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000
ACUS01 KWNS 301300
SWODY1
SPC AC 301258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES AND NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST
STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A SIMILAR SEVERE THREAT FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS AND
ADJACENT CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. A
WEST/NORTHWESTWARD-SHIFTING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/ROCKIES WILL BE FLANKED BY A MODERATELY STRONG CORRIDOR OF
CYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND EMBEDDED LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGHS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST STATES.

...NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
EARLY MORNING RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECT SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION AND SEMI-PREVALENT CLOUD COVER ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. ACCORDINGLY...THIS SHOULD SOMEWHAT TEMPER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OTHERWISE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER 12Z
OBSERVED RAOBS. THAT SAID...PRE-FRONTAL MOIST ADVECTION AND POCKETS
OF STRONGER HEATING SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND RESULT IN
CORRIDORS OF MODEST BUOYANCY FROM THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC/DELMARVA
INTO SOUTHEAST NY AND PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND.

MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40
KT EFFECTIVE/ WILL OVERSPREAD MAINLY NY/NEW ENGLAND TODAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-TRANSITIONING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SPEED MAX. PROVIDED SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MULTICELLS AND SOME LINEAR SEGMENTS/SMALL-SCALE BOWS
SHOULD EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...LARGER-SCALE
FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL ALSO A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND.

...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST STATES...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES/ WILL RESULT IN
MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE RANGING
FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN VICINITY OF LEE
TROUGH/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND/OR THE BROADER WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON...A MODESTLY ENHANCED BAND /15-20 KT/ OF
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS MAY HELP SUSTAIN STRONGER STORMS
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
A MCS OVER SOUTHERN KS/FAR NORTHERN OK AT MID-MORNING MAY PERSIST
SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND/OR SUBSEQUENT LATER
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR...IN VICINITY OF A RESIDUAL FRONT AND
RELATED CORRIDOR OF RICH MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
WEAK...AMPLE INSTABILITY/WATER LOADING MAY ALLOW A FEW STRONGER
DOWNDRAFTS TO OCCUR.

...NORTHERN MN/LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY...
A FEW LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. WHILE MOISTURE/OVERALL BUOYANCY
WILL BE A LIMITED AND SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY...A FEW STRONGER
WIND GUSTS COULD REACH THE SURFACE GIVEN A WARM/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER IN THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

..GUYER/COOK.. 07/30/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 301300
SWODY1
SPC AC 301258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES AND NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST
STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A SIMILAR SEVERE THREAT FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS AND
ADJACENT CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. A
WEST/NORTHWESTWARD-SHIFTING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/ROCKIES WILL BE FLANKED BY A MODERATELY STRONG CORRIDOR OF
CYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND EMBEDDED LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGHS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST STATES.

...NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
EARLY MORNING RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECT SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION AND SEMI-PREVALENT CLOUD COVER ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. ACCORDINGLY...THIS SHOULD SOMEWHAT TEMPER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OTHERWISE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER 12Z
OBSERVED RAOBS. THAT SAID...PRE-FRONTAL MOIST ADVECTION AND POCKETS
OF STRONGER HEATING SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND RESULT IN
CORRIDORS OF MODEST BUOYANCY FROM THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC/DELMARVA
INTO SOUTHEAST NY AND PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND.

MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40
KT EFFECTIVE/ WILL OVERSPREAD MAINLY NY/NEW ENGLAND TODAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-TRANSITIONING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SPEED MAX. PROVIDED SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MULTICELLS AND SOME LINEAR SEGMENTS/SMALL-SCALE BOWS
SHOULD EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...LARGER-SCALE
FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL ALSO A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND.

...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST STATES...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES/ WILL RESULT IN
MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE RANGING
FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN VICINITY OF LEE
TROUGH/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND/OR THE BROADER WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON...A MODESTLY ENHANCED BAND /15-20 KT/ OF
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS MAY HELP SUSTAIN STRONGER STORMS
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
A MCS OVER SOUTHERN KS/FAR NORTHERN OK AT MID-MORNING MAY PERSIST
SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND/OR SUBSEQUENT LATER
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR...IN VICINITY OF A RESIDUAL FRONT AND
RELATED CORRIDOR OF RICH MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
WEAK...AMPLE INSTABILITY/WATER LOADING MAY ALLOW A FEW STRONGER
DOWNDRAFTS TO OCCUR.

...NORTHERN MN/LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY...
A FEW LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. WHILE MOISTURE/OVERALL BUOYANCY
WILL BE A LIMITED AND SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY...A FEW STRONGER
WIND GUSTS COULD REACH THE SURFACE GIVEN A WARM/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER IN THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

..GUYER/COOK.. 07/30/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 300734
SWODY3
SPC AC 300732

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER/BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
REMAINS OVER HUDSON BAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING APPEARS SOMEWHAT
NEBULOUS/UNCLEAR...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH 35-45 KT
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN AMPLE SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
GRADUAL UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST
WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...WITH A CONTINUED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT.

HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED AS
TIMING/MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

...NEW ENGLAND...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST AT LEAST
SOME STRONG/SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF
THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING/MAX SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW AND
THEREFORE DID NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..BUNTING.. 07/30/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 300734
SWODY3
SPC AC 300732

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER/BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
REMAINS OVER HUDSON BAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING APPEARS SOMEWHAT
NEBULOUS/UNCLEAR...DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ERODE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BY LATE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH 35-45 KT
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN AMPLE SHEAR FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
GRADUAL UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST
WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...WITH A CONTINUED DAMAGING
WIND THREAT.

HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED AS
TIMING/MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

...NEW ENGLAND...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST AT LEAST
SOME STRONG/SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF
THE FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING/MAX SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW AND
THEREFORE DID NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..BUNTING.. 07/30/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 300601
SWODY1
SPC AC 300600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO PART OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A SIMILAR SEVERE THREAT FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL BECOME STATIONARY THIS
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS HUDSON BAY AS IT DEEPENS AND AMPLIFIES.  THIS
EVOLUTION WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS WEST TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  THE
CYCLONIC-FLOW REGIME WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY
LOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE UPPER MS TO UPPER OH VALLEYS INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES.  A SERIES OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO THESE TROUGHS AND THE
ENLARGEMENT OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW AID IN SHIFTING AN UPPER RIDGE
EAST OF THE NORTHEAST STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM WESTERN NY/PA THROUGH EASTERN TN...AND THEN WESTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHERN AR TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT 12Z TODAY.  THIS
FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES...WHILE THE
TRAILING PORTION MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL TX.

...NEW ENGLAND TO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM WRN NY/PA TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  SURFACE HEATING MAY BE LIMITED THROUGH THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE WEAK.
DESPITE THESE FACTORS...A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR AIR MASS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...WHILE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER WITH NORTHWARD
EXTENT.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS /30-50 METERS AT 500-MB PER 12 HR/
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES WITH THE APPROACH OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND UPLIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS NY INTO NEW
ENGLAND...GIVEN STRENGTHENING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 500-MB WINDS TO 40
KT...WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT PRECLUDES THE
INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES...MAINTAINING THE
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.  FARTHER SOUTH INTO EASTERN PA/NJ TO MD/VA...
INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER...THOUGH WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
WEAKER BULK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION.  GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF DESTABILIZATION...A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT...RESULTING IN THIS REGION BEING INCLUDED IN A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...SOUTHEAST STATES TO LOUISIANA...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES/ WILL RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THESE STATES...
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD
FRONT...LEE TROUGH FROM SC TO SOUTHERN GA...AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.  THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEPENING
SURFACE TO 3-KM LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

...SOUTHWEST STATES TO PART OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN AZ THROUGH NM WHERE THE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
WITHIN A PLUME OF MOISTURE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  MEANWHILE...
MORE OF A DIURNAL-TSTM THREAT WILL EXIST EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN KS
AND OKLAHOMA AND ALSO WESTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CA.  WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THESE AREAS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS/MARSH.. 07/30/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 300601
SWODY1
SPC AC 300600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO PART OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A SIMILAR SEVERE THREAT FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL BECOME STATIONARY THIS
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS HUDSON BAY AS IT DEEPENS AND AMPLIFIES.  THIS
EVOLUTION WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS WEST TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  THE
CYCLONIC-FLOW REGIME WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY
LOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE UPPER MS TO UPPER OH VALLEYS INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES.  A SERIES OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO THESE TROUGHS AND THE
ENLARGEMENT OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW AID IN SHIFTING AN UPPER RIDGE
EAST OF THE NORTHEAST STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM WESTERN NY/PA THROUGH EASTERN TN...AND THEN WESTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHERN AR TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT 12Z TODAY.  THIS
FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES...WHILE THE
TRAILING PORTION MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL TX.

...NEW ENGLAND TO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM WRN NY/PA TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  SURFACE HEATING MAY BE LIMITED THROUGH THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE WEAK.
DESPITE THESE FACTORS...A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR AIR MASS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...WHILE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER WITH NORTHWARD
EXTENT.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS /30-50 METERS AT 500-MB PER 12 HR/
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES WITH THE APPROACH OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND UPLIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS NY INTO NEW
ENGLAND...GIVEN STRENGTHENING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 500-MB WINDS TO 40
KT...WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT PRECLUDES THE
INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES...MAINTAINING THE
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.  FARTHER SOUTH INTO EASTERN PA/NJ TO MD/VA...
INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER...THOUGH WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
WEAKER BULK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION.  GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF DESTABILIZATION...A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT...RESULTING IN THIS REGION BEING INCLUDED IN A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...SOUTHEAST STATES TO LOUISIANA...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES/ WILL RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THESE STATES...
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD
FRONT...LEE TROUGH FROM SC TO SOUTHERN GA...AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.  THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEPENING
SURFACE TO 3-KM LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

...SOUTHWEST STATES TO PART OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN AZ THROUGH NM WHERE THE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
WITHIN A PLUME OF MOISTURE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  MEANWHILE...
MORE OF A DIURNAL-TSTM THREAT WILL EXIST EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN KS
AND OKLAHOMA AND ALSO WESTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CA.  WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THESE AREAS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS/MARSH.. 07/30/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 300601
SWODY1
SPC AC 300600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO PART OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A SIMILAR SEVERE THREAT FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL BECOME STATIONARY THIS
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS HUDSON BAY AS IT DEEPENS AND AMPLIFIES.  THIS
EVOLUTION WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS WEST TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  THE
CYCLONIC-FLOW REGIME WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY
LOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE UPPER MS TO UPPER OH VALLEYS INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES.  A SERIES OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO THESE TROUGHS AND THE
ENLARGEMENT OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW AID IN SHIFTING AN UPPER RIDGE
EAST OF THE NORTHEAST STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM WESTERN NY/PA THROUGH EASTERN TN...AND THEN WESTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHERN AR TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT 12Z TODAY.  THIS
FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES...WHILE THE
TRAILING PORTION MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL TX.

...NEW ENGLAND TO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM WRN NY/PA TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  SURFACE HEATING MAY BE LIMITED THROUGH THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE WEAK.
DESPITE THESE FACTORS...A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR AIR MASS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...WHILE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER WITH NORTHWARD
EXTENT.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS /30-50 METERS AT 500-MB PER 12 HR/
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES WITH THE APPROACH OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND UPLIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS NY INTO NEW
ENGLAND...GIVEN STRENGTHENING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 500-MB WINDS TO 40
KT...WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT PRECLUDES THE
INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES...MAINTAINING THE
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.  FARTHER SOUTH INTO EASTERN PA/NJ TO MD/VA...
INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER...THOUGH WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
WEAKER BULK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION.  GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF DESTABILIZATION...A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT...RESULTING IN THIS REGION BEING INCLUDED IN A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...SOUTHEAST STATES TO LOUISIANA...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES/ WILL RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THESE STATES...
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD
FRONT...LEE TROUGH FROM SC TO SOUTHERN GA...AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.  THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEPENING
SURFACE TO 3-KM LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

...SOUTHWEST STATES TO PART OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN AZ THROUGH NM WHERE THE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
WITHIN A PLUME OF MOISTURE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  MEANWHILE...
MORE OF A DIURNAL-TSTM THREAT WILL EXIST EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN KS
AND OKLAHOMA AND ALSO WESTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CA.  WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THESE AREAS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS/MARSH.. 07/30/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 300601
SWODY1
SPC AC 300600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO PART OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A SIMILAR SEVERE THREAT FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL BECOME STATIONARY THIS
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS HUDSON BAY AS IT DEEPENS AND AMPLIFIES.  THIS
EVOLUTION WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES SHIFTS WEST TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  THE
CYCLONIC-FLOW REGIME WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY
LOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE UPPER MS TO UPPER OH VALLEYS INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES.  A SERIES OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST...WHILE HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO THESE TROUGHS AND THE
ENLARGEMENT OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW AID IN SHIFTING AN UPPER RIDGE
EAST OF THE NORTHEAST STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM WESTERN NY/PA THROUGH EASTERN TN...AND THEN WESTWARD
THROUGH SOUTHERN AR TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT 12Z TODAY.  THIS
FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES...WHILE THE
TRAILING PORTION MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL TX.

...NEW ENGLAND TO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM WRN NY/PA TO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  SURFACE HEATING MAY BE LIMITED THROUGH THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE WEAK.
DESPITE THESE FACTORS...A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR AIR MASS FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...WHILE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER WITH NORTHWARD
EXTENT.  MODEST HEIGHT FALLS /30-50 METERS AT 500-MB PER 12 HR/
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES WITH THE APPROACH OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND UPLIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS NY INTO NEW
ENGLAND...GIVEN STRENGTHENING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 500-MB WINDS TO 40
KT...WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT PRECLUDES THE
INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES...MAINTAINING THE
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK.  FARTHER SOUTH INTO EASTERN PA/NJ TO MD/VA...
INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER...THOUGH WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
WEAKER BULK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION.  GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF DESTABILIZATION...A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT...RESULTING IN THIS REGION BEING INCLUDED IN A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...SOUTHEAST STATES TO LOUISIANA...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES/ WILL RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THESE STATES...
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD
FRONT...LEE TROUGH FROM SC TO SOUTHERN GA...AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES.  THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEPENING
SURFACE TO 3-KM LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

...SOUTHWEST STATES TO PART OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN AZ THROUGH NM WHERE THE GREATEST STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
WITHIN A PLUME OF MOISTURE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  MEANWHILE...
MORE OF A DIURNAL-TSTM THREAT WILL EXIST EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN KS
AND OKLAHOMA AND ALSO WESTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
CA.  WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THESE AREAS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS/MARSH.. 07/30/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 300540
SWODY2
SPC AC 300539

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A
SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
WEST TO NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AVERAGING 30-40 KTS WILL
RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /PRECIPITABLE WATER 2-2.25 INCHES/
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS NEAR THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE. WITH POOR LAPSE
RATES...WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AND POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES
WITH THIS OUTLOOK.

..BUNTING.. 07/30/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 300540
SWODY2
SPC AC 300539

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A
SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
WEST TO NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AVERAGING 30-40 KTS WILL
RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /PRECIPITABLE WATER 2-2.25 INCHES/
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS NEAR THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE. WITH POOR LAPSE
RATES...WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AND POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES
WITH THIS OUTLOOK.

..BUNTING.. 07/30/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 300540
SWODY2
SPC AC 300539

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A
SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
WEST TO NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AVERAGING 30-40 KTS WILL
RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /PRECIPITABLE WATER 2-2.25 INCHES/
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS NEAR THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE. WITH POOR LAPSE
RATES...WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AND POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES
WITH THIS OUTLOOK.

..BUNTING.. 07/30/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 300100
SWODY1
SPC AC 300058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KY INTO
TN...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL LA...

...SUMMARY...
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO TENNESSEE...AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE...DEEP CYCLONE WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NNE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO HUDSON
BAY.  A BROAD CYCLONIC-FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL FROM SW CANADA
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS MID-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WITH THE LEAD TROUGH
TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH SHOULD MOVE FROM
SOUTHERN ALBERTA/NW MT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MN BY 12Z THU.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL KY INTO TN AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LA...
FORWARD-PROPAGATING AND COLD-POOL ENHANCED CONVECTIVE LINES WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH
VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHERN AREA AND MODERATELY STRONG
INSTABILITY IN SOUTHERN LA.  EACH AREA SHOULD HAVE A DIMINISHING
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES/LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SOUTHWEST STATES INTO SOUTHERN CA...
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A FEW MIDLEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING
NORTHWARD THROUGH NM/AZ/SOUTHERN CA AND DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL WAA
REGIME ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MOIST/MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PORTION OF THIS AREA MAY
HAVE STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...GIVEN A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.

..PETERS.. 07/30/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 300100
SWODY1
SPC AC 300058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KY INTO
TN...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL LA...

...SUMMARY...
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO TENNESSEE...AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE...DEEP CYCLONE WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NNE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO HUDSON
BAY.  A BROAD CYCLONIC-FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL FROM SW CANADA
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS MID-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WITH THE LEAD TROUGH
TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH SHOULD MOVE FROM
SOUTHERN ALBERTA/NW MT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MN BY 12Z THU.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL KY INTO TN AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LA...
FORWARD-PROPAGATING AND COLD-POOL ENHANCED CONVECTIVE LINES WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH
VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHERN AREA AND MODERATELY STRONG
INSTABILITY IN SOUTHERN LA.  EACH AREA SHOULD HAVE A DIMINISHING
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES/LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SOUTHWEST STATES INTO SOUTHERN CA...
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A FEW MIDLEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING
NORTHWARD THROUGH NM/AZ/SOUTHERN CA AND DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL WAA
REGIME ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MOIST/MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PORTION OF THIS AREA MAY
HAVE STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...GIVEN A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.

..PETERS.. 07/30/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 300100
SWODY1
SPC AC 300058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KY INTO
TN...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL LA...

...SUMMARY...
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO TENNESSEE...AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE...DEEP CYCLONE WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NNE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO HUDSON
BAY.  A BROAD CYCLONIC-FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL FROM SW CANADA
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS MID-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WITH THE LEAD TROUGH
TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH SHOULD MOVE FROM
SOUTHERN ALBERTA/NW MT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MN BY 12Z THU.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL KY INTO TN AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LA...
FORWARD-PROPAGATING AND COLD-POOL ENHANCED CONVECTIVE LINES WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH
VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHERN AREA AND MODERATELY STRONG
INSTABILITY IN SOUTHERN LA.  EACH AREA SHOULD HAVE A DIMINISHING
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES/LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SOUTHWEST STATES INTO SOUTHERN CA...
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A FEW MIDLEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING
NORTHWARD THROUGH NM/AZ/SOUTHERN CA AND DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL WAA
REGIME ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MOIST/MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PORTION OF THIS AREA MAY
HAVE STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...GIVEN A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.

..PETERS.. 07/30/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 300100
SWODY1
SPC AC 300058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KY INTO
TN...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL LA...

...SUMMARY...
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO TENNESSEE...AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.  LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE...DEEP CYCLONE WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NNE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO HUDSON
BAY.  A BROAD CYCLONIC-FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL FROM SW CANADA
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS MID-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WITH THE LEAD TROUGH
TRACKING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH SHOULD MOVE FROM
SOUTHERN ALBERTA/NW MT INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MN BY 12Z THU.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL KY INTO TN AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LA...
FORWARD-PROPAGATING AND COLD-POOL ENHANCED CONVECTIVE LINES WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK AS THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH
VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE NORTHERN AREA AND MODERATELY STRONG
INSTABILITY IN SOUTHERN LA.  EACH AREA SHOULD HAVE A DIMINISHING
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES/LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SOUTHWEST STATES INTO SOUTHERN CA...
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A FEW MIDLEVEL IMPULSES TRACKING
NORTHWARD THROUGH NM/AZ/SOUTHERN CA AND DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL WAA
REGIME ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MOIST/MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PORTION OF THIS AREA MAY
HAVE STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...GIVEN A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.

..PETERS.. 07/30/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 292027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292027
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-292200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1571
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SERN MO...SERN IL...SRN/ERN
IND...AND WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292027Z - 292200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
THREAT.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY AIDED BY A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS OVER IA/MO. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG
ATTM...THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO A QUITE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
MCD AREA...WITH THE KVWX VWP SAMPLING WINDS OF 20-25 KT BETWEEN 3-6
KM AGL. ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT PROCESSES
GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WEAK BULK SHEAR VALUES COULD LIMIT A MORE
ORGANIZED WIND THREAT...AND MOST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE
QUICKLY WEAKENS THE ONGOING CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..GLEASON/GOSS.. 07/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   37698897 38108820 38778749 39108647 39748577 40098540
            40068488 39468491 38178566 37698626 37108745 36828901
            37328981 37698897






000
ACUS11 KWNS 292027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292027
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-292200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1571
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SERN MO...SERN IL...SRN/ERN
IND...AND WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292027Z - 292200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
THREAT.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE
REGION...POSSIBLY AIDED BY A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM
FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS OVER IA/MO. WHILE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG
ATTM...THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO A QUITE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
MCD AREA...WITH THE KVWX VWP SAMPLING WINDS OF 20-25 KT BETWEEN 3-6
KM AGL. ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT PROCESSES
GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WEAK BULK SHEAR VALUES COULD LIMIT A MORE
ORGANIZED WIND THREAT...AND MOST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE
QUICKLY WEAKENS THE ONGOING CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..GLEASON/GOSS.. 07/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

LAT...LON   37698897 38108820 38778749 39108647 39748577 40098540
            40068488 39468491 38178566 37698626 37108745 36828901
            37328981 37698897





000
ACUS01 KWNS 291944
SWODY1
SPC AC 291942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH
VALLEY TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

...WRN ME/NH...
AN ISOLATED CELL CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL CONTINUES TOWARD
THE COAST OF SRN ME. STRONG HEATING AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCING THE AREA HAS HELPED THESE
ISOLATED CELLS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LITTLE CONVERGENCE EXISTS
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
DEPARTS...THUS WILL NOT ADD ANY MARGINAL AREA FOR ADDITIONAL HAIL.

...GULF COAST STATES...
A THREAT OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS EXISTS AS SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A VERY WARM AND
MOIST ENVIRONMENT DURING PEAK HEATING. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1570.

..JEWELL.. 07/29/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SURFACE TROUGHING WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD...AS THE PARENT LOW OVER WRN
ONTARIO MOVES NWD TOWARD JAMES BAY THROUGH 30/12Z.  ELSEWHERE...WEAK
FLOW/RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SRN 2/3 OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE TRAILING PORTION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE SHIFTING MORE SLOWLY SWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/MID SOUTH/OZARKS/SRN PLAINS REGION WITH TIME.
ELSEWHERE...A WEAK/RATHER NONDESCRIPT PATTERN WILL PREVAIL --
LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

...GREAT LAKES REGION SWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
REGION -- AND WWD ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO THE KS/OK AREA...ALONG A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A PARENT LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO.  STORMS
ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...AS A
WEAK VORT MAX DRIFTS SWD ACROSS THIS REGION.

THOUGH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE FRONT -- DESTABILIZING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING -- WILL
FUEL THE CONVECTION...RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION
SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY.  A FEW BRIEFLY STRONGER
CELLS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF A
FEW STORMS CAN CLUSTER TOGETHER AND EVOLVE SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN
ORGANIZED COLD POOL.  WHILE SUCH A SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE IN
PARTICULAR OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INVOF THE WEAK
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING SWD ACROSS THIS AREA...CONFIDENCE THAT
SUCH A SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN MORE SUBSTANTIAL/CONCENTRATED WIND
RISK PRECLUDES ANY CATEGORICAL/PROBABILISTIC UPGRADE.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 291944
SWODY1
SPC AC 291942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH
VALLEY TOWARD THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

...WRN ME/NH...
AN ISOLATED CELL CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL CONTINUES TOWARD
THE COAST OF SRN ME. STRONG HEATING AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCING THE AREA HAS HELPED THESE
ISOLATED CELLS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...LITTLE CONVERGENCE EXISTS
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
DEPARTS...THUS WILL NOT ADD ANY MARGINAL AREA FOR ADDITIONAL HAIL.

...GULF COAST STATES...
A THREAT OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS EXISTS AS SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A VERY WARM AND
MOIST ENVIRONMENT DURING PEAK HEATING. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1570.

..JEWELL.. 07/29/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SURFACE TROUGHING WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD...AS THE PARENT LOW OVER WRN
ONTARIO MOVES NWD TOWARD JAMES BAY THROUGH 30/12Z.  ELSEWHERE...WEAK
FLOW/RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SRN 2/3 OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE TRAILING PORTION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE SHIFTING MORE SLOWLY SWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/MID SOUTH/OZARKS/SRN PLAINS REGION WITH TIME.
ELSEWHERE...A WEAK/RATHER NONDESCRIPT PATTERN WILL PREVAIL --
LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

...GREAT LAKES REGION SWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
REGION -- AND WWD ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO THE KS/OK AREA...ALONG A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A PARENT LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO.  STORMS
ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...AS A
WEAK VORT MAX DRIFTS SWD ACROSS THIS REGION.

THOUGH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE FRONT -- DESTABILIZING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING -- WILL
FUEL THE CONVECTION...RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION
SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY.  A FEW BRIEFLY STRONGER
CELLS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF A
FEW STORMS CAN CLUSTER TOGETHER AND EVOLVE SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN
ORGANIZED COLD POOL.  WHILE SUCH A SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE IN
PARTICULAR OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INVOF THE WEAK
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING SWD ACROSS THIS AREA...CONFIDENCE THAT
SUCH A SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN MORE SUBSTANTIAL/CONCENTRATED WIND
RISK PRECLUDES ANY CATEGORICAL/PROBABILISTIC UPGRADE.






000
ACUS11 KWNS 291913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291912
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-292115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1570
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MS...MUCH OF AL...AND THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291912Z - 292115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...A SUBTLE VORTICITY MAXIMUM EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANALYZED BY THE RAP OVER NRN AL/NERN MS AS OF
19Z WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS PRESENT OVER THE MCD AREA...WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. POCKETS OF HEATING HAVE
GENERALLY ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE...WITH RAP
MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS INSTABILITY ESTIMATE AGREES WELL WITH ADJUSTING THE 12Z
SOUNDING FROM BMX FOR CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS. SOMEWHAT ENHANCED
NLY LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 20-30 KT IN THE 2-6 KM LAYER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND IS GENERALLY PRESENT
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA PER VARIOUS RADAR VWPS.

TWO VERY LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AS
OF 19Z...ONE OVER NERN MS TO E-CNTRL AL...AND ANOTHER OVER W-CNTRL
TO SERN AL. THESE CLUSTERS ARE MOVING GENERALLY SWD WITH THE MEAN
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR BOTH CONVECTIVE AREAS
TO REMAIN MOSTLY DISORGANIZED GIVEN WEAK BULK SHEAR AND POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...THE ENHANCED NLY FLOW MAY ENCOURAGE
SOME CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS TO BECOME STRONG/GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL TREE DOWN THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN BY
EARLY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..GLEASON/GOSS.. 07/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   34438932 34598879 34548792 34328691 33948556 33708546
            32078520 30718567 30388616 30368700 30288775 30568868
            31208949 33268947 34438932





000
ACUS11 KWNS 291913
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291912
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-292115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1570
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MS...MUCH OF AL...AND THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291912Z - 292115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...A SUBTLE VORTICITY MAXIMUM EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANALYZED BY THE RAP OVER NRN AL/NERN MS AS OF
19Z WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS PRESENT OVER THE MCD AREA...WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. POCKETS OF HEATING HAVE
GENERALLY ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE...WITH RAP
MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS INSTABILITY ESTIMATE AGREES WELL WITH ADJUSTING THE 12Z
SOUNDING FROM BMX FOR CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS. SOMEWHAT ENHANCED
NLY LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 20-30 KT IN THE 2-6 KM LAYER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND IS GENERALLY PRESENT
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA PER VARIOUS RADAR VWPS.

TWO VERY LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AS
OF 19Z...ONE OVER NERN MS TO E-CNTRL AL...AND ANOTHER OVER W-CNTRL
TO SERN AL. THESE CLUSTERS ARE MOVING GENERALLY SWD WITH THE MEAN
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR BOTH CONVECTIVE AREAS
TO REMAIN MOSTLY DISORGANIZED GIVEN WEAK BULK SHEAR AND POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...THE ENHANCED NLY FLOW MAY ENCOURAGE
SOME CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS TO BECOME STRONG/GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH AN
OCCASIONAL TREE DOWN THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN BY
EARLY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..GLEASON/GOSS.. 07/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   34438932 34598879 34548792 34328691 33948556 33708546
            32078520 30718567 30388616 30368700 30288775 30568868
            31208949 33268947 34438932






000
ACUS11 KWNS 291829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291828
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-292100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN LOWER MI...FAR ERN IND...AND WRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 291828Z - 292100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER NRN ONTARIO MOVES NEWD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. TEMPERATURES ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.0 DEG C/KM AHEAD OF THE FRONT PER 12Z
DTX SOUNDING SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH...WITH MLCAPE
ESTIMATED BY RAP MESOANALYSIS AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE MCD
AREA SUPPORTED MAINLY BY DIURNAL HEATING OF THE LOW LEVELS. SOME
STRONGER FLOW AROUND 30-35 KT BETWEEN 3-6 KM IS MOVING OVER THE NRN
PORTIONS OF THIS REGION PER LATEST VWP FROM KDTX...WHICH MAY BE
PROMOTED TO THE SFC THROUGH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. GIVEN THE LINEAR
NATURE OF THE FRONT AND MARGINAL BULK SHEAR...MULTICELL CLUSTERS
WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORM MODE.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THEY ENCOUNTER A DRIER AND LESS UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER N-CNTRL/NERN OH.

..GLEASON/GOSS.. 07/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...

LAT...LON   43098405 43698379 44078318 44088279 43838254 43058239
            42548258 42198297 41858289 41668253 40858268 40088311
            39428372 39448445 39528492 40038489 41078490 42078442
            43098405





000
ACUS02 KWNS 291721
SWODY2
SPC AC 291720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NERN STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL GULF
COASTAL STATES AND SRN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER HUDSON BAY WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SRN PLAINS...RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING HEIGHTS
OVER THE E.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND INTO THE S
CNTRL GULF COAST STATES WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE NERN STATES WHERE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE AIDED BY INCREASED DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH.

TO THE W...ELY FLOW AROUND A CNTRL PLAINS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST
AIR MASS WWD TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH WEAK DAYTIME STORMS
DEVELOPING THERE.

...NERN STATES...
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING NEAR AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NY AND PA EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THIS ZONE OF ASCENT
ENCOUNTERS A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...BUT INCREASING MEAN WIND FIELDS AS WELL AS
FOCUSED LIFT MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...PERHAPS A FEW
DAMAGING GUSTS. ANY HAIL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SMALL.

...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...
STRONG HEATING NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS
FROM ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND INTO NRN FL AND THE WRN
CAROLINAS. STRONG HEATING ALONG WITH WEAK WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS.

..JEWELL.. 07/29/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 291721
SWODY2
SPC AC 291720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NERN STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL GULF
COASTAL STATES AND SRN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER HUDSON BAY WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SRN PLAINS...RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING HEIGHTS
OVER THE E.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND INTO THE S
CNTRL GULF COAST STATES WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE NERN STATES WHERE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE AIDED BY INCREASED DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH.

TO THE W...ELY FLOW AROUND A CNTRL PLAINS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST
AIR MASS WWD TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH WEAK DAYTIME STORMS
DEVELOPING THERE.

...NERN STATES...
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING NEAR AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NY AND PA EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THIS ZONE OF ASCENT
ENCOUNTERS A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...BUT INCREASING MEAN WIND FIELDS AS WELL AS
FOCUSED LIFT MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...PERHAPS A FEW
DAMAGING GUSTS. ANY HAIL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SMALL.

...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...
STRONG HEATING NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS
FROM ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND INTO NRN FL AND THE WRN
CAROLINAS. STRONG HEATING ALONG WITH WEAK WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS.

..JEWELL.. 07/29/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 291721
SWODY2
SPC AC 291720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NERN STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL GULF
COASTAL STATES AND SRN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE SITUATED OVER HUDSON BAY WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SRN PLAINS...RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING HEIGHTS
OVER THE E.

AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN DURING
THE DAY FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND INTO THE S
CNTRL GULF COAST STATES WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE NERN STATES WHERE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE AIDED BY INCREASED DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH.

TO THE W...ELY FLOW AROUND A CNTRL PLAINS HIGH WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST
AIR MASS WWD TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH WEAK DAYTIME STORMS
DEVELOPING THERE.

...NERN STATES...
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING NEAR AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN NY AND PA EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THIS ZONE OF ASCENT
ENCOUNTERS A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...BUT INCREASING MEAN WIND FIELDS AS WELL AS
FOCUSED LIFT MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...PERHAPS A FEW
DAMAGING GUSTS. ANY HAIL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SMALL.

...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS...
STRONG HEATING NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED DAYTIME STORMS
FROM ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND INTO NRN FL AND THE WRN
CAROLINAS. STRONG HEATING ALONG WITH WEAK WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS.

..JEWELL.. 07/29/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 291641
SWODY1
SPC AC 291639

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWD
TO THE GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL SURFACE TROUGHING WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD...AS THE PARENT LOW OVER WRN
ONTARIO MOVES NWD TOWARD JAMES BAY THROUGH 30/12Z.  ELSEWHERE...WEAK
FLOW/RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SRN 2/3 OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE TRAILING PORTION OF A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE SHIFTING MORE SLOWLY SWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/MID SOUTH/OZARKS/SRN PLAINS REGION WITH TIME.
ELSEWHERE...A WEAK/RATHER NONDESCRIPT PATTERN WILL PREVAIL --
LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

...GREAT LAKES REGION SWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
REGION -- AND WWD ACROSS THE OZARKS INTO THE KS/OK AREA...ALONG A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A PARENT LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO.  STORMS
ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...AS A
WEAK VORT MAX DRIFTS SWD ACROSS THIS REGION.

THOUGH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE FRONT -- DESTABILIZING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING -- WILL
FUEL THE CONVECTION...RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION
SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY.  A FEW BRIEFLY STRONGER
CELLS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF A
FEW STORMS CAN CLUSTER TOGETHER AND EVOLVE SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN
ORGANIZED COLD POOL.  WHILE SUCH A SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE IN
PARTICULAR OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INVOF THE WEAK
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING SWD ACROSS THIS AREA...CONFIDENCE THAT
SUCH A SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN MORE SUBSTANTIAL/CONCENTRATED WIND
RISK PRECLUDES ANY CATEGORICAL/PROBABILISTIC UPGRADE.

..GOSS/GLEASON.. 07/29/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 291230
SWODY1
SPC AC 291228

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI...OH
VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...OH VALLEY/LOWER MI...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY AS
A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BY
AFTERNOON FROM THE MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY NWD INTO LOWER MI.
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FORM THE UPPER 70S F ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY TO NEAR 70 F IN LOWER MI WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO INITIATE ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE 80S F AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WITH SOME CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FROM DETROIT SWD TO CINCINNATI SHOW SBCAPE
FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND 25 TO
30 KT OF WLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS.

...TN VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND
OZARKS TODAY. EAST OF THE RIDGE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MS AND AL
NWD INTO TN. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE
REGION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SPORADICALLY ALONG
ZONES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHERE THE STRONGEST HEATING OCCURS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF MAXIMUM FORECAST
INSTABILITY FROM MOBILE AL TO TUPELO MS SHOW SBCAPE FROM 2500 TO
3000 J/KG WITH 25 TO 30 KT OF NLY FLOW BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB. THIS
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH SWD-MOVING STORM
CLUSTERS NEAR PEAK HEATING.

..BROYLES/COOK.. 07/29/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 291230
SWODY1
SPC AC 291228

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI...OH
VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...OH VALLEY/LOWER MI...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY AS
A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BY
AFTERNOON FROM THE MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY NWD INTO LOWER MI.
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FORM THE UPPER 70S F ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY TO NEAR 70 F IN LOWER MI WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO INITIATE ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE 80S F AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WITH SOME CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FROM DETROIT SWD TO CINCINNATI SHOW SBCAPE
FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND 25 TO
30 KT OF WLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS.

...TN VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND
OZARKS TODAY. EAST OF THE RIDGE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MS AND AL
NWD INTO TN. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE
REGION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SPORADICALLY ALONG
ZONES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHERE THE STRONGEST HEATING OCCURS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF MAXIMUM FORECAST
INSTABILITY FROM MOBILE AL TO TUPELO MS SHOW SBCAPE FROM 2500 TO
3000 J/KG WITH 25 TO 30 KT OF NLY FLOW BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB. THIS
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH SWD-MOVING STORM
CLUSTERS NEAR PEAK HEATING.

..BROYLES/COOK.. 07/29/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 291230
SWODY1
SPC AC 291228

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI...OH
VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...OH VALLEY/LOWER MI...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY AS
A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BY
AFTERNOON FROM THE MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY NWD INTO LOWER MI.
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FORM THE UPPER 70S F ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY TO NEAR 70 F IN LOWER MI WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO INITIATE ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE 80S F AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WITH SOME CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FROM DETROIT SWD TO CINCINNATI SHOW SBCAPE
FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND 25 TO
30 KT OF WLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS.

...TN VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND
OZARKS TODAY. EAST OF THE RIDGE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MS AND AL
NWD INTO TN. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE
REGION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SPORADICALLY ALONG
ZONES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHERE THE STRONGEST HEATING OCCURS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF MAXIMUM FORECAST
INSTABILITY FROM MOBILE AL TO TUPELO MS SHOW SBCAPE FROM 2500 TO
3000 J/KG WITH 25 TO 30 KT OF NLY FLOW BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB. THIS
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH SWD-MOVING STORM
CLUSTERS NEAR PEAK HEATING.

..BROYLES/COOK.. 07/29/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 291230
SWODY1
SPC AC 291228

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI...OH
VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...OH VALLEY/LOWER MI...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY AS
A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BY
AFTERNOON FROM THE MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY NWD INTO LOWER MI.
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FORM THE UPPER 70S F ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY TO NEAR 70 F IN LOWER MI WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO INITIATE ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE 80S F AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON WITH SOME CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FROM DETROIT SWD TO CINCINNATI SHOW SBCAPE
FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND 25 TO
30 KT OF WLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS.

...TN VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND
OZARKS TODAY. EAST OF THE RIDGE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MS AND AL
NWD INTO TN. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE
REGION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SPORADICALLY ALONG
ZONES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHERE THE STRONGEST HEATING OCCURS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF MAXIMUM FORECAST
INSTABILITY FROM MOBILE AL TO TUPELO MS SHOW SBCAPE FROM 2500 TO
3000 J/KG WITH 25 TO 30 KT OF NLY FLOW BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB. THIS
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH SWD-MOVING STORM
CLUSTERS NEAR PEAK HEATING.

..BROYLES/COOK.. 07/29/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 290724
SWODY3
SPC AC 290723

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS/ADJACENT
CANADA ON FRIDAY. BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER HUDSON
BAY/NORTHERN ONTARIO...A BELT OF RELATIVELY STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL EXTEND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...
SOME GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING THE TIMING/SPATIAL
DETAILS OF A WEAK SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTENING WILL TEND TO BE LIMITED BY RESIDUAL
ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OVER THE LOWER MO
VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT A SPATIALLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
MODEST MOISTENING WILL NONETHELESS OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEAST-ADVANCING FRONT. WHILE LARGER-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...AMPLE HEATING/MIXING IN THE PRESENCE OF
WEAK NEAR-BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN SPATIAL/COVERAGE DETAILS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
HIGH...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED FOR AT LEAST A
CONDITIONAL-TYPE SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. IF/WHERE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS...SEVERE HAIL/WIND WOULD
BE THE MAIN POSSIBILITIES.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES/NORTH FL WITHIN A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO PRIOR DAY
CONVECTION/SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER...IN AN ENVIRONMENT OTHERWISE
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR/POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...PRECLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 07/29/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 290724
SWODY3
SPC AC 290723

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS/ADJACENT
CANADA ON FRIDAY. BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER HUDSON
BAY/NORTHERN ONTARIO...A BELT OF RELATIVELY STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL EXTEND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...
SOME GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING THE TIMING/SPATIAL
DETAILS OF A WEAK SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTENING WILL TEND TO BE LIMITED BY RESIDUAL
ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OVER THE LOWER MO
VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT A SPATIALLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
MODEST MOISTENING WILL NONETHELESS OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEAST-ADVANCING FRONT. WHILE LARGER-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...AMPLE HEATING/MIXING IN THE PRESENCE OF
WEAK NEAR-BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN SPATIAL/COVERAGE DETAILS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
HIGH...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED FOR AT LEAST A
CONDITIONAL-TYPE SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. IF/WHERE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS...SEVERE HAIL/WIND WOULD
BE THE MAIN POSSIBILITIES.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES/NORTH FL WITHIN A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO PRIOR DAY
CONVECTION/SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER...IN AN ENVIRONMENT OTHERWISE
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR/POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...PRECLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 07/29/2015





000
ACUS03 KWNS 290724
SWODY3
SPC AC 290723

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS/ADJACENT
CANADA ON FRIDAY. BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER HUDSON
BAY/NORTHERN ONTARIO...A BELT OF RELATIVELY STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL EXTEND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST...
SOME GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING THE TIMING/SPATIAL
DETAILS OF A WEAK SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTENING WILL TEND TO BE LIMITED BY RESIDUAL
ANTICYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OVER THE LOWER MO
VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT A SPATIALLY NARROW CORRIDOR OF
MODEST MOISTENING WILL NONETHELESS OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEAST-ADVANCING FRONT. WHILE LARGER-SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...AMPLE HEATING/MIXING IN THE PRESENCE OF
WEAK NEAR-BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN SPATIAL/COVERAGE DETAILS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
HIGH...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED FOR AT LEAST A
CONDITIONAL-TYPE SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. IF/WHERE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS...SEVERE HAIL/WIND WOULD
BE THE MAIN POSSIBILITIES.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES/NORTH FL WITHIN A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO PRIOR DAY
CONVECTION/SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER...IN AN ENVIRONMENT OTHERWISE
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR/POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...PRECLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 07/29/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 290636
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290636 COR
ILZ000-MOZ000-290900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN MO...WRN IL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290636Z - 290900Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN HEADER

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LINE OF TSTMS WITH INTERMITTENT/SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS WILL
OFFER LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS APCHG SVR LIMITS.
GIVEN LOW COVERAGE AND MRGL ORGANIZATION/MAGNITUDE OF RISK...WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

DISCUSSION...LEADING EDGE AND STRONGEST SEGMENT OF STG TSTM BAND
EXTENDED AT 06Z FROM WRN SCHUYLER COUNTY MO SWWD TO NEAR CDJ.  FROM
THAT AREA WWD...CONVECTION WAS INCREASINGLY FAR BEHIND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT WAS PROCEEDING SEWD ACROSS NWRN MO AND SHOULD REMAIN
DECIDEDLY SUB-SVR.  NERN MO SEGMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE CLOSEST
ACCESS TO FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING EWD ACROSS MS RIVER.  MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS FOR
PROJECTED PATH ESEWD INTO WRN IL HAVE 1.6-2.1-INCH PW AND 16-19 G/KG
MEAN MIXING RATIOS...AND 00Z 850-MB CHART SHOWED 16.5-17.5 DEG C DEW
POINTS UPSTREAM.  THIS SUPPORTS MUCAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG...AND MLCAPE
REMAINING IN 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  EFFECTIVE
INFLOW PARCELS APPEAR TO REMAIN SFC-BASED...ALBEIT INCLUDING
SHALLOW/COOL NEAR-SFC LAYER AND SBCINH INCREASING WITH TIME.

SFC DEW POINT AT IRK PLUMMETED 11 DEG F TO 65 IN AN HOUR FROM
04Z-05Z BEHIND WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION FARTHER
NE...AND ROSE ONLY A DEGREE BY 06Z.  HOWEVER...THAT OBSERVATION IS
SUSPECT GIVEN HIGHER/LITTLE-CHANGED POST-OUTFLOW DEW POINTS TO ITS
NE...AND LACK OF APPARENT HEATBURST/WARMING PROCESSES THAT ALSO
WOULD PERFORM DRYING.  THIS OB MAY RENDER LOW BIAS TO MOISTURE/CAPE
FIELDS IN OBJECTIVE ANALYSES....BUT OVERALL BUOYANCY AND CINH SHOULD
DECREASE GRADUALLY WITH TIME AMIDST NOCTURNAL/DIABATIC COOLING.
NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR UPSCALE ORGANIZATION/INTENSIFICATION BESIDES
CINH INCLUDE
1. WARMER AIR ALOFT AND DECREASING EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES WITH
EWD EXTENT IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE...AND
2. RELATIVELY WEAK/VEERED NATURE OF 850-MB FLOW -- I.E. ONLY 15-25
KT BASED ON REGIONAL VWP AND WLY...WHICH IS ALONG STORM-MOTION
VECTOR AND WHICH YIELDS LESS THAN 10 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW.

LOCAL BOWING SEGMENTS MAY OFFER WEAKLY REAR-INFLOW-ASSISTED/
WATER-LOADED GUSTS APCHG SVR LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THREAT CURRENTLY
APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR ANOTHER WW.  WW 459 EXPIRED AT 5Z ACROSS SRN
IA AND NRN MO...AND WAS NOT EXTENDED DUE TO MRGL/ISOLATED NATURE OF
SVR RISK.

..EDWARDS/BROYLES.. 07/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON   39699346 39919300 40209280 40379277 40299152 40189044
            39429031 38909115 39519307 39699346






000
ACUS11 KWNS 290636
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290636 COR
ILZ000-MOZ000-290900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN MO...WRN IL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290636Z - 290900Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN HEADER

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LINE OF TSTMS WITH INTERMITTENT/SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS WILL
OFFER LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS APCHG SVR LIMITS.
GIVEN LOW COVERAGE AND MRGL ORGANIZATION/MAGNITUDE OF RISK...WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

DISCUSSION...LEADING EDGE AND STRONGEST SEGMENT OF STG TSTM BAND
EXTENDED AT 06Z FROM WRN SCHUYLER COUNTY MO SWWD TO NEAR CDJ.  FROM
THAT AREA WWD...CONVECTION WAS INCREASINGLY FAR BEHIND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT WAS PROCEEDING SEWD ACROSS NWRN MO AND SHOULD REMAIN
DECIDEDLY SUB-SVR.  NERN MO SEGMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE CLOSEST
ACCESS TO FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING EWD ACROSS MS RIVER.  MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS FOR
PROJECTED PATH ESEWD INTO WRN IL HAVE 1.6-2.1-INCH PW AND 16-19 G/KG
MEAN MIXING RATIOS...AND 00Z 850-MB CHART SHOWED 16.5-17.5 DEG C DEW
POINTS UPSTREAM.  THIS SUPPORTS MUCAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG...AND MLCAPE
REMAINING IN 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  EFFECTIVE
INFLOW PARCELS APPEAR TO REMAIN SFC-BASED...ALBEIT INCLUDING
SHALLOW/COOL NEAR-SFC LAYER AND SBCINH INCREASING WITH TIME.

SFC DEW POINT AT IRK PLUMMETED 11 DEG F TO 65 IN AN HOUR FROM
04Z-05Z BEHIND WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION FARTHER
NE...AND ROSE ONLY A DEGREE BY 06Z.  HOWEVER...THAT OBSERVATION IS
SUSPECT GIVEN HIGHER/LITTLE-CHANGED POST-OUTFLOW DEW POINTS TO ITS
NE...AND LACK OF APPARENT HEATBURST/WARMING PROCESSES THAT ALSO
WOULD PERFORM DRYING.  THIS OB MAY RENDER LOW BIAS TO MOISTURE/CAPE
FIELDS IN OBJECTIVE ANALYSES....BUT OVERALL BUOYANCY AND CINH SHOULD
DECREASE GRADUALLY WITH TIME AMIDST NOCTURNAL/DIABATIC COOLING.
NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR UPSCALE ORGANIZATION/INTENSIFICATION BESIDES
CINH INCLUDE
1. WARMER AIR ALOFT AND DECREASING EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES WITH
EWD EXTENT IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE...AND
2. RELATIVELY WEAK/VEERED NATURE OF 850-MB FLOW -- I.E. ONLY 15-25
KT BASED ON REGIONAL VWP AND WLY...WHICH IS ALONG STORM-MOTION
VECTOR AND WHICH YIELDS LESS THAN 10 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW.

LOCAL BOWING SEGMENTS MAY OFFER WEAKLY REAR-INFLOW-ASSISTED/
WATER-LOADED GUSTS APCHG SVR LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THREAT CURRENTLY
APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR ANOTHER WW.  WW 459 EXPIRED AT 5Z ACROSS SRN
IA AND NRN MO...AND WAS NOT EXTENDED DUE TO MRGL/ISOLATED NATURE OF
SVR RISK.

..EDWARDS/BROYLES.. 07/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON   39699346 39919300 40209280 40379277 40299152 40189044
            39429031 38909115 39519307 39699346





000
ACUS11 KWNS 290631
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290631
ILZ000-MOZ000-290900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NO...WRN IL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290631Z - 290900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LINE OF TSTMS WITH INTERMITTENT/SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS WILL
OFFER LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS APCHG SVR LIMITS.
GIVEN LOW COVERAGE AND MRGL ORGANIZATION/MAGNITUDE OF RISK...WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

DISCUSSION...LEADING EDGE AND STRONGEST SEGMENT OF STG TSTM BAND
EXTENDED AT 06Z FROM WRN SCHUYLER COUNTY MO SWWD TO NEAR CDJ.  FROM
THAT AREA WWD...CONVECTION WAS INCREASINGLY FAR BEHIND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT WAS PROCEEDING SEWD ACROSS NWRN MO AND SHOULD REMAIN
DECIDEDLY SUB-SVR.  NERN MO SEGMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE CLOSEST
ACCESS TO FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING EWD ACROSS MS RIVER.  MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS FOR
PROJECTED PATH ESEWD INTO WRN IL HAVE 1.6-2.1-INCH PW AND 16-19 G/KG
MEAN MIXING RATIOS...AND 00Z 850-MB CHART SHOWED 16.5-17.5 DEG C DEW
POINTS UPSTREAM.  THIS SUPPORTS MUCAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG...AND MLCAPE
REMAINING IN 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  EFFECTIVE
INFLOW PARCELS APPEAR TO REMAIN SFC-BASED...ALBEIT INCLUDING
SHALLOW/COOL NEAR-SFC LAYER AND SBCINH INCREASING WITH TIME.

SFC DEW POINT AT IRK PLUMMETED 11 DEG F TO 65 IN AN HOUR FROM
04Z-05Z BEHIND WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION FARTHER
NE...AND ROSE ONLY A DEGREE BY 06Z.  HOWEVER...THAT OBSERVATION IS
SUSPECT GIVEN HIGHER/LITTLE-CHANGED POST-OUTFLOW DEW POINTS TO ITS
NE...AND LACK OF APPARENT HEATBURST/WARMING PROCESSES THAT ALSO
WOULD PERFORM DRYING.  THIS OB MAY RENDER LOW BIAS TO MOISTURE/CAPE
FIELDS IN OBJECTIVE ANALYSES....BUT OVERALL BUOYANCY AND CINH SHOULD
DECREASE GRADUALLY WITH TIME AMIDST NOCTURNAL/DIABATIC COOLING.
NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR UPSCALE ORGANIZATION/INTENSIFICATION BESIDES
CINH INCLUDE
1. WARMER AIR ALOFT AND DECREASING EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES WITH
EWD EXTENT IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE...AND
2. RELATIVELY WEAK/VEERED NATURE OF 850-MB FLOW -- I.E. ONLY 15-25
KT BASED ON REGIONAL VWP AND WLY...WHICH IS ALONG STORM-MOTION
VECTOR AND WHICH YIELDS LESS THAN 10 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW.

LOCAL BOWING SEGMENTS MAY OFFER WEAKLY REAR-INFLOW-ASSISTED/
WATER-LOADED GUSTS APCHG SVR LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THREAT CURRENTLY
APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR ANOTHER WW.  WW 459 EXPIRED AT 5Z ACROSS SRN
IA AND NRN MO...AND WAS NOT EXTENDED DUE TO MRGL/ISOLATED NATURE OF
SVR RISK.

..EDWARDS/BROYLES.. 07/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON   39699346 39919300 40209280 40379277 40299152 40189044
            39429031 38909115 39519307 39699346






000
ACUS11 KWNS 290631
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290631
ILZ000-MOZ000-290900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1568
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NO...WRN IL.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 290631Z - 290900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LINE OF TSTMS WITH INTERMITTENT/SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS WILL
OFFER LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS APCHG SVR LIMITS.
GIVEN LOW COVERAGE AND MRGL ORGANIZATION/MAGNITUDE OF RISK...WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

DISCUSSION...LEADING EDGE AND STRONGEST SEGMENT OF STG TSTM BAND
EXTENDED AT 06Z FROM WRN SCHUYLER COUNTY MO SWWD TO NEAR CDJ.  FROM
THAT AREA WWD...CONVECTION WAS INCREASINGLY FAR BEHIND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT WAS PROCEEDING SEWD ACROSS NWRN MO AND SHOULD REMAIN
DECIDEDLY SUB-SVR.  NERN MO SEGMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE CLOSEST
ACCESS TO FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING EWD ACROSS MS RIVER.  MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS FOR
PROJECTED PATH ESEWD INTO WRN IL HAVE 1.6-2.1-INCH PW AND 16-19 G/KG
MEAN MIXING RATIOS...AND 00Z 850-MB CHART SHOWED 16.5-17.5 DEG C DEW
POINTS UPSTREAM.  THIS SUPPORTS MUCAPE ABOVE 3000 J/KG...AND MLCAPE
REMAINING IN 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  EFFECTIVE
INFLOW PARCELS APPEAR TO REMAIN SFC-BASED...ALBEIT INCLUDING
SHALLOW/COOL NEAR-SFC LAYER AND SBCINH INCREASING WITH TIME.

SFC DEW POINT AT IRK PLUMMETED 11 DEG F TO 65 IN AN HOUR FROM
04Z-05Z BEHIND WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION FARTHER
NE...AND ROSE ONLY A DEGREE BY 06Z.  HOWEVER...THAT OBSERVATION IS
SUSPECT GIVEN HIGHER/LITTLE-CHANGED POST-OUTFLOW DEW POINTS TO ITS
NE...AND LACK OF APPARENT HEATBURST/WARMING PROCESSES THAT ALSO
WOULD PERFORM DRYING.  THIS OB MAY RENDER LOW BIAS TO MOISTURE/CAPE
FIELDS IN OBJECTIVE ANALYSES....BUT OVERALL BUOYANCY AND CINH SHOULD
DECREASE GRADUALLY WITH TIME AMIDST NOCTURNAL/DIABATIC COOLING.
NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR UPSCALE ORGANIZATION/INTENSIFICATION BESIDES
CINH INCLUDE
1. WARMER AIR ALOFT AND DECREASING EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES WITH
EWD EXTENT IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER RIDGE...AND
2. RELATIVELY WEAK/VEERED NATURE OF 850-MB FLOW -- I.E. ONLY 15-25
KT BASED ON REGIONAL VWP AND WLY...WHICH IS ALONG STORM-MOTION
VECTOR AND WHICH YIELDS LESS THAN 10 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW.

LOCAL BOWING SEGMENTS MAY OFFER WEAKLY REAR-INFLOW-ASSISTED/
WATER-LOADED GUSTS APCHG SVR LEVELS...BUT OVERALL THREAT CURRENTLY
APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR ANOTHER WW.  WW 459 EXPIRED AT 5Z ACROSS SRN
IA AND NRN MO...AND WAS NOT EXTENDED DUE TO MRGL/ISOLATED NATURE OF
SVR RISK.

..EDWARDS/BROYLES.. 07/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON   39699346 39919300 40209280 40379277 40299152 40189044
            39429031 38909115 39519307 39699346





000
ACUS02 KWNS 290600
SWODY2
SPC AC 290559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES/NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS OTHER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SEMI-AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE
CONUS ON THURSDAY. AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES...WITH A
COLD FRONT ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

...NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY...WEAK TO MODERATE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED AS A
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER/WIDELY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PRECEDE THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE
BUOYANCY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN AREAS SPANNING EASTERN PA/NJ INTO
EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WHERE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE DAY /30-35 KT WITH
STRONGER SHEAR ARRIVING AT NIGHT/ WILL SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM
MODES INCLUDING MULTICELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY A
DAMAGING-WIND RISK. PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR THE POSSIBILITY A CATEGORICAL
SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE.

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHEAST STATES...
WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...A FEW CONVECTIVELY RELATED
DISTURBANCES/MODESTLY ENHANCED NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST STATES ON
THURSDAY. THESE FACTORS MAY FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNBURST/ VERY
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY...
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MODESTLY AMPLIFIES/SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE REGION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN A MARGINALLY
MOIST/WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED GUSTY WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE COINCIDENT WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
ON THE IMMEDIATE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...A FEW STRONGER
STORMS /WIND AS MAIN POTENTIAL ASIDE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/ MAY
OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INCLUDING PARTS OF NORTHEAST NM INTO SOUTHWEST KS AND TX/OK
PANHANDLES...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN AZ/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...SEVERE PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY APPEAR TOO MARGINAL GIVEN
GENERAL EXPECTATIONS OF WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND/OR WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR.

..GUYER.. 07/29/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 290600
SWODY2
SPC AC 290559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES/NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS OTHER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SEMI-AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE
CONUS ON THURSDAY. AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES...WITH A
COLD FRONT ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

...NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY...WEAK TO MODERATE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED AS A
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER/WIDELY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PRECEDE THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE
BUOYANCY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN AREAS SPANNING EASTERN PA/NJ INTO
EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WHERE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE DAY /30-35 KT WITH
STRONGER SHEAR ARRIVING AT NIGHT/ WILL SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM
MODES INCLUDING MULTICELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY A
DAMAGING-WIND RISK. PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR THE POSSIBILITY A CATEGORICAL
SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE.

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHEAST STATES...
WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...A FEW CONVECTIVELY RELATED
DISTURBANCES/MODESTLY ENHANCED NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST STATES ON
THURSDAY. THESE FACTORS MAY FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNBURST/ VERY
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY...
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MODESTLY AMPLIFIES/SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE REGION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN A MARGINALLY
MOIST/WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED GUSTY WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE COINCIDENT WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
ON THE IMMEDIATE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...A FEW STRONGER
STORMS /WIND AS MAIN POTENTIAL ASIDE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/ MAY
OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INCLUDING PARTS OF NORTHEAST NM INTO SOUTHWEST KS AND TX/OK
PANHANDLES...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN AZ/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...SEVERE PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY APPEAR TOO MARGINAL GIVEN
GENERAL EXPECTATIONS OF WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND/OR WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR.

..GUYER.. 07/29/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 290600
SWODY2
SPC AC 290559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES/NEW ENGLAND...AS WELL AS OTHER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST STATES...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SEMI-AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE
CONUS ON THURSDAY. AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES...WITH A
COLD FRONT ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

...NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY...WEAK TO MODERATE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED AS A
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER/WIDELY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PRECEDE THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE
BUOYANCY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN AREAS SPANNING EASTERN PA/NJ INTO
EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WHERE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE DAY /30-35 KT WITH
STRONGER SHEAR ARRIVING AT NIGHT/ WILL SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM
MODES INCLUDING MULTICELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY A
DAMAGING-WIND RISK. PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR THE POSSIBILITY A CATEGORICAL
SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE.

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHEAST STATES...
WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...A FEW CONVECTIVELY RELATED
DISTURBANCES/MODESTLY ENHANCED NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST STATES ON
THURSDAY. THESE FACTORS MAY FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNBURST/ VERY
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY...
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MODESTLY AMPLIFIES/SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
THE REGION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN A MARGINALLY
MOIST/WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED GUSTY WINDS
MAY BE POSSIBLE COINCIDENT WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
ON THE IMMEDIATE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...A FEW STRONGER
STORMS /WIND AS MAIN POTENTIAL ASIDE FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/ MAY
OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INCLUDING PARTS OF NORTHEAST NM INTO SOUTHWEST KS AND TX/OK
PANHANDLES...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHERN AZ/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...SEVERE PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY APPEAR TOO MARGINAL GIVEN
GENERAL EXPECTATIONS OF WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND/OR WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR.

..GUYER.. 07/29/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 290519
SWODY1
SPC AC 290518

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN LOWER MI TO THE CNTRL
GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...MIDWEST TO CNTRL GULF COAST...

WEAK/NEUTRAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY.  THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WHERE SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED IN
ADVANCE OF PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG SPEED MAX...ON THE ORDER OF 60KT...WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO WI BY 30/00Z.  THIS
FEATURE WILL BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR EWD PROGRESSION OF SFC FRONT
WHICH SHOULD ADVANCE TO A POSITION FROM WRN LOWER MI...SWWD INTO SRN
MO BY 18Z.  MUCH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WEAKLY FORCED BUT
EARLY-DAY CONVECTION COULD BE NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY MO/IL WHERE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT STORMS SHOULD
BE OBSERVED AT SUNRISE.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY PROGRESS SEWD AROUND THE
SRN PLAINS ANTICYCLONE AND PERHAPS REJUVENATE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH.  OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT
OF THE DAY ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES WHERE NELY 500MB FLOW WILL
BE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20KT...SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A FEW ROBUST
MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS.  OVERALL...CONVECTIVE PATTERN FAVORS ONLY
ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION WEDNESDAY.

..DARROW/COHEN.. 07/29/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 290519
SWODY1
SPC AC 290518

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN LOWER MI TO THE CNTRL
GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...MIDWEST TO CNTRL GULF COAST...

WEAK/NEUTRAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY.  THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WHERE SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED IN
ADVANCE OF PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG SPEED MAX...ON THE ORDER OF 60KT...WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO WI BY 30/00Z.  THIS
FEATURE WILL BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR EWD PROGRESSION OF SFC FRONT
WHICH SHOULD ADVANCE TO A POSITION FROM WRN LOWER MI...SWWD INTO SRN
MO BY 18Z.  MUCH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WEAKLY FORCED BUT
EARLY-DAY CONVECTION COULD BE NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY MO/IL WHERE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT STORMS SHOULD
BE OBSERVED AT SUNRISE.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY PROGRESS SEWD AROUND THE
SRN PLAINS ANTICYCLONE AND PERHAPS REJUVENATE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH.  OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT
OF THE DAY ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES WHERE NELY 500MB FLOW WILL
BE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20KT...SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A FEW ROBUST
MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS.  OVERALL...CONVECTIVE PATTERN FAVORS ONLY
ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION WEDNESDAY.

..DARROW/COHEN.. 07/29/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 290519
SWODY1
SPC AC 290518

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN LOWER MI TO THE CNTRL
GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...MIDWEST TO CNTRL GULF COAST...

WEAK/NEUTRAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS
EAST OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY.  THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WHERE SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED IN
ADVANCE OF PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG SPEED MAX...ON THE ORDER OF 60KT...WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO WI BY 30/00Z.  THIS
FEATURE WILL BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR EWD PROGRESSION OF SFC FRONT
WHICH SHOULD ADVANCE TO A POSITION FROM WRN LOWER MI...SWWD INTO SRN
MO BY 18Z.  MUCH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WEAKLY FORCED BUT
EARLY-DAY CONVECTION COULD BE NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY MO/IL WHERE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT STORMS SHOULD
BE OBSERVED AT SUNRISE.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY PROGRESS SEWD AROUND THE
SRN PLAINS ANTICYCLONE AND PERHAPS REJUVENATE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH.  OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT
OF THE DAY ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES WHERE NELY 500MB FLOW WILL
BE ON THE ORDER OF 15-20KT...SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A FEW ROBUST
MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS.  OVERALL...CONVECTIVE PATTERN FAVORS ONLY
ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION WEDNESDAY.

..DARROW/COHEN.. 07/29/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 290347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290346
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-290515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1567
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA THROUGH NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459...

VALID 290346Z - 290515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 05Z AT WHICH TIME WW
459 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE DUE TO ANTICIPATED WEAKENING OF
STORMS. IN THE MEANTIME A MODEST THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND WILL PERSIST FROM NRN MO INTO SERN IA.

DISCUSSION...MCS CONTINUES DEVELOPING SEWD THROUGH SRN IA AND NRN
MO. MOST OF THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON COOL SIDE OF ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...THE BOWING SEGMENT WITH
COMMA HEAD OVER SE IA HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO WEAKEN. THESE TRENDS ARE
INDICATIVE OF INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WHICH IN ADDITION
TO LIMITED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ONLY A WEAK WSWLY LLJ SUGGEST AN
OVERALL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD PERSIST. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR TERM AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES
ESEWD.

..DIAL.. 07/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   40279518 40629428 40789269 41459191 41349106 40719106
            40249199 40069302 40049384 39889490 40049536 40279518






000
ACUS11 KWNS 290347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290346
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-290515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1567
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA THROUGH NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459...

VALID 290346Z - 290515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 05Z AT WHICH TIME WW
459 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE DUE TO ANTICIPATED WEAKENING OF
STORMS. IN THE MEANTIME A MODEST THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND WILL PERSIST FROM NRN MO INTO SERN IA.

DISCUSSION...MCS CONTINUES DEVELOPING SEWD THROUGH SRN IA AND NRN
MO. MOST OF THE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON COOL SIDE OF ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION...THE BOWING SEGMENT WITH
COMMA HEAD OVER SE IA HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO WEAKEN. THESE TRENDS ARE
INDICATIVE OF INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WHICH IN ADDITION
TO LIMITED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ONLY A WEAK WSWLY LLJ SUGGEST AN
OVERALL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD PERSIST. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR TERM AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES
ESEWD.

..DIAL.. 07/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   40279518 40629428 40789269 41459191 41349106 40719106
            40249199 40069302 40049384 39889490 40049536 40279518





000
ACUS11 KWNS 290104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290104
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-290300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1566
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS THROUGH EXTREME SERN NEB...SRN IA...NRN MO
AND EXTREME WCNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459...

VALID 290104Z - 290300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS REMAINING PORTION OF WW 459 WITH GREATEST
THREAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER SRN IA NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL IA
SWWD TO NERN KS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER SRN IA
EXTENDING INTO SWRN IA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
COLD FRONT. STORMS ARE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG IA PORTION OF THE FRONT
AND JUST NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH AN
AXIS OF 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER SRN IA AND NRN MO. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
INTO EXTREME NRN MO AND WCNTRL IL. DES MOINES VWP INDICATE SUPERCELL
WIND PROFILES WITH 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR JUST NORTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. TENDENCY WILL REMAIN FOR MOST STORMS TO BE
UNDERCUT BY THIS SWD ADVANCING BOUNDARY WHICH ALONG WITH ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD LIMIT ANY TORNADO THREAT GIVEN ITS STABLE
CHARACTERISTICS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL.

TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SWRN EXTENT INTO NERN
KS WHERE THE 00Z RAOB FROM TOPEKA INDICATES AN INVERSION NEAR 850
MB...AND SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL UNDERGO A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THIS POTENTIALLY HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECTED LIMITED INCREASE IN THE
NOCTURNAL LLJ LOWER CONFIDENCE IN REDEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA.

..DIAL.. 07/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39349709 40769573 41839439 42039299 41639131 40849109
            40319278 39589468 38919686 39349709






000
ACUS11 KWNS 290104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290104
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-290300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1566
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS THROUGH EXTREME SERN NEB...SRN IA...NRN MO
AND EXTREME WCNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459...

VALID 290104Z - 290300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS REMAINING PORTION OF WW 459 WITH GREATEST
THREAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER SRN IA NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL IA
SWWD TO NERN KS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER SRN IA
EXTENDING INTO SWRN IA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
COLD FRONT. STORMS ARE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG IA PORTION OF THE FRONT
AND JUST NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH AN
AXIS OF 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER SRN IA AND NRN MO. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
INTO EXTREME NRN MO AND WCNTRL IL. DES MOINES VWP INDICATE SUPERCELL
WIND PROFILES WITH 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR JUST NORTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. TENDENCY WILL REMAIN FOR MOST STORMS TO BE
UNDERCUT BY THIS SWD ADVANCING BOUNDARY WHICH ALONG WITH ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD LIMIT ANY TORNADO THREAT GIVEN ITS STABLE
CHARACTERISTICS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL.

TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SWRN EXTENT INTO NERN
KS WHERE THE 00Z RAOB FROM TOPEKA INDICATES AN INVERSION NEAR 850
MB...AND SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL UNDERGO A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THIS POTENTIALLY HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECTED LIMITED INCREASE IN THE
NOCTURNAL LLJ LOWER CONFIDENCE IN REDEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA.

..DIAL.. 07/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39349709 40769573 41839439 42039299 41639131 40849109
            40319278 39589468 38919686 39349709





000
ACUS11 KWNS 290104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290104
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-290300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1566
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS THROUGH EXTREME SERN NEB...SRN IA...NRN MO
AND EXTREME WCNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459...

VALID 290104Z - 290300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS REMAINING PORTION OF WW 459 WITH GREATEST
THREAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER SRN IA NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL IA
SWWD TO NERN KS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER SRN IA
EXTENDING INTO SWRN IA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
COLD FRONT. STORMS ARE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG IA PORTION OF THE FRONT
AND JUST NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH AN
AXIS OF 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER SRN IA AND NRN MO. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
INTO EXTREME NRN MO AND WCNTRL IL. DES MOINES VWP INDICATE SUPERCELL
WIND PROFILES WITH 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR JUST NORTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. TENDENCY WILL REMAIN FOR MOST STORMS TO BE
UNDERCUT BY THIS SWD ADVANCING BOUNDARY WHICH ALONG WITH ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD LIMIT ANY TORNADO THREAT GIVEN ITS STABLE
CHARACTERISTICS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL.

TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SWRN EXTENT INTO NERN
KS WHERE THE 00Z RAOB FROM TOPEKA INDICATES AN INVERSION NEAR 850
MB...AND SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL UNDERGO A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THIS POTENTIALLY HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECTED LIMITED INCREASE IN THE
NOCTURNAL LLJ LOWER CONFIDENCE IN REDEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA.

..DIAL.. 07/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39349709 40769573 41839439 42039299 41639131 40849109
            40319278 39589468 38919686 39349709





000
ACUS11 KWNS 290104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290104
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-290300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1566
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS THROUGH EXTREME SERN NEB...SRN IA...NRN MO
AND EXTREME WCNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459...

VALID 290104Z - 290300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS REMAINING PORTION OF WW 459 WITH GREATEST
THREAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER SRN IA NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL IA
SWWD TO NERN KS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER SRN IA
EXTENDING INTO SWRN IA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
COLD FRONT. STORMS ARE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG IA PORTION OF THE FRONT
AND JUST NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH AN
AXIS OF 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER SRN IA AND NRN MO. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
INTO EXTREME NRN MO AND WCNTRL IL. DES MOINES VWP INDICATE SUPERCELL
WIND PROFILES WITH 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR JUST NORTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. TENDENCY WILL REMAIN FOR MOST STORMS TO BE
UNDERCUT BY THIS SWD ADVANCING BOUNDARY WHICH ALONG WITH ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD LIMIT ANY TORNADO THREAT GIVEN ITS STABLE
CHARACTERISTICS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL.

TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SWRN EXTENT INTO NERN
KS WHERE THE 00Z RAOB FROM TOPEKA INDICATES AN INVERSION NEAR 850
MB...AND SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL UNDERGO A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THIS POTENTIALLY HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECTED LIMITED INCREASE IN THE
NOCTURNAL LLJ LOWER CONFIDENCE IN REDEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA.

..DIAL.. 07/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39349709 40769573 41839439 42039299 41639131 40849109
            40319278 39589468 38919686 39349709






000
ACUS01 KWNS 290027
SWODY1
SPC AC 290025

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID
MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN KS TO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ALONG A COLD
FRONT FROM SOUTHERN IOWA SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBS ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
KANSAS FOR EXPECTED INCREASE IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING.  LATEST VIS
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CONVECTION ALONG THE WIND SHIFT FROM SERN
NEBRASKA...SWWD TO NEAR SLN.  SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST TSTMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE HOT ACROSS CNTRL KS WHERE IT REMAINS
100F AT SLN.  GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT CONGLOMERATES AND SLOWLY SAGS SEWD.

..DARROW.. 07/29/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 290027
SWODY1
SPC AC 290025

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID
MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN KS TO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ALONG A COLD
FRONT FROM SOUTHERN IOWA SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBS ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
KANSAS FOR EXPECTED INCREASE IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING.  LATEST VIS
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CONVECTION ALONG THE WIND SHIFT FROM SERN
NEBRASKA...SWWD TO NEAR SLN.  SHORT-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST TSTMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SFC TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE HOT ACROSS CNTRL KS WHERE IT REMAINS
100F AT SLN.  GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY AS IT CONGLOMERATES AND SLOWLY SAGS SEWD.

..DARROW.. 07/29/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 282151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282150
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-290015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL KS
INTO NERN KS AND FAR NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 282150Z - 290015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ACROSS
THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...A SLOW-MOVING/STALLING SFC BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM
NEAR BEATRICE NEB TO E OF DODGE CITY KS TO AMARILLO TX...AND
INSTABILITY IS BECOMING STRONG ALONG AND ON THE WARM SIDE /E AND S
SIDE/ OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG WITH LITTLE INHIBITION REMAINING. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PATCHY...BOUNDARY-LAYER-BASED CUMULUS
FIELDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED INVOF THE BOUNDARY AS THE PBL
HAS DEEPENED WITH SFC TEMPS HAVING REACHED 95-103F ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BECOME INTENSE OWING TO
THE STRONG INSTABILITY. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
DCAPE AROUND 1200-1600 J/KG WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DOWNDRAFTS
WITH A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE LARGE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME SVR HAIL POTENTIAL. FURTHERMORE...THE STALLING
NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FRONTAL-ZONE RESIDENCE TIME
FOR TSTMS TO INTERACT WITH RELATED BOUNDARY-ENHANCED VERTICAL
VORTICITY TO BE STRETCHED FOR A NON-ZERO -- ALBEIT LOW -- TORNADO
POTENTIAL.

HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OVER 25 KT ARE GENERALLY
DISPLACED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SVR POTENTIAL WILL
BE VERY LIMITED IN THE HIGH-MLCINH ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...TSTMS MAY
STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SVR POTENTIAL...LIKELY PRECLUDING WW ISSUANCE.
REGARDLESS...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED -- PARTICULARLY IN
NERN KS TO FAR NWRN MO THAT WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE TAIL
END OF A GLANCING MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION LOCALLY ENHANCING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THESE AREAS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP SHEAR
RELATED TO THIS FEATURE MAY ENCOURAGE AN EVOLUTION TO MORE ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH A SOMEWHAT GREATER SVR RISK.

..COHEN/HART.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   39799726 39949478 39619450 39349500 38809632 38139734
            36130013 35120209 35280259 35660240 38089959 39799726






000
ACUS11 KWNS 282151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282150
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-290015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL KS
INTO NERN KS AND FAR NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 282150Z - 290015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ACROSS
THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...A SLOW-MOVING/STALLING SFC BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM
NEAR BEATRICE NEB TO E OF DODGE CITY KS TO AMARILLO TX...AND
INSTABILITY IS BECOMING STRONG ALONG AND ON THE WARM SIDE /E AND S
SIDE/ OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG WITH LITTLE INHIBITION REMAINING. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PATCHY...BOUNDARY-LAYER-BASED CUMULUS
FIELDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED INVOF THE BOUNDARY AS THE PBL
HAS DEEPENED WITH SFC TEMPS HAVING REACHED 95-103F ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BECOME INTENSE OWING TO
THE STRONG INSTABILITY. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
DCAPE AROUND 1200-1600 J/KG WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DOWNDRAFTS
WITH A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE LARGE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME SVR HAIL POTENTIAL. FURTHERMORE...THE STALLING
NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FRONTAL-ZONE RESIDENCE TIME
FOR TSTMS TO INTERACT WITH RELATED BOUNDARY-ENHANCED VERTICAL
VORTICITY TO BE STRETCHED FOR A NON-ZERO -- ALBEIT LOW -- TORNADO
POTENTIAL.

HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OVER 25 KT ARE GENERALLY
DISPLACED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SVR POTENTIAL WILL
BE VERY LIMITED IN THE HIGH-MLCINH ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...TSTMS MAY
STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SVR POTENTIAL...LIKELY PRECLUDING WW ISSUANCE.
REGARDLESS...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED -- PARTICULARLY IN
NERN KS TO FAR NWRN MO THAT WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE TAIL
END OF A GLANCING MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION LOCALLY ENHANCING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THESE AREAS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP SHEAR
RELATED TO THIS FEATURE MAY ENCOURAGE AN EVOLUTION TO MORE ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH A SOMEWHAT GREATER SVR RISK.

..COHEN/HART.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   39799726 39949478 39619450 39349500 38809632 38139734
            36130013 35120209 35280259 35660240 38089959 39799726






000
ACUS11 KWNS 282151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282150
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-290015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL KS
INTO NERN KS AND FAR NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 282150Z - 290015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ACROSS
THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...A SLOW-MOVING/STALLING SFC BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM
NEAR BEATRICE NEB TO E OF DODGE CITY KS TO AMARILLO TX...AND
INSTABILITY IS BECOMING STRONG ALONG AND ON THE WARM SIDE /E AND S
SIDE/ OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG WITH LITTLE INHIBITION REMAINING. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PATCHY...BOUNDARY-LAYER-BASED CUMULUS
FIELDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED INVOF THE BOUNDARY AS THE PBL
HAS DEEPENED WITH SFC TEMPS HAVING REACHED 95-103F ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BECOME INTENSE OWING TO
THE STRONG INSTABILITY. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
DCAPE AROUND 1200-1600 J/KG WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DOWNDRAFTS
WITH A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE LARGE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME SVR HAIL POTENTIAL. FURTHERMORE...THE STALLING
NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FRONTAL-ZONE RESIDENCE TIME
FOR TSTMS TO INTERACT WITH RELATED BOUNDARY-ENHANCED VERTICAL
VORTICITY TO BE STRETCHED FOR A NON-ZERO -- ALBEIT LOW -- TORNADO
POTENTIAL.

HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OVER 25 KT ARE GENERALLY
DISPLACED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SVR POTENTIAL WILL
BE VERY LIMITED IN THE HIGH-MLCINH ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...TSTMS MAY
STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SVR POTENTIAL...LIKELY PRECLUDING WW ISSUANCE.
REGARDLESS...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED -- PARTICULARLY IN
NERN KS TO FAR NWRN MO THAT WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE TAIL
END OF A GLANCING MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION LOCALLY ENHANCING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THESE AREAS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP SHEAR
RELATED TO THIS FEATURE MAY ENCOURAGE AN EVOLUTION TO MORE ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH A SOMEWHAT GREATER SVR RISK.

..COHEN/HART.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   39799726 39949478 39619450 39349500 38809632 38139734
            36130013 35120209 35280259 35660240 38089959 39799726





000
ACUS11 KWNS 282151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282150
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-290015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL KS
INTO NERN KS AND FAR NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 282150Z - 290015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ACROSS
THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...A SLOW-MOVING/STALLING SFC BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM
NEAR BEATRICE NEB TO E OF DODGE CITY KS TO AMARILLO TX...AND
INSTABILITY IS BECOMING STRONG ALONG AND ON THE WARM SIDE /E AND S
SIDE/ OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG WITH LITTLE INHIBITION REMAINING. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PATCHY...BOUNDARY-LAYER-BASED CUMULUS
FIELDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED INVOF THE BOUNDARY AS THE PBL
HAS DEEPENED WITH SFC TEMPS HAVING REACHED 95-103F ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BECOME INTENSE OWING TO
THE STRONG INSTABILITY. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
DCAPE AROUND 1200-1600 J/KG WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DOWNDRAFTS
WITH A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE LARGE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME SVR HAIL POTENTIAL. FURTHERMORE...THE STALLING
NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FRONTAL-ZONE RESIDENCE TIME
FOR TSTMS TO INTERACT WITH RELATED BOUNDARY-ENHANCED VERTICAL
VORTICITY TO BE STRETCHED FOR A NON-ZERO -- ALBEIT LOW -- TORNADO
POTENTIAL.

HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OVER 25 KT ARE GENERALLY
DISPLACED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SVR POTENTIAL WILL
BE VERY LIMITED IN THE HIGH-MLCINH ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...TSTMS MAY
STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SVR POTENTIAL...LIKELY PRECLUDING WW ISSUANCE.
REGARDLESS...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED -- PARTICULARLY IN
NERN KS TO FAR NWRN MO THAT WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE TAIL
END OF A GLANCING MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION LOCALLY ENHANCING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THESE AREAS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP SHEAR
RELATED TO THIS FEATURE MAY ENCOURAGE AN EVOLUTION TO MORE ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH A SOMEWHAT GREATER SVR RISK.

..COHEN/HART.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   39799726 39949478 39619450 39349500 38809632 38139734
            36130013 35120209 35280259 35660240 38089959 39799726





000
ACUS11 KWNS 282040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282040
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-282245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1564
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NEB/PARTS OF WESTERN...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IA/EXTREME NORTHERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 282040Z - 282245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB INTO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA...WITH ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY
SPREADING INTO FAR NORTHERN MO.  WW ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST IA AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...AND AT 20Z THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM WRN MN SSWWD
THROUGH NORTHWEST IA /30 W SPW/ TO 30 ESE OLU TO 15 WNW CNK.
MEANWHILE...AS INDICATED IN THE RECENT SWODY1...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAS RETURNED NWD THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE LATE MORNING POSITION ALONG
THE MO/IA BORDER.  THIS BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE
INTERSECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT IN DODGE COUNTY NEB EWD THROUGH
WESTERN IA /ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80/ TO NEAR DSM...AND THEN INTO
SOUTHEAST IA.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR HAS BOOSTED AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 90 F...WHILE SLY WINDS AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
HAVE RESULTED IN SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER
70S...RESULTING IN RECENT REDUCTION IN SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION.
THIS COMBINED WITH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C
PER KM/ IS CONTRIBUTING TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3500
J PER KG/.  VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH SWLY 500-MB FLOW
OF 35 KT HAS ALLOWED FOR BULK SHEAR TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS.  DESPITE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS/KINEMATICS...
RECENT TRENDS IN THE CU FIELD ACROSS ERN NEB AND WEST-CENTRAL/SWRN
IA DO NOT INDICATE STRONG VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  THIS MAY BE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER
MCS AND APPARENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING PRESENT ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  MEANWHILE...SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEB MAY BE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE ADVANCING NEWD
FROM NERN CO.  ALTHOUGH MOST SHORT-TERM MODELS LACK ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE APPROACHING
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB INTO SWRN IA BY 22-23Z.

..PETERS/GOSS.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON   40909663 41559618 41829528 41859380 41569246 41009175
            40659179 40349301 40239443 40089522 40049591 40099655
            40309697 40909663





000
ACUS11 KWNS 282040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282040
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-282245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1564
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NEB/PARTS OF WESTERN...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IA/EXTREME NORTHERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 282040Z - 282245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB INTO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA...WITH ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY
SPREADING INTO FAR NORTHERN MO.  WW ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWED A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST IA AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...AND AT 20Z THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM WRN MN SSWWD
THROUGH NORTHWEST IA /30 W SPW/ TO 30 ESE OLU TO 15 WNW CNK.
MEANWHILE...AS INDICATED IN THE RECENT SWODY1...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAS RETURNED NWD THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE LATE MORNING POSITION ALONG
THE MO/IA BORDER.  THIS BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE
INTERSECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT IN DODGE COUNTY NEB EWD THROUGH
WESTERN IA /ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80/ TO NEAR DSM...AND THEN INTO
SOUTHEAST IA.

STRONG SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR HAS BOOSTED AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 90 F...WHILE SLY WINDS AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
HAVE RESULTED IN SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER
70S...RESULTING IN RECENT REDUCTION IN SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION.
THIS COMBINED WITH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C
PER KM/ IS CONTRIBUTING TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3500
J PER KG/.  VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH SWLY 500-MB FLOW
OF 35 KT HAS ALLOWED FOR BULK SHEAR TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS.  DESPITE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS/KINEMATICS...
RECENT TRENDS IN THE CU FIELD ACROSS ERN NEB AND WEST-CENTRAL/SWRN
IA DO NOT INDICATE STRONG VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT PER VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  THIS MAY BE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER
MCS AND APPARENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING PRESENT ACROSS ERN NEB/WRN IA PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  MEANWHILE...SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL NEB MAY BE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE ADVANCING NEWD
FROM NERN CO.  ALTHOUGH MOST SHORT-TERM MODELS LACK ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE APPROACHING
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB INTO SWRN IA BY 22-23Z.

..PETERS/GOSS.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON   40909663 41559618 41829528 41859380 41569246 41009175
            40659179 40349301 40239443 40089522 40049591 40099655
            40309697 40909663






000
ACUS01 KWNS 281911
SWODY1
SPC AC 281910

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB ACROSS IA AND INTO
FAR NWRN IL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MINNESOTA TO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND VICINITY.  WITHIN THAT SWATH...THE MOST
PROBABLE AREA FOR GREATER CONCENTRATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
TO BE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA.  A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

...ERN NEB...IA...NWRN IL...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO RETREAT NWD ACROSS IA AND ERN
NEB...INTERSECTING THE COLD FRONT W OF OMAHA AND EXTENDING EWD
TOWARD DES MOINES AS OF 19Z. CONTINUED HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD AID IN SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO GIVEN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE WITH TIME WHICH WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY WIND.

...ERN NEW ENGLAND...
ISOLATED STORMS HAVE FORMED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG HEATING AND
A STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT N OF THE UPPER JET STREAK.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY FURTHER AND PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL
MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF ME...NH...ERN MA AND RI. LONG
HODOGRAPHS SHOULD HELP MAXIMIZE HAIL POTENTIAL DESPITE HAVING
RELATIVELY WARM 500 MB TEMPERATURES. EXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA
SWD TO RI FOR STORMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ACROSS MA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563.

..JEWELL.. 07/28/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A SERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
SEWD -- BRUSHING NEW ENGLAND AS IT PASSES...THE MAIN FEATURE WITHIN
THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL BE A SECOND LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
SRN SASKATCHEWAN.  THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY ENEWD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE...REACHING WRN ONTARIO LATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS...AND SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD THE KS/OK VICINITY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS KS...
A SUB-SEVERE MCS CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS ERN IA ATTM...WITH TRAILING
OUTFLOW EXTENDING WWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER INTO SERN NEB.
WHILE THIS MCS APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- POSSIBLY TURNING SEWD WITH TIME INTO NRN
IL...OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

FARTHER N ACROSS MN/WI...THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS BEEN
SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECTED BY EARLIER CONVECTION...WITH LINGERING CLOUD
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  THOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
MAY STILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL DUE TO LACK OF GREATER
BUOYANCY -- AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5%/MRGL RISK ACROSS THIS
AREA.

SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO EXIST FARTHER SWD ALONG THE
FRONT INTO ERN NEB...WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON INVOF THE INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM THE IA MCS.  WHILE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THIS REGION AS WILL STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FLOW...BACKED/ESELY FLOW NEAR/N OF THE OUTFLOW MAY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS -- WITH ATTENDANT
WIND/HAIL RISK AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE WITH TIME INTO LINES/CLUSTERS...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL REMAINING POSSIBLE AS STORMS SPREAD EWD ACROSS IA/NRN MO
THROUGH THE EVENING.

...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...
LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING CU FIELD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW ENGLAND...AS INSOLATION/BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IN CONJUNCTION
WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION.  SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE THROUGH PEAK HEATING...AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW MAY
SUPPORT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WHICH COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR
GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING OR JUST REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.  CONVECTION
WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET AS THE AIRMASS DIURNALLY
STABILIZES.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 281911
SWODY1
SPC AC 281910

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB ACROSS IA AND INTO
FAR NWRN IL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MINNESOTA TO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND VICINITY.  WITHIN THAT SWATH...THE MOST
PROBABLE AREA FOR GREATER CONCENTRATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
TO BE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA.  A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

...ERN NEB...IA...NWRN IL...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO RETREAT NWD ACROSS IA AND ERN
NEB...INTERSECTING THE COLD FRONT W OF OMAHA AND EXTENDING EWD
TOWARD DES MOINES AS OF 19Z. CONTINUED HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD AID IN SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO GIVEN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE WITH TIME WHICH WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY WIND.

...ERN NEW ENGLAND...
ISOLATED STORMS HAVE FORMED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG HEATING AND
A STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT N OF THE UPPER JET STREAK.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY FURTHER AND PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL
MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF ME...NH...ERN MA AND RI. LONG
HODOGRAPHS SHOULD HELP MAXIMIZE HAIL POTENTIAL DESPITE HAVING
RELATIVELY WARM 500 MB TEMPERATURES. EXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA
SWD TO RI FOR STORMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ACROSS MA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563.

..JEWELL.. 07/28/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A SERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
SEWD -- BRUSHING NEW ENGLAND AS IT PASSES...THE MAIN FEATURE WITHIN
THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL BE A SECOND LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
SRN SASKATCHEWAN.  THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY ENEWD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE...REACHING WRN ONTARIO LATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS...AND SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD THE KS/OK VICINITY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS KS...
A SUB-SEVERE MCS CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS ERN IA ATTM...WITH TRAILING
OUTFLOW EXTENDING WWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER INTO SERN NEB.
WHILE THIS MCS APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- POSSIBLY TURNING SEWD WITH TIME INTO NRN
IL...OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

FARTHER N ACROSS MN/WI...THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS BEEN
SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECTED BY EARLIER CONVECTION...WITH LINGERING CLOUD
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  THOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
MAY STILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL DUE TO LACK OF GREATER
BUOYANCY -- AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5%/MRGL RISK ACROSS THIS
AREA.

SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO EXIST FARTHER SWD ALONG THE
FRONT INTO ERN NEB...WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON INVOF THE INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM THE IA MCS.  WHILE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THIS REGION AS WILL STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FLOW...BACKED/ESELY FLOW NEAR/N OF THE OUTFLOW MAY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS -- WITH ATTENDANT
WIND/HAIL RISK AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE WITH TIME INTO LINES/CLUSTERS...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL REMAINING POSSIBLE AS STORMS SPREAD EWD ACROSS IA/NRN MO
THROUGH THE EVENING.

...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...
LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING CU FIELD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW ENGLAND...AS INSOLATION/BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IN CONJUNCTION
WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION.  SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE THROUGH PEAK HEATING...AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW MAY
SUPPORT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WHICH COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR
GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING OR JUST REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.  CONVECTION
WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET AS THE AIRMASS DIURNALLY
STABILIZES.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 281911
SWODY1
SPC AC 281910

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB ACROSS IA AND INTO
FAR NWRN IL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MINNESOTA TO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND VICINITY.  WITHIN THAT SWATH...THE MOST
PROBABLE AREA FOR GREATER CONCENTRATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
TO BE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA.  A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

...ERN NEB...IA...NWRN IL...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO RETREAT NWD ACROSS IA AND ERN
NEB...INTERSECTING THE COLD FRONT W OF OMAHA AND EXTENDING EWD
TOWARD DES MOINES AS OF 19Z. CONTINUED HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD AID IN SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO GIVEN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE WITH TIME WHICH WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY WIND.

...ERN NEW ENGLAND...
ISOLATED STORMS HAVE FORMED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG HEATING AND
A STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT N OF THE UPPER JET STREAK.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY FURTHER AND PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL
MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF ME...NH...ERN MA AND RI. LONG
HODOGRAPHS SHOULD HELP MAXIMIZE HAIL POTENTIAL DESPITE HAVING
RELATIVELY WARM 500 MB TEMPERATURES. EXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA
SWD TO RI FOR STORMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ACROSS MA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563.

..JEWELL.. 07/28/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A SERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
SEWD -- BRUSHING NEW ENGLAND AS IT PASSES...THE MAIN FEATURE WITHIN
THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL BE A SECOND LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
SRN SASKATCHEWAN.  THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY ENEWD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE...REACHING WRN ONTARIO LATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS...AND SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD THE KS/OK VICINITY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS KS...
A SUB-SEVERE MCS CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS ERN IA ATTM...WITH TRAILING
OUTFLOW EXTENDING WWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER INTO SERN NEB.
WHILE THIS MCS APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- POSSIBLY TURNING SEWD WITH TIME INTO NRN
IL...OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

FARTHER N ACROSS MN/WI...THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS BEEN
SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECTED BY EARLIER CONVECTION...WITH LINGERING CLOUD
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  THOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
MAY STILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL DUE TO LACK OF GREATER
BUOYANCY -- AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5%/MRGL RISK ACROSS THIS
AREA.

SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO EXIST FARTHER SWD ALONG THE
FRONT INTO ERN NEB...WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON INVOF THE INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM THE IA MCS.  WHILE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THIS REGION AS WILL STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FLOW...BACKED/ESELY FLOW NEAR/N OF THE OUTFLOW MAY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS -- WITH ATTENDANT
WIND/HAIL RISK AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE WITH TIME INTO LINES/CLUSTERS...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL REMAINING POSSIBLE AS STORMS SPREAD EWD ACROSS IA/NRN MO
THROUGH THE EVENING.

...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...
LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING CU FIELD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW ENGLAND...AS INSOLATION/BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IN CONJUNCTION
WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION.  SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE THROUGH PEAK HEATING...AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW MAY
SUPPORT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WHICH COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR
GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING OR JUST REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.  CONVECTION
WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET AS THE AIRMASS DIURNALLY
STABILIZES.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 281911
SWODY1
SPC AC 281910

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB ACROSS IA AND INTO
FAR NWRN IL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MINNESOTA TO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND VICINITY.  WITHIN THAT SWATH...THE MOST
PROBABLE AREA FOR GREATER CONCENTRATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
TO BE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA.  A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

...ERN NEB...IA...NWRN IL...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO RETREAT NWD ACROSS IA AND ERN
NEB...INTERSECTING THE COLD FRONT W OF OMAHA AND EXTENDING EWD
TOWARD DES MOINES AS OF 19Z. CONTINUED HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD AID IN SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO GIVEN ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE WITH TIME WHICH WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY WIND.

...ERN NEW ENGLAND...
ISOLATED STORMS HAVE FORMED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG HEATING AND
A STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT N OF THE UPPER JET STREAK.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY FURTHER AND PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL
MAINLY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF ME...NH...ERN MA AND RI. LONG
HODOGRAPHS SHOULD HELP MAXIMIZE HAIL POTENTIAL DESPITE HAVING
RELATIVELY WARM 500 MB TEMPERATURES. EXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK AREA
SWD TO RI FOR STORMS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ACROSS MA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563.

..JEWELL.. 07/28/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A SERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
SEWD -- BRUSHING NEW ENGLAND AS IT PASSES...THE MAIN FEATURE WITHIN
THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL BE A SECOND LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
SRN SASKATCHEWAN.  THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY ENEWD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE...REACHING WRN ONTARIO LATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS...AND SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD THE KS/OK VICINITY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS KS...
A SUB-SEVERE MCS CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS ERN IA ATTM...WITH TRAILING
OUTFLOW EXTENDING WWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER INTO SERN NEB.
WHILE THIS MCS APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- POSSIBLY TURNING SEWD WITH TIME INTO NRN
IL...OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

FARTHER N ACROSS MN/WI...THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS BEEN
SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECTED BY EARLIER CONVECTION...WITH LINGERING CLOUD
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  THOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
MAY STILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL DUE TO LACK OF GREATER
BUOYANCY -- AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5%/MRGL RISK ACROSS THIS
AREA.

SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO EXIST FARTHER SWD ALONG THE
FRONT INTO ERN NEB...WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON INVOF THE INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM THE IA MCS.  WHILE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THIS REGION AS WILL STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FLOW...BACKED/ESELY FLOW NEAR/N OF THE OUTFLOW MAY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS -- WITH ATTENDANT
WIND/HAIL RISK AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE WITH TIME INTO LINES/CLUSTERS...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL REMAINING POSSIBLE AS STORMS SPREAD EWD ACROSS IA/NRN MO
THROUGH THE EVENING.

...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...
LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING CU FIELD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW ENGLAND...AS INSOLATION/BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IN CONJUNCTION
WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION.  SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE THROUGH PEAK HEATING...AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW MAY
SUPPORT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WHICH COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR
GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING OR JUST REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.  CONVECTION
WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET AS THE AIRMASS DIURNALLY
STABILIZES.






000
ACUS11 KWNS 281823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281822
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-282015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MAINE...VT...NH...MA...RI...AND CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281822Z - 282015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL INSTANCES OF MARGINAL HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE IS
UNLIKELY DUE TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINING TOO ISOLATED.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE PAST HOUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL MAINE TO THE S OF A WEAK FRONT OVER NRN
MAINE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE FURTHER TO
THE SW THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...DIURNAL HEATING ALONG
WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE HAS ALLOWED FOR RE-DESTABILIZATION
OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE
GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY AROUND 6.0 DEG
C/KM...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO
MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE MCD AREA PER LATEST RAP
MESOANALYSIS.

UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT...MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD TEND TO
LIMIT MORE ROBUST/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...SUCH AS ONE CURRENTLY MOVING SWD FROM FRANKLIN INTO
ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY MAINE AS OF 1820Z...WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WINDS
GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR. STRONGER BULK SHEAR ON
THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT IS PRESENT ACROSS NH...VT...AND MUCH OF
MA/RI/CT. BUT...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW LESS TOWERING
CU ACROSS THESE STATES COMPARED TO MUCH OF MAINE...WHICH CASTS DOUBT
ON EVENTUAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN THIS AREA OF STRONGER
BULK SHEAR...THEN THEY MAY POSE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL/WIND. REGARDLESS...THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE LIFT AND A MORE
OBVIOUS FORCING MECHANISM TO INITIATE CONVECTION LOOK TO KEEP THE
SEVERE THREAT TOO MARGINAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..GLEASON/GOSS.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON   44937282 45057165 45337128 45417073 45747022 46176970
            46346895 46356768 45766766 45506793 44986830 44506892
            43916991 43597038 43157073 42287098 41977089 41887152
            41867254 42207274 43487291 44937282





000
ACUS11 KWNS 281823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281822
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-282015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MAINE...VT...NH...MA...RI...AND CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 281822Z - 282015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL INSTANCES OF MARGINAL HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE IS
UNLIKELY DUE TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINING TOO ISOLATED.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE PAST HOUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL MAINE TO THE S OF A WEAK FRONT OVER NRN
MAINE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE FURTHER TO
THE SW THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT...DIURNAL HEATING ALONG
WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE HAS ALLOWED FOR RE-DESTABILIZATION
OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE
GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE 80S...AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY AROUND 6.0 DEG
C/KM...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO
MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE MCD AREA PER LATEST RAP
MESOANALYSIS.

UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT...MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD TEND TO
LIMIT MORE ROBUST/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...SUCH AS ONE CURRENTLY MOVING SWD FROM FRANKLIN INTO
ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY MAINE AS OF 1820Z...WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WINDS
GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR. STRONGER BULK SHEAR ON
THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT IS PRESENT ACROSS NH...VT...AND MUCH OF
MA/RI/CT. BUT...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW LESS TOWERING
CU ACROSS THESE STATES COMPARED TO MUCH OF MAINE...WHICH CASTS DOUBT
ON EVENTUAL COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES OR HIGHER TERRAIN IN THIS AREA OF STRONGER
BULK SHEAR...THEN THEY MAY POSE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL/WIND. REGARDLESS...THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE LIFT AND A MORE
OBVIOUS FORCING MECHANISM TO INITIATE CONVECTION LOOK TO KEEP THE
SEVERE THREAT TOO MARGINAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..GLEASON/GOSS.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON   44937282 45057165 45337128 45417073 45747022 46176970
            46346895 46356768 45766766 45506793 44986830 44506892
            43916991 43597038 43157073 42287098 41977089 41887152
            41867254 42207274 43487291 44937282






000
ACUS02 KWNS 281706
SWODY2
SPC AC 281705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY
SWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL NEWD ACROSS NRN ONTARIO
WITH BASE OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SWD
ACROSS OK AND TX PANHANDLE ALSO PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WITH A WEAK NLY UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER MUCH OF THE SERN STATES WHERE
A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS.

...MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY...
IN THE WAKE OF SOME EARLY SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS...MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING FRONT/WIND SHIFT
FROM SERN LOWER MI INTO CNTRL IL AND MO BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
FORCING FOR ASCENT/FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEAK...STRONG
HEATING SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE MARGINAL AREA BY
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND OR HAIL
APPEARS TO RESIDE WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY FROM IL/IN SWD
ACROSS KY/TN. A SECONDARY RELATIVE THREAT AREA APPEARS TO BE ALONG
THE GULF COAST FROM SERN LA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE DUE TO HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND NLY FLOW CONSOLIDATING STORMS INTO THAT AREA BY
AFTERNOON.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM NEAR THE TRAILING FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHERE A RIBBON OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ABOUT 1500 J/KG MUCAPE...FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO
OK. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY...POOR LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NON-SEVERE STORMS.

..JEWELL.. 07/28/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 281706
SWODY2
SPC AC 281705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY
SWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL NEWD ACROSS NRN ONTARIO
WITH BASE OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SWD
ACROSS OK AND TX PANHANDLE ALSO PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WITH A WEAK NLY UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER MUCH OF THE SERN STATES WHERE
A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS.

...MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY...
IN THE WAKE OF SOME EARLY SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS...MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING FRONT/WIND SHIFT
FROM SERN LOWER MI INTO CNTRL IL AND MO BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
FORCING FOR ASCENT/FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEAK...STRONG
HEATING SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE MARGINAL AREA BY
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND OR HAIL
APPEARS TO RESIDE WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY FROM IL/IN SWD
ACROSS KY/TN. A SECONDARY RELATIVE THREAT AREA APPEARS TO BE ALONG
THE GULF COAST FROM SERN LA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE DUE TO HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND NLY FLOW CONSOLIDATING STORMS INTO THAT AREA BY
AFTERNOON.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM NEAR THE TRAILING FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHERE A RIBBON OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ABOUT 1500 J/KG MUCAPE...FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO
OK. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY...POOR LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NON-SEVERE STORMS.

..JEWELL.. 07/28/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 281706
SWODY2
SPC AC 281705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY
SWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL NEWD ACROSS NRN ONTARIO
WITH BASE OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SWD
ACROSS OK AND TX PANHANDLE ALSO PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WITH A WEAK NLY UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER MUCH OF THE SERN STATES WHERE
A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS.

...MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY...
IN THE WAKE OF SOME EARLY SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS...MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING FRONT/WIND SHIFT
FROM SERN LOWER MI INTO CNTRL IL AND MO BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
FORCING FOR ASCENT/FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEAK...STRONG
HEATING SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE MARGINAL AREA BY
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND OR HAIL
APPEARS TO RESIDE WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY FROM IL/IN SWD
ACROSS KY/TN. A SECONDARY RELATIVE THREAT AREA APPEARS TO BE ALONG
THE GULF COAST FROM SERN LA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE DUE TO HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND NLY FLOW CONSOLIDATING STORMS INTO THAT AREA BY
AFTERNOON.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM NEAR THE TRAILING FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHERE A RIBBON OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ABOUT 1500 J/KG MUCAPE...FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO
OK. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY...POOR LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NON-SEVERE STORMS.

..JEWELL.. 07/28/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 281706
SWODY2
SPC AC 281705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY
SWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL NEWD ACROSS NRN ONTARIO
WITH BASE OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SWD
ACROSS OK AND TX PANHANDLE ALSO PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WITH A WEAK NLY UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER MUCH OF THE SERN STATES WHERE
A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS.

...MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY...
IN THE WAKE OF SOME EARLY SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS...MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING FRONT/WIND SHIFT
FROM SERN LOWER MI INTO CNTRL IL AND MO BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
FORCING FOR ASCENT/FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEAK...STRONG
HEATING SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE MARGINAL AREA BY
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND OR HAIL
APPEARS TO RESIDE WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY FROM IL/IN SWD
ACROSS KY/TN. A SECONDARY RELATIVE THREAT AREA APPEARS TO BE ALONG
THE GULF COAST FROM SERN LA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE DUE TO HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND NLY FLOW CONSOLIDATING STORMS INTO THAT AREA BY
AFTERNOON.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM NEAR THE TRAILING FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON WHERE A RIBBON OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ABOUT 1500 J/KG MUCAPE...FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO
OK. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY...POOR LAPSE RATES
ALOFT AND LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY NON-SEVERE STORMS.

..JEWELL.. 07/28/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 281633
SWODY1
SPC AC 281631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB/NERN KS EWD ACROSS
IA/NRN MO TO NWRN IL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/MN
ARROWHEAD REGION SWD INTO IL AND SWWD ACROSS KS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND VICINITY.
WITHIN THAT SWATH...THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR GREATER
CONCENTRATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA.  A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
EXISTS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

...SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A SERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
SEWD -- BRUSHING NEW ENGLAND AS IT PASSES...THE MAIN FEATURE WITHIN
THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL BE A SECOND LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
SRN SASKATCHEWAN.  THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY ENEWD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE...REACHING WRN ONTARIO LATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS...AND SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD THE KS/OK VICINITY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS KS...
A SUB-SEVERE MCS CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS ERN IA ATTM...WITH TRAILING
OUTFLOW EXTENDING WWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER INTO SERN NEB.
WHILE THIS MCS APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- POSSIBLY TURNING SEWD WITH TIME INTO NRN
IL...OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

FARTHER N ACROSS MN/WI...THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS BEEN
SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECTED BY EARLIER CONVECTION...WITH LINGERING CLOUD
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  THOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
MAY STILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL DUE TO LACK OF GREATER
BUOYANCY -- AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5%/MRGL RISK ACROSS THIS
AREA.

SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO EXIST FARTHER SWD ALONG THE
FRONT INTO ERN NEB...WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON INVOF THE INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM THE IA MCS.  WHILE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THIS REGION AS WILL STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FLOW...BACKED/ESELY FLOW NEAR/N OF THE OUTFLOW MAY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS -- WITH ATTENDANT
WIND/HAIL RISK AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE WITH TIME INTO LINES/CLUSTERS...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL REMAINING POSSIBLE AS STORMS SPREAD EWD ACROSS IA/NRN MO
THROUGH THE EVENING.

...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...
LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING CU FIELD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW ENGLAND...AS INSOLATION/BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IN CONJUNCTION
WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION.  SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE THROUGH PEAK HEATING...AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW MAY
SUPPORT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WHICH COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR
GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING OR JUST REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.  CONVECTION
WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET AS THE AIRMASS DIURNALLY
STABILIZES.

..GOSS.. 07/28/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 281633
SWODY1
SPC AC 281631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB/NERN KS EWD ACROSS
IA/NRN MO TO NWRN IL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/MN
ARROWHEAD REGION SWD INTO IL AND SWWD ACROSS KS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND VICINITY.
WITHIN THAT SWATH...THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR GREATER
CONCENTRATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA.  A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
EXISTS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

...SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A SERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
SEWD -- BRUSHING NEW ENGLAND AS IT PASSES...THE MAIN FEATURE WITHIN
THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL BE A SECOND LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
SRN SASKATCHEWAN.  THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY ENEWD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE...REACHING WRN ONTARIO LATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS...AND SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD THE KS/OK VICINITY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS KS...
A SUB-SEVERE MCS CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS ERN IA ATTM...WITH TRAILING
OUTFLOW EXTENDING WWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER INTO SERN NEB.
WHILE THIS MCS APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- POSSIBLY TURNING SEWD WITH TIME INTO NRN
IL...OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

FARTHER N ACROSS MN/WI...THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS BEEN
SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECTED BY EARLIER CONVECTION...WITH LINGERING CLOUD
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  THOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
MAY STILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL DUE TO LACK OF GREATER
BUOYANCY -- AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5%/MRGL RISK ACROSS THIS
AREA.

SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO EXIST FARTHER SWD ALONG THE
FRONT INTO ERN NEB...WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON INVOF THE INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM THE IA MCS.  WHILE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THIS REGION AS WILL STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FLOW...BACKED/ESELY FLOW NEAR/N OF THE OUTFLOW MAY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS -- WITH ATTENDANT
WIND/HAIL RISK AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE WITH TIME INTO LINES/CLUSTERS...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL REMAINING POSSIBLE AS STORMS SPREAD EWD ACROSS IA/NRN MO
THROUGH THE EVENING.

...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...
LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING CU FIELD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW ENGLAND...AS INSOLATION/BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IN CONJUNCTION
WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION.  SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE THROUGH PEAK HEATING...AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW MAY
SUPPORT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WHICH COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR
GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING OR JUST REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.  CONVECTION
WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET AS THE AIRMASS DIURNALLY
STABILIZES.

..GOSS.. 07/28/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 281633
SWODY1
SPC AC 281631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB/NERN KS EWD ACROSS
IA/NRN MO TO NWRN IL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/MN
ARROWHEAD REGION SWD INTO IL AND SWWD ACROSS KS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND VICINITY.
WITHIN THAT SWATH...THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR GREATER
CONCENTRATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA.  A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
EXISTS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

...SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A SERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
SEWD -- BRUSHING NEW ENGLAND AS IT PASSES...THE MAIN FEATURE WITHIN
THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL BE A SECOND LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
SRN SASKATCHEWAN.  THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY ENEWD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE...REACHING WRN ONTARIO LATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS...AND SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD THE KS/OK VICINITY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS KS...
A SUB-SEVERE MCS CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS ERN IA ATTM...WITH TRAILING
OUTFLOW EXTENDING WWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER INTO SERN NEB.
WHILE THIS MCS APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- POSSIBLY TURNING SEWD WITH TIME INTO NRN
IL...OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

FARTHER N ACROSS MN/WI...THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS BEEN
SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECTED BY EARLIER CONVECTION...WITH LINGERING CLOUD
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  THOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
MAY STILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL DUE TO LACK OF GREATER
BUOYANCY -- AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5%/MRGL RISK ACROSS THIS
AREA.

SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO EXIST FARTHER SWD ALONG THE
FRONT INTO ERN NEB...WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON INVOF THE INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM THE IA MCS.  WHILE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THIS REGION AS WILL STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FLOW...BACKED/ESELY FLOW NEAR/N OF THE OUTFLOW MAY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS -- WITH ATTENDANT
WIND/HAIL RISK AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE WITH TIME INTO LINES/CLUSTERS...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL REMAINING POSSIBLE AS STORMS SPREAD EWD ACROSS IA/NRN MO
THROUGH THE EVENING.

...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...
LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING CU FIELD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW ENGLAND...AS INSOLATION/BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IN CONJUNCTION
WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION.  SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE THROUGH PEAK HEATING...AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW MAY
SUPPORT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WHICH COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR
GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING OR JUST REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.  CONVECTION
WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET AS THE AIRMASS DIURNALLY
STABILIZES.

..GOSS.. 07/28/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 281633
SWODY1
SPC AC 281631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB/NERN KS EWD ACROSS
IA/NRN MO TO NWRN IL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/MN
ARROWHEAD REGION SWD INTO IL AND SWWD ACROSS KS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND VICINITY.
WITHIN THAT SWATH...THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR GREATER
CONCENTRATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA.  A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
EXISTS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

...SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM A SERN CANADA CLOSED LOW WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
SEWD -- BRUSHING NEW ENGLAND AS IT PASSES...THE MAIN FEATURE WITHIN
THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL BE A SECOND LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
SRN SASKATCHEWAN.  THIS LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY ENEWD
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE...REACHING WRN ONTARIO LATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS...AND SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD THE KS/OK VICINITY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS KS...
A SUB-SEVERE MCS CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS ERN IA ATTM...WITH TRAILING
OUTFLOW EXTENDING WWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER INTO SERN NEB.
WHILE THIS MCS APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- POSSIBLY TURNING SEWD WITH TIME INTO NRN
IL...OVERALL SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

FARTHER N ACROSS MN/WI...THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS BEEN
SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECTED BY EARLIER CONVECTION...WITH LINGERING CLOUD
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  THOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
MAY STILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MARGINAL DUE TO LACK OF GREATER
BUOYANCY -- AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5%/MRGL RISK ACROSS THIS
AREA.

SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO EXIST FARTHER SWD ALONG THE
FRONT INTO ERN NEB...WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON INVOF THE INTERSECTION OF THE FRONT AND THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM THE IA MCS.  WHILE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL N OF THIS REGION AS WILL STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FLOW...BACKED/ESELY FLOW NEAR/N OF THE OUTFLOW MAY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS -- WITH ATTENDANT
WIND/HAIL RISK AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD GROW
UPSCALE WITH TIME INTO LINES/CLUSTERS...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL REMAINING POSSIBLE AS STORMS SPREAD EWD ACROSS IA/NRN MO
THROUGH THE EVENING.

...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...
LATEST VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING CU FIELD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW ENGLAND...AS INSOLATION/BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IN CONJUNCTION
WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION.  SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE THROUGH PEAK HEATING...AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW MAY
SUPPORT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WHICH COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR
GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING OR JUST REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.  CONVECTION
WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET AS THE AIRMASS DIURNALLY
STABILIZES.

..GOSS.. 07/28/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 281255
SWODY1
SPC AC 281253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
TO KS/MO/NEB BORDER REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM LS AND NRN MN TO
SWRN KS AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS MAINLY NRN PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND VICINITY.
WITHIN THAT SWATH...THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR GREATER
CONCENTRATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA TO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.  A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONE IS FCST TO REBUILD OVER S-CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH RIDGING WWD ACROSS CA AND NEWD TO HUDSON BAY.  W OF
THAT RIDGE...CYCLONE IS EJECTING NEWD FROM NERN MT ACROSS SRN
SK...WITH TROUGH SWWD OVER NRN CA.  ASSOCIATED 500-MB LOW SHOULD
CROSS SERN SK BY AROUND 00Z THEN REACH MB/ONT BORDER NEAR END OF
PERIOD.  GIVEN POSITIVE TILT AND EXPECTED DEAMPLIFICATION OF
TRAILING TROUGH...BULK OF SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS AND DCVA SHOULD
REMAIN EITHER OVER CANADA OR BEHIND U.S. PORTION OF SFC COLD FRONT
DESCRIBED BELOW.  FARTHER E...COMPACT CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PARTS OF NRN QUE AND ADJOINING EXTREME
WRN LABRADOR -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD TOWARD ERN NB BY END OF
PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING NWLYS/NLYS
ALOFT SPREADING OVER PARTS OF MAINE OVERNIGHT.

AT SFC...CYCLONE NOW OVER SERN SK SHOULD BECOME MORE DEEPLY OCCLUDED
AND MORE VERTICALLY STACKED WITH LOW ALOFT.  ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 11Z OVER ERN DAKOTAS..CENTRAL NEB...WRN
KS...AND SERN CO.  BY 00Z THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH N-CENTRAL
MN...SERN NEB...CENTRAL KS AND NERN NM.  BY 12Z COLD FRONT SHOULD
ADVANCE TO WRN LS...CENTRAL WI...NRN MO...AND NWRN OK...DECELERATING
AND PERHAPS STALLING OVER TX PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ERN NM.  SFC
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AND WEAK COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH SERN
CANADIAN PERTURBATION ALOFT...WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS MAINE TODAY.

...MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION TO CENTRAL PLAINS...
SPECIFICS OF CONVECTIVE GENESIS AND EVOLUTION OVER THIS REGION TODAY
WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE DETAILS.  HOWEVER...GENERAL
SCENARIO REMAINS VALID OF TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AND OFFERING
SVR WIND/HAIL RISK SEVERAL HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...AND
NEAR AND S OF BOUNDARIES RELATED TO MORNING MCS ACTIVITY.

SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED OVER MOST AREAS BEHIND EXISTING
MCS...WHERE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO RENDER OUTFLOW POOL SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED SVR THREAT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY BETWEEN DENSE MCS
CLOUD/PRECIP PLUME AND SFC COLD FRONT.  THAT SAME THICK CLOUD/PRECIP
PLUME ALSO SHOULD PERSIST FOR MANY HOURS AND RESTRICT DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS MOST OF NRN MN AND NWRN WI.
WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT N OR NW
OF MCS...ESPECIALLY INVOF CANADIAN BORDER...UNCONDITIONAL SVR
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN STUNTED ENOUGH TO DOWNGRADE FROM
15%/SLGT LEVEL.

FARTHER S...REMAINDER OF REGION ALONG AND SE OF MCS PRECIP PLUME AND
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN
CHARACTERIZED BY RICH...EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY BOOSTED BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F BY MID AFTN.
MLCAPE WILL INCREASE SWD AWAY FROM THICKER CLOUD COVER...WITH VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 2000-3500 J/KG.  HOWEVER...DECREASE WITH SWD
EXTENT IS EXPECTED FOR DEEP SHEAR...DCVA AND HEIGHT FALLS...GIVEN
FCST PATH OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE.  AS SUCH...MOSTLY
MULTICELLULAR MODES ARE LIKELY...THOUGH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...LIKELY
OF HEAVY-PRECIP CHARACTER...ALSO ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MRGL/35-40 KT
EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES.

WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM MO RIVER VALLEY...AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY NARROWER ZONE OF RELATIVELY HIGH DEW
POINTS...STRONGER SFC HEATING...WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WINDS...AND SMALLER
DEEP-SHEAR VALUES.  THAT HEATING...ALONG WITH LIFT INVOF
FRONT...SHOULD SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTN WITH
WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER SUPPORTING STG/ISOLATED SVR GUSTS...AND
MAINTENANCE OF ISOLATED SVR HAIL TO SFC.  THREAT SHOULD BE STRONGLY
TIED TO DIURNAL PROCESSES AND SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER DARK.

...NEW ENGLAND...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM TODAY INVOF WIND
SHIFT/FRONT AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION...OFFERING SPORADIC
HAIL NEAR SVR LIMITS AND STG GUSTS.  UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR BEHIND BAND
OF ELEVATED TSTMS THAT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE MAINE COAST...REINFORCING
ALREADY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  DNVA AND WEAK HEIGHT RISES ALSO
ARE FCST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY LOBE PASSES
OFFSHORE.  STILL...IR AND EARLY VIS IMAGERY INDICATE ENOUGH CLEARING
THAT SUSTAINED INSOLATION MAY RENDER SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW
PARCELS IN PREFRONTAL SECTOR THROUGH THIS AFTN...THOUGH BULK OF
HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND
BOUNDARY.

..EDWARDS/COOK.. 07/28/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 281255
SWODY1
SPC AC 281253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
TO KS/MO/NEB BORDER REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM LS AND NRN MN TO
SWRN KS AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS MAINLY NRN PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND VICINITY.
WITHIN THAT SWATH...THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR GREATER
CONCENTRATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA TO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.  A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONE IS FCST TO REBUILD OVER S-CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH RIDGING WWD ACROSS CA AND NEWD TO HUDSON BAY.  W OF
THAT RIDGE...CYCLONE IS EJECTING NEWD FROM NERN MT ACROSS SRN
SK...WITH TROUGH SWWD OVER NRN CA.  ASSOCIATED 500-MB LOW SHOULD
CROSS SERN SK BY AROUND 00Z THEN REACH MB/ONT BORDER NEAR END OF
PERIOD.  GIVEN POSITIVE TILT AND EXPECTED DEAMPLIFICATION OF
TRAILING TROUGH...BULK OF SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS AND DCVA SHOULD
REMAIN EITHER OVER CANADA OR BEHIND U.S. PORTION OF SFC COLD FRONT
DESCRIBED BELOW.  FARTHER E...COMPACT CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PARTS OF NRN QUE AND ADJOINING EXTREME
WRN LABRADOR -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD TOWARD ERN NB BY END OF
PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING NWLYS/NLYS
ALOFT SPREADING OVER PARTS OF MAINE OVERNIGHT.

AT SFC...CYCLONE NOW OVER SERN SK SHOULD BECOME MORE DEEPLY OCCLUDED
AND MORE VERTICALLY STACKED WITH LOW ALOFT.  ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 11Z OVER ERN DAKOTAS..CENTRAL NEB...WRN
KS...AND SERN CO.  BY 00Z THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH N-CENTRAL
MN...SERN NEB...CENTRAL KS AND NERN NM.  BY 12Z COLD FRONT SHOULD
ADVANCE TO WRN LS...CENTRAL WI...NRN MO...AND NWRN OK...DECELERATING
AND PERHAPS STALLING OVER TX PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ERN NM.  SFC
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AND WEAK COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH SERN
CANADIAN PERTURBATION ALOFT...WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS MAINE TODAY.

...MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION TO CENTRAL PLAINS...
SPECIFICS OF CONVECTIVE GENESIS AND EVOLUTION OVER THIS REGION TODAY
WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE DETAILS.  HOWEVER...GENERAL
SCENARIO REMAINS VALID OF TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AND OFFERING
SVR WIND/HAIL RISK SEVERAL HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...AND
NEAR AND S OF BOUNDARIES RELATED TO MORNING MCS ACTIVITY.

SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED OVER MOST AREAS BEHIND EXISTING
MCS...WHERE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO RENDER OUTFLOW POOL SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED SVR THREAT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY BETWEEN DENSE MCS
CLOUD/PRECIP PLUME AND SFC COLD FRONT.  THAT SAME THICK CLOUD/PRECIP
PLUME ALSO SHOULD PERSIST FOR MANY HOURS AND RESTRICT DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS MOST OF NRN MN AND NWRN WI.
WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT N OR NW
OF MCS...ESPECIALLY INVOF CANADIAN BORDER...UNCONDITIONAL SVR
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN STUNTED ENOUGH TO DOWNGRADE FROM
15%/SLGT LEVEL.

FARTHER S...REMAINDER OF REGION ALONG AND SE OF MCS PRECIP PLUME AND
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN
CHARACTERIZED BY RICH...EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY BOOSTED BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F BY MID AFTN.
MLCAPE WILL INCREASE SWD AWAY FROM THICKER CLOUD COVER...WITH VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 2000-3500 J/KG.  HOWEVER...DECREASE WITH SWD
EXTENT IS EXPECTED FOR DEEP SHEAR...DCVA AND HEIGHT FALLS...GIVEN
FCST PATH OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE.  AS SUCH...MOSTLY
MULTICELLULAR MODES ARE LIKELY...THOUGH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...LIKELY
OF HEAVY-PRECIP CHARACTER...ALSO ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MRGL/35-40 KT
EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES.

WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM MO RIVER VALLEY...AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY NARROWER ZONE OF RELATIVELY HIGH DEW
POINTS...STRONGER SFC HEATING...WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WINDS...AND SMALLER
DEEP-SHEAR VALUES.  THAT HEATING...ALONG WITH LIFT INVOF
FRONT...SHOULD SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTN WITH
WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER SUPPORTING STG/ISOLATED SVR GUSTS...AND
MAINTENANCE OF ISOLATED SVR HAIL TO SFC.  THREAT SHOULD BE STRONGLY
TIED TO DIURNAL PROCESSES AND SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER DARK.

...NEW ENGLAND...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM TODAY INVOF WIND
SHIFT/FRONT AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION...OFFERING SPORADIC
HAIL NEAR SVR LIMITS AND STG GUSTS.  UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR BEHIND BAND
OF ELEVATED TSTMS THAT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE MAINE COAST...REINFORCING
ALREADY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  DNVA AND WEAK HEIGHT RISES ALSO
ARE FCST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY LOBE PASSES
OFFSHORE.  STILL...IR AND EARLY VIS IMAGERY INDICATE ENOUGH CLEARING
THAT SUSTAINED INSOLATION MAY RENDER SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW
PARCELS IN PREFRONTAL SECTOR THROUGH THIS AFTN...THOUGH BULK OF
HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND
BOUNDARY.

..EDWARDS/COOK.. 07/28/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 281255
SWODY1
SPC AC 281253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
TO KS/MO/NEB BORDER REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM LS AND NRN MN TO
SWRN KS AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS MAINLY NRN PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND VICINITY.
WITHIN THAT SWATH...THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR GREATER
CONCENTRATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA TO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.  A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONE IS FCST TO REBUILD OVER S-CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH RIDGING WWD ACROSS CA AND NEWD TO HUDSON BAY.  W OF
THAT RIDGE...CYCLONE IS EJECTING NEWD FROM NERN MT ACROSS SRN
SK...WITH TROUGH SWWD OVER NRN CA.  ASSOCIATED 500-MB LOW SHOULD
CROSS SERN SK BY AROUND 00Z THEN REACH MB/ONT BORDER NEAR END OF
PERIOD.  GIVEN POSITIVE TILT AND EXPECTED DEAMPLIFICATION OF
TRAILING TROUGH...BULK OF SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS AND DCVA SHOULD
REMAIN EITHER OVER CANADA OR BEHIND U.S. PORTION OF SFC COLD FRONT
DESCRIBED BELOW.  FARTHER E...COMPACT CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PARTS OF NRN QUE AND ADJOINING EXTREME
WRN LABRADOR -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD TOWARD ERN NB BY END OF
PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING NWLYS/NLYS
ALOFT SPREADING OVER PARTS OF MAINE OVERNIGHT.

AT SFC...CYCLONE NOW OVER SERN SK SHOULD BECOME MORE DEEPLY OCCLUDED
AND MORE VERTICALLY STACKED WITH LOW ALOFT.  ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 11Z OVER ERN DAKOTAS..CENTRAL NEB...WRN
KS...AND SERN CO.  BY 00Z THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH N-CENTRAL
MN...SERN NEB...CENTRAL KS AND NERN NM.  BY 12Z COLD FRONT SHOULD
ADVANCE TO WRN LS...CENTRAL WI...NRN MO...AND NWRN OK...DECELERATING
AND PERHAPS STALLING OVER TX PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ERN NM.  SFC
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AND WEAK COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH SERN
CANADIAN PERTURBATION ALOFT...WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS MAINE TODAY.

...MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION TO CENTRAL PLAINS...
SPECIFICS OF CONVECTIVE GENESIS AND EVOLUTION OVER THIS REGION TODAY
WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE DETAILS.  HOWEVER...GENERAL
SCENARIO REMAINS VALID OF TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AND OFFERING
SVR WIND/HAIL RISK SEVERAL HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...AND
NEAR AND S OF BOUNDARIES RELATED TO MORNING MCS ACTIVITY.

SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED OVER MOST AREAS BEHIND EXISTING
MCS...WHERE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO RENDER OUTFLOW POOL SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED SVR THREAT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY BETWEEN DENSE MCS
CLOUD/PRECIP PLUME AND SFC COLD FRONT.  THAT SAME THICK CLOUD/PRECIP
PLUME ALSO SHOULD PERSIST FOR MANY HOURS AND RESTRICT DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS MOST OF NRN MN AND NWRN WI.
WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT N OR NW
OF MCS...ESPECIALLY INVOF CANADIAN BORDER...UNCONDITIONAL SVR
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN STUNTED ENOUGH TO DOWNGRADE FROM
15%/SLGT LEVEL.

FARTHER S...REMAINDER OF REGION ALONG AND SE OF MCS PRECIP PLUME AND
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN
CHARACTERIZED BY RICH...EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY BOOSTED BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F BY MID AFTN.
MLCAPE WILL INCREASE SWD AWAY FROM THICKER CLOUD COVER...WITH VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 2000-3500 J/KG.  HOWEVER...DECREASE WITH SWD
EXTENT IS EXPECTED FOR DEEP SHEAR...DCVA AND HEIGHT FALLS...GIVEN
FCST PATH OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE.  AS SUCH...MOSTLY
MULTICELLULAR MODES ARE LIKELY...THOUGH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...LIKELY
OF HEAVY-PRECIP CHARACTER...ALSO ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MRGL/35-40 KT
EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES.

WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM MO RIVER VALLEY...AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY NARROWER ZONE OF RELATIVELY HIGH DEW
POINTS...STRONGER SFC HEATING...WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WINDS...AND SMALLER
DEEP-SHEAR VALUES.  THAT HEATING...ALONG WITH LIFT INVOF
FRONT...SHOULD SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTN WITH
WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER SUPPORTING STG/ISOLATED SVR GUSTS...AND
MAINTENANCE OF ISOLATED SVR HAIL TO SFC.  THREAT SHOULD BE STRONGLY
TIED TO DIURNAL PROCESSES AND SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER DARK.

...NEW ENGLAND...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM TODAY INVOF WIND
SHIFT/FRONT AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION...OFFERING SPORADIC
HAIL NEAR SVR LIMITS AND STG GUSTS.  UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR BEHIND BAND
OF ELEVATED TSTMS THAT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE MAINE COAST...REINFORCING
ALREADY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  DNVA AND WEAK HEIGHT RISES ALSO
ARE FCST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY LOBE PASSES
OFFSHORE.  STILL...IR AND EARLY VIS IMAGERY INDICATE ENOUGH CLEARING
THAT SUSTAINED INSOLATION MAY RENDER SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW
PARCELS IN PREFRONTAL SECTOR THROUGH THIS AFTN...THOUGH BULK OF
HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND
BOUNDARY.

..EDWARDS/COOK.. 07/28/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 281255
SWODY1
SPC AC 281253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY
TO KS/MO/NEB BORDER REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM LS AND NRN MN TO
SWRN KS AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS MAINLY NRN PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND VICINITY.
WITHIN THAT SWATH...THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR GREATER
CONCENTRATIONS OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA TO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.  A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXISTS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONE IS FCST TO REBUILD OVER S-CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH RIDGING WWD ACROSS CA AND NEWD TO HUDSON BAY.  W OF
THAT RIDGE...CYCLONE IS EJECTING NEWD FROM NERN MT ACROSS SRN
SK...WITH TROUGH SWWD OVER NRN CA.  ASSOCIATED 500-MB LOW SHOULD
CROSS SERN SK BY AROUND 00Z THEN REACH MB/ONT BORDER NEAR END OF
PERIOD.  GIVEN POSITIVE TILT AND EXPECTED DEAMPLIFICATION OF
TRAILING TROUGH...BULK OF SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS AND DCVA SHOULD
REMAIN EITHER OVER CANADA OR BEHIND U.S. PORTION OF SFC COLD FRONT
DESCRIBED BELOW.  FARTHER E...COMPACT CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PARTS OF NRN QUE AND ADJOINING EXTREME
WRN LABRADOR -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD TOWARD ERN NB BY END OF
PERIOD...WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING NWLYS/NLYS
ALOFT SPREADING OVER PARTS OF MAINE OVERNIGHT.

AT SFC...CYCLONE NOW OVER SERN SK SHOULD BECOME MORE DEEPLY OCCLUDED
AND MORE VERTICALLY STACKED WITH LOW ALOFT.  ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 11Z OVER ERN DAKOTAS..CENTRAL NEB...WRN
KS...AND SERN CO.  BY 00Z THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH N-CENTRAL
MN...SERN NEB...CENTRAL KS AND NERN NM.  BY 12Z COLD FRONT SHOULD
ADVANCE TO WRN LS...CENTRAL WI...NRN MO...AND NWRN OK...DECELERATING
AND PERHAPS STALLING OVER TX PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ERN NM.  SFC
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AND WEAK COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH SERN
CANADIAN PERTURBATION ALOFT...WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS MAINE TODAY.

...MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION TO CENTRAL PLAINS...
SPECIFICS OF CONVECTIVE GENESIS AND EVOLUTION OVER THIS REGION TODAY
WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE DETAILS.  HOWEVER...GENERAL
SCENARIO REMAINS VALID OF TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AND OFFERING
SVR WIND/HAIL RISK SEVERAL HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...AND
NEAR AND S OF BOUNDARIES RELATED TO MORNING MCS ACTIVITY.

SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED OVER MOST AREAS BEHIND EXISTING
MCS...WHERE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO RENDER OUTFLOW POOL SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED SVR THREAT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY BETWEEN DENSE MCS
CLOUD/PRECIP PLUME AND SFC COLD FRONT.  THAT SAME THICK CLOUD/PRECIP
PLUME ALSO SHOULD PERSIST FOR MANY HOURS AND RESTRICT DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS MOST OF NRN MN AND NWRN WI.
WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT N OR NW
OF MCS...ESPECIALLY INVOF CANADIAN BORDER...UNCONDITIONAL SVR
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN STUNTED ENOUGH TO DOWNGRADE FROM
15%/SLGT LEVEL.

FARTHER S...REMAINDER OF REGION ALONG AND SE OF MCS PRECIP PLUME AND
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN
CHARACTERIZED BY RICH...EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY BOOSTED BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F BY MID AFTN.
MLCAPE WILL INCREASE SWD AWAY FROM THICKER CLOUD COVER...WITH VALUES
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 2000-3500 J/KG.  HOWEVER...DECREASE WITH SWD
EXTENT IS EXPECTED FOR DEEP SHEAR...DCVA AND HEIGHT FALLS...GIVEN
FCST PATH OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE.  AS SUCH...MOSTLY
MULTICELLULAR MODES ARE LIKELY...THOUGH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...LIKELY
OF HEAVY-PRECIP CHARACTER...ALSO ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MRGL/35-40 KT
EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES.

WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM MO RIVER VALLEY...AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY NARROWER ZONE OF RELATIVELY HIGH DEW
POINTS...STRONGER SFC HEATING...WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WINDS...AND SMALLER
DEEP-SHEAR VALUES.  THAT HEATING...ALONG WITH LIFT INVOF
FRONT...SHOULD SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTN WITH
WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER SUPPORTING STG/ISOLATED SVR GUSTS...AND
MAINTENANCE OF ISOLATED SVR HAIL TO SFC.  THREAT SHOULD BE STRONGLY
TIED TO DIURNAL PROCESSES AND SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER DARK.

...NEW ENGLAND...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM TODAY INVOF WIND
SHIFT/FRONT AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION...OFFERING SPORADIC
HAIL NEAR SVR LIMITS AND STG GUSTS.  UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR BEHIND BAND
OF ELEVATED TSTMS THAT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE MAINE COAST...REINFORCING
ALREADY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  DNVA AND WEAK HEIGHT RISES ALSO
ARE FCST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY LOBE PASSES
OFFSHORE.  STILL...IR AND EARLY VIS IMAGERY INDICATE ENOUGH CLEARING
THAT SUSTAINED INSOLATION MAY RENDER SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW
PARCELS IN PREFRONTAL SECTOR THROUGH THIS AFTN...THOUGH BULK OF
HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND
BOUNDARY.

..EDWARDS/COOK.. 07/28/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 280838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280837
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-281100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1562
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...FAR SE ND...WRN MN...FAR NW IA...FAR NE
NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 280837Z - 281100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN MN. STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WW ISSUANCE REMAINS UNLIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE-SCALE BOWING LINE
SEGMENT FROM FAR SE ND SWD ACROSS FAR ERN SD AND INTO NE NEB. THIS
LINE IS LOCATED ALONG A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE
MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE FSD
WSR-88D VWP SHOWS STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SFC WITH 50-55 KT OF SW
FLOW NEAR 1 KM AGL. THIS MAY HELP THE BETTER-ORGANIZED CELLS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINEAR MCS TO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO THE
WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DOWNTREND OF INTENSITY WITH CELLS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMING MORE MARGINAL
WITH TIME.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...

LAT...LON   46399476 46679549 46689615 46459658 46069655 44969646
            43869680 43369725 42949786 42559781 42349725 42469645
            42879561 43539498 44329459 45489435 46399476





000
ACUS11 KWNS 280838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280837
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-281100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1562
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...FAR SE ND...WRN MN...FAR NW IA...FAR NE
NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 280837Z - 281100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN MN. STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WW ISSUANCE REMAINS UNLIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE-SCALE BOWING LINE
SEGMENT FROM FAR SE ND SWD ACROSS FAR ERN SD AND INTO NE NEB. THIS
LINE IS LOCATED ALONG A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE
MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE FSD
WSR-88D VWP SHOWS STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SFC WITH 50-55 KT OF SW
FLOW NEAR 1 KM AGL. THIS MAY HELP THE BETTER-ORGANIZED CELLS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINEAR MCS TO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO THE
WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DOWNTREND OF INTENSITY WITH CELLS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMING MORE MARGINAL
WITH TIME.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...

LAT...LON   46399476 46679549 46689615 46459658 46069655 44969646
            43869680 43369725 42949786 42559781 42349725 42469645
            42879561 43539498 44329459 45489435 46399476






000
ACUS11 KWNS 280838
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280837
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-281100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1562
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...FAR SE ND...WRN MN...FAR NW IA...FAR NE
NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 280837Z - 281100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN MN. STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WW ISSUANCE REMAINS UNLIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE-SCALE BOWING LINE
SEGMENT FROM FAR SE ND SWD ACROSS FAR ERN SD AND INTO NE NEB. THIS
LINE IS LOCATED ALONG A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE
MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE FSD
WSR-88D VWP SHOWS STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SFC WITH 50-55 KT OF SW
FLOW NEAR 1 KM AGL. THIS MAY HELP THE BETTER-ORGANIZED CELLS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINEAR MCS TO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO THE
WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DOWNTREND OF INTENSITY WITH CELLS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMING MORE MARGINAL
WITH TIME.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...

LAT...LON   46399476 46679549 46689615 46459658 46069655 44969646
            43869680 43369725 42949786 42559781 42349725 42469645
            42879561 43539498 44329459 45489435 46399476





000
ACUS03 KWNS 280720
SWODY3
SPC AC 280719

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES/APPALACHIANS TO NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A BROAD
PART OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SEMI-AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE
CONUS ON THURSDAY. WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES...WITH A
COLD FRONT ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

...NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY...AT LEAST WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED AS A
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY PRECEDE THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF
STRONGER HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY SHOULD ALLOW
SOME STRONGER/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN AREAS SPANNING EASTERN PA/NJ INTO EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PROVIDED SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...MORE THAN ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KT/ WILL SUPPORT
SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY A DAMAGING-WIND RISK.

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHEAST STATES...
WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GENERALLY
BE WEAK...A FEW CONVECTIVELY RELATED DISTURBANCES/MODESTLY ENHANCED
NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS MAY OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. THESE FACTORS MAY FURTHER
CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNBURST/LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 07/28/2015





000
ACUS03 KWNS 280720
SWODY3
SPC AC 280719

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES/APPALACHIANS TO NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A BROAD
PART OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SEMI-AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE
CONUS ON THURSDAY. WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES...WITH A
COLD FRONT ADVANCING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

...NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY...AT LEAST WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED AS A
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY PRECEDE THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF
STRONGER HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY SHOULD ALLOW
SOME STRONGER/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN AREAS SPANNING EASTERN PA/NJ INTO EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PROVIDED SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS...MORE THAN ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KT/ WILL SUPPORT
SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY A DAMAGING-WIND RISK.

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHEAST STATES...
WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GENERALLY
BE WEAK...A FEW CONVECTIVELY RELATED DISTURBANCES/MODESTLY ENHANCED
NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS MAY OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST STATES ON THURSDAY. THESE FACTORS MAY FURTHER
CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNBURST/LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 07/28/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 280657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280657
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-280900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1561
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...WRN MN...SE ND...FAR NW IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 458...

VALID 280657Z - 280900Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 458
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS SE ND...ERN SD AND MAY AFFECT
WRN MN LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED AS
THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES TOWARD THE EDGE OF WW 458.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ACROSS SERN ND SWD INTO ERN SD ALONG WHICH
MULTIPLE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE ONGOING. THE LINE IS LOCATED ALONG
AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED FROM 1500
TO 2000 J/KG AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. THE
LINE OF STORMS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BY A STRENGTHENING 40 TO 55 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS BEING SAMPLED BY THE FSD WSR-88D
VWP WHICH SHOWS 50 KT AT 1 KM AGL WITH 35-40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR.
THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY BE
ACROSS SERN SD OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS AS THE SRN PART OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE INTERACTS WITH THE NOSE OF THE CNTRL PLAINS
LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS IS CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST PART OF THE LINE WITH
A 54 KT WIND GUST OBSERVED AT HURON. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT MAY
BECOME MORE ISOLATED ONCE IT GETS TOWARD THE MN STATE LINE WHERE
INSTABILITY IS MUCH WEAKER. FOR THIS REASON...WW ISSUANCE DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY TO THE EAST OF WW 458 BUT STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...

LAT...LON   45049508 46679533 47449620 47549703 47499799 47219868
            46689887 45899853 44239859 43539893 43239891 43009873
            42879763 43009623 43809528 45049508





000
ACUS02 KWNS 280601
SWODY2
SPC AC 280600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/TN VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL BE LARGELY RELEGATED TO THE
FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS/GREAT LAKES INTO CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A PROMINENT UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE ADJACENT GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION/MIDWEST/TN VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY...
THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GENERALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
AWAY FROM THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH NEAR-FRONTAL MASS
CONVERGENCE TENDING TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. EVEN SO...WEAK TO
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO SOME
STRONG/SEVERE RISK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EARLY-DAY
CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE CERTAIN DESTABILIZATION/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. SOMEWHAT STRONGER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY...WITH AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED/DIURNALLY INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WHERE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...SOME OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAY BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED
WIND DAMAGE.

...TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES...
MODESTLY ENHANCED NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION IN BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND UPPER
LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIURNALLY INTENSIFY/SPREAD GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY/TN
VALLEY...IN ADDITION TO OTHER SOUTHEAST STATES SUCH AS
MS/AL/GA/NORTH FL. DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
A FEW STRONGER PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ROCKIES/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND PERHAPS
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...REGIMES CHARACTERIZED BY VERY WEAK FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR
CURRENTLY PRECLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE VERY MARGINAL/LOCALIZED.

..GUYER.. 07/28/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 280538
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280538
NEZ000-280815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1560
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 280538Z - 280815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE
MAY BE NEEDED IF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY CAN GROW UPSCALE OR INCREASE
IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1001 MB LOW JUST TO THE
NORTH OF NORTH PLATTE NEB WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN
NEB. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS NWD ACROSS ERN AND NRN
NEB WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. A POCKET OF MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN NEB WHERE
MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED FROM 2000 TO 3500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE NORTH
PLATTE WSR-88D VWP SHOWS ABOUT 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION WITH SOME VEERING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE INSTABILITY
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO
8.0 C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WIND
DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION IN NCNTRL NEB MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BUT THE LOW-LEVEL
JET SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EWD. A CONTINUED
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41229942 41070115 41250180 41540198 41890191 42430132
            42860030 42789872 41759850 41229942






000
ACUS11 KWNS 280538
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280538
NEZ000-280815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1560
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 280538Z - 280815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE
MAY BE NEEDED IF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY CAN GROW UPSCALE OR INCREASE
IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1001 MB LOW JUST TO THE
NORTH OF NORTH PLATTE NEB WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN
NEB. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS NWD ACROSS ERN AND NRN
NEB WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. A POCKET OF MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN NEB WHERE
MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED FROM 2000 TO 3500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE NORTH
PLATTE WSR-88D VWP SHOWS ABOUT 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION WITH SOME VEERING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE INSTABILITY
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO
8.0 C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WIND
DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION IN NCNTRL NEB MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BUT THE LOW-LEVEL
JET SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EWD. A CONTINUED
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41229942 41070115 41250180 41540198 41890191 42430132
            42860030 42789872 41759850 41229942





000
ACUS11 KWNS 280538
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280538
NEZ000-280815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1560
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 280538Z - 280815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE
MAY BE NEEDED IF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY CAN GROW UPSCALE OR INCREASE
IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1001 MB LOW JUST TO THE
NORTH OF NORTH PLATTE NEB WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN
NEB. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS NWD ACROSS ERN AND NRN
NEB WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. A POCKET OF MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN NEB WHERE
MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED FROM 2000 TO 3500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE NORTH
PLATTE WSR-88D VWP SHOWS ABOUT 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION WITH SOME VEERING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE INSTABILITY
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO
8.0 C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WIND
DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION IN NCNTRL NEB MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BUT THE LOW-LEVEL
JET SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EWD. A CONTINUED
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41229942 41070115 41250180 41540198 41890191 42430132
            42860030 42789872 41759850 41229942





000
ACUS11 KWNS 280538
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280538
NEZ000-280815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1560
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 280538Z - 280815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE
MAY BE NEEDED IF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY CAN GROW UPSCALE OR INCREASE
IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1001 MB LOW JUST TO THE
NORTH OF NORTH PLATTE NEB WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN
NEB. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS NWD ACROSS ERN AND NRN
NEB WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. A POCKET OF MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN NEB WHERE
MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED FROM 2000 TO 3500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE NORTH
PLATTE WSR-88D VWP SHOWS ABOUT 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR FOR SFC-BASED
CONVECTION WITH SOME VEERING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE INSTABILITY
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO
8.0 C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WIND
DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION IN NCNTRL NEB MAY
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BUT THE LOW-LEVEL
JET SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EWD. A CONTINUED
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   41229942 41070115 41250180 41540198 41890191 42430132
            42860030 42789872 41759850 41229942






000
ACUS01 KWNS 280520
SWODY1
SPC AC 280518

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN KS TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED OVER NEW ENGLAND.

...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...

STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ENEWD ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH CENTER OF 12HR FALLS...120-180M...EXPECTED
TO TRANSLATE INTO NWRN ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY WITH THE PRIMARY ZONE OF ASCENT EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE SRN PROVINCES OF CANADA.  WHILE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO SCT CONVECTION EARLY...THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR ROBUST TSTM
ACTIVITY IS WITH LATER DEVELOPMENT AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS AND
BUOYANCY INCREASES.

LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EARLY-DAY CINH WILL
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT MINIMAL CAPPING BY 19Z OVER WRN/NRN MN...AND BY 21Z ALONG
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO SERN NEBRASKA.  AS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES ALONG THIS CORRIDOR IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT CONVECTION
EVOLVING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FOR DEEP
ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS INITIAL ACTIVITY
COULD BE SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION.  A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS KS WHERE
STRONG HEATING AND WEAKER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
HAIL WITH CONVECTION.

...NEW ENGLAND...

WEAK HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY1
PERIOD AS PRIMARY TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
RESULTANT NWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WITHIN WEAKLY FORCED
ENVIRONMENT.  LATEST THINKING IS SFC HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL
IN ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..DARROW/COHEN.. 07/28/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 280520
SWODY1
SPC AC 280518

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN KS TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED OVER NEW ENGLAND.

...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...

STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ENEWD ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH CENTER OF 12HR FALLS...120-180M...EXPECTED
TO TRANSLATE INTO NWRN ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY WITH THE PRIMARY ZONE OF ASCENT EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE SRN PROVINCES OF CANADA.  WHILE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO SCT CONVECTION EARLY...THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR ROBUST TSTM
ACTIVITY IS WITH LATER DEVELOPMENT AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS AND
BUOYANCY INCREASES.

LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EARLY-DAY CINH WILL
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EXHIBIT MINIMAL CAPPING BY 19Z OVER WRN/NRN MN...AND BY 21Z ALONG
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO SERN NEBRASKA.  AS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES ALONG THIS CORRIDOR IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT CONVECTION
EVOLVING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FOR DEEP
ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS INITIAL ACTIVITY
COULD BE SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH FRONTAL CONVECTION.  A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS KS WHERE
STRONG HEATING AND WEAKER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
HAIL WITH CONVECTION.

...NEW ENGLAND...

WEAK HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY1
PERIOD AS PRIMARY TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
RESULTANT NWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WITHIN WEAKLY FORCED
ENVIRONMENT.  LATEST THINKING IS SFC HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL
IN ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..DARROW/COHEN.. 07/28/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 280242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280241
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-280515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1559
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0941 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 280241Z - 280515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.

DISCUSSION...AN MCS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING MEASURED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS SD AND SRN ND...LIKELY
ADVANCING E OF UPSTREAM WW 457 IN THE 04-05Z TIME FRAME. THE 00Z ABR
RAOB HIGHLIGHTS AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AIDED BY A MOIST PBL
BENEATH MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH LARGE DCAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG...ORGANIZED/PROGRESSIVE COLD POOLS...SUBSTANTIAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT/UPPER DIFFLUENCE IMPLIED BY WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND UPPER-AIR
ANALYSES...FORWARD-PROPAGATION OF ONGOING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS WILL SPREAD THE RISK FOR SVR WIND GUSTS E OF WW 457 WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KT...AND
A STRENGTHENING LLJ ENHANCING MESO-GAMMA-SCALE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...SOME RISK FOR SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. A NEW SVR TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...

LAT...LON   43019787 42939838 42889889 42919915 43259933 44769929
            46229945 46689839 46459705 45239660 43399683 43019787






000
ACUS11 KWNS 280242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280241
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-280515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1559
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0941 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 280241Z - 280515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.

DISCUSSION...AN MCS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING MEASURED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS SD AND SRN ND...LIKELY
ADVANCING E OF UPSTREAM WW 457 IN THE 04-05Z TIME FRAME. THE 00Z ABR
RAOB HIGHLIGHTS AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AIDED BY A MOIST PBL
BENEATH MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH LARGE DCAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG...ORGANIZED/PROGRESSIVE COLD POOLS...SUBSTANTIAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT/UPPER DIFFLUENCE IMPLIED BY WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND UPPER-AIR
ANALYSES...FORWARD-PROPAGATION OF ONGOING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS WILL SPREAD THE RISK FOR SVR WIND GUSTS E OF WW 457 WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KT...AND
A STRENGTHENING LLJ ENHANCING MESO-GAMMA-SCALE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...SOME RISK FOR SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. A NEW SVR TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...

LAT...LON   43019787 42939838 42889889 42919915 43259933 44769929
            46229945 46689839 46459705 45239660 43399683 43019787





000
ACUS11 KWNS 280242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280241
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-280515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1559
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0941 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 280241Z - 280515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.

DISCUSSION...AN MCS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING MEASURED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS SD AND SRN ND...LIKELY
ADVANCING E OF UPSTREAM WW 457 IN THE 04-05Z TIME FRAME. THE 00Z ABR
RAOB HIGHLIGHTS AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AIDED BY A MOIST PBL
BENEATH MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH LARGE DCAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG...ORGANIZED/PROGRESSIVE COLD POOLS...SUBSTANTIAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT/UPPER DIFFLUENCE IMPLIED BY WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND UPPER-AIR
ANALYSES...FORWARD-PROPAGATION OF ONGOING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS WILL SPREAD THE RISK FOR SVR WIND GUSTS E OF WW 457 WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KT...AND
A STRENGTHENING LLJ ENHANCING MESO-GAMMA-SCALE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...SOME RISK FOR SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. A NEW SVR TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...

LAT...LON   43019787 42939838 42889889 42919915 43259933 44769929
            46229945 46689839 46459705 45239660 43399683 43019787






000
ACUS11 KWNS 280242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280241
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-280515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1559
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0941 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 280241Z - 280515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.

DISCUSSION...AN MCS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING MEASURED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS SD AND SRN ND...LIKELY
ADVANCING E OF UPSTREAM WW 457 IN THE 04-05Z TIME FRAME. THE 00Z ABR
RAOB HIGHLIGHTS AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AIDED BY A MOIST PBL
BENEATH MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH LARGE DCAPE AROUND 1500
J/KG...ORGANIZED/PROGRESSIVE COLD POOLS...SUBSTANTIAL FORCING FOR
ASCENT/UPPER DIFFLUENCE IMPLIED BY WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND UPPER-AIR
ANALYSES...FORWARD-PROPAGATION OF ONGOING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS WILL SPREAD THE RISK FOR SVR WIND GUSTS E OF WW 457 WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KT...AND
A STRENGTHENING LLJ ENHANCING MESO-GAMMA-SCALE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...SOME RISK FOR SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. A NEW SVR TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...

LAT...LON   43019787 42939838 42889889 42919915 43259933 44769929
            46229945 46689839 46459705 45239660 43399683 43019787





000
ACUS11 KWNS 280220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280219
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-280415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1558
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456...457...

VALID 280219Z - 280415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
456...457...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SVR RISK CONTINUES IN WWS 456 AND 457.

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING MEASURED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...CONTINUE FROM ERN MT TO THE THE WRN DAKOTAS. SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FRONTOGENETIC BOUNDARY OVERTAKING THE WRN EXTENT OF
MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY
IS ANALYZED AS A N/S-ORIENTED COLD FRONT FROM THE ERN ONE-QUARTER OF
MT INTO CNTRL WY...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG PRESSURE RISE-FALL
COUPLET FROM W TO E ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MT/NRN WY. THIS HIGHLIGHTS
THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
STRENGTHENING ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT ENHANCING BACKGROUND FLOW
FOR SVR-WIND POTENTIAL WITH CONVECTION...AMIDST 30-45 KT OF DEEP
SHEAR ENCOURAGING ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED TSTMS.

THE BIS AND ABR 00Z RAOBS SAMPLE MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY AND
LIMITED CAPPING...SUPPORTING CONTINUED EWD/NEWD SPREAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH LARGE DCAPE -- OVER 1000 J/KG -- ENHANCING
DOWNBURSTS AND THEIR PROPENSITY TO MANIFEST STRENGTHENING
LARGE-SCALE WIND FIELDS AS SVR WIND GUSTS AT THE SFC. RECENT
MEASURED GUSTS IN THE 50-60-KT RANGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND
SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CAPPI DATA
FROM 7 KM INDICATE RENEWED CONVECTION FROM SERN MT TO SWRN SD IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG DCVA PRECEDING AN UPSTREAM POTENT
TROUGH...AND ADDITIONAL SVR RISK MAY CONTINUE BEHIND ONGOING
MULTICELL CLUSTERS.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD/NEWD DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. POLEWARD MASS FLUXES ALONG A TROUGH-PRECEDING
LLJ -- ALREADY SAMPLED BY ABR/BIS VWPS AS SHOWING 20-30 KT OF FLOW
IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL -- WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E
AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SVR POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY
THIS ACTIVITY.

..COHEN.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   43360336 44190378 45580443 46300531 47560664 48790640
            48910311 48140140 44799971 43430021 43360336





000
ACUS11 KWNS 280220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280219
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-280415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1558
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MONTANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456...457...

VALID 280219Z - 280415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
456...457...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SVR RISK CONTINUES IN WWS 456 AND 457.

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING MEASURED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS...CONTINUE FROM ERN MT TO THE THE WRN DAKOTAS. SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FRONTOGENETIC BOUNDARY OVERTAKING THE WRN EXTENT OF
MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY
IS ANALYZED AS A N/S-ORIENTED COLD FRONT FROM THE ERN ONE-QUARTER OF
MT INTO CNTRL WY...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG PRESSURE RISE-FALL
COUPLET FROM W TO E ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MT/NRN WY. THIS HIGHLIGHTS
THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
STRENGTHENING ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT ENHANCING BACKGROUND FLOW
FOR SVR-WIND POTENTIAL WITH CONVECTION...AMIDST 30-45 KT OF DEEP
SHEAR ENCOURAGING ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED TSTMS.

THE BIS AND ABR 00Z RAOBS SAMPLE MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY AND
LIMITED CAPPING...SUPPORTING CONTINUED EWD/NEWD SPREAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH LARGE DCAPE -- OVER 1000 J/KG -- ENHANCING
DOWNBURSTS AND THEIR PROPENSITY TO MANIFEST STRENGTHENING
LARGE-SCALE WIND FIELDS AS SVR WIND GUSTS AT THE SFC. RECENT
MEASURED GUSTS IN THE 50-60-KT RANGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND
SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CAPPI DATA
FROM 7 KM INDICATE RENEWED CONVECTION FROM SERN MT TO SWRN SD IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG DCVA PRECEDING AN UPSTREAM POTENT
TROUGH...AND ADDITIONAL SVR RISK MAY CONTINUE BEHIND ONGOING
MULTICELL CLUSTERS.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD/NEWD DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. POLEWARD MASS FLUXES ALONG A TROUGH-PRECEDING
LLJ -- ALREADY SAMPLED BY ABR/BIS VWPS AS SHOWING 20-30 KT OF FLOW
IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL -- WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E
AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO MAINTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SVR POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY
THIS ACTIVITY.

..COHEN.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   43360336 44190378 45580443 46300531 47560664 48790640
            48910311 48140140 44799971 43430021 43360336






000
ACUS01 KWNS 280044
SWODY1
SPC AC 280042

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN KS TO WRN MN...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.  SEVERE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...

LATEST WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS SPREADING ACROSS
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OF MT/WY TOWARD THE WRN DAKOTAS.  NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL SPEED
MAX WHERE DIFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR ROBUST
DEEP CONVECTION.  SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS
THIS REGION WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED DEEP
ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  WHILE A FEW TORNADOES MAY ULTIMATELY BE NOTED
WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE COMMON
WITH FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTION.  SEVERAL MEASURED WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60KT HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AND A N-S SQUALL LINE IS
EMERGING OVER WRN SD ATTM.  SEVERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE
AS IT MOVES EAST THIS EVENING.  FARTHER NORTH...00Z SOUNDING FROM
GGW EXHIBITS SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND SFC-6KM SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 60KT.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW FROM NERN MT INTO
NWRN ND.

..DARROW.. 07/28/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 280044
SWODY1
SPC AC 280042

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN KS TO WRN MN...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.  SEVERE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...

LATEST WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS SPREADING ACROSS
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OF MT/WY TOWARD THE WRN DAKOTAS.  NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL SPEED
MAX WHERE DIFLUENT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR ROBUST
DEEP CONVECTION.  SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS
THIS REGION WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED DEEP
ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  WHILE A FEW TORNADOES MAY ULTIMATELY BE NOTED
WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE COMMON
WITH FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTION.  SEVERAL MEASURED WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60KT HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AND A N-S SQUALL LINE IS
EMERGING OVER WRN SD ATTM.  SEVERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE
AS IT MOVES EAST THIS EVENING.  FARTHER NORTH...00Z SOUNDING FROM
GGW EXHIBITS SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND SFC-6KM SHEAR IN
EXCESS OF 60KT.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW FROM NERN MT INTO
NWRN ND.

..DARROW.. 07/28/2015





000
ACUS11 KWNS 272351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272351
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-280215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1557
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MT...WRN/CNTRL ND...CNTRL/N-CNTRL
SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 272351Z - 280215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE REMAINS LIKELY THIS
EVENING...MOST LIKELY BEFORE 01Z...ACROSS PARTS OF NERN MT INTO
WRN/CNTRL ND...AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO CNTRL SD.

DISCUSSION...AS ADDRESSED IN PREVIOUSLY ISSUED MCD 1554 FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN
PARTS OF NERN MT AND WRN/CNTRL ND. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW
TO ENTER THESE AREAS OUT OF UPSTREAM WW 456. HOWEVER...WITH WATER
VAPOR LOOPS SUGGESTING FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUING TO OVERTAKE THE
ANTECEDENTLY CAPPED...BUT STRONGLY UNSTABLE...BOUNDARY-LAYER
AIR...THE SVR WIND/HAIL RISK WILL LIKELY INCREASE GOING INTO THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHERMORE...MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND A SUPERCELL
EVOLVING OVER WRN SD WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO CNTRL SD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES. THE NEW WW WOULD
LIKELY EXTEND SWD INTO CNTRL SD...AS WELL.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON   44100064 45890145 46430350 47960493 48700538 48940380
            48740146 47730034 45419916 44129963 44100064





000
ACUS11 KWNS 272351
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272351
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-280215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1557
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MT...WRN/CNTRL ND...CNTRL/N-CNTRL
SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 272351Z - 280215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE REMAINS LIKELY THIS
EVENING...MOST LIKELY BEFORE 01Z...ACROSS PARTS OF NERN MT INTO
WRN/CNTRL ND...AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO CNTRL SD.

DISCUSSION...AS ADDRESSED IN PREVIOUSLY ISSUED MCD 1554 FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN
PARTS OF NERN MT AND WRN/CNTRL ND. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOW
TO ENTER THESE AREAS OUT OF UPSTREAM WW 456. HOWEVER...WITH WATER
VAPOR LOOPS SUGGESTING FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUING TO OVERTAKE THE
ANTECEDENTLY CAPPED...BUT STRONGLY UNSTABLE...BOUNDARY-LAYER
AIR...THE SVR WIND/HAIL RISK WILL LIKELY INCREASE GOING INTO THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. FURTHERMORE...MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND A SUPERCELL
EVOLVING OVER WRN SD WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO CNTRL SD INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES. THE NEW WW WOULD
LIKELY EXTEND SWD INTO CNTRL SD...AS WELL.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON   44100064 45890145 46430350 47960493 48700538 48940380
            48740146 47730034 45419916 44129963 44100064






000
ACUS11 KWNS 272333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272332
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-280130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1556
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT...WRN SD...NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456...

VALID 272332Z - 280130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS CONTINUES ACROSS WW 456.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT THE SPATIAL GAP BETWEEN
STRONG DCVA PRECEDING A BECOMING-NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN/CNTRL MT AND MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR SAMPLED OVER ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND NERN WY IS
CLOSING. A CORRESPONDING UPSWING IN THE NUMBER AND INTENSITY OF
TSTMS IS ONGOING BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MOSAIC
RADAR IMAGERY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
ALOFT COOL WITH FORCED ASCENT DRIVING ADIABATIC COOLING. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A MIX OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND OCCASIONAL
SUPERCELLS AFFECTING THE AREA.

THE GGW VWP SAMPLES 40-50 KT OF MERIDIONAL FLOW IN THE 4-6-KM-AGL
LAYER OFFERING STRONG DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SVR WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY...AND SIGNIFICANTLY SVR
WIND/HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT OWING TO THE STEEP-LAPSE-RATE PROFILE
IN PLACE. AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN INCLUDE THE ERN ONE-THIRD OF MT.
THIS IS WHERE BUOYANCY IS MOST SUBSTANTIAL...AND A TIGHTENING
CROSS-FRONTAL ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS A
FRONTOGENETIC COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD OVER CNTRL MT. A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN
ERN MT...PARTICULARLY IN PROXIMITY TO...AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF A
COLD-FRONT-PRECEDING...WAVY...QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM
NERN MT TO THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. THIS IS WHERE STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS IS ENHANCING SRH TO AROUND 150-200 M2/S2 IN
THE 0-1-KM-AGL LAYER BASED ON THE GGW VWP. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL MODE
TRANSITIONS TO QUASI-LINEAR COMBINED WITH THE OVERTAKING
FRONTOGENETIC BOUNDARY MAY LIMIT THE SVR RISK.

MORE ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION CONTINUES IN A PRESENTLY
WEAKER-FORCING-FOR-ASCENT REGIME INTO WRN SD...WHERE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN NOTED. SUCH ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN
THE SHORT TERM WITH SVR HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL...AND AN UPSWING IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

..COHEN.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   45740377 45630247 44910151 43930138 43430155 43260220
            43260294 43630387 44100478 44520568 44860648 45570741
            46780783 47790805 48340795 48730730 48660633 47400517
            46140444 45740377





000
ACUS11 KWNS 272333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272332
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-280130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1556
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MT...WRN SD...NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456...

VALID 272332Z - 280130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS CONTINUES ACROSS WW 456.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT THE SPATIAL GAP BETWEEN
STRONG DCVA PRECEDING A BECOMING-NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN/CNTRL MT AND MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR SAMPLED OVER ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND NERN WY IS
CLOSING. A CORRESPONDING UPSWING IN THE NUMBER AND INTENSITY OF
TSTMS IS ONGOING BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MOSAIC
RADAR IMAGERY...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
ALOFT COOL WITH FORCED ASCENT DRIVING ADIABATIC COOLING. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A MIX OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND OCCASIONAL
SUPERCELLS AFFECTING THE AREA.

THE GGW VWP SAMPLES 40-50 KT OF MERIDIONAL FLOW IN THE 4-6-KM-AGL
LAYER OFFERING STRONG DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SVR WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY...AND SIGNIFICANTLY SVR
WIND/HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT OWING TO THE STEEP-LAPSE-RATE PROFILE
IN PLACE. AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN INCLUDE THE ERN ONE-THIRD OF MT.
THIS IS WHERE BUOYANCY IS MOST SUBSTANTIAL...AND A TIGHTENING
CROSS-FRONTAL ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS A
FRONTOGENETIC COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD OVER CNTRL MT. A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IN
ERN MT...PARTICULARLY IN PROXIMITY TO...AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF A
COLD-FRONT-PRECEDING...WAVY...QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM
NERN MT TO THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. THIS IS WHERE STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS IS ENHANCING SRH TO AROUND 150-200 M2/S2 IN
THE 0-1-KM-AGL LAYER BASED ON THE GGW VWP. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL MODE
TRANSITIONS TO QUASI-LINEAR COMBINED WITH THE OVERTAKING
FRONTOGENETIC BOUNDARY MAY LIMIT THE SVR RISK.

MORE ISOLATED SVR CONVECTION CONTINUES IN A PRESENTLY
WEAKER-FORCING-FOR-ASCENT REGIME INTO WRN SD...WHERE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN NOTED. SUCH ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN
THE SHORT TERM WITH SVR HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL...AND AN UPSWING IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

..COHEN.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   45740377 45630247 44910151 43930138 43430155 43260220
            43260294 43630387 44100478 44520568 44860648 45570741
            46780783 47790805 48340795 48730730 48660633 47400517
            46140444 45740377






000
ACUS11 KWNS 272157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272157
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-280000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1555
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NEB PNHDL...NERN CO...NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 272157Z - 280000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND NORTHEAST CO THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO
THE NEB PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST KS.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...BUT COVERAGE OF INTENSE STORMS IS
UNCERTAIN.  TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A RELATIVELY
RAPID INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL WY DURING THE
PAST 1-2 HOURS...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER TROUGH.
SO FAR...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN CO...BUT RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
SURFACE-BASED CU OVER PARTS OF THIS AREA.  CAM GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM WESTERN NEB INTO NORTHWEST
KS...WITH ACTIVITY INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS EAST OF A LINE FROM AIA-GLD.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.  THE STRONGER CELLS COULD ATTAIN
ROTATION WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  MAIN CONCERN IS
COVERAGE OF INTENSE STORMS AND WHETHER A WW IS WARRANTED.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THIS REGION.

..HART/DIAL.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   42290488 42970399 42710233 41530137 39960118 39140217
            39260359 40310446 42290488






000
ACUS11 KWNS 272157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272157
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-280000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1555
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NEB PNHDL...NERN CO...NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 272157Z - 280000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND NORTHEAST CO THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO
THE NEB PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST KS.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...BUT COVERAGE OF INTENSE STORMS IS
UNCERTAIN.  TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A RELATIVELY
RAPID INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL WY DURING THE
PAST 1-2 HOURS...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER TROUGH.
SO FAR...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN CO...BUT RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
SURFACE-BASED CU OVER PARTS OF THIS AREA.  CAM GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM WESTERN NEB INTO NORTHWEST
KS...WITH ACTIVITY INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS EAST OF A LINE FROM AIA-GLD.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.  THE STRONGER CELLS COULD ATTAIN
ROTATION WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  MAIN CONCERN IS
COVERAGE OF INTENSE STORMS AND WHETHER A WW IS WARRANTED.  WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THIS REGION.

..HART/DIAL.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   42290488 42970399 42710233 41530137 39960118 39140217
            39260359 40310446 42290488





000
ACUS11 KWNS 272145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272144
NDZ000-MTZ000-280015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0444 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MT AND WRN/CNTRL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 272144Z - 280015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF NERN MT AND WRN/CNTRL ND WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SPREAD NEWD FROM WRN SD...NERN
WY...CNTRL/ERN MT INTO THE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
SAMPLED BY THE 19Z GGW RAOB AND THE 20Z BIS RAOBS. THESE RAOBS
INDICATE MODEST CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM EML...THOUGH COOLING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT PRECEDING A STRONG
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE W WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT EROSION OF
THE CAP FOR CONVECTION TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL -- POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT WITH ANY
MORE DISCRETE UPDRAFTS -- SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE
STEEP-TROPOSPHERIC-LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR. WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 75 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE ESTABLISHED BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE STRONGER
DCVA APPROACHES FROM THE W. ALSO...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS LOW-LEVEL SRH INCREASES...THOUGH EVOLVING QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODES WITH MORE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT CONVECTION MAY LIMIT
SUCH POTENTIAL.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON   47320408 48670573 49010399 48830208 47960053 46330055
            46120259 46330360 47320408






000
ACUS11 KWNS 272145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272144
NDZ000-MTZ000-280015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0444 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MT AND WRN/CNTRL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 272144Z - 280015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF NERN MT AND WRN/CNTRL ND WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SPREAD NEWD FROM WRN SD...NERN
WY...CNTRL/ERN MT INTO THE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
SAMPLED BY THE 19Z GGW RAOB AND THE 20Z BIS RAOBS. THESE RAOBS
INDICATE MODEST CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM EML...THOUGH COOLING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT PRECEDING A STRONG
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE W WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT EROSION OF
THE CAP FOR CONVECTION TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL -- POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT WITH ANY
MORE DISCRETE UPDRAFTS -- SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE
STEEP-TROPOSPHERIC-LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR. WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 75 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE ESTABLISHED BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE STRONGER
DCVA APPROACHES FROM THE W. ALSO...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS LOW-LEVEL SRH INCREASES...THOUGH EVOLVING QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODES WITH MORE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT CONVECTION MAY LIMIT
SUCH POTENTIAL.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON   47320408 48670573 49010399 48830208 47960053 46330055
            46120259 46330360 47320408





000
ACUS11 KWNS 272130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272129
WYZ000-272330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1553
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272129Z - 272330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN WY W/SW OF RECENTLY ISSUED SVR TSTM
WW 456 WILL EXPERIENCE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE W/SW OF WW 456 WILL
BE UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THE SRN EXTENT OF STRONG DCVA PRECEDING A POTENT
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS GLANCING NRN/CNTRL/WRN WY PER RECENT WATER VAPOR
LOOPS...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY WHILE SPREADING
EWD/NEWD AMIDST ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. DEEP INVERTED-VEE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
ENCOURAGE SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION AND THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED SVR WIND
GUSTS. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/BOWING SEGMENTS...ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE DEEP
SHEAR /25-30 KT SAMPLED BY THE RIW VWP/ ENHANCED BY MID-LEVEL FLOW
SURROUNDING THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL DEARTH OF TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE -- E.G. PW VALUES AROUND 0.50-0.75 INCH PER GPS DATA --
SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE/SVR COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR WW
ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...

LAT...LON   44880884 44540739 44210624 43050626 42540729 42720829
            43290899 44210943 44880884





000
ACUS11 KWNS 272130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272129
WYZ000-272330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1553
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272129Z - 272330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN WY W/SW OF RECENTLY ISSUED SVR TSTM
WW 456 WILL EXPERIENCE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE W/SW OF WW 456 WILL
BE UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THE SRN EXTENT OF STRONG DCVA PRECEDING A POTENT
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS GLANCING NRN/CNTRL/WRN WY PER RECENT WATER VAPOR
LOOPS...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY WHILE SPREADING
EWD/NEWD AMIDST ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. DEEP INVERTED-VEE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
ENCOURAGE SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION AND THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED SVR WIND
GUSTS. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/BOWING SEGMENTS...ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE DEEP
SHEAR /25-30 KT SAMPLED BY THE RIW VWP/ ENHANCED BY MID-LEVEL FLOW
SURROUNDING THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL DEARTH OF TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE -- E.G. PW VALUES AROUND 0.50-0.75 INCH PER GPS DATA --
SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE/SVR COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR WW
ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...

LAT...LON   44880884 44540739 44210624 43050626 42540729 42720829
            43290899 44210943 44880884






000
ACUS11 KWNS 272130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272129
WYZ000-272330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1553
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272129Z - 272330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN WY W/SW OF RECENTLY ISSUED SVR TSTM
WW 456 WILL EXPERIENCE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE W/SW OF WW 456 WILL
BE UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THE SRN EXTENT OF STRONG DCVA PRECEDING A POTENT
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS GLANCING NRN/CNTRL/WRN WY PER RECENT WATER VAPOR
LOOPS...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY WHILE SPREADING
EWD/NEWD AMIDST ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. DEEP INVERTED-VEE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
ENCOURAGE SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION AND THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED SVR WIND
GUSTS. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/BOWING SEGMENTS...ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE DEEP
SHEAR /25-30 KT SAMPLED BY THE RIW VWP/ ENHANCED BY MID-LEVEL FLOW
SURROUNDING THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL DEARTH OF TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE -- E.G. PW VALUES AROUND 0.50-0.75 INCH PER GPS DATA --
SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE/SVR COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR WW
ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...

LAT...LON   44880884 44540739 44210624 43050626 42540729 42720829
            43290899 44210943 44880884





000
ACUS11 KWNS 272130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272129
WYZ000-272330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1553
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272129Z - 272330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN WY W/SW OF RECENTLY ISSUED SVR TSTM
WW 456 WILL EXPERIENCE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE W/SW OF WW 456 WILL
BE UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THE SRN EXTENT OF STRONG DCVA PRECEDING A POTENT
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS GLANCING NRN/CNTRL/WRN WY PER RECENT WATER VAPOR
LOOPS...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY WHILE SPREADING
EWD/NEWD AMIDST ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. DEEP INVERTED-VEE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
ENCOURAGE SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION AND THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED SVR WIND
GUSTS. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/BOWING SEGMENTS...ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE DEEP
SHEAR /25-30 KT SAMPLED BY THE RIW VWP/ ENHANCED BY MID-LEVEL FLOW
SURROUNDING THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL DEARTH OF TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE -- E.G. PW VALUES AROUND 0.50-0.75 INCH PER GPS DATA --
SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE/SVR COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR WW
ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...

LAT...LON   44880884 44540739 44210624 43050626 42540729 42720829
            43290899 44210943 44880884






000
ACUS11 KWNS 272050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272050
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-272215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1552
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NORTHEAST WY...EXTREME SOUTHEAST MT...AND
WESTERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 272050Z - 272215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST WY AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST MT INTO WESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE TO
BE COORDINATED SOON FOR THIS REGION AND LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH AS
DISCUSSED IN MCD 1551.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN LIGHTNING DATA...GOES-R CLOUD-TOP COOLING
PRODUCT AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A RELATIVELY RAPID INCREASE IN
TSTM INTENSITIES WITH STORMS TRACKING TO THE NNE ACROSS FAR NE WY
AND FAR WRN SD IN VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT IN FAR ERN WY AND A N-S
ORIENTED PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THESE BOUNDARIES
FAVORS SUSTAINED/STRONG UPDRAFTS...WHILE STRENGTHENING BULK SHEAR
WILL ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ORGANIZATION.  THE RECENT INCREASE
IN STORM INTENSITIES IS LIKELY INDICATING THE LEADING EXTENT OF
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.

..PETERS/GOSS.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON   44350564 45970428 46010238 44710180 43830196 42970203
            43020385 43530438 43590516 44350564






000
ACUS11 KWNS 272050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272050
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-272215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1552
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NORTHEAST WY...EXTREME SOUTHEAST MT...AND
WESTERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 272050Z - 272215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST WY AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST MT INTO WESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE TO
BE COORDINATED SOON FOR THIS REGION AND LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH AS
DISCUSSED IN MCD 1551.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN LIGHTNING DATA...GOES-R CLOUD-TOP COOLING
PRODUCT AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A RELATIVELY RAPID INCREASE IN
TSTM INTENSITIES WITH STORMS TRACKING TO THE NNE ACROSS FAR NE WY
AND FAR WRN SD IN VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT IN FAR ERN WY AND A N-S
ORIENTED PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THESE BOUNDARIES
FAVORS SUSTAINED/STRONG UPDRAFTS...WHILE STRENGTHENING BULK SHEAR
WILL ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ORGANIZATION.  THE RECENT INCREASE
IN STORM INTENSITIES IS LIKELY INDICATING THE LEADING EXTENT OF
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.

..PETERS/GOSS.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON   44350564 45970428 46010238 44710180 43830196 42970203
            43020385 43530438 43590516 44350564





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271944
MTZ000-WYZ000-272145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN WY AND ERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271944Z - 272145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...WW
ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS AS OF 19Z SHOWS DUAL LOWS...ONE OVER ERN
MT...AND THE OTHER OVER CNTRL WY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE
LOW OVER ERN MT...WHILE A WARM FRONT STRETCHES NWD ALONG THE MT/ND
BORDER AND INTO CANADA. THE POST-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN WY AND ERN MT IS CHARACTERIZED BY NLY WINDS...
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
50S TO AROUND 60. VISIBLE/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER
TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS APPROACHING THE MCD AREA FROM THE
W. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF NRN WY AND ERN MT
SHOULD ALLOW SFC TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED INCREASE IN INSTABILITY LIKELY.

AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS
THE REGION FROM W TO E THIS AFTERNOON...AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP ALONG WITH A
19Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM GLASGOW MT SUGGEST MUCAPE AROUND
1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD GENERALLY BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT. THIS FAVORABLE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL LIKELY ALLOW ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NRN WY/CNTRL MT TO
QUICKLY BECOME ORGANIZED AND POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY WITH EWD EXTENT.

MOST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD FORM/MOVE INTO THE MCD AREA BY 22-23Z.
HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY
OCCURRING IN S-CNTRL MT/NWRN WY. IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...THEN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

..GLEASON/GOSS.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

LAT...LON   47660794 47670631 47260476 46940436 45000496 44040621
            44030793 44350944 45030976 46560921 47660794






000
ACUS01 KWNS 271937
SWODY1
SPC AC 271936

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR ERN MT AND INTO ND
AND PARTS OF NWRN/N CENTRAL SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. AND
SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR EASTERN MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LESS...BUT STILL PRESENT...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

...20Z UPDATE...

THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
THIS UPDATE CYCLE. CAPPING STILL REMAINS OVER THE SLIGHT AND
ENHANCED RISK AREA AS IS EVIDENT IN THE 19Z GGW RAOB. AS UPPER
FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ADDITIONAL HEATING/MIXING SHOULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
00Z AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THEREAFTER. FOR FURTHER
DETAILS...SEE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK DISCUSSION.

..LEITMAN.. 07/27/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
AS WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
TODAY...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/ENERGETIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
NEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...IMPINGING AS IT DOES ON BACKGROUND CENTRAL U.S. RIDGING.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN MT ATTM IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN/SHIFT NNEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH TIME...WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES EWD AND INTO THE NRN -- AND EVENTUALLY
CENTRAL -- PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...N CENTRAL CONUS AND SWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
BACKGROUND RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS ACROSS THE PLAINS ATTM...AND
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO REMAIN
LARGELY CAPPED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WITH TIME
HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING/DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH THE
ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL
EVENTUALLY YIELD INITIATION OF CONVECTION.  INITIAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS -- LIKELY WITHIN
SEVERAL SEPARATE CLUSTERS FROM ERN MT SWD TO ERN CO.  FARTHER
SE...STORM REDEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR INVOF OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING IA CONVECTION AS A WEAK VORT MAX SHIFTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE INITIAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN A KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINAL/MULTICELL ORGANIZATION...THE
CONTINUED ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASINGLY STRONG SWLYS AT MID LEVELS.  AS THIS STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT OVERSPREADS A LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING THROUGH THE
EVENING...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
WELL-ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS.  INITIAL CELLULAR STORM MODES
SHOULD GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO LINES/BOWS IN SOME AREAS --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS ND WHERE A BOWING MCS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.
ALONG WITH ATTENDANT WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS ND...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CELLULAR
CONVECTION.  FARTHER S...MAIN RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL -- WITH THE ENTIRE ZONE OF GREATEST RISK TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 271937
SWODY1
SPC AC 271936

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR ERN MT AND INTO ND
AND PARTS OF NWRN/N CENTRAL SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. AND
SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR EASTERN MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LESS...BUT STILL PRESENT...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

...20Z UPDATE...

THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
THIS UPDATE CYCLE. CAPPING STILL REMAINS OVER THE SLIGHT AND
ENHANCED RISK AREA AS IS EVIDENT IN THE 19Z GGW RAOB. AS UPPER
FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ADDITIONAL HEATING/MIXING SHOULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
00Z AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THEREAFTER. FOR FURTHER
DETAILS...SEE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK DISCUSSION.

..LEITMAN.. 07/27/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
AS WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
TODAY...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/ENERGETIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
NEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...IMPINGING AS IT DOES ON BACKGROUND CENTRAL U.S. RIDGING.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN MT ATTM IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN/SHIFT NNEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH TIME...WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES EWD AND INTO THE NRN -- AND EVENTUALLY
CENTRAL -- PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...N CENTRAL CONUS AND SWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
BACKGROUND RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS ACROSS THE PLAINS ATTM...AND
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO REMAIN
LARGELY CAPPED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WITH TIME
HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING/DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH THE
ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL
EVENTUALLY YIELD INITIATION OF CONVECTION.  INITIAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS -- LIKELY WITHIN
SEVERAL SEPARATE CLUSTERS FROM ERN MT SWD TO ERN CO.  FARTHER
SE...STORM REDEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR INVOF OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING IA CONVECTION AS A WEAK VORT MAX SHIFTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE INITIAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN A KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINAL/MULTICELL ORGANIZATION...THE
CONTINUED ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASINGLY STRONG SWLYS AT MID LEVELS.  AS THIS STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT OVERSPREADS A LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING THROUGH THE
EVENING...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
WELL-ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS.  INITIAL CELLULAR STORM MODES
SHOULD GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO LINES/BOWS IN SOME AREAS --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS ND WHERE A BOWING MCS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.
ALONG WITH ATTENDANT WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS ND...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CELLULAR
CONVECTION.  FARTHER S...MAIN RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL -- WITH THE ENTIRE ZONE OF GREATEST RISK TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 271937
SWODY1
SPC AC 271936

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR ERN MT AND INTO ND
AND PARTS OF NWRN/N CENTRAL SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. AND
SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR EASTERN MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LESS...BUT STILL PRESENT...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

...20Z UPDATE...

THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
THIS UPDATE CYCLE. CAPPING STILL REMAINS OVER THE SLIGHT AND
ENHANCED RISK AREA AS IS EVIDENT IN THE 19Z GGW RAOB. AS UPPER
FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ADDITIONAL HEATING/MIXING SHOULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
00Z AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THEREAFTER. FOR FURTHER
DETAILS...SEE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK DISCUSSION.

..LEITMAN.. 07/27/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
AS WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
TODAY...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/ENERGETIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
NEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...IMPINGING AS IT DOES ON BACKGROUND CENTRAL U.S. RIDGING.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN MT ATTM IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN/SHIFT NNEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH TIME...WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES EWD AND INTO THE NRN -- AND EVENTUALLY
CENTRAL -- PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...N CENTRAL CONUS AND SWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
BACKGROUND RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS ACROSS THE PLAINS ATTM...AND
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO REMAIN
LARGELY CAPPED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WITH TIME
HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING/DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH THE
ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL
EVENTUALLY YIELD INITIATION OF CONVECTION.  INITIAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS -- LIKELY WITHIN
SEVERAL SEPARATE CLUSTERS FROM ERN MT SWD TO ERN CO.  FARTHER
SE...STORM REDEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR INVOF OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING IA CONVECTION AS A WEAK VORT MAX SHIFTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE INITIAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN A KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINAL/MULTICELL ORGANIZATION...THE
CONTINUED ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASINGLY STRONG SWLYS AT MID LEVELS.  AS THIS STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT OVERSPREADS A LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING THROUGH THE
EVENING...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
WELL-ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS.  INITIAL CELLULAR STORM MODES
SHOULD GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO LINES/BOWS IN SOME AREAS --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS ND WHERE A BOWING MCS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.
ALONG WITH ATTENDANT WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS ND...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CELLULAR
CONVECTION.  FARTHER S...MAIN RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL -- WITH THE ENTIRE ZONE OF GREATEST RISK TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 271937
SWODY1
SPC AC 271936

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR ERN MT AND INTO ND
AND PARTS OF NWRN/N CENTRAL SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. AND
SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR EASTERN MONTANA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LESS...BUT STILL PRESENT...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

...20Z UPDATE...

THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE
THIS UPDATE CYCLE. CAPPING STILL REMAINS OVER THE SLIGHT AND
ENHANCED RISK AREA AS IS EVIDENT IN THE 19Z GGW RAOB. AS UPPER
FORCING AND HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...ADDITIONAL HEATING/MIXING SHOULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
00Z AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THEREAFTER. FOR FURTHER
DETAILS...SEE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK DISCUSSION.

..LEITMAN.. 07/27/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
AS WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
TODAY...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/ENERGETIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
NEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...IMPINGING AS IT DOES ON BACKGROUND CENTRAL U.S. RIDGING.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN MT ATTM IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN/SHIFT NNEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH TIME...WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES EWD AND INTO THE NRN -- AND EVENTUALLY
CENTRAL -- PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...N CENTRAL CONUS AND SWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
BACKGROUND RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS ACROSS THE PLAINS ATTM...AND
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO REMAIN
LARGELY CAPPED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WITH TIME
HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING/DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH THE
ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL
EVENTUALLY YIELD INITIATION OF CONVECTION.  INITIAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS -- LIKELY WITHIN
SEVERAL SEPARATE CLUSTERS FROM ERN MT SWD TO ERN CO.  FARTHER
SE...STORM REDEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR INVOF OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING IA CONVECTION AS A WEAK VORT MAX SHIFTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE INITIAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN A KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINAL/MULTICELL ORGANIZATION...THE
CONTINUED ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASINGLY STRONG SWLYS AT MID LEVELS.  AS THIS STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT OVERSPREADS A LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING THROUGH THE
EVENING...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
WELL-ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS.  INITIAL CELLULAR STORM MODES
SHOULD GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO LINES/BOWS IN SOME AREAS --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS ND WHERE A BOWING MCS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.
ALONG WITH ATTENDANT WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS ND...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CELLULAR
CONVECTION.  FARTHER S...MAIN RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL -- WITH THE ENTIRE ZONE OF GREATEST RISK TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.






000
ACUS11 KWNS 271741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271740
IAZ000-272045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271740Z - 272045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A RELATIVELY COMPACT MCS WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IA THIS AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH MOST
OF THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS /POTENTIALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 50 KT/ CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DISCUSSION...DMX RADAR TRENDS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD-TOP COOLING PER
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINEAR MCS
ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IA.  AS THE STORMS MOVED THROUGH
THE COUNTIES OF BOONE...DALLAS...AND MADISON THE ATTENDANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAD MOVED AHEAD OF THE STRONGER BAND OF STORMS INDICATING
ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS ATTENDANT TO THIS MCS MAY NOT BE REACHING
THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER...IF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY CAN OVERTAKE THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AS MAY BE ONGOING IN NORTHEAST DALLAS COUNTY AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN POLK COUNTY...THEN 55+ KT WLY WINDS OBSERVED
AROUND 500 FEET AGL IN THAT PORTION OF DALLAS COUNTY WILL HAVE A
GREATER POTENTIAL TO REACH THE SURFACE.

GIVEN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS MCS WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD POOL
AND REAR-INFLOW JET OF 40-45 KT AT 1-2 KM AGL PER DMX RADAR
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE-BASED INFLOW REGIME THAT HAS MODERATELY
STRONG INSTABILITY...THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...TRACKING TO EAST ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT.  AN
EVENTUAL SOUTHEASTWARD TURN MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 19-20Z AS THE SOUTHERN
FLANK REACHES POWESHIEK AND MAHASKA COUNTIES WHERE THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT IS ORIENTED NW-SE.  ALTHOUGH SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE HAD
DIFFICULTY FORECASTING THIS COMPLEX...THE HRRR /THOUGH SLOW WITH ITS
DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT/ SUGGESTS THIS STORM COMPLEX SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH AN EVENTUAL SEWD MOVEMENT.  ELY
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A WEAK
EWD-MOVING MIDLEVEL IMPULSE AIDS IN SUSTAINING TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THIS MCS.

..PETERS/GOSS.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

LAT...LON   41909250 41849204 41549168 40999158 40909197 40899242
            41129292 41339404 41629419 41869415 42029404 41909250





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271740
IAZ000-272045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271740Z - 272045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A RELATIVELY COMPACT MCS WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IA THIS AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH MOST
OF THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS /POTENTIALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 50 KT/ CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DISCUSSION...DMX RADAR TRENDS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD-TOP COOLING PER
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINEAR MCS
ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IA.  AS THE STORMS MOVED THROUGH
THE COUNTIES OF BOONE...DALLAS...AND MADISON THE ATTENDANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAD MOVED AHEAD OF THE STRONGER BAND OF STORMS INDICATING
ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS ATTENDANT TO THIS MCS MAY NOT BE REACHING
THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER...IF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY CAN OVERTAKE THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AS MAY BE ONGOING IN NORTHEAST DALLAS COUNTY AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN POLK COUNTY...THEN 55+ KT WLY WINDS OBSERVED
AROUND 500 FEET AGL IN THAT PORTION OF DALLAS COUNTY WILL HAVE A
GREATER POTENTIAL TO REACH THE SURFACE.

GIVEN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS MCS WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD POOL
AND REAR-INFLOW JET OF 40-45 KT AT 1-2 KM AGL PER DMX RADAR
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE-BASED INFLOW REGIME THAT HAS MODERATELY
STRONG INSTABILITY...THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...TRACKING TO EAST ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT.  AN
EVENTUAL SOUTHEASTWARD TURN MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 19-20Z AS THE SOUTHERN
FLANK REACHES POWESHIEK AND MAHASKA COUNTIES WHERE THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT IS ORIENTED NW-SE.  ALTHOUGH SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE HAD
DIFFICULTY FORECASTING THIS COMPLEX...THE HRRR /THOUGH SLOW WITH ITS
DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT/ SUGGESTS THIS STORM COMPLEX SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH AN EVENTUAL SEWD MOVEMENT.  ELY
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A WEAK
EWD-MOVING MIDLEVEL IMPULSE AIDS IN SUSTAINING TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THIS MCS.

..PETERS/GOSS.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

LAT...LON   41909250 41849204 41549168 40999158 40909197 40899242
            41129292 41339404 41629419 41869415 42029404 41909250






000
ACUS11 KWNS 271741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271740
IAZ000-272045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271740Z - 272045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A RELATIVELY COMPACT MCS WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IA THIS AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH MOST
OF THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS /POTENTIALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 50 KT/ CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DISCUSSION...DMX RADAR TRENDS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD-TOP COOLING PER
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINEAR MCS
ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IA.  AS THE STORMS MOVED THROUGH
THE COUNTIES OF BOONE...DALLAS...AND MADISON THE ATTENDANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAD MOVED AHEAD OF THE STRONGER BAND OF STORMS INDICATING
ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS ATTENDANT TO THIS MCS MAY NOT BE REACHING
THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER...IF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY CAN OVERTAKE THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AS MAY BE ONGOING IN NORTHEAST DALLAS COUNTY AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN POLK COUNTY...THEN 55+ KT WLY WINDS OBSERVED
AROUND 500 FEET AGL IN THAT PORTION OF DALLAS COUNTY WILL HAVE A
GREATER POTENTIAL TO REACH THE SURFACE.

GIVEN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS MCS WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD POOL
AND REAR-INFLOW JET OF 40-45 KT AT 1-2 KM AGL PER DMX RADAR
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE-BASED INFLOW REGIME THAT HAS MODERATELY
STRONG INSTABILITY...THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...TRACKING TO EAST ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT.  AN
EVENTUAL SOUTHEASTWARD TURN MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 19-20Z AS THE SOUTHERN
FLANK REACHES POWESHIEK AND MAHASKA COUNTIES WHERE THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT IS ORIENTED NW-SE.  ALTHOUGH SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE HAD
DIFFICULTY FORECASTING THIS COMPLEX...THE HRRR /THOUGH SLOW WITH ITS
DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT/ SUGGESTS THIS STORM COMPLEX SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH AN EVENTUAL SEWD MOVEMENT.  ELY
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A WEAK
EWD-MOVING MIDLEVEL IMPULSE AIDS IN SUSTAINING TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THIS MCS.

..PETERS/GOSS.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

LAT...LON   41909250 41849204 41549168 40999158 40909197 40899242
            41129292 41339404 41629419 41869415 42029404 41909250





000
ACUS11 KWNS 271741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271740
IAZ000-272045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 271740Z - 272045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A RELATIVELY COMPACT MCS WILL ADVANCE TO THE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IA THIS AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH MOST
OF THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS /POTENTIALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 50 KT/ CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DISCUSSION...DMX RADAR TRENDS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD-TOP COOLING PER
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINEAR MCS
ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IA.  AS THE STORMS MOVED THROUGH
THE COUNTIES OF BOONE...DALLAS...AND MADISON THE ATTENDANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAD MOVED AHEAD OF THE STRONGER BAND OF STORMS INDICATING
ANY STRONGER WIND GUSTS ATTENDANT TO THIS MCS MAY NOT BE REACHING
THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER...IF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY CAN OVERTAKE THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AS MAY BE ONGOING IN NORTHEAST DALLAS COUNTY AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN POLK COUNTY...THEN 55+ KT WLY WINDS OBSERVED
AROUND 500 FEET AGL IN THAT PORTION OF DALLAS COUNTY WILL HAVE A
GREATER POTENTIAL TO REACH THE SURFACE.

GIVEN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS MCS WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD POOL
AND REAR-INFLOW JET OF 40-45 KT AT 1-2 KM AGL PER DMX RADAR
COMBINED WITH A SURFACE-BASED INFLOW REGIME THAT HAS MODERATELY
STRONG INSTABILITY...THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...TRACKING TO EAST ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT.  AN
EVENTUAL SOUTHEASTWARD TURN MAY OCCUR BETWEEN 19-20Z AS THE SOUTHERN
FLANK REACHES POWESHIEK AND MAHASKA COUNTIES WHERE THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT IS ORIENTED NW-SE.  ALTHOUGH SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE HAD
DIFFICULTY FORECASTING THIS COMPLEX...THE HRRR /THOUGH SLOW WITH ITS
DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT/ SUGGESTS THIS STORM COMPLEX SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH AN EVENTUAL SEWD MOVEMENT.  ELY
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A WEAK
EWD-MOVING MIDLEVEL IMPULSE AIDS IN SUSTAINING TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THIS MCS.

..PETERS/GOSS.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...

LAT...LON   41909250 41849204 41549168 40999158 40909197 40899242
            41129292 41339404 41629419 41869415 42029404 41909250






000
ACUS02 KWNS 271700
SWODY2
SPC AC 271659

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST...LOWER/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...AND NEW ENGLAND.

...SYNOPSIS...

A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL BRING A TROUGH EASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 12Z WED. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE MORNING AND EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL WI SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MO AND INTO SOUTHERN
KS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

FURTHER EAST...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MIGRATE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD NEW BRUNSWICK. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF MN/WI AND PERHAPS
AS FAR SOUTH AS IA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS EARLY-DAY CONVECTION MAY
PRODUCE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL. THIS EARLY CONVECTION ALSO
WILL COMPLICATE THE SCENARIO FOR AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THE REGION DUE TO CLOUD DEBRIS AND OUTFLOWS TRAVERSING THE AREA.
FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE BEST AREA FOR AIRMASS
RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF MORNING
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD SHIELD FROM FAR SOUTHERN MN/SOUTHWEST
WI INTO IA AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN MO. HERE...A NARROW
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXIST WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...RESULTING IN POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. STRONGER FORCING AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL RESIDE JUST NORTH OF THE BEST THERMODYNAMICS
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED BOWS/LINE
SEGMENTS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO...CAPABLE OF
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO FAR SE NEB AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KS...MORE
ISOLATED...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BRING A RISK FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM IN
THIS AREA.

...NEW ENGLAND...

THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE DURING PEAK HEATING. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND WILL INTENSIFY AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
RATHER WEAK...BUT STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLIES ABOVE ABOUT 700 MB
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING
CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A FEW MARGINAL SUPERCELLS. LAPSE RATES WILL BE
RATHER POOR...AND ONLY MARGINAL HAIL IS EXPECTED. BUT FAST STORM
MOTION AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT
GUSTY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

..LEITMAN.. 07/27/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 271700
SWODY2
SPC AC 271659

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST...LOWER/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...AND NEW ENGLAND.

...SYNOPSIS...

A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL BRING A TROUGH EASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY 12Z WED. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE MORNING AND EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL WI SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MO AND INTO SOUTHERN
KS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

FURTHER EAST...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MIGRATE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD NEW BRUNSWICK. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...UPPER MIDWEST/MO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF MN/WI AND PERHAPS
AS FAR SOUTH AS IA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS EARLY-DAY CONVECTION MAY
PRODUCE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL. THIS EARLY CONVECTION ALSO
WILL COMPLICATE THE SCENARIO FOR AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THE REGION DUE TO CLOUD DEBRIS AND OUTFLOWS TRAVERSING THE AREA.
FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE BEST AREA FOR AIRMASS
RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF MORNING
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD SHIELD FROM FAR SOUTHERN MN/SOUTHWEST
WI INTO IA AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN MO. HERE...A NARROW
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXIST WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...RESULTING IN POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING. STRONGER FORCING AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL RESIDE JUST NORTH OF THE BEST THERMODYNAMICS
BUT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED BOWS/LINE
SEGMENTS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO...CAPABLE OF
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO FAR SE NEB AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KS...MORE
ISOLATED...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BRING A RISK FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM IN
THIS AREA.

...NEW ENGLAND...

THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE DURING PEAK HEATING. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND WILL INTENSIFY AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
RATHER WEAK...BUT STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLIES ABOVE ABOUT 700 MB
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING
CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A FEW MARGINAL SUPERCELLS. LAPSE RATES WILL BE
RATHER POOR...AND ONLY MARGINAL HAIL IS EXPECTED. BUT FAST STORM
MOTION AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT
GUSTY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

..LEITMAN.. 07/27/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 271632
SWODY1
SPC AC 271630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR ERN MT AND INTO ND
AND PARTS OF NWRN/N CENTRAL SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. AND
SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LESS...BUT STILL PRESENT...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
AS WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
TODAY...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/ENERGETIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
NEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...IMPINGING AS IT DOES ON BACKGROUND CENTRAL U.S. RIDGING.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN MT ATTM IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN/SHIFT NNEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH TIME...WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES EWD AND INTO THE NRN -- AND EVENTUALLY
CENTRAL -- PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...N CENTRAL CONUS AND SWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
BACKGROUND RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS ACROSS THE PLAINS ATTM...AND
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO REMAIN
LARGELY CAPPED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WITH TIME
HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING/DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH THE
ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL
EVENTUALLY YIELD INITIATION OF CONVECTION.  INITIAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS -- LIKELY WITHIN
SEVERAL SEPARATE CLUSTERS FROM ERN MT SWD TO ERN CO.  FARTHER
SE...STORM REDEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR INVOF OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING IA CONVECTION AS A WEAK VORT MAX SHIFTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE INITIAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN A KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINAL/MULTICELL ORGANIZATION...THE
CONTINUED ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASINGLY STRONG SWLYS AT MID LEVELS.  AS THIS STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT OVERSPREADS A LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING THROUGH THE
EVENING...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
WELL-ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS.  INITIAL CELLULAR STORM MODES
SHOULD GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO LINES/BOWS IN SOME AREAS --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS ND WHERE A BOWING MCS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.
ALONG WITH ATTENDANT WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS ND...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CELLULAR
CONVECTION.  FARTHER S...MAIN RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL -- WITH THE ENTIRE ZONE OF GREATEST RISK TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..GOSS.. 07/27/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 271632
SWODY1
SPC AC 271630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR ERN MT AND INTO ND
AND PARTS OF NWRN/N CENTRAL SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. AND
SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LESS...BUT STILL PRESENT...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
AS WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
TODAY...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/ENERGETIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
NEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...IMPINGING AS IT DOES ON BACKGROUND CENTRAL U.S. RIDGING.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN MT ATTM IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN/SHIFT NNEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH TIME...WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES EWD AND INTO THE NRN -- AND EVENTUALLY
CENTRAL -- PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...N CENTRAL CONUS AND SWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
BACKGROUND RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS ACROSS THE PLAINS ATTM...AND
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO REMAIN
LARGELY CAPPED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WITH TIME
HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING/DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH THE
ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL
EVENTUALLY YIELD INITIATION OF CONVECTION.  INITIAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS -- LIKELY WITHIN
SEVERAL SEPARATE CLUSTERS FROM ERN MT SWD TO ERN CO.  FARTHER
SE...STORM REDEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR INVOF OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING IA CONVECTION AS A WEAK VORT MAX SHIFTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE INITIAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN A KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINAL/MULTICELL ORGANIZATION...THE
CONTINUED ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASINGLY STRONG SWLYS AT MID LEVELS.  AS THIS STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT OVERSPREADS A LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING THROUGH THE
EVENING...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
WELL-ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS.  INITIAL CELLULAR STORM MODES
SHOULD GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO LINES/BOWS IN SOME AREAS --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS ND WHERE A BOWING MCS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.
ALONG WITH ATTENDANT WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS ND...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CELLULAR
CONVECTION.  FARTHER S...MAIN RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL -- WITH THE ENTIRE ZONE OF GREATEST RISK TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..GOSS.. 07/27/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 271632
SWODY1
SPC AC 271630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR ERN MT AND INTO ND
AND PARTS OF NWRN/N CENTRAL SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. AND
SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LESS...BUT STILL PRESENT...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
AS WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
TODAY...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/ENERGETIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
NEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...IMPINGING AS IT DOES ON BACKGROUND CENTRAL U.S. RIDGING.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN MT ATTM IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN/SHIFT NNEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH TIME...WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES EWD AND INTO THE NRN -- AND EVENTUALLY
CENTRAL -- PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...N CENTRAL CONUS AND SWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
BACKGROUND RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS ACROSS THE PLAINS ATTM...AND
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO REMAIN
LARGELY CAPPED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WITH TIME
HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING/DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH THE
ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL
EVENTUALLY YIELD INITIATION OF CONVECTION.  INITIAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS -- LIKELY WITHIN
SEVERAL SEPARATE CLUSTERS FROM ERN MT SWD TO ERN CO.  FARTHER
SE...STORM REDEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR INVOF OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING IA CONVECTION AS A WEAK VORT MAX SHIFTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE INITIAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN A KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINAL/MULTICELL ORGANIZATION...THE
CONTINUED ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASINGLY STRONG SWLYS AT MID LEVELS.  AS THIS STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT OVERSPREADS A LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING THROUGH THE
EVENING...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
WELL-ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS.  INITIAL CELLULAR STORM MODES
SHOULD GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO LINES/BOWS IN SOME AREAS --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS ND WHERE A BOWING MCS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.
ALONG WITH ATTENDANT WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS ND...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CELLULAR
CONVECTION.  FARTHER S...MAIN RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL -- WITH THE ENTIRE ZONE OF GREATEST RISK TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..GOSS.. 07/27/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 271632
SWODY1
SPC AC 271630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR ERN MT AND INTO ND
AND PARTS OF NWRN/N CENTRAL SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. AND
SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LESS...BUT STILL PRESENT...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
AS WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SHIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE ERN U.S.
TODAY...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/ENERGETIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
NEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN W TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...IMPINGING AS IT DOES ON BACKGROUND CENTRAL U.S. RIDGING.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN MT ATTM IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN/SHIFT NNEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH TIME...WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES EWD AND INTO THE NRN -- AND EVENTUALLY
CENTRAL -- PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...N CENTRAL CONUS AND SWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
BACKGROUND RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS ACROSS THE PLAINS ATTM...AND
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO REMAIN
LARGELY CAPPED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WITH TIME
HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING/DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH THE
ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL
EVENTUALLY YIELD INITIATION OF CONVECTION.  INITIAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS -- LIKELY WITHIN
SEVERAL SEPARATE CLUSTERS FROM ERN MT SWD TO ERN CO.  FARTHER
SE...STORM REDEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR INVOF OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING IA CONVECTION AS A WEAK VORT MAX SHIFTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE INITIAL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN A KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINAL/MULTICELL ORGANIZATION...THE
CONTINUED ADVANCE OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASINGLY STRONG SWLYS AT MID LEVELS.  AS THIS STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT OVERSPREADS A LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING THROUGH THE
EVENING...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
WELL-ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS.  INITIAL CELLULAR STORM MODES
SHOULD GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO LINES/BOWS IN SOME AREAS --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS ND WHERE A BOWING MCS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.
ALONG WITH ATTENDANT WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS ND...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CELLULAR
CONVECTION.  FARTHER S...MAIN RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL -- WITH THE ENTIRE ZONE OF GREATEST RISK TO SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..GOSS.. 07/27/2015





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