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000
SXUS43 KTOP 201222
RECTOP

MORNING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
722 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. WILL KEEP LLWS GOING FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS AND COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT, THOUGH MIXING
LOOKS STRONGER TONIGHT THAN IN CURRENT HOURS. SOME GUSTS STILL
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.THIS MORNING...
    SUNRISE:                         640 AM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           8 AM  200/08 MPH
                                     9 AM  200/10 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 626 AM):        200FT  214/10 MPH
                                      400FT  218/18 MPH
                                      600FT  227/24 MPH
                                      800FT  234/30 MPH
                                     1000FT  241/37 MPH
                                     1500FT  236/36 MPH
                                     2000FT  231/30 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM):      SURFACE 200/07 MPH
                                       57FT  212/17 MPH
                                      217FT  214/19 MPH
                                      496FT  228/30 MPH
                                      914FT  234/34 MPH
                                     1456FT  241/35 MPH
                                     2119FT  243/29 MPH
                                     2857FT  243/24 MPH
                                     3675FT  240/21 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM):      SURFACE 194/09 MPH
                                       59FT  203/16 MPH
                                      220FT  205/17 MPH
                                      495FT  221/25 MPH
                                      911FT  229/30 MPH
                                     1455FT  238/30 MPH
                                     2117FT  243/25 MPH
                                     2854FT  242/20 MPH
                                     3673FT  238/18 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM):      SURFACE 206/12 MPH
                                       63FT  206/15 MPH
                                      224FT  207/17 MPH
                                      503FT  208/18 MPH
                                      916FT  229/30 MPH
                                     1455FT  238/30 MPH
                                     2117FT  243/25 MPH
                                     2854FT  242/20 MPH
                                     3673FT  238/18 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                8 AM  2879 FT
                                     9 AM  3076 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:         811 PM
    SURFACE WIND:   5 PM  180/17G25 MPH
                    7 PM  180/15G22 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$








000
SXUS43 KTOP 200441
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1141 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE BEST CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET TO STAY JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN A VFR FORECAST. RAP AND NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LLWS AND
PROFILER DATA IS STARTING TO SHOW THE WINDS AT 925MB STRENGTHEN.
SO WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY THE RAP
AND NAM SHOW A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GOOD
MIXING. BECAUSE OF THIN THINK SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY THE
AFTERNOON.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          812 PM

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 601 PM):        200FT  186/07 MPH
                                      400FT  194/08 MPH
                                      600FT  199/09 MPH
                                      800FT  190/10 MPH
                                     1000FT  186/10 MPH
                                     1500FT  197/12 MPH
                                     2000FT  202/11 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM):      SURFACE 223/09 MPH
                                       63FT  228/21 MPH
                                      221FT  229/24 MPH
                                      502FT  233/35 MPH
                                      921FT  235/40 MPH
                                     1469FT  237/39 MPH
                                     2135FT  239/31 MPH
                                     2876FT  240/25 MPH
                                     3696FT  232/22 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM):      SURFACE 210/07 MPH
                                       66FT  223/18 MPH
                                      224FT  224/21 MPH
                                      504FT  233/32 MPH
                                      923FT  235/36 MPH
                                     1470FT  234/33 MPH
                                     2135FT  231/26 MPH
                                     2875FT  224/22 MPH
                                     3694FT  214/22 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM):      SURFACE 208/10 MPH
                                       63FT  213/17 MPH
                                      224FT  214/18 MPH
                                      503FT  225/28 MPH
                                      921FT  235/36 MPH
                                     1470FT  234/33 MPH
                                     2135FT  231/26 MPH
                                     2875FT  224/22 MPH
                                     3694FT  214/22 MPH

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        640 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  200/06 MPH
                    8 AM  200/07 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$








000
SXUS43 KTOP 200441
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1141 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE BEST CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET TO STAY JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN A VFR FORECAST. RAP AND NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LLWS AND
PROFILER DATA IS STARTING TO SHOW THE WINDS AT 925MB STRENGTHEN.
SO WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY THE RAP
AND NAM SHOW A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GOOD
MIXING. BECAUSE OF THIN THINK SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY THE
AFTERNOON.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          812 PM

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 601 PM):        200FT  186/07 MPH
                                      400FT  194/08 MPH
                                      600FT  199/09 MPH
                                      800FT  190/10 MPH
                                     1000FT  186/10 MPH
                                     1500FT  197/12 MPH
                                     2000FT  202/11 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM):      SURFACE 223/09 MPH
                                       63FT  228/21 MPH
                                      221FT  229/24 MPH
                                      502FT  233/35 MPH
                                      921FT  235/40 MPH
                                     1469FT  237/39 MPH
                                     2135FT  239/31 MPH
                                     2876FT  240/25 MPH
                                     3696FT  232/22 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM):      SURFACE 210/07 MPH
                                       66FT  223/18 MPH
                                      224FT  224/21 MPH
                                      504FT  233/32 MPH
                                      923FT  235/36 MPH
                                     1470FT  234/33 MPH
                                     2135FT  231/26 MPH
                                     2875FT  224/22 MPH
                                     3694FT  214/22 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM):      SURFACE 208/10 MPH
                                       63FT  213/17 MPH
                                      224FT  214/18 MPH
                                      503FT  225/28 MPH
                                      921FT  235/36 MPH
                                     1470FT  234/33 MPH
                                     2135FT  231/26 MPH
                                     2875FT  224/22 MPH
                                     3694FT  214/22 MPH

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        640 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  200/06 MPH
                    8 AM  200/07 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$









000
SXUS43 KTOP 192317
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
617 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

ASIDE FROM THE RAP THAT BRINGS SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION INTO
NORTHERN KS, MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STORMS NORTH OF THE
STATE LINE. WITH ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOWING THE BETTER
CONVERGENCE FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS, WILL CONTINUE WITH A VFR FORECAST. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
SHOW A NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPING WITH 30 TO 40 KTS JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE STRENGTH OF
THE INVERSION AND THE IMPACT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET, HOWEVER FELT
THERE WAS ENOUGH EVIDENCE FOR POSSIBLE LLWS TO INCLUDE IT IN THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          812 PM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           7 PM  160/06 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 601 PM):        200FT  186/07 MPH
                                      400FT  194/08 MPH
                                      600FT  199/09 MPH
                                      800FT  190/10 MPH
                                     1000FT  186/10 MPH
                                     1500FT  197/12 MPH
                                     2000FT  202/11 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 090/02 MPH
                                       39FT  096/02 MPH
                                      204FT  096/02 MPH
                                      488FT  103/02 MPH
                                      913FT  117/02 MPH
                                     1463FT  131/02 MPH
                                     2132FT  164/02 MPH
                                     2876FT  239/06 MPH
                                     3698FT  245/10 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACE 093/04 MPH
                                       48FT  093/04 MPH
                                      211FT  096/04 MPH
                                      498FT  096/04 MPH
                                      921FT  099/04 MPH
                                     1473FT  103/04 MPH
                                     2144FT  142/03 MPH
                                     2887FT  226/08 MPH
                                     3709FT  233/13 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 133/04 MPH
                                       48FT  135/06 MPH
                                      211FT  136/07 MPH
                                      498FT  139/07 MPH
                                      921FT  099/04 MPH
                                     1473FT  103/04 MPH
                                     2144FT  142/03 MPH
                                     2887FT  226/08 MPH
                                     3709FT  233/13 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                7 PM  3885 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        640 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  190/06 MPH
                    8 AM  190/07 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$








000
SXUS43 KTOP 192317
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
617 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

ASIDE FROM THE RAP THAT BRINGS SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION INTO
NORTHERN KS, MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STORMS NORTH OF THE
STATE LINE. WITH ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOWING THE BETTER
CONVERGENCE FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS, WILL CONTINUE WITH A VFR FORECAST. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM
SHOW A NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPING WITH 30 TO 40 KTS JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE STRENGTH OF
THE INVERSION AND THE IMPACT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET, HOWEVER FELT
THERE WAS ENOUGH EVIDENCE FOR POSSIBLE LLWS TO INCLUDE IT IN THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          812 PM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           7 PM  160/06 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 601 PM):        200FT  186/07 MPH
                                      400FT  194/08 MPH
                                      600FT  199/09 MPH
                                      800FT  190/10 MPH
                                     1000FT  186/10 MPH
                                     1500FT  197/12 MPH
                                     2000FT  202/11 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 090/02 MPH
                                       39FT  096/02 MPH
                                      204FT  096/02 MPH
                                      488FT  103/02 MPH
                                      913FT  117/02 MPH
                                     1463FT  131/02 MPH
                                     2132FT  164/02 MPH
                                     2876FT  239/06 MPH
                                     3698FT  245/10 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACE 093/04 MPH
                                       48FT  093/04 MPH
                                      211FT  096/04 MPH
                                      498FT  096/04 MPH
                                      921FT  099/04 MPH
                                     1473FT  103/04 MPH
                                     2144FT  142/03 MPH
                                     2887FT  226/08 MPH
                                     3709FT  233/13 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 133/04 MPH
                                       48FT  135/06 MPH
                                      211FT  136/07 MPH
                                      498FT  139/07 MPH
                                      921FT  099/04 MPH
                                     1473FT  103/04 MPH
                                     2144FT  142/03 MPH
                                     2887FT  226/08 MPH
                                     3709FT  233/13 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                7 PM  3885 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        640 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  190/06 MPH
                    8 AM  190/07 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$









000
SXUS43 KTOP 191814
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
114 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 40 KTS 1500 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE
WHICH WILL PRODUCE MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 9Z AND 14Z WED.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          812 PM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           5 PM  170/07 MPH
                                     7 PM  120/08 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 628 AM):        200FT  260/04 MPH
                                      400FT  258/08 MPH
                                      600FT  248/11 MPH
                                      800FT  241/14 MPH
                                     1000FT  219/23 MPH
                                     1500FT  223/21 MPH
                                     2000FT  235/15 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 272/08 MPH
                                       54FT  272/08 MPH
                                      219FT  271/09 MPH
                                      505FT  270/09 MPH
                                      932FT  270/09 MPH
                                     1489FT  269/09 MPH
                                     2159FT  266/09 MPH
                                     2907FT  265/10 MPH
                                     3733FT  264/10 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACE 277/04 MPH
                                       61FT  276/04 MPH
                                      225FT  276/04 MPH
                                      512FT  273/05 MPH
                                      939FT  270/05 MPH
                                     1495FT  265/05 MPH
                                     2167FT  258/05 MPH
                                     2915FT  253/06 MPH
                                     3742FT  247/07 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 038/04 MPH
                                       58FT  038/04 MPH
                                      225FT  039/03 MPH
                                      511FT  038/03 MPH
                                      936FT  270/05 MPH
                                     1495FT  265/05 MPH
                                     2167FT  258/05 MPH
                                     2915FT  253/06 MPH
                                     3742FT  247/07 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                5 PM  4083 FT
                                     7 PM  3914 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        640 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  180/06 MPH
                    8 AM  180/09 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$









000
SXUS43 KTOP 191814
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
114 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 40 KTS 1500 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE
WHICH WILL PRODUCE MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN 9Z AND 14Z WED.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          812 PM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           5 PM  170/07 MPH
                                     7 PM  120/08 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 628 AM):        200FT  260/04 MPH
                                      400FT  258/08 MPH
                                      600FT  248/11 MPH
                                      800FT  241/14 MPH
                                     1000FT  219/23 MPH
                                     1500FT  223/21 MPH
                                     2000FT  235/15 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 272/08 MPH
                                       54FT  272/08 MPH
                                      219FT  271/09 MPH
                                      505FT  270/09 MPH
                                      932FT  270/09 MPH
                                     1489FT  269/09 MPH
                                     2159FT  266/09 MPH
                                     2907FT  265/10 MPH
                                     3733FT  264/10 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACE 277/04 MPH
                                       61FT  276/04 MPH
                                      225FT  276/04 MPH
                                      512FT  273/05 MPH
                                      939FT  270/05 MPH
                                     1495FT  265/05 MPH
                                     2167FT  258/05 MPH
                                     2915FT  253/06 MPH
                                     3742FT  247/07 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 038/04 MPH
                                       58FT  038/04 MPH
                                      225FT  039/03 MPH
                                      511FT  038/03 MPH
                                      936FT  270/05 MPH
                                     1495FT  265/05 MPH
                                     2167FT  258/05 MPH
                                     2915FT  253/06 MPH
                                     3742FT  247/07 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                5 PM  4083 FT
                                     7 PM  3914 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        640 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  180/06 MPH
                    8 AM  180/09 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$








000
SXUS43 KTOP 190437
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1137 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR PREVAILS AT KTOP/KFOE/KMHK WITH MAIN CONCERN BEING TSRA
POTENTIAL. CLUSTER OF TSRA OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS IS PROGGED TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SCATTERED TSRA AFT 08Z SO WILL LEAVE VCTS
MENTION THROUGH 11Z AT KMHK AND 14Z AT KTOP/KFOE.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          813 PM

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 604 PM):        200FT  182/06 MPH
                                      400FT  185/06 MPH
                                      600FT  179/07 MPH
                                      800FT  172/08 MPH
                                     1000FT  158/08 MPH
                                     1500FT  147/08 MPH
                                     2000FT  149/10 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM):      SURFACE 215/07 MPH
                                       42FT  228/16 MPH
                                      202FT  233/19 MPH
                                      481FT  261/23 MPH
                                      895FT  274/29 MPH
                                     1434FT  281/32 MPH
                                     2090FT  291/29 MPH
                                     2825FT  301/24 MPH
                                     3640FT  302/18 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM):      SURFACE 230/09 MPH
                                       33FT  237/20 MPH
                                      192FT  240/22 MPH
                                      467FT  256/28 MPH
                                      880FT  270/27 MPH
                                     1417FT  292/20 MPH
                                     2074FT  316/14 MPH
                                     2807FT  328/10 MPH
                                     3621FT  299/10 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM):      SURFACE 260/09 MPH
                                       33FT  263/12 MPH
                                      192FT  264/13 MPH
                                      469FT  274/15 MPH
                                      880FT  270/27 MPH
                                     1417FT  292/20 MPH
                                     2074FT  316/14 MPH
                                     2807FT  328/10 MPH
                                     3621FT  299/10 MPH

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        639 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  250/05 MPH
                    8 AM  220/02 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$









000
SXUS43 KTOP 190437
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1137 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR PREVAILS AT KTOP/KFOE/KMHK WITH MAIN CONCERN BEING TSRA
POTENTIAL. CLUSTER OF TSRA OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS IS PROGGED TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SCATTERED TSRA AFT 08Z SO WILL LEAVE VCTS
MENTION THROUGH 11Z AT KMHK AND 14Z AT KTOP/KFOE.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          813 PM

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 604 PM):        200FT  182/06 MPH
                                      400FT  185/06 MPH
                                      600FT  179/07 MPH
                                      800FT  172/08 MPH
                                     1000FT  158/08 MPH
                                     1500FT  147/08 MPH
                                     2000FT  149/10 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM):      SURFACE 215/07 MPH
                                       42FT  228/16 MPH
                                      202FT  233/19 MPH
                                      481FT  261/23 MPH
                                      895FT  274/29 MPH
                                     1434FT  281/32 MPH
                                     2090FT  291/29 MPH
                                     2825FT  301/24 MPH
                                     3640FT  302/18 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM):      SURFACE 230/09 MPH
                                       33FT  237/20 MPH
                                      192FT  240/22 MPH
                                      467FT  256/28 MPH
                                      880FT  270/27 MPH
                                     1417FT  292/20 MPH
                                     2074FT  316/14 MPH
                                     2807FT  328/10 MPH
                                     3621FT  299/10 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM):      SURFACE 260/09 MPH
                                       33FT  263/12 MPH
                                      192FT  264/13 MPH
                                      469FT  274/15 MPH
                                      880FT  270/27 MPH
                                     1417FT  292/20 MPH
                                     2074FT  316/14 MPH
                                     2807FT  328/10 MPH
                                     3621FT  299/10 MPH

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        639 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  250/05 MPH
                    8 AM  220/02 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$








000
SXUS43 KTOP 182358
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
658 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT SITES AS NEW GUIDANCE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR VCTS MENTION FOR SCATTERED TSRA TO FORM ALONG AND
NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE TERMINALS. BEST TIMING FOR
CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS IS FROM 06Z TO 13Z. ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. VRB WINDS PERSIST NEAR THE BOUNDARY
AXIS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          813 PM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           7 PM  140/06 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 604 PM):        200FT  182/06 MPH
                                      400FT  185/06 MPH
                                      600FT  179/07 MPH
                                      800FT  172/08 MPH
                                     1000FT  158/08 MPH
                                     1500FT  147/08 MPH
                                     2000FT  149/10 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 125/07 MPH
                                       57FT  127/07 MPH
                                      219FT  129/07 MPH
                                      505FT  130/07 MPH
                                      927FT  133/07 MPH
                                     1480FT  138/07 MPH
                                     2145FT  143/07 MPH
                                     2887FT  153/06 MPH
                                     3709FT  163/06 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACE 145/07 MPH
                                       57FT  146/08 MPH
                                      223FT  148/08 MPH
                                      506FT  151/09 MPH
                                      929FT  153/09 MPH
                                     1482FT  157/09 MPH
                                     2148FT  163/09 MPH
                                     2892FT  169/09 MPH
                                     3712FT  176/09 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 138/06 MPH
                                       54FT  142/08 MPH
                                      219FT  146/10 MPH
                                      503FT  150/11 MPH
                                      925FT  153/09 MPH
                                     1482FT  157/09 MPH
                                     2148FT  163/09 MPH
                                     2892FT  169/09 MPH
                                     3712FT  176/09 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                7 PM  3632 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        639 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  250/05 MPH
                    8 AM  220/02 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$









000
SXUS43 KTOP 182358
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
658 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT SITES AS NEW GUIDANCE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR VCTS MENTION FOR SCATTERED TSRA TO FORM ALONG AND
NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE TERMINALS. BEST TIMING FOR
CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS IS FROM 06Z TO 13Z. ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. VRB WINDS PERSIST NEAR THE BOUNDARY
AXIS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          813 PM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           7 PM  140/06 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 604 PM):        200FT  182/06 MPH
                                      400FT  185/06 MPH
                                      600FT  179/07 MPH
                                      800FT  172/08 MPH
                                     1000FT  158/08 MPH
                                     1500FT  147/08 MPH
                                     2000FT  149/10 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 125/07 MPH
                                       57FT  127/07 MPH
                                      219FT  129/07 MPH
                                      505FT  130/07 MPH
                                      927FT  133/07 MPH
                                     1480FT  138/07 MPH
                                     2145FT  143/07 MPH
                                     2887FT  153/06 MPH
                                     3709FT  163/06 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACE 145/07 MPH
                                       57FT  146/08 MPH
                                      223FT  148/08 MPH
                                      506FT  151/09 MPH
                                      929FT  153/09 MPH
                                     1482FT  157/09 MPH
                                     2148FT  163/09 MPH
                                     2892FT  169/09 MPH
                                     3712FT  176/09 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 138/06 MPH
                                       54FT  142/08 MPH
                                      219FT  146/10 MPH
                                      503FT  150/11 MPH
                                      925FT  153/09 MPH
                                     1482FT  157/09 MPH
                                     2148FT  163/09 MPH
                                     2892FT  169/09 MPH
                                     3712FT  176/09 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                7 PM  3632 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        639 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  250/05 MPH
                    8 AM  220/02 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$








000
SXUS43 KTOP 181755
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1255 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN
6Z AND 12Z TUE. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          813 PM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           5 PM  170/12 MPH
                                     7 PM  140/09 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 630 AM):        200FT  239/04 MPH
                                      400FT  236/07 MPH
                                      600FT  218/09 MPH
                                      800FT  194/10 MPH
                                     1000FT  150/09 MPH
                                     1500FT  221/05 MPH
                                     2000FT  265/09 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 283/05 MPH
                                       73FT  285/05 MPH
                                      236FT  285/05 MPH
                                      524FT  285/05 MPH
                                      946FT  282/05 MPH
                                     1499FT  282/05 MPH
                                     2170FT  279/06 MPH
                                     2914FT  279/06 MPH
                                     3739FT  277/06 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACE 272/05 MPH
                                       70FT  272/06 MPH
                                      236FT  272/06 MPH
                                      522FT  270/06 MPH
                                      947FT  270/06 MPH
                                     1498FT  268/06 MPH
                                     2169FT  266/06 MPH
                                     2914FT  264/06 MPH
                                     3736FT  262/06 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 258/04 MPH
                                       76FT  259/06 MPH
                                      239FT  258/07 MPH
                                      527FT  255/07 MPH
                                      952FT  270/06 MPH
                                     1498FT  268/06 MPH
                                     2169FT  266/06 MPH
                                     2914FT  264/06 MPH
                                     3736FT  262/06 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                5 PM  3960 FT
                                     7 PM  3779 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        639 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  020/03 MPH
                    8 AM  060/05 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$








000
SXUS43 KTOP 181755
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1255 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN
6Z AND 12Z TUE. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          813 PM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           5 PM  170/12 MPH
                                     7 PM  140/09 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 630 AM):        200FT  239/04 MPH
                                      400FT  236/07 MPH
                                      600FT  218/09 MPH
                                      800FT  194/10 MPH
                                     1000FT  150/09 MPH
                                     1500FT  221/05 MPH
                                     2000FT  265/09 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 283/05 MPH
                                       73FT  285/05 MPH
                                      236FT  285/05 MPH
                                      524FT  285/05 MPH
                                      946FT  282/05 MPH
                                     1499FT  282/05 MPH
                                     2170FT  279/06 MPH
                                     2914FT  279/06 MPH
                                     3739FT  277/06 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACE 272/05 MPH
                                       70FT  272/06 MPH
                                      236FT  272/06 MPH
                                      522FT  270/06 MPH
                                      947FT  270/06 MPH
                                     1498FT  268/06 MPH
                                     2169FT  266/06 MPH
                                     2914FT  264/06 MPH
                                     3736FT  262/06 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 258/04 MPH
                                       76FT  259/06 MPH
                                      239FT  258/07 MPH
                                      527FT  255/07 MPH
                                      952FT  270/06 MPH
                                     1498FT  268/06 MPH
                                     2169FT  266/06 MPH
                                     2914FT  264/06 MPH
                                     3736FT  262/06 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                5 PM  3960 FT
                                     7 PM  3779 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        639 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  020/03 MPH
                    8 AM  060/05 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$









000
SXUS43 KTOP 180540
RECTOP

MORNING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1240 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

REMNANT CLUSTER OF TSRA GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER KMHK WHILE GUST
FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH KTOP/KFOE JUST BEFORE 06Z. GUSTY WINDS
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY HANDLING CLOUD COVER AND TSRA WITH THE
HRRR SHOWING SOME CONFIDENCE IN CLUSTER DIMINISHING SOUTH OF
KTOP/KFOE. MENTIONED VCTS AFTER 07Z IN CASE SCATTERED CONVECTION
REFORMS NEAR TERMINALS. BKN MID LEVEL DECK LINGERS THROUGH MID
MORNING BEFORE MIXING INCREASES SOUTH WINDS DURING AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA POSSIBLE TOWARDS 00Z, HOWEVER TIMING AND
LOCATION STILL UNCERTAIN FOR MENTION.

.THIS MORNING...
    SUNRISE:                         638 AM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           6 AM  160/05 MPH
                                     8 AM  160/06 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 620 PM):        200FT  078/05 MPH
                                      400FT  088/05 MPH
                                      600FT  110/04 MPH
                                      800FT  102/03 MPH
                                     1000FT  076/03 MPH
                                     1500FT  076/06 MPH
                                     2000FT  077/05 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM):      SURFACE 172/05 MPH
                                       24FT  187/11 MPH
                                      183FT  192/13 MPH
                                      458FT  200/17 MPH
                                      868FT  205/20 MPH
                                     1403FT  223/16 MPH
                                     2059FT  267/14 MPH
                                     2789FT  277/20 MPH
                                     3604FT  281/25 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM):      SURFACE 170/05 MPH
                                       21FT  178/11 MPH
                                      180FT  181/13 MPH
                                      455FT  194/18 MPH
                                      865FT  205/20 MPH
                                     1401FT  228/11 MPH
                                     2056FT  260/19 MPH
                                     2790FT  266/26 MPH
                                     3604FT  272/30 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM):      SURFACE 175/08 MPH
                                       30FT  178/10 MPH
                                      189FT  179/12 MPH
                                      464FT  187/15 MPH
                                      875FT  205/20 MPH
                                     1401FT  228/11 MPH
                                     2056FT  260/19 MPH
                                     2790FT  266/26 MPH
                                     3604FT  272/30 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                6 AM  2193 FT
                                     8 AM  2448 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:         815 PM
    SURFACE WIND:   5 PM  200/09 MPH
                    7 PM  200/07 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$









000
SXUS43 KTOP 180540
RECTOP

MORNING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1240 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

REMNANT CLUSTER OF TSRA GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER KMHK WHILE GUST
FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH KTOP/KFOE JUST BEFORE 06Z. GUSTY WINDS
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY HANDLING CLOUD COVER AND TSRA WITH THE
HRRR SHOWING SOME CONFIDENCE IN CLUSTER DIMINISHING SOUTH OF
KTOP/KFOE. MENTIONED VCTS AFTER 07Z IN CASE SCATTERED CONVECTION
REFORMS NEAR TERMINALS. BKN MID LEVEL DECK LINGERS THROUGH MID
MORNING BEFORE MIXING INCREASES SOUTH WINDS DURING AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA POSSIBLE TOWARDS 00Z, HOWEVER TIMING AND
LOCATION STILL UNCERTAIN FOR MENTION.

.THIS MORNING...
    SUNRISE:                         638 AM

    SURFACE WIND FORECAST:           6 AM  160/05 MPH
                                     8 AM  160/06 MPH

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 620 PM):        200FT  078/05 MPH
                                      400FT  088/05 MPH
                                      600FT  110/04 MPH
                                      800FT  102/03 MPH
                                     1000FT  076/03 MPH
                                     1500FT  076/06 MPH
                                     2000FT  077/05 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 AM):      SURFACE 172/05 MPH
                                       24FT  187/11 MPH
                                      183FT  192/13 MPH
                                      458FT  200/17 MPH
                                      868FT  205/20 MPH
                                     1403FT  223/16 MPH
                                     2059FT  267/14 MPH
                                     2789FT  277/20 MPH
                                     3604FT  281/25 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 AM):      SURFACE 170/05 MPH
                                       21FT  178/11 MPH
                                      180FT  181/13 MPH
                                      455FT  194/18 MPH
                                      865FT  205/20 MPH
                                     1401FT  228/11 MPH
                                     2056FT  260/19 MPH
                                     2790FT  266/26 MPH
                                     3604FT  272/30 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 900 AM):      SURFACE 175/08 MPH
                                       30FT  178/10 MPH
                                      189FT  179/12 MPH
                                      464FT  187/15 MPH
                                      875FT  205/20 MPH
                                     1401FT  228/11 MPH
                                     2056FT  260/19 MPH
                                     2790FT  266/26 MPH
                                     3604FT  272/30 MPH

    DENSITY ALTITUDE:                6 AM  2193 FT
                                     8 AM  2448 FT

.OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:         815 PM
    SURFACE WIND:   5 PM  200/09 MPH
                    7 PM  200/07 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$








000
SXUS43 KTOP 180006
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
706 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF TSRA OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. LATEST GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARD CONVECTION
WEAKENING WEST OF KMHK BY 12Z. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION THUNDER AT KMHK AT THIS TIME. SECOND CONCERN IS FOG
POTENTIAL BEFORE CLOUD COVER ARRIVES. MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT KTOP AFTER 09Z WHILE INCREASED WINDS AND CLOUD COVER AT KMHK/KFOE
MAY HINDER LOWER VISIBILITIES. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND
14Z AS MIXING INCREASES.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          815 PM

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 620 PM):        200FT  078/05 MPH
                                      400FT  088/05 MPH
                                      600FT  110/04 MPH
                                      800FT  102/03 MPH
                                     1000FT  076/03 MPH
                                     1500FT  076/06 MPH
                                     2000FT  077/05 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 086/09 MPH
                                       63FT  085/10 MPH
                                      223FT  085/10 MPH
                                      506FT  085/10 MPH
                                      929FT  083/10 MPH
                                     1475FT  083/09 MPH
                                     2136FT  081/08 MPH
                                     2872FT  076/07 MPH
                                     3688FT  047/06 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACE 087/08 MPH
                                       63FT  087/09 MPH
                                      226FT  087/09 MPH
                                      509FT  087/09 MPH
                                      928FT  087/09 MPH
                                     1474FT  087/09 MPH
                                     2137FT  087/08 MPH
                                     2873FT  085/07 MPH
                                     3686FT  057/05 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 093/08 MPH
                                       69FT  094/10 MPH
                                      231FT  095/11 MPH
                                      513FT  095/11 MPH
                                      931FT  087/09 MPH
                                     1474FT  087/09 MPH
                                     2137FT  087/08 MPH
                                     2873FT  085/07 MPH
                                     3686FT  057/05 MPH

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        639 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  160/05 MPH
                    8 AM  160/06 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$









000
SXUS43 KTOP 180006
RECTOP

EVENING LOW LEVEL WIND FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
706 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...SHAWNEE COUNTY...

.DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

MONITORING THE EVOLUTION OF TSRA OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. LATEST GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO TREND TOWARD CONVECTION
WEAKENING WEST OF KMHK BY 12Z. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION THUNDER AT KMHK AT THIS TIME. SECOND CONCERN IS FOG
POTENTIAL BEFORE CLOUD COVER ARRIVES. MVFR TO IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT KTOP AFTER 09Z WHILE INCREASED WINDS AND CLOUD COVER AT KMHK/KFOE
MAY HINDER LOWER VISIBILITIES. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND
14Z AS MIXING INCREASES.

.THIS EVENING...
    SUNSET:                          815 PM

    TOP SND (AGL) (AT 620 PM):        200FT  078/05 MPH
                                      400FT  088/05 MPH
                                      600FT  110/04 MPH
                                      800FT  102/03 MPH
                                     1000FT  076/03 MPH
                                     1500FT  076/06 MPH
                                     2000FT  077/05 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 600 PM):      SURFACE 086/09 MPH
                                       63FT  085/10 MPH
                                      223FT  085/10 MPH
                                      506FT  085/10 MPH
                                      929FT  083/10 MPH
                                     1475FT  083/09 MPH
                                     2136FT  081/08 MPH
                                     2872FT  076/07 MPH
                                     3688FT  047/06 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 700 PM):      SURFACE 087/08 MPH
                                       63FT  087/09 MPH
                                      226FT  087/09 MPH
                                      509FT  087/09 MPH
                                      928FT  087/09 MPH
                                     1474FT  087/09 MPH
                                     2137FT  087/08 MPH
                                     2873FT  085/07 MPH
                                     3686FT  057/05 MPH

    RAP WINDS (AGL)(AT 800 PM):      SURFACE 093/08 MPH
                                       69FT  094/10 MPH
                                      231FT  095/11 MPH
                                      513FT  095/11 MPH
                                      931FT  087/09 MPH
                                     1474FT  087/09 MPH
                                     2137FT  087/08 MPH
                                     2873FT  085/07 MPH
                                     3686FT  057/05 MPH

.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    SUNRISE:        639 AM
    SURFACE WIND:   6 AM  160/05 MPH
                    8 AM  160/06 MPH

&&

THIS FORECAST IS NOT ROUTINELY UPDATED OR AMENDED OUTSIDE OF
SCHEDULED ISSUANCES. A METEOROLOGIST WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE AT PHONE
NUMBER 1-785-234-2592.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA

$$








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