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000
ACUS02 KWNS 241650
SWODY2
SPC AC 241650

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN OREGON...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...OR A
WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ASHORE THE PACIFIC COAST WITH JET STREAK
SITUATED FROM NRN CA INTO ERN OREGON BY MIDDAY. STRONG COOLING ALOFT
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN OREGON.

TO THE E...AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LEFT-ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL NOSE INTO LAKE ONTARIO/NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL COOLING
ALOFT AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
ALONG A COLD FRONT DESPITE MINUSCULE INSTABILITY.

...NRN CA INTO SWRN OREGON...
A LEADING BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BE STRONG...LAPSE RATES WILL NOT FAVOR SEVERE ACTIVITY.

THE GREATER CHANCE OF A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL OCCUR WHEN
COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY
WITH MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 500 J/KG DEVELOPING. SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WHICH MAY EXIST BOTH
OVER THE WATER AND INLAND WHERE CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED DUE TO
TERRAIN INFLUENCES. SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL.. 10/24/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 241624
SWODY1
SPC AC 241622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL AFFECT FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE SRN
FL COAST...MOST WILL STAY OFFSHORE.

...EXTREME SRN FL...

AN UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH A STALLED FRONT OFF THE SRN
FL COAST HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OFFSHORE ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT. THE
12Z RAOBS FROM MIAMI AND KEY WEST INDICATE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS
EXTREME SRN FL WHICH IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SEWD AWAY FROM THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE IMPULSE CONTINUES EAST AND THE FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SEWD.

..DIAL.. 10/24/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 241229
SWODY1
SPC AC 241228

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS.

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY
WELL-DEFINED/SYNOPTIC-SCALE RIDGE -- NOW LOCATED OVER ROCKY MOUNTAIN
STATES.  THIS RIDGE IS FCST TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE SLIGHTLY EWD TO HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH PERIOD...WITH BROADENING FLANKS OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
SOME OF THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL BE RELATED TO DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW OVER SRN SK AND FCST TO STRENGTHEN GREATLY BY 12Z AS IT
REACHES NRN ONT AND LS.  FARTHER SE...NEARLY PHASED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS PRESENTLY OVER INDIANA AND PORTIONS MS/AL WILL DIG SEWD AND
BECOME MORE CLOSELY CONNECTED.  BY END OF PERIOD...SUBSTANTIAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT FROM COASTAL CAROLINAS SSWWD ACROSS
CENTRAL FL TO EXTREME ERN GULF.

MEANWHILE...HIGH-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NERN
PAC...WITH STRONG/BASAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED W OF CA BETWEEN
135W-140W.  LATTER PERTURBATION SHOULD PIVOT ENEWD TOWARD W COAST.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH PRECEDING RIBBON OF STG
MID-UPPER-LEVEL DCVA STILL SHOULD BE POSITIONED JUST OFFSHORE AROUND
12Z.  ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE AND ACCOMPANYING PRECIP BAND
MAY MOVE INLAND DURING LAST 4-6 HOURS OF PERIOD...BUT WITH LAPSE
RATES TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT AOA 10% GEN-TSTM RISK INLAND.

...S FL AND KEYS...
RESIDUAL/LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS FL
STRAITS/KEYS THROUGH TODAY.  FRONTAL ZONE THEN SHOULD START MOVING
SWD AGAIN...AS SERN-CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHS WITH WEAK
FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS PASSING ENEWD OVER STRAITS AND BAHAMAS.
ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVE PLUME ACROSS THIS REGION...INCLUDING
ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDER.  ALTHOUGH BULK OF CONVECTION DEEP ENOUGH
TO GENERATE LTG SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE...SOME TSTMS MAY BRUSH SERN
PENINSULA AND/OR KEYS.

..EDWARDS/JIRAK.. 10/24/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 240717
SWODY3
SPC AC 240716

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO IDENTIFY A MARGINAL SEVERE-HAIL AREA.

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT E FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE NRN
GREAT PLAINS THROUGH EARLY MON...WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE MOVING FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD
TRACK FROM THE LEE OF THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SRN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING E AND REACHING THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NE
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SUN NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE
DEGREE OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY AS THE NAM AND WRF-BASED SREF MEMBERS
APPEAR MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH 850-700 MB MOISTURE RETURN COMPARED TO
THE GFS AND NON-NCEP MODELS. LEANING WITH THE LESS AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE...THE PREDOMINANT SWLY FLOW REGIME SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP
TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE PLUME
WHERE BUOYANCY SHOULD BE WEAK. GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
DEPARTING MID-LEVEL RIDGE...EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE.
IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PROBABLE CLUSTER MODE...IT APPEARS PREMATURE
TO HIGHLIGHT WHAT MAY ONLY BE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL POTENTIAL.

..GRAMS.. 10/24/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 240544
SWODY2
SPC AC 240543

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF NRN CA AND SWRN
ORE...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST COAST. A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST OREGON FROM LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ASHORE FROM
NRN CA TO WA...DAMPENING AS IT PENETRATES INLAND ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD TRACK FROM THE PACIFIC
NW COAST TOWARDS THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING
E ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

...NRN CA TO SWRN ORE...
COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
SPORADIC CHARGE SEPARATION WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. DESPITE
DAMPENING OF THE TROUGH...INITIALLY INTENSE LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS
/CHARACTERIZED BY 700 MB FLOW AOA 60 KT/ WILL FAVOR ENLARGED
HODOGRAPHS AND RATHER STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN
MEAGER...SBCAPE AOB 500 J/KG...WITH LIMITED SURFACE INSOLATION. BUT
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS...LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO APPEAR POSSIBLE. BY LATE DAY...INCREASINGLY
VEERED/DIMINISHING WINDS WILL CURTAIL THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.

..GRAMS.. 10/24/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 240510
SWODY1
SPC AC 240508

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA
INCLUDING THE KEYS.

...SOUTH FL...

WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
FRIDAY AHEAD OF DIGGING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD
INDUCE A SFC WAVE ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE FL STRAITS.
ALTHOUGH NELY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW SHOULD HOLD ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...WARM ADVECTION MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING DEEP
CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PENETRATING LEVELS NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE SRN COAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...PRIMARY THREAT FOR LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

..DARROW/DIAL.. 10/24/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 240057
SWODY1
SPC AC 240055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND PERHAPS OVER FAR SOUTH FLORIDA.

...PACIFIC NW...

00Z SOUNDING AT UIL DEPICTS SUBSTANTIAL BUOYANCY WITH 500 J/KG
SBCAPE OBSERVED.  LATEST RADAR DATA EXHIBITS SCT CONVECTION WITHIN A
POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LIGHTNING.  WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN FEWER STORMS BY MIDNIGHT.

...SOUTH FL...

WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHALLOW ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FL STRAITS.  MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT
PRODUCING LIGHTNING AS LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE WEAK.  EVEN SO...A FEW
UPDRAFTS MAY ATTAIN HEIGHTS NECESSARY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING THROUGH
12Z.

..DARROW.. 10/24/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 231850
SWODY1
SPC AC 231848

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...FAR SOUTH FLORIDA...AND PARTS OF COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND.  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..JEWELL.. 10/23/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE POSITIONED OFF THE SRN COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NEWD TODAY. DECAYING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL ENCOUNTER A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO THE E.
FARTHER W...A BELT OF STRONG W-SWLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE PAC NW...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK VORT MAXIMA
QUICKLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE PACIFIC TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES.

...PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION/LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE TRAVERSES
NEWD. ANEMIC INSTABILITY AND NEBULOUS FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN ONLY VERY ISOLATED TSTM COVERAGE.

...COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED NEAR COASTAL MAINE
THIS MORNING WITHIN THE NRN SEMI-CIRCLE OF AN OFFSHORE CYCLONE. THIS
THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASINGLY
BECOME FOCUSED OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS NEWD.

...S FL...
ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING NEAR A
STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 231850
SWODY1
SPC AC 231848

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...FAR SOUTH FLORIDA...AND PARTS OF COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND.  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..JEWELL.. 10/23/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE POSITIONED OFF THE SRN COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NEWD TODAY. DECAYING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL ENCOUNTER A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO THE E.
FARTHER W...A BELT OF STRONG W-SWLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE PAC NW...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK VORT MAXIMA
QUICKLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE PACIFIC TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES.

...PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION/LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE TRAVERSES
NEWD. ANEMIC INSTABILITY AND NEBULOUS FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN ONLY VERY ISOLATED TSTM COVERAGE.

...COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED NEAR COASTAL MAINE
THIS MORNING WITHIN THE NRN SEMI-CIRCLE OF AN OFFSHORE CYCLONE. THIS
THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASINGLY
BECOME FOCUSED OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS NEWD.

...S FL...
ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING NEAR A
STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT.






000
ACUS02 KWNS 231628
SWODY2
SPC AC 231628

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA
INCLUDING THE KEYS.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN INACTIVE PATTERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE FAR SRN FL...WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST ALONG WITH
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A
DEARTH OF WIND SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

ELSEWHERE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC COAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE WITH
ACTIVITY OVER THE OCEAN.

..JEWELL.. 10/23/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 231627
SWODY1
SPC AC 231625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...FAR SOUTH FLORIDA...AND PARTS OF COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND.  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE POSITIONED OFF THE SRN COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NEWD TODAY. DECAYING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL ENCOUNTER A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO THE E.
FARTHER W...A BELT OF STRONG W-SWLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE PAC NW...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK VORT MAXIMA
QUICKLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE PACIFIC TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES.

...PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION/LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE TRAVERSES
NEWD. ANEMIC INSTABILITY AND NEBULOUS FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN ONLY VERY ISOLATED TSTM COVERAGE.

...COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED NEAR COASTAL MAINE
THIS MORNING WITHIN THE NRN SEMI-CIRCLE OF AN OFFSHORE CYCLONE. THIS
THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASINGLY
BECOME FOCUSED OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS NEWD.

...S FL...
ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING NEAR A
STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT.

..ROGERS/HART.. 10/23/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 231224
SWODY1
SPC AC 231222

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...FAR SOUTH FLORIDA...AND PARTS OF COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND.  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

...SYNOPSIS...

A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE SITUATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NEWD IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO OH/TN VALLEYS AND CNTRL
GULF STATES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATTER FEATURE...A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NWRN MEXICO AND THE SRN ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS PRESENT WITHIN THE BASE
OF A NERN PACIFIC LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO NRN PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS WILL WEAKEN TODAY WHILE SHIFTING EWD. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO ARKLATEX WILL
MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY ONE
PERIOD.

...PACIFIC NW INTO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

A NUMBER OF WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL MOVE INLAND THIS PERIOD ON
THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE HIGH-MOMENTUM AIR STREAM MENTIONED ABOVE.
COOLING ALOFT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL PROMOTE A FEW TSTMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND IN THE
WAKE OF A PACIFIC FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION.

...FAR ERN NEW ENGLAND...

THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST...A
FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH THE CAPE COD AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
WITHIN THE NRN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE.

...S FL...

ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INVOF A WEAK FRONT SETTLING
SWD THROUGH THE REGION.

...MIDWEST...

SPORADIC LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
MIDWEST WITHIN THE WARM-CONVEYOR AIR STREAM PRECEDING THE GREAT
PLAINS MID-LEVEL TROUGH. WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
DISPLACED FROM A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRESENT OVER THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AS SUCH...NO TSTM AREA WILL BE INCLUDED.

..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 10/23/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 230727
SWODY3
SPC AC 230726

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
OVER COASTAL REGIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON.

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE ASHORE THE
WRN U.S. AND INTO THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS DURING THE DAY 3
PERIOD.  DOWNSTREAM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...A
STRONG SPEED MAXIMA WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST U.S. WHILE A TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINAS MOVES FARTHER E INTO
THE ATLANTIC.

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW STATES
FROM THE SW WHILE A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS.  MEANWHILE FARTHER E...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL U.S. INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST.

...NRN CA/ORE COAST...
COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS FROM MAINLY THE COASTAL REGION OF NRN CA INTO ORE.  DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF AN INCREASINGLY STRONG WIND PROFILE...ONLY POCKETS
OF WEAK BUOYANCY ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH WITH PERHAPS THE STRONGEST UPDRAFT OR TWO BEING CAPABLE OF
SMALL HAIL.

..SMITH.. 10/23/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 230504
SWODY2
SPC AC 230503

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
AND SRN PLAINS WHILE A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SERN U.S. AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR S FL AND THE FL KEYS WITHIN
A VERY MOIST AND NEAR-NEUTRAL LAPSE RATE PROFILE.
ELSEWHERE...STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PROVE HOSTILE TO
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.

..SMITH.. 10/23/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 230504
SWODY2
SPC AC 230503

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
AND SRN PLAINS WHILE A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SERN U.S. AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR S FL AND THE FL KEYS WITHIN
A VERY MOIST AND NEAR-NEUTRAL LAPSE RATE PROFILE.
ELSEWHERE...STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PROVE HOSTILE TO
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.

..SMITH.. 10/23/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 230502
SWODY1
SPC AC 230501

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...FAR SOUTH FLORIDA...AND PARTS OF COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND.  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

...SYNOPSIS...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE CONUS
THURSDAY AS LIMITED BUOYANCY WILL BE PRESENT WHERE FAVORED REGIONS
OF ASCENT ARE EXPECTED.  LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE TOWARDS MOIST DEEP CONVECTION AS OFFSHORE FLOW
INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE ERN PART OF THE U.S.

...COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN WARM ADVECTION
ZONE ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING CYCLONE.  EARLY IN THE PERIOD MOIST
ASCENT WITHIN THE 850-700MB LAYER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
CONVECTION THAT COULD ATTAIN HEIGHTS NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING
DISCHARGE.  HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 18Z AND
THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

...SOUTH FL...

FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL ACROSS THE STRAITS AS SRN INFLUENCE OF
SECONDARY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE FL PENINSULA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THIS WIND SHIFT SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO ASCENT NECESSARY FOR WEAK CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED LIGHTNING.

...PACIFIC NW...

PROFILES WILL COOL ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AS COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE WA COAST
SUGGEST SFC-BASED PARCELS COULD REACH LEVELS AS HIGH AS 6KM...MORE
THAN ADEQUATE FOR LIGHTING PRODUCTION.  GREATEST RISK ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.  FARTHER INLAND...A FEW
STORMS COULD FORM ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS ERN WA
INTO FAR WESTERN MT.

..DARROW/MARSH.. 10/23/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 230502
SWODY1
SPC AC 230501

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...FAR SOUTH FLORIDA...AND PARTS OF COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND.  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

...SYNOPSIS...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE CONUS
THURSDAY AS LIMITED BUOYANCY WILL BE PRESENT WHERE FAVORED REGIONS
OF ASCENT ARE EXPECTED.  LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE TOWARDS MOIST DEEP CONVECTION AS OFFSHORE FLOW
INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE ERN PART OF THE U.S.

...COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN WARM ADVECTION
ZONE ON BACK SIDE OF EXITING CYCLONE.  EARLY IN THE PERIOD MOIST
ASCENT WITHIN THE 850-700MB LAYER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
CONVECTION THAT COULD ATTAIN HEIGHTS NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING
DISCHARGE.  HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 18Z AND
THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

...SOUTH FL...

FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL ACROSS THE STRAITS AS SRN INFLUENCE OF
SECONDARY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE FL PENINSULA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.  WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THIS WIND SHIFT SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO ASCENT NECESSARY FOR WEAK CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED LIGHTNING.

...PACIFIC NW...

PROFILES WILL COOL ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AS COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE WA COAST
SUGGEST SFC-BASED PARCELS COULD REACH LEVELS AS HIGH AS 6KM...MORE
THAN ADEQUATE FOR LIGHTING PRODUCTION.  GREATEST RISK ALONG THE
COAST WILL BE WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.  FARTHER INLAND...A FEW
STORMS COULD FORM ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS ERN WA
INTO FAR WESTERN MT.

..DARROW/MARSH.. 10/23/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 230040
SWODY1
SPC AC 230039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OTHER ISOLATED STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...NEW ENGLAND...

SCT CONVECTION PERSISTS WITHIN STRONG WARM ADVECTION ZONE JUST NW OF
SFC LOW.  LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WARM SECTOR
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO LONG ISLAND.  00Z SOUNDING FROM OKX SUPPORTS
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STRONG NELY FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC.  WHILE
ELEVATED UPDRAFTS MAY EXHIBIT ORGANIZATION AT TIMES...THE PROSPECT
FOR 50KT+ CONVECTIVE WINDS REACHING THE SFC APPEARS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT SEVERE PROBS ATTM.

...ELSEWHERE...

WEAK BUOYANCY BUT MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
SRN/CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVENING.  A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGRESSING EWD AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK GIVEN THE
LIMITED BUOYANCY.

ISOLATED LIGHTNING MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED OFF THE SRN FL PENINSULA AND
PERHAPS OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUT WEAK FORCING/BUOYANCY SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN VERY SPARSE.

..DARROW.. 10/23/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 230040
SWODY1
SPC AC 230039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  OTHER ISOLATED STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...NEW ENGLAND...

SCT CONVECTION PERSISTS WITHIN STRONG WARM ADVECTION ZONE JUST NW OF
SFC LOW.  LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WARM SECTOR
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO LONG ISLAND.  00Z SOUNDING FROM OKX SUPPORTS
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STRONG NELY FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC.  WHILE
ELEVATED UPDRAFTS MAY EXHIBIT ORGANIZATION AT TIMES...THE PROSPECT
FOR 50KT+ CONVECTIVE WINDS REACHING THE SFC APPEARS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT SEVERE PROBS ATTM.

...ELSEWHERE...

WEAK BUOYANCY BUT MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE
SRN/CNTRL PLAINS THIS EVENING.  A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGRESSING EWD AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK GIVEN THE
LIMITED BUOYANCY.

ISOLATED LIGHTNING MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED OFF THE SRN FL PENINSULA AND
PERHAPS OVER THE PACIFIC NW BUT WEAK FORCING/BUOYANCY SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN VERY SPARSE.

..DARROW.. 10/23/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 221948
SWODY1
SPC AC 221946

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS.

...DISCUSSION...

ONLY MODEST ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THIS
UPDATE.

..DIAL.. 10/22/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE
JUST OFF THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST TODAY...AND THE RISK FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT OVER SE NEW ENGLAND.
HERE...LOW-LEVEL WAA/ASCENT AND WEAK BUOYANCY ROOTED NEAR 850 MB
WILL SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.  THE STRONGER BUOYANCY
AND ANY ASSOCIATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE.

ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE WRN
DAKOTAS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A WEAK
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONE OF ASCENT ALOFT PRECEDING THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT.  FARTHER S IN THE PLAINS...A WEAK SWD EXTENSION OF THE NRN
PLAINS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY.
A MOISTURE PLUME IN ADVANCE OF THIS WEAK WAVE WILL SUPPORT  A RISK
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM W TX NNEWD INTO KS.  ISOLATED
SURFACE-BASED STORMS COULD FORM ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
DRIFTING INTO W/NW KS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME...AND WILL BE BEHIND THE WEAK WAVE
ALOFT BY MID AFTERNOON.  CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORM
INITIATION AND THE VERY MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC/VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY
HAIL PROBABILITIES.

OTHERWISE...SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PAC NW COAST AS THE NEXT STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND.  AS WITH THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS
...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS S FL AND S TX.






000
ACUS02 KWNS 221722
SWODY2
SPC AC 221721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. OTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

...SYNOPSIS...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD
ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC SEABOARD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
FARTHER WEST AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE MS VALLEY AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES...OH AND TN VALLEYS THURSDAY
NIGHT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM OVER THE PACIFIC NW
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SWRN STATES.


...ERN OK AND ERN KS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION...

A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING
FROM ERN PORTIONS OF SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY
REGION WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK ASCENT EAST OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE
TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THIS ZONE OF MODEST ASCENT TO SHIFT EAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS...SUGGESTING TREND SHOULD BE FOR MORNING
CONVECTION TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL DECREASE.

...PACIFIC NW...

STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WITHIN
THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY.
ZONES OF DEEPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
FURTHER PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING.

...SRN FL...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER DEEP S FL IN VICINITY
OF STALLED FRONT.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND...

SCATTERED CONVECTION INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY
OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND.

..DIAL.. 10/22/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 221722
SWODY2
SPC AC 221721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. OTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

...SYNOPSIS...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD
ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC SEABOARD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
FARTHER WEST AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE MS VALLEY AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES...OH AND TN VALLEYS THURSDAY
NIGHT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM OVER THE PACIFIC NW
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SWRN STATES.


...ERN OK AND ERN KS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION...

A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING
FROM ERN PORTIONS OF SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY
REGION WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK ASCENT EAST OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE
TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THIS ZONE OF MODEST ASCENT TO SHIFT EAST OF
WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS...SUGGESTING TREND SHOULD BE FOR MORNING
CONVECTION TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL DECREASE.

...PACIFIC NW...

STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WITHIN
THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY.
ZONES OF DEEPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
FURTHER PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING.

...SRN FL...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER DEEP S FL IN VICINITY
OF STALLED FRONT.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND...

SCATTERED CONVECTION INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY
OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND.

..DIAL.. 10/22/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 221628
SWODY1
SPC AC 221626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE COASTAL NORTHEAST...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE
JUST OFF THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST TODAY...AND THE RISK FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT OVER SE NEW ENGLAND.
HERE...LOW-LEVEL WAA/ASCENT AND WEAK BUOYANCY ROOTED NEAR 850 MB
WILL SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.  THE STRONGER BUOYANCY
AND ANY ASSOCIATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE.

ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE WRN
DAKOTAS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A WEAK
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONE OF ASCENT ALOFT PRECEDING THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT.  FARTHER S IN THE PLAINS...A WEAK SWD EXTENSION OF THE NRN
PLAINS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY.
A MOISTURE PLUME IN ADVANCE OF THIS WEAK WAVE WILL SUPPORT  A RISK
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM W TX NNEWD INTO KS.  ISOLATED
SURFACE-BASED STORMS COULD FORM ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
DRIFTING INTO W/NW KS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME...AND WILL BE BEHIND THE WEAK WAVE
ALOFT BY MID AFTERNOON.  CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORM
INITIATION AND THE VERY MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC/VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY
HAIL PROBABILITIES.

OTHERWISE...SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PAC NW COAST AS THE NEXT STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND.  AS WITH THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS
...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS S FL AND S TX.

..THOMPSON/KERR.. 10/22/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 221628
SWODY1
SPC AC 221626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE COASTAL NORTHEAST...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE
JUST OFF THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST TODAY...AND THE RISK FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT OVER SE NEW ENGLAND.
HERE...LOW-LEVEL WAA/ASCENT AND WEAK BUOYANCY ROOTED NEAR 850 MB
WILL SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.  THE STRONGER BUOYANCY
AND ANY ASSOCIATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE.

ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE WRN
DAKOTAS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A WEAK
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONE OF ASCENT ALOFT PRECEDING THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT.  FARTHER S IN THE PLAINS...A WEAK SWD EXTENSION OF THE NRN
PLAINS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY.
A MOISTURE PLUME IN ADVANCE OF THIS WEAK WAVE WILL SUPPORT  A RISK
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM W TX NNEWD INTO KS.  ISOLATED
SURFACE-BASED STORMS COULD FORM ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
DRIFTING INTO W/NW KS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME...AND WILL BE BEHIND THE WEAK WAVE
ALOFT BY MID AFTERNOON.  CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORM
INITIATION AND THE VERY MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC/VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY
HAIL PROBABILITIES.

OTHERWISE...SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PAC NW COAST AS THE NEXT STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND.  AS WITH THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS
...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS S FL AND S TX.

..THOMPSON/KERR.. 10/22/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 221515
SWODY3
SPC AC 221514

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
ASHORE THE PACIFIC NW STATES BY EARLY SATURDAY WHILE A DOWNSTREAM
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES WEST TO EAST ALONG THE N-CNTRL U.S. AND
CANADA BORDER.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. WILL MOVE INTO
THE BASE OF A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AND PROMOTE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FL STRAITS AND S
FL...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CONUS AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

..SMITH.. 10/22/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 221236
SWODY1
SPC AC 221234

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE COASTAL NORTHEAST...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS.

...SYNOPSIS...

A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
NEWD IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. FARTHER W...A BELT OF STRONG
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC NW
COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE FAR
NERN PACIFIC.

AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY. THE TRAILING EXTENSION
OF THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

...CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NON-SEVERE TSTM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
FROM SWRN TX INTO THE MID MO VALLEY ALONG THE WARM-CONVEYOR AIR
STREAM PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH. OTHER
DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG FAVORED TERRAIN OF
THE CNTRL AND SRN ROCKIES. TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE BY
MID TO LATE EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.

...MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS /MOST OF WHICH ARE OFFSHORE/ ARE ONGOING
THIS MORNING WITHIN A CONVECTIVE BAND ENCOMPASSING THE DEEP-LAYER
LOW. THE INTERACTION OF STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH
SENSIBLE HEAT AND MOISTURE FLUXES WITHIN THE OCEANIC BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY PIVOT
NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE A COUPLE STRONG STORMS COULD BRUSH
THE COASTS OF LONG ISLAND AND FAR SERN MA...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.

...ELSEWHERE...

A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF TX AND FL AS
WELL AS ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST.

..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 10/22/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 220716
SWODY3
SPC AC 220715

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
ASHORE THE PACIFIC NW STATES BY EARLY SATURDAY WHILE A DOWNSTREAM
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVES WEST TO EAST ALONG THE N-CNTRL U.S. AND
CANADA BORDER.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. WILL MOVE INTO
THE BASE OF A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AND PROMOTE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FL STRAITS AND S
FL...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CONUS AND SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

..SMITH.. 10/22/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 220602
SWODY1
SPC AC 220600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL NORTHEAST...PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS
TO THE WEST OF A CLOSED CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST SEABOARD. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN
EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS INCLUDING SOUTH
FL...THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND THE COASTAL NORTHEAST
STATES WHERE A MODESTLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL GRAZE COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST...
DPVA/WARM ADVECTION PRECEDING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS FAR NORTHEAST AS THE
UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
MODESTLY BUOYANT WARM SECTOR ADJACENT TO THE ADVANCING FRONT...OR
POSSIBLY ACROSS EASTERN CO IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL
UPSLOPE. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR/LIMITED MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE NOT CURRENTLY
WARRANTED.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 10/22/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 220505
SWODY2
SPC AC 220504

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE THURSDAY OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.  MEANWHILE
FARTHER W...A BROAD BELT OF PREDOMINATELY STRONG WLY MID-UPPER FLOW
OVER THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS WILL SPILL EWD INTO THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS STATES.

A COLD FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ARCING SWD INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE DURING THE DAY AS WEAK
LEE TROUGHING OCCURS FARTHER W IN THE WRN DAKOTAS SWD INTO THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS.  SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THURSDAY INVOF THE FRONT FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY SWWD
INTO ERN OK.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE FL KEYS/SRN FL PENINSULA...W-CNTRL TX...AND PERHAPS PARTS
OF THE NRN ROCKIES.

..SMITH.. 10/22/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 220505
SWODY2
SPC AC 220504

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE THURSDAY OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.  MEANWHILE
FARTHER W...A BROAD BELT OF PREDOMINATELY STRONG WLY MID-UPPER FLOW
OVER THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS WILL SPILL EWD INTO THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS STATES.

A COLD FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ARCING SWD INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE DURING THE DAY AS WEAK
LEE TROUGHING OCCURS FARTHER W IN THE WRN DAKOTAS SWD INTO THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS.  SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THURSDAY INVOF THE FRONT FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY SWWD
INTO ERN OK.  ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE FL KEYS/SRN FL PENINSULA...W-CNTRL TX...AND PERHAPS PARTS
OF THE NRN ROCKIES.

..SMITH.. 10/22/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 220102
SWODY1
SPC AC 220100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ROCKIES TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS.

...ROCKIES TO NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH SOME LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE EASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING SD/NORTHERN NEB. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

..GUYER.. 10/22/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 211930
SWODY1
SPC AC 211929

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE ROCKIES...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
TEXAS...SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WELL AS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
MIDDLE-ATLANTIC REGION.

...DISCUSSION..

CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE.

..DIAL.. 10/21/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TO SE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON...AS AN
UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.  THIS CLOSED LOW WILL THEN DRIFT EWD TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
IS EXPECTED NEAR AND JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED OVER LAND
IN THIS PATTERN...COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY AND THE RISK FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONE OF ASCENT PRECEDING THE
DEVELOPING MIDLEVEL LOW.

ELSEWHERE...A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ENEWD FROM
ID TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY BY LATE TONIGHT.
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT WEAK BUOYANCY AND A CONTINUED RISK FOR WIDELY-SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO PARTS OF THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON.  A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM SW TX INTO NM WITHIN THE
LINGERING MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SRN STREAM
TROUGH.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE NRN FRINGE
OF THE TROPICAL AIR MASS ACROSS S TX AND S FL TODAY.






000
ACUS02 KWNS 211715
SWODY2
SPC AC 211714

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEDNESDAY. A FEW
STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST INTO COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND A SMALL PART OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

...SYNOPSIS...

ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW AND STALL OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES WILL PHASE WITH A WEAK SRN STREAM
TROUGH AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE MS
VALLEY AREA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ADVANCE THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...REACHING THE UPPER MS
VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN OCCLUDED SFC LOW EXPECTED TO BE
JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DEVELOP
NWD DURING THE DAY.

...PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...

OWING TO OFFSHORE NEAR SFC WINDS OVER THE GULF...INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN LIMITED OVER THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. NEVERTHELESS...AT
LEAST WEAK MUCAPE /200-400 J/KG/ WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WITHIN PLUME OF 6.5-7 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NEWD ABOVE THE SFC LAYER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AS ZONE
OF DEEPER ASCENT SHIFTS EAST...REACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...ELSEWHERE...

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONT OVER SRN FL...IN ASSOCIATION WITH CLOSED
UPPER LOW ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTS AS WELL
AS OVER COASTAL WASHINGTON STATE.

..DIAL.. 10/21/2014






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