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000
ACUS11 KWNS 260314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260314
LAZ000-MSZ000-260445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0778
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN/SOUTHERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 260314Z - 260445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A DAMAGING WIND/SOME TORNADO THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EASTWARD-MOVING SQUALL LINE MAY CONTINUE EAST OF CURRENT TORNADO
WATCHES INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF EASTERN/SOUTHERN LA AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHWEST MS.

DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE WITH UPSTREAM HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS/FEW
TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX WITH CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS LA
THROUGH LATE EVENING/EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. HIGHLY ORGANIZED NATURE
OF THE SQUALL LINE/EMBEDDED BOWS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING
WIND/SOME TORNADO RISK INTO A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT
EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LA. IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER OUTFLOW
AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LARGELY
STABILIZED FROM NORTHEAST LA INTO MS...BUT THE EXISTING ORGANIZATION
OF THE SQUALL LINE AND A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FEED OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME SEVERE RISK INTO
THESE AREAS.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   29789266 32629173 32769099 32069026 30619053 30079022
            29319077 29789266





000
ACUS11 KWNS 260314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260314
LAZ000-MSZ000-260445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0778
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN/SOUTHERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 260314Z - 260445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A DAMAGING WIND/SOME TORNADO THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EASTWARD-MOVING SQUALL LINE MAY CONTINUE EAST OF CURRENT TORNADO
WATCHES INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF EASTERN/SOUTHERN LA AND POSSIBLY
SOUTHWEST MS.

DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE WITH UPSTREAM HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS/FEW
TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX WITH CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS LA
THROUGH LATE EVENING/EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. HIGHLY ORGANIZED NATURE
OF THE SQUALL LINE/EMBEDDED BOWS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING
WIND/SOME TORNADO RISK INTO A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT
EXISTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LA. IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER OUTFLOW
AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LARGELY
STABILIZED FROM NORTHEAST LA INTO MS...BUT THE EXISTING ORGANIZATION
OF THE SQUALL LINE AND A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FEED OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME SEVERE RISK INTO
THESE AREAS.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   29789266 32629173 32769099 32069026 30619053 30079022
            29319077 29789266





000
ACUS11 KWNS 260152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260152
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-260315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0852 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN AR AND SOUTHERN MO TO NORTHWEST MS
AND FAR WESTERN TN/KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 215...217...

VALID 260152Z - 260315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 215...217...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MO AND FAR
SOUTHERN MO INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO AND EVENTUALLY
FAR WESTERN TN/NORTHWEST MS THROUGH LATE EVENING. TORNADO WATCHES
215 AND 217 CONTINUE UNTIL 07Z. AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH COULD BE
NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST MO/NORTHEAST AR AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF THE NEARBY MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...A BOWING SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AR/FAR SOUTHWEST MO AS OF 830 PM
CDT...INCLUDING MULTIPLE NORTHWEST PERIPHERAL EMBEDDED COMMAHEAD
CIRCULATIONS AND A MODERATELY STRONG REAR-INFLOW JET/POSSIBLE MCV
PER FORT SMITH WSR-88D VWP DATA. EARLIER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM
LITTLE ROCK/SPRINGFIELD MO SAMPLED A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...AND REGIONAL SURFACE/WSR-88 VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT
SQUALL-LINE PRECEDING CONVERGENCE HAS LIKELY INCREASED WITH
MOIST/UNSTABLE NEAR-SURFACE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW VIA MODESTLY
BACKING/STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM
AGL. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE
CAPABLE OF POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO RISK WITH EMBEDDED
MESOVORTICES THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MO/EASTERN AR AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NORTHWEST MS...WESTERN
KY/TN...SOUTHERN IL.

..GUYER.. 05/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36409413 37219381 37869282 37959010 37628923 36828884
            35038941 33979043 33399195 33779276 34769240 35559269
            36149363 36409413





000
ACUS11 KWNS 260152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260152
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-260315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0852 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN AR AND SOUTHERN MO TO NORTHWEST MS
AND FAR WESTERN TN/KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 215...217...

VALID 260152Z - 260315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 215...217...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MO AND FAR
SOUTHERN MO INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO AND EVENTUALLY
FAR WESTERN TN/NORTHWEST MS THROUGH LATE EVENING. TORNADO WATCHES
215 AND 217 CONTINUE UNTIL 07Z. AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH COULD BE
NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST MO/NORTHEAST AR AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF THE NEARBY MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...A BOWING SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AR/FAR SOUTHWEST MO AS OF 830 PM
CDT...INCLUDING MULTIPLE NORTHWEST PERIPHERAL EMBEDDED COMMAHEAD
CIRCULATIONS AND A MODERATELY STRONG REAR-INFLOW JET/POSSIBLE MCV
PER FORT SMITH WSR-88D VWP DATA. EARLIER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM
LITTLE ROCK/SPRINGFIELD MO SAMPLED A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...AND REGIONAL SURFACE/WSR-88 VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT
SQUALL-LINE PRECEDING CONVERGENCE HAS LIKELY INCREASED WITH
MOIST/UNSTABLE NEAR-SURFACE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW VIA MODESTLY
BACKING/STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM
AGL. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE
CAPABLE OF POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO RISK WITH EMBEDDED
MESOVORTICES THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MO/EASTERN AR AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NORTHWEST MS...WESTERN
KY/TN...SOUTHERN IL.

..GUYER.. 05/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36409413 37219381 37869282 37959010 37628923 36828884
            35038941 33979043 33399195 33779276 34769240 35559269
            36149363 36409413





000
ACUS11 KWNS 260152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260152
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-260315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0852 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN AR AND SOUTHERN MO TO NORTHWEST MS
AND FAR WESTERN TN/KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 215...217...

VALID 260152Z - 260315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 215...217...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MO AND FAR
SOUTHERN MO INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO AND EVENTUALLY
FAR WESTERN TN/NORTHWEST MS THROUGH LATE EVENING. TORNADO WATCHES
215 AND 217 CONTINUE UNTIL 07Z. AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH COULD BE
NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST MO/NORTHEAST AR AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF THE NEARBY MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...A BOWING SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AR/FAR SOUTHWEST MO AS OF 830 PM
CDT...INCLUDING MULTIPLE NORTHWEST PERIPHERAL EMBEDDED COMMAHEAD
CIRCULATIONS AND A MODERATELY STRONG REAR-INFLOW JET/POSSIBLE MCV
PER FORT SMITH WSR-88D VWP DATA. EARLIER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM
LITTLE ROCK/SPRINGFIELD MO SAMPLED A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...AND REGIONAL SURFACE/WSR-88 VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT
SQUALL-LINE PRECEDING CONVERGENCE HAS LIKELY INCREASED WITH
MOIST/UNSTABLE NEAR-SURFACE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW VIA MODESTLY
BACKING/STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM
AGL. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE
CAPABLE OF POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO RISK WITH EMBEDDED
MESOVORTICES THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MO/EASTERN AR AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NORTHWEST MS...WESTERN
KY/TN...SOUTHERN IL.

..GUYER.. 05/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36409413 37219381 37869282 37959010 37628923 36828884
            35038941 33979043 33399195 33779276 34769240 35559269
            36149363 36409413





000
ACUS11 KWNS 260152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260152
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-260315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0852 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN AR AND SOUTHERN MO TO NORTHWEST MS
AND FAR WESTERN TN/KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 215...217...

VALID 260152Z - 260315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 215...217...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MO AND FAR
SOUTHERN MO INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO AND EVENTUALLY
FAR WESTERN TN/NORTHWEST MS THROUGH LATE EVENING. TORNADO WATCHES
215 AND 217 CONTINUE UNTIL 07Z. AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH COULD BE
NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST MO/NORTHEAST AR AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF THE NEARBY MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...A BOWING SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AR/FAR SOUTHWEST MO AS OF 830 PM
CDT...INCLUDING MULTIPLE NORTHWEST PERIPHERAL EMBEDDED COMMAHEAD
CIRCULATIONS AND A MODERATELY STRONG REAR-INFLOW JET/POSSIBLE MCV
PER FORT SMITH WSR-88D VWP DATA. EARLIER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM
LITTLE ROCK/SPRINGFIELD MO SAMPLED A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...AND REGIONAL SURFACE/WSR-88 VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT
SQUALL-LINE PRECEDING CONVERGENCE HAS LIKELY INCREASED WITH
MOIST/UNSTABLE NEAR-SURFACE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW VIA MODESTLY
BACKING/STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM
AGL. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE
CAPABLE OF POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO RISK WITH EMBEDDED
MESOVORTICES THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MO/EASTERN AR AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NORTHWEST MS...WESTERN
KY/TN...SOUTHERN IL.

..GUYER.. 05/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36409413 37219381 37869282 37959010 37628923 36828884
            35038941 33979043 33399195 33779276 34769240 35559269
            36149363 36409413





000
ACUS11 KWNS 260152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260152
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-260315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0852 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN AR AND SOUTHERN MO TO NORTHWEST MS
AND FAR WESTERN TN/KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 215...217...

VALID 260152Z - 260315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 215...217...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MO AND FAR
SOUTHERN MO INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO AND EVENTUALLY
FAR WESTERN TN/NORTHWEST MS THROUGH LATE EVENING. TORNADO WATCHES
215 AND 217 CONTINUE UNTIL 07Z. AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH COULD BE
NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST MO/NORTHEAST AR AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF THE NEARBY MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...A BOWING SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AR/FAR SOUTHWEST MO AS OF 830 PM
CDT...INCLUDING MULTIPLE NORTHWEST PERIPHERAL EMBEDDED COMMAHEAD
CIRCULATIONS AND A MODERATELY STRONG REAR-INFLOW JET/POSSIBLE MCV
PER FORT SMITH WSR-88D VWP DATA. EARLIER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM
LITTLE ROCK/SPRINGFIELD MO SAMPLED A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...AND REGIONAL SURFACE/WSR-88 VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT
SQUALL-LINE PRECEDING CONVERGENCE HAS LIKELY INCREASED WITH
MOIST/UNSTABLE NEAR-SURFACE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW VIA MODESTLY
BACKING/STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM
AGL. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE
CAPABLE OF POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO RISK WITH EMBEDDED
MESOVORTICES THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MO/EASTERN AR AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NORTHWEST MS...WESTERN
KY/TN...SOUTHERN IL.

..GUYER.. 05/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36409413 37219381 37869282 37959010 37628923 36828884
            35038941 33979043 33399195 33779276 34769240 35559269
            36149363 36409413






000
ACUS11 KWNS 260118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260118
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-260245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0776
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0818 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN KS...SERN NEB...SWRN/CNTRL
IA...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213...214...

VALID 260118Z - 260245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
213...214...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG
WIND GUSTS CONTINUES THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS MUCH OF WW 213 AND 214...WITH A BROKEN
BAND OF STRONG STORMS OVER NWRN MO/NERN KS AND SOME SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED /BUT STILL STRONG/ CELLS OVER FAR WRN PORTIONS OF WW 214.
ONGOING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT RESULTING
FROM OUTFLOW MERGERS/ENHANCED SFC CONVERGENCE WILL STILL HAVE SOME
MARGINAL POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...FACILITATED BY APPROX 1000-1500 J/KG OF
REMAINING MLCAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KT /SAMPLED BY KDMX
VWP/. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD
ENABLE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE THREAT THIS EVENING...WITH THE
GREATEST RELATIVE POTENTIAL PERSISTING OVER SERN PORTIONS OF WW 214.

..PICCA.. 05/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39549765 42389515 42419225 40059374 39259562 38709653
            38859725 39549765






000
ACUS11 KWNS 260118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260118
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-260245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0776
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0818 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN KS...SERN NEB...SWRN/CNTRL
IA...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213...214...

VALID 260118Z - 260245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
213...214...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG
WIND GUSTS CONTINUES THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS MUCH OF WW 213 AND 214...WITH A BROKEN
BAND OF STRONG STORMS OVER NWRN MO/NERN KS AND SOME SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED /BUT STILL STRONG/ CELLS OVER FAR WRN PORTIONS OF WW 214.
ONGOING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT RESULTING
FROM OUTFLOW MERGERS/ENHANCED SFC CONVERGENCE WILL STILL HAVE SOME
MARGINAL POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...FACILITATED BY APPROX 1000-1500 J/KG OF
REMAINING MLCAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KT /SAMPLED BY KDMX
VWP/. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD
ENABLE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE THREAT THIS EVENING...WITH THE
GREATEST RELATIVE POTENTIAL PERSISTING OVER SERN PORTIONS OF WW 214.

..PICCA.. 05/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39549765 42389515 42419225 40059374 39259562 38709653
            38859725 39549765





000
ACUS11 KWNS 260118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260118
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-260245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0776
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0818 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN KS...SERN NEB...SWRN/CNTRL
IA...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213...214...

VALID 260118Z - 260245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
213...214...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG
WIND GUSTS CONTINUES THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS MUCH OF WW 213 AND 214...WITH A BROKEN
BAND OF STRONG STORMS OVER NWRN MO/NERN KS AND SOME SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED /BUT STILL STRONG/ CELLS OVER FAR WRN PORTIONS OF WW 214.
ONGOING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT RESULTING
FROM OUTFLOW MERGERS/ENHANCED SFC CONVERGENCE WILL STILL HAVE SOME
MARGINAL POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...FACILITATED BY APPROX 1000-1500 J/KG OF
REMAINING MLCAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KT /SAMPLED BY KDMX
VWP/. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD
ENABLE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE THREAT THIS EVENING...WITH THE
GREATEST RELATIVE POTENTIAL PERSISTING OVER SERN PORTIONS OF WW 214.

..PICCA.. 05/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39549765 42389515 42419225 40059374 39259562 38709653
            38859725 39549765





000
ACUS11 KWNS 260118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260118
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-260245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0776
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0818 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN KS...SERN NEB...SWRN/CNTRL
IA...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213...214...

VALID 260118Z - 260245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
213...214...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG
WIND GUSTS CONTINUES THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS MUCH OF WW 213 AND 214...WITH A BROKEN
BAND OF STRONG STORMS OVER NWRN MO/NERN KS AND SOME SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED /BUT STILL STRONG/ CELLS OVER FAR WRN PORTIONS OF WW 214.
ONGOING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT RESULTING
FROM OUTFLOW MERGERS/ENHANCED SFC CONVERGENCE WILL STILL HAVE SOME
MARGINAL POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...FACILITATED BY APPROX 1000-1500 J/KG OF
REMAINING MLCAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KT /SAMPLED BY KDMX
VWP/. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD
ENABLE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE THREAT THIS EVENING...WITH THE
GREATEST RELATIVE POTENTIAL PERSISTING OVER SERN PORTIONS OF WW 214.

..PICCA.. 05/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39549765 42389515 42419225 40059374 39259562 38709653
            38859725 39549765





000
ACUS11 KWNS 260105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260105
LAZ000-TXZ000-260230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST/FAR EAST TX INTO LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 212...215...216...

VALID 260105Z - 260230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
212...215...216...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST/FAR EAST TX INTO LA THIS EVENING AS TORNADO WATCHES
212/215/216 CONTINUE.

DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE HAS ACCELERATED EASTWARD ACROSS EAST TX/FAR
NORTHWEST LA NEAR THE SHREVEPORT LA/LUFKIN TX AREAS AS OF 745 PM
CDT...WITH ACCELERATION LIKELY AIDED BY A REAR-INFLOW JET /PER
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA/ AND AN EXPANDING COLD POOL. IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THIS SQUALL LINE...THE 00Z SHREVEPORT OBSERVED SOUNDING
SAMPLED A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND 2700
J/KG MLCAPE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE HIGHLY
ORGANIZED/BOWING NATURE OF THE SQUALL LINE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING
WINDS/SOME TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES INTO FROM
EAST TX INTO LA THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING.

OF NOTE...A WESTWARD-MOVING BOUNDARY THAT HAS GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL LA AS OF 745 PM CDT...AND IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD AND INTERCEPT THE SQUALL LINE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN LA. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR
STORMS TO INTENSIFY/ACQUIRE ROTATION WHEN ENCOUNTERING THIS
WESTWARD-MOVING BOUNDARY...AND IT COULD BE A FACTOR FOR AN ENHANCED
OR SOMEWHAT CONCENTRATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WHEN THE
SQUALL LINE INTERCEPTS IT ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL LA THROUGH
MID/LATE EVENING...IN AN ENVIRONMENT ALREADY WELL-SUPPORTIVE OF WIND
DAMAGE/TORNADO POTENTIAL.

FARTHER SOUTHWEST...SOME ADDITIONAL/GRADUAL FORWARD ACCELERATION OF
THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN SEEMS
LIKELY THIS EVENING WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. 3000+ J/KG
MLCAPE WAS SAMPLED IN THE 00Z LAKE CHARLES RAOB WITH MIDDLE 70S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY
WITH BOWING STRUCTURES. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WITHIN THE 1-2 KM AGL ARE FORECAST TO MODESTLY INCREASE
THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING...A TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE WITH
LINE-EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS AND/OR SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT
IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX
COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHWEST LA.

..GUYER.. 05/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   32659421 32909395 32859258 31189213 30409191 29899242
            29629434 28579603 28269747 28969780 30879506 31699434
            32659421





000
ACUS11 KWNS 260105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260105
LAZ000-TXZ000-260230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST/FAR EAST TX INTO LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 212...215...216...

VALID 260105Z - 260230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
212...215...216...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST/FAR EAST TX INTO LA THIS EVENING AS TORNADO WATCHES
212/215/216 CONTINUE.

DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE HAS ACCELERATED EASTWARD ACROSS EAST TX/FAR
NORTHWEST LA NEAR THE SHREVEPORT LA/LUFKIN TX AREAS AS OF 745 PM
CDT...WITH ACCELERATION LIKELY AIDED BY A REAR-INFLOW JET /PER
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA/ AND AN EXPANDING COLD POOL. IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THIS SQUALL LINE...THE 00Z SHREVEPORT OBSERVED SOUNDING
SAMPLED A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND 2700
J/KG MLCAPE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE HIGHLY
ORGANIZED/BOWING NATURE OF THE SQUALL LINE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING
WINDS/SOME TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES INTO FROM
EAST TX INTO LA THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING.

OF NOTE...A WESTWARD-MOVING BOUNDARY THAT HAS GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL LA AS OF 745 PM CDT...AND IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD AND INTERCEPT THE SQUALL LINE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN LA. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR
STORMS TO INTENSIFY/ACQUIRE ROTATION WHEN ENCOUNTERING THIS
WESTWARD-MOVING BOUNDARY...AND IT COULD BE A FACTOR FOR AN ENHANCED
OR SOMEWHAT CONCENTRATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WHEN THE
SQUALL LINE INTERCEPTS IT ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL LA THROUGH
MID/LATE EVENING...IN AN ENVIRONMENT ALREADY WELL-SUPPORTIVE OF WIND
DAMAGE/TORNADO POTENTIAL.

FARTHER SOUTHWEST...SOME ADDITIONAL/GRADUAL FORWARD ACCELERATION OF
THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN SEEMS
LIKELY THIS EVENING WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. 3000+ J/KG
MLCAPE WAS SAMPLED IN THE 00Z LAKE CHARLES RAOB WITH MIDDLE 70S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY
WITH BOWING STRUCTURES. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WITHIN THE 1-2 KM AGL ARE FORECAST TO MODESTLY INCREASE
THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING...A TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE WITH
LINE-EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS AND/OR SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT
IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX
COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHWEST LA.

..GUYER.. 05/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   32659421 32909395 32859258 31189213 30409191 29899242
            29629434 28579603 28269747 28969780 30879506 31699434
            32659421





000
ACUS11 KWNS 260105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260105
LAZ000-TXZ000-260230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST/FAR EAST TX INTO LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 212...215...216...

VALID 260105Z - 260230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
212...215...216...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST/FAR EAST TX INTO LA THIS EVENING AS TORNADO WATCHES
212/215/216 CONTINUE.

DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE HAS ACCELERATED EASTWARD ACROSS EAST TX/FAR
NORTHWEST LA NEAR THE SHREVEPORT LA/LUFKIN TX AREAS AS OF 745 PM
CDT...WITH ACCELERATION LIKELY AIDED BY A REAR-INFLOW JET /PER
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA/ AND AN EXPANDING COLD POOL. IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THIS SQUALL LINE...THE 00Z SHREVEPORT OBSERVED SOUNDING
SAMPLED A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND 2700
J/KG MLCAPE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE HIGHLY
ORGANIZED/BOWING NATURE OF THE SQUALL LINE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING
WINDS/SOME TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES INTO FROM
EAST TX INTO LA THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING.

OF NOTE...A WESTWARD-MOVING BOUNDARY THAT HAS GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL LA AS OF 745 PM CDT...AND IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD AND INTERCEPT THE SQUALL LINE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN LA. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR
STORMS TO INTENSIFY/ACQUIRE ROTATION WHEN ENCOUNTERING THIS
WESTWARD-MOVING BOUNDARY...AND IT COULD BE A FACTOR FOR AN ENHANCED
OR SOMEWHAT CONCENTRATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WHEN THE
SQUALL LINE INTERCEPTS IT ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL LA THROUGH
MID/LATE EVENING...IN AN ENVIRONMENT ALREADY WELL-SUPPORTIVE OF WIND
DAMAGE/TORNADO POTENTIAL.

FARTHER SOUTHWEST...SOME ADDITIONAL/GRADUAL FORWARD ACCELERATION OF
THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN SEEMS
LIKELY THIS EVENING WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. 3000+ J/KG
MLCAPE WAS SAMPLED IN THE 00Z LAKE CHARLES RAOB WITH MIDDLE 70S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY
WITH BOWING STRUCTURES. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WITHIN THE 1-2 KM AGL ARE FORECAST TO MODESTLY INCREASE
THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING...A TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE WITH
LINE-EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS AND/OR SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT
IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX
COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHWEST LA.

..GUYER.. 05/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   32659421 32909395 32859258 31189213 30409191 29899242
            29629434 28579603 28269747 28969780 30879506 31699434
            32659421






000
ACUS11 KWNS 260105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260105
LAZ000-TXZ000-260230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST/FAR EAST TX INTO LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 212...215...216...

VALID 260105Z - 260230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
212...215...216...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST/FAR EAST TX INTO LA THIS EVENING AS TORNADO WATCHES
212/215/216 CONTINUE.

DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE HAS ACCELERATED EASTWARD ACROSS EAST TX/FAR
NORTHWEST LA NEAR THE SHREVEPORT LA/LUFKIN TX AREAS AS OF 745 PM
CDT...WITH ACCELERATION LIKELY AIDED BY A REAR-INFLOW JET /PER
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA/ AND AN EXPANDING COLD POOL. IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THIS SQUALL LINE...THE 00Z SHREVEPORT OBSERVED SOUNDING
SAMPLED A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND 2700
J/KG MLCAPE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE HIGHLY
ORGANIZED/BOWING NATURE OF THE SQUALL LINE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING
WINDS/SOME TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES INTO FROM
EAST TX INTO LA THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING.

OF NOTE...A WESTWARD-MOVING BOUNDARY THAT HAS GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL LA AS OF 745 PM CDT...AND IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD AND INTERCEPT THE SQUALL LINE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN LA. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR
STORMS TO INTENSIFY/ACQUIRE ROTATION WHEN ENCOUNTERING THIS
WESTWARD-MOVING BOUNDARY...AND IT COULD BE A FACTOR FOR AN ENHANCED
OR SOMEWHAT CONCENTRATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WHEN THE
SQUALL LINE INTERCEPTS IT ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL LA THROUGH
MID/LATE EVENING...IN AN ENVIRONMENT ALREADY WELL-SUPPORTIVE OF WIND
DAMAGE/TORNADO POTENTIAL.

FARTHER SOUTHWEST...SOME ADDITIONAL/GRADUAL FORWARD ACCELERATION OF
THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN SEEMS
LIKELY THIS EVENING WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. 3000+ J/KG
MLCAPE WAS SAMPLED IN THE 00Z LAKE CHARLES RAOB WITH MIDDLE 70S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY
WITH BOWING STRUCTURES. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WITHIN THE 1-2 KM AGL ARE FORECAST TO MODESTLY INCREASE
THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING...A TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE WITH
LINE-EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS AND/OR SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT
IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX
COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHWEST LA.

..GUYER.. 05/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   32659421 32909395 32859258 31189213 30409191 29899242
            29629434 28579603 28269747 28969780 30879506 31699434
            32659421





000
ACUS11 KWNS 260105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260105
LAZ000-TXZ000-260230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST/FAR EAST TX INTO LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 212...215...216...

VALID 260105Z - 260230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
212...215...216...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST/FAR EAST TX INTO LA THIS EVENING AS TORNADO WATCHES
212/215/216 CONTINUE.

DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE HAS ACCELERATED EASTWARD ACROSS EAST TX/FAR
NORTHWEST LA NEAR THE SHREVEPORT LA/LUFKIN TX AREAS AS OF 745 PM
CDT...WITH ACCELERATION LIKELY AIDED BY A REAR-INFLOW JET /PER
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA/ AND AN EXPANDING COLD POOL. IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THIS SQUALL LINE...THE 00Z SHREVEPORT OBSERVED SOUNDING
SAMPLED A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND 2700
J/KG MLCAPE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE HIGHLY
ORGANIZED/BOWING NATURE OF THE SQUALL LINE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING
WINDS/SOME TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES INTO FROM
EAST TX INTO LA THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING.

OF NOTE...A WESTWARD-MOVING BOUNDARY THAT HAS GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL LA AS OF 745 PM CDT...AND IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD AND INTERCEPT THE SQUALL LINE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN LA. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR
STORMS TO INTENSIFY/ACQUIRE ROTATION WHEN ENCOUNTERING THIS
WESTWARD-MOVING BOUNDARY...AND IT COULD BE A FACTOR FOR AN ENHANCED
OR SOMEWHAT CONCENTRATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WHEN THE
SQUALL LINE INTERCEPTS IT ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL LA THROUGH
MID/LATE EVENING...IN AN ENVIRONMENT ALREADY WELL-SUPPORTIVE OF WIND
DAMAGE/TORNADO POTENTIAL.

FARTHER SOUTHWEST...SOME ADDITIONAL/GRADUAL FORWARD ACCELERATION OF
THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN SEEMS
LIKELY THIS EVENING WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. 3000+ J/KG
MLCAPE WAS SAMPLED IN THE 00Z LAKE CHARLES RAOB WITH MIDDLE 70S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY
WITH BOWING STRUCTURES. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WITHIN THE 1-2 KM AGL ARE FORECAST TO MODESTLY INCREASE
THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING...A TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE WITH
LINE-EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS AND/OR SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT
IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX
COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHWEST LA.

..GUYER.. 05/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   32659421 32909395 32859258 31189213 30409191 29899242
            29629434 28579603 28269747 28969780 30879506 31699434
            32659421






000
ACUS11 KWNS 260105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260105
LAZ000-TXZ000-260230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST/FAR EAST TX INTO LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 212...215...216...

VALID 260105Z - 260230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
212...215...216...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST/FAR EAST TX INTO LA THIS EVENING AS TORNADO WATCHES
212/215/216 CONTINUE.

DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE HAS ACCELERATED EASTWARD ACROSS EAST TX/FAR
NORTHWEST LA NEAR THE SHREVEPORT LA/LUFKIN TX AREAS AS OF 745 PM
CDT...WITH ACCELERATION LIKELY AIDED BY A REAR-INFLOW JET /PER
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA/ AND AN EXPANDING COLD POOL. IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THIS SQUALL LINE...THE 00Z SHREVEPORT OBSERVED SOUNDING
SAMPLED A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND 2700
J/KG MLCAPE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE HIGHLY
ORGANIZED/BOWING NATURE OF THE SQUALL LINE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING
WINDS/SOME TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN DISTINCT POSSIBILITIES INTO FROM
EAST TX INTO LA THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING.

OF NOTE...A WESTWARD-MOVING BOUNDARY THAT HAS GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM
SOUTHERN MS INTO CENTRAL LA AS OF 745 PM CDT...AND IT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD AND INTERCEPT THE SQUALL LINE
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN LA. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR
STORMS TO INTENSIFY/ACQUIRE ROTATION WHEN ENCOUNTERING THIS
WESTWARD-MOVING BOUNDARY...AND IT COULD BE A FACTOR FOR AN ENHANCED
OR SOMEWHAT CONCENTRATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WHEN THE
SQUALL LINE INTERCEPTS IT ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL LA THROUGH
MID/LATE EVENING...IN AN ENVIRONMENT ALREADY WELL-SUPPORTIVE OF WIND
DAMAGE/TORNADO POTENTIAL.

FARTHER SOUTHWEST...SOME ADDITIONAL/GRADUAL FORWARD ACCELERATION OF
THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN SEEMS
LIKELY THIS EVENING WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. 3000+ J/KG
MLCAPE WAS SAMPLED IN THE 00Z LAKE CHARLES RAOB WITH MIDDLE 70S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY
WITH BOWING STRUCTURES. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WITHIN THE 1-2 KM AGL ARE FORECAST TO MODESTLY INCREASE
THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING...A TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE WITH
LINE-EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS AND/OR SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT
IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX
COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHWEST LA.

..GUYER.. 05/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   32659421 32909395 32859258 31189213 30409191 29899242
            29629434 28579603 28269747 28969780 30879506 31699434
            32659421





000
ACUS01 KWNS 260049
SWODY1
SPC AC 260048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF SURROUNDING
SOUTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU AND
PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF GENERATING SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A
FEW TORNADOES REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO PARTS OF
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO PERSISTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY.

...TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING...WITH A COUPLE OF
BROAD BOWING SEGMENTS/LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERNS EVIDENT IN RADAR
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AS IT ADVANCES EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS
OF THE OZARK PLATEAU AND TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN.  PERHAPS DUE TO
SOMEWHAT MODEST AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /30-40 KT AT 850 MB/
AND THE LACK OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SEVERE WIND GUSTS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LOCALIZED BASED ON ASOS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DURING
THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE.  HOWEVER... SIZABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
AND SEASONABLY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD STILL
MAINTAIN THE RISK FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND
GUSTS/TORNADOES...ASSOCIATED WITH MESOVORTICES ALONG THE
CONGLOMERATE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD POOL...ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS
THIS EVENING.  MEANWHILE...A TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY
ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS FORMING JUST AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE.

HIGHEST SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
PERIOD APPEAR TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
PLAIN INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RICHER
/LOWER TO MID 70S F/.  THE EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER
STRENGTHENING/SURGING COLD POOL ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SQUALL
LINE STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD IMPACT MUCH OF THE HOUSTON
METRO AREA BY 03-06Z.

...MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS
BECOME INCREASING EVIDENT THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY...DOWNSTREAM OF THE REMNANTS OF A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION PROGRESSING EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...
AND AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS HAS SUPPORTED AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY LARGE CAPE...AND AT LEAST
MODEST SHEAR BENEATH 30-40+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW.  THROUGH
03-06Z...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE
EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZING STORM CLUSTER...WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK
FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL...BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WANES LATER THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 05/26/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 260049
SWODY1
SPC AC 260048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF SURROUNDING
SOUTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU AND
PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF GENERATING SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A
FEW TORNADOES REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO PARTS OF
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO PERSISTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY.

...TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING...WITH A COUPLE OF
BROAD BOWING SEGMENTS/LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERNS EVIDENT IN RADAR
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AS IT ADVANCES EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS
OF THE OZARK PLATEAU AND TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN.  PERHAPS DUE TO
SOMEWHAT MODEST AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /30-40 KT AT 850 MB/
AND THE LACK OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SEVERE WIND GUSTS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LOCALIZED BASED ON ASOS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DURING
THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE.  HOWEVER... SIZABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
AND SEASONABLY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD STILL
MAINTAIN THE RISK FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND
GUSTS/TORNADOES...ASSOCIATED WITH MESOVORTICES ALONG THE
CONGLOMERATE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD POOL...ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS
THIS EVENING.  MEANWHILE...A TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY
ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS FORMING JUST AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE.

HIGHEST SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
PERIOD APPEAR TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
PLAIN INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RICHER
/LOWER TO MID 70S F/.  THE EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER
STRENGTHENING/SURGING COLD POOL ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SQUALL
LINE STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD IMPACT MUCH OF THE HOUSTON
METRO AREA BY 03-06Z.

...MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS
BECOME INCREASING EVIDENT THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY...DOWNSTREAM OF THE REMNANTS OF A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION PROGRESSING EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...
AND AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS HAS SUPPORTED AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY LARGE CAPE...AND AT LEAST
MODEST SHEAR BENEATH 30-40+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW.  THROUGH
03-06Z...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE
EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZING STORM CLUSTER...WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK
FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL...BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WANES LATER THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 05/26/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 260049
SWODY1
SPC AC 260048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF SURROUNDING
SOUTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU AND
PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF GENERATING SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A
FEW TORNADOES REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO PARTS OF
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO PERSISTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY.

...TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING...WITH A COUPLE OF
BROAD BOWING SEGMENTS/LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERNS EVIDENT IN RADAR
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AS IT ADVANCES EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS
OF THE OZARK PLATEAU AND TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN.  PERHAPS DUE TO
SOMEWHAT MODEST AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /30-40 KT AT 850 MB/
AND THE LACK OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SEVERE WIND GUSTS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LOCALIZED BASED ON ASOS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DURING
THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE.  HOWEVER... SIZABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
AND SEASONABLY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD STILL
MAINTAIN THE RISK FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND
GUSTS/TORNADOES...ASSOCIATED WITH MESOVORTICES ALONG THE
CONGLOMERATE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD POOL...ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS
THIS EVENING.  MEANWHILE...A TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY
ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS FORMING JUST AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE.

HIGHEST SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
PERIOD APPEAR TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
PLAIN INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RICHER
/LOWER TO MID 70S F/.  THE EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER
STRENGTHENING/SURGING COLD POOL ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SQUALL
LINE STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD IMPACT MUCH OF THE HOUSTON
METRO AREA BY 03-06Z.

...MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS
BECOME INCREASING EVIDENT THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY...DOWNSTREAM OF THE REMNANTS OF A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION PROGRESSING EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...
AND AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS HAS SUPPORTED AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY LARGE CAPE...AND AT LEAST
MODEST SHEAR BENEATH 30-40+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW.  THROUGH
03-06Z...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE
EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZING STORM CLUSTER...WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK
FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL...BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WANES LATER THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 05/26/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 260049
SWODY1
SPC AC 260048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF SURROUNDING
SOUTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU AND
PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF GENERATING SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A
FEW TORNADOES REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO PARTS OF
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO PERSISTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY.

...TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY ONGOING...WITH A COUPLE OF
BROAD BOWING SEGMENTS/LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERNS EVIDENT IN RADAR
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AS IT ADVANCES EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS
OF THE OZARK PLATEAU AND TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN.  PERHAPS DUE TO
SOMEWHAT MODEST AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /30-40 KT AT 850 MB/
AND THE LACK OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SEVERE WIND GUSTS
HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LOCALIZED BASED ON ASOS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DURING
THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE.  HOWEVER... SIZABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
AND SEASONABLY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD STILL
MAINTAIN THE RISK FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND
GUSTS/TORNADOES...ASSOCIATED WITH MESOVORTICES ALONG THE
CONGLOMERATE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD POOL...ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS
THIS EVENING.  MEANWHILE...A TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY
ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS FORMING JUST AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE.

HIGHEST SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
PERIOD APPEAR TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
PLAIN INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE RICHER
/LOWER TO MID 70S F/.  THE EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER
STRENGTHENING/SURGING COLD POOL ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SQUALL
LINE STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD IMPACT MUCH OF THE HOUSTON
METRO AREA BY 03-06Z.

...MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION HAS
BECOME INCREASING EVIDENT THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY...DOWNSTREAM OF THE REMNANTS OF A MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION PROGRESSING EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...
AND AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS HAS SUPPORTED AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY LARGE CAPE...AND AT LEAST
MODEST SHEAR BENEATH 30-40+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW.  THROUGH
03-06Z...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE
EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZING STORM CLUSTER...WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK
FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL...BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WANES LATER THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 05/26/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252357
MOZ000-260130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 252357Z - 260130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WATCH IS LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO
FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF WIND DAMAGE AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THE NORTHERN/COMMAHEAD PORTION OF A SQUALL LINE SHOULD
STEADILY APPROACH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...WITH AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR WIND DAMAGE AND
SOME TORNADO RISK. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF A TORNADO RISK COULD DEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO AT LEAST FAR
SOUTHERN MO AHEAD OF THE BROADER CONVECTIVE LINE. THE PRECEDING AIR
MASS FROM NORTHERN AR INTO SOUTHERN MO REMAINS WARM...WITH SOME
UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MO.
THIS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...COUPLED WITH
THE WELL ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SQUALL LINE /INCREASING REAR INFLOW
ETC./ AND AN ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST
SOME WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP INTO SOUTHERN MO THIS
EVENING.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36589406 36999417 37849246 37889078 36909044 36509121
            36589406





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252357
MOZ000-260130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 252357Z - 260130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WATCH IS LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO
FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF WIND DAMAGE AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THE NORTHERN/COMMAHEAD PORTION OF A SQUALL LINE SHOULD
STEADILY APPROACH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...WITH AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR WIND DAMAGE AND
SOME TORNADO RISK. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF A TORNADO RISK COULD DEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO AT LEAST FAR
SOUTHERN MO AHEAD OF THE BROADER CONVECTIVE LINE. THE PRECEDING AIR
MASS FROM NORTHERN AR INTO SOUTHERN MO REMAINS WARM...WITH SOME
UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MO.
THIS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...COUPLED WITH
THE WELL ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SQUALL LINE /INCREASING REAR INFLOW
ETC./ AND AN ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST
SOME WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP INTO SOUTHERN MO THIS
EVENING.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36589406 36999417 37849246 37889078 36909044 36509121
            36589406






000
ACUS11 KWNS 252357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252357
MOZ000-260130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 252357Z - 260130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WATCH IS LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO
FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF WIND DAMAGE AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THE NORTHERN/COMMAHEAD PORTION OF A SQUALL LINE SHOULD
STEADILY APPROACH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...WITH AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR WIND DAMAGE AND
SOME TORNADO RISK. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF A TORNADO RISK COULD DEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO AT LEAST FAR
SOUTHERN MO AHEAD OF THE BROADER CONVECTIVE LINE. THE PRECEDING AIR
MASS FROM NORTHERN AR INTO SOUTHERN MO REMAINS WARM...WITH SOME
UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MO.
THIS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...COUPLED WITH
THE WELL ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SQUALL LINE /INCREASING REAR INFLOW
ETC./ AND AN ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST
SOME WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP INTO SOUTHERN MO THIS
EVENING.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36589406 36999417 37849246 37889078 36909044 36509121
            36589406





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252357
MOZ000-260130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 252357Z - 260130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WATCH IS LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO
FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF WIND DAMAGE AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THE NORTHERN/COMMAHEAD PORTION OF A SQUALL LINE SHOULD
STEADILY APPROACH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...WITH AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR WIND DAMAGE AND
SOME TORNADO RISK. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF A TORNADO RISK COULD DEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO AT LEAST FAR
SOUTHERN MO AHEAD OF THE BROADER CONVECTIVE LINE. THE PRECEDING AIR
MASS FROM NORTHERN AR INTO SOUTHERN MO REMAINS WARM...WITH SOME
UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MO.
THIS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...COUPLED WITH
THE WELL ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SQUALL LINE /INCREASING REAR INFLOW
ETC./ AND AN ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST
SOME WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP INTO SOUTHERN MO THIS
EVENING.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36589406 36999417 37849246 37889078 36909044 36509121
            36589406






000
ACUS11 KWNS 252357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252357
MOZ000-260130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 252357Z - 260130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WATCH IS LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO
FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF WIND DAMAGE AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THE NORTHERN/COMMAHEAD PORTION OF A SQUALL LINE SHOULD
STEADILY APPROACH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...WITH AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR WIND DAMAGE AND
SOME TORNADO RISK. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF A TORNADO RISK COULD DEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO AT LEAST FAR
SOUTHERN MO AHEAD OF THE BROADER CONVECTIVE LINE. THE PRECEDING AIR
MASS FROM NORTHERN AR INTO SOUTHERN MO REMAINS WARM...WITH SOME
UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MO.
THIS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...COUPLED WITH
THE WELL ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SQUALL LINE /INCREASING REAR INFLOW
ETC./ AND AN ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS THIS EVENING...SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST
SOME WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP INTO SOUTHERN MO THIS
EVENING.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36589406 36999417 37849246 37889078 36909044 36509121
            36589406





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252339
KSZ000-260115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL-ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213...

VALID 252339Z - 260115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS WW 213...WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL LIKELY FOCUSING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE CONVECTION ARE
CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE WW. AT PRESENT...THE STRONGEST OF THESE
IS EVOLVING OVER FAR NERN KS...LIKELY THE RESULT OF A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH. OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE
WW...WEAKER DEVELOPMENT IS PERSISTING...POTENTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO
N/NEWD PROGRESSING MCV AND ATTENDANT SFC CONFLUENCE EXTENDING NWD.
GOES 1-MIN IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION IS OUTFLOW DOMINANT...WITH STRONG COLD POOLS GENERATING
NEW DEVELOPMENT. WHILE SUCH AN EVOLUTION WILL PROMOTE CELL MERGERS
AND SOME DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE...PERSISTENT DEVELOPMENT MAY STILL
BE ABLE TO UTILIZE A REMNANT PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT MAY SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF INSOLATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. MOREOVER...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
OF THE WIND FIELD.

..PICCA.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39849780 39999709 39979573 39059571 38389598 37089616
            37069779 37199826 38649835 39849780





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252339
KSZ000-260115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL-ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213...

VALID 252339Z - 260115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS WW 213...WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL LIKELY FOCUSING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE CONVECTION ARE
CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE WW. AT PRESENT...THE STRONGEST OF THESE
IS EVOLVING OVER FAR NERN KS...LIKELY THE RESULT OF A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH. OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE
WW...WEAKER DEVELOPMENT IS PERSISTING...POTENTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO
N/NEWD PROGRESSING MCV AND ATTENDANT SFC CONFLUENCE EXTENDING NWD.
GOES 1-MIN IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION IS OUTFLOW DOMINANT...WITH STRONG COLD POOLS GENERATING
NEW DEVELOPMENT. WHILE SUCH AN EVOLUTION WILL PROMOTE CELL MERGERS
AND SOME DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE...PERSISTENT DEVELOPMENT MAY STILL
BE ABLE TO UTILIZE A REMNANT PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT MAY SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF INSOLATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. MOREOVER...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
OF THE WIND FIELD.

..PICCA.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39849780 39999709 39979573 39059571 38389598 37089616
            37069779 37199826 38649835 39849780





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252339
KSZ000-260115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL-ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213...

VALID 252339Z - 260115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS WW 213...WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL LIKELY FOCUSING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE CONVECTION ARE
CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE WW. AT PRESENT...THE STRONGEST OF THESE
IS EVOLVING OVER FAR NERN KS...LIKELY THE RESULT OF A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH. OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE
WW...WEAKER DEVELOPMENT IS PERSISTING...POTENTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO
N/NEWD PROGRESSING MCV AND ATTENDANT SFC CONFLUENCE EXTENDING NWD.
GOES 1-MIN IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION IS OUTFLOW DOMINANT...WITH STRONG COLD POOLS GENERATING
NEW DEVELOPMENT. WHILE SUCH AN EVOLUTION WILL PROMOTE CELL MERGERS
AND SOME DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE...PERSISTENT DEVELOPMENT MAY STILL
BE ABLE TO UTILIZE A REMNANT PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT MAY SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF INSOLATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. MOREOVER...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
OF THE WIND FIELD.

..PICCA.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39849780 39999709 39979573 39059571 38389598 37089616
            37069779 37199826 38649835 39849780





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252339
KSZ000-260115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL-ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213...

VALID 252339Z - 260115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS WW 213...WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL LIKELY FOCUSING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE CONVECTION ARE
CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE WW. AT PRESENT...THE STRONGEST OF THESE
IS EVOLVING OVER FAR NERN KS...LIKELY THE RESULT OF A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH. OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE
WW...WEAKER DEVELOPMENT IS PERSISTING...POTENTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO
N/NEWD PROGRESSING MCV AND ATTENDANT SFC CONFLUENCE EXTENDING NWD.
GOES 1-MIN IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION IS OUTFLOW DOMINANT...WITH STRONG COLD POOLS GENERATING
NEW DEVELOPMENT. WHILE SUCH AN EVOLUTION WILL PROMOTE CELL MERGERS
AND SOME DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE...PERSISTENT DEVELOPMENT MAY STILL
BE ABLE TO UTILIZE A REMNANT PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT MAY SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF INSOLATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. MOREOVER...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
OF THE WIND FIELD.

..PICCA.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39849780 39999709 39979573 39059571 38389598 37089616
            37069779 37199826 38649835 39849780





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252339
KSZ000-260115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL-ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213...

VALID 252339Z - 260115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS WW 213...WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL LIKELY FOCUSING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE CONVECTION ARE
CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE WW. AT PRESENT...THE STRONGEST OF THESE
IS EVOLVING OVER FAR NERN KS...LIKELY THE RESULT OF A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH. OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE
WW...WEAKER DEVELOPMENT IS PERSISTING...POTENTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO
N/NEWD PROGRESSING MCV AND ATTENDANT SFC CONFLUENCE EXTENDING NWD.
GOES 1-MIN IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION IS OUTFLOW DOMINANT...WITH STRONG COLD POOLS GENERATING
NEW DEVELOPMENT. WHILE SUCH AN EVOLUTION WILL PROMOTE CELL MERGERS
AND SOME DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE...PERSISTENT DEVELOPMENT MAY STILL
BE ABLE TO UTILIZE A REMNANT PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT MAY SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF INSOLATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. MOREOVER...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
OF THE WIND FIELD.

..PICCA.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39849780 39999709 39979573 39059571 38389598 37089616
            37069779 37199826 38649835 39849780






000
ACUS11 KWNS 252339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252339
KSZ000-260115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL-ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213...

VALID 252339Z - 260115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS WW 213...WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL LIKELY FOCUSING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE CONVECTION ARE
CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE WW. AT PRESENT...THE STRONGEST OF THESE
IS EVOLVING OVER FAR NERN KS...LIKELY THE RESULT OF A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH. OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE
WW...WEAKER DEVELOPMENT IS PERSISTING...POTENTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO
N/NEWD PROGRESSING MCV AND ATTENDANT SFC CONFLUENCE EXTENDING NWD.
GOES 1-MIN IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION IS OUTFLOW DOMINANT...WITH STRONG COLD POOLS GENERATING
NEW DEVELOPMENT. WHILE SUCH AN EVOLUTION WILL PROMOTE CELL MERGERS
AND SOME DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE...PERSISTENT DEVELOPMENT MAY STILL
BE ABLE TO UTILIZE A REMNANT PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT MAY SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF INSOLATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. MOREOVER...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
OF THE WIND FIELD.

..PICCA.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39849780 39999709 39979573 39059571 38389598 37089616
            37069779 37199826 38649835 39849780






000
ACUS11 KWNS 252307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252306
LAZ000-TXZ000-260000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0772
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST INTO SOUTHERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 252306Z - 260000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST INTO SOUTHERN LA...WITH CONCERNS FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...A COMPOSITE SQUALL CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD/REGENERATE ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO AREAS AS OF 6 PM CDT/23Z. CONTINUED CELL
MERGERS...SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF A VERY
UNSTABLE/MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY LAYER /MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S F
DEWPOINTS/...ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC
WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR EASTWARD STORM SUSTENANCE INTO
ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN AND
EVENTUALLY WESTERN/SOUTHERN LA TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO
RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY AS NEAR-SURFACE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SRH.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28729718 29779671 31189378 30889260 29909303 28619549
            28729718





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252306
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-260100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0771
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN SD...NRN IA...SRN MN...WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 252306Z - 260100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME CONTINUING
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE GROWTH NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT
AND CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM FAR SERN SD NEWD INTO SRN MN
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THIS EVENING. WHILE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES YIELD A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE THAN THAT TO
THE SW...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS OFFERING A SUBSTANTIVELY
STRONGER WIND FIELD. IN TURN...ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCED UPDRAFT STRENGTH/ORGANIZATION AND LATEST
88D/MRMS DATA ILLUSTRATE A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS TO THE S/E OF FSD
/WHICH HAVE PRODUCED 1-1.75 IN HAIL/. MOST LIKELY...FORCING FOR
ASCENT FROM A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TO THE WEST AND SOME FURTHER
INSOLATION WILL COMBINE WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES TO YIELD MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AS SUCH...WW
ISSUANCE MAY BE NECESSARY.

..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   42679665 43449725 44119589 44499136 44038967 42949035
            42679665





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252306
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-260100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0771
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN SD...NRN IA...SRN MN...WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 252306Z - 260100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME CONTINUING
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE GROWTH NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT
AND CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM FAR SERN SD NEWD INTO SRN MN
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THIS EVENING. WHILE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES YIELD A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE THAN THAT TO
THE SW...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS OFFERING A SUBSTANTIVELY
STRONGER WIND FIELD. IN TURN...ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCED UPDRAFT STRENGTH/ORGANIZATION AND LATEST
88D/MRMS DATA ILLUSTRATE A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS TO THE S/E OF FSD
/WHICH HAVE PRODUCED 1-1.75 IN HAIL/. MOST LIKELY...FORCING FOR
ASCENT FROM A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TO THE WEST AND SOME FURTHER
INSOLATION WILL COMBINE WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES TO YIELD MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AS SUCH...WW
ISSUANCE MAY BE NECESSARY.

..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   42679665 43449725 44119589 44499136 44038967 42949035
            42679665





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252306
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-260100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0771
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN SD...NRN IA...SRN MN...WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 252306Z - 260100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME CONTINUING
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE GROWTH NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT
AND CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM FAR SERN SD NEWD INTO SRN MN
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THIS EVENING. WHILE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES YIELD A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LESS FAVORABLE THAN THAT TO
THE SW...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS OFFERING A SUBSTANTIVELY
STRONGER WIND FIELD. IN TURN...ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LIKELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCED UPDRAFT STRENGTH/ORGANIZATION AND LATEST
88D/MRMS DATA ILLUSTRATE A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS TO THE S/E OF FSD
/WHICH HAVE PRODUCED 1-1.75 IN HAIL/. MOST LIKELY...FORCING FOR
ASCENT FROM A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TO THE WEST AND SOME FURTHER
INSOLATION WILL COMBINE WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES TO YIELD MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING...CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AS SUCH...WW
ISSUANCE MAY BE NECESSARY.

..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   42679665 43449725 44119589 44499136 44038967 42949035
            42679665






000
ACUS11 KWNS 252215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252215
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-252345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0770
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK AND NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX TO
WESTERN/CENTRAL AR AND NORTHERN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 212...

VALID 252215Z - 252345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 212 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN OK AND NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX
INTO AR/NORTHERN LA THROUGH EARLY/MID-EVENING. POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN CONCERNS
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR.

A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON ESPECIALLY FOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL AR AND NORTHERN LA. TORNADO WATCH 212 CONTINUES
UNTIL 03Z.

DISCUSSION...A HIGHLY ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED
LEWPS/CIRCULATIONS  CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK AND
NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX AS OF 5PM CDT/22Z. POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A PREVALENT CONCERN. TORNADOES WILL ALSO
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES AND SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. THIS SHOULD
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS FAR EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK AND FAR
NORTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL AR...PARTICULARLY NEAR AN
INFLECTION IN THE LINE NEARING THE OK AND AR BORDER VICINITY /AT
22Z/ COINCIDENT WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE MAXIMIZED. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT WARM
SECTOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING WELL AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE ACROSS NORTHERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL AR MAY
INCREASINGLY ACQUIRE ROTATION AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES...SUCH THAT AN INCREASING TORNADO RISK COULD OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   35349535 35679518 36289410 36299192 35309113 32409165
            31429302 31879526 33849508 35349535






000
ACUS11 KWNS 252215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252215
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-252345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0770
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK AND NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX TO
WESTERN/CENTRAL AR AND NORTHERN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 212...

VALID 252215Z - 252345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 212 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN OK AND NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX
INTO AR/NORTHERN LA THROUGH EARLY/MID-EVENING. POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN CONCERNS
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR.

A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON ESPECIALLY FOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL AR AND NORTHERN LA. TORNADO WATCH 212 CONTINUES
UNTIL 03Z.

DISCUSSION...A HIGHLY ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED
LEWPS/CIRCULATIONS  CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK AND
NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX AS OF 5PM CDT/22Z. POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A PREVALENT CONCERN. TORNADOES WILL ALSO
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES AND SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. THIS SHOULD
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS FAR EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK AND FAR
NORTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL AR...PARTICULARLY NEAR AN
INFLECTION IN THE LINE NEARING THE OK AND AR BORDER VICINITY /AT
22Z/ COINCIDENT WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE MAXIMIZED. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT WARM
SECTOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING WELL AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE ACROSS NORTHERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL AR MAY
INCREASINGLY ACQUIRE ROTATION AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES...SUCH THAT AN INCREASING TORNADO RISK COULD OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   35349535 35679518 36289410 36299192 35309113 32409165
            31429302 31879526 33849508 35349535





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252215
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-252345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0770
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK AND NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX TO
WESTERN/CENTRAL AR AND NORTHERN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 212...

VALID 252215Z - 252345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 212 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN OK AND NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX
INTO AR/NORTHERN LA THROUGH EARLY/MID-EVENING. POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN CONCERNS
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR.

A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON ESPECIALLY FOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL AR AND NORTHERN LA. TORNADO WATCH 212 CONTINUES
UNTIL 03Z.

DISCUSSION...A HIGHLY ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED
LEWPS/CIRCULATIONS  CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK AND
NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX AS OF 5PM CDT/22Z. POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A PREVALENT CONCERN. TORNADOES WILL ALSO
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES AND SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. THIS SHOULD
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS FAR EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK AND FAR
NORTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL AR...PARTICULARLY NEAR AN
INFLECTION IN THE LINE NEARING THE OK AND AR BORDER VICINITY /AT
22Z/ COINCIDENT WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE MAXIMIZED. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT WARM
SECTOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING WELL AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE ACROSS NORTHERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL AR MAY
INCREASINGLY ACQUIRE ROTATION AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES...SUCH THAT AN INCREASING TORNADO RISK COULD OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   35349535 35679518 36289410 36299192 35309113 32409165
            31429302 31879526 33849508 35349535





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252215
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-252345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0770
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK AND NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX TO
WESTERN/CENTRAL AR AND NORTHERN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 212...

VALID 252215Z - 252345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 212 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM EASTERN OK AND NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX
INTO AR/NORTHERN LA THROUGH EARLY/MID-EVENING. POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN CONCERNS
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR.

A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON ESPECIALLY FOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL AR AND NORTHERN LA. TORNADO WATCH 212 CONTINUES
UNTIL 03Z.

DISCUSSION...A HIGHLY ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED
LEWPS/CIRCULATIONS  CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK AND
NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX AS OF 5PM CDT/22Z. POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A PREVALENT CONCERN. TORNADOES WILL ALSO
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES AND SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. THIS SHOULD
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS FAR EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK AND FAR
NORTHEAST TX INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL AR...PARTICULARLY NEAR AN
INFLECTION IN THE LINE NEARING THE OK AND AR BORDER VICINITY /AT
22Z/ COINCIDENT WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE MAXIMIZED. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT WARM
SECTOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING WELL AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE ACROSS NORTHERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL AR MAY
INCREASINGLY ACQUIRE ROTATION AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES...SUCH THAT AN INCREASING TORNADO RISK COULD OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   35349535 35679518 36289410 36299192 35309113 32409165
            31429302 31879526 33849508 35349535





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252208
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-252315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0769
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NEB...NWRN MO...AND WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 252208Z - 252315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW
ISSUANCE...WITH THE PRIMARY CONDITIONAL THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...WHILE STRONG/ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS YET TO
MATERIALIZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. LATEST GOES SUPER RAPID SCAN IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE CU FIELD CENTERED OVER THE MO VALLEY...WITH A
ZONE OF ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT/TOWERING CU NEAR OMA. WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A SLOWLY APPROACHING IMPULSE TO
THE WEST...CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE FURTHER AUGMENTED...AS
ADEQUATE HEATING AND RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS HAVE SUPPLIED
MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500-2000 J/KG. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP
FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THE WEAKENING OF ANY CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION REMAINING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE THE BACKGROUND
WIND FIELD IS CHARACTERIZED BY FAIRLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF
MARGINAL STRENGTH...STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MAY PROVIDE AMPLE
VENTING TO FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. FURTHERMORE...THE LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IS NOW OCCURRING ACROSS FAR SERN NEB...POTENTIALLY IN A ZONE OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG ANVIL DEBRIS. THEREFORE...THERE CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS
AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER THE AREA...AS WELL AS A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO...AND WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.

..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   40669404 40069411 39459426 39329511 39499557 40159777
            40939782 42379726 42619644 42719472 42079400 40669404





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252208
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-252315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0769
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NEB...NWRN MO...AND WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 252208Z - 252315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW
ISSUANCE...WITH THE PRIMARY CONDITIONAL THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...WHILE STRONG/ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS YET TO
MATERIALIZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. LATEST GOES SUPER RAPID SCAN IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE CU FIELD CENTERED OVER THE MO VALLEY...WITH A
ZONE OF ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT/TOWERING CU NEAR OMA. WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A SLOWLY APPROACHING IMPULSE TO
THE WEST...CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE FURTHER AUGMENTED...AS
ADEQUATE HEATING AND RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS HAVE SUPPLIED
MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500-2000 J/KG. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP
FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THE WEAKENING OF ANY CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION REMAINING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE THE BACKGROUND
WIND FIELD IS CHARACTERIZED BY FAIRLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF
MARGINAL STRENGTH...STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MAY PROVIDE AMPLE
VENTING TO FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. FURTHERMORE...THE LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IS NOW OCCURRING ACROSS FAR SERN NEB...POTENTIALLY IN A ZONE OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG ANVIL DEBRIS. THEREFORE...THERE CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS
AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER THE AREA...AS WELL AS A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO...AND WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.

..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   40669404 40069411 39459426 39329511 39499557 40159777
            40939782 42379726 42619644 42719472 42079400 40669404





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252208
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-252315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0769
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NEB...NWRN MO...AND WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 252208Z - 252315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW
ISSUANCE...WITH THE PRIMARY CONDITIONAL THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...WHILE STRONG/ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS YET TO
MATERIALIZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. LATEST GOES SUPER RAPID SCAN IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE CU FIELD CENTERED OVER THE MO VALLEY...WITH A
ZONE OF ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT/TOWERING CU NEAR OMA. WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A SLOWLY APPROACHING IMPULSE TO
THE WEST...CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE FURTHER AUGMENTED...AS
ADEQUATE HEATING AND RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS HAVE SUPPLIED
MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500-2000 J/KG. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP
FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THE WEAKENING OF ANY CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION REMAINING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE THE BACKGROUND
WIND FIELD IS CHARACTERIZED BY FAIRLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF
MARGINAL STRENGTH...STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MAY PROVIDE AMPLE
VENTING TO FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. FURTHERMORE...THE LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IS NOW OCCURRING ACROSS FAR SERN NEB...POTENTIALLY IN A ZONE OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG ANVIL DEBRIS. THEREFORE...THERE CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS
AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER THE AREA...AS WELL AS A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO...AND WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.

..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   40669404 40069411 39459426 39329511 39499557 40159777
            40939782 42379726 42619644 42719472 42079400 40669404





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252208
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-252315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0769
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NEB...NWRN MO...AND WRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 252208Z - 252315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW
ISSUANCE...WITH THE PRIMARY CONDITIONAL THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...WHILE STRONG/ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS YET TO
MATERIALIZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. LATEST GOES SUPER RAPID SCAN IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPANSIVE CU FIELD CENTERED OVER THE MO VALLEY...WITH A
ZONE OF ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT/TOWERING CU NEAR OMA. WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A SLOWLY APPROACHING IMPULSE TO
THE WEST...CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE FURTHER AUGMENTED...AS
ADEQUATE HEATING AND RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS HAVE SUPPLIED
MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500-2000 J/KG. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAP
FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THE WEAKENING OF ANY CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION REMAINING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE THE BACKGROUND
WIND FIELD IS CHARACTERIZED BY FAIRLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF
MARGINAL STRENGTH...STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MAY PROVIDE AMPLE
VENTING TO FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. FURTHERMORE...THE LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IS NOW OCCURRING ACROSS FAR SERN NEB...POTENTIALLY IN A ZONE OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG ANVIL DEBRIS. THEREFORE...THERE CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS
AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER THE AREA...AS WELL AS A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO...AND WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.

..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   40669404 40069411 39459426 39329511 39499557 40159777
            40939782 42379726 42619644 42719472 42079400 40669404






000
ACUS11 KWNS 252019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252019
TXZ000-252115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE RIO GRAND VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...

VALID 252019Z - 252115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 210 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF
WW 210...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 25/21Z.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL SPREADING GRADUALLY
NEWD...AWAY FROM EXISTING PORTIONS OF WW 210 AND INTO ADJACENT WW
211 AND 212 COVERING CENTRAL AND ERN TX.  WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONGER
CELL COULD STILL DEVELOP ACROSS REMNANT SERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH S
OF WW 212...THIS RISK WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE
PARENT UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS NEWD PROGRESSION.  ATTM...ALL
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT WW WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED AT 25/21Z.

..GOSS.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29960066 30180053 30379962 30339920 29789892 29479839
            29229774 29059738 28769778 28669909 28240004 29150080
            29960066






000
ACUS11 KWNS 252019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252019
TXZ000-252115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE RIO GRAND VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...

VALID 252019Z - 252115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 210 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF
WW 210...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 25/21Z.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL SPREADING GRADUALLY
NEWD...AWAY FROM EXISTING PORTIONS OF WW 210 AND INTO ADJACENT WW
211 AND 212 COVERING CENTRAL AND ERN TX.  WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONGER
CELL COULD STILL DEVELOP ACROSS REMNANT SERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH S
OF WW 212...THIS RISK WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE
PARENT UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS NEWD PROGRESSION.  ATTM...ALL
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT WW WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED AT 25/21Z.

..GOSS.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29960066 30180053 30379962 30339920 29789892 29479839
            29229774 29059738 28769778 28669909 28240004 29150080
            29960066





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252019
TXZ000-252115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE RIO GRAND VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...

VALID 252019Z - 252115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 210 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF
WW 210...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 25/21Z.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL SPREADING GRADUALLY
NEWD...AWAY FROM EXISTING PORTIONS OF WW 210 AND INTO ADJACENT WW
211 AND 212 COVERING CENTRAL AND ERN TX.  WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONGER
CELL COULD STILL DEVELOP ACROSS REMNANT SERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH S
OF WW 212...THIS RISK WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE
PARENT UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS NEWD PROGRESSION.  ATTM...ALL
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT WW WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED AT 25/21Z.

..GOSS.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29960066 30180053 30379962 30339920 29789892 29479839
            29229774 29059738 28769778 28669909 28240004 29150080
            29960066





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252019
TXZ000-252115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0768
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE RIO GRAND VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...

VALID 252019Z - 252115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 210 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF
WW 210...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 25/21Z.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL SPREADING GRADUALLY
NEWD...AWAY FROM EXISTING PORTIONS OF WW 210 AND INTO ADJACENT WW
211 AND 212 COVERING CENTRAL AND ERN TX.  WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONGER
CELL COULD STILL DEVELOP ACROSS REMNANT SERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH S
OF WW 212...THIS RISK WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE
PARENT UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS NEWD PROGRESSION.  ATTM...ALL
INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT WW WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED AT 25/21Z.

..GOSS.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29960066 30180053 30379962 30339920 29789892 29479839
            29229774 29059738 28769778 28669909 28240004 29150080
            29960066





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251935
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-252030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0767
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK/SWRN AR/E TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251935Z - 252030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONTINUED EWD ADVANCE OF A WELL-ORGANIZED MCS ACROSS
CENTRAL TX AND MORE ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS EVOLVING AHEAD OF THE
LINE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL ACROSS THE MD AREA.  NEW TORNADO
WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TX -- INCLUDING A WELL-ORGANIZED BOWING MCS AND
INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE.
THE STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...AND ARE BEING AIDED BY A MID-LEVEL JET STREAM CROSSING
CENTRAL TX S OF A NWRN TX/SWRN OK VORT MAX.  WITH THE ENVIRONMENT E
OF THE CONVECTION/E OF THE ONGOING TORNADO WATCHES SUPPORTIVE OF
MAINTENANCE OF STORM INTENSITY...LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE STORMS TO
PERSIST/SPREAD EWD ACROSS SERN OK AND ERN TX APPEARS HIGH.  AS
SUCH...AREAS E OF THE EXISTING WATCHES -- I.E. ACROSS THE MD AREA --
WILL REQUIRE NEW WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...

LAT...LON   34699631 35179447 34539394 33009413 30739497 29329673
            29789749 31489623 34699631






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251935
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-252030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0767
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK/SWRN AR/E TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251935Z - 252030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONTINUED EWD ADVANCE OF A WELL-ORGANIZED MCS ACROSS
CENTRAL TX AND MORE ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS EVOLVING AHEAD OF THE
LINE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL ACROSS THE MD AREA.  NEW TORNADO
WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TX -- INCLUDING A WELL-ORGANIZED BOWING MCS AND
INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE.
THE STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...AND ARE BEING AIDED BY A MID-LEVEL JET STREAM CROSSING
CENTRAL TX S OF A NWRN TX/SWRN OK VORT MAX.  WITH THE ENVIRONMENT E
OF THE CONVECTION/E OF THE ONGOING TORNADO WATCHES SUPPORTIVE OF
MAINTENANCE OF STORM INTENSITY...LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE STORMS TO
PERSIST/SPREAD EWD ACROSS SERN OK AND ERN TX APPEARS HIGH.  AS
SUCH...AREAS E OF THE EXISTING WATCHES -- I.E. ACROSS THE MD AREA --
WILL REQUIRE NEW WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...

LAT...LON   34699631 35179447 34539394 33009413 30739497 29329673
            29789749 31489623 34699631





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251935
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-252030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0767
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK/SWRN AR/E TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251935Z - 252030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONTINUED EWD ADVANCE OF A WELL-ORGANIZED MCS ACROSS
CENTRAL TX AND MORE ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS EVOLVING AHEAD OF THE
LINE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG WITH HAIL ACROSS THE MD AREA.  NEW TORNADO
WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL TX -- INCLUDING A WELL-ORGANIZED BOWING MCS AND
INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE.
THE STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...AND ARE BEING AIDED BY A MID-LEVEL JET STREAM CROSSING
CENTRAL TX S OF A NWRN TX/SWRN OK VORT MAX.  WITH THE ENVIRONMENT E
OF THE CONVECTION/E OF THE ONGOING TORNADO WATCHES SUPPORTIVE OF
MAINTENANCE OF STORM INTENSITY...LIKELIHOOD FOR SEVERE STORMS TO
PERSIST/SPREAD EWD ACROSS SERN OK AND ERN TX APPEARS HIGH.  AS
SUCH...AREAS E OF THE EXISTING WATCHES -- I.E. ACROSS THE MD AREA --
WILL REQUIRE NEW WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...

LAT...LON   34699631 35179447 34539394 33009413 30739497 29329673
            29789749 31489623 34699631





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251933
KSZ000-252030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0766
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251933Z - 252030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ACROSS PARTS
OF SRN/CNTRL KS. COVERAGE OF THIS THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT/DEEPENING
LINE OF TOWERING CU S OF WICHITA...WITH ASSOCIATED TSTMS SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING. SFC OBS CONFIRM THAT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS
QUITE WEAK INVOF THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT
MAY BE INCREASING IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPSHEAR IMPULSE MOVING INTO
WRN OK. NEVERTHELESS...THE AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE
REGION...CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS AND COLD MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES. LATEST RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
ESTIMATES MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG ACROSS S-CNTRL KS.
DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES ARE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...YIELDING
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KT...WHICH MAY BE MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SUSTAINED TSTM GIVEN THE EXCEPTIONAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.

MORE UNCERTAIN IS TSTM INITIATION INTO N-CNTRL/NERN KS THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK WIND SHIFT WAS OBSERVED BETWEEN PRATT AND GREAT
BEND...BUT CINH IS PROBABLY LIMITING DEVELOPMENT HERE. HOWEVER...THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS
THIS AREA AS WELL. WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SUFFICIENT
STORM COVERAGE...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   39539760 39689641 39319583 38369598 37089620 37099661
            37069711 37049794 37219878 37919933 38989898 39539760






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251933
KSZ000-252030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0766
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251933Z - 252030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ACROSS PARTS
OF SRN/CNTRL KS. COVERAGE OF THIS THREAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT/DEEPENING
LINE OF TOWERING CU S OF WICHITA...WITH ASSOCIATED TSTMS SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING. SFC OBS CONFIRM THAT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS
QUITE WEAK INVOF THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT
MAY BE INCREASING IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPSHEAR IMPULSE MOVING INTO
WRN OK. NEVERTHELESS...THE AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE
REGION...CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS AND COLD MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES. LATEST RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
ESTIMATES MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG ACROSS S-CNTRL KS.
DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES ARE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...YIELDING
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KT...WHICH MAY BE MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SUSTAINED TSTM GIVEN THE EXCEPTIONAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.

MORE UNCERTAIN IS TSTM INITIATION INTO N-CNTRL/NERN KS THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK WIND SHIFT WAS OBSERVED BETWEEN PRATT AND GREAT
BEND...BUT CINH IS PROBABLY LIMITING DEVELOPMENT HERE. HOWEVER...THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS
THIS AREA AS WELL. WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SUFFICIENT
STORM COVERAGE...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   39539760 39689641 39319583 38369598 37089620 37099661
            37069711 37049794 37219878 37919933 38989898 39539760





000
ACUS01 KWNS 251933
SWODY1
SPC AC 251932

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL AND NE
TX...SRN OK...FAR NW LA AND SW AR...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND ARKLATEX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...MID MO VALLEY AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...MID MO VALLEY...MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION...

...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA.  DESTRUCTIVE OUTFLOW WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES AND HAIL ARE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.  MORE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.

THE FIRST CHANGE TO OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE IS TO TRIM PARTS OF
NORTHWEST AND NCNTRL TX FROM THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS. THE
AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF A LINEAR MCS MOVING ACROSS NRN
AND CNTRL TX. NO SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE LINEAR MCS
ACROSS WCNTRL TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SECOND CHANGE TO THE
OUTLOOK IS TO EXTEND THE 10 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY A BIT
FURTHER SOUTHWEST TO INCLUDE PARTS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY WHERE A
COUPLE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING. THE FINAL CHANGE TO THE
OUTLOOK IS TO REMOVE THE SIGNIFICANT HAIL PROBABILITY FROM CNTRL AND
NE TX.

..BROYLES.. 05/25/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED WEST OF THE MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST
BEING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND MID SOUTH.  THIS IMPULSE WILL BE
LOOSELY PHASED WITH A SLOWER-MOVING VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRACKING
ACROSS NEB.

AT THE SURFACE...MID-MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A COUPLE OF
MORE PROMINENT CYCLONES...ONE OVER WRN NEB AND THE OTHER OVER NWRN
TX.  THE FORMER WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD ACROSS NEB IN TANDEM WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...THE LATTER WILL DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX...LIKELY IN CONCERT WITH THE EVOLVING MCS OVER W-CNTRL TX.

--WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTIVE WIND EVENT FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT--

...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

A BOWING ECHO IS CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING OVER W-CNTRL TX IN ADVANCE
OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.  CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE
CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THIS MCS WILL EXPAND IN LONGITUDINAL
BREADTH AS IT ACCELERATES EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND
INTO AR/LA TONIGHT.

12Z ROAB DATA INDICATE THAT THE INFLOW AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND WHEN COUPLED WITH RATHER
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT /SEE 12Z DRT SOUNDING/...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE
OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALIGN WITH A BELT OF
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW IN THE 700-500-MB LAYER TO SUPPORT FURTHER
FORWARD PROPAGATION/ACCELERATION OF THE BOW WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA.
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BOTH WITH
MESOVORTICES/MESOCYCLONES EMBEDDED IN THE MCS...AS WELL AS WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS WHICH MAY FORM DOWNSTREAM FROM IT.

EXPECT THE THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR/LA.


...CNTRL PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE EWD-MOVING NEB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM WILL EFFECTIVELY DEEPEN CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM SUCH THAT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF NEB INTO PARTS OF IA/MN/WI.
OTHER STORMS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AHEAD OF
THE WEAK DRYLINE/FRONT IN KS AS THE REGION BECOMES INFLUENCED BY THE
MID-LEVEL WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS.

THE STRONGEST AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM
CNTRL/ERN KS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND A RIBBON OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES YIELD MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500-2500+ J/KG.  AND WHILE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
MODES CAPABLE OF MAINLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE MID MO VALLEY...AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ
ENHANCES LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251910
TXZ000-252045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0765
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...

VALID 251910Z - 252045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 210 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...DMGG WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL
PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF TORNADO WATCH 210.
AREAS TO THE EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 210 ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL
CLUSTER ACROSS BURNET COUNTY MOVING INTO TRAVIS/WILLIAMSON COUNTIES
TX...UNDERGOING SEVERAL INTERACTIONS WITH ANCILLARY CELL DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL/TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE INFLUX OF RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LCLS...AND 100-200 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM
SRH...GIVEN THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE. WEAKER
CONVECTION DEVELOPING VIA LOW-LEVEL WAA ALSO HAS DISPLAYED
INTERMITTENT/BRIEF ROTATION.

TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AS PRIMARY SVR THREAT APPROACHES ERN EDGE
OF TORNADO WATCH 210 FOR A POSSIBLE NEW WW INTO SOUTHEAST TX.
CONSOLIDATION WITH SRN EDGE OF QLCS ACROSS CNTRL TX IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR AN INCREASING DMGG
WIND THREAT.

..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29569529 29249660 28929743 28989888 30499926 30889894
            30889684 30899651 31209586 31119552 30469543 29569529





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251910
TXZ000-252045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0765
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...

VALID 251910Z - 252045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 210 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...DMGG WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL
PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF TORNADO WATCH 210.
AREAS TO THE EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 210 ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL
CLUSTER ACROSS BURNET COUNTY MOVING INTO TRAVIS/WILLIAMSON COUNTIES
TX...UNDERGOING SEVERAL INTERACTIONS WITH ANCILLARY CELL DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL/TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE INFLUX OF RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LCLS...AND 100-200 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM
SRH...GIVEN THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE. WEAKER
CONVECTION DEVELOPING VIA LOW-LEVEL WAA ALSO HAS DISPLAYED
INTERMITTENT/BRIEF ROTATION.

TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AS PRIMARY SVR THREAT APPROACHES ERN EDGE
OF TORNADO WATCH 210 FOR A POSSIBLE NEW WW INTO SOUTHEAST TX.
CONSOLIDATION WITH SRN EDGE OF QLCS ACROSS CNTRL TX IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR AN INCREASING DMGG
WIND THREAT.

..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29569529 29249660 28929743 28989888 30499926 30889894
            30889684 30899651 31209586 31119552 30469543 29569529





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251910
TXZ000-252045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0765
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...

VALID 251910Z - 252045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 210 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...DMGG WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL
PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF TORNADO WATCH 210.
AREAS TO THE EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 210 ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED FOR
A POSSIBLE WATCH LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL
CLUSTER ACROSS BURNET COUNTY MOVING INTO TRAVIS/WILLIAMSON COUNTIES
TX...UNDERGOING SEVERAL INTERACTIONS WITH ANCILLARY CELL DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL/TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE INFLUX OF RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...LOW LCLS...AND 100-200 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM
SRH...GIVEN THE ABILITY FOR STORMS TO REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE. WEAKER
CONVECTION DEVELOPING VIA LOW-LEVEL WAA ALSO HAS DISPLAYED
INTERMITTENT/BRIEF ROTATION.

TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AS PRIMARY SVR THREAT APPROACHES ERN EDGE
OF TORNADO WATCH 210 FOR A POSSIBLE NEW WW INTO SOUTHEAST TX.
CONSOLIDATION WITH SRN EDGE OF QLCS ACROSS CNTRL TX IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR AN INCREASING DMGG
WIND THREAT.

..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29569529 29249660 28929743 28989888 30499926 30889894
            30889684 30899651 31209586 31119552 30469543 29569529






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251854
TXZ000-OKZ000-252100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0764
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN OK/CENTRAL AND NRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 211...

VALID 251854Z - 252100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 211 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK CONTINUES ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADO/HAIL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WW AREA...AS THE
WELL-ORGANIZED BOWING MCS SHIFTS ENEWD.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED BOW ECHO/MCS
MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL TX ATTM...WITH NRN PORTIONS OF
THE LINE APPROACHING SWRN/S CENTRAL OK.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH AN AXIS OF MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WHICH IS
FUELING INTENSE CONVECTION -- AND IS BEING AIDED BY ENHANCED WSWLY
REAR INFLOW AT BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESO/CONVECTIVE SCALES.

IN ADDITION...MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF SRN
PORTIONS OF THE LINE INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY REGION...WHERE RECENT
TORNADO REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  OVERALL...THE MOIST/UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE KINEMATICS SUGGEST
CONTINUED/RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADO/HAIL POTENTIAL.

..GOSS.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   33449785 34159865 34709844 35279816 35449680 32689611
            30929630 30559704 30919841 30599953 32049848 33449785





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251854
TXZ000-OKZ000-252100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0764
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN OK/CENTRAL AND NRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 211...

VALID 251854Z - 252100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 211 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK CONTINUES ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADO/HAIL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WW AREA...AS THE
WELL-ORGANIZED BOWING MCS SHIFTS ENEWD.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED BOW ECHO/MCS
MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL TX ATTM...WITH NRN PORTIONS OF
THE LINE APPROACHING SWRN/S CENTRAL OK.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH AN AXIS OF MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WHICH IS
FUELING INTENSE CONVECTION -- AND IS BEING AIDED BY ENHANCED WSWLY
REAR INFLOW AT BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESO/CONVECTIVE SCALES.

IN ADDITION...MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF SRN
PORTIONS OF THE LINE INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY REGION...WHERE RECENT
TORNADO REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  OVERALL...THE MOIST/UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE KINEMATICS SUGGEST
CONTINUED/RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADO/HAIL POTENTIAL.

..GOSS.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   33449785 34159865 34709844 35279816 35449680 32689611
            30929630 30559704 30919841 30599953 32049848 33449785





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251854
TXZ000-OKZ000-252100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0764
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0154 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN OK/CENTRAL AND NRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 211...

VALID 251854Z - 252100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 211 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK CONTINUES ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADO/HAIL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WW AREA...AS THE
WELL-ORGANIZED BOWING MCS SHIFTS ENEWD.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED BOW ECHO/MCS
MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL TX ATTM...WITH NRN PORTIONS OF
THE LINE APPROACHING SWRN/S CENTRAL OK.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
THROUGH AN AXIS OF MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WHICH IS
FUELING INTENSE CONVECTION -- AND IS BEING AIDED BY ENHANCED WSWLY
REAR INFLOW AT BOTH SYNOPTIC AND MESO/CONVECTIVE SCALES.

IN ADDITION...MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF SRN
PORTIONS OF THE LINE INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY REGION...WHERE RECENT
TORNADO REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.  OVERALL...THE MOIST/UNSTABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE KINEMATICS SUGGEST
CONTINUED/RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADO/HAIL POTENTIAL.

..GOSS.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   33449785 34159865 34709844 35279816 35449680 32689611
            30929630 30559704 30919841 30599953 32049848 33449785






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251722
OKZ000-251845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0763
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251722Z - 251845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE/BRIEF TORNADO RISK TO INCREASE ACROSS OK OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE NRN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL/NRN TX BOWING
MCS SHIFTS NNEWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER.  NEW WW OR LOCAL EXTENSION OF
WW 211 NWD WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A MESOLOW/COMMA HEAD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BOWING MCS AFFECTING TX TO BE MOVING QUICKLY NNEWD ACROSS
THE KNOX/BAYLOR CO TX VICINITY...TOWARD SWRN OK.  THE MAIN THRUST OF
THIS BOW -- AND THUS MOST SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGING WIND RISK -- SHOULD
SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS N TX AND INTO SERN OK WITH TIME.  HOWEVER...AN
INCREASINGLY WNW-ESE PORTION OF THE BOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE...N OF
THE APEX AS THE MAIN SURGE OF THE BOW SHIFTS ENEWD FASTER THAN THE
COMMA HEAD PROGRESSES INTO OK.  AS THIS PORTION OF THE MCS SPREADS
INTO OK...SEVERE RISK WILL INCREASE.  IN ADDITION...A ROUGHLY N-S
WARM ADVECTION WING OF STORMS IS DEVELOPING FROM THE COMMA HEAD NWD
INTO THE JACKSON/KIOWA/TILLMAN CO VICINITY OF OK ATTM...WITH
ASSOCIATED/LOCAL SEVERE RISK IN THE NEARER TERM.

OVERALL...WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER OK CHARACTERIZED
BY A VERY MOIST/WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH A STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE PLUME...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXIST FOR STORMS MOVING
INTO/ACROSS OK TO REMAIN VIGOROUS/WELL-ORGANIZED.  WHILE PRIMARY
RISK WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL...BRIEF/LOCAL
TORNADO RISK IS ALSO LIKELY TO EVOLVE -- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE
NNEWD-MOVING COMMA HEAD.  GIVEN THIS EVOLUTION...EXPECT WITH NEW WW
ISSUANCE N OF EXISTING TORNADO WATCH 211...OR LOCAL EXTENSION OF THE
EXISTING WATCH PRIOR TO 19Z.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   34959936 35909948 36909909 36959642 35799536 34909591
            34879782 34959936





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251722
OKZ000-251845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0763
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251722Z - 251845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE/BRIEF TORNADO RISK TO INCREASE ACROSS OK OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE NRN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL/NRN TX BOWING
MCS SHIFTS NNEWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER.  NEW WW OR LOCAL EXTENSION OF
WW 211 NWD WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A MESOLOW/COMMA HEAD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BOWING MCS AFFECTING TX TO BE MOVING QUICKLY NNEWD ACROSS
THE KNOX/BAYLOR CO TX VICINITY...TOWARD SWRN OK.  THE MAIN THRUST OF
THIS BOW -- AND THUS MOST SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGING WIND RISK -- SHOULD
SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS N TX AND INTO SERN OK WITH TIME.  HOWEVER...AN
INCREASINGLY WNW-ESE PORTION OF THE BOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE...N OF
THE APEX AS THE MAIN SURGE OF THE BOW SHIFTS ENEWD FASTER THAN THE
COMMA HEAD PROGRESSES INTO OK.  AS THIS PORTION OF THE MCS SPREADS
INTO OK...SEVERE RISK WILL INCREASE.  IN ADDITION...A ROUGHLY N-S
WARM ADVECTION WING OF STORMS IS DEVELOPING FROM THE COMMA HEAD NWD
INTO THE JACKSON/KIOWA/TILLMAN CO VICINITY OF OK ATTM...WITH
ASSOCIATED/LOCAL SEVERE RISK IN THE NEARER TERM.

OVERALL...WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER OK CHARACTERIZED
BY A VERY MOIST/WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH A STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE PLUME...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXIST FOR STORMS MOVING
INTO/ACROSS OK TO REMAIN VIGOROUS/WELL-ORGANIZED.  WHILE PRIMARY
RISK WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL...BRIEF/LOCAL
TORNADO RISK IS ALSO LIKELY TO EVOLVE -- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE
NNEWD-MOVING COMMA HEAD.  GIVEN THIS EVOLUTION...EXPECT WITH NEW WW
ISSUANCE N OF EXISTING TORNADO WATCH 211...OR LOCAL EXTENSION OF THE
EXISTING WATCH PRIOR TO 19Z.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   34959936 35909948 36909909 36959642 35799536 34909591
            34879782 34959936





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251722
OKZ000-251845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0763
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251722Z - 251845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE/BRIEF TORNADO RISK TO INCREASE ACROSS OK OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE NRN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL/NRN TX BOWING
MCS SHIFTS NNEWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER.  NEW WW OR LOCAL EXTENSION OF
WW 211 NWD WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A MESOLOW/COMMA HEAD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BOWING MCS AFFECTING TX TO BE MOVING QUICKLY NNEWD ACROSS
THE KNOX/BAYLOR CO TX VICINITY...TOWARD SWRN OK.  THE MAIN THRUST OF
THIS BOW -- AND THUS MOST SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGING WIND RISK -- SHOULD
SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS N TX AND INTO SERN OK WITH TIME.  HOWEVER...AN
INCREASINGLY WNW-ESE PORTION OF THE BOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE...N OF
THE APEX AS THE MAIN SURGE OF THE BOW SHIFTS ENEWD FASTER THAN THE
COMMA HEAD PROGRESSES INTO OK.  AS THIS PORTION OF THE MCS SPREADS
INTO OK...SEVERE RISK WILL INCREASE.  IN ADDITION...A ROUGHLY N-S
WARM ADVECTION WING OF STORMS IS DEVELOPING FROM THE COMMA HEAD NWD
INTO THE JACKSON/KIOWA/TILLMAN CO VICINITY OF OK ATTM...WITH
ASSOCIATED/LOCAL SEVERE RISK IN THE NEARER TERM.

OVERALL...WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER OK CHARACTERIZED
BY A VERY MOIST/WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH A STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE PLUME...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXIST FOR STORMS MOVING
INTO/ACROSS OK TO REMAIN VIGOROUS/WELL-ORGANIZED.  WHILE PRIMARY
RISK WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL...BRIEF/LOCAL
TORNADO RISK IS ALSO LIKELY TO EVOLVE -- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE
NNEWD-MOVING COMMA HEAD.  GIVEN THIS EVOLUTION...EXPECT WITH NEW WW
ISSUANCE N OF EXISTING TORNADO WATCH 211...OR LOCAL EXTENSION OF THE
EXISTING WATCH PRIOR TO 19Z.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   34959936 35909948 36909909 36959642 35799536 34909591
            34879782 34959936






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251722
OKZ000-251845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0763
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251722Z - 251845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE/BRIEF TORNADO RISK TO INCREASE ACROSS OK OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE NRN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL/NRN TX BOWING
MCS SHIFTS NNEWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER.  NEW WW OR LOCAL EXTENSION OF
WW 211 NWD WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A MESOLOW/COMMA HEAD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BOWING MCS AFFECTING TX TO BE MOVING QUICKLY NNEWD ACROSS
THE KNOX/BAYLOR CO TX VICINITY...TOWARD SWRN OK.  THE MAIN THRUST OF
THIS BOW -- AND THUS MOST SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGING WIND RISK -- SHOULD
SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS N TX AND INTO SERN OK WITH TIME.  HOWEVER...AN
INCREASINGLY WNW-ESE PORTION OF THE BOW IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE...N OF
THE APEX AS THE MAIN SURGE OF THE BOW SHIFTS ENEWD FASTER THAN THE
COMMA HEAD PROGRESSES INTO OK.  AS THIS PORTION OF THE MCS SPREADS
INTO OK...SEVERE RISK WILL INCREASE.  IN ADDITION...A ROUGHLY N-S
WARM ADVECTION WING OF STORMS IS DEVELOPING FROM THE COMMA HEAD NWD
INTO THE JACKSON/KIOWA/TILLMAN CO VICINITY OF OK ATTM...WITH
ASSOCIATED/LOCAL SEVERE RISK IN THE NEARER TERM.

OVERALL...WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER OK CHARACTERIZED
BY A VERY MOIST/WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH A STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE PLUME...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXIST FOR STORMS MOVING
INTO/ACROSS OK TO REMAIN VIGOROUS/WELL-ORGANIZED.  WHILE PRIMARY
RISK WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL...BRIEF/LOCAL
TORNADO RISK IS ALSO LIKELY TO EVOLVE -- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE
NNEWD-MOVING COMMA HEAD.  GIVEN THIS EVOLUTION...EXPECT WITH NEW WW
ISSUANCE N OF EXISTING TORNADO WATCH 211...OR LOCAL EXTENSION OF THE
EXISTING WATCH PRIOR TO 19Z.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   34959936 35909948 36909909 36959642 35799536 34909591
            34879782 34959936





000
ACUS02 KWNS 251721
SWODY2
SPC AC 251720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...ARKLATEX...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...CNTRL
GULF COAST STATES...TN VALLEY...OH VALLEY...SRN AND CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. OTHER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES.

...SRN PLAINS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. AT LOW-LEVELS...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF TX EXTENDING NWD INTO OK WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S F. A DRYLINE SHOULD SHARPEN FROM WRN OK SSWWD ACROSS
WEST TX WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
THE DRYLINE BY AFTERNOON. DUE TO LIMITED CAPPING...SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD MARKEDLY
INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEL FORECASTS SUGGESTING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE FROM WCNTRL OK SSWWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX
INTO PARTS OF THE WRN TX HILL COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZING AND MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/WED ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM
OKLAHOMA CITY SWWD TO WICHITA FALLS SHOW IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS
WITH MLCAPE OF 4000 TO 5000 J/KG AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM. THE WIND PROFILE SHOWS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN
THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR ABOVE 500 MB. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AND
POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL IF CONVECTION CAN REMAIN
DISCRETE. HOWEVER...A BOW STRUCTURED LINEAR MCS COULD ALSO DEVELOP
WHICH WOULD FAVOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY...A COUPLE TORNADOES COULD STILL OCCUR WITH
SUPERCELLS OR WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS.

...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES/TN AND OH VALLEYS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID-LEVELS IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE OH
AND TN VALLEYS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY. AN MCS COULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY. TO THE EAST OF THE MORNING
CONVECTION...A MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD ENABLE MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE INSTABILITY AXIS
FROM WRN AL NNEWD INTO ECNTRL TN AND CNTRL KY WHERE SCATTERED STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FROM BIRMINGHAM AL NNEWD ACROSS ECNTRL TN
INTO CNTRL KY SHOW MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES AND SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS
ENVIRONMENT COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS
WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH LINE SEGMENTS THAT CAN DEVELOP BOWING
STRUCTURES.

..BROYLES.. 05/25/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 251721
SWODY2
SPC AC 251720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...ARKLATEX...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...CNTRL
GULF COAST STATES...TN VALLEY...OH VALLEY...SRN AND CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. OTHER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES.

...SRN PLAINS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. AT LOW-LEVELS...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF TX EXTENDING NWD INTO OK WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S F. A DRYLINE SHOULD SHARPEN FROM WRN OK SSWWD ACROSS
WEST TX WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
THE DRYLINE BY AFTERNOON. DUE TO LIMITED CAPPING...SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD MARKEDLY
INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEL FORECASTS SUGGESTING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE FROM WCNTRL OK SSWWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX
INTO PARTS OF THE WRN TX HILL COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZING AND MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/WED ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM
OKLAHOMA CITY SWWD TO WICHITA FALLS SHOW IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS
WITH MLCAPE OF 4000 TO 5000 J/KG AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM. THE WIND PROFILE SHOWS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN
THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR ABOVE 500 MB. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AND
POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL IF CONVECTION CAN REMAIN
DISCRETE. HOWEVER...A BOW STRUCTURED LINEAR MCS COULD ALSO DEVELOP
WHICH WOULD FAVOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY...A COUPLE TORNADOES COULD STILL OCCUR WITH
SUPERCELLS OR WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS.

...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES/TN AND OH VALLEYS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID-LEVELS IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE OH
AND TN VALLEYS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY. AN MCS COULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY. TO THE EAST OF THE MORNING
CONVECTION...A MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD ENABLE MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE INSTABILITY AXIS
FROM WRN AL NNEWD INTO ECNTRL TN AND CNTRL KY WHERE SCATTERED STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FROM BIRMINGHAM AL NNEWD ACROSS ECNTRL TN
INTO CNTRL KY SHOW MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES AND SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS
ENVIRONMENT COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS
WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH LINE SEGMENTS THAT CAN DEVELOP BOWING
STRUCTURES.

..BROYLES.. 05/25/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 251721
SWODY2
SPC AC 251720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...ARKLATEX...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...CNTRL
GULF COAST STATES...TN VALLEY...OH VALLEY...SRN AND CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. OTHER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES.

...SRN PLAINS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. AT LOW-LEVELS...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF TX EXTENDING NWD INTO OK WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S F. A DRYLINE SHOULD SHARPEN FROM WRN OK SSWWD ACROSS
WEST TX WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
THE DRYLINE BY AFTERNOON. DUE TO LIMITED CAPPING...SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD MARKEDLY
INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEL FORECASTS SUGGESTING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE FROM WCNTRL OK SSWWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX
INTO PARTS OF THE WRN TX HILL COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZING AND MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/WED ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM
OKLAHOMA CITY SWWD TO WICHITA FALLS SHOW IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS
WITH MLCAPE OF 4000 TO 5000 J/KG AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM. THE WIND PROFILE SHOWS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN
THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR ABOVE 500 MB. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AND
POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL IF CONVECTION CAN REMAIN
DISCRETE. HOWEVER...A BOW STRUCTURED LINEAR MCS COULD ALSO DEVELOP
WHICH WOULD FAVOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY...A COUPLE TORNADOES COULD STILL OCCUR WITH
SUPERCELLS OR WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS.

...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES/TN AND OH VALLEYS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID-LEVELS IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE OH
AND TN VALLEYS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY. AN MCS COULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY. TO THE EAST OF THE MORNING
CONVECTION...A MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD ENABLE MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE INSTABILITY AXIS
FROM WRN AL NNEWD INTO ECNTRL TN AND CNTRL KY WHERE SCATTERED STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FROM BIRMINGHAM AL NNEWD ACROSS ECNTRL TN
INTO CNTRL KY SHOW MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES AND SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS
ENVIRONMENT COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS
WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH LINE SEGMENTS THAT CAN DEVELOP BOWING
STRUCTURES.

..BROYLES.. 05/25/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251638
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251637
TXZ000-251830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0762
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY REGIONS OF TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...

VALID 251637Z - 251830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 210 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK CONTINUES ACROSS THE WW AREA.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE SHIFTING NEWD OUT OF WW 210 INTO ONGOING
WATCHES TO THE N.  MEANWHILE...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING TO
THE S OF THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS -- ACROSS THE GILLESPIE/KERR/BANDERA
COUNTY VICINITY.  WITH A VERY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER IN PLACE AND SLY SURFACE WINDS BENEATH A SWLY MID-LEVEL JET
SPREADING ACROSS THIS AREA PER WV IMAGERY...RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
-- INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL -- CONTINUES ACROSS THIS
REGION.

..GOSS.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   28560067 30040039 31129850 30669699 30129644 29249663
            28649768 28619927 28219963 28240025 28560067





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251638
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251637
TXZ000-251830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0762
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY REGIONS OF TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...

VALID 251637Z - 251830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 210 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK CONTINUES ACROSS THE WW AREA.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE SHIFTING NEWD OUT OF WW 210 INTO ONGOING
WATCHES TO THE N.  MEANWHILE...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING TO
THE S OF THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS -- ACROSS THE GILLESPIE/KERR/BANDERA
COUNTY VICINITY.  WITH A VERY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER IN PLACE AND SLY SURFACE WINDS BENEATH A SWLY MID-LEVEL JET
SPREADING ACROSS THIS AREA PER WV IMAGERY...RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
-- INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL -- CONTINUES ACROSS THIS
REGION.

..GOSS.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   28560067 30040039 31129850 30669699 30129644 29249663
            28649768 28619927 28219963 28240025 28560067





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251638
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251637
TXZ000-251830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0762
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND HILL COUNTRY REGIONS OF TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...

VALID 251637Z - 251830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 210 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK CONTINUES ACROSS THE WW AREA.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE SHIFTING NEWD OUT OF WW 210 INTO ONGOING
WATCHES TO THE N.  MEANWHILE...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING TO
THE S OF THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS -- ACROSS THE GILLESPIE/KERR/BANDERA
COUNTY VICINITY.  WITH A VERY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER IN PLACE AND SLY SURFACE WINDS BENEATH A SWLY MID-LEVEL JET
SPREADING ACROSS THIS AREA PER WV IMAGERY...RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
-- INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL -- CONTINUES ACROSS THIS
REGION.

..GOSS.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   28560067 30040039 31129850 30669699 30129644 29249663
            28649768 28619927 28219963 28240025 28560067






000
ACUS01 KWNS 251632
SWODY1
SPC AC 251630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS N-CNTRL AND NERN
TX...S-CNTRL AND SE OK...SWRN AR AND EXTREME NWRN LA...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PART OF THE SRN PLAINS
INTO AR/LA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS INTO
LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO SRN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA.  DESTRUCTIVE OUTFLOW WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES...AND HAIL
ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.  MORE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI
VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED WEST OF THE MS VALLEY
THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST
BEING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND MID SOUTH.  THIS IMPULSE WILL BE
LOOSELY PHASED WITH A SLOWER-MOVING VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRACKING
ACROSS NEB.

AT THE SURFACE...MID-MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A COUPLE OF
MORE PROMINENT CYCLONES...ONE OVER WRN NEB AND THE OTHER OVER NWRN
TX.  THE FORMER WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY EWD ACROSS NEB IN TANDEM WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...THE LATTER WILL DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX...LIKELY IN CONCERT WITH THE EVOLVING MCS OVER W-CNTRL TX.

--WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTIVE WIND EVENT FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT--

...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

A BOWING ECHO IS CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING OVER W-CNTRL TX IN ADVANCE
OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.  CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE
CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THIS MCS WILL EXPAND IN LONGITUDINAL
BREADTH AS IT ACCELERATES EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND
INTO AR/LA TONIGHT.

12Z ROAB DATA INDICATE THAT THE INFLOW AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND WHEN COUPLED WITH RATHER
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT /SEE 12Z DRT SOUNDING/...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE
OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALIGN WITH A BELT OF
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW IN THE 700-500-MB LAYER TO SUPPORT FURTHER
FORWARD PROPAGATION/ACCELERATION OF THE BOW WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA.
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BOTH WITH
MESOVORTICES/MESOCYCLONES EMBEDDED IN THE MCS...AS WELL AS WITH ANY
SUPERCELLS WHICH MAY FORM DOWNSTREAM FROM IT.

EXPECT THE THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR/LA.


...CNTRL PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE EWD-MOVING NEB VORTICITY
MAXIMUM WILL EFFECTIVELY DEEPEN CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM SUCH THAT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF NEB INTO PARTS OF IA/MN/WI.
OTHER STORMS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AHEAD OF
THE WEAK DRYLINE/FRONT IN KS AS THE REGION BECOMES INFLUENCED BY THE
MID-LEVEL WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS.

THE STRONGEST AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM
CNTRL/ERN KS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND A RIBBON OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES YIELD MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500-2500+ J/KG.  AND WHILE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT...GIVEN THE INSTABILITY...TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
MODES CAPABLE OF MAINLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE MID MO VALLEY...AS A STRENGTHENING LLJ
ENHANCES LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 05/25/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251513
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251513
TXZ000-OKZ000-251715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY OF TX EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NRN TX/SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...

VALID 251513Z - 251715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS AND CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY REGIONS OF TX.
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK IS PROGGED TO INCREASE WITH TIME ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES.  NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO E AND NE OF THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION...A BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN THIS
MORNING...AND IS MOVING EWD/ENEWD TOWARD CENTRAL AND NRN TX.  EARLY
HEATING ACROSS SRN OK AND N TX E OF THE CIRRUS PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CONVECTION AND N OF THE HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SEPARATE/EDWARDS PLATEAU CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS ALLOWED THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- AIDED BY VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WHICH HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION PER MORNING
SRN PLAINS RAOBS.

ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
PROGRESSION/INTENSIFICATION OF THIS ALREADY-ORGANIZED MCS...WITH A
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY
ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS THE MD AREA.

LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS A BROAD MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTING ENEWD INTO
CENTRAL TX...AND THIS STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WITH TIME WILL
FURTHER AID IN INCREASING THE SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...VERY MOIST/SELY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO SWLY THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW KM
WILL ALSO SUPPORT ROTATION WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS -- BOTH WITHIN THE
LINE AND WITH ANY CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
BAND.  THUS -- SOME TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THESE STORMS.

AS THE APEX OF THE BOW APPROACHES THE ERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT WW
OVER THE NEXT HOUR...A NEW WW -- LIKELY A TORNADO WATCH -- WILL BE
REQUIRED...AND WILL COVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN TX AND INTO SRN
OK.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...
MAF...

LAT...LON   34989626 34299548 32599545 31619542 30929635 30739700
            30989890 30490081 31360157 32020066 32630039 33320077
            34869867 34989626





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251513
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251513
TXZ000-OKZ000-251715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY OF TX EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NRN TX/SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...

VALID 251513Z - 251715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS AND CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY REGIONS OF TX.
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK IS PROGGED TO INCREASE WITH TIME ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES.  NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO E AND NE OF THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION...A BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN THIS
MORNING...AND IS MOVING EWD/ENEWD TOWARD CENTRAL AND NRN TX.  EARLY
HEATING ACROSS SRN OK AND N TX E OF THE CIRRUS PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CONVECTION AND N OF THE HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SEPARATE/EDWARDS PLATEAU CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS ALLOWED THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- AIDED BY VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WHICH HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION PER MORNING
SRN PLAINS RAOBS.

ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
PROGRESSION/INTENSIFICATION OF THIS ALREADY-ORGANIZED MCS...WITH A
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY
ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS THE MD AREA.

LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS A BROAD MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTING ENEWD INTO
CENTRAL TX...AND THIS STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WITH TIME WILL
FURTHER AID IN INCREASING THE SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...VERY MOIST/SELY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO SWLY THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW KM
WILL ALSO SUPPORT ROTATION WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS -- BOTH WITHIN THE
LINE AND WITH ANY CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
BAND.  THUS -- SOME TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THESE STORMS.

AS THE APEX OF THE BOW APPROACHES THE ERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT WW
OVER THE NEXT HOUR...A NEW WW -- LIKELY A TORNADO WATCH -- WILL BE
REQUIRED...AND WILL COVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN TX AND INTO SRN
OK.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...
MAF...

LAT...LON   34989626 34299548 32599545 31619542 30929635 30739700
            30989890 30490081 31360157 32020066 32630039 33320077
            34869867 34989626






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251513
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251513
TXZ000-OKZ000-251715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY OF TX EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NRN TX/SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...

VALID 251513Z - 251715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS AND CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY REGIONS OF TX.
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK IS PROGGED TO INCREASE WITH TIME ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES.  NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO E AND NE OF THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION...A BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN THIS
MORNING...AND IS MOVING EWD/ENEWD TOWARD CENTRAL AND NRN TX.  EARLY
HEATING ACROSS SRN OK AND N TX E OF THE CIRRUS PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CONVECTION AND N OF THE HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SEPARATE/EDWARDS PLATEAU CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS ALLOWED THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- AIDED BY VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WHICH HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION PER MORNING
SRN PLAINS RAOBS.

ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
PROGRESSION/INTENSIFICATION OF THIS ALREADY-ORGANIZED MCS...WITH A
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY
ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS THE MD AREA.

LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS A BROAD MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTING ENEWD INTO
CENTRAL TX...AND THIS STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WITH TIME WILL
FURTHER AID IN INCREASING THE SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...VERY MOIST/SELY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO SWLY THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW KM
WILL ALSO SUPPORT ROTATION WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS -- BOTH WITHIN THE
LINE AND WITH ANY CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
BAND.  THUS -- SOME TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THESE STORMS.

AS THE APEX OF THE BOW APPROACHES THE ERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT WW
OVER THE NEXT HOUR...A NEW WW -- LIKELY A TORNADO WATCH -- WILL BE
REQUIRED...AND WILL COVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN TX AND INTO SRN
OK.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...
MAF...

LAT...LON   34989626 34299548 32599545 31619542 30929635 30739700
            30989890 30490081 31360157 32020066 32630039 33320077
            34869867 34989626






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251513
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251513
TXZ000-OKZ000-251715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY OF TX EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NRN TX/SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...

VALID 251513Z - 251715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS AND CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY REGIONS OF TX.
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK IS PROGGED TO INCREASE WITH TIME ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES.  NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO E AND NE OF THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION...A BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN THIS
MORNING...AND IS MOVING EWD/ENEWD TOWARD CENTRAL AND NRN TX.  EARLY
HEATING ACROSS SRN OK AND N TX E OF THE CIRRUS PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CONVECTION AND N OF THE HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SEPARATE/EDWARDS PLATEAU CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS ALLOWED THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- AIDED BY VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WHICH HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION PER MORNING
SRN PLAINS RAOBS.

ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
PROGRESSION/INTENSIFICATION OF THIS ALREADY-ORGANIZED MCS...WITH A
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY
ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS THE MD AREA.

LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS A BROAD MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTING ENEWD INTO
CENTRAL TX...AND THIS STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WITH TIME WILL
FURTHER AID IN INCREASING THE SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...VERY MOIST/SELY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO SWLY THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW KM
WILL ALSO SUPPORT ROTATION WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS -- BOTH WITHIN THE
LINE AND WITH ANY CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
BAND.  THUS -- SOME TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THESE STORMS.

AS THE APEX OF THE BOW APPROACHES THE ERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT WW
OVER THE NEXT HOUR...A NEW WW -- LIKELY A TORNADO WATCH -- WILL BE
REQUIRED...AND WILL COVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN TX AND INTO SRN
OK.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...
MAF...

LAT...LON   34989626 34299548 32599545 31619542 30929635 30739700
            30989890 30490081 31360157 32020066 32630039 33320077
            34869867 34989626





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251513
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251513
TXZ000-OKZ000-251715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY OF TX EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NRN TX/SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...

VALID 251513Z - 251715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS AND CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY REGIONS OF TX.
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK IS PROGGED TO INCREASE WITH TIME ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES.  NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO E AND NE OF THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION...A BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN THIS
MORNING...AND IS MOVING EWD/ENEWD TOWARD CENTRAL AND NRN TX.  EARLY
HEATING ACROSS SRN OK AND N TX E OF THE CIRRUS PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CONVECTION AND N OF THE HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SEPARATE/EDWARDS PLATEAU CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS ALLOWED THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- AIDED BY VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WHICH HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION PER MORNING
SRN PLAINS RAOBS.

ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
PROGRESSION/INTENSIFICATION OF THIS ALREADY-ORGANIZED MCS...WITH A
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY
ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS THE MD AREA.

LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS A BROAD MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTING ENEWD INTO
CENTRAL TX...AND THIS STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WITH TIME WILL
FURTHER AID IN INCREASING THE SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...VERY MOIST/SELY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO SWLY THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW KM
WILL ALSO SUPPORT ROTATION WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS -- BOTH WITHIN THE
LINE AND WITH ANY CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
BAND.  THUS -- SOME TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THESE STORMS.

AS THE APEX OF THE BOW APPROACHES THE ERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT WW
OVER THE NEXT HOUR...A NEW WW -- LIKELY A TORNADO WATCH -- WILL BE
REQUIRED...AND WILL COVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN TX AND INTO SRN
OK.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...
MAF...

LAT...LON   34989626 34299548 32599545 31619542 30929635 30739700
            30989890 30490081 31360157 32020066 32630039 33320077
            34869867 34989626





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251513
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251513
TXZ000-OKZ000-251715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0761
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY OF TX EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NRN TX/SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...

VALID 251513Z - 251715Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS AND CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY REGIONS OF TX.
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK IS PROGGED TO INCREASE WITH TIME ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES.  NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO E AND NE OF THIS DEVELOPING
SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION...A BOWING MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN THIS
MORNING...AND IS MOVING EWD/ENEWD TOWARD CENTRAL AND NRN TX.  EARLY
HEATING ACROSS SRN OK AND N TX E OF THE CIRRUS PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CONVECTION AND N OF THE HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SEPARATE/EDWARDS PLATEAU CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS ALLOWED THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE -- AIDED BY VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WHICH HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION PER MORNING
SRN PLAINS RAOBS.

ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
PROGRESSION/INTENSIFICATION OF THIS ALREADY-ORGANIZED MCS...WITH A
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY
ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS THE MD AREA.

LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS A BROAD MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTING ENEWD INTO
CENTRAL TX...AND THIS STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WITH TIME WILL
FURTHER AID IN INCREASING THE SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...VERY MOIST/SELY BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO SWLY THROUGH THE LOWEST FEW KM
WILL ALSO SUPPORT ROTATION WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS -- BOTH WITHIN THE
LINE AND WITH ANY CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
BAND.  THUS -- SOME TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THESE STORMS.

AS THE APEX OF THE BOW APPROACHES THE ERN EDGE OF THE CURRENT WW
OVER THE NEXT HOUR...A NEW WW -- LIKELY A TORNADO WATCH -- WILL BE
REQUIRED...AND WILL COVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NRN TX AND INTO SRN
OK.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...
MAF...

LAT...LON   34989626 34299548 32599545 31619542 30929635 30739700
            30989890 30490081 31360157 32020066 32630039 33320077
            34869867 34989626





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251400
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251400
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-251500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0760
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0900 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS...NRN AL...SRN MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251400Z - 251500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DMGG WIND AND TORNADO RISK MAY ACCOMPANY A BOWING SEGMENT
MOVING ACROSS NERN MS INTO NWRN AL IN THE SHORT-TERM. IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THIS THREAT WILL PERSIST AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS
A SLIGHTLY DRIER/LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE N/E...BUT TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SMALL LINE SEGMENT EVOLVING
INTO A BOW ACROSS MONROE COUNTY MS...WHILE ALSO DISPLAYING A NOTABLE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS ACTIVITY WAS CO-LOCATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW 70S DEWPOINTS. THE DOWNSHEAR AIR
MASS IS LESS UNSTABLE DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR
/LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ AND EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG THIS BOWING
SEGMENT CAN MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
QUITE STRONG AMIDST A 30-40 KT LLJ...WHICH COULD AID IN MAINTAINING
A THREAT INTO NWRN AL AND PERHAPS SRN MIDDLE TN. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35448635 34998624 34318645 33818746 33808840 33848883
            34188892 34538870 35208702 35448635






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251400
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251400
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-251500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0760
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0900 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS...NRN AL...SRN MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251400Z - 251500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DMGG WIND AND TORNADO RISK MAY ACCOMPANY A BOWING SEGMENT
MOVING ACROSS NERN MS INTO NWRN AL IN THE SHORT-TERM. IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THIS THREAT WILL PERSIST AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS
A SLIGHTLY DRIER/LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE N/E...BUT TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SMALL LINE SEGMENT EVOLVING
INTO A BOW ACROSS MONROE COUNTY MS...WHILE ALSO DISPLAYING A NOTABLE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS ACTIVITY WAS CO-LOCATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW 70S DEWPOINTS. THE DOWNSHEAR AIR
MASS IS LESS UNSTABLE DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR
/LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ AND EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG THIS BOWING
SEGMENT CAN MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
QUITE STRONG AMIDST A 30-40 KT LLJ...WHICH COULD AID IN MAINTAINING
A THREAT INTO NWRN AL AND PERHAPS SRN MIDDLE TN. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35448635 34998624 34318645 33818746 33808840 33848883
            34188892 34538870 35208702 35448635





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251400
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251400
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-251500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0760
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0900 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS...NRN AL...SRN MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251400Z - 251500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DMGG WIND AND TORNADO RISK MAY ACCOMPANY A BOWING SEGMENT
MOVING ACROSS NERN MS INTO NWRN AL IN THE SHORT-TERM. IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THIS THREAT WILL PERSIST AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS
A SLIGHTLY DRIER/LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE N/E...BUT TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A SMALL LINE SEGMENT EVOLVING
INTO A BOW ACROSS MONROE COUNTY MS...WHILE ALSO DISPLAYING A NOTABLE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS ACTIVITY WAS CO-LOCATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW 70S DEWPOINTS. THE DOWNSHEAR AIR
MASS IS LESS UNSTABLE DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR
/LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ AND EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG THIS BOWING
SEGMENT CAN MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
QUITE STRONG AMIDST A 30-40 KT LLJ...WHICH COULD AID IN MAINTAINING
A THREAT INTO NWRN AL AND PERHAPS SRN MIDDLE TN. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35448635 34998624 34318645 33818746 33808840 33848883
            34188892 34538870 35208702 35448635





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251253
TXZ000-251500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0759
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251253Z - 251500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TSTM HAS FINALLY INTENSIFIED DOWNSTREAM OF A PERSISTENT
SUPERCELL NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE DEGREE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM COVERAGE THIS MORNING. BUT IF OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...A WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER
PARTS OF NE EDWARDS/NRN REAL COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM OF A LONGER-LIVED
SUPERCELL OVER SW EDWARDS/NRN KINNEY COUNTIES AS OF 1250Z. RECENT
HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DIMINISHING THIS CONVECTION
THROUGH LATE MORNING IN THE MIDST OF PEAK MLCIN LIKELY FROM THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE TO HILL COUNTRY. WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL SUSTAIN
ITSELF S OF THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PERMIAN BASIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS UNCERTAIN. BUT A RISK FOR ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS MAY PERSIST
INTO MIDDAY.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29680059 30339979 30999874 30929807 30479809 29829825
            28829887 28519929 28429967 29680059





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251253
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251253
TXZ000-251500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0759
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251253Z - 251500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TSTM HAS FINALLY INTENSIFIED DOWNSTREAM OF A PERSISTENT
SUPERCELL NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE DEGREE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM COVERAGE THIS MORNING. BUT IF OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...A WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...A STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM HAS DEVELOPED OVER
PARTS OF NE EDWARDS/NRN REAL COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM OF A LONGER-LIVED
SUPERCELL OVER SW EDWARDS/NRN KINNEY COUNTIES AS OF 1250Z. RECENT
HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DIMINISHING THIS CONVECTION
THROUGH LATE MORNING IN THE MIDST OF PEAK MLCIN LIKELY FROM THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE TO HILL COUNTRY. WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL SUSTAIN
ITSELF S OF THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PERMIAN BASIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS UNCERTAIN. BUT A RISK FOR ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS MAY PERSIST
INTO MIDDAY.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29680059 30339979 30999874 30929807 30479809 29829825
            28829887 28519929 28429967 29680059






000
ACUS01 KWNS 251234
SWODY1
SPC AC 251233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OK...NORTHEAST TX...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST AR...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
OK...WESTERN AR...NORTHWEST LA...AND NORTH/CENTRAL TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES...

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICAL ERROR ON HAIL CHART

...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
MORE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.

...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TX AND SOUTHEAST OK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES...

...NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A COMPACT...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST TX.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING...AND INTO
NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK LATER TODAY.  A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
HAS FORMED IN WEST TX...WITHIN THE ASCENT REGION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
AND INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING RAPIDLY DESTABILIZES
THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORMS.  MOST OVERNIGHT CAM SOLUTIONS
ARE CONSISTENT IN ORGANIZING THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS INTO A BOWING
MCS /POSSIBLE DERECHO/ THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN
OK LATER TODAY.  GIVEN THE FAST AND NEGATIVELY-TILTED NATURE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND AMPLE
CAPE...HAVE UPGRADED THIS REGION TO A MODERATE RISK.  VERY LARGE
HAIL AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN RAISED FOR THE RISK OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS FORMING AHEAD OF THE MCS AROUND PEAK HEATING WHEN
INHIBITION WILL BE WEAKEST...AS WELL AS FOR THE RISK OF QLCS
SPIN-UPS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS.  STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO AR AND NORTHERN LA DURING THE EVENING WITH A
CONTINUED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...CENTRAL TX...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE DIVERSE REGARDING THE COVERAGE
AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TX LATER TODAY...RESULTING
IN MORE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.  ONE SUPERCELL IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THE DRT REGION.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTS THIS
MORNING...OR IF NEW STORMS DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR AND SUFFICIENT WINDS ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO GROW UPSCALE
INTO A BOWING MCS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVE TOWARD THE
UPPER/MIDDLE TX GULF COAST REGION.

...KS/MO/NEB/IA/MN...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MN
INTO NORTHWEST IA AND EASTERN NEB.  DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE CAPE VALUES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY IN THIS REGION...SUGGESTING THAT
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS WEAK.
NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KS/NEB AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE RATHER WEAK...BUT VEERING WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
SUPPORT THE RISK OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO.

..HART.. 05/25/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 251234
SWODY1
SPC AC 251233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OK...NORTHEAST TX...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST AR...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
OK...WESTERN AR...NORTHWEST LA...AND NORTH/CENTRAL TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES...

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICAL ERROR ON HAIL CHART

...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
MORE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.

...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TX AND SOUTHEAST OK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES...

...NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A COMPACT...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST TX.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING...AND INTO
NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK LATER TODAY.  A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
HAS FORMED IN WEST TX...WITHIN THE ASCENT REGION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
AND INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING RAPIDLY DESTABILIZES
THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORMS.  MOST OVERNIGHT CAM SOLUTIONS
ARE CONSISTENT IN ORGANIZING THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS INTO A BOWING
MCS /POSSIBLE DERECHO/ THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN
OK LATER TODAY.  GIVEN THE FAST AND NEGATIVELY-TILTED NATURE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND AMPLE
CAPE...HAVE UPGRADED THIS REGION TO A MODERATE RISK.  VERY LARGE
HAIL AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN RAISED FOR THE RISK OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS FORMING AHEAD OF THE MCS AROUND PEAK HEATING WHEN
INHIBITION WILL BE WEAKEST...AS WELL AS FOR THE RISK OF QLCS
SPIN-UPS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS.  STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO AR AND NORTHERN LA DURING THE EVENING WITH A
CONTINUED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...CENTRAL TX...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE DIVERSE REGARDING THE COVERAGE
AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TX LATER TODAY...RESULTING
IN MORE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.  ONE SUPERCELL IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THE DRT REGION.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTS THIS
MORNING...OR IF NEW STORMS DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR AND SUFFICIENT WINDS ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO GROW UPSCALE
INTO A BOWING MCS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVE TOWARD THE
UPPER/MIDDLE TX GULF COAST REGION.

...KS/MO/NEB/IA/MN...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MN
INTO NORTHWEST IA AND EASTERN NEB.  DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE CAPE VALUES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY IN THIS REGION...SUGGESTING THAT
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS WEAK.
NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KS/NEB AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE RATHER WEAK...BUT VEERING WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
SUPPORT THE RISK OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO.

..HART.. 05/25/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 251225
SWODY1
SPC AC 251223

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OK...NORTHEAST TX...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST AR...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
OK...WESTERN AR...NORTHWEST LA...AND NORTH/CENTRAL TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES...

...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
MORE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.

...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TX AND SOUTHEAST OK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES...

...NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A COMPACT...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST TX.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING...AND INTO
NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK LATER TODAY.  A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
HAS FORMED IN WEST TX...WITHIN THE ASCENT REGION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
AND INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING RAPIDLY DESTABILIZES
THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORMS.  MOST OVERNIGHT CAM SOLUTIONS
ARE CONSISTENT IN ORGANIZING THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS INTO A BOWING
MCS /POSSIBLE DERECHO/ THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN
OK LATER TODAY.  GIVEN THE FAST AND NEGATIVELY-TILTED NATURE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND AMPLE
CAPE...HAVE UPGRADED THIS REGION TO A MODERATE RISK.  VERY LARGE
HAIL AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN RAISED FOR THE RISK OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS FORMING AHEAD OF THE MCS AROUND PEAK HEATING WHEN
INHIBITION WILL BE WEAKEST...AS WELL AS FOR THE RISK OF QLCS
SPIN-UPS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS.  STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO AR AND NORTHERN LA DURING THE EVENING WITH A
CONTINUED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...CENTRAL TX...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE DIVERSE REGARDING THE COVERAGE
AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TX LATER TODAY...RESULTING
IN MORE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.  ONE SUPERCELL IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THE DRT REGION.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTS THIS
MORNING...OR IF NEW STORMS DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR AND SUFFICIENT WINDS ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO GROW UPSCALE
INTO A BOWING MCS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVE TOWARD THE
UPPER/MIDDLE TX GULF COAST REGION.

...KS/MO/NEB/IA/MN...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MN
INTO NORTHWEST IA AND EASTERN NEB.  DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE CAPE VALUES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY IN THIS REGION...SUGGESTING THAT
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS WEAK.
NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KS/NEB AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE RATHER WEAK...BUT VEERING WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
SUPPORT THE RISK OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO.

..HART/GLEASON.. 05/25/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 251225
SWODY1
SPC AC 251223

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OK...NORTHEAST TX...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST AR...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
OK...WESTERN AR...NORTHWEST LA...AND NORTH/CENTRAL TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES...

...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
MORE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.

...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TX AND SOUTHEAST OK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES...

...NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A COMPACT...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST TX.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING...AND INTO
NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK LATER TODAY.  A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
HAS FORMED IN WEST TX...WITHIN THE ASCENT REGION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
AND INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING RAPIDLY DESTABILIZES
THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORMS.  MOST OVERNIGHT CAM SOLUTIONS
ARE CONSISTENT IN ORGANIZING THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS INTO A BOWING
MCS /POSSIBLE DERECHO/ THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN
OK LATER TODAY.  GIVEN THE FAST AND NEGATIVELY-TILTED NATURE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND AMPLE
CAPE...HAVE UPGRADED THIS REGION TO A MODERATE RISK.  VERY LARGE
HAIL AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN RAISED FOR THE RISK OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS FORMING AHEAD OF THE MCS AROUND PEAK HEATING WHEN
INHIBITION WILL BE WEAKEST...AS WELL AS FOR THE RISK OF QLCS
SPIN-UPS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS.  STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO AR AND NORTHERN LA DURING THE EVENING WITH A
CONTINUED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...CENTRAL TX...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE DIVERSE REGARDING THE COVERAGE
AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TX LATER TODAY...RESULTING
IN MORE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.  ONE SUPERCELL IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THE DRT REGION.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTS THIS
MORNING...OR IF NEW STORMS DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR AND SUFFICIENT WINDS ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO GROW UPSCALE
INTO A BOWING MCS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVE TOWARD THE
UPPER/MIDDLE TX GULF COAST REGION.

...KS/MO/NEB/IA/MN...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MN
INTO NORTHWEST IA AND EASTERN NEB.  DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE CAPE VALUES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY IN THIS REGION...SUGGESTING THAT
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS WEAK.
NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KS/NEB AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE RATHER WEAK...BUT VEERING WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
SUPPORT THE RISK OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO.

..HART/GLEASON.. 05/25/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 251225
SWODY1
SPC AC 251223

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OK...NORTHEAST TX...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST AR...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
OK...WESTERN AR...NORTHWEST LA...AND NORTH/CENTRAL TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES...

...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
MORE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.

...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TX AND SOUTHEAST OK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES...

...NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A COMPACT...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST TX.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING...AND INTO
NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK LATER TODAY.  A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
HAS FORMED IN WEST TX...WITHIN THE ASCENT REGION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
AND INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING RAPIDLY DESTABILIZES
THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORMS.  MOST OVERNIGHT CAM SOLUTIONS
ARE CONSISTENT IN ORGANIZING THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS INTO A BOWING
MCS /POSSIBLE DERECHO/ THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN
OK LATER TODAY.  GIVEN THE FAST AND NEGATIVELY-TILTED NATURE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND AMPLE
CAPE...HAVE UPGRADED THIS REGION TO A MODERATE RISK.  VERY LARGE
HAIL AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN RAISED FOR THE RISK OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS FORMING AHEAD OF THE MCS AROUND PEAK HEATING WHEN
INHIBITION WILL BE WEAKEST...AS WELL AS FOR THE RISK OF QLCS
SPIN-UPS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS.  STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO AR AND NORTHERN LA DURING THE EVENING WITH A
CONTINUED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...CENTRAL TX...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE DIVERSE REGARDING THE COVERAGE
AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TX LATER TODAY...RESULTING
IN MORE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.  ONE SUPERCELL IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THE DRT REGION.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTS THIS
MORNING...OR IF NEW STORMS DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR AND SUFFICIENT WINDS ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO GROW UPSCALE
INTO A BOWING MCS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVE TOWARD THE
UPPER/MIDDLE TX GULF COAST REGION.

...KS/MO/NEB/IA/MN...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MN
INTO NORTHWEST IA AND EASTERN NEB.  DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE CAPE VALUES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY IN THIS REGION...SUGGESTING THAT
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS WEAK.
NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KS/NEB AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE RATHER WEAK...BUT VEERING WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
SUPPORT THE RISK OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO.

..HART/GLEASON.. 05/25/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 251225
SWODY1
SPC AC 251223

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OK...NORTHEAST TX...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST AR...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
OK...WESTERN AR...NORTHWEST LA...AND NORTH/CENTRAL TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES...

...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
MORE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.

...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TX AND SOUTHEAST OK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES...

...NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A COMPACT...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST TX.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING...AND INTO
NORTH TX/SOUTHERN OK LATER TODAY.  A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
HAS FORMED IN WEST TX...WITHIN THE ASCENT REGION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE
AND INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING RAPIDLY DESTABILIZES
THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORMS.  MOST OVERNIGHT CAM SOLUTIONS
ARE CONSISTENT IN ORGANIZING THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS INTO A BOWING
MCS /POSSIBLE DERECHO/ THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN
OK LATER TODAY.  GIVEN THE FAST AND NEGATIVELY-TILTED NATURE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...THE STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST TO PASS
ACROSS THE REGION...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND AMPLE
CAPE...HAVE UPGRADED THIS REGION TO A MODERATE RISK.  VERY LARGE
HAIL AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
TORNADO PROBABILITIES HAVE ALSO BEEN RAISED FOR THE RISK OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS FORMING AHEAD OF THE MCS AROUND PEAK HEATING WHEN
INHIBITION WILL BE WEAKEST...AS WELL AS FOR THE RISK OF QLCS
SPIN-UPS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS.  STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO AR AND NORTHERN LA DURING THE EVENING WITH A
CONTINUED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...CENTRAL TX...
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE DIVERSE REGARDING THE COVERAGE
AND TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TX LATER TODAY...RESULTING
IN MORE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.  ONE SUPERCELL IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
THE DRT REGION.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY PERSISTS THIS
MORNING...OR IF NEW STORMS DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR AND SUFFICIENT WINDS ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO GROW UPSCALE
INTO A BOWING MCS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVE TOWARD THE
UPPER/MIDDLE TX GULF COAST REGION.

...KS/MO/NEB/IA/MN...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MN
INTO NORTHWEST IA AND EASTERN NEB.  DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL
LEAD TO MODERATE CAPE VALUES LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY IN THIS REGION...SUGGESTING THAT
LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS WEAK.
NEVERTHELESS...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KS/NEB AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE RATHER WEAK...BUT VEERING WIND PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY
SUPPORT THE RISK OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO.

..HART/GLEASON.. 05/25/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251150
TXZ000-251245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0758
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...

VALID 251150Z - 251245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS TOWARDS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY THROUGH MIDDAY.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED JUST N OF MAF WITHIN STRONGLY
FORCED ASCENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS E/NE THROUGH LATE MORNING...STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE
WRN GULF AIR MASS THAT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY. WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8 DEG C/KM...LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL
AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WITH DESTABILIZING DOWNSTREAM
AIR MASS SHOULD FOSTER AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND RISK BY LATE
MORNING.

..GRAMS.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31550126 32090305 32150305 32680305 32860305 32950305
            33810208 33830168 33830162 33830158 33830152 33830140
            33830125 33830087 33840051 33840038 33840006 33840000
            33409894 32959894 32089912 31579972 31550126 31550126





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251150
TXZ000-251245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0758
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...

VALID 251150Z - 251245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS TOWARDS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY THROUGH MIDDAY.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED JUST N OF MAF WITHIN STRONGLY
FORCED ASCENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS E/NE THROUGH LATE MORNING...STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE
WRN GULF AIR MASS THAT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY. WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8 DEG C/KM...LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL
AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WITH DESTABILIZING DOWNSTREAM
AIR MASS SHOULD FOSTER AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND RISK BY LATE
MORNING.

..GRAMS.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31550126 32090305 32150305 32680305 32860305 32950305
            33810208 33830168 33830162 33830158 33830152 33830140
            33830125 33830087 33840051 33840038 33840006 33840000
            33409894 32959894 32089912 31579972 31550126 31550126





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251150
TXZ000-251245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0758
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...

VALID 251150Z - 251245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS TOWARDS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY THROUGH MIDDAY.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED JUST N OF MAF WITHIN STRONGLY
FORCED ASCENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS E/NE THROUGH LATE MORNING...STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE
WRN GULF AIR MASS THAT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY. WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8 DEG C/KM...LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL
AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WITH DESTABILIZING DOWNSTREAM
AIR MASS SHOULD FOSTER AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND RISK BY LATE
MORNING.

..GRAMS.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31550126 32090305 32150305 32680305 32860305 32950305
            33810208 33830168 33830162 33830158 33830152 33830140
            33830125 33830087 33840051 33840038 33840006 33840000
            33409894 32959894 32089912 31579972 31550126 31550126





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251150
TXZ000-251245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0758
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...

VALID 251150Z - 251245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS TOWARDS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY THROUGH MIDDAY.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED JUST N OF MAF WITHIN STRONGLY
FORCED ASCENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS E/NE THROUGH LATE MORNING...STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE
WRN GULF AIR MASS THAT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY. WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8 DEG C/KM...LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL
AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WITH DESTABILIZING DOWNSTREAM
AIR MASS SHOULD FOSTER AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND RISK BY LATE
MORNING.

..GRAMS.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31550126 32090305 32150305 32680305 32860305 32950305
            33810208 33830168 33830162 33830158 33830152 33830140
            33830125 33830087 33840051 33840038 33840006 33840000
            33409894 32959894 32089912 31579972 31550126 31550126






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251150
TXZ000-251245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0758
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...

VALID 251150Z - 251245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS TOWARDS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY THROUGH MIDDAY.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED JUST N OF MAF WITHIN STRONGLY
FORCED ASCENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS E/NE THROUGH LATE MORNING...STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE
WRN GULF AIR MASS THAT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY. WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8 DEG C/KM...LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL
AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WITH DESTABILIZING DOWNSTREAM
AIR MASS SHOULD FOSTER AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND RISK BY LATE
MORNING.

..GRAMS.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31550126 32090305 32150305 32680305 32860305 32950305
            33810208 33830168 33830162 33830158 33830152 33830140
            33830125 33830087 33840051 33840038 33840006 33840000
            33409894 32959894 32089912 31579972 31550126 31550126






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251150
TXZ000-251245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0758
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...

VALID 251150Z - 251245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS TOWARDS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY THROUGH MIDDAY.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED JUST N OF MAF WITHIN STRONGLY
FORCED ASCENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS
THIS IMPULSE TRACKS E/NE THROUGH LATE MORNING...STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE
WRN GULF AIR MASS THAT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY. WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8 DEG C/KM...LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL
AND ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WITH DESTABILIZING DOWNSTREAM
AIR MASS SHOULD FOSTER AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND RISK BY LATE
MORNING.

..GRAMS.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31550126 32090305 32150305 32680305 32860305 32950305
            33810208 33830168 33830162 33830158 33830152 33830140
            33830125 33830087 33840051 33840038 33840006 33840000
            33409894 32959894 32089912 31579972 31550126 31550126





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250817
TXZ000-251215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PERMIAN BASIN...CONCHO VALLEY...EDWARDS PLATEAU

CONCERNING...01Z OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 250817Z - 251215Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM THE TRANS-PECOS TO COAHUILA
SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT SPREADS EWD IN PARTS OF W TX THIS MORNING.
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD INITIALLY...BUT A TORNADO
AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE...WITH AN
EFFECTIVE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK THROUGH 12Z.

DISCUSSION...FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING INTO THE TRANS-PECOS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SURGING NW ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAS AIDED IN TSTM INITIATION
SINCE 07Z ACROSS FAR W TX TO NRN COAHUILA. CAM GUIDANCE IS QUITE
CONSISTENT WITH SUGGESTING TWO DISTINCT TSTM CLUSTERS EVOLVING E/NE
FROM THESE AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING /ALBEIT WITH VARYING LEVELS OF
INTENSITY/.

THE NWRN PORTION MAY REMAIN PREDOMINATELY ELEVATED GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF MLCIN ON THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE RETURNING GULF MOISTURE PLUME.
BUT VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONGEST DCVA SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST A LARGE HAIL RISK OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN/CONCHO
VALLEY. THE SERN PORTION SHOULD HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN
SURFACE-BASED CHARACTER GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
DEW POINTS ALREADY FROM DRT TO JCT ON S. WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 35 KT
SAMPLED IN DFX VWP DATA AND LARGE INSTABILITY...A MORNING TORNADO
RISK MIGHT DEVELOP DESPITE SOME DEGREE OF MLCIN. OTHERWISE...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   31730281 32050221 32340142 32440102 32340065 32040053
            31510045 30779994 30599957 30519918 30229893 29769888
            29349902 28769980 28550049 29640132 30380174 30800299
            31210324 31730281






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250817
TXZ000-251215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PERMIAN BASIN...CONCHO VALLEY...EDWARDS PLATEAU

CONCERNING...01Z OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 250817Z - 251215Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM THE TRANS-PECOS TO COAHUILA
SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT SPREADS EWD IN PARTS OF W TX THIS MORNING.
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD INITIALLY...BUT A TORNADO
AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE...WITH AN
EFFECTIVE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK THROUGH 12Z.

DISCUSSION...FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING INTO THE TRANS-PECOS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SURGING NW ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAS AIDED IN TSTM INITIATION
SINCE 07Z ACROSS FAR W TX TO NRN COAHUILA. CAM GUIDANCE IS QUITE
CONSISTENT WITH SUGGESTING TWO DISTINCT TSTM CLUSTERS EVOLVING E/NE
FROM THESE AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING /ALBEIT WITH VARYING LEVELS OF
INTENSITY/.

THE NWRN PORTION MAY REMAIN PREDOMINATELY ELEVATED GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF MLCIN ON THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE RETURNING GULF MOISTURE PLUME.
BUT VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONGEST DCVA SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST A LARGE HAIL RISK OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN/CONCHO
VALLEY. THE SERN PORTION SHOULD HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN
SURFACE-BASED CHARACTER GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
DEW POINTS ALREADY FROM DRT TO JCT ON S. WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 35 KT
SAMPLED IN DFX VWP DATA AND LARGE INSTABILITY...A MORNING TORNADO
RISK MIGHT DEVELOP DESPITE SOME DEGREE OF MLCIN. OTHERWISE...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   31730281 32050221 32340142 32440102 32340065 32040053
            31510045 30779994 30599957 30519918 30229893 29769888
            29349902 28769980 28550049 29640132 30380174 30800299
            31210324 31730281





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250817
TXZ000-251215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PERMIAN BASIN...CONCHO VALLEY...EDWARDS PLATEAU

CONCERNING...01Z OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 250817Z - 251215Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM THE TRANS-PECOS TO COAHUILA
SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT SPREADS EWD IN PARTS OF W TX THIS MORNING.
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD INITIALLY...BUT A TORNADO
AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE...WITH AN
EFFECTIVE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK THROUGH 12Z.

DISCUSSION...FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING INTO THE TRANS-PECOS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SURGING NW ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAS AIDED IN TSTM INITIATION
SINCE 07Z ACROSS FAR W TX TO NRN COAHUILA. CAM GUIDANCE IS QUITE
CONSISTENT WITH SUGGESTING TWO DISTINCT TSTM CLUSTERS EVOLVING E/NE
FROM THESE AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING /ALBEIT WITH VARYING LEVELS OF
INTENSITY/.

THE NWRN PORTION MAY REMAIN PREDOMINATELY ELEVATED GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF MLCIN ON THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE RETURNING GULF MOISTURE PLUME.
BUT VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONGEST DCVA SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST A LARGE HAIL RISK OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN/CONCHO
VALLEY. THE SERN PORTION SHOULD HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN
SURFACE-BASED CHARACTER GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
DEW POINTS ALREADY FROM DRT TO JCT ON S. WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 35 KT
SAMPLED IN DFX VWP DATA AND LARGE INSTABILITY...A MORNING TORNADO
RISK MIGHT DEVELOP DESPITE SOME DEGREE OF MLCIN. OTHERWISE...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   31730281 32050221 32340142 32440102 32340065 32040053
            31510045 30779994 30599957 30519918 30229893 29769888
            29349902 28769980 28550049 29640132 30380174 30800299
            31210324 31730281





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250738
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-251015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...SWRN AL...FAR ERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 250738Z - 251015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOW-END SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT COULD PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 10Z WITH A FEW DISCRETE STORMS AMIDST SCATTERED CONVECTION
EMANATING N FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST. OVERALL RISK FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT
WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITHIN A BROAD WARM CONVEYOR REGION FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST
TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH. MODEST BUOYANCY ALONG THE SRN PORTION OF THIS
ACTIVITY /CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS/
IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUFFICIENT LOWER-LEVEL SHEAR SAMPLED IN AREA VWP
DATA WILL SUPPORT TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES /AS EVIDENCED IN
WAYNE COUNTY MS/. HOWEVER...WITH TIME THIS MORNING...LOW/MID-LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND BECOME VEERED IN RESPONSE TO THE LOWER MO
VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCELERATING NNE TOWARDS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. THIS SUGGESTS THE OVERALL RISK WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29879013 31189011 31748956 32258917 32778874 32818818
            32668786 32418780 31928784 31628786 30798812 30368834
            29879013





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250738
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-251015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...SWRN AL...FAR ERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 250738Z - 251015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOW-END SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT COULD PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 10Z WITH A FEW DISCRETE STORMS AMIDST SCATTERED CONVECTION
EMANATING N FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST. OVERALL RISK FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT
WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITHIN A BROAD WARM CONVEYOR REGION FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST
TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH. MODEST BUOYANCY ALONG THE SRN PORTION OF THIS
ACTIVITY /CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS/
IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUFFICIENT LOWER-LEVEL SHEAR SAMPLED IN AREA VWP
DATA WILL SUPPORT TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES /AS EVIDENCED IN
WAYNE COUNTY MS/. HOWEVER...WITH TIME THIS MORNING...LOW/MID-LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND BECOME VEERED IN RESPONSE TO THE LOWER MO
VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCELERATING NNE TOWARDS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. THIS SUGGESTS THE OVERALL RISK WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29879013 31189011 31748956 32258917 32778874 32818818
            32668786 32418780 31928784 31628786 30798812 30368834
            29879013





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250738
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-251015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...SWRN AL...FAR ERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 250738Z - 251015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOW-END SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT COULD PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 10Z WITH A FEW DISCRETE STORMS AMIDST SCATTERED CONVECTION
EMANATING N FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST. OVERALL RISK FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT
WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITHIN A BROAD WARM CONVEYOR REGION FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST
TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH. MODEST BUOYANCY ALONG THE SRN PORTION OF THIS
ACTIVITY /CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS/
IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUFFICIENT LOWER-LEVEL SHEAR SAMPLED IN AREA VWP
DATA WILL SUPPORT TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES /AS EVIDENCED IN
WAYNE COUNTY MS/. HOWEVER...WITH TIME THIS MORNING...LOW/MID-LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND BECOME VEERED IN RESPONSE TO THE LOWER MO
VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCELERATING NNE TOWARDS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. THIS SUGGESTS THE OVERALL RISK WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29879013 31189011 31748956 32258917 32778874 32818818
            32668786 32418780 31928784 31628786 30798812 30368834
            29879013





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250738
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-251015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...SWRN AL...FAR ERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 250738Z - 251015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOW-END SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT COULD PERSIST THROUGH
ABOUT 10Z WITH A FEW DISCRETE STORMS AMIDST SCATTERED CONVECTION
EMANATING N FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST. OVERALL RISK FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT
WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITHIN A BROAD WARM CONVEYOR REGION FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST
TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH. MODEST BUOYANCY ALONG THE SRN PORTION OF THIS
ACTIVITY /CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS/
IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUFFICIENT LOWER-LEVEL SHEAR SAMPLED IN AREA VWP
DATA WILL SUPPORT TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES /AS EVIDENCED IN
WAYNE COUNTY MS/. HOWEVER...WITH TIME THIS MORNING...LOW/MID-LEVEL
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AND BECOME VEERED IN RESPONSE TO THE LOWER MO
VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCELERATING NNE TOWARDS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY. THIS SUGGESTS THE OVERALL RISK WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29879013 31189011 31748956 32258917 32778874 32818818
            32668786 32418780 31928784 31628786 30798812 30368834
            29879013






000
ACUS03 KWNS 250731
SWODY3
SPC AC 250730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE
NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MAY INITIALLY BE PREVALENT...THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED LATE IN THE DAY BY WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS VIA AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.
UPSLOPE VIA EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES AND
NEAR-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN AFTERNOON/EVENING
INCREASE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. STORMS SEEM LIKELY TO
PERSIST GENERALLY EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AID OF A NOCTURNALLY
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY SOME TORNADO
RISK WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
PARTICULARLY IF UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST STATES...
AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PASSING SPEED MAX
GLANCE THE REGION COINCIDENT WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 250731
SWODY3
SPC AC 250730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE
NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHEAST UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MAY INITIALLY BE PREVALENT...THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED LATE IN THE DAY BY WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS VIA AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.
UPSLOPE VIA EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES AND
NEAR-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN AFTERNOON/EVENING
INCREASE IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. STORMS SEEM LIKELY TO
PERSIST GENERALLY EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AID OF A NOCTURNALLY
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY SOME TORNADO
RISK WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
PARTICULARLY IF UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST STATES...
AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/PASSING SPEED MAX
GLANCE THE REGION COINCIDENT WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR
MASS.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 250601
SWODY2
SPC AC 250600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY AND TN/OH VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX TO THE
NORTHEAST STATES/APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. OTHER POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.

...LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...
EARLY DAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER
POTENTIALLY RELATED TO A WEAKENING MCS WILL LIKELY BE A FACTOR
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE CONSIDERABLE SPATIAL/RISK
MAGNITUDE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST...ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY/MIDWEST WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAKER...DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION AND RELATED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOCUSED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EARLY DAY
ACTIVITY.

WHILE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REMAINS....A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED
MID/UPPER JET WILL GENERALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
MIDWEST DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. AS STORMS INCREASE/INTENSIFY INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY AND A RELATIVELY
STRONG WIND FIELD /PARTICULARLY TN VALLEY NORTHWARD/ COULD SUPPORT
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARKS...
WHILE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAK UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...A PASSING/WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IMPLIES AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PERIOD AND
A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE AND
NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SPATIAL DETAILS ARE
NOT HIGH /OUTLOOK ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE EXPECTED/...AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE/MODEST VERTICAL
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. STORMS COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND/OR OTHERWISE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TOWARD THE OZARKS VICINITY WITH AID OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 250601
SWODY2
SPC AC 250600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY AND TN/OH VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF TX TO THE
NORTHEAST STATES/APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. OTHER POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.

...LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...
EARLY DAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER
POTENTIALLY RELATED TO A WEAKENING MCS WILL LIKELY BE A FACTOR
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE CONSIDERABLE SPATIAL/RISK
MAGNITUDE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST...ESPECIALLY NORTHWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY/MIDWEST WHERE BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAKER...DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION AND RELATED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
FOCUSED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EARLY DAY
ACTIVITY.

WHILE GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REMAINS....A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED
MID/UPPER JET WILL GENERALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
MIDWEST DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. AS STORMS INCREASE/INTENSIFY INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY AND A RELATIVELY
STRONG WIND FIELD /PARTICULARLY TN VALLEY NORTHWARD/ COULD SUPPORT
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARKS...
WHILE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAK UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...A PASSING/WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IMPLIES AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PERIOD AND
A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE AND
NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SPATIAL DETAILS ARE
NOT HIGH /OUTLOOK ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE EXPECTED/...AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE/MODEST VERTICAL
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. STORMS COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND/OR OTHERWISE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TOWARD THE OZARKS VICINITY WITH AID OF INCREASING WARM ADVECTION.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 250557
SWODY1
SPC AC 250556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A CORRIDOR EXTENDING ACROSS
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.  STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  A FEW
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN PROMINENT ALONG
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  MODELS DO INDICATE THAT
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN INTO CENTRAL U.S. MAY BEGIN TO
DEAMPLIFY A BIT...BUT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST...WITH A NUMBER OF SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS.  SEVERAL OF THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST OF
THE ROCKIES...WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS...AND GREAT LAKES REGION...ABOVE A
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

THIS INCLUDES ONE IMPULSE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT NORTHEAST OF
THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  UPSTREAM...THE
REMNANTS OF A COMPACT...BUT SIGNIFICANT...MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION /NOW
PROGRESSING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS/ ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY TODAY.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...JUST AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED
LOW NOW BEGINNING TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE THAT A 30-50 KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC JET
WILL ACCOMPANY THE IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS
FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO NOSE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE BIG BEND
REGION AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING.  ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
ASCENT...COUPLED WITH RETURNING MOISTURE BENEATH AT LEAST MODESTLY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MAY ALREADY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
SUPPORTING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHILE
DEVELOPING EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AS INFLOW
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.

THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL APPEARS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT INITIALLY.
 EVENTUALLY...A GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO EVOLUTION OF AN INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  ALTHOUGH AMBIENT
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY BE INITIALLY MODEST...AT LEAST SOME
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE DAY...COUPLED WITH COLD POOL
STRENGTHENING...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASING RISK FOR POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  GIVEN THE SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
/CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F/...MESOVORTICES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE GUST FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES OR LOCALLY ENHANCED SURFACE GUSTS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS
TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION AND SABINE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ADDITIONAL
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION
INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.  THIS SHOULD BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN
NATURE...BUT MAY INCLUDE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF AN INCREASINGLY BETTER DEFINED
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  BUT...THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF A PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATELY LARGE
CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  STORMS MAY INITIATE FIRST NEAR THE
DRYLINE...ON THE NOSE OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING  ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS.  THEREAFTER...A MORE SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT...EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO AWAIT BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH IMPULSE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE.  THIS MAY NOT BE
UNTIL THE 26/00-03Z TIME FRAME...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD STILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS AN ORGANIZING
STORM CLUSTER OR TWO.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE.

..KERR/PICCA.. 05/25/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 250557
SWODY1
SPC AC 250556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A CORRIDOR EXTENDING ACROSS
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.  STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  A FEW
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN PROMINENT ALONG
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  MODELS DO INDICATE THAT
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN INTO CENTRAL U.S. MAY BEGIN TO
DEAMPLIFY A BIT...BUT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST...WITH A NUMBER OF SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS.  SEVERAL OF THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST OF
THE ROCKIES...WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS...AND GREAT LAKES REGION...ABOVE A
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

THIS INCLUDES ONE IMPULSE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT NORTHEAST OF
THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  UPSTREAM...THE
REMNANTS OF A COMPACT...BUT SIGNIFICANT...MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION /NOW
PROGRESSING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS/ ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY TODAY.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...JUST AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED
LOW NOW BEGINNING TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE THAT A 30-50 KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC JET
WILL ACCOMPANY THE IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS
FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO NOSE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE BIG BEND
REGION AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING.  ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
ASCENT...COUPLED WITH RETURNING MOISTURE BENEATH AT LEAST MODESTLY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MAY ALREADY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
SUPPORTING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHILE
DEVELOPING EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AS INFLOW
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.

THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL APPEARS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT INITIALLY.
 EVENTUALLY...A GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO EVOLUTION OF AN INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  ALTHOUGH AMBIENT
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY BE INITIALLY MODEST...AT LEAST SOME
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE DAY...COUPLED WITH COLD POOL
STRENGTHENING...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASING RISK FOR POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  GIVEN THE SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
/CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F/...MESOVORTICES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE GUST FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES OR LOCALLY ENHANCED SURFACE GUSTS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS
TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION AND SABINE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ADDITIONAL
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION
INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.  THIS SHOULD BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN
NATURE...BUT MAY INCLUDE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF AN INCREASINGLY BETTER DEFINED
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  BUT...THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF A PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATELY LARGE
CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  STORMS MAY INITIATE FIRST NEAR THE
DRYLINE...ON THE NOSE OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING  ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS.  THEREAFTER...A MORE SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT...EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO AWAIT BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH IMPULSE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE.  THIS MAY NOT BE
UNTIL THE 26/00-03Z TIME FRAME...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD STILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS AN ORGANIZING
STORM CLUSTER OR TWO.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE.

..KERR/PICCA.. 05/25/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 250557
SWODY1
SPC AC 250556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A CORRIDOR EXTENDING ACROSS
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.  STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  A FEW
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN PROMINENT ALONG
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  MODELS DO INDICATE THAT
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN INTO CENTRAL U.S. MAY BEGIN TO
DEAMPLIFY A BIT...BUT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST...WITH A NUMBER OF SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS.  SEVERAL OF THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST OF
THE ROCKIES...WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS...AND GREAT LAKES REGION...ABOVE A
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

THIS INCLUDES ONE IMPULSE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT NORTHEAST OF
THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY
TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  UPSTREAM...THE
REMNANTS OF A COMPACT...BUT SIGNIFICANT...MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION /NOW
PROGRESSING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS/ ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY TODAY.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IT WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT...JUST AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED
LOW NOW BEGINNING TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE THAT A 30-50 KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC JET
WILL ACCOMPANY THE IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS
FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO NOSE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE BIG BEND
REGION AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING.  ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
ASCENT...COUPLED WITH RETURNING MOISTURE BENEATH AT LEAST MODESTLY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MAY ALREADY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
SUPPORTING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHILE
DEVELOPING EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AS INFLOW
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.

THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL APPEARS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT INITIALLY.
 EVENTUALLY...A GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO EVOLUTION OF AN INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  ALTHOUGH AMBIENT
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY BE INITIALLY MODEST...AT LEAST SOME
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE DAY...COUPLED WITH COLD POOL
STRENGTHENING...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASING RISK FOR POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  GIVEN THE SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
/CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F/...MESOVORTICES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE GUST FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES OR LOCALLY ENHANCED SURFACE GUSTS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS
TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION AND SABINE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ADDITIONAL
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION
INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.  THIS SHOULD BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN
NATURE...BUT MAY INCLUDE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF AN INCREASINGLY BETTER DEFINED
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  BUT...THE NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION OF A PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATELY LARGE
CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  STORMS MAY INITIATE FIRST NEAR THE
DRYLINE...ON THE NOSE OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING  ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS.  THEREAFTER...A MORE SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT...EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO AWAIT BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH IMPULSE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE.  THIS MAY NOT BE
UNTIL THE 26/00-03Z TIME FRAME...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD STILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS AN ORGANIZING
STORM CLUSTER OR TWO.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE.

..KERR/PICCA.. 05/25/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250534
KSZ000-OKZ000-250630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 206...208...

VALID 250534Z - 250630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 206...208...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WITH WW/S 206/208 EXPIRING AT 06Z...SEVERE RISK MAY
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z ACROSS A SMALL PART OF SW KS WITH A
LOCAL WW EXTENSION POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL CLUSTER MAY ALREADY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING NEAR THE DDC AREA AS INITIAL SUPERCELL RESPONSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL TORNADO REPORTS BECAME ABSORBED WITH AN UPSTREAM CLUSTER.
THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE HAS WEAKENED DURING THIS
MERGING PROCESS...BUT TRANSIENT STORM-SCALE INTENSIFICATION COULD
STILL RESULT IN BRIEF TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z.
OVERALL...THIS CLUSTER SHOULD STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY GREATLY AMIDST
SLOWLY INCREASING MLCIN AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM
VALUES AROUND 15 KT SAMPLED EARLIER IN DDC VWP DATA. AS THE LLJ
GRADUALLY VEERS ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLES/WRN OK THIS
MORNING...INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS SUPPORTED BY AN ARRAY OF EVENING
CAM GUIDANCE.

..GRAMS.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   37410067 37880015 38159961 38159929 37989904 37469916
            37209937 36959974 36940022 37260065 37410067





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250534
KSZ000-OKZ000-250630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 206...208...

VALID 250534Z - 250630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 206...208...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WITH WW/S 206/208 EXPIRING AT 06Z...SEVERE RISK MAY
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z ACROSS A SMALL PART OF SW KS WITH A
LOCAL WW EXTENSION POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL CLUSTER MAY ALREADY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING NEAR THE DDC AREA AS INITIAL SUPERCELL RESPONSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL TORNADO REPORTS BECAME ABSORBED WITH AN UPSTREAM CLUSTER.
THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE HAS WEAKENED DURING THIS
MERGING PROCESS...BUT TRANSIENT STORM-SCALE INTENSIFICATION COULD
STILL RESULT IN BRIEF TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z.
OVERALL...THIS CLUSTER SHOULD STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY GREATLY AMIDST
SLOWLY INCREASING MLCIN AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM
VALUES AROUND 15 KT SAMPLED EARLIER IN DDC VWP DATA. AS THE LLJ
GRADUALLY VEERS ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLES/WRN OK THIS
MORNING...INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS SUPPORTED BY AN ARRAY OF EVENING
CAM GUIDANCE.

..GRAMS.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   37410067 37880015 38159961 38159929 37989904 37469916
            37209937 36959974 36940022 37260065 37410067






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250534
KSZ000-OKZ000-250630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 206...208...

VALID 250534Z - 250630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 206...208...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WITH WW/S 206/208 EXPIRING AT 06Z...SEVERE RISK MAY
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z ACROSS A SMALL PART OF SW KS WITH A
LOCAL WW EXTENSION POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL CLUSTER MAY ALREADY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING NEAR THE DDC AREA AS INITIAL SUPERCELL RESPONSIBLE FOR
SEVERAL TORNADO REPORTS BECAME ABSORBED WITH AN UPSTREAM CLUSTER.
THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE HAS WEAKENED DURING THIS
MERGING PROCESS...BUT TRANSIENT STORM-SCALE INTENSIFICATION COULD
STILL RESULT IN BRIEF TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z.
OVERALL...THIS CLUSTER SHOULD STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY GREATLY AMIDST
SLOWLY INCREASING MLCIN AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM
VALUES AROUND 15 KT SAMPLED EARLIER IN DDC VWP DATA. AS THE LLJ
GRADUALLY VEERS ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLES/WRN OK THIS
MORNING...INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS SUPPORTED BY AN ARRAY OF EVENING
CAM GUIDANCE.

..GRAMS.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   37410067 37880015 38159961 38159929 37989904 37469916
            37209937 36959974 36940022 37260065 37410067





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250419
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250419
KSZ000-OKZ000-250515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0754
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 206...

VALID 250419Z - 250515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 206 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT /POTENTIALLY STRONG/ MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 05Z/MIDNIGHT CDT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS INCLUDING AREAS
NEAR/WEST OF DODGE CITY. SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE...A
PERSISTENT DISCRETE SUPERCELL WITH HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN GRAY
COUNTY AS OF 1115 PM CDT/0415Z. WHILE OVERALL SUPERCELL INTENSITY
MAY BE POST-PEAK AND ENVIRONMENTAL CINH HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST
1-2 HOURS...SUPERCELL INTERNAL DYNAMICAL PROCESSES AND RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PER DODGE CITY WSR-88D VWP DATA COULD
MAINTAIN A SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT TOWARD THE DODGE CITY AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE 05Z/MIDNIGHT CDT TIME FRAME...IF NOT BEYOND.
OTHERWISE...SOME SEVERE WIND/HAIL MAY REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THE
EASTWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE...WITH IT LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY
OVERTAKE THE AFOREMENTIONED SUPERCELL.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   37920083 38120025 38239984 38039946 37159963 36960098
            37920083





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250419
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250419
KSZ000-OKZ000-250515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0754
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 206...

VALID 250419Z - 250515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 206 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT /POTENTIALLY STRONG/ MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 05Z/MIDNIGHT CDT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS INCLUDING AREAS
NEAR/WEST OF DODGE CITY. SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE...A
PERSISTENT DISCRETE SUPERCELL WITH HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN GRAY
COUNTY AS OF 1115 PM CDT/0415Z. WHILE OVERALL SUPERCELL INTENSITY
MAY BE POST-PEAK AND ENVIRONMENTAL CINH HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST
1-2 HOURS...SUPERCELL INTERNAL DYNAMICAL PROCESSES AND RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PER DODGE CITY WSR-88D VWP DATA COULD
MAINTAIN A SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT TOWARD THE DODGE CITY AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE 05Z/MIDNIGHT CDT TIME FRAME...IF NOT BEYOND.
OTHERWISE...SOME SEVERE WIND/HAIL MAY REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THE
EASTWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE...WITH IT LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY
OVERTAKE THE AFOREMENTIONED SUPERCELL.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   37920083 38120025 38239984 38039946 37159963 36960098
            37920083





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250419
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250419
KSZ000-OKZ000-250515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0754
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 206...

VALID 250419Z - 250515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 206 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT /POTENTIALLY STRONG/ MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST 05Z/MIDNIGHT CDT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS INCLUDING AREAS
NEAR/WEST OF DODGE CITY. SEVERE HAIL/WIND WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE...A
PERSISTENT DISCRETE SUPERCELL WITH HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN GRAY
COUNTY AS OF 1115 PM CDT/0415Z. WHILE OVERALL SUPERCELL INTENSITY
MAY BE POST-PEAK AND ENVIRONMENTAL CINH HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST
1-2 HOURS...SUPERCELL INTERNAL DYNAMICAL PROCESSES AND RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PER DODGE CITY WSR-88D VWP DATA COULD
MAINTAIN A SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT TOWARD THE DODGE CITY AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE 05Z/MIDNIGHT CDT TIME FRAME...IF NOT BEYOND.
OTHERWISE...SOME SEVERE WIND/HAIL MAY REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THE
EASTWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE...WITH IT LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY
OVERTAKE THE AFOREMENTIONED SUPERCELL.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   37920083 38120025 38239984 38039946 37159963 36960098
            37920083






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250340
INZ000-ILZ000-250515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL IL/FAR WESTERN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 250340Z - 250515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE A CONCERN INTO EASTERN IL
AND POSSIBLY FAR WESTERN INDIANA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED/FAST-MOVING BOWING CLUSTER
OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
IL AS OF 1030 PM/330Z. A 50 KT MEASURED WIND GUST WAS RECENTLY /1015
PM CDT/ NOTED AT CENTRALIA IL. WHILE THE PRECEDING ENVIRONMENT TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST HAS GRADUALLY COOLED...BACKGROUND FORCING FOR
ASCENT...STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...AND THE EXISTING
ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE MAY HELP SUSTAIN AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL IL AND
POSSIBLY PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL/FAR WESTERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   38608863 39278904 39908875 40518809 40598723 40198701
            38998753 38588811 38608863





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250340
INZ000-ILZ000-250515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL IL/FAR WESTERN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 250340Z - 250515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE A CONCERN INTO EASTERN IL
AND POSSIBLY FAR WESTERN INDIANA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED/FAST-MOVING BOWING CLUSTER
OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
IL AS OF 1030 PM/330Z. A 50 KT MEASURED WIND GUST WAS RECENTLY /1015
PM CDT/ NOTED AT CENTRALIA IL. WHILE THE PRECEDING ENVIRONMENT TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST HAS GRADUALLY COOLED...BACKGROUND FORCING FOR
ASCENT...STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...AND THE EXISTING
ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE MAY HELP SUSTAIN AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL IL AND
POSSIBLY PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL/FAR WESTERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   38608863 39278904 39908875 40518809 40598723 40198701
            38998753 38588811 38608863






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250340
INZ000-ILZ000-250515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL IL/FAR WESTERN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 250340Z - 250515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE A CONCERN INTO EASTERN IL
AND POSSIBLY FAR WESTERN INDIANA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED/FAST-MOVING BOWING CLUSTER
OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
IL AS OF 1030 PM/330Z. A 50 KT MEASURED WIND GUST WAS RECENTLY /1015
PM CDT/ NOTED AT CENTRALIA IL. WHILE THE PRECEDING ENVIRONMENT TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST HAS GRADUALLY COOLED...BACKGROUND FORCING FOR
ASCENT...STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...AND THE EXISTING
ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE MAY HELP SUSTAIN AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL IL AND
POSSIBLY PARTS OF NORTHEAST IL/FAR WESTERN INDIANA OVERNIGHT.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   38608863 39278904 39908875 40518809 40598723 40198701
            38998753 38588811 38608863





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250216
KSZ000-250345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0752
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0916 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 206...

VALID 250216Z - 250345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 206 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AS WELL AS A TORNADO OR TWO...CONTINUES PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR
SRN PORTIONS OF WW 206.

DISCUSSION...THE 02Z WSR-88D MOSAIC EXHIBITS A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS
OVER SEWARD CO KS. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM WICHITA CO
TO STANTON CO /WITH AN EMBEDDED MESOVORTEX ON THE NRN END/ CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EWD. ADDITIONALLY...AN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL APPEARS TO
HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN THE SRN END OF THIS LINE. NRN PORTIONS OF THIS
LINEAR SYSTEM HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE LAST HOUR...BUT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CELLS TO THE SOUTHEAST /AS WELL AS THE TAIL-END
SUPERCELL/ ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. WHILE NOCTURNAL
COOLING HAS COMMENCED AND THE 00Z DDC RAOB SAMPLED SOME MLCIN AROUND
750-700 MB /INDICATIVE OF A MORE HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
TO THE EAST/...UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION AIDED BY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A VEERING 0-3-KM WIND PROFILE MAY MAINTAIN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY VIA DYNAMIC PRESSURE PERTURBATION PROCESSES.
INDEED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL /INCLUDING A 3-INCH REPORT/
IN SEWARD CO HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW 206. WHILE CELLS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS EAST...A LOCAL AREAL EXTENSION BY A TIER OF
COUNTIES EWD MAY BE NECESSARY IF CELLS MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT
INTENSITY.

..PICCA.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38760201 38750085 37840003 37169984 37090102 37370198
            38760201





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250216
KSZ000-250345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0752
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0916 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 206...

VALID 250216Z - 250345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 206 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AS WELL AS A TORNADO OR TWO...CONTINUES PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR
SRN PORTIONS OF WW 206.

DISCUSSION...THE 02Z WSR-88D MOSAIC EXHIBITS A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS
OVER SEWARD CO KS. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM WICHITA CO
TO STANTON CO /WITH AN EMBEDDED MESOVORTEX ON THE NRN END/ CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EWD. ADDITIONALLY...AN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL APPEARS TO
HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN THE SRN END OF THIS LINE. NRN PORTIONS OF THIS
LINEAR SYSTEM HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE LAST HOUR...BUT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CELLS TO THE SOUTHEAST /AS WELL AS THE TAIL-END
SUPERCELL/ ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. WHILE NOCTURNAL
COOLING HAS COMMENCED AND THE 00Z DDC RAOB SAMPLED SOME MLCIN AROUND
750-700 MB /INDICATIVE OF A MORE HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
TO THE EAST/...UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION AIDED BY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A VEERING 0-3-KM WIND PROFILE MAY MAINTAIN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY VIA DYNAMIC PRESSURE PERTURBATION PROCESSES.
INDEED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL /INCLUDING A 3-INCH REPORT/
IN SEWARD CO HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW 206. WHILE CELLS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS EAST...A LOCAL AREAL EXTENSION BY A TIER OF
COUNTIES EWD MAY BE NECESSARY IF CELLS MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT
INTENSITY.

..PICCA.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38760201 38750085 37840003 37169984 37090102 37370198
            38760201






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250216
KSZ000-250345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0752
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0916 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 206...

VALID 250216Z - 250345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 206 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AS WELL AS A TORNADO OR TWO...CONTINUES PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR
SRN PORTIONS OF WW 206.

DISCUSSION...THE 02Z WSR-88D MOSAIC EXHIBITS A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS
OVER SEWARD CO KS. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM WICHITA CO
TO STANTON CO /WITH AN EMBEDDED MESOVORTEX ON THE NRN END/ CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EWD. ADDITIONALLY...AN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL APPEARS TO
HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN THE SRN END OF THIS LINE. NRN PORTIONS OF THIS
LINEAR SYSTEM HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE LAST HOUR...BUT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CELLS TO THE SOUTHEAST /AS WELL AS THE TAIL-END
SUPERCELL/ ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. WHILE NOCTURNAL
COOLING HAS COMMENCED AND THE 00Z DDC RAOB SAMPLED SOME MLCIN AROUND
750-700 MB /INDICATIVE OF A MORE HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
TO THE EAST/...UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION AIDED BY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A VEERING 0-3-KM WIND PROFILE MAY MAINTAIN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY VIA DYNAMIC PRESSURE PERTURBATION PROCESSES.
INDEED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL /INCLUDING A 3-INCH REPORT/
IN SEWARD CO HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW 206. WHILE CELLS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS EAST...A LOCAL AREAL EXTENSION BY A TIER OF
COUNTIES EWD MAY BE NECESSARY IF CELLS MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT
INTENSITY.

..PICCA.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38760201 38750085 37840003 37169984 37090102 37370198
            38760201





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250216
KSZ000-250345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0752
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0916 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 206...

VALID 250216Z - 250345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 206 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AS WELL AS A TORNADO OR TWO...CONTINUES PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR
SRN PORTIONS OF WW 206.

DISCUSSION...THE 02Z WSR-88D MOSAIC EXHIBITS A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS
OVER SEWARD CO KS. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF CONVECTION FROM WICHITA CO
TO STANTON CO /WITH AN EMBEDDED MESOVORTEX ON THE NRN END/ CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EWD. ADDITIONALLY...AN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL APPEARS TO
HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN THE SRN END OF THIS LINE. NRN PORTIONS OF THIS
LINEAR SYSTEM HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE LAST HOUR...BUT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CELLS TO THE SOUTHEAST /AS WELL AS THE TAIL-END
SUPERCELL/ ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. WHILE NOCTURNAL
COOLING HAS COMMENCED AND THE 00Z DDC RAOB SAMPLED SOME MLCIN AROUND
750-700 MB /INDICATIVE OF A MORE HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
TO THE EAST/...UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION AIDED BY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A VEERING 0-3-KM WIND PROFILE MAY MAINTAIN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY VIA DYNAMIC PRESSURE PERTURBATION PROCESSES.
INDEED...SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL /INCLUDING A 3-INCH REPORT/
IN SEWARD CO HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT
CONTINUES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW 206. WHILE CELLS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS EAST...A LOCAL AREAL EXTENSION BY A TIER OF
COUNTIES EWD MAY BE NECESSARY IF CELLS MAINTAIN THEIR CURRENT
INTENSITY.

..PICCA.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38760201 38750085 37840003 37169984 37090102 37370198
            38760201






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250141
ILZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-250245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0841 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL TO FAR
WESTERN KY/TN AND NORTHEAST AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 205...

VALID 250141Z - 250245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 205 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...MAIN SEVERE/TORNADO RISK WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 205 SHOULD
REMAIN SEMI-FOCUSED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO
SOUTHWEST IL THROUGH MID-EVENING INCLUDING AREAS TO THE SOUTH/EAST
OF ST LOUIS. TORNADO WATCH 205 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A TEMPORAL WATCH EXTENSION COULD BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BEYOND 03Z.

DISCUSSION...SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER ROUGHLY 30-50 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ST LOUIS AREA AS 830
PM CDT/130Z. THESE ONGOING STORMS AND OTHERS IN THIS GENERAL
VICINITY...TO THE NORTHEAST OF NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING
CLUSTERS/BANDS CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MO/WESTERN KY...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO POSE THE MAIN SEVERE/SOME TORNADO RISK ACROSS FAR
EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHWEST IL. LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BACKED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...WITH A RELATED INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL SRH...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST 200
M2/S2 BASED ON ADJUSTED ST LOUIS/PADUCAH WSR-88V VWP DATA. THIS
ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME TORNADO
THREAT PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME WHILE SOME
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE PARTICULARLY WITH THE
MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHEASTWARD-BOWING SEGMENTS.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   37479054 38609069 39149040 39428908 38598863 37668863
            34788879 34378903 34949008 36789020 37479054





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250141
ILZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-250245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0841 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHWEST IL TO FAR
WESTERN KY/TN AND NORTHEAST AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 205...

VALID 250141Z - 250245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 205 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...MAIN SEVERE/TORNADO RISK WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 205 SHOULD
REMAIN SEMI-FOCUSED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO
SOUTHWEST IL THROUGH MID-EVENING INCLUDING AREAS TO THE SOUTH/EAST
OF ST LOUIS. TORNADO WATCH 205 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A TEMPORAL WATCH EXTENSION COULD BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION BEYOND 03Z.

DISCUSSION...SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER ROUGHLY 30-50 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ST LOUIS AREA AS 830
PM CDT/130Z. THESE ONGOING STORMS AND OTHERS IN THIS GENERAL
VICINITY...TO THE NORTHEAST OF NORTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING
CLUSTERS/BANDS CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MO/WESTERN KY...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO POSE THE MAIN SEVERE/SOME TORNADO RISK ACROSS FAR
EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHWEST IL. LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BACKED MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...WITH A RELATED INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL SRH...WITH EFFECTIVE SRH ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST 200
M2/S2 BASED ON ADJUSTED ST LOUIS/PADUCAH WSR-88V VWP DATA. THIS
ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME TORNADO
THREAT PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME WHILE SOME
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE PARTICULARLY WITH THE
MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHEASTWARD-BOWING SEGMENTS.

..GUYER.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   37479054 38609069 39149040 39428908 38598863 37668863
            34788879 34378903 34949008 36789020 37479054





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250057
OKZ000-TXZ000-250230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PANHANDLES AND FAR NORTHWEST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 250057Z - 250230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TO THE SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 206 ACROSS EASTERN
CO/WESTERN KS...MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWEST OK.

DISCUSSION...WHILE MUCH OF THE CU FIELD SINCE AFTERNOON HAS LARGELY
WANED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
PAST HOUR REFLECTS A SUSTENANCE/TOWERING OF THE CU FIELD
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE GUYMON OK/PERRYTON TX VICINITIES IN THE OK
PANHANDLE/NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...WITH SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE LIBERAL KS VICINITY. NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAS TENDED TO
INCREASE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF A DRYLINE WHERE THIS DEVELOPMENT
IS OCCURRING. CONTINUED INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS COULD PROMPT AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE FOR A LARGE HAIL/SOME TORNADO
RISK...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING WITH A RELATED INCREASE IN SRH.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   36860158 36819987 36079967 35500028 35920117 36860158





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250057
OKZ000-TXZ000-250230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PANHANDLES AND FAR NORTHWEST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 250057Z - 250230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TO THE SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 206 ACROSS EASTERN
CO/WESTERN KS...MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWEST OK.

DISCUSSION...WHILE MUCH OF THE CU FIELD SINCE AFTERNOON HAS LARGELY
WANED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
PAST HOUR REFLECTS A SUSTENANCE/TOWERING OF THE CU FIELD
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE GUYMON OK/PERRYTON TX VICINITIES IN THE OK
PANHANDLE/NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...WITH SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE LIBERAL KS VICINITY. NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAS TENDED TO
INCREASE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF A DRYLINE WHERE THIS DEVELOPMENT
IS OCCURRING. CONTINUED INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS COULD PROMPT AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE FOR A LARGE HAIL/SOME TORNADO
RISK...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING WITH A RELATED INCREASE IN SRH.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   36860158 36819987 36079967 35500028 35920117 36860158





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250057
OKZ000-TXZ000-250230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PANHANDLES AND FAR NORTHWEST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 250057Z - 250230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TO THE SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 206 ACROSS EASTERN
CO/WESTERN KS...MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWEST OK.

DISCUSSION...WHILE MUCH OF THE CU FIELD SINCE AFTERNOON HAS LARGELY
WANED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
PAST HOUR REFLECTS A SUSTENANCE/TOWERING OF THE CU FIELD
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE GUYMON OK/PERRYTON TX VICINITIES IN THE OK
PANHANDLE/NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...WITH SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE LIBERAL KS VICINITY. NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAS TENDED TO
INCREASE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF A DRYLINE WHERE THIS DEVELOPMENT
IS OCCURRING. CONTINUED INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS COULD PROMPT AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE FOR A LARGE HAIL/SOME TORNADO
RISK...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING WITH A RELATED INCREASE IN SRH.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   36860158 36819987 36079967 35500028 35920117 36860158





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250057
OKZ000-TXZ000-250230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PANHANDLES AND FAR NORTHWEST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 250057Z - 250230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TO THE SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 206 ACROSS EASTERN
CO/WESTERN KS...MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWEST OK.

DISCUSSION...WHILE MUCH OF THE CU FIELD SINCE AFTERNOON HAS LARGELY
WANED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
PAST HOUR REFLECTS A SUSTENANCE/TOWERING OF THE CU FIELD
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE GUYMON OK/PERRYTON TX VICINITIES IN THE OK
PANHANDLE/NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...WITH SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE LIBERAL KS VICINITY. NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAS TENDED TO
INCREASE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF A DRYLINE WHERE THIS DEVELOPMENT
IS OCCURRING. CONTINUED INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS COULD PROMPT AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE FOR A LARGE HAIL/SOME TORNADO
RISK...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING WITH A RELATED INCREASE IN SRH.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   36860158 36819987 36079967 35500028 35920117 36860158






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250057
OKZ000-TXZ000-250230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PANHANDLES AND FAR NORTHWEST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 250057Z - 250230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TO THE SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 206 ACROSS EASTERN
CO/WESTERN KS...MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWEST OK.

DISCUSSION...WHILE MUCH OF THE CU FIELD SINCE AFTERNOON HAS LARGELY
WANED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
PAST HOUR REFLECTS A SUSTENANCE/TOWERING OF THE CU FIELD
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE GUYMON OK/PERRYTON TX VICINITIES IN THE OK
PANHANDLE/NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...WITH SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE LIBERAL KS VICINITY. NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAS TENDED TO
INCREASE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF A DRYLINE WHERE THIS DEVELOPMENT
IS OCCURRING. CONTINUED INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS COULD PROMPT AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE FOR A LARGE HAIL/SOME TORNADO
RISK...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING WITH A RELATED INCREASE IN SRH.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   36860158 36819987 36079967 35500028 35920117 36860158






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250057
OKZ000-TXZ000-250230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PANHANDLES AND FAR NORTHWEST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 250057Z - 250230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TO THE SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 206 ACROSS EASTERN
CO/WESTERN KS...MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWEST OK.

DISCUSSION...WHILE MUCH OF THE CU FIELD SINCE AFTERNOON HAS LARGELY
WANED ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
PAST HOUR REFLECTS A SUSTENANCE/TOWERING OF THE CU FIELD
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE GUYMON OK/PERRYTON TX VICINITIES IN THE OK
PANHANDLE/NORTHEAST TX PANHANDLE...WITH SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE LIBERAL KS VICINITY. NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAS TENDED TO
INCREASE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
PREVALENT TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF A DRYLINE WHERE THIS DEVELOPMENT
IS OCCURRING. CONTINUED INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS COULD PROMPT AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE FOR A LARGE HAIL/SOME TORNADO
RISK...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING WITH A RELATED INCREASE IN SRH.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   36860158 36819987 36079967 35500028 35920117 36860158





000
ACUS01 KWNS 250051
SWODY1
SPC AC 250049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY...AND MUCH OF ILLINOIS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE LOWER PLAINS OF KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA...CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...A BELT OF 30-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO NOSE ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN MISSOURI...WESTERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...ALLOWING FOR ONLY RATHER MODEST CAPE OF 500
TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...MOMENTUM/VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE JET COULD STILL ENHANCE ONGOING CONVECTION NOW ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO/THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND ALONG A WARM
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
 AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO APPEARS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT.  OTHERWISE...LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
ONGOING NARROW LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THROUGH THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME.  THE MOST
SUBSTANTIVE AND LONGER LASTING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE A CONTINUING RISK FOR TORNADOES...PROBABLY WILL EXIST ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION.
THIS IS WHERE WARM ADVECTION AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME ENHANCED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...AND A
SOMEWHAT BETTER INFLOW OF MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR WILL PERSIST.

OTHERWISE...MOISTURE RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BENEATH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL AT LEAST CONTRIBUTE TO AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...AS A SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

..KERR.. 05/25/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 250051
SWODY1
SPC AC 250049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY...AND MUCH OF ILLINOIS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE LOWER PLAINS OF KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA...CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...A BELT OF 30-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO NOSE ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN MISSOURI...WESTERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...ALLOWING FOR ONLY RATHER MODEST CAPE OF 500
TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...MOMENTUM/VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE JET COULD STILL ENHANCE ONGOING CONVECTION NOW ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO/THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND ALONG A WARM
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
 AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO APPEARS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT.  OTHERWISE...LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
ONGOING NARROW LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THROUGH THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME.  THE MOST
SUBSTANTIVE AND LONGER LASTING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE A CONTINUING RISK FOR TORNADOES...PROBABLY WILL EXIST ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION.
THIS IS WHERE WARM ADVECTION AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME ENHANCED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...AND A
SOMEWHAT BETTER INFLOW OF MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR WILL PERSIST.

OTHERWISE...MOISTURE RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BENEATH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL AT LEAST CONTRIBUTE TO AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...AS A SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

..KERR.. 05/25/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 250051
SWODY1
SPC AC 250049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY...AND MUCH OF ILLINOIS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE LOWER PLAINS OF KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA...CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...A BELT OF 30-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO NOSE ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN MISSOURI...WESTERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...ALLOWING FOR ONLY RATHER MODEST CAPE OF 500
TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...MOMENTUM/VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE JET COULD STILL ENHANCE ONGOING CONVECTION NOW ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO/THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND ALONG A WARM
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
 AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO APPEARS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT.  OTHERWISE...LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
ONGOING NARROW LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THROUGH THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME.  THE MOST
SUBSTANTIVE AND LONGER LASTING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE A CONTINUING RISK FOR TORNADOES...PROBABLY WILL EXIST ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION.
THIS IS WHERE WARM ADVECTION AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME ENHANCED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...AND A
SOMEWHAT BETTER INFLOW OF MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR WILL PERSIST.

OTHERWISE...MOISTURE RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BENEATH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL AT LEAST CONTRIBUTE TO AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...AS A SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

..KERR.. 05/25/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 250051
SWODY1
SPC AC 250049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY...AND MUCH OF ILLINOIS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE LOWER PLAINS OF KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA...CONTINUES TO PROGRESS NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...A BELT OF 30-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO NOSE ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN MISSOURI...WESTERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...ALLOWING FOR ONLY RATHER MODEST CAPE OF 500
TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...MOMENTUM/VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE JET COULD STILL ENHANCE ONGOING CONVECTION NOW ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO/THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND ALONG A WARM
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
 AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO APPEARS
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT.  OTHERWISE...LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
ONGOING NARROW LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THROUGH THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME.  THE MOST
SUBSTANTIVE AND LONGER LASTING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...WHICH MAY
INCLUDE A CONTINUING RISK FOR TORNADOES...PROBABLY WILL EXIST ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION.
THIS IS WHERE WARM ADVECTION AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME ENHANCED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...AND A
SOMEWHAT BETTER INFLOW OF MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR WILL PERSIST.

OTHERWISE...MOISTURE RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BENEATH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL AT LEAST CONTRIBUTE TO AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...AS A SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE PROGRESSES ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

..KERR.. 05/25/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250042
MSZ000-LAZ000-250215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0749
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA AND SRN/WRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 204...

VALID 250042Z - 250215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 204 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO...AS WELL AS LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER WW EXPIRATION.
LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS AND BROKEN BANDS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
CONVECTION PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WW 204 THIS EVENING...IN A
REGIME OF VERY MOIST CONFLUENT FLOW. 1-MIN SUPER RAPID SCAN GOES
IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES A FEW MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN FAR S-CNTRL LA
AS WELL AS SWRN MS...WHICH ARE BEING AIDED BY AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW DEPARTING TO THE
NORTH AS WELL AS THE ONSET OF MODEST NOCTURNAL COOLING...A GENERAL
DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS FORECAST THIS EVENING.
NONETHELESS...SOME MAINTENANCE OR EVEN SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF
850-700-MB FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
EXTEND THE SEVERE THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE CURRENT WW
EXPIRATION. AS SUCH...LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE REQUIRED TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...AS WELL AS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
THIS EVENING.

..PICCA.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29679192 33489082 32698978 30398867 28798932 29679192






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250042
MSZ000-LAZ000-250215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0749
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA AND SRN/WRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 204...

VALID 250042Z - 250215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 204 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO...AS WELL AS LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER WW EXPIRATION.
LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS AND BROKEN BANDS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
CONVECTION PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WW 204 THIS EVENING...IN A
REGIME OF VERY MOIST CONFLUENT FLOW. 1-MIN SUPER RAPID SCAN GOES
IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES A FEW MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN FAR S-CNTRL LA
AS WELL AS SWRN MS...WHICH ARE BEING AIDED BY AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW DEPARTING TO THE
NORTH AS WELL AS THE ONSET OF MODEST NOCTURNAL COOLING...A GENERAL
DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS FORECAST THIS EVENING.
NONETHELESS...SOME MAINTENANCE OR EVEN SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF
850-700-MB FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
EXTEND THE SEVERE THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE CURRENT WW
EXPIRATION. AS SUCH...LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE REQUIRED TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...AS WELL AS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
THIS EVENING.

..PICCA.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29679192 33489082 32698978 30398867 28798932 29679192





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250042
MSZ000-LAZ000-250215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0749
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA AND SRN/WRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 204...

VALID 250042Z - 250215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 204 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO...AS WELL AS LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER WW EXPIRATION.
LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS AND BROKEN BANDS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
CONVECTION PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WW 204 THIS EVENING...IN A
REGIME OF VERY MOIST CONFLUENT FLOW. 1-MIN SUPER RAPID SCAN GOES
IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES A FEW MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN FAR S-CNTRL LA
AS WELL AS SWRN MS...WHICH ARE BEING AIDED BY AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW DEPARTING TO THE
NORTH AS WELL AS THE ONSET OF MODEST NOCTURNAL COOLING...A GENERAL
DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS FORECAST THIS EVENING.
NONETHELESS...SOME MAINTENANCE OR EVEN SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF
850-700-MB FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
EXTEND THE SEVERE THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE CURRENT WW
EXPIRATION. AS SUCH...LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE REQUIRED TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...AS WELL AS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
THIS EVENING.

..PICCA.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29679192 33489082 32698978 30398867 28798932 29679192






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250042
MSZ000-LAZ000-250215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0749
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA AND SRN/WRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 204...

VALID 250042Z - 250215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 204 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO...AS WELL AS LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER WW EXPIRATION.
LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS AND BROKEN BANDS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
CONVECTION PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WW 204 THIS EVENING...IN A
REGIME OF VERY MOIST CONFLUENT FLOW. 1-MIN SUPER RAPID SCAN GOES
IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES A FEW MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN FAR S-CNTRL LA
AS WELL AS SWRN MS...WHICH ARE BEING AIDED BY AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW DEPARTING TO THE
NORTH AS WELL AS THE ONSET OF MODEST NOCTURNAL COOLING...A GENERAL
DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS FORECAST THIS EVENING.
NONETHELESS...SOME MAINTENANCE OR EVEN SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF
850-700-MB FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
EXTEND THE SEVERE THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE CURRENT WW
EXPIRATION. AS SUCH...LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE REQUIRED TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...AS WELL AS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
THIS EVENING.

..PICCA.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29679192 33489082 32698978 30398867 28798932 29679192





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250042
MSZ000-LAZ000-250215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0749
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA AND SRN/WRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 204...

VALID 250042Z - 250215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 204 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO...AS WELL AS LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER WW EXPIRATION.
LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS AND BROKEN BANDS OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
CONVECTION PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WW 204 THIS EVENING...IN A
REGIME OF VERY MOIST CONFLUENT FLOW. 1-MIN SUPER RAPID SCAN GOES
IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES A FEW MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN FAR S-CNTRL LA
AS WELL AS SWRN MS...WHICH ARE BEING AIDED BY AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW DEPARTING TO THE
NORTH AS WELL AS THE ONSET OF MODEST NOCTURNAL COOLING...A GENERAL
DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS FORECAST THIS EVENING.
NONETHELESS...SOME MAINTENANCE OR EVEN SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF
850-700-MB FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD
EXTEND THE SEVERE THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE CURRENT WW
EXPIRATION. AS SUCH...LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE REQUIRED TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...AS WELL AS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
THIS EVENING.

..PICCA.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29679192 33489082 32698978 30398867 28798932 29679192





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250005
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-250200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0748
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0705 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN CO AND WRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 206...

VALID 250005Z - 250200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 206 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. THE THREAT
FOR A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO PERSISTS.

DISCUSSION...TWO REGIMES OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE TSTMS ARE PROGRESSING
EWD ACROSS FAR ERN CO INTO WRN KS AS OF 2345Z. AT PRESENT...THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER BACA AND PROWERS COS...WHERE
SEVERAL SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES HAVE PERSISTED. THE HIGHEST THREAT
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...AS STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL FAVOR MORE
ORGANIZED/LONG-LIVED UPDRAFTS IN THIS AREA. FURTHERMORE...BACKED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THESE CELLS WILL YIELD EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES
ON THE ORDER OF 100-150 M2/S2. THEREFORE...A TORNADIC THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WRN KS /ESPECIALLY SWRN PORTIONS/ OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. MOREOVER...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /OBSERVED IN THE 00Z
AMA RAOB/ OVERLYING A ZONE OF ADEQUATE HEATING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. IN COMBINATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION...THIS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL
THIS EVENING.

..PICCA.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   37060188 37460268 40240254 39380032 37300067 37060188





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250005
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-250200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0748
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0705 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN CO AND WRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 206...

VALID 250005Z - 250200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 206 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. THE THREAT
FOR A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO PERSISTS.

DISCUSSION...TWO REGIMES OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE TSTMS ARE PROGRESSING
EWD ACROSS FAR ERN CO INTO WRN KS AS OF 2345Z. AT PRESENT...THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER BACA AND PROWERS COS...WHERE
SEVERAL SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES HAVE PERSISTED. THE HIGHEST THREAT
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...AS STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL FAVOR MORE
ORGANIZED/LONG-LIVED UPDRAFTS IN THIS AREA. FURTHERMORE...BACKED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THESE CELLS WILL YIELD EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES
ON THE ORDER OF 100-150 M2/S2. THEREFORE...A TORNADIC THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO WRN KS /ESPECIALLY SWRN PORTIONS/ OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. MOREOVER...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /OBSERVED IN THE 00Z
AMA RAOB/ OVERLYING A ZONE OF ADEQUATE HEATING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. IN COMBINATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION...THIS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE
WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL
THIS EVENING.

..PICCA.. 05/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   37060188 37460268 40240254 39380032 37300067 37060188





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242341
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-250115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN IL/FAR EASTERN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 207...

VALID 242341Z - 250115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 207 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN IL/FAR EASTERN IA THROUGH MID-EVENING...WITH SOME SEVERE
HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. TORNADO WATCH 207
CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z.

DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ROUGHLY WEST-EAST FROM EASTERN
IA ACROSS NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS EVENING...EXTENDING IN AREAS ALONG
I-88/JUST SOUTH OF ROCKFORD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTH
CHICAGO METRO AREA. WHILE DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ADEQUATE FOR
A TORNADO RISK WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CENTRAL IL...A SOMEWHAT
WARMER/MORE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS. THE MAIN POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL-RELATED TORNADOES LIKELY EXISTS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN IL WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR/CROSSING THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWARD-DRIFTING WARM FRONT. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM QUAD
CITIES/CHICAGO SUGGESTS 0-1 KM SRH MAY BE AS HIGH AS 200-300
M2/S2...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK PARTICULARLY THROUGH
MID-EVENING WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST/LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S F.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40449155 41489157 42319097 42178930 41458812 39578995
            40449155





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242341
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-250115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN IL/FAR EASTERN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 207...

VALID 242341Z - 250115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 207 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN IL/FAR EASTERN IA THROUGH MID-EVENING...WITH SOME SEVERE
HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. TORNADO WATCH 207
CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z.

DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ROUGHLY WEST-EAST FROM EASTERN
IA ACROSS NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS EVENING...EXTENDING IN AREAS ALONG
I-88/JUST SOUTH OF ROCKFORD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTH
CHICAGO METRO AREA. WHILE DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ADEQUATE FOR
A TORNADO RISK WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CENTRAL IL...A SOMEWHAT
WARMER/MORE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS. THE MAIN POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL-RELATED TORNADOES LIKELY EXISTS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN IL WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR/CROSSING THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWARD-DRIFTING WARM FRONT. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM QUAD
CITIES/CHICAGO SUGGESTS 0-1 KM SRH MAY BE AS HIGH AS 200-300
M2/S2...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK PARTICULARLY THROUGH
MID-EVENING WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST/LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S F.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40449155 41489157 42319097 42178930 41458812 39578995
            40449155





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242341
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-250115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN IL/FAR EASTERN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 207...

VALID 242341Z - 250115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 207 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN IL/FAR EASTERN IA THROUGH MID-EVENING...WITH SOME SEVERE
HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. TORNADO WATCH 207
CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z.

DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ROUGHLY WEST-EAST FROM EASTERN
IA ACROSS NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS EVENING...EXTENDING IN AREAS ALONG
I-88/JUST SOUTH OF ROCKFORD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTH
CHICAGO METRO AREA. WHILE DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ADEQUATE FOR
A TORNADO RISK WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CENTRAL IL...A SOMEWHAT
WARMER/MORE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS. THE MAIN POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL-RELATED TORNADOES LIKELY EXISTS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN IL WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR/CROSSING THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWARD-DRIFTING WARM FRONT. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM QUAD
CITIES/CHICAGO SUGGESTS 0-1 KM SRH MAY BE AS HIGH AS 200-300
M2/S2...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK PARTICULARLY THROUGH
MID-EVENING WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST/LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S F.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40449155 41489157 42319097 42178930 41458812 39578995
            40449155






000
ACUS11 KWNS 242342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242341
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-250115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN IL/FAR EASTERN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 207...

VALID 242341Z - 250115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 207 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN IL/FAR EASTERN IA THROUGH MID-EVENING...WITH SOME SEVERE
HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. TORNADO WATCH 207
CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z.

DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ROUGHLY WEST-EAST FROM EASTERN
IA ACROSS NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS EVENING...EXTENDING IN AREAS ALONG
I-88/JUST SOUTH OF ROCKFORD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTH
CHICAGO METRO AREA. WHILE DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ADEQUATE FOR
A TORNADO RISK WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CENTRAL IL...A SOMEWHAT
WARMER/MORE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS. THE MAIN POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL-RELATED TORNADOES LIKELY EXISTS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN IL WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR/CROSSING THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWARD-DRIFTING WARM FRONT. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM QUAD
CITIES/CHICAGO SUGGESTS 0-1 KM SRH MAY BE AS HIGH AS 200-300
M2/S2...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK PARTICULARLY THROUGH
MID-EVENING WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST/LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S F.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40449155 41489157 42319097 42178930 41458812 39578995
            40449155





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242341
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-250115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN IL/FAR EASTERN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 207...

VALID 242341Z - 250115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 207 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN IL/FAR EASTERN IA THROUGH MID-EVENING...WITH SOME SEVERE
HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. TORNADO WATCH 207
CONTINUES UNTIL 06Z.

DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ROUGHLY WEST-EAST FROM EASTERN
IA ACROSS NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS EVENING...EXTENDING IN AREAS ALONG
I-88/JUST SOUTH OF ROCKFORD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST/SOUTH
CHICAGO METRO AREA. WHILE DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ADEQUATE FOR
A TORNADO RISK WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CENTRAL IL...A SOMEWHAT
WARMER/MORE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS. THE MAIN POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL-RELATED TORNADOES LIKELY EXISTS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN IL WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR/CROSSING THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWARD-DRIFTING WARM FRONT. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM QUAD
CITIES/CHICAGO SUGGESTS 0-1 KM SRH MAY BE AS HIGH AS 200-300
M2/S2...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK PARTICULARLY THROUGH
MID-EVENING WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST/LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT WHERE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S F.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40449155 41489157 42319097 42178930 41458812 39578995
            40449155






000
ACUS11 KWNS 242305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242304
TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-250100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0604 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN MO AND SOUTHWEST IL/FAR EASTERN
AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 203...205...

VALID 242304Z - 250100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 203...205...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE RISK CONTINUES PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST/CENTRAL MO...FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST IL...AS WELL AS
NORTHEAST AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS. TORNADO WATCHES 203 AND 205
CONTINUE UNTIL 01Z AND 03Z RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...AMID LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE OF SEMI-BROKEN
BANDS OF STORMS INCLUDING A FEW EMBEDDED/LINE-LEADING DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AND SMALL-SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST AR/NORTHERN MO/WESTERN MS AND
FAR SOUTHEAST MO THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MOST PREVALENT CONCERN...BUT A TORNADO RISK
EXISTS PARTICULARLY WITH LINE-LEADING/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COINCIDENT WITH ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AIR MASS.

FARTHER NORTH...SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MO AND
ADJACENT FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST IL. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ALREADY ADEQUATE
PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA FOR SOME TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS/TORNADO
RISK WITHIN A MODERATELY MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL REGIME.
HOWEVER...A MODESTLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER/SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INCREASE IN TANDEM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS COULD LEAD
TO A SOMEWHAT INCREASED RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW TORNADOES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST MO AND
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT IL/KY/NORTHWEST TN...WITH A TREND OF BACKING
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS ALREADY NOTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37059242 38499197 40059142 38958966 37868928 36288910
            35418863 33928892 34289072 35879092 36569119 37059242





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242304
TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-250100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0604 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN MO AND SOUTHWEST IL/FAR EASTERN
AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 203...205...

VALID 242304Z - 250100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 203...205...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE RISK CONTINUES PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST/CENTRAL MO...FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST IL...AS WELL AS
NORTHEAST AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS. TORNADO WATCHES 203 AND 205
CONTINUE UNTIL 01Z AND 03Z RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...AMID LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE OF SEMI-BROKEN
BANDS OF STORMS INCLUDING A FEW EMBEDDED/LINE-LEADING DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AND SMALL-SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST AR/NORTHERN MO/WESTERN MS AND
FAR SOUTHEAST MO THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MOST PREVALENT CONCERN...BUT A TORNADO RISK
EXISTS PARTICULARLY WITH LINE-LEADING/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COINCIDENT WITH ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AIR MASS.

FARTHER NORTH...SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MO AND
ADJACENT FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST IL. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ALREADY ADEQUATE
PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA FOR SOME TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS/TORNADO
RISK WITHIN A MODERATELY MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL REGIME.
HOWEVER...A MODESTLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER/SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INCREASE IN TANDEM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS COULD LEAD
TO A SOMEWHAT INCREASED RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW TORNADOES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST MO AND
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT IL/KY/NORTHWEST TN...WITH A TREND OF BACKING
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS ALREADY NOTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37059242 38499197 40059142 38958966 37868928 36288910
            35418863 33928892 34289072 35879092 36569119 37059242





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242304
TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-250100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0604 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN MO AND SOUTHWEST IL/FAR EASTERN
AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 203...205...

VALID 242304Z - 250100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 203...205...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE RISK CONTINUES PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST/CENTRAL MO...FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST IL...AS WELL AS
NORTHEAST AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS. TORNADO WATCHES 203 AND 205
CONTINUE UNTIL 01Z AND 03Z RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...AMID LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE OF SEMI-BROKEN
BANDS OF STORMS INCLUDING A FEW EMBEDDED/LINE-LEADING DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AND SMALL-SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST AR/NORTHERN MO/WESTERN MS AND
FAR SOUTHEAST MO THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MOST PREVALENT CONCERN...BUT A TORNADO RISK
EXISTS PARTICULARLY WITH LINE-LEADING/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COINCIDENT WITH ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AIR MASS.

FARTHER NORTH...SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MO AND
ADJACENT FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST IL. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ALREADY ADEQUATE
PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA FOR SOME TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS/TORNADO
RISK WITHIN A MODERATELY MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL REGIME.
HOWEVER...A MODESTLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER/SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INCREASE IN TANDEM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS COULD LEAD
TO A SOMEWHAT INCREASED RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW TORNADOES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST MO AND
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT IL/KY/NORTHWEST TN...WITH A TREND OF BACKING
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS ALREADY NOTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37059242 38499197 40059142 38958966 37868928 36288910
            35418863 33928892 34289072 35879092 36569119 37059242





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242304
TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-250100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0604 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN MO AND SOUTHWEST IL/FAR EASTERN
AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 203...205...

VALID 242304Z - 250100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 203...205...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE RISK CONTINUES PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST/CENTRAL MO...FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST IL...AS WELL AS
NORTHEAST AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS. TORNADO WATCHES 203 AND 205
CONTINUE UNTIL 01Z AND 03Z RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...AMID LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE OF SEMI-BROKEN
BANDS OF STORMS INCLUDING A FEW EMBEDDED/LINE-LEADING DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AND SMALL-SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST AR/NORTHERN MO/WESTERN MS AND
FAR SOUTHEAST MO THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MOST PREVALENT CONCERN...BUT A TORNADO RISK
EXISTS PARTICULARLY WITH LINE-LEADING/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COINCIDENT WITH ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AIR MASS.

FARTHER NORTH...SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MO AND
ADJACENT FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST IL. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ALREADY ADEQUATE
PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA FOR SOME TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS/TORNADO
RISK WITHIN A MODERATELY MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL REGIME.
HOWEVER...A MODESTLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER/SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INCREASE IN TANDEM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS COULD LEAD
TO A SOMEWHAT INCREASED RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW TORNADOES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST MO AND
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT IL/KY/NORTHWEST TN...WITH A TREND OF BACKING
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS ALREADY NOTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37059242 38499197 40059142 38958966 37868928 36288910
            35418863 33928892 34289072 35879092 36569119 37059242






000
ACUS11 KWNS 242305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242304
TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-250100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0604 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN MO AND SOUTHWEST IL/FAR EASTERN
AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 203...205...

VALID 242304Z - 250100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 203...205...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE RISK CONTINUES PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST/CENTRAL MO...FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST IL...AS WELL AS
NORTHEAST AR/WESTERN TN/NORTHERN MS. TORNADO WATCHES 203 AND 205
CONTINUE UNTIL 01Z AND 03Z RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...AMID LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE OF SEMI-BROKEN
BANDS OF STORMS INCLUDING A FEW EMBEDDED/LINE-LEADING DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AND SMALL-SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST AR/NORTHERN MO/WESTERN MS AND
FAR SOUTHEAST MO THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MOST PREVALENT CONCERN...BUT A TORNADO RISK
EXISTS PARTICULARLY WITH LINE-LEADING/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COINCIDENT WITH ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/MOIST AIR MASS.

FARTHER NORTH...SOMEWHAT MORE ISOLATED STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MO AND
ADJACENT FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST IL. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ALREADY ADEQUATE
PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA FOR SOME TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS/TORNADO
RISK WITHIN A MODERATELY MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL REGIME.
HOWEVER...A MODESTLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER/SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INCREASE IN TANDEM WITH STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS COULD LEAD
TO A SOMEWHAT INCREASED RISK FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW TORNADOES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST MO AND
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT IL/KY/NORTHWEST TN...WITH A TREND OF BACKING
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS ALREADY NOTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS FAR EASTERN MO/SOUTHERN IL.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37059242 38499197 40059142 38958966 37868928 36288910
            35418863 33928892 34289072 35879092 36569119 37059242





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242203
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-250000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0745
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN LA AND SRN/WRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 204...

VALID 242203Z - 250000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 204 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WW.

DISCUSSION...ACROSS WW 204...NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE EVOLVED
AHEAD OF A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE TSTMS / ASSOCIATED LINE
OF CONFLUENCE STRETCHING FROM SERN AR SWD TO S-CNTRL LA. MANY OF
THESE CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED WEAK ROTATION...AND THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED OR BOLSTERED SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AS FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BACKING OF THE WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 1-KM THROUGH 01Z. IN TURN...EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ENHANCED SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN COMBINATION WITH
VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /E.G. MEAN MIXING RATIOS UPWARDS OF
15-16 G PER KG/ AND SOME INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF
CONFLUENCE...THIS WIND PROFILE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS WELL AS SOME DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

..PICCA.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29119126 29469210 30699206 32599178 33109153 33169049
            32628972 30688858 30358852 29828890 28848900 29119126





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242203
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-250000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0745
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN LA AND SRN/WRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 204...

VALID 242203Z - 250000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 204 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WW.

DISCUSSION...ACROSS WW 204...NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE EVOLVED
AHEAD OF A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE TSTMS / ASSOCIATED LINE
OF CONFLUENCE STRETCHING FROM SERN AR SWD TO S-CNTRL LA. MANY OF
THESE CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED WEAK ROTATION...AND THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED OR BOLSTERED SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AS FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BACKING OF THE WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 1-KM THROUGH 01Z. IN TURN...EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ENHANCED SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN COMBINATION WITH
VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /E.G. MEAN MIXING RATIOS UPWARDS OF
15-16 G PER KG/ AND SOME INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF
CONFLUENCE...THIS WIND PROFILE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS WELL AS SOME DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

..PICCA.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29119126 29469210 30699206 32599178 33109153 33169049
            32628972 30688858 30358852 29828890 28848900 29119126





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242203
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242203
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-250000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0745
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN LA AND SRN/WRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 204...

VALID 242203Z - 250000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 204 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ACROSS THE WW.

DISCUSSION...ACROSS WW 204...NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE EVOLVED
AHEAD OF A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG-TO-SEVERE TSTMS / ASSOCIATED LINE
OF CONFLUENCE STRETCHING FROM SERN AR SWD TO S-CNTRL LA. MANY OF
THESE CELLS HAVE EXHIBITED WEAK ROTATION...AND THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
IS LIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED OR BOLSTERED SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AS FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BACKING OF THE WINDS IN THE
LOWEST 1-KM THROUGH 01Z. IN TURN...EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ENHANCED SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN COMBINATION WITH
VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /E.G. MEAN MIXING RATIOS UPWARDS OF
15-16 G PER KG/ AND SOME INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF
CONFLUENCE...THIS WIND PROFILE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS WELL AS SOME DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

..PICCA.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29119126 29469210 30699206 32599178 33109153 33169049
            32628972 30688858 30358852 29828890 28848900 29119126






000
ACUS11 KWNS 242034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242034
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-242130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IOWA...NWRN AND W-CNTRL IL...FAR NERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242034Z - 242130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND A BRIEF TORNADO
OR TWO MAY EXIST AS TSTMS ENCOUNTER A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS ERN
IA INTO NRN IL. A WW IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS SERN IA
INTO W-CNTRL IA COLOCATED WITH A LLJ CENTERED THROUGH MID-MS VALLEY.
MODEST DESTABILIZATION /200-500 J/KG/ IS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S...DESPITE POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. REGIONAL VWP DATA NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG WIND
PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 4 KM. GIVEN THE MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...A BRIEF LOCALLY ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT COULD
ACCOMPANY TSTMS AS THEY APPROACH/CROSS THE WARM FRONT...BUT FAST
MOTIONS SHOULD RESULT IN TSTMS QUICKLY MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY STORM
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   42328995 41978903 41098881 40248899 39979013 40459239
            41229292 41919280 42239235 42419150 42328995






000
ACUS11 KWNS 242034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242034
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-242130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IOWA...NWRN AND W-CNTRL IL...FAR NERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242034Z - 242130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND A BRIEF TORNADO
OR TWO MAY EXIST AS TSTMS ENCOUNTER A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS ERN
IA INTO NRN IL. A WW IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS SERN IA
INTO W-CNTRL IA COLOCATED WITH A LLJ CENTERED THROUGH MID-MS VALLEY.
MODEST DESTABILIZATION /200-500 J/KG/ IS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S...DESPITE POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. REGIONAL VWP DATA NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG WIND
PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 4 KM. GIVEN THE MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...A BRIEF LOCALLY ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT COULD
ACCOMPANY TSTMS AS THEY APPROACH/CROSS THE WARM FRONT...BUT FAST
MOTIONS SHOULD RESULT IN TSTMS QUICKLY MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY STORM
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   42328995 41978903 41098881 40248899 39979013 40459239
            41229292 41919280 42239235 42419150 42328995





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242034
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-242130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IOWA...NWRN AND W-CNTRL IL...FAR NERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242034Z - 242130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND A BRIEF TORNADO
OR TWO MAY EXIST AS TSTMS ENCOUNTER A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS ERN
IA INTO NRN IL. A WW IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS SERN IA
INTO W-CNTRL IA COLOCATED WITH A LLJ CENTERED THROUGH MID-MS VALLEY.
MODEST DESTABILIZATION /200-500 J/KG/ IS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S...DESPITE POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. REGIONAL VWP DATA NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG WIND
PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 4 KM. GIVEN THE MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...A BRIEF LOCALLY ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT COULD
ACCOMPANY TSTMS AS THEY APPROACH/CROSS THE WARM FRONT...BUT FAST
MOTIONS SHOULD RESULT IN TSTMS QUICKLY MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY STORM
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   42328995 41978903 41098881 40248899 39979013 40459239
            41229292 41919280 42239235 42419150 42328995






000
ACUS11 KWNS 242034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242034
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-242130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IOWA...NWRN AND W-CNTRL IL...FAR NERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242034Z - 242130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND A BRIEF TORNADO
OR TWO MAY EXIST AS TSTMS ENCOUNTER A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS ERN
IA INTO NRN IL. A WW IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS SERN IA
INTO W-CNTRL IA COLOCATED WITH A LLJ CENTERED THROUGH MID-MS VALLEY.
MODEST DESTABILIZATION /200-500 J/KG/ IS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S...DESPITE POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. REGIONAL VWP DATA NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG WIND
PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 4 KM. GIVEN THE MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...A BRIEF LOCALLY ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT COULD
ACCOMPANY TSTMS AS THEY APPROACH/CROSS THE WARM FRONT...BUT FAST
MOTIONS SHOULD RESULT IN TSTMS QUICKLY MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY STORM
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   42328995 41978903 41098881 40248899 39979013 40459239
            41229292 41919280 42239235 42419150 42328995





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242034
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-242130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IOWA...NWRN AND W-CNTRL IL...FAR NERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242034Z - 242130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND A BRIEF TORNADO
OR TWO MAY EXIST AS TSTMS ENCOUNTER A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS ERN
IA INTO NRN IL. A WW IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS SERN IA
INTO W-CNTRL IA COLOCATED WITH A LLJ CENTERED THROUGH MID-MS VALLEY.
MODEST DESTABILIZATION /200-500 J/KG/ IS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S...DESPITE POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. REGIONAL VWP DATA NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG WIND
PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 4 KM. GIVEN THE MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...A BRIEF LOCALLY ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT COULD
ACCOMPANY TSTMS AS THEY APPROACH/CROSS THE WARM FRONT...BUT FAST
MOTIONS SHOULD RESULT IN TSTMS QUICKLY MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY STORM
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   42328995 41978903 41098881 40248899 39979013 40459239
            41229292 41919280 42239235 42419150 42328995





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242034
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-242130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IOWA...NWRN AND W-CNTRL IL...FAR NERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242034Z - 242130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND A BRIEF TORNADO
OR TWO MAY EXIST AS TSTMS ENCOUNTER A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS ERN
IA INTO NRN IL. A WW IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS SERN IA
INTO W-CNTRL IA COLOCATED WITH A LLJ CENTERED THROUGH MID-MS VALLEY.
MODEST DESTABILIZATION /200-500 J/KG/ IS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S...DESPITE POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. REGIONAL VWP DATA NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG WIND
PROFILES IN THE LOWEST 4 KM. GIVEN THE MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...A BRIEF LOCALLY ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT COULD
ACCOMPANY TSTMS AS THEY APPROACH/CROSS THE WARM FRONT...BUT FAST
MOTIONS SHOULD RESULT IN TSTMS QUICKLY MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY STORM
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   42328995 41978903 41098881 40248899 39979013 40459239
            41229292 41919280 42239235 42419150 42328995





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242031
ARZ000-LAZ000-242200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AR...PORTIONS OF NERN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 202...

VALID 242031Z - 242200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 202 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO
CONTINUES WITHIN VALID PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA.

DISCUSSION...LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM W-CENTRAL AR
SEWD INTO NERN LA CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD WITH SEVERAL SVR TSTMS
ALONG THE LINE. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE.  LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV
MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT...AND KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS WILL
ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH
BOTH DISCRETE CELLS AND QLCS CIRCULATIONS.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
35-45 KTS REMAINS IN PLACE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AND 0-1 KM SRH OF
100 M2/S2 WAS RECENTLY SAMPLED BY THE KLZK VWP.

..BUNTING.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   32699185 32789234 33849305 34779371 35759360 36399344
            36469297 36379147 35359137 33389163 32699185







000
ACUS11 KWNS 242031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242031
ARZ000-LAZ000-242200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AR...PORTIONS OF NERN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 202...

VALID 242031Z - 242200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 202 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO
CONTINUES WITHIN VALID PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA.

DISCUSSION...LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM W-CENTRAL AR
SEWD INTO NERN LA CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD WITH SEVERAL SVR TSTMS
ALONG THE LINE. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE.  LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV
MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT...AND KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS WILL
ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH
BOTH DISCRETE CELLS AND QLCS CIRCULATIONS.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
35-45 KTS REMAINS IN PLACE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AND 0-1 KM SRH OF
100 M2/S2 WAS RECENTLY SAMPLED BY THE KLZK VWP.

..BUNTING.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   32699185 32789234 33849305 34779371 35759360 36399344
            36469297 36379147 35359137 33389163 32699185








000
ACUS11 KWNS 242031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242031
ARZ000-LAZ000-242200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AR...PORTIONS OF NERN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 202...

VALID 242031Z - 242200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 202 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO
CONTINUES WITHIN VALID PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA.

DISCUSSION...LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM W-CENTRAL AR
SEWD INTO NERN LA CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD WITH SEVERAL SVR TSTMS
ALONG THE LINE. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE.  LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV
MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT...AND KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS WILL
ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH
BOTH DISCRETE CELLS AND QLCS CIRCULATIONS.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
35-45 KTS REMAINS IN PLACE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AND 0-1 KM SRH OF
100 M2/S2 WAS RECENTLY SAMPLED BY THE KLZK VWP.

..BUNTING.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   32699185 32789234 33849305 34779371 35759360 36399344
            36469297 36379147 35359137 33389163 32699185








000
ACUS11 KWNS 242031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242031
ARZ000-LAZ000-242200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AR...PORTIONS OF NERN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 202...

VALID 242031Z - 242200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 202 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO
CONTINUES WITHIN VALID PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA.

DISCUSSION...LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM W-CENTRAL AR
SEWD INTO NERN LA CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD WITH SEVERAL SVR TSTMS
ALONG THE LINE. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE.  LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV
MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT...AND KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS WILL
ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH
BOTH DISCRETE CELLS AND QLCS CIRCULATIONS.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
35-45 KTS REMAINS IN PLACE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA AND 0-1 KM SRH OF
100 M2/S2 WAS RECENTLY SAMPLED BY THE KLZK VWP.

..BUNTING.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   32699185 32789234 33849305 34779371 35759360 36399344
            36469297 36379147 35359137 33389163 32699185







000
ACUS11 KWNS 242016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242015
TXZ000-OKZ000-242145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242015Z - 242145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF A DRYLINE FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO THE WRN
EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE SEPARATE AREAS
OF PERCOLATING CU ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS WEST
TX...INCLUDING THE SRN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN SOUTH PLAINS...AND FARTHER
S FROM SNYDER TO SONORA. WHILE CINH IS LIKELY STILL PRESENT AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK IN BETWEEN A SWRN OK IMPULSE AND A MORE
POTENT UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER SRN AZ...CONVECTIVE INITIATION REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS VIA A GRADUALLY INCREASING DRYLINE
CIRCULATION/CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING.
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG AMIDST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
AS A LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK/STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THUS...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A COUPLE
SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. POSSIBLE
WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT IMMINENT...BUT WILL REMAIN DEPENDENT ON
SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   33210101 34560223 35230230 35490079 35080010 33289931
            31759909 30639970 30570046 30840063 32540060 33210101





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242015
TXZ000-OKZ000-242145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242015Z - 242145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF A DRYLINE FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO THE WRN
EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE SEPARATE AREAS
OF PERCOLATING CU ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS WEST
TX...INCLUDING THE SRN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN SOUTH PLAINS...AND FARTHER
S FROM SNYDER TO SONORA. WHILE CINH IS LIKELY STILL PRESENT AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK IN BETWEEN A SWRN OK IMPULSE AND A MORE
POTENT UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER SRN AZ...CONVECTIVE INITIATION REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS VIA A GRADUALLY INCREASING DRYLINE
CIRCULATION/CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING.
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG AMIDST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
AS A LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK/STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THUS...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A COUPLE
SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. POSSIBLE
WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT IMMINENT...BUT WILL REMAIN DEPENDENT ON
SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   33210101 34560223 35230230 35490079 35080010 33289931
            31759909 30639970 30570046 30840063 32540060 33210101





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242015
TXZ000-OKZ000-242145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242015Z - 242145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF A DRYLINE FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO THE WRN
EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE SEPARATE AREAS
OF PERCOLATING CU ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS WEST
TX...INCLUDING THE SRN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN SOUTH PLAINS...AND FARTHER
S FROM SNYDER TO SONORA. WHILE CINH IS LIKELY STILL PRESENT AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK IN BETWEEN A SWRN OK IMPULSE AND A MORE
POTENT UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER SRN AZ...CONVECTIVE INITIATION REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS VIA A GRADUALLY INCREASING DRYLINE
CIRCULATION/CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING.
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG AMIDST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
AS A LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK/STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THUS...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A COUPLE
SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. POSSIBLE
WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT IMMINENT...BUT WILL REMAIN DEPENDENT ON
SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   33210101 34560223 35230230 35490079 35080010 33289931
            31759909 30639970 30570046 30840063 32540060 33210101






000
ACUS11 KWNS 242016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242015
TXZ000-OKZ000-242145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242015Z - 242145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF A DRYLINE FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO THE WRN
EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE SEPARATE AREAS
OF PERCOLATING CU ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS WEST
TX...INCLUDING THE SRN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN SOUTH PLAINS...AND FARTHER
S FROM SNYDER TO SONORA. WHILE CINH IS LIKELY STILL PRESENT AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK IN BETWEEN A SWRN OK IMPULSE AND A MORE
POTENT UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER SRN AZ...CONVECTIVE INITIATION REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS VIA A GRADUALLY INCREASING DRYLINE
CIRCULATION/CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING.
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG AMIDST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
AS A LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK/STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THUS...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A COUPLE
SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. POSSIBLE
WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT IMMINENT...BUT WILL REMAIN DEPENDENT ON
SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   33210101 34560223 35230230 35490079 35080010 33289931
            31759909 30639970 30570046 30840063 32540060 33210101





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242015
TXZ000-OKZ000-242145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242015Z - 242145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF A DRYLINE FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO THE WRN
EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE SEPARATE AREAS
OF PERCOLATING CU ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS WEST
TX...INCLUDING THE SRN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN SOUTH PLAINS...AND FARTHER
S FROM SNYDER TO SONORA. WHILE CINH IS LIKELY STILL PRESENT AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK IN BETWEEN A SWRN OK IMPULSE AND A MORE
POTENT UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER SRN AZ...CONVECTIVE INITIATION REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS VIA A GRADUALLY INCREASING DRYLINE
CIRCULATION/CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING.
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG AMIDST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
AS A LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK/STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THUS...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A COUPLE
SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. POSSIBLE
WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT IMMINENT...BUT WILL REMAIN DEPENDENT ON
SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   33210101 34560223 35230230 35490079 35080010 33289931
            31759909 30639970 30570046 30840063 32540060 33210101






000
ACUS11 KWNS 242016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242015
TXZ000-OKZ000-242145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242015Z - 242145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SVR STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF A DRYLINE FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO THE WRN
EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE SEPARATE AREAS
OF PERCOLATING CU ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS WEST
TX...INCLUDING THE SRN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN SOUTH PLAINS...AND FARTHER
S FROM SNYDER TO SONORA. WHILE CINH IS LIKELY STILL PRESENT AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK IN BETWEEN A SWRN OK IMPULSE AND A MORE
POTENT UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER SRN AZ...CONVECTIVE INITIATION REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS VIA A GRADUALLY INCREASING DRYLINE
CIRCULATION/CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING.
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WITH
MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG AMIDST LOW 60S DEWPOINTS.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
AS A LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK/STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THUS...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A COUPLE
SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. POSSIBLE
WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT IMMINENT...BUT WILL REMAIN DEPENDENT ON
SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   33210101 34560223 35230230 35490079 35080010 33289931
            31759909 30639970 30570046 30840063 32540060 33210101





000
ACUS01 KWNS 242002
SWODY1
SPC AC 242000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN CO...SWRN KS INTO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LA INTO ERN IA AND IL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND
MID/LWR MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.

...LOWER TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY NWD INTO MUCH OF IL...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PW AND DEEP SLY FLOW ARE IN PLACE WITH GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WELL NWD INTO
IL. LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND LIFTED INDICES ARE WEAK...HOWEVER...A
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL JET AS
NOTED ON AREA VWPS. HAVE EXTENDED LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES NWD INTO
IA AND IL DUE TO FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE BROADER WARM
FRONT AND HEATING.

...SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES...
STRONG HEATING PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH A MIDLEVEL THERMAL
TROUGH. THE RESULT IS STEEPENING LAPSE RATE PROFILES AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. INDEED...STORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH
OF ERN CO...WITH OTHER TOWERING CU FORMING ALONG THE TX/NM STATE
LINE. SHEAR PROFILES ARE BEST ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SERN
CO INTO SWRN KS AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING. AS CELLS FORM OVER SERN CO AND CONTINUE EWD...SOME
COULD EVENTUALLY CONTAIN A TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO HAIL.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES INTO SWRN KS.

FOR AREA INTO THE TX S PLAINS...HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IF
STORMS CAN FORM...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR ALOFT AS SEEN ON WV.
THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK A BIT FARTHER S BASED ON THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. SEE FORTHCOMING MCD 742.

..JEWELL.. 05/24/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE/COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF NUMEROUS SMALLER-SCALE
FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW -- WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS TODAY.  ONE OF THE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL OF THESE SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES IS MOVING ENEWD
ACROSS TX ATTM...AND IS SUPPORTING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF ONGOING
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION -- AND EMBEDDED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
CIRCULATIONS -- CROSSING ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND ADJACENT
MO/AR/LA ATTM.

AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD/ILL-DEFINED AREA OF GENERAL LOW PRESSURE IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS.  THE WRN EXTENT OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK AREA TODAY WILL BE DELINEATED BY AN
EWD-MIXING DRYLINE NOW OVER W TX...AND FOCUSED AREALLY/LOCALLY BY
NUMEROUS MESOSCALE/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES AND CIRCULATIONS FROM THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY.

...MO/AR/LA/WRN MS VICINITY...
A COMPLEX SCENARIO EXISTS ATTM NEAR AND W OF THE MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM IA SSWWD TO E TX/WRN LA.  THREE EMBEDDED/NNEWD-MOVING MESOSCALE
CIRCULATIONS ARE EVIDENT -- ONE OVER ERN IA...ONE CROSSING SERN
KS/SWRN MO...AND A THIRD OVER NERN TX...EACH WITH ARCS OF CONVECTION
TRAILING SWD TO THE NEXT CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE SERIES.

SEVERE RISK TODAY WILL EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION --
PRIMARILY WITH INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING BANDS OF STORMS BUT
ALSO WITH ANY ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE.  CLOUD
COVER ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIMIT HEATING...WHICH
SHOULD TEMPER STORM INTENSITY TO SOME DEGREE.  HOWEVER...MODERATE TO
STRONG FLOW ALOFT -- THOUGH LARGELY SLY/UNIDIRECTIONAL -- WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.  IN ADDITION...BACKED/SELY SURFACE WINDS
-- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS -- WILL SUPPORT
LOW-LEVEL MESOVORTICES WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS AND POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH ANY ISOLATED CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT.  THUS
-- A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY AS STORMS SPREAD EWD/NEWD ACROSS
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY MARGINAL HAIL.  THE PRIMARY RISK SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
ALONG AND W OF THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
WEAKENING OF STORMS AND ATTENDANT SEVERE RISK AS WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION SPREADS E OF THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

...ERN CO SEWD INTO NWRN TX/SWRN OK...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS SEWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND INTO SWRN OK/WRN N
TX...AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP AN AMPLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY
/1000 TO 2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/.

WITH 30 TO 35 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA ATOP
LOW-LEVEL SELYS ON THE COOL SIDE OF A WEAK/REMNANT OUTFLOW LYING
NW-SE ACROSS THIS AREA...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION
SUGGESTS THAT ANY DEVELOPING STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS --
WITH ATTENDANT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.  ONE
QUESTION ATTM REVOLVES AROUND THE NUMBER OF STORMS WHICH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WRN N TX/SWRN OK REGION IN THE WAKE OF A PRONOUNCED
VORT MAX CROSSING TX...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP -- COMMENSURATE WITH SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 242002
SWODY1
SPC AC 242000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN CO...SWRN KS INTO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LA INTO ERN IA AND IL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND
MID/LWR MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.

...LOWER TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY NWD INTO MUCH OF IL...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PW AND DEEP SLY FLOW ARE IN PLACE WITH GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WELL NWD INTO
IL. LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND LIFTED INDICES ARE WEAK...HOWEVER...A
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL JET AS
NOTED ON AREA VWPS. HAVE EXTENDED LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES NWD INTO
IA AND IL DUE TO FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE BROADER WARM
FRONT AND HEATING.

...SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES...
STRONG HEATING PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH A MIDLEVEL THERMAL
TROUGH. THE RESULT IS STEEPENING LAPSE RATE PROFILES AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. INDEED...STORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH
OF ERN CO...WITH OTHER TOWERING CU FORMING ALONG THE TX/NM STATE
LINE. SHEAR PROFILES ARE BEST ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SERN
CO INTO SWRN KS AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING. AS CELLS FORM OVER SERN CO AND CONTINUE EWD...SOME
COULD EVENTUALLY CONTAIN A TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO HAIL.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES INTO SWRN KS.

FOR AREA INTO THE TX S PLAINS...HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IF
STORMS CAN FORM...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR ALOFT AS SEEN ON WV.
THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK A BIT FARTHER S BASED ON THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. SEE FORTHCOMING MCD 742.

..JEWELL.. 05/24/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE/COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF NUMEROUS SMALLER-SCALE
FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW -- WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS TODAY.  ONE OF THE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL OF THESE SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES IS MOVING ENEWD
ACROSS TX ATTM...AND IS SUPPORTING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF ONGOING
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION -- AND EMBEDDED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
CIRCULATIONS -- CROSSING ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND ADJACENT
MO/AR/LA ATTM.

AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD/ILL-DEFINED AREA OF GENERAL LOW PRESSURE IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS.  THE WRN EXTENT OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK AREA TODAY WILL BE DELINEATED BY AN
EWD-MIXING DRYLINE NOW OVER W TX...AND FOCUSED AREALLY/LOCALLY BY
NUMEROUS MESOSCALE/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES AND CIRCULATIONS FROM THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY.

...MO/AR/LA/WRN MS VICINITY...
A COMPLEX SCENARIO EXISTS ATTM NEAR AND W OF THE MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM IA SSWWD TO E TX/WRN LA.  THREE EMBEDDED/NNEWD-MOVING MESOSCALE
CIRCULATIONS ARE EVIDENT -- ONE OVER ERN IA...ONE CROSSING SERN
KS/SWRN MO...AND A THIRD OVER NERN TX...EACH WITH ARCS OF CONVECTION
TRAILING SWD TO THE NEXT CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE SERIES.

SEVERE RISK TODAY WILL EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION --
PRIMARILY WITH INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING BANDS OF STORMS BUT
ALSO WITH ANY ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE.  CLOUD
COVER ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIMIT HEATING...WHICH
SHOULD TEMPER STORM INTENSITY TO SOME DEGREE.  HOWEVER...MODERATE TO
STRONG FLOW ALOFT -- THOUGH LARGELY SLY/UNIDIRECTIONAL -- WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.  IN ADDITION...BACKED/SELY SURFACE WINDS
-- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS -- WILL SUPPORT
LOW-LEVEL MESOVORTICES WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS AND POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH ANY ISOLATED CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT.  THUS
-- A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY AS STORMS SPREAD EWD/NEWD ACROSS
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY MARGINAL HAIL.  THE PRIMARY RISK SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
ALONG AND W OF THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
WEAKENING OF STORMS AND ATTENDANT SEVERE RISK AS WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION SPREADS E OF THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

...ERN CO SEWD INTO NWRN TX/SWRN OK...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS SEWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND INTO SWRN OK/WRN N
TX...AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP AN AMPLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY
/1000 TO 2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/.

WITH 30 TO 35 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA ATOP
LOW-LEVEL SELYS ON THE COOL SIDE OF A WEAK/REMNANT OUTFLOW LYING
NW-SE ACROSS THIS AREA...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION
SUGGESTS THAT ANY DEVELOPING STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS --
WITH ATTENDANT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.  ONE
QUESTION ATTM REVOLVES AROUND THE NUMBER OF STORMS WHICH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WRN N TX/SWRN OK REGION IN THE WAKE OF A PRONOUNCED
VORT MAX CROSSING TX...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP -- COMMENSURATE WITH SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 242002
SWODY1
SPC AC 242000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN CO...SWRN KS INTO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM LA INTO ERN IA AND IL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND
MID/LWR MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.

...LOWER TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY NWD INTO MUCH OF IL...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PW AND DEEP SLY FLOW ARE IN PLACE WITH GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO HEATING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WELL NWD INTO
IL. LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND LIFTED INDICES ARE WEAK...HOWEVER...A
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL JET AS
NOTED ON AREA VWPS. HAVE EXTENDED LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES NWD INTO
IA AND IL DUE TO FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE BROADER WARM
FRONT AND HEATING.

...SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK/TX PANHANDLES...
STRONG HEATING PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH A MIDLEVEL THERMAL
TROUGH. THE RESULT IS STEEPENING LAPSE RATE PROFILES AND INCREASING
INSTABILITY. INDEED...STORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH
OF ERN CO...WITH OTHER TOWERING CU FORMING ALONG THE TX/NM STATE
LINE. SHEAR PROFILES ARE BEST ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM SERN
CO INTO SWRN KS AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING. AS CELLS FORM OVER SERN CO AND CONTINUE EWD...SOME
COULD EVENTUALLY CONTAIN A TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO HAIL.
THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES INTO SWRN KS.

FOR AREA INTO THE TX S PLAINS...HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IF
STORMS CAN FORM...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR ALOFT AS SEEN ON WV.
THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK A BIT FARTHER S BASED ON THIS
CONDITIONAL THREAT. SEE FORTHCOMING MCD 742.

..JEWELL.. 05/24/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE/COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF NUMEROUS SMALLER-SCALE
FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW -- WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS TODAY.  ONE OF THE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL OF THESE SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES IS MOVING ENEWD
ACROSS TX ATTM...AND IS SUPPORTING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF ONGOING
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION -- AND EMBEDDED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
CIRCULATIONS -- CROSSING ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND ADJACENT
MO/AR/LA ATTM.

AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD/ILL-DEFINED AREA OF GENERAL LOW PRESSURE IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS.  THE WRN EXTENT OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK AREA TODAY WILL BE DELINEATED BY AN
EWD-MIXING DRYLINE NOW OVER W TX...AND FOCUSED AREALLY/LOCALLY BY
NUMEROUS MESOSCALE/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES AND CIRCULATIONS FROM THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY.

...MO/AR/LA/WRN MS VICINITY...
A COMPLEX SCENARIO EXISTS ATTM NEAR AND W OF THE MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM IA SSWWD TO E TX/WRN LA.  THREE EMBEDDED/NNEWD-MOVING MESOSCALE
CIRCULATIONS ARE EVIDENT -- ONE OVER ERN IA...ONE CROSSING SERN
KS/SWRN MO...AND A THIRD OVER NERN TX...EACH WITH ARCS OF CONVECTION
TRAILING SWD TO THE NEXT CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE SERIES.

SEVERE RISK TODAY WILL EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION --
PRIMARILY WITH INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING BANDS OF STORMS BUT
ALSO WITH ANY ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE.  CLOUD
COVER ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIMIT HEATING...WHICH
SHOULD TEMPER STORM INTENSITY TO SOME DEGREE.  HOWEVER...MODERATE TO
STRONG FLOW ALOFT -- THOUGH LARGELY SLY/UNIDIRECTIONAL -- WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.  IN ADDITION...BACKED/SELY SURFACE WINDS
-- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS -- WILL SUPPORT
LOW-LEVEL MESOVORTICES WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS AND POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH ANY ISOLATED CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT.  THUS
-- A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY AS STORMS SPREAD EWD/NEWD ACROSS
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY MARGINAL HAIL.  THE PRIMARY RISK SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
ALONG AND W OF THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
WEAKENING OF STORMS AND ATTENDANT SEVERE RISK AS WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION SPREADS E OF THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

...ERN CO SEWD INTO NWRN TX/SWRN OK...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS SEWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND INTO SWRN OK/WRN N
TX...AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP AN AMPLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY
/1000 TO 2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/.

WITH 30 TO 35 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA ATOP
LOW-LEVEL SELYS ON THE COOL SIDE OF A WEAK/REMNANT OUTFLOW LYING
NW-SE ACROSS THIS AREA...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION
SUGGESTS THAT ANY DEVELOPING STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS --
WITH ATTENDANT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.  ONE
QUESTION ATTM REVOLVES AROUND THE NUMBER OF STORMS WHICH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WRN N TX/SWRN OK REGION IN THE WAKE OF A PRONOUNCED
VORT MAX CROSSING TX...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP -- COMMENSURATE WITH SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA.






000
ACUS11 KWNS 241822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241822
COZ000-241945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241822Z - 241945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GRADUALLY THICKENING
CU FIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...AHEAD OF DCVA ACCOMPANYING A CLOSED
MIDLEVEL CYCLONE OVER NWRN CO. MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AMIDST LOW 50S DEWPOINTS...AND COMBINED WITH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MLCAPE
VALUES ARE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. TSTMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
OUT OF CU FIELD NEAR TAD...ALONG WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF DENVER...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST/PROGRESS
E-NEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN AND E-CNTRL CO THIS AFTERNOON.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS
STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL WLYS REMAIN POSITIONED S/E OF THE REGION
AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY WEAK...BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
OF 25-35 KT WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MULTICELL TO INTERMITTENT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL...WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
THREAT WILL REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   37070274 37100369 37600430 38380431 38750434 39900426
            40140396 40010289 39680250 39450250 38680219 37480209
            37070274





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241822
COZ000-241945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241822Z - 241945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GRADUALLY THICKENING
CU FIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...AHEAD OF DCVA ACCOMPANYING A CLOSED
MIDLEVEL CYCLONE OVER NWRN CO. MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AMIDST LOW 50S DEWPOINTS...AND COMBINED WITH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MLCAPE
VALUES ARE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. TSTMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
OUT OF CU FIELD NEAR TAD...ALONG WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF DENVER...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST/PROGRESS
E-NEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN AND E-CNTRL CO THIS AFTERNOON.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS
STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL WLYS REMAIN POSITIONED S/E OF THE REGION
AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY WEAK...BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
OF 25-35 KT WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MULTICELL TO INTERMITTENT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL...WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
THREAT WILL REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   37070274 37100369 37600430 38380431 38750434 39900426
            40140396 40010289 39680250 39450250 38680219 37480209
            37070274






000
ACUS11 KWNS 241822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241822
COZ000-241945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241822Z - 241945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GRADUALLY THICKENING
CU FIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...AHEAD OF DCVA ACCOMPANYING A CLOSED
MIDLEVEL CYCLONE OVER NWRN CO. MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AMIDST LOW 50S DEWPOINTS...AND COMBINED WITH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MLCAPE
VALUES ARE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. TSTMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
OUT OF CU FIELD NEAR TAD...ALONG WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF DENVER...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST/PROGRESS
E-NEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN AND E-CNTRL CO THIS AFTERNOON.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS
STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL WLYS REMAIN POSITIONED S/E OF THE REGION
AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY WEAK...BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
OF 25-35 KT WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MULTICELL TO INTERMITTENT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL...WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
THREAT WILL REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   37070274 37100369 37600430 38380431 38750434 39900426
            40140396 40010289 39680250 39450250 38680219 37480209
            37070274





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241822
COZ000-241945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241822Z - 241945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED HAIL EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GRADUALLY THICKENING
CU FIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...AHEAD OF DCVA ACCOMPANYING A CLOSED
MIDLEVEL CYCLONE OVER NWRN CO. MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AMIDST LOW 50S DEWPOINTS...AND COMBINED WITH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MLCAPE
VALUES ARE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. TSTMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
OUT OF CU FIELD NEAR TAD...ALONG WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF DENVER...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST/PROGRESS
E-NEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN AND E-CNTRL CO THIS AFTERNOON.

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS
STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL WLYS REMAIN POSITIONED S/E OF THE REGION
AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY WEAK...BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
OF 25-35 KT WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR MULTICELL TO INTERMITTENT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL...WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
THREAT WILL REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   37070274 37100369 37600430 38380431 38750434 39900426
            40140396 40010289 39680250 39450250 38680219 37480209
            37070274





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241754
MOZ000-241930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241754Z - 241930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A
TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO 1830Z.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE NRN PORTION
OF A QLCS ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL MO...WITH A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION EVIDENT OVER ERN HENRY COUNTY. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION
OF THIS LINE IS EXPECTED...IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT FROM A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST...0-1 KM SRH IN
THE RANGE OF 100 TO 200 M2/S2 WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED RISK FOR
QLCS CIRCULATIONS.  BOWING SEGMENTS MAY ALSO POSE A RISK FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS.

A WW IS LIKELY PRIOR TO 1830Z.

..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   36779318 37599325 38189362 38389372 39909294 40059220
            39919170 39499130 39059122 38779124 38339117 37889127
            36989139 36649146 36569189 36589304 36779318





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241754
MOZ000-241930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241754Z - 241930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A
TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO 1830Z.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE NRN PORTION
OF A QLCS ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL MO...WITH A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION EVIDENT OVER ERN HENRY COUNTY. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION
OF THIS LINE IS EXPECTED...IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT FROM A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST...0-1 KM SRH IN
THE RANGE OF 100 TO 200 M2/S2 WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED RISK FOR
QLCS CIRCULATIONS.  BOWING SEGMENTS MAY ALSO POSE A RISK FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS.

A WW IS LIKELY PRIOR TO 1830Z.

..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   36779318 37599325 38189362 38389372 39909294 40059220
            39919170 39499130 39059122 38779124 38339117 37889127
            36989139 36649146 36569189 36589304 36779318





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241754
MOZ000-241930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241754Z - 241930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A
TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO 1830Z.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE NRN PORTION
OF A QLCS ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL MO...WITH A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION EVIDENT OVER ERN HENRY COUNTY. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION
OF THIS LINE IS EXPECTED...IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT FROM A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST...0-1 KM SRH IN
THE RANGE OF 100 TO 200 M2/S2 WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED RISK FOR
QLCS CIRCULATIONS.  BOWING SEGMENTS MAY ALSO POSE A RISK FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS.

A WW IS LIKELY PRIOR TO 1830Z.

..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   36779318 37599325 38189362 38389372 39909294 40059220
            39919170 39499130 39059122 38779124 38339117 37889127
            36989139 36649146 36569189 36589304 36779318






000
ACUS11 KWNS 241755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241754
MOZ000-241930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241754Z - 241930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A
TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO 1830Z.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE NRN PORTION
OF A QLCS ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL MO...WITH A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION EVIDENT OVER ERN HENRY COUNTY. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION
OF THIS LINE IS EXPECTED...IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT FROM A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST...0-1 KM SRH IN
THE RANGE OF 100 TO 200 M2/S2 WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED RISK FOR
QLCS CIRCULATIONS.  BOWING SEGMENTS MAY ALSO POSE A RISK FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS.

A WW IS LIKELY PRIOR TO 1830Z.

..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   36779318 37599325 38189362 38389372 39909294 40059220
            39919170 39499130 39059122 38779124 38339117 37889127
            36989139 36649146 36569189 36589304 36779318






000
ACUS11 KWNS 241755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241754
MOZ000-241930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241754Z - 241930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A
TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO 1830Z.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE NRN PORTION
OF A QLCS ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL MO...WITH A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION EVIDENT OVER ERN HENRY COUNTY. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION
OF THIS LINE IS EXPECTED...IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT FROM A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST...0-1 KM SRH IN
THE RANGE OF 100 TO 200 M2/S2 WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED RISK FOR
QLCS CIRCULATIONS.  BOWING SEGMENTS MAY ALSO POSE A RISK FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS.

A WW IS LIKELY PRIOR TO 1830Z.

..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   36779318 37599325 38189362 38389372 39909294 40059220
            39919170 39499130 39059122 38779124 38339117 37889127
            36989139 36649146 36569189 36589304 36779318





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241754
MOZ000-241930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241754Z - 241930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A
TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO 1830Z.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE NRN PORTION
OF A QLCS ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL MO...WITH A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION EVIDENT OVER ERN HENRY COUNTY. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION
OF THIS LINE IS EXPECTED...IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT FROM A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST...0-1 KM SRH IN
THE RANGE OF 100 TO 200 M2/S2 WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED RISK FOR
QLCS CIRCULATIONS.  BOWING SEGMENTS MAY ALSO POSE A RISK FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS.

A WW IS LIKELY PRIOR TO 1830Z.

..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   36779318 37599325 38189362 38389372 39909294 40059220
            39919170 39499130 39059122 38779124 38339117 37889127
            36989139 36649146 36569189 36589304 36779318





000
ACUS02 KWNS 241731
SWODY2
SPC AC 241730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE BODY OF TX INTO WRN
LA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM TEXAS INTO THE
MID SOUTH REGION ON MEMORIAL DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
TEXAS WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES
BEHIND OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. TO THE S...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TX DURING THE DAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGER-SCALE WEAKER TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE WRN AND CNTRL
STATES...PROVIDING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INCREASED WINDS. AT
THE SURFACE...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE
PLAINS STATES INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER TX INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHERE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FLOW EXIST AND WILL FAVOR MULTIPLE CLUSTERS
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.

ELSEWHERE...MORE ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM KS
INTO WI...NEAR A WEAK LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH BUT ALSO BEHIND THE
EXITING LEADING IMPULSE.

...TX...SRN OK...ARKLATEX...
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF FLOODING
RAINS...ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM RELATIVELY EARLY ACROSS CENTRAL TX WITH LITTLE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PRESENT AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS. FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL STORM RELATIVE
FLOW WILL STRONGLY FAVOR RAPID UPSCALE-GROWTH OF ONE OR MORE LARGE
STORM CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF TX AND SRN OK...THEN INTO THE
ARKLATEX/SABINE RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z. HOWEVER...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY STORMS MERGE
INTO CLUSTERS. IF CELLS REMAIN MORE CELLULAR...A FEW TORNADOES COULD
OCCUR.

...KS INTO SRN WI...
DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED
WIND DAMAGE DEPENDING ON STORM MODE.

..JEWELL.. 05/24/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 241731
SWODY2
SPC AC 241730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE BODY OF TX INTO WRN
LA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM TEXAS INTO THE
MID SOUTH REGION ON MEMORIAL DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
TEXAS WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES
BEHIND OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. TO THE S...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TX DURING THE DAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGER-SCALE WEAKER TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE WRN AND CNTRL
STATES...PROVIDING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INCREASED WINDS. AT
THE SURFACE...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE
PLAINS STATES INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER TX INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHERE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FLOW EXIST AND WILL FAVOR MULTIPLE CLUSTERS
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.

ELSEWHERE...MORE ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM KS
INTO WI...NEAR A WEAK LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH BUT ALSO BEHIND THE
EXITING LEADING IMPULSE.

...TX...SRN OK...ARKLATEX...
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF FLOODING
RAINS...ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM RELATIVELY EARLY ACROSS CENTRAL TX WITH LITTLE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PRESENT AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS. FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL STORM RELATIVE
FLOW WILL STRONGLY FAVOR RAPID UPSCALE-GROWTH OF ONE OR MORE LARGE
STORM CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF TX AND SRN OK...THEN INTO THE
ARKLATEX/SABINE RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z. HOWEVER...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY STORMS MERGE
INTO CLUSTERS. IF CELLS REMAIN MORE CELLULAR...A FEW TORNADOES COULD
OCCUR.

...KS INTO SRN WI...
DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED
WIND DAMAGE DEPENDING ON STORM MODE.

..JEWELL.. 05/24/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 241731
SWODY2
SPC AC 241730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE BODY OF TX INTO WRN
LA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM TEXAS INTO THE
MID SOUTH REGION ON MEMORIAL DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
TEXAS WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES
BEHIND OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. TO THE S...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TX DURING THE DAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGER-SCALE WEAKER TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE WRN AND CNTRL
STATES...PROVIDING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INCREASED WINDS. AT
THE SURFACE...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE
PLAINS STATES INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER TX INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHERE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FLOW EXIST AND WILL FAVOR MULTIPLE CLUSTERS
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.

ELSEWHERE...MORE ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM KS
INTO WI...NEAR A WEAK LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH BUT ALSO BEHIND THE
EXITING LEADING IMPULSE.

...TX...SRN OK...ARKLATEX...
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF FLOODING
RAINS...ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM RELATIVELY EARLY ACROSS CENTRAL TX WITH LITTLE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PRESENT AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS. FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL STORM RELATIVE
FLOW WILL STRONGLY FAVOR RAPID UPSCALE-GROWTH OF ONE OR MORE LARGE
STORM CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF TX AND SRN OK...THEN INTO THE
ARKLATEX/SABINE RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z. HOWEVER...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY STORMS MERGE
INTO CLUSTERS. IF CELLS REMAIN MORE CELLULAR...A FEW TORNADOES COULD
OCCUR.

...KS INTO SRN WI...
DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED
WIND DAMAGE DEPENDING ON STORM MODE.

..JEWELL.. 05/24/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 241731
SWODY2
SPC AC 241730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE BODY OF TX INTO WRN
LA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM TEXAS INTO THE
MID SOUTH REGION ON MEMORIAL DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
TEXAS WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY WITH SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES
BEHIND OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. TO THE S...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS TX DURING THE DAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGER-SCALE WEAKER TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE WRN AND CNTRL
STATES...PROVIDING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND INCREASED WINDS. AT
THE SURFACE...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE
PLAINS STATES INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN WILL BE OVER TX INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHERE STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STRONGER FLOW EXIST AND WILL FAVOR MULTIPLE CLUSTERS
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.

ELSEWHERE...MORE ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM KS
INTO WI...NEAR A WEAK LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH BUT ALSO BEHIND THE
EXITING LEADING IMPULSE.

...TX...SRN OK...ARKLATEX...
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF FLOODING
RAINS...ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM RELATIVELY EARLY ACROSS CENTRAL TX WITH LITTLE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PRESENT AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS. FORCING
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL STORM RELATIVE
FLOW WILL STRONGLY FAVOR RAPID UPSCALE-GROWTH OF ONE OR MORE LARGE
STORM CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF TX AND SRN OK...THEN INTO THE
ARKLATEX/SABINE RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z. HOWEVER...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY STORMS MERGE
INTO CLUSTERS. IF CELLS REMAIN MORE CELLULAR...A FEW TORNADOES COULD
OCCUR.

...KS INTO SRN WI...
DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED
WIND DAMAGE DEPENDING ON STORM MODE.

..JEWELL.. 05/24/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 241705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241705
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-241900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EXTREME E TX...CENTRAL/NRN LA...SRN
AR...EXTREME SERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241705Z - 241900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE A
RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 19Z.

DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST/UNCAPPED AIR MASS /PW VALUES AROUND 1.75
INCHES/ IS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF A LONG-LIVED LINEAR COMPLEX OF
TSTMS EXTENDING FROM NERN TX SWD NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER AREA AT
1630Z. A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER NERN
TX WILL LIFT NEWD THRU MID AFTN AND PROVIDE MODEST LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AVERAGES 30-35
KTS IN THE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT...WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 100 M2/S2. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS THROUGH
THIS AFTN...FURTHER INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SRH. DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER...DIURNAL HEATING AND NWD TRANSPORT OF HIGH THETA-E AIR
WILL LEAD TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AND A CONTINUED UPTICK IN TSTM
INTENSITY WITH THE ONGOING LINEAR COMPLEX AS IT MOVES NE.
SMALL-SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
QLCS CIRCULATIONS. IN ADDITION...MORE DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE MAY ALSO ACQUIRE LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND ALSO
POSE A RISK FOR A TORNADO.

TRENDS IN TSTM INTENSITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHARACTERISTICS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 19Z.

..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31049323 32039358 32539389 32849444 33169467 33739473
            34319451 34859433 35199362 35369334 35379303 35109247
            34629224 33189216 31799208 31089210 30749209 30399234
            30249262 30159290 30149309 30869329 31049323





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241705
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-241900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EXTREME E TX...CENTRAL/NRN LA...SRN
AR...EXTREME SERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241705Z - 241900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE A
RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 19Z.

DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST/UNCAPPED AIR MASS /PW VALUES AROUND 1.75
INCHES/ IS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF A LONG-LIVED LINEAR COMPLEX OF
TSTMS EXTENDING FROM NERN TX SWD NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER AREA AT
1630Z. A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER NERN
TX WILL LIFT NEWD THRU MID AFTN AND PROVIDE MODEST LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AVERAGES 30-35
KTS IN THE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT...WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 100 M2/S2. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS THROUGH
THIS AFTN...FURTHER INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SRH. DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER...DIURNAL HEATING AND NWD TRANSPORT OF HIGH THETA-E AIR
WILL LEAD TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AND A CONTINUED UPTICK IN TSTM
INTENSITY WITH THE ONGOING LINEAR COMPLEX AS IT MOVES NE.
SMALL-SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
QLCS CIRCULATIONS. IN ADDITION...MORE DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE MAY ALSO ACQUIRE LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND ALSO
POSE A RISK FOR A TORNADO.

TRENDS IN TSTM INTENSITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHARACTERISTICS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 19Z.

..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31049323 32039358 32539389 32849444 33169467 33739473
            34319451 34859433 35199362 35369334 35379303 35109247
            34629224 33189216 31799208 31089210 30749209 30399234
            30249262 30159290 30149309 30869329 31049323






000
ACUS11 KWNS 241705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241705
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-241900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EXTREME E TX...CENTRAL/NRN LA...SRN
AR...EXTREME SERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241705Z - 241900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE A
RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 19Z.

DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST/UNCAPPED AIR MASS /PW VALUES AROUND 1.75
INCHES/ IS IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF A LONG-LIVED LINEAR COMPLEX OF
TSTMS EXTENDING FROM NERN TX SWD NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER AREA AT
1630Z. A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER NERN
TX WILL LIFT NEWD THRU MID AFTN AND PROVIDE MODEST LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AVERAGES 30-35
KTS IN THE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT...WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 100 M2/S2. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS THROUGH
THIS AFTN...FURTHER INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SRH. DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER...DIURNAL HEATING AND NWD TRANSPORT OF HIGH THETA-E AIR
WILL LEAD TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AND A CONTINUED UPTICK IN TSTM
INTENSITY WITH THE ONGOING LINEAR COMPLEX AS IT MOVES NE.
SMALL-SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
QLCS CIRCULATIONS. IN ADDITION...MORE DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE MAY ALSO ACQUIRE LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND ALSO
POSE A RISK FOR A TORNADO.

TRENDS IN TSTM INTENSITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHARACTERISTICS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 19Z.

..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31049323 32039358 32539389 32849444 33169467 33739473
            34319451 34859433 35199362 35369334 35379303 35109247
            34629224 33189216 31799208 31089210 30749209 30399234
            30249262 30159290 30149309 30869329 31049323





000
ACUS01 KWNS 241634
SWODY1
SPC AC 241632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MO SWD TO LA/WRN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN CO/SWRN KS SEWD TO
SWRN OK/WRN N TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE/COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF NUMEROUS SMALLER-SCALE
FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW -- WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS TODAY.  ONE OF THE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL OF THESE SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES IS MOVING ENEWD
ACROSS TX ATTM...AND IS SUPPORTING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF ONGOING
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION -- AND EMBEDDED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
CIRCULATIONS -- CROSSING ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND ADJACENT
MO/AR/LA ATTM.

AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD/ILL-DEFINED AREA OF GENERAL LOW PRESSURE IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS.  THE WRN EXTENT OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK AREA TODAY WILL BE DELINEATED BY AN
EWD-MIXING DRYLINE NOW OVER W TX...AND FOCUSED AREALLY/LOCALLY BY
NUMEROUS MESOSCALE/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES AND CIRCULATIONS FROM THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY.

...MO/AR/LA/WRN MS VICINITY...
A COMPLEX SCENARIO EXISTS ATTM NEAR AND W OF THE MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM IA SSWWD TO E TX/WRN LA.  THREE EMBEDDED/NNEWD-MOVING MESOSCALE
CIRCULATIONS ARE EVIDENT -- ONE OVER ERN IA...ONE CROSSING SERN
KS/SWRN MO...AND A THIRD OVER NERN TX...EACH WITH ARCS OF CONVECTION
TRAILING SWD TO THE NEXT CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE SERIES.

SEVERE RISK TODAY WILL EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION --
PRIMARILY WITH INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING BANDS OF STORMS BUT
ALSO WITH ANY ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE.  CLOUD
COVER ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIMIT HEATING...WHICH
SHOULD TEMPER STORM INTENSITY TO SOME DEGREE.  HOWEVER...MODERATE TO
STRONG FLOW ALOFT -- THOUGH LARGELY SLY/UNIDIRECTIONAL -- WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.  IN ADDITION...BACKED/SELY SURFACE WINDS
-- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS -- WILL SUPPORT
LOW-LEVEL MESOVORTICES WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS AND POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH ANY ISOLATED CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT.  THUS
-- A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY AS STORMS SPREAD EWD/NEWD ACROSS
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY MARGINAL HAIL.  THE PRIMARY RISK SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
ALONG AND W OF THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
WEAKENING OF STORMS AND ATTENDANT SEVERE RISK AS WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION SPREADS E OF THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

...ERN CO SEWD INTO NWRN TX/SWRN OK...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS SEWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND INTO SWRN OK/WRN N
TX...AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP AN AMPLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY
/1000 TO 2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/.

WITH 30 TO 35 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA ATOP
LOW-LEVEL SELYS ON THE COOL SIDE OF A WEAK/REMNANT OUTFLOW LYING
NW-SE ACROSS THIS AREA...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION
SUGGESTS THAT ANY DEVELOPING STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS --
WITH ATTENDANT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.  ONE
QUESTION ATTM REVOLVES AROUND THE NUMBER OF STORMS WHICH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WRN N TX/SWRN OK REGION IN THE WAKE OF A PRONOUNCED
VORT MAX CROSSING TX...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP -- COMMENSURATE WITH SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA.

..GOSS/ROGERS.. 05/24/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 241634
SWODY1
SPC AC 241632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MO SWD TO LA/WRN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN CO/SWRN KS SEWD TO
SWRN OK/WRN N TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE/COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF NUMEROUS SMALLER-SCALE
FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW -- WILL CONTINUE
MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS TODAY.  ONE OF THE
MORE SUBSTANTIAL OF THESE SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES IS MOVING ENEWD
ACROSS TX ATTM...AND IS SUPPORTING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF ONGOING
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION -- AND EMBEDDED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
CIRCULATIONS -- CROSSING ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND ADJACENT
MO/AR/LA ATTM.

AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD/ILL-DEFINED AREA OF GENERAL LOW PRESSURE IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS.  THE WRN EXTENT OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK AREA TODAY WILL BE DELINEATED BY AN
EWD-MIXING DRYLINE NOW OVER W TX...AND FOCUSED AREALLY/LOCALLY BY
NUMEROUS MESOSCALE/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES AND CIRCULATIONS FROM THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY.

...MO/AR/LA/WRN MS VICINITY...
A COMPLEX SCENARIO EXISTS ATTM NEAR AND W OF THE MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION...WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM IA SSWWD TO E TX/WRN LA.  THREE EMBEDDED/NNEWD-MOVING MESOSCALE
CIRCULATIONS ARE EVIDENT -- ONE OVER ERN IA...ONE CROSSING SERN
KS/SWRN MO...AND A THIRD OVER NERN TX...EACH WITH ARCS OF CONVECTION
TRAILING SWD TO THE NEXT CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE SERIES.

SEVERE RISK TODAY WILL EXIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION --
PRIMARILY WITH INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING BANDS OF STORMS BUT
ALSO WITH ANY ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE.  CLOUD
COVER ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIMIT HEATING...WHICH
SHOULD TEMPER STORM INTENSITY TO SOME DEGREE.  HOWEVER...MODERATE TO
STRONG FLOW ALOFT -- THOUGH LARGELY SLY/UNIDIRECTIONAL -- WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.  IN ADDITION...BACKED/SELY SURFACE WINDS
-- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS -- WILL SUPPORT
LOW-LEVEL MESOVORTICES WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS AND POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH ANY ISOLATED CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT.  THUS
-- A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY AS STORMS SPREAD EWD/NEWD ACROSS
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY MARGINAL HAIL.  THE PRIMARY RISK SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
ALONG AND W OF THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
WEAKENING OF STORMS AND ATTENDANT SEVERE RISK AS WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION SPREADS E OF THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

...ERN CO SEWD INTO NWRN TX/SWRN OK...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS SEWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND INTO SWRN OK/WRN N
TX...AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP AN AMPLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY
/1000 TO 2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/.

WITH 30 TO 35 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA ATOP
LOW-LEVEL SELYS ON THE COOL SIDE OF A WEAK/REMNANT OUTFLOW LYING
NW-SE ACROSS THIS AREA...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION
SUGGESTS THAT ANY DEVELOPING STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS --
WITH ATTENDANT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.  ONE
QUESTION ATTM REVOLVES AROUND THE NUMBER OF STORMS WHICH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WRN N TX/SWRN OK REGION IN THE WAKE OF A PRONOUNCED
VORT MAX CROSSING TX...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP -- COMMENSURATE WITH SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA.

..GOSS/ROGERS.. 05/24/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 241247
SWODY1
SPC AC 241245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OK...LA...AR...AND INTO SOUTHERN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
CO...THE TX PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

...EAST TX INTO AR/MO...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING PARTS OF EAST TX THIS
MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT REMNANT MCVS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY
REJUVENATE BY MID AFTERNOON AS THEY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS
OF NORTHERN LA AND AR.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER
THIS REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS.  VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A MIXTURE OF DISCRETE AND LINEAR MODE STORMS
LATER TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MO AND FAR WESTERN
TN.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.  HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SHEAR PROFILES
WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STORMS THAT CAN
MAINTAIN DISCRETE MODE.

...SOUTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN OK...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN CO AND THE TX PANHANDLE.  THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE
CONSIDERABLE DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE CAPE VALUES /OVER 1500 J/KG/...AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM
SOUTHEAST CO INTO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...SPREADING INTO
WESTERN OK THIS EVENING.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT IN
THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..HART/GLEASON.. 05/24/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 241247
SWODY1
SPC AC 241245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OK...LA...AR...AND INTO SOUTHERN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
CO...THE TX PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

...EAST TX INTO AR/MO...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING PARTS OF EAST TX THIS
MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT REMNANT MCVS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY
REJUVENATE BY MID AFTERNOON AS THEY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS
OF NORTHERN LA AND AR.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER
THIS REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS.  VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A MIXTURE OF DISCRETE AND LINEAR MODE STORMS
LATER TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MO AND FAR WESTERN
TN.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.  HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SHEAR PROFILES
WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STORMS THAT CAN
MAINTAIN DISCRETE MODE.

...SOUTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN OK...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN CO AND THE TX PANHANDLE.  THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE
CONSIDERABLE DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE CAPE VALUES /OVER 1500 J/KG/...AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM
SOUTHEAST CO INTO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...SPREADING INTO
WESTERN OK THIS EVENING.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT IN
THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..HART/GLEASON.. 05/24/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 241247
SWODY1
SPC AC 241245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OK...LA...AR...AND INTO SOUTHERN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
CO...THE TX PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

...EAST TX INTO AR/MO...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING PARTS OF EAST TX THIS
MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT REMNANT MCVS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY
REJUVENATE BY MID AFTERNOON AS THEY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS
OF NORTHERN LA AND AR.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER
THIS REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS.  VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A MIXTURE OF DISCRETE AND LINEAR MODE STORMS
LATER TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MO AND FAR WESTERN
TN.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.  HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SHEAR PROFILES
WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STORMS THAT CAN
MAINTAIN DISCRETE MODE.

...SOUTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN OK...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN CO AND THE TX PANHANDLE.  THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE
CONSIDERABLE DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE CAPE VALUES /OVER 1500 J/KG/...AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM
SOUTHEAST CO INTO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...SPREADING INTO
WESTERN OK THIS EVENING.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT IN
THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..HART/GLEASON.. 05/24/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 241247
SWODY1
SPC AC 241245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OK...LA...AR...AND INTO SOUTHERN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
CO...THE TX PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN OK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

...EAST TX INTO AR/MO...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING PARTS OF EAST TX THIS
MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN LATER THIS
MORNING...BUT REMNANT MCVS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY
REJUVENATE BY MID AFTERNOON AS THEY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS
OF NORTHERN LA AND AR.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER
THIS REGION...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS.  VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A MIXTURE OF DISCRETE AND LINEAR MODE STORMS
LATER TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MO AND FAR WESTERN
TN.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.  HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SHEAR PROFILES
WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STORMS THAT CAN
MAINTAIN DISCRETE MODE.

...SOUTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN OK...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN CO AND THE TX PANHANDLE.  THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE
CONSIDERABLE DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE CAPE VALUES /OVER 1500 J/KG/...AND
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM
SOUTHEAST CO INTO THE NORTHERN/EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...SPREADING INTO
WESTERN OK THIS EVENING.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT IN
THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..HART/GLEASON.. 05/24/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 240817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240816
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-240915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX...SERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 199...200...

VALID 240816Z - 240915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 199...200...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WW/S 199/200 ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. REPLACEMENT
WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY...BUT LOCAL TEMPORAL EXTENSION IS POSSIBLE
WITH A RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCV EVOLVING NNE FROM THE METROPLEX.

DISCUSSION...MCV OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE METROPLEX CURRENTLY IS
MOVING N AROUND 40 KT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. LARGER-SCALE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT IN 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM
MARSHALL TO ADAIR COUNTY OK. IT APPEARS PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS MCV
SHOULD CONTINUE ITS NWD TRACK TOWARDS THE RED RIVER BEFORE SHIFTING
MORE NELY OVER SERN OK. GIVEN RECENT MEASURED WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40
KT IN THE PAST HOUR /KDAL AND KRBD/...THESE MAY BE CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED DAMAGE. WITH WARM SECTOR AIR OVER NERN TX/SERN OK
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 70S SURFACE TEMPS AND NEAR 70 DEW
POINTS...TRANSIENT/WEAK MESOVORTICES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS THE MCV INTERACTS WITH THE LARGER-SCALE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

..GRAMS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33219692 33799673 34339591 35019505 35549468 35649452
            35439441 35009445 34219476 33719575 33039637 32889668
            33029686 33219692






000
ACUS11 KWNS 240817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240816
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-240915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX...SERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 199...200...

VALID 240816Z - 240915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 199...200...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WW/S 199/200 ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. REPLACEMENT
WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY...BUT LOCAL TEMPORAL EXTENSION IS POSSIBLE
WITH A RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCV EVOLVING NNE FROM THE METROPLEX.

DISCUSSION...MCV OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE METROPLEX CURRENTLY IS
MOVING N AROUND 40 KT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. LARGER-SCALE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT IN 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM
MARSHALL TO ADAIR COUNTY OK. IT APPEARS PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS MCV
SHOULD CONTINUE ITS NWD TRACK TOWARDS THE RED RIVER BEFORE SHIFTING
MORE NELY OVER SERN OK. GIVEN RECENT MEASURED WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40
KT IN THE PAST HOUR /KDAL AND KRBD/...THESE MAY BE CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED DAMAGE. WITH WARM SECTOR AIR OVER NERN TX/SERN OK
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 70S SURFACE TEMPS AND NEAR 70 DEW
POINTS...TRANSIENT/WEAK MESOVORTICES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS THE MCV INTERACTS WITH THE LARGER-SCALE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

..GRAMS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33219692 33799673 34339591 35019505 35549468 35649452
            35439441 35009445 34219476 33719575 33039637 32889668
            33029686 33219692





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240816
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-240915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX...SERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 199...200...

VALID 240816Z - 240915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 199...200...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WW/S 199/200 ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. REPLACEMENT
WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY...BUT LOCAL TEMPORAL EXTENSION IS POSSIBLE
WITH A RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCV EVOLVING NNE FROM THE METROPLEX.

DISCUSSION...MCV OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE METROPLEX CURRENTLY IS
MOVING N AROUND 40 KT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. LARGER-SCALE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT IN 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM
MARSHALL TO ADAIR COUNTY OK. IT APPEARS PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS MCV
SHOULD CONTINUE ITS NWD TRACK TOWARDS THE RED RIVER BEFORE SHIFTING
MORE NELY OVER SERN OK. GIVEN RECENT MEASURED WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40
KT IN THE PAST HOUR /KDAL AND KRBD/...THESE MAY BE CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED DAMAGE. WITH WARM SECTOR AIR OVER NERN TX/SERN OK
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 70S SURFACE TEMPS AND NEAR 70 DEW
POINTS...TRANSIENT/WEAK MESOVORTICES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS THE MCV INTERACTS WITH THE LARGER-SCALE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

..GRAMS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33219692 33799673 34339591 35019505 35549468 35649452
            35439441 35009445 34219476 33719575 33039637 32889668
            33029686 33219692





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240816
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-240915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX...SERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 199...200...

VALID 240816Z - 240915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 199...200...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WW/S 199/200 ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. REPLACEMENT
WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY...BUT LOCAL TEMPORAL EXTENSION IS POSSIBLE
WITH A RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCV EVOLVING NNE FROM THE METROPLEX.

DISCUSSION...MCV OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE METROPLEX CURRENTLY IS
MOVING N AROUND 40 KT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. LARGER-SCALE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT IN 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM
MARSHALL TO ADAIR COUNTY OK. IT APPEARS PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS MCV
SHOULD CONTINUE ITS NWD TRACK TOWARDS THE RED RIVER BEFORE SHIFTING
MORE NELY OVER SERN OK. GIVEN RECENT MEASURED WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40
KT IN THE PAST HOUR /KDAL AND KRBD/...THESE MAY BE CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED DAMAGE. WITH WARM SECTOR AIR OVER NERN TX/SERN OK
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 70S SURFACE TEMPS AND NEAR 70 DEW
POINTS...TRANSIENT/WEAK MESOVORTICES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS THE MCV INTERACTS WITH THE LARGER-SCALE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

..GRAMS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33219692 33799673 34339591 35019505 35549468 35649452
            35439441 35009445 34219476 33719575 33039637 32889668
            33029686 33219692






000
ACUS11 KWNS 240817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240816
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-240915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX...SERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 199...200...

VALID 240816Z - 240915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 199...200...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WW/S 199/200 ARE SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 09Z. REPLACEMENT
WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY...BUT LOCAL TEMPORAL EXTENSION IS POSSIBLE
WITH A RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCV EVOLVING NNE FROM THE METROPLEX.

DISCUSSION...MCV OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE METROPLEX CURRENTLY IS
MOVING N AROUND 40 KT ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. LARGER-SCALE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT IN 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM
MARSHALL TO ADAIR COUNTY OK. IT APPEARS PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS MCV
SHOULD CONTINUE ITS NWD TRACK TOWARDS THE RED RIVER BEFORE SHIFTING
MORE NELY OVER SERN OK. GIVEN RECENT MEASURED WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40
KT IN THE PAST HOUR /KDAL AND KRBD/...THESE MAY BE CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED DAMAGE. WITH WARM SECTOR AIR OVER NERN TX/SERN OK
CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 70S SURFACE TEMPS AND NEAR 70 DEW
POINTS...TRANSIENT/WEAK MESOVORTICES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AS THE MCV INTERACTS WITH THE LARGER-SCALE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

..GRAMS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33219692 33799673 34339591 35019505 35549468 35649452
            35439441 35009445 34219476 33719575 33039637 32889668
            33029686 33219692





000
ACUS03 KWNS 240731
SWODY3
SPC AC 240730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
APPALACHIANS VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. OTHER POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.

...LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...
IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A FACTOR
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DESTABILIZATION/RELATED SEVERE
RISK EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THIS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY. WHILE THERE IS
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY...THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND RELATED MID/UPPER JET WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
MIDWEST DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. AS STORMS INCREASE/INTENSIFY INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY AND A RELATIVELY
STRONG WIND FIELD /PARTICULARLY TN VALLEY NORTHWARD/ COULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARKS...
WHILE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAK UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK MAY
EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PERIOD AND
A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE IN PLACE BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE AND NEAR/SOUTHEAST
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO
VALLEY. STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE STORMS POTENTIALLY OTHERWISE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS VICINITY WITH AID OF INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 240731
SWODY3
SPC AC 240730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
APPALACHIANS VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. OTHER POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.

...LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...
IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A FACTOR
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DESTABILIZATION/RELATED SEVERE
RISK EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THIS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY. WHILE THERE IS
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY...THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND RELATED MID/UPPER JET WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
MIDWEST DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. AS STORMS INCREASE/INTENSIFY INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY AND A RELATIVELY
STRONG WIND FIELD /PARTICULARLY TN VALLEY NORTHWARD/ COULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARKS...
WHILE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAK UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK MAY
EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PERIOD AND
A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE IN PLACE BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE AND NEAR/SOUTHEAST
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO
VALLEY. STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE STORMS POTENTIALLY OTHERWISE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS VICINITY WITH AID OF INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015





000
ACUS03 KWNS 240731
SWODY3
SPC AC 240730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
APPALACHIANS VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. OTHER POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.

...LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...
IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A FACTOR
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DESTABILIZATION/RELATED SEVERE
RISK EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THIS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY. WHILE THERE IS
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY...THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND RELATED MID/UPPER JET WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
MIDWEST DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. AS STORMS INCREASE/INTENSIFY INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY AND A RELATIVELY
STRONG WIND FIELD /PARTICULARLY TN VALLEY NORTHWARD/ COULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARKS...
WHILE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAK UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK MAY
EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PERIOD AND
A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE IN PLACE BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE AND NEAR/SOUTHEAST
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO
VALLEY. STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE STORMS POTENTIALLY OTHERWISE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS VICINITY WITH AID OF INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 240731
SWODY3
SPC AC 240730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
APPALACHIANS VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. OTHER POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.

...LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...
IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A FACTOR
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DESTABILIZATION/RELATED SEVERE
RISK EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THIS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY. WHILE THERE IS
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY...THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND RELATED MID/UPPER JET WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
MIDWEST DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. AS STORMS INCREASE/INTENSIFY INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY AND A RELATIVELY
STRONG WIND FIELD /PARTICULARLY TN VALLEY NORTHWARD/ COULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARKS...
WHILE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAK UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF RISING UPPER HEIGHTS...AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK MAY
EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PERIOD AND
A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE IN PLACE BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE AND NEAR/SOUTHEAST
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO
VALLEY. STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE STORMS POTENTIALLY OTHERWISE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS VICINITY WITH AID OF INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240712
TXZ000-240845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX GULF COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201...

VALID 240712Z - 240845Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG GUSTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A QLCS MOVING NE FROM THE CORPUS
CHRISTI METRO AREA AND E TOWARDS THE BROWNSVILLE METRO AREA. NEW WW
ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY DOWNSTREAM BUT LOCAL WFO EXTENSION IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...MORE INTENSE PORTIONS OF A QLCS ALONG THE LOWER TX GULF
COAST APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING NEWD FROM THE CRP METRO AREA AHEAD OF AN
MCV CENTERED OVER MCMULLEN AND LIVE OAK COUNTIES...WITH A MORE
EWD-PROPAGATING COMPONENT ACROSS DEEP S TX. A 44 KT WIND GUST WAS
MEASURED AT KCRP AND 40 KT AT KHRL IN THE PAST HOUR. THESE STRONG
GUSTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

WAA-DRIVEN CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE MIDDLE TX GULF COAST SHOULD
FOSTER MERGING UPDRAFTS AHEAD OF THE MCV AND PERSISTENCE OF THE QLCS
FARTHER UP THE TX COAST THIS MORNING. WITH PREDOMINATELY MERIDIONAL
DEEP-LAYER FLOW PARALLELING THE ORIENTATION OF THE LINE...THE
OVERALL SEVERE RISK DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO INCREASE AND SHOULD
REMAIN SPATIALLY CONFINED NEAR THE COAST.

..GRAMS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   28449734 28749721 29229644 29589586 29599549 29379518
            29099510 28639580 27979686 26089711 25849746 25959770
            26899738 27739711 28449734





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240712
TXZ000-240845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX GULF COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201...

VALID 240712Z - 240845Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG GUSTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A QLCS MOVING NE FROM THE CORPUS
CHRISTI METRO AREA AND E TOWARDS THE BROWNSVILLE METRO AREA. NEW WW
ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY DOWNSTREAM BUT LOCAL WFO EXTENSION IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...MORE INTENSE PORTIONS OF A QLCS ALONG THE LOWER TX GULF
COAST APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING NEWD FROM THE CRP METRO AREA AHEAD OF AN
MCV CENTERED OVER MCMULLEN AND LIVE OAK COUNTIES...WITH A MORE
EWD-PROPAGATING COMPONENT ACROSS DEEP S TX. A 44 KT WIND GUST WAS
MEASURED AT KCRP AND 40 KT AT KHRL IN THE PAST HOUR. THESE STRONG
GUSTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

WAA-DRIVEN CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE MIDDLE TX GULF COAST SHOULD
FOSTER MERGING UPDRAFTS AHEAD OF THE MCV AND PERSISTENCE OF THE QLCS
FARTHER UP THE TX COAST THIS MORNING. WITH PREDOMINATELY MERIDIONAL
DEEP-LAYER FLOW PARALLELING THE ORIENTATION OF THE LINE...THE
OVERALL SEVERE RISK DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO INCREASE AND SHOULD
REMAIN SPATIALLY CONFINED NEAR THE COAST.

..GRAMS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   28449734 28749721 29229644 29589586 29599549 29379518
            29099510 28639580 27979686 26089711 25849746 25959770
            26899738 27739711 28449734






000
ACUS11 KWNS 240713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240712
TXZ000-240845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX GULF COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201...

VALID 240712Z - 240845Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG GUSTS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A QLCS MOVING NE FROM THE CORPUS
CHRISTI METRO AREA AND E TOWARDS THE BROWNSVILLE METRO AREA. NEW WW
ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY DOWNSTREAM BUT LOCAL WFO EXTENSION IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...MORE INTENSE PORTIONS OF A QLCS ALONG THE LOWER TX GULF
COAST APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING NEWD FROM THE CRP METRO AREA AHEAD OF AN
MCV CENTERED OVER MCMULLEN AND LIVE OAK COUNTIES...WITH A MORE
EWD-PROPAGATING COMPONENT ACROSS DEEP S TX. A 44 KT WIND GUST WAS
MEASURED AT KCRP AND 40 KT AT KHRL IN THE PAST HOUR. THESE STRONG
GUSTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

WAA-DRIVEN CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE MIDDLE TX GULF COAST SHOULD
FOSTER MERGING UPDRAFTS AHEAD OF THE MCV AND PERSISTENCE OF THE QLCS
FARTHER UP THE TX COAST THIS MORNING. WITH PREDOMINATELY MERIDIONAL
DEEP-LAYER FLOW PARALLELING THE ORIENTATION OF THE LINE...THE
OVERALL SEVERE RISK DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO INCREASE AND SHOULD
REMAIN SPATIALLY CONFINED NEAR THE COAST.

..GRAMS.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   28449734 28749721 29229644 29589586 29599549 29379518
            29099510 28639580 27979686 26089711 25849746 25959770
            26899738 27739711 28449734





000
ACUS01 KWNS 240549
SWODY1
SPC AC 240547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR SOUTH ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN PROMINENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO ITS NORTHWEST APPEARS LIKELY TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS THE BULK OF BROADER SCALE
TROUGHING WITHIN ONE BRANCH OF THE SPLIT MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS EAST OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THIS LATTER FEATURE IS COMPRISED OF A NUMBER OF SMALLER SCALE
PERTURBATIONS...SOME OF WHICH ARE ALREADY SUPPORTING CONSIDERABLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHERE
A RETURN FLOW OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IS ONGOING AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS
MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE
1.75 INCHES...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD...FROM
THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER
HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE IMPACT OF THE REMNANTS OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...WHICH
PROBABLY WILL LINGER THIS MORNING ACROSS A CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF
THE LOWER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY...ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY REMAIN UNCLEAR.
BUT THE VARIOUS MODELS DO INDICATE THAT AT LEAST ONE SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL ACCELERATE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD...FROM THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AT 12Z THIS MORNING...THROUGH THE MID/LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY.  AS THIS OCCURS...GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE THAT SOUTHERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 30-50+ KT WITHIN A BELT OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS AND LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT.

...SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
THE EASTERN/LEADING EDGE OF CONGLOMERATE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
CURRENTLY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM PARTS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN TEXAS AT 12Z THIS
MORNING.  AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING /UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F DEW
POINTS/ AND INSOLATION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MODEST
CAPE /1000-2000 J PER KG/.  IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...THE ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY WILL BECOME
CONDUCIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS.  DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE...WITH THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AS ACTIVITY SPREADS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE ARKLATEX VICINITY THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES
MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

...CENTRAL HIGH PAINS INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MODELS SUGGEST MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE
BENEATH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALONG THE DRYLINE...FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS.  THIS WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT POTENTIALLY CONDUCIVE TO
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR AND
MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE EXPECTED TO BE MIGRATING ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING PEAK HEATING...IS MORE UNCLEAR.  AT LEAST A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION.

..KERR/PICCA.. 05/24/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 240549
SWODY1
SPC AC 240547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR SOUTH ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN PROMINENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO ITS NORTHWEST APPEARS LIKELY TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS THE BULK OF BROADER SCALE
TROUGHING WITHIN ONE BRANCH OF THE SPLIT MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS EAST OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THIS LATTER FEATURE IS COMPRISED OF A NUMBER OF SMALLER SCALE
PERTURBATIONS...SOME OF WHICH ARE ALREADY SUPPORTING CONSIDERABLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHERE
A RETURN FLOW OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IS ONGOING AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS
MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE
1.75 INCHES...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD...FROM
THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER
HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE IMPACT OF THE REMNANTS OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...WHICH
PROBABLY WILL LINGER THIS MORNING ACROSS A CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF
THE LOWER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY...ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY REMAIN UNCLEAR.
BUT THE VARIOUS MODELS DO INDICATE THAT AT LEAST ONE SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL ACCELERATE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD...FROM THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AT 12Z THIS MORNING...THROUGH THE MID/LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY.  AS THIS OCCURS...GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE THAT SOUTHERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 30-50+ KT WITHIN A BELT OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS AND LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT.

...SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
THE EASTERN/LEADING EDGE OF CONGLOMERATE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
CURRENTLY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM PARTS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN TEXAS AT 12Z THIS
MORNING.  AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING /UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F DEW
POINTS/ AND INSOLATION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MODEST
CAPE /1000-2000 J PER KG/.  IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...THE ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY WILL BECOME
CONDUCIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS.  DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE...WITH THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AS ACTIVITY SPREADS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE ARKLATEX VICINITY THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES
MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

...CENTRAL HIGH PAINS INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MODELS SUGGEST MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE
BENEATH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALONG THE DRYLINE...FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS.  THIS WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT POTENTIALLY CONDUCIVE TO
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR AND
MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE EXPECTED TO BE MIGRATING ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING PEAK HEATING...IS MORE UNCLEAR.  AT LEAST A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION.

..KERR/PICCA.. 05/24/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 240549
SWODY1
SPC AC 240547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR SOUTH ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN PROMINENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO ITS NORTHWEST APPEARS LIKELY TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS THE BULK OF BROADER SCALE
TROUGHING WITHIN ONE BRANCH OF THE SPLIT MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS EAST OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

THIS LATTER FEATURE IS COMPRISED OF A NUMBER OF SMALLER SCALE
PERTURBATIONS...SOME OF WHICH ARE ALREADY SUPPORTING CONSIDERABLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHERE
A RETURN FLOW OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IS ONGOING AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS
MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE
1.75 INCHES...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD...FROM
THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER
HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE IMPACT OF THE REMNANTS OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...WHICH
PROBABLY WILL LINGER THIS MORNING ACROSS A CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF
THE LOWER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY...ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY REMAIN UNCLEAR.
BUT THE VARIOUS MODELS DO INDICATE THAT AT LEAST ONE SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL ACCELERATE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD...FROM THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AT 12Z THIS MORNING...THROUGH THE MID/LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY.  AS THIS OCCURS...GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE THAT SOUTHERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 30-50+ KT WITHIN A BELT OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS AND LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT.

...SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
THE EASTERN/LEADING EDGE OF CONGLOMERATE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
CURRENTLY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM PARTS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN TEXAS AT 12Z THIS
MORNING.  AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING /UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F DEW
POINTS/ AND INSOLATION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MODEST
CAPE /1000-2000 J PER KG/.  IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...THE ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY WILL BECOME
CONDUCIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS.  DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE...WITH THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AS ACTIVITY SPREADS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE ARKLATEX VICINITY THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES
MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

...CENTRAL HIGH PAINS INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MODELS SUGGEST MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE
BENEATH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALONG THE DRYLINE...FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS.  THIS WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT POTENTIALLY CONDUCIVE TO
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR AND
MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE EXPECTED TO BE MIGRATING ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING PEAK HEATING...IS MORE UNCLEAR.  AT LEAST A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION.

..KERR/PICCA.. 05/24/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 240500
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240459
TXZ000-240630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY/HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 240459Z - 240630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS INCREASING ALONG THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY COULD
POSE A SEVERE HAIL AND/OR MARGINAL WIND THREAT...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF STORMS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEY IN AREAS NEAR/NORTHEAST OF THE DEL RIO AREA. IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE STORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR/NORTH OF PRIOR
OUTFLOW...AND SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD GENERALLY ATOP A SURFACE COLD
POOL CENTERED NEAR THE SAN ANTONIO AREA/ADJACENT HILL COUNTRY. WHILE
SOME SEVERE HAIL/PERHAPS A WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THE
PRIMARY IMPACT /OUTSIDE OF TORNADO WATCH 198/.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29160078 30220007 30629914 30019858 28689973 29160078





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240500
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240459
TXZ000-240630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY/HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 240459Z - 240630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS INCREASING ALONG THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY COULD
POSE A SEVERE HAIL AND/OR MARGINAL WIND THREAT...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF STORMS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEY IN AREAS NEAR/NORTHEAST OF THE DEL RIO AREA. IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE STORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR/NORTH OF PRIOR
OUTFLOW...AND SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD GENERALLY ATOP A SURFACE COLD
POOL CENTERED NEAR THE SAN ANTONIO AREA/ADJACENT HILL COUNTRY. WHILE
SOME SEVERE HAIL/PERHAPS A WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THE
PRIMARY IMPACT /OUTSIDE OF TORNADO WATCH 198/.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29160078 30220007 30629914 30019858 28689973 29160078





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240500
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240459
TXZ000-240630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY/HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 240459Z - 240630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS INCREASING ALONG THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY COULD
POSE A SEVERE HAIL AND/OR MARGINAL WIND THREAT...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF STORMS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEY IN AREAS NEAR/NORTHEAST OF THE DEL RIO AREA. IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE STORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR/NORTH OF PRIOR
OUTFLOW...AND SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD GENERALLY ATOP A SURFACE COLD
POOL CENTERED NEAR THE SAN ANTONIO AREA/ADJACENT HILL COUNTRY. WHILE
SOME SEVERE HAIL/PERHAPS A WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THE
PRIMARY IMPACT /OUTSIDE OF TORNADO WATCH 198/.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29160078 30220007 30629914 30019858 28689973 29160078





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240500
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240459
TXZ000-240630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY/HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 240459Z - 240630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS INCREASING ALONG THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY COULD
POSE A SEVERE HAIL AND/OR MARGINAL WIND THREAT...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF STORMS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEY IN AREAS NEAR/NORTHEAST OF THE DEL RIO AREA. IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE STORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR/NORTH OF PRIOR
OUTFLOW...AND SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD GENERALLY ATOP A SURFACE COLD
POOL CENTERED NEAR THE SAN ANTONIO AREA/ADJACENT HILL COUNTRY. WHILE
SOME SEVERE HAIL/PERHAPS A WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THE
PRIMARY IMPACT /OUTSIDE OF TORNADO WATCH 198/.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29160078 30220007 30629914 30019858 28689973 29160078






000
ACUS11 KWNS 240500
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240459
TXZ000-240630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY/HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 240459Z - 240630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS INCREASING ALONG THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY COULD
POSE A SEVERE HAIL AND/OR MARGINAL WIND THREAT...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF STORMS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEY IN AREAS NEAR/NORTHEAST OF THE DEL RIO AREA. IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE STORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR/NORTH OF PRIOR
OUTFLOW...AND SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD GENERALLY ATOP A SURFACE COLD
POOL CENTERED NEAR THE SAN ANTONIO AREA/ADJACENT HILL COUNTRY. WHILE
SOME SEVERE HAIL/PERHAPS A WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THE
PRIMARY IMPACT /OUTSIDE OF TORNADO WATCH 198/.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29160078 30220007 30629914 30019858 28689973 29160078






000
ACUS11 KWNS 240500
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240459
TXZ000-240630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY/HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 240459Z - 240630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS INCREASING ALONG THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY COULD
POSE A SEVERE HAIL AND/OR MARGINAL WIND THREAT...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF STORMS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEY IN AREAS NEAR/NORTHEAST OF THE DEL RIO AREA. IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE STORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR/NORTH OF PRIOR
OUTFLOW...AND SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD GENERALLY ATOP A SURFACE COLD
POOL CENTERED NEAR THE SAN ANTONIO AREA/ADJACENT HILL COUNTRY. WHILE
SOME SEVERE HAIL/PERHAPS A WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE...THE OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THE
PRIMARY IMPACT /OUTSIDE OF TORNADO WATCH 198/.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29160078 30220007 30629914 30019858 28689973 29160078





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240453
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240452
TXZ000-240615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0735
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201...

VALID 240452Z - 240615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX OVERNIGHT AND POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
POTENTIALLY A BRIEF TORNADO RISK.

DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX AS OF 0445Z/1145 PM CDT. UPDRAFT/CLOUD-GROUND
LIGHTNING INTENSITY APPEAR TO HAVE MODESTLY WANED OVER THE PAST
HALF-HOUR...BUT VERY MOIST EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WITH
MIDDLE 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY HELP SUSTAIN THE STRONG
TO SEVERE SQUALL LINE EASTWARD TOWARD/OFF THE SOUTH TX COAST
OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR
AMID RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SRH PER BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D VWP
DATA.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   26309875 26919853 27799867 27939720 26029700 26309875





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240453
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240452
TXZ000-240615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0735
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201...

VALID 240452Z - 240615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX OVERNIGHT AND POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
POTENTIALLY A BRIEF TORNADO RISK.

DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX AS OF 0445Z/1145 PM CDT. UPDRAFT/CLOUD-GROUND
LIGHTNING INTENSITY APPEAR TO HAVE MODESTLY WANED OVER THE PAST
HALF-HOUR...BUT VERY MOIST EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WITH
MIDDLE 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY HELP SUSTAIN THE STRONG
TO SEVERE SQUALL LINE EASTWARD TOWARD/OFF THE SOUTH TX COAST
OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR
AMID RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SRH PER BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D VWP
DATA.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   26309875 26919853 27799867 27939720 26029700 26309875





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240453
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240452
TXZ000-240615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0735
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201...

VALID 240452Z - 240615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TX OVERNIGHT AND POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
POTENTIALLY A BRIEF TORNADO RISK.

DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX AS OF 0445Z/1145 PM CDT. UPDRAFT/CLOUD-GROUND
LIGHTNING INTENSITY APPEAR TO HAVE MODESTLY WANED OVER THE PAST
HALF-HOUR...BUT VERY MOIST EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WITH
MIDDLE 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY HELP SUSTAIN THE STRONG
TO SEVERE SQUALL LINE EASTWARD TOWARD/OFF THE SOUTH TX COAST
OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR
AMID RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SRH PER BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D VWP
DATA.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON   26309875 26919853 27799867 27939720 26029700 26309875






000
ACUS11 KWNS 240432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240432
TXZ000-240600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL/NORTH TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 198...200...

VALID 240432Z - 240600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 198...200...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITHIN A
BROAD NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/
EAST-CENTRAL/NORTH TX OVERNIGHT. TORNADO WATCHES 198 AND 200
CONTINUE UNTIL 08Z AND 09Z RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...A NORTHEASTWARD-BOWING SQUALL LINE WITH A NORTH-SIDE
EMBEDDED COMMAHEAD VORTEX CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR TOWARD EAST-CENTRAL TX...WITH AID OF A STRONG REAR INFLOW
JET/PROBABLE MCV PER CENTRAL TX WSR-88D VWP DATA. ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THESE
STORMS. ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THIS SQUALL LINE...MORE INTENSE
STORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST/REDEVELOP PARTICULARLY JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE SAN ANTONIO AREA. MEANWHILE...OTHER STORMS COULD
INTENSIFY/EXHIBIT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX IN AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I-35 AMID A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS /LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND INCREASINGLY
STRONG/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   31079771 32169750 33499651 33669542 32749546 31519521
            30209564 29029683 28289846 28949920 29869750 30299713
            30819771 31079771





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240432
TXZ000-240600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL/NORTH TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 198...200...

VALID 240432Z - 240600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 198...200...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITHIN A
BROAD NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/
EAST-CENTRAL/NORTH TX OVERNIGHT. TORNADO WATCHES 198 AND 200
CONTINUE UNTIL 08Z AND 09Z RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...A NORTHEASTWARD-BOWING SQUALL LINE WITH A NORTH-SIDE
EMBEDDED COMMAHEAD VORTEX CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR TOWARD EAST-CENTRAL TX...WITH AID OF A STRONG REAR INFLOW
JET/PROBABLE MCV PER CENTRAL TX WSR-88D VWP DATA. ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THESE
STORMS. ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THIS SQUALL LINE...MORE INTENSE
STORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST/REDEVELOP PARTICULARLY JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE SAN ANTONIO AREA. MEANWHILE...OTHER STORMS COULD
INTENSIFY/EXHIBIT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX IN AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I-35 AMID A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS /LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND INCREASINGLY
STRONG/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   31079771 32169750 33499651 33669542 32749546 31519521
            30209564 29029683 28289846 28949920 29869750 30299713
            30819771 31079771





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240432
TXZ000-240600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL/NORTH TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 198...200...

VALID 240432Z - 240600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 198...200...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITHIN A
BROAD NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/
EAST-CENTRAL/NORTH TX OVERNIGHT. TORNADO WATCHES 198 AND 200
CONTINUE UNTIL 08Z AND 09Z RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...A NORTHEASTWARD-BOWING SQUALL LINE WITH A NORTH-SIDE
EMBEDDED COMMAHEAD VORTEX CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR TOWARD EAST-CENTRAL TX...WITH AID OF A STRONG REAR INFLOW
JET/PROBABLE MCV PER CENTRAL TX WSR-88D VWP DATA. ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THESE
STORMS. ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THIS SQUALL LINE...MORE INTENSE
STORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST/REDEVELOP PARTICULARLY JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE SAN ANTONIO AREA. MEANWHILE...OTHER STORMS COULD
INTENSIFY/EXHIBIT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX IN AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I-35 AMID A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS /LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND INCREASINGLY
STRONG/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   31079771 32169750 33499651 33669542 32749546 31519521
            30209564 29029683 28289846 28949920 29869750 30299713
            30819771 31079771





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240432
TXZ000-240600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL/NORTH TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 198...200...

VALID 240432Z - 240600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 198...200...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITHIN A
BROAD NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/
EAST-CENTRAL/NORTH TX OVERNIGHT. TORNADO WATCHES 198 AND 200
CONTINUE UNTIL 08Z AND 09Z RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...A NORTHEASTWARD-BOWING SQUALL LINE WITH A NORTH-SIDE
EMBEDDED COMMAHEAD VORTEX CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR TOWARD EAST-CENTRAL TX...WITH AID OF A STRONG REAR INFLOW
JET/PROBABLE MCV PER CENTRAL TX WSR-88D VWP DATA. ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THESE
STORMS. ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THIS SQUALL LINE...MORE INTENSE
STORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST/REDEVELOP PARTICULARLY JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE SAN ANTONIO AREA. MEANWHILE...OTHER STORMS COULD
INTENSIFY/EXHIBIT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX IN AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I-35 AMID A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS /LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND INCREASINGLY
STRONG/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   31079771 32169750 33499651 33669542 32749546 31519521
            30209564 29029683 28289846 28949920 29869750 30299713
            30819771 31079771






000
ACUS11 KWNS 240432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240432
TXZ000-240600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL/NORTH TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 198...200...

VALID 240432Z - 240600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 198...200...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITHIN A
BROAD NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/
EAST-CENTRAL/NORTH TX OVERNIGHT. TORNADO WATCHES 198 AND 200
CONTINUE UNTIL 08Z AND 09Z RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...A NORTHEASTWARD-BOWING SQUALL LINE WITH A NORTH-SIDE
EMBEDDED COMMAHEAD VORTEX CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR TOWARD EAST-CENTRAL TX...WITH AID OF A STRONG REAR INFLOW
JET/PROBABLE MCV PER CENTRAL TX WSR-88D VWP DATA. ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THESE
STORMS. ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THIS SQUALL LINE...MORE INTENSE
STORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST/REDEVELOP PARTICULARLY JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE SAN ANTONIO AREA. MEANWHILE...OTHER STORMS COULD
INTENSIFY/EXHIBIT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX IN AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I-35 AMID A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS /LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND INCREASINGLY
STRONG/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   31079771 32169750 33499651 33669542 32749546 31519521
            30209564 29029683 28289846 28949920 29869750 30299713
            30819771 31079771





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240432
TXZ000-240600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL/NORTH TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 198...200...

VALID 240432Z - 240600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 198...200...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL CONTINUES WITHIN A
BROAD NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/
EAST-CENTRAL/NORTH TX OVERNIGHT. TORNADO WATCHES 198 AND 200
CONTINUE UNTIL 08Z AND 09Z RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...A NORTHEASTWARD-BOWING SQUALL LINE WITH A NORTH-SIDE
EMBEDDED COMMAHEAD VORTEX CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR TOWARD EAST-CENTRAL TX...WITH AID OF A STRONG REAR INFLOW
JET/PROBABLE MCV PER CENTRAL TX WSR-88D VWP DATA. ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THESE
STORMS. ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THIS SQUALL LINE...MORE INTENSE
STORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST/REDEVELOP PARTICULARLY JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE SAN ANTONIO AREA. MEANWHILE...OTHER STORMS COULD
INTENSIFY/EXHIBIT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX IN AREAS NEAR/EAST OF I-35 AMID A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS /LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND INCREASINGLY
STRONG/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   31079771 32169750 33499651 33669542 32749546 31519521
            30209564 29029683 28289846 28949920 29869750 30299713
            30819771 31079771






000
ACUS02 KWNS 240418
SWODY2
SPC AC 240416

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM TEXAS INTO THE
MID SOUTH REGION ON MEMORIAL DAY.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY.  GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS TEXAS WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

...CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES...

ACTIVE SRN BRANCH OF JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY2
PERIOD.  LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT EJECTS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY
SUNRISE MEMORIAL DAY.  DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL ENHANCE ASCENT AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD.  FORECAST INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT WEAK AHEAD OF SFC LOW
AND WHILE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE FROM THE MN/IA
BORDER INTO WI...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DUE
TO WEAK BUOYANCY.  ISOLATED HAIL/WIND ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING FRONT WITHIN
NEUTRAL-WEAKLY SUBSIDENT POST-SHORT WAVE ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS NEBRASKA WHERE HAIL IS THE MAIN
THREAT.

...TX...

SECONDARY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER THE BIG
BEND/NRN MEXICO REGION EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD.  CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND ONE OR MORE
MCS-TYPE CLUSTERS SHOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS THE BODY OF TX AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE.  HAIL/WIND AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNDOES CAN BE EXPECTED.
 ANY DRY LINE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PROVE SPARSE WITHIN WEAKLY FORCED
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

..DARROW.. 05/24/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 240349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240349
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-240515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0733
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO AND
WESTERN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 199...

VALID 240349Z - 240515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 199 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A TORNADO/LOCALIZED WIND GUST THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL SHOULD
BECOME INCREASING MARGINAL/ISOLATED. TORNADO WATCH 199 CONTINUES
UNTIL 09Z.

DISCUSSION...THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SQUALL LINE ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST OK APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN A DIMINISHING INTENSITY TREND
OVER THE PAST HOUR...ALTHOUGH SOME STRONGER/POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUE ON ITS LEADING EDGE AND ITS IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST IN
VICINITY OF A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT AND RELATED
SPATIALLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF MARITIME AIR ACROSS EASTERN OK AND
WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST AR. A TORNADO/ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SOME SEVERE/TORNADO RISK COULD
CONTINUE INTO NEARBY WESTERN AR AND/OR FAR SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST
MO...BUT STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY OUTRUN THE MAIN
INSTABILITY/LOW-LEVEL JET CORRIDOR...SUCH THAN AN ADDITIONAL WATCH
ISSUANCE CURRENTLY SEEMS UNLIKELY.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   35509635 36409551 37009529 37259482 37119421 36369412
            35469366 34709387 33929527 34069590 35129590 35509635





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240349
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-240515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0733
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO AND
WESTERN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 199...

VALID 240349Z - 240515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 199 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A TORNADO/LOCALIZED WIND GUST THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL SHOULD
BECOME INCREASING MARGINAL/ISOLATED. TORNADO WATCH 199 CONTINUES
UNTIL 09Z.

DISCUSSION...THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SQUALL LINE ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST OK APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN A DIMINISHING INTENSITY TREND
OVER THE PAST HOUR...ALTHOUGH SOME STRONGER/POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUE ON ITS LEADING EDGE AND ITS IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST IN
VICINITY OF A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT AND RELATED
SPATIALLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF MARITIME AIR ACROSS EASTERN OK AND
WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST AR. A TORNADO/ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SOME SEVERE/TORNADO RISK COULD
CONTINUE INTO NEARBY WESTERN AR AND/OR FAR SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST
MO...BUT STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY OUTRUN THE MAIN
INSTABILITY/LOW-LEVEL JET CORRIDOR...SUCH THAN AN ADDITIONAL WATCH
ISSUANCE CURRENTLY SEEMS UNLIKELY.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   35509635 36409551 37009529 37259482 37119421 36369412
            35469366 34709387 33929527 34069590 35129590 35509635





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240349
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-240515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0733
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO AND
WESTERN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 199...

VALID 240349Z - 240515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 199 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A TORNADO/LOCALIZED WIND GUST THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL SHOULD
BECOME INCREASING MARGINAL/ISOLATED. TORNADO WATCH 199 CONTINUES
UNTIL 09Z.

DISCUSSION...THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SQUALL LINE ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST OK APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN A DIMINISHING INTENSITY TREND
OVER THE PAST HOUR...ALTHOUGH SOME STRONGER/POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUE ON ITS LEADING EDGE AND ITS IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST IN
VICINITY OF A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT AND RELATED
SPATIALLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF MARITIME AIR ACROSS EASTERN OK AND
WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST AR. A TORNADO/ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SOME SEVERE/TORNADO RISK COULD
CONTINUE INTO NEARBY WESTERN AR AND/OR FAR SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST
MO...BUT STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY OUTRUN THE MAIN
INSTABILITY/LOW-LEVEL JET CORRIDOR...SUCH THAN AN ADDITIONAL WATCH
ISSUANCE CURRENTLY SEEMS UNLIKELY.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   35509635 36409551 37009529 37259482 37119421 36369412
            35469366 34709387 33929527 34069590 35129590 35509635






000
ACUS11 KWNS 240349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240349
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-240515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0733
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO AND
WESTERN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 199...

VALID 240349Z - 240515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 199 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A TORNADO/LOCALIZED WIND GUST THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL POTENTIAL SHOULD
BECOME INCREASING MARGINAL/ISOLATED. TORNADO WATCH 199 CONTINUES
UNTIL 09Z.

DISCUSSION...THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SQUALL LINE ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST OK APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN A DIMINISHING INTENSITY TREND
OVER THE PAST HOUR...ALTHOUGH SOME STRONGER/POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUE ON ITS LEADING EDGE AND ITS IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST IN
VICINITY OF A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT AND RELATED
SPATIALLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF MARITIME AIR ACROSS EASTERN OK AND
WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST AR. A TORNADO/ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SOME SEVERE/TORNADO RISK COULD
CONTINUE INTO NEARBY WESTERN AR AND/OR FAR SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST
MO...BUT STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY OUTRUN THE MAIN
INSTABILITY/LOW-LEVEL JET CORRIDOR...SUCH THAN AN ADDITIONAL WATCH
ISSUANCE CURRENTLY SEEMS UNLIKELY.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   35509635 36409551 37009529 37259482 37119421 36369412
            35469366 34709387 33929527 34069590 35129590 35509635






000
ACUS11 KWNS 240246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240246
TXZ000-240415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0732
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 240246Z - 240415Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO AND LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE RISK MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX THROUGH LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

DISCUSSION...AN ASYMMETRIC SQUALL LINE EVOLUTION APPEARS TO BE
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL TX GENERALLY NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING AN NORTH-SIDE EMBEDDED COMMAHEAD CIRCULATION
NORTHWEST OF THE AUSTIN AREA AS OF 945 PM CDT. THIS CIRCULATION
COULD PERSIST OUTSIDE OF TORNADO WATCH 198...WHILE OTHER STORMS HAVE
RECENTLY REDEVELOPED/INCREASED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
METROPLEX. EARLIER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH AND MORE
RECENT WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM KFWS SUPPORTS AROUND 225-275 M2/S2 OF
0-1 KM SRH. PARTICULARLY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE OF A
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET POSSIBLE TONIGHT...A TORNADO/LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGE RISK MAY INCREASE THROUGH LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30219729 31089805 31819781 33199727 32969566 31619525
            29179633 30219729





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240246
TXZ000-240415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0732
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 240246Z - 240415Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO AND LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE RISK MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX THROUGH LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

DISCUSSION...AN ASYMMETRIC SQUALL LINE EVOLUTION APPEARS TO BE
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL TX GENERALLY NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING AN NORTH-SIDE EMBEDDED COMMAHEAD CIRCULATION
NORTHWEST OF THE AUSTIN AREA AS OF 945 PM CDT. THIS CIRCULATION
COULD PERSIST OUTSIDE OF TORNADO WATCH 198...WHILE OTHER STORMS HAVE
RECENTLY REDEVELOPED/INCREASED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
METROPLEX. EARLIER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH AND MORE
RECENT WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM KFWS SUPPORTS AROUND 225-275 M2/S2 OF
0-1 KM SRH. PARTICULARLY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE OF A
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET POSSIBLE TONIGHT...A TORNADO/LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGE RISK MAY INCREASE THROUGH LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30219729 31089805 31819781 33199727 32969566 31619525
            29179633 30219729






000
ACUS11 KWNS 240246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240246
TXZ000-240415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0732
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 240246Z - 240415Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO AND LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE RISK MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX THROUGH LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

DISCUSSION...AN ASYMMETRIC SQUALL LINE EVOLUTION APPEARS TO BE
OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL TX GENERALLY NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING AN NORTH-SIDE EMBEDDED COMMAHEAD CIRCULATION
NORTHWEST OF THE AUSTIN AREA AS OF 945 PM CDT. THIS CIRCULATION
COULD PERSIST OUTSIDE OF TORNADO WATCH 198...WHILE OTHER STORMS HAVE
RECENTLY REDEVELOPED/INCREASED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
METROPLEX. EARLIER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH AND MORE
RECENT WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM KFWS SUPPORTS AROUND 225-275 M2/S2 OF
0-1 KM SRH. PARTICULARLY WITH SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE OF A
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET POSSIBLE TONIGHT...A TORNADO/LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGE RISK MAY INCREASE THROUGH LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30219729 31089805 31819781 33199727 32969566 31619525
            29179633 30219729





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240157
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-240330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0731
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0857 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND PARTS OF NORTH
TX/WESTERN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 197...199...

VALID 240157Z - 240330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 197...199...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL ASIDE...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND RISK CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN OK THROUGH
MID/LATE EVENING...BUT POSSIBLY OTHER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX
AS WELL. TORNADO WATCHES 197 AND 199 CONTINUE UNTIL 07Z AND 09Z
RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...A COMPOSITE SQUALL LINE/RELATED OUTFLOW IS NOW
GENERALLY ORIENTED IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST FASHION FROM SOUTHWEST
OK/WESTERN NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL OK...WITH A MORE
EASTWARD-PROGRESSIVE PART OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS NORTHEAST OK
NEAR THE TULSA VICINITY AS OF 830 PM CDT/0130Z. TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE SQUALL LINE...SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS HAVE
TENDED TO SOMEWHAT DIMINISH AND/OR MERGE WITH THE SQUALL LINE OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO /PARTICULARLY SINCE SUNSET/ ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
OK. HOWEVER...TORNADO POTENTIAL NONETHELESS PERSISTS WITH MULTIPLE
SCENARIOS THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING.

FOR ONE...TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK WITH ONGOING SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS NEAR A WARM FRONT. SOME TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
ALSO EXIST A BIT FARTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OK COINCIDENT WITH A
MORE COMPLEX CONVECTIVE MODE. TULSA WSR-88D VWP REFLECTS VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...WITH 0-1 KM SRH ESTIMATED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 500
M2/S2.

ASIDE FROM EASTERN OK...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MODESTLY COOLED AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS WELL...ALTHOUGH A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS PERSISTS AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ONLY
INTENSIFY FURTHER TONIGHT. THE TORNADO RISK APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
POST-PEAK ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX.
HOWEVER...SOME TORNADO THREAT REMAINS MAINLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
HIGH PRECIPITATION/NEAR-BOUNDARY EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS WITHIN A
MOIST/HIGHLY SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...PARTICULARLY NEAR AN
OUTFLOW-RELATED TRIPLE POINT ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK/WESTERN NORTH TX.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   33549950 34239951 35469732 36209635 36849574 36899482
            35849427 34919431 33899524 33159726 33119874 33549950






000
ACUS11 KWNS 240157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240157
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-240330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0731
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0857 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND PARTS OF NORTH
TX/WESTERN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 197...199...

VALID 240157Z - 240330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 197...199...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL ASIDE...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND RISK CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN OK THROUGH
MID/LATE EVENING...BUT POSSIBLY OTHER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX
AS WELL. TORNADO WATCHES 197 AND 199 CONTINUE UNTIL 07Z AND 09Z
RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...A COMPOSITE SQUALL LINE/RELATED OUTFLOW IS NOW
GENERALLY ORIENTED IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST FASHION FROM SOUTHWEST
OK/WESTERN NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL OK...WITH A MORE
EASTWARD-PROGRESSIVE PART OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS NORTHEAST OK
NEAR THE TULSA VICINITY AS OF 830 PM CDT/0130Z. TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE SQUALL LINE...SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS HAVE
TENDED TO SOMEWHAT DIMINISH AND/OR MERGE WITH THE SQUALL LINE OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO /PARTICULARLY SINCE SUNSET/ ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
OK. HOWEVER...TORNADO POTENTIAL NONETHELESS PERSISTS WITH MULTIPLE
SCENARIOS THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING.

FOR ONE...TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK WITH ONGOING SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS NEAR A WARM FRONT. SOME TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
ALSO EXIST A BIT FARTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OK COINCIDENT WITH A
MORE COMPLEX CONVECTIVE MODE. TULSA WSR-88D VWP REFLECTS VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...WITH 0-1 KM SRH ESTIMATED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 500
M2/S2.

ASIDE FROM EASTERN OK...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MODESTLY COOLED AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS WELL...ALTHOUGH A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS PERSISTS AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ONLY
INTENSIFY FURTHER TONIGHT. THE TORNADO RISK APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
POST-PEAK ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX.
HOWEVER...SOME TORNADO THREAT REMAINS MAINLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
HIGH PRECIPITATION/NEAR-BOUNDARY EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS WITHIN A
MOIST/HIGHLY SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...PARTICULARLY NEAR AN
OUTFLOW-RELATED TRIPLE POINT ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK/WESTERN NORTH TX.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   33549950 34239951 35469732 36209635 36849574 36899482
            35849427 34919431 33899524 33159726 33119874 33549950





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240157
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-240330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0731
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0857 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND PARTS OF NORTH
TX/WESTERN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 197...199...

VALID 240157Z - 240330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 197...199...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL ASIDE...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND RISK CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN OK THROUGH
MID/LATE EVENING...BUT POSSIBLY OTHER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX
AS WELL. TORNADO WATCHES 197 AND 199 CONTINUE UNTIL 07Z AND 09Z
RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...A COMPOSITE SQUALL LINE/RELATED OUTFLOW IS NOW
GENERALLY ORIENTED IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST FASHION FROM SOUTHWEST
OK/WESTERN NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL OK...WITH A MORE
EASTWARD-PROGRESSIVE PART OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS NORTHEAST OK
NEAR THE TULSA VICINITY AS OF 830 PM CDT/0130Z. TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE SQUALL LINE...SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS HAVE
TENDED TO SOMEWHAT DIMINISH AND/OR MERGE WITH THE SQUALL LINE OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO /PARTICULARLY SINCE SUNSET/ ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
OK. HOWEVER...TORNADO POTENTIAL NONETHELESS PERSISTS WITH MULTIPLE
SCENARIOS THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING.

FOR ONE...TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK WITH ONGOING SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS NEAR A WARM FRONT. SOME TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
ALSO EXIST A BIT FARTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OK COINCIDENT WITH A
MORE COMPLEX CONVECTIVE MODE. TULSA WSR-88D VWP REFLECTS VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...WITH 0-1 KM SRH ESTIMATED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 500
M2/S2.

ASIDE FROM EASTERN OK...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MODESTLY COOLED AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS WELL...ALTHOUGH A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS PERSISTS AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ONLY
INTENSIFY FURTHER TONIGHT. THE TORNADO RISK APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
POST-PEAK ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX.
HOWEVER...SOME TORNADO THREAT REMAINS MAINLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
HIGH PRECIPITATION/NEAR-BOUNDARY EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS WITHIN A
MOIST/HIGHLY SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...PARTICULARLY NEAR AN
OUTFLOW-RELATED TRIPLE POINT ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK/WESTERN NORTH TX.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   33549950 34239951 35469732 36209635 36849574 36899482
            35849427 34919431 33899524 33159726 33119874 33549950





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240157
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-240330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0731
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0857 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND PARTS OF NORTH
TX/WESTERN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 197...199...

VALID 240157Z - 240330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 197...199...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL ASIDE...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND RISK CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN OK THROUGH
MID/LATE EVENING...BUT POSSIBLY OTHER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX
AS WELL. TORNADO WATCHES 197 AND 199 CONTINUE UNTIL 07Z AND 09Z
RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...A COMPOSITE SQUALL LINE/RELATED OUTFLOW IS NOW
GENERALLY ORIENTED IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST FASHION FROM SOUTHWEST
OK/WESTERN NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL OK...WITH A MORE
EASTWARD-PROGRESSIVE PART OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS NORTHEAST OK
NEAR THE TULSA VICINITY AS OF 830 PM CDT/0130Z. TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE SQUALL LINE...SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS HAVE
TENDED TO SOMEWHAT DIMINISH AND/OR MERGE WITH THE SQUALL LINE OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO /PARTICULARLY SINCE SUNSET/ ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
OK. HOWEVER...TORNADO POTENTIAL NONETHELESS PERSISTS WITH MULTIPLE
SCENARIOS THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING.

FOR ONE...TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK WITH ONGOING SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS NEAR A WARM FRONT. SOME TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
ALSO EXIST A BIT FARTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OK COINCIDENT WITH A
MORE COMPLEX CONVECTIVE MODE. TULSA WSR-88D VWP REFLECTS VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...WITH 0-1 KM SRH ESTIMATED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 500
M2/S2.

ASIDE FROM EASTERN OK...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MODESTLY COOLED AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS WELL...ALTHOUGH A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS PERSISTS AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ONLY
INTENSIFY FURTHER TONIGHT. THE TORNADO RISK APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
POST-PEAK ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX.
HOWEVER...SOME TORNADO THREAT REMAINS MAINLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
HIGH PRECIPITATION/NEAR-BOUNDARY EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS WITHIN A
MOIST/HIGHLY SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...PARTICULARLY NEAR AN
OUTFLOW-RELATED TRIPLE POINT ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK/WESTERN NORTH TX.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   33549950 34239951 35469732 36209635 36849574 36899482
            35849427 34919431 33899524 33159726 33119874 33549950





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240157
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-240330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0731
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0857 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND PARTS OF NORTH
TX/WESTERN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 197...199...

VALID 240157Z - 240330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 197...199...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL ASIDE...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND RISK CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN OK THROUGH
MID/LATE EVENING...BUT POSSIBLY OTHER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX
AS WELL. TORNADO WATCHES 197 AND 199 CONTINUE UNTIL 07Z AND 09Z
RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...A COMPOSITE SQUALL LINE/RELATED OUTFLOW IS NOW
GENERALLY ORIENTED IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST FASHION FROM SOUTHWEST
OK/WESTERN NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL OK...WITH A MORE
EASTWARD-PROGRESSIVE PART OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS NORTHEAST OK
NEAR THE TULSA VICINITY AS OF 830 PM CDT/0130Z. TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE SQUALL LINE...SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS HAVE
TENDED TO SOMEWHAT DIMINISH AND/OR MERGE WITH THE SQUALL LINE OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO /PARTICULARLY SINCE SUNSET/ ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
OK. HOWEVER...TORNADO POTENTIAL NONETHELESS PERSISTS WITH MULTIPLE
SCENARIOS THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING.

FOR ONE...TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK WITH ONGOING SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS NEAR A WARM FRONT. SOME TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
ALSO EXIST A BIT FARTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OK COINCIDENT WITH A
MORE COMPLEX CONVECTIVE MODE. TULSA WSR-88D VWP REFLECTS VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...WITH 0-1 KM SRH ESTIMATED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 500
M2/S2.

ASIDE FROM EASTERN OK...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MODESTLY COOLED AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS WELL...ALTHOUGH A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS PERSISTS AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ONLY
INTENSIFY FURTHER TONIGHT. THE TORNADO RISK APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
POST-PEAK ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX.
HOWEVER...SOME TORNADO THREAT REMAINS MAINLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
HIGH PRECIPITATION/NEAR-BOUNDARY EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS WITHIN A
MOIST/HIGHLY SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...PARTICULARLY NEAR AN
OUTFLOW-RELATED TRIPLE POINT ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK/WESTERN NORTH TX.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   33549950 34239951 35469732 36209635 36849574 36899482
            35849427 34919431 33899524 33159726 33119874 33549950





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240157
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-240330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0731
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0857 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND PARTS OF NORTH
TX/WESTERN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 197...199...

VALID 240157Z - 240330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 197...199...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL ASIDE...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND RISK CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN OK THROUGH
MID/LATE EVENING...BUT POSSIBLY OTHER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX
AS WELL. TORNADO WATCHES 197 AND 199 CONTINUE UNTIL 07Z AND 09Z
RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...A COMPOSITE SQUALL LINE/RELATED OUTFLOW IS NOW
GENERALLY ORIENTED IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST FASHION FROM SOUTHWEST
OK/WESTERN NORTH TX INTO CENTRAL OK...WITH A MORE
EASTWARD-PROGRESSIVE PART OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS NORTHEAST OK
NEAR THE TULSA VICINITY AS OF 830 PM CDT/0130Z. TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE SQUALL LINE...SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS HAVE
TENDED TO SOMEWHAT DIMINISH AND/OR MERGE WITH THE SQUALL LINE OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO /PARTICULARLY SINCE SUNSET/ ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
OK. HOWEVER...TORNADO POTENTIAL NONETHELESS PERSISTS WITH MULTIPLE
SCENARIOS THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING.

FOR ONE...TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK WITH ONGOING SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS NEAR A WARM FRONT. SOME TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
ALSO EXIST A BIT FARTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST OK COINCIDENT WITH A
MORE COMPLEX CONVECTIVE MODE. TULSA WSR-88D VWP REFLECTS VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...WITH 0-1 KM SRH ESTIMATED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 500
M2/S2.

ASIDE FROM EASTERN OK...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MODESTLY COOLED AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS WELL...ALTHOUGH A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS PERSISTS AND A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ONLY
INTENSIFY FURTHER TONIGHT. THE TORNADO RISK APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
POST-PEAK ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX.
HOWEVER...SOME TORNADO THREAT REMAINS MAINLY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
HIGH PRECIPITATION/NEAR-BOUNDARY EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS WITHIN A
MOIST/HIGHLY SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...PARTICULARLY NEAR AN
OUTFLOW-RELATED TRIPLE POINT ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK/WESTERN NORTH TX.

..GUYER.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   33549950 34239951 35469732 36209635 36849574 36899482
            35849427 34919431 33899524 33159726 33119874 33549950






000
ACUS11 KWNS 240139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240139
TXZ000-240345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0839 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 198...

VALID 240139Z - 240345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 198 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS
CONTINUES ACROSS WW 198.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST RECENT WSR-88D/MRMS DATA ILLUSTRATE A BROKEN
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM LA SALLE CO NEWD
TO TRAVIS CO. SEVERAL EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS BAND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. INDEED...KEWX VWP DATA PRESENT FAVORABLE SHEAR NEAR THE
SFC...WITH 0-1 KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 200-250 M2/S2. IN COMBINATION
WITH VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /MEAN MIXING RATIO VALUES OF 15-17
G PER KG BASED UPON OBSERVED AND FCST SOUNDINGS/ AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...SUCH A WIND PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR TRANSIENT ROTATING
STRUCTURES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS SUCH...THE THREAT FOR A FEW
TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUES WITH THESE CELLS IN
WW 198...AND WILL POTENTIALLY BE MAINTAINED BY INCREASING 850-MB
FLOW THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

..PICCA.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   27799922 28239946 28729947 29579904 30679849 30819805
            30489719 30219678 29819660 28959697 27929759 27759813
            27799922






000
ACUS11 KWNS 240139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240139
TXZ000-240345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0839 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 198...

VALID 240139Z - 240345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 198 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS
CONTINUES ACROSS WW 198.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST RECENT WSR-88D/MRMS DATA ILLUSTRATE A BROKEN
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM LA SALLE CO NEWD
TO TRAVIS CO. SEVERAL EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS BAND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. INDEED...KEWX VWP DATA PRESENT FAVORABLE SHEAR NEAR THE
SFC...WITH 0-1 KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 200-250 M2/S2. IN COMBINATION
WITH VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /MEAN MIXING RATIO VALUES OF 15-17
G PER KG BASED UPON OBSERVED AND FCST SOUNDINGS/ AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...SUCH A WIND PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR TRANSIENT ROTATING
STRUCTURES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS SUCH...THE THREAT FOR A FEW
TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUES WITH THESE CELLS IN
WW 198...AND WILL POTENTIALLY BE MAINTAINED BY INCREASING 850-MB
FLOW THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

..PICCA.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   27799922 28239946 28729947 29579904 30679849 30819805
            30489719 30219678 29819660 28959697 27929759 27759813
            27799922





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240139
TXZ000-240345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0839 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 198...

VALID 240139Z - 240345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 198 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS
CONTINUES ACROSS WW 198.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST RECENT WSR-88D/MRMS DATA ILLUSTRATE A BROKEN
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM LA SALLE CO NEWD
TO TRAVIS CO. SEVERAL EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS BAND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. INDEED...KEWX VWP DATA PRESENT FAVORABLE SHEAR NEAR THE
SFC...WITH 0-1 KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 200-250 M2/S2. IN COMBINATION
WITH VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /MEAN MIXING RATIO VALUES OF 15-17
G PER KG BASED UPON OBSERVED AND FCST SOUNDINGS/ AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...SUCH A WIND PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR TRANSIENT ROTATING
STRUCTURES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS SUCH...THE THREAT FOR A FEW
TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUES WITH THESE CELLS IN
WW 198...AND WILL POTENTIALLY BE MAINTAINED BY INCREASING 850-MB
FLOW THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

..PICCA.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   27799922 28239946 28729947 29579904 30679849 30819805
            30489719 30219678 29819660 28959697 27929759 27759813
            27799922





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240139
TXZ000-240345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0839 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 198...

VALID 240139Z - 240345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 198 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS
CONTINUES ACROSS WW 198.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST RECENT WSR-88D/MRMS DATA ILLUSTRATE A BROKEN
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM LA SALLE CO NEWD
TO TRAVIS CO. SEVERAL EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS BAND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. INDEED...KEWX VWP DATA PRESENT FAVORABLE SHEAR NEAR THE
SFC...WITH 0-1 KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 200-250 M2/S2. IN COMBINATION
WITH VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /MEAN MIXING RATIO VALUES OF 15-17
G PER KG BASED UPON OBSERVED AND FCST SOUNDINGS/ AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...SUCH A WIND PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR TRANSIENT ROTATING
STRUCTURES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS SUCH...THE THREAT FOR A FEW
TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUES WITH THESE CELLS IN
WW 198...AND WILL POTENTIALLY BE MAINTAINED BY INCREASING 850-MB
FLOW THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

..PICCA.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   27799922 28239946 28729947 29579904 30679849 30819805
            30489719 30219678 29819660 28959697 27929759 27759813
            27799922





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240139
TXZ000-240345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0730
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0839 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 198...

VALID 240139Z - 240345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 198 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS
CONTINUES ACROSS WW 198.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST RECENT WSR-88D/MRMS DATA ILLUSTRATE A BROKEN
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM LA SALLE CO NEWD
TO TRAVIS CO. SEVERAL EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS BAND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. INDEED...KEWX VWP DATA PRESENT FAVORABLE SHEAR NEAR THE
SFC...WITH 0-1 KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 200-250 M2/S2. IN COMBINATION
WITH VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /MEAN MIXING RATIO VALUES OF 15-17
G PER KG BASED UPON OBSERVED AND FCST SOUNDINGS/ AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...SUCH A WIND PROFILE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR TRANSIENT ROTATING
STRUCTURES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. AS SUCH...THE THREAT FOR A FEW
TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CONTINUES WITH THESE CELLS IN
WW 198...AND WILL POTENTIALLY BE MAINTAINED BY INCREASING 850-MB
FLOW THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

..PICCA.. 05/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   27799922 28239946 28729947 29579904 30679849 30819805
            30489719 30219678 29819660 28959697 27929759 27759813
            27799922






000
ACUS01 KWNS 240052
SWODY1
SPC AC 240050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND
NORTHERN IDAHO...

...SUMMARY...
THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CONTINUES THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
THE PRIMARY REMAINING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING
AND...PERHAPS...INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS APPEARS INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO A COUPLE OF CORRIDORS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS.

JUST AHEAD OF A SLOW EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING CONGLOMERATE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...A RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
/EXTENDING ROUGHLY IN EAST-WEST FASHION ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/ APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING AT LEAST BRIEF
TORNADOES.  ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE MOIST...TROPICAL-LIKE...IN THE PRESENCE
OF WIND PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS /REFERENCE THE 00Z
SOUNDING FROM OUN/.  AS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY COOLS
THROUGH 02-04Z...ANY LINGERING TORNADIC POTENTIAL PROBABLY WILL
DIMINISH.  HOWEVER...HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING COUPLED WITH THE
DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF 30-40 KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS
REMAINING CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...NOW STILL EVOLVING ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...COULD INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...MODERATELY LARGE
CAPE AND MODESTLY SHEARED 25 TO 30 KT SOUTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW.  AS THIS OCCURS...A STRONG DOWNBURST OR TWO...AND THE
SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF A NORTHEASTWARD SURGING COLD POOL
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SUBSTANTIVE CLUSTER
OF STORMS...NOW PROPAGATING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
IDAHO...INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD
ACCOMPANY ACTIVITY INTO PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA PLATEAU.

..KERR.. 05/24/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 240052
SWODY1
SPC AC 240050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND
NORTHERN IDAHO...

...SUMMARY...
THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CONTINUES THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
THE PRIMARY REMAINING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING
AND...PERHAPS...INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS APPEARS INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO A COUPLE OF CORRIDORS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS.

JUST AHEAD OF A SLOW EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING CONGLOMERATE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...A RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
/EXTENDING ROUGHLY IN EAST-WEST FASHION ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/ APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING AT LEAST BRIEF
TORNADOES.  ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE MOIST...TROPICAL-LIKE...IN THE PRESENCE
OF WIND PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS /REFERENCE THE 00Z
SOUNDING FROM OUN/.  AS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY COOLS
THROUGH 02-04Z...ANY LINGERING TORNADIC POTENTIAL PROBABLY WILL
DIMINISH.  HOWEVER...HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING COUPLED WITH THE
DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF 30-40 KT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS
REMAINING CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...NOW STILL EVOLVING ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...COULD INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...MODERATELY LARGE
CAPE AND MODESTLY SHEARED 25 TO 30 KT SOUTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW.  AS THIS OCCURS...A STRONG DOWNBURST OR TWO...AND THE
SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF A NORTHEASTWARD SURGING COLD POOL
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SUBSTANTIVE CLUSTER
OF STORMS...NOW PROPAGATING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
IDAHO...INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD
ACCOMPANY ACTIVITY INTO PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA PLATEAU.

..KERR.. 05/24/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 232338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232337
OKZ000-TXZ000-240100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0729
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OK AND NORTH TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 197...

VALID 232337Z - 240100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 197 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL ASIDE...SHORT-TERM TORNADO THREAT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MAXIMIZED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL OK THROUGH
EARLY/MID-EVENING. TORNADO WATCH 197 CONTINUES UNTIL 07Z...WHILE
ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL OK MAY REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL
TORNADO WATCH.

DISCUSSION...A COMPOSITE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SQUALL LINE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OK AS OF 2330Z/630 PM CDT...WHILE OTHER
SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DEVELOP/INTENSIFY TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OK.
THESE SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY QUICK TO ACQUIRE LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION INCLUDING A HISTORY OF SEVERAL TORNADOES IN AREAS TO THE
IMMEDIATE WEST/SOUTH OF THE OKC METRO AS OF 630 PM CDT. SCENARIO
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS
WITH A TORNADO WITHIN A TROPICAL-LIKE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY
LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO
SOUTHEASTERLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE SQUALL LINE...WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL SRH WITH LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA
FROM KTLX INDICATING AROUND 350 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH.

..GUYER.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34179951 35129831 35819736 36459609 36489521 34649489
            33169678 33379891 34179951





000
ACUS11 KWNS 232338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232337
OKZ000-TXZ000-240100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0729
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OK AND NORTH TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 197...

VALID 232337Z - 240100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 197 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL ASIDE...SHORT-TERM TORNADO THREAT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MAXIMIZED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL OK THROUGH
EARLY/MID-EVENING. TORNADO WATCH 197 CONTINUES UNTIL 07Z...WHILE
ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL OK MAY REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL
TORNADO WATCH.

DISCUSSION...A COMPOSITE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SQUALL LINE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OK AS OF 2330Z/630 PM CDT...WHILE OTHER
SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DEVELOP/INTENSIFY TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OK.
THESE SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY QUICK TO ACQUIRE LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION INCLUDING A HISTORY OF SEVERAL TORNADOES IN AREAS TO THE
IMMEDIATE WEST/SOUTH OF THE OKC METRO AS OF 630 PM CDT. SCENARIO
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS
WITH A TORNADO WITHIN A TROPICAL-LIKE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY
LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO
SOUTHEASTERLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE SQUALL LINE...WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL SRH WITH LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA
FROM KTLX INDICATING AROUND 350 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH.

..GUYER.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34179951 35129831 35819736 36459609 36489521 34649489
            33169678 33379891 34179951






000
ACUS11 KWNS 232338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232337
OKZ000-TXZ000-240100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0729
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OK AND NORTH TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 197...

VALID 232337Z - 240100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 197 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL ASIDE...SHORT-TERM TORNADO THREAT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MAXIMIZED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL OK THROUGH
EARLY/MID-EVENING. TORNADO WATCH 197 CONTINUES UNTIL 07Z...WHILE
ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL OK MAY REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL
TORNADO WATCH.

DISCUSSION...A COMPOSITE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SQUALL LINE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OK AS OF 2330Z/630 PM CDT...WHILE OTHER
SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DEVELOP/INTENSIFY TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OK.
THESE SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS HAVE BEEN VERY QUICK TO ACQUIRE LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION INCLUDING A HISTORY OF SEVERAL TORNADOES IN AREAS TO THE
IMMEDIATE WEST/SOUTH OF THE OKC METRO AS OF 630 PM CDT. SCENARIO
WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS
WITH A TORNADO WITHIN A TROPICAL-LIKE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY
LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO
SOUTHEASTERLY EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE SQUALL LINE...WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL SRH WITH LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA
FROM KTLX INDICATING AROUND 350 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH.

..GUYER.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34179951 35129831 35819736 36459609 36489521 34649489
            33169678 33379891 34179951





000
ACUS11 KWNS 232307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232306
TXZ000-NMZ000-240100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL/SRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 196...

VALID 232306Z - 240100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 196 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS WW 196. A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE
REQUIRED AFTER 02Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT
WW. FURTHERMORE...A THREAT EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR A
FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL REPORTS TO THE EAST OF WW 196. NEW WW
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS MULTIPLE BANDS OF
STRONG-TO-SEVERE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND
PERMIAN BASIN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE INFLUENCE FROM AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT INSOLATION
ACROSS THE REGION...AND SOME MOIST S/SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AIDING STORM MAINTENANCE AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT TOWARDS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH BY EARLY TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER
CNTRL TX...AND INSOLATION WANES...RE-FOCUSING THE THREAT TO THE
EAST. EFFECTIVE SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...WHILE POCKETS OF
WELL-MIXED LOW LEVELS WILL SUSTAIN A WIND THREAT THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...TEMPORAL EXTENSION ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF
WW 196 MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...SOME THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR STRONG
WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REPORTS EXISTS TO THE EAST OF THE
CURRENT WATCH. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WITH HEIGHT /EVIDENCED BY NEARLY 200 M2S2 OF 0-1 SRH FROM THE
KEWX VWP/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT AND AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT. AS SUCH...A NEW WATCH
ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   28110005 29160071 29540111 29770151 29860238 29900355
            30230377 31640357 32350315 32860270 32940012 32489907
            31159822 29369744 28679760 28269861 28110005





000
ACUS11 KWNS 232307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232306
TXZ000-NMZ000-240100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL/SRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 196...

VALID 232306Z - 240100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 196 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS WW 196. A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE
REQUIRED AFTER 02Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT
WW. FURTHERMORE...A THREAT EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR A
FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL REPORTS TO THE EAST OF WW 196. NEW WW
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS MULTIPLE BANDS OF
STRONG-TO-SEVERE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND
PERMIAN BASIN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE INFLUENCE FROM AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT INSOLATION
ACROSS THE REGION...AND SOME MOIST S/SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AIDING STORM MAINTENANCE AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT TOWARDS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH BY EARLY TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER
CNTRL TX...AND INSOLATION WANES...RE-FOCUSING THE THREAT TO THE
EAST. EFFECTIVE SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...WHILE POCKETS OF
WELL-MIXED LOW LEVELS WILL SUSTAIN A WIND THREAT THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...TEMPORAL EXTENSION ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF
WW 196 MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...SOME THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR STRONG
WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REPORTS EXISTS TO THE EAST OF THE
CURRENT WATCH. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WITH HEIGHT /EVIDENCED BY NEARLY 200 M2S2 OF 0-1 SRH FROM THE
KEWX VWP/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT AND AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT. AS SUCH...A NEW WATCH
ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   28110005 29160071 29540111 29770151 29860238 29900355
            30230377 31640357 32350315 32860270 32940012 32489907
            31159822 29369744 28679760 28269861 28110005





000
ACUS11 KWNS 232307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232306
TXZ000-NMZ000-240100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL/SRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 196...

VALID 232306Z - 240100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 196 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS WW 196. A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE
REQUIRED AFTER 02Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT
WW. FURTHERMORE...A THREAT EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR A
FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL REPORTS TO THE EAST OF WW 196. NEW WW
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS MULTIPLE BANDS OF
STRONG-TO-SEVERE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND
PERMIAN BASIN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE INFLUENCE FROM AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT INSOLATION
ACROSS THE REGION...AND SOME MOIST S/SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AIDING STORM MAINTENANCE AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT TOWARDS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH BY EARLY TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER
CNTRL TX...AND INSOLATION WANES...RE-FOCUSING THE THREAT TO THE
EAST. EFFECTIVE SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...WHILE POCKETS OF
WELL-MIXED LOW LEVELS WILL SUSTAIN A WIND THREAT THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...TEMPORAL EXTENSION ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF
WW 196 MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...SOME THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR STRONG
WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REPORTS EXISTS TO THE EAST OF THE
CURRENT WATCH. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WITH HEIGHT /EVIDENCED BY NEARLY 200 M2S2 OF 0-1 SRH FROM THE
KEWX VWP/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT AND AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT. AS SUCH...A NEW WATCH
ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   28110005 29160071 29540111 29770151 29860238 29900355
            30230377 31640357 32350315 32860270 32940012 32489907
            31159822 29369744 28679760 28269861 28110005






000
ACUS11 KWNS 232307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232306
TXZ000-NMZ000-240100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL/SRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 196...

VALID 232306Z - 240100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 196 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS WW 196. A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE
REQUIRED AFTER 02Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT
WW. FURTHERMORE...A THREAT EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR A
FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL REPORTS TO THE EAST OF WW 196. NEW WW
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS MULTIPLE BANDS OF
STRONG-TO-SEVERE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND
PERMIAN BASIN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE INFLUENCE FROM AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT INSOLATION
ACROSS THE REGION...AND SOME MOIST S/SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AIDING STORM MAINTENANCE AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT TOWARDS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH BY EARLY TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER
CNTRL TX...AND INSOLATION WANES...RE-FOCUSING THE THREAT TO THE
EAST. EFFECTIVE SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...WHILE POCKETS OF
WELL-MIXED LOW LEVELS WILL SUSTAIN A WIND THREAT THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...TEMPORAL EXTENSION ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF
WW 196 MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...SOME THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR STRONG
WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REPORTS EXISTS TO THE EAST OF THE
CURRENT WATCH. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WITH HEIGHT /EVIDENCED BY NEARLY 200 M2S2 OF 0-1 SRH FROM THE
KEWX VWP/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT AND AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT. AS SUCH...A NEW WATCH
ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   28110005 29160071 29540111 29770151 29860238 29900355
            30230377 31640357 32350315 32860270 32940012 32489907
            31159822 29369744 28679760 28269861 28110005






000
ACUS11 KWNS 232307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232306
TXZ000-NMZ000-240100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL/SRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 196...

VALID 232306Z - 240100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 196 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS WW 196. A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE
REQUIRED AFTER 02Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT
WW. FURTHERMORE...A THREAT EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR A
FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL REPORTS TO THE EAST OF WW 196. NEW WW
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS MULTIPLE BANDS OF
STRONG-TO-SEVERE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND
PERMIAN BASIN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE INFLUENCE FROM AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT INSOLATION
ACROSS THE REGION...AND SOME MOIST S/SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AIDING STORM MAINTENANCE AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT TOWARDS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH BY EARLY TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER
CNTRL TX...AND INSOLATION WANES...RE-FOCUSING THE THREAT TO THE
EAST. EFFECTIVE SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...WHILE POCKETS OF
WELL-MIXED LOW LEVELS WILL SUSTAIN A WIND THREAT THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...TEMPORAL EXTENSION ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF
WW 196 MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...SOME THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR STRONG
WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REPORTS EXISTS TO THE EAST OF THE
CURRENT WATCH. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WITH HEIGHT /EVIDENCED BY NEARLY 200 M2S2 OF 0-1 SRH FROM THE
KEWX VWP/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT AND AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT. AS SUCH...A NEW WATCH
ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   28110005 29160071 29540111 29770151 29860238 29900355
            30230377 31640357 32350315 32860270 32940012 32489907
            31159822 29369744 28679760 28269861 28110005





000
ACUS11 KWNS 232307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232306
TXZ000-NMZ000-240100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0728
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL/SRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 196...

VALID 232306Z - 240100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 196 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS WW 196. A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE
REQUIRED AFTER 02Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT
WW. FURTHERMORE...A THREAT EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR A
FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL REPORTS TO THE EAST OF WW 196. NEW WW
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS MULTIPLE BANDS OF
STRONG-TO-SEVERE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND
PERMIAN BASIN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE INFLUENCE FROM AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST...POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT INSOLATION
ACROSS THE REGION...AND SOME MOIST S/SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AIDING STORM MAINTENANCE AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT TOWARDS ERN PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH BY EARLY TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER
CNTRL TX...AND INSOLATION WANES...RE-FOCUSING THE THREAT TO THE
EAST. EFFECTIVE SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...WHILE POCKETS OF
WELL-MIXED LOW LEVELS WILL SUSTAIN A WIND THREAT THROUGH THE MID
EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE...TEMPORAL EXTENSION ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF
WW 196 MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY...SOME THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR STRONG
WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REPORTS EXISTS TO THE EAST OF THE
CURRENT WATCH. AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WITH HEIGHT /EVIDENCED BY NEARLY 200 M2S2 OF 0-1 SRH FROM THE
KEWX VWP/ SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT AND AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT. AS SUCH...A NEW WATCH
ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   28110005 29160071 29540111 29770151 29860238 29900355
            30230377 31640357 32350315 32860270 32940012 32489907
            31159822 29369744 28679760 28269861 28110005





000
ACUS11 KWNS 232211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232211
COZ000-240015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0727
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 195...

VALID 232211Z - 240015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 195 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS/LARGE HAIL REPORTS CONTINUES ACROSS WW 195. THE THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE ACROSS FAR
ERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FROM ASCENT FROM
A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH /EVIDENCED BY SFC PRES FALLS ACROSS THE
REGION/ AND SELY UPSLOPE FLOW. THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS /WITH A SERIES OF CLUSTERS...LINE SEGMENTS...AND
TRANSIENT DISCRETE CELLS/ WHICH IS LIKELY A RESULT OF
UNI-DIRECTIONAL/SSWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND SOME VEER-BACK
NATURE TO THESE PROFILES. NONETHELESS...ADEQUATE SELY SFC FLOW HAS
SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF EFFECTIVE SRH ON THE ORDER OF 100-200
M2/S2 /WITNESSED IN KPUX VWP DATA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS/. IN
COMBINATION WITH FURTHER INSOLATION PROMOTING MLCAPE UP TO APPROX
1000 J/KG...THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO OFFER A
THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL
REPORTS. THIS THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING...AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS...IN RESPONSE TO
FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGER FLOW ALOFT DEPARTING TO THE NNE.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED MOIST SELY FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

..PICCA.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   40380463 40830455 40910363 40930273 40910244 38900225
            37200213 37070221 37060246 37060375 37140403 38800448
            40380463





000
ACUS11 KWNS 232211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232211
COZ000-240015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0727
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 195...

VALID 232211Z - 240015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 195 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS/LARGE HAIL REPORTS CONTINUES ACROSS WW 195. THE THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE ACROSS FAR
ERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FROM ASCENT FROM
A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH /EVIDENCED BY SFC PRES FALLS ACROSS THE
REGION/ AND SELY UPSLOPE FLOW. THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS /WITH A SERIES OF CLUSTERS...LINE SEGMENTS...AND
TRANSIENT DISCRETE CELLS/ WHICH IS LIKELY A RESULT OF
UNI-DIRECTIONAL/SSWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND SOME VEER-BACK
NATURE TO THESE PROFILES. NONETHELESS...ADEQUATE SELY SFC FLOW HAS
SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF EFFECTIVE SRH ON THE ORDER OF 100-200
M2/S2 /WITNESSED IN KPUX VWP DATA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS/. IN
COMBINATION WITH FURTHER INSOLATION PROMOTING MLCAPE UP TO APPROX
1000 J/KG...THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO OFFER A
THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL
REPORTS. THIS THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING...AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS...IN RESPONSE TO
FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGER FLOW ALOFT DEPARTING TO THE NNE.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED MOIST SELY FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

..PICCA.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   40380463 40830455 40910363 40930273 40910244 38900225
            37200213 37070221 37060246 37060375 37140403 38800448
            40380463





000
ACUS11 KWNS 232211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232211
COZ000-240015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0727
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 195...

VALID 232211Z - 240015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 195 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS/LARGE HAIL REPORTS CONTINUES ACROSS WW 195. THE THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE ACROSS FAR
ERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FROM ASCENT FROM
A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH /EVIDENCED BY SFC PRES FALLS ACROSS THE
REGION/ AND SELY UPSLOPE FLOW. THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS /WITH A SERIES OF CLUSTERS...LINE SEGMENTS...AND
TRANSIENT DISCRETE CELLS/ WHICH IS LIKELY A RESULT OF
UNI-DIRECTIONAL/SSWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND SOME VEER-BACK
NATURE TO THESE PROFILES. NONETHELESS...ADEQUATE SELY SFC FLOW HAS
SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF EFFECTIVE SRH ON THE ORDER OF 100-200
M2/S2 /WITNESSED IN KPUX VWP DATA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS/. IN
COMBINATION WITH FURTHER INSOLATION PROMOTING MLCAPE UP TO APPROX
1000 J/KG...THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO OFFER A
THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL
REPORTS. THIS THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING...AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS...IN RESPONSE TO
FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGER FLOW ALOFT DEPARTING TO THE NNE.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED MOIST SELY FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

..PICCA.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   40380463 40830455 40910363 40930273 40910244 38900225
            37200213 37070221 37060246 37060375 37140403 38800448
            40380463





000
ACUS11 KWNS 232211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232211
COZ000-240015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0727
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 195...

VALID 232211Z - 240015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 195 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS/LARGE HAIL REPORTS CONTINUES ACROSS WW 195. THE THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE ACROSS FAR
ERN CO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FROM ASCENT FROM
A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH /EVIDENCED BY SFC PRES FALLS ACROSS THE
REGION/ AND SELY UPSLOPE FLOW. THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS /WITH A SERIES OF CLUSTERS...LINE SEGMENTS...AND
TRANSIENT DISCRETE CELLS/ WHICH IS LIKELY A RESULT OF
UNI-DIRECTIONAL/SSWLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES AND SOME VEER-BACK
NATURE TO THESE PROFILES. NONETHELESS...ADEQUATE SELY SFC FLOW HAS
SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF EFFECTIVE SRH ON THE ORDER OF 100-200
M2/S2 /WITNESSED IN KPUX VWP DATA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS/. IN
COMBINATION WITH FURTHER INSOLATION PROMOTING MLCAPE UP TO APPROX
1000 J/KG...THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO OFFER A
THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL
REPORTS. THIS THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING...AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS...IN RESPONSE TO
FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGER FLOW ALOFT DEPARTING TO THE NNE.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED MOIST SELY FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

..PICCA.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   40380463 40830455 40910363 40930273 40910244 38900225
            37200213 37070221 37060246 37060375 37140403 38800448
            40380463






000
ACUS11 KWNS 232204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232204
OKZ000-TXZ000-240030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST TX AND SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 232204Z - 240030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
MODESTLY INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY/MID-EVENING
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK. ONE OR
MORE WATCH ISSUANCES MAY BE NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX...WITH A WATCH REPLACEMENT
ALSO LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FOR TORNADO WATCH 194 WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AMID A
VERY MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL REGIME. CLOUD BREAKS AND MODERATE
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING REACHED THE LOWER
80S IN SOME LOCATIONS...APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONGER
PRECIPITATION LOADING-RELATED DOWNDRAFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX. A 55 KT MEASURED WIND GUST WAS REPORTED AT
TEMPLE TX IN THE PAST HOUR...WITH OTHER 40+ KT MEASURED WIND GUSTS
NOTED IN NEARBY OBSERVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...A SLOW-MOVING COMPOSITE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL
/SOUTHWEST OK AS OF 22Z. A TROPICAL-TYPE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY A VERY MOIST AIR MASS/LOW LCL/S EXISTS ON THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
FRINGES OF THIS SQUALL LINE. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INTO THIS
EVENING MAY INCREASE THE CONCERN FOR EMBEDDED/TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND SOME TORNADO RISK ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND PERHAPS EVEN PARTS OF NORTH TX.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35209810 35959764 36219691 35629608 32619620 30899796
            31339845 32069901 33159946 33540042 34480092 34799982
            35209810





000
ACUS11 KWNS 232204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232204
OKZ000-TXZ000-240030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST TX AND SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 232204Z - 240030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
MODESTLY INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY/MID-EVENING
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK. ONE OR
MORE WATCH ISSUANCES MAY BE NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX...WITH A WATCH REPLACEMENT
ALSO LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FOR TORNADO WATCH 194 WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AMID A
VERY MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL REGIME. CLOUD BREAKS AND MODERATE
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING REACHED THE LOWER
80S IN SOME LOCATIONS...APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONGER
PRECIPITATION LOADING-RELATED DOWNDRAFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX. A 55 KT MEASURED WIND GUST WAS REPORTED AT
TEMPLE TX IN THE PAST HOUR...WITH OTHER 40+ KT MEASURED WIND GUSTS
NOTED IN NEARBY OBSERVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...A SLOW-MOVING COMPOSITE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL
/SOUTHWEST OK AS OF 22Z. A TROPICAL-TYPE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY A VERY MOIST AIR MASS/LOW LCL/S EXISTS ON THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
FRINGES OF THIS SQUALL LINE. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INTO THIS
EVENING MAY INCREASE THE CONCERN FOR EMBEDDED/TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND SOME TORNADO RISK ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND PERHAPS EVEN PARTS OF NORTH TX.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35209810 35959764 36219691 35629608 32619620 30899796
            31339845 32069901 33159946 33540042 34480092 34799982
            35209810





000
ACUS11 KWNS 232204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232204
OKZ000-TXZ000-240030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST TX AND SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 232204Z - 240030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
MODESTLY INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY/MID-EVENING
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK. ONE OR
MORE WATCH ISSUANCES MAY BE NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX...WITH A WATCH REPLACEMENT
ALSO LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FOR TORNADO WATCH 194 WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AMID A
VERY MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL REGIME. CLOUD BREAKS AND MODERATE
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING REACHED THE LOWER
80S IN SOME LOCATIONS...APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONGER
PRECIPITATION LOADING-RELATED DOWNDRAFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX. A 55 KT MEASURED WIND GUST WAS REPORTED AT
TEMPLE TX IN THE PAST HOUR...WITH OTHER 40+ KT MEASURED WIND GUSTS
NOTED IN NEARBY OBSERVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...A SLOW-MOVING COMPOSITE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL
/SOUTHWEST OK AS OF 22Z. A TROPICAL-TYPE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY A VERY MOIST AIR MASS/LOW LCL/S EXISTS ON THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
FRINGES OF THIS SQUALL LINE. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INTO THIS
EVENING MAY INCREASE THE CONCERN FOR EMBEDDED/TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND SOME TORNADO RISK ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND PERHAPS EVEN PARTS OF NORTH TX.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35209810 35959764 36219691 35629608 32619620 30899796
            31339845 32069901 33159946 33540042 34480092 34799982
            35209810






000
ACUS11 KWNS 232204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232204
OKZ000-TXZ000-240030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST TX AND SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 232204Z - 240030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
MODESTLY INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY/MID-EVENING
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK. ONE OR
MORE WATCH ISSUANCES MAY BE NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX...WITH A WATCH REPLACEMENT
ALSO LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FOR TORNADO WATCH 194 WHICH IS SCHEDULED TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AMID A
VERY MOIST/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL REGIME. CLOUD BREAKS AND MODERATE
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING REACHED THE LOWER
80S IN SOME LOCATIONS...APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONGER
PRECIPITATION LOADING-RELATED DOWNDRAFTS ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX. A 55 KT MEASURED WIND GUST WAS REPORTED AT
TEMPLE TX IN THE PAST HOUR...WITH OTHER 40+ KT MEASURED WIND GUSTS
NOTED IN NEARBY OBSERVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...A SLOW-MOVING COMPOSITE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL
/SOUTHWEST OK AS OF 22Z. A TROPICAL-TYPE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY A VERY MOIST AIR MASS/LOW LCL/S EXISTS ON THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
FRINGES OF THIS SQUALL LINE. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INTO THIS
EVENING MAY INCREASE THE CONCERN FOR EMBEDDED/TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND SOME TORNADO RISK ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK AND PERHAPS EVEN PARTS OF NORTH TX.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35209810 35959764 36219691 35629608 32619620 30899796
            31339845 32069901 33159946 33540042 34480092 34799982
            35209810





000
ACUS11 KWNS 232044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232044
TXZ000-OKZ000-232245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0725
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF TX PANHANDLE AND S PLAINS...NWRN TX AND
SWRN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 194...

VALID 232044Z - 232245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 194 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH 00Z.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE THUS FAR BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WW
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
COMPOSITE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE EWD INTO SWRN
OK.  SCTD TSTMS...OCNLY SVR...HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED N OF THE BOUNDARY
NEAR AND W OF KAMA. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MODERATE TO
STRONG BUOYANCY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AVERAGING 35 TO 45 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 00Z WITH LITTLE REMAINING CINH. THE GREATEST TORNADO
RISK IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND MAINLY ACROSS
ERN PORTIONS OF THE WW...WHERE 0-3 KM SRH REMAINS IN THE 150-200
M2/S2 RANGE.

..BUNTING.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35490301 35540230 35420201 35190174 34850125 34680081
            34680013 34859992 35039957 35079903 34989881 34619835
            34179814 33819813 33539845 33419935 33359997 33220064
            33170155 33120227 33070291 33290302 35490301





000
ACUS11 KWNS 232044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232044
TXZ000-OKZ000-232245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0725
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF TX PANHANDLE AND S PLAINS...NWRN TX AND
SWRN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 194...

VALID 232044Z - 232245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 194 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH 00Z.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE THUS FAR BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WW
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
COMPOSITE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE EWD INTO SWRN
OK.  SCTD TSTMS...OCNLY SVR...HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED N OF THE BOUNDARY
NEAR AND W OF KAMA. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MODERATE TO
STRONG BUOYANCY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AVERAGING 35 TO 45 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 00Z WITH LITTLE REMAINING CINH. THE GREATEST TORNADO
RISK IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND MAINLY ACROSS
ERN PORTIONS OF THE WW...WHERE 0-3 KM SRH REMAINS IN THE 150-200
M2/S2 RANGE.

..BUNTING.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35490301 35540230 35420201 35190174 34850125 34680081
            34680013 34859992 35039957 35079903 34989881 34619835
            34179814 33819813 33539845 33419935 33359997 33220064
            33170155 33120227 33070291 33290302 35490301






000
ACUS11 KWNS 232044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232044
TXZ000-OKZ000-232245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0725
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF TX PANHANDLE AND S PLAINS...NWRN TX AND
SWRN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 194...

VALID 232044Z - 232245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 194 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH 00Z.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE THUS FAR BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WW
AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
COMPOSITE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE EWD INTO SWRN
OK.  SCTD TSTMS...OCNLY SVR...HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED N OF THE BOUNDARY
NEAR AND W OF KAMA. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MODERATE TO
STRONG BUOYANCY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AVERAGING 35 TO 45 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 00Z WITH LITTLE REMAINING CINH. THE GREATEST TORNADO
RISK IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND MAINLY ACROSS
ERN PORTIONS OF THE WW...WHERE 0-3 KM SRH REMAINS IN THE 150-200
M2/S2 RANGE.

..BUNTING.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35490301 35540230 35420201 35190174 34850125 34680081
            34680013 34859992 35039957 35079903 34989881 34619835
            34179814 33819813 33539845 33419935 33359997 33220064
            33170155 33120227 33070291 33290302 35490301





000
ACUS01 KWNS 231946
SWODY1
SPC AC 231945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX INTO CNTRL
OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CO...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...AS WELL AS
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT WESTERN KANSAS.

NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

...EASTERN COLORADO...
CONTINUE TORNADO WATCH 195. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 723.

...TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK...
CONTINUE TORNADO WATCH 194. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 722.

..JEWELL.. 05/23/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE/COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. -- COMPRISED OF
NUMEROUS SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION -- WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE
U.S. THIS PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS MUCH OF THE E...IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH SHIFTING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ADJACENT NWRN ATLANTIC.

AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND NWWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S./CANADA BORDER INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE.  MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR W...WHILE MORE FOCUSED TROUGHING OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MARK A ROUGH WRN
BOUNDARY TO THE MAIN ZONE OF CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK THIS PERIOD.

...WRN AND CENTRAL OK SSWWD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF TX...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IS OBSERVED THIS AM PER VIS IMAGERY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS...THOUGH SOME THINNING/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE INDICATED...PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF TX S OF AN
OUTFLOW-REINFORCED WARM FRONT LYING WNW-ESE INVOF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY.  ACTIVE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE
WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY...WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT FUELING THE CONVECTION AND RESULTING IN A RISK FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THIS MCS MAY
POSE A RISK FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS -- AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OVER
SRN PORTIONS OF OK.

MEANWHILE NEAR AND S OF THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN N TX AND THE SOUTH
PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE...FILTERED HEATING OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WILL LIKELY YIELD
1000 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE -- WITH POCKETS OF GREATER
INSTABILITY WHERE HEATING CAN BE MAXIMIZED.

STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEAR AND N OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH ANY WARM-SECTOR DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS/N OF
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN THE MEAN FLOW FIELD.  THUS -- TORNADO
RISK WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF WITH ANY STRONGER CELL DEVELOPING NEAR THE
BOUNDARY.  MEANWHILE...DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED NEAR THE N-S
TROUGH INVOF THE NM/TX BORDER.  GIVEN FAVORABLE BACKGROUND SHEAR
FEATURING FLOW INCREASING/VEERING WITH HEIGHT...AND THE
MOIST/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IS
EVIDENT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EXTEND SWD ACROSS THE S
PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN/TRANSPECOS
REGION TO THE RIO GRANDE.  GIVEN A RELATIVELY UNIFORM KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN TX...SIMILAR SEVERE
RISK WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION.  THE RISK
HOWEVER WILL LIKELY BE MANIFESTED IN MULTIPLE BANDS OF
CONVECTION...AS INITIAL STORMS SHIFT NEWD INTO CENTRAL/N TX WITH
TIME WHILE INCREASING ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM
SUPPORTS NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF PRIOR STORMS.  SEVERE RISK
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN
CONCERNS WILL LIKELY BECOME PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT GIVEN ANTECEDENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS.

...ERN CO AND ADJACENT WRN KS...
AS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN HIGH PLAINS/WRN OK MCS
DEPART ENEWD/AWAY FROM ERN CO...SOME DIURNAL HEATING OF A MODESTLY
MOIST /UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S TD/ BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR LOCALLY --
AWAY FROM AREAS OF PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS.  DESTABILIZATION WILL
BE AIDED BY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT /H5 TEMPERATURES -14 TO -16 PER
MORNING DNR RAOB AND 12Z PROGS/...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW 500 TO 1000
J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE OVER E CENTRAL AND NERN
CO.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON -- AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
PARTICULARLY N OF THE PALMER RIDGE.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ADVANCES SLOWLY EWD...STRONGEST MID-LEVEL SSWLYS
WILL BE GRADUALLY SHUNTED EWD INTO WRN KS WITH TIME.  HOWEVER...WITH
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW ACROSS E CENTRAL AND NERN CO THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ENHANCING SHEAR...EXPECT A FEW SUSTAINED/ROTATING
STORMS TO EVOLVE -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND RISK AND
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES.  STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SEVERE RISK SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE AFTER SUNSET.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 231946
SWODY1
SPC AC 231945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX INTO CNTRL
OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CO...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...AS WELL AS
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT WESTERN KANSAS.

NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

...EASTERN COLORADO...
CONTINUE TORNADO WATCH 195. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 723.

...TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK...
CONTINUE TORNADO WATCH 194. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 722.

..JEWELL.. 05/23/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE/COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. -- COMPRISED OF
NUMEROUS SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION -- WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE
U.S. THIS PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS MUCH OF THE E...IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH SHIFTING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ADJACENT NWRN ATLANTIC.

AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND NWWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S./CANADA BORDER INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE.  MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR W...WHILE MORE FOCUSED TROUGHING OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MARK A ROUGH WRN
BOUNDARY TO THE MAIN ZONE OF CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK THIS PERIOD.

...WRN AND CENTRAL OK SSWWD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF TX...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IS OBSERVED THIS AM PER VIS IMAGERY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS...THOUGH SOME THINNING/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE INDICATED...PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF TX S OF AN
OUTFLOW-REINFORCED WARM FRONT LYING WNW-ESE INVOF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY.  ACTIVE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE
WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY...WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT FUELING THE CONVECTION AND RESULTING IN A RISK FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THIS MCS MAY
POSE A RISK FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS -- AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OVER
SRN PORTIONS OF OK.

MEANWHILE NEAR AND S OF THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN N TX AND THE SOUTH
PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE...FILTERED HEATING OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WILL LIKELY YIELD
1000 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE -- WITH POCKETS OF GREATER
INSTABILITY WHERE HEATING CAN BE MAXIMIZED.

STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEAR AND N OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH ANY WARM-SECTOR DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS/N OF
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN THE MEAN FLOW FIELD.  THUS -- TORNADO
RISK WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF WITH ANY STRONGER CELL DEVELOPING NEAR THE
BOUNDARY.  MEANWHILE...DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED NEAR THE N-S
TROUGH INVOF THE NM/TX BORDER.  GIVEN FAVORABLE BACKGROUND SHEAR
FEATURING FLOW INCREASING/VEERING WITH HEIGHT...AND THE
MOIST/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IS
EVIDENT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EXTEND SWD ACROSS THE S
PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN/TRANSPECOS
REGION TO THE RIO GRANDE.  GIVEN A RELATIVELY UNIFORM KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN TX...SIMILAR SEVERE
RISK WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION.  THE RISK
HOWEVER WILL LIKELY BE MANIFESTED IN MULTIPLE BANDS OF
CONVECTION...AS INITIAL STORMS SHIFT NEWD INTO CENTRAL/N TX WITH
TIME WHILE INCREASING ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM
SUPPORTS NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF PRIOR STORMS.  SEVERE RISK
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN
CONCERNS WILL LIKELY BECOME PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT GIVEN ANTECEDENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS.

...ERN CO AND ADJACENT WRN KS...
AS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN HIGH PLAINS/WRN OK MCS
DEPART ENEWD/AWAY FROM ERN CO...SOME DIURNAL HEATING OF A MODESTLY
MOIST /UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S TD/ BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR LOCALLY --
AWAY FROM AREAS OF PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS.  DESTABILIZATION WILL
BE AIDED BY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT /H5 TEMPERATURES -14 TO -16 PER
MORNING DNR RAOB AND 12Z PROGS/...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW 500 TO 1000
J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE OVER E CENTRAL AND NERN
CO.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON -- AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
PARTICULARLY N OF THE PALMER RIDGE.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ADVANCES SLOWLY EWD...STRONGEST MID-LEVEL SSWLYS
WILL BE GRADUALLY SHUNTED EWD INTO WRN KS WITH TIME.  HOWEVER...WITH
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW ACROSS E CENTRAL AND NERN CO THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ENHANCING SHEAR...EXPECT A FEW SUSTAINED/ROTATING
STORMS TO EVOLVE -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND RISK AND
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES.  STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SEVERE RISK SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE AFTER SUNSET.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 231946
SWODY1
SPC AC 231945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX INTO CNTRL
OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CO...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...AS WELL AS
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT WESTERN KANSAS.

NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

...EASTERN COLORADO...
CONTINUE TORNADO WATCH 195. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 723.

...TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK...
CONTINUE TORNADO WATCH 194. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 722.

..JEWELL.. 05/23/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE/COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. -- COMPRISED OF
NUMEROUS SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION -- WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE
U.S. THIS PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS MUCH OF THE E...IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH SHIFTING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ADJACENT NWRN ATLANTIC.

AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND NWWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S./CANADA BORDER INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE.  MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR W...WHILE MORE FOCUSED TROUGHING OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MARK A ROUGH WRN
BOUNDARY TO THE MAIN ZONE OF CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK THIS PERIOD.

...WRN AND CENTRAL OK SSWWD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF TX...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IS OBSERVED THIS AM PER VIS IMAGERY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS...THOUGH SOME THINNING/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE INDICATED...PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF TX S OF AN
OUTFLOW-REINFORCED WARM FRONT LYING WNW-ESE INVOF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY.  ACTIVE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE
WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY...WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT FUELING THE CONVECTION AND RESULTING IN A RISK FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THIS MCS MAY
POSE A RISK FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS -- AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OVER
SRN PORTIONS OF OK.

MEANWHILE NEAR AND S OF THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN N TX AND THE SOUTH
PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE...FILTERED HEATING OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WILL LIKELY YIELD
1000 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE -- WITH POCKETS OF GREATER
INSTABILITY WHERE HEATING CAN BE MAXIMIZED.

STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEAR AND N OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH ANY WARM-SECTOR DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS/N OF
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN THE MEAN FLOW FIELD.  THUS -- TORNADO
RISK WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF WITH ANY STRONGER CELL DEVELOPING NEAR THE
BOUNDARY.  MEANWHILE...DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED NEAR THE N-S
TROUGH INVOF THE NM/TX BORDER.  GIVEN FAVORABLE BACKGROUND SHEAR
FEATURING FLOW INCREASING/VEERING WITH HEIGHT...AND THE
MOIST/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IS
EVIDENT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EXTEND SWD ACROSS THE S
PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN/TRANSPECOS
REGION TO THE RIO GRANDE.  GIVEN A RELATIVELY UNIFORM KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN TX...SIMILAR SEVERE
RISK WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION.  THE RISK
HOWEVER WILL LIKELY BE MANIFESTED IN MULTIPLE BANDS OF
CONVECTION...AS INITIAL STORMS SHIFT NEWD INTO CENTRAL/N TX WITH
TIME WHILE INCREASING ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM
SUPPORTS NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF PRIOR STORMS.  SEVERE RISK
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN
CONCERNS WILL LIKELY BECOME PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT GIVEN ANTECEDENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS.

...ERN CO AND ADJACENT WRN KS...
AS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN HIGH PLAINS/WRN OK MCS
DEPART ENEWD/AWAY FROM ERN CO...SOME DIURNAL HEATING OF A MODESTLY
MOIST /UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S TD/ BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR LOCALLY --
AWAY FROM AREAS OF PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS.  DESTABILIZATION WILL
BE AIDED BY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT /H5 TEMPERATURES -14 TO -16 PER
MORNING DNR RAOB AND 12Z PROGS/...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW 500 TO 1000
J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE OVER E CENTRAL AND NERN
CO.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON -- AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
PARTICULARLY N OF THE PALMER RIDGE.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ADVANCES SLOWLY EWD...STRONGEST MID-LEVEL SSWLYS
WILL BE GRADUALLY SHUNTED EWD INTO WRN KS WITH TIME.  HOWEVER...WITH
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW ACROSS E CENTRAL AND NERN CO THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ENHANCING SHEAR...EXPECT A FEW SUSTAINED/ROTATING
STORMS TO EVOLVE -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND RISK AND
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES.  STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SEVERE RISK SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE AFTER SUNSET.





000
ACUS11 KWNS 231902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231902
TXZ000-NMZ000-232030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0724
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR W TX...TRANS-PECOS/EDWARDS PLATEAU
REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231902Z - 232030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THE AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A WATCH PRIOR TO 21Z.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
CONCHO RIVER VALLEY EWD TOWARDS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE AFTN
AS REMAINING CINH DIMINISHES THROUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A TSTM
COMPLEX OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA REGION IN MEXICO WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU LATER THIS AFTN. STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST AIR MASS
/UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 DEW POINTS/ HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE/STRONG
BUOYANCY...AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...AND WITH LOW-LEVEL SRH EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
TIME...SOME TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST WITH SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AND
EVENTUALLY BOWING SEGMENTS.

FARTHER W...A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF A SFC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS JEFF DAVIS AND REEVES COUNTIES IN FAR W TX
THIS AFTN IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT MAY SUPPORT LARGE HAIL/SVR GUSTS
GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW
PRIOR TO 21Z...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WHERE TSTM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE GREATER.

..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29830238 29690269 29170301 29040325 29270370 29470407
            29730436 30090451 30550456 30980432 31200414 31610374
            32100315 32390210 32580162 32690072 32029993 31029963
            29759972 29339982 28629989 28450028 28970059 29370092
            29790149 29850183 29830238





000
ACUS11 KWNS 231902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231902
TXZ000-NMZ000-232030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0724
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR W TX...TRANS-PECOS/EDWARDS PLATEAU
REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231902Z - 232030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THE AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A WATCH PRIOR TO 21Z.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
CONCHO RIVER VALLEY EWD TOWARDS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE AFTN
AS REMAINING CINH DIMINISHES THROUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A TSTM
COMPLEX OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA REGION IN MEXICO WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU LATER THIS AFTN. STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST AIR MASS
/UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 DEW POINTS/ HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE/STRONG
BUOYANCY...AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...AND WITH LOW-LEVEL SRH EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
TIME...SOME TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST WITH SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AND
EVENTUALLY BOWING SEGMENTS.

FARTHER W...A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF A SFC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS JEFF DAVIS AND REEVES COUNTIES IN FAR W TX
THIS AFTN IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT MAY SUPPORT LARGE HAIL/SVR GUSTS
GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW
PRIOR TO 21Z...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WHERE TSTM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE GREATER.

..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29830238 29690269 29170301 29040325 29270370 29470407
            29730436 30090451 30550456 30980432 31200414 31610374
            32100315 32390210 32580162 32690072 32029993 31029963
            29759972 29339982 28629989 28450028 28970059 29370092
            29790149 29850183 29830238





000
ACUS11 KWNS 231902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231902
TXZ000-NMZ000-232030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0724
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR W TX...TRANS-PECOS/EDWARDS PLATEAU
REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231902Z - 232030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THE AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A WATCH PRIOR TO 21Z.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
CONCHO RIVER VALLEY EWD TOWARDS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE AFTN
AS REMAINING CINH DIMINISHES THROUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A TSTM
COMPLEX OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA REGION IN MEXICO WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU LATER THIS AFTN. STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST AIR MASS
/UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 DEW POINTS/ HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE/STRONG
BUOYANCY...AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...AND WITH LOW-LEVEL SRH EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
TIME...SOME TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST WITH SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AND
EVENTUALLY BOWING SEGMENTS.

FARTHER W...A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF A SFC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS JEFF DAVIS AND REEVES COUNTIES IN FAR W TX
THIS AFTN IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT MAY SUPPORT LARGE HAIL/SVR GUSTS
GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW
PRIOR TO 21Z...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WHERE TSTM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE GREATER.

..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29830238 29690269 29170301 29040325 29270370 29470407
            29730436 30090451 30550456 30980432 31200414 31610374
            32100315 32390210 32580162 32690072 32029993 31029963
            29759972 29339982 28629989 28450028 28970059 29370092
            29790149 29850183 29830238






000
ACUS11 KWNS 231902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231902
TXZ000-NMZ000-232030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0724
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR W TX...TRANS-PECOS/EDWARDS PLATEAU
REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231902Z - 232030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THE AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A WATCH PRIOR TO 21Z.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
CONCHO RIVER VALLEY EWD TOWARDS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE AFTN
AS REMAINING CINH DIMINISHES THROUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A TSTM
COMPLEX OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA REGION IN MEXICO WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU LATER THIS AFTN. STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST AIR MASS
/UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 DEW POINTS/ HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE/STRONG
BUOYANCY...AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTN TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...AND WITH LOW-LEVEL SRH EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
TIME...SOME TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST WITH SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AND
EVENTUALLY BOWING SEGMENTS.

FARTHER W...A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF A SFC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS JEFF DAVIS AND REEVES COUNTIES IN FAR W TX
THIS AFTN IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT MAY SUPPORT LARGE HAIL/SVR GUSTS
GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW
PRIOR TO 21Z...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WHERE TSTM COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE GREATER.

..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29830238 29690269 29170301 29040325 29270370 29470407
            29730436 30090451 30550456 30980432 31200414 31610374
            32100315 32390210 32580162 32690072 32029993 31029963
            29759972 29339982 28629989 28450028 28970059 29370092
            29790149 29850183 29830238





000
ACUS11 KWNS 231828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231827
COZ000-232030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0723
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231827Z - 232030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
CNTRL/ERN CO. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A STRONG UPPER TROUGH N
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AIDED IN EARLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION
ALONG AND JUST E OF THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING. THE AIR MASS
DOWNSHEAR FROM ONGOING CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S F. SFC OBS SHOW RELATIVELY MOIST
CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE HIGH PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 50
F...AND WILL AID IN MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG IN THE
NEXT FEW HRS. STRONG BUT GENERALLY DIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS /WITH A TENDENCY FOR STORM SPLITS/ GIVEN A
DISCRETE MODE. SFC WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED ALONG/N OF I-70
WHICH COULD SUPPORT THE RISK FOR ONE OR TWO BRIEF TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...THE PREDOMINANT RISKS APPEAR TO BE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

A SLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILE WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN NUMEROUS
STORM INTERACTIONS AND AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO A CLUSTER OR
QUASI-LINEAR MODE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD ENHANCE AN
ACCOMPANYING WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...THIS COULD ALSO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A LONGER DURATION HAIL/TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH A
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PRESENT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   40420260 38560225 37240261 37130436 37620465 38580471
            39420504 40430414 40420260





000
ACUS11 KWNS 231828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231827
COZ000-232030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0723
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231827Z - 232030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
CNTRL/ERN CO. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A STRONG UPPER TROUGH N
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AIDED IN EARLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION
ALONG AND JUST E OF THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING. THE AIR MASS
DOWNSHEAR FROM ONGOING CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S F. SFC OBS SHOW RELATIVELY MOIST
CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE HIGH PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 50
F...AND WILL AID IN MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG IN THE
NEXT FEW HRS. STRONG BUT GENERALLY DIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS /WITH A TENDENCY FOR STORM SPLITS/ GIVEN A
DISCRETE MODE. SFC WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED ALONG/N OF I-70
WHICH COULD SUPPORT THE RISK FOR ONE OR TWO BRIEF TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...THE PREDOMINANT RISKS APPEAR TO BE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

A SLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILE WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN NUMEROUS
STORM INTERACTIONS AND AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO A CLUSTER OR
QUASI-LINEAR MODE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD ENHANCE AN
ACCOMPANYING WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...THIS COULD ALSO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A LONGER DURATION HAIL/TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH A
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PRESENT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   40420260 38560225 37240261 37130436 37620465 38580471
            39420504 40430414 40420260





000
ACUS11 KWNS 231828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231827
COZ000-232030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0723
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231827Z - 232030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
CNTRL/ERN CO. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A STRONG UPPER TROUGH N
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AIDED IN EARLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION
ALONG AND JUST E OF THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING. THE AIR MASS
DOWNSHEAR FROM ONGOING CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S F. SFC OBS SHOW RELATIVELY MOIST
CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE HIGH PLAINS WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 50
F...AND WILL AID IN MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG IN THE
NEXT FEW HRS. STRONG BUT GENERALLY DIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS /WITH A TENDENCY FOR STORM SPLITS/ GIVEN A
DISCRETE MODE. SFC WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED ALONG/N OF I-70
WHICH COULD SUPPORT THE RISK FOR ONE OR TWO BRIEF TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...THE PREDOMINANT RISKS APPEAR TO BE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

A SLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILE WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN NUMEROUS
STORM INTERACTIONS AND AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO A CLUSTER OR
QUASI-LINEAR MODE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD ENHANCE AN
ACCOMPANYING WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...THIS COULD ALSO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR A LONGER DURATION HAIL/TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH A
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PRESENT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   40420260 38560225 37240261 37130436 37620465 38580471
            39420504 40430414 40420260






000
ACUS02 KWNS 231723
SWODY2
SPC AC 231722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN
TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS WHERE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO CAN BE EXPECTED.
 ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS FROM
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN AND CNTRL
STATES WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE SRN PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER ERN CO WITH
BROAD SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE MS VALLEY MAINTAINING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE SRN
PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED WIND FIELDS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR AREAS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS
ONGOING HEAVY RAINS.

TO THE N AND W OF THE MIDLEVEL JET AXIS...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS AS WELL...LEADING TO MODERATE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM ERN CO INTO
WRN NEB/KS.

ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR BENEATH
THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WRN STATES DURING THE
DAYTIME.

...MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN TX INTO FAR SRN OK...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN
THE PERIOD ACROSS MOST OF ERN TX AS WELL AS ERN OK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND JUST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO AR AND LA
WITH A CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THREAT. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS
AND MODERATE LEVELS OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO ALTHOUGH TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW OVERALL. STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.

LATER IN THE DAY...HEATING WILL OCCUR NEAR A DRYLINE WHICH SHOULD
EXTEND FROM WRN OK SWD ACROSS CNTRL TX. INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG
DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE TROUGH
AXIS...BUT COVERAGE OF DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT IS IN QUESTION AS THIS
AREA WILL BE IN A ZONE OF GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A
POTENTIAL DRYLINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ACROSS NRN TX OR
CLOSE TO THE RED RIVER. HERE...CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AS
WILL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES ARE
CONDITIONALLY POSSIBLE. OTHER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE
EXTENDING INTO SRN TX...BUT OVERALL PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ANTECEDENT CONVECTION EXPECTED AND
THE EFFECTS OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

...NERN CO...NWRN KS...WRN NEB...
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH THE NAM
SHOWING UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS NWRN KS WHILE THE GFS SHOWS IT
MIXED OUT IN THE SAME AREA. REGARDLESS OF EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
DRYLINE...AN AREA OF BACKED SFC WINDS N OF THE SFC LOW WILL MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FROM NERN CO INTO WRN NEB.
SHEAR PROFILES ARE GOING TO BE WEAK IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BUT A
FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES WILL PRECLUDE A SLIGHT RISK
AT THIS TIME.

..JEWELL.. 05/23/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 231723
SWODY2
SPC AC 231722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN
TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS WHERE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO CAN BE EXPECTED.
 ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS FROM
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN AND CNTRL
STATES WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE SRN PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER ERN CO WITH
BROAD SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE MS VALLEY MAINTAINING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE SRN
PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED WIND FIELDS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR AREAS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS
ONGOING HEAVY RAINS.

TO THE N AND W OF THE MIDLEVEL JET AXIS...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS AS WELL...LEADING TO MODERATE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM ERN CO INTO
WRN NEB/KS.

ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR BENEATH
THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WRN STATES DURING THE
DAYTIME.

...MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN TX INTO FAR SRN OK...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN
THE PERIOD ACROSS MOST OF ERN TX AS WELL AS ERN OK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND JUST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO AR AND LA
WITH A CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THREAT. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS
AND MODERATE LEVELS OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO ALTHOUGH TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW OVERALL. STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.

LATER IN THE DAY...HEATING WILL OCCUR NEAR A DRYLINE WHICH SHOULD
EXTEND FROM WRN OK SWD ACROSS CNTRL TX. INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG
DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE TROUGH
AXIS...BUT COVERAGE OF DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT IS IN QUESTION AS THIS
AREA WILL BE IN A ZONE OF GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A
POTENTIAL DRYLINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ACROSS NRN TX OR
CLOSE TO THE RED RIVER. HERE...CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AS
WILL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES ARE
CONDITIONALLY POSSIBLE. OTHER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE
EXTENDING INTO SRN TX...BUT OVERALL PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ANTECEDENT CONVECTION EXPECTED AND
THE EFFECTS OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

...NERN CO...NWRN KS...WRN NEB...
MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH THE NAM
SHOWING UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS NWRN KS WHILE THE GFS SHOWS IT
MIXED OUT IN THE SAME AREA. REGARDLESS OF EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
DRYLINE...AN AREA OF BACKED SFC WINDS N OF THE SFC LOW WILL MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FROM NERN CO INTO WRN NEB.
SHEAR PROFILES ARE GOING TO BE WEAK IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BUT A
FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES WILL PRECLUDE A SLIGHT RISK
AT THIS TIME.

..JEWELL.. 05/23/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 231717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231717
OKZ000-TXZ000-231945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0722
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN OK...TX SOUTH PLAINS...NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231717Z - 231945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH PRIOR TO 20Z.

DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 17Z REVEALS A WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. PERSISTENT TSTMS NORTH OF THE WRN EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT
HAVE RESULTED IN LITTLE NWD MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...1-MINUTE VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS GRADUALLY DEEPENING
CUMULUS AS HEATING OCCURS WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE
AFTN HOURS. TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG A SHARPENING
CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WITHIN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER WITH NUMEROUS
TSTMS EXPECTED OVER TIME...CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS MAY ULTIMATELY
EVOLVE. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LCLS AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 150 TO 300
M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...AND DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THE SHORT TERM
AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 20Z.

..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33759891 33199958 33170093 33370199 33690266 33970266
            34530271 35070258 35050193 34880153 34730090 34879996
            35379890 35429845 34929828 34149872 33759891





000
ACUS11 KWNS 231717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231717
OKZ000-TXZ000-231945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0722
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN OK...TX SOUTH PLAINS...NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231717Z - 231945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH PRIOR TO 20Z.

DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 17Z REVEALS A WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. PERSISTENT TSTMS NORTH OF THE WRN EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT
HAVE RESULTED IN LITTLE NWD MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...1-MINUTE VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS GRADUALLY DEEPENING
CUMULUS AS HEATING OCCURS WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE
AFTN HOURS. TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG A SHARPENING
CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WITHIN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER WITH NUMEROUS
TSTMS EXPECTED OVER TIME...CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS MAY ULTIMATELY
EVOLVE. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LCLS AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 150 TO 300
M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...AND DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THE SHORT TERM
AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 20Z.

..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33759891 33199958 33170093 33370199 33690266 33970266
            34530271 35070258 35050193 34880153 34730090 34879996
            35379890 35429845 34929828 34149872 33759891





000
ACUS11 KWNS 231717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231717
OKZ000-TXZ000-231945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0722
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN OK...TX SOUTH PLAINS...NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231717Z - 231945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH PRIOR TO 20Z.

DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 17Z REVEALS A WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. PERSISTENT TSTMS NORTH OF THE WRN EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT
HAVE RESULTED IN LITTLE NWD MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...1-MINUTE VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS GRADUALLY DEEPENING
CUMULUS AS HEATING OCCURS WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE
AFTN HOURS. TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG A SHARPENING
CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WITHIN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER WITH NUMEROUS
TSTMS EXPECTED OVER TIME...CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS MAY ULTIMATELY
EVOLVE. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LCLS AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 150 TO 300
M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...AND DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THE SHORT TERM
AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 20Z.

..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33759891 33199958 33170093 33370199 33690266 33970266
            34530271 35070258 35050193 34880153 34730090 34879996
            35379890 35429845 34929828 34149872 33759891





000
ACUS11 KWNS 231717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231717
OKZ000-TXZ000-231945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0722
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN OK...TX SOUTH PLAINS...NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231717Z - 231945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH PRIOR TO 20Z.

DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 17Z REVEALS A WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN
PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. PERSISTENT TSTMS NORTH OF THE WRN EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT
HAVE RESULTED IN LITTLE NWD MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...1-MINUTE VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS GRADUALLY DEEPENING
CUMULUS AS HEATING OCCURS WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE
AFTN HOURS. TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG A SHARPENING
CONFLUENCE AXIS EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WITHIN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...HOWEVER WITH NUMEROUS
TSTMS EXPECTED OVER TIME...CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS MAY ULTIMATELY
EVOLVE. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LCLS AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 150 TO 300
M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO RISK NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT...AND DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THE SHORT TERM
AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 20Z.

..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33759891 33199958 33170093 33370199 33690266 33970266
            34530271 35070258 35050193 34880153 34730090 34879996
            35379890 35429845 34929828 34149872 33759891






000
ACUS01 KWNS 231631
SWODY1
SPC AC 231630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN CO AND
ADJACENT WRN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL AND SWRN OK AND
SRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS OK AND MUCH OF TX...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...AS WELL AS
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT WESTERN KANSAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE/COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. -- COMPRISED OF
NUMEROUS SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION -- WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE
U.S. THIS PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS MUCH OF THE E...IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH SHIFTING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ADJACENT NWRN ATLANTIC.

AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND NWWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S./CANADA BORDER INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE.  MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR W...WHILE MORE FOCUSED TROUGHING OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MARK A ROUGH WRN
BOUNDARY TO THE MAIN ZONE OF CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK THIS PERIOD.

...WRN AND CENTRAL OK SSWWD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF TX...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IS OBSERVED THIS AM PER VIS IMAGERY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS...THOUGH SOME THINNING/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE INDICATED...PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF TX S OF AN
OUTFLOW-REINFORCED WARM FRONT LYING WNW-ESE INVOF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY.  ACTIVE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE
WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY...WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT FUELING THE CONVECTION AND RESULTING IN A RISK FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THIS MCS MAY
POSE A RISK FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS -- AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OVER
SRN PORTIONS OF OK.

MEANWHILE NEAR AND S OF THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN N TX AND THE SOUTH
PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE...FILTERED HEATING OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WILL LIKELY YIELD
1000 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE -- WITH POCKETS OF GREATER
INSTABILITY WHERE HEATING CAN BE MAXIMIZED.

STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEAR AND N OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH ANY WARM-SECTOR DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS/N OF
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN THE MEAN FLOW FIELD.  THUS -- TORNADO
RISK WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF WITH ANY STRONGER CELL DEVELOPING NEAR THE
BOUNDARY.  MEANWHILE...DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED NEAR THE N-S
TROUGH INVOF THE NM/TX BORDER.  GIVEN FAVORABLE BACKGROUND SHEAR
FEATURING FLOW INCREASING/VEERING WITH HEIGHT...AND THE
MOIST/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IS
EVIDENT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EXTEND SWD ACROSS THE S
PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN/TRANSPECOS
REGION TO THE RIO GRANDE.  GIVEN A RELATIVELY UNIFORM KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN TX...SIMILAR SEVERE
RISK WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION.  THE RISK
HOWEVER WILL LIKELY BE MANIFESTED IN MULTIPLE BANDS OF
CONVECTION...AS INITIAL STORMS SHIFT NEWD INTO CENTRAL/N TX WITH
TIME WHILE INCREASING ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM
SUPPORTS NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF PRIOR STORMS.  SEVERE RISK
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN
CONCERNS WILL LIKELY BECOME PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT GIVEN ANTECEDENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS.

...ERN CO AND ADJACENT WRN KS...
AS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN HIGH PLAINS/WRN OK MCS
DEPART ENEWD/AWAY FROM ERN CO...SOME DIURNAL HEATING OF A MODESTLY
MOIST /UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S TD/ BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR LOCALLY --
AWAY FROM AREAS OF PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS.  DESTABILIZATION WILL
BE AIDED BY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT /H5 TEMPERATURES -14 TO -16 PER
MORNING DNR RAOB AND 12Z PROGS/...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW 500 TO 1000
J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE OVER E CENTRAL AND NERN
CO.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON -- AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
PARTICULARLY N OF THE PALMER RIDGE.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ADVANCES SLOWLY EWD...STRONGEST MID-LEVEL SSWLYS
WILL BE GRADUALLY SHUNTED EWD INTO WRN KS WITH TIME.  HOWEVER...WITH
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW ACROSS E CENTRAL AND NERN CO THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ENHANCING SHEAR...EXPECT A FEW SUSTAINED/ROTATING
STORMS TO EVOLVE -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND RISK AND
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES.  STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SEVERE RISK SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE AFTER SUNSET.

..GOSS/ROGERS.. 05/23/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 231631
SWODY1
SPC AC 231630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN CO AND
ADJACENT WRN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL AND SWRN OK AND
SRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS OK AND MUCH OF TX...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...AS WELL AS
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT WESTERN KANSAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE/COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. -- COMPRISED OF
NUMEROUS SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION -- WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE
U.S. THIS PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS MUCH OF THE E...IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH SHIFTING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ADJACENT NWRN ATLANTIC.

AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND NWWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S./CANADA BORDER INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE.  MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR W...WHILE MORE FOCUSED TROUGHING OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MARK A ROUGH WRN
BOUNDARY TO THE MAIN ZONE OF CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK THIS PERIOD.

...WRN AND CENTRAL OK SSWWD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF TX...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IS OBSERVED THIS AM PER VIS IMAGERY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS...THOUGH SOME THINNING/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE INDICATED...PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF TX S OF AN
OUTFLOW-REINFORCED WARM FRONT LYING WNW-ESE INVOF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY.  ACTIVE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE
WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY...WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT FUELING THE CONVECTION AND RESULTING IN A RISK FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THIS MCS MAY
POSE A RISK FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS -- AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OVER
SRN PORTIONS OF OK.

MEANWHILE NEAR AND S OF THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN N TX AND THE SOUTH
PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE...FILTERED HEATING OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WILL LIKELY YIELD
1000 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE -- WITH POCKETS OF GREATER
INSTABILITY WHERE HEATING CAN BE MAXIMIZED.

STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEAR AND N OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH ANY WARM-SECTOR DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS/N OF
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN THE MEAN FLOW FIELD.  THUS -- TORNADO
RISK WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF WITH ANY STRONGER CELL DEVELOPING NEAR THE
BOUNDARY.  MEANWHILE...DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED NEAR THE N-S
TROUGH INVOF THE NM/TX BORDER.  GIVEN FAVORABLE BACKGROUND SHEAR
FEATURING FLOW INCREASING/VEERING WITH HEIGHT...AND THE
MOIST/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IS
EVIDENT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EXTEND SWD ACROSS THE S
PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN/TRANSPECOS
REGION TO THE RIO GRANDE.  GIVEN A RELATIVELY UNIFORM KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN TX...SIMILAR SEVERE
RISK WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION.  THE RISK
HOWEVER WILL LIKELY BE MANIFESTED IN MULTIPLE BANDS OF
CONVECTION...AS INITIAL STORMS SHIFT NEWD INTO CENTRAL/N TX WITH
TIME WHILE INCREASING ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM
SUPPORTS NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF PRIOR STORMS.  SEVERE RISK
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN
CONCERNS WILL LIKELY BECOME PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT GIVEN ANTECEDENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS.

...ERN CO AND ADJACENT WRN KS...
AS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN HIGH PLAINS/WRN OK MCS
DEPART ENEWD/AWAY FROM ERN CO...SOME DIURNAL HEATING OF A MODESTLY
MOIST /UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S TD/ BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR LOCALLY --
AWAY FROM AREAS OF PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS.  DESTABILIZATION WILL
BE AIDED BY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT /H5 TEMPERATURES -14 TO -16 PER
MORNING DNR RAOB AND 12Z PROGS/...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW 500 TO 1000
J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE OVER E CENTRAL AND NERN
CO.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON -- AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
PARTICULARLY N OF THE PALMER RIDGE.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ADVANCES SLOWLY EWD...STRONGEST MID-LEVEL SSWLYS
WILL BE GRADUALLY SHUNTED EWD INTO WRN KS WITH TIME.  HOWEVER...WITH
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW ACROSS E CENTRAL AND NERN CO THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ENHANCING SHEAR...EXPECT A FEW SUSTAINED/ROTATING
STORMS TO EVOLVE -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND RISK AND
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES.  STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SEVERE RISK SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE AFTER SUNSET.

..GOSS/ROGERS.. 05/23/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 231631
SWODY1
SPC AC 231630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN CO AND
ADJACENT WRN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL AND SWRN OK AND
SRN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS OK AND MUCH OF TX...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...AS WELL AS
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT WESTERN KANSAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE/COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. -- COMPRISED OF
NUMEROUS SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION -- WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE
U.S. THIS PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS MUCH OF THE E...IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH SHIFTING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ADJACENT NWRN ATLANTIC.

AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...AND NWWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S./CANADA BORDER INTO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE.  MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR W...WHILE MORE FOCUSED TROUGHING OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL MARK A ROUGH WRN
BOUNDARY TO THE MAIN ZONE OF CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK THIS PERIOD.

...WRN AND CENTRAL OK SSWWD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF TX...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IS OBSERVED THIS AM PER VIS IMAGERY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS...THOUGH SOME THINNING/BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE INDICATED...PARTICULARLY OVER PARTS OF TX S OF AN
OUTFLOW-REINFORCED WARM FRONT LYING WNW-ESE INVOF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY.  ACTIVE CONVECTION ONGOING OVER WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE
WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY...WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT FUELING THE CONVECTION AND RESULTING IN A RISK FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THIS MCS MAY
POSE A RISK FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS -- AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OVER
SRN PORTIONS OF OK.

MEANWHILE NEAR AND S OF THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN N TX AND THE SOUTH
PLAINS/SRN PANHANDLE...FILTERED HEATING OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WILL LIKELY YIELD
1000 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE -- WITH POCKETS OF GREATER
INSTABILITY WHERE HEATING CAN BE MAXIMIZED.

STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEAR AND N OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH ANY WARM-SECTOR DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS/N OF
THE FRONT RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN THE MEAN FLOW FIELD.  THUS -- TORNADO
RISK WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF WITH ANY STRONGER CELL DEVELOPING NEAR THE
BOUNDARY.  MEANWHILE...DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED NEAR THE N-S
TROUGH INVOF THE NM/TX BORDER.  GIVEN FAVORABLE BACKGROUND SHEAR
FEATURING FLOW INCREASING/VEERING WITH HEIGHT...AND THE
MOIST/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IS
EVIDENT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO EXTEND SWD ACROSS THE S
PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN/TRANSPECOS
REGION TO THE RIO GRANDE.  GIVEN A RELATIVELY UNIFORM KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN TX...SIMILAR SEVERE
RISK WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION.  THE RISK
HOWEVER WILL LIKELY BE MANIFESTED IN MULTIPLE BANDS OF
CONVECTION...AS INITIAL STORMS SHIFT NEWD INTO CENTRAL/N TX WITH
TIME WHILE INCREASING ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM
SUPPORTS NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF PRIOR STORMS.  SEVERE RISK
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN
CONCERNS WILL LIKELY BECOME PREDOMINANT THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT GIVEN ANTECEDENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS.

...ERN CO AND ADJACENT WRN KS...
AS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SRN HIGH PLAINS/WRN OK MCS
DEPART ENEWD/AWAY FROM ERN CO...SOME DIURNAL HEATING OF A MODESTLY
MOIST /UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S TD/ BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR LOCALLY --
AWAY FROM AREAS OF PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDINESS.  DESTABILIZATION WILL
BE AIDED BY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT /H5 TEMPERATURES -14 TO -16 PER
MORNING DNR RAOB AND 12Z PROGS/...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW 500 TO 1000
J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE OVER E CENTRAL AND NERN
CO.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON -- AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
PARTICULARLY N OF THE PALMER RIDGE.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ADVANCES SLOWLY EWD...STRONGEST MID-LEVEL SSWLYS
WILL BE GRADUALLY SHUNTED EWD INTO WRN KS WITH TIME.  HOWEVER...WITH
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SELY FLOW ACROSS E CENTRAL AND NERN CO THROUGH
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ENHANCING SHEAR...EXPECT A FEW SUSTAINED/ROTATING
STORMS TO EVOLVE -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED HAIL/WIND RISK AND
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES.  STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SEVERE RISK SHOULD
GRADUALLY WANE AFTER SUNSET.

..GOSS/ROGERS.. 05/23/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 231242
SWODY1
SPC AC 231240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK/TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES
TODAY...WITH A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT EXTENDING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...BROAD SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.  THE RESULT WILL BE
A RATHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
OF EASTERN CO SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KS/OK/TX TODAY.  DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY...AND THE ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTIES OF INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES...CONFIDENCE IN AREAS
OF MORE FOCUSED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOWER THAN USUAL.

...CENTRAL/WESTERN OK INTO CENTRAL TX...
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN THROUGH
THE UPPER 60S.  RADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THE CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT
AND WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO KS.  AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS CLUSTER WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON HEATING
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.  AS STATED
BEFORE...CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC TIMING/LOCATION OF SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.  HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN A BROAD REGION
FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN OK INTO CENTRAL TX INDICATE RATHER FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...CENTRAL/SOUTH TX...
ONE AREA WHERE OVERNIGHT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH
TX.  SEVERAL CAMS SHOW A LARGE BOWING COMPLEX AFFECTING THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY REGIONS THIS EVENING...POSING A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING
OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RISK.

...EASTERN CO...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER SOUTHEAST CO TODAY...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS.  THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE DCVZ AND LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
DEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST CO...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY RISK.  HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

..HART/GLEASON.. 05/23/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 231242
SWODY1
SPC AC 231240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK/TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES
TODAY...WITH A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT EXTENDING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...BROAD SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.  THE RESULT WILL BE
A RATHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
OF EASTERN CO SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KS/OK/TX TODAY.  DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY...AND THE ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTIES OF INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES...CONFIDENCE IN AREAS
OF MORE FOCUSED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOWER THAN USUAL.

...CENTRAL/WESTERN OK INTO CENTRAL TX...
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN THROUGH
THE UPPER 60S.  RADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THE CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT
AND WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO KS.  AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS CLUSTER WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON HEATING
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.  AS STATED
BEFORE...CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC TIMING/LOCATION OF SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.  HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN A BROAD REGION
FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN OK INTO CENTRAL TX INDICATE RATHER FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...CENTRAL/SOUTH TX...
ONE AREA WHERE OVERNIGHT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH
TX.  SEVERAL CAMS SHOW A LARGE BOWING COMPLEX AFFECTING THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY REGIONS THIS EVENING...POSING A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING
OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RISK.

...EASTERN CO...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER SOUTHEAST CO TODAY...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS.  THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE DCVZ AND LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
DEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST CO...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY RISK.  HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

..HART/GLEASON.. 05/23/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 231242
SWODY1
SPC AC 231240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK/TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES
TODAY...WITH A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT EXTENDING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...BROAD SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.  THE RESULT WILL BE
A RATHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
OF EASTERN CO SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KS/OK/TX TODAY.  DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY...AND THE ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTIES OF INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES...CONFIDENCE IN AREAS
OF MORE FOCUSED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOWER THAN USUAL.

...CENTRAL/WESTERN OK INTO CENTRAL TX...
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN THROUGH
THE UPPER 60S.  RADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THE CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT
AND WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO KS.  AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS CLUSTER WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON HEATING
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.  AS STATED
BEFORE...CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC TIMING/LOCATION OF SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.  HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN A BROAD REGION
FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN OK INTO CENTRAL TX INDICATE RATHER FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...CENTRAL/SOUTH TX...
ONE AREA WHERE OVERNIGHT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH
TX.  SEVERAL CAMS SHOW A LARGE BOWING COMPLEX AFFECTING THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY REGIONS THIS EVENING...POSING A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING
OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RISK.

...EASTERN CO...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER SOUTHEAST CO TODAY...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS.  THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE DCVZ AND LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
DEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST CO...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY RISK.  HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

..HART/GLEASON.. 05/23/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 231242
SWODY1
SPC AC 231240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF OK/TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND EASTERN COLORADO.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES
TODAY...WITH A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT EXTENDING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...BROAD SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.  THE RESULT WILL BE
A RATHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
OF EASTERN CO SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF KS/OK/TX TODAY.  DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY...AND THE ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTIES OF INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES...CONFIDENCE IN AREAS
OF MORE FOCUSED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOWER THAN USUAL.

...CENTRAL/WESTERN OK INTO CENTRAL TX...
MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN THROUGH
THE UPPER 60S.  RADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THE CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT
AND WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO KS.  AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS CLUSTER WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON HEATING
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.  AS STATED
BEFORE...CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC TIMING/LOCATION OF SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.  HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN A BROAD REGION
FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN OK INTO CENTRAL TX INDICATE RATHER FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...CENTRAL/SOUTH TX...
ONE AREA WHERE OVERNIGHT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT REGARDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH
TX.  SEVERAL CAMS SHOW A LARGE BOWING COMPLEX AFFECTING THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY REGIONS THIS EVENING...POSING A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING
OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RISK.

...EASTERN CO...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER SOUTHEAST CO TODAY...WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS.  THIS
WILL ENHANCE THE DCVZ AND LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
DEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST CO...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY RISK.  HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

..HART/GLEASON.. 05/23/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 231038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231038
OKZ000-TXZ000-231215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231038Z - 231215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY PARTS OF AN MCS
CROSSING THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT OVERALL LONGEVITY
OF THE RISK APPEARS TO BE LIMITED.

DISCUSSION...AMALGAMATING TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE YIELDED A QLCS FROM
SHERMAN TO PARMER COUNTIES. WITH MEASURED WIND GUSTS AROUND 65-70
MPH REPORTED BY MESONET OBS NEAR THE BOWING PORTION OF THE LINE
AROUND AMARILLO...THE COLD POOL HAS BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SEVERE GUSTS PENETRATING THE NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER THAT LIKELY LIES
FROM ABOUT I-40 NWD. WITH THE SFC WARM FRONT STILL OVER THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS...THIS EWD-PROPAGATING BOWING STRUCTURE SHOULD WEAKEN
IN THE PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS LIKELY PRESENT OVER THE
E-CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. 1-MIN IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS MAY ALREADY BE
UNDERWAY AS THE AREAL EXTENT OF COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAS BEGUN TO
DECREASE IN THE PAST HALF HOUR. BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER
SMALL-SCALE BOW COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING SWRN FLANK OF THE
LINE AS IT SHIFTS EWD CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36180152 36290089 36210028 35930003 35199999 34400075
            34310121 34250272 34380289 34570287 35030173 35590149
            36180152





000
ACUS11 KWNS 231038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231038
OKZ000-TXZ000-231215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231038Z - 231215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY PARTS OF AN MCS
CROSSING THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT OVERALL LONGEVITY
OF THE RISK APPEARS TO BE LIMITED.

DISCUSSION...AMALGAMATING TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE YIELDED A QLCS FROM
SHERMAN TO PARMER COUNTIES. WITH MEASURED WIND GUSTS AROUND 65-70
MPH REPORTED BY MESONET OBS NEAR THE BOWING PORTION OF THE LINE
AROUND AMARILLO...THE COLD POOL HAS BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SEVERE GUSTS PENETRATING THE NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER THAT LIKELY LIES
FROM ABOUT I-40 NWD. WITH THE SFC WARM FRONT STILL OVER THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS...THIS EWD-PROPAGATING BOWING STRUCTURE SHOULD WEAKEN
IN THE PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS LIKELY PRESENT OVER THE
E-CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. 1-MIN IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS MAY ALREADY BE
UNDERWAY AS THE AREAL EXTENT OF COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAS BEGUN TO
DECREASE IN THE PAST HALF HOUR. BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER
SMALL-SCALE BOW COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING SWRN FLANK OF THE
LINE AS IT SHIFTS EWD CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36180152 36290089 36210028 35930003 35199999 34400075
            34310121 34250272 34380289 34570287 35030173 35590149
            36180152






000
ACUS11 KWNS 231038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231038
OKZ000-TXZ000-231215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231038Z - 231215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY PARTS OF AN MCS
CROSSING THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT OVERALL LONGEVITY
OF THE RISK APPEARS TO BE LIMITED.

DISCUSSION...AMALGAMATING TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE YIELDED A QLCS FROM
SHERMAN TO PARMER COUNTIES. WITH MEASURED WIND GUSTS AROUND 65-70
MPH REPORTED BY MESONET OBS NEAR THE BOWING PORTION OF THE LINE
AROUND AMARILLO...THE COLD POOL HAS BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SEVERE GUSTS PENETRATING THE NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER THAT LIKELY LIES
FROM ABOUT I-40 NWD. WITH THE SFC WARM FRONT STILL OVER THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS...THIS EWD-PROPAGATING BOWING STRUCTURE SHOULD WEAKEN
IN THE PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS LIKELY PRESENT OVER THE
E-CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. 1-MIN IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS MAY ALREADY BE
UNDERWAY AS THE AREAL EXTENT OF COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAS BEGUN TO
DECREASE IN THE PAST HALF HOUR. BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER
SMALL-SCALE BOW COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING SWRN FLANK OF THE
LINE AS IT SHIFTS EWD CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36180152 36290089 36210028 35930003 35199999 34400075
            34310121 34250272 34380289 34570287 35030173 35590149
            36180152





000
ACUS11 KWNS 231038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231038
OKZ000-TXZ000-231215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231038Z - 231215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY PARTS OF AN MCS
CROSSING THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT OVERALL LONGEVITY
OF THE RISK APPEARS TO BE LIMITED.

DISCUSSION...AMALGAMATING TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE YIELDED A QLCS FROM
SHERMAN TO PARMER COUNTIES. WITH MEASURED WIND GUSTS AROUND 65-70
MPH REPORTED BY MESONET OBS NEAR THE BOWING PORTION OF THE LINE
AROUND AMARILLO...THE COLD POOL HAS BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SEVERE GUSTS PENETRATING THE NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER THAT LIKELY LIES
FROM ABOUT I-40 NWD. WITH THE SFC WARM FRONT STILL OVER THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS...THIS EWD-PROPAGATING BOWING STRUCTURE SHOULD WEAKEN
IN THE PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS LIKELY PRESENT OVER THE
E-CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. 1-MIN IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS MAY ALREADY BE
UNDERWAY AS THE AREAL EXTENT OF COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAS BEGUN TO
DECREASE IN THE PAST HALF HOUR. BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER
SMALL-SCALE BOW COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING SWRN FLANK OF THE
LINE AS IT SHIFTS EWD CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36180152 36290089 36210028 35930003 35199999 34400075
            34310121 34250272 34380289 34570287 35030173 35590149
            36180152





000
ACUS11 KWNS 231038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231038
OKZ000-TXZ000-231215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0721
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231038Z - 231215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY PARTS OF AN MCS
CROSSING THE PANHANDLE THROUGH MID-MORNING...BUT OVERALL LONGEVITY
OF THE RISK APPEARS TO BE LIMITED.

DISCUSSION...AMALGAMATING TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE YIELDED A QLCS FROM
SHERMAN TO PARMER COUNTIES. WITH MEASURED WIND GUSTS AROUND 65-70
MPH REPORTED BY MESONET OBS NEAR THE BOWING PORTION OF THE LINE
AROUND AMARILLO...THE COLD POOL HAS BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SEVERE GUSTS PENETRATING THE NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER THAT LIKELY LIES
FROM ABOUT I-40 NWD. WITH THE SFC WARM FRONT STILL OVER THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS...THIS EWD-PROPAGATING BOWING STRUCTURE SHOULD WEAKEN
IN THE PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS LIKELY PRESENT OVER THE
E-CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. 1-MIN IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS MAY ALREADY BE
UNDERWAY AS THE AREAL EXTENT OF COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAS BEGUN TO
DECREASE IN THE PAST HALF HOUR. BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER
SMALL-SCALE BOW COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING SWRN FLANK OF THE
LINE AS IT SHIFTS EWD CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36180152 36290089 36210028 35930003 35199999 34400075
            34310121 34250272 34380289 34570287 35030173 35590149
            36180152






000
ACUS03 KWNS 230715
SWODY3
SPC AC 230715

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM TEXAS INTO THE
MID SOUTH REGION ON MEMORIAL DAY.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY.  GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS TEXAS WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

...TEXAS...

NRN STREAM MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST INTO NRN MEXICO DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD BEFORE EJECTING
INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS EARLY MEMORIAL DAY.  WHILE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...SUFFICIENT
SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND PERHAPS
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IF LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS DO
NOT DISRUPT DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT.  TROPICAL PLUME OF HIGH
PW...1.75-2 INCHES...WILL PERSIST ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE WRN GULF
BASIN INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.  AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS
INTO TX CONVECTION SHOULD EASILY DEVELOP...LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD THEN SPREAD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX.  GIVEN THE LACK OF
MEANINGFUL INHIBITION NUMEROUS STORMS...CLUSTERS AND MERGERS ARE
EXPECTED.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MULTI-FACETED STORM MODES AND
SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR AT LEAST A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
WIND...PERHAPS EVEN A FEW TORNADOES IF SUPERCELLS EVOLVE.  GIVEN THE
HIGH PW VALUES THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.


...UPPER MS VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS...

DAY2 SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NNEWD INTO THE MID-UPPER
MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO SPEED MAX APPROACHING
THE BIG BEND.  CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE EARLY
WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT LIKELY SPREADING INTO NW ONTARIO BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TRAILING
FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING PEAK HEATING.  GIVEN THE
WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS
ACROSS THIS REGION FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW.. 05/23/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 230715
SWODY3
SPC AC 230715

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM TEXAS INTO THE
MID SOUTH REGION ON MEMORIAL DAY.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY.  GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS TEXAS WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

...TEXAS...

NRN STREAM MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST INTO NRN MEXICO DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD BEFORE EJECTING
INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS EARLY MEMORIAL DAY.  WHILE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...SUFFICIENT
SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND PERHAPS
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IF LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS DO
NOT DISRUPT DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT.  TROPICAL PLUME OF HIGH
PW...1.75-2 INCHES...WILL PERSIST ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE WRN GULF
BASIN INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.  AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS
INTO TX CONVECTION SHOULD EASILY DEVELOP...LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD THEN SPREAD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX.  GIVEN THE LACK OF
MEANINGFUL INHIBITION NUMEROUS STORMS...CLUSTERS AND MERGERS ARE
EXPECTED.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MULTI-FACETED STORM MODES AND
SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR AT LEAST A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
WIND...PERHAPS EVEN A FEW TORNADOES IF SUPERCELLS EVOLVE.  GIVEN THE
HIGH PW VALUES THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.


...UPPER MS VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS...

DAY2 SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NNEWD INTO THE MID-UPPER
MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO SPEED MAX APPROACHING
THE BIG BEND.  CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE EARLY
WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT LIKELY SPREADING INTO NW ONTARIO BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TRAILING
FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING PEAK HEATING.  GIVEN THE
WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS
ACROSS THIS REGION FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW.. 05/23/2015





000
ACUS03 KWNS 230715
SWODY3
SPC AC 230715

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM TEXAS INTO THE
MID SOUTH REGION ON MEMORIAL DAY.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY.  GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS TEXAS WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

...TEXAS...

NRN STREAM MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST INTO NRN MEXICO DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD BEFORE EJECTING
INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS EARLY MEMORIAL DAY.  WHILE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...SUFFICIENT
SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND PERHAPS
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IF LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS DO
NOT DISRUPT DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT.  TROPICAL PLUME OF HIGH
PW...1.75-2 INCHES...WILL PERSIST ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE WRN GULF
BASIN INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.  AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS
INTO TX CONVECTION SHOULD EASILY DEVELOP...LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD THEN SPREAD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX.  GIVEN THE LACK OF
MEANINGFUL INHIBITION NUMEROUS STORMS...CLUSTERS AND MERGERS ARE
EXPECTED.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MULTI-FACETED STORM MODES AND
SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR AT LEAST A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
WIND...PERHAPS EVEN A FEW TORNADOES IF SUPERCELLS EVOLVE.  GIVEN THE
HIGH PW VALUES THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.


...UPPER MS VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS...

DAY2 SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NNEWD INTO THE MID-UPPER
MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO SPEED MAX APPROACHING
THE BIG BEND.  CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE EARLY
WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT LIKELY SPREADING INTO NW ONTARIO BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TRAILING
FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING PEAK HEATING.  GIVEN THE
WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS
ACROSS THIS REGION FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW.. 05/23/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 230715
SWODY3
SPC AC 230715

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM TEXAS INTO THE
MID SOUTH REGION ON MEMORIAL DAY.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY.  GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS TEXAS WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

...TEXAS...

NRN STREAM MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST INTO NRN MEXICO DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD BEFORE EJECTING
INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS EARLY MEMORIAL DAY.  WHILE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...SUFFICIENT
SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND PERHAPS
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IF LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS DO
NOT DISRUPT DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT.  TROPICAL PLUME OF HIGH
PW...1.75-2 INCHES...WILL PERSIST ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE WRN GULF
BASIN INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.  AS LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADS
INTO TX CONVECTION SHOULD EASILY DEVELOP...LIKELY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD THEN SPREAD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX.  GIVEN THE LACK OF
MEANINGFUL INHIBITION NUMEROUS STORMS...CLUSTERS AND MERGERS ARE
EXPECTED.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MULTI-FACETED STORM MODES AND
SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR AT LEAST A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
WIND...PERHAPS EVEN A FEW TORNADOES IF SUPERCELLS EVOLVE.  GIVEN THE
HIGH PW VALUES THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.


...UPPER MS VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS...

DAY2 SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NNEWD INTO THE MID-UPPER
MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO SPEED MAX APPROACHING
THE BIG BEND.  CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE EARLY
WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT LIKELY SPREADING INTO NW ONTARIO BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TRAILING
FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING PEAK HEATING.  GIVEN THE
WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS
ACROSS THIS REGION FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW.. 05/23/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 230623
SWODY2
SPC AC 230623

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
TEXAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

CORRECTED PROBABILITY GRAPHIC.

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS WHERE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.
 ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND MAY ACCOMPANY STRONG CONVECTION
FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

BROAD BUT WEAK 12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS SUNDAY AHEAD OF LOW-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT EJECTING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INTO THE
MAIN BODY OF TX BY 24/18Z...THEN NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  EXTREMELY HIGH PW VALUES...RANGING FROM 1.75-2
INCHES...WILL SURGE NWD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE WRN GULF
BASIN...NWD INTO ERN KS.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE WITHIN MODESTLY SHEARED BUT WEAK LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT.  MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE DRY LINE...BUT WITHIN POST SHORT WAVE
REGIME.  LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE GREATEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX PRIOR TO
LARGE SCALE FORCING EJECTING NORTH INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.  GREATEST
SEVERE RISK WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION FOR TSTM ACTIVITY THAT
EVOLVES ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITHIN BASE OF
EJECTING TROUGH.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.  IT/S NOT CLEAR
IF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND FOR THIS REASON 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS
WILL BE MAINTAINED.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN
SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH SEASONALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL SLY 500MB
FLOW.  A FEW SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION
THAT WOULD POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 05/23/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 230623
SWODY2
SPC AC 230623

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
TEXAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

CORRECTED PROBABILITY GRAPHIC.

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS WHERE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.
 ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND MAY ACCOMPANY STRONG CONVECTION
FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

BROAD BUT WEAK 12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS SUNDAY AHEAD OF LOW-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT EJECTING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INTO THE
MAIN BODY OF TX BY 24/18Z...THEN NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  EXTREMELY HIGH PW VALUES...RANGING FROM 1.75-2
INCHES...WILL SURGE NWD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE WRN GULF
BASIN...NWD INTO ERN KS.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE WITHIN MODESTLY SHEARED BUT WEAK LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT.  MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE DRY LINE...BUT WITHIN POST SHORT WAVE
REGIME.  LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE GREATEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX PRIOR TO
LARGE SCALE FORCING EJECTING NORTH INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.  GREATEST
SEVERE RISK WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION FOR TSTM ACTIVITY THAT
EVOLVES ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITHIN BASE OF
EJECTING TROUGH.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.  IT/S NOT CLEAR
IF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND FOR THIS REASON 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS
WILL BE MAINTAINED.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN
SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH SEASONALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL SLY 500MB
FLOW.  A FEW SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION
THAT WOULD POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 05/23/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 230556
SWODY1
SPC AC 230555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AREA
FROM NORTHERN CO...SERN WY AND SWRN NEB TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE REST
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS...WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADO
THREAT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP WRN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TOWARD ERN
WY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS CA
TOWARD THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.  THE EQUATORWARD EXTENDING
TROUGH...ATTENDANT TO THE FOUR CORNERS CLOSED LOW...WILL ADVANCE
EAST THROUGH THE SWRN STATES AND NRN MEXICO...RESULTING IN A LARGE
AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM CO/NM INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES AS AN UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ANCHORED FROM
THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST AND THE
BAHAMAS.  THE EVOLUTION IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
DEEP-LAYER MERIDIONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BY
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A LEE LOW WILL DEEPEN TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CO...AND THEN TRACK NORTH TOWARD THE NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT.  A DRY
LINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THIS LOW THROUGH FAR WEST TX TO THE ERN
PART OF THE TRANSPECOS REGION IN SOUTHWEST TX THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH ACROSS OK THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH KS
TONIGHT.  THE ERN PORTION OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD REACH SWRN AR BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHOULD BE DRAPED SEWD ACROSS THE
OZARK PLATEAU TO NRN MS BY 12Z SUNDAY.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL TRANSLATE NEWD FROM THE BASE OF THE
WRN U.S. TROUGH AND MEXICO ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE STORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST FOR A SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN VICINITY OF
THE DRY LINE AND NWD INTO ERN CO...WHILE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SLIGHT
RISK CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE IS LOWER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN POLEWARD MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE MORE SELY INTO ERN CO TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEPENING
SERN CO SURFACE LOW.  STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPEST LAPSE
RATES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE DRY LINE AND NWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  IN THESE LOCATIONS...MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-55 KT SUGGEST
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
RISK FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH DESTABILIZATION INTO NERN CO MAY BE WEAKER THAN LOCATIONS
FARTHER SWD...CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT EXISTS IN THIS AREA AS THE FOUR CORNERS
LOW TRACKS NEWD.

EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LIMITED SURFACE HEATING
EXISTS DUE TO CLOUD COVER.  DESPITE THIS FACTOR AND THE PRESENCE OF
WEAK LAPSE RATES...POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TSTMS...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL BE ONGOING AT 12Z
TODAY ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES SWD THROUGH WEST TX AND POSSIBLY
INTO FAR WRN OK.  MODELS SUGGEST NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE ERN EXTENT OF THIS COMPLEX AS IT SPREADS EWD THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO KS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WEST TX AS FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREAD
ACROSS THIS REGION.  WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE HAIL THREAT
EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS...WHILE VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT FAVORS MIXED MODES WITH A THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  SEVERE THREAT COULD
LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH/FORCING
SHIFT EAST.

..PETERS/PICCA.. 05/23/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 230556
SWODY1
SPC AC 230555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AREA
FROM NORTHERN CO...SERN WY AND SWRN NEB TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE REST
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS...WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADO
THREAT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP WRN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TOWARD ERN
WY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS CA
TOWARD THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.  THE EQUATORWARD EXTENDING
TROUGH...ATTENDANT TO THE FOUR CORNERS CLOSED LOW...WILL ADVANCE
EAST THROUGH THE SWRN STATES AND NRN MEXICO...RESULTING IN A LARGE
AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM CO/NM INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES AS AN UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ANCHORED FROM
THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST AND THE
BAHAMAS.  THE EVOLUTION IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
DEEP-LAYER MERIDIONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BY
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A LEE LOW WILL DEEPEN TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CO...AND THEN TRACK NORTH TOWARD THE NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT.  A DRY
LINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THIS LOW THROUGH FAR WEST TX TO THE ERN
PART OF THE TRANSPECOS REGION IN SOUTHWEST TX THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH ACROSS OK THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH KS
TONIGHT.  THE ERN PORTION OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD REACH SWRN AR BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHOULD BE DRAPED SEWD ACROSS THE
OZARK PLATEAU TO NRN MS BY 12Z SUNDAY.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL TRANSLATE NEWD FROM THE BASE OF THE
WRN U.S. TROUGH AND MEXICO ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE STORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST FOR A SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN VICINITY OF
THE DRY LINE AND NWD INTO ERN CO...WHILE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SLIGHT
RISK CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE IS LOWER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN POLEWARD MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE MORE SELY INTO ERN CO TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEPENING
SERN CO SURFACE LOW.  STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPEST LAPSE
RATES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE DRY LINE AND NWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  IN THESE LOCATIONS...MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-55 KT SUGGEST
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
RISK FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH DESTABILIZATION INTO NERN CO MAY BE WEAKER THAN LOCATIONS
FARTHER SWD...CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT EXISTS IN THIS AREA AS THE FOUR CORNERS
LOW TRACKS NEWD.

EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LIMITED SURFACE HEATING
EXISTS DUE TO CLOUD COVER.  DESPITE THIS FACTOR AND THE PRESENCE OF
WEAK LAPSE RATES...POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TSTMS...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL BE ONGOING AT 12Z
TODAY ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES SWD THROUGH WEST TX AND POSSIBLY
INTO FAR WRN OK.  MODELS SUGGEST NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE ERN EXTENT OF THIS COMPLEX AS IT SPREADS EWD THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO KS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WEST TX AS FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREAD
ACROSS THIS REGION.  WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE HAIL THREAT
EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS...WHILE VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT FAVORS MIXED MODES WITH A THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  SEVERE THREAT COULD
LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH/FORCING
SHIFT EAST.

..PETERS/PICCA.. 05/23/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 230556
SWODY1
SPC AC 230555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AREA
FROM NORTHERN CO...SERN WY AND SWRN NEB TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE REST
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS...WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADO
THREAT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP WRN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TOWARD ERN
WY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS CA
TOWARD THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.  THE EQUATORWARD EXTENDING
TROUGH...ATTENDANT TO THE FOUR CORNERS CLOSED LOW...WILL ADVANCE
EAST THROUGH THE SWRN STATES AND NRN MEXICO...RESULTING IN A LARGE
AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM CO/NM INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES AS AN UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ANCHORED FROM
THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST AND THE
BAHAMAS.  THE EVOLUTION IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
DEEP-LAYER MERIDIONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BY
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A LEE LOW WILL DEEPEN TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CO...AND THEN TRACK NORTH TOWARD THE NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT.  A DRY
LINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THIS LOW THROUGH FAR WEST TX TO THE ERN
PART OF THE TRANSPECOS REGION IN SOUTHWEST TX THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH ACROSS OK THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH KS
TONIGHT.  THE ERN PORTION OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD REACH SWRN AR BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHOULD BE DRAPED SEWD ACROSS THE
OZARK PLATEAU TO NRN MS BY 12Z SUNDAY.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL TRANSLATE NEWD FROM THE BASE OF THE
WRN U.S. TROUGH AND MEXICO ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE STORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST FOR A SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN VICINITY OF
THE DRY LINE AND NWD INTO ERN CO...WHILE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SLIGHT
RISK CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE IS LOWER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN POLEWARD MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE MORE SELY INTO ERN CO TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEPENING
SERN CO SURFACE LOW.  STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPEST LAPSE
RATES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE DRY LINE AND NWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  IN THESE LOCATIONS...MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-55 KT SUGGEST
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
RISK FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH DESTABILIZATION INTO NERN CO MAY BE WEAKER THAN LOCATIONS
FARTHER SWD...CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT EXISTS IN THIS AREA AS THE FOUR CORNERS
LOW TRACKS NEWD.

EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LIMITED SURFACE HEATING
EXISTS DUE TO CLOUD COVER.  DESPITE THIS FACTOR AND THE PRESENCE OF
WEAK LAPSE RATES...POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TSTMS...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL BE ONGOING AT 12Z
TODAY ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES SWD THROUGH WEST TX AND POSSIBLY
INTO FAR WRN OK.  MODELS SUGGEST NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE ERN EXTENT OF THIS COMPLEX AS IT SPREADS EWD THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO KS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WEST TX AS FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREAD
ACROSS THIS REGION.  WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE HAIL THREAT
EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS...WHILE VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT FAVORS MIXED MODES WITH A THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  SEVERE THREAT COULD
LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH/FORCING
SHIFT EAST.

..PETERS/PICCA.. 05/23/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 230556
SWODY1
SPC AC 230555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AREA
FROM NORTHERN CO...SERN WY AND SWRN NEB TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE REST
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS...WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADO
THREAT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP WRN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TOWARD ERN
WY AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ACROSS CA
TOWARD THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.  THE EQUATORWARD EXTENDING
TROUGH...ATTENDANT TO THE FOUR CORNERS CLOSED LOW...WILL ADVANCE
EAST THROUGH THE SWRN STATES AND NRN MEXICO...RESULTING IN A LARGE
AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS FROM CO/NM INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES AS AN UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ANCHORED FROM
THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST AND THE
BAHAMAS.  THE EVOLUTION IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
DEEP-LAYER MERIDIONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BY
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A LEE LOW WILL DEEPEN TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CO...AND THEN TRACK NORTH TOWARD THE NEB PANHANDLE TONIGHT.  A DRY
LINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THIS LOW THROUGH FAR WEST TX TO THE ERN
PART OF THE TRANSPECOS REGION IN SOUTHWEST TX THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
A WARM FRONT ADVANCES NORTH ACROSS OK THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH KS
TONIGHT.  THE ERN PORTION OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD REACH SWRN AR BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SHOULD BE DRAPED SEWD ACROSS THE
OZARK PLATEAU TO NRN MS BY 12Z SUNDAY.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL TRANSLATE NEWD FROM THE BASE OF THE
WRN U.S. TROUGH AND MEXICO ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE STORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST FOR A SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN VICINITY OF
THE DRY LINE AND NWD INTO ERN CO...WHILE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SLIGHT
RISK CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE IS LOWER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN POLEWARD MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE MORE SELY INTO ERN CO TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEPENING
SERN CO SURFACE LOW.  STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPEST LAPSE
RATES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AND WEST OF THE DRY LINE AND NWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  IN THESE LOCATIONS...MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-55 KT SUGGEST
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
RISK FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH DESTABILIZATION INTO NERN CO MAY BE WEAKER THAN LOCATIONS
FARTHER SWD...CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT EXISTS IN THIS AREA AS THE FOUR CORNERS
LOW TRACKS NEWD.

EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR LIMITED SURFACE HEATING
EXISTS DUE TO CLOUD COVER.  DESPITE THIS FACTOR AND THE PRESENCE OF
WEAK LAPSE RATES...POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TSTMS...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL BE ONGOING AT 12Z
TODAY ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES SWD THROUGH WEST TX AND POSSIBLY
INTO FAR WRN OK.  MODELS SUGGEST NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE ERN EXTENT OF THIS COMPLEX AS IT SPREADS EWD THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO KS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF FAR WEST TX AS FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREAD
ACROSS THIS REGION.  WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE HAIL THREAT
EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS...WHILE VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT FAVORS MIXED MODES WITH A THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  SEVERE THREAT COULD
LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH/FORCING
SHIFT EAST.

..PETERS/PICCA.. 05/23/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 230535
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230535
TXZ000-NMZ000-230730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0720
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...WRN PANHANDLE/S PLAINS OF TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 230535Z - 230730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL
AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ALTHOUGH STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE /ESPECIALLY OVER SERN NM/.

DISCUSSION...PROBABLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM HAS QUICKLY TURNED
SUPERCELLULAR IN DE BACA COUNTY NM. ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE S/SW
WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z FED BY ROBUST LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION AND THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DOWNSTREAM OF THE AZ/UT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINING SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE
OVER SERN NM THROUGH ABOUT 08-09Z ALONG THE NWRN EXTENT OF THE GULF
MOISTURE PLUME CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS. ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS
ANTICIPATED INTO TX...INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO A CLUSTER
MODE SHOULD DELETERIOUSLY EFFECT THIS DESTABILIZATION AND SHOULD
MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHARACTER. THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM CAM GUIDANCE WITH MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS
SIMULATED DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34560411 35050336 35440254 35430186 34790166 34190179
            33150264 32870327 32830421 33070498 33680491 34560411





000
ACUS11 KWNS 230535
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230535
TXZ000-NMZ000-230730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0720
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...WRN PANHANDLE/S PLAINS OF TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 230535Z - 230730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL
AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ALTHOUGH STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE /ESPECIALLY OVER SERN NM/.

DISCUSSION...PROBABLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM HAS QUICKLY TURNED
SUPERCELLULAR IN DE BACA COUNTY NM. ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE S/SW
WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z FED BY ROBUST LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION AND THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DOWNSTREAM OF THE AZ/UT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINING SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE
OVER SERN NM THROUGH ABOUT 08-09Z ALONG THE NWRN EXTENT OF THE GULF
MOISTURE PLUME CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS. ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS
ANTICIPATED INTO TX...INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO A CLUSTER
MODE SHOULD DELETERIOUSLY EFFECT THIS DESTABILIZATION AND SHOULD
MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHARACTER. THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM CAM GUIDANCE WITH MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS
SIMULATED DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34560411 35050336 35440254 35430186 34790166 34190179
            33150264 32870327 32830421 33070498 33680491 34560411





000
ACUS11 KWNS 230535
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230535
TXZ000-NMZ000-230730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0720
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...WRN PANHANDLE/S PLAINS OF TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 230535Z - 230730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL
AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ALTHOUGH STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE /ESPECIALLY OVER SERN NM/.

DISCUSSION...PROBABLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM HAS QUICKLY TURNED
SUPERCELLULAR IN DE BACA COUNTY NM. ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE S/SW
WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z FED BY ROBUST LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION AND THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DOWNSTREAM OF THE AZ/UT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINING SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE
OVER SERN NM THROUGH ABOUT 08-09Z ALONG THE NWRN EXTENT OF THE GULF
MOISTURE PLUME CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS. ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS
ANTICIPATED INTO TX...INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO A CLUSTER
MODE SHOULD DELETERIOUSLY EFFECT THIS DESTABILIZATION AND SHOULD
MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHARACTER. THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM CAM GUIDANCE WITH MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS
SIMULATED DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34560411 35050336 35440254 35430186 34790166 34190179
            33150264 32870327 32830421 33070498 33680491 34560411






000
ACUS11 KWNS 230535
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230535
TXZ000-NMZ000-230730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0720
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...WRN PANHANDLE/S PLAINS OF TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 230535Z - 230730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL
AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ALTHOUGH STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE /ESPECIALLY OVER SERN NM/.

DISCUSSION...PROBABLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM HAS QUICKLY TURNED
SUPERCELLULAR IN DE BACA COUNTY NM. ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE S/SW
WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z FED BY ROBUST LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION AND THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DOWNSTREAM OF THE AZ/UT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINING SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE
OVER SERN NM THROUGH ABOUT 08-09Z ALONG THE NWRN EXTENT OF THE GULF
MOISTURE PLUME CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS. ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS
ANTICIPATED INTO TX...INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO A CLUSTER
MODE SHOULD DELETERIOUSLY EFFECT THIS DESTABILIZATION AND SHOULD
MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHARACTER. THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM CAM GUIDANCE WITH MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS
SIMULATED DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34560411 35050336 35440254 35430186 34790166 34190179
            33150264 32870327 32830421 33070498 33680491 34560411





000
ACUS11 KWNS 230535
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230535
TXZ000-NMZ000-230730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0720
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...WRN PANHANDLE/S PLAINS OF TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 230535Z - 230730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL
AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ALTHOUGH STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE /ESPECIALLY OVER SERN NM/.

DISCUSSION...PROBABLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM HAS QUICKLY TURNED
SUPERCELLULAR IN DE BACA COUNTY NM. ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE S/SW
WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z FED BY ROBUST LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION AND THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DOWNSTREAM OF THE AZ/UT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINING SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE
OVER SERN NM THROUGH ABOUT 08-09Z ALONG THE NWRN EXTENT OF THE GULF
MOISTURE PLUME CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS. ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS
ANTICIPATED INTO TX...INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO A CLUSTER
MODE SHOULD DELETERIOUSLY EFFECT THIS DESTABILIZATION AND SHOULD
MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHARACTER. THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM CAM GUIDANCE WITH MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS
SIMULATED DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34560411 35050336 35440254 35430186 34790166 34190179
            33150264 32870327 32830421 33070498 33680491 34560411






000
ACUS11 KWNS 230535
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230535
TXZ000-NMZ000-230730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0720
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...WRN PANHANDLE/S PLAINS OF TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 230535Z - 230730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL
AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ALTHOUGH STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE /ESPECIALLY OVER SERN NM/.

DISCUSSION...PROBABLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM HAS QUICKLY TURNED
SUPERCELLULAR IN DE BACA COUNTY NM. ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE S/SW
WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z FED BY ROBUST LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION AND THE LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION DOWNSTREAM OF THE AZ/UT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINING SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE
OVER SERN NM THROUGH ABOUT 08-09Z ALONG THE NWRN EXTENT OF THE GULF
MOISTURE PLUME CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS. ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS
ANTICIPATED INTO TX...INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INTO A CLUSTER
MODE SHOULD DELETERIOUSLY EFFECT THIS DESTABILIZATION AND SHOULD
MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHARACTER. THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO IS
SUPPORTED BY SHORT-TERM CAM GUIDANCE WITH MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS
SIMULATED DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DEVELOPMENT.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34560411 35050336 35440254 35430186 34790166 34190179
            33150264 32870327 32830421 33070498 33680491 34560411





000
ACUS02 KWNS 230520
SWODY2
SPC AC 230519

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
TEXAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS WHERE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.
 ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND MAY ACCOMPANY STRONG CONVECTION
FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

BROAD BUT WEAK 12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS SUNDAY AHEAD OF LOW-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT EJECTING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INTO THE
MAIN BODY OF TX BY 24/18Z...THEN NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  EXTREMELY HIGH PW VALUES...RANGING FROM 1.75-2
INCHES...WILL SURGE NWD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE WRN GULF
BASIN...NWD INTO ERN KS.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE WITHIN MODESTLY SHEARED BUT WEAK LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT.  MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE DRY LINE...BUT WITHIN POST SHORT WAVE
REGIME.  LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE GREATEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX PRIOR TO
LARGE SCALE FORCING EJECTING NORTH INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.  GREATEST
SEVERE RISK WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION FOR TSTM ACTIVITY THAT
EVOLVES ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITHIN BASE OF
EJECTING TROUGH.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.  IT/S NOT CLEAR
IF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND FOR THIS REASON 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS
WILL BE MAINTAINED.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN
SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH SEASONALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL SLY 500MB
FLOW.  A FEW SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION
THAT WOULD POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 05/23/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 230520
SWODY2
SPC AC 230519

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
TEXAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS WHERE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.
 ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND MAY ACCOMPANY STRONG CONVECTION
FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

BROAD BUT WEAK 12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS SUNDAY AHEAD OF LOW-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT EJECTING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INTO THE
MAIN BODY OF TX BY 24/18Z...THEN NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  EXTREMELY HIGH PW VALUES...RANGING FROM 1.75-2
INCHES...WILL SURGE NWD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE WRN GULF
BASIN...NWD INTO ERN KS.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE WITHIN MODESTLY SHEARED BUT WEAK LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT.  MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE DRY LINE...BUT WITHIN POST SHORT WAVE
REGIME.  LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE GREATEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX PRIOR TO
LARGE SCALE FORCING EJECTING NORTH INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.  GREATEST
SEVERE RISK WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION FOR TSTM ACTIVITY THAT
EVOLVES ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITHIN BASE OF
EJECTING TROUGH.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.  IT/S NOT CLEAR
IF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND FOR THIS REASON 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS
WILL BE MAINTAINED.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN
SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH SEASONALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL SLY 500MB
FLOW.  A FEW SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION
THAT WOULD POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 05/23/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 230520
SWODY2
SPC AC 230519

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
TEXAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS WHERE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.
 ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND MAY ACCOMPANY STRONG CONVECTION
FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

BROAD BUT WEAK 12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS SUNDAY AHEAD OF LOW-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT EJECTING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INTO THE
MAIN BODY OF TX BY 24/18Z...THEN NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  EXTREMELY HIGH PW VALUES...RANGING FROM 1.75-2
INCHES...WILL SURGE NWD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE WRN GULF
BASIN...NWD INTO ERN KS.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE WITHIN MODESTLY SHEARED BUT WEAK LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT.  MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE DRY LINE...BUT WITHIN POST SHORT WAVE
REGIME.  LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE GREATEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX PRIOR TO
LARGE SCALE FORCING EJECTING NORTH INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.  GREATEST
SEVERE RISK WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION FOR TSTM ACTIVITY THAT
EVOLVES ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITHIN BASE OF
EJECTING TROUGH.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.  IT/S NOT CLEAR
IF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND FOR THIS REASON 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS
WILL BE MAINTAINED.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN
SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH SEASONALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL SLY 500MB
FLOW.  A FEW SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION
THAT WOULD POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 05/23/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 230520
SWODY2
SPC AC 230519

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
TEXAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS WHERE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.
 ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND MAY ACCOMPANY STRONG CONVECTION
FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

BROAD BUT WEAK 12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS SUNDAY AHEAD OF LOW-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT EJECTING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INTO THE
MAIN BODY OF TX BY 24/18Z...THEN NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  EXTREMELY HIGH PW VALUES...RANGING FROM 1.75-2
INCHES...WILL SURGE NWD AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE WRN GULF
BASIN...NWD INTO ERN KS.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE SHORT WAVE WITHIN MODESTLY SHEARED BUT WEAK LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT.  MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE DRY LINE...BUT WITHIN POST SHORT WAVE
REGIME.  LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE GREATEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX PRIOR TO
LARGE SCALE FORCING EJECTING NORTH INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.  GREATEST
SEVERE RISK WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION FOR TSTM ACTIVITY THAT
EVOLVES ALONG SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITHIN BASE OF
EJECTING TROUGH.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.  IT/S NOT CLEAR
IF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND FOR THIS REASON 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS
WILL BE MAINTAINED.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN
SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH SEASONALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL SLY 500MB
FLOW.  A FEW SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION
THAT WOULD POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 05/23/2015






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