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000
ACUS01 KWNS 270043
SWODY1
SPC AC 270041

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..DARROW.. 11/27/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 270043
SWODY1
SPC AC 270041

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..DARROW.. 11/27/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 262100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262059
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-270300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND DOWNEAST MAINE...NRN NH AND VT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 262059Z - 270300Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO EXPAND NEWD INTO NRN PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND. RATES INITIALLY OF 1-2 INCH PER HR ARE LIKELY...AND
MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HR NEAR THE COAST AFTER 23Z.

DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS FROM 20Z INDICATE RAPID COOLING OF
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 3 HRS OWING TO WET-BULB EFFECTS...NOW
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION. BROAD ZONE
OF LOW-MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE CO-LOCATED WITH A PLUME OF SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR /ESTIMATED AT 0.7-0.8 INCH NEAR THE COAST/ CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A SWATH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL EXTENDING
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER THIS EVENING...AS UPSTREAM MIDLEVEL
WAVE PIVOTS NEWD WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC UPLIFT OCCURRING. 2-3 INCHES PER HR MAY
BECOME COMMON DURING THE 23Z-03Z TIME PERIOD ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS
OF MAINE. LONG-DURATION NATURE OF THE EVENT COUPLED WITH A PERIOD OF
INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY SNOW
EVENT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

..ROGERS.. 11/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON   44736703 44106877 43317027 43277057 43597202 44157324
            44887263 44957142 45686900 45946779 45746779 45456732
            44736703





000
ACUS11 KWNS 262100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262059
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-270300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND DOWNEAST MAINE...NRN NH AND VT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 262059Z - 270300Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO EXPAND NEWD INTO NRN PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND. RATES INITIALLY OF 1-2 INCH PER HR ARE LIKELY...AND
MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HR NEAR THE COAST AFTER 23Z.

DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS FROM 20Z INDICATE RAPID COOLING OF
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 3 HRS OWING TO WET-BULB EFFECTS...NOW
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION. BROAD ZONE
OF LOW-MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE CO-LOCATED WITH A PLUME OF SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR /ESTIMATED AT 0.7-0.8 INCH NEAR THE COAST/ CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A SWATH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL EXTENDING
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER THIS EVENING...AS UPSTREAM MIDLEVEL
WAVE PIVOTS NEWD WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC UPLIFT OCCURRING. 2-3 INCHES PER HR MAY
BECOME COMMON DURING THE 23Z-03Z TIME PERIOD ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS
OF MAINE. LONG-DURATION NATURE OF THE EVENT COUPLED WITH A PERIOD OF
INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY SNOW
EVENT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

..ROGERS.. 11/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON   44736703 44106877 43317027 43277057 43597202 44157324
            44887263 44957142 45686900 45946779 45746779 45456732
            44736703






000
ACUS11 KWNS 262100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262059
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-270300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1957
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND DOWNEAST MAINE...NRN NH AND VT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 262059Z - 270300Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO EXPAND NEWD INTO NRN PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND. RATES INITIALLY OF 1-2 INCH PER HR ARE LIKELY...AND
MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HR NEAR THE COAST AFTER 23Z.

DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS FROM 20Z INDICATE RAPID COOLING OF
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST 3 HRS OWING TO WET-BULB EFFECTS...NOW
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION. BROAD ZONE
OF LOW-MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE CO-LOCATED WITH A PLUME OF SEASONABLY
MOIST AIR /ESTIMATED AT 0.7-0.8 INCH NEAR THE COAST/ CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A SWATH OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL EXTENDING
FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER THIS EVENING...AS UPSTREAM MIDLEVEL
WAVE PIVOTS NEWD WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW
AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC UPLIFT OCCURRING. 2-3 INCHES PER HR MAY
BECOME COMMON DURING THE 23Z-03Z TIME PERIOD ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS
OF MAINE. LONG-DURATION NATURE OF THE EVENT COUPLED WITH A PERIOD OF
INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY SNOW
EVENT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

..ROGERS.. 11/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON   44736703 44106877 43317027 43277057 43597202 44157324
            44887263 44957142 45686900 45946779 45746779 45456732
            44736703





000
ACUS01 KWNS 261910
SWODY1
SPC AC 261908

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MORE GENERAL AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY SUCH ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN SPARSE.

...DISCUSSION...

A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE A WEAK BUT SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP NWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AROUND
700 MB. COVERAGE OF ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VERY LIMITED.

..DIAL.. 11/26/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NNEWD
TO JUST OFF THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTS NEWD FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS ERN NC/SE VA WITH
LINGERING BUOYANCY /ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE/ NEAR THE LOW.  FARTHER
S...THE THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS TO BE ENDING IN S FL WITH COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  OTHERWISE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE PAC NW COAST AND THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 261910
SWODY1
SPC AC 261908

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MORE GENERAL AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY SUCH ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN SPARSE.

...DISCUSSION...

A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE A WEAK BUT SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER ALOFT
WILL DEVELOP NWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AROUND
700 MB. COVERAGE OF ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VERY LIMITED.

..DIAL.. 11/26/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NNEWD
TO JUST OFF THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTS NEWD FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS ERN NC/SE VA WITH
LINGERING BUOYANCY /ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE/ NEAR THE LOW.  FARTHER
S...THE THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS TO BE ENDING IN S FL WITH COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  OTHERWISE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE PAC NW COAST AND THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION.






000
ACUS02 KWNS 261716
SWODY2
SPC AC 261715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY.

...NW WA...

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A SERIES OF
PROGRESSIVE IMPULSES WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.

...ELSEWHERE...

A LARGE AREA OF CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ERN STATES
PROMOTING OFFSHORE WINDS OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS AND
STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.

..DIAL.. 11/26/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 261716
SWODY2
SPC AC 261715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY.

...NW WA...

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A SERIES OF
PROGRESSIVE IMPULSES WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
IN THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.

...ELSEWHERE...

A LARGE AREA OF CP HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ERN STATES
PROMOTING OFFSHORE WINDS OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS AND
STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.

..DIAL.. 11/26/2014





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261650
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261650
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-262115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1956
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN PA...SERN NY...FAR NWRN NJ...NWRN
CT...WRN AND CENTRAL MA...SRN VT AND SRN NH

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 261650Z - 262115Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES /AT LEAST 1 INCH PER HOUR/ ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN A 70-90 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM ERN PA
THROUGH SERN NY TO WRN/CENTRAL MA AND DEVELOP INTO SRN VT/NH THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED RAPID COOLING
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED FROM NERN PA TO WRN MA...LIKELY DUE TO WET-BULB
EFFECTS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES FROM SW-NE.
 SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AT OR BELOW
32 ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL MA AND SRN NH THIS AFTERNOON.

FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA ALONG THE TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD FROM THE
SRN APPALACHIANS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG UVVS SHOULD
OCCUR WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHILE FURTHER ENHANCEMENT
TO SNOWFALL RATES MAY RESULT FROM AGGREGATE PROCESSES WITHIN AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.

..PETERS.. 11/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LWX...

LAT...LON   40687528 39777645 39707692 39847738 40287740 41197692
            42197586 42547514 43397299 43887097 42927151 42437190
            42087280 41477394 40687528






000
ACUS11 KWNS 261650
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261650
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-262115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1956
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN PA...SERN NY...FAR NWRN NJ...NWRN
CT...WRN AND CENTRAL MA...SRN VT AND SRN NH

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 261650Z - 262115Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES /AT LEAST 1 INCH PER HOUR/ ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN A 70-90 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM ERN PA
THROUGH SERN NY TO WRN/CENTRAL MA AND DEVELOP INTO SRN VT/NH THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED RAPID COOLING
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED FROM NERN PA TO WRN MA...LIKELY DUE TO WET-BULB
EFFECTS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES FROM SW-NE.
 SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AT OR BELOW
32 ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL MA AND SRN NH THIS AFTERNOON.

FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA ALONG THE TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD FROM THE
SRN APPALACHIANS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG UVVS SHOULD
OCCUR WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHILE FURTHER ENHANCEMENT
TO SNOWFALL RATES MAY RESULT FROM AGGREGATE PROCESSES WITHIN AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.

..PETERS.. 11/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LWX...

LAT...LON   40687528 39777645 39707692 39847738 40287740 41197692
            42197586 42547514 43397299 43887097 42927151 42437190
            42087280 41477394 40687528





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261650
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261650
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-262115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1956
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN PA...SERN NY...FAR NWRN NJ...NWRN
CT...WRN AND CENTRAL MA...SRN VT AND SRN NH

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 261650Z - 262115Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES /AT LEAST 1 INCH PER HOUR/ ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN A 70-90 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM ERN PA
THROUGH SERN NY TO WRN/CENTRAL MA AND DEVELOP INTO SRN VT/NH THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED RAPID COOLING
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED FROM NERN PA TO WRN MA...LIKELY DUE TO WET-BULB
EFFECTS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES FROM SW-NE.
 SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AT OR BELOW
32 ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL MA AND SRN NH THIS AFTERNOON.

FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE FROM SW-NE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA ALONG THE TRACK OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD FROM THE
SRN APPALACHIANS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG UVVS SHOULD
OCCUR WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHILE FURTHER ENHANCEMENT
TO SNOWFALL RATES MAY RESULT FROM AGGREGATE PROCESSES WITHIN AN
ISOTHERMAL LAYER AT LOW LEVELS.

..PETERS.. 11/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LWX...

LAT...LON   40687528 39777645 39707692 39847738 40287740 41197692
            42197586 42547514 43397299 43887097 42927151 42437190
            42087280 41477394 40687528





000
ACUS01 KWNS 261619
SWODY1
SPC AC 261617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1017 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NNEWD
TO JUST OFF THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTS NEWD FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS ERN NC/SE VA WITH
LINGERING BUOYANCY /ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE/ NEAR THE LOW.  FARTHER
S...THE THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS TO BE ENDING IN S FL WITH COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  OTHERWISE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE PAC NW COAST AND THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION.

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 11/26/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 261619
SWODY1
SPC AC 261617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1017 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE NC OUTER BANKS WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NNEWD
TO JUST OFF THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTS NEWD FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS ERN NC/SE VA WITH
LINGERING BUOYANCY /ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE/ NEAR THE LOW.  FARTHER
S...THE THUNDERSTORM RISK APPEARS TO BE ENDING IN S FL WITH COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  OTHERWISE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE PAC NW COAST AND THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION.

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 11/26/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 261329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261328
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-261730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1955
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN VA / ERN AND NERN WV / S-CNTRL PA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 261328Z - 261730Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING.  THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES WILL INITIAL BE CONFINED TO
LOCALIZED AREAS BUT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE MID-LATE
MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...13Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE 32 DEG F ISOTHERM
INVOF THE VA/WV BORDER NEAR AND W OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY NEWD INTO
WRN MD AND S-CNTRL PA.  OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THE AREA AOB
FREEZING BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH TIME AS HEAVIER PRECIP RATES
AND WET-BULB COOLING CONTRIBUTE TO COOLING PROCESSES NEAR THE
SURFACE.  THE 12Z RNK RAOB SHOWED THE TEMP PROFILE NEAR OR BELOW 0
DEG C FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...SUPPORTIVE OF
SNOW P-TYPE.  FARTHER NE...THE 12Z IAD RAOB SHOWED A TEMP PROFILE
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE SURFACE-1 KM LAYER.

MODELS INDICATE H7-H5 UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO MAXIMIZE OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 16Z WITH A SHIFT NWD NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE AFTER 16Z.  MODELS SHOW THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE /-12 TO -17 DEG C/ TO OVERLAP WITH STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND THIS WILL LIKELY FAVOR HEAVIER PRECIP
RATES.  A FURTHER EXPANSION IN AREA OF NEAR-SURFACE TEMPS AOB 32 DEG
WILL FAVOR SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES
WILL BECOME MORE COMMON THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.

..SMITH.. 11/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   40337868 40647810 40717761 40437742 40047762 39307833
            38627904 37168024 37148068 37318084 39527941 40337868





000
ACUS11 KWNS 261329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261328
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-261730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1955
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN VA / ERN AND NERN WV / S-CNTRL PA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 261328Z - 261730Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING.  THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES WILL INITIAL BE CONFINED TO
LOCALIZED AREAS BUT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE MID-LATE
MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...13Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE 32 DEG F ISOTHERM
INVOF THE VA/WV BORDER NEAR AND W OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY NEWD INTO
WRN MD AND S-CNTRL PA.  OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THE AREA AOB
FREEZING BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH TIME AS HEAVIER PRECIP RATES
AND WET-BULB COOLING CONTRIBUTE TO COOLING PROCESSES NEAR THE
SURFACE.  THE 12Z RNK RAOB SHOWED THE TEMP PROFILE NEAR OR BELOW 0
DEG C FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...SUPPORTIVE OF
SNOW P-TYPE.  FARTHER NE...THE 12Z IAD RAOB SHOWED A TEMP PROFILE
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE SURFACE-1 KM LAYER.

MODELS INDICATE H7-H5 UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO MAXIMIZE OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 16Z WITH A SHIFT NWD NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE AFTER 16Z.  MODELS SHOW THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE /-12 TO -17 DEG C/ TO OVERLAP WITH STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND THIS WILL LIKELY FAVOR HEAVIER PRECIP
RATES.  A FURTHER EXPANSION IN AREA OF NEAR-SURFACE TEMPS AOB 32 DEG
WILL FAVOR SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES
WILL BECOME MORE COMMON THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.

..SMITH.. 11/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   40337868 40647810 40717761 40437742 40047762 39307833
            38627904 37168024 37148068 37318084 39527941 40337868






000
ACUS11 KWNS 261329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261328
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-261730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1955
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN VA / ERN AND NERN WV / S-CNTRL PA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 261328Z - 261730Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING.  THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES WILL INITIAL BE CONFINED TO
LOCALIZED AREAS BUT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE MID-LATE
MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...13Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE 32 DEG F ISOTHERM
INVOF THE VA/WV BORDER NEAR AND W OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY NEWD INTO
WRN MD AND S-CNTRL PA.  OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THE AREA AOB
FREEZING BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH TIME AS HEAVIER PRECIP RATES
AND WET-BULB COOLING CONTRIBUTE TO COOLING PROCESSES NEAR THE
SURFACE.  THE 12Z RNK RAOB SHOWED THE TEMP PROFILE NEAR OR BELOW 0
DEG C FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...SUPPORTIVE OF
SNOW P-TYPE.  FARTHER NE...THE 12Z IAD RAOB SHOWED A TEMP PROFILE
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE SURFACE-1 KM LAYER.

MODELS INDICATE H7-H5 UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO MAXIMIZE OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 16Z WITH A SHIFT NWD NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE AFTER 16Z.  MODELS SHOW THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE /-12 TO -17 DEG C/ TO OVERLAP WITH STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND THIS WILL LIKELY FAVOR HEAVIER PRECIP
RATES.  A FURTHER EXPANSION IN AREA OF NEAR-SURFACE TEMPS AOB 32 DEG
WILL FAVOR SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES
WILL BECOME MORE COMMON THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.

..SMITH.. 11/26/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   40337868 40647810 40717761 40437742 40047762 39307833
            38627904 37168024 37148068 37318084 39527941 40337868





000
ACUS01 KWNS 261249
SWODY1
SPC AC 261248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS THROUGH THE MORNING.

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS WILL
DEAMPLIFY AND TREND TOWARDS A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. COASTAL SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NNEWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD.
CONUS TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO THIS SURFACE CYCLONE AS IT
BRUSHES THE OUTER BANKS...OR ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD
ACROSS S FL.

...OUTER BANKS/COASTAL NC...
12Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACE THE LOW NEAR ILM WITH ONLY MODERATE
PRESSURE FALLS NWD ACROSS COASTAL NC AND THE DELMARVA. AS SUCH...THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
WITH LITTLE TO NO PENETRATION OF THE WARM SECTOR ONSHORE IN NC /WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE OUTER BANKS/. 12Z MHX SOUNDING REVEALED AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED TSTMS BUT THE LACK OF
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY MINIMAL.

...S FL PENINSULA...
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE COLD FRONT FROM JUST NW OF PBI SWWD TO
EYW. ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE
ALSO LIMITING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..MOSIER.. 11/26/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 261249
SWODY1
SPC AC 261248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS THROUGH THE MORNING.

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS WILL
DEAMPLIFY AND TREND TOWARDS A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. COASTAL SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NNEWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD.
CONUS TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO THIS SURFACE CYCLONE AS IT
BRUSHES THE OUTER BANKS...OR ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD
ACROSS S FL.

...OUTER BANKS/COASTAL NC...
12Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACE THE LOW NEAR ILM WITH ONLY MODERATE
PRESSURE FALLS NWD ACROSS COASTAL NC AND THE DELMARVA. AS SUCH...THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
WITH LITTLE TO NO PENETRATION OF THE WARM SECTOR ONSHORE IN NC /WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE OUTER BANKS/. 12Z MHX SOUNDING REVEALED AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED TSTMS BUT THE LACK OF
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY MINIMAL.

...S FL PENINSULA...
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE COLD FRONT FROM JUST NW OF PBI SWWD TO
EYW. ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE
ALSO LIMITING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..MOSIER.. 11/26/2014





000
ACUS03 KWNS 260726
SWODY3
SPC AC 260724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN STATES WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY AS WEST TO NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN STATES. AT THE SFC...MINIMAL MOISTURE
RETURN WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS AS A SFC HIGH
MOVES EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SFC HIGH WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. FOR THIS REASON...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 11/26/2014





000
ACUS03 KWNS 260726
SWODY3
SPC AC 260724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NERN STATES WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY AS WEST TO NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN STATES. AT THE SFC...MINIMAL MOISTURE
RETURN WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS AS A SFC HIGH
MOVES EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE SFC HIGH WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. FOR THIS REASON...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 11/26/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 260558
SWODY1
SPC AC 260557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS THROUGH THE MORNING.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARD A
SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED REGIME THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. PHASING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STEADY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL EARLY
TODAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE RELEGATED TO SOUTH FL AND
THE COASTAL NC VICINITY.

...COASTAL NC...
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE WARM SECTOR WILL LARGELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH STEADY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN VICINITY OF THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COASTAL FRONT/WARM SECTOR TO
AT LEAST GRAZE THE OUTER BANKS OF NC THIS MORNING. THIS EXPECTED
FRONTAL/STABLE THERMODYNAMIC SCENARIO SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL NONETHELESS
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

...SOUTH FL...
BANDS OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY
AN EASTWARD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY ENDING BY LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT ACCELERATES OFFSHORE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY TODAY /12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND/ WILL LIKELY
BE MITIGATED BY THE FRONTAL TIMING/VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A
MODEST AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER INHIBITION.

..GUYER/LEITMAN.. 11/26/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 260558
SWODY1
SPC AC 260557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS THROUGH THE MORNING.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARD A
SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED REGIME THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. PHASING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STEADY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL EARLY
TODAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE RELEGATED TO SOUTH FL AND
THE COASTAL NC VICINITY.

...COASTAL NC...
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE WARM SECTOR WILL LARGELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE...ALTHOUGH STEADY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN VICINITY OF THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COASTAL FRONT/WARM SECTOR TO
AT LEAST GRAZE THE OUTER BANKS OF NC THIS MORNING. THIS EXPECTED
FRONTAL/STABLE THERMODYNAMIC SCENARIO SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL NONETHELESS
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

...SOUTH FL...
BANDS OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY
AN EASTWARD-PROGRESSING COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY ENDING BY LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT ACCELERATES OFFSHORE.
SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY TODAY /12Z WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND/ WILL LIKELY
BE MITIGATED BY THE FRONTAL TIMING/VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A
MODEST AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER INHIBITION.

..GUYER/LEITMAN.. 11/26/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 260556
SWODY2
SPC AC 260555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION
AND SRN ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON THURSDAY AS WEST TO NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP
DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS...LIMITING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 11/26/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 260102
SWODY1
SPC AC 260100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

...FL PENINSULA...
AN UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AT EARLY
EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF A COLD FRONT...BANDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND/ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA TONIGHT. WHILE THE
FRONT-PRECEDING AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST...A NOCTURNALLY COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TEND TO HINDER UPDRAFT INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A
STRONG WIND GUST/BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED.

..GUYER.. 11/26/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 260102
SWODY1
SPC AC 260100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.

...FL PENINSULA...
AN UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AT EARLY
EVENING...WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF A COLD FRONT...BANDS OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND/ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA TONIGHT. WHILE THE
FRONT-PRECEDING AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST...A NOCTURNALLY COOLING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TEND TO HINDER UPDRAFT INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A
STRONG WIND GUST/BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED.

..GUYER.. 11/26/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 252000
SWODY1
SPC AC 251958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL FL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL THROUGH SCNTRL FL...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

...CNTRL FL...

WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK OVER CNTRL FL WHERE STORMS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM NCNTRL FL WWD INTO
THE ERN GULF. OTHER MORE DISCRETE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CNTRL INTO SRN FL ALONG A N-S
ORIENTED CONVERGENCE ZONE. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE DESTABILIZING WARM
SECTOR MIGHT PROMOTE AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY
INTO EARLY EVENING. DEEP-LAYER WINDS ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY WITH
40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND SMALL 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS. DESPITE SOME
INCREASE IN THE LLJ EXPECTED THIS EVENING...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE
SHOULD REMAIN MODEST AS THE SFC LOW EVOLVES NNE OF THE INLAND WARM
SECTOR WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF NEAR-SFC BACKING.
NEVERTHELESS...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED STRUCTURES IN THE LINE INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND TRANSIENT
BOWING SEGMENTS. SOME OF THE DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY ALSO DEVELOP UPDRAFT ROTATION.

..DIAL.. 11/25/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

...CENTRAL FL THROUGH TONIGHT...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/N FL WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS
EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY NEWD TO JUST OFF THE CAROLINAS BY
26/12Z...AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER S TX ACCELERATES
ENEWD.  RICH MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL/S FL WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS UP TO THE MID 70S AND PW VALUES AOA 2 INCHES.
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP...BUT SOME SURFACE HEATING S OF
THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/BUOYANCY GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL FL WILL
HELP BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 1500 J/KG.

THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT/MODERATE BUOYANCY AND WEAK ASCENT WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
FL...AND TONIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS THE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE NE
OF FL.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS UNLIKELY TO
INCREASE MUCH THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN THE PRIMARY CYCLOGENESIS AND
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE EXPECTED OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST.
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER RISKS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 252000
SWODY1
SPC AC 251958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL FL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL THROUGH SCNTRL FL...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

...CNTRL FL...

WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK OVER CNTRL FL WHERE STORMS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM NCNTRL FL WWD INTO
THE ERN GULF. OTHER MORE DISCRETE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS CNTRL INTO SRN FL ALONG A N-S
ORIENTED CONVERGENCE ZONE. MOIST INFLOW FROM THE DESTABILIZING WARM
SECTOR MIGHT PROMOTE AT LEAST A MODEST INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY
INTO EARLY EVENING. DEEP-LAYER WINDS ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY WITH
40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND SMALL 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS. DESPITE SOME
INCREASE IN THE LLJ EXPECTED THIS EVENING...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE
SHOULD REMAIN MODEST AS THE SFC LOW EVOLVES NNE OF THE INLAND WARM
SECTOR WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF NEAR-SFC BACKING.
NEVERTHELESS...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED STRUCTURES IN THE LINE INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND TRANSIENT
BOWING SEGMENTS. SOME OF THE DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY ALSO DEVELOP UPDRAFT ROTATION.

..DIAL.. 11/25/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

...CENTRAL FL THROUGH TONIGHT...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/N FL WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS
EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY NEWD TO JUST OFF THE CAROLINAS BY
26/12Z...AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER S TX ACCELERATES
ENEWD.  RICH MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL/S FL WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS UP TO THE MID 70S AND PW VALUES AOA 2 INCHES.
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP...BUT SOME SURFACE HEATING S OF
THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/BUOYANCY GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL FL WILL
HELP BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 1500 J/KG.

THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT/MODERATE BUOYANCY AND WEAK ASCENT WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
FL...AND TONIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS THE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE NE
OF FL.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS UNLIKELY TO
INCREASE MUCH THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN THE PRIMARY CYCLOGENESIS AND
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE EXPECTED OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST.
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER RISKS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251913
FLZ000-252115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1954
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251913Z - 252115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE ERN GULF
OF MEXICO...AND THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL
FL. A WW MAY BE CONSIDERED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IF STORMS
STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE NEAR TAMPA AND VICINITY.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM
ALONG AND N OF A W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM JUST N OF TPA...TO
MCO...TO TTS ACROSS CNTRL FL. THESE STORMS POSE A VERY LIMITED RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THEY MOVE NWD INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. ALONG AND S OF THIS SFC BOUNDARY THE ATMOSPHERE IS
CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50KT WILL SUPPORT THE ORGANIZATION OF ANY
STORMS FORMING S OF THE BOUNDARY...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH 0-1KM SHEAR WEAKER AT 10-20KT...THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS
LIMITED.

SEMI-LINEAR CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE ERN
GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS A SFC LOW FORMS IN THE
SAME AREA....AND THESE STORMS ARE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE W-CNTRL FL
COAST. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGEST THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY
EVENTUALLY POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF
W-CNTRL FL.

..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 11/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   28238283 28468248 28398196 27528127 27098170 27238263
            27858291 28238283





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251913
FLZ000-252115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1954
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251913Z - 252115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE ERN GULF
OF MEXICO...AND THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL
FL. A WW MAY BE CONSIDERED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IF STORMS
STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE NEAR TAMPA AND VICINITY.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM
ALONG AND N OF A W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM JUST N OF TPA...TO
MCO...TO TTS ACROSS CNTRL FL. THESE STORMS POSE A VERY LIMITED RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THEY MOVE NWD INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. ALONG AND S OF THIS SFC BOUNDARY THE ATMOSPHERE IS
CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50KT WILL SUPPORT THE ORGANIZATION OF ANY
STORMS FORMING S OF THE BOUNDARY...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH 0-1KM SHEAR WEAKER AT 10-20KT...THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS
LIMITED.

SEMI-LINEAR CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE ERN
GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS A SFC LOW FORMS IN THE
SAME AREA....AND THESE STORMS ARE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE W-CNTRL FL
COAST. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGEST THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY
EVENTUALLY POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF
W-CNTRL FL.

..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 11/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   28238283 28468248 28398196 27528127 27098170 27238263
            27858291 28238283





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251913
FLZ000-252115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1954
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251913Z - 252115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE ERN GULF
OF MEXICO...AND THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL
FL. A WW MAY BE CONSIDERED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IF STORMS
STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE NEAR TAMPA AND VICINITY.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM
ALONG AND N OF A W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARY FROM JUST N OF TPA...TO
MCO...TO TTS ACROSS CNTRL FL. THESE STORMS POSE A VERY LIMITED RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THEY MOVE NWD INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. ALONG AND S OF THIS SFC BOUNDARY THE ATMOSPHERE IS
CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY BETWEEN 500-1500 J/KG.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50KT WILL SUPPORT THE ORGANIZATION OF ANY
STORMS FORMING S OF THE BOUNDARY...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH 0-1KM SHEAR WEAKER AT 10-20KT...THE TORNADO THREAT REMAINS
LIMITED.

SEMI-LINEAR CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE ERN
GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS A SFC LOW FORMS IN THE
SAME AREA....AND THESE STORMS ARE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE W-CNTRL FL
COAST. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUGGEST THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY
EVENTUALLY POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF
W-CNTRL FL.

..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 11/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   28238283 28468248 28398196 27528127 27098170 27238263
            27858291 28238283






000
ACUS02 KWNS 251727
SWODY2
SPC AC 251726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER TX WITHIN BASE OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SERN STATES EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY
BEFORE REACHING THE NERN U.S. LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SFC LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT LOCATED OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND DEEPEN
AS IT CONTINUES NWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NERN U.S. COASTS IN
RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SRN FL PENINSULA LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...NC OUTER BANKS...

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT
THERE IS SOME CHANCE A VERY SMALL WARM SECTOR COULD MOVE ONTO THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR CAPE HATTERAS IN ADVANCE OF THE
DEEPENING SFC LOW. IN EITHER CASE...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SHALLOW
CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT WEST OF THE
STALLED FRONT. HOWEVER...THE UNSTABLE LAYER MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THIS BOUNDARY ALONG A
PORTION OF THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

...SRN FL...

A SMALL PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
OVER SRN FL AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES RAPIDLY SEWD AND OFFSHORE.

..DIAL.. 11/25/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 251727
SWODY2
SPC AC 251726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER TX WITHIN BASE OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SERN STATES EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY
BEFORE REACHING THE NERN U.S. LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SFC LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT LOCATED OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AND DEEPEN
AS IT CONTINUES NWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NERN U.S. COASTS IN
RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SRN FL PENINSULA LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...NC OUTER BANKS...

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT
THERE IS SOME CHANCE A VERY SMALL WARM SECTOR COULD MOVE ONTO THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR CAPE HATTERAS IN ADVANCE OF THE
DEEPENING SFC LOW. IN EITHER CASE...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SHALLOW
CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT WEST OF THE
STALLED FRONT. HOWEVER...THE UNSTABLE LAYER MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THIS BOUNDARY ALONG A
PORTION OF THE OUTER BANKS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

...SRN FL...

A SMALL PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH WEAK INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
OVER SRN FL AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES RAPIDLY SEWD AND OFFSHORE.

..DIAL.. 11/25/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 251623
SWODY1
SPC AC 251621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF N AND S FL
ADJACENT TO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

...CENTRAL FL THROUGH TONIGHT...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/N FL WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS
EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY NEWD TO JUST OFF THE CAROLINAS BY
26/12Z...AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER S TX ACCELERATES
ENEWD.  RICH MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL/S FL WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS UP TO THE MID 70S AND PW VALUES AOA 2 INCHES.
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP...BUT SOME SURFACE HEATING S OF
THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/BUOYANCY GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL FL WILL
HELP BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 1500 J/KG.

THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT/MODERATE BUOYANCY AND WEAK ASCENT WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
FL...AND TONIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS THE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE NE
OF FL.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS UNLIKELY TO
INCREASE MUCH THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN THE PRIMARY CYCLOGENESIS AND
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE EXPECTED OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST.
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER RISKS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON/GLEASON.. 11/25/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 251623
SWODY1
SPC AC 251621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF N AND S FL
ADJACENT TO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

...CENTRAL FL THROUGH TONIGHT...
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/N FL WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS
EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY NEWD TO JUST OFF THE CAROLINAS BY
26/12Z...AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER S TX ACCELERATES
ENEWD.  RICH MOISTURE IS PRESENT ACROSS CENTRAL/S FL WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS UP TO THE MID 70S AND PW VALUES AOA 2 INCHES.
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP...BUT SOME SURFACE HEATING S OF
THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/BUOYANCY GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL FL WILL
HELP BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES TO NEAR 1500 J/KG.

THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT/MODERATE BUOYANCY AND WEAK ASCENT WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL
FL...AND TONIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS THE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE NE
OF FL.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS UNLIKELY TO
INCREASE MUCH THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN THE PRIMARY CYCLOGENESIS AND
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE EXPECTED OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST.
ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER RISKS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON/GLEASON.. 11/25/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251524
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251523
FLZ000-251700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0923 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251523Z - 251700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TSTM CLUSTER WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO.  GIVEN LIMITED SPATIOTEMPORAL ASPECTS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 16-1630Z AND
LACK OF ADDITIONAL ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...WATCH
ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN TPA/MLB WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SOME
ORGANIZATION /WITH SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS/ OF A STORM IN WEST
CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY.  THIS STORM IS LOCATED ALONG A RELATIVELY
WEAK WSW-ENE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA /FROM JUST NORTH OF TPA TO NEAR 35 N
MLB /AROUND TITUSVILLE FL//.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT AND
0-3 KM EFFECTIVE SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2 SUGGEST THIS STORM IS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD MAINTAIN STORM ORGANIZATION.  HOWEVER...THE
PRESENCE OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGESTS COVERAGE FOR
ADDITIONAL ROBUST STORMS WILL BE LOW IN THE SHORT TERM.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 11/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...

LAT...LON   28588146 28828143 29108083 28718057 28518063 28348094
            28328127 28588146





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251524
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251523
FLZ000-251700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0923 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251523Z - 251700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TSTM CLUSTER WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO.  GIVEN LIMITED SPATIOTEMPORAL ASPECTS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 16-1630Z AND
LACK OF ADDITIONAL ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...WATCH
ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN TPA/MLB WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SOME
ORGANIZATION /WITH SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS/ OF A STORM IN WEST
CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY.  THIS STORM IS LOCATED ALONG A RELATIVELY
WEAK WSW-ENE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA /FROM JUST NORTH OF TPA TO NEAR 35 N
MLB /AROUND TITUSVILLE FL//.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT AND
0-3 KM EFFECTIVE SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2 SUGGEST THIS STORM IS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD MAINTAIN STORM ORGANIZATION.  HOWEVER...THE
PRESENCE OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGESTS COVERAGE FOR
ADDITIONAL ROBUST STORMS WILL BE LOW IN THE SHORT TERM.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 11/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...

LAT...LON   28588146 28828143 29108083 28718057 28518063 28348094
            28328127 28588146





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251524
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251523
FLZ000-251700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1953
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0923 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251523Z - 251700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TSTM CLUSTER WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA LATE THIS MORNING...WITH A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO.  GIVEN LIMITED SPATIOTEMPORAL ASPECTS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 16-1630Z AND
LACK OF ADDITIONAL ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...WATCH
ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN TPA/MLB WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SOME
ORGANIZATION /WITH SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS/ OF A STORM IN WEST
CENTRAL ORANGE COUNTY.  THIS STORM IS LOCATED ALONG A RELATIVELY
WEAK WSW-ENE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA /FROM JUST NORTH OF TPA TO NEAR 35 N
MLB /AROUND TITUSVILLE FL//.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT AND
0-3 KM EFFECTIVE SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2 SUGGEST THIS STORM IS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD MAINTAIN STORM ORGANIZATION.  HOWEVER...THE
PRESENCE OF MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGESTS COVERAGE FOR
ADDITIONAL ROBUST STORMS WILL BE LOW IN THE SHORT TERM.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 11/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...

LAT...LON   28588146 28828143 29108083 28718057 28518063 28348094
            28328127 28588146






000
ACUS01 KWNS 251256
SWODY1
SPC AC 251254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

...SYNOPSIS...

A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER SRN BC/AB INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WILL
PROGRESS SEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...PROMPTING THE EWD TRANSLATION
OF A DOWNSTREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES AND
NRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN THE PARENT
LONG-WAVE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE
SERN U.S. BY 26/12Z.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE WILL MATERIALIZE OVER THE NERN
GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WITH THIS FEATURE RE-DEVELOPING OFF THE GA/SC
COAST THIS EVENING...PRIOR TO MOVING NWD ALONG THE SHELF WATERS OFF
THE NC COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES TODAY
WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT ACCELERATING EWD/SEWD THROUGH
THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NRN/CNTRL FL PENINSULA WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW.

...FL...

TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS ACROSS THE CNTRL PENINSULA ALONG AN APPARENT WEAK WARM
FRONT OBSERVABLE IN METAR DATA. 12Z SOUNDINGS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWEST 100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS
OF 16-18 G/KG. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG...DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH
THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO
THE MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW SHOULD AID IN ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG
EXISTING SYNOPTIC AND SUB-SYNOPTIC-SCALE BOUNDARIES. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE CAPPING WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PENINSULA TODAY.
SUFFICIENT /40-50 KT/ DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER-SCALE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST/LOW-LCL
BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LATER TODAY INTO
EVENING SUGGEST A LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR A TORNADO.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 1952.

THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH STORMS WHICH MAY ALIGN INTO A BROKEN BAND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE REGION.

...NC OUTER BANKS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...

SLIGHT VARIATION REMAINS AMONG RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WHICH WILL DEVELOP NWD JUST OFF
THE COAST. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...HOWEVER TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
INCLUSION OF LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES.

..MEAD/MOSIER.. 11/25/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 251256
SWODY1
SPC AC 251254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

...SYNOPSIS...

A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER SRN BC/AB INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WILL
PROGRESS SEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...PROMPTING THE EWD TRANSLATION
OF A DOWNSTREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES AND
NRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN THE PARENT
LONG-WAVE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE
SERN U.S. BY 26/12Z.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE WILL MATERIALIZE OVER THE NERN
GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WITH THIS FEATURE RE-DEVELOPING OFF THE GA/SC
COAST THIS EVENING...PRIOR TO MOVING NWD ALONG THE SHELF WATERS OFF
THE NC COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES TODAY
WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT ACCELERATING EWD/SEWD THROUGH
THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NRN/CNTRL FL PENINSULA WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW.

...FL...

TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS ACROSS THE CNTRL PENINSULA ALONG AN APPARENT WEAK WARM
FRONT OBSERVABLE IN METAR DATA. 12Z SOUNDINGS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWEST 100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS
OF 16-18 G/KG. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
SUPPORT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG...DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH
THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...THE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE TO
THE MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW SHOULD AID IN ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG
EXISTING SYNOPTIC AND SUB-SYNOPTIC-SCALE BOUNDARIES. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE CAPPING WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PENINSULA TODAY.
SUFFICIENT /40-50 KT/ DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER-SCALE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. WHILE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST/LOW-LCL
BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LATER TODAY INTO
EVENING SUGGEST A LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR A TORNADO.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 1952.

THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH STORMS WHICH MAY ALIGN INTO A BROKEN BAND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE REGION.

...NC OUTER BANKS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...

SLIGHT VARIATION REMAINS AMONG RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO
THE TRACK OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE WHICH WILL DEVELOP NWD JUST OFF
THE COAST. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...HOWEVER TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
INCLUSION OF LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES.

..MEAD/MOSIER.. 11/25/2014





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251138
FLZ000-251315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1952
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251138Z - 251315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORM ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER
THE I-4 CORRIDOR IN THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA WITH A CORRESPONDING
UPTICK IN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SINGLE SITE IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN A
STEADY INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES.  THE
STORMS OVER MANATEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES ARE INVOF A WEAK BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMP/DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEG F TO
THE N AND MID 70S IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS TO THE S OF THE STORMS.  A
STRENGTHENING IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT
KMLB DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS...WITH BACKING NEAR-SURFACE WINDS
CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENLARGEMENT IN HODOGRAPHS /200 M2 PER S2 0-1 KM
SRH/.  GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /REF. 00Z MFL RAOB/
CHARACTERIZED BY A 17 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO AND MODERATE
BUOYANCY...STORM ORGANIZATION INTO SUPERCELLS IS POSSIBLE WITH A
LOW...BUT NOT INSIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT.  WHILE A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   27708273 28938087 27998053 26908236 27708273





000
ACUS11 KWNS 251139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251138
FLZ000-251315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1952
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251138Z - 251315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORM ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER
THE I-4 CORRIDOR IN THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA WITH A CORRESPONDING
UPTICK IN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SINGLE SITE IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN A
STEADY INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES.  THE
STORMS OVER MANATEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES ARE INVOF A WEAK BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMP/DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEG F TO
THE N AND MID 70S IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS TO THE S OF THE STORMS.  A
STRENGTHENING IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT
KMLB DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS...WITH BACKING NEAR-SURFACE WINDS
CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENLARGEMENT IN HODOGRAPHS /200 M2 PER S2 0-1 KM
SRH/.  GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /REF. 00Z MFL RAOB/
CHARACTERIZED BY A 17 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO AND MODERATE
BUOYANCY...STORM ORGANIZATION INTO SUPERCELLS IS POSSIBLE WITH A
LOW...BUT NOT INSIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT.  WHILE A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   27708273 28938087 27998053 26908236 27708273






000
ACUS11 KWNS 251139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251138
FLZ000-251315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1952
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251138Z - 251315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORM ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER
THE I-4 CORRIDOR IN THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA WITH A CORRESPONDING
UPTICK IN A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SINGLE SITE IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN A
STEADY INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES.  THE
STORMS OVER MANATEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES ARE INVOF A WEAK BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMP/DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 DEG F TO
THE N AND MID 70S IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS TO THE S OF THE STORMS.  A
STRENGTHENING IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT
KMLB DURING THE PAST 2-3 HOURS...WITH BACKING NEAR-SURFACE WINDS
CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENLARGEMENT IN HODOGRAPHS /200 M2 PER S2 0-1 KM
SRH/.  GIVEN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /REF. 00Z MFL RAOB/
CHARACTERIZED BY A 17 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO AND MODERATE
BUOYANCY...STORM ORGANIZATION INTO SUPERCELLS IS POSSIBLE WITH A
LOW...BUT NOT INSIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT.  WHILE A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/25/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   27708273 28938087 27998053 26908236 27708273





000
ACUS03 KWNS 250718
SWODY3
SPC AC 250717

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOCKED IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 11/25/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 250718
SWODY3
SPC AC 250717

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOCKED IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 11/25/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 250554
SWODY2
SPC AC 250553

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. ON
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO
THE ERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY SWD
ACROSS SOUTH FL WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CONUS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 11/25/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 250554
SWODY2
SPC AC 250553

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. ON
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO
THE ERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY SWD
ACROSS SOUTH FL WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CONUS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 11/25/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 250551
SWODY1
SPC AC 250550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OTHER PARTS OF THE
COASTAL SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...HIGHLIGHTED BY THE AMPLIFICATION/EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO FL AND
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD
OF AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WELL WEST OF
THE REGION INITIALLY...WEAK UPPER HEIGHT TENDENCIES ARE EXPECTED
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OTHERWISE PREVAILING. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ONLY A SLOW
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA...WITH THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE MOVING INLAND/DEVELOPING
ALONG OUTFLOW AND POSSIBLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON.

A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
AROUND 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...PREVALENT CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY LIMIT
MLCAPE TO 500-1250 J/KG MLCAPE...WITH THE STRONGEST HEATING
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.
WHERE STORMS MATURE/INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON...MODEST BUOYANCY
AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /40-50 KT/ WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME BOWS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IF POCKETS
OF LOCALLY STRONGER HEATING ALLOWS FOR SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF /SOUTHEAST/ THE MORE PREVALENT LINEAR SEGMENTS.

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MARGINAL GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMIC LIMITATIONS
AND LATE PERIOD ARRIVAL OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
FL WILL BE REEVALUATED LATER THIS MORNING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE.

..GUYER/LEITMAN.. 11/25/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 250551
SWODY1
SPC AC 250550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OTHER PARTS OF THE
COASTAL SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...HIGHLIGHTED BY THE AMPLIFICATION/EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO FL AND
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD
OF AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WELL WEST OF
THE REGION INITIALLY...WEAK UPPER HEIGHT TENDENCIES ARE EXPECTED
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OTHERWISE PREVAILING. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ONLY A SLOW
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA...WITH THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE MOVING INLAND/DEVELOPING
ALONG OUTFLOW AND POSSIBLY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON.

A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
AROUND 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...PREVALENT CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY LIMIT
MLCAPE TO 500-1250 J/KG MLCAPE...WITH THE STRONGEST HEATING
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.
WHERE STORMS MATURE/INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON...MODEST BUOYANCY
AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /40-50 KT/ WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME BOWS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IF POCKETS
OF LOCALLY STRONGER HEATING ALLOWS FOR SEMI-DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF /SOUTHEAST/ THE MORE PREVALENT LINEAR SEGMENTS.

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MARGINAL GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMIC LIMITATIONS
AND LATE PERIOD ARRIVAL OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
FL WILL BE REEVALUATED LATER THIS MORNING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE.

..GUYER/LEITMAN.. 11/25/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 250057
SWODY1
SPC AC 250055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND OTHER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES.

...NORTH FL/COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES...
SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION NEAR/EAST OF A COLD FRONT /AND NEAR PRIOR
OUTFLOW/. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL GENERALLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OTHERWISE SLOWLY COOLS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RELATIVELY STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW...A
FEW STRONG STORMS/SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT
TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA OR SOUTHEAST
GA. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY
LAYER INHIBITION.

..GUYER.. 11/25/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 250057
SWODY1
SPC AC 250055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND OTHER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES.

...NORTH FL/COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES...
SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION NEAR/EAST OF A COLD FRONT /AND NEAR PRIOR
OUTFLOW/. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL GENERALLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OTHERWISE SLOWLY COOLS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
RELATIVELY STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW...A
FEW STRONG STORMS/SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT
TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA OR SOUTHEAST
GA. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY
LAYER INHIBITION.

..GUYER.. 11/25/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 241956
SWODY1
SPC AC 241955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE THROUGH
SRN GA INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST NEXT
FEW HOURS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.

...DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. CONVECTION INCLUDING A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING GENERALLY ALONG AND IN WAKE OF
A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE ERN
CAROLINAS. ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
DEEP LAYER WINDS...BUT CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ARE VERY MARGINAL...AND
BOTH OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INVERSION AROUND
600 MB. THESE FACTORS SHOULD REMAIN DETRIMENTAL TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER
SEVERE THREAT. NEVERTHELESS A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PARTICULARLY IN
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NRN FL/SRN GA.

..DIAL.. 11/24/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH THAT IS NOW ESTABLISHED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS.
THE STRONGEST JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH
VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE A
SEPARATE WAVE MOVES ESEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SRN PLAINS.
THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED NNEWD TO THE N OF
LAKE HURON...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY.  THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE MUCH SLOWER TO THE E
ACROSS AL/GA/SRN APPALACHIANS...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS.

...UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...
ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE PRIMARY UPPER JET STREAK...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL LIFT ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT...IS
SUPPORTING A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/N CENTRAL
OH.  THE DEPTH AND VIGOR OF THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING
OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING HAS
DECREASED.  STILL...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH SHALLOW
CONVECTION COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NE OH...NW PA...AND WRN NY.

...NE GULF COAST TO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG THE GRADIENT IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/BUOYANCY FROM THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE TO SE GA.
THOUGH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO THE E-SE OF THE
CONVECTION /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/...12Z SOUNDINGS
REVEALED POOR LAPSE RATE PROFILES FROM THE SURFACE TO ALMOST 500 MB.
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED CELLS/LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THE BAND.  HOWEVER...LIMITED
SURFACE HEATING...POOR LAPSE RATE PROFILES ALOFT...AND A TENDENCY
FOR WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH TIME SHOULD KEEP THE DAMAGING
WIND RISK IN THE MARGINAL CATEGORY.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 241956
SWODY1
SPC AC 241955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE THROUGH
SRN GA INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST NEXT
FEW HOURS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.

...DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. CONVECTION INCLUDING A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING GENERALLY ALONG AND IN WAKE OF
A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE ERN
CAROLINAS. ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
DEEP LAYER WINDS...BUT CAPE AND LAPSE RATES ARE VERY MARGINAL...AND
BOTH OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INVERSION AROUND
600 MB. THESE FACTORS SHOULD REMAIN DETRIMENTAL TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A GREATER
SEVERE THREAT. NEVERTHELESS A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PARTICULARLY IN
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NRN FL/SRN GA.

..DIAL.. 11/24/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH THAT IS NOW ESTABLISHED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS.
THE STRONGEST JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH
VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE A
SEPARATE WAVE MOVES ESEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SRN PLAINS.
THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED NNEWD TO THE N OF
LAKE HURON...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY.  THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE MUCH SLOWER TO THE E
ACROSS AL/GA/SRN APPALACHIANS...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS.

...UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...
ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE PRIMARY UPPER JET STREAK...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL LIFT ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT...IS
SUPPORTING A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/N CENTRAL
OH.  THE DEPTH AND VIGOR OF THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING
OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING HAS
DECREASED.  STILL...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH SHALLOW
CONVECTION COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NE OH...NW PA...AND WRN NY.

...NE GULF COAST TO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG THE GRADIENT IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/BUOYANCY FROM THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE TO SE GA.
THOUGH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO THE E-SE OF THE
CONVECTION /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/...12Z SOUNDINGS
REVEALED POOR LAPSE RATE PROFILES FROM THE SURFACE TO ALMOST 500 MB.
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED CELLS/LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THE BAND.  HOWEVER...LIMITED
SURFACE HEATING...POOR LAPSE RATE PROFILES ALOFT...AND A TENDENCY
FOR WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH TIME SHOULD KEEP THE DAMAGING
WIND RISK IN THE MARGINAL CATEGORY.






000
ACUS02 KWNS 241729
SWODY2
SPC AC 241728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NCNTRL THROUGH CNTRL FL...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S. WILL
PERSIST AND ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER TROUGH BASE AND
THROUGH THE NRN GULF AND SERN STATES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD SWWD THROUGH NRN FL INTO THE NRN GULF. A WEAK SFC
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK NEWD THROUGH
NRN FL TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE
LOW-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

...NORTH CNTRL AND CNTRL FL...

A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN THE
FL PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY INDICATES A
PLUME OF HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER CNTRL MEXICO INTO THE
WRN GULF THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECT NEWD. DESPITE THE PRESENCE
OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES WITH
MLCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG LIKELY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE OVER NRN FL...AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY. THE
SLY LLJ WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE OVER NRN FL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW REMAINING IN POST
FRONTAL REGIME. NEVERTHELESS...DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN AOA
40 KT IN NRN PORTION OF WARM SECTOR...SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT A MARGINAL RISK ALSO EXISTS FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AS THE LLJ INCREASES. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
IMPACTS OF ANY EARLY DAY WARM SECTOR CONVECTION ON WHAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE AN OVERALL MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PRECLUDES ANY
CATEGORICAL UPGRADE AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 11/24/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 241729
SWODY2
SPC AC 241728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NCNTRL THROUGH CNTRL FL...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S. WILL
PERSIST AND ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER TROUGH BASE AND
THROUGH THE NRN GULF AND SERN STATES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD SWWD THROUGH NRN FL INTO THE NRN GULF. A WEAK SFC
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK NEWD THROUGH
NRN FL TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE
LOW-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

...NORTH CNTRL AND CNTRL FL...

A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN THE
FL PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY INDICATES A
PLUME OF HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER CNTRL MEXICO INTO THE
WRN GULF THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECT NEWD. DESPITE THE PRESENCE
OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES WITH
MLCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG LIKELY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE OVER NRN FL...AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY. THE
SLY LLJ WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE OVER NRN FL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW REMAINING IN POST
FRONTAL REGIME. NEVERTHELESS...DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN AOA
40 KT IN NRN PORTION OF WARM SECTOR...SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT A MARGINAL RISK ALSO EXISTS FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AS THE LLJ INCREASES. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
IMPACTS OF ANY EARLY DAY WARM SECTOR CONVECTION ON WHAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE AN OVERALL MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PRECLUDES ANY
CATEGORICAL UPGRADE AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 11/24/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 241624
SWODY1
SPC AC 241623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL
FL PANHANDLE NEWD TO THE ERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.  OTHER
STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST OHIO TO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH THAT IS NOW ESTABLISHED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS.
THE STRONGEST JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH
VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE A
SEPARATE WAVE MOVES ESEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SRN PLAINS.
THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED NNEWD TO THE N OF
LAKE HURON...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY.  THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE MUCH SLOWER TO THE E
ACROSS AL/GA/SRN APPALACHIANS...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS.

...UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...
ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE PRIMARY UPPER JET STREAK...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL LIFT ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT...IS
SUPPORTING A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/N CENTRAL
OH.  THE DEPTH AND VIGOR OF THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING
OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING HAS
DECREASED.  STILL...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH SHALLOW
CONVECTION COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NE OH...NW PA...AND WRN NY.

...NE GULF COAST TO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG THE GRADIENT IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/BUOYANCY FROM THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE TO SE GA.
THOUGH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO THE E-SE OF THE
CONVECTION /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/...12Z SOUNDINGS
REVEALED POOR LAPSE RATE PROFILES FROM THE SURFACE TO ALMOST 500 MB.
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED CELLS/LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THE BAND.  HOWEVER...LIMITED
SURFACE HEATING...POOR LAPSE RATE PROFILES ALOFT...AND A TENDENCY
FOR WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH TIME SHOULD KEEP THE DAMAGING
WIND RISK IN THE MARGINAL CATEGORY.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 11/24/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 241624
SWODY1
SPC AC 241623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL
FL PANHANDLE NEWD TO THE ERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.  OTHER
STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST OHIO TO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH THAT IS NOW ESTABLISHED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS.
THE STRONGEST JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH
VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE A
SEPARATE WAVE MOVES ESEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SRN PLAINS.
THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED NNEWD TO THE N OF
LAKE HURON...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY.  THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE MUCH SLOWER TO THE E
ACROSS AL/GA/SRN APPALACHIANS...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS.

...UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...
ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE PRIMARY UPPER JET STREAK...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL LIFT ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT...IS
SUPPORTING A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/N CENTRAL
OH.  THE DEPTH AND VIGOR OF THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING
OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING HAS
DECREASED.  STILL...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH SHALLOW
CONVECTION COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NE OH...NW PA...AND WRN NY.

...NE GULF COAST TO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG THE GRADIENT IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/BUOYANCY FROM THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE TO SE GA.
THOUGH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO THE E-SE OF THE
CONVECTION /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/...12Z SOUNDINGS
REVEALED POOR LAPSE RATE PROFILES FROM THE SURFACE TO ALMOST 500 MB.
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED CELLS/LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THE BAND.  HOWEVER...LIMITED
SURFACE HEATING...POOR LAPSE RATE PROFILES ALOFT...AND A TENDENCY
FOR WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH TIME SHOULD KEEP THE DAMAGING
WIND RISK IN THE MARGINAL CATEGORY.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 11/24/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 241517
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241517
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-241745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0917 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST NEW YORK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241517Z - 241745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...WITH LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING...WILL
CROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS
IT SPREADS NE. A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS CONTINUE SPREADING NE
WITHIN BROADLY CONFLUENT FLOW PRECEDING A FRONT ANALYZED FROM
CENTRAL LOWER MI TO NWRN KY. AS THE SECOND VORT MAX IN A SERIES OF
THREE TRAINING MIDLEVEL PERTURBATIONS LIFTS INTO SWRN
ONTARIO...STRONGER ASCENT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC FEATURES WILL
PROGRESS RAPIDLY NEWD...WITH CONVECTION SPREADING NE INTO THE
AFTERNOON -- REACHING COLUMBUS AND CLEVELAND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
HOWEVER...AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL DCVA SPREADS NE OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A LOW-TOPPED
REGIME. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY THE RECENT...RAPID DECREASE IN
LIGHTNING COVERAGE IN NWRN/N-CNTRL OHIO...ALONG WITH A NOTABLE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SAMPLED BY THE 12Z WILMINGTON OHIO RAOB JUST
BELOW THE 700-MB LEVEL. THE PRESENCE OF PRE-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S WILL SUPPORT A DEARTH OF BUOYANCY -- MLCAPE OF 100-300
J/KG WITH EL TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -20C. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW -- E.G. 60-70 KT SWLYS SAMPLED BY THE WILMINGTON AND
CLEVELAND OHIO VWPS AT 1 KM AGL WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY
MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE PAUCITY OF
BUOYANCY/DEARTH OF MOISTURE...AND LAGGING STRONGER
FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS...SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER SVR-TSTM
RISK FROM OCCURRING.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   41298251 41618170 41978056 42407931 40598014 39728192
            39588338 40298333 41298251





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241517
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241517
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-241745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0917 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST NEW YORK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241517Z - 241745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...WITH LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING...WILL
CROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS
IT SPREADS NE. A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS CONTINUE SPREADING NE
WITHIN BROADLY CONFLUENT FLOW PRECEDING A FRONT ANALYZED FROM
CENTRAL LOWER MI TO NWRN KY. AS THE SECOND VORT MAX IN A SERIES OF
THREE TRAINING MIDLEVEL PERTURBATIONS LIFTS INTO SWRN
ONTARIO...STRONGER ASCENT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC FEATURES WILL
PROGRESS RAPIDLY NEWD...WITH CONVECTION SPREADING NE INTO THE
AFTERNOON -- REACHING COLUMBUS AND CLEVELAND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
HOWEVER...AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL DCVA SPREADS NE OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A LOW-TOPPED
REGIME. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY THE RECENT...RAPID DECREASE IN
LIGHTNING COVERAGE IN NWRN/N-CNTRL OHIO...ALONG WITH A NOTABLE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SAMPLED BY THE 12Z WILMINGTON OHIO RAOB JUST
BELOW THE 700-MB LEVEL. THE PRESENCE OF PRE-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S WILL SUPPORT A DEARTH OF BUOYANCY -- MLCAPE OF 100-300
J/KG WITH EL TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -20C. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW -- E.G. 60-70 KT SWLYS SAMPLED BY THE WILMINGTON AND
CLEVELAND OHIO VWPS AT 1 KM AGL WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY
MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE PAUCITY OF
BUOYANCY/DEARTH OF MOISTURE...AND LAGGING STRONGER
FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS...SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER SVR-TSTM
RISK FROM OCCURRING.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   41298251 41618170 41978056 42407931 40598014 39728192
            39588338 40298333 41298251






000
ACUS11 KWNS 241517
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241517
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-241745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0917 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST NEW YORK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241517Z - 241745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION...WITH LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING...WILL
CROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS
IT SPREADS NE. A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS CONTINUE SPREADING NE
WITHIN BROADLY CONFLUENT FLOW PRECEDING A FRONT ANALYZED FROM
CENTRAL LOWER MI TO NWRN KY. AS THE SECOND VORT MAX IN A SERIES OF
THREE TRAINING MIDLEVEL PERTURBATIONS LIFTS INTO SWRN
ONTARIO...STRONGER ASCENT AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC FEATURES WILL
PROGRESS RAPIDLY NEWD...WITH CONVECTION SPREADING NE INTO THE
AFTERNOON -- REACHING COLUMBUS AND CLEVELAND IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
HOWEVER...AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL DCVA SPREADS NE OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A LOW-TOPPED
REGIME. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY THE RECENT...RAPID DECREASE IN
LIGHTNING COVERAGE IN NWRN/N-CNTRL OHIO...ALONG WITH A NOTABLE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SAMPLED BY THE 12Z WILMINGTON OHIO RAOB JUST
BELOW THE 700-MB LEVEL. THE PRESENCE OF PRE-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S WILL SUPPORT A DEARTH OF BUOYANCY -- MLCAPE OF 100-300
J/KG WITH EL TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -20C. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW -- E.G. 60-70 KT SWLYS SAMPLED BY THE WILMINGTON AND
CLEVELAND OHIO VWPS AT 1 KM AGL WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY
MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE PAUCITY OF
BUOYANCY/DEARTH OF MOISTURE...AND LAGGING STRONGER
FRONTAL/BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS...SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER SVR-TSTM
RISK FROM OCCURRING.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   41298251 41618170 41978056 42407931 40598014 39728192
            39588338 40298333 41298251





000
ACUS01 KWNS 241255
SWODY1
SPC AC 241253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE OH
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

...SYNOPSIS...

A LONG-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL
SHORTEN IN WAVELENGTH AND AMPLIFY DUE IN PART TO THE EWD DEVELOPMENT
OF AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN...A SIGNIFICANT /100-120 KT/ JET STREAK AT 500 MB WILL
DEVELOP FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO NERN U.S. IN TANDEM WITH A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. ON ITS HEELS...PHASING OF SEPARATE
VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL OCCUR OVER THE SRN ROCKIES INTO LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO LOWERING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER
CNTRL AND SRN TX.

AT THE SURFACE...A DEEP CYCLONE OVER THE U.P. OF MI WILL DEVELOP
NEWD THROUGH WRN INTO NRN QUEBEC WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES
EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE SWRN EXTENSION
OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES TOWARD THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST.

...NERN GULF COAST TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A SW-NE-ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS HAS EVOLVED OVERNIGHT FROM THE CNTRL
FL PNHDL INTO SWRN GA ALONG AN APPARENT CONFLUENCE ZONE WITHIN THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT TLH AND CHS REVEALED THE
PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWEST 100-MB MEAN
MIXING RATIOS OF 14-15 G/KG. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
QUITE POOR WHICH WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH. NONETHELESS...LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ONGOING STORMS SHOULD PERSIST
TODAY...GRADUALLY EXPANDING NEWD ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN BY
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND PERHAPS A WEAK TORNADO OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY
STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD.

STORMS MAY TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THIS EVENING PRIOR TO RE-INTENSIFYING
LATER TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT IS ENHANCED BY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE LATE-NIGHT STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...OH VALLEY THIS MORNING...

MULTIPLE SHORT CONVECTIVE LINE-SEGMENTS AND WEAK SUPERCELLS ARE IN
PROGRESS AS OF 12Z OVER CNTRL AND SRN IND WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SITUATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 100+ KT MID-LEVEL
JET STREAK AND WITHIN A ZONE A DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER CNTRL IL. STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS HAVE
RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED AS HAS SOME MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF AN ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /REF. 12Z
ILN SOUNDING/...THE COMBINATION OF A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD AND AT
LEAST MODEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUSTAIN SOME EMBEDDED BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES --AND AN ASSOCIATED
WIND DAMAGE THREAT-- THROUGH THIS MORNING.

..MEAD/MOSIER.. 11/24/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 241255
SWODY1
SPC AC 241253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE OH
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

...SYNOPSIS...

A LONG-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL
SHORTEN IN WAVELENGTH AND AMPLIFY DUE IN PART TO THE EWD DEVELOPMENT
OF AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN...A SIGNIFICANT /100-120 KT/ JET STREAK AT 500 MB WILL
DEVELOP FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO NERN U.S. IN TANDEM WITH A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. ON ITS HEELS...PHASING OF SEPARATE
VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL OCCUR OVER THE SRN ROCKIES INTO LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO LOWERING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER
CNTRL AND SRN TX.

AT THE SURFACE...A DEEP CYCLONE OVER THE U.P. OF MI WILL DEVELOP
NEWD THROUGH WRN INTO NRN QUEBEC WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES
EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE SWRN EXTENSION
OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES TOWARD THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST.

...NERN GULF COAST TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A SW-NE-ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS HAS EVOLVED OVERNIGHT FROM THE CNTRL
FL PNHDL INTO SWRN GA ALONG AN APPARENT CONFLUENCE ZONE WITHIN THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT TLH AND CHS REVEALED THE
PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWEST 100-MB MEAN
MIXING RATIOS OF 14-15 G/KG. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
QUITE POOR WHICH WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH. NONETHELESS...LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ONGOING STORMS SHOULD PERSIST
TODAY...GRADUALLY EXPANDING NEWD ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN BY
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND PERHAPS A WEAK TORNADO OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY
STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD.

STORMS MAY TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THIS EVENING PRIOR TO RE-INTENSIFYING
LATER TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT IS ENHANCED BY THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE LATE-NIGHT STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...OH VALLEY THIS MORNING...

MULTIPLE SHORT CONVECTIVE LINE-SEGMENTS AND WEAK SUPERCELLS ARE IN
PROGRESS AS OF 12Z OVER CNTRL AND SRN IND WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SITUATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 100+ KT MID-LEVEL
JET STREAK AND WITHIN A ZONE A DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER CNTRL IL. STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS HAVE
RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED AS HAS SOME MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF AN ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /REF. 12Z
ILN SOUNDING/...THE COMBINATION OF A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD AND AT
LEAST MODEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUSTAIN SOME EMBEDDED BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES --AND AN ASSOCIATED
WIND DAMAGE THREAT-- THROUGH THIS MORNING.

..MEAD/MOSIER.. 11/24/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 241008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241007
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-241130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PNHDL INTO SRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241007Z - 241130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
EXIST WITH TSTMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A NE-SW-ORIENTED BAND
OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED INLAND ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PNHDL WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORM LOCATED OVER WRN JACKSON COUNTY FL AS OF 1005Z.
ASIDE FROM WEAKLY CONFLUENT FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER...ITS UNCLEAR
AS TO WHETHER OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS ARE PROMOTING THIS STORM
DEVELOPMENT. TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE
STORMS FROM THE ERN FL PNHDL INTO SRN GA INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN DEWPOINTS WHICH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
BY THE QUITE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY 00Z RAOBS AND
PREDICTED BY NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS COULD PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK...GRADUALLY DEVELOPING NEWD WITH TIME INTO PORTIONS
OF SRN GA. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF
HIGH-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT WITHIN CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS.

..MEAD.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   30218579 30688551 31008531 31498481 32108394 32118334
            31958299 31718300 31368305 30668361 30288437 30038476
            29948498 30008535 30218579






000
ACUS11 KWNS 241008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241007
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-241130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PNHDL INTO SRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241007Z - 241130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
EXIST WITH TSTMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A NE-SW-ORIENTED BAND
OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED INLAND ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PNHDL WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORM LOCATED OVER WRN JACKSON COUNTY FL AS OF 1005Z.
ASIDE FROM WEAKLY CONFLUENT FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER...ITS UNCLEAR
AS TO WHETHER OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS ARE PROMOTING THIS STORM
DEVELOPMENT. TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE
STORMS FROM THE ERN FL PNHDL INTO SRN GA INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN DEWPOINTS WHICH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
BY THE QUITE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY 00Z RAOBS AND
PREDICTED BY NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS COULD PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK...GRADUALLY DEVELOPING NEWD WITH TIME INTO PORTIONS
OF SRN GA. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF
HIGH-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT WITHIN CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS.

..MEAD.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   30218579 30688551 31008531 31498481 32108394 32118334
            31958299 31718300 31368305 30668361 30288437 30038476
            29948498 30008535 30218579





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241007
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-241130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PNHDL INTO SRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241007Z - 241130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
EXIST WITH TSTMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A NE-SW-ORIENTED BAND
OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED INLAND ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PNHDL WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORM LOCATED OVER WRN JACKSON COUNTY FL AS OF 1005Z.
ASIDE FROM WEAKLY CONFLUENT FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER...ITS UNCLEAR
AS TO WHETHER OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS ARE PROMOTING THIS STORM
DEVELOPMENT. TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE
STORMS FROM THE ERN FL PNHDL INTO SRN GA INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN DEWPOINTS WHICH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
BY THE QUITE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY 00Z RAOBS AND
PREDICTED BY NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS COULD PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK...GRADUALLY DEVELOPING NEWD WITH TIME INTO PORTIONS
OF SRN GA. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF
HIGH-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT WITHIN CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS.

..MEAD.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   30218579 30688551 31008531 31498481 32108394 32118334
            31958299 31718300 31368305 30668361 30288437 30038476
            29948498 30008535 30218579






000
ACUS11 KWNS 241008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241007
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-241130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PNHDL INTO SRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241007Z - 241130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
EXIST WITH TSTMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A NE-SW-ORIENTED BAND
OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED INLAND ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PNHDL WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORM LOCATED OVER WRN JACKSON COUNTY FL AS OF 1005Z.
ASIDE FROM WEAKLY CONFLUENT FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER...ITS UNCLEAR
AS TO WHETHER OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS ARE PROMOTING THIS STORM
DEVELOPMENT. TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE
STORMS FROM THE ERN FL PNHDL INTO SRN GA INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN DEWPOINTS WHICH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
BY THE QUITE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY 00Z RAOBS AND
PREDICTED BY NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS COULD PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK...GRADUALLY DEVELOPING NEWD WITH TIME INTO PORTIONS
OF SRN GA. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF
HIGH-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT WITHIN CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS.

..MEAD.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   30218579 30688551 31008531 31498481 32108394 32118334
            31958299 31718300 31368305 30668361 30288437 30038476
            29948498 30008535 30218579





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241007
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-241130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PNHDL INTO SRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241007Z - 241130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
EXIST WITH TSTMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A NE-SW-ORIENTED BAND
OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED INLAND ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PNHDL WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORM LOCATED OVER WRN JACKSON COUNTY FL AS OF 1005Z.
ASIDE FROM WEAKLY CONFLUENT FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER...ITS UNCLEAR
AS TO WHETHER OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS ARE PROMOTING THIS STORM
DEVELOPMENT. TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE
STORMS FROM THE ERN FL PNHDL INTO SRN GA INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN DEWPOINTS WHICH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
BY THE QUITE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY 00Z RAOBS AND
PREDICTED BY NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS COULD PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK...GRADUALLY DEVELOPING NEWD WITH TIME INTO PORTIONS
OF SRN GA. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF
HIGH-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT WITHIN CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS.

..MEAD.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   30218579 30688551 31008531 31498481 32108394 32118334
            31958299 31718300 31368305 30668361 30288437 30038476
            29948498 30008535 30218579





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241007
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-241130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0407 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PNHDL INTO SRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241007Z - 241130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
EXIST WITH TSTMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A NE-SW-ORIENTED BAND
OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED INLAND ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PNHDL WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORM LOCATED OVER WRN JACKSON COUNTY FL AS OF 1005Z.
ASIDE FROM WEAKLY CONFLUENT FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER...ITS UNCLEAR
AS TO WHETHER OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS ARE PROMOTING THIS STORM
DEVELOPMENT. TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE
STORMS FROM THE ERN FL PNHDL INTO SRN GA INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN DEWPOINTS WHICH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
BY THE QUITE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY 00Z RAOBS AND
PREDICTED BY NAM/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS COULD PERSIST
THROUGH DAYBREAK...GRADUALLY DEVELOPING NEWD WITH TIME INTO PORTIONS
OF SRN GA. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF
HIGH-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT WITHIN CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS.

..MEAD.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   30218579 30688551 31008531 31498481 32108394 32118334
            31958299 31718300 31368305 30668361 30288437 30038476
            29948498 30008535 30218579





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241004
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-241130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IL / WRN KY / SW AND S-CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241004Z - 241130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...FAST-MOVING STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HINDERED BY WEAK
BUOYANCY BUT A STRONG WIND GUST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE
TSTM ACTIVITY RAPIDLY MOVES NEWD FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO
S-CNTRL IND.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SINGLE SITE 88D IMAGERY THE PAST FEW
HOURS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN REFLECTIVITY WITH VERY
WEAK SHEARED SIGNATURES WITH THE STRONGEST CORES.  MODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER SWRN IND SHOW SB-MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200-300 J/KG
WITH ALMOST ALL CAPE LOCATED BELOW 500 MB.  KVWX VAD SHOWS A VERY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM
ORGANIZATION.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN TEMPS RISING TO NEAR
60 WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA.

AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ROTATE NEWD THROUGH IL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...STRONG ASCENT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE IN
COMBINATION WITH UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT BY A MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
JET STREAK /100 KT AT H5/...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  WHILE THE LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SETUP
WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...IT IS PLAUSIBLE A FEW
OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY EXHIBIT TRANSIENT WEAK ROTATION AND A
STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   37558889 39188661 39228583 39088554 38838542 37358775
            37298827 37348860 37558889





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241004
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-241130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IL / WRN KY / SW AND S-CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241004Z - 241130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...FAST-MOVING STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HINDERED BY WEAK
BUOYANCY BUT A STRONG WIND GUST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE
TSTM ACTIVITY RAPIDLY MOVES NEWD FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO
S-CNTRL IND.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SINGLE SITE 88D IMAGERY THE PAST FEW
HOURS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN REFLECTIVITY WITH VERY
WEAK SHEARED SIGNATURES WITH THE STRONGEST CORES.  MODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER SWRN IND SHOW SB-MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200-300 J/KG
WITH ALMOST ALL CAPE LOCATED BELOW 500 MB.  KVWX VAD SHOWS A VERY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM
ORGANIZATION.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN TEMPS RISING TO NEAR
60 WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA.

AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ROTATE NEWD THROUGH IL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...STRONG ASCENT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE IN
COMBINATION WITH UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT BY A MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
JET STREAK /100 KT AT H5/...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  WHILE THE LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SETUP
WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...IT IS PLAUSIBLE A FEW
OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY EXHIBIT TRANSIENT WEAK ROTATION AND A
STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   37558889 39188661 39228583 39088554 38838542 37358775
            37298827 37348860 37558889






000
ACUS11 KWNS 241004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241004
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-241130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IL / WRN KY / SW AND S-CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241004Z - 241130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...FAST-MOVING STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HINDERED BY WEAK
BUOYANCY BUT A STRONG WIND GUST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE
TSTM ACTIVITY RAPIDLY MOVES NEWD FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO
S-CNTRL IND.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SINGLE SITE 88D IMAGERY THE PAST FEW
HOURS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN REFLECTIVITY WITH VERY
WEAK SHEARED SIGNATURES WITH THE STRONGEST CORES.  MODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER SWRN IND SHOW SB-MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200-300 J/KG
WITH ALMOST ALL CAPE LOCATED BELOW 500 MB.  KVWX VAD SHOWS A VERY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM
ORGANIZATION.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN TEMPS RISING TO NEAR
60 WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA.

AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ROTATE NEWD THROUGH IL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...STRONG ASCENT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE IN
COMBINATION WITH UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT BY A MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
JET STREAK /100 KT AT H5/...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  WHILE THE LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SETUP
WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...IT IS PLAUSIBLE A FEW
OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY EXHIBIT TRANSIENT WEAK ROTATION AND A
STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   37558889 39188661 39228583 39088554 38838542 37358775
            37298827 37348860 37558889





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241004
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-241130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IL / WRN KY / SW AND S-CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241004Z - 241130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...FAST-MOVING STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HINDERED BY WEAK
BUOYANCY BUT A STRONG WIND GUST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE
TSTM ACTIVITY RAPIDLY MOVES NEWD FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO
S-CNTRL IND.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SINGLE SITE 88D IMAGERY THE PAST FEW
HOURS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN REFLECTIVITY WITH VERY
WEAK SHEARED SIGNATURES WITH THE STRONGEST CORES.  MODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER SWRN IND SHOW SB-MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200-300 J/KG
WITH ALMOST ALL CAPE LOCATED BELOW 500 MB.  KVWX VAD SHOWS A VERY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM
ORGANIZATION.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN TEMPS RISING TO NEAR
60 WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA.

AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ROTATE NEWD THROUGH IL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...STRONG ASCENT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE IN
COMBINATION WITH UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT BY A MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
JET STREAK /100 KT AT H5/...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  WHILE THE LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SETUP
WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...IT IS PLAUSIBLE A FEW
OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY EXHIBIT TRANSIENT WEAK ROTATION AND A
STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   37558889 39188661 39228583 39088554 38838542 37358775
            37298827 37348860 37558889





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241004
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-241130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IL / WRN KY / SW AND S-CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241004Z - 241130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...FAST-MOVING STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HINDERED BY WEAK
BUOYANCY BUT A STRONG WIND GUST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE
TSTM ACTIVITY RAPIDLY MOVES NEWD FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO
S-CNTRL IND.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SINGLE SITE 88D IMAGERY THE PAST FEW
HOURS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN REFLECTIVITY WITH VERY
WEAK SHEARED SIGNATURES WITH THE STRONGEST CORES.  MODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER SWRN IND SHOW SB-MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200-300 J/KG
WITH ALMOST ALL CAPE LOCATED BELOW 500 MB.  KVWX VAD SHOWS A VERY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM
ORGANIZATION.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN TEMPS RISING TO NEAR
60 WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA.

AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ROTATE NEWD THROUGH IL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...STRONG ASCENT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE IN
COMBINATION WITH UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT BY A MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
JET STREAK /100 KT AT H5/...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  WHILE THE LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SETUP
WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...IT IS PLAUSIBLE A FEW
OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY EXHIBIT TRANSIENT WEAK ROTATION AND A
STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   37558889 39188661 39228583 39088554 38838542 37358775
            37298827 37348860 37558889





000
ACUS11 KWNS 241004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241004
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-241130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IL / WRN KY / SW AND S-CNTRL IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 241004Z - 241130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...FAST-MOVING STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HINDERED BY WEAK
BUOYANCY BUT A STRONG WIND GUST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE
TSTM ACTIVITY RAPIDLY MOVES NEWD FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO
S-CNTRL IND.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND SINGLE SITE 88D IMAGERY THE PAST FEW
HOURS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN REFLECTIVITY WITH VERY
WEAK SHEARED SIGNATURES WITH THE STRONGEST CORES.  MODIFIED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OVER SWRN IND SHOW SB-MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 200-300 J/KG
WITH ALMOST ALL CAPE LOCATED BELOW 500 MB.  KVWX VAD SHOWS A VERY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM
ORGANIZATION.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN TEMPS RISING TO NEAR
60 WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA.

AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ROTATE NEWD THROUGH IL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...STRONG ASCENT PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE IN
COMBINATION WITH UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT BY A MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL
JET STREAK /100 KT AT H5/...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.  WHILE THE LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SETUP
WILL SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...IT IS PLAUSIBLE A FEW
OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY EXHIBIT TRANSIENT WEAK ROTATION AND A
STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   37558889 39188661 39228583 39088554 38838542 37358775
            37298827 37348860 37558889






000
ACUS03 KWNS 240708
SWODY3
SPC AC 240707

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE U.S. ON WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN FL
PENINSULA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT BUT A SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED MAINLY DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 11/24/2014





000
ACUS03 KWNS 240708
SWODY3
SPC AC 240707

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE U.S. ON WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN FL
PENINSULA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT BUT A SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED MAINLY DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
NOT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 11/24/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 240550
SWODY2
SPC AC 240549

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL FL...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MO
VALLEY ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT FROM THE WRN
GULF COAST STATES NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO ADVANCE SWD ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA REACHING. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S F. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ENABLE SBCAPE
VALUES TO PEAK IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE BY THE MID AFTERNOON.
THIS COMBINED WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HAIL COULD ALSO
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS.

..BROYLES.. 11/24/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 240550
SWODY2
SPC AC 240549

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL FL...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MO
VALLEY ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT FROM THE WRN
GULF COAST STATES NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO ADVANCE SWD ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA REACHING. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S F. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ENABLE SBCAPE
VALUES TO PEAK IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE BY THE MID AFTERNOON.
THIS COMBINED WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HAIL COULD ALSO
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS.

..BROYLES.. 11/24/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 240541
SWODY1
SPC AC 240540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST GA  ACROSS THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS VICINITY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

...SYNOPSIS...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IMPACTING MUCH OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD WILL DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
BUILDS TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER
FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S...WHILE A SFC LOW OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS JAMES BAY. A TRAILING
SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG...ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEAST/COASTAL GA
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

ADDITIONAL SHALLOW CONVECTION/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AS AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

...SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...

A MOIST AIRMASS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 F. AS DAYTIME TEMPS WARM INTO
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 F...MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH
SBCAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG EXPECTED. WHILE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG...GENERALLY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND EVEN SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND FAST
STORM MOTION OF ANY CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP COMBINED WITH PW VALUES
NEAR 1.75 INCHES...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...

A BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY FORCED SHALLOW CONVECTION...PERHAPS WITH
LIMITED LIGHTNING POTENTIAL...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL IND/KY...AND QUICKLY TRACK EAST
ACROSS OH AND WRN KY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND AROUND 100-250 J/KG SBCAPE MAY BE ADEQUATE FOR SOME
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF 850 MB FLOW
/55-65 KT/ AND THE STRONG BACKGROUND PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW.

..LEITMAN/GUYER.. 11/24/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 240541
SWODY1
SPC AC 240540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST GA  ACROSS THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS VICINITY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

...SYNOPSIS...

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IMPACTING MUCH OF THE CONUS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD WILL DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE
BUILDS TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER
FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S...WHILE A SFC LOW OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS JAMES BAY. A TRAILING
SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG...ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEAST/COASTAL GA
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.

ADDITIONAL SHALLOW CONVECTION/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AS AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.

...SOUTHEAST GA THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...

A MOIST AIRMASS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 F. AS DAYTIME TEMPS WARM INTO
THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 F...MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH
SBCAPE VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG EXPECTED. WHILE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG...GENERALLY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND EVEN SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND FAST
STORM MOTION OF ANY CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP COMBINED WITH PW VALUES
NEAR 1.75 INCHES...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...

A BROKEN BAND OF STRONGLY FORCED SHALLOW CONVECTION...PERHAPS WITH
LIMITED LIGHTNING POTENTIAL...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL IND/KY...AND QUICKLY TRACK EAST
ACROSS OH AND WRN KY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND AROUND 100-250 J/KG SBCAPE MAY BE ADEQUATE FOR SOME
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF 850 MB FLOW
/55-65 KT/ AND THE STRONG BACKGROUND PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GREAT LAKES SFC LOW.

..LEITMAN/GUYER.. 11/24/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 240237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240237
NCZ000-SCZ000-240330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1948
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0837 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SC...EXTREME SRN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 559...

VALID 240237Z - 240330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 559 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND AND BRIEF TORNADO RISKS MAY
PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIKELY
TO DIMINISH AND AN ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CONSOLIDATION OF UPDRAFTS HAS YIELDED A SHORT-LINE
SEGMENT FROM FLORENCE TO BEAUFORT COUNTY. 45-50 KT EWD MOVEMENT WILL
EFFECTIVELY OCCLUDE THE REMAINING ONSHORE WARM SECTOR THAT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS S OF MYRTLE BEACH BY
ABOUT MIDNIGHT. MODIFIED 00Z CHS/MHX RAOBS SUGGEST DEW POINTS THAT
HIGH ARE NECESSARY FOR EVEN MEAGER SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY. AS
SUCH...THE WIND/TORNADO RISK SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER AS
CONVECTION SPREADS E OF WW 559...DESPITE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR.

..GRAMS/HART.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON   33627990 34007958 34257912 34247877 34127836 33867838
            32997926 31948054 31988076 32658060 33248026 33627990





000
ACUS11 KWNS 240237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240237
NCZ000-SCZ000-240330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1948
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0837 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SC...EXTREME SRN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 559...

VALID 240237Z - 240330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 559 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND AND BRIEF TORNADO RISKS MAY
PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIKELY
TO DIMINISH AND AN ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CONSOLIDATION OF UPDRAFTS HAS YIELDED A SHORT-LINE
SEGMENT FROM FLORENCE TO BEAUFORT COUNTY. 45-50 KT EWD MOVEMENT WILL
EFFECTIVELY OCCLUDE THE REMAINING ONSHORE WARM SECTOR THAT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS S OF MYRTLE BEACH BY
ABOUT MIDNIGHT. MODIFIED 00Z CHS/MHX RAOBS SUGGEST DEW POINTS THAT
HIGH ARE NECESSARY FOR EVEN MEAGER SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY. AS
SUCH...THE WIND/TORNADO RISK SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER AS
CONVECTION SPREADS E OF WW 559...DESPITE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR.

..GRAMS/HART.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON   33627990 34007958 34257912 34247877 34127836 33867838
            32997926 31948054 31988076 32658060 33248026 33627990






000
ACUS11 KWNS 240237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240237
NCZ000-SCZ000-240330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1948
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0837 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SC...EXTREME SRN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 559...

VALID 240237Z - 240330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 559 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND AND BRIEF TORNADO RISKS MAY
PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIKELY
TO DIMINISH AND AN ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CONSOLIDATION OF UPDRAFTS HAS YIELDED A SHORT-LINE
SEGMENT FROM FLORENCE TO BEAUFORT COUNTY. 45-50 KT EWD MOVEMENT WILL
EFFECTIVELY OCCLUDE THE REMAINING ONSHORE WARM SECTOR THAT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS S OF MYRTLE BEACH BY
ABOUT MIDNIGHT. MODIFIED 00Z CHS/MHX RAOBS SUGGEST DEW POINTS THAT
HIGH ARE NECESSARY FOR EVEN MEAGER SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY. AS
SUCH...THE WIND/TORNADO RISK SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER AS
CONVECTION SPREADS E OF WW 559...DESPITE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR.

..GRAMS/HART.. 11/24/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON   33627990 34007958 34257912 34247877 34127836 33867838
            32997926 31948054 31988076 32658060 33248026 33627990





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