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000
ACUS02 KWNS 231725
SWODY2
SPC AC 231725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS
VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS VICINITY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

...SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF A LARGE/LONG-WAVE UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST OVER THE U.S. DAY 2...WITH GRADUAL EWD PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM WITH TIME.  THOUGH PACIFIC RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND INTO
THE WRN U.S. WITH TIME...MOST OF THE U.S. WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD ALOFT.

AT THE SURFACE...A DEEP/OCCLUDED CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND LATER
QUEBEC...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS EARLY
AND APPROACHES/REACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...ERN CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF SERN GA...
WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD/ONGOING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED
OFFSHORE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD...A BROKEN BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
EWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT.  WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS...A WEAKLY
SUBSIDENT BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
SHORT-WAVE ENERGY SHIFTING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEAK/SUB-SEVERE IN MOST AREAS.

A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY EVOLVE FROM WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS VICINITY...WHERE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME MAXIMIZED.  THUS -- WILL
MAINTAIN MARGINAL/5% RISK AREA -- WITH THE MAIN RISK BEING LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.

..GOSS.. 11/23/2014





000
ACUS11 KWNS 231721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231720
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-231815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1941
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SERN AL AND SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231720Z - 231815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION
AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST.  TORNADO WATCH IS
BEING CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...CIRCULATIONS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HAVE
GRADUALLY INTENSIFIED OVER WRN FL PENINSULA.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS
STRUGGLED PRIMARILY DUE TO WEAK BUOYANCY...SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ON
THE ORDER OF 5.5 C/KM...THOUGH 1000 J/KG MLCAPE DOES EXTEND NWD
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF EVOLVING TSTMS.  WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING
MAXIMIZED WELL INLAND...FOCUS/VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE NARROW WARM SECTOR.  CURRENT THINKING IS
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS SFC TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE LOWER 70S.
WHILE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY EXHIBIT SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS...IT/S NOT PARTICULARLY CLEAR MORE THAN ONE OR TWO
BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE NOTED WITH MOST DISCRETE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.  WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.

..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   31508602 31418368 30018341 29608482 30228646 31508602





000
ACUS11 KWNS 231721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231720
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-231815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1941
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT SERN AL AND SWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231720Z - 231815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION
AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST.  TORNADO WATCH IS
BEING CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...CIRCULATIONS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HAVE
GRADUALLY INTENSIFIED OVER WRN FL PENINSULA.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS
STRUGGLED PRIMARILY DUE TO WEAK BUOYANCY...SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ON
THE ORDER OF 5.5 C/KM...THOUGH 1000 J/KG MLCAPE DOES EXTEND NWD
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF EVOLVING TSTMS.  WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING
MAXIMIZED WELL INLAND...FOCUS/VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE NARROW WARM SECTOR.  CURRENT THINKING IS
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS SFC TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE LOWER 70S.
WHILE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY EXHIBIT SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS...IT/S NOT PARTICULARLY CLEAR MORE THAN ONE OR TWO
BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE NOTED WITH MOST DISCRETE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.  WW IS BEING CONSIDERED.

..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   31508602 31418368 30018341 29608482 30228646 31508602





000
ACUS01 KWNS 231630
SWODY1
SPC AC 231629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE NE
GULF COAST TO THE ERN CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL AL TO PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
STATES. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH PARTS OF GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LA THIS MORNING WILL EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD
TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY TONIGHT...AS AN UPSTREAM JET STREAK
OVER NM TRANSLATES EWD TO THE MID SOUTH.  A SURFACE CYCLONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NM JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM THE KS/OK
BORDER TO MO TODAY...AND THEN NEWD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
BY EARLY MONDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD FROM THE WRN
PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY.

...NE GULF COAST AREA TODAY...
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A MARITIME TROPICAL
AIR MASS IS SPREADING NWD TO NEAR THE NE GULF COAST.  SURFACE-BASED
BUOYANCY WILL SPREAD INLAND WITH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ZONE OF ASCENT WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPREAD AWAY FROM THE NE GULF COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THROUGH ABOUT
21-00Z...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REMNANT COLD
POOL FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW/N CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...AND IN THE WAA REGIME ACROSS SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SW GA.
OBSERVED HODOGRAPHS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE TRENDED TO MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW AOA 50 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS
THE RISK FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON.

...SE GA TO THE ERN CAROLINAS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
A COOL CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY ERODE ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS
TODAY AND BE REPLACED BY A MODIFYING SW ATLANTIC AIR MASS LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.  THIS WARMING/MOISTENING WILL OCCUR WITHIN A STRONG
WAA REGIME WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SUCH THAT ROTATING STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY DEVELOPS
INLAND.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A
TORNADO WILL BE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS...LIKELY WITH
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN ONE OR MORE CONFLUENCE BANDS EMANATING FROM
THE GULF STREAM.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 11/23/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 231630
SWODY1
SPC AC 231629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE NE
GULF COAST TO THE ERN CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL AL TO PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
STATES. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH PARTS OF GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER LA THIS MORNING WILL EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD
TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY TONIGHT...AS AN UPSTREAM JET STREAK
OVER NM TRANSLATES EWD TO THE MID SOUTH.  A SURFACE CYCLONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NM JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM THE KS/OK
BORDER TO MO TODAY...AND THEN NEWD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
BY EARLY MONDAY...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD FROM THE WRN
PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY.

...NE GULF COAST AREA TODAY...
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A MARITIME TROPICAL
AIR MASS IS SPREADING NWD TO NEAR THE NE GULF COAST.  SURFACE-BASED
BUOYANCY WILL SPREAD INLAND WITH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ZONE OF ASCENT WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPREAD AWAY FROM THE NE GULF COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THROUGH ABOUT
21-00Z...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE REMNANT COLD
POOL FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW/N CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...AND IN THE WAA REGIME ACROSS SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE/SW GA.
OBSERVED HODOGRAPHS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE TRENDED TO MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH MIDLEVEL FLOW AOA 50 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS
THE RISK FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON.

...SE GA TO THE ERN CAROLINAS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
A COOL CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY ERODE ACROSS GA/CAROLINAS
TODAY AND BE REPLACED BY A MODIFYING SW ATLANTIC AIR MASS LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.  THIS WARMING/MOISTENING WILL OCCUR WITHIN A STRONG
WAA REGIME WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SUCH THAT ROTATING STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY DEVELOPS
INLAND.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A
TORNADO WILL BE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS...LIKELY WITH
STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN ONE OR MORE CONFLUENCE BANDS EMANATING FROM
THE GULF STREAM.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 11/23/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 231402
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231401
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-231500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1940
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MS / FAR SWRN AL / FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231401Z - 231500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NEXT 1-2 HRS FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...SINGLE SITE RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SOME RECENT
INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS WITHIN A CONFLUENCE BAND OF STORMS OVER
THE NERN GULF/FL PANHANDLE REGION.  A FEW STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED WEAK
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITHIN THE STRONGLY SHEARED...WAA REGIME.
FARTHER W NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER...STORMS MAY INTENSIFY THIS
MORNING AS UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE COLD POOL/S GUST FRONT.  THE AIRMASS NEAR THE MS/AL COASTS IS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 70 DEG F.  IF
CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL STORM INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS...THE POSSIBILITY FOR A WATCH WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   30368879 30968778 30778577 30068490 29698508 30318652
            30208803 30368879





000
ACUS11 KWNS 231402
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231401
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-231500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1940
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MS / FAR SWRN AL / FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231401Z - 231500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NEXT 1-2 HRS FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...SINGLE SITE RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SOME RECENT
INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS WITHIN A CONFLUENCE BAND OF STORMS OVER
THE NERN GULF/FL PANHANDLE REGION.  A FEW STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED WEAK
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITHIN THE STRONGLY SHEARED...WAA REGIME.
FARTHER W NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER...STORMS MAY INTENSIFY THIS
MORNING AS UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE COLD POOL/S GUST FRONT.  THE AIRMASS NEAR THE MS/AL COASTS IS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 70 DEG F.  IF
CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL STORM INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS...THE POSSIBILITY FOR A WATCH WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   30368879 30968778 30778577 30068490 29698508 30318652
            30208803 30368879






000
ACUS11 KWNS 231402
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231401
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-231500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1940
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MS / FAR SWRN AL / FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231401Z - 231500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NEXT 1-2 HRS FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...SINGLE SITE RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SOME RECENT
INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS WITHIN A CONFLUENCE BAND OF STORMS OVER
THE NERN GULF/FL PANHANDLE REGION.  A FEW STORMS HAVE EXHIBITED WEAK
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITHIN THE STRONGLY SHEARED...WAA REGIME.
FARTHER W NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER...STORMS MAY INTENSIFY THIS
MORNING AS UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE COLD POOL/S GUST FRONT.  THE AIRMASS NEAR THE MS/AL COASTS IS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 70 DEG F.  IF
CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL STORM INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS...THE POSSIBILITY FOR A WATCH WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   30368879 30968778 30778577 30068490 29698508 30318652
            30208803 30368879





000
ACUS01 KWNS 231253
SWODY1
SPC AC 231252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE TIDEWATER REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST TO
THE ERN CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PART OF THE NERN GULF
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST
STATES. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH PARTS OF GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...

A 90-100 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS
SEWD THROUGH THE BASE OF A DEEPENING LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL
U.S. BEFORE TURNING NEWD AND INTENSIFYING/BROADENING TONIGHT FROM
THE ARKLATEX TO CNTRL APPALACHIANS. IN RESPONSE TO THESE
DEVELOPMENTS...A LOW-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN TX AND NWRN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS NEWD THROUGH THE
LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP SEWD FROM S-CNTRL KS INTO
THE OZARK PLATEAU PRIOR TO UNDERGOING CONSIDERABLE DEEPENING WHILE
RE-CURVING AND ACCELERATING NNEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
24/12Z. MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SWEEPING
SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE MID/LOWER MS
VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND COLD FRONT...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO INTO LA
AND SRN MS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE NWD MOVEMENT OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. FARTHER E...THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES...AND MORE NWWD
INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS...

THE MASS RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING CNTRL U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL
PROMOTE THE INTENSIFICATION AND NWD EXPANSION OF A SWLY LLJ FROM THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES TODAY THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND ERN
SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS PROCESS WILL ENHANCE THE POLEWARD FLUX OF
HEAT AND MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ERN GULF BASIN AND ATLANTIC SHELF
WATERS WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN POOR LAPSE RATES WITH WARM-SECTOR
MLCAPE ONLY RISING INTO THE 250-500 J/KG RANGE.

AN MCS ONGOING AT 12Z OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE GULF
COAST TODAY WITHIN A ZONE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
PRECEDING THE WEAKENING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS EXHIBITED
SOME WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND RE-INTENSIFICATION ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE INFLOW AIR MASS GRADUALLY
DESTABILIZES. THIS NOTION IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND COMPRISED OF SUPERCELL AND BOWING
STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MCS TRACK WITH THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS THREAT DELINEATED BY
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT.

DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCS...CONFLUENCE BANDS FORMING WITHIN THE
NWD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR MAY FOSTER ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS
FROM PORTIONS OF NRN FL AND SRN/CNTRL GA INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE INTENSIFYING TROPOSPHERIC WIND AND
RESULTANT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THIS THREAT WILL BE DICTATED BY THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP AND WHETHER SUSTAINED...SEMI-DISCRETE
STORM STRUCTURES CAN EVOLVE.

ELSEWHERE...A LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
MAY MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY-DAY MCS OVER
NERN MS/NWRN AL AND WITHIN A ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.

..MEAD/MOSIER.. 11/23/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 231253
SWODY1
SPC AC 231252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE TIDEWATER REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST TO
THE ERN CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PART OF THE NERN GULF
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST
STATES. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH PARTS OF GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...

A 90-100 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS
SEWD THROUGH THE BASE OF A DEEPENING LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL
U.S. BEFORE TURNING NEWD AND INTENSIFYING/BROADENING TONIGHT FROM
THE ARKLATEX TO CNTRL APPALACHIANS. IN RESPONSE TO THESE
DEVELOPMENTS...A LOW-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN TX AND NWRN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS NEWD THROUGH THE
LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP SEWD FROM S-CNTRL KS INTO
THE OZARK PLATEAU PRIOR TO UNDERGOING CONSIDERABLE DEEPENING WHILE
RE-CURVING AND ACCELERATING NNEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
24/12Z. MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SWEEPING
SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE MID/LOWER MS
VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND COLD FRONT...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO INTO LA
AND SRN MS WILL LIKELY SLOW THE NWD MOVEMENT OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. FARTHER E...THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP NWD INTO
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES...AND MORE NWWD
INTO THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.

...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS...

THE MASS RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING CNTRL U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL
PROMOTE THE INTENSIFICATION AND NWD EXPANSION OF A SWLY LLJ FROM THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES TODAY THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS AND ERN
SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS PROCESS WILL ENHANCE THE POLEWARD FLUX OF
HEAT AND MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ERN GULF BASIN AND ATLANTIC SHELF
WATERS WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN POOR LAPSE RATES WITH WARM-SECTOR
MLCAPE ONLY RISING INTO THE 250-500 J/KG RANGE.

AN MCS ONGOING AT 12Z OVER SERN LA WILL CONTINUE EWD ALONG THE GULF
COAST TODAY WITHIN A ZONE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
PRECEDING THE WEAKENING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS EXHIBITED
SOME WEAKENING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND RE-INTENSIFICATION ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATER
THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE INFLOW AIR MASS GRADUALLY
DESTABILIZES. THIS NOTION IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND COMPRISED OF SUPERCELL AND BOWING
STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MCS TRACK WITH THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS THREAT DELINEATED BY
THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT.

DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCS...CONFLUENCE BANDS FORMING WITHIN THE
NWD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR MAY FOSTER ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS
FROM PORTIONS OF NRN FL AND SRN/CNTRL GA INTO THE CAROLINAS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE INTENSIFYING TROPOSPHERIC WIND AND
RESULTANT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THIS THREAT WILL BE DICTATED BY THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP AND WHETHER SUSTAINED...SEMI-DISCRETE
STORM STRUCTURES CAN EVOLVE.

ELSEWHERE...A LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
MAY MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY-DAY MCS OVER
NERN MS/NWRN AL AND WITHIN A ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA IMMEDIATELY
PRECEDING THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.

..MEAD/MOSIER.. 11/23/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 230809
SWODY3
SPC AC 230808

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN
FL...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY WHERE A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

...SRN AND CNTRL FL...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT 21Z ON TUESDAY AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHOW SFC
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 F. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SBCAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A THREAT
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELLS.

..BROYLES.. 11/23/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 230809
SWODY3
SPC AC 230808

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN
FL...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY WHERE A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

...SRN AND CNTRL FL...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT 21Z ON TUESDAY AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHOW SFC
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 F. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SBCAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A THREAT
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELLS.

..BROYLES.. 11/23/2014





000
ACUS11 KWNS 230734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230733
LAZ000-231000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1939
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 230733Z - 231000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WATCH WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS
OF SERN LA WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.  WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT BUT A QLCS MESOVORTEX TORNADO RISK MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
SQUALL LINE.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NWRN
GULF DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN AN INTENSE QLCS TRACKING
ENEWD WITH THE EAST BREAKS OIL PLATFORM AND KHQI OBSERVING SEVERE
GUSTS /75 AND 51 KT RESPECTIVELY/.  THE MARINE WARM FRONT IS ROUGHLY
30 MI FROM THE LA COAST AND WILL LIKELY PENETRATE THE COAST AND
TERREBONNE PARISH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MESOLOW OVER THE
NWRN GULF DEVELOPS NEWD INTO SWRN LA.  A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
S OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT.
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS THE BOWING SEGMENT WITHIN THE QLCS
APPROACHING THE COAST OF ST. MARY AND TERREBONNE PARISH PRIOR TO
10Z.  THE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS IN THE FORM OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE ACROSS SERN LA AS THE WARM FRONT
ADVANCES NWD AND AS THE QLCS APPROACHES.  GIVEN THE MOIST AND
STRONGLY SHEARED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE...A QLCS TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED AND STRONGER MESOVORTEX.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29599213 29889088 30208975 29708888 29078906 29009052
            29309190 29599213





000
ACUS11 KWNS 230734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230733
LAZ000-231000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1939
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 230733Z - 231000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WATCH WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS
OF SERN LA WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.  WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT BUT A QLCS MESOVORTEX TORNADO RISK MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
SQUALL LINE.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NWRN
GULF DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN AN INTENSE QLCS TRACKING
ENEWD WITH THE EAST BREAKS OIL PLATFORM AND KHQI OBSERVING SEVERE
GUSTS /75 AND 51 KT RESPECTIVELY/.  THE MARINE WARM FRONT IS ROUGHLY
30 MI FROM THE LA COAST AND WILL LIKELY PENETRATE THE COAST AND
TERREBONNE PARISH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MESOLOW OVER THE
NWRN GULF DEVELOPS NEWD INTO SWRN LA.  A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
S OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT.
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS THE BOWING SEGMENT WITHIN THE QLCS
APPROACHING THE COAST OF ST. MARY AND TERREBONNE PARISH PRIOR TO
10Z.  THE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS IN THE FORM OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE ACROSS SERN LA AS THE WARM FRONT
ADVANCES NWD AND AS THE QLCS APPROACHES.  GIVEN THE MOIST AND
STRONGLY SHEARED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE...A QLCS TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED AND STRONGER MESOVORTEX.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29599213 29889088 30208975 29708888 29078906 29009052
            29309190 29599213






000
ACUS11 KWNS 230734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230733
LAZ000-231000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1939
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 230733Z - 231000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WATCH WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS
OF SERN LA WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.  WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT BUT A QLCS MESOVORTEX TORNADO RISK MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
SQUALL LINE.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NWRN
GULF DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE SHOWN AN INTENSE QLCS TRACKING
ENEWD WITH THE EAST BREAKS OIL PLATFORM AND KHQI OBSERVING SEVERE
GUSTS /75 AND 51 KT RESPECTIVELY/.  THE MARINE WARM FRONT IS ROUGHLY
30 MI FROM THE LA COAST AND WILL LIKELY PENETRATE THE COAST AND
TERREBONNE PARISH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MESOLOW OVER THE
NWRN GULF DEVELOPS NEWD INTO SWRN LA.  A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
S OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT.
LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS THE BOWING SEGMENT WITHIN THE QLCS
APPROACHING THE COAST OF ST. MARY AND TERREBONNE PARISH PRIOR TO
10Z.  THE THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS IN THE FORM OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE ACROSS SERN LA AS THE WARM FRONT
ADVANCES NWD AND AS THE QLCS APPROACHES.  GIVEN THE MOIST AND
STRONGLY SHEARED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE...A QLCS TORNADO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED AND STRONGER MESOVORTEX.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29599213 29889088 30208975 29708888 29078906 29009052
            29309190 29599213





000
ACUS01 KWNS 230719
SWODY1
SPC AC 230718

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INLAND TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHWEST GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AREA
FROM LA TO NC AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHERN FL...

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING ERROR

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES WILL SPREAD EAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST FROM
LOUISIANA EARLY TODAY TO PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST...ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION...AND TO THE
TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE
WILL BE EJECTED NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS THE LEADING WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED INTENSE 500MB WINDS OF 70-75KT SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST
LA TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE DAY...A BROADER REGION
OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDWEST AND RESULT IN A DEEPENING
SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

...GULF COAST TO SOUTHEAST...
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT STORM-SCALE GUIDANCE SCENARIOS
IN THE EVOLUTION OF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SAME
GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED GENERALLY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING POOR AIRMASS
QUALITY AMIDST THE CONVECTION OVER LAND AREAS...AS WELL AS WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT AHEAD OF A POTENTIALLY BETTER ORGANIZED COMMA-HEAD
AND ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPACT EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT...IN ADDITION
TO OUTRUNNING TRUE TROPICAL MARITIME AIRMASS RETURN TO THE IMMEDIATE
GULF COAST OF LA...THE LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE MAY LOSE INTENSITY
DURING THE MORNING AS IT OUTRUNS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

THE DECAY OR DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF THE LEADING CONVECTIVE BAND
MAY PERMIT GREATER AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM
NEAR AND EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER TRENDS IN SHOWING A NARROW AXIS
OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /SBCAPE 1000-1500 J PER KG/ MAY EVOLVE
FROM THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE INLAND TO PERHAPS SOUTHWEST GA
COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MASS AND
MOISTURE FLUXES IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF 70-75KT
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK. AT THE SAME TIME...LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR
FORCED ASCENT AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AS
THE MID/UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER
UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION.

DESPITE SOME OF THESE LIMITING FACTORS...AS STRONGER/REMAINING UPPER
FORCING AND WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...ANY CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WILL BE FAST-MOVING
AND POSE A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO AND CONSISTENCY IN THE SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST
MODEST SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION IN A NARROW CORRIDOR COINCIDENT
WITH INTENSE LOW THROUGH MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS FROM THE WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE INLAND TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN AL/GA...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO
INITIATE A SMALL 10 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY OVER THESE AREAS
ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SLIGHT-RISK AREA...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED. STRONGER DEEP ASCENT WILL EXIST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING CYCLONE
AND IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL JET...LIMITED
BUOYANCY WILL LEAD TO A LOWER SEVERE WEATHER  PROBABILITY WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR -- ESPECIALLY AS  MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST INTERRUPTS POLEWARD
FLUXES OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR.

FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...STRONGER LATENT
HEAT FLUXES ATOP THE GULF STREAM MAY SUPPORT MORE ROBUST
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN PRESENCE OF INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET AND
POTENTIALLY LARGE HELICITY...LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..CARBIN/LEITMAN.. 11/23/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 230719
SWODY1
SPC AC 230718

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INLAND TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHWEST GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AREA
FROM LA TO NC AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHERN FL...

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING ERROR

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES WILL SPREAD EAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST FROM
LOUISIANA EARLY TODAY TO PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST...ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION...AND TO THE
TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE
WILL BE EJECTED NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS THE LEADING WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED INTENSE 500MB WINDS OF 70-75KT SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST
LA TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE DAY...A BROADER REGION
OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDWEST AND RESULT IN A DEEPENING
SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

...GULF COAST TO SOUTHEAST...
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT STORM-SCALE GUIDANCE SCENARIOS
IN THE EVOLUTION OF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SAME
GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED GENERALLY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING POOR AIRMASS
QUALITY AMIDST THE CONVECTION OVER LAND AREAS...AS WELL AS WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT AHEAD OF A POTENTIALLY BETTER ORGANIZED COMMA-HEAD
AND ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPACT EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT...IN ADDITION
TO OUTRUNNING TRUE TROPICAL MARITIME AIRMASS RETURN TO THE IMMEDIATE
GULF COAST OF LA...THE LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE MAY LOSE INTENSITY
DURING THE MORNING AS IT OUTRUNS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

THE DECAY OR DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF THE LEADING CONVECTIVE BAND
MAY PERMIT GREATER AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM
NEAR AND EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER TRENDS IN SHOWING A NARROW AXIS
OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /SBCAPE 1000-1500 J PER KG/ MAY EVOLVE
FROM THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE INLAND TO PERHAPS SOUTHWEST GA
COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MASS AND
MOISTURE FLUXES IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF 70-75KT
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK. AT THE SAME TIME...LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR
FORCED ASCENT AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AS
THE MID/UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER
UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION.

DESPITE SOME OF THESE LIMITING FACTORS...AS STRONGER/REMAINING UPPER
FORCING AND WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...ANY CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WILL BE FAST-MOVING
AND POSE A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO AND CONSISTENCY IN THE SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST
MODEST SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION IN A NARROW CORRIDOR COINCIDENT
WITH INTENSE LOW THROUGH MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS FROM THE WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE INLAND TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN AL/GA...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO
INITIATE A SMALL 10 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY OVER THESE AREAS
ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SLIGHT-RISK AREA...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED. STRONGER DEEP ASCENT WILL EXIST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING CYCLONE
AND IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL JET...LIMITED
BUOYANCY WILL LEAD TO A LOWER SEVERE WEATHER  PROBABILITY WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR -- ESPECIALLY AS  MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST INTERRUPTS POLEWARD
FLUXES OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR.

FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...STRONGER LATENT
HEAT FLUXES ATOP THE GULF STREAM MAY SUPPORT MORE ROBUST
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN PRESENCE OF INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET AND
POTENTIALLY LARGE HELICITY...LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..CARBIN/LEITMAN.. 11/23/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 230615
SWODY2
SPC AC 230614

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN
CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

...CAROLINAS...
A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE MS
VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN
PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F ACROSS MUCH OF ERN GA
AND THE ERN CAROLINAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY
AT DAYBREAK ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST OF
NC. IN ADDITION TO THE MORNING CONVECTION...THE NAM AND GFS
SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO REDEVELOP STORMS FURTHER INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS...THE CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS ERN
NC AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH REDEVELOPMENT AGAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES.


NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT CHARLESTON SC BY AFTERNOON SHOW MUCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT AND SUBSTANTIAL
SPEED SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB. DUE TO THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE
DOMINANT STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MULTICELL. THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING 2.00 INCHES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WET
DOWNBURSTS.

..BROYLES.. 11/23/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 230615
SWODY2
SPC AC 230614

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN
CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

...CAROLINAS...
A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE MS
VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN
PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F ACROSS MUCH OF ERN GA
AND THE ERN CAROLINAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY
AT DAYBREAK ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST OF
NC. IN ADDITION TO THE MORNING CONVECTION...THE NAM AND GFS
SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO REDEVELOP STORMS FURTHER INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS...THE CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS ERN
NC AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH REDEVELOPMENT AGAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES.


NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT CHARLESTON SC BY AFTERNOON SHOW MUCAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT AND SUBSTANTIAL
SPEED SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB. DUE TO THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE
DOMINANT STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MULTICELL. THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING 2.00 INCHES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WET
DOWNBURSTS.

..BROYLES.. 11/23/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 230601
SWODY1
SPC AC 230559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INLAND TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHWEST GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AREA
FROM LA TO NC AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHERN FL...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES WILL SPREAD EAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST FROM
LOUISIANA EARLY TODAY TO PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIS
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST...ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION...AND TO THE
TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE
WILL BE EJECTED NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS THE LEADING WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED INTENSE 500MB WINDS OF 70-75KT SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST
LA TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE DAY...A BROADER REGION
OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDWEST AND RESULT IN A DEEPENING
SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

...GULF COAST TO SOUTHEAST...
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT STORM-SCALE GUIDANCE SCENARIOS
IN THE EVOLUTION OF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SAME
GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED GENERALLY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING POOR AIRMASS
QUALITY AMIDST THE CONVECTION OVER LAND AREAS...AS WELL AS WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT AHEAD OF A POTENTIALLY BETTER ORGANIZED COMMA-HEAD
AND ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPACT EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT...IN ADDITION
TO OUTRUNNING TRUE TROPICAL MARITIME AIRMASS RETURN TO THE IMMEDIATE
GULF COAST OF LA...THE LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE MAY LOSE INTENSITY
DURING THE MORNING AS IT OUTRUNS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

THE DECAY OR DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF THE LEADING CONVECTIVE BAND
MAY PERMIT GREATER AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM
NEAR AND EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER TRENDS IN SHOWING A NARROW AXIS
OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /SBCAPE 1000-1500 J PER KG/ MAY EVOLVE
FROM THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE INLAND TO PERHAPS SOUTHWEST GA
COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MASS AND
MOISTURE FLUXES IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF 70-75KT
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK. AT THE SAME TIME...LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR
FORCED ASCENT AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AS
THE MID/UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER
UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION.

DESPITE SOME OF THESE LIMITING FACTORS...AS STRONGER/REMAINING UPPER
FORCING AND WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...ANY CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WILL BE FAST-MOVING
AND POSE A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO AND CONSISTENCY IN THE SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST
MODEST SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION IN A NARROW CORRIDOR COINCIDENT
WITH INTENSE LOW THROUGH MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS FROM THE WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE INLAND TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN AL/GA...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO
INITIATE A SMALL 10 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY OVER THESE AREAS
ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SLIGHT-RISK AREA...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED. STRONGER DEEP ASCENT WILL EXIST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING CYCLONE
AND IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL JET...LIMITED
BUOYANCY WILL LEAD TO A LOWER SEVERE WEATHER  PROBABILITY WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR -- ESPECIALLY AS  MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST INTERRUPTS POLEWARD
FLUXES OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR.

FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...STRONGER LATENT
HEAT FLUXES ATOP THE GULF STREAM MAY SUPPORT MORE ROBUST
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN PRESENCE OF INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET AND
POTENTIALLY LARGE HELICITY...LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..CARBIN/LEITMAN.. 11/23/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 230601
SWODY1
SPC AC 230559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INLAND TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHWEST GA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AREA
FROM LA TO NC AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHERN FL...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES WILL SPREAD EAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST FROM
LOUISIANA EARLY TODAY TO PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIS
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST...ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION...AND TO THE
TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE
WILL BE EJECTED NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS THE LEADING WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED INTENSE 500MB WINDS OF 70-75KT SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST
LA TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE DAY...A BROADER REGION
OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDWEST AND RESULT IN A DEEPENING
SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

...GULF COAST TO SOUTHEAST...
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT STORM-SCALE GUIDANCE SCENARIOS
IN THE EVOLUTION OF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SAME
GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED GENERALLY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING POOR AIRMASS
QUALITY AMIDST THE CONVECTION OVER LAND AREAS...AS WELL AS WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT AHEAD OF A POTENTIALLY BETTER ORGANIZED COMMA-HEAD
AND ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPACT EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT...IN ADDITION
TO OUTRUNNING TRUE TROPICAL MARITIME AIRMASS RETURN TO THE IMMEDIATE
GULF COAST OF LA...THE LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE MAY LOSE INTENSITY
DURING THE MORNING AS IT OUTRUNS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

THE DECAY OR DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF THE LEADING CONVECTIVE BAND
MAY PERMIT GREATER AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM
NEAR AND EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER TRENDS IN SHOWING A NARROW AXIS
OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /SBCAPE 1000-1500 J PER KG/ MAY EVOLVE
FROM THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE INLAND TO PERHAPS SOUTHWEST GA
COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MASS AND
MOISTURE FLUXES IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF 70-75KT
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK. AT THE SAME TIME...LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR
FORCED ASCENT AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AS
THE MID/UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER
UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION.

DESPITE SOME OF THESE LIMITING FACTORS...AS STRONGER/REMAINING UPPER
FORCING AND WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...ANY CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WILL BE FAST-MOVING
AND POSE A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO AND CONSISTENCY IN THE SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST
MODEST SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION IN A NARROW CORRIDOR COINCIDENT
WITH INTENSE LOW THROUGH MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS FROM THE WESTERN FL
PANHANDLE INLAND TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN AL/GA...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO
INITIATE A SMALL 10 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY OVER THESE AREAS
ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SLIGHT-RISK AREA...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED. STRONGER DEEP ASCENT WILL EXIST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING CYCLONE
AND IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL JET...LIMITED
BUOYANCY WILL LEAD TO A LOWER SEVERE WEATHER  PROBABILITY WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR -- ESPECIALLY AS  MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST INTERRUPTS POLEWARD
FLUXES OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR.

FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...STRONGER LATENT
HEAT FLUXES ATOP THE GULF STREAM MAY SUPPORT MORE ROBUST
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN PRESENCE OF INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET AND
POTENTIALLY LARGE HELICITY...LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..CARBIN/LEITMAN.. 11/23/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 230548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230547
LAZ000-TXZ000-230745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1938
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...IMMEDIATE UPPER TX COAST/FAR SOUTHERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 230547Z - 230745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LIMITED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD DEVELOP
INLAND INTO PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE UPPER TX COAST/FAR SOUTHERN LA
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MOST INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
DECIDEDLY OFFSHORE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS.

DISCUSSION...AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD OVER SOUTH TX...A
SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
LATE THIS EVENING /1145 PM CST/. KHGX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
INCREASING COMMONALITY OF SQUALL LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES
OFFSHORE. A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION
PRECEDING THE SQUALL LINE ROUGHLY APPEARS TO DEMARCATE THE WARM
FRONT AND RICHER MARITIME AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F PER OCEANIC OBSERVATIONS. INLAND-DEVELOPING
MESOVORTICES CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
UPPER TX COAST/FAR SOUTHWEST LA COAST EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
ANY SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT-ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BAND AND RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN LA COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THE
COASTAL-GRAZING SQUALL LINE/EMBEDDED BOWS WITH AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
THREAT POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING INLAND.

..GUYER/HART.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29349506 29779496 30079380 29749119 29249092 29169116
            28929263 28089408 29349506





000
ACUS11 KWNS 230548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230547
LAZ000-TXZ000-230745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1938
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...IMMEDIATE UPPER TX COAST/FAR SOUTHERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 230547Z - 230745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LIMITED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD DEVELOP
INLAND INTO PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE UPPER TX COAST/FAR SOUTHERN LA
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MOST INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
DECIDEDLY OFFSHORE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS.

DISCUSSION...AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD OVER SOUTH TX...A
SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
LATE THIS EVENING /1145 PM CST/. KHGX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
INCREASING COMMONALITY OF SQUALL LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES
OFFSHORE. A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION
PRECEDING THE SQUALL LINE ROUGHLY APPEARS TO DEMARCATE THE WARM
FRONT AND RICHER MARITIME AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F PER OCEANIC OBSERVATIONS. INLAND-DEVELOPING
MESOVORTICES CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
UPPER TX COAST/FAR SOUTHWEST LA COAST EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
ANY SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT-ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BAND AND RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN LA COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THE
COASTAL-GRAZING SQUALL LINE/EMBEDDED BOWS WITH AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
THREAT POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING INLAND.

..GUYER/HART.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29349506 29779496 30079380 29749119 29249092 29169116
            28929263 28089408 29349506





000
ACUS11 KWNS 230548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230547
LAZ000-TXZ000-230745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1938
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...IMMEDIATE UPPER TX COAST/FAR SOUTHERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 230547Z - 230745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LIMITED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT COULD DEVELOP
INLAND INTO PARTS OF THE IMMEDIATE UPPER TX COAST/FAR SOUTHERN LA
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MOST INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
DECIDEDLY OFFSHORE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS.

DISCUSSION...AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD OVER SOUTH TX...A
SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
LATE THIS EVENING /1145 PM CST/. KHGX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
INCREASING COMMONALITY OF SQUALL LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES
OFFSHORE. A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF CONVECTION
PRECEDING THE SQUALL LINE ROUGHLY APPEARS TO DEMARCATE THE WARM
FRONT AND RICHER MARITIME AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F PER OCEANIC OBSERVATIONS. INLAND-DEVELOPING
MESOVORTICES CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
UPPER TX COAST/FAR SOUTHWEST LA COAST EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
ANY SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT-ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BAND AND RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN LA COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THE
COASTAL-GRAZING SQUALL LINE/EMBEDDED BOWS WITH AT LEAST SOME SEVERE
THREAT POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING INLAND.

..GUYER/HART.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29349506 29779496 30079380 29749119 29249092 29169116
            28929263 28089408 29349506






000
ACUS11 KWNS 230352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230351
TXZ000-230445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1937
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL/COASTAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557...

VALID 230351Z - 230445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED AT 04Z. A LOCALIZED/RELATIVELY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY
CONTINUE IN THE SHORT-TERM ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AND/OR TONIGHT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TX COAST. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH DOES NOT
CURRENTLY APPEAR NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY SHORT LINEAR SEGMENT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EAST OF I-35 IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AS OF 945PM CST. GENERAL DECREASING
TRENDS IN CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING/STORM TOPS HAVE BEEN NOTED...AND A
CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED GIVEN A
NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. MEANWHILE...A
SUBSTANTIAL QUASI-LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE GRAZING PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX
COAST. SOME SEVERE RISK CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE MIDDLE/UPPER TX...HOWEVER THE MCS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
OFFSHORE...WHILE OTHERWISE TENDING TO OUTPACE THE CORRIDOR OF
GREATEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX/STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

..GUYER.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON   29599715 30439702 30629609 30239395 29489413 26569649
            27309725 28469606 29599715





000
ACUS11 KWNS 230352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230351
TXZ000-230445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1937
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL/COASTAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557...

VALID 230351Z - 230445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED AT 04Z. A LOCALIZED/RELATIVELY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY
CONTINUE IN THE SHORT-TERM ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AND/OR TONIGHT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TX COAST. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH DOES NOT
CURRENTLY APPEAR NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY SHORT LINEAR SEGMENT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EAST OF I-35 IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AS OF 945PM CST. GENERAL DECREASING
TRENDS IN CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING/STORM TOPS HAVE BEEN NOTED...AND A
CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED GIVEN A
NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. MEANWHILE...A
SUBSTANTIAL QUASI-LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE GRAZING PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX
COAST. SOME SEVERE RISK CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE MIDDLE/UPPER TX...HOWEVER THE MCS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
OFFSHORE...WHILE OTHERWISE TENDING TO OUTPACE THE CORRIDOR OF
GREATEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX/STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

..GUYER.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON   29599715 30439702 30629609 30239395 29489413 26569649
            27309725 28469606 29599715






000
ACUS11 KWNS 230352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230351
TXZ000-230445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1937
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL/COASTAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557...

VALID 230351Z - 230445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED AT 04Z. A LOCALIZED/RELATIVELY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY
CONTINUE IN THE SHORT-TERM ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AND/OR TONIGHT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TX COAST. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH DOES NOT
CURRENTLY APPEAR NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY SHORT LINEAR SEGMENT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EAST OF I-35 IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TX AS OF 945PM CST. GENERAL DECREASING
TRENDS IN CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING/STORM TOPS HAVE BEEN NOTED...AND A
CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED GIVEN A
NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. MEANWHILE...A
SUBSTANTIAL QUASI-LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO/ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE GRAZING PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX
COAST. SOME SEVERE RISK CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE MIDDLE/UPPER TX...HOWEVER THE MCS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
OFFSHORE...WHILE OTHERWISE TENDING TO OUTPACE THE CORRIDOR OF
GREATEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX/STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

..GUYER.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON   29599715 30439702 30629609 30239395 29489413 26569649
            27309725 28469606 29599715





000
ACUS11 KWNS 230136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230135
TXZ000-230300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY/MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 230135Z - 230300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD THIS EVENING ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY AND THE MIDDLE TX COAST. AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED /BEYOND LOCAL EXTENSION/
GIVEN THE EXPECTED MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE RISK...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS TO THE
CONTRARY.

DISCUSSION...TWO CORRIDORS OF GENERAL UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE TO OCCUR THIS EVENING /AS OF 715 PM
CST/...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX JUST WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE
CORPUS CHRISTI VICINITY...AND TO A LESS-ORGANIZED EXTENT...IN AREAS
NEAR/JUST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WEST OF AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO. THE AIR
MASS PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...WITH THE 00Z CORPUS CHRISTI OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATIVE
OF 1900+ J/KG MLCAPE. SCENARIO COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS SOME ADDITIONAL COASTAL AREAS
NOT CURRENTLY COVERED UNDER SEVERE TSTM WATCH 557...HOWEVER CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT MUCH OF THE NEAR-COASTAL CONVECTION WILL TEND TO BE
SHUNTED OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

FARTHER NORTH-NORTHWEST IN VICINITY OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY/I-35
VICINITY...CONTINUED STORM MERGERS /AIDED BY SURGING OUTFLOW/ WITHIN
A RELATIVELY MOIST/MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...NEAR/WSW OF AN
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE THREAT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A SLOWLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER
AND WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE RISK RELATIVELY
MARGINAL/LOCALIZED THIS EVENING.

..GUYER/HART.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29879881 30209837 30409782 29679720 29359640 29369596
            29079515 28239658 27329746 28519816 29879881





000
ACUS11 KWNS 230136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230135
TXZ000-230300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY/MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 230135Z - 230300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD THIS EVENING ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY AND THE MIDDLE TX COAST. AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED /BEYOND LOCAL EXTENSION/
GIVEN THE EXPECTED MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE RISK...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS TO THE
CONTRARY.

DISCUSSION...TWO CORRIDORS OF GENERAL UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE TO OCCUR THIS EVENING /AS OF 715 PM
CST/...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX JUST WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE
CORPUS CHRISTI VICINITY...AND TO A LESS-ORGANIZED EXTENT...IN AREAS
NEAR/JUST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WEST OF AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO. THE AIR
MASS PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...WITH THE 00Z CORPUS CHRISTI OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATIVE
OF 1900+ J/KG MLCAPE. SCENARIO COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS SOME ADDITIONAL COASTAL AREAS
NOT CURRENTLY COVERED UNDER SEVERE TSTM WATCH 557...HOWEVER CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT MUCH OF THE NEAR-COASTAL CONVECTION WILL TEND TO BE
SHUNTED OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

FARTHER NORTH-NORTHWEST IN VICINITY OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY/I-35
VICINITY...CONTINUED STORM MERGERS /AIDED BY SURGING OUTFLOW/ WITHIN
A RELATIVELY MOIST/MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...NEAR/WSW OF AN
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE THREAT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A SLOWLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER
AND WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE RISK RELATIVELY
MARGINAL/LOCALIZED THIS EVENING.

..GUYER/HART.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29879881 30209837 30409782 29679720 29359640 29369596
            29079515 28239658 27329746 28519816 29879881






000
ACUS11 KWNS 230136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230135
TXZ000-230300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY/MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 230135Z - 230300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP GENERALLY EASTWARD THIS EVENING ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY AND THE MIDDLE TX COAST. AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED /BEYOND LOCAL EXTENSION/
GIVEN THE EXPECTED MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE RISK...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS TO THE
CONTRARY.

DISCUSSION...TWO CORRIDORS OF GENERAL UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE TO OCCUR THIS EVENING /AS OF 715 PM
CST/...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX JUST WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE
CORPUS CHRISTI VICINITY...AND TO A LESS-ORGANIZED EXTENT...IN AREAS
NEAR/JUST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WEST OF AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO. THE AIR
MASS PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...WITH THE 00Z CORPUS CHRISTI OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATIVE
OF 1900+ J/KG MLCAPE. SCENARIO COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS SOME ADDITIONAL COASTAL AREAS
NOT CURRENTLY COVERED UNDER SEVERE TSTM WATCH 557...HOWEVER CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT MUCH OF THE NEAR-COASTAL CONVECTION WILL TEND TO BE
SHUNTED OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

FARTHER NORTH-NORTHWEST IN VICINITY OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY/I-35
VICINITY...CONTINUED STORM MERGERS /AIDED BY SURGING OUTFLOW/ WITHIN
A RELATIVELY MOIST/MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...NEAR/WSW OF AN
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE THREAT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A SLOWLY COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER
AND WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE RISK RELATIVELY
MARGINAL/LOCALIZED THIS EVENING.

..GUYER/HART.. 11/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29879881 30209837 30409782 29679720 29359640 29369596
            29079515 28239658 27329746 28519816 29879881





000
ACUS01 KWNS 230100
SWODY1
SPC AC 230059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN TX TO THE
MID/UPPER TX COASTAL AREAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHERN
LA...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
TEXAS INTO MID AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS.

...SOUTHERN TEXAS TO SOUTHERN LA OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...
A POTENT MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 70KT 500MB SPEED
MAX WILL PIVOT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TO SABINE RIVER/NORTHWEST GULF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN ACTING ON AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH TX AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF
MEXICO TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...THE MOST INTENSE OF
WHICH WAS SITUATED EAST OF THE CONCHO RIVER AND SOUTH OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU.

TRUE WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH TX WAS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG SAMPLED WELL BY 00Z CRP SOUNDING AND LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT WAS LIKELY SITUATED FROM NEAR
SAN MARCOS SOUTHEAST TO OFF THE TX GULF COAST BETWEEN CRP AND GLS.

INDICATIONS IN LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUPPORT THE
CONTINUING EVOLUTION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ORGANIZED IN LINE
SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS...THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. GREATEST HAIL/WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
IN THE WARM SECTOR WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST TX COAST AND OFFSHORE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING SPREAD EAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
GULF. ONE OR TWO FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MAY EMERGE
FROM THE LARGER-SCALE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALL
CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SURFACE-BASED STORMS INLAND ACROSS THE LA GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE FORM OF BOWING
SEGMENTS MAY CERTAINLY EVOLVE ATOP THE STABLE/DECOUPLED BOUNDARY
LAYER...THE PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES WITH THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS STORMS SPREADS INLAND AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE LA GULF COAST REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK.

..CARBIN.. 11/23/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 230100
SWODY1
SPC AC 230059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN TX TO THE
MID/UPPER TX COASTAL AREAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO SOUTHERN
LA...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
TEXAS INTO MID AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS.

...SOUTHERN TEXAS TO SOUTHERN LA OVERNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...
A POTENT MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 70KT 500MB SPEED
MAX WILL PIVOT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TO SABINE RIVER/NORTHWEST GULF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN ACTING ON AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH TX AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF
MEXICO TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...THE MOST INTENSE OF
WHICH WAS SITUATED EAST OF THE CONCHO RIVER AND SOUTH OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU.

TRUE WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH TX WAS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG SAMPLED WELL BY 00Z CRP SOUNDING AND LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT WAS LIKELY SITUATED FROM NEAR
SAN MARCOS SOUTHEAST TO OFF THE TX GULF COAST BETWEEN CRP AND GLS.

INDICATIONS IN LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUPPORT THE
CONTINUING EVOLUTION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ORGANIZED IN LINE
SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS...THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. GREATEST HAIL/WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
IN THE WARM SECTOR WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST TX COAST AND OFFSHORE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING SPREAD EAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
GULF. ONE OR TWO FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MAY EMERGE
FROM THE LARGER-SCALE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALL
CURRENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SURFACE-BASED STORMS INLAND ACROSS THE LA GULF COAST THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE FORM OF BOWING
SEGMENTS MAY CERTAINLY EVOLVE ATOP THE STABLE/DECOUPLED BOUNDARY
LAYER...THE PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES WITH THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS STORMS SPREADS INLAND AND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE LA GULF COAST REGION THROUGH DAYBREAK.

..CARBIN.. 11/23/2014





000
ACUS11 KWNS 222332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222331
TXZ000-230030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1935
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0531 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557...

VALID 222331Z - 230030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS WATCH 557 THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD AROUND 40-50 MPH TOWARD THE I-10 AND I-37 CORRIDOR. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE LATER THIS
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS
AND THE GENERATION OF LARGE HAIL...SOME POSSIBLY AS LARGE AS
BASEBALL SIZE. ADDITIONALLY...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAST
STORM MOTION OF AROUND 40-50 KTS TOWARD THE EAST COULD ALLOW FOR
STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING.

..LEITMAN.. 11/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   28200031 28830048 29780066 30130053 30260021 30249994
            30079958 29589899 26789738 26029706 25879725 25869762
            26129835 26409910 27209950 28200031





000
ACUS11 KWNS 222332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222331
TXZ000-230030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1935
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0531 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557...

VALID 222331Z - 230030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS WATCH 557 THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD AROUND 40-50 MPH TOWARD THE I-10 AND I-37 CORRIDOR. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE LATER THIS
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS
AND THE GENERATION OF LARGE HAIL...SOME POSSIBLY AS LARGE AS
BASEBALL SIZE. ADDITIONALLY...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAST
STORM MOTION OF AROUND 40-50 KTS TOWARD THE EAST COULD ALLOW FOR
STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING.

..LEITMAN.. 11/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   28200031 28830048 29780066 30130053 30260021 30249994
            30079958 29589899 26789738 26029706 25879725 25869762
            26129835 26409910 27209950 28200031





000
ACUS11 KWNS 222332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222331
TXZ000-230030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1935
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0531 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557...

VALID 222331Z - 230030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 557
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS WATCH 557 THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD AROUND 40-50 MPH TOWARD THE I-10 AND I-37 CORRIDOR. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE LATER THIS
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS
AND THE GENERATION OF LARGE HAIL...SOME POSSIBLY AS LARGE AS
BASEBALL SIZE. ADDITIONALLY...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAST
STORM MOTION OF AROUND 40-50 KTS TOWARD THE EAST COULD ALLOW FOR
STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING.

..LEITMAN.. 11/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   28200031 28830048 29780066 30130053 30260021 30249994
            30079958 29589899 26789738 26029706 25879725 25869762
            26129835 26409910 27209950 28200031






000
ACUS11 KWNS 221946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221945
TXZ000-222045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1934
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...RIO GRANDE VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221945Z - 222045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND SPREAD INTO ADJACENT REGIONS OF
SOUTH TX.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO CAN BE
EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS ARE INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS...NWD INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF
WEST TX.  LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH NUMEROUS/DEEPENING
CU AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF
MID-LEVEL JET NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.  HRRR DATA SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MATURE AS IT APPROACHES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDE ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.  STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ACROSS SOUTH TX SUGGEST
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPWARD EVOLVING SQUALL LINE MAY
ULTIMATELY BE NOTED AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING SPREADS TOWARD THE
LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO CAN BE EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BY 21Z.

..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 11/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...

LAT...LON   30319998 28829855 26039752 26039915 29570148 30319998





000
ACUS11 KWNS 221946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221945
TXZ000-222045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1934
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...RIO GRANDE VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221945Z - 222045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND SPREAD INTO ADJACENT REGIONS OF
SOUTH TX.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO CAN BE
EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS ARE INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS...NWD INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF
WEST TX.  LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH NUMEROUS/DEEPENING
CU AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF
MID-LEVEL JET NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.  HRRR DATA SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MATURE AS IT APPROACHES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDE ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.  STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ACROSS SOUTH TX SUGGEST
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPWARD EVOLVING SQUALL LINE MAY
ULTIMATELY BE NOTED AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING SPREADS TOWARD THE
LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO CAN BE EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BY 21Z.

..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 11/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...

LAT...LON   30319998 28829855 26039752 26039915 29570148 30319998





000
ACUS11 KWNS 221946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221945
TXZ000-222045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1934
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0145 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...RIO GRANDE VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221945Z - 222045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND SPREAD INTO ADJACENT REGIONS OF
SOUTH TX.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO CAN BE
EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS ARE INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS...NWD INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF
WEST TX.  LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH NUMEROUS/DEEPENING
CU AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF
MID-LEVEL JET NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.  HRRR DATA SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MATURE AS IT APPROACHES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RESIDE ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS.  STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ACROSS SOUTH TX SUGGEST
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH UPWARD EVOLVING SQUALL LINE MAY
ULTIMATELY BE NOTED AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING SPREADS TOWARD THE
LOWER-MIDDLE TX COAST.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO CAN BE EXPECTED AS THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WARRANT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BY 21Z.

..DARROW/THOMPSON.. 11/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...

LAT...LON   30319998 28829855 26039752 26039915 29570148 30319998






000
ACUS01 KWNS 221944
SWODY1
SPC AC 221943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/S TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT-RISK
AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX INTO WRN/SRN LA...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO MID AND
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS.

...PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...

/1/ THE MARGINAL AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED NWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF E TX
AND WRN LA. DESPITE MINIMAL...THOUGH NON-ZERO...BUOYANCY FORECAST TO
EXTEND INTO THE ADDED AREA...A STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE BAND IS
FORECAST TO EVOLVE FROM ONGOING NRN-TX CONVECTION. A SLY LLJ
STRENGTHENING TO 40-45 KT TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST OR
TWO...AND POSSIBLY A WEAK QLCS TORNADO...FROM E-CNTRL TX INTO
W-CNTRL LA. MORE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE
FOCUSED FATHER S TOWARD THE GULF COAST INCLUDING S TX.

/2/ A GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS BEEN ADDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN...WHERE DCVA PRECEDING A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING ESEWD INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF S TX.
CUMULUS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE OVER THE COAHUILA
MOUNTAINS S OF THE RIO GRANDE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE/MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED IN A
FORTHCOMING MESOSCALE DISCUSSION.

..COHEN.. 11/22/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

...CENTRAL/S TX TODAY TO THE NW GULF COAST OVERNIGHT...
A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO WILL PROGRESS EWD TO
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY EARLY TONIGHT...AND THEN BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST AS AN UPSTREAM JET STREAK
TRANSLATES ESEWD FROM THE PAC COAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS.  A WEAK
SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM TROUGH...WHILE
LARGER-SCALE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN KS/WRN OK TONIGHT
BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER JET.

A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS /SE OF A PRIOR FRONTAL INTRUSION/
CONTINUES TO MOVE NWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BASIN...WITH A
MODIFYING AIR MASS FARTHER TO THE N ACROSS THE NRN GULF INTO TX.
THE MODIFYING AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP
LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER...WHILE WIDESPREAD STATUS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION PERSIST IN THE WAA REGIME OVER TX.  THE CLOUDS AND EARLY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL
TX...WHERE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILES ARE OVERTURNED /SEE 12Z MAF AND DRT
SOUNDINGS WITH 7-8 C PER KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE NEAR
1500 J PER KG/.

FARTHER S...SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW STRONGER
SURFACE HEATING ACROSS S TX THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE MLCAPE COULD
REACH 1500-2000 J/KG.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND ASCENT WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE W...WHICH SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTALS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION WILL THEN
SPREAD EWD INTO S TX THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS
THIS EVENING...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.  THE MCS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE UPPER TX
AND SW LA COASTS...THOUGH THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MOST
BUOYANT WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 221944
SWODY1
SPC AC 221943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/S TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT-RISK
AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX INTO WRN/SRN LA...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO MID AND
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS.

...PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...

/1/ THE MARGINAL AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED NWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF E TX
AND WRN LA. DESPITE MINIMAL...THOUGH NON-ZERO...BUOYANCY FORECAST TO
EXTEND INTO THE ADDED AREA...A STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE BAND IS
FORECAST TO EVOLVE FROM ONGOING NRN-TX CONVECTION. A SLY LLJ
STRENGTHENING TO 40-45 KT TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST OR
TWO...AND POSSIBLY A WEAK QLCS TORNADO...FROM E-CNTRL TX INTO
W-CNTRL LA. MORE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE
FOCUSED FATHER S TOWARD THE GULF COAST INCLUDING S TX.

/2/ A GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS BEEN ADDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN...WHERE DCVA PRECEDING A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING ESEWD INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF S TX.
CUMULUS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE OVER THE COAHUILA
MOUNTAINS S OF THE RIO GRANDE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
DEEPEN/INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE/MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED IN A
FORTHCOMING MESOSCALE DISCUSSION.

..COHEN.. 11/22/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/

...CENTRAL/S TX TODAY TO THE NW GULF COAST OVERNIGHT...
A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO WILL PROGRESS EWD TO
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY EARLY TONIGHT...AND THEN BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST AS AN UPSTREAM JET STREAK
TRANSLATES ESEWD FROM THE PAC COAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS.  A WEAK
SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM TROUGH...WHILE
LARGER-SCALE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN KS/WRN OK TONIGHT
BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER JET.

A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS /SE OF A PRIOR FRONTAL INTRUSION/
CONTINUES TO MOVE NWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BASIN...WITH A
MODIFYING AIR MASS FARTHER TO THE N ACROSS THE NRN GULF INTO TX.
THE MODIFYING AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP
LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER...WHILE WIDESPREAD STATUS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION PERSIST IN THE WAA REGIME OVER TX.  THE CLOUDS AND EARLY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL
TX...WHERE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILES ARE OVERTURNED /SEE 12Z MAF AND DRT
SOUNDINGS WITH 7-8 C PER KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE NEAR
1500 J PER KG/.

FARTHER S...SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW STRONGER
SURFACE HEATING ACROSS S TX THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE MLCAPE COULD
REACH 1500-2000 J/KG.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND ASCENT WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE W...WHICH SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTALS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION WILL THEN
SPREAD EWD INTO S TX THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS
THIS EVENING...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.  THE MCS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE UPPER TX
AND SW LA COASTS...THOUGH THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MOST
BUOYANT WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE.





000
ACUS02 KWNS 221731
SWODY2
SPC AC 221730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT-RISK
AREA FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO WILL HAVE REACHED THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY EARLY SUN BEFORE
RAPIDLY ADVANCING NEWD TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL JET STREAK...WHICH WILL CROSS THE SRN STATES
BEFORE ORIENTING WSW-ENE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY. STRONG ASCENT IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK WILL
ENCOURAGE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTOGENETIC BOUNDARY ORIENTED
NE/SW OVER THE PLAINS. THE ENSUING SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT
DEVELOPS NEWD FROM KS TO NRN LAKE MI.

...SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
STRONG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING ACROSS SWRN LA SUN MORNING...AS A SQUALL LINE/MCS SHOULD
HAVE BECOME ORGANIZED WITHIN A LOBE OF DCVA RELATED TO THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WELL AHEAD OF THE MCS...SFC OBSERVATIONS AND VIS
IMAGERY ACROSS THE GULF INDICATE ONLY PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
MOISTURE -- E.G. MIDDLE-UPPER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
GULF -- WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE
NRN GULF. AND...WITH SFC RIDGING STILL ANALYZED ACROSS SERN CONUS
INTO THE N-CNTRL/NERN GULF...AND A TENDENCY FOR THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM RICHER/LOWER-LATITUDE
MOISTURE...PROSPECTS FOR SUBSTANTIAL INLAND PENETRATION OF HIGH
THETA-E AIR APPEAR LIMITED. THESE FACTORS CAST CONSIDERABLE DOUBT
REGARDING THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF EARLY-DAY CONVECTION...AND LATER
GENERATIONS OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION.

REGARDLESS...AS LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING IS RELOADED ALONG THE FRINGES
OF AT LEAST PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE/CONVECTIVELY RECYCLED
MOISTURE...50-70 KT OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED H5 FLOW SURMOUNTING 40-55
KT OF H7 FLOW SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL OVERLIE AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST FROM THE
CNTRL GULF COAST INLAND TO SWRN GA/SRN AL...WHERE THE RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS -- ALBEIT REMOVED WELL TO THE N -- WILL MODESTLY
ACCELERATE INLAND FLUXES OF MIDDLE/UPPER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS
SUPPORTING 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. DESPITE A TENDENCY FOR LOW-LEVEL
FLOW VEER ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE
SUFFICIENTLY LONG/CURVED TO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO OCCUR IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.  THIS
ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE FROM DIURNALLY ENHANCED ACTIVITY LINGERING
FROM THE EARLIER-ORGANIZED MCS...OR LATER GENERATIONS OF CONVECTION
FORCED BY ASCENT ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS. ISOLATED SVR
STORMS MAY OCCUR WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SMALL LEWP/BOWING
SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...WITH ANY APPRECIABLE DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT
BECOMING INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM MORE APPRECIABLE BUOYANCY
EVOLVING DURING THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...AND GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE EARLIER MCS AND ITS POTENTIAL TO
FURTHER DEPLETE INLAND BUOYANCY...CONFIDENCE IN ENHANCED COVERAGE OF
SVR TSTMS/DMGG WINDS IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR ENHANCED-SLIGHT
DESIGNATION. SOME TORNADO RISK MAY OCCUR...THOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS
REGARDING SUCH POTENTIAL WOULD NEED TO BE IDENTIFIED IN SUBSEQUENT
OUTLOOKS IF OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST A HIGHER-CONFIDENCE CORRIDOR
IN STRONG BUOYANCY ALIGNING WITH A SUPERCELL MODE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SLIGHT-RISK AREA...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED. STRONGER DEEP ASCENT WILL EXIST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING SFC LOW
AND IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL JET...THOUGH A
PAUCITY OF BUOYANCY WILL LEAD TO A PRECIPITOUSLY LOWER SVR-TSTM
PROBABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR -- ESPECIALLY AS
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST INTERRUPTS
POLEWARD FLUXES OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR. FARTHER N...THERE WILL BE
SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR LATENT HEAT FLUXES ATOP THE GULF STREAM TO
MANIFEST IN ROBUST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
EARLY MON MORNING...WHERE A 50-65 KT LLJ WILL OFFER LARGE SRH AND
LIMITED TORNADO POTENTIAL. NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION MAY BE
DETRIMENTAL TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK IN THIS REGIME.

..COHEN.. 11/22/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 221731
SWODY2
SPC AC 221730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT-RISK
AREA FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO WILL HAVE REACHED THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY EARLY SUN BEFORE
RAPIDLY ADVANCING NEWD TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL JET STREAK...WHICH WILL CROSS THE SRN STATES
BEFORE ORIENTING WSW-ENE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE UPPER OH
VALLEY. STRONG ASCENT IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK WILL
ENCOURAGE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTOGENETIC BOUNDARY ORIENTED
NE/SW OVER THE PLAINS. THE ENSUING SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT
DEVELOPS NEWD FROM KS TO NRN LAKE MI.

...SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
STRONG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING ACROSS SWRN LA SUN MORNING...AS A SQUALL LINE/MCS SHOULD
HAVE BECOME ORGANIZED WITHIN A LOBE OF DCVA RELATED TO THE VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WELL AHEAD OF THE MCS...SFC OBSERVATIONS AND VIS
IMAGERY ACROSS THE GULF INDICATE ONLY PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
MOISTURE -- E.G. MIDDLE-UPPER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
GULF -- WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE
NRN GULF. AND...WITH SFC RIDGING STILL ANALYZED ACROSS SERN CONUS
INTO THE N-CNTRL/NERN GULF...AND A TENDENCY FOR THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM RICHER/LOWER-LATITUDE
MOISTURE...PROSPECTS FOR SUBSTANTIAL INLAND PENETRATION OF HIGH
THETA-E AIR APPEAR LIMITED. THESE FACTORS CAST CONSIDERABLE DOUBT
REGARDING THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF EARLY-DAY CONVECTION...AND LATER
GENERATIONS OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION.

REGARDLESS...AS LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING IS RELOADED ALONG THE FRINGES
OF AT LEAST PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE/CONVECTIVELY RECYCLED
MOISTURE...50-70 KT OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED H5 FLOW SURMOUNTING 40-55
KT OF H7 FLOW SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL OVERLIE AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST FROM THE
CNTRL GULF COAST INLAND TO SWRN GA/SRN AL...WHERE THE RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS -- ALBEIT REMOVED WELL TO THE N -- WILL MODESTLY
ACCELERATE INLAND FLUXES OF MIDDLE/UPPER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS
SUPPORTING 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. DESPITE A TENDENCY FOR LOW-LEVEL
FLOW VEER ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE
SUFFICIENTLY LONG/CURVED TO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO OCCUR IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.  THIS
ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE FROM DIURNALLY ENHANCED ACTIVITY LINGERING
FROM THE EARLIER-ORGANIZED MCS...OR LATER GENERATIONS OF CONVECTION
FORCED BY ASCENT ALONG A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS. ISOLATED SVR
STORMS MAY OCCUR WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND SMALL LEWP/BOWING
SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...WITH ANY APPRECIABLE DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT
BECOMING INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM MORE APPRECIABLE BUOYANCY
EVOLVING DURING THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...AND GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE EARLIER MCS AND ITS POTENTIAL TO
FURTHER DEPLETE INLAND BUOYANCY...CONFIDENCE IN ENHANCED COVERAGE OF
SVR TSTMS/DMGG WINDS IS NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR ENHANCED-SLIGHT
DESIGNATION. SOME TORNADO RISK MAY OCCUR...THOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS
REGARDING SUCH POTENTIAL WOULD NEED TO BE IDENTIFIED IN SUBSEQUENT
OUTLOOKS IF OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST A HIGHER-CONFIDENCE CORRIDOR
IN STRONG BUOYANCY ALIGNING WITH A SUPERCELL MODE.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SLIGHT-RISK AREA...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED. STRONGER DEEP ASCENT WILL EXIST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING SFC LOW
AND IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL JET...THOUGH A
PAUCITY OF BUOYANCY WILL LEAD TO A PRECIPITOUSLY LOWER SVR-TSTM
PROBABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR -- ESPECIALLY AS
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST INTERRUPTS
POLEWARD FLUXES OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR. FARTHER N...THERE WILL BE
SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR LATENT HEAT FLUXES ATOP THE GULF STREAM TO
MANIFEST IN ROBUST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
EARLY MON MORNING...WHERE A 50-65 KT LLJ WILL OFFER LARGE SRH AND
LIMITED TORNADO POTENTIAL. NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION MAY BE
DETRIMENTAL TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK IN THIS REGIME.

..COHEN.. 11/22/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 221631
SWODY1
SPC AC 221630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR
CENTRAL/S TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND TONIGHT ACROSS SE TX/SW LA...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO MID AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS.

...CENTRAL/S TX TODAY TO THE NW GULF COAST OVERNIGHT...
A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO WILL PROGRESS EWD TO
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY EARLY TONIGHT...AND THEN BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST AS AN UPSTREAM JET STREAK
TRANSLATES ESEWD FROM THE PAC COAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS.  A WEAK
SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM TROUGH...WHILE
LARGER-SCALE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN KS/WRN OK TONIGHT
BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER JET.

A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS /SE OF A PRIOR FRONTAL INTRUSION/
CONTINUES TO MOVE NWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BASIN...WITH A
MODIFYING AIR MASS FARTHER TO THE N ACROSS THE NRN GULF INTO TX.
THE MODIFYING AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP
LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER...WHILE WIDESPREAD STATUS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION PERSIST IN THE WAA REGIME OVER TX.  THE CLOUDS AND EARLY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL
TX...WHERE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILES ARE OVERTURNED /SEE 12Z MAF AND DRT
SOUNDINGS WITH 7-8 C PER KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE NEAR
1500 J PER KG/.

FARTHER S...SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW STRONGER
SURFACE HEATING ACROSS S TX THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE MLCAPE COULD
REACH 1500-2000 J/KG.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND ASCENT WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE W...WHICH SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTALS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION WILL THEN
SPREAD EWD INTO S TX THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS
THIS EVENING...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.  THE MCS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE UPPER TX
AND SW LA COASTS...THOUGH THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MOST
BUOYANT WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE.

..THOMPSON/MARSH.. 11/22/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 221631
SWODY1
SPC AC 221630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR
CENTRAL/S TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND TONIGHT ACROSS SE TX/SW LA...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO MID AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS.

...CENTRAL/S TX TODAY TO THE NW GULF COAST OVERNIGHT...
A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO WILL PROGRESS EWD TO
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY EARLY TONIGHT...AND THEN BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST AS AN UPSTREAM JET STREAK
TRANSLATES ESEWD FROM THE PAC COAST TO THE FOUR CORNERS.  A WEAK
SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM TROUGH...WHILE
LARGER-SCALE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN KS/WRN OK TONIGHT
BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER JET.

A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS /SE OF A PRIOR FRONTAL INTRUSION/
CONTINUES TO MOVE NWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BASIN...WITH A
MODIFYING AIR MASS FARTHER TO THE N ACROSS THE NRN GULF INTO TX.
THE MODIFYING AIR MASS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP
LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER...WHILE WIDESPREAD STATUS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION PERSIST IN THE WAA REGIME OVER TX.  THE CLOUDS AND EARLY
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING ACROSS CENTRAL
TX...WHERE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE PROFILES ARE OVERTURNED /SEE 12Z MAF AND DRT
SOUNDINGS WITH 7-8 C PER KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE NEAR
1500 J PER KG/.

FARTHER S...SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS WILL ALLOW STRONGER
SURFACE HEATING ACROSS S TX THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE MLCAPE COULD
REACH 1500-2000 J/KG.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND ASCENT WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE W...WHICH SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E SLOPES OF
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTALS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION WILL THEN
SPREAD EWD INTO S TX THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS
THIS EVENING...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.  THE MCS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE UPPER TX
AND SW LA COASTS...THOUGH THE RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MOST
BUOYANT WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE.

..THOMPSON/MARSH.. 11/22/2014





000
ACUS11 KWNS 221310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221309
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-221715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1933
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...FAR WRN PA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 221309Z - 221715Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN...WITH PRECIPITATION RATES AROUND 0.05-0.10
INCH PER HOUR...IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS ERN
OH AND FAR WRN PA.

DISCUSSION...AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO ERN OH AND FAR WRN PA. DRY LAYER BELOW
850 MB -- 12Z PIT RAOB SAMPLED THIS LAYER WELL -- WILL FAVOR
EVAPORATION OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...EVENTUAL
MOISTENING OF THIS LAYER IS EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE SURFACE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS WRN OH AND LWR MI REPORTED
FREEZING RAIN RATES AROUND 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH PER HOUR AND SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES INTO
ERN OH AND FAR WRN PA.

..MOSIER.. 11/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   40598249 40958236 41488175 41698130 41868085 41608031
            40098031 39328130 39058202 39698234 40598249





000
ACUS11 KWNS 221310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221309
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-221715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1933
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...FAR WRN PA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 221309Z - 221715Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN...WITH PRECIPITATION RATES AROUND 0.05-0.10
INCH PER HOUR...IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS ERN
OH AND FAR WRN PA.

DISCUSSION...AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO ERN OH AND FAR WRN PA. DRY LAYER BELOW
850 MB -- 12Z PIT RAOB SAMPLED THIS LAYER WELL -- WILL FAVOR
EVAPORATION OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...EVENTUAL
MOISTENING OF THIS LAYER IS EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE SURFACE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS WRN OH AND LWR MI REPORTED
FREEZING RAIN RATES AROUND 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH PER HOUR AND SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES INTO
ERN OH AND FAR WRN PA.

..MOSIER.. 11/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   40598249 40958236 41488175 41698130 41868085 41608031
            40098031 39328130 39058202 39698234 40598249






000
ACUS11 KWNS 221310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221309
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-221715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1933
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...FAR WRN PA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 221309Z - 221715Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN...WITH PRECIPITATION RATES AROUND 0.05-0.10
INCH PER HOUR...IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS ERN
OH AND FAR WRN PA.

DISCUSSION...AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO ERN OH AND FAR WRN PA. DRY LAYER BELOW
850 MB -- 12Z PIT RAOB SAMPLED THIS LAYER WELL -- WILL FAVOR
EVAPORATION OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...EVENTUAL
MOISTENING OF THIS LAYER IS EXPECTED WITH RESULTANT FREEZING RAIN AT
THE SURFACE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS WRN OH AND LWR MI REPORTED
FREEZING RAIN RATES AROUND 0.05 TO 0.10 INCH PER HOUR AND SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES INTO
ERN OH AND FAR WRN PA.

..MOSIER.. 11/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   40598249 40958236 41488175 41698130 41868085 41608031
            40098031 39328130 39058202 39698234 40598249





000
ACUS01 KWNS 221250
SWODY1
SPC AC 221249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND
SRN TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX INTO SRN
LA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO MID AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS.

...SYNOPSIS...

A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME PRESENT OVER THE CONUS WILL UNDERGO
AMPLIFICATION OWING TO THE MOVEMENT OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND
MAXIMA FROM THE ORE/NRN CA COASTS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. THE
PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A LONGER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS...AND
THE EWD TRANSLATION AND GRADUAL DE-AMPLIFICATION OF A SRN-BRANCH
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS SRN TX.

AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WILL UNDERGO SLIGHT DEEPENING WHILE DEVELOPING SEWD INTO SRN
TX BY EVENING...PRIOR TO RE-CURVING NEWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT OR DRYLINE-TYPE FEATURE
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS CYCLONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO ERN TX
WHILE AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE SABINE RIVER
VALLEY INTO OZARK PLATEAU. FARTHER SOUTH...A SECONDARY WARM FRONT OR
MARINE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NWD THROUGH THE SHELF WATERS TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. ELSEWHERE...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EWD OR SEWD INTO
S-CNTRL KS OR NWRN/N-CNTRL OK BY 23/12Z. THIS LOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT SURGING EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND
SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

...TX TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING FROM THE PERMIAN
BASIN...EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY OF TX INTO CNTRL OK WITH
THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING DRIVEN BY WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE
AXIS OF A SLY LLJ. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS REVEAL A FAVORABLE OVERLAP
OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH THESE SAME FORCING MECHANISMS WITHIN THE WARM-CONVEYOR
AIR STREAM TO PROMOTE AN AREAL INCREASE IN TSTMS TODAY FROM CNTRL TX
NWD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE BY AFTERNOON
OVER CNTRL TX ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED TSTM
REGIME WHERE LOCALLY STRONGER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS
ANTICIPATED. HERE...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT A VEER-BACK WIND
PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND SOME WEAKNESS IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 750 MB.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST A MIXTURE OF STORM MODES WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS THAT WOULD TRACK ESEWD INTO SERN
TX TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...A SECONDARY CORRIDOR OF POTENTIALLY MORE
ROBUST STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING EITHER
ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...AND/OR INVOF THE
SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT/DRYLINE MOVING THROUGH THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND DEEP SOUTH TX. GIVEN THE CO-LOCATION OF 40-50+ KT
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER /AND RESULTING MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/...THE
SETUP WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO THOUGH THIS EVENING. BY
TONIGHT...STORMS MAY COALESCE INTO A N-S-ORIENTED BAND /POSSIBLY
MERGING WITH THE TSTM REGIME TO THE NORTH/ WITH THE RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...SEVERE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES
SPREADING EWD ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAIN.

...CNTRL GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...

THE SERN TX MCS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WHERE IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING ONSHORE. WHILE
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE...CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK THROUGH 23/12Z.
OTHER MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM DOWNSTREAM OVER
S-CNTRL/SERN LA WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT
IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE/WARM FRONT. ANY ASSOCIATED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

..MEAD/GLEASON.. 11/22/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 221250
SWODY1
SPC AC 221249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND
SRN TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX INTO SRN
LA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO MID AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS.

...SYNOPSIS...

A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME PRESENT OVER THE CONUS WILL UNDERGO
AMPLIFICATION OWING TO THE MOVEMENT OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND
MAXIMA FROM THE ORE/NRN CA COASTS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. THE
PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A LONGER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS...AND
THE EWD TRANSLATION AND GRADUAL DE-AMPLIFICATION OF A SRN-BRANCH
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS SRN TX.

AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WILL UNDERGO SLIGHT DEEPENING WHILE DEVELOPING SEWD INTO SRN
TX BY EVENING...PRIOR TO RE-CURVING NEWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT OR DRYLINE-TYPE FEATURE
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS CYCLONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO ERN TX
WHILE AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE SABINE RIVER
VALLEY INTO OZARK PLATEAU. FARTHER SOUTH...A SECONDARY WARM FRONT OR
MARINE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NWD THROUGH THE SHELF WATERS TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. ELSEWHERE...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EWD OR SEWD INTO
S-CNTRL KS OR NWRN/N-CNTRL OK BY 23/12Z. THIS LOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT SURGING EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND
SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

...TX TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING FROM THE PERMIAN
BASIN...EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY OF TX INTO CNTRL OK WITH
THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING DRIVEN BY WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE
AXIS OF A SLY LLJ. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS REVEAL A FAVORABLE OVERLAP
OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH THESE SAME FORCING MECHANISMS WITHIN THE WARM-CONVEYOR
AIR STREAM TO PROMOTE AN AREAL INCREASE IN TSTMS TODAY FROM CNTRL TX
NWD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY MATERIALIZE BY AFTERNOON
OVER CNTRL TX ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED TSTM
REGIME WHERE LOCALLY STRONGER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS
ANTICIPATED. HERE...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT A VEER-BACK WIND
PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND SOME WEAKNESS IN WIND SPEEDS AROUND 750 MB.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST A MIXTURE OF STORM MODES WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS THAT WOULD TRACK ESEWD INTO SERN
TX TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...A SECONDARY CORRIDOR OF POTENTIALLY MORE
ROBUST STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING EITHER
ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE...AND/OR INVOF THE
SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT/DRYLINE MOVING THROUGH THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND DEEP SOUTH TX. GIVEN THE CO-LOCATION OF 40-50+ KT
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER /AND RESULTING MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/...THE
SETUP WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO THOUGH THIS EVENING. BY
TONIGHT...STORMS MAY COALESCE INTO A N-S-ORIENTED BAND /POSSIBLY
MERGING WITH THE TSTM REGIME TO THE NORTH/ WITH THE RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...SEVERE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES
SPREADING EWD ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAIN.

...CNTRL GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...

THE SERN TX MCS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
WHERE IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING ONSHORE. WHILE
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE...CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK THROUGH 23/12Z.
OTHER MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM DOWNSTREAM OVER
S-CNTRL/SERN LA WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL ASCENT
IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH OF THE MARINE/WARM FRONT. ANY ASSOCIATED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

..MEAD/GLEASON.. 11/22/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 220819
SWODY3
SPC AC 220818

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EARLY MONDAY ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS OF THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA.  A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LONGWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL STATES WILL FEATURE A
RAPIDLY-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE ST
LAWRENCE SEAWAY DURING THE PERIOD WHILE A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WRN ATLANTIC.

A 980MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND
DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO CNTRL QUEBEC.  AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH/TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS
BY MONDAY EVENING AND TRANSLATE OFF THE ERN SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA.

...ERN NC...
THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
LARGELY MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST STATES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE WRN ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...THE SWD EXTENSION OF THE
FRONT OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MAY NOT MOVE OFF THE COAST UNTIL
MIDDAY.  ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY.  GIVEN A STRONG
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT PARTIALLY RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR...A FEW STORMS MAY POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.

..SMITH.. 11/22/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 220819
SWODY3
SPC AC 220818

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EARLY MONDAY ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS OF THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA.  A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MAY RESULT IN A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LONGWAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL STATES WILL FEATURE A
RAPIDLY-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE ST
LAWRENCE SEAWAY DURING THE PERIOD WHILE A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WRN ATLANTIC.

A 980MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES WILL DEVELOP NEWD AND
DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO CNTRL QUEBEC.  AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH/TN VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS
BY MONDAY EVENING AND TRANSLATE OFF THE ERN SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA.

...ERN NC...
THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
LARGELY MOVE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST STATES INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE WRN ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...THE SWD EXTENSION OF THE
FRONT OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS MAY NOT MOVE OFF THE COAST UNTIL
MIDDAY.  ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY.  GIVEN A STRONG
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT PARTIALLY RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR...A FEW STORMS MAY POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.

..SMITH.. 11/22/2014





000
ACUS11 KWNS 220707
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220707
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-221200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1932
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SE WI...NE IL...NRN-CNTRL IND...SRN LOWER MI...WRN
OH

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 220707Z - 221200Z

SUMMARY...THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES NEWD FROM NE IL AND SW
WI INTO SW LOWER MI AND NRN IND OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. FREEZING
RAIN RATES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM SRN
WI SWD INTO NRN IL...ERN IL AND WRN IND. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LIFT
ENHANCED BY A LOW-LEVEL SPEED MAX...CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE
ST LOUIS AREA...WILL HELP PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN IND AND LAKE MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT THE
SFC...TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S F ACROSS SW LOWER MI
AND NE IND WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. MANY AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN
RATES OF NEAR 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR. AREAS FROM NEAR GRAND RAPIDS MI
SWD TO THE VICINITY OF FORT WAYNE IND COULD RECEIVE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WITH FREEZING RAIN RATES APPROACHING 0.10 PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 11/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
MKX...

LAT...LON   41738373 42858403 43568468 43758548 43748633 43298756
            42998838 42518882 41888881 41118847 40108755 39298639
            39288476 39698385 40668376 41738373






000
ACUS11 KWNS 220707
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220707
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-221200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1932
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SE WI...NE IL...NRN-CNTRL IND...SRN LOWER MI...WRN
OH

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 220707Z - 221200Z

SUMMARY...THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES NEWD FROM NE IL AND SW
WI INTO SW LOWER MI AND NRN IND OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. FREEZING
RAIN RATES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM SRN
WI SWD INTO NRN IL...ERN IL AND WRN IND. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LIFT
ENHANCED BY A LOW-LEVEL SPEED MAX...CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE
ST LOUIS AREA...WILL HELP PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN IND AND LAKE MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT THE
SFC...TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S F ACROSS SW LOWER MI
AND NE IND WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. MANY AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN
RATES OF NEAR 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR. AREAS FROM NEAR GRAND RAPIDS MI
SWD TO THE VICINITY OF FORT WAYNE IND COULD RECEIVE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WITH FREEZING RAIN RATES APPROACHING 0.10 PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 11/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
MKX...

LAT...LON   41738373 42858403 43568468 43758548 43748633 43298756
            42998838 42518882 41888881 41118847 40108755 39298639
            39288476 39698385 40668376 41738373





000
ACUS11 KWNS 220707
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220707
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-221200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1932
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SE WI...NE IL...NRN-CNTRL IND...SRN LOWER MI...WRN
OH

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 220707Z - 221200Z

SUMMARY...THE OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES NEWD FROM NE IL AND SW
WI INTO SW LOWER MI AND NRN IND OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. FREEZING
RAIN RATES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM SRN
WI SWD INTO NRN IL...ERN IL AND WRN IND. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LIFT
ENHANCED BY A LOW-LEVEL SPEED MAX...CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE
ST LOUIS AREA...WILL HELP PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN IND AND LAKE MI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT THE
SFC...TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S F ACROSS SW LOWER MI
AND NE IND WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. MANY AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE FREEZING RAIN
RATES OF NEAR 0.05 INCHES PER HOUR. AREAS FROM NEAR GRAND RAPIDS MI
SWD TO THE VICINITY OF FORT WAYNE IND COULD RECEIVE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WITH FREEZING RAIN RATES APPROACHING 0.10 PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 11/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
MKX...

LAT...LON   41738373 42858403 43568468 43758548 43748633 43298756
            42998838 42518882 41888881 41118847 40108755 39298639
            39288476 39698385 40668376 41738373





000
ACUS02 KWNS 220659
SWODY2
SPC AC 220658

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY EWD TO NRN FL AND THE CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN AR INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY.  DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE FORECAST TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS LOWER-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST
SUNDAY MORNING WILL RAPIDLY MOVE TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY EVENING.
CONCURRENTLY...AN INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL STRENGTHEN
TO 100 KT AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH AND MOVES
FROM THE SRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO KY/TN BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP/DEEPEN FROM
OK TO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND CNTRL GREAT
LAKES EARLY MONDAY.  A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NWD ACROSS
THE LOWER MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY.

...LOWER MS VALLEY EWD INTO AL/GA/FL...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN A CONVECTIVE LINE
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND NWRN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NWD ADVANCING WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY
MIDDLE 60S DEWPOINTS INTO CNTRL MS AND AL WILL LEAD TO MARGINAL
BUOYANCY /250-1000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE
SQUALL LINE.  STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH A
STRENGTHENING LLJ /50 KT/ AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONGLY FORCED LINE MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF AL.  AN ENHANCED RISK FOR DMGG WIND AND
AN ISOLD TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY ANY LONGER-LIVED EMBEDDED
MESOVORTICES/SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE LINE MOVES EWD
ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES.

DURING THE MORNING AND FARTHER E...A NWD ADVANCING WARM FRONT OVER
THE NERN GULF STATES WILL AID IN FOCUSING LIFT AS 60S DEG F BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS MOVE NWD INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF GA/AL.  ALTHOUGH
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ELEVATED NEAR THE FRONT...AN ISOLD
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THESE STORMS IF
PARCELS CAN ROOT NEAR THE SURFACE.

...ERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS DURING THE PERIOD AND SERVE TO CONCENTRATE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAROLINAS.  A STRONG POLEWARD
MOISTURE FLUX WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO APPRECIABLE MOISTURE
INFILTRATING THE COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONT DOWNSTREAM OF THE
INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET MOVING INTO KY/TN DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
BUOYANCY AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT PERHAPS AN
INCREASING RISK FOR DMGG WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

...LOWER TN/OH VALLEYS...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR FROM NERN AR NEWD INTO THE LOWER OH
VALLEY WITH EXPECTED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FARTHER S.  NONETHELESS...THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE IS PROGGED TO
REACH THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON.  A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NWD THROUGH THIS AREA FOLLOWED BY RELATIVELY MOIST UPPER 50S
DEWPOINTS.  YET...COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL
JET MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF AN
ISOLD DMGG WIND THREAT.

..SMITH.. 11/22/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 220553
SWODY1
SPC AC 220551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO MID AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
AS LARGE-SCALE RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...MODELS
INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SPLITTING AS IT CROSSES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
ROCKIES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION
EVENTUALLY TURNS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THIS LATTER DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE CLOSED
LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.

AS THIS SOUTHERNMOST FEATURE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN MEXICO...TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN
GULF COAST REGION...INITIALLY PROMINENT SURFACE RIDGING /EXTENDING
TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTING EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/ SHOULD EVENTUALLY LOSE INFLUENCE OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS.  HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...AND WILL IMPACT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIVE MOISTENING IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ON SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.  AND MODELS
ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE
BENEATH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY DAYBREAK TODAY.

...TEXAS...
AS THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE
OVER MEXICO PROGRESSES TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...MODELS
DO SUGGEST THAT MID-LEVEL COOLING WELL TO ITS NORTH/NORTHEAST MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU...NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BIG COUNTRY.  ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER FLOW
FIELDS MAY REMAIN RATHER MODEST...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG A 30-40 KT
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS IN THE PRESENCE OF CAPE WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG.  ACTIVITY MAY BE BASED NEAR THE
SURFACE...BUT LARGE HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH
STRONGEST STORMS...AT LEAST INITIALLY...BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD.  IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
DEVELOPING CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION...AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL...COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS
NEAR/NORTH OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER PROGRESSES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.  IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A 50-60 KT 500 MB JET
STREAK...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...INCLUDING A RISK FOR TORNADOES...AND PERHAPS AN
EVOLVING ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...THE LACK
OF STRONGER/MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE OVER INLAND AREAS.

...UPPER TEXAS COAST THROUGH CENTRAL GULF COAST...
AS SURFACE RIDGING GRADUALLY ERODES...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES PROBABLY WILL BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS...AT LEAST TO THE EAST OF
GALVESTON BAY...CURRENTLY SEEMS UNLIKELY.

..KERR/LEITMAN.. 11/22/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 220553
SWODY1
SPC AC 220551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING PORTIONS OF
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO MID AND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
AS LARGE-SCALE RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...MODELS
INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
BEFORE GRADUALLY SPLITTING AS IT CROSSES THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
ROCKIES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION
EVENTUALLY TURNS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
SUNDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THIS LATTER DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE CLOSED
LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.

AS THIS SOUTHERNMOST FEATURE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN MEXICO...TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN
GULF COAST REGION...INITIALLY PROMINENT SURFACE RIDGING /EXTENDING
TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTING EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST/ SHOULD EVENTUALLY LOSE INFLUENCE OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS.  HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...AND WILL IMPACT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIVE MOISTENING IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ON SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.  AND MODELS
ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE
BENEATH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY DAYBREAK TODAY.

...TEXAS...
AS THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE
OVER MEXICO PROGRESSES TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...MODELS
DO SUGGEST THAT MID-LEVEL COOLING WELL TO ITS NORTH/NORTHEAST MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU...NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BIG COUNTRY.  ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER FLOW
FIELDS MAY REMAIN RATHER MODEST...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG A 30-40 KT
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS IN THE PRESENCE OF CAPE WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG.  ACTIVITY MAY BE BASED NEAR THE
SURFACE...BUT LARGE HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH
STRONGEST STORMS...AT LEAST INITIALLY...BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD.  IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
DEVELOPING CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION...AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL...COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS
NEAR/NORTH OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER PROGRESSES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.  IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A 50-60 KT 500 MB JET
STREAK...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...INCLUDING A RISK FOR TORNADOES...AND PERHAPS AN
EVOLVING ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...THE LACK
OF STRONGER/MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE OVER INLAND AREAS.

...UPPER TEXAS COAST THROUGH CENTRAL GULF COAST...
AS SURFACE RIDGING GRADUALLY ERODES...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES PROBABLY WILL BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS...AT LEAST TO THE EAST OF
GALVESTON BAY...CURRENTLY SEEMS UNLIKELY.

..KERR/LEITMAN.. 11/22/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 220534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220533
TXZ000-OKZ000-220630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1931
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 220533Z - 220630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN N-CENTRAL
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT A MORE
WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. A WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN S/SELY LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 35 KT AND
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 DEG C/KM WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS IN STRONGER STORMS...BUT
LONGEVITY AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEST SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY. SMALL HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. BUT GIVEN THE MARGINALITY OF
THE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETER SPACE...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

..LEITMAN/GUYER.. 11/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   33839728 33679690 33459672 32899666 32269680 31789698
            31139749 30919781 30849818 30959857 31229877 31659893
            32139889 32949847 33629800 33849761 33839728





000
ACUS11 KWNS 220534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220533
TXZ000-OKZ000-220630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1931
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 220533Z - 220630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN N-CENTRAL
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT A MORE
WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. A WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN S/SELY LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 35 KT AND
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 DEG C/KM WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS IN STRONGER STORMS...BUT
LONGEVITY AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEST SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY. SMALL HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS. BUT GIVEN THE MARGINALITY OF
THE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETER SPACE...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

..LEITMAN/GUYER.. 11/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   33839728 33679690 33459672 32899666 32269680 31789698
            31139749 30919781 30849818 30959857 31229877 31659893
            32139889 32949847 33629800 33849761 33839728





000
ACUS01 KWNS 220052
SWODY1
SPC AC 220050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
TEXAS.

...SYNOPSIS/SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AS THE CENTER OF A LARGE COLD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW IS NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/WESTERN GULF COAST REGION TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
THIS IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST OF
ARIZONA...ACROSS SONORA/CHIHUAHUA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE HAS BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA BORDER FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
AND SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES NEAR THE BORDER AREA AS EARLY AS THE
01-03Z TIME FRAME.

FARTHER EAST...GENERALLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO BEEN OCCURRING
NEAR AND EAST NORTHEAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...PERHAPS WITHIN A
WEAKNESS IN MID-LEVEL INHIBITION...AND ALONG THE
LEADING/NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF RICHER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  IT APPEARS THAT THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
SPREAD OR REDEVELOP WEST NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...ACROSS THE
RED RIVER VALLEY...WHERE MODELS SUGGEST STRONGEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT
WILL BECOME FOCUSED BY 22/12Z.

FORCING FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE/TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS ACTIVITY...TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNCLEAR OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...INCREASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH
FURTHER MOISTENING ALONG A SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS...FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KT...SEEMS TO SUPPORT ENOUGH OF A CONDITIONAL
SEVERE RISK TO MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES /MAINLY FOR
HAIL/.

..KERR.. 11/22/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 220052
SWODY1
SPC AC 220050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SOME RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
TEXAS.

...SYNOPSIS/SOUTHERN PLATEAU INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AS THE CENTER OF A LARGE COLD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...A SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW IS NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/WESTERN GULF COAST REGION TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
THIS IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST OF
ARIZONA...ACROSS SONORA/CHIHUAHUA THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE HAS BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN ARIZONA BORDER FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
AND SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES NEAR THE BORDER AREA AS EARLY AS THE
01-03Z TIME FRAME.

FARTHER EAST...GENERALLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO BEEN OCCURRING
NEAR AND EAST NORTHEAST OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...PERHAPS WITHIN A
WEAKNESS IN MID-LEVEL INHIBITION...AND ALONG THE
LEADING/NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF RICHER MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  IT APPEARS THAT THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
SPREAD OR REDEVELOP WEST NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...ACROSS THE
RED RIVER VALLEY...WHERE MODELS SUGGEST STRONGEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT
WILL BECOME FOCUSED BY 22/12Z.

FORCING FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE/TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS ACTIVITY...TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNCLEAR OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...INCREASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH
FURTHER MOISTENING ALONG A SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS...FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KT...SEEMS TO SUPPORT ENOUGH OF A CONDITIONAL
SEVERE RISK TO MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES /MAINLY FOR
HAIL/.

..KERR.. 11/22/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 211948
SWODY1
SPC AC 211946

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN OK SWWD TO THE MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

...DISCUSSION...
ASIDE FROM MINOR LINE TWEAKS...THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED THIS UPDATE AS PRESENT METEOROLOGICAL REASONING APPEARS TO
REMAIN REPRESENTATIVE OF THE EVOLVING SCENARIO.

..GOSS.. 11/21/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

...SRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL
PROGRESS ESEWD TO NRN MEXICO OVERNIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER JET
STREAK APPROACHING THE PAC COAST.  LOW-LEVEL WAA AND GRADUAL
MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TX WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM
TROUGH.  HOWEVER...NO DRAMATIC INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ELY
TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF INTO TX...AS THE MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS CONFINED TO ALONG AND S OF THE WEAKENING
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE YUCATAN/NW CARIBBEAN.

RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST PROFILES WITH THIS RETURN FLOW CYCLE WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STRATUS WHICH WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING INLAND
ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM BY
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WEAK BAND OF SLOWLY-DEEPENING CONVECTION NOW
EXTENDING FROM CLL TO JUST W OF CRP/BRO...WHICH WILL SPREAD NWWD
THROUGH TONIGHT IN A STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME. THE INCREASE IN WAA
WILL CORRESPOND WITH SOME INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR AND STORM
ROTATION POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS AND WAA INITIATION
MECHANISM SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST/SLIGHTLY-ELEVATED STORMS WILL
BE MORE PROBABLE ACROSS NW TX OVERNIGHT.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 211948
SWODY1
SPC AC 211946

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN OK SWWD TO THE MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

...DISCUSSION...
ASIDE FROM MINOR LINE TWEAKS...THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED THIS UPDATE AS PRESENT METEOROLOGICAL REASONING APPEARS TO
REMAIN REPRESENTATIVE OF THE EVOLVING SCENARIO.

..GOSS.. 11/21/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

...SRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL
PROGRESS ESEWD TO NRN MEXICO OVERNIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER JET
STREAK APPROACHING THE PAC COAST.  LOW-LEVEL WAA AND GRADUAL
MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TX WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM
TROUGH.  HOWEVER...NO DRAMATIC INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ELY
TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF INTO TX...AS THE MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS CONFINED TO ALONG AND S OF THE WEAKENING
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE YUCATAN/NW CARIBBEAN.

RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST PROFILES WITH THIS RETURN FLOW CYCLE WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STRATUS WHICH WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING INLAND
ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM BY
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WEAK BAND OF SLOWLY-DEEPENING CONVECTION NOW
EXTENDING FROM CLL TO JUST W OF CRP/BRO...WHICH WILL SPREAD NWWD
THROUGH TONIGHT IN A STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME. THE INCREASE IN WAA
WILL CORRESPOND WITH SOME INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR AND STORM
ROTATION POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS AND WAA INITIATION
MECHANISM SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST/SLIGHTLY-ELEVATED STORMS WILL
BE MORE PROBABLE ACROSS NW TX OVERNIGHT.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN.






000
ACUS02 KWNS 211731
SWODY2
SPC AC 211730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF TX
EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX TO THE FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG/SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. OTHER
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES.

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE U.S.
SATURDAY...AS NRN-STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING DIGGING SEWD ACROSS
THE WRN U.S. GRADUALLY PHASES WITH A SRN-STREAM TROUGH SHIFTING
ACROSS NRN MEXICO/TX WITH TIME.  BY SUNDAY MORNING...CYCLONIC FLOW
IS PROGGED TO ENCOMPASS A BROAD SWATH OF THE U.S. FROM THE W COAST
EWD TO THE MS VALLEY VICINITY.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
NRN-STREAM TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGE INTO
THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES OVERNIGHT.  MEANWHILE...MUCH
WEAKER SURFACE RESPONSE IS PROGGED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS THE SRN
STREAM UPPER SYSTEM EMERGES -- WITH A WEAK CYCLONE LIKELY TO CROSS
PARTS OF SRN/ERN TX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...TX EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS...
NNWWD RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SRN-STREAM FEATURE.  RESULTING MODEST DESTABILIZATION --
PARTICULARLY ABOVE A LIKELY-TO-BE-CLOUDY BOUNDARY LAYER -- IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE BROAD/INCREASING ASCENT SPREADING OVER THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO YIELD WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  AS A
RESULT OF THE PERSISTENT BOUNDARY-LAYER CLOUDINESS AND INCREASINGLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...DEEP/MOIST-ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  GIVEN
THIS...AND A STORM MODE LIKELY TO FAVOR NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF STORMS
ACROSS A LARGE AREA...OVERALL SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DESPITE THE ADVANCE OF THE
RELATIVELY VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM.

WITH THAT SAID...A FEW STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE -- MOST
LIKELY ALONG THE SRN AND WRN FRINGES OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ZONE...WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES/GREATER CAPE SHOULD
RESIDE.  GIVEN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...THESE
THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORED ZONES SUGGEST THAT RISK FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND
PERHAPS A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...WILL OPT TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT RISK/15%
PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST.  ONCE ANY MORE FAVORABLE SMALLER-SCALE
CORRIDORS OF POTENTIAL TORNADO RISK BECOME EVIDENT...A DAY 1 UPGRADE
TO 10% TORNADO PROBABILITY/ENHANCED RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

LATER IN THE PERIOD...LIMITED SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD
ACROSS PARTS OF LA AND INTO SRN MS/AL IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
CONTINUED EWD ADVANCE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.  LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

..GOSS.. 11/21/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 211731
SWODY2
SPC AC 211730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF TX
EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX TO THE FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG/SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. OTHER
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES.

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE U.S.
SATURDAY...AS NRN-STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING DIGGING SEWD ACROSS
THE WRN U.S. GRADUALLY PHASES WITH A SRN-STREAM TROUGH SHIFTING
ACROSS NRN MEXICO/TX WITH TIME.  BY SUNDAY MORNING...CYCLONIC FLOW
IS PROGGED TO ENCOMPASS A BROAD SWATH OF THE U.S. FROM THE W COAST
EWD TO THE MS VALLEY VICINITY.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
NRN-STREAM TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGE INTO
THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES OVERNIGHT.  MEANWHILE...MUCH
WEAKER SURFACE RESPONSE IS PROGGED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS THE SRN
STREAM UPPER SYSTEM EMERGES -- WITH A WEAK CYCLONE LIKELY TO CROSS
PARTS OF SRN/ERN TX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...TX EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS...
NNWWD RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SRN-STREAM FEATURE.  RESULTING MODEST DESTABILIZATION --
PARTICULARLY ABOVE A LIKELY-TO-BE-CLOUDY BOUNDARY LAYER -- IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE BROAD/INCREASING ASCENT SPREADING OVER THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO YIELD WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  AS A
RESULT OF THE PERSISTENT BOUNDARY-LAYER CLOUDINESS AND INCREASINGLY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...DEEP/MOIST-ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  GIVEN
THIS...AND A STORM MODE LIKELY TO FAVOR NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF STORMS
ACROSS A LARGE AREA...OVERALL SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DESPITE THE ADVANCE OF THE
RELATIVELY VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM.

WITH THAT SAID...A FEW STRONGER CELLS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE -- MOST
LIKELY ALONG THE SRN AND WRN FRINGES OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ZONE...WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES/GREATER CAPE SHOULD
RESIDE.  GIVEN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...THESE
THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORED ZONES SUGGEST THAT RISK FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND
PERHAPS A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...WILL OPT TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT RISK/15%
PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST.  ONCE ANY MORE FAVORABLE SMALLER-SCALE
CORRIDORS OF POTENTIAL TORNADO RISK BECOME EVIDENT...A DAY 1 UPGRADE
TO 10% TORNADO PROBABILITY/ENHANCED RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

LATER IN THE PERIOD...LIMITED SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD
ACROSS PARTS OF LA AND INTO SRN MS/AL IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
CONTINUED EWD ADVANCE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.  LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS.

..GOSS.. 11/21/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 211631
SWODY1
SPC AC 211629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS MAINLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NW TX INTO SRN OK...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

...SRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL
PROGRESS ESEWD TO NRN MEXICO OVERNIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER JET
STREAK APPROACHING THE PAC COAST.  LOW-LEVEL WAA AND GRADUAL
MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TX WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM
TROUGH.  HOWEVER...NO DRAMATIC INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ELY
TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF INTO TX...AS THE MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS CONFINED TO ALONG AND S OF THE WEAKENING
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE YUCATAN/NW CARIBBEAN.

RELATIVELY DEEP MOIST PROFILES WITH THIS RETURN FLOW CYCLE WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STRATUS WHICH WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING INLAND
ACROSS TX THIS AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM BY
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WEAK BAND OF SLOWLY-DEEPENING CONVECTION NOW
EXTENDING FROM CLL TO JUST W OF CRP/BRO...WHICH WILL SPREAD NWWD
THROUGH TONIGHT IN A STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME. THE INCREASE IN WAA
WILL CORRESPOND WITH SOME INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR AND STORM
ROTATION POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...THE CLOUDS AND WAA INITIATION
MECHANISM SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST/SLIGHTLY-ELEVATED STORMS WILL
BE MORE PROBABLE ACROSS NW TX OVERNIGHT.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 11/21/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 211243
SWODY1
SPC AC 211241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NORTHWEST TX INTO SRN
OK...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

...SYNOPSIS...

THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD IS A
SRN-BRANCH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM SRN CA INTO
NWRN MEXICO BY 22/12Z. AT THE SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE LOWER CO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE TX
PERMIAN BASIN INTO OZARK PLATEAU WEAKENS AS IT DEVELOPS NWD AS A
WARM FRONT.

...SRN PLAINS TONIGHT...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND GPS PW DATA INDICATE THAT CONSIDERABLE
MOISTENING OF THE AIR MASS HAS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT FROM CNTRL TX NWD
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
OVER DEEP SOUTH TX TO THE MID 50S OVER SRN OK AS OF 12Z. SUBSEQUENT
MOISTURE FLUX WILL BE MOST PROMINENT OVER W-CNTRL TX ALONG A SLY LLJ
WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN TO 40-45 KT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS
PROCESS WILL OCCUR BENEATH STEADILY STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML BEING ADVECTED OFF THE PLATEAU REGIONS OF THE
SWRN U.S. AND NRN MEXICO. THESE DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTIONS WILL YIELD
MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG AFTER DARK FROM PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO NWRN TX.

INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR TODAY ALONG THE
WARM-CONVEYOR AIR STREAM FROM PORTIONS OF THE TX COAST INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AMIDST A WEAK-LAPSE-RATE AND ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. WHILE SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY EXHIBIT EPISODIC UPDRAFT
ROTATION OWING TO A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 30-35 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED BY
THE POOR LAPSE RATES.

BY TONIGHT...INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT
REGION OF THE LLJ TO FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF MAINLY ELEVATED
STORMS FROM PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL TX INTO SRN OK. HERE...A FAVORABLE
OVERLAP OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR MAY
PROMOTE A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..MEAD/GLEASON.. 11/21/2014





000
ACUS03 KWNS 210811
SWODY3
SPC AC 210810

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF GULF COAST
STATES AND CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES...TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

...GULF COAST STATES...
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. AN
MCS MAY ONGOING IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AT DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...APPEARING TO MOVE A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM FROM THE NEW
ORLEANS AREA SUNDAY MORNING EWD INTO NRN FL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z/SUN ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F...MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR NEAR 60 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-3
KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 300 TO 350 M2/S2...SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE A TORNADO OR TWO. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY
DEPEND UPON HOW MANY DISCRETE CELLS CAN FORM AHEAD OF THE MAIN MCS.
IF AN MCS CAN REMAIN SUSTAINED OR REDEVELOP IN THE CNTRL GULF COAST
STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THERE COULD BE A SUBSTANTIAL WIND
DAMAGE THREAT AS WELL.

...ERN CAROLINAS...
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE OH
AND TN VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
MARKEDLY INCREASE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S F ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS BY AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST
STATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
00Z/MON FOR CHARLESTON SC SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 750 J/KG WITH 50 KT OF
0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION AS A LINE OR CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WIND DAMAGE MAY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINING CLOSE TO THE SC-NC COAST WHERE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE MOST FAVORABLE.

..BROYLES.. 11/21/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 210615
SWODY2
SPC AC 210614

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX AND
THE TX GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST ON SATURDAY.
OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES...BUT LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER TEXAS.

...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO ON SATURDAY AS
A LOW-LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER SRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN TX WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET IN NORTH TX AND SRN OK. AS SFC TEMPS WARM DURING THE
DAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE
SWD ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND SEWD ONTO THE TX COASTAL PLAIN.
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OR PERHAPS MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
FROM THE TX COASTAL PLAINS SEWD TO THE TX GULF COAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT SAN ANTONIO AND HOUSTON AT 00Z/SUN SHOW MLCAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS THAT HAVE ACCESS TO
MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE GREATEST ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST JUST AHEAD
OF A 60 TO 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. SOME MODELS SUGGEST
THAT A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN CNTRL TX JUST
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS
OUT...THEN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MOVING EWD FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY TO THE VICTORIA AND
HOUSTON AREA WHERE A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NRN MEXICO INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. A SUBTLE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR THE COAST ALONG WITH ABOUT 50
KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE THREAT FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO THREAT COULD DEVELOP WITH
ISOLATED ROTATING CELLS THAT MOVE ONSHORE...THE GREATER THREAT COULD
BE FOR WIND DAMAGE AS A LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 11/21/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 210615
SWODY2
SPC AC 210614

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX AND
THE TX GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST ON SATURDAY.
OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES...BUT LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER TEXAS.

...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO ON SATURDAY AS
A LOW-LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER SRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN TX WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET IN NORTH TX AND SRN OK. AS SFC TEMPS WARM DURING THE
DAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE
SWD ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND SEWD ONTO THE TX COASTAL PLAIN.
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OR PERHAPS MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
FROM THE TX COASTAL PLAINS SEWD TO THE TX GULF COAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT SAN ANTONIO AND HOUSTON AT 00Z/SUN SHOW MLCAPE NEAR
1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 TO 60 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS THAT HAVE ACCESS TO
MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE GREATEST ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST JUST AHEAD
OF A 60 TO 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. SOME MODELS SUGGEST
THAT A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN CNTRL TX JUST
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS
OUT...THEN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON MOVING EWD FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY TO THE VICTORIA AND
HOUSTON AREA WHERE A 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NRN MEXICO INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY ON SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. A SUBTLE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR THE COAST ALONG WITH ABOUT 50
KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE THREAT FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO THREAT COULD DEVELOP WITH
ISOLATED ROTATING CELLS THAT MOVE ONSHORE...THE GREATER THREAT COULD
BE FOR WIND DAMAGE AS A LINE OF STRONG STORMS MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 11/21/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 210545
SWODY1
SPC AC 210544

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NWRN TX INTO FAR SWRN
OK...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHWESTERN TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEPART THE NERN U.S. WITH ZONAL FLOW
BEHIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND SERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC...WITH MOIST SELY
WINDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO TX.

TO THE W...A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS AZ AND
NRN MEXICO DURING THE DAY AND APPROACH FAR SWRN TX BY SAT MORNING.
GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT/HEIGHT FALLS WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
TX...WITH A PERSISTENT AND INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET EVENTUALLY
RESULTING IN CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS NWRN TX
INTO FAR SWRN OK.

...NWRN TX INTO FAR SWRN OK...
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ACROSS MUCH
OF CNTRL AND ERN TX...BUT EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING
AND DESTABILIZATION COURTESY OF POOR LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
EMANATING FROM THE SURFACE HIGH. WHILE SOME DEEP CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE DAY...THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE.

BY EVENING...LIFT FROM WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED BY A 40-50 KT
SLY LOW-LEVEL JET FOCUSED OVER NWRN TX. RELATIVELY COOL PROFILES
ALOFT COMBINED WITH MIXING RATIOS NEAR 16 G/KG WILL SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG STORMS...LIKELY ELEVATED. FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
FAVOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL.

..JEWELL/KERR.. 11/21/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 210059
SWODY1
SPC AC 210057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH LAKE-EFFECT CONVECTIVE
PLUMES IN THE LEE OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
BROAD...TWO-STREAM CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
EARLY FRI...DOWNSTREAM FROM PERSISTENT BLOCK N OF AK. MAIN COMPONENT
OF ERN CANADIAN TROUGH WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY SE ACROSS THE GRT LKS
AND NERN STATES AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING LK
SUPERIOR SWEEPS E TO THE LWR LKS. IN THE SRN BRANCH...A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE SWRN STATES AHEAD OF STRONGER E
PACIFIC TROUGH NOW APPROACHING CNTRL CA.

...CNTRL CA...
COLD AIR ALOFT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES THIS EVENING. 00Z OAK SOUNDING SHOWS COLD AIR ALOFT WITH EL
HEIGHTS ABOVE THE -20 C LEVEL WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
LIGHTNING.

...ERN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX...
00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE REGION CONTINUE TO INDICATE A CAPPING
INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT ATOP A SLOWLY-MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY. WHILE SOME CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO A SLY LOW-LEVEL
JET...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING ARE
LOW.

..JEWELL.. 11/21/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 210059
SWODY1
SPC AC 210057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH LAKE-EFFECT CONVECTIVE
PLUMES IN THE LEE OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
BROAD...TWO-STREAM CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
EARLY FRI...DOWNSTREAM FROM PERSISTENT BLOCK N OF AK. MAIN COMPONENT
OF ERN CANADIAN TROUGH WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY SE ACROSS THE GRT LKS
AND NERN STATES AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING LK
SUPERIOR SWEEPS E TO THE LWR LKS. IN THE SRN BRANCH...A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE SWRN STATES AHEAD OF STRONGER E
PACIFIC TROUGH NOW APPROACHING CNTRL CA.

...CNTRL CA...
COLD AIR ALOFT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES THIS EVENING. 00Z OAK SOUNDING SHOWS COLD AIR ALOFT WITH EL
HEIGHTS ABOVE THE -20 C LEVEL WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
LIGHTNING.

...ERN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX...
00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE REGION CONTINUE TO INDICATE A CAPPING
INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT ATOP A SLOWLY-MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY. WHILE SOME CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT DUE TO A SLY LOW-LEVEL
JET...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING ARE
LOW.

..JEWELL.. 11/21/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 201934
SWODY1
SPC AC 201933

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH LAKE-EFFECT CONVECTIVE
PLUMES IN THE LEE OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
ISOLATED THUNDER MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY EVENING.

...DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

..GOSS.. 11/20/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
BROAD...TWO-STREAM CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
EARLY FRI...DOWNSTREAM FROM PERSISTENT BLOCK N OF AK. MAIN COMPONENT
OF ERN CANADIAN TROUGH WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY SE ACROSS THE GRT LKS
AND NERN STATES AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING LK
SUPERIOR SWEEPS E TO THE LWR LKS. IN THE SRN BRANCH...A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE SWRN STATES AHEAD OF STRONGER E
PACIFIC TROUGH NOW APPROACHING CNTRL CA.

...LEE OF LKS ERIE AND ONT THROUGH EARLY EVE...
LAKE-EFFECT CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL PERSIST...WITH A GRADUAL SWD
MOVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVE. SPORADIC CG LIGHTNING STRIKES
MAY OCCUR GIVEN EXISTING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. AS UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS REGION THIS EVE...EXPECT GRADUAL
VEERING OF LOW-LVL FLOW...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOMING LESS
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND ORIENTED LESS PARALLEL TO THE LONG AXES OF THE
LAKES. THIS WILL DISRUPT CONVECTIVE PLUME DEVELOPMENT...AND LESSEN
LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDER.

...CSTL NRN/CNTRL CA THROUGH LATE AFTN...
COOLING AND ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY E PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AS THE
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES ESE TO THE CNTRL CA CST BY EVE. BOUNDARY LAYER
BUOYANCY OVER CA...HOWEVER...WILL BE LIMITED BY WARM CONVEYOR BELT
CLOUD BAND AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL/EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THIS SETUP
ALSO WILL DIMINISH LOW-LVL ONSHORE FLOW/INFLUX OF MARITIME AIR.
WHILE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPR VORT MAY REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO YIELD A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE CSTL
WATERS...LIKELIHOOD FOR INLAND PENETRATION OF SUCH ACTIVITY APPEARS
LIMITED.

...E/NE TX LATE IN PERIOD...
CONVECTION LIKELY WILL DEEPEN/STRENGTHEN OVER MUCH OF E TX TNGT AND
EARLY FRI AS WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE AHEAD OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES PRECEDING CA TROUGH. ATTM...SATELLITE PW DATA AND SFC
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT LIMITED QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN AND
MODEST DEGREE OF ASCENT WILL PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF
CONVECTION TO POSE AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR LIGHTNING. THIS NOTION IS
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ALSO WILL
REMAIN WEAK. AN ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY...HOWEVER...OCCUR.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 201934
SWODY1
SPC AC 201933

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH LAKE-EFFECT CONVECTIVE
PLUMES IN THE LEE OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
ISOLATED THUNDER MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY EVENING.

...DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

..GOSS.. 11/20/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
BROAD...TWO-STREAM CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
EARLY FRI...DOWNSTREAM FROM PERSISTENT BLOCK N OF AK. MAIN COMPONENT
OF ERN CANADIAN TROUGH WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY SE ACROSS THE GRT LKS
AND NERN STATES AS ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING LK
SUPERIOR SWEEPS E TO THE LWR LKS. IN THE SRN BRANCH...A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE SWRN STATES AHEAD OF STRONGER E
PACIFIC TROUGH NOW APPROACHING CNTRL CA.

...LEE OF LKS ERIE AND ONT THROUGH EARLY EVE...
LAKE-EFFECT CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL PERSIST...WITH A GRADUAL SWD
MOVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVE. SPORADIC CG LIGHTNING STRIKES
MAY OCCUR GIVEN EXISTING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. AS UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS REGION THIS EVE...EXPECT GRADUAL
VEERING OF LOW-LVL FLOW...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOMING LESS
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND ORIENTED LESS PARALLEL TO THE LONG AXES OF THE
LAKES. THIS WILL DISRUPT CONVECTIVE PLUME DEVELOPMENT...AND LESSEN
LIKELIHOOD FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDER.

...CSTL NRN/CNTRL CA THROUGH LATE AFTN...
COOLING AND ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY E PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AS THE
DISTURBANCE CONTINUES ESE TO THE CNTRL CA CST BY EVE. BOUNDARY LAYER
BUOYANCY OVER CA...HOWEVER...WILL BE LIMITED BY WARM CONVEYOR BELT
CLOUD BAND AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL/EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THIS SETUP
ALSO WILL DIMINISH LOW-LVL ONSHORE FLOW/INFLUX OF MARITIME AIR.
WHILE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPR VORT MAY REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO YIELD A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE CSTL
WATERS...LIKELIHOOD FOR INLAND PENETRATION OF SUCH ACTIVITY APPEARS
LIMITED.

...E/NE TX LATE IN PERIOD...
CONVECTION LIKELY WILL DEEPEN/STRENGTHEN OVER MUCH OF E TX TNGT AND
EARLY FRI AS WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE AHEAD OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES PRECEDING CA TROUGH. ATTM...SATELLITE PW DATA AND SFC
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT LIMITED QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN AND
MODEST DEGREE OF ASCENT WILL PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF
CONVECTION TO POSE AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR LIGHTNING. THIS NOTION IS
FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ALSO WILL
REMAIN WEAK. AN ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY...HOWEVER...OCCUR.






000
ACUS11 KWNS 201934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201933
NYZ000-210000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1930
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES
IN NEW YORK

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 201933Z - 210000Z

SUMMARY...A QUASI-STATIONARY CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER AND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST DURING AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...PRODUCING SNOWFALL
RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

DISCUSSION...VIS IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO GIVE
WAY TO A DEEPENING CONVECTIVE BAND. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY/WLY
WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAXIMIZE OVER-LAKE FETCH
LENGTH...PROMOTING CONTINUED GROWTH OF THE LAKE-ENHANCED CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARY LAYER. RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL BUOYANCY EXTENDING
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO -- AS HAS BEEN RECENTLY OBSERVED PER LIGHTNING
DATA -- WHICH WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES TO
4 INCHES PER HOUR. UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE WRN SLOPES OF THE TUG HILL
REGION WILL ALSO FAVOR LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF SIMILAR RATES.
OTHERWISE...2-3-INCH-PER-HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE
CORE OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STEADY STATE
OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

LARGER-SCALE VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SOLITARY-BAND
DISRUPTION...AS ADDRESSED IN RECENTLY ISSUED MCD 1929...CASTS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF SNOWFALL INVOF THE E
END OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WHILE IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LAKE-ONTARIO CONVECTIVE BAND COULD
RE-ORIENT/DIMINISH...MORE SUBSTANTIAL VEERING COULD BE RELEGATED TO
PREDOMINANTLY LAKE ERIE INTO THE EARLY EVENING -- IN WHICH CASE
HEAVY SNOW WOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO VICINITY FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

..COHEN/GOSS.. 11/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...

LAT...LON   43817623 43997580 44067537 43947524 43637559 43617610
            43817623





000
ACUS11 KWNS 201934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201933
NYZ000-210000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1930
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES
IN NEW YORK

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 201933Z - 210000Z

SUMMARY...A QUASI-STATIONARY CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER AND IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST DURING AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...PRODUCING SNOWFALL
RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR.

DISCUSSION...VIS IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO GIVE
WAY TO A DEEPENING CONVECTIVE BAND. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY/WLY
WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAXIMIZE OVER-LAKE FETCH
LENGTH...PROMOTING CONTINUED GROWTH OF THE LAKE-ENHANCED CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARY LAYER. RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MARGINAL BUOYANCY EXTENDING
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO -- AS HAS BEEN RECENTLY OBSERVED PER LIGHTNING
DATA -- WHICH WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES TO
4 INCHES PER HOUR. UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE WRN SLOPES OF THE TUG HILL
REGION WILL ALSO FAVOR LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF SIMILAR RATES.
OTHERWISE...2-3-INCH-PER-HOUR SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE
CORE OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STEADY STATE
OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

LARGER-SCALE VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SOLITARY-BAND
DISRUPTION...AS ADDRESSED IN RECENTLY ISSUED MCD 1929...CASTS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF SNOWFALL INVOF THE E
END OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WHILE IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LAKE-ONTARIO CONVECTIVE BAND COULD
RE-ORIENT/DIMINISH...MORE SUBSTANTIAL VEERING COULD BE RELEGATED TO
PREDOMINANTLY LAKE ERIE INTO THE EARLY EVENING -- IN WHICH CASE
HEAVY SNOW WOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO VICINITY FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

..COHEN/GOSS.. 11/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...

LAT...LON   43817623 43997580 44067537 43947524 43637559 43617610
            43817623





000
ACUS11 KWNS 201852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201852
NYZ000-202345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1929
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...AREAS OF NEW YORK NEAR AND SOUTH OF BUFFALO
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 201852Z - 202345Z

SUMMARY...AN INTENSE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BAND NEAR AND S OF THE BUFFALO
AREA IS LIKELY PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR...AND
WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT-TERM. OTHER AREAS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HEAVY SNOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE SNOW BAND EVOLVES.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A SOLITARY...HEAVY-SNOW
BAND HAVING GRADUALLY EDGED NWD IN THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE. THIS
EVOLUTION MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHT BACKING OF FLOW BELOW 2 KM
AGL SINCE 15Z...PER THE BUF VWP...PERHAPS RELATED TO AN ISALLOBARIC
RESPONSE ACCOMPANYING MODEST SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- PERHAPS THROUGH 21Z OR 22Z -- THE SNOW
BAND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN A QUASI-STEADY-STATE CONFIGURATION FROM
THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF ERIE COUNTY INCLUDING THE SOUTH SUBURBS OF
BUFFALO INTO WYOMING AND SRN GENESEE COUNTIES. KBUF SRM DATA
INDICATE OCCASIONAL MESO-GAMMA-SCALE CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SNOW BAND...WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL-SCALE ENHANCEMENTS
TO VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES -- PERHAPS
REACHING 4 INCHES PER HOUR. OTHERWISE...SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON WITH THE CORE OF THE SNOW BAND.
ALSO...CONVECTIVE TURRETS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SNOW BAND OVER
MID-LAKE PER VIS IMAGERY CORRESPOND TO HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CORES PER
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY OCCUR
OWING TO THE LAKE-ENHANCED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER. SNOWFALL RATES
TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER LOWER MI INDICATE SFC WINDS VEERING...IN
RESPONSE TO PRESSURE RISES ON THE SUBSIDENT/UPSTREAM SIDE OF A
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT...IN THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME...THE BACKGROUND
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL VEER INVOF THE INITIALLY SOLITARY SNOW
BAND. THIS WILL LIKELY DISRUPT THE BAND...PERHAPS SHUNTING IT SWD
TOWARD THE WRN SRN TIER INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES OR BREEDING A FRAGMENTATION OF THE BAND INTO
MULTIPLE SHORTER SEGMENTS. ULTIMATELY...THE VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL CORRESPOND TO A DECREASE IN OVER-LAKE FETCH LENGTH...WITH
SNOWFALL RATES PROBABLY DECREASING BY EARLY EVENING.

..COHEN.. 11/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...

LAT...LON   42447932 42777898 42897858 42937818 42677822 42407893
            42447932





000
ACUS11 KWNS 201852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201852
NYZ000-202345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1929
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...AREAS OF NEW YORK NEAR AND SOUTH OF BUFFALO
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 201852Z - 202345Z

SUMMARY...AN INTENSE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BAND NEAR AND S OF THE BUFFALO
AREA IS LIKELY PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR...AND
WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT-TERM. OTHER AREAS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HEAVY SNOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE SNOW BAND EVOLVES.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A SOLITARY...HEAVY-SNOW
BAND HAVING GRADUALLY EDGED NWD IN THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE. THIS
EVOLUTION MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHT BACKING OF FLOW BELOW 2 KM
AGL SINCE 15Z...PER THE BUF VWP...PERHAPS RELATED TO AN ISALLOBARIC
RESPONSE ACCOMPANYING MODEST SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- PERHAPS THROUGH 21Z OR 22Z -- THE SNOW
BAND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN A QUASI-STEADY-STATE CONFIGURATION FROM
THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF ERIE COUNTY INCLUDING THE SOUTH SUBURBS OF
BUFFALO INTO WYOMING AND SRN GENESEE COUNTIES. KBUF SRM DATA
INDICATE OCCASIONAL MESO-GAMMA-SCALE CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SNOW BAND...WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL-SCALE ENHANCEMENTS
TO VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES -- PERHAPS
REACHING 4 INCHES PER HOUR. OTHERWISE...SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON WITH THE CORE OF THE SNOW BAND.
ALSO...CONVECTIVE TURRETS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SNOW BAND OVER
MID-LAKE PER VIS IMAGERY CORRESPOND TO HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CORES PER
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY OCCUR
OWING TO THE LAKE-ENHANCED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER. SNOWFALL RATES
TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER LOWER MI INDICATE SFC WINDS VEERING...IN
RESPONSE TO PRESSURE RISES ON THE SUBSIDENT/UPSTREAM SIDE OF A
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT...IN THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME...THE BACKGROUND
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL VEER INVOF THE INITIALLY SOLITARY SNOW
BAND. THIS WILL LIKELY DISRUPT THE BAND...PERHAPS SHUNTING IT SWD
TOWARD THE WRN SRN TIER INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES OR BREEDING A FRAGMENTATION OF THE BAND INTO
MULTIPLE SHORTER SEGMENTS. ULTIMATELY...THE VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL CORRESPOND TO A DECREASE IN OVER-LAKE FETCH LENGTH...WITH
SNOWFALL RATES PROBABLY DECREASING BY EARLY EVENING.

..COHEN.. 11/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...

LAT...LON   42447932 42777898 42897858 42937818 42677822 42407893
            42447932





000
ACUS11 KWNS 201852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201852
NYZ000-202345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1929
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...AREAS OF NEW YORK NEAR AND SOUTH OF BUFFALO
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 201852Z - 202345Z

SUMMARY...AN INTENSE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BAND NEAR AND S OF THE BUFFALO
AREA IS LIKELY PRODUCING SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER HOUR...AND
WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT-TERM. OTHER AREAS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HEAVY SNOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE SNOW BAND EVOLVES.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A SOLITARY...HEAVY-SNOW
BAND HAVING GRADUALLY EDGED NWD IN THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE. THIS
EVOLUTION MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHT BACKING OF FLOW BELOW 2 KM
AGL SINCE 15Z...PER THE BUF VWP...PERHAPS RELATED TO AN ISALLOBARIC
RESPONSE ACCOMPANYING MODEST SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.

DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- PERHAPS THROUGH 21Z OR 22Z -- THE SNOW
BAND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN A QUASI-STEADY-STATE CONFIGURATION FROM
THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF ERIE COUNTY INCLUDING THE SOUTH SUBURBS OF
BUFFALO INTO WYOMING AND SRN GENESEE COUNTIES. KBUF SRM DATA
INDICATE OCCASIONAL MESO-GAMMA-SCALE CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SNOW BAND...WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL-SCALE ENHANCEMENTS
TO VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES -- PERHAPS
REACHING 4 INCHES PER HOUR. OTHERWISE...SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON WITH THE CORE OF THE SNOW BAND.
ALSO...CONVECTIVE TURRETS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SNOW BAND OVER
MID-LAKE PER VIS IMAGERY CORRESPOND TO HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CORES PER
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY OCCUR
OWING TO THE LAKE-ENHANCED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER. SNOWFALL RATES
TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER LOWER MI INDICATE SFC WINDS VEERING...IN
RESPONSE TO PRESSURE RISES ON THE SUBSIDENT/UPSTREAM SIDE OF A
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT...IN THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME...THE BACKGROUND
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL VEER INVOF THE INITIALLY SOLITARY SNOW
BAND. THIS WILL LIKELY DISRUPT THE BAND...PERHAPS SHUNTING IT SWD
TOWARD THE WRN SRN TIER INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES OR BREEDING A FRAGMENTATION OF THE BAND INTO
MULTIPLE SHORTER SEGMENTS. ULTIMATELY...THE VEERING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL CORRESPOND TO A DECREASE IN OVER-LAKE FETCH LENGTH...WITH
SNOWFALL RATES PROBABLY DECREASING BY EARLY EVENING.

..COHEN.. 11/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...

LAT...LON   42447932 42777898 42897858 42937818 42677822 42407893
            42447932






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