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000
ACUS11 KWNS 040001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040001
MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-040400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN PA...NJ...SERN NY INTO SRN
NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 040001Z - 040400Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE ONGOING FROM PORTIONS
OF CNTRL/ERN PA AND NJ INTO SERN NEW YORK...AND WILL SPREAD ENEWD
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WINTER MIXED PRECIP REMAINING
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...A PLAN-VIEW DEPICTION OF 1.5-KM-AGL FLOW SAMPLED BY
REGIONAL VWPS HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENSIVE LLJ STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ENEWD INTO PA AND SRN NY. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT WITHIN
THE BROADER TERMINUS OF THE LLJ IS SUPPORTING A SHIELD OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NY INTO ERN PA AND NJ...SPREADING ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE LLJ IS MAINTAINING
PRECIPITATION WELL WSWWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAT WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING.

SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING BEGINNING TO OFFSET WAA-INDUCED SFC WARMING
ACCOMPANYING THE SLY SFC-FLOW COMPONENT. AS SUCH...A MIX OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...WITH INITIALLY
SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND BECOMING REPLACED
BY THE WINTRY MIX. WITH EXPECTED WARMING ALOFT OWING TO
WAA...PARTIAL TO PERHAPS NEARLY COMPLETE MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS
WILL OCCUR. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.02 TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 0.05 INCH
PER HOUR -- MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF PA INTO NJ -- WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...SLEET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BECOMING PREDOMINANT...WITH
SLEET ACCUMULATION RATES AROUND 0.05-0.15 INCH PER HOUR.

SIMILAR WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING. A TENDENCY FOR WEAKENING ASCENT/DRYING ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DECREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/INTENSITY IN
THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME...FROM WSW TO ENE.

..COHEN.. 03/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   40207453 39777662 40087783 40847785 42247540 42937243
            42567090 41747060 40887269 40207453





000
ACUS11 KWNS 040001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040001
MAZ000-RIZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-040400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN PA...NJ...SERN NY INTO SRN
NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 040001Z - 040400Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE ONGOING FROM PORTIONS
OF CNTRL/ERN PA AND NJ INTO SERN NEW YORK...AND WILL SPREAD ENEWD
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH WINTER MIXED PRECIP REMAINING
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...A PLAN-VIEW DEPICTION OF 1.5-KM-AGL FLOW SAMPLED BY
REGIONAL VWPS HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENSIVE LLJ STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ENEWD INTO PA AND SRN NY. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT WITHIN
THE BROADER TERMINUS OF THE LLJ IS SUPPORTING A SHIELD OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NY INTO ERN PA AND NJ...SPREADING ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE LLJ IS MAINTAINING
PRECIPITATION WELL WSWWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THAT WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING.

SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
NOCTURNAL COOLING BEGINNING TO OFFSET WAA-INDUCED SFC WARMING
ACCOMPANYING THE SLY SFC-FLOW COMPONENT. AS SUCH...A MIX OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...WITH INITIALLY
SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND BECOMING REPLACED
BY THE WINTRY MIX. WITH EXPECTED WARMING ALOFT OWING TO
WAA...PARTIAL TO PERHAPS NEARLY COMPLETE MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS
WILL OCCUR. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.02 TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 0.05 INCH
PER HOUR -- MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF PA INTO NJ -- WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...SLEET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BECOMING PREDOMINANT...WITH
SLEET ACCUMULATION RATES AROUND 0.05-0.15 INCH PER HOUR.

SIMILAR WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING. A TENDENCY FOR WEAKENING ASCENT/DRYING ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DECREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/INTENSITY IN
THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME...FROM WSW TO ENE.

..COHEN.. 03/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   40207453 39777662 40087783 40847785 42247540 42937243
            42567090 41747060 40887269 40207453





000
ACUS01 KWNS 031954
SWODY1
SPC AC 031952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST STATES...AND ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

...DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS OUTLOOK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
RATIONALE REMAINING VALID. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
APPEAR MOST PROBABLE OVER THE COLORADO VALLEY/FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDER PROBABILITIES APPEAR ONLY AROUND 10 PERCENT FROM
THE WEST TEXAS TO OHIO VALLEY CORRIDOR TONIGHT WITH SPORADIC
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

..GRAMS.. 03/03/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015/

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
WED AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE E PACIFIC...AND FLAT RIDGE
REMAINS STNRY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/WRN ATLANTIC. COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO NRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER IA WILL CONTINUE SE INTO
THE SRN PLNS...THE OZARKS...AND THE LWR TN AND OH VLYS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. A WEAKER FRONT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS NM INTO THE
SRN HI PLNS LATER TODAY/TNGT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SRN STREAM TROUGH
NOW APPROACHING NRN BAJA CA.

...LWR CO VLY TO FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTN...
LARGELY UNIMPEDED SFC HEATING...TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...COOL AIR
ALOFT...AND POCKETS OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD-MOVING SRN STREAM
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
AZ...UT...CO...NM...AND SRN NV. A FEW OF THESE COULD YIELD SMALL
HAIL. MODEST CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR AND LIMIT BUOYANCY /SBCAPE GENERALLY
AOB 250 J PER KG/ SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH/LONGEVITY.

...W TX/SE NM LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED...
WEAK BUOYANCY WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE SRN HI PLNS LATER
TODAY/TNGT...ON WRN FRINGE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH WARM
CONVEYOR ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROUGH. LOW- TO
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS AND
POSITIVE TILT OF TROUGH. BUT COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF EMBEDDED...
NEAR SFC-BASED CONVECTION TO YIELD OCCASIONAL THUNDER...ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE PERIOD.

...ARKLATEX/OZARKS TO OH VLY TNGT/EARLY WED...
850 MB WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY FOCUSED WITH TIME FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD THROUGH THE
OZARKS INTO THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS AS NRN STREAM COLD FRONT
ENCOUNTERS EXISTING ELEVATED CONFLUENCE ZONE/MOIST AXIS MARKING THE
NW FRINGE OF GULF/WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK
AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NEUTRAL AT BEST /OUTSIDE WAA/.
BUT COMBINATION OF TIGHTENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION WITH PW
APPROACHING 1.50 IN MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF SCTD
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO YIELD SPORADIC THUNDER.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 031954
SWODY1
SPC AC 031952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST STATES...AND ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

...DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS OUTLOOK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
RATIONALE REMAINING VALID. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
APPEAR MOST PROBABLE OVER THE COLORADO VALLEY/FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDER PROBABILITIES APPEAR ONLY AROUND 10 PERCENT FROM
THE WEST TEXAS TO OHIO VALLEY CORRIDOR TONIGHT WITH SPORADIC
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

..GRAMS.. 03/03/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015/

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
WED AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE E PACIFIC...AND FLAT RIDGE
REMAINS STNRY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/WRN ATLANTIC. COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO NRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER IA WILL CONTINUE SE INTO
THE SRN PLNS...THE OZARKS...AND THE LWR TN AND OH VLYS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. A WEAKER FRONT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS NM INTO THE
SRN HI PLNS LATER TODAY/TNGT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SRN STREAM TROUGH
NOW APPROACHING NRN BAJA CA.

...LWR CO VLY TO FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTN...
LARGELY UNIMPEDED SFC HEATING...TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...COOL AIR
ALOFT...AND POCKETS OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD-MOVING SRN STREAM
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
AZ...UT...CO...NM...AND SRN NV. A FEW OF THESE COULD YIELD SMALL
HAIL. MODEST CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR AND LIMIT BUOYANCY /SBCAPE GENERALLY
AOB 250 J PER KG/ SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH/LONGEVITY.

...W TX/SE NM LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED...
WEAK BUOYANCY WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE SRN HI PLNS LATER
TODAY/TNGT...ON WRN FRINGE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH WARM
CONVEYOR ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROUGH. LOW- TO
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS AND
POSITIVE TILT OF TROUGH. BUT COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF EMBEDDED...
NEAR SFC-BASED CONVECTION TO YIELD OCCASIONAL THUNDER...ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE PERIOD.

...ARKLATEX/OZARKS TO OH VLY TNGT/EARLY WED...
850 MB WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY FOCUSED WITH TIME FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD THROUGH THE
OZARKS INTO THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS AS NRN STREAM COLD FRONT
ENCOUNTERS EXISTING ELEVATED CONFLUENCE ZONE/MOIST AXIS MARKING THE
NW FRINGE OF GULF/WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK
AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NEUTRAL AT BEST /OUTSIDE WAA/.
BUT COMBINATION OF TIGHTENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION WITH PW
APPROACHING 1.50 IN MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF SCTD
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO YIELD SPORADIC THUNDER.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 031954
SWODY1
SPC AC 031952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST STATES...AND ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

...DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS OUTLOOK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
RATIONALE REMAINING VALID. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
APPEAR MOST PROBABLE OVER THE COLORADO VALLEY/FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDER PROBABILITIES APPEAR ONLY AROUND 10 PERCENT FROM
THE WEST TEXAS TO OHIO VALLEY CORRIDOR TONIGHT WITH SPORADIC
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

..GRAMS.. 03/03/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015/

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
WED AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE E PACIFIC...AND FLAT RIDGE
REMAINS STNRY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/WRN ATLANTIC. COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO NRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER IA WILL CONTINUE SE INTO
THE SRN PLNS...THE OZARKS...AND THE LWR TN AND OH VLYS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. A WEAKER FRONT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS NM INTO THE
SRN HI PLNS LATER TODAY/TNGT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SRN STREAM TROUGH
NOW APPROACHING NRN BAJA CA.

...LWR CO VLY TO FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTN...
LARGELY UNIMPEDED SFC HEATING...TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...COOL AIR
ALOFT...AND POCKETS OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD-MOVING SRN STREAM
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
AZ...UT...CO...NM...AND SRN NV. A FEW OF THESE COULD YIELD SMALL
HAIL. MODEST CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR AND LIMIT BUOYANCY /SBCAPE GENERALLY
AOB 250 J PER KG/ SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH/LONGEVITY.

...W TX/SE NM LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED...
WEAK BUOYANCY WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE SRN HI PLNS LATER
TODAY/TNGT...ON WRN FRINGE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH WARM
CONVEYOR ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROUGH. LOW- TO
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS AND
POSITIVE TILT OF TROUGH. BUT COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF EMBEDDED...
NEAR SFC-BASED CONVECTION TO YIELD OCCASIONAL THUNDER...ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE PERIOD.

...ARKLATEX/OZARKS TO OH VLY TNGT/EARLY WED...
850 MB WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY FOCUSED WITH TIME FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD THROUGH THE
OZARKS INTO THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS AS NRN STREAM COLD FRONT
ENCOUNTERS EXISTING ELEVATED CONFLUENCE ZONE/MOIST AXIS MARKING THE
NW FRINGE OF GULF/WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK
AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NEUTRAL AT BEST /OUTSIDE WAA/.
BUT COMBINATION OF TIGHTENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION WITH PW
APPROACHING 1.50 IN MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF SCTD
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO YIELD SPORADIC THUNDER.






000
ACUS02 KWNS 031729
SWODY2
SPC AC 031728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
PHASING OF A BROAD MULTI-STREAM MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IS ANTICIPATED
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH BECOMING CENTERED
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO NORTH TEXAS AT 04/12Z WILL
PUSH SOUTH AND EAST WITH WESTERN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY QUITE
PROGRESSIVE AS AN ANTICYCLONE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.

...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
LITTLE ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED IN THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH NEARLY CONSTANT PW VALUES ACROSS THE
GULF AND ADJACENT STATES PER GPS/GOES IMAGERY. MEAN MIXING RATIOS
SHOULD LARGELY RANGE FROM 12-14 G/KG WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
PREDOMINATELY IN THE MIDDLE 60S. RELATIVELY WARM MID/HIGH-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD POOR LAPSE RATES /ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT/ AND RESULT IN ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

THE GEOMETRY OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH RESPECT TO THE SHALLOW
FRONTAL ZONE SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LARGELY BE
CONFINED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL HEIGHT
CHANGE OVER THE WARM SECTOR. WHILE STRONG MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE
FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE A TENDENCY FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO BE
UNDERCUT...A SCENARIO DEPICTED BY CONVECTION-ALLOWING REFLECTIVITY
SIMULATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED MARGINAL SEVERE RISK
PROBABILITIES FOR PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT THE
OVERALL THREAT APPEARS RATHER LOW AND MAY BE DOWNGRADED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

..GRAMS.. 03/03/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 031729
SWODY2
SPC AC 031728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
PHASING OF A BROAD MULTI-STREAM MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IS ANTICIPATED
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH BECOMING CENTERED
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO NORTH TEXAS AT 04/12Z WILL
PUSH SOUTH AND EAST WITH WESTERN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY QUITE
PROGRESSIVE AS AN ANTICYCLONE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.

...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
LITTLE ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED IN THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH NEARLY CONSTANT PW VALUES ACROSS THE
GULF AND ADJACENT STATES PER GPS/GOES IMAGERY. MEAN MIXING RATIOS
SHOULD LARGELY RANGE FROM 12-14 G/KG WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
PREDOMINATELY IN THE MIDDLE 60S. RELATIVELY WARM MID/HIGH-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD POOR LAPSE RATES /ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT/ AND RESULT IN ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

THE GEOMETRY OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH RESPECT TO THE SHALLOW
FRONTAL ZONE SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LARGELY BE
CONFINED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL HEIGHT
CHANGE OVER THE WARM SECTOR. WHILE STRONG MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE
FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE A TENDENCY FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO BE
UNDERCUT...A SCENARIO DEPICTED BY CONVECTION-ALLOWING REFLECTIVITY
SIMULATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED MARGINAL SEVERE RISK
PROBABILITIES FOR PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT THE
OVERALL THREAT APPEARS RATHER LOW AND MAY BE DOWNGRADED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

..GRAMS.. 03/03/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 031729
SWODY2
SPC AC 031728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
PHASING OF A BROAD MULTI-STREAM MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IS ANTICIPATED
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH BECOMING CENTERED
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO NORTH TEXAS AT 04/12Z WILL
PUSH SOUTH AND EAST WITH WESTERN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY QUITE
PROGRESSIVE AS AN ANTICYCLONE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.

...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
LITTLE ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED IN THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH NEARLY CONSTANT PW VALUES ACROSS THE
GULF AND ADJACENT STATES PER GPS/GOES IMAGERY. MEAN MIXING RATIOS
SHOULD LARGELY RANGE FROM 12-14 G/KG WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
PREDOMINATELY IN THE MIDDLE 60S. RELATIVELY WARM MID/HIGH-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD POOR LAPSE RATES /ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT/ AND RESULT IN ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

THE GEOMETRY OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH RESPECT TO THE SHALLOW
FRONTAL ZONE SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LARGELY BE
CONFINED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL HEIGHT
CHANGE OVER THE WARM SECTOR. WHILE STRONG MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE
FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE A TENDENCY FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO BE
UNDERCUT...A SCENARIO DEPICTED BY CONVECTION-ALLOWING REFLECTIVITY
SIMULATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED MARGINAL SEVERE RISK
PROBABILITIES FOR PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT THE
OVERALL THREAT APPEARS RATHER LOW AND MAY BE DOWNGRADED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

..GRAMS.. 03/03/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 031729
SWODY2
SPC AC 031728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
PHASING OF A BROAD MULTI-STREAM MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IS ANTICIPATED
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH BECOMING CENTERED
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO NORTH TEXAS AT 04/12Z WILL
PUSH SOUTH AND EAST WITH WESTERN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY QUITE
PROGRESSIVE AS AN ANTICYCLONE BUILDS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.

...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
LITTLE ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED IN THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH NEARLY CONSTANT PW VALUES ACROSS THE
GULF AND ADJACENT STATES PER GPS/GOES IMAGERY. MEAN MIXING RATIOS
SHOULD LARGELY RANGE FROM 12-14 G/KG WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
PREDOMINATELY IN THE MIDDLE 60S. RELATIVELY WARM MID/HIGH-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD POOR LAPSE RATES /ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT/ AND RESULT IN ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY.

THE GEOMETRY OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WITH RESPECT TO THE SHALLOW
FRONTAL ZONE SUGGESTS THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LARGELY BE
CONFINED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL HEIGHT
CHANGE OVER THE WARM SECTOR. WHILE STRONG MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE
FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE A TENDENCY FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO BE
UNDERCUT...A SCENARIO DEPICTED BY CONVECTION-ALLOWING REFLECTIVITY
SIMULATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED MARGINAL SEVERE RISK
PROBABILITIES FOR PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT THE
OVERALL THREAT APPEARS RATHER LOW AND MAY BE DOWNGRADED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

..GRAMS.. 03/03/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 031624
SWODY1
SPC AC 031622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN
ARIZONA INTO WESTERN COLORADO...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WEST
TEXAS...AND MAINLY TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
WED AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE E PACIFIC...AND FLAT RIDGE
REMAINS STNRY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/WRN ATLANTIC. COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO NRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER IA WILL CONTINUE SE INTO
THE SRN PLNS...THE OZARKS...AND THE LWR TN AND OH VLYS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. A WEAKER FRONT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS NM INTO THE
SRN HI PLNS LATER TODAY/TNGT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SRN STREAM TROUGH
NOW APPROACHING NRN BAJA CA.

...LWR CO VLY TO FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTN...
LARGELY UNIMPEDED SFC HEATING...TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...COOL AIR
ALOFT...AND POCKETS OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD-MOVING SRN STREAM
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
AZ...UT...CO...NM...AND SRN NV. A FEW OF THESE COULD YIELD SMALL
HAIL. MODEST CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR AND LIMIT BUOYANCY /SBCAPE GENERALLY
AOB 250 J PER KG/ SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH/LONGEVITY.

...W TX/SE NM LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED...
WEAK BUOYANCY WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE SRN HI PLNS LATER
TODAY/TNGT...ON WRN FRINGE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH WARM
CONVEYOR ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROUGH. LOW- TO
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS AND
POSITIVE TILT OF TROUGH. BUT COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF EMBEDDED...
NEAR SFC-BASED CONVECTION TO YIELD OCCASIONAL THUNDER...ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE PERIOD.

...ARKLATEX/OZARKS TO OH VLY TNGT/EARLY WED...
850 MB WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY FOCUSED WITH TIME FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD THROUGH THE
OZARKS INTO THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS AS NRN STREAM COLD FRONT
ENCOUNTERS EXISTING ELEVATED CONFLUENCE ZONE/MOIST AXIS MARKING THE
NW FRINGE OF GULF/WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK
AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NEUTRAL AT BEST /OUTSIDE WAA/.
BUT COMBINATION OF TIGHTENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION WITH PW
APPROACHING 1.50 IN MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF SCTD
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO YIELD SPORADIC THUNDER.

..CORFIDI/THOMPSON.. 03/03/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 031624
SWODY1
SPC AC 031622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN
ARIZONA INTO WESTERN COLORADO...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WEST
TEXAS...AND MAINLY TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
WED AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE E PACIFIC...AND FLAT RIDGE
REMAINS STNRY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/WRN ATLANTIC. COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO NRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER IA WILL CONTINUE SE INTO
THE SRN PLNS...THE OZARKS...AND THE LWR TN AND OH VLYS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. A WEAKER FRONT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS NM INTO THE
SRN HI PLNS LATER TODAY/TNGT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SRN STREAM TROUGH
NOW APPROACHING NRN BAJA CA.

...LWR CO VLY TO FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTN...
LARGELY UNIMPEDED SFC HEATING...TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...COOL AIR
ALOFT...AND POCKETS OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD-MOVING SRN STREAM
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
AZ...UT...CO...NM...AND SRN NV. A FEW OF THESE COULD YIELD SMALL
HAIL. MODEST CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR AND LIMIT BUOYANCY /SBCAPE GENERALLY
AOB 250 J PER KG/ SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH/LONGEVITY.

...W TX/SE NM LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED...
WEAK BUOYANCY WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE SRN HI PLNS LATER
TODAY/TNGT...ON WRN FRINGE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH WARM
CONVEYOR ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROUGH. LOW- TO
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS AND
POSITIVE TILT OF TROUGH. BUT COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF EMBEDDED...
NEAR SFC-BASED CONVECTION TO YIELD OCCASIONAL THUNDER...ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE PERIOD.

...ARKLATEX/OZARKS TO OH VLY TNGT/EARLY WED...
850 MB WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY FOCUSED WITH TIME FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD THROUGH THE
OZARKS INTO THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS AS NRN STREAM COLD FRONT
ENCOUNTERS EXISTING ELEVATED CONFLUENCE ZONE/MOIST AXIS MARKING THE
NW FRINGE OF GULF/WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK
AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NEUTRAL AT BEST /OUTSIDE WAA/.
BUT COMBINATION OF TIGHTENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION WITH PW
APPROACHING 1.50 IN MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF SCTD
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO YIELD SPORADIC THUNDER.

..CORFIDI/THOMPSON.. 03/03/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 031624
SWODY1
SPC AC 031622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN
ARIZONA INTO WESTERN COLORADO...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WEST
TEXAS...AND MAINLY TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
WED AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE E PACIFIC...AND FLAT RIDGE
REMAINS STNRY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/WRN ATLANTIC. COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO NRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER IA WILL CONTINUE SE INTO
THE SRN PLNS...THE OZARKS...AND THE LWR TN AND OH VLYS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. A WEAKER FRONT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS NM INTO THE
SRN HI PLNS LATER TODAY/TNGT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SRN STREAM TROUGH
NOW APPROACHING NRN BAJA CA.

...LWR CO VLY TO FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTN...
LARGELY UNIMPEDED SFC HEATING...TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...COOL AIR
ALOFT...AND POCKETS OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD-MOVING SRN STREAM
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
AZ...UT...CO...NM...AND SRN NV. A FEW OF THESE COULD YIELD SMALL
HAIL. MODEST CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR AND LIMIT BUOYANCY /SBCAPE GENERALLY
AOB 250 J PER KG/ SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH/LONGEVITY.

...W TX/SE NM LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED...
WEAK BUOYANCY WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE SRN HI PLNS LATER
TODAY/TNGT...ON WRN FRINGE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH WARM
CONVEYOR ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROUGH. LOW- TO
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS AND
POSITIVE TILT OF TROUGH. BUT COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF EMBEDDED...
NEAR SFC-BASED CONVECTION TO YIELD OCCASIONAL THUNDER...ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE PERIOD.

...ARKLATEX/OZARKS TO OH VLY TNGT/EARLY WED...
850 MB WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY FOCUSED WITH TIME FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD THROUGH THE
OZARKS INTO THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS AS NRN STREAM COLD FRONT
ENCOUNTERS EXISTING ELEVATED CONFLUENCE ZONE/MOIST AXIS MARKING THE
NW FRINGE OF GULF/WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK
AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NEUTRAL AT BEST /OUTSIDE WAA/.
BUT COMBINATION OF TIGHTENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION WITH PW
APPROACHING 1.50 IN MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF SCTD
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO YIELD SPORADIC THUNDER.

..CORFIDI/THOMPSON.. 03/03/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 031624
SWODY1
SPC AC 031622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN
ARIZONA INTO WESTERN COLORADO...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WEST
TEXAS...AND MAINLY TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
WED AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE E PACIFIC...AND FLAT RIDGE
REMAINS STNRY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/WRN ATLANTIC. COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO NRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER IA WILL CONTINUE SE INTO
THE SRN PLNS...THE OZARKS...AND THE LWR TN AND OH VLYS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. A WEAKER FRONT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS NM INTO THE
SRN HI PLNS LATER TODAY/TNGT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SRN STREAM TROUGH
NOW APPROACHING NRN BAJA CA.

...LWR CO VLY TO FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTN...
LARGELY UNIMPEDED SFC HEATING...TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...COOL AIR
ALOFT...AND POCKETS OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD-MOVING SRN STREAM
TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
AZ...UT...CO...NM...AND SRN NV. A FEW OF THESE COULD YIELD SMALL
HAIL. MODEST CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR AND LIMIT BUOYANCY /SBCAPE GENERALLY
AOB 250 J PER KG/ SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH/LONGEVITY.

...W TX/SE NM LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED...
WEAK BUOYANCY WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE SRN HI PLNS LATER
TODAY/TNGT...ON WRN FRINGE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH WARM
CONVEYOR ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROUGH. LOW- TO
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS AND
POSITIVE TILT OF TROUGH. BUT COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF EMBEDDED...
NEAR SFC-BASED CONVECTION TO YIELD OCCASIONAL THUNDER...ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE PERIOD.

...ARKLATEX/OZARKS TO OH VLY TNGT/EARLY WED...
850 MB WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
INCREASINGLY FOCUSED WITH TIME FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD THROUGH THE
OZARKS INTO THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS AS NRN STREAM COLD FRONT
ENCOUNTERS EXISTING ELEVATED CONFLUENCE ZONE/MOIST AXIS MARKING THE
NW FRINGE OF GULF/WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK
AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NEUTRAL AT BEST /OUTSIDE WAA/.
BUT COMBINATION OF TIGHTENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION WITH PW
APPROACHING 1.50 IN MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF SCTD
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO YIELD SPORADIC THUNDER.

..CORFIDI/THOMPSON.. 03/03/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 031251
SWODY1
SPC AC 031249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE
MID SOUTH TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
WEST TEXAS...AND THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA TO WESTERN
COLORADO.

...SYNOPSIS...
CONUS UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE...SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY AREA SWWD ACROSS
NRN PLAINS AND SWRN STATES...THROUGH WHICH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL
TRANSIT.  STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- WITH EMBEDDED LOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE SRN CA AND NWRN BAJA -- IS
EXPECTED TO PIVOT EWD TO NRN BAJA AND SWRN AZ THROUGH 00Z...THEN
WEAKEN AND ACCELERATE NEWD TO NM...NRN CHIHUAHUA...AND SRN SONORA BY
12Z.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER PERTURBATION -- INITIALLY LOCATED
OVER SRN ID AND NRN NV -- MOVES SEWD TOWARD 4-CORNERS REGION THROUGH
PERIOD.  NRN-STREAM TROUGHS -- NOW OVER NRN MB AND NR SK -- ARE FCST
TO FOLLOW CYCLONICALLY CURVING PATHS TOWARD 12Z POSITIONS OVER FAR
WRN QUE AND ERN ND/NWRN MN RESPECTIVELY.

AT SFC...STG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE NRN-STREAM
PERTURBATIONS WAS DRAWN AT 11Z FROM FAR NWRN ONT SWWD ACROSS NWRN
MN...ERN SD...N-CENTRAL/SWRN NEB AND NERN CO.  THIS FRONT IS FCST TO
PROCEED SEWD AND EWD...REACHING UPPER GREAT LAKES...SRN IL...CENTRAL
OK AND NERN NM BY 00Z.  BY END OF PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM
NRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD OVER WV...MID TN...SRN AR...AND W-CENTRAL TX.

...AR...MID SOUTH...LOWER OH VALLEY...
CONVECTIVE PRECIP...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED TSTMS...SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT
PRIMARILY N OF AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO SFC COLD FRONT.  BY THIS
TIME...ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL WAA
ALONG AND ABOVE STABLE LAYER TO FORCE PARCELS TO LFC. ALTHOUGH
BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LIMITED -- E.G. MUCAPES GENERALLY BELOW 400
J/KG -- SOME CAPE MAY EXTEND BRIEFLY INTO THERMAL PROFILES SUITABLE
FOR LTG GENERATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT PERIOD
OVER AREAS FARTHER S ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AND CENTRAL/SRN
MS.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BRIEF/VERY ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.  THOUGH OCCURRING IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE DEEP/SPEED SHEAR...AND RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINATION OF CAPE-DEPTH SUPPRESSION BY WEAK
LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FOCI FOR LIFT INDICATE
THUNDER POTENTIAL IS TOO CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

...W TX...
PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ENABLE
SPORADIC CONVECTION ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AMIDST
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APCHG MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
SFC HEATING WILL BE MUTED BENEATH PERSISTENT/LONG-FETCH CLOUD PLUME
NOTED ON IR IMAGERY.  DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR...VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL RENDER THIS AREA VERY MARGINAL FOR A THUNDER
OUTLOOK...WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 400 J/KG.

...NRN AZ TO WRN CO...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK TSTMS MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTN.  COMBINATION OF MRGL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...DIABATIC HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
COOLING ALOFT AND RELATED STEEPENING LAPSE RATES RELATED TO
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...SHOULD YIELD ESSENTIALLY UNINHIBITED 100-300
J/KG MUCAPE EXTENDING AT TIMES INTO FAVORABLE ICING LAYERS FOR LTG
PRODUCTION.  LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL THETAE WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY.

..EDWARDS/GLEASON.. 03/03/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 031251
SWODY1
SPC AC 031249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE
MID SOUTH TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
WEST TEXAS...AND THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA TO WESTERN
COLORADO.

...SYNOPSIS...
CONUS UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE...SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY AREA SWWD ACROSS
NRN PLAINS AND SWRN STATES...THROUGH WHICH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL
TRANSIT.  STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- WITH EMBEDDED LOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE SRN CA AND NWRN BAJA -- IS
EXPECTED TO PIVOT EWD TO NRN BAJA AND SWRN AZ THROUGH 00Z...THEN
WEAKEN AND ACCELERATE NEWD TO NM...NRN CHIHUAHUA...AND SRN SONORA BY
12Z.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER PERTURBATION -- INITIALLY LOCATED
OVER SRN ID AND NRN NV -- MOVES SEWD TOWARD 4-CORNERS REGION THROUGH
PERIOD.  NRN-STREAM TROUGHS -- NOW OVER NRN MB AND NR SK -- ARE FCST
TO FOLLOW CYCLONICALLY CURVING PATHS TOWARD 12Z POSITIONS OVER FAR
WRN QUE AND ERN ND/NWRN MN RESPECTIVELY.

AT SFC...STG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE NRN-STREAM
PERTURBATIONS WAS DRAWN AT 11Z FROM FAR NWRN ONT SWWD ACROSS NWRN
MN...ERN SD...N-CENTRAL/SWRN NEB AND NERN CO.  THIS FRONT IS FCST TO
PROCEED SEWD AND EWD...REACHING UPPER GREAT LAKES...SRN IL...CENTRAL
OK AND NERN NM BY 00Z.  BY END OF PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM
NRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD OVER WV...MID TN...SRN AR...AND W-CENTRAL TX.

...AR...MID SOUTH...LOWER OH VALLEY...
CONVECTIVE PRECIP...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED TSTMS...SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT
PRIMARILY N OF AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO SFC COLD FRONT.  BY THIS
TIME...ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL WAA
ALONG AND ABOVE STABLE LAYER TO FORCE PARCELS TO LFC. ALTHOUGH
BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LIMITED -- E.G. MUCAPES GENERALLY BELOW 400
J/KG -- SOME CAPE MAY EXTEND BRIEFLY INTO THERMAL PROFILES SUITABLE
FOR LTG GENERATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT PERIOD
OVER AREAS FARTHER S ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AND CENTRAL/SRN
MS.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BRIEF/VERY ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.  THOUGH OCCURRING IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE DEEP/SPEED SHEAR...AND RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINATION OF CAPE-DEPTH SUPPRESSION BY WEAK
LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FOCI FOR LIFT INDICATE
THUNDER POTENTIAL IS TOO CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

...W TX...
PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ENABLE
SPORADIC CONVECTION ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AMIDST
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APCHG MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
SFC HEATING WILL BE MUTED BENEATH PERSISTENT/LONG-FETCH CLOUD PLUME
NOTED ON IR IMAGERY.  DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR...VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL RENDER THIS AREA VERY MARGINAL FOR A THUNDER
OUTLOOK...WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 400 J/KG.

...NRN AZ TO WRN CO...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK TSTMS MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTN.  COMBINATION OF MRGL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...DIABATIC HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
COOLING ALOFT AND RELATED STEEPENING LAPSE RATES RELATED TO
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...SHOULD YIELD ESSENTIALLY UNINHIBITED 100-300
J/KG MUCAPE EXTENDING AT TIMES INTO FAVORABLE ICING LAYERS FOR LTG
PRODUCTION.  LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL THETAE WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY.

..EDWARDS/GLEASON.. 03/03/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 031251
SWODY1
SPC AC 031249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE
MID SOUTH TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
WEST TEXAS...AND THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA TO WESTERN
COLORADO.

...SYNOPSIS...
CONUS UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE...SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY AREA SWWD ACROSS
NRN PLAINS AND SWRN STATES...THROUGH WHICH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL
TRANSIT.  STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- WITH EMBEDDED LOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE SRN CA AND NWRN BAJA -- IS
EXPECTED TO PIVOT EWD TO NRN BAJA AND SWRN AZ THROUGH 00Z...THEN
WEAKEN AND ACCELERATE NEWD TO NM...NRN CHIHUAHUA...AND SRN SONORA BY
12Z.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER PERTURBATION -- INITIALLY LOCATED
OVER SRN ID AND NRN NV -- MOVES SEWD TOWARD 4-CORNERS REGION THROUGH
PERIOD.  NRN-STREAM TROUGHS -- NOW OVER NRN MB AND NR SK -- ARE FCST
TO FOLLOW CYCLONICALLY CURVING PATHS TOWARD 12Z POSITIONS OVER FAR
WRN QUE AND ERN ND/NWRN MN RESPECTIVELY.

AT SFC...STG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE NRN-STREAM
PERTURBATIONS WAS DRAWN AT 11Z FROM FAR NWRN ONT SWWD ACROSS NWRN
MN...ERN SD...N-CENTRAL/SWRN NEB AND NERN CO.  THIS FRONT IS FCST TO
PROCEED SEWD AND EWD...REACHING UPPER GREAT LAKES...SRN IL...CENTRAL
OK AND NERN NM BY 00Z.  BY END OF PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM
NRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD OVER WV...MID TN...SRN AR...AND W-CENTRAL TX.

...AR...MID SOUTH...LOWER OH VALLEY...
CONVECTIVE PRECIP...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED TSTMS...SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT
PRIMARILY N OF AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO SFC COLD FRONT.  BY THIS
TIME...ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL WAA
ALONG AND ABOVE STABLE LAYER TO FORCE PARCELS TO LFC. ALTHOUGH
BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LIMITED -- E.G. MUCAPES GENERALLY BELOW 400
J/KG -- SOME CAPE MAY EXTEND BRIEFLY INTO THERMAL PROFILES SUITABLE
FOR LTG GENERATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT PERIOD
OVER AREAS FARTHER S ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AND CENTRAL/SRN
MS.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BRIEF/VERY ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.  THOUGH OCCURRING IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE DEEP/SPEED SHEAR...AND RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINATION OF CAPE-DEPTH SUPPRESSION BY WEAK
LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FOCI FOR LIFT INDICATE
THUNDER POTENTIAL IS TOO CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

...W TX...
PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ENABLE
SPORADIC CONVECTION ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AMIDST
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APCHG MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
SFC HEATING WILL BE MUTED BENEATH PERSISTENT/LONG-FETCH CLOUD PLUME
NOTED ON IR IMAGERY.  DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR...VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL RENDER THIS AREA VERY MARGINAL FOR A THUNDER
OUTLOOK...WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 400 J/KG.

...NRN AZ TO WRN CO...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK TSTMS MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTN.  COMBINATION OF MRGL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...DIABATIC HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
COOLING ALOFT AND RELATED STEEPENING LAPSE RATES RELATED TO
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...SHOULD YIELD ESSENTIALLY UNINHIBITED 100-300
J/KG MUCAPE EXTENDING AT TIMES INTO FAVORABLE ICING LAYERS FOR LTG
PRODUCTION.  LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL THETAE WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY.

..EDWARDS/GLEASON.. 03/03/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 031251
SWODY1
SPC AC 031249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE
MID SOUTH TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
WEST TEXAS...AND THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA TO WESTERN
COLORADO.

...SYNOPSIS...
CONUS UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE...SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY AREA SWWD ACROSS
NRN PLAINS AND SWRN STATES...THROUGH WHICH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL
TRANSIT.  STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- WITH EMBEDDED LOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OFFSHORE SRN CA AND NWRN BAJA -- IS
EXPECTED TO PIVOT EWD TO NRN BAJA AND SWRN AZ THROUGH 00Z...THEN
WEAKEN AND ACCELERATE NEWD TO NM...NRN CHIHUAHUA...AND SRN SONORA BY
12Z.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER PERTURBATION -- INITIALLY LOCATED
OVER SRN ID AND NRN NV -- MOVES SEWD TOWARD 4-CORNERS REGION THROUGH
PERIOD.  NRN-STREAM TROUGHS -- NOW OVER NRN MB AND NR SK -- ARE FCST
TO FOLLOW CYCLONICALLY CURVING PATHS TOWARD 12Z POSITIONS OVER FAR
WRN QUE AND ERN ND/NWRN MN RESPECTIVELY.

AT SFC...STG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE NRN-STREAM
PERTURBATIONS WAS DRAWN AT 11Z FROM FAR NWRN ONT SWWD ACROSS NWRN
MN...ERN SD...N-CENTRAL/SWRN NEB AND NERN CO.  THIS FRONT IS FCST TO
PROCEED SEWD AND EWD...REACHING UPPER GREAT LAKES...SRN IL...CENTRAL
OK AND NERN NM BY 00Z.  BY END OF PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM
NRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD OVER WV...MID TN...SRN AR...AND W-CENTRAL TX.

...AR...MID SOUTH...LOWER OH VALLEY...
CONVECTIVE PRECIP...INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED TSTMS...SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT
PRIMARILY N OF AND NEARLY PARALLEL TO SFC COLD FRONT.  BY THIS
TIME...ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL WAA
ALONG AND ABOVE STABLE LAYER TO FORCE PARCELS TO LFC. ALTHOUGH
BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LIMITED -- E.G. MUCAPES GENERALLY BELOW 400
J/KG -- SOME CAPE MAY EXTEND BRIEFLY INTO THERMAL PROFILES SUITABLE
FOR LTG GENERATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT PERIOD
OVER AREAS FARTHER S ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AND CENTRAL/SRN
MS.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BRIEF/VERY ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.  THOUGH OCCURRING IN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE DEEP/SPEED SHEAR...AND RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINATION OF CAPE-DEPTH SUPPRESSION BY WEAK
LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FOCI FOR LIFT INDICATE
THUNDER POTENTIAL IS TOO CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM.

...W TX...
PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ENABLE
SPORADIC CONVECTION ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AMIDST
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APCHG MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
SFC HEATING WILL BE MUTED BENEATH PERSISTENT/LONG-FETCH CLOUD PLUME
NOTED ON IR IMAGERY.  DESPITE FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR...VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL RENDER THIS AREA VERY MARGINAL FOR A THUNDER
OUTLOOK...WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 400 J/KG.

...NRN AZ TO WRN CO...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK TSTMS MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTN.  COMBINATION OF MRGL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...DIABATIC HEATING OF HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
COOLING ALOFT AND RELATED STEEPENING LAPSE RATES RELATED TO
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...SHOULD YIELD ESSENTIALLY UNINHIBITED 100-300
J/KG MUCAPE EXTENDING AT TIMES INTO FAVORABLE ICING LAYERS FOR LTG
PRODUCTION.  LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL THETAE WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY.

..EDWARDS/GLEASON.. 03/03/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 030830
SWODY3
SPC AC 030829

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT OCCUR...PRIMARILY FROM GEORGIA THROUGH THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LIMITED.

...SYNOPSIS...

POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ERN U.S. THURSDAY
AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE CAROLINAS SWWD INTO THE NWRN GULF WILL ADVANCE SWD...
REACHING THE SRN TIP OF THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT.

...SERN U.S. THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...

AXIS OF VERY WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOB 300 J/KG/ WILL RESIDE IN
NARROW CORRIDOR IN VICINITY OF COLD FRONT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
PERSIST WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE
A GENERAL THUNDER AREA MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER UPDATES FOR A
PORTION OF THIS REGION...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR MORE THAN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

..DIAL.. 03/03/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 030830
SWODY3
SPC AC 030829

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT OCCUR...PRIMARILY FROM GEORGIA THROUGH THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LIMITED.

...SYNOPSIS...

POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ERN U.S. THURSDAY
AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE CAROLINAS SWWD INTO THE NWRN GULF WILL ADVANCE SWD...
REACHING THE SRN TIP OF THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT.

...SERN U.S. THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...

AXIS OF VERY WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOB 300 J/KG/ WILL RESIDE IN
NARROW CORRIDOR IN VICINITY OF COLD FRONT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
PERSIST WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE
A GENERAL THUNDER AREA MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER UPDATES FOR A
PORTION OF THIS REGION...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR MORE THAN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

..DIAL.. 03/03/2015





000
ACUS03 KWNS 030830
SWODY3
SPC AC 030829

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT OCCUR...PRIMARILY FROM GEORGIA THROUGH THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LIMITED.

...SYNOPSIS...

POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ERN U.S. THURSDAY
AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE CAROLINAS SWWD INTO THE NWRN GULF WILL ADVANCE SWD...
REACHING THE SRN TIP OF THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT.

...SERN U.S. THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...

AXIS OF VERY WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOB 300 J/KG/ WILL RESIDE IN
NARROW CORRIDOR IN VICINITY OF COLD FRONT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
PERSIST WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE
A GENERAL THUNDER AREA MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER UPDATES FOR A
PORTION OF THIS REGION...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR MORE THAN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

..DIAL.. 03/03/2015





000
ACUS03 KWNS 030830
SWODY3
SPC AC 030829

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT OCCUR...PRIMARILY FROM GEORGIA THROUGH THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LIMITED.

...SYNOPSIS...

POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ERN U.S. THURSDAY
AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM THE CAROLINAS SWWD INTO THE NWRN GULF WILL ADVANCE SWD...
REACHING THE SRN TIP OF THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT.

...SERN U.S. THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...

AXIS OF VERY WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOB 300 J/KG/ WILL RESIDE IN
NARROW CORRIDOR IN VICINITY OF COLD FRONT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
PERSIST WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE
A GENERAL THUNDER AREA MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER UPDATES FOR A
PORTION OF THIS REGION...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR MORE THAN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

..DIAL.. 03/03/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 030701
SWODY2
SPC AC 030700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGIONS. A FEW STORMS COULD POSE A MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

...SYNOPSIS...

MERGING OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH AND SRN-STREAM CUTOFF LOW NOW OFF THE
COAST OF CA WILL OCCUR TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE
EWD AS A POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS...REACHING THE MS
VALLEY REGION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
NERN STATES SWWD THROUGH NRN TX WILL ADVANCE SWD DURING THE DAY. BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE
CAROLINAS SWWD INTO THE WRN GULF.

...SERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FROM SRN TX INTO THE SERN STATES WITH MID-UPPER 60F DEWPOINTS
BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK /AOB 500
J/KG/ MLCAPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST A
WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 750 MB SUGGESTING THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SWD-ADVANCING
SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE. WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT THERE SHOULD BE A
TENDENCY FOR THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT
AS IT MOVE SWD. STRONG VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS MIGHT EXIST FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND A TENDENCY FOR THE ACTIVITY TO BE
UNDERCUT BY SHALLOW...COLD AIR SUGGEST SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN
LOW.

..DIAL.. 03/03/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 030701
SWODY2
SPC AC 030700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGIONS. A FEW STORMS COULD POSE A MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

...SYNOPSIS...

MERGING OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH AND SRN-STREAM CUTOFF LOW NOW OFF THE
COAST OF CA WILL OCCUR TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE
EWD AS A POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS...REACHING THE MS
VALLEY REGION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
NERN STATES SWWD THROUGH NRN TX WILL ADVANCE SWD DURING THE DAY. BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE
CAROLINAS SWWD INTO THE WRN GULF.

...SERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FROM SRN TX INTO THE SERN STATES WITH MID-UPPER 60F DEWPOINTS
BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK /AOB 500
J/KG/ MLCAPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST A
WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 750 MB SUGGESTING THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SWD-ADVANCING
SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE. WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT THERE SHOULD BE A
TENDENCY FOR THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT
AS IT MOVE SWD. STRONG VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS MIGHT EXIST FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND A TENDENCY FOR THE ACTIVITY TO BE
UNDERCUT BY SHALLOW...COLD AIR SUGGEST SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN
LOW.

..DIAL.. 03/03/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 030701
SWODY2
SPC AC 030700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGIONS. A FEW STORMS COULD POSE A MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

...SYNOPSIS...

MERGING OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH AND SRN-STREAM CUTOFF LOW NOW OFF THE
COAST OF CA WILL OCCUR TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE
EWD AS A POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS...REACHING THE MS
VALLEY REGION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
NERN STATES SWWD THROUGH NRN TX WILL ADVANCE SWD DURING THE DAY. BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE
CAROLINAS SWWD INTO THE WRN GULF.

...SERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR FROM SRN TX INTO THE SERN STATES WITH MID-UPPER 60F DEWPOINTS
BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK /AOB 500
J/KG/ MLCAPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST A
WEAK CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 750 MB SUGGESTING THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SWD-ADVANCING
SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE. WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT THERE SHOULD BE A
TENDENCY FOR THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT
AS IT MOVE SWD. STRONG VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS MIGHT EXIST FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND A TENDENCY FOR THE ACTIVITY TO BE
UNDERCUT BY SHALLOW...COLD AIR SUGGEST SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN
LOW.

..DIAL.. 03/03/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 030555
SWODY1
SPC AC 030553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...AND ON TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE SSWWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W TO SRN CA AND THE
ADJACENT ERN PACIFIC IS PROGGED TO MAKE EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE U.S.
TUE.  AS THIS OCCURS...AN ASSOCIATED NE-SW SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SHARPEN AS IT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S.
WITH TIME.

WITH GENERALLY DRY/STABLE AIR PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY...THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED.  ONE AREA OF
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES...AS COOL AIR AT MID-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH YIELDS WEAK DESTABILIZATION.  SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE ADVANCING SURFACE
FRONT -- FROM PORTIONS OF W TX EWD INTO THE MID MS/TN/LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION.  IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS...MEAGER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
WEAK/DISORGANIZED CONVECTION.

..GOSS/PICCA.. 03/03/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 030555
SWODY1
SPC AC 030553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...AND ON TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE SSWWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W TO SRN CA AND THE
ADJACENT ERN PACIFIC IS PROGGED TO MAKE EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE U.S.
TUE.  AS THIS OCCURS...AN ASSOCIATED NE-SW SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SHARPEN AS IT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S.
WITH TIME.

WITH GENERALLY DRY/STABLE AIR PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY...THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED.  ONE AREA OF
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES...AS COOL AIR AT MID-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH YIELDS WEAK DESTABILIZATION.  SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE ADVANCING SURFACE
FRONT -- FROM PORTIONS OF W TX EWD INTO THE MID MS/TN/LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION.  IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS...MEAGER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
WEAK/DISORGANIZED CONVECTION.

..GOSS/PICCA.. 03/03/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 030555
SWODY1
SPC AC 030553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...AND ON TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE SSWWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W TO SRN CA AND THE
ADJACENT ERN PACIFIC IS PROGGED TO MAKE EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE U.S.
TUE.  AS THIS OCCURS...AN ASSOCIATED NE-SW SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SHARPEN AS IT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S.
WITH TIME.

WITH GENERALLY DRY/STABLE AIR PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY...THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED.  ONE AREA OF
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES...AS COOL AIR AT MID-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH YIELDS WEAK DESTABILIZATION.  SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE ADVANCING SURFACE
FRONT -- FROM PORTIONS OF W TX EWD INTO THE MID MS/TN/LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION.  IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS...MEAGER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS
WEAK/DISORGANIZED CONVECTION.

..GOSS/PICCA.. 03/03/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 030056
SWODY1
SPC AC 030054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

...THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS AREA...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ATTM FROM PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND SRN CA EWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A REGION OF COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER THIS REGION.
WHILE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT A DIURNAL
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..GOSS.. 03/03/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 030056
SWODY1
SPC AC 030054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

...THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS AREA...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ATTM FROM PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND SRN CA EWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A REGION OF COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH RESIDING OVER THIS REGION.
WHILE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXPECT A DIURNAL
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..GOSS.. 03/03/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 022001
SWODY1
SPC AC 022000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

...SOUTHWEST STATES...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THUNDERSTORM AREAS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS/GUIDANCE. SEVERAL AREAS OF SPORADIC LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
SHOULD PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON OVER CALIFORNIA...WHILE DEVELOPING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS AREA.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
EXPECTED.

...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
WITH CLOUD TOPS HAVING WARMED WITHIN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR
ADVECTION REGIME...THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BACKED
TONIGHT...FURTHER LIMITING PROSPECTS FOR SUBSTANTIAL FORCED ASCENT.

..GRAMS.. 03/02/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015/

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
LARGE-SCALE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFIED E PACIFIC RIDGE. APPRECIABLE
SMALLER-SCALE CHANGES WILL OCCUR...HOWEVER...WITHIN THE SPLIT. THE
ORIGINAL E PACIFIC UPR LOW...HAVING DEVOLVED INTO THE SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEARING LAX...SHOULD ACCELERATE E/NE ACROSS THE
LWR CO VLY BY EVE AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY TUE...WHILE
SPEED MAX NOW OFF THE NRN CA CST CONTINUES S TO DEVELOP INTO A
CLOSED LOW W OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
SPLIT...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE PLNS TO THE E CST.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SRN/CNTRL CA...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND S
FL...DRY AND/OR COLD LOW-LVL AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. OTHER THAN WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSING UPR VORT IN SRN CA...AND ENHANCEMENT OF
EXISTING SFC LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS IN RESPONSE TO THE SAME
DISTURBANCE...LOW-LVL SOURCES OF CONVERGENCE/ASCENT WILL BE
WEAK/ABSENT.

...SRN/CNTRL CA TO FOUR CORNERS TODAY/TNGT...
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW WDLY SCTD DISCRETE SHOWERS/TSTMS ATTM
OVER THE CA CSTL WATERS FROM NEAR VBG SE TO NEAR SAN DIEGO. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH DCVA/VERY COOL MID-LVL TEMPS /AOB MINUS
25 C/ ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE. RELATIVELY DRY
INLAND AIR /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S F/ WILL LIMIT SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY. BUT COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LOW- TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
AND TERRAIN UPLIFT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST A FEW STORMS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP INLAND THROUGH EARLY AFTN...BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
WITH THE CONTINUED E/NE MOTION OF UPR FEATURE. A SPOT OR TWO OF
SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION...TERRAIN-BACKED FLOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE CST FROM LAX SEWD MAY SUFFICIENTLY ENHANCE NEAR-SFC SRH
FOR A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. WEAK DEEP SHEAR AND EARLY PASSAGE OF VORT
LOBE SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR A SUSTAINED SVR THREAT.

FARTHER E...MORE ISOLD TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE VORT LOBE ACROSS THE
LWR CO VLY LATER TODAY. ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS ALSO MAY OCCUR A
BIT LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHERE
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SFC LOW WILL SUPPLY LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AMIDST
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.

...LWR MS VLY THROUGH EARLY TUE...
MODEST WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP RECENTLY-REINFORCED DOME OF POLAR
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EPISODIC...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CLUSTERS
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM FAR E TX AND LA NEWD INTO PARTS OF AR AND MS.
ABSENCE OF IDENTIFIABLE UPR-LVL FEATURES TO ENHANCE UPLIFT...AND
LARGELY ANTICYCLONIC LWR-LVL ENVIRONMENT...SUGGEST MINIMAL RISK FOR
SVR WEATHER DESPITE PW BEING AOA 1.25 INCHES.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 022001
SWODY1
SPC AC 022000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHWEST STATES.

...SOUTHWEST STATES...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THUNDERSTORM AREAS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS/GUIDANCE. SEVERAL AREAS OF SPORADIC LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
SHOULD PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON OVER CALIFORNIA...WHILE DEVELOPING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS AREA.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
EXPECTED.

...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
WITH CLOUD TOPS HAVING WARMED WITHIN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR
ADVECTION REGIME...THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BACKED
TONIGHT...FURTHER LIMITING PROSPECTS FOR SUBSTANTIAL FORCED ASCENT.

..GRAMS.. 03/02/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015/

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
LARGE-SCALE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFIED E PACIFIC RIDGE. APPRECIABLE
SMALLER-SCALE CHANGES WILL OCCUR...HOWEVER...WITHIN THE SPLIT. THE
ORIGINAL E PACIFIC UPR LOW...HAVING DEVOLVED INTO THE SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEARING LAX...SHOULD ACCELERATE E/NE ACROSS THE
LWR CO VLY BY EVE AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY TUE...WHILE
SPEED MAX NOW OFF THE NRN CA CST CONTINUES S TO DEVELOP INTO A
CLOSED LOW W OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
SPLIT...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE PLNS TO THE E CST.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SRN/CNTRL CA...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND S
FL...DRY AND/OR COLD LOW-LVL AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. OTHER THAN WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSING UPR VORT IN SRN CA...AND ENHANCEMENT OF
EXISTING SFC LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS IN RESPONSE TO THE SAME
DISTURBANCE...LOW-LVL SOURCES OF CONVERGENCE/ASCENT WILL BE
WEAK/ABSENT.

...SRN/CNTRL CA TO FOUR CORNERS TODAY/TNGT...
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW WDLY SCTD DISCRETE SHOWERS/TSTMS ATTM
OVER THE CA CSTL WATERS FROM NEAR VBG SE TO NEAR SAN DIEGO. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH DCVA/VERY COOL MID-LVL TEMPS /AOB MINUS
25 C/ ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE. RELATIVELY DRY
INLAND AIR /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S F/ WILL LIMIT SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY. BUT COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LOW- TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
AND TERRAIN UPLIFT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST A FEW STORMS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP INLAND THROUGH EARLY AFTN...BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
WITH THE CONTINUED E/NE MOTION OF UPR FEATURE. A SPOT OR TWO OF
SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION...TERRAIN-BACKED FLOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE CST FROM LAX SEWD MAY SUFFICIENTLY ENHANCE NEAR-SFC SRH
FOR A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. WEAK DEEP SHEAR AND EARLY PASSAGE OF VORT
LOBE SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR A SUSTAINED SVR THREAT.

FARTHER E...MORE ISOLD TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE VORT LOBE ACROSS THE
LWR CO VLY LATER TODAY. ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS ALSO MAY OCCUR A
BIT LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHERE
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SFC LOW WILL SUPPLY LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AMIDST
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.

...LWR MS VLY THROUGH EARLY TUE...
MODEST WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP RECENTLY-REINFORCED DOME OF POLAR
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EPISODIC...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CLUSTERS
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM FAR E TX AND LA NEWD INTO PARTS OF AR AND MS.
ABSENCE OF IDENTIFIABLE UPR-LVL FEATURES TO ENHANCE UPLIFT...AND
LARGELY ANTICYCLONIC LWR-LVL ENVIRONMENT...SUGGEST MINIMAL RISK FOR
SVR WEATHER DESPITE PW BEING AOA 1.25 INCHES.






000
ACUS02 KWNS 021728
SWODY2
SPC AC 021727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...AND ON TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE PERIOD
BECOMING CENTERED FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY
04/12Z. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE. A FLAT RIDGE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
EAST COAST...EMANATING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.

...ARK-LA-TEX TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLIES LATE DAY 1 INTO DAY 2
WILL YIELD POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF A WESTERN GULF MOISTURE PLUME. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL IMPINGE ON THIS MODIFYING WARM SECTOR
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
BY MID/UPPER-LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE BROAD
TROUGH. ONLY MEAGER MUCAPE IS EXPECTED WHERE FORCED ASCENT OCCURS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AN EXPANDING SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BAND
SHOULD DEVELOP BY TUESDAY EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SPORADIC
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ACCOMPANY EMBEDDED DEEPER UPDRAFTS.

...FAR WEST TO NORTH TEXAS...
A LOBE OF FORCED ASCENT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF THE
SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
MOISTENING AROUND 700 MB AMIDST STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RELATIVE TO FARTHER NORTHEAST MAY YIELD SCANT BUOYANCY AND A RISK
FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.

...FOUR CORNERS AREA...
DIURNAL HEATING NEAR THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL YIELD STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE...AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN IN
CONJUNCTION WITH OROGRAPHIC ASCENT SHOULD FOSTER A RISK FOR ISOLATED
LIGHTNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

..GRAMS.. 03/02/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 021728
SWODY2
SPC AC 021727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...AND ON TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE PERIOD
BECOMING CENTERED FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY
04/12Z. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE. A FLAT RIDGE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
EAST COAST...EMANATING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.

...ARK-LA-TEX TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLIES LATE DAY 1 INTO DAY 2
WILL YIELD POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF A WESTERN GULF MOISTURE PLUME. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL IMPINGE ON THIS MODIFYING WARM SECTOR
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
BY MID/UPPER-LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE BROAD
TROUGH. ONLY MEAGER MUCAPE IS EXPECTED WHERE FORCED ASCENT OCCURS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AN EXPANDING SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BAND
SHOULD DEVELOP BY TUESDAY EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SPORADIC
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ACCOMPANY EMBEDDED DEEPER UPDRAFTS.

...FAR WEST TO NORTH TEXAS...
A LOBE OF FORCED ASCENT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF THE
SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
MOISTENING AROUND 700 MB AMIDST STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RELATIVE TO FARTHER NORTHEAST MAY YIELD SCANT BUOYANCY AND A RISK
FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.

...FOUR CORNERS AREA...
DIURNAL HEATING NEAR THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL YIELD STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE...AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN IN
CONJUNCTION WITH OROGRAPHIC ASCENT SHOULD FOSTER A RISK FOR ISOLATED
LIGHTNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

..GRAMS.. 03/02/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 021728
SWODY2
SPC AC 021727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...AND ON TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE PERIOD
BECOMING CENTERED FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY
04/12Z. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES OF VARYING AMPLITUDE. A FLAT RIDGE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
EAST COAST...EMANATING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.

...ARK-LA-TEX TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLIES LATE DAY 1 INTO DAY 2
WILL YIELD POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF A WESTERN GULF MOISTURE PLUME. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL IMPINGE ON THIS MODIFYING WARM SECTOR
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
BY MID/UPPER-LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE BROAD
TROUGH. ONLY MEAGER MUCAPE IS EXPECTED WHERE FORCED ASCENT OCCURS
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AN EXPANDING SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BAND
SHOULD DEVELOP BY TUESDAY EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SPORADIC
LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ACCOMPANY EMBEDDED DEEPER UPDRAFTS.

...FAR WEST TO NORTH TEXAS...
A LOBE OF FORCED ASCENT SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF THE
SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
MOISTENING AROUND 700 MB AMIDST STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RELATIVE TO FARTHER NORTHEAST MAY YIELD SCANT BUOYANCY AND A RISK
FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.

...FOUR CORNERS AREA...
DIURNAL HEATING NEAR THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL YIELD STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE...AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN IN
CONJUNCTION WITH OROGRAPHIC ASCENT SHOULD FOSTER A RISK FOR ISOLATED
LIGHTNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

..GRAMS.. 03/02/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 021611
SWODY1
SPC AC 021609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER PARTS SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY...AND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
LARGE-SCALE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFIED E PACIFIC RIDGE. APPRECIABLE
SMALLER-SCALE CHANGES WILL OCCUR...HOWEVER...WITHIN THE SPLIT. THE
ORIGINAL E PACIFIC UPR LOW...HAVING DEVOLVED INTO THE SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEARING LAX...SHOULD ACCELERATE E/NE ACROSS THE
LWR CO VLY BY EVE AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY TUE...WHILE
SPEED MAX NOW OFF THE NRN CA CST CONTINUES S TO DEVELOP INTO A
CLOSED LOW W OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
SPLIT...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE PLNS TO THE E CST.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SRN/CNTRL CA...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND S
FL...DRY AND/OR COLD LOW-LVL AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. OTHER THAN WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSING UPR VORT IN SRN CA...AND ENHANCEMENT OF
EXISTING SFC LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS IN RESPONSE TO THE SAME
DISTURBANCE...LOW-LVL SOURCES OF CONVERGENCE/ASCENT WILL BE
WEAK/ABSENT.

...SRN/CNTRL CA TO FOUR CORNERS TODAY/TNGT...
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW WDLY SCTD DISCRETE SHOWERS/TSTMS ATTM
OVER THE CA CSTL WATERS FROM NEAR VBG SE TO NEAR SAN DIEGO. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH DCVA/VERY COOL MID-LVL TEMPS /AOB MINUS
25 C/ ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE. RELATIVELY DRY
INLAND AIR /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S F/ WILL LIMIT SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY. BUT COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LOW- TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
AND TERRAIN UPLIFT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST A FEW STORMS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP INLAND THROUGH EARLY AFTN...BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
WITH THE CONTINUED E/NE MOTION OF UPR FEATURE. A SPOT OR TWO OF
SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION...TERRAIN-BACKED FLOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE CST FROM LAX SEWD MAY SUFFICIENTLY ENHANCE NEAR-SFC SRH
FOR A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. WEAK DEEP SHEAR AND EARLY PASSAGE OF VORT
LOBE SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR A SUSTAINED SVR THREAT.

FARTHER E...MORE ISOLD TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE VORT LOBE ACROSS THE
LWR CO VLY LATER TODAY. ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS ALSO MAY OCCUR A
BIT LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHERE
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SFC LOW WILL SUPPLY LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AMIDST
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.

...LWR MS VLY THROUGH EARLY TUE...
MODEST WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP RECENTLY-REINFORCED DOME OF POLAR
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EPISODIC...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CLUSTERS
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM FAR E TX AND LA NEWD INTO PARTS OF AR AND MS.
ABSENCE OF IDENTIFIABLE UPR-LVL FEATURES TO ENHANCE UPLIFT...AND
LARGELY ANTICYCLONIC LWR-LVL ENVIRONMENT...SUGGEST MINIMAL RISK FOR
SVR WEATHER DESPITE PW BEING AOA 1.25 INCHES.

..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 03/02/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 021611
SWODY1
SPC AC 021609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER PARTS SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY...AND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
LARGE-SCALE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFIED E PACIFIC RIDGE. APPRECIABLE
SMALLER-SCALE CHANGES WILL OCCUR...HOWEVER...WITHIN THE SPLIT. THE
ORIGINAL E PACIFIC UPR LOW...HAVING DEVOLVED INTO THE SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEARING LAX...SHOULD ACCELERATE E/NE ACROSS THE
LWR CO VLY BY EVE AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY TUE...WHILE
SPEED MAX NOW OFF THE NRN CA CST CONTINUES S TO DEVELOP INTO A
CLOSED LOW W OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
SPLIT...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE PLNS TO THE E CST.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SRN/CNTRL CA...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND S
FL...DRY AND/OR COLD LOW-LVL AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. OTHER THAN WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSING UPR VORT IN SRN CA...AND ENHANCEMENT OF
EXISTING SFC LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS IN RESPONSE TO THE SAME
DISTURBANCE...LOW-LVL SOURCES OF CONVERGENCE/ASCENT WILL BE
WEAK/ABSENT.

...SRN/CNTRL CA TO FOUR CORNERS TODAY/TNGT...
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW WDLY SCTD DISCRETE SHOWERS/TSTMS ATTM
OVER THE CA CSTL WATERS FROM NEAR VBG SE TO NEAR SAN DIEGO. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH DCVA/VERY COOL MID-LVL TEMPS /AOB MINUS
25 C/ ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE. RELATIVELY DRY
INLAND AIR /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S F/ WILL LIMIT SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY. BUT COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LOW- TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
AND TERRAIN UPLIFT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST A FEW STORMS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP INLAND THROUGH EARLY AFTN...BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
WITH THE CONTINUED E/NE MOTION OF UPR FEATURE. A SPOT OR TWO OF
SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION...TERRAIN-BACKED FLOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE CST FROM LAX SEWD MAY SUFFICIENTLY ENHANCE NEAR-SFC SRH
FOR A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. WEAK DEEP SHEAR AND EARLY PASSAGE OF VORT
LOBE SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR A SUSTAINED SVR THREAT.

FARTHER E...MORE ISOLD TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE VORT LOBE ACROSS THE
LWR CO VLY LATER TODAY. ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS ALSO MAY OCCUR A
BIT LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHERE
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SFC LOW WILL SUPPLY LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AMIDST
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.

...LWR MS VLY THROUGH EARLY TUE...
MODEST WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP RECENTLY-REINFORCED DOME OF POLAR
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EPISODIC...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CLUSTERS
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM FAR E TX AND LA NEWD INTO PARTS OF AR AND MS.
ABSENCE OF IDENTIFIABLE UPR-LVL FEATURES TO ENHANCE UPLIFT...AND
LARGELY ANTICYCLONIC LWR-LVL ENVIRONMENT...SUGGEST MINIMAL RISK FOR
SVR WEATHER DESPITE PW BEING AOA 1.25 INCHES.

..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 03/02/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 021611
SWODY1
SPC AC 021609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER PARTS SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY...AND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
LARGE-SCALE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFIED E PACIFIC RIDGE. APPRECIABLE
SMALLER-SCALE CHANGES WILL OCCUR...HOWEVER...WITHIN THE SPLIT. THE
ORIGINAL E PACIFIC UPR LOW...HAVING DEVOLVED INTO THE SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEARING LAX...SHOULD ACCELERATE E/NE ACROSS THE
LWR CO VLY BY EVE AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY TUE...WHILE
SPEED MAX NOW OFF THE NRN CA CST CONTINUES S TO DEVELOP INTO A
CLOSED LOW W OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
SPLIT...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE PLNS TO THE E CST.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SRN/CNTRL CA...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND S
FL...DRY AND/OR COLD LOW-LVL AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. OTHER THAN WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSING UPR VORT IN SRN CA...AND ENHANCEMENT OF
EXISTING SFC LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS IN RESPONSE TO THE SAME
DISTURBANCE...LOW-LVL SOURCES OF CONVERGENCE/ASCENT WILL BE
WEAK/ABSENT.

...SRN/CNTRL CA TO FOUR CORNERS TODAY/TNGT...
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW WDLY SCTD DISCRETE SHOWERS/TSTMS ATTM
OVER THE CA CSTL WATERS FROM NEAR VBG SE TO NEAR SAN DIEGO. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH DCVA/VERY COOL MID-LVL TEMPS /AOB MINUS
25 C/ ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE. RELATIVELY DRY
INLAND AIR /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S F/ WILL LIMIT SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY. BUT COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LOW- TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
AND TERRAIN UPLIFT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST A FEW STORMS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP INLAND THROUGH EARLY AFTN...BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
WITH THE CONTINUED E/NE MOTION OF UPR FEATURE. A SPOT OR TWO OF
SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION...TERRAIN-BACKED FLOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE CST FROM LAX SEWD MAY SUFFICIENTLY ENHANCE NEAR-SFC SRH
FOR A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. WEAK DEEP SHEAR AND EARLY PASSAGE OF VORT
LOBE SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR A SUSTAINED SVR THREAT.

FARTHER E...MORE ISOLD TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE VORT LOBE ACROSS THE
LWR CO VLY LATER TODAY. ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS ALSO MAY OCCUR A
BIT LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHERE
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SFC LOW WILL SUPPLY LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AMIDST
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.

...LWR MS VLY THROUGH EARLY TUE...
MODEST WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP RECENTLY-REINFORCED DOME OF POLAR
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EPISODIC...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CLUSTERS
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM FAR E TX AND LA NEWD INTO PARTS OF AR AND MS.
ABSENCE OF IDENTIFIABLE UPR-LVL FEATURES TO ENHANCE UPLIFT...AND
LARGELY ANTICYCLONIC LWR-LVL ENVIRONMENT...SUGGEST MINIMAL RISK FOR
SVR WEATHER DESPITE PW BEING AOA 1.25 INCHES.

..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 03/02/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 021611
SWODY1
SPC AC 021609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER PARTS SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY...AND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
LARGE-SCALE...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFIED E PACIFIC RIDGE. APPRECIABLE
SMALLER-SCALE CHANGES WILL OCCUR...HOWEVER...WITHIN THE SPLIT. THE
ORIGINAL E PACIFIC UPR LOW...HAVING DEVOLVED INTO THE SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEARING LAX...SHOULD ACCELERATE E/NE ACROSS THE
LWR CO VLY BY EVE AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY TUE...WHILE
SPEED MAX NOW OFF THE NRN CA CST CONTINUES S TO DEVELOP INTO A
CLOSED LOW W OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
SPLIT...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE PLNS TO THE E CST.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SRN/CNTRL CA...THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AND S
FL...DRY AND/OR COLD LOW-LVL AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. OTHER THAN WIND SHIFT THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSING UPR VORT IN SRN CA...AND ENHANCEMENT OF
EXISTING SFC LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS IN RESPONSE TO THE SAME
DISTURBANCE...LOW-LVL SOURCES OF CONVERGENCE/ASCENT WILL BE
WEAK/ABSENT.

...SRN/CNTRL CA TO FOUR CORNERS TODAY/TNGT...
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW WDLY SCTD DISCRETE SHOWERS/TSTMS ATTM
OVER THE CA CSTL WATERS FROM NEAR VBG SE TO NEAR SAN DIEGO. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH DCVA/VERY COOL MID-LVL TEMPS /AOB MINUS
25 C/ ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED VORT LOBE. RELATIVELY DRY
INLAND AIR /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S F/ WILL LIMIT SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY. BUT COMBINATION OF STEEPENING LOW- TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
AND TERRAIN UPLIFT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST A FEW STORMS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP INLAND THROUGH EARLY AFTN...BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES
WITH THE CONTINUED E/NE MOTION OF UPR FEATURE. A SPOT OR TWO OF
SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION...TERRAIN-BACKED FLOW ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE CST FROM LAX SEWD MAY SUFFICIENTLY ENHANCE NEAR-SFC SRH
FOR A WATERSPOUT OR TWO. WEAK DEEP SHEAR AND EARLY PASSAGE OF VORT
LOBE SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR A SUSTAINED SVR THREAT.

FARTHER E...MORE ISOLD TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE VORT LOBE ACROSS THE
LWR CO VLY LATER TODAY. ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD TSTMS ALSO MAY OCCUR A
BIT LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WHERE
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SFC LOW WILL SUPPLY LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE AMIDST
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.

...LWR MS VLY THROUGH EARLY TUE...
MODEST WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP RECENTLY-REINFORCED DOME OF POLAR
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EPISODIC...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CLUSTERS
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM FAR E TX AND LA NEWD INTO PARTS OF AR AND MS.
ABSENCE OF IDENTIFIABLE UPR-LVL FEATURES TO ENHANCE UPLIFT...AND
LARGELY ANTICYCLONIC LWR-LVL ENVIRONMENT...SUGGEST MINIMAL RISK FOR
SVR WEATHER DESPITE PW BEING AOA 1.25 INCHES.

..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 03/02/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 021300
SWODY1
SPC AC 021258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SPORADIC THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM
NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS EASTWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AS WELL AS THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PATTERN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY SPLIT
FLOW EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER CA AND ADJOINING PAC WATERS...AS ONE
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION EFFECTIVELY REPLACES ANOTHER IN
SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH.  500-MB CYCLONE NOW CENTERED INVOF CHANNEL
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVOLVE INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH DURING NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...ACCELERATING EWD THEN NEWD ACROSS LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY AND REACHING WRN PORTIONS UT/CO BY 00Z.  THIS FEATURE THEN
SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER AND EJECT OVER CO ROCKIES BY 12Z.

THAT WILL OCCUR AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER COASTAL WATERS OF NRN CA/ORE -- DIGS
SSEWD DOWN CA COAST AND EVOLVES INTO CLOSED CYCLONE OFFSHORE NWRN
BAJA BY END OF PERIOD.  AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...SYNOPTIC-SCALE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS LOWER-MID
MS VALLEY.

AT SFC...WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WAS EVIDENT OVER NWRN
GULF...GENERALLY PARALLEL TO AND OFFSHORE TX/LA COAST THEN ESEWD
ACROSS NERN GULF TO SW FL...ACROSS S FL...ARCHING BACK NNEWD OVER
GULF STREAM OFFSHORE CAROLINAS.  EXCEPT FOR MESOBETA-SCALE SHIFTS
MAINLY OVER ATLC...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE LITTLE THROUGH PERIOD.
COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE NRN-STREAM PERTURBATION AND SURGE SEWD OUT
OF WRN CANADA ACROSS NRN PLAINS THROUGH PERIOD...BUT WITH NO IMPACT
ON TSTM POTENTIAL.

...SWRN CONUS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN TWO REGIMES
RELATED TO CA TROUGHING...WITH SOME OVERLAP SPATIALLY AS LEADING
TROUGH EJECTS AND TRAILING ONE ASSUMES ITS EARLIER POSITION.
1. FOREGOING WAA PLUME CURRENTLY FROM SERN NV SWD SHIFTS SLOWLY
EWD...WITH ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE AMIDST VERY WEAK CAPE.
WEAK TSTMS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE OVER 4-CORNERS REGION THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT AS THIS PLUME REACHES THAT AREA.
2. COLDER AIR ALOFT AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES BEHIND WAA PLUME.  THIS
REGIME WILL SPREAD ATOP AT LEAST MRGL MOISTURE TO YIELD SMALL BUT
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP BUOYANCY FOR OCNL TSTMS...RELATED TO LARGE-SCALE
LIFT/DCVA FIELDS OF EACH SHORTWAVE IN SUCCESSION OVER CENTRAL/SRN
CA.

...SERN CONUS...
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN BANDS OF ELEVATED WAA AND RELATED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC.  GIVEN ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ONLY GENTLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT
TO LFC IS EXPECTED...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE IN 200-1000 J/KG RANGE.
WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENSURE THAT ONLY SMALL
FRACTIONS OF TOTAL BUOYANCY ARE CONTAINED WITHIN ANY PART OF THERMAL
LAYER COLDER THAN -20 C.  AS SUCH...COVERAGE SHOULD BE BARELY
SUFFICIENT FOR OUTLOOK AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN NON-SVR.

..EDWARDS/GLEASON.. 03/02/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 021300
SWODY1
SPC AC 021258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SPORADIC THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM
NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS EASTWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AS WELL AS THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PATTERN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY SPLIT
FLOW EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER CA AND ADJOINING PAC WATERS...AS ONE
SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION EFFECTIVELY REPLACES ANOTHER IN
SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH.  500-MB CYCLONE NOW CENTERED INVOF CHANNEL
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO DEVOLVE INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH DURING NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...ACCELERATING EWD THEN NEWD ACROSS LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY AND REACHING WRN PORTIONS UT/CO BY 00Z.  THIS FEATURE THEN
SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER AND EJECT OVER CO ROCKIES BY 12Z.

THAT WILL OCCUR AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER COASTAL WATERS OF NRN CA/ORE -- DIGS
SSEWD DOWN CA COAST AND EVOLVES INTO CLOSED CYCLONE OFFSHORE NWRN
BAJA BY END OF PERIOD.  AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...SYNOPTIC-SCALE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS LOWER-MID
MS VALLEY.

AT SFC...WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WAS EVIDENT OVER NWRN
GULF...GENERALLY PARALLEL TO AND OFFSHORE TX/LA COAST THEN ESEWD
ACROSS NERN GULF TO SW FL...ACROSS S FL...ARCHING BACK NNEWD OVER
GULF STREAM OFFSHORE CAROLINAS.  EXCEPT FOR MESOBETA-SCALE SHIFTS
MAINLY OVER ATLC...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE LITTLE THROUGH PERIOD.
COLD FRONT WILL PRECEDE NRN-STREAM PERTURBATION AND SURGE SEWD OUT
OF WRN CANADA ACROSS NRN PLAINS THROUGH PERIOD...BUT WITH NO IMPACT
ON TSTM POTENTIAL.

...SWRN CONUS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN TWO REGIMES
RELATED TO CA TROUGHING...WITH SOME OVERLAP SPATIALLY AS LEADING
TROUGH EJECTS AND TRAILING ONE ASSUMES ITS EARLIER POSITION.
1. FOREGOING WAA PLUME CURRENTLY FROM SERN NV SWD SHIFTS SLOWLY
EWD...WITH ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE AMIDST VERY WEAK CAPE.
WEAK TSTMS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE OVER 4-CORNERS REGION THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT AS THIS PLUME REACHES THAT AREA.
2. COLDER AIR ALOFT AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES BEHIND WAA PLUME.  THIS
REGIME WILL SPREAD ATOP AT LEAST MRGL MOISTURE TO YIELD SMALL BUT
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP BUOYANCY FOR OCNL TSTMS...RELATED TO LARGE-SCALE
LIFT/DCVA FIELDS OF EACH SHORTWAVE IN SUCCESSION OVER CENTRAL/SRN
CA.

...SERN CONUS...
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN BANDS OF ELEVATED WAA AND RELATED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC.  GIVEN ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ONLY GENTLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT
TO LFC IS EXPECTED...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE IN 200-1000 J/KG RANGE.
WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENSURE THAT ONLY SMALL
FRACTIONS OF TOTAL BUOYANCY ARE CONTAINED WITHIN ANY PART OF THERMAL
LAYER COLDER THAN -20 C.  AS SUCH...COVERAGE SHOULD BE BARELY
SUFFICIENT FOR OUTLOOK AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN NON-SVR.

..EDWARDS/GLEASON.. 03/02/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 020830
SWODY3
SPC AC 020828

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND EXTREME
WESTERN FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE MID MS
VALLEY/OZARKS REGION.  MEANWHILE...A TROUGH...INITIALLY LOCATED OVER
NRN BAJA/NWRN SONORA...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT TRACKS ENEWD INTO
A CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.  AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXTENDING FROM ERN NY/PA THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...THEN WSWWD THROUGH NRN LA TO NRN OR
CENTRAL TX.  THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWD DURING DAY
3...MOVING OFF THE TX COAST AROUND 05/00Z...AND INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

...PARTS OF THE NWRN-CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOISTENING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH INITIAL STORMS TENDING TO BE MAINLY
ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS TX.  SURFACE HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF
LA/MS SHOULD RESULT IN THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY.  EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS SUPPORTING A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF POOR LAPSE
RATES/WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS TENDING TO VEER/WEAKEN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.

..PETERS.. 03/02/2015





000
ACUS03 KWNS 020830
SWODY3
SPC AC 020828

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND EXTREME
WESTERN FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE MID MS
VALLEY/OZARKS REGION.  MEANWHILE...A TROUGH...INITIALLY LOCATED OVER
NRN BAJA/NWRN SONORA...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT TRACKS ENEWD INTO
A CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.  AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXTENDING FROM ERN NY/PA THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...THEN WSWWD THROUGH NRN LA TO NRN OR
CENTRAL TX.  THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWD DURING DAY
3...MOVING OFF THE TX COAST AROUND 05/00Z...AND INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

...PARTS OF THE NWRN-CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOISTENING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH INITIAL STORMS TENDING TO BE MAINLY
ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS TX.  SURFACE HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF
LA/MS SHOULD RESULT IN THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY.  EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS SUPPORTING A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF POOR LAPSE
RATES/WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS TENDING TO VEER/WEAKEN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.

..PETERS.. 03/02/2015





000
ACUS03 KWNS 020830
SWODY3
SPC AC 020828

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND EXTREME
WESTERN FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE MID MS
VALLEY/OZARKS REGION.  MEANWHILE...A TROUGH...INITIALLY LOCATED OVER
NRN BAJA/NWRN SONORA...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT TRACKS ENEWD INTO
A CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.  AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXTENDING FROM ERN NY/PA THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...THEN WSWWD THROUGH NRN LA TO NRN OR
CENTRAL TX.  THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWD DURING DAY
3...MOVING OFF THE TX COAST AROUND 05/00Z...AND INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

...PARTS OF THE NWRN-CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOISTENING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH INITIAL STORMS TENDING TO BE MAINLY
ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS TX.  SURFACE HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF
LA/MS SHOULD RESULT IN THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY.  EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS SUPPORTING A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF POOR LAPSE
RATES/WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS TENDING TO VEER/WEAKEN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.

..PETERS.. 03/02/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 020830
SWODY3
SPC AC 020828

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND EXTREME
WESTERN FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD
THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE MID MS
VALLEY/OZARKS REGION.  MEANWHILE...A TROUGH...INITIALLY LOCATED OVER
NRN BAJA/NWRN SONORA...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT TRACKS ENEWD INTO
A CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.  AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...A
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EXTENDING FROM ERN NY/PA THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...THEN WSWWD THROUGH NRN LA TO NRN OR
CENTRAL TX.  THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWD DURING DAY
3...MOVING OFF THE TX COAST AROUND 05/00Z...AND INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.

...PARTS OF THE NWRN-CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MOISTENING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH INITIAL STORMS TENDING TO BE MAINLY
ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS TX.  SURFACE HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF
LA/MS SHOULD RESULT IN THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY.  EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS SUPPORTING A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF POOR LAPSE
RATES/WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS TENDING TO VEER/WEAKEN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.

..PETERS.. 03/02/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 020704
SWODY2
SPC AC 020703

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UTAH INTO
WESTERN COLORADO.

...SYNOPSIS...
SWLY MID-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
KS/OK INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES TO THE NERN STATES...AS A
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BAHAMAS/CARIBBEAN...AND A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN DURING DAY 2
AS IT TRACKS NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF WRN NEB INTO A
CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  MODELS ARE
TRENDING A LITTLE NWD WITH THE TRACK OF THIS TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY TUESDAY EVENING.  THIS NWD TRACK IS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EWD AND SWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE TRAILING
COLD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY/SRN
PLAINS...RESPECTIVELY.  THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL
IL/MO INTO CENTRAL OK TO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 04/00Z.  BY 12
WEDNESDAY...THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN NY/PA THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...THEN WSWWD THROUGH NRN LA TO NRN OR
CENTRAL TX.

...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF TN/KY...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE DUE TO MEAGER INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A GENERAL TSTM AREA.  ALTHOUGH
SSWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL AID IN MOISTENING THE WARM SECTOR FROM
THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
POOR LAPSE RATES...DUE IN PART TO WARMING 500-MB TEMPERATURES...WILL
HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.  DEEP-LAYER AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE ORGANIZED
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THE SPREAD INDICATED BY THE MODELS IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED REMAINS LOW...WITH
NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

...SRN AR/WRN LA INTO NRN/CENTRAL TX...
AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WAA ACROSS THIS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS SUGGESTS PARCELS LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT COULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW ELEVATED TSTMS.

...ERN UT/WRN CO...
COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING SEWD FROM ID TO ERN UT/WRN CO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON COULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TSTMS...AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN.

..PETERS.. 03/02/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 020704
SWODY2
SPC AC 020703

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UTAH INTO
WESTERN COLORADO.

...SYNOPSIS...
SWLY MID-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
KS/OK INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES TO THE NERN STATES...AS A
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BAHAMAS/CARIBBEAN...AND A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN DURING DAY 2
AS IT TRACKS NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF WRN NEB INTO A
CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  MODELS ARE
TRENDING A LITTLE NWD WITH THE TRACK OF THIS TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY TUESDAY EVENING.  THIS NWD TRACK IS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EWD AND SWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE TRAILING
COLD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY/SRN
PLAINS...RESPECTIVELY.  THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL
IL/MO INTO CENTRAL OK TO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 04/00Z.  BY 12
WEDNESDAY...THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN NY/PA THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...THEN WSWWD THROUGH NRN LA TO NRN OR
CENTRAL TX.

...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF TN/KY...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE DUE TO MEAGER INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A GENERAL TSTM AREA.  ALTHOUGH
SSWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL AID IN MOISTENING THE WARM SECTOR FROM
THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
POOR LAPSE RATES...DUE IN PART TO WARMING 500-MB TEMPERATURES...WILL
HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.  DEEP-LAYER AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE ORGANIZED
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THE SPREAD INDICATED BY THE MODELS IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED REMAINS LOW...WITH
NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

...SRN AR/WRN LA INTO NRN/CENTRAL TX...
AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WAA ACROSS THIS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS SUGGESTS PARCELS LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT COULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW ELEVATED TSTMS.

...ERN UT/WRN CO...
COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING SEWD FROM ID TO ERN UT/WRN CO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON COULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TSTMS...AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN.

..PETERS.. 03/02/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 020704
SWODY2
SPC AC 020703

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UTAH INTO
WESTERN COLORADO.

...SYNOPSIS...
SWLY MID-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
KS/OK INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES TO THE NERN STATES...AS A
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BAHAMAS/CARIBBEAN...AND A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN DURING DAY 2
AS IT TRACKS NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF WRN NEB INTO A
CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  MODELS ARE
TRENDING A LITTLE NWD WITH THE TRACK OF THIS TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY TUESDAY EVENING.  THIS NWD TRACK IS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EWD AND SWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE TRAILING
COLD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY/SRN
PLAINS...RESPECTIVELY.  THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL
IL/MO INTO CENTRAL OK TO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 04/00Z.  BY 12
WEDNESDAY...THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN NY/PA THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...THEN WSWWD THROUGH NRN LA TO NRN OR
CENTRAL TX.

...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF TN/KY...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE DUE TO MEAGER INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A GENERAL TSTM AREA.  ALTHOUGH
SSWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL AID IN MOISTENING THE WARM SECTOR FROM
THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
POOR LAPSE RATES...DUE IN PART TO WARMING 500-MB TEMPERATURES...WILL
HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.  DEEP-LAYER AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE ORGANIZED
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THE SPREAD INDICATED BY THE MODELS IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED REMAINS LOW...WITH
NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

...SRN AR/WRN LA INTO NRN/CENTRAL TX...
AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WAA ACROSS THIS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS SUGGESTS PARCELS LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT COULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW ELEVATED TSTMS.

...ERN UT/WRN CO...
COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING SEWD FROM ID TO ERN UT/WRN CO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON COULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TSTMS...AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN.

..PETERS.. 03/02/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 020704
SWODY2
SPC AC 020703

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UTAH INTO
WESTERN COLORADO.

...SYNOPSIS...
SWLY MID-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
KS/OK INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES TO THE NERN STATES...AS A
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BAHAMAS/CARIBBEAN...AND A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN DURING DAY 2
AS IT TRACKS NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF WRN NEB INTO A
CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  MODELS ARE
TRENDING A LITTLE NWD WITH THE TRACK OF THIS TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY TUESDAY EVENING.  THIS NWD TRACK IS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EWD AND SWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE TRAILING
COLD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY/SRN
PLAINS...RESPECTIVELY.  THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL
IL/MO INTO CENTRAL OK TO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 04/00Z.  BY 12
WEDNESDAY...THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN NY/PA THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...THEN WSWWD THROUGH NRN LA TO NRN OR
CENTRAL TX.

...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF TN/KY...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE DUE TO MEAGER INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A GENERAL TSTM AREA.  ALTHOUGH
SSWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL AID IN MOISTENING THE WARM SECTOR FROM
THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
POOR LAPSE RATES...DUE IN PART TO WARMING 500-MB TEMPERATURES...WILL
HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.  DEEP-LAYER AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE ORGANIZED
STORMS.  HOWEVER...THE SPREAD INDICATED BY THE MODELS IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED REMAINS LOW...WITH
NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

...SRN AR/WRN LA INTO NRN/CENTRAL TX...
AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WAA ACROSS THIS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS SUGGESTS PARCELS LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT COULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A
FEW ELEVATED TSTMS.

...ERN UT/WRN CO...
COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING SEWD FROM ID TO ERN UT/WRN CO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON COULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TSTMS...AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN.

..PETERS.. 03/02/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 020533
SWODY1
SPC AC 020530

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AS WELL AS THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS
ON MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.


...CNTRL/SRN CA AND THE CO RIVER VALLEY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS THE PERSISTENCE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED COLD TEMPS ALOFT COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING TO PROMOTE WEAK BUOYANCY ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...THE COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE ALOFT MAY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CONVECTION.

...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
AS A VORTICITY MAX ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND TRANSLATES
EWD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS...AN ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
THAT THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACT UPON SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL AL...
AS A WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE PASSES THE REGION LATER IN THE
DAY...MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH WEAK
ELEVATED BUOYANCY TO PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

..PICCA.. 03/02/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 020533
SWODY1
SPC AC 020530

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AS WELL AS THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS
ON MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.


...CNTRL/SRN CA AND THE CO RIVER VALLEY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS THE PERSISTENCE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED COLD TEMPS ALOFT COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING TO PROMOTE WEAK BUOYANCY ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...THE COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE ALOFT MAY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CONVECTION.

...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
AS A VORTICITY MAX ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND TRANSLATES
EWD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS...AN ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
THAT THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACT UPON SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL AL...
AS A WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE PASSES THE REGION LATER IN THE
DAY...MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH WEAK
ELEVATED BUOYANCY TO PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

..PICCA.. 03/02/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 020533
SWODY1
SPC AC 020530

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AS WELL AS THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS
ON MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.


...CNTRL/SRN CA AND THE CO RIVER VALLEY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS THE PERSISTENCE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED COLD TEMPS ALOFT COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING TO PROMOTE WEAK BUOYANCY ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...THE COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE ALOFT MAY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CONVECTION.

...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
AS A VORTICITY MAX ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND TRANSLATES
EWD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS...AN ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
THAT THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACT UPON SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL AL...
AS A WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE PASSES THE REGION LATER IN THE
DAY...MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH WEAK
ELEVATED BUOYANCY TO PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

..PICCA.. 03/02/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 020533
SWODY1
SPC AC 020530

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AS WELL AS THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS
ON MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.


...CNTRL/SRN CA AND THE CO RIVER VALLEY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS THE PERSISTENCE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED COLD TEMPS ALOFT COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING TO PROMOTE WEAK BUOYANCY ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS...THE COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE ALOFT MAY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER CONVECTION.

...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
AS A VORTICITY MAX ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH AND TRANSLATES
EWD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS...AN ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
THAT THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACT UPON SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL AL...
AS A WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSE PASSES THE REGION LATER IN THE
DAY...MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH WEAK
ELEVATED BUOYANCY TO PROMOTE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

..PICCA.. 03/02/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 020053
SWODY1
SPC AC 020051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. OTHER SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM LOUISIANA INTO
MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA.

...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

00Z RAOBS FROM NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE CHARLES SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY
ABOVE A NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

...CNTRL THROUGH SCNTRL CA...

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER CNTRL
AND SCNTRL CA WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT AND ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION EXISTS. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
UNDERGO A GRADUAL DECREASE WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

..DIAL.. 03/02/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 020053
SWODY1
SPC AC 020051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. OTHER SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM LOUISIANA INTO
MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA.

...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

00Z RAOBS FROM NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE CHARLES SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY
ABOVE A NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

...CNTRL THROUGH SCNTRL CA...

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER CNTRL
AND SCNTRL CA WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT AND ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION EXISTS. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
UNDERGO A GRADUAL DECREASE WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

..DIAL.. 03/02/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 020053
SWODY1
SPC AC 020051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. OTHER SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM LOUISIANA INTO
MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA.

...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

00Z RAOBS FROM NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE CHARLES SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY
ABOVE A NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

...CNTRL THROUGH SCNTRL CA...

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER CNTRL
AND SCNTRL CA WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT AND ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH AN UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION EXISTS. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
UNDERGO A GRADUAL DECREASE WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

..DIAL.. 03/02/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 011952
SWODY1
SPC AC 011950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY TODAY OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.

NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

..BROYLES.. 03/01/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015/

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LWR 48...DOWNSTREAM FROM
AMPLIFIED E PACIFIC RIDGE. ELONGATED CA/FAR E PACIFIC LOW EXPECTED
TO EDGE ONLY SLOWLY SSE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHEN SYSTEM
SHOULD TURN AND ACCELERATE NE IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW
OVER THE BC CST. E OF THE CA SYSTEM...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM
THE PLNS TO THE E CST. HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND OVER THE SRN PLNS
LATER IN THE PERIOD AS NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE NRN PLNS
CONTINUES E TO THE LWR GRT LKS.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CNTRL/SRN FL AND FAR SE TX/PARTS OF
LA...SHALLOW ARCTIC OR MODIFIED POLAR AIR WILL LINGER OVER MOST
AREAS E OF THE RCKYS. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY...BUT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT WITH TIME BY SEWD PROGRESSION OF SHALLOW
COOL-AIR SURGE NOW EVOLVING OVER THE SRN PLNS. SIMILARLY IN CNTRL
FL...OVERALL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL. WHILE DAYTIME MIXING
MAY PERMIT A SLIGHT NWD DRIFT TO OLD W-E FRONT STALLED OVER THE
CNTRL PART OF THE STATE...OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

...CNTRL FL TODAY...
MODERATE DAYTIME HEATING OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES MAY YIELD SCTD AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND PERHAPS SRN FL. WEAK CIN AND ABSENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS REGION SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY
WILL REQUIRE SOME DEGREE OF CONVERGENCE TO BE REALIZED...WITH THE
LATTER LIKELY BEING MAXIMIZED NEAR INTERSECTION OF OLD W-E FRONT AND
SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER THE W CNTRL PART OF THE STATE. WHILE PW
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SUSTAINED WIND THREAT.

...CNTRL/SRN CA TODAY/TNGT...
THE AREA OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT/STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH UPR
LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFF THE SRN CA CST TODAY AS UPR LOW PIVOTS
SLOWLY SSE ACROSS REGION. BUT MODERATE TO STRONG SFC HEATING BENEATH
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS...AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...SHOULD SUPPORT
WDLY SCTD AFTN SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN CA. ALTHOUGH
SMALL HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY SOME CELLS...BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAK
/AROUND 250 J/KG MUCAPE/ AND DEEP SHEAR MODEST GIVEN PROXIMITY OF
TROUGH. THUS...SUSTAINED SVR WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

...E TX/LWR MS VLY THROUGH EARLY MON...
OTHER THAN A SLIGHT WEAKENING AND AFOREMENTIONED UNDERCUTTING...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN ELEVATED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REGIME NOW IN PROGRESS OVER E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY. COUPLED WITH
ABSENCE OF MID- AND UPR-LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE PROSPECTS FOR
STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION APPEAR MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...SPORADIC
CLUSTERS OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST AND SPREAD
SLIGHTLY NEWD WITH TIME.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 011952
SWODY1
SPC AC 011950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY TODAY OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.

NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

..BROYLES.. 03/01/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015/

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LWR 48...DOWNSTREAM FROM
AMPLIFIED E PACIFIC RIDGE. ELONGATED CA/FAR E PACIFIC LOW EXPECTED
TO EDGE ONLY SLOWLY SSE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHEN SYSTEM
SHOULD TURN AND ACCELERATE NE IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW
OVER THE BC CST. E OF THE CA SYSTEM...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM
THE PLNS TO THE E CST. HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND OVER THE SRN PLNS
LATER IN THE PERIOD AS NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE NRN PLNS
CONTINUES E TO THE LWR GRT LKS.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CNTRL/SRN FL AND FAR SE TX/PARTS OF
LA...SHALLOW ARCTIC OR MODIFIED POLAR AIR WILL LINGER OVER MOST
AREAS E OF THE RCKYS. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY...BUT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT WITH TIME BY SEWD PROGRESSION OF SHALLOW
COOL-AIR SURGE NOW EVOLVING OVER THE SRN PLNS. SIMILARLY IN CNTRL
FL...OVERALL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL. WHILE DAYTIME MIXING
MAY PERMIT A SLIGHT NWD DRIFT TO OLD W-E FRONT STALLED OVER THE
CNTRL PART OF THE STATE...OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

...CNTRL FL TODAY...
MODERATE DAYTIME HEATING OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES MAY YIELD SCTD AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND PERHAPS SRN FL. WEAK CIN AND ABSENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS REGION SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY
WILL REQUIRE SOME DEGREE OF CONVERGENCE TO BE REALIZED...WITH THE
LATTER LIKELY BEING MAXIMIZED NEAR INTERSECTION OF OLD W-E FRONT AND
SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER THE W CNTRL PART OF THE STATE. WHILE PW
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SUSTAINED WIND THREAT.

...CNTRL/SRN CA TODAY/TNGT...
THE AREA OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT/STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH UPR
LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFF THE SRN CA CST TODAY AS UPR LOW PIVOTS
SLOWLY SSE ACROSS REGION. BUT MODERATE TO STRONG SFC HEATING BENEATH
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS...AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...SHOULD SUPPORT
WDLY SCTD AFTN SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN CA. ALTHOUGH
SMALL HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY SOME CELLS...BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAK
/AROUND 250 J/KG MUCAPE/ AND DEEP SHEAR MODEST GIVEN PROXIMITY OF
TROUGH. THUS...SUSTAINED SVR WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

...E TX/LWR MS VLY THROUGH EARLY MON...
OTHER THAN A SLIGHT WEAKENING AND AFOREMENTIONED UNDERCUTTING...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN ELEVATED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REGIME NOW IN PROGRESS OVER E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY. COUPLED WITH
ABSENCE OF MID- AND UPR-LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE PROSPECTS FOR
STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION APPEAR MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...SPORADIC
CLUSTERS OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST AND SPREAD
SLIGHTLY NEWD WITH TIME.






000
ACUS11 KWNS 011858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011857
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-020000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST COAST

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 011857Z - 020000Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
LONG ISLAND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH SNOWFALL RATES OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR. A
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
DE...CNTRL/SRN NJ...AND FAR ERN PA. FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY TOP 0.05
INCH PER HOUR WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20
INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER...POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE MARYLAND WITH MODERATE
SNOW NEWD ACROSS NJ...LONG ISLAND...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS -- ASIDE FROM A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID/UPPER WIND
SPEEDS -- WITH PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WAA FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AMIDST GRADUALLY WARMING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...A TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO MOSTLY
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER DE AND MOST OF NJ WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONCE THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY
TOP 0.05 INCH PER HOUR. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PERSISTENCE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS --
AT OR ABOVE 0.25 INCH -- IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER
TO 0.15 INCH APPEAR MORE LIKELY.

FARTHER N /LONG ISLAND...SRN NEW ENGLAND/...SNOWFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT
WAA INCREASE. SNOWFALL RATES WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH
PER HOUR BUT THE POTENTIAL EXIST RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER
HOUR WITHIN ANY BANDS THAT SET UP.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40927194 40417364 39627416 38577533 39007614 39837655
            40747575 41357477 42047257 41927052 40927194





000
ACUS11 KWNS 011858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011857
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-020000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST COAST

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 011857Z - 020000Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
LONG ISLAND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH SNOWFALL RATES OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR. A
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
DE...CNTRL/SRN NJ...AND FAR ERN PA. FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY TOP 0.05
INCH PER HOUR WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20
INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER...POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE MARYLAND WITH MODERATE
SNOW NEWD ACROSS NJ...LONG ISLAND...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS -- ASIDE FROM A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID/UPPER WIND
SPEEDS -- WITH PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WAA FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AMIDST GRADUALLY WARMING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...A TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO MOSTLY
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER DE AND MOST OF NJ WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONCE THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY
TOP 0.05 INCH PER HOUR. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PERSISTENCE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS --
AT OR ABOVE 0.25 INCH -- IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER
TO 0.15 INCH APPEAR MORE LIKELY.

FARTHER N /LONG ISLAND...SRN NEW ENGLAND/...SNOWFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT
WAA INCREASE. SNOWFALL RATES WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH
PER HOUR BUT THE POTENTIAL EXIST RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER
HOUR WITHIN ANY BANDS THAT SET UP.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40927194 40417364 39627416 38577533 39007614 39837655
            40747575 41357477 42047257 41927052 40927194






000
ACUS11 KWNS 011858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011857
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-020000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST COAST

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 011857Z - 020000Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
LONG ISLAND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH SNOWFALL RATES OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR. A
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
DE...CNTRL/SRN NJ...AND FAR ERN PA. FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY TOP 0.05
INCH PER HOUR WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20
INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER...POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE MARYLAND WITH MODERATE
SNOW NEWD ACROSS NJ...LONG ISLAND...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS -- ASIDE FROM A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID/UPPER WIND
SPEEDS -- WITH PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WAA FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AMIDST GRADUALLY WARMING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...A TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO MOSTLY
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER DE AND MOST OF NJ WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONCE THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY
TOP 0.05 INCH PER HOUR. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PERSISTENCE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS --
AT OR ABOVE 0.25 INCH -- IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER
TO 0.15 INCH APPEAR MORE LIKELY.

FARTHER N /LONG ISLAND...SRN NEW ENGLAND/...SNOWFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT
WAA INCREASE. SNOWFALL RATES WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH
PER HOUR BUT THE POTENTIAL EXIST RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER
HOUR WITHIN ANY BANDS THAT SET UP.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40927194 40417364 39627416 38577533 39007614 39837655
            40747575 41357477 42047257 41927052 40927194





000
ACUS11 KWNS 011858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011857
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-020000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST COAST

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 011857Z - 020000Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
LONG ISLAND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH SNOWFALL RATES OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR. A
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
DE...CNTRL/SRN NJ...AND FAR ERN PA. FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY TOP 0.05
INCH PER HOUR WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20
INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER...POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE MARYLAND WITH MODERATE
SNOW NEWD ACROSS NJ...LONG ISLAND...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS -- ASIDE FROM A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID/UPPER WIND
SPEEDS -- WITH PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WAA FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AMIDST GRADUALLY WARMING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...A TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO MOSTLY
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER DE AND MOST OF NJ WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONCE THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY
TOP 0.05 INCH PER HOUR. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PERSISTENCE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS --
AT OR ABOVE 0.25 INCH -- IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER
TO 0.15 INCH APPEAR MORE LIKELY.

FARTHER N /LONG ISLAND...SRN NEW ENGLAND/...SNOWFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT
WAA INCREASE. SNOWFALL RATES WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH
PER HOUR BUT THE POTENTIAL EXIST RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER
HOUR WITHIN ANY BANDS THAT SET UP.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40927194 40417364 39627416 38577533 39007614 39837655
            40747575 41357477 42047257 41927052 40927194





000
ACUS11 KWNS 011858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011857
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-020000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST COAST

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 011857Z - 020000Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
LONG ISLAND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH SNOWFALL RATES OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR. A
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
DE...CNTRL/SRN NJ...AND FAR ERN PA. FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY TOP 0.05
INCH PER HOUR WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20
INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER...POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE MARYLAND WITH MODERATE
SNOW NEWD ACROSS NJ...LONG ISLAND...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS -- ASIDE FROM A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID/UPPER WIND
SPEEDS -- WITH PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WAA FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AMIDST GRADUALLY WARMING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...A TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO MOSTLY
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER DE AND MOST OF NJ WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONCE THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY
TOP 0.05 INCH PER HOUR. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PERSISTENCE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS --
AT OR ABOVE 0.25 INCH -- IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER
TO 0.15 INCH APPEAR MORE LIKELY.

FARTHER N /LONG ISLAND...SRN NEW ENGLAND/...SNOWFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT
WAA INCREASE. SNOWFALL RATES WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH
PER HOUR BUT THE POTENTIAL EXIST RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER
HOUR WITHIN ANY BANDS THAT SET UP.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40927194 40417364 39627416 38577533 39007614 39837655
            40747575 41357477 42047257 41927052 40927194






000
ACUS11 KWNS 011858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011857
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-020000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0110
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST COAST

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 011857Z - 020000Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
LONG ISLAND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH SNOWFALL RATES OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR. A
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
DE...CNTRL/SRN NJ...AND FAR ERN PA. FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY TOP 0.05
INCH PER HOUR WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.10 TO 0.20
INCH...LOCALLY HIGHER...POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATE AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE MARYLAND WITH MODERATE
SNOW NEWD ACROSS NJ...LONG ISLAND...AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS -- ASIDE FROM A GENERAL INCREASE IN MID/UPPER WIND
SPEEDS -- WITH PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL WAA FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AMIDST GRADUALLY WARMING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH...A TRANSITION FROM SNOW/SLEET TO MOSTLY
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER DE AND MOST OF NJ WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. ONCE THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...FREEZING RAIN RATES MAY
TOP 0.05 INCH PER HOUR. GIVEN THE EXPECTED PERSISTENCE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS --
AT OR ABOVE 0.25 INCH -- IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS CLOSER
TO 0.15 INCH APPEAR MORE LIKELY.

FARTHER N /LONG ISLAND...SRN NEW ENGLAND/...SNOWFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT
WAA INCREASE. SNOWFALL RATES WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH
PER HOUR BUT THE POTENTIAL EXIST RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER
HOUR WITHIN ANY BANDS THAT SET UP.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40927194 40417364 39627416 38577533 39007614 39837655
            40747575 41357477 42047257 41927052 40927194





000
ACUS02 KWNS 011706
SWODY2
SPC AC 011705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING ALONG
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND IN WESTERN ARIZONA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA WILL MOVE ONSHORE ON
MONDAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND ROCKIES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE COAST OF SRN CA DUE TO STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY
ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND WRN AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FURTHER TO
THE EAST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE ARKLATEX MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY. DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY...A SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 03/01/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 011706
SWODY2
SPC AC 011705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING ALONG
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND IN WESTERN ARIZONA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF SRN CA WILL MOVE ONSHORE ON
MONDAY AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND ROCKIES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE COAST OF SRN CA DUE TO STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY
ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND WRN AZ MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FURTHER TO
THE EAST...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE ARKLATEX MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY. DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY...A SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 03/01/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 011631
SWODY1
SPC AC 011629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY TODAY OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LWR 48...DOWNSTREAM FROM
AMPLIFIED E PACIFIC RIDGE. ELONGATED CA/FAR E PACIFIC LOW EXPECTED
TO EDGE ONLY SLOWLY SSE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHEN SYSTEM
SHOULD TURN AND ACCELERATE NE IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW
OVER THE BC CST. E OF THE CA SYSTEM...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM
THE PLNS TO THE E CST. HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND OVER THE SRN PLNS
LATER IN THE PERIOD AS NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE NRN PLNS
CONTINUES E TO THE LWR GRT LKS.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CNTRL/SRN FL AND FAR SE TX/PARTS OF
LA...SHALLOW ARCTIC OR MODIFIED POLAR AIR WILL LINGER OVER MOST
AREAS E OF THE RCKYS. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY...BUT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT WITH TIME BY SEWD PROGRESSION OF SHALLOW
COOL-AIR SURGE NOW EVOLVING OVER THE SRN PLNS. SIMILARLY IN CNTRL
FL...OVERALL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL. WHILE DAYTIME MIXING
MAY PERMIT A SLIGHT NWD DRIFT TO OLD W-E FRONT STALLED OVER THE
CNTRL PART OF THE STATE...OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

...CNTRL FL TODAY...
MODERATE DAYTIME HEATING OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES MAY YIELD SCTD AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND PERHAPS SRN FL. WEAK CIN AND ABSENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS REGION SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY
WILL REQUIRE SOME DEGREE OF CONVERGENCE TO BE REALIZED...WITH THE
LATTER LIKELY BEING MAXIMIZED NEAR INTERSECTION OF OLD W-E FRONT AND
SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER THE W CNTRL PART OF THE STATE. WHILE PW
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SUSTAINED WIND THREAT.

...CNTRL/SRN CA TODAY/TNGT...
THE AREA OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT/STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH UPR
LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFF THE SRN CA CST TODAY AS UPR LOW PIVOTS
SLOWLY SSE ACROSS REGION. BUT MODERATE TO STRONG SFC HEATING BENEATH
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS...AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...SHOULD SUPPORT
WDLY SCTD AFTN SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN CA. ALTHOUGH
SMALL HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY SOME CELLS...BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAK
/AROUND 250 J/KG MUCAPE/ AND DEEP SHEAR MODEST GIVEN PROXIMITY OF
TROUGH. THUS...SUSTAINED SVR WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

...E TX/LWR MS VLY THROUGH EARLY MON...
OTHER THAN A SLIGHT WEAKENING AND AFOREMENTIONED UNDERCUTTING...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN ELEVATED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REGIME NOW IN PROGRESS OVER E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY. COUPLED WITH
ABSENCE OF MID- AND UPR-LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE PROSPECTS FOR
STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION APPEAR MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...SPORADIC
CLUSTERS OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST AND SPREAD
SLIGHTLY NEWD WITH TIME.

..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 03/01/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 011631
SWODY1
SPC AC 011629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY TODAY OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LWR 48...DOWNSTREAM FROM
AMPLIFIED E PACIFIC RIDGE. ELONGATED CA/FAR E PACIFIC LOW EXPECTED
TO EDGE ONLY SLOWLY SSE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHEN SYSTEM
SHOULD TURN AND ACCELERATE NE IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW
OVER THE BC CST. E OF THE CA SYSTEM...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM
THE PLNS TO THE E CST. HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND OVER THE SRN PLNS
LATER IN THE PERIOD AS NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE NRN PLNS
CONTINUES E TO THE LWR GRT LKS.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CNTRL/SRN FL AND FAR SE TX/PARTS OF
LA...SHALLOW ARCTIC OR MODIFIED POLAR AIR WILL LINGER OVER MOST
AREAS E OF THE RCKYS. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY...BUT WILL BE
INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT WITH TIME BY SEWD PROGRESSION OF SHALLOW
COOL-AIR SURGE NOW EVOLVING OVER THE SRN PLNS. SIMILARLY IN CNTRL
FL...OVERALL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL. WHILE DAYTIME MIXING
MAY PERMIT A SLIGHT NWD DRIFT TO OLD W-E FRONT STALLED OVER THE
CNTRL PART OF THE STATE...OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
UNCHANGED.

...CNTRL FL TODAY...
MODERATE DAYTIME HEATING OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES MAY YIELD SCTD AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND PERHAPS SRN FL. WEAK CIN AND ABSENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS REGION SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY
WILL REQUIRE SOME DEGREE OF CONVERGENCE TO BE REALIZED...WITH THE
LATTER LIKELY BEING MAXIMIZED NEAR INTERSECTION OF OLD W-E FRONT AND
SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER THE W CNTRL PART OF THE STATE. WHILE PW
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SUSTAINED WIND THREAT.

...CNTRL/SRN CA TODAY/TNGT...
THE AREA OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT/STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH UPR
LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFF THE SRN CA CST TODAY AS UPR LOW PIVOTS
SLOWLY SSE ACROSS REGION. BUT MODERATE TO STRONG SFC HEATING BENEATH
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS...AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...SHOULD SUPPORT
WDLY SCTD AFTN SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN CA. ALTHOUGH
SMALL HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY SOME CELLS...BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAK
/AROUND 250 J/KG MUCAPE/ AND DEEP SHEAR MODEST GIVEN PROXIMITY OF
TROUGH. THUS...SUSTAINED SVR WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

...E TX/LWR MS VLY THROUGH EARLY MON...
OTHER THAN A SLIGHT WEAKENING AND AFOREMENTIONED UNDERCUTTING...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN ELEVATED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
REGIME NOW IN PROGRESS OVER E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY. COUPLED WITH
ABSENCE OF MID- AND UPR-LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE PROSPECTS FOR
STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION APPEAR MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...SPORADIC
CLUSTERS OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST AND SPREAD
SLIGHTLY NEWD WITH TIME.

..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 03/01/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 011343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011343
MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-011715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N-CNTRL NC / S-CNTRL AND E-CNTRL VA /
DELMARVA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 011343Z - 011715Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN RATES PRIMARILY RANGING FROM 0.05-0.10 INCH
PER 3 HOURS ARE PROBABLE THROUGH 16-17Z.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROKEN-PRECIP SHIELD
ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT NEWD INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA FROM N-CNTRL NC NWD IS AOB 32 DEG F
EXCEPT ALONG NEAR SERN VA COAST WHERE THE INFILTRATION OF THE MARINE
AIR MASS HAS LED TO TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.  THE 12Z GSO RAOB
SHOWED A MELTING LAYER ATOP A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING NEAR-SURFACE
LAYER AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS N-CNTRL NC SHOW ONLY SLIGHT
WARMING AT THE SURFACE THROUGH 16Z.  AS A RESULT...A CONTINUATION OF
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED.  FARTHER N...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE
POLEWARD MOVEMENT OF HIGHER PW PER NC/SERN VA GPS PW DATA WILL ACT
TO SATURATE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVER DELMARVA.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL FAVOR SURFACE TEMPS
BELOW FREEZING AND SUPPORT MAINLY A FREEZING RAIN P-TYPE AS THE
LAYER AROUND H85 WARMS.

..SMITH.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   36217980 38407741 39027572 38567514 36897704 35787870
            36217980





000
ACUS11 KWNS 011343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011343
MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-011715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N-CNTRL NC / S-CNTRL AND E-CNTRL VA /
DELMARVA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 011343Z - 011715Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN RATES PRIMARILY RANGING FROM 0.05-0.10 INCH
PER 3 HOURS ARE PROBABLE THROUGH 16-17Z.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROKEN-PRECIP SHIELD
ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT NEWD INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA FROM N-CNTRL NC NWD IS AOB 32 DEG F
EXCEPT ALONG NEAR SERN VA COAST WHERE THE INFILTRATION OF THE MARINE
AIR MASS HAS LED TO TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.  THE 12Z GSO RAOB
SHOWED A MELTING LAYER ATOP A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING NEAR-SURFACE
LAYER AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS N-CNTRL NC SHOW ONLY SLIGHT
WARMING AT THE SURFACE THROUGH 16Z.  AS A RESULT...A CONTINUATION OF
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED.  FARTHER N...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE
POLEWARD MOVEMENT OF HIGHER PW PER NC/SERN VA GPS PW DATA WILL ACT
TO SATURATE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVER DELMARVA.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL FAVOR SURFACE TEMPS
BELOW FREEZING AND SUPPORT MAINLY A FREEZING RAIN P-TYPE AS THE
LAYER AROUND H85 WARMS.

..SMITH.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   36217980 38407741 39027572 38567514 36897704 35787870
            36217980





000
ACUS11 KWNS 011343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011343
MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-011715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0109
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N-CNTRL NC / S-CNTRL AND E-CNTRL VA /
DELMARVA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 011343Z - 011715Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN RATES PRIMARILY RANGING FROM 0.05-0.10 INCH
PER 3 HOURS ARE PROBABLE THROUGH 16-17Z.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROKEN-PRECIP SHIELD
ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT NEWD INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA FROM N-CNTRL NC NWD IS AOB 32 DEG F
EXCEPT ALONG NEAR SERN VA COAST WHERE THE INFILTRATION OF THE MARINE
AIR MASS HAS LED TO TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.  THE 12Z GSO RAOB
SHOWED A MELTING LAYER ATOP A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING NEAR-SURFACE
LAYER AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS N-CNTRL NC SHOW ONLY SLIGHT
WARMING AT THE SURFACE THROUGH 16Z.  AS A RESULT...A CONTINUATION OF
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED.  FARTHER N...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE
POLEWARD MOVEMENT OF HIGHER PW PER NC/SERN VA GPS PW DATA WILL ACT
TO SATURATE THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVER DELMARVA.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL FAVOR SURFACE TEMPS
BELOW FREEZING AND SUPPORT MAINLY A FREEZING RAIN P-TYPE AS THE
LAYER AROUND H85 WARMS.

..SMITH.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   36217980 38407741 39027572 38567514 36897704 35787870
            36217980






000
ACUS01 KWNS 011257
SWODY1
SPC AC 011255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...FROM PARTS OF ARKANSAS
AND MISSISSIPPI TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ALOFT THROUGH
PERIOD...AS TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER SRN PAC COAST AND GREAT BASIN.
LEADING PERTURBATION -- NOW MANIFEST AS ELLIPTICAL CYCLONE WITH
SW-NE LONG AXIS OVER NV AND S-CENTRAL CA AND ADJOINING PAC -- IS
FCST TO DRIFT SEWD WHILE REORIENTING TOWARD LESS POSITIVE TILT.
THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME OPEN-WAVE IN CHARACTER OVER SRN CA NEAR END
OF PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER NWRN BC -- DIGS SEWD TO COASTAL PAC NW.
MEANWHILE...NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER DAKOTAS AND NERN WY
WILL ACCELERATE EWD OVER UPPER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING...REACHING
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z.

AT SFC...12Z ANALYSIS SHOWED QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL-WAVE LOW
OFFSHORE TX COASTAL BEND W OF MARINE STATION KBBF...N OF BUOY 42020
AND E OF CRP...WITH QUASISTATIONARY FRONT SWD ACROSS EXTREME WRN
GULF WATERS.  WARM FRONT WAS DRAWN ESEWD ACROSS NRN GULF TO S
FL...ARCHING NWD OVER GULF STREAM AND OFFSHORE SC.  SECONDARY/WEAKER
WARM-FRONTAL ZONE WAS ANALYZED FROM LOW NEWD ACROSS NRN LA AND MID
TN.  WRN GULF FRONTAL SEGMENT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NWD TO NEAR LA
COAST...WHILE PORTION NEAR FL SHIFTS WWD/NWWD ACROSS ERN/SRN FL
PENINSULA TODAY.

...CENTRAL FL...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AS
CONTINUATION OF LOW-LEVEL DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND CONVERGENCE
JUXTAPOSE INVOF OLD FRONTAL ZONE AND SEA-BREEZE.  ACTIVITY MAY BE
GREATER IN COVERAGE NEAR I-75 CORRIDOR THAN INVOF E COAST AS
CONVERGENCE/CONVECTIVE REGIME SHIFTS WWD DURING MOST BUOYANT WINDOW
OF TIME THIS AFTN.  MLCAPE ONLY IN 700-1200 J/KG RANGE...WEAK
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND SHALLOWNESS OF MOIST LAYER NEAR SFC SUGGEST
SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE TOO MINIMAL/DISORGANIZED FOR AOA 5% WIND/HAIL
PROBABILITIES.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...WRN GULF COAST...
SPORADIC TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT PERIOD...INITIALLY NEAR GULF
COAST WITH GRADUAL EXPANSION INLAND/NEWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY OVER
TIME.  HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE FCST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGHOUT PERIOD AS GREAT LAKES TROUGH PASSES WELL N AND NNE OF
AREA...AND AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER ROCKIES E OF CA PERTURBATION.
AS SUCH...MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MINUSCULE AT
BEST...AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLGT MID/UPPER-LEVEL PROFILE
WARMING OVER AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  AS SUCH...DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES
ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN ONLY MRGLLY UNSTABLE...WITH
WAA AND CONCURRENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTRIBUTING JUST ENOUGH
THETAE TO YIELD BUOYANT PROFILES ACROSS MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYERS...AS
EVIDENT IN 12Z LCH RAOB.  ELEVATED MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT
THUNDER POTENTIAL.

...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN CA...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY INVOF
TROUGH AND RELATED POCKETS OF DCVA/COOLING ALOFT...WHERE LAPSE RATES
ARE OPTIMALLY STEEPENED.  MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 250 J/KG IN
MOST AREAS...BUT CAN EXTEND WELL INTO THERMAL LAYERS SUPPORTING LTG
GENERATION.  ISOLATED OVERNIGHT TSTMS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF
COASTAL SRN CA AS PERTURBATION ALOFT AND RELATED COLD-CORE
DESTABILIZATION/WEAK-CINH REGIME SHIFT SEWD.

..EDWARDS/GLEASON.. 03/01/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 011257
SWODY1
SPC AC 011255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...FROM PARTS OF ARKANSAS
AND MISSISSIPPI TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ALOFT THROUGH
PERIOD...AS TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER SRN PAC COAST AND GREAT BASIN.
LEADING PERTURBATION -- NOW MANIFEST AS ELLIPTICAL CYCLONE WITH
SW-NE LONG AXIS OVER NV AND S-CENTRAL CA AND ADJOINING PAC -- IS
FCST TO DRIFT SEWD WHILE REORIENTING TOWARD LESS POSITIVE TILT.
THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME OPEN-WAVE IN CHARACTER OVER SRN CA NEAR END
OF PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER NWRN BC -- DIGS SEWD TO COASTAL PAC NW.
MEANWHILE...NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER DAKOTAS AND NERN WY
WILL ACCELERATE EWD OVER UPPER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING...REACHING
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z.

AT SFC...12Z ANALYSIS SHOWED QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL-WAVE LOW
OFFSHORE TX COASTAL BEND W OF MARINE STATION KBBF...N OF BUOY 42020
AND E OF CRP...WITH QUASISTATIONARY FRONT SWD ACROSS EXTREME WRN
GULF WATERS.  WARM FRONT WAS DRAWN ESEWD ACROSS NRN GULF TO S
FL...ARCHING NWD OVER GULF STREAM AND OFFSHORE SC.  SECONDARY/WEAKER
WARM-FRONTAL ZONE WAS ANALYZED FROM LOW NEWD ACROSS NRN LA AND MID
TN.  WRN GULF FRONTAL SEGMENT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NWD TO NEAR LA
COAST...WHILE PORTION NEAR FL SHIFTS WWD/NWWD ACROSS ERN/SRN FL
PENINSULA TODAY.

...CENTRAL FL...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AS
CONTINUATION OF LOW-LEVEL DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND CONVERGENCE
JUXTAPOSE INVOF OLD FRONTAL ZONE AND SEA-BREEZE.  ACTIVITY MAY BE
GREATER IN COVERAGE NEAR I-75 CORRIDOR THAN INVOF E COAST AS
CONVERGENCE/CONVECTIVE REGIME SHIFTS WWD DURING MOST BUOYANT WINDOW
OF TIME THIS AFTN.  MLCAPE ONLY IN 700-1200 J/KG RANGE...WEAK
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND SHALLOWNESS OF MOIST LAYER NEAR SFC SUGGEST
SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE TOO MINIMAL/DISORGANIZED FOR AOA 5% WIND/HAIL
PROBABILITIES.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...WRN GULF COAST...
SPORADIC TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT PERIOD...INITIALLY NEAR GULF
COAST WITH GRADUAL EXPANSION INLAND/NEWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY OVER
TIME.  HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE FCST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGHOUT PERIOD AS GREAT LAKES TROUGH PASSES WELL N AND NNE OF
AREA...AND AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER ROCKIES E OF CA PERTURBATION.
AS SUCH...MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MINUSCULE AT
BEST...AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLGT MID/UPPER-LEVEL PROFILE
WARMING OVER AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  AS SUCH...DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES
ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN ONLY MRGLLY UNSTABLE...WITH
WAA AND CONCURRENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTRIBUTING JUST ENOUGH
THETAE TO YIELD BUOYANT PROFILES ACROSS MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYERS...AS
EVIDENT IN 12Z LCH RAOB.  ELEVATED MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT
THUNDER POTENTIAL.

...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN CA...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY INVOF
TROUGH AND RELATED POCKETS OF DCVA/COOLING ALOFT...WHERE LAPSE RATES
ARE OPTIMALLY STEEPENED.  MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 250 J/KG IN
MOST AREAS...BUT CAN EXTEND WELL INTO THERMAL LAYERS SUPPORTING LTG
GENERATION.  ISOLATED OVERNIGHT TSTMS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF
COASTAL SRN CA AS PERTURBATION ALOFT AND RELATED COLD-CORE
DESTABILIZATION/WEAK-CINH REGIME SHIFT SEWD.

..EDWARDS/GLEASON.. 03/01/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 011257
SWODY1
SPC AC 011255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...FROM PARTS OF ARKANSAS
AND MISSISSIPPI TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST...AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ALOFT THROUGH
PERIOD...AS TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER SRN PAC COAST AND GREAT BASIN.
LEADING PERTURBATION -- NOW MANIFEST AS ELLIPTICAL CYCLONE WITH
SW-NE LONG AXIS OVER NV AND S-CENTRAL CA AND ADJOINING PAC -- IS
FCST TO DRIFT SEWD WHILE REORIENTING TOWARD LESS POSITIVE TILT.
THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME OPEN-WAVE IN CHARACTER OVER SRN CA NEAR END
OF PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER NWRN BC -- DIGS SEWD TO COASTAL PAC NW.
MEANWHILE...NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER DAKOTAS AND NERN WY
WILL ACCELERATE EWD OVER UPPER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING...REACHING
LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z.

AT SFC...12Z ANALYSIS SHOWED QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL-WAVE LOW
OFFSHORE TX COASTAL BEND W OF MARINE STATION KBBF...N OF BUOY 42020
AND E OF CRP...WITH QUASISTATIONARY FRONT SWD ACROSS EXTREME WRN
GULF WATERS.  WARM FRONT WAS DRAWN ESEWD ACROSS NRN GULF TO S
FL...ARCHING NWD OVER GULF STREAM AND OFFSHORE SC.  SECONDARY/WEAKER
WARM-FRONTAL ZONE WAS ANALYZED FROM LOW NEWD ACROSS NRN LA AND MID
TN.  WRN GULF FRONTAL SEGMENT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NWD TO NEAR LA
COAST...WHILE PORTION NEAR FL SHIFTS WWD/NWWD ACROSS ERN/SRN FL
PENINSULA TODAY.

...CENTRAL FL...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AS
CONTINUATION OF LOW-LEVEL DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND CONVERGENCE
JUXTAPOSE INVOF OLD FRONTAL ZONE AND SEA-BREEZE.  ACTIVITY MAY BE
GREATER IN COVERAGE NEAR I-75 CORRIDOR THAN INVOF E COAST AS
CONVERGENCE/CONVECTIVE REGIME SHIFTS WWD DURING MOST BUOYANT WINDOW
OF TIME THIS AFTN.  MLCAPE ONLY IN 700-1200 J/KG RANGE...WEAK
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND SHALLOWNESS OF MOIST LAYER NEAR SFC SUGGEST
SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE TOO MINIMAL/DISORGANIZED FOR AOA 5% WIND/HAIL
PROBABILITIES.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...WRN GULF COAST...
SPORADIC TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT PERIOD...INITIALLY NEAR GULF
COAST WITH GRADUAL EXPANSION INLAND/NEWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY OVER
TIME.  HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE FCST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGHOUT PERIOD AS GREAT LAKES TROUGH PASSES WELL N AND NNE OF
AREA...AND AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER ROCKIES E OF CA PERTURBATION.
AS SUCH...MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE MINUSCULE AT
BEST...AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLGT MID/UPPER-LEVEL PROFILE
WARMING OVER AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  AS SUCH...DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES
ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN ONLY MRGLLY UNSTABLE...WITH
WAA AND CONCURRENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTRIBUTING JUST ENOUGH
THETAE TO YIELD BUOYANT PROFILES ACROSS MIDLEVEL STABLE LAYERS...AS
EVIDENT IN 12Z LCH RAOB.  ELEVATED MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT
THUNDER POTENTIAL.

...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN CA...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY INVOF
TROUGH AND RELATED POCKETS OF DCVA/COOLING ALOFT...WHERE LAPSE RATES
ARE OPTIMALLY STEEPENED.  MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 250 J/KG IN
MOST AREAS...BUT CAN EXTEND WELL INTO THERMAL LAYERS SUPPORTING LTG
GENERATION.  ISOLATED OVERNIGHT TSTMS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF
COASTAL SRN CA AS PERTURBATION ALOFT AND RELATED COLD-CORE
DESTABILIZATION/WEAK-CINH REGIME SHIFT SEWD.

..EDWARDS/GLEASON.. 03/01/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 010842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010842
MOZ000-ARZ000-011145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL AR / S-CNTRL AND SERN MO

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 010842Z - 011145Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN RATES 0.05-0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z ACROSS N-CNTRL AR INTO PORTIONS OF SERN MO.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OZARK
PLATEAU AND MOVING NEWD TO TOWARDS THE MS-OH RIVER CONFLUENCE WITHIN
A WARM CONVEYER.  GPS DATA AND SATELLITE-DERIVED DATA SHOW PW IN
EXCESS OF 0.75 INCH OVER THE REGION TO THE N OF A STATIONARY SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE TN
VALLEY.  SURFACE TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 27-32 DEG F RANGE AND
INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING NEAR-SURFACE LAYER BENEATH A MELTING
LAYER WHICH FAVORS FREEZING RAIN P-TYPE.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION
AND FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE PROBABLE
THROUGH 12Z.

..SMITH.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36399309 37479123 37539025 37068945 36269102 35639177
            36399309





000
ACUS11 KWNS 010842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010842
MOZ000-ARZ000-011145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL AR / S-CNTRL AND SERN MO

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 010842Z - 011145Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN RATES 0.05-0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z ACROSS N-CNTRL AR INTO PORTIONS OF SERN MO.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OZARK
PLATEAU AND MOVING NEWD TO TOWARDS THE MS-OH RIVER CONFLUENCE WITHIN
A WARM CONVEYER.  GPS DATA AND SATELLITE-DERIVED DATA SHOW PW IN
EXCESS OF 0.75 INCH OVER THE REGION TO THE N OF A STATIONARY SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE TN
VALLEY.  SURFACE TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 27-32 DEG F RANGE AND
INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING NEAR-SURFACE LAYER BENEATH A MELTING
LAYER WHICH FAVORS FREEZING RAIN P-TYPE.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION
AND FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE PROBABLE
THROUGH 12Z.

..SMITH.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36399309 37479123 37539025 37068945 36269102 35639177
            36399309






000
ACUS11 KWNS 010842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010842
MOZ000-ARZ000-011145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL AR / S-CNTRL AND SERN MO

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 010842Z - 011145Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN RATES 0.05-0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z ACROSS N-CNTRL AR INTO PORTIONS OF SERN MO.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OZARK
PLATEAU AND MOVING NEWD TO TOWARDS THE MS-OH RIVER CONFLUENCE WITHIN
A WARM CONVEYER.  GPS DATA AND SATELLITE-DERIVED DATA SHOW PW IN
EXCESS OF 0.75 INCH OVER THE REGION TO THE N OF A STATIONARY SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE TN
VALLEY.  SURFACE TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 27-32 DEG F RANGE AND
INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING NEAR-SURFACE LAYER BENEATH A MELTING
LAYER WHICH FAVORS FREEZING RAIN P-TYPE.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION
AND FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE PROBABLE
THROUGH 12Z.

..SMITH.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36399309 37479123 37539025 37068945 36269102 35639177
            36399309





000
ACUS11 KWNS 010842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010842
MOZ000-ARZ000-011145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL AR / S-CNTRL AND SERN MO

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 010842Z - 011145Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN RATES 0.05-0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z ACROSS N-CNTRL AR INTO PORTIONS OF SERN MO.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OZARK
PLATEAU AND MOVING NEWD TO TOWARDS THE MS-OH RIVER CONFLUENCE WITHIN
A WARM CONVEYER.  GPS DATA AND SATELLITE-DERIVED DATA SHOW PW IN
EXCESS OF 0.75 INCH OVER THE REGION TO THE N OF A STATIONARY SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE TN
VALLEY.  SURFACE TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 27-32 DEG F RANGE AND
INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING NEAR-SURFACE LAYER BENEATH A MELTING
LAYER WHICH FAVORS FREEZING RAIN P-TYPE.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION
AND FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE PROBABLE
THROUGH 12Z.

..SMITH.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36399309 37479123 37539025 37068945 36269102 35639177
            36399309





000
ACUS11 KWNS 010842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010842
MOZ000-ARZ000-011145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0108
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL AR / S-CNTRL AND SERN MO

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 010842Z - 011145Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN RATES 0.05-0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z ACROSS N-CNTRL AR INTO PORTIONS OF SERN MO.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OZARK
PLATEAU AND MOVING NEWD TO TOWARDS THE MS-OH RIVER CONFLUENCE WITHIN
A WARM CONVEYER.  GPS DATA AND SATELLITE-DERIVED DATA SHOW PW IN
EXCESS OF 0.75 INCH OVER THE REGION TO THE N OF A STATIONARY SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EXTENDING INTO THE TN
VALLEY.  SURFACE TEMPS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 27-32 DEG F RANGE AND
INDICATE A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING NEAR-SURFACE LAYER BENEATH A MELTING
LAYER WHICH FAVORS FREEZING RAIN P-TYPE.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANOTHER FEW HOURS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION
AND FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE PROBABLE
THROUGH 12Z.

..SMITH.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36399309 37479123 37539025 37068945 36269102 35639177
            36399309






000
ACUS03 KWNS 010828
SWODY3
SPC AC 010827

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX AND OZARKS TO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE.  ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
SWLY MID-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
KS/OK INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES TO THE NERN STATES...AS A
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BAHAMAS/CARIBBEAN...AND A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO ONTARIO/QUEBEC.  MEANWHILE...A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN DURING DAY 3 AS IT TRACKS
NEWD WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME.  AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TROUGH SHOULD REACH LOWER MI
BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN PROGRESS INTO SRN QUEBEC BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.  THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THAN IS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z
NAM.  THE FORMER TWO MODELS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM
LOWER MI THROUGH SRN IL...CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH TX BY 04/00Z...AND
REACH A LINE FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SRN
APPALACHIANS TO CENTRAL MS/NRN LA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX BY 04/12Z.

...ARKLATEX AND OZARKS TO LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING FROM PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION
THROUGH THE OZARKS WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA.  AS THE
LLJ ATTENDANT TO THE PROGRESSIVE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TROUGH VEERS
AND TRANSLATES NEWD...LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND WAA SHOULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF KY/TN
TUESDAY MORNING.  MEANWHILE...ALTHOUGH SSWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
AID IN MOISTENING THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE
TN VALLEY...POOR LAPSE RATES WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
SURFACE-BASED PRIOR TO BEING UNDERCUT BY THE COLD FRONT...BUT THIS
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH
DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE ORGANIZED STORMS...THE MEAGER INSTABILITY PRECLUDES THE
INCLUSION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..PETERS.. 03/01/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 010828
SWODY3
SPC AC 010827

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX AND OZARKS TO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE.  ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
SWLY MID-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
KS/OK INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES TO THE NERN STATES...AS A
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BAHAMAS/CARIBBEAN...AND A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO ONTARIO/QUEBEC.  MEANWHILE...A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN DURING DAY 3 AS IT TRACKS
NEWD WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME.  AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TROUGH SHOULD REACH LOWER MI
BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN PROGRESS INTO SRN QUEBEC BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.  THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THAN IS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z
NAM.  THE FORMER TWO MODELS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM
LOWER MI THROUGH SRN IL...CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH TX BY 04/00Z...AND
REACH A LINE FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SRN
APPALACHIANS TO CENTRAL MS/NRN LA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX BY 04/12Z.

...ARKLATEX AND OZARKS TO LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING FROM PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION
THROUGH THE OZARKS WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA.  AS THE
LLJ ATTENDANT TO THE PROGRESSIVE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TROUGH VEERS
AND TRANSLATES NEWD...LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND WAA SHOULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF KY/TN
TUESDAY MORNING.  MEANWHILE...ALTHOUGH SSWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
AID IN MOISTENING THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE
TN VALLEY...POOR LAPSE RATES WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
SURFACE-BASED PRIOR TO BEING UNDERCUT BY THE COLD FRONT...BUT THIS
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH
DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE ORGANIZED STORMS...THE MEAGER INSTABILITY PRECLUDES THE
INCLUSION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..PETERS.. 03/01/2015





000
ACUS03 KWNS 010828
SWODY3
SPC AC 010827

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING FROM THE ARK-LA-TEX AND OZARKS TO WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE.  ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
SWLY MID-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
KS/OK INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES TO THE NERN STATES...AS A
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BAHAMAS/CARIBBEAN...AND A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO ONTARIO/QUEBEC.  MEANWHILE...A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN DURING DAY 3 AS IT TRACKS
NEWD WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME.  AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TROUGH SHOULD REACH LOWER MI
BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN PROGRESS INTO SRN QUEBEC BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.  THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THAN IS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z
NAM.  THE FORMER TWO MODELS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM
LOWER MI THROUGH SRN IL...CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH TX BY 04/00Z...AND
REACH A LINE FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SRN
APPALACHIANS TO CENTRAL MS/NRN LA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX BY 04/12Z.

...ARKLATEX AND OZARKS TO LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING FROM PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX REGION
THROUGH THE OZARKS WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA.  AS THE
LLJ ATTENDANT TO THE PROGRESSIVE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TROUGH VEERS
AND TRANSLATES NEWD...LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND WAA SHOULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF KY/TN
TUESDAY MORNING.  MEANWHILE...ALTHOUGH SSWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL
AID IN MOISTENING THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE
TN VALLEY...POOR LAPSE RATES WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
SURFACE-BASED PRIOR TO BEING UNDERCUT BY THE COLD FRONT...BUT THIS
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED AT THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH
DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE ORGANIZED STORMS...THE MEAGER INSTABILITY PRECLUDES THE
INCLUSION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..PETERS.. 03/01/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 010826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010826
NCZ000-VAZ000-011400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NC AND VA PIEDMONT

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 010826Z - 011400Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NNEWD FROM
CNTRL NC INTO S-CNTRL VA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  RAINFALL RATES
AROUND 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z.

DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1040 MB HIGH
OVER DELMARVA WITH A CP AIR MASS DAMMED IN LEE OF THE CNTRL-SRN
APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF A RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE.  SURFACE TEMPS
RANGE FROM 32 DEG F OVER CNTRL NC TO THE MIDDLE 20S OVER S-CNTRL VA.
A BROAD WARM-AIR ADVECTION REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONS TO A
TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES AND WEAK RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  A GRADUAL MOISTENING IN THE LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERE WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT FAVORS THE
NEWD SPREAD OF SHOWERS FROM SC AND S-CNTRL NC INTO CNTRL NC AND
S-CNTRL VA THROUGH 14Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL
MELTING LAYER PROTRUDING AROUND H8 ATOP A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER.  THE RESULTANT P-TYPE WILL FAVOR FREEZING RAIN
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOUR RATES ARE POSSIBLE
ONCE FREEZING RAIN BEGINS.

..SMITH.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   36557760 35707859 35618060 36547992 37177860 36557760





000
ACUS11 KWNS 010826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010826
NCZ000-VAZ000-011400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NC AND VA PIEDMONT

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 010826Z - 011400Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NNEWD FROM
CNTRL NC INTO S-CNTRL VA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  RAINFALL RATES
AROUND 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z.

DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1040 MB HIGH
OVER DELMARVA WITH A CP AIR MASS DAMMED IN LEE OF THE CNTRL-SRN
APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF A RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE.  SURFACE TEMPS
RANGE FROM 32 DEG F OVER CNTRL NC TO THE MIDDLE 20S OVER S-CNTRL VA.
A BROAD WARM-AIR ADVECTION REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONS TO A
TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES AND WEAK RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  A GRADUAL MOISTENING IN THE LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERE WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT FAVORS THE
NEWD SPREAD OF SHOWERS FROM SC AND S-CNTRL NC INTO CNTRL NC AND
S-CNTRL VA THROUGH 14Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL
MELTING LAYER PROTRUDING AROUND H8 ATOP A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER.  THE RESULTANT P-TYPE WILL FAVOR FREEZING RAIN
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOUR RATES ARE POSSIBLE
ONCE FREEZING RAIN BEGINS.

..SMITH.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   36557760 35707859 35618060 36547992 37177860 36557760






000
ACUS11 KWNS 010826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010826
NCZ000-VAZ000-011400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NC AND VA PIEDMONT

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 010826Z - 011400Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NNEWD FROM
CNTRL NC INTO S-CNTRL VA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  RAINFALL RATES
AROUND 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z.

DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1040 MB HIGH
OVER DELMARVA WITH A CP AIR MASS DAMMED IN LEE OF THE CNTRL-SRN
APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF A RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE.  SURFACE TEMPS
RANGE FROM 32 DEG F OVER CNTRL NC TO THE MIDDLE 20S OVER S-CNTRL VA.
A BROAD WARM-AIR ADVECTION REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONS TO A
TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES AND WEAK RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  A GRADUAL MOISTENING IN THE LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERE WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT FAVORS THE
NEWD SPREAD OF SHOWERS FROM SC AND S-CNTRL NC INTO CNTRL NC AND
S-CNTRL VA THROUGH 14Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL
MELTING LAYER PROTRUDING AROUND H8 ATOP A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER.  THE RESULTANT P-TYPE WILL FAVOR FREEZING RAIN
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOUR RATES ARE POSSIBLE
ONCE FREEZING RAIN BEGINS.

..SMITH.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   36557760 35707859 35618060 36547992 37177860 36557760





000
ACUS11 KWNS 010826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010826
NCZ000-VAZ000-011400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NC AND VA PIEDMONT

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 010826Z - 011400Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NNEWD FROM
CNTRL NC INTO S-CNTRL VA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  RAINFALL RATES
AROUND 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z.

DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1040 MB HIGH
OVER DELMARVA WITH A CP AIR MASS DAMMED IN LEE OF THE CNTRL-SRN
APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF A RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE.  SURFACE TEMPS
RANGE FROM 32 DEG F OVER CNTRL NC TO THE MIDDLE 20S OVER S-CNTRL VA.
A BROAD WARM-AIR ADVECTION REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONS TO A
TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES AND WEAK RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  A GRADUAL MOISTENING IN THE LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERE WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT FAVORS THE
NEWD SPREAD OF SHOWERS FROM SC AND S-CNTRL NC INTO CNTRL NC AND
S-CNTRL VA THROUGH 14Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL
MELTING LAYER PROTRUDING AROUND H8 ATOP A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER.  THE RESULTANT P-TYPE WILL FAVOR FREEZING RAIN
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOUR RATES ARE POSSIBLE
ONCE FREEZING RAIN BEGINS.

..SMITH.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   36557760 35707859 35618060 36547992 37177860 36557760





000
ACUS11 KWNS 010826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010826
NCZ000-VAZ000-011400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NC AND VA PIEDMONT

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 010826Z - 011400Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NNEWD FROM
CNTRL NC INTO S-CNTRL VA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  RAINFALL RATES
AROUND 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z.

DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1040 MB HIGH
OVER DELMARVA WITH A CP AIR MASS DAMMED IN LEE OF THE CNTRL-SRN
APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF A RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE.  SURFACE TEMPS
RANGE FROM 32 DEG F OVER CNTRL NC TO THE MIDDLE 20S OVER S-CNTRL VA.
A BROAD WARM-AIR ADVECTION REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONS TO A
TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES AND WEAK RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  A GRADUAL MOISTENING IN THE LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERE WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT FAVORS THE
NEWD SPREAD OF SHOWERS FROM SC AND S-CNTRL NC INTO CNTRL NC AND
S-CNTRL VA THROUGH 14Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL
MELTING LAYER PROTRUDING AROUND H8 ATOP A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER.  THE RESULTANT P-TYPE WILL FAVOR FREEZING RAIN
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOUR RATES ARE POSSIBLE
ONCE FREEZING RAIN BEGINS.

..SMITH.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   36557760 35707859 35618060 36547992 37177860 36557760






000
ACUS11 KWNS 010826
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010826
NCZ000-VAZ000-011400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NC AND VA PIEDMONT

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 010826Z - 011400Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NNEWD FROM
CNTRL NC INTO S-CNTRL VA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  RAINFALL RATES
AROUND 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z.

DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1040 MB HIGH
OVER DELMARVA WITH A CP AIR MASS DAMMED IN LEE OF THE CNTRL-SRN
APPALACHIANS TO THE N OF A RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE.  SURFACE TEMPS
RANGE FROM 32 DEG F OVER CNTRL NC TO THE MIDDLE 20S OVER S-CNTRL VA.
A BROAD WARM-AIR ADVECTION REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE TN VALLEY AND
CAROLINAS AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS TRANSITIONS TO A
TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES AND WEAK RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  A GRADUAL MOISTENING IN THE LOWER-MID
TROPOSPHERE WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT FAVORS THE
NEWD SPREAD OF SHOWERS FROM SC AND S-CNTRL NC INTO CNTRL NC AND
S-CNTRL VA THROUGH 14Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL
MELTING LAYER PROTRUDING AROUND H8 ATOP A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER.  THE RESULTANT P-TYPE WILL FAVOR FREEZING RAIN
AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOUR RATES ARE POSSIBLE
ONCE FREEZING RAIN BEGINS.

..SMITH.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   36557760 35707859 35618060 36547992 37177860 36557760





000
ACUS02 KWNS 010701
SWODY2
SPC AC 010700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY ACROSS A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND INTO
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN ARIZONA MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN.  HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE NERN STATES AND DEPARTING THE NRN ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...A BLOCKING RIDGE WILL REMAIN LOCATED WEST OF
THE PACIFIC COAST.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SSEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES...WHILE A WEAKER TROUGH
DEVELOPS SWD FROM THE WA/ORE COAST FORMING A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE
SRN CA COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN
DISLODGING THE DAY 2 SRN CA TROUGH NEWD THROUGH THE SWRN STATES TO
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS /ERN CO TO WRN NEB/.

...ERN OK/ARKLATEX TO SRN MO/WRN TN...
SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TX THROUGH ERN OK...THE OZARKS INTO ERN KS AND THE LOWER MO
VALLEY.  THIS INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE THE GREATEST
MONDAY NIGHT AS 60-90-METER HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS OK TO THE
LOWER MO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE EJECTING SRN CA TROUGH AND THE SSEWD
MOVING CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC MOISTENING AND WARM-AIR ADVECTION WITH THESE
FACTORS BEING GREATER ABOVE THE SURFACE.  A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH-PRESSURE AREA WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES...THOUGH SURFACE TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES
SHOULD NOT BECOME SLY UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN A
SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM ERN CO INTO NWRN KS.  THE LACK OF GREATER
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PARCELS TO
BECOME SURFACE-BASED WITH STRONGER DESTABILIZATION /MUCAPE OF
100-200 J PER KG/ OCCURRING ABOVE THE SURFACE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MOST PARCELS SHOULD BE ROOTED AROUND 850 MB...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN TSTM COVERAGE IS LOW GIVEN THE FORECAST PRESENCE OF A
MIDLEVEL WARM LAYER.  HOWEVER...THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
AND WAA MONDAY NIGHT SUGGESTS PARCELS SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE
WARMER 700-MB TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS.

...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN CA...
A LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TSTMS WILL EXIST ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE COASTAL AREAS OF FAR SRN CA MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A SRN CA SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD.  IF
THE WRN WA/ORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS MORE SWD THROUGH WRN CA
INSTEAD OF OFFSHORE...THEN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF CENTRAL
CA.  LATEST GUIDANCE TENDS TO FAVOR THE OFFSHORE TRACK...AND THUS
WILL NOT INCLUDE A GENERAL TSTM AREA AT THIS TIME ALONG THE CENTRAL
CA COAST.

...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INTO WRN AZ...
THE COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO
THE SRN CA TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND AZ
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS...AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN.

..PETERS.. 03/01/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 010701
SWODY2
SPC AC 010700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY ACROSS A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND INTO
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN ARIZONA MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN.  HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE NERN STATES AND DEPARTING THE NRN ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...A BLOCKING RIDGE WILL REMAIN LOCATED WEST OF
THE PACIFIC COAST.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SSEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES...WHILE A WEAKER TROUGH
DEVELOPS SWD FROM THE WA/ORE COAST FORMING A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE
SRN CA COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN
DISLODGING THE DAY 2 SRN CA TROUGH NEWD THROUGH THE SWRN STATES TO
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS /ERN CO TO WRN NEB/.

...ERN OK/ARKLATEX TO SRN MO/WRN TN...
SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TX THROUGH ERN OK...THE OZARKS INTO ERN KS AND THE LOWER MO
VALLEY.  THIS INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE THE GREATEST
MONDAY NIGHT AS 60-90-METER HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS OK TO THE
LOWER MO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE EJECTING SRN CA TROUGH AND THE SSEWD
MOVING CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC MOISTENING AND WARM-AIR ADVECTION WITH THESE
FACTORS BEING GREATER ABOVE THE SURFACE.  A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH-PRESSURE AREA WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES...THOUGH SURFACE TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES
SHOULD NOT BECOME SLY UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN A
SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM ERN CO INTO NWRN KS.  THE LACK OF GREATER
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PARCELS TO
BECOME SURFACE-BASED WITH STRONGER DESTABILIZATION /MUCAPE OF
100-200 J PER KG/ OCCURRING ABOVE THE SURFACE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MOST PARCELS SHOULD BE ROOTED AROUND 850 MB...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN TSTM COVERAGE IS LOW GIVEN THE FORECAST PRESENCE OF A
MIDLEVEL WARM LAYER.  HOWEVER...THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
AND WAA MONDAY NIGHT SUGGESTS PARCELS SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE
WARMER 700-MB TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS.

...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN CA...
A LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TSTMS WILL EXIST ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE COASTAL AREAS OF FAR SRN CA MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A SRN CA SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD.  IF
THE WRN WA/ORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS MORE SWD THROUGH WRN CA
INSTEAD OF OFFSHORE...THEN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF CENTRAL
CA.  LATEST GUIDANCE TENDS TO FAVOR THE OFFSHORE TRACK...AND THUS
WILL NOT INCLUDE A GENERAL TSTM AREA AT THIS TIME ALONG THE CENTRAL
CA COAST.

...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INTO WRN AZ...
THE COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO
THE SRN CA TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND AZ
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS...AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN.

..PETERS.. 03/01/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 010701
SWODY2
SPC AC 010700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY ACROSS A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND INTO
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN ARIZONA MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN.  HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE NERN STATES AND DEPARTING THE NRN ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...A BLOCKING RIDGE WILL REMAIN LOCATED WEST OF
THE PACIFIC COAST.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SSEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES...WHILE A WEAKER TROUGH
DEVELOPS SWD FROM THE WA/ORE COAST FORMING A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE
SRN CA COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN
DISLODGING THE DAY 2 SRN CA TROUGH NEWD THROUGH THE SWRN STATES TO
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS /ERN CO TO WRN NEB/.

...ERN OK/ARKLATEX TO SRN MO/WRN TN...
SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TX THROUGH ERN OK...THE OZARKS INTO ERN KS AND THE LOWER MO
VALLEY.  THIS INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE THE GREATEST
MONDAY NIGHT AS 60-90-METER HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS OK TO THE
LOWER MO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE EJECTING SRN CA TROUGH AND THE SSEWD
MOVING CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC MOISTENING AND WARM-AIR ADVECTION WITH THESE
FACTORS BEING GREATER ABOVE THE SURFACE.  A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH-PRESSURE AREA WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES...THOUGH SURFACE TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES
SHOULD NOT BECOME SLY UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN A
SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM ERN CO INTO NWRN KS.  THE LACK OF GREATER
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PARCELS TO
BECOME SURFACE-BASED WITH STRONGER DESTABILIZATION /MUCAPE OF
100-200 J PER KG/ OCCURRING ABOVE THE SURFACE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MOST PARCELS SHOULD BE ROOTED AROUND 850 MB...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN TSTM COVERAGE IS LOW GIVEN THE FORECAST PRESENCE OF A
MIDLEVEL WARM LAYER.  HOWEVER...THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
AND WAA MONDAY NIGHT SUGGESTS PARCELS SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE
WARMER 700-MB TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS.

...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN CA...
A LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TSTMS WILL EXIST ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE COASTAL AREAS OF FAR SRN CA MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A SRN CA SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD.  IF
THE WRN WA/ORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS MORE SWD THROUGH WRN CA
INSTEAD OF OFFSHORE...THEN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF CENTRAL
CA.  LATEST GUIDANCE TENDS TO FAVOR THE OFFSHORE TRACK...AND THUS
WILL NOT INCLUDE A GENERAL TSTM AREA AT THIS TIME ALONG THE CENTRAL
CA COAST.

...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INTO WRN AZ...
THE COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO
THE SRN CA TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND AZ
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS...AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN.

..PETERS.. 03/01/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 010701
SWODY2
SPC AC 010700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TEX AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND FAR WESTERN TENNESSEE.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY ACROSS A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND INTO
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN ARIZONA MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN.  HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. IN THE WAKE OF A TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE NERN STATES AND DEPARTING THE NRN ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...A BLOCKING RIDGE WILL REMAIN LOCATED WEST OF
THE PACIFIC COAST.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SSEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES...WHILE A WEAKER TROUGH
DEVELOPS SWD FROM THE WA/ORE COAST FORMING A CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE
SRN CA COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN
DISLODGING THE DAY 2 SRN CA TROUGH NEWD THROUGH THE SWRN STATES TO
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS /ERN CO TO WRN NEB/.

...ERN OK/ARKLATEX TO SRN MO/WRN TN...
SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TX THROUGH ERN OK...THE OZARKS INTO ERN KS AND THE LOWER MO
VALLEY.  THIS INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE THE GREATEST
MONDAY NIGHT AS 60-90-METER HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR ACROSS OK TO THE
LOWER MO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE EJECTING SRN CA TROUGH AND THE SSEWD
MOVING CENTRAL CANADA TROUGH.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC MOISTENING AND WARM-AIR ADVECTION WITH THESE
FACTORS BEING GREATER ABOVE THE SURFACE.  A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH-PRESSURE AREA WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES...THOUGH SURFACE TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES
SHOULD NOT BECOME SLY UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN A
SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM ERN CO INTO NWRN KS.  THE LACK OF GREATER
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PARCELS TO
BECOME SURFACE-BASED WITH STRONGER DESTABILIZATION /MUCAPE OF
100-200 J PER KG/ OCCURRING ABOVE THE SURFACE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MOST PARCELS SHOULD BE ROOTED AROUND 850 MB...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN TSTM COVERAGE IS LOW GIVEN THE FORECAST PRESENCE OF A
MIDLEVEL WARM LAYER.  HOWEVER...THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING
AND WAA MONDAY NIGHT SUGGESTS PARCELS SHOULD BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE
WARMER 700-MB TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS.

...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN CA...
A LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TSTMS WILL EXIST ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE COASTAL AREAS OF FAR SRN CA MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A SRN CA SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD.  IF
THE WRN WA/ORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS MORE SWD THROUGH WRN CA
INSTEAD OF OFFSHORE...THEN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF CENTRAL
CA.  LATEST GUIDANCE TENDS TO FAVOR THE OFFSHORE TRACK...AND THUS
WILL NOT INCLUDE A GENERAL TSTM AREA AT THIS TIME ALONG THE CENTRAL
CA COAST.

...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INTO WRN AZ...
THE COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO
THE SRN CA TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND AZ
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS...AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN.

..PETERS.. 03/01/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 010544
SWODY1
SPC AC 010543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY...AND FROM PARTS OF
EXTREME EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
DRIFTING SLOWLY SWD THROUGH CA WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM
THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA.

...CNTRL THROUGH SCNTRL CA...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN OVER A PORTION OF CNTRL INTO SCNTRL CA WHERE DIABATIC WARMING
BENEATH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL
RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY.

...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
WITHIN A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT WHERE
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY.

...CNTRL FL...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
IN VICINITY OF AN E-W BOUNDARY AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS ACROSS CNTRL FL DURING THE DAY. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

..DIAL/PICCA.. 03/01/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 010544
SWODY1
SPC AC 010543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY...AND FROM PARTS OF
EXTREME EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
DRIFTING SLOWLY SWD THROUGH CA WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM
THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA.

...CNTRL THROUGH SCNTRL CA...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN OVER A PORTION OF CNTRL INTO SCNTRL CA WHERE DIABATIC WARMING
BENEATH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL
RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY.

...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
WITHIN A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT WHERE
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY.

...CNTRL FL...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
IN VICINITY OF AN E-W BOUNDARY AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS ACROSS CNTRL FL DURING THE DAY. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

..DIAL/PICCA.. 03/01/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 010544
SWODY1
SPC AC 010543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY...AND FROM PARTS OF
EXTREME EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
DRIFTING SLOWLY SWD THROUGH CA WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM
THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA.

...CNTRL THROUGH SCNTRL CA...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN OVER A PORTION OF CNTRL INTO SCNTRL CA WHERE DIABATIC WARMING
BENEATH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL
RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY.

...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
WITHIN A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT WHERE
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY.

...CNTRL FL...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
IN VICINITY OF AN E-W BOUNDARY AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS ACROSS CNTRL FL DURING THE DAY. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

..DIAL/PICCA.. 03/01/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 010544
SWODY1
SPC AC 010543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY...AND FROM PARTS OF
EXTREME EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
DRIFTING SLOWLY SWD THROUGH CA WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM
THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AREA.

...CNTRL THROUGH SCNTRL CA...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN OVER A PORTION OF CNTRL INTO SCNTRL CA WHERE DIABATIC WARMING
BENEATH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL
RESULT IN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY.

...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
WITHIN A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT WHERE
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY.

...CNTRL FL...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
IN VICINITY OF AN E-W BOUNDARY AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS ACROSS CNTRL FL DURING THE DAY. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

..DIAL/PICCA.. 03/01/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 010200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010159
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-010800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN AR...ERN OK...FAR SRN MO

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 010159Z - 010800Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THIS EVENING. HRLY RATES IN EXCESS OF 0.05 INCHES ARE
LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WITH A SWLY
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND INTO THE OZARKS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN
PERSIST AS OF 02Z...AND SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE AND EVEN WEAK INSTABILITY INCREASE.

THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE EXTENDED FROM SERN OK ACROSS NRN AR AS OF
02Z...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH. HOWEVER...THE WARM NOSE
ALOFT WILL SPREAD NWD WITH TIME...WITH SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
THEN FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NRN AR INTO SRN MO.


THE GREATEST DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER NWRN/NRN AR
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FREEZING LINE...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS HIGHEST AND WHERE LOW AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CAPE MAY EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION RATES.

..JEWELL.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   36719333 37129231 37329122 37219070 36799065 36129096
            35689154 35179282 34969353 34759416 34449550 34629591
            35209595 35619557 35989492 36249447 36719333





000
ACUS11 KWNS 010200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010159
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-010800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN AR...ERN OK...FAR SRN MO

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 010159Z - 010800Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THIS EVENING. HRLY RATES IN EXCESS OF 0.05 INCHES ARE
LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WITH A SWLY
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND INTO THE OZARKS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN
PERSIST AS OF 02Z...AND SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE AND EVEN WEAK INSTABILITY INCREASE.

THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE EXTENDED FROM SERN OK ACROSS NRN AR AS OF
02Z...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH. HOWEVER...THE WARM NOSE
ALOFT WILL SPREAD NWD WITH TIME...WITH SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
THEN FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NRN AR INTO SRN MO.


THE GREATEST DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER NWRN/NRN AR
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FREEZING LINE...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS HIGHEST AND WHERE LOW AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CAPE MAY EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION RATES.

..JEWELL.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   36719333 37129231 37329122 37219070 36799065 36129096
            35689154 35179282 34969353 34759416 34449550 34629591
            35209595 35619557 35989492 36249447 36719333






000
ACUS11 KWNS 010200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010159
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-010800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN AR...ERN OK...FAR SRN MO

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 010159Z - 010800Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THIS EVENING. HRLY RATES IN EXCESS OF 0.05 INCHES ARE
LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A ZONE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WITH A SWLY
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND INTO THE OZARKS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS OF FREEZING RAIN
PERSIST AS OF 02Z...AND SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE AND EVEN WEAK INSTABILITY INCREASE.

THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE EXTENDED FROM SERN OK ACROSS NRN AR AS OF
02Z...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH. HOWEVER...THE WARM NOSE
ALOFT WILL SPREAD NWD WITH TIME...WITH SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
THEN FREEZING RAIN LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NRN AR INTO SRN MO.


THE GREATEST DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER NWRN/NRN AR
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FREEZING LINE...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS HIGHEST AND WHERE LOW AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CAPE MAY EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION RATES.

..JEWELL.. 03/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   36719333 37129231 37329122 37219070 36799065 36129096
            35689154 35179282 34969353 34759416 34449550 34629591
            35209595 35619557 35989492 36249447 36719333





000
ACUS01 KWNS 010027
SWODY1
SPC AC 010026

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0626 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER WEST CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAINLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

...CENTRAL CA...

THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OAKLAND CA SHOWS STEEP /7.5 C/KM/ LAPSE RATES
AND WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /-28 C AT 500
MB/ WITHIN CORE OF THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING
BUT UNDERGO A GRADUAL DECREASE WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

...SRN FL...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT AND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE SFC LAYER STABILIZES.

..DIAL.. 03/01/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 010027
SWODY1
SPC AC 010026

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0626 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER WEST CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAINLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

...CENTRAL CA...

THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM OAKLAND CA SHOWS STEEP /7.5 C/KM/ LAPSE RATES
AND WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT /-28 C AT 500
MB/ WITHIN CORE OF THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING
BUT UNDERGO A GRADUAL DECREASE WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

...SRN FL...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT AND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE SFC LAYER STABILIZES.

..DIAL.. 03/01/2015






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