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000
ACUS11 KWNS 270230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270229
TXZ000-270400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0475
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0929 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL TEXAS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 121...

VALID 270229Z - 270400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 121 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR STRONG...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WITH AN EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX BETWEEN 03-05Z.  A DISCRETE SUPERCELL
MAY ALSO PERSIST WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR TORNADOES...MAINLY
SOUTHWEST TO JUST SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX.

DISCUSSION...INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING AN ISOLATED
DISCRETE SUPERCELL OR TWO...PERSISTS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...AIDED BY FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSE MID-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
APPEARS TO BE STRONG WITHIN A ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE ONGOING
CONVECTION EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE METROPLEX.  THIS MAY PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH...AND THE FOCUS FOR
EASTWARD ACCELERATION AS THIS OCCURS.

GIVEN THE SIZABLE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE DEW POINT
SPREADS EVIDENT IN THE 27/00Z FTW RAOB...HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING
AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THIS WILL BE ENHANCED
FURTHER BY THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PRESENT....ASSOCIATED WITH NEAR
SURFACE EASTERLIES VEERING TO STRONG WESTERLIES AT MID/UPPER LEVELS.


IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH LONGER THE DISCRETE SUPERCELL...NOW EAST OF
STEPHENVILLE...WILL PERSIST.  BUT IT CURRENTLY SEEMS LIKELY TO
GENERALLY PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BULK OF THE
METROPLEX...ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE.

..KERR.. 04/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

LAT...LON   33059769 33209714 33189613 32739574 32299589 32119652
            32059728 32339787 32719792 33059769





000
ACUS11 KWNS 270230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270229
TXZ000-270400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0475
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0929 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL TEXAS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 121...

VALID 270229Z - 270400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 121 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR STRONG...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WITH AN EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX BETWEEN 03-05Z.  A DISCRETE SUPERCELL
MAY ALSO PERSIST WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR TORNADOES...MAINLY
SOUTHWEST TO JUST SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX.

DISCUSSION...INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING AN ISOLATED
DISCRETE SUPERCELL OR TWO...PERSISTS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...AIDED BY FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSE MID-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
APPEARS TO BE STRONG WITHIN A ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE ONGOING
CONVECTION EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE METROPLEX.  THIS MAY PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH...AND THE FOCUS FOR
EASTWARD ACCELERATION AS THIS OCCURS.

GIVEN THE SIZABLE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE DEW POINT
SPREADS EVIDENT IN THE 27/00Z FTW RAOB...HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING
AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THIS WILL BE ENHANCED
FURTHER BY THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PRESENT....ASSOCIATED WITH NEAR
SURFACE EASTERLIES VEERING TO STRONG WESTERLIES AT MID/UPPER LEVELS.


IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH LONGER THE DISCRETE SUPERCELL...NOW EAST OF
STEPHENVILLE...WILL PERSIST.  BUT IT CURRENTLY SEEMS LIKELY TO
GENERALLY PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BULK OF THE
METROPLEX...ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE.

..KERR.. 04/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

LAT...LON   33059769 33209714 33189613 32739574 32299589 32119652
            32059728 32339787 32719792 33059769





000
ACUS11 KWNS 270230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270229
TXZ000-270400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0475
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0929 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL TEXAS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 121...

VALID 270229Z - 270400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 121 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR STRONG...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WITH AN EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STORMS AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX BETWEEN 03-05Z.  A DISCRETE SUPERCELL
MAY ALSO PERSIST WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR TORNADOES...MAINLY
SOUTHWEST TO JUST SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX.

DISCUSSION...INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING AN ISOLATED
DISCRETE SUPERCELL OR TWO...PERSISTS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...AIDED BY FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A CLOSE MID-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
APPEARS TO BE STRONG WITHIN A ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE ONGOING
CONVECTION EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE METROPLEX.  THIS MAY PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH...AND THE FOCUS FOR
EASTWARD ACCELERATION AS THIS OCCURS.

GIVEN THE SIZABLE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE DEW POINT
SPREADS EVIDENT IN THE 27/00Z FTW RAOB...HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING
AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THIS WILL BE ENHANCED
FURTHER BY THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PRESENT....ASSOCIATED WITH NEAR
SURFACE EASTERLIES VEERING TO STRONG WESTERLIES AT MID/UPPER LEVELS.


IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH LONGER THE DISCRETE SUPERCELL...NOW EAST OF
STEPHENVILLE...WILL PERSIST.  BUT IT CURRENTLY SEEMS LIKELY TO
GENERALLY PASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BULK OF THE
METROPLEX...ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE.

..KERR.. 04/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

LAT...LON   33059769 33209714 33189613 32739574 32299589 32119652
            32059728 32339787 32719792 33059769






000
ACUS01 KWNS 270101
SWODY1
SPC AC 270059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF CNTRL...NORTH...AND
EAST TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR FAR SRN OK...WRN LA...AND
CNTRL AND EAST TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR CNTRL OK AND THE ARKLATEX
SWD INTO S TX...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH THE STORMS SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY.  VERY LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

...SRN PLAINS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE ONGOING FROM CNTRL TX NWWD INTO THE
TX PANHANDLE. GREATEST TORNADO RISK APPEARS TO REMAIN FOCUSED OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL TX...WHERE SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING HAVE DEVELOPED AND
PROGRESSED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RICHER MOISTURE /MID-UPPER 60S
SFC DEWPOINTS/ CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THIS AREA FROM THE S...AND
AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR A TORNADO
THREAT THIS EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA THE PACIFIC FRONT OVERTAKING THE
DRYLINE...AND DCVA ACCOMPANYING THE SRN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH...WILL
PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS...WHICH COULD STRETCH AS FAR S AS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO
DMGG WINDS...ALTHOUGH SPORADIC LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
LINE-EMBEDDED TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE MCS SHOULD MOVE INTO
WRN LA BY 27/12Z.

..ROGERS.. 04/27/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 270101
SWODY1
SPC AC 270059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF CNTRL...NORTH...AND
EAST TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR FAR SRN OK...WRN LA...AND
CNTRL AND EAST TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR CNTRL OK AND THE ARKLATEX
SWD INTO S TX...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH THE STORMS SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY.  VERY LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

...SRN PLAINS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE ONGOING FROM CNTRL TX NWWD INTO THE
TX PANHANDLE. GREATEST TORNADO RISK APPEARS TO REMAIN FOCUSED OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL TX...WHERE SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING HAVE DEVELOPED AND
PROGRESSED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RICHER MOISTURE /MID-UPPER 60S
SFC DEWPOINTS/ CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THIS AREA FROM THE S...AND
AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR A TORNADO
THREAT THIS EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA THE PACIFIC FRONT OVERTAKING THE
DRYLINE...AND DCVA ACCOMPANYING THE SRN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH...WILL
PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS...WHICH COULD STRETCH AS FAR S AS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO
DMGG WINDS...ALTHOUGH SPORADIC LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
LINE-EMBEDDED TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE MCS SHOULD MOVE INTO
WRN LA BY 27/12Z.

..ROGERS.. 04/27/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 270011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270010
OKZ000-TXZ000-270115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0474
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119...

VALID 270010Z - 270115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 119 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 119...MAINLY FROM NEAR
ABILENE/MINERAL WELLS SOUTHWARD...MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH A NEW
WW BY 01Z.  OTHERWISE...THERE REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH 119...AS
WELL AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 120 MAY NOT NEED NEW WATCH
ISSUANCES AT THE CURRENTLY SCHEDULED 01Z EXPIRATION.

DISCUSSION...STRONGEST 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BECOME
FOCUSED WEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...AND MAY PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS AREA...LARGE-SCALE
FORCING BENEATH DIFLUENT /AND LIKELY DIVERGENT/ UPPER FLOW TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW APPEARS TO BE
CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING TO BEGIN REDUCING
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.  THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL MAY
PERSIST IN INCREASINGLY FEWER STRONGER STORMS ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...ADJACENT NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.  BUT...ANOTHER WATCH ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY
NOT BE NEEDED.

..KERR.. 04/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33089981 33550046 34810126 35710169 35850114 35159863
            34609811 33689810 33099854 33089983 33089981





000
ACUS11 KWNS 270011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270010
OKZ000-TXZ000-270115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0474
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119...

VALID 270010Z - 270115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 119 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 119...MAINLY FROM NEAR
ABILENE/MINERAL WELLS SOUTHWARD...MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH A NEW
WW BY 01Z.  OTHERWISE...THERE REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH 119...AS
WELL AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 120 MAY NOT NEED NEW WATCH
ISSUANCES AT THE CURRENTLY SCHEDULED 01Z EXPIRATION.

DISCUSSION...STRONGEST 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BECOME
FOCUSED WEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...AND MAY PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS AREA...LARGE-SCALE
FORCING BENEATH DIFLUENT /AND LIKELY DIVERGENT/ UPPER FLOW TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW APPEARS TO BE
CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING TO BEGIN REDUCING
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.  THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL MAY
PERSIST IN INCREASINGLY FEWER STRONGER STORMS ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...ADJACENT NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.  BUT...ANOTHER WATCH ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY
NOT BE NEEDED.

..KERR.. 04/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33089981 33550046 34810126 35710169 35850114 35159863
            34609811 33689810 33099854 33089983 33089981





000
ACUS11 KWNS 270011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270010
OKZ000-TXZ000-270115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0474
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119...

VALID 270010Z - 270115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 119 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 119...MAINLY FROM NEAR
ABILENE/MINERAL WELLS SOUTHWARD...MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH A NEW
WW BY 01Z.  OTHERWISE...THERE REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH 119...AS
WELL AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 120 MAY NOT NEED NEW WATCH
ISSUANCES AT THE CURRENTLY SCHEDULED 01Z EXPIRATION.

DISCUSSION...STRONGEST 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BECOME
FOCUSED WEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...AND MAY PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS AREA...LARGE-SCALE
FORCING BENEATH DIFLUENT /AND LIKELY DIVERGENT/ UPPER FLOW TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW APPEARS TO BE
CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING TO BEGIN REDUCING
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.  THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL MAY
PERSIST IN INCREASINGLY FEWER STRONGER STORMS ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...ADJACENT NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.  BUT...ANOTHER WATCH ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY
NOT BE NEEDED.

..KERR.. 04/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33089981 33550046 34810126 35710169 35850114 35159863
            34609811 33689810 33099854 33089983 33089981





000
ACUS11 KWNS 270011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270010
OKZ000-TXZ000-270115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0474
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119...

VALID 270010Z - 270115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 119 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 119...MAINLY FROM NEAR
ABILENE/MINERAL WELLS SOUTHWARD...MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH A NEW
WW BY 01Z.  OTHERWISE...THERE REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH 119...AS
WELL AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 120 MAY NOT NEED NEW WATCH
ISSUANCES AT THE CURRENTLY SCHEDULED 01Z EXPIRATION.

DISCUSSION...STRONGEST 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BECOME
FOCUSED WEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...AND MAY PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS AREA...LARGE-SCALE
FORCING BENEATH DIFLUENT /AND LIKELY DIVERGENT/ UPPER FLOW TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW APPEARS TO BE
CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING TO BEGIN REDUCING
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.  THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL MAY
PERSIST IN INCREASINGLY FEWER STRONGER STORMS ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...ADJACENT NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.  BUT...ANOTHER WATCH ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY
NOT BE NEEDED.

..KERR.. 04/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33089981 33550046 34810126 35710169 35850114 35159863
            34609811 33689810 33099854 33089983 33089981






000
ACUS11 KWNS 270011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270010
OKZ000-TXZ000-270115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0474
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119...

VALID 270010Z - 270115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 119 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 119...MAINLY FROM NEAR
ABILENE/MINERAL WELLS SOUTHWARD...MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH A NEW
WW BY 01Z.  OTHERWISE...THERE REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH 119...AS
WELL AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 120 MAY NOT NEED NEW WATCH
ISSUANCES AT THE CURRENTLY SCHEDULED 01Z EXPIRATION.

DISCUSSION...STRONGEST 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BECOME
FOCUSED WEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...AND MAY PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS AREA...LARGE-SCALE
FORCING BENEATH DIFLUENT /AND LIKELY DIVERGENT/ UPPER FLOW TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW APPEARS TO BE
CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING TO BEGIN REDUCING
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.  THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL MAY
PERSIST IN INCREASINGLY FEWER STRONGER STORMS ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...ADJACENT NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.  BUT...ANOTHER WATCH ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY
NOT BE NEEDED.

..KERR.. 04/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33089981 33550046 34810126 35710169 35850114 35159863
            34609811 33689810 33099854 33089983 33089981






000
ACUS11 KWNS 270011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270010
OKZ000-TXZ000-270115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0474
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
OKLAHOMA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119...

VALID 270010Z - 270115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 119 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 119...MAINLY FROM NEAR
ABILENE/MINERAL WELLS SOUTHWARD...MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH A NEW
WW BY 01Z.  OTHERWISE...THERE REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH 119...AS
WELL AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 120 MAY NOT NEED NEW WATCH
ISSUANCES AT THE CURRENTLY SCHEDULED 01Z EXPIRATION.

DISCUSSION...STRONGEST 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BECOME
FOCUSED WEST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...AND MAY PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS AREA...LARGE-SCALE
FORCING BENEATH DIFLUENT /AND LIKELY DIVERGENT/ UPPER FLOW TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW APPEARS TO BE
CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING TO BEGIN REDUCING
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.  THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL MAY
PERSIST IN INCREASINGLY FEWER STRONGER STORMS ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...ADJACENT NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.  BUT...ANOTHER WATCH ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY
NOT BE NEEDED.

..KERR.. 04/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33089981 33550046 34810126 35710169 35850114 35159863
            34609811 33689810 33099854 33089983 33089981





000
ACUS11 KWNS 262345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262344
TXZ000-270145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262344Z - 270145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASING STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME...WITHIN A CORRIDOR SOUTH OF ONGOING
STORMS NEAR BROWNWOOD...THROUGH THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND ADJACENT RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS RETURNING NORTHWESTWARD ON
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.  THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH DESTABILIZATION BECOMING
MAXIMIZED ALONG AN AXIS OF ONGOING STRONGER SURFACE HEATING INTO THE
90S...FROM NORTHWEST OF DEL RIO TOWARD THE ABILENE AREA.

AS CAPE BECOMES INCREASINGLY LARGE IN THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STEEP LOW AND MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES...POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE.  VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE... INCLUDING THE LATEST RAPID
REFRESH/HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH ...IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS
COULD OCCUR BY THE 01-03Z TIME...AIDED BY INCREASING FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW.  DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH BROADLY CYCLONIC...50-70 KT 500 MB FLOW WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT
STRONGEST ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE...WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SPREAD EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING.

..KERR/KERR.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30910023 31639968 32139945 32139881 30659924 29800074
            30410102 30910023





000
ACUS11 KWNS 262345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262344
TXZ000-270145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262344Z - 270145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASING STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME...WITHIN A CORRIDOR SOUTH OF ONGOING
STORMS NEAR BROWNWOOD...THROUGH THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND ADJACENT RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS RETURNING NORTHWESTWARD ON
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.  THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH DESTABILIZATION BECOMING
MAXIMIZED ALONG AN AXIS OF ONGOING STRONGER SURFACE HEATING INTO THE
90S...FROM NORTHWEST OF DEL RIO TOWARD THE ABILENE AREA.

AS CAPE BECOMES INCREASINGLY LARGE IN THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STEEP LOW AND MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES...POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE.  VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE... INCLUDING THE LATEST RAPID
REFRESH/HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH ...IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS
COULD OCCUR BY THE 01-03Z TIME...AIDED BY INCREASING FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW.  DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH BROADLY CYCLONIC...50-70 KT 500 MB FLOW WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT
STRONGEST ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE...WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SPREAD EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING.

..KERR/KERR.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30910023 31639968 32139945 32139881 30659924 29800074
            30410102 30910023






000
ACUS11 KWNS 262345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262344
TXZ000-270145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262344Z - 270145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASING STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME...WITHIN A CORRIDOR SOUTH OF ONGOING
STORMS NEAR BROWNWOOD...THROUGH THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND ADJACENT RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS RETURNING NORTHWESTWARD ON
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.  THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH DESTABILIZATION BECOMING
MAXIMIZED ALONG AN AXIS OF ONGOING STRONGER SURFACE HEATING INTO THE
90S...FROM NORTHWEST OF DEL RIO TOWARD THE ABILENE AREA.

AS CAPE BECOMES INCREASINGLY LARGE IN THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STEEP LOW AND MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES...POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE.  VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE... INCLUDING THE LATEST RAPID
REFRESH/HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH ...IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS
COULD OCCUR BY THE 01-03Z TIME...AIDED BY INCREASING FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW.  DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH BROADLY CYCLONIC...50-70 KT 500 MB FLOW WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT
STRONGEST ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE...WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SPREAD EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING.

..KERR/KERR.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30910023 31639968 32139945 32139881 30659924 29800074
            30410102 30910023






000
ACUS11 KWNS 262345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262344
TXZ000-270145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262344Z - 270145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASING STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME...WITHIN A CORRIDOR SOUTH OF ONGOING
STORMS NEAR BROWNWOOD...THROUGH THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND ADJACENT RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS RETURNING NORTHWESTWARD ON
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.  THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH DESTABILIZATION BECOMING
MAXIMIZED ALONG AN AXIS OF ONGOING STRONGER SURFACE HEATING INTO THE
90S...FROM NORTHWEST OF DEL RIO TOWARD THE ABILENE AREA.

AS CAPE BECOMES INCREASINGLY LARGE IN THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STEEP LOW AND MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES...POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE.  VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE... INCLUDING THE LATEST RAPID
REFRESH/HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH ...IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS
COULD OCCUR BY THE 01-03Z TIME...AIDED BY INCREASING FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW.  DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH BROADLY CYCLONIC...50-70 KT 500 MB FLOW WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT
STRONGEST ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE...WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SPREAD EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING.

..KERR/KERR.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30910023 31639968 32139945 32139881 30659924 29800074
            30410102 30910023





000
ACUS11 KWNS 262345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262344
TXZ000-270145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262344Z - 270145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASING STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME...WITHIN A CORRIDOR SOUTH OF ONGOING
STORMS NEAR BROWNWOOD...THROUGH THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND ADJACENT RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS RETURNING NORTHWESTWARD ON
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.  THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH DESTABILIZATION BECOMING
MAXIMIZED ALONG AN AXIS OF ONGOING STRONGER SURFACE HEATING INTO THE
90S...FROM NORTHWEST OF DEL RIO TOWARD THE ABILENE AREA.

AS CAPE BECOMES INCREASINGLY LARGE IN THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STEEP LOW AND MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES...POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE.  VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE... INCLUDING THE LATEST RAPID
REFRESH/HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH ...IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS
COULD OCCUR BY THE 01-03Z TIME...AIDED BY INCREASING FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW.  DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH BROADLY CYCLONIC...50-70 KT 500 MB FLOW WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT
STRONGEST ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE...WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SPREAD EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING.

..KERR/KERR.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30910023 31639968 32139945 32139881 30659924 29800074
            30410102 30910023





000
ACUS11 KWNS 262310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262309
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-270015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 262309Z - 270015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS WITH A FEW CONTINUING TO BECOME SEVERE MAY
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PRIMARILY SWRN AR...THOUGH PORTIONS
OF SRN AR AND NRN LA WILL BE MONITORED AS WELL FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SHV WSR-88D SINCE AROUND 21Z INDICATED A FEW
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SWRN AR WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 80S AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTED IN AN
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT.  THESE STORMS FORMED ALONG A WIND-SHIFT
BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM SERN OK THROUGH SWRN AR INTO NRN LA.
MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 45 KT IS
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...AS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.  AN ELY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS AR AND SELY ACROSS LA COMBINED WITH WSWLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL SUSTAIN RELATIVELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS...
AS CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT AREA WSR-88D VWP DATA.  THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SPLITTING STORMS...WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE EXPANDING BEYOND ISOLATED IS LOW AT
THIS TIME...GIVEN A LACK OF MODEL SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN A FEW STORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS SWRN AR INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WIND-SHIFT BOUNDARY AND
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...THE 12Z 4-KM NMM
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AR
AND NRN LA.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33959442 34149382 33739229 32669204 32659310 32969393
            33439419 33959442






000
ACUS11 KWNS 262310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262309
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-270015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 262309Z - 270015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS WITH A FEW CONTINUING TO BECOME SEVERE MAY
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PRIMARILY SWRN AR...THOUGH PORTIONS
OF SRN AR AND NRN LA WILL BE MONITORED AS WELL FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SHV WSR-88D SINCE AROUND 21Z INDICATED A FEW
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SWRN AR WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 80S AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTED IN AN
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT.  THESE STORMS FORMED ALONG A WIND-SHIFT
BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM SERN OK THROUGH SWRN AR INTO NRN LA.
MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 45 KT IS
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...AS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.  AN ELY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS AR AND SELY ACROSS LA COMBINED WITH WSWLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL SUSTAIN RELATIVELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS...
AS CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT AREA WSR-88D VWP DATA.  THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SPLITTING STORMS...WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE EXPANDING BEYOND ISOLATED IS LOW AT
THIS TIME...GIVEN A LACK OF MODEL SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN A FEW STORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS SWRN AR INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WIND-SHIFT BOUNDARY AND
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...THE 12Z 4-KM NMM
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AR
AND NRN LA.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33959442 34149382 33739229 32669204 32659310 32969393
            33439419 33959442





000
ACUS11 KWNS 262310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262309
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-270015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 262309Z - 270015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS WITH A FEW CONTINUING TO BECOME SEVERE MAY
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PRIMARILY SWRN AR...THOUGH PORTIONS
OF SRN AR AND NRN LA WILL BE MONITORED AS WELL FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SHV WSR-88D SINCE AROUND 21Z INDICATED A FEW
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SWRN AR WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 80S AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTED IN AN
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT.  THESE STORMS FORMED ALONG A WIND-SHIFT
BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM SERN OK THROUGH SWRN AR INTO NRN LA.
MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 45 KT IS
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...AS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.  AN ELY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS AR AND SELY ACROSS LA COMBINED WITH WSWLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL SUSTAIN RELATIVELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS...
AS CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT AREA WSR-88D VWP DATA.  THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SPLITTING STORMS...WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE EXPANDING BEYOND ISOLATED IS LOW AT
THIS TIME...GIVEN A LACK OF MODEL SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN A FEW STORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS SWRN AR INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WIND-SHIFT BOUNDARY AND
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...THE 12Z 4-KM NMM
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AR
AND NRN LA.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33959442 34149382 33739229 32669204 32659310 32969393
            33439419 33959442





000
ACUS11 KWNS 262310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262309
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-270015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 262309Z - 270015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS WITH A FEW CONTINUING TO BECOME SEVERE MAY
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PRIMARILY SWRN AR...THOUGH PORTIONS
OF SRN AR AND NRN LA WILL BE MONITORED AS WELL FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SHV WSR-88D SINCE AROUND 21Z INDICATED A FEW
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SWRN AR WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 80S AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTED IN AN
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT.  THESE STORMS FORMED ALONG A WIND-SHIFT
BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM SERN OK THROUGH SWRN AR INTO NRN LA.
MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 45 KT IS
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...AS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.  AN ELY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS AR AND SELY ACROSS LA COMBINED WITH WSWLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL SUSTAIN RELATIVELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS...
AS CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT AREA WSR-88D VWP DATA.  THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SPLITTING STORMS...WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE EXPANDING BEYOND ISOLATED IS LOW AT
THIS TIME...GIVEN A LACK OF MODEL SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN A FEW STORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS SWRN AR INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WIND-SHIFT BOUNDARY AND
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...THE 12Z 4-KM NMM
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AR
AND NRN LA.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33959442 34149382 33739229 32669204 32659310 32969393
            33439419 33959442





000
ACUS11 KWNS 262310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262309
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-270015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 262309Z - 270015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS WITH A FEW CONTINUING TO BECOME SEVERE MAY
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PRIMARILY SWRN AR...THOUGH PORTIONS
OF SRN AR AND NRN LA WILL BE MONITORED AS WELL FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SHV WSR-88D SINCE AROUND 21Z INDICATED A FEW
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SWRN AR WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MID 80S AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTED IN AN
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT.  THESE STORMS FORMED ALONG A WIND-SHIFT
BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM SERN OK THROUGH SWRN AR INTO NRN LA.
MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 45 KT IS
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...AS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.  AN ELY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS AR AND SELY ACROSS LA COMBINED WITH WSWLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL SUSTAIN RELATIVELY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS...
AS CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT AREA WSR-88D VWP DATA.  THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SPLITTING STORMS...WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE EXPANDING BEYOND ISOLATED IS LOW AT
THIS TIME...GIVEN A LACK OF MODEL SUPPORT FOR MORE THAN A FEW STORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS SWRN AR INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WIND-SHIFT BOUNDARY AND
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...THE 12Z 4-KM NMM
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AR
AND NRN LA.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33959442 34149382 33739229 32669204 32659310 32969393
            33439419 33959442






000
ACUS11 KWNS 262251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262251
TXZ000-270015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND N CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 121...

VALID 262251Z - 270015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 121 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING GUSTS.  A STRONG TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR INCREASE.

DISCUSSION...THERE HAS BEEN SOME MIXING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL TX...TO THE S OF THE WEAKENING SUPERCELL IN ERATH COUNTY.
THE MIXING HAS RESULTED IN SOME REDUCTION IN BUOYANCY AND HIGHER LCL
HEIGHTS...BUT OBSERVATIONS A BIT FARTHER S SHOW MOISTURE RECOVERING
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL INTO THE 80S.  DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 60S THIS EVENING INTO THE ZONE OF
BACKED WINDS WITH THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
FROM ABOUT WACO TO BROWNWOOD.  ALSO...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE
IN RESPONSE TO THE SYNOPTIC WAVE EMERGING OVER W TX...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT A REJUVENATION OF THE TORNADO RISK BY ABOUT 00-01Z.  IN THE
INTERIM...NEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR TRIPLE POINT CLOSE TO
BROWNWOOD...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
GUSTS.

..THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON   32299809 32059784 31829790 31679809 31679853 31729906
            31789951 31979960 32259937 32389882 32299809






000
ACUS11 KWNS 262251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262251
TXZ000-270015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND N CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 121...

VALID 262251Z - 270015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 121 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING GUSTS.  A STRONG TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR INCREASE.

DISCUSSION...THERE HAS BEEN SOME MIXING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL TX...TO THE S OF THE WEAKENING SUPERCELL IN ERATH COUNTY.
THE MIXING HAS RESULTED IN SOME REDUCTION IN BUOYANCY AND HIGHER LCL
HEIGHTS...BUT OBSERVATIONS A BIT FARTHER S SHOW MOISTURE RECOVERING
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL INTO THE 80S.  DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 60S THIS EVENING INTO THE ZONE OF
BACKED WINDS WITH THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
FROM ABOUT WACO TO BROWNWOOD.  ALSO...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE
IN RESPONSE TO THE SYNOPTIC WAVE EMERGING OVER W TX...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT A REJUVENATION OF THE TORNADO RISK BY ABOUT 00-01Z.  IN THE
INTERIM...NEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR TRIPLE POINT CLOSE TO
BROWNWOOD...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
GUSTS.

..THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON   32299809 32059784 31829790 31679809 31679853 31729906
            31789951 31979960 32259937 32389882 32299809





000
ACUS11 KWNS 262251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262251
TXZ000-270015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND N CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 121...

VALID 262251Z - 270015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 121 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING GUSTS.  A STRONG TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR INCREASE.

DISCUSSION...THERE HAS BEEN SOME MIXING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL TX...TO THE S OF THE WEAKENING SUPERCELL IN ERATH COUNTY.
THE MIXING HAS RESULTED IN SOME REDUCTION IN BUOYANCY AND HIGHER LCL
HEIGHTS...BUT OBSERVATIONS A BIT FARTHER S SHOW MOISTURE RECOVERING
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL INTO THE 80S.  DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 60S THIS EVENING INTO THE ZONE OF
BACKED WINDS WITH THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
FROM ABOUT WACO TO BROWNWOOD.  ALSO...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE
IN RESPONSE TO THE SYNOPTIC WAVE EMERGING OVER W TX...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT A REJUVENATION OF THE TORNADO RISK BY ABOUT 00-01Z.  IN THE
INTERIM...NEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR TRIPLE POINT CLOSE TO
BROWNWOOD...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
GUSTS.

..THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON   32299809 32059784 31829790 31679809 31679853 31729906
            31789951 31979960 32259937 32389882 32299809





000
ACUS11 KWNS 262251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262251
TXZ000-270015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND N CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 121...

VALID 262251Z - 270015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 121 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING GUSTS.  A STRONG TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR INCREASE.

DISCUSSION...THERE HAS BEEN SOME MIXING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL TX...TO THE S OF THE WEAKENING SUPERCELL IN ERATH COUNTY.
THE MIXING HAS RESULTED IN SOME REDUCTION IN BUOYANCY AND HIGHER LCL
HEIGHTS...BUT OBSERVATIONS A BIT FARTHER S SHOW MOISTURE RECOVERING
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL INTO THE 80S.  DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 60S THIS EVENING INTO THE ZONE OF
BACKED WINDS WITH THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
FROM ABOUT WACO TO BROWNWOOD.  ALSO...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE
IN RESPONSE TO THE SYNOPTIC WAVE EMERGING OVER W TX...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT A REJUVENATION OF THE TORNADO RISK BY ABOUT 00-01Z.  IN THE
INTERIM...NEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR TRIPLE POINT CLOSE TO
BROWNWOOD...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
GUSTS.

..THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON   32299809 32059784 31829790 31679809 31679853 31729906
            31789951 31979960 32259937 32389882 32299809





000
ACUS11 KWNS 262251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262251
TXZ000-270015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND N CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 121...

VALID 262251Z - 270015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 121 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING GUSTS.  A STRONG TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR INCREASE.

DISCUSSION...THERE HAS BEEN SOME MIXING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL TX...TO THE S OF THE WEAKENING SUPERCELL IN ERATH COUNTY.
THE MIXING HAS RESULTED IN SOME REDUCTION IN BUOYANCY AND HIGHER LCL
HEIGHTS...BUT OBSERVATIONS A BIT FARTHER S SHOW MOISTURE RECOVERING
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL INTO THE 80S.  DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 60S THIS EVENING INTO THE ZONE OF
BACKED WINDS WITH THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
FROM ABOUT WACO TO BROWNWOOD.  ALSO...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE
IN RESPONSE TO THE SYNOPTIC WAVE EMERGING OVER W TX...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT A REJUVENATION OF THE TORNADO RISK BY ABOUT 00-01Z.  IN THE
INTERIM...NEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR TRIPLE POINT CLOSE TO
BROWNWOOD...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
GUSTS.

..THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON   32299809 32059784 31829790 31679809 31679853 31729906
            31789951 31979960 32259937 32389882 32299809





000
ACUS11 KWNS 262251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262251
TXZ000-270015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND N CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 121...

VALID 262251Z - 270015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 121 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING GUSTS.  A STRONG TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHEAR INCREASE.

DISCUSSION...THERE HAS BEEN SOME MIXING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
CENTRAL TX...TO THE S OF THE WEAKENING SUPERCELL IN ERATH COUNTY.
THE MIXING HAS RESULTED IN SOME REDUCTION IN BUOYANCY AND HIGHER LCL
HEIGHTS...BUT OBSERVATIONS A BIT FARTHER S SHOW MOISTURE RECOVERING
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL INTO THE 80S.  DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE MID 60S THIS EVENING INTO THE ZONE OF
BACKED WINDS WITH THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
FROM ABOUT WACO TO BROWNWOOD.  ALSO...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE
IN RESPONSE TO THE SYNOPTIC WAVE EMERGING OVER W TX...WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT A REJUVENATION OF THE TORNADO RISK BY ABOUT 00-01Z.  IN THE
INTERIM...NEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR TRIPLE POINT CLOSE TO
BROWNWOOD...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
GUSTS.

..THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON   32299809 32059784 31829790 31679809 31679853 31729906
            31789951 31979960 32259937 32389882 32299809






000
ACUS11 KWNS 262225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262224
TXZ000-270000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262224Z - 270000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE...IT PROBABLY WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER HOUSTON METRO AREA INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  FOR THIS REASON...A WW DOES
APPEAR POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WHICH HAS RECENTLY FORMED HAS
DONE SO IN THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY
MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTENT AND SIZABLE CAPE.  IT IS UNCLEAR IF ACTIVITY IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY SUBSTANTIVE MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...BUT IT APPEARS NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS...ALONG WHICH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THERE IS MUCH FURTHER UPSCALE
CONVECTIVE GROWTH...THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO SUSPECT THAT ONGOING
ACTIVITY WILL NOT PERSIST AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...LIKELY
IMPACTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA
THROUGH 23-01Z.  LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE RATHER MODEST IN
SIZE...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...IN
ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND AT LEAST LOCALIZED STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

..KERR/THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29709630 29969549 29999461 29629415 29179484 29029592
            29109624 29379642 29709630





000
ACUS11 KWNS 262225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262224
TXZ000-270000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262224Z - 270000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE...IT PROBABLY WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER HOUSTON METRO AREA INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  FOR THIS REASON...A WW DOES
APPEAR POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WHICH HAS RECENTLY FORMED HAS
DONE SO IN THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY
MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTENT AND SIZABLE CAPE.  IT IS UNCLEAR IF ACTIVITY IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY SUBSTANTIVE MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...BUT IT APPEARS NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS...ALONG WHICH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THERE IS MUCH FURTHER UPSCALE
CONVECTIVE GROWTH...THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO SUSPECT THAT ONGOING
ACTIVITY WILL NOT PERSIST AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...LIKELY
IMPACTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA
THROUGH 23-01Z.  LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE RATHER MODEST IN
SIZE...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...IN
ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND AT LEAST LOCALIZED STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

..KERR/THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29709630 29969549 29999461 29629415 29179484 29029592
            29109624 29379642 29709630





000
ACUS11 KWNS 262225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262224
TXZ000-270000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262224Z - 270000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE...IT PROBABLY WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER HOUSTON METRO AREA INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  FOR THIS REASON...A WW DOES
APPEAR POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WHICH HAS RECENTLY FORMED HAS
DONE SO IN THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY
MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTENT AND SIZABLE CAPE.  IT IS UNCLEAR IF ACTIVITY IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY SUBSTANTIVE MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...BUT IT APPEARS NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS...ALONG WHICH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THERE IS MUCH FURTHER UPSCALE
CONVECTIVE GROWTH...THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO SUSPECT THAT ONGOING
ACTIVITY WILL NOT PERSIST AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...LIKELY
IMPACTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA
THROUGH 23-01Z.  LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE RATHER MODEST IN
SIZE...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...IN
ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND AT LEAST LOCALIZED STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

..KERR/THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29709630 29969549 29999461 29629415 29179484 29029592
            29109624 29379642 29709630






000
ACUS11 KWNS 262225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262224
TXZ000-270000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262224Z - 270000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE...IT PROBABLY WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER HOUSTON METRO AREA INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  FOR THIS REASON...A WW DOES
APPEAR POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WHICH HAS RECENTLY FORMED HAS
DONE SO IN THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY
MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTENT AND SIZABLE CAPE.  IT IS UNCLEAR IF ACTIVITY IS BEING
SUPPORTED BY SUBSTANTIVE MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...BUT IT APPEARS NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS...ALONG WHICH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THERE IS MUCH FURTHER UPSCALE
CONVECTIVE GROWTH...THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO SUSPECT THAT ONGOING
ACTIVITY WILL NOT PERSIST AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...LIKELY
IMPACTING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREATER HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA
THROUGH 23-01Z.  LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE RATHER MODEST IN
SIZE...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...IN
ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND AT LEAST LOCALIZED STRONG
WIND GUSTS.

..KERR/THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29709630 29969549 29999461 29629415 29179484 29029592
            29109624 29379642 29709630





000
ACUS11 KWNS 262018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262018
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-262215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0469
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NM...TX PANHANDLE...SWRN PANHANDLE OF
OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262018Z - 262215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ARC
BETWEEN TAD-AMA..AND WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS NARROW CORRIDOR OF
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY BEFORE WEAKENING.  ACTIVITY MAY LAST LONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SVR HAIL OR A TORNADO.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED...FOR
SOME PARTS OF THIS CORRIDOR...PERHAPS AS WWD EXTENSION IN SPACE OF
WW 120.

DISCUSSION...NARROW PLUME OF AT LEAST MRGLLY BUOYANT/SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE-INFLOW AIR IS EVIDENT BETWEEN ARCHING FRONTAL ZONE THAT
EXTENDS WNWWD FROM SWRN OK...AND DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY TO
ITS N.  PAC COLD FRONT WAS CATCHING UP TO FIRST FRONTAL
ZONE...PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKING IT FROM NW-SE AND AUGMENTING
ASSOCIATED LIFT.  50-75-NM-WIDE CHANNEL OF 500-1200 J/KG MLCAPE WAS
EVIDENT FROM MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THIS CORRIDOR...WITH
INSOLATION ACTING UPON SIR MASS CONTAINING MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
BOUNDARY-ASSOCIATED VORTICITY AND 0-3-KM CAPE MAX MAY BECOME BETTER
JUXTAPOSED OVER CENTRAL/WRN PANHANDLE AND ERN UNION COUNTY NM AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY.  50-KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES SHOULD AID IN
STORM ORGANIZATION...BEFORE MODES GET MESSY AND/OR INSTABILITY
DECREASES DUE TO COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW...ANVIL SHADING AND EVENTUAL
EVENING DIABATIC COOLING.

..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36940329 36590253 35920164 35040100 34540086 34650156
            35420213 36040302 36710400 36940329





000
ACUS11 KWNS 262018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262018
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-262215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0469
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NM...TX PANHANDLE...SWRN PANHANDLE OF
OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262018Z - 262215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ARC
BETWEEN TAD-AMA..AND WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS NARROW CORRIDOR OF
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY BEFORE WEAKENING.  ACTIVITY MAY LAST LONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SVR HAIL OR A TORNADO.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED...FOR
SOME PARTS OF THIS CORRIDOR...PERHAPS AS WWD EXTENSION IN SPACE OF
WW 120.

DISCUSSION...NARROW PLUME OF AT LEAST MRGLLY BUOYANT/SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE-INFLOW AIR IS EVIDENT BETWEEN ARCHING FRONTAL ZONE THAT
EXTENDS WNWWD FROM SWRN OK...AND DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY TO
ITS N.  PAC COLD FRONT WAS CATCHING UP TO FIRST FRONTAL
ZONE...PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKING IT FROM NW-SE AND AUGMENTING
ASSOCIATED LIFT.  50-75-NM-WIDE CHANNEL OF 500-1200 J/KG MLCAPE WAS
EVIDENT FROM MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THIS CORRIDOR...WITH
INSOLATION ACTING UPON SIR MASS CONTAINING MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
BOUNDARY-ASSOCIATED VORTICITY AND 0-3-KM CAPE MAX MAY BECOME BETTER
JUXTAPOSED OVER CENTRAL/WRN PANHANDLE AND ERN UNION COUNTY NM AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY.  50-KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES SHOULD AID IN
STORM ORGANIZATION...BEFORE MODES GET MESSY AND/OR INSTABILITY
DECREASES DUE TO COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW...ANVIL SHADING AND EVENTUAL
EVENING DIABATIC COOLING.

..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36940329 36590253 35920164 35040100 34540086 34650156
            35420213 36040302 36710400 36940329






000
ACUS11 KWNS 262018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262018
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-262215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0469
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NM...TX PANHANDLE...SWRN PANHANDLE OF
OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 262018Z - 262215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ARC
BETWEEN TAD-AMA..AND WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS NARROW CORRIDOR OF
FAVORABLE INSTABILITY BEFORE WEAKENING.  ACTIVITY MAY LAST LONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SVR HAIL OR A TORNADO.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED...FOR
SOME PARTS OF THIS CORRIDOR...PERHAPS AS WWD EXTENSION IN SPACE OF
WW 120.

DISCUSSION...NARROW PLUME OF AT LEAST MRGLLY BUOYANT/SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE-INFLOW AIR IS EVIDENT BETWEEN ARCHING FRONTAL ZONE THAT
EXTENDS WNWWD FROM SWRN OK...AND DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY TO
ITS N.  PAC COLD FRONT WAS CATCHING UP TO FIRST FRONTAL
ZONE...PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKING IT FROM NW-SE AND AUGMENTING
ASSOCIATED LIFT.  50-75-NM-WIDE CHANNEL OF 500-1200 J/KG MLCAPE WAS
EVIDENT FROM MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THIS CORRIDOR...WITH
INSOLATION ACTING UPON SIR MASS CONTAINING MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
BOUNDARY-ASSOCIATED VORTICITY AND 0-3-KM CAPE MAX MAY BECOME BETTER
JUXTAPOSED OVER CENTRAL/WRN PANHANDLE AND ERN UNION COUNTY NM AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY.  50-KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES SHOULD AID IN
STORM ORGANIZATION...BEFORE MODES GET MESSY AND/OR INSTABILITY
DECREASES DUE TO COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW...ANVIL SHADING AND EVENTUAL
EVENING DIABATIC COOLING.

..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36940329 36590253 35920164 35040100 34540086 34650156
            35420213 36040302 36710400 36940329





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261954
TXZ000-OKZ000-262200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0468
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW TX.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119...

VALID 261954Z - 262200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 119 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CONTINUE WW.  SEVERAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING HAIL
AND A TORNADO OR TWO HAVE FORMED OVER WRN PORTIONS WW AND WILL MOVE
ENEWD TO NEWD ACROSS WW AREA OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.  SOME UPSCALE
EVOLUTION INTO CLUSTERED/SMALL-MCS MODE IS PSBL.
ADDITIONAL SVR DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FROM SRN PORTIONS WW INTO ERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU/WRN HILL COUNTRY.  CONVECTIVE/DESTABILIZATION TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR PSBL NEW WW THERE.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE INTERSECTING
WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE NEAR SWRN CORNER OF COTTLE
COUNTY...AND EXTENDING SWD BETWEEN SNK-SWW TO NEAR SOA.  FRONT
EXTENDS EWD ACROSS SRN OK NEAR OR JUST N OF NRN EDGE OF WW.
CONFLUENCE LINE WAS DRAWN COTTLE COUNTY SSEWD TO NEAR JCT.  DRYLINE
SHOULD CONTINUE MIXING EWD TO POSITION NEAR CONFLUENCE LINE BEFORE
STALLING LATE THIS AFTN...PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF PAC COLD FRONT NOW
OVER WRN PORTIONS SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS.

DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER/ELEVATED
CONVECTION WAS DRAWN FROM WILLIAMSON COUNTY NWWD INTO SUPERCELL
APCHG BROWN/CALLAHAN COUNTY LINE...AND MAY EXTEND FARTHER NW TOWARD
TOWARD SUPERCELL APCHG NRN SHACKLEFORD COUNTY.  THIS BOUNDARY WAS
MOVING NEWD ABOUT 15-20 KT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING SUPERCELLS TO HAVE
LONG RESIDENCE TIME WITH THIS BOUNDARY.    ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY MAY ENHANCE MESOCYCLONE STRENGTH/TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE STORMS OR ANY OTHERS THAT CAN INTERACT WITH IT.

SMALL POCKET OF STG SFC DRYING WAS EVIDENT AT BKD AND TO LESSER
EXTENT RPH...LIKELY RELATED TO DOWNDRAFTS FROM MIDLEVEL CONVECTION.
THIS AIR MAY BE ENTRAINED INTO INFLOW OF STORMS TO ITS W IN ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MESSIER STRUCTURES.
MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE SW OF EXISTING
CONVECTION ALONG BLENDING DRYLINE/CONFLUENCE LINE.   AS THIS
OCCURS...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DIABATIC SFC HEATING S OF ONGOING
CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL INCREASE.  POTENTIAL THEREFORE
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR-TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR SRN EDGE OF
WW AND SWD THROUGH HILL COUNTRY.  ANY SUCH CONVECTION MAY BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR WITH LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND TORNADO RISK.

--- NOTE ---
RAP MODEL HAS HAD A SUBSTANTIAL DRYING/OVER-MIXING PROBLEM OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL TX AND SRN OK ALL DAY LONG.  THIS APPEARS TO BE STRONGLY
AFFECTING MOISTURE FIELDS AND AUTOMATED ANALYSES OF PARAMETERS
DEPENDENT ON MOISTURE.  USE BUOYANCY/MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE PROGS FROM
RAP...RAP-DEPENDENT HRRR...AND SPC/SFCOA FIELDS...WITH GREAT
CAUTION.

..EDWARDS.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   30610013 33120036 33960044 34219973 34149849 33849781
            32189782 30779870 30419962 30610013





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261954
TXZ000-OKZ000-262200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0468
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW TX.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119...

VALID 261954Z - 262200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 119 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CONTINUE WW.  SEVERAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING HAIL
AND A TORNADO OR TWO HAVE FORMED OVER WRN PORTIONS WW AND WILL MOVE
ENEWD TO NEWD ACROSS WW AREA OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.  SOME UPSCALE
EVOLUTION INTO CLUSTERED/SMALL-MCS MODE IS PSBL.
ADDITIONAL SVR DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FROM SRN PORTIONS WW INTO ERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU/WRN HILL COUNTRY.  CONVECTIVE/DESTABILIZATION TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR PSBL NEW WW THERE.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE INTERSECTING
WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE NEAR SWRN CORNER OF COTTLE
COUNTY...AND EXTENDING SWD BETWEEN SNK-SWW TO NEAR SOA.  FRONT
EXTENDS EWD ACROSS SRN OK NEAR OR JUST N OF NRN EDGE OF WW.
CONFLUENCE LINE WAS DRAWN COTTLE COUNTY SSEWD TO NEAR JCT.  DRYLINE
SHOULD CONTINUE MIXING EWD TO POSITION NEAR CONFLUENCE LINE BEFORE
STALLING LATE THIS AFTN...PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF PAC COLD FRONT NOW
OVER WRN PORTIONS SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS.

DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER/ELEVATED
CONVECTION WAS DRAWN FROM WILLIAMSON COUNTY NWWD INTO SUPERCELL
APCHG BROWN/CALLAHAN COUNTY LINE...AND MAY EXTEND FARTHER NW TOWARD
TOWARD SUPERCELL APCHG NRN SHACKLEFORD COUNTY.  THIS BOUNDARY WAS
MOVING NEWD ABOUT 15-20 KT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING SUPERCELLS TO HAVE
LONG RESIDENCE TIME WITH THIS BOUNDARY.    ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY MAY ENHANCE MESOCYCLONE STRENGTH/TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE STORMS OR ANY OTHERS THAT CAN INTERACT WITH IT.

SMALL POCKET OF STG SFC DRYING WAS EVIDENT AT BKD AND TO LESSER
EXTENT RPH...LIKELY RELATED TO DOWNDRAFTS FROM MIDLEVEL CONVECTION.
THIS AIR MAY BE ENTRAINED INTO INFLOW OF STORMS TO ITS W IN ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MESSIER STRUCTURES.
MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE SW OF EXISTING
CONVECTION ALONG BLENDING DRYLINE/CONFLUENCE LINE.   AS THIS
OCCURS...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DIABATIC SFC HEATING S OF ONGOING
CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL INCREASE.  POTENTIAL THEREFORE
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR-TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR SRN EDGE OF
WW AND SWD THROUGH HILL COUNTRY.  ANY SUCH CONVECTION MAY BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR WITH LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND TORNADO RISK.

--- NOTE ---
RAP MODEL HAS HAD A SUBSTANTIAL DRYING/OVER-MIXING PROBLEM OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL TX AND SRN OK ALL DAY LONG.  THIS APPEARS TO BE STRONGLY
AFFECTING MOISTURE FIELDS AND AUTOMATED ANALYSES OF PARAMETERS
DEPENDENT ON MOISTURE.  USE BUOYANCY/MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE PROGS FROM
RAP...RAP-DEPENDENT HRRR...AND SPC/SFCOA FIELDS...WITH GREAT
CAUTION.

..EDWARDS.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   30610013 33120036 33960044 34219973 34149849 33849781
            32189782 30779870 30419962 30610013





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261954
TXZ000-OKZ000-262200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0468
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW TX.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119...

VALID 261954Z - 262200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 119 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CONTINUE WW.  SEVERAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING HAIL
AND A TORNADO OR TWO HAVE FORMED OVER WRN PORTIONS WW AND WILL MOVE
ENEWD TO NEWD ACROSS WW AREA OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.  SOME UPSCALE
EVOLUTION INTO CLUSTERED/SMALL-MCS MODE IS PSBL.
ADDITIONAL SVR DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FROM SRN PORTIONS WW INTO ERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU/WRN HILL COUNTRY.  CONVECTIVE/DESTABILIZATION TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR PSBL NEW WW THERE.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE INTERSECTING
WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE NEAR SWRN CORNER OF COTTLE
COUNTY...AND EXTENDING SWD BETWEEN SNK-SWW TO NEAR SOA.  FRONT
EXTENDS EWD ACROSS SRN OK NEAR OR JUST N OF NRN EDGE OF WW.
CONFLUENCE LINE WAS DRAWN COTTLE COUNTY SSEWD TO NEAR JCT.  DRYLINE
SHOULD CONTINUE MIXING EWD TO POSITION NEAR CONFLUENCE LINE BEFORE
STALLING LATE THIS AFTN...PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF PAC COLD FRONT NOW
OVER WRN PORTIONS SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS.

DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER/ELEVATED
CONVECTION WAS DRAWN FROM WILLIAMSON COUNTY NWWD INTO SUPERCELL
APCHG BROWN/CALLAHAN COUNTY LINE...AND MAY EXTEND FARTHER NW TOWARD
TOWARD SUPERCELL APCHG NRN SHACKLEFORD COUNTY.  THIS BOUNDARY WAS
MOVING NEWD ABOUT 15-20 KT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING SUPERCELLS TO HAVE
LONG RESIDENCE TIME WITH THIS BOUNDARY.    ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY MAY ENHANCE MESOCYCLONE STRENGTH/TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE STORMS OR ANY OTHERS THAT CAN INTERACT WITH IT.

SMALL POCKET OF STG SFC DRYING WAS EVIDENT AT BKD AND TO LESSER
EXTENT RPH...LIKELY RELATED TO DOWNDRAFTS FROM MIDLEVEL CONVECTION.
THIS AIR MAY BE ENTRAINED INTO INFLOW OF STORMS TO ITS W IN ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MESSIER STRUCTURES.
MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE SW OF EXISTING
CONVECTION ALONG BLENDING DRYLINE/CONFLUENCE LINE.   AS THIS
OCCURS...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DIABATIC SFC HEATING S OF ONGOING
CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL INCREASE.  POTENTIAL THEREFORE
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR-TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR SRN EDGE OF
WW AND SWD THROUGH HILL COUNTRY.  ANY SUCH CONVECTION MAY BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR WITH LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND TORNADO RISK.

--- NOTE ---
RAP MODEL HAS HAD A SUBSTANTIAL DRYING/OVER-MIXING PROBLEM OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL TX AND SRN OK ALL DAY LONG.  THIS APPEARS TO BE STRONGLY
AFFECTING MOISTURE FIELDS AND AUTOMATED ANALYSES OF PARAMETERS
DEPENDENT ON MOISTURE.  USE BUOYANCY/MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE PROGS FROM
RAP...RAP-DEPENDENT HRRR...AND SPC/SFCOA FIELDS...WITH GREAT
CAUTION.

..EDWARDS.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   30610013 33120036 33960044 34219973 34149849 33849781
            32189782 30779870 30419962 30610013






000
ACUS11 KWNS 261955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261954
TXZ000-OKZ000-262200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0468
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW TX.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119...

VALID 261954Z - 262200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 119 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...CONTINUE WW.  SEVERAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING HAIL
AND A TORNADO OR TWO HAVE FORMED OVER WRN PORTIONS WW AND WILL MOVE
ENEWD TO NEWD ACROSS WW AREA OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.  SOME UPSCALE
EVOLUTION INTO CLUSTERED/SMALL-MCS MODE IS PSBL.
ADDITIONAL SVR DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FROM SRN PORTIONS WW INTO ERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU/WRN HILL COUNTRY.  CONVECTIVE/DESTABILIZATION TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR PSBL NEW WW THERE.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE INTERSECTING
WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE NEAR SWRN CORNER OF COTTLE
COUNTY...AND EXTENDING SWD BETWEEN SNK-SWW TO NEAR SOA.  FRONT
EXTENDS EWD ACROSS SRN OK NEAR OR JUST N OF NRN EDGE OF WW.
CONFLUENCE LINE WAS DRAWN COTTLE COUNTY SSEWD TO NEAR JCT.  DRYLINE
SHOULD CONTINUE MIXING EWD TO POSITION NEAR CONFLUENCE LINE BEFORE
STALLING LATE THIS AFTN...PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF PAC COLD FRONT NOW
OVER WRN PORTIONS SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS.

DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER/ELEVATED
CONVECTION WAS DRAWN FROM WILLIAMSON COUNTY NWWD INTO SUPERCELL
APCHG BROWN/CALLAHAN COUNTY LINE...AND MAY EXTEND FARTHER NW TOWARD
TOWARD SUPERCELL APCHG NRN SHACKLEFORD COUNTY.  THIS BOUNDARY WAS
MOVING NEWD ABOUT 15-20 KT...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING SUPERCELLS TO HAVE
LONG RESIDENCE TIME WITH THIS BOUNDARY.    ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY MAY ENHANCE MESOCYCLONE STRENGTH/TORNADO POTENTIAL FOR
THOSE STORMS OR ANY OTHERS THAT CAN INTERACT WITH IT.

SMALL POCKET OF STG SFC DRYING WAS EVIDENT AT BKD AND TO LESSER
EXTENT RPH...LIKELY RELATED TO DOWNDRAFTS FROM MIDLEVEL CONVECTION.
THIS AIR MAY BE ENTRAINED INTO INFLOW OF STORMS TO ITS W IN ANOTHER
COUPLE HOURS...POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MESSIER STRUCTURES.
MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE SW OF EXISTING
CONVECTION ALONG BLENDING DRYLINE/CONFLUENCE LINE.   AS THIS
OCCURS...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DIABATIC SFC HEATING S OF ONGOING
CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL INCREASE.  POTENTIAL THEREFORE
EXISTS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR-TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEAR SRN EDGE OF
WW AND SWD THROUGH HILL COUNTRY.  ANY SUCH CONVECTION MAY BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR WITH LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND TORNADO RISK.

--- NOTE ---
RAP MODEL HAS HAD A SUBSTANTIAL DRYING/OVER-MIXING PROBLEM OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL TX AND SRN OK ALL DAY LONG.  THIS APPEARS TO BE STRONGLY
AFFECTING MOISTURE FIELDS AND AUTOMATED ANALYSES OF PARAMETERS
DEPENDENT ON MOISTURE.  USE BUOYANCY/MOISTURE/CONVECTIVE PROGS FROM
RAP...RAP-DEPENDENT HRRR...AND SPC/SFCOA FIELDS...WITH GREAT
CAUTION.

..EDWARDS.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   30610013 33120036 33960044 34219973 34149849 33849781
            32189782 30779870 30419962 30610013





000
ACUS01 KWNS 261953
SWODY1
SPC AC 261951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL
TX...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN INTO CNTRL AND ERN
TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE STORMS
SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY.
VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ISOLATED
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ALSO MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND FLORIDA.

THE ONLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK INCLUDE 1)
THE REMOVAL OF MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN SC AND THE N-CNTRL
FL PENINSULA...2) INCLUDING THE AREA OF WRN N-CNTRL TX INTO THE 30
PERCENT SIGNIFICANT HAIL PROBABILITY BASED ON ONGOING SUPERCELLS
POSING A LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

..SMITH.. 04/26/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...

THE SRN SEGMENT OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL
FORM A CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO
SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z/MONDAY.  AN ASSOCIATED 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE OVER NWRN MEXICO WILL
DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL TX WITHIN THE SRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE EVOLVING
LOW.

AT THE SURFACE...A LEE CYCLONE OVER ERN NM WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY
ESEWD INTO CNTRL TX IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW WITH A
DRYLINE BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY AFTERNOON FROM THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW SWD INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.  MEANWHILE...A BACKING AND
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL PROMOTE THE NWD MOVEMENT OF
A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

...SRN PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

MID-MORNING SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A BELT OF IMPLIED ASCENT
SPREADING EWD THROUGH FAR WRN TX AND FAR ERN NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM PRECEDING THE MAIN UPPER-AIR SYSTEM.  AT
THE SAME TIME...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH W-CNTRL TX ALONG AND TO THE S OF THE WARM
FRONT AND BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /SEE 12Z
DRT SOUNDING/.  THE OVERLAP OF THESE PROCESSES SHOULD FOSTER AN
INCREASE IN MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON
NWD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  INCREASING CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR
AND THE DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS
WITH A RISK FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL.  FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...SEE MCD 465.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLY-DAY ACTIVITY OR ALONG ITS SRN
FLANK...SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN TX SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE ENCOURAGED BY THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF
THE MID-LEVEL JET STREAK EMERGING FROM SWRN TX WHERE THE COMBINATION
OF 1500-2000+ J/KG MLCAPE AND STEADILY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

EXPECT STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MULTIPLE MCSS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO ERN TX.  LARGE HAIL AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN.

...FL TODAY...

TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS MORNING ALONG A RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM THE FAR NERN GULF OF MEXICO
EWD ALONG AN OCF-DAB LINE.  TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY...DIABATIC
SURFACE HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S SHOULD RESULT MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AMIDST A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT EXHIBITING A RELATIVELY STRONG WLY DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELD.  AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME SUPERCELL
AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 464.

...SC THIS AFTERNOON...

HEATING OF A MOIST AIR MASS PRECEDING A SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST
A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LATER TODAY.  DIRECT THERMAL
CIRCULATIONS ARISING FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD FOSTER A FEW STORMS BY AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE OWING TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONG WNWLY FLOW
ALOFT.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 261953
SWODY1
SPC AC 261951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL
TX...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN INTO CNTRL AND ERN
TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE STORMS
SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY.
VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ISOLATED
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ALSO MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND FLORIDA.

THE ONLY SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK INCLUDE 1)
THE REMOVAL OF MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN SC AND THE N-CNTRL
FL PENINSULA...2) INCLUDING THE AREA OF WRN N-CNTRL TX INTO THE 30
PERCENT SIGNIFICANT HAIL PROBABILITY BASED ON ONGOING SUPERCELLS
POSING A LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

..SMITH.. 04/26/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...

THE SRN SEGMENT OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL
FORM A CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO
SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z/MONDAY.  AN ASSOCIATED 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE OVER NWRN MEXICO WILL
DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL TX WITHIN THE SRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE EVOLVING
LOW.

AT THE SURFACE...A LEE CYCLONE OVER ERN NM WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY
ESEWD INTO CNTRL TX IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW WITH A
DRYLINE BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY AFTERNOON FROM THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW SWD INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.  MEANWHILE...A BACKING AND
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL PROMOTE THE NWD MOVEMENT OF
A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

...SRN PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

MID-MORNING SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A BELT OF IMPLIED ASCENT
SPREADING EWD THROUGH FAR WRN TX AND FAR ERN NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM PRECEDING THE MAIN UPPER-AIR SYSTEM.  AT
THE SAME TIME...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH W-CNTRL TX ALONG AND TO THE S OF THE WARM
FRONT AND BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /SEE 12Z
DRT SOUNDING/.  THE OVERLAP OF THESE PROCESSES SHOULD FOSTER AN
INCREASE IN MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON
NWD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  INCREASING CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR
AND THE DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS
WITH A RISK FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL.  FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...SEE MCD 465.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLY-DAY ACTIVITY OR ALONG ITS SRN
FLANK...SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN TX SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE ENCOURAGED BY THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF
THE MID-LEVEL JET STREAK EMERGING FROM SWRN TX WHERE THE COMBINATION
OF 1500-2000+ J/KG MLCAPE AND STEADILY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

EXPECT STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MULTIPLE MCSS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO ERN TX.  LARGE HAIL AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN.

...FL TODAY...

TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS MORNING ALONG A RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM THE FAR NERN GULF OF MEXICO
EWD ALONG AN OCF-DAB LINE.  TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY...DIABATIC
SURFACE HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S SHOULD RESULT MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AMIDST A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT EXHIBITING A RELATIVELY STRONG WLY DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELD.  AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME SUPERCELL
AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 464.

...SC THIS AFTERNOON...

HEATING OF A MOIST AIR MASS PRECEDING A SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST
A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LATER TODAY.  DIRECT THERMAL
CIRCULATIONS ARISING FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD FOSTER A FEW STORMS BY AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE OWING TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONG WNWLY FLOW
ALOFT.






000
ACUS11 KWNS 261904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261904
OKZ000-TXZ000-262130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0467
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN OK AND EXTREME SERN PANHANDLE OF TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261904Z - 262130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL IS FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER AFTN
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...WITH WW ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WAVY SFC FRONT FROM SWRN AR WWD
ACROSS SRN OK...MOVING ERRATICALLY SWD IN SOME AREAS WHILE
QUASISTATIONARY IN OTHERS.  WITH TIME...AND AWAY FROM MODULATING
INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS..PRIND SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE FRONT
WILL EFFECTIVELY SHIFT/REFORM NWD AMIDST STG SFC HEATING IN CORRIDOR
ALIGNING E-W ACROSS SWRN OK AND INTO SERN PANHANDLE.  THIS PROCESS
ALREADY IS EVIDENT IN STG THETAE GRADIENT NOW ASSOCIATED WITH
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE N OF SFC FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BOUND
SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS ON N SIDE.  AS AIR MASS BETWEEN
THAT BOUNDARY AND FRONT CONTINUES TO HEAT DIABATICALLY...WITH SFC
DEW POINTS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F...EXPECT CINH TO WEAKEN WITH
MLCAPE RISING INTO 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.  EVEN THOUGH MID-UPPER FLOW
OVER THIS AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY STG DIFLUENCE WITH WEAKER SPEEDS
THAN FARTHER S AND W...BACKED SFC WINDS HELP TO RENDER FAVORABLE
DEEP SHEAR.  EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT ARE EXPECTED AMIDST
EFFECTIVE SRH INCREASING TO 150-300 J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTN.

SVR THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA LIKELY WILL BE MAINLY HAIL AT
FIRST...ARISING FROM EITHER IN-SITU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THOSE
BOUNDARIES AND/OR STORMS MOVING NWD AND NEWD FROM WW 119.  TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME FOR ANY RELATIVELY
DISCRETE/SUSTAINED CONVECTION AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOES LIKEWISE.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES CONVECTIVE MODE...WHICH MAY GROW
MESSY/UPSCALE RATHER QUICKLY.

..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   34019795 34769997 34790050 35170028 35399961 35409867
            35019776 34309746 34029768 34019795





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261904
OKZ000-TXZ000-262130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0467
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN OK AND EXTREME SERN PANHANDLE OF TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261904Z - 262130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL IS FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER AFTN
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...WITH WW ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WAVY SFC FRONT FROM SWRN AR WWD
ACROSS SRN OK...MOVING ERRATICALLY SWD IN SOME AREAS WHILE
QUASISTATIONARY IN OTHERS.  WITH TIME...AND AWAY FROM MODULATING
INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS..PRIND SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE FRONT
WILL EFFECTIVELY SHIFT/REFORM NWD AMIDST STG SFC HEATING IN CORRIDOR
ALIGNING E-W ACROSS SWRN OK AND INTO SERN PANHANDLE.  THIS PROCESS
ALREADY IS EVIDENT IN STG THETAE GRADIENT NOW ASSOCIATED WITH
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE N OF SFC FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BOUND
SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS ON N SIDE.  AS AIR MASS BETWEEN
THAT BOUNDARY AND FRONT CONTINUES TO HEAT DIABATICALLY...WITH SFC
DEW POINTS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F...EXPECT CINH TO WEAKEN WITH
MLCAPE RISING INTO 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.  EVEN THOUGH MID-UPPER FLOW
OVER THIS AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY STG DIFLUENCE WITH WEAKER SPEEDS
THAN FARTHER S AND W...BACKED SFC WINDS HELP TO RENDER FAVORABLE
DEEP SHEAR.  EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT ARE EXPECTED AMIDST
EFFECTIVE SRH INCREASING TO 150-300 J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTN.

SVR THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA LIKELY WILL BE MAINLY HAIL AT
FIRST...ARISING FROM EITHER IN-SITU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THOSE
BOUNDARIES AND/OR STORMS MOVING NWD AND NEWD FROM WW 119.  TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME FOR ANY RELATIVELY
DISCRETE/SUSTAINED CONVECTION AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOES LIKEWISE.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES CONVECTIVE MODE...WHICH MAY GROW
MESSY/UPSCALE RATHER QUICKLY.

..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   34019795 34769997 34790050 35170028 35399961 35409867
            35019776 34309746 34029768 34019795






000
ACUS11 KWNS 261904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261904
OKZ000-TXZ000-262130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0467
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN OK AND EXTREME SERN PANHANDLE OF TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261904Z - 262130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL IS FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER AFTN
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...WITH WW ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WAVY SFC FRONT FROM SWRN AR WWD
ACROSS SRN OK...MOVING ERRATICALLY SWD IN SOME AREAS WHILE
QUASISTATIONARY IN OTHERS.  WITH TIME...AND AWAY FROM MODULATING
INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS..PRIND SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE FRONT
WILL EFFECTIVELY SHIFT/REFORM NWD AMIDST STG SFC HEATING IN CORRIDOR
ALIGNING E-W ACROSS SWRN OK AND INTO SERN PANHANDLE.  THIS PROCESS
ALREADY IS EVIDENT IN STG THETAE GRADIENT NOW ASSOCIATED WITH
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE N OF SFC FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BOUND
SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS ON N SIDE.  AS AIR MASS BETWEEN
THAT BOUNDARY AND FRONT CONTINUES TO HEAT DIABATICALLY...WITH SFC
DEW POINTS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F...EXPECT CINH TO WEAKEN WITH
MLCAPE RISING INTO 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.  EVEN THOUGH MID-UPPER FLOW
OVER THIS AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY STG DIFLUENCE WITH WEAKER SPEEDS
THAN FARTHER S AND W...BACKED SFC WINDS HELP TO RENDER FAVORABLE
DEEP SHEAR.  EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT ARE EXPECTED AMIDST
EFFECTIVE SRH INCREASING TO 150-300 J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTN.

SVR THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA LIKELY WILL BE MAINLY HAIL AT
FIRST...ARISING FROM EITHER IN-SITU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THOSE
BOUNDARIES AND/OR STORMS MOVING NWD AND NEWD FROM WW 119.  TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME FOR ANY RELATIVELY
DISCRETE/SUSTAINED CONVECTION AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOES LIKEWISE.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES CONVECTIVE MODE...WHICH MAY GROW
MESSY/UPSCALE RATHER QUICKLY.

..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   34019795 34769997 34790050 35170028 35399961 35409867
            35019776 34309746 34029768 34019795





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261904
OKZ000-TXZ000-262130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0467
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN OK AND EXTREME SERN PANHANDLE OF TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261904Z - 262130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL IS FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER AFTN
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...WITH WW ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WAVY SFC FRONT FROM SWRN AR WWD
ACROSS SRN OK...MOVING ERRATICALLY SWD IN SOME AREAS WHILE
QUASISTATIONARY IN OTHERS.  WITH TIME...AND AWAY FROM MODULATING
INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS..PRIND SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE FRONT
WILL EFFECTIVELY SHIFT/REFORM NWD AMIDST STG SFC HEATING IN CORRIDOR
ALIGNING E-W ACROSS SWRN OK AND INTO SERN PANHANDLE.  THIS PROCESS
ALREADY IS EVIDENT IN STG THETAE GRADIENT NOW ASSOCIATED WITH
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE N OF SFC FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BOUND
SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS ON N SIDE.  AS AIR MASS BETWEEN
THAT BOUNDARY AND FRONT CONTINUES TO HEAT DIABATICALLY...WITH SFC
DEW POINTS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F...EXPECT CINH TO WEAKEN WITH
MLCAPE RISING INTO 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.  EVEN THOUGH MID-UPPER FLOW
OVER THIS AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY STG DIFLUENCE WITH WEAKER SPEEDS
THAN FARTHER S AND W...BACKED SFC WINDS HELP TO RENDER FAVORABLE
DEEP SHEAR.  EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT ARE EXPECTED AMIDST
EFFECTIVE SRH INCREASING TO 150-300 J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTN.

SVR THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA LIKELY WILL BE MAINLY HAIL AT
FIRST...ARISING FROM EITHER IN-SITU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THOSE
BOUNDARIES AND/OR STORMS MOVING NWD AND NEWD FROM WW 119.  TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME FOR ANY RELATIVELY
DISCRETE/SUSTAINED CONVECTION AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOES LIKEWISE.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES CONVECTIVE MODE...WHICH MAY GROW
MESSY/UPSCALE RATHER QUICKLY.

..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   34019795 34769997 34790050 35170028 35399961 35409867
            35019776 34309746 34029768 34019795





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261904
OKZ000-TXZ000-262130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0467
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN OK AND EXTREME SERN PANHANDLE OF TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261904Z - 262130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL IS FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER AFTN
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...WITH WW ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WAVY SFC FRONT FROM SWRN AR WWD
ACROSS SRN OK...MOVING ERRATICALLY SWD IN SOME AREAS WHILE
QUASISTATIONARY IN OTHERS.  WITH TIME...AND AWAY FROM MODULATING
INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS..PRIND SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE FRONT
WILL EFFECTIVELY SHIFT/REFORM NWD AMIDST STG SFC HEATING IN CORRIDOR
ALIGNING E-W ACROSS SWRN OK AND INTO SERN PANHANDLE.  THIS PROCESS
ALREADY IS EVIDENT IN STG THETAE GRADIENT NOW ASSOCIATED WITH
DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONE N OF SFC FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BOUND
SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS ON N SIDE.  AS AIR MASS BETWEEN
THAT BOUNDARY AND FRONT CONTINUES TO HEAT DIABATICALLY...WITH SFC
DEW POINTS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F...EXPECT CINH TO WEAKEN WITH
MLCAPE RISING INTO 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE.  EVEN THOUGH MID-UPPER FLOW
OVER THIS AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY STG DIFLUENCE WITH WEAKER SPEEDS
THAN FARTHER S AND W...BACKED SFC WINDS HELP TO RENDER FAVORABLE
DEEP SHEAR.  EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT ARE EXPECTED AMIDST
EFFECTIVE SRH INCREASING TO 150-300 J/KG RANGE LATE THIS AFTN.

SVR THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA LIKELY WILL BE MAINLY HAIL AT
FIRST...ARISING FROM EITHER IN-SITU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THOSE
BOUNDARIES AND/OR STORMS MOVING NWD AND NEWD FROM WW 119.  TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME FOR ANY RELATIVELY
DISCRETE/SUSTAINED CONVECTION AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOES LIKEWISE.
MAIN UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES CONVECTIVE MODE...WHICH MAY GROW
MESSY/UPSCALE RATHER QUICKLY.

..EDWARDS/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   34019795 34769997 34790050 35170028 35399961 35409867
            35019776 34309746 34029768 34019795






000
ACUS11 KWNS 261744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261744
SCZ000-261945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261744Z - 261945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SC. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A SLOWLY SWWD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS SC SHOULD
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPERATURES ALONG AND S OF THIS
FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF 17Z...WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE SC. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MLCAPE
SHOULD INCREASE UP TO 1000-1250 J/KG GIVEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.0-6.5 C/KM.

UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT THAT IS ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE SFC BOUNDARY MAY PROMOTE INITIAL SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTICELL/BOWING
STRUCTURES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. AREA RADARS DEPICT ELEVATED
SHOWERS THAT HAVE RECENTLY FORMED OVER CHEROKEE COUNTY SC TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHICH COUPLED WITH A DEEPENING CUMULUS
FIELD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...MAY SIGNAL THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

REGARDLESS...THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY
ACT TO LIMIT A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..GLEASON/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   32597929 32358068 33408185 34268267 35148236 35148188
            34798085 34227968 33817869 33287863 32597929





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261744
SCZ000-261945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261744Z - 261945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SC. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A SLOWLY SWWD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS SC SHOULD
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPERATURES ALONG AND S OF THIS
FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF 17Z...WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE SC. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MLCAPE
SHOULD INCREASE UP TO 1000-1250 J/KG GIVEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.0-6.5 C/KM.

UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT THAT IS ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE SFC BOUNDARY MAY PROMOTE INITIAL SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTICELL/BOWING
STRUCTURES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. AREA RADARS DEPICT ELEVATED
SHOWERS THAT HAVE RECENTLY FORMED OVER CHEROKEE COUNTY SC TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHICH COUPLED WITH A DEEPENING CUMULUS
FIELD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...MAY SIGNAL THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

REGARDLESS...THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY
ACT TO LIMIT A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..GLEASON/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   32597929 32358068 33408185 34268267 35148236 35148188
            34798085 34227968 33817869 33287863 32597929





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261744
SCZ000-261945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261744Z - 261945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SC. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A SLOWLY SWWD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS SC SHOULD
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPERATURES ALONG AND S OF THIS
FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF 17Z...WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE SC. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MLCAPE
SHOULD INCREASE UP TO 1000-1250 J/KG GIVEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.0-6.5 C/KM.

UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT THAT IS ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE SFC BOUNDARY MAY PROMOTE INITIAL SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTICELL/BOWING
STRUCTURES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. AREA RADARS DEPICT ELEVATED
SHOWERS THAT HAVE RECENTLY FORMED OVER CHEROKEE COUNTY SC TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHICH COUPLED WITH A DEEPENING CUMULUS
FIELD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...MAY SIGNAL THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

REGARDLESS...THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY
ACT TO LIMIT A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..GLEASON/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   32597929 32358068 33408185 34268267 35148236 35148188
            34798085 34227968 33817869 33287863 32597929






000
ACUS11 KWNS 261744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261744
SCZ000-261945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261744Z - 261945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SC. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A SLOWLY SWWD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS SC SHOULD
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPERATURES ALONG AND S OF THIS
FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF 17Z...WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE SC. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MLCAPE
SHOULD INCREASE UP TO 1000-1250 J/KG GIVEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.0-6.5 C/KM.

UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT THAT IS ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE SFC BOUNDARY MAY PROMOTE INITIAL SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTICELL/BOWING
STRUCTURES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. AREA RADARS DEPICT ELEVATED
SHOWERS THAT HAVE RECENTLY FORMED OVER CHEROKEE COUNTY SC TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHICH COUPLED WITH A DEEPENING CUMULUS
FIELD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...MAY SIGNAL THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

REGARDLESS...THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY
ACT TO LIMIT A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..GLEASON/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   32597929 32358068 33408185 34268267 35148236 35148188
            34798085 34227968 33817869 33287863 32597929






000
ACUS11 KWNS 261744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261744
SCZ000-261945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 261744Z - 261945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SC. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A SLOWLY SWWD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS SC SHOULD
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPERATURES ALONG AND S OF THIS
FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS OF 17Z...WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE SC. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MLCAPE
SHOULD INCREASE UP TO 1000-1250 J/KG GIVEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.0-6.5 C/KM.

UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT THAT IS ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE SFC BOUNDARY MAY PROMOTE INITIAL SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTICELL/BOWING
STRUCTURES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. AREA RADARS DEPICT ELEVATED
SHOWERS THAT HAVE RECENTLY FORMED OVER CHEROKEE COUNTY SC TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHICH COUPLED WITH A DEEPENING CUMULUS
FIELD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...MAY SIGNAL THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

REGARDLESS...THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY
ACT TO LIMIT A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..GLEASON/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   32597929 32358068 33408185 34268267 35148236 35148188
            34798085 34227968 33817869 33287863 32597929





000
ACUS02 KWNS 261706
SWODY2
SPC AC 261705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND
SERN TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES ON
MONDAY.

...TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM THE NWRN GULF INTO TX/LA DURING THE
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
THE NWRN GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER
NWRN TX TO START THE PERIOD.  THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR
MONDAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OF A THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER/COMPLEX THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL
TX PRIOR TO THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
MEANDERS EWD ACROSS NWRN TX AND OK DURING THE DAY...THIS FEATURE AND
A POWERFUL UPPER JET LOCATED OVER SRN/SERN TX WILL PROVIDE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND IN TURN AID IN MAINTAINING
WHATEVER MANAGES TO EVOLVE BY MONDAY MORNING.  BASED ON STRONG MODEL
CONSENSUS TO THIS POINT...THE WRN AND NWRN BOUNDS OF THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE DEMARCATED DUE TO EARLY DAY STORMS.

WITH THE ABOVE CONVECTIVE-SCALE INFLUENCING FACTORS AND ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN MIND...A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER /CHARACTERIZED
BY MEAN MIXING RATIOS 14-16 G PER KG/ BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES --TO THE S OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE-- WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  A VEERING
AND INCREASING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK.  THE WIND
DAMAGE RISK MAY EVOLVE TO BE PERHAPS THE GREATEST RISK AS STORMS
MOVE EWD ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY.  IN WAKE OF
EARLY-DAY CONVECTION FARTHER W OVER TX...IF SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO
EVENING BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WEAKENS TOWARDS DARK.

..SMITH.. 04/26/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 261706
SWODY2
SPC AC 261705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND
SERN TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES ON
MONDAY.

...TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM THE NWRN GULF INTO TX/LA DURING THE
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
THE NWRN GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER
NWRN TX TO START THE PERIOD.  THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR
MONDAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OF A THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER/COMPLEX THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL
TX PRIOR TO THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
MEANDERS EWD ACROSS NWRN TX AND OK DURING THE DAY...THIS FEATURE AND
A POWERFUL UPPER JET LOCATED OVER SRN/SERN TX WILL PROVIDE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND IN TURN AID IN MAINTAINING
WHATEVER MANAGES TO EVOLVE BY MONDAY MORNING.  BASED ON STRONG MODEL
CONSENSUS TO THIS POINT...THE WRN AND NWRN BOUNDS OF THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE DEMARCATED DUE TO EARLY DAY STORMS.

WITH THE ABOVE CONVECTIVE-SCALE INFLUENCING FACTORS AND ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN MIND...A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER /CHARACTERIZED
BY MEAN MIXING RATIOS 14-16 G PER KG/ BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES --TO THE S OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE-- WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  A VEERING
AND INCREASING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK.  THE WIND
DAMAGE RISK MAY EVOLVE TO BE PERHAPS THE GREATEST RISK AS STORMS
MOVE EWD ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY.  IN WAKE OF
EARLY-DAY CONVECTION FARTHER W OVER TX...IF SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO
EVENING BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WEAKENS TOWARDS DARK.

..SMITH.. 04/26/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 261706
SWODY2
SPC AC 261705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND
SERN TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES ON
MONDAY.

...TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM THE NWRN GULF INTO TX/LA DURING THE
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
THE NWRN GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER
NWRN TX TO START THE PERIOD.  THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR
MONDAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OF A THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER/COMPLEX THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL
TX PRIOR TO THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
MEANDERS EWD ACROSS NWRN TX AND OK DURING THE DAY...THIS FEATURE AND
A POWERFUL UPPER JET LOCATED OVER SRN/SERN TX WILL PROVIDE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND IN TURN AID IN MAINTAINING
WHATEVER MANAGES TO EVOLVE BY MONDAY MORNING.  BASED ON STRONG MODEL
CONSENSUS TO THIS POINT...THE WRN AND NWRN BOUNDS OF THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE DEMARCATED DUE TO EARLY DAY STORMS.

WITH THE ABOVE CONVECTIVE-SCALE INFLUENCING FACTORS AND ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN MIND...A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER /CHARACTERIZED
BY MEAN MIXING RATIOS 14-16 G PER KG/ BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES --TO THE S OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE-- WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  A VEERING
AND INCREASING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK.  THE WIND
DAMAGE RISK MAY EVOLVE TO BE PERHAPS THE GREATEST RISK AS STORMS
MOVE EWD ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY.  IN WAKE OF
EARLY-DAY CONVECTION FARTHER W OVER TX...IF SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO
EVENING BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WEAKENS TOWARDS DARK.

..SMITH.. 04/26/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 261706
SWODY2
SPC AC 261705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND
SERN TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES ON
MONDAY.

...TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM THE NWRN GULF INTO TX/LA DURING THE
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
THE NWRN GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER
NWRN TX TO START THE PERIOD.  THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR
MONDAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OF A THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER/COMPLEX THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL
TX PRIOR TO THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
MEANDERS EWD ACROSS NWRN TX AND OK DURING THE DAY...THIS FEATURE AND
A POWERFUL UPPER JET LOCATED OVER SRN/SERN TX WILL PROVIDE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND IN TURN AID IN MAINTAINING
WHATEVER MANAGES TO EVOLVE BY MONDAY MORNING.  BASED ON STRONG MODEL
CONSENSUS TO THIS POINT...THE WRN AND NWRN BOUNDS OF THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE DEMARCATED DUE TO EARLY DAY STORMS.

WITH THE ABOVE CONVECTIVE-SCALE INFLUENCING FACTORS AND ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN MIND...A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER /CHARACTERIZED
BY MEAN MIXING RATIOS 14-16 G PER KG/ BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES --TO THE S OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE-- WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  A VEERING
AND INCREASING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK.  THE WIND
DAMAGE RISK MAY EVOLVE TO BE PERHAPS THE GREATEST RISK AS STORMS
MOVE EWD ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY.  IN WAKE OF
EARLY-DAY CONVECTION FARTHER W OVER TX...IF SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO
EVENING BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WEAKENS TOWARDS DARK.

..SMITH.. 04/26/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 261629
SWODY1
SPC AC 261628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL
TX...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN INTO CNTRL AND ERN
TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PART OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SC...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE STORMS
SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY.
VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ISOLATED
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ALSO MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...

THE SRN SEGMENT OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL
FORM A CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO
SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z/MONDAY.  AN ASSOCIATED 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE OVER NWRN MEXICO WILL
DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL TX WITHIN THE SRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE EVOLVING
LOW.

AT THE SURFACE...A LEE CYCLONE OVER ERN NM WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY
ESEWD INTO CNTRL TX IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW WITH A
DRYLINE BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY AFTERNOON FROM THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW SWD INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.  MEANWHILE...A BACKING AND
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL PROMOTE THE NWD MOVEMENT OF
A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

...SRN PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

MID-MORNING SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A BELT OF IMPLIED ASCENT
SPREADING EWD THROUGH FAR WRN TX AND FAR ERN NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM PRECEDING THE MAIN UPPER-AIR SYSTEM.  AT
THE SAME TIME...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH W-CNTRL TX ALONG AND TO THE S OF THE WARM
FRONT AND BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /SEE 12Z
DRT SOUNDING/.  THE OVERLAP OF THESE PROCESSES SHOULD FOSTER AN
INCREASE IN MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON
NWD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  INCREASING CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR
AND THE DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS
WITH A RISK FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL.  FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...SEE MCD 465.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLY-DAY ACTIVITY OR ALONG ITS SRN
FLANK...SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN TX SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE ENCOURAGED BY THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF
THE MID-LEVEL JET STREAK EMERGING FROM SWRN TX WHERE THE COMBINATION
OF 1500-2000+ J/KG MLCAPE AND STEADILY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

EXPECT STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MULTIPLE MCSS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO ERN TX.  LARGE HAIL AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN.

...FL TODAY...

TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS MORNING ALONG A RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM THE FAR NERN GULF OF MEXICO
EWD ALONG AN OCF-DAB LINE.  TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY...DIABATIC
SURFACE HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S SHOULD RESULT MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AMIDST A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT EXHIBITING A RELATIVELY STRONG WLY DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELD.  AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME SUPERCELL
AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 464.

...SC THIS AFTERNOON...

HEATING OF A MOIST AIR MASS PRECEDING A SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST
A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LATER TODAY.  DIRECT THERMAL
CIRCULATIONS ARISING FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD FOSTER A FEW STORMS BY AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE OWING TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONG WNWLY FLOW
ALOFT.

..MEAD/GLEASON.. 04/26/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 261629
SWODY1
SPC AC 261628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL
TX...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN INTO CNTRL AND ERN
TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PART OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SC...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE STORMS
SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY.
VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ISOLATED
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ALSO MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...

THE SRN SEGMENT OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL
FORM A CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO
SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z/MONDAY.  AN ASSOCIATED 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE OVER NWRN MEXICO WILL
DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL TX WITHIN THE SRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE EVOLVING
LOW.

AT THE SURFACE...A LEE CYCLONE OVER ERN NM WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY
ESEWD INTO CNTRL TX IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW WITH A
DRYLINE BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY AFTERNOON FROM THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW SWD INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.  MEANWHILE...A BACKING AND
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL PROMOTE THE NWD MOVEMENT OF
A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

...SRN PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

MID-MORNING SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A BELT OF IMPLIED ASCENT
SPREADING EWD THROUGH FAR WRN TX AND FAR ERN NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM PRECEDING THE MAIN UPPER-AIR SYSTEM.  AT
THE SAME TIME...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH W-CNTRL TX ALONG AND TO THE S OF THE WARM
FRONT AND BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /SEE 12Z
DRT SOUNDING/.  THE OVERLAP OF THESE PROCESSES SHOULD FOSTER AN
INCREASE IN MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON
NWD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  INCREASING CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR
AND THE DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS
WITH A RISK FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL.  FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...SEE MCD 465.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLY-DAY ACTIVITY OR ALONG ITS SRN
FLANK...SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN TX SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE ENCOURAGED BY THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF
THE MID-LEVEL JET STREAK EMERGING FROM SWRN TX WHERE THE COMBINATION
OF 1500-2000+ J/KG MLCAPE AND STEADILY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

EXPECT STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MULTIPLE MCSS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO ERN TX.  LARGE HAIL AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN.

...FL TODAY...

TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS MORNING ALONG A RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM THE FAR NERN GULF OF MEXICO
EWD ALONG AN OCF-DAB LINE.  TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY...DIABATIC
SURFACE HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S SHOULD RESULT MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AMIDST A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT EXHIBITING A RELATIVELY STRONG WLY DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELD.  AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME SUPERCELL
AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 464.

...SC THIS AFTERNOON...

HEATING OF A MOIST AIR MASS PRECEDING A SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST
A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LATER TODAY.  DIRECT THERMAL
CIRCULATIONS ARISING FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD FOSTER A FEW STORMS BY AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE OWING TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONG WNWLY FLOW
ALOFT.

..MEAD/GLEASON.. 04/26/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 261555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261555
TXZ000-OKZ000-261800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX INCLUDING TX
BIG COUNTRY INTO SOUTHERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261555Z - 261800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX...AND EVENTUALLY REACH PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY ELEVATED STORMS COULD
POSE A HAIL RISK LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR A WATCH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE BANDS OF INITIALLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX BIG COUNTRY SINCE MID-MORNING
GENERALLY NEAR THE ABILENE AREA AS OF 1530Z. THIS GENERAL INCREASE
SEEMS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING IMPLIED INCREASING FORCING-FOR-ASCENT IS
READILY APPARENT INTO WEST TX PER MORNING IR/WV SATELLITE TRENDS.

SEVERE HAIL MAY BE THE INITIAL RISK LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO STEADILY STREAM
NORTHWARD WITHIN A BROADENING MOIST SECTOR...DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
INCREASINGLY CONNECT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE-BASED
STORMS BECOMING AN INCREASING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX.
ACCORDINGLY...ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   32870056 34709979 33449718 30789792 31759948 32870056





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261555
TXZ000-OKZ000-261800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX INCLUDING TX
BIG COUNTRY INTO SOUTHERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261555Z - 261800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX...AND EVENTUALLY REACH PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY ELEVATED STORMS COULD
POSE A HAIL RISK LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR A WATCH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE BANDS OF INITIALLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX BIG COUNTRY SINCE MID-MORNING
GENERALLY NEAR THE ABILENE AREA AS OF 1530Z. THIS GENERAL INCREASE
SEEMS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING IMPLIED INCREASING FORCING-FOR-ASCENT IS
READILY APPARENT INTO WEST TX PER MORNING IR/WV SATELLITE TRENDS.

SEVERE HAIL MAY BE THE INITIAL RISK LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO STEADILY STREAM
NORTHWARD WITHIN A BROADENING MOIST SECTOR...DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
INCREASINGLY CONNECT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE-BASED
STORMS BECOMING AN INCREASING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX.
ACCORDINGLY...ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   32870056 34709979 33449718 30789792 31759948 32870056





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261555
TXZ000-OKZ000-261800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX INCLUDING TX
BIG COUNTRY INTO SOUTHERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261555Z - 261800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX...AND EVENTUALLY REACH PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY ELEVATED STORMS COULD
POSE A HAIL RISK LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR A WATCH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE BANDS OF INITIALLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX BIG COUNTRY SINCE MID-MORNING
GENERALLY NEAR THE ABILENE AREA AS OF 1530Z. THIS GENERAL INCREASE
SEEMS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING IMPLIED INCREASING FORCING-FOR-ASCENT IS
READILY APPARENT INTO WEST TX PER MORNING IR/WV SATELLITE TRENDS.

SEVERE HAIL MAY BE THE INITIAL RISK LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO STEADILY STREAM
NORTHWARD WITHIN A BROADENING MOIST SECTOR...DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
INCREASINGLY CONNECT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE-BASED
STORMS BECOMING AN INCREASING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX.
ACCORDINGLY...ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   32870056 34709979 33449718 30789792 31759948 32870056






000
ACUS11 KWNS 261555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261555
TXZ000-OKZ000-261800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX INCLUDING TX
BIG COUNTRY INTO SOUTHERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261555Z - 261800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX...AND EVENTUALLY REACH PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY ELEVATED STORMS COULD
POSE A HAIL RISK LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR A WATCH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE BANDS OF INITIALLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX BIG COUNTRY SINCE MID-MORNING
GENERALLY NEAR THE ABILENE AREA AS OF 1530Z. THIS GENERAL INCREASE
SEEMS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING IMPLIED INCREASING FORCING-FOR-ASCENT IS
READILY APPARENT INTO WEST TX PER MORNING IR/WV SATELLITE TRENDS.

SEVERE HAIL MAY BE THE INITIAL RISK LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO STEADILY STREAM
NORTHWARD WITHIN A BROADENING MOIST SECTOR...DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
INCREASINGLY CONNECT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE-BASED
STORMS BECOMING AN INCREASING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX.
ACCORDINGLY...ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   32870056 34709979 33449718 30789792 31759948 32870056





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261555
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261555
TXZ000-OKZ000-261800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX INCLUDING TX
BIG COUNTRY INTO SOUTHERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261555Z - 261800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX...AND EVENTUALLY REACH PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY ELEVATED STORMS COULD
POSE A HAIL RISK LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR A WATCH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE BANDS OF INITIALLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX BIG COUNTRY SINCE MID-MORNING
GENERALLY NEAR THE ABILENE AREA AS OF 1530Z. THIS GENERAL INCREASE
SEEMS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING IMPLIED INCREASING FORCING-FOR-ASCENT IS
READILY APPARENT INTO WEST TX PER MORNING IR/WV SATELLITE TRENDS.

SEVERE HAIL MAY BE THE INITIAL RISK LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO STEADILY STREAM
NORTHWARD WITHIN A BROADENING MOIST SECTOR...DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
INCREASINGLY CONNECT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE-BASED
STORMS BECOMING AN INCREASING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX.
ACCORDINGLY...ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   32870056 34709979 33449718 30789792 31759948 32870056






000
ACUS11 KWNS 261432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261431
FLZ000-261700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0464
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0931 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261431Z - 261700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/MOVE INLAND AND
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...LARGELY RELATED TO PRIOR DAY CONVECTION/OUTFLOW...AN
EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND RELATED ZONE OF
CONFLUENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EXTENDS IN A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING
FROM TAMPA BAY SAMPLES THE MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT
EXISTS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WHERE MLCAPE IS
LIKELY TO REACH 1500-2000 J/KG BY MIDDAY AMID WEAKENING BOUNDARY
LAYER INHIBITION.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONGOING STRONG STORMS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHILE STORMS OTHERWISE INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF THE
WEST-EAST ORIENTED EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY
MATERIALIZE NEAR THE NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL FL COAST WHERE
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN VICINITY OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDLESS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WITH STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE AIDED BY STRONG
MID-LEVEL WINDS /30-50 KT BETWEEN 3-6 KM AGL/...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
EVENTUALLY CLUSTER AS THEY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29498310 29538198 29448083 28228084 28348297 29218355
            29498310





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261431
FLZ000-261700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0464
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0931 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261431Z - 261700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/MOVE INLAND AND
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...LARGELY RELATED TO PRIOR DAY CONVECTION/OUTFLOW...AN
EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND RELATED ZONE OF
CONFLUENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EXTENDS IN A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING
FROM TAMPA BAY SAMPLES THE MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT
EXISTS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WHERE MLCAPE IS
LIKELY TO REACH 1500-2000 J/KG BY MIDDAY AMID WEAKENING BOUNDARY
LAYER INHIBITION.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONGOING STRONG STORMS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHILE STORMS OTHERWISE INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF THE
WEST-EAST ORIENTED EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY
MATERIALIZE NEAR THE NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL FL COAST WHERE
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN VICINITY OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDLESS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WITH STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE AIDED BY STRONG
MID-LEVEL WINDS /30-50 KT BETWEEN 3-6 KM AGL/...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
EVENTUALLY CLUSTER AS THEY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29498310 29538198 29448083 28228084 28348297 29218355
            29498310





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261431
FLZ000-261700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0464
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0931 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261431Z - 261700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/MOVE INLAND AND
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...LARGELY RELATED TO PRIOR DAY CONVECTION/OUTFLOW...AN
EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND RELATED ZONE OF
CONFLUENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EXTENDS IN A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING
FROM TAMPA BAY SAMPLES THE MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT
EXISTS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WHERE MLCAPE IS
LIKELY TO REACH 1500-2000 J/KG BY MIDDAY AMID WEAKENING BOUNDARY
LAYER INHIBITION.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONGOING STRONG STORMS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHILE STORMS OTHERWISE INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF THE
WEST-EAST ORIENTED EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY
MATERIALIZE NEAR THE NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL FL COAST WHERE
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN VICINITY OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDLESS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WITH STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE AIDED BY STRONG
MID-LEVEL WINDS /30-50 KT BETWEEN 3-6 KM AGL/...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
EVENTUALLY CLUSTER AS THEY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29498310 29538198 29448083 28228084 28348297 29218355
            29498310






000
ACUS11 KWNS 261432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261431
FLZ000-261700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0464
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0931 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261431Z - 261700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE/MOVE INLAND AND
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME
SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...LARGELY RELATED TO PRIOR DAY CONVECTION/OUTFLOW...AN
EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND RELATED ZONE OF
CONFLUENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING EXTENDS IN A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING
FROM TAMPA BAY SAMPLES THE MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT
EXISTS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WHERE MLCAPE IS
LIKELY TO REACH 1500-2000 J/KG BY MIDDAY AMID WEAKENING BOUNDARY
LAYER INHIBITION.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ONGOING STRONG STORMS OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...WHILE STORMS OTHERWISE INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF THE
WEST-EAST ORIENTED EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY
MATERIALIZE NEAR THE NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL FL COAST WHERE
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN VICINITY OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDLESS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WITH STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE AIDED BY STRONG
MID-LEVEL WINDS /30-50 KT BETWEEN 3-6 KM AGL/...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
EVENTUALLY CLUSTER AS THEY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29498310 29538198 29448083 28228084 28348297 29218355
            29498310





000
ACUS01 KWNS 261305
SWODY1
SPC AC 261303

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER LARGE PART OF TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHD RISK AREA
FROM THE RIO GRANDE NWD INTO SRN/CNTRL OK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
FROM DEEP S TX INTO THE SRN PLNS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL FL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SC...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE STORMS
SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY.
ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ALSO MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
FOUR CORNERS TROUGH EXPECTED TO TURN EWD AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLNS TNGT/EARLY MON AS 80 KT NLY JET STREAK
NOW OVER THE LWR CO VLY REFORMS E ACROSS FAR W TX...AND UPSTREAM
RIDGE BUILDS N ACROSS THE PAC NW.

AT LWR LVLS...STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW/LEE TROUGHING WILL ALLOW
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR TO SURGE NNW ACROSS CNTRL AND E TX
TODAY...WHILE WEAK NRN STREAM COLD FRONT SETTLE FARTHER S ACROSS OK
AND AR.

...SRN PLNS TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO EXPECTED TO UNFOLD OVER THE SRN PLNS
THIS PERIOD AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPR TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH RAPIDLY MOISTENING LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT AND
STRENGTHENING SHEAR OVER MUCH OF TX AND SRN OK. SETUP APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH VARIABLE STORM MODES AND INTENSITIES
EXPECTED TO SEVERAL FACTORS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC DATA SHOW LEADING EDGE OF RETURNING
MARITIME AIR ATTM EXTENDS FROM NEAR DRT ENE NEAR TYR. SATELLITE ALSO
SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A LEAD UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER CNTRL NM THAT
PRECEDES THE AZ TROUGH.  THIS FEATURE...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER FARTHER
S IN NRN CHIHUAHUA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SFC HEATING...MAY SUPPORT
SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTN OVER PARTS OF W TX. OTHER SCTD
STORMS...ELEVATED ABOVE THE EML...ALSO MAY PERSIST ACROSS S TX AND
ALONG THE MIDDLE TX GULF CST. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SVR.

LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE...HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF SFC
HEATING...RETURNING LOW-LVL MOISTURE...AND INCREASING HEIGHT
FALLS/DCVA EXPECTED TO FOSTER INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF LEE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT/COOL FRONT INTERSECTION OVER NW TX AND SW OK.
GIVEN STRENGTH AND VERTICALLY-VEERING NATURE OF WIND FIELD...THIS
ACTIVITY COULD YIELD SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND AS SBCAPE INCREASES TO
BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 J/KG. A CONDITIONAL RISK ALSO WILL EXIST FOR
MORE ISOLD SVR STORMS TO ARISE FARTHER S ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY
INVOF LOW-LVL MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND OVER N CNTRL TX...AS HEATING
AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE LOCALLY BREACH EML CAP. THESE
STORMS ALSO WILL POTENTIALLY INCLUDE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES GIVEN 40-50 KT
WSWLY DEEP SHEAR.

BY EARLY EVE...THE CNTRL AND N TX STORMS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ONE
OR MORE LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE
STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...ISOLD TORNADOES...AND A SOMEWHAT ENHANCED RISK FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND. LATER TNGT AND EARLY MON...ARRIVAL OF STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS WITH MAIN UPR TROUGH...AND THE CONTINUED INFLOW OF VERY
RICH GULF AIR...SUGGEST THAT A SEPARATE MCS OR TWO MAY FORM OVER S
CNTRL TX. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE INTO A
LARGER-SCALE...FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...EXTENDING THE
RISK FOR DMGG WIND AND HAIL FROM EMBEDDED BOWS E/ESE ACROSS THE TX
CSTL PLN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PARTS OF TX ULTIMATELY MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK IN LATER
OTLKS AS MESOSCALE CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED BUOYANCY AND LOW-LVL
FORCING FOR ASCENT BECOME MORE FOCUSED THAN THEY APPEAR ATTM.

...SERN STATES...
SCTD DIURNAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER CNTRL FL TODAY...WHERE SFC
HEATING SHOULD BOOST AFTN SBCAPE TO AROUND 2000 J/JG. COUPLED WITH
SEASONABLY STRONG /40-50 KT/...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUSTAINED
MULTICELLS WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL. THIS RISK
APPEARS GREATEST OVER E CNTRL FL...WHERE CONVERGENCE SHOULD MAXIMIZE
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

A SEPARATE AREA OF SCTD AFTN STORMS MAY FORM ALONG STALLING
BACK-DOOR FRONT IN SC...WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE MODEST WLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPR TROUGH....AND MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT.

..CORFIDI/DEAN.. 04/26/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 261305
SWODY1
SPC AC 261303

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER LARGE PART OF TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHD RISK AREA
FROM THE RIO GRANDE NWD INTO SRN/CNTRL OK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
FROM DEEP S TX INTO THE SRN PLNS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL FL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SC...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE STORMS
SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY.
ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ALSO MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
FOUR CORNERS TROUGH EXPECTED TO TURN EWD AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLNS TNGT/EARLY MON AS 80 KT NLY JET STREAK
NOW OVER THE LWR CO VLY REFORMS E ACROSS FAR W TX...AND UPSTREAM
RIDGE BUILDS N ACROSS THE PAC NW.

AT LWR LVLS...STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW/LEE TROUGHING WILL ALLOW
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR TO SURGE NNW ACROSS CNTRL AND E TX
TODAY...WHILE WEAK NRN STREAM COLD FRONT SETTLE FARTHER S ACROSS OK
AND AR.

...SRN PLNS TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO EXPECTED TO UNFOLD OVER THE SRN PLNS
THIS PERIOD AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPR TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH RAPIDLY MOISTENING LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT AND
STRENGTHENING SHEAR OVER MUCH OF TX AND SRN OK. SETUP APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH VARIABLE STORM MODES AND INTENSITIES
EXPECTED TO SEVERAL FACTORS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC DATA SHOW LEADING EDGE OF RETURNING
MARITIME AIR ATTM EXTENDS FROM NEAR DRT ENE NEAR TYR. SATELLITE ALSO
SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A LEAD UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER CNTRL NM THAT
PRECEDES THE AZ TROUGH.  THIS FEATURE...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER FARTHER
S IN NRN CHIHUAHUA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SFC HEATING...MAY SUPPORT
SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTN OVER PARTS OF W TX. OTHER SCTD
STORMS...ELEVATED ABOVE THE EML...ALSO MAY PERSIST ACROSS S TX AND
ALONG THE MIDDLE TX GULF CST. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SVR.

LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE...HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF SFC
HEATING...RETURNING LOW-LVL MOISTURE...AND INCREASING HEIGHT
FALLS/DCVA EXPECTED TO FOSTER INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF LEE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT/COOL FRONT INTERSECTION OVER NW TX AND SW OK.
GIVEN STRENGTH AND VERTICALLY-VEERING NATURE OF WIND FIELD...THIS
ACTIVITY COULD YIELD SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND AS SBCAPE INCREASES TO
BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 J/KG. A CONDITIONAL RISK ALSO WILL EXIST FOR
MORE ISOLD SVR STORMS TO ARISE FARTHER S ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY
INVOF LOW-LVL MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND OVER N CNTRL TX...AS HEATING
AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE LOCALLY BREACH EML CAP. THESE
STORMS ALSO WILL POTENTIALLY INCLUDE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES GIVEN 40-50 KT
WSWLY DEEP SHEAR.

BY EARLY EVE...THE CNTRL AND N TX STORMS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ONE
OR MORE LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE
STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...ISOLD TORNADOES...AND A SOMEWHAT ENHANCED RISK FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND. LATER TNGT AND EARLY MON...ARRIVAL OF STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS WITH MAIN UPR TROUGH...AND THE CONTINUED INFLOW OF VERY
RICH GULF AIR...SUGGEST THAT A SEPARATE MCS OR TWO MAY FORM OVER S
CNTRL TX. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE INTO A
LARGER-SCALE...FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...EXTENDING THE
RISK FOR DMGG WIND AND HAIL FROM EMBEDDED BOWS E/ESE ACROSS THE TX
CSTL PLN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PARTS OF TX ULTIMATELY MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK IN LATER
OTLKS AS MESOSCALE CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED BUOYANCY AND LOW-LVL
FORCING FOR ASCENT BECOME MORE FOCUSED THAN THEY APPEAR ATTM.

...SERN STATES...
SCTD DIURNAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER CNTRL FL TODAY...WHERE SFC
HEATING SHOULD BOOST AFTN SBCAPE TO AROUND 2000 J/JG. COUPLED WITH
SEASONABLY STRONG /40-50 KT/...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUSTAINED
MULTICELLS WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL. THIS RISK
APPEARS GREATEST OVER E CNTRL FL...WHERE CONVERGENCE SHOULD MAXIMIZE
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

A SEPARATE AREA OF SCTD AFTN STORMS MAY FORM ALONG STALLING
BACK-DOOR FRONT IN SC...WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE MODEST WLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPR TROUGH....AND MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT.

..CORFIDI/DEAN.. 04/26/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 261305
SWODY1
SPC AC 261303

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER LARGE PART OF TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHD RISK AREA
FROM THE RIO GRANDE NWD INTO SRN/CNTRL OK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
FROM DEEP S TX INTO THE SRN PLNS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL FL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SC...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE STORMS
SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY.
ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ALSO MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
FOUR CORNERS TROUGH EXPECTED TO TURN EWD AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLNS TNGT/EARLY MON AS 80 KT NLY JET STREAK
NOW OVER THE LWR CO VLY REFORMS E ACROSS FAR W TX...AND UPSTREAM
RIDGE BUILDS N ACROSS THE PAC NW.

AT LWR LVLS...STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW/LEE TROUGHING WILL ALLOW
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR TO SURGE NNW ACROSS CNTRL AND E TX
TODAY...WHILE WEAK NRN STREAM COLD FRONT SETTLE FARTHER S ACROSS OK
AND AR.

...SRN PLNS TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO EXPECTED TO UNFOLD OVER THE SRN PLNS
THIS PERIOD AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPR TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH RAPIDLY MOISTENING LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT AND
STRENGTHENING SHEAR OVER MUCH OF TX AND SRN OK. SETUP APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH VARIABLE STORM MODES AND INTENSITIES
EXPECTED TO SEVERAL FACTORS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC DATA SHOW LEADING EDGE OF RETURNING
MARITIME AIR ATTM EXTENDS FROM NEAR DRT ENE NEAR TYR. SATELLITE ALSO
SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A LEAD UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER CNTRL NM THAT
PRECEDES THE AZ TROUGH.  THIS FEATURE...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER FARTHER
S IN NRN CHIHUAHUA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SFC HEATING...MAY SUPPORT
SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTN OVER PARTS OF W TX. OTHER SCTD
STORMS...ELEVATED ABOVE THE EML...ALSO MAY PERSIST ACROSS S TX AND
ALONG THE MIDDLE TX GULF CST. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SVR.

LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE...HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF SFC
HEATING...RETURNING LOW-LVL MOISTURE...AND INCREASING HEIGHT
FALLS/DCVA EXPECTED TO FOSTER INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF LEE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT/COOL FRONT INTERSECTION OVER NW TX AND SW OK.
GIVEN STRENGTH AND VERTICALLY-VEERING NATURE OF WIND FIELD...THIS
ACTIVITY COULD YIELD SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND AS SBCAPE INCREASES TO
BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 J/KG. A CONDITIONAL RISK ALSO WILL EXIST FOR
MORE ISOLD SVR STORMS TO ARISE FARTHER S ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY
INVOF LOW-LVL MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND OVER N CNTRL TX...AS HEATING
AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE LOCALLY BREACH EML CAP. THESE
STORMS ALSO WILL POTENTIALLY INCLUDE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES GIVEN 40-50 KT
WSWLY DEEP SHEAR.

BY EARLY EVE...THE CNTRL AND N TX STORMS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ONE
OR MORE LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE
STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...ISOLD TORNADOES...AND A SOMEWHAT ENHANCED RISK FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND. LATER TNGT AND EARLY MON...ARRIVAL OF STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS WITH MAIN UPR TROUGH...AND THE CONTINUED INFLOW OF VERY
RICH GULF AIR...SUGGEST THAT A SEPARATE MCS OR TWO MAY FORM OVER S
CNTRL TX. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE INTO A
LARGER-SCALE...FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...EXTENDING THE
RISK FOR DMGG WIND AND HAIL FROM EMBEDDED BOWS E/ESE ACROSS THE TX
CSTL PLN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PARTS OF TX ULTIMATELY MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK IN LATER
OTLKS AS MESOSCALE CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED BUOYANCY AND LOW-LVL
FORCING FOR ASCENT BECOME MORE FOCUSED THAN THEY APPEAR ATTM.

...SERN STATES...
SCTD DIURNAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER CNTRL FL TODAY...WHERE SFC
HEATING SHOULD BOOST AFTN SBCAPE TO AROUND 2000 J/JG. COUPLED WITH
SEASONABLY STRONG /40-50 KT/...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUSTAINED
MULTICELLS WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL. THIS RISK
APPEARS GREATEST OVER E CNTRL FL...WHERE CONVERGENCE SHOULD MAXIMIZE
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

A SEPARATE AREA OF SCTD AFTN STORMS MAY FORM ALONG STALLING
BACK-DOOR FRONT IN SC...WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE MODEST WLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPR TROUGH....AND MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT.

..CORFIDI/DEAN.. 04/26/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 261305
SWODY1
SPC AC 261303

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER LARGE PART OF TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHD RISK AREA
FROM THE RIO GRANDE NWD INTO SRN/CNTRL OK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
FROM DEEP S TX INTO THE SRN PLNS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL FL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SC...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE STORMS
SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY.
ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ALSO MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
FOUR CORNERS TROUGH EXPECTED TO TURN EWD AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLNS TNGT/EARLY MON AS 80 KT NLY JET STREAK
NOW OVER THE LWR CO VLY REFORMS E ACROSS FAR W TX...AND UPSTREAM
RIDGE BUILDS N ACROSS THE PAC NW.

AT LWR LVLS...STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW/LEE TROUGHING WILL ALLOW
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR TO SURGE NNW ACROSS CNTRL AND E TX
TODAY...WHILE WEAK NRN STREAM COLD FRONT SETTLE FARTHER S ACROSS OK
AND AR.

...SRN PLNS TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO EXPECTED TO UNFOLD OVER THE SRN PLNS
THIS PERIOD AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPR TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH RAPIDLY MOISTENING LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT AND
STRENGTHENING SHEAR OVER MUCH OF TX AND SRN OK. SETUP APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH VARIABLE STORM MODES AND INTENSITIES
EXPECTED TO SEVERAL FACTORS.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC DATA SHOW LEADING EDGE OF RETURNING
MARITIME AIR ATTM EXTENDS FROM NEAR DRT ENE NEAR TYR. SATELLITE ALSO
SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A LEAD UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER CNTRL NM THAT
PRECEDES THE AZ TROUGH.  THIS FEATURE...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER FARTHER
S IN NRN CHIHUAHUA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SFC HEATING...MAY SUPPORT
SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTN OVER PARTS OF W TX. OTHER SCTD
STORMS...ELEVATED ABOVE THE EML...ALSO MAY PERSIST ACROSS S TX AND
ALONG THE MIDDLE TX GULF CST. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SVR.

LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE...HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF SFC
HEATING...RETURNING LOW-LVL MOISTURE...AND INCREASING HEIGHT
FALLS/DCVA EXPECTED TO FOSTER INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF LEE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT/COOL FRONT INTERSECTION OVER NW TX AND SW OK.
GIVEN STRENGTH AND VERTICALLY-VEERING NATURE OF WIND FIELD...THIS
ACTIVITY COULD YIELD SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND AS SBCAPE INCREASES TO
BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 J/KG. A CONDITIONAL RISK ALSO WILL EXIST FOR
MORE ISOLD SVR STORMS TO ARISE FARTHER S ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY
INVOF LOW-LVL MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND OVER N CNTRL TX...AS HEATING
AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE LOCALLY BREACH EML CAP. THESE
STORMS ALSO WILL POTENTIALLY INCLUDE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES GIVEN 40-50 KT
WSWLY DEEP SHEAR.

BY EARLY EVE...THE CNTRL AND N TX STORMS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ONE
OR MORE LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE
STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...ISOLD TORNADOES...AND A SOMEWHAT ENHANCED RISK FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND. LATER TNGT AND EARLY MON...ARRIVAL OF STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS WITH MAIN UPR TROUGH...AND THE CONTINUED INFLOW OF VERY
RICH GULF AIR...SUGGEST THAT A SEPARATE MCS OR TWO MAY FORM OVER S
CNTRL TX. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE INTO A
LARGER-SCALE...FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...EXTENDING THE
RISK FOR DMGG WIND AND HAIL FROM EMBEDDED BOWS E/ESE ACROSS THE TX
CSTL PLN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PARTS OF TX ULTIMATELY MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK IN LATER
OTLKS AS MESOSCALE CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED BUOYANCY AND LOW-LVL
FORCING FOR ASCENT BECOME MORE FOCUSED THAN THEY APPEAR ATTM.

...SERN STATES...
SCTD DIURNAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER CNTRL FL TODAY...WHERE SFC
HEATING SHOULD BOOST AFTN SBCAPE TO AROUND 2000 J/JG. COUPLED WITH
SEASONABLY STRONG /40-50 KT/...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUSTAINED
MULTICELLS WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL. THIS RISK
APPEARS GREATEST OVER E CNTRL FL...WHERE CONVERGENCE SHOULD MAXIMIZE
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

A SEPARATE AREA OF SCTD AFTN STORMS MAY FORM ALONG STALLING
BACK-DOOR FRONT IN SC...WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE MODEST WLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPR TROUGH....AND MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT.

..CORFIDI/DEAN.. 04/26/2015





000
ACUS03 KWNS 260727
SWODY3
SPC AC 260726

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

...GULF COAST...

LOW-LATITUDE SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS TX INTO THE
FL PANHANDLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE
SHOULD INDUCE SFC LOW OVER TX DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD WHICH WILL
TRACK SEWD INTO THE NRN GULF BASIN MONDAY EVENING.  LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...AMPLE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF SYNOPTIC FRONT WITHIN WARM
ADVECTION ZONE.  IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW FAR INLAND TRUE
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF SFC LOW
TUESDAY...THOUGH LATEST NAM/ECMWF SUGGEST SFC LOW WILL TRACK INLAND
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.  HAVE INTRODUCED
CATEGORY ONE SEVERE RISK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE NOTED
ACROSS THE SRN U.S.

..DARROW.. 04/26/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 260727
SWODY3
SPC AC 260726

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

...GULF COAST...

LOW-LATITUDE SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS TX INTO THE
FL PANHANDLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE
SHOULD INDUCE SFC LOW OVER TX DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD WHICH WILL
TRACK SEWD INTO THE NRN GULF BASIN MONDAY EVENING.  LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...AMPLE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF SYNOPTIC FRONT WITHIN WARM
ADVECTION ZONE.  IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW FAR INLAND TRUE
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF SFC LOW
TUESDAY...THOUGH LATEST NAM/ECMWF SUGGEST SFC LOW WILL TRACK INLAND
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.  HAVE INTRODUCED
CATEGORY ONE SEVERE RISK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE NOTED
ACROSS THE SRN U.S.

..DARROW.. 04/26/2015





000
ACUS03 KWNS 260727
SWODY3
SPC AC 260726

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES TUESDAY.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

...GULF COAST...

LOW-LATITUDE SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS TX INTO THE
FL PANHANDLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE
SHOULD INDUCE SFC LOW OVER TX DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD WHICH WILL
TRACK SEWD INTO THE NRN GULF BASIN MONDAY EVENING.  LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...AMPLE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF SYNOPTIC FRONT WITHIN WARM
ADVECTION ZONE.  IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW FAR INLAND TRUE
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM AHEAD OF SFC LOW
TUESDAY...THOUGH LATEST NAM/ECMWF SUGGEST SFC LOW WILL TRACK INLAND
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.  HAVE INTRODUCED
CATEGORY ONE SEVERE RISK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE NOTED
ACROSS THE SRN U.S.

..DARROW.. 04/26/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 260601
SWODY1
SPC AC 260600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
PARTS OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN LA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL MIGRATE EWD THIS
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS AZ/NM...LIKELY EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY.  MEANWHILE...A STATIC
PATTERN FEATURING A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID MO VALLEY
WILL BE LOCATED TO THE W OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MAINTAINING A
LARGE-SCALE WSW-ENE ORIENTED TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES.  A COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE SWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES.  THE WRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NRN LA TO THE RED RIVER TO NORTHWEST
TX/NERN NM WHERE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING.  A NORTH-SOUTH
DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SHARPEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL AND NW TX
DURING THE DAY.

...SRN PLAINS...
SURFACE MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX.  POLEWARD MOISTENING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY AS SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT
FALLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SWRN STATES TROUGH.  SURFACE DEW
POINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S SHOULD REACH THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION
BY AFTERNOON...WHILE UPPER 60S REACH THE VICINITY OF WACO TX BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

STRONG HEATING IS FORECAST OVER SWRN TX AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
AT LEAST 8 C/KM WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE WEST EDGE OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN/DRY LINE ACROSS CNTRL TX DURING THE DAY LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF
1500-3000 J PER KG/ ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.  HEIGHT FALLS WILL
OVERSPREAD W-CNTRL INTO CENTRAL TX AS THE NOSE OF A 70-80-KT H5
SPEED MAX OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA MOVES INTO SW TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL EXISTING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
AS EARLY AS 18-20Z IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN TX AS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z
NAM4/NSSL4/NMM4.  VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE PRIMARILY OF ISOLATED LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.  HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE E/NEWD INTO RICHER MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE
DRYLINE.  THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE E/NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NRN TX WITH
SIMILAR SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.  EACH ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE
INTO OK WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS AS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITHIN A INCREASING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT PER LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WAA AND ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE SWLY JET
STREAK SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE ARKLATEX.

FARTHER NW...MODELS SHOW AN ELY-COMPONENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW INVOF THE
SWD SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE OVER OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.  INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ARCING DRYLINE INTO FAR SWRN OK AND THE TX
PANHANDLE WILL PROBABLY ERODE THE CAP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE BUOYANCY DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AXIS
OF 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS.  STRONG VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL
FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS /-16 TO -18 DEG C AT H5/ COULD SUPPORT LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL GROWTH DURING THE MATURE PHASE OF THE STORM LIFE
CYCLE.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
ASIDE FROM FL...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK ACROSS
THIS REGION TODAY.  HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT.

..PETERS/ROGERS.. 04/26/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 260601
SWODY1
SPC AC 260600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
PARTS OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN LA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL MIGRATE EWD THIS
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS AZ/NM...LIKELY EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY.  MEANWHILE...A STATIC
PATTERN FEATURING A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID MO VALLEY
WILL BE LOCATED TO THE W OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MAINTAINING A
LARGE-SCALE WSW-ENE ORIENTED TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES.  A COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE SWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES.  THE WRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NRN LA TO THE RED RIVER TO NORTHWEST
TX/NERN NM WHERE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING.  A NORTH-SOUTH
DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SHARPEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL AND NW TX
DURING THE DAY.

...SRN PLAINS...
SURFACE MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX.  POLEWARD MOISTENING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY AS SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT
FALLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SWRN STATES TROUGH.  SURFACE DEW
POINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S SHOULD REACH THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION
BY AFTERNOON...WHILE UPPER 60S REACH THE VICINITY OF WACO TX BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

STRONG HEATING IS FORECAST OVER SWRN TX AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
AT LEAST 8 C/KM WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE WEST EDGE OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN/DRY LINE ACROSS CNTRL TX DURING THE DAY LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF
1500-3000 J PER KG/ ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.  HEIGHT FALLS WILL
OVERSPREAD W-CNTRL INTO CENTRAL TX AS THE NOSE OF A 70-80-KT H5
SPEED MAX OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA MOVES INTO SW TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL EXISTING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
AS EARLY AS 18-20Z IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN TX AS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z
NAM4/NSSL4/NMM4.  VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE PRIMARILY OF ISOLATED LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.  HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE E/NEWD INTO RICHER MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE
DRYLINE.  THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE E/NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NRN TX WITH
SIMILAR SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.  EACH ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE
INTO OK WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS AS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITHIN A INCREASING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT PER LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WAA AND ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE SWLY JET
STREAK SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE ARKLATEX.

FARTHER NW...MODELS SHOW AN ELY-COMPONENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW INVOF THE
SWD SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE OVER OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.  INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ARCING DRYLINE INTO FAR SWRN OK AND THE TX
PANHANDLE WILL PROBABLY ERODE THE CAP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE BUOYANCY DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AXIS
OF 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS.  STRONG VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL
FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS /-16 TO -18 DEG C AT H5/ COULD SUPPORT LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL GROWTH DURING THE MATURE PHASE OF THE STORM LIFE
CYCLE.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
ASIDE FROM FL...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK ACROSS
THIS REGION TODAY.  HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT.

..PETERS/ROGERS.. 04/26/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 260601
SWODY1
SPC AC 260600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
PARTS OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN LA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL MIGRATE EWD THIS
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS AZ/NM...LIKELY EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY.  MEANWHILE...A STATIC
PATTERN FEATURING A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID MO VALLEY
WILL BE LOCATED TO THE W OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MAINTAINING A
LARGE-SCALE WSW-ENE ORIENTED TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES.  A COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE SWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES.  THE WRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM NRN LA TO THE RED RIVER TO NORTHWEST
TX/NERN NM WHERE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING.  A NORTH-SOUTH
DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SHARPEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL AND NW TX
DURING THE DAY.

...SRN PLAINS...
SURFACE MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX.  POLEWARD MOISTENING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY AS SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT
FALLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SWRN STATES TROUGH.  SURFACE DEW
POINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S SHOULD REACH THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION
BY AFTERNOON...WHILE UPPER 60S REACH THE VICINITY OF WACO TX BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

STRONG HEATING IS FORECAST OVER SWRN TX AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
AT LEAST 8 C/KM WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE WEST EDGE OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN/DRY LINE ACROSS CNTRL TX DURING THE DAY LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF
1500-3000 J PER KG/ ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.  HEIGHT FALLS WILL
OVERSPREAD W-CNTRL INTO CENTRAL TX AS THE NOSE OF A 70-80-KT H5
SPEED MAX OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA MOVES INTO SW TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL EXISTING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
AS EARLY AS 18-20Z IN CENTRAL TO NORTHERN TX AS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z
NAM4/NSSL4/NMM4.  VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL
FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE PRIMARILY OF ISOLATED LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.  HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE E/NEWD INTO RICHER MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE
DRYLINE.  THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE E/NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NRN TX WITH
SIMILAR SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.  EACH ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE
INTO OK WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS AS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITHIN A INCREASING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT PER LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL WAA AND ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE SWLY JET
STREAK SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE ARKLATEX.

FARTHER NW...MODELS SHOW AN ELY-COMPONENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW INVOF THE
SWD SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE OVER OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.  INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ARCING DRYLINE INTO FAR SWRN OK AND THE TX
PANHANDLE WILL PROBABLY ERODE THE CAP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE BUOYANCY DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AXIS
OF 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS.  STRONG VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL
FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS /-16 TO -18 DEG C AT H5/ COULD SUPPORT LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL GROWTH DURING THE MATURE PHASE OF THE STORM LIFE
CYCLE.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
ASIDE FROM FL...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK ACROSS
THIS REGION TODAY.  HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS DEVELOPING NEAR THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT.

..PETERS/ROGERS.. 04/26/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 260512
SWODY2
SPC AC 260510

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NCNTRL TX TO THE CNTRL
GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLGT RISK...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.

...TX TO CNTRL GULF COAST...

STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY INTO NRN MEXICO BEFORE EJECTING EWD INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY1 PERIOD.  EXIT REGION OF
THIS JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE DRY LINE ACROSS WCNTRL TX AND
PRONOUNCED DIFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT.  NRN EDGE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
INFLUENCED BY POSITION OF COLD FRONT/EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD
BE DRAPED ACROSS NCNTRL TX AT DAYBREAK MONDAY.  THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT GREATEST BUOYANCY MAY BE DISPLACED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN LATEST NAM SUGGESTS.  AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS SWRN INTO CNTRL TX MONDAY AFTERNOON...JUST WEST OF
SFC FRONT/DRY LINE.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
OK WITHIN STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD/DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY MID DAY AS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION.  STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...THOUGH STORM MERGERS
AND CLUSTERS APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
 LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH TSTMS THAT EVOLVE ACROSS TX DURING THE DAY.  ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST WILL DO SO WITHIN A WEAKER
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND HAIL SHOULD GENERALLY BE SUB-SEVERE.

..DARROW.. 04/26/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 260512
SWODY2
SPC AC 260510

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NCNTRL TX TO THE CNTRL
GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLGT RISK...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.

...TX TO CNTRL GULF COAST...

STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY INTO NRN MEXICO BEFORE EJECTING EWD INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY1 PERIOD.  EXIT REGION OF
THIS JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE DRY LINE ACROSS WCNTRL TX AND
PRONOUNCED DIFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT.  NRN EDGE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
INFLUENCED BY POSITION OF COLD FRONT/EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD
BE DRAPED ACROSS NCNTRL TX AT DAYBREAK MONDAY.  THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT GREATEST BUOYANCY MAY BE DISPLACED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN LATEST NAM SUGGESTS.  AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS SWRN INTO CNTRL TX MONDAY AFTERNOON...JUST WEST OF
SFC FRONT/DRY LINE.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
OK WITHIN STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD/DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY MID DAY AS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION.  STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...THOUGH STORM MERGERS
AND CLUSTERS APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
 LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH TSTMS THAT EVOLVE ACROSS TX DURING THE DAY.  ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST WILL DO SO WITHIN A WEAKER
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND HAIL SHOULD GENERALLY BE SUB-SEVERE.

..DARROW.. 04/26/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 260512
SWODY2
SPC AC 260510

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NCNTRL TX TO THE CNTRL
GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLGT RISK...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.

...TX TO CNTRL GULF COAST...

STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY INTO NRN MEXICO BEFORE EJECTING EWD INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY1 PERIOD.  EXIT REGION OF
THIS JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE DRY LINE ACROSS WCNTRL TX AND
PRONOUNCED DIFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT.  NRN EDGE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATLY
INFLUENCED BY POSITION OF COLD FRONT/EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD
BE DRAPED ACROSS NCNTRL TX AT DAYBREAK MONDAY.  THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT GREATEST BUOYANCY MAY BE DISPLACED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN LATEST NAM SUGGESTS.  AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS EWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS SWRN INTO CNTRL TX MONDAY AFTERNOON...JUST WEST OF
SFC FRONT/DRY LINE.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
OK WITHIN STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD/DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY MID DAY AS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION.  STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...THOUGH STORM MERGERS
AND CLUSTERS APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.
 LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH TSTMS THAT EVOLVE ACROSS TX DURING THE DAY.  ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST WILL DO SO WITHIN A WEAKER
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND HAIL SHOULD GENERALLY BE SUB-SEVERE.

..DARROW.. 04/26/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 260220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260219
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-260345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0463
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN KY...SRN WV...SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116...

VALID 260219Z - 260345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 116 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z.  AN ADDITIONAL WW EAST OF 116...AND NORTH/EAST
OF WW 118 IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF FORCING ASSOCIATE WITH THE REMNANT
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD AROUND 40-45 KT...AND
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE CREST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 04-05Z.  UNTIL THEN...ISOLATED
DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE COOL SIDE
OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...INCLUDING AREAS PERHAPS JUST
NORTH OF WW 118.  A FAIRLY COLD/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS
REGION IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT TO LARGE
HAIL.  WITH INTENSITY TRENDS TO THIS ACTIVITY HAVING DIMINISHED
COMPARED TO A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...EVEN THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS INCREASINGLY SMALL.

..KERR.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   37738318 37528212 37308111 36798132 36788164 36898196
            36988266 37028329 37218363 37408386 37638360 37738318





000
ACUS11 KWNS 260220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260219
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-260345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0463
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN KY...SRN WV...SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116...

VALID 260219Z - 260345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 116 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z.  AN ADDITIONAL WW EAST OF 116...AND NORTH/EAST
OF WW 118 IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF FORCING ASSOCIATE WITH THE REMNANT
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD AROUND 40-45 KT...AND
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE CREST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 04-05Z.  UNTIL THEN...ISOLATED
DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE COOL SIDE
OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...INCLUDING AREAS PERHAPS JUST
NORTH OF WW 118.  A FAIRLY COLD/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS
REGION IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT TO LARGE
HAIL.  WITH INTENSITY TRENDS TO THIS ACTIVITY HAVING DIMINISHED
COMPARED TO A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...EVEN THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS INCREASINGLY SMALL.

..KERR.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   37738318 37528212 37308111 36798132 36788164 36898196
            36988266 37028329 37218363 37408386 37638360 37738318





000
ACUS11 KWNS 260220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260219
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-260345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0463
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN KY...SRN WV...SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116...

VALID 260219Z - 260345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 116 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z.  AN ADDITIONAL WW EAST OF 116...AND NORTH/EAST
OF WW 118 IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF FORCING ASSOCIATE WITH THE REMNANT
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD AROUND 40-45 KT...AND
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE CREST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 04-05Z.  UNTIL THEN...ISOLATED
DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE COOL SIDE
OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...INCLUDING AREAS PERHAPS JUST
NORTH OF WW 118.  A FAIRLY COLD/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS
REGION IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT TO LARGE
HAIL.  WITH INTENSITY TRENDS TO THIS ACTIVITY HAVING DIMINISHED
COMPARED TO A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...EVEN THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS INCREASINGLY SMALL.

..KERR.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   37738318 37528212 37308111 36798132 36788164 36898196
            36988266 37028329 37218363 37408386 37638360 37738318





000
ACUS11 KWNS 260220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260219
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-260345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0463
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN KY...SRN WV...SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116...

VALID 260219Z - 260345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 116 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z.  AN ADDITIONAL WW EAST OF 116...AND NORTH/EAST
OF WW 118 IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF FORCING ASSOCIATE WITH THE REMNANT
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD AROUND 40-45 KT...AND
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE CREST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 04-05Z.  UNTIL THEN...ISOLATED
DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE COOL SIDE
OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...INCLUDING AREAS PERHAPS JUST
NORTH OF WW 118.  A FAIRLY COLD/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS
REGION IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT TO LARGE
HAIL.  WITH INTENSITY TRENDS TO THIS ACTIVITY HAVING DIMINISHED
COMPARED TO A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...EVEN THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS INCREASINGLY SMALL.

..KERR.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   37738318 37528212 37308111 36798132 36788164 36898196
            36988266 37028329 37218363 37408386 37638360 37738318






000
ACUS11 KWNS 260220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260219
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-260345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0463
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN KY...SRN WV...SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116...

VALID 260219Z - 260345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 116 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z.  AN ADDITIONAL WW EAST OF 116...AND NORTH/EAST
OF WW 118 IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF FORCING ASSOCIATE WITH THE REMNANT
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD AROUND 40-45 KT...AND
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE CREST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 04-05Z.  UNTIL THEN...ISOLATED
DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE COOL SIDE
OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...INCLUDING AREAS PERHAPS JUST
NORTH OF WW 118.  A FAIRLY COLD/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS
REGION IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT TO LARGE
HAIL.  WITH INTENSITY TRENDS TO THIS ACTIVITY HAVING DIMINISHED
COMPARED TO A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...EVEN THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS INCREASINGLY SMALL.

..KERR.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   37738318 37528212 37308111 36798132 36788164 36898196
            36988266 37028329 37218363 37408386 37638360 37738318






000
ACUS11 KWNS 260220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260219
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-260345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0463
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN KY...SRN WV...SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116...

VALID 260219Z - 260345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 116 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z.  AN ADDITIONAL WW EAST OF 116...AND NORTH/EAST
OF WW 118 IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF FORCING ASSOCIATE WITH THE REMNANT
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD AROUND 40-45 KT...AND
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE CREST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 04-05Z.  UNTIL THEN...ISOLATED
DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE COOL SIDE
OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE...INCLUDING AREAS PERHAPS JUST
NORTH OF WW 118.  A FAIRLY COLD/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS
REGION IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT TO LARGE
HAIL.  WITH INTENSITY TRENDS TO THIS ACTIVITY HAVING DIMINISHED
COMPARED TO A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...EVEN THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS INCREASINGLY SMALL.

..KERR.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   37738318 37528212 37308111 36798132 36788164 36898196
            36988266 37028329 37218363 37408386 37638360 37738318





000
ACUS01 KWNS 260102
SWODY1
SPC AC 260100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF KY
AND THE ERN HALF OF TN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDS FROM THE TN VALLEY
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW
TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN KY...WHILE A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
NC/SC BORDER.  THIS LATTER LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN NC INTO NRN SC...AND
THEN ENEWD THROUGH SRN TO ERN NC TO OFFSHORE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED WEAKENING AND SHEARING OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD
THROUGH THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS.  THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MIDLEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME LOCATED ALONG
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A NERN U.S. TROUGH.  THE WRN KY SURFACE LOW
WILL UNDERGO FURTHER WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD THROUGH
TN...AR...AND OK BY 12Z.  MEANWHILE...THE NC/SC SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN TONIGHT...AND SHOULD MOVE EWD OFFSHORE THE NC COAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

...NRN FL/GA/SRN AND ERN SC/SERN NC...
MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN THE GREATEST ACROSS THIS
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND
DEEP-LAYER WLY WINDS SUPPORTING STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.  HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD
BE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM NRN FL THROUGH SRN GA TO ERN SC
AND POSSIBLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SERN NC.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM DETAILS WITH A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS NRN FL...REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 462.

...KY/TN...
THE ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THIS EVENING SUGGESTING A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN COVERAGE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EWD AND THE COLD
FRONT ADVANCES SWD.

..PETERS.. 04/26/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 260102
SWODY1
SPC AC 260100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF KY
AND THE ERN HALF OF TN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDS FROM THE TN VALLEY
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW
TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN KY...WHILE A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
NC/SC BORDER.  THIS LATTER LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN NC INTO NRN SC...AND
THEN ENEWD THROUGH SRN TO ERN NC TO OFFSHORE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED WEAKENING AND SHEARING OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD
THROUGH THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS.  THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MIDLEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME LOCATED ALONG
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A NERN U.S. TROUGH.  THE WRN KY SURFACE LOW
WILL UNDERGO FURTHER WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD THROUGH
TN...AR...AND OK BY 12Z.  MEANWHILE...THE NC/SC SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN TONIGHT...AND SHOULD MOVE EWD OFFSHORE THE NC COAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

...NRN FL/GA/SRN AND ERN SC/SERN NC...
MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN THE GREATEST ACROSS THIS
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND
DEEP-LAYER WLY WINDS SUPPORTING STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.  HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD
BE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM NRN FL THROUGH SRN GA TO ERN SC
AND POSSIBLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SERN NC.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM DETAILS WITH A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS NRN FL...REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 462.

...KY/TN...
THE ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THIS EVENING SUGGESTING A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN COVERAGE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EWD AND THE COLD
FRONT ADVANCES SWD.

..PETERS.. 04/26/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 260102
SWODY1
SPC AC 260100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS OF KY
AND THE ERN HALF OF TN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDS FROM THE TN VALLEY
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW
TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN KY...WHILE A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
NC/SC BORDER.  THIS LATTER LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS LOCATED ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN NC INTO NRN SC...AND
THEN ENEWD THROUGH SRN TO ERN NC TO OFFSHORE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED WEAKENING AND SHEARING OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD
THROUGH THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS.  THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO MIDLEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME LOCATED ALONG
THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A NERN U.S. TROUGH.  THE WRN KY SURFACE LOW
WILL UNDERGO FURTHER WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD THROUGH
TN...AR...AND OK BY 12Z.  MEANWHILE...THE NC/SC SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN TONIGHT...AND SHOULD MOVE EWD OFFSHORE THE NC COAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

...NRN FL/GA/SRN AND ERN SC/SERN NC...
MODELS SUGGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN THE GREATEST ACROSS THIS
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND
DEEP-LAYER WLY WINDS SUPPORTING STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.  HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREATS SHOULD
BE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM NRN FL THROUGH SRN GA TO ERN SC
AND POSSIBLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SERN NC.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM DETAILS WITH A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS NRN FL...REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 462.

...KY/TN...
THE ONSET OF DIABATIC COOLING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DIMINISHING
INSTABILITY THIS EVENING SUGGESTING A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN COVERAGE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EWD AND THE COLD
FRONT ADVANCES SWD.

..PETERS.. 04/26/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 260058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260057
FLZ000-260200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 260057Z - 260200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TSTM CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NRN FL PENINSULA BETWEEN 0130-0200Z. A STRONG
TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR WIND THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS...BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF TSTMS WAS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
ERN GULF OF MEXICO AT AROUND 40 KT...ALONG/S OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WRN SHORES OF THE NRN FL
PENINSULA BETWEEN 0130-0200Z. CURRENT RADAR DEPICTION OF THESE TSTMS
SUGGEST LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION IS NOT PARTICULARLY ROBUST.
HOWEVER...MODERATE-STRONG MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW ALONG WITH RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA...AND
COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS IF
CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN OR INCREASE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED...AND A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   28938083 28628112 28658261 29008296 29268314 29748298
            29818205 29718122 28938083





000
ACUS11 KWNS 260058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260057
FLZ000-260200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 260057Z - 260200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TSTM CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NRN FL PENINSULA BETWEEN 0130-0200Z. A STRONG
TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR WIND THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS...BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF TSTMS WAS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
ERN GULF OF MEXICO AT AROUND 40 KT...ALONG/S OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WRN SHORES OF THE NRN FL
PENINSULA BETWEEN 0130-0200Z. CURRENT RADAR DEPICTION OF THESE TSTMS
SUGGEST LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION IS NOT PARTICULARLY ROBUST.
HOWEVER...MODERATE-STRONG MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW ALONG WITH RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA...AND
COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS IF
CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN OR INCREASE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED...AND A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   28938083 28628112 28658261 29008296 29268314 29748298
            29818205 29718122 28938083





000
ACUS11 KWNS 260058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260057
FLZ000-260200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 260057Z - 260200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TSTM CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NRN FL PENINSULA BETWEEN 0130-0200Z. A STRONG
TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR WIND THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS...BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF TSTMS WAS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
ERN GULF OF MEXICO AT AROUND 40 KT...ALONG/S OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WRN SHORES OF THE NRN FL
PENINSULA BETWEEN 0130-0200Z. CURRENT RADAR DEPICTION OF THESE TSTMS
SUGGEST LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION IS NOT PARTICULARLY ROBUST.
HOWEVER...MODERATE-STRONG MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW ALONG WITH RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA...AND
COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS IF
CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN OR INCREASE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
HOWEVER...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED...AND A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   28938083 28628112 28658261 29008296 29268314 29748298
            29818205 29718122 28938083






000
ACUS11 KWNS 252320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252319
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-260015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN/CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 114...115...

VALID 252319Z - 260015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
114...115...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DMGG WIND GUST THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH AN EWD MOVING
QLCS ACROSS SRN/CNTRL GA AND NRN FL. PER COORDINATION WITH WFO
JACKSONVILLE...WW 114 HAS BEEN EXPANDED SPATIALLY TO INCLUDE ALL OF
SERN GA.

DISCUSSION...QLCS WITH A LEWP STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD
ACROSS SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. CONVECTION ALONG THE SRN PORTION
OF THE LINE IS NOT AS ROBUST/WELL-ORGANIZED...WITH THE GREATEST
RELATIVE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS LOCATED OVER SRN GA. INITIALLY
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS N OF THE QLCS ARE UNDERGOING STORM INTERACTIONS
WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW...AND ARE CONGEALING
WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE LINE. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL REMAIN DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND THIS SHOULD EXTEND
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE EVENING AS RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
MAINTAINS SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. EXTRAPOLATION
OF CURRENT MOTION SUGGESTS THIS LINE WILL REACH THE COAST 02-03Z.

..ROGERS.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   29618512 30028559 31298508 32838472 33088347 33038240
            32718221 32028233 31498173 31048144 30688160 30328293
            29478386 29618512





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252319
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-260015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN/CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 114...115...

VALID 252319Z - 260015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
114...115...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DMGG WIND GUST THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH AN EWD MOVING
QLCS ACROSS SRN/CNTRL GA AND NRN FL. PER COORDINATION WITH WFO
JACKSONVILLE...WW 114 HAS BEEN EXPANDED SPATIALLY TO INCLUDE ALL OF
SERN GA.

DISCUSSION...QLCS WITH A LEWP STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD
ACROSS SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. CONVECTION ALONG THE SRN PORTION
OF THE LINE IS NOT AS ROBUST/WELL-ORGANIZED...WITH THE GREATEST
RELATIVE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS LOCATED OVER SRN GA. INITIALLY
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS N OF THE QLCS ARE UNDERGOING STORM INTERACTIONS
WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW...AND ARE CONGEALING
WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE LINE. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL REMAIN DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND THIS SHOULD EXTEND
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE EVENING AS RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
MAINTAINS SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. EXTRAPOLATION
OF CURRENT MOTION SUGGESTS THIS LINE WILL REACH THE COAST 02-03Z.

..ROGERS.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   29618512 30028559 31298508 32838472 33088347 33038240
            32718221 32028233 31498173 31048144 30688160 30328293
            29478386 29618512






000
ACUS11 KWNS 252320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252319
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-260015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN/CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 114...115...

VALID 252319Z - 260015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
114...115...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DMGG WIND GUST THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH AN EWD MOVING
QLCS ACROSS SRN/CNTRL GA AND NRN FL. PER COORDINATION WITH WFO
JACKSONVILLE...WW 114 HAS BEEN EXPANDED SPATIALLY TO INCLUDE ALL OF
SERN GA.

DISCUSSION...QLCS WITH A LEWP STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD
ACROSS SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. CONVECTION ALONG THE SRN PORTION
OF THE LINE IS NOT AS ROBUST/WELL-ORGANIZED...WITH THE GREATEST
RELATIVE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS LOCATED OVER SRN GA. INITIALLY
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS N OF THE QLCS ARE UNDERGOING STORM INTERACTIONS
WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW...AND ARE CONGEALING
WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE LINE. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL REMAIN DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND THIS SHOULD EXTEND
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE EVENING AS RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
MAINTAINS SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. EXTRAPOLATION
OF CURRENT MOTION SUGGESTS THIS LINE WILL REACH THE COAST 02-03Z.

..ROGERS.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   29618512 30028559 31298508 32838472 33088347 33038240
            32718221 32028233 31498173 31048144 30688160 30328293
            29478386 29618512





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252319
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-260015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN/CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 114...115...

VALID 252319Z - 260015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
114...115...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DMGG WIND GUST THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH AN EWD MOVING
QLCS ACROSS SRN/CNTRL GA AND NRN FL. PER COORDINATION WITH WFO
JACKSONVILLE...WW 114 HAS BEEN EXPANDED SPATIALLY TO INCLUDE ALL OF
SERN GA.

DISCUSSION...QLCS WITH A LEWP STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD
ACROSS SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. CONVECTION ALONG THE SRN PORTION
OF THE LINE IS NOT AS ROBUST/WELL-ORGANIZED...WITH THE GREATEST
RELATIVE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS LOCATED OVER SRN GA. INITIALLY
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS N OF THE QLCS ARE UNDERGOING STORM INTERACTIONS
WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW...AND ARE CONGEALING
WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE LINE. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL REMAIN DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND THIS SHOULD EXTEND
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE EVENING AS RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
MAINTAINS SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. EXTRAPOLATION
OF CURRENT MOTION SUGGESTS THIS LINE WILL REACH THE COAST 02-03Z.

..ROGERS.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   29618512 30028559 31298508 32838472 33088347 33038240
            32718221 32028233 31498173 31048144 30688160 30328293
            29478386 29618512





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252319
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-260015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN/CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 114...115...

VALID 252319Z - 260015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
114...115...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DMGG WIND GUST THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH AN EWD MOVING
QLCS ACROSS SRN/CNTRL GA AND NRN FL. PER COORDINATION WITH WFO
JACKSONVILLE...WW 114 HAS BEEN EXPANDED SPATIALLY TO INCLUDE ALL OF
SERN GA.

DISCUSSION...QLCS WITH A LEWP STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD
ACROSS SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. CONVECTION ALONG THE SRN PORTION
OF THE LINE IS NOT AS ROBUST/WELL-ORGANIZED...WITH THE GREATEST
RELATIVE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS LOCATED OVER SRN GA. INITIALLY
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS N OF THE QLCS ARE UNDERGOING STORM INTERACTIONS
WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW...AND ARE CONGEALING
WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE LINE. HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL REMAIN DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND THIS SHOULD EXTEND
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE EVENING AS RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
MAINTAINS SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. EXTRAPOLATION
OF CURRENT MOTION SUGGESTS THIS LINE WILL REACH THE COAST 02-03Z.

..ROGERS.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   29618512 30028559 31298508 32838472 33088347 33038240
            32718221 32028233 31498173 31048144 30688160 30328293
            29478386 29618512





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252314
KYZ000-TNZ000-260045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN KY AND ADJACENT NRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116...

VALID 252314Z - 260045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY...PRIMARILY...A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
BORDER THROUGH 00-02Z.  TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MIDDLE
AND EASTERN TENNESSEE.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ELONGATING REMNANTS OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AND SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF LOUISVILLE.  AIDED BY WEAK TO
MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH
40-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...CONVECTION HAS BEEN GROWING UPSCALE
INTO AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THE PAST
FEW HOURS.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE BORDER THROUGH THE 00-02Z TIME
FRAME...WITH UPPER FORCING...GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
A FAIRLY SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.  THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL
QUASI-STATIONARY SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR/NORTH OF JACKSON...WITH RATHER COLD/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
TO THE NORTH PROVIDING A SUBSTANTIVE LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.  HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES...INCLUDING THE
RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO SEVERE
HAIL...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO A CORRIDOR JUST TO THE
WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR...WHILE STRONG...IS
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL.  TORNADIC POTENTIAL REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT RELATIVELY LOW IN
PROBABILITY.

..KERR.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37818618 37658438 37208344 36618432 36528540 36558669
            36808762 37218790 37428644 37818618





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252314
KYZ000-TNZ000-260045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN KY AND ADJACENT NRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116...

VALID 252314Z - 260045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY...PRIMARILY...A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
BORDER THROUGH 00-02Z.  TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MIDDLE
AND EASTERN TENNESSEE.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ELONGATING REMNANTS OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AND SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF LOUISVILLE.  AIDED BY WEAK TO
MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH
40-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...CONVECTION HAS BEEN GROWING UPSCALE
INTO AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THE PAST
FEW HOURS.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE BORDER THROUGH THE 00-02Z TIME
FRAME...WITH UPPER FORCING...GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
A FAIRLY SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.  THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL
QUASI-STATIONARY SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR/NORTH OF JACKSON...WITH RATHER COLD/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
TO THE NORTH PROVIDING A SUBSTANTIVE LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.  HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES...INCLUDING THE
RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO SEVERE
HAIL...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO A CORRIDOR JUST TO THE
WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR...WHILE STRONG...IS
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL.  TORNADIC POTENTIAL REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT RELATIVELY LOW IN
PROBABILITY.

..KERR.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37818618 37658438 37208344 36618432 36528540 36558669
            36808762 37218790 37428644 37818618





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252314
KYZ000-TNZ000-260045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN KY AND ADJACENT NRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116...

VALID 252314Z - 260045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY...PRIMARILY...A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
BORDER THROUGH 00-02Z.  TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MIDDLE
AND EASTERN TENNESSEE.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ELONGATING REMNANTS OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AND SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF LOUISVILLE.  AIDED BY WEAK TO
MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH
40-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...CONVECTION HAS BEEN GROWING UPSCALE
INTO AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THE PAST
FEW HOURS.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE BORDER THROUGH THE 00-02Z TIME
FRAME...WITH UPPER FORCING...GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
A FAIRLY SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.  THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL
QUASI-STATIONARY SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR/NORTH OF JACKSON...WITH RATHER COLD/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
TO THE NORTH PROVIDING A SUBSTANTIVE LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.  HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES...INCLUDING THE
RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO SEVERE
HAIL...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO A CORRIDOR JUST TO THE
WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR...WHILE STRONG...IS
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL.  TORNADIC POTENTIAL REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT RELATIVELY LOW IN
PROBABILITY.

..KERR.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37818618 37658438 37208344 36618432 36528540 36558669
            36808762 37218790 37428644 37818618






000
ACUS11 KWNS 252315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252314
KYZ000-TNZ000-260045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN KY AND ADJACENT NRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116...

VALID 252314Z - 260045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY...PRIMARILY...A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
BORDER THROUGH 00-02Z.  TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MIDDLE
AND EASTERN TENNESSEE.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ELONGATING REMNANTS OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AND SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF LOUISVILLE.  AIDED BY WEAK TO
MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH
40-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...CONVECTION HAS BEEN GROWING UPSCALE
INTO AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THE PAST
FEW HOURS.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE BORDER THROUGH THE 00-02Z TIME
FRAME...WITH UPPER FORCING...GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
A FAIRLY SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.  THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL
QUASI-STATIONARY SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR/NORTH OF JACKSON...WITH RATHER COLD/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
TO THE NORTH PROVIDING A SUBSTANTIVE LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.  HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES...INCLUDING THE
RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO SEVERE
HAIL...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO A CORRIDOR JUST TO THE
WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR...WHILE STRONG...IS
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL.  TORNADIC POTENTIAL REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT RELATIVELY LOW IN
PROBABILITY.

..KERR.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37818618 37658438 37208344 36618432 36528540 36558669
            36808762 37218790 37428644 37818618





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252314
KYZ000-TNZ000-260045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN KY AND ADJACENT NRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116...

VALID 252314Z - 260045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY...PRIMARILY...A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
BORDER THROUGH 00-02Z.  TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MIDDLE
AND EASTERN TENNESSEE.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ELONGATING REMNANTS OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AND SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF LOUISVILLE.  AIDED BY WEAK TO
MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH
40-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...CONVECTION HAS BEEN GROWING UPSCALE
INTO AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THE PAST
FEW HOURS.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE BORDER THROUGH THE 00-02Z TIME
FRAME...WITH UPPER FORCING...GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
A FAIRLY SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.  THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL
QUASI-STATIONARY SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR/NORTH OF JACKSON...WITH RATHER COLD/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
TO THE NORTH PROVIDING A SUBSTANTIVE LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.  HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES...INCLUDING THE
RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO SEVERE
HAIL...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO A CORRIDOR JUST TO THE
WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR...WHILE STRONG...IS
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL.  TORNADIC POTENTIAL REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT RELATIVELY LOW IN
PROBABILITY.

..KERR.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37818618 37658438 37208344 36618432 36528540 36558669
            36808762 37218790 37428644 37818618






000
ACUS11 KWNS 252315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252314
KYZ000-TNZ000-260045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN KY AND ADJACENT NRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116...

VALID 252314Z - 260045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY...PRIMARILY...A RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE
BORDER THROUGH 00-02Z.  TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MIDDLE
AND EASTERN TENNESSEE.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ELONGATING REMNANTS OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AND SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF LOUISVILLE.  AIDED BY WEAK TO
MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH
40-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...CONVECTION HAS BEEN GROWING UPSCALE
INTO AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THE PAST
FEW HOURS.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE BORDER THROUGH THE 00-02Z TIME
FRAME...WITH UPPER FORCING...GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
A FAIRLY SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE.  THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL
QUASI-STATIONARY SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR/NORTH OF JACKSON...WITH RATHER COLD/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
TO THE NORTH PROVIDING A SUBSTANTIVE LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.  HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES...INCLUDING THE
RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO SEVERE
HAIL...ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO A CORRIDOR JUST TO THE
WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR...WHILE STRONG...IS
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL.  TORNADIC POTENTIAL REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT RELATIVELY LOW IN
PROBABILITY.

..KERR.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37818618 37658438 37208344 36618432 36528540 36558669
            36808762 37218790 37428644 37818618





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252207
SCZ000-GAZ000-252300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0459
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND SERN GA...SRN HALF OF SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 252207Z - 252300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL GA WILL SPREAD TOWARDS
E-CNTRL GA AND SRN SC AFTER 00Z. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...AND A WW WILL BE CONSIDERED SOON.

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS RECOVERY IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION ACROSS ERN GA AND SRN SC...WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S F. MODEST DESTABILIZATION HAS
OCCURRED /MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG/ TO SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF
UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO E-CNTRL GA...WITH CURRENT MOTION SUGGESTING
THIS WILL OCCUR BY 00Z. ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
WITHIN A W-E BAND ACROSS SERN GA.

VEERING/WEAK SFC WINDS ACROSS THE REGION IS YIELDING LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING
50 KT...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH OCCASIONAL CELL
SPLITS LIKELY. GIVEN THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE...PRIMARY THREATS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON   31358146 31948219 32888212 33278210 33548143 33578080
            33468014 33297957 33057935 32178062 31358146





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252207
SCZ000-GAZ000-252300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0459
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND SERN GA...SRN HALF OF SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 252207Z - 252300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL GA WILL SPREAD TOWARDS
E-CNTRL GA AND SRN SC AFTER 00Z. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...AND A WW WILL BE CONSIDERED SOON.

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS RECOVERY IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION ACROSS ERN GA AND SRN SC...WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S F. MODEST DESTABILIZATION HAS
OCCURRED /MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG/ TO SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF
UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO E-CNTRL GA...WITH CURRENT MOTION SUGGESTING
THIS WILL OCCUR BY 00Z. ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
WITHIN A W-E BAND ACROSS SERN GA.

VEERING/WEAK SFC WINDS ACROSS THE REGION IS YIELDING LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING
50 KT...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH OCCASIONAL CELL
SPLITS LIKELY. GIVEN THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE...PRIMARY THREATS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON   31358146 31948219 32888212 33278210 33548143 33578080
            33468014 33297957 33057935 32178062 31358146





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252207
SCZ000-GAZ000-252300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0459
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND SERN GA...SRN HALF OF SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 252207Z - 252300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL GA WILL SPREAD TOWARDS
E-CNTRL GA AND SRN SC AFTER 00Z. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...AND A WW WILL BE CONSIDERED SOON.

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS RECOVERY IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION ACROSS ERN GA AND SRN SC...WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S F. MODEST DESTABILIZATION HAS
OCCURRED /MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG/ TO SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF
UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO E-CNTRL GA...WITH CURRENT MOTION SUGGESTING
THIS WILL OCCUR BY 00Z. ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
WITHIN A W-E BAND ACROSS SERN GA.

VEERING/WEAK SFC WINDS ACROSS THE REGION IS YIELDING LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING
50 KT...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH OCCASIONAL CELL
SPLITS LIKELY. GIVEN THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE...PRIMARY THREATS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON   31358146 31948219 32888212 33278210 33548143 33578080
            33468014 33297957 33057935 32178062 31358146





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252207
SCZ000-GAZ000-252300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0459
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND SERN GA...SRN HALF OF SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 252207Z - 252300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL GA WILL SPREAD TOWARDS
E-CNTRL GA AND SRN SC AFTER 00Z. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...AND A WW WILL BE CONSIDERED SOON.

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS RECOVERY IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION ACROSS ERN GA AND SRN SC...WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S F. MODEST DESTABILIZATION HAS
OCCURRED /MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG/ TO SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF
UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO E-CNTRL GA...WITH CURRENT MOTION SUGGESTING
THIS WILL OCCUR BY 00Z. ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
WITHIN A W-E BAND ACROSS SERN GA.

VEERING/WEAK SFC WINDS ACROSS THE REGION IS YIELDING LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING
50 KT...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH OCCASIONAL CELL
SPLITS LIKELY. GIVEN THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE...PRIMARY THREATS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON   31358146 31948219 32888212 33278210 33548143 33578080
            33468014 33297957 33057935 32178062 31358146





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252207
SCZ000-GAZ000-252300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0459
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND SERN GA...SRN HALF OF SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 252207Z - 252300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL GA WILL SPREAD TOWARDS
E-CNTRL GA AND SRN SC AFTER 00Z. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...AND A WW WILL BE CONSIDERED SOON.

DISCUSSION...AIR MASS RECOVERY IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION ACROSS ERN GA AND SRN SC...WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S F. MODEST DESTABILIZATION HAS
OCCURRED /MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG/ TO SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF
UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO E-CNTRL GA...WITH CURRENT MOTION SUGGESTING
THIS WILL OCCUR BY 00Z. ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
WITHIN A W-E BAND ACROSS SERN GA.

VEERING/WEAK SFC WINDS ACROSS THE REGION IS YIELDING LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING
50 KT...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH OCCASIONAL CELL
SPLITS LIKELY. GIVEN THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE...PRIMARY THREATS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON   31358146 31948219 32888212 33278210 33548143 33578080
            33468014 33297957 33057935 32178062 31358146






000
ACUS11 KWNS 252026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252025
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-252230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0458
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...SRN IL AND INDIANA...WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 112...

VALID 252025Z - 252230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 112 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TORNADO WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST S
OF THE MAIN FRONT FROM SRN IN INTO IND AND NEAR THE OH RIVER.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL LINE OF STORMS HAS GRADUALLY FORMED OVER SRN
IL...WITH NRN EXTENT RIDING ALONG THE MAIN FRONT. IT APPEARS TO BE A
SUPERCELL WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE SWRN FLANK AS RADAR
DOES SHOW A BROAD STORM-SCALE ROTATION RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THIS STORM TO BECOME MORE SEVERE WITH TIME.

TO THE S...THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F. WITH
TIME...OTHER CELLS MAY DEVELOP TO THE SW OF THE NRN CLUSTER.
OR...PERHAPS THE NRN CLUSTER WILL GROW-UPSCALE A BIT WITH ENHANCED
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. A BRIEF TORNADO MAY STILL OCCUR WITH ANY
CELLS...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36418706 37369129 38849131 39028892 38598707 36418706





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252025
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-252230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0458
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...SRN IL AND INDIANA...WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 112...

VALID 252025Z - 252230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 112 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TORNADO WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST S
OF THE MAIN FRONT FROM SRN IN INTO IND AND NEAR THE OH RIVER.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL LINE OF STORMS HAS GRADUALLY FORMED OVER SRN
IL...WITH NRN EXTENT RIDING ALONG THE MAIN FRONT. IT APPEARS TO BE A
SUPERCELL WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE SWRN FLANK AS RADAR
DOES SHOW A BROAD STORM-SCALE ROTATION RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THIS STORM TO BECOME MORE SEVERE WITH TIME.

TO THE S...THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F. WITH
TIME...OTHER CELLS MAY DEVELOP TO THE SW OF THE NRN CLUSTER.
OR...PERHAPS THE NRN CLUSTER WILL GROW-UPSCALE A BIT WITH ENHANCED
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. A BRIEF TORNADO MAY STILL OCCUR WITH ANY
CELLS...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36418706 37369129 38849131 39028892 38598707 36418706





000
ACUS11 KWNS 252026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252025
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-252230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0458
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...SRN IL AND INDIANA...WRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 112...

VALID 252025Z - 252230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 112 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TORNADO WATCH AREA...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST S
OF THE MAIN FRONT FROM SRN IN INTO IND AND NEAR THE OH RIVER.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL LINE OF STORMS HAS GRADUALLY FORMED OVER SRN
IL...WITH NRN EXTENT RIDING ALONG THE MAIN FRONT. IT APPEARS TO BE A
SUPERCELL WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE SWRN FLANK AS RADAR
DOES SHOW A BROAD STORM-SCALE ROTATION RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THIS STORM TO BECOME MORE SEVERE WITH TIME.

TO THE S...THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 60F. WITH
TIME...OTHER CELLS MAY DEVELOP TO THE SW OF THE NRN CLUSTER.
OR...PERHAPS THE NRN CLUSTER WILL GROW-UPSCALE A BIT WITH ENHANCED
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. A BRIEF TORNADO MAY STILL OCCUR WITH ANY
CELLS...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   36418706 37369129 38849131 39028892 38598707 36418706






000
ACUS01 KWNS 252003
SWODY1
SPC AC 252002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S....

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE CAROLINAS. OTHER SEVERE STORMS
ARE PROBABLE FROM EASTERN MISSOURI EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THESE STORMS COULD INCLUDE A FEW TORNADOES
IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.

ONLY CHANGES BEHIND THE EXISTING CONVECTION HAVE BEEN REMOVED AND
ADJUSTED PROBABILITY-WISE.  DUE TO FEWER STORMS...HAVE ADJUSTED
PROBABILITIES DOWNWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY.

..SMITH.. 04/25/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...

THE SRN-STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY WILL
UNDERGO DE-AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRANSLATES EWD ALONG THE OH RIVER
INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME PRESENT OVER
THE ERN U.S.  MEANWHILE...THE EQUATORWARD DEVELOPMENT OF MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING/AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MO WILL FILL
SLIGHTLY AS IT DEVELOPS ESEWD ALONG A WARM FRONT INTO CNTRL KY BY
26/00Z BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT.
FARTHER E...MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE WARM FRONT OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS LATER TODAY WITH THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE NC COAST BY TONIGHT.

...MID MS/OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...

THE 12Z SGF SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE PROXY FOR THE WARM
SECTOR ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED TODAY WITH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM OVERLYING A RELATIVELY MOIST
BOUNDARY-LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY LOWEST-100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF
9-10 G/KG.  WIDESPREAD EARLY-DAY CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A FAIRLY NARROW
CORRIDOR OF STORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW
OVER E-CNTRL MO WITH ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO KY.  GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND AROUND 50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE SETUP SHOULD
FAVOR SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL STORM MODE WITH THE PRIMARY RISK
BEING LARGE HAIL.  A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE INVOF THE SURFACE
LOW AND WARM FRONT WHERE BACKED NEAR-SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY AUGMENT
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.  WITH TIME...STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO
FORWARD-PROPAGATING BOWING SEGMENTS WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING SEWD INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY
EVENING.

...GULF COAST INTO SERN U.S. TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AS OF
MID MORNING...ONE OVER NRN FL AND SRN GA INTO SRN SC...AND THE OTHER
FROM THE SERN TX COAST INTO SOUTH-CNTRL LA.  THE LATTER COMPLEX
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY
MAXIMUM WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BACKGROUND FORCING FOR
ASCENT ON THE MESOSCALE AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL GULF COAST TODAY.  THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT LCH AND LIX SAMPLED
7-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES ATOP LOWEST-100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF 13-16
G/KG...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER DIABATIC
SURFACE HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG.

WITH THE ONSET OF DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING...EXPECT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TO BECOME INCREASINGLY VEERED...RESULTING IN A UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  GIVEN THE
PRESENT EVOLUTION OF STORMS OVER LA...EXPECT THE CONTINUED UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
YIELDING CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL
GULF COAST.

MEANWHILE...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS
OVER NRN FL WHICH WILL POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...SEE
MCD 453.  AIR MASS RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST MCS INTO NRN
FL/SRN GA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

...NRN/CNTRL PARTS OF AL/GA INTO THE CAROLINAS...

12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND RATHER STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
EVOLVE TODAY BETWEEN THE TWO SEVERE STORM REGIMES HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT STRONGER FORCING MECHANISMS FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WILL REMAIN RELEGATED TO THOSE AREAS...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM IN BETWEEN.  SHOULD ISOLATED
STORM FORMATION OCCUR...THE SHEAR-INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE WILL
BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.  DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN
THIS SCENARIO...A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AND ITS ASSOCIATED
PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THIS FORECAST.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 252003
SWODY1
SPC AC 252002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S....

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE CAROLINAS. OTHER SEVERE STORMS
ARE PROBABLE FROM EASTERN MISSOURI EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THESE STORMS COULD INCLUDE A FEW TORNADOES
IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.

ONLY CHANGES BEHIND THE EXISTING CONVECTION HAVE BEEN REMOVED AND
ADJUSTED PROBABILITY-WISE.  DUE TO FEWER STORMS...HAVE ADJUSTED
PROBABILITIES DOWNWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY.

..SMITH.. 04/25/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...

THE SRN-STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY WILL
UNDERGO DE-AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRANSLATES EWD ALONG THE OH RIVER
INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME PRESENT OVER
THE ERN U.S.  MEANWHILE...THE EQUATORWARD DEVELOPMENT OF MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING/AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MO WILL FILL
SLIGHTLY AS IT DEVELOPS ESEWD ALONG A WARM FRONT INTO CNTRL KY BY
26/00Z BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT.
FARTHER E...MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE WARM FRONT OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS LATER TODAY WITH THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE NC COAST BY TONIGHT.

...MID MS/OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...

THE 12Z SGF SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE PROXY FOR THE WARM
SECTOR ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED TODAY WITH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM OVERLYING A RELATIVELY MOIST
BOUNDARY-LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY LOWEST-100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF
9-10 G/KG.  WIDESPREAD EARLY-DAY CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A FAIRLY NARROW
CORRIDOR OF STORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW
OVER E-CNTRL MO WITH ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO KY.  GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND AROUND 50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE SETUP SHOULD
FAVOR SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL STORM MODE WITH THE PRIMARY RISK
BEING LARGE HAIL.  A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE INVOF THE SURFACE
LOW AND WARM FRONT WHERE BACKED NEAR-SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY AUGMENT
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.  WITH TIME...STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO
FORWARD-PROPAGATING BOWING SEGMENTS WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING SEWD INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY
EVENING.

...GULF COAST INTO SERN U.S. TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AS OF
MID MORNING...ONE OVER NRN FL AND SRN GA INTO SRN SC...AND THE OTHER
FROM THE SERN TX COAST INTO SOUTH-CNTRL LA.  THE LATTER COMPLEX
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY
MAXIMUM WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BACKGROUND FORCING FOR
ASCENT ON THE MESOSCALE AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL GULF COAST TODAY.  THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT LCH AND LIX SAMPLED
7-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES ATOP LOWEST-100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF 13-16
G/KG...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER DIABATIC
SURFACE HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG.

WITH THE ONSET OF DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING...EXPECT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TO BECOME INCREASINGLY VEERED...RESULTING IN A UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  GIVEN THE
PRESENT EVOLUTION OF STORMS OVER LA...EXPECT THE CONTINUED UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
YIELDING CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL
GULF COAST.

MEANWHILE...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS
OVER NRN FL WHICH WILL POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...SEE
MCD 453.  AIR MASS RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST MCS INTO NRN
FL/SRN GA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

...NRN/CNTRL PARTS OF AL/GA INTO THE CAROLINAS...

12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND RATHER STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
EVOLVE TODAY BETWEEN THE TWO SEVERE STORM REGIMES HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT STRONGER FORCING MECHANISMS FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WILL REMAIN RELEGATED TO THOSE AREAS...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM IN BETWEEN.  SHOULD ISOLATED
STORM FORMATION OCCUR...THE SHEAR-INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE WILL
BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.  DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN
THIS SCENARIO...A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AND ITS ASSOCIATED
PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THIS FORECAST.





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251930
FLZ000-GAZ000-252030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 110...

VALID 251930Z - 252030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 110 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ACROSS SRN
GA AND NRN FL...GENERALLY FROM TALLAHASSEE FL NEWD TO VALDOSTA GA.
THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE
HAIL...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED TO
REPLACE TORNADO WATCH 110...WHICH EXPIRES AT 20Z.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL INDICATE
THAT NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
EARLIER STORMS THAT HAVE MOSTLY MOVED EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THESE STORMS ARE FORMING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE
OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-60 KT. EVEN
THROUGH PRIOR CONVECTION HAS PROBABLY REDUCED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
SOMEWHAT...CURRENT PARAMETERS SUGGEST LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS NOW VEERED TO THE WSW AND
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE
TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE LESSENING. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH 20Z...THEN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL.
THIS NEW WATCH WOULD REPLACE TORNADO WATCH 110...WHICH EXPIRES AT
20Z.

..GLEASON.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30198129 30168336 30148490 31208477 31168119 30198129






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251930
FLZ000-GAZ000-252030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 110...

VALID 251930Z - 252030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 110 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ACROSS SRN
GA AND NRN FL...GENERALLY FROM TALLAHASSEE FL NEWD TO VALDOSTA GA.
THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE
HAIL...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED TO
REPLACE TORNADO WATCH 110...WHICH EXPIRES AT 20Z.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL INDICATE
THAT NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
EARLIER STORMS THAT HAVE MOSTLY MOVED EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THESE STORMS ARE FORMING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE
OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-60 KT. EVEN
THROUGH PRIOR CONVECTION HAS PROBABLY REDUCED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
SOMEWHAT...CURRENT PARAMETERS SUGGEST LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS NOW VEERED TO THE WSW AND
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE
TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE LESSENING. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH 20Z...THEN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL.
THIS NEW WATCH WOULD REPLACE TORNADO WATCH 110...WHICH EXPIRES AT
20Z.

..GLEASON.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30198129 30168336 30148490 31208477 31168119 30198129





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251930
FLZ000-GAZ000-252030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0457
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 110...

VALID 251930Z - 252030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 110 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ACROSS SRN
GA AND NRN FL...GENERALLY FROM TALLAHASSEE FL NEWD TO VALDOSTA GA.
THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE
HAIL...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED TO
REPLACE TORNADO WATCH 110...WHICH EXPIRES AT 20Z.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL INDICATE
THAT NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
EARLIER STORMS THAT HAVE MOSTLY MOVED EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THESE STORMS ARE FORMING IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE
OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-60 KT. EVEN
THROUGH PRIOR CONVECTION HAS PROBABLY REDUCED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
SOMEWHAT...CURRENT PARAMETERS SUGGEST LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS NOW VEERED TO THE WSW AND
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW...THE
TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE LESSENING. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH 20Z...THEN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL.
THIS NEW WATCH WOULD REPLACE TORNADO WATCH 110...WHICH EXPIRES AT
20Z.

..GLEASON.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30198129 30168336 30148490 31208477 31168119 30198129





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251910
GAZ000-ALZ000-252045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AL AND WRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251910Z - 252045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL AL/WRN GA THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT INITIALLY FORMED OVER E-CNTRL
MS HAS RECENTLY MOVED INTO W-CNTRL AL WHILE WEAKENING...MOST LIKELY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT ATTENDANT TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING. A
BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD DOWNSTREAM FROM THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF
COAST IS TEMPERING MORE ROBUST HEATING ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CONVECTION
FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS OVERTURNED THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
AIRMASS AND LESSENED LAPSE RATES SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...18Z SOUNDINGS
FROM BMX AND FFC SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD SUFFICIENT TIME
TO RECOVER...AS MLCAPE RANGES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL
AL...TO ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OVER WRN GA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-70 KT
WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW NOW MAINLY VEERED
TO THE SW PER 18Z AREA SOUNDINGS AND RADAR VWPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. RECENT HRRR TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY FORM ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF CNTRL AL
THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN A WW MAY BE ISSUED.

..GLEASON/MEAD.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

LAT...LON   32318780 32518831 32858829 33518704 33998542 33438474
            32428466 32088503 32118679 32288737 32318780





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251910
GAZ000-ALZ000-252045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AL AND WRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251910Z - 252045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL AL/WRN GA THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT INITIALLY FORMED OVER E-CNTRL
MS HAS RECENTLY MOVED INTO W-CNTRL AL WHILE WEAKENING...MOST LIKELY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT ATTENDANT TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING. A
BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD DOWNSTREAM FROM THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF
COAST IS TEMPERING MORE ROBUST HEATING ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CONVECTION
FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS OVERTURNED THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
AIRMASS AND LESSENED LAPSE RATES SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...18Z SOUNDINGS
FROM BMX AND FFC SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD SUFFICIENT TIME
TO RECOVER...AS MLCAPE RANGES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL
AL...TO ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OVER WRN GA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-70 KT
WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW NOW MAINLY VEERED
TO THE SW PER 18Z AREA SOUNDINGS AND RADAR VWPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. RECENT HRRR TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY FORM ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF CNTRL AL
THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN A WW MAY BE ISSUED.

..GLEASON/MEAD.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

LAT...LON   32318780 32518831 32858829 33518704 33998542 33438474
            32428466 32088503 32118679 32288737 32318780






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251910
GAZ000-ALZ000-252045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AL AND WRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251910Z - 252045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL AL/WRN GA THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT INITIALLY FORMED OVER E-CNTRL
MS HAS RECENTLY MOVED INTO W-CNTRL AL WHILE WEAKENING...MOST LIKELY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH LIFT ATTENDANT TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING. A
BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD DOWNSTREAM FROM THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF
COAST IS TEMPERING MORE ROBUST HEATING ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CONVECTION
FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS OVERTURNED THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
AIRMASS AND LESSENED LAPSE RATES SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...18Z SOUNDINGS
FROM BMX AND FFC SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD SUFFICIENT TIME
TO RECOVER...AS MLCAPE RANGES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL
AL...TO ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OVER WRN GA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50-70 KT
WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW NOW MAINLY VEERED
TO THE SW PER 18Z AREA SOUNDINGS AND RADAR VWPS...THE TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME. RECENT HRRR TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY FORM ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF CNTRL AL
THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN A WW MAY BE ISSUED.

..GLEASON/MEAD.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

LAT...LON   32318780 32518831 32858829 33518704 33998542 33438474
            32428466 32088503 32118679 32288737 32318780





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251850
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-252015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0455
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111...

VALID 251850Z - 252015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST/NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHILE POSING A
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN AL/NRN FL.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS CONCERNING CONVECTION ACROSS SERN
LA SUGGEST STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE WINDS WILL CONTINUE EWD
ACROSS SRN MS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ISOLATED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW OVER/JUST N OF
NEW ORLEANS WILL ALSO POSE A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK. AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SRN
MS/AL...MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. SWLY WINDS
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK ARE CONTRIBUTING TO GENERALLY 50-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
GIVEN THAT THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING...A NEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN AL AND
NRN FL. THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS LOW GIVEN
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT ON AREA VWPS.

..GLEASON.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29418977 29679049 30309062 31198973 31688836 31948703
            31918627 30108658 29888847 29418977





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251850
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-252015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0455
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111...

VALID 251850Z - 252015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST/NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHILE POSING A
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN AL/NRN FL.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS CONCERNING CONVECTION ACROSS SERN
LA SUGGEST STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE WINDS WILL CONTINUE EWD
ACROSS SRN MS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ISOLATED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW OVER/JUST N OF
NEW ORLEANS WILL ALSO POSE A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK. AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SRN
MS/AL...MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. SWLY WINDS
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK ARE CONTRIBUTING TO GENERALLY 50-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
GIVEN THAT THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING...A NEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN AL AND
NRN FL. THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS LOW GIVEN
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT ON AREA VWPS.

..GLEASON.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29418977 29679049 30309062 31198973 31688836 31948703
            31918627 30108658 29888847 29418977






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251850
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-252015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0455
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111...

VALID 251850Z - 252015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST/NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHILE POSING A
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN AL/NRN FL.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS CONCERNING CONVECTION ACROSS SERN
LA SUGGEST STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE WINDS WILL CONTINUE EWD
ACROSS SRN MS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ISOLATED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW OVER/JUST N OF
NEW ORLEANS WILL ALSO POSE A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK. AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SRN
MS/AL...MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. SWLY WINDS
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK ARE CONTRIBUTING TO GENERALLY 50-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
GIVEN THAT THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING...A NEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN AL AND
NRN FL. THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS LOW GIVEN
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT ON AREA VWPS.

..GLEASON.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29418977 29679049 30309062 31198973 31688836 31948703
            31918627 30108658 29888847 29418977





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251850
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-252015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0455
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111...

VALID 251850Z - 252015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST/NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHILE POSING A
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN AL/NRN FL.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS CONCERNING CONVECTION ACROSS SERN
LA SUGGEST STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE WINDS WILL CONTINUE EWD
ACROSS SRN MS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ISOLATED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW OVER/JUST N OF
NEW ORLEANS WILL ALSO POSE A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK. AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SRN
MS/AL...MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. SWLY WINDS
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK ARE CONTRIBUTING TO GENERALLY 50-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
GIVEN THAT THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING...A NEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN AL AND
NRN FL. THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS LOW GIVEN
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT ON AREA VWPS.

..GLEASON.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29418977 29679049 30309062 31198973 31688836 31948703
            31918627 30108658 29888847 29418977





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251850
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-252015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0455
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111...

VALID 251850Z - 252015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST/NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHILE POSING A
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN AL/NRN FL.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS CONCERNING CONVECTION ACROSS SERN
LA SUGGEST STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE WINDS WILL CONTINUE EWD
ACROSS SRN MS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ISOLATED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW OVER/JUST N OF
NEW ORLEANS WILL ALSO POSE A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK. AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SRN
MS/AL...MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. SWLY WINDS
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK ARE CONTRIBUTING TO GENERALLY 50-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
GIVEN THAT THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING...A NEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN AL AND
NRN FL. THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS LOW GIVEN
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT ON AREA VWPS.

..GLEASON.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29418977 29679049 30309062 31198973 31688836 31948703
            31918627 30108658 29888847 29418977






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251850
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-252015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0455
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111...

VALID 251850Z - 252015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 111
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST/NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHILE POSING A
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A DOWNSTREAM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN AL/NRN FL.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS CONCERNING CONVECTION ACROSS SERN
LA SUGGEST STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE WINDS WILL CONTINUE EWD
ACROSS SRN MS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ISOLATED SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW OVER/JUST N OF
NEW ORLEANS WILL ALSO POSE A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND RISK. AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SRN
MS/AL...MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. SWLY WINDS
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK ARE CONTRIBUTING TO GENERALLY 50-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
GIVEN THAT THIS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING...A NEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN AL AND
NRN FL. THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS LOW GIVEN
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT ON AREA VWPS.

..GLEASON.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29418977 29679049 30309062 31198973 31688836 31948703
            31918627 30108658 29888847 29418977





000
ACUS02 KWNS 251726
SWODY2
SPC AC 251725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES
REGION...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF COAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MIGRATE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE FARTHER
E...A STATIC PATTERN FEATURING A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID
MO VALLEY WILL BE LOCATED TO THE W OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MAINTAINING A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD.  A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL STATES INTO THE SRN
PLAINS AND THE DEEP SOUTH WITH THE WWD EXTENSION OF THE FRONT
INTERSECTING A DEVELOPING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS.  A NORTH-SOUTH DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SHARPEN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL AND NW TX DURING THE DAY AND SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON.

...SRN PLAINS...
A RESERVOIR OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHUNTED TO THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL ADVANCE NWWD INTO CNTRL TX DURING THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  STRONG
HEATING IS FORECAST OVER SWRN TX AND A REINVIGORATED EML WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE W EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS CNTRL TX DURING THE
DAY LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER /1500-3000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ ACROSS CNTRL TX.  AS THE
CAP WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD W-CNTRL TX AS THE NOSE OF A 80-KT H5 SPEED MAX OVER NRN
CHIHUAHUA MOVES INTO SW TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.  ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD
STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE AND THE VEERING AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
PRIMARILY OF ISOLD LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO RISK AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO RICHER
MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE DRYLINE.

FARTHER N...MODELS SHOW AN ELY-COMPONENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW INVOF THE
SWD SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE OVER OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.  INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ARCING DRYLINE INTO FAR SWRN OK INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE WILL PROBABLY ERODE THE CAP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE BUOYANCY DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AXIS
OF 50S DEWPOINTS.  STRONG VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.  COOL
MID-LEVEL TEMPS /-16 TO -18 DEG C AT H5/ WOULD SUPPORT LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL GROWTH DURING THE MATURE PHASE OF THE STORM LIFECYCLE.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
W DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT /PRIMARILY HAIL/ IS POSSIBLE OWING TO THE
STRENGTHENING OF WAA ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

...GULF COAST AND S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF STATES SUNDAY.  STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLD GIVEN
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST.  THE COMBINATION OF
POSSIBLE FOCUSING FEATURES SUCH AS SEA BREEZE AND THE SWD-ADVANCING
FRONTAL ZONE MAY AID IN INITIATING STORM DEVELOPMENT.  STRONG
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW AND ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY YIELD AN ISOLD
HAIL/WIND RISK WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..SMITH.. 04/25/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 251726
SWODY2
SPC AC 251725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES
REGION...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF COAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MIGRATE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE FARTHER
E...A STATIC PATTERN FEATURING A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID
MO VALLEY WILL BE LOCATED TO THE W OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MAINTAINING A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD.  A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL STATES INTO THE SRN
PLAINS AND THE DEEP SOUTH WITH THE WWD EXTENSION OF THE FRONT
INTERSECTING A DEVELOPING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS.  A NORTH-SOUTH DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SHARPEN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL AND NW TX DURING THE DAY AND SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON.

...SRN PLAINS...
A RESERVOIR OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHUNTED TO THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL ADVANCE NWWD INTO CNTRL TX DURING THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  STRONG
HEATING IS FORECAST OVER SWRN TX AND A REINVIGORATED EML WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE W EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS CNTRL TX DURING THE
DAY LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER /1500-3000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ ACROSS CNTRL TX.  AS THE
CAP WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD W-CNTRL TX AS THE NOSE OF A 80-KT H5 SPEED MAX OVER NRN
CHIHUAHUA MOVES INTO SW TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.  ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD
STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE AND THE VEERING AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
PRIMARILY OF ISOLD LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO RISK AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO RICHER
MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE DRYLINE.

FARTHER N...MODELS SHOW AN ELY-COMPONENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW INVOF THE
SWD SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE OVER OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.  INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ARCING DRYLINE INTO FAR SWRN OK INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE WILL PROBABLY ERODE THE CAP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE BUOYANCY DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AXIS
OF 50S DEWPOINTS.  STRONG VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.  COOL
MID-LEVEL TEMPS /-16 TO -18 DEG C AT H5/ WOULD SUPPORT LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL GROWTH DURING THE MATURE PHASE OF THE STORM LIFECYCLE.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
W DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT /PRIMARILY HAIL/ IS POSSIBLE OWING TO THE
STRENGTHENING OF WAA ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

...GULF COAST AND S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF STATES SUNDAY.  STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLD GIVEN
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST.  THE COMBINATION OF
POSSIBLE FOCUSING FEATURES SUCH AS SEA BREEZE AND THE SWD-ADVANCING
FRONTAL ZONE MAY AID IN INITIATING STORM DEVELOPMENT.  STRONG
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW AND ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY YIELD AN ISOLD
HAIL/WIND RISK WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..SMITH.. 04/25/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 251726
SWODY2
SPC AC 251725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES
REGION...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF COAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MIGRATE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE FARTHER
E...A STATIC PATTERN FEATURING A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID
MO VALLEY WILL BE LOCATED TO THE W OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MAINTAINING A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD.  A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL STATES INTO THE SRN
PLAINS AND THE DEEP SOUTH WITH THE WWD EXTENSION OF THE FRONT
INTERSECTING A DEVELOPING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS.  A NORTH-SOUTH DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SHARPEN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL AND NW TX DURING THE DAY AND SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON.

...SRN PLAINS...
A RESERVOIR OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHUNTED TO THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL ADVANCE NWWD INTO CNTRL TX DURING THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  STRONG
HEATING IS FORECAST OVER SWRN TX AND A REINVIGORATED EML WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE W EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS CNTRL TX DURING THE
DAY LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER /1500-3000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ ACROSS CNTRL TX.  AS THE
CAP WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD W-CNTRL TX AS THE NOSE OF A 80-KT H5 SPEED MAX OVER NRN
CHIHUAHUA MOVES INTO SW TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.  ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD
STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE AND THE VEERING AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
PRIMARILY OF ISOLD LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO RISK AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO RICHER
MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE DRYLINE.

FARTHER N...MODELS SHOW AN ELY-COMPONENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW INVOF THE
SWD SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE OVER OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.  INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ARCING DRYLINE INTO FAR SWRN OK INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE WILL PROBABLY ERODE THE CAP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE BUOYANCY DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AXIS
OF 50S DEWPOINTS.  STRONG VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.  COOL
MID-LEVEL TEMPS /-16 TO -18 DEG C AT H5/ WOULD SUPPORT LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL GROWTH DURING THE MATURE PHASE OF THE STORM LIFECYCLE.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
W DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT /PRIMARILY HAIL/ IS POSSIBLE OWING TO THE
STRENGTHENING OF WAA ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

...GULF COAST AND S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF STATES SUNDAY.  STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLD GIVEN
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST.  THE COMBINATION OF
POSSIBLE FOCUSING FEATURES SUCH AS SEA BREEZE AND THE SWD-ADVANCING
FRONTAL ZONE MAY AID IN INITIATING STORM DEVELOPMENT.  STRONG
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW AND ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY YIELD AN ISOLD
HAIL/WIND RISK WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..SMITH.. 04/25/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 251726
SWODY2
SPC AC 251725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES
REGION...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF COAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL MIGRATE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE FARTHER
E...A STATIC PATTERN FEATURING A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MID
MO VALLEY WILL BE LOCATED TO THE W OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MAINTAINING A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD.  A COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL STATES INTO THE SRN
PLAINS AND THE DEEP SOUTH WITH THE WWD EXTENSION OF THE FRONT
INTERSECTING A DEVELOPING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS.  A NORTH-SOUTH DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SHARPEN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL AND NW TX DURING THE DAY AND SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON.

...SRN PLAINS...
A RESERVOIR OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHUNTED TO THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL ADVANCE NWWD INTO CNTRL TX DURING THE
DAY IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  STRONG
HEATING IS FORECAST OVER SWRN TX AND A REINVIGORATED EML WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD THE W EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS CNTRL TX DURING THE
DAY LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER /1500-3000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ ACROSS CNTRL TX.  AS THE
CAP WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL GRADUALLY
OVERSPREAD W-CNTRL TX AS THE NOSE OF A 80-KT H5 SPEED MAX OVER NRN
CHIHUAHUA MOVES INTO SW TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.  ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD
STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE AND THE VEERING AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
PRIMARILY OF ISOLD LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL/STRONG WINDS WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO RISK AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO RICHER
MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE DRYLINE.

FARTHER N...MODELS SHOW AN ELY-COMPONENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW INVOF THE
SWD SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE OVER OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.  INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ARCING DRYLINE INTO FAR SWRN OK INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE WILL PROBABLY ERODE THE CAP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE BUOYANCY DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AXIS
OF 50S DEWPOINTS.  STRONG VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.  COOL
MID-LEVEL TEMPS /-16 TO -18 DEG C AT H5/ WOULD SUPPORT LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL GROWTH DURING THE MATURE PHASE OF THE STORM LIFECYCLE.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
W DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT /PRIMARILY HAIL/ IS POSSIBLE OWING TO THE
STRENGTHENING OF WAA ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

...GULF COAST AND S ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF STATES SUNDAY.  STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLD GIVEN
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST.  THE COMBINATION OF
POSSIBLE FOCUSING FEATURES SUCH AS SEA BREEZE AND THE SWD-ADVANCING
FRONTAL ZONE MAY AID IN INITIATING STORM DEVELOPMENT.  STRONG
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW AND ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY YIELD AN ISOLD
HAIL/WIND RISK WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..SMITH.. 04/25/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251722
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-251945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO...SRN IL...SRN INDIANA...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251722Z - 251945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. TWO WATCHES ARE LIKELY...FIRST ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...THEN DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL KY LATER TODAY WHERE
A WIND THREAT MAY ALSO MATERIALIZE.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NEAR ST.
LOUIS SEWD ACROSS IL AND INTO WRN KY.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL MO WHERE
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL BREAKUP OF
CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

SHALLOW SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS SHOULD ONLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD WITH A COUPLE
TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

..JEWELL/MEAD.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   37659094 38629099 38989039 38678844 37968562 37498526
            36958543 36748588 36528690 36618825 37659094






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251722
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-251945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO...SRN IL...SRN INDIANA...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251722Z - 251945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. TWO WATCHES ARE LIKELY...FIRST ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...THEN DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL KY LATER TODAY WHERE
A WIND THREAT MAY ALSO MATERIALIZE.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NEAR ST.
LOUIS SEWD ACROSS IL AND INTO WRN KY.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL MO WHERE
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL BREAKUP OF
CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

SHALLOW SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS SHOULD ONLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD WITH A COUPLE
TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

..JEWELL/MEAD.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   37659094 38629099 38989039 38678844 37968562 37498526
            36958543 36748588 36528690 36618825 37659094





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251722
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-251945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO...SRN IL...SRN INDIANA...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251722Z - 251945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. TWO WATCHES ARE LIKELY...FIRST ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...THEN DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL KY LATER TODAY WHERE
A WIND THREAT MAY ALSO MATERIALIZE.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NEAR ST.
LOUIS SEWD ACROSS IL AND INTO WRN KY.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL MO WHERE
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL BREAKUP OF
CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

SHALLOW SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS SHOULD ONLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD WITH A COUPLE
TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

..JEWELL/MEAD.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   37659094 38629099 38989039 38678844 37968562 37498526
            36958543 36748588 36528690 36618825 37659094





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251722
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-251945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO...SRN IL...SRN INDIANA...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251722Z - 251945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. TWO WATCHES ARE LIKELY...FIRST ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA...THEN DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL KY LATER TODAY WHERE
A WIND THREAT MAY ALSO MATERIALIZE.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NEAR ST.
LOUIS SEWD ACROSS IL AND INTO WRN KY.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL MO WHERE
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL BREAKUP OF
CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

SHALLOW SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS SHOULD ONLY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD WITH A COUPLE
TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

..JEWELL/MEAD.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   37659094 38629099 38989039 38678844 37968562 37498526
            36958543 36748588 36528690 36618825 37659094





000
ACUS01 KWNS 251631
SWODY1
SPC AC 251629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID MS INTO LOWER OH
AND A PART OF THE TN VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO SRN APPALACHIANS...AND FROM THE CNTRL
GULF COAST INTO SERN STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREAS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL
OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND THE CAROLINAS. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE PROBABLE FROM
EASTERN MISSOURI EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. THESE STORMS COULD INCLUDE A FEW TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.

...SYNOPSIS...

THE SRN-STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY WILL
UNDERGO DE-AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRANSLATES EWD ALONG THE OH RIVER
INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME PRESENT OVER
THE ERN U.S.  MEANWHILE...THE EQUATORWARD DEVELOPMENT OF MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING/AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MO WILL FILL
SLIGHTLY AS IT DEVELOPS ESEWD ALONG A WARM FRONT INTO CNTRL KY BY
26/00Z BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT.
FARTHER E...MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE WARM FRONT OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS LATER TODAY WITH THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE NC COAST BY TONIGHT.

...MID MS/OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...

THE 12Z SGF SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE PROXY FOR THE WARM
SECTOR ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED TODAY WITH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM OVERLYING A RELATIVELY MOIST
BOUNDARY-LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY LOWEST-100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF
9-10 G/KG.  WIDESPREAD EARLY-DAY CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A FAIRLY NARROW
CORRIDOR OF STORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW
OVER E-CNTRL MO WITH ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO KY.  GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND AROUND 50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE SETUP SHOULD
FAVOR SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL STORM MODE WITH THE PRIMARY RISK
BEING LARGE HAIL.  A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE INVOF THE SURFACE
LOW AND WARM FRONT WHERE BACKED NEAR-SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY AUGMENT
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.  WITH TIME...STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO
FORWARD-PROPAGATING BOWING SEGMENTS WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING SEWD INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY
EVENING.

...GULF COAST INTO SERN U.S. TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AS OF
MID MORNING...ONE OVER NRN FL AND SRN GA INTO SRN SC...AND THE OTHER
FROM THE SERN TX COAST INTO SOUTH-CNTRL LA.  THE LATTER COMPLEX
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY
MAXIMUM WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BACKGROUND FORCING FOR
ASCENT ON THE MESOSCALE AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL GULF COAST TODAY.  THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT LCH AND LIX SAMPLED
7-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES ATOP LOWEST-100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF 13-16
G/KG...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER DIABATIC
SURFACE HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG.

WITH THE ONSET OF DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING...EXPECT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TO BECOME INCREASINGLY VEERED...RESULTING IN A UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  GIVEN THE
PRESENT EVOLUTION OF STORMS OVER LA...EXPECT THE CONTINUED UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
YIELDING CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL
GULF COAST.

MEANWHILE...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS
OVER NRN FL WHICH WILL POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...SEE
MCD 453.  AIR MASS RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST MCS INTO NRN
FL/SRN GA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

...NRN/CNTRL PARTS OF AL/GA INTO THE CAROLINAS...

12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND RATHER STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
EVOLVE TODAY BETWEEN THE TWO SEVERE STORM REGIMES HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT STRONGER FORCING MECHANISMS FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WILL REMAIN RELEGATED TO THOSE AREAS...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM IN BETWEEN.  SHOULD ISOLATED
STORM FORMATION OCCUR...THE SHEAR-INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE WILL
BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.  DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN
THIS SCENARIO...A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AND ITS ASSOCIATED
PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THIS FORECAST.

..MEAD/GLEASON.. 04/25/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 251631
SWODY1
SPC AC 251629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID MS INTO LOWER OH
AND A PART OF THE TN VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED RISK
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO SRN APPALACHIANS...AND FROM THE CNTRL
GULF COAST INTO SERN STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREAS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MAINLY HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL
OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA AND THE CAROLINAS. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE PROBABLE FROM
EASTERN MISSOURI EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND
TENNESSEE. THESE STORMS COULD INCLUDE A FEW TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.

...SYNOPSIS...

THE SRN-STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY WILL
UNDERGO DE-AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRANSLATES EWD ALONG THE OH RIVER
INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME PRESENT OVER
THE ERN U.S.  MEANWHILE...THE EQUATORWARD DEVELOPMENT OF MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING/AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MO WILL FILL
SLIGHTLY AS IT DEVELOPS ESEWD ALONG A WARM FRONT INTO CNTRL KY BY
26/00Z BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT.
FARTHER E...MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT WEAK CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE WARM FRONT OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS LATER TODAY WITH THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE NC COAST BY TONIGHT.

...MID MS/OH/TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING...

THE 12Z SGF SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE PROXY FOR THE WARM
SECTOR ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED TODAY WITH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM OVERLYING A RELATIVELY MOIST
BOUNDARY-LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY LOWEST-100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF
9-10 G/KG.  WIDESPREAD EARLY-DAY CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A FAIRLY NARROW
CORRIDOR OF STORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW
OVER E-CNTRL MO WITH ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO KY.  GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND AROUND 50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE SETUP SHOULD
FAVOR SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL STORM MODE WITH THE PRIMARY RISK
BEING LARGE HAIL.  A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE INVOF THE SURFACE
LOW AND WARM FRONT WHERE BACKED NEAR-SURFACE WINDS LOCALLY AUGMENT
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.  WITH TIME...STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO
FORWARD-PROPAGATING BOWING SEGMENTS WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING SEWD INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY
EVENING.

...GULF COAST INTO SERN U.S. TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AS OF
MID MORNING...ONE OVER NRN FL AND SRN GA INTO SRN SC...AND THE OTHER
FROM THE SERN TX COAST INTO SOUTH-CNTRL LA.  THE LATTER COMPLEX
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY
MAXIMUM WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BACKGROUND FORCING FOR
ASCENT ON THE MESOSCALE AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE
CNTRL GULF COAST TODAY.  THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT LCH AND LIX SAMPLED
7-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES ATOP LOWEST-100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF 13-16
G/KG...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER DIABATIC
SURFACE HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG.

WITH THE ONSET OF DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING...EXPECT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TO BECOME INCREASINGLY VEERED...RESULTING IN A UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILE WITH RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  GIVEN THE
PRESENT EVOLUTION OF STORMS OVER LA...EXPECT THE CONTINUED UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
YIELDING CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL
GULF COAST.

MEANWHILE...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS
OVER NRN FL WHICH WILL POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.  FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS...SEE
MCD 453.  AIR MASS RECOVERY IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST MCS INTO NRN
FL/SRN GA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

...NRN/CNTRL PARTS OF AL/GA INTO THE CAROLINAS...

12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND RATHER STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
EVOLVE TODAY BETWEEN THE TWO SEVERE STORM REGIMES HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT STRONGER FORCING MECHANISMS FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WILL REMAIN RELEGATED TO THOSE AREAS...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM IN BETWEEN.  SHOULD ISOLATED
STORM FORMATION OCCUR...THE SHEAR-INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE WILL
BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.  DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN
THIS SCENARIO...A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AND ITS ASSOCIATED
PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THIS FORECAST.

..MEAD/GLEASON.. 04/25/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251620
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251620
GAZ000-FLZ000-251745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 110...

VALID 251620Z - 251745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 110 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WW 110 MAY
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS STRUGGLED TO
ORGANIZE THIS MORNING ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL...AS IT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM LARGE SCALE FORCING TO THE NW.
HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TALLAHASSEE TO MADISON FL MAY
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN IN THE SHORT TERM. DIURNAL HEATING S
OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS NRN FL. A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA. GPS PW ESTIMATES SUGGEST
ADDITIONAL LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING NWD FROM THE GULF AND
OVER NRN FL...WHICH SHOULD HELP FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
GIVEN VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW...AROUND 60
KT AT 500 MB PER THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM TAE...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SRN PORTIONS OF WW 110 SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

..GLEASON/MEAD.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29888313 30048499 30368505 31058451 31148403 31128267
            31058221 30548234 29888261 29888313





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251620
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251620
GAZ000-FLZ000-251745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 110...

VALID 251620Z - 251745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 110 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WW 110 MAY
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS STRUGGLED TO
ORGANIZE THIS MORNING ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL...AS IT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM LARGE SCALE FORCING TO THE NW.
HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TALLAHASSEE TO MADISON FL MAY
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN IN THE SHORT TERM. DIURNAL HEATING S
OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS NRN FL. A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA. GPS PW ESTIMATES SUGGEST
ADDITIONAL LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING NWD FROM THE GULF AND
OVER NRN FL...WHICH SHOULD HELP FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
GIVEN VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW...AROUND 60
KT AT 500 MB PER THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM TAE...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SRN PORTIONS OF WW 110 SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

..GLEASON/MEAD.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29888313 30048499 30368505 31058451 31148403 31128267
            31058221 30548234 29888261 29888313






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251620
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251620
GAZ000-FLZ000-251745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 110...

VALID 251620Z - 251745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 110 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WW 110 MAY
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS STRUGGLED TO
ORGANIZE THIS MORNING ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL...AS IT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM LARGE SCALE FORCING TO THE NW.
HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING
ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TALLAHASSEE TO MADISON FL MAY
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN IN THE SHORT TERM. DIURNAL HEATING S
OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD INCREASE MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS NRN FL. A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS...CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THIS AREA. GPS PW ESTIMATES SUGGEST
ADDITIONAL LOW TO MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING NWD FROM THE GULF AND
OVER NRN FL...WHICH SHOULD HELP FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
GIVEN VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW...AROUND 60
KT AT 500 MB PER THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM TAE...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SRN PORTIONS OF WW 110 SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

..GLEASON/MEAD.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29888313 30048499 30368505 31058451 31148403 31128267
            31058221 30548234 29888261 29888313





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251436
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251435
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-251630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0452
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0935 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX INTO LA AND SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 109...

VALID 251435Z - 251630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 109
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS MOVING MOSTLY OFFSHORE THE UPPER TX
COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A DEVELOPING THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF SRN LA
INTO SRN MS LATER TODAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ARE DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL...AND ANOTHER WATCH IS LIKELY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
LA AND MS.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS SERN TX INTO SWRN LA WITH LEADING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL OVER SERN TX
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT IS DECREASING.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM SRN LA INTO SRN MS/AL WHERE HEATING WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR/FLOW IN PLACE. THE STRONG MEAN-LAYER FLOW AND RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS WILL FAVOR BOTH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE OUT
OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SWRN LA AND JUST OFFSHORE.

..JEWELL.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29679360 31069231 31679046 31848845 31458780 30958764
            30488751 30208761 29718767 29118797 28888915 28989085
            29449246 29419339 29679360





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251436
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251435
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-251630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0452
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0935 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX INTO LA AND SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 109...

VALID 251435Z - 251630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 109
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS MOVING MOSTLY OFFSHORE THE UPPER TX
COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A DEVELOPING THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF SRN LA
INTO SRN MS LATER TODAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ARE DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL...AND ANOTHER WATCH IS LIKELY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
LA AND MS.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS SERN TX INTO SWRN LA WITH LEADING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL OVER SERN TX
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT IS DECREASING.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM SRN LA INTO SRN MS/AL WHERE HEATING WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR/FLOW IN PLACE. THE STRONG MEAN-LAYER FLOW AND RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS WILL FAVOR BOTH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE OUT
OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SWRN LA AND JUST OFFSHORE.

..JEWELL.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29679360 31069231 31679046 31848845 31458780 30958764
            30488751 30208761 29718767 29118797 28888915 28989085
            29449246 29419339 29679360





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251436
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251435
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-251630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0452
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0935 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX INTO LA AND SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 109...

VALID 251435Z - 251630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 109
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS MOVING MOSTLY OFFSHORE THE UPPER TX
COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A DEVELOPING THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF SRN LA
INTO SRN MS LATER TODAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ARE DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL...AND ANOTHER WATCH IS LIKELY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
LA AND MS.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS SERN TX INTO SWRN LA WITH LEADING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL OVER SERN TX
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT IS DECREASING.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM SRN LA INTO SRN MS/AL WHERE HEATING WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR/FLOW IN PLACE. THE STRONG MEAN-LAYER FLOW AND RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS WILL FAVOR BOTH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE OUT
OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SWRN LA AND JUST OFFSHORE.

..JEWELL.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29679360 31069231 31679046 31848845 31458780 30958764
            30488751 30208761 29718767 29118797 28888915 28989085
            29449246 29419339 29679360






000
ACUS01 KWNS 251302
SWODY1
SPC AC 251300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MO ESE INTO ERN KY/FAR
NRN TN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHD RISK AREA
FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS VLY SSE TO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST AND THE
CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
FROM PARTS OF E TX TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND NC...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE CAROLINAS. OTHER SEVERE STORMS
MAY OCCUR FROM EASTERN MISSOURI EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THE STORMS COULD INCLUDE A FEW TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.

...SYNOPSIS...
KS-MO SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHEAR ESE INTO THE LWR OH VLY
THIS EVE...AND ACROSS THE CNTRL-SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY SUN...AS IT
BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE SW SIDE OF QSTNRY
LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER NS. IN THE MEAN TIME...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK
OVER THE RCKYS...DOWNSTREAM FROM SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE...AMPLIFYING
TROUGH ALONG THE W CST.

AT THE SFC...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE KS-MO SYSTEM SHOULD ELONGATE
ESE ACROSS ERN MO...SRN IL...AND WRN/SRN KY LATER TODAY...BEFORE
RE-FORMING EWD OFF THE NC CST EARLY SUN. STRENGTHENING WSWLY LOW-LVL
FLOW S OF THE LOW WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A MODEST ENE ADVANCE OF
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR ACROSS PARTS OF AL...GA...AND SC THROUGH THIS
EVE. WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT TRAILING SW FROM THE LOW SHOULD FURTHER
WEAKEN OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION...WHILE A NEW COOL AIR SURGE
SETTLES S ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS AND OZARKS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

...SE TX/LWR MS VLY/GULF CST TO CAROLINAS TODAY/TNGT...
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SCTD STRONG TO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SFC
HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES CORRIDOR ALONG STALLED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH...ATTM
EXTENDING ENE FROM SE TX INTO SRN MS/AL. WHILE THE STRONGEST DEEP
WSWLY FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF MO UPR TROUGH WILL REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...AMPLE /40-50 KT/ 700-500 MB FLOW WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS. AND...ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...TRAILING UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER E TX WILL
PROVIDE SOME DEGREE OF LIFT AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. OVERALL SETUP WITH RICH MOISTURE/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
/PER 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS/ AND LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
STRUCTURES. THESE MAY YIELD DMGG GUSTS...SVR HAIL...AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE TORNADOES.  IN THE NEAR TERM...A FEW SVR STORMS WILL ALSO
TRACK GENERALLY E OR ENE ALONG RESIDUAL WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT OVER
NRN FL/S GA...POSSIBLY WITH AN INCREASING SVR RISK /REF MCD 451/.
LATER TODAY...MORE ISOLD SVR STORMS MAY FORM ALONG WEAKENING COLD
FRONT/WIND SHIFT CROSSING NRN PARTS OF MS...AL...AND ERN TN.

...MO ESE INTO KY/TN THIS AFTN/EVE...
A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS SHOULD ARISE WITH AFTN
HEATING OF DRY SLOT ATTENDANT TO WEAKENING...ESE-SHEARING UPR LOW.
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED COMPARED TO POINTS
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THIS RISK AREA. BUT COOL
MID-LVL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD
AMPLE CAPE /AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS GIVEN
CYCLONIC/CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW. 50 KT 700-500 MB WLY WINDS SUGGEST
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SCTD SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG
WIND...AND A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ALONG STNRY FRONT EXTENDING
ESE FROM THE MO SFC LOW INTO SRN IL...SW IND...AND WRN/NRN KY. LOSS
OF SFC HEATING...STORM MERGERS...AND CONTINUED WEAKENING OF UPR LOW
SHOULD FOSTER FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING OF STORMS AFTER SUNSET.

..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 04/25/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 251302
SWODY1
SPC AC 251300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MO ESE INTO ERN KY/FAR
NRN TN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHD RISK AREA
FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS VLY SSE TO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST AND THE
CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
FROM PARTS OF E TX TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND NC...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE CAROLINAS. OTHER SEVERE STORMS
MAY OCCUR FROM EASTERN MISSOURI EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THE STORMS COULD INCLUDE A FEW TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.

...SYNOPSIS...
KS-MO SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHEAR ESE INTO THE LWR OH VLY
THIS EVE...AND ACROSS THE CNTRL-SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY SUN...AS IT
BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE SW SIDE OF QSTNRY
LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER NS. IN THE MEAN TIME...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK
OVER THE RCKYS...DOWNSTREAM FROM SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE...AMPLIFYING
TROUGH ALONG THE W CST.

AT THE SFC...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE KS-MO SYSTEM SHOULD ELONGATE
ESE ACROSS ERN MO...SRN IL...AND WRN/SRN KY LATER TODAY...BEFORE
RE-FORMING EWD OFF THE NC CST EARLY SUN. STRENGTHENING WSWLY LOW-LVL
FLOW S OF THE LOW WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A MODEST ENE ADVANCE OF
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR ACROSS PARTS OF AL...GA...AND SC THROUGH THIS
EVE. WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT TRAILING SW FROM THE LOW SHOULD FURTHER
WEAKEN OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION...WHILE A NEW COOL AIR SURGE
SETTLES S ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS AND OZARKS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

...SE TX/LWR MS VLY/GULF CST TO CAROLINAS TODAY/TNGT...
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SCTD STRONG TO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SFC
HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES CORRIDOR ALONG STALLED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH...ATTM
EXTENDING ENE FROM SE TX INTO SRN MS/AL. WHILE THE STRONGEST DEEP
WSWLY FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF MO UPR TROUGH WILL REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...AMPLE /40-50 KT/ 700-500 MB FLOW WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS. AND...ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...TRAILING UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER E TX WILL
PROVIDE SOME DEGREE OF LIFT AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. OVERALL SETUP WITH RICH MOISTURE/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
/PER 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS/ AND LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
STRUCTURES. THESE MAY YIELD DMGG GUSTS...SVR HAIL...AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE TORNADOES.  IN THE NEAR TERM...A FEW SVR STORMS WILL ALSO
TRACK GENERALLY E OR ENE ALONG RESIDUAL WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT OVER
NRN FL/S GA...POSSIBLY WITH AN INCREASING SVR RISK /REF MCD 451/.
LATER TODAY...MORE ISOLD SVR STORMS MAY FORM ALONG WEAKENING COLD
FRONT/WIND SHIFT CROSSING NRN PARTS OF MS...AL...AND ERN TN.

...MO ESE INTO KY/TN THIS AFTN/EVE...
A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS SHOULD ARISE WITH AFTN
HEATING OF DRY SLOT ATTENDANT TO WEAKENING...ESE-SHEARING UPR LOW.
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED COMPARED TO POINTS
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THIS RISK AREA. BUT COOL
MID-LVL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD
AMPLE CAPE /AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS GIVEN
CYCLONIC/CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW. 50 KT 700-500 MB WLY WINDS SUGGEST
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SCTD SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG
WIND...AND A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ALONG STNRY FRONT EXTENDING
ESE FROM THE MO SFC LOW INTO SRN IL...SW IND...AND WRN/NRN KY. LOSS
OF SFC HEATING...STORM MERGERS...AND CONTINUED WEAKENING OF UPR LOW
SHOULD FOSTER FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING OF STORMS AFTER SUNSET.

..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 04/25/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 251302
SWODY1
SPC AC 251300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MO ESE INTO ERN KY/FAR
NRN TN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHD RISK AREA
FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS VLY SSE TO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST AND THE
CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
FROM PARTS OF E TX TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND NC...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE CAROLINAS. OTHER SEVERE STORMS
MAY OCCUR FROM EASTERN MISSOURI EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THE STORMS COULD INCLUDE A FEW TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.

...SYNOPSIS...
KS-MO SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHEAR ESE INTO THE LWR OH VLY
THIS EVE...AND ACROSS THE CNTRL-SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY SUN...AS IT
BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE SW SIDE OF QSTNRY
LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER NS. IN THE MEAN TIME...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK
OVER THE RCKYS...DOWNSTREAM FROM SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE...AMPLIFYING
TROUGH ALONG THE W CST.

AT THE SFC...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE KS-MO SYSTEM SHOULD ELONGATE
ESE ACROSS ERN MO...SRN IL...AND WRN/SRN KY LATER TODAY...BEFORE
RE-FORMING EWD OFF THE NC CST EARLY SUN. STRENGTHENING WSWLY LOW-LVL
FLOW S OF THE LOW WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A MODEST ENE ADVANCE OF
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR ACROSS PARTS OF AL...GA...AND SC THROUGH THIS
EVE. WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT TRAILING SW FROM THE LOW SHOULD FURTHER
WEAKEN OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION...WHILE A NEW COOL AIR SURGE
SETTLES S ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS AND OZARKS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

...SE TX/LWR MS VLY/GULF CST TO CAROLINAS TODAY/TNGT...
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SCTD STRONG TO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SFC
HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES CORRIDOR ALONG STALLED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH...ATTM
EXTENDING ENE FROM SE TX INTO SRN MS/AL. WHILE THE STRONGEST DEEP
WSWLY FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF MO UPR TROUGH WILL REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...AMPLE /40-50 KT/ 700-500 MB FLOW WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS. AND...ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...TRAILING UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER E TX WILL
PROVIDE SOME DEGREE OF LIFT AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. OVERALL SETUP WITH RICH MOISTURE/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
/PER 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS/ AND LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
STRUCTURES. THESE MAY YIELD DMGG GUSTS...SVR HAIL...AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE TORNADOES.  IN THE NEAR TERM...A FEW SVR STORMS WILL ALSO
TRACK GENERALLY E OR ENE ALONG RESIDUAL WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT OVER
NRN FL/S GA...POSSIBLY WITH AN INCREASING SVR RISK /REF MCD 451/.
LATER TODAY...MORE ISOLD SVR STORMS MAY FORM ALONG WEAKENING COLD
FRONT/WIND SHIFT CROSSING NRN PARTS OF MS...AL...AND ERN TN.

...MO ESE INTO KY/TN THIS AFTN/EVE...
A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS SHOULD ARISE WITH AFTN
HEATING OF DRY SLOT ATTENDANT TO WEAKENING...ESE-SHEARING UPR LOW.
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED COMPARED TO POINTS
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THIS RISK AREA. BUT COOL
MID-LVL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD
AMPLE CAPE /AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS GIVEN
CYCLONIC/CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW. 50 KT 700-500 MB WLY WINDS SUGGEST
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SCTD SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG
WIND...AND A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ALONG STNRY FRONT EXTENDING
ESE FROM THE MO SFC LOW INTO SRN IL...SW IND...AND WRN/NRN KY. LOSS
OF SFC HEATING...STORM MERGERS...AND CONTINUED WEAKENING OF UPR LOW
SHOULD FOSTER FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING OF STORMS AFTER SUNSET.

..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 04/25/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 251302
SWODY1
SPC AC 251300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MO ESE INTO ERN KY/FAR
NRN TN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHD RISK AREA
FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS VLY SSE TO THE CNTRL/ERN GULF CST AND THE
CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
FROM PARTS OF E TX TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND NC...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE CAROLINAS. OTHER SEVERE STORMS
MAY OCCUR FROM EASTERN MISSOURI EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE. THE STORMS COULD INCLUDE A FEW TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.

...SYNOPSIS...
KS-MO SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHEAR ESE INTO THE LWR OH VLY
THIS EVE...AND ACROSS THE CNTRL-SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY SUN...AS IT
BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE SW SIDE OF QSTNRY
LOW/TROUGH CENTERED OVER NS. IN THE MEAN TIME...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK
OVER THE RCKYS...DOWNSTREAM FROM SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE...AMPLIFYING
TROUGH ALONG THE W CST.

AT THE SFC...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE KS-MO SYSTEM SHOULD ELONGATE
ESE ACROSS ERN MO...SRN IL...AND WRN/SRN KY LATER TODAY...BEFORE
RE-FORMING EWD OFF THE NC CST EARLY SUN. STRENGTHENING WSWLY LOW-LVL
FLOW S OF THE LOW WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A MODEST ENE ADVANCE OF
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR ACROSS PARTS OF AL...GA...AND SC THROUGH THIS
EVE. WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT TRAILING SW FROM THE LOW SHOULD FURTHER
WEAKEN OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION...WHILE A NEW COOL AIR SURGE
SETTLES S ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS AND OZARKS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.

...SE TX/LWR MS VLY/GULF CST TO CAROLINAS TODAY/TNGT...
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SCTD STRONG TO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS SFC
HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES CORRIDOR ALONG STALLED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH...ATTM
EXTENDING ENE FROM SE TX INTO SRN MS/AL. WHILE THE STRONGEST DEEP
WSWLY FLOW ROUNDING BASE OF MO UPR TROUGH WILL REMAIN N OF THE
REGION...AMPLE /40-50 KT/ 700-500 MB FLOW WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS. AND...ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...TRAILING UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER E TX WILL
PROVIDE SOME DEGREE OF LIFT AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD. OVERALL SETUP WITH RICH MOISTURE/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
/PER 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS/ AND LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
STRUCTURES. THESE MAY YIELD DMGG GUSTS...SVR HAIL...AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE TORNADOES.  IN THE NEAR TERM...A FEW SVR STORMS WILL ALSO
TRACK GENERALLY E OR ENE ALONG RESIDUAL WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT OVER
NRN FL/S GA...POSSIBLY WITH AN INCREASING SVR RISK /REF MCD 451/.
LATER TODAY...MORE ISOLD SVR STORMS MAY FORM ALONG WEAKENING COLD
FRONT/WIND SHIFT CROSSING NRN PARTS OF MS...AL...AND ERN TN.

...MO ESE INTO KY/TN THIS AFTN/EVE...
A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS SHOULD ARISE WITH AFTN
HEATING OF DRY SLOT ATTENDANT TO WEAKENING...ESE-SHEARING UPR LOW.
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED COMPARED TO POINTS
SOUTH...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THIS RISK AREA. BUT COOL
MID-LVL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD
AMPLE CAPE /AROUND 1000 J PER KG/ FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS GIVEN
CYCLONIC/CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW. 50 KT 700-500 MB WLY WINDS SUGGEST
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SCTD SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG
WIND...AND A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ALONG STNRY FRONT EXTENDING
ESE FROM THE MO SFC LOW INTO SRN IL...SW IND...AND WRN/NRN KY. LOSS
OF SFC HEATING...STORM MERGERS...AND CONTINUED WEAKENING OF UPR LOW
SHOULD FOSTER FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING OF STORMS AFTER SUNSET.

..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 04/25/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251241
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-251415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTHWEST GA AND NORTH FL/FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 108...

VALID 251241Z - 251415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 108 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A TORNADO/SOME HAIL
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AL/FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST GA. TORNADO WATCH 108
CONTINUES UNTIL 17Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS AS A
WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED INTO SOUTH GA AND ADDITIONAL PORTIONS
OF NORTH FL.

DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/EXTREME SOUTHEAST AL WITHIN A SPATIALLY
NARROW WARM SECTOR NEAR AND W/SW OF A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT. WHILE A
RECENT 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM TALLAHASSEE FL IS NOT PARTICULARLY
CONDUCIVE FOR NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STORMS...STEADY MOISTENING IS
OCCURRING FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH AID OF 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET. LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR...WITH SOME SURFACE
STATIONS HAVING INCREASED 3-5F IN DEWPOINT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITHIN A
BROADENING WARM SECTOR. VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
WELL-ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   30428723 31638625 31548365 30888300 29838384 30218620
            30428723





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251241
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-251415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTHWEST GA AND NORTH FL/FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 108...

VALID 251241Z - 251415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 108 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A TORNADO/SOME HAIL
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AL/FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST GA. TORNADO WATCH 108
CONTINUES UNTIL 17Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS AS A
WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED INTO SOUTH GA AND ADDITIONAL PORTIONS
OF NORTH FL.

DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/EXTREME SOUTHEAST AL WITHIN A SPATIALLY
NARROW WARM SECTOR NEAR AND W/SW OF A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT. WHILE A
RECENT 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM TALLAHASSEE FL IS NOT PARTICULARLY
CONDUCIVE FOR NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STORMS...STEADY MOISTENING IS
OCCURRING FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH AID OF 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET. LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR...WITH SOME SURFACE
STATIONS HAVING INCREASED 3-5F IN DEWPOINT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITHIN A
BROADENING WARM SECTOR. VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
WELL-ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   30428723 31638625 31548365 30888300 29838384 30218620
            30428723






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251241
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-251415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTHWEST GA AND NORTH FL/FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 108...

VALID 251241Z - 251415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 108 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A TORNADO/SOME HAIL
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AL/FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST GA. TORNADO WATCH 108
CONTINUES UNTIL 17Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS AS A
WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED INTO SOUTH GA AND ADDITIONAL PORTIONS
OF NORTH FL.

DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/EXTREME SOUTHEAST AL WITHIN A SPATIALLY
NARROW WARM SECTOR NEAR AND W/SW OF A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT. WHILE A
RECENT 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM TALLAHASSEE FL IS NOT PARTICULARLY
CONDUCIVE FOR NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STORMS...STEADY MOISTENING IS
OCCURRING FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH AID OF 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET. LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR...WITH SOME SURFACE
STATIONS HAVING INCREASED 3-5F IN DEWPOINT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITHIN A
BROADENING WARM SECTOR. VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
WELL-ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   30428723 31638625 31548365 30888300 29838384 30218620
            30428723





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251241
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-251415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTHWEST GA AND NORTH FL/FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 108...

VALID 251241Z - 251415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 108 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A TORNADO/SOME HAIL
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AL/FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST GA. TORNADO WATCH 108
CONTINUES UNTIL 17Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS AS A
WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED INTO SOUTH GA AND ADDITIONAL PORTIONS
OF NORTH FL.

DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/EXTREME SOUTHEAST AL WITHIN A SPATIALLY
NARROW WARM SECTOR NEAR AND W/SW OF A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT. WHILE A
RECENT 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM TALLAHASSEE FL IS NOT PARTICULARLY
CONDUCIVE FOR NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STORMS...STEADY MOISTENING IS
OCCURRING FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH AID OF 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET. LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR...WITH SOME SURFACE
STATIONS HAVING INCREASED 3-5F IN DEWPOINT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITHIN A
BROADENING WARM SECTOR. VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
WELL-ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   30428723 31638625 31548365 30888300 29838384 30218620
            30428723





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251241
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-251415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTHWEST GA AND NORTH FL/FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 108...

VALID 251241Z - 251415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 108 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A TORNADO/SOME HAIL
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AL/FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST GA. TORNADO WATCH 108
CONTINUES UNTIL 17Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS AS A
WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED INTO SOUTH GA AND ADDITIONAL PORTIONS
OF NORTH FL.

DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/EXTREME SOUTHEAST AL WITHIN A SPATIALLY
NARROW WARM SECTOR NEAR AND W/SW OF A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT. WHILE A
RECENT 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM TALLAHASSEE FL IS NOT PARTICULARLY
CONDUCIVE FOR NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STORMS...STEADY MOISTENING IS
OCCURRING FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH AID OF 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET. LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR...WITH SOME SURFACE
STATIONS HAVING INCREASED 3-5F IN DEWPOINT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITHIN A
BROADENING WARM SECTOR. VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
WELL-ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   30428723 31638625 31548365 30888300 29838384 30218620
            30428723






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251241
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-251415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTHWEST GA AND NORTH FL/FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 108...

VALID 251241Z - 251415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 108 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A TORNADO/SOME HAIL
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AL/FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST GA. TORNADO WATCH 108
CONTINUES UNTIL 17Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS AS A
WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED INTO SOUTH GA AND ADDITIONAL PORTIONS
OF NORTH FL.

DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE/EXTREME SOUTHEAST AL WITHIN A SPATIALLY
NARROW WARM SECTOR NEAR AND W/SW OF A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT. WHILE A
RECENT 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM TALLAHASSEE FL IS NOT PARTICULARLY
CONDUCIVE FOR NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STORMS...STEADY MOISTENING IS
OCCURRING FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH AID OF 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET. LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR...WITH SOME SURFACE
STATIONS HAVING INCREASED 3-5F IN DEWPOINT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITHIN A
BROADENING WARM SECTOR. VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
WELL-ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   30428723 31638625 31548365 30888300 29838384 30218620
            30428723





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251152
TXZ000-251315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0450
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107...

VALID 251152Z - 251315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL REMAINS A CONCERN FROM
PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TOWARD THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 CONTINUES UNTIL 15Z. MONITORING FOR AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX
COAST.

DISCUSSION...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS INCLUDING A
COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS GENERALLY
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX PRIMARILY NEAR/SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. AMID MOIST/CONFLUENCE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE
BUOYANCY REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THE STORM SUSTENANCE TOWARD
ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID-MORNING HOURS. VERY STRONG/INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR
DEVELOPMENT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29209928 29389802 29629633 30189490 30319417 29719412
            28599635 28779950 29209928





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251152
TXZ000-251315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0450
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107...

VALID 251152Z - 251315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL REMAINS A CONCERN FROM
PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TOWARD THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 CONTINUES UNTIL 15Z. MONITORING FOR AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX
COAST.

DISCUSSION...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS INCLUDING A
COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS GENERALLY
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX PRIMARILY NEAR/SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. AMID MOIST/CONFLUENCE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE
BUOYANCY REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THE STORM SUSTENANCE TOWARD
ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID-MORNING HOURS. VERY STRONG/INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR
DEVELOPMENT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29209928 29389802 29629633 30189490 30319417 29719412
            28599635 28779950 29209928





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251152
TXZ000-251315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0450
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107...

VALID 251152Z - 251315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL REMAINS A CONCERN FROM
PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TOWARD THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 CONTINUES UNTIL 15Z. MONITORING FOR AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX
COAST.

DISCUSSION...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS INCLUDING A
COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS GENERALLY
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX PRIMARILY NEAR/SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. AMID MOIST/CONFLUENCE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE
BUOYANCY REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THE STORM SUSTENANCE TOWARD
ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID-MORNING HOURS. VERY STRONG/INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR
DEVELOPMENT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29209928 29389802 29629633 30189490 30319417 29719412
            28599635 28779950 29209928





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251152
TXZ000-251315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0450
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107...

VALID 251152Z - 251315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL REMAINS A CONCERN FROM
PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TOWARD THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 CONTINUES UNTIL 15Z. MONITORING FOR AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX
COAST.

DISCUSSION...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS INCLUDING A
COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS GENERALLY
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX PRIMARILY NEAR/SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. AMID MOIST/CONFLUENCE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE
BUOYANCY REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THE STORM SUSTENANCE TOWARD
ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID-MORNING HOURS. VERY STRONG/INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR
DEVELOPMENT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29209928 29389802 29629633 30189490 30319417 29719412
            28599635 28779950 29209928





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251152
TXZ000-251315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0450
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TO MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107...

VALID 251152Z - 251315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL REMAINS A CONCERN FROM
PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX TOWARD THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107 CONTINUES UNTIL 15Z. MONITORING FOR AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX
COAST.

DISCUSSION...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS INCLUDING A
COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS GENERALLY
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX PRIMARILY NEAR/SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. AMID MOIST/CONFLUENCE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE
BUOYANCY REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THE STORM SUSTENANCE TOWARD
ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID-MORNING HOURS. VERY STRONG/INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR
DEVELOPMENT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29209928 29389802 29629633 30189490 30319417 29719412
            28599635 28779950 29209928






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250931
TXZ000-251100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0431 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107...

VALID 250931Z - 251100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY VICINITY
EARLY THIS MORNING...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 530 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED RIGHT-MOVING/SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUPERCELLS
HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE/SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING IN VICINITY OF A WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST TO
EAST/NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A
DISTINCT CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE
BUOYANCY AND STRONG/UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
CLOUD BEARING LAYER. LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM LAUGHLIN AFB IS
CONSISTENT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AT LEAST 40-50 KT. WHILE LARGE
HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH COULD OCCUR SUCH THAT
DAMAGING WINDS BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN THROUGH EARLY/MID-MORNING.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28619910 29020058 29560075 29939913 30419715 30329610
            29449588 28669676 28629898 28619910





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250931
TXZ000-251100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0431 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107...

VALID 250931Z - 251100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY VICINITY
EARLY THIS MORNING...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 530 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED RIGHT-MOVING/SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUPERCELLS
HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE/SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING IN VICINITY OF A WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST TO
EAST/NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A
DISTINCT CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE
BUOYANCY AND STRONG/UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
CLOUD BEARING LAYER. LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM LAUGHLIN AFB IS
CONSISTENT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AT LEAST 40-50 KT. WHILE LARGE
HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH COULD OCCUR SUCH THAT
DAMAGING WINDS BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN THROUGH EARLY/MID-MORNING.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28619910 29020058 29560075 29939913 30419715 30329610
            29449588 28669676 28629898 28619910






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250931
TXZ000-251100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0431 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107...

VALID 250931Z - 251100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY VICINITY
EARLY THIS MORNING...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 530 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED RIGHT-MOVING/SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUPERCELLS
HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE/SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING IN VICINITY OF A WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST TO
EAST/NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A
DISTINCT CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE
BUOYANCY AND STRONG/UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
CLOUD BEARING LAYER. LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM LAUGHLIN AFB IS
CONSISTENT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AT LEAST 40-50 KT. WHILE LARGE
HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH COULD OCCUR SUCH THAT
DAMAGING WINDS BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN THROUGH EARLY/MID-MORNING.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28619910 29020058 29560075 29939913 30419715 30329610
            29449588 28669676 28629898 28619910





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250931
TXZ000-251100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0431 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107...

VALID 250931Z - 251100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY VICINITY
EARLY THIS MORNING...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 530 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED RIGHT-MOVING/SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUPERCELLS
HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE/SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING IN VICINITY OF A WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST TO
EAST/NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A
DISTINCT CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE
BUOYANCY AND STRONG/UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
CLOUD BEARING LAYER. LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM LAUGHLIN AFB IS
CONSISTENT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AT LEAST 40-50 KT. WHILE LARGE
HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH COULD OCCUR SUCH THAT
DAMAGING WINDS BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN THROUGH EARLY/MID-MORNING.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28619910 29020058 29560075 29939913 30419715 30329610
            29449588 28669676 28629898 28619910





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250931
TXZ000-251100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0431 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107...

VALID 250931Z - 251100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY VICINITY
EARLY THIS MORNING...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 530 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED RIGHT-MOVING/SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUPERCELLS
HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE/SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING IN VICINITY OF A WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST TO
EAST/NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A
DISTINCT CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE
BUOYANCY AND STRONG/UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
CLOUD BEARING LAYER. LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM LAUGHLIN AFB IS
CONSISTENT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AT LEAST 40-50 KT. WHILE LARGE
HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH COULD OCCUR SUCH THAT
DAMAGING WINDS BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN THROUGH EARLY/MID-MORNING.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28619910 29020058 29560075 29939913 30419715 30329610
            29449588 28669676 28629898 28619910






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250931
TXZ000-251100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0431 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107...

VALID 250931Z - 251100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY VICINITY
EARLY THIS MORNING...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 530 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED RIGHT-MOVING/SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUPERCELLS
HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE/SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING IN VICINITY OF A WEAK WEST/SOUTHWEST TO
EAST/NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A
DISTINCT CONCERN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE
BUOYANCY AND STRONG/UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
CLOUD BEARING LAYER. LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM LAUGHLIN AFB IS
CONSISTENT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AT LEAST 40-50 KT. WHILE LARGE
HAIL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING...IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH COULD OCCUR SUCH THAT
DAMAGING WINDS BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN THROUGH EARLY/MID-MORNING.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28619910 29020058 29560075 29939913 30419715 30329610
            29449588 28669676 28629898 28619910





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250912
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-251015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0448
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0412 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST-CENTRAL MS AND SOUTHERN AL/WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 106...

VALID 250912Z - 251015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 106 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY FROM FAR EAST-CENTRAL MS INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL AL EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE STORMS COULD
ALSO INCREASE/POSE A SEVERE RISK ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MS/FAR
SOUTHERN AL/WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. TORNADO WATCH 106 CONTINUES UNTIL
13Z...AND DOWNSTREAM TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WATCH.

DISCUSSION...A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO STEADILY
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND FAR
EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL MS AS OF 09Z/400AM CDT. THE INTEGRITY OF
THE CONVECTIVE LINE/EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING WHILE INFRARED SATELLITE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DISTINCT CLOUD-TOP WARMING TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIKELY WELL PAST ITS PEAK IN TORNADO WATCH
106...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
WITH THE SQUALL LINE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS IS PARTICULARLY
GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/MOISTEN EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AL VIA THE WARM FRONT WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL
VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY STRONG. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT
ADDITIONAL/MORE RECENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
MS COULD INTENSIFY AND POTENTIALLY POSE A SEVERE/POSSIBLE TORNADO
RISK INTO SOUTHWEST AL/WESTERN FL PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31918923 32678818 32928710 31588638 30408709 30518903
            31538882 31918923





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250912
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-251015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0448
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0412 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST-CENTRAL MS AND SOUTHERN AL/WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 106...

VALID 250912Z - 251015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 106 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY FROM FAR EAST-CENTRAL MS INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL AL EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE STORMS COULD
ALSO INCREASE/POSE A SEVERE RISK ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MS/FAR
SOUTHERN AL/WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. TORNADO WATCH 106 CONTINUES UNTIL
13Z...AND DOWNSTREAM TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WATCH.

DISCUSSION...A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO STEADILY
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND FAR
EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL MS AS OF 09Z/400AM CDT. THE INTEGRITY OF
THE CONVECTIVE LINE/EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING WHILE INFRARED SATELLITE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DISTINCT CLOUD-TOP WARMING TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIKELY WELL PAST ITS PEAK IN TORNADO WATCH
106...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
WITH THE SQUALL LINE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS IS PARTICULARLY
GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/MOISTEN EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AL VIA THE WARM FRONT WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL
VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY STRONG. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT
ADDITIONAL/MORE RECENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
MS COULD INTENSIFY AND POTENTIALLY POSE A SEVERE/POSSIBLE TORNADO
RISK INTO SOUTHWEST AL/WESTERN FL PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31918923 32678818 32928710 31588638 30408709 30518903
            31538882 31918923





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250912
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-251015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0448
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0412 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST-CENTRAL MS AND SOUTHERN AL/WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 106...

VALID 250912Z - 251015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 106 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY FROM FAR EAST-CENTRAL MS INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL AL EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE STORMS COULD
ALSO INCREASE/POSE A SEVERE RISK ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MS/FAR
SOUTHERN AL/WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. TORNADO WATCH 106 CONTINUES UNTIL
13Z...AND DOWNSTREAM TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WATCH.

DISCUSSION...A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO STEADILY
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND FAR
EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL MS AS OF 09Z/400AM CDT. THE INTEGRITY OF
THE CONVECTIVE LINE/EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING WHILE INFRARED SATELLITE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DISTINCT CLOUD-TOP WARMING TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIKELY WELL PAST ITS PEAK IN TORNADO WATCH
106...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
WITH THE SQUALL LINE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS IS PARTICULARLY
GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/MOISTEN EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AL VIA THE WARM FRONT WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL
VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY STRONG. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT
ADDITIONAL/MORE RECENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
MS COULD INTENSIFY AND POTENTIALLY POSE A SEVERE/POSSIBLE TORNADO
RISK INTO SOUTHWEST AL/WESTERN FL PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31918923 32678818 32928710 31588638 30408709 30518903
            31538882 31918923






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250748
TXZ000-250915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 250748Z - 250915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE/DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX...WITH SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY RISK.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TX...GENERALLY BETWEEN THE DEL RIO/SAN ANTONIO VICINITIES AS OF
0730Z/230AM CDT. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN A
MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR A RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY...WITH THE 00Z DEL RIO OBSERVED SOUNDING PREVIOUSLY
SAMPLING 2600+ MLCAPE AND A 15 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO WITH 1.55 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER. GIVEN THIS RESERVOIR OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL SUPPORT SPLITTING STORMS/SOME
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29240055 29800016 30209896 29989719 29409654 28689686
            28329813 28850014 29240055





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250748
TXZ000-250915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 250748Z - 250915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE/DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX...WITH SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY RISK.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TX...GENERALLY BETWEEN THE DEL RIO/SAN ANTONIO VICINITIES AS OF
0730Z/230AM CDT. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN A
MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR A RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY...WITH THE 00Z DEL RIO OBSERVED SOUNDING PREVIOUSLY
SAMPLING 2600+ MLCAPE AND A 15 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO WITH 1.55 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER. GIVEN THIS RESERVOIR OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL SUPPORT SPLITTING STORMS/SOME
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29240055 29800016 30209896 29989719 29409654 28689686
            28329813 28850014 29240055





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250748
TXZ000-250915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 250748Z - 250915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE/DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX...WITH SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY RISK.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TX...GENERALLY BETWEEN THE DEL RIO/SAN ANTONIO VICINITIES AS OF
0730Z/230AM CDT. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN A
MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR A RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY...WITH THE 00Z DEL RIO OBSERVED SOUNDING PREVIOUSLY
SAMPLING 2600+ MLCAPE AND A 15 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO WITH 1.55 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER. GIVEN THIS RESERVOIR OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL SUPPORT SPLITTING STORMS/SOME
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29240055 29800016 30209896 29989719 29409654 28689686
            28329813 28850014 29240055






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250748
TXZ000-250915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 250748Z - 250915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE/DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX...WITH SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY RISK.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TX...GENERALLY BETWEEN THE DEL RIO/SAN ANTONIO VICINITIES AS OF
0730Z/230AM CDT. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN A
MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR A RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY...WITH THE 00Z DEL RIO OBSERVED SOUNDING PREVIOUSLY
SAMPLING 2600+ MLCAPE AND A 15 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO WITH 1.55 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER. GIVEN THIS RESERVOIR OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL SUPPORT SPLITTING STORMS/SOME
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29240055 29800016 30209896 29989719 29409654 28689686
            28329813 28850014 29240055






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250748
TXZ000-250915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0447
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 250748Z - 250915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
INCREASE/DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX...WITH SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY RISK.

DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
TX...GENERALLY BETWEEN THE DEL RIO/SAN ANTONIO VICINITIES AS OF
0730Z/230AM CDT. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN A
MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR A RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY...WITH THE 00Z DEL RIO OBSERVED SOUNDING PREVIOUSLY
SAMPLING 2600+ MLCAPE AND A 15 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO WITH 1.55 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER. GIVEN THIS RESERVOIR OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL SUPPORT SPLITTING STORMS/SOME
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29240055 29800016 30209896 29989719 29409654 28689686
            28329813 28850014 29240055





000
ACUS03 KWNS 250710
SWODY3
SPC AC 250709

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX TO THE CNTRL GULF
COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLGT RISK...

CORRECTED FOR MRGL DESCRIPTION

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD.

...TX TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...

LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL EJECT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY2-3 TIME FRAME.  AS UPPER
LOW SHIFTS INTO SRN OK IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTH TX TOWARD THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LEVEL JET.  THE PROSPECT FOR STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO POST DRY LINE REGION OF TX BUT SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED ACROSS EAST TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST FOR
ROBUST ORGANIZED STORMS.  THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR CONCENTRATED
ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS EAST TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHERE LLJ SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL JET.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND PROFILES STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  SOUTH OF
SYNOPTIC FRONT/EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY A CORRIDOR OF VERY MOIST AND
SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT AIR COULD SUPPORT TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD ALONG
CNTRL GULF COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 04/25/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 250710
SWODY3
SPC AC 250709

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX TO THE CNTRL GULF
COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLGT RISK...

CORRECTED FOR MRGL DESCRIPTION

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD.

...TX TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...

LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL EJECT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY2-3 TIME FRAME.  AS UPPER
LOW SHIFTS INTO SRN OK IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTH TX TOWARD THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LEVEL JET.  THE PROSPECT FOR STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO POST DRY LINE REGION OF TX BUT SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED ACROSS EAST TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST FOR
ROBUST ORGANIZED STORMS.  THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR CONCENTRATED
ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS EAST TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHERE LLJ SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL JET.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND PROFILES STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  SOUTH OF
SYNOPTIC FRONT/EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY A CORRIDOR OF VERY MOIST AND
SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT AIR COULD SUPPORT TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD ALONG
CNTRL GULF COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 04/25/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250707
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-250830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0446
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS TO WEST-CENTRAL AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 104...105...106...

VALID 250707Z - 250830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
104...105...106...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND COUPLE OF TORNADOES
CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/PARTS OF NORTHERN MS INTO WEST-CENTRAL AL
OVERNIGHT. TORNADO WATCHES 105/106 CONTINUE UNTIL 09Z/13Z
RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...LEWP SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MS...WITH THE STRONGEST EMBEDDED
UPDRAFT AND BOW/EMBEDDED CIRCULATION NOW REACHING THE I-55 CORRIDOR
JUST NORTH OF JACKSON AS OF 07Z/200AM CDT. THE WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET AS OF 06Z. A
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...AND THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE LINE
SHOULD REMAIN SEMI-FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL MS INTO
WEST-CENTRAL AL NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE
MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW IS MAXIMIZED. WITH AID OF A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...A SPECIAL 06Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM
JACKSON SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION SINCE EARLIER
THIS EVENING /00Z/ WITH 600+ J/KG MLCAPE AND AROUND 1.8 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA AND THE 06Z JACKSON
SOUNDING SHOW THAT STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...INCLUDING 300+ M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAXIMIZED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...REMAINS VERY SUPPORT OF QUASI-LINEAR ORGANIZATION WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/MESOVORTICES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS/TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL MS INTO
WEST-CENTRAL AL.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32349127 32649023 33268975 33948891 33588726 31918822
            31949050 32349127





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250707
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-250830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0446
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS TO WEST-CENTRAL AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 104...105...106...

VALID 250707Z - 250830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
104...105...106...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND COUPLE OF TORNADOES
CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/PARTS OF NORTHERN MS INTO WEST-CENTRAL AL
OVERNIGHT. TORNADO WATCHES 105/106 CONTINUE UNTIL 09Z/13Z
RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...LEWP SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MS...WITH THE STRONGEST EMBEDDED
UPDRAFT AND BOW/EMBEDDED CIRCULATION NOW REACHING THE I-55 CORRIDOR
JUST NORTH OF JACKSON AS OF 07Z/200AM CDT. THE WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET AS OF 06Z. A
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...AND THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE LINE
SHOULD REMAIN SEMI-FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL MS INTO
WEST-CENTRAL AL NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE
MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW IS MAXIMIZED. WITH AID OF A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...A SPECIAL 06Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM
JACKSON SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION SINCE EARLIER
THIS EVENING /00Z/ WITH 600+ J/KG MLCAPE AND AROUND 1.8 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA AND THE 06Z JACKSON
SOUNDING SHOW THAT STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...INCLUDING 300+ M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAXIMIZED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...REMAINS VERY SUPPORT OF QUASI-LINEAR ORGANIZATION WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/MESOVORTICES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS/TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL MS INTO
WEST-CENTRAL AL.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32349127 32649023 33268975 33948891 33588726 31918822
            31949050 32349127





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250707
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-250830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0446
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS TO WEST-CENTRAL AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 104...105...106...

VALID 250707Z - 250830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
104...105...106...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND COUPLE OF TORNADOES
CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/PARTS OF NORTHERN MS INTO WEST-CENTRAL AL
OVERNIGHT. TORNADO WATCHES 105/106 CONTINUE UNTIL 09Z/13Z
RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...LEWP SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MS...WITH THE STRONGEST EMBEDDED
UPDRAFT AND BOW/EMBEDDED CIRCULATION NOW REACHING THE I-55 CORRIDOR
JUST NORTH OF JACKSON AS OF 07Z/200AM CDT. THE WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET AS OF 06Z. A
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...AND THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE LINE
SHOULD REMAIN SEMI-FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL MS INTO
WEST-CENTRAL AL NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE
MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW IS MAXIMIZED. WITH AID OF A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...A SPECIAL 06Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM
JACKSON SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION SINCE EARLIER
THIS EVENING /00Z/ WITH 600+ J/KG MLCAPE AND AROUND 1.8 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA AND THE 06Z JACKSON
SOUNDING SHOW THAT STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...INCLUDING 300+ M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAXIMIZED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...REMAINS VERY SUPPORT OF QUASI-LINEAR ORGANIZATION WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/MESOVORTICES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS/TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL MS INTO
WEST-CENTRAL AL.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32349127 32649023 33268975 33948891 33588726 31918822
            31949050 32349127






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250707
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-250830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0446
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS TO WEST-CENTRAL AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 104...105...106...

VALID 250707Z - 250830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
104...105...106...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND COUPLE OF TORNADOES
CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/PARTS OF NORTHERN MS INTO WEST-CENTRAL AL
OVERNIGHT. TORNADO WATCHES 105/106 CONTINUE UNTIL 09Z/13Z
RESPECTIVELY.

DISCUSSION...LEWP SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MS...WITH THE STRONGEST EMBEDDED
UPDRAFT AND BOW/EMBEDDED CIRCULATION NOW REACHING THE I-55 CORRIDOR
JUST NORTH OF JACKSON AS OF 07Z/200AM CDT. THE WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET AS OF 06Z. A
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...AND THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE LINE
SHOULD REMAIN SEMI-FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL MS INTO
WEST-CENTRAL AL NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE
MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW IS MAXIMIZED. WITH AID OF A STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...A SPECIAL 06Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM
JACKSON SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION SINCE EARLIER
THIS EVENING /00Z/ WITH 600+ J/KG MLCAPE AND AROUND 1.8 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA AND THE 06Z JACKSON
SOUNDING SHOW THAT STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...INCLUDING 300+ M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAXIMIZED NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...REMAINS VERY SUPPORT OF QUASI-LINEAR ORGANIZATION WITH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/MESOVORTICES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS/TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL MS INTO
WEST-CENTRAL AL.

..GUYER.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32349127 32649023 33268975 33948891 33588726 31918822
            31949050 32349127





000
ACUS03 KWNS 250706
SWODY3
SPC AC 250705

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX TO THE CNTRL GULF
COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD.

...TX TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...

LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL EJECT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY2-3 TIME FRAME.  AS UPPER
LOW SHIFTS INTO SRN OK IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTH TX TOWARD THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LEVEL JET.  THE PROSPECT FOR STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO POST DRY LINE REGION OF TX BUT SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED ACROSS EAST TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST FOR
ROBUST ORGANIZED STORMS.  THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR CONCENTRATED
ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS EAST TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHERE LLJ SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL JET.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND PROFILES STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  SOUTH OF
SYNOPTIC FRONT/EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY A CORRIDOR OF VERY MOIST AND
SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT AIR COULD SUPPORT TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD ALONG
CNTRL GULF COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 04/25/2015





000
ACUS03 KWNS 250706
SWODY3
SPC AC 250705

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX TO THE CNTRL GULF
COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD.

...TX TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...

LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL EJECT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY2-3 TIME FRAME.  AS UPPER
LOW SHIFTS INTO SRN OK IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTH TX TOWARD THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LEVEL JET.  THE PROSPECT FOR STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO POST DRY LINE REGION OF TX BUT SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED ACROSS EAST TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST FOR
ROBUST ORGANIZED STORMS.  THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR CONCENTRATED
ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS EAST TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHERE LLJ SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL JET.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND PROFILES STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  SOUTH OF
SYNOPTIC FRONT/EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY A CORRIDOR OF VERY MOIST AND
SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT AIR COULD SUPPORT TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD ALONG
CNTRL GULF COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 04/25/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 250706
SWODY3
SPC AC 250705

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX TO THE CNTRL GULF
COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD.

...TX TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...

LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL EJECT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY2-3 TIME FRAME.  AS UPPER
LOW SHIFTS INTO SRN OK IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTH TX TOWARD THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LEVEL JET.  THE PROSPECT FOR STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO POST DRY LINE REGION OF TX BUT SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED ACROSS EAST TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST FOR
ROBUST ORGANIZED STORMS.  THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR CONCENTRATED
ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS EAST TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHERE LLJ SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL JET.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND PROFILES STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  SOUTH OF
SYNOPTIC FRONT/EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY A CORRIDOR OF VERY MOIST AND
SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT AIR COULD SUPPORT TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD ALONG
CNTRL GULF COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 04/25/2015





000
ACUS03 KWNS 250706
SWODY3
SPC AC 250705

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX TO THE CNTRL GULF
COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST TEXAS TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD.

...TX TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...

LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER LOW WILL EJECT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY2-3 TIME FRAME.  AS UPPER
LOW SHIFTS INTO SRN OK IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS SOUTH TX TOWARD THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LEVEL JET.  THE PROSPECT FOR STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO POST DRY LINE REGION OF TX BUT SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED ACROSS EAST TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST FOR
ROBUST ORGANIZED STORMS.  THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR CONCENTRATED
ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS EAST TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHERE LLJ SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL JET.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH
HEIGHT AND PROFILES STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  SOUTH OF
SYNOPTIC FRONT/EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY A CORRIDOR OF VERY MOIST AND
SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT AIR COULD SUPPORT TORNADOES GIVEN THE STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD ALONG
CNTRL GULF COAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 04/25/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 250556
SWODY1
SPC AC 250555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN
GULF STATES INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLGT RISK AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE...WHERE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES BY EARLY EVENING.  OTHER STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES INTO
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE
MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST.  THE LATTER IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SIERRA NEVADA LATER TODAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF
ARIZONA BY LATE TONIGHT.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT
REGIME...INTO AN ELONGATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE CENTER OF
WHICH IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.  THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AN ASSOCIATED FILLING SURFACE CYCLONE...ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE
SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES ON THE FRONT NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.  AT THE SAME TIME...MID/UPPER FLOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG AND BROADLY
ANTICYCLONIC...BUT WITH A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED...PROGRESSIVE
PERTURBATIONS.

...MID MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ONGOING BY 12Z TODAY...AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG AN EVOLVING DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS BAND...A NARROW
WEDGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WRAPPING INTO THE WEAKENING
SURFACE CYCLONE...BENEATH AN EVOLVING MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MODERATELY LARGE CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG BY THIS
AFTERNOON.  IN THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY STRONG AND SHEARED...BUT
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO INTO TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK
INTENSITY...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

...EASTERN GULF STATES INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...
A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
SPREADING ACROSS/EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GENERALLY
BENEATH THE STRONGLY DIFLUENT REGIME BETWEEN THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JET AXES.  MUCH AS THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH HAS
SUGGESTED...THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY  CONTINUE SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GEORGIA BY 12Z
THIS MORNING.  THIS PROBABLY WILL OCCUR QUICKER THAN THE MORE
APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
THROUGH THE DAY.  AND ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGH MIDDAY.
HOWEVER...RE-INTENSIFICATION COULD TAKE PLACE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...WITH ADDITIONAL NEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WESTWARD ALONG THE TRAILING WIND SHIFT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF STATES.  DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...GIVEN AT LEAST WEAK TO
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.

..KERR/ROGERS.. 04/25/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 250556
SWODY1
SPC AC 250555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN
GULF STATES INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLGT RISK AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE...WHERE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES BY EARLY EVENING.  OTHER STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES INTO
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE
MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST.  THE LATTER IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SIERRA NEVADA LATER TODAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF
ARIZONA BY LATE TONIGHT.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT
REGIME...INTO AN ELONGATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE CENTER OF
WHICH IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.  THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AN ASSOCIATED FILLING SURFACE CYCLONE...ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE
SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES ON THE FRONT NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.  AT THE SAME TIME...MID/UPPER FLOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG AND BROADLY
ANTICYCLONIC...BUT WITH A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED...PROGRESSIVE
PERTURBATIONS.

...MID MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ONGOING BY 12Z TODAY...AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG AN EVOLVING DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS BAND...A NARROW
WEDGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WRAPPING INTO THE WEAKENING
SURFACE CYCLONE...BENEATH AN EVOLVING MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MODERATELY LARGE CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG BY THIS
AFTERNOON.  IN THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY STRONG AND SHEARED...BUT
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO INTO TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK
INTENSITY...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

...EASTERN GULF STATES INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...
A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
SPREADING ACROSS/EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GENERALLY
BENEATH THE STRONGLY DIFLUENT REGIME BETWEEN THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JET AXES.  MUCH AS THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH HAS
SUGGESTED...THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY  CONTINUE SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GEORGIA BY 12Z
THIS MORNING.  THIS PROBABLY WILL OCCUR QUICKER THAN THE MORE
APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
THROUGH THE DAY.  AND ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGH MIDDAY.
HOWEVER...RE-INTENSIFICATION COULD TAKE PLACE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...WITH ADDITIONAL NEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WESTWARD ALONG THE TRAILING WIND SHIFT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF STATES.  DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...GIVEN AT LEAST WEAK TO
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.

..KERR/ROGERS.. 04/25/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 250556
SWODY1
SPC AC 250555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN
GULF STATES INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLGT RISK AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE...WHERE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES BY EARLY EVENING.  OTHER STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES INTO
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE
MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST.  THE LATTER IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SIERRA NEVADA LATER TODAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF
ARIZONA BY LATE TONIGHT.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT
REGIME...INTO AN ELONGATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE CENTER OF
WHICH IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.  THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AN ASSOCIATED FILLING SURFACE CYCLONE...ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE
SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES ON THE FRONT NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.  AT THE SAME TIME...MID/UPPER FLOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG AND BROADLY
ANTICYCLONIC...BUT WITH A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED...PROGRESSIVE
PERTURBATIONS.

...MID MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ONGOING BY 12Z TODAY...AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG AN EVOLVING DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS BAND...A NARROW
WEDGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WRAPPING INTO THE WEAKENING
SURFACE CYCLONE...BENEATH AN EVOLVING MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MODERATELY LARGE CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG BY THIS
AFTERNOON.  IN THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY STRONG AND SHEARED...BUT
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO INTO TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK
INTENSITY...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

...EASTERN GULF STATES INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...
A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
SPREADING ACROSS/EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GENERALLY
BENEATH THE STRONGLY DIFLUENT REGIME BETWEEN THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JET AXES.  MUCH AS THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH HAS
SUGGESTED...THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY  CONTINUE SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GEORGIA BY 12Z
THIS MORNING.  THIS PROBABLY WILL OCCUR QUICKER THAN THE MORE
APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
THROUGH THE DAY.  AND ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGH MIDDAY.
HOWEVER...RE-INTENSIFICATION COULD TAKE PLACE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...WITH ADDITIONAL NEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WESTWARD ALONG THE TRAILING WIND SHIFT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF STATES.  DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...GIVEN AT LEAST WEAK TO
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.

..KERR/ROGERS.. 04/25/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 250556
SWODY1
SPC AC 250555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN
GULF STATES INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLGT RISK AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN TENNESSEE...WHERE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES BY EARLY EVENING.  OTHER STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES INTO
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE
MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST.  THE LATTER IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SIERRA NEVADA LATER TODAY...AND THROUGH MUCH OF
ARIZONA BY LATE TONIGHT.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT
REGIME...INTO AN ELONGATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE CENTER OF
WHICH IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST.  THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND AN ASSOCIATED FILLING SURFACE CYCLONE...ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE
SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS INITIATES ON THE FRONT NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.  AT THE SAME TIME...MID/UPPER FLOW CLOSER TO
THE GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG AND BROADLY
ANTICYCLONIC...BUT WITH A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED...PROGRESSIVE
PERTURBATIONS.

...MID MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ONGOING BY 12Z TODAY...AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG AN EVOLVING DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS BAND...A NARROW
WEDGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WRAPPING INTO THE WEAKENING
SURFACE CYCLONE...BENEATH AN EVOLVING MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MODERATELY LARGE CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG BY THIS
AFTERNOON.  IN THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY STRONG AND SHEARED...BUT
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...CONDITIONS
APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO INTO TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK
INTENSITY...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

...EASTERN GULF STATES INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...
A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF
SPREADING ACROSS/EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...GENERALLY
BENEATH THE STRONGLY DIFLUENT REGIME BETWEEN THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JET AXES.  MUCH AS THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH HAS
SUGGESTED...THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY  CONTINUE SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GEORGIA BY 12Z
THIS MORNING.  THIS PROBABLY WILL OCCUR QUICKER THAN THE MORE
APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
THROUGH THE DAY.  AND ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGH MIDDAY.
HOWEVER...RE-INTENSIFICATION COULD TAKE PLACE AS IT APPROACHES SOUTH
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...WITH ADDITIONAL NEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WESTWARD ALONG THE TRAILING WIND SHIFT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF STATES.  DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...GIVEN AT LEAST WEAK TO
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.

..KERR/ROGERS.. 04/25/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250445
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-250615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA...SERN AR AND CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 105...

VALID 250445Z - 250615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 105 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR MOSTLY DAMAGING
WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES AS THEY CONTINUE THROUGH NRN LA...SERN AR
AND CNTRL MS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST
EAST OF WW ACROSS NNTRL MS...SO WW CAN BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FARTHER
EAST AS NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION WITH BOWING
STRUCTURES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AT AROUND
50 KT. STORMS WITHIN THE LINE CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT BOWING STRUCTURES
AS WELL AS EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES. VWP DATA INDICATE VERY IMPRESSIVE
WIND PROFILES WITH LARGE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH CNTRL MS WHERE
STRONG INFLOW FROM THE MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN A FORWARD
PROPAGATING SYSTEM WITHIN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OTHER
MORE DISCRETE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL MS WITHIN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME JUST NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...SO ANY TORNADO THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS
CONDITIONAL UPON UPDRAFTS BEING ABLE TO ROOT INTO THE NEAR-SFC
LAYER.

..DIAL.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON   32279296 32839206 33139104 33659048 33488879 32838892
            32438978 32549035 31909110 31869367 32279296





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250445
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-250615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA...SERN AR AND CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 105...

VALID 250445Z - 250615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 105 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR MOSTLY DAMAGING
WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES AS THEY CONTINUE THROUGH NRN LA...SERN AR
AND CNTRL MS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST
EAST OF WW ACROSS NNTRL MS...SO WW CAN BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FARTHER
EAST AS NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION WITH BOWING
STRUCTURES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AT AROUND
50 KT. STORMS WITHIN THE LINE CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT BOWING STRUCTURES
AS WELL AS EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES. VWP DATA INDICATE VERY IMPRESSIVE
WIND PROFILES WITH LARGE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH CNTRL MS WHERE
STRONG INFLOW FROM THE MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN A FORWARD
PROPAGATING SYSTEM WITHIN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OTHER
MORE DISCRETE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL MS WITHIN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME JUST NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...SO ANY TORNADO THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS
CONDITIONAL UPON UPDRAFTS BEING ABLE TO ROOT INTO THE NEAR-SFC
LAYER.

..DIAL.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON   32279296 32839206 33139104 33659048 33488879 32838892
            32438978 32549035 31909110 31869367 32279296





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250445
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-250615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA...SERN AR AND CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 105...

VALID 250445Z - 250615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 105 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR MOSTLY DAMAGING
WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES AS THEY CONTINUE THROUGH NRN LA...SERN AR
AND CNTRL MS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST
EAST OF WW ACROSS NNTRL MS...SO WW CAN BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FARTHER
EAST AS NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION WITH BOWING
STRUCTURES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AT AROUND
50 KT. STORMS WITHIN THE LINE CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT BOWING STRUCTURES
AS WELL AS EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES. VWP DATA INDICATE VERY IMPRESSIVE
WIND PROFILES WITH LARGE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH CNTRL MS WHERE
STRONG INFLOW FROM THE MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN A FORWARD
PROPAGATING SYSTEM WITHIN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OTHER
MORE DISCRETE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL MS WITHIN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME JUST NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...SO ANY TORNADO THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS
CONDITIONAL UPON UPDRAFTS BEING ABLE TO ROOT INTO THE NEAR-SFC
LAYER.

..DIAL.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON   32279296 32839206 33139104 33659048 33488879 32838892
            32438978 32549035 31909110 31869367 32279296






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250445
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-250615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA...SERN AR AND CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 105...

VALID 250445Z - 250615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 105 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR MOSTLY DAMAGING
WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES AS THEY CONTINUE THROUGH NRN LA...SERN AR
AND CNTRL MS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST
EAST OF WW ACROSS NNTRL MS...SO WW CAN BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FARTHER
EAST AS NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION WITH BOWING
STRUCTURES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AT AROUND
50 KT. STORMS WITHIN THE LINE CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT BOWING STRUCTURES
AS WELL AS EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES. VWP DATA INDICATE VERY IMPRESSIVE
WIND PROFILES WITH LARGE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH CNTRL MS WHERE
STRONG INFLOW FROM THE MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN A FORWARD
PROPAGATING SYSTEM WITHIN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OTHER
MORE DISCRETE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL MS WITHIN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME JUST NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...SO ANY TORNADO THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS
CONDITIONAL UPON UPDRAFTS BEING ABLE TO ROOT INTO THE NEAR-SFC
LAYER.

..DIAL.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON   32279296 32839206 33139104 33659048 33488879 32838892
            32438978 32549035 31909110 31869367 32279296





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250445
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-250615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA...SERN AR AND CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 105...

VALID 250445Z - 250615Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 105 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR MOSTLY DAMAGING
WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES AS THEY CONTINUE THROUGH NRN LA...SERN AR
AND CNTRL MS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST
EAST OF WW ACROSS NNTRL MS...SO WW CAN BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FARTHER
EAST AS NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION WITH BOWING
STRUCTURES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION AT AROUND
50 KT. STORMS WITHIN THE LINE CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT BOWING STRUCTURES
AS WELL AS EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES. VWP DATA INDICATE VERY IMPRESSIVE
WIND PROFILES WITH LARGE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH CNTRL MS WHERE
STRONG INFLOW FROM THE MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN A FORWARD
PROPAGATING SYSTEM WITHIN A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OTHER
MORE DISCRETE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NCNTRL MS WITHIN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME JUST NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...SO ANY TORNADO THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS
CONDITIONAL UPON UPDRAFTS BEING ABLE TO ROOT INTO THE NEAR-SFC
LAYER.

..DIAL.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...

LAT...LON   32279296 32839206 33139104 33659048 33488879 32838892
            32438978 32549035 31909110 31869367 32279296





000
ACUS02 KWNS 250437
SWODY2
SPC AC 250435

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES
REGION...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF COAST STATES.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

FOCUSED ZONE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE DAY2 PERIOD.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONG
JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BASE OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
OVER NRN MEXICO...THEN EJECT INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS
ASCENT ALONG DRY LINE AS MODEST LLJ RESPONDS AND IMPINGES ON
SWD-SAGGING SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS OK.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
READILY DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION CORRIDOR ACROSS OK...ALONG
COOL SIDE OF FRONTAL ZONE...PRIMARILY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STRONGEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG DRY LINE NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 27/00Z AS MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO AFOREMENTIONED REGION
OF ASCENT ACROSS WCNTRL TX.  BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY
BE RETARDED IN NWWD ADVANCEMENT DUE TO WEAK COASTAL/CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD DISRUPT SLY TRAJECTORIES.  HOWEVER...SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F SHOULD ENCOUNTER THE DRY LINE
NEAR SUNSET AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  LARGE
HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES OVER OK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...GULF STATES...

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF STATES SUNDAY...THOUGH FORCING IS MORE NEBULOUS AS SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  DIURNAL
HEATING ALONG SWD-ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE COULD ENCOURAGE A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND COASTAL BREEZES COULD ALSO INITIATE STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN SEASONALLY STRONG WLY FLOW REGIME.  HAIL/WIND ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION.

..DARROW.. 04/25/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 250437
SWODY2
SPC AC 250435

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES
REGION...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF COAST STATES.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

FOCUSED ZONE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE DAY2 PERIOD.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONG
JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BASE OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
OVER NRN MEXICO...THEN EJECT INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS
ASCENT ALONG DRY LINE AS MODEST LLJ RESPONDS AND IMPINGES ON
SWD-SAGGING SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS OK.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
READILY DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION CORRIDOR ACROSS OK...ALONG
COOL SIDE OF FRONTAL ZONE...PRIMARILY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STRONGEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG DRY LINE NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 27/00Z AS MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO AFOREMENTIONED REGION
OF ASCENT ACROSS WCNTRL TX.  BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY
BE RETARDED IN NWWD ADVANCEMENT DUE TO WEAK COASTAL/CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD DISRUPT SLY TRAJECTORIES.  HOWEVER...SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F SHOULD ENCOUNTER THE DRY LINE
NEAR SUNSET AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  LARGE
HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES OVER OK DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...GULF STATES...

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF STATES SUNDAY...THOUGH FORCING IS MORE NEBULOUS AS SHORT-WAVE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  DIURNAL
HEATING ALONG SWD-ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE COULD ENCOURAGE A FEW
STRONG STORMS AND COASTAL BREEZES COULD ALSO INITIATE STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN SEASONALLY STRONG WLY FLOW REGIME.  HAIL/WIND ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION.

..DARROW.. 04/25/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250355
TXZ000-250500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0444
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CNTRL THROUGH S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104...

VALID 250355Z - 250500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST
OVER DEEP S TX THROUGH 05Z...BUT THREAT ACROSS REMAINDER OF WW 104
HAS DIMINISHED AND NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS RESULTED IN A
SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN SURFACE BASED STORMS OVER ALL EXCEPT FOR
DEEP S TX WHERE A STRONG/SEVERE STORM IS MOVING INTO SRN HIDALGO
COUNTY. THIS STORM WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL OVER SRN HIDALGO AND POSSIBLY INTO CAMERON COUNTY. THE 00Z
BROWNSVILLE RAOB SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL CAP...BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIGHT BE STRONG AND DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN THE STORM ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF DEEP S TX.
OTHERWISE...NUMEROUS ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REST OF SOUTH AND SCNTRL TX...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BASED
AOA 700 MB AND WILL NOT LIKELY POSE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

LAT...LON   26219846 26499764 25949735 26219846





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250355
TXZ000-250500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0444
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CNTRL THROUGH S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104...

VALID 250355Z - 250500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST
OVER DEEP S TX THROUGH 05Z...BUT THREAT ACROSS REMAINDER OF WW 104
HAS DIMINISHED AND NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS RESULTED IN A
SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN SURFACE BASED STORMS OVER ALL EXCEPT FOR
DEEP S TX WHERE A STRONG/SEVERE STORM IS MOVING INTO SRN HIDALGO
COUNTY. THIS STORM WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL OVER SRN HIDALGO AND POSSIBLY INTO CAMERON COUNTY. THE 00Z
BROWNSVILLE RAOB SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL CAP...BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIGHT BE STRONG AND DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN THE STORM ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF DEEP S TX.
OTHERWISE...NUMEROUS ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REST OF SOUTH AND SCNTRL TX...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BASED
AOA 700 MB AND WILL NOT LIKELY POSE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

LAT...LON   26219846 26499764 25949735 26219846





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250355
TXZ000-250500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0444
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CNTRL THROUGH S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104...

VALID 250355Z - 250500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST
OVER DEEP S TX THROUGH 05Z...BUT THREAT ACROSS REMAINDER OF WW 104
HAS DIMINISHED AND NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS RESULTED IN A
SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN SURFACE BASED STORMS OVER ALL EXCEPT FOR
DEEP S TX WHERE A STRONG/SEVERE STORM IS MOVING INTO SRN HIDALGO
COUNTY. THIS STORM WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL OVER SRN HIDALGO AND POSSIBLY INTO CAMERON COUNTY. THE 00Z
BROWNSVILLE RAOB SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL CAP...BUT CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIGHT BE STRONG AND DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN THE STORM ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF DEEP S TX.
OTHERWISE...NUMEROUS ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REST OF SOUTH AND SCNTRL TX...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BASED
AOA 700 MB AND WILL NOT LIKELY POSE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

LAT...LON   26219846 26499764 25949735 26219846






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250220
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-250315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0443
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0920 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NRN LA...EXTREME SRN AR AND WCNTRL MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 100...103...

VALID 250220Z - 250315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 100...103...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 103 WILL BE REPLACED BY A NEW TORNADO WATCH
PRIOR TO 0345Z THAT WILL INCLUDE NERN TX...EXTREME SRN AR...NRN LA
AND WCNTRL MS.

DISCUSSION...MCS REMAINS ORGANIZED ACROSS NERN TX AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EWD THROUGH SRN AR...NRN LA AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN MS
LATER TONIGHT. FORWARD PROPAGATION MAINTAINED BY A 50 KT SLY LLJ
SHOULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION. THOUGH THE DOMINANT MODE HAS TRANSITIONED TO LINEAR...A RISK
FOR QLCS TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE. VWP FROM SHREVEPORT SHOWS AN
IMPRESSIVE WIND PROFILE WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND
400 M2/S2 ALONG WITH 70 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT CAN ROOT IN THE NEAR SFC
LAYER WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33329387 33469230 33299057 32529047 32069100 31909221
            31819339 31799462 32489458 33329387





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250220
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-250315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0443
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0920 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NRN LA...EXTREME SRN AR AND WCNTRL MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 100...103...

VALID 250220Z - 250315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 100...103...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 103 WILL BE REPLACED BY A NEW TORNADO WATCH
PRIOR TO 0345Z THAT WILL INCLUDE NERN TX...EXTREME SRN AR...NRN LA
AND WCNTRL MS.

DISCUSSION...MCS REMAINS ORGANIZED ACROSS NERN TX AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EWD THROUGH SRN AR...NRN LA AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN MS
LATER TONIGHT. FORWARD PROPAGATION MAINTAINED BY A 50 KT SLY LLJ
SHOULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION. THOUGH THE DOMINANT MODE HAS TRANSITIONED TO LINEAR...A RISK
FOR QLCS TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE. VWP FROM SHREVEPORT SHOWS AN
IMPRESSIVE WIND PROFILE WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND
400 M2/S2 ALONG WITH 70 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT CAN ROOT IN THE NEAR SFC
LAYER WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33329387 33469230 33299057 32529047 32069100 31909221
            31819339 31799462 32489458 33329387






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250220
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-250315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0443
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0920 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NRN LA...EXTREME SRN AR AND WCNTRL MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 100...103...

VALID 250220Z - 250315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 100...103...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 103 WILL BE REPLACED BY A NEW TORNADO WATCH
PRIOR TO 0345Z THAT WILL INCLUDE NERN TX...EXTREME SRN AR...NRN LA
AND WCNTRL MS.

DISCUSSION...MCS REMAINS ORGANIZED ACROSS NERN TX AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EWD THROUGH SRN AR...NRN LA AND EVENTUALLY INTO WRN MS
LATER TONIGHT. FORWARD PROPAGATION MAINTAINED BY A 50 KT SLY LLJ
SHOULD SUSTAIN ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION. THOUGH THE DOMINANT MODE HAS TRANSITIONED TO LINEAR...A RISK
FOR QLCS TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE. VWP FROM SHREVEPORT SHOWS AN
IMPRESSIVE WIND PROFILE WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND
400 M2/S2 ALONG WITH 70 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. TORNADOES ALSO REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT CAN ROOT IN THE NEAR SFC
LAYER WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33329387 33469230 33299057 32529047 32069100 31909221
            31819339 31799462 32489458 33329387





000
ACUS01 KWNS 250156
SWODY1
SPC AC 250154

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0854 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SOUTHERN ENH
RISK AREA....SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
EASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE NORTHERN ENH
RISK AREA...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
AREAS...

CORRECTED OUTLOOK GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS...ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...SUMMARY...
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING ONGOING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED IN SCATTERED AREAS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND LIKELY WILL PERSIST ANOTHER
SEVERAL HOURS WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD.

...NORTHERN TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS...IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTENT...AT LEAST MODERATELY LARGE CAPE...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.  ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED BENEATH THE STRONGLY DIFLUENT REGIME
BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL CAPPING
ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD DOWNSTREAM SUBTROPICAL RIDGING.  THIS APPEARS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...ALONG WHICH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES WITH
MESOVORTICES WITHIN THE EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SEEM TO
EXIST.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITHIN A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

...CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS...
FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE POLAR JET HAS SUPPORTED INCREASING
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MOSTLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...JUST
EAST OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MIGRATING FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  MORE
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW /COMPARED TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ HAS MITIGATED THE
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL APPEARS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...GIVEN THE
FORCING AND VERTICAL SHEAR...FOR A CONTINUING SEVERE RISK THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR...WEST OF SALINA...TOWARD THE KANSAS CITY AREA.  THIS MAY
INCLUDE AN INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO
A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO MID/LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...
INTENSE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
SPREADING ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN
TEXAS...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE CAPE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BEFORE PERHAPS BECOMING SUPPRESSED BY INCREASING INHIBITION
AND WEAKENING MID/UPPER SUPPORT.

..KERR.. 04/25/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 250156
SWODY1
SPC AC 250154

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0854 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SOUTHERN ENH
RISK AREA....SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
EASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE NORTHERN ENH
RISK AREA...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
AREAS...

CORRECTED OUTLOOK GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS...ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...SUMMARY...
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING ONGOING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED IN SCATTERED AREAS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND LIKELY WILL PERSIST ANOTHER
SEVERAL HOURS WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD.

...NORTHERN TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS...IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTENT...AT LEAST MODERATELY LARGE CAPE...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.  ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED BENEATH THE STRONGLY DIFLUENT REGIME
BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL CAPPING
ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD DOWNSTREAM SUBTROPICAL RIDGING.  THIS APPEARS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...ALONG WHICH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES WITH
MESOVORTICES WITHIN THE EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SEEM TO
EXIST.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITHIN A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

...CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS...
FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE POLAR JET HAS SUPPORTED INCREASING
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MOSTLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...JUST
EAST OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MIGRATING FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  MORE
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW /COMPARED TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ HAS MITIGATED THE
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL APPEARS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...GIVEN THE
FORCING AND VERTICAL SHEAR...FOR A CONTINUING SEVERE RISK THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR...WEST OF SALINA...TOWARD THE KANSAS CITY AREA.  THIS MAY
INCLUDE AN INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO
A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO MID/LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...
INTENSE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
SPREADING ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN
TEXAS...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE CAPE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BEFORE PERHAPS BECOMING SUPPRESSED BY INCREASING INHIBITION
AND WEAKENING MID/UPPER SUPPORT.

..KERR.. 04/25/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 250156
SWODY1
SPC AC 250154

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0854 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SOUTHERN ENH
RISK AREA....SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
EASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE NORTHERN ENH
RISK AREA...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
AREAS...

CORRECTED OUTLOOK GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS...ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...SUMMARY...
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING ONGOING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED IN SCATTERED AREAS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND LIKELY WILL PERSIST ANOTHER
SEVERAL HOURS WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD.

...NORTHERN TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS...IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTENT...AT LEAST MODERATELY LARGE CAPE...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.  ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED BENEATH THE STRONGLY DIFLUENT REGIME
BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL CAPPING
ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD DOWNSTREAM SUBTROPICAL RIDGING.  THIS APPEARS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...ALONG WHICH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES WITH
MESOVORTICES WITHIN THE EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SEEM TO
EXIST.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITHIN A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

...CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS...
FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE POLAR JET HAS SUPPORTED INCREASING
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MOSTLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...JUST
EAST OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MIGRATING FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  MORE
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW /COMPARED TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ HAS MITIGATED THE
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL APPEARS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...GIVEN THE
FORCING AND VERTICAL SHEAR...FOR A CONTINUING SEVERE RISK THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR...WEST OF SALINA...TOWARD THE KANSAS CITY AREA.  THIS MAY
INCLUDE AN INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO
A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO MID/LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...
INTENSE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
SPREADING ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN
TEXAS...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE CAPE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BEFORE PERHAPS BECOMING SUPPRESSED BY INCREASING INHIBITION
AND WEAKENING MID/UPPER SUPPORT.

..KERR.. 04/25/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 250156
SWODY1
SPC AC 250154

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0854 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SOUTHERN ENH
RISK AREA....SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
EASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE NORTHERN ENH
RISK AREA...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
AREAS...

CORRECTED OUTLOOK GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS...ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...SUMMARY...
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING ONGOING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED IN SCATTERED AREAS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND LIKELY WILL PERSIST ANOTHER
SEVERAL HOURS WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD.

...NORTHERN TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS...IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTENT...AT LEAST MODERATELY LARGE CAPE...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.  ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED BENEATH THE STRONGLY DIFLUENT REGIME
BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL CAPPING
ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD DOWNSTREAM SUBTROPICAL RIDGING.  THIS APPEARS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...ALONG WHICH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES WITH
MESOVORTICES WITHIN THE EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SEEM TO
EXIST.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITHIN A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

...CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS...
FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE POLAR JET HAS SUPPORTED INCREASING
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MOSTLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...JUST
EAST OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MIGRATING FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  MORE
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW /COMPARED TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ HAS MITIGATED THE
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL APPEARS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...GIVEN THE
FORCING AND VERTICAL SHEAR...FOR A CONTINUING SEVERE RISK THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR...WEST OF SALINA...TOWARD THE KANSAS CITY AREA.  THIS MAY
INCLUDE AN INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO
A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO MID/LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...
INTENSE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
SPREADING ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN
TEXAS...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE CAPE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BEFORE PERHAPS BECOMING SUPPRESSED BY INCREASING INHIBITION
AND WEAKENING MID/UPPER SUPPORT.

..KERR.. 04/25/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 250126
SWODY1
SPC AC 250124

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0824 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SOUTHERN ENH
RISK AREA....SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
EASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE NORTHERN ENH
RISK AREA...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
AREAS...

CORRECTED FOR POSITION OF LABELS ON OUTLOOK GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS...ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...SUMMARY...
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING ONGOING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED IN SCATTERED AREAS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND LIKELY WILL PERSIST ANOTHER
SEVERAL HOURS WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD.

...NORTHERN TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS...IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTENT...AT LEAST MODERATELY LARGE CAPE...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.  ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED BENEATH THE STRONGLY DIFLUENT REGIME
BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL CAPPING
ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD DOWNSTREAM SUBTROPICAL RIDGING.  THIS APPEARS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...ALONG WHICH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES WITH
MESOVORTICES WITHIN THE EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SEEM TO
EXIST.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITHIN A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

...CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS...
FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE POLAR JET HAS SUPPORTED INCREASING
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MOSTLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...JUST
EAST OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MIGRATING FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  MORE
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW /COMPARED TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ HAS MITIGATED THE
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL APPEARS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...GIVEN THE
FORCING AND VERTICAL SHEAR...FOR A CONTINUING SEVERE RISK THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR...WEST OF SALINA...TOWARD THE KANSAS CITY AREA.  THIS MAY
INCLUDE AN INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO
A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO MID/LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...
INTENSE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
SPREADING ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN
TEXAS...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE CAPE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BEFORE PERHAPS BECOMING SUPPRESSED BY INCREASING INHIBITION
AND WEAKENING MID/UPPER SUPPORT.

..KERR.. 04/25/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 250126
SWODY1
SPC AC 250124

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0824 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SOUTHERN ENH
RISK AREA....SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
EASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE NORTHERN ENH
RISK AREA...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
AREAS...

CORRECTED FOR POSITION OF LABELS ON OUTLOOK GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS...ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...SUMMARY...
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING ONGOING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED IN SCATTERED AREAS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND LIKELY WILL PERSIST ANOTHER
SEVERAL HOURS WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD.

...NORTHERN TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS...IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTENT...AT LEAST MODERATELY LARGE CAPE...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.  ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED BENEATH THE STRONGLY DIFLUENT REGIME
BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL CAPPING
ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD DOWNSTREAM SUBTROPICAL RIDGING.  THIS APPEARS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...ALONG WHICH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES WITH
MESOVORTICES WITHIN THE EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SEEM TO
EXIST.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITHIN A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

...CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS...
FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE POLAR JET HAS SUPPORTED INCREASING
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MOSTLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...JUST
EAST OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MIGRATING FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  MORE
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW /COMPARED TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ HAS MITIGATED THE
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL APPEARS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...GIVEN THE
FORCING AND VERTICAL SHEAR...FOR A CONTINUING SEVERE RISK THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR...WEST OF SALINA...TOWARD THE KANSAS CITY AREA.  THIS MAY
INCLUDE AN INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO
A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO MID/LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...
INTENSE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
SPREADING ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN
TEXAS...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE CAPE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BEFORE PERHAPS BECOMING SUPPRESSED BY INCREASING INHIBITION
AND WEAKENING MID/UPPER SUPPORT.

..KERR.. 04/25/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 250101
SWODY1
SPC AC 250059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SOUTHERN ENH
RISK AREA....SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
EASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE NORTHERN ENH
RISK AREA...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
AREAS...

...SUMMARY...
THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS...ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...SUMMARY...
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING ONGOING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED IN SCATTERED AREAS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND LIKELY WILL PERSIST ANOTHER
SEVERAL HOURS WHILE SPREADING EASTWARD.

...NORTHERN TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS...IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTENT...AT LEAST MODERATELY LARGE CAPE...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.  ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED BENEATH THE STRONGLY DIFLUENT REGIME
BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL CAPPING
ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD DOWNSTREAM SUBTROPICAL RIDGING.  THIS APPEARS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT WITH A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...ALONG WHICH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES WITH
MESOVORTICES WITHIN THE EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SEEM TO
EXIST.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITHIN A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

...CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS...
FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE POLAR JET HAS SUPPORTED INCREASING
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MOSTLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...JUST
EAST OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MIGRATING FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  MORE
LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW /COMPARED TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ HAS MITIGATED THE
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL APPEARS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...GIVEN THE
FORCING AND VERTICAL SHEAR...FOR A CONTINUING SEVERE RISK THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EVENING HOURS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR...WEST OF SALINA...TOWARD THE KANSAS CITY AREA.  THIS MAY
INCLUDE AN INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO
A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO MID/LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...
INTENSE DISCRETE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
SPREADING ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN
TEXAS...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE CAPE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT LEAST
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BEFORE PERHAPS BECOMING SUPPRESSED BY INCREASING INHIBITION
AND WEAKENING MID/UPPER SUPPORT.

..KERR.. 04/25/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250046
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-250215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0442
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL THROUGH NERN TX...NRN LA AND EXTREME SWRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 100...103...

VALID 250046Z - 250215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 100...103...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL PERSIST OVER REMAINING PARTS OF WW 100 AND 103. GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NERN TX...SWRN AR AND NWRN LA THROUGH 03Z.

DISCUSSION...STORMS JUST EAST OF DFW METRO AREA HAVE EVOLVED INTO AN
ORGANIZED MCS WITH BOWING STRUCTURES AND IS MOVING EAST BETWEEN
45-50 KT. DOWNSTREAM VWP DATA FROM SHREVEPORT LA INDICATE IMPRESSIVE
WIND PROFILES WITH LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS AND 60+ KT 0-6 KM SHEAR.
EAST OF THE BOWING SEGMENT...POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR DISCRETE
CELLS TO ORGANIZE WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT FROM NERN TX INTO NRN LA AND
SRN AR. THESE STORMS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITHIN THE MORE LINEAR SEGMENT...BUT QLCS TORNADOES WITH OCCASIONAL
EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES ALSO REMAIN PROBABLE. OTHERWISE...A TORNADO
RISK WILL CONTINUE WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT CAN ANCHOR WITHIN
THE NEAR-SFC LAYER.

..DIAL.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   32409704 33109698 33489544 33629362 33249242 32329213
            31109359 31449481 31579603 31319730 30659956 30879999
            31319950 32409704





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250046
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-250215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0442
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL THROUGH NERN TX...NRN LA AND EXTREME SWRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 100...103...

VALID 250046Z - 250215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 100...103...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL PERSIST OVER REMAINING PARTS OF WW 100 AND 103. GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NERN TX...SWRN AR AND NWRN LA THROUGH 03Z.

DISCUSSION...STORMS JUST EAST OF DFW METRO AREA HAVE EVOLVED INTO AN
ORGANIZED MCS WITH BOWING STRUCTURES AND IS MOVING EAST BETWEEN
45-50 KT. DOWNSTREAM VWP DATA FROM SHREVEPORT LA INDICATE IMPRESSIVE
WIND PROFILES WITH LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS AND 60+ KT 0-6 KM SHEAR.
EAST OF THE BOWING SEGMENT...POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR DISCRETE
CELLS TO ORGANIZE WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT FROM NERN TX INTO NRN LA AND
SRN AR. THESE STORMS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITHIN THE MORE LINEAR SEGMENT...BUT QLCS TORNADOES WITH OCCASIONAL
EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES ALSO REMAIN PROBABLE. OTHERWISE...A TORNADO
RISK WILL CONTINUE WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT CAN ANCHOR WITHIN
THE NEAR-SFC LAYER.

..DIAL.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   32409704 33109698 33489544 33629362 33249242 32329213
            31109359 31449481 31579603 31319730 30659956 30879999
            31319950 32409704






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250046
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-250215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0442
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL THROUGH NERN TX...NRN LA AND EXTREME SWRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 100...103...

VALID 250046Z - 250215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 100...103...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL PERSIST OVER REMAINING PARTS OF WW 100 AND 103. GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NERN TX...SWRN AR AND NWRN LA THROUGH 03Z.

DISCUSSION...STORMS JUST EAST OF DFW METRO AREA HAVE EVOLVED INTO AN
ORGANIZED MCS WITH BOWING STRUCTURES AND IS MOVING EAST BETWEEN
45-50 KT. DOWNSTREAM VWP DATA FROM SHREVEPORT LA INDICATE IMPRESSIVE
WIND PROFILES WITH LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS AND 60+ KT 0-6 KM SHEAR.
EAST OF THE BOWING SEGMENT...POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR DISCRETE
CELLS TO ORGANIZE WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT FROM NERN TX INTO NRN LA AND
SRN AR. THESE STORMS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITHIN THE MORE LINEAR SEGMENT...BUT QLCS TORNADOES WITH OCCASIONAL
EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES ALSO REMAIN PROBABLE. OTHERWISE...A TORNADO
RISK WILL CONTINUE WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT CAN ANCHOR WITHIN
THE NEAR-SFC LAYER.

..DIAL.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   32409704 33109698 33489544 33629362 33249242 32329213
            31109359 31449481 31579603 31319730 30659956 30879999
            31319950 32409704





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250021
KSZ000-250115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0441
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 102...

VALID 250021Z - 250115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 102 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE GREATEST OVER N-CNTRL KS THROUGH 02Z. SVR
THREAT OVER WRN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 102 SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE WITH CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND THE LOSS OF HEATING.

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CNTRL/WRN
KS...FEATURING A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WIND GUSTS THAT REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG A WARM FRONT BETWEEN RUSSELL
AND SALINA. SFC ANALYSIS FROM 00Z INDICATES MOIST AXIS IS ORIENTED
NEAR/E OF I-35...WITH A SFC LOW POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 20 SW
RSL...WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS WELL...BUT
AN INCREASINGLY MESSY STORM MODE OWING TO NUMEROUS STORM
INTERACTIONS MAY LIMIT THIS THREAT.

..ROGERS.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38259969 38300117 38790134 39220066 39959970 39919817
            39539719 38689675 37339715 37079777 37169860 37879930
            38259969





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250021
KSZ000-250115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0441
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 102...

VALID 250021Z - 250115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 102 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE GREATEST OVER N-CNTRL KS THROUGH 02Z. SVR
THREAT OVER WRN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 102 SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE WITH CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND THE LOSS OF HEATING.

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CNTRL/WRN
KS...FEATURING A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WIND GUSTS THAT REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG A WARM FRONT BETWEEN RUSSELL
AND SALINA. SFC ANALYSIS FROM 00Z INDICATES MOIST AXIS IS ORIENTED
NEAR/E OF I-35...WITH A SFC LOW POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 20 SW
RSL...WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS WELL...BUT
AN INCREASINGLY MESSY STORM MODE OWING TO NUMEROUS STORM
INTERACTIONS MAY LIMIT THIS THREAT.

..ROGERS.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38259969 38300117 38790134 39220066 39959970 39919817
            39539719 38689675 37339715 37079777 37169860 37879930
            38259969






000
ACUS11 KWNS 250022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250021
KSZ000-250115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0441
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 102...

VALID 250021Z - 250115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 102 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE GREATEST OVER N-CNTRL KS THROUGH 02Z. SVR
THREAT OVER WRN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 102 SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE WITH CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND THE LOSS OF HEATING.

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CNTRL/WRN
KS...FEATURING A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WIND GUSTS THAT REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG A WARM FRONT BETWEEN RUSSELL
AND SALINA. SFC ANALYSIS FROM 00Z INDICATES MOIST AXIS IS ORIENTED
NEAR/E OF I-35...WITH A SFC LOW POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 20 SW
RSL...WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS WELL...BUT
AN INCREASINGLY MESSY STORM MODE OWING TO NUMEROUS STORM
INTERACTIONS MAY LIMIT THIS THREAT.

..ROGERS.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38259969 38300117 38790134 39220066 39959970 39919817
            39539719 38689675 37339715 37079777 37169860 37879930
            38259969





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250021
KSZ000-250115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0441
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 102...

VALID 250021Z - 250115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 102 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE GREATEST OVER N-CNTRL KS THROUGH 02Z. SVR
THREAT OVER WRN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 102 SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE WITH CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND THE LOSS OF HEATING.

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CNTRL/WRN
KS...FEATURING A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WIND GUSTS THAT REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG A WARM FRONT BETWEEN RUSSELL
AND SALINA. SFC ANALYSIS FROM 00Z INDICATES MOIST AXIS IS ORIENTED
NEAR/E OF I-35...WITH A SFC LOW POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 20 SW
RSL...WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS WELL...BUT
AN INCREASINGLY MESSY STORM MODE OWING TO NUMEROUS STORM
INTERACTIONS MAY LIMIT THIS THREAT.

..ROGERS.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38259969 38300117 38790134 39220066 39959970 39919817
            39539719 38689675 37339715 37079777 37169860 37879930
            38259969





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250021
KSZ000-250115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0441
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 102...

VALID 250021Z - 250115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 102 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE GREATEST OVER N-CNTRL KS THROUGH 02Z. SVR
THREAT OVER WRN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 102 SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE WITH CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND THE LOSS OF HEATING.

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CNTRL/WRN
KS...FEATURING A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WIND GUSTS THAT REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG A WARM FRONT BETWEEN RUSSELL
AND SALINA. SFC ANALYSIS FROM 00Z INDICATES MOIST AXIS IS ORIENTED
NEAR/E OF I-35...WITH A SFC LOW POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 20 SW
RSL...WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS WELL...BUT
AN INCREASINGLY MESSY STORM MODE OWING TO NUMEROUS STORM
INTERACTIONS MAY LIMIT THIS THREAT.

..ROGERS.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38259969 38300117 38790134 39220066 39959970 39919817
            39539719 38689675 37339715 37079777 37169860 37879930
            38259969





000
ACUS11 KWNS 250022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250021
KSZ000-250115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0441
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN/CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 102...

VALID 250021Z - 250115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 102 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE GREATEST OVER N-CNTRL KS THROUGH 02Z. SVR
THREAT OVER WRN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH 102 SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE WITH CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND THE LOSS OF HEATING.

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CNTRL/WRN
KS...FEATURING A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
WIND GUSTS THAT REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG A WARM FRONT BETWEEN RUSSELL
AND SALINA. SFC ANALYSIS FROM 00Z INDICATES MOIST AXIS IS ORIENTED
NEAR/E OF I-35...WITH A SFC LOW POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 20 SW
RSL...WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MOST FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HRS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS WELL...BUT
AN INCREASINGLY MESSY STORM MODE OWING TO NUMEROUS STORM
INTERACTIONS MAY LIMIT THIS THREAT.

..ROGERS.. 04/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38259969 38300117 38790134 39220066 39959970 39919817
            39539719 38689675 37339715 37079777 37169860 37879930
            38259969






000
ACUS11 KWNS 242301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242301
TXZ000-250000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0440
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 100...

VALID 242301Z - 250000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 100 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ENHANCED DMGG WIND THREAT WILL AFFECT SRN PORTIONS OF
THE DFW METROPLEX 23-00Z.

DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED BOWING CLUSTER WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS WAS RAPIDLY ADVANCING ENEWD ACROSS
ERATH...HOOD...AND SOMERVELL COUNTIES AT AROUND 50 KT. ESTIMATED
GUSTS OF 70-80 MPH WERE REPORTED WITH THIS CLUSTER...AND DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THIS THREAT TO PERSIST SHORT-TERM.
SRN PORTIONS OF THE DFW METROPLEX...INCLUDING JOHNSON...ELLIS...AND
PERHAPS SRN TARRANT AND DALLAS COUNTIES...COULD SEE AN ENHANCED DMGG
WIND THREAT THROUGH 00Z. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

..ROGERS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

LAT...LON   32139659 32009806 32399837 32709813 32859743 33019676
            32999632 32589620 32139659






000
ACUS11 KWNS 242301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242301
TXZ000-250000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0440
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 100...

VALID 242301Z - 250000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 100 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ENHANCED DMGG WIND THREAT WILL AFFECT SRN PORTIONS OF
THE DFW METROPLEX 23-00Z.

DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED BOWING CLUSTER WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS WAS RAPIDLY ADVANCING ENEWD ACROSS
ERATH...HOOD...AND SOMERVELL COUNTIES AT AROUND 50 KT. ESTIMATED
GUSTS OF 70-80 MPH WERE REPORTED WITH THIS CLUSTER...AND DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THIS THREAT TO PERSIST SHORT-TERM.
SRN PORTIONS OF THE DFW METROPLEX...INCLUDING JOHNSON...ELLIS...AND
PERHAPS SRN TARRANT AND DALLAS COUNTIES...COULD SEE AN ENHANCED DMGG
WIND THREAT THROUGH 00Z. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

..ROGERS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

LAT...LON   32139659 32009806 32399837 32709813 32859743 33019676
            32999632 32589620 32139659





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242301
TXZ000-250000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0440
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 100...

VALID 242301Z - 250000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 100 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ENHANCED DMGG WIND THREAT WILL AFFECT SRN PORTIONS OF
THE DFW METROPLEX 23-00Z.

DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED BOWING CLUSTER WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS WAS RAPIDLY ADVANCING ENEWD ACROSS
ERATH...HOOD...AND SOMERVELL COUNTIES AT AROUND 50 KT. ESTIMATED
GUSTS OF 70-80 MPH WERE REPORTED WITH THIS CLUSTER...AND DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THIS THREAT TO PERSIST SHORT-TERM.
SRN PORTIONS OF THE DFW METROPLEX...INCLUDING JOHNSON...ELLIS...AND
PERHAPS SRN TARRANT AND DALLAS COUNTIES...COULD SEE AN ENHANCED DMGG
WIND THREAT THROUGH 00Z. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

..ROGERS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

LAT...LON   32139659 32009806 32399837 32709813 32859743 33019676
            32999632 32589620 32139659





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242156
TXZ000-242330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242156Z - 242330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MX WILL
APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITHIN THE NEXT HR. PARTS OF S TX ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MX ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY /S OF DRT/ BY 23Z. STRONG
HEATING WITHIN A MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3500 J/KG...AND A WEAKENING CAP WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S F. 50 KT MIDLEVEL SWLYS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DMGG WIND GUSTS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...BUT VEERS WITH HEIGHT...SO
A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

THE MOST FAVORABLE ZONE FOR SVR TSTMS IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE
DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING CONVECTION /ROUGHLY BETWEEN DRT AND LRD
AND AREAS TO THE E/. ADDITIONAL WEAKER CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
FARTHER S UPSTREAM FROM ZAPATA/WEBB COUNTIES...BUT WILL LIKELY BE AT
LEAST 2 HRS BEFORE THESE AREAS ARE AFFECTED. SPATIAL COVERAGE OF
TSTMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
OROGRAPHIC FORCING BEING PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...TRENDS
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..ROGERS/DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   29520118 29730078 29769944 29469862 28559828 26159834
            26269873 26439907 26899936 27069944 27559949 27729979
            28340033 28930063 29150077 29520118





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242156
TXZ000-242330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242156Z - 242330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MX WILL
APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITHIN THE NEXT HR. PARTS OF S TX ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MX ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY /S OF DRT/ BY 23Z. STRONG
HEATING WITHIN A MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3500 J/KG...AND A WEAKENING CAP WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S F. 50 KT MIDLEVEL SWLYS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DMGG WIND GUSTS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...BUT VEERS WITH HEIGHT...SO
A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

THE MOST FAVORABLE ZONE FOR SVR TSTMS IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE
DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING CONVECTION /ROUGHLY BETWEEN DRT AND LRD
AND AREAS TO THE E/. ADDITIONAL WEAKER CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
FARTHER S UPSTREAM FROM ZAPATA/WEBB COUNTIES...BUT WILL LIKELY BE AT
LEAST 2 HRS BEFORE THESE AREAS ARE AFFECTED. SPATIAL COVERAGE OF
TSTMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
OROGRAPHIC FORCING BEING PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...TRENDS
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..ROGERS/DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   29520118 29730078 29769944 29469862 28559828 26159834
            26269873 26439907 26899936 27069944 27559949 27729979
            28340033 28930063 29150077 29520118





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242156
TXZ000-242330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242156Z - 242330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MX WILL
APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITHIN THE NEXT HR. PARTS OF S TX ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MX ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY /S OF DRT/ BY 23Z. STRONG
HEATING WITHIN A MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3500 J/KG...AND A WEAKENING CAP WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S F. 50 KT MIDLEVEL SWLYS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DMGG WIND GUSTS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...BUT VEERS WITH HEIGHT...SO
A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

THE MOST FAVORABLE ZONE FOR SVR TSTMS IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE
DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING CONVECTION /ROUGHLY BETWEEN DRT AND LRD
AND AREAS TO THE E/. ADDITIONAL WEAKER CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
FARTHER S UPSTREAM FROM ZAPATA/WEBB COUNTIES...BUT WILL LIKELY BE AT
LEAST 2 HRS BEFORE THESE AREAS ARE AFFECTED. SPATIAL COVERAGE OF
TSTMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
OROGRAPHIC FORCING BEING PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...TRENDS
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..ROGERS/DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   29520118 29730078 29769944 29469862 28559828 26159834
            26269873 26439907 26899936 27069944 27559949 27729979
            28340033 28930063 29150077 29520118





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242156
TXZ000-242330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242156Z - 242330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MX WILL
APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITHIN THE NEXT HR. PARTS OF S TX ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MX ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY /S OF DRT/ BY 23Z. STRONG
HEATING WITHIN A MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3500 J/KG...AND A WEAKENING CAP WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S F. 50 KT MIDLEVEL SWLYS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DMGG WIND GUSTS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...BUT VEERS WITH HEIGHT...SO
A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

THE MOST FAVORABLE ZONE FOR SVR TSTMS IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE
DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING CONVECTION /ROUGHLY BETWEEN DRT AND LRD
AND AREAS TO THE E/. ADDITIONAL WEAKER CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
FARTHER S UPSTREAM FROM ZAPATA/WEBB COUNTIES...BUT WILL LIKELY BE AT
LEAST 2 HRS BEFORE THESE AREAS ARE AFFECTED. SPATIAL COVERAGE OF
TSTMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
OROGRAPHIC FORCING BEING PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...TRENDS
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..ROGERS/DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   29520118 29730078 29769944 29469862 28559828 26159834
            26269873 26439907 26899936 27069944 27559949 27729979
            28340033 28930063 29150077 29520118






000
ACUS11 KWNS 242157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242156
TXZ000-242330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242156Z - 242330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MX WILL
APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITHIN THE NEXT HR. PARTS OF S TX ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN MX ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY /S OF DRT/ BY 23Z. STRONG
HEATING WITHIN A MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3500 J/KG...AND A WEAKENING CAP WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S F. 50 KT MIDLEVEL SWLYS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DMGG WIND GUSTS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...BUT VEERS WITH HEIGHT...SO
A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

THE MOST FAVORABLE ZONE FOR SVR TSTMS IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE
DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING CONVECTION /ROUGHLY BETWEEN DRT AND LRD
AND AREAS TO THE E/. ADDITIONAL WEAKER CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
FARTHER S UPSTREAM FROM ZAPATA/WEBB COUNTIES...BUT WILL LIKELY BE AT
LEAST 2 HRS BEFORE THESE AREAS ARE AFFECTED. SPATIAL COVERAGE OF
TSTMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN
OROGRAPHIC FORCING BEING PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...TRENDS
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..ROGERS/DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   29520118 29730078 29769944 29469862 28559828 26159834
            26269873 26439907 26899936 27069944 27559949 27729979
            28340033 28930063 29150077 29520118






000
ACUS11 KWNS 242059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242058
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-242230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX / NRN LA / FAR SRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 242058Z - 242230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING.  ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE AND A WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...RECENT MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
STORMS OVER NERN TX INTO NWRN LA INVOF A WARM FRONT-OUTFLOW
COMPOSITE BOUNDARY WHICH IS MOVING NWD THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING WAA
REGIME OCCURRING ALONG A LLJ WHICH WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY TO 40-50
KT IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION.

WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY POOR...THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL
MORPHOLOGIES WITH A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

..MEAD/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   31989517 32399537 32659532 33349480 33479399 33329267
            33079167 32619126 32179136 31699189 31499299 30449523
            30819638 31989517





000
ACUS11 KWNS 242059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242058
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-242230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX / NRN LA / FAR SRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 242058Z - 242230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING.  ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE AND A WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...RECENT MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
STORMS OVER NERN TX INTO NWRN LA INVOF A WARM FRONT-OUTFLOW
COMPOSITE BOUNDARY WHICH IS MOVING NWD THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING WAA
REGIME OCCURRING ALONG A LLJ WHICH WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY TO 40-50
KT IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION.

WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY POOR...THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL
MORPHOLOGIES WITH A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

..MEAD/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   31989517 32399537 32659532 33349480 33479399 33329267
            33079167 32619126 32179136 31699189 31499299 30449523
            30819638 31989517






000
ACUS11 KWNS 242059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242058
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-242230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX / NRN LA / FAR SRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 242058Z - 242230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING.  ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE AND A WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...RECENT MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
STORMS OVER NERN TX INTO NWRN LA INVOF A WARM FRONT-OUTFLOW
COMPOSITE BOUNDARY WHICH IS MOVING NWD THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING WAA
REGIME OCCURRING ALONG A LLJ WHICH WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY TO 40-50
KT IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION.

WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY POOR...THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL
MORPHOLOGIES WITH A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

..MEAD/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   31989517 32399537 32659532 33349480 33479399 33329267
            33079167 32619126 32179136 31699189 31499299 30449523
            30819638 31989517





000
ACUS01 KWNS 242003
SWODY1
SPC AC 242001

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR CNTRL KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF KS AND PARTS OF
CNTRL AND WRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM W-CNTRL TX EWD INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
STATES AND CNTRL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM
TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES. A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA.

A FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXISTING OUTLOOK AND ARE
DESCRIBED BELOW.  OTHERWISE THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

1. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INVOF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY HAVE IMPEDED GREATER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  DUE TO EXISTING CONVECTION ACTING TO REINFORCE
THE EFFECTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS N-CNTRL
TX...HAVE REDUCED SEVERE PROBABILITIES N OF THIS REGION OVER
PORTIONS OF SRN OK NEWD INTO NWRN AR AND AREAS DOWNSTREAM.
2. BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...HAVE INCLUDED ADDITIONAL AREAS OF NWRN KS INTO SLIGHT
RISK AND ENHANCED RISK CATEGORIES.  STEEP TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL PROBABLY PROVE ADEQUATE AS STORMS DEVELOP
AND MOVE INTO THE MOIST AXIS.  LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT TO AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.

..SMITH.. 04/24/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

...TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO REMAINS COMPLICATED BY ONGOING SCATTERED
TSTMS...ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF WHICH
WERE MOST EVIDENT IN 12Z CRP/BRO RAOBS. THESE RENDER TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER UPGRADING SEVERE TSTM PROBABILITIES.

THE GREATEST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RISK WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE WHERE A
POCKET OF STRONGER INSOLATION IS APPARENT ACROSS N-CNTRL TO E-CNTRL
TX. THIS SHOULD YIELD MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT
MAX/CIRCULATION CENTER SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NM...ONGOING ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX BIG COUNTRY SHOULD INTENSIFY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THEY BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN THE DESTABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER.

WITH 60 TO 70 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE NM VORT MAX
CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS TX...THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE IS
EXPECTED...WITH LIKELY TENDENCY FOR SUPERCELLS IN SOME AREAS TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS. THUS...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH TORNADOES
WHERE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED /A COUPLE OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG/.

ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP S ALONG THE
DRYLINE AS IT MIXES E ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER RELATIVE TO FARTHER NE...VERY STRONG DEEP SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH RISKS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL..SEVERE WINDS
AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.

GIVEN STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING UPR TROUGH...AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL PROBABLY CONSOLIDATE INTO
A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE QLCS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BOWS AND LEWPS POSING
A CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

...KS AREA...
A POCKET OF MORE ROBUST SURFACE HEATING IS BECOMING APPARENT ACROSS
WRN KS TO THE W OF THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND THICKER CIRRUS PLUMES.
MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z DDC RAOB SUGGESTS A  FAVORABLE SUPERCELL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. BUT THE SURFACE LOW WILL
REMAIN RATHER LOOSELY-ORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE STRONGEST
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION. COUPLED WITH
MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STORMS OVER N
TX...STORM COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED MAINLY TO CNTRL KS.
HERE...A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH ALL SEVERE MODES
POSSIBLE.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 242003
SWODY1
SPC AC 242001

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR CNTRL KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF KS AND PARTS OF
CNTRL AND WRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM W-CNTRL TX EWD INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
STATES AND CNTRL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM
TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES. A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA.

A FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXISTING OUTLOOK AND ARE
DESCRIBED BELOW.  OTHERWISE THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

1. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INVOF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY HAVE IMPEDED GREATER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  DUE TO EXISTING CONVECTION ACTING TO REINFORCE
THE EFFECTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS N-CNTRL
TX...HAVE REDUCED SEVERE PROBABILITIES N OF THIS REGION OVER
PORTIONS OF SRN OK NEWD INTO NWRN AR AND AREAS DOWNSTREAM.
2. BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...HAVE INCLUDED ADDITIONAL AREAS OF NWRN KS INTO SLIGHT
RISK AND ENHANCED RISK CATEGORIES.  STEEP TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL PROBABLY PROVE ADEQUATE AS STORMS DEVELOP
AND MOVE INTO THE MOIST AXIS.  LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT TO AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.

..SMITH.. 04/24/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

...TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO REMAINS COMPLICATED BY ONGOING SCATTERED
TSTMS...ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF WHICH
WERE MOST EVIDENT IN 12Z CRP/BRO RAOBS. THESE RENDER TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER UPGRADING SEVERE TSTM PROBABILITIES.

THE GREATEST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RISK WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE WHERE A
POCKET OF STRONGER INSOLATION IS APPARENT ACROSS N-CNTRL TO E-CNTRL
TX. THIS SHOULD YIELD MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT
MAX/CIRCULATION CENTER SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NM...ONGOING ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX BIG COUNTRY SHOULD INTENSIFY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THEY BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN THE DESTABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER.

WITH 60 TO 70 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE NM VORT MAX
CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS TX...THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE IS
EXPECTED...WITH LIKELY TENDENCY FOR SUPERCELLS IN SOME AREAS TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS. THUS...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH TORNADOES
WHERE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED /A COUPLE OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG/.

ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP S ALONG THE
DRYLINE AS IT MIXES E ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER RELATIVE TO FARTHER NE...VERY STRONG DEEP SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH RISKS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL..SEVERE WINDS
AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.

GIVEN STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING UPR TROUGH...AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL PROBABLY CONSOLIDATE INTO
A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE QLCS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BOWS AND LEWPS POSING
A CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

...KS AREA...
A POCKET OF MORE ROBUST SURFACE HEATING IS BECOMING APPARENT ACROSS
WRN KS TO THE W OF THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND THICKER CIRRUS PLUMES.
MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z DDC RAOB SUGGESTS A  FAVORABLE SUPERCELL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. BUT THE SURFACE LOW WILL
REMAIN RATHER LOOSELY-ORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE STRONGEST
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION. COUPLED WITH
MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STORMS OVER N
TX...STORM COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED MAINLY TO CNTRL KS.
HERE...A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH ALL SEVERE MODES
POSSIBLE.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 242003
SWODY1
SPC AC 242001

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR CNTRL KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF KS AND PARTS OF
CNTRL AND WRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM W-CNTRL TX EWD INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
STATES AND CNTRL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM
TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES. A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA.

A FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXISTING OUTLOOK AND ARE
DESCRIBED BELOW.  OTHERWISE THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

1. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS INVOF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY HAVE IMPEDED GREATER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  DUE TO EXISTING CONVECTION ACTING TO REINFORCE
THE EFFECTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS N-CNTRL
TX...HAVE REDUCED SEVERE PROBABILITIES N OF THIS REGION OVER
PORTIONS OF SRN OK NEWD INTO NWRN AR AND AREAS DOWNSTREAM.
2. BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...HAVE INCLUDED ADDITIONAL AREAS OF NWRN KS INTO SLIGHT
RISK AND ENHANCED RISK CATEGORIES.  STEEP TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL PROBABLY PROVE ADEQUATE AS STORMS DEVELOP
AND MOVE INTO THE MOIST AXIS.  LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT TO AMBIENT LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.

..SMITH.. 04/24/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

...TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO REMAINS COMPLICATED BY ONGOING SCATTERED
TSTMS...ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF WHICH
WERE MOST EVIDENT IN 12Z CRP/BRO RAOBS. THESE RENDER TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER UPGRADING SEVERE TSTM PROBABILITIES.

THE GREATEST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RISK WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE WHERE A
POCKET OF STRONGER INSOLATION IS APPARENT ACROSS N-CNTRL TO E-CNTRL
TX. THIS SHOULD YIELD MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT
MAX/CIRCULATION CENTER SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NM...ONGOING ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX BIG COUNTRY SHOULD INTENSIFY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THEY BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN THE DESTABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER.

WITH 60 TO 70 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE NM VORT MAX
CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS TX...THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE IS
EXPECTED...WITH LIKELY TENDENCY FOR SUPERCELLS IN SOME AREAS TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS. THUS...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH TORNADOES
WHERE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED /A COUPLE OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG/.

ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP S ALONG THE
DRYLINE AS IT MIXES E ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER RELATIVE TO FARTHER NE...VERY STRONG DEEP SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH RISKS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL..SEVERE WINDS
AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.

GIVEN STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING UPR TROUGH...AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL PROBABLY CONSOLIDATE INTO
A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE QLCS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BOWS AND LEWPS POSING
A CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

...KS AREA...
A POCKET OF MORE ROBUST SURFACE HEATING IS BECOMING APPARENT ACROSS
WRN KS TO THE W OF THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND THICKER CIRRUS PLUMES.
MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z DDC RAOB SUGGESTS A  FAVORABLE SUPERCELL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. BUT THE SURFACE LOW WILL
REMAIN RATHER LOOSELY-ORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE STRONGEST
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION. COUPLED WITH
MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STORMS OVER N
TX...STORM COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED MAINLY TO CNTRL KS.
HERE...A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH ALL SEVERE MODES
POSSIBLE.






000
ACUS11 KWNS 241915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241914
KSZ000-242045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0437
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241914Z - 242045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KS THROUGH 21Z. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ANY REMAINING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION EVIDENT ON THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM DODGE CITY SHOULD BE
LARGELY REMOVED. BROAD ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING NEWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL ENCOURAGE INITIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE/SWRN KS AND
EVENTUALLY EXTENDING INTO CNTRL KS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS SWRN KS TO LOWER 60S
FOR S-CNTRL KS ALONG WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM
ARE PROMOTING MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG. A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH
HEIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES
WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. A SUB-998 MB SFC LOW
ANALYZED OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS WRN KS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS CNTRL KS SHOULD
BACK SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SFC LOW. THIS MAY
ENLARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL KS...AND
INCREASE THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME.

..GLEASON/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39549937 39459847 39369809 39189779 38669795 37889831
            37539843 37239859 37079933 37209977 37819998 38320050
            38670128 38970189 39340172 39430118 39510000 39549937





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241914
KSZ000-242045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0437
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241914Z - 242045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KS THROUGH 21Z. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ANY REMAINING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION EVIDENT ON THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM DODGE CITY SHOULD BE
LARGELY REMOVED. BROAD ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING NEWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL ENCOURAGE INITIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE/SWRN KS AND
EVENTUALLY EXTENDING INTO CNTRL KS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS SWRN KS TO LOWER 60S
FOR S-CNTRL KS ALONG WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM
ARE PROMOTING MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG. A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH
HEIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES
WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. A SUB-998 MB SFC LOW
ANALYZED OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS WRN KS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS CNTRL KS SHOULD
BACK SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SFC LOW. THIS MAY
ENLARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL KS...AND
INCREASE THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME.

..GLEASON/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39549937 39459847 39369809 39189779 38669795 37889831
            37539843 37239859 37079933 37209977 37819998 38320050
            38670128 38970189 39340172 39430118 39510000 39549937






000
ACUS11 KWNS 241915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241914
KSZ000-242045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0437
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241914Z - 242045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KS THROUGH 21Z. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ANY REMAINING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION EVIDENT ON THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM DODGE CITY SHOULD BE
LARGELY REMOVED. BROAD ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING NEWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL ENCOURAGE INITIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE/SWRN KS AND
EVENTUALLY EXTENDING INTO CNTRL KS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS SWRN KS TO LOWER 60S
FOR S-CNTRL KS ALONG WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM
ARE PROMOTING MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG. A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH
HEIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES
WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. A SUB-998 MB SFC LOW
ANALYZED OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS WRN KS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS CNTRL KS SHOULD
BACK SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SFC LOW. THIS MAY
ENLARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL KS...AND
INCREASE THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME.

..GLEASON/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39549937 39459847 39369809 39189779 38669795 37889831
            37539843 37239859 37079933 37209977 37819998 38320050
            38670128 38970189 39340172 39430118 39510000 39549937





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241858
LAZ000-242030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 99...

VALID 241858Z - 242030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 99 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE -- AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADO -- RISK CONTINUES
ACROSS SRN LA.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE IN
ORGANIZATION/ROTATION WITH THE STORM MOVING OUT OF ALLEN AND
JEFFERSON DAVIS AND INTO EVANGELINE/ACADIA PARISHES ATTM.  WITH THAT
SAID HOWEVER...THE STORM REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL AS IT CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY EWD.

IN ADDITION...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORM
REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE CONVECTION -- AIDED BY FAVORABLE SHEAR
WHICH PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA.  WHILE CURRENT SEVERE RISK REMAINS
WELL-CONTAINED WITHIN THE CURRENT WATCH...DOWNSTREAM WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY SHOULD CONVECTION PERSIST/INCREASE WITH TIME.

..GOSS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29789278 29829344 30199347 30379273 30689248 30549139
            30589011 29778989 28829025 29789278





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241858
LAZ000-242030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 99...

VALID 241858Z - 242030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 99 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE -- AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADO -- RISK CONTINUES
ACROSS SRN LA.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE IN
ORGANIZATION/ROTATION WITH THE STORM MOVING OUT OF ALLEN AND
JEFFERSON DAVIS AND INTO EVANGELINE/ACADIA PARISHES ATTM.  WITH THAT
SAID HOWEVER...THE STORM REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL AS IT CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY EWD.

IN ADDITION...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORM
REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE CONVECTION -- AIDED BY FAVORABLE SHEAR
WHICH PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA.  WHILE CURRENT SEVERE RISK REMAINS
WELL-CONTAINED WITHIN THE CURRENT WATCH...DOWNSTREAM WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY SHOULD CONVECTION PERSIST/INCREASE WITH TIME.

..GOSS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29789278 29829344 30199347 30379273 30689248 30549139
            30589011 29778989 28829025 29789278





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241858
LAZ000-242030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 99...

VALID 241858Z - 242030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 99 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE -- AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADO -- RISK CONTINUES
ACROSS SRN LA.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECREASE IN
ORGANIZATION/ROTATION WITH THE STORM MOVING OUT OF ALLEN AND
JEFFERSON DAVIS AND INTO EVANGELINE/ACADIA PARISHES ATTM.  WITH THAT
SAID HOWEVER...THE STORM REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL AS IT CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY EWD.

IN ADDITION...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORM
REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE CONVECTION -- AIDED BY FAVORABLE SHEAR
WHICH PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA.  WHILE CURRENT SEVERE RISK REMAINS
WELL-CONTAINED WITHIN THE CURRENT WATCH...DOWNSTREAM WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY SHOULD CONVECTION PERSIST/INCREASE WITH TIME.

..GOSS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29789278 29829344 30199347 30379273 30689248 30549139
            30589011 29778989 28829025 29789278






000
ACUS11 KWNS 241756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241756
OKZ000-TXZ000-241930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...A PORTION OF THE SERN TX PANHANDLE...FAR WRN N
TX... AND SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241756Z - 241930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST MAY
POSE SOME RISK FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.

DISCUSSION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SPEED
MAXIMUM...SHALLOW LINEAR CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG AN
EWD MIXING DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS QUICKLY MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...WITH MUCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 500 J/KG FROM
THE LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
THE PROMOTION OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO THE SFC VIA CONVECTIVE
MIXING/DOWNDRAFTS. THIS MAY RESULT IN STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK/FAR WRN N TX.
IF THIS LINE IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO S-CNTRL OK...IT WOULD
ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT GIVEN PRIOR
CONVECTION THAT HAS LARGELY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH ONLY
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS EXPECTED...A WW IS
UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.

..GLEASON/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33500127 33900138 34560088 35170019 35469945 35469883
            35019871 34189951 33550039 33500127





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241756
OKZ000-TXZ000-241930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...A PORTION OF THE SERN TX PANHANDLE...FAR WRN N
TX... AND SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241756Z - 241930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST MAY
POSE SOME RISK FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.

DISCUSSION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SPEED
MAXIMUM...SHALLOW LINEAR CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG AN
EWD MIXING DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS QUICKLY MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...WITH MUCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 500 J/KG FROM
THE LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
THE PROMOTION OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO THE SFC VIA CONVECTIVE
MIXING/DOWNDRAFTS. THIS MAY RESULT IN STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK/FAR WRN N TX.
IF THIS LINE IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO S-CNTRL OK...IT WOULD
ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT GIVEN PRIOR
CONVECTION THAT HAS LARGELY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH ONLY
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS EXPECTED...A WW IS
UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.

..GLEASON/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33500127 33900138 34560088 35170019 35469945 35469883
            35019871 34189951 33550039 33500127





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241756
OKZ000-TXZ000-241930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...A PORTION OF THE SERN TX PANHANDLE...FAR WRN N
TX... AND SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241756Z - 241930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST MAY
POSE SOME RISK FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.

DISCUSSION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SPEED
MAXIMUM...SHALLOW LINEAR CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG AN
EWD MIXING DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS QUICKLY MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...WITH MUCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 500 J/KG FROM
THE LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
THE PROMOTION OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO THE SFC VIA CONVECTIVE
MIXING/DOWNDRAFTS. THIS MAY RESULT IN STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK/FAR WRN N TX.
IF THIS LINE IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO S-CNTRL OK...IT WOULD
ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT GIVEN PRIOR
CONVECTION THAT HAS LARGELY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH ONLY
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS EXPECTED...A WW IS
UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.

..GLEASON/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33500127 33900138 34560088 35170019 35469945 35469883
            35019871 34189951 33550039 33500127





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241756
OKZ000-TXZ000-241930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...A PORTION OF THE SERN TX PANHANDLE...FAR WRN N
TX... AND SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241756Z - 241930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST MAY
POSE SOME RISK FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.

DISCUSSION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SPEED
MAXIMUM...SHALLOW LINEAR CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG AN
EWD MIXING DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS QUICKLY MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...WITH MUCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 500 J/KG FROM
THE LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
THE PROMOTION OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO THE SFC VIA CONVECTIVE
MIXING/DOWNDRAFTS. THIS MAY RESULT IN STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK/FAR WRN N TX.
IF THIS LINE IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO S-CNTRL OK...IT WOULD
ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT GIVEN PRIOR
CONVECTION THAT HAS LARGELY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH ONLY
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS EXPECTED...A WW IS
UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.

..GLEASON/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33500127 33900138 34560088 35170019 35469945 35469883
            35019871 34189951 33550039 33500127






000
ACUS11 KWNS 241756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241756
OKZ000-TXZ000-241930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...A PORTION OF THE SERN TX PANHANDLE...FAR WRN N
TX... AND SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241756Z - 241930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST MAY
POSE SOME RISK FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.

DISCUSSION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SPEED
MAXIMUM...SHALLOW LINEAR CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG AN
EWD MIXING DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS QUICKLY MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...WITH MUCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 500 J/KG FROM
THE LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
THE PROMOTION OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO THE SFC VIA CONVECTIVE
MIXING/DOWNDRAFTS. THIS MAY RESULT IN STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK/FAR WRN N TX.
IF THIS LINE IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO S-CNTRL OK...IT WOULD
ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT GIVEN PRIOR
CONVECTION THAT HAS LARGELY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH ONLY
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS EXPECTED...A WW IS
UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.

..GLEASON/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33500127 33900138 34560088 35170019 35469945 35469883
            35019871 34189951 33550039 33500127





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241756
OKZ000-TXZ000-241930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...A PORTION OF THE SERN TX PANHANDLE...FAR WRN N
TX... AND SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241756Z - 241930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST MAY
POSE SOME RISK FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.

DISCUSSION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SPEED
MAXIMUM...SHALLOW LINEAR CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG AN
EWD MIXING DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS QUICKLY MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...WITH MUCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 500 J/KG FROM
THE LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
THE PROMOTION OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO THE SFC VIA CONVECTIVE
MIXING/DOWNDRAFTS. THIS MAY RESULT IN STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK/FAR WRN N TX.
IF THIS LINE IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO S-CNTRL OK...IT WOULD
ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT GIVEN PRIOR
CONVECTION THAT HAS LARGELY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH ONLY
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS EXPECTED...A WW IS
UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.

..GLEASON/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33500127 33900138 34560088 35170019 35469945 35469883
            35019871 34189951 33550039 33500127






000
ACUS02 KWNS 241727
SWODY2
SPC AC 241726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AND UPPER TN VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SEWD
INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO
VALLEY AND THE GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.  VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  THE
SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST REGIONS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL WAVE INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO
DEAMPLIFY AND REACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM AR INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS DURING THE PERIOD WITH 60-90 M HEIGHT FALLS FOCUSED
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY ADVANCE NWD REACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY AND
A LOWER MO VALLEY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ESEWD REACHING THE LOWER
OH VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON.  POSSIBLE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT
INVOF THE SRN APPALACHIANS MAY ALSO SERVE TO CONCENTRATE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

...MID MS INTO THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEY...
A LOW LEVEL JET STREAM /40-50 KT/ WILL ACT TO TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE NNEWD INTO THE REGION BY THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD.
RESIDUAL OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS OWING TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LIKELY SPREAD E ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY DURING THE MORNING.  MODELS SHOW A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT IN WAKE OF THE EARLY DAY ACTIVITY WITH SOME CLEARING AND
HEATING EXPECTED.  MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MID 60S DEWPOINTS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA S OF THE WARM FRONT AND CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY /1000-3000 J PER KG SBCAPE/.  COUPLED
WITH STRONG AND DEEP WLY MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW /50-70 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR/...SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE THE PREFERRED STORM MODE AND POSE
A RISK FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS.  RELATIVELY
BACKED NEAR-SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL ENLARGE
HODOGRAPHS AND POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR SUPERCELL
TORNADOES --A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG-- WITH ANY ROBUST STORM
TRACKING INVOF THE BOUNDARY.  HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME...WILL REASSESS AND DEFER PROBABILISTIC/CATEGORICAL TIER
ADJUSTMENTS TO LATER OUTLOOKS.

FARTHER S INTO THE WARM SECTOR...NEGLIGIBLE CONVERGENCE IN PART DUE
TO VEERED SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO CONSIDERABLY
LOWER TSTM PROBABILITIES AS THE BULK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS
CONCENTRATED IN THE OH VALLEY.  ADDITIONALLY...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
AND ENLARGING OF SURFACE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY LESSEN THE
TORNADO RISK WITH ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

...SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS...
LARGELY COINCIDENT WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF FORECAST OVERNIGHT
DAY 1 THUNDERSTORMS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS AL/GA DURING THE
MORNING...THE EWD EXTENSION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH
NRN GA INTO SC DURING THE DAY.  STRONG HEATING AND INCREASED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/
WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY DEVELOPING BY PEAK
HEATING AND THE WEAKENING OF THE CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL
VEERING WINDS BENEATH INCREASING TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL
STRONGLY FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO
DEVELOP AND AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT.  ALTHOUGH THE CONDITIONAL
PARAMETER-SPACE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
HAZARDS...THE MAIN FACTOR PRECLUDING HIGHER PROBABILITIES ATTM
INVOLVES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

...GULF COAST STATES...
A MARITIME AIRMASS FEATURING UPPER 60S AND 70S DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
PLACE BENEATH STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL
FORCING MECHANISM FOR DIURNAL STORM INITIATION AND THIS REGION BEING
LARGELY REMOVED FROM MID-LEVEL WAVE DISPLACED TO THE N...CASTS
CONSIDERABLE DOUBT IN MORE THAN A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING.
NONETHELESS...STRONG SHEAR/INSTABILITY WOULD ENABLE STORMS TO
ACQUIRE CHARACTERISTICS SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLD STRONG/SEVERE THREAT
AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES THIS FORECAST.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 04/24/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 241727
SWODY2
SPC AC 241726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AND UPPER TN VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SEWD
INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO
VALLEY AND THE GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.  VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  THE
SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST REGIONS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL WAVE INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO
DEAMPLIFY AND REACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM AR INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS DURING THE PERIOD WITH 60-90 M HEIGHT FALLS FOCUSED
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY ADVANCE NWD REACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY AND
A LOWER MO VALLEY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ESEWD REACHING THE LOWER
OH VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON.  POSSIBLE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT
INVOF THE SRN APPALACHIANS MAY ALSO SERVE TO CONCENTRATE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

...MID MS INTO THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEY...
A LOW LEVEL JET STREAM /40-50 KT/ WILL ACT TO TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE NNEWD INTO THE REGION BY THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD.
RESIDUAL OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS OWING TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LIKELY SPREAD E ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY DURING THE MORNING.  MODELS SHOW A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT IN WAKE OF THE EARLY DAY ACTIVITY WITH SOME CLEARING AND
HEATING EXPECTED.  MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MID 60S DEWPOINTS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA S OF THE WARM FRONT AND CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY /1000-3000 J PER KG SBCAPE/.  COUPLED
WITH STRONG AND DEEP WLY MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW /50-70 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR/...SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE THE PREFERRED STORM MODE AND POSE
A RISK FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS.  RELATIVELY
BACKED NEAR-SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL ENLARGE
HODOGRAPHS AND POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR SUPERCELL
TORNADOES --A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG-- WITH ANY ROBUST STORM
TRACKING INVOF THE BOUNDARY.  HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME...WILL REASSESS AND DEFER PROBABILISTIC/CATEGORICAL TIER
ADJUSTMENTS TO LATER OUTLOOKS.

FARTHER S INTO THE WARM SECTOR...NEGLIGIBLE CONVERGENCE IN PART DUE
TO VEERED SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO CONSIDERABLY
LOWER TSTM PROBABILITIES AS THE BULK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS
CONCENTRATED IN THE OH VALLEY.  ADDITIONALLY...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
AND ENLARGING OF SURFACE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY LESSEN THE
TORNADO RISK WITH ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

...SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS...
LARGELY COINCIDENT WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF FORECAST OVERNIGHT
DAY 1 THUNDERSTORMS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS AL/GA DURING THE
MORNING...THE EWD EXTENSION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH
NRN GA INTO SC DURING THE DAY.  STRONG HEATING AND INCREASED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/
WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY DEVELOPING BY PEAK
HEATING AND THE WEAKENING OF THE CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL
VEERING WINDS BENEATH INCREASING TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL
STRONGLY FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO
DEVELOP AND AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT.  ALTHOUGH THE CONDITIONAL
PARAMETER-SPACE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
HAZARDS...THE MAIN FACTOR PRECLUDING HIGHER PROBABILITIES ATTM
INVOLVES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

...GULF COAST STATES...
A MARITIME AIRMASS FEATURING UPPER 60S AND 70S DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
PLACE BENEATH STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL
FORCING MECHANISM FOR DIURNAL STORM INITIATION AND THIS REGION BEING
LARGELY REMOVED FROM MID-LEVEL WAVE DISPLACED TO THE N...CASTS
CONSIDERABLE DOUBT IN MORE THAN A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING.
NONETHELESS...STRONG SHEAR/INSTABILITY WOULD ENABLE STORMS TO
ACQUIRE CHARACTERISTICS SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLD STRONG/SEVERE THREAT
AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES THIS FORECAST.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 04/24/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 241727
SWODY2
SPC AC 241726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AND UPPER TN VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SEWD
INTO GA AND THE CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO
VALLEY AND THE GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.  VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  THE
SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST REGIONS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL WAVE INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO
DEAMPLIFY AND REACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM AR INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS DURING THE PERIOD WITH 60-90 M HEIGHT FALLS FOCUSED
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  A WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY ADVANCE NWD REACHING THE LOWER OH VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY AND
A LOWER MO VALLEY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ESEWD REACHING THE LOWER
OH VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON.  POSSIBLE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT
INVOF THE SRN APPALACHIANS MAY ALSO SERVE TO CONCENTRATE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.

...MID MS INTO THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEY...
A LOW LEVEL JET STREAM /40-50 KT/ WILL ACT TO TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE NNEWD INTO THE REGION BY THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD.
RESIDUAL OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS OWING TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL LIKELY SPREAD E ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY DURING THE MORNING.  MODELS SHOW A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT IN WAKE OF THE EARLY DAY ACTIVITY WITH SOME CLEARING AND
HEATING EXPECTED.  MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MID 60S DEWPOINTS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA S OF THE WARM FRONT AND CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY /1000-3000 J PER KG SBCAPE/.  COUPLED
WITH STRONG AND DEEP WLY MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW /50-70 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR/...SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY BE THE PREFERRED STORM MODE AND POSE
A RISK FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS.  RELATIVELY
BACKED NEAR-SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL ENLARGE
HODOGRAPHS AND POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR SUPERCELL
TORNADOES --A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG-- WITH ANY ROBUST STORM
TRACKING INVOF THE BOUNDARY.  HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME...WILL REASSESS AND DEFER PROBABILISTIC/CATEGORICAL TIER
ADJUSTMENTS TO LATER OUTLOOKS.

FARTHER S INTO THE WARM SECTOR...NEGLIGIBLE CONVERGENCE IN PART DUE
TO VEERED SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO CONSIDERABLY
LOWER TSTM PROBABILITIES AS THE BULK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS
CONCENTRATED IN THE OH VALLEY.  ADDITIONALLY...BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
AND ENLARGING OF SURFACE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY LESSEN THE
TORNADO RISK WITH ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

...SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS...
LARGELY COINCIDENT WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF FORECAST OVERNIGHT
DAY 1 THUNDERSTORMS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS AL/GA DURING THE
MORNING...THE EWD EXTENSION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH
NRN GA INTO SC DURING THE DAY.  STRONG HEATING AND INCREASED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/
WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY DEVELOPING BY PEAK
HEATING AND THE WEAKENING OF THE CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL
VEERING WINDS BENEATH INCREASING TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL
STRONGLY FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO
DEVELOP AND AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT.  ALTHOUGH THE CONDITIONAL
PARAMETER-SPACE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
HAZARDS...THE MAIN FACTOR PRECLUDING HIGHER PROBABILITIES ATTM
INVOLVES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

...GULF COAST STATES...
A MARITIME AIRMASS FEATURING UPPER 60S AND 70S DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
PLACE BENEATH STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE LACK OF A LOW-LEVEL
FORCING MECHANISM FOR DIURNAL STORM INITIATION AND THIS REGION BEING
LARGELY REMOVED FROM MID-LEVEL WAVE DISPLACED TO THE N...CASTS
CONSIDERABLE DOUBT IN MORE THAN A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING.
NONETHELESS...STRONG SHEAR/INSTABILITY WOULD ENABLE STORMS TO
ACQUIRE CHARACTERISTICS SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLD STRONG/SEVERE THREAT
AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES THIS FORECAST.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 04/24/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241653
LAZ000-TXZ000-241830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0434
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN TX/SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241653Z - 241830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...GRADUALLY INCREASING STORMS/SEVERE RISK EVIDENT ACROSS THE
SABINE RIVER VALLEY REGION AND EWD ACROSS SRN LA MAY REQUIRE WW
ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE TYR /TYLER TX/ VICINITY AND
APPROACHING THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE...AS MIXED-LAYER CAPE ACROSS THE GULF COAST HAS INCREASED
INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE.  SOME ORGANIZATION IS INDICATED
WITHIN THIS CLUSTER ATTM...AIDED BY FAVORABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS
ACROSS THE AREA.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS A BIT WEAK...SELY
SURFACE WINDS NEAR/N OF THE REMNANT FRONT LYING W-E ROUGHLY ALONG
THE GULF COAST MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE
LOCALLY AS CONVECTION GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES...WW MAY BE NEEDED IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29659387 29609444 30079470 30469443 30729407 31029321
            30559196 30309094 29179114 29659387






000
ACUS11 KWNS 241653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241653
LAZ000-TXZ000-241830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0434
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN TX/SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241653Z - 241830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...GRADUALLY INCREASING STORMS/SEVERE RISK EVIDENT ACROSS THE
SABINE RIVER VALLEY REGION AND EWD ACROSS SRN LA MAY REQUIRE WW
ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE TYR /TYLER TX/ VICINITY AND
APPROACHING THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE...AS MIXED-LAYER CAPE ACROSS THE GULF COAST HAS INCREASED
INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE.  SOME ORGANIZATION IS INDICATED
WITHIN THIS CLUSTER ATTM...AIDED BY FAVORABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS
ACROSS THE AREA.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS A BIT WEAK...SELY
SURFACE WINDS NEAR/N OF THE REMNANT FRONT LYING W-E ROUGHLY ALONG
THE GULF COAST MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE
LOCALLY AS CONVECTION GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES...WW MAY BE NEEDED IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29659387 29609444 30079470 30469443 30729407 31029321
            30559196 30309094 29179114 29659387





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241653
LAZ000-TXZ000-241830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0434
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN TX/SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241653Z - 241830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...GRADUALLY INCREASING STORMS/SEVERE RISK EVIDENT ACROSS THE
SABINE RIVER VALLEY REGION AND EWD ACROSS SRN LA MAY REQUIRE WW
ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE TYR /TYLER TX/ VICINITY AND
APPROACHING THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE...AS MIXED-LAYER CAPE ACROSS THE GULF COAST HAS INCREASED
INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE.  SOME ORGANIZATION IS INDICATED
WITHIN THIS CLUSTER ATTM...AIDED BY FAVORABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS
ACROSS THE AREA.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS A BIT WEAK...SELY
SURFACE WINDS NEAR/N OF THE REMNANT FRONT LYING W-E ROUGHLY ALONG
THE GULF COAST MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE
LOCALLY AS CONVECTION GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES...WW MAY BE NEEDED IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29659387 29609444 30079470 30469443 30729407 31029321
            30559196 30309094 29179114 29659387





000
ACUS01 KWNS 241634
SWODY1
SPC AC 241632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN GREAT PLAINS
TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM
TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES. A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA.

...TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO REMAINS COMPLICATED BY ONGOING SCATTERED
TSTMS...ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF WHICH
WERE MOST EVIDENT IN 12Z CRP/BRO RAOBS. THESE RENDER TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER UPGRADING SEVERE TSTM PROBABILITIES.

THE GREATEST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RISK WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE WHERE A
POCKET OF STRONGER INSOLATION IS APPARENT ACROSS N-CNTRL TO E-CNTRL
TX. THIS SHOULD YIELD MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT
MAX/CIRCULATION CENTER SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NM...ONGOING ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX BIG COUNTRY SHOULD INTENSIFY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THEY BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN THE DESTABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER.

WITH 60 TO 70 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE NM VORT MAX
CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS TX...THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE IS
EXPECTED...WITH LIKELY TENDENCY FOR SUPERCELLS IN SOME AREAS TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS. THUS...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH TORNADOES
WHERE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED /A COUPLE OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG/.

ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP S ALONG THE
DRYLINE AS IT MIXES E ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER RELATIVE TO FARTHER NE...VERY STRONG DEEP SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH RISKS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL..SEVERE WINDS
AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.

GIVEN STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING UPR TROUGH...AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL PROBABLY CONSOLIDATE INTO
A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE QLCS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BOWS AND LEWPS POSING
A CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

...KS AREA...
A POCKET OF MORE ROBUST SURFACE HEATING IS BECOMING APPARENT ACROSS
WRN KS TO THE W OF THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND THICKER CIRRUS PLUMES.
MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z DDC RAOB SUGGESTS A  FAVORABLE SUPERCELL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. BUT THE SURFACE LOW WILL
REMAIN RATHER LOOSELY-ORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE STRONGEST
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION. COUPLED WITH
MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STORMS OVER N
TX...STORM COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED MAINLY TO CNTRL KS.
HERE...A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH ALL SEVERE MODES
POSSIBLE.

..GRAMS/GLEASON.. 04/24/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 241634
SWODY1
SPC AC 241632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN GREAT PLAINS
TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM
TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES. A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA.

...TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO REMAINS COMPLICATED BY ONGOING SCATTERED
TSTMS...ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES...THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF WHICH
WERE MOST EVIDENT IN 12Z CRP/BRO RAOBS. THESE RENDER TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN FURTHER UPGRADING SEVERE TSTM PROBABILITIES.

THE GREATEST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RISK WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE WHERE A
POCKET OF STRONGER INSOLATION IS APPARENT ACROSS N-CNTRL TO E-CNTRL
TX. THIS SHOULD YIELD MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT
MAX/CIRCULATION CENTER SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NM...ONGOING ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX BIG COUNTRY SHOULD INTENSIFY IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THEY BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN THE DESTABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER.

WITH 60 TO 70 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE NM VORT MAX
CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS TX...THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE IS
EXPECTED...WITH LIKELY TENDENCY FOR SUPERCELLS IN SOME AREAS TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS. THUS...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH TORNADOES
WHERE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED /A COUPLE OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG/.

ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP S ALONG THE
DRYLINE AS IT MIXES E ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER RELATIVE TO FARTHER NE...VERY STRONG DEEP SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH RISKS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL..SEVERE WINDS
AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.

GIVEN STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING UPR TROUGH...AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL PROBABLY CONSOLIDATE INTO
A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE QLCS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BOWS AND LEWPS POSING
A CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

...KS AREA...
A POCKET OF MORE ROBUST SURFACE HEATING IS BECOMING APPARENT ACROSS
WRN KS TO THE W OF THE EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND THICKER CIRRUS PLUMES.
MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z DDC RAOB SUGGESTS A  FAVORABLE SUPERCELL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. BUT THE SURFACE LOW WILL
REMAIN RATHER LOOSELY-ORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE STRONGEST
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION. COUPLED WITH
MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STORMS OVER N
TX...STORM COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED MAINLY TO CNTRL KS.
HERE...A FEW SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY WITH ALL SEVERE MODES
POSSIBLE.

..GRAMS/GLEASON.. 04/24/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241613
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241612
TXZ000-OKZ000-241815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF TX FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY INTO
CENTRAL AND N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241612Z - 241815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS....ALONG AND S
OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND OVER NRN TX.  WW WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING ATTM ACROSS TX --
PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE DETAILS...AS WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITHIN A BAND FROM NEAR MAF ENEWD ACROSS N TX
AND INTO AR.  THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO LOCALLY HINDER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION..BUT CLEARING IS
EVIDENT ATTM ALONG SRN FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY SUPPORTING GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
TX.

RADAR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED STORMS NOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT MAX/CIRCULATION CENTER
SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NM ATTM PER LATEST WV IMAGERY.  AS THIS
LARGE-SCALE BACKGROUND ASCENT SPREADS EWD ATOP A GRADUALLY
DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
ROOTED IN THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TIME.

WITH 60 TO 70 KT SWLY FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE NM VORT MAX CONTINUING
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL RAMP-UP IN
SEVERE RISK AS STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED.  A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE
IS EXPECTED...WITH LIKELY TENDENCY FOR SUPERCELLS TO IN SOME AREAS
GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS.  THUS...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES
WHERE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED.

THOUGH TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SEVERE RISK IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF STILL-ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH AN EYE TOWARD EXPECTED WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31300105 31960110 33050017 33939698 33929603 33089545
            31899594 31399791 31170005 31300105





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241613
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241612
TXZ000-OKZ000-241815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF TX FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY INTO
CENTRAL AND N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241612Z - 241815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS....ALONG AND S
OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND OVER NRN TX.  WW WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING ATTM ACROSS TX --
PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE DETAILS...AS WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITHIN A BAND FROM NEAR MAF ENEWD ACROSS N TX
AND INTO AR.  THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO LOCALLY HINDER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION..BUT CLEARING IS
EVIDENT ATTM ALONG SRN FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY SUPPORTING GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
TX.

RADAR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED STORMS NOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT MAX/CIRCULATION CENTER
SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NM ATTM PER LATEST WV IMAGERY.  AS THIS
LARGE-SCALE BACKGROUND ASCENT SPREADS EWD ATOP A GRADUALLY
DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
ROOTED IN THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TIME.

WITH 60 TO 70 KT SWLY FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE NM VORT MAX CONTINUING
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL RAMP-UP IN
SEVERE RISK AS STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED.  A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE
IS EXPECTED...WITH LIKELY TENDENCY FOR SUPERCELLS TO IN SOME AREAS
GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS.  THUS...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES
WHERE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED.

THOUGH TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SEVERE RISK IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF STILL-ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH AN EYE TOWARD EXPECTED WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31300105 31960110 33050017 33939698 33929603 33089545
            31899594 31399791 31170005 31300105






000
ACUS11 KWNS 241613
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241612
TXZ000-OKZ000-241815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF TX FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY INTO
CENTRAL AND N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241612Z - 241815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS....ALONG AND S
OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND OVER NRN TX.  WW WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING ATTM ACROSS TX --
PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE DETAILS...AS WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITHIN A BAND FROM NEAR MAF ENEWD ACROSS N TX
AND INTO AR.  THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO LOCALLY HINDER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION..BUT CLEARING IS
EVIDENT ATTM ALONG SRN FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY SUPPORTING GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
TX.

RADAR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED STORMS NOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT MAX/CIRCULATION CENTER
SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NM ATTM PER LATEST WV IMAGERY.  AS THIS
LARGE-SCALE BACKGROUND ASCENT SPREADS EWD ATOP A GRADUALLY
DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
ROOTED IN THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TIME.

WITH 60 TO 70 KT SWLY FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE NM VORT MAX CONTINUING
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL RAMP-UP IN
SEVERE RISK AS STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED.  A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE
IS EXPECTED...WITH LIKELY TENDENCY FOR SUPERCELLS TO IN SOME AREAS
GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS.  THUS...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES
WHERE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED.

THOUGH TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SEVERE RISK IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF STILL-ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH AN EYE TOWARD EXPECTED WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31300105 31960110 33050017 33939698 33929603 33089545
            31899594 31399791 31170005 31300105





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241613
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241612
TXZ000-OKZ000-241815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF TX FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY INTO
CENTRAL AND N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241612Z - 241815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS....ALONG AND S
OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND OVER NRN TX.  WW WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING ATTM ACROSS TX --
PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE DETAILS...AS WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITHIN A BAND FROM NEAR MAF ENEWD ACROSS N TX
AND INTO AR.  THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO LOCALLY HINDER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION..BUT CLEARING IS
EVIDENT ATTM ALONG SRN FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY SUPPORTING GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
TX.

RADAR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED STORMS NOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT MAX/CIRCULATION CENTER
SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NM ATTM PER LATEST WV IMAGERY.  AS THIS
LARGE-SCALE BACKGROUND ASCENT SPREADS EWD ATOP A GRADUALLY
DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
ROOTED IN THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TIME.

WITH 60 TO 70 KT SWLY FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE NM VORT MAX CONTINUING
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL RAMP-UP IN
SEVERE RISK AS STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED.  A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE
IS EXPECTED...WITH LIKELY TENDENCY FOR SUPERCELLS TO IN SOME AREAS
GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS.  THUS...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES
WHERE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED.

THOUGH TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SEVERE RISK IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF STILL-ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH AN EYE TOWARD EXPECTED WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31300105 31960110 33050017 33939698 33929603 33089545
            31899594 31399791 31170005 31300105





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241613
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241612
TXZ000-OKZ000-241815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF TX FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY INTO
CENTRAL AND N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241612Z - 241815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS....ALONG AND S
OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND OVER NRN TX.  WW WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING ATTM ACROSS TX --
PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE DETAILS...AS WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITHIN A BAND FROM NEAR MAF ENEWD ACROSS N TX
AND INTO AR.  THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO LOCALLY HINDER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION..BUT CLEARING IS
EVIDENT ATTM ALONG SRN FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY SUPPORTING GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
TX.

RADAR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED STORMS NOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT MAX/CIRCULATION CENTER
SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NM ATTM PER LATEST WV IMAGERY.  AS THIS
LARGE-SCALE BACKGROUND ASCENT SPREADS EWD ATOP A GRADUALLY
DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
ROOTED IN THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TIME.

WITH 60 TO 70 KT SWLY FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE NM VORT MAX CONTINUING
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL RAMP-UP IN
SEVERE RISK AS STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED.  A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE
IS EXPECTED...WITH LIKELY TENDENCY FOR SUPERCELLS TO IN SOME AREAS
GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS.  THUS...LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES
WHERE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED.

THOUGH TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SEVERE RISK IS STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF STILL-ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH AN EYE TOWARD EXPECTED WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31300105 31960110 33050017 33939698 33929603 33089545
            31899594 31399791 31170005 31300105






000
ACUS11 KWNS 241530
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241529
LAZ000-TXZ000-241700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0432
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX/SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241529Z - 241700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORMS CROSSING SERN TX ATTM
APPEARS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SOME UPTICK IN MARGINAL HAIL/WIND
RISK.  RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED HOWEVER SUCH THAT WW IS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS EVIDENT ACROSS PARTS OF
SERN TX ATTM...ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.
THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODEST INCREASES IN STORM
INTENSITY...PARTICULARLY WITH A CELL OVER WRN LIVINGSTON CO. ATTM.
AS WEAK DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES LATE THIS AM WITHIN A KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...A STORM OR TWO MAY
REACH SEVERE LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM...AS CLOUD COVER/LIMITED DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM
SHOULD HINDER A MORE WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL RISK IN THE SHORT TERM.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29819468 29979517 30319530 30759471 30959316 30619259
            30199276 29819468





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241530
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241529
LAZ000-TXZ000-241700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0432
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX/SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241529Z - 241700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORMS CROSSING SERN TX ATTM
APPEARS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SOME UPTICK IN MARGINAL HAIL/WIND
RISK.  RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED HOWEVER SUCH THAT WW IS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS EVIDENT ACROSS PARTS OF
SERN TX ATTM...ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.
THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODEST INCREASES IN STORM
INTENSITY...PARTICULARLY WITH A CELL OVER WRN LIVINGSTON CO. ATTM.
AS WEAK DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES LATE THIS AM WITHIN A KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...A STORM OR TWO MAY
REACH SEVERE LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM...AS CLOUD COVER/LIMITED DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM
SHOULD HINDER A MORE WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL RISK IN THE SHORT TERM.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29819468 29979517 30319530 30759471 30959316 30619259
            30199276 29819468





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241530
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241529
LAZ000-TXZ000-241700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0432
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX/SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241529Z - 241700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORMS CROSSING SERN TX ATTM
APPEARS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SOME UPTICK IN MARGINAL HAIL/WIND
RISK.  RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED HOWEVER SUCH THAT WW IS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS EVIDENT ACROSS PARTS OF
SERN TX ATTM...ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.
THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODEST INCREASES IN STORM
INTENSITY...PARTICULARLY WITH A CELL OVER WRN LIVINGSTON CO. ATTM.
AS WEAK DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES LATE THIS AM WITHIN A KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...A STORM OR TWO MAY
REACH SEVERE LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM...AS CLOUD COVER/LIMITED DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM
SHOULD HINDER A MORE WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL RISK IN THE SHORT TERM.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29819468 29979517 30319530 30759471 30959316 30619259
            30199276 29819468






000
ACUS01 KWNS 241302
SWODY1
SPC AC 241300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX ENE INTO SRN
AR/NRN LA...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN
KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHD
AREA...FROM KS SSE TO THE WRN GULF CST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB SSE TO THE WRN AND
CNTRL GULF CST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BOTH AREAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL SOMEWHAT AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS
SRN BRANCH TROUGH NOW OVER N CNTRL MEX/SW NM CONTINUES NE TO THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE THIS EVE...AND INTO ERN KS EARLY SAT...WHILE UPSTREAM
NRN BRANCH TROUGH AMPLIFIES SE INTO CA. THE SHORTENING WAVELENGTH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN THE NM
DISTURBANCE AND YIELD A BELT OF ENHANCED WSWLY FLOW OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE PLNS LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT.

AT LWR LVLS...EXPECT A SFC LOW TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE OK PANHANDLE
BY THIS EVE...WITH THE LOW CONTINUING NE TO NEAR KANSAS CITY EARLY
SAT. IN RESPONSE...DIFFUSE WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING ROUGHLY WNW-ESE
ACROSS WRN OK/N TX AND SRN LA WILL ADVANCE N/NEWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ITS POLEWARD NWD MOTION WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY BE RETARDED
BY THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STORM CLUSTERS AND CLOUDS OVER ERN
PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS.

...SRN PLNS TO LWR MS VLY TODAY/TNGT...
SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO WILL BE COMPLICATED IN THIS REGION BY
OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT AND ONGOING STORM COMPLEXES...DIFFUSE NATURE
OF WARM FRONT...AND PRESENCE OF THICK MID/HIGH-LVL CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM
FROM NM UPR TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND
LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON SRN SIDE OF N TX CONVECTIVE
BAND...AND UPLIFT ALONG WARM FRONTAL SEGMENTS IN THE
VICINITY...SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO SVR STORMS BY MID TO LATE AFTN.  THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN
IN CNTRL TX...WHERE INTERSECTION OF EWD-ACCELERATING DRY LINE WILL
ASSIST IN LIFTING PARCELS TO THE LFC. STORMS MAY THEN FORM AND/OR
INTENSIFY A BIT LATER EWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX. GIVEN 50+ KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT...AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /PW
AOA 1.75 INCHES/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND SUPERCELL
COMPLEXES WITH A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND...AND
TORNADOES. GIVEN STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING UPR TROUGH...THE STORMS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE QLCS THIS EVE/TNGT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BOWS AND LEWPS POSING A CONTINUING SVR THREAT
EWD ACROSS SRN AR AND NRN/CNTRL LA INTO NRN/CNTRL MS EARLY SAT.

...CNTRL PLNS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
A SEPARATE SVR THREAT AREA LIKELY WILL EVOLVE OVER PARTS OF CNTRL
PLNS THIS AFTN AND EVE...WHERE SFC HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF THE
SRN BRANCH TROUGH WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION. SOME ASPECTS OF
THE SITUATION ARE CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG A ROUGHLY SW-NE DIAGONAL AXIS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN KS. BUT THE
SFC LOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSELY-ORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY...AND
THE STRONGEST MID-UPR LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION.  COUPLED
WITH THE PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF STORMS FARTHER S...AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...DEGREE
OF STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS UNCLEAR ATTM.
NEVERTHELESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF KS...POCKETS OF ENHANCED
BUOYANCY/CONVERGENCE LIKELY WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME STORMS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DMGG
WIND...INTO EARLY TNGT.

..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 04/24/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 241302
SWODY1
SPC AC 241300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX ENE INTO SRN
AR/NRN LA...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN
KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHD
AREA...FROM KS SSE TO THE WRN GULF CST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB SSE TO THE WRN AND
CNTRL GULF CST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BOTH AREAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL SOMEWHAT AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS
SRN BRANCH TROUGH NOW OVER N CNTRL MEX/SW NM CONTINUES NE TO THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE THIS EVE...AND INTO ERN KS EARLY SAT...WHILE UPSTREAM
NRN BRANCH TROUGH AMPLIFIES SE INTO CA. THE SHORTENING WAVELENGTH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN THE NM
DISTURBANCE AND YIELD A BELT OF ENHANCED WSWLY FLOW OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE PLNS LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT.

AT LWR LVLS...EXPECT A SFC LOW TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE OK PANHANDLE
BY THIS EVE...WITH THE LOW CONTINUING NE TO NEAR KANSAS CITY EARLY
SAT. IN RESPONSE...DIFFUSE WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING ROUGHLY WNW-ESE
ACROSS WRN OK/N TX AND SRN LA WILL ADVANCE N/NEWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ITS POLEWARD NWD MOTION WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY BE RETARDED
BY THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STORM CLUSTERS AND CLOUDS OVER ERN
PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS.

...SRN PLNS TO LWR MS VLY TODAY/TNGT...
SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO WILL BE COMPLICATED IN THIS REGION BY
OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT AND ONGOING STORM COMPLEXES...DIFFUSE NATURE
OF WARM FRONT...AND PRESENCE OF THICK MID/HIGH-LVL CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM
FROM NM UPR TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND
LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON SRN SIDE OF N TX CONVECTIVE
BAND...AND UPLIFT ALONG WARM FRONTAL SEGMENTS IN THE
VICINITY...SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO SVR STORMS BY MID TO LATE AFTN.  THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN
IN CNTRL TX...WHERE INTERSECTION OF EWD-ACCELERATING DRY LINE WILL
ASSIST IN LIFTING PARCELS TO THE LFC. STORMS MAY THEN FORM AND/OR
INTENSIFY A BIT LATER EWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX. GIVEN 50+ KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT...AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /PW
AOA 1.75 INCHES/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND SUPERCELL
COMPLEXES WITH A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND...AND
TORNADOES. GIVEN STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING UPR TROUGH...THE STORMS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE QLCS THIS EVE/TNGT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BOWS AND LEWPS POSING A CONTINUING SVR THREAT
EWD ACROSS SRN AR AND NRN/CNTRL LA INTO NRN/CNTRL MS EARLY SAT.

...CNTRL PLNS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
A SEPARATE SVR THREAT AREA LIKELY WILL EVOLVE OVER PARTS OF CNTRL
PLNS THIS AFTN AND EVE...WHERE SFC HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF THE
SRN BRANCH TROUGH WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION. SOME ASPECTS OF
THE SITUATION ARE CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG A ROUGHLY SW-NE DIAGONAL AXIS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN KS. BUT THE
SFC LOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSELY-ORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY...AND
THE STRONGEST MID-UPR LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION.  COUPLED
WITH THE PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF STORMS FARTHER S...AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...DEGREE
OF STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS UNCLEAR ATTM.
NEVERTHELESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF KS...POCKETS OF ENHANCED
BUOYANCY/CONVERGENCE LIKELY WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME STORMS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DMGG
WIND...INTO EARLY TNGT.

..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 04/24/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 241302
SWODY1
SPC AC 241300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX ENE INTO SRN
AR/NRN LA...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN
KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHD
AREA...FROM KS SSE TO THE WRN GULF CST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB SSE TO THE WRN AND
CNTRL GULF CST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BOTH AREAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL SOMEWHAT AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS
SRN BRANCH TROUGH NOW OVER N CNTRL MEX/SW NM CONTINUES NE TO THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE THIS EVE...AND INTO ERN KS EARLY SAT...WHILE UPSTREAM
NRN BRANCH TROUGH AMPLIFIES SE INTO CA. THE SHORTENING WAVELENGTH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN THE NM
DISTURBANCE AND YIELD A BELT OF ENHANCED WSWLY FLOW OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE PLNS LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT.

AT LWR LVLS...EXPECT A SFC LOW TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE OK PANHANDLE
BY THIS EVE...WITH THE LOW CONTINUING NE TO NEAR KANSAS CITY EARLY
SAT. IN RESPONSE...DIFFUSE WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING ROUGHLY WNW-ESE
ACROSS WRN OK/N TX AND SRN LA WILL ADVANCE N/NEWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ITS POLEWARD NWD MOTION WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY BE RETARDED
BY THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STORM CLUSTERS AND CLOUDS OVER ERN
PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS.

...SRN PLNS TO LWR MS VLY TODAY/TNGT...
SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO WILL BE COMPLICATED IN THIS REGION BY
OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT AND ONGOING STORM COMPLEXES...DIFFUSE NATURE
OF WARM FRONT...AND PRESENCE OF THICK MID/HIGH-LVL CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM
FROM NM UPR TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND
LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON SRN SIDE OF N TX CONVECTIVE
BAND...AND UPLIFT ALONG WARM FRONTAL SEGMENTS IN THE
VICINITY...SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO SVR STORMS BY MID TO LATE AFTN.  THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN
IN CNTRL TX...WHERE INTERSECTION OF EWD-ACCELERATING DRY LINE WILL
ASSIST IN LIFTING PARCELS TO THE LFC. STORMS MAY THEN FORM AND/OR
INTENSIFY A BIT LATER EWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX. GIVEN 50+ KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT...AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /PW
AOA 1.75 INCHES/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND SUPERCELL
COMPLEXES WITH A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND...AND
TORNADOES. GIVEN STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING UPR TROUGH...THE STORMS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE QLCS THIS EVE/TNGT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BOWS AND LEWPS POSING A CONTINUING SVR THREAT
EWD ACROSS SRN AR AND NRN/CNTRL LA INTO NRN/CNTRL MS EARLY SAT.

...CNTRL PLNS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
A SEPARATE SVR THREAT AREA LIKELY WILL EVOLVE OVER PARTS OF CNTRL
PLNS THIS AFTN AND EVE...WHERE SFC HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF THE
SRN BRANCH TROUGH WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION. SOME ASPECTS OF
THE SITUATION ARE CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG A ROUGHLY SW-NE DIAGONAL AXIS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN KS. BUT THE
SFC LOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSELY-ORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY...AND
THE STRONGEST MID-UPR LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION.  COUPLED
WITH THE PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF STORMS FARTHER S...AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...DEGREE
OF STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS UNCLEAR ATTM.
NEVERTHELESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF KS...POCKETS OF ENHANCED
BUOYANCY/CONVERGENCE LIKELY WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME STORMS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DMGG
WIND...INTO EARLY TNGT.

..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 04/24/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 241302
SWODY1
SPC AC 241300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX ENE INTO SRN
AR/NRN LA...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN
KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHD
AREA...FROM KS SSE TO THE WRN GULF CST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB SSE TO THE WRN AND
CNTRL GULF CST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BOTH AREAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL SOMEWHAT AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS
SRN BRANCH TROUGH NOW OVER N CNTRL MEX/SW NM CONTINUES NE TO THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE THIS EVE...AND INTO ERN KS EARLY SAT...WHILE UPSTREAM
NRN BRANCH TROUGH AMPLIFIES SE INTO CA. THE SHORTENING WAVELENGTH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL TEMPORARILY STRENGTHEN THE NM
DISTURBANCE AND YIELD A BELT OF ENHANCED WSWLY FLOW OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE PLNS LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT.

AT LWR LVLS...EXPECT A SFC LOW TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE OK PANHANDLE
BY THIS EVE...WITH THE LOW CONTINUING NE TO NEAR KANSAS CITY EARLY
SAT. IN RESPONSE...DIFFUSE WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDING ROUGHLY WNW-ESE
ACROSS WRN OK/N TX AND SRN LA WILL ADVANCE N/NEWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ITS POLEWARD NWD MOTION WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY BE RETARDED
BY THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STORM CLUSTERS AND CLOUDS OVER ERN
PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS.

...SRN PLNS TO LWR MS VLY TODAY/TNGT...
SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO WILL BE COMPLICATED IN THIS REGION BY
OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT AND ONGOING STORM COMPLEXES...DIFFUSE NATURE
OF WARM FRONT...AND PRESENCE OF THICK MID/HIGH-LVL CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM
FROM NM UPR TROUGH. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND
LOW-LVL UPLIFT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON SRN SIDE OF N TX CONVECTIVE
BAND...AND UPLIFT ALONG WARM FRONTAL SEGMENTS IN THE
VICINITY...SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG TO SVR STORMS BY MID TO LATE AFTN.  THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN
IN CNTRL TX...WHERE INTERSECTION OF EWD-ACCELERATING DRY LINE WILL
ASSIST IN LIFTING PARCELS TO THE LFC. STORMS MAY THEN FORM AND/OR
INTENSIFY A BIT LATER EWD ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX. GIVEN 50+ KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT...AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /PW
AOA 1.75 INCHES/...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND SUPERCELL
COMPLEXES WITH A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND...AND
TORNADOES. GIVEN STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LVL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING UPR TROUGH...THE STORMS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE QLCS THIS EVE/TNGT. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CONTAIN BOWS AND LEWPS POSING A CONTINUING SVR THREAT
EWD ACROSS SRN AR AND NRN/CNTRL LA INTO NRN/CNTRL MS EARLY SAT.

...CNTRL PLNS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
A SEPARATE SVR THREAT AREA LIKELY WILL EVOLVE OVER PARTS OF CNTRL
PLNS THIS AFTN AND EVE...WHERE SFC HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF THE
SRN BRANCH TROUGH WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION. SOME ASPECTS OF
THE SITUATION ARE CERTAINLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG A ROUGHLY SW-NE DIAGONAL AXIS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN KS. BUT THE
SFC LOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSELY-ORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY...AND
THE STRONGEST MID-UPR LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION.  COUPLED
WITH THE PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURN DUE TO CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF STORMS FARTHER S...AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...DEGREE
OF STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS UNCLEAR ATTM.
NEVERTHELESS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF KS...POCKETS OF ENHANCED
BUOYANCY/CONVERGENCE LIKELY WILL YIELD AT LEAST SOME STORMS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DMGG
WIND...INTO EARLY TNGT.

..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 04/24/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241041
TXZ000-241215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98...

VALID 241041Z - 241215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98 CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX UNTIL 15Z WITH THE PRIMARY
RISK OF SEVERE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...EARLIER SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A
QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO VICINITY AND NEARBY
I-10/I-35 CORRIDORS. LOCALLY HEAVY/REPETITIVE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN
THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THESE STORMS ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX. WHILE THE NEARBY WARM SECTOR MAY BE BECOMING
INCREASING CAPPED/SUBJECT TO SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS SOUTH
TX...ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO REGENERATE NEAR/NORTH
OF PRIOR OUTFLOW ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER
VICINITY. SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

..GUYER.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   27269948 27269948 27269948 27309954 28280029 28900063
            28930065 29350088 29990032 29909884 28689801 28339796
            28059787 27429890 27269948 27269948





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241041
TXZ000-241215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98...

VALID 241041Z - 241215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98 CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX UNTIL 15Z WITH THE PRIMARY
RISK OF SEVERE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...EARLIER SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A
QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO VICINITY AND NEARBY
I-10/I-35 CORRIDORS. LOCALLY HEAVY/REPETITIVE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN
THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THESE STORMS ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX. WHILE THE NEARBY WARM SECTOR MAY BE BECOMING
INCREASING CAPPED/SUBJECT TO SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS SOUTH
TX...ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO REGENERATE NEAR/NORTH
OF PRIOR OUTFLOW ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER
VICINITY. SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

..GUYER.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   27269948 27269948 27269948 27309954 28280029 28900063
            28930065 29350088 29990032 29909884 28689801 28339796
            28059787 27429890 27269948 27269948





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241041
TXZ000-241215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98...

VALID 241041Z - 241215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98 CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX UNTIL 15Z WITH THE PRIMARY
RISK OF SEVERE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...EARLIER SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A
QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO VICINITY AND NEARBY
I-10/I-35 CORRIDORS. LOCALLY HEAVY/REPETITIVE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN
THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THESE STORMS ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX. WHILE THE NEARBY WARM SECTOR MAY BE BECOMING
INCREASING CAPPED/SUBJECT TO SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS SOUTH
TX...ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO REGENERATE NEAR/NORTH
OF PRIOR OUTFLOW ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER
VICINITY. SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

..GUYER.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   27269948 27269948 27269948 27309954 28280029 28900063
            28930065 29350088 29990032 29909884 28689801 28339796
            28059787 27429890 27269948 27269948





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241041
TXZ000-241215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98...

VALID 241041Z - 241215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98 CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX UNTIL 15Z WITH THE PRIMARY
RISK OF SEVERE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...EARLIER SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A
QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO VICINITY AND NEARBY
I-10/I-35 CORRIDORS. LOCALLY HEAVY/REPETITIVE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN
THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THESE STORMS ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX. WHILE THE NEARBY WARM SECTOR MAY BE BECOMING
INCREASING CAPPED/SUBJECT TO SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS SOUTH
TX...ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO REGENERATE NEAR/NORTH
OF PRIOR OUTFLOW ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER
VICINITY. SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

..GUYER.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   27269948 27269948 27269948 27309954 28280029 28900063
            28930065 29350088 29990032 29909884 28689801 28339796
            28059787 27429890 27269948 27269948






000
ACUS11 KWNS 241042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241041
TXZ000-241215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98...

VALID 241041Z - 241215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98 CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX UNTIL 15Z WITH THE PRIMARY
RISK OF SEVERE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...EARLIER SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS HAVE CONGEALED INTO A
QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO VICINITY AND NEARBY
I-10/I-35 CORRIDORS. LOCALLY HEAVY/REPETITIVE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN
THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THESE STORMS ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX. WHILE THE NEARBY WARM SECTOR MAY BE BECOMING
INCREASING CAPPED/SUBJECT TO SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS SOUTH
TX...ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO REGENERATE NEAR/NORTH
OF PRIOR OUTFLOW ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE RIVER
VICINITY. SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

..GUYER.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   27269948 27269948 27269948 27309954 28280029 28900063
            28930065 29350088 29990032 29909884 28689801 28339796
            28059787 27429890 27269948 27269948






000
ACUS11 KWNS 240736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240736
TXZ000-240900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0430
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 240736Z - 240900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY MAY POSE MOSTLY A LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY SOME TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
OVERNIGHT. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
RIVER INTO SOUTHERN MAVERICK COUNTY TX. THE REGION APPEARS TO BE AT
LEAST SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED BY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS VIA AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX IS VERY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN
THE PRESENCE OF LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES THAT ARE LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. ACCENTUATED BY LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ALONG
WITH SOME TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28620046 29029957 28309844 27449949 28620046





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240736
TXZ000-240900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0430
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 240736Z - 240900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY MAY POSE MOSTLY A LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY SOME TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
OVERNIGHT. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
RIVER INTO SOUTHERN MAVERICK COUNTY TX. THE REGION APPEARS TO BE AT
LEAST SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED BY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS VIA AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX IS VERY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN
THE PRESENCE OF LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES THAT ARE LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. ACCENTUATED BY LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ALONG
WITH SOME TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28620046 29029957 28309844 27449949 28620046





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240736
TXZ000-240900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0430
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 240736Z - 240900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY MAY POSE MOSTLY A LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY SOME TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
OVERNIGHT. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
RIVER INTO SOUTHERN MAVERICK COUNTY TX. THE REGION APPEARS TO BE AT
LEAST SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED BY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS VIA AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX IS VERY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN
THE PRESENCE OF LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES THAT ARE LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. ACCENTUATED BY LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ALONG
WITH SOME TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28620046 29029957 28309844 27449949 28620046






000
ACUS11 KWNS 240736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240736
TXZ000-240900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0430
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 240736Z - 240900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY MAY POSE MOSTLY A LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY SOME TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
OVERNIGHT. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
RIVER INTO SOUTHERN MAVERICK COUNTY TX. THE REGION APPEARS TO BE AT
LEAST SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED BY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS VIA AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX IS VERY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN
THE PRESENCE OF LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES THAT ARE LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. ACCENTUATED BY LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ALONG
WITH SOME TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28620046 29029957 28309844 27449949 28620046





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240736
TXZ000-240900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0430
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 240736Z - 240900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY MAY POSE MOSTLY A LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY SOME TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
OVERNIGHT. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
RIVER INTO SOUTHERN MAVERICK COUNTY TX. THE REGION APPEARS TO BE AT
LEAST SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED BY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS VIA AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX IS VERY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN
THE PRESENCE OF LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES THAT ARE LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. ACCENTUATED BY LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ALONG
WITH SOME TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28620046 29029957 28309844 27449949 28620046





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240736
TXZ000-240900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0430
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 240736Z - 240900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY MAY POSE MOSTLY A LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY SOME TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
OVERNIGHT. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
RIVER INTO SOUTHERN MAVERICK COUNTY TX. THE REGION APPEARS TO BE AT
LEAST SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED BY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS VIA AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX IS VERY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN
THE PRESENCE OF LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES THAT ARE LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. ACCENTUATED BY LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ALONG
WITH SOME TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28620046 29029957 28309844 27449949 28620046






000
ACUS03 KWNS 240702
SWODY3
SPC AC 240701

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF COAST STATES.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF WRN U.S. TROUGH INTO THE DAY3 PERIOD.  A SUBSTANTIAL
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK SHOULD TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
BEFORE EJECTING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THIS
SCENARIO FAVORS A LEE CYCLONE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH A SHARP DRY
LINE...LIKELY ARCING ACROSS NWRN-SWRN TX AT PEAK HEATING.  WHILE
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A COASTAL BOUNDARY MAY RETARD NWD
ADVANCEMENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO NCNTRL TX...INCREASING
DIFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW AND APPROACHING SPEED MAX SUGGEST
MOISTENING WILL RAPIDLY SURGE NWD LATE IN THE PERIOD.  IF THIS
MOISTURE RETURNS BY LATE AFTERNOON THEN SCT SUPERCELLS SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE.  STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT FAVOR NWD DEVELOPMENT INTO OK AFTER DARK.

...GULF STATES...

SEASONALLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SRN STATES THROUGH SUNDAY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
SFC FRONT AS IT SAGS SWD TO NEAR I-20 BY 27/00Z...AND ALONG
FAVORABLE SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENT ZONES.  IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUCH
THAT A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THEN SEVERE
PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED.  FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE 5
PERCENT SEVERE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED NATURE.

..DARROW.. 04/24/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 240702
SWODY3
SPC AC 240701

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF COAST STATES.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF WRN U.S. TROUGH INTO THE DAY3 PERIOD.  A SUBSTANTIAL
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK SHOULD TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
BEFORE EJECTING ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THIS
SCENARIO FAVORS A LEE CYCLONE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH A SHARP DRY
LINE...LIKELY ARCING ACROSS NWRN-SWRN TX AT PEAK HEATING.  WHILE
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A COASTAL BOUNDARY MAY RETARD NWD
ADVANCEMENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO NCNTRL TX...INCREASING
DIFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW AND APPROACHING SPEED MAX SUGGEST
MOISTENING WILL RAPIDLY SURGE NWD LATE IN THE PERIOD.  IF THIS
MOISTURE RETURNS BY LATE AFTERNOON THEN SCT SUPERCELLS SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE.  STRENGTHENING SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT FAVOR NWD DEVELOPMENT INTO OK AFTER DARK.

...GULF STATES...

SEASONALLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SRN STATES THROUGH SUNDAY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
SFC FRONT AS IT SAGS SWD TO NEAR I-20 BY 27/00Z...AND ALONG
FAVORABLE SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENT ZONES.  IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUCH
THAT A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THEN SEVERE
PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED.  FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE 5
PERCENT SEVERE TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED NATURE.

..DARROW.. 04/24/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 240555
SWODY1
SPC AC 240553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
THE ARKLATEX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK
AREAS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN
GULF COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS AS FAR NORTH AS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...AS WELL
AS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE ARKLATEX REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF CLOSED LOWS WITHIN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT WESTERLIES
EMANATING FROM THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC MAY ONLY SHIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...ONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...THE OTHER INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THOUGH...WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...IN
PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM.  ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONTINUING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID/LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF DRY/POTENTIALLY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
CLOSED LOW...WHICH IS STILL SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...A
WEDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVECT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...GRADUALLY WRAPPING INTO THE VICINITY OF THE DEEPENING LOW
CENTER.  THIS MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES...AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
WHILE THE EVOLVING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN COULD SUPPORT EVEN MORE
SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...A
NUMBER OF UNCERTAINTIES DO EXIST WHICH PRECLUDE HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.  THIS INCLUDES THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CONSIDERABLE EARLY PERIOD MID/UPPER CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
CIRRUS SHIELD ACCOMPANYING THE SUBTROPICAL JET...AND AREAS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE RETURNING MOIST PLUME.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS...AS WELL AS NEAR MID/UPPER TEXAS GULF
COASTAL AREAS.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY...INCLUDING MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

REGARDLESS...FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 70-80+ KT 500 MB JET
NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A STRONGLY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW
REGIME OVERSPREADING NORTH TEXAS /JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET
AXIS...AHEAD OF THE BASE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE
PLAINS/...PROBABLY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE SUBSTANTIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA...WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY BE WEAKER...WHILE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE
 NORTHERN AREA MAY COMPENSATE FOR MORE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN.

BY 21-23Z...THE ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELL
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE...AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT... ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL KANSAS.  STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG...BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD THIS EVENING.

TIMING IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS... BUT
IT MAY BE CLOSER TO...OR AFTER...25/00Z...WHEN LARGE-SCALE FORCING
AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT AN UPSCALE GROWING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM.  VERY LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL
ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BECOMES MORE
PROMINENT DURING THE EVENING.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE EVOLVING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD BE PRECEDED BY DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS
WHICH COULD POSE A MORE APPRECIABLE RISK FOR
TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY AS ACTIVITY SPREADS TOWARD THE ARKLATEX
REGION...COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING OF INITIALLY MODEST SOUTHERLY
850 MB FLOW FIELDS.

..KERR/ROGERS.. 04/24/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 240555
SWODY1
SPC AC 240553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
THE ARKLATEX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK
AREAS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN
GULF COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS AS FAR NORTH AS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...AS WELL
AS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE ARKLATEX REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF CLOSED LOWS WITHIN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT WESTERLIES
EMANATING FROM THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC MAY ONLY SHIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...ONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...THE OTHER INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THOUGH...WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...IN
PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM.  ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONTINUING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID/LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF DRY/POTENTIALLY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
CLOSED LOW...WHICH IS STILL SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...A
WEDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVECT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...GRADUALLY WRAPPING INTO THE VICINITY OF THE DEEPENING LOW
CENTER.  THIS MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES...AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
WHILE THE EVOLVING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN COULD SUPPORT EVEN MORE
SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...A
NUMBER OF UNCERTAINTIES DO EXIST WHICH PRECLUDE HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.  THIS INCLUDES THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CONSIDERABLE EARLY PERIOD MID/UPPER CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
CIRRUS SHIELD ACCOMPANYING THE SUBTROPICAL JET...AND AREAS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE RETURNING MOIST PLUME.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS...AS WELL AS NEAR MID/UPPER TEXAS GULF
COASTAL AREAS.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY...INCLUDING MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

REGARDLESS...FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 70-80+ KT 500 MB JET
NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A STRONGLY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW
REGIME OVERSPREADING NORTH TEXAS /JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET
AXIS...AHEAD OF THE BASE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE
PLAINS/...PROBABLY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE SUBSTANTIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA...WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY BE WEAKER...WHILE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE
 NORTHERN AREA MAY COMPENSATE FOR MORE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN.

BY 21-23Z...THE ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELL
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE...AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT... ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL KANSAS.  STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG...BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD THIS EVENING.

TIMING IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS... BUT
IT MAY BE CLOSER TO...OR AFTER...25/00Z...WHEN LARGE-SCALE FORCING
AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT AN UPSCALE GROWING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM.  VERY LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL
ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BECOMES MORE
PROMINENT DURING THE EVENING.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE EVOLVING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD BE PRECEDED BY DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS
WHICH COULD POSE A MORE APPRECIABLE RISK FOR
TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY AS ACTIVITY SPREADS TOWARD THE ARKLATEX
REGION...COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING OF INITIALLY MODEST SOUTHERLY
850 MB FLOW FIELDS.

..KERR/ROGERS.. 04/24/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 240555
SWODY1
SPC AC 240553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
THE ARKLATEX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK
AREAS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN
GULF COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS AS FAR NORTH AS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...AS WELL
AS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE ARKLATEX REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF CLOSED LOWS WITHIN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT WESTERLIES
EMANATING FROM THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC MAY ONLY SHIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...ONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...THE OTHER INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THOUGH...WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...IN
PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM.  ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONTINUING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID/LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF DRY/POTENTIALLY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
CLOSED LOW...WHICH IS STILL SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...A
WEDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVECT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...GRADUALLY WRAPPING INTO THE VICINITY OF THE DEEPENING LOW
CENTER.  THIS MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES...AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
WHILE THE EVOLVING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN COULD SUPPORT EVEN MORE
SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...A
NUMBER OF UNCERTAINTIES DO EXIST WHICH PRECLUDE HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.  THIS INCLUDES THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CONSIDERABLE EARLY PERIOD MID/UPPER CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
CIRRUS SHIELD ACCOMPANYING THE SUBTROPICAL JET...AND AREAS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE RETURNING MOIST PLUME.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS...AS WELL AS NEAR MID/UPPER TEXAS GULF
COASTAL AREAS.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY...INCLUDING MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

REGARDLESS...FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 70-80+ KT 500 MB JET
NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A STRONGLY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW
REGIME OVERSPREADING NORTH TEXAS /JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET
AXIS...AHEAD OF THE BASE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE
PLAINS/...PROBABLY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE SUBSTANTIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA...WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY BE WEAKER...WHILE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE
 NORTHERN AREA MAY COMPENSATE FOR MORE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN.

BY 21-23Z...THE ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELL
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE...AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT... ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL KANSAS.  STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG...BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD THIS EVENING.

TIMING IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS... BUT
IT MAY BE CLOSER TO...OR AFTER...25/00Z...WHEN LARGE-SCALE FORCING
AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT AN UPSCALE GROWING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM.  VERY LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL
ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BECOMES MORE
PROMINENT DURING THE EVENING.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE EVOLVING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD BE PRECEDED BY DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS
WHICH COULD POSE A MORE APPRECIABLE RISK FOR
TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY AS ACTIVITY SPREADS TOWARD THE ARKLATEX
REGION...COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING OF INITIALLY MODEST SOUTHERLY
850 MB FLOW FIELDS.

..KERR/ROGERS.. 04/24/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 240555
SWODY1
SPC AC 240553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
THE ARKLATEX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK
AREAS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN
GULF COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS AS FAR NORTH AS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...AS WELL
AS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE ARKLATEX REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF CLOSED LOWS WITHIN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT WESTERLIES
EMANATING FROM THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC MAY ONLY SHIFT SLOWLY
EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...ONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...THE OTHER INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...THOUGH...WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...IN
PHASE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM.  ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE CONTINUING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID/LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF DRY/POTENTIALLY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
CLOSED LOW...WHICH IS STILL SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...A
WEDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVECT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...GRADUALLY WRAPPING INTO THE VICINITY OF THE DEEPENING LOW
CENTER.  THIS MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES...AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
WHILE THE EVOLVING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN COULD SUPPORT EVEN MORE
SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...A
NUMBER OF UNCERTAINTIES DO EXIST WHICH PRECLUDE HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.  THIS INCLUDES THE LIKELIHOOD OF
CONSIDERABLE EARLY PERIOD MID/UPPER CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A
CIRRUS SHIELD ACCOMPANYING THE SUBTROPICAL JET...AND AREAS OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE RETURNING MOIST PLUME.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS...AS WELL AS NEAR MID/UPPER TEXAS GULF
COASTAL AREAS.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT IMPACT THIS WILL HAVE ON
SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY...INCLUDING MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

REGARDLESS...FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 70-80+ KT 500 MB JET
NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND A STRONGLY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW
REGIME OVERSPREADING NORTH TEXAS /JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET
AXIS...AHEAD OF THE BASE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE
PLAINS/...PROBABLY WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE SUBSTANTIVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA...WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY BE WEAKER...WHILE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE
 NORTHERN AREA MAY COMPENSATE FOR MORE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN.

BY 21-23Z...THE ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELL
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE...AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT... ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL KANSAS.  STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG...BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD THIS EVENING.

TIMING IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN TEXAS... BUT
IT MAY BE CLOSER TO...OR AFTER...25/00Z...WHEN LARGE-SCALE FORCING
AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT AN UPSCALE GROWING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM.  VERY LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL
ACTIVITY...BEFORE THE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BECOMES MORE
PROMINENT DURING THE EVENING.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE EVOLVING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD BE PRECEDED BY DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS
WHICH COULD POSE A MORE APPRECIABLE RISK FOR
TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY AS ACTIVITY SPREADS TOWARD THE ARKLATEX
REGION...COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING OF INITIALLY MODEST SOUTHERLY
850 MB FLOW FIELDS.

..KERR/ROGERS.. 04/24/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 240449
SWODY2
SPC AC 240448

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEY REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK TO THE
GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS TO CNTL FL...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.  VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF COAST REGION.

...LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGION...

BAJA PENINSULA SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY1 PERIOD...THEN INTO THE MS
VALLEY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX...ON THE
ORDER OF 80KT...IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS AR TO NEAR THE TN/AL
BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  12HR HEIGHT FALLS NEAR 90M SHOULD SPREAD
NORTH OF THE SPEED MAX ACROSS THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGION WITH
FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED ALONG A WARM FRONT
THAT WILL DRAPE ITSELF FROM SRN IL...INTO ERN KY.

SUBSTANTIAL WLY DEEP LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DRAW A PLUME OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES/DRY SLOT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SRN MO/AR REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  BY MID-DAY A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED DRY LINE
SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER CNTRL MO...SWD INTO AR.  STRONG
HEATING EAST OF THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
EARLY-MORNING MCS THAT SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION.  AS A
RESULT...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SUBSTANTIAL WARM SECTOR
RECOVERY WILL BE NOTED WITHIN VEERED FLOW REGIME SUCH THAT MODERATE
BUOYANCY AND STRONGLY SHEARED PARAMETER FIELDS WILL BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.  WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW AS IT
TRACKS ESEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY...STORMS THAT DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS KY AND TN SHOULD EASILY ROTATE AND VERY LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.  CONDITIONS COULD EVOLVE SUCH THAT
A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
REGION FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.


...GULF COAST REGION...

SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL BE
MORE NEBULOUS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.  LATEST THINKING IS A
SUBSTANTIAL EARLY MORNING MCS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NRN GULF
STATES/TN VALLEY REGION WITH A TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED SWWD
ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAIN.  STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING/STEEPEST
LAPSE RATES WILL FOCUS NORTH OF THIS REGION BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  IT/S NOT REAL
CLEAR HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION BUT CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR SCT THUNDERSTORMS
TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO
PORTIONS OF SRN GA.  GREATEST RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES...AS LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER
ACROSS THIS REGION THAN FARTHER NORTH.

..DARROW.. 04/24/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 240449
SWODY2
SPC AC 240448

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEY REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK TO THE
GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS TO CNTL FL...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.  VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF COAST REGION.

...LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGION...

BAJA PENINSULA SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY1 PERIOD...THEN INTO THE MS
VALLEY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX...ON THE
ORDER OF 80KT...IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS AR TO NEAR THE TN/AL
BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  12HR HEIGHT FALLS NEAR 90M SHOULD SPREAD
NORTH OF THE SPEED MAX ACROSS THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGION WITH
FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED ALONG A WARM FRONT
THAT WILL DRAPE ITSELF FROM SRN IL...INTO ERN KY.

SUBSTANTIAL WLY DEEP LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DRAW A PLUME OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES/DRY SLOT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SRN MO/AR REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  BY MID-DAY A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED DRY LINE
SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER CNTRL MO...SWD INTO AR.  STRONG
HEATING EAST OF THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
EARLY-MORNING MCS THAT SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION.  AS A
RESULT...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SUBSTANTIAL WARM SECTOR
RECOVERY WILL BE NOTED WITHIN VEERED FLOW REGIME SUCH THAT MODERATE
BUOYANCY AND STRONGLY SHEARED PARAMETER FIELDS WILL BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.  WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW AS IT
TRACKS ESEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY...STORMS THAT DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS KY AND TN SHOULD EASILY ROTATE AND VERY LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.  CONDITIONS COULD EVOLVE SUCH THAT
A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
REGION FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.


...GULF COAST REGION...

SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL BE
MORE NEBULOUS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.  LATEST THINKING IS A
SUBSTANTIAL EARLY MORNING MCS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NRN GULF
STATES/TN VALLEY REGION WITH A TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED SWWD
ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAIN.  STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING/STEEPEST
LAPSE RATES WILL FOCUS NORTH OF THIS REGION BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  IT/S NOT REAL
CLEAR HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION BUT CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR SCT THUNDERSTORMS
TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO
PORTIONS OF SRN GA.  GREATEST RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES...AS LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER
ACROSS THIS REGION THAN FARTHER NORTH.

..DARROW.. 04/24/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 240449
SWODY2
SPC AC 240448

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEY REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK TO THE
GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS TO CNTL FL...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.  VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF COAST REGION.

...LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGION...

BAJA PENINSULA SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY1 PERIOD...THEN INTO THE MS
VALLEY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX...ON THE
ORDER OF 80KT...IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS AR TO NEAR THE TN/AL
BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  12HR HEIGHT FALLS NEAR 90M SHOULD SPREAD
NORTH OF THE SPEED MAX ACROSS THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGION WITH
FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED ALONG A WARM FRONT
THAT WILL DRAPE ITSELF FROM SRN IL...INTO ERN KY.

SUBSTANTIAL WLY DEEP LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DRAW A PLUME OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES/DRY SLOT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SRN MO/AR REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  BY MID-DAY A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED DRY LINE
SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER CNTRL MO...SWD INTO AR.  STRONG
HEATING EAST OF THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
EARLY-MORNING MCS THAT SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION.  AS A
RESULT...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SUBSTANTIAL WARM SECTOR
RECOVERY WILL BE NOTED WITHIN VEERED FLOW REGIME SUCH THAT MODERATE
BUOYANCY AND STRONGLY SHEARED PARAMETER FIELDS WILL BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.  WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW AS IT
TRACKS ESEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY...STORMS THAT DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS KY AND TN SHOULD EASILY ROTATE AND VERY LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.  CONDITIONS COULD EVOLVE SUCH THAT
A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
REGION FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.


...GULF COAST REGION...

SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL BE
MORE NEBULOUS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.  LATEST THINKING IS A
SUBSTANTIAL EARLY MORNING MCS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NRN GULF
STATES/TN VALLEY REGION WITH A TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED SWWD
ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAIN.  STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING/STEEPEST
LAPSE RATES WILL FOCUS NORTH OF THIS REGION BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  IT/S NOT REAL
CLEAR HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION BUT CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR SCT THUNDERSTORMS
TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO
PORTIONS OF SRN GA.  GREATEST RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES...AS LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER
ACROSS THIS REGION THAN FARTHER NORTH.

..DARROW.. 04/24/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 240449
SWODY2
SPC AC 240448

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND TN
VALLEY REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK TO THE
GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS TO CNTL FL...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.  VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF COAST REGION.

...LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGION...

BAJA PENINSULA SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY1 PERIOD...THEN INTO THE MS
VALLEY BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX...ON THE
ORDER OF 80KT...IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS AR TO NEAR THE TN/AL
BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  12HR HEIGHT FALLS NEAR 90M SHOULD SPREAD
NORTH OF THE SPEED MAX ACROSS THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGION WITH
FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED ALONG A WARM FRONT
THAT WILL DRAPE ITSELF FROM SRN IL...INTO ERN KY.

SUBSTANTIAL WLY DEEP LAYER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DRAW A PLUME OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES/DRY SLOT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SRN MO/AR REGION
EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  BY MID-DAY A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED DRY LINE
SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER CNTRL MO...SWD INTO AR.  STRONG
HEATING EAST OF THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
EARLY-MORNING MCS THAT SHOULD BE DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION.  AS A
RESULT...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SUBSTANTIAL WARM SECTOR
RECOVERY WILL BE NOTED WITHIN VEERED FLOW REGIME SUCH THAT MODERATE
BUOYANCY AND STRONGLY SHEARED PARAMETER FIELDS WILL BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.  WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW AS IT
TRACKS ESEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY...STORMS THAT DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT ACROSS KY AND TN SHOULD EASILY ROTATE AND VERY LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED.  CONDITIONS COULD EVOLVE SUCH THAT
A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
REGION FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.


...GULF COAST REGION...

SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL BE
MORE NEBULOUS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.  LATEST THINKING IS A
SUBSTANTIAL EARLY MORNING MCS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NRN GULF
STATES/TN VALLEY REGION WITH A TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED SWWD
ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAIN.  STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL HEATING/STEEPEST
LAPSE RATES WILL FOCUS NORTH OF THIS REGION BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  IT/S NOT REAL
CLEAR HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION BUT CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR SCT THUNDERSTORMS
TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO
PORTIONS OF SRN GA.  GREATEST RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES...AS LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER
ACROSS THIS REGION THAN FARTHER NORTH.

..DARROW.. 04/24/2015






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