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000
ACUS01 KWNS 280051
SWODY1
SPC AC 280050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.  SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE STRONG...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY APPROACHING
OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS.

...SYNOPSIS/CENTRAL PLAINS...
ASIDE FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND EASTERN
GREAT BASIN INTO THE ROCKIES...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE CURVING FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ALONG THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY ALREADY APPEARS
TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF WANING AS THE SUPPORTING BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHERE MODEST MID/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...COUPLED WITH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION...ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  DUE IN PART TO GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO THE
EAST OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...AND RATHER MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT BEST.  WHILE IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE THAT NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING...FROM
THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...COULD
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SEEMS RELATIVELY
LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR.. 08/28/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 280051
SWODY1
SPC AC 280050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.  SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE STRONG...PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY APPROACHING
OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS.

...SYNOPSIS/CENTRAL PLAINS...
ASIDE FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND EASTERN
GREAT BASIN INTO THE ROCKIES...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE CURVING FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ALONG THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY ALREADY APPEARS
TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF WANING AS THE SUPPORTING BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHERE MODEST MID/UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A
CLOSED LOW SLOWLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...COUPLED WITH LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION...ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
FRONT...PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
NIGHT.  DUE IN PART TO GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO THE
EAST OF THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...AND RATHER MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT BEST.  WHILE IT IS STILL
POSSIBLE THAT NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING...FROM
THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...COULD
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SEEMS RELATIVELY
LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR.. 08/28/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 271948
SWODY1
SPC AC 271947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL...DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN KS AND A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
REF MCD 1627 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...NORTHEAST STATES...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE
AND THE 5 PERCENT WIND AREA BASED ON CURRENT SFC OBS AND LOCATION OF
THE COLD FRONT. REF MCD 1628 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...OH VALLEY TO LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE AND 5
PERCENT WIND AREA BASED ON CURRENT LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT.

..LEITMAN.. 08/27/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...

A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EDGES INTO
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROGRESS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE BASE
OF A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ERN CANADA.

AT THE SURFACE...A LEE CYCLONE WILL PERSIST OVER ERN CO TODAY BEFORE
DEVELOPING INTO WRN KS OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY...WHILE THE ERN PORTION OF
THIS BOUNDARY SETTLES SEWD THROUGH THE NERN U.S. AS A COLD FRONT.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION
OVER CNTRL KS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS
LARGELY IN THE 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. SCATTERED
SURFACE-BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE ERN CO SURFACE LOW AND WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER NERN CO AS HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE CNTRL ROCKIES TROUGH.

THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A VERTICALLY VEERING
WIND PROFILE WITH 30-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...SOME
HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES INTO THIS EVENING.

...NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY
HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO
FOSTER A BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS BY AFTERNOON. WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHEN COUPLED WITH A STEADILY STRENGTHENING MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELD...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

...OH VALLEY TO LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE OWING TO THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY SERVE AS
FOCI FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO
STRONG AFTERNOON INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1500-3000+ J PER KG/ AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 271948
SWODY1
SPC AC 271947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL...DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WERE
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN KS AND A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
REF MCD 1627 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...NORTHEAST STATES...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE
AND THE 5 PERCENT WIND AREA BASED ON CURRENT SFC OBS AND LOCATION OF
THE COLD FRONT. REF MCD 1628 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...OH VALLEY TO LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE AND 5
PERCENT WIND AREA BASED ON CURRENT LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT.

..LEITMAN.. 08/27/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...

A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EDGES INTO
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROGRESS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE BASE
OF A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ERN CANADA.

AT THE SURFACE...A LEE CYCLONE WILL PERSIST OVER ERN CO TODAY BEFORE
DEVELOPING INTO WRN KS OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY...WHILE THE ERN PORTION OF
THIS BOUNDARY SETTLES SEWD THROUGH THE NERN U.S. AS A COLD FRONT.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION
OVER CNTRL KS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS
LARGELY IN THE 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. SCATTERED
SURFACE-BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE ERN CO SURFACE LOW AND WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER NERN CO AS HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE CNTRL ROCKIES TROUGH.

THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A VERTICALLY VEERING
WIND PROFILE WITH 30-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...SOME
HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES INTO THIS EVENING.

...NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY
HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO
FOSTER A BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS BY AFTERNOON. WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHEN COUPLED WITH A STEADILY STRENGTHENING MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELD...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

...OH VALLEY TO LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE OWING TO THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY SERVE AS
FOCI FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO
STRONG AFTERNOON INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1500-3000+ J PER KG/ AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271941
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-272215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1628
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL PA ENEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271941Z - 272215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DMGG WIND GUSTS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...BENEATH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND WELL
DOWNSTREAM OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER
PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS...INSOLATION IS SUPPORTING A CORRIDOR OF
7-8-C/KM SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING OVER THE WRN FRINGES OF THIS CORRIDOR AND ASCENT ALONG A
DIFFUSE/ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE
SUPPORTED RECENT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM CNTRL PA TO SERN NY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AS VIS IMAGERY INDICATES PATCHY CU
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR OF STEEPER LAPSE
RATES. DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH DCAPE REACHING AROUND 800-1000 J/KG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...SPORADIC DMGG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY 15-25 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA
VWPS...AND WITHOUT STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   40247817 40907761 41677586 42627249 42647099 41957118
            40897382 39967691 40247817





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271941
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-272215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1628
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL PA ENEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271941Z - 272215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DMGG WIND GUSTS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...BENEATH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND WELL
DOWNSTREAM OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER
PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS...INSOLATION IS SUPPORTING A CORRIDOR OF
7-8-C/KM SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING OVER THE WRN FRINGES OF THIS CORRIDOR AND ASCENT ALONG A
DIFFUSE/ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE
SUPPORTED RECENT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM CNTRL PA TO SERN NY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AS VIS IMAGERY INDICATES PATCHY CU
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR OF STEEPER LAPSE
RATES. DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH DCAPE REACHING AROUND 800-1000 J/KG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...SPORADIC DMGG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY 15-25 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA
VWPS...AND WITHOUT STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   40247817 40907761 41677586 42627249 42647099 41957118
            40897382 39967691 40247817





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271941
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-272215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1628
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL PA ENEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271941Z - 272215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DMGG WIND GUSTS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...BENEATH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND WELL
DOWNSTREAM OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER
PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS...INSOLATION IS SUPPORTING A CORRIDOR OF
7-8-C/KM SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING OVER THE WRN FRINGES OF THIS CORRIDOR AND ASCENT ALONG A
DIFFUSE/ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE
SUPPORTED RECENT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM CNTRL PA TO SERN NY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AS VIS IMAGERY INDICATES PATCHY CU
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR OF STEEPER LAPSE
RATES. DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH DCAPE REACHING AROUND 800-1000 J/KG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...SPORADIC DMGG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY 15-25 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA
VWPS...AND WITHOUT STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   40247817 40907761 41677586 42627249 42647099 41957118
            40897382 39967691 40247817






000
ACUS11 KWNS 271938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271937
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-272130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1627
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO TO WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST
KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271937Z - 272130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INITIAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL...AND SUBSEQUENTLY
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/PERHAPS A TORNADO...SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE A WATCH
ISSUANCE DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT/CERTAIN...DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR A POSSIBLE
WATCH.

DISCUSSION...WITH AN UPPER LOW STEADILY SPREADING EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A
GRADUALLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW /1013 MB/ CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CO...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEB AND NORTHWEST/CENTRAL KS.
WHILE CLOUD COVER IS RELATIVELY THICK IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...STRONGER STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL KS AS OF 1915Z. ISOLATED
BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND OTHER DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. IN THIS CORRIDOR...MODERATE BUOYANCY COUPLED WITH
WIND PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST SPEEDS/AMPLE
LOW-TO-MID-TROPOSPHERIC VEERING COULD SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL.

MEANWHILE...FARTHER WEST...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO...INITIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT RANGE
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/DESTABILIZE. THIS SCENARIO
WILL BE AIDED BY A MODESTLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME
AND INCREASING INFLUENCES OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW...INCLUDING
DPVA AND AN ADVECTING PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ATTENDANT TO AN UPPER DRY SLOT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41400209 39759940 38369942 38880183 38960293 38610434
            39660516 41020417 41400209





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271937
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-272130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1627
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO TO WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST
KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271937Z - 272130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INITIAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL...AND SUBSEQUENTLY
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/PERHAPS A TORNADO...SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE A WATCH
ISSUANCE DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT/CERTAIN...DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR A POSSIBLE
WATCH.

DISCUSSION...WITH AN UPPER LOW STEADILY SPREADING EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A
GRADUALLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW /1013 MB/ CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CO...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEB AND NORTHWEST/CENTRAL KS.
WHILE CLOUD COVER IS RELATIVELY THICK IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...STRONGER STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL KS AS OF 1915Z. ISOLATED
BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND OTHER DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. IN THIS CORRIDOR...MODERATE BUOYANCY COUPLED WITH
WIND PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST SPEEDS/AMPLE
LOW-TO-MID-TROPOSPHERIC VEERING COULD SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL.

MEANWHILE...FARTHER WEST...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO...INITIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT RANGE
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/DESTABILIZE. THIS SCENARIO
WILL BE AIDED BY A MODESTLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME
AND INCREASING INFLUENCES OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW...INCLUDING
DPVA AND AN ADVECTING PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ATTENDANT TO AN UPPER DRY SLOT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41400209 39759940 38369942 38880183 38960293 38610434
            39660516 41020417 41400209





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271937
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-272130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1627
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO TO WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST
KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271937Z - 272130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INITIAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL...AND SUBSEQUENTLY
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/PERHAPS A TORNADO...SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE A WATCH
ISSUANCE DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT/CERTAIN...DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR A POSSIBLE
WATCH.

DISCUSSION...WITH AN UPPER LOW STEADILY SPREADING EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES...EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A
GRADUALLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW /1013 MB/ CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CO...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEB AND NORTHWEST/CENTRAL KS.
WHILE CLOUD COVER IS RELATIVELY THICK IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...STRONGER STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL KS AS OF 1915Z. ISOLATED
BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND OTHER DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. IN THIS CORRIDOR...MODERATE BUOYANCY COUPLED WITH
WIND PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST SPEEDS/AMPLE
LOW-TO-MID-TROPOSPHERIC VEERING COULD SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL.

MEANWHILE...FARTHER WEST...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO...INITIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT RANGE
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/DESTABILIZE. THIS SCENARIO
WILL BE AIDED BY A MODESTLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME
AND INCREASING INFLUENCES OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW...INCLUDING
DPVA AND AN ADVECTING PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ATTENDANT TO AN UPPER DRY SLOT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41400209 39759940 38369942 38880183 38960293 38610434
            39660516 41020417 41400209






000
ACUS11 KWNS 271906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271905
OKZ000-TXZ000-272130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1626
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271905Z - 272130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR WIND
GUSTS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...WITHIN A MOIST AND UNCAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A STEEP SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATE PLUME EXTENDING FROM THE TX
S PLAINS TO CNTRL OK. THE OVERLAP OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES IN
THIS LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 60S IS YIELDING
1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE PER MODIFICATIONS TO 12Z OUN/AMA RAOBS.
WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY A STREAM OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
EMANATING FROM THE SW...WHICH WILL ENHANCE SHELTERING OF INCIPIENT
UPDRAFTS. FURTHERMORE...CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING WILL BOLSTER
BAROCLINICITY ALONG EDGES OF PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH BUOYANCY...TO SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. HOWEVER...VWPS SUGGEST GENERALLY AOB 20 KT OF
FLOW IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE...WHICH WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...WITH A PRIMARILY PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE
ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE SVR RISK.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33850088 33780166 34370174 35500111 36699942 36389877
            35659897 34789958 33850088





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271905
OKZ000-TXZ000-272130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1626
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271905Z - 272130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR WIND
GUSTS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...WITHIN A MOIST AND UNCAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A STEEP SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATE PLUME EXTENDING FROM THE TX
S PLAINS TO CNTRL OK. THE OVERLAP OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES IN
THIS LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 60S IS YIELDING
1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE PER MODIFICATIONS TO 12Z OUN/AMA RAOBS.
WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY A STREAM OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
EMANATING FROM THE SW...WHICH WILL ENHANCE SHELTERING OF INCIPIENT
UPDRAFTS. FURTHERMORE...CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING WILL BOLSTER
BAROCLINICITY ALONG EDGES OF PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH BUOYANCY...TO SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. HOWEVER...VWPS SUGGEST GENERALLY AOB 20 KT OF
FLOW IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE...WHICH WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...WITH A PRIMARILY PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE
ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE SVR RISK.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33850088 33780166 34370174 35500111 36699942 36389877
            35659897 34789958 33850088





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271905
OKZ000-TXZ000-272130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1626
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271905Z - 272130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR WIND
GUSTS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...WITHIN A MOIST AND UNCAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A STEEP SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATE PLUME EXTENDING FROM THE TX
S PLAINS TO CNTRL OK. THE OVERLAP OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES IN
THIS LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 60S IS YIELDING
1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE PER MODIFICATIONS TO 12Z OUN/AMA RAOBS.
WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY A STREAM OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
EMANATING FROM THE SW...WHICH WILL ENHANCE SHELTERING OF INCIPIENT
UPDRAFTS. FURTHERMORE...CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING WILL BOLSTER
BAROCLINICITY ALONG EDGES OF PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH BUOYANCY...TO SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. HOWEVER...VWPS SUGGEST GENERALLY AOB 20 KT OF
FLOW IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE...WHICH WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...WITH A PRIMARILY PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE
ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE SVR RISK.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33850088 33780166 34370174 35500111 36699942 36389877
            35659897 34789958 33850088






000
ACUS11 KWNS 271810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271809
ILZ000-MOZ000-272045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1625
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MO/IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271809Z - 272045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR WINDS/HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM
W-CNTRL MO EWD TO NEAR STL TO S-CNTRL INDIANA. DIURNAL HEATING HAS
LED TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FRONTAL ASCENT...OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS OVER THE OZARKS TO THE S OF
THE FRONT...AND DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS
ON THE SRN FRINGES OF DEBRIS/MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS N OF THE
FRONT...WILL ALL CONTINUE TO YIELD AN UPTICK IN THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS AFFIRM THIS NOTION...AS INHIBITION IS LACKING WITH
MODIFICATIONS TO 12Z ILX/SGF RAOBS SUGGESTING 1500-3000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. SUCH BUOYANCY MAY SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WITH
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GENERALLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR PER AREA VWPS --
AOB 20 KT IN THE 0-6-KM LAYER -- WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM EVOLVING.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   38099435 39869229 40298909 39518784 38658816 37598972
            36809163 36839393 38099435





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271809
ILZ000-MOZ000-272045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1625
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MO/IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271809Z - 272045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR WINDS/HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM
W-CNTRL MO EWD TO NEAR STL TO S-CNTRL INDIANA. DIURNAL HEATING HAS
LED TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FRONTAL ASCENT...OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS OVER THE OZARKS TO THE S OF
THE FRONT...AND DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS
ON THE SRN FRINGES OF DEBRIS/MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS N OF THE
FRONT...WILL ALL CONTINUE TO YIELD AN UPTICK IN THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS AFFIRM THIS NOTION...AS INHIBITION IS LACKING WITH
MODIFICATIONS TO 12Z ILX/SGF RAOBS SUGGESTING 1500-3000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. SUCH BUOYANCY MAY SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WITH
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GENERALLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR PER AREA VWPS --
AOB 20 KT IN THE 0-6-KM LAYER -- WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM EVOLVING.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   38099435 39869229 40298909 39518784 38658816 37598972
            36809163 36839393 38099435





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271809
ILZ000-MOZ000-272045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1625
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MO/IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271809Z - 272045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR WINDS/HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM
W-CNTRL MO EWD TO NEAR STL TO S-CNTRL INDIANA. DIURNAL HEATING HAS
LED TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FRONTAL ASCENT...OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS OVER THE OZARKS TO THE S OF
THE FRONT...AND DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS
ON THE SRN FRINGES OF DEBRIS/MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS N OF THE
FRONT...WILL ALL CONTINUE TO YIELD AN UPTICK IN THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RECENT RADAR
TRENDS AFFIRM THIS NOTION...AS INHIBITION IS LACKING WITH
MODIFICATIONS TO 12Z ILX/SGF RAOBS SUGGESTING 1500-3000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. SUCH BUOYANCY MAY SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WITH
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...GENERALLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR PER AREA VWPS --
AOB 20 KT IN THE 0-6-KM LAYER -- WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM EVOLVING.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   38099435 39869229 40298909 39518784 38658816 37598972
            36809163 36839393 38099435






000
ACUS02 KWNS 271626
SWODY2
SPC AC 271625

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES THURSDAY...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK
EVIDENT FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EWD OVER THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. UPPER
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...BUT
AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LOW NEAR THE EASTERN NEB/SD
BORDER WILL LIFT E/NE TOWARD SRN MN BY 12Z FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...MID-MO VALLEY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY IN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
U.S...WHERE A MOIST AIRMASS /PW AROUND 1.50+ IN/ WILL BE IN PLACE
BENEATH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL LIMIT HEATING...BUT
POCKETS OF MODEST INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 1500 J PER KG MLCAPE/
SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO WEAK MIDLEVEL FLOW AND
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT WHERE BETTER HEATING CAN OCCUR
AND POTENTIALLY NEAR ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR CONVECTION.
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION MAY BE
ALONG THE SFC COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL KS SWWD INTO THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS OF W TX ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE. HERE...GREATER
SFC HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING TO STRONGER INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER FURTHER SOUTH INTO WRN
OK/TX. AS SUCH ONLY ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GIVEN LIMITED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY AND
ISOLATED COVERAGE FURTHER SW INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...ONLY LOW-END
SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME.

..LEITMAN.. 08/27/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 271626
SWODY2
SPC AC 271625

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES THURSDAY...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK
EVIDENT FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MIGRATE EWD OVER THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. UPPER
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...BUT
AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE SFC...A WEAK LOW NEAR THE EASTERN NEB/SD
BORDER WILL LIFT E/NE TOWARD SRN MN BY 12Z FRIDAY. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...MID-MO VALLEY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY IN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
U.S...WHERE A MOIST AIRMASS /PW AROUND 1.50+ IN/ WILL BE IN PLACE
BENEATH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL LIMIT HEATING...BUT
POCKETS OF MODEST INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 1500 J PER KG MLCAPE/
SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO WEAK MIDLEVEL FLOW AND
THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT WHERE BETTER HEATING CAN OCCUR
AND POTENTIALLY NEAR ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR CONVECTION.
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION MAY BE
ALONG THE SFC COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL KS SWWD INTO THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS OF W TX ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE. HERE...GREATER
SFC HEATING WILL BE POSSIBLE LEADING TO STRONGER INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER FURTHER SOUTH INTO WRN
OK/TX. AS SUCH ONLY ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GIVEN LIMITED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY AND
ISOLATED COVERAGE FURTHER SW INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...ONLY LOW-END
SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME.

..LEITMAN.. 08/27/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 271619
SWODY1
SPC AC 271617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL...DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

...SYNOPSIS...

A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EDGES INTO
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROGRESS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE BASE
OF A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ERN CANADA.

AT THE SURFACE...A LEE CYCLONE WILL PERSIST OVER ERN CO TODAY BEFORE
DEVELOPING INTO WRN KS OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY...WHILE THE ERN PORTION OF
THIS BOUNDARY SETTLES SEWD THROUGH THE NERN U.S. AS A COLD FRONT.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION
OVER CNTRL KS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS
LARGELY IN THE 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. SCATTERED
SURFACE-BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE ERN CO SURFACE LOW AND WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER NERN CO AS HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE CNTRL ROCKIES TROUGH.

THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A VERTICALLY VEERING
WIND PROFILE WITH 30-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...SOME
HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES INTO THIS EVENING.

...NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY
HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO
FOSTER A BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS BY AFTERNOON. WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHEN COUPLED WITH A STEADILY STRENGTHENING MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELD...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

...OH VALLEY TO LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE OWING TO THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY SERVE AS
FOCI FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO
STRONG AFTERNOON INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1500-3000+ J PER KG/ AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

..MEAD/COHEN.. 08/27/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 271619
SWODY1
SPC AC 271617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL...DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

...SYNOPSIS...

A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EDGES INTO
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROGRESS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE BASE
OF A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ERN CANADA.

AT THE SURFACE...A LEE CYCLONE WILL PERSIST OVER ERN CO TODAY BEFORE
DEVELOPING INTO WRN KS OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY...WHILE THE ERN PORTION OF
THIS BOUNDARY SETTLES SEWD THROUGH THE NERN U.S. AS A COLD FRONT.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION
OVER CNTRL KS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS
LARGELY IN THE 60S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. SCATTERED
SURFACE-BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE ERN CO SURFACE LOW AND WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED UPSLOPE
FLOW OVER NERN CO AS HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE CNTRL ROCKIES TROUGH.

THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A VERTICALLY VEERING
WIND PROFILE WITH 30-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...SOME
HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES INTO THIS EVENING.

...NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY
HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO
FOSTER A BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS BY AFTERNOON. WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHEN COUPLED WITH A STEADILY STRENGTHENING MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELD...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

...OH VALLEY TO LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE OWING TO THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY SERVE AS
FOCI FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO
STRONG AFTERNOON INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1500-3000+ J PER KG/ AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.

..MEAD/COHEN.. 08/27/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 271255
SWODY1
SPC AC 271252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO INTO THE CNTRL
PLNS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL ALSO MAY OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
MISSOURI EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU. UT
CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE E INTO NW CO BY THIS EVE AND INTO NE CO
EARLY THU AS NRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS MOVES MORE
RAPIDLY E TO NEW BRUNSWICK. RIDGE WILL REMAIN STNRY FROM E TX TO THE
LWR OH VLY.

AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VLY/LWR GRT LKS
SHOULD ACCELERATE SEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY/TNGT
AS GRT LKS TROUGH CONTINUES EWD. THE WRN PART OF THE SAME BOUNDARY
SHOULD ADVANCE NWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS...WHILE THE
MIDDLE PORTION BECOMES STNRY OVER THE LWR OH VLY.

...ERN CO INTO CNTRL PLNS LATER TODAY/TNGT...
TSTM CLUSTERS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE
CNTRL HIGH PLNS SHOULD CONTINUE MAINLY ENE ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/NRN
KS. CLEARING IN WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AND...LATER IN THE
DAY...APPROACH OF UT/CO UPR SYSTEM...SHOULD FOSTER A NEW ROUND OF
STORMS INVOF LEE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT OVER ERN CO/WRN KS/SRN NEB.
STORMS ALSO SHOULD FORM ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE.

COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY/ASCENT WITH
STRENGTHENING/VERTICALLY-VEERING WIND PROFILES SHOULD YIELD A FEW
SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL/WIND. A COUPLE TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR
INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION IN NE CO AND IN NRN KS/SRN
NEB...WHERE LOW-LVL WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED NEAR FRONT.
STORM MODE SHOULD...HOWEVER...FAIRLY QUICKLY BECOME FAIRLY MESSY AS
CONTINUED EWD ADVANCE OF UPR LOW PROMOTES ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER NE CO. THE RESULTING CLUSTERS SHOULD
MOVE/DEVELOP ENE ACROSS NRN KS AND NEB THROUGH THU MORNING ...WITH A
DIMINISHING RISK FOR SVR WIND/HAIL.

...MO EWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY THIS AFTN/EVE...
A BAND OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST INVOF FRONT/CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ERN KS AND MO EWD INTO THE OH VLY TODAY.
ASCENT AND FLOW ALOFT WILL...HOWEVER...REMAIN WEAK GIVEN PROXIMITY
OF UPR RIDGE. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG SFC HEATING...FAIRLY RICH
MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.75 INCHES/...AND LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG
FRONT-BOUNDARY SEGMENTS SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD FOR A FEW PULSE
STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND/OR SVR HAIL.

...NERN STATES THIS AFTN/EVE...
COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD SERVE TO FOCUS LOW-LVL
UPLIFT AHEAD OF GRT LKS UPR SYSTEM OVER PARTS OF PA...NY...AND SRN
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN AND EVE. SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPR
SYSTEM MAY SOMEWHAT AMPLIFY LATER TODAY/TNGT AS IT PARTLY PHASES
WITH JET STREAK NOW ENTERING WRN ONT.

MOISTURE...BY AUGUST STANDARDS...WILL BE RELATIVELY MODEST...WITH PW
AROUND 1.50 INCHES. IN ADDITION...MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK. BUT SFC HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BOOST MUCAPE TO
1000-1500 J/KG IN A NARROW ZONE AHEAD OF FRONT. COUPLED WITH 20-25
KT WNWLY MID-LVL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT...SETUP
COULD YIELD A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG GUSTS AND SMALL
HAIL...ESPECIALLY IN WRN/CNTRL PA. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET.

..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 08/27/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 271255
SWODY1
SPC AC 271252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO INTO THE CNTRL
PLNS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL ALSO MAY OCCUR OVER MUCH OF
MISSOURI EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU. UT
CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE E INTO NW CO BY THIS EVE AND INTO NE CO
EARLY THU AS NRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS MOVES MORE
RAPIDLY E TO NEW BRUNSWICK. RIDGE WILL REMAIN STNRY FROM E TX TO THE
LWR OH VLY.

AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VLY/LWR GRT LKS
SHOULD ACCELERATE SEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY/TNGT
AS GRT LKS TROUGH CONTINUES EWD. THE WRN PART OF THE SAME BOUNDARY
SHOULD ADVANCE NWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS...WHILE THE
MIDDLE PORTION BECOMES STNRY OVER THE LWR OH VLY.

...ERN CO INTO CNTRL PLNS LATER TODAY/TNGT...
TSTM CLUSTERS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE
CNTRL HIGH PLNS SHOULD CONTINUE MAINLY ENE ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/NRN
KS. CLEARING IN WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AND...LATER IN THE
DAY...APPROACH OF UT/CO UPR SYSTEM...SHOULD FOSTER A NEW ROUND OF
STORMS INVOF LEE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT OVER ERN CO/WRN KS/SRN NEB.
STORMS ALSO SHOULD FORM ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE.

COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY/ASCENT WITH
STRENGTHENING/VERTICALLY-VEERING WIND PROFILES SHOULD YIELD A FEW
SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL/WIND. A COUPLE TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR
INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION IN NE CO AND IN NRN KS/SRN
NEB...WHERE LOW-LVL WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED NEAR FRONT.
STORM MODE SHOULD...HOWEVER...FAIRLY QUICKLY BECOME FAIRLY MESSY AS
CONTINUED EWD ADVANCE OF UPR LOW PROMOTES ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER NE CO. THE RESULTING CLUSTERS SHOULD
MOVE/DEVELOP ENE ACROSS NRN KS AND NEB THROUGH THU MORNING ...WITH A
DIMINISHING RISK FOR SVR WIND/HAIL.

...MO EWD INTO THE LWR OH VLY THIS AFTN/EVE...
A BAND OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST INVOF FRONT/CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ERN KS AND MO EWD INTO THE OH VLY TODAY.
ASCENT AND FLOW ALOFT WILL...HOWEVER...REMAIN WEAK GIVEN PROXIMITY
OF UPR RIDGE. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG SFC HEATING...FAIRLY RICH
MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.75 INCHES/...AND LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG
FRONT-BOUNDARY SEGMENTS SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD FOR A FEW PULSE
STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND/OR SVR HAIL.

...NERN STATES THIS AFTN/EVE...
COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD SERVE TO FOCUS LOW-LVL
UPLIFT AHEAD OF GRT LKS UPR SYSTEM OVER PARTS OF PA...NY...AND SRN
NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN AND EVE. SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPR
SYSTEM MAY SOMEWHAT AMPLIFY LATER TODAY/TNGT AS IT PARTLY PHASES
WITH JET STREAK NOW ENTERING WRN ONT.

MOISTURE...BY AUGUST STANDARDS...WILL BE RELATIVELY MODEST...WITH PW
AROUND 1.50 INCHES. IN ADDITION...MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK. BUT SFC HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO BOOST MUCAPE TO
1000-1500 J/KG IN A NARROW ZONE AHEAD OF FRONT. COUPLED WITH 20-25
KT WNWLY MID-LVL FLOW AND STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT...SETUP
COULD YIELD A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG GUSTS AND SMALL
HAIL...ESPECIALLY IN WRN/CNTRL PA. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET.

..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 08/27/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 270725
SWODY3
SPC AC 270724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY...MOST
NUMEROUS WITHIN A ZONE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  ISOLATED SEVERE RISK
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THIS AREA -- FROM ROUGHLY MISSOURI TO THE GREAT LAKES.

...SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL EWD ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL
CONTINUE DAY 3...WITH THIS FEATURE LIKELY REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT.  MEANWHILE...A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WITHIN THE
MAIN BELT OF WLYS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WRN NOAM THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COOL FRONT CROSSING THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
FORECAST TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED AS IT SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE A STRONGER FRONT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.  FARTHER W...A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE NWRN U.S. AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH.

...LOWER MI VICINITY SWWD TO ERN KS/NERN OK/NRN AR...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY FROM TX NEWD TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AS THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH MAKES GRADUAL
EWD PROGRESS.  MODEL DIFFERENCES -- PRIMARILY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
-- EMERGE THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...WITH THE NAM
DEPICTING A MUCH FASTER ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH.  IN ANY CASE...WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODEST...AND GIVEN LIKELIHOOD THAT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...SEVERE RISK IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
TEMPERED ONCE AGAIN.  THUS...WILL INTRODUCE A 5% RISK AREA FROM
LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS
PLATEAU...CORRESPONDING TO THE ANTICIPATED ZONE OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT.

..GOSS.. 08/27/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 270725
SWODY3
SPC AC 270724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY...MOST
NUMEROUS WITHIN A ZONE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  ISOLATED SEVERE RISK
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THIS AREA -- FROM ROUGHLY MISSOURI TO THE GREAT LAKES.

...SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL EWD ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL
CONTINUE DAY 3...WITH THIS FEATURE LIKELY REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT.  MEANWHILE...A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WITHIN THE
MAIN BELT OF WLYS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WRN NOAM THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COOL FRONT CROSSING THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
FORECAST TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED AS IT SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE
DAY...WHILE A STRONGER FRONT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.  FARTHER W...A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE NWRN U.S. AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH.

...LOWER MI VICINITY SWWD TO ERN KS/NERN OK/NRN AR...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY FROM TX NEWD TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AS THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH MAKES GRADUAL
EWD PROGRESS.  MODEL DIFFERENCES -- PRIMARILY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
-- EMERGE THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...WITH THE NAM
DEPICTING A MUCH FASTER ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH.  IN ANY CASE...WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODEST...AND GIVEN LIKELIHOOD THAT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD...SEVERE RISK IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
TEMPERED ONCE AGAIN.  THUS...WILL INTRODUCE A 5% RISK AREA FROM
LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS
PLATEAU...CORRESPONDING TO THE ANTICIPATED ZONE OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT.

..GOSS.. 08/27/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 270602
SWODY2
SPC AC 270601

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES THURSDAY...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK
EVIDENT FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE THE FASTER/MORE AMPLIFIED BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO CANADA AND THE ADJACENT/FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CONUS...THE MAIN SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST WILL BE
THE WEAK TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES AND SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS.
THOUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT -- FOCUSED INVOF A COOL
FRONT SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS -- WILL SUPPORT ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH THE PERIOD.

...SRN WI/NRN IL SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE DAY
2 PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. -- PARTICULARLY INVOF
THE SERN SD/SRN MN/ERN NEB/IA VICINITY WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  WITH TIME...THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SPREAD ENEWD AND WEAKEN...FOLLOWED BY NEW/AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- BOTH ACROSS ERN CO NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...AS WELL AS FROM IA SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE VICINITY INVOF
THE WEAK COOL FRONT ADVANCING SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH A DESTABILIZING
AIRMASS.

SEVERE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY LIMITED IN MOST AREAS...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW EXPECTED /20 TO 30 KT SWLY FLOW AT H5 ATOP MODEST LOW-LEVEL
SLYS/.  WHILE AN AREA OR TWO OF SOMEWHAT GREATER RISK WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT SUCH AREAS MAY BE TIED TO BOTH SUBTLE
RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW FIELD EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS...AS WELL AS BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A BROAD/LOW-PROBABILITY RISK AREA
ATTM...WITH ANY UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN SOME PORTION OF THIS LEFT
FOR LATER FORECASTS WHEN DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

..GOSS.. 08/27/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 270602
SWODY2
SPC AC 270601

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES THURSDAY...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK
EVIDENT FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE THE FASTER/MORE AMPLIFIED BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO CANADA AND THE ADJACENT/FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CONUS...THE MAIN SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST WILL BE
THE WEAK TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES AND SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS.
THOUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT -- FOCUSED INVOF A COOL
FRONT SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS -- WILL SUPPORT ONGOING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH THE PERIOD.

...SRN WI/NRN IL SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE DAY
2 PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. -- PARTICULARLY INVOF
THE SERN SD/SRN MN/ERN NEB/IA VICINITY WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  WITH TIME...THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SPREAD ENEWD AND WEAKEN...FOLLOWED BY NEW/AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- BOTH ACROSS ERN CO NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...AS WELL AS FROM IA SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE VICINITY INVOF
THE WEAK COOL FRONT ADVANCING SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH A DESTABILIZING
AIRMASS.

SEVERE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY LIMITED IN MOST AREAS...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW EXPECTED /20 TO 30 KT SWLY FLOW AT H5 ATOP MODEST LOW-LEVEL
SLYS/.  WHILE AN AREA OR TWO OF SOMEWHAT GREATER RISK WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT SUCH AREAS MAY BE TIED TO BOTH SUBTLE
RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW FIELD EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS...AS WELL AS BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THUS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A BROAD/LOW-PROBABILITY RISK AREA
ATTM...WITH ANY UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN SOME PORTION OF THIS LEFT
FOR LATER FORECASTS WHEN DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

..GOSS.. 08/27/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 270526
SWODY1
SPC AC 270525

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN KS INTO SRN NEB...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ISOLATED WIND
AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI EASTWARD ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM UT INTO CO...WITH ENHANCED
SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS...WITH A FRONT ALONG
THE NEB/KS BORDER. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FROM MO
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WILL FUEL ISOLATED DAYTIME STORMS BENEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE. TO THE E...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE NERN
STATE BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH A SFC TROUGH FOCUSING A FEW STRONG
STORMS FROM PA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.

...WRN KS INTO SRN NEB...
A LEADING DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER ERN CO AND A FRONT ACROSS SRN NEB. ALTHOUGH THE EARLY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSAGE AND MINIMAL CIN WILL LEAD TO RAIN AND STORMS EARLY
THE DAY...HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO
STRONGER ACTIVITY BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER NEWD
ACROSS WRN KS AND INTO SRN NEB. VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS. LOWER T/TD SPREADS ACROSS NRN
KS/SRN NEB AND LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE FLOW MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF
TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.

...MO EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...
AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL STRETCH FROM MO EWD ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY BUT WITH WEAK WINDS ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG HEATING AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND
AND HAIL.

...ERN PA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF
1000-1500 J/KG IN A NARROW ZONE. LOW TO MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL
NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A
FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

..JEWELL/MOSIER.. 08/27/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 270526
SWODY1
SPC AC 270525

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN KS INTO SRN NEB...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. ISOLATED WIND
AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI EASTWARD ACROSS
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM UT INTO CO...WITH ENHANCED
SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS...WITH A FRONT ALONG
THE NEB/KS BORDER. A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FROM MO
INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WILL FUEL ISOLATED DAYTIME STORMS BENEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE. TO THE E...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE NERN
STATE BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH A SFC TROUGH FOCUSING A FEW STRONG
STORMS FROM PA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.

...WRN KS INTO SRN NEB...
A LEADING DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER ERN CO AND A FRONT ACROSS SRN NEB. ALTHOUGH THE EARLY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSAGE AND MINIMAL CIN WILL LEAD TO RAIN AND STORMS EARLY
THE DAY...HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY ACTIVITY SHOULD LEAD TO
STRONGER ACTIVITY BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER NEWD
ACROSS WRN KS AND INTO SRN NEB. VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS. LOWER T/TD SPREADS ACROSS NRN
KS/SRN NEB AND LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE FLOW MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF
TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.

...MO EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...
AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL STRETCH FROM MO EWD ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY BUT WITH WEAK WINDS ALOFT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG HEATING AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND
AND HAIL.

...ERN PA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AS A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
STRONG HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF
1000-1500 J/KG IN A NARROW ZONE. LOW TO MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL
NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR A
FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

..JEWELL/MOSIER.. 08/27/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 270036
SWODY1
SPC AC 270034

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN
KANSAS ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH AND EASTERN NEVADA.

...ERN KS INTO IL...
ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLS PERSIST THIS EVENING WITHIN AN AREA
OF STRONG INSTABILITY FROM ERN KS ACROSS MO AND INTO IL. THESE
STORMS ARE PROPAGATING ON THEIR OWN ACCORD WITH NO LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT. THUS...A WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY WITH TIME AS
THE AIR MASS SLOWLY STABILIZES. UNTIL THEN...LOCALLY DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...NWRN AZ INTO SWRN UT AND FAR SERN NV...
SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SWLY UPSLOPE. THE 00Z VEF
SOUNDING WAS QUITE DRY BUT LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS NWD
ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY INTO UT AND FAR ERN NV. ENHANCED FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A FEW LONG-LIVED STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL
AND WIND THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHEN CIN INCREASES. IN
ADDITION...MIDLEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME.

..JEWELL.. 08/27/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 270036
SWODY1
SPC AC 270034

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN
KANSAS ACROSS MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH AND EASTERN NEVADA.

...ERN KS INTO IL...
ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MULTICELLS PERSIST THIS EVENING WITHIN AN AREA
OF STRONG INSTABILITY FROM ERN KS ACROSS MO AND INTO IL. THESE
STORMS ARE PROPAGATING ON THEIR OWN ACCORD WITH NO LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT. THUS...A WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY WITH TIME AS
THE AIR MASS SLOWLY STABILIZES. UNTIL THEN...LOCALLY DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...NWRN AZ INTO SWRN UT AND FAR SERN NV...
SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SWLY UPSLOPE. THE 00Z VEF
SOUNDING WAS QUITE DRY BUT LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS NWD
ALONG THE CO RIVER VALLEY INTO UT AND FAR ERN NV. ENHANCED FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A FEW LONG-LIVED STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL
AND WIND THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHEN CIN INCREASES. IN
ADDITION...MIDLEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME.

..JEWELL.. 08/27/2014





000
ACUS11 KWNS 262012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262012
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-262215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1624
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO AND SOUTHEAST WY TO
WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 262012Z - 262215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO AND SOUTHEAST WY TO WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST
KS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS /SOME STRONG/ CONTINUE TO INCREASE
PARTICULARLY OVER THE CO FOOTHILLS AS OF 20Z...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT OVER WESTERN CO/FAR SOUTHEAST WY. WHILE SOME INHIBITION IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMINGLY EXISTS IN THE SHORT-TERM ACROSS THE
PLAINS...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS /UP TO 1000-1500 J PER KG MLCAPE/.
AIDED BY WEAK LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...THE SCENARIO WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY MODEST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE/MOISTENING AND A POSSIBLY
A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMID SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA ONLY CURRENTLY INDICATIVE OF 25-35 KT OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...RELATIVELY MODEST FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR REGIME
SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION/EXTENSIVENESS OF THE SEVERE
RISK. NEVERTHELESS...SOME OF THE STRONGER MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT
MAY POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS...INITIALLY ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE VICINITY...AND
SUBSEQUENTLY INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41990508 42840369 42270226 41190145 39340182 38980377
            39760514 41990508





000
ACUS11 KWNS 262012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262012
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-262215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1624
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO AND SOUTHEAST WY TO
WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 262012Z - 262215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO AND SOUTHEAST WY TO WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST
KS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS /SOME STRONG/ CONTINUE TO INCREASE
PARTICULARLY OVER THE CO FOOTHILLS AS OF 20Z...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT OVER WESTERN CO/FAR SOUTHEAST WY. WHILE SOME INHIBITION IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMINGLY EXISTS IN THE SHORT-TERM ACROSS THE
PLAINS...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS /UP TO 1000-1500 J PER KG MLCAPE/.
AIDED BY WEAK LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...THE SCENARIO WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY MODEST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE/MOISTENING AND A POSSIBLY
A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMID SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA ONLY CURRENTLY INDICATIVE OF 25-35 KT OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...RELATIVELY MODEST FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR REGIME
SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION/EXTENSIVENESS OF THE SEVERE
RISK. NEVERTHELESS...SOME OF THE STRONGER MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT
MAY POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS...INITIALLY ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE VICINITY...AND
SUBSEQUENTLY INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41990508 42840369 42270226 41190145 39340182 38980377
            39760514 41990508






000
ACUS11 KWNS 262012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262012
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-262215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1624
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO AND SOUTHEAST WY TO
WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 262012Z - 262215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO AND SOUTHEAST WY TO WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST
KS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS /SOME STRONG/ CONTINUE TO INCREASE
PARTICULARLY OVER THE CO FOOTHILLS AS OF 20Z...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT OVER WESTERN CO/FAR SOUTHEAST WY. WHILE SOME INHIBITION IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMINGLY EXISTS IN THE SHORT-TERM ACROSS THE
PLAINS...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS /UP TO 1000-1500 J PER KG MLCAPE/.
AIDED BY WEAK LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...THE SCENARIO WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY MODEST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE/MOISTENING AND A POSSIBLY
A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMID SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA ONLY CURRENTLY INDICATIVE OF 25-35 KT OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...RELATIVELY MODEST FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR REGIME
SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION/EXTENSIVENESS OF THE SEVERE
RISK. NEVERTHELESS...SOME OF THE STRONGER MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT
MAY POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS...INITIALLY ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE VICINITY...AND
SUBSEQUENTLY INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41990508 42840369 42270226 41190145 39340182 38980377
            39760514 41990508





000
ACUS01 KWNS 261945
SWODY1
SPC AC 261944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALSO MAY
OCCUR OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SEE TEXT...MAINLY TO EXPAND THE 5
PERCENT WIND PROBS NE INTO SE MI AHEAD OF A PERSISTENT STORM CLUSTER
TRACKING ACROSS S-CNTRL MI. A FEW STRONG GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS CLUSTER AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A WARM AND MODESTLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

ADDITIONALLY...PORTIONS OF THE 5 PERCENT WIND AREA WERE REMOVED TO
THE NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ONGOING CONVECTION FROM
CENTRAL IL INTO NW INDIANA.

FOR FURTHER DETAILS REF MCD/S 1621 AND 1623.

...LOWER CO VALLEY/SRN GREAT BASIN...

NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED...SEE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AND/OR REF MCD 1622 FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO MID MO VALLEY...

NO UPDATES NEEDED...SEE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS.

..LEITMAN.. 08/26/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...

A PROGRESSIVE POLAR-BRANCH OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN LARGELY
CONFINED TO CANADA...WHILE OVER THE CONUS...A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE
WILL EDGE ESEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH A FLATTENED DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE SEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OH VALLEY WITH THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTING NWD
IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

A NNE-SSW-ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS MOVING THROUGH THE CHICAGOLAND AREA
AS OF 16Z HAS EXHIBITED SOME FORWARD-PROPAGATING CHARACTERISTICS
WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE REPORTED ALONG ITS TRACK. BY AFTERNOON...A
SUBSET OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH A DOWNSHEAR CLUSTER OF
SLOWER-MOVING TSTMS ONGOING OVER IND.

DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THESE STORM CLUSTERS WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 3500-4500 J/KG. AND
SIMILAR TO MONDAY...EXPECT STORM MOTIONS TO BECOME MORE SLY WITH
TIME AS ACTIVITY IS DRAWN INTO THE BACKSIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE OZARKS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN
REMAIN WEAK...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL FOSTER INTENSE WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS.

AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK REMAINS POSSIBLE AT 20Z SHOULD IT BECOME
MORE APPARENT THAT AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED GREATER
SEVERE THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO MID MO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION FROM THE SRN ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY. WHILE EARLY-DAY
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS...CORRIDORS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW INTENSE
STORMS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN THAT OBSERVED
ON MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT. NONETHELESS...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER NEB INTO IA AS WAA IS ENHANCED TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE FRONT BY A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LLJ. THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

...LOWER CO VALLEY/SRN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA AHEAD OF THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL INTERACT WITH A STEEP LAPSE RATE AND AT LEAST MODESTLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT TO YIELD ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY.
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 261945
SWODY1
SPC AC 261944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALSO MAY
OCCUR OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SEE TEXT...MAINLY TO EXPAND THE 5
PERCENT WIND PROBS NE INTO SE MI AHEAD OF A PERSISTENT STORM CLUSTER
TRACKING ACROSS S-CNTRL MI. A FEW STRONG GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS CLUSTER AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A WARM AND MODESTLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

ADDITIONALLY...PORTIONS OF THE 5 PERCENT WIND AREA WERE REMOVED TO
THE NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ONGOING CONVECTION FROM
CENTRAL IL INTO NW INDIANA.

FOR FURTHER DETAILS REF MCD/S 1621 AND 1623.

...LOWER CO VALLEY/SRN GREAT BASIN...

NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED...SEE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AND/OR REF MCD 1622 FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO MID MO VALLEY...

NO UPDATES NEEDED...SEE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS.

..LEITMAN.. 08/26/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...

A PROGRESSIVE POLAR-BRANCH OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN LARGELY
CONFINED TO CANADA...WHILE OVER THE CONUS...A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE
WILL EDGE ESEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH A FLATTENED DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE SEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OH VALLEY WITH THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTING NWD
IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

A NNE-SSW-ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS MOVING THROUGH THE CHICAGOLAND AREA
AS OF 16Z HAS EXHIBITED SOME FORWARD-PROPAGATING CHARACTERISTICS
WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE REPORTED ALONG ITS TRACK. BY AFTERNOON...A
SUBSET OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH A DOWNSHEAR CLUSTER OF
SLOWER-MOVING TSTMS ONGOING OVER IND.

DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THESE STORM CLUSTERS WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 3500-4500 J/KG. AND
SIMILAR TO MONDAY...EXPECT STORM MOTIONS TO BECOME MORE SLY WITH
TIME AS ACTIVITY IS DRAWN INTO THE BACKSIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE OZARKS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN
REMAIN WEAK...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL FOSTER INTENSE WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS.

AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK REMAINS POSSIBLE AT 20Z SHOULD IT BECOME
MORE APPARENT THAT AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED GREATER
SEVERE THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO MID MO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION FROM THE SRN ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY. WHILE EARLY-DAY
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS...CORRIDORS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW INTENSE
STORMS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN THAT OBSERVED
ON MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT. NONETHELESS...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER NEB INTO IA AS WAA IS ENHANCED TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE FRONT BY A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LLJ. THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

...LOWER CO VALLEY/SRN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA AHEAD OF THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL INTERACT WITH A STEEP LAPSE RATE AND AT LEAST MODESTLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT TO YIELD ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY.
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.






000
ACUS11 KWNS 261909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261909
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-262145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL IL...CNTRL INDIANA...W-CNTRL/SWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261909Z - 262145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST AN INCREASING RISK FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY
UNLIKELY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IF A
MORE ORGANIZED/LARGER-SCALE SVR RISK WERE TO EVOLVE...WW PROBABILITY
WOULD INCREASE.

DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER -- E.G.
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S SFC DEWPOINTS -- OVER THE SRN FLANK OF A LOOSELY
ORGANIZED MCS CROSSING NRN INDIANA AND SRN LOWER MI IS SUPPORTING
MLCAPE AROUND 2000-4000 J/KG. RECENT MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTIVE REGENERATION IS FAVORED SWD/SEWD INTO THIS VERY
STRONG INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY INVOF A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ARCING FROM E OF FWA TO NEAR LAF. SFC OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE A
LARGE-SCALE/STRONG COLD POOL SUPPORTING THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...WHICH
CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON FUTURE TRENDS OF THE SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL AMIDST
WEAK SYNOPTIC ASCENT. FURTHERMORE...WITH AREA VWP DATA INDICATING
AOB 15 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW/WEAK DEEP SHEAR...OVERALL CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE COULD BE LIMITED. REGARDLESS...THE HIGH
DEGREE OF BUOYANCY OFFERS SOME CONCERN FOR INTENSE
UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL.
IF AMALGAMATING COLD POOLS WERE TO BREED UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A
LARGER-SCALE...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...THE RISK FOR
GREATER-COVERAGE DMGG WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE POTENTIALLY
WARRANTING A SVR TSTM WATCH. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   39008650 39158849 39558919 40178902 40498696 40628478
            40168433 39368492 39008650





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261909
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-262145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL IL...CNTRL INDIANA...W-CNTRL/SWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261909Z - 262145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST AN INCREASING RISK FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY
UNLIKELY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IF A
MORE ORGANIZED/LARGER-SCALE SVR RISK WERE TO EVOLVE...WW PROBABILITY
WOULD INCREASE.

DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER -- E.G.
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S SFC DEWPOINTS -- OVER THE SRN FLANK OF A LOOSELY
ORGANIZED MCS CROSSING NRN INDIANA AND SRN LOWER MI IS SUPPORTING
MLCAPE AROUND 2000-4000 J/KG. RECENT MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTIVE REGENERATION IS FAVORED SWD/SEWD INTO THIS VERY
STRONG INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY INVOF A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ARCING FROM E OF FWA TO NEAR LAF. SFC OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE A
LARGE-SCALE/STRONG COLD POOL SUPPORTING THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...WHICH
CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON FUTURE TRENDS OF THE SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL AMIDST
WEAK SYNOPTIC ASCENT. FURTHERMORE...WITH AREA VWP DATA INDICATING
AOB 15 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW/WEAK DEEP SHEAR...OVERALL CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE COULD BE LIMITED. REGARDLESS...THE HIGH
DEGREE OF BUOYANCY OFFERS SOME CONCERN FOR INTENSE
UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL.
IF AMALGAMATING COLD POOLS WERE TO BREED UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A
LARGER-SCALE...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...THE RISK FOR
GREATER-COVERAGE DMGG WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE POTENTIALLY
WARRANTING A SVR TSTM WATCH. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   39008650 39158849 39558919 40178902 40498696 40628478
            40168433 39368492 39008650






000
ACUS11 KWNS 261909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261909
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-262145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL IL...CNTRL INDIANA...W-CNTRL/SWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261909Z - 262145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST AN INCREASING RISK FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY
UNLIKELY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IF A
MORE ORGANIZED/LARGER-SCALE SVR RISK WERE TO EVOLVE...WW PROBABILITY
WOULD INCREASE.

DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER -- E.G.
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S SFC DEWPOINTS -- OVER THE SRN FLANK OF A LOOSELY
ORGANIZED MCS CROSSING NRN INDIANA AND SRN LOWER MI IS SUPPORTING
MLCAPE AROUND 2000-4000 J/KG. RECENT MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT CONVECTIVE REGENERATION IS FAVORED SWD/SEWD INTO THIS VERY
STRONG INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY INVOF A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ARCING FROM E OF FWA TO NEAR LAF. SFC OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE A
LARGE-SCALE/STRONG COLD POOL SUPPORTING THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...WHICH
CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON FUTURE TRENDS OF THE SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL AMIDST
WEAK SYNOPTIC ASCENT. FURTHERMORE...WITH AREA VWP DATA INDICATING
AOB 15 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW/WEAK DEEP SHEAR...OVERALL CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE COULD BE LIMITED. REGARDLESS...THE HIGH
DEGREE OF BUOYANCY OFFERS SOME CONCERN FOR INTENSE
UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL.
IF AMALGAMATING COLD POOLS WERE TO BREED UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A
LARGER-SCALE...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...THE RISK FOR
GREATER-COVERAGE DMGG WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE POTENTIALLY
WARRANTING A SVR TSTM WATCH. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   39008650 39158849 39558919 40178902 40498696 40628478
            40168433 39368492 39008650





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261825
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-262100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN AZ...FAR SRN UT...FAR SRN NV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261825Z - 262100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY A BAND OF ASCENT EDGING EWD
ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE CROSSING SRN
NV AND ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD INTO SRN CA. AREAS OF
INSOLATION ON THE FRINGES OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THIS
BAND OF ASCENT WILL DIURNALLY BOLSTER BAROCLINICITY ALONG WITH
OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AND INSTABILITY...AMIDST INCREASING DCVA. THESE
FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AS HAS ALREADY BEEN EVIDENT IN RECENT 9-KM CAPPI DATA.
SFC OBSERVATIONS AND THE 12Z PHOENIX RAOB SUGGEST AMPLE LOWER/MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE. POLEWARD FLUXES OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE SUPPORTING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
60S -- HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. WHEN COUPLED
WITH MODESTLY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE ON THE ORDER
OF 1000-2000 J/KG EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION.

FSX AND ESX VWPS SAMPLE 30-40-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS/WSWLYS ASSOCIATED
WITH ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT RELATED TO THE TROUGH. THIS WILL YIELD
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...INCLUDING
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY TRANSIENT/BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS. MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ALONG WITH THE LACK OF EVEN STEEPER
LAPSE RATES...MAY PREVENT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM
EVOLVING. NEVERTHELESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON   33641432 34401462 36511450 37381362 37301204 36621121
            35021116 33731256 33501368 33641432





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261825
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-262100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN AZ...FAR SRN UT...FAR SRN NV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261825Z - 262100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY A BAND OF ASCENT EDGING EWD
ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE CROSSING SRN
NV AND ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD INTO SRN CA. AREAS OF
INSOLATION ON THE FRINGES OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THIS
BAND OF ASCENT WILL DIURNALLY BOLSTER BAROCLINICITY ALONG WITH
OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AND INSTABILITY...AMIDST INCREASING DCVA. THESE
FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AS HAS ALREADY BEEN EVIDENT IN RECENT 9-KM CAPPI DATA.
SFC OBSERVATIONS AND THE 12Z PHOENIX RAOB SUGGEST AMPLE LOWER/MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE. POLEWARD FLUXES OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE SUPPORTING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
60S -- HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. WHEN COUPLED
WITH MODESTLY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE ON THE ORDER
OF 1000-2000 J/KG EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION.

FSX AND ESX VWPS SAMPLE 30-40-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS/WSWLYS ASSOCIATED
WITH ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT RELATED TO THE TROUGH. THIS WILL YIELD
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...INCLUDING
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY TRANSIENT/BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS. MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ALONG WITH THE LACK OF EVEN STEEPER
LAPSE RATES...MAY PREVENT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM
EVOLVING. NEVERTHELESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON   33641432 34401462 36511450 37381362 37301204 36621121
            35021116 33731256 33501368 33641432






000
ACUS11 KWNS 261825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261825
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-262100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN AZ...FAR SRN UT...FAR SRN NV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261825Z - 262100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY A BAND OF ASCENT EDGING EWD
ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE CROSSING SRN
NV AND ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD INTO SRN CA. AREAS OF
INSOLATION ON THE FRINGES OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THIS
BAND OF ASCENT WILL DIURNALLY BOLSTER BAROCLINICITY ALONG WITH
OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AND INSTABILITY...AMIDST INCREASING DCVA. THESE
FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION INTO THE
AFTERNOON...AS HAS ALREADY BEEN EVIDENT IN RECENT 9-KM CAPPI DATA.
SFC OBSERVATIONS AND THE 12Z PHOENIX RAOB SUGGEST AMPLE LOWER/MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE. POLEWARD FLUXES OF MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE SUPPORTING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
60S -- HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. WHEN COUPLED
WITH MODESTLY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE ON THE ORDER
OF 1000-2000 J/KG EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION.

FSX AND ESX VWPS SAMPLE 30-40-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS/WSWLYS ASSOCIATED
WITH ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT RELATED TO THE TROUGH. THIS WILL YIELD
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...INCLUDING
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY TRANSIENT/BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS. MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ALONG WITH THE LACK OF EVEN STEEPER
LAPSE RATES...MAY PREVENT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM
EVOLVING. NEVERTHELESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON   33641432 34401462 36511450 37381362 37301204 36621121
            35021116 33731256 33501368 33641432





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261749
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-262015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO...SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261749Z - 262015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE
IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE LONGER-LIVED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS BECOMING LOOSELY ORGANIZED INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE FROM
SWRN LOWER MI TO E-CNTRL IL. THIS IS OCCURRING IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT. VWPS ACROSS THE
REGION SAMPLE ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW -- E.G. 15-25 KT FROM 4 TO
6 KM AGL...STRONGEST IN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY OWING TO DIURNAL
HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70F -- YIELDING MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE ONGOING STORMS
EWD...AIDED BY 15-20 KT OF 1-3-KM-AGL FLOW FAVORING EWD SPREAD OF
COLD POOLS. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER DEEP SHEAR...A MORE
ORGANIZED...FASTER-MOVING SYSTEM WITH A GREATER-COVERAGE SVR-TSTM
RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   40378738 41898600 43378495 43368347 42798307 41618378
            40478539 40378738





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261749
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-262015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO...SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261749Z - 262015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE
IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE LONGER-LIVED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS BECOMING LOOSELY ORGANIZED INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE FROM
SWRN LOWER MI TO E-CNTRL IL. THIS IS OCCURRING IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT. VWPS ACROSS THE
REGION SAMPLE ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW -- E.G. 15-25 KT FROM 4 TO
6 KM AGL...STRONGEST IN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY OWING TO DIURNAL
HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70F -- YIELDING MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE ONGOING STORMS
EWD...AIDED BY 15-20 KT OF 1-3-KM-AGL FLOW FAVORING EWD SPREAD OF
COLD POOLS. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER DEEP SHEAR...A MORE
ORGANIZED...FASTER-MOVING SYSTEM WITH A GREATER-COVERAGE SVR-TSTM
RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   40378738 41898600 43378495 43368347 42798307 41618378
            40478539 40378738





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261749
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-262015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO...SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261749Z - 262015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE
IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE LONGER-LIVED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS BECOMING LOOSELY ORGANIZED INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE FROM
SWRN LOWER MI TO E-CNTRL IL. THIS IS OCCURRING IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT. VWPS ACROSS THE
REGION SAMPLE ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW -- E.G. 15-25 KT FROM 4 TO
6 KM AGL...STRONGEST IN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY OWING TO DIURNAL
HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70F -- YIELDING MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE ONGOING STORMS
EWD...AIDED BY 15-20 KT OF 1-3-KM-AGL FLOW FAVORING EWD SPREAD OF
COLD POOLS. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER DEEP SHEAR...A MORE
ORGANIZED...FASTER-MOVING SYSTEM WITH A GREATER-COVERAGE SVR-TSTM
RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON   40378738 41898600 43378495 43368347 42798307 41618378
            40478539 40378738






000
ACUS02 KWNS 261705
SWODY2
SPC AC 261704

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW
STORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
LIKELY POSING AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.

...SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SHIFT
EWD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONGER DEEP LAYER
WLY FLOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES EWD ACROSS SE CANADA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.

AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM A LOW NEAR MAINE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND INTO THE LOWER OH AND MID-MS
VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO
THE WEST WILL AID IN LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...AND A W-E ORIENTED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD FROM NRN KS
INTO NEB/SRN SD OVERNIGHT.

...ERN CO INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH COULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED AND
HOW MUCH CLOUD DEBRIS RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY.
BUT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 SOUTH
OF THE NORTHWARD RETREATING WARM FRONT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S...THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON
/MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG/. AS WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
EJECT ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE /GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KT/...BUT
ADEQUATE FOR SOME SEMI-ORGANIZED STRUCTURES. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE MODEST...APPROACHING 7 DEG C PER KM...AND SOME SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. ADDITIONALLY...PW VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHERE STRONGER HEATING OCCURS
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AS
THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT NEWD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN STRONG WAA AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT OVER NEB. WHILE SOME
MARGINALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...HEAVY
RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

...MID-MS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE NEW ENGLAND COLD FRONT WILL SAG SWD
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FOCUSED UPPER SUPPORT...THIS BOUNDARY...AND ANY OUTFLOWS LYING
AROUND FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION...WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. STRONG SFC HEATING TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S WILL LEAD TO STRONG INSTABILITY...BUT STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
BE LIMITED BY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WEAK 0-6 KM SHEAR /LESS THAN
25 KT/ WILL MAINLY RESULT IN PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION...BUT PW VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
WET DOWNBURSTS.

..LEITMAN.. 08/26/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 261705
SWODY2
SPC AC 261704

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW
STORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
LIKELY POSING AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.

...SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SHIFT
EWD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING. STRONGER DEEP LAYER
WLY FLOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES EWD ACROSS SE CANADA AND THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S.

AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM A LOW NEAR MAINE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND INTO THE LOWER OH AND MID-MS
VALLEYS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO
THE WEST WILL AID IN LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...AND A W-E ORIENTED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD FROM NRN KS
INTO NEB/SRN SD OVERNIGHT.

...ERN CO INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD...WHICH COULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON WHERE EXACTLY THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED AND
HOW MUCH CLOUD DEBRIS RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY.
BUT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 SOUTH
OF THE NORTHWARD RETREATING WARM FRONT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S...THIS WILL RESULT IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON
/MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG/. AS WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
EJECT ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE /GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KT/...BUT
ADEQUATE FOR SOME SEMI-ORGANIZED STRUCTURES. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE MODEST...APPROACHING 7 DEG C PER KM...AND SOME SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. ADDITIONALLY...PW VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHERE STRONGER HEATING OCCURS
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AS
THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT NEWD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN STRONG WAA AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT OVER NEB. WHILE SOME
MARGINALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...HEAVY
RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

...MID-MS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE NEW ENGLAND COLD FRONT WILL SAG SWD
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FOCUSED UPPER SUPPORT...THIS BOUNDARY...AND ANY OUTFLOWS LYING
AROUND FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION...WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. STRONG SFC HEATING TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S WILL LEAD TO STRONG INSTABILITY...BUT STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
BE LIMITED BY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WEAK 0-6 KM SHEAR /LESS THAN
25 KT/ WILL MAINLY RESULT IN PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION...BUT PW VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
WET DOWNBURSTS.

..LEITMAN.. 08/26/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 261629
SWODY1
SPC AC 261628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALSO MAY
OCCUR OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH.

...SYNOPSIS...

A PROGRESSIVE POLAR-BRANCH OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN LARGELY
CONFINED TO CANADA...WHILE OVER THE CONUS...A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE
WILL EDGE ESEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH A FLATTENED DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE SEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OH VALLEY WITH THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTING NWD
IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

A NNE-SSW-ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS MOVING THROUGH THE CHICAGOLAND AREA
AS OF 16Z HAS EXHIBITED SOME FORWARD-PROPAGATING CHARACTERISTICS
WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE REPORTED ALONG ITS TRACK. BY AFTERNOON...A
SUBSET OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH A DOWNSHEAR CLUSTER OF
SLOWER-MOVING TSTMS ONGOING OVER IND.

DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THESE STORM CLUSTERS WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 3500-4500 J/KG. AND
SIMILAR TO MONDAY...EXPECT STORM MOTIONS TO BECOME MORE SLY WITH
TIME AS ACTIVITY IS DRAWN INTO THE BACKSIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE OZARKS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN
REMAIN WEAK...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL FOSTER INTENSE WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS.

AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK REMAINS POSSIBLE AT 20Z SHOULD IT BECOME
MORE APPARENT THAT AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED GREATER
SEVERE THREAT WILL MATERIALIZE.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO MID MO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION FROM THE SRN ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY. WHILE EARLY-DAY
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS...CORRIDORS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW INTENSE
STORMS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN THAT OBSERVED
ON MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT. NONETHELESS...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER NEB INTO IA AS WAA IS ENHANCED TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE FRONT BY A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LLJ. THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

...LOWER CO VALLEY/SRN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA AHEAD OF THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL INTERACT WITH A STEEP LAPSE RATE AND AT LEAST MODESTLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT TO YIELD ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY.
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..MEAD/COHEN.. 08/26/2014





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261434
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261434
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-261630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0934 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN IL...NWRN INDIANA...SERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261434Z - 261630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THE REMNANTS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAT EVOLVED FROM
ERN NEB TO IA HAVE CROSSED THE MS RIVER...PRESENTLY REACHING A LINE
FROM ROCKFORD TO MOLINE. CAPPI DATA AT 9 KM INDICATE SUSTENANCE OF
ONGOING MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WHICH ARE APPROACHING A SFC BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE CHICAGO AREA INTO W-CNTRL IL. THE 12Z ILX RAOB AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IN PROXIMITY
TO AND ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY -- E.G. LOWEST-100-MB MEAN
MIXING RATIO AROUND 16 G/KG. DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
BOOST BUOYANCY...WITH MLCAPE LIKELY REACHING 1500-2500 J/KG DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ONGOING MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL APPROACH/CROSS THE BOUNDARY --
INCLUDING THE CHICAGO AREA IN THE 1545-1700Z TIME FRAME -- AND A
RISK FOR INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WILL EXIST. LOT AND MKX VWPS
SAMPLE 25-30 KT WLYS IN THE 1-4-KM LAYER...WHICH WILL BOLSTER
CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO POTENTIALLY YIELD ISOLATED DMGG
WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW/DEEP SHEAR YIELD UNCERTAINTY IN
A MORE ORGANIZED...SUSTAINED SVR RISK. NEVERTHELESS...CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   42718878 42768753 41468694 40878805 41458932 42718878





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261434
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261434
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-261630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0934 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN IL...NWRN INDIANA...SERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261434Z - 261630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THE REMNANTS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAT EVOLVED FROM
ERN NEB TO IA HAVE CROSSED THE MS RIVER...PRESENTLY REACHING A LINE
FROM ROCKFORD TO MOLINE. CAPPI DATA AT 9 KM INDICATE SUSTENANCE OF
ONGOING MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WHICH ARE APPROACHING A SFC BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE CHICAGO AREA INTO W-CNTRL IL. THE 12Z ILX RAOB AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IN PROXIMITY
TO AND ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY -- E.G. LOWEST-100-MB MEAN
MIXING RATIO AROUND 16 G/KG. DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
BOOST BUOYANCY...WITH MLCAPE LIKELY REACHING 1500-2500 J/KG DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ONGOING MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL APPROACH/CROSS THE BOUNDARY --
INCLUDING THE CHICAGO AREA IN THE 1545-1700Z TIME FRAME -- AND A
RISK FOR INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WILL EXIST. LOT AND MKX VWPS
SAMPLE 25-30 KT WLYS IN THE 1-4-KM LAYER...WHICH WILL BOLSTER
CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO POTENTIALLY YIELD ISOLATED DMGG
WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW/DEEP SHEAR YIELD UNCERTAINTY IN
A MORE ORGANIZED...SUSTAINED SVR RISK. NEVERTHELESS...CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   42718878 42768753 41468694 40878805 41458932 42718878





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261434
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261434
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-261630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0934 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN IL...NWRN INDIANA...SERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261434Z - 261630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE REGION THIS MORNING COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THE REMNANTS OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION THAT EVOLVED FROM
ERN NEB TO IA HAVE CROSSED THE MS RIVER...PRESENTLY REACHING A LINE
FROM ROCKFORD TO MOLINE. CAPPI DATA AT 9 KM INDICATE SUSTENANCE OF
ONGOING MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WHICH ARE APPROACHING A SFC BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM THE CHICAGO AREA INTO W-CNTRL IL. THE 12Z ILX RAOB AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IN PROXIMITY
TO AND ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY -- E.G. LOWEST-100-MB MEAN
MIXING RATIO AROUND 16 G/KG. DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
BOOST BUOYANCY...WITH MLCAPE LIKELY REACHING 1500-2500 J/KG DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

ONGOING MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL APPROACH/CROSS THE BOUNDARY --
INCLUDING THE CHICAGO AREA IN THE 1545-1700Z TIME FRAME -- AND A
RISK FOR INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WILL EXIST. LOT AND MKX VWPS
SAMPLE 25-30 KT WLYS IN THE 1-4-KM LAYER...WHICH WILL BOLSTER
CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO POTENTIALLY YIELD ISOLATED DMGG
WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW/DEEP SHEAR YIELD UNCERTAINTY IN
A MORE ORGANIZED...SUSTAINED SVR RISK. NEVERTHELESS...CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON   42718878 42768753 41468694 40878805 41458932 42718878






000
ACUS01 KWNS 261249
SWODY1
SPC AC 261247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALSO MAY
OCCUR FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
NV TROUGH EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT CONTINUES
SLOWLY E INTO UT THIS PERIOD...WHILE EXPANSIVE RIDGE PERSISTS FROM
THE SRN RCKYS TO THE NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS. ON THE IMMEDIATE WRN
FLANK OF THE RIDGE...AN IMPULSE NOW IN NM SHOULD TRACK
NNEWD...REACHING WRN KS/SW NEB EARLY WED. MEANWHILE...ALONG THE N
SIDE OF THE RIDGE...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK EWD FROM MT
TO SRN ONT IN THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS.

ERN PART OF COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS
YESTERDAY SHOULD CONTINUE E TO THE LWR GRT LKS/NRN APPALACHIANS
LATER TODAY/TNGT...WHILE THE TRAILING WRN PORTION REDEVELOPS NWD AS
A WARM FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PLNS.

...CNTRL HIGH PLNS AFTN INTO TNGT...
SFC HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPR IMPULSE SHOULD MAINTAIN A LEE LOW
OVER ERN CO TODAY. COMBINATION OF STRONG SFC HEATING WITH MODEST
SELY UPSLOPE FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT N OF LOW SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER
ROUND OF FRONT RANGE STORM DEVELOPMENT NWD INTO SRN WY. BOTH MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK BY HIGH PLNS
STANDARDS. BUT WITH SBCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AND WITH
SOME DEGREE OF SUPPORT PROVIDED BY UPR IMPULSE...A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY YIELD LOCALLY SVR HAIL AND WIND FROM NE CO/SE WY INTO WRN
KS/SW NEB. A SEPARATE...PERHAPS MORE EXPANSIVE...STORM AREA MAY
ERUPT TNGT/EARLY WED OVER SRN NEB AS UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES NNEWD AND
ASSOCIATED VEERING LLJ OVERSPREADS LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL.

...LWR CO VLY LATE AFTN/EVE...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PRECEDE UPR LOW TRACKING
EWD ACROSS NV. COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING AND TERRAIN UPLIFT...SETUP
SHOULD FOSTER BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STRONG...MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS FROM
SE NV EWD INTO SW UT AND NW AZ. AS MID/UPR-LVL FLOW INCREASES
IN SE PART OF TROUGH...DEEP SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW CELLS WITH SVR
HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

...MID-MS VLY INTO IND THIS AFTN/EVE...
A POCKET OF APPRECIABLE SFC BUOYANCY /AFTN SBCAPE AOA 3000 J PER KG/
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING TODAY IN MOIST AXIS ALONG AND S OF
STALLING MID-MS VLY COLD FRONT. DEEP SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL BE VERY WEAK. BUT VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT
SLOWLY-MOVING CLUSTERS WITH ISOLD...LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS OVER
CNTRL IL AND PARTS OF IND.

..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 08/26/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 261249
SWODY1
SPC AC 261247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALSO MAY
OCCUR FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
NV TROUGH EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW AS IT CONTINUES
SLOWLY E INTO UT THIS PERIOD...WHILE EXPANSIVE RIDGE PERSISTS FROM
THE SRN RCKYS TO THE NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS. ON THE IMMEDIATE WRN
FLANK OF THE RIDGE...AN IMPULSE NOW IN NM SHOULD TRACK
NNEWD...REACHING WRN KS/SW NEB EARLY WED. MEANWHILE...ALONG THE N
SIDE OF THE RIDGE...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK EWD FROM MT
TO SRN ONT IN THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS.

ERN PART OF COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS
YESTERDAY SHOULD CONTINUE E TO THE LWR GRT LKS/NRN APPALACHIANS
LATER TODAY/TNGT...WHILE THE TRAILING WRN PORTION REDEVELOPS NWD AS
A WARM FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PLNS.

...CNTRL HIGH PLNS AFTN INTO TNGT...
SFC HEATING AND APPROACH OF UPR IMPULSE SHOULD MAINTAIN A LEE LOW
OVER ERN CO TODAY. COMBINATION OF STRONG SFC HEATING WITH MODEST
SELY UPSLOPE FLOW/MOISTURE TRANSPORT N OF LOW SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER
ROUND OF FRONT RANGE STORM DEVELOPMENT NWD INTO SRN WY. BOTH MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK BY HIGH PLNS
STANDARDS. BUT WITH SBCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AND WITH
SOME DEGREE OF SUPPORT PROVIDED BY UPR IMPULSE...A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAY YIELD LOCALLY SVR HAIL AND WIND FROM NE CO/SE WY INTO WRN
KS/SW NEB. A SEPARATE...PERHAPS MORE EXPANSIVE...STORM AREA MAY
ERUPT TNGT/EARLY WED OVER SRN NEB AS UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES NNEWD AND
ASSOCIATED VEERING LLJ OVERSPREADS LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL.

...LWR CO VLY LATE AFTN/EVE...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PRECEDE UPR LOW TRACKING
EWD ACROSS NV. COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING AND TERRAIN UPLIFT...SETUP
SHOULD FOSTER BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STRONG...MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS FROM
SE NV EWD INTO SW UT AND NW AZ. AS MID/UPR-LVL FLOW INCREASES
IN SE PART OF TROUGH...DEEP SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW CELLS WITH SVR
HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

...MID-MS VLY INTO IND THIS AFTN/EVE...
A POCKET OF APPRECIABLE SFC BUOYANCY /AFTN SBCAPE AOA 3000 J PER KG/
SHOULD DEVELOP WITH SFC HEATING TODAY IN MOIST AXIS ALONG AND S OF
STALLING MID-MS VLY COLD FRONT. DEEP SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL BE VERY WEAK. BUT VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT
SLOWLY-MOVING CLUSTERS WITH ISOLD...LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS OVER
CNTRL IL AND PARTS OF IND.

..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 08/26/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 260731
SWODY3
SPC AC 260730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES THURSDAY...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK
EVIDENT FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE THE FASTER/MORE ACTIVE BELT OF WLYS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
SRN CANADA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE NRN CONUS...THE MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTIVE RISK WILL AGAIN RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AS A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ADVANCING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE SURFACE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LIKEWISE
REMAIN WEAK...WITH A COOL FRONT SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TRAILING SWWD FROM A LOW OVER THE IA VICINITY.  THIS LOW AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT WILL FOCUS A ZONE OF LOW-PROBABILITY
SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS ENEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH
SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHERE THE PRIMARY ZONE
OF WARM ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED.  MEANWHILE...AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM THE IA VICINITY WSWWD INTO
CO...AND SWWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AS THE UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES EWD PROVIDING BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED/CONTINUED WEAKNESS OF THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT
ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER SYSTEM...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  THUS...WILL HIGHLIGHT A RELATIVELY
BROAD AREA OF LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE RISK -- PRIMARILY FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS.

..GOSS.. 08/26/2014





000
ACUS03 KWNS 260731
SWODY3
SPC AC 260730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES THURSDAY...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK
EVIDENT FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE THE FASTER/MORE ACTIVE BELT OF WLYS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO
SRN CANADA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE NRN CONUS...THE MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTIVE RISK WILL AGAIN RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AS A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ADVANCING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE SURFACE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LIKEWISE
REMAIN WEAK...WITH A COOL FRONT SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TRAILING SWWD FROM A LOW OVER THE IA VICINITY.  THIS LOW AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT WILL FOCUS A ZONE OF LOW-PROBABILITY
SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS ENEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH
SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WHERE THE PRIMARY ZONE
OF WARM ADVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED.  MEANWHILE...AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM THE IA VICINITY WSWWD INTO
CO...AND SWWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AS THE UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES EWD PROVIDING BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED/CONTINUED WEAKNESS OF THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT
ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER SYSTEM...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  THUS...WILL HIGHLIGHT A RELATIVELY
BROAD AREA OF LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE RISK -- PRIMARILY FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS.

..GOSS.. 08/26/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 260600
SWODY2
SPC AC 260559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW
STORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
LIKELY POSING AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK.

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE MAIN BELT OF FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO SETTLE
GRADUALLY SWD ACROSS SRN CANADA AND INTO THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CONUS...THE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER WILL REMAIN FARTHER
S...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. DURING
THE DAY...BUT IT WILL BE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY --
LYING W-E ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- THAT WILL FOCUS THE MOST
ACTIVE/SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...ERN CO/KS/NEB AND INTO IA/NWRN MO...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. AS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND
HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS ASCENT SHOULD
SUPPORT WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...ON
THE WRN FRINGE OF A REMNANT W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE LYING ACROSS THE
AREA.  AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED -- NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE AS WELL AS EWD NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT.  CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND INTO IA...AS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT INCREASES ATOP THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

WITH THAT SAID...THE OVERALL FLOW FIELD ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST...WITH A BELT OF GENERALLY 20 TO
30 KT SWLYS AT MID LEVELS PROGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. ON THE ERN
FRINGE OF THE TROUGH.  THOUGH THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
THE EVENING WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SOME
DEGREE...THE OVERALL FLOW FIELD APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN TOO WEAK
FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE EVENT.  WHILE A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK
MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA ATTM.

..GOSS.. 08/26/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 260600
SWODY2
SPC AC 260559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW
STORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
LIKELY POSING AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK.

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE MAIN BELT OF FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO SETTLE
GRADUALLY SWD ACROSS SRN CANADA AND INTO THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CONUS...THE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WEATHER WILL REMAIN FARTHER
S...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W
TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. DURING
THE DAY...BUT IT WILL BE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY --
LYING W-E ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- THAT WILL FOCUS THE MOST
ACTIVE/SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...ERN CO/KS/NEB AND INTO IA/NWRN MO...
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. AS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND
HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS ASCENT SHOULD
SUPPORT WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...ON
THE WRN FRINGE OF A REMNANT W-E BAROCLINIC ZONE LYING ACROSS THE
AREA.  AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED -- NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE FRONT RANGE AS WELL AS EWD NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT.  CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND INTO IA...AS ISENTROPIC
ASCENT INCREASES ATOP THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
STRENGTHENING SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

WITH THAT SAID...THE OVERALL FLOW FIELD ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST...WITH A BELT OF GENERALLY 20 TO
30 KT SWLYS AT MID LEVELS PROGGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. ON THE ERN
FRINGE OF THE TROUGH.  THOUGH THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
THE EVENING WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SOME
DEGREE...THE OVERALL FLOW FIELD APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN TOO WEAK
FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE EVENT.  WHILE A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK
MAY EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA ATTM.

..GOSS.. 08/26/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 260536
SWODY1
SPC AC 260534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN ARIZONA.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SPREADING SWD ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY
WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST SUPPORTING DAYTIME STORMS. TO THE
E...AN UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER MO...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN FROM ERN CO ACROSS
NRN KS WHICH WILL AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR STORMS.

TO THE E...A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO...WITH SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS
ALONG A COLD FRONT MAINLY N OF THE U.S. BORDER.

...ERN CO...KS...SRN NEB...
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR S OF THE FRONT WITH AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
SUPPORTING DAYTIME STORMS. SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK BUT MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER CORES CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND
DURING THE DAY FROM ERN CO INTO WRN KS...THEN MOVING ACROSS NEB
DURING THE EVENING.

...SERN NV INTO NWRN AZ...
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH STRONG
HEATING FURTHER STEEPENING DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.
MEANWHILE...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY...CREATING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL FURTHER ENHANCE SHEAR
PROFILES...BECOMING MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.

..JEWELL.. 08/26/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 260536
SWODY1
SPC AC 260534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN ARIZONA.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SPREADING SWD ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY
WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST SUPPORTING DAYTIME STORMS. TO THE
E...AN UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER MO...WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN FROM ERN CO ACROSS
NRN KS WHICH WILL AGAIN BE A FOCUS FOR STORMS.

TO THE E...A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO...WITH SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS
ALONG A COLD FRONT MAINLY N OF THE U.S. BORDER.

...ERN CO...KS...SRN NEB...
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR S OF THE FRONT WITH AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
SUPPORTING DAYTIME STORMS. SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK BUT MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER CORES CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND
DURING THE DAY FROM ERN CO INTO WRN KS...THEN MOVING ACROSS NEB
DURING THE EVENING.

...SERN NV INTO NWRN AZ...
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH STRONG
HEATING FURTHER STEEPENING DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.
MEANWHILE...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY...CREATING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE STORMS. IN ADDITION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND WILL FURTHER ENHANCE SHEAR
PROFILES...BECOMING MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.

..JEWELL.. 08/26/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 260143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260143
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-260315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1619
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0843 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477...

VALID 260143Z - 260315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LINE OF TSTMS MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN CO WILL LIKELY PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING
BUT SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE LINE OF TSTMS MOVING EWD
THROUGH ERN CO REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING
MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG. AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES...CINH WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BUT RECENT TSTM ACTIVITY IN NW KS INDICATES
CINH REMAINS LOW. THIS DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH NWD
PROGRESSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TSTMS IN CNTRL KS WILL HELP
MAINTAIN THE LINE AS IT CONTINUES EWD IN FAR SWRN NEB AND NW KS.
SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

..MOSIER.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   40180513 40600443 40780182 40530103 38250106 37690291
            37790512 39290540 40180513





000
ACUS11 KWNS 260143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260143
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-260315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1619
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0843 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477...

VALID 260143Z - 260315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LINE OF TSTMS MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN CO WILL LIKELY PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING
BUT SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE LINE OF TSTMS MOVING EWD
THROUGH ERN CO REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING
MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG. AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES...CINH WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BUT RECENT TSTM ACTIVITY IN NW KS INDICATES
CINH REMAINS LOW. THIS DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH NWD
PROGRESSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TSTMS IN CNTRL KS WILL HELP
MAINTAIN THE LINE AS IT CONTINUES EWD IN FAR SWRN NEB AND NW KS.
SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

..MOSIER.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   40180513 40600443 40780182 40530103 38250106 37690291
            37790512 39290540 40180513






000
ACUS11 KWNS 260143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260143
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-260315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1619
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0843 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477...

VALID 260143Z - 260315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LINE OF TSTMS MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN CO WILL LIKELY PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING
BUT SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE LINE OF TSTMS MOVING EWD
THROUGH ERN CO REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING
MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG. AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES...CINH WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BUT RECENT TSTM ACTIVITY IN NW KS INDICATES
CINH REMAINS LOW. THIS DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH NWD
PROGRESSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TSTMS IN CNTRL KS WILL HELP
MAINTAIN THE LINE AS IT CONTINUES EWD IN FAR SWRN NEB AND NW KS.
SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

..MOSIER.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   40180513 40600443 40780182 40530103 38250106 37690291
            37790512 39290540 40180513





000
ACUS01 KWNS 260059
SWODY1
SPC AC 260058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NERN CO...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS...WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA THIS EVENING.

...ERN CO INTO KS AND NEB...
A LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NERN CO...AND AFFECT NWRN
KS AND PERHAPS SRN NEB LATER THIS EVENING AS UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN
THIS ZONE WITH STORMS AIDED BY A LOW-LEVEL JET. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT THE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL.

...ERN IL INTO IND...
CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ACROSS IL AND IND AS THEY
BECOME MORE OUTFLOW DOMINATED AND WITH A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER.
THIS TREND WILL PERSIST WITH MAINLY NON-SEVERE WIND GUSTS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1618.

..JEWELL.. 08/26/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 260059
SWODY1
SPC AC 260058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NERN CO...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO KANSAS...WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA THIS EVENING.

...ERN CO INTO KS AND NEB...
A LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NERN CO...AND AFFECT NWRN
KS AND PERHAPS SRN NEB LATER THIS EVENING AS UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS IN
THIS ZONE WITH STORMS AIDED BY A LOW-LEVEL JET. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT THE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL.

...ERN IL INTO IND...
CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ACROSS IL AND IND AS THEY
BECOME MORE OUTFLOW DOMINATED AND WITH A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER.
THIS TREND WILL PERSIST WITH MAINLY NON-SEVERE WIND GUSTS EXPECTED
THIS EVENING. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1618.

..JEWELL.. 08/26/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 260046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260045
INZ000-ILZ000-260145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1618
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...IL/INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476...

VALID 260045Z - 260145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS WANING ACROSS CNTRL IL/INDIANA.

DISCUSSION...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
EXTREME SRN PORTIONS OF WW FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HR.  SLOW-MOVING CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MIGRATING SE ACROSS ECNTRL IL.  OUTFLOW FROM
THIS ACTIVITY HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH OF WW476 AND TRAILING TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  WW WILL NOT BE
REISSUED FOR THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   42228892 40738546 39398617 40888967 42228892





000
ACUS11 KWNS 260046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260045
INZ000-ILZ000-260145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1618
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...IL/INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476...

VALID 260045Z - 260145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS WANING ACROSS CNTRL IL/INDIANA.

DISCUSSION...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
EXTREME SRN PORTIONS OF WW FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HR.  SLOW-MOVING CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MIGRATING SE ACROSS ECNTRL IL.  OUTFLOW FROM
THIS ACTIVITY HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH OF WW476 AND TRAILING TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  WW WILL NOT BE
REISSUED FOR THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   42228892 40738546 39398617 40888967 42228892






000
ACUS11 KWNS 260046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260045
INZ000-ILZ000-260145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1618
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...IL/INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476...

VALID 260045Z - 260145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS WANING ACROSS CNTRL IL/INDIANA.

DISCUSSION...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST ACROSS
EXTREME SRN PORTIONS OF WW FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HR.  SLOW-MOVING CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MIGRATING SE ACROSS ECNTRL IL.  OUTFLOW FROM
THIS ACTIVITY HAS PROGRESSED SOUTH OF WW476 AND TRAILING TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  WW WILL NOT BE
REISSUED FOR THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 08/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   42228892 40738546 39398617 40888967 42228892





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252230
INZ000-ILZ000-252330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1617
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...IL/INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476...

VALID 252230Z - 252330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION ACROSS WW476.

DISCUSSION...DISORGANIZED MCS HAS EVOLVED OVER NRN IL/INDIANA WITH
GENERAL MOVEMENT NOW SEWD AT ROUGHLY 20-25KT.  OUTFLOW HAS SURGED
ABOUT 10 MI AHEAD OF LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS WIND SHIFT.  ADDITIONALLY...WDSSII ALGORITHM
SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL IS OCCURRING WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS OVER
TIPPECANOE COUNTY INDIANA AND LIVINGSTON/MARSHALL COUNTIES IN IL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD APPROACH THE SRN PORTION OF WW AROUND 26/00Z.

..DARROW.. 08/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40888966 42238892 40738546 39428617 40888966





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252230
INZ000-ILZ000-252330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1617
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...IL/INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476...

VALID 252230Z - 252330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION ACROSS WW476.

DISCUSSION...DISORGANIZED MCS HAS EVOLVED OVER NRN IL/INDIANA WITH
GENERAL MOVEMENT NOW SEWD AT ROUGHLY 20-25KT.  OUTFLOW HAS SURGED
ABOUT 10 MI AHEAD OF LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS WIND SHIFT.  ADDITIONALLY...WDSSII ALGORITHM
SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL IS OCCURRING WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS OVER
TIPPECANOE COUNTY INDIANA AND LIVINGSTON/MARSHALL COUNTIES IN IL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD APPROACH THE SRN PORTION OF WW AROUND 26/00Z.

..DARROW.. 08/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40888966 42238892 40738546 39428617 40888966






000
ACUS11 KWNS 252230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252230
INZ000-ILZ000-252330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1617
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...IL/INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476...

VALID 252230Z - 252330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION ACROSS WW476.

DISCUSSION...DISORGANIZED MCS HAS EVOLVED OVER NRN IL/INDIANA WITH
GENERAL MOVEMENT NOW SEWD AT ROUGHLY 20-25KT.  OUTFLOW HAS SURGED
ABOUT 10 MI AHEAD OF LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS WIND SHIFT.  ADDITIONALLY...WDSSII ALGORITHM
SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL IS OCCURRING WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS OVER
TIPPECANOE COUNTY INDIANA AND LIVINGSTON/MARSHALL COUNTIES IN IL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD APPROACH THE SRN PORTION OF WW AROUND 26/00Z.

..DARROW.. 08/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40888966 42238892 40738546 39428617 40888966





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252229
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-260030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1616
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT...SWRN WY...FAR NWRN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 252229Z - 260030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS ERN UT...SWRN WY...AND FAR NWRN CO. SOME SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SVR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND A
WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...RECENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A CONTINUAL
INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. TSTM COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE UPPER LOW PERSISTS. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA
IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J
PER KG/ AND MODERATE SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30 TO 40 KT/. THIS
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED STAY
BELOW SVR THRESHOLDS AND A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED BUT
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 08/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON   41011175 42191088 42370948 41400825 38250910 38231256
            41011175






000
ACUS11 KWNS 252229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252229
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-260030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1616
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT...SWRN WY...FAR NWRN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 252229Z - 260030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS ERN UT...SWRN WY...AND FAR NWRN CO. SOME SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SVR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND A
WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...RECENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A CONTINUAL
INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. TSTM COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE UPPER LOW PERSISTS. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE AREA
IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J
PER KG/ AND MODERATE SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30 TO 40 KT/. THIS
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED STAY
BELOW SVR THRESHOLDS AND A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED BUT
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 08/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON   41011175 42191088 42370948 41400825 38250910 38231256
            41011175





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252037
COZ000-252230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1615
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 252037Z - 252230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF
THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF NORTHEAST CO THIS
AFTERNOON.  A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO WESTERN CO.  WEAK FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL CO...WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORMING.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST CO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER NORTHEAST CO REMAINS SLIGHTLY CAPPED...BUT
SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON
DUE TO CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
HELPING TO REINFORCE LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH ENHANCING EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS
THIS EVENING CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR POSSIBLE WW
ISSUANCE.

..HART/MEAD.. 08/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   39390575 40390579 40920495 40970316 40290283 38650329
            38630539 39390575





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252037
COZ000-252230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1615
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 252037Z - 252230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF
THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF NORTHEAST CO THIS
AFTERNOON.  A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO WESTERN CO.  WEAK FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL CO...WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORMING.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST CO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER NORTHEAST CO REMAINS SLIGHTLY CAPPED...BUT
SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON
DUE TO CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
HELPING TO REINFORCE LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH ENHANCING EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS
THIS EVENING CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR POSSIBLE WW
ISSUANCE.

..HART/MEAD.. 08/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   39390575 40390579 40920495 40970316 40290283 38650329
            38630539 39390575





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252037
COZ000-252230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1615
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 252037Z - 252230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF
THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF NORTHEAST CO THIS
AFTERNOON.  A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.  AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO WESTERN CO.  WEAK FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS TRACKING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL CO...WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORMING.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE STORMS WILL
MOVE/DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST CO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER NORTHEAST CO REMAINS SLIGHTLY CAPPED...BUT
SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON
DUE TO CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING.  SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
HELPING TO REINFORCE LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
WITH ENHANCING EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS
THIS EVENING CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR POSSIBLE WW
ISSUANCE.

..HART/MEAD.. 08/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   39390575 40390579 40920495 40970316 40290283 38650329
            38630539 39390575






000
ACUS01 KWNS 252000
SWODY1
SPC AC 251959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN CO...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. A
BRIEF TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.

...NRN IL INTO NW INDIANA...

PORTIONS OF NRN IL AND NW INDIANA HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT
RISK. TWO ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF UPSCALE
GROWTH/INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WAS NOTED IN SFC AND VIS SAT DATA BETWEEN THE WESTERN
COMPLEX IN NW IL NEAR SQI TO THE EASTERN COMPLEX JUST NORTH OF IKK.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK E/SE OVER NRN IL IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY.

THE AIRMASS OVER NRN IL INTO NW INDIANA IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
TO EXTREME INSTABILITY AS NOTED IN 19Z MESOANALYSIS AND A 20Z DVN
RAOB. WHILE DEEP LAYER FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK...LOW LEVEL E/SELY STORM
INFLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MAINTENANCE/CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING. STRONG...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN
1100 J/KG. MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7-7.5 DEG C PER
KM COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME HAIL IN STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. REG MCD
1614 FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWD ACROSS NRN INDIANA APPEARS
TO BE UNDERCUTTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COMPLEX...AND
MAY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THIS PORTION OF THE E/SEWD
ADVANCING LINE OF STORMS OVER PARTS OF NRN INTO NERN INDIANA.

ELSEWHERE...NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

..LEITMAN.. 08/25/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...

A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE
WHILE PROGRESSING NEWD TOWARDS JAMES BAY. FARTHER WEST...AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP EQUATORWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NW INTO CA...CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND THE STEADY
SEWD MOVEMENT OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER-AIR FEATURES...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
A WEAK PERTURBATION OVER S-CNTRL WY/N-CNTRL CO WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
ENEWD TODAY. ELSEWHERE...A VORTICITY MAXIMUM/INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE
CNTRL GULF COAST WILL ADVANCE WWD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INVOF A LEE CYCLONE.

...CO FRONT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE AUGMENTED BY THE GLANCING INFLUENCE
OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TO PROMOTE WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. THE WWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-2000
J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILE WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

...CNTRL PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

A NE-SW-ORIENTED BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS IS ONGOING AS OF MID MORNING
FROM NRN LOWER MI TO SRN WI WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING FORCED
BY A COMBINATION OF WAA ALONG A WEAKENING NOCTURNAL LLJ AND THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. TO THE SOUTH OF
THESE STORMS...THE 12Z DVN AND ILX SOUNDINGS REVEALED THE PRESENCE
OF A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 3500-4500
J/KG. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER THE CURRENT
STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE HIGH THETA-E RESERVOIR...DUE IN
PART TO THE TENDENCY OF RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PEAK OF
THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SWD-MOVING MCS ACROSS NRN INTO
CNTRL PARTS OF IL/IND. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO UNFOLD AS INDICATED...A
MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD
EVOLVE...REQUIRING A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WITH THE 20Z
ISSUANCE.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT TO THE
NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID
MO VALLEY AS WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE ENHANCED BY A NOCTURNALLY
STRENGTHENING LLJ. THE COMBINATION OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MODEST CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR AND MUCAPE OF 1500-2500+ J/KG
WILL YIELD INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SOME SEVERE HAIL.

...LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

THE 12Z LIX SOUNDING SAMPLED THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
/I.E. PW OF 2.23 IN/ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO STRONG
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ALOFT COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT ALONG AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER SCATTERED AFTERNOON
STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO WSWWD-MOVING
CLUSTERS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...NRN GREAT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EVOLVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN STORMS LATER TODAY...NAMELY ALONG FAVORED TERRAIN.
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 252000
SWODY1
SPC AC 251959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN CO...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. A
BRIEF TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.

...NRN IL INTO NW INDIANA...

PORTIONS OF NRN IL AND NW INDIANA HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT
RISK. TWO ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF UPSCALE
GROWTH/INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WAS NOTED IN SFC AND VIS SAT DATA BETWEEN THE WESTERN
COMPLEX IN NW IL NEAR SQI TO THE EASTERN COMPLEX JUST NORTH OF IKK.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK E/SE OVER NRN IL IN
THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY.

THE AIRMASS OVER NRN IL INTO NW INDIANA IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
TO EXTREME INSTABILITY AS NOTED IN 19Z MESOANALYSIS AND A 20Z DVN
RAOB. WHILE DEEP LAYER FLOW IS FAIRLY WEAK...LOW LEVEL E/SELY STORM
INFLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR MAINTENANCE/CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING. STRONG...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND DCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN
1100 J/KG. MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7-7.5 DEG C PER
KM COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME HAIL IN STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. REG MCD
1614 FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWD ACROSS NRN INDIANA APPEARS
TO BE UNDERCUTTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COMPLEX...AND
MAY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THIS PORTION OF THE E/SEWD
ADVANCING LINE OF STORMS OVER PARTS OF NRN INTO NERN INDIANA.

ELSEWHERE...NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

..LEITMAN.. 08/25/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...

A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE
WHILE PROGRESSING NEWD TOWARDS JAMES BAY. FARTHER WEST...AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP EQUATORWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NW INTO CA...CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND THE STEADY
SEWD MOVEMENT OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER-AIR FEATURES...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
A WEAK PERTURBATION OVER S-CNTRL WY/N-CNTRL CO WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
ENEWD TODAY. ELSEWHERE...A VORTICITY MAXIMUM/INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE
CNTRL GULF COAST WILL ADVANCE WWD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INVOF A LEE CYCLONE.

...CO FRONT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE AUGMENTED BY THE GLANCING INFLUENCE
OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TO PROMOTE WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. THE WWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-2000
J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILE WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

...CNTRL PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

A NE-SW-ORIENTED BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS IS ONGOING AS OF MID MORNING
FROM NRN LOWER MI TO SRN WI WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING FORCED
BY A COMBINATION OF WAA ALONG A WEAKENING NOCTURNAL LLJ AND THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. TO THE SOUTH OF
THESE STORMS...THE 12Z DVN AND ILX SOUNDINGS REVEALED THE PRESENCE
OF A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 3500-4500
J/KG. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER THE CURRENT
STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE HIGH THETA-E RESERVOIR...DUE IN
PART TO THE TENDENCY OF RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PEAK OF
THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SWD-MOVING MCS ACROSS NRN INTO
CNTRL PARTS OF IL/IND. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO UNFOLD AS INDICATED...A
MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD
EVOLVE...REQUIRING A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WITH THE 20Z
ISSUANCE.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT TO THE
NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID
MO VALLEY AS WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE ENHANCED BY A NOCTURNALLY
STRENGTHENING LLJ. THE COMBINATION OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MODEST CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR AND MUCAPE OF 1500-2500+ J/KG
WILL YIELD INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SOME SEVERE HAIL.

...LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

THE 12Z LIX SOUNDING SAMPLED THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
/I.E. PW OF 2.23 IN/ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO STRONG
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ALOFT COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT ALONG AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER SCATTERED AFTERNOON
STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO WSWWD-MOVING
CLUSTERS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...NRN GREAT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EVOLVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN STORMS LATER TODAY...NAMELY ALONG FAVORED TERRAIN.
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251810
INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-252015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1614
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN IL/NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251810Z - 252015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHERN INDIANA AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF LOWER MI. WHILE A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL MONITORED THIS AFTERNOON FOR A
POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHOWN SOME RECENT SIGNS OF
INTENSIFICATION IN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED CORRIDOR ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND THE CHICAGOLAND VICINITY. THESE STORMS ARE
FOCUSED ALONG SOUTHEASTWARD-SPREADING OUTFLOW...AS IT INTERCEPTS A
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN IL/INDIANA INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. IN THIS CORRIDOR...70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND
AMPLE INSOLATION ARE ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO AS MUCH AS 3500-4000
J/KG OF MLCAPE. LARGE-SCALE INFLUENCES ARE WEAK ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO LIMITED
/20-25 KT 0-6 KM CHICAGO WSR-88D VWP/. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION AND STORM DEVELOPMENT/MERGERS MAY LEAD TO GRADUAL
UPSCALE GROWTH/ORGANIZATION...WITH SOME DEGREE OF FORWARD
ACCELERATION/PROPAGATION AS A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE.
THIS IS A SCENARIO WELL-SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR RUNS AND THE 12Z
WRF-NSSL. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH AT
LEAST LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41458861 42148714 42388540 41028504 40448556 40308696
            40348834 41098918 41458861





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251810
INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-252015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1614
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN IL/NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251810Z - 252015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHERN INDIANA AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF LOWER MI. WHILE A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL MONITORED THIS AFTERNOON FOR A
POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHOWN SOME RECENT SIGNS OF
INTENSIFICATION IN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED CORRIDOR ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND THE CHICAGOLAND VICINITY. THESE STORMS ARE
FOCUSED ALONG SOUTHEASTWARD-SPREADING OUTFLOW...AS IT INTERCEPTS A
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN IL/INDIANA INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MI. IN THIS CORRIDOR...70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND
AMPLE INSOLATION ARE ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO AS MUCH AS 3500-4000
J/KG OF MLCAPE. LARGE-SCALE INFLUENCES ARE WEAK ASIDE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO LIMITED
/20-25 KT 0-6 KM CHICAGO WSR-88D VWP/. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION AND STORM DEVELOPMENT/MERGERS MAY LEAD TO GRADUAL
UPSCALE GROWTH/ORGANIZATION...WITH SOME DEGREE OF FORWARD
ACCELERATION/PROPAGATION AS A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE.
THIS IS A SCENARIO WELL-SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR RUNS AND THE 12Z
WRF-NSSL. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH AT
LEAST LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41458861 42148714 42388540 41028504 40448556 40308696
            40348834 41098918 41458861






000
ACUS02 KWNS 251647
SWODY2
SPC AC 251646

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS...SOME
STRONG...ALSO ARE EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING
AND EWD PROGRESSING UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. FURTHER EAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NRN PLAINS WILL TRACK SEWD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL EXTENDED SWWD FROM LOW NEAR
JAMES BAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SOME STRONG...FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MO VALLEY...

SFC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN E/SELY UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR SFC THERMAL
GRADIENT AND JUST SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SWD SAGGING SFC COOL
FRONT. A COUPLE OF FLIES IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE POTENTIAL
ONGOING...ALBEIT WEAKENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING...LIMITING SFC HEATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...MODEST MIDLEVEL WARMING IS EXPECTED...LEADING TO
CAPPING CONCERNS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FIRST DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE CO INTO SE WY.
STORMS SHOULD THEN INCREASE DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS
FURTHER EAST IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE
LLJ INCREASES FROM NRN KS INTO NEB. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 25-35 KT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SEMI-ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS. GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..LEITMAN.. 08/25/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 251647
SWODY2
SPC AC 251646

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS...SOME
STRONG...ALSO ARE EXPECTED FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING
AND EWD PROGRESSING UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. FURTHER EAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NRN PLAINS WILL TRACK SEWD TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL EXTENDED SWWD FROM LOW NEAR
JAMES BAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SOME STRONG...FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MO VALLEY...

SFC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN E/SELY UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR SFC THERMAL
GRADIENT AND JUST SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SWD SAGGING SFC COOL
FRONT. A COUPLE OF FLIES IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE POTENTIAL
ONGOING...ALBEIT WEAKENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
MORNING...LIMITING SFC HEATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...MODEST MIDLEVEL WARMING IS EXPECTED...LEADING TO
CAPPING CONCERNS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FIRST DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE CO INTO SE WY.
STORMS SHOULD THEN INCREASE DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS
FURTHER EAST IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE
LLJ INCREASES FROM NRN KS INTO NEB. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 25-35 KT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME SEMI-ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS. GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..LEITMAN.. 08/25/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 251626
SWODY1
SPC AC 251624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN CO...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...

A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE
WHILE PROGRESSING NEWD TOWARDS JAMES BAY. FARTHER WEST...AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP EQUATORWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NW INTO CA...CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND THE STEADY
SEWD MOVEMENT OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER-AIR FEATURES...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
A WEAK PERTURBATION OVER S-CNTRL WY/N-CNTRL CO WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
ENEWD TODAY. ELSEWHERE...A VORTICITY MAXIMUM/INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE
CNTRL GULF COAST WILL ADVANCE WWD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INVOF A LEE CYCLONE.

...CO FRONT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE AUGMENTED BY THE GLANCING INFLUENCE
OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TO PROMOTE WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. THE WWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-2000
J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILE WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

...CNTRL PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

A NE-SW-ORIENTED BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS IS ONGOING AS OF MID MORNING
FROM NRN LOWER MI TO SRN WI WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING FORCED
BY A COMBINATION OF WAA ALONG A WEAKENING NOCTURNAL LLJ AND THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. TO THE SOUTH OF
THESE STORMS...THE 12Z DVN AND ILX SOUNDINGS REVEALED THE PRESENCE
OF A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 3500-4500
J/KG. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER THE CURRENT
STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE HIGH THETA-E RESERVOIR...DUE IN
PART TO THE TENDENCY OF RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PEAK OF
THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SWD-MOVING MCS ACROSS NRN INTO
CNTRL PARTS OF IL/IND. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO UNFOLD AS INDICATED...A
MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD
EVOLVE...REQUIRING A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WITH THE 20Z
ISSUANCE.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT TO THE
NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID
MO VALLEY AS WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE ENHANCED BY A NOCTURNALLY
STRENGTHENING LLJ. THE COMBINATION OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MODEST CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR AND MUCAPE OF 1500-2500+ J/KG
WILL YIELD INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SOME SEVERE HAIL.

...LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

THE 12Z LIX SOUNDING SAMPLED THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
/I.E. PW OF 2.23 IN/ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO STRONG
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ALOFT COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT ALONG AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER SCATTERED AFTERNOON
STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO WSWWD-MOVING
CLUSTERS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...NRN GREAT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EVOLVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN STORMS LATER TODAY...NAMELY ALONG FAVORED TERRAIN.
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

..MEAD/GUYER.. 08/25/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 251626
SWODY1
SPC AC 251624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN CO...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...

A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE
WHILE PROGRESSING NEWD TOWARDS JAMES BAY. FARTHER WEST...AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP EQUATORWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NW INTO CA...CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND THE STEADY
SEWD MOVEMENT OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER-AIR FEATURES...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
A WEAK PERTURBATION OVER S-CNTRL WY/N-CNTRL CO WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
ENEWD TODAY. ELSEWHERE...A VORTICITY MAXIMUM/INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE
CNTRL GULF COAST WILL ADVANCE WWD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY BECOMING
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INVOF A LEE CYCLONE.

...CO FRONT RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE AUGMENTED BY THE GLANCING INFLUENCE
OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TO PROMOTE WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. THE WWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
BENEATH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-2000
J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILE WITH 40-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

...CNTRL PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

A NE-SW-ORIENTED BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS IS ONGOING AS OF MID MORNING
FROM NRN LOWER MI TO SRN WI WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING FORCED
BY A COMBINATION OF WAA ALONG A WEAKENING NOCTURNAL LLJ AND THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. TO THE SOUTH OF
THESE STORMS...THE 12Z DVN AND ILX SOUNDINGS REVEALED THE PRESENCE
OF A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 3500-4500
J/KG. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER THE CURRENT
STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE HIGH THETA-E RESERVOIR...DUE IN
PART TO THE TENDENCY OF RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS THROUGH THE PEAK OF
THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SWD-MOVING MCS ACROSS NRN INTO
CNTRL PARTS OF IL/IND. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO UNFOLD AS INDICATED...A
MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD
EVOLVE...REQUIRING A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WITH THE 20Z
ISSUANCE.

FARTHER TO THE WEST...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT TO THE
NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID
MO VALLEY AS WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE ENHANCED BY A NOCTURNALLY
STRENGTHENING LLJ. THE COMBINATION OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MODEST CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR AND MUCAPE OF 1500-2500+ J/KG
WILL YIELD INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SOME SEVERE HAIL.

...LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

THE 12Z LIX SOUNDING SAMPLED THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
/I.E. PW OF 2.23 IN/ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO STRONG
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ALOFT COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT ALONG AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER SCATTERED AFTERNOON
STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO WSWWD-MOVING
CLUSTERS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...NRN GREAT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE EVOLVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN STORMS LATER TODAY...NAMELY ALONG FAVORED TERRAIN.
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

..MEAD/GUYER.. 08/25/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 251251
SWODY1
SPC AC 251250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS FROM COLORADO
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN...AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY OCCUR OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
SRN MB UPR LOW WILL DEVOLVE INTO A TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES ENE INTO
WRN ONT LATER TODAY AND TO NEAR JAMES BAY EARLY TUE...WHILE
POSITIVE-TILT RIDGE REMAINS STNRY FROM THE SRN RCKYS ACROSS THE
MID-MS VLY TO THE NRN APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK
ENE FROM THE SRN GRT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS INTO THE CNTRL
PLNS ON IMMEDIATE NW FLANK OF THE RIDGE. BUT WEAK HEIGHT RISES WILL
DOMINATE THE PLNS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING MB-ONT SYSTEM.

WRN PART OF COLD FRONT ATTM TRAILING WSW FROM THE UPR MS VLY INTO
THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS SHOULD BECOME QSTNRY OVER ERN CO/KS LATER
TODAY...WHILE THE ERN PORTION CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ESE ACROSS THE
MID-MS VLY AND UPR GRT LKS. ELSEWHERE...WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT WILL
PROGRESS FARTHER W ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF CST/LWR MS VLY.

...CNTRL HIGH PLNS EWD INTO CNTRL PLNS LATER TODAY/TNGT...
COOLER...MODERATELY MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE SPREADING WSW INTO ERN
CO AND SE WY TODAY...IN WAKE OF STALLING COLD FRONT. HEATING S OF
THE BOUNDARY AND ELY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD
AFTN/EVE STORMS OVER THE CO FRONT RANGE AND SE WY. MID TO UPR 50S F
SFC DEWPOINTS BENEATH RELATIVELY COOL MID-LVL TEMPS AND MODERATE
WSWLY MID/UPR-LVL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED
STORMS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL. STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ
AND DEVELOPING HIGH-LVL JET ENTRANCE REGION /ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING UPR DISTURBANCE/ MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A
SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO THIS EVE. THESE SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO
NRN KS AND SRN/CNTRL NEB TNGT...WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR LOCALLY
SVR WIND AND HAIL. PARTS OF NE CO...NW KS...AND NEB MAY REQUIRE
UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT
STORM COVERAGE/SUSTENANCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN NOW
EXPECTED.

...MID/UPR MS VLY INTO MI TODAY/TNGT...
TSTMS NOW OVER ERN IA AND SRN/ERN WI SHOULD DIMINISH AS DIURNAL
HEATING WEAKENS/RE-ORIENTS LLJ AND AS MB UPR SYSTEM CONTINUES ENEWD
/REF MCD 1613/. SOME REJUVENATION MAY OCCUR WITH SFC HEATING ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EWD INTO NRN IL/IND...AND LWR MI LATER TODAY.
ALTHOUGH THE STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR WIND/HAIL GIVEN
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WEAK/NEGATIVE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE/SVR RISK.

SOME INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY INTENSITY MAY OCCUR
LATE TNGT OR EARLY TUE OVER PARTS OF IA...IL...AND WI AS REGION IS
GLANCED BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLNS. MODEST
CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD...HOWEVER...LIMIT
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY.

...CNTRL GULF CST/LWR MS VLY TODAY...
WWD-MOVING UPR TROUGH ON SRN FLANK OF CNTRL U.S. RIDGE WILL ENHANCE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER THE LA-MS AREA TODAY. ASSOCIATED MID-LVL
NELY FLOW ATTM IS RELATIVELY WEAK /20 KTS/...AND FORECAST TO REMAIN
SO. IN ADDITION...MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE
WEAK. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF SEASONABLY-STRONG ASCENT WITH HI
PW /AOA 2 INCHES/ IN THE PRESENCE OF EVEN MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW/ASCENT MAY SUPPORT SW-MOVING DIURNAL STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY DMGG WIND. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH FAR E TX BY EVE.

..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 08/25/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 251251
SWODY1
SPC AC 251250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS FROM COLORADO
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN...AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY OCCUR OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
SRN MB UPR LOW WILL DEVOLVE INTO A TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES ENE INTO
WRN ONT LATER TODAY AND TO NEAR JAMES BAY EARLY TUE...WHILE
POSITIVE-TILT RIDGE REMAINS STNRY FROM THE SRN RCKYS ACROSS THE
MID-MS VLY TO THE NRN APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK
ENE FROM THE SRN GRT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL RCKYS INTO THE CNTRL
PLNS ON IMMEDIATE NW FLANK OF THE RIDGE. BUT WEAK HEIGHT RISES WILL
DOMINATE THE PLNS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING MB-ONT SYSTEM.

WRN PART OF COLD FRONT ATTM TRAILING WSW FROM THE UPR MS VLY INTO
THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS SHOULD BECOME QSTNRY OVER ERN CO/KS LATER
TODAY...WHILE THE ERN PORTION CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ESE ACROSS THE
MID-MS VLY AND UPR GRT LKS. ELSEWHERE...WEAK BACK-DOOR FRONT WILL
PROGRESS FARTHER W ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF CST/LWR MS VLY.

...CNTRL HIGH PLNS EWD INTO CNTRL PLNS LATER TODAY/TNGT...
COOLER...MODERATELY MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE SPREADING WSW INTO ERN
CO AND SE WY TODAY...IN WAKE OF STALLING COLD FRONT. HEATING S OF
THE BOUNDARY AND ELY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD
AFTN/EVE STORMS OVER THE CO FRONT RANGE AND SE WY. MID TO UPR 50S F
SFC DEWPOINTS BENEATH RELATIVELY COOL MID-LVL TEMPS AND MODERATE
WSWLY MID/UPR-LVL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED
STORMS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL. STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ
AND DEVELOPING HIGH-LVL JET ENTRANCE REGION /ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING UPR DISTURBANCE/ MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A
SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO THIS EVE. THESE SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO
NRN KS AND SRN/CNTRL NEB TNGT...WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR LOCALLY
SVR WIND AND HAIL. PARTS OF NE CO...NW KS...AND NEB MAY REQUIRE
UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT
STORM COVERAGE/SUSTENANCE WILL BE SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN NOW
EXPECTED.

...MID/UPR MS VLY INTO MI TODAY/TNGT...
TSTMS NOW OVER ERN IA AND SRN/ERN WI SHOULD DIMINISH AS DIURNAL
HEATING WEAKENS/RE-ORIENTS LLJ AND AS MB UPR SYSTEM CONTINUES ENEWD
/REF MCD 1613/. SOME REJUVENATION MAY OCCUR WITH SFC HEATING ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EWD INTO NRN IL/IND...AND LWR MI LATER TODAY.
ALTHOUGH THE STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR WIND/HAIL GIVEN
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WEAK/NEGATIVE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE/SVR RISK.

SOME INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY INTENSITY MAY OCCUR
LATE TNGT OR EARLY TUE OVER PARTS OF IA...IL...AND WI AS REGION IS
GLANCED BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLNS. MODEST
CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD...HOWEVER...LIMIT
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY.

...CNTRL GULF CST/LWR MS VLY TODAY...
WWD-MOVING UPR TROUGH ON SRN FLANK OF CNTRL U.S. RIDGE WILL ENHANCE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER THE LA-MS AREA TODAY. ASSOCIATED MID-LVL
NELY FLOW ATTM IS RELATIVELY WEAK /20 KTS/...AND FORECAST TO REMAIN
SO. IN ADDITION...MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW MID-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE
WEAK. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF SEASONABLY-STRONG ASCENT WITH HI
PW /AOA 2 INCHES/ IN THE PRESENCE OF EVEN MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW/ASCENT MAY SUPPORT SW-MOVING DIURNAL STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY DMGG WIND. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH FAR E TX BY EVE.

..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 08/25/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251117
WIZ000-ILZ000-251245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251117Z - 251245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS WITH STORM CLUSTERS PROGRESSING E/NE FROM SW WI/FAR
NE IA.

DISCUSSION...MERGING CLUSTERS HAVE SUPPORTED AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND BULGING REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE FROM JUNEAU TO IOWA COUNTY
WI. THIS HAS ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT MOMENTUM AND YIELDED A STRONG WIND
GUST MEASURED AT KLNR OF 44 KT. ALTHOUGH SCATTERERS ARE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN IN DVN/MKX VWP DATA...LSE SAMPLED 50 KT WLYS FROM 3-6 KM AGL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLUSTER. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN FORWARD
MOMENTUM AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLUSTER PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF AN AIR MASS THAT HAS YET NOT BEEN OVERTURNED THIS
MORNING...CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND 72-76 DEG F DEW POINTS. THIS MAY YIELD A BIT LONGER DURATION OF
STRONG GUST POTENTIAL FARTHER E TOWARDS LK MICHIGAN...COMPARED TO
THE RAPID DEMISE OF AN EARLIER CLUSTER NEAR KGRB.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 08/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   43858983 44078892 44138838 43948802 43648790 43178783
            42868784 42588818 42488907 42408989 42549020 42819001
            43128987 43368973 43858983






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251117
WIZ000-ILZ000-251245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251117Z - 251245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS WITH STORM CLUSTERS PROGRESSING E/NE FROM SW WI/FAR
NE IA.

DISCUSSION...MERGING CLUSTERS HAVE SUPPORTED AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND BULGING REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE FROM JUNEAU TO IOWA COUNTY
WI. THIS HAS ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT MOMENTUM AND YIELDED A STRONG WIND
GUST MEASURED AT KLNR OF 44 KT. ALTHOUGH SCATTERERS ARE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN IN DVN/MKX VWP DATA...LSE SAMPLED 50 KT WLYS FROM 3-6 KM AGL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLUSTER. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN FORWARD
MOMENTUM AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLUSTER PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF AN AIR MASS THAT HAS YET NOT BEEN OVERTURNED THIS
MORNING...CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND 72-76 DEG F DEW POINTS. THIS MAY YIELD A BIT LONGER DURATION OF
STRONG GUST POTENTIAL FARTHER E TOWARDS LK MICHIGAN...COMPARED TO
THE RAPID DEMISE OF AN EARLIER CLUSTER NEAR KGRB.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 08/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   43858983 44078892 44138838 43948802 43648790 43178783
            42868784 42588818 42488907 42408989 42549020 42819001
            43128987 43368973 43858983





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251117
WIZ000-ILZ000-251245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251117Z - 251245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS WITH STORM CLUSTERS PROGRESSING E/NE FROM SW WI/FAR
NE IA.

DISCUSSION...MERGING CLUSTERS HAVE SUPPORTED AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND BULGING REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE FROM JUNEAU TO IOWA COUNTY
WI. THIS HAS ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT MOMENTUM AND YIELDED A STRONG WIND
GUST MEASURED AT KLNR OF 44 KT. ALTHOUGH SCATTERERS ARE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN IN DVN/MKX VWP DATA...LSE SAMPLED 50 KT WLYS FROM 3-6 KM AGL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLUSTER. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN FORWARD
MOMENTUM AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CLUSTER PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF AN AIR MASS THAT HAS YET NOT BEEN OVERTURNED THIS
MORNING...CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND 72-76 DEG F DEW POINTS. THIS MAY YIELD A BIT LONGER DURATION OF
STRONG GUST POTENTIAL FARTHER E TOWARDS LK MICHIGAN...COMPARED TO
THE RAPID DEMISE OF AN EARLIER CLUSTER NEAR KGRB.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 08/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   43858983 44078892 44138838 43948802 43648790 43178783
            42868784 42588818 42488907 42408989 42549020 42819001
            43128987 43368973 43858983





000
ACUS03 KWNS 250731
SWODY3
SPC AC 250730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW
STORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS POSSIBLY POSING AN ISOLATED SEVERE
RISK.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SAG SWD INTO THE NRN
PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH CROSSING
ERN CANADA FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...A RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGH CROSSING
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM THE NRN
PLAINS SSWWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH
TIME...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT REMAINS DRAPED W-E
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS FRONT SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND
POSSIBLE/ISOLATED SEVERE RISK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

...ERN CO EWD INTO PARTS OF KS/NEB...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
STATES AND EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH...WITH A TYPICAL/PRONOUNCED MAXIMUM
CORRESPONDING TO PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.  MOST FOCUSED STORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE KS/NEB VICINITY...WHERE A WEAK
FRONTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH.

WITH A BELT OF MODEST SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /25 TO 30 KT AT H5/ AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH PROGGED TO LIE ACROSS CO AND INTO NRN
KS/NEB...RESULTING SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A FEW STRONGER
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS TO EVOLVE -- ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL/WIND.  THUS...WILL INTRODUCE 5% RISK AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF
KS/NEB...AND WWD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE -- NEARER THE TROUGH AXIS
WHERE MARGINAL HAIL RISK MAY EVOLVE.

..GOSS.. 08/25/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 250731
SWODY3
SPC AC 250730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW
STORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS POSSIBLY POSING AN ISOLATED SEVERE
RISK.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SAG SWD INTO THE NRN
PORTION OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH CROSSING
ERN CANADA FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...A RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGH CROSSING
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM THE NRN
PLAINS SSWWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH
TIME...WHILE THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT REMAINS DRAPED W-E
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS FRONT SHOULD
AGAIN REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND
POSSIBLE/ISOLATED SEVERE RISK OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

...ERN CO EWD INTO PARTS OF KS/NEB...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
STATES AND EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH...WITH A TYPICAL/PRONOUNCED MAXIMUM
CORRESPONDING TO PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.  MOST FOCUSED STORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE KS/NEB VICINITY...WHERE A WEAK
FRONTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD
OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH.

WITH A BELT OF MODEST SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /25 TO 30 KT AT H5/ AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH PROGGED TO LIE ACROSS CO AND INTO NRN
KS/NEB...RESULTING SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A FEW STRONGER
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS TO EVOLVE -- ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL/WIND.  THUS...WILL INTRODUCE 5% RISK AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF
KS/NEB...AND WWD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE -- NEARER THE TROUGH AXIS
WHERE MARGINAL HAIL RISK MAY EVOLVE.

..GOSS.. 08/25/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 250601
SWODY2
SPC AC 250559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS AND POSSIBLY
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL POSSIBLY EVOLVING FROM PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE COVERING ALL BUT THE GREAT BASIN/NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/W COAST STATES WILL BE ERODED WITH TIME ON ITS
NRN AND WRN FRINGES.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS A WRN U.S. TROUGH ADVANCES
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE A SECOND TROUGH
MOVES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND EXPANDS GRADUALLY
SWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATER IN THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER FROM THE LOWER
MI/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WSWWD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED/LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS PARTS OF KS/NEB...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD INVOF THE COOL FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER MI VICINITY...BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING.  AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE OH/INDIANA AND ADJACENT
AREAS...BUT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DISORGANIZED/SUB-SEVERE
DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT.

FARTHER W...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES AND VICINITY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES SLOWLY
EWD.  MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
EWD ACROSS THE KS/NEB AREA -- NEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE W-E
SURFACE FRONT.  WHILE MID-LEVEL WLYS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK...ELY COMPONENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD JUST N OF
THE FRONT COULD SUPPORT AMPLE SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS -- CAPABLE OF HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION N OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
OVER NEB AND INTO WRN IA...AS A DEVELOPING SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET
SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT.  ASIDE FROM
ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL WITH A STRONGER CELL OR
TWO...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY SUB-SEVERE OVERNIGHT.

..GOSS.. 08/25/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 250601
SWODY2
SPC AC 250559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS AND POSSIBLY
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL POSSIBLY EVOLVING FROM PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE COVERING ALL BUT THE GREAT BASIN/NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/W COAST STATES WILL BE ERODED WITH TIME ON ITS
NRN AND WRN FRINGES.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS A WRN U.S. TROUGH ADVANCES
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE A SECOND TROUGH
MOVES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE AND EXPANDS GRADUALLY
SWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATER IN THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LINGER FROM THE LOWER
MI/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WSWWD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND
WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED/LIMITED
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ACROSS PARTS OF KS/NEB...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD INVOF THE COOL FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER MI VICINITY...BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING.  AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE OH/INDIANA AND ADJACENT
AREAS...BUT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DISORGANIZED/SUB-SEVERE
DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT.

FARTHER W...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES AND VICINITY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES SLOWLY
EWD.  MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
EWD ACROSS THE KS/NEB AREA -- NEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE W-E
SURFACE FRONT.  WHILE MID-LEVEL WLYS ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK...ELY COMPONENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD JUST N OF
THE FRONT COULD SUPPORT AMPLE SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED/MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS -- CAPABLE OF HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION N OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
OVER NEB AND INTO WRN IA...AS A DEVELOPING SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET
SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT.  ASIDE FROM
ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL WITH A STRONGER CELL OR
TWO...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY SUB-SEVERE OVERNIGHT.

..GOSS.. 08/25/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 250530
SWODY1
SPC AC 250529

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM COLORADO NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NRN MN INTO ONTARIO DURING THE
DAY...WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK HEIGHT TENDENCIES ALOFT IN ITS WAKE OVER
THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH MODERATE FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWD OUT OF ONTARIO INTO WI...THEN SWWD INTO
IA...NRN KS AND ERN CO BY AFTERNOON. ALONG THIS FRONT...A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE WITH WEAK FORCING SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS FROM CO NEWD INTO WI AND MI.

ELSEWHERE...ELY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST S OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPORT WWD-MOVING CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER MS AND LA.

...NERN CO...SERN WY...NRN KS INTO SRN NEB...
NELY SURFACE FLOW AROUND A NRN PLAINS HIGH WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY
COOL AIR N OF A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM E CNTRL CO ACROSS NRN KS
DURING THE DAY. HEATING S OF THE BOUNDARY AND ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS FORMING OVER THE CO FRONT RANGE INTO SERN
WY. MID TO UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS BENEATH RELATIVELY COOL PROFILES
ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL AS STORM MODE SHOULD BE CELLULAR WITH
MODERATELY LONG HODOGRAPHS AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SRH FOR
SUPERCELLS. A STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THE W-E
ORIENTED BOUNDARY MAY HELP A CLUSTER OF STORMS SURVIVE WELL INTO THE
EVENING WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT ACROSS NRN KS AND SRN NEB.

...WI...MI...IA...NRN IL...
EARLY DAY STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SRN WI INTO NRN IL WITH
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. SOME REJUVENATION MAY OCCUR
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO ERN IA...IL AND INDIANA LATER IN THE
DAY WITH MARGINAL WIND/HAIL.

LATER IN THE DAY THE PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
WI ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH. A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN AND CAPPING WILL BE MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE VERY WEAK.
CONDITIONALLY...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

...MS INTO LA...
A NELY FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...S OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND WITH A SURFACE HIGH NOSING SWWD OUT OF THE MID
ATLANTIC. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS DURING THE DAY. SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK...AS WILL LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL/MOSIER.. 08/25/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 250530
SWODY1
SPC AC 250529

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM COLORADO NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NRN MN INTO ONTARIO DURING THE
DAY...WITH NEUTRAL TO WEAK HEIGHT TENDENCIES ALOFT IN ITS WAKE OVER
THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH MODERATE FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A
WEAK TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWD OUT OF ONTARIO INTO WI...THEN SWWD INTO
IA...NRN KS AND ERN CO BY AFTERNOON. ALONG THIS FRONT...A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE WITH WEAK FORCING SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS FROM CO NEWD INTO WI AND MI.

ELSEWHERE...ELY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST S OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPORT WWD-MOVING CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER MS AND LA.

...NERN CO...SERN WY...NRN KS INTO SRN NEB...
NELY SURFACE FLOW AROUND A NRN PLAINS HIGH WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY
COOL AIR N OF A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM E CNTRL CO ACROSS NRN KS
DURING THE DAY. HEATING S OF THE BOUNDARY AND ELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED STORMS FORMING OVER THE CO FRONT RANGE INTO SERN
WY. MID TO UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS BENEATH RELATIVELY COOL PROFILES
ALOFT WILL FAVOR HAIL AS STORM MODE SHOULD BE CELLULAR WITH
MODERATELY LONG HODOGRAPHS AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SRH FOR
SUPERCELLS. A STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THE W-E
ORIENTED BOUNDARY MAY HELP A CLUSTER OF STORMS SURVIVE WELL INTO THE
EVENING WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT ACROSS NRN KS AND SRN NEB.

...WI...MI...IA...NRN IL...
EARLY DAY STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SRN WI INTO NRN IL WITH
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. SOME REJUVENATION MAY OCCUR
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTO ERN IA...IL AND INDIANA LATER IN THE
DAY WITH MARGINAL WIND/HAIL.

LATER IN THE DAY THE PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
WI ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH. A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN AND CAPPING WILL BE MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE VERY WEAK.
CONDITIONALLY...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

...MS INTO LA...
A NELY FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...S OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND WITH A SURFACE HIGH NOSING SWWD OUT OF THE MID
ATLANTIC. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS DURING THE DAY. SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK...AS WILL LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL/MOSIER.. 08/25/2014





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250442
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250441
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-250615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1612
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA...SERN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 250441Z - 250615Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NRN IA INTO SERN MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDES
ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN-NCNTRL IA WHERE 3000+ J/KG MUCAPE CURRENTLY
RESIDES.  WHILE SFC BASED PARCELS MAY NOT BE CONTRIBUTING TO RECENT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PARCELS WITHIN 1KM OF SFC ARE LIKELY
FEEDING UPDRAFTS ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM NEAR DNS...NEWD TO SOUTH
OF RST IN SERN MN.  LARGE HAIL LIKELY ACCOMPANIES THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS...PER WDSSII...OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY IA AND SUFFICIENT SWLY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS PRESENT FOR THIS DEVELOPING LINE TO REMAIN
ORGANIZED AS IT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM.  AT THIS TIME THE GREATEST
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BUT AN OTHERWISE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE BAND MAY ULTIMATELY PROGRESS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NRN
IA TOWARD SWRN WI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 08/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42469502 43959216 43419111 41799405 42469502





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250442
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250441
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-250615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1612
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA...SERN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 250441Z - 250615Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NRN IA INTO SERN MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDES
ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN-NCNTRL IA WHERE 3000+ J/KG MUCAPE CURRENTLY
RESIDES.  WHILE SFC BASED PARCELS MAY NOT BE CONTRIBUTING TO RECENT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PARCELS WITHIN 1KM OF SFC ARE LIKELY
FEEDING UPDRAFTS ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM NEAR DNS...NEWD TO SOUTH
OF RST IN SERN MN.  LARGE HAIL LIKELY ACCOMPANIES THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS...PER WDSSII...OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY IA AND SUFFICIENT SWLY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS PRESENT FOR THIS DEVELOPING LINE TO REMAIN
ORGANIZED AS IT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM.  AT THIS TIME THE GREATEST
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BUT AN OTHERWISE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE BAND MAY ULTIMATELY PROGRESS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NRN
IA TOWARD SWRN WI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 08/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42469502 43959216 43419111 41799405 42469502






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250442
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250441
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-250615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1612
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA...SERN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 250441Z - 250615Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NRN IA INTO SERN MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDES
ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN-NCNTRL IA WHERE 3000+ J/KG MUCAPE CURRENTLY
RESIDES.  WHILE SFC BASED PARCELS MAY NOT BE CONTRIBUTING TO RECENT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...PARCELS WITHIN 1KM OF SFC ARE LIKELY
FEEDING UPDRAFTS ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT FROM NEAR DNS...NEWD TO SOUTH
OF RST IN SERN MN.  LARGE HAIL LIKELY ACCOMPANIES THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS...PER WDSSII...OVER HUMBOLDT COUNTY IA AND SUFFICIENT SWLY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS PRESENT FOR THIS DEVELOPING LINE TO REMAIN
ORGANIZED AS IT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM.  AT THIS TIME THE GREATEST
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BUT AN OTHERWISE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE BAND MAY ULTIMATELY PROGRESS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NRN
IA TOWARD SWRN WI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 08/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42469502 43959216 43419111 41799405 42469502





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