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000
ACUS01 KWNS 051256
SWODY1
SPC AC 051255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT SAT SEP 05 2015

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SERN MT AND WRN ND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM CENTRAL MT TO
WRN LS REGION AND SWD OVER NERN NEB...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  THE GREATEST THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO CONCENTRATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TOWARD
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER N-CENTRAL CONUS WILL
BREAK DOWN THIS PERIOD AS CYCLONE ALOFT -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER INTERIOR WA/ORE -- EJECTS NEWD.  BY
00Z...PRIMARY 500-MB LOW/VORTICITY MAX SHOULD BE LOCATED INVOF MT/AB
BORDER...WITH POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS SRN
ID...NRN NV...AND S-CENTRAL CA.  BY 12Z...LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER
SRN AB...WHILE STG BASAL VORTICITY LOBE PIVOTS NEWD ACROSS ERN MT.
INITIALLY WEAK/PRECURSORY PERTURBATION -- EMBEDDED IN SWLY FLOW OVER
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ATTM -- IS FCST TO INTENSIFY...REACHING ERN ND
AND W-CENTRAL/SERN MN BY 00Z BEFORE EJECTING NEWD TO FAR NWRN ONT.

AT SFC...LOWS WERE SHOWN ON 11Z ANALYSIS OVER CENTRAL/SERN SD AND
ALSO ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN NWRN SD.  THAT FRONT EXTENDED NEWD ACROSS
EXTREME NWRN MN AND SWWD OVER SWRN WY AND NRN UT.  MAIN LOW IS FCST
TO CONSOLIDATE/DEEPEN OVER NWRN SD/SERN MT AREA TODAY BEFORE MOVING
ENEWD CLOSE TO ND/SD BORDER TONIGHT...AND WEAKENING AGAIN.
MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH SERN ND...CENTRAL SD...WRN
NEB...AND NERN CO BY END OF PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DRYLINE NOW
DIFFUSELY EVIDENT OVER ERN WY...ERN CO AND NERN NM SHOULD MIX EWD
THROUGH AFTN AND BECOME MORE SHARPLY DEFINED BY 00Z...EXTENDING FROM
W-CENTRAL SD SWD ACROSS WRN KS AND TX PANHANDLE...CLOSE TO OR
COLLOCATED WITH POSITION OF LEE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONFLUENCE
ZONE.

...N-CENTRAL CONUS...
SEVERAL EPISODES OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NEWD ACROSS
THIS REGION TODAY THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LEADING SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION EJECTS NEWD ACROSS NRN LOW PLAINS AND MAIN TROUGH APCHS
NRN HIGH PLAINS.  CONVECTION MAY BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO POSE
THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR HAIL/GUSTS.  ATTM...SPECIFIC FOCI
STILL APPEAR NEBULOUS OVER MOST OF THIS REGION.

HOWEVER...ONE CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED SVR POTENTIAL IS
BECOMING APPARENT OVER SERN MT...AND OTHERS MAY BECOME APPARENT
THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS AS MESOSCALE FOCI DEVELOP.  TSTMS MAY FORM
THIS AFTN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF S-CENTRAL/SERN MT AND MOVE NEWD TO
ENEWD...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SUPERCELLS.  POSTFRONTAL OUTFLOW FROM
PRIOR/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS SETTLED SWD AND SWWD ACROSS SERN
MT...AND ELEVATED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ZONE
ATOP THAT AIR MASS ATTM...OVER NERN MT.  WHILE THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN NON-SVR...MODIFIED OUTFLOW WILL REINFORCE NELY/ENELY
POST-FRONTAL GRADIENT FLOW TODAY...AIDED BY ISALLOBARIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH SLGT DEEPENING OF SFC LOW.  RESULTANT UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF NEAR-SFC WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BOTH
DIRECT/MECHANICAL LIFT ON HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADVECTION OF RICHER
MOISTURE INTO REGION FROM ND.  IN CONCERT WITH AFTN SFC
HEATING...1500-2000 J/KG MAY DEVELOP IN CORRIDOR ALIGNED WSW-ENE
ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN MT.  NELY SFC FLOW ALSO WILL ELONGATE
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS...IN SUPPORT
OF SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.

SVR THREAT WILL DIMINISH NWD FROM THIS AREA BECAUSE OF COOLER
ANTECEDENT AIR MASS AND CONTINUING CAA...WHILE FARTHER S ACROSS
WY...MIXING/DRYING WILL REDUCE SVR RISK.  CLUSTER OR SMALL MCS
EVOLVING FROM ACTIVITY IN THIS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE SWATH MAY
MAINTAIN SVR POTENTIAL AS IT MOVES INTO WRN ND THIS EVENING...BEFORE
COMBINATION OF POSTFRONTAL CAA AND DIABATIC COOLING STABILIZE
FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER TOO MUCH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SVR WIND.

ELSEWHERE...DEEP SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS
NRN PLAINS...WITH GREATER DISTANCE FROM MID/UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHT-GRADIENT ENHANCEMENTS BROUGHT ABOUT BY PROGRESSION OF
NWRN-CONUS TROUGH.  WHILE EJECTING/MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE SOME LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN SUPPORT OF TSTM POTENTIAL
TODAY...WEAKER DEEP SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY LOWER LAPSE RATES ARE FCST
COMPARED TO FARTHER W.  ONGOING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER OVER WRN
DAKOTAS ALSO MAY DELAY/PRECLUDE SUBSTANTIAL DIABATIC DESTABILIZATION
TODAY OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION.  GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND LACK OF
SHARPER SFC BOUNDARIES...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO LARGE TO DRAW MORE
THAN 5% UNCONDITIONAL SVR WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES ATTM.

...SERN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TODAY OVER BROAD SWATH OF SERN STATES FROM GA AND SRN APPALACHIANS
SWWD ACROSS MS DELTA REGION AND LA.  DAMAGING GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER THREAT APPEARS TOO UNFOCUSED ATTM TO
SPECIFY UNCONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES AOA 5%.  WEAK
LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL FLOW AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL SHEAR
INDICATE MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED...PULSE AND
MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE.  SFC HEATING AND DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S F SHOULD OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE.  ANY SVR POTENTIAL MAY DEPEND ON
LOCALIZED/UPSCALE GROWTH OF COLD POOLS FROM MERGERS OF CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS.

..EDWARDS/PICCA.. 09/05/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 051256
SWODY1
SPC AC 051255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT SAT SEP 05 2015

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SERN MT AND WRN ND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM CENTRAL MT TO
WRN LS REGION AND SWD OVER NERN NEB...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  THE GREATEST THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO CONCENTRATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TOWARD
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER N-CENTRAL CONUS WILL
BREAK DOWN THIS PERIOD AS CYCLONE ALOFT -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER INTERIOR WA/ORE -- EJECTS NEWD.  BY
00Z...PRIMARY 500-MB LOW/VORTICITY MAX SHOULD BE LOCATED INVOF MT/AB
BORDER...WITH POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS SRN
ID...NRN NV...AND S-CENTRAL CA.  BY 12Z...LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER
SRN AB...WHILE STG BASAL VORTICITY LOBE PIVOTS NEWD ACROSS ERN MT.
INITIALLY WEAK/PRECURSORY PERTURBATION -- EMBEDDED IN SWLY FLOW OVER
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ATTM -- IS FCST TO INTENSIFY...REACHING ERN ND
AND W-CENTRAL/SERN MN BY 00Z BEFORE EJECTING NEWD TO FAR NWRN ONT.

AT SFC...LOWS WERE SHOWN ON 11Z ANALYSIS OVER CENTRAL/SERN SD AND
ALSO ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN NWRN SD.  THAT FRONT EXTENDED NEWD ACROSS
EXTREME NWRN MN AND SWWD OVER SWRN WY AND NRN UT.  MAIN LOW IS FCST
TO CONSOLIDATE/DEEPEN OVER NWRN SD/SERN MT AREA TODAY BEFORE MOVING
ENEWD CLOSE TO ND/SD BORDER TONIGHT...AND WEAKENING AGAIN.
MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH SERN ND...CENTRAL SD...WRN
NEB...AND NERN CO BY END OF PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DRYLINE NOW
DIFFUSELY EVIDENT OVER ERN WY...ERN CO AND NERN NM SHOULD MIX EWD
THROUGH AFTN AND BECOME MORE SHARPLY DEFINED BY 00Z...EXTENDING FROM
W-CENTRAL SD SWD ACROSS WRN KS AND TX PANHANDLE...CLOSE TO OR
COLLOCATED WITH POSITION OF LEE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONFLUENCE
ZONE.

...N-CENTRAL CONUS...
SEVERAL EPISODES OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NEWD ACROSS
THIS REGION TODAY THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LEADING SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION EJECTS NEWD ACROSS NRN LOW PLAINS AND MAIN TROUGH APCHS
NRN HIGH PLAINS.  CONVECTION MAY BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO POSE
THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR HAIL/GUSTS.  ATTM...SPECIFIC FOCI
STILL APPEAR NEBULOUS OVER MOST OF THIS REGION.

HOWEVER...ONE CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED SVR POTENTIAL IS
BECOMING APPARENT OVER SERN MT...AND OTHERS MAY BECOME APPARENT
THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS AS MESOSCALE FOCI DEVELOP.  TSTMS MAY FORM
THIS AFTN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF S-CENTRAL/SERN MT AND MOVE NEWD TO
ENEWD...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SUPERCELLS.  POSTFRONTAL OUTFLOW FROM
PRIOR/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS SETTLED SWD AND SWWD ACROSS SERN
MT...AND ELEVATED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ZONE
ATOP THAT AIR MASS ATTM...OVER NERN MT.  WHILE THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN NON-SVR...MODIFIED OUTFLOW WILL REINFORCE NELY/ENELY
POST-FRONTAL GRADIENT FLOW TODAY...AIDED BY ISALLOBARIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH SLGT DEEPENING OF SFC LOW.  RESULTANT UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF NEAR-SFC WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BOTH
DIRECT/MECHANICAL LIFT ON HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADVECTION OF RICHER
MOISTURE INTO REGION FROM ND.  IN CONCERT WITH AFTN SFC
HEATING...1500-2000 J/KG MAY DEVELOP IN CORRIDOR ALIGNED WSW-ENE
ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN MT.  NELY SFC FLOW ALSO WILL ELONGATE
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS...IN SUPPORT
OF SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.

SVR THREAT WILL DIMINISH NWD FROM THIS AREA BECAUSE OF COOLER
ANTECEDENT AIR MASS AND CONTINUING CAA...WHILE FARTHER S ACROSS
WY...MIXING/DRYING WILL REDUCE SVR RISK.  CLUSTER OR SMALL MCS
EVOLVING FROM ACTIVITY IN THIS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE SWATH MAY
MAINTAIN SVR POTENTIAL AS IT MOVES INTO WRN ND THIS EVENING...BEFORE
COMBINATION OF POSTFRONTAL CAA AND DIABATIC COOLING STABILIZE
FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER TOO MUCH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SVR WIND.

ELSEWHERE...DEEP SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS
NRN PLAINS...WITH GREATER DISTANCE FROM MID/UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHT-GRADIENT ENHANCEMENTS BROUGHT ABOUT BY PROGRESSION OF
NWRN-CONUS TROUGH.  WHILE EJECTING/MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE SOME LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN SUPPORT OF TSTM POTENTIAL
TODAY...WEAKER DEEP SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY LOWER LAPSE RATES ARE FCST
COMPARED TO FARTHER W.  ONGOING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER OVER WRN
DAKOTAS ALSO MAY DELAY/PRECLUDE SUBSTANTIAL DIABATIC DESTABILIZATION
TODAY OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION.  GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND LACK OF
SHARPER SFC BOUNDARIES...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO LARGE TO DRAW MORE
THAN 5% UNCONDITIONAL SVR WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES ATTM.

...SERN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TODAY OVER BROAD SWATH OF SERN STATES FROM GA AND SRN APPALACHIANS
SWWD ACROSS MS DELTA REGION AND LA.  DAMAGING GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER THREAT APPEARS TOO UNFOCUSED ATTM TO
SPECIFY UNCONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES AOA 5%.  WEAK
LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL FLOW AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL SHEAR
INDICATE MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED...PULSE AND
MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE.  SFC HEATING AND DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S F SHOULD OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE.  ANY SVR POTENTIAL MAY DEPEND ON
LOCALIZED/UPSCALE GROWTH OF COLD POOLS FROM MERGERS OF CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS.

..EDWARDS/PICCA.. 09/05/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 051256
SWODY1
SPC AC 051255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT SAT SEP 05 2015

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SERN MT AND WRN ND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM CENTRAL MT TO
WRN LS REGION AND SWD OVER NERN NEB...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  THE GREATEST THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO CONCENTRATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TOWARD
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER N-CENTRAL CONUS WILL
BREAK DOWN THIS PERIOD AS CYCLONE ALOFT -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER INTERIOR WA/ORE -- EJECTS NEWD.  BY
00Z...PRIMARY 500-MB LOW/VORTICITY MAX SHOULD BE LOCATED INVOF MT/AB
BORDER...WITH POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS SRN
ID...NRN NV...AND S-CENTRAL CA.  BY 12Z...LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER
SRN AB...WHILE STG BASAL VORTICITY LOBE PIVOTS NEWD ACROSS ERN MT.
INITIALLY WEAK/PRECURSORY PERTURBATION -- EMBEDDED IN SWLY FLOW OVER
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ATTM -- IS FCST TO INTENSIFY...REACHING ERN ND
AND W-CENTRAL/SERN MN BY 00Z BEFORE EJECTING NEWD TO FAR NWRN ONT.

AT SFC...LOWS WERE SHOWN ON 11Z ANALYSIS OVER CENTRAL/SERN SD AND
ALSO ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN NWRN SD.  THAT FRONT EXTENDED NEWD ACROSS
EXTREME NWRN MN AND SWWD OVER SWRN WY AND NRN UT.  MAIN LOW IS FCST
TO CONSOLIDATE/DEEPEN OVER NWRN SD/SERN MT AREA TODAY BEFORE MOVING
ENEWD CLOSE TO ND/SD BORDER TONIGHT...AND WEAKENING AGAIN.
MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH SERN ND...CENTRAL SD...WRN
NEB...AND NERN CO BY END OF PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DRYLINE NOW
DIFFUSELY EVIDENT OVER ERN WY...ERN CO AND NERN NM SHOULD MIX EWD
THROUGH AFTN AND BECOME MORE SHARPLY DEFINED BY 00Z...EXTENDING FROM
W-CENTRAL SD SWD ACROSS WRN KS AND TX PANHANDLE...CLOSE TO OR
COLLOCATED WITH POSITION OF LEE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONFLUENCE
ZONE.

...N-CENTRAL CONUS...
SEVERAL EPISODES OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NEWD ACROSS
THIS REGION TODAY THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LEADING SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION EJECTS NEWD ACROSS NRN LOW PLAINS AND MAIN TROUGH APCHS
NRN HIGH PLAINS.  CONVECTION MAY BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO POSE
THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR HAIL/GUSTS.  ATTM...SPECIFIC FOCI
STILL APPEAR NEBULOUS OVER MOST OF THIS REGION.

HOWEVER...ONE CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED SVR POTENTIAL IS
BECOMING APPARENT OVER SERN MT...AND OTHERS MAY BECOME APPARENT
THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS AS MESOSCALE FOCI DEVELOP.  TSTMS MAY FORM
THIS AFTN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF S-CENTRAL/SERN MT AND MOVE NEWD TO
ENEWD...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SUPERCELLS.  POSTFRONTAL OUTFLOW FROM
PRIOR/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS SETTLED SWD AND SWWD ACROSS SERN
MT...AND ELEVATED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ZONE
ATOP THAT AIR MASS ATTM...OVER NERN MT.  WHILE THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN NON-SVR...MODIFIED OUTFLOW WILL REINFORCE NELY/ENELY
POST-FRONTAL GRADIENT FLOW TODAY...AIDED BY ISALLOBARIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH SLGT DEEPENING OF SFC LOW.  RESULTANT UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF NEAR-SFC WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BOTH
DIRECT/MECHANICAL LIFT ON HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADVECTION OF RICHER
MOISTURE INTO REGION FROM ND.  IN CONCERT WITH AFTN SFC
HEATING...1500-2000 J/KG MAY DEVELOP IN CORRIDOR ALIGNED WSW-ENE
ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN MT.  NELY SFC FLOW ALSO WILL ELONGATE
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS...IN SUPPORT
OF SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.

SVR THREAT WILL DIMINISH NWD FROM THIS AREA BECAUSE OF COOLER
ANTECEDENT AIR MASS AND CONTINUING CAA...WHILE FARTHER S ACROSS
WY...MIXING/DRYING WILL REDUCE SVR RISK.  CLUSTER OR SMALL MCS
EVOLVING FROM ACTIVITY IN THIS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE SWATH MAY
MAINTAIN SVR POTENTIAL AS IT MOVES INTO WRN ND THIS EVENING...BEFORE
COMBINATION OF POSTFRONTAL CAA AND DIABATIC COOLING STABILIZE
FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER TOO MUCH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SVR WIND.

ELSEWHERE...DEEP SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS
NRN PLAINS...WITH GREATER DISTANCE FROM MID/UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHT-GRADIENT ENHANCEMENTS BROUGHT ABOUT BY PROGRESSION OF
NWRN-CONUS TROUGH.  WHILE EJECTING/MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE SOME LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN SUPPORT OF TSTM POTENTIAL
TODAY...WEAKER DEEP SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY LOWER LAPSE RATES ARE FCST
COMPARED TO FARTHER W.  ONGOING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER OVER WRN
DAKOTAS ALSO MAY DELAY/PRECLUDE SUBSTANTIAL DIABATIC DESTABILIZATION
TODAY OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION.  GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND LACK OF
SHARPER SFC BOUNDARIES...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO LARGE TO DRAW MORE
THAN 5% UNCONDITIONAL SVR WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES ATTM.

...SERN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TODAY OVER BROAD SWATH OF SERN STATES FROM GA AND SRN APPALACHIANS
SWWD ACROSS MS DELTA REGION AND LA.  DAMAGING GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER THREAT APPEARS TOO UNFOCUSED ATTM TO
SPECIFY UNCONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES AOA 5%.  WEAK
LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL FLOW AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL SHEAR
INDICATE MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED...PULSE AND
MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE.  SFC HEATING AND DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S F SHOULD OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE.  ANY SVR POTENTIAL MAY DEPEND ON
LOCALIZED/UPSCALE GROWTH OF COLD POOLS FROM MERGERS OF CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS.

..EDWARDS/PICCA.. 09/05/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 051256
SWODY1
SPC AC 051255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT SAT SEP 05 2015

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SERN MT AND WRN ND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM CENTRAL MT TO
WRN LS REGION AND SWD OVER NERN NEB...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  THE GREATEST THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS TO CONCENTRATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA TOWARD
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER N-CENTRAL CONUS WILL
BREAK DOWN THIS PERIOD AS CYCLONE ALOFT -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER INTERIOR WA/ORE -- EJECTS NEWD.  BY
00Z...PRIMARY 500-MB LOW/VORTICITY MAX SHOULD BE LOCATED INVOF MT/AB
BORDER...WITH POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS SRN
ID...NRN NV...AND S-CENTRAL CA.  BY 12Z...LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER
SRN AB...WHILE STG BASAL VORTICITY LOBE PIVOTS NEWD ACROSS ERN MT.
INITIALLY WEAK/PRECURSORY PERTURBATION -- EMBEDDED IN SWLY FLOW OVER
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ATTM -- IS FCST TO INTENSIFY...REACHING ERN ND
AND W-CENTRAL/SERN MN BY 00Z BEFORE EJECTING NEWD TO FAR NWRN ONT.

AT SFC...LOWS WERE SHOWN ON 11Z ANALYSIS OVER CENTRAL/SERN SD AND
ALSO ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN NWRN SD.  THAT FRONT EXTENDED NEWD ACROSS
EXTREME NWRN MN AND SWWD OVER SWRN WY AND NRN UT.  MAIN LOW IS FCST
TO CONSOLIDATE/DEEPEN OVER NWRN SD/SERN MT AREA TODAY BEFORE MOVING
ENEWD CLOSE TO ND/SD BORDER TONIGHT...AND WEAKENING AGAIN.
MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH SERN ND...CENTRAL SD...WRN
NEB...AND NERN CO BY END OF PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...DRYLINE NOW
DIFFUSELY EVIDENT OVER ERN WY...ERN CO AND NERN NM SHOULD MIX EWD
THROUGH AFTN AND BECOME MORE SHARPLY DEFINED BY 00Z...EXTENDING FROM
W-CENTRAL SD SWD ACROSS WRN KS AND TX PANHANDLE...CLOSE TO OR
COLLOCATED WITH POSITION OF LEE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONFLUENCE
ZONE.

...N-CENTRAL CONUS...
SEVERAL EPISODES OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NEWD ACROSS
THIS REGION TODAY THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LEADING SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION EJECTS NEWD ACROSS NRN LOW PLAINS AND MAIN TROUGH APCHS
NRN HIGH PLAINS.  CONVECTION MAY BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO POSE
THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR HAIL/GUSTS.  ATTM...SPECIFIC FOCI
STILL APPEAR NEBULOUS OVER MOST OF THIS REGION.

HOWEVER...ONE CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED SVR POTENTIAL IS
BECOMING APPARENT OVER SERN MT...AND OTHERS MAY BECOME APPARENT
THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS AS MESOSCALE FOCI DEVELOP.  TSTMS MAY FORM
THIS AFTN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF S-CENTRAL/SERN MT AND MOVE NEWD TO
ENEWD...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SUPERCELLS.  POSTFRONTAL OUTFLOW FROM
PRIOR/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS SETTLED SWD AND SWWD ACROSS SERN
MT...AND ELEVATED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ZONE
ATOP THAT AIR MASS ATTM...OVER NERN MT.  WHILE THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN NON-SVR...MODIFIED OUTFLOW WILL REINFORCE NELY/ENELY
POST-FRONTAL GRADIENT FLOW TODAY...AIDED BY ISALLOBARIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH SLGT DEEPENING OF SFC LOW.  RESULTANT UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF NEAR-SFC WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BOTH
DIRECT/MECHANICAL LIFT ON HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADVECTION OF RICHER
MOISTURE INTO REGION FROM ND.  IN CONCERT WITH AFTN SFC
HEATING...1500-2000 J/KG MAY DEVELOP IN CORRIDOR ALIGNED WSW-ENE
ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN MT.  NELY SFC FLOW ALSO WILL ELONGATE
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS...IN SUPPORT
OF SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.

SVR THREAT WILL DIMINISH NWD FROM THIS AREA BECAUSE OF COOLER
ANTECEDENT AIR MASS AND CONTINUING CAA...WHILE FARTHER S ACROSS
WY...MIXING/DRYING WILL REDUCE SVR RISK.  CLUSTER OR SMALL MCS
EVOLVING FROM ACTIVITY IN THIS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE SWATH MAY
MAINTAIN SVR POTENTIAL AS IT MOVES INTO WRN ND THIS EVENING...BEFORE
COMBINATION OF POSTFRONTAL CAA AND DIABATIC COOLING STABILIZE
FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER TOO MUCH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SVR WIND.

ELSEWHERE...DEEP SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS
NRN PLAINS...WITH GREATER DISTANCE FROM MID/UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHT-GRADIENT ENHANCEMENTS BROUGHT ABOUT BY PROGRESSION OF
NWRN-CONUS TROUGH.  WHILE EJECTING/MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE SOME LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN SUPPORT OF TSTM POTENTIAL
TODAY...WEAKER DEEP SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY LOWER LAPSE RATES ARE FCST
COMPARED TO FARTHER W.  ONGOING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER OVER WRN
DAKOTAS ALSO MAY DELAY/PRECLUDE SUBSTANTIAL DIABATIC DESTABILIZATION
TODAY OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION.  GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND LACK OF
SHARPER SFC BOUNDARIES...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TOO LARGE TO DRAW MORE
THAN 5% UNCONDITIONAL SVR WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES ATTM.

...SERN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TODAY OVER BROAD SWATH OF SERN STATES FROM GA AND SRN APPALACHIANS
SWWD ACROSS MS DELTA REGION AND LA.  DAMAGING GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...HOWEVER THREAT APPEARS TOO UNFOCUSED ATTM TO
SPECIFY UNCONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES AOA 5%.  WEAK
LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL FLOW AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL SHEAR
INDICATE MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED...PULSE AND
MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE.  SFC HEATING AND DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S F SHOULD OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE.  ANY SVR POTENTIAL MAY DEPEND ON
LOCALIZED/UPSCALE GROWTH OF COLD POOLS FROM MERGERS OF CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS.

..EDWARDS/PICCA.. 09/05/2015





000
ACUS03 KWNS 050720
SWODY3
SPC AC 050719

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT SAT SEP 05 2015

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES WITH WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
FROM STORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN MULTIPLE
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON PEAK-HEATING PERIOD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MO VALLEY.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...
EARLY STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING BUT
THE EFFECTS OF REMNANT CLOUD COVER MAY DELAY ONSET OF STRONGER
DIABATIC HEATING OVER SOME AREAS.  AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING WILL PROMOTE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
WITH MAXIMUM MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR
STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WITH THE
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
MN...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL BE MODEST
/25-30 KT/ SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY WEAKLY ORGANIZED
MULTICELL STORMS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..WEISS.. 09/05/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 050720
SWODY3
SPC AC 050719

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT SAT SEP 05 2015

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES WITH WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
FROM STORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN MULTIPLE
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON PEAK-HEATING PERIOD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MO VALLEY.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...
EARLY STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING BUT
THE EFFECTS OF REMNANT CLOUD COVER MAY DELAY ONSET OF STRONGER
DIABATIC HEATING OVER SOME AREAS.  AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING WILL PROMOTE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
WITH MAXIMUM MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES
COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL WEAKEN THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR
STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  WITH THE
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
MN...THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL BE MODEST
/25-30 KT/ SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY WEAKLY ORGANIZED
MULTICELL STORMS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

..WEISS.. 09/05/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 050601
SWODY1
SPC AC 050559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT SEP 05 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE N
CENTRAL CONUS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL SUPPRESSION OF THE EXPANSIVE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS A LARGE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WRN
U.S. PROGRESSES NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
WITH TIME.  AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATE
IN THE PERIOD...A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO LINGER INVOF SD THROUGH THE
DAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL FACILITATE ADVANCE OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO/ACROSS
THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE LATTER STAGES OF THE
PERIOD.  ELSEWHERE...BOTH W AND E OF THIS DEVELOPING SURFACE
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL.

...N CENTRAL U.S. FROM ERN MT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
A COMPLEX CONVECTIVE EPISODE -- FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ATTM --
REMAINS LIKELY TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS
A LEAD SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE SHIFTS NNEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF THE
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVERNIGHT.  SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
APPEAR LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND
PERHAPS INTO THE DAKOTAS/NEB EARLY IN THE PERIOD...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  THIS PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER WIDESPREAD HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...THUS
POTENTIALLY LIMITING LOCATION AND DEGREE OF SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS.  WITH THAT SAID HOWEVER...MODERATE MID-LEVEL SWLYS
PROGGED ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE AFTERNOON ATOP ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL YIELD SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/POSSIBLY
ROTATING STORMS -- PRESUMING SUFFICIENT CAPE DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR
AT LEAST LOCALLY.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL EPISODES OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE REGION...WITH SOME HINTS THAT A NEWD-MOVING...ROUGHLY NW-SE
ORIENTED BAND OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE ND/MN VICINITY.  DEPENDENT UPON DEGREE OF CAPE
RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL IS APPARENT.  FARTHER W...ADVANCE OF THE MAIN WRN
TROUGH INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON MAY
SUPPORT A BAND OF POST-FRONTAL STORMS INVOF ERN MT.  AGAIN DEPENDENT
UPON DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CELL -- AIDED BY INCREASING
SWLYS AT MID LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN TROUGH.

ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW-PROBABILITY/MRGL SEVERE
RISK...AS CORRIDORS OF POTENTIALLY GREATER RISK REMAIN UNCLEAR ATTM.
LATER UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA REMAINS
POSSIBLE...AS EVOLUTION OF EARLY-PERIOD PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER
BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

..GOSS/COOK.. 09/05/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 050601
SWODY1
SPC AC 050559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT SEP 05 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE N
CENTRAL CONUS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL SUPPRESSION OF THE EXPANSIVE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS A LARGE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WRN
U.S. PROGRESSES NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
WITH TIME.  AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATE
IN THE PERIOD...A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO LINGER INVOF SD THROUGH THE
DAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL FACILITATE ADVANCE OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO/ACROSS
THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE LATTER STAGES OF THE
PERIOD.  ELSEWHERE...BOTH W AND E OF THIS DEVELOPING SURFACE
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL.

...N CENTRAL U.S. FROM ERN MT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
A COMPLEX CONVECTIVE EPISODE -- FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ATTM --
REMAINS LIKELY TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS
A LEAD SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE SHIFTS NNEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF THE
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVERNIGHT.  SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
APPEAR LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND
PERHAPS INTO THE DAKOTAS/NEB EARLY IN THE PERIOD...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  THIS PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER WIDESPREAD HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...THUS
POTENTIALLY LIMITING LOCATION AND DEGREE OF SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS.  WITH THAT SAID HOWEVER...MODERATE MID-LEVEL SWLYS
PROGGED ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE AFTERNOON ATOP ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL YIELD SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/POSSIBLY
ROTATING STORMS -- PRESUMING SUFFICIENT CAPE DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR
AT LEAST LOCALLY.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL EPISODES OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE REGION...WITH SOME HINTS THAT A NEWD-MOVING...ROUGHLY NW-SE
ORIENTED BAND OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE ND/MN VICINITY.  DEPENDENT UPON DEGREE OF CAPE
RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL IS APPARENT.  FARTHER W...ADVANCE OF THE MAIN WRN
TROUGH INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON MAY
SUPPORT A BAND OF POST-FRONTAL STORMS INVOF ERN MT.  AGAIN DEPENDENT
UPON DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CELL -- AIDED BY INCREASING
SWLYS AT MID LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN TROUGH.

ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW-PROBABILITY/MRGL SEVERE
RISK...AS CORRIDORS OF POTENTIALLY GREATER RISK REMAIN UNCLEAR ATTM.
LATER UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA REMAINS
POSSIBLE...AS EVOLUTION OF EARLY-PERIOD PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER
BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

..GOSS/COOK.. 09/05/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 050601
SWODY1
SPC AC 050559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT SEP 05 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE N
CENTRAL CONUS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL SUPPRESSION OF THE EXPANSIVE CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS A LARGE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WRN
U.S. PROGRESSES NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
WITH TIME.  AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS LATE
IN THE PERIOD...A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO LINGER INVOF SD THROUGH THE
DAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL FACILITATE ADVANCE OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO/ACROSS
THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE LATTER STAGES OF THE
PERIOD.  ELSEWHERE...BOTH W AND E OF THIS DEVELOPING SURFACE
SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL.

...N CENTRAL U.S. FROM ERN MT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
A COMPLEX CONVECTIVE EPISODE -- FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY ATTM --
REMAINS LIKELY TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS
A LEAD SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE SHIFTS NNEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF THE
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVERNIGHT.  SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
APPEAR LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND
PERHAPS INTO THE DAKOTAS/NEB EARLY IN THE PERIOD...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  THIS PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER WIDESPREAD HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...THUS
POTENTIALLY LIMITING LOCATION AND DEGREE OF SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS.  WITH THAT SAID HOWEVER...MODERATE MID-LEVEL SWLYS
PROGGED ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE AFTERNOON ATOP ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL YIELD SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/POSSIBLY
ROTATING STORMS -- PRESUMING SUFFICIENT CAPE DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR
AT LEAST LOCALLY.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERAL EPISODES OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
THE REGION...WITH SOME HINTS THAT A NEWD-MOVING...ROUGHLY NW-SE
ORIENTED BAND OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ACROSS THE ND/MN VICINITY.  DEPENDENT UPON DEGREE OF CAPE
RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL IS APPARENT.  FARTHER W...ADVANCE OF THE MAIN WRN
TROUGH INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON MAY
SUPPORT A BAND OF POST-FRONTAL STORMS INVOF ERN MT.  AGAIN DEPENDENT
UPON DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CELL -- AIDED BY INCREASING
SWLYS AT MID LEVELS IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN TROUGH.

ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW-PROBABILITY/MRGL SEVERE
RISK...AS CORRIDORS OF POTENTIALLY GREATER RISK REMAIN UNCLEAR ATTM.
LATER UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA REMAINS
POSSIBLE...AS EVOLUTION OF EARLY-PERIOD PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER
BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

..GOSS/COOK.. 09/05/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 050548
SWODY2
SPC AC 050547

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT SAT SEP 05 2015

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MN...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
MINNESOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  OTHER STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN IOWA AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA.

...SYNOPSIS...
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW
MOVES NEWD INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN...AND HEIGHTS FALL FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES/PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WRN NEB AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD/SEWD REACHING FROM WRN MN INTO ERN NEB BY
07/00Z AND CONTINUING TO WRN PARTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND WI SWWD
ACROSS CENTRAL IA INTO SWRN KS BY 07/12Z.  THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...MN AREA SWD INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA...
PRE-FRONTAL MORNING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT REGION LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EWD AND DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PERMITTING STRONGER
DIABATIC HEATING TO OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY CONVECTION.
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH MAXIMUM SURFACE
DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S.  WITH THE ERN EDGE OF A PLUME OF
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM EXTENDING TO NEAR THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN WRN MN...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.  NAM GUIDANCE
AGAIN APPEARS TO BE TOO UNSTABLE OWING TO EXCESSIVE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH 2-M DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 70S AND UNREALISTIC
FORECAST SOUNDING STRUCTURES DEPICTING SHALLOW SATURATED LAYERS WITH
NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT.

CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL SPREAD
ENEWD ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW...BUT
LIKELY LAGGING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.  NEVERTHELESS...IT APPEARS
THAT SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS MN WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED MAINLY MULTICELL/BRIEF
SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE EWD AND SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS IT SPREADS ACROSS NWRN
WI/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND POSSIBLY FAR WRN UPPER MI DURING THE LATE
EVENING.

OTHER STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD INTO ERN NEB AND WRN
IA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHIN THE AXIS OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  WINDS ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH SWD
EXTENT...SUGGESTING A MORE LIMITED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THIS AREA ALTHOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

..WEISS.. 09/05/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 050058
SWODY1
SPC AC 050056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...AND EWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  STORMS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THIS EVENING -- AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS -- ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL U.S. FROM MONTANA EAST TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  FINALLY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST STATES.

...DISCUSSION...
GRADUAL AIRMASS STABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN...NORTHERN...AND EASTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WHERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM.  THIS STABILIZATION COMBINED
WITH WEAK BACKGROUND SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE
TO FURTHER DIMINISH E OF THE MS VALLEY.

FARTHER N INTO NRN MN...A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS ATTM.  AS SUCH...A LOCALLY
DAMAGING GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL EVENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS -- BUT RISK APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED TO
REMOVE MRGL RISK FROM THIS AREA.

FINALLY...STORMS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS NERN WY MAY PERSIST/INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS AN ESELY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER
THIS REGION.  ANY SEVERE RISK HOWEVER APPEARS MINIMAL --
INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT PROBABILITY INCLUSION.

..GOSS.. 09/05/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 050058
SWODY1
SPC AC 050056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...AND EWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  STORMS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THIS EVENING -- AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS -- ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL U.S. FROM MONTANA EAST TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  FINALLY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST STATES.

...DISCUSSION...
GRADUAL AIRMASS STABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN...NORTHERN...AND EASTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WHERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM.  THIS STABILIZATION COMBINED
WITH WEAK BACKGROUND SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE
TO FURTHER DIMINISH E OF THE MS VALLEY.

FARTHER N INTO NRN MN...A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS ATTM.  AS SUCH...A LOCALLY
DAMAGING GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL EVENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS -- BUT RISK APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED TO
REMOVE MRGL RISK FROM THIS AREA.

FINALLY...STORMS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS NERN WY MAY PERSIST/INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS AN ESELY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER
THIS REGION.  ANY SEVERE RISK HOWEVER APPEARS MINIMAL --
INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT PROBABILITY INCLUSION.

..GOSS.. 09/05/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 050058
SWODY1
SPC AC 050056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...AND EWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  STORMS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THIS EVENING -- AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS -- ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL U.S. FROM MONTANA EAST TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  FINALLY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST STATES.

...DISCUSSION...
GRADUAL AIRMASS STABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WESTERN...NORTHERN...AND EASTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WHERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM.  THIS STABILIZATION COMBINED
WITH WEAK BACKGROUND SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE
TO FURTHER DIMINISH E OF THE MS VALLEY.

FARTHER N INTO NRN MN...A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS ATTM.  AS SUCH...A LOCALLY
DAMAGING GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL EVENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS -- BUT RISK APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED TO
REMOVE MRGL RISK FROM THIS AREA.

FINALLY...STORMS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS NERN WY MAY PERSIST/INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS AN ESELY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER
THIS REGION.  ANY SEVERE RISK HOWEVER APPEARS MINIMAL --
INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT PROBABILITY INCLUSION.

..GOSS.. 09/05/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 041953
SWODY1
SPC AC 041951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OH
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN ND INTO NWRN MN...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE
CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL PERSIST
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA...VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS.

PRIMARY CHANGE TO THIS OUTLOOK HAS BEEN TO INCLUDE A MARGINAL RISK
AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS AND A SMALL PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY.

STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE OH VALLEY ALONG A CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW CIRCULATION.
STRONG DIABATIC WARMING HAS PROMOTED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN A
WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

NUMEROUS PULSE STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER VA AND THE CAROLINAS
WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL INTO EARLY EVENING.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF VORT MAX
OVER NERN ND INTO NWRN MN WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL.. 09/04/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015/

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD.  THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION LIMITING DESTABILIZATION.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND
SEVERAL CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSIENT STRONG
STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OR A BRIEF
TORNADO.  HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS
MARGINAL.






000
ACUS02 KWNS 041732
SWODY2
SPC AC 041730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE
NRN ROCKIES SATURDAY AND APPROACH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AREA DURING DAY. AT THE SFC
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NWRN MN SWWD TO A SFC LOW
OVER NWRN SD THEN WWD TO A WEAK SFC LOW OVER SRN MT EARLY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH SSWWD FROM THIS LOW THROUGH ERN ID INTO
NEV. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

...NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...

AN AXIS OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/ WILL
RESIDE IN VICINITY OF E-W FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND EWD INTO MN
BENEATH PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN PERIOD OVER THE DAKOTAS WHERE DEEPER
FORCING ATTENDING THE NEWD ADVANCING...LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL AUGMENT ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD POSE SOME THREAT FOR HAIL. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND NRN MN DURING THE DAY.
ONE CONCERN IS HOW MUCH BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR
GIVEN EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND EARLY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WHERE SUFFICIENT HEATING DOES OCCUR POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR MODERATE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...AND A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FARTHER WEST...AN AXIS OF RICHER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO ERN MT
WHERE ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESIDE NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOW CLOUDS AND THIS AREA COULD
REMAIN CAPPED TO SFC BASED STORMS MOST OF THE DAY. STORMS ARE MOST
LIKELY IN THIS AREA SATURDAY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WHEN DEEPER FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH
AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CONDITIONAL UPON SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION.

WHILE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IS POSSIBLE IN LATER OUTLOOKS OVER A
PORTION OF THE MARGINAL RISK AREA...WILL MAINTAIN THE MARGINAL
CATEGORY THIS UPDATE DUE TO COMPLICATING ISSUES RELATED TO THE
TIMING OF THE LEAD WAVE...ONSET OF EARLY CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS.

..DIAL.. 09/04/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 041732
SWODY2
SPC AC 041730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE
NRN ROCKIES SATURDAY AND APPROACH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AREA DURING DAY. AT THE SFC
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NWRN MN SWWD TO A SFC LOW
OVER NWRN SD THEN WWD TO A WEAK SFC LOW OVER SRN MT EARLY SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH SSWWD FROM THIS LOW THROUGH ERN ID INTO
NEV. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

...NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...

AN AXIS OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/ WILL
RESIDE IN VICINITY OF E-W FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND EWD INTO MN
BENEATH PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN PERIOD OVER THE DAKOTAS WHERE DEEPER
FORCING ATTENDING THE NEWD ADVANCING...LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL AUGMENT ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD POSE SOME THREAT FOR HAIL. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND NRN MN DURING THE DAY.
ONE CONCERN IS HOW MUCH BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR
GIVEN EXPECTATION OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND EARLY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WHERE SUFFICIENT HEATING DOES OCCUR POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR MODERATE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY...AND A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FARTHER WEST...AN AXIS OF RICHER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO ERN MT
WHERE ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESIDE NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOW CLOUDS AND THIS AREA COULD
REMAIN CAPPED TO SFC BASED STORMS MOST OF THE DAY. STORMS ARE MOST
LIKELY IN THIS AREA SATURDAY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WHEN DEEPER FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH
AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CONDITIONAL UPON SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION.

WHILE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IS POSSIBLE IN LATER OUTLOOKS OVER A
PORTION OF THE MARGINAL RISK AREA...WILL MAINTAIN THE MARGINAL
CATEGORY THIS UPDATE DUE TO COMPLICATING ISSUES RELATED TO THE
TIMING OF THE LEAD WAVE...ONSET OF EARLY CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS.

..DIAL.. 09/04/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 041622
SWODY1
SPC AC 041621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ND/MN...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND PARTS OF MINNESOTA TODAY.

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD.  THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION LIMITING DESTABILIZATION.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND
SEVERAL CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSIENT STRONG
STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OR A BRIEF
TORNADO.  HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS
MARGINAL.

..HART/LEITMAN.. 09/04/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 041622
SWODY1
SPC AC 041621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ND/MN...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND PARTS OF MINNESOTA TODAY.

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD.  THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION LIMITING DESTABILIZATION.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND
SEVERAL CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSIENT STRONG
STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OR A BRIEF
TORNADO.  HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS
MARGINAL.

..HART/LEITMAN.. 09/04/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 041622
SWODY1
SPC AC 041621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ND/MN...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND PARTS OF MINNESOTA TODAY.

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD.  THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION LIMITING DESTABILIZATION.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND
SEVERAL CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSIENT STRONG
STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OR A BRIEF
TORNADO.  HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS
MARGINAL.

..HART/LEITMAN.. 09/04/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 041622
SWODY1
SPC AC 041621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ND/MN...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND PARTS OF MINNESOTA TODAY.

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD.  THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION LIMITING DESTABILIZATION.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND
SEVERAL CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSIENT STRONG
STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OR A BRIEF
TORNADO.  HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS
MARGINAL.

..HART/LEITMAN.. 09/04/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 041258
SWODY1
SPC AC 041256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN DAKOTAS AND
WRN/NRN MN...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND PARTS OF MINNESOTA TODAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST IN MID/UPPER
LEVELS...WITH MEAN TROUGHING OVER WRN STATES AND RIDGING FROM TX TO
HUDSON BAY.  EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT RIDGE...QUASISTATIONARY 500-MB LOW
OVER LOWER MI SHOULD DRIFT ERRATICALLY NEAR ITS PRESENT POSITION
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...WHILE GRADUALLY FILLING/WEAKENING INTO
OPEN-WAVE TROUGH.  MEANWHILE...BROAD CYCLONE OVER SRN BC AND PAC NW
SHOULD CONSOLIDATE AROUND VORTICITY MAXIMA NOW LOCATED NEAR WA AND
SWRN ORE COASTS...RESULTING IN LOW PIVOTING CYCLONICALLY ACROSS ORE
FROM W-E DURING 00Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND TROUGH SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD
OVER CENTRAL/NRN CA.  SWLY FLOW FETCH E OF THAT TROUGH...FROM NWRN
MEX ACROSS SRN ROCKIES TO NRN PLAINS...WILL HOST 3 PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS PERTINENT TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...
1.  TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN PORTIONS
SD/NEB...FCST TO EJECT NEWD TO ERN ND/NWRN MN AREA BY 00Z THEN
WRN-MOST AREAS OF NWRN ONT BY 12Z.
2.  VERY WEAK RIPPLE NOW OVER SONORA...WHICH SHOULD AMPLIFY AS IT
MOVES NEWD OVER CO ROCKIES AROUND 00Z THEN REACH WRN SD AROUND 12Z.

3.  VORTICITY FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH ERN PAC TS KEVIN.  PER NHC
DISCUSSIONS...MID/UPPER-LEVEL REPRESENTATION OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD
SEPARATE FROM ITS LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND MOVE NEWD.  SOME ASSOCIATED
500-MB VORTICITY MAY REACH SRN/ERN AZ LATE TONIGHT ACCORDING TO
SYNOPTIC PROGS SUCH AS SPECTRAL/NAM.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL/SWRN SD WITH
TROUGH SWD ACROSS WRN KS THEN SSWWD OVER ERN NM.  COLD FRONT WAS
DRAWN SEPARATELY FROM THAT LOW...FROM N-CENTRAL/NERN ND SWWD OVER
EXTREME SERN MT TO S-CENTRAL WY.  COLD FRONT SHOULD BECOME
QUASISTATIONARY TODAY...LIKELY REMAINING SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM SFC
LOW THAT ITSELF WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL/WRN SD.  WAVY FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDS FROM NWRN/SERN MN ACROSS NRN PORTIONS IL/INDIANA TO WEAK LOW
OVER S-CENTRAL LOWER MI.  THAT LOW SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER AS
SUPPORTIVE MID/UPPER PERTURBATION BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE...LEADING TO
WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW/CONVERGENCE THAN YESTERDAY.  WHILE SCATTERED
TSTMS MAY FORM OVER LOWER MI/OH/INDIANA/IL REGION...POTENTIAL FOR
SVR/50-KT GUSTS APPEARS TOO WEAK TO ASSIGN UNCONDITIONAL SVR
PROBABILITIES.

...UPPER MIDWEST/NERN PLAINS...
CONVECTIVE FCST ACROSS THIS REGION IS COMPLICATED BY PRESENCE OF
EXTENSIVE/ONGOING PRECIP PLUME...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED
TSTMS...FROM ERN NEB ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO WRN ND.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING IN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO
LFC....CONSIDERABLY JUXTAPOSED WITH DCVA PRECEDING LEADING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE.  ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESTRICT
PACE/INTENSITY OF DIABATIC HEATING DOWNSHEAR ACROSS OUTLOOK
AREA...COMBINING WITH LACK OF WELL-FOCUSED SFC BOUNDARIES AHEAD OF
CONVECTIVE PLUME TO CAST DOUBT UPON LIFT IN WARM SECTOR.  ADDITIONAL
TSTMS MAY FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF LEADING EDGE OF THIS PRECIP
PLUME...MOVING OVER DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH UPPER-60S TO
LOW-70S F SFC DEW POINTS SUPPORTING MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG...LOCALLY
HIGHER.  COMBINATION OF MUTED INSOLATION AND RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/THETAE ALREADY IN PLACE SHOULD RESULT IN REDUCTION OF
MLCINH SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS BY
EARLY AFTN.  HOWEVER...HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON 12Z RAOBS SUGGEST
CONSIDERABLE LARGE-SCALE COOLING AND/OR BOUNDARY-RELATED LIFT WILL
BE NEEDED NEAR BASE OF EML FOR WIDESPREAD SFC-BASED TSTMS.

KINEMATICALLY...SUBTLE INCREASE IN DEEP SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR WITH APCH
OF LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE-SHEAR
MAGNITUDES 30-40 KT.  ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WIND PROFILES IN FCST
SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SOME SPEED WEAKNESSES AND ERRATIC DIRECTIONAL
SHIFTS...LOW-LEVEL VEERING/STRENGTHENING  WITH HEIGHT IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO HODOGRAPHS SUITABLE FOR AT LEAST
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

...CENTRAL MT TO WRN ND OVERNIGHT...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
00Z...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z...WITH CONDITIONAL HAIL RISK.  ATTM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY CONCERNS OFFER ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO HOLD OFF
UNCONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES FOR NOW...BUT SOME MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED AS MESOSCALE FOCI BECOME BETTER-DEFINED AND IF SHORTER-FUSED
MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS THAT WAY.  ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD DEVELOP ON
ELEVATED FRONTAL SLOPE W OF SFC BOUNDARY...AND WITHIN WRN LIMB OF
LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ZONE CHARACTERIZED BY ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO LFC.  UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS NEBULOUS WITH BIG PAC NW
CYCLONE REMAINING WELL-REMOVED...AND AFOREMENTIONED TRAIN OF
LOWER-AMPLITUDE/SW-FLOW PERTURBATIONS ON TRACKS S THROUGH E OF THIS
AREA.

..EDWARDS/PICCA.. 09/04/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 041258
SWODY1
SPC AC 041256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN DAKOTAS AND
WRN/NRN MN...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND PARTS OF MINNESOTA TODAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST IN MID/UPPER
LEVELS...WITH MEAN TROUGHING OVER WRN STATES AND RIDGING FROM TX TO
HUDSON BAY.  EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT RIDGE...QUASISTATIONARY 500-MB LOW
OVER LOWER MI SHOULD DRIFT ERRATICALLY NEAR ITS PRESENT POSITION
THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD...WHILE GRADUALLY FILLING/WEAKENING INTO
OPEN-WAVE TROUGH.  MEANWHILE...BROAD CYCLONE OVER SRN BC AND PAC NW
SHOULD CONSOLIDATE AROUND VORTICITY MAXIMA NOW LOCATED NEAR WA AND
SWRN ORE COASTS...RESULTING IN LOW PIVOTING CYCLONICALLY ACROSS ORE
FROM W-E DURING 00Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND TROUGH SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD
OVER CENTRAL/NRN CA.  SWLY FLOW FETCH E OF THAT TROUGH...FROM NWRN
MEX ACROSS SRN ROCKIES TO NRN PLAINS...WILL HOST 3 PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS PERTINENT TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...
1.  TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN PORTIONS
SD/NEB...FCST TO EJECT NEWD TO ERN ND/NWRN MN AREA BY 00Z THEN
WRN-MOST AREAS OF NWRN ONT BY 12Z.
2.  VERY WEAK RIPPLE NOW OVER SONORA...WHICH SHOULD AMPLIFY AS IT
MOVES NEWD OVER CO ROCKIES AROUND 00Z THEN REACH WRN SD AROUND 12Z.

3.  VORTICITY FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH ERN PAC TS KEVIN.  PER NHC
DISCUSSIONS...MID/UPPER-LEVEL REPRESENTATION OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD
SEPARATE FROM ITS LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND MOVE NEWD.  SOME ASSOCIATED
500-MB VORTICITY MAY REACH SRN/ERN AZ LATE TONIGHT ACCORDING TO
SYNOPTIC PROGS SUCH AS SPECTRAL/NAM.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL/SWRN SD WITH
TROUGH SWD ACROSS WRN KS THEN SSWWD OVER ERN NM.  COLD FRONT WAS
DRAWN SEPARATELY FROM THAT LOW...FROM N-CENTRAL/NERN ND SWWD OVER
EXTREME SERN MT TO S-CENTRAL WY.  COLD FRONT SHOULD BECOME
QUASISTATIONARY TODAY...LIKELY REMAINING SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM SFC
LOW THAT ITSELF WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL/WRN SD.  WAVY FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDS FROM NWRN/SERN MN ACROSS NRN PORTIONS IL/INDIANA TO WEAK LOW
OVER S-CENTRAL LOWER MI.  THAT LOW SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER AS
SUPPORTIVE MID/UPPER PERTURBATION BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE...LEADING TO
WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW/CONVERGENCE THAN YESTERDAY.  WHILE SCATTERED
TSTMS MAY FORM OVER LOWER MI/OH/INDIANA/IL REGION...POTENTIAL FOR
SVR/50-KT GUSTS APPEARS TOO WEAK TO ASSIGN UNCONDITIONAL SVR
PROBABILITIES.

...UPPER MIDWEST/NERN PLAINS...
CONVECTIVE FCST ACROSS THIS REGION IS COMPLICATED BY PRESENCE OF
EXTENSIVE/ONGOING PRECIP PLUME...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED EMBEDDED
TSTMS...FROM ERN NEB ACROSS CENTRAL SD TO WRN ND.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING IN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO
LFC....CONSIDERABLY JUXTAPOSED WITH DCVA PRECEDING LEADING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE.  ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESTRICT
PACE/INTENSITY OF DIABATIC HEATING DOWNSHEAR ACROSS OUTLOOK
AREA...COMBINING WITH LACK OF WELL-FOCUSED SFC BOUNDARIES AHEAD OF
CONVECTIVE PLUME TO CAST DOUBT UPON LIFT IN WARM SECTOR.  ADDITIONAL
TSTMS MAY FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF LEADING EDGE OF THIS PRECIP
PLUME...MOVING OVER DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH UPPER-60S TO
LOW-70S F SFC DEW POINTS SUPPORTING MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG...LOCALLY
HIGHER.  COMBINATION OF MUTED INSOLATION AND RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/THETAE ALREADY IN PLACE SHOULD RESULT IN REDUCTION OF
MLCINH SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS BY
EARLY AFTN.  HOWEVER...HIGH CONVECTIVE TEMPS ON 12Z RAOBS SUGGEST
CONSIDERABLE LARGE-SCALE COOLING AND/OR BOUNDARY-RELATED LIFT WILL
BE NEEDED NEAR BASE OF EML FOR WIDESPREAD SFC-BASED TSTMS.

KINEMATICALLY...SUBTLE INCREASE IN DEEP SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR WITH APCH
OF LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE-SHEAR
MAGNITUDES 30-40 KT.  ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL WIND PROFILES IN FCST
SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT SOME SPEED WEAKNESSES AND ERRATIC DIRECTIONAL
SHIFTS...LOW-LEVEL VEERING/STRENGTHENING  WITH HEIGHT IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO HODOGRAPHS SUITABLE FOR AT LEAST
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

...CENTRAL MT TO WRN ND OVERNIGHT...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AFTER
00Z...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z...WITH CONDITIONAL HAIL RISK.  ATTM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY CONCERNS OFFER ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO HOLD OFF
UNCONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES FOR NOW...BUT SOME MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED AS MESOSCALE FOCI BECOME BETTER-DEFINED AND IF SHORTER-FUSED
MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS THAT WAY.  ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD DEVELOP ON
ELEVATED FRONTAL SLOPE W OF SFC BOUNDARY...AND WITHIN WRN LIMB OF
LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ZONE CHARACTERIZED BY ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO LFC.  UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS NEBULOUS WITH BIG PAC NW
CYCLONE REMAINING WELL-REMOVED...AND AFOREMENTIONED TRAIN OF
LOWER-AMPLITUDE/SW-FLOW PERTURBATIONS ON TRACKS S THROUGH E OF THIS
AREA.

..EDWARDS/PICCA.. 09/04/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 040713
SWODY3
SPC AC 040711

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

NRN ROCKIES TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
EARLY IN THE DAY3 PERIOD AS 65KT 500MB SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS WY
INTO CNTRL ND BY 07/00Z.  HIGH PLAINS SFC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS
THE WRN DAKOTAS TO A POSITION NEAR THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  WHILE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS ND AT DAYBREAK
SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT FROM ERN NEBRASKA...NWD INTO NRN MN.
ALTHOUGH STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LAG THE COLD FRONT
SOMEWHAT...IT APPEARS ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.  NAM IS
CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST/BUOYANT THAN GFS...ROUGHLY DOUBLE...WITH
SUBSTANTIAL SBCAPE...IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...ACROSS THE MRGL RISK
AREA.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION...AND
STRONGEST SHEAR/FORCING SOMEWHAT LAGGING THE SFC FRONT...WILL ONLY
INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR HAIL/WIND WITH TSTMS
THAT DEVELOP.

..DARROW.. 09/04/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 040556
SWODY1
SPC AC 040554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SEASONABLY STRONG/SLIGHTLY AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE LITTLE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AN IMPULSE
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

...PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA...
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. DESPITE MORNING
CLOUDS/SCATTERED STORMS...DIURNAL HEATING AND A PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF MODERATE-STRONG
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA. LOW-MID LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
IMPULSE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /35-40 KTS/ ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MOVE
NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. WITH ADEQUATE DEEP SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE DISCRETE STORMS. STORMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP INTO CLUSTERS WITH
TIME POSING A CONTINUED SEVERE RISK MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING
WINDS.

...EASTERN MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...
SOME SIGNAL EXISTS IN LATEST GUIDANCE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS IN THE 06Z-12Z SAT TIME FRAME OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION AND
AN APPROACHING IMPULSE WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONSIDERED A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
MARGINAL/5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES...HOWEVER WITH QUESTIONS ON
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY/THUNDERSTORM
INTENSITY...OPTED TO DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS IN THIS AREA.

..BUNTING/COOK.. 09/04/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 040556
SWODY1
SPC AC 040554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SEASONABLY STRONG/SLIGHTLY AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE LITTLE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AN IMPULSE
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

...PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA...
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. DESPITE MORNING
CLOUDS/SCATTERED STORMS...DIURNAL HEATING AND A PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF MODERATE-STRONG
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA. LOW-MID LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
IMPULSE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /35-40 KTS/ ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MOVE
NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. WITH ADEQUATE DEEP SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE DISCRETE STORMS. STORMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP INTO CLUSTERS WITH
TIME POSING A CONTINUED SEVERE RISK MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING
WINDS.

...EASTERN MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...
SOME SIGNAL EXISTS IN LATEST GUIDANCE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS IN THE 06Z-12Z SAT TIME FRAME OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION AND
AN APPROACHING IMPULSE WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONSIDERED A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
MARGINAL/5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES...HOWEVER WITH QUESTIONS ON
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY/THUNDERSTORM
INTENSITY...OPTED TO DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS IN THIS AREA.

..BUNTING/COOK.. 09/04/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 040556
SWODY1
SPC AC 040554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SEASONABLY STRONG/SLIGHTLY AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE LITTLE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AN IMPULSE
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

...PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA...
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. DESPITE MORNING
CLOUDS/SCATTERED STORMS...DIURNAL HEATING AND A PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF MODERATE-STRONG
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA. LOW-MID LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
IMPULSE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /35-40 KTS/ ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MOVE
NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. WITH ADEQUATE DEEP SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE DISCRETE STORMS. STORMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP INTO CLUSTERS WITH
TIME POSING A CONTINUED SEVERE RISK MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING
WINDS.

...EASTERN MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...
SOME SIGNAL EXISTS IN LATEST GUIDANCE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS IN THE 06Z-12Z SAT TIME FRAME OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION AND
AN APPROACHING IMPULSE WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONSIDERED A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
MARGINAL/5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES...HOWEVER WITH QUESTIONS ON
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY/THUNDERSTORM
INTENSITY...OPTED TO DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS IN THIS AREA.

..BUNTING/COOK.. 09/04/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 040556
SWODY1
SPC AC 040554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SEASONABLY STRONG/SLIGHTLY AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE LITTLE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AN IMPULSE
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EXTEND FROM NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

...PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA...
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. DESPITE MORNING
CLOUDS/SCATTERED STORMS...DIURNAL HEATING AND A PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF MODERATE-STRONG
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA. LOW-MID LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
IMPULSE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /35-40 KTS/ ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MOVE
NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. WITH ADEQUATE DEEP SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE DISCRETE STORMS. STORMS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP INTO CLUSTERS WITH
TIME POSING A CONTINUED SEVERE RISK MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING
WINDS.

...EASTERN MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...
SOME SIGNAL EXISTS IN LATEST GUIDANCE REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS IN THE 06Z-12Z SAT TIME FRAME OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION AND
AN APPROACHING IMPULSE WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONSIDERED A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE
MARGINAL/5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES...HOWEVER WITH QUESTIONS ON
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY/THUNDERSTORM
INTENSITY...OPTED TO DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS IN THIS AREA.

..BUNTING/COOK.. 09/04/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 040514
SWODY2
SPC AC 040513

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER
MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY2 PERIOD AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE NWRN PORTIONS OF
THE CONUS.  IN RESPONSE TO NWRN U.S. TROUGH...WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL EJECT FROM NRN MEXICO...NNEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
BLACK HILLS REGION BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THEN NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVER NWRN MN BY EARLY EVENING.  THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO FOCUS LLJ OVER THE ERN PLAINS OF SD/NEBRASKA BY 06/00Z
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAXIMIZED OVER THE UPPER RED RIVER
REGION ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY.  LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD AID ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AND NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE
OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF SHORT WAVE.  WHILE FORECAST SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...VEERING WIND WITH HEIGHT AND MODEST 500MB FLOW SUGGEST A
FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION.  WIND/HAIL
ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE...STRONG MID-LEVEL
SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY BY 06/00Z.  WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES BY EARLY EVENING AND SHARPEN A
FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER.  ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
FROM THE ABSAROKA RANGE INTO THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS...THEN SPREAD
NEWD WITHIN A FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SERN MT ARE STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH NELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW AND SWLY 500MB FLOW
ON THE ORDER OF 40KT.  HOWEVER...GREATEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION AFTER DARK AND MORE
CONCENTRATED CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY MATERIALIZE WITHIN A
LESS-BUOYANT REGIME DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  EVEN
SO...SEVERE PROBS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG TROUGH EJECTING INTO
MT/WY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 09/04/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 040514
SWODY2
SPC AC 040513

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER
MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY2 PERIOD AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE NWRN PORTIONS OF
THE CONUS.  IN RESPONSE TO NWRN U.S. TROUGH...WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL EJECT FROM NRN MEXICO...NNEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
BLACK HILLS REGION BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THEN NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVER NWRN MN BY EARLY EVENING.  THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO FOCUS LLJ OVER THE ERN PLAINS OF SD/NEBRASKA BY 06/00Z
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAXIMIZED OVER THE UPPER RED RIVER
REGION ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY.  LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD AID ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AND NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE
OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF SHORT WAVE.  WHILE FORECAST SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...VEERING WIND WITH HEIGHT AND MODEST 500MB FLOW SUGGEST A
FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION.  WIND/HAIL
ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE...STRONG MID-LEVEL
SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY BY 06/00Z.  WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES BY EARLY EVENING AND SHARPEN A
FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER.  ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
FROM THE ABSAROKA RANGE INTO THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS...THEN SPREAD
NEWD WITHIN A FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SERN MT ARE STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH NELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW AND SWLY 500MB FLOW
ON THE ORDER OF 40KT.  HOWEVER...GREATEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION AFTER DARK AND MORE
CONCENTRATED CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY MATERIALIZE WITHIN A
LESS-BUOYANT REGIME DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  EVEN
SO...SEVERE PROBS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG TROUGH EJECTING INTO
MT/WY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 09/04/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 040514
SWODY2
SPC AC 040513

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER
MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY2 PERIOD AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE NWRN PORTIONS OF
THE CONUS.  IN RESPONSE TO NWRN U.S. TROUGH...WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL EJECT FROM NRN MEXICO...NNEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
BLACK HILLS REGION BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THEN NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVER NWRN MN BY EARLY EVENING.  THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO FOCUS LLJ OVER THE ERN PLAINS OF SD/NEBRASKA BY 06/00Z
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAXIMIZED OVER THE UPPER RED RIVER
REGION ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARY.  LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD AID ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AND NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE
OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF SHORT WAVE.  WHILE FORECAST SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...VEERING WIND WITH HEIGHT AND MODEST 500MB FLOW SUGGEST A
FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION.  WIND/HAIL
ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE...STRONG MID-LEVEL
SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY BY 06/00Z.  WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES BY EARLY EVENING AND SHARPEN A
FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER.  ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
FROM THE ABSAROKA RANGE INTO THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS...THEN SPREAD
NEWD WITHIN A FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SERN MT ARE STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH NELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW AND SWLY 500MB FLOW
ON THE ORDER OF 40KT.  HOWEVER...GREATEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION AFTER DARK AND MORE
CONCENTRATED CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY MATERIALIZE WITHIN A
LESS-BUOYANT REGIME DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  EVEN
SO...SEVERE PROBS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS STRONG TROUGH EJECTING INTO
MT/WY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 09/04/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 040055
SWODY1
SPC AC 040053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST FROM SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS
OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW/CLOUDS HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
AN ISOLATED STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
EXTREME SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...SOUTH
OF THE CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IN THE PRESENCE
OF WEAK-MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

FARTHER WEST ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
NEAR THE WISCONSIN-ILLINOIS BORDER. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS A LOBE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS A
MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

...SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/COOLER AIR OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING...WHERE STRONG HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. RISK APPEARS GREATEST FROM
MARICOPA COUNTY SOUTHWARD OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF PINAL/PIMA
COUNTIES.

..BUNTING.. 09/04/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 040055
SWODY1
SPC AC 040053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST FROM SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS
OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW/CLOUDS HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
AN ISOLATED STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
EXTREME SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...SOUTH
OF THE CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IN THE PRESENCE
OF WEAK-MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

FARTHER WEST ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
NEAR THE WISCONSIN-ILLINOIS BORDER. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS A LOBE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS A
MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

...SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/COOLER AIR OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING...WHERE STRONG HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. RISK APPEARS GREATEST FROM
MARICOPA COUNTY SOUTHWARD OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF PINAL/PIMA
COUNTIES.

..BUNTING.. 09/04/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 040055
SWODY1
SPC AC 040053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST FROM SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS
OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW/CLOUDS HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
AN ISOLATED STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
EXTREME SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...SOUTH
OF THE CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IN THE PRESENCE
OF WEAK-MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

FARTHER WEST ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
NEAR THE WISCONSIN-ILLINOIS BORDER. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS A LOBE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS A
MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

...SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/COOLER AIR OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING...WHERE STRONG HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. RISK APPEARS GREATEST FROM
MARICOPA COUNTY SOUTHWARD OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF PINAL/PIMA
COUNTIES.

..BUNTING.. 09/04/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 040055
SWODY1
SPC AC 040053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WEST FROM SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS
OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW/CLOUDS HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
AN ISOLATED STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
EXTREME SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING...SOUTH
OF THE CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IN THE PRESENCE
OF WEAK-MODERATE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

FARTHER WEST ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
NEAR THE WISCONSIN-ILLINOIS BORDER. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS A LOBE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS A
MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

...SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER/COOLER AIR OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING...WHERE STRONG HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. RISK APPEARS GREATEST FROM
MARICOPA COUNTY SOUTHWARD OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF PINAL/PIMA
COUNTIES.

..BUNTING.. 09/04/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 031954
SWODY1
SPC AC 031953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

...DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE...

THE MRGL HAS BEEN SHIFTED SWD/SWWD TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING TRENDS IN
DESTABILIZATION S OF CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIR FROM CNTRL TO SERN
LOWER MI. THE AIR MASS S OF A RELATED BOUNDARY IS BECOMING
MARGINALLY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
AMIDST UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP/INTENSIFY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ON THE SWRN RIM OF A MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE CROSSING LOWER MI...OFFERING ISOLATED SVR-WIND POTENTIAL.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP WWD INTO NRN INDIANA/NERN IL WHERE
THE LAKE-BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY OFFER SUFFICIENT ASCENT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AMIDST 2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.

OTHERWISE...STRONG-TSTM POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN S-CNTRL AZ...PORTIONS OF THE SERN CONUS...AND
PORTIONS OF THE NERN CONUS...THOUGH THE SVR RISK SHOULD REMAIN TOO
LIMITED IN COVERAGE IN EACH CASE FOR MRGL DELINEATION.

..COHEN.. 09/03/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS CONSISTS OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE PAC NW AND A RIDGE FROM TX TO ONTARIO.  SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
TROUGHS ARE TRANSLATING AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER
LOWER MI AND AL...AND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM THE NRN
GULF OF CA TO SRN AZ AND FROM SW CO TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.

...S/SE LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWER MI TROUGH WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...MAINTAINED BY
SURFACE HEATING AND THE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY NOTED IN THE 12Z DTX
SOUNDING.  MODEST ENHANCEMENT OF MIDLEVEL WLY/NWLY FLOW WITH THE
TROUGH...MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG...AND DCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS WITH THE CONVECTION
ACROSS S/SE LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON.

...S CENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK MID-UPPER SPEED MAX IS MOVING
NNEWD FROM THE NRN GULF OF CA TOWARD SRN AZ.  AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOLER.  THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS S CENTRAL
AZ...JUST W OF THE THICKER CLOUDS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER.  AS OF NOW...IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT LOW DAMAGING WIND
PROBABILITIES ARE NECESSARY...BUT THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED IN
LATER UPDATES.

...SRN MAINE/NH THIS AFTERNOON...
A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION FORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVES SEWD
TOWARD THE COAST.  THE 12Z GYX SOUNDING SUPPORTS MODERATE BUOYANCY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE OVERALL RISK APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO ADD
DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 031954
SWODY1
SPC AC 031953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

...DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE...

THE MRGL HAS BEEN SHIFTED SWD/SWWD TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING TRENDS IN
DESTABILIZATION S OF CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIR FROM CNTRL TO SERN
LOWER MI. THE AIR MASS S OF A RELATED BOUNDARY IS BECOMING
MARGINALLY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
AMIDST UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP/INTENSIFY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ON THE SWRN RIM OF A MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE CROSSING LOWER MI...OFFERING ISOLATED SVR-WIND POTENTIAL.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP WWD INTO NRN INDIANA/NERN IL WHERE
THE LAKE-BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY OFFER SUFFICIENT ASCENT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AMIDST 2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.

OTHERWISE...STRONG-TSTM POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN S-CNTRL AZ...PORTIONS OF THE SERN CONUS...AND
PORTIONS OF THE NERN CONUS...THOUGH THE SVR RISK SHOULD REMAIN TOO
LIMITED IN COVERAGE IN EACH CASE FOR MRGL DELINEATION.

..COHEN.. 09/03/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS CONSISTS OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE PAC NW AND A RIDGE FROM TX TO ONTARIO.  SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
TROUGHS ARE TRANSLATING AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER
LOWER MI AND AL...AND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM THE NRN
GULF OF CA TO SRN AZ AND FROM SW CO TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.

...S/SE LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWER MI TROUGH WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...MAINTAINED BY
SURFACE HEATING AND THE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY NOTED IN THE 12Z DTX
SOUNDING.  MODEST ENHANCEMENT OF MIDLEVEL WLY/NWLY FLOW WITH THE
TROUGH...MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG...AND DCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS WITH THE CONVECTION
ACROSS S/SE LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON.

...S CENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK MID-UPPER SPEED MAX IS MOVING
NNEWD FROM THE NRN GULF OF CA TOWARD SRN AZ.  AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOLER.  THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS S CENTRAL
AZ...JUST W OF THE THICKER CLOUDS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER.  AS OF NOW...IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT LOW DAMAGING WIND
PROBABILITIES ARE NECESSARY...BUT THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED IN
LATER UPDATES.

...SRN MAINE/NH THIS AFTERNOON...
A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION FORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVES SEWD
TOWARD THE COAST.  THE 12Z GYX SOUNDING SUPPORTS MODERATE BUOYANCY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE OVERALL RISK APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO ADD
DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 031954
SWODY1
SPC AC 031953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

...DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE...

THE MRGL HAS BEEN SHIFTED SWD/SWWD TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING TRENDS IN
DESTABILIZATION S OF CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIR FROM CNTRL TO SERN
LOWER MI. THE AIR MASS S OF A RELATED BOUNDARY IS BECOMING
MARGINALLY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
AMIDST UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP/INTENSIFY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ON THE SWRN RIM OF A MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE CROSSING LOWER MI...OFFERING ISOLATED SVR-WIND POTENTIAL.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP WWD INTO NRN INDIANA/NERN IL WHERE
THE LAKE-BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY OFFER SUFFICIENT ASCENT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AMIDST 2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.

OTHERWISE...STRONG-TSTM POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN S-CNTRL AZ...PORTIONS OF THE SERN CONUS...AND
PORTIONS OF THE NERN CONUS...THOUGH THE SVR RISK SHOULD REMAIN TOO
LIMITED IN COVERAGE IN EACH CASE FOR MRGL DELINEATION.

..COHEN.. 09/03/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS CONSISTS OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE PAC NW AND A RIDGE FROM TX TO ONTARIO.  SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
TROUGHS ARE TRANSLATING AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER
LOWER MI AND AL...AND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM THE NRN
GULF OF CA TO SRN AZ AND FROM SW CO TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.

...S/SE LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWER MI TROUGH WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...MAINTAINED BY
SURFACE HEATING AND THE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY NOTED IN THE 12Z DTX
SOUNDING.  MODEST ENHANCEMENT OF MIDLEVEL WLY/NWLY FLOW WITH THE
TROUGH...MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG...AND DCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS WITH THE CONVECTION
ACROSS S/SE LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON.

...S CENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK MID-UPPER SPEED MAX IS MOVING
NNEWD FROM THE NRN GULF OF CA TOWARD SRN AZ.  AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOLER.  THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS S CENTRAL
AZ...JUST W OF THE THICKER CLOUDS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER.  AS OF NOW...IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT LOW DAMAGING WIND
PROBABILITIES ARE NECESSARY...BUT THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED IN
LATER UPDATES.

...SRN MAINE/NH THIS AFTERNOON...
A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION FORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVES SEWD
TOWARD THE COAST.  THE 12Z GYX SOUNDING SUPPORTS MODERATE BUOYANCY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE OVERALL RISK APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO ADD
DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 031954
SWODY1
SPC AC 031953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

...DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK UPDATE...

THE MRGL HAS BEEN SHIFTED SWD/SWWD TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING TRENDS IN
DESTABILIZATION S OF CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIR FROM CNTRL TO SERN
LOWER MI. THE AIR MASS S OF A RELATED BOUNDARY IS BECOMING
MARGINALLY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
AMIDST UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP/INTENSIFY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ON THE SWRN RIM OF A MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE CROSSING LOWER MI...OFFERING ISOLATED SVR-WIND POTENTIAL.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY MAY ALSO DEVELOP WWD INTO NRN INDIANA/NERN IL WHERE
THE LAKE-BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY OFFER SUFFICIENT ASCENT FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AMIDST 2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.

OTHERWISE...STRONG-TSTM POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN S-CNTRL AZ...PORTIONS OF THE SERN CONUS...AND
PORTIONS OF THE NERN CONUS...THOUGH THE SVR RISK SHOULD REMAIN TOO
LIMITED IN COVERAGE IN EACH CASE FOR MRGL DELINEATION.

..COHEN.. 09/03/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS CONSISTS OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE PAC NW AND A RIDGE FROM TX TO ONTARIO.  SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
TROUGHS ARE TRANSLATING AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER
LOWER MI AND AL...AND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM THE NRN
GULF OF CA TO SRN AZ AND FROM SW CO TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.

...S/SE LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWER MI TROUGH WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...MAINTAINED BY
SURFACE HEATING AND THE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY NOTED IN THE 12Z DTX
SOUNDING.  MODEST ENHANCEMENT OF MIDLEVEL WLY/NWLY FLOW WITH THE
TROUGH...MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG...AND DCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS WITH THE CONVECTION
ACROSS S/SE LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON.

...S CENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK MID-UPPER SPEED MAX IS MOVING
NNEWD FROM THE NRN GULF OF CA TOWARD SRN AZ.  AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOLER.  THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS S CENTRAL
AZ...JUST W OF THE THICKER CLOUDS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER.  AS OF NOW...IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT LOW DAMAGING WIND
PROBABILITIES ARE NECESSARY...BUT THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED IN
LATER UPDATES.

...SRN MAINE/NH THIS AFTERNOON...
A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION FORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVES SEWD
TOWARD THE COAST.  THE 12Z GYX SOUNDING SUPPORTS MODERATE BUOYANCY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE OVERALL RISK APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO ADD
DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES.






000
ACUS02 KWNS 031726
SWODY2
SPC AC 031725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN ND AND
WRN MN...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.

...SYNOPSIS...

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NWRN CONUS WILL UNDERGO SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION
AS A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX ON ITS WRN FLANK ADVANCES THROUGH FLOW ON
THE SRN RIM OF A CYCLONE ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH. DOWNSTREAM...A
BROAD AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE S-CNTRL CONUS
TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...WITHIN WHICH SMALL
CYCLONIC-VORTICITY PERTURBATIONS WILL BE EMBEDDED. THE INTERVENING
SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THE DEEPER-TROUGHING AND ERN-RIDGING PATTERNS WILL
ENCOURAGE THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY
MOVING NEWD OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES VICINITY...WHICH IS PRESENTLY
SUPPORTING SPORADIC LIGHTNING OVER PARTS OF CO. THIS IMPULSE IS
PROJECTED TO BE MOVING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS/RED
RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE D2/FRI PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...A FRONT WILL BE DRAPED FROM SRN MB SWWD THROUGH ND TO
THE VICINITY OF THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS...WITH A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING
SWD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM ITS INTERSECTION WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PSEUDO-BLOCKING NATURE OF
SYNOPTIC-SCALE PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS.

...PORTIONS OF ERN ND/WRN MN...

MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OFFERED BY THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...WAA
ALONG AN IMPULSE-PRECEDING 20-30-KT LLJ...AND FRONTAL CIRCULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD ACROSS SD AND SPREAD NEWD WHILE INTENSIFYING -- PERHAPS BEING
PRECEDED BY ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODEST-ASCENT/
DIURNAL-HEATING REGIME. WITH OBSERVATIONS INDICATING RELATIVELY RICH
NEAR-SFC MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SLGT -- DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S -- THERE SHOULD BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
INSOLATION TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG DESTABILIZATION.
UPSTREAM 12Z RAOBS FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES TO THE ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS /E.G. RIW...RAP...AND BIS/ ALL SAMPLED A STOUT EML REFLECTED
BY 8.5-9.0-C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES. THIS EML WILL BE ADVECTED OVER
THE RICH PBL MOISTURE TO FACILITATE MLCAPE AROUND 1500-3000
J/KG...YIELDING THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE
AUGMENTATION TO THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT OFFERED BY THE
MIGRATORY IMPULSE...H5 FLOW AROUND 25-40 KT WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT
DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE SLGT. SVR COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS IN AREAS
SURROUNDING THE SLGT.

...OTHER AREAS OF STRONG-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

STRONG TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE FOLLOWING REGIMES:

/1/ THE OVERLAP OF SUBTLE ASCENT ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A DECAYING
LOWER-GREAT-LAKES-AREA MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION AND STEEPER LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT TSTMS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR
TWO IN OHIO AND INDIANA. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MITIGATE THE SVR RISK.

/2/ ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SERN SIDE OF DEEPER TROUGHING MAY
ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND THE RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MITIGATE THE SVR RISK.

/3/ WATER-LOADING PROCESSES WILL BOLSTER DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WITH
SEA-BREEZE-CIRCULATION/REMNANT-OUTFLOW-BOUNDARY-ENCOURAGED TSTMS
DIURNALLY DEVELOPING OVER FL AND SRN GA...THOUGH WEAK DEEP SHEAR
WILL MINIMIZE THE SVR RISK.

..COHEN.. 09/03/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 031726
SWODY2
SPC AC 031725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN ND AND
WRN MN...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.

...SYNOPSIS...

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NWRN CONUS WILL UNDERGO SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION
AS A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX ON ITS WRN FLANK ADVANCES THROUGH FLOW ON
THE SRN RIM OF A CYCLONE ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH. DOWNSTREAM...A
BROAD AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE S-CNTRL CONUS
TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...WITHIN WHICH SMALL
CYCLONIC-VORTICITY PERTURBATIONS WILL BE EMBEDDED. THE INTERVENING
SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THE DEEPER-TROUGHING AND ERN-RIDGING PATTERNS WILL
ENCOURAGE THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY
MOVING NEWD OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES VICINITY...WHICH IS PRESENTLY
SUPPORTING SPORADIC LIGHTNING OVER PARTS OF CO. THIS IMPULSE IS
PROJECTED TO BE MOVING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS/RED
RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE D2/FRI PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...A FRONT WILL BE DRAPED FROM SRN MB SWWD THROUGH ND TO
THE VICINITY OF THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS...WITH A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING
SWD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM ITS INTERSECTION WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PSEUDO-BLOCKING NATURE OF
SYNOPTIC-SCALE PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS.

...PORTIONS OF ERN ND/WRN MN...

MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OFFERED BY THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...WAA
ALONG AN IMPULSE-PRECEDING 20-30-KT LLJ...AND FRONTAL CIRCULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD ACROSS SD AND SPREAD NEWD WHILE INTENSIFYING -- PERHAPS BEING
PRECEDED BY ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODEST-ASCENT/
DIURNAL-HEATING REGIME. WITH OBSERVATIONS INDICATING RELATIVELY RICH
NEAR-SFC MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SLGT -- DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S -- THERE SHOULD BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
INSOLATION TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG DESTABILIZATION.
UPSTREAM 12Z RAOBS FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES TO THE ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS /E.G. RIW...RAP...AND BIS/ ALL SAMPLED A STOUT EML REFLECTED
BY 8.5-9.0-C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES. THIS EML WILL BE ADVECTED OVER
THE RICH PBL MOISTURE TO FACILITATE MLCAPE AROUND 1500-3000
J/KG...YIELDING THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE
AUGMENTATION TO THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT OFFERED BY THE
MIGRATORY IMPULSE...H5 FLOW AROUND 25-40 KT WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT
DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE SLGT. SVR COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS IN AREAS
SURROUNDING THE SLGT.

...OTHER AREAS OF STRONG-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

STRONG TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE FOLLOWING REGIMES:

/1/ THE OVERLAP OF SUBTLE ASCENT ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A DECAYING
LOWER-GREAT-LAKES-AREA MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION AND STEEPER LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT TSTMS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR
TWO IN OHIO AND INDIANA. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MITIGATE THE SVR RISK.

/2/ ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SERN SIDE OF DEEPER TROUGHING MAY
ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND THE RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MITIGATE THE SVR RISK.

/3/ WATER-LOADING PROCESSES WILL BOLSTER DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WITH
SEA-BREEZE-CIRCULATION/REMNANT-OUTFLOW-BOUNDARY-ENCOURAGED TSTMS
DIURNALLY DEVELOPING OVER FL AND SRN GA...THOUGH WEAK DEEP SHEAR
WILL MINIMIZE THE SVR RISK.

..COHEN.. 09/03/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 031726
SWODY2
SPC AC 031725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN ND AND
WRN MN...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.

...SYNOPSIS...

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NWRN CONUS WILL UNDERGO SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION
AS A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX ON ITS WRN FLANK ADVANCES THROUGH FLOW ON
THE SRN RIM OF A CYCLONE ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH. DOWNSTREAM...A
BROAD AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE S-CNTRL CONUS
TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...WITHIN WHICH SMALL
CYCLONIC-VORTICITY PERTURBATIONS WILL BE EMBEDDED. THE INTERVENING
SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THE DEEPER-TROUGHING AND ERN-RIDGING PATTERNS WILL
ENCOURAGE THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY
MOVING NEWD OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES VICINITY...WHICH IS PRESENTLY
SUPPORTING SPORADIC LIGHTNING OVER PARTS OF CO. THIS IMPULSE IS
PROJECTED TO BE MOVING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS/RED
RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE D2/FRI PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...A FRONT WILL BE DRAPED FROM SRN MB SWWD THROUGH ND TO
THE VICINITY OF THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS...WITH A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING
SWD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM ITS INTERSECTION WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PSEUDO-BLOCKING NATURE OF
SYNOPTIC-SCALE PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS.

...PORTIONS OF ERN ND/WRN MN...

MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OFFERED BY THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...WAA
ALONG AN IMPULSE-PRECEDING 20-30-KT LLJ...AND FRONTAL CIRCULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD ACROSS SD AND SPREAD NEWD WHILE INTENSIFYING -- PERHAPS BEING
PRECEDED BY ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODEST-ASCENT/
DIURNAL-HEATING REGIME. WITH OBSERVATIONS INDICATING RELATIVELY RICH
NEAR-SFC MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SLGT -- DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S -- THERE SHOULD BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
INSOLATION TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG DESTABILIZATION.
UPSTREAM 12Z RAOBS FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES TO THE ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS /E.G. RIW...RAP...AND BIS/ ALL SAMPLED A STOUT EML REFLECTED
BY 8.5-9.0-C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES. THIS EML WILL BE ADVECTED OVER
THE RICH PBL MOISTURE TO FACILITATE MLCAPE AROUND 1500-3000
J/KG...YIELDING THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE
AUGMENTATION TO THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT OFFERED BY THE
MIGRATORY IMPULSE...H5 FLOW AROUND 25-40 KT WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT
DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE SLGT. SVR COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS IN AREAS
SURROUNDING THE SLGT.

...OTHER AREAS OF STRONG-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

STRONG TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE FOLLOWING REGIMES:

/1/ THE OVERLAP OF SUBTLE ASCENT ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A DECAYING
LOWER-GREAT-LAKES-AREA MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION AND STEEPER LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT TSTMS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR
TWO IN OHIO AND INDIANA. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MITIGATE THE SVR RISK.

/2/ ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SERN SIDE OF DEEPER TROUGHING MAY
ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND THE RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MITIGATE THE SVR RISK.

/3/ WATER-LOADING PROCESSES WILL BOLSTER DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WITH
SEA-BREEZE-CIRCULATION/REMNANT-OUTFLOW-BOUNDARY-ENCOURAGED TSTMS
DIURNALLY DEVELOPING OVER FL AND SRN GA...THOUGH WEAK DEEP SHEAR
WILL MINIMIZE THE SVR RISK.

..COHEN.. 09/03/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 031726
SWODY2
SPC AC 031725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN ND AND
WRN MN...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.

...SYNOPSIS...

A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NWRN CONUS WILL UNDERGO SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION
AS A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX ON ITS WRN FLANK ADVANCES THROUGH FLOW ON
THE SRN RIM OF A CYCLONE ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH. DOWNSTREAM...A
BROAD AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE S-CNTRL CONUS
TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...WITHIN WHICH SMALL
CYCLONIC-VORTICITY PERTURBATIONS WILL BE EMBEDDED. THE INTERVENING
SWLY FLOW BETWEEN THE DEEPER-TROUGHING AND ERN-RIDGING PATTERNS WILL
ENCOURAGE THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY
MOVING NEWD OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES VICINITY...WHICH IS PRESENTLY
SUPPORTING SPORADIC LIGHTNING OVER PARTS OF CO. THIS IMPULSE IS
PROJECTED TO BE MOVING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS/RED
RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE D2/FRI PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...A FRONT WILL BE DRAPED FROM SRN MB SWWD THROUGH ND TO
THE VICINITY OF THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS...WITH A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING
SWD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM ITS INTERSECTION WITH THE FRONT OVER
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PSEUDO-BLOCKING NATURE OF
SYNOPTIC-SCALE PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS.

...PORTIONS OF ERN ND/WRN MN...

MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OFFERED BY THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...WAA
ALONG AN IMPULSE-PRECEDING 20-30-KT LLJ...AND FRONTAL CIRCULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD ACROSS SD AND SPREAD NEWD WHILE INTENSIFYING -- PERHAPS BEING
PRECEDED BY ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE MODEST-ASCENT/
DIURNAL-HEATING REGIME. WITH OBSERVATIONS INDICATING RELATIVELY RICH
NEAR-SFC MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SLGT -- DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S -- THERE SHOULD BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
INSOLATION TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG DESTABILIZATION.
UPSTREAM 12Z RAOBS FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES TO THE ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS /E.G. RIW...RAP...AND BIS/ ALL SAMPLED A STOUT EML REFLECTED
BY 8.5-9.0-C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES. THIS EML WILL BE ADVECTED OVER
THE RICH PBL MOISTURE TO FACILITATE MLCAPE AROUND 1500-3000
J/KG...YIELDING THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE
AUGMENTATION TO THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT OFFERED BY THE
MIGRATORY IMPULSE...H5 FLOW AROUND 25-40 KT WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT
DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE SLGT. SVR COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS IN AREAS
SURROUNDING THE SLGT.

...OTHER AREAS OF STRONG-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...

STRONG TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE FOLLOWING REGIMES:

/1/ THE OVERLAP OF SUBTLE ASCENT ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A DECAYING
LOWER-GREAT-LAKES-AREA MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION AND STEEPER LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT TSTMS WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR
TWO IN OHIO AND INDIANA. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MITIGATE THE SVR RISK.

/2/ ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SERN SIDE OF DEEPER TROUGHING MAY
ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND THE RISK FOR A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MITIGATE THE SVR RISK.

/3/ WATER-LOADING PROCESSES WILL BOLSTER DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WITH
SEA-BREEZE-CIRCULATION/REMNANT-OUTFLOW-BOUNDARY-ENCOURAGED TSTMS
DIURNALLY DEVELOPING OVER FL AND SRN GA...THOUGH WEAK DEEP SHEAR
WILL MINIMIZE THE SVR RISK.

..COHEN.. 09/03/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 031631
SWODY1
SPC AC 031630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE LOWER
MI...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY
ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS CONSISTS OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE PAC NW AND A RIDGE FROM TX TO ONTARIO.  SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
TROUGHS ARE TRANSLATING AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER
LOWER MI AND AL...AND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM THE NRN
GULF OF CA TO SRN AZ AND FROM SW CO TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.

...S/SE LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWER MI TROUGH WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...MAINTAINED BY
SURFACE HEATING AND THE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY NOTED IN THE 12Z DTX
SOUNDING.  MODEST ENHANCEMENT OF MIDLEVEL WLY/NWLY FLOW WITH THE
TROUGH...MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG...AND DCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS WITH THE CONVECTION
ACROSS S/SE LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON.

...S CENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK MID-UPPER SPEED MAX IS MOVING
NNEWD FROM THE NRN GULF OF CA TOWARD SRN AZ.  AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOLER.  THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS S CENTRAL
AZ...JUST W OF THE THICKER CLOUDS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER.  AS OF NOW...IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT LOW DAMAGING WIND
PROBABILITIES ARE NECESSARY...BUT THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED IN
LATER UPDATES.

...SRN MAINE/NH THIS AFTERNOON...
A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION FORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVES SEWD
TOWARD THE COAST.  THE 12Z GYX SOUNDING SUPPORTS MODERATE BUOYANCY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE OVERALL RISK APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO ADD
DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 09/03/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 031631
SWODY1
SPC AC 031630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE LOWER
MI...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY
ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS CONSISTS OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE PAC NW AND A RIDGE FROM TX TO ONTARIO.  SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
TROUGHS ARE TRANSLATING AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER
LOWER MI AND AL...AND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM THE NRN
GULF OF CA TO SRN AZ AND FROM SW CO TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.

...S/SE LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWER MI TROUGH WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...MAINTAINED BY
SURFACE HEATING AND THE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY NOTED IN THE 12Z DTX
SOUNDING.  MODEST ENHANCEMENT OF MIDLEVEL WLY/NWLY FLOW WITH THE
TROUGH...MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG...AND DCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS WITH THE CONVECTION
ACROSS S/SE LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON.

...S CENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK MID-UPPER SPEED MAX IS MOVING
NNEWD FROM THE NRN GULF OF CA TOWARD SRN AZ.  AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOLER.  THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS S CENTRAL
AZ...JUST W OF THE THICKER CLOUDS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER.  AS OF NOW...IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT LOW DAMAGING WIND
PROBABILITIES ARE NECESSARY...BUT THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED IN
LATER UPDATES.

...SRN MAINE/NH THIS AFTERNOON...
A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION FORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVES SEWD
TOWARD THE COAST.  THE 12Z GYX SOUNDING SUPPORTS MODERATE BUOYANCY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE OVERALL RISK APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO ADD
DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 09/03/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 031631
SWODY1
SPC AC 031630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE LOWER
MI...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY
ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS CONSISTS OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE PAC NW AND A RIDGE FROM TX TO ONTARIO.  SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
TROUGHS ARE TRANSLATING AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER
LOWER MI AND AL...AND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM THE NRN
GULF OF CA TO SRN AZ AND FROM SW CO TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.

...S/SE LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWER MI TROUGH WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...MAINTAINED BY
SURFACE HEATING AND THE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY NOTED IN THE 12Z DTX
SOUNDING.  MODEST ENHANCEMENT OF MIDLEVEL WLY/NWLY FLOW WITH THE
TROUGH...MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG...AND DCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS WITH THE CONVECTION
ACROSS S/SE LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON.

...S CENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK MID-UPPER SPEED MAX IS MOVING
NNEWD FROM THE NRN GULF OF CA TOWARD SRN AZ.  AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOLER.  THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS S CENTRAL
AZ...JUST W OF THE THICKER CLOUDS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER.  AS OF NOW...IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT LOW DAMAGING WIND
PROBABILITIES ARE NECESSARY...BUT THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED IN
LATER UPDATES.

...SRN MAINE/NH THIS AFTERNOON...
A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION FORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVES SEWD
TOWARD THE COAST.  THE 12Z GYX SOUNDING SUPPORTS MODERATE BUOYANCY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE OVERALL RISK APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO ADD
DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 09/03/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 031631
SWODY1
SPC AC 031630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE LOWER
MI...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY
ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS CONSISTS OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER
THE PAC NW AND A RIDGE FROM TX TO ONTARIO.  SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
TROUGHS ARE TRANSLATING AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER
LOWER MI AND AL...AND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM THE NRN
GULF OF CA TO SRN AZ AND FROM SW CO TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.

...S/SE LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWER MI TROUGH WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...MAINTAINED BY
SURFACE HEATING AND THE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY NOTED IN THE 12Z DTX
SOUNDING.  MODEST ENHANCEMENT OF MIDLEVEL WLY/NWLY FLOW WITH THE
TROUGH...MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG...AND DCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG COULD
SUPPORT STRONG/ISOLATED DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS WITH THE CONVECTION
ACROSS S/SE LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON.

...S CENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK MID-UPPER SPEED MAX IS MOVING
NNEWD FROM THE NRN GULF OF CA TOWARD SRN AZ.  AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FROM THE S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOLER.  THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WITH
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS S CENTRAL
AZ...JUST W OF THE THICKER CLOUDS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER.  AS OF NOW...IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT LOW DAMAGING WIND
PROBABILITIES ARE NECESSARY...BUT THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED IN
LATER UPDATES.

...SRN MAINE/NH THIS AFTERNOON...
A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION FORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVES SEWD
TOWARD THE COAST.  THE 12Z GYX SOUNDING SUPPORTS MODERATE BUOYANCY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE OVERALL RISK APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO ADD
DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 09/03/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 031241
SWODY1
SPC AC 031240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT OHIO VALLEY...AS WELL AS FROM PARTS OF
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...

A LONG-WAVE TROUGH PRESENT OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD...RESULTING IN A BUILDING DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE FROM THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY TO HUDSON BAY.  THIS PATTERN
EVOLUTION WILL YIELD A CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT
FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS AND INCREASED CAPPING ATOP
A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY.

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A NUMBER OF VORTICITY MAXIMA
PRESENT WITHIN THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE REGIME.  ONE SUCH FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE
NRN PLAINS BY 04/12Z.

AT THE SURFACE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM
THE DAKOTAS TO GREAT BASIN...ANCHORED BY A LEE CYCLONE OVER THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS.

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

A SMALL MCS IS ONGOING AS OF 12Z OVER NRN LOWER MI...COINCIDENT WITH
THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MENTIONED ABOVE.  A SUBSET OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY FROM SRN LOWER MI INTO NRN
PARTS OF IND/OH.  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF THIS AREA...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
PROMOTE MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...CAPPING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE CASTS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED.
THEREFORE...NO SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED.

...AZ/NM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THE POSSIBLE EMERGENCE OF
A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION FROM NWRN MEXICO WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST A MOIST /I.E. PW OF AROUND 1.5
INCHES/ AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  AS SUCH...WATER-LOADING
EFFECTS MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT VIGOR WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS.

...CNTRL ROCKIES INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA RELATED TO THE FOUR CORNERS MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A STEEP-LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT TO
FOSTER HIGH-BASED STORMS LATER TODAY...A FEW OR WHICH COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS.

..MEAD/GLEASON.. 09/03/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 031241
SWODY1
SPC AC 031240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT OHIO VALLEY...AS WELL AS FROM PARTS OF
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...

A LONG-WAVE TROUGH PRESENT OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD...RESULTING IN A BUILDING DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE FROM THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY TO HUDSON BAY.  THIS PATTERN
EVOLUTION WILL YIELD A CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT
FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS AND INCREASED CAPPING ATOP
A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY.

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A NUMBER OF VORTICITY MAXIMA
PRESENT WITHIN THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE REGIME.  ONE SUCH FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE
NRN PLAINS BY 04/12Z.

AT THE SURFACE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM
THE DAKOTAS TO GREAT BASIN...ANCHORED BY A LEE CYCLONE OVER THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS.

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

A SMALL MCS IS ONGOING AS OF 12Z OVER NRN LOWER MI...COINCIDENT WITH
THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MENTIONED ABOVE.  A SUBSET OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY FROM SRN LOWER MI INTO NRN
PARTS OF IND/OH.  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF THIS AREA...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
PROMOTE MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...CAPPING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE CASTS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED.
THEREFORE...NO SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED.

...AZ/NM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THE POSSIBLE EMERGENCE OF
A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION FROM NWRN MEXICO WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST A MOIST /I.E. PW OF AROUND 1.5
INCHES/ AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  AS SUCH...WATER-LOADING
EFFECTS MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT VIGOR WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS.

...CNTRL ROCKIES INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA RELATED TO THE FOUR CORNERS MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A STEEP-LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT TO
FOSTER HIGH-BASED STORMS LATER TODAY...A FEW OR WHICH COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS.

..MEAD/GLEASON.. 09/03/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 031241
SWODY1
SPC AC 031240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT OHIO VALLEY...AS WELL AS FROM PARTS OF
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...

A LONG-WAVE TROUGH PRESENT OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD...RESULTING IN A BUILDING DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE FROM THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY TO HUDSON BAY.  THIS PATTERN
EVOLUTION WILL YIELD A CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT
FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS AND INCREASED CAPPING ATOP
A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY.

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A NUMBER OF VORTICITY MAXIMA
PRESENT WITHIN THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE REGIME.  ONE SUCH FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE
NRN PLAINS BY 04/12Z.

AT THE SURFACE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM
THE DAKOTAS TO GREAT BASIN...ANCHORED BY A LEE CYCLONE OVER THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS.

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

A SMALL MCS IS ONGOING AS OF 12Z OVER NRN LOWER MI...COINCIDENT WITH
THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MENTIONED ABOVE.  A SUBSET OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY FROM SRN LOWER MI INTO NRN
PARTS OF IND/OH.  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF THIS AREA...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
PROMOTE MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...CAPPING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE CASTS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED.
THEREFORE...NO SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED.

...AZ/NM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THE POSSIBLE EMERGENCE OF
A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION FROM NWRN MEXICO WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST A MOIST /I.E. PW OF AROUND 1.5
INCHES/ AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  AS SUCH...WATER-LOADING
EFFECTS MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT VIGOR WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS.

...CNTRL ROCKIES INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA RELATED TO THE FOUR CORNERS MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A STEEP-LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT TO
FOSTER HIGH-BASED STORMS LATER TODAY...A FEW OR WHICH COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS.

..MEAD/GLEASON.. 09/03/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 031241
SWODY1
SPC AC 031240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND ADJACENT OHIO VALLEY...AS WELL AS FROM PARTS OF
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...

A LONG-WAVE TROUGH PRESENT OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD...RESULTING IN A BUILDING DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE FROM THE MID/LOWER MO VALLEY TO HUDSON BAY.  THIS PATTERN
EVOLUTION WILL YIELD A CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT
FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS AND INCREASED CAPPING ATOP
A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY.

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A NUMBER OF VORTICITY MAXIMA
PRESENT WITHIN THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE REGIME.  ONE SUCH FEATURE WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE
NRN PLAINS BY 04/12Z.

AT THE SURFACE...A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM
THE DAKOTAS TO GREAT BASIN...ANCHORED BY A LEE CYCLONE OVER THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS.

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

A SMALL MCS IS ONGOING AS OF 12Z OVER NRN LOWER MI...COINCIDENT WITH
THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MENTIONED ABOVE.  A SUBSET OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY FROM SRN LOWER MI INTO NRN
PARTS OF IND/OH.  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.

TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF THIS AREA...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
PROMOTE MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...CAPPING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE CASTS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED.
THEREFORE...NO SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED.

...AZ/NM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THE POSSIBLE EMERGENCE OF
A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION FROM NWRN MEXICO WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST A MOIST /I.E. PW OF AROUND 1.5
INCHES/ AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  AS SUCH...WATER-LOADING
EFFECTS MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT VIGOR WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS.

...CNTRL ROCKIES INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA RELATED TO THE FOUR CORNERS MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A STEEP-LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT TO
FOSTER HIGH-BASED STORMS LATER TODAY...A FEW OR WHICH COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS.

..MEAD/GLEASON.. 09/03/2015





000
ACUS03 KWNS 030747
SWODY3
SPC AC 030746

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NWRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS VERY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
NEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. BY 12Z
SATURDAY A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN MN THEN SWWD AS A
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH SRN ND OR NRN SD AND WWD TO A SFC LOW OVER
NRN WY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW SWWD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AREA. PRIMARY SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN
OVER SERN MT LATER SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH. THE ATTENDANT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE WRN DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.


...ERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WRN AND NRN MN....

A MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS INTO MN WHERE MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM NRN ND AND ON NOSE OF LLJ
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN. WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...BUT BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION COULD POSSIBLY BE
LIMITED BY AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT FROM ERN
SD INTO SERN ND DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT INTO MN DURING THE
EVENING. A MODEST MID-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL. AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS FOR A PORTION OF THIS REGION...BUT PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME IS EVOLUTION AND EXTENT OF EARLY STORMS.

...CNTRL THROUGH ERN MT...

SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE OVER ERN MT INTO NERN WY
SATURDAY EVENING WHERE ELY POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION. STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND NORTH OF STATIONARY FRONT
WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..DIAL.. 09/03/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 030747
SWODY3
SPC AC 030746

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NWRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS VERY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
NEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. BY 12Z
SATURDAY A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN MN THEN SWWD AS A
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH SRN ND OR NRN SD AND WWD TO A SFC LOW OVER
NRN WY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW SWWD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AREA. PRIMARY SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN
OVER SERN MT LATER SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH. THE ATTENDANT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE WRN DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.


...ERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WRN AND NRN MN....

A MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS INTO MN WHERE MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM NRN ND AND ON NOSE OF LLJ
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN. WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...BUT BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION COULD POSSIBLY BE
LIMITED BY AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT FROM ERN
SD INTO SERN ND DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT INTO MN DURING THE
EVENING. A MODEST MID-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL. AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS FOR A PORTION OF THIS REGION...BUT PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME IS EVOLUTION AND EXTENT OF EARLY STORMS.

...CNTRL THROUGH ERN MT...

SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE OVER ERN MT INTO NERN WY
SATURDAY EVENING WHERE ELY POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION. STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND NORTH OF STATIONARY FRONT
WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..DIAL.. 09/03/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 030747
SWODY3
SPC AC 030746

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NWRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS VERY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
NEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. BY 12Z
SATURDAY A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN MN THEN SWWD AS A
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH SRN ND OR NRN SD AND WWD TO A SFC LOW OVER
NRN WY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW SWWD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AREA. PRIMARY SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN
OVER SERN MT LATER SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH. THE ATTENDANT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE WRN DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.


...ERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WRN AND NRN MN....

A MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS INTO MN WHERE MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM NRN ND AND ON NOSE OF LLJ
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN. WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...BUT BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION COULD POSSIBLY BE
LIMITED BY AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT FROM ERN
SD INTO SERN ND DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT INTO MN DURING THE
EVENING. A MODEST MID-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL. AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS FOR A PORTION OF THIS REGION...BUT PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME IS EVOLUTION AND EXTENT OF EARLY STORMS.

...CNTRL THROUGH ERN MT...

SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE OVER ERN MT INTO NERN WY
SATURDAY EVENING WHERE ELY POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION. STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND NORTH OF STATIONARY FRONT
WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..DIAL.. 09/03/2015





000
ACUS03 KWNS 030742
SWODY3
SPC AC 030741

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NWRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS VERY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
NEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. BY 12Z
SATURDAY A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN MN THEN SWWD AS A
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH SRN ND OR NRN SD AND WWD TO A SFC LOW OVER
NRN WY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW SWWD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AREA. PRIMARY SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN
OVER SERN MT LATER SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH. THE ATTENDANT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE WRN DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.


...ERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WRN AND NRN MN....

A MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS INTO MN WHERE MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM NRN ND AND ON NOSE OF LLJ
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN. WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...BUT BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION COULD POSSIBLY BE
LIMITED BY AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT FROM ERN
SD INTO SERN ND DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT INTO MN DURING THE
EVENING. A MODEST MID-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL. AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS FOR A PORTION OF THIS REGION...BUT PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME IS EVOLUTION AND EXTENT OF EARLY STORMS.

...CNTRL THROUGH ERN MT...

SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE OVER ERN MT INTO NERN WY
SATURDAY EVENING WHERE ELY POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION. STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND NORTH OF STATIONARY FRONT
WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..DIAL.. 09/03/2015





000
ACUS03 KWNS 030742
SWODY3
SPC AC 030741

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NWRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS VERY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
NEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. BY 12Z
SATURDAY A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN MN THEN SWWD AS A
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH SRN ND OR NRN SD AND WWD TO A SFC LOW OVER
NRN WY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW SWWD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AREA. PRIMARY SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN
OVER SERN MT LATER SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH. THE ATTENDANT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE WRN DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.


...ERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WRN AND NRN MN....

A MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS INTO MN WHERE MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM NRN ND AND ON NOSE OF LLJ
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN. WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...BUT BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION COULD POSSIBLY BE
LIMITED BY AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT FROM ERN
SD INTO SERN ND DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT INTO MN DURING THE
EVENING. A MODEST MID-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL. AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS FOR A PORTION OF THIS REGION...BUT PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME IS EVOLUTION AND EXTENT OF EARLY STORMS.

...CNTRL THROUGH ERN MT...

SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE OVER ERN MT INTO NERN WY
SATURDAY EVENING WHERE ELY POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION. STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND NORTH OF STATIONARY FRONT
WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..DIAL.. 09/03/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 030742
SWODY3
SPC AC 030741

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NWRN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS VERY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE
NEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. BY 12Z
SATURDAY A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN MN THEN SWWD AS A
STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH SRN ND OR NRN SD AND WWD TO A SFC LOW OVER
NRN WY. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW SWWD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AREA. PRIMARY SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN
OVER SERN MT LATER SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH. THE ATTENDANT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL REACH
THE WRN DAKOTAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.


...ERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WRN AND NRN MN....

A MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS INTO MN WHERE MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM NRN ND AND ON NOSE OF LLJ
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN. WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...BUT BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION COULD POSSIBLY BE
LIMITED BY AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT FROM ERN
SD INTO SERN ND DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT INTO MN DURING THE
EVENING. A MODEST MID-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL. AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS FOR A PORTION OF THIS REGION...BUT PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME IS EVOLUTION AND EXTENT OF EARLY STORMS.

...CNTRL THROUGH ERN MT...

SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE OVER ERN MT INTO NERN WY
SATURDAY EVENING WHERE ELY POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION. STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG EWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND NORTH OF STATIONARY FRONT
WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..DIAL.. 09/03/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 030550
SWODY1
SPC AC 030549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST
REGION INTO THE NEW ENGLAND...MID ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST REGIONS.

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN TROUGHING OVER W
COAST AND RIDGING FROM SRN PLAINS NNEWD ACROSS HUDSON BAY REGION.
GEN-TSTM POTENTIAL OVER PAC NW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA ORBITING LARGE/COMPLEX CYCLONE OVER SRN BC...AS IT
SHIFTS SLOWLY SWD ACROSS PAC NW.  WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM 4 CORNERS SSWWD ACROSS ERN
AZ -- IS FCST TO EJECT SLOWLY NNEWD...REACHING ROCKIES OF CENTRAL CO
AND N-CENTRAL NM BY 4/00Z THEN FROM WRN DAKOTAS TO ERN CO BY 4/12Z.
WEAK PERTURBATION NOW OVER WRN/CENTRAL UPPER MI AND LM SHORE OF WI
WILL MOVE GENERALLY EWD TO LOWER MI AND LH BY 4/00Z...THEN WEAKEN
AND DRIFT SEWD/SWD.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW OVER QUE IS FCST TO MOVE SWD...REACHING SRN
NEW ENGLAND AND CENTRAL/NWRN NY BY END OF PERIOD.  WRN SEGMENT OF
THIS FRONTAL ZONE -- INITIALLY QUASISTATIONARY FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI
ACROSS CENTRAL WI AND CENTRAL/NWRN MN -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH PERIOD EXCEPT AS WARM FRONT ACROSS NWRN MN.  MI SEGMENT OF
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DIFFUSED BY CONVECTIVE PROCESSES.
WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY DRYLINE WILL PERSIST FROM WRN DAKOTAS SWD TO
BIG BEND REGION OF SW TX.

AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TSTM NEAR SVR LIMITS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY
OF THESE AREAS...HOWEVER IN EACH...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO POORLY
FOCUSED AND/OR LOW TO ASSIGN CATEGORICAL AREAS ATTM...

...LOWER MI TO MID/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT...
SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MORNING
AND AFTN...PERHAPS EVEN INTO EVENING...OVER THIS AREA IN RESPONSE TO
PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK MLCINH...DIURNAL HEATING FOR
AFTN CONVECTION...AND OVER AFFECTED GREAT LAKES STATES...LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT HEATING MAY OCCUR TO OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR
AROUND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE TO DEVELOP...AND MOISTURE CONTENT MAY
SUPPORT A LOCALLY DAMAGING/WATER-LOADING-RELATED DOWNBURST.
HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WEAK OVER THIS
REGION...LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR.  AS USUAL...SUB-SVR
GUSTS UNDER 50 KT STILL MAY DO LOCALIZED/MINOR DAMAGE OR AFFECT
TREES.  WEAKENING OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATION WITH TIME...ALONG
WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION...SHOULD REDUCE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/STRENGTH CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN INVOF
DRYLINE FROM DAKOTAS TO WRN NEB...AS STG SFC HEATING/MIXING REMOVES
MLCINH AND LIFT IS AIDED BY WEAK CONVERGENCE.  FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ABUNDANT DCAPE AND LARGE DEW-POINT DEPRESSIONS IN SUPPORT OF
AT LEAST STG/BRIEFLY DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL FROM A STORM OR TWO
SOMEWHERE UP AND DOWN DRYLINE CORRIDOR.  HOWEVER...MIXING/DRYING
ALSO SHOULD LIMIT LIQUID-WATER CONTENT OF DRYLINE STORMS AND ALSO
KEEP MLCAPE CONSTRAINED TO LESS THAN 800 J/KG IN MOST AREAS.
HIGHER-BUOYANCY EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER PORTIONS ND WHERE DEEPER MOIST
LAYER AND STRONGER DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST CLOSER TO DRYLINE COMPARED
TO FARTHER S.  HOWEVER...MLCINH WILL BE STRONGER AS WELL...RENDERING
TSTM INITIATION MORE UNCERTAIN.  LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF
EJECTING/WEAK 4-CORNERS SHORTWAVE MAY ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE GROWTH
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN CO...EVEN BEHIND DRYLINE.
HOWEVER...WEAK FLOW SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION.

...SERN AZ TO CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN TODAY
OVER THIS REGION...INITIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS DIABATIC HEATING
PREFERENTIALLY REMOVES MLCINH.  MUCH OF THIS AREA WILL BE BEHIND
INFLUENCE OF EJECTING 4-CORNERS PERTURBATION...BUT STILL WITHIN
PERSISTENT PLUME OF LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL MOISTURE.  FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE...WITH
SPOTTY AREAS WHERE INVERTED-V BOUNDARY-LAYER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
DEVELOP IN SUPPORT OF STG GUSTS.  HOWEVER...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER DISORGANIZED GIVEN WEAK LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL WINDS AND LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER SUPPORT.

..EDWARDS/COOK.. 09/03/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 030550
SWODY1
SPC AC 030549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST
REGION INTO THE NEW ENGLAND...MID ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST REGIONS.

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN TROUGHING OVER W
COAST AND RIDGING FROM SRN PLAINS NNEWD ACROSS HUDSON BAY REGION.
GEN-TSTM POTENTIAL OVER PAC NW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA ORBITING LARGE/COMPLEX CYCLONE OVER SRN BC...AS IT
SHIFTS SLOWLY SWD ACROSS PAC NW.  WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM 4 CORNERS SSWWD ACROSS ERN
AZ -- IS FCST TO EJECT SLOWLY NNEWD...REACHING ROCKIES OF CENTRAL CO
AND N-CENTRAL NM BY 4/00Z THEN FROM WRN DAKOTAS TO ERN CO BY 4/12Z.
WEAK PERTURBATION NOW OVER WRN/CENTRAL UPPER MI AND LM SHORE OF WI
WILL MOVE GENERALLY EWD TO LOWER MI AND LH BY 4/00Z...THEN WEAKEN
AND DRIFT SEWD/SWD.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW OVER QUE IS FCST TO MOVE SWD...REACHING SRN
NEW ENGLAND AND CENTRAL/NWRN NY BY END OF PERIOD.  WRN SEGMENT OF
THIS FRONTAL ZONE -- INITIALLY QUASISTATIONARY FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI
ACROSS CENTRAL WI AND CENTRAL/NWRN MN -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH PERIOD EXCEPT AS WARM FRONT ACROSS NWRN MN.  MI SEGMENT OF
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DIFFUSED BY CONVECTIVE PROCESSES.
WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY DRYLINE WILL PERSIST FROM WRN DAKOTAS SWD TO
BIG BEND REGION OF SW TX.

AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TSTM NEAR SVR LIMITS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY
OF THESE AREAS...HOWEVER IN EACH...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO POORLY
FOCUSED AND/OR LOW TO ASSIGN CATEGORICAL AREAS ATTM...

...LOWER MI TO MID/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT...
SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MORNING
AND AFTN...PERHAPS EVEN INTO EVENING...OVER THIS AREA IN RESPONSE TO
PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK MLCINH...DIURNAL HEATING FOR
AFTN CONVECTION...AND OVER AFFECTED GREAT LAKES STATES...LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT HEATING MAY OCCUR TO OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR
AROUND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE TO DEVELOP...AND MOISTURE CONTENT MAY
SUPPORT A LOCALLY DAMAGING/WATER-LOADING-RELATED DOWNBURST.
HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WEAK OVER THIS
REGION...LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR.  AS USUAL...SUB-SVR
GUSTS UNDER 50 KT STILL MAY DO LOCALIZED/MINOR DAMAGE OR AFFECT
TREES.  WEAKENING OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATION WITH TIME...ALONG
WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION...SHOULD REDUCE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/STRENGTH CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN INVOF
DRYLINE FROM DAKOTAS TO WRN NEB...AS STG SFC HEATING/MIXING REMOVES
MLCINH AND LIFT IS AIDED BY WEAK CONVERGENCE.  FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ABUNDANT DCAPE AND LARGE DEW-POINT DEPRESSIONS IN SUPPORT OF
AT LEAST STG/BRIEFLY DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL FROM A STORM OR TWO
SOMEWHERE UP AND DOWN DRYLINE CORRIDOR.  HOWEVER...MIXING/DRYING
ALSO SHOULD LIMIT LIQUID-WATER CONTENT OF DRYLINE STORMS AND ALSO
KEEP MLCAPE CONSTRAINED TO LESS THAN 800 J/KG IN MOST AREAS.
HIGHER-BUOYANCY EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER PORTIONS ND WHERE DEEPER MOIST
LAYER AND STRONGER DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST CLOSER TO DRYLINE COMPARED
TO FARTHER S.  HOWEVER...MLCINH WILL BE STRONGER AS WELL...RENDERING
TSTM INITIATION MORE UNCERTAIN.  LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF
EJECTING/WEAK 4-CORNERS SHORTWAVE MAY ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE GROWTH
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN CO...EVEN BEHIND DRYLINE.
HOWEVER...WEAK FLOW SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION.

...SERN AZ TO CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN TODAY
OVER THIS REGION...INITIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS DIABATIC HEATING
PREFERENTIALLY REMOVES MLCINH.  MUCH OF THIS AREA WILL BE BEHIND
INFLUENCE OF EJECTING 4-CORNERS PERTURBATION...BUT STILL WITHIN
PERSISTENT PLUME OF LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL MOISTURE.  FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE...WITH
SPOTTY AREAS WHERE INVERTED-V BOUNDARY-LAYER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
DEVELOP IN SUPPORT OF STG GUSTS.  HOWEVER...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER DISORGANIZED GIVEN WEAK LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL WINDS AND LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER SUPPORT.

..EDWARDS/COOK.. 09/03/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 030550
SWODY1
SPC AC 030549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST
REGION INTO THE NEW ENGLAND...MID ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST REGIONS.

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN TROUGHING OVER W
COAST AND RIDGING FROM SRN PLAINS NNEWD ACROSS HUDSON BAY REGION.
GEN-TSTM POTENTIAL OVER PAC NW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA ORBITING LARGE/COMPLEX CYCLONE OVER SRN BC...AS IT
SHIFTS SLOWLY SWD ACROSS PAC NW.  WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM 4 CORNERS SSWWD ACROSS ERN
AZ -- IS FCST TO EJECT SLOWLY NNEWD...REACHING ROCKIES OF CENTRAL CO
AND N-CENTRAL NM BY 4/00Z THEN FROM WRN DAKOTAS TO ERN CO BY 4/12Z.
WEAK PERTURBATION NOW OVER WRN/CENTRAL UPPER MI AND LM SHORE OF WI
WILL MOVE GENERALLY EWD TO LOWER MI AND LH BY 4/00Z...THEN WEAKEN
AND DRIFT SEWD/SWD.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW OVER QUE IS FCST TO MOVE SWD...REACHING SRN
NEW ENGLAND AND CENTRAL/NWRN NY BY END OF PERIOD.  WRN SEGMENT OF
THIS FRONTAL ZONE -- INITIALLY QUASISTATIONARY FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI
ACROSS CENTRAL WI AND CENTRAL/NWRN MN -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH PERIOD EXCEPT AS WARM FRONT ACROSS NWRN MN.  MI SEGMENT OF
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DIFFUSED BY CONVECTIVE PROCESSES.
WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY DRYLINE WILL PERSIST FROM WRN DAKOTAS SWD TO
BIG BEND REGION OF SW TX.

AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TSTM NEAR SVR LIMITS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY
OF THESE AREAS...HOWEVER IN EACH...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO POORLY
FOCUSED AND/OR LOW TO ASSIGN CATEGORICAL AREAS ATTM...

...LOWER MI TO MID/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT...
SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MORNING
AND AFTN...PERHAPS EVEN INTO EVENING...OVER THIS AREA IN RESPONSE TO
PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK MLCINH...DIURNAL HEATING FOR
AFTN CONVECTION...AND OVER AFFECTED GREAT LAKES STATES...LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT HEATING MAY OCCUR TO OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR
AROUND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE TO DEVELOP...AND MOISTURE CONTENT MAY
SUPPORT A LOCALLY DAMAGING/WATER-LOADING-RELATED DOWNBURST.
HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WEAK OVER THIS
REGION...LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR.  AS USUAL...SUB-SVR
GUSTS UNDER 50 KT STILL MAY DO LOCALIZED/MINOR DAMAGE OR AFFECT
TREES.  WEAKENING OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATION WITH TIME...ALONG
WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION...SHOULD REDUCE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/STRENGTH CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN INVOF
DRYLINE FROM DAKOTAS TO WRN NEB...AS STG SFC HEATING/MIXING REMOVES
MLCINH AND LIFT IS AIDED BY WEAK CONVERGENCE.  FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ABUNDANT DCAPE AND LARGE DEW-POINT DEPRESSIONS IN SUPPORT OF
AT LEAST STG/BRIEFLY DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL FROM A STORM OR TWO
SOMEWHERE UP AND DOWN DRYLINE CORRIDOR.  HOWEVER...MIXING/DRYING
ALSO SHOULD LIMIT LIQUID-WATER CONTENT OF DRYLINE STORMS AND ALSO
KEEP MLCAPE CONSTRAINED TO LESS THAN 800 J/KG IN MOST AREAS.
HIGHER-BUOYANCY EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER PORTIONS ND WHERE DEEPER MOIST
LAYER AND STRONGER DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST CLOSER TO DRYLINE COMPARED
TO FARTHER S.  HOWEVER...MLCINH WILL BE STRONGER AS WELL...RENDERING
TSTM INITIATION MORE UNCERTAIN.  LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF
EJECTING/WEAK 4-CORNERS SHORTWAVE MAY ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE GROWTH
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN CO...EVEN BEHIND DRYLINE.
HOWEVER...WEAK FLOW SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION.

...SERN AZ TO CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN TODAY
OVER THIS REGION...INITIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS DIABATIC HEATING
PREFERENTIALLY REMOVES MLCINH.  MUCH OF THIS AREA WILL BE BEHIND
INFLUENCE OF EJECTING 4-CORNERS PERTURBATION...BUT STILL WITHIN
PERSISTENT PLUME OF LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL MOISTURE.  FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE...WITH
SPOTTY AREAS WHERE INVERTED-V BOUNDARY-LAYER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
DEVELOP IN SUPPORT OF STG GUSTS.  HOWEVER...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER DISORGANIZED GIVEN WEAK LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL WINDS AND LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER SUPPORT.

..EDWARDS/COOK.. 09/03/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 030550
SWODY1
SPC AC 030549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST
REGION INTO THE NEW ENGLAND...MID ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST REGIONS.

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN TROUGHING OVER W
COAST AND RIDGING FROM SRN PLAINS NNEWD ACROSS HUDSON BAY REGION.
GEN-TSTM POTENTIAL OVER PAC NW WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA ORBITING LARGE/COMPLEX CYCLONE OVER SRN BC...AS IT
SHIFTS SLOWLY SWD ACROSS PAC NW.  WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM 4 CORNERS SSWWD ACROSS ERN
AZ -- IS FCST TO EJECT SLOWLY NNEWD...REACHING ROCKIES OF CENTRAL CO
AND N-CENTRAL NM BY 4/00Z THEN FROM WRN DAKOTAS TO ERN CO BY 4/12Z.
WEAK PERTURBATION NOW OVER WRN/CENTRAL UPPER MI AND LM SHORE OF WI
WILL MOVE GENERALLY EWD TO LOWER MI AND LH BY 4/00Z...THEN WEAKEN
AND DRIFT SEWD/SWD.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW OVER QUE IS FCST TO MOVE SWD...REACHING SRN
NEW ENGLAND AND CENTRAL/NWRN NY BY END OF PERIOD.  WRN SEGMENT OF
THIS FRONTAL ZONE -- INITIALLY QUASISTATIONARY FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI
ACROSS CENTRAL WI AND CENTRAL/NWRN MN -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH PERIOD EXCEPT AS WARM FRONT ACROSS NWRN MN.  MI SEGMENT OF
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DIFFUSED BY CONVECTIVE PROCESSES.
WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY DRYLINE WILL PERSIST FROM WRN DAKOTAS SWD TO
BIG BEND REGION OF SW TX.

AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TSTM NEAR SVR LIMITS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER ANY
OF THESE AREAS...HOWEVER IN EACH...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO POORLY
FOCUSED AND/OR LOW TO ASSIGN CATEGORICAL AREAS ATTM...

...LOWER MI TO MID/UPPER OH VALLEY REGION AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT...
SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MORNING
AND AFTN...PERHAPS EVEN INTO EVENING...OVER THIS AREA IN RESPONSE TO
PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK MLCINH...DIURNAL HEATING FOR
AFTN CONVECTION...AND OVER AFFECTED GREAT LAKES STATES...LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT HEATING MAY OCCUR TO OFFSET WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR
AROUND 2000 J/KG MLCAPE TO DEVELOP...AND MOISTURE CONTENT MAY
SUPPORT A LOCALLY DAMAGING/WATER-LOADING-RELATED DOWNBURST.
HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WEAK OVER THIS
REGION...LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR.  AS USUAL...SUB-SVR
GUSTS UNDER 50 KT STILL MAY DO LOCALIZED/MINOR DAMAGE OR AFFECT
TREES.  WEAKENING OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATION WITH TIME...ALONG
WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION...SHOULD REDUCE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/STRENGTH CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN INVOF
DRYLINE FROM DAKOTAS TO WRN NEB...AS STG SFC HEATING/MIXING REMOVES
MLCINH AND LIFT IS AIDED BY WEAK CONVERGENCE.  FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ABUNDANT DCAPE AND LARGE DEW-POINT DEPRESSIONS IN SUPPORT OF
AT LEAST STG/BRIEFLY DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL FROM A STORM OR TWO
SOMEWHERE UP AND DOWN DRYLINE CORRIDOR.  HOWEVER...MIXING/DRYING
ALSO SHOULD LIMIT LIQUID-WATER CONTENT OF DRYLINE STORMS AND ALSO
KEEP MLCAPE CONSTRAINED TO LESS THAN 800 J/KG IN MOST AREAS.
HIGHER-BUOYANCY EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER PORTIONS ND WHERE DEEPER MOIST
LAYER AND STRONGER DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST CLOSER TO DRYLINE COMPARED
TO FARTHER S.  HOWEVER...MLCINH WILL BE STRONGER AS WELL...RENDERING
TSTM INITIATION MORE UNCERTAIN.  LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF
EJECTING/WEAK 4-CORNERS SHORTWAVE MAY ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE GROWTH
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN CO...EVEN BEHIND DRYLINE.
HOWEVER...WEAK FLOW SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION.

...SERN AZ TO CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN TODAY
OVER THIS REGION...INITIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AS DIABATIC HEATING
PREFERENTIALLY REMOVES MLCINH.  MUCH OF THIS AREA WILL BE BEHIND
INFLUENCE OF EJECTING 4-CORNERS PERTURBATION...BUT STILL WITHIN
PERSISTENT PLUME OF LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL MOISTURE.  FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE...WITH
SPOTTY AREAS WHERE INVERTED-V BOUNDARY-LAYER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
DEVELOP IN SUPPORT OF STG GUSTS.  HOWEVER...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER DISORGANIZED GIVEN WEAK LOW/MIDDLE-LEVEL WINDS AND LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER SUPPORT.

..EDWARDS/COOK.. 09/03/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 030531
SWODY2
SPC AC 030530

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN ND INTO NWRN MN...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES THROUGH
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS. OTHER STORMS WILL
DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...

A HIGH-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES FRIDAY...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS A
DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY WITH
WEAKER IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN NWLY FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC AREA. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND FROM NWRN ND SWWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY FRIDAY WITH A
LEE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT
WILL ADVANCE SEWD AND LIKELY EXTEND FROM NWRN MN SWWD THROUGH NRN SD
INTO SERN MT OR NERN WY AND INTO NV BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD.

...ERN ND THROUGH NWRN MN AREA...

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY OVER A
PORTION OF THE DAKOTAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
NEWD-ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OTHER STORMS WILL BE ONGOING IN
POST-FRONTAL ZONE FROM ERN MT INTO NWRN ND. DOWNSTREAM...ACROSS ERN
ND INTO MN...THE MOIST WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN BELT OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A MODEST UPPER JET WITHIN BASE OF THIS FEATURE
WILL AUGMENT DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WITH VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMING
AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING
WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL POSE SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT
RISK IN LATER UPDATES.

..DIAL.. 09/03/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 030058
SWODY1
SPC AC 030056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE VIRGINIA/NORTH
CAROLINA TIDEWATER REGION...AND ALSO...OVER PARTS OF ARIZONA AND THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.  SEVERE-WIND POTENTIAL LOOKS TOO ISOLATED AND POORLY
FOCUSED FOR ANY RISK AREAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY TROUGHING
OVER PAC COAST REGION...EXTENDING SWD FROM CYCLONE OVER BC...AND
DOWNSTREAM RIGS FROM SRN PLAINS NNEWD ACROSS HUDSON BAY.  DOWNSTREAM
FROM THAT RIDGE...THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY...
1.  OVER WI...WRN LOWER MI AND WRN LS...AND FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY
ESEWD ACROSS UPPER MI AND NRN LM THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.
2.  OVER VA...FCST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND MOVE SEWD OFF ATLC
COAST NEAR HAMPTON ROADS OVERNIGHT.
3.  PERSISTENT...ELONGATED...QUASISTATIONARY CYCLONIC-SHEAR ZONE
FROM BAY OF CAMPECHE NWD ACROSS WRN GULF THEN NEWD OVER MID SOUTH TO
LOWER OH VALLEY.  SEVERAL EMBEDDED/MESOSCALE VORTICES WERE
APPARENT...THOUGH OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
PRESENT LOCATION/ORIENTATION THROUGH 12Z.

AT SFC...NEBULOUS PATTERN WAS APPARENT AT 00Z OVER MOST OF
CONUS...DOMINATED BY MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS WEAK LOWS...TROUGHS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  EXCEPTIONS INCLUDED QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL
ZONE FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI WWD THROUGH WEAK LOW OVER SRN WI/MN
BORDER AREA...THEN NWWD ACROSS NWRN MN.  WAVY DRYLINE WAS EVIDENT
FROM SRN SK ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS...WRN SANDHILLS OF NEB...WRN KS...AND
N-S SEGMENT OF TX/NM BORDER...SWD ACROSS TX BIG BEND REGION.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES TO NC/VA TIDEWATER...
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED/CLUSTERED TSTMS PERSIST ACROSS BROAD
SWATH FROM NRN WI AND PORTIONS UPPER MI...LOWER MI...LE...AND
OH...TO NERN NC.  ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY SELY
THROUGH EVENING WITH SLOW WEAKENING OF BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
EXPECTED OVERALL.  AN ISOLATED DAMAGING TSTM GUST WITH WINDS APCHG
SVR LIMITS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE FROM WI AND LOWER MI TO NERN
NC...WITHIN BROAD PLUME OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CAN SUPPORT
SUBSTANTIAL WATER LOADING IN DOWNDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...WITH GRADUAL
DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND GROWING COVERAGE OF OUTFLOWS EACH ACTING TO
STABILIZE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS THIS SWATH...SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME TOO ISOLATED AND UNFOCUSED TO
WARRANT CONTINUATION OF AOA 5%/MRGL CATEGORICAL DESIGNATIONS.

...AZ...SRN ROCKIES...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WERE EVIDENT OVER ROUGHLY ERN
1/2 OF AZ...MUCH OF NM EXCEPT SERN PLAINS...AND PORTIONS WRN/SRN CO.
 MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH HEATING OF
HIGHER TERRAIN...AMIDST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINIMAL
LATE-AFTN MLCINH.  AVBL/OBSERVED RAOBS OVER THIS REGION DEPICT
FAVORABLY DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STG
GUSTS...BUT ALSO...ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER DRYNESS THAT ONLY A FEW DEG
F SFC COOLING IS NEEDED IN MOST INSTANCES TO ERADICATE MOST MLCAPE
PRESENT.  WHILE A DAMAGING GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT...RISK IS TOO
ISOLATED/UNFOCUSED TO PLACE ANY DEFINITIVE CATEGORICAL AREAS.

..EDWARDS.. 09/03/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 030058
SWODY1
SPC AC 030056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE VIRGINIA/NORTH
CAROLINA TIDEWATER REGION...AND ALSO...OVER PARTS OF ARIZONA AND THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.  SEVERE-WIND POTENTIAL LOOKS TOO ISOLATED AND POORLY
FOCUSED FOR ANY RISK AREAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY TROUGHING
OVER PAC COAST REGION...EXTENDING SWD FROM CYCLONE OVER BC...AND
DOWNSTREAM RIGS FROM SRN PLAINS NNEWD ACROSS HUDSON BAY.  DOWNSTREAM
FROM THAT RIDGE...THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY...
1.  OVER WI...WRN LOWER MI AND WRN LS...AND FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY
ESEWD ACROSS UPPER MI AND NRN LM THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.
2.  OVER VA...FCST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND MOVE SEWD OFF ATLC
COAST NEAR HAMPTON ROADS OVERNIGHT.
3.  PERSISTENT...ELONGATED...QUASISTATIONARY CYCLONIC-SHEAR ZONE
FROM BAY OF CAMPECHE NWD ACROSS WRN GULF THEN NEWD OVER MID SOUTH TO
LOWER OH VALLEY.  SEVERAL EMBEDDED/MESOSCALE VORTICES WERE
APPARENT...THOUGH OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
PRESENT LOCATION/ORIENTATION THROUGH 12Z.

AT SFC...NEBULOUS PATTERN WAS APPARENT AT 00Z OVER MOST OF
CONUS...DOMINATED BY MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS WEAK LOWS...TROUGHS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  EXCEPTIONS INCLUDED QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL
ZONE FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI WWD THROUGH WEAK LOW OVER SRN WI/MN
BORDER AREA...THEN NWWD ACROSS NWRN MN.  WAVY DRYLINE WAS EVIDENT
FROM SRN SK ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS...WRN SANDHILLS OF NEB...WRN KS...AND
N-S SEGMENT OF TX/NM BORDER...SWD ACROSS TX BIG BEND REGION.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES TO NC/VA TIDEWATER...
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED/CLUSTERED TSTMS PERSIST ACROSS BROAD
SWATH FROM NRN WI AND PORTIONS UPPER MI...LOWER MI...LE...AND
OH...TO NERN NC.  ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY SELY
THROUGH EVENING WITH SLOW WEAKENING OF BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
EXPECTED OVERALL.  AN ISOLATED DAMAGING TSTM GUST WITH WINDS APCHG
SVR LIMITS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE FROM WI AND LOWER MI TO NERN
NC...WITHIN BROAD PLUME OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CAN SUPPORT
SUBSTANTIAL WATER LOADING IN DOWNDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...WITH GRADUAL
DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND GROWING COVERAGE OF OUTFLOWS EACH ACTING TO
STABILIZE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS THIS SWATH...SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME TOO ISOLATED AND UNFOCUSED TO
WARRANT CONTINUATION OF AOA 5%/MRGL CATEGORICAL DESIGNATIONS.

...AZ...SRN ROCKIES...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WERE EVIDENT OVER ROUGHLY ERN
1/2 OF AZ...MUCH OF NM EXCEPT SERN PLAINS...AND PORTIONS WRN/SRN CO.
 MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH HEATING OF
HIGHER TERRAIN...AMIDST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINIMAL
LATE-AFTN MLCINH.  AVBL/OBSERVED RAOBS OVER THIS REGION DEPICT
FAVORABLY DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STG
GUSTS...BUT ALSO...ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER DRYNESS THAT ONLY A FEW DEG
F SFC COOLING IS NEEDED IN MOST INSTANCES TO ERADICATE MOST MLCAPE
PRESENT.  WHILE A DAMAGING GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT...RISK IS TOO
ISOLATED/UNFOCUSED TO PLACE ANY DEFINITIVE CATEGORICAL AREAS.

..EDWARDS.. 09/03/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 030058
SWODY1
SPC AC 030056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE VIRGINIA/NORTH
CAROLINA TIDEWATER REGION...AND ALSO...OVER PARTS OF ARIZONA AND THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.  SEVERE-WIND POTENTIAL LOOKS TOO ISOLATED AND POORLY
FOCUSED FOR ANY RISK AREAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY TROUGHING
OVER PAC COAST REGION...EXTENDING SWD FROM CYCLONE OVER BC...AND
DOWNSTREAM RIGS FROM SRN PLAINS NNEWD ACROSS HUDSON BAY.  DOWNSTREAM
FROM THAT RIDGE...THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY...
1.  OVER WI...WRN LOWER MI AND WRN LS...AND FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY
ESEWD ACROSS UPPER MI AND NRN LM THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.
2.  OVER VA...FCST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND MOVE SEWD OFF ATLC
COAST NEAR HAMPTON ROADS OVERNIGHT.
3.  PERSISTENT...ELONGATED...QUASISTATIONARY CYCLONIC-SHEAR ZONE
FROM BAY OF CAMPECHE NWD ACROSS WRN GULF THEN NEWD OVER MID SOUTH TO
LOWER OH VALLEY.  SEVERAL EMBEDDED/MESOSCALE VORTICES WERE
APPARENT...THOUGH OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
PRESENT LOCATION/ORIENTATION THROUGH 12Z.

AT SFC...NEBULOUS PATTERN WAS APPARENT AT 00Z OVER MOST OF
CONUS...DOMINATED BY MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS WEAK LOWS...TROUGHS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  EXCEPTIONS INCLUDED QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL
ZONE FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI WWD THROUGH WEAK LOW OVER SRN WI/MN
BORDER AREA...THEN NWWD ACROSS NWRN MN.  WAVY DRYLINE WAS EVIDENT
FROM SRN SK ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS...WRN SANDHILLS OF NEB...WRN KS...AND
N-S SEGMENT OF TX/NM BORDER...SWD ACROSS TX BIG BEND REGION.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES TO NC/VA TIDEWATER...
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED/CLUSTERED TSTMS PERSIST ACROSS BROAD
SWATH FROM NRN WI AND PORTIONS UPPER MI...LOWER MI...LE...AND
OH...TO NERN NC.  ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY SELY
THROUGH EVENING WITH SLOW WEAKENING OF BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
EXPECTED OVERALL.  AN ISOLATED DAMAGING TSTM GUST WITH WINDS APCHG
SVR LIMITS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE FROM WI AND LOWER MI TO NERN
NC...WITHIN BROAD PLUME OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CAN SUPPORT
SUBSTANTIAL WATER LOADING IN DOWNDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...WITH GRADUAL
DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND GROWING COVERAGE OF OUTFLOWS EACH ACTING TO
STABILIZE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS THIS SWATH...SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME TOO ISOLATED AND UNFOCUSED TO
WARRANT CONTINUATION OF AOA 5%/MRGL CATEGORICAL DESIGNATIONS.

...AZ...SRN ROCKIES...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WERE EVIDENT OVER ROUGHLY ERN
1/2 OF AZ...MUCH OF NM EXCEPT SERN PLAINS...AND PORTIONS WRN/SRN CO.
 MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH HEATING OF
HIGHER TERRAIN...AMIDST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINIMAL
LATE-AFTN MLCINH.  AVBL/OBSERVED RAOBS OVER THIS REGION DEPICT
FAVORABLY DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STG
GUSTS...BUT ALSO...ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER DRYNESS THAT ONLY A FEW DEG
F SFC COOLING IS NEEDED IN MOST INSTANCES TO ERADICATE MOST MLCAPE
PRESENT.  WHILE A DAMAGING GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT...RISK IS TOO
ISOLATED/UNFOCUSED TO PLACE ANY DEFINITIVE CATEGORICAL AREAS.

..EDWARDS.. 09/03/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 030058
SWODY1
SPC AC 030056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE VIRGINIA/NORTH
CAROLINA TIDEWATER REGION...AND ALSO...OVER PARTS OF ARIZONA AND THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT.  SEVERE-WIND POTENTIAL LOOKS TOO ISOLATED AND POORLY
FOCUSED FOR ANY RISK AREAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY TROUGHING
OVER PAC COAST REGION...EXTENDING SWD FROM CYCLONE OVER BC...AND
DOWNSTREAM RIGS FROM SRN PLAINS NNEWD ACROSS HUDSON BAY.  DOWNSTREAM
FROM THAT RIDGE...THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE NOTED IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY...
1.  OVER WI...WRN LOWER MI AND WRN LS...AND FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY
ESEWD ACROSS UPPER MI AND NRN LM THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.
2.  OVER VA...FCST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND MOVE SEWD OFF ATLC
COAST NEAR HAMPTON ROADS OVERNIGHT.
3.  PERSISTENT...ELONGATED...QUASISTATIONARY CYCLONIC-SHEAR ZONE
FROM BAY OF CAMPECHE NWD ACROSS WRN GULF THEN NEWD OVER MID SOUTH TO
LOWER OH VALLEY.  SEVERAL EMBEDDED/MESOSCALE VORTICES WERE
APPARENT...THOUGH OVERALL SYNOPTIC FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
PRESENT LOCATION/ORIENTATION THROUGH 12Z.

AT SFC...NEBULOUS PATTERN WAS APPARENT AT 00Z OVER MOST OF
CONUS...DOMINATED BY MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS WEAK LOWS...TROUGHS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  EXCEPTIONS INCLUDED QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL
ZONE FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI WWD THROUGH WEAK LOW OVER SRN WI/MN
BORDER AREA...THEN NWWD ACROSS NWRN MN.  WAVY DRYLINE WAS EVIDENT
FROM SRN SK ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS...WRN SANDHILLS OF NEB...WRN KS...AND
N-S SEGMENT OF TX/NM BORDER...SWD ACROSS TX BIG BEND REGION.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES TO NC/VA TIDEWATER...
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED/CLUSTERED TSTMS PERSIST ACROSS BROAD
SWATH FROM NRN WI AND PORTIONS UPPER MI...LOWER MI...LE...AND
OH...TO NERN NC.  ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY SELY
THROUGH EVENING WITH SLOW WEAKENING OF BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
EXPECTED OVERALL.  AN ISOLATED DAMAGING TSTM GUST WITH WINDS APCHG
SVR LIMITS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE FROM WI AND LOWER MI TO NERN
NC...WITHIN BROAD PLUME OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT CAN SUPPORT
SUBSTANTIAL WATER LOADING IN DOWNDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...WITH GRADUAL
DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND GROWING COVERAGE OF OUTFLOWS EACH ACTING TO
STABILIZE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS THIS SWATH...SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME TOO ISOLATED AND UNFOCUSED TO
WARRANT CONTINUATION OF AOA 5%/MRGL CATEGORICAL DESIGNATIONS.

...AZ...SRN ROCKIES...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WERE EVIDENT OVER ROUGHLY ERN
1/2 OF AZ...MUCH OF NM EXCEPT SERN PLAINS...AND PORTIONS WRN/SRN CO.
 MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH HEATING OF
HIGHER TERRAIN...AMIDST FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINIMAL
LATE-AFTN MLCINH.  AVBL/OBSERVED RAOBS OVER THIS REGION DEPICT
FAVORABLY DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STG
GUSTS...BUT ALSO...ENOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER DRYNESS THAT ONLY A FEW DEG
F SFC COOLING IS NEEDED IN MOST INSTANCES TO ERADICATE MOST MLCAPE
PRESENT.  WHILE A DAMAGING GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT...RISK IS TOO
ISOLATED/UNFOCUSED TO PLACE ANY DEFINITIVE CATEGORICAL AREAS.

..EDWARDS.. 09/03/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 021935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021935
VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-022100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV...MD PANHANDLE...CNTRL/ERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021935Z - 022100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL. MINIMAL SVR COVERAGE AND A GENERALLY MARGINAL THREAT WILL
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS GRADUALLY INCREASING TSTM
COVERAGE AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CNTRL WV
AND INTO NRN VA. MID-LEVEL LAPSES RATES ARE POOR -- LESS THAN 6 DEG
C PER KM BASED ON THE RECENT MESOANALYSIS -- BUT WARM SURFACE
CONDITIONS AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/ ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. LATEST MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATES MLCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. A VERY
MODEST INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WINDS IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH BUT EVEN WITH THIS INCREASE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LACK OF SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE STORM ORGANIZATION
AND TEMPER THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN
THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS RESULTING FROM STORM MERGERS AND/OR QUICK
DEVELOPMENT ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY RESULT SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SOME HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 09/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   37887996 38518005 39127981 39457941 39647919 39717888
            39727793 39697775 39477730 39357718 38297645 37747630
            37217656 36887697 36657745 36697826 36847902 37487970
            37887996






000
ACUS11 KWNS 021935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021935
VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-022100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV...MD PANHANDLE...CNTRL/ERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021935Z - 022100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL. MINIMAL SVR COVERAGE AND A GENERALLY MARGINAL THREAT WILL
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS GRADUALLY INCREASING TSTM
COVERAGE AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CNTRL WV
AND INTO NRN VA. MID-LEVEL LAPSES RATES ARE POOR -- LESS THAN 6 DEG
C PER KM BASED ON THE RECENT MESOANALYSIS -- BUT WARM SURFACE
CONDITIONS AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/ ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. LATEST MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATES MLCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. A VERY
MODEST INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WINDS IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH BUT EVEN WITH THIS INCREASE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LACK OF SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE STORM ORGANIZATION
AND TEMPER THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN
THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS RESULTING FROM STORM MERGERS AND/OR QUICK
DEVELOPMENT ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY RESULT SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SOME HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 09/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   37887996 38518005 39127981 39457941 39647919 39717888
            39727793 39697775 39477730 39357718 38297645 37747630
            37217656 36887697 36657745 36697826 36847902 37487970
            37887996





000
ACUS01 KWNS 021929
SWODY1
SPC AC 021928

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WI INTO SRN UPPER MI...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF VA AND SOME
SURROUNDING AREAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. OTHER ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ARE LIKELY ACROSS VIRGINIA AND
VICINITY.

...WI/MI...
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FEATURE. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756.

...VIRGINIA AREA...
A COOL POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COMBINED WITH
STRONG HEATING HAS RESULTED IN OVER 2000 J/KG MUCAPE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 1.75 INCHES. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS
WEAK...THE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD
FAVOR MARGINAL HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE
STORMS CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS VA...AND PERHAPS INTO NERN NC BY
EVENING. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757.

..JEWELL.. 09/02/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE
PAC NW WITHIN THE PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS.  OTHER LOWER-AMPLITUDE WAVES
IN MUCH WEAKER MEAN FLOW WILL DRIFT SEWD OVER OH/WV...AND MEANDER
OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.  A SOMEWHAT BETTER-DEFINED WAVE WILL
CROSS WI/WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AZ...THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF DAMAGING WIND
PROBABILITIES AT THIS POINT.

...CENTRAL/NE WI AND PARTS OF UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING NEAR THE
MI/WI BORDER...ON THE N EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR AND IN ADVANCE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW WI.  THE ONGOING STORMS WILL POSE A
RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION LIKELY WEAKENS OVER NRN LAKE
MI.  FARTHER W...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE E EDGE OF THE THICKER
CLOUDS AND WEAK ASCENT COULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/NE WI.  THE MODIFIED 12Z
GRB SOUNDING SUPPORTS MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR THAT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND AN
ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS/LARGE HAIL.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 021929
SWODY1
SPC AC 021928

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WI INTO SRN UPPER MI...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF VA AND SOME
SURROUNDING AREAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. OTHER ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ARE LIKELY ACROSS VIRGINIA AND
VICINITY.

...WI/MI...
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FEATURE. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756.

...VIRGINIA AREA...
A COOL POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COMBINED WITH
STRONG HEATING HAS RESULTED IN OVER 2000 J/KG MUCAPE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 1.75 INCHES. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS
WEAK...THE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD
FAVOR MARGINAL HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE
STORMS CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS VA...AND PERHAPS INTO NERN NC BY
EVENING. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757.

..JEWELL.. 09/02/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE
PAC NW WITHIN THE PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS.  OTHER LOWER-AMPLITUDE WAVES
IN MUCH WEAKER MEAN FLOW WILL DRIFT SEWD OVER OH/WV...AND MEANDER
OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.  A SOMEWHAT BETTER-DEFINED WAVE WILL
CROSS WI/WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AZ...THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF DAMAGING WIND
PROBABILITIES AT THIS POINT.

...CENTRAL/NE WI AND PARTS OF UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING NEAR THE
MI/WI BORDER...ON THE N EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR AND IN ADVANCE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW WI.  THE ONGOING STORMS WILL POSE A
RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION LIKELY WEAKENS OVER NRN LAKE
MI.  FARTHER W...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE E EDGE OF THE THICKER
CLOUDS AND WEAK ASCENT COULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/NE WI.  THE MODIFIED 12Z
GRB SOUNDING SUPPORTS MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR THAT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND AN
ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS/LARGE HAIL.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 021929
SWODY1
SPC AC 021928

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WI INTO SRN UPPER MI...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF VA AND SOME
SURROUNDING AREAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. OTHER ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ARE LIKELY ACROSS VIRGINIA AND
VICINITY.

...WI/MI...
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FEATURE. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756.

...VIRGINIA AREA...
A COOL POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COMBINED WITH
STRONG HEATING HAS RESULTED IN OVER 2000 J/KG MUCAPE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 1.75 INCHES. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS
WEAK...THE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD
FAVOR MARGINAL HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE
STORMS CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS VA...AND PERHAPS INTO NERN NC BY
EVENING. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757.

..JEWELL.. 09/02/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE
PAC NW WITHIN THE PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS.  OTHER LOWER-AMPLITUDE WAVES
IN MUCH WEAKER MEAN FLOW WILL DRIFT SEWD OVER OH/WV...AND MEANDER
OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.  A SOMEWHAT BETTER-DEFINED WAVE WILL
CROSS WI/WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AZ...THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF DAMAGING WIND
PROBABILITIES AT THIS POINT.

...CENTRAL/NE WI AND PARTS OF UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING NEAR THE
MI/WI BORDER...ON THE N EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR AND IN ADVANCE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW WI.  THE ONGOING STORMS WILL POSE A
RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION LIKELY WEAKENS OVER NRN LAKE
MI.  FARTHER W...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE E EDGE OF THE THICKER
CLOUDS AND WEAK ASCENT COULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/NE WI.  THE MODIFIED 12Z
GRB SOUNDING SUPPORTS MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR THAT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND AN
ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS/LARGE HAIL.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 021929
SWODY1
SPC AC 021928

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WI INTO SRN UPPER MI...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF VA AND SOME
SURROUNDING AREAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN. OTHER ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ARE LIKELY ACROSS VIRGINIA AND
VICINITY.

...WI/MI...
A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
FEATURE. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756.

...VIRGINIA AREA...
A COOL POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT COMBINED WITH
STRONG HEATING HAS RESULTED IN OVER 2000 J/KG MUCAPE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 1.75 INCHES. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS
WEAK...THE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD
FAVOR MARGINAL HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE
STORMS CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS VA...AND PERHAPS INTO NERN NC BY
EVENING. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757.

..JEWELL.. 09/02/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE
PAC NW WITHIN THE PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS.  OTHER LOWER-AMPLITUDE WAVES
IN MUCH WEAKER MEAN FLOW WILL DRIFT SEWD OVER OH/WV...AND MEANDER
OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.  A SOMEWHAT BETTER-DEFINED WAVE WILL
CROSS WI/WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AZ...THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF DAMAGING WIND
PROBABILITIES AT THIS POINT.

...CENTRAL/NE WI AND PARTS OF UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING NEAR THE
MI/WI BORDER...ON THE N EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR AND IN ADVANCE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW WI.  THE ONGOING STORMS WILL POSE A
RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION LIKELY WEAKENS OVER NRN LAKE
MI.  FARTHER W...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE E EDGE OF THE THICKER
CLOUDS AND WEAK ASCENT COULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/NE WI.  THE MODIFIED 12Z
GRB SOUNDING SUPPORTS MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR THAT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND AN
ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS/LARGE HAIL.






000
ACUS11 KWNS 021902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021902
WIZ000-MIZ000-022030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021902Z - 022030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON CAPABLE
OF AN ISOLD HAIL/WIND THREAT.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 19Z SHOWS A BUBBLING
CU FIELD OVER CNTRL WI WHERE A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF A
WEST-EAST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER-DAY STORMS.  THE
AIRMASS S OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WHEN MODIFYING
THE 12Z GRB RAOB WITH AN UPPER 80S TEMP AND UPPER 60S DEWPOINT.  12Z
SUBJECTIVE UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE MOVING
INTO W-CNTRL WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE COUPLED WITH A WEAKENING CAP RESULTS IN
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...A FEW OF THE STRONGER MULTICELLS MAY
POSE AN INTERMITTENT/ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT.  A MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK WILL BE NEGATED BY WEAK WLY DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW WHICH WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 09/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...ARX...

LAT...LON   44459098 44998995 45248825 45088717 44398734 44138778
            44168902 44459098





000
ACUS11 KWNS 021902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021902
WIZ000-MIZ000-022030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021902Z - 022030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON CAPABLE
OF AN ISOLD HAIL/WIND THREAT.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 19Z SHOWS A BUBBLING
CU FIELD OVER CNTRL WI WHERE A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF A
WEST-EAST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER-DAY STORMS.  THE
AIRMASS S OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WHEN MODIFYING
THE 12Z GRB RAOB WITH AN UPPER 80S TEMP AND UPPER 60S DEWPOINT.  12Z
SUBJECTIVE UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE MOVING
INTO W-CNTRL WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE COUPLED WITH A WEAKENING CAP RESULTS IN
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...A FEW OF THE STRONGER MULTICELLS MAY
POSE AN INTERMITTENT/ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT.  A MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK WILL BE NEGATED BY WEAK WLY DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW WHICH WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 09/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...ARX...

LAT...LON   44459098 44998995 45248825 45088717 44398734 44138778
            44168902 44459098






000
ACUS11 KWNS 021902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021902
WIZ000-MIZ000-022030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021902Z - 022030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON CAPABLE
OF AN ISOLD HAIL/WIND THREAT.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 19Z SHOWS A BUBBLING
CU FIELD OVER CNTRL WI WHERE A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF A
WEST-EAST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER-DAY STORMS.  THE
AIRMASS S OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WHEN MODIFYING
THE 12Z GRB RAOB WITH AN UPPER 80S TEMP AND UPPER 60S DEWPOINT.  12Z
SUBJECTIVE UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE MOVING
INTO W-CNTRL WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE COUPLED WITH A WEAKENING CAP RESULTS IN
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...A FEW OF THE STRONGER MULTICELLS MAY
POSE AN INTERMITTENT/ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT.  A MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK WILL BE NEGATED BY WEAK WLY DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW WHICH WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 09/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...ARX...

LAT...LON   44459098 44998995 45248825 45088717 44398734 44138778
            44168902 44459098





000
ACUS11 KWNS 021902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021902
WIZ000-MIZ000-022030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NERN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021902Z - 022030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON CAPABLE
OF AN ISOLD HAIL/WIND THREAT.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 19Z SHOWS A BUBBLING
CU FIELD OVER CNTRL WI WHERE A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF A
WEST-EAST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER-DAY STORMS.  THE
AIRMASS S OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WHEN MODIFYING
THE 12Z GRB RAOB WITH AN UPPER 80S TEMP AND UPPER 60S DEWPOINT.  12Z
SUBJECTIVE UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE MOVING
INTO W-CNTRL WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE COUPLED WITH A WEAKENING CAP RESULTS IN
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...A FEW OF THE STRONGER MULTICELLS MAY
POSE AN INTERMITTENT/ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT.  A MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK WILL BE NEGATED BY WEAK WLY DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW WHICH WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 09/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...ARX...

LAT...LON   44459098 44998995 45248825 45088717 44398734 44138778
            44168902 44459098






000
ACUS02 KWNS 021701
SWODY2
SPC AC 021701

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
STATES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST
STATES.

...SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING NWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES
WITH UPPER LOW SINKING SWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. A SFC LOW WILL
EXIST OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO NRN
WY AT 00Z.

THE PRESENCE OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE
POOL OF INSTABILITY FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS
AND ACROSS MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY INACTIVE DUE TO A LACK
OF FORCING FOR STORMS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS MANITOBA WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY WITH STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN N OF
THE U.S. BORDER.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SERN
STATES. A RELATIVE ZONE OF STRONG STORM POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FROM SRN
WI/NRN IL INTO LOWER MI...INDIANA AND OH WHERE A COOL POCKET ALOFT
WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION AND UPDRAFT VIGOR DURING PEAK HEATING.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK FLOW PATTERN AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
LARGELY FAVOR ONLY SUB-SEVERE STORMS.

..JEWELL.. 09/02/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 021701
SWODY2
SPC AC 021701

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
STATES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST
STATES.

...SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING NWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES
WITH UPPER LOW SINKING SWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. A SFC LOW WILL
EXIST OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO NRN
WY AT 00Z.

THE PRESENCE OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE
POOL OF INSTABILITY FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS
AND ACROSS MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY INACTIVE DUE TO A LACK
OF FORCING FOR STORMS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS MANITOBA WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY WITH STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN N OF
THE U.S. BORDER.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SERN
STATES. A RELATIVE ZONE OF STRONG STORM POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FROM SRN
WI/NRN IL INTO LOWER MI...INDIANA AND OH WHERE A COOL POCKET ALOFT
WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION AND UPDRAFT VIGOR DURING PEAK HEATING.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK FLOW PATTERN AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
LARGELY FAVOR ONLY SUB-SEVERE STORMS.

..JEWELL.. 09/02/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 021701
SWODY2
SPC AC 021701

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
STATES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST
STATES.

...SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING NWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES
WITH UPPER LOW SINKING SWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. A SFC LOW WILL
EXIST OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO NRN
WY AT 00Z.

THE PRESENCE OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE
POOL OF INSTABILITY FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS
AND ACROSS MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY INACTIVE DUE TO A LACK
OF FORCING FOR STORMS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS MANITOBA WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY WITH STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN N OF
THE U.S. BORDER.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SERN
STATES. A RELATIVE ZONE OF STRONG STORM POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FROM SRN
WI/NRN IL INTO LOWER MI...INDIANA AND OH WHERE A COOL POCKET ALOFT
WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION AND UPDRAFT VIGOR DURING PEAK HEATING.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK FLOW PATTERN AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
LARGELY FAVOR ONLY SUB-SEVERE STORMS.

..JEWELL.. 09/02/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 021701
SWODY2
SPC AC 021701

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
STATES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST
STATES.

...SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING NWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES
WITH UPPER LOW SINKING SWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. A SFC LOW WILL
EXIST OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO NRN
WY AT 00Z.

THE PRESENCE OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE
POOL OF INSTABILITY FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS
AND ACROSS MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THIS
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY INACTIVE DUE TO A LACK
OF FORCING FOR STORMS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS MANITOBA WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY WITH STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN N OF
THE U.S. BORDER.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM THE GREAT LAKES
ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SERN
STATES. A RELATIVE ZONE OF STRONG STORM POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FROM SRN
WI/NRN IL INTO LOWER MI...INDIANA AND OH WHERE A COOL POCKET ALOFT
WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION AND UPDRAFT VIGOR DURING PEAK HEATING.
HOWEVER...THE WEAK FLOW PATTERN AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
LARGELY FAVOR ONLY SUB-SEVERE STORMS.

..JEWELL.. 09/02/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 021629
SWODY1
SPC AC 021628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL/NE WI AND PARTS OF UPPER MI...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE
PAC NW WITHIN THE PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS.  OTHER LOWER-AMPLITUDE WAVES
IN MUCH WEAKER MEAN FLOW WILL DRIFT SEWD OVER OH/WV...AND MEANDER
OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.  A SOMEWHAT BETTER-DEFINED WAVE WILL
CROSS WI/WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AZ...THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF DAMAGING WIND
PROBABILITIES AT THIS POINT.

...CENTRAL/NE WI AND PARTS OF UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING NEAR THE
MI/WI BORDER...ON THE N EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR AND IN ADVANCE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW WI.  THE ONGOING STORMS WILL POSE A
RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION LIKELY WEAKENS OVER NRN LAKE
MI.  FARTHER W...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE E EDGE OF THE THICKER
CLOUDS AND WEAK ASCENT COULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/NE WI.  THE MODIFIED 12Z
GRB SOUNDING SUPPORTS MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR THAT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND AN
ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS/LARGE HAIL.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 09/02/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 021629
SWODY1
SPC AC 021628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT WED SEP 02 2015

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL/NE WI AND PARTS OF UPPER MI...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF UPPER MICHIGAN.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE
PAC NW WITHIN THE PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS.  OTHER LOWER-AMPLITUDE WAVES
IN MUCH WEAKER MEAN FLOW WILL DRIFT SEWD OVER OH/WV...AND MEANDER
OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.  A SOMEWHAT BETTER-DEFINED WAVE WILL
CROSS WI/WRN UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AZ...THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF DAMAGING WIND
PROBABILITIES AT THIS POINT.

...CENTRAL/NE WI AND PARTS OF UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING NEAR THE
MI/WI BORDER...ON THE N EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR AND IN ADVANCE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW WI.  THE ONGOING STORMS WILL POSE A
RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FOR
ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION LIKELY WEAKENS OVER NRN LAKE
MI.  FARTHER W...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE E EDGE OF THE THICKER
CLOUDS AND WEAK ASCENT COULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/NE WI.  THE MODIFIED 12Z
GRB SOUNDING SUPPORTS MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR THAT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND AN
ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS/LARGE HAIL.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 09/02/2015





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