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000
ACUS11 KWNS 020743
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020743
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-020945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0530
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...WEST LA...SOUTH AR

CONCERNING...01Z OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 020743Z - 020945Z

SUMMARY...THE REGION IS EFFECTIVELY UPGRADED TO MARGINAL/SLIGHT
RISKS THROUGH THE REST OF THE CURRENT OUTLOOK PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING WITHIN THE SWATH OF
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTH AR. PRESENCE OF
ROBUST SPEED SHEAR WITHIN THE ELEVATED BUOYANT LAYER CONTINUES TO
FOSTER UPDRAFT ROTATION PROMOTING LARGE HAIL GROWTH FROM SPLITTING
CELLS. THE LARGELY DISCRETE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED
WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW
REGIME IN LEFT-EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET...STORMS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

..GRAMS/GOSS.. 05/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   31719613 32589463 33559245 33839148 33609098 33209087
            32709108 30359275 29669327 29249451 30019587 31009636
            31719613






000
ACUS03 KWNS 020706
SWODY3
SPC AC 020705

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WEDNESDAY...A FEW MAY BE SEVERE.

...FL PENINSULA...

SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE ERN GULF
BASIN AS HEIGHTS FALL WITHIN A BROADER LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN
U.S.  THIS SRN-MOST FEATURE WILL AID ASCENT AND INCREASE BULK SHEAR
ACROSS THE PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY ALONG THE WIND SHIFT AND SHOULD
CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES INTO SOUTH FL BY 05/00Z.
SEASONALLY HIGH PW PLUME SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE WARM SECTOR WITH
MUCAPE LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG.  WLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY...HENCE ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS
COULD EVOLVE.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ROBUST UPDRAFTS...GUSTY WINDS/HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..DARROW.. 05/02/2016

$$





000
ACUS03 KWNS 020706
SWODY3
SPC AC 020705

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WEDNESDAY...A FEW MAY BE SEVERE.

...FL PENINSULA...

SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE ERN GULF
BASIN AS HEIGHTS FALL WITHIN A BROADER LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN
U.S.  THIS SRN-MOST FEATURE WILL AID ASCENT AND INCREASE BULK SHEAR
ACROSS THE PENINSULA EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY ALONG THE WIND SHIFT AND SHOULD
CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES INTO SOUTH FL BY 05/00Z.
SEASONALLY HIGH PW PLUME SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE WARM SECTOR WITH
MUCAPE LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG.  WLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY...HENCE ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS
COULD EVOLVE.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ROBUST UPDRAFTS...GUSTY WINDS/HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..DARROW.. 05/02/2016

$$





000
ACUS11 KWNS 020608
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020607
LAZ000-TXZ000-020800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...FAR WEST LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 020607Z - 020800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SPORADIC OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS PERSIST. HAIL
SIZE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE AT MOST...BUT A STORM
OR TWO MIGHT PRODUCE GOLF BALLS.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED STORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED NORTH OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS PRESENT ALONG THE TX TO LA COASTAL
PLAIN. RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN
MODESTLY BUOYANT MUCAPE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG ATOP MOIST-ADIABATIC
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ROBUST SPEED SHEAR WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF
AN UPPER JET IS LIKELY CO-LOCATED WITH THIS ELEVATED BUOYANT LAYER
AND WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SPLITTING CELLS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. LARGER HAIL SIZES MAY BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE BUOYANCY IS SOMEWHAT GREATER AND CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN MORE DISCRETE COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH.

..GRAMS/GOSS.. 05/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30119752 31319617 32159493 32319410 32189344 31719283
            30909263 30169283 29789358 29419487 29469579 29549715
            29689748 30119752






000
ACUS11 KWNS 020608
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020607
LAZ000-TXZ000-020800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...FAR WEST LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 020607Z - 020800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SPORADIC OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS PERSIST. HAIL
SIZE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE AT MOST...BUT A STORM
OR TWO MIGHT PRODUCE GOLF BALLS.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED STORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED NORTH OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS PRESENT ALONG THE TX TO LA COASTAL
PLAIN. RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING WITHIN
MODESTLY BUOYANT MUCAPE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG ATOP MOIST-ADIABATIC
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ROBUST SPEED SHEAR WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF
AN UPPER JET IS LIKELY CO-LOCATED WITH THIS ELEVATED BUOYANT LAYER
AND WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SPLITTING CELLS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. LARGER HAIL SIZES MAY BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL PLAIN WHERE BUOYANCY IS SOMEWHAT GREATER AND CONVECTION MAY
REMAIN MORE DISCRETE COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH.

..GRAMS/GOSS.. 05/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30119752 31319617 32159493 32319410 32189344 31719283
            30909263 30169283 29789358 29419487 29469579 29549715
            29689748 30119752






000
ACUS01 KWNS 020556
SWODY1
SPC AC 020555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL
EITHER SIDE A BUILDING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE AXIS AND
EMBEDDED HIGH BECOMING CENTERED NEAR THE ALBERTA/MONTANA BORDER AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD.  DOWNSTREAM OF A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THIS FEATURE /ONE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY...ANOTHER THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS/...FLOW WILL REMAIN BROADLY CONFLUENT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.
 AN INITIAL PERTURBATION EMERGING FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROUGHING
OVER THE WEST THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES THROUGH THIS REGIME.  BUT AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED
UPSTREAM IMPULSE /CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS/...MAY
STILL MAINTAIN A NOTABLE IDENTITY AS IT ACCELERATES ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.

ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LATTER FEATURE...A BELT OF
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY REMAIN MOSTLY TO
THE COOL SIDE OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ADVANCING ACROSS/SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND
WESTERN GULF COAST REGION.  EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...THIS FRONT
MAY REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST REGION...WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING DEEPENS
DURING THE DAY TO THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

...WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST...
WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED BY THIS
AFTERNOON...NEAR AND EAST OF LEE SURFACE TROUGHING.  CAPE AROUND
1000-2000 J/KG...IN THE PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.  STORM COVERAGE TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD AFTER
21-22Z...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION.

STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...DUE TO SOMEWHAT STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND BACKED/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE DELMARVA INTO CENTRAL MARYLAND/NORTHERN VIRGINIA.  AIDED BY
FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE...ON THE
NOSE OF STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MIXING TO THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS...BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
WITHIN THE AXIS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS MORE UNCERTAIN TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  STRENGTHENING OF
PRE-FRONTAL LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MEAN WIND FIELDS TO AT LEAST
30-40 KTS MAY BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THE IMPACT OF A RESIDUAL CONVECTIVELY GENERATED BOUNDARY NOW
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REMAINS UNCLEAR.  IT
CURRENTLY SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT AN IMPULSE WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
STREAM COULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST.  IN BETWEEN...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS INCREASINGLY UNCLEAR.

..KERR/PICCA.. 05/02/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 020556
SWODY1
SPC AC 020555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL
EITHER SIDE A BUILDING WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE AXIS AND
EMBEDDED HIGH BECOMING CENTERED NEAR THE ALBERTA/MONTANA BORDER AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD.  DOWNSTREAM OF A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THIS FEATURE /ONE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON BAY...ANOTHER THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS/...FLOW WILL REMAIN BROADLY CONFLUENT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.
 AN INITIAL PERTURBATION EMERGING FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROUGHING
OVER THE WEST THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES THROUGH THIS REGIME.  BUT AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED
UPSTREAM IMPULSE /CURRENTLY EMERGING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS/...MAY
STILL MAINTAIN A NOTABLE IDENTITY AS IT ACCELERATES ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.

ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LATTER FEATURE...A BELT OF
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY REMAIN MOSTLY TO
THE COOL SIDE OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ADVANCING ACROSS/SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND
WESTERN GULF COAST REGION.  EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...THIS FRONT
MAY REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST REGION...WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING DEEPENS
DURING THE DAY TO THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

...WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST...
WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED BY THIS
AFTERNOON...NEAR AND EAST OF LEE SURFACE TROUGHING.  CAPE AROUND
1000-2000 J/KG...IN THE PRESENCE OF 30-40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.  STORM COVERAGE TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD AFTER
21-22Z...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION.

STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...DUE TO SOMEWHAT STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND BACKED/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE DELMARVA INTO CENTRAL MARYLAND/NORTHERN VIRGINIA.  AIDED BY
FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE...ON THE
NOSE OF STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MIXING TO THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS...BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
WITHIN THE AXIS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY...
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS MORE UNCERTAIN TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  STRENGTHENING OF
PRE-FRONTAL LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MEAN WIND FIELDS TO AT LEAST
30-40 KTS MAY BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TENNESSEE
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO...THE IMPACT OF A RESIDUAL CONVECTIVELY GENERATED BOUNDARY NOW
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REMAINS UNCLEAR.  IT
CURRENTLY SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT AN IMPULSE WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
STREAM COULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST.  IN BETWEEN...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS INCREASINGLY UNCLEAR.

..KERR/PICCA.. 05/02/2016

$$





000
ACUS11 KWNS 020538
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020538
TXZ000-020745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0528
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 020538Z - 020745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SUPERCELL ALONG THE NUEVO LEON AND TAMAULIPAS BORDER
SHOULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON ITS CURRENT
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. LARGE HAIL /INCLUDING HAIL ABOVE 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER/...SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT MAY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL DUE WEST OF ZAPATA COUNTY IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST AROUND 25 KT. EXTRAPOLATION RESULTS IN THE HAIL CORE
REACHING THE RIO GRANDE BETWEEN 0630-0700Z. WITH MODEST EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS PER CORPUS CHRISTI/BROWNSVILLE VWP
DATA...SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MAINTENANCE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY
IS IN THE DEGREE OF MLCIN AND ITS SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON THE LONGEVITY
OF THIS SUPERCELL. BUT GIVEN ITS WELL-DEVELOPED NATURE AT BASE RADAR
SCANS /WHICH ARE STILL AROUND 20000 FT AGL AT THIS TIME/...IT SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS SUPERCELL WILL AFFECT AT LEAST A COUPLE COUNTIES
IN DEEP SOUTH TX.

..GRAMS/GOSS.. 05/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

LAT...LON   27069944 27019898 26819854 26469828 26179840 26279890
            26519927 26819947 27069944






000
ACUS02 KWNS 020512
SWODY2
SPC AC 020511

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SERN U.S. AND FL
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC
REGION TUESDAY.  GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC/SERN U.S...

WEAK LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC/SERN U.S. AHEAD OF DIGGING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  WHILE
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONGLY
CONVERGENT...SYNOPTIC FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...LIKELY AIDED BY A
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT SHOULD EJECT ACROSS THIS
REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.  EARLY DAY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
SUGGEST STRONGEST BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS ACTIVITY LATER IN THE DAY.  FARTHER SOUTH...SCT CONVECTION
SHOULD TRAIL ALONG/NEAR THE BOUNDARY INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO LIMIT BUOYANCY AS LAPSE RATES WILL
STRUGGLE TO STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY.  EVEN SO...STRENGTHENING SHEAR
PROFILES AHEAD OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH SUGGEST SOME CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE.  GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS.

...FL PENINSULA...

EARLY-MORNING WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW-LATITUDE BRANCH OF WLYS
EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF BASIN.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS SLY BRANCH MAY INCREASE IN SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE SERN CONUS.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A
WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COULD TOP THE LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
GULF BASIN AND APPROACH SOUTH FL TUESDAY.  IF SO...A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS PRE-FRONTAL FEATURE.
FOR THIS REASON HAVE INTRODUCED CAT1 SEVERE FOR FL PENINSULA.

..DARROW.. 05/02/2016

$$





000
ACUS11 KWNS 020122
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020121
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-020315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0527
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0821 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA...FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWESTERN OHIO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136...

VALID 020121Z - 020315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS. THEREAFTER...CELLS SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL ROBUST SUPERCELLS ARE PUSHING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. RECENT
KIND VWP DATA DEPICT A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF CYCLONIC
ROTATION...AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER TO VIGOROUS WESTERLY
FLOW AT/ABOVE 6 KM AGL. FURTHERMORE...SEVERAL ZDR ARC SIGNATURES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...DEPICTING RAIN DROP SIZE SORTING WITHIN A
VEERING STORM-RELATIVE WIND PROFILE. THESE CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND PERIODIC LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES.

FARTHER EAST...A NORTHWARD-PROGRESSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
INITIATING NEW CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OHIO. MOST
LIKELY...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALTER THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT
ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE INDIANA CELLS MOVING EAST WILL WEAKEN OVER
TIME. ADDITIONALLY...RELATIVELY LOW SFC DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...STABILIZING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. AS SUCH...DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.

..PICCA.. 05/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   38838812 40358693 40518525 40348370 40008299 38858311
            38818386 38818484 38418645 38258773 38418819 38638822
            38838812






000
ACUS01 KWNS 020100
SWODY1
SPC AC 020058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AREAS TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS.

...EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES ARE GENERALLY DIMINISHING
ACROSS MOST AREAS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WANES WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

A STILL FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED 60-70 KT
500 MB JET STREAK ARE IN THE PROCESS OF ACCELERATING EAST OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND SUPPORTING/ENHANCING NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.  THIS IS IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW...WHERE WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY
LAYER INSTABILITY LINGERS.  A FURTHER INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE
APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH 02-04Z.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY SPREAD EASTWARD WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONTAL LOW...TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.  THE
TENDENCY...HOWEVER...SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO ADVANCE INTO A LESS
UNSTABLE/STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT...AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO LOWER/MID TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...
THE SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF A SIGNIFICANT INTRUSION OF COOL AIR TO
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
TEXAS BIG BEND REGION AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAINS POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO
STRONG...BUT WARM MID-LEVELS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO CONSIDERABLE
INHIBITION.  THIS MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT...AS PRIMARY
MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE ACCELERATING NORTH OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.  IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MORE SUBTLE IMPULSES WITHIN
THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT.  HOWEVER... SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL...IN GENERAL...SEEMS INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN.

..KERR.. 05/02/2016

$$





000
ACUS11 KWNS 012330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012330
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-020030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0526
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY / SRN WV / WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 134...

VALID 012330Z - 020030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 134
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE POSSIBILITY FOR MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND
LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 134 AND LIKELY EXTEND INTO WRN PARTS OF VA IN THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS.  A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO THE EAST OF THE EXISTING
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED SOON.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN KY AND SRN
WV WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS EARLY
THIS EVENING.  WHILE THIS ACTIVITY IS REMOVED FROM STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT --LOCATED FARTHER W OVER THE OH VALLEY-- STRONG MID TO
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EWD PROGRESSION AND STORM
ORGANIZATION/VENTING NEEDED FOR STORMS TO MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED
SEVERE RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  THE LOSS OF HEATING WILL ACT TO
GRADUALLY PROMOTE BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION BUT AROUND 1000 J PER
KG MUCAPE AND AROUND 40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT WEAK
SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTER INTO THE MID
EVENING HOURS.

..SMITH.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   37728284 38298189 37907924 37337924 36647998 36678107
            37248314 37728284






000
ACUS11 KWNS 012330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012330
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-020030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0526
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY / SRN WV / WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 134...

VALID 012330Z - 020030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 134
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE POSSIBILITY FOR MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND
LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 134 AND LIKELY EXTEND INTO WRN PARTS OF VA IN THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS.  A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO THE EAST OF THE EXISTING
WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED SOON.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN KY AND SRN
WV WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS EARLY
THIS EVENING.  WHILE THIS ACTIVITY IS REMOVED FROM STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT --LOCATED FARTHER W OVER THE OH VALLEY-- STRONG MID TO
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EWD PROGRESSION AND STORM
ORGANIZATION/VENTING NEEDED FOR STORMS TO MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED
SEVERE RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  THE LOSS OF HEATING WILL ACT TO
GRADUALLY PROMOTE BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION BUT AROUND 1000 J PER
KG MUCAPE AND AROUND 40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT WEAK
SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTER INTO THE MID
EVENING HOURS.

..SMITH.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   37728284 38298189 37907924 37337924 36647998 36678107
            37248314 37728284






000
ACUS11 KWNS 012249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012248
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-020015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0548 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN/MIDDLE TN...WESTERN/CENTRAL
KY...AND FAR SOUTHERN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 133...

VALID 012248Z - 020015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 133
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF WATCH 133.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS GENERALLY TRENDED
DOWNWARD OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AS FORCING FOR ASCENT
/ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE IMPULSE OVER THE OH VALLEY/ DEPARTS THE
REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
REPORT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AS AMPLE SHEAR UPWARDS OF 40-50 KTS
PROMOTES ORGANIZATION/ROTATION IN THE MOST ROBUST UPDRAFTS. SUCH A
THREAT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. FARTHER WEST...WHILE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS POSSIBLE...A LACK OF GREATER
FORCING FOR ASCENT ALOFT SHOULD KEEP STRONGER CONVECTION /IF ANY
DEVELOPS/ QUITE LIMITED IN COVERAGE.

..PICCA.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35178960 36908837 38208766 38718629 39088466 38988310
            38738297 37068490 35678641 35028764 34978935 35178960






000
ACUS11 KWNS 012215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012214
SCZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-012315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0524
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND W-CNTRL NC / N-CNTRL SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 012214Z - 012315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY SUPERCELL OR
MORE INTENSE MULTICELL EARLY THIS EVENING.  EXPECTED STORM COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...ISOLD HAIL-PRODUCING STORMS OVER THE SC PIEDMONT NWD
INTO WRN PORTIONS OF NC HAVE EXHIBITED MRMS HAIL-SIZE SIGNATURES IN
THE 0.75-1.75 INCH RANGE DURING THE PAST HOUR.  SURFACE CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS CHARACTERIZE
THE AREA AND HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SBCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.  30-35 KT
6-KM FLOW HAS YIELD DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A MIX MODE OF
SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELLS.  WHILE STORM COVERAGE IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED EARLY THIS EVENING...THE RISK
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADUAL BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION OCCURS.

..SMITH/HART.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   34318133 35438206 36418173 36578122 36388090 34358070
            34318133






000
ACUS11 KWNS 012207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012206
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-020000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0523
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0506 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ILLINOIS AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 012206Z - 020000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING. AS IT CONTINUES IN THIS DIRECTION...INCREASING MID-LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD ENCOURAGE MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE GROWTH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. INDEED...SIGNS OF THIS ARE
ALREADY APPEARING IN A SLOWLY ORGANIZING LINE SEGMENT NORTH OF ST.
LOUIS. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
STEEP...ENOUGH SFC HEATING HAS OCCURRED SUCH THAT AROUND 500-1000
J/KG OF MLCAPE HAS MATERIALIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. FURTHERMORE...STRONG WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND AROUND 50 KTS
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SPLITTING CELLS AND SOME SMALL
BOWING SEGMENTS...IF CONVECTION SUFFICIENTLY DEVELOPS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THESE CELLS WOULD BE STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..PICCA/HART.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   38989022 39319034 40118925 40578845 40688682 40638538
            40468497 39968483 39778487 39238494 39028509 38568670
            38268810 38158968 38249001 38989022






000
ACUS11 KWNS 011959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011959
WVZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-012100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...SW/W WV...FAR SW VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 011959Z - 012100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION WILL SOME SVR HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL SVR
THREAT.

DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO HEAT UP
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH INITIAL CINH NOW COMPLETELY ERODED.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT LOWER HERE THAN AREAS FARTHER
W...CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY /LATEST MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATES MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG/. EVEN WITH LESS
INSTABILITY...BULK SHEAR SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VADS AND ESTIMATED BY
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED/POSSIBLY SCATTERED SEVERE THREAT
MAY MATERIALIZE AS TSTM COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
PERSISTENT HEATING AND SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. WW WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SOON TO ADDRESS THIS SVR THREAT.

..MOSIER/DIAL.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...

LAT...LON   37288115 36978373 37678373 38628274 39028227 39168199
            39388102 39148052 38518036 37288115






000
ACUS11 KWNS 011959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011959
WVZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-012100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...SW/W WV...FAR SW VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 011959Z - 012100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION WILL SOME SVR HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO COVER THE POTENTIAL SVR
THREAT.

DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO HEAT UP
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH INITIAL CINH NOW COMPLETELY ERODED.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT LOWER HERE THAN AREAS FARTHER
W...CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY /LATEST MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATES MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG/. EVEN WITH LESS
INSTABILITY...BULK SHEAR SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VADS AND ESTIMATED BY
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS AN ISOLATED/POSSIBLY SCATTERED SEVERE THREAT
MAY MATERIALIZE AS TSTM COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
PERSISTENT HEATING AND SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT. WW WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SOON TO ADDRESS THIS SVR THREAT.

..MOSIER/DIAL.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...

LAT...LON   37288115 36978373 37678373 38628274 39028227 39168199
            39388102 39148052 38518036 37288115






000
ACUS01 KWNS 011935
SWODY1
SPC AC 011933

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN TN ACROSS KY AND INTO
SRN IN AND OH...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY
INTO THE SERN STATES AND OVER SRN TX...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WIND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. MORE ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST AND SOUTH TEXAS.

...OH VALLEY INTO TN...
STORMS ARE INCREASING ALONG A WEAK SFC TROUGH FROM WRN KY INTO
TN...WHERE STRONG HEATING CONTINUES AND WITH RELATIVELY LONG
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL. AS SUCH...HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK SWD. OTHER STORMS ARE
ALSO LIKELY LATER TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EWD AND
INTERACTS WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. LARGE HAIL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

...SRN TX...
A STALLED FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR SERN TX INTO THE MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH CONVERGENCE REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW OVER SWRN
LA. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A SELY LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES AND AID IN LIFT WARM ADVECTION.

..JEWELL.. 05/01/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016/

...OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL LOW OVER NW MO/SW IA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO DE-AMPLIFY INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE MOVING EWD TO IL/INDIANA BY
THIS EVENING...AND OH/WRN PA OVERNIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE GENERALLY EWD ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS IL/INDIANA/OH...IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH.  THE WARM
SECTOR S OF THE BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF 60-64 F...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY
INTO THE 75-80 F RANGE IN SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD BREAKS.  THE NET RESULT
WILL BE MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J PER KG/ AND
LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ALONG AND S OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE OH RIVER...PRIMARILY IN
RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
AND POSSIBLY STORM SPLITS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS EWD TOWARD WV
THIS AFTERNOON.  FARTHER N...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD ALSO
FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
FROM SE IL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE EVENING.

...SE STATES THIS AFTERNOON...
ONGOING CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER LA/MS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD
TOWARD THE NRN GULF SHELF WATERS...AND SPREAD EWD INTO AL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.  OTHER STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS
NRN SC THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A LOOSE CLUSTER OF STORMS INTERACTS WITH
A SURFACE FRONT.

...S TX/RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD INTO S TX...BUT A STRONG
CAP IS PRESENT PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION.  IT IS MORE PROBABLE
THAT STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS W-SW OF DRT...BUT IF AND
HOW FAR THESE STORMS MAKE IT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE IS NOT CLEAR.
WILL LEAVE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO COVER THE CONDITIONAL RISK
FOR BOTH SCENARIOS.

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 011935
SWODY1
SPC AC 011933

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN TN ACROSS KY AND INTO
SRN IN AND OH...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY
INTO THE SERN STATES AND OVER SRN TX...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WIND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. MORE ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST AND SOUTH TEXAS.

...OH VALLEY INTO TN...
STORMS ARE INCREASING ALONG A WEAK SFC TROUGH FROM WRN KY INTO
TN...WHERE STRONG HEATING CONTINUES AND WITH RELATIVELY LONG
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL. AS SUCH...HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK SWD. OTHER STORMS ARE
ALSO LIKELY LATER TODAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EWD AND
INTERACTS WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR OVER INDIANA AND OHIO. LARGE HAIL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

...SRN TX...
A STALLED FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR SERN TX INTO THE MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH CONVERGENCE REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW OVER SWRN
LA. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A SELY LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES AND AID IN LIFT WARM ADVECTION.

..JEWELL.. 05/01/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016/

...OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL LOW OVER NW MO/SW IA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO DE-AMPLIFY INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE MOVING EWD TO IL/INDIANA BY
THIS EVENING...AND OH/WRN PA OVERNIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE GENERALLY EWD ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS IL/INDIANA/OH...IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH.  THE WARM
SECTOR S OF THE BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF 60-64 F...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY
INTO THE 75-80 F RANGE IN SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD BREAKS.  THE NET RESULT
WILL BE MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J PER KG/ AND
LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ALONG AND S OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE OH RIVER...PRIMARILY IN
RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
AND POSSIBLY STORM SPLITS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS EWD TOWARD WV
THIS AFTERNOON.  FARTHER N...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD ALSO
FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
FROM SE IL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE EVENING.

...SE STATES THIS AFTERNOON...
ONGOING CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER LA/MS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD
TOWARD THE NRN GULF SHELF WATERS...AND SPREAD EWD INTO AL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.  OTHER STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS
NRN SC THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A LOOSE CLUSTER OF STORMS INTERACTS WITH
A SURFACE FRONT.

...S TX/RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD INTO S TX...BUT A STRONG
CAP IS PRESENT PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION.  IT IS MORE PROBABLE
THAT STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS W-SW OF DRT...BUT IF AND
HOW FAR THESE STORMS MAKE IT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE IS NOT CLEAR.
WILL LEAVE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO COVER THE CONDITIONAL RISK
FOR BOTH SCENARIOS.

$$





000
ACUS11 KWNS 011812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011811
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-011915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0521
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SW KY...WRN TN...NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011811Z - 011915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WRN OH/TN VALLEYS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN INCREASINGLY
AGITATED CU ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO FAR SW KY...WRN
TN...AND NW MS. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST LITTLE...IF ANY...CINH REMAINS
AMIDST MLCAPE NEAR 15OO J PER KG. LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
REGION IS WEAK BUT 12Z BNA SOUNDING SAMPLED 500-MB FLOW AROUND 50 KT
WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY
ESTIMATES EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-55 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   34948818 34398906 34289030 34609044 35368957 36338879
            36868818 37258761 37228666 36798655 36338686 34948818






000
ACUS11 KWNS 011739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011739
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-011945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0520
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...SRN OH THROUGH NRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 011739Z - 011945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS
FROM NRN OH SWWD THROUGH SRN IND TO A SFC LOW IN SRN IL. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN IL...AND ERN ARKANSAS.
WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO
1500 J/KG. BASED ON THE 17Z RAOB FROM WILMINGTON OH...VERY LITTLE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS. STORMS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL OH...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
INITIATE FARTHER SW AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND STORMS SPLITS WITH LARGE HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   38978757 39698619 40318413 40558239 39878176 39048267
            38088482 37678682 38088783 38978757






000
ACUS02 KWNS 011722
SWODY2
SPC AC 011721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWWD INTO
THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL OR WIND IS POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER VA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST.
ALOFT...A BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND EARLY...WITH SECONDARY DISTURBANCES EMERGING FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS...AIDING LIFT. THE PRESENCE OF SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE SERN
QUARTER OF THE CONUS WITH LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND 60S F FARTHER N INTO VA.

..CNTRL GULF COAST NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAKER LEADING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NEWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND OH/TN VALLEYS DURING THE DAY...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE OF STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE WEAK SFC
TROUGH. HEATING AND A MOIST AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED
AREAS OF STORMS. WIND PROFILES WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
ACROSS NRN AL...GA...AND TN AS 850 WINDS STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER WAVE. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AREAS OF ONGOING
RAIN AND STORMS WHICH MAY AFFECT AIR MASS QUALITY AND
DESTABILIZATION WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY. THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL
THEN TRANSLATE NEWD DURING THE EVENING TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC...WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SEVERE HAIL OR WIND IS
EXPECTED.

..JEWELL.. 05/01/2016

$$





000
ACUS02 KWNS 011722
SWODY2
SPC AC 011721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWWD INTO
THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL OR WIND IS POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER VA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST.
ALOFT...A BROAD BELT OF SWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND EARLY...WITH SECONDARY DISTURBANCES EMERGING FROM THE LOWER
MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHTTIME HOURS...AIDING LIFT. THE PRESENCE OF SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE SERN
QUARTER OF THE CONUS WITH LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND 60S F FARTHER N INTO VA.

..CNTRL GULF COAST NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAKER LEADING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NEWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND OH/TN VALLEYS DURING THE DAY...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE OF STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG THE WEAK SFC
TROUGH. HEATING AND A MOIST AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED
AREAS OF STORMS. WIND PROFILES WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
ACROSS NRN AL...GA...AND TN AS 850 WINDS STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER WAVE. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AREAS OF ONGOING
RAIN AND STORMS WHICH MAY AFFECT AIR MASS QUALITY AND
DESTABILIZATION WHICH LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY. THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL
THEN TRANSLATE NEWD DURING THE EVENING TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC...WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SEVERE HAIL OR WIND IS
EXPECTED.

..JEWELL.. 05/01/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 011619
SWODY1
SPC AC 011617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND
SRN APPALACHIANS TO THE GULF COAST AND S TX...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WIND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.  MORE ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST AND SOUTH TEXAS.

...OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL LOW OVER NW MO/SW IA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO DE-AMPLIFY INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE MOVING EWD TO IL/INDIANA BY
THIS EVENING...AND OH/WRN PA OVERNIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE GENERALLY EWD ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS IL/INDIANA/OH...IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH.  THE WARM
SECTOR S OF THE BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF 60-64 F...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM QUICKLY
INTO THE 75-80 F RANGE IN SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD BREAKS.  THE NET RESULT
WILL BE MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J PER KG/ AND
LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ALONG AND S OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE OH RIVER...PRIMARILY IN
RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
AND POSSIBLY STORM SPLITS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS EWD TOWARD WV
THIS AFTERNOON.  FARTHER N...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD ALSO
FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS
FROM SE IL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE EVENING.

...SE STATES THIS AFTERNOON...
ONGOING CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER LA/MS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD
TOWARD THE NRN GULF SHELF WATERS...AND SPREAD EWD INTO AL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.  OTHER STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS
NRN SC THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A LOOSE CLUSTER OF STORMS INTERACTS WITH
A SURFACE FRONT.

...S TX/RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD INTO S TX...BUT A STRONG
CAP IS PRESENT PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION.  IT IS MORE PROBABLE
THAT STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS W-SW OF DRT...BUT IF AND
HOW FAR THESE STORMS MAKE IT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE IS NOT CLEAR.
WILL LEAVE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO COVER THE CONDITIONAL RISK
FOR BOTH SCENARIOS.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 05/01/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 011246
SWODY1
SPC AC 011244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AND SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN APPALACHIANS
AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
TX EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND ALSO FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BLOCKING-TYPE FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WRN U.S. THIS
PERIOD...AS RIDGING EXPANDS OVER ERN CANADA AND INTO THE PAC NW/NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ERN CANADA WSWWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES/GREAT
BASIN.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW INVOF STL ATTM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY REGION...ROUGHLY ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING EWD
FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SWWD INTO S TX WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE
MS/TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE LINGERING ACROSS THE S TX
VICINITY THROUGH 02/12Z.

...OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
AS ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND E OF THE APPALACHIANS
SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD TODAY...SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST.  BY MID AFTERNOON...AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST NEAR/AHEAD OF THE EWD-MOVING SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING E OF THE LOW ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
REGION.  WITH A BELT OF 50+ KT WSWLYS AT MID LEVELS ATOP THIS
REGION...A FEW STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  WITH DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL POSSIBLY LIMITING BOTH THE NUMBER AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THE AREA ATTM...THOUGH LATER UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED IF
MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR.

WHILE LESS CERTAIN DUE TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION POSSIBLY
LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING...EVENTUAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
ALONG AND E OF CENTRAL AND SERN APPALACHIANS MAY SUPPORT
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION.  WHILE ON THE
SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF
MARGINAL HAIL/STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

...RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS -- WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER
CORES -- IS ONGOING ACROSS SERN TX/LA ATTM...WHILE A BAND OF WEAKER
CELLS EXTEND NEWD ACROSS MS.  WITH SOME DOWNSTREAM HEATING OF THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS SOME DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON...EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS
LIKELY.  WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL/WEAK SUPERCELL
ORGANIZATION...A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

FARTHER W INTO TX...ELY POST-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW UPSLOPING INTO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO MAY SUPPORT AFTERNOON STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL
HEATING.  WITH AMPLE MID-LEVEL WSWLYS ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL ELY
FLOW...STORMS MAY MOVE EWD OFF THE TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF TX.  WHILE THIS SCENARIO REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN ATTM...CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
THREAT IS APPARENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN
ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA ATTM...WITH ANY
POSSIBLE UPGRADE LEFT FOR CONSIDERATION IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..GOSS/GLEASON.. 05/01/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 011246
SWODY1
SPC AC 011244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AND SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN APPALACHIANS
AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
TX EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND ALSO FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BLOCKING-TYPE FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WRN U.S. THIS
PERIOD...AS RIDGING EXPANDS OVER ERN CANADA AND INTO THE PAC NW/NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ERN CANADA WSWWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES/GREAT
BASIN.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW INVOF STL ATTM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
OH VALLEY REGION...ROUGHLY ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING EWD
FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SWWD INTO S TX WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE
MS/TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE LINGERING ACROSS THE S TX
VICINITY THROUGH 02/12Z.

...OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
AS ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND E OF THE APPALACHIANS
SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD TODAY...SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST.  BY MID AFTERNOON...AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST NEAR/AHEAD OF THE EWD-MOVING SURFACE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING E OF THE LOW ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
REGION.  WITH A BELT OF 50+ KT WSWLYS AT MID LEVELS ATOP THIS
REGION...A FEW STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  WITH DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL POSSIBLY LIMITING BOTH THE NUMBER AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THE AREA ATTM...THOUGH LATER UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED IF
MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR.

WHILE LESS CERTAIN DUE TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION POSSIBLY
LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING...EVENTUAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
ALONG AND E OF CENTRAL AND SERN APPALACHIANS MAY SUPPORT
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION.  WHILE ON THE
SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF
MARGINAL HAIL/STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

...RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS -- WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER
CORES -- IS ONGOING ACROSS SERN TX/LA ATTM...WHILE A BAND OF WEAKER
CELLS EXTEND NEWD ACROSS MS.  WITH SOME DOWNSTREAM HEATING OF THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS SOME DESTABILIZATION INTO THE
AFTERNOON...EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS
LIKELY.  WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL/WEAK SUPERCELL
ORGANIZATION...A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

FARTHER W INTO TX...ELY POST-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW UPSLOPING INTO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO MAY SUPPORT AFTERNOON STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL
HEATING.  WITH AMPLE MID-LEVEL WSWLYS ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL ELY
FLOW...STORMS MAY MOVE EWD OFF THE TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF TX.  WHILE THIS SCENARIO REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN ATTM...CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
THREAT IS APPARENT INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN
ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA ATTM...WITH ANY
POSSIBLE UPGRADE LEFT FOR CONSIDERATION IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..GOSS/GLEASON.. 05/01/2016

$$





000
ACUS11 KWNS 010822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010822
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-011015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0519
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LA...FAR SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST MS

CONCERNING...01Z OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 010822Z - 011015Z

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE CURRENT OUTLOOK PERIOD ENDING AT
12Z. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...WITHIN A WEAK WARM CONVEYOR...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY
INCREASED FROM NEAR GALVESTON BAY INTO SOUTHWEST LA. 0-1 KM SHEAR IS
WEAK /ONLY AROUND 10 KT/ AND FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM IS MODEST
PER RECENT LAKE CHARLES VWP DATA. HOWEVER...VEERING OF THE WIND
PROFILE WITH HEIGHT FROM THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS AMID STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR HAIL PRODUCTION GIVEN A
MODERATELY BUOYANT AIR MASS PER MODIFIED 00Z LAKE CHARLES RAOB AND
RAP SOUNDINGS. HRRR/WRF-NSSL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND GRADUALLY SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEAST WITH TIME. GREATEST SEVERE HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXIST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE AN INCREASING CLUSTER
MODE/DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE LIKELY LIMITS HAIL MAGNITUDE LATER
THIS MORNING.

..GRAMS/GOSS.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   29749450 30909388 31279287 31479168 31369073 30899013
            30298995 29879013 29569028 29249080 29559344 29519414
            29749450






000
ACUS03 KWNS 010713
SWODY3
SPC AC 010712

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US TUESDAY.  GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

...SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND CONSISTENT MODEL WITH
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AS IT DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
SERN U.S. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DAY3.  MODEST 500MB FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SERN U.S. SUCH THAT ANY STORMS
THAT FORM AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO ORGANIZE INTO MULTI-CELL ROBUST CONVECTION.  WHILE FORECAST LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STEEP...PW VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
1.5 IN AND SBCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG...SUGGEST HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.  SCT THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE COLD FRONT BUT
MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING SHOULD AID BUOYANCY.

..DARROW.. 05/01/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 010548
SWODY1
SPC AC 010546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AS WELL AS ACROSS
SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGHING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH
OF THE U.S...WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOWS...ONE
NOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ANOTHER OVER ARIZONA.
HOWEVER...WITHIN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...NOW EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT UPPER HIGH
WILL EVOLVE AND BECOME CENTERED EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES DURING
THIS PERIOD.  BY 12Z MONDAY...THIS LATTER FEATURE MAY ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF WESTERN CANADA...AND THE U.S. PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.

LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING MAY LINGER WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
SPLIT WESTERLIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BUT THE
INCREASINGLY SHEARED/DEFORMED REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD.
AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...THE
LEAD IMPULSE IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE
TRAILING IMPULSE MAY CROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL PLAINS.


IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD IMPULSE...THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL COOLING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z TODAY.  IT APPEARS THAT THIS MAY
PROGRESS ACROSS THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION AND MUCH OF THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY...WHILE ADVANCING MORE SLOWLY THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  AHEAD OF THE
IMPULSE...A WEAK LOW MAY TRACK ALONG THE STALLED PORTION OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
AT THE SAME TIME...A BAROCLINIC ZONE ...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF COLD AIR DAMMING TO THE LEE OF APPALACHIANS...IS EXPECTED TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.

TO THE SOUTH OF THESE FRONTS...IT GENERALLY APPEARS THAT MODERATE TO
STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /2000+ J PER KG/ WILL BECOME CONFINED
TO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GRANDE VALLEY INTO UPPER TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS.  BUT...WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION /CAPE OF 1000+ J PER KG/ ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

...OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
DETAILS OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED DESTABILIZATION...COINCIDING WITH
STRENGTHENING OF MID/UPPER WIND FIELDS WITH THE APPROACHING
IMPULSE...THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL PROBABLY BE STRONG...AND POTENTIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY
MODEST IN SIZE.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO TEND TO MINIMIZE THE TORNADIC
POTENTIAL.  BUT SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS...WHICH MAY NOT BECOME MUCH MORE
THAN WIDELY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL GULF COAST...
DETAILS OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ARE UNCERTAIN.  MUCH OF
THE REGION MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR JET.  BUT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
GENERALLY STRONG...BENEATH AND BETWEEN THE DIFLUENT POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS.  GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...BOTH AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING FRONT...AND TO THE COOL SIDE/ABOVE THE
FRONT...THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.

GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT ONE AREA OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EARLY
NEAR UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS.  OTHERWISE... STORM
INITIATION IS MOST CERTAIN NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AS THE UPPER IMPULSE
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ORGANIZING CLUSTER OF STORMS
COULD CROSS THE RIVER...THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS BY 12Z MONDAY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS...WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL...MAY
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
HILL COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS.

..KERR/PICCA.. 05/01/2016

$$





000
ACUS02 KWNS 010535
SWODY2
SPC AC 010533

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TN TO VA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES...NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.  A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO VIRGINIA.

...TN VALLEY TO MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS FORECAST SYNOPTIC FRONTAL POSITION DRAPED
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WSWWD ACROSS WV/KY/MIDDLE TN AT 18Z...FARTHER
NORTH THAN FRIDAY MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED.  FOR THIS REASON HAVE
OPTED TO ADJUST CAT1 SEVERE PROBS NWD TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED
FRONTAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP WITHIN STRONGER SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT
ACROSS PA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH BRIEF SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IN ITS
WAKE OVER THE DELMARVA.  AS A RESULT...STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS VA/WV.  WHILE BUOYANCY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE THAT STRONG...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ACROSS THIS
REGION AHEAD OF EXPECTED CONVECTION THAT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THIS
AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD
ALONG AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WV INTO WRN VA WHERE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS.
 ESEWD STORM MOTIONS SHOULD ALLOW TSTMS TO SPREAD EAST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS.  GUSTY WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...SOUTH TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...

SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH SOUTH TX BY SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING.  WHILE POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACROSS THIS
REGION IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST TSTMS WILL BE OFFSHORE OVER THE NWRN
GULF BASIN.

..DARROW.. 05/01/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 010056
SWODY1
SPC AC 010054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS  PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
OZARK PLATEAU AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS/OZARK PLATEAU INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
STRONGEST LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN FOCUSED
IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH...TRAILING SOUTHWARD FROM A
SURFACE LOW NEAR QUINCY IL INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU.  SEASONABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH MODEST STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPEARS TO HAVE SUPPORTED MODERATELY LARGE MIXED LAYER CAPE IN
EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ALONG THIS AXIS.  THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG
AND NORTH OF A CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET /50+ KT AT 500 MB/ NOSING EAST
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.

ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS PROBABLY PEAKED...AS IT APPEARS CONVECTION HAS IMPACTED
MUCH OF THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY...AND BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING ELSEWHERE COMMENCES.

ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI...MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY.
 HOWEVER...LINGERING MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY MAY
MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT A BIT
LONGER THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH.  THIS COULD BE SUPPORTED BY RESIDUAL
LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FOR A PERIOD...AFTER INHIBITION BEGINS
TO INCREASE FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING.

..KERR.. 05/01/2016

$$





000
ACUS11 KWNS 010036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010036
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-010130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0518
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL IL INTO E-CNTRL AND SERN MO AND N-CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 132...

VALID 010036Z - 010130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 132
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING.  AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED BUT PERHAPS EXTENSIONS-IN-TIME
MAY BE NEEDED IN LOCALIZED AREAS FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCTD STORMS NEAR A COLD FRONT FROM
NERN MO/W-CNTRL IL SWWD INTO N-CNTRL AR.  STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
LOCATED OVER THE AREA /8 DEG PER KM AT SGF/ PER 00Z RAOB DATA AND
ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS
WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS
FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  AFTER 02Z /SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 132
EXPIRATION TIME/...DIURNAL COOLING EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND
02Z WILL ACT TO LESSEN BUOYANCY AND RESULT IN A GRADUAL DIMINISHING
OF STORM INTENSITY THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT NEAR OR AFTER 02Z AND A
LOCAL EXTENSION-IN-TIME AND/OR EXTENSION-IN-AREA WILL BEST HANDLE
THIS SCENARIO.

..SMITH.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   35169271 35919297 38929060 39779146 40029081 39178976
            38658978 35129219 35169271






000
ACUS11 KWNS 302151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302151
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-302245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0517
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AL / SRN MIDDLE AND SERN TN / NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 302151Z - 302245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLD SEVERE RISK MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH STORMS EXHIBITING TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY OVER NRN AL NEWD INTO SERN TN SHOWS
SEVERAL WEAK SUPERCELLS WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO MODERATE
BUOYANCY /750-1250 J PER KG MLCAPE/.  ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE SSW...SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT IS A
COMPENSATING FACTOR AND LEADING TO A WIND PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SHORTER-LIVED AND GENERALLY WEAK
UPDRAFT ROTATION.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NE
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION AHEAD OF A DRYSLOT/MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
LOBE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID SOUTH THIS EVENING.
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND PERHAPS A WEAK
SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

..SMITH/HART.. 04/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34798721 35218678 35698472 35148441 34628485 34488677
            34798721






000
ACUS11 KWNS 302151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302151
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-302245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0517
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AL / SRN MIDDLE AND SERN TN / NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 302151Z - 302245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLD SEVERE RISK MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH STORMS EXHIBITING TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY OVER NRN AL NEWD INTO SERN TN SHOWS
SEVERAL WEAK SUPERCELLS WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO MODERATE
BUOYANCY /750-1250 J PER KG MLCAPE/.  ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE SSW...SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT IS A
COMPENSATING FACTOR AND LEADING TO A WIND PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SHORTER-LIVED AND GENERALLY WEAK
UPDRAFT ROTATION.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NE
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION AHEAD OF A DRYSLOT/MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
LOBE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID SOUTH THIS EVENING.
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...AND PERHAPS A WEAK
SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

..SMITH/HART.. 04/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34798721 35218678 35698472 35148441 34628485 34488677
            34798721






000
ACUS11 KWNS 302100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302100
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-302300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0516
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH
ALABAMA...WEST FLORIDA PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 131...

VALID 302100Z - 302300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THIS EVENING. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AFTER WHICH THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH EAST OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH NUMBER 131.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONALLY...VAD WIND PROFILES AT LIX AND MOB
EXHIBIT SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH HEIGHT TO SUPPORT
BRIEF/TRANSIENT/SHALLOW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE COMBINATION OF
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND LOW-LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST AND A BRIEF TORNADO
OR TWO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS A RESULT...WFO SLIDELL HAS
LOCALLY EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 131 IN BOTH SPACE
AND TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.

LATER THIS EVENING...AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EAST...SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING
IN A GENERAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
INTENSITY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
NEED OF A SMALL DOWNSTREAM WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA
AND WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

..MARSH/THOMPSON.. 04/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29449131 31339055 31308848 31158727 30508666 29958673
            28738811 28569027 28699137 29449131






000
ACUS11 KWNS 302003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302002
MOZ000-ARZ000-302200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0515
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND NCNTRL ARKANSAS THROUGH SCNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302002Z - 302200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NWRN/NCNTRL ARKANSAS
THROUGH SCNTRL MO BY EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE
AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A ZONE OF CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM NWRN ARKANSAS
THROUGH CNTRL MO. WV IMAGERY INDICATES A ZONE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL
DRYING WITH IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIGHT
STILL BE SLIGHTLY CAPPED TO SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...AN
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK IN MOST OF
THIS REGION...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH BE MULTICELL IN
CHARACTER AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL AND
ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES TOWARD
MID-EVENING.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   35179374 35999345 36919299 37919229 38589169 38429103
            37679075 36409187 35149272 34799365 35179374






000
ACUS01 KWNS 301950
SWODY1
SPC AC 301949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 302000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM AR INTO SERN MO AND SRN
IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN LA...MS...WRN AL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS
SWD TO THE GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND FROM PARTS OF ARKANSAS INTO MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONLY A MINOR EXTENSION TO
THE MARGINAL RISK ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER HAS BEEN MADE AS CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE ALONG THE FRONT WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
OR WIND POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL.. 04/30/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PRIMARY INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING NEWD OVER MO THIS
MORNING...AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE KS/NEB
BORDER.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR KANSAS CITY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EWD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS MO AND SEWD ACROSS TX.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/CONVECTION SINCE YESTERDAY HAVE COMPLICATED THE
SITUATION TODAY...LEAVING SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY FROM THE TN VALLEY
NWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  WILL MAINTAIN THE MRGL SEVERE RISK
AND LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER A BROAD AREA...BUT WILL ATTEMPT TO
FOCUS THE SLGT RISK AREAS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN DESTABILIZATION AND
THE OCCURRENCE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS IS GREATER.

...LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...
ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN CENTRAL/S CENTRAL LA ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST WHILE SPREADING EWD/NEWD TOWARD SE LA AND CENTRAL/SRN MS.
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE BUOYANCY IN
ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION...AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...IT WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CONVECTION SHOULD
REACH AL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A SOMEWHAT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
AND WEAKER BUOYANCY WITH EWD EXTENT SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING
OF THE STORMS/SEVERE THREAT BY THIS EVENING.

...AR/MO/SRN IL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION FROM
THE MS RIVER EWD...AND N OF THE PRIMARY STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS LA/MS.
HOWEVER...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SOME CLEARING FROM THE W...AND
LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AOA 60 F AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.  LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ACROSS
THIS AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING TO THE
NE...AND LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIKEWISE WEAKEN.  THUS...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 301950
SWODY1
SPC AC 301949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 302000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM AR INTO SERN MO AND SRN
IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN LA...MS...WRN AL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS
SWD TO THE GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND FROM PARTS OF ARKANSAS INTO MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONLY A MINOR EXTENSION TO
THE MARGINAL RISK ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER HAS BEEN MADE AS CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE ALONG THE FRONT WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
OR WIND POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL.. 04/30/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PRIMARY INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING NEWD OVER MO THIS
MORNING...AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE KS/NEB
BORDER.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR KANSAS CITY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EWD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS MO AND SEWD ACROSS TX.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/CONVECTION SINCE YESTERDAY HAVE COMPLICATED THE
SITUATION TODAY...LEAVING SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY FROM THE TN VALLEY
NWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  WILL MAINTAIN THE MRGL SEVERE RISK
AND LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER A BROAD AREA...BUT WILL ATTEMPT TO
FOCUS THE SLGT RISK AREAS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN DESTABILIZATION AND
THE OCCURRENCE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS IS GREATER.

...LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...
ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN CENTRAL/S CENTRAL LA ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST WHILE SPREADING EWD/NEWD TOWARD SE LA AND CENTRAL/SRN MS.
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE BUOYANCY IN
ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION...AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...IT WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CONVECTION SHOULD
REACH AL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A SOMEWHAT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
AND WEAKER BUOYANCY WITH EWD EXTENT SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING
OF THE STORMS/SEVERE THREAT BY THIS EVENING.

...AR/MO/SRN IL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION FROM
THE MS RIVER EWD...AND N OF THE PRIMARY STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS LA/MS.
HOWEVER...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SOME CLEARING FROM THE W...AND
LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AOA 60 F AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.  LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ACROSS
THIS AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING TO THE
NE...AND LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIKEWISE WEAKEN.  THUS...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

$$





000
ACUS11 KWNS 301836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301835
MSZ000-LAZ000-301930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0514
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 131...

VALID 301835Z - 301930Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 131
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS AND MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE COMBINATION OF CAPE AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM CORES.

DESPITE THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS...RECENT VAD WIND PROFILES
FROM KLIX INDICATE ENOUGH VEERING WITH HEIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELD TO SUPPORT BRIEF/TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN
THE OVERALL THUNDERSTORM LINE. THESE FEATURES MAY ACT TO ENHANCE THE
LOCAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT...AND/OR RESULT IN A BRIEF
TORNADO.

..MARSH.. 04/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   28598941 28719098 28759115 29309287 29919245 30979180
            31219158 31329147 31359130 31359055 30038886 30008883
            29848882 29158901 28638919 28608931 28598941 28598941






000
ACUS02 KWNS 301714
SWODY2
SPC AC 301713

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX NEWD ACROSS THE
OH RIVER...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF
TEXAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BELT OF STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE NERN STATES WITH TWO LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES. ONE WILL MOVE
FROM IL/IN EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS THE AREA. TO THE SW...AN INVERTED
SFC TROUGH WILL EXIST FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SERN TX
AND LA...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
MEANWHILE...A POLAR AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SWD OVER WRN
TX...WITH THE LEADING FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT FAR SERN TX BY MON
MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

...INDIANA...OHIO...KENTUCKY...
WEAK SLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE OH RIVER AND NEAR A DEVELOPING SFC LOW. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.
PRIMARILY WLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE
FOR SPLITTING CELLS WITH A THREAT OF HAIL. THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LACK OF MUCH WARM ADVECTION SUGGESTS ISOLATED
SEVERE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY OCCUR IF
STORM COVERAGE EXPECTATIONS INCREASE.

...CNTRL INTO SERN TX...
NEUTRAL TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL EXIST WITH MODESTLY STRONG MID
TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. WEAK CONVERGENCE
WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF ERN TX INTO WRN LA AS SELY SFC WINDS BRING
TROPICAL MOISTURE FARTHER INLAND. HEATING WILL LEAD TO STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 2000 TO PERHAPS 3000 J/KG. SOME MODELS
INCLUDING THE ECMWF PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL TO ERN TX DURING THE EVENING...APPROACHING THE
TX COAST BY MON MORNING. GIVEN RATHER WEAK FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR
CAPPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL DEFER ANY POTENTIAL SLIGHT RISK TO
LATER OUTLOOKS. LONG STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONDITIONALLY FAVOR LARGE DAMAGING
HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 04/30/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 301629
SWODY1
SPC AC 301628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 301630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM
PARTS OF AR/SE MO INTO SW IL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR A BROAD AREA FROM THE LOWER
OH AND MID MS VALLEYS SWD TO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND FROM PARTS OF ARKANSAS INTO MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PRIMARY INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING NEWD OVER MO THIS
MORNING...AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE KS/NEB
BORDER.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR KANSAS CITY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EWD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS MO AND SEWD ACROSS TX.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/CONVECTION SINCE YESTERDAY HAVE COMPLICATED THE
SITUATION TODAY...LEAVING SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY FROM THE TN VALLEY
NWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  WILL MAINTAIN THE MRGL SEVERE RISK
AND LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER A BROAD AREA...BUT WILL ATTEMPT TO
FOCUS THE SLGT RISK AREAS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN DESTABILIZATION AND
THE OCCURRENCE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS IS GREATER.

...LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...
ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN CENTRAL/S CENTRAL LA ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST WHILE SPREADING EWD/NEWD TOWARD SE LA AND CENTRAL/SRN MS.
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE BUOYANCY IN
ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION...AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...IT WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CONVECTION SHOULD
REACH AL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A SOMEWHAT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
AND WEAKER BUOYANCY WITH EWD EXTENT SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING
OF THE STORMS/SEVERE THREAT BY THIS EVENING.

...AR/MO/SRN IL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION FROM
THE MS RIVER EWD...AND N OF THE PRIMARY STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS LA/MS.
HOWEVER...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SOME CLEARING FROM THE W...AND
LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AOA 60 F AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.  LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ACROSS
THIS AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING TO THE
NE...AND LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIKEWISE WEAKEN.  THUS...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..THOMPSON/MARSH.. 04/30/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 301629
SWODY1
SPC AC 301628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 301630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM
PARTS OF AR/SE MO INTO SW IL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR A BROAD AREA FROM THE LOWER
OH AND MID MS VALLEYS SWD TO THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND FROM PARTS OF ARKANSAS INTO MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PRIMARY INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING NEWD OVER MO THIS
MORNING...AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE KS/NEB
BORDER.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR KANSAS CITY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EWD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY EWD ACROSS MO AND SEWD ACROSS TX.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/CONVECTION SINCE YESTERDAY HAVE COMPLICATED THE
SITUATION TODAY...LEAVING SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY FROM THE TN VALLEY
NWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  WILL MAINTAIN THE MRGL SEVERE RISK
AND LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER A BROAD AREA...BUT WILL ATTEMPT TO
FOCUS THE SLGT RISK AREAS WHERE CONFIDENCE IN DESTABILIZATION AND
THE OCCURRENCE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS IS GREATER.

...LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY...
ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN CENTRAL/S CENTRAL LA ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST WHILE SPREADING EWD/NEWD TOWARD SE LA AND CENTRAL/SRN MS.
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE BUOYANCY IN
ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION...AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...IT WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CONVECTION SHOULD
REACH AL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A SOMEWHAT DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
AND WEAKER BUOYANCY WITH EWD EXTENT SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING
OF THE STORMS/SEVERE THREAT BY THIS EVENING.

...AR/MO/SRN IL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION FROM
THE MS RIVER EWD...AND N OF THE PRIMARY STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS LA/MS.
HOWEVER...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SOME CLEARING FROM THE W...AND
LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS AOA 60 F AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.  LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ACROSS
THIS AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING TO THE
NE...AND LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL LIKEWISE WEAKEN.  THUS...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..THOMPSON/MARSH.. 04/30/2016

$$





000
ACUS11 KWNS 301522
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301522
LAZ000-TXZ000-301615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0513
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129...130...

VALID 301522Z - 301615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
129...130...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER SCNTRL AND SERN LA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 129 AND 130 ARE
SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 16Z. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129 COULD BE
LOCALLY EXTENDED IF NECESSARY FOR A PORTION OF SCNTRL LA. ANOTHER WW
DOWNSTREAM OVER SERN LA MIGHT BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING OR
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS PERSISTS
ACROSS SCNTRL LA AND IS MOVING ONLY SLOWLY EWD AT 20 KT. A FEW
BOWING SEGMENTS AND MESO-VORTICES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED WITHIN THE
LINE. ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR OVER SERN LA TODAY. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR
LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND 0-1 KM HODOGRAPH SIZE TO SLOWLY DECREASE DURING
THE DAY...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29499126 29629188 29609306 29509364 29399429 29789397
            30479312 30909137 30809064 30139014 29259068 29499126






000
ACUS01 KWNS 301302
SWODY1
SPC AC 301300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 301300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS
SWD TO THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...OZARKS AND
THE OHIO VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING -- INCLUDING TWO DISTINCT CYCLONES -- WILL
RESIDE OVER THE WRN AND CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE RIDGING
PREVAILS OVER THE ERN STATES.  THE FIRST LOW -- CENTERED OVER NWRN
KS ATTM -- IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN KS TOWARD SERN
NEB...WHILE THE SECOND -- CROSSING THE SRN NV/CA BORDER AREA --
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER CO VALLEY INTO AZ.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW NOW RESIDING OVER NERN KS IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME...AS IT CROSSES MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT ALONG A W-E WARM FRONT.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN KS SWD ACROSS ERN OK
INTO ERN PORTIONS OF TX WILL MOVE EWD INTO MO/AR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED WITH TIME AS THE
PARENT SURFACE LOW WEAKENS.

...LOWER MO/MID MS/OH VALLEYS SWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LIMITED/ONGOING
SEVERE RISK ACROSS PARTS OF SERN TX AND ADJACENT SWRN LA.

THE AIRMASS E OF THIS ACTIVE/ONGOING WRN GULF COAST CONVECTION
SHOULD GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH LIMITED HEATING...RESULTING IN
CONTINUATION -- AND SOME EVENTUAL INTENSIFICATION/EXPANSION -- OF
SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA.  LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS SPREAD
ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF MO/AR IN THE WAKE OF
ONGOING STORMS ALONG THE MO VALLEY IS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN AMPLE MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING SHEAR SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

FARTHER E...MORE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER INTO THE LOWER
AND MID OH AND TN VALLEY AREAS WILL LIKELY HINDER DESTABILIZATION
POTENTIAL WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.  WHILE CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THESE AREAS...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
CONDITIONAL UPON AMPLE DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING.  ATTM...WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE AREA...BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS EVOLUTION OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE CLEAR.  SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

..GOSS/GLEASON.. 04/30/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 301302
SWODY1
SPC AC 301300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 301300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS
SWD TO THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...OZARKS AND
THE OHIO VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING -- INCLUDING TWO DISTINCT CYCLONES -- WILL
RESIDE OVER THE WRN AND CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WHILE RIDGING
PREVAILS OVER THE ERN STATES.  THE FIRST LOW -- CENTERED OVER NWRN
KS ATTM -- IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN KS TOWARD SERN
NEB...WHILE THE SECOND -- CROSSING THE SRN NV/CA BORDER AREA --
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER CO VALLEY INTO AZ.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW NOW RESIDING OVER NERN KS IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN GRADUALLY WITH TIME...AS IT CROSSES MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT ALONG A W-E WARM FRONT.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN KS SWD ACROSS ERN OK
INTO ERN PORTIONS OF TX WILL MOVE EWD INTO MO/AR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED WITH TIME AS THE
PARENT SURFACE LOW WEAKENS.

...LOWER MO/MID MS/OH VALLEYS SWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS MORNING...WITH LIMITED/ONGOING
SEVERE RISK ACROSS PARTS OF SERN TX AND ADJACENT SWRN LA.

THE AIRMASS E OF THIS ACTIVE/ONGOING WRN GULF COAST CONVECTION
SHOULD GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH LIMITED HEATING...RESULTING IN
CONTINUATION -- AND SOME EVENTUAL INTENSIFICATION/EXPANSION -- OF
SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA.  LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS SPREAD
ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF MO/AR IN THE WAKE OF
ONGOING STORMS ALONG THE MO VALLEY IS EXPECTED...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN AMPLE MID-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING SHEAR SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

FARTHER E...MORE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER INTO THE LOWER
AND MID OH AND TN VALLEY AREAS WILL LIKELY HINDER DESTABILIZATION
POTENTIAL WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.  WHILE CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THESE AREAS...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
CONDITIONAL UPON AMPLE DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING.  ATTM...WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE AREA...BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS EVOLUTION OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION
BECOMES MORE CLEAR.  SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

..GOSS/GLEASON.. 04/30/2016

$$





000
ACUS11 KWNS 301238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301238
LAZ000-TXZ000-301345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0512
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...SOUTHWEST LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129...130...

VALID 301238Z - 301345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
129...130...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PRIMARY RISKS SHOULD REMAIN AS ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO INTO LATE MORNING AS A PAIR OF MCS/S LIKELY
MERGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

DISCUSSION...FORWARD MOTION OF A LEAD MCS THAT HAS CROSSED THE
SABINE RIVER INTO SOUTHWEST LA WAS ONLY ABOUT 20 KT...WHILE AN
UPSTREAM MCS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN HOUSTON METRO WAS MOVING EAST
AROUND 40 KT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MERGING OF THESE MCS/S IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE. 12Z LCH SAMPLED ONLY
SLIGHTLY WEAKENED MLCIN...AROUND 100 J/KG...RELATIVE TO 00Z. AS
SUCH...THIS LEAD CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE MODEST FORWARD
SPEED UNTIL UPSTREAM COLD POOL AMALGAMATION OCCURS. BEYOND THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN WPC MPD 154...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS.

..GRAMS.. 04/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   30399519 30519449 30539384 30759349 30859262 30709225
            30189207 29729230 29599256 29629374 29359475 29209536
            29269615 29589604 30399519






000
ACUS11 KWNS 301238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301238
LAZ000-TXZ000-301345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0512
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...SOUTHWEST LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 129...130...

VALID 301238Z - 301345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
129...130...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PRIMARY RISKS SHOULD REMAIN AS ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO INTO LATE MORNING AS A PAIR OF MCS/S LIKELY
MERGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

DISCUSSION...FORWARD MOTION OF A LEAD MCS THAT HAS CROSSED THE
SABINE RIVER INTO SOUTHWEST LA WAS ONLY ABOUT 20 KT...WHILE AN
UPSTREAM MCS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN HOUSTON METRO WAS MOVING EAST
AROUND 40 KT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MERGING OF THESE MCS/S IN THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE. 12Z LCH SAMPLED ONLY
SLIGHTLY WEAKENED MLCIN...AROUND 100 J/KG...RELATIVE TO 00Z. AS
SUCH...THIS LEAD CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO HAVE MODEST FORWARD
SPEED UNTIL UPSTREAM COLD POOL AMALGAMATION OCCURS. BEYOND THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT HIGHLIGHTED IN WPC MPD 154...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS.

..GRAMS.. 04/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   30399519 30519449 30539384 30759349 30859262 30709225
            30189207 29729230 29599256 29629374 29359475 29209536
            29269615 29589604 30399519






000
ACUS11 KWNS 301012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301012
TXZ000-301145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0511
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301012Z - 301145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...EARLIER SUPERCELL THAT HAS EVOLVED INTO A SHORT-LINE
SEGMENT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF THE SOUTHEAST TX MCS.

DISCUSSION...CLASSIC SUPERCELL EVOLUTION INTO A SMALL-SCALE BOW ECHO
OCCURRED IN THE AUSTIN VICINITY WITH A MEASURED WIND GUSTS TO 52 KT
AT 0953Z. THIS BOW STRUCTURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A MESOLOW
EVIDENT IN 10Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MAY RIDE ALONG A REMNANT
WEST-EAST/ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT ARCS ACROSS COLLEGE STATION
INTO SOUTHEAST TX. WITH AMBIENT WARM SECTOR AIR MASS STILL
CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS...A SWATH OF SEVERE
WIND/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS.

..GRAMS/GOSS.. 04/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON   30369724 30579676 30679602 30689534 30579493 30279482
            29889471 29709482 29569607 29369697 29449740 30369724






000
ACUS11 KWNS 300824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300823
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-301000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0510
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX...WEST LA...FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 128...

VALID 300823Z - 301000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 128
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...REGENERATIVE STORMS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND
ACROSS EAST TX MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS /POTENTIALLY BEYOND 10Z WW EXPIRATION/. PERSISTENT
ROTATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER STRATIFORM REGION ALONG THE
WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN AR SHOULD FINALLY WEAKEN IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...MOST INTENSE STORMS IN TERMS OF REFLECTIVITY HAVE
BECOME CONFINED TO THE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND FROM SHELBY TO
MONTGOMERY/GRIMES COUNTY TX AS OF 0810Z. CONTINUED INFLUX OF RICH
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR SHOULD SUPPORT REGENERATIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...LIKELY EXTENDING SOUTH/EAST OF CURRENT WW.
ALIGNMENT OF THE STORM BAND PARALLELING THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR
SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ROBUST DAMAGING WIND THREAT. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE COLD POOL MIGHT EVENTUALLY RESULT IN PROPAGATION
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY.

FARTHER NORTH...A LONG-LIVED CIRCULATION WHICH EARLIER THIS MORNING
PRODUCED A PAIR OF TDS/S IN HARRISON COUNTY TX AND CADDO PARISH LA
HAS RECENTLY ENTERED UNION COUNTY AR. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN
RIDING ALONG A WEAK WARM FRONT WHICH HAS PROGRESSED NORTHWARD OVER
THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL REFLECTIVITY AND SFCOA MLCAPE TRENDS
SUGGEST THIS ROTATING CELL SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES.
FARTHER SOUTH...SHV VWP DATA HAS DEPICTED WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET HAS SHIFTED NORTH ACROSS AR...SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM MESOVORTICES ARE UNLIKELY.

..GRAMS.. 04/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   32699371 33339304 33599271 33549224 33309206 32329276
            30729315 30049357 29779431 29709500 29699548 29859559
            30179556 31119465 32699371






000
ACUS03 KWNS 300717
SWODY3
SPC AC 300716

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NC...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STATES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US.  WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
SUB SEVERE...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND
OVER NORTH CAROLINA.

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FAVORS A GRADUAL SWD AND EWD SHUNT TO HIGHER
PW/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ERN CONUS MONDAY.  BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD BUT
SUBSTANTIAL SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY FORM ALONG COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE FRONTAL
ASCENT WILL BE REQUIRED FOR INITIATION.  LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE EXPECTED STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT.

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ALONG WEAKLY
CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY...NEWD INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.  STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING ACROSS
THE SERN U.S. SHOULD AID BUOYANCY ALONG SRN FRINGES OF EJECTING
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  WHILE CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVE MINIMAL ACROSS
NC...SFC PARCELS SHOULD REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND
ISOLATED ROBUST STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

..DARROW.. 04/30/2016

$$





000
ACUS03 KWNS 300717
SWODY3
SPC AC 300716

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NC...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STATES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US.  WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
SUB SEVERE...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND
OVER NORTH CAROLINA.

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FAVORS A GRADUAL SWD AND EWD SHUNT TO HIGHER
PW/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ERN CONUS MONDAY.  BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD BUT
SUBSTANTIAL SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY FORM ALONG COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE FRONTAL
ASCENT WILL BE REQUIRED FOR INITIATION.  LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE EXPECTED STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT.

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ALONG WEAKLY
CONVERGENT FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY...NEWD INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION.  STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING ACROSS
THE SERN U.S. SHOULD AID BUOYANCY ALONG SRN FRINGES OF EJECTING
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  WHILE CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVE MINIMAL ACROSS
NC...SFC PARCELS SHOULD REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND
ISOLATED ROBUST STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

..DARROW.. 04/30/2016

$$





000
ACUS11 KWNS 300647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300646
TXZ000-300745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0509
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127...

VALID 300646Z - 300745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL MAY CONTINUE BEYOND 08Z
WW EXPIRATION. OVERALL RISK MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR A REPLACEMENT
WW...BUT A LOCAL TEMPORAL EXTENSION COULD BE PERFORMED.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CELLS HAVE PERSISTED ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF
LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW DRAPED ACROSS MAVERICK TO BEXAR COUNTY.
CONVECTION AT PRESENT MAY BE PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...BUT HAS THUS FAR
STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY TO POTENTIALLY BEING SEVERE. WHILE THIS
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND PERHAPS
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX ACROSS WEST TX...MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS MID-LEVEL LOBE WILL DECAY THROUGH 12Z. WITH
WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS
CONVECTION WILL SUSTAIN AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY. OVERALL SETUP MAY
ONLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 04/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...

LAT...LON   29400094 29939952 30289849 30319804 30119776 29769774
            29409833 29149913 28959983 28890051 29400094






000
ACUS01 KWNS 300602
SWODY1
SPC AC 300600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS/ARKLATEX/TX
COAST TO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...OZARKS AND
THE OHIO VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MO VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. A
COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
OZARKS/ARKLATEX AND UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
EXTENSIVE EARLY-DAY CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

...OZARKS/OH VALLEY TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
AN UPSTREAM UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MO VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD...WHILE A RELATED SURFACE LOW
WILL ALSO TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MO/IL/INDIANA. A RELATIVELY STRONG BELT OF DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL NONETHELESS OVERSPREAD AN INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT AND SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONT...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE WARM
FRONTAL/WARM SECTOR DETAILS ARE EFFECTIVELY COMPLICATED BY THE
LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED EARLY-DAY CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER. WITH AT LEAST MODEST WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ACROSS MO/NORTHEAST AR INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
STRONG/VEERING WIND PROFILES COULD SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELLS...WITH
SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

...TX COAST/ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY TO TN VALLEY...
AN EXTENSIVE CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
/INCLUDING A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND RISK/ WITH A DOMINANT LINEAR
MODE ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN AR/NORTHERN MS
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO LA AND THE TX COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD /12Z/ THIS MORNING. EVEN WHILE MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION MAY
EXPERIENCE A RELATIVE INTENSITY LULL THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING...COLD
POOL/OUTFLOW-FOCUSED REINTENSIFICATION IS VIABLE BY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF LA/MS AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF AL/TN. DAMAGING WINDS AND A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD
THROUGH A BELT OF CONFLUENT/MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER/TN VALLEYS.

FARTHER WEST...SUBSEQUENT LATER-DAY CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/TX
COAST. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND THE
TENDENCY FOR NEUTRAL/SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON THE
LIKELIHOOD AND COVERAGE OF VIGOROUS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
NEAR-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AR/NORTHERN LA AND THE TX COAST
PLAIN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY SEVERE RISK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
ISOLATED IN THIS LATER-DAY/HIGHLY CONDITIONAL SCENARIO. IF ADEQUATE
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AND NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STORMS MATERIALIZE
NEAR/JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING...SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/NORTH GA/WESTERN CAROLINAS...
AT LEAST A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF A RETREATING FRONT
WHERE CONVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND COULD OCCUR...AND A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE FRONT.

..GUYER/PICCA.. 04/30/2016

$$





000
ACUS02 KWNS 300546
SWODY2
SPC AC 300545

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTH TX THROUGH THE TN/OH
VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STORMS...A FEW SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM
PORTIONS OF TEXAS...INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC.

...DISCUSSION...

CNTRL HIGH PLAINS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE MID-MS
VALLEY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.  500MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 60KT
IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS MO INTO SRN IL/INDIANA DURING THE
PEAK OF THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.  WHILE DEEP-LAYER
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DECIDEDLY WLY...SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
SUPPORTS ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS FOR CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES ALONG
SYNOPTIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.  GUSTY WINDS/HAIL ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK 12HR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRAIL FROM
THE BOOTHEEL OF MO...SWWD INTO SCNTRL TX.  BROAD SWLY FLOW AT MID
LEVELS WILL ENHANCE SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION BUT LARGE-SCALE FORCING
APPEARS TO BE NEUTRAL IN THE ABSENCE OF IDENTIFIABLE SHORT
WAVE-TROUGHS.  BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE APPEAR
TO BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.  OF SOME
CONCERN WILL BE TSTM ACTIVITY THAT EVOLVES ACROSS SWRN TX/NRN
MEXICO...AIDED IN PART BY TOPOGRAPHY.  SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR
SUPERCELLS AND STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER NRN
MEXICO COULD SPREAD INTO SCNTRL TX.  ADDITIONALLY...STRONGEST SFC
HEATING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN MEXICO WHICH SHOULD
HELP INITIATE STORMS.  HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..DARROW.. 04/30/2016

$$





000
ACUS11 KWNS 300442
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300442
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-300615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0508
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127...128...

VALID 300442Z - 300615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
127...128...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE 06-09Z TIME
FRAME...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE ARKLATEX /AND THE SHREVEPORT
AREA/.  AREAS EAST OF WATCH 128 WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH.

DISCUSSION...A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES...ROUGHLY CENTERED ACROSS OR JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
ARKLATEX REGION.  THIS APPEARS GENERALLY FOCUSED BENEATH STRONGEST
HIGH LEVEL DIVERGENCE...WITHIN A ZONE OF BROAD UPPER DIFLUENCE
EXTENDING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  A
BROAD BELT OF 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW ACROSS UPPER TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU IS ALSO ENHANCING
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION.  IT APPEARS THAT THIS
MAY PERSIST ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE 06-08Z TIME
FRAME.

SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF A BOUNDARY GENERATED
BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS CONTRIBUTING TO VERY LARGE AND CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ACROSS AND SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE
SHREVEPORT AREA.  THIS HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH THE
MORE DISCRETE STRONGER CORES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX DURING THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO.

AS THESE CELLS TRACK NORTHWARD ABOVE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
BORDER...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN MID 70S AND
DEW POINTS AROUND 70F...POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES...OR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE.  AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
SHIFTS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVERNIGHT...THIS PROBABLY WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE SHREVEPORT AREA THROUGH 07-09Z.

..KERR.. 04/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON   32049267 32249194 33459205 33749337 33719431 32869543
            32049472 31989377 32049267






000
ACUS11 KWNS 300157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300156
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-300330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0856 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX...NORTHERN LA...SOUTHERN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 124...125...

VALID 300156Z - 300330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 124...125...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...A FEW LARGE HAIL
REPORTS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AFTER THE 03Z
EXPIRATION OF WATCHES 124/125. AS SUCH...A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
COORDINATED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL CLUSTERS AND SMALL LINEAR SEGMENTS /WITH
OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ CONTINUE ACROSS WATCHES
124/125 THIS EVENING...AIDED BY CONTINUED WARM-AIR ADVECTION WITHIN
MOIST/CONFLUENT FLOW. WHILE UPSCALE GROWTH AND CELL MERGERS WILL
DECREASE THE TORNADO THREAT GRADUALLY...MOIST LOW LEVELS AND
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SRH WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO
OR TWO. THE MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AS CELL MERGERS AND SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS LOCALLY ENHANCE
THE STRONG-WIND POTENTIAL. AS CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTHERN FLANKS OF THE ONGOING LINE SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR.

..PICCA.. 04/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   30449682 31139691 31219688 32649634 32719630 33859557
            34019386 33879275 33749212 32629205 31599259 30739502
            30449682






000
ACUS11 KWNS 300107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300107
TXZ000-300230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0807 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 124...

VALID 300107Z - 300230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 124 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...ROUGHLY CENTERED
ON THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND DALLAS/FORT WORTH.  A
NEW SEVERE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF TORNADO WATCH 124
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THE BASE OF NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGHING NOW SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND A ZONAL SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...LIKELY IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX.  SUSTAINED DISCRETE STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING TO THE
WEST/AND NORTHWEST OF THE WACO/TEMPLE AREAS...AND STORMS ARE
INITIATING AS INHIBITION WEAKENS SOUTHWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.

IN THE PRESENCE OF LARGE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-3000+
J/KG...FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION AND
ORGANIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 02-04Z TIME...ACROSS AND
NORTH OF THE SAN ANTONIO AREA INTO AREAS SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED ACROSS THIS
REGION...ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET.  AN UPSCALE
GROWING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
IF THIS OCCURS...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL PROBABLY WILL INCREASE.  IN
THE MEANTIME...A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO THE
CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL.

..KERR.. 04/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29880040 30230016 30569955 31459885 32219785 31949633
            30369651 29189814 29260009 29880040






000
ACUS01 KWNS 300102
SWODY1
SPC AC 300100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ARKLATEX/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/ARKLATEX/OZARKS TO AL...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO PORTIONS OF
ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE TONIGHT. AN EASTWARD-MOVING
SQUALL LINE ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK WILL CONTINUE TO POSE
AN INCREASINGLY MARGINAL/ISOLATED SEVERE RISK THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE LONGEST DURATION SEVERE RISK SHOULD CONTINUE IN TWO
GENERAL CORRIDORS...INCLUDING IN VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL TX DRYLINE
AND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOIST/CONFLUENT AND
INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS IT INTERSECTS AN
OUTFLOW-REINFORCED FRONT. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ASIDE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH THE LATTER THREAT
ESPECIALLY THE CASE THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL TX INCLUDING THE
I-35 CORRIDOR.

...AL...
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS...LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGE MAY REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING ACROSS A SMALL PART OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN AL.

..GUYER.. 04/30/2016

$$





000
ACUS11 KWNS 292317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292316
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-300045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0505
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH ERN OK AND ADJACENT N CNTRL THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 124...126...

VALID 292316Z - 300045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 124...126...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A NEW WATCH WILL BE NEEDED NORTH OF
TORNADO WATCH 126...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.  OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR THE RED RIVER TO THE
NORTH OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...SOUTHWARD INTO AREAS NEAR
OR JUST NORTH OF THE METROPLEX.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING VIGOROUS LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...STILL APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING STRENGTH AS IT ADVANCES EAST NORTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.  ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN
SUPPORTED BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL WAVE...ENHANCED BY
FORCING WITH AN INITIAL IMPULSE PIVOTING  AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW NOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  HOWEVER
THIS FORCING MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN SHORTLY...AND WITH CONVECTION SOON
TO SPREAD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
STABILIZED BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH
LONGER IT WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH.

AT LEAST SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT ANOTHER IMPULSE
PIVOTING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MAY HELP FOCUS FORCING FOR
INCREASING/INTENSIFYING NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE VICINITY OF
THE RED RIVER INTO AREAS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH
METROPLEX THROUGH 00-02Z.  THIS APPEARS SUPPORTED BY TRENDS IN
LATEST VISIBLE AND RADAR IMAGERY.  JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY LARGE CAPE...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
SHEAR BENEATH 50-60+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW.  SOME FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35679697 36329583 36369454 35069451 33299557 32959639
            32899723 33629779 35679697






000
ACUS11 KWNS 292242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292242
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-300015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0504
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX AND NORTHWESTERN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 125...

VALID 292242Z - 300015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 125 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND STRONG
WINDS CONTINUES IN WATCH 125...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...WHILE THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES A LARGE AREA
OF STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF WATCH 125...SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY FREE OF PRECIPITATION. AS
SUCH...AMPLE BUOYANCY AND CONSIDERABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /AS WELL AS
LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH HEIGHT/ ARE PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. CONTINUED WARM-AIR ADVECTION HAS
ENCOURAGED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE HP SUPERCELL OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN VAN ZANDT COUNTY...EMBEDDED IN A LARGER CLUSTER.
POLARIMETRIC DATA...MRMS MESH...AND OVERALL REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE
SUGGEST GIANT HAIL /I.E. AT LEAST 2-INCH DIAMETER/ LIKELY OCCURRED
WITHIN THE LAST 30-45 MINUTES. WHILE THE CELL HAS SINCE WEAKENED
SOME...A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
WATCH 125 THIS EVENING...AS FURTHER MID/LOW-LEVEL ROTATION IS LIKELY
WITH MORE DISCRETE CELLS.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS LIKELY SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE...A NORTHWARD-PROGRESSING BOUNDARY
NEAR THE RED RIVER MAY CONTINUE TO FOCUS ROTATION IN ANY
SURFACE-BASED PARCELS...ENCOURAGING A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT HERE.

..PICCA.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON   31579474 31699533 32629566 34399504 34409363 34039169
            32719189 32349221 32029397 31579474






000
ACUS11 KWNS 292129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292129
ALZ000-MSZ000-292300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0503
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN MS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292129Z - 292300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR A
FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A LARGE HAIL REPORT OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE
LIMITED NATURE OF THE THREAT PRECLUDES WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...A QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUES EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR EASTERN MS AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL. THESE STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY FOLLOW AN
INSTABILITY AXIS TO THEIR EAST/SOUTHEAST...WHERE PRIOR SFC HEATING
HAS PROMOTED STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY...ADVECTION OF
WARM/MOIST AIR IS FAVORING PROPAGATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
COMPLEX. MERGING COLD POOLS AND ANY EMBEDDED ROTATING ELEMENTS WILL
FAVOR POCKETS OF GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION OCCURS
AND CELLS BECOME MORE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT THIS EVENING.

..PICCA/HART.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33558867 34368772 34778725 34608620 34348588 33488576
            32758674 32708804 32898857 33298872 33558867






000
ACUS11 KWNS 292101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292101
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-292300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0502
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHEAST OK...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292101Z - 292300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND ADJACENT
NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OK...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHWEST MO /FROM
VERNON TO JASPER COUNTIES/.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND LOCAL STORM REPORTS
INDICATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE AFFECTED SOUTH-CENTRAL KS AND
NORTH-CENTRAL OK.  AT 2044Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM CHASE TO WILSON AND MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES KS...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXTENDING FROM COWLEY COUNTY KS
TO FAR WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY OK.  E/NELY SURFACE WINDS AND A STABLE
ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO SUGGEST
THIS ACTIVITY IS ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND LIKELY INGESTING
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AT AND ABOVE 0.5 KM
AGL PER TLX AND TULSA VAD WINDS.  THESE STORMS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH SOUTHEAST KS.  CURRENT THINKING SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD OUTRUN THE BETTER INFLOW LAYER OF GREATER
INSTABILITY AS IT REACHES SOUTHWEST MO.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36769692 37349701 38159676 38329579 38369498 37959463
            37429460 37119465 36859540 36699653 36769692






000
ACUS11 KWNS 292056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292056
OKZ000-TXZ000-292200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0501
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 126...

VALID 292056Z - 292200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 126 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL OVER SRN CADDO/NRN COMANCHE COUNTY HAS
STRENGTHENED WITH A BROAD VROT RECENTLY ESTIMATED AROUND 60 KT.
AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM IS CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J PER KG. IN
CONTRAST...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH AT TLX HAS BEEN SHRINKING OVER THE
PAST HOUR AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS. EVEN WITH THE
WEAKENING WINDS...THE TORNADO THREAT WITH THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ALSO REMAIN PROBABLE.

..MOSIER.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33919849 34569888 35349836 35469776 35429562 34529510
            33789653 33919849






000
ACUS11 KWNS 292035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292034
TXZ000-OKZ000-292200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0500
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 124...

VALID 292034Z - 292200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 124 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW NUMEROUS
SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION AMIDST THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE. THE STRONGEST SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE AREA BUT
STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J PER KG/ AND SUFFICIENT
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. STORMS WITH THE
BEST SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS ARE IN JACK AND WISE COUNTIES...AT
THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER SHEAR. RADAR IMAGERY SEEMS TO INDICATE MUCH
OF THE OTHER ACTIVITY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE IS
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. HOWEVER...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND
UPDRAFTS STRENGTHEN...A TRANSITION TO MORE SURFACE-BASED APPEARS
LIKELY.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY E OF I-35 WAS INITIATED WITHIN THE VERY MOIST
WAA REGIME. WIND PROFILE HERE IS EVEN WEAKER THAN AREAS FARTHER W
WITH A PRIMARY OF THREAT OF SVR HAIL.

..MOSIER.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30999870 33709815 33709556 31009615 30999870






000
ACUS01 KWNS 291946
SWODY1
SPC AC 291944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN TX...SRN
OK...AND THE ARKLATEX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX TO AL...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

...SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
NUMEROUS AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT CENTERED OVER
CNTRL AND NRN TX...SRN OK...AND INTO THE ARKLATEX.

AN EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE E OF THE
ADVANCING DRYLINE WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS SWWD FROM A LOW OVER SWRN
OK ACROSS W CNTRL TX...AND S OF A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN OK.
18Z SOUNDING FROM FWD ALSO SHOWS A FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY.
HAIL IS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT...WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF STORM INTERACTION.

TO THE N...A CLUSTER OF CELLS IS RAPIDLY EVOLVING OVER SWRN
OK...CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW. THESE CELLS HAVE LARGELY BEEN N OF THE
MAIN COLD FRONT...BUT HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF EWD PROPAGATION WHICH MAY
MAINTAIN DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO THE SFC-BASED INFLOW. IN
ADDITION...THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER SRN INTO CNTRL OK AS
WELL. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE
CELLS...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. STORM MODE IS COMPLEX BUT A
TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS MAINTAINING
POSITION ALONG THE SW-NE ORIENTED BOUNDARY.

..JEWELL.. 04/29/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT ENEWD
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE I-35
CORRIDOR IN OK/KS LATE TONIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
DEVELOP ENEWD FROM NW TX TO SW OK THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE
NEWD INTO KS OVERNIGHT.  FARTHER E...A BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS BEEN
REINFORCED BY OVERNIGHT/MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM OK INTO AR.
S OF THE BOUNDARY...NEAR SEASONAL MAXIMUM BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
PRESENT /LOW-MID 70S DEWPOINTS AND MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 15-19 G PER
KG/.  THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SOME SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS...WILL SUPPORT STRONG
BUOYANCY TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.

DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS IN THE
WARM SECTOR WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 45 KT.  A SUBTLE LEAD WAVE
NOTED IN VWP DATA ACROSS W/NW TX IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL LIKELY
HELP FOCUS NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARM
SECTOR NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN TX.  STRONG BUOYANCY...RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH
OF 150-200 M2 PER S2/ WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...ISOLATED
VERY LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS.  FARTHER N...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY DRIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO SRN OK...THOUGH
CONTINUING ELEVATED CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL THE SURFACE CYCLONE
MOVES FARTHER N BY TONIGHT.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER INVOF
THE WARM FRONT...AND THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES
WITH STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW.  LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER
FROM ABOUT I-35 EWD INTO SW AR.

THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
LOW INTO SW OK.  NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM SECTOR IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...AND VWP/S ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHOW THE INFLUENCE OF
THE LEAD WAVE ON WIND PROFILES WITH THE MIDLEVEL BACKING.  THERE IS
SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT AMONG NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
DETAILS OF BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS SW AND S CENTRAL OK
THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO THE SPECIFIC EXPECTED STORM STRUCTURES ARE
LIKEWISE UNCERTAIN.  WILL MAINTAIN PART OF ENH RISK INTO SW OK FOR
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH HAIL/WIND...AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES...SINCE RECENT MESONET OBS DO SUGGEST WARMING AND
MOISTENING IS OCCURRING.

FARTHER E IN AR...THE LARGE OVERNIGHT MCS PERSISTS WITH AN MCV OVER
N CENTRAL AR...AND STRONGER CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS SRN AR.  IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THIS OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY OR EVEN DRIFT SWD/SEWD AS A RESULT ON CONTINUING
OUTFLOW REINFORCEMENT BY CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  OTHER
WARM SECTOR STORMS HAVE FORMED IN NW LA WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS...AND
MORE SUCH DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO NE TX AND
NW LA.  BUOYANCY/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE WILL FAVOR A HAIL RISK WITH
ANY SUSTAINED STORMS...ALONG WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND A FEW
TORNADOES.

$$





000
ACUS11 KWNS 291840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291840
OKZ000-TXZ000-291945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0499
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SW/S-CNTRL/CNTRL OK...FAR NW/FAR N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291840Z - 291945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE PROBABLE FROM
SW OK EWD/NEWD TO CNTRL/S-CNTRL OK AND FAR N-CNTRL TX. A TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO ADDRESS THIS SEVERE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...RECENT GOES-14 1-MINUTE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS SCATTERED CLEARING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WITH THIS
FILTERED SUNSHINE CONTRIBUTION TO A JUMP IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 60S AT 15Z TO LOW/MID 70S AT 18Z ALONG THE RED RIVER.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE LOW
ABOUT 50 MI SSE OF CDS WITH A WARM FROM EXTENDING NEWD TOWARDS CHK
AND THEN EWD TO ADR AND SEWD TOWARDS DEQ IN SE OK /DEMARCATED FAIRLY
WELL BY THE 65 DEG F ISODROSOTHERM/. SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO REVEALS A
CONVERGENT WIND FIELD AND A MORE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
JUST S OF AXS NEWD TO BVO.

OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...AND LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT...WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW THE SURFACE PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS THE
NRN BOUND TO MOISTURE ADVECTION...EFFECTIVELY BECOMING THE WARM
FRONT AS SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN THE VICINITY OF
LOGAN COUNTY.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER SW OK WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR CDS
CONTINUES EWD. MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER
FROM SW OK IS 2000 J PER KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT.
SOME BACKING IS NOTED AROUND 3 KM ON THE FDR AND TLX VAD PROFILES
BUT BACKED SURFACE WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 0-1 KM SRH OVER 100
M2/S2. THIS THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SVR HAZARDS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO
COVER THIS THREAT.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34429944 35079844 35549780 35489690 35079589 34739560
            34319552 33919564 33589595 33459648 33569727 33929830
            33979919 34429944






000
ACUS11 KWNS 291753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291752
TXZ000-291945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0498
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291752Z - 291945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS ONE OR MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED BROKEN BANDS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL TX...GENERALLY IN VICINITY AND WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR.  ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE WEATHER
WATCHES LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE STREAMING TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AS
FAR NORTH AS THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX.  GOES-14 1-MINUTE
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED CU FORMING AS N-S ORIENTED CLOUD STREETS
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...AS SURFACE HEATING BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES IS RESULTING IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2500-3000 J
PER KG/.

MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED ONE STORM HAD
DEVELOPED IN HAYS COUNTY TX...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BECOMING
DEEPER FARTHER WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST FROM KIMBLE TO ERATH COUNTIES
TX.  THIS LATTER CORRIDOR APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL AND SWLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS.  AS THE ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS LIKELY GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMIC AND
KINEMATIC FIELDS.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   32929662 31179705 30089769 30059880 30419985 31289930
            32339866 33089820 33139789 32929662






000
ACUS11 KWNS 291752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291751
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-291945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN AR/NRN LA/NERN TX/SERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291751Z - 291945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR TSTM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON...AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
FROM NERN TX TO NWRN LA ALONG A ZONE OF MODEST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY BEING SUSTAINED NWD FROM FAR SERN
OK TO SRN AR. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MODEST ASCENT WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NWD...WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY. THE SHV VWP IS SAMPLING AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP
SHEAR THAT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES...INCLUDING
SUPERCELL CLUSTERS. SVR WIND/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME TORNADO RISK...THOUGH NUMEROUS
INTERACTING CELLS MAY TEMPER THE OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL. WITH
CONTINUED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF STORM INFLOW...STORM INTENSITY
WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POTENTIALLY WARRANTING
TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE SOON.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON   32049397 32049610 32639647 33639599 34329466 34159291
            33459213 32499240 32049397






000
ACUS11 KWNS 291738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291737
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-291900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL MS...FAR NE LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291737Z - 291900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LINE OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AS IT CONTINUES EWD/NEWD INTO NRN/CNTRL MS AND FAR NE LA. WW
ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASING
STORM STRENGTH.

DISCUSSION...AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF A LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM
JUST W OF NQA SWWD TO MLU -- MOVING ROUGHLY NNEWD AT 35 KT -- IS
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING AS A RESULT OF MODEST DIURNAL HEATING.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE FROM 1000-2000 J PER KG AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION AND ISOLATED SVR THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME
DISSOCIATION EXISTS BETWEEN THE BETTER SHEAR /NEAR AND N OF NQA/ AND
THE BEST INSTABILITY /ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN MS/. THIS DISSOCIATION
COUPLED WITH A PRIMARILY LINEAR MODE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH AND/OR ORGANIZATION AS THE LINE CONTINUES EWD/NEWD. EVEN
SO...EPISODIC UPDRAFT STRENGTHENING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AND TRENDS ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33729071 34459023 34908969 34898885 34568851 33878856
            32698890 31918960 31779017 32239175 33729071






000
ACUS02 KWNS 291715
SWODY2
SPC AC 291714

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SABINE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO
NRN GA...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

...SYNOPSIS...
WITH AN UPPER LOW STATIONARY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE NEWD FROM THE ARKLATEX TOWARD THE MS
VALLEY...LOSING AMPLITUDE ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING WIND FIELDS
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER ERN KS
SAT MORNING WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO ERN TX. THIS
LOW WILL FILL DURING THE DAY AS IT SHIFTS EWD ALONG I-70 WITH SRN
PORTION LINGERING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS DURING THE DAY WITH EARLY
DAY STORMS LIKELY.

SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FROM ERN TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS...MAINTAINED BY
CONTINUED SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR...ALBEIT WITH WEAK LIFT.

...MID MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF AR...MO...AND
IL. LIFT IN THIS REGION WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED BY HEIGHT FALLS AND
COOLING ALOFT WITH THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOME WIND AND
HAIL THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WITH
CELLS NEAR THE SFC WARM FRONT LATER IN THE DAY WHEN INSTABILITY WILL
BE GREATER. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MODESTLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY GIVEN PROPER
STORM MODE AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND/OR
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

...LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY...
STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY ACROSS AR...AND PERHAPS THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY WITH ANY SEVERE THREAT LIKELY WANING AS THE UPPER
TROUGHS EXITS TO THE NE. THESE EARLY STORMS MAY PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN AR/NRN MS WHICH COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON SEVERE STORMS. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL
MATERIALIZE WITH HEATING AND DESPITE SOMEWHAT NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH....WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS VERY LARGE. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWWD TOWARD HOUSTON AS WELL WITH ONLY WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE.

...NRN GA...WRN CAROLINAS...
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND BACK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS TO SURGE BACK
NWWD BEHIND THE RETREATING FRONT WITH COOL/STABLE AIR TO THE N.
STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ON THIS BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN A FEW
STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ALSO AIDING IN THE
SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY CELLULAR STORM MODE WITH VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT IN THE LOWER 3 KM. A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SHOULD CELLS TRACK EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

..JEWELL.. 04/29/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 291631
SWODY1
SPC AC 291630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FOR SW AR...S CENTRAL AND SE OK...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND N
TX INTO NE TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S CENTRAL TX NWD TO
WRN/NRN OK AND EWD TO THE ARKLAMISS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

...SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM THIS MORNING WILL PIVOT ENEWD
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE I-35
CORRIDOR IN OK/KS LATE TONIGHT.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
DEVELOP ENEWD FROM NW TX TO SW OK THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE
NEWD INTO KS OVERNIGHT.  FARTHER E...A BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS BEEN
REINFORCED BY OVERNIGHT/MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM OK INTO AR.
S OF THE BOUNDARY...NEAR SEASONAL MAXIMUM BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
PRESENT /LOW-MID 70S DEWPOINTS AND MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 15-19 G PER
KG/.  THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND SOME SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS...WILL SUPPORT STRONG
BUOYANCY TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.

DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS IN THE
WARM SECTOR WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 45 KT.  A SUBTLE LEAD WAVE
NOTED IN VWP DATA ACROSS W/NW TX IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL LIKELY
HELP FOCUS NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WARM
SECTOR NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN TX.  STRONG BUOYANCY...RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH
OF 150-200 M2 PER S2/ WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...ISOLATED
VERY LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS.  FARTHER N...THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY DRIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO SRN OK...THOUGH
CONTINUING ELEVATED CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL THE SURFACE CYCLONE
MOVES FARTHER N BY TONIGHT.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER INVOF
THE WARM FRONT...AND THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES
WITH STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW.  LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS ALONG THE RED RIVER
FROM ABOUT I-35 EWD INTO SW AR.

THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
LOW INTO SW OK.  NWD PROGRESS OF THE WARM SECTOR IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN...AND VWP/S ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHOW THE INFLUENCE OF
THE LEAD WAVE ON WIND PROFILES WITH THE MIDLEVEL BACKING.  THERE IS
SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT AMONG NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
DETAILS OF BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS SW AND S CENTRAL OK
THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO THE SPECIFIC EXPECTED STORM STRUCTURES ARE
LIKEWISE UNCERTAIN.  WILL MAINTAIN PART OF ENH RISK INTO SW OK FOR
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WITH HAIL/WIND...AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES...SINCE RECENT MESONET OBS DO SUGGEST WARMING AND
MOISTENING IS OCCURRING.

FARTHER E IN AR...THE LARGE OVERNIGHT MCS PERSISTS WITH AN MCV OVER
N CENTRAL AR...AND STRONGER CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS SRN AR.  IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THIS OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY OR EVEN DRIFT SWD/SEWD AS A RESULT ON CONTINUING
OUTFLOW REINFORCEMENT BY CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  OTHER
WARM SECTOR STORMS HAVE FORMED IN NW LA WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS...AND
MORE SUCH DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO NE TX AND
NW LA.  BUOYANCY/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE WILL FAVOR A HAIL RISK WITH
ANY SUSTAINED STORMS...ALONG WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND A FEW
TORNADOES.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 04/29/2016

$$





000
ACUS11 KWNS 291447
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291446
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-291615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0495
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AR...NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN
TX...AND WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 123...

VALID 291446Z - 291615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 123
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LACK OF A CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS WW 123 WILL ALLOW THIS WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 15Z.  ADDITIONAL
ELEVATED STORMS THAT RECENTLY FORMED IN NORTHEAST TX TO NORTHWEST LA
WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND POTENTIAL WATCH
CONSIDERATIONS.

DISCUSSION...AT 1430Z...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE
MCS MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS AR...WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS LOCATED
ON THE SOUTHEAST LEADING EDGE IN JEFFERSON AND BRADLEY COUNTIES. THE
S/SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...SUGGESTING THE MCS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...WHILE IR IMAGERY SHOWED A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE MCS.

MEANWHILE...RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITHIN THE WAA
ATTENDANT TO THE S/SWLY LLJ.  GIVEN THE FORECAST WEAKENING OF THIS
LLJ AND TRENDS IN THE HRRR INDICATING THIS NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD PERSIST...YET NOT INCREASE IN INTENSITY SUGGESTS A NEW WW IS
NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
DOWNSTREAM INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN MS FOR ANY INCREASE IN STORM
INTENSITY AND SEVERE THREAT.  THE 12Z SHV SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SHEAR FAVORING HAIL PRODUCTION WITH
THE STRONGEST CELLS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34079448 35079312 35019114 34559035 33179078 32589142
            32039222 31569313 31599369 32449437 33209486 34079448






000
ACUS01 KWNS 291301
SWODY1
SPC AC 291300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH TEXAS...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF OK...CENTRAL AND
ERN TX...AND EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW CROSSING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ATTM PER MORNING WV LOOP
IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD WITH TIME...REACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  MEANWHILE...A SECOND LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG SSEWD
OUT OF THE PAC...REACHING THE CA/NV VICINITY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  IN THE E...RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SERN
STATES...WHILE A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA CROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST IN WLY FLOW ON THE NRN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW MOVING INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS REGION THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS WRN N TX THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN NWD INTO KS OVERNIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS WRN KS/OK/NWRN TX THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER E...A DRYLINE IS PROGGED TO MIX EWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE A ROUGHLY W-E WARM FRONT SHIFTS NWD
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.  THIS EVOLVING SURFACE SYSTEM WILL FOCUS
THE PRIMARY ZONE OF CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK THIS PERIOD.

...SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
A VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO PERSISTS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX
VICINITY THIS MORNING...AS SEVERAL AREAS OF ACTIVE/SEVERE STORMS ARE
ONGOING.  AS QG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION...CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE/INCREASE -- PARTICULARLY N OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...THUS
LIKELY HINDERING POTENTIAL FOR HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

ATTM...A FEW STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS -- NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW -- AND SWD INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN VICINITY -- ALONG THE
DRYLINE.  AS THE LOW/DRYLINE SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...AND WARM-SECTOR CAPPING GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE.
GIVEN DIURNAL HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE S OF THE
WARM FRONT...MODERATE DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING
SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS...AND ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.

FARTHER N ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND ARKLATEX REGION INTO
OK...NWD ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN...LIKELY
HINDERED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING BY ONGOING
CONVECTION/CLOUDINESS/OUTFLOW. WITH THAT SAID...SEVERAL CAM RUNS
DEPICT ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE ERN OK/WRN AR AREA EVENTUALLY
DEPARTING EWD...POSSIBLY ALLOWING THE WARM FRONT TO SHIFT INTO SRN
OK -- ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.  GIVEN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INVOF THE LOW/WARM FRONT...RISK FOR
TORNADOES WOULD APPEAR MAXIMIZED.  THUS...WILL ADJUST WRN PORTIONS
OF THE ENH RISK AREA SWD -- TO WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO RESIDE.

WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS SRN OK AND NRN/CENTRAL TX
AND INTO THE ARKLATEX AND TX COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE
STRONGER STORMS IN ADDITION TO SOME TORNADO RISK.

FARTHER E...AN MCS ONGOING ACROSS AR WILL LIKELY PERSIST/SPREAD EWD
INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE FRONT -- WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS NRN LA AND INTO CENTRAL MS.  GIVEN
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA...THE ONGOING/EWD-MOVING STORM CLUSTER -- PLUS NEW STORMS
DEVELOPING FARTHER E ALONG THE FRONT -- WILL ALSO POSE A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.

..GOSS/GLEASON.. 04/29/2016

$$





000
ACUS11 KWNS 291238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291238
TXZ000-291415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0494
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291238Z - 291415Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF A SUPERCELL CENTERED OVER LAMB/HALE COUNTY. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT NEAR-TERM...SHOULD THIS
OCCUR A TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...A LONE SUPERCELL HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST HOUR AND IS
CENTERED ON LAMB/HALE COUNTY AS OF 1230Z. DURING ITS LIFE CYCLE...A
TIGHT MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPED BUT HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED. LBB VWP DATA
SAMPLED THE INFLOW ENVIRONMENT WELL WITH AN ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 35 KT. WHILE THIS
STORM FORMED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE NOW ACCELERATING SURFACE
CYCLONE...STORM DEVELOPMENT IN FLANKING CUMULUS TO ITS SOUTH/EAST
HAS FAILED TO OCCUR. GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND LACK OF SIGNAL IN
CAMS...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST ALONG THE DRYLINE AND/OR WARM FRONT TO OFFER
ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE
TO ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS AND POTENTIAL FOR ALL HAZARDS.

..GRAMS/GOSS.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   34210209 34560132 34470051 34249991 33869950 33339954
            32949988 32850051 32970146 33550211 33910224 34210209






000
ACUS11 KWNS 291206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291206
ARZ000-291300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0493
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0706 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 123...

VALID 291206Z - 291300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 123
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS NEXT FEW HOURS. AREAL
 EXTENSION OF WW 123 INTO SOUTHEAST AR SHOULD BE CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...MOST INTENSE STORMS WITHIN WW 123 WERE LOCATED WITHIN
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE WATCH AS OF 12Z. THIS CONVECTION IS
LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED JUST N OF THE SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
FAR NORTH TX THROUGH TEXARKANA AND FAR SOUTH AR. WHILE TIME-SERIES
OF SHV VWP DATA HAS INDICATED SOME WEAKENING OF THE LLJ IN THE PAST
HOUR...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHEAST AR THROUGH THE REMAINING VALID PERIOD OF THE WATCH. STEEP
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 DEG C/KM AS SAMPLED BY 12Z LITTLE ROCK
RAOB WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY
THREAT...WITH EMBEDDED STRONG WIND GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE AMID A
CLUSTER MODE.

..GRAMS.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   34279314 34479257 34449180 34279131 34019127 33759157
            33539182 33419227 33479281 33669310 33829323 34279314






000
ACUS11 KWNS 290954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290954
OKZ000-TXZ000-291100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TX...FAR WEST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 122...

VALID 290954Z - 291100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 122
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST BEYOND
SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF WW 122. WHETHER THE THREAT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A REPLACEMENT WW IS UNCLEAR...AND SPC WILL BE
CONTACTING AFFECTED WFOS ABOUT THE RISK BEYOND 11Z.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STORM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING FROM NORTHWEST OK
SOUTHWEST TO THE TX S PLAINS. CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED TO GREATLY
INTENSIFY BEYOND STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE LEVELS IN SPITE OF
LARGE CYCLONIC HODOGRAPHS SAMPLED IN AMA/LBB VWP DATA NEAR/NORTH OF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT ARCS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NM TO NEAR LBB
AND EAST ACROSS NORTH TX. FARTHER SOUTH...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
CONVECTIVE BAND HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN LBB/MAF WITHIN A MORE
FAVORABLE SURFACE-BASED ENVIRONMENT. THE 08Z HRRR SUGGESTS THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. WITH A CONDITIONALLY
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...CONCERN EXISTS THAT AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO MID-MORNING.

..GRAMS.. 04/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   34790297 35320232 36020137 36320057 36190008 35879978
            35089967 34139969 33150026 32770066 32640137 32810171
            33700191 34090257 34350297 34790297






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