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000
ACUS11 KWNS 310159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310159
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-310330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0797
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0859 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB...NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 232...

VALID 310159Z - 310330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 232
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW
232. SOME DECREASE IN THE THREAT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
EVENING...AND DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY NOT
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WW 232 HAVE CONGEALED INTO A
LOOSELY-ORGANIZED QLCS...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
ACROSS NWRN KS AND N-CNTRL NEB. MEASURED GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS
HAVE RECENTLY BEEN NOTED AT LBF AND MCK...WITH OTHER REPORTS OF
STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED PRIMARILY WITH THE SRN PART OF THE LINE.
SOME THREAT OF SEVERE WIND SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL WATCH EXPIRATION
TIME AT 03Z...THOUGH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN INTENSITY HAS BEGUN AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO LATE EVENING AS SB CINH INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE LINE. AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN
CONVECTION INTO LATE EVENING...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AS
STORMS BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED.

DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS NEAR THE 03Z EXPIRATION TIME...A
LOCAL EXTENSION OF WW 232 MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED...BUT THE THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED BEYOND 03Z FOR ANY DOWNSTREAM WATCH
ISSUANCE.

..DEAN/GUYER.. 05/31/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   38360215 40450089 42509998 42929959 42929862 42769818
            41669799 40089876 38939944 38310021 38360215






000
ACUS11 KWNS 310005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310005
SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-310130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0796
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0705 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN NEB...NWRN KS...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 232...

VALID 310005Z - 310130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 232
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A RELATIVELY ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK CONTINUES
ACROSS THE VALID PORTION OF WW 232.

DISCUSSION...AT 00Z...THREE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONVECTION WERE ONGOING
ACROSS WW 232. ACROSS NRN NEB...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER WAS
DRAPED ACROSS CHERRY COUNTY...WITH A LEADING CELL E OF THE LINE
MOVING N OF AINSWORTH WITH AN ATTENDANT HAIL/WIND RISK. ACROSS SWRN
NEB INTO FAR NWRN KS...SOME UPSCALE GROWTH WAS EVIDENT...WITH A
SMALL BOWING SEGMENT NOTED APPROACHING NORTH PLATTE WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHER SOUTH...RECENT
INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS KIOWA COUNTY CO AS ONGOING
CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 1-2
HOURS...GIVEN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ONLY LOOSELY ORGANIZED...GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW
NOTED ON 00Z LBF SOUNDING AND LNX/GLD VWP DATA...BUT SOME LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LATER THIS EVENING...AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION...BUT THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
BECOMES LARGELY ELEVATED.

..DEAN.. 05/31/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38290340 40530192 41150159 42380210 42940177 42949999
            42989833 38290062 38290340






000
ACUS11 KWNS 301816
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301816
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-302015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0789
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI AND FAR EASTERN
KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301816Z - 302015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS INCREASING...PARTICULARLY IN
EASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.  HAIL AND WIND WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND THE REGION WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A REGION JUST
AHEAD OF A REMNANT VORT MAX FROM A PREVIOUS MCS LOCATED OVER
OKLAHOMA.  CONVECTION HAS FORMED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD
POOL OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND
FARTHER NORTH JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO.  OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES AND MODEL POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT THESE
STORMS ARE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MEAGER LOW AND DEEP
SHEAR...BUT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG
MUCAPE/ SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A LOWER-END SEVERE THREAT.  A FEW
SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THEIR EXPECTED
OUTFLOW-DOMINANT NATURE...AND HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT.  CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS /PARTICULARLY THE
HRRR/ SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO GROW IN COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...WHILE PROPAGATING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD POOL.

A WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   36969480 37449514 38259538 39179576 39809574 40169550
            40329505 40269445 40059337 39529227 38829164 38029143
            37359181 37019232 36869262 36609319 36669384 36709415
            36969480






000
ACUS11 KWNS 301755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301755
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-302000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0787
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF UPSTATE/CENTRAL NEW YORK...WESTERN
VERMONT...AND NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301755Z - 302000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF WIND
DAMAGE EXPECTED NEAR THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.  A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A FEW AREAS
OF TOWERING CUMULUS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA.  INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA IS WEAK BASED ON LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...BUT MODEL POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS CONTINUED INSOLATION/SURFACE
HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG.  FORCING FOR ASCENT
ALOFT IS RELATIVELY WEAK IN THE REGION...BUT CONTINUED HEATING
AMIDST A CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH TIME.  A FEW INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE/SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE
EXPECTED GIVEN 50+ KNOT FLOW ALOFT...AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
SUGGESTS PRIMARILY OUTFLOW-DOMINANT STORMS.

GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THIS THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON   44987400 44987309 44787262 44057267 42947340 41807494
            41117613 40937690 41087742 41597743 42317710 43327596
            44177484 44987400






000
ACUS01 KWNS 301625
SWODY1
SPC AC 301623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL
PLNS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLNS NNE INTO
THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE MAIN HAZARDS SHOULD BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

...SYNOPSIS...
TWO-STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LWR 48. THE PRIMARY BAND OF
THE WLYS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES...WITH THE SRN
STREAM EXTENDING FROM NRN MEXICO ENE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS AND LWR MS
VLY TO THE S ATLANTIC CST. WITH NRN STREAM JET STREAK NOW ENTERING
THE NRN RCKYS...EXPECT THAT AB/MT TROUGH/LOW WILL SOMEWHAT DEEPEN AS
IT CONTINUES ESE INTO ERN MT THIS EVE...AND INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS
EARLY TUE. TO THE SOUTH...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST OVER
THE SRN PLNS...DOWNSTREAM FROM QSTNRY LOW OVER THE LWR CO VLY.

AT THE SFC...EXISTING NRN PLNS LEE LOW EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE NEAR
THE BLACK HILLS LATER TODAY. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE E INTO CNTRL SD
THIS EVE...BEFORE TURNING NE TO THE ND-MN BORDER EARLY TUE.
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT NOW IN MT SHOULD ACCELERATE SEWD AS THE SFC
LOW STRENGTHENS...WITH THE NRN PORTION OVERTAKING LEE TROUGH/DRY
LINE OVER SD/WRN NEB EARLY TNGT. E OF THE LOW...PERSISTENT
FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED NW/SE-ORIENTED
WARM FRONT OVER MN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...CNTRL/NRN PLNS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...
SFC HEATING AND ASCENT WITH APPROACHING UPR TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE
SCTD AREAS OF STRONG AFTN/EVE TSTMS FROM THE DAKOTAS SSW THROUGH
CNTRL NEB INTO NW KS. STORMS SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
SFC LOW AND ALONG COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH SEGMENTS. ACTIVITY ALSO
COULD ARISE ALONG OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES PRODUCED BY
ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW OVER ND/NRN SD.

GIVEN STEEP LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...WITH SFC DEW POINTS MAINLY
IN THE 50S F AND PW AROUND 1 INCH...PRIMARY EARLY-STAGE SVR THREAT
SHOULD BE HAIL AS HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG AMID 30-35
KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR. HOWEVER...SETUP ALSO SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG
CONVECTIVE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS STORM OUTFLOWS ENCOURAGE UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT INTO CLUSTERS/BANDS. STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE NGT
ACROSS ERN SD AND WRN MN...WHERE NOCTURNALLY-ENHANCED WAA WILL BE
FOCUSED ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...BUT WITH A MUCH DIMINISHED
RISK FOR SVR WEATHER. A SEPARATE AREA OR TWO OF OVERNIGHT STORMS
ALSO MAY LINGER OVER NEB/KS...WHERE SOMEWHAT GREATER LOW-LVL
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.

...SRN PLNS AFTN/EVE...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE SRN PLNS REMAINS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAYS...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE WSWLY SRN STREAM FLOW ATOP
WEAK/ADEQUATELY MOIST LOW-LVL SLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
SOMEWHAT REDUCED IN WAKE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
YESTERDAY...STRONG SFC HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCTD STORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE SEGMENTS FROM
ERN CO AND ERN INTO WEST TX BY EVE. SVR HAIL/WIND MAY OCCUR WITH
SOME STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN SW/W CNTRL TX...WHERE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED
/40+ KT/ DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST BENEATH SRN STREAM JET...AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST.

...NERN U.S. AFTN/EARLY EVE...
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE UPR GRT LKS YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE
E ACROSS THE LWR LKS AND NRN APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY. THIS
FEATURE...AND SW/NE-ORIENTED CONFLUENCE ZONE AHEAD OF IT...WILL
SERVE AS MODEST SOURCES OF LOW-LVL UPLIFT. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...JUDGING FROM CURRENT SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA
SHOWING A SERIES OF MINOR DISTURBANCES IN LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. BUT AREA FROM CNTRL/ERN PA NEWD INTO VT/NH/WRN ME WILL
EXPERIENCE STRONG HEATING...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE FOR STORMS. ALTHOUGH
MODEST MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL TEMPER UPDRAFT STRENGTH...30-40 KT
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY 700-500 MB FLOW COULD FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS IN EXPECTED AFTN/EARLY EVE STORMS. THESE COULD
YIELD LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS AND...MAINLY IN NRN NEW
ENGLAND...MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

...S CNTRL/SE NC THIS AFTN...
SFC HEATING OF MOIST/CONFLUENT FLOW NE OF REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
TROPICAL SYSTEM BONNIE MAY YIELD A FOCUSED AREA OF AFTN SHOWERS/WEAK
STORMS IN S CNTRL/SE NC. AREA VWP DATA SHOW THAT SOME DEGREE OF
LOW-LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PERSISTS...BUT WEAK FLOW SHOULD KEEP
MAGNITUDE OF 0-1 KM SRH QUITE WEAK.

..CORFIDI/COOK.. 05/30/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 301248
SWODY1
SPC AC 301246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/SRN ND TO PORTIONS ERN
CO/NWRN KS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING SLGT RISK...THEN
SWD TO ERN NM AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF W TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN PA TO NRN NEW
ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE MAIN HAZARDS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE...RATHER LOW-AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS CONUS THROUGH PERIOD.  LEADING NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND EJECTING NEWD ACROSS NERN ONT AND
WRN QUE...EXTENDS SSWWD ACROSS LOWER MI AND NERN INDIANA.  THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE ENEWD OVER WRN QUE AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
TODAY...CONTINUING TO WEAKEN...AS MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPSTREAM TROUGH
CROSSES NWRN ONT AND LS.  LATTER FEATURE SHOULD REACH WRN QUE AND
ERN ONT BY END OF PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...COMPACT 500-MB LOW AND
ACCOMPANYING TROUGH NOW OVER NRN ROCKIES SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND MOVE
ESEWD.  BY 12Z...LOW SHOULD REACH WRN ND WITH TROUGH SWD ACROSS
WY/NEB BORDER REGION TO ERN CO.  SRN-STREAM CYCLONE -- NOW APPARENT
IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY -- IS FCST TO
DRIFT ERRATICALLY ACROSS SWRN AZ THROUGH PERIOD...WITH NET SEWD
MOTION TOWARD AZ/MEX BORDER W OF OLS.  CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
VORTICITY MAX SE OF OKC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS ERN MO
OVERNIGHT.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS DEPICTED WEAK COLD FRONT FROM ONT NECK REGION
SSWWD ACROSS SERN LOWER MI AND CENTRAL INDIANA...BECOMING WARM FRONT
WNWWD FROM THERE ACROSS IA/SD TO LOW NEAR EXTREME ERN SECTION OF
MT/WY BORDER.  ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ARCHED FROM THAT LOW SSWWD
ACROSS ERN WY.  LOW SHOULD PIVOT CYCLONICALLY ACROSS NRN SD THROUGH
00Z...WITH COLD FRONT REACHING NEAR PIR...AIA...LAR LINE.  WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE NWD ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST...MERGING WITH INITIALLY
SEPARATE FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH NWRN ONT/LS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DISCUSSED ABOVE.  COMBINED BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATED INVOF
E-CENTRAL/SERN ND...N-CENTRAL MN AND UPPER MI BY 00Z...THAT SEGMENT
MOVING LITTLE THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD AS LOW OCCLUDES OVER NERN/
N-CENTRAL ND.  BY 12Z...COLD FRONT SHOULD ARCH FROM THAT LOW ACROSS
SWRN MN...ERN NEB...NWRN KS AND NERN NM.  NERN CONUS COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD...PRECEDED BY SFC TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...
TWO OR THREE PRIMARY AREAS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
SHIFT GENERALLY EWD ACROSS DAKOTAS...NEB AND NWRN KS FROM MID/LATE
AFTN THROUGH EVENING...INITIALLY NEAR SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT...WITH
DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCNL HAIL POSSIBLE.  STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SFC DEW POINTS GENERALLY 50S F...AND SFC DIABATIC HEATING
WILL PROMOTE MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG...LOCALLY HIGHER.  THESE CAPE
VALUES MOSTLY REPRESENT LOW END OF NUMERICAL-GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...
THANKS TO ANTECEDENT/UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING IN LOW LEVELS
THAT MOST PROGS STILL HAVE POORLY RESOLVED.

REGARDLESS...ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS TO SUPPORT SVR
POTENTIAL.  MODIFIED 12Z REGIONAL RAOBS INDICATE VERY WELL-MIXED AND
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYERS ARE ATTAINABLE IN PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT...
SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE WIND POTENTIAL...ALONG WITH PRIMARY MODAL MIX
OF CLUSTERS AND QUASI-LINEAR ARRANGEMENTS INHERENT TO 25-35 KT
EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES.  PRIMARY HAIL RISK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
EARLY IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE REGIME WHEN STORMS ARE STILL MORE
DISCRETE AND INFLOW-LAYER MLCAPE IS GREATER.

...SRN PLAINS...
SFC ANALYSES SHOW VERY LARGE COLD POOL ACROSS MUCH OF NRN...CENTRAL
AND WRN TX...PRODUCED BY LONG-LASTING AND STILL-ACTIVE MCS THAT
ARCHES FROM CENTRAL OK TO NE TX TO S-CENTRAL TX.  SRN PART OF THIS
COMPLEX REMAINS RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED...ALBEIT AT SUB-SVR
LEVELS...AND PROGRESSIVE SSEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL TX.  ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GETS SHUNTED FARTHER S EACH HOUR.  SUBSTANTIAL
LOW-LEVEL THETAE DEFICIT IS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD POOL -- PARTLY
MANIFEST IN SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F IN IMMEDIATE MCS WAKE...AND
LOW-MID 50S OVER MUCH OF PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN
E OF DRYLINE.  THIS WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY...EVEN GIVEN MULTIPLE HOURS
OF INSOLATION.  AS WITH PREVIOUS OUTLOOK...MODEL PROGS STILL APPEAR
TOO MOIST WITH DEW POINTS AND TOO HIGH WITH CAPE ACROSS MOST OF SRN
HIGH PLAINS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY FORM AGAIN TODAY OVER SW/W TX AND
ERN NM...AMIDST MLCAPE THAT INCREASES WITH SWD EXTENT AND FAVORABLE
DEEP SHEAR.  HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAK/ERRATIC SFC WINDS IN MUCH OF THIS
REGION...SMALL BOUNDARY-LAYER HODOGRAPHS...AND AFOREMENTIONED
THERMODYNAMIC IMPEDIMENTS...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO ISOLATED AND
CONDITIONAL TO FOCUS GREATER THAN MRGL PROBABILITIES ATTM.

...NERN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP TODAY PRIMARILY INVOF
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH...AMIDST RATHER WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING BUT
ALSO WEAK CINH.  ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

DEEP SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED BY VEERED NEAR-SFC FLOW...THOUGH
EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES MAY REACH 30-35 KT OVER SOME OF THIS
AREA.  SEVERAL HOURS OF RELATIVELY STG SFC INSOLATION ARE EXPECTED
ONCE BACK OF CLOUD COVER NOW EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY SHIFTS EWD.  THIS
SHOULD YIELD WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUITABLE FOR STG DOWNDRAFTS
IN ANY SUSTAINED...RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED MULTICELLS.  BUOYANCY
WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT...HOWEVER POCKETS OF
MLCAPE 500-800 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE.

..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 05/30/2016

$$





000
ACUS02 KWNS 300601
SWODY2
SPC AC 300600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN
GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NERN GULF
COAST AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS.  LOCALIZED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND THE
INTERIOR NORTH HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...WRN GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY...
A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD DURING THE
DAY AS A BELT OF MODERATE H5 SW FLOW MOVES TOWARDS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES.  A SURFACE LOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL OCCLUDE AND
PARTIALLY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED.  THE POSSIBILITY FOR STORMS
LINGERING INTO THE MORNING AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD DEBRIS MAY AT LEAST
DELAY DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION.  NONETHELESS...A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD BY AFTERNOON FOCUSING
ISOLD-SCTD STORM DEVELOPMENT.  LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS STREAMING NWD
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO PERHAPS MODERATE BUOYANCY /500-1000 J PER
KG MLCAPE/ BY AFTERNOON.  ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE
EVENING.

...LOWER MO VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
ONE OR MORE WIDELY SPACED CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING DURING
THE MORNING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS ON THE NOSE A WEAKENING
LLJ...AND FARTHER S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.  HEATING TO THE S OF A
SEWD-MOVING FRONT AND/OR EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS...COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S N TO THE
MID-UPPER 60S FARTHER S IN CNTRL TX AND THE ERN HALF OF OK...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO BUOYANCY RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG NORTH TO 3000 J/KG
MLCAPE SOUTH.  WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR OUTFLOW AND THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLD-SCTD STORM CLUSTERS DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR
GENERALLY AOB 25-30 KT WILL RESULT IN MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE
OF ISOLD LARGE HAIL/SEVERE GUSTS.  FARTHER S ACROSS W AND NW
TX...SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WLY 30-40 KT FLOW AT 6 KM WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  PARTS OF W OR NW TX MAY BE
HIGHLIGHTED WITH HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE.

...CNTRL AND NERN GULF COAST INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA...
STRONG HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL FOCUS ISOLD
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION PER MODEL GUIDANCE.  VERY
WARM TEMPS /90 DEG F OR HIGHER/ OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
AND NERN GULF COAST WILL RESULT IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BY
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.  HIGHER LOWEST 100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS
NEAR THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WILL AID IN
WATER-LOADING WITH THE MORE INTENSE PULSE THUNDERSTORMS.  POCKETS OF
45-60 MPH WINDS YIELDING A LOCALIZED WIND-DAMAGE RISK WILL PROBABLY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CORES.  CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL DIMINISH STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY EARLY
EVENING.

..SMITH.. 05/30/2016

$$





000
ACUS11 KWNS 300227
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300227
TXZ000-300430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0784
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0927 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN INTO CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 229...

VALID 300227Z - 300430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 229
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUES
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF STORMS...NOW UNDERCUT BY A SURGING
OUTFLOW...CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED...PROPAGATING IN A SSEWD
DIRECTION IN THE DIRECTION OF UPSTREAM CU DEVELOPMENT SEEN ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY PRIOR TO SUNSET. STORM RELATIVE INFLOW INTO THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS IS ALSO INCREASING PER DYX VAD WINDS...AND SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS JUST DOWNSTREAM AS WELL
WHICH MAY LEAD TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF STORM CORES LATER THIS EVENING.

..JEWELL.. 05/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   32790056 32849995 33059943 33429902 33719846 33789831
            33769752 32249772 31149830 30409913 30300020 30330074
            31060092 32020074 32790056






000
ACUS01 KWNS 300056
SWODY1
SPC AC 300055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTH PLAINS/BIG COUNTRY OF
TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTH NEB/N-CNTRL KS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS PART OF TX BIG BEND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS PART OF NORTHEAST OK/NORTHWEST
AR...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH PLAINS TO BIG COUNTRY OF NORTHWEST TEXAS.

...SOUTH PLAINS/BIG COUNTRY OF TX...
PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST
DOWNSTREAM OF A AN MCS OVER NORTHWEST TX. AN AGITATED CU FIELD IS
EVIDENT SOUTH OF THIS MCS ACROSS THE TX BIG COUNTRY. IT SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE THAT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MCS WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THIS CU FIELD WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR
SEVERE WIND/HAIL. FARTHER SOUTHWEST...STORMS HAVE DECAYED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HOURS OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN. 00Z MIDLAND RAOB SAMPLED
LARGE MLCIN...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION AMID
MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE LIMITED EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH
ADVECTION OF DRY 850-MB AIR FROM EAST TX...WHICH WAS SAMPLED BY 00Z
LAKE CHARLES RAOB.

...SOUTH NEB TO NORTH-CENTRAL KS...
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AMID A
MODEST COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY/SHEAR PER AREA 00Z RAOBS. INGEST OF
CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIR ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KS /AS SAMPLED BY
00Z DODGE CITY RAOB/ ALONG WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING SHOULD RESULT
IN CONVECTION NOCTURNALLY WANING.

..GRAMS.. 05/30/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 291631
SWODY1
SPC AC 291630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SW TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGER PART OF THE SRN
PLNS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL
GRT/LKS/MID-OH VLY...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND
A FEW TORNADOES WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
TWO-STREAM FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
IN THE NRN BRANCH...SYSTEM THAT CROSSED THE CNTRL STATES IN RECENT
DAYS IS NOW OVER LK MI. THE SYSTEM SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT
CONTINUES ENE INTO ERN ONT...ROUNDING N SIDE OF DOMINANT WRN
ATLANTIC RIDGE. IN THE SRN STREAM...LOW NOW OVER THE SRN CA CST
SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY E INTO THE LWR CO VLY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...PRECEDED BY A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE SRN RCKYS/SRN PLNS. FARTHER E IN THE SRN STREAM...TROPICAL
SYSTEM BONNIE HAS WEAKENED TO A TD. PER NHC...LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TURNS NE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF
THE SC CSTL PLNS LATER TDA. SFC FEATURES ALSO WILL REMAIN WEAK
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A FRONTOLYTIC COLD FRONT CROSSING
MI/IND/OH...AND COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DOMINATING THE PATTERN
OVER THE SRN PLNS.

...SRN PLNS TODAY/TNGT...
SSELY LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER WRN
PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLNS AS SRN STREAM JET MAINTAINS LEE TROUGH OVER
ERN NM. OVERNIGHT MCSS OVERTURNED THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF
W CNTRL...N CNTRL...AND S CNTRL TX...BUT LEFT SW TX LARGELY
UNTOUCHED. DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LEE LOW AND CONTINUED LOW-LVL
MOISTURE INFLOW WILL RESULT IN VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOA
3000 J PER KG/ OVER SW TX AND FAR SE NM LATER TODAY...SW OF DIFFUSE
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG A
MAF-SJT AXIS.

HIGH-LVL CLOUDS NOW OVER ERN NM/W TX APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO A
LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE NOW OVER WRN NM...AND TEMPORARILY WILL
DIMINISH SFC HEATING. BUT AS THESE CLOUDS SHIFT EWD LATER
TODAY...COMBINATION OF LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION...MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW...AND ASCENT WITH UPR IMPULSE SHOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCTD INTENSE AFTN/EVE STORMS FROM SE NM SEWD INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN...THE TRANS-PECOS...AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN
TX. OTHER STORMS LIKELY WILL FORM FARTHER N ACROSS ERN NM AND W
TX...IN PART ALONG OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW
OVER PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND NW OK.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...40 KT WLY 500 MB FLOW ATOP 25+ KT
SLY 850 MB WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND TORNADOES IN FAR SE NM AND SW TX. THE
LATTER RISK SHOULD BE GREATEST DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BEFORE ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO ESE-MOVING LARGE
CLUSTERS. HOWEVER...A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT ALSO COULD PERSIST
INTO THE EVE AS LLJ DIURNALLY STRENGTHENS AND INTENSIFIES
CIRCULATIONS WITH RESIDUAL EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

FARTHER N AND E...LARGER TEMP-DEWPOINTS SPREADS/COMPARATIVELY DRIER
LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST A PREDOMINANT MULTICELL MODE WITH STORMS
LIKELY FORMING WITH SFC HEATING AND UPLIFT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS WRN/NRN TX AND OK. NEVERTHELESS...AMPLE
BUOYANCY AND SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SVR HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND AS A
SEPARATE CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS EVOLVES OVER THIS REGION...AND
PERSISTS INTO THE NGT.

...CNTRL LKS/MID OH VLY AFTN/EVE...
WEAK COLD FRONT AND DCVA ON LEADING EDGE OF PROGRESSIVE UPR IMPULSE
SHOULD FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OR TWO OF BROKEN SHOWERS/STORMS
LATER TODAY FROM CNTRL/ERN LWR MI SSW INTO ERN IND/WRN OH. SFC
HEATING COUPLED WITH MID-60S F SFC DEWPOINTS...500 MB TEMPS AROUND
MINUS 12C...AND 30-40 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH SMALL BOWS. THESE MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DMGG
WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE EVE.

...ERN CAROLINAS AFTN/EVE...
ALTHOUGH BONNIE HAS WEAKENED IN THE LAST 12-18 HRS...BELT OF
ENHANCED /25 KT/ SSELY 850-700 MB FLOW ON ERN SIDE OF SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD INLAND ACROSS FAR ERN SC AND S CNTRL/SE NC TODAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...PRECIP SHIELD ON EDGE OF BONNIE HAS FOSTERED DEVELOPMENT OF A
DAMMING-TYPE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD FROM NEAR FLO ACROSS THE NC
SAND HILLS INTO E CNTRL NC. WHILE MODEST STRENGTH OF CIRCULATION OF
BONNIE WILL LIMIT HODOGRAPH SIZE...SOMEWHAT ENHANCED LOW-LVL SRH
WILL EXIST NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WHERE LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN
BACKED TO ENELY. WITH SFC HEATING DESTABILIZING THE LWR
LVLS...CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTN/EVE...BUT OVERALL THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN LOW/ISOLD.

..CORFIDI/COOK.. 05/29/2016

$$





000
ACUS02 KWNS 290601
SWODY2
SPC AC 290600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SD INTO W-CNTRL AND CNTRL
NEB AND NWRN KS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWD INTO
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR A SMALL PORTION OF NRN NEW
ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ISOLATED STRONG TO PERHAPS
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES/SRN
ALBERTA ESEWD TO THE MT/ND BORDER AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.  BROAD SW MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER ERN CANADA AND
NEW ENGLAND WILL BE LOCATED AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS CNTRL ONTARIO.  MODERATE H5 WLY/S OVER PARTS OF W TX
WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK TROUGH/LOW CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW.

...DAKOTAS INTO NWRN KS...
AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BLACK HILLS MONDAY
AFTERNOON.  SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWD WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S NEAR THE LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE WITH LOWER 60S FARTHER E OVER THE SANDHILLS AND THE
MO RIVER.  STRONG HEATING WILL WEAKEN THE CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON
INVOF THE TROUGH/DRYLINE --EXTENDING SWD FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS-- AND PROBABLY FOCUS ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL OVER THE WARM SECTOR
WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35 KT OVER NWRN SD TO 25-30 KT FARTHER S
IN NEB/NWRN KS.  ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  A CLUSTER OR TWO OF
STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS SD AND
POSSIBLY FARTHER S ON THE NOSE OF AN INTENSIFYING CNTRL PLAINS LLJ
AHEAD OF A SEWD SURGING COLD FRONT.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
THE FORECAST FOR DAY 2 IS SOMEWHAT CONTINGENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY.  THE DRYLINE AND
ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL POTENTIALLY SERVE AS FOCI FOR
LATE DAY STORMS.  STRONG HEATING IN AREAS VOID OF PREVIOUS NIGHT
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/EARLY-DAY CLOUD DEBRIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
STRONG DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG FORECAST BY
MID AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL WLY/S WILL BE MODEST FOR AREAS GENERALLY N
OF THE PERMIAN BASIN FAVORING PRIMARILY A MULTICELLULAR MODE.
STRONGER WIND PROFILES FARTHER S WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT COUPLED WITH THE STRONG BUOYANCY.  ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL/SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING.

...NEW ENGLAND...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM BONNIE WILL SHEAR NEWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS DURING THE DAY.  IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR WHERE STRONGER
HEATING OCCURS FARTHER NW FROM NEAR THE ADIRONDACKS INTO NRN NEW
ENGLAND AMIDST AN ADEQUATELY MOIST AIRMASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S/.  YET...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION ONLY SHOW
MARGINAL BUOYANCY DEVELOPING BY PEAK HEATING DESPITE MODERATELY
STRONG WIND PROFILES.  AS SUCH...A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSE PRIMARILY A LOW-PROBABILITY
WIND DAMAGE RISK BEFORE STORMS MOVE E OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND
DIURNAL STABILIZATION OCCURS BY EARLY EVENING.

..SMITH.. 05/29/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 290601
SWODY1
SPC AC 290559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS COASTAL SC/FAR S NC...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL FURTHER DAMPEN AS
IT TRACKS INTO ONTARIO. A SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST OFF
THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TOWARDS AZ. A
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE SHOULD HOLD IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED FROM SOUTHEAST CO
TO THE TRANS-PECOS THIS AFTERNOON.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
LOW CONFIDENCE THIS FORECAST GIVEN THE POOR HANDLING BY BOTH
CONVECTIVELY PARAMETERIZED AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS WITH
ONGOING CLUSTERS OVER NORTH TX...INCONSISTENT SIGNALS WITH
WAA-DRIVEN STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH AROUND 12Z THIS
MORNING...AND NEBULOUS UPPER PATTERN. MAIN ADJUSTMENT THIS OUTLOOK
IS TO FOCUS HIGHER HAZARD PROBABILITIES SOUTHWARD WHERE DURATION OF
DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE GREATEST.

THE RICH MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 70S SURFACE DEW
POINTS IS PREVALENT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL OK THROUGH CENTRAL TX AHEAD
OF ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS OVER NORTH TX AND THE EASTERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE POOR IN HANDLING THE
NORTH TX CONVECTION...WHICH IS CURRENTLY LIMITING THE NORTHWEST
RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...NAM/GFS AND A COUPLE OF
HRRR-PARALLEL RUNS SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION
AROUND 12Z NEAR THE TX/OK PANHANDLE WHERE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WAA IS
PROGGED. THESE MODELS GROW THIS CONVECTION UPSCALE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. OTHER
GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT THIS STRONG OF A CONVECTIVE
SIGNAL...RENDERING SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK LATER TODAY.

THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL PROBABLY EXIST
FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHEAST NM TO THE TRANS-PECOS WHERE
MLCAPE SHOULD BECOME LARGE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...GIVEN STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A
FEW SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR LARGE AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL.
WITH MODERATE INTENSIFICATION OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE
EVENING...STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX WITH THE THREAT
TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WIND.  A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS/PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS AROUND
EARLY EVENING.

...CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAINTAINING A FETCH OF
MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. AS THE TRAILING PORTION OF WEAK
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE DESTABILIZING WARM
SECTOR...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. RELATIVELY
MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR OWING TO BACKING OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD FOSTER A MULTICELL MODE. A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS IN THE EVENING.

...COASTAL SC/FAR SOUTH NC...
TC BONNIE IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE SC COAST
TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY. A COMPACT CORRIDOR OF
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD YIELD A MODERATELY
ENLARGED HODOGRAPH /MOST LIKELY THIS MORNING/. THIS MIGHT SUPPORT A
BRIEF WATERSPOUT/TORNADO AS SHOWERS MOVE ONSHORE.

..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 05/29/2016

$$





000
ACUS11 KWNS 290131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290130
WIZ000-ILZ000-290230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0830 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SE WI...N-CNTRL/CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225...

VALID 290130Z - 290230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WW 225 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z AND CAN GENERALLY BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z...ALTHOUGH LOCAL TEMPORAL EXTENSION MAY BE
CONSIDERED ACROSS CNTRL IL.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A LINE OF
TSTMS EXTENDING FROM SE WI SSWWD BACK INTO CNTRL IL. THE PORTION OF
THIS LINE IN SE WI AND N-CNTRL IL HAS SHOWN EPISODIC UPDRAFT
INTENSIFICATION...PRIMARILY AS OLDER UPDRAFTS INTERACT WITH NEWER
UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NEWD AT 30-35 KT...TAKING IT INTO WRN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 02Z /THE
WATCH EXPIRATION TIME/. AS SUCH...THE WATCH HERE WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 02Z. BEFORE THEN...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

FARTHER S /CNTRL IL/...00Z ILX SOUNDING SAMPLED AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WITH SBCAPE OVER 2500 J PER KG. THE VERTICAL SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE
SOUNDING IS RATHER WEAK /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 23 KT AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 25 KT/...SUGGESTING ANY STORM ORGANIZATION WOULD BE BRIEF.
EVEN SO...SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY AS A RESULT OF UPDRAFT INTERACTIONS. LOCAL
TEMPORAL EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED IN THIS AREA IF STORMS DO NOT BEGIN
TO SHOW A DIMINISHING TREND.

..MOSIER.. 05/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   40279092 40269046 40709044 40709000 40959000 40978967
            41218964 41248988 41608988 41588962 42208969 42238992
            42498993 42518980 43238981 43988962 43978889 43898890
            43898842 43948830 43898816 43888780 43888771 43668772
            43458785 43188791 42838781 42768775 42478781 42498819
            42158820 42148857 41628863 41618917 41098915 40918890
            40708893 40578929 40338925 40328961 40138961 40128994
            40089035 39969057 40109071 40109093 40279092






000
ACUS01 KWNS 281302
SWODY1
SPC AC 281300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SW TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM SW TX TO RED
RIVER VALLEY REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIOSN MID/UPER MS VALLEY
REGION...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION AND NEARBY
AREAS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.  ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY FORM OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD
OVER CENTRAL CONUS AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION.  WEAK LOW NOW OVER ERN
NEB IS FCST TO DEVOLVE INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AND SLOWLY EJECT ENEWD
TODAY...REACHING SWRN MN...WRN IA AND KS/MO BORDER REGION BY 00Z.
NEAR END OF PERIOD...TROUGH SHOULD REACH TO NEAR DLH...UIN...PAH
LINE.  IN SRN STREAM...WEAK TROUGH WITH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE ASHORE CA TONIGHT....PRECEDED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER PORTIONS UT/AZ/NM.

AT SFC...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH CENTRAL PLAINS PERTURBATION WAS
ANALYZED AT 11Z IN YKN/FSD AREA...WITH WAVY WARM FRONT ENEWD THROUGH
SECONDARY LOW NEAR LSE AND ACROSS S-CENTRAL WI...CENTRAL LOWER MI...
AND NRN NY.  WEAK COLD FRONT ARCHED FROM WRN LOW THROUGH ERN KS...
CENTRAL OK...NW TX AND SERN NM.  ENTIRE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE SLOWLY NEWD THROUGH PERIOD...REACHING LS BY 12Z...AND PROBABLY
CONTINUING TO EXHIBIT MULTIPLE/WEAK PRESSURE MINIMA.  WARM FRONT
SHOULD MOVE NWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA...WHILE TRAILING
COLD FRONT STALLS AND BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME.  OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM PRIOR MCS ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM NWRN GULF WNWWD ACROSS
S-CENTRAL TX BETWEEN SAT-COT AND INTO WEAK SFC LOW AND DRYLINE
INTERSECTION JUST UPRIVER FROM DRT.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT
NWD ACROSS SWRN/CENTRAL TX THROUGH PERIOD...PERMITTING NWWD RETURN
OF RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS COMMONLY UPPER 60S TO 70S F.

...TX...
HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS
SUCH...UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE WEAK AT BEST...THOUGH
RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG SFC HEATING SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MDT TO LOCALLY EXTREME BUOYANCY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND
S OF BOUNDARY.  MLCAPE MAY REACH 3500-5000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL/SW TX...BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  AS
MLCINH WEAKENS...ESPECIALLY INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE
WILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED AMIDST OTHERWISE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW...
SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS.  35-40 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDE INDICATES
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED MODES OF ACTIVITY EARLY...INCLUDING ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS...SHORT-LIVED/HP SUPERCELLS...AND CLUSTERED CONVECTION.
THESE MAY ORGANIZE INTO LARGER CLUSTERS OR A SMALL MCS THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE OVER THIS REGION...CAPPING COMBINED WITH NEBULOUS FOCI FOR
CONVECTION INITIATION RENDER POTENTIAL COVERAGE ONLY ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED...AND HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON MORE SUBTLE...MESOBETA-
AND SMALLER-SCALE BOUNDARIES.

...UPPER MS VALLEY TO NRN MO/WRN IL REGION...
GRADUAL EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID/LATE AFTN ACROSS THIS REGION WHILE ENTIRE REGIME SHIFTS
GENERALLY NEWD.  ONE OR MORE ARCS OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FROM
NRN/ERN MO ACROSS IA TOWARD SERN MN...MOVING INTO PORTIONS IL/WI
WITH TIME.  FRAGMENTED MOISTURE FIELD AND WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD KEEP MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG OVER MOST OF
THIS AREA...WHILE DEEP SHEAR REMAINS MRGL AS UPPER SYSTEM WEAKENS.
MRGLLY SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MORE
INTENSE/PERSISTENT CELLS.  WHILE TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT INVOF SLOWLY MIGRATING LOW-PRESSURE AREA...WEAKNESS OF THAT AS
WELL AS OF ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FIELDS AND NEAR-SFC WIND FIELDS
SHOULD KEEP HODOGRAPHS AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS RELATIVELY SMALL.
EXCEPTION MAY BE WHERE LOCALIZED/LOW-PREDICTABILITY BOUNDARY OR
STORM-SCALE PROCESSES DOMINATE MESOSCALE TO SUBSYNOPTIC FORCINGS.
AS SUCH...OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL FOR
MORE THAN MRGL PROBABILITIES.

...OZARKS AND VICINITY...
LACK OF BOUNDARY-LAYER LIFT ALONG/AHEAD OF WEAKENING FRONT FARTHER S
LIKELY ACCOUNTS FOR DEARTH OF CONVECTION IN MOST PROGS FROM CENTRAL
MO THROUGH OZARKS TO ERN OK/WRN AR.  PRIND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/
INTENSITY WILL BE TOO LOW TODAY TO MAINTAIN EVEN MRGL SVR
PROBABILITIES.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS -- T.D. 2...
LATEST NHC GUIDANCE BRINGS CENTER OF CIRCULATION CLOSE TO COAST AS
MRGL TROPICAL STORM AFTER END OF PERIOD...BUT WITH INCREASE IN BOTH
CONVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AROUND NRN
PERIPHERY OF CIRCULATION...OVER EXTREME ERN SC AND SRN NC COASTS.
ATTM...FCST WIND FIELDS APPEAR TOO WEAK FOR UNCONDITIONAL TORNADO
PROBABILITIES...WITH CURVED BUT RATHER SMALL LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AND 0-1 KM SRH BELOW 100 J/KG IN FCST SOUNDINGS.  06-12Z TIME FRAME
ALSO WILL REPRESENT NOCTURNAL MIN IN INLAND BUOYANCY.  FOR NOW...
GIVEN THOSE FACTORS...WILL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING MRGL TORNADO
PROBABILITIES FOR LATE PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR INSTABILITY/
WIND TRENDS.  SOME RISK MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED FOR SMALL SEGMENT
OF COASTAL CAROLINAS FOR LATE TONIGHT IF WHAT NOW IS STILL T.D. 2
BECOMES STRONGER AND/OR MORE EXPANSIVE THAN CURRENTLY FCST.  SEE NHC
BULLETINS UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC FOR LATEST GUIDANCE ON TRACK
AND INTENSITY...AS WELL AS TROPICAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THIS
SYSTEM.

..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 05/28/2016

$$





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