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000
ACUS01 KWNS 300042
SWODY1
SPC AC 300041

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WEST...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...FLORIDA...AND THE
GREAT LAKES.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WHICH WILL PROGRESS SEWD INTO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
ALIGN WITH INCREASING WAA AT THE TERMINUS OF A NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED
LLJ TO FOCUS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED TSTMS FROM WRN KS INTO
PARTS OF WRN TX AND OK. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...WESTERN STATES AND GREAT LAKES...

ASIDE FROM PERSISTENT TSTMS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES...EXPECT A
GENERAL DECREASE IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORM COVERAGE AND VIGOR
TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY COOLS AND STABILIZES.

..MEAD.. 07/30/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 300042
SWODY1
SPC AC 300041

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WEST...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...FLORIDA...AND THE
GREAT LAKES.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WHICH WILL PROGRESS SEWD INTO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
ALIGN WITH INCREASING WAA AT THE TERMINUS OF A NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED
LLJ TO FOCUS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED TSTMS FROM WRN KS INTO
PARTS OF WRN TX AND OK. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...WESTERN STATES AND GREAT LAKES...

ASIDE FROM PERSISTENT TSTMS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES...EXPECT A
GENERAL DECREASE IN DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORM COVERAGE AND VIGOR
TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY COOLS AND STABILIZES.

..MEAD.. 07/30/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 292036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292036
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-292130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NE MN INTO WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292036Z - 292130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
FROM NE MN ACROSS MUCH OF WI THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY
BRIEFLY PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING 1 INCH. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK S/SE FROM
THE MN ARROWHEAD ACROSS MUCH OF WI THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
INSTABILITY...BULK SHEAR VALUES LESS THAN 30 KT AND POOR MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION AND UPDRAFT
INTENSITY. A FEW STORMS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
BUT THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. AS SUCH...A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

..LEITMAN/GOSS.. 07/29/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   48449250 46989007 45258775 44608738 43848758 43488800
            43188895 43338995 43689083 44339152 44969217 45949273
            46859297 47789325 48309307 48449250





000
ACUS11 KWNS 292036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292036
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-292130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NE MN INTO WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292036Z - 292130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
FROM NE MN ACROSS MUCH OF WI THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY
BRIEFLY PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING 1 INCH. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK S/SE FROM
THE MN ARROWHEAD ACROSS MUCH OF WI THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
INSTABILITY...BULK SHEAR VALUES LESS THAN 30 KT AND POOR MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION AND UPDRAFT
INTENSITY. A FEW STORMS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
BUT THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. AS SUCH...A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

..LEITMAN/GOSS.. 07/29/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   48449250 46989007 45258775 44608738 43848758 43488800
            43188895 43338995 43689083 44339152 44969217 45949273
            46859297 47789325 48309307 48449250





000
ACUS11 KWNS 292036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292036
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-292130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NE MN INTO WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292036Z - 292130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
FROM NE MN ACROSS MUCH OF WI THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY
BRIEFLY PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING 1 INCH. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK S/SE FROM
THE MN ARROWHEAD ACROSS MUCH OF WI THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
INSTABILITY...BULK SHEAR VALUES LESS THAN 30 KT AND POOR MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION AND UPDRAFT
INTENSITY. A FEW STORMS MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
BUT THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. AS SUCH...A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

..LEITMAN/GOSS.. 07/29/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   48449250 46989007 45258775 44608738 43848758 43488800
            43188895 43338995 43689083 44339152 44969217 45949273
            46859297 47789325 48309307 48449250






000
ACUS01 KWNS 291950
SWODY1
SPC AC 291948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
GENERAL STORMS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WEST...SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...FLORIDA...AND THE GREAT LAKES.

...WI...
SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NRN WI WITHIN A
MEAGERLY BUOYANT AIR MASS AMIDST SURFACE DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 50S.
WITH NWLY SURFACE WINDS LIMITING 0-6 KM SHEAR TO AROUND 20-25 KT PER
DLH/GRB VWP DATA...THE DEGREE OF CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR IS UNLIKELY TO
SUPPORT UPDRAFT INTENSITIES REQUIRED TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED SEVERE
HAIL. HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN PROBABLE IN THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS.

..GRAMS.. 07/29/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS PERIOD
/S OF A PERSISTENT VORTEX CENTERED INVOF JAMES BAY/...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED/BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA E OF
THE ROCKIES.  MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT OFF THE E COAST -- TRAILING WWD ACROSS
FL AND THE NRN GULF AND THEN TURNING NWWD ACROSS TX AND INTO THE
ROCKIES -- WILL MOVE LITTLE...AS THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WHILE ALSO INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITHIN THE
ASSOCIATED/POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHERE SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

...WI VICINITY...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
SSEWD ACROSS WI THIS AFTERNOON...AS DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING
PEAKS BENEATH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -16 AT H5/ --
YIELDING MODEST /AROUND 500 J/KG/ MIXED-LAYER CAPE.  WITH MODERATE
MID-LEVEL NNWLYS SUPPORTING 25 TO 30 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...A FEW
CELLS MAY BRIEFLY ACQUIRE SUFFICIENT INTENSITY TO PRODUCE HAIL --
POSSIBLY APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS -- BEFORE CONVECTION DIMINISHES
THIS EVENING.





000
ACUS02 KWNS 291731
SWODY2
SPC AC 291730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM JAMES BAY
S ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. A COUPLE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES SHOULD
GRADUALLY PROGRESS SE FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES TO SRN PLAINS ON THE
FRINGE OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. AT THE SURFACE...A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED NEAR THE RED RIVER OF THE S.

...RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH...
LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LEVEL IMPULSES SHOULD AID IN SUSTAINING A LARGE NON-SEVERE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS PARTS OF OK/S KS/N TX AT 12Z/WED.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION N OF THE FRONT IN CONTRAST TO ROBUST
INSOLATION S OF THE BOUNDARY WILL YIELD A PRONOUNCED DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING CORRIDOR /LIKELY INVOF THE RED RIVER/. OVERALL BUOYANCY WILL
REMAIN WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS REACH THE UPPER 60S. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
AND STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD FOSTER RENEWED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE MODEST...VERTICALLY VEERING 0-3 KM
WIND PROFILES COULD YIELD TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITHIN
EMBEDDED CLUSTERS THAT ARE CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.

...MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK BUOYANCY AND MODEST
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING GRADUAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES DURING THE DAY. THIS WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
TEMPER HAIL SIZE GROWTH AND RESULT IN ONLY SMALL HAIL IN THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

..GRAMS.. 07/29/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 291731
SWODY2
SPC AC 291730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM JAMES BAY
S ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. A COUPLE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES SHOULD
GRADUALLY PROGRESS SE FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES TO SRN PLAINS ON THE
FRINGE OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. AT THE SURFACE...A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED NEAR THE RED RIVER OF THE S.

...RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH...
LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LEVEL IMPULSES SHOULD AID IN SUSTAINING A LARGE NON-SEVERE
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS PARTS OF OK/S KS/N TX AT 12Z/WED.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION N OF THE FRONT IN CONTRAST TO ROBUST
INSOLATION S OF THE BOUNDARY WILL YIELD A PRONOUNCED DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING CORRIDOR /LIKELY INVOF THE RED RIVER/. OVERALL BUOYANCY WILL
REMAIN WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS REACH THE UPPER 60S. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
AND STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD FOSTER RENEWED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE MODEST...VERTICALLY VEERING 0-3 KM
WIND PROFILES COULD YIELD TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITHIN
EMBEDDED CLUSTERS THAT ARE CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS.

...MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK BUOYANCY AND MODEST
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING GRADUAL
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES DURING THE DAY. THIS WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
TEMPER HAIL SIZE GROWTH AND RESULT IN ONLY SMALL HAIL IN THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

..GRAMS.. 07/29/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 291618
SWODY1
SPC AC 291617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT FROM COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO EASTWARD ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS PERIOD
/S OF A PERSISTENT VORTEX CENTERED INVOF JAMES BAY/...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED/BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA E OF
THE ROCKIES.  MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT OFF THE E COAST -- TRAILING WWD ACROSS
FL AND THE NRN GULF AND THEN TURNING NWWD ACROSS TX AND INTO THE
ROCKIES -- WILL MOVE LITTLE...AS THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WHILE ALSO INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITHIN THE
ASSOCIATED/POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHERE SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

...WI VICINITY...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
SSEWD ACROSS WI THIS AFTERNOON...AS DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING
PEAKS BENEATH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -16 AT H5/ --
YIELDING MODEST /AROUND 500 J/KG/ MIXED-LAYER CAPE.  WITH MODERATE
MID-LEVEL NNWLYS SUPPORTING 25 TO 30 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...A FEW
CELLS MAY BRIEFLY ACQUIRE SUFFICIENT INTENSITY TO PRODUCE HAIL --
POSSIBLY APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS -- BEFORE CONVECTION DIMINISHES
THIS EVENING.

..GOSS/MOSIER.. 07/29/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 291618
SWODY1
SPC AC 291617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT FROM COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO EASTWARD ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS PERIOD
/S OF A PERSISTENT VORTEX CENTERED INVOF JAMES BAY/...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED/BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA E OF
THE ROCKIES.  MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT OFF THE E COAST -- TRAILING WWD ACROSS
FL AND THE NRN GULF AND THEN TURNING NWWD ACROSS TX AND INTO THE
ROCKIES -- WILL MOVE LITTLE...AS THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WHILE ALSO INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITHIN THE
ASSOCIATED/POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHERE SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

...WI VICINITY...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
SSEWD ACROSS WI THIS AFTERNOON...AS DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING
PEAKS BENEATH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -16 AT H5/ --
YIELDING MODEST /AROUND 500 J/KG/ MIXED-LAYER CAPE.  WITH MODERATE
MID-LEVEL NNWLYS SUPPORTING 25 TO 30 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...A FEW
CELLS MAY BRIEFLY ACQUIRE SUFFICIENT INTENSITY TO PRODUCE HAIL --
POSSIBLY APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS -- BEFORE CONVECTION DIMINISHES
THIS EVENING.

..GOSS/MOSIER.. 07/29/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 291232
SWODY1
SPC AC 291231

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT FROM COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO EASTWARD ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...AND A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.  IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ERN TROUGH...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SWD
INTO N FL AND THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDS WNWWD ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL TX TO SE NM.  FARTHER N...A
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS UNDERWAY FROM ERN NM INTO ERN CO...ON
THE E SIDE OF A BROADER MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE SRN GREAT
BASIN AND SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL FAVOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA TODAY...ALONG THE FRONT IN TX THIS AFTERNOON...AND A
CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS...AS WELL AS LARGELY DIURNAL STORMS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES.  A SEPARATE AREA OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WI WITH THE MIDLEVEL COLD CORE SYSTEM.

THE PRIMARY IMPACT OF THE STORMS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SHOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  AN INITIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER
E CENTRAL NM SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING...WHILE NEW STORMS FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE W BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS CO BY
RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.  THERE MAY BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO VERTICAL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS E
CENTRAL NM AND VICINITY...BUT RATHER MODEST BUOYANCY AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUBSTANTIAL
WIND OR HAIL RISKS.  OVERNIGHT...A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EWD OVER SW KS/THE TX PANHANDLE AND S
PLAINS...AND WRN OK AS WAA INCREASES WITH A 35 KT LLJ.

HAIL MAY APPROACH 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
ACROSS WI...WHERE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IN ASSOCIATION WITH COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND EMBEDDED SPEED
MAXIMA ROTATING SWD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY.

..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 07/29/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 291232
SWODY1
SPC AC 291231

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT FROM COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO EASTWARD ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...AND A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.  IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ERN TROUGH...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SWD
INTO N FL AND THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDS WNWWD ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL TX TO SE NM.  FARTHER N...A
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS UNDERWAY FROM ERN NM INTO ERN CO...ON
THE E SIDE OF A BROADER MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE SRN GREAT
BASIN AND SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL FAVOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA TODAY...ALONG THE FRONT IN TX THIS AFTERNOON...AND A
CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS...AS WELL AS LARGELY DIURNAL STORMS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES.  A SEPARATE AREA OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WI WITH THE MIDLEVEL COLD CORE SYSTEM.

THE PRIMARY IMPACT OF THE STORMS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SHOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  AN INITIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER
E CENTRAL NM SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING...WHILE NEW STORMS FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE W BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS CO BY
RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.  THERE MAY BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO VERTICAL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS E
CENTRAL NM AND VICINITY...BUT RATHER MODEST BUOYANCY AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUBSTANTIAL
WIND OR HAIL RISKS.  OVERNIGHT...A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EWD OVER SW KS/THE TX PANHANDLE AND S
PLAINS...AND WRN OK AS WAA INCREASES WITH A 35 KT LLJ.

HAIL MAY APPROACH 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
ACROSS WI...WHERE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IN ASSOCIATION WITH COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND EMBEDDED SPEED
MAXIMA ROTATING SWD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY.

..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 07/29/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 290617
SWODY3
SPC AC 290616

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY...WITH GENERAL
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. ELSEWHERE...A FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
CNTRL TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS ONGOING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SLY FLOW OFF
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.

...NRN NEW ENGLAND...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THU AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT. THE COOL PROFILES ALOFT ALONG WITH MID 50S BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO AROUND 500 J/KG MUCAPE. STRONG...MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL EXIST FAVORING PERHAPS LOW-TOPPED
SPLITTING CELLS OR SMALL BOWS. HAIL WILL BE A DISTINCT THREAT...AND
THE STRONG MEAN FLOW SUGGESTS A FEW DAMAGING WIND REPORTS MAY ALSO
OCCUR BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A SLIGHT.

..JEWELL.. 07/29/2014





000
ACUS03 KWNS 290617
SWODY3
SPC AC 290616

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY...WITH GENERAL
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS. ELSEWHERE...A FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
CNTRL TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WITH CLUSTERS OF STORMS ONGOING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SLY FLOW OFF
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.

...NRN NEW ENGLAND...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING
RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THU AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT. THE COOL PROFILES ALOFT ALONG WITH MID 50S BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO AROUND 500 J/KG MUCAPE. STRONG...MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL EXIST FAVORING PERHAPS LOW-TOPPED
SPLITTING CELLS OR SMALL BOWS. HAIL WILL BE A DISTINCT THREAT...AND
THE STRONG MEAN FLOW SUGGESTS A FEW DAMAGING WIND REPORTS MAY ALSO
OCCUR BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A SLIGHT.

..JEWELL.. 07/29/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 290532
SWODY1
SPC AC 290530

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TODAY WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES.  A WEAK MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION OVER WY WILL ENACT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OVER
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY AND THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
INTERSECT A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CO HIGH PLAINS.

...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.  STRONG EARLY
DAY HEATING INVOF THE FRONT RANGE AND SERN WY AND A WEAK CAP WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION BY MIDDAY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SPREADING EWD INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL TO MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH 500-1500
J/KG MLCAPE.  DESPITE MODEST SPEED SHEAR...A DEEPLY VEERING PROFILE
WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED BUT VIGOROUS STORMS IN WY/CO.
WEAKER SHEAR IN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER HIGH IN NM MAY RESULT IN A
FEW STRONGER PULSATING STORMS PERHAPS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED
HAIL/WIND RISK.  THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL
SERVE TO WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING AS WARM ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS AND STORM COVERAGE INCREASES OVERNIGHT ACROSS ERN CO
INTO KS/OK.

...WI...
DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S.  COOL TEMPS ALOFT /AOB -16 DEG C AT H5/ COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE
NEAR 500 J/KG. SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION SHOULD FORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A BELT OF 30-35 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. OVERALL
SETUP WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO GENERALLY SMALL HAIL...BUT MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS.

..SMITH/DEAN.. 07/29/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 290532
SWODY1
SPC AC 290530

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TODAY WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE ERN U.S. AND A RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES.  A WEAK MID LEVEL
PERTURBATION OVER WY WILL ENACT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM OVER
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY AND THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
INTERSECT A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CO HIGH PLAINS.

...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.  STRONG EARLY
DAY HEATING INVOF THE FRONT RANGE AND SERN WY AND A WEAK CAP WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION BY MIDDAY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SPREADING EWD INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL TO MODERATE BUOYANCY WITH 500-1500
J/KG MLCAPE.  DESPITE MODEST SPEED SHEAR...A DEEPLY VEERING PROFILE
WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED BUT VIGOROUS STORMS IN WY/CO.
WEAKER SHEAR IN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER HIGH IN NM MAY RESULT IN A
FEW STRONGER PULSATING STORMS PERHAPS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED
HAIL/WIND RISK.  THE LOSS OF HEATING AND MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL
SERVE TO WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING AS WARM ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS AND STORM COVERAGE INCREASES OVERNIGHT ACROSS ERN CO
INTO KS/OK.

...WI...
DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN TEMPS WARMING INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S.  COOL TEMPS ALOFT /AOB -16 DEG C AT H5/ COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY WITH MLCAPE
NEAR 500 J/KG. SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION SHOULD FORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A BELT OF 30-35 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. OVERALL
SETUP WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO GENERALLY SMALL HAIL...BUT MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS.

..SMITH/DEAN.. 07/29/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 290507
SWODY2
SPC AC 290506

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND NORTH TEXAS WITH PERHAPS A MARGINAL WIND OR HAIL THREAT. OTHER
DAYTIME STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW/COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS STATIONARY
ACROSS JAMES BAY...RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG DIURNAL STORMS FROM OH
INTO WRN NY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ROUGHLY FROM THE CNTRL AND NRN
ROCKIES EWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BUT SELY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HERE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN
TX...WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND STORMS PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.

...SRN PLAINS...
THE PRESENCE OF A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WED MORNING WILL AID CLUSTERS OF
STORMS FROM WRN KS INTO NWRN OK EARLY...AND WARM ADVECTION AROUND
850 MB WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY BE
WEAK...BUT A LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE STORMS AS WELL AS MODESTLY
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. IN ADDITION...HEATING S OF THE BOUNDARY
INTO TX WILL STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH COULD SUPPORT
OUTFLOW WINDS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

...OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL STRETCH FROM OH INTO NY WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -15 TO -18
C. SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. SOME OF THE STRONGEST CORES MAY HAVE HAIL APPROACHING 1 INCH
DIAMETER BEFORE DWINDLING DURING THE EVENING.

..JEWELL.. 07/29/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 290507
SWODY2
SPC AC 290506

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND NORTH TEXAS WITH PERHAPS A MARGINAL WIND OR HAIL THREAT. OTHER
DAYTIME STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW/COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS STATIONARY
ACROSS JAMES BAY...RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG DIURNAL STORMS FROM OH
INTO WRN NY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ROUGHLY FROM THE CNTRL AND NRN
ROCKIES EWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BUT SELY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HERE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN
TX...WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND STORMS PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.

...SRN PLAINS...
THE PRESENCE OF A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WED MORNING WILL AID CLUSTERS OF
STORMS FROM WRN KS INTO NWRN OK EARLY...AND WARM ADVECTION AROUND
850 MB WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY BE
WEAK...BUT A LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE STORMS AS WELL AS MODESTLY
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. IN ADDITION...HEATING S OF THE BOUNDARY
INTO TX WILL STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH COULD SUPPORT
OUTFLOW WINDS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

...OH VALLEY INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL STRETCH FROM OH INTO NY WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -15 TO -18
C. SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME MAY CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL. SOME OF THE STRONGEST CORES MAY HAVE HAIL APPROACHING 1 INCH
DIAMETER BEFORE DWINDLING DURING THE EVENING.

..JEWELL.. 07/29/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 290049
SWODY1
SPC AC 290048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY HAZARD...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOME SOUTHEAST STATES AND PARTS OF MAINE.

...COASTAL SC SWWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE NC OUTER BANKS ARCING SWWD INTO SRN
AL/MS MONDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SEWD AND MOVE INTO
THE GULF STREAM AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.  DESPITE DIURNAL
COOLING...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY POSE A LOCALIZED SEVERE RISK FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE FRONT AND/OR NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WEAKEN STORMS.

...MAINE...
A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE ERN
U.S. TROUGH...WILL MOVE FROM THE VT/NH VICINITY THIS EVENING TO THE
MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY BY DAWN.  00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
PLACES A LOW NEAR THE NH/MAINE BORDER AND THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE NWD THROUGH MAINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  A SEASONABLY
MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS.

..SMITH.. 07/29/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 290049
SWODY1
SPC AC 290048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
PRIMARY HAZARD...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOME SOUTHEAST STATES AND PARTS OF MAINE.

...COASTAL SC SWWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE NC OUTER BANKS ARCING SWWD INTO SRN
AL/MS MONDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SEWD AND MOVE INTO
THE GULF STREAM AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.  DESPITE DIURNAL
COOLING...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY POSE A LOCALIZED SEVERE RISK FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE FRONT AND/OR NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WEAKEN STORMS.

...MAINE...
A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE ERN
U.S. TROUGH...WILL MOVE FROM THE VT/NH VICINITY THIS EVENING TO THE
MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY BY DAWN.  00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
PLACES A LOW NEAR THE NH/MAINE BORDER AND THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE NWD THROUGH MAINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  A SEASONABLY
MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS.

..SMITH.. 07/29/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 282339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282338
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-290115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452...

VALID 282338Z - 290115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ONGOING SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
EXTENSION OF WW 452 MAY BECOME NECESSARY BEFORE 00Z ACROSS SRN
MAINE...BUT ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...WELL-ORGANIZED STORMS ARE ONGOING AT 2330Z ACROSS THE
ERN PART OF WW 452...WITH A LONG-LIVED CELL NOTED IN OXFORD CO.
MAINE AND A BOWING SEGMENT APPROACHING PWM. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE STRONG VORT MAX MOVING INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH
ERN EXTENT...WHERE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BECOMES QUITE MINIMAL
IN AN AREA DOMINATED BY LOW CLOUDINESS AND COOL SELY FLOW OFF OF THE
ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...BUT SPATIAL/TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF WW 452 MAY BE
NECESSARY BEFORE 00Z TO COVER THE REMAINING SHORT-TERM THREAT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MAINE. T

..DEAN.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON   41857213 43257091 44567089 45576972 45906868 45526806
            44196911 43336998 42427073 41927107 41577170 41857213






000
ACUS11 KWNS 282339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282338
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-290115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452...

VALID 282338Z - 290115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ONGOING SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
EXTENSION OF WW 452 MAY BECOME NECESSARY BEFORE 00Z ACROSS SRN
MAINE...BUT ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...WELL-ORGANIZED STORMS ARE ONGOING AT 2330Z ACROSS THE
ERN PART OF WW 452...WITH A LONG-LIVED CELL NOTED IN OXFORD CO.
MAINE AND A BOWING SEGMENT APPROACHING PWM. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE STRONG VORT MAX MOVING INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH
ERN EXTENT...WHERE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BECOMES QUITE MINIMAL
IN AN AREA DOMINATED BY LOW CLOUDINESS AND COOL SELY FLOW OFF OF THE
ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...BUT SPATIAL/TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF WW 452 MAY BE
NECESSARY BEFORE 00Z TO COVER THE REMAINING SHORT-TERM THREAT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MAINE. T

..DEAN.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON   41857213 43257091 44567089 45576972 45906868 45526806
            44196911 43336998 42427073 41927107 41577170 41857213





000
ACUS11 KWNS 282339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282338
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-290115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452...

VALID 282338Z - 290115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ONGOING SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
EXTENSION OF WW 452 MAY BECOME NECESSARY BEFORE 00Z ACROSS SRN
MAINE...BUT ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...WELL-ORGANIZED STORMS ARE ONGOING AT 2330Z ACROSS THE
ERN PART OF WW 452...WITH A LONG-LIVED CELL NOTED IN OXFORD CO.
MAINE AND A BOWING SEGMENT APPROACHING PWM. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE STRONG VORT MAX MOVING INTO
NRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH
ERN EXTENT...WHERE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BECOMES QUITE MINIMAL
IN AN AREA DOMINATED BY LOW CLOUDINESS AND COOL SELY FLOW OFF OF THE
ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...BUT SPATIAL/TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF WW 452 MAY BE
NECESSARY BEFORE 00Z TO COVER THE REMAINING SHORT-TERM THREAT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MAINE. T

..DEAN.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON   41857213 43257091 44567089 45576972 45906868 45526806
            44196911 43336998 42427073 41927107 41577170 41857213





000
ACUS11 KWNS 282337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282336
SCZ000-GAZ000-290100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1499
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN INTO CNTRL/SRN GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453...

VALID 282336Z - 290100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH ONE OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...IN GENERAL APPEARS TO BE
DECREASING.  THE NEED FOR A NEW WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT OF CONVERGENCE WITHIN A ZONE
ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.  THIS MAY BE AIDED BY
WEAK TO MODEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND VERTICAL SHEAR
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING
PROGRESSING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS
ALONG THE LINE...SOUTH OF MACON GA EASTWARD TOWARD THE CHARLESTON SC
AREA... COULD BRIEFLY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH THE 00-01Z
TIME FRAME.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH PRECEDING CONVECTION AND INLAND
ADVANCING SEA BREEZES...ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS
APPEARS LIMITED.  FURTHERMORE...WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING SEEMS TO
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH.

..KERR.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...FFC...

LAT...LON   32248456 32278388 32378294 32518251 32538190 32528118
            33197981 33427917 33387887 32408040 32058160 32088203
            31858317 32068483 32248456






000
ACUS01 KWNS 282000
SWODY1
SPC AC 281958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND
AND THE SOUTHEAST.

...ERN CAROLINAS TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM THE S
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S HAVE YIELDED A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG. VEERED
SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR TO
GREATER VERTICAL SHEAR...IN ADDITION TO PREDOMINATELY PARALLEL
ORIENTATION OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE TRIMMED WRN EXTENT OF SLIGHT RISK
FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST.

...NEW ENGLAND...
CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COMPACT UPPER LOW AND
SHOULD EVOLVE NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. THIS TYPE OF
MODE SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. HAVE MADE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO ALIGN SLIGHT RISK WITH THE
EXPECTED SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK INTO WRN ME...WITH RAPID WEAKENING OF
THE THREAT STILL ANTICIPATED JUST AFTER SUNSET.

..GRAMS.. 07/28/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

...EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN MS/AL...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NC INTO THE
GULF COAST STATES.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING WILL
YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN NC/SC INTO PARTS OF GA/AL/MS.  THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NEAR SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM
GA NORTHEASTWARD...WHERE ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES ARE
POSSIBLE.  THIS AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  FARTHER WESTWARD...VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAKER...BUT POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR A ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

...NEW ENGLAND...
A COMPACT UPPER LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NY.  A MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT IS ROTATING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...WHERE SOME
DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON.  RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL PROMOTE CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  THE
THREAT SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 282000
SWODY1
SPC AC 281958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND
AND THE SOUTHEAST.

...ERN CAROLINAS TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM THE S
ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S HAVE YIELDED A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG. VEERED
SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR TO
GREATER VERTICAL SHEAR...IN ADDITION TO PREDOMINATELY PARALLEL
ORIENTATION OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE TRIMMED WRN EXTENT OF SLIGHT RISK
FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST.

...NEW ENGLAND...
CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COMPACT UPPER LOW AND
SHOULD EVOLVE NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. THIS TYPE OF
MODE SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. HAVE MADE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO ALIGN SLIGHT RISK WITH THE
EXPECTED SURFACE CYCLONE TRACK INTO WRN ME...WITH RAPID WEAKENING OF
THE THREAT STILL ANTICIPATED JUST AFTER SUNSET.

..GRAMS.. 07/28/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

...EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN MS/AL...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NC INTO THE
GULF COAST STATES.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING WILL
YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN NC/SC INTO PARTS OF GA/AL/MS.  THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NEAR SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM
GA NORTHEASTWARD...WHERE ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES ARE
POSSIBLE.  THIS AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  FARTHER WESTWARD...VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAKER...BUT POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR A ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

...NEW ENGLAND...
A COMPACT UPPER LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NY.  A MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT IS ROTATING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...WHERE SOME
DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON.  RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL PROMOTE CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  THE
THREAT SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.






000
ACUS11 KWNS 281828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281827
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-282000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1498
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NC/SRN AND ERN SC/CENTRAL GA/PARTS OF SRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281827Z - 282000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASING STORM COVERAGE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE
OF LOW-END SEVERE RISK MAY NECESSITATE WW ISSUANCE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW A
MOIST/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN ENE-WSW COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM SRN/ERN NC TO SRN MS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON.  WITH MODERATE/ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW ORGANIZED/ESEWD-MOVING STORM
CLUSTERS SHOULD EVOLVE WITH TIME -- POSING SOME RISK FOR MARGINAL
HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION ACROSS THE REGION -- WHERE ANY CONCENTRATION OF STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD REQUIRE WW CONSIDERATION.

..GOSS/HART.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   33937772 33137930 31928099 31368623 31678776 32068828
            33008503 33368186 34417814 33937772





000
ACUS11 KWNS 281828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281827
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-282000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1498
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NC/SRN AND ERN SC/CENTRAL GA/PARTS OF SRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281827Z - 282000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASING STORM COVERAGE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE
OF LOW-END SEVERE RISK MAY NECESSITATE WW ISSUANCE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW A
MOIST/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN ENE-WSW COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM SRN/ERN NC TO SRN MS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON.  WITH MODERATE/ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW ORGANIZED/ESEWD-MOVING STORM
CLUSTERS SHOULD EVOLVE WITH TIME -- POSING SOME RISK FOR MARGINAL
HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION ACROSS THE REGION -- WHERE ANY CONCENTRATION OF STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD REQUIRE WW CONSIDERATION.

..GOSS/HART.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   33937772 33137930 31928099 31368623 31678776 32068828
            33008503 33368186 34417814 33937772






000
ACUS11 KWNS 281828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281827
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-282000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1498
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NC/SRN AND ERN SC/CENTRAL GA/PARTS OF SRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281827Z - 282000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASING STORM COVERAGE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE
OF LOW-END SEVERE RISK MAY NECESSITATE WW ISSUANCE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW A
MOIST/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD OF AN ENE-WSW COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM SRN/ERN NC TO SRN MS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN
DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON.  WITH MODERATE/ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW ORGANIZED/ESEWD-MOVING STORM
CLUSTERS SHOULD EVOLVE WITH TIME -- POSING SOME RISK FOR MARGINAL
HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION ACROSS THE REGION -- WHERE ANY CONCENTRATION OF STRONGER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD REQUIRE WW CONSIDERATION.

..GOSS/HART.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   33937772 33137930 31928099 31368623 31678776 32068828
            33008503 33368186 34417814 33937772





000
ACUS11 KWNS 281737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281737
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-281830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281737Z - 281830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR/W OF THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NY WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG WIND
GUSTS...EVENTUALLY EXPANDING INTO WRN/SRN NEW ENGLAND...THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WW.

DISCUSSION...MODEST DIABATIC HEATING IS OCCURRING BENEATH COLD
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NY.
AS A RESULT...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST CORES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. ONE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GROWING/EXPANDING
CU FIELD. ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS AREA /INCLUDING PARTS OF CT/MA AND EVENTUALLY VT/NH/ AS A
WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NWD...AND IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /40 KT/ IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELL TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   41667397 42197470 43027482 43897310 44547263 45067168
            45257095 44907022 44376989 43527028 41947256 41857284
            41737373 41667397





000
ACUS11 KWNS 281737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281737
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-281830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281737Z - 281830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR/W OF THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NY WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG WIND
GUSTS...EVENTUALLY EXPANDING INTO WRN/SRN NEW ENGLAND...THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WW.

DISCUSSION...MODEST DIABATIC HEATING IS OCCURRING BENEATH COLD
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NY.
AS A RESULT...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST CORES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. ONE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GROWING/EXPANDING
CU FIELD. ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS AREA /INCLUDING PARTS OF CT/MA AND EVENTUALLY VT/NH/ AS A
WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NWD...AND IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /40 KT/ IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELL TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   41667397 42197470 43027482 43897310 44547263 45067168
            45257095 44907022 44376989 43527028 41947256 41857284
            41737373 41667397






000
ACUS11 KWNS 281737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281737
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-281830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281737Z - 281830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING NEAR/W OF THE HUDSON VALLEY OF NY WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG WIND
GUSTS...EVENTUALLY EXPANDING INTO WRN/SRN NEW ENGLAND...THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WW.

DISCUSSION...MODEST DIABATIC HEATING IS OCCURRING BENEATH COLD
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NY.
AS A RESULT...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST CORES
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL. ONE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WRN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GROWING/EXPANDING
CU FIELD. ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS AREA /INCLUDING PARTS OF CT/MA AND EVENTUALLY VT/NH/ AS A
WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NWD...AND IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /40 KT/ IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELL TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   41667397 42197470 43027482 43897310 44547263 45067168
            45257095 44907022 44376989 43527028 41947256 41857284
            41737373 41667397





000
ACUS02 KWNS 281728
SWODY2
SPC AC 281727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY
SWD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
WEAK RIDGE EMANATING TOWARD THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED IMPULSES SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST
AND HIGH PLAINS.

...S-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
WITH A LEE SURFACE TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL YIELD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS SHOULD YIELD WEAK BUOYANCY...BUT MID/HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE MODEST. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE WEAK ACROSS MOST OF
THE HIGH PLAINS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT A
CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED IMPULSE MAY AID IN A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
WLYS /CENTERED OVER THE RATON MESA/. GRADUAL EWD-MOVING CLUSTERS MAY
POSE A RISK FOR A COUPLE MARGINAL WIND/HAIL EVENTS.

...WRN GREAT LAKES...
A BELT OF 30-35 KT N/NWLYS SHOULD BE JUXTAPOSED WITH -16 TO -18 DEG
C TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND BE SUFFICIENT FOR GENERATING WEAK BUOYANCY
WITH MLCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG. WITH MINIMAL MLCIN...SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION SHOULD FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SETUP WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO GENERALLY SMALL HAIL...BUT A COUPLE SHORT-LIVED
UPDRAFTS MIGHT PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 07/28/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 281728
SWODY2
SPC AC 281727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES STATES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY
SWD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BE
CENTERED ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
WEAK RIDGE EMANATING TOWARD THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED IMPULSES SHOULD DRIFT ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST
AND HIGH PLAINS.

...S-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
WITH A LEE SURFACE TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL YIELD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS SHOULD YIELD WEAK BUOYANCY...BUT MID/HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE MODEST. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE WEAK ACROSS MOST OF
THE HIGH PLAINS...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT A
CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED IMPULSE MAY AID IN A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
WLYS /CENTERED OVER THE RATON MESA/. GRADUAL EWD-MOVING CLUSTERS MAY
POSE A RISK FOR A COUPLE MARGINAL WIND/HAIL EVENTS.

...WRN GREAT LAKES...
A BELT OF 30-35 KT N/NWLYS SHOULD BE JUXTAPOSED WITH -16 TO -18 DEG
C TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND BE SUFFICIENT FOR GENERATING WEAK BUOYANCY
WITH MLCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG. WITH MINIMAL MLCIN...SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION SHOULD FORM BY LATE AFTERNOON. OVERALL SETUP WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO GENERALLY SMALL HAIL...BUT A COUPLE SHORT-LIVED
UPDRAFTS MIGHT PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 07/28/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 281622
SWODY1
SPC AC 281621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS TO THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES.  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR TODAY
OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.

...EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN MS/AL...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NC INTO THE
GULF COAST STATES.  AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING WILL
YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN NC/SC INTO PARTS OF GA/AL/MS.  THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NEAR SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER STRONG WINDS ALOFT FROM
GA NORTHEASTWARD...WHERE ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES ARE
POSSIBLE.  THIS AREA IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  FARTHER WESTWARD...VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAKER...BUT POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR A ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

...NEW ENGLAND...
A COMPACT UPPER LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NY.  A MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT IS ROTATING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...WHERE SOME
DAYTIME HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON.  RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL PROMOTE CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  THE
THREAT SHOULD END RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

..HART/ROGERS.. 07/28/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 281227
SWODY1
SPC AC 281225

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS TO THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES.  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR TODAY
OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS TO THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NC COAST BY ABOUT MID
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE SWD TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR ALONG THE
GULF COAST TONIGHT.  LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY
AUGMENTED BY LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN A BROKEN BAND ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  MODERATE-STRONG BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT...WHILE DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY WITH SWD EXTENT FROM NC.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS WITH DOWNBURSTS...GIVEN BOTH
LARGE BUOYANCY AND HIGH PW VALUES TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
LOADING...AND LARGE DCAPE FOR STRONG RAIN-COOLED DOWNDRAFTS.  THE
GREATER RISK FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER WILL BE ACROSS COASTAL NC WHERE MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL APPROACH
50 KT.

...NEW ENGLAND TODAY...
INITIAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NWD/NEWD OVER NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA AND A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THOUGH BUOYANCY IS LIMITED...VERTICAL SHEAR AND
MOIST PROFILES COULD SUPPORT WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS THIS MORNING.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT EWD OVER
PA/NY...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS SLOWLY NEWD FROM
NY TO NRN NEW ENGLAND...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT LIKEWISE
PROGRESSES EWD.  ADDITIONAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WHERE ASCENT
WILL BE FOCUSED.  A FEW CLOUD BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE EDGE OF
THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT...SUCH THAT SOME SURFACE HEATING COULD BOOST
MLCAPE TO 750-1500 J/KG.  MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AT
LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT.  SINCE THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL REMAIN REMOVED TO THE N OF THE STRONGER BUOYANCY AND
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE STEEP...THE OVERALL SEVERE STORM RISK SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL.

..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 07/28/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 281227
SWODY1
SPC AC 281225

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS TO THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES.  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR TODAY
OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS TO THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NC COAST BY ABOUT MID
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE SWD TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR ALONG THE
GULF COAST TONIGHT.  LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY
AUGMENTED BY LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN A BROKEN BAND ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  MODERATE-STRONG BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT...WHILE DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY WITH SWD EXTENT FROM NC.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS WITH DOWNBURSTS...GIVEN BOTH
LARGE BUOYANCY AND HIGH PW VALUES TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
LOADING...AND LARGE DCAPE FOR STRONG RAIN-COOLED DOWNDRAFTS.  THE
GREATER RISK FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER WILL BE ACROSS COASTAL NC WHERE MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL APPROACH
50 KT.

...NEW ENGLAND TODAY...
INITIAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NWD/NEWD OVER NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA AND A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THOUGH BUOYANCY IS LIMITED...VERTICAL SHEAR AND
MOIST PROFILES COULD SUPPORT WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS THIS MORNING.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT EWD OVER
PA/NY...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS SLOWLY NEWD FROM
NY TO NRN NEW ENGLAND...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT LIKEWISE
PROGRESSES EWD.  ADDITIONAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WHERE ASCENT
WILL BE FOCUSED.  A FEW CLOUD BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE EDGE OF
THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT...SUCH THAT SOME SURFACE HEATING COULD BOOST
MLCAPE TO 750-1500 J/KG.  MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AT
LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT.  SINCE THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL REMAIN REMOVED TO THE N OF THE STRONGER BUOYANCY AND
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE STEEP...THE OVERALL SEVERE STORM RISK SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL.

..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 07/28/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 280825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280824
RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-281030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN LONG ISLAND...AND COASTAL AREAS OF
SERN CT/SRN RI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 280824Z - 281030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS /MAINLY LESS THAN 50 KT/ WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING AS THE NRN EXTENT OF
A LINE OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN LONG ISLAND...AND
PERHAPS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST OF SERN CT AND RI.  LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITY PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN OVERNIGHT MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE
OF TSTMS HAD MOVED OFF THE NJ COAST...AND WAS TRACKING ENEWD AT
30-35 KT ACROSS WRN INTO CENTRAL LONG ISLAND...WITH THE SRN EXTENT
OF THIS LINE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS /60 E ACY/.  SURFACE DEW
POINTS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE LOWER 70S ARE HELPING TO OFFSET
SOMEWHAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION.  HOWEVER...TIME OF DAY
AND THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN
GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY.  STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS
FROM DELMARVA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER OH
VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA.  WSR-88D VAD AT OKX SHOWED VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN THE
LOWEST 0.25-0.5 KM ARL...AND BACKING WINDS BETWEEN 0.5 KM TO AROUND
1 KM ARL.

HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT
LAKES CLOSED LOW/TROUGH AND INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS LONG ISLAND INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND...AND MAINTAIN SOME STORM ORGANIZATION.  THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW...GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON   40777310 40967298 41237273 41417154 41447121 41077084
            40507110 40277225 40327299 40777310






000
ACUS11 KWNS 280825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280824
RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-281030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN LONG ISLAND...AND COASTAL AREAS OF
SERN CT/SRN RI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 280824Z - 281030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS /MAINLY LESS THAN 50 KT/ WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING AS THE NRN EXTENT OF
A LINE OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN LONG ISLAND...AND
PERHAPS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST OF SERN CT AND RI.  LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITY PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN OVERNIGHT MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE
OF TSTMS HAD MOVED OFF THE NJ COAST...AND WAS TRACKING ENEWD AT
30-35 KT ACROSS WRN INTO CENTRAL LONG ISLAND...WITH THE SRN EXTENT
OF THIS LINE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS /60 E ACY/.  SURFACE DEW
POINTS BEING MAINTAINED IN THE LOWER 70S ARE HELPING TO OFFSET
SOMEWHAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION.  HOWEVER...TIME OF DAY
AND THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN
GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY.  STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS
FROM DELMARVA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER OH
VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA.  WSR-88D VAD AT OKX SHOWED VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN THE
LOWEST 0.25-0.5 KM ARL...AND BACKING WINDS BETWEEN 0.5 KM TO AROUND
1 KM ARL.

HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT
LAKES CLOSED LOW/TROUGH AND INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS LONG ISLAND INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND...AND MAINTAIN SOME STORM ORGANIZATION.  THE OVERALL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW...GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON   40777310 40967298 41237273 41417154 41447121 41077084
            40507110 40277225 40327299 40777310





000
ACUS03 KWNS 280601
SWODY3
SPC AC 280600

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN STATES...BUT SEVERE WEATHER
IS UNLIKELY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE ERN CONUS
WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...BECOMING STATIONARY
NEAR THE RED RIVER. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST ACROSS WRN TX WITH
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM WRN KS INTO
OK. SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS WILL OCCUR BENEATH THE COOL PROFILES
ALOFT FROM THE OH VALLEY NEWD INTO NY WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.

...SRN PLAINS...
CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS WRN KS INTO
OK...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR MOVING NWD
OUT OF TX. INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK BUT STRONG HEATING S
OF THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS THE STORMS
DEVELOP SEWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX.

..JEWELL.. 07/28/2014





000
ACUS03 KWNS 280601
SWODY3
SPC AC 280600

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN STATES...BUT SEVERE WEATHER
IS UNLIKELY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS THE ERN CONUS
WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...BECOMING STATIONARY
NEAR THE RED RIVER. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIST ACROSS WRN TX WITH
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM WRN KS INTO
OK. SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS WILL OCCUR BENEATH THE COOL PROFILES
ALOFT FROM THE OH VALLEY NEWD INTO NY WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.

...SRN PLAINS...
CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS WRN KS INTO
OK...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR MOVING NWD
OUT OF TX. INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK BUT STRONG HEATING S
OF THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AS THE STORMS
DEVELOP SEWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX.

..JEWELL.. 07/28/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 280523
SWODY1
SPC AC 280521

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CAROLINAS EXTENDING WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO
OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.

...CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...
A RIBBON OF CYCLONIC 50+ KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STAYS FIXED
OVER THE ERN STATES.  A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS REACHING THE OUTER BANKS BY MID AFTERNOON WITH THE
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE FRONT NEAR S-CNTRL MS/AL AROUND PEAK
HEATING.  MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WEAKENED
CINH WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ISOLD-SCTD STORMS IN THE FORM OF
SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLD DMGG WIND
GUSTS.  THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONCURRENTLY WEAKEN OWING TO
DIURNAL STABILIZATION EFFECTS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

...NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST DEEPEN SLIGHTLY
AND MIGRATE NEWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD IN TANDEM
WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY DELAY/INHIBIT STRONG SURFACE HEATING BUT A MARITIME AIRMASS
/CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S/ AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARGINAL TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
/400-1200 J PER KG MLCAPE/.  GIVEN THAT THE PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY INTO HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
MORNING PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING...ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY.  A LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND STRENGTHENING
WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR
SEGMENTS POSING AN ISOLD THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS...PERHAPS A
TORNADO...AND LARGE HAIL.

..SMITH.. 07/28/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 280523
SWODY1
SPC AC 280521

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CAROLINAS EXTENDING WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO
OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.

...CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...
A RIBBON OF CYCLONIC 50+ KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STAYS FIXED
OVER THE ERN STATES.  A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS REACHING THE OUTER BANKS BY MID AFTERNOON WITH THE
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE FRONT NEAR S-CNTRL MS/AL AROUND PEAK
HEATING.  MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WEAKENED
CINH WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ISOLD-SCTD STORMS IN THE FORM OF
SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLD DMGG WIND
GUSTS.  THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONCURRENTLY WEAKEN OWING TO
DIURNAL STABILIZATION EFFECTS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

...NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST DEEPEN SLIGHTLY
AND MIGRATE NEWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD IN TANDEM
WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY DELAY/INHIBIT STRONG SURFACE HEATING BUT A MARITIME AIRMASS
/CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S/ AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARGINAL TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
/400-1200 J PER KG MLCAPE/.  GIVEN THAT THE PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY INTO HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
MORNING PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING...ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY.  A LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND STRENGTHENING
WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR
SEGMENTS POSING AN ISOLD THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS...PERHAPS A
TORNADO...AND LARGE HAIL.

..SMITH.. 07/28/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 280441
SWODY2
SPC AC 280440

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS ERN CANADA WITH BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN STATES BUT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD TO AN OLD FRONT FROM
NRN FL WWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO.

SELY WINDS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM TX INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST MARGINAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING FROM WY INTO CO AND NM DURING THE DAY
WITH A MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND THREAT.

COLD AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED DAYTIME STORM FROM WI INTO MI AND
NRN IL...SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTAIN AT LEAST SMALL HAIL.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWWD ACROSS
ERN CO WITH SELY UPSLOPE FLOW. HEATING AND 50S TO LOWER 60S F
DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK BUT
STRONG DIRECTION SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WILL AID IN STORM LONGEVITY.
STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING WITH A
NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WITH MARGINAL WIND
AND HEAVY RAIN LIKELY.

...WI...NRN IL...MI...
DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AROUND
500 J/KG MLCAPE. THE STRONG HEATING AND LACK OF CIN WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD CONGESTUS WITH A FEW NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENCE BANDS AND
LAKE BREEZES LOCALLY ENHANCING CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR MAY EVEN FAVOR A FEW LONG-LIVED CORES. OVERALL COVERAGE OF
SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...BUT SUB-SEVERE HAIL COULD
OCCUR WITH MANY OF THE CELLS.

...FL...
HEATING ALONG WITH LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE
AIR MASS DURING THE DAY S OF THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS NRN FL. WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD YIELD A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT. IN ADDITION...RELATIVELY DRY AIR ABOVE THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MITIGATE STORM
STRENGTH AS WELL.

..JEWELL.. 07/28/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 280441
SWODY2
SPC AC 280440

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS ERN CANADA WITH BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN STATES BUT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN. RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD TO AN OLD FRONT FROM
NRN FL WWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO.

SELY WINDS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM TX INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST MARGINAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING FROM WY INTO CO AND NM DURING THE DAY
WITH A MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND THREAT.

COLD AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED DAYTIME STORM FROM WI INTO MI AND
NRN IL...SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTAIN AT LEAST SMALL HAIL.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWWD ACROSS
ERN CO WITH SELY UPSLOPE FLOW. HEATING AND 50S TO LOWER 60S F
DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK BUT
STRONG DIRECTION SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WILL AID IN STORM LONGEVITY.
STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING WITH A
NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WITH MARGINAL WIND
AND HEAVY RAIN LIKELY.

...WI...NRN IL...MI...
DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AROUND
500 J/KG MLCAPE. THE STRONG HEATING AND LACK OF CIN WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD CONGESTUS WITH A FEW NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENCE BANDS AND
LAKE BREEZES LOCALLY ENHANCING CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR MAY EVEN FAVOR A FEW LONG-LIVED CORES. OVERALL COVERAGE OF
SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...BUT SUB-SEVERE HAIL COULD
OCCUR WITH MANY OF THE CELLS.

...FL...
HEATING ALONG WITH LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE
AIR MASS DURING THE DAY S OF THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS NRN FL. WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD YIELD A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT. IN ADDITION...RELATIVELY DRY AIR ABOVE THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MITIGATE STORM
STRENGTH AS WELL.

..JEWELL.. 07/28/2014





000
ACUS11 KWNS 280433
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280432
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-280600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1495
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN TENNESSEE...WRN AND CNTRL N
CAROLINA...WRN S CAROLINA...NRN GEORGIA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 448...450...

VALID 280432Z - 280600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 448...450...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL
BE NEEDED TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER...TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...AN EVOLVING LINEAR BAND OF STORMS...FOCUSED WITHIN A
NARROW PRE-FRONTAL PLUME OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING...HAS BEEN
MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS IN THE PROCESS OF OVERSPREADING A BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR MASS SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACTED BY PRIOR CONVECTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
AND...AS THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION TAKES A MORE EASTWARD TURN TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...FORCING FOR CONTINUING SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH.  THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTED BY
RECENT RADAR DATA WHICH SUGGEST THAT WEAKENING TRENDS TO CONVECTION
MAY ALREADY BE UNDERWAY.  EMBEDDED WITHIN FAVORABLY SHEARED 40-50 KT
DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STORMS
ENCOUNTERING THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT
COULD STILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE 05-07Z TIME.  HOWEVER...LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL
OUTPUT...SUGGESTS PROBABILITIES FOR THIS ARE LOW.

..KERR.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   35608213 36008048 35647947 34098258 34238436 35248520
            35578400 35608213





000
ACUS11 KWNS 280433
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280432
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-280600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1495
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN TENNESSEE...WRN AND CNTRL N
CAROLINA...WRN S CAROLINA...NRN GEORGIA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 448...450...

VALID 280432Z - 280600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 448...450...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL
BE NEEDED TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER...TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...AN EVOLVING LINEAR BAND OF STORMS...FOCUSED WITHIN A
NARROW PRE-FRONTAL PLUME OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING...HAS BEEN
MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS IN THE PROCESS OF OVERSPREADING A BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR MASS SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACTED BY PRIOR CONVECTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
AND...AS THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION TAKES A MORE EASTWARD TURN TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...FORCING FOR CONTINUING SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH.  THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTED BY
RECENT RADAR DATA WHICH SUGGEST THAT WEAKENING TRENDS TO CONVECTION
MAY ALREADY BE UNDERWAY.  EMBEDDED WITHIN FAVORABLY SHEARED 40-50 KT
DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STORMS
ENCOUNTERING THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT
COULD STILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE 05-07Z TIME.  HOWEVER...LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL
OUTPUT...SUGGESTS PROBABILITIES FOR THIS ARE LOW.

..KERR.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   35608213 36008048 35647947 34098258 34238436 35248520
            35578400 35608213





000
ACUS11 KWNS 280433
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280432
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-280600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1495
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN TENNESSEE...WRN AND CNTRL N
CAROLINA...WRN S CAROLINA...NRN GEORGIA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 448...450...

VALID 280432Z - 280600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 448...450...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL
BE NEEDED TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  HOWEVER...TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...AN EVOLVING LINEAR BAND OF STORMS...FOCUSED WITHIN A
NARROW PRE-FRONTAL PLUME OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AIR...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING...HAS BEEN
MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS IN THE PROCESS OF OVERSPREADING A BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR MASS SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACTED BY PRIOR CONVECTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
AND...AS THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY REGION TAKES A MORE EASTWARD TURN TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...FORCING FOR CONTINUING SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH.  THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTED BY
RECENT RADAR DATA WHICH SUGGEST THAT WEAKENING TRENDS TO CONVECTION
MAY ALREADY BE UNDERWAY.  EMBEDDED WITHIN FAVORABLY SHEARED 40-50 KT
DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STORMS
ENCOUNTERING THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT
COULD STILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE 05-07Z TIME.  HOWEVER...LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL
OUTPUT...SUGGESTS PROBABILITIES FOR THIS ARE LOW.

..KERR.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON   35608213 36008048 35647947 34098258 34238436 35248520
            35578400 35608213






000
ACUS11 KWNS 280329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280328
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-280530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN NJ...DE...ERN MD AND CNTRL/ERN
VA...INCLUDING THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...AND N CNTRL NORTH CAROLINA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 280328Z - 280530Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
REGION.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY...AND THE NEED FOR ONE OR MORE SEVERE WEATHER
WATCHES.

DISCUSSION...AS A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
TURN EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND STRENGTHENING /50-70 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS LIKELY
TO NOSE EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALREADY BECOMING
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE PRESENCE
OF A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.  SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND BACKING OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
TO THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.  GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ONGOING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION...COULD GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATE/ORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT.  IF THIS
OCCURS...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CONSIDERABLE RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND...PERHAPS...A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES.

..KERR/EDWARDS.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   37847891 38087811 38597751 38827682 39057641 39407560
            39757505 39677457 38067559 36927678 35937846 35847970
            36188062 37007972 37847891





000
ACUS11 KWNS 280329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280328
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-280530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN NJ...DE...ERN MD AND CNTRL/ERN
VA...INCLUDING THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...AND N CNTRL NORTH CAROLINA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 280328Z - 280530Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
REGION.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY...AND THE NEED FOR ONE OR MORE SEVERE WEATHER
WATCHES.

DISCUSSION...AS A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
TURN EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND STRENGTHENING /50-70 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS LIKELY
TO NOSE EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALREADY BECOMING
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE PRESENCE
OF A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.  SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND BACKING OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
TO THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.  GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ONGOING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION...COULD GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATE/ORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT.  IF THIS
OCCURS...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CONSIDERABLE RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND...PERHAPS...A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES.

..KERR/EDWARDS.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   37847891 38087811 38597751 38827682 39057641 39407560
            39757505 39677457 38067559 36927678 35937846 35847970
            36188062 37007972 37847891





000
ACUS11 KWNS 280329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280328
NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-280530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN NJ...DE...ERN MD AND CNTRL/ERN
VA...INCLUDING THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...AND N CNTRL NORTH CAROLINA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 280328Z - 280530Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
REGION.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY...AND THE NEED FOR ONE OR MORE SEVERE WEATHER
WATCHES.

DISCUSSION...AS A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
TURN EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...INCREASINGLY
CYCLONIC AND STRENGTHENING /50-70 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS LIKELY
TO NOSE EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALREADY BECOMING
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE PRESENCE
OF A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.  SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND BACKING OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
TO THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.  GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...IT
DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ONGOING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION...COULD GRADUALLY
CONSOLIDATE/ORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT.  IF THIS
OCCURS...IT WOULD PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CONSIDERABLE RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND...PERHAPS...A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES.

..KERR/EDWARDS.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON   37847891 38087811 38597751 38827682 39057641 39407560
            39757505 39677457 38067559 36927678 35937846 35847970
            36188062 37007972 37847891






000
ACUS11 KWNS 280140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280139
NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-280245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1493
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0839 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN PA...NWRN NJ...NWRN
MD...EXTREME NRN VA...NERN WV PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449...

VALID 280139Z - 280245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

DISCUSSION...STG/SVR TSTMS WERE LOCATED IN SERN PA AND OVER HARDY
COUNTY WV...WITH LESS INTENSE TSTMS OVER CENTRAL/WRN PORTIONS OF THE
WW AS OF 0130Z. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS TENDED TO REDUCE
INSTABILITY SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN PORTION OF
WW...WITH AN AXIS OF WEAK-MOD MUCAPE PERSISTING ACROSS SRN/ERN
PORTIONS. WITH 35-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN PLACE...SUPERCELLS
AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NRN
OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER THIS EVENING...AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT/SFC LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN PA. TSTMS MAY AGAIN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE WW AND...DESPITE STABILIZATION
FROM EARLIER STORMS...MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET
THIS TREND AND RESULT IN AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STG/SVR TSTM THREAT.

..BUNTING.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON   41877882 41907590 41777536 41207465 40747483 40227493
            39847569 39787629 39787689 39457711 39317761 39267816
            39007843 38867868 38877883 39507893 39897908 40787878
            41877882





000
ACUS11 KWNS 280140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280139
NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-280245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1493
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0839 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN PA...NWRN NJ...NWRN
MD...EXTREME NRN VA...NERN WV PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449...

VALID 280139Z - 280245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

DISCUSSION...STG/SVR TSTMS WERE LOCATED IN SERN PA AND OVER HARDY
COUNTY WV...WITH LESS INTENSE TSTMS OVER CENTRAL/WRN PORTIONS OF THE
WW AS OF 0130Z. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS TENDED TO REDUCE
INSTABILITY SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN PORTION OF
WW...WITH AN AXIS OF WEAK-MOD MUCAPE PERSISTING ACROSS SRN/ERN
PORTIONS. WITH 35-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN PLACE...SUPERCELLS
AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NRN
OHIO VALLEY REGION LATER THIS EVENING...AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT/SFC LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN PA. TSTMS MAY AGAIN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE WW AND...DESPITE STABILIZATION
FROM EARLIER STORMS...MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OFFSET
THIS TREND AND RESULT IN AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STG/SVR TSTM THREAT.

..BUNTING.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON   41877882 41907590 41777536 41207465 40747483 40227493
            39847569 39787629 39787689 39457711 39317761 39267816
            39007843 38867868 38877883 39507893 39897908 40787878
            41877882





000
ACUS01 KWNS 280102
SWODY1
SPC AC 280100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY...TN VALLEY...SRN TO CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SERN
AZ...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.  ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS...AND THE THREAT FOR A FEW
TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING.

...ERN TN INTO NC/VA...
A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH/SPEED MAX WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN GREAT
LAKES EWD TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY MORNING AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THIS AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  EVENING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM MOISTURE RICH
LOW-LEVELS ARE IN PLACE...AND CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
70-72 DEG F RANGE.  DESPITE THE LOSS OF HEATING...MODERATE BUOYANCY
/1000-2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTAINING SOME
SEVERE THREAT INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  ALTHOUGH MODELS VARY
CONSIDERABLY REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO POSE AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND THREAT.
 PERHAPS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TORNADO RISK WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT E OF THE APPALACHIANS AS EFFECTIVE SRH INCREASES
CONCURRENT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS.

...LOWER TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY EWD TO PA AND SRN NY/NJ...
SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE AN IMPETUS FOR SCTD CLUSTERS OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING.  ISOLD OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL/DMGG
WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...CNTRL AND SERN AZ...
SCTD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING AND ARE MOVING FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN ERN AND CNTRL AZ WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS OF SERN AND CNTRL AZ.  STEEP LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE
EVENING RAOBS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FOSTER POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED DMGG WINDS WITH THE MORE INTENSE EVAPORATIVELY-COOLED
DOWNDRAFTS.  THE UPSCALE GROWTH OF COLD POOLS THIS EVENING MAY SERVE
TO ENHANCE OVERALL STORM LONGEVITY AND AUGMENT COVERAGE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS--LENDING AN UPGRADE TO CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.

...AR/OK AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING...
THE SWRN EXTENSION OF THE ERN U.S. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SWD
ACROSS THIS REGION TONIGHT.  A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
THETA-E ARE MAXIMIZED.  A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFT PULSES MAY RESULT IN
THE CHANCE FOR A LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HRS...BUT NOCTURNAL COOLING THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY SERVE TO WEAKEN
STORMS.

..SMITH.. 07/28/2014





000
ACUS11 KWNS 280049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280049
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-280215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OHIO...WRN PENNSYLVANIA...NRN WEST VIRGINIA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 447...

VALID 280049Z - 280215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 447 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A NEW WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR SHORTLY TO REPLACE AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF WW 447.

DISCUSSION...STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO TURN EAST
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION BETWEEN NOW AND
03-06Z.  THIS CONTRIBUTES TO SOME CONCERN WITH REGARD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING.  THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MOIST ENOUGH...BUT HAS BEEN
CONSIDERABLY IMPACTED BY PRIOR CONVECTION.  IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
WHETHER DESTABILIZATION ON A BROADER SCALE WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REQUIRING AN ADDITIONAL
WATCH.

..KERR.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   39058337 40148251 41258173 42118014 41927884 40817887
            38478173 39058337






000
ACUS11 KWNS 280049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280049
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-280215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OHIO...WRN PENNSYLVANIA...NRN WEST VIRGINIA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 447...

VALID 280049Z - 280215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 447 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A NEW WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR SHORTLY TO REPLACE AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF WW 447.

DISCUSSION...STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO TURN EAST
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION BETWEEN NOW AND
03-06Z.  THIS CONTRIBUTES TO SOME CONCERN WITH REGARD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING.  THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MOIST ENOUGH...BUT HAS BEEN
CONSIDERABLY IMPACTED BY PRIOR CONVECTION.  IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
WHETHER DESTABILIZATION ON A BROADER SCALE WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REQUIRING AN ADDITIONAL
WATCH.

..KERR.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   39058337 40148251 41258173 42118014 41927884 40817887
            38478173 39058337





000
ACUS11 KWNS 280049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280049
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-280215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OHIO...WRN PENNSYLVANIA...NRN WEST VIRGINIA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 447...

VALID 280049Z - 280215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 447 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A NEW WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR SHORTLY TO REPLACE AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF WW 447.

DISCUSSION...STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
AHEAD OF THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO TURN EAST
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION BETWEEN NOW AND
03-06Z.  THIS CONTRIBUTES TO SOME CONCERN WITH REGARD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING.  THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MOIST ENOUGH...BUT HAS BEEN
CONSIDERABLY IMPACTED BY PRIOR CONVECTION.  IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
WHETHER DESTABILIZATION ON A BROADER SCALE WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REQUIRING AN ADDITIONAL
WATCH.

..KERR.. 07/28/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   39058337 40148251 41258173 42118014 41927884 40817887
            38478173 39058337





000
ACUS11 KWNS 272329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272328
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-280100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1491
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KY INTO SWRN VA...NERN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 445...

VALID 272328Z - 280100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 445 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF WATCH 445 FOR
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEYOND 00Z.  A NEW WW APPEARS TO BE
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...PERSISTS WHILE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  AT THE SAME TIME...NEW DISCRETE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER
SURFACE HEATING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
ADDITIONAL...SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTH
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW BEGINNING TO TURN
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER/MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE KENTUCKY PORTION
OF WW 445 APPEARS UNLIKELY.  BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RELATIVELY STEEP...AND SEASONABLY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATELY LARGE CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF
VERTICAL SHEAR MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE FOR AT LEAST
A FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND 00Z.

..KERR/EDWARDS.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   38248515 38508409 37908283 36628171 35788329 35988496
            36528631 36958684 38248515





000
ACUS11 KWNS 272329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272328
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-280100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1491
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KY INTO SWRN VA...NERN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 445...

VALID 272328Z - 280100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 445 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF WATCH 445 FOR
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEYOND 00Z.  A NEW WW APPEARS TO BE
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...PERSISTS WHILE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  AT THE SAME TIME...NEW DISCRETE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER
SURFACE HEATING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
ADDITIONAL...SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTH
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW BEGINNING TO TURN
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER/MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE KENTUCKY PORTION
OF WW 445 APPEARS UNLIKELY.  BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RELATIVELY STEEP...AND SEASONABLY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATELY LARGE CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF
VERTICAL SHEAR MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE FOR AT LEAST
A FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND 00Z.

..KERR/EDWARDS.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   38248515 38508409 37908283 36628171 35788329 35988496
            36528631 36958684 38248515






000
ACUS11 KWNS 272329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272328
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-280100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1491
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KY INTO SWRN VA...NERN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 445...

VALID 272328Z - 280100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 445 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF WATCH 445 FOR
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS BEYOND 00Z.  A NEW WW APPEARS TO BE
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...PERSISTS WHILE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  AT THE SAME TIME...NEW DISCRETE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER
SURFACE HEATING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
ADDITIONAL...SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTH
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER...MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW BEGINNING TO TURN
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER/MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...
FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE KENTUCKY PORTION
OF WW 445 APPEARS UNLIKELY.  BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
RELATIVELY STEEP...AND SEASONABLY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATELY LARGE CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF
VERTICAL SHEAR MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.  THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE FOR AT LEAST
A FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND 00Z.

..KERR/EDWARDS.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   38248515 38508409 37908283 36628171 35788329 35988496
            36528631 36958684 38248515





000
ACUS11 KWNS 272309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272308
NMZ000-AZZ000-280015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1490
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272308Z - 280015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG/DAMAGING
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH A WATCH IS UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING
NWD ACROSS SWRN NM...IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
NWWD FROM CHIHUAHUA. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING/REDUCTION IN CINH HAS
ALLOWED SCATTERED STG/OCNLY SVR TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SFC TROUGH WITH MORE ISOLD DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CHIHUAHUA DISTURBANCE AND
CONTINUED HEATING...A GENERAL INCREASE TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.
MID LEVEL FLOW OF AROUND 15-20 KTS AND MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
WILL PROMOTE MULTICELL STORM ORGANIZATION...AND A DEEP MIXED LAYER
COMBINED WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK
FOR DAMAGING GUSTS. ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT LIKELY IN THE SHORT
TERM...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..BUNTING/EDWARDS.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON   32591218 32991058 33130982 33090925 33020824 32810804
            32430789 32020802 31800807 31770831 31440832 31350857
            31270909 31371073 31581175 31941235 32591218






000
ACUS11 KWNS 272309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272308
NMZ000-AZZ000-280015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1490
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272308Z - 280015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG/DAMAGING
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH A WATCH IS UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING
NWD ACROSS SWRN NM...IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
NWWD FROM CHIHUAHUA. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING/REDUCTION IN CINH HAS
ALLOWED SCATTERED STG/OCNLY SVR TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SFC TROUGH WITH MORE ISOLD DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CHIHUAHUA DISTURBANCE AND
CONTINUED HEATING...A GENERAL INCREASE TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.
MID LEVEL FLOW OF AROUND 15-20 KTS AND MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
WILL PROMOTE MULTICELL STORM ORGANIZATION...AND A DEEP MIXED LAYER
COMBINED WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK
FOR DAMAGING GUSTS. ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT LIKELY IN THE SHORT
TERM...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..BUNTING/EDWARDS.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON   32591218 32991058 33130982 33090925 33020824 32810804
            32430789 32020802 31800807 31770831 31440832 31350857
            31270909 31371073 31581175 31941235 32591218





000
ACUS11 KWNS 272309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272308
NMZ000-AZZ000-280015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1490
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0608 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272308Z - 280015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG/DAMAGING
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH A WATCH IS UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A SURFACE TROF EXTENDING
NWD ACROSS SWRN NM...IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
NWWD FROM CHIHUAHUA. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING/REDUCTION IN CINH HAS
ALLOWED SCATTERED STG/OCNLY SVR TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SFC TROUGH WITH MORE ISOLD DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CHIHUAHUA DISTURBANCE AND
CONTINUED HEATING...A GENERAL INCREASE TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.
MID LEVEL FLOW OF AROUND 15-20 KTS AND MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
WILL PROMOTE MULTICELL STORM ORGANIZATION...AND A DEEP MIXED LAYER
COMBINED WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.4 INCHES SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK
FOR DAMAGING GUSTS. ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT LIKELY IN THE SHORT
TERM...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..BUNTING/EDWARDS.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON   32591218 32991058 33130982 33090925 33020824 32810804
            32430789 32020802 31800807 31770831 31440832 31350857
            31270909 31371073 31581175 31941235 32591218





000
ACUS11 KWNS 272210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272209
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-272315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1489
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN NEW YORK...CNTRL/ERN PA...PARTS OF
ADJACENT MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 272209Z - 272315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WHILE
SPREADING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE 00-03Z TIME
FRAME.  THIS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN HOW ORGANIZED THIS THREAT WILL BECOME.

DISCUSSION...MODIFICATION OF THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY DRYING...NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
INTO AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...IS SLOWLY UNDERWAY.  THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN...AS EVIDENT IN THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER FIELDS...GENERALLY COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING ALONG AN AXIS EAST
NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND OH INTO AREAS WEST OF LANCASTER PA.
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
WEAK/UNCERTAIN...BUT ACTIVITY TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE IS LIKELY
BEING AIDED BY STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
SEASONABLY STRONG HIGH LEVEL JET NOSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS SUGGEST THIS UPPER FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG AN
AXIS ROUGHLY EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA
BORDER THROUGH LATE EVENING.  THIS IS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE BETTER SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  BUT AS MODERATELY LARGE CAPE DEVELOPS
EAST NORTHEASTWARD...IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME
INCREASE IN RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR/EDWARDS.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON   42297931 42527693 42287531 41407474 40157543 39547680
            39687868 41147921 42297931





000
ACUS11 KWNS 272210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272209
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-272315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1489
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN NEW YORK...CNTRL/ERN PA...PARTS OF
ADJACENT MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 272209Z - 272315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WHILE
SPREADING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE 00-03Z TIME
FRAME.  THIS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN HOW ORGANIZED THIS THREAT WILL BECOME.

DISCUSSION...MODIFICATION OF THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY DRYING...NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
INTO AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...IS SLOWLY UNDERWAY.  THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN...AS EVIDENT IN THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER FIELDS...GENERALLY COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING ALONG AN AXIS EAST
NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND OH INTO AREAS WEST OF LANCASTER PA.
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
WEAK/UNCERTAIN...BUT ACTIVITY TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE IS LIKELY
BEING AIDED BY STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
SEASONABLY STRONG HIGH LEVEL JET NOSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS SUGGEST THIS UPPER FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG AN
AXIS ROUGHLY EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA
BORDER THROUGH LATE EVENING.  THIS IS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE BETTER SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  BUT AS MODERATELY LARGE CAPE DEVELOPS
EAST NORTHEASTWARD...IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME
INCREASE IN RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR/EDWARDS.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON   42297931 42527693 42287531 41407474 40157543 39547680
            39687868 41147921 42297931





000
ACUS11 KWNS 272210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272209
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-272315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1489
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN NEW YORK...CNTRL/ERN PA...PARTS OF
ADJACENT MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 272209Z - 272315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE WHILE
SPREADING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE 00-03Z TIME
FRAME.  THIS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER
RISK...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT IT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN HOW ORGANIZED THIS THREAT WILL BECOME.

DISCUSSION...MODIFICATION OF THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY DRYING...NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
INTO AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...IS SLOWLY UNDERWAY.  THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN...AS EVIDENT IN THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER FIELDS...GENERALLY COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING ALONG AN AXIS EAST
NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND OH INTO AREAS WEST OF LANCASTER PA.
LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
WEAK/UNCERTAIN...BUT ACTIVITY TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE IS LIKELY
BEING AIDED BY STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
SEASONABLY STRONG HIGH LEVEL JET NOSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
MODELS SUGGEST THIS UPPER FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG AN
AXIS ROUGHLY EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA
BORDER THROUGH LATE EVENING.  THIS IS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE BETTER SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  BUT AS MODERATELY LARGE CAPE DEVELOPS
EAST NORTHEASTWARD...IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME
INCREASE IN RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR/EDWARDS.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON   42297931 42527693 42287531 41407474 40157543 39547680
            39687868 41147921 42297931






000
ACUS11 KWNS 272055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272055
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-272200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1488
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LOWER MI...NERN IND...FAR NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446...

VALID 272055Z - 272200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS LOWER MI AND N-CNTRL
IND...WITH SEVERAL EXHIBITING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. THREAT SHOULD DECREASE FROM THE W IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS IND PORTION OF THE WATCH...WHILE ADDITIONAL
STRONG STORMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM LM INTO WRN LOWER MI THE NEXT
1-2 HRS.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS /MOSTLY DISCRETE/ STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS LOWER MI AND NERN IND.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS GENERALLY FOCUSED NEAR A SFC LOW OVER
CNTRL MI...AND ALONG/AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING
EWD ACROSS CNTRL IND AND WRN LOWER MI. SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL
/UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE/ HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS...AS
WELL AS STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS. THESE WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS ACTIVITY GENERALLY
SHIFTS EWD.

TSTM POTENTIAL DECREASES RAPIDLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
CNTRL IND...WHERE MUCH DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING EWD. ACROSS LOWER
MI...ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED W OF THE COLD FRONT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MIDLEVEL COLD POCKET ACCOMPANYING AN INTENSE UPPER
TROUGH. WHILE SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT
REDUCED IN THE PRESENCE OF COOLER SFC TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
LOW-LEVEL AIR...A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY STILL
EXIST.

..ROGERS.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...

LAT...LON   40658393 40658477 40408506 40578619 41328623 43398553
            43928506 44098390 43918277 43388224 42768236 41848321
            41748380 40658393





000
ACUS11 KWNS 272055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272055
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-272200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1488
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LOWER MI...NERN IND...FAR NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446...

VALID 272055Z - 272200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS LOWER MI AND N-CNTRL
IND...WITH SEVERAL EXHIBITING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. THREAT SHOULD DECREASE FROM THE W IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS IND PORTION OF THE WATCH...WHILE ADDITIONAL
STRONG STORMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM LM INTO WRN LOWER MI THE NEXT
1-2 HRS.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS /MOSTLY DISCRETE/ STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS LOWER MI AND NERN IND.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS GENERALLY FOCUSED NEAR A SFC LOW OVER
CNTRL MI...AND ALONG/AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING
EWD ACROSS CNTRL IND AND WRN LOWER MI. SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL
/UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE/ HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS...AS
WELL AS STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS. THESE WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS ACTIVITY GENERALLY
SHIFTS EWD.

TSTM POTENTIAL DECREASES RAPIDLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
CNTRL IND...WHERE MUCH DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING EWD. ACROSS LOWER
MI...ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED W OF THE COLD FRONT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MIDLEVEL COLD POCKET ACCOMPANYING AN INTENSE UPPER
TROUGH. WHILE SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT
REDUCED IN THE PRESENCE OF COOLER SFC TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
LOW-LEVEL AIR...A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY STILL
EXIST.

..ROGERS.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...

LAT...LON   40658393 40658477 40408506 40578619 41328623 43398553
            43928506 44098390 43918277 43388224 42768236 41848321
            41748380 40658393






000
ACUS11 KWNS 272055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272055
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-272200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1488
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF LOWER MI...NERN IND...FAR NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446...

VALID 272055Z - 272200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS LOWER MI AND N-CNTRL
IND...WITH SEVERAL EXHIBITING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. THREAT SHOULD DECREASE FROM THE W IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS IND PORTION OF THE WATCH...WHILE ADDITIONAL
STRONG STORMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE FROM LM INTO WRN LOWER MI THE NEXT
1-2 HRS.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS /MOSTLY DISCRETE/ STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS LOWER MI AND NERN IND.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS GENERALLY FOCUSED NEAR A SFC LOW OVER
CNTRL MI...AND ALONG/AHEAD OF AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING
EWD ACROSS CNTRL IND AND WRN LOWER MI. SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL
/UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE/ HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS...AS
WELL AS STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS. THESE WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS ACTIVITY GENERALLY
SHIFTS EWD.

TSTM POTENTIAL DECREASES RAPIDLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER
CNTRL IND...WHERE MUCH DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING EWD. ACROSS LOWER
MI...ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED W OF THE COLD FRONT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH MIDLEVEL COLD POCKET ACCOMPANYING AN INTENSE UPPER
TROUGH. WHILE SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT
REDUCED IN THE PRESENCE OF COOLER SFC TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
LOW-LEVEL AIR...A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY STILL
EXIST.

..ROGERS.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...

LAT...LON   40658393 40658477 40408506 40578619 41328623 43398553
            43928506 44098390 43918277 43388224 42768236 41848321
            41748380 40658393





000
ACUS11 KWNS 272050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272049
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-272245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1487
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA THROUGH WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 272049Z - 272245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO MOVE OR DEVELOP
FARTHER EAST INTO WRN VA AND WRN NC. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THEY
WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IN
ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS SEVERE THREAT MAY STILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS AWAY FOR
THIS REGION.

DISCUSSION...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS SWRN VA INTO WRN NC.
THE STRONGER CAPE IS OVER WRN NC WHERE GREATER DIABATIC WARMING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS OCCURRED. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS CURRENTLY
WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...AND ANVIL DEBRIS IS LIMITING MORE ROBUST
HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS.
MOREOVER...WLY DEEP LAYER WINDS ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO DOWNSLOPE
INDUCED SUBSIDENCE. THEREFORE...NEAR TERM THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER JET EXIT REGION SHIFTS
EWD...STORMS MIGHT EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FROM WRN NC INTO WRN AND SWRN
VA...PRIMARILY AFTER 23Z. SHOULD STORMS INITIATE...STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

..DIAL/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   36258190 36848150 37238020 37047889 35927980 35568203
            35808266 36258190





000
ACUS11 KWNS 272050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272049
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-272245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1487
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA THROUGH WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 272049Z - 272245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO MOVE OR DEVELOP
FARTHER EAST INTO WRN VA AND WRN NC. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THEY
WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IN
ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS SEVERE THREAT MAY STILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS AWAY FOR
THIS REGION.

DISCUSSION...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS SWRN VA INTO WRN NC.
THE STRONGER CAPE IS OVER WRN NC WHERE GREATER DIABATIC WARMING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS OCCURRED. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS CURRENTLY
WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...AND ANVIL DEBRIS IS LIMITING MORE ROBUST
HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS.
MOREOVER...WLY DEEP LAYER WINDS ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO DOWNSLOPE
INDUCED SUBSIDENCE. THEREFORE...NEAR TERM THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER JET EXIT REGION SHIFTS
EWD...STORMS MIGHT EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FROM WRN NC INTO WRN AND SWRN
VA...PRIMARILY AFTER 23Z. SHOULD STORMS INITIATE...STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

..DIAL/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   36258190 36848150 37238020 37047889 35927980 35568203
            35808266 36258190





000
ACUS11 KWNS 272050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272049
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-272245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1487
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN VA THROUGH WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 272049Z - 272245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO MOVE OR DEVELOP
FARTHER EAST INTO WRN VA AND WRN NC. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THEY
WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IN
ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS SEVERE THREAT MAY STILL BE AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS AWAY FOR
THIS REGION.

DISCUSSION...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOW A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS SWRN VA INTO WRN NC.
THE STRONGER CAPE IS OVER WRN NC WHERE GREATER DIABATIC WARMING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS OCCURRED. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS CURRENTLY
WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...AND ANVIL DEBRIS IS LIMITING MORE ROBUST
HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS.
MOREOVER...WLY DEEP LAYER WINDS ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO DOWNSLOPE
INDUCED SUBSIDENCE. THEREFORE...NEAR TERM THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...AS UPPER JET EXIT REGION SHIFTS
EWD...STORMS MIGHT EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FROM WRN NC INTO WRN AND SWRN
VA...PRIMARILY AFTER 23Z. SHOULD STORMS INITIATE...STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

..DIAL/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   36258190 36848150 37238020 37047889 35927980 35568203
            35808266 36258190






000
ACUS11 KWNS 272010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272009
NMZ000-AZZ000-272115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND N-CNTRL AZ...W-CNTRL NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272009Z - 272115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF ERN AND W-CNTRL
NM...SPREADING NWWD TOWARDS N-CNTRL AZ LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE INITIATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W-CNTRL
AZ AND FAR E-CNTRL NM...AHEAD OF A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING NWD
OUT OF CHIHUAHUA INTO SWRN NM AND SERN AZ. SFC OBS SHOW A MOIST AIR
MASS IS IN PLACE ALONG/N OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID-50S F...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. A BELT OF
20-30 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW WAS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA...ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF A SRN HIGH PLAINS ANTICYCLONE. AS A RESULT...A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CONVECTION...WITH TSTMS LIKELY TO PROGRESS NWWD TOWARDS N-CNTRL AZ
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TYPICAL STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...WITH DCAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG...AN ACCOMPANYING RISK
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS IS LIKELY. HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY STRONGER/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY PRESENT.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   32660828 32410879 32600991 33471082 34131181 34401209
            35281187 35411178 35691145 35891038 35590929 35100859
            34560800 34240798 32660828






000
ACUS11 KWNS 272010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272009
NMZ000-AZZ000-272115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND N-CNTRL AZ...W-CNTRL NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272009Z - 272115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF ERN AND W-CNTRL
NM...SPREADING NWWD TOWARDS N-CNTRL AZ LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE INITIATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF W-CNTRL
AZ AND FAR E-CNTRL NM...AHEAD OF A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING NWD
OUT OF CHIHUAHUA INTO SWRN NM AND SERN AZ. SFC OBS SHOW A MOIST AIR
MASS IS IN PLACE ALONG/N OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID-50S F...YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. A BELT OF
20-30 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW WAS POSITIONED OVER THE AREA...ALONG THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF A SRN HIGH PLAINS ANTICYCLONE. AS A RESULT...A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CONVECTION...WITH TSTMS LIKELY TO PROGRESS NWWD TOWARDS N-CNTRL AZ
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE TYPICAL STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...WITH DCAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG...AN ACCOMPANYING RISK
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS IS LIKELY. HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY STRONGER/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY PRESENT.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   32660828 32410879 32600991 33471082 34131181 34401209
            35281187 35411178 35691145 35891038 35590929 35100859
            34560800 34240798 32660828





000
ACUS01 KWNS 272002
SWODY1
SPC AC 272000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY...SRN TO CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...AND
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON.  A ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

SEVERAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE. THE
FIRST CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO SHIFT THE 10 PERCENT TORNADO
PROBABILITY AND SIGNIFICANT HATCHED AREA SWD TO COVER SE KY...FAR
SRN WV...WRN VA...ERN TN AND FAR WRN NC. THE SUPERCELLS CURRENTLY IN
SE KY WILL MOVE INTO THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 4 HOURS. THE
SECOND CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO REMOVE THE 5 PERCENT TORNADO FOR
MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF VA...NERN NC...NJ AND NE PA WHERE
INSTABILITY IS WEAKER THAN FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE 5 PERCENT
TORNADO PROBABILITY ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF PA INTO MD AND NJ WHERE
AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS SETTING UP. HAVE ADDED
PARTS OF SERN LOWER MI INTO THE 5 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY WHERE
INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE THIRD CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO
EXPAND THE 30 PERCENT WIND DAMAGE PROBABILITY INTO SERN LOWER MI AND
ESEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO ALIGN WITH THE AXIS OF
STRONGEST INSTABILITY. THE FOURTH CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO ALIGN
THE SLIGHT RISK AREAS WRN EDGE TO THAT A COLD FRONT IN NRN IND WHERE
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING. THE FIFTH
CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO ADD AREAS OF SW NM AND ECNTRL AZ INTO
THE 5 PERCENT WIND DAMAGE PROBABILITY WHERE MORE INSTABILITY HAS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 07/27/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN KY AND WESTERN WV
HAVE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY OF A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE MDT RISK AREA...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF TORNADOES/HAIL/WIND ACROSS THIS REGION.

A STRONG PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  RATHER STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...RESULTING IN A RATHER LARGE AREA OF POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER.  THE MOST FOCUSED AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER PARTS OF
KY/OH/WV.

...KY/OH/WV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THIS MORNING
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KY INTO WESTERN WV.  THIS REGION OF
CONVECTION WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY 12Z NAM INITIALIZATION OR ANY
MESOSCALE MODELS THAT USE THAT INPUT.  THIS RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS CAN DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN OH THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER
DEPICTED IN A MDT RISK.  DUE TO INCREASING DOUBT...HAVE REMOVED THE
45 PERCENT WIND AREA...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED OTHER ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS REGION.

AT 15Z...THE PRIMARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING STORMS
EXTENDS FROM WEST-CENTRAL KY TO SOUTH JKL.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
BOWING SEGMENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CREST OF THE
APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF VA AND NORTHERN NC.

...LOWER MI/OH/PA...
STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF OH INTO WESTERN PA...WHERE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED.  MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP...ALONG WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES...WILL
PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 272002
SWODY1
SPC AC 272000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY...SRN TO CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...AND
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON.  A ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

SEVERAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE. THE
FIRST CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO SHIFT THE 10 PERCENT TORNADO
PROBABILITY AND SIGNIFICANT HATCHED AREA SWD TO COVER SE KY...FAR
SRN WV...WRN VA...ERN TN AND FAR WRN NC. THE SUPERCELLS CURRENTLY IN
SE KY WILL MOVE INTO THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 4 HOURS. THE
SECOND CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO REMOVE THE 5 PERCENT TORNADO FOR
MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF VA...NERN NC...NJ AND NE PA WHERE
INSTABILITY IS WEAKER THAN FORECAST. HAVE MAINTAINED THE 5 PERCENT
TORNADO PROBABILITY ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF PA INTO MD AND NJ WHERE
AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS SETTING UP. HAVE ADDED
PARTS OF SERN LOWER MI INTO THE 5 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY WHERE
INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE THIRD CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO
EXPAND THE 30 PERCENT WIND DAMAGE PROBABILITY INTO SERN LOWER MI AND
ESEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO ALIGN WITH THE AXIS OF
STRONGEST INSTABILITY. THE FOURTH CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO ALIGN
THE SLIGHT RISK AREAS WRN EDGE TO THAT A COLD FRONT IN NRN IND WHERE
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING. THE FIFTH
CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO ADD AREAS OF SW NM AND ECNTRL AZ INTO
THE 5 PERCENT WIND DAMAGE PROBABILITY WHERE MORE INSTABILITY HAS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 07/27/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN KY AND WESTERN WV
HAVE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY OF A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE MDT RISK AREA...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF TORNADOES/HAIL/WIND ACROSS THIS REGION.

A STRONG PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  RATHER STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...RESULTING IN A RATHER LARGE AREA OF POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER.  THE MOST FOCUSED AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER PARTS OF
KY/OH/WV.

...KY/OH/WV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THIS MORNING
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KY INTO WESTERN WV.  THIS REGION OF
CONVECTION WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY 12Z NAM INITIALIZATION OR ANY
MESOSCALE MODELS THAT USE THAT INPUT.  THIS RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS CAN DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN OH THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER
DEPICTED IN A MDT RISK.  DUE TO INCREASING DOUBT...HAVE REMOVED THE
45 PERCENT WIND AREA...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED OTHER ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS REGION.

AT 15Z...THE PRIMARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING STORMS
EXTENDS FROM WEST-CENTRAL KY TO SOUTH JKL.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
BOWING SEGMENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CREST OF THE
APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF VA AND NORTHERN NC.

...LOWER MI/OH/PA...
STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF OH INTO WESTERN PA...WHERE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED.  MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP...ALONG WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES...WILL
PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.






000
ACUS11 KWNS 271914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271914
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-272115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1485
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KY...NERN TN AND EXTREME SWRN VA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 445...

VALID 271914Z - 272115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 445 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF WW 445 IN THE NEAR
TERM INCLUDING ERN KY...NERN TN AND EXTREME WRN PORTIONS OF VA.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER WEST ACROSS CNTRL KY AND NRN
MIDDLE TN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...ENEWD ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR FROM THE
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR HAS RESULTED IN AN OVERALL INTENSIFICATION
OF STORMS THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY ELEVATED. SEVERAL STORMS OVER ERN KY
HAVE EVOLVED INTO SUPERCELLS AND ARE LIKELY INGESTING AIR FROM
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN KY WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S. THE VWP FROM JACKSON KY
INDICATES LARGE 0-2KM HODOGRAPHS WITH VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KT AT 5 KM RESULTING IN STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR.
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS SERN KY AND EVENTUALLY NERN TN.

FARTHER WEST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE
STRATOCUMULUS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS SWRN KY
APPROACHING THE TN BORDER. SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER CUMULUS HAS ALSO
BEEN OBSERVED...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL KY
AND MOVE INTO NRN MIDDLE TN. LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WLY IN
THIS REGION RESULTING IN SMALL 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS...BUT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 40-50 KT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.

..DIAL.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37658559 38348439 37858266 37178203 36118213 35748403
            36208589 36388683 36848720 37278630 37658559





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271914
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-272115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1485
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KY...NERN TN AND EXTREME SWRN VA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 445...

VALID 271914Z - 272115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 445 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF WW 445 IN THE NEAR
TERM INCLUDING ERN KY...NERN TN AND EXTREME WRN PORTIONS OF VA.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER WEST ACROSS CNTRL KY AND NRN
MIDDLE TN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...ENEWD ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR FROM THE
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR HAS RESULTED IN AN OVERALL INTENSIFICATION
OF STORMS THAT WERE PREVIOUSLY ELEVATED. SEVERAL STORMS OVER ERN KY
HAVE EVOLVED INTO SUPERCELLS AND ARE LIKELY INGESTING AIR FROM
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN KY WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S. THE VWP FROM JACKSON KY
INDICATES LARGE 0-2KM HODOGRAPHS WITH VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KT AT 5 KM RESULTING IN STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR.
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS SERN KY AND EVENTUALLY NERN TN.

FARTHER WEST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE
STRATOCUMULUS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS SWRN KY
APPROACHING THE TN BORDER. SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER CUMULUS HAS ALSO
BEEN OBSERVED...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL KY
AND MOVE INTO NRN MIDDLE TN. LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WLY IN
THIS REGION RESULTING IN SMALL 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS...BUT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 40-50 KT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.

..DIAL.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37658559 38348439 37858266 37178203 36118213 35748403
            36208589 36388683 36848720 37278630 37658559






000
ACUS11 KWNS 271913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271912
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-272015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...WRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271912Z - 272015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NY INTO PARTS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND. COVERAGE
OF THESE THREATS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A WEAK BAROCLINIC
ZONE GENERATED BY EARLIER CONVECTION...WHICH IS BEING REINFORCED BY
A COOLER AIR MASS DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS W-CNTRL NY.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING NWD TO NEAR/W OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE REGION WERE LOCATED NEAR THE
ALBANY/TRI-CITY AREA AS OF 19Z. THE AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED IN THE
WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD
INTO MAINE...WITH AN AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE CENTERED OVER THE
ERN HALF OF NY. WEAK SLY WINDS VEERING TO WLY IN THE MIDLEVELS IS
YIELDING SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SMALL ORGANIZED TSTM
CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. DUE TO THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND RELATIVELY SPARSE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...A WW DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED ATTM...BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   44917223 44797176 43977151 43017188 42237227 41767278
            41687346 41807411 42307446 42587503 42677538 43317517
            45037431 44917223





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271912
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-272015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...WRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271912Z - 272015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NY INTO PARTS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND. COVERAGE
OF THESE THREATS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A WEAK BAROCLINIC
ZONE GENERATED BY EARLIER CONVECTION...WHICH IS BEING REINFORCED BY
A COOLER AIR MASS DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS W-CNTRL NY.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING NWD TO NEAR/W OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE REGION WERE LOCATED NEAR THE
ALBANY/TRI-CITY AREA AS OF 19Z. THE AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED IN THE
WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD
INTO MAINE...WITH AN AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE CENTERED OVER THE
ERN HALF OF NY. WEAK SLY WINDS VEERING TO WLY IN THE MIDLEVELS IS
YIELDING SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SMALL ORGANIZED TSTM
CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. DUE TO THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND RELATIVELY SPARSE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...A WW DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED ATTM...BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   44917223 44797176 43977151 43017188 42237227 41767278
            41687346 41807411 42307446 42587503 42677538 43317517
            45037431 44917223






000
ACUS11 KWNS 271913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271912
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-272015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...WRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271912Z - 272015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NY INTO PARTS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND. COVERAGE
OF THESE THREATS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A WEAK BAROCLINIC
ZONE GENERATED BY EARLIER CONVECTION...WHICH IS BEING REINFORCED BY
A COOLER AIR MASS DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS W-CNTRL NY.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING NWD TO NEAR/W OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE REGION WERE LOCATED NEAR THE
ALBANY/TRI-CITY AREA AS OF 19Z. THE AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED IN THE
WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD
INTO MAINE...WITH AN AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE CENTERED OVER THE
ERN HALF OF NY. WEAK SLY WINDS VEERING TO WLY IN THE MIDLEVELS IS
YIELDING SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SMALL ORGANIZED TSTM
CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. DUE TO THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND RELATIVELY SPARSE COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...A WW DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED ATTM...BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   44917223 44797176 43977151 43017188 42237227 41767278
            41687346 41807411 42307446 42587503 42677538 43317517
            45037431 44917223





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271839
INZ000-ILZ000-271945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1483
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CNTRL IL...CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271839Z - 271945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER E-CNTRL IL...AND A PRE-FRONTAL
SFC TROUGH OVER CNTRL IND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDITIONALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...AND A WW IS POSSIBLE
IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PERCOLATING CU FIELD
ALONG A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS POSITIONED FROM JUST W OF
VPZ TO NEAR DEC AS OF 1830Z. ADDITIONAL CU WAS DEVELOPING INVOF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT S/W OF THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA. THESE AREAS
ARE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT...AS AN UPPER JET IS
NOSING INTO NRN IL AND W-CNTRL IND THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LIMIT
TSTM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...STRONG
HEATING AMIDST MODERATELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS YIELDING
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. LONG AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS
ENHANCED BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE CONDITIONALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE SURROUNDS TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...

LAT...LON   38808770 39198797 40148781 40438737 40448694 40318583
            40078554 39578543 38888578 38718684 38808770





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271839
INZ000-ILZ000-271945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1483
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CNTRL IL...CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271839Z - 271945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER E-CNTRL IL...AND A PRE-FRONTAL
SFC TROUGH OVER CNTRL IND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDITIONALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...AND A WW IS POSSIBLE
IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PERCOLATING CU FIELD
ALONG A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS POSITIONED FROM JUST W OF
VPZ TO NEAR DEC AS OF 1830Z. ADDITIONAL CU WAS DEVELOPING INVOF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT S/W OF THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA. THESE AREAS
ARE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT...AS AN UPPER JET IS
NOSING INTO NRN IL AND W-CNTRL IND THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LIMIT
TSTM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...STRONG
HEATING AMIDST MODERATELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS YIELDING
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. LONG AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS
ENHANCED BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE CONDITIONALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE SURROUNDS TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...

LAT...LON   38808770 39198797 40148781 40438737 40448694 40318583
            40078554 39578543 38888578 38718684 38808770





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271839
INZ000-ILZ000-271945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1483
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CNTRL IL...CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271839Z - 271945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER E-CNTRL IL...AND A PRE-FRONTAL
SFC TROUGH OVER CNTRL IND. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDITIONALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...AND A WW IS POSSIBLE
IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PERCOLATING CU FIELD
ALONG A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS POSITIONED FROM JUST W OF
VPZ TO NEAR DEC AS OF 1830Z. ADDITIONAL CU WAS DEVELOPING INVOF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT S/W OF THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA. THESE AREAS
ARE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT...AS AN UPPER JET IS
NOSING INTO NRN IL AND W-CNTRL IND THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY LIMIT
TSTM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...STRONG
HEATING AMIDST MODERATELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS YIELDING
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. LONG AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS
ENHANCED BY ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE CONDITIONALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE SURROUNDS TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...

LAT...LON   38808770 39198797 40148781 40438737 40448694 40318583
            40078554 39578543 38888578 38718684 38808770






000
ACUS02 KWNS 271714
SWODY2
SPC AC 271713

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
ERN GULF COAST STATES AND ERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CAROLINAS EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.

...ERN CAROLINAS/CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS
ON MONDAY. AT THE SFC...A SHARPLY DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
SWD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SFC
DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S F. THIS ALONG WITH SFC HEATING SHOULD MAINTAIN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD ENABLE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH A FEW
CLUSTERS PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MOBILE AL...AUGUSTA GA AND COLUMBUS SC AT
21Z/MON SHOW MLCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE...0-6 KM SHEAR OF
25 TO 30 KT AND VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS ENVIRONMENT
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE MULTICELLS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE. SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALSO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WHERE THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN IN THE GULF COAST STATES. DUE TO THE
LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
MARGINAL BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

...NEW ENGLAND...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. ON MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SFC LOW SHOULD
DEEPEN AND MOVE NWD FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO QUEBEC. AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SFC
LOW SWD TO JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ALONG WHICH THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE AROUND MIDDAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SEE TEXT AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE OF 1000
J/KG WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CORES.

..BROYLES.. 07/27/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 271714
SWODY2
SPC AC 271713

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
ERN GULF COAST STATES AND ERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CAROLINAS EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.

...ERN CAROLINAS/CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS
ON MONDAY. AT THE SFC...A SHARPLY DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
SWD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SFC
DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S F. THIS ALONG WITH SFC HEATING SHOULD MAINTAIN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD ENABLE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH A FEW
CLUSTERS PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MOBILE AL...AUGUSTA GA AND COLUMBUS SC AT
21Z/MON SHOW MLCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE...0-6 KM SHEAR OF
25 TO 30 KT AND VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS ENVIRONMENT
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE MULTICELLS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE. SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALSO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WHERE THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN IN THE GULF COAST STATES. DUE TO THE
LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
MARGINAL BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.

...NEW ENGLAND...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. ON MONDAY
AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SFC LOW SHOULD
DEEPEN AND MOVE NWD FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO QUEBEC. AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SFC
LOW SWD TO JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...ALONG WHICH THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE AROUND MIDDAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SEE TEXT AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE OF 1000
J/KG WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER CORES.

..BROYLES.. 07/27/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 271654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271654
MIZ000-271800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1482
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271654Z - 271800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF NEAR-SVR HAIL...STRONG WIND
GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY ONGOING TSTMS
ACROSS NRN LOWER MI. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FARTHER
S INTO S-CNTRL/SERN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON...WHERE DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS A COUPLE LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NRN LOWER MI...INCLUDING ONE OVER CRAWFORD
COUNTY AND ANOTHER OVER OTSEGO COUNTY. THESE TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
NEAR/AHEAD OF A SFC LOW POSITIONED NEAR NRN LM...AND AN ATTENDANT
SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN LOWER MI. DESPITE SFC TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY NEAR 70 F...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ADVECTING
EWD...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW S OF LS...ARE SUPPORTING AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MLCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER NRN LOWER MI. APX VWP DATA SHOWS
LOCALLY BACKED S-SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO WLY ABOVE 1 KM
AGL...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE TO CONTINUE
SUPPORTING LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREATS ARE LIKELY TO BE
NEAR-SVR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. THESE
THREATS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE WRN SHORE OF LH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HRS.

FARTHER S...INCLUDING S-CNTRL/SERN LOWER MI...ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE
ONGOING...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING ARE OCCURRING. AN INCREASE
IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS
ACROSS THIS AREA AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE REGION. WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS MORE
VEERED/WLY...PRIMARY THREATS WILL LIKELY BE SVR WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS NRN LOWER
MI...AND AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN TSTMS FARTHER S...WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42938242 42268291 41848329 41878389 41848439 41938494
            43828524 44798521 45058543 45518500 45668482 45618418
            45298333 45048332 43978261 42938242






000
ACUS11 KWNS 271654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271654
MIZ000-271800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1482
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271654Z - 271800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF NEAR-SVR HAIL...STRONG WIND
GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY ONGOING TSTMS
ACROSS NRN LOWER MI. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FARTHER
S INTO S-CNTRL/SERN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON...WHERE DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS A COUPLE LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NRN LOWER MI...INCLUDING ONE OVER CRAWFORD
COUNTY AND ANOTHER OVER OTSEGO COUNTY. THESE TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
NEAR/AHEAD OF A SFC LOW POSITIONED NEAR NRN LM...AND AN ATTENDANT
SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN LOWER MI. DESPITE SFC TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY NEAR 70 F...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ADVECTING
EWD...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW S OF LS...ARE SUPPORTING AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MLCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER NRN LOWER MI. APX VWP DATA SHOWS
LOCALLY BACKED S-SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO WLY ABOVE 1 KM
AGL...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE TO CONTINUE
SUPPORTING LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREATS ARE LIKELY TO BE
NEAR-SVR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. THESE
THREATS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE WRN SHORE OF LH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HRS.

FARTHER S...INCLUDING S-CNTRL/SERN LOWER MI...ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE
ONGOING...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING ARE OCCURRING. AN INCREASE
IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS
ACROSS THIS AREA AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE REGION. WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS MORE
VEERED/WLY...PRIMARY THREATS WILL LIKELY BE SVR WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS NRN LOWER
MI...AND AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN TSTMS FARTHER S...WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42938242 42268291 41848329 41878389 41848439 41938494
            43828524 44798521 45058543 45518500 45668482 45618418
            45298333 45048332 43978261 42938242





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271654
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271654
MIZ000-271800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1482
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271654Z - 271800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF NEAR-SVR HAIL...STRONG WIND
GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY ONGOING TSTMS
ACROSS NRN LOWER MI. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FARTHER
S INTO S-CNTRL/SERN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON...WHERE DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS A COUPLE LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NRN LOWER MI...INCLUDING ONE OVER CRAWFORD
COUNTY AND ANOTHER OVER OTSEGO COUNTY. THESE TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
NEAR/AHEAD OF A SFC LOW POSITIONED NEAR NRN LM...AND AN ATTENDANT
SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN LOWER MI. DESPITE SFC TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY NEAR 70 F...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ADVECTING
EWD...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW S OF LS...ARE SUPPORTING AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MLCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER NRN LOWER MI. APX VWP DATA SHOWS
LOCALLY BACKED S-SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO WLY ABOVE 1 KM
AGL...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE TO CONTINUE
SUPPORTING LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREATS ARE LIKELY TO BE
NEAR-SVR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. THESE
THREATS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE WRN SHORE OF LH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HRS.

FARTHER S...INCLUDING S-CNTRL/SERN LOWER MI...ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE
ONGOING...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING ARE OCCURRING. AN INCREASE
IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS
ACROSS THIS AREA AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE
UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE REGION. WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS MORE
VEERED/WLY...PRIMARY THREATS WILL LIKELY BE SVR WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS NRN LOWER
MI...AND AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN TSTMS FARTHER S...WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42938242 42268291 41848329 41878389 41848439 41938494
            43828524 44798521 45058543 45518500 45668482 45618418
            45298333 45048332 43978261 42938242





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271652
WVZ000-OHZ000-271815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1481
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271652Z - 271815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS OH. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...STORMS THAT INITIATED IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME
CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH WRN OH. UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN
ELEVATED...BUT STORMS MAY SOON BECOME SFC BASED AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZES AND TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 80S. A STRONG
MID-LEVEL JET MOVING EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY IS SUPPORTING 40-50
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES MOSTLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL. HOWEVER...VWPS INDICATE SOME VEERING BETWEEN THE SFC
AND 2 KM WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 150-200 M2/S2. AS STORMS
BECOME SFC BASED...THEY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES.

..DIAL/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...

LAT...LON   41218256 41468081 40418063 39518169 39778378 41128445
            41218256





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271652
WVZ000-OHZ000-271815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1481
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271652Z - 271815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS OH. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...STORMS THAT INITIATED IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME
CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH WRN OH. UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN
ELEVATED...BUT STORMS MAY SOON BECOME SFC BASED AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZES AND TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 80S. A STRONG
MID-LEVEL JET MOVING EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY IS SUPPORTING 40-50
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES MOSTLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL. HOWEVER...VWPS INDICATE SOME VEERING BETWEEN THE SFC
AND 2 KM WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 150-200 M2/S2. AS STORMS
BECOME SFC BASED...THEY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES.

..DIAL/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...

LAT...LON   41218256 41468081 40418063 39518169 39778378 41128445
            41218256






000
ACUS11 KWNS 271653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271652
WVZ000-OHZ000-271815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1481
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271652Z - 271815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS OH. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...STORMS THAT INITIATED IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME
CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH WRN OH. UPDRAFTS HAVE BEEN
ELEVATED...BUT STORMS MAY SOON BECOME SFC BASED AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZES AND TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 80S. A STRONG
MID-LEVEL JET MOVING EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY IS SUPPORTING 40-50
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES MOSTLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL. HOWEVER...VWPS INDICATE SOME VEERING BETWEEN THE SFC
AND 2 KM WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 150-200 M2/S2. AS STORMS
BECOME SFC BASED...THEY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES.

..DIAL/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...

LAT...LON   41218256 41468081 40418063 39518169 39778378 41128445
            41218256





000
ACUS01 KWNS 271621
SWODY1
SPC AC 271620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH
VALLEY...MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...AND
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON.  A ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN KY AND WESTERN WV
HAVE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY OF A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE MDT RISK AREA...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF TORNADOES/HAIL/WIND ACROSS THIS REGION.

A STRONG PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  RATHER STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...RESULTING IN A RATHER LARGE AREA OF POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER.  THE MOST FOCUSED AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER PARTS OF
KY/OH/WV.

...KY/OH/WV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THIS MORNING
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KY INTO WESTERN WV.  THIS REGION OF
CONVECTION WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY 12Z NAM INITIALIZATION OR ANY
MESOSCALE MODELS THAT USE THAT INPUT.  THIS RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS CAN DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN OH THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER
DEPICTED IN A MDT RISK.  DUE TO INCREASING DOUBT...HAVE REMOVED THE
45 PERCENT WIND AREA...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED OTHER ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS REGION.

AT 15Z...THE PRIMARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING STORMS
EXTENDS FROM WEST-CENTRAL KY TO SOUTH JKL.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
BOWING SEGMENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CREST OF THE
APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF VA AND NORTHERN NC.

...LOWER MI/OH/PA...
STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF OH INTO WESTERN PA...WHERE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED.  MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP...ALONG WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES...WILL
PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

..HART/ROGERS.. 07/27/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 271621
SWODY1
SPC AC 271620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH
VALLEY...MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...AND
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON.  A ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN KY AND WESTERN WV
HAVE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY OF A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
THEREFORE HAVE REMOVED THE MDT RISK AREA...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF TORNADOES/HAIL/WIND ACROSS THIS REGION.

A STRONG PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TODAY AND TONIGHT.  RATHER STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...RESULTING IN A RATHER LARGE AREA OF POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER.  THE MOST FOCUSED AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER PARTS OF
KY/OH/WV.

...KY/OH/WV THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THIS MORNING
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KY INTO WESTERN WV.  THIS REGION OF
CONVECTION WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY 12Z NAM INITIALIZATION OR ANY
MESOSCALE MODELS THAT USE THAT INPUT.  THIS RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS CAN DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN OH THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER
DEPICTED IN A MDT RISK.  DUE TO INCREASING DOUBT...HAVE REMOVED THE
45 PERCENT WIND AREA...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED OTHER ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS REGION.

AT 15Z...THE PRIMARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING STORMS
EXTENDS FROM WEST-CENTRAL KY TO SOUTH JKL.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
BOWING SEGMENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE CREST OF THE
APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF VA AND NORTHERN NC.

...LOWER MI/OH/PA...
STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF OH INTO WESTERN PA...WHERE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED.  MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP...ALONG WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES...WILL
PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

..HART/ROGERS.. 07/27/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 271519
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271519
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-271715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1480
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...KY AND SRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271519Z - 271715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IN THE NEAR TERM STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
MAINLY ISOLATED HAIL FROM SRN IND THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL KY.
HOWEVER...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT COULD EVOLVE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A CUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS PERSISTS
FROM ERN AND SRN IND THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL KY. ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WSWLY LLJ. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DESTABILIZING W
AND SW OF THE ONGOING STORMS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE
LOW 80S WITH LOW 70F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. A SHARPENING PRE-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS INDICATED FROM SWRN IND INTO SRN IL MOVING
SEWD. AS THE SFC LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...NEW SFC-BASED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF A SEWD
ADVANCING UPPER JET. THE POSSIBILITY ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME OF THE
ELEVATED STORMS FORMING ALONG WRN FLANK OF THE MCS TO BECOME SFC
BASED AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS EWD WITH TIME. TIMING OF SFC
BASED INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT BASED ON MORNING RAOBS AND POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S. STRENGTHENING
VERTICAL SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER JET AND RELATED LLJ WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES.

..DIAL/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   38918578 38018431 37168331 36668379 36638636 36678816
            37298834 37868738 38718680 38918578





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271519
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271519
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-271715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1480
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...KY AND SRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271519Z - 271715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IN THE NEAR TERM STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
MAINLY ISOLATED HAIL FROM SRN IND THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL KY.
HOWEVER...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT COULD EVOLVE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A CUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS PERSISTS
FROM ERN AND SRN IND THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL KY. ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WSWLY LLJ. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DESTABILIZING W
AND SW OF THE ONGOING STORMS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE
LOW 80S WITH LOW 70F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. A SHARPENING PRE-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS INDICATED FROM SWRN IND INTO SRN IL MOVING
SEWD. AS THE SFC LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...NEW SFC-BASED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF A SEWD
ADVANCING UPPER JET. THE POSSIBILITY ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME OF THE
ELEVATED STORMS FORMING ALONG WRN FLANK OF THE MCS TO BECOME SFC
BASED AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS EWD WITH TIME. TIMING OF SFC
BASED INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT BASED ON MORNING RAOBS AND POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S. STRENGTHENING
VERTICAL SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER JET AND RELATED LLJ WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES.

..DIAL/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   38918578 38018431 37168331 36668379 36638636 36678816
            37298834 37868738 38718680 38918578






000
ACUS11 KWNS 271519
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271519
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-271715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1480
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...KY AND SRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271519Z - 271715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IN THE NEAR TERM STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
MAINLY ISOLATED HAIL FROM SRN IND THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL KY.
HOWEVER...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT COULD EVOLVE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A CUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS PERSISTS
FROM ERN AND SRN IND THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL KY. ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WSWLY LLJ. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DESTABILIZING W
AND SW OF THE ONGOING STORMS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE
LOW 80S WITH LOW 70F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. A SHARPENING PRE-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS INDICATED FROM SWRN IND INTO SRN IL MOVING
SEWD. AS THE SFC LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...NEW SFC-BASED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND WITHIN EXIT REGION OF A SEWD
ADVANCING UPPER JET. THE POSSIBILITY ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME OF THE
ELEVATED STORMS FORMING ALONG WRN FLANK OF THE MCS TO BECOME SFC
BASED AS HIGHER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS EWD WITH TIME. TIMING OF SFC
BASED INITIATION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT BASED ON MORNING RAOBS AND POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S. STRENGTHENING
VERTICAL SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER JET AND RELATED LLJ WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES.

..DIAL/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   38918578 38018431 37168331 36668379 36638636 36678816
            37298834 37868738 38718680 38918578





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271409
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271408
NCZ000-VAZ000-271515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1479
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0908 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NC...FAR SERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271408Z - 271515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINE OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL NC MAY POSE A RISK FOR
A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST. ALTHOUGH A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN WIND POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF TSTMS HAS FORMED THIS MORNING...ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A LONG-LIVED MCV MOVING OUT OF
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. KRAX RADAR FROM 14Z SAMPLED APPROXIMATELY
30-35 KT ON BASE VELOCITY W OF RALEIGH AT 1-2K FT...AND WITH
CONVECTION LIKELY STILL SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR
WIND GUSTS APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM. STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING
DOWNSHEAR FROM THIS LINE AND WILL ERODE WEAK CINH PRESENT IN THE 12Z
GSO/MHX SOUNDINGS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE CONVECTIVE LINE
BECOMING ROOTED NEAR THE SFC OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS A
RESULT...SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR THROUGH LATE
MORNING...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN A STRONG WIND THREAT
POSSIBLE AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER/SVR WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   36447606 35837608 34917656 34597756 34517860 34787913
            35307913 35977882 36337857 36697781 36757647 36447606





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271409
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271408
NCZ000-VAZ000-271515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1479
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0908 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NC...FAR SERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271408Z - 271515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINE OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL NC MAY POSE A RISK FOR
A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST. ALTHOUGH A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN WIND POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF TSTMS HAS FORMED THIS MORNING...ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A LONG-LIVED MCV MOVING OUT OF
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. KRAX RADAR FROM 14Z SAMPLED APPROXIMATELY
30-35 KT ON BASE VELOCITY W OF RALEIGH AT 1-2K FT...AND WITH
CONVECTION LIKELY STILL SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR
WIND GUSTS APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM. STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING
DOWNSHEAR FROM THIS LINE AND WILL ERODE WEAK CINH PRESENT IN THE 12Z
GSO/MHX SOUNDINGS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE CONVECTIVE LINE
BECOMING ROOTED NEAR THE SFC OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS A
RESULT...SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR THROUGH LATE
MORNING...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN A STRONG WIND THREAT
POSSIBLE AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER/SVR WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   36447606 35837608 34917656 34597756 34517860 34787913
            35307913 35977882 36337857 36697781 36757647 36447606






000
ACUS11 KWNS 271409
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271408
NCZ000-VAZ000-271515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1479
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0908 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NC...FAR SERN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271408Z - 271515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINE OF TSTMS MOVING ACROSS CNTRL NC MAY POSE A RISK FOR
A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST. ALTHOUGH A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN WIND POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF TSTMS HAS FORMED THIS MORNING...ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A LONG-LIVED MCV MOVING OUT OF
THE SRN APPALACHIANS. KRAX RADAR FROM 14Z SAMPLED APPROXIMATELY
30-35 KT ON BASE VELOCITY W OF RALEIGH AT 1-2K FT...AND WITH
CONVECTION LIKELY STILL SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR
WIND GUSTS APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM. STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING
DOWNSHEAR FROM THIS LINE AND WILL ERODE WEAK CINH PRESENT IN THE 12Z
GSO/MHX SOUNDINGS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE CONVECTIVE LINE
BECOMING ROOTED NEAR THE SFC OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS A
RESULT...SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR THROUGH LATE
MORNING...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN A STRONG WIND THREAT
POSSIBLE AS THE LINE APPROACHES THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER/SVR WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   36447606 35837608 34917656 34597756 34517860 34787913
            35307913 35977882 36337857 36697781 36757647 36447606





000
ACUS01 KWNS 271230
SWODY1
SPC AC 271229

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR ERN
KY...SRN OH...SW WV...AND SW VA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR A BROAD AREA FROM THE OH/TN
VALLEYS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.  THE MOST
CONCENTRATED AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA WILL BE
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHWESTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON.  A COUPLE OF
STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SWATHS OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING CENTERED ON THE KY/WV BORDER AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
SRN OH/SW VA...WHERE A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 60-90 KT MID/UPPER
SPEED MAX...WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
TO THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND THEN APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AN INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE LOW IN NW
LOWER MI THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS ESEWD AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
SEWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS.  A RESERVOIR OF LOW-MID 70S BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD EWD TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS...BENEATH A REMNANT PLUME OF
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIALLY STRONG
BUOYANCY.  ALONG WITH THE DESTABILIZATION...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.

...ERN KY/SRN OH/SW WV/SW VA AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...
THE ONGOING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS OVER SE INDIANA/NRN KY WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD IN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA ABOVE A REMNANT
COLD POOL FROM STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE DESTABILIZATION FROM
W TO E INTO THIS WAA ZONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...WITH
SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BY ABOUT MIDDAY NEAR OR
JUST S OF THE OH RIVER.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE OR
CLUSTER SUPERCELLS WITHIN A FEED OF 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM THE
W...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KT.  THE STRONG BUOYANCY WILL
SUPPORT A RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS.  ADDITIONALLY...SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN CONCERT WITH THE STRONG MID-UPPER
FLOW WILL CREATE HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN A
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THUS...A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN KY AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF OH/WV/VA.  OTHERWISE...THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS
COULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND RISK.

...NRN INDIANA/SE LOWER MI/NRN OH TODAY INTO PA TONIGHT...
BROKEN BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY ABOUT MIDDAY
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT...FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO
TO NW LOWER MI.  THESE STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE ESEWD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND BUOYANCY.  LINES/
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD/ESEWD ACROSS PA LATER THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
LEE TROUGH FORMATION WILL MAINTAIN THE NWD TRANSPORT OF LOW 70S
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM ERN NC INTO VA...WHILE SOME SURFACE
HEATING IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS CLOUD BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE MORNING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...MLCAPE
COULD REACH 1000-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  AS SUCH...DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE
CONCERNS WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO.  ALSO...EXPECT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN THE MDT RISK AREA TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE
INTO VA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING... WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 07/27/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 271230
SWODY1
SPC AC 271229

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR ERN
KY...SRN OH...SW WV...AND SW VA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR A BROAD AREA FROM THE OH/TN
VALLEYS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.  THE MOST
CONCENTRATED AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA WILL BE
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHWESTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON.  A COUPLE OF
STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SWATHS OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING CENTERED ON THE KY/WV BORDER AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
SRN OH/SW VA...WHERE A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 60-90 KT MID/UPPER
SPEED MAX...WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
TO THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND THEN APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AN INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE LOW IN NW
LOWER MI THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS ESEWD AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
SEWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS.  A RESERVOIR OF LOW-MID 70S BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD EWD TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS...BENEATH A REMNANT PLUME OF
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIALLY STRONG
BUOYANCY.  ALONG WITH THE DESTABILIZATION...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWING
SEGMENTS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.

...ERN KY/SRN OH/SW WV/SW VA AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...
THE ONGOING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS OVER SE INDIANA/NRN KY WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD IN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA ABOVE A REMNANT
COLD POOL FROM STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE DESTABILIZATION FROM
W TO E INTO THIS WAA ZONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...WITH
SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE BY ABOUT MIDDAY NEAR OR
JUST S OF THE OH RIVER.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE OR
CLUSTER SUPERCELLS WITHIN A FEED OF 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM THE
W...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KT.  THE STRONG BUOYANCY WILL
SUPPORT A RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS.  ADDITIONALLY...SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN CONCERT WITH THE STRONG MID-UPPER
FLOW WILL CREATE HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN A
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THUS...A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN KY AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF OH/WV/VA.  OTHERWISE...THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS
COULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND RISK.

...NRN INDIANA/SE LOWER MI/NRN OH TODAY INTO PA TONIGHT...
BROKEN BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY ABOUT MIDDAY
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT...FROM ROUGHLY CHICAGO
TO NW LOWER MI.  THESE STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE ESEWD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND BUOYANCY.  LINES/
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD/ESEWD ACROSS PA LATER THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
LEE TROUGH FORMATION WILL MAINTAIN THE NWD TRANSPORT OF LOW 70S
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM ERN NC INTO VA...WHILE SOME SURFACE
HEATING IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS CLOUD BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE MORNING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...MLCAPE
COULD REACH 1000-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  AS SUCH...DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE
CONCERNS WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON/
EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO.  ALSO...EXPECT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN THE MDT RISK AREA TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE
INTO VA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING... WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 07/27/2014





000
ACUS11 KWNS 270834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270834
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-271030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1478
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL IL...WRN-SRN IND...AND NWRN-CENTRAL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 270834Z - 271030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ELEVATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM EAST-CENTRAL
IL AND SRN IND INTO ADJACENT NWRN KY...WITH ALL ACTIVITY TENDING TO
TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.  ISOLATED HAIL...SOME APPROACHING AROUND
1 INCH IN DIAMETER...WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING FROM ERN IL/WRN-SRN IND...AND NWRN-CENTRAL PARTS
OF KY.

DISCUSSION...07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK LOW IN SWRN IL WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH SRN IL TO WRN KY.  MEANWHILE...
WSR-88D VADS INDICATED A 35-40 KT WLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MO
THROUGH SRN IL/SWRN IND RESULTING IN WAA ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
ONGOING TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN IL TO SRN IND AND NWRN KY.  THIS
LLJ IS RESULTING IN A FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE ERN
EXTENT OF A MID-LEVEL STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO AID IN SUSTAINING
UPDRAFTS.  STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH
TRACKS SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  WEAK HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE
MORNING COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST 10-12Z.  THE PRESENCE
OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER CORES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO AROUND 1
INCH IN DIAMETER.  THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT MAY TEND TO
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS...SUCH THAT WW ISSUANCE
IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   40508774 40178698 39348611 38228492 37448424 37058486
            37158557 37828649 39398799 40228861 40508774





000
ACUS11 KWNS 270834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270834
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-271030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1478
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL IL...WRN-SRN IND...AND NWRN-CENTRAL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 270834Z - 271030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ELEVATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM EAST-CENTRAL
IL AND SRN IND INTO ADJACENT NWRN KY...WITH ALL ACTIVITY TENDING TO
TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.  ISOLATED HAIL...SOME APPROACHING AROUND
1 INCH IN DIAMETER...WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING FROM ERN IL/WRN-SRN IND...AND NWRN-CENTRAL PARTS
OF KY.

DISCUSSION...07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK LOW IN SWRN IL WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH SRN IL TO WRN KY.  MEANWHILE...
WSR-88D VADS INDICATED A 35-40 KT WLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MO
THROUGH SRN IL/SWRN IND RESULTING IN WAA ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
ONGOING TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN IL TO SRN IND AND NWRN KY.  THIS
LLJ IS RESULTING IN A FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE ERN
EXTENT OF A MID-LEVEL STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO AID IN SUSTAINING
UPDRAFTS.  STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH
TRACKS SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  WEAK HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE
MORNING COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST 10-12Z.  THE PRESENCE
OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER CORES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO AROUND 1
INCH IN DIAMETER.  THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT MAY TEND TO
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS...SUCH THAT WW ISSUANCE
IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   40508774 40178698 39348611 38228492 37448424 37058486
            37158557 37828649 39398799 40228861 40508774






000
ACUS11 KWNS 270834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270834
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-271030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1478
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL IL...WRN-SRN IND...AND NWRN-CENTRAL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 270834Z - 271030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ELEVATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM EAST-CENTRAL
IL AND SRN IND INTO ADJACENT NWRN KY...WITH ALL ACTIVITY TENDING TO
TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.  ISOLATED HAIL...SOME APPROACHING AROUND
1 INCH IN DIAMETER...WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING FROM ERN IL/WRN-SRN IND...AND NWRN-CENTRAL PARTS
OF KY.

DISCUSSION...07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK LOW IN SWRN IL WITH
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH SRN IL TO WRN KY.  MEANWHILE...
WSR-88D VADS INDICATED A 35-40 KT WLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MO
THROUGH SRN IL/SWRN IND RESULTING IN WAA ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
ONGOING TSTMS EXTENDING FROM ERN IL TO SRN IND AND NWRN KY.  THIS
LLJ IS RESULTING IN A FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE ERN
EXTENT OF A MID-LEVEL STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO AID IN SUSTAINING
UPDRAFTS.  STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS A CLOSED LOW/TROUGH
TRACKS SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  WEAK HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE
MORNING COMBINED WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AT LEAST 10-12Z.  THE PRESENCE
OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER CORES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO AROUND 1
INCH IN DIAMETER.  THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT MAY TEND TO
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS...SUCH THAT WW ISSUANCE
IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   40508774 40178698 39348611 38228492 37448424 37058486
            37158557 37828649 39398799 40228861 40508774





000
ACUS03 KWNS 270705
SWODY3
SPC AC 270704

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS ACROSS FLORIDA AS WELL.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS JAMES BAY...WITH
EXPANSIVE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE ERN
CONUS WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
NRN FL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD ACROSS
THE MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN STABLE CONDITIONS THERE BUT SELY WINDS
AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS NEAR A LEE TROUGH. OTHER DAYTIME
STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS FL NEAR THE FRONT.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN WY INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...
50S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST IN A NARROW PLUME FROM TX
NWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH ELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING
RESULTING IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS FROM SERN WY INTO ERN CO.
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN
MAGNITUDE FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS BUT MARGINAL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE IN A SEWD DIRECTION OVERNIGHT WITH SOME WIND
THREAT...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT IS MARGINAL.

...FL...
A FEW DIURNAL STORMS WITH ONLY A MARGINAL WIND OR HAIL THREAT ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS NRN FL NEAR THE FRONT. SHEAR WILL BE WEAK THUS
STORMS WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE.

..JEWELL.. 07/27/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 270705
SWODY3
SPC AC 270704

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH A COUPLE
STRONG STORMS ACROSS FLORIDA AS WELL.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS JAMES BAY...WITH
EXPANSIVE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE ERN
CONUS WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ACROSS
NRN FL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD ACROSS
THE MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN STABLE CONDITIONS THERE BUT SELY WINDS
AROUND THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS NEAR A LEE TROUGH. OTHER DAYTIME
STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS FL NEAR THE FRONT.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN WY INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...
50S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST IN A NARROW PLUME FROM TX
NWWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH ELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND HEATING
RESULTING IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS FROM SERN WY INTO ERN CO.
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN
MAGNITUDE FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS BUT MARGINAL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE IN A SEWD DIRECTION OVERNIGHT WITH SOME WIND
THREAT...BUT OVERALL THE THREAT IS MARGINAL.

...FL...
A FEW DIURNAL STORMS WITH ONLY A MARGINAL WIND OR HAIL THREAT ARE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS NRN FL NEAR THE FRONT. SHEAR WILL BE WEAK THUS
STORMS WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE.

..JEWELL.. 07/27/2014





000
ACUS11 KWNS 270647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270647
AZZ000-270815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1477
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 270647Z - 270815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT
ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND SRN AZ INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PRIOR TO
THE INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION.

DISCUSSION...AT 0625Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA
SHOWED A CLUSTER OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM THE PHX METRO AREA NWD TO
30 SM SOUTHEAST OF PRC MOVING WWD AT 10-15 KT...WHILE MORE ISOLATED
STORMS WERE LOCATED IN SERN AZ.  GIVEN THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IN
CENTRAL AZ AND INDICATION BY THE 00Z NSSL-4KM SUGGESTING THIS
CLUSTER WILL ADVANCE WNWWD THROUGH 09-11Z...HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS
FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH AROUND 09Z IN YAVAPAI AND WRN
MARICOPA COUNTIES.  RESIDUAL STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG EXTENDING WWD FROM THE ONGOING STORMS AND VAD WINDS
PER WSR-88D/S IN CENTRAL/SERN AZ SHOWING 20-25 KT ESELY 500 MB WINDS
SUGGESTS ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.  INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
PER OBSERVED 03Z PHX SOUNDING AND 05Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE
DISCUSSION AREA FAVOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
GIVEN A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF THIS CONTINUED SEVERE
THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON   31401099 31891148 32491317 33001367 33921392 35051331
            35031233 34911205 34341224 33841221 33431213 33231173
            32761152 32471078 32311046 31861025 31361016 31401099





000
ACUS11 KWNS 270647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270647
AZZ000-270815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1477
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 270647Z - 270815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT
ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND SRN AZ INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PRIOR TO
THE INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION.

DISCUSSION...AT 0625Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA
SHOWED A CLUSTER OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM THE PHX METRO AREA NWD TO
30 SM SOUTHEAST OF PRC MOVING WWD AT 10-15 KT...WHILE MORE ISOLATED
STORMS WERE LOCATED IN SERN AZ.  GIVEN THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IN
CENTRAL AZ AND INDICATION BY THE 00Z NSSL-4KM SUGGESTING THIS
CLUSTER WILL ADVANCE WNWWD THROUGH 09-11Z...HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS
FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH AROUND 09Z IN YAVAPAI AND WRN
MARICOPA COUNTIES.  RESIDUAL STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG EXTENDING WWD FROM THE ONGOING STORMS AND VAD WINDS
PER WSR-88D/S IN CENTRAL/SERN AZ SHOWING 20-25 KT ESELY 500 MB WINDS
SUGGESTS ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.  INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
PER OBSERVED 03Z PHX SOUNDING AND 05Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE
DISCUSSION AREA FAVOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
GIVEN A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF THIS CONTINUED SEVERE
THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON   31401099 31891148 32491317 33001367 33921392 35051331
            35031233 34911205 34341224 33841221 33431213 33231173
            32761152 32471078 32311046 31861025 31361016 31401099






000
ACUS11 KWNS 270647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270647
AZZ000-270815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1477
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 270647Z - 270815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT
ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND SRN AZ INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PRIOR TO
THE INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION.

DISCUSSION...AT 0625Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA
SHOWED A CLUSTER OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM THE PHX METRO AREA NWD TO
30 SM SOUTHEAST OF PRC MOVING WWD AT 10-15 KT...WHILE MORE ISOLATED
STORMS WERE LOCATED IN SERN AZ.  GIVEN THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IN
CENTRAL AZ AND INDICATION BY THE 00Z NSSL-4KM SUGGESTING THIS
CLUSTER WILL ADVANCE WNWWD THROUGH 09-11Z...HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS
FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT THROUGH AROUND 09Z IN YAVAPAI AND WRN
MARICOPA COUNTIES.  RESIDUAL STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG EXTENDING WWD FROM THE ONGOING STORMS AND VAD WINDS
PER WSR-88D/S IN CENTRAL/SERN AZ SHOWING 20-25 KT ESELY 500 MB WINDS
SUGGESTS ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.  INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
PER OBSERVED 03Z PHX SOUNDING AND 05Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE
DISCUSSION AREA FAVOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
GIVEN A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF THIS CONTINUED SEVERE
THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON   31401099 31891148 32491317 33001367 33921392 35051331
            35031233 34911205 34341224 33841221 33431213 33231173
            32761152 32471078 32311046 31861025 31361016 31401099





000
ACUS01 KWNS 270559
SWODY1
SPC AC 270557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OHIO AND EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SWATHS OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHERE A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
MAY ALSO NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

...SYNOPSIS...
MUCH AS HAS BEEN INDICATE BY THE MODELS...AMPLIFICATION APPEARS
UNDERWAY WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN.  AS SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
AND ROCKIES...A CLOSED LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN UNDERCUTTING THE
BLOCKING HIGH OVER NORTHERN CANADA...IS CURRENTLY TURNING SOUTHEAST
OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...TO
THE SOUTH OF THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX.  AS THIS
OCCURS...SEASONABLY STRONG /50-70 KT/ CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
/700-500 MB/ IS EXPECTED TO NOSE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.  AND AN INITIAL
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT LIKELY WILL SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY 12Z MONDAY.

WITH MOISTURE SEASONABLY HIGH BENEATH THE REMNANTS OF ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AIR STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
A LARGE PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SUFFICIENT POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY.  THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...IN THE
PRESENCE OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR.

OTHERWISE...LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU/GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND
EASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY.  ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
PROBABLE IN THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
NEAR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

...OHIO VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
REGION...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH STILL
MAY OCCUR UPSTREAM OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK...PROVIDE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EXTENT AND MODE OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TODAY.  THE WEAKENING LEAD CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE THAT EMERGED FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MONSOONAL REGIME.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS BY MIDDAY...WHERE ASSOCIATED FORCING MAY SUPPORT RENEWED
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF A DESTABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER.

IN ITS WAKE...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION...IT
APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A TRAILING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY COULD BECOME A
FOCUS FOR DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS THE MAIN UPSTREAM IMPULSE
CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IF THIS OCCURS...MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND
SHEAR...INCLUDING SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG TORNADOES.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW AT THE PRESENT
TIME...BUT THE BOUNDARY WOULD SEEM TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST TORNADO
PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WEST VIRGINIA.

THE EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ALSO DOES NOT
APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION...AS STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE
CONTINUING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT.  AGAIN THIS
LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION PRIOR TO MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR/SMITH.. 07/27/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 270559
SWODY1
SPC AC 270557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OHIO AND EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION INTO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SWATHS OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHERE A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
MAY ALSO NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

...SYNOPSIS...
MUCH AS HAS BEEN INDICATE BY THE MODELS...AMPLIFICATION APPEARS
UNDERWAY WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN.  AS SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
AND ROCKIES...A CLOSED LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN UNDERCUTTING THE
BLOCKING HIGH OVER NORTHERN CANADA...IS CURRENTLY TURNING SOUTHEAST
OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...TO
THE SOUTH OF THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX.  AS THIS
OCCURS...SEASONABLY STRONG /50-70 KT/ CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
/700-500 MB/ IS EXPECTED TO NOSE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.  AND AN INITIAL
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT LIKELY WILL SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY 12Z MONDAY.

WITH MOISTURE SEASONABLY HIGH BENEATH THE REMNANTS OF ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AIR STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
A LARGE PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SUFFICIENT POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY.  THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...IN THE
PRESENCE OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR.

OTHERWISE...LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU/GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND
EASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY.  ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
PROBABLE IN THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
NEAR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

...OHIO VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
REGION...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH STILL
MAY OCCUR UPSTREAM OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK...PROVIDE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EXTENT AND MODE OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TODAY.  THE WEAKENING LEAD CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE THAT EMERGED FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MONSOONAL REGIME.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS BY MIDDAY...WHERE ASSOCIATED FORCING MAY SUPPORT RENEWED
STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF A DESTABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER.

IN ITS WAKE...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION...IT
APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A TRAILING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY COULD BECOME A
FOCUS FOR DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS THE MAIN UPSTREAM IMPULSE
CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IF THIS OCCURS...MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND
SHEAR...INCLUDING SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG TORNADOES.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW AT THE PRESENT
TIME...BUT THE BOUNDARY WOULD SEEM TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST TORNADO
PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WEST VIRGINIA.

THE EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ALSO DOES NOT
APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION...AS STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE
CONTINUING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT.  AGAIN THIS
LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION PRIOR TO MID
AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR/SMITH.. 07/27/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 270537
SWODY2
SPC AC 270536

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS SWWD
INTO SRN GA...AL...MS AND LA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CAROLINAS AND ALSO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NEWD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WITH BROAD AREA OF STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WWD ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWD FROM
THE SURFACE LOW...MOVING OFF THE NJ/VA COAST EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT
TRAILING BACK WWD ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND INTO THE CNTRL
GULF COAST STATES.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...SRN GA...AL...MS...AND LA...
RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE
TO STRONG HEATING AND SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MLCAPE OF
3000-4000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. THE MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS
WILL BE OVER FAR ERN NC...SC...AND INTO CNTRL GA WITH 40-50 KT
MIDLEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HERE...HAIL ON
THE ORDER OF 1.50 - 2.00 INCH DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LIKELY.

TO THE W...SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER AND WILL FAVOR MORE MULTICELLULAR
STORM MODE...BUT A GREATER PROPENSITY FOR OUTFLOW AND STORM MERGERS
MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...NEW ENGLAND...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
MOVES OUT OF ERN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON GIVEN STRONG FORCING AND FAVORABLY VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BATCH OF EARLY STORMS...AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK
TORNADO WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

..JEWELL.. 07/27/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 270537
SWODY2
SPC AC 270536

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS SWWD
INTO SRN GA...AL...MS AND LA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CAROLINAS AND ALSO ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NEWD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WITH BROAD AREA OF STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT STRETCHING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WWD ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWD FROM
THE SURFACE LOW...MOVING OFF THE NJ/VA COAST EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT
TRAILING BACK WWD ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND INTO THE CNTRL
GULF COAST STATES.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...SRN GA...AL...MS...AND LA...
RATHER STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE
TO STRONG HEATING AND SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MLCAPE OF
3000-4000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. THE MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS
WILL BE OVER FAR ERN NC...SC...AND INTO CNTRL GA WITH 40-50 KT
MIDLEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HERE...HAIL ON
THE ORDER OF 1.50 - 2.00 INCH DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LIKELY.

TO THE W...SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER AND WILL FAVOR MORE MULTICELLULAR
STORM MODE...BUT A GREATER PROPENSITY FOR OUTFLOW AND STORM MERGERS
MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...NEW ENGLAND...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
MOVES OUT OF ERN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON GIVEN STRONG FORCING AND FAVORABLY VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT. IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BATCH OF EARLY STORMS...AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK
TORNADO WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

..JEWELL.. 07/27/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 270330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270329
KYZ000-INZ000-270430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1476
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444...

VALID 270329Z - 270430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES WITH PRONOUNCED
BOWING LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. AS THE LINE MOVES EAST OF WW 444...CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS
SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT.
THUS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE NEED FOR A DOWNSTREAM WW.

DISCUSSION...WELL-DEFINED BOWING SEGMENT OF SVR TSTMS WITH A HISTORY
OF SVR GUSTS/DAMAGE CONTINUES MOVING SE AT 35 KTS THRU
N-CENTRAL/CENTRAL KY. THE CONVECTIVE LINE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AXIS
OF INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG...AND WITH A
WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL THE SVR THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.  EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MOTION WOULD TAKE THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EAST OF WW 444 IN THE 04Z-0430Z TIME FRAME...AND
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCH WEAKER INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500-1000
J/KG/ AND INCREASING CINH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE OVERALL
THREAT MAY BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH TIME AS TSTMS MOVE INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN KY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED REGARDING THE NEED FOR A DOWNSTREAM WW.

..BUNTING.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...PAH...

LAT...LON   36688400 36628504 36728673 37068704 37458742 37758741
            37918709 38048630 38158550 38448494 38398431 38238382
            37648341 36918358 36688400





000
ACUS11 KWNS 270330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270329
KYZ000-INZ000-270430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1476
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444...

VALID 270329Z - 270430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES WITH PRONOUNCED
BOWING LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. AS THE LINE MOVES EAST OF WW 444...CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS
SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT.
THUS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE NEED FOR A DOWNSTREAM WW.

DISCUSSION...WELL-DEFINED BOWING SEGMENT OF SVR TSTMS WITH A HISTORY
OF SVR GUSTS/DAMAGE CONTINUES MOVING SE AT 35 KTS THRU
N-CENTRAL/CENTRAL KY. THE CONVECTIVE LINE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AXIS
OF INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG...AND WITH A
WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL THE SVR THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.  EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MOTION WOULD TAKE THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EAST OF WW 444 IN THE 04Z-0430Z TIME FRAME...AND
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCH WEAKER INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500-1000
J/KG/ AND INCREASING CINH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE OVERALL
THREAT MAY BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH TIME AS TSTMS MOVE INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN KY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED REGARDING THE NEED FOR A DOWNSTREAM WW.

..BUNTING.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...PAH...

LAT...LON   36688400 36628504 36728673 37068704 37458742 37758741
            37918709 38048630 38158550 38448494 38398431 38238382
            37648341 36918358 36688400





000
ACUS11 KWNS 270330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270329
KYZ000-INZ000-270430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1476
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444...

VALID 270329Z - 270430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES WITH PRONOUNCED
BOWING LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. AS THE LINE MOVES EAST OF WW 444...CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS
SUPPORTIVE OF ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT.
THUS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE NEED FOR A DOWNSTREAM WW.

DISCUSSION...WELL-DEFINED BOWING SEGMENT OF SVR TSTMS WITH A HISTORY
OF SVR GUSTS/DAMAGE CONTINUES MOVING SE AT 35 KTS THRU
N-CENTRAL/CENTRAL KY. THE CONVECTIVE LINE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AXIS
OF INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG...AND WITH A
WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL THE SVR THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO.  EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT MOTION WOULD TAKE THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EAST OF WW 444 IN THE 04Z-0430Z TIME FRAME...AND
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCH WEAKER INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500-1000
J/KG/ AND INCREASING CINH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE OVERALL
THREAT MAY BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH TIME AS TSTMS MOVE INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN KY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED REGARDING THE NEED FOR A DOWNSTREAM WW.

..BUNTING.. 07/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...PAH...

LAT...LON   36688400 36628504 36728673 37068704 37458742 37758741
            37918709 38048630 38158550 38448494 38398431 38238382
            37648341 36918358 36688400






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