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000
ACUS01 KWNS 241631
SWODY1
SPC AC 241630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX ENE INTO THE
LWR OH...LWR TN...AND LWR MS VLYS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING EAST INTO PARTS OF THE
LOWER OHIO...LOWER TENNESSEE...AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
PROGRESSIVE...MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE LWR
48 THROUGH FRI...DOWNSTREAM FROM BROAD...AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE NE
PACIFIC. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSED THE SWRN U.S. YESTERDAY IS
NOW OVER NW OK. THE COMPACT...FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE
GENERALLY ENE INTO MO/NRN AR THIS EVE...AND INTO IND/CNTRL KY EARLY
FRI...AS IT ASSUMES A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT.

ELONGATED SFC LOW NOW OVER ERN KS/NE OK...LARGELY AN EWD-DISPLACED
LEE TROUGH...SHOULD CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVER CNTRL MO LATER
TODAY...AND OVER CNTRL PORTIONS OF IL AND IND TNGT/EARLY FRI...AS
UPR VORT OVERTAKES THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TRAILING SW INTO E TX. THE COLD FRONT...AND STRENGTHENING CONFLUENCE
AXES TO ITS EAST...WILL SERVE TO FOCUS LOW-LVL UPLIFT AND POTENTIAL
SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT IN MOISTENING LOW-LVL
ENVIRONMENT OVER SRN MO...AR...AND PERHAPS NE TX EWD INTO PARTS OF
THE LWR OH...LWR TN...AND LWR MS VLYS.

...OZARKS/ARKLATEX EWD INTO THE LWR OH...LWR TN...AND LWR MS VLYS
TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
A CONCENTRATED BAND OF STRONG DCVA/LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL TRACK E
ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND MO TODAY...AND THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS TNGT...
AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE OK UPR VORT. AT THE SAME TIME...ASSOCIATED BAND
OF 40-60 KT 700-500 MB FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...CREATING A
WIND ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SVR STORMS/SUPERCELLS. MOISTURE
INITIALLY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ESPECIALLY E OF THE
OZARKS/OUACHITAS. BUT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE NWD THROUGH THE LWR MS
VLY LATER TODAY INTO TNGT...AND LIKELY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
SVR STORMS...ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD YIELD A TORNADO IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND.

LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ATTM EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL TX
NNE INTO ERN OK/SE KS/SW MO/WRN AR. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...BOTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT...THROUGH THE
AFTN AS DCVA AND MODEST SFC HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION  /REF
MCD 392/. STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING /30-40 KT/
SWLY DEEP SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SVR HAIL AND WIND. A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN FAR ERN OK AND AR LATER
TODAY...WHERE WIND PROFILES SHOULD EXHIBIT THE MAXIMUM DEEP VEERING
AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S F.

FARTHER E...OTHER TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM/INTENSIFY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS NOW OVER WRN AR. STRONG SFC
HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS AXIS OVER SE MO...ERN AR...AND NRN
LA EWD INTO WRN KY...WRN TN...AND NRN MS THROUGH THE AFTN...WHERE
/ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY INTO TNGT/ VEERING AND STRENGTHENING 850 MB
WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE MOISTURE INFLOW ACROSS REGION.
COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR /500 MB FLOW INCREASING TO AOA
50 KTS/...SETUP COULD YIELD A SIZABLE N-S SQLN. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
AND SUSTAINED CIRCULATIONS IN THE LINE COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
REACH AS FAR E AS NW AL...MIDDLE TN...AND CNTRL KY EARLY FRI.

..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 04/24/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 241631
SWODY1
SPC AC 241630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX ENE INTO THE
LWR OH...LWR TN...AND LWR MS VLYS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING EAST INTO PARTS OF THE
LOWER OHIO...LOWER TENNESSEE...AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
PROGRESSIVE...MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE LWR
48 THROUGH FRI...DOWNSTREAM FROM BROAD...AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE NE
PACIFIC. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSED THE SWRN U.S. YESTERDAY IS
NOW OVER NW OK. THE COMPACT...FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE
GENERALLY ENE INTO MO/NRN AR THIS EVE...AND INTO IND/CNTRL KY EARLY
FRI...AS IT ASSUMES A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT.

ELONGATED SFC LOW NOW OVER ERN KS/NE OK...LARGELY AN EWD-DISPLACED
LEE TROUGH...SHOULD CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVER CNTRL MO LATER
TODAY...AND OVER CNTRL PORTIONS OF IL AND IND TNGT/EARLY FRI...AS
UPR VORT OVERTAKES THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TRAILING SW INTO E TX. THE COLD FRONT...AND STRENGTHENING CONFLUENCE
AXES TO ITS EAST...WILL SERVE TO FOCUS LOW-LVL UPLIFT AND POTENTIAL
SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT IN MOISTENING LOW-LVL
ENVIRONMENT OVER SRN MO...AR...AND PERHAPS NE TX EWD INTO PARTS OF
THE LWR OH...LWR TN...AND LWR MS VLYS.

...OZARKS/ARKLATEX EWD INTO THE LWR OH...LWR TN...AND LWR MS VLYS
TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
A CONCENTRATED BAND OF STRONG DCVA/LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL TRACK E
ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND MO TODAY...AND THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS TNGT...
AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE OK UPR VORT. AT THE SAME TIME...ASSOCIATED BAND
OF 40-60 KT 700-500 MB FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...CREATING A
WIND ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SVR STORMS/SUPERCELLS. MOISTURE
INITIALLY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ESPECIALLY E OF THE
OZARKS/OUACHITAS. BUT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE NWD THROUGH THE LWR MS
VLY LATER TODAY INTO TNGT...AND LIKELY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
SVR STORMS...ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD YIELD A TORNADO IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND.

LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ATTM EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL TX
NNE INTO ERN OK/SE KS/SW MO/WRN AR. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...BOTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT...THROUGH THE
AFTN AS DCVA AND MODEST SFC HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION  /REF
MCD 392/. STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING /30-40 KT/
SWLY DEEP SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SVR HAIL AND WIND. A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN FAR ERN OK AND AR LATER
TODAY...WHERE WIND PROFILES SHOULD EXHIBIT THE MAXIMUM DEEP VEERING
AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S F.

FARTHER E...OTHER TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM/INTENSIFY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS NOW OVER WRN AR. STRONG SFC
HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS AXIS OVER SE MO...ERN AR...AND NRN
LA EWD INTO WRN KY...WRN TN...AND NRN MS THROUGH THE AFTN...WHERE
/ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY INTO TNGT/ VEERING AND STRENGTHENING 850 MB
WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE MOISTURE INFLOW ACROSS REGION.
COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR /500 MB FLOW INCREASING TO AOA
50 KTS/...SETUP COULD YIELD A SIZABLE N-S SQLN. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
AND SUSTAINED CIRCULATIONS IN THE LINE COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
REACH AS FAR E AS NW AL...MIDDLE TN...AND CNTRL KY EARLY FRI.

..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 04/24/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 241629
SWODY1
SPC AC 241628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX ENE INTO THE
LWR OH...LWR TN...AND LWR MS VLYS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING EAST INTO PARTS OF THE
LOWER OHIO...LOWER TENNESSEE...AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
PROGRESSIVE...MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE LWR
48 THROUGH FRI...DOWNSTREAM FROM BROAD...AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE NE
PACIFIC. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSED THE SWRN U.S. YESTERDAY IS
NOW OVER NW OK. THE COMPACT...FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE
GENERALLY ENE INTO MO/NRN AR THIS EVE...AND INTO IND/CNTRL KY EARLY
FRI...AS IT ASSUMES A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT.

ELONGATED SFC LOW NOW OVER ERN KS/NE OK...LARGELY AN EWD-DISPLACED
LEE TROUGH...SHOULD CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVER CNTRL MO LATER
TODAY...AND OVER CNTRL PORTIONS OF IL AND IND TNGT/EARLY FRI...AS
UPR VORT OVERTAKES THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TRAILING SW INTO E TX. THE COLD FRONT...AND STRENGTHENING CONFLUENCE
AXES TO ITS EAST...WILL SERVE TO FOCUS LOW-LVL UPLIFT AND POTENTIAL
SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT IN MOISTENING LOW-LVL
ENVIRONMENT OVER SRN MO...AR...AND PERHAPS NE TX EWD INTO PARTS OF
THE LWR OH...LWR TN...AND LWR MS VLYS.

...OZARKS/ARKLATEX EWD INTO THE LWR OH...LWR TN...AND LWR MS VLYS
TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
A CONCENTRATED BAND OF STRONG DCVA/LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL TRACK E
ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND MO TODAY...AND THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS TNGT...
AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE OK UPR VORT. AT THE SAME TIME...ASSOCIATED BAND
OF 40-60 KT 700-500 MB FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...CREATING A
WIND ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SVR STORMS/SUPERCELLS. MOISTURE
INITIALLY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ESPECIALLY E OF THE
OZARKS/OUACHITAS. BUT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE NWD THROUGH THE LWR MS
VLY LATER TODAY INTO TNGT...AND LIKELY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
SVR STORMS...ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD YIELD A TORNADO IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND.

LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ATTM EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL TX
NNE INTO ERN OK/SE KS/SW MO/WRN AR. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...BOTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT...THROUGH THE
AFTN AS DCVA AND MODEST SFC HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION  /REF
MCD 392/. STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING /30-40 KT/
SWLY DEEP SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SVR HAIL AND WIND. A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN FAR ERN OK AND AR LATER
TODAY...WHERE WIND PROFILES SHOULD EXHIBIT THE MAXIMUM DEEP VEERING
AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S F.

FARTHER E...OTHER TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM/INTENSIFY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS NOW OVER WRN AR. STRONG SFC
HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS AXIS OVER SE MO...ERN AR...AND NRN
LA EWD INTO WRN KY...WRN TN...AND NRN MS THROUGH THE AFTN...WHERE
/ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY INTO TNGT/ VEERING AND STRENGTHENING 850 MB
WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE MOISTURE INFLOW ACROSS REGION.
COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR /500 MB FLOW INCREASING TO AOA
50 KTS/...SETUP COULD YIELD A SIZABLE N-S SQLN. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
AND SUSTAINED CIRCULATIONS IN THE LINE COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
REACH AS FAR E AS NW AR...MIDDLE TN...AND CNTRL KY EARLY FRI.

..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 04/24/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 241629
SWODY1
SPC AC 241628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX ENE INTO THE
LWR OH...LWR TN...AND LWR MS VLYS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING EAST INTO PARTS OF THE
LOWER OHIO...LOWER TENNESSEE...AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
PROGRESSIVE...MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE LWR
48 THROUGH FRI...DOWNSTREAM FROM BROAD...AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE NE
PACIFIC. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSED THE SWRN U.S. YESTERDAY IS
NOW OVER NW OK. THE COMPACT...FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE
GENERALLY ENE INTO MO/NRN AR THIS EVE...AND INTO IND/CNTRL KY EARLY
FRI...AS IT ASSUMES A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT.

ELONGATED SFC LOW NOW OVER ERN KS/NE OK...LARGELY AN EWD-DISPLACED
LEE TROUGH...SHOULD CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVER CNTRL MO LATER
TODAY...AND OVER CNTRL PORTIONS OF IL AND IND TNGT/EARLY FRI...AS
UPR VORT OVERTAKES THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TRAILING SW INTO E TX. THE COLD FRONT...AND STRENGTHENING CONFLUENCE
AXES TO ITS EAST...WILL SERVE TO FOCUS LOW-LVL UPLIFT AND POTENTIAL
SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT IN MOISTENING LOW-LVL
ENVIRONMENT OVER SRN MO...AR...AND PERHAPS NE TX EWD INTO PARTS OF
THE LWR OH...LWR TN...AND LWR MS VLYS.

...OZARKS/ARKLATEX EWD INTO THE LWR OH...LWR TN...AND LWR MS VLYS
TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
A CONCENTRATED BAND OF STRONG DCVA/LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL TRACK E
ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND MO TODAY...AND THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS TNGT...
AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE OK UPR VORT. AT THE SAME TIME...ASSOCIATED BAND
OF 40-60 KT 700-500 MB FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...CREATING A
WIND ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SVR STORMS/SUPERCELLS. MOISTURE
INITIALLY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ESPECIALLY E OF THE
OZARKS/OUACHITAS. BUT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE NWD THROUGH THE LWR MS
VLY LATER TODAY INTO TNGT...AND LIKELY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
SVR STORMS...ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD YIELD A TORNADO IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND.

LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ATTM EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL TX
NNE INTO ERN OK/SE KS/SW MO/WRN AR. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...BOTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT...THROUGH THE
AFTN AS DCVA AND MODEST SFC HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION  /REF
MCD 392/. STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING /30-40 KT/
SWLY DEEP SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SVR HAIL AND WIND. A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN FAR ERN OK AND AR LATER
TODAY...WHERE WIND PROFILES SHOULD EXHIBIT THE MAXIMUM DEEP VEERING
AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S F.

FARTHER E...OTHER TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM/INTENSIFY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS NOW OVER WRN AR. STRONG SFC
HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS AXIS OVER SE MO...ERN AR...AND NRN
LA EWD INTO WRN KY...WRN TN...AND NRN MS THROUGH THE AFTN...WHERE
/ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY INTO TNGT/ VEERING AND STRENGTHENING 850 MB
WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE MOISTURE INFLOW ACROSS REGION.
COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR /500 MB FLOW INCREASING TO AOA
50 KTS/...SETUP COULD YIELD A SIZABLE N-S SQLN. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
AND SUSTAINED CIRCULATIONS IN THE LINE COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE
TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
REACH AS FAR E AS NW AR...MIDDLE TN...AND CNTRL KY EARLY FRI.

..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 04/24/2014





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241526
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241525
OKZ000-KSZ000-241730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0392
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241525Z - 241730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE
OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS DEEPENING ALONG A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM ELONGATED SFC LOW PRESSURE IN S-CNTRL/ERN KS INTO CNTRL OK.
MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z LAMONT OK RAOB TO ACCOUNT FOR PRE-FRONTAL
SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S AMIDST LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS SUGGEST
MODERATE BUOYANCY AIDED BY H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5-9.0 C/KM.
CONTINUED PRE-FRONTAL DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE TO BOOST
BUOYANCY. AND...AS ASCENT PRECEDING A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL PV MAX
CROSSING KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERTAKES THE
PRE-FRONTAL BUOYANCY...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WITHIN THE EWD-ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE TULSA VWP INDICATES 50-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS CONTRIBUTING
TO SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SOME SVR-HAIL POTENTIAL. DESPITE AT
LEAST MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A WEAKNESS IN THE 2-3-KM FLOW MAY
PROVE DELETERIOUS FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF MORE SUSTAINED/DISCRETE
UPDRAFTS. UNTIL CONSOLIDATION OF THE SFC CYCLONE OCCURS...CONFIDENCE
IN GREATER SVR COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY TOO LIMITED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37729615 38119520 37299487 36339505 35669546 35469626
            35879684 37729615





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241526
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241525
OKZ000-KSZ000-241730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0392
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241525Z - 241730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE
OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS DEEPENING ALONG A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM ELONGATED SFC LOW PRESSURE IN S-CNTRL/ERN KS INTO CNTRL OK.
MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z LAMONT OK RAOB TO ACCOUNT FOR PRE-FRONTAL
SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S AMIDST LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS SUGGEST
MODERATE BUOYANCY AIDED BY H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5-9.0 C/KM.
CONTINUED PRE-FRONTAL DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE TO BOOST
BUOYANCY. AND...AS ASCENT PRECEDING A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL PV MAX
CROSSING KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERTAKES THE
PRE-FRONTAL BUOYANCY...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WITHIN THE EWD-ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE TULSA VWP INDICATES 50-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS CONTRIBUTING
TO SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SOME SVR-HAIL POTENTIAL. DESPITE AT
LEAST MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A WEAKNESS IN THE 2-3-KM FLOW MAY
PROVE DELETERIOUS FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF MORE SUSTAINED/DISCRETE
UPDRAFTS. UNTIL CONSOLIDATION OF THE SFC CYCLONE OCCURS...CONFIDENCE
IN GREATER SVR COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY TOO LIMITED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37729615 38119520 37299487 36339505 35669546 35469626
            35879684 37729615





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241526
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241525
OKZ000-KSZ000-241730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0392
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241525Z - 241730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE
OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS DEEPENING ALONG A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM ELONGATED SFC LOW PRESSURE IN S-CNTRL/ERN KS INTO CNTRL OK.
MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z LAMONT OK RAOB TO ACCOUNT FOR PRE-FRONTAL
SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S AMIDST LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS SUGGEST
MODERATE BUOYANCY AIDED BY H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5-9.0 C/KM.
CONTINUED PRE-FRONTAL DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE TO BOOST
BUOYANCY. AND...AS ASCENT PRECEDING A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL PV MAX
CROSSING KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERTAKES THE
PRE-FRONTAL BUOYANCY...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WITHIN THE EWD-ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE TULSA VWP INDICATES 50-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS CONTRIBUTING
TO SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SOME SVR-HAIL POTENTIAL. DESPITE AT
LEAST MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A WEAKNESS IN THE 2-3-KM FLOW MAY
PROVE DELETERIOUS FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF MORE SUSTAINED/DISCRETE
UPDRAFTS. UNTIL CONSOLIDATION OF THE SFC CYCLONE OCCURS...CONFIDENCE
IN GREATER SVR COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY TOO LIMITED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37729615 38119520 37299487 36339505 35669546 35469626
            35879684 37729615






000
ACUS01 KWNS 241248
SWODY1
SPC AC 241246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MID MS VALLEY AND
MID-SOUTH REGION TO ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY
EVENING.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY
OVER CONUS.  MAIN CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE WILL BE STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INITIALLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.  THIS PERTURBATION
SHOULD REACH WRN PORTIONS MO/AR BY 00Z.  TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS
INDIANA...CENTRAL KY AND MID TN TO NRN AL BY 12Z.

RELATED SFC CYCLONE SHOULD EVOLVE FROM SERIES OF WEAK LOWS NOW
LOCATED ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SWRN IA TO NRN
OK...CONSOLIDATING/DEEPENING BY 00Z WHILE REACHING E-CENTRAL
MO...THEN MOVING TO INDIANA AROUND END OF PERIOD.  COLD FRONT -- NOW
OVER WRN OK AND ARCHING SWWD AND WWD ACROSS AREA BETWEEN LBB-MAF --
SHOULD REACH S-CENTRAL MO...SWRN AR...E-CENTRAL TX AND S-CENTRAL TX
BY 00Z...THEN BY 12Z...SRN INDIANA...NWRN AL...SERN LA AND NWRN
GULF.  SEPARATE/PREFRONTAL/LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT IN
COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY AND SOME SFC DATA FROM PERMIAN BASIN OF W TX
NEWD ACROSS NWRN FRINGES OF DFW METROPLEX TO S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL
OK AND ERN KS...MOVING SEWD 25-30 KT OVER TX AND EWD AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS OVER OK/KS.

...MID MS VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH REGION TO ARKLATEX...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER OUTLOOK AREA THIS PERIOD
ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...WITH MAJORITY OF SVR PROBABLE
THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING AS BANDS OF TSTMS SHIFT EWD ACROSS
OUTLOOK AREA.  DAMAGING TSTM WIND...SPORADIC LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

TSTM POTENTIAL BEGINS WITH ISOLATED/WEAK/ELEVATED ACTIVITY NOW OVER
WRN PORTIONS MO/AR...LIKELY FOLLOWED BY MORE SUBSTANTIAL LINE OF
TSTMS ALONG AFOREMENTIONED PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY.  LATTER ACTIVITY HAS
ACCESS TO GREATER MOISTURE AND LIFT THAN CONVECTION FARTHER E...AND
MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND AR.  PORTIONS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENCOUNTER FAVORABLY
DESTABILIZING SFC-BASED PARCELS FROM MIDDAY INTO AFTN...FARTHER E
NEAR MS RIVER.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN THAT
AND SFC COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG FRONT.

FIELD OF STG SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT/DCVA AHEAD OF MID-UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD OUTPACE SFC COLD FRONT TODAY AND BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER
ADJOINING WARM SECTOR DURING AFTN PHASE OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING.
THIS WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS SFC AND ALOFT...CONTERMINOUS WITH
FAVORABLE MOIST ADVECTION TO CONTRIBUTE FURTHER TO BUOYANCY.
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS FCST TO RETURN NEWD RAPIDLY ACROSS THIS
REGION TODAY...ULTIMATELY YIELDING PREFRONTAL SFC DEW POINTS 50S F
OVER PORTIONS MID-MS VALLEY REGION...IL...WRN KY AND MID TN...WITH
60S F POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF AR...SRN MO...WRN TN AND MS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUDS/CONVECTION MAY LIMIT PACE OF DIABATIC HEATING TODAY
OVER SRN MO AND AR...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CORRIDORS OF MLCAPE
1000-1500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE...DECREASING NWD ACROSS MO/IL.  BUOYANCY
MAY INCREASE SWD OVER E TX AND LA...HOWEVER WEAKER LIFT AND LESSER
DEEP SHEAR EACH CAST MORE UNCERTAINTY ONTO CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...DURATION AND ORGANIZATION S OF ARKLATEX AREA.
HENCE...GREATEST SVR PROBABILITIES ARE CONCENTRATED AS MAPPED.  SVR
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS TSTMS ENCOUNTER
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR OVER CENTRAL KY...MID
TN AND NRN AL.

..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 04/24/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 241248
SWODY1
SPC AC 241246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MID MS VALLEY AND
MID-SOUTH REGION TO ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY
EVENING.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY
OVER CONUS.  MAIN CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE WILL BE STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INITIALLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.  THIS PERTURBATION
SHOULD REACH WRN PORTIONS MO/AR BY 00Z.  TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS
INDIANA...CENTRAL KY AND MID TN TO NRN AL BY 12Z.

RELATED SFC CYCLONE SHOULD EVOLVE FROM SERIES OF WEAK LOWS NOW
LOCATED ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SWRN IA TO NRN
OK...CONSOLIDATING/DEEPENING BY 00Z WHILE REACHING E-CENTRAL
MO...THEN MOVING TO INDIANA AROUND END OF PERIOD.  COLD FRONT -- NOW
OVER WRN OK AND ARCHING SWWD AND WWD ACROSS AREA BETWEEN LBB-MAF --
SHOULD REACH S-CENTRAL MO...SWRN AR...E-CENTRAL TX AND S-CENTRAL TX
BY 00Z...THEN BY 12Z...SRN INDIANA...NWRN AL...SERN LA AND NWRN
GULF.  SEPARATE/PREFRONTAL/LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT IN
COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY AND SOME SFC DATA FROM PERMIAN BASIN OF W TX
NEWD ACROSS NWRN FRINGES OF DFW METROPLEX TO S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL
OK AND ERN KS...MOVING SEWD 25-30 KT OVER TX AND EWD AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS OVER OK/KS.

...MID MS VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH REGION TO ARKLATEX...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER OUTLOOK AREA THIS PERIOD
ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...WITH MAJORITY OF SVR PROBABLE
THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING AS BANDS OF TSTMS SHIFT EWD ACROSS
OUTLOOK AREA.  DAMAGING TSTM WIND...SPORADIC LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

TSTM POTENTIAL BEGINS WITH ISOLATED/WEAK/ELEVATED ACTIVITY NOW OVER
WRN PORTIONS MO/AR...LIKELY FOLLOWED BY MORE SUBSTANTIAL LINE OF
TSTMS ALONG AFOREMENTIONED PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY.  LATTER ACTIVITY HAS
ACCESS TO GREATER MOISTURE AND LIFT THAN CONVECTION FARTHER E...AND
MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND AR.  PORTIONS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENCOUNTER FAVORABLY
DESTABILIZING SFC-BASED PARCELS FROM MIDDAY INTO AFTN...FARTHER E
NEAR MS RIVER.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN THAT
AND SFC COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG FRONT.

FIELD OF STG SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT/DCVA AHEAD OF MID-UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD OUTPACE SFC COLD FRONT TODAY AND BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER
ADJOINING WARM SECTOR DURING AFTN PHASE OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING.
THIS WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS SFC AND ALOFT...CONTERMINOUS WITH
FAVORABLE MOIST ADVECTION TO CONTRIBUTE FURTHER TO BUOYANCY.
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS FCST TO RETURN NEWD RAPIDLY ACROSS THIS
REGION TODAY...ULTIMATELY YIELDING PREFRONTAL SFC DEW POINTS 50S F
OVER PORTIONS MID-MS VALLEY REGION...IL...WRN KY AND MID TN...WITH
60S F POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF AR...SRN MO...WRN TN AND MS.

ALTHOUGH CLOUDS/CONVECTION MAY LIMIT PACE OF DIABATIC HEATING TODAY
OVER SRN MO AND AR...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CORRIDORS OF MLCAPE
1000-1500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE...DECREASING NWD ACROSS MO/IL.  BUOYANCY
MAY INCREASE SWD OVER E TX AND LA...HOWEVER WEAKER LIFT AND LESSER
DEEP SHEAR EACH CAST MORE UNCERTAINTY ONTO CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE...DURATION AND ORGANIZATION S OF ARKLATEX AREA.
HENCE...GREATEST SVR PROBABILITIES ARE CONCENTRATED AS MAPPED.  SVR
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS TSTMS ENCOUNTER
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR OVER CENTRAL KY...MID
TN AND NRN AL.

..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 04/24/2014





000
ACUS03 KWNS 240713
SWODY3
SPC AC 240712

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
DRYLINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF WEST
TEXAS.  VERY LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES...CAN BE EXPECTED.

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALONG THE SWRN U.S./MEXICAN BORDER EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NM BY 27/00Z.  THIS FEATURE WILL THEN EJECT
INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
80KT+ AT 500MB.  INTENSE 12-HR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...APPROACHING
200M...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS CENTERED ON SERN CO.

AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES...SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN
OVER ERN CO AND A WELL-DEFINED LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWD INTO NRN
MEXICO.  INTENSE HEATING IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS TROUGH DURING THE
DAY AND A DRYLINE SHOULD MIX INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE BY 21Z.
WHILE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IT
APPEARS DRYLINE CONVECTION MAY INITIALLY INGEST 50S SFC DEW POINTS
AS TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 80S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 90F FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.  CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
BREACHED BY 21Z AND SCT SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY DIABATIC
HEATING AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SPEED MAX
WILL LAG THIS CORRIDOR OF INITIATION UNTIL WELL AFTER DARK.  DELAYED
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT MAY LIMIT THE NUMBER OF STORMS THAT ULTIMATELY
EVOLVE ALONG THE DRYLINE.

CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WILL DO SO ALONG
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 3000 J/KG SBCAPE AND SHOULD MATURE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE WEST.
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...ARE
EXPECTED.  AS TSTMS SHIFT EAST AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS SLIGHTLY
THERE MAY BE A PROPENSITY FOR CLOUD BASES TO LOWER AND TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF LOWER 60S SFC DEW POINTS.  AS A RESULT...TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY
DECOUPLES FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT
THERE MAY BE CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE AS IT BEGINS
TO SURGE ACROSS SWRN KS/WRN OK/NWRN TX.

SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE INCREASED ACROSS THIS REGION IF
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX/FORCING OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE AT A MORE
FAVORABLE TIME DIURNALLY.

..DARROW.. 04/24/2014





000
ACUS03 KWNS 240713
SWODY3
SPC AC 240712

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
DRYLINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF WEST
TEXAS.  VERY LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES...CAN BE EXPECTED.

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ALONG THE SWRN U.S./MEXICAN BORDER EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NM BY 27/00Z.  THIS FEATURE WILL THEN EJECT
INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
80KT+ AT 500MB.  INTENSE 12-HR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...APPROACHING
200M...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS CENTERED ON SERN CO.

AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES...SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN
OVER ERN CO AND A WELL-DEFINED LEE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWD INTO NRN
MEXICO.  INTENSE HEATING IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS TROUGH DURING THE
DAY AND A DRYLINE SHOULD MIX INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE BY 21Z.
WHILE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IT
APPEARS DRYLINE CONVECTION MAY INITIALLY INGEST 50S SFC DEW POINTS
AS TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 80S...TO PERHAPS NEAR 90F FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.  CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
BREACHED BY 21Z AND SCT SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY DIABATIC
HEATING AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SPEED MAX
WILL LAG THIS CORRIDOR OF INITIATION UNTIL WELL AFTER DARK.  DELAYED
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT MAY LIMIT THE NUMBER OF STORMS THAT ULTIMATELY
EVOLVE ALONG THE DRYLINE.

CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WILL DO SO ALONG
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 3000 J/KG SBCAPE AND SHOULD MATURE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE WEST.
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...ARE
EXPECTED.  AS TSTMS SHIFT EAST AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS SLIGHTLY
THERE MAY BE A PROPENSITY FOR CLOUD BASES TO LOWER AND TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF LOWER 60S SFC DEW POINTS.  AS A RESULT...TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY
DECOUPLES FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT
THERE MAY BE CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE AS IT BEGINS
TO SURGE ACROSS SWRN KS/WRN OK/NWRN TX.

SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE INCREASED ACROSS THIS REGION IF
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX/FORCING OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE AT A MORE
FAVORABLE TIME DIURNALLY.

..DARROW.. 04/24/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 240558
SWODY1
SPC AC 240556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE
LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEYS AND WRN TN VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY EVENING.  LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...SYNOPSIS...

A PROGRESSIVE LOW-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER NM
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE LOW-MIDDLE MS VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO
THE TN AND OH VALLEYS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH MO...IL AND
INDIANA...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AND LOWER MS VALLEYS AND TX. BY 12Z FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM A SFC LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY SWWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN...SRN LA
AND S TX.

...LOWER TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY AREAS...

MOIST AXIS WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL
ADVECT INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY WARM SECTOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
MIGRATORY 30-40 KT SSWLY LLJ. MEANWHILE...STEEP 7-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS. AS TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR 80F...MLCAPE SHOULD INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG FROM
NERN TX INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGIONS. A CORRIDOR OF FOCUSED
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH MO AND ARKANSAS ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS ZONE OF ASCENT INTERACTS WITH THE
DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
MO...ARKANSAS AND POSSIBLY NERN TX AND LA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY REGION.

DEEP-LAYER WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN IN VICINITY OF
THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION AS A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET WITHIN BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH OVERTAKES THE COLD FRONT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO AOA 40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING A
FEW SUPERCELLS...BUT ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A
DOMINANT LINEAR MODE WITH EMBEDDED ORGANIZED STRUCTURES AND CONTINUE
EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREATS...BUT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DOMINANT THREAT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
DAMAGING WIND DURING THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT.

..DIAL/LEITMAN.. 04/24/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 240558
SWODY1
SPC AC 240556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE
LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEYS AND WRN TN VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY EVENING.  LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...SYNOPSIS...

A PROGRESSIVE LOW-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THURSDAY. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST IS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER NM
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
EAST INTO THE LOW-MIDDLE MS VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INTO
THE TN AND OH VALLEYS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH MO...IL AND
INDIANA...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
AND LOWER MS VALLEYS AND TX. BY 12Z FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM A SFC LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY SWWD THROUGH MIDDLE TN...SRN LA
AND S TX.

...LOWER TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY AREAS...

MOIST AXIS WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL
ADVECT INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY WARM SECTOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
MIGRATORY 30-40 KT SSWLY LLJ. MEANWHILE...STEEP 7-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD EWD ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS. AS TEMPERATURES
WARM TO NEAR 80F...MLCAPE SHOULD INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG FROM
NERN TX INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGIONS. A CORRIDOR OF FOCUSED
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH MO AND ARKANSAS ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THIS ZONE OF ASCENT INTERACTS WITH THE
DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
MO...ARKANSAS AND POSSIBLY NERN TX AND LA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY REGION.

DEEP-LAYER WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN IN VICINITY OF
THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION AS A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET WITHIN BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH OVERTAKES THE COLD FRONT. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
INCREASING TO AOA 40 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING A
FEW SUPERCELLS...BUT ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO A
DOMINANT LINEAR MODE WITH EMBEDDED ORGANIZED STRUCTURES AND CONTINUE
EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREATS...BUT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DOMINANT THREAT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
DAMAGING WIND DURING THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT.

..DIAL/LEITMAN.. 04/24/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 240432
SWODY2
SPC AC 240431

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG...OR PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND ALONG A DRYLINE
OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

...SERN U.S...

SRN ROCKIES SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO THE OH/TN
VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY.  SRN END OF THIS DEAMPLIFYING FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
INTO SRN VA...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 17-18Z AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE EARLY 70S.  BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE BUT SBCAPE COULD
APPROACH 1000 J/KG ACROSS SC WHERE FEWER CLOUDS AND STRONGER HEATING
ARE EXPECTED.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35KT ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS COULD ATTAIN ORGANIZED STRUCTURES CAPABLE
OF GENERATING GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.


...SOUTHWEST TX...

SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE WEST TX DRYLINE FRIDAY.
AS LEE TROUGH INTENSIFIES BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX
SHOULD BEGIN RETURNING NWWD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU OF SWRN TX.  STRONG HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S WHICH SHOULD
WEAKEN INHIBITION BY 22Z.  LATEST THINKING IS ANY CONVECTION THAT
EVOLVES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVE VERY ISOLATED...THOUGH
GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS BETWEEN 22-03Z.

...WRN U.S...

STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD INTO THE LOWER CO
RIVER BASIN BY 26/12Z.  AS COLD TROUGH MOVES INLAND LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY DURING
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD ENHANCE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

..DARROW.. 04/24/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 240432
SWODY2
SPC AC 240431

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG...OR PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND ALONG A DRYLINE
OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

...SERN U.S...

SRN ROCKIES SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO THE OH/TN
VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY.  SRN END OF THIS DEAMPLIFYING FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
INTO SRN VA...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 17-18Z AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE EARLY 70S.  BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE BUT SBCAPE COULD
APPROACH 1000 J/KG ACROSS SC WHERE FEWER CLOUDS AND STRONGER HEATING
ARE EXPECTED.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35KT ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS COULD ATTAIN ORGANIZED STRUCTURES CAPABLE
OF GENERATING GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.


...SOUTHWEST TX...

SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE WEST TX DRYLINE FRIDAY.
AS LEE TROUGH INTENSIFIES BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER DEEP SOUTH TX
SHOULD BEGIN RETURNING NWWD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU OF SWRN TX.  STRONG HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S WHICH SHOULD
WEAKEN INHIBITION BY 22Z.  LATEST THINKING IS ANY CONVECTION THAT
EVOLVES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVE VERY ISOLATED...THOUGH
GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY ORGANIZED
STORMS BETWEEN 22-03Z.

...WRN U.S...

STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD INTO THE LOWER CO
RIVER BASIN BY 26/12Z.  AS COLD TROUGH MOVES INLAND LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY DURING
AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD ENHANCE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

..DARROW.. 04/24/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 240221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240221
TXZ000-OKZ000-240315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0391
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0921 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL AND SWRN OK/PART OF NW AND W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88...

VALID 240221Z - 240315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 03-04Z
ACROSS SWRN-WEST CENTRAL OK AND OVER NWRN TX AS CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL TX AND CENTRAL OK.  HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

NEW WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED INTO CENTRAL OK AND/OR NORTH
CENTRAL TX.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED JUST A COUPLE
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS REMAINING WITHIN AND JUST E OF WW 88 /IN YOUNG
AND STONEWALL COUNTIES TX AND KIOWA COUNTY OK/.  LIGHTNING
TRENDS...ASIDE FROM THESE STORMS...HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED.  THIS
COMBINED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
INDICATIVE OF AN OVERALL REDUCTION IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION IS STRENGTHENING PER THE LOSS OF DAY-TIME
HEATING AND LIKELY REDUCING THE INGEST OF SURFACE-BASED PARCELS TO
EXISTING UPDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS MAY SURVIVE FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS AS A 40-45 KT
SLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK PROVIDES AN
INFLUX OF GREATER INSTABILITY RESIDING OVER CENTRAL AND WRN NORTH
TX.  THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIMITED AS THE CAP
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

..PETERS.. 04/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   32140059 33200039 33519994 35059933 35909912 36059811
            35969792 33949780 33109787 32519833 32089921 32140059






000
ACUS11 KWNS 240221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240221
TXZ000-OKZ000-240315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0391
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0921 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL AND SWRN OK/PART OF NW AND W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88...

VALID 240221Z - 240315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 03-04Z
ACROSS SWRN-WEST CENTRAL OK AND OVER NWRN TX AS CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL TX AND CENTRAL OK.  HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

NEW WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED INTO CENTRAL OK AND/OR NORTH
CENTRAL TX.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED JUST A COUPLE
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS REMAINING WITHIN AND JUST E OF WW 88 /IN YOUNG
AND STONEWALL COUNTIES TX AND KIOWA COUNTY OK/.  LIGHTNING
TRENDS...ASIDE FROM THESE STORMS...HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED.  THIS
COMBINED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
INDICATIVE OF AN OVERALL REDUCTION IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION IS STRENGTHENING PER THE LOSS OF DAY-TIME
HEATING AND LIKELY REDUCING THE INGEST OF SURFACE-BASED PARCELS TO
EXISTING UPDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS MAY SURVIVE FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS AS A 40-45 KT
SLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK PROVIDES AN
INFLUX OF GREATER INSTABILITY RESIDING OVER CENTRAL AND WRN NORTH
TX.  THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIMITED AS THE CAP
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

..PETERS.. 04/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   32140059 33200039 33519994 35059933 35909912 36059811
            35969792 33949780 33109787 32519833 32089921 32140059





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240221
TXZ000-OKZ000-240315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0391
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0921 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL AND SWRN OK/PART OF NW AND W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88...

VALID 240221Z - 240315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG-SEVERE STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 03-04Z
ACROSS SWRN-WEST CENTRAL OK AND OVER NWRN TX AS CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL TX AND CENTRAL OK.  HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

NEW WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED INTO CENTRAL OK AND/OR NORTH
CENTRAL TX.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED JUST A COUPLE
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS REMAINING WITHIN AND JUST E OF WW 88 /IN YOUNG
AND STONEWALL COUNTIES TX AND KIOWA COUNTY OK/.  LIGHTNING
TRENDS...ASIDE FROM THESE STORMS...HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED.  THIS
COMBINED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
INDICATIVE OF AN OVERALL REDUCTION IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION IS STRENGTHENING PER THE LOSS OF DAY-TIME
HEATING AND LIKELY REDUCING THE INGEST OF SURFACE-BASED PARCELS TO
EXISTING UPDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED ONGOING
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS MAY SURVIVE FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS AS A 40-45 KT
SLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TX INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK PROVIDES AN
INFLUX OF GREATER INSTABILITY RESIDING OVER CENTRAL AND WRN NORTH
TX.  THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIMITED AS THE CAP
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

..PETERS.. 04/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   32140059 33200039 33519994 35059933 35909912 36059811
            35969792 33949780 33109787 32519833 32089921 32140059





000
ACUS01 KWNS 240112
SWODY1
SPC AC 240111

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0811 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

...ERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH CNTRL OK AND NWRN TO NCNTRL TX...

THIS EVENING A DRYLINE EXTENDS ACROSS WRN TX NEAR SANDERSON NWD TO
EAST OF AMARILLO TO NWRN KS WHERE IT INTERSECTS A COLD FRONT. A
RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE EXISTS EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. A CLUSTER OF STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS PERSIST FROM
NWRN TX INTO WRN OK...POSING A NEAR TERM THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY RESIDES WITHIN AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FROM CNTRL THROUGH ERN OK AND
NCNTRL THROUGH NERN TX. WITH WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS ONLY IN MID
50S...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT STABILIZATION WITH
ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WHICH WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. THIS SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL OK AND NCNTRL TX.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MOVING INTO NM AND THIS FEATURE WILL EMERGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
MERGER...PRIMARILY ACROSS CNTRL/NRN OK SUPPORTED BY DEEPER FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LLJ.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL.

...CNTRL KS THROUGH SRN NEB...

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PERSIST FROM NWRN KS THROUGH SERN
NEB...BUT ACTIVITY IS BEING UNDERCUT BY CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW AND THE
SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A NEAR TERM THREAT
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH 02-03Z...BUT
OVERALL THREAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
STORMS OVER SCNTRL KS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS THROUGH 03Z. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...AT LEAST
A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL INTERACT WITH THE SEWD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE AT LEAST A
MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ACROSS CNTRL KS.

..DIAL.. 04/24/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 240112
SWODY1
SPC AC 240111

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0811 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

...ERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH CNTRL OK AND NWRN TO NCNTRL TX...

THIS EVENING A DRYLINE EXTENDS ACROSS WRN TX NEAR SANDERSON NWD TO
EAST OF AMARILLO TO NWRN KS WHERE IT INTERSECTS A COLD FRONT. A
RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE EXISTS EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. A CLUSTER OF STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS PERSIST FROM
NWRN TX INTO WRN OK...POSING A NEAR TERM THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY RESIDES WITHIN AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FROM CNTRL THROUGH ERN OK AND
NCNTRL THROUGH NERN TX. WITH WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS ONLY IN MID
50S...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT STABILIZATION WITH
ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WHICH WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. THIS SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL OK AND NCNTRL TX.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MOVING INTO NM AND THIS FEATURE WILL EMERGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
MERGER...PRIMARILY ACROSS CNTRL/NRN OK SUPPORTED BY DEEPER FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LLJ.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL.

...CNTRL KS THROUGH SRN NEB...

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PERSIST FROM NWRN KS THROUGH SERN
NEB...BUT ACTIVITY IS BEING UNDERCUT BY CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW AND THE
SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A NEAR TERM THREAT
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH 02-03Z...BUT
OVERALL THREAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
STORMS OVER SCNTRL KS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS THROUGH 03Z. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...AT LEAST
A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL INTERACT WITH THE SEWD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE AT LEAST A
MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ACROSS CNTRL KS.

..DIAL.. 04/24/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 240101
SWODY1
SPC AC 240100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

...ERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH CNTRL OK AND NWRN TO NCNTRL TX...

THIS EVENING A DRYLINE EXTENDS ACROSS WRN TX NEAR SANDERSON NWD TO
EAST OF AMARILLO TO NWRN KS WHERE IT INTERSECTS A COLD FRONT. A
RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE EXISTS EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. A CLUSTER OF STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS PERSIST FROM
NWRN TX INTO WRN OK...POSING A NEAR TERM THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY RESIDES WITHIN AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FROM CNTRL THROUGH ERN OK AND
NCNTRL THROUGH NERN TX. WITH WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS ONLY IN MID
50S...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT STABILIZATION WITH
ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WHICH WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. THIS SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL OK AND NCNTRL TX.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MOVING INTO NM AND THIS FEATURE WILL EMERGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
MERGER...PRIMARILY ACROSS CNTRL/NRN OK SUPPORTED BY DEEPER FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LLJ.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL.

...CNTRL KS THROUGH SRN NEB...

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PERSIST FROM NWRN KS THROUGH SERN
NEB...BUT ACTIVITY IS BEING UNDERCUT BY CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW AND THE
SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A NEAR TERM THREAT
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH 02-03Z...BUT
OVERALL THREAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
STORMS OVER SCNTRL KS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS THROUGH 03Z. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...AT LEAST
A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL INTERACT WITH THE SEWD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE AT LEAST A
MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ACROSS CNTRL KS.

..DIAL.. 04/24/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 240101
SWODY1
SPC AC 240100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

...ERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH CNTRL OK AND NWRN TO NCNTRL TX...

THIS EVENING A DRYLINE EXTENDS ACROSS WRN TX NEAR SANDERSON NWD TO
EAST OF AMARILLO TO NWRN KS WHERE IT INTERSECTS A COLD FRONT. A
RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE EXISTS EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. A CLUSTER OF STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS PERSIST FROM
NWRN TX INTO WRN OK...POSING A NEAR TERM THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY RESIDES WITHIN AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FROM CNTRL THROUGH ERN OK AND
NCNTRL THROUGH NERN TX. WITH WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS ONLY IN MID
50S...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT STABILIZATION WITH
ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WHICH WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. THIS SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL OK AND NCNTRL TX.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MOVING INTO NM AND THIS FEATURE WILL EMERGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
MERGER...PRIMARILY ACROSS CNTRL/NRN OK SUPPORTED BY DEEPER FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LLJ.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL.

...CNTRL KS THROUGH SRN NEB...

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PERSIST FROM NWRN KS THROUGH SERN
NEB...BUT ACTIVITY IS BEING UNDERCUT BY CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW AND THE
SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A NEAR TERM THREAT
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH 02-03Z...BUT
OVERALL THREAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
STORMS OVER SCNTRL KS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS THROUGH 03Z. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...AT LEAST
A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL INTERACT WITH THE SEWD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE AT LEAST A
MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ACROSS CNTRL KS.

..DIAL.. 04/24/2014





000
ACUS11 KWNS 232354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232354
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-240130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF W/NW TX AND ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND
SOUTHWEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88...

VALID 232354Z - 240130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE  EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TX NWD THROUGH WRN OK...WITH A
SEPARATE AREA IN SOUTHWEST KS.  STORMS OVER WRN NORTH TX AND SWD
INTO W TX MAY TEND TO REMAIN MORE DISCRETE...WHILE ACTIVITY IN WRN
OK CONTINUES TO EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER.  AS STORMS SPREAD
EWD...ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OK AND NORTH CENTRAL TX MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED TO THIS WW...WHILE THE LACK OF NEW DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WRN PART OF THIS WATCH SUGGESTS COUNTIES CAN BE CANCELLED WITH
WWD EXTENT.

DISCUSSION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING ALONG AND EAST OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY DRY LINE FROM WRN/SWRN KS SWD THROUGH WRN OK AND ERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO WEST TX.  THE DRY LINE WAS ANALYZED FROM WEST CENTRAL
KS SWD TO JUST W OF LBL TO 35 E AMA TO 40 WSW CDS...AND THEN SEWD TO
40 WNW ABI BEFORE TRAILING SWWD INTO SOUTHWEST TX.  THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
35-45 KT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE STORMS THAT HAVE
MOVED INTO WRN OK HAD MERGED...WHILE STORMS IN WRN NORTH TX FROM
HARDEMAN AND BAYLOR COUNTIES TO ERN STONEWALL AND HASKELL COUNTIES
REMAINED MORE DISCRETE.  THE LATTER ACTIVITY WAS SOMEWHAT MORE
REMOVED FROM THE INFLUENCE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  HOWEVER...30-60 METER 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS.  THIS
ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE FORCING AND STRENGTHENING OF A SLY LLJ INTO
WRN OK AND ADJACENT SRN KS SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS THEY
ADVANCE EWD INTO THE MID-LATE EVENING.  THUS...EVENTUAL UPSCALE
GROWTH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS IN WRN NORTH TX...AS WELL...INTO
A SEPARATE CLUSTER.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.  A NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR STORMS TO REMAIN
SEVERE INTO CENTRAL OK IS THE EXISTENCE OF A CAP AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY PER THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING.

..PETERS.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...GLD...LUB...AMA...
MAF...

LAT...LON   32040104 32820094 34110101 36970108 38260113 38259834
            37009818 36189803 35059806 34029803 33499792 33349890
            32099915 32040104





000
ACUS11 KWNS 232354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232354
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-240130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF W/NW TX AND ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND
SOUTHWEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88...

VALID 232354Z - 240130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE  EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TX NWD THROUGH WRN OK...WITH A
SEPARATE AREA IN SOUTHWEST KS.  STORMS OVER WRN NORTH TX AND SWD
INTO W TX MAY TEND TO REMAIN MORE DISCRETE...WHILE ACTIVITY IN WRN
OK CONTINUES TO EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER.  AS STORMS SPREAD
EWD...ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OK AND NORTH CENTRAL TX MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED TO THIS WW...WHILE THE LACK OF NEW DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WRN PART OF THIS WATCH SUGGESTS COUNTIES CAN BE CANCELLED WITH
WWD EXTENT.

DISCUSSION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING ALONG AND EAST OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY DRY LINE FROM WRN/SWRN KS SWD THROUGH WRN OK AND ERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO WEST TX.  THE DRY LINE WAS ANALYZED FROM WEST CENTRAL
KS SWD TO JUST W OF LBL TO 35 E AMA TO 40 WSW CDS...AND THEN SEWD TO
40 WNW ABI BEFORE TRAILING SWWD INTO SOUTHWEST TX.  THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
35-45 KT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE STORMS THAT HAVE
MOVED INTO WRN OK HAD MERGED...WHILE STORMS IN WRN NORTH TX FROM
HARDEMAN AND BAYLOR COUNTIES TO ERN STONEWALL AND HASKELL COUNTIES
REMAINED MORE DISCRETE.  THE LATTER ACTIVITY WAS SOMEWHAT MORE
REMOVED FROM THE INFLUENCE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  HOWEVER...30-60 METER 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS.  THIS
ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE FORCING AND STRENGTHENING OF A SLY LLJ INTO
WRN OK AND ADJACENT SRN KS SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS THEY
ADVANCE EWD INTO THE MID-LATE EVENING.  THUS...EVENTUAL UPSCALE
GROWTH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS IN WRN NORTH TX...AS WELL...INTO
A SEPARATE CLUSTER.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.  A NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR STORMS TO REMAIN
SEVERE INTO CENTRAL OK IS THE EXISTENCE OF A CAP AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY PER THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING.

..PETERS.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...GLD...LUB...AMA...
MAF...

LAT...LON   32040104 32820094 34110101 36970108 38260113 38259834
            37009818 36189803 35059806 34029803 33499792 33349890
            32099915 32040104





000
ACUS11 KWNS 232354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232354
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-240130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF W/NW TX AND ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND
SOUTHWEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88...

VALID 232354Z - 240130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE  EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TX NWD THROUGH WRN OK...WITH A
SEPARATE AREA IN SOUTHWEST KS.  STORMS OVER WRN NORTH TX AND SWD
INTO W TX MAY TEND TO REMAIN MORE DISCRETE...WHILE ACTIVITY IN WRN
OK CONTINUES TO EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER.  AS STORMS SPREAD
EWD...ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OK AND NORTH CENTRAL TX MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED TO THIS WW...WHILE THE LACK OF NEW DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WRN PART OF THIS WATCH SUGGESTS COUNTIES CAN BE CANCELLED WITH
WWD EXTENT.

DISCUSSION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING ALONG AND EAST OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY DRY LINE FROM WRN/SWRN KS SWD THROUGH WRN OK AND ERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO WEST TX.  THE DRY LINE WAS ANALYZED FROM WEST CENTRAL
KS SWD TO JUST W OF LBL TO 35 E AMA TO 40 WSW CDS...AND THEN SEWD TO
40 WNW ABI BEFORE TRAILING SWWD INTO SOUTHWEST TX.  THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
35-45 KT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE STORMS THAT HAVE
MOVED INTO WRN OK HAD MERGED...WHILE STORMS IN WRN NORTH TX FROM
HARDEMAN AND BAYLOR COUNTIES TO ERN STONEWALL AND HASKELL COUNTIES
REMAINED MORE DISCRETE.  THE LATTER ACTIVITY WAS SOMEWHAT MORE
REMOVED FROM THE INFLUENCE OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  HOWEVER...30-60 METER 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS.  THIS
ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE FORCING AND STRENGTHENING OF A SLY LLJ INTO
WRN OK AND ADJACENT SRN KS SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS THEY
ADVANCE EWD INTO THE MID-LATE EVENING.  THUS...EVENTUAL UPSCALE
GROWTH IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS IN WRN NORTH TX...AS WELL...INTO
A SEPARATE CLUSTER.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.  A NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR STORMS TO REMAIN
SEVERE INTO CENTRAL OK IS THE EXISTENCE OF A CAP AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY PER THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING.

..PETERS.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...GLD...LUB...AMA...
MAF...

LAT...LON   32040104 32820094 34110101 36970108 38260113 38259834
            37009818 36189803 35059806 34029803 33499792 33349890
            32099915 32040104






000
ACUS11 KWNS 232316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232316
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-240015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0389
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NW AND N-CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL AND
ERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 87...

VALID 232316Z - 240015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 87
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE STORMS TRACK E-NE...THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. A MARGINAL THREAT
MAY EXTEND JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WW 87 TOWARD THE MISSOURI
RIVER IN NE AND ERN NEB.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NW KS INTO CENTRAL NEB. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS DEEP LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW EJECTING ACROSS
WESTERN NEB OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS AND MAINTAIN SEVERE STORMS THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL
SUPPORT STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.

AS STORMS TRACK FURTHER EAST...INSTABILITY BECOMES QUITE LIMITED AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS IN ADDITION TO INCREASING INHIBITION DUE TO
DIURNAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS NE/ERN
NEBRASKA. A DOWNSTREAM WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOCAL EXTENSION IF NEEDED.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38690154 40020023 41029935 41899849 42379771 42599707
            42569637 42329597 41739595 40619660 38659836 38279870
            38260081 38240156 38690154






000
ACUS11 KWNS 232316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232316
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-240015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0389
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NW AND N-CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL AND
ERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 87...

VALID 232316Z - 240015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 87
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE STORMS TRACK E-NE...THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. A MARGINAL THREAT
MAY EXTEND JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WW 87 TOWARD THE MISSOURI
RIVER IN NE AND ERN NEB.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NW KS INTO CENTRAL NEB. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS DEEP LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW EJECTING ACROSS
WESTERN NEB OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS AND MAINTAIN SEVERE STORMS THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL
SUPPORT STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.

AS STORMS TRACK FURTHER EAST...INSTABILITY BECOMES QUITE LIMITED AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS IN ADDITION TO INCREASING INHIBITION DUE TO
DIURNAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS NE/ERN
NEBRASKA. A DOWNSTREAM WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOCAL EXTENSION IF NEEDED.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38690154 40020023 41029935 41899849 42379771 42599707
            42569637 42329597 41739595 40619660 38659836 38279870
            38260081 38240156 38690154





000
ACUS11 KWNS 232316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232316
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-240015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0389
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NW AND N-CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL AND
ERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 87...

VALID 232316Z - 240015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 87
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE STORMS TRACK E-NE...THE MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. A MARGINAL THREAT
MAY EXTEND JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF WW 87 TOWARD THE MISSOURI
RIVER IN NE AND ERN NEB.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WERE BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NW KS INTO CENTRAL NEB. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS DEEP LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW EJECTING ACROSS
WESTERN NEB OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS AND MAINTAIN SEVERE STORMS THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL
SUPPORT STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.

AS STORMS TRACK FURTHER EAST...INSTABILITY BECOMES QUITE LIMITED AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS IN ADDITION TO INCREASING INHIBITION DUE TO
DIURNAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS NE/ERN
NEBRASKA. A DOWNSTREAM WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOCAL EXTENSION IF NEEDED.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38690154 40020023 41029935 41899849 42379771 42599707
            42569637 42329597 41739595 40619660 38659836 38279870
            38260081 38240156 38690154





000
ACUS11 KWNS 232054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232054
TXZ000-232300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0388
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST TX INCLUDING THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE VICINITY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 232054Z - 232300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST TX INCLUDING
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE VICINITY. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...CU FIELD CONTINUES TO INCREASE/GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHWEST TX IN AREAS NEAR AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A SHARPENING DRY LINE...WHILE SEVERAL TSTMS
HAVE ALSO INCREASED/MOVED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER/DEL RIO VICINITY AS OF 2045Z. AIDED BY WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATION WITH A FOUR CORNERS AREA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING/DEPTH WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER
UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS INITIALLY MODEST /30 KT/ IN
MOST AREAS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO EARLY EVENING AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT INCREASE. SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
STRONGER MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...EITHER VIA ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE DRY
LINE AND/OR STORMS CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE VICINITY POTENTIALLY AS A
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29980211 31300183 32010130 32300012 31939937 31489942
            29240001 28360025 29490147 29980211





000
ACUS11 KWNS 232054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232054
TXZ000-232300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0388
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST TX INCLUDING THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE VICINITY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 232054Z - 232300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST TX INCLUDING
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE VICINITY. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...CU FIELD CONTINUES TO INCREASE/GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHWEST TX IN AREAS NEAR AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A SHARPENING DRY LINE...WHILE SEVERAL TSTMS
HAVE ALSO INCREASED/MOVED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER/DEL RIO VICINITY AS OF 2045Z. AIDED BY WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATION WITH A FOUR CORNERS AREA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING/DEPTH WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER
UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS INITIALLY MODEST /30 KT/ IN
MOST AREAS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO EARLY EVENING AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT INCREASE. SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
STRONGER MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...EITHER VIA ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE DRY
LINE AND/OR STORMS CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE VICINITY POTENTIALLY AS A
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29980211 31300183 32010130 32300012 31939937 31489942
            29240001 28360025 29490147 29980211






000
ACUS11 KWNS 232054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232054
TXZ000-232300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0388
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST TX INCLUDING THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE VICINITY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 232054Z - 232300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST TX INCLUDING
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE VICINITY. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...CU FIELD CONTINUES TO INCREASE/GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHWEST TX IN AREAS NEAR AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A SHARPENING DRY LINE...WHILE SEVERAL TSTMS
HAVE ALSO INCREASED/MOVED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER/DEL RIO VICINITY AS OF 2045Z. AIDED BY WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATION WITH A FOUR CORNERS AREA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AMPLE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING/DEPTH WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER
UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS INITIALLY MODEST /30 KT/ IN
MOST AREAS...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO EARLY EVENING AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT INCREASE. SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
STRONGER MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...EITHER VIA ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE DRY
LINE AND/OR STORMS CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE VICINITY POTENTIALLY AS A
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTER.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29980211 31300183 32010130 32300012 31939937 31489942
            29240001 28360025 29490147 29980211





000
ACUS11 KWNS 232032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232032
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-232300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...FAR
NORTHWEST KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 232032Z - 232300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THAT A SFC BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OVER THE CO HIGH PLAINS...EXTENDING
EAST OF A 995-MB DENVER-AREA CYCLONE. DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY SFC
CONDITIONS N OF THIS BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
EXISTS -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 30S -- AMIDST A DEEP PBL
FOR VERY MARGINAL BUOYANCY. POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IS BEING
AUGMENTED BY DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES BETWEEN FORT
COLLINS AND AKRON. WITH THE APPROACH OF DCVA AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL LIFT AS IMPLIED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN ADDITIONAL
UPTICK IN CONVECTION COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 900
J/KG AMIDST 25-35F SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND 30-40 KT OF
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AND PERHAPS A MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
SPREAD E OF NERN CO INTO FAR SWRN NEB AND FAR NWRN KS BY EARLY
EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY AND THE PAUCITY OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER SVR RISK FROM
ENSUING.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39350213 39210355 39770456 40680426 41200307 41110197
            40730152 40070143 39350213






000
ACUS11 KWNS 232032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232032
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-232300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...FAR
NORTHWEST KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 232032Z - 232300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THAT A SFC BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OVER THE CO HIGH PLAINS...EXTENDING
EAST OF A 995-MB DENVER-AREA CYCLONE. DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY SFC
CONDITIONS N OF THIS BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
EXISTS -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 30S -- AMIDST A DEEP PBL
FOR VERY MARGINAL BUOYANCY. POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IS BEING
AUGMENTED BY DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES BETWEEN FORT
COLLINS AND AKRON. WITH THE APPROACH OF DCVA AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL LIFT AS IMPLIED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN ADDITIONAL
UPTICK IN CONVECTION COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 900
J/KG AMIDST 25-35F SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND 30-40 KT OF
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AND PERHAPS A MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
SPREAD E OF NERN CO INTO FAR SWRN NEB AND FAR NWRN KS BY EARLY
EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY AND THE PAUCITY OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER SVR RISK FROM
ENSUING.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39350213 39210355 39770456 40680426 41200307 41110197
            40730152 40070143 39350213





000
ACUS11 KWNS 232032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232032
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-232300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...FAR
NORTHWEST KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 232032Z - 232300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THAT A SFC BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OVER THE CO HIGH PLAINS...EXTENDING
EAST OF A 995-MB DENVER-AREA CYCLONE. DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY SFC
CONDITIONS N OF THIS BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
EXISTS -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 30S -- AMIDST A DEEP PBL
FOR VERY MARGINAL BUOYANCY. POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IS BEING
AUGMENTED BY DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES BETWEEN FORT
COLLINS AND AKRON. WITH THE APPROACH OF DCVA AND ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL LIFT AS IMPLIED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN ADDITIONAL
UPTICK IN CONVECTION COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 900
J/KG AMIDST 25-35F SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND 30-40 KT OF
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS AND PERHAPS A MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
SPREAD E OF NERN CO INTO FAR SWRN NEB AND FAR NWRN KS BY EARLY
EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY AND THE PAUCITY OF
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER SVR RISK FROM
ENSUING.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39350213 39210355 39770456 40680426 41200307 41110197
            40730152 40070143 39350213





000
ACUS01 KWNS 231954
SWODY1
SPC AC 231953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM SRN NEB
SWD INTO THE NWRN TX VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES
ALSO POSSIBLE.

...DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL CHANGES ARE REQUIRED THIS UPDATE AS PRIOR REASONING REMAINS
VALID.  STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH HAIL/WIND RISK ANTICIPATED.  TORNADO
RISK -- WHILE LIMITED OVERALL GIVEN A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER --
WOULD APPEAR TO BE GREATEST OVER THE SWRN OK/WRN N TX VICINITY VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO RECENTLY
ISSUED SWOMCD NUMBERS 385 AND 386.

..GOSS.. 04/23/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
PROGRESSIVE/MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS
PERIOD...WITH GRT BASIN TROUGH THE MAIN FACTOR AFFECTING SVR WEATHER
POTENTIAL INTO THU. THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE E TO THE HIGH PLNS BY
12Z THU AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE REACHES THE LWR OH VLY.

WITHIN THE TROUGH...MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE LWR CO
VLY SHOULD PIVOT E TO THE AZ-NM BORDER THIS EVE AND INTO W TX EARLY
THU. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAKER DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE OVER NM SHOULD
LIFT NE ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS TODAY AND INTO THE MID MO VLY
EARLY THU. IN THE NRN PART OF THE TROUGH...DISTURBANCE NOW OVER WY
WILL TRACK NE INTO ND BY EVE...ADVANCING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ESEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS. FARTHER S...LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE
SEGMENTS SHOULD MIX E INTO WRN PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN PLNS THIS
AFTN...BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT TNGT/EARLY THU.

BOTH THE CNTRL PLNS COLD FRONT AND THE DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH SEGMENTS
FARTHER S WILL PROMOTE STRONG TO SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT...BEGINNING
THIS AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO TNGT.

...CNTRL PLNS COLD FRONT THIS AFTN/EVE...
TSTMS SHOULD FORM ALONG COLD FRONT FROM S CNTRL/SE SD SWWD INTO NW
KS AS THE BOUNDARY ACCELERATES ESEWD. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WITH PW AROUND 1 INCH
AND AVERAGE SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 F. LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL...HOWEVER...BE FAIRLY STEEP...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 500 J/KG IN NERN NEB TO ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN NW KS. DEEP
SHEAR WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION...RANGING FROM 40 KT WSWLY IN KS
TO 50 KT SSWLY IN NRN NEB.

OVERALL SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND AND HAIL AS NRN STREAM
IMPULSE GLANCES REGION AND WEAKER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
SW. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MERGE INTO AN ESE-MOVING MCS IN SRN NEB/NRN
KS BY EARLY TNGT. A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DMGG WIND THREAT MAY
PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMBEDDED FORWARD-PROPAGATING
SEGMENTS/SMALL BOWS THROUGH EARLY THU.

...CNTRL/SRN PLNS LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE SHOULD CLEAR REGION ALONG
LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE SEGMENTS OVER WRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLNS BY EARLY AFTN...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING. AT THE SAME
TIME...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH ADVECTION. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPR 50S TO
AROUND 60 OVER W TX...WITH SOMEWHAT LWR VALUES EXTENDING NWD INTO
WRN KS. COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT MUCAPE TO
RANGE FROM 1000 J/KG IN KS TO 2000 J/KG IN TX.

SFC HEATING AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH SHOULD FOSTER SCTD STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG  LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SEGMENTS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AND CONTINUING
INTO TNGT FROM WRN KS TO W CNTRL TX. MORE WDLY SCTD ACTIVITY MAY
EXTEND S TO THE TX BIG BEND. COUPLED WITH 40-45 KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR
AND STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...SOME POSSIBLY VERY LARGE...AND LOCALLY
DMGG WIND. A RISK FOR TORNADOES ALSO MAY DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY THIS
EVE/EARLY TNGT OVER NW TX/SW OK...AS NOCTURNAL AND DYNAMIC
STRENGTHENING OF SLY LLJ ENLARGES HODOGRAPHS. THIS WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TNGT AS THE STORMS MERGE INTO
SHORT LINE/CLUSTERS...ALTHOUGH A LIMITED RISK FOR SVR WIND/HAIL MAY
PERSIST NEAR THE RED RVR THROUGH EARLY THU.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 231954
SWODY1
SPC AC 231953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM SRN NEB
SWD INTO THE NWRN TX VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES
ALSO POSSIBLE.

...DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL CHANGES ARE REQUIRED THIS UPDATE AS PRIOR REASONING REMAINS
VALID.  STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH HAIL/WIND RISK ANTICIPATED.  TORNADO
RISK -- WHILE LIMITED OVERALL GIVEN A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER --
WOULD APPEAR TO BE GREATEST OVER THE SWRN OK/WRN N TX VICINITY VERY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO RECENTLY
ISSUED SWOMCD NUMBERS 385 AND 386.

..GOSS.. 04/23/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
PROGRESSIVE/MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS
PERIOD...WITH GRT BASIN TROUGH THE MAIN FACTOR AFFECTING SVR WEATHER
POTENTIAL INTO THU. THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE E TO THE HIGH PLNS BY
12Z THU AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE REACHES THE LWR OH VLY.

WITHIN THE TROUGH...MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE LWR CO
VLY SHOULD PIVOT E TO THE AZ-NM BORDER THIS EVE AND INTO W TX EARLY
THU. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAKER DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE OVER NM SHOULD
LIFT NE ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS TODAY AND INTO THE MID MO VLY
EARLY THU. IN THE NRN PART OF THE TROUGH...DISTURBANCE NOW OVER WY
WILL TRACK NE INTO ND BY EVE...ADVANCING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ESEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS. FARTHER S...LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE
SEGMENTS SHOULD MIX E INTO WRN PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN PLNS THIS
AFTN...BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT TNGT/EARLY THU.

BOTH THE CNTRL PLNS COLD FRONT AND THE DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH SEGMENTS
FARTHER S WILL PROMOTE STRONG TO SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT...BEGINNING
THIS AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO TNGT.

...CNTRL PLNS COLD FRONT THIS AFTN/EVE...
TSTMS SHOULD FORM ALONG COLD FRONT FROM S CNTRL/SE SD SWWD INTO NW
KS AS THE BOUNDARY ACCELERATES ESEWD. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WITH PW AROUND 1 INCH
AND AVERAGE SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 F. LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL...HOWEVER...BE FAIRLY STEEP...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 500 J/KG IN NERN NEB TO ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN NW KS. DEEP
SHEAR WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION...RANGING FROM 40 KT WSWLY IN KS
TO 50 KT SSWLY IN NRN NEB.

OVERALL SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND AND HAIL AS NRN STREAM
IMPULSE GLANCES REGION AND WEAKER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
SW. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MERGE INTO AN ESE-MOVING MCS IN SRN NEB/NRN
KS BY EARLY TNGT. A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DMGG WIND THREAT MAY
PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMBEDDED FORWARD-PROPAGATING
SEGMENTS/SMALL BOWS THROUGH EARLY THU.

...CNTRL/SRN PLNS LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE SHOULD CLEAR REGION ALONG
LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE SEGMENTS OVER WRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLNS BY EARLY AFTN...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING. AT THE SAME
TIME...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH ADVECTION. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPR 50S TO
AROUND 60 OVER W TX...WITH SOMEWHAT LWR VALUES EXTENDING NWD INTO
WRN KS. COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT MUCAPE TO
RANGE FROM 1000 J/KG IN KS TO 2000 J/KG IN TX.

SFC HEATING AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH SHOULD FOSTER SCTD STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG  LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SEGMENTS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AND CONTINUING
INTO TNGT FROM WRN KS TO W CNTRL TX. MORE WDLY SCTD ACTIVITY MAY
EXTEND S TO THE TX BIG BEND. COUPLED WITH 40-45 KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR
AND STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...SOME POSSIBLY VERY LARGE...AND LOCALLY
DMGG WIND. A RISK FOR TORNADOES ALSO MAY DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY THIS
EVE/EARLY TNGT OVER NW TX/SW OK...AS NOCTURNAL AND DYNAMIC
STRENGTHENING OF SLY LLJ ENLARGES HODOGRAPHS. THIS WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TNGT AS THE STORMS MERGE INTO
SHORT LINE/CLUSTERS...ALTHOUGH A LIMITED RISK FOR SVR WIND/HAIL MAY
PERSIST NEAR THE RED RVR THROUGH EARLY THU.






000
ACUS11 KWNS 231937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231937
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-232130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0386
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES TO WESTERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231937Z - 232130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS
WESTERN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES TO WESTERN OK. LARGE HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE INITIAL/MOST PREVALENT SEVERE HAZARD. A WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON /LIKELY PRIOR TO 21Z/.

DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 995 MB ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CO
AS OF 19Z. SOUTH OF THIS CYCLONE...AND IN THE WAKE OF
EASTWARD-SPREADING MID-LEVEL CONVECTION/TSTMS...A NORTH-SOUTH
EXTENDING DRY LINE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHARPEN/MIX SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING SOUTHWEST KS AND
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
MODEST...BUT 50S/SOME LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

ADDITIONAL MIXING /ESPECIALLY AS SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S
F/ AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE NEAR THE DRY LINE...ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. AN ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
12Z WRF-NSSL...INDICATE THAT SUCH DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BY AROUND
21Z-22Z WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AND TX/OK PANHANDLES.

A SPECIAL 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM AMARILLO SAMPLED AN
INCREASINGLY MIXED/UNINHIBITED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEPENING
LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 1700 J/KG MUCAPE. LIKELY TIED
TO THE UPSTREAM FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A
STRENGTHENING/SLIGHT BACKING OF WINDS BETWEEN 3-7 KM AGL WAS NOTED
SINCE THIS MORNING /12Z/.

AS VERTICAL SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
DOMINANT SCENARIO. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME TORNADO
THREAT WILL EXIST AS WELL...MAINLY INTO EARLY EVENING AS LCL/S LOWER
AND LOW-LEVEL SRH BEGINS TO INCREASE.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34250156 35910140 38210105 38219945 37629913 36449893
            34939896 33569948 33500044 34250156





000
ACUS11 KWNS 231937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231937
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-232130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0386
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES TO WESTERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231937Z - 232130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS
WESTERN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES TO WESTERN OK. LARGE HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE INITIAL/MOST PREVALENT SEVERE HAZARD. A WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON /LIKELY PRIOR TO 21Z/.

DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 995 MB ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CO
AS OF 19Z. SOUTH OF THIS CYCLONE...AND IN THE WAKE OF
EASTWARD-SPREADING MID-LEVEL CONVECTION/TSTMS...A NORTH-SOUTH
EXTENDING DRY LINE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHARPEN/MIX SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING SOUTHWEST KS AND
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
MODEST...BUT 50S/SOME LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

ADDITIONAL MIXING /ESPECIALLY AS SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S
F/ AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE NEAR THE DRY LINE...ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. AN ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
12Z WRF-NSSL...INDICATE THAT SUCH DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BY AROUND
21Z-22Z WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AND TX/OK PANHANDLES.

A SPECIAL 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM AMARILLO SAMPLED AN
INCREASINGLY MIXED/UNINHIBITED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEPENING
LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 1700 J/KG MUCAPE. LIKELY TIED
TO THE UPSTREAM FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A
STRENGTHENING/SLIGHT BACKING OF WINDS BETWEEN 3-7 KM AGL WAS NOTED
SINCE THIS MORNING /12Z/.

AS VERTICAL SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
DOMINANT SCENARIO. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME TORNADO
THREAT WILL EXIST AS WELL...MAINLY INTO EARLY EVENING AS LCL/S LOWER
AND LOW-LEVEL SRH BEGINS TO INCREASE.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34250156 35910140 38210105 38219945 37629913 36449893
            34939896 33569948 33500044 34250156






000
ACUS11 KWNS 231937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231937
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-232130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0386
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES TO WESTERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231937Z - 232130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS
WESTERN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES TO WESTERN OK. LARGE HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE INITIAL/MOST PREVALENT SEVERE HAZARD. A WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON /LIKELY PRIOR TO 21Z/.

DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AROUND 995 MB ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CO
AS OF 19Z. SOUTH OF THIS CYCLONE...AND IN THE WAKE OF
EASTWARD-SPREADING MID-LEVEL CONVECTION/TSTMS...A NORTH-SOUTH
EXTENDING DRY LINE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHARPEN/MIX SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING SOUTHWEST KS AND
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
MODEST...BUT 50S/SOME LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

ADDITIONAL MIXING /ESPECIALLY AS SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S
F/ AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE NEAR THE DRY LINE...ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. AN ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
12Z WRF-NSSL...INDICATE THAT SUCH DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR BY AROUND
21Z-22Z WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AND TX/OK PANHANDLES.

A SPECIAL 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM AMARILLO SAMPLED AN
INCREASINGLY MIXED/UNINHIBITED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEPENING
LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 1700 J/KG MUCAPE. LIKELY TIED
TO THE UPSTREAM FOUR CORNERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A
STRENGTHENING/SLIGHT BACKING OF WINDS BETWEEN 3-7 KM AGL WAS NOTED
SINCE THIS MORNING /12Z/.

AS VERTICAL SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
DOMINANT SCENARIO. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME TORNADO
THREAT WILL EXIST AS WELL...MAINLY INTO EARLY EVENING AS LCL/S LOWER
AND LOW-LEVEL SRH BEGINS TO INCREASE.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   34250156 35910140 38210105 38219945 37629913 36449893
            34939896 33569948 33500044 34250156





000
ACUS11 KWNS 231934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231934
NEZ000-KSZ000-232200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231934Z - 232200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...REQUIRING THE
ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...ANTECEDENT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CONTINUES TO ERODE
AHEAD OF A FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM CNTRL NEB TO A LEE CYCLONE
IN E-CNTRL CO. MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS ACCOUNTING FOR PRE-FRONTAL SFC
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F AMIDST MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE AROUND 500-750 J/KG EXISTS. AS
RESIDUAL CAPPING IS BREACHED DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY NEAR ITS
INTERSECTION WITH A DRYLINE CURRENTLY MIXING INTO WRN KS -- W OF
WHICH VIS IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH-BASED CU DEVELOPMENT INTO E-CNTRL
CO. MODERATE DEEP SHEAR OFFERED BY 40-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS PER VWPS
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH STRONG COLD POOLS
ANTICIPATED OWING TO 25-35F SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. DMGG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE OF CONCERN ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD POOLS AMALGAMATE AND
FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EVOLVE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT SEVERE
HAIL...PARTICULARLY DURING THE INCIPIENT PHASES OF CONVECTION AND
WITH DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE MODES.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   42179848 41809727 40709723 38389866 38140042 38670100
            40050028 41029966 42009943 42179848






000
ACUS11 KWNS 231934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231934
NEZ000-KSZ000-232200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231934Z - 232200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...REQUIRING THE
ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...ANTECEDENT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CONTINUES TO ERODE
AHEAD OF A FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM CNTRL NEB TO A LEE CYCLONE
IN E-CNTRL CO. MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS ACCOUNTING FOR PRE-FRONTAL SFC
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F AMIDST MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE AROUND 500-750 J/KG EXISTS. AS
RESIDUAL CAPPING IS BREACHED DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY NEAR ITS
INTERSECTION WITH A DRYLINE CURRENTLY MIXING INTO WRN KS -- W OF
WHICH VIS IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH-BASED CU DEVELOPMENT INTO E-CNTRL
CO. MODERATE DEEP SHEAR OFFERED BY 40-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS PER VWPS
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH STRONG COLD POOLS
ANTICIPATED OWING TO 25-35F SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. DMGG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE OF CONCERN ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD POOLS AMALGAMATE AND
FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EVOLVE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT SEVERE
HAIL...PARTICULARLY DURING THE INCIPIENT PHASES OF CONVECTION AND
WITH DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE MODES.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   42179848 41809727 40709723 38389866 38140042 38670100
            40050028 41029966 42009943 42179848





000
ACUS11 KWNS 231934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231934
NEZ000-KSZ000-232200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231934Z - 232200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...REQUIRING THE
ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...ANTECEDENT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CONTINUES TO ERODE
AHEAD OF A FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM CNTRL NEB TO A LEE CYCLONE
IN E-CNTRL CO. MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS ACCOUNTING FOR PRE-FRONTAL SFC
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80F AMIDST MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE AROUND 500-750 J/KG EXISTS. AS
RESIDUAL CAPPING IS BREACHED DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY NEAR ITS
INTERSECTION WITH A DRYLINE CURRENTLY MIXING INTO WRN KS -- W OF
WHICH VIS IMAGERY INDICATES HIGH-BASED CU DEVELOPMENT INTO E-CNTRL
CO. MODERATE DEEP SHEAR OFFERED BY 40-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS PER VWPS
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH STRONG COLD POOLS
ANTICIPATED OWING TO 25-35F SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. DMGG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE OF CONCERN ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD POOLS AMALGAMATE AND
FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EVOLVE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT SEVERE
HAIL...PARTICULARLY DURING THE INCIPIENT PHASES OF CONVECTION AND
WITH DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE MODES.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 04/23/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   42179848 41809727 40709723 38389866 38140042 38670100
            40050028 41029966 42009943 42179848





000
ACUS02 KWNS 231727
SWODY2
SPC AC 231726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO...MUCH OF
AR AND INTO WRN TN...AND INTO NWRN MS AND NRN LA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND THEN
SPREAD EAST TOWARD WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI INTO
THE EVENING THURSDAY.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF PHASED PIECES
OF NRN- AND SRN-STREAM ENERGY -- WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS
PERIOD.  THE SRN FEATURE WITHIN THIS TROUGH IN PARTICULAR WILL BE A
FOCUS WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE/SEVERE FORECAST FOR THE DAY 2
PERIOD...AS IT SHIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND CROSSES THE LOWER MO/MID
MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
IA/MO REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE MIDWEST STATES
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  AS THIS OCCURS...A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS AND SEWD
ACROSS AR/TX/LA THROUGH SUNSET.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS A ZONE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- WITH INTENSITY/SEVERE RISK PEAKING
DIURNALLY ACROSS AR AND VICINITY.

...SERN MO/WRN TN SWWD INTO NRN LA...
A MOISTENING AIRMASS IS PROGGED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...AS SLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS ADVECT LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS
AR AND INTO SERN MO.  HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING IS FORECAST TO BE
HINDERED BY ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...WHICH
SHOULD BE SPREADING EWD TOWARD/INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA EARLY IN
THE PERIOD.  AS A RESULT...ONLY MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST
-- PARTICULARLY INTO CENTRAL AND NRN AR AND ADJACENT SERN MO WHERE
STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT /ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE UPPER VORT MAX/ IS
PROGGED TO EXIST.

THAT BEING SAID...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG/COMPACT JET STREAK IS SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE RISK DESPITE THE
ANTICIPATED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  THOUGH SHEAR WOULD
SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS...IT APPEARS THAT A LINEAR MODE WILL BE
FAVORED AND THUS DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK.
A TORNADO OR TWO...HOWEVER...CANNOT BE RULED OUT -- EITHER WITHIN
THE BROADER CONVECTIVE LINE OR WITH ANY ISOLATED STORM AHEAD OF THE
LINE.  SEVERE-SIZED HAIL WOULD APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
SRN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK...WHERE SOMEWHAT GREATER DESTABILIZATION
POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT.

GIVEN THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS ANTICIPATED...STORMS SHOULD SHOW A
FAIRLY STRONG DIURNAL PEAK IN INTENSITY...WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION
AND THUS DIMINISHING SEVERE RISK LIKELY BY EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES E OF THE MS VALLEY.

..GOSS.. 04/23/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 231727
SWODY2
SPC AC 231726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO...MUCH OF
AR AND INTO WRN TN...AND INTO NWRN MS AND NRN LA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND THEN
SPREAD EAST TOWARD WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI INTO
THE EVENING THURSDAY.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF PHASED PIECES
OF NRN- AND SRN-STREAM ENERGY -- WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS
PERIOD.  THE SRN FEATURE WITHIN THIS TROUGH IN PARTICULAR WILL BE A
FOCUS WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE/SEVERE FORECAST FOR THE DAY 2
PERIOD...AS IT SHIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND CROSSES THE LOWER MO/MID
MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
IA/MO REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE MIDWEST STATES
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  AS THIS OCCURS...A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS AND SEWD
ACROSS AR/TX/LA THROUGH SUNSET.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS A ZONE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- WITH INTENSITY/SEVERE RISK PEAKING
DIURNALLY ACROSS AR AND VICINITY.

...SERN MO/WRN TN SWWD INTO NRN LA...
A MOISTENING AIRMASS IS PROGGED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...AS SLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS ADVECT LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS
AR AND INTO SERN MO.  HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING IS FORECAST TO BE
HINDERED BY ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...WHICH
SHOULD BE SPREADING EWD TOWARD/INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA EARLY IN
THE PERIOD.  AS A RESULT...ONLY MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST
-- PARTICULARLY INTO CENTRAL AND NRN AR AND ADJACENT SERN MO WHERE
STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT /ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE UPPER VORT MAX/ IS
PROGGED TO EXIST.

THAT BEING SAID...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG/COMPACT JET STREAK IS SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE RISK DESPITE THE
ANTICIPATED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  THOUGH SHEAR WOULD
SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS...IT APPEARS THAT A LINEAR MODE WILL BE
FAVORED AND THUS DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK.
A TORNADO OR TWO...HOWEVER...CANNOT BE RULED OUT -- EITHER WITHIN
THE BROADER CONVECTIVE LINE OR WITH ANY ISOLATED STORM AHEAD OF THE
LINE.  SEVERE-SIZED HAIL WOULD APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
SRN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK...WHERE SOMEWHAT GREATER DESTABILIZATION
POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT.

GIVEN THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS ANTICIPATED...STORMS SHOULD SHOW A
FAIRLY STRONG DIURNAL PEAK IN INTENSITY...WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION
AND THUS DIMINISHING SEVERE RISK LIKELY BY EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES E OF THE MS VALLEY.

..GOSS.. 04/23/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 231628
SWODY1
SPC AC 231627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLNS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES
ALSO POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
PROGRESSIVE/MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS
PERIOD...WITH GRT BASIN TROUGH THE MAIN FACTOR AFFECTING SVR WEATHER
POTENTIAL INTO THU. THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE E TO THE HIGH PLNS BY
12Z THU AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE REACHES THE LWR OH VLY.

WITHIN THE TROUGH...MAIN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE LWR CO
VLY SHOULD PIVOT E TO THE AZ-NM BORDER THIS EVE AND INTO W TX EARLY
THU. AT THE SAME TIME...WEAKER DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE OVER NM SHOULD
LIFT NE ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS TODAY AND INTO THE MID MO VLY
EARLY THU. IN THE NRN PART OF THE TROUGH...DISTURBANCE NOW OVER WY
WILL TRACK NE INTO ND BY EVE...ADVANCING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ESEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS. FARTHER S...LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE
SEGMENTS SHOULD MIX E INTO WRN PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN PLNS THIS
AFTN...BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT TNGT/EARLY THU.

BOTH THE CNTRL PLNS COLD FRONT AND THE DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH SEGMENTS
FARTHER S WILL PROMOTE STRONG TO SVR STORM DEVELOPMENT...BEGINNING
THIS AFTN AND CONTINUING INTO TNGT.

...CNTRL PLNS COLD FRONT THIS AFTN/EVE...
TSTMS SHOULD FORM ALONG COLD FRONT FROM S CNTRL/SE SD SWWD INTO NW
KS AS THE BOUNDARY ACCELERATES ESEWD. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WITH PW AROUND 1 INCH
AND AVERAGE SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 F. LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
WILL...HOWEVER...BE FAIRLY STEEP...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 500 J/KG IN NERN NEB TO ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN NW KS. DEEP
SHEAR WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION...RANGING FROM 40 KT WSWLY IN KS
TO 50 KT SSWLY IN NRN NEB.

OVERALL SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND AND HAIL AS NRN STREAM
IMPULSE GLANCES REGION AND WEAKER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
SW. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MERGE INTO AN ESE-MOVING MCS IN SRN NEB/NRN
KS BY EARLY TNGT. A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DMGG WIND THREAT MAY
PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMBEDDED FORWARD-PROPAGATING
SEGMENTS/SMALL BOWS THROUGH EARLY THU.

...CNTRL/SRN PLNS LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE SHOULD CLEAR REGION ALONG
LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE SEGMENTS OVER WRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLNS BY EARLY AFTN...ALLOWING FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING. AT THE SAME
TIME...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH ADVECTION. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPR 50S TO
AROUND 60 OVER W TX...WITH SOMEWHAT LWR VALUES EXTENDING NWD INTO
WRN KS. COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT MUCAPE TO
RANGE FROM 1000 J/KG IN KS TO 2000 J/KG IN TX.

SFC HEATING AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH SHOULD FOSTER SCTD STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG  LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE SEGMENTS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AND CONTINUING
INTO TNGT FROM WRN KS TO W CNTRL TX. MORE WDLY SCTD ACTIVITY MAY
EXTEND S TO THE TX BIG BEND. COUPLED WITH 40-45 KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR
AND STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...SOME POSSIBLY VERY LARGE...AND LOCALLY
DMGG WIND. A RISK FOR TORNADOES ALSO MAY DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY THIS
EVE/EARLY TNGT OVER NW TX/SW OK...AS NOCTURNAL AND DYNAMIC
STRENGTHENING OF SLY LLJ ENLARGES HODOGRAPHS. THIS WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TNGT AS THE STORMS MERGE INTO
SHORT LINE/CLUSTERS...ALTHOUGH A LIMITED RISK FOR SVR WIND/HAIL MAY
PERSIST NEAR THE RED RVR THROUGH EARLY THU.

..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 04/23/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 231247
SWODY1
SPC AC 231246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS FCST ACROSS CONUS THIS
PERIOD...MAIN INFLUENCING FEATURE ALOFT FOR SVR RISK BEING
SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH NOW LOCATED FROM BC TO NRN ROCKIES...UT AND
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.  SERIES OF NRN-STREAM VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
TRAVERSE THAT PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LOCATED OVER NRN ROCKIES AND
NRN PLAINS...LEADING TO ITS NET EWD MOVEMENT TO SK...WRN DAKOTAS AND
WRN NEB BY END OF PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...BASAL VORTICITY LOBE NOW OVER
SRN SIERRAS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ESEWD AND INTENSIFY
TODAY...EXTENDING FROM SWRN CO TO AZ/NM BORDER BY 00Z.  BY 12Z THIS
PERTURBATION SHOULD REACH SWRN KS AND TX PANHANDLE...WITH ASSOCIATED
DCVA PLUME SPREADING OVER CENTRAL KS...CENTRAL/WRN K AND NW TX.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT ANALYZED AT 11Z OVER ERN WY WILL MOVE EWD AND
SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY...WHILE SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
ITS INTERSECTION WITH LEE TROUGH OVER ERN CO/EXTREME WRN KS.  BY
00Z...FRONT SHOULD ARC FROM NWRN ND ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND NWRN KS.
INITIALLY DIFFUSE DRYLINE SHOULD BECOME BETTER-DEFINED BY 00Z FROM
NRN COAHUILA NNEWD OVER ERN TX PANHANDLE THEN NWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL
KS.  COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE DRYLINE FROM N-S TONIGHT WHILE SFC
CYCLONE MOVES RAPIDLY NEWD TO IA.  BY 12Z...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM
IA LOW SWWD ACROSS ERN KS...SWRN KS AND SERN CORNER OF NM.

...SLGT RISK AREA...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN ALONG COLD
FRONT...SOME OF WHICH MAY ATTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES BEFORE
AGGREGATING INTO QUASI-LINEAR/FRONTALLY FORCED MODE.  THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE RATHER HIGH-BASED AND MAY BE PRONE TO
EARLY-STAGE OUTFLOW-DOMINANCE.  STILL...BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS SHOULD
OFFER RISK FOR SVR GUSTS AND HAIL INTO EVENING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS
OUTLOOK AREA...BEFORE MOVING EWD AND DIMINISHING.  AIR MASS N OF
ABOUT I-70 IS LIKELY TO STABILIZE DIABATICALLY FASTER THAN THAT
INFLUENCE CAN BE OFFSET BY THETAE ADVECTION.

FARTHER S...COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN FIRST 2-3
HOURS FOR DRYLINE-INITIATED CELLS FROM WRN KS TO NW TX...WITH
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS PROBABLE.  CHANCE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE CONTENT FOR SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING HAIL APPEARS
LARGEST IN ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND NW TX.  SOME INITIALLY
DRYLINE-FIRED CONVECTION MAY AGGREGATE INTO CLUSTERS THIS EVENING
AND MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OK OR N TX WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOWS AND
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.  WHERE ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS LAST INTO
EVENING...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER RAPIDLY ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS DUE TO
STRENGTHENING LLJ...CONCURRENT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING AND
RESULTANT ADVECTION-RELATED BOOST IN INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE THAT
LOWERS LCL.  TIME WINDOW NEAR SUNSET AND INTO TWILIGHT THEREFORE MAY
POSE SOME TORNADO RISK...WHERE TSTM MODES STILL ARE SUITABLE...AND
BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING PROHIBITIVELY STRENGTHENS SBCINH.

SUFFICIENT DIURNAL HEATING WILL OCCUR ON BOTH SIDE OF
DRYLINE...AIDING IN AFTN DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE PERSISTENT/ANTECEDENT
HIGH CLOUDS.  MEANWHILE...CORRIDOR OF RETURN-FLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL BE OFFSET BY AFTN VERTICAL MIXING SUCH THAT SFC DEW POINTS MAY
NOT RISE MUCH ABOVE CURRENT VALUES OVER MUCH OF NW TX...OK AND KS.
HOWEVER...AROUND 00Z AND INTO EVENING...60S F DEW POINTS MAY REACH
RED RIVER REGION WITH 50S INTO KS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES MAY
REACH 40-50 KT ACROSS PRE-DRYLINE/PREFRONTAL CORRIDOR BY 00Z.

...W-CENTRAL/SW TX...
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS CORRIDOR...INITIATED BOTH
INVOF DRYLINE AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN COAHUILA.  LATTER
CONVECTION MAY REACH ADJOINING PORTIONS TX RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEFORE
DISSIPATING.  ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SOME SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS BEING MAIN
CONCERNS...THOUGH POTENTIAL COVERAGE/DURATION APPEAR MORE LIMITED
THAN FARTHER N.  GREATEST POTENTIAL LONGEVITY MAY BE FOR CONVECTION
MOVING OFF SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE AND FOOTHILLS...GIVEN
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THIS AREA.

..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 04/23/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 231247
SWODY1
SPC AC 231246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS FCST ACROSS CONUS THIS
PERIOD...MAIN INFLUENCING FEATURE ALOFT FOR SVR RISK BEING
SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH NOW LOCATED FROM BC TO NRN ROCKIES...UT AND
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.  SERIES OF NRN-STREAM VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
TRAVERSE THAT PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LOCATED OVER NRN ROCKIES AND
NRN PLAINS...LEADING TO ITS NET EWD MOVEMENT TO SK...WRN DAKOTAS AND
WRN NEB BY END OF PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...BASAL VORTICITY LOBE NOW OVER
SRN SIERRAS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ESEWD AND INTENSIFY
TODAY...EXTENDING FROM SWRN CO TO AZ/NM BORDER BY 00Z.  BY 12Z THIS
PERTURBATION SHOULD REACH SWRN KS AND TX PANHANDLE...WITH ASSOCIATED
DCVA PLUME SPREADING OVER CENTRAL KS...CENTRAL/WRN K AND NW TX.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT ANALYZED AT 11Z OVER ERN WY WILL MOVE EWD AND
SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY...WHILE SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
ITS INTERSECTION WITH LEE TROUGH OVER ERN CO/EXTREME WRN KS.  BY
00Z...FRONT SHOULD ARC FROM NWRN ND ACROSS CENTRAL NEB AND NWRN KS.
INITIALLY DIFFUSE DRYLINE SHOULD BECOME BETTER-DEFINED BY 00Z FROM
NRN COAHUILA NNEWD OVER ERN TX PANHANDLE THEN NWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL
KS.  COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE DRYLINE FROM N-S TONIGHT WHILE SFC
CYCLONE MOVES RAPIDLY NEWD TO IA.  BY 12Z...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM
IA LOW SWWD ACROSS ERN KS...SWRN KS AND SERN CORNER OF NM.

...SLGT RISK AREA...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN ALONG COLD
FRONT...SOME OF WHICH MAY ATTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES BEFORE
AGGREGATING INTO QUASI-LINEAR/FRONTALLY FORCED MODE.  THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE RATHER HIGH-BASED AND MAY BE PRONE TO
EARLY-STAGE OUTFLOW-DOMINANCE.  STILL...BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS SHOULD
OFFER RISK FOR SVR GUSTS AND HAIL INTO EVENING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS
OUTLOOK AREA...BEFORE MOVING EWD AND DIMINISHING.  AIR MASS N OF
ABOUT I-70 IS LIKELY TO STABILIZE DIABATICALLY FASTER THAN THAT
INFLUENCE CAN BE OFFSET BY THETAE ADVECTION.

FARTHER S...COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED IN FIRST 2-3
HOURS FOR DRYLINE-INITIATED CELLS FROM WRN KS TO NW TX...WITH
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS PROBABLE.  CHANCE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE CONTENT FOR SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING HAIL APPEARS
LARGEST IN ERN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND NW TX.  SOME INITIALLY
DRYLINE-FIRED CONVECTION MAY AGGREGATE INTO CLUSTERS THIS EVENING
AND MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OK OR N TX WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOWS AND
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.  WHERE ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS LAST INTO
EVENING...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER RAPIDLY ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS DUE TO
STRENGTHENING LLJ...CONCURRENT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL MIXING AND
RESULTANT ADVECTION-RELATED BOOST IN INFLOW-LAYER MOISTURE THAT
LOWERS LCL.  TIME WINDOW NEAR SUNSET AND INTO TWILIGHT THEREFORE MAY
POSE SOME TORNADO RISK...WHERE TSTM MODES STILL ARE SUITABLE...AND
BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING PROHIBITIVELY STRENGTHENS SBCINH.

SUFFICIENT DIURNAL HEATING WILL OCCUR ON BOTH SIDE OF
DRYLINE...AIDING IN AFTN DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE PERSISTENT/ANTECEDENT
HIGH CLOUDS.  MEANWHILE...CORRIDOR OF RETURN-FLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL BE OFFSET BY AFTN VERTICAL MIXING SUCH THAT SFC DEW POINTS MAY
NOT RISE MUCH ABOVE CURRENT VALUES OVER MUCH OF NW TX...OK AND KS.
HOWEVER...AROUND 00Z AND INTO EVENING...60S F DEW POINTS MAY REACH
RED RIVER REGION WITH 50S INTO KS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES MAY
REACH 40-50 KT ACROSS PRE-DRYLINE/PREFRONTAL CORRIDOR BY 00Z.

...W-CENTRAL/SW TX...
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THIS CORRIDOR...INITIATED BOTH
INVOF DRYLINE AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN COAHUILA.  LATTER
CONVECTION MAY REACH ADJOINING PORTIONS TX RIO GRANDE VALLEY BEFORE
DISSIPATING.  ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SOME SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS BEING MAIN
CONCERNS...THOUGH POTENTIAL COVERAGE/DURATION APPEAR MORE LIMITED
THAN FARTHER N.  GREATEST POTENTIAL LONGEVITY MAY BE FOR CONVECTION
MOVING OFF SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE AND FOOTHILLS...GIVEN
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THIS AREA.

..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 04/23/2014





000
ACUS03 KWNS 230635
SWODY3
SPC AC 230634

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG...OR PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND ALONG A DRYLINE
OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

...SERN U.S...

SUBTLE BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  TIMING OF THIS FEATURE DOES
NOT CORRELATE WELL WITH DIURNAL HEATING BUT IT MAY PROVE ADEQUATE IN
GENERATING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINAS.  IF TIMING
OF SHORT WAVE IS TOO EARLY THEN STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING COULD
STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH FOR A FEW POST-SHORT WAVE TSTMS
WITHIN VEERED BUT MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE
5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR POOR TIMING OF SHORT WAVE AND
WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVELS.

...SRN PLAINS DRYLINE...

LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHARPENING ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTEROON AS TROUGHING ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
WRN U.S.  INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS FORECAST ACROSS WRN
TX/OK DURING THE DAY WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR THROUGH THE
80S TO PERHAPS NEAR 90F AND THIS SHOULD BE ADEQUATE IN REMOVING
EARLY-DAY INHIBITION.  ONE MAJOR CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE IS THE EXPECTED SHORT-WAVE RIDGING
FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IT/S NOT ENTIRELY
CLEAR HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE...WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT DURING THE 22Z-03Z TIME FRAME.  NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
ALLOWING A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO EVOLVE WITHIN AIRMASS
CHARACTERIZED BY 1500 J/KG SBCAPE BUT STRONGLY SHEARED...SFC-6KM
VALUES APPROACHING 50KT.  LOW SEVERE PROBS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/WIND.

..DARROW.. 04/23/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 230635
SWODY3
SPC AC 230634

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG...OR PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND ALONG A DRYLINE
OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

...SERN U.S...

SUBTLE BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  TIMING OF THIS FEATURE DOES
NOT CORRELATE WELL WITH DIURNAL HEATING BUT IT MAY PROVE ADEQUATE IN
GENERATING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINAS.  IF TIMING
OF SHORT WAVE IS TOO EARLY THEN STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING COULD
STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH FOR A FEW POST-SHORT WAVE TSTMS
WITHIN VEERED BUT MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE
5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR POOR TIMING OF SHORT WAVE AND
WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVELS.

...SRN PLAINS DRYLINE...

LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHARPENING ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTEROON AS TROUGHING ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
WRN U.S.  INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS FORECAST ACROSS WRN
TX/OK DURING THE DAY WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR THROUGH THE
80S TO PERHAPS NEAR 90F AND THIS SHOULD BE ADEQUATE IN REMOVING
EARLY-DAY INHIBITION.  ONE MAJOR CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE IS THE EXPECTED SHORT-WAVE RIDGING
FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IT/S NOT ENTIRELY
CLEAR HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE...WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT DURING THE 22Z-03Z TIME FRAME.  NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
ALLOWING A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO EVOLVE WITHIN AIRMASS
CHARACTERIZED BY 1500 J/KG SBCAPE BUT STRONGLY SHEARED...SFC-6KM
VALUES APPROACHING 50KT.  LOW SEVERE PROBS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/WIND.

..DARROW.. 04/23/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 230547
SWODY1
SPC AC 230546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
EJECT NEWD TOWARDS THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NRN PLAINS. AN
UPSTREAM IMPULSE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE BROADER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ...REACHING THE SRN
ROCKIES THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE CNTRL HIGH/NRN PLAINS WITH A DRYLINE MIXING INTO SW NEB TO W TX
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE
AND REACH THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS ON THU MORNING.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
THE PLUME OF RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES
OF 1.25-1.50 INCH PER 00Z RAOBS AND GPS DATA/ WILL LIKELY EMANATE
NWD FROM DEEP S TX WITHIN A N/S-ORIENTED CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE INFLUX
WILL BE RELATIVELY MODEST /ESPECIALLY WITH NRN EXTENT/...SURFACE DEW
POINTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S N OF THE RED RIVER WITH LOWER 60S
ACROSS CNTRL TX.

LATEST EXPECTATIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK WITH TWO
GENERAL REGIMES FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AMIDST QUITE STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO NRN
KS...STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
BENEATH MODERATE-STRONG 500-MB SWLYS OWING TO THE GLANCING INFLUENCE
OF THE NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A FEW SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM
PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL. WITH LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND
UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. SEVERE
HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING...WITH INTENSITY WANING
OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE MO VALLEY.

FARTHER S...SCATTERED DISCRETE TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSIST OF
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT. LARGE HAIL /A FEW SIGNIFICANT/ AND ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. DURING THE
EVENING...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME QUITE ENLARGED AS FLOW
STRENGTHENS. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE REALIZED BETWEEN
00-03Z ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF NEAR 60 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS
INVOF W OK/NW TX. STILL...QUALITY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
A LIMITING FACTOR TO A MORE ROBUST TORNADO RISK. WITH
TIME...COALESCING OF UPDRAFTS AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY YIELD
A SMALL MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND N TX WITH SEVERE
HAIL/WIND RISKS SUBSIDING EARLY THU.

..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 04/23/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 230547
SWODY1
SPC AC 230546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
EJECT NEWD TOWARDS THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND NRN PLAINS. AN
UPSTREAM IMPULSE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE BROADER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ...REACHING THE SRN
ROCKIES THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE CNTRL HIGH/NRN PLAINS WITH A DRYLINE MIXING INTO SW NEB TO W TX
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE
AND REACH THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS ON THU MORNING.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
THE PLUME OF RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES
OF 1.25-1.50 INCH PER 00Z RAOBS AND GPS DATA/ WILL LIKELY EMANATE
NWD FROM DEEP S TX WITHIN A N/S-ORIENTED CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT/DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE INFLUX
WILL BE RELATIVELY MODEST /ESPECIALLY WITH NRN EXTENT/...SURFACE DEW
POINTS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S N OF THE RED RIVER WITH LOWER 60S
ACROSS CNTRL TX.

LATEST EXPECTATIONS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK WITH TWO
GENERAL REGIMES FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AMIDST QUITE STEEP
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO NRN
KS...STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
BENEATH MODERATE-STRONG 500-MB SWLYS OWING TO THE GLANCING INFLUENCE
OF THE NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A FEW SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM
PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL. WITH LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND
UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS. SEVERE
HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING...WITH INTENSITY WANING
OVERNIGHT TOWARDS THE MO VALLEY.

FARTHER S...SCATTERED DISCRETE TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSIST OF
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT. LARGE HAIL /A FEW SIGNIFICANT/ AND ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. DURING THE
EVENING...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME QUITE ENLARGED AS FLOW
STRENGTHENS. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES MAY BE REALIZED BETWEEN
00-03Z ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF NEAR 60 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS
INVOF W OK/NW TX. STILL...QUALITY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
A LIMITING FACTOR TO A MORE ROBUST TORNADO RISK. WITH
TIME...COALESCING OF UPDRAFTS AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY YIELD
A SMALL MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND N TX WITH SEVERE
HAIL/WIND RISKS SUBSIDING EARLY THU.

..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 04/23/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 230508
SWODY2
SPC AC 230507

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WESTERN
TENNESSEE THURSDAY.  GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...

SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WILL EXTEND INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THURSDAY AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TRANSLATES TO A POSITION FROM
SERN MN...SWD INTO CNTRL AR AT 25/00Z.  EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...CONTINUANCE OF LATE DAY1 CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY REGION ALONG NOSE OF LLJ.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT PROPAGATES EWD INTO
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE AIRMASS.

OF MORE CONCERN IS A CORRIDOR OF EXPECTED STRONG HEATING FROM ERN
TX...NEWD INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF MO.  ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD WANE ACROSS TX...SRN INFLUENCE OF
STRONGER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CLIP PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.  IN FACT...THE NAM SUGGESTS A MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MAY EVOLVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGER-WAVE TROUGH AND EJECT
ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR AT PEAK HEATING.  DEEPENING WLY FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM RAPIDLY ACROSS THIS REGION AND
INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE BY 20Z ALONG THE WIND SHIFT.
 HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBS ALONG THE FRONT TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED
SCT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN A
SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.
ALTHOUGH DEEP FLOW WILL VEER SUBSTANTIALLY IT APPEARS BULK SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

ADDITIONALLY...HAVE EXTENDED LOW SEVERE PROBS ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN/SCNTRL TX.  MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP CONVECTION
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT VERY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
INSTABILITY WOULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IF
TSTMS DEVELOP.

..DARROW.. 04/23/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 230508
SWODY2
SPC AC 230507

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WESTERN
TENNESSEE THURSDAY.  GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...

SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WILL EXTEND INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY THURSDAY AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TRANSLATES TO A POSITION FROM
SERN MN...SWD INTO CNTRL AR AT 25/00Z.  EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...CONTINUANCE OF LATE DAY1 CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY REGION ALONG NOSE OF LLJ.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT PROPAGATES EWD INTO
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE AIRMASS.

OF MORE CONCERN IS A CORRIDOR OF EXPECTED STRONG HEATING FROM ERN
TX...NEWD INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF MO.  ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD WANE ACROSS TX...SRN INFLUENCE OF
STRONGER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CLIP PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.  IN FACT...THE NAM SUGGESTS A MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MAY EVOLVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGER-WAVE TROUGH AND EJECT
ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR AT PEAK HEATING.  DEEPENING WLY FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM RAPIDLY ACROSS THIS REGION AND
INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE BY 20Z ALONG THE WIND SHIFT.
 HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBS ALONG THE FRONT TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED
SCT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN A
SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.
ALTHOUGH DEEP FLOW WILL VEER SUBSTANTIALLY IT APPEARS BULK SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

ADDITIONALLY...HAVE EXTENDED LOW SEVERE PROBS ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN/SCNTRL TX.  MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP CONVECTION
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT VERY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
INSTABILITY WOULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IF
TSTMS DEVELOP.

..DARROW.. 04/23/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 230100
SWODY1
SPC AC 230059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW STORMS FROM CENTRAL
UTAH TO WESTERN WYOMING THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM MDT.

...ERN GREAT BASIN...
LOW/MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ATTENDANT TO THE GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...GIVEN 50 KT WINDS SAMPLED
THROUGHOUT A DEEPLY-MIXED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IN THE 00Z SLC RAOB.
THIS RISK WILL BE MOST PROMINENT JUST AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT IN
WRN WY TO CNTRL UT. OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS DECLINE THROUGH THE EVENING.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MAY STILL ACCOMPANY A COUPLE OF
HIGH-BASED STORMS FROM SWRN SD TO WRN KS. LACK OF ANY BUOYANCY IN
00Z DDC/LBF RAOBS SUGGEST SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
AFTER DARK.

..GRAMS.. 04/23/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 222308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222307
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-230100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SE PA...CNTRL/SRN NJ...NRN MD...NRN DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222307Z - 230100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS ALONG
A SEWD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MD AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWS 70 WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ABOVE 7 DEG PER KM
NOTED IN RECENT MESOANALYSIS. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MODEST
TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR
ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT CONTINUES SEWD. SOME
SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A WW.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40317640 40877511 40607446 40307422 39277508 38857606
            39027794 39417823 39687747 40317640





000
ACUS11 KWNS 222308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222307
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-230100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SE PA...CNTRL/SRN NJ...NRN MD...NRN DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222307Z - 230100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS ALONG
A SEWD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MD AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWS 70 WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ABOVE 7 DEG PER KM
NOTED IN RECENT MESOANALYSIS. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MODEST
TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR
ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT CONTINUES SEWD. SOME
SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A WW.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40317640 40877511 40607446 40307422 39277508 38857606
            39027794 39417823 39687747 40317640






000
ACUS11 KWNS 222308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222307
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-230100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SE PA...CNTRL/SRN NJ...NRN MD...NRN DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222307Z - 230100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS ALONG
A SEWD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MD AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWS 70 WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ABOVE 7 DEG PER KM
NOTED IN RECENT MESOANALYSIS. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL BUT 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MODEST
TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR
ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT CONTINUES SEWD. SOME
SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.
ISOLATED/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR A WW.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   40317640 40877511 40607446 40307422 39277508 38857606
            39027794 39417823 39687747 40317640





000
ACUS11 KWNS 222259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222258
UTZ000-WYZ000-230030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0383
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/NRN UT...INCLUDING SALT LAKE
CITY...INTO SWRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222258Z - 230030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SALT LAKE CITY AREA THROUGH 00-02Z.  DUE TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
COVERAGE AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH...THE NEED FOR A WATCH REMAINS
UNCLEAR.  BUT THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS PROBABLY WILL EXIST
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM.

DISCUSSION...A RATHER STRONG 2 HOUR SURFACE FALL/RISE COUPLET IS
EVIDENT IN LATEST SURFACE DATA NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...FROM EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN UTAH...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW EAST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
AS THIS FORCING CONTINUES EASTWARD...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DOES
NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A FRONTAL WAVE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE.  DEEPENING CONVECTION IS
EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WASATCH RANGE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...CAPE FOR THE DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS RATHER WEAK.  BUT LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THIS REGION...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA...ARE VERY
STEEP.  COINCIDING WITH A BELT OF 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER
FLOW NOSING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM.

..KERR/MEAD.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...

LAT...LON   40011288 40441275 41341262 41971166 41891088 40931125
            40481152 39861225 39741282 40011288





000
ACUS11 KWNS 222259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222258
UTZ000-WYZ000-230030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0383
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/NRN UT...INCLUDING SALT LAKE
CITY...INTO SWRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222258Z - 230030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SALT LAKE CITY AREA THROUGH 00-02Z.  DUE TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
COVERAGE AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH...THE NEED FOR A WATCH REMAINS
UNCLEAR.  BUT THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS PROBABLY WILL EXIST
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM.

DISCUSSION...A RATHER STRONG 2 HOUR SURFACE FALL/RISE COUPLET IS
EVIDENT IN LATEST SURFACE DATA NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...FROM EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN UTAH...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW EAST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
AS THIS FORCING CONTINUES EASTWARD...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DOES
NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A FRONTAL WAVE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE.  DEEPENING CONVECTION IS
EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WASATCH RANGE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...CAPE FOR THE DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS RATHER WEAK.  BUT LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THIS REGION...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA...ARE VERY
STEEP.  COINCIDING WITH A BELT OF 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER
FLOW NOSING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM.

..KERR/MEAD.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...

LAT...LON   40011288 40441275 41341262 41971166 41891088 40931125
            40481152 39861225 39741282 40011288






000
ACUS11 KWNS 222259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222258
UTZ000-WYZ000-230030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0383
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/NRN UT...INCLUDING SALT LAKE
CITY...INTO SWRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222258Z - 230030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SALT LAKE CITY AREA THROUGH 00-02Z.  DUE TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
COVERAGE AND UPDRAFT STRENGTH...THE NEED FOR A WATCH REMAINS
UNCLEAR.  BUT THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS PROBABLY WILL EXIST
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM.

DISCUSSION...A RATHER STRONG 2 HOUR SURFACE FALL/RISE COUPLET IS
EVIDENT IN LATEST SURFACE DATA NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN...FROM EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN UTAH...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW EAST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.
AS THIS FORCING CONTINUES EASTWARD...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DOES
NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A FRONTAL WAVE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE.  DEEPENING CONVECTION IS
EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE WASATCH RANGE...AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...CAPE FOR THE DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS RATHER WEAK.  BUT LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THIS REGION...INCLUDING MUCH OF THE SALT LAKE CITY AREA...ARE VERY
STEEP.  COINCIDING WITH A BELT OF 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER
FLOW NOSING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM.

..KERR/MEAD.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...

LAT...LON   40011288 40441275 41341262 41971166 41891088 40931125
            40481152 39861225 39741282 40011288





000
ACUS11 KWNS 222221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222220
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-222345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0382
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN MT...ERN ID/ADJACENT NRN UT INTO WRN
WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86...

VALID 222220Z - 222345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION...INCLUDING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH
00-02Z.  STRONGER CELLS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALIZED SURFACE
GUSTS REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA.

DISCUSSION...ANY POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED GUSTS APPEARS
TO BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW
ADVANCING EAST OF HELENA...BUTTE...DILLON...IDAHO FALLS...AND
POCATELLO.  OTHERWISE...CONVECTION...INCLUDING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AIDED BY STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION.  DUE WEAK INSTABILITY...PRIMARILY AS THE RESULT OF LIMITED
MOISTURE...STORMS MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG.  BUT THEY COULD BE
VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM
ASSOCIATED WITH 40+ KT MEAN LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN WYOMING.

..KERR.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...

LAT...LON   41971239 42421201 43261197 43991183 44711204 45291213
            45871265 46511270 47141201 47451104 47130994 46030957
            42701031 41731136 41971239





000
ACUS11 KWNS 222221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222220
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-222345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0382
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN MT...ERN ID/ADJACENT NRN UT INTO WRN
WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86...

VALID 222220Z - 222345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION...INCLUDING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH
00-02Z.  STRONGER CELLS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALIZED SURFACE
GUSTS REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA.

DISCUSSION...ANY POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED GUSTS APPEARS
TO BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW
ADVANCING EAST OF HELENA...BUTTE...DILLON...IDAHO FALLS...AND
POCATELLO.  OTHERWISE...CONVECTION...INCLUDING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AIDED BY STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION.  DUE WEAK INSTABILITY...PRIMARILY AS THE RESULT OF LIMITED
MOISTURE...STORMS MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG.  BUT THEY COULD BE
VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM
ASSOCIATED WITH 40+ KT MEAN LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN WYOMING.

..KERR.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...

LAT...LON   41971239 42421201 43261197 43991183 44711204 45291213
            45871265 46511270 47141201 47451104 47130994 46030957
            42701031 41731136 41971239





000
ACUS11 KWNS 222221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222220
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-222345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0382
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN MT...ERN ID/ADJACENT NRN UT INTO WRN
WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86...

VALID 222220Z - 222345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION...INCLUDING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH
00-02Z.  STRONGER CELLS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALIZED SURFACE
GUSTS REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA.

DISCUSSION...ANY POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED GUSTS APPEARS
TO BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW
ADVANCING EAST OF HELENA...BUTTE...DILLON...IDAHO FALLS...AND
POCATELLO.  OTHERWISE...CONVECTION...INCLUDING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AIDED BY STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION.  DUE WEAK INSTABILITY...PRIMARILY AS THE RESULT OF LIMITED
MOISTURE...STORMS MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG.  BUT THEY COULD BE
VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO ENHANCE THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM
ASSOCIATED WITH 40+ KT MEAN LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELDS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN WYOMING.

..KERR.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...

LAT...LON   41971239 42421201 43261197 43991183 44711204 45291213
            45871265 46511270 47141201 47451104 47130994 46030957
            42701031 41731136 41971239






000
ACUS11 KWNS 222215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222214
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-230015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0381
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222214Z - 230015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH
SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SVR HAIL. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW BUT TRENDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE LIFT AND INCREASING SWLY/WLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN/NRN ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM ERN CO NWWD INTO SE WY/NEB PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY ACROSS SE WY/NEB
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY BE FORCED BY BOTH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WHILE THE ACTIVITY FARTHER S
WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO ROBUST HEATING AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING.

MAIN PROBLEM REGARDING SVR POTENTIAL IS THE LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE HIGH PLAINS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S. DESPITE THIS LACK OF MOISTURE...STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN SOME INSTABILITY WITH RECENT
MESOANALYSIS/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MLCAPE UP TO 500 J
PER KG. BULK SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF MODEST UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION WITH
ANY STORMS THAT PERSIST. MOST OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY HAS
DIFFICULTLY MAINTAINING UPDRAFT STRENGTH THUS FAR. AS SUCH...A
CONDITIONAL SVR RISK EXISTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SVR
THREAT. SOME SVR HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE MONITORED.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...
ABQ...

LAT...LON   41490522 42660539 43460466 43550357 43190218 42160147
            40120092 38600070 36700160 35730426 37100428 39270363
            40770478 41490522





000
ACUS11 KWNS 222215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222214
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-230015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0381
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222214Z - 230015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH
SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SVR HAIL. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW BUT TRENDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE LIFT AND INCREASING SWLY/WLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN/NRN ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM ERN CO NWWD INTO SE WY/NEB PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY ACROSS SE WY/NEB
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY BE FORCED BY BOTH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WHILE THE ACTIVITY FARTHER S
WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO ROBUST HEATING AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING.

MAIN PROBLEM REGARDING SVR POTENTIAL IS THE LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE HIGH PLAINS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S. DESPITE THIS LACK OF MOISTURE...STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN SOME INSTABILITY WITH RECENT
MESOANALYSIS/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MLCAPE UP TO 500 J
PER KG. BULK SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF MODEST UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION WITH
ANY STORMS THAT PERSIST. MOST OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY HAS
DIFFICULTLY MAINTAINING UPDRAFT STRENGTH THUS FAR. AS SUCH...A
CONDITIONAL SVR RISK EXISTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SVR
THREAT. SOME SVR HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE MONITORED.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...
ABQ...

LAT...LON   41490522 42660539 43460466 43550357 43190218 42160147
            40120092 38600070 36700160 35730426 37100428 39270363
            40770478 41490522





000
ACUS11 KWNS 222215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222214
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-230015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0381
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222214Z - 230015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH
SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SVR HAIL. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW BUT TRENDS ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE LIFT AND INCREASING SWLY/WLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN/NRN ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS
FROM ERN CO NWWD INTO SE WY/NEB PANHANDLE. ACTIVITY ACROSS SE WY/NEB
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY BE FORCED BY BOTH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WHILE THE ACTIVITY FARTHER S
WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO ROBUST HEATING AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING.

MAIN PROBLEM REGARDING SVR POTENTIAL IS THE LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE HIGH PLAINS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S. DESPITE THIS LACK OF MOISTURE...STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN SOME INSTABILITY WITH RECENT
MESOANALYSIS/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MLCAPE UP TO 500 J
PER KG. BULK SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF MODEST UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION WITH
ANY STORMS THAT PERSIST. MOST OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY HAS
DIFFICULTLY MAINTAINING UPDRAFT STRENGTH THUS FAR. AS SUCH...A
CONDITIONAL SVR RISK EXISTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SVR
THREAT. SOME SVR HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BE MONITORED.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...
ABQ...

LAT...LON   41490522 42660539 43460466 43550357 43190218 42160147
            40120092 38600070 36700160 35730426 37100428 39270363
            40770478 41490522






000
ACUS01 KWNS 221959
SWODY1
SPC AC 221958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
IDAHO...SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AND WESTERN WYOMING...INCLUDING
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK.  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO MAY OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

...20Z UPDATE...
ONLY LIMITED CHANGES TO PRIOR OUTLOOK...CONSULT PRIOR DISCUSSION
BELOW. OBSERVATIONAL/GUIDANCE TRENDS STILL INDICATE THAT TSTMS WILL
INCREASE IN NUMBER/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A CORRIDOR
INCLUDING EASTERN ID/NORTHERN UT INTO SOUTHERN MT/WESTERN WY...WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE/SOME SEVERE
HAIL. FOR MORE SHORT-TERM DETAILS...SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 380.

..GUYER.. 04/22/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CONUS THROUGH WED. SHARP W CST TROUGH WILL ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE
TILT LATER TODAY/TNGT AS LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE
SIERRA TURNS E ACROSS NV THIS AFTN...AND CONTINUES NNE ACROSS SRN
UT/WRN WY EARLY WED. FARTHER E...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL PROGRESS E
ACROSS THE PLNS TODAY AS GRT LKS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES SE
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC.

AT LWR LVLS...BROAD SFC CYCLONE NOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE IN THE LEE OF
THE NRN RCKYS THIS AFTN/EVE...WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING EXPECTED AS
THE LOW REDEVELOPS E/SE INTO WRN SD BY 12Z WED. ELSEWHERE...COLD
FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE LWR GRT LKS TO THE TX GULF CST SHOULD
CONTINUE STEADILY SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS NWD AS BOUNDARY
COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH.

...NRN RCKYS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
APPROACH OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH WRN STATES TROUGH WILL
ENHANCE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE NRN GRT BASIN LATER TODAY. COUPLED WITH SFC
HEATING AND MODEST LOW-LVL MOISTENING IN WAKE OF PREVIOUS UPR
DISTURBANCE...SETUP MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW BAND OF
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION/STORMS ALONG THE FRONT FROM NRN UT NNE TO WRN
MT. SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM DURING THE MID-AFTN AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TNGT/EARLY WED...WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT. GIVEN STRONG TO VERY
STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND
STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
SVR/DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL.

...CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD LATE DAY/EARLY EVE STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY AND CO SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP E/NE INTO
THE ADJACENT HIGH PLNS. WHILE SPARSE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
BUOYANCY...STRONG STATIC INSTABILITY /STEEP LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES/ AMIDST STRENGTHENING MEAN SW FLOW AHEAD OF WRN U.S. TROUGH
MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

...ERN U.S....
LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND/OR DEEP SHEAR APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO
WARRANT INCLUSION OF SVR PROBABILITIES FOR STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG COLD FRONT CROSSING GA/SC LATER TODAY...OR WITH ACTIVITY
FORMING ALONG THE SAME FRONT AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPR TROUGH IN THE
NORTHEAST.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 221959
SWODY1
SPC AC 221958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
IDAHO...SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AND WESTERN WYOMING...INCLUDING
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK.  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO MAY OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

...20Z UPDATE...
ONLY LIMITED CHANGES TO PRIOR OUTLOOK...CONSULT PRIOR DISCUSSION
BELOW. OBSERVATIONAL/GUIDANCE TRENDS STILL INDICATE THAT TSTMS WILL
INCREASE IN NUMBER/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A CORRIDOR
INCLUDING EASTERN ID/NORTHERN UT INTO SOUTHERN MT/WESTERN WY...WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE/SOME SEVERE
HAIL. FOR MORE SHORT-TERM DETAILS...SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 380.

..GUYER.. 04/22/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CONUS THROUGH WED. SHARP W CST TROUGH WILL ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE
TILT LATER TODAY/TNGT AS LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE
SIERRA TURNS E ACROSS NV THIS AFTN...AND CONTINUES NNE ACROSS SRN
UT/WRN WY EARLY WED. FARTHER E...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL PROGRESS E
ACROSS THE PLNS TODAY AS GRT LKS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES SE
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC.

AT LWR LVLS...BROAD SFC CYCLONE NOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE IN THE LEE OF
THE NRN RCKYS THIS AFTN/EVE...WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING EXPECTED AS
THE LOW REDEVELOPS E/SE INTO WRN SD BY 12Z WED. ELSEWHERE...COLD
FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE LWR GRT LKS TO THE TX GULF CST SHOULD
CONTINUE STEADILY SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS NWD AS BOUNDARY
COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH.

...NRN RCKYS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
APPROACH OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH WRN STATES TROUGH WILL
ENHANCE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE NRN GRT BASIN LATER TODAY. COUPLED WITH SFC
HEATING AND MODEST LOW-LVL MOISTENING IN WAKE OF PREVIOUS UPR
DISTURBANCE...SETUP MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW BAND OF
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION/STORMS ALONG THE FRONT FROM NRN UT NNE TO WRN
MT. SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM DURING THE MID-AFTN AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TNGT/EARLY WED...WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT. GIVEN STRONG TO VERY
STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND
STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
SVR/DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL.

...CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD LATE DAY/EARLY EVE STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY AND CO SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP E/NE INTO
THE ADJACENT HIGH PLNS. WHILE SPARSE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
BUOYANCY...STRONG STATIC INSTABILITY /STEEP LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES/ AMIDST STRENGTHENING MEAN SW FLOW AHEAD OF WRN U.S. TROUGH
MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

...ERN U.S....
LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND/OR DEEP SHEAR APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO
WARRANT INCLUSION OF SVR PROBABILITIES FOR STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG COLD FRONT CROSSING GA/SC LATER TODAY...OR WITH ACTIVITY
FORMING ALONG THE SAME FRONT AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPR TROUGH IN THE
NORTHEAST.






000
ACUS11 KWNS 221958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221958
WYZ000-MTZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-222200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0380
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ID/SWRN MT/WRN WY/NRN UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221958Z - 222200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE ERN ID/SWRN MT VICINITY.  WITH RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
INCREASING...WW MAY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE IN
CUMULUS ACROSS THE ERN ID VICINITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
PAST HOUR...WITHIN A ZONE OF RELATIVELY LESS CLOUD COVER WHERE
HEATING HAS ALLOWED MODEST CAPE TO DEVELOP.  WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO MEAGER BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE...THIS DEFICIENCY IS BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY VERY STRONG
SLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF THE SHARP/ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH.
WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND THE INTENSE FLOW ALOFT...EVEN
WEAK/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF ALLOWING A LOCAL
DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM -- POSSIBLY AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE
EFFECTS GIVEN HIGH CLOUD BASES ABOVE THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE...AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EVOLVE...DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE TO THE EXTENT THAT WW ISSUANCE IS REQUIRED.

..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...

LAT...LON   45951288 46261232 46521059 45191019 42321022 40701068
            40611210 41941311 42481328 45511344 45951288





000
ACUS11 KWNS 221958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221958
WYZ000-MTZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-222200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0380
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ID/SWRN MT/WRN WY/NRN UT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221958Z - 222200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE ERN ID/SWRN MT VICINITY.  WITH RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
INCREASING...WW MAY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE IN
CUMULUS ACROSS THE ERN ID VICINITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
PAST HOUR...WITHIN A ZONE OF RELATIVELY LESS CLOUD COVER WHERE
HEATING HAS ALLOWED MODEST CAPE TO DEVELOP.  WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO MEAGER BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE...THIS DEFICIENCY IS BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY VERY STRONG
SLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF THE SHARP/ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH.
WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND THE INTENSE FLOW ALOFT...EVEN
WEAK/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF ALLOWING A LOCAL
DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM -- POSSIBLY AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE
EFFECTS GIVEN HIGH CLOUD BASES ABOVE THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE...AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EVOLVE...DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE TO THE EXTENT THAT WW ISSUANCE IS REQUIRED.

..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...

LAT...LON   45951288 46261232 46521059 45191019 42321022 40701068
            40611210 41941311 42481328 45511344 45951288






000
ACUS02 KWNS 221731
SWODY2
SPC AC 221730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH-PLAINS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TO NEBRASKA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
STEADY HEIGHT FALLS/STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE RELATIVELY MODEST MOISTURE CONTENT BY LATE
APRIL STANDARDS SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE CONSEQUENTIAL SEVERE RISK...A
STEADY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX WILL NONETHELESS OCCUR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST OF A SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE AND
AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. SOME LOWER 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS NEAR/EAST OF
THE DRYLINE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ACROSS KS/NEB.

STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN TWO GENERAL REGIMES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR ONE...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS
NEB/EVENTUALLY ADJACENT NORTHERN KS BY WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON IN
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MODERATE
INSTABILITY/STRONG SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/SOME
SUPERCELLS...WITH A QUICK LINEAR EVOLUTION LIKELY GIVEN A LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE AND THE FORCING/UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF
THE COLD FRONT. SEVERE HAIL/WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.

FARTHER SOUTH...OTHER MORE DISCRETE TSTMS INCLUDING HIGH-BASED
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING NEAR THE DRYLINE AS IT EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
SOUTHWEST KS INTO WEST/SOUTHWEST TX. STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE
INSTABILITY /2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
/AROUND 40 KT EFFECTIVE/ WILL ALLOW FOR INITIALLY HIGH-BASED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. SOME
TORNADO RISK MAY EXIST AS WELL...PARTICULARLY BY EARLY EVENING...BUT
MODEST MOISTURE/RELATIVELY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL
TORNADO RISK MODEST.

..GUYER.. 04/22/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 221731
SWODY2
SPC AC 221730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH-PLAINS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TO NEBRASKA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
STEADY HEIGHT FALLS/STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE RELATIVELY MODEST MOISTURE CONTENT BY LATE
APRIL STANDARDS SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE CONSEQUENTIAL SEVERE RISK...A
STEADY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX WILL NONETHELESS OCCUR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST OF A SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE AND
AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. SOME LOWER 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS NEAR/EAST OF
THE DRYLINE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ACROSS KS/NEB.

STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN TWO GENERAL REGIMES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR ONE...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS
NEB/EVENTUALLY ADJACENT NORTHERN KS BY WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON IN
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. MODERATE
INSTABILITY/STRONG SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/SOME
SUPERCELLS...WITH A QUICK LINEAR EVOLUTION LIKELY GIVEN A LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE AND THE FORCING/UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF
THE COLD FRONT. SEVERE HAIL/WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.

FARTHER SOUTH...OTHER MORE DISCRETE TSTMS INCLUDING HIGH-BASED
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING NEAR THE DRYLINE AS IT EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
SOUTHWEST KS INTO WEST/SOUTHWEST TX. STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE
INSTABILITY /2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
/AROUND 40 KT EFFECTIVE/ WILL ALLOW FOR INITIALLY HIGH-BASED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. SOME
TORNADO RISK MAY EXIST AS WELL...PARTICULARLY BY EARLY EVENING...BUT
MODEST MOISTURE/RELATIVELY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL
TORNADO RISK MODEST.

..GUYER.. 04/22/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 221630
SWODY1
SPC AC 221628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN GRT
BASIN/NRN RCKYS...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
IDAHO...SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AND NORTHWEST WYOMING...INCLUDING
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK.  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO MAY OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CONUS THROUGH WED. SHARP W CST TROUGH WILL ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE
TILT LATER TODAY/TNGT AS LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE
SIERRA TURNS E ACROSS NV THIS AFTN...AND CONTINUES NNE ACROSS SRN
UT/WRN WY EARLY WED. FARTHER E...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL PROGRESS E
ACROSS THE PLNS TODAY AS GRT LKS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES SE
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC.

AT LWR LVLS...BROAD SFC CYCLONE NOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE IN THE LEE OF
THE NRN RCKYS THIS AFTN/EVE...WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING EXPECTED AS
THE LOW REDEVELOPS E/SE INTO WRN SD BY 12Z WED. ELSEWHERE...COLD
FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE LWR GRT LKS TO THE TX GULF CST SHOULD
CONTINUE STEADILY SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS NWD AS BOUNDARY
COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH.

...NRN RCKYS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
APPROACH OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH WRN STATES TROUGH WILL
ENHANCE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE NRN GRT BASIN LATER TODAY. COUPLED WITH SFC
HEATING AND MODEST LOW-LVL MOISTENING IN WAKE OF PREVIOUS UPR
DISTURBANCE...SETUP MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW BAND OF
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION/STORMS ALONG THE FRONT FROM NRN UT NNE TO WRN
MT. SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM DURING THE MID-AFTN AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TNGT/EARLY WED...WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT. GIVEN STRONG TO VERY
STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND
STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
SVR/DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL.

...CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD LATE DAY/EARLY EVE STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY AND CO SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP E/NE INTO
THE ADJACENT HIGH PLNS. WHILE SPARSE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
BUOYANCY...STRONG STATIC INSTABILITY /STEEP LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES/ AMIDST STRENGTHENING MEAN SW FLOW AHEAD OF WRN U.S. TROUGH
MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

...ERN U.S....
LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND/OR DEEP SHEAR APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO
WARRANT INCLUSION OF SVR PROBABILITIES FOR STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG COLD FRONT CROSSING GA/SC LATER TODAY...OR WITH ACTIVITY
FORMING ALONG THE SAME FRONT AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPR TROUGH IN THE
NORTHEAST.

..CORFIDI/LEITMAN.. 04/22/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 221630
SWODY1
SPC AC 221628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN GRT
BASIN/NRN RCKYS...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
IDAHO...SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AND NORTHWEST WYOMING...INCLUDING
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK.  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO MAY OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
CONUS THROUGH WED. SHARP W CST TROUGH WILL ASSUME A SLIGHT NEGATIVE
TILT LATER TODAY/TNGT AS LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE
SIERRA TURNS E ACROSS NV THIS AFTN...AND CONTINUES NNE ACROSS SRN
UT/WRN WY EARLY WED. FARTHER E...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL PROGRESS E
ACROSS THE PLNS TODAY AS GRT LKS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES SE
TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC.

AT LWR LVLS...BROAD SFC CYCLONE NOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE IN THE LEE OF
THE NRN RCKYS THIS AFTN/EVE...WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING EXPECTED AS
THE LOW REDEVELOPS E/SE INTO WRN SD BY 12Z WED. ELSEWHERE...COLD
FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM THE LWR GRT LKS TO THE TX GULF CST SHOULD
CONTINUE STEADILY SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS NWD AS BOUNDARY
COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH.

...NRN RCKYS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
APPROACH OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH WRN STATES TROUGH WILL
ENHANCE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR ALONG ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE NRN GRT BASIN LATER TODAY. COUPLED WITH SFC
HEATING AND MODEST LOW-LVL MOISTENING IN WAKE OF PREVIOUS UPR
DISTURBANCE...SETUP MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW BAND OF
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION/STORMS ALONG THE FRONT FROM NRN UT NNE TO WRN
MT. SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM DURING THE MID-AFTN AND CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE TNGT/EARLY WED...WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS EXPECTED
LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT. GIVEN STRONG TO VERY
STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND
STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
SVR/DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL.

...CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD LATE DAY/EARLY EVE STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY AND CO SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP E/NE INTO
THE ADJACENT HIGH PLNS. WHILE SPARSE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
BUOYANCY...STRONG STATIC INSTABILITY /STEEP LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES/ AMIDST STRENGTHENING MEAN SW FLOW AHEAD OF WRN U.S. TROUGH
MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

...ERN U.S....
LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND/OR DEEP SHEAR APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO
WARRANT INCLUSION OF SVR PROBABILITIES FOR STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG COLD FRONT CROSSING GA/SC LATER TODAY...OR WITH ACTIVITY
FORMING ALONG THE SAME FRONT AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPR TROUGH IN THE
NORTHEAST.

..CORFIDI/LEITMAN.. 04/22/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 221253
SWODY1
SPC AC 221251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NWRN WY...SERN
ID...SWRN MT...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA...NORTHWESTERN WYOMING AND
SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO...INCLUDING YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK.  ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE AND FAIRLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER CONUS THIS PERIOD.  NRN-STREAM
TROUGH -- CURRENTLY OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES AND LOWER MI -- IS FCST
TO MOVE EWD TO SERN ONT...NY AND PA BY 00Z.  PROXIMAL/TRAILING
PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
BOUNDARY-WATERS REGION OF MN/ONT -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS LOWER
MI BY 00Z.  THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MAIN
BASAL VORTICITY MAX FOR NRN APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVERNIGHT.

SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- INITIALLY OVER DEEP S TX AND MS --
WILL BECOME BETTER-PHASED TODAY.  BY 00Z...ASSOCIATED VORTICITY AXIS
SHOULD EXTEND FROM SC ACROSS FL PANHANDLE TO NWRN GULF...THEN SW-NE
ACROSS FL PENINSULA BY 12Z.  UPSTREAM...MAJOR/HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INLAND OVER W COAST STATES DURING NEXT FEW
HOURS...REACHING FROM WA CASCADES ACROSS WRN NV TO SRN CA BY 00Z AND
NRN ROCKIES TO UT/AZ BY 12Z.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW OVER
ONT/QUE BORDER SWWD ACROSS NWRN OH...WRN KY...SERN AR AND S-CENTRAL
TX.  BY 00Z...LOW SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR NRN TIP OF NH...WITH FRONT
SWWD ACROSS SERN NY...ERN VA...AL AND SRN LA...BECOMING
QUASISTATIONARY OVER S TX.  BY 12Z...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SE TX
ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TO SC AND ADJOINING ATLC
WATERS...WHILE DISSIPATING OVER CENTRAL/S TX.  WRN-CONUS COLD FRONT
SHOULD STRENGTHEN TODAY OVER ID AND NRN NV...MOVING EWD TO ERN
BORDERS OF MT/WY AND CENTRAL CO BY END OF PERIOD.

...NRN ROCKIES...
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS THIS
REGION LATE AFTN AND EVENING...OFFERING SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS AND
ISOLATED HAIL.  DESPITE LACK OF MOISTURE...ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED TSTM WIND EVENT IS APPARENT THAT SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN BOOSTED TO CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS IN YELLOWSTONE REGION.

STG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRECEDE MID-UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...ACTING IN TANDEM WITH LIMITED NEAR-SFC HEATING TO STEEPEN
LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  IR IMAGERY SHOWS THICK HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE OUTLOOK AREA ATTM...BUT ALSO...RELATIVE SLOT OF CLEARING OVER
PORTIONS NRN NV/SRN ID THAT SHOULD WORK NEWD OVER THIS AREA BY AFTN.
LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT AND RELATED FORCING...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC
LIFT IN LOCALIZED UPSLOPE AREAS...SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION THIS
AFTN OVER PORTIONS SERN ID AND WRN MT...WHICH WOULD MOVE RAPIDLY
NEWD AMIDST STG DEEP SHEAR.  MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LACK OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH PRECONVECTIVE SFC DEW
POINTS MAINLY IN 30S F AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THANKS TO ANTECEDENT
RAIN.

TSTMS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT HIGH-BASED...OFFERING BOTH
MOMENTUM-TRANSFER POTENTIAL FROM STG FLOW ALOFT AND EVAPORATIVE
ACCELERATIONS THROUGH WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER.  COLD-POOL
GENERATION AND BOWING ARE POSSIBLE IF ACTIVITY CAN AGGREGATE
DENSELY.  THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH NEWD EXTENT AFTER DARK AS
FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE STABLE AND ALREADY MEAGER CAPE
DIMINISHES.

...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
SUSTAINED SFC HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ENCOURAGE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS BY LATE AFTN OVER HIGH PLAINS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY FORM IN AND MOVE EWD/NEWD FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES.  DRY AIR MASS
WILL KEEP MLCAPE VERY WEAK -- BELOW 500 J/KG MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER.

...MID-ATLC TO SRN APPALACHIANS REGION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF SFC COLD FRONT
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW VERY LOCALIZED/ISOLATED STG
GUSTS POSSIBLE.  SFC DIABATIC HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE PREFRONTAL
AIR MASS...BUT IN PRESENCE OF MEAGER MOISTURE SUCH THAT ONLY NARROW
SLIVER OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE IS EXPECTED AT MOST.  VERTICAL SHEAR
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO SHOULD BE WEAK...WITH FLOW VEERING
AHEAD OF FRONT AND STRONGEST NRN-STREAM FLOW LAGGING BEHIND.
OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL AND MRGL ATTM TO
SPECIFY A 5% AREA WITHIN THIS LONG CORRIDOR.

..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 04/22/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 221253
SWODY1
SPC AC 221251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NWRN WY...SERN
ID...SWRN MT...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA...NORTHWESTERN WYOMING AND
SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO...INCLUDING YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK.  ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE AND FAIRLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER CONUS THIS PERIOD.  NRN-STREAM
TROUGH -- CURRENTLY OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES AND LOWER MI -- IS FCST
TO MOVE EWD TO SERN ONT...NY AND PA BY 00Z.  PROXIMAL/TRAILING
PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
BOUNDARY-WATERS REGION OF MN/ONT -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS LOWER
MI BY 00Z.  THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MAIN
BASAL VORTICITY MAX FOR NRN APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLC SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVERNIGHT.

SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- INITIALLY OVER DEEP S TX AND MS --
WILL BECOME BETTER-PHASED TODAY.  BY 00Z...ASSOCIATED VORTICITY AXIS
SHOULD EXTEND FROM SC ACROSS FL PANHANDLE TO NWRN GULF...THEN SW-NE
ACROSS FL PENINSULA BY 12Z.  UPSTREAM...MAJOR/HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INLAND OVER W COAST STATES DURING NEXT FEW
HOURS...REACHING FROM WA CASCADES ACROSS WRN NV TO SRN CA BY 00Z AND
NRN ROCKIES TO UT/AZ BY 12Z.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW OVER
ONT/QUE BORDER SWWD ACROSS NWRN OH...WRN KY...SERN AR AND S-CENTRAL
TX.  BY 00Z...LOW SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR NRN TIP OF NH...WITH FRONT
SWWD ACROSS SERN NY...ERN VA...AL AND SRN LA...BECOMING
QUASISTATIONARY OVER S TX.  BY 12Z...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SE TX
ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TO SC AND ADJOINING ATLC
WATERS...WHILE DISSIPATING OVER CENTRAL/S TX.  WRN-CONUS COLD FRONT
SHOULD STRENGTHEN TODAY OVER ID AND NRN NV...MOVING EWD TO ERN
BORDERS OF MT/WY AND CENTRAL CO BY END OF PERIOD.

...NRN ROCKIES...
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS THIS
REGION LATE AFTN AND EVENING...OFFERING SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS AND
ISOLATED HAIL.  DESPITE LACK OF MOISTURE...ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED TSTM WIND EVENT IS APPARENT THAT SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN BOOSTED TO CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS IN YELLOWSTONE REGION.

STG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRECEDE MID-UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...ACTING IN TANDEM WITH LIMITED NEAR-SFC HEATING TO STEEPEN
LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  IR IMAGERY SHOWS THICK HIGH CLOUDS
ABOVE OUTLOOK AREA ATTM...BUT ALSO...RELATIVE SLOT OF CLEARING OVER
PORTIONS NRN NV/SRN ID THAT SHOULD WORK NEWD OVER THIS AREA BY AFTN.
LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT AND RELATED FORCING...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC
LIFT IN LOCALIZED UPSLOPE AREAS...SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION THIS
AFTN OVER PORTIONS SERN ID AND WRN MT...WHICH WOULD MOVE RAPIDLY
NEWD AMIDST STG DEEP SHEAR.  MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LACK OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH PRECONVECTIVE SFC DEW
POINTS MAINLY IN 30S F AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THANKS TO ANTECEDENT
RAIN.

TSTMS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT HIGH-BASED...OFFERING BOTH
MOMENTUM-TRANSFER POTENTIAL FROM STG FLOW ALOFT AND EVAPORATIVE
ACCELERATIONS THROUGH WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER.  COLD-POOL
GENERATION AND BOWING ARE POSSIBLE IF ACTIVITY CAN AGGREGATE
DENSELY.  THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH NEWD EXTENT AFTER DARK AS
FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE STABLE AND ALREADY MEAGER CAPE
DIMINISHES.

...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
SUSTAINED SFC HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ENCOURAGE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS BY LATE AFTN OVER HIGH PLAINS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY FORM IN AND MOVE EWD/NEWD FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES.  DRY AIR MASS
WILL KEEP MLCAPE VERY WEAK -- BELOW 500 J/KG MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER.

...MID-ATLC TO SRN APPALACHIANS REGION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF SFC COLD FRONT
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW VERY LOCALIZED/ISOLATED STG
GUSTS POSSIBLE.  SFC DIABATIC HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE PREFRONTAL
AIR MASS...BUT IN PRESENCE OF MEAGER MOISTURE SUCH THAT ONLY NARROW
SLIVER OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE IS EXPECTED AT MOST.  VERTICAL SHEAR
AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO SHOULD BE WEAK...WITH FLOW VEERING
AHEAD OF FRONT AND STRONGEST NRN-STREAM FLOW LAGGING BEHIND.
OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL AND MRGL ATTM TO
SPECIFY A 5% AREA WITHIN THIS LONG CORRIDOR.

..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 04/22/2014





000
ACUS03 KWNS 220702
SWODY3
SPC AC 220701

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY FORM ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY.  GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...LOWER OH VALLEY...

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY THURSDAY AS 70KT+ 500 MB SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS SRN IA
TOWARD NRN IL.  NAM IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS SPEED MAX
THAN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF...THOUGH ALL ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
REGARDING POSITION OF TROUGH/SPEED MAX.

CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DAY2 CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AS LLJ FOCUSES ACROSS NRN IL/WI.  AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING
SPREADS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SHOULD BECOME LESS CONVERGENT AS IT TRAILS ACROSS SRN AR
INTO CNTRL TX.  HOWEVER...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT FROM ERN AR INTO SRN INDIANA.  THIS
PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF STRONGER HEATING SHOULD DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY 20Z AS
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 70F NEAR THE OH RIVER...TO NEAR 80 OVER
ERN AR.  HAVE INTRODUCED 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE.  A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE MORE ROBUST TSTMS...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AS STRONGER FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WELL NORTH OF THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 04/22/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 220702
SWODY3
SPC AC 220701

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY FORM ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THURSDAY.  GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...LOWER OH VALLEY...

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MS VALLEY THURSDAY AS 70KT+ 500 MB SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS SRN IA
TOWARD NRN IL.  NAM IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER WITH THIS SPEED MAX
THAN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF...THOUGH ALL ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
REGARDING POSITION OF TROUGH/SPEED MAX.

CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DAY2 CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION AS LLJ FOCUSES ACROSS NRN IL/WI.  AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING
SPREADS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SHOULD BECOME LESS CONVERGENT AS IT TRAILS ACROSS SRN AR
INTO CNTRL TX.  HOWEVER...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT FROM ERN AR INTO SRN INDIANA.  THIS
PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF STRONGER HEATING SHOULD DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY 20Z AS
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 70F NEAR THE OH RIVER...TO NEAR 80 OVER
ERN AR.  HAVE INTRODUCED 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE.  A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE MORE ROBUST TSTMS...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AS STRONGER FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WELL NORTH OF THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 04/22/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 220533
SWODY1
SPC AC 220531

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL SHIFT
INLAND ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH EARLY WED. THIS WILL INDUCE LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH A SHARPENING COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A
DOWNSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
GREAT PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SEWD IN THE SOUTHEAST.

...NRN ROCKIES TO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
PW VALUES AOB 0.75 INCH WILL LIMIT RESULTANT BUOYANCY DOWNSTREAM OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED WRN UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
GENERALLY ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S AT PEAK HEATING.
NEVERTHELESS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONGLY FORCED LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD FOSTER SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS ERN ID INTO
SWRN MT...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE IMPINGING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE LARGELY MERIDIONAL...HODOGRAPHS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS MAY FORM
WITH SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY. HAVE EXTENDED INHERITED SEVERE
PROBABILITIES FARTHER W TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.

TO THE SE/S ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...TSTMS SHOULD BE
ISOLATED ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND RATHER HIGH-BASED WITH SURFACE DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 40-50 DEG F. SOME STRENGTHENING OF
MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS SHOULD OCCUR LATE DAY WHICH WOULD AID IN MARGINAL
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL DEVELOPING TOWARDS EARLY EVENING.

...SOUTHEAST TO MID-ATLANTIC...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE
E/SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL YIELD LARGELY WEAK
INSTABILITY. COUPLED WITH GENERALLY MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TOO LOW TO
WARRANT PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 04/22/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 220533
SWODY1
SPC AC 220531

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
LOCALIZED SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL SHIFT
INLAND ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH EARLY WED. THIS WILL INDUCE LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH A SHARPENING COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A
DOWNSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
GREAT PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SEWD IN THE SOUTHEAST.

...NRN ROCKIES TO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
PW VALUES AOB 0.75 INCH WILL LIMIT RESULTANT BUOYANCY DOWNSTREAM OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED WRN UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
GENERALLY ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S AT PEAK HEATING.
NEVERTHELESS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONGLY FORCED LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD FOSTER SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS ERN ID INTO
SWRN MT...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE IMPINGING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE LARGELY MERIDIONAL...HODOGRAPHS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS MAY FORM
WITH SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY. HAVE EXTENDED INHERITED SEVERE
PROBABILITIES FARTHER W TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.

TO THE SE/S ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...TSTMS SHOULD BE
ISOLATED ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND RATHER HIGH-BASED WITH SURFACE DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 40-50 DEG F. SOME STRENGTHENING OF
MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS SHOULD OCCUR LATE DAY WHICH WOULD AID IN MARGINAL
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL DEVELOPING TOWARDS EARLY EVENING.

...SOUTHEAST TO MID-ATLANTIC...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE
E/SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL YIELD LARGELY WEAK
INSTABILITY. COUPLED WITH GENERALLY MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TOO LOW TO
WARRANT PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 04/22/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 220520
SWODY2
SPC AC 220519

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS TO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

MULTIFACETED TROUGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY WITH
PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO FOCUS OVER THE
NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  HOWEVER...NAM
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT
FROM THE BASE OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
INTO SWRN KS/TX PANHANDLE AFTER 21Z.  50KT+ 500MB SPEED MAX IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE DRYLINE INTO NWRN OK BY 24/00Z
ENHANCING ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.

LEE TROUGH WILL BE DISLODGED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO WRN
KS...SWD INTO ERN TRANS PECOS OF TX AS STRONGER FLOW SPREADS ACROSS
THIS REGION...AIDED BY STRONG HEATING.  WHILE ABSOLUTE MOISTURE
CONTENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT GREAT...PW VALUES SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND ONE INCH JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHERE SFC DEW POINTS HOLD
IN THE 50S.  AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80F SFC PARCELS SHOULD
FREELY CONVECT WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
ROUGHLY 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE.  INITIALLY THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
FAIRLY HIGH-BASED BUT LIKELY SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE AS SUBSTANTIAL
SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION.  LATEST THINKING
IS SCT SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...SHOULD
EMERGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...NWD
INTO WRN KS.  SCT-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SURGING COLD FRONT ACROSS
NEB.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE DURING THE EVENING
AS STRONG LLJ FOCUSES ACROSS ERN KS INTO SWRN IA.

EWD EXTENT OF THIS DIURNALLY INITIATED CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY
SPREAD TO NEAR I-35 CORRIDOR ACROSS OK/KS/NWRN MO/IA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 04/22/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 220520
SWODY2
SPC AC 220519

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS TO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

MULTIFACETED TROUGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY WITH
PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO FOCUS OVER THE
NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  HOWEVER...NAM
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT
FROM THE BASE OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
INTO SWRN KS/TX PANHANDLE AFTER 21Z.  50KT+ 500MB SPEED MAX IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE DRYLINE INTO NWRN OK BY 24/00Z
ENHANCING ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED ROTATING
UPDRAFTS.

LEE TROUGH WILL BE DISLODGED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO WRN
KS...SWD INTO ERN TRANS PECOS OF TX AS STRONGER FLOW SPREADS ACROSS
THIS REGION...AIDED BY STRONG HEATING.  WHILE ABSOLUTE MOISTURE
CONTENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT GREAT...PW VALUES SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND ONE INCH JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHERE SFC DEW POINTS HOLD
IN THE 50S.  AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80F SFC PARCELS SHOULD
FREELY CONVECT WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
ROUGHLY 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE.  INITIALLY THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
FAIRLY HIGH-BASED BUT LIKELY SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE AS SUBSTANTIAL
SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION.  LATEST THINKING
IS SCT SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...SHOULD
EMERGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...NWD
INTO WRN KS.  SCT-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG SURGING COLD FRONT ACROSS
NEB.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE DURING THE EVENING
AS STRONG LLJ FOCUSES ACROSS ERN KS INTO SWRN IA.

EWD EXTENT OF THIS DIURNALLY INITIATED CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY
SPREAD TO NEAR I-35 CORRIDOR ACROSS OK/KS/NWRN MO/IA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 04/22/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 220211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220210
TXZ000-220315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0379
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/S CNTRL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85...

VALID 220210Z - 220315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...IN GENERAL...THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND
ANOTHER WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NEEDED...BUT A LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION
IN TIME FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DISCUSSION...COLD POOL CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING WAS
APPARENTLY NOT SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT TO OVERCOME
INCREASING INHIBITION /WITH SURFACE COOLING/ FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS SOUTHEAST OF THE HILL COUNTRY.  EVEN WITH THE ONGOING
CLUSTERING OF STORMS ACROSS THE JUNCTION/KERRVILLE AREAS...POTENTIAL
FOR APPRECIABLE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DOUBTFUL GIVEN THE LACK OF A MORE SUBSTANTIVE LOW-LEVEL JET.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING PERSISTS IN STRONGER STORMS...PARTICULARLY WITH
STORMS SLOWLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OF THE DALLAS METRO AREA...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING...OR AT LEAST
BECOMING TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE/SPARSE IN COVERAGE FOR ANOTHER
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.

..KERR.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30980017 30879921 30949843 31399740 32339697 32649662
            32709572 32329540 32179644 29859733 29349860 30530069
            30980017






000
ACUS11 KWNS 220211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220210
TXZ000-220315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0379
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/S CNTRL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85...

VALID 220210Z - 220315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...IN GENERAL...THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND
ANOTHER WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NEEDED...BUT A LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION
IN TIME FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DISCUSSION...COLD POOL CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING WAS
APPARENTLY NOT SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT TO OVERCOME
INCREASING INHIBITION /WITH SURFACE COOLING/ FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS SOUTHEAST OF THE HILL COUNTRY.  EVEN WITH THE ONGOING
CLUSTERING OF STORMS ACROSS THE JUNCTION/KERRVILLE AREAS...POTENTIAL
FOR APPRECIABLE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DOUBTFUL GIVEN THE LACK OF A MORE SUBSTANTIVE LOW-LEVEL JET.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING PERSISTS IN STRONGER STORMS...PARTICULARLY WITH
STORMS SLOWLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OF THE DALLAS METRO AREA...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING...OR AT LEAST
BECOMING TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE/SPARSE IN COVERAGE FOR ANOTHER
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.

..KERR.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30980017 30879921 30949843 31399740 32339697 32649662
            32709572 32329540 32179644 29859733 29349860 30530069
            30980017





000
ACUS11 KWNS 220211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220210
TXZ000-220315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0379
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/S CNTRL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85...

VALID 220210Z - 220315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...IN GENERAL...THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND
ANOTHER WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NEEDED...BUT A LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION
IN TIME FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DISCUSSION...COLD POOL CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING WAS
APPARENTLY NOT SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT TO OVERCOME
INCREASING INHIBITION /WITH SURFACE COOLING/ FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS SOUTHEAST OF THE HILL COUNTRY.  EVEN WITH THE ONGOING
CLUSTERING OF STORMS ACROSS THE JUNCTION/KERRVILLE AREAS...POTENTIAL
FOR APPRECIABLE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DOUBTFUL GIVEN THE LACK OF A MORE SUBSTANTIVE LOW-LEVEL JET.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING PERSISTS IN STRONGER STORMS...PARTICULARLY WITH
STORMS SLOWLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OF THE DALLAS METRO AREA...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING...OR AT LEAST
BECOMING TOO ISOLATED IN NATURE/SPARSE IN COVERAGE FOR ANOTHER
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.

..KERR.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30980017 30879921 30949843 31399740 32339697 32649662
            32709572 32329540 32179644 29859733 29349860 30530069
            30980017





000
ACUS01 KWNS 220052
SWODY1
SPC AC 220050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S-CNTRL TO NE TX...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER 10 PM.

...ARKLATEX TO S-CNTRL TX...
A BROKEN AREA OF TSTMS IN A NE/SW-ORIENTATION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
HAS THUS FAR PRODUCED SEVERE HAIL. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
WEAK...25-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOSTER
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH FURTHER AMALGAMATION OF UPDRAFTS AMIDST
MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG MAY YIELD A LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND RISK
DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM
FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE MCD 0378.

MINIMAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND ONSET OF NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN DIMINISHING CONVECTION /ESPECIALLY OVER
S-CNTRL TX WHERE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RELATIVELY
LARGER/. CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY PERSIST LONGER INVOF ARKLATEX TO
LOWER MS VALLEY AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS E OF THE ARKLATEX IS
PROGRESSIVELY LESS UNSTABLE /PER 00Z JAN RAOB/...SUGGESTING THAT
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME SUB-SEVERE OVERNIGHT.

..GRAMS.. 04/22/2014





000
ACUS11 KWNS 220014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220013
TXZ000-220145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND S CNTRL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85...

VALID 220013Z - 220145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRYLINE STORMS INTO
THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME...WHILE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SMALL ...BUT
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO APPROACH SAN
ANTONIO WITH THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS GENERALLY
FOCUSED ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH RECENT STORM MERGER EAST OF
JUNCTION.  GIVEN MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY SYSTEM RELATIVELY
INFLOW...THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING
SOUTHWARD...AND COULD IMPACT THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA BY 02-03Z.
PERHAPS AIDED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND INFLOW OF
UNSTABLE AIR CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000
J/KG...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH APPEARS POSSIBLE
BEFORE REACHING SAN ANTONIO.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL WILL CONTINUE...AND THE RISK FOR A DAMAGING DOWNBURST
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY BE INCREASING.

..KERR.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30510093 30820064 30989953 31229848 31749752 32249723
            32449686 32059647 31109730 30479805 30269814 29959813
            29409839 29329877 29369932 30049974 30510093





000
ACUS11 KWNS 220014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220013
TXZ000-220145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND S CNTRL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85...

VALID 220013Z - 220145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRYLINE STORMS INTO
THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME...WHILE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SMALL ...BUT
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO APPROACH SAN
ANTONIO WITH THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS GENERALLY
FOCUSED ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH RECENT STORM MERGER EAST OF
JUNCTION.  GIVEN MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY SYSTEM RELATIVELY
INFLOW...THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING
SOUTHWARD...AND COULD IMPACT THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA BY 02-03Z.
PERHAPS AIDED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND INFLOW OF
UNSTABLE AIR CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000
J/KG...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH APPEARS POSSIBLE
BEFORE REACHING SAN ANTONIO.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL WILL CONTINUE...AND THE RISK FOR A DAMAGING DOWNBURST
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY BE INCREASING.

..KERR.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30510093 30820064 30989953 31229848 31749752 32249723
            32449686 32059647 31109730 30479805 30269814 29959813
            29409839 29329877 29369932 30049974 30510093






000
ACUS11 KWNS 220014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220013
TXZ000-220145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0378
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND S CNTRL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85...

VALID 220013Z - 220145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRYLINE STORMS INTO
THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME...WHILE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SMALL ...BUT
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO APPROACH SAN
ANTONIO WITH THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS GENERALLY
FOCUSED ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH RECENT STORM MERGER EAST OF
JUNCTION.  GIVEN MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY SYSTEM RELATIVELY
INFLOW...THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING
SOUTHWARD...AND COULD IMPACT THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA BY 02-03Z.
PERHAPS AIDED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND INFLOW OF
UNSTABLE AIR CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000
J/KG...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH APPEARS POSSIBLE
BEFORE REACHING SAN ANTONIO.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL WILL CONTINUE...AND THE RISK FOR A DAMAGING DOWNBURST
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY BE INCREASING.

..KERR.. 04/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30510093 30820064 30989953 31229848 31749752 32249723
            32449686 32059647 31109730 30479805 30269814 29959813
            29409839 29329877 29369932 30049974 30510093





000
ACUS11 KWNS 212210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212209
TXZ000-212345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85...

VALID 212209Z - 212345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...MODEST CONVECTIVE SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL MAY STILL
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/ SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...THE DRYLINE APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.  THIS IS WHERE MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP...INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG HEATING...AND MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
MODERATELY LARGE MIXED LAYER CAPE.  SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH
35-40 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

LATEST WDSS-II MESH DATA SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST ONGOING CELLS ARE
PROBABLY PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND THIS THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING.  ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE...AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING APPEARS
WEAK...CLUSTERING OF STORMS WEST OF TEMPLE AND AUSTIN INTO THE
JUNCTION AREA MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH THAT CONSOLIDATION OF COLD POOLS
COULD BEGIN TO OCCUR AND SUPPORT THE UPSCALE GROWTH OF A MORE
ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER.  IF THIS OCCURS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
TENDENCY WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS THROUGH THE 00-02Z
TIME FRAME...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 04/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30880045 30819957 30999886 31129844 31339810 31839756
            32249745 32579682 32219619 31349693 30529734 29779790
            29519883 30040025 30600064 30880045





000
ACUS11 KWNS 212210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212209
TXZ000-212345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85...

VALID 212209Z - 212345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...MODEST CONVECTIVE SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL MAY STILL
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/ SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...THE DRYLINE APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.  THIS IS WHERE MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP...INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG HEATING...AND MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
MODERATELY LARGE MIXED LAYER CAPE.  SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH
35-40 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

LATEST WDSS-II MESH DATA SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST ONGOING CELLS ARE
PROBABLY PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND THIS THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING.  ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE...AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING APPEARS
WEAK...CLUSTERING OF STORMS WEST OF TEMPLE AND AUSTIN INTO THE
JUNCTION AREA MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH THAT CONSOLIDATION OF COLD POOLS
COULD BEGIN TO OCCUR AND SUPPORT THE UPSCALE GROWTH OF A MORE
ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER.  IF THIS OCCURS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
TENDENCY WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS THROUGH THE 00-02Z
TIME FRAME...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 04/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30880045 30819957 30999886 31129844 31339810 31839756
            32249745 32579682 32219619 31349693 30529734 29779790
            29519883 30040025 30600064 30880045






000
ACUS11 KWNS 212210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212209
TXZ000-212345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0377
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85...

VALID 212209Z - 212345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 85
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...MODEST CONVECTIVE SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL MAY STILL
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/ SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...THE DRYLINE APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.  THIS IS WHERE MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN RELATIVELY STEEP...INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG HEATING...AND MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
MODERATELY LARGE MIXED LAYER CAPE.  SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH
35-40 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

LATEST WDSS-II MESH DATA SUGGESTS THAT STRONGEST ONGOING CELLS ARE
PROBABLY PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND THIS THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING.  ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE...AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING APPEARS
WEAK...CLUSTERING OF STORMS WEST OF TEMPLE AND AUSTIN INTO THE
JUNCTION AREA MAY BE DENSE ENOUGH THAT CONSOLIDATION OF COLD POOLS
COULD BEGIN TO OCCUR AND SUPPORT THE UPSCALE GROWTH OF A MORE
ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER.  IF THIS OCCURS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
TENDENCY WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS THROUGH THE 00-02Z
TIME FRAME...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASING RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 04/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30880045 30819957 30999886 31129844 31339810 31839756
            32249745 32579682 32219619 31349693 30529734 29779790
            29519883 30040025 30600064 30880045





000
ACUS01 KWNS 212001
SWODY1
SPC AC 211959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN OK AND THE ARKLATEX
SWWD INTO CNTRL TX...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF THE
ARKLATEX REGION TO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...20Z UPDATE...
NEGLIGIBLE OUTLOOK CHANGES MADE WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE
PROBABILITIES. STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL TX/TX HILL COUNTRY TO
THE ARKLATEX VICINITY...WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
THROUGH THE EARLY OR MID-EVENING HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM
DETAILS...SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 376 AND SEVERE TSTM WATCH 85.

..GUYER.. 04/21/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THIS PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
RISE OVER THE RCKYS...DOWNSTREAM FROM FAIRLY POTENT/PROGRESSIVE UPR
LOW/TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. AS THIS OCCURS...THE LAST IN
A SERIES OF IMPULSES COMPRISING THE SRN PLNS SRN BRANCH TROUGH WILL
TRACK FROM CNTRL OK/N CNTRL TX ESE TO THE ARKLATEX THIS EVE...AND
INTO THE LWR MS VLY EARLY TUE. THE FEATURE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER
THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS.

FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AT THE SFC. THE MAIN FEATURES OF NOTE
AFFECTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE /1/ W-E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE
RED RVR AND /2/ SW-NE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE IN CNTRL TX. THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STNRY TODAY WHILE THE TROUGH ADVANCES
SE AND IS OVERTAKEN BY WEAK UPSTREAM COLD FRONT NOW OVER NW TX.

SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE...MAY POSE A RISK FOR
HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND FROM SRN OK AND THE ARKLATEX SWWD INTO
CNTRL TX THIS AFTN AND EVE.

...ARKLATEX/SRN OK SW INTO CNTRL TX...
TSTMS SHOULD FORM ALONG STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RVR
THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING...MAXIMIZED SFC
CONVERGENCE...AND THE CONTINUED ESEWD ADVANCE OF OK UPR IMPULSE.
LATER IN THE DAY...MORE SCTD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR SWWD IN ZONE
OF WEAKER CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH.

WHILE BUOYANCY WILL NOT BE EXTREME /AFTN MLCAPE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 500 J/KG IN SRN OK TO ABOVE 1500 J/KG IN CNTRL TX/...IT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL GIVEN
RELATIVELY COOL MID-LVL TEMPERATURES WITH UPR TROUGH. AND...WHILE
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY MODEST AS THE
UPR IMPULSE WEAKENS...30-35 KT WNWLY DEEP SHEAR SHOULD FOSTER SOME
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE.

THE OVERALL SETUP APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR STRONG MULTICELLS
THAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SHOULD MERGE INTO ESE
TO SE-MOVING CLUSTERS WITH HAIL AND EMBEDDED SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND OVER N CNTRL/NE TX. THE STORMS MAY REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MORE DISCRETE SWWD ALONG TROUGH/DRY LINE...WHERE ONE OR TWO
COULD EXHIBIT TRANSIENT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 212001
SWODY1
SPC AC 211959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN OK AND THE ARKLATEX
SWWD INTO CNTRL TX...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF THE
ARKLATEX REGION TO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...20Z UPDATE...
NEGLIGIBLE OUTLOOK CHANGES MADE WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE
PROBABILITIES. STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL TX/TX HILL COUNTRY TO
THE ARKLATEX VICINITY...WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
THROUGH THE EARLY OR MID-EVENING HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM
DETAILS...SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 376 AND SEVERE TSTM WATCH 85.

..GUYER.. 04/21/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE AMPLIFIED THIS PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
RISE OVER THE RCKYS...DOWNSTREAM FROM FAIRLY POTENT/PROGRESSIVE UPR
LOW/TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. AS THIS OCCURS...THE LAST IN
A SERIES OF IMPULSES COMPRISING THE SRN PLNS SRN BRANCH TROUGH WILL
TRACK FROM CNTRL OK/N CNTRL TX ESE TO THE ARKLATEX THIS EVE...AND
INTO THE LWR MS VLY EARLY TUE. THE FEATURE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER
THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS.

FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AT THE SFC. THE MAIN FEATURES OF NOTE
AFFECTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE /1/ W-E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE
RED RVR AND /2/ SW-NE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE IN CNTRL TX. THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STNRY TODAY WHILE THE TROUGH ADVANCES
SE AND IS OVERTAKEN BY WEAK UPSTREAM COLD FRONT NOW OVER NW TX.

SCTD TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE...MAY POSE A RISK FOR
HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND FROM SRN OK AND THE ARKLATEX SWWD INTO
CNTRL TX THIS AFTN AND EVE.

...ARKLATEX/SRN OK SW INTO CNTRL TX...
TSTMS SHOULD FORM ALONG STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED RVR
THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING...MAXIMIZED SFC
CONVERGENCE...AND THE CONTINUED ESEWD ADVANCE OF OK UPR IMPULSE.
LATER IN THE DAY...MORE SCTD DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR SWWD IN ZONE
OF WEAKER CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH.

WHILE BUOYANCY WILL NOT BE EXTREME /AFTN MLCAPE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 500 J/KG IN SRN OK TO ABOVE 1500 J/KG IN CNTRL TX/...IT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SVR HAIL GIVEN
RELATIVELY COOL MID-LVL TEMPERATURES WITH UPR TROUGH. AND...WHILE
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY MODEST AS THE
UPR IMPULSE WEAKENS...30-35 KT WNWLY DEEP SHEAR SHOULD FOSTER SOME
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE.

THE OVERALL SETUP APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR STRONG MULTICELLS
THAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SHOULD MERGE INTO ESE
TO SE-MOVING CLUSTERS WITH HAIL AND EMBEDDED SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND OVER N CNTRL/NE TX. THE STORMS MAY REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MORE DISCRETE SWWD ALONG TROUGH/DRY LINE...WHERE ONE OR TWO
COULD EXHIBIT TRANSIENT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.






000
ACUS11 KWNS 211926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211925
TXZ000-212130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0376
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211925Z - 212130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL TX
ATTM...AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.  WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELD
INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX VICINITY /SE OF SJT-NE OF
JCT/...NEAR THE ADVANCING COOL FRONT WHERE HEATING OF THE MODESTLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS YIELDED A ZONE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE.  THOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK
AND THUS DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXPLOSIVE...STORMS --
ALREADY ONGOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO -- ARE
FORECAST TO INITIATE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TX IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.  WITH TIME...DEVELOPMENT SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD THE DFW METROPLEX...WHERE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS BEING
HINDERED A BIT BY LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

AS STORMS INITIATE...LOCAL UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH AMPLE SHEAR /AIDED
BY AROUND 30 KT WLYS AT MID LEVELS/.  WHILE MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO
RISK...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS EVIDENT ALONG WITH RISK FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- WHICH SUGGEST POSSIBILITY THAT WW WILL BE
REQUIRED.

..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 04/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30619879 30489971 30940065 31590027 32339866 32879805
            33399740 33489588 33039548 31399643 30619879





000
ACUS11 KWNS 211926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211925
TXZ000-212130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0376
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211925Z - 212130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL TX
ATTM...AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.  WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELD
INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX VICINITY /SE OF SJT-NE OF
JCT/...NEAR THE ADVANCING COOL FRONT WHERE HEATING OF THE MODESTLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS YIELDED A ZONE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE.  THOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK
AND THUS DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXPLOSIVE...STORMS --
ALREADY ONGOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO -- ARE
FORECAST TO INITIATE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TX IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.  WITH TIME...DEVELOPMENT SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD THE DFW METROPLEX...WHERE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS BEING
HINDERED A BIT BY LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

AS STORMS INITIATE...LOCAL UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH AMPLE SHEAR /AIDED
BY AROUND 30 KT WLYS AT MID LEVELS/.  WHILE MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO
RISK...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS EVIDENT ALONG WITH RISK FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- WHICH SUGGEST POSSIBILITY THAT WW WILL BE
REQUIRED.

..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 04/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30619879 30489971 30940065 31590027 32339866 32879805
            33399740 33489588 33039548 31399643 30619879





000
ACUS11 KWNS 211926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211925
TXZ000-212130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0376
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211925Z - 212130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL TX
ATTM...AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.  WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELD
INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TX VICINITY /SE OF SJT-NE OF
JCT/...NEAR THE ADVANCING COOL FRONT WHERE HEATING OF THE MODESTLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS YIELDED A ZONE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE.  THOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK
AND THUS DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXPLOSIVE...STORMS --
ALREADY ONGOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO -- ARE
FORECAST TO INITIATE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TX IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO.  WITH TIME...DEVELOPMENT SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD THE DFW METROPLEX...WHERE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS BEING
HINDERED A BIT BY LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

AS STORMS INITIATE...LOCAL UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH AMPLE SHEAR /AIDED
BY AROUND 30 KT WLYS AT MID LEVELS/.  WHILE MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES SHOULD LIMIT TORNADO
RISK...POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS EVIDENT ALONG WITH RISK FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- WHICH SUGGEST POSSIBILITY THAT WW WILL BE
REQUIRED.

..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 04/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30619879 30489971 30940065 31590027 32339866 32879805
            33399740 33489588 33039548 31399643 30619879






000
ACUS02 KWNS 211731
SWODY2
SPC AC 211729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY FORM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NORTHWEST
KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SEMI-AMPLIFIED/MODESTLY PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL EXIST
OVER THE CONUS TUESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES ON TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND MUCH OF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...AN ADDITIONAL UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
NEARING THE WEST COAST WILL OVERSPREAD THE GREAT BASIN...REACHING
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
HEIGHT FALLS/INFLUENCES OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED GREAT
BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. A MODEST INCREASE IN PW VALUES SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE /AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY/ WILL NONETHELESS
REMAIN QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION /LOWER 40S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AT MOST DURING PEAK HEATING/.

AS A LEE TROUGH SHARPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SUFFICIENT
FORCING/MIXING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST FOR ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...EITHER IN VICINITY
OF THE LEE TROUGH AND/OR SPREADING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WHILE
BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN WEAK...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE PRESENCE
OF A STRENGTHENING MID-HIGH LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES MAY ACCOUNT
FOR SOME HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THINKING IS THAT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET...ALTHOUGH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN
CONVECTION AFTER DARK EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

...SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE A FEW
STRONGER TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR/POOR LAPSE
RATES WILL LIKELY TEMPER THE RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS.

..GUYER.. 04/21/2014





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