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000
SXUS43 KTOP 180443
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

CONFIDENCE IN IFR VSBY IS IS DIMINISHING AS OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN AND BACKED OFF ON VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND WINDS HAVE NOT
BEEN AS LIGHT AS EXPECTED. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SOME MVFR VSBY TO OCCUR...BUT WILL REMOVE
THE MENTION OF IFR VSBY. DO NOT HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN THE NAM
GENERATING MID DAY CONVECTION IN SOUTHEASTERN KS. THERE IS NO GOOD
EXPLANATION FOR THE NAMS DISJOINTED COOLING OF MID LEVEL TEMPS
WHICH WEAKENS THE CAP. THE RAP ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS THE CAP
HOLDING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND 90. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE TERMINALS DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          831 PM

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 603 PM):        200FT  127/10 MPH
                                      400FT  123/12 MPH
                                      600FT  127/11 MPH
                                      800FT  132/10 MPH
                                     1000FT  147/09 MPH
                                     1500FT  163/10 MPH
                                     2000FT  160/11 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM):      SURFACE 130/07 MPH
                                      105FT  130/11 MPH
                                      259FT  132/18 MPH
                                      531FT  140/26 MPH
                                      939FT  143/23 MPH
                                     1470FT  150/19 MPH
                                     2114FT  173/16 MPH
                                     2836FT  191/20 MPH
                                     3635FT  199/23 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM):      SURFACE 139/07 MPH
                                      102FT  139/10 MPH
                                      258FT  142/17 MPH
                                      531FT  148/26 MPH
                                      935FT  151/25 MPH
                                     1467FT  157/21 MPH
                                     2110FT  181/21 MPH
                                     2831FT  188/22 MPH
                                     3629FT  199/23 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM):        21 129/11 MPH
                                      105FT  131/14 MPH
                                      262FT  133/16 MPH
                                      535FT  145/27 MPH
                                      943FT  151/25 MPH
                                     1467FT  157/21 MPH
                                     2110FT  181/21 MPH
                                     2831FT  188/22 MPH
                                     3629FT  199/23 MPH

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        607 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  130/03 MPH
                    8 AM  130/08 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$









000
SXUS43 KTOP 172324
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
624 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING CAPPED WITH RAISING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. SO THERE SHOULD BE NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
THINK FOG FORMATION IS PROBABLE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
COOL NEAR THE DEWPOINT TEMP BEFORE THE STRATUS HAS A CHANCE TO
MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS. AND WITH DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM IN THE LOWER
60S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE
HAVE INCLUDED SOME IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE MIXED BY 14Z ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          831 PM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           7 PM  150/09 MPH
                                     8 PM  140/08 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 603 PM):        200FT  127/10 MPH
                                      400FT  123/12 MPH
                                      600FT  127/11 MPH
                                      800FT  132/10 MPH
                                     1000FT  147/09 MPH
                                     1500FT  163/10 MPH
                                     2000FT  160/11 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 135/09 MPH
                                       95FT  135/10 MPH
                                      256FT  135/11 MPH
                                      531FT  136/11 MPH
                                      945FT  137/11 MPH
                                     1480FT  137/11 MPH
                                     2131FT  137/11 MPH
                                     2853FT  138/11 MPH
                                     3654FT  142/10 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACE 139/11 MPH
                                       98FT  139/13 MPH
                                      256FT  139/13 MPH
                                      535FT  140/13 MPH
                                      946FT  140/14 MPH
                                     1484FT  141/14 MPH
                                     2133FT  141/14 MPH
                                     2856FT  142/14 MPH
                                     3658FT  147/11 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 141/10 MPH
                                      101FT  140/13 MPH
                                      262FT  141/15 MPH
                                      540FT  142/15 MPH
                                      951FT  140/14 MPH
                                     1484FT  141/14 MPH
                                     2133FT  141/14 MPH
                                     2856FT  142/14 MPH
                                     3658FT  147/11 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                7 PM  2911 FT
                                     8 PM  2724 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        607 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  130/06 MPH
                    8 AM  130/09 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$









000
SXUS43 KTOP 171754
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1254 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR STRATOCU THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH MAY SCATTER OR CLEAR AFT LOSS OF HEATING.
HOWEVER...DO EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR STRATUS DECK AND MVFR VSBYS IN
BR TO RETURN WITHIN AXIS OF MOIST SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW AFT
10-11Z...THEN VFR AFT 14Z AS CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVE. WILL KEEP
SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS UNTIL AFT 14Z WHEN STRONGER SFC WINDS
DEVELOP.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          831 PM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           6 PM  150/08 MPH
                                     8 PM  150/08 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 620 AM):        200FT  178/05 MPH
                                      400FT  182/07 MPH
                                      600FT  188/10 MPH
                                      800FT  196/12 MPH
                                     1000FT  201/10 MPH
                                     1500FT  169/05 MPH
                                     2000FT  155/03 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 141/10 MPH
                                       89FT  141/12 MPH
                                      251FT  142/12 MPH
                                      531FT  142/13 MPH
                                      944FT  142/13 MPH
                                     1482FT  143/13 MPH
                                     2133FT  143/13 MPH
                                     2860FT  144/13 MPH
                                     3662FT  144/13 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACE 142/11 MPH
                                       95FT  143/13 MPH
                                      257FT  143/14 MPH
                                      535FT  143/15 MPH
                                      948FT  144/15 MPH
                                     1487FT  143/15 MPH
                                     2142FT  144/15 MPH
                                     2867FT  145/15 MPH
                                     3673FT  146/11 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 153/11 MPH
                                       95FT  153/14 MPH
                                      257FT  153/15 MPH
                                      534FT  153/16 MPH
                                      951FT  144/15 MPH
                                     1487FT  143/15 MPH
                                     2142FT  144/15 MPH
                                     2867FT  145/15 MPH
                                     3673FT  146/11 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                6 PM  3113 FT
                                     8 PM  2803 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        607 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  140/05 MPH
                    8 AM  130/09 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$









000
SXUS43 KTOP 171239
RECTOP

MORNING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
739 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

TOP/FOE BOTH HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISBY MOVING INTO THE
AREA ATTM. THINK IT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH AS THE SUN COMES UP TO
RAISE THE CIGS UP AND SCATTER IT OUT...ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS
SUGGEST IT STAYS CLOUDY MUCH OF THE DAY. THINK THE DECK IS TOO
SHALLOW AND SUN TOO STRONG FOR THIS AND WILL SCATTER OUT AROUND
14/15Z.

.THIS MORNING...
    SUNRISE:                         608 AM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           8 AM  190/05 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 620 AM):        200FT  178/05 MPH
                                      400FT  182/07 MPH
                                      600FT  188/10 MPH
                                      800FT  196/12 MPH
                                     1000FT  201/10 MPH
                                     1500FT  169/05 MPH
                                     2000FT  155/03 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM):      SURFACE 153/05 MPH
                                       91FT  158/08 MPH
                                      246FT  168/13 MPH
                                      515FT  177/14 MPH
                                      915FT  180/11 MPH
                                     1441FT  179/09 MPH
                                     2079FT  182/08 MPH
                                     2790FT  178/08 MPH
                                     3580FT  171/10 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM):      SURFACE 173/06 MPH
                                       85FT  176/07 MPH
                                      240FT  176/07 MPH
                                      513FT  192/12 MPH
                                      911FT  198/10 MPH
                                     1435FT  190/08 MPH
                                     2072FT  192/07 MPH
                                     2784FT  198/07 MPH
                                     3572FT  195/08 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM):      SURFACE 183/04 MPH
                                       85FT  185/05 MPH
                                      241FT  187/05 MPH
                                      511FT  190/07 MPH
                                      912FT  198/10 MPH
                                     1435FT  190/08 MPH
                                     2072FT  192/07 MPH
                                     2784FT  198/07 MPH
                                     3572FT  195/08 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                8 AM  1918 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:         831 PM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 PM  150/08 MPH
                    8 PM  150/08 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$









000
SXUS43 KTOP 170621
RECTOP

MORNING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
121 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF TOP/FOE AT 05Z AND
SHOULD INCREASE IN SIZE...AND EVENTUALLY BUILD DOWN TO MVFR THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT INITIAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN TO IFR AT TOP/FOE WHILE MHK WILL REMAIN VFR
LONGER ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF CLOUDS. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THIS TAF REGARDING EVENTUAL CIG HEIGHTS AND VIS
RESTRICTIONS...AS WELL AS OVERALL COVERAGE AND PREVALENCE OF THE
FEATURES. HAVE TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR
REDUCED CONDITIONS WITHIN THE TAF.

.THIS MORNING...
    SUNRISE:                         609 AM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           6 AM  150/03 MPH
                                     8 AM  160/05 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 605 PM):        200FT  158/11 MPH
                                      400FT  156/13 MPH
                                      600FT  159/13 MPH
                                      800FT  158/12 MPH
                                     1000FT  148/10 MPH
                                     1500FT  155/10 MPH
                                     2000FT  156/09 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM):      SURFACE 150/05 MPH
                                       91FT  156/09 MPH
                                      243FT  165/13 MPH
                                      513FT  175/16 MPH
                                      913FT  175/10 MPH
                                     1439FT  140/05 MPH
                                     2077FT  116/07 MPH
                                     2790FT  110/09 MPH
                                     3582FT  115/10 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM):      SURFACE 149/04 MPH
                                       91FT  153/06 MPH
                                      246FT  160/11 MPH
                                      515FT  176/13 MPH
                                      914FT  184/10 MPH
                                     1439FT  151/04 MPH
                                     2075FT  105/05 MPH
                                     2787FT  098/08 MPH
                                     3577FT  104/08 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM):      SURFACE 146/06 MPH
                                       94FT  146/07 MPH
                                      249FT  146/08 MPH
                                      518FT  165/12 MPH
                                      916FT  184/10 MPH
                                     1439FT  151/04 MPH
                                     2075FT  105/05 MPH
                                     2787FT  098/08 MPH
                                     3577FT  104/08 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                6 AM  1663 FT
                                     8 AM  1874 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:         830 PM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 PM  150/09 MPH
                    8 PM  150/08 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$









000
SXUS43 KTOP 162329
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
629 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST 8 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. DO EXPECT MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR...CIG/VIS TO BUILD INTO TOP/FOE BETWEEN 08Z AND
10Z. THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHORTER LIVED VIS BELOW 1SM
AT TOP/FOE AS WELL. ALSO EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BUILD INTO
MHK...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER THE LOWER CIG/VIS
CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS MHK. ANY CIGS SHOULD SCATTER
TO VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 15Z WITH VFR PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          830 PM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           7 PM  140/07 MPH
                                     8 PM  130/07 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 605 PM):        200FT  158/11 MPH
                                      400FT  156/13 MPH
                                      600FT  159/13 MPH
                                      800FT  158/12 MPH
                                     1000FT  148/10 MPH
                                     1500FT  155/10 MPH
                                     2000FT  156/09 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 140/12 MPH
                                       92FT  139/14 MPH
                                      250FT  139/15 MPH
                                      525FT  139/15 MPH
                                      939FT  139/15 MPH
                                     1474FT  140/16 MPH
                                     2122FT  140/15 MPH
                                     2842FT  140/15 MPH
                                     3640FT  145/15 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACE 146/12 MPH
                                       95FT  146/14 MPH
                                      253FT  146/15 MPH
                                      528FT  146/16 MPH
                                      942FT  147/16 MPH
                                     1477FT  147/16 MPH
                                     2125FT  147/16 MPH
                                     2844FT  147/16 MPH
                                     3642FT  165/12 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 150/10 MPH
                                       95FT  151/13 MPH
                                      252FT  151/14 MPH
                                      530FT  151/15 MPH
                                      940FT  147/16 MPH
                                     1477FT  147/16 MPH
                                     2125FT  147/16 MPH
                                     2844FT  147/16 MPH
                                     3642FT  165/12 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                7 PM  2997 FT
                                     8 PM  2747 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        608 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  140/03 MPH
                    8 AM  140/05 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$









000
SXUS43 KTOP 161738
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1238 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z...BUT
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY 10Z IN MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS. AT THIS POINT DETAILS IN A CIG OR VIS
ISSUE ARE UNCERTAIN...AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON SMALL SCALE TRENDS
AS THIS PERIOD NEARS...BUT IFR EITHER WAY SEEMS QUITE LIKELY.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY 15Z.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          830 PM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           6 PM  140/10 MPH
                                     8 PM  140/09 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 601 AM):        200FT  165/07 MPH
                                      400FT  166/10 MPH
                                      600FT  166/09 MPH
                                      800FT  170/08 MPH
                                     1000FT  200/06 MPH
                                     1500FT  207/10 MPH
                                     2000FT  220/12 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 119/07 MPH
                                       80FT  120/08 MPH
                                      239FT  119/08 MPH
                                      515FT  119/08 MPH
                                      928FT  119/08 MPH
                                     1465FT  119/08 MPH
                                     2116FT  119/08 MPH
                                     2838FT  119/08 MPH
                                     3636FT  119/08 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACE 113/10 MPH
                                       80FT  113/12 MPH
                                      239FT  113/13 MPH
                                      515FT  113/13 MPH
                                      928FT  113/13 MPH
                                     1466FT  113/13 MPH
                                     2114FT  113/13 MPH
                                     2836FT  113/13 MPH
                                     3638FT  112/13 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 118/12 MPH
                                       86FT  118/15 MPH
                                      244FT  118/16 MPH
                                      521FT  118/17 MPH
                                      933FT  113/13 MPH
                                     1466FT  113/13 MPH
                                     2114FT  113/13 MPH
                                     2836FT  113/13 MPH
                                     3638FT  112/13 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                6 PM  3186 FT
                                     8 PM  2876 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        608 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  140/05 MPH
                    8 AM  140/05 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$









000
SXUS43 KTOP 161142
RECTOP

MORNING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
642 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

EARLY MORNING VSBY REDUCTION DUE TO PATCHY FOG SHOULD IMPROVE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIKE THIS MORNING
MODELS ARE HINTING AT MORE REDUCED VSBY AT THE TERMINAL SITES FOR
FRIDAY MORNING.

JL

.THIS MORNING...
    SUNRISE:                         609 AM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           7 AM  140/03 MPH
                                     8 AM  140/05 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 601 AM):        200FT  165/07 MPH
                                      400FT  166/10 MPH
                                      600FT  166/09 MPH
                                      800FT  170/08 MPH
                                     1000FT  200/06 MPH
                                     1500FT  207/10 MPH
                                     2000FT  220/12 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM):      SURFACE 099/04 MPH
                                       88FT  096/08 MPH
                                      241FT  093/08 MPH
                                      513FT  090/05 MPH
                                      918FT  075/03 MPH
                                     1444FT  077/02 MPH
                                     2084FT  143/03 MPH
                                     2795FT  138/08 MPH
                                     3590FT  132/11 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM):      SURFACE 117/07 MPH
                                       85FT  116/09 MPH
                                      242FT  117/10 MPH
                                      514FT  116/11 MPH
                                      915FT  112/09 MPH
                                     1442FT  111/09 MPH
                                     2079FT  119/10 MPH
                                     2794FT  115/13 MPH
                                     3589FT  111/15 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM):      SURFACE 124/08 MPH
                                       88FT  124/09 MPH
                                      243FT  124/10 MPH
                                      516FT  124/10 MPH
                                      921FT  112/09 MPH
                                     1442FT  111/09 MPH
                                     2079FT  119/10 MPH
                                     2794FT  115/13 MPH
                                     3589FT  111/15 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                7 AM  2165 FT
                                     8 AM  2302 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:         830 PM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 PM  140/10 MPH
                    8 PM  140/09 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$









000
SXUS43 KTOP 160511
RECTOP

MORNING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1211 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

VFR FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF BUT STRATUS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM LENDS MORE CONFIDENCE TO A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIG/VIS WITH A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS AS WELL. MOST LIKELY TIME
FRAME FOR REDUCED CIGS/VIS WILL FALL BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...WITH
POTENTIAL TO LAST BEYOND 15Z...PARTICULARLY AT TOP/FOE. MAIN
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN IF/HOW FAST CIGS WILL DECREASE INTO IFR AND
HOW LONG CIGS WILL HANG AROUND BEFORE BREAKING UP.

BARJENBRUCH

.THIS MORNING...
    SUNRISE:                         609 AM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           6 AM  150/03 MPH
                                     8 AM  130/03 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 610 PM):        200FT  201/20 MPH
                                      400FT  194/24 MPH
                                      600FT  194/24 MPH
                                      800FT  196/24 MPH
                                     1000FT  199/23 MPH
                                     1500FT  202/23 MPH
                                     2000FT  199/22 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM):      SURFACE 160/07 MPH
                                       91FT  163/09 MPH
                                      245FT  165/10 MPH
                                      517FT  170/12 MPH
                                      922FT  173/13 MPH
                                     1449FT  157/08 MPH
                                     2088FT  101/07 MPH
                                     2803FT  076/11 MPH
                                     3599FT  068/16 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM):      SURFACE 122/03 MPH
                                       94FT  131/05 MPH
                                      248FT  135/06 MPH
                                      520FT  152/08 MPH
                                      925FT  149/08 MPH
                                     1452FT  105/08 MPH
                                     2090FT  078/13 MPH
                                     2806FT  068/17 MPH
                                     3603FT  064/19 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM):      SURFACE 135/04 MPH
                                       94FT  133/05 MPH
                                      251FT  131/05 MPH
                                      524FT  126/05 MPH
                                      925FT  149/08 MPH
                                     1452FT  105/08 MPH
                                     2090FT  078/13 MPH
                                     2806FT  068/17 MPH
                                     3603FT  064/19 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                6 AM  1854 FT
                                     8 AM  2056 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:         829 PM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 PM  150/10 MPH
                    8 PM  150/10G17 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$









000
SXUS43 KTOP 152326
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
626 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE BY 02Z WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIG/VIS AFTER 09Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
AT TOP/FOE ALTHOUGH IT COULD BUILD AS FAR WEST AS MHK. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO REMAIN SCATTERED...BUT ALSO SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THE BKN CIGS TO BUILD IN AS IFR. FOR NOW WILL HIT A
FEW HOURS OF LOW END MVFR...BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          829 PM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           7 PM  180/13 MPH
                                     8 PM  180/10 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 610 PM):        200FT  201/20 MPH
                                      400FT  194/24 MPH
                                      600FT  194/24 MPH
                                      800FT  196/24 MPH
                                     1000FT  199/23 MPH
                                     1500FT  202/23 MPH
                                     2000FT  199/22 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 181/11 MPH
                                      104FT  181/13 MPH
                                      268FT  182/14 MPH
                                      549FT  182/14 MPH
                                      967FT  183/15 MPH
                                     1511FT  183/15 MPH
                                     2167FT  184/14 MPH
                                     2903FT  185/14 MPH
                                     3711FT  185/14 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):        23 179/13 MPH
                                      110FT  179/16 MPH
                                      271FT  179/17 MPH
                                      552FT  180/17 MPH
                                      970FT  180/17 MPH
                                     1514FT  181/18 MPH
                                     2170FT  181/17 MPH
                                     2902FT  182/17 MPH
                                     3710FT  182/17 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 186/14 MPH
                                       98FT  186/18 MPH
                                      259FT  186/22 MPH
                                      538FT  187/24 MPH
                                      955FT  180/17 MPH
                                     1514FT  181/18 MPH
                                     2170FT  181/17 MPH
                                     2902FT  182/17 MPH
                                     3710FT  182/17 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                7 PM  3355 FT
                                     8 PM  3109 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        609 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  160/03 MPH
                    8 AM  150/03 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$









000
SXUS43 KTOP 151733
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS ARE FALLING WITH BOUNDARY
STAYING NORTH...AND FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE INCLUSION. MAY
SEE GUSTS NEAR 20KT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT THINK THEY WILL
BE THE EXCEPTION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES AND PERHAPS CEILINGS AS WELL
DEVELOPING. WILL KEEP MVFR FORECAST AT THIS POINT BUT FURTHER
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          829 PM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           6 PM  180/13 MPH
                                     8 PM  180/12 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 602 AM):        200FT  205/11 MPH
                                      400FT  205/17 MPH
                                      600FT  211/23 MPH
                                      800FT  216/29 MPH
                                     1000FT  227/46 MPH
                                     1500FT  242/54 MPH
                                     2000FT  244/53 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 178/11 MPH
                                      102FT  179/13 MPH
                                      266FT  179/14 MPH
                                      548FT  180/15 MPH
                                      965FT  180/15 MPH
                                     1509FT  181/15 MPH
                                     2168FT  182/15 MPH
                                     2904FT  182/15 MPH
                                     3716FT  182/15 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACE 170/19 MPH
                                       89FT  170/25 MPH
                                      248FT  170/28 MPH
                                      529FT  171/31 MPH
                                      943FT  172/34 MPH
                                     1482FT  172/30 MPH
                                     2136FT  173/24 MPH
                                     2866FT  177/19 MPH
                                     3675FT  183/15 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 173/14 MPH
                                       92FT  174/18 MPH
                                      254FT  175/21 MPH
                                      532FT  176/23 MPH
                                      947FT  172/34 MPH
                                     1482FT  172/30 MPH
                                     2136FT  173/24 MPH
                                     2866FT  177/19 MPH
                                     3675FT  183/15 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                6 PM  3453 FT
                                     8 PM  3208 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        609 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  180/07 MPH
                    8 AM  170/08 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$









000
SXUS43 KTOP 151204
RECTOP

MORNING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
704 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE PERHAPS SOME LOWERED CIGS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD RESIDE NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD FORM ALONG OR SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...WHICH WOULD THREATEN THE TERMINALS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT THE T-STORM THREAT TO END OVERNIGHT.
MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT A PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBY DUE TO PATCHY
FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

JL

.THIS MORNING...
    SUNRISE:                         609 AM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           8 AM  210/08 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 602 AM):        200FT  205/11 MPH
                                      400FT  205/17 MPH
                                      600FT  211/23 MPH
                                      800FT  216/29 MPH
                                     1000FT  227/46 MPH
                                     1500FT  242/54 MPH
                                     2000FT  244/53 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM):      SURFACE 209/06 MPH
                                      102FT  213/09 MPH
                                      259FT  218/14 MPH
                                      529FT  225/22 MPH
                                      932FT  231/32 MPH
                                     1465FT  241/45 MPH
                                     2112FT  253/49 MPH
                                     2836FT  260/46 MPH
                                     3640FT  259/39 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM):        24 201/07 MPH
                                      108FT  203/09 MPH
                                      265FT  211/10 MPH
                                      535FT  223/18 MPH
                                      938FT  232/30 MPH
                                     1468FT  247/41 MPH
                                     2116FT  261/41 MPH
                                     2842FT  268/37 MPH
                                     3647FT  264/32 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM):        27 210/11 MPH
                                      112FT  210/13 MPH
                                      267FT  211/14 MPH
                                      542FT  212/16 MPH
                                      946FT  232/30 MPH
                                     1468FT  247/41 MPH
                                     2116FT  261/41 MPH
                                     2842FT  268/37 MPH
                                     3647FT  264/32 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                8 AM  2241 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:         829 PM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 PM  180/13 MPH
                    8 PM  180/12 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$









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