Home > Products > Valid Products > SWO

000
ACUS02 KWNS 310600
SWODY2
SPC AC 310559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR SERN SD/FAR SRN
MN/WRN AND CENTRAL IA/ERN NEB/NRN AND CENTRAL KS/NWRN MO...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE
UPPER MS/MID MO VALLEYS AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE SRN STREAM IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MOVING
QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH EARLY THU.
MEANWHILE...A MORE AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM IS PROGGED ACROSS THE NRN
2/3 OF THE CONUS...WITH ONE TROUGH VACATING THE ERN U.S. WITH TIME
AND A SECOND DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND SPREADING INTO THE
N CENTRAL U.S. LATER IN THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE...WITH A TRAILING OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT TO ADVANCE
EWD/SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND A WARM FRONT TO SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY.  MEANWHILE...A WEAK LEE LOW IS PROGGED OVER
WRN KS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON -- WHILE A DRYLINE MIXES
EWD ACROSS WRN KS/WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE/S PLAINS REGION.  THIS
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM WILL FOCUS THE
PRIMARY AREA OF STORMS/SEVERE RISK THIS PERIOD.

...SRN MN/IA ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL KS...
SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WILL ADVECT A HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS NWD THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING COMBINING WITH THE ADVECTING
MOISTURE TO YIELD A WARM SECTOR FEATURING PRIMARILY 50S DEWPOINTS AS
FAR N AS ERN NEB/IA/SRN MN.  STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WITHIN AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING HEATING/MOISTENING
WILL YIELD MODERATE CAPE /1500 TO 2500 J/KG/ -- SUPPORTING STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SRN MN
SWWD INTO NRN KS.

WHILE AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT INITIAL STORM MODE SHOULD
BE SUPERCELLULAR...EXPECT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MAINLY LINEAR MODE
TO OCCUR FAIRLY RAPIDLY.  THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
INCREASING WITH TIME AS LINEAR MODE EVOLVES INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
AFTER SUNSET AS THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS STABILIZES...EXPECT SEVERE
THREAT TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...THOUGH WIDESPREAD STORMS -- AIDED BY
A DEVELOPING SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET -- WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS
THEY SPREAD SEWD ACROSS IA /NWRN MO.

MEANWHILE FARTHER S...WEAKER LARGE-SCALE UVV AND A WEAK CAP SHOULD
HINDER STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ADVANCING DRYLINE ACROSS WRN OK
AND THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK AREA.  A COUPLE OF CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY
EVOLVE...THOUGH RELATIVELY MODEST SHEAR SUGGESTS LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL.  THIS LIMITED RISK AND LIKELIHOOD FOR SPARSE STORM
COVERAGE WARRANTS MAINTAINING ONLY 5% SEVERE RISK ATTM.

..GOSS.. 03/31/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 310554
SWODY1
SPC AC 310552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SWRN OK AND WRN N-CNTRL
TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
FROM W TX THROUGH AR TO SRN GA/NRN FL...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. SCATTERED
STORMS...A FEW STRONG...ARE EXPECTED FROM ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES AND THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  A LOWER-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN MEXICO WILL TRANSLATE EWD AND
PRIMARILY INFLUENCE THE TX-MEXICO BORDER REGION TO THE S OF A RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW WILL
FORM E OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH IN LEE OF
THE ROCKIES.  A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY OVER NWRN TX WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE.

...SRN PLAINS...
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SAMPLED OVER THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING
WHICH FEATURED H7-H5 LAPSE RATES 8-9 DEG C/KM WILL RESIDE OVER THE
REGION TODAY.  A WEAK THERMAL LOW IS FORECAST OVER NWRN TX BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL AID IN ESTABLISHING A GENERAL NORTH TO SOUTH DRYLINE
ACROSS NWRN AND W TX.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN N-CNTRL TX WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 55 DEG F NEAR THE DRYLINE TO THE LOWER
60S FARTHER E.  DESPITE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MEXICO TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL ACT
TO WEAKEN AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOCALLY ERODE THE CAP DURING THE 21-23Z
PERIOD YIELDING ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD STORMS.

COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS /AOB -15 DEG C AT H5/ WILL FAVOR THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  ALTHOUGH THE
LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL FEATURE GENERALLY WEAK TO MODEST
FLOW...STRONGLY VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN 25-40 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR -- SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.  SUPERCELL
HAIL POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGHEST ACROSS SWRN OK DUE IN PART TO
STRONGER DEEP SHEAR AND PRIOR TO THE LATTER STAGES OF THE CONVECTIVE
LIFE CYCLE.

...SERN U.S...
THE EWD EXTENSION OF THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL
LIKELY ENCOMPASS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH AND
BECOME GENERALLY ALIGNED WITH A RESIDUAL FRONTAL SEGMENT EXTENDING
FROM AR ESEWD INTO AL/GA.  BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /1000-2500 J PER KG SBCAPE/.
STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW WITH HEIGHT AND COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING A LARGE
HAIL THREAT.  IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND MESOSCALE FOCI DETAILS
BECOME MORE APPARENT WITHIN A PORTION OF THIS REGIONAL CORRIDOR...AN
UPGRADE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES/CATEGORICAL RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.

..SMITH/LEITMAN.. 03/31/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 310554
SWODY1
SPC AC 310552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SWRN OK AND WRN N-CNTRL
TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
FROM W TX THROUGH AR TO SRN GA/NRN FL...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. SCATTERED
STORMS...A FEW STRONG...ARE EXPECTED FROM ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES AND THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  A LOWER-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN MEXICO WILL TRANSLATE EWD AND
PRIMARILY INFLUENCE THE TX-MEXICO BORDER REGION TO THE S OF A RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW WILL
FORM E OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH IN LEE OF
THE ROCKIES.  A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY OVER NWRN TX WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE.

...SRN PLAINS...
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SAMPLED OVER THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING
WHICH FEATURED H7-H5 LAPSE RATES 8-9 DEG C/KM WILL RESIDE OVER THE
REGION TODAY.  A WEAK THERMAL LOW IS FORECAST OVER NWRN TX BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL AID IN ESTABLISHING A GENERAL NORTH TO SOUTH DRYLINE
ACROSS NWRN AND W TX.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN N-CNTRL TX WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 55 DEG F NEAR THE DRYLINE TO THE LOWER
60S FARTHER E.  DESPITE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MEXICO TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL ACT
TO WEAKEN AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOCALLY ERODE THE CAP DURING THE 21-23Z
PERIOD YIELDING ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD STORMS.

COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS /AOB -15 DEG C AT H5/ WILL FAVOR THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  ALTHOUGH THE
LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL FEATURE GENERALLY WEAK TO MODEST
FLOW...STRONGLY VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN 25-40 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR -- SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.  SUPERCELL
HAIL POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGHEST ACROSS SWRN OK DUE IN PART TO
STRONGER DEEP SHEAR AND PRIOR TO THE LATTER STAGES OF THE CONVECTIVE
LIFE CYCLE.

...SERN U.S...
THE EWD EXTENSION OF THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL
LIKELY ENCOMPASS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH AND
BECOME GENERALLY ALIGNED WITH A RESIDUAL FRONTAL SEGMENT EXTENDING
FROM AR ESEWD INTO AL/GA.  BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /1000-2500 J PER KG SBCAPE/.
STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW WITH HEIGHT AND COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING A LARGE
HAIL THREAT.  IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND MESOSCALE FOCI DETAILS
BECOME MORE APPARENT WITHIN A PORTION OF THIS REGIONAL CORRIDOR...AN
UPGRADE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES/CATEGORICAL RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.

..SMITH/LEITMAN.. 03/31/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 310554
SWODY1
SPC AC 310552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SWRN OK AND WRN N-CNTRL
TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
FROM W TX THROUGH AR TO SRN GA/NRN FL...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. SCATTERED
STORMS...A FEW STRONG...ARE EXPECTED FROM ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES AND THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  A LOWER-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER NRN MEXICO WILL TRANSLATE EWD AND
PRIMARILY INFLUENCE THE TX-MEXICO BORDER REGION TO THE S OF A RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE NRN PLAINS.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW WILL
FORM E OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH IN LEE OF
THE ROCKIES.  A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY OVER NWRN TX WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE.

...SRN PLAINS...
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SAMPLED OVER THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY EVENING
WHICH FEATURED H7-H5 LAPSE RATES 8-9 DEG C/KM WILL RESIDE OVER THE
REGION TODAY.  A WEAK THERMAL LOW IS FORECAST OVER NWRN TX BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL AID IN ESTABLISHING A GENERAL NORTH TO SOUTH DRYLINE
ACROSS NWRN AND W TX.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN N-CNTRL TX WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM NEAR 55 DEG F NEAR THE DRYLINE TO THE LOWER
60S FARTHER E.  DESPITE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MEXICO TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL ACT
TO WEAKEN AND SUBSEQUENTLY LOCALLY ERODE THE CAP DURING THE 21-23Z
PERIOD YIELDING ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD STORMS.

COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS /AOB -15 DEG C AT H5/ WILL FAVOR THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  ALTHOUGH THE
LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL FEATURE GENERALLY WEAK TO MODEST
FLOW...STRONGLY VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL RESULT IN 25-40 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR -- SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.  SUPERCELL
HAIL POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGHEST ACROSS SWRN OK DUE IN PART TO
STRONGER DEEP SHEAR AND PRIOR TO THE LATTER STAGES OF THE CONVECTIVE
LIFE CYCLE.

...SERN U.S...
THE EWD EXTENSION OF THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL
LIKELY ENCOMPASS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH AND
BECOME GENERALLY ALIGNED WITH A RESIDUAL FRONTAL SEGMENT EXTENDING
FROM AR ESEWD INTO AL/GA.  BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /1000-2500 J PER KG SBCAPE/.
STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW WITH HEIGHT AND COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING A LARGE
HAIL THREAT.  IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND MESOSCALE FOCI DETAILS
BECOME MORE APPARENT WITHIN A PORTION OF THIS REGIONAL CORRIDOR...AN
UPGRADE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES/CATEGORICAL RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.

..SMITH/LEITMAN.. 03/31/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 310041
SWODY1
SPC AC 310039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST STATES.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE CAROLINA GULF STREAM WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD INTO THE BASE OF A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC.  UPSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE...A SEWD-MIGRATING
PERTURBATION WILL MOVE FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT.  FARTHER W...A LOWER-LATITUDE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT EWD
INTO BAJA CA BY DAYBREAK WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE ORE/WA COAST LATE TONIGHT.

...NORTHEAST GULF COAST STATES...
THE ADVECTION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION ACCORDING TO
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAOB DATA AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY
GOING FORWARD THIS EVENING.  A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE INVOF
A DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED OVER THE REGION BEFORE NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION.

...SRN OK INTO WRN AR...
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL
SEEMINGLY EXIST ACROSS PRIMARILY SRN OK AND INTO PARTS OF WRN AR
LATE TONIGHT AS WEAK WAA IS IMPOSED ON LOW-LEVEL NWD-ADVANCING
MOISTURE FROM NERN TX AND INTO SRN OK.  CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY VIA
A PLUME OF H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 DEG C PER KM OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY IS RESULTING IN 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE...BUT A STOUT CAPPING
INVERSION AND THE ABSENCE OF UPPER FORCING WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

..SMITH.. 03/31/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 310041
SWODY1
SPC AC 310039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST STATES.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE CAROLINA GULF STREAM WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD INTO THE BASE OF A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC.  UPSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE...A SEWD-MIGRATING
PERTURBATION WILL MOVE FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT.  FARTHER W...A LOWER-LATITUDE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT EWD
INTO BAJA CA BY DAYBREAK WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE ORE/WA COAST LATE TONIGHT.

...NORTHEAST GULF COAST STATES...
THE ADVECTION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION ACCORDING TO
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAOB DATA AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY
GOING FORWARD THIS EVENING.  A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE INVOF
A DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED OVER THE REGION BEFORE NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION.

...SRN OK INTO WRN AR...
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL
SEEMINGLY EXIST ACROSS PRIMARILY SRN OK AND INTO PARTS OF WRN AR
LATE TONIGHT AS WEAK WAA IS IMPOSED ON LOW-LEVEL NWD-ADVANCING
MOISTURE FROM NERN TX AND INTO SRN OK.  CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY VIA
A PLUME OF H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 DEG C PER KM OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY IS RESULTING IN 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE...BUT A STOUT CAPPING
INVERSION AND THE ABSENCE OF UPPER FORCING WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

..SMITH.. 03/31/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 310041
SWODY1
SPC AC 310039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST STATES.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE CAROLINA GULF STREAM WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD INTO THE BASE OF A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC.  UPSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE...A SEWD-MIGRATING
PERTURBATION WILL MOVE FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT.  FARTHER W...A LOWER-LATITUDE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT EWD
INTO BAJA CA BY DAYBREAK WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE ORE/WA COAST LATE TONIGHT.

...NORTHEAST GULF COAST STATES...
THE ADVECTION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION ACCORDING TO
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAOB DATA AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY
GOING FORWARD THIS EVENING.  A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE INVOF
A DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED OVER THE REGION BEFORE NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION.

...SRN OK INTO WRN AR...
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL
SEEMINGLY EXIST ACROSS PRIMARILY SRN OK AND INTO PARTS OF WRN AR
LATE TONIGHT AS WEAK WAA IS IMPOSED ON LOW-LEVEL NWD-ADVANCING
MOISTURE FROM NERN TX AND INTO SRN OK.  CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY VIA
A PLUME OF H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 DEG C PER KM OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY IS RESULTING IN 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE...BUT A STOUT CAPPING
INVERSION AND THE ABSENCE OF UPPER FORCING WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

..SMITH.. 03/31/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 310041
SWODY1
SPC AC 310039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST STATES.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE CAROLINA GULF STREAM WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD INTO THE BASE OF A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC.  UPSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE...A SEWD-MIGRATING
PERTURBATION WILL MOVE FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT.  FARTHER W...A LOWER-LATITUDE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT EWD
INTO BAJA CA BY DAYBREAK WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE ORE/WA COAST LATE TONIGHT.

...NORTHEAST GULF COAST STATES...
THE ADVECTION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION ACCORDING TO
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAOB DATA AND THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY
GOING FORWARD THIS EVENING.  A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE INVOF
A DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED OVER THE REGION BEFORE NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION.

...SRN OK INTO WRN AR...
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL
SEEMINGLY EXIST ACROSS PRIMARILY SRN OK AND INTO PARTS OF WRN AR
LATE TONIGHT AS WEAK WAA IS IMPOSED ON LOW-LEVEL NWD-ADVANCING
MOISTURE FROM NERN TX AND INTO SRN OK.  CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY VIA
A PLUME OF H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 DEG C PER KM OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY IS RESULTING IN 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE...BUT A STOUT CAPPING
INVERSION AND THE ABSENCE OF UPPER FORCING WILL LIKELY LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY.

..SMITH.. 03/31/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 301947
SWODY1
SPC AC 301945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN AL INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...SERN U.S...

EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE SERN U.S.
REMAIN.  WEAK BUOYANCY...BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTEND
ACROSS SRN AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.  SCT TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS THE NRN FL PANHANDLE AND THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD SEWD INTO A MORE STABLE REGIME SHORTLY.  OTHER SHOWERS
ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ACROSS SERN GA AND ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 03/30/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

...SWRN GA...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE THE SRN EXTENT OF ASCENT ATTENDANT TO AN
ERN-CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCING PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
/LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS/ EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF E TX TO SRN AL AND
THE FL PANHANDLE. DEEP WLY/WNWLY FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS WILL BE
PROHIBITIVE OF SUBSTANTIAL POLEWARD FLUXES OF RICHER MOISTURE...AND
12Z RAOBS INDICATE THAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS LACKING /PW VALUES
GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH/. REGARDLESS...MODEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AT
THE NRN EXTENT OF THE MODIFIED-GULF-MOISTURE ZONE COUPLED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING MAY ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCENT GLANCES THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH
BACKGROUND DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS.
HOWEVER...ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE LACK OF RICHER
DEEP MOISTURE MAY BE HOSTILE FOR THE SUSTENANCE OF DEEP UPDRAFTS.
NEVERTHELESS...12Z JAN/LIX RAOBS SAMPLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND
7-8 C/KM SUGGESTING THAT UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS MAY BE ENHANCED IN
THE PRESENCE OF 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER
MAY SUPPORT SPLITTING CELLS WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL...POSSIBLY REACHING SVR THRESHOLDS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.

...ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SRN
ROCKIES AND VICINITY INTO SERN AZ WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR PRECEDING
A MIGRATORY MIDLEVEL CYCLONE OFF THE BAJA CA COAST. ISOLATED TSTMS
MAY ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT NEAR AND N OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WAA ALONG A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING
LLJ -- ALBEIT ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY MODEST MASS FLUXES. A FEW TSTMS
MAY ALSO AFFECT THE PACIFIC NW COAST TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO MAY AFFECT LOWER MI AND NRN OH
LATE TONIGHT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A MIDLEVEL
SPEED MAX CROSSES THE REGION...THOUGH A DEARTH OF MOISTURE AND
PAUCITY OF BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY LIMIT SUCH POTENTIAL. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 301947
SWODY1
SPC AC 301945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN AL INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...SERN U.S...

EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE SERN U.S.
REMAIN.  WEAK BUOYANCY...BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTEND
ACROSS SRN AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.  SCT TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS THE NRN FL PANHANDLE AND THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD SEWD INTO A MORE STABLE REGIME SHORTLY.  OTHER SHOWERS
ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ACROSS SERN GA AND ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 03/30/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

...SWRN GA...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE THE SRN EXTENT OF ASCENT ATTENDANT TO AN
ERN-CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCING PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
/LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS/ EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF E TX TO SRN AL AND
THE FL PANHANDLE. DEEP WLY/WNWLY FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS WILL BE
PROHIBITIVE OF SUBSTANTIAL POLEWARD FLUXES OF RICHER MOISTURE...AND
12Z RAOBS INDICATE THAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS LACKING /PW VALUES
GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH/. REGARDLESS...MODEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AT
THE NRN EXTENT OF THE MODIFIED-GULF-MOISTURE ZONE COUPLED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING MAY ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCENT GLANCES THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH
BACKGROUND DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS.
HOWEVER...ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE LACK OF RICHER
DEEP MOISTURE MAY BE HOSTILE FOR THE SUSTENANCE OF DEEP UPDRAFTS.
NEVERTHELESS...12Z JAN/LIX RAOBS SAMPLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND
7-8 C/KM SUGGESTING THAT UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS MAY BE ENHANCED IN
THE PRESENCE OF 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER
MAY SUPPORT SPLITTING CELLS WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL...POSSIBLY REACHING SVR THRESHOLDS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.

...ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SRN
ROCKIES AND VICINITY INTO SERN AZ WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR PRECEDING
A MIGRATORY MIDLEVEL CYCLONE OFF THE BAJA CA COAST. ISOLATED TSTMS
MAY ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT NEAR AND N OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WAA ALONG A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING
LLJ -- ALBEIT ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY MODEST MASS FLUXES. A FEW TSTMS
MAY ALSO AFFECT THE PACIFIC NW COAST TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO MAY AFFECT LOWER MI AND NRN OH
LATE TONIGHT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A MIDLEVEL
SPEED MAX CROSSES THE REGION...THOUGH A DEARTH OF MOISTURE AND
PAUCITY OF BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY LIMIT SUCH POTENTIAL. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 301947
SWODY1
SPC AC 301945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN AL INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...SERN U.S...

EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE SERN U.S.
REMAIN.  WEAK BUOYANCY...BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTEND
ACROSS SRN AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.  SCT TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS THE NRN FL PANHANDLE AND THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD SEWD INTO A MORE STABLE REGIME SHORTLY.  OTHER SHOWERS
ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ACROSS SERN GA AND ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 03/30/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

...SWRN GA...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE THE SRN EXTENT OF ASCENT ATTENDANT TO AN
ERN-CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCING PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
/LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS/ EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF E TX TO SRN AL AND
THE FL PANHANDLE. DEEP WLY/WNWLY FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS WILL BE
PROHIBITIVE OF SUBSTANTIAL POLEWARD FLUXES OF RICHER MOISTURE...AND
12Z RAOBS INDICATE THAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS LACKING /PW VALUES
GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH/. REGARDLESS...MODEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AT
THE NRN EXTENT OF THE MODIFIED-GULF-MOISTURE ZONE COUPLED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING MAY ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCENT GLANCES THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH
BACKGROUND DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS.
HOWEVER...ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE LACK OF RICHER
DEEP MOISTURE MAY BE HOSTILE FOR THE SUSTENANCE OF DEEP UPDRAFTS.
NEVERTHELESS...12Z JAN/LIX RAOBS SAMPLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND
7-8 C/KM SUGGESTING THAT UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS MAY BE ENHANCED IN
THE PRESENCE OF 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER
MAY SUPPORT SPLITTING CELLS WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL...POSSIBLY REACHING SVR THRESHOLDS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.

...ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SRN
ROCKIES AND VICINITY INTO SERN AZ WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR PRECEDING
A MIGRATORY MIDLEVEL CYCLONE OFF THE BAJA CA COAST. ISOLATED TSTMS
MAY ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT NEAR AND N OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WAA ALONG A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING
LLJ -- ALBEIT ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY MODEST MASS FLUXES. A FEW TSTMS
MAY ALSO AFFECT THE PACIFIC NW COAST TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO MAY AFFECT LOWER MI AND NRN OH
LATE TONIGHT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A MIDLEVEL
SPEED MAX CROSSES THE REGION...THOUGH A DEARTH OF MOISTURE AND
PAUCITY OF BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY LIMIT SUCH POTENTIAL. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 301947
SWODY1
SPC AC 301945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN AL INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...SERN U.S...

EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE SERN U.S.
REMAIN.  WEAK BUOYANCY...BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTEND
ACROSS SRN AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.  SCT TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS THE NRN FL PANHANDLE AND THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD SEWD INTO A MORE STABLE REGIME SHORTLY.  OTHER SHOWERS
ARE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ACROSS SERN GA AND ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 03/30/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

...SWRN GA...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE THE SRN EXTENT OF ASCENT ATTENDANT TO AN
ERN-CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCING PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
/LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS/ EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF E TX TO SRN AL AND
THE FL PANHANDLE. DEEP WLY/WNWLY FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS WILL BE
PROHIBITIVE OF SUBSTANTIAL POLEWARD FLUXES OF RICHER MOISTURE...AND
12Z RAOBS INDICATE THAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS LACKING /PW VALUES
GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH/. REGARDLESS...MODEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AT
THE NRN EXTENT OF THE MODIFIED-GULF-MOISTURE ZONE COUPLED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING MAY ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCENT GLANCES THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH
BACKGROUND DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS.
HOWEVER...ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE LACK OF RICHER
DEEP MOISTURE MAY BE HOSTILE FOR THE SUSTENANCE OF DEEP UPDRAFTS.
NEVERTHELESS...12Z JAN/LIX RAOBS SAMPLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND
7-8 C/KM SUGGESTING THAT UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS MAY BE ENHANCED IN
THE PRESENCE OF 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER
MAY SUPPORT SPLITTING CELLS WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL...POSSIBLY REACHING SVR THRESHOLDS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.

...ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SRN
ROCKIES AND VICINITY INTO SERN AZ WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR PRECEDING
A MIGRATORY MIDLEVEL CYCLONE OFF THE BAJA CA COAST. ISOLATED TSTMS
MAY ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT NEAR AND N OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WAA ALONG A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING
LLJ -- ALBEIT ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY MODEST MASS FLUXES. A FEW TSTMS
MAY ALSO AFFECT THE PACIFIC NW COAST TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO MAY AFFECT LOWER MI AND NRN OH
LATE TONIGHT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A MIDLEVEL
SPEED MAX CROSSES THE REGION...THOUGH A DEARTH OF MOISTURE AND
PAUCITY OF BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY LIMIT SUCH POTENTIAL. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.





000
ACUS11 KWNS 301811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301811
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-302045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN AL...FAR SRN GA...THE FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301811Z - 302045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING S OF A FRONTAL
ZONE AND ACCOMPANYING MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS THAT VIS IMAGERY/SFC
OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT FROM CNTRL MS TO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN AL/GA.
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED BAROCLINICITY ON THE FRINGES OF THESE
CLOUDS COUPLED WITH MODEST BACKGROUND FRONTAL ASCENT ARE LEADING TO
RECENT AGITATION IN CU FIELDS INVOF FAR SRN AL/FAR SWRN GA. ISOLATED
DEEPER CONVECTION SHOULD BLOSSOM FROM THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS OWING TO CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH THE
GRAZING INFLUENCE OF MIDLEVEL ASCENT AT THE SRN END OF AN ERN-CONUS
MIGRATORY TROUGH PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS.

MODIFICATIONS TO RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SFC
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 500-1250 J/KG OF MLCAPE -- ENHANCED BY
7-8-C/KM LAPSE RATES IN THE H7-H5 LAYER AS SAMPLED BY UPSTREAM 12Z
JAN/LIX RAOBS. WITH MODERATE WLY/WNWLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE-CLOUD LAYER EVIDENT IN VAX/TLH VWPS...RELATIVELY
LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS MAY FAVOR SPLITTING...MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL -- PERHAPS REACHING SVR
LEVELS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND RELATED WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND GIVEN ONLY MODEST
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /PW AROUND 0.75-1.00 INCH PER GPS
IMAGERY/...THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITH SVR-TSTM
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED.

..COHEN/HART.. 03/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30808309 30308288 30088413 30428644 30828764 31218796
            31368740 30808309





000
ACUS11 KWNS 301811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301811
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-302045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN AL...FAR SRN GA...THE FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301811Z - 302045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING S OF A FRONTAL
ZONE AND ACCOMPANYING MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS THAT VIS IMAGERY/SFC
OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT FROM CNTRL MS TO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN AL/GA.
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED BAROCLINICITY ON THE FRINGES OF THESE
CLOUDS COUPLED WITH MODEST BACKGROUND FRONTAL ASCENT ARE LEADING TO
RECENT AGITATION IN CU FIELDS INVOF FAR SRN AL/FAR SWRN GA. ISOLATED
DEEPER CONVECTION SHOULD BLOSSOM FROM THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS OWING TO CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH THE
GRAZING INFLUENCE OF MIDLEVEL ASCENT AT THE SRN END OF AN ERN-CONUS
MIGRATORY TROUGH PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS.

MODIFICATIONS TO RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SFC
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 500-1250 J/KG OF MLCAPE -- ENHANCED BY
7-8-C/KM LAPSE RATES IN THE H7-H5 LAYER AS SAMPLED BY UPSTREAM 12Z
JAN/LIX RAOBS. WITH MODERATE WLY/WNWLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE-CLOUD LAYER EVIDENT IN VAX/TLH VWPS...RELATIVELY
LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS MAY FAVOR SPLITTING...MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL -- PERHAPS REACHING SVR
LEVELS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND RELATED WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND GIVEN ONLY MODEST
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /PW AROUND 0.75-1.00 INCH PER GPS
IMAGERY/...THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITH SVR-TSTM
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED.

..COHEN/HART.. 03/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30808309 30308288 30088413 30428644 30828764 31218796
            31368740 30808309






000
ACUS11 KWNS 301811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301811
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-302045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN AL...FAR SRN GA...THE FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301811Z - 302045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING S OF A FRONTAL
ZONE AND ACCOMPANYING MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS THAT VIS IMAGERY/SFC
OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT FROM CNTRL MS TO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN AL/GA.
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED BAROCLINICITY ON THE FRINGES OF THESE
CLOUDS COUPLED WITH MODEST BACKGROUND FRONTAL ASCENT ARE LEADING TO
RECENT AGITATION IN CU FIELDS INVOF FAR SRN AL/FAR SWRN GA. ISOLATED
DEEPER CONVECTION SHOULD BLOSSOM FROM THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS OWING TO CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH THE
GRAZING INFLUENCE OF MIDLEVEL ASCENT AT THE SRN END OF AN ERN-CONUS
MIGRATORY TROUGH PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS.

MODIFICATIONS TO RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SFC
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 500-1250 J/KG OF MLCAPE -- ENHANCED BY
7-8-C/KM LAPSE RATES IN THE H7-H5 LAYER AS SAMPLED BY UPSTREAM 12Z
JAN/LIX RAOBS. WITH MODERATE WLY/WNWLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE-CLOUD LAYER EVIDENT IN VAX/TLH VWPS...RELATIVELY
LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS MAY FAVOR SPLITTING...MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL -- PERHAPS REACHING SVR
LEVELS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND RELATED WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND GIVEN ONLY MODEST
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /PW AROUND 0.75-1.00 INCH PER GPS
IMAGERY/...THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITH SVR-TSTM
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED.

..COHEN/HART.. 03/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30808309 30308288 30088413 30428644 30828764 31218796
            31368740 30808309





000
ACUS11 KWNS 301811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301811
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-302045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN AL...FAR SRN GA...THE FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301811Z - 302045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING S OF A FRONTAL
ZONE AND ACCOMPANYING MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS THAT VIS IMAGERY/SFC
OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT FROM CNTRL MS TO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN AL/GA.
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED BAROCLINICITY ON THE FRINGES OF THESE
CLOUDS COUPLED WITH MODEST BACKGROUND FRONTAL ASCENT ARE LEADING TO
RECENT AGITATION IN CU FIELDS INVOF FAR SRN AL/FAR SWRN GA. ISOLATED
DEEPER CONVECTION SHOULD BLOSSOM FROM THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS OWING TO CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH THE
GRAZING INFLUENCE OF MIDLEVEL ASCENT AT THE SRN END OF AN ERN-CONUS
MIGRATORY TROUGH PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS.

MODIFICATIONS TO RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SFC
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 500-1250 J/KG OF MLCAPE -- ENHANCED BY
7-8-C/KM LAPSE RATES IN THE H7-H5 LAYER AS SAMPLED BY UPSTREAM 12Z
JAN/LIX RAOBS. WITH MODERATE WLY/WNWLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE-CLOUD LAYER EVIDENT IN VAX/TLH VWPS...RELATIVELY
LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS MAY FAVOR SPLITTING...MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL -- PERHAPS REACHING SVR
LEVELS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND RELATED WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND GIVEN ONLY MODEST
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /PW AROUND 0.75-1.00 INCH PER GPS
IMAGERY/...THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITH SVR-TSTM
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED.

..COHEN/HART.. 03/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30808309 30308288 30088413 30428644 30828764 31218796
            31368740 30808309






000
ACUS11 KWNS 301811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301811
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-302045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN AL...FAR SRN GA...THE FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301811Z - 302045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING S OF A FRONTAL
ZONE AND ACCOMPANYING MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS THAT VIS IMAGERY/SFC
OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT FROM CNTRL MS TO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN AL/GA.
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED BAROCLINICITY ON THE FRINGES OF THESE
CLOUDS COUPLED WITH MODEST BACKGROUND FRONTAL ASCENT ARE LEADING TO
RECENT AGITATION IN CU FIELDS INVOF FAR SRN AL/FAR SWRN GA. ISOLATED
DEEPER CONVECTION SHOULD BLOSSOM FROM THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS OWING TO CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH THE
GRAZING INFLUENCE OF MIDLEVEL ASCENT AT THE SRN END OF AN ERN-CONUS
MIGRATORY TROUGH PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS.

MODIFICATIONS TO RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SFC
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 500-1250 J/KG OF MLCAPE -- ENHANCED BY
7-8-C/KM LAPSE RATES IN THE H7-H5 LAYER AS SAMPLED BY UPSTREAM 12Z
JAN/LIX RAOBS. WITH MODERATE WLY/WNWLY FLOW THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE-CLOUD LAYER EVIDENT IN VAX/TLH VWPS...RELATIVELY
LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS MAY FAVOR SPLITTING...MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL -- PERHAPS REACHING SVR
LEVELS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND RELATED WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND GIVEN ONLY MODEST
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /PW AROUND 0.75-1.00 INCH PER GPS
IMAGERY/...THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITH SVR-TSTM
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED.

..COHEN/HART.. 03/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30808309 30308288 30088413 30428644 30828764 31218796
            31368740 30808309





000
ACUS02 KWNS 301723
SWODY2
SPC AC 301722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT FROM WEST
TX THROUGH AR TO SRN GA/NRN FL...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. SCATTERED STORMS...A FEW
STRONG...ARE EXPECTED FROM ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA
NEAR 120W...DRIFTING SEWD IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.  THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO EJECT EWD TUESDAY WITH NRN PORTIONS OF
DEAMPLIFYING LOW EXPECTED NEAR THE BIG BEND OF WEST TX BY 01/00Z.
WHILE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TX...MODEST SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS SRN
OK.  WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
FOCUSED/SIGNIFICANT...STRONG HEATING ALONG DRY LINE SHOULD EASILY
REMOVE INHIBITION SUCH THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 22Z.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG DRY LINE ACROSS EXTREME SWRN OK INTO NWRN
TX SUGGEST SFC TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S...POSSIBLY
TO NEAR 90F IF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY THIN.  FOR THIS
REASON HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBS ACROSS SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX WHERE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BREACHED AND SBCAPE SHOULD BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG.  ANALOGS SUGGEST LARGE HAIL COULD BE NOTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND THIS IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.
CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING SHOULD PROPAGATE
SEWD ALONG/NEAR WARM FRONT INTO NONDESCRIPT LLJ ON THE ORDER OF
15KT.

...SERN U.S...

MODESTLY STRONG WNWLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS WILL EXTEND ACROSS AR INTO
SRN GA/NRN FL ALONG BACK SIDE OF ERN U.S. TROUGH.  MODELS SUGGEST A
WEAK TRANSITORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...OR AT LEAST SOME MID-LEVEL
COOLING...WILL SPREAD FROM NRN MS INTO AL AS HEIGHTS ARE SUPPRESSED
A BIT.  BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND WHILE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
PROVE SOMEWHAT MEAGER...SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  WILL
MAINTAIN MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION FOR WIND/HAIL BUT
SEVERE PROBS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED.

..DARROW.. 03/30/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 301723
SWODY2
SPC AC 301722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT FROM WEST
TX THROUGH AR TO SRN GA/NRN FL...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. SCATTERED STORMS...A FEW
STRONG...ARE EXPECTED FROM ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA
NEAR 120W...DRIFTING SEWD IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.  THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO EJECT EWD TUESDAY WITH NRN PORTIONS OF
DEAMPLIFYING LOW EXPECTED NEAR THE BIG BEND OF WEST TX BY 01/00Z.
WHILE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TX...MODEST SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ALONG WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS SRN
OK.  WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
FOCUSED/SIGNIFICANT...STRONG HEATING ALONG DRY LINE SHOULD EASILY
REMOVE INHIBITION SUCH THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 22Z.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG DRY LINE ACROSS EXTREME SWRN OK INTO NWRN
TX SUGGEST SFC TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S...POSSIBLY
TO NEAR 90F IF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY THIN.  FOR THIS
REASON HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBS ACROSS SWRN OK INTO NWRN TX WHERE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BREACHED AND SBCAPE SHOULD BE ON
THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG.  ANALOGS SUGGEST LARGE HAIL COULD BE NOTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND THIS IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.
CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING SHOULD PROPAGATE
SEWD ALONG/NEAR WARM FRONT INTO NONDESCRIPT LLJ ON THE ORDER OF
15KT.

...SERN U.S...

MODESTLY STRONG WNWLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS WILL EXTEND ACROSS AR INTO
SRN GA/NRN FL ALONG BACK SIDE OF ERN U.S. TROUGH.  MODELS SUGGEST A
WEAK TRANSITORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...OR AT LEAST SOME MID-LEVEL
COOLING...WILL SPREAD FROM NRN MS INTO AL AS HEIGHTS ARE SUPPRESSED
A BIT.  BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND WHILE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
PROVE SOMEWHAT MEAGER...SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  WILL
MAINTAIN MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION FOR WIND/HAIL BUT
SEVERE PROBS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
IS STRONGER THAN EXPECTED.

..DARROW.. 03/30/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 301619
SWODY1
SPC AC 301617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN AL...SW GA...FL
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...SWRN GA...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE THE SRN EXTENT OF ASCENT ATTENDANT TO AN
ERN-CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCING PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
/LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS/ EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF E TX TO SRN AL AND
THE FL PANHANDLE. DEEP WLY/WNWLY FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS WILL BE
PROHIBITIVE OF SUBSTANTIAL POLEWARD FLUXES OF RICHER MOISTURE...AND
12Z RAOBS INDICATE THAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS LACKING /PW VALUES
GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH/. REGARDLESS...MODEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AT
THE NRN EXTENT OF THE MODIFIED-GULF-MOISTURE ZONE COUPLED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING MAY ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCENT GLANCES THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH
BACKGROUND DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS.
HOWEVER...ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE LACK OF RICHER
DEEP MOISTURE MAY BE HOSTILE FOR THE SUSTENANCE OF DEEP UPDRAFTS.
NEVERTHELESS...12Z JAN/LIX RAOBS SAMPLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND
7-8 C/KM SUGGESTING THAT UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS MAY BE ENHANCED IN
THE PRESENCE OF 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER
MAY SUPPORT SPLITTING CELLS WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL...POSSIBLY REACHING SVR THRESHOLDS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.

...ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SRN
ROCKIES AND VICINITY INTO SERN AZ WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR PRECEDING
A MIGRATORY MIDLEVEL CYCLONE OFF THE BAJA CA COAST. ISOLATED TSTMS
MAY ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT NEAR AND N OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WAA ALONG A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING
LLJ -- ALBEIT ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY MODEST MASS FLUXES. A FEW TSTMS
MAY ALSO AFFECT THE PACIFIC NW COAST TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO MAY AFFECT LOWER MI AND NRN OH
LATE TONIGHT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A MIDLEVEL
SPEED MAX CROSSES THE REGION...THOUGH A DEARTH OF MOISTURE AND
PAUCITY OF BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY LIMIT SUCH POTENTIAL. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

..COHEN.. 03/30/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 301619
SWODY1
SPC AC 301617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN AL...SW GA...FL
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...SWRN GA...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE THE SRN EXTENT OF ASCENT ATTENDANT TO AN
ERN-CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCING PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
/LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS/ EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF E TX TO SRN AL AND
THE FL PANHANDLE. DEEP WLY/WNWLY FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS WILL BE
PROHIBITIVE OF SUBSTANTIAL POLEWARD FLUXES OF RICHER MOISTURE...AND
12Z RAOBS INDICATE THAT DEEPER MOISTURE IS LACKING /PW VALUES
GENERALLY AOB 1 INCH/. REGARDLESS...MODEST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AT
THE NRN EXTENT OF THE MODIFIED-GULF-MOISTURE ZONE COUPLED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING MAY ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCENT GLANCES THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH
BACKGROUND DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS.
HOWEVER...ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE LACK OF RICHER
DEEP MOISTURE MAY BE HOSTILE FOR THE SUSTENANCE OF DEEP UPDRAFTS.
NEVERTHELESS...12Z JAN/LIX RAOBS SAMPLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND
7-8 C/KM SUGGESTING THAT UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS MAY BE ENHANCED IN
THE PRESENCE OF 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER
MAY SUPPORT SPLITTING CELLS WITH LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL...POSSIBLY REACHING SVR THRESHOLDS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.

...ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SRN
ROCKIES AND VICINITY INTO SERN AZ WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR PRECEDING
A MIGRATORY MIDLEVEL CYCLONE OFF THE BAJA CA COAST. ISOLATED TSTMS
MAY ALSO OCCUR TONIGHT NEAR AND N OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WAA ALONG A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING
LLJ -- ALBEIT ACCOMPANIED BY ONLY MODEST MASS FLUXES. A FEW TSTMS
MAY ALSO AFFECT THE PACIFIC NW COAST TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES. AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO MAY AFFECT LOWER MI AND NRN OH
LATE TONIGHT AS FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF A MIDLEVEL
SPEED MAX CROSSES THE REGION...THOUGH A DEARTH OF MOISTURE AND
PAUCITY OF BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY LIMIT SUCH POTENTIAL. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

..COHEN.. 03/30/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 301240
SWODY1
SPC AC 301238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS SRN AL...SW
GA...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
AFTER WEAKENING OF MORNING STORMS...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND VICINITY...AS WELL AS ALONG
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

...EXTREME SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SW GA TODAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS ESEWD TO THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST BY ABOUT 21Z...AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT DRIFTS SWD
ACROSS GA/AL/MS.  ONGOING STORMS IN A BAND THIS MORNING FROM E
CENTRAL MS INTO CENTRAL AL AND N GA ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MID
MORNING.  JUST S OF THE ONGOING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 60 F IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SUCH THAT MLCAPE COULD APPROACH
1000 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS AREA WILL BE SOURCES FOR ASCENT TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM 18-21Z.  THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OF NE EDGE OF THE MOIST SECTOR NEAR OR
JUST AFTER 18Z...LEAVING THE REMNANT OUTFLOW/FRONT AS THE ONLY
IDENTIFIABLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.  ALSO...LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDLEVEL WAVE
PASSAGE...LEAVING AN ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL MODERATE BUOYANCY
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...BUT LITTLE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS.  WILL RETAIN LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES IN CASE ADDITIONAL
STORMS FORM NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDDAY ALONG THE RESIDUAL SURFACE
BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

...ELSEWHERE LATE TONIGHT...
A WEAK WAA REGIME WILL DEVELOP OVER SE OK AND THE ARKLATEX...ON THE
NE EDGE OF THE RETURN MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS TX.  CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...THOUGH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION MAY OCCUR NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD INVOF SE OK.  WELL TO THE NW...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL REACH THE PAC NW COAST BY 09-12Z.  STEEPENING LOW-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD SUPPORT THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 03/30/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 301240
SWODY1
SPC AC 301238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS SRN AL...SW
GA...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
AFTER WEAKENING OF MORNING STORMS...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND VICINITY...AS WELL AS ALONG
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

...EXTREME SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SW GA TODAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS ESEWD TO THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST BY ABOUT 21Z...AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT DRIFTS SWD
ACROSS GA/AL/MS.  ONGOING STORMS IN A BAND THIS MORNING FROM E
CENTRAL MS INTO CENTRAL AL AND N GA ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MID
MORNING.  JUST S OF THE ONGOING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 60 F IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SUCH THAT MLCAPE COULD APPROACH
1000 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS AREA WILL BE SOURCES FOR ASCENT TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM 18-21Z.  THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OF NE EDGE OF THE MOIST SECTOR NEAR OR
JUST AFTER 18Z...LEAVING THE REMNANT OUTFLOW/FRONT AS THE ONLY
IDENTIFIABLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.  ALSO...LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDLEVEL WAVE
PASSAGE...LEAVING AN ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL MODERATE BUOYANCY
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...BUT LITTLE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS.  WILL RETAIN LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES IN CASE ADDITIONAL
STORMS FORM NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDDAY ALONG THE RESIDUAL SURFACE
BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

...ELSEWHERE LATE TONIGHT...
A WEAK WAA REGIME WILL DEVELOP OVER SE OK AND THE ARKLATEX...ON THE
NE EDGE OF THE RETURN MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS TX.  CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...THOUGH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION MAY OCCUR NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD INVOF SE OK.  WELL TO THE NW...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL REACH THE PAC NW COAST BY 09-12Z.  STEEPENING LOW-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD SUPPORT THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 03/30/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 301240
SWODY1
SPC AC 301238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS SRN AL...SW
GA...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
AFTER WEAKENING OF MORNING STORMS...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND VICINITY...AS WELL AS ALONG
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

...EXTREME SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SW GA TODAY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL PROGRESS ESEWD TO THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST BY ABOUT 21Z...AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT DRIFTS SWD
ACROSS GA/AL/MS.  ONGOING STORMS IN A BAND THIS MORNING FROM E
CENTRAL MS INTO CENTRAL AL AND N GA ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY MID
MORNING.  JUST S OF THE ONGOING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 60 F IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SUCH THAT MLCAPE COULD APPROACH
1000 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS AREA WILL BE SOURCES FOR ASCENT TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM 18-21Z.  THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OF NE EDGE OF THE MOIST SECTOR NEAR OR
JUST AFTER 18Z...LEAVING THE REMNANT OUTFLOW/FRONT AS THE ONLY
IDENTIFIABLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.  ALSO...LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND SHEAR WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDLEVEL WAVE
PASSAGE...LEAVING AN ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL MODERATE BUOYANCY
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...BUT LITTLE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS.  WILL RETAIN LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES IN CASE ADDITIONAL
STORMS FORM NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDDAY ALONG THE RESIDUAL SURFACE
BOUNDARY...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

...ELSEWHERE LATE TONIGHT...
A WEAK WAA REGIME WILL DEVELOP OVER SE OK AND THE ARKLATEX...ON THE
NE EDGE OF THE RETURN MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS TX.  CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...THOUGH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION MAY OCCUR NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD INVOF SE OK.  WELL TO THE NW...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL REACH THE PAC NW COAST BY 09-12Z.  STEEPENING LOW-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD SUPPORT THE RISK OF
ISOLATED/LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 03/30/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 300732
SWODY3
SPC AC 300730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GREAT
PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
SRN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES
INTO THE NRN GREAT PLAINS BY WED AFTERNOON...WITH THIS FEATURE
LIKELY AMPLIFYING WED NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SRN
SASKATCHEWAN TO NW ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP E/S...LIKELY
OCCLUDED FROM CNTRL MN N...WITH TRAILING PORTION INTERSECTING A LEE
CYCLONE NEAR WRN KS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH PLACEMENT OF THE
DRYLINE...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS IT WILL MIX E ACROSS MOST OF SW
KS/FAR W OK AND W TX.

...UPPER MIDWEST TO CNTRL GREAT PLAINS...
POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF A MODIFIED SRN GREAT PLAINS AIR MASS WILL
STRENGTHEN LATE D2 IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WITH STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING OVER THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RESULT IN A PLUME OF 50S SURFACE
DEW POINTS REACHING INTO PARTS OF SRN MN AND THE MID-MO TO MID-MS
VALLEYS BENEATH A PERVASIVE EML. MODERATE SPATIAL DIFFERENCES EXIST
IN GUIDANCE WITH BOTH THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE ON
WED AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR LOCATION OF SURFACE-BASED
TSTM INITIATION. CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES IN CONJUNCTION
WITH DECREASING INHIBITION SHOULD FOSTER SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
FOSTER LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY INITIAL RISK. BUT AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS INCREASE AND 700-500 MB SWLYS STRENGTHEN DURING THE
EVENING...THIS SHOULD YIELD A PREDOMINANT LINEAR MODE TO CONVECTION.
LEWP/BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A MIX OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. AN
MCS MAY LINGER SEWD WED NIGHT TOWARDS THE LOWER MO VALLEY AS A
STRONG LLJ OFFSETS INCREASING MLCIN.

..GRAMS.. 03/30/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 300732
SWODY3
SPC AC 300730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GREAT
PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
SRN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES
INTO THE NRN GREAT PLAINS BY WED AFTERNOON...WITH THIS FEATURE
LIKELY AMPLIFYING WED NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SRN
SASKATCHEWAN TO NW ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP E/S...LIKELY
OCCLUDED FROM CNTRL MN N...WITH TRAILING PORTION INTERSECTING A LEE
CYCLONE NEAR WRN KS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH PLACEMENT OF THE
DRYLINE...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS IT WILL MIX E ACROSS MOST OF SW
KS/FAR W OK AND W TX.

...UPPER MIDWEST TO CNTRL GREAT PLAINS...
POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF A MODIFIED SRN GREAT PLAINS AIR MASS WILL
STRENGTHEN LATE D2 IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WITH STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING OVER THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RESULT IN A PLUME OF 50S SURFACE
DEW POINTS REACHING INTO PARTS OF SRN MN AND THE MID-MO TO MID-MS
VALLEYS BENEATH A PERVASIVE EML. MODERATE SPATIAL DIFFERENCES EXIST
IN GUIDANCE WITH BOTH THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE ON
WED AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR LOCATION OF SURFACE-BASED
TSTM INITIATION. CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES IN CONJUNCTION
WITH DECREASING INHIBITION SHOULD FOSTER SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
FOSTER LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY INITIAL RISK. BUT AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS INCREASE AND 700-500 MB SWLYS STRENGTHEN DURING THE
EVENING...THIS SHOULD YIELD A PREDOMINANT LINEAR MODE TO CONVECTION.
LEWP/BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A MIX OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. AN
MCS MAY LINGER SEWD WED NIGHT TOWARDS THE LOWER MO VALLEY AS A
STRONG LLJ OFFSETS INCREASING MLCIN.

..GRAMS.. 03/30/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 300732
SWODY3
SPC AC 300730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GREAT
PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
SRN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES
INTO THE NRN GREAT PLAINS BY WED AFTERNOON...WITH THIS FEATURE
LIKELY AMPLIFYING WED NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SRN
SASKATCHEWAN TO NW ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP E/S...LIKELY
OCCLUDED FROM CNTRL MN N...WITH TRAILING PORTION INTERSECTING A LEE
CYCLONE NEAR WRN KS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH PLACEMENT OF THE
DRYLINE...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS IT WILL MIX E ACROSS MOST OF SW
KS/FAR W OK AND W TX.

...UPPER MIDWEST TO CNTRL GREAT PLAINS...
POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF A MODIFIED SRN GREAT PLAINS AIR MASS WILL
STRENGTHEN LATE D2 IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WITH STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING OVER THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RESULT IN A PLUME OF 50S SURFACE
DEW POINTS REACHING INTO PARTS OF SRN MN AND THE MID-MO TO MID-MS
VALLEYS BENEATH A PERVASIVE EML. MODERATE SPATIAL DIFFERENCES EXIST
IN GUIDANCE WITH BOTH THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE ON
WED AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR LOCATION OF SURFACE-BASED
TSTM INITIATION. CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES IN CONJUNCTION
WITH DECREASING INHIBITION SHOULD FOSTER SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
FOSTER LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY INITIAL RISK. BUT AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS INCREASE AND 700-500 MB SWLYS STRENGTHEN DURING THE
EVENING...THIS SHOULD YIELD A PREDOMINANT LINEAR MODE TO CONVECTION.
LEWP/BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A MIX OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. AN
MCS MAY LINGER SEWD WED NIGHT TOWARDS THE LOWER MO VALLEY AS A
STRONG LLJ OFFSETS INCREASING MLCIN.

..GRAMS.. 03/30/2015





000
ACUS03 KWNS 300732
SWODY3
SPC AC 300730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GREAT
PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
SRN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES
INTO THE NRN GREAT PLAINS BY WED AFTERNOON...WITH THIS FEATURE
LIKELY AMPLIFYING WED NIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SRN
SASKATCHEWAN TO NW ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP E/S...LIKELY
OCCLUDED FROM CNTRL MN N...WITH TRAILING PORTION INTERSECTING A LEE
CYCLONE NEAR WRN KS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH PLACEMENT OF THE
DRYLINE...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS IT WILL MIX E ACROSS MOST OF SW
KS/FAR W OK AND W TX.

...UPPER MIDWEST TO CNTRL GREAT PLAINS...
POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF A MODIFIED SRN GREAT PLAINS AIR MASS WILL
STRENGTHEN LATE D2 IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WITH STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING OVER THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD RESULT IN A PLUME OF 50S SURFACE
DEW POINTS REACHING INTO PARTS OF SRN MN AND THE MID-MO TO MID-MS
VALLEYS BENEATH A PERVASIVE EML. MODERATE SPATIAL DIFFERENCES EXIST
IN GUIDANCE WITH BOTH THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE ON
WED AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR LOCATION OF SURFACE-BASED
TSTM INITIATION. CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES IN CONJUNCTION
WITH DECREASING INHIBITION SHOULD FOSTER SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
FOSTER LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY INITIAL RISK. BUT AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS INCREASE AND 700-500 MB SWLYS STRENGTHEN DURING THE
EVENING...THIS SHOULD YIELD A PREDOMINANT LINEAR MODE TO CONVECTION.
LEWP/BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A MIX OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. AN
MCS MAY LINGER SEWD WED NIGHT TOWARDS THE LOWER MO VALLEY AS A
STRONG LLJ OFFSETS INCREASING MLCIN.

..GRAMS.. 03/30/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 300537
SWODY2
SPC AC 300536

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
S-CNTRL/SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A FEW
CLUSTERS PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS...WHILE A RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A WEAK SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN SLIGHTLY
AS PROGRESSES INTO TX BY EARLY WED. SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTH
SHOULD CONSIST OF A DIFFUSE LEAD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING N OVER THE
SRN GREAT PLAINS TO DEEP SOUTH...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY FROM A CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX E ACROSS PARTS OF W TX
AND PERHAPS EXTREME W OK TUE AFTERNOON.

...S-CNTRL/SOUTHEAST STATES...
30/00Z KDRT/KFWD/KSHV RAOBS SAMPLED MEAN MIXING RATIOS AROUND 8-9
G/KG NEAR THE LEAD FRONT WITH 10-11 G/KG RATIOS ALONG THE WRN/CNTRL
GULF COAST. BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BENEATH AN INITIALLY PERVASIVE EML
PLUME. BUT GUIDANCE APPEARS LARGELY OVERDONE WITH DEPICTING 12-13
G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIOS ALONG THIS LEAD FRONT ON TUE AFTERNOON.
NEVERTHELESS...STRONG DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING AMIDST RELATIVELY
COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD YIELD A BROAD WEAK TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH DIMINISHING MLCIN RELATIVE TO PRIOR DAYS.
SPATIAL DETAILS OF WHEN/WHERE CONVECTION WILL FORM APPEAR UNCLEAR
GIVEN SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE
AND THE PAIR OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
TSTMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG OVER THE MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY UNDER
THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHEAST TROUGH. PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY HERE IS JUST HOW MOIST THE AIR MASS WILL BE ON THE
FRINGE OF GREATER INSTABILITY. FARTHER WEST ALONG THE RED RIVER
AREA...INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGER BUT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN
WITH WRN EXTENT AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN THE NRN GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN
FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS TO WARRANT
MESOSCALE UPGRADES TO SLIGHT RISK THIS OUTLOOK.

..GRAMS.. 03/30/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 300537
SWODY2
SPC AC 300536

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
S-CNTRL/SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A FEW
CLUSTERS PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS...WHILE A RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A WEAK SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN SLIGHTLY
AS PROGRESSES INTO TX BY EARLY WED. SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTH
SHOULD CONSIST OF A DIFFUSE LEAD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING N OVER THE
SRN GREAT PLAINS TO DEEP SOUTH...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY FROM A CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX E ACROSS PARTS OF W TX
AND PERHAPS EXTREME W OK TUE AFTERNOON.

...S-CNTRL/SOUTHEAST STATES...
30/00Z KDRT/KFWD/KSHV RAOBS SAMPLED MEAN MIXING RATIOS AROUND 8-9
G/KG NEAR THE LEAD FRONT WITH 10-11 G/KG RATIOS ALONG THE WRN/CNTRL
GULF COAST. BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BENEATH AN INITIALLY PERVASIVE EML
PLUME. BUT GUIDANCE APPEARS LARGELY OVERDONE WITH DEPICTING 12-13
G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIOS ALONG THIS LEAD FRONT ON TUE AFTERNOON.
NEVERTHELESS...STRONG DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING AMIDST RELATIVELY
COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD YIELD A BROAD WEAK TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH DIMINISHING MLCIN RELATIVE TO PRIOR DAYS.
SPATIAL DETAILS OF WHEN/WHERE CONVECTION WILL FORM APPEAR UNCLEAR
GIVEN SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE
AND THE PAIR OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
TSTMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG OVER THE MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY UNDER
THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHEAST TROUGH. PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY HERE IS JUST HOW MOIST THE AIR MASS WILL BE ON THE
FRINGE OF GREATER INSTABILITY. FARTHER WEST ALONG THE RED RIVER
AREA...INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGER BUT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN
WITH WRN EXTENT AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN THE NRN GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN
FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS TO WARRANT
MESOSCALE UPGRADES TO SLIGHT RISK THIS OUTLOOK.

..GRAMS.. 03/30/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 300537
SWODY2
SPC AC 300536

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
S-CNTRL/SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A FEW
CLUSTERS PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS...WHILE A RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A WEAK SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN SLIGHTLY
AS PROGRESSES INTO TX BY EARLY WED. SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTH
SHOULD CONSIST OF A DIFFUSE LEAD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING N OVER THE
SRN GREAT PLAINS TO DEEP SOUTH...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY FROM A CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX E ACROSS PARTS OF W TX
AND PERHAPS EXTREME W OK TUE AFTERNOON.

...S-CNTRL/SOUTHEAST STATES...
30/00Z KDRT/KFWD/KSHV RAOBS SAMPLED MEAN MIXING RATIOS AROUND 8-9
G/KG NEAR THE LEAD FRONT WITH 10-11 G/KG RATIOS ALONG THE WRN/CNTRL
GULF COAST. BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BENEATH AN INITIALLY PERVASIVE EML
PLUME. BUT GUIDANCE APPEARS LARGELY OVERDONE WITH DEPICTING 12-13
G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIOS ALONG THIS LEAD FRONT ON TUE AFTERNOON.
NEVERTHELESS...STRONG DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING AMIDST RELATIVELY
COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD YIELD A BROAD WEAK TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH DIMINISHING MLCIN RELATIVE TO PRIOR DAYS.
SPATIAL DETAILS OF WHEN/WHERE CONVECTION WILL FORM APPEAR UNCLEAR
GIVEN SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE
AND THE PAIR OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
TSTMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG OVER THE MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY UNDER
THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHEAST TROUGH. PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY HERE IS JUST HOW MOIST THE AIR MASS WILL BE ON THE
FRINGE OF GREATER INSTABILITY. FARTHER WEST ALONG THE RED RIVER
AREA...INSTABILITY WILL BE LARGER BUT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN
WITH WRN EXTENT AS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN THE NRN GREAT
PLAINS RIDGE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN
FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS TO WARRANT
MESOSCALE UPGRADES TO SLIGHT RISK THIS OUTLOOK.

..GRAMS.. 03/30/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 300433
SWODY1
SPC AC 300431

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST MS TO SOUTHWEST
GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS AS WELL AS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

...SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC TODAY. ACROSS THE WEST...A RIDGE WILL EXIST FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LEAD TO MODEST MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND TO THE SOUTH OF A SFC COLD FRONT FROM
SOUTHERN MS...AL AND GA.

...SOUTHEAST MS...SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHWEST GA AND PORTIONS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE...

SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S BY AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS WILL AID IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK...AS WILL
FORCING FOR ASCENT. DETERMINISTIC AND HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING FROM SE MS TO SW GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE IN THE VICINITY OF
A WEAK SFC TROUGH...AND ON THE FRINGES OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES AND
WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS...STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON
DIURNAL PROCESSES. HOWEVER...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR -16 TO -18 DEGREES C WILL POSE A CONDITIONAL HAIL
THREAT. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS WELL.  GIVEN THE
CONDITIONAL...AND ISOLATED...NATURE OF THE THREAT...A MARGINAL AREA
WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY 2 OUTLOOK.

..LEITMAN/PETERS.. 03/30/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 300433
SWODY1
SPC AC 300431

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST MS TO SOUTHWEST
GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS AS WELL AS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

...SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC TODAY. ACROSS THE WEST...A RIDGE WILL EXIST FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LEAD TO MODEST MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND TO THE SOUTH OF A SFC COLD FRONT FROM
SOUTHERN MS...AL AND GA.

...SOUTHEAST MS...SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHWEST GA AND PORTIONS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE...

SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S BY AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS WILL AID IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK...AS WILL
FORCING FOR ASCENT. DETERMINISTIC AND HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING FROM SE MS TO SW GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE IN THE VICINITY OF
A WEAK SFC TROUGH...AND ON THE FRINGES OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES AND
WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS...STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON
DIURNAL PROCESSES. HOWEVER...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR -16 TO -18 DEGREES C WILL POSE A CONDITIONAL HAIL
THREAT. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS WELL.  GIVEN THE
CONDITIONAL...AND ISOLATED...NATURE OF THE THREAT...A MARGINAL AREA
WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY 2 OUTLOOK.

..LEITMAN/PETERS.. 03/30/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 300433
SWODY1
SPC AC 300431

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST MS TO SOUTHWEST
GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
FROM SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO...NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA.
OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE
WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS AS WELL AS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

...SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC TODAY. ACROSS THE WEST...A RIDGE WILL EXIST FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LEAD TO MODEST MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND TO THE SOUTH OF A SFC COLD FRONT FROM
SOUTHERN MS...AL AND GA.

...SOUTHEAST MS...SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHWEST GA AND PORTIONS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE...

SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW 60S BY AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS WILL AID IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK...AS WILL
FORCING FOR ASCENT. DETERMINISTIC AND HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW
STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING FROM SE MS TO SW GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE IN THE VICINITY OF
A WEAK SFC TROUGH...AND ON THE FRINGES OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES AND
WEAK FORCING MECHANISMS...STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON
DIURNAL PROCESSES. HOWEVER...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR -16 TO -18 DEGREES C WILL POSE A CONDITIONAL HAIL
THREAT. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS WELL.  GIVEN THE
CONDITIONAL...AND ISOLATED...NATURE OF THE THREAT...A MARGINAL AREA
WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY 2 OUTLOOK.

..LEITMAN/PETERS.. 03/30/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 300358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300357
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-300600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH NRN MS AND SWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 300357Z - 300600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING FROM SRN AR THROUGH NRN MS AND SWRN TN. A FEW STORMS MIGHT
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL...AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE FROM ERN AR INTO NRN MS AND SWRN TN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH A SWLY LLJ AND WHERE DEEPER
FORCING ACCOMPANYING A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ERODED THE
CAPPING INVERSION. THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED AND DECOUPLED FROM
BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE WHERE STEEPER /7-7.5 C/KM/ MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERLAP NERN
EXTENT OF MOIST AXIS. THE STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. ACTIVITY IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN 45-55 KT FLOW
THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE LAYER SO GUSTY SFC WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY THE
STABILIZING SFC LAYER AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34579053 35158951 35418874 35278822 34558825 33748984
            33159242 33619297 34049169 34579053





000
ACUS11 KWNS 300358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300357
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-300600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH NRN MS AND SWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 300357Z - 300600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING FROM SRN AR THROUGH NRN MS AND SWRN TN. A FEW STORMS MIGHT
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL...AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE FROM ERN AR INTO NRN MS AND SWRN TN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH A SWLY LLJ AND WHERE DEEPER
FORCING ACCOMPANYING A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ERODED THE
CAPPING INVERSION. THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED AND DECOUPLED FROM
BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE WHERE STEEPER /7-7.5 C/KM/ MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERLAP NERN
EXTENT OF MOIST AXIS. THE STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. ACTIVITY IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN 45-55 KT FLOW
THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE LAYER SO GUSTY SFC WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY THE
STABILIZING SFC LAYER AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34579053 35158951 35418874 35278822 34558825 33748984
            33159242 33619297 34049169 34579053





000
ACUS11 KWNS 300358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300357
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-300600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH NRN MS AND SWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 300357Z - 300600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING FROM SRN AR THROUGH NRN MS AND SWRN TN. A FEW STORMS MIGHT
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL...AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE FROM ERN AR INTO NRN MS AND SWRN TN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH A SWLY LLJ AND WHERE DEEPER
FORCING ACCOMPANYING A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ERODED THE
CAPPING INVERSION. THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED AND DECOUPLED FROM
BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE WHERE STEEPER /7-7.5 C/KM/ MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERLAP NERN
EXTENT OF MOIST AXIS. THE STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. ACTIVITY IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN 45-55 KT FLOW
THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE LAYER SO GUSTY SFC WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY THE
STABILIZING SFC LAYER AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34579053 35158951 35418874 35278822 34558825 33748984
            33159242 33619297 34049169 34579053





000
ACUS11 KWNS 300358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300357
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-300600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH NRN MS AND SWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 300357Z - 300600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING FROM SRN AR THROUGH NRN MS AND SWRN TN. A FEW STORMS MIGHT
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL...AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE FROM ERN AR INTO NRN MS AND SWRN TN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH A SWLY LLJ AND WHERE DEEPER
FORCING ACCOMPANYING A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ERODED THE
CAPPING INVERSION. THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED AND DECOUPLED FROM
BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE WHERE STEEPER /7-7.5 C/KM/ MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERLAP NERN
EXTENT OF MOIST AXIS. THE STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. ACTIVITY IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN 45-55 KT FLOW
THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE LAYER SO GUSTY SFC WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY THE
STABILIZING SFC LAYER AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34579053 35158951 35418874 35278822 34558825 33748984
            33159242 33619297 34049169 34579053






000
ACUS11 KWNS 300358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300357
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-300600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH NRN MS AND SWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 300357Z - 300600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL UNDERGO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING FROM SRN AR THROUGH NRN MS AND SWRN TN. A FEW STORMS MIGHT
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL...AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS EVENING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE
INCREASE FROM ERN AR INTO NRN MS AND SWRN TN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH A SWLY LLJ AND WHERE DEEPER
FORCING ACCOMPANYING A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS ERODED THE
CAPPING INVERSION. THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED AND DECOUPLED FROM
BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG
MUCAPE WHERE STEEPER /7-7.5 C/KM/ MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERLAP NERN
EXTENT OF MOIST AXIS. THE STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES. ACTIVITY IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN 45-55 KT FLOW
THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE LAYER SO GUSTY SFC WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY THE
STABILIZING SFC LAYER AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34579053 35158951 35418874 35278822 34558825 33748984
            33159242 33619297 34049169 34579053





000
ACUS01 KWNS 300046
SWODY1
SPC AC 300044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST TN AND NORTHERN MS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL TONIGHT WITHIN AN AREA
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTWARD TO
THE MID-SOUTH.

...NORTHEAST TX TO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MIDLEVELS AND WEAK REMAINING CINH
/PER 00Z FWD RAOB/ APPEARS TO BE HINDERING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
STORM MAY STILL DEVELOP NEAR THE METROPLEX...POSING MAINLY A HAIL
THREAT IF IT OCCURS...BUT OVERALL THREAT REMAINS LIMITED. FURTHER
EAST...AN EML IS STILL PRESENT IN THE 00Z LZK RAOB BETWEEN
850-700MB. HOWEVER...DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALONG WITH POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INCREASING MOISTURE IN THAT
LAYER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE EML. AS
THIS OCCURS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT BUT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND
BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT. WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING
RATHER STEEP INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE MARGINAL RISK FROM NORTHEAST TX
TOWARD WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN MS.

..LEITMAN.. 03/30/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 300046
SWODY1
SPC AC 300044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST TN AND NORTHERN MS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL TONIGHT WITHIN AN AREA
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTWARD TO
THE MID-SOUTH.

...NORTHEAST TX TO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MIDLEVELS AND WEAK REMAINING CINH
/PER 00Z FWD RAOB/ APPEARS TO BE HINDERING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
STORM MAY STILL DEVELOP NEAR THE METROPLEX...POSING MAINLY A HAIL
THREAT IF IT OCCURS...BUT OVERALL THREAT REMAINS LIMITED. FURTHER
EAST...AN EML IS STILL PRESENT IN THE 00Z LZK RAOB BETWEEN
850-700MB. HOWEVER...DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALONG WITH POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INCREASING MOISTURE IN THAT
LAYER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE EML. AS
THIS OCCURS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT BUT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND
BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT. WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING
RATHER STEEP INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE MARGINAL RISK FROM NORTHEAST TX
TOWARD WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN MS.

..LEITMAN.. 03/30/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 300046
SWODY1
SPC AC 300044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST TN AND NORTHERN MS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL TONIGHT WITHIN AN AREA
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTWARD TO
THE MID-SOUTH.

...NORTHEAST TX TO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MIDLEVELS AND WEAK REMAINING CINH
/PER 00Z FWD RAOB/ APPEARS TO BE HINDERING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
STORM MAY STILL DEVELOP NEAR THE METROPLEX...POSING MAINLY A HAIL
THREAT IF IT OCCURS...BUT OVERALL THREAT REMAINS LIMITED. FURTHER
EAST...AN EML IS STILL PRESENT IN THE 00Z LZK RAOB BETWEEN
850-700MB. HOWEVER...DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALONG WITH POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INCREASING MOISTURE IN THAT
LAYER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE EML. AS
THIS OCCURS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT BUT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND
BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT. WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING
RATHER STEEP INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE MARGINAL RISK FROM NORTHEAST TX
TOWARD WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN MS.

..LEITMAN.. 03/30/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 300046
SWODY1
SPC AC 300044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST TN AND NORTHERN MS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL TONIGHT WITHIN AN AREA
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTWARD TO
THE MID-SOUTH.

...NORTHEAST TX TO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE LOW TO MIDLEVELS AND WEAK REMAINING CINH
/PER 00Z FWD RAOB/ APPEARS TO BE HINDERING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
STORM MAY STILL DEVELOP NEAR THE METROPLEX...POSING MAINLY A HAIL
THREAT IF IT OCCURS...BUT OVERALL THREAT REMAINS LIMITED. FURTHER
EAST...AN EML IS STILL PRESENT IN THE 00Z LZK RAOB BETWEEN
850-700MB. HOWEVER...DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALONG WITH POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INCREASING MOISTURE IN THAT
LAYER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EFFECTIVELY ERODING THE EML. AS
THIS OCCURS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT BUT WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND
BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT. WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING
RATHER STEEP INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE THE MARGINAL RISK FROM NORTHEAST TX
TOWARD WESTERN TN AND NORTHERN MS.

..LEITMAN.. 03/30/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 292203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292203
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-292330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...FAR
SOUTHEAST OK AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292203Z - 292330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STORMS WILL DEVELOP
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE METROPLEX AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD EXTREME
SOUTHWEST AR. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH THESE STORMS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AGITATED
CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG/NEAR THE SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OK SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MONTAGUE COUNTY IN TEXAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF A
TRIPLE POINT AND MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
SYNOPTIC LOW NEAR DYS. THESE LOW LEVEL FEATURES/CONVERGENCE COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN A FEW...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. FURTHERMORE...BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR
INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KT AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL
FAVOR AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE ROTATING CELLS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DCAPE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME STRONGER GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A DOWNBURST. HAIL ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE ISOLATED STORMS AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR
8.5 DEG C PER KM WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -15 DEG C.

WHILE THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH
ISSUANCE.

..LEITMAN/EDWARDS.. 03/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34349675 34579579 34599526 34089448 33409403 32939403
            32539475 32299537 32219646 32429727 32639768 32929799
            33559807 33899780 34189721 34349675






000
ACUS11 KWNS 292203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292203
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-292330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...FAR
SOUTHEAST OK AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292203Z - 292330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STORMS WILL DEVELOP
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE METROPLEX AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD EXTREME
SOUTHWEST AR. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH THESE STORMS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AGITATED
CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG/NEAR THE SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OK SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MONTAGUE COUNTY IN TEXAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF A
TRIPLE POINT AND MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
SYNOPTIC LOW NEAR DYS. THESE LOW LEVEL FEATURES/CONVERGENCE COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN A FEW...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. FURTHERMORE...BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR
INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KT AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL
FAVOR AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE ROTATING CELLS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DCAPE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME STRONGER GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A DOWNBURST. HAIL ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE ISOLATED STORMS AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR
8.5 DEG C PER KM WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -15 DEG C.

WHILE THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH
ISSUANCE.

..LEITMAN/EDWARDS.. 03/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34349675 34579579 34599526 34089448 33409403 32939403
            32539475 32299537 32219646 32429727 32639768 32929799
            33559807 33899780 34189721 34349675





000
ACUS11 KWNS 292203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292203
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-292330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...FAR
SOUTHEAST OK AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292203Z - 292330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STORMS WILL DEVELOP
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE METROPLEX AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD EXTREME
SOUTHWEST AR. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH THESE STORMS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AGITATED
CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG/NEAR THE SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OK SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MONTAGUE COUNTY IN TEXAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF A
TRIPLE POINT AND MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
SYNOPTIC LOW NEAR DYS. THESE LOW LEVEL FEATURES/CONVERGENCE COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN A FEW...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. FURTHERMORE...BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR
INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KT AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL
FAVOR AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE ROTATING CELLS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DCAPE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME STRONGER GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A DOWNBURST. HAIL ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE ISOLATED STORMS AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR
8.5 DEG C PER KM WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -15 DEG C.

WHILE THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH
ISSUANCE.

..LEITMAN/EDWARDS.. 03/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34349675 34579579 34599526 34089448 33409403 32939403
            32539475 32299537 32219646 32429727 32639768 32929799
            33559807 33899780 34189721 34349675





000
ACUS11 KWNS 292203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292203
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-292330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...FAR
SOUTHEAST OK AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292203Z - 292330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STORMS WILL DEVELOP
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE METROPLEX AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD EXTREME
SOUTHWEST AR. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH THESE STORMS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AGITATED
CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG/NEAR THE SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OK SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MONTAGUE COUNTY IN TEXAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF A
TRIPLE POINT AND MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
SYNOPTIC LOW NEAR DYS. THESE LOW LEVEL FEATURES/CONVERGENCE COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN A FEW...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. FURTHERMORE...BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR
INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KT AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL
FAVOR AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE ROTATING CELLS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DCAPE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME STRONGER GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A DOWNBURST. HAIL ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE ISOLATED STORMS AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR
8.5 DEG C PER KM WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -15 DEG C.

WHILE THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH
ISSUANCE.

..LEITMAN/EDWARDS.. 03/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34349675 34579579 34599526 34089448 33409403 32939403
            32539475 32299537 32219646 32429727 32639768 32929799
            33559807 33899780 34189721 34349675





000
ACUS11 KWNS 292203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292203
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-292330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...FAR
SOUTHEAST OK AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292203Z - 292330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STORMS WILL DEVELOP
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE METROPLEX AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD EXTREME
SOUTHWEST AR. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH THESE STORMS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AGITATED
CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG/NEAR THE SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OK SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MONTAGUE COUNTY IN TEXAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF A
TRIPLE POINT AND MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
SYNOPTIC LOW NEAR DYS. THESE LOW LEVEL FEATURES/CONVERGENCE COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN A FEW...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. FURTHERMORE...BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR
INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KT AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL
FAVOR AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE ROTATING CELLS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DCAPE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME STRONGER GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A DOWNBURST. HAIL ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE ISOLATED STORMS AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR
8.5 DEG C PER KM WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -15 DEG C.

WHILE THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH
ISSUANCE.

..LEITMAN/EDWARDS.. 03/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34349675 34579579 34599526 34089448 33409403 32939403
            32539475 32299537 32219646 32429727 32639768 32929799
            33559807 33899780 34189721 34349675






000
ACUS11 KWNS 292203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292203
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-292330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...FAR
SOUTHEAST OK AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292203Z - 292330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STORMS WILL DEVELOP
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE METROPLEX AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD EXTREME
SOUTHWEST AR. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH THESE STORMS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AGITATED
CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG/NEAR THE SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM NEAR CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OK SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MONTAGUE COUNTY IN TEXAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF A
TRIPLE POINT AND MESOSCALE SURFACE LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
SYNOPTIC LOW NEAR DYS. THESE LOW LEVEL FEATURES/CONVERGENCE COUPLED
WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN A FEW...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. FURTHERMORE...BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR
INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KT AND VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL
FAVOR AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE ROTATING CELLS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DCAPE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME STRONGER GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A DOWNBURST. HAIL ALSO WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE ISOLATED STORMS AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR
8.5 DEG C PER KM WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -15 DEG C.

WHILE THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH
ISSUANCE.

..LEITMAN/EDWARDS.. 03/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34349675 34579579 34599526 34089448 33409403 32939403
            32539475 32299537 32219646 32429727 32639768 32929799
            33559807 33899780 34189721 34349675





000
ACUS01 KWNS 291917
SWODY1
SPC AC 291915

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
WITHIN AN AREA EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS...EASTWARD TO THE MID-SOUTH.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..JEWELL.. 03/29/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EWD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS WHILE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A
DISTURBANCE AMPLIFYING FROM SRN MANITOBA. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE MIDLEVEL FEATURES WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS PORTIONS THE MS VALLEY
TO THE OH VALLEY AND TRAIL SWWD TO THE SRN PLAINS.

...SERN OK/NERN TX EWD TO THE MID-SOUTH...
THE RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WITH
50S-LOWER-60S SFC DEWPOINTS ANALYZED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/ERN TX.
PREFRONTAL SFC SLYS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A STEADY INFLUX OF
SIMILAR MOISTURE TOWARD THE RED RIVER OF THE SOUTH TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING ALOFT AT THE
BASE OF AN EML SAMPLED BY THE 12Z OUN AND FWD RAOBS WILL LIKELY KEEP
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MINIMAL DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.

BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BE INTERCEPTING THE AFOREMENTIONED
MODEST RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...FAVORABLY COINCIDENT WITH
GLANCING DCVA/FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...TO ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FURTHERMORE...WITH A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND MAXIMUM AUGMENTING
FRONT-PRECEDING WAA ALONG A LLJ /STRONGEST ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE 00Z-04Z PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ELEVATED ABOVE A NOCTURNALLY STABILIZING PBL LAYER AND
PERHAPS UNDERCUTTING BAROCLINIC ZONE.

THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME HAIL
POTENTIAL GIVEN 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR YIELDING ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES /POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS/. GIVEN H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7-8 C/KM SAMPLED BY 12Z FWD/OUN RAOBS...WITH SIMILAR VALUES
SPREADING EWD WITH TIME...NORMALIZED CAPE/UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST -- IN THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP
SHEAR -- FOR ISOLATED SVR-HAIL POTENTIAL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THIS SCENARIO IS AFFIRMED BY THE LATEST AVAILABLE
CONVECTION-PERMITTING MODEL GUIDANCE...AND WARRANTS THE UPGRADE TO
MARGINAL-RISK DELINEATION.

HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...AND
THE PROPENSITY FOR INCREASING CELL INTERACTIONS TO EVENTUALLY IMPEDE
INDIVIDUAL-CELL INFLOW IN THIS REGIME OF BOUNDARY-PARALLEL DEEP
FLOW...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 291917
SWODY1
SPC AC 291915

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
WITHIN AN AREA EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS...EASTWARD TO THE MID-SOUTH.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..JEWELL.. 03/29/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EWD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS WHILE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A
DISTURBANCE AMPLIFYING FROM SRN MANITOBA. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE MIDLEVEL FEATURES WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS PORTIONS THE MS VALLEY
TO THE OH VALLEY AND TRAIL SWWD TO THE SRN PLAINS.

...SERN OK/NERN TX EWD TO THE MID-SOUTH...
THE RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WITH
50S-LOWER-60S SFC DEWPOINTS ANALYZED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/ERN TX.
PREFRONTAL SFC SLYS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A STEADY INFLUX OF
SIMILAR MOISTURE TOWARD THE RED RIVER OF THE SOUTH TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING ALOFT AT THE
BASE OF AN EML SAMPLED BY THE 12Z OUN AND FWD RAOBS WILL LIKELY KEEP
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MINIMAL DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.

BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BE INTERCEPTING THE AFOREMENTIONED
MODEST RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...FAVORABLY COINCIDENT WITH
GLANCING DCVA/FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...TO ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FURTHERMORE...WITH A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND MAXIMUM AUGMENTING
FRONT-PRECEDING WAA ALONG A LLJ /STRONGEST ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE 00Z-04Z PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ELEVATED ABOVE A NOCTURNALLY STABILIZING PBL LAYER AND
PERHAPS UNDERCUTTING BAROCLINIC ZONE.

THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME HAIL
POTENTIAL GIVEN 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR YIELDING ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES /POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS/. GIVEN H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7-8 C/KM SAMPLED BY 12Z FWD/OUN RAOBS...WITH SIMILAR VALUES
SPREADING EWD WITH TIME...NORMALIZED CAPE/UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST -- IN THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP
SHEAR -- FOR ISOLATED SVR-HAIL POTENTIAL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THIS SCENARIO IS AFFIRMED BY THE LATEST AVAILABLE
CONVECTION-PERMITTING MODEL GUIDANCE...AND WARRANTS THE UPGRADE TO
MARGINAL-RISK DELINEATION.

HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...AND
THE PROPENSITY FOR INCREASING CELL INTERACTIONS TO EVENTUALLY IMPEDE
INDIVIDUAL-CELL INFLOW IN THIS REGIME OF BOUNDARY-PARALLEL DEEP
FLOW...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 291917
SWODY1
SPC AC 291915

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
WITHIN AN AREA EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS...EASTWARD TO THE MID-SOUTH.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..JEWELL.. 03/29/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EWD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS WHILE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A
DISTURBANCE AMPLIFYING FROM SRN MANITOBA. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE MIDLEVEL FEATURES WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS PORTIONS THE MS VALLEY
TO THE OH VALLEY AND TRAIL SWWD TO THE SRN PLAINS.

...SERN OK/NERN TX EWD TO THE MID-SOUTH...
THE RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WITH
50S-LOWER-60S SFC DEWPOINTS ANALYZED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/ERN TX.
PREFRONTAL SFC SLYS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A STEADY INFLUX OF
SIMILAR MOISTURE TOWARD THE RED RIVER OF THE SOUTH TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING ALOFT AT THE
BASE OF AN EML SAMPLED BY THE 12Z OUN AND FWD RAOBS WILL LIKELY KEEP
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MINIMAL DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.

BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BE INTERCEPTING THE AFOREMENTIONED
MODEST RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...FAVORABLY COINCIDENT WITH
GLANCING DCVA/FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...TO ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FURTHERMORE...WITH A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND MAXIMUM AUGMENTING
FRONT-PRECEDING WAA ALONG A LLJ /STRONGEST ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE 00Z-04Z PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ELEVATED ABOVE A NOCTURNALLY STABILIZING PBL LAYER AND
PERHAPS UNDERCUTTING BAROCLINIC ZONE.

THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME HAIL
POTENTIAL GIVEN 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR YIELDING ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES /POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS/. GIVEN H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7-8 C/KM SAMPLED BY 12Z FWD/OUN RAOBS...WITH SIMILAR VALUES
SPREADING EWD WITH TIME...NORMALIZED CAPE/UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST -- IN THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP
SHEAR -- FOR ISOLATED SVR-HAIL POTENTIAL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THIS SCENARIO IS AFFIRMED BY THE LATEST AVAILABLE
CONVECTION-PERMITTING MODEL GUIDANCE...AND WARRANTS THE UPGRADE TO
MARGINAL-RISK DELINEATION.

HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...AND
THE PROPENSITY FOR INCREASING CELL INTERACTIONS TO EVENTUALLY IMPEDE
INDIVIDUAL-CELL INFLOW IN THIS REGIME OF BOUNDARY-PARALLEL DEEP
FLOW...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.





000
ACUS02 KWNS 291702
SWODY2
SPC AC 291701

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN MS...AL...AND THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AS
WELL AS ACROSS NEW MEXICO. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WRN STATES. IN BETWEEN...A NWLY FLOW REGIME
WILL EXIST FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.

WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS...SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO NWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS FROM TX
TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL FORM
DURING THE DAY ACROSS LA/SRN MS/SRN AL...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS.

...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE...
STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. THE NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL FAVOR CELLULAR
ACTIVITY AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST HAIL. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR TO OVERALL THREAT IS LACK OF CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A
CONDITIONAL THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EXISTS GIVEN STORMS.

..JEWELL.. 03/29/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 291702
SWODY2
SPC AC 291701

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN MS...AL...AND THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AS
WELL AS ACROSS NEW MEXICO. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WRN STATES. IN BETWEEN...A NWLY FLOW REGIME
WILL EXIST FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.

WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS...SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO NWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS FROM TX
TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL FORM
DURING THE DAY ACROSS LA/SRN MS/SRN AL...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS.

...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE...
STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. THE NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL FAVOR CELLULAR
ACTIVITY AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST HAIL. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR TO OVERALL THREAT IS LACK OF CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A
CONDITIONAL THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EXISTS GIVEN STORMS.

..JEWELL.. 03/29/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 291702
SWODY2
SPC AC 291701

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN MS...AL...AND THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AS
WELL AS ACROSS NEW MEXICO. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WRN STATES. IN BETWEEN...A NWLY FLOW REGIME
WILL EXIST FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.

WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS...SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO NWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS FROM TX
TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL FORM
DURING THE DAY ACROSS LA/SRN MS/SRN AL...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS.

...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE...
STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. THE NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL FAVOR CELLULAR
ACTIVITY AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST HAIL. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR TO OVERALL THREAT IS LACK OF CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A
CONDITIONAL THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EXISTS GIVEN STORMS.

..JEWELL.. 03/29/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 291702
SWODY2
SPC AC 291701

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN MS...AL...AND THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AS
WELL AS ACROSS NEW MEXICO. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL OVER
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH UPPER
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WRN STATES. IN BETWEEN...A NWLY FLOW REGIME
WILL EXIST FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.

WITH A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS...SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO NWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS FROM TX
TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL FORM
DURING THE DAY ACROSS LA/SRN MS/SRN AL...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS.

...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE...
STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. THE NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL FAVOR CELLULAR
ACTIVITY AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST HAIL. THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR TO OVERALL THREAT IS LACK OF CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT. THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A
CONDITIONAL THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EXISTS GIVEN STORMS.

..JEWELL.. 03/29/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 291629
SWODY1
SPC AC 291627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
WITHIN AN AREA EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS...EASTWARD TO THE MID-SOUTH.

...SYNOPSIS...
RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EWD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS WHILE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A
DISTURBANCE AMPLIFYING FROM SRN MANITOBA. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE MIDLEVEL FEATURES WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS PORTIONS THE MS VALLEY
TO THE OH VALLEY AND TRAIL SWWD TO THE SRN PLAINS.

...SERN OK/NERN TX EWD TO THE MID-SOUTH...
THE RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WITH
50S-LOWER-60S SFC DEWPOINTS ANALYZED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/ERN TX.
PREFRONTAL SFC SLYS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A STEADY INFLUX OF
SIMILAR MOISTURE TOWARD THE RED RIVER OF THE SOUTH TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING ALOFT AT THE
BASE OF AN EML SAMPLED BY THE 12Z OUN AND FWD RAOBS WILL LIKELY KEEP
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MINIMAL DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.

BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BE INTERCEPTING THE AFOREMENTIONED
MODEST RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...FAVORABLY COINCIDENT WITH
GLANCING DCVA/FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...TO ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FURTHERMORE...WITH A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND MAXIMUM AUGMENTING
FRONT-PRECEDING WAA ALONG A LLJ /STRONGEST ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE 00Z-04Z PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ELEVATED ABOVE A NOCTURNALLY STABILIZING PBL LAYER AND
PERHAPS UNDERCUTTING BAROCLINIC ZONE.

THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME HAIL
POTENTIAL GIVEN 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR YIELDING ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES /POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS/. GIVEN H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7-8 C/KM SAMPLED BY 12Z FWD/OUN RAOBS...WITH SIMILAR VALUES
SPREADING EWD WITH TIME...NORMALIZED CAPE/UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST -- IN THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP
SHEAR -- FOR ISOLATED SVR-HAIL POTENTIAL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THIS SCENARIO IS AFFIRMED BY THE LATEST AVAILABLE
CONVECTION-PERMITTING MODEL GUIDANCE...AND WARRANTS THE UPGRADE TO
MARGINAL-RISK DELINEATION.

HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...AND
THE PROPENSITY FOR INCREASING CELL INTERACTIONS TO EVENTUALLY IMPEDE
INDIVIDUAL-CELL INFLOW IN THIS REGIME OF BOUNDARY-PARALLEL DEEP
FLOW...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.

..COHEN.. 03/29/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 291629
SWODY1
SPC AC 291627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
WITHIN AN AREA EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS...EASTWARD TO THE MID-SOUTH.

...SYNOPSIS...
RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EWD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS WHILE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A
DISTURBANCE AMPLIFYING FROM SRN MANITOBA. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE MIDLEVEL FEATURES WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS PORTIONS THE MS VALLEY
TO THE OH VALLEY AND TRAIL SWWD TO THE SRN PLAINS.

...SERN OK/NERN TX EWD TO THE MID-SOUTH...
THE RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WITH
50S-LOWER-60S SFC DEWPOINTS ANALYZED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/ERN TX.
PREFRONTAL SFC SLYS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A STEADY INFLUX OF
SIMILAR MOISTURE TOWARD THE RED RIVER OF THE SOUTH TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING ALOFT AT THE
BASE OF AN EML SAMPLED BY THE 12Z OUN AND FWD RAOBS WILL LIKELY KEEP
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MINIMAL DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.

BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BE INTERCEPTING THE AFOREMENTIONED
MODEST RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...FAVORABLY COINCIDENT WITH
GLANCING DCVA/FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...TO ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FURTHERMORE...WITH A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND MAXIMUM AUGMENTING
FRONT-PRECEDING WAA ALONG A LLJ /STRONGEST ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE 00Z-04Z PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ELEVATED ABOVE A NOCTURNALLY STABILIZING PBL LAYER AND
PERHAPS UNDERCUTTING BAROCLINIC ZONE.

THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME HAIL
POTENTIAL GIVEN 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR YIELDING ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES /POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS/. GIVEN H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7-8 C/KM SAMPLED BY 12Z FWD/OUN RAOBS...WITH SIMILAR VALUES
SPREADING EWD WITH TIME...NORMALIZED CAPE/UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST -- IN THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP
SHEAR -- FOR ISOLATED SVR-HAIL POTENTIAL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THIS SCENARIO IS AFFIRMED BY THE LATEST AVAILABLE
CONVECTION-PERMITTING MODEL GUIDANCE...AND WARRANTS THE UPGRADE TO
MARGINAL-RISK DELINEATION.

HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...AND
THE PROPENSITY FOR INCREASING CELL INTERACTIONS TO EVENTUALLY IMPEDE
INDIVIDUAL-CELL INFLOW IN THIS REGIME OF BOUNDARY-PARALLEL DEEP
FLOW...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.

..COHEN.. 03/29/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 291629
SWODY1
SPC AC 291627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
WITHIN AN AREA EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS...EASTWARD TO THE MID-SOUTH.

...SYNOPSIS...
RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EWD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS WHILE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A
DISTURBANCE AMPLIFYING FROM SRN MANITOBA. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE MIDLEVEL FEATURES WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS PORTIONS THE MS VALLEY
TO THE OH VALLEY AND TRAIL SWWD TO THE SRN PLAINS.

...SERN OK/NERN TX EWD TO THE MID-SOUTH...
THE RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WITH
50S-LOWER-60S SFC DEWPOINTS ANALYZED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/ERN TX.
PREFRONTAL SFC SLYS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A STEADY INFLUX OF
SIMILAR MOISTURE TOWARD THE RED RIVER OF THE SOUTH TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING ALOFT AT THE
BASE OF AN EML SAMPLED BY THE 12Z OUN AND FWD RAOBS WILL LIKELY KEEP
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MINIMAL DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.

BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BE INTERCEPTING THE AFOREMENTIONED
MODEST RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...FAVORABLY COINCIDENT WITH
GLANCING DCVA/FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...TO ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FURTHERMORE...WITH A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND MAXIMUM AUGMENTING
FRONT-PRECEDING WAA ALONG A LLJ /STRONGEST ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE 00Z-04Z PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ELEVATED ABOVE A NOCTURNALLY STABILIZING PBL LAYER AND
PERHAPS UNDERCUTTING BAROCLINIC ZONE.

THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME HAIL
POTENTIAL GIVEN 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR YIELDING ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES /POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS/. GIVEN H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7-8 C/KM SAMPLED BY 12Z FWD/OUN RAOBS...WITH SIMILAR VALUES
SPREADING EWD WITH TIME...NORMALIZED CAPE/UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST -- IN THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP
SHEAR -- FOR ISOLATED SVR-HAIL POTENTIAL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THIS SCENARIO IS AFFIRMED BY THE LATEST AVAILABLE
CONVECTION-PERMITTING MODEL GUIDANCE...AND WARRANTS THE UPGRADE TO
MARGINAL-RISK DELINEATION.

HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...AND
THE PROPENSITY FOR INCREASING CELL INTERACTIONS TO EVENTUALLY IMPEDE
INDIVIDUAL-CELL INFLOW IN THIS REGIME OF BOUNDARY-PARALLEL DEEP
FLOW...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.

..COHEN.. 03/29/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 291629
SWODY1
SPC AC 291627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
WITHIN AN AREA EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST
TEXAS...EASTWARD TO THE MID-SOUTH.

...SYNOPSIS...
RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EWD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS WHILE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A
DISTURBANCE AMPLIFYING FROM SRN MANITOBA. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE MIDLEVEL FEATURES WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS PORTIONS THE MS VALLEY
TO THE OH VALLEY AND TRAIL SWWD TO THE SRN PLAINS.

...SERN OK/NERN TX EWD TO THE MID-SOUTH...
THE RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WITH
50S-LOWER-60S SFC DEWPOINTS ANALYZED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/ERN TX.
PREFRONTAL SFC SLYS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A STEADY INFLUX OF
SIMILAR MOISTURE TOWARD THE RED RIVER OF THE SOUTH TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING ALOFT AT THE
BASE OF AN EML SAMPLED BY THE 12Z OUN AND FWD RAOBS WILL LIKELY KEEP
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MINIMAL DESPITE THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.

BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONT WILL BE INTERCEPTING THE AFOREMENTIONED
MODEST RETURN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...FAVORABLY COINCIDENT WITH
GLANCING DCVA/FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...TO ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FURTHERMORE...WITH A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND MAXIMUM AUGMENTING
FRONT-PRECEDING WAA ALONG A LLJ /STRONGEST ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
INVOF THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE 00Z-04Z PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ELEVATED ABOVE A NOCTURNALLY STABILIZING PBL LAYER AND
PERHAPS UNDERCUTTING BAROCLINIC ZONE.

THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME HAIL
POTENTIAL GIVEN 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR YIELDING ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES /POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS/. GIVEN H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7-8 C/KM SAMPLED BY 12Z FWD/OUN RAOBS...WITH SIMILAR VALUES
SPREADING EWD WITH TIME...NORMALIZED CAPE/UPDRAFT ACCELERATIONS WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST -- IN THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP
SHEAR -- FOR ISOLATED SVR-HAIL POTENTIAL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THIS SCENARIO IS AFFIRMED BY THE LATEST AVAILABLE
CONVECTION-PERMITTING MODEL GUIDANCE...AND WARRANTS THE UPGRADE TO
MARGINAL-RISK DELINEATION.

HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...AND
THE PROPENSITY FOR INCREASING CELL INTERACTIONS TO EVENTUALLY IMPEDE
INDIVIDUAL-CELL INFLOW IN THIS REGIME OF BOUNDARY-PARALLEL DEEP
FLOW...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.

..COHEN.. 03/29/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 291215
SWODY1
SPC AC 291213

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.  ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AND ADJACENT SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO.

...NE TX/SE OK TO THE ARK-LA-MISS AND TN VALLEY TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS
TO GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT...AS AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD TO THE CORRIDOR FROM THE TN VALLEY TO
N TX.  MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS TX/AR/LA IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS A SHALLOW MODIFYING AIR MASS RETURNS NWD/NEWD FROM
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BENEATH THE ERN
EXTENSION OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME...SUCH THAT MLCAPE COULD
INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG...BUT PROFILES WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED
THROUGH 00Z.

THE STRONGER/DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL GLANCE
THE NE EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING MOIST SECTOR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST N OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY EARLY TONIGHT FROM NE TX/SE OK INTO THE
ARK-LA-MISS.  BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG EARLY TONIGHT...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES AND A MARGINAL WIND PROFILE FOR
SUPERCELLS.  IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT BUOYANCY WILL BE ANY LARGER THAN
SHOWN BY THE DETERMINISTIC OPERATIONAL RUNS...SO THE RISK FOR HAIL
AOA 1 INCH IN DIAMETER STILL APPEARS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT THE
ADDITION OF PROBABILITIES.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 03/29/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 291215
SWODY1
SPC AC 291213

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.  ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AND ADJACENT SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO.

...NE TX/SE OK TO THE ARK-LA-MISS AND TN VALLEY TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS
TO GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT...AS AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD TO THE CORRIDOR FROM THE TN VALLEY TO
N TX.  MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS TX/AR/LA IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS A SHALLOW MODIFYING AIR MASS RETURNS NWD/NEWD FROM
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BENEATH THE ERN
EXTENSION OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME...SUCH THAT MLCAPE COULD
INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG...BUT PROFILES WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED
THROUGH 00Z.

THE STRONGER/DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL GLANCE
THE NE EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING MOIST SECTOR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST N OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY EARLY TONIGHT FROM NE TX/SE OK INTO THE
ARK-LA-MISS.  BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG EARLY TONIGHT...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES AND A MARGINAL WIND PROFILE FOR
SUPERCELLS.  IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT BUOYANCY WILL BE ANY LARGER THAN
SHOWN BY THE DETERMINISTIC OPERATIONAL RUNS...SO THE RISK FOR HAIL
AOA 1 INCH IN DIAMETER STILL APPEARS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT THE
ADDITION OF PROBABILITIES.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 03/29/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 291215
SWODY1
SPC AC 291213

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.  ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AND ADJACENT SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO.

...NE TX/SE OK TO THE ARK-LA-MISS AND TN VALLEY TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS
TO GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT...AS AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD TO THE CORRIDOR FROM THE TN VALLEY TO
N TX.  MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS TX/AR/LA IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS A SHALLOW MODIFYING AIR MASS RETURNS NWD/NEWD FROM
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BENEATH THE ERN
EXTENSION OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME...SUCH THAT MLCAPE COULD
INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG...BUT PROFILES WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED
THROUGH 00Z.

THE STRONGER/DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL GLANCE
THE NE EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING MOIST SECTOR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST N OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY EARLY TONIGHT FROM NE TX/SE OK INTO THE
ARK-LA-MISS.  BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG EARLY TONIGHT...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES AND A MARGINAL WIND PROFILE FOR
SUPERCELLS.  IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT BUOYANCY WILL BE ANY LARGER THAN
SHOWN BY THE DETERMINISTIC OPERATIONAL RUNS...SO THE RISK FOR HAIL
AOA 1 INCH IN DIAMETER STILL APPEARS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT THE
ADDITION OF PROBABILITIES.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 03/29/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 291215
SWODY1
SPC AC 291213

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.  ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO AND ADJACENT SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO.

...NE TX/SE OK TO THE ARK-LA-MISS AND TN VALLEY TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS
TO GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT...AS AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD TO THE CORRIDOR FROM THE TN VALLEY TO
N TX.  MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS TX/AR/LA IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS A SHALLOW MODIFYING AIR MASS RETURNS NWD/NEWD FROM
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BENEATH THE ERN
EXTENSION OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME...SUCH THAT MLCAPE COULD
INCREASE TO 500-1000 J/KG...BUT PROFILES WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED
THROUGH 00Z.

THE STRONGER/DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL GLANCE
THE NE EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING MOIST SECTOR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST N OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY EARLY TONIGHT FROM NE TX/SE OK INTO THE
ARK-LA-MISS.  BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG EARLY TONIGHT...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES AND A MARGINAL WIND PROFILE FOR
SUPERCELLS.  IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT BUOYANCY WILL BE ANY LARGER THAN
SHOWN BY THE DETERMINISTIC OPERATIONAL RUNS...SO THE RISK FOR HAIL
AOA 1 INCH IN DIAMETER STILL APPEARS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT THE
ADDITION OF PROBABILITIES.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 03/29/2015





000
ACUS03 KWNS 290732
SWODY3
SPC AC 290730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE S-CNTRL
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
AREAS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE TO RED RIVER
TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS...WHILE A RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST. WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW-AMPLITUDE SRN-STREAM
MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EJECT ACROSS PARTS OF N-CNTRL/NE MEXICO AND
CNTRL/S TX. SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ILL-DEFINED ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING N. A DRYLINE SHOULD MIX E
ACROSS PARTS OF W TX AND PERHAPS EXTREME W OK TUE AFTERNOON.

...S-CNTRL STATES...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODIFY WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR BENEATH AN INITIALLY PERVASIVE EML PLUME. DIABATIC
SURFACE HEATING IS PROGGED TO BE STRONG MOST AREAS AND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH RELATIVELY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...THIS SETUP
SHOULD YIELD A BROAD MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH WEAKER MLCIN
RELATIVE TO PRIOR DAYS. ALTHOUGH SPATIAL DETAILS OF WHERE CONVECTION
SHOULD FORM E OF THE DRYLINE APPEAR UNCLEAR GIVEN SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...A FEW TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS W TX AND EWD OVER
PARTS OF THE RED RIVER TO LOWER MS VALLEYS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
RELATIVELY MODEST ESPECIALLY WHERE BUOYANCY SHOULD BE GREATEST INVOF
NW TX TO CNTRL/SRN OK. BUT LARGELY 20-30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH
STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

..GRAMS.. 03/29/2015





000
ACUS03 KWNS 290732
SWODY3
SPC AC 290730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE S-CNTRL
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
AREAS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE TO RED RIVER
TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS...WHILE A RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST. WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW-AMPLITUDE SRN-STREAM
MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EJECT ACROSS PARTS OF N-CNTRL/NE MEXICO AND
CNTRL/S TX. SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ILL-DEFINED ACROSS THE SOUTH
WITH A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING N. A DRYLINE SHOULD MIX E
ACROSS PARTS OF W TX AND PERHAPS EXTREME W OK TUE AFTERNOON.

...S-CNTRL STATES...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MODIFY WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR BENEATH AN INITIALLY PERVASIVE EML PLUME. DIABATIC
SURFACE HEATING IS PROGGED TO BE STRONG MOST AREAS AND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH RELATIVELY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...THIS SETUP
SHOULD YIELD A BROAD MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH WEAKER MLCIN
RELATIVE TO PRIOR DAYS. ALTHOUGH SPATIAL DETAILS OF WHERE CONVECTION
SHOULD FORM E OF THE DRYLINE APPEAR UNCLEAR GIVEN SUBTLE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...A FEW TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS W TX AND EWD OVER
PARTS OF THE RED RIVER TO LOWER MS VALLEYS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
RELATIVELY MODEST ESPECIALLY WHERE BUOYANCY SHOULD BE GREATEST INVOF
NW TX TO CNTRL/SRN OK. BUT LARGELY 20-30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH
STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

..GRAMS.. 03/29/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 290557
SWODY1
SPC AC 290556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.  ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO.
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WILL
PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD FROM MANITOBA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY.  PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW SHOULD REMAIN IN CANADA WITH THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD AND SWD REACHING THE APPALACHIANS
TO DEEP SOUTH...WITH TRAILING PORTION BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
TX.

...NRN TX/SERN OK TO PART OF THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS...
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER SUNSET.  DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN TX INTO SERN OK THIS
AFTERNOON...NEUTRAL TO WEAK 500-MB HEIGHT RISES AND THE PRESENCE OF
A CAP /ERN EXTENT OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/ SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
OCCURRENCE OF DAYTIME SURFACE-BASED TSTMS.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD INTO AR AND THE TN
VALLEY.  THIS COMBINED WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT
GIVEN 1/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AND 2/WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
ACCOMPANYING WLY 500-MB JET SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.  DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF GREATER INSTABILITY /MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J PER KG/ WITH WWD EXTENT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND NERN TX
AND SERN OK...EVEN WEAKER DEEP-LAYER FORCING WILL RESULT IN MORE
ISOLATED TSTM COVERAGE TONIGHT.  STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KT SUGGEST SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SRN ROCKIES...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN NM
AND SRN CO GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS AMIDST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

..PETERS/LEITMAN.. 03/29/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 290557
SWODY1
SPC AC 290556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.  ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO.
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WILL
PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD FROM MANITOBA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY.  PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW SHOULD REMAIN IN CANADA WITH THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD AND SWD REACHING THE APPALACHIANS
TO DEEP SOUTH...WITH TRAILING PORTION BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
TX.

...NRN TX/SERN OK TO PART OF THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS...
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER SUNSET.  DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN TX INTO SERN OK THIS
AFTERNOON...NEUTRAL TO WEAK 500-MB HEIGHT RISES AND THE PRESENCE OF
A CAP /ERN EXTENT OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/ SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
OCCURRENCE OF DAYTIME SURFACE-BASED TSTMS.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD INTO AR AND THE TN
VALLEY.  THIS COMBINED WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT
GIVEN 1/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AND 2/WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
ACCOMPANYING WLY 500-MB JET SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.  DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF GREATER INSTABILITY /MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J PER KG/ WITH WWD EXTENT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND NERN TX
AND SERN OK...EVEN WEAKER DEEP-LAYER FORCING WILL RESULT IN MORE
ISOLATED TSTM COVERAGE TONIGHT.  STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KT SUGGEST SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SRN ROCKIES...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN NM
AND SRN CO GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS AMIDST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

..PETERS/LEITMAN.. 03/29/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 290557
SWODY1
SPC AC 290556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.  ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO.
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WILL
PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD FROM MANITOBA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY.  PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW SHOULD REMAIN IN CANADA WITH THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD AND SWD REACHING THE APPALACHIANS
TO DEEP SOUTH...WITH TRAILING PORTION BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
TX.

...NRN TX/SERN OK TO PART OF THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS...
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER SUNSET.  DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN TX INTO SERN OK THIS
AFTERNOON...NEUTRAL TO WEAK 500-MB HEIGHT RISES AND THE PRESENCE OF
A CAP /ERN EXTENT OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/ SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
OCCURRENCE OF DAYTIME SURFACE-BASED TSTMS.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD INTO AR AND THE TN
VALLEY.  THIS COMBINED WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT
GIVEN 1/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AND 2/WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
ACCOMPANYING WLY 500-MB JET SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.  DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF GREATER INSTABILITY /MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J PER KG/ WITH WWD EXTENT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND NERN TX
AND SERN OK...EVEN WEAKER DEEP-LAYER FORCING WILL RESULT IN MORE
ISOLATED TSTM COVERAGE TONIGHT.  STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KT SUGGEST SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SRN ROCKIES...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN NM
AND SRN CO GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS AMIDST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

..PETERS/LEITMAN.. 03/29/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 290557
SWODY1
SPC AC 290556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.  ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO.
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WILL
PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD FROM MANITOBA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY.  PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW SHOULD REMAIN IN CANADA WITH THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD AND SWD REACHING THE APPALACHIANS
TO DEEP SOUTH...WITH TRAILING PORTION BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
TX.

...NRN TX/SERN OK TO PART OF THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS...
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER SUNSET.  DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN TX INTO SERN OK THIS
AFTERNOON...NEUTRAL TO WEAK 500-MB HEIGHT RISES AND THE PRESENCE OF
A CAP /ERN EXTENT OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/ SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
OCCURRENCE OF DAYTIME SURFACE-BASED TSTMS.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD INTO AR AND THE TN
VALLEY.  THIS COMBINED WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT
GIVEN 1/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AND 2/WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
ACCOMPANYING WLY 500-MB JET SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.  DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF GREATER INSTABILITY /MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J PER KG/ WITH WWD EXTENT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND NERN TX
AND SERN OK...EVEN WEAKER DEEP-LAYER FORCING WILL RESULT IN MORE
ISOLATED TSTM COVERAGE TONIGHT.  STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KT SUGGEST SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SRN ROCKIES...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN NM
AND SRN CO GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS AMIDST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

..PETERS/LEITMAN.. 03/29/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 290532
SWODY2
SPC AC 290531

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN STATES
DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL PROGRESS OFF THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND COAST MON NIGHT AS
AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE TRACKS FROM THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TOWARDS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY MAINTAIN MID-LEVEL
W/NWLYS OVER THE S-CNTRL/SOUTHEAST STATES. A WEAK SRN-STREAM
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD REACH BAJA CA SUR BY
EARLY TUE. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGELY W/E-ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE DECAYING MON NIGHT. TRAILING
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE DIFFUSE BUT SHOULD SLOWLY ADVANCE N
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT OVER THE SRN GREAT PLAINS.

...SOUTHEAST...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER WITH SPATIOTEMPORAL DETAILS OF THE
FRONT AND THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT. WITH MEAN
MIXING RATIOS OF ONLY 3-6 G/KG SAMPLED IN CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST
29/00Z RAOBS...AND A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS STILL
PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN PER GOES PW IMAGERY...THE DRIER
SPECTRUM OF GUIDANCE APPEARS MORE BELIEVABLE GIVEN THE SHORT PERIOD
FOR FURTHER AIR MASS MODIFICATION.

DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
MID-LEVEL NWLYS SHOULD YIELD MODERATELY STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES. ON THE FRINGE OF MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A RISK FOR
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL MAY DEVELOP. BUT WITH WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING FRONTAL PLACEMENT/BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...THIS RISK
APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK.

...RED RIVER OF THE SOUTH...
VAST DIFFERENCES EXIST WITHIN GUIDANCE OVER PLACEMENT OF THE DIFFUSE
FRONT AND DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW-LEVEL WAA
WILL OCCUR MON NIGHT N OF THE BOUNDARY AMIDST MODEST S/SWLY FLOW.
700-MB WLYS MAY MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT EML CAPPING TO COMPLETELY
PRECLUDE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A CORRIDOR OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD FORM TOWARDS 12Z/TUE. GIVEN SUCH LOW
CONFIDENCE...WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 03/29/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 290532
SWODY2
SPC AC 290531

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN STATES
DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL PROGRESS OFF THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND COAST MON NIGHT AS
AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE TRACKS FROM THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TOWARDS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY MAINTAIN MID-LEVEL
W/NWLYS OVER THE S-CNTRL/SOUTHEAST STATES. A WEAK SRN-STREAM
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD REACH BAJA CA SUR BY
EARLY TUE. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGELY W/E-ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE DECAYING MON NIGHT. TRAILING
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE DIFFUSE BUT SHOULD SLOWLY ADVANCE N
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT OVER THE SRN GREAT PLAINS.

...SOUTHEAST...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER WITH SPATIOTEMPORAL DETAILS OF THE
FRONT AND THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT. WITH MEAN
MIXING RATIOS OF ONLY 3-6 G/KG SAMPLED IN CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST
29/00Z RAOBS...AND A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS STILL
PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN PER GOES PW IMAGERY...THE DRIER
SPECTRUM OF GUIDANCE APPEARS MORE BELIEVABLE GIVEN THE SHORT PERIOD
FOR FURTHER AIR MASS MODIFICATION.

DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
MID-LEVEL NWLYS SHOULD YIELD MODERATELY STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES. ON THE FRINGE OF MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A RISK FOR
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL MAY DEVELOP. BUT WITH WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING FRONTAL PLACEMENT/BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...THIS RISK
APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK.

...RED RIVER OF THE SOUTH...
VAST DIFFERENCES EXIST WITHIN GUIDANCE OVER PLACEMENT OF THE DIFFUSE
FRONT AND DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW-LEVEL WAA
WILL OCCUR MON NIGHT N OF THE BOUNDARY AMIDST MODEST S/SWLY FLOW.
700-MB WLYS MAY MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT EML CAPPING TO COMPLETELY
PRECLUDE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A CORRIDOR OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD FORM TOWARDS 12Z/TUE. GIVEN SUCH LOW
CONFIDENCE...WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 03/29/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 290532
SWODY2
SPC AC 290531

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN STATES
DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHEAST...MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL PROGRESS OFF THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND COAST MON NIGHT AS
AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE TRACKS FROM THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TOWARDS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY MAINTAIN MID-LEVEL
W/NWLYS OVER THE S-CNTRL/SOUTHEAST STATES. A WEAK SRN-STREAM
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD REACH BAJA CA SUR BY
EARLY TUE. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGELY W/E-ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE DECAYING MON NIGHT. TRAILING
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE DIFFUSE BUT SHOULD SLOWLY ADVANCE N
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT OVER THE SRN GREAT PLAINS.

...SOUTHEAST...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER WITH SPATIOTEMPORAL DETAILS OF THE
FRONT AND THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF IT. WITH MEAN
MIXING RATIOS OF ONLY 3-6 G/KG SAMPLED IN CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST
29/00Z RAOBS...AND A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS STILL
PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN PER GOES PW IMAGERY...THE DRIER
SPECTRUM OF GUIDANCE APPEARS MORE BELIEVABLE GIVEN THE SHORT PERIOD
FOR FURTHER AIR MASS MODIFICATION.

DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
MID-LEVEL NWLYS SHOULD YIELD MODERATELY STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES. ON THE FRINGE OF MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A RISK FOR
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL MAY DEVELOP. BUT WITH WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING FRONTAL PLACEMENT/BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...THIS RISK
APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK.

...RED RIVER OF THE SOUTH...
VAST DIFFERENCES EXIST WITHIN GUIDANCE OVER PLACEMENT OF THE DIFFUSE
FRONT AND DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW-LEVEL WAA
WILL OCCUR MON NIGHT N OF THE BOUNDARY AMIDST MODEST S/SWLY FLOW.
700-MB WLYS MAY MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT EML CAPPING TO COMPLETELY
PRECLUDE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A CORRIDOR OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD FORM TOWARDS 12Z/TUE. GIVEN SUCH LOW
CONFIDENCE...WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 03/29/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 290101
SWODY1
SPC AC 290100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS A SMALL
PART OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ADVANCING
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MISSOURI VALLEY REGION.  A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

...NORTHERN PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY REGION...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN MT PER
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY...WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MORE OF AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH
PLAINS...REACHING FAR WESTERN MN TO NORTHERN NEB BY 12Z.  A COLD
FRONT ATTENDANT TO THIS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM WESTERN MN THROUGH
ERN NEB TO WEST-CENTRAL KS BY 12Z.  THIS FRONT WILL OVERTAKE A WARM
FRONT...WHICH EXTENDED SWD THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB
EARLY THIS EVENING.  FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MIDLEVEL MOISTURE...
ATTENDANT TO THE ERN MT TROUGH...WILL SPREAD EWD ATOP AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG A STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ...EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD FAVOR THE
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FROM WEST-EAST THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE 00Z SOUNDING AT BIS INDICATED A LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 700-825
MB ATOP A SHALLOW SURFACE STABLE LAYER.  ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMES MORE STABLE WITH EWD EXTENT...THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVING QUICKLY EWD INTO CENTRAL ND AND PORTIONS OF NRN SD COULD
STILL PRODUCE A STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUST PER THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC DRY LAYER.  OTHERWISE...TSTMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH EWD EXTENT AND SEVERE THREAT WILL
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE.

..PETERS.. 03/29/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 290101
SWODY1
SPC AC 290100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS A SMALL
PART OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ADVANCING
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MISSOURI VALLEY REGION.  A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

...NORTHERN PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY REGION...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN MT PER
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY...WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MORE OF AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH
PLAINS...REACHING FAR WESTERN MN TO NORTHERN NEB BY 12Z.  A COLD
FRONT ATTENDANT TO THIS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM WESTERN MN THROUGH
ERN NEB TO WEST-CENTRAL KS BY 12Z.  THIS FRONT WILL OVERTAKE A WARM
FRONT...WHICH EXTENDED SWD THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB
EARLY THIS EVENING.  FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MIDLEVEL MOISTURE...
ATTENDANT TO THE ERN MT TROUGH...WILL SPREAD EWD ATOP AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG A STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ...EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD FAVOR THE
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FROM WEST-EAST THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE 00Z SOUNDING AT BIS INDICATED A LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 700-825
MB ATOP A SHALLOW SURFACE STABLE LAYER.  ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMES MORE STABLE WITH EWD EXTENT...THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVING QUICKLY EWD INTO CENTRAL ND AND PORTIONS OF NRN SD COULD
STILL PRODUCE A STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUST PER THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC DRY LAYER.  OTHERWISE...TSTMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH EWD EXTENT AND SEVERE THREAT WILL
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE.

..PETERS.. 03/29/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 290101
SWODY1
SPC AC 290100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS A SMALL
PART OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ADVANCING
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MISSOURI VALLEY REGION.  A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

...NORTHERN PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY REGION...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN MT PER
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY...WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MORE OF AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH
PLAINS...REACHING FAR WESTERN MN TO NORTHERN NEB BY 12Z.  A COLD
FRONT ATTENDANT TO THIS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM WESTERN MN THROUGH
ERN NEB TO WEST-CENTRAL KS BY 12Z.  THIS FRONT WILL OVERTAKE A WARM
FRONT...WHICH EXTENDED SWD THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB
EARLY THIS EVENING.  FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MIDLEVEL MOISTURE...
ATTENDANT TO THE ERN MT TROUGH...WILL SPREAD EWD ATOP AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG A STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ...EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD FAVOR THE
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FROM WEST-EAST THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE 00Z SOUNDING AT BIS INDICATED A LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 700-825
MB ATOP A SHALLOW SURFACE STABLE LAYER.  ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMES MORE STABLE WITH EWD EXTENT...THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVING QUICKLY EWD INTO CENTRAL ND AND PORTIONS OF NRN SD COULD
STILL PRODUCE A STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUST PER THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC DRY LAYER.  OTHERWISE...TSTMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH EWD EXTENT AND SEVERE THREAT WILL
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE.

..PETERS.. 03/29/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 290101
SWODY1
SPC AC 290100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS A SMALL
PART OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ADVANCING
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MISSOURI VALLEY REGION.  A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

...NORTHERN PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY REGION...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN MT PER
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY...WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MORE OF AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH
PLAINS...REACHING FAR WESTERN MN TO NORTHERN NEB BY 12Z.  A COLD
FRONT ATTENDANT TO THIS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM WESTERN MN THROUGH
ERN NEB TO WEST-CENTRAL KS BY 12Z.  THIS FRONT WILL OVERTAKE A WARM
FRONT...WHICH EXTENDED SWD THROUGH THE WRN DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB
EARLY THIS EVENING.  FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MIDLEVEL MOISTURE...
ATTENDANT TO THE ERN MT TROUGH...WILL SPREAD EWD ATOP AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG A STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ...EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD FAVOR THE
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FROM WEST-EAST THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE 00Z SOUNDING AT BIS INDICATED A LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 700-825
MB ATOP A SHALLOW SURFACE STABLE LAYER.  ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMES MORE STABLE WITH EWD EXTENT...THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
MOVING QUICKLY EWD INTO CENTRAL ND AND PORTIONS OF NRN SD COULD
STILL PRODUCE A STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUST PER THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC DRY LAYER.  OTHERWISE...TSTMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WITH EWD EXTENT AND SEVERE THREAT WILL
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE.

..PETERS.. 03/29/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 290016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290016
NDZ000-SDZ000-290145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND THROUGH EXTREME NRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290016Z - 290145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UNTIL AROUND 02Z FROM CNTRL ND THROUGH
EXTREME NCNTRL SD. COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO SPARSE FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS HAS INTENSIFIED OVER CNTRL ND
WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACCOMPANYING A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND
50-55 KT. BISMARCK 00Z RAOB INDICATES STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500 MB...BUT IS CONVECTIVELY STABLE. HOWEVER...A NARROW ZONE OF
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO ASCENT WITHIN THE FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS EWD INTO CNTRL ND. FAST MOMENTUM OF THE STORMS COMBINED
WITH STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR WITHIN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STRONG...CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED WIND GUSTS NEXT 1-2 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   45760208 47030163 48000133 48350069 47880014 45770046
            45390142 45760208






000
ACUS11 KWNS 290016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290016
NDZ000-SDZ000-290145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND THROUGH EXTREME NRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290016Z - 290145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UNTIL AROUND 02Z FROM CNTRL ND THROUGH
EXTREME NCNTRL SD. COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO SPARSE FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS HAS INTENSIFIED OVER CNTRL ND
WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACCOMPANYING A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND
50-55 KT. BISMARCK 00Z RAOB INDICATES STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500 MB...BUT IS CONVECTIVELY STABLE. HOWEVER...A NARROW ZONE OF
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO ASCENT WITHIN THE FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS EWD INTO CNTRL ND. FAST MOMENTUM OF THE STORMS COMBINED
WITH STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR WITHIN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STRONG...CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED WIND GUSTS NEXT 1-2 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   45760208 47030163 48000133 48350069 47880014 45770046
            45390142 45760208





000
ACUS11 KWNS 290016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290016
NDZ000-SDZ000-290145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND THROUGH EXTREME NRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290016Z - 290145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UNTIL AROUND 02Z FROM CNTRL ND THROUGH
EXTREME NCNTRL SD. COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO SPARSE FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS HAS INTENSIFIED OVER CNTRL ND
WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACCOMPANYING A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND
50-55 KT. BISMARCK 00Z RAOB INDICATES STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500 MB...BUT IS CONVECTIVELY STABLE. HOWEVER...A NARROW ZONE OF
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO ASCENT WITHIN THE FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS EWD INTO CNTRL ND. FAST MOMENTUM OF THE STORMS COMBINED
WITH STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR WITHIN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STRONG...CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED WIND GUSTS NEXT 1-2 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   45760208 47030163 48000133 48350069 47880014 45770046
            45390142 45760208





000
ACUS11 KWNS 290016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290016
NDZ000-SDZ000-290145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND THROUGH EXTREME NRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290016Z - 290145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UNTIL AROUND 02Z FROM CNTRL ND THROUGH
EXTREME NCNTRL SD. COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO SPARSE FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS HAS INTENSIFIED OVER CNTRL ND
WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACCOMPANYING A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND
50-55 KT. BISMARCK 00Z RAOB INDICATES STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500 MB...BUT IS CONVECTIVELY STABLE. HOWEVER...A NARROW ZONE OF
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO ASCENT WITHIN THE FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS EWD INTO CNTRL ND. FAST MOMENTUM OF THE STORMS COMBINED
WITH STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR WITHIN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STRONG...CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED WIND GUSTS NEXT 1-2 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   45760208 47030163 48000133 48350069 47880014 45770046
            45390142 45760208





000
ACUS11 KWNS 290016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290016
NDZ000-SDZ000-290145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND THROUGH EXTREME NRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290016Z - 290145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR A FEW
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UNTIL AROUND 02Z FROM CNTRL ND THROUGH
EXTREME NCNTRL SD. COVERAGE OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO SPARSE FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS HAS INTENSIFIED OVER CNTRL ND
WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACCOMPANYING A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND
50-55 KT. BISMARCK 00Z RAOB INDICATES STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
700-500 MB...BUT IS CONVECTIVELY STABLE. HOWEVER...A NARROW ZONE OF
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO ASCENT WITHIN THE FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WILL
PROGRESS EWD INTO CNTRL ND. FAST MOMENTUM OF THE STORMS COMBINED
WITH STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR WITHIN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STRONG...CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED WIND GUSTS NEXT 1-2 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   45760208 47030163 48000133 48350069 47880014 45770046
            45390142 45760208





000
ACUS01 KWNS 281938
SWODY1
SPC AC 281936

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MT INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...20Z UPDATE TO THE DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...
THE WRN BOUND OF THE MARGINAL AREA HAS BEEN SHIFTED WWD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE RISK OF
ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE MARGINAL AREA...PLEASE REFER TO
RECENTLY ISSUED MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 155.

..COHEN.. 03/28/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

...MT/WY/SD/ND...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
WESTERN MT.  THIS AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MT BY MID AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...FAST TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...AND SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS OVER EASTERN MT AND THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 281938
SWODY1
SPC AC 281936

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MT INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...20Z UPDATE TO THE DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...
THE WRN BOUND OF THE MARGINAL AREA HAS BEEN SHIFTED WWD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE RISK OF
ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE MARGINAL AREA...PLEASE REFER TO
RECENTLY ISSUED MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 155.

..COHEN.. 03/28/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

...MT/WY/SD/ND...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
WESTERN MT.  THIS AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MT BY MID AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...FAST TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...AND SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS OVER EASTERN MT AND THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 281938
SWODY1
SPC AC 281936

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MT INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...20Z UPDATE TO THE DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...
THE WRN BOUND OF THE MARGINAL AREA HAS BEEN SHIFTED WWD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE RISK OF
ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE MARGINAL AREA...PLEASE REFER TO
RECENTLY ISSUED MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 155.

..COHEN.. 03/28/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

...MT/WY/SD/ND...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
WESTERN MT.  THIS AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MT BY MID AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...FAST TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...AND SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS OVER EASTERN MT AND THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 281938
SWODY1
SPC AC 281936

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MT INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...20Z UPDATE TO THE DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...
THE WRN BOUND OF THE MARGINAL AREA HAS BEEN SHIFTED WWD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THE RISK OF
ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE MARGINAL AREA...PLEASE REFER TO
RECENTLY ISSUED MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 155.

..COHEN.. 03/28/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

...MT/WY/SD/ND...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
WESTERN MT.  THIS AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MT BY MID AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...FAST TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...AND SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS OVER EASTERN MT AND THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.






000
ACUS11 KWNS 281857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281857 COR
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-281945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD...NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281857Z - 281945Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. A WATCH
IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NRN ID/WRN MT WILL
MOVE EAST THIS AFTN...WITH MOISTENING/ASCENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING WNWLY 2-6 KM WINDS INCREASING TO 45-55 KTS.
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE /PW VALUES GENLY AOB 0.5 INCHES/...MODEST
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG BACKGROUND WIND
FIELDS A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
GUSTS...A SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE
17Z NCEP HRRR AND 12Z NSSL WRF. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..BUNTING/HART.. 03/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON   44930411 44800705 45030814 45460858 46160819 46700789
            47640708 48250580 48260483 48290356 48250256 48160143
            46920128 46120151 45500254 44930411





000
ACUS11 KWNS 281857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281857 COR
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-281945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD...NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281857Z - 281945Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. A WATCH
IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NRN ID/WRN MT WILL
MOVE EAST THIS AFTN...WITH MOISTENING/ASCENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING WNWLY 2-6 KM WINDS INCREASING TO 45-55 KTS.
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE /PW VALUES GENLY AOB 0.5 INCHES/...MODEST
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG BACKGROUND WIND
FIELDS A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
GUSTS...A SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE
17Z NCEP HRRR AND 12Z NSSL WRF. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..BUNTING/HART.. 03/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON   44930411 44800705 45030814 45460858 46160819 46700789
            47640708 48250580 48260483 48290356 48250256 48160143
            46920128 46120151 45500254 44930411






000
ACUS11 KWNS 281857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281857 COR
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-281945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD...NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281857Z - 281945Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. A WATCH
IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NRN ID/WRN MT WILL
MOVE EAST THIS AFTN...WITH MOISTENING/ASCENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING WNWLY 2-6 KM WINDS INCREASING TO 45-55 KTS.
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE /PW VALUES GENLY AOB 0.5 INCHES/...MODEST
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG BACKGROUND WIND
FIELDS A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
GUSTS...A SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE
17Z NCEP HRRR AND 12Z NSSL WRF. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..BUNTING/HART.. 03/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON   44930411 44800705 45030814 45460858 46160819 46700789
            47640708 48250580 48260483 48290356 48250256 48160143
            46920128 46120151 45500254 44930411





000
ACUS11 KWNS 281857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281857 COR
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-281945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD...NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281857Z - 281945Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. A WATCH
IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NRN ID/WRN MT WILL
MOVE EAST THIS AFTN...WITH MOISTENING/ASCENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING WNWLY 2-6 KM WINDS INCREASING TO 45-55 KTS.
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE /PW VALUES GENLY AOB 0.5 INCHES/...MODEST
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG BACKGROUND WIND
FIELDS A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
GUSTS...A SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE
17Z NCEP HRRR AND 12Z NSSL WRF. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..BUNTING/HART.. 03/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON   44930411 44800705 45030814 45460858 46160819 46700789
            47640708 48250580 48260483 48290356 48250256 48160143
            46920128 46120151 45500254 44930411





000
ACUS11 KWNS 281857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281857 COR
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-281945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD...NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281857Z - 281945Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. A WATCH
IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NRN ID/WRN MT WILL
MOVE EAST THIS AFTN...WITH MOISTENING/ASCENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING WNWLY 2-6 KM WINDS INCREASING TO 45-55 KTS.
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE /PW VALUES GENLY AOB 0.5 INCHES/...MODEST
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG BACKGROUND WIND
FIELDS A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
GUSTS...A SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE
17Z NCEP HRRR AND 12Z NSSL WRF. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..BUNTING/HART.. 03/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON   44930411 44800705 45030814 45460858 46160819 46700789
            47640708 48250580 48260483 48290356 48250256 48160143
            46920128 46120151 45500254 44930411





000
ACUS11 KWNS 281857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281857 COR
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-281945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD...NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281857Z - 281945Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. A WATCH
IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NRN ID/WRN MT WILL
MOVE EAST THIS AFTN...WITH MOISTENING/ASCENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING WNWLY 2-6 KM WINDS INCREASING TO 45-55 KTS.
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE /PW VALUES GENLY AOB 0.5 INCHES/...MODEST
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG BACKGROUND WIND
FIELDS A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
GUSTS...A SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE
17Z NCEP HRRR AND 12Z NSSL WRF. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..BUNTING/HART.. 03/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON   44930411 44800705 45030814 45460858 46160819 46700789
            47640708 48250580 48260483 48290356 48250256 48160143
            46920128 46120151 45500254 44930411






000
ACUS11 KWNS 281847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281847
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-281945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD...NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281847Z - 281945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. A WATCH
IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NRN ID/WRN MT WILL
MOVE EAST THIS AFTN...WITH MOISTENING/ASCENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING WNWLY 2-6 KM WINDS INCREASING TO 45-55 KTS.
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE /PW VALUES GENLY AOB 0.5 INCHES/...MODEST
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG BACKGROUND WIND
FIELDS A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
GUSTS...A SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE
1ZZ NCEP HRRR AND 12Z NSSL WRF. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..BUNTING/HART.. 03/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON   44930411 44800705 45030814 45460858 46160819 46700789
            47640708 48250580 48260483 48290356 48250256 48160143
            46920128 46120151 45500254 44930411





000
ACUS11 KWNS 281847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281847
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-281945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD...NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281847Z - 281945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. A WATCH
IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NRN ID/WRN MT WILL
MOVE EAST THIS AFTN...WITH MOISTENING/ASCENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING WNWLY 2-6 KM WINDS INCREASING TO 45-55 KTS.
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE /PW VALUES GENLY AOB 0.5 INCHES/...MODEST
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG BACKGROUND WIND
FIELDS A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
GUSTS...A SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE
1ZZ NCEP HRRR AND 12Z NSSL WRF. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..BUNTING/HART.. 03/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON   44930411 44800705 45030814 45460858 46160819 46700789
            47640708 48250580 48260483 48290356 48250256 48160143
            46920128 46120151 45500254 44930411





000
ACUS11 KWNS 281847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281847
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-281945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD...NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281847Z - 281945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. A WATCH
IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NRN ID/WRN MT WILL
MOVE EAST THIS AFTN...WITH MOISTENING/ASCENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING WNWLY 2-6 KM WINDS INCREASING TO 45-55 KTS.
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE /PW VALUES GENLY AOB 0.5 INCHES/...MODEST
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG BACKGROUND WIND
FIELDS A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
GUSTS...A SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE
1ZZ NCEP HRRR AND 12Z NSSL WRF. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..BUNTING/HART.. 03/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON   44930411 44800705 45030814 45460858 46160819 46700789
            47640708 48250580 48260483 48290356 48250256 48160143
            46920128 46120151 45500254 44930411





000
ACUS11 KWNS 281847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281847
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-281945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD...NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281847Z - 281945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. A WATCH
IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NRN ID/WRN MT WILL
MOVE EAST THIS AFTN...WITH MOISTENING/ASCENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING WNWLY 2-6 KM WINDS INCREASING TO 45-55 KTS.
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE /PW VALUES GENLY AOB 0.5 INCHES/...MODEST
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG BACKGROUND WIND
FIELDS A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
GUSTS...A SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE
1ZZ NCEP HRRR AND 12Z NSSL WRF. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..BUNTING/HART.. 03/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON   44930411 44800705 45030814 45460858 46160819 46700789
            47640708 48250580 48260483 48290356 48250256 48160143
            46920128 46120151 45500254 44930411





000
ACUS11 KWNS 281847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281847
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-281945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD...NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281847Z - 281945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. A WATCH
IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NRN ID/WRN MT WILL
MOVE EAST THIS AFTN...WITH MOISTENING/ASCENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING WNWLY 2-6 KM WINDS INCREASING TO 45-55 KTS.
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE /PW VALUES GENLY AOB 0.5 INCHES/...MODEST
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG BACKGROUND WIND
FIELDS A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
GUSTS...A SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE
1ZZ NCEP HRRR AND 12Z NSSL WRF. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..BUNTING/HART.. 03/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON   44930411 44800705 45030814 45460858 46160819 46700789
            47640708 48250580 48260483 48290356 48250256 48160143
            46920128 46120151 45500254 44930411






000
ACUS11 KWNS 281847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281847
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-281945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT...WRN ND...NWRN SD...NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281847Z - 281945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. A WATCH
IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NRN ID/WRN MT WILL
MOVE EAST THIS AFTN...WITH MOISTENING/ASCENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICTING WNWLY 2-6 KM WINDS INCREASING TO 45-55 KTS.
DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE /PW VALUES GENLY AOB 0.5 INCHES/...MODEST
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG BACKGROUND WIND
FIELDS A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
GUSTS...A SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE FROM THE
1ZZ NCEP HRRR AND 12Z NSSL WRF. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..BUNTING/HART.. 03/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

LAT...LON   44930411 44800705 45030814 45460858 46160819 46700789
            47640708 48250580 48260483 48290356 48250256 48160143
            46920128 46120151 45500254 44930411






000
ACUS02 KWNS 281718
SWODY2
SPC AC 281717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY AFFECT AREAS FROM SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNLIKELY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING PARTS OF NRN ID AND
MT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THE
START OF THE D2/SUN PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN TRACK TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE BEING OVERTAKEN BY AN
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE AMPLIFYING FROM ONTARIO AND MANITOBA. A COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANYING THESE EVOLVING MIDLEVEL FEATURES WILL ADVANCE
EWD/SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/ERN/SRN CONUS. BY EARLY MON
MORNING...THE FRONT WILL LIE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...CURVING WWD
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND REACH FARTHER W INTO N TX.

...SE OK AND NE TX EWD TO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...
LIMITED TIME HAS ELAPSED SINCE THE PRIOR FRONTAL INTRUSION INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...YIELDING INSUFFICIENT OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MORE THAN
MODEST RETURN OF POORLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE INTO D2/SUN. RAOBS
ACROSS THE CNTRL/WRN GULF COAST AT 12Z THIS MORNING INDICATE PW
VALUES AOB 0.7 INCH...INDICATIVE OF THE DEEP DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. FURTHERMORE...THE FLOW AOA H85 IS EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT
PRIMARILY A WLY COMPONENT...OWING TO THE LOW-AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE N OF
THE REGION. FOR ALL OF THESE REASONS...THE DEARTH OF MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL ON D2/SUN.

REGARDLESS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUN EVENING/NIGHT
WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH ENHANCED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING AN EML
PLUME BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE W...AND GIVEN AROUND
20-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUCH ACTIVITY
WOULD BE FROM SRN AR AND VICINITY TO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL BE AT THE ERN EDGE OF THE EWD-SPREADING EML
PLUME AND WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG A
FRONT-PRECEDING LLJ. HOWEVER...STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
NOT PHASE WITH THE RETURNING LIMITED MOISTURE...LARGELY MITIGATING
SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL.

...ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA AT THE
START OF THE D2/SUN PERIOD WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGER DEEP FORCING
FOR ASCENT IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF IL BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WHILE THE STRONGER ASCENT OUTPACES STEEPER MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN NM AND SRN CO IN RESPONSE TO DIURNALLY ENHANCED
OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS AMIDST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

..COHEN.. 03/28/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 281718
SWODY2
SPC AC 281717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY AFFECT AREAS FROM SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNLIKELY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING PARTS OF NRN ID AND
MT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THE
START OF THE D2/SUN PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN TRACK TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE BEING OVERTAKEN BY AN
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE AMPLIFYING FROM ONTARIO AND MANITOBA. A COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANYING THESE EVOLVING MIDLEVEL FEATURES WILL ADVANCE
EWD/SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/ERN/SRN CONUS. BY EARLY MON
MORNING...THE FRONT WILL LIE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...CURVING WWD
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND REACH FARTHER W INTO N TX.

...SE OK AND NE TX EWD TO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...
LIMITED TIME HAS ELAPSED SINCE THE PRIOR FRONTAL INTRUSION INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...YIELDING INSUFFICIENT OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MORE THAN
MODEST RETURN OF POORLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE INTO D2/SUN. RAOBS
ACROSS THE CNTRL/WRN GULF COAST AT 12Z THIS MORNING INDICATE PW
VALUES AOB 0.7 INCH...INDICATIVE OF THE DEEP DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. FURTHERMORE...THE FLOW AOA H85 IS EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT
PRIMARILY A WLY COMPONENT...OWING TO THE LOW-AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE N OF
THE REGION. FOR ALL OF THESE REASONS...THE DEARTH OF MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL ON D2/SUN.

REGARDLESS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUN EVENING/NIGHT
WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH ENHANCED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING AN EML
PLUME BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE W...AND GIVEN AROUND
20-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUCH ACTIVITY
WOULD BE FROM SRN AR AND VICINITY TO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL BE AT THE ERN EDGE OF THE EWD-SPREADING EML
PLUME AND WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG A
FRONT-PRECEDING LLJ. HOWEVER...STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
NOT PHASE WITH THE RETURNING LIMITED MOISTURE...LARGELY MITIGATING
SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL.

...ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA AT THE
START OF THE D2/SUN PERIOD WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGER DEEP FORCING
FOR ASCENT IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF IL BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WHILE THE STRONGER ASCENT OUTPACES STEEPER MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN NM AND SRN CO IN RESPONSE TO DIURNALLY ENHANCED
OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS AMIDST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

..COHEN.. 03/28/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 281718
SWODY2
SPC AC 281717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY AFFECT AREAS FROM SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNLIKELY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING PARTS OF NRN ID AND
MT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THE
START OF THE D2/SUN PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN TRACK TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE BEING OVERTAKEN BY AN
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE AMPLIFYING FROM ONTARIO AND MANITOBA. A COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANYING THESE EVOLVING MIDLEVEL FEATURES WILL ADVANCE
EWD/SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/ERN/SRN CONUS. BY EARLY MON
MORNING...THE FRONT WILL LIE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...CURVING WWD
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND REACH FARTHER W INTO N TX.

...SE OK AND NE TX EWD TO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...
LIMITED TIME HAS ELAPSED SINCE THE PRIOR FRONTAL INTRUSION INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...YIELDING INSUFFICIENT OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MORE THAN
MODEST RETURN OF POORLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE INTO D2/SUN. RAOBS
ACROSS THE CNTRL/WRN GULF COAST AT 12Z THIS MORNING INDICATE PW
VALUES AOB 0.7 INCH...INDICATIVE OF THE DEEP DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. FURTHERMORE...THE FLOW AOA H85 IS EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT
PRIMARILY A WLY COMPONENT...OWING TO THE LOW-AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE N OF
THE REGION. FOR ALL OF THESE REASONS...THE DEARTH OF MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL ON D2/SUN.

REGARDLESS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUN EVENING/NIGHT
WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH ENHANCED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING AN EML
PLUME BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE W...AND GIVEN AROUND
20-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUCH ACTIVITY
WOULD BE FROM SRN AR AND VICINITY TO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL BE AT THE ERN EDGE OF THE EWD-SPREADING EML
PLUME AND WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG A
FRONT-PRECEDING LLJ. HOWEVER...STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
NOT PHASE WITH THE RETURNING LIMITED MOISTURE...LARGELY MITIGATING
SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL.

...ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA AT THE
START OF THE D2/SUN PERIOD WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGER DEEP FORCING
FOR ASCENT IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF IL BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WHILE THE STRONGER ASCENT OUTPACES STEEPER MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN NM AND SRN CO IN RESPONSE TO DIURNALLY ENHANCED
OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS AMIDST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

..COHEN.. 03/28/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 281718
SWODY2
SPC AC 281717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL MAY AFFECT AREAS FROM SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNLIKELY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING PARTS OF NRN ID AND
MT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THE
START OF THE D2/SUN PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN TRACK TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE BEING OVERTAKEN BY AN
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE AMPLIFYING FROM ONTARIO AND MANITOBA. A COLD
FRONT ACCOMPANYING THESE EVOLVING MIDLEVEL FEATURES WILL ADVANCE
EWD/SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/ERN/SRN CONUS. BY EARLY MON
MORNING...THE FRONT WILL LIE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...CURVING WWD
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND REACH FARTHER W INTO N TX.

...SE OK AND NE TX EWD TO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...
LIMITED TIME HAS ELAPSED SINCE THE PRIOR FRONTAL INTRUSION INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...YIELDING INSUFFICIENT OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MORE THAN
MODEST RETURN OF POORLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE INTO D2/SUN. RAOBS
ACROSS THE CNTRL/WRN GULF COAST AT 12Z THIS MORNING INDICATE PW
VALUES AOB 0.7 INCH...INDICATIVE OF THE DEEP DRY AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. FURTHERMORE...THE FLOW AOA H85 IS EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT
PRIMARILY A WLY COMPONENT...OWING TO THE LOW-AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE N OF
THE REGION. FOR ALL OF THESE REASONS...THE DEARTH OF MOISTURE SHOULD
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL ON D2/SUN.

REGARDLESS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SUN EVENING/NIGHT
WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. WITH ENHANCED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING AN EML
PLUME BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE W...AND GIVEN AROUND
20-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUCH ACTIVITY
WOULD BE FROM SRN AR AND VICINITY TO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL BE AT THE ERN EDGE OF THE EWD-SPREADING EML
PLUME AND WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG A
FRONT-PRECEDING LLJ. HOWEVER...STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
NOT PHASE WITH THE RETURNING LIMITED MOISTURE...LARGELY MITIGATING
SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL.

...ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA AT THE
START OF THE D2/SUN PERIOD WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGER DEEP FORCING
FOR ASCENT IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF IL BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WHILE THE STRONGER ASCENT OUTPACES STEEPER MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN NM AND SRN CO IN RESPONSE TO DIURNALLY ENHANCED
OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS AMIDST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

..COHEN.. 03/28/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 281623
SWODY1
SPC AC 281622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MT INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.  A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...MT/WY/SD/ND...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
WESTERN MT.  THIS AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MT BY MID AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...FAST TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...AND SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS OVER EASTERN MT AND THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

..HART/JEWELL.. 03/28/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 281623
SWODY1
SPC AC 281622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MT INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.  A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...MT/WY/SD/ND...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
WESTERN MT.  THIS AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MT BY MID AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...FAST TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...AND SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS OVER EASTERN MT AND THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

..HART/JEWELL.. 03/28/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 281623
SWODY1
SPC AC 281622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MT INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.  A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...MT/WY/SD/ND...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
WESTERN MT.  THIS AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MT BY MID AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...FAST TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...AND SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS OVER EASTERN MT AND THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

..HART/JEWELL.. 03/28/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 281623
SWODY1
SPC AC 281622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MT INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.  A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...MT/WY/SD/ND...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
WESTERN MT.  THIS AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN MT BY MID AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...FAST TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...AND SUFFICIENT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS OVER EASTERN MT AND THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

..HART/JEWELL.. 03/28/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 281243
SWODY1
SPC AC 281242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.  OTHER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WYOMING.

...NRN PLAINS AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WA/ORE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY...BEFORE TURNING ESEWD OVER THE NRN
PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.  A BELT OF ASCENT/MOISTENING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHERE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVERNIGHT...WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS MT TODAY.  BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON...SURFACE HEATING/MIXING WILL STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...REDUCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND SUPPORT THE
FORMATION OF A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS BELT OF ASCENT
ACROSS ERN MT.  MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INVERTED-V PROFILES
COULD SUPPORT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MT
ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH.

OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA AND DIFFERENTIAL CVA.  ABSOLUTE
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE LIMITED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
MIDLEVEL MOISTENING IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT TO WEAK
BUOYANCY.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 03/28/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 281243
SWODY1
SPC AC 281242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.  OTHER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WYOMING.

...NRN PLAINS AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WA/ORE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY...BEFORE TURNING ESEWD OVER THE NRN
PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.  A BELT OF ASCENT/MOISTENING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHERE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVERNIGHT...WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS MT TODAY.  BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON...SURFACE HEATING/MIXING WILL STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...REDUCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND SUPPORT THE
FORMATION OF A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS BELT OF ASCENT
ACROSS ERN MT.  MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INVERTED-V PROFILES
COULD SUPPORT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MT
ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH.

OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA AND DIFFERENTIAL CVA.  ABSOLUTE
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE LIMITED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
MIDLEVEL MOISTENING IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT TO WEAK
BUOYANCY.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 03/28/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 281243
SWODY1
SPC AC 281242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.  OTHER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WYOMING.

...NRN PLAINS AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WA/ORE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY...BEFORE TURNING ESEWD OVER THE NRN
PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.  A BELT OF ASCENT/MOISTENING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHERE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVERNIGHT...WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS MT TODAY.  BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON...SURFACE HEATING/MIXING WILL STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...REDUCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND SUPPORT THE
FORMATION OF A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS BELT OF ASCENT
ACROSS ERN MT.  MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INVERTED-V PROFILES
COULD SUPPORT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MT
ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH.

OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA AND DIFFERENTIAL CVA.  ABSOLUTE
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE LIMITED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
MIDLEVEL MOISTENING IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT TO WEAK
BUOYANCY.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 03/28/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 281243
SWODY1
SPC AC 281242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.  OTHER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WYOMING.

...NRN PLAINS AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WA/ORE THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY...BEFORE TURNING ESEWD OVER THE NRN
PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PERSISTENT
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.  A BELT OF ASCENT/MOISTENING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHERE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVERNIGHT...WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS MT TODAY.  BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON...SURFACE HEATING/MIXING WILL STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...REDUCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND SUPPORT THE
FORMATION OF A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS BELT OF ASCENT
ACROSS ERN MT.  MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INVERTED-V PROFILES
COULD SUPPORT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MT
ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH.

OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA AND DIFFERENTIAL CVA.  ABSOLUTE
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE LIMITED...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
MIDLEVEL MOISTENING IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT TO WEAK
BUOYANCY.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 03/28/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 280730
SWODY3
SPC AC 280729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN STATES
DURING THE PERIOD.

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
SHOULD PROGRESS OFF THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY TUE AS
AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE TRACKS FROM THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TOWARDS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY MAINTAIN MID-LEVEL
W/NWLYS OVER THE S-CNTRL/SOUTHEAST STATES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
W OF BAJA CA SHOULD MOVE INTO NW MEXICO BY 12Z/TUE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
DECAYING MON NIGHT. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOWLY
ADVANCE N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT OVER THE SRN GREAT PLAINS.

...CNTRL OK TO WRN AR AREA...
WITH SOME STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL WAA MON EVENING/NIGHT...MOST
GUIDANCE /OUTSIDE OF THE SREF/ SUGGESTS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL
FORM N OF A DIFFUSE/SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT INITIALLY OVER N TX. ON
THE SW PERIPHERY OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MUCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG COULD SUPPORT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERE
HAIL. BUT MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND PROBABLE CLUSTER MODE SHOULD
LIMIT HAIL SIZE. GIVEN THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE SUCH A CORRIDOR MIGHT BE LATE D3...WILL DEFER POSSIBLE
MARGINAL RISK PROBABILITIES TO LATER OUTLOOKS.

...BIG BEND OF TX...
GUIDANCE DIFFERS BOTH WITH THE EXTENT OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
RETURN UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BENEATH A STOUT EML AND THE STRENGTH
OF MID-LEVEL SWLYS AHEAD OF THE NW MEXICO SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. THIS
RENDERS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE DEGREE OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
DESPITE VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT.

..GRAMS.. 03/28/2015





000
ACUS03 KWNS 280730
SWODY3
SPC AC 280729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN STATES
DURING THE PERIOD.

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
SHOULD PROGRESS OFF THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY TUE AS
AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE TRACKS FROM THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TOWARDS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY MAINTAIN MID-LEVEL
W/NWLYS OVER THE S-CNTRL/SOUTHEAST STATES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
W OF BAJA CA SHOULD MOVE INTO NW MEXICO BY 12Z/TUE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
DECAYING MON NIGHT. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOWLY
ADVANCE N AS A WEAK WARM FRONT OVER THE SRN GREAT PLAINS.

...CNTRL OK TO WRN AR AREA...
WITH SOME STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL WAA MON EVENING/NIGHT...MOST
GUIDANCE /OUTSIDE OF THE SREF/ SUGGESTS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL
FORM N OF A DIFFUSE/SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT INITIALLY OVER N TX. ON
THE SW PERIPHERY OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MUCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG COULD SUPPORT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERE
HAIL. BUT MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND PROBABLE CLUSTER MODE SHOULD
LIMIT HAIL SIZE. GIVEN THESE FACTORS ALONG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
WHERE SUCH A CORRIDOR MIGHT BE LATE D3...WILL DEFER POSSIBLE
MARGINAL RISK PROBABILITIES TO LATER OUTLOOKS.

...BIG BEND OF TX...
GUIDANCE DIFFERS BOTH WITH THE EXTENT OF MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE
RETURN UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BENEATH A STOUT EML AND THE STRENGTH
OF MID-LEVEL SWLYS AHEAD OF THE NW MEXICO SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. THIS
RENDERS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE DEGREE OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
DESPITE VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT.

..GRAMS.. 03/28/2015






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities