000
SXUS43 KTOP 180443
RECTOP
EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
...SHAWNEE COUNTY...
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
CONFIDENCE IN IFR VSBY IS IS DIMINISHING AS OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS
COME IN AND BACKED OFF ON VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND WINDS HAVE NOT
BEEN AS LIGHT AS EXPECTED. STILL THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SOME MVFR VSBY TO OCCUR...BUT WILL REMOVE
THE MENTION OF IFR VSBY. DO NOT HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN THE NAM
GENERATING MID DAY CONVECTION IN SOUTHEASTERN KS. THERE IS NO GOOD
EXPLANATION FOR THE NAMS DISJOINTED COOLING OF MID LEVEL TEMPS
WHICH WEAKENS THE CAP. THE RAP ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS THE CAP
HOLDING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING TO
AROUND 90. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE TERMINALS DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST.
.THIS EVENING...
SUNSET: 831 PM
TOP SND (AGL) (AT 603 PM): 200FT 127/10 MPH
400FT 123/12 MPH
600FT 127/11 MPH
800FT 132/10 MPH
1000FT 147/09 MPH
1500FT 163/10 MPH
2000FT 160/11 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM): SURFACE 130/07 MPH
105FT 130/11 MPH
259FT 132/18 MPH
531FT 140/26 MPH
939FT 143/23 MPH
1470FT 150/19 MPH
2114FT 173/16 MPH
2836FT 191/20 MPH
3635FT 199/23 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM): SURFACE 139/07 MPH
102FT 139/10 MPH
258FT 142/17 MPH
531FT 148/26 MPH
935FT 151/25 MPH
1467FT 157/21 MPH
2110FT 181/21 MPH
2831FT 188/22 MPH
3629FT 199/23 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM): 21 129/11 MPH
105FT 131/14 MPH
262FT 133/16 MPH
535FT 145/27 MPH
943FT 151/25 MPH
1467FT 157/21 MPH
2110FT 181/21 MPH
2831FT 188/22 MPH
3629FT 199/23 MPH
.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
SUNRISE: 607 AM
SURFACE WIND: 6 AM 130/03 MPH
8 AM 130/08 MPH
&&
THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA
$$
000
SXUS43 KTOP 172324
RECTOP
EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
624 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
...SHAWNEE COUNTY...
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING CAPPED WITH RAISING MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS OVERNIGHT. SO THERE SHOULD BE NO CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
THINK FOG FORMATION IS PROBABLE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
COOL NEAR THE DEWPOINT TEMP BEFORE THE STRATUS HAS A CHANCE TO
MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS. AND WITH DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM IN THE LOWER
60S...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DRYING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THEREFORE
HAVE INCLUDED SOME IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE MIXED BY 14Z ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
.THIS EVENING...
SUNSET: 831 PM
SURFACE WIND FORECAST: 7 PM 150/09 MPH
8 PM 140/08 MPH
TOP SND (AGL) (AT 603 PM): 200FT 127/10 MPH
400FT 123/12 MPH
600FT 127/11 MPH
800FT 132/10 MPH
1000FT 147/09 MPH
1500FT 163/10 MPH
2000FT 160/11 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM): SURFACE 135/09 MPH
95FT 135/10 MPH
256FT 135/11 MPH
531FT 136/11 MPH
945FT 137/11 MPH
1480FT 137/11 MPH
2131FT 137/11 MPH
2853FT 138/11 MPH
3654FT 142/10 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM): SURFACE 139/11 MPH
98FT 139/13 MPH
256FT 139/13 MPH
535FT 140/13 MPH
946FT 140/14 MPH
1484FT 141/14 MPH
2133FT 141/14 MPH
2856FT 142/14 MPH
3658FT 147/11 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM): SURFACE 141/10 MPH
101FT 140/13 MPH
262FT 141/15 MPH
540FT 142/15 MPH
951FT 140/14 MPH
1484FT 141/14 MPH
2133FT 141/14 MPH
2856FT 142/14 MPH
3658FT 147/11 MPH
DENSITY ALTITUDE: 7 PM 2911 FT
8 PM 2724 FT
.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
SUNRISE: 607 AM
SURFACE WIND: 6 AM 130/06 MPH
8 AM 130/09 MPH
&&
THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA
$$
000
SXUS43 KTOP 171754
RECTOP
EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1254 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
...SHAWNEE COUNTY...
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR STRATOCU THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH MAY SCATTER OR CLEAR AFT LOSS OF HEATING.
HOWEVER...DO EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR STRATUS DECK AND MVFR VSBYS IN
BR TO RETURN WITHIN AXIS OF MOIST SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW AFT
10-11Z...THEN VFR AFT 14Z AS CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVE. WILL KEEP
SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10KTS UNTIL AFT 14Z WHEN STRONGER SFC WINDS
DEVELOP.
.THIS EVENING...
SUNSET: 831 PM
SURFACE WIND FORECAST: 6 PM 150/08 MPH
8 PM 150/08 MPH
TOP SND (AGL) (AT 620 AM): 200FT 178/05 MPH
400FT 182/07 MPH
600FT 188/10 MPH
800FT 196/12 MPH
1000FT 201/10 MPH
1500FT 169/05 MPH
2000FT 155/03 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM): SURFACE 141/10 MPH
89FT 141/12 MPH
251FT 142/12 MPH
531FT 142/13 MPH
944FT 142/13 MPH
1482FT 143/13 MPH
2133FT 143/13 MPH
2860FT 144/13 MPH
3662FT 144/13 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM): SURFACE 142/11 MPH
95FT 143/13 MPH
257FT 143/14 MPH
535FT 143/15 MPH
948FT 144/15 MPH
1487FT 143/15 MPH
2142FT 144/15 MPH
2867FT 145/15 MPH
3673FT 146/11 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM): SURFACE 153/11 MPH
95FT 153/14 MPH
257FT 153/15 MPH
534FT 153/16 MPH
951FT 144/15 MPH
1487FT 143/15 MPH
2142FT 144/15 MPH
2867FT 145/15 MPH
3673FT 146/11 MPH
DENSITY ALTITUDE: 6 PM 3113 FT
8 PM 2803 FT
.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
SUNRISE: 607 AM
SURFACE WIND: 6 AM 140/05 MPH
8 AM 130/09 MPH
&&
THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA
$$
000
SXUS43 KTOP 171239
RECTOP
MORNING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
739 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
...SHAWNEE COUNTY...
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
TOP/FOE BOTH HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISBY MOVING INTO THE
AREA ATTM. THINK IT WILL WARM UP ENOUGH AS THE SUN COMES UP TO
RAISE THE CIGS UP AND SCATTER IT OUT...ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS
SUGGEST IT STAYS CLOUDY MUCH OF THE DAY. THINK THE DECK IS TOO
SHALLOW AND SUN TOO STRONG FOR THIS AND WILL SCATTER OUT AROUND
14/15Z.
.THIS MORNING...
SUNRISE: 608 AM
SURFACE WIND FORECAST: 8 AM 190/05 MPH
TOP SND (AGL) (AT 620 AM): 200FT 178/05 MPH
400FT 182/07 MPH
600FT 188/10 MPH
800FT 196/12 MPH
1000FT 201/10 MPH
1500FT 169/05 MPH
2000FT 155/03 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM): SURFACE 153/05 MPH
91FT 158/08 MPH
246FT 168/13 MPH
515FT 177/14 MPH
915FT 180/11 MPH
1441FT 179/09 MPH
2079FT 182/08 MPH
2790FT 178/08 MPH
3580FT 171/10 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM): SURFACE 173/06 MPH
85FT 176/07 MPH
240FT 176/07 MPH
513FT 192/12 MPH
911FT 198/10 MPH
1435FT 190/08 MPH
2072FT 192/07 MPH
2784FT 198/07 MPH
3572FT 195/08 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM): SURFACE 183/04 MPH
85FT 185/05 MPH
241FT 187/05 MPH
511FT 190/07 MPH
912FT 198/10 MPH
1435FT 190/08 MPH
2072FT 192/07 MPH
2784FT 198/07 MPH
3572FT 195/08 MPH
DENSITY ALTITUDE: 8 AM 1918 FT
.OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING...
SUNSET: 831 PM
SURFACE WIND: 6 PM 150/08 MPH
8 PM 150/08 MPH
&&
THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA
$$
000
SXUS43 KTOP 170621
RECTOP
MORNING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
121 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
...SHAWNEE COUNTY...
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF TOP/FOE AT 05Z AND
SHOULD INCREASE IN SIZE...AND EVENTUALLY BUILD DOWN TO MVFR THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EXPECT INITIAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY BUILD DOWN TO IFR AT TOP/FOE WHILE MHK WILL REMAIN VFR
LONGER ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF CLOUDS. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THIS TAF REGARDING EVENTUAL CIG HEIGHTS AND VIS
RESTRICTIONS...AS WELL AS OVERALL COVERAGE AND PREVALENCE OF THE
FEATURES. HAVE TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR
REDUCED CONDITIONS WITHIN THE TAF.
.THIS MORNING...
SUNRISE: 609 AM
SURFACE WIND FORECAST: 6 AM 150/03 MPH
8 AM 160/05 MPH
TOP SND (AGL) (AT 605 PM): 200FT 158/11 MPH
400FT 156/13 MPH
600FT 159/13 MPH
800FT 158/12 MPH
1000FT 148/10 MPH
1500FT 155/10 MPH
2000FT 156/09 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM): SURFACE 150/05 MPH
91FT 156/09 MPH
243FT 165/13 MPH
513FT 175/16 MPH
913FT 175/10 MPH
1439FT 140/05 MPH
2077FT 116/07 MPH
2790FT 110/09 MPH
3582FT 115/10 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM): SURFACE 149/04 MPH
91FT 153/06 MPH
246FT 160/11 MPH
515FT 176/13 MPH
914FT 184/10 MPH
1439FT 151/04 MPH
2075FT 105/05 MPH
2787FT 098/08 MPH
3577FT 104/08 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM): SURFACE 146/06 MPH
94FT 146/07 MPH
249FT 146/08 MPH
518FT 165/12 MPH
916FT 184/10 MPH
1439FT 151/04 MPH
2075FT 105/05 MPH
2787FT 098/08 MPH
3577FT 104/08 MPH
DENSITY ALTITUDE: 6 AM 1663 FT
8 AM 1874 FT
.OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING...
SUNSET: 830 PM
SURFACE WIND: 6 PM 150/09 MPH
8 PM 150/08 MPH
&&
THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA
$$
000
SXUS43 KTOP 162329
RECTOP
EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
629 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
...SHAWNEE COUNTY...
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST 8 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. DO EXPECT MVFR...AND
EVENTUALLY IFR...CIG/VIS TO BUILD INTO TOP/FOE BETWEEN 08Z AND
10Z. THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHORTER LIVED VIS BELOW 1SM
AT TOP/FOE AS WELL. ALSO EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BUILD INTO
MHK...BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER THE LOWER CIG/VIS
CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS MHK. ANY CIGS SHOULD SCATTER
TO VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 15Z WITH VFR PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF.
.THIS EVENING...
SUNSET: 830 PM
SURFACE WIND FORECAST: 7 PM 140/07 MPH
8 PM 130/07 MPH
TOP SND (AGL) (AT 605 PM): 200FT 158/11 MPH
400FT 156/13 MPH
600FT 159/13 MPH
800FT 158/12 MPH
1000FT 148/10 MPH
1500FT 155/10 MPH
2000FT 156/09 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM): SURFACE 140/12 MPH
92FT 139/14 MPH
250FT 139/15 MPH
525FT 139/15 MPH
939FT 139/15 MPH
1474FT 140/16 MPH
2122FT 140/15 MPH
2842FT 140/15 MPH
3640FT 145/15 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM): SURFACE 146/12 MPH
95FT 146/14 MPH
253FT 146/15 MPH
528FT 146/16 MPH
942FT 147/16 MPH
1477FT 147/16 MPH
2125FT 147/16 MPH
2844FT 147/16 MPH
3642FT 165/12 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM): SURFACE 150/10 MPH
95FT 151/13 MPH
252FT 151/14 MPH
530FT 151/15 MPH
940FT 147/16 MPH
1477FT 147/16 MPH
2125FT 147/16 MPH
2844FT 147/16 MPH
3642FT 165/12 MPH
DENSITY ALTITUDE: 7 PM 2997 FT
8 PM 2747 FT
.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
SUNRISE: 608 AM
SURFACE WIND: 6 AM 140/03 MPH
8 AM 140/05 MPH
&&
THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA
$$
000
SXUS43 KTOP 161738
RECTOP
EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1238 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
...SHAWNEE COUNTY...
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z...BUT
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY 10Z IN MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS. AT THIS POINT DETAILS IN A CIG OR VIS
ISSUE ARE UNCERTAIN...AND MUCH WILL DEPEND ON SMALL SCALE TRENDS
AS THIS PERIOD NEARS...BUT IFR EITHER WAY SEEMS QUITE LIKELY.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD TAKE PLACE BY 15Z.
.THIS EVENING...
SUNSET: 830 PM
SURFACE WIND FORECAST: 6 PM 140/10 MPH
8 PM 140/09 MPH
TOP SND (AGL) (AT 601 AM): 200FT 165/07 MPH
400FT 166/10 MPH
600FT 166/09 MPH
800FT 170/08 MPH
1000FT 200/06 MPH
1500FT 207/10 MPH
2000FT 220/12 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM): SURFACE 119/07 MPH
80FT 120/08 MPH
239FT 119/08 MPH
515FT 119/08 MPH
928FT 119/08 MPH
1465FT 119/08 MPH
2116FT 119/08 MPH
2838FT 119/08 MPH
3636FT 119/08 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM): SURFACE 113/10 MPH
80FT 113/12 MPH
239FT 113/13 MPH
515FT 113/13 MPH
928FT 113/13 MPH
1466FT 113/13 MPH
2114FT 113/13 MPH
2836FT 113/13 MPH
3638FT 112/13 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM): SURFACE 118/12 MPH
86FT 118/15 MPH
244FT 118/16 MPH
521FT 118/17 MPH
933FT 113/13 MPH
1466FT 113/13 MPH
2114FT 113/13 MPH
2836FT 113/13 MPH
3638FT 112/13 MPH
DENSITY ALTITUDE: 6 PM 3186 FT
8 PM 2876 FT
.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
SUNRISE: 608 AM
SURFACE WIND: 6 AM 140/05 MPH
8 AM 140/05 MPH
&&
THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA
$$
000
SXUS43 KTOP 161142
RECTOP
MORNING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
642 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
...SHAWNEE COUNTY...
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
EARLY MORNING VSBY REDUCTION DUE TO PATCHY FOG SHOULD IMPROVE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIKE THIS MORNING
MODELS ARE HINTING AT MORE REDUCED VSBY AT THE TERMINAL SITES FOR
FRIDAY MORNING.
JL
.THIS MORNING...
SUNRISE: 609 AM
SURFACE WIND FORECAST: 7 AM 140/03 MPH
8 AM 140/05 MPH
TOP SND (AGL) (AT 601 AM): 200FT 165/07 MPH
400FT 166/10 MPH
600FT 166/09 MPH
800FT 170/08 MPH
1000FT 200/06 MPH
1500FT 207/10 MPH
2000FT 220/12 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM): SURFACE 099/04 MPH
88FT 096/08 MPH
241FT 093/08 MPH
513FT 090/05 MPH
918FT 075/03 MPH
1444FT 077/02 MPH
2084FT 143/03 MPH
2795FT 138/08 MPH
3590FT 132/11 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM): SURFACE 117/07 MPH
85FT 116/09 MPH
242FT 117/10 MPH
514FT 116/11 MPH
915FT 112/09 MPH
1442FT 111/09 MPH
2079FT 119/10 MPH
2794FT 115/13 MPH
3589FT 111/15 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM): SURFACE 124/08 MPH
88FT 124/09 MPH
243FT 124/10 MPH
516FT 124/10 MPH
921FT 112/09 MPH
1442FT 111/09 MPH
2079FT 119/10 MPH
2794FT 115/13 MPH
3589FT 111/15 MPH
DENSITY ALTITUDE: 7 AM 2165 FT
8 AM 2302 FT
.OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING...
SUNSET: 830 PM
SURFACE WIND: 6 PM 140/10 MPH
8 PM 140/09 MPH
&&
THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA
$$
000
SXUS43 KTOP 160511
RECTOP
MORNING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1211 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
...SHAWNEE COUNTY...
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
VFR FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF BUT STRATUS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM LENDS MORE CONFIDENCE TO A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIG/VIS WITH A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIGS AS WELL. MOST LIKELY TIME
FRAME FOR REDUCED CIGS/VIS WILL FALL BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...WITH
POTENTIAL TO LAST BEYOND 15Z...PARTICULARLY AT TOP/FOE. MAIN
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN IF/HOW FAST CIGS WILL DECREASE INTO IFR AND
HOW LONG CIGS WILL HANG AROUND BEFORE BREAKING UP.
BARJENBRUCH
.THIS MORNING...
SUNRISE: 609 AM
SURFACE WIND FORECAST: 6 AM 150/03 MPH
8 AM 130/03 MPH
TOP SND (AGL) (AT 610 PM): 200FT 201/20 MPH
400FT 194/24 MPH
600FT 194/24 MPH
800FT 196/24 MPH
1000FT 199/23 MPH
1500FT 202/23 MPH
2000FT 199/22 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM): SURFACE 160/07 MPH
91FT 163/09 MPH
245FT 165/10 MPH
517FT 170/12 MPH
922FT 173/13 MPH
1449FT 157/08 MPH
2088FT 101/07 MPH
2803FT 076/11 MPH
3599FT 068/16 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM): SURFACE 122/03 MPH
94FT 131/05 MPH
248FT 135/06 MPH
520FT 152/08 MPH
925FT 149/08 MPH
1452FT 105/08 MPH
2090FT 078/13 MPH
2806FT 068/17 MPH
3603FT 064/19 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM): SURFACE 135/04 MPH
94FT 133/05 MPH
251FT 131/05 MPH
524FT 126/05 MPH
925FT 149/08 MPH
1452FT 105/08 MPH
2090FT 078/13 MPH
2806FT 068/17 MPH
3603FT 064/19 MPH
DENSITY ALTITUDE: 6 AM 1854 FT
8 AM 2056 FT
.OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING...
SUNSET: 829 PM
SURFACE WIND: 6 PM 150/10 MPH
8 PM 150/10G17 MPH
&&
THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA
$$
000
SXUS43 KTOP 152326
RECTOP
EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
626 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
...SHAWNEE COUNTY...
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE BY 02Z WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. WILL MAINTAIN POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIG/VIS AFTER 09Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
AT TOP/FOE ALTHOUGH IT COULD BUILD AS FAR WEST AS MHK. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO REMAIN SCATTERED...BUT ALSO SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THE BKN CIGS TO BUILD IN AS IFR. FOR NOW WILL HIT A
FEW HOURS OF LOW END MVFR...BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
.THIS EVENING...
SUNSET: 829 PM
SURFACE WIND FORECAST: 7 PM 180/13 MPH
8 PM 180/10 MPH
TOP SND (AGL) (AT 610 PM): 200FT 201/20 MPH
400FT 194/24 MPH
600FT 194/24 MPH
800FT 196/24 MPH
1000FT 199/23 MPH
1500FT 202/23 MPH
2000FT 199/22 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM): SURFACE 181/11 MPH
104FT 181/13 MPH
268FT 182/14 MPH
549FT 182/14 MPH
967FT 183/15 MPH
1511FT 183/15 MPH
2167FT 184/14 MPH
2903FT 185/14 MPH
3711FT 185/14 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM): 23 179/13 MPH
110FT 179/16 MPH
271FT 179/17 MPH
552FT 180/17 MPH
970FT 180/17 MPH
1514FT 181/18 MPH
2170FT 181/17 MPH
2902FT 182/17 MPH
3710FT 182/17 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM): SURFACE 186/14 MPH
98FT 186/18 MPH
259FT 186/22 MPH
538FT 187/24 MPH
955FT 180/17 MPH
1514FT 181/18 MPH
2170FT 181/17 MPH
2902FT 182/17 MPH
3710FT 182/17 MPH
DENSITY ALTITUDE: 7 PM 3355 FT
8 PM 3109 FT
.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
SUNRISE: 609 AM
SURFACE WIND: 6 AM 160/03 MPH
8 AM 150/03 MPH
&&
THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA
$$
000
SXUS43 KTOP 151733
RECTOP
EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1233 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
...SHAWNEE COUNTY...
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS ARE FALLING WITH BOUNDARY
STAYING NORTH...AND FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO REMOVE INCLUSION. MAY
SEE GUSTS NEAR 20KT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT THINK THEY WILL
BE THE EXCEPTION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE
TONIGHT...WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES AND PERHAPS CEILINGS AS WELL
DEVELOPING. WILL KEEP MVFR FORECAST AT THIS POINT BUT FURTHER
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
.THIS EVENING...
SUNSET: 829 PM
SURFACE WIND FORECAST: 6 PM 180/13 MPH
8 PM 180/12 MPH
TOP SND (AGL) (AT 602 AM): 200FT 205/11 MPH
400FT 205/17 MPH
600FT 211/23 MPH
800FT 216/29 MPH
1000FT 227/46 MPH
1500FT 242/54 MPH
2000FT 244/53 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM): SURFACE 178/11 MPH
102FT 179/13 MPH
266FT 179/14 MPH
548FT 180/15 MPH
965FT 180/15 MPH
1509FT 181/15 MPH
2168FT 182/15 MPH
2904FT 182/15 MPH
3716FT 182/15 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM): SURFACE 170/19 MPH
89FT 170/25 MPH
248FT 170/28 MPH
529FT 171/31 MPH
943FT 172/34 MPH
1482FT 172/30 MPH
2136FT 173/24 MPH
2866FT 177/19 MPH
3675FT 183/15 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM): SURFACE 173/14 MPH
92FT 174/18 MPH
254FT 175/21 MPH
532FT 176/23 MPH
947FT 172/34 MPH
1482FT 172/30 MPH
2136FT 173/24 MPH
2866FT 177/19 MPH
3675FT 183/15 MPH
DENSITY ALTITUDE: 6 PM 3453 FT
8 PM 3208 FT
.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
SUNRISE: 609 AM
SURFACE WIND: 6 AM 180/07 MPH
8 AM 170/08 MPH
&&
THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA
$$
000
SXUS43 KTOP 151204
RECTOP
MORNING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
704 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
...SHAWNEE COUNTY...
.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE PERHAPS SOME LOWERED CIGS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD RESIDE NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD FORM ALONG OR SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70...WHICH WOULD THREATEN THE TERMINALS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT THE T-STORM THREAT TO END OVERNIGHT.
MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT A PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBY DUE TO PATCHY
FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
JL
.THIS MORNING...
SUNRISE: 609 AM
SURFACE WIND FORECAST: 8 AM 210/08 MPH
TOP SND (AGL) (AT 602 AM): 200FT 205/11 MPH
400FT 205/17 MPH
600FT 211/23 MPH
800FT 216/29 MPH
1000FT 227/46 MPH
1500FT 242/54 MPH
2000FT 244/53 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM): SURFACE 209/06 MPH
102FT 213/09 MPH
259FT 218/14 MPH
529FT 225/22 MPH
932FT 231/32 MPH
1465FT 241/45 MPH
2112FT 253/49 MPH
2836FT 260/46 MPH
3640FT 259/39 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM): 24 201/07 MPH
108FT 203/09 MPH
265FT 211/10 MPH
535FT 223/18 MPH
938FT 232/30 MPH
1468FT 247/41 MPH
2116FT 261/41 MPH
2842FT 268/37 MPH
3647FT 264/32 MPH
RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM): 27 210/11 MPH
112FT 210/13 MPH
267FT 211/14 MPH
542FT 212/16 MPH
946FT 232/30 MPH
1468FT 247/41 MPH
2116FT 261/41 MPH
2842FT 268/37 MPH
3647FT 264/32 MPH
DENSITY ALTITUDE: 8 AM 2241 FT
.OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING...
SUNSET: 829 PM
SURFACE WIND: 6 PM 180/13 MPH
8 PM 180/12 MPH
&&
THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA
$$
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