FORECAST FLOW PATTERN IS THOUGHT TO BE APPROPRIATE IN
THIS CASE. SOMEWHAT HIGHER WEIGHTS IN THE OFFICIAL HEIGHT BLEND WERE GIVEN TO
THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH HAVE PROVIDED
SUPERIOR ANOMALY CORRELATION SCORES DURING THE PAST TWO MONTHS. THE OFFICIAL
HEIGHT FORECAST FAVORS A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST, A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY, AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. IN ALASKA, CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS GENERALLY FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE, AND
ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE IS GENERALLY FAVORED OVER SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE.

THE MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CONUS LEADS TO ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NATION. THE 500-HPA TROUGH EXPECTED
NEAR THE WEST COAST INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, EXTENDING TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. MOST OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH
FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEPT FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHERE
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALLOWS COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH INTO THE REGION.

SOUTHWEST 500-HPA FLOW OVER MOST OF ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION,
WHILE BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE
PANHANDLE, UNDER NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW. TROUGHING NEAR THE WEST COAST AND
THE ANTICIPATION OF AN ENHANCED PACIFIC JET STREAM FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA TO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR CALIFORNIA IS BASED MORE
HEAVILY ON THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SOLUTION, WHICH IS FAVORED OVER THE GFS AT
SHORTER TIME RANGES. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT, THE FAVORED AREA OF ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RESTRICTED TO FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. BELOW-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION, DUE TO THE EXPECTED INFLUENCE
OF LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, DUE TO STALLED FRONTS OR PERHAPS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
YUCATAN REGION.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40%
OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: WELL BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN CANADIAN, ECMWF, AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS, AND THE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 31 - NOV 06, 2014

THE WEEK-2 FORECAST CIRCULATION PATTERN IS ALSO VERY UNCERTAIN OVER THE
PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA REGION, AS IT WAS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 0Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION DEPICTS A DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR WEST, WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF IT, ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER, THE OTHER
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS PREDICT A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE
DETERMINISTIC 0Z AND 6Z GFS RUNS ANTICIPATE AN AMPLIFIED WAVE PATTERN, WITH
DEEP TROUGHS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC AND NEAR THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD, AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL STATES. ONCE AGAIN, WITH SUCH WIDELY VARYING
500-HPA HEIGHTS, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS DEPICTED
TODAY FROM ALL THE MODELS AND TOOLS, IT WAS DECIDED TO LEAN SLIGHTLY TOWARDS
THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN 2-METER TEMPERATURES, GO WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE
PATTERN, AND MAINTAIN SUBSTANTIAL CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAY`S OFFICIAL WEEK-2
FORECAST. MAINTAINING CONTINUITY IN THE FORECAST EFFECTIVELY PLACES MORE WEIGHT
ON THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT ARE CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY`S RUNS, WHICH IS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE WIDELY VARYING GUIDANCE TODAY.

THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE FOR THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: WELL BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED HEIGHTS, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION PATTERNS.


FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 20

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20051028 - 19541019 - 19841010 - 19641101 - 19831103


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20051027 - 19841009 - 19541018 - 19621002 - 19831102


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 29 - NOV 02, 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    N    N     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    B    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 31 - NOV 06, 2014

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   N    B     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      N    N
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    N    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    N    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$






000
FXCA20 KWBC 231849
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LARGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND IS
SUSTAINING A SURFACE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOLLOWS TO
ITS SOUTHWEST...EXTENDING FROM ALABAMA INTO THE GULF OF CAMPECHE.
THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH DISORGANIZED SURFACE LOWS OVER
YUCATAN AND CUBA. THESE LOWS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY...AND ARE THUS LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA/YUCATAN INTO
CUBA/BAHAMAS. MODELS CONTINUE UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND HELP IT TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY...PLACING A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND A LOW JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY FRIDAY EVENING TO THEN EXIT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MEANDER BETWEEN
SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN ON THURSDAY TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
HONDURAS BY SATURDAY. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL BE IMPORTANT FOCI FOR DEEP
CONVECTION AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY...EXPECTING LARGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS MOST OF CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS TO REACH 35-70MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 150-200MM.
OTHER REGION OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO
GUATEMALA/BELIZE WITH AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
75-125MM. ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND NORTHERN
YUCATAN...EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...EXPECTING LARGEST AMOUNTS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OVER THE
GULF OF HONDURAS WITH AMOUNTS OF 50-75MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
150-200MM. ACROSS CUBA EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 75-150MM. ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GUATEMALA EXPECTING MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. BY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...EXPECTING LARGEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMA OF 75-125MM/DAY. ACROSS
CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EXPECTING
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

ACROSS COLOMBIA...EXPECTING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA. AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTION ARE TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TO MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY.

OTHER AREA OF INTEREST ARE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A TUTT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. MODELS SHOW TUTT PERSISTING AND BECOMING FULLY DETACHED
FROM THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LIMIT THE COLD AIR
INFUSION INTO THE SYSTEM AND START WEAKENING IT...GRADUALLY
REDUCING ITS EFFECTS ON CONVECTION. AT LOW-LEVELS...TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AS IT IS
CROSSING THE ARC OF THE ANTILLES EARLY ON THURSDAY. WAVE
CONVECTION WILL HOWEVER ENTER THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE
TUTT...WHICH WILL LIMIT STRONGEST ACTIVITY TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...IN INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ. THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTING AMOUNTS 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
FROM ST.LUCIA INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AND AFTER SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
42W     44W    46W    48W    51W    53W    56W    58W     TW
62W     65W    67W    70W    72W    74W    75W    77W     TW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W WILL APPROACH FRENCH GUIANA DURING
SATURDAY. STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL HOWEVER REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
TUTT IN THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL DRAW THE ITCZ NORTHWARD.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W IS INTERACTING WITH TUTT AND PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH
EXPECTED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE WILL
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES INTO
VENEZUELA/SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...AS IT ENTERS THE CONVERGENT
SIDE OF TUTT MEANDERING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES/SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 231849
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LARGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND IS
SUSTAINING A SURFACE FRONT INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FOLLOWS TO
ITS SOUTHWEST...EXTENDING FROM ALABAMA INTO THE GULF OF CAMPECHE.
THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH DISORGANIZED SURFACE LOWS OVER
YUCATAN AND CUBA. THESE LOWS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY...AND ARE THUS LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS
STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA/YUCATAN INTO
CUBA/BAHAMAS. MODELS CONTINUE UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND HELP IT TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY...PLACING A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND A LOW JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY FRIDAY EVENING TO THEN EXIT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MEANDER BETWEEN
SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN ON THURSDAY TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
HONDURAS BY SATURDAY. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL BE IMPORTANT FOCI FOR DEEP
CONVECTION AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY...EXPECTING LARGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS MOST OF CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS TO REACH 35-70MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 150-200MM.
OTHER REGION OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO
GUATEMALA/BELIZE WITH AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
75-125MM. ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND NORTHERN
YUCATAN...EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...EXPECTING LARGEST AMOUNTS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OVER THE
GULF OF HONDURAS WITH AMOUNTS OF 50-75MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
150-200MM. ACROSS CUBA EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 75-150MM. ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GUATEMALA EXPECTING MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. BY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...EXPECTING LARGEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMA OF 75-125MM/DAY. ACROSS
CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EXPECTING
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.

ACROSS COLOMBIA...EXPECTING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA. AMOUNTS IN
CONVECTION ARE TO INCREASE GRADUALLY TO MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY.

OTHER AREA OF INTEREST ARE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A TUTT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. MODELS SHOW TUTT PERSISTING AND BECOMING FULLY DETACHED
FROM THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LIMIT THE COLD AIR
INFUSION INTO THE SYSTEM AND START WEAKENING IT...GRADUALLY
REDUCING ITS EFFECTS ON CONVECTION. AT LOW-LEVELS...TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AS IT IS
CROSSING THE ARC OF THE ANTILLES EARLY ON THURSDAY. WAVE
CONVECTION WILL HOWEVER ENTER THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE
TUTT...WHICH WILL LIMIT STRONGEST ACTIVITY TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...IN INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ. THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTING AMOUNTS 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
FROM ST.LUCIA INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AND AFTER SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL  24     36     48     60     72     84     96     TYPE
42W     44W    46W    48W    51W    53W    56W    58W     TW
62W     65W    67W    70W    72W    74W    75W    77W     TW

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W WILL APPROACH FRENCH GUIANA DURING
SATURDAY. STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL HOWEVER REMAIN OFFSHORE AS
TUTT IN THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL DRAW THE ITCZ NORTHWARD.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W IS INTERACTING WITH TUTT AND PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH
EXPECTED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE WILL
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES INTO
VENEZUELA/SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...AS IT ENTERS THE CONVERGENT
SIDE OF TUTT MEANDERING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES/SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$







000
FXSA20 KWBC 231630
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1230 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

MODEL DISCUSSION (VALID FROM OCTOBER 23 AT 00UTC): GLOBAL MODELS
AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING FORECAST
EVOLUTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH RESPECT TO
PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEMS
SOUTH OF 40S AFTER 96-108 HRS..

EMBEDDED IN A TIGHT BELT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL ENTER TIERRA DEL FUEGO LATER TODAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY.
AMOUNTS ARE TO DECREASE AFTERWARDS WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN
SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT CHILE AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARGENTINA IS A
LARGE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY BLOCKED TO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AROUND 90W. THIS TROUGH WILL START MOVING TOWARDS THE
CONTINENT DURING SATURDAY...CROSSING THE ANDES DURING SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. MODELS ARE FORECASTING A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING TO
THE EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AND DEVELOP STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AND HEIGHT FALLS EXCEEDING 100
GPM/DAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN AXIS. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS BUILDING ACROSS CENTRAL ARGENTINA. ALTHOUGH THE
INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME AS IN OTHER CASES...THE
DYNAMICS WILL BE ROBUST ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SEVERE CONVECTION AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECTING LOCALIZED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 40-80MM/DAY
IN STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING SUNDAY ACROSS LA
PAMPA AND SOUTHWESTERN BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN RAPIDLY MOVE TO EXTEND ALONG THE RIO DE LA PLATA-CORDOBA
REGIONS BY MONDAY EVENING. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE
SIMILAR AMOUNTS WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE CELLS.

NORTH ACROSS THE CONTINENT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ANDES. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTHERN BOLIVIA AND
NORTHWESTERN ARGENTINA. LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE
ENHANCING OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT AND FEEDING DEVELOPING STORMS...TO
SUSTAIN MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY FROM TUCUMAN/SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO
INTO THE CHACO PARAGUAYO AND SOUTHERN BOLIVIA THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AFTERWARDS TO CONTINUE
VENTILATING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PARAGUAY INTO
MOST OF THE BOLIVIAN LOWLANDS AND WESTERN BRASIL. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...WITH FOCUS
OF CONVECTION GRADUALLY MEANDERING NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN
BRASIL. OTHER REGION OF ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL BE THE NORTHEASTERN
AMAZON COVERING MOST OF PARA/EASTERN AMAZONAS INTO PARTS OF
MARANHAO AND TOCANTINS. HERE...VENTILATION WILL BE FAVORABLE AS
THE REGION WILL LIE UNDER THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN BETWEEN A BROAD
CAVADO DO NORDESTE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN BRASIL...AND A RETREATING
RIDGE TO THE WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN AMAZON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY EARLY IN THE CYCLE...GRADUALLY CONSTRAINING
TO CENTRAL AMAZONIA AS THE FORECAST CYCLE PROGRESSES. AN
ACTIVATION IS ALSO EXPECTED IN SOUTHEASTERN BRASIL AS SOUTHERN
TIER OF AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL ENHANCE
VENTILATION AND INTERACT WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUILDING ACROSS
GOIAS/MINAS GERAIS/ESPIRITO SANTO/EASTERN RIO DO JANEIRO.
EXPECTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALWAYS
POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

CAROCA...DMC (CHILE)
DURAN...SENAHMI (PERU)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$







000
FXUS02 KWBC 231520
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1119 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VALID 12Z SUN OCT 26 2014 - 12Z THU OCT 30 2014


...GUIDANCE EVALUATION...

THE 00Z-06Z GFS HAVE ONE OF THE LESS LIKELY PACIFIC/WRN NOAM SOLNS
ALOFT RESULTING FROM A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE PERSISTENT CLOSED LOW NEAR 63N 180W SUNDAY 26 OCT.  AS
A RESULT OF THE AMPLIFIED WAVE...THE 00-06Z GFS PRODUCES A CLOSED
LOW NEAR 49N 151 00Z WED 29 OCT...WITH THE ECMWF/CANADIAN GLOBAL
MODELS FURTHER NORTHEAST.

THE MULTI-DAY ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SUGGESTING A CORE OF POSITIVE HGT
ANOMALIES TO THE SW OF ALASKA AND ALEUTIANS.  TELECONNECTIONS
RELATIVE TO THIS FEATURE FAVOR A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH NEARING
THE PAC NW COAST.  THE 00Z/CANADIAN AND ECMWF MEANS TRANSITION
TOWARDS THIS PATTERN TO PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THESE
MEANS VERSUS THE 00-06Z GFS AND 00-06Z GEFS MEAN.

THE CLOSED LOW DEVELOPED BY THE 00-06Z GFS RESULTS IN SLOWER
FORWARD MOTION AND TROUGH POSITION FURTHER WEST.  PREFER TO WAIT
UNTIL OTHER MODEL/ENSEMBLES MOVE TOWARDS THIS POSITION BEFORE
GIVING MUCH CREDENCE TO THE GFS FCST.
THE FINAL FCSTS BLENDED THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THE
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN TIMING.  THE 00Z CANADIAN GLOBAL SFC LOW
PRESSURE MATCHED THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...BUT WAS OUT OF PHASE WITH OTHER FORECASTS UPSTREAM IN
THE PACIFIC AND DOWNSTREAM IN THE US...SO THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS NOT
USED ELSEWHERE.

THE 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE COME INTO EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON
TRACKS FOR THE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF ANA...SO A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WAS USED
DAYS 3-5.
THE 00Z ECMWF WAS AN OUTLIER WITH ITS INTENSE LOW PERSISTING JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST OF CANADA...SO THE MEAN WAS USED TO MITIGATE
THE UNCERTAINTY.

THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN US DAYS 3-5...WHERE A 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF BLEND WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE 00Z GEFS/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WAS USED. AGREEMENT
IS GOOD ON LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS AND MOVING INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY MONDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES AND
ONTARIO TUE, WITH A TRAILING FRONT MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
FRONT THEN PROGRESSES DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE LAKES AND NORTHEAST,
WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION WEAKENING FURTHER SOUTH AS THERE ISN`T
MUCH IN THE WAY OF HEIGHT/PRESSURES FALLS IN THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST NEXT WED/THU.

THE 06Z GFS/GEFS GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY NEXT THU 30 OCT APPEARS TO BE A DOMINO
EFFECT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN PACIFIC
PATTERN...WITH CONFIDENCE LOW IN THESE SOLUTIONS.
ELSEWHERE... A CONSENSUS LOOKS GOOD FOR A CLOSED LOW DEPARTING NRN
NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

AN AREA FROM THE CNTRL/S-CNTRL PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE MID-UPPER MS
VALLEY INTO THE
GRTLKS SHOULD BE FAVORED FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING A PERIOD
CNTRD AROUND TUE.  CONTINUE TO EXPECT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT WITH A COUPLE OF DAYS OF PLUS 10-20F
ANOMALIES FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND INTO
THE TN VALLEY/OH VALLEY.  THE NEGATIVE TEMP ANOMALIES ARE MUCH
MORE LIMITED IN SCOPE...FOCUSING ON THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
ROCKIES DAYS 4-5 BEFORE THE AIRMASS WARMS AND REVERTS CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES DAYS 6/7.  TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD NEXT THU 30 OCT.

ON WED THE SHOWERS/STORMS PROGRESS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY/LOWER MS VALLEY AND THEN THE SHOWERS REACH THE EAST COAST
ON THU.

MSTR AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE PAC NW/NORTHWEST CA
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE FORMING FROM THE EXTRATROPICAL MERGER OF
ANA WITH THE MID-LATITUDE PAC SYSTEM. SHOWERS EXTEND INLAND INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUN.  ONCE THE MEAN TROUGH AND POTENTIAL
EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW APPROACH THE NORTHWEST NEXT THU 30
OCT...SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHERN CA
WED-THU.

NO ARCTIC INTRUSIONS SEEM LIKELY FOR SOME TIME TO COME...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT  FOR HEAVY SNOW IN THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.

PETERSEN/RAUSCH

$$







000
FXSA20 KWBC 231331
PMDSA

SOUTH AMERICA SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
931 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

SYNOPSIS (VALID FROM OCTOBER 23 AT 00UTC): AT UPPER LEVELS...AN
ANTICYCLONE CENTERS OFF THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN PERU WHILE A
BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ALAGOAS/PERNAMBUCO IN BRASIL INTO THE
AMAZON DELTA AND OFF THE COASTS OF AMAPA. THIS IS LEADING TO THE
BEST VENTILATION ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF MARANHAO IN BRASIL INTO
PARA AND EASTERN AMAZONAS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS
EASTERN MATO GROSSO-GOIAS INTO SOUTHERN PARA. THIS TROUGH IS
VENTILATING CONVECTION MOSTLY ACROSS EASTERN MATO GROSSO AND
GOIAS. A THIRD TROUGH IS CROSSING THE ANDES FROM NORTHERN
ARGENTINA INTO CENTRAL PERU. THIS TROUGH IS VENTILATING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ANDES/LAKE TITICACA REGION...AND
IN EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ANDES IN NORTHWESTERN
ARGENTINA/SOUTHERN BOLIVIA.

AT 250 HPA...THE JET ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN POLAR JET
EXTENDING ALONG 65S 109W...A 150KT MAXIMA AT 59S 90W...56S
76W...EXITING AT 58S 55W. THE NORTHERN POLAR JET FORMS AT 28S
107QW ALONG A 127KT MAXIMA AT 29S 90W...41S 80W...A 150KT MAXIMA
AT 45S 69W...A 166KT MAXIMA AT 45S 49W...41S 34W...EXITING AT 33S
28W. A BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS ALONG 23S 110W...25S
97W...EXITING AT 28S 85W.

AT 500 HPA...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERS AT 32S 97W AND IS MOVING
VERY LITTLE. TO THE EAST...A RIDGE CENTERS ON A HIGH OVER NORTHERN
URUGUAY...WHILE A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PRESSING FROM THE EAST
EXTENDING ALONG THE ANDES OF NORTHERN ARGENTINA INTO SOUTHWESTERN
BOLIVIA. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
APPROACHING THE DRAKE PASSAGE FOCUSING ITS ENERGY TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF TIERRA DEL FUEGO.

AT LOW LEVELS...A 964 HPA LOW AT 67S 73W EXTENDS A FRONT INTO 61S
66W...56S 72W...52S 82W. A 1006 HPA LOW AT 42S 45W EXTENDS A FRONT
ALONG 39S 46W...38S 53W...BUENOS AIRES PROVINCE...A 1014 HPA LOW
AT 38S 69W...32S 68W. A 1025 HPA HIGH CENTERS AT 31S 38W. A 1018
HPA LOW AT 32S 12W EXTENDED A FRONT ALONG 28S 15W...24S 22W...20S
30W...SOUTHERN BAHIA IN BRASIL. RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING IN PARTS OF
BAHIA IN BRASIL.

CAROCA...DMC (CHILE)
DURAN...SENAMHI (PERU)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)


$$







000
FXCA20 KWBC 231147
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
746 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. A TUTT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO GUADELOUPE AND THEN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE THAT CENTERS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
JAMAICA IS EXTENDING INTO HISPANIOLA AND NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE
TUTT IS INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS CROSSING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARDS
LIE...HOWEVER...UNDER THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE TUTT AND UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR
MASS. THIS IS LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER.

TUTT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND FORM
A CLOSED LOW OVER MARTINIQUE/ST LUCIA DURING SUNDAY. PUERTO RICO
AND THE USVI ARE TO PERSIST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CONVERGENT
SIDE OF THE TUTT AND MOISTURE LIMITED. TROPICAL WAVE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONSTRAIN TO AREAS SOUTH OF 15N...SPARING PUERTO0 RICO
AND THE USVI FROM SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THUS FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONSTRAINING TO
THE 05-10MM/DAY RANGE.

JN BAPTISTE...MS (SAINT LUCIA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$







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