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000
ACUS03 KWNS 230727
SWODY3
SPC AC 230726

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS THE
COASTAL SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LITTLE OR NO RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED THURSDAY.

...DISCUSSION...
AS AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN PERSISTS...THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL
FEATURES OF NOTE ON THURSDAY WILL BE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING
UPPER TROUGH/POLAR JET OVER THE WEST COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAK...THIS SCENARIO
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

EAST OF THE ROCKIES...MULTIPLE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOWS WILL
OVERSPREAD AREAS SUCH AS THE PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A MIDWEST-CENTERED UPPER RIDGE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS
WELL AS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST CONUS. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN A RELATIVE LACK OF
BUOYANCY/VERTICAL SHEAR.

..GUYER.. 09/23/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 230727
SWODY3
SPC AC 230726

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS THE
COASTAL SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LITTLE OR NO RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED THURSDAY.

...DISCUSSION...
AS AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN PERSISTS...THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL
FEATURES OF NOTE ON THURSDAY WILL BE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING
UPPER TROUGH/POLAR JET OVER THE WEST COAST AND NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAK...THIS SCENARIO
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

EAST OF THE ROCKIES...MULTIPLE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOWS WILL
OVERSPREAD AREAS SUCH AS THE PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A MIDWEST-CENTERED UPPER RIDGE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS
WELL AS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST CONUS. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN A RELATIVE LACK OF
BUOYANCY/VERTICAL SHEAR.

..GUYER.. 09/23/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 230555
SWODY1
SPC AC 230554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...THE NORTHWEST...AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A FEW
OF THE STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND A SECOND
REMAINS OFF THE PAC COAST...BROAD RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF COUNTRY THIS PERIOD.  WITHIN THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE
RIDGE...A WEAKENING VORT MAX IS PROGGED THE DRIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS...WHILE A SECOND MAKES SLOW EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE NRN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER
FEATURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS WITH RESPECT TO LOW-END SEVERE
RISK THIS PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WHILE A LEE TROUGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
WEAK/DIFFUSE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE WEST...THOUGH
THE PAC NW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AFFECTED WITH TIME BY A
DEEP/OCCLUDED OFFSHORE LOW.

...PORTIONS OF WRN KS/WRN NEB...
GRADUAL EWD PROGRESSION OF MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ASSOCIATED ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LEE
TROUGH INTO WRN PORTIONS KS/NEB...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS DIURNAL HEATING OF A MARGINALLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS 500 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE.  A
FEW STRONGER STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE ACROSS THIS
REGION...AIDED BY 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL
ORGANIZATION OR PERHAPS EVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION.  AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY FROM
WRN/CENTRAL NEB SWD ACROSS WRN KS...TO COVER AN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WINDOW OF LOCAL HAIL/WIND RISK.

..GOSS/COHEN.. 09/23/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 230555
SWODY1
SPC AC 230554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...THE NORTHWEST...AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A FEW
OF THE STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND A SECOND
REMAINS OFF THE PAC COAST...BROAD RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF COUNTRY THIS PERIOD.  WITHIN THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE
RIDGE...A WEAKENING VORT MAX IS PROGGED THE DRIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS...WHILE A SECOND MAKES SLOW EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE NRN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER
FEATURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS WITH RESPECT TO LOW-END SEVERE
RISK THIS PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WHILE A LEE TROUGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
WEAK/DIFFUSE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE WEST...THOUGH
THE PAC NW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AFFECTED WITH TIME BY A
DEEP/OCCLUDED OFFSHORE LOW.

...PORTIONS OF WRN KS/WRN NEB...
GRADUAL EWD PROGRESSION OF MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ASSOCIATED ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LEE
TROUGH INTO WRN PORTIONS KS/NEB...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS DIURNAL HEATING OF A MARGINALLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS 500 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE.  A
FEW STRONGER STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE ACROSS THIS
REGION...AIDED BY 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL
ORGANIZATION OR PERHAPS EVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION.  AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY FROM
WRN/CENTRAL NEB SWD ACROSS WRN KS...TO COVER AN AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WINDOW OF LOCAL HAIL/WIND RISK.

..GOSS/COHEN.. 09/23/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 230554
SWODY2
SPC AC 230553

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND COASTAL
SOUTHEAST STATES. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONGER WESTERLIES CONFINED TO THE CONUS WEST
COAST AND CANADA. AMID WEAKER WESTERLIES...MULTIPLE WEAK
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER AREAS SUCH AS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE...A
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH/POLAR JET WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND OVER
THE CONUS WEST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS...MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A
SEMI-PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND/OR FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN. ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER WEST TX...OVERALL FORCING
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /25 KT OR LESS/ WILL BE WEAK. EVEN
SO...RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE BUOYANCY /UP TO 1500
J PER KG MLCAPE/ MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WHILE ORGANIZED STORM MODES ARE NOT
EXPECTED...LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF PULSE-TYPE HAIL AND SOME STRONGER
WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE...SUCH THAT LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
APPEAR WARRANTED.

..GUYER.. 09/23/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 230554
SWODY2
SPC AC 230553

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND COASTAL
SOUTHEAST STATES. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONGER WESTERLIES CONFINED TO THE CONUS WEST
COAST AND CANADA. AMID WEAKER WESTERLIES...MULTIPLE WEAK
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER AREAS SUCH AS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE...A
SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH/POLAR JET WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND OVER
THE CONUS WEST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS...MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A
SEMI-PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND/OR FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN. ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER WEST TX...OVERALL FORCING
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /25 KT OR LESS/ WILL BE WEAK. EVEN
SO...RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE BUOYANCY /UP TO 1500
J PER KG MLCAPE/ MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WHILE ORGANIZED STORM MODES ARE NOT
EXPECTED...LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF PULSE-TYPE HAIL AND SOME STRONGER
WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE...SUCH THAT LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
APPEAR WARRANTED.

..GUYER.. 09/23/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 230059
SWODY1
SPC AC 230057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ONE OR TWO OF WHICH MAY REMAIN STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING OVER THE COLORADO HIGH
PLAINS.  AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY REACH
SEVERE LEVELS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO OVER THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
VICINITY.

...CO HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM WY SWD INTO NM/ERN
AZ...WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER THE NERN CO HIGH PLAINS.
 WITH A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE ABOVE A DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER...AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW...A FEW STRONGER CELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES AND CONVECTION WEAKENS.  GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
WEAKENING TREND...WILL REMOVE SLIGHT RISK AND MAINTAIN ONLY A 5%
RISK AREA THIS FORECAST.

...SERN PARTS OF SC AND GA...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC
AND SRN NC...SRN GA...AND THEN SWD ACROSS FL AND WWD ALONG THE GULF
COASTAL VICINITY INTO TX.  THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
DISORGANIZED -- WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STRONGER GUST...SEVERE RISK HAS LARGELY ENDED
OVER THIS REGION.

...ELSEWHERE...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PAC NW ATTM...MOST NUMEROUS OVER ERN OREGON JUST E OF A VORT MAX
APPROACHING THE COAST.  WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST BUT
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER CELLS...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT REMAINS W
OF THE AREA /I.E. NEARER THE VORT MAX/.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE
ONSET OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE RISK WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT BEST.

..GOSS.. 09/23/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 230059
SWODY1
SPC AC 230057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ONE OR TWO OF WHICH MAY REMAIN STRONG TO
SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING OVER THE COLORADO HIGH
PLAINS.  AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY REACH
SEVERE LEVELS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO OVER THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
VICINITY.

...CO HIGH PLAINS...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM WY SWD INTO NM/ERN
AZ...WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION OVER THE NERN CO HIGH PLAINS.
 WITH A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE ABOVE A DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER...AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW...A FEW STRONGER CELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINAL HAIL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES AND CONVECTION WEAKENS.  GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
WEAKENING TREND...WILL REMOVE SLIGHT RISK AND MAINTAIN ONLY A 5%
RISK AREA THIS FORECAST.

...SERN PARTS OF SC AND GA...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC
AND SRN NC...SRN GA...AND THEN SWD ACROSS FL AND WWD ALONG THE GULF
COASTAL VICINITY INTO TX.  THE STORMS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY
DISORGANIZED -- WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING.
ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STRONGER GUST...SEVERE RISK HAS LARGELY ENDED
OVER THIS REGION.

...ELSEWHERE...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PAC NW ATTM...MOST NUMEROUS OVER ERN OREGON JUST E OF A VORT MAX
APPROACHING THE COAST.  WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST BUT
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER CELLS...STRONGER FLOW ALOFT REMAINS W
OF THE AREA /I.E. NEARER THE VORT MAX/.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE
ONSET OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE RISK WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT BEST.

..GOSS.. 09/23/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 222048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222048
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-222245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222048Z - 222245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
A BRIEF TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AS CELLS INITIATE AND STRENGTHEN. WW
ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS AT 2030Z SHOWS A LEE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF
THE FRONT RANGE WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD
ACROSS ERN CO INTO FAR WRN NEB WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S F. SFC TEMPS IN NERN CO ARE NOW IN THE MID 70S F WITH
LOWER TO MID 80S REPORTED IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF SERN CO.
AS RESULT...SBCAPE IS ESTIMATED ABOVE 1000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
CO WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COMING OUT OF THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR WHICH DEVELOPS
STORMS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND MOVES THIS CONVECTION ONTO THE
NERN PLAINS OF CO IN THE 22Z TO 23Z TIMEFRAME. IN ADDITION...THE
LATEST WSR-88D VWP IN NERN CO SHOW SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH 25 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL. IN THE CASE A SUPERCELL CAN ORGANIZE...A BRIEF
TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF LINEAR ORGANIZATION IS FAVORED AS
IS SUGGESTED BY SOME SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS...THEN STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY BE THE GREATEST THREAT.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40820254 41070340 40940492 39900529 38270516 37850413
            38190246 39880225 40820254





000
ACUS11 KWNS 222048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222048
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-222245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222048Z - 222245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
A BRIEF TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AS CELLS INITIATE AND STRENGTHEN. WW
ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS AT 2030Z SHOWS A LEE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF
THE FRONT RANGE WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD
ACROSS ERN CO INTO FAR WRN NEB WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S F. SFC TEMPS IN NERN CO ARE NOW IN THE MID 70S F WITH
LOWER TO MID 80S REPORTED IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF SERN CO.
AS RESULT...SBCAPE IS ESTIMATED ABOVE 1000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
CO WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COMING OUT OF THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR WHICH DEVELOPS
STORMS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND MOVES THIS CONVECTION ONTO THE
NERN PLAINS OF CO IN THE 22Z TO 23Z TIMEFRAME. IN ADDITION...THE
LATEST WSR-88D VWP IN NERN CO SHOW SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH 25 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL. IN THE CASE A SUPERCELL CAN ORGANIZE...A BRIEF
TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF LINEAR ORGANIZATION IS FAVORED AS
IS SUGGESTED BY SOME SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS...THEN STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY BE THE GREATEST THREAT.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40820254 41070340 40940492 39900529 38270516 37850413
            38190246 39880225 40820254






000
ACUS11 KWNS 222048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222048
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-222245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 222048Z - 222245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
A BRIEF TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AS CELLS INITIATE AND STRENGTHEN. WW
ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS AT 2030Z SHOWS A LEE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF
THE FRONT RANGE WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD
ACROSS ERN CO INTO FAR WRN NEB WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S F. SFC TEMPS IN NERN CO ARE NOW IN THE MID 70S F WITH
LOWER TO MID 80S REPORTED IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY OF SERN CO.
AS RESULT...SBCAPE IS ESTIMATED ABOVE 1000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
CO WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COMING OUT OF THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR WHICH DEVELOPS
STORMS IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND MOVES THIS CONVECTION ONTO THE
NERN PLAINS OF CO IN THE 22Z TO 23Z TIMEFRAME. IN ADDITION...THE
LATEST WSR-88D VWP IN NERN CO SHOW SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE
LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH 25 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL. IN THE CASE A SUPERCELL CAN ORGANIZE...A BRIEF
TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF LINEAR ORGANIZATION IS FAVORED AS
IS SUGGESTED BY SOME SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS...THEN STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY BE THE GREATEST THREAT.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40820254 41070340 40940492 39900529 38270516 37850413
            38190246 39880225 40820254





000
ACUS01 KWNS 222001
SWODY1
SPC AC 221959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE CO HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...ARE FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
COLORADO HIGH PLAINS.  A FEW MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH
OR BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN.

UPGRADED PORTIONS OF THE CO HIGH PLAINS TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  THE ONLY OTHER MINOR CHANGE MADE IS TO
THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE OVER THE SERN STATES TO REFLECT THE
SWD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT.

...CO HIGH PLAINS...
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS DURING THE
1800-1940Z PERIOD SHOW A CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER ERN CO AMONGST
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OWING THEIR ORIGINS TO A
DEPARTING MCV OVER WRN NEB AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.  A MOIST AXIS
FROM NERN NM TO NEAR AKO IS DESTABILIZING AS THE RESULT OF SURFACE
HEATING.  A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW /30-40 KT/ SAMPLED BY
THE ERN CO VAD/VWP NETWORK IS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER WY AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS.  AN ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL THREAT APPEARS GREATER THAN EARLIER FORECAST...PROVIDED
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MOVE EWD INTO THE
PLAINS.  RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVELS COINCIDING WITH A
CLOCKWISE-CURVING HODOGRAPH MAY LOCALLY AUGMENT THE THREAT FOR A
SUPERCELL TORNADO AS WELL.

..SMITH.. 09/22/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH WILL PROGRESS SEWD AND
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE
CAROLINAS TOWARD 23/12Z. UPSTREAM FROM THESE DEVELOPMENTS...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD INTO
THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...EFFECTIVELY UNDERCUTTING THE MEAN LONG-WAVE
RIDGE IN PLACE WEST OF THE MS VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE
SERN U.S...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT AS
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ENHANCED BY THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MENTIONED ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...A LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE
SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

...SERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON...

A NE-SW-ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ONGOING AS OF MID
MORNING ALONG OR IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL
SC TO SERN AL. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY ALONG
WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL SUPPORT AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.
THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE AN
UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY AFTERNOON AMIDST A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING VERTICAL
SHEAR. AS SUCH...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MULTICELLS OR LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

THE MASS RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
A 30-35 KT SLY LLJ ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL
ENHANCE THE POLEWARD FLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE E OF THE LEE TROUGH.
CONSIDERABLE EARLY-DAY CLOUDINESS WILL SLOW THE DESTABILIZATION
PROCESS...BUT WHERE CLOUD BREAKS CAN OCCUR...THE INCREASING MOISTURE
MAY YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. INCREASED
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD BOLSTER
TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS AND CONVERGENCE IN THE LEE OF THE FRONT
RANGE TO FOSTER WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LATER TODAY.

MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE OWING TO A VERTICALLY
VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENING TO 35-45
KT. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.





000
ACUS02 KWNS 221710
SWODY2
SPC AC 221709

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A FEW OF THE STORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EWD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY 2
PERIOD.  ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER
THE CAROLINAS/GA WHILE A POWERFUL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE
NERN PACIFIC WILL INFLUENCE CONDITIONS OVER THE PACIFIC NW STATES.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LEE TROUGH FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NWD INTO
PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLD TO WIDELY
SCTD STORM ACTIVITY.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ALONG/SOUTH OF A REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS FL AND SOUTH TX.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
ELEVATED SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY MORNING OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
IN RESPONSE TO A SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE N-CNTRL
STATES.  DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING WILL SERVE TO DESTABILIZE THIS
AREA IN WAKE OF EARLY DAY CLOUDS/MOIST CONVECTION WITHIN A NARROW
MOISTURE TONGUE EXTENDING NWD INTO CNTRL NEB FROM WRN KS/OK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A NARROW
CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.  LOW-LEVEL SLYS VEERING TO 25 KT WLY
FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN 30-35
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  ISOLD STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP BY THE
21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME WITH A FEW STORMS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF A
LOCALIZED LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT BEFORE WEAKENING DURING
THE EVENING.

..SMITH.. 09/22/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 221710
SWODY2
SPC AC 221709

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A FEW OF THE STORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EWD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY 2
PERIOD.  ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER
THE CAROLINAS/GA WHILE A POWERFUL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE
NERN PACIFIC WILL INFLUENCE CONDITIONS OVER THE PACIFIC NW STATES.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LEE TROUGH FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NWD INTO
PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLD TO WIDELY
SCTD STORM ACTIVITY.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ALONG/SOUTH OF A REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS FL AND SOUTH TX.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
ELEVATED SCTD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TUESDAY MORNING OVER
PARTS OF THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
IN RESPONSE TO A SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE N-CNTRL
STATES.  DIABATIC SURFACE HEATING WILL SERVE TO DESTABILIZE THIS
AREA IN WAKE OF EARLY DAY CLOUDS/MOIST CONVECTION WITHIN A NARROW
MOISTURE TONGUE EXTENDING NWD INTO CNTRL NEB FROM WRN KS/OK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A NARROW
CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.  LOW-LEVEL SLYS VEERING TO 25 KT WLY
FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN 30-35
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  ISOLD STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP BY THE
21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME WITH A FEW STORMS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF A
LOCALIZED LARGE HAIL/SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT BEFORE WEAKENING DURING
THE EVENING.

..SMITH.. 09/22/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 221704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221703
SCZ000-GAZ000-221900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE GA AND SC COASTAL PLAIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221703Z - 221900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY
WINDS...A FEW STRONG...WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES
ALREADY AT OR ABOVE 1000 J PER KG WERE NOTED IN 16Z MESOANALYSIS.
POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
SBCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20-30 KT SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZATION AND
LONGEVITY OF ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS. BUT...LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
PW VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES IN COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE DCAPE COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER/MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
WHERE STORM/OUTFLOW MERGERS OCCUR. GIVEN THE LACK OF SUPPORT FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 09/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   31298124 31128157 31178232 31288266 31688307 31998304
            32258281 33028105 33248040 33397978 33337924 32897940
            32118046 31758083 31298124





000
ACUS11 KWNS 221704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221703
SCZ000-GAZ000-221900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE GA AND SC COASTAL PLAIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221703Z - 221900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY
WINDS...A FEW STRONG...WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES
ALREADY AT OR ABOVE 1000 J PER KG WERE NOTED IN 16Z MESOANALYSIS.
POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
SBCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20-30 KT SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZATION AND
LONGEVITY OF ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS. BUT...LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
PW VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES IN COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE DCAPE COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER/MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
WHERE STORM/OUTFLOW MERGERS OCCUR. GIVEN THE LACK OF SUPPORT FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 09/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   31298124 31128157 31178232 31288266 31688307 31998304
            32258281 33028105 33248040 33397978 33337924 32897940
            32118046 31758083 31298124






000
ACUS11 KWNS 221704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221703
SCZ000-GAZ000-221900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE GA AND SC COASTAL PLAIN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221703Z - 221900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. GUSTY
WINDS...A FEW STRONG...WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE VALUES
ALREADY AT OR ABOVE 1000 J PER KG WERE NOTED IN 16Z MESOANALYSIS.
POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
SBCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 20-30 KT SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZATION AND
LONGEVITY OF ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS. BUT...LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
PW VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES IN COMBINATION WITH ADEQUATE DCAPE COULD
ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER/MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
WHERE STORM/OUTFLOW MERGERS OCCUR. GIVEN THE LACK OF SUPPORT FOR A
MORE WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED THREAT...A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 09/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   31298124 31128157 31178232 31288266 31688307 31998304
            32258281 33028105 33248040 33397978 33337924 32897940
            32118046 31758083 31298124





000
ACUS01 KWNS 221624
SWODY1
SPC AC 221622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS TODAY OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...AS WELL AS
THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN.

...SYNOPSIS...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH WILL PROGRESS SEWD AND
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE
CAROLINAS TOWARD 23/12Z. UPSTREAM FROM THESE DEVELOPMENTS...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD INTO
THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...EFFECTIVELY UNDERCUTTING THE MEAN LONG-WAVE
RIDGE IN PLACE WEST OF THE MS VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE
SERN U.S...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT AS
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ENHANCED BY THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MENTIONED ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...A LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE
SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

...SERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON...

A NE-SW-ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ONGOING AS OF MID
MORNING ALONG OR IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL
SC TO SERN AL. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY ALONG
WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL SUPPORT AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.
THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE AN
UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY AFTERNOON AMIDST A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING VERTICAL
SHEAR. AS SUCH...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MULTICELLS OR LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

THE MASS RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
A 30-35 KT SLY LLJ ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL
ENHANCE THE POLEWARD FLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE E OF THE LEE TROUGH.
CONSIDERABLE EARLY-DAY CLOUDINESS WILL SLOW THE DESTABILIZATION
PROCESS...BUT WHERE CLOUD BREAKS CAN OCCUR...THE INCREASING MOISTURE
MAY YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. INCREASED
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD BOLSTER
TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS AND CONVERGENCE IN THE LEE OF THE FRONT
RANGE TO FOSTER WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LATER TODAY.

MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE OWING TO A VERTICALLY
VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENING TO 35-45
KT. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 09/22/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 221624
SWODY1
SPC AC 221622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS TODAY OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...AS WELL AS
THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN.

...SYNOPSIS...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY WHICH WILL PROGRESS SEWD AND
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE
CAROLINAS TOWARD 23/12Z. UPSTREAM FROM THESE DEVELOPMENTS...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD INTO
THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...EFFECTIVELY UNDERCUTTING THE MEAN LONG-WAVE
RIDGE IN PLACE WEST OF THE MS VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE
SERN U.S...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT AS
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ENHANCED BY THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MENTIONED ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...A LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE
SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

...SERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON...

A NE-SW-ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ONGOING AS OF MID
MORNING ALONG OR IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL
SC TO SERN AL. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY ALONG
WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL SUPPORT AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.
THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROMOTE AN
UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY AFTERNOON AMIDST A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING VERTICAL
SHEAR. AS SUCH...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MULTICELLS OR LINE
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

THE MASS RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
A 30-35 KT SLY LLJ ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL
ENHANCE THE POLEWARD FLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE E OF THE LEE TROUGH.
CONSIDERABLE EARLY-DAY CLOUDINESS WILL SLOW THE DESTABILIZATION
PROCESS...BUT WHERE CLOUD BREAKS CAN OCCUR...THE INCREASING MOISTURE
MAY YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. INCREASED
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD BOLSTER
TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS AND CONVERGENCE IN THE LEE OF THE FRONT
RANGE TO FOSTER WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LATER TODAY.

MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE OWING TO A VERTICALLY
VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENING TO 35-45
KT. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 09/22/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 221256
SWODY1
SPC AC 221254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS TODAY OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...AS WELL AS
THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN.

...SYNOPSIS...
SEASONALLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZES
MIDDLE-UPPER LEVELS TODAY.  EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC
FLOW THAT COVERS MUCH OF ERN NORTH AMERICA...THREE PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE EVIDENT TODAY...
1. PERTURBATION OVER SRN QUE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL EJECT
NEWD ACROSS LABRADOR OVERNIGHT AS...
2. UPSTREAM FEATURE NOW OVER FAR NRN ONT AMPLIFIES AND PIVOTS
SEWD/EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
3. TRAILING VORTICITY/SPEED MAX NOW OVER MID SOUTH MOVES SEWD THEN
DECELERATES OVER GA...BECOMING CLOSED 500-MB LOW BY 12Z.

FARTHER W...MEAN RIDGING OVER HIGH PLAINS AND NWWD ACROSS WRN CANADA
WILL BE PENETRATED BY PERTURBATION NOW DEVOLVING FROM CLOSED CYCLONE
TO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH OVER UT/SRN ID.  TROUGH SHOULD CROSS WY TODAY
AND REACH WRN PARTS OF SD/NEB OVERNIGHT.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM OFFSHORE MID-ATLC
REGION TO ERN NC...NRN GA...CENTRAL LA...AND W-CENTRAL TX.  FRONT IS
FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SERN STATES THROUGH PERIOD...HANGING UP
SOMEWHAT INVOF WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP TODAY OVER
SERN GA IN ADVANCE OF APCHG MID-UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER HIGH PLAINS.

...SRN ATLC COASTAL PLAIN...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTN IN
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...LIKELY TO
BE MOST CONCENTRATED BETWEEN FRONTAL-WAVE LOW-PRESSURE AREA AND
SC/GA SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES.  LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS POCKET OF
RELATIVELY MINIMIZED SFC DEW POINTS OVER SRN GA AND COASTAL SC THAT
MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY GIVEN
1. LACK OF STG SFC WINDS TO ADVECT GREATER MOISTURE FROM ELSEWHERE
AND
2. DIABATICALLY DRIVEN VERTICAL MIXING OF BOUNDARY LAYER.

THIS FACTOR WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG -- LOCALLY HIGHER.
STILL...BUOYANCY/HEATING AND LIFT NEAR AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...AMIDST
STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT THAT PRECEDES APCHG TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF
ANY HAIL AND STG GUSTS TO SFC.  LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE WELL-ORGANIZED SVR RISK...ALTHOUGH
STRONG UPPER WINDS WILL AID IN VENTILATING DEEP/PERSISTENT
CONVECTION.

...FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED MID-LATE AFTN OVER
FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGHER PLAINS TERRAIN NEAR LEE TROUGH.
CONVECTION WILL MOVE EWD TO SEWD...OFFERING GUSTS AND HAIL NEAR SVR
LIMITS AND CONDITIONAL/MRGL TORNADO RISK.  THREAT SHOULD WANE SOON
AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY.

PATCHY CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW PACE OF DIURNAL/DIABATIC
DESTABILIZATION TODAY.  NONETHELESS...ENOUGH HEATING IS EXPECTED TO
REMOVE MLCINH AND OVERCOME MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT...FOR
ESSENTIALLY UNINHIBITED MLCAPE IN 500-1000 J/KG RANGE.  LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE DURING LATE AFTN INTO 00-02Z TIME
FRAME...ALONG WITH 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES...BEFORE
STRENGTHENING/DEEPENING LAYER OF NEAR-SFC STATIC STABILITY TAKES
OVER.  THIS MAY SUPPORT A SUPERCELL OR TWO FOR A SHORT PERIOD.  MAIN
LIMITING FACTORS APPEAR TO BE SPARSE COVERAGE AND LACK OF MORE
ROBUST BUOYANCY.

..EDWARDS/MARSH.. 09/22/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 220727
SWODY3
SPC AC 220726

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC-SCALE REGIME WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONGER WESTERLIES RELEGATED TO THE CONUS WEST
COAST AND CANADA. MULTIPLE RELATIVELY WEAK...GENERALLY
DECAYING...MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER AREAS SUCH AS
THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
MEANWHILE...A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH/POLAR JET WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INLAND OVER THE CONUS WEST COAST.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS...MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A
SEMI-PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH OVERALL
FORCING AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /25 KT OR LESS/ WILL BE
WEAK...RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE BUOYANCY MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS. PULSE-TYPE HAIL CANNOT BE
CONCLUSIVELY RULED OUT ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION...BUT THE OVERALL
SCENARIO CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

..GUYER.. 09/22/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 220558
SWODY1
SPC AC 220556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR A STRONGER WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...WITH
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE ROCKIES.
 ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WITHIN A
BROADER AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT.

...SYNOPSIS...
EWD PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE U.S. IS
PROGGED FOR MONDAY...WITH TROUGHS OVER BOTH THE WRN AND ERN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY FLANKING A BROAD CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE.  WITHIN THE
LARGE-SCALE RIDGE...A WEAKENING VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
ROCKIES AND EMERGE INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SHIFTING GRADUALLY EWD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND WSWWD ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE ADVANCING OFF THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A LEE TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
FINALLY...A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS INTO/ACROSS
THE PAC NW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH.

...SRN PORTIONS OF SC AND GA...
DESTABILIZATION OF THE MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED
FROM COASTAL SC WSWWD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS AFTERNOON
HEATING BOOSTS SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.  AS A
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX -- EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE ERN U.S.
TROUGH -- SHIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...INCREASING/FOCUSED UVV ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY YIELD SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK...INCREASING MID-LEVEL SWLYS SHOULD YIELD AMPLE SHEAR FOR THE
EVOLUTION OF A FEW STRONGER CELLS -- AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW LOCAL/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO ADVECT NWD ACROSS THE SRN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AS BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SLY WITH TIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BROAD SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE PLAINS.  THIS MOISTENING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL YIELD MODEST DESTABILIZATION INVOF THE LEE TROUGH...ON THE
ORDER OF ROUGHLY 500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE.  AS THE WEAKENING VORT
MAX CROSSES WY/NRN CO...ISOLATED/AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
LIKELY -- INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT THEN SPREADING INTO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH TIME.

WITH A 35 KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PROGGED TO SPREAD ATOP THE
REGION ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE VORT MAX...KINEMATIC SUPPORT FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IS EVIDENT -- AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE
AREA TO COVER POSSIBLE/MARGINAL HAIL/WIND RISK.

..GOSS/COHEN.. 09/22/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 220558
SWODY1
SPC AC 220556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR A STRONGER WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE...WITH
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE ROCKIES.
 ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WITHIN A
BROADER AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT.

...SYNOPSIS...
EWD PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE U.S. IS
PROGGED FOR MONDAY...WITH TROUGHS OVER BOTH THE WRN AND ERN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY FLANKING A BROAD CENTRAL NOAM RIDGE.  WITHIN THE
LARGE-SCALE RIDGE...A WEAKENING VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
ROCKIES AND EMERGE INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SHIFTING GRADUALLY EWD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND WSWWD ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TO THE GULF
COASTAL REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE ADVANCING OFF THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  BEHIND THE
FRONT...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A LEE TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
FINALLY...A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS INTO/ACROSS
THE PAC NW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH.

...SRN PORTIONS OF SC AND GA...
DESTABILIZATION OF THE MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED
FROM COASTAL SC WSWWD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL REGION...AS AFTERNOON
HEATING BOOSTS SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.  AS A
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX -- EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE ERN U.S.
TROUGH -- SHIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...INCREASING/FOCUSED UVV ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY YIELD SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK...INCREASING MID-LEVEL SWLYS SHOULD YIELD AMPLE SHEAR FOR THE
EVOLUTION OF A FEW STRONGER CELLS -- AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW LOCAL/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO ADVECT NWD ACROSS THE SRN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AS BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SLY WITH TIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE BROAD SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE PLAINS.  THIS MOISTENING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL YIELD MODEST DESTABILIZATION INVOF THE LEE TROUGH...ON THE
ORDER OF ROUGHLY 500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE.  AS THE WEAKENING VORT
MAX CROSSES WY/NRN CO...ISOLATED/AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
LIKELY -- INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT THEN SPREADING INTO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH TIME.

WITH A 35 KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PROGGED TO SPREAD ATOP THE
REGION ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE VORT MAX...KINEMATIC SUPPORT FOR A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IS EVIDENT -- AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE
AREA TO COVER POSSIBLE/MARGINAL HAIL/WIND RISK.

..GOSS/COHEN.. 09/22/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 220554
SWODY2
SPC AC 220552

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A FEW OF THE STORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT UPPER-FLOW PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION
TUESDAY AS RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLIES PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS. A REMNANT UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AND WEAKEN OVER THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST BEGINNING EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE OTHER POTENTIALLY
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY IN
VICINITY OF A CENTRAL PLAINS LEE TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH OF A REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS FL AND SOUTH
TX.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK CYCLONIC WESTERLIES WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH AN
EASTWARD-SHIFTING SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE OVERALL FORCING WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK...SUFFICIENT HEATING/CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LEE TROUGH
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS.
ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MLCAPE COULD REACH/EXCEED
1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING IN VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL STRONGLY VEER WITH HEIGHT...MODEST LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND
SPEEDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KT. WITH SOME
SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/BRIEF SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED...MAINLY RELATED TO AN
EPISODIC/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL BETWEEN TUESDAY
MID-AFTERNOON AND MID-EVENING.

..GUYER.. 09/22/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 220554
SWODY2
SPC AC 220552

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A FEW OF THE STORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT UPPER-FLOW PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION
TUESDAY AS RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLIES PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS. A REMNANT UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AND WEAKEN OVER THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST BEGINNING EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE OTHER POTENTIALLY
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY IN
VICINITY OF A CENTRAL PLAINS LEE TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH OF A REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS FL AND SOUTH
TX.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK CYCLONIC WESTERLIES WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH AN
EASTWARD-SHIFTING SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE OVERALL FORCING WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK...SUFFICIENT HEATING/CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LEE TROUGH
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS.
ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MLCAPE COULD REACH/EXCEED
1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING IN VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL STRONGLY VEER WITH HEIGHT...MODEST LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND
SPEEDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KT. WITH SOME
SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/BRIEF SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED...MAINLY RELATED TO AN
EPISODIC/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL BETWEEN TUESDAY
MID-AFTERNOON AND MID-EVENING.

..GUYER.. 09/22/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 220049
SWODY1
SPC AC 220047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER
THIS EVENING IN AN ARCING ZONE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS STATES...AND
EASTWARD AS FAR AS NORTH TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA..

...DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE ERN AND SERN STATES.  HOWEVER...A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

IN THE WEST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR AND AHEAD OF
THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW NOW CROSSING NV...AND EWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS INVOF THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE ERN U.S. FRONT.  WHILE A
STRONGER CELL OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AREA...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED -- SUCH
THAT 5% RISK AREA WILL BE REMOVED THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 09/22/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 220049
SWODY1
SPC AC 220047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER
THIS EVENING IN AN ARCING ZONE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS STATES...AND
EASTWARD AS FAR AS NORTH TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA..

...DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE ERN AND SERN STATES.  HOWEVER...A
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

IN THE WEST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR AND AHEAD OF
THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW NOW CROSSING NV...AND EWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS INVOF THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE ERN U.S. FRONT.  WHILE A
STRONGER CELL OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AREA...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS QUITE LIMITED -- SUCH
THAT 5% RISK AREA WILL BE REMOVED THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 09/22/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 211936
SWODY1
SPC AC 211934

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
SEVERE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID SOUTH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...NRN AL...TN...KY...WV...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD SEWD ACROSS LOWER MS/OH/TN RIVER
VALLEYS AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS MAY STILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUNSET. FOR MORE INFORMATION
SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1754.

...NV INTO UT...
HEATING IS LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ACROSS NV INTO
SWRN UT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXIST ACROSS NRN AREAS THUS
HAVE SHUNTED THE 5% WIND PROBS FARTHER SWWD. VEERING AND INCREASING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT SHOULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG CELLS CAPABLE OF SMALL
HAIL AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755.

..JEWELL.. 09/21/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

...NORTHEAST...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PIVOT
EAST-NORTHEAST WITH THE GREATEST 500MB HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NY/VT THROUGH TONIGHT.
A BELT OF 60-75KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH...FROM OH...ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND THEN OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. A WEAKER AND WARMER DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND SKIRT SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE TONIGHT.

LATEST INDICATIONS PROVIDE NO COMPELLING EVIDENCE TO INCREASE SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY UPPER
TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. A LEADING BAND
OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST FROM NORTHEAST NY TO EASTERN WV PANHANDLE
APPEARS TO BE DECAYING AS IT BECOMES REMOVED FROM DEEP-LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO THE WEST. DESPITE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE
HEATING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS LEADING CONVECTIVE BAND...LATEST
GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN PA/NY SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST INTO A RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS IN THE
WAKE OF THE LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS/CLOUDS. DESPITE STRENGTHENING
DYNAMICS AND THE PRESENCE OF 40KT VERTICAL SHEAR...NEW CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE GIVEN LACK OF GREATER BUOYANCY. A FEW LINE
SEGMENTS/PERSISTENT STORMS MAY MOVE EAST AT UP TO 40KT AND PRODUCE
MINOR WIND DAMAGE SUCH AS DOWNED LIMBS/TREES BUT GREATER ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED.

...DELMARVA/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SOUTHWEST TO TN VALLEY...
THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD SOUTH FROM
THE OH RIVER VALLEY WITH A SMALLER SECONDARY HEIGHT FALL CENTER
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY BY MONDAY
MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO MODEST
DESTABILIZATION. STRONGER INSTABILITY /SBCAPE AROUND 1500 J PER KG/
IS FORECAST WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT ALONG THE FRONT BUT THESE
AREAS ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM STRONGER LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AND VERTICAL SHEAR NEEDED FOR MORE PERSISTENT/ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. WHILE STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
WIND DAMAGE MAY BE REALIZED JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ALONG THE EXTENSIVE
FRONTAL ZONE...FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...THE SPORADIC/LIMITED NATURE OF THIS
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT HIGHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
PROBABILITIES WITH THIS OUTLOOK.

...NV/UT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF UT TODAY
AMIDST RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE AND BROAD ZONE OF PERSISTENT LIFT ON
THE EASTERN FLANK OF SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW OVER NV. ADDITIONAL
DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR WITHIN/NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTER
OVER NV WHERE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG
SURFACE HEATING NOW UNDERWAY BENEATH RELATIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. POCKETS OF STRONGER UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY LEND
SUPPORT FOR A COUPLE OF MORE PERSISTENT FAST-MOVING CELLS/LINES OVER
UT... WHILE A DEEPER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER NV RESULTS IN AREAS
OF HIGHER DCAPE. BOTH REGIMES COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 211936
SWODY1
SPC AC 211934

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
SEVERE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID SOUTH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...NRN AL...TN...KY...WV...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD SEWD ACROSS LOWER MS/OH/TN RIVER
VALLEYS AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS MAY STILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUNSET. FOR MORE INFORMATION
SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1754.

...NV INTO UT...
HEATING IS LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ACROSS NV INTO
SWRN UT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXIST ACROSS NRN AREAS THUS
HAVE SHUNTED THE 5% WIND PROBS FARTHER SWWD. VEERING AND INCREASING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT SHOULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG CELLS CAPABLE OF SMALL
HAIL AND PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755.

..JEWELL.. 09/21/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

...NORTHEAST...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PIVOT
EAST-NORTHEAST WITH THE GREATEST 500MB HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NY/VT THROUGH TONIGHT.
A BELT OF 60-75KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH...FROM OH...ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND THEN OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. A WEAKER AND WARMER DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND SKIRT SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE TONIGHT.

LATEST INDICATIONS PROVIDE NO COMPELLING EVIDENCE TO INCREASE SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY UPPER
TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. A LEADING BAND
OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST FROM NORTHEAST NY TO EASTERN WV PANHANDLE
APPEARS TO BE DECAYING AS IT BECOMES REMOVED FROM DEEP-LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO THE WEST. DESPITE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE
HEATING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS LEADING CONVECTIVE BAND...LATEST
GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN PA/NY SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST INTO A RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS IN THE
WAKE OF THE LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS/CLOUDS. DESPITE STRENGTHENING
DYNAMICS AND THE PRESENCE OF 40KT VERTICAL SHEAR...NEW CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE GIVEN LACK OF GREATER BUOYANCY. A FEW LINE
SEGMENTS/PERSISTENT STORMS MAY MOVE EAST AT UP TO 40KT AND PRODUCE
MINOR WIND DAMAGE SUCH AS DOWNED LIMBS/TREES BUT GREATER ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED.

...DELMARVA/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SOUTHWEST TO TN VALLEY...
THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD SOUTH FROM
THE OH RIVER VALLEY WITH A SMALLER SECONDARY HEIGHT FALL CENTER
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY BY MONDAY
MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO MODEST
DESTABILIZATION. STRONGER INSTABILITY /SBCAPE AROUND 1500 J PER KG/
IS FORECAST WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT ALONG THE FRONT BUT THESE
AREAS ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM STRONGER LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AND VERTICAL SHEAR NEEDED FOR MORE PERSISTENT/ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. WHILE STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
WIND DAMAGE MAY BE REALIZED JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ALONG THE EXTENSIVE
FRONTAL ZONE...FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...THE SPORADIC/LIMITED NATURE OF THIS
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT HIGHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
PROBABILITIES WITH THIS OUTLOOK.

...NV/UT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF UT TODAY
AMIDST RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE AND BROAD ZONE OF PERSISTENT LIFT ON
THE EASTERN FLANK OF SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW OVER NV. ADDITIONAL
DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR WITHIN/NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTER
OVER NV WHERE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG
SURFACE HEATING NOW UNDERWAY BENEATH RELATIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. POCKETS OF STRONGER UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY LEND
SUPPORT FOR A COUPLE OF MORE PERSISTENT FAST-MOVING CELLS/LINES OVER
UT... WHILE A DEEPER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER NV RESULTS IN AREAS
OF HIGHER DCAPE. BOTH REGIMES COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.





000
ACUS11 KWNS 211915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211915
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-212045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NV INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
UT AND NORTHWEST AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211915Z - 212045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV INTO SOUTHWEST UT AND FAR
NORTHWEST AZ. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED AND A
WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING RESULTS IN WEAK
DESTABILIZATION. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE THIS AFTERNOON /MAINLY 70S/...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATE...INCREASING DCAPE AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AS CELLS QUICKLY MIGRATE TOWARD
THE N/NE. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MODEST AT BEST EXCEPT
NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER WHERE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESIDE.
THIS...COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 1000 J PER KG
MLCAPE/ SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT LONGEVITY/INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL
CELLS AND ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF AND ISOLATED. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

..LEITMAN/CARBIN.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...REV...

LAT...LON   36481403 36511342 36701302 37041297 37661271 38281289
            39401336 39901398 40141461 40391540 40511622 40451685
            40031737 39551762 39181779 38891782 38241752 37591696
            37171656 36851571 36661482 36481403





000
ACUS11 KWNS 211915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211915
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-212045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NV INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
UT AND NORTHWEST AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211915Z - 212045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV INTO SOUTHWEST UT AND FAR
NORTHWEST AZ. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED AND A
WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING RESULTS IN WEAK
DESTABILIZATION. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE THIS AFTERNOON /MAINLY 70S/...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATE...INCREASING DCAPE AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AS CELLS QUICKLY MIGRATE TOWARD
THE N/NE. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MODEST AT BEST EXCEPT
NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER WHERE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESIDE.
THIS...COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 1000 J PER KG
MLCAPE/ SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT LONGEVITY/INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL
CELLS AND ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF AND ISOLATED. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

..LEITMAN/CARBIN.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...REV...

LAT...LON   36481403 36511342 36701302 37041297 37661271 38281289
            39401336 39901398 40141461 40391540 40511622 40451685
            40031737 39551762 39181779 38891782 38241752 37591696
            37171656 36851571 36661482 36481403





000
ACUS11 KWNS 211915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211915
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-212045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NV INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
UT AND NORTHWEST AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211915Z - 212045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV INTO SOUTHWEST UT AND FAR
NORTHWEST AZ. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED AND A
WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING RESULTS IN WEAK
DESTABILIZATION. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE THIS AFTERNOON /MAINLY 70S/...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATE...INCREASING DCAPE AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AS CELLS QUICKLY MIGRATE TOWARD
THE N/NE. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MODEST AT BEST EXCEPT
NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER WHERE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESIDE.
THIS...COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 1000 J PER KG
MLCAPE/ SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT LONGEVITY/INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL
CELLS AND ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF AND ISOLATED. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

..LEITMAN/CARBIN.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...REV...

LAT...LON   36481403 36511342 36701302 37041297 37661271 38281289
            39401336 39901398 40141461 40391540 40511622 40451685
            40031737 39551762 39181779 38891782 38241752 37591696
            37171656 36851571 36661482 36481403






000
ACUS11 KWNS 211903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211902
WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-212100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1754
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WV...KY...TN...VA...AL...GA...NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211902Z - 212100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SOUTHWEST TO THE TN RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD. A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WINDS. ANTICIPATED STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WATCH ISSUANCE THRESHOLDS.

DISCUSSION...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
AXIS...IN COMBINATION WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WILL AID ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE OH VALLEY TO
TN VALLEY EAST TO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MOST
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE MCD DOMAIN....TN/AL...WHERE STRONGER HEATING OF A MOIST
AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AOB 1500 J/KG. WHILE WEAKER LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LACK OF STRONGER SHEAR MAY LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE AND/OR ORGANIZATION...SOME CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION MAY
EVOLVE NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES INTO EARLY EVENING WITH A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED LOCALLY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

FARTHER NORTHEAST IN THE MCD DOMAIN...AND OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED/WEAK BUT VERTICAL
SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY STRENGTHEN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A GENERAL
INCREASE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED HERE AS WELL. A
COUPLE OF THE MORE PERSISTENT CELLS/LINES MAY POSE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MUCH
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE AND A WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED.

..CARBIN/BUNTING.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...
OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   39318162 38478070 36868110 35058400 34468781 35258800
            36248731 37438483 39318162





000
ACUS11 KWNS 211903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211902
WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-212100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1754
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WV...KY...TN...VA...AL...GA...NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211902Z - 212100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SOUTHWEST TO THE TN RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD. A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WINDS. ANTICIPATED STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WATCH ISSUANCE THRESHOLDS.

DISCUSSION...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
AXIS...IN COMBINATION WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WILL AID ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE OH VALLEY TO
TN VALLEY EAST TO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MOST
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE MCD DOMAIN....TN/AL...WHERE STRONGER HEATING OF A MOIST
AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AOB 1500 J/KG. WHILE WEAKER LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LACK OF STRONGER SHEAR MAY LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE AND/OR ORGANIZATION...SOME CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION MAY
EVOLVE NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES INTO EARLY EVENING WITH A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED LOCALLY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

FARTHER NORTHEAST IN THE MCD DOMAIN...AND OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED/WEAK BUT VERTICAL
SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY STRENGTHEN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A GENERAL
INCREASE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED HERE AS WELL. A
COUPLE OF THE MORE PERSISTENT CELLS/LINES MAY POSE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MUCH
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE AND A WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED.

..CARBIN/BUNTING.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...
OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   39318162 38478070 36868110 35058400 34468781 35258800
            36248731 37438483 39318162





000
ACUS11 KWNS 211903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211902
WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-212100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1754
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WV...KY...TN...VA...AL...GA...NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211902Z - 212100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SOUTHWEST TO THE TN RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD. A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WINDS. ANTICIPATED STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WATCH ISSUANCE THRESHOLDS.

DISCUSSION...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
AXIS...IN COMBINATION WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WILL AID ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE OH VALLEY TO
TN VALLEY EAST TO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MOST
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE MCD DOMAIN....TN/AL...WHERE STRONGER HEATING OF A MOIST
AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AOB 1500 J/KG. WHILE WEAKER LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LACK OF STRONGER SHEAR MAY LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE AND/OR ORGANIZATION...SOME CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION MAY
EVOLVE NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES INTO EARLY EVENING WITH A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED LOCALLY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

FARTHER NORTHEAST IN THE MCD DOMAIN...AND OVER THE
APPALACHIANS...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED/WEAK BUT VERTICAL
SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY STRENGTHEN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A GENERAL
INCREASE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED HERE AS WELL. A
COUPLE OF THE MORE PERSISTENT CELLS/LINES MAY POSE A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MUCH
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE AND A WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED.

..CARBIN/BUNTING.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...
OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   39318162 38478070 36868110 35058400 34468781 35258800
            36248731 37438483 39318162






000
ACUS11 KWNS 211721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211720
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-211915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN OH...WRN PA/NY...NRN WV...FAR WRN
MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211720Z - 211915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY/RADAR TRENDS SHOW STRENGTHENING
UPDRAFTS/ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WESTERN NEW YORK SOUTHWARD
TO EASTERN OHIO/NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
EARLIER PASSAGE OF A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER BUT ALSO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA. STILL...DIURNAL HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF MOSTLY
LOWER 60S DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF SOMEWHAT
HIGHER INSTABILITY ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AREAL EXTENT TEMPERED BY
CLOUD COVER AND ABSENCE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES. AS HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEVELOP
EASTWARD OVER THE AREA...ONE OR MORE LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL
RESULT IN 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR ORIENTED LARGELY PARALLEL TO
THE SURFACE FRONT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR LOCALIZED
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST-MOVING STORMS AS THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED GIVEN
THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..BUNTING/CARBIN.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
CLE...

LAT...LON   42707896 42947878 43287838 43537797 43617698 43717643
            44217597 44527533 44197494 43237552 42197644 41527727
            39807878 39197940 39068009 39098089 39158162 39398214
            39848202 40868096 41878013 42197951 42707896





000
ACUS11 KWNS 211721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211720
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-211915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN OH...WRN PA/NY...NRN WV...FAR WRN
MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211720Z - 211915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY/RADAR TRENDS SHOW STRENGTHENING
UPDRAFTS/ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WESTERN NEW YORK SOUTHWARD
TO EASTERN OHIO/NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
EARLIER PASSAGE OF A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER BUT ALSO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA. STILL...DIURNAL HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF MOSTLY
LOWER 60S DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF SOMEWHAT
HIGHER INSTABILITY ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AREAL EXTENT TEMPERED BY
CLOUD COVER AND ABSENCE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES. AS HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEVELOP
EASTWARD OVER THE AREA...ONE OR MORE LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL
RESULT IN 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR ORIENTED LARGELY PARALLEL TO
THE SURFACE FRONT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR LOCALIZED
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST-MOVING STORMS AS THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED GIVEN
THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..BUNTING/CARBIN.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
CLE...

LAT...LON   42707896 42947878 43287838 43537797 43617698 43717643
            44217597 44527533 44197494 43237552 42197644 41527727
            39807878 39197940 39068009 39098089 39158162 39398214
            39848202 40868096 41878013 42197951 42707896





000
ACUS11 KWNS 211721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211720
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-211915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN OH...WRN PA/NY...NRN WV...FAR WRN
MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211720Z - 211915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY/RADAR TRENDS SHOW STRENGTHENING
UPDRAFTS/ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM WESTERN NEW YORK SOUTHWARD
TO EASTERN OHIO/NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
EARLIER PASSAGE OF A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER BUT ALSO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA. STILL...DIURNAL HEATING IN THE PRESENCE OF MOSTLY
LOWER 60S DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF SOMEWHAT
HIGHER INSTABILITY ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AREAL EXTENT TEMPERED BY
CLOUD COVER AND ABSENCE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES. AS HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER LOWER MICHIGAN DEVELOP
EASTWARD OVER THE AREA...ONE OR MORE LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL
RESULT IN 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR ORIENTED LARGELY PARALLEL TO
THE SURFACE FRONT. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR LOCALIZED
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST-MOVING STORMS AS THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED GIVEN
THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..BUNTING/CARBIN.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
CLE...

LAT...LON   42707896 42947878 43287838 43537797 43617698 43717643
            44217597 44527533 44197494 43237552 42197644 41527727
            39807878 39197940 39068009 39098089 39158162 39398214
            39848202 40868096 41878013 42197951 42707896






000
ACUS02 KWNS 211648
SWODY2
SPC AC 211646

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
MAINLY SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE...WITH GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE ROCKIES AS WELL AS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
FLORIDA. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE FROM SK SWD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NERN STATES
ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CANADA. BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC NW LATE
IN THE PERIOD AND INTO TUESDAY WITH RAIN AND WIND.

BENEATH THE RIDGE ITSELF WILL BE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED WLY
FLOW ALOFT AND SOME MOISTENING.

TO THE E...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT GA INTO THE
CAROLINAS AS IT BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH TO THE
N. THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE AREA WITH A FEW STRONG DAYTIME
STORMS.

...CO FRONT RANGE INTO FAR SERN WY...
WHILE A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE
PLAINS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...SLY FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE BY
AFTERNOON. A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST DUE TO
COOLING PROFILES ALOFT AND MARGINAL WIND PROFILES FOR LONG-LIVED
CELLULAR STORM MODE. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS BEFORE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES MARKEDLY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

...SERN SC INTO SERN GA...
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND
FROM SRN SD INTO SRN GA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
FLOW ALOFT. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK SUGGESTING
MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE BUT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED AND PERHAPS
QUITE VIGOROUS AS IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST
LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS MAY BE PRODUCED WITH THESE
STORMS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 09/21/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 211648
SWODY2
SPC AC 211646

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
MAINLY SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE...WITH GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE ROCKIES AS WELL AS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
FLORIDA. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE FROM SK SWD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NERN STATES
ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CANADA. BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC NW LATE
IN THE PERIOD AND INTO TUESDAY WITH RAIN AND WIND.

BENEATH THE RIDGE ITSELF WILL BE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED WLY
FLOW ALOFT AND SOME MOISTENING.

TO THE E...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT GA INTO THE
CAROLINAS AS IT BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH TO THE
N. THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE AREA WITH A FEW STRONG DAYTIME
STORMS.

...CO FRONT RANGE INTO FAR SERN WY...
WHILE A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE
PLAINS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...SLY FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE BY
AFTERNOON. A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST DUE TO
COOLING PROFILES ALOFT AND MARGINAL WIND PROFILES FOR LONG-LIVED
CELLULAR STORM MODE. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS BEFORE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES MARKEDLY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

...SERN SC INTO SERN GA...
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND
FROM SRN SD INTO SRN GA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
FLOW ALOFT. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK SUGGESTING
MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE BUT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED AND PERHAPS
QUITE VIGOROUS AS IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST
LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS MAY BE PRODUCED WITH THESE
STORMS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 09/21/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 211626
SWODY1
SPC AC 211625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
SEVERE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID SOUTH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...NORTHEAST...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PIVOT
EAST-NORTHEAST WITH THE GREATEST 500MB HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NY/VT THROUGH TONIGHT.
A BELT OF 60-75KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH...FROM OH...ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND THEN OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. A WEAKER AND WARMER DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND SKIRT SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE TONIGHT.

LATEST INDICATIONS PROVIDE NO COMPELLING EVIDENCE TO INCREASE SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY UPPER
TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. A LEADING BAND
OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST FROM NORTHEAST NY TO EASTERN WV PANHANDLE
APPEARS TO BE DECAYING AS IT BECOMES REMOVED FROM DEEP-LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO THE WEST. DESPITE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE
HEATING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS LEADING CONVECTIVE BAND...LATEST
GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN PA/NY SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST INTO A RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS IN THE
WAKE OF THE LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS/CLOUDS. DESPITE STRENGTHENING
DYNAMICS AND THE PRESENCE OF 40KT VERTICAL SHEAR...NEW CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE GIVEN LACK OF GREATER BUOYANCY. A FEW LINE
SEGMENTS/PERSISTENT STORMS MAY MOVE EAST AT UP TO 40KT AND PRODUCE
MINOR WIND DAMAGE SUCH AS DOWNED LIMBS/TREES BUT GREATER ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED.

...DELMARVA/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SOUTHWEST TO TN VALLEY...
THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD SOUTH FROM
THE OH RIVER VALLEY WITH A SMALLER SECONDARY HEIGHT FALL CENTER
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY BY MONDAY
MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO MODEST
DESTABILIZATION. STRONGER INSTABILITY /SBCAPE AROUND 1500 J PER KG/
IS FORECAST WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT ALONG THE FRONT BUT THESE
AREAS ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM STRONGER LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AND VERTICAL SHEAR NEEDED FOR MORE PERSISTENT/ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. WHILE STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
WIND DAMAGE MAY BE REALIZED JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ALONG THE EXTENSIVE
FRONTAL ZONE...FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...THE SPORADIC/LIMITED NATURE OF THIS
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT HIGHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
PROBABILITIES WITH THIS OUTLOOK.

...NV/UT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF UT TODAY
AMIDST RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE AND BROAD ZONE OF PERSISTENT LIFT ON
THE EASTERN FLANK OF SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW OVER NV. ADDITIONAL
DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR WITHIN/NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTER
OVER NV WHERE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG
SURFACE HEATING NOW UNDERWAY BENEATH RELATIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. POCKETS OF STRONGER UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY LEND
SUPPORT FOR A COUPLE OF MORE PERSISTENT FAST-MOVING CELLS/LINES OVER
UT... WHILE A DEEPER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER NV RESULTS IN AREAS
OF HIGHER DCAPE. BOTH REGIMES COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..CARBIN/LEITMAN.. 09/21/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 211626
SWODY1
SPC AC 211625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
SEVERE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID SOUTH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...NORTHEAST...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PIVOT
EAST-NORTHEAST WITH THE GREATEST 500MB HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NY/VT THROUGH TONIGHT.
A BELT OF 60-75KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH...FROM OH...ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND THEN OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. A WEAKER AND WARMER DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND SKIRT SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES LATE TONIGHT.

LATEST INDICATIONS PROVIDE NO COMPELLING EVIDENCE TO INCREASE SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY UPPER
TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. A LEADING BAND
OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST FROM NORTHEAST NY TO EASTERN WV PANHANDLE
APPEARS TO BE DECAYING AS IT BECOMES REMOVED FROM DEEP-LAYER FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO THE WEST. DESPITE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE
HEATING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS LEADING CONVECTIVE BAND...LATEST
GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS ACROSS WESTERN PA/NY SUPPORT THE IDEA OF
NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST INTO A RELATIVELY STABLE AIRMASS IN THE
WAKE OF THE LEADING BAND OF SHOWERS/CLOUDS. DESPITE STRENGTHENING
DYNAMICS AND THE PRESENCE OF 40KT VERTICAL SHEAR...NEW CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE GIVEN LACK OF GREATER BUOYANCY. A FEW LINE
SEGMENTS/PERSISTENT STORMS MAY MOVE EAST AT UP TO 40KT AND PRODUCE
MINOR WIND DAMAGE SUCH AS DOWNED LIMBS/TREES BUT GREATER ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED.

...DELMARVA/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SOUTHWEST TO TN VALLEY...
THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD SOUTH FROM
THE OH RIVER VALLEY WITH A SMALLER SECONDARY HEIGHT FALL CENTER
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/TN VALLEY BY MONDAY
MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO MODEST
DESTABILIZATION. STRONGER INSTABILITY /SBCAPE AROUND 1500 J PER KG/
IS FORECAST WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT ALONG THE FRONT BUT THESE
AREAS ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM STRONGER LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AND VERTICAL SHEAR NEEDED FOR MORE PERSISTENT/ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. WHILE STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
WIND DAMAGE MAY BE REALIZED JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ALONG THE EXTENSIVE
FRONTAL ZONE...FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...THE SPORADIC/LIMITED NATURE OF THIS
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT HIGHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
PROBABILITIES WITH THIS OUTLOOK.

...NV/UT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF UT TODAY
AMIDST RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE AND BROAD ZONE OF PERSISTENT LIFT ON
THE EASTERN FLANK OF SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW OVER NV. ADDITIONAL
DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR WITHIN/NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTER
OVER NV WHERE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG
SURFACE HEATING NOW UNDERWAY BENEATH RELATIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. POCKETS OF STRONGER UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY LEND
SUPPORT FOR A COUPLE OF MORE PERSISTENT FAST-MOVING CELLS/LINES OVER
UT... WHILE A DEEPER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER NV RESULTS IN AREAS
OF HIGHER DCAPE. BOTH REGIMES COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..CARBIN/LEITMAN.. 09/21/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 211255
SWODY1
SPC AC 211253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- A FEW WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
SEVERE LEVELS -- WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID SOUTH.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN...WITH ISOLATED AND MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...GENERAL AMPLIFICATION OF PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS FCST THROUGH PERIOD.  LEADING PORTION OF STG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW OVER LOWER MI AND LM IS FCST TO PIVOT EWD ACROSS ERN/SRN
ONT THROUGH PERIOD...REACHING SRN QUE AND HUDSON VALLEY REGION BY
12Z.  BY THAT TIME...TRAILING VORTICITY BANNER SHOULD EXTEND SWWD
ACROSS WV AND TN...CONTRIBUTING TO LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  LEADING/SRN-STREAM PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS -- WILL EJECT NEWD
ACROSS ATLC TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

FARTHER W...MID-UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NOW OVER CENTRAL CA AND ADJACENT
SIERRAS WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN NV...REACHING SRN ID/NERN
WY AND DEVOLVING INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH NEAR END OF PERIOD.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW OVER LH WITH COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...SWRN MO...SERN KS...NWRN OK AND ERN NM.  WARM
FRONT WAS DRAWN FROM LOW SSWWD OVER CENTRAL OH AND NERN/CENTRAL KY.
LOW SHOULD EJECT NEWD OVER ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT REACHING ERN PA...WRN VA...NRN MS...AND N TX BY 00Z.  BY
12Z...FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE MID ATLC AND REACH COASTAL
CAROLINAS...EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PORTIONS OF MS AND TX.

...NERN CONUS TO MID SOUTH...
ONE OR TWO NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTN...POSSIBLY INCLUDING EWD
SHIFT/EXTENSION OF CONVECTION NOW EVIDENT NEAR BUF-PKB LINE.  AT
LEAST ISOLATED GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS MAY OCCUR...AND POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SUB-SVR GUSTS...BELOW 50 KT...TO PRODUCE MINOR WIND
DAMAGE SUCH AS DOWNED LIMBS/TREES OVER SOME AREAS.

NARROW CORRIDOR OF MID-UPPER-60S SFC DEW POINTS IS EVIDENT BETWEEN
COLD AND WARM FRONTS ATTM...WITH LOWER 60S FARTHER E TO  WRN PARTS
OF NY/PA/WV.  THIS WILL ACT IN TANDEM WITH SPORADIC DIURNAL HEATING
UNDER VARIABLE CLOUD COVER TO YIELD 200-500 J/KG PREFRONTAL MLCAPE.
BUOYANCY WILL INCREASE WITH SWWD EXTENT TOWARD MID SOUTH AS
DEEP-LAYER FLOW DIMINISHES...AND FROM ABOUT OH RIVER NWD...MOST
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL FORCING ULTIMATELY WILL OUTPACE EWD SHIFT OF
RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOIST PLUME.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LARGELY PARALLEL TO COLD FRONT AND ANY PREFRONTAL
CONFLUENCE/CONVERGENCE LINES UPON WHICH TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP...INDICATING PREDOMINANTLY LINEAR MODE.  THOUGH MLCINH WILL
REMAIN WEAK...LACK OF MORE ROBUST PRECONVECTIVE SFC WINDS SHOULD
LIMIT CONVERGENCE.  THESE OFFSETTING FACTORS...AND LACK OF MORE
ROBUST INSTABILITY OVER NRN AREAS...PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL UPGRADE FOR
NOW.

...UT AND VICINITY...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH EVENING OVER AREAS
FROM SRN NV AND NRN AZ ACROSS MUCH OF UT.  ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE.

EXTENSIVE/ONGOING AREA OF CLOUDS/PRECIP AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL LEAD TO FRAGMENTED...MUTED AND SLOWLY PACED DIURNAL HEATING
ACROSS THIS AREA.  MLCAPE ULTIMATELY MAY REACH 300-800 J/KG IN
POCKETS BY MID-LATE AFTN...WHILE DEEP-LAYER FLOW INCREASE WITH APCH
OF CA VORTEX ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH CYCLONE WILL BE WEAKENING...RELATED
DCVA SHOULD CONTRIBUTE SUBTLE COOLING/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT IN
SUPPORT OF EPISODIC CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS/MARSH.. 09/21/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 211255
SWODY1
SPC AC 211253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- A FEW WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
SEVERE LEVELS -- WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID SOUTH.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT
BASIN...WITH ISOLATED AND MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...GENERAL AMPLIFICATION OF PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN IS FCST THROUGH PERIOD.  LEADING PORTION OF STG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW OVER LOWER MI AND LM IS FCST TO PIVOT EWD ACROSS ERN/SRN
ONT THROUGH PERIOD...REACHING SRN QUE AND HUDSON VALLEY REGION BY
12Z.  BY THAT TIME...TRAILING VORTICITY BANNER SHOULD EXTEND SWWD
ACROSS WV AND TN...CONTRIBUTING TO LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION.  LEADING/SRN-STREAM PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER COASTAL CAROLINAS -- WILL EJECT NEWD
ACROSS ATLC TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.

FARTHER W...MID-UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NOW OVER CENTRAL CA AND ADJACENT
SIERRAS WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN NV...REACHING SRN ID/NERN
WY AND DEVOLVING INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH NEAR END OF PERIOD.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW OVER LH WITH COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...SWRN MO...SERN KS...NWRN OK AND ERN NM.  WARM
FRONT WAS DRAWN FROM LOW SSWWD OVER CENTRAL OH AND NERN/CENTRAL KY.
LOW SHOULD EJECT NEWD OVER ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT REACHING ERN PA...WRN VA...NRN MS...AND N TX BY 00Z.  BY
12Z...FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE MID ATLC AND REACH COASTAL
CAROLINAS...EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PORTIONS OF MS AND TX.

...NERN CONUS TO MID SOUTH...
ONE OR TWO NARROW BANDS OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTN...POSSIBLY INCLUDING EWD
SHIFT/EXTENSION OF CONVECTION NOW EVIDENT NEAR BUF-PKB LINE.  AT
LEAST ISOLATED GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS MAY OCCUR...AND POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SUB-SVR GUSTS...BELOW 50 KT...TO PRODUCE MINOR WIND
DAMAGE SUCH AS DOWNED LIMBS/TREES OVER SOME AREAS.

NARROW CORRIDOR OF MID-UPPER-60S SFC DEW POINTS IS EVIDENT BETWEEN
COLD AND WARM FRONTS ATTM...WITH LOWER 60S FARTHER E TO  WRN PARTS
OF NY/PA/WV.  THIS WILL ACT IN TANDEM WITH SPORADIC DIURNAL HEATING
UNDER VARIABLE CLOUD COVER TO YIELD 200-500 J/KG PREFRONTAL MLCAPE.
BUOYANCY WILL INCREASE WITH SWWD EXTENT TOWARD MID SOUTH AS
DEEP-LAYER FLOW DIMINISHES...AND FROM ABOUT OH RIVER NWD...MOST
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL FORCING ULTIMATELY WILL OUTPACE EWD SHIFT OF
RICHEST LOW-LEVEL MOIST PLUME.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LARGELY PARALLEL TO COLD FRONT AND ANY PREFRONTAL
CONFLUENCE/CONVERGENCE LINES UPON WHICH TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP...INDICATING PREDOMINANTLY LINEAR MODE.  THOUGH MLCINH WILL
REMAIN WEAK...LACK OF MORE ROBUST PRECONVECTIVE SFC WINDS SHOULD
LIMIT CONVERGENCE.  THESE OFFSETTING FACTORS...AND LACK OF MORE
ROBUST INSTABILITY OVER NRN AREAS...PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL UPGRADE FOR
NOW.

...UT AND VICINITY...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH EVENING OVER AREAS
FROM SRN NV AND NRN AZ ACROSS MUCH OF UT.  ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE.

EXTENSIVE/ONGOING AREA OF CLOUDS/PRECIP AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL LEAD TO FRAGMENTED...MUTED AND SLOWLY PACED DIURNAL HEATING
ACROSS THIS AREA.  MLCAPE ULTIMATELY MAY REACH 300-800 J/KG IN
POCKETS BY MID-LATE AFTN...WHILE DEEP-LAYER FLOW INCREASE WITH APCH
OF CA VORTEX ALOFT.  ALTHOUGH CYCLONE WILL BE WEAKENING...RELATED
DCVA SHOULD CONTRIBUTE SUBTLE COOLING/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT IN
SUPPORT OF EPISODIC CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS/MARSH.. 09/21/2014





000
ACUS03 KWNS 210723
SWODY3
SPC AC 210722

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER
MIDWEST...AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT UPPER-FLOW PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION ON
TUESDAY AS RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLIES REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE CONUS.
A REMNANT UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BEGINNING EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS /SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/ DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY IN
VICINITY OF A CENTRAL PLAINS LEE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH OF A REMNANT FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS FL AND SOUTH TX.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD GENERALLY SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH RELATIVELY
WEAK CYCLONIC WESTERLIES COINCIDENT WITH A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH.
WHILE OVERALL FORCING WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SUFFICIENT
HEATING/CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LEE TROUGH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS WESTERN KS/SOUTHWEST
NEB AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MLCAPE COULD
REACH 500-1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING IN VICINITY OF THE
TROUGH...ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE 30 KT OR LESS.
WHILE A WEAK FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR REGIME CURRENTLY PRECLUDES A
SEVERE RISK...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES /RELATED TO HAIL POTENTIAL/
COULD BE WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

..GUYER.. 09/21/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 210723
SWODY3
SPC AC 210722

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER
MIDWEST...AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT UPPER-FLOW PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION ON
TUESDAY AS RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLIES REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE CONUS.
A REMNANT UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED
WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BEGINNING EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS /SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/ DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY IN
VICINITY OF A CENTRAL PLAINS LEE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH OF A REMNANT FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS FL AND SOUTH TX.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD GENERALLY SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH RELATIVELY
WEAK CYCLONIC WESTERLIES COINCIDENT WITH A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH.
WHILE OVERALL FORCING WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SUFFICIENT
HEATING/CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LEE TROUGH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED
SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS WESTERN KS/SOUTHWEST
NEB AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MLCAPE COULD
REACH 500-1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING IN VICINITY OF THE
TROUGH...ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE 30 KT OR LESS.
WHILE A WEAK FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR REGIME CURRENTLY PRECLUDES A
SEVERE RISK...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES /RELATED TO HAIL POTENTIAL/
COULD BE WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

..GUYER.. 09/21/2014





000
ACUS11 KWNS 210556
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210555
MIZ000-INZ000-210730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1752
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 210555Z - 210730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED TREE DAMAGE WITH
QLCS APPROACHING THE ERN SHORE OF LK MI.

DISCUSSION...MINOR INTENSIFICATION AND SOLIDIFICATION OF
HIGH-REFLECTIVITY CORES HAVE RECENTLY OCCURRED WITH THE LONG-LIVED
QLCS CROSSING SRN LK MI TO THE CHICAGOLAND AREA. 63-65 DEG F SURFACE
DEW POINTS PERSIST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...WITH MODIFIED
00Z GRB/APX RAOBS SUPPORTIVE OF MEAGER SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY
/LARGELY AOB 500 J/KG/ AMIDST MODEST INHIBITION. WITH VERY STRONG
SPEED SHEAR SAMPLED IN GRR VWP DATA /0-6 KM VALUES NEAR 70 KT/ AND
CURRENT LINEAR MOTION AROUND 40 KT...IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT 35-45
KT WIND GUSTS SHOULD ACCOMPANY EMBEDDED BULGING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE
LINE AS IT REACHES THE WRN LOWER MI LAKE SHORE.

..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON   43878675 44388664 44618644 44638620 44608594 44408545
            43808513 42938520 41808596 41608667 41778727 42568680
            43338660 43878675





000
ACUS11 KWNS 210556
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210555
MIZ000-INZ000-210730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1752
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 210555Z - 210730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED TREE DAMAGE WITH
QLCS APPROACHING THE ERN SHORE OF LK MI.

DISCUSSION...MINOR INTENSIFICATION AND SOLIDIFICATION OF
HIGH-REFLECTIVITY CORES HAVE RECENTLY OCCURRED WITH THE LONG-LIVED
QLCS CROSSING SRN LK MI TO THE CHICAGOLAND AREA. 63-65 DEG F SURFACE
DEW POINTS PERSIST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...WITH MODIFIED
00Z GRB/APX RAOBS SUPPORTIVE OF MEAGER SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY
/LARGELY AOB 500 J/KG/ AMIDST MODEST INHIBITION. WITH VERY STRONG
SPEED SHEAR SAMPLED IN GRR VWP DATA /0-6 KM VALUES NEAR 70 KT/ AND
CURRENT LINEAR MOTION AROUND 40 KT...IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT 35-45
KT WIND GUSTS SHOULD ACCOMPANY EMBEDDED BULGING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE
LINE AS IT REACHES THE WRN LOWER MI LAKE SHORE.

..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON   43878675 44388664 44618644 44638620 44608594 44408545
            43808513 42938520 41808596 41608667 41778727 42568680
            43338660 43878675






000
ACUS11 KWNS 210556
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210555
MIZ000-INZ000-210730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1752
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 210555Z - 210730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED TREE DAMAGE WITH
QLCS APPROACHING THE ERN SHORE OF LK MI.

DISCUSSION...MINOR INTENSIFICATION AND SOLIDIFICATION OF
HIGH-REFLECTIVITY CORES HAVE RECENTLY OCCURRED WITH THE LONG-LIVED
QLCS CROSSING SRN LK MI TO THE CHICAGOLAND AREA. 63-65 DEG F SURFACE
DEW POINTS PERSIST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...WITH MODIFIED
00Z GRB/APX RAOBS SUPPORTIVE OF MEAGER SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY
/LARGELY AOB 500 J/KG/ AMIDST MODEST INHIBITION. WITH VERY STRONG
SPEED SHEAR SAMPLED IN GRR VWP DATA /0-6 KM VALUES NEAR 70 KT/ AND
CURRENT LINEAR MOTION AROUND 40 KT...IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT 35-45
KT WIND GUSTS SHOULD ACCOMPANY EMBEDDED BULGING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE
LINE AS IT REACHES THE WRN LOWER MI LAKE SHORE.

..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

LAT...LON   43878675 44388664 44618644 44638620 44608594 44408545
            43808513 42938520 41808596 41608667 41778727 42568680
            43338660 43878675





000
ACUS02 KWNS 210545
SWODY2
SPC AC 210544

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ROCKIES...THE COASTAL
SOUTHEAST STATES AND GULF COAST REGION ON MONDAY. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN A SEMI-AMPLIFIED PATTERN...A MODESTLY PROGRESSIVE BELT OF
WESTERLIES WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS ON MONDAY. WITHIN THIS
REGIME...AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY TO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT.

ASIDE FROM THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES AND GULF COAST REGION AS IT
CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THESE REGIONS.

...FRONT RANGE/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/DPVA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A DEEPENING LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WHILE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAY BE TEMPERED
BY CLOUD COVER...MODEST DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRONGER
UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EASTERN
CO AND FAR SOUTHEAST WY/NEB PANHANDLE WHERE MLCAPE COULD EXCEED 500
J/KG. PROVIDED SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION...EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 30-40 KT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUSTAINED MULTICELLS CAPABLE
OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE CONTINUED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
ALLOW STORMS TO SPREAD INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANY ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIKELY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.

..GUYER.. 09/21/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 210509
SWODY1
SPC AC 210507

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- AND POSSIBLY A FEW MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS -- WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
VICINITY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE
TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST...WITH
ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL POSSIBLY EVOLVING ACROSS THE UTAH
VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE ERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION EXPANDS EWD/SEWD WITH TIME.
MEANWHILE...THE WRN U.S. WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING.  WITHIN THE BROADER RIDGE...A WEAKENING UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN VICINITY.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT -- TRAILING SWWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST
FROM A LOW INITIALLY OVER QUEBEC -- WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY
EWD/SEWD...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY TO REACH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
COASTS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH WEAK/DIFFUSE
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
SPREADING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.  WHILE THE RESULTING HINDRANCE OF
STRONGER HEATING IN MANY AREAS SHOULD LIMIT WARM-SECTOR
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL...SOME DIURNAL INCREASE/EXPANSION OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED -- AIDED BY RELATIVELY STRONG/CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT.  ATTM...IT STILL APPEARS THAT MODEST CAPE WILL LIMIT OVERALL
SEVERE RISK...AND THEREFORE -- WHILE LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE RISK IS
BEING EXPANDED WSWWD ACROSS THE TN/MID MS VALLEY REGION...SLIGHT
RISK UPGRADE WILL NOT BE INCLUDED THIS FORECAST.  SEVERE RISK SHOULD
PEAK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

...UT AND VICINITY...
WIDESPREAD/LARGELY SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN VICINITY
THROUGH THE BROADER-SCALE RIDGING.  WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION LIKELY
TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL AND FLOW ALOFT TO REMAIN
SIMILARLY MODEST...ANY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEVERE RISK SHOULD
REMAIN LOW-END AND ISOLATED.

..GOSS/COHEN.. 09/21/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 210509
SWODY1
SPC AC 210507

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- AND POSSIBLY A FEW MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS -- WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
VICINITY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE
TENNESSEE AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST...WITH
ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL POSSIBLY EVOLVING ACROSS THE UTAH
VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE ERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION EXPANDS EWD/SEWD WITH TIME.
MEANWHILE...THE WRN U.S. WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING.  WITHIN THE BROADER RIDGE...A WEAKENING UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN VICINITY.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT -- TRAILING SWWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST
FROM A LOW INITIALLY OVER QUEBEC -- WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY
EWD/SEWD...WITH THE BOUNDARY LIKELY TO REACH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
COASTS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH WEAK/DIFFUSE
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
SPREADING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.  WHILE THE RESULTING HINDRANCE OF
STRONGER HEATING IN MANY AREAS SHOULD LIMIT WARM-SECTOR
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL...SOME DIURNAL INCREASE/EXPANSION OF
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED -- AIDED BY RELATIVELY STRONG/CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT.  ATTM...IT STILL APPEARS THAT MODEST CAPE WILL LIMIT OVERALL
SEVERE RISK...AND THEREFORE -- WHILE LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE RISK IS
BEING EXPANDED WSWWD ACROSS THE TN/MID MS VALLEY REGION...SLIGHT
RISK UPGRADE WILL NOT BE INCLUDED THIS FORECAST.  SEVERE RISK SHOULD
PEAK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

...UT AND VICINITY...
WIDESPREAD/LARGELY SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING UPPER LOW SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN VICINITY
THROUGH THE BROADER-SCALE RIDGING.  WITH CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION LIKELY
TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL AND FLOW ALOFT TO REMAIN
SIMILARLY MODEST...ANY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SEVERE RISK SHOULD
REMAIN LOW-END AND ISOLATED.

..GOSS/COHEN.. 09/21/2014





000
ACUS11 KWNS 210135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210134
INZ000-ILZ000-210400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1751
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0834 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND ERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 210134Z - 210400Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES
OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL EXIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE AND INDIANAPOLIS VWPS INDICATE A
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL...ASSOCIATED
WITH A MODEST WAA PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLIER ROUND OF
CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED AREAS NEAR AND N OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A RECENT
UPTICK IN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CORES...LIKELY ROOTED ATOP THE
COOL DOME DEPOSITED BY EARLIER CONVECTION. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AND SUPPORTS A FURTHER
INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE 00Z ILX RAOB INDICATES
AMPLE BUOYANCY FOR INFLOW BASED TO THE W/SW /MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG
AT ILX/...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. AND...WITH AROUND 40 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR SAMPLED
BY THE IND VWP...A FEW SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...GROWING NOCTURNAL MLCINH WILL LIKELY
PREVENT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM OCCURRING.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   41168758 41498656 41428535 41188505 40618488 39698508
            39118655 39118830 40018823 41168758





000
ACUS11 KWNS 210135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210134
INZ000-ILZ000-210400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1751
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0834 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND ERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 210134Z - 210400Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES
OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL EXIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE AND INDIANAPOLIS VWPS INDICATE A
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL...ASSOCIATED
WITH A MODEST WAA PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLIER ROUND OF
CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED AREAS NEAR AND N OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A RECENT
UPTICK IN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CORES...LIKELY ROOTED ATOP THE
COOL DOME DEPOSITED BY EARLIER CONVECTION. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AND SUPPORTS A FURTHER
INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE 00Z ILX RAOB INDICATES
AMPLE BUOYANCY FOR INFLOW BASED TO THE W/SW /MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG
AT ILX/...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. AND...WITH AROUND 40 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR SAMPLED
BY THE IND VWP...A FEW SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...GROWING NOCTURNAL MLCINH WILL LIKELY
PREVENT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM OCCURRING.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   41168758 41498656 41428535 41188505 40618488 39698508
            39118655 39118830 40018823 41168758






000
ACUS11 KWNS 210135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210134
INZ000-ILZ000-210400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1751
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0834 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND ERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 210134Z - 210400Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES
OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL EXIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE AND INDIANAPOLIS VWPS INDICATE A
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL...ASSOCIATED
WITH A MODEST WAA PATTERN IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLIER ROUND OF
CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED AREAS NEAR AND N OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A RECENT
UPTICK IN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CORES...LIKELY ROOTED ATOP THE
COOL DOME DEPOSITED BY EARLIER CONVECTION. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AND SUPPORTS A FURTHER
INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE 00Z ILX RAOB INDICATES
AMPLE BUOYANCY FOR INFLOW BASED TO THE W/SW /MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG
AT ILX/...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS INTO THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. AND...WITH AROUND 40 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR SAMPLED
BY THE IND VWP...A FEW SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...GROWING NOCTURNAL MLCINH WILL LIKELY
PREVENT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM OCCURRING.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   41168758 41498656 41428535 41188505 40618488 39698508
            39118655 39118830 40018823 41168758





000
ACUS01 KWNS 210105
SWODY1
SPC AC 210103

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NWRN OH VICINITY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR SERN MN/NERN IA AND
SWRN WI...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN OHIO VICINITY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN VICINITY...AS WELL AS ACROSS
PARTS OF KANSAS -- WHERE RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING.  FINALLY...A STRONGER CELL OR TWO
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN UTAH.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...
A BAND OF STORMS CONTINUES MOVING OUT OF LOWER MI INTO SRN
ONTARIO...AND ACROSS INDIANA INTO NWRN OH.  INSTABILITY DIMINISHES
WITH EWD EXTENT...AND THUS EXPECT SEVERE RISK TO DIMINISH WITH TIME
AS STORMS SHIFT EWD.  IN THE MEAN TIME...ISOLATED RISK FOR
LOCAL/MARGINAL HAIL/WIND PERSISTS.

...NERN IA/SRN WI VICINITY...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY ESEWD
ACROSS WRN WI...FAR SERN MN...AND FAR NERN IA ATTM.  INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED OVER THIS AREA -- NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
COMPACT/SEWD-MOVING VORT MAX NOW OVER NRN MN.  HOWEVER...THE STRONG
/50 TO 70 KT/ NWLY JET STREAK ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS.  A LONG-LIVED STORM HAS MOVED ACROSS FAR SERN MN/FAR NERN
IA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS -- AND AN ADDITIONAL STRONGER CELL
OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT/LOCAL SEVERE RISK.

...KS AREA...
A CLUSTER OF SWD-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS
KS ATTM...NEAR AND S OF A WNW-ESE COLD FRONT BISECTING THE STATE.
WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE ACROSS THIS REGION...STORMS
MAY CONTINUE REDEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT -- BUT MODEST SHEAR
SUGGESTS ONLY LOW-END/ISOLATED SEVERE RISK.

...GREAT BASIN VICINITY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NV/UT/AZ...WITHIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING GRADUALLY ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN CA.  THOUGH MARGINAL SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE RISK...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
HAIL AND/OR WIND APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING.

..GOSS.. 09/21/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 210105
SWODY1
SPC AC 210103

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NWRN OH VICINITY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR SERN MN/NERN IA AND
SWRN WI...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN OHIO VICINITY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN VICINITY...AS WELL AS ACROSS
PARTS OF KANSAS -- WHERE RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING.  FINALLY...A STRONGER CELL OR TWO
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN UTAH.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...
A BAND OF STORMS CONTINUES MOVING OUT OF LOWER MI INTO SRN
ONTARIO...AND ACROSS INDIANA INTO NWRN OH.  INSTABILITY DIMINISHES
WITH EWD EXTENT...AND THUS EXPECT SEVERE RISK TO DIMINISH WITH TIME
AS STORMS SHIFT EWD.  IN THE MEAN TIME...ISOLATED RISK FOR
LOCAL/MARGINAL HAIL/WIND PERSISTS.

...NERN IA/SRN WI VICINITY...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY ESEWD
ACROSS WRN WI...FAR SERN MN...AND FAR NERN IA ATTM.  INSTABILITY
REMAINS LIMITED OVER THIS AREA -- NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
COMPACT/SEWD-MOVING VORT MAX NOW OVER NRN MN.  HOWEVER...THE STRONG
/50 TO 70 KT/ NWLY JET STREAK ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS.  A LONG-LIVED STORM HAS MOVED ACROSS FAR SERN MN/FAR NERN
IA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS -- AND AN ADDITIONAL STRONGER CELL
OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALONG
WITH ATTENDANT/LOCAL SEVERE RISK.

...KS AREA...
A CLUSTER OF SWD-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS
KS ATTM...NEAR AND S OF A WNW-ESE COLD FRONT BISECTING THE STATE.
WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE ACROSS THIS REGION...STORMS
MAY CONTINUE REDEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT -- BUT MODEST SHEAR
SUGGESTS ONLY LOW-END/ISOLATED SEVERE RISK.

...GREAT BASIN VICINITY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NV/UT/AZ...WITHIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW
MOVING GRADUALLY ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN CA.  THOUGH MARGINAL SHEAR
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE RISK...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
HAIL AND/OR WIND APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING.

..GOSS.. 09/21/2014





000
ACUS11 KWNS 210034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210033
CAZ000-210230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 210033Z - 210230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL CA
VALLEY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE ADVANCING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL CA...WITH A LOBE OF
IMPLIED LIFT INTERACTING WITH A REGIME OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT INVOF
THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS. THIS CONTINUES TO ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE SIERRA CREST AMIDST STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES. CAPPI DATA AT 7 AND 9 KM INDICATE OCCASIONALLY MORE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE CORES...PERHAPS AIDED BY 30-40 KT MID-LEVEL SLYS/SELYS IN
THE NERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. ASSOCIATED DEEP SHEAR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL. A MARGINALLY SVR
TSTM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH THE LACK OF MORE ROBUST
MOISTURE IN THE PBL IS TEMPERING BUOYANCY SUCH THAT A GREATER
SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT ANTICIPATED. REGARDLESS...A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY BE STEERED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL CA
VALLEY ESPECIALLY N OF FRESNO.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO...

LAT...LON   35641845 36821975 37422091 38462152 39072104 38781997
            35921759 35341760 35641845





000
ACUS11 KWNS 210034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210033
CAZ000-210230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 210033Z - 210230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL CA
VALLEY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE ADVANCING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL CA...WITH A LOBE OF
IMPLIED LIFT INTERACTING WITH A REGIME OF OROGRAPHIC ASCENT INVOF
THE SIERRA MOUNTAINS. THIS CONTINUES TO ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE SIERRA CREST AMIDST STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES. CAPPI DATA AT 7 AND 9 KM INDICATE OCCASIONALLY MORE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE CORES...PERHAPS AIDED BY 30-40 KT MID-LEVEL SLYS/SELYS IN
THE NERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. ASSOCIATED DEEP SHEAR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL. A MARGINALLY SVR
TSTM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH THE LACK OF MORE ROBUST
MOISTURE IN THE PBL IS TEMPERING BUOYANCY SUCH THAT A GREATER
SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT ANTICIPATED. REGARDLESS...A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY BE STEERED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL CA
VALLEY ESPECIALLY N OF FRESNO.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO...

LAT...LON   35641845 36821975 37422091 38462152 39072104 38781997
            35921759 35341760 35641845






000
ACUS11 KWNS 210026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210025
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-210130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1749
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...NERN IA...SWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506...

VALID 210025Z - 210130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WW506.

DISCUSSION...EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS
TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.  STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
DIGGING VORT WHERE A LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL IS NOW MOVING INTO NRN
HOWARD COUNTY IA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING QUICKLY SEWD AT ROUGHLY
40-45KT AND SHOULD TRACK ACROSS EXTREME NERN IA BEFORE MOVING INTO
SWRN WI...MOST LIKELY NEAR CRAWFORD COUNTY.  HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FAST-MOVING CONVECTION.

..DARROW.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42889458 44749288 44748961 42879138 42889458





000
ACUS11 KWNS 210026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210025
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-210130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1749
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...NERN IA...SWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506...

VALID 210025Z - 210130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WW506.

DISCUSSION...EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS
TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.  STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
DIGGING VORT WHERE A LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL IS NOW MOVING INTO NRN
HOWARD COUNTY IA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING QUICKLY SEWD AT ROUGHLY
40-45KT AND SHOULD TRACK ACROSS EXTREME NERN IA BEFORE MOVING INTO
SWRN WI...MOST LIKELY NEAR CRAWFORD COUNTY.  HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FAST-MOVING CONVECTION.

..DARROW.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42889458 44749288 44748961 42879138 42889458





000
ACUS11 KWNS 210015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210015
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-210115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1748
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0715 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/WRN OH...PORTIONS OF SERN LOWER MI...FAR ERN
INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 505...

VALID 210015Z - 210115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 505
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING VALID
PORTIONS OF WW 505...AND THE RISK FOR STRONG TSTMS MAY EXTEND
FARTHER S.

DISCUSSION...BANDS OF OCCASIONALLY BOWING CONVECTION AT THE LEADING
EDGE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CROSSING SERN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH
MAY SUPPORT A DMGG-WIND RISK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS MODERATE. HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A PROPENSITY
FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED AS IT ENCOUNTERS
A RELATIVELY DRIER/LESS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH THE SVR-TSTM
RISK LIKELY LESSENING AS THE STORMS SHIFT EWD ACROSS REMAINING VALID
PORTIONS OF WW 505. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO ADVANCE FROM
E-CNTRL INDIANA TO W-CNTRL OH WITH A RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..COHEN.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   40298508 41948343 43278310 43278246 41738297 41268239
            40318375 40298508





000
ACUS11 KWNS 210015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210015
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-210115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1748
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0715 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/WRN OH...PORTIONS OF SERN LOWER MI...FAR ERN
INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 505...

VALID 210015Z - 210115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 505
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING VALID
PORTIONS OF WW 505...AND THE RISK FOR STRONG TSTMS MAY EXTEND
FARTHER S.

DISCUSSION...BANDS OF OCCASIONALLY BOWING CONVECTION AT THE LEADING
EDGE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CROSSING SERN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH
MAY SUPPORT A DMGG-WIND RISK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS MODERATE. HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A PROPENSITY
FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED AS IT ENCOUNTERS
A RELATIVELY DRIER/LESS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH THE SVR-TSTM
RISK LIKELY LESSENING AS THE STORMS SHIFT EWD ACROSS REMAINING VALID
PORTIONS OF WW 505. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO ADVANCE FROM
E-CNTRL INDIANA TO W-CNTRL OH WITH A RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..COHEN.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   40298508 41948343 43278310 43278246 41738297 41268239
            40318375 40298508





000
ACUS11 KWNS 210015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210015
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-210115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1748
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0715 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/WRN OH...PORTIONS OF SERN LOWER MI...FAR ERN
INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 505...

VALID 210015Z - 210115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 505
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING VALID
PORTIONS OF WW 505...AND THE RISK FOR STRONG TSTMS MAY EXTEND
FARTHER S.

DISCUSSION...BANDS OF OCCASIONALLY BOWING CONVECTION AT THE LEADING
EDGE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN SHIELD CROSSING SERN LOWER MI AND NWRN OH
MAY SUPPORT A DMGG-WIND RISK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS MODERATE. HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST A PROPENSITY
FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED AS IT ENCOUNTERS
A RELATIVELY DRIER/LESS UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH THE SVR-TSTM
RISK LIKELY LESSENING AS THE STORMS SHIFT EWD ACROSS REMAINING VALID
PORTIONS OF WW 505. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO ADVANCE FROM
E-CNTRL INDIANA TO W-CNTRL OH WITH A RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..COHEN.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   40298508 41948343 43278310 43278246 41738297 41268239
            40318375 40298508






000
ACUS11 KWNS 202357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202356
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-210200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN MO...CNTRL/NRN/WRN IL...SERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 202356Z - 210200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MS VALLEY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...SFC OBS AND PLAN-VIEW DEPICTIONS OF VWP DATA INDICATE
WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...ENCOURAGING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE TOWERS PER VIS IMAGERY. SOME
OF THESE TOWERS APPEAR TO BE GLACIATING IN NRN MO TO CNTRL
IL...WHERE STRONGER BUOYANCY EXISTS OWING TO THE LACK OF ANTECEDENT
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND IN PROXIMITY TO RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F. WITH MLCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A STRONG
TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR TSTM OR TWO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
SUCH POTENTIAL WOULD BE AUGMENTED BY 40-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OFFERED BY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT WILL PRECLUDE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM EVOLVING.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   39159274 40059376 41699143 41588889 40898808 39658892
            39159274






000
ACUS11 KWNS 202357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202356
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-210200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN MO...CNTRL/NRN/WRN IL...SERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 202356Z - 210200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MS VALLEY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...SFC OBS AND PLAN-VIEW DEPICTIONS OF VWP DATA INDICATE
WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...ENCOURAGING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE TOWERS PER VIS IMAGERY. SOME
OF THESE TOWERS APPEAR TO BE GLACIATING IN NRN MO TO CNTRL
IL...WHERE STRONGER BUOYANCY EXISTS OWING TO THE LACK OF ANTECEDENT
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND IN PROXIMITY TO RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F. WITH MLCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A STRONG
TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR TSTM OR TWO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
SUCH POTENTIAL WOULD BE AUGMENTED BY 40-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OFFERED BY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT WILL PRECLUDE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM EVOLVING.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   39159274 40059376 41699143 41588889 40898808 39658892
            39159274





000
ACUS11 KWNS 202357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202356
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-210200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN MO...CNTRL/NRN/WRN IL...SERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 202356Z - 210200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MS VALLEY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...SFC OBS AND PLAN-VIEW DEPICTIONS OF VWP DATA INDICATE
WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...ENCOURAGING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE TOWERS PER VIS IMAGERY. SOME
OF THESE TOWERS APPEAR TO BE GLACIATING IN NRN MO TO CNTRL
IL...WHERE STRONGER BUOYANCY EXISTS OWING TO THE LACK OF ANTECEDENT
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND IN PROXIMITY TO RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F. WITH MLCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A STRONG
TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR TSTM OR TWO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
SUCH POTENTIAL WOULD BE AUGMENTED BY 40-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OFFERED BY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS.
HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT WILL PRECLUDE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM EVOLVING.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   39159274 40059376 41699143 41588889 40898808 39658892
            39159274





000
ACUS11 KWNS 202255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202255
MNZ000-NDZ000-210030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN ND AND WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 202255Z - 210030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL EXIST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A CORRIDOR OF INSOLATION-ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES IS DRIVING MARGINAL BUOYANCY IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS MANITOBA. THIS IS ENCOURAGING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SPREADING SEWD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVX VWP SAMPLES 30-40 KT
OF NWLY FLOW IN THE 1-4-KM LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT A FEW SUSTAINED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR.
A MARGINALLY SVR TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
STRONGER BUOYANCY WILL PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM
POTENTIAL. THE RISK FOR STRONG STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS
THE PBL EXPERIENCES AN INCREASE IN STATIC STABILITY.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...

LAT...LON   48939797 48939711 47939648 46959588 46689703 47779802
            48659832 48939797





000
ACUS11 KWNS 202255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202255
MNZ000-NDZ000-210030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN ND AND WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 202255Z - 210030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL EXIST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A CORRIDOR OF INSOLATION-ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES IS DRIVING MARGINAL BUOYANCY IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS MANITOBA. THIS IS ENCOURAGING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SPREADING SEWD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVX VWP SAMPLES 30-40 KT
OF NWLY FLOW IN THE 1-4-KM LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT A FEW SUSTAINED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR.
A MARGINALLY SVR TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
STRONGER BUOYANCY WILL PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM
POTENTIAL. THE RISK FOR STRONG STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS
THE PBL EXPERIENCES AN INCREASE IN STATIC STABILITY.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...

LAT...LON   48939797 48939711 47939648 46959588 46689703 47779802
            48659832 48939797






000
ACUS11 KWNS 202255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202255
MNZ000-NDZ000-210030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN ND AND WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 202255Z - 210030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TSTMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL EXIST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A CORRIDOR OF INSOLATION-ENHANCED TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES IS DRIVING MARGINAL BUOYANCY IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS MANITOBA. THIS IS ENCOURAGING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
SPREADING SEWD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVX VWP SAMPLES 30-40 KT
OF NWLY FLOW IN THE 1-4-KM LAYER...SUGGESTING THAT A FEW SUSTAINED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR.
A MARGINALLY SVR TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
STRONGER BUOYANCY WILL PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM
POTENTIAL. THE RISK FOR STRONG STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS
THE PBL EXPERIENCES AN INCREASE IN STATIC STABILITY.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...

LAT...LON   48939797 48939711 47939648 46959588 46689703 47779802
            48659832 48939797





000
ACUS11 KWNS 202223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202223
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-202330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1745
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MN...SWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 202223Z - 202330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON TO ACCOUNT
FOR FAST-MOVING CONVECTION THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN MN INTO SWRN
WI.

DISCUSSION...STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY
ORGANIZED ACROSS MN...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF DIGGING MID-LEVEL
VORT...ALONG A SURGING COLD FRONT. NUMEROUS MEASURED WIND GUSTS AOA
40KT ARE OBSERVED ALONG THIS LINE WITH 49KT RECENTLY MEASURED AT
KRWF.  THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING SEWD AT ROUGHLY 40-45KT AND WILL
SOON EXIT WATCH.  ADDITIONALLY...A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS HAVE
EVOLVED OVER BLUE EARTH AND LE SUEUR COUNTIES IN SRN MN.  THESE MORE
DISCRETE STRUCTURES SHOULD BE OVERTAKEN BY FRONTAL CONVECTION SOON.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH LARGE HAIL IS
EXPECTED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SUPERCELLS.

..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43989484 45079352 44349056 43099068 43029192 43989484





000
ACUS11 KWNS 202223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202223
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-202330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1745
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0523 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MN...SWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 202223Z - 202330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON TO ACCOUNT
FOR FAST-MOVING CONVECTION THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS SRN MN INTO SWRN
WI.

DISCUSSION...STRONGLY FORCED BAND OF CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY
ORGANIZED ACROSS MN...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF DIGGING MID-LEVEL
VORT...ALONG A SURGING COLD FRONT. NUMEROUS MEASURED WIND GUSTS AOA
40KT ARE OBSERVED ALONG THIS LINE WITH 49KT RECENTLY MEASURED AT
KRWF.  THIS ACTIVITY IS SPREADING SEWD AT ROUGHLY 40-45KT AND WILL
SOON EXIT WATCH.  ADDITIONALLY...A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS HAVE
EVOLVED OVER BLUE EARTH AND LE SUEUR COUNTIES IN SRN MN.  THESE MORE
DISCRETE STRUCTURES SHOULD BE OVERTAKEN BY FRONTAL CONVECTION SOON.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH LARGE HAIL IS
EXPECTED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SUPERCELLS.

..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43989484 45079352 44349056 43099068 43029192 43989484






000
ACUS11 KWNS 202219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202219
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-202315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0519 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN LOWER MI...NRN INDIANA...NERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504...

VALID 202219Z - 202315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING VALID
PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504.

DISCUSSION...MULTICELL CLUSTERS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MORE ORGANIZED
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM S-CNTRL LOWER MI SWWD
ACROSS NRN INDIANA INTO E-CNTRL IL. THIS ACTIVITY IS ADVANCING EWD
AT AROUND 40-50 KT...WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING DMGG WIND GUSTS. MODERATE WLY FLOW THROUGH THE CLOUD
LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS VIA
CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AMIDST 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR ERN PORTIONS OF REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW
504 DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A ROBUST
SVR-TSTM RISK IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY.

..COHEN.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   40748594 40448824 40648872 41128757 41778553 42128484
            41088486 40748594





000
ACUS11 KWNS 202219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202219
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-202315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0519 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN LOWER MI...NRN INDIANA...NERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504...

VALID 202219Z - 202315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING VALID
PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504.

DISCUSSION...MULTICELL CLUSTERS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MORE ORGANIZED
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM S-CNTRL LOWER MI SWWD
ACROSS NRN INDIANA INTO E-CNTRL IL. THIS ACTIVITY IS ADVANCING EWD
AT AROUND 40-50 KT...WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING DMGG WIND GUSTS. MODERATE WLY FLOW THROUGH THE CLOUD
LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS VIA
CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AMIDST 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR ERN PORTIONS OF REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW
504 DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A ROBUST
SVR-TSTM RISK IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY.

..COHEN.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   40748594 40448824 40648872 41128757 41778553 42128484
            41088486 40748594





000
ACUS11 KWNS 202219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202219
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-202315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0519 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN LOWER MI...NRN INDIANA...NERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504...

VALID 202219Z - 202315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SVR TSTMS CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING VALID
PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504.

DISCUSSION...MULTICELL CLUSTERS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A MORE ORGANIZED
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM S-CNTRL LOWER MI SWWD
ACROSS NRN INDIANA INTO E-CNTRL IL. THIS ACTIVITY IS ADVANCING EWD
AT AROUND 40-50 KT...WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING DMGG WIND GUSTS. MODERATE WLY FLOW THROUGH THE CLOUD
LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS VIA
CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AMIDST 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR ERN PORTIONS OF REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW
504 DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A ROBUST
SVR-TSTM RISK IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY.

..COHEN.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON   40748594 40448824 40648872 41128757 41778553 42128484
            41088486 40748594






000
ACUS11 KWNS 202200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202200
MIZ000-210000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202200Z - 210000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR SOME RISK FOR DMGG WIND
GUSTS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD
REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED AT THE LEADING EDGE
OF STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT CROSSING THE AREA PER RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CLOUD COVERAGE IN MANY AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY HAS STUNTED DIURNAL GAINS IN BUOYANCY...THOUGH POCKETS OF
INSOLATION HAVE LOCALLY STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT
THE RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTION APPROACHING THE THUMB OF MICHIGAN.
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE...AND 40 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR
SAMPLED BY THE DTX VWP...FORWARD-PROPAGATING MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH
AT LEAST ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE LACK OF
STRONGER BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD SVR-TSTM
RISK FROM EVOLVING...THOUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42888459 43948329 43788270 42968250 42358354 42508453
            42888459





000
ACUS11 KWNS 202200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202200
MIZ000-210000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202200Z - 210000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR SOME RISK FOR DMGG WIND
GUSTS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD
REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED AT THE LEADING EDGE
OF STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT CROSSING THE AREA PER RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CLOUD COVERAGE IN MANY AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY HAS STUNTED DIURNAL GAINS IN BUOYANCY...THOUGH POCKETS OF
INSOLATION HAVE LOCALLY STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT
THE RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTION APPROACHING THE THUMB OF MICHIGAN.
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE...AND 40 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR
SAMPLED BY THE DTX VWP...FORWARD-PROPAGATING MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH
AT LEAST ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE LACK OF
STRONGER BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD SVR-TSTM
RISK FROM EVOLVING...THOUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42888459 43948329 43788270 42968250 42358354 42508453
            42888459






000
ACUS11 KWNS 202200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202200
MIZ000-210000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202200Z - 210000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR SOME RISK FOR DMGG WIND
GUSTS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD
REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED AT THE LEADING EDGE
OF STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT CROSSING THE AREA PER RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CLOUD COVERAGE IN MANY AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY HAS STUNTED DIURNAL GAINS IN BUOYANCY...THOUGH POCKETS OF
INSOLATION HAVE LOCALLY STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT
THE RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTION APPROACHING THE THUMB OF MICHIGAN.
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE...AND 40 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR
SAMPLED BY THE DTX VWP...FORWARD-PROPAGATING MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH
AT LEAST ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE LACK OF
STRONGER BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD SVR-TSTM
RISK FROM EVOLVING...THOUGH THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...

LAT...LON   42888459 43948329 43788270 42968250 42358354 42508453
            42888459





000
ACUS11 KWNS 202150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202149
MOZ000-KSZ000-210015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN/SRN KS AND WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202149Z - 210015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THERE WILL EXIST SOME RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR
TSTMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IF A MORE ORGANIZED SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL
WERE TO EVOLVE...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...VIS SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE AGITATED CU ALONG A SFC
WIND-SHIFT AXIS ANALYZED FROM N OF THE KANSAS CITY AREA SWWD TOWARD
GARDEN CITY...WITH DEEPER CONVECTIVE PLUMES EVOLVING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NERN KS. THE AIR MASS S OF THE WIND-SHIFT AXIS IS CHARACTERIZED
BY MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY...AIDED BY RELATIVELY MOIST
CONDITIONS IN THE PBL -- ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E OF INTERSTATE 35
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70F. THE ICT AND
TWX VWPS SAMPLE 25-30 KT OF MID-LEVEL NLYS/NWLYS OFFERING SUFFICIENT
DEEP SHEAR FOR FORWARD PROPAGATING MULTICELL CLUSTERS SWD/SEWD INTO
SRN KS/WRN MO. WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ONLY
MODEST...MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2500 J/KG WILL BE CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING ROBUST UPDRAFT MASS FLUXES WITH SOME RISK FOR SVR
HAIL/WIND. IF COLD POOLS WERE TO AGGREGATE AND SUPPORT A MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...A GREATER-COVERAGE SVR-TSTM RISK
COULD EVOLVE -- AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SERN/S-CNTRL KS/FAR WRN MO. AS SUCH...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   37829973 38909760 39079527 38399398 37209481 37129883
            37829973





000
ACUS11 KWNS 202150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202149
MOZ000-KSZ000-210015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN/SRN KS AND WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202149Z - 210015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED ACROSS THE
REGION...AS THERE WILL EXIST SOME RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SVR
TSTMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IF A MORE ORGANIZED SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL
WERE TO EVOLVE...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...VIS SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE AGITATED CU ALONG A SFC
WIND-SHIFT AXIS ANALYZED FROM N OF THE KANSAS CITY AREA SWWD TOWARD
GARDEN CITY...WITH DEEPER CONVECTIVE PLUMES EVOLVING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NERN KS. THE AIR MASS S OF THE WIND-SHIFT AXIS IS CHARACTERIZED
BY MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY...AIDED BY RELATIVELY MOIST
CONDITIONS IN THE PBL -- ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E OF INTERSTATE 35
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO AROUND 70F. THE ICT AND
TWX VWPS SAMPLE 25-30 KT OF MID-LEVEL NLYS/NWLYS OFFERING SUFFICIENT
DEEP SHEAR FOR FORWARD PROPAGATING MULTICELL CLUSTERS SWD/SEWD INTO
SRN KS/WRN MO. WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ONLY
MODEST...MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2500 J/KG WILL BE CAPABLE OF
SUPPORTING ROBUST UPDRAFT MASS FLUXES WITH SOME RISK FOR SVR
HAIL/WIND. IF COLD POOLS WERE TO AGGREGATE AND SUPPORT A MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...A GREATER-COVERAGE SVR-TSTM RISK
COULD EVOLVE -- AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SERN/S-CNTRL KS/FAR WRN MO. AS SUCH...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   37829973 38909760 39079527 38399398 37209481 37129883
            37829973






000
ACUS11 KWNS 202123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202122
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-202315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0422 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...CNTRL INDIANA...NWRN OH...SERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202122Z - 202315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR THE RISK OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SVR TSTMS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING MULTICELL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FROM SWRN LOWER
MI SWWD INTO CNTRL IL CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD/ESEWD. THE ACTIVITY
WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO FORWARD PROPAGATE OUTSIDE OF ONGOING WW 504
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...INTO AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY
MARGINAL TO MODERATE BUOYANCY -- STRONGEST FROM CNTRL INDIANA
WWD/SWWD WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
PRESENCE OF 35-50 KT OF MID-LEVEL WLYS -- WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER PER VWPS -- SUGGESTS THAT THE ONGOING
CONVECTION AND ATTENDANT RISKS FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE
THE LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY MAY MITIGATE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR
RISK FROM EVOLVING...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39639078 40108854 40408676 40998492 42208458 42248341
            41178374 40208462 39388693 38989004 39639078





000
ACUS11 KWNS 202123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202122
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-202315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0422 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...CNTRL INDIANA...NWRN OH...SERN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 202122Z - 202315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR THE RISK OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SVR TSTMS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...ONGOING MULTICELL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FROM SWRN LOWER
MI SWWD INTO CNTRL IL CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD/ESEWD. THE ACTIVITY
WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO FORWARD PROPAGATE OUTSIDE OF ONGOING WW 504
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...INTO AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY
MARGINAL TO MODERATE BUOYANCY -- STRONGEST FROM CNTRL INDIANA
WWD/SWWD WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
PRESENCE OF 35-50 KT OF MID-LEVEL WLYS -- WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER PER VWPS -- SUGGESTS THAT THE ONGOING
CONVECTION AND ATTENDANT RISKS FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE
THE LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY MAY MITIGATE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR
RISK FROM EVOLVING...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39639078 40108854 40408676 40998492 42208458 42248341
            41178374 40208462 39388693 38989004 39639078





000
ACUS11 KWNS 202058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202057
MNZ000-WIZ000-SDZ000-202230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MN AND EXTREME NERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503...

VALID 202057Z - 202230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
OCCASIONAL HAIL IS CONTINUING WITHIN WW 503 ACROSS PARTS OF
MINNESOTA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  THE PRIMARY RISK
APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HRS.

DISCUSSION...A LOW-TOPPED LINE OF STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN
EXTENDING SWD INTO SWRN MN HAS BEEN MOVING EWD/SEWD AT 40-50
KT...WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHO STRUCTURES EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY.
STRONGER STORMS ARE NOTED OVER STEARNS...KANDIYOHI AND CHIPPEWA
CNTYS IN MN...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT NOW EXTENDING SWD ACROSS RENVILLE
CNTY.  SOME ROTATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE STORM MOVING INTO
KANDIYOHI CNTY SUGGESTING ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF FUNNEL OR TORNADO.

..WEISS.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   45339678 45499602 45409549 46219498 47009458 47859474
            47779306 46059257 44559291 44199319 44139455 44389579
            45339678





000
ACUS11 KWNS 202058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202057
MNZ000-WIZ000-SDZ000-202230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MN AND EXTREME NERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503...

VALID 202057Z - 202230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
OCCASIONAL HAIL IS CONTINUING WITHIN WW 503 ACROSS PARTS OF
MINNESOTA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  THE PRIMARY RISK
APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HRS.

DISCUSSION...A LOW-TOPPED LINE OF STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN
EXTENDING SWD INTO SWRN MN HAS BEEN MOVING EWD/SEWD AT 40-50
KT...WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHO STRUCTURES EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY.
STRONGER STORMS ARE NOTED OVER STEARNS...KANDIYOHI AND CHIPPEWA
CNTYS IN MN...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT NOW EXTENDING SWD ACROSS RENVILLE
CNTY.  SOME ROTATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE STORM MOVING INTO
KANDIYOHI CNTY SUGGESTING ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF FUNNEL OR TORNADO.

..WEISS.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   45339678 45499602 45409549 46219498 47009458 47859474
            47779306 46059257 44559291 44199319 44139455 44389579
            45339678





000
ACUS11 KWNS 202058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202057
MNZ000-WIZ000-SDZ000-202230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MN AND EXTREME NERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503...

VALID 202057Z - 202230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
OCCASIONAL HAIL IS CONTINUING WITHIN WW 503 ACROSS PARTS OF
MINNESOTA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  THE PRIMARY RISK
APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HRS.

DISCUSSION...A LOW-TOPPED LINE OF STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN
EXTENDING SWD INTO SWRN MN HAS BEEN MOVING EWD/SEWD AT 40-50
KT...WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHO STRUCTURES EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY.
STRONGER STORMS ARE NOTED OVER STEARNS...KANDIYOHI AND CHIPPEWA
CNTYS IN MN...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT NOW EXTENDING SWD ACROSS RENVILLE
CNTY.  SOME ROTATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE STORM MOVING INTO
KANDIYOHI CNTY SUGGESTING ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF FUNNEL OR TORNADO.

..WEISS.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   45339678 45499602 45409549 46219498 47009458 47859474
            47779306 46059257 44559291 44199319 44139455 44389579
            45339678






000
ACUS11 KWNS 202040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202040
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-202315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NV...SWRN UT AND NWRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 202040Z - 202315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY WITH A
FEW PRODUCING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PRODUCING LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.00 INCH. STRONG HEATING BENEATH COOL
PROFILES ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW AND UPSLOPE ON S FACES IS HELPING
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THE MAIN ZONE OF
STORMS EXTENDS FROM CNTRL NV SEWD ACROSS SWRN UT AND NWRN AZ WITHIN
THE INSTABILITY AXIS. OTHER STORMS WERE INCREASING ALONG THE CA/NV
BORDER...AND THESE SHOULD EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE NWD ACROSS NV WITH
TIME WITH SOME WIND THREAT GIVEN A DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN
PLACE. IN GENERAL...MARGINAL HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT
GIVEN CELLULAR STORM MODE AS A RESULT OF FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

..JEWELL/CARBIN.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN...REV...

LAT...LON   36021638 37411837 39161931 40401881 40761682 40431572
            39431391 38101266 36871235 35701208 35531267 35281439
            35461509 36021638





000
ACUS11 KWNS 202040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202040
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-202315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NV...SWRN UT AND NWRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 202040Z - 202315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY WITH A
FEW PRODUCING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PRODUCING LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.00 INCH. STRONG HEATING BENEATH COOL
PROFILES ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW AND UPSLOPE ON S FACES IS HELPING
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THE MAIN ZONE OF
STORMS EXTENDS FROM CNTRL NV SEWD ACROSS SWRN UT AND NWRN AZ WITHIN
THE INSTABILITY AXIS. OTHER STORMS WERE INCREASING ALONG THE CA/NV
BORDER...AND THESE SHOULD EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE NWD ACROSS NV WITH
TIME WITH SOME WIND THREAT GIVEN A DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN
PLACE. IN GENERAL...MARGINAL HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT
GIVEN CELLULAR STORM MODE AS A RESULT OF FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

..JEWELL/CARBIN.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN...REV...

LAT...LON   36021638 37411837 39161931 40401881 40761682 40431572
            39431391 38101266 36871235 35701208 35531267 35281439
            35461509 36021638





000
ACUS11 KWNS 202040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202040
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-202315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NV...SWRN UT AND NWRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 202040Z - 202315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TODAY WITH A
FEW PRODUCING SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PRODUCING LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1.00 INCH. STRONG HEATING BENEATH COOL
PROFILES ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW AND UPSLOPE ON S FACES IS HELPING
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THE MAIN ZONE OF
STORMS EXTENDS FROM CNTRL NV SEWD ACROSS SWRN UT AND NWRN AZ WITHIN
THE INSTABILITY AXIS. OTHER STORMS WERE INCREASING ALONG THE CA/NV
BORDER...AND THESE SHOULD EVENTUALLY PROPAGATE NWD ACROSS NV WITH
TIME WITH SOME WIND THREAT GIVEN A DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN
PLACE. IN GENERAL...MARGINAL HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT
GIVEN CELLULAR STORM MODE AS A RESULT OF FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

..JEWELL/CARBIN.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN...REV...

LAT...LON   36021638 37411837 39161931 40401881 40761682 40431572
            39431391 38101266 36871235 35701208 35531267 35281439
            35461509 36021638






000
ACUS01 KWNS 201956
SWODY1
SPC AC 201955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST SD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHEAST MO INTO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE MOST PROBABLE INTO THE
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...AS WELL AS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  A MARGINAL THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND
WESTERN UTAH...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS.

...FAR NORTHEAST SD AND MN THROUGH THIS EVENING...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E/SE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MN AND FAR NORTHEAST
SD. STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE 30
PERCENT WIND AREA WAS SHRUNK AND SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A BIT WHERE
BETTER SFC HEATING IS OCCURRING AND STORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LINE APPEAR TO BE MORE ROBUST...POSING A THREAT FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS THAN FURTHER NORTH. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 01Z.

...NORTHEAST MO INTO NORTHERN IL/LOWER MI...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504
COVERS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN IND AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MI UNTIL 01Z. REF MCD 1738 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...NE KS...

A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CONTINUES TO FESTER OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF EARLIER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF TOPEKA. WHILE THE AIRMASS IS
STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR AND SFC MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...LACKLUSTER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT COMPARED TO FURTHER NORTH OVER MN MAY
BE LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL. ANY GREATER ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
CONDITIONAL AND DEPENDENT ON UPSCALE GROWTH/COLD POOL GENERATION.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT
RISK AT THIS TIME.

...GREAT BASIN...

NO CHANGES MADE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SOME
MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

..LEITMAN.. 09/20/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

...EASTERN DAKOTAS ACROSS MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
A POTENT AND COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA WILL TRACK QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM ND AND
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST INDICATIONS
SUPPORT AT LEAST AN 80KT 500MB JET AIDING IN THE RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF THIS IMPULSE ACROSS MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONGLY FORCED DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITHIN/BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE MID/UPPER JET WILL BE REALIZED ALONG A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/WIND-SHIFT THAT IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM ND/MN
BORDER TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WI THROUGH EVENING.
DESPITE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SURGE
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S F...THE
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING/LIFT WILL COINCIDE PREFERENTIALLY WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LOW-TOPPED
LINEAR CONVECTION...AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
ACROSS WESTERN MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN INTENSITY OF MESO-BETA
SCALE FORCING...HIGH RES MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN THE
EVOLUTION OF A LINEAR MCS MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WITH LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING NEARLY CLOUDLESS CONDITIONS FROM
EASTERN DAKOTAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT SUFFICIENT HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STORMS MOVE OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAIL UP
TO AN INCH ALSO APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE MORE
ROBUST UPDRAFTS OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

...NORTHEAST MO/EASTERN IA TO SOUTHERN WI/NRN IL/IND AND LOWER MI...

SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS REGARDING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION ACROSS THESE AREAS COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH.
ISOLATED...MOSTLY WEAK...CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE LEADING
FRONTAL WIND-SHIFT ACROSS PARTS OF IA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEB THIS
MORNING. CI/DEBRIS CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WERE THINNING AND
THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. AS WEAK INHIBITION IS OVERCOME EXPECT MORE ROBUST
STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED WEAK
CONFLUENCE ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH 1) LEADING FRONT...AND 2)
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM NORTHERN MO TO
SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL. MODEST TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY
/SBCAPE 2000-2500 J PER KG/ IS FORECAST TO EXIST NEAR/AHEAD OF THE
INCREASE CONVECTION OVER MO/IL...WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN CAPE TO
UNDER 1000 J PER KG WITH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT INTO LOWER MI.
GREATEST SUPPORTIVE JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING IS
LIKELY TO EVOLVE FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE KS/MO BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND SPORADIC LARGE HAIL. A COUPLE
OF SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR A TORNADO IF
STORMS CAN RETAIN DISCRETE CHARACTER AND ENCOUNTER LOCALLY ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR ANY LAKE BREEZES...OR RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES.
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABLE.

...GREAT BASIN...
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD OVER NV THROUGH TONIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL BE
SPURRED/SUSTAINED BY A SLOW INCREASE IN BOTH MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS
AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AS DEEP-LAYER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS EASTWARD
FROM CA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR MORE ROBUST STORMS BUT
DEEPENING/WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL DEVELOP WITH NEARLY
DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES EVOLVING COINCIDENT WITH GENERALLY WEAK
MLCAPE AOB 500 J PER KG. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE MODEST
FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS...SUFFICIENT AND STRENGTHENING FLOW
THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...IN COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASE
IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT....SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST
STORM ORGANIZATION INTO THIS EVENING WITH LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND AND
HAIL POSSIBLE.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 201956
SWODY1
SPC AC 201955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST SD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHEAST MO INTO SOUTHERN
LOWER MI...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ARE MOST PROBABLE INTO THE
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...AS WELL AS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  A MARGINAL THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND
WESTERN UTAH...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS.

...FAR NORTHEAST SD AND MN THROUGH THIS EVENING...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E/SE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MN AND FAR NORTHEAST
SD. STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE 30
PERCENT WIND AREA WAS SHRUNK AND SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A BIT WHERE
BETTER SFC HEATING IS OCCURRING AND STORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE LINE APPEAR TO BE MORE ROBUST...POSING A THREAT FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS THAN FURTHER NORTH. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 01Z.

...NORTHEAST MO INTO NORTHERN IL/LOWER MI...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 504
COVERS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL INTO NORTHERN IND AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MI UNTIL 01Z. REF MCD 1738 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...NE KS...

A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER CONTINUES TO FESTER OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF EARLIER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF TOPEKA. WHILE THE AIRMASS IS
STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR AND SFC MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...LACKLUSTER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT COMPARED TO FURTHER NORTH OVER MN MAY
BE LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL. ANY GREATER ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
CONDITIONAL AND DEPENDENT ON UPSCALE GROWTH/COLD POOL GENERATION.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT
RISK AT THIS TIME.

...GREAT BASIN...

NO CHANGES MADE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SOME
MARGINAL WIND GUSTS AND HAIL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

..LEITMAN.. 09/20/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

...EASTERN DAKOTAS ACROSS MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
A POTENT AND COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA WILL TRACK QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM ND AND
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST INDICATIONS
SUPPORT AT LEAST AN 80KT 500MB JET AIDING IN THE RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF THIS IMPULSE ACROSS MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONGLY FORCED DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITHIN/BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE MID/UPPER JET WILL BE REALIZED ALONG A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/WIND-SHIFT THAT IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM ND/MN
BORDER TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WI THROUGH EVENING.
DESPITE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SURGE
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S F...THE
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING/LIFT WILL COINCIDE PREFERENTIALLY WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LOW-TOPPED
LINEAR CONVECTION...AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
ACROSS WESTERN MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN INTENSITY OF MESO-BETA
SCALE FORCING...HIGH RES MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN THE
EVOLUTION OF A LINEAR MCS MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WITH LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING NEARLY CLOUDLESS CONDITIONS FROM
EASTERN DAKOTAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT SUFFICIENT HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STORMS MOVE OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAIL UP
TO AN INCH ALSO APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE MORE
ROBUST UPDRAFTS OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

...NORTHEAST MO/EASTERN IA TO SOUTHERN WI/NRN IL/IND AND LOWER MI...

SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS REGARDING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION ACROSS THESE AREAS COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH.
ISOLATED...MOSTLY WEAK...CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE LEADING
FRONTAL WIND-SHIFT ACROSS PARTS OF IA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEB THIS
MORNING. CI/DEBRIS CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WERE THINNING AND
THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. AS WEAK INHIBITION IS OVERCOME EXPECT MORE ROBUST
STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED WEAK
CONFLUENCE ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH 1) LEADING FRONT...AND 2)
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM NORTHERN MO TO
SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL. MODEST TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY
/SBCAPE 2000-2500 J PER KG/ IS FORECAST TO EXIST NEAR/AHEAD OF THE
INCREASE CONVECTION OVER MO/IL...WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN CAPE TO
UNDER 1000 J PER KG WITH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT INTO LOWER MI.
GREATEST SUPPORTIVE JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING IS
LIKELY TO EVOLVE FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE KS/MO BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND SPORADIC LARGE HAIL. A COUPLE
OF SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR A TORNADO IF
STORMS CAN RETAIN DISCRETE CHARACTER AND ENCOUNTER LOCALLY ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR ANY LAKE BREEZES...OR RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES.
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABLE.

...GREAT BASIN...
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD OVER NV THROUGH TONIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL BE
SPURRED/SUSTAINED BY A SLOW INCREASE IN BOTH MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS
AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AS DEEP-LAYER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS EASTWARD
FROM CA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR MORE ROBUST STORMS BUT
DEEPENING/WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL DEVELOP WITH NEARLY
DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES EVOLVING COINCIDENT WITH GENERALLY WEAK
MLCAPE AOB 500 J PER KG. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE MODEST
FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS...SUFFICIENT AND STRENGTHENING FLOW
THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...IN COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASE
IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT....SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST
STORM ORGANIZATION INTO THIS EVENING WITH LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND AND
HAIL POSSIBLE.





000
ACUS11 KWNS 201825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201825
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-202000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL IL...SRN LAKE MI...NRN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201825Z - 202000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL IL INTO NRN INDIANA.  AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BY 20Z.

DISCUSSION...A FEW STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM ERN IA INTO NRN IL
WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS REGION IS
AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED EWD MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH/ZONE OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS IA.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SRN EDGE OF A REGION OF THICKER CLOUD
COVER EXTENDING FROM ERN IA ACROSS FAR NRN IL AND SRN LAKE MI...WITH
THIN CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH.  STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING IS OCCURRING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CLOUD EDGE WITH RESULTANT MESOSCALE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING CIRCULATIONS OCCURRING ALONG THIS AXIS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
DISCUSSION AREA.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD FROM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF IL INTO  NWRN
INDIANA...CONTRIBUTING TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG.  LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY WINDS OF 35-45 KT
ABOVE 1-2 KM AGL INDICATED ON LATEST DVN AND LOT VAD PROFILES AND
ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KT IN THE LOWEST 4-6 KM WILL
ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH SHORT LINE SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.  AS ACTIVITY STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON...MORE
INTENSE CELLS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL...WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
BY 20Z.

..WEISS/CARBIN.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41829016 42398950 42478764 42108632 41748571 40778592
            40508708 40178887 39959036 40439116 41419064 41829016





000
ACUS11 KWNS 201825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201825
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-202000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL IL...SRN LAKE MI...NRN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201825Z - 202000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL IL INTO NRN INDIANA.  AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BY 20Z.

DISCUSSION...A FEW STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM ERN IA INTO NRN IL
WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS REGION IS
AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED EWD MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH/ZONE OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS IA.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SRN EDGE OF A REGION OF THICKER CLOUD
COVER EXTENDING FROM ERN IA ACROSS FAR NRN IL AND SRN LAKE MI...WITH
THIN CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH.  STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING IS OCCURRING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CLOUD EDGE WITH RESULTANT MESOSCALE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING CIRCULATIONS OCCURRING ALONG THIS AXIS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
DISCUSSION AREA.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD FROM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF IL INTO  NWRN
INDIANA...CONTRIBUTING TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG.  LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY WINDS OF 35-45 KT
ABOVE 1-2 KM AGL INDICATED ON LATEST DVN AND LOT VAD PROFILES AND
ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KT IN THE LOWEST 4-6 KM WILL
ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH SHORT LINE SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.  AS ACTIVITY STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON...MORE
INTENSE CELLS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL...WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
BY 20Z.

..WEISS/CARBIN.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41829016 42398950 42478764 42108632 41748571 40778592
            40508708 40178887 39959036 40439116 41419064 41829016






000
ACUS11 KWNS 201825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201825
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-202000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL IL...SRN LAKE MI...NRN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201825Z - 202000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL IL INTO NRN INDIANA.  AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BY 20Z.

DISCUSSION...A FEW STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM ERN IA INTO NRN IL
WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS REGION IS
AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED EWD MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH/ZONE OF
MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS IA.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SRN EDGE OF A REGION OF THICKER CLOUD
COVER EXTENDING FROM ERN IA ACROSS FAR NRN IL AND SRN LAKE MI...WITH
THIN CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH.  STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING IS OCCURRING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CLOUD EDGE WITH RESULTANT MESOSCALE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING CIRCULATIONS OCCURRING ALONG THIS AXIS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
DISCUSSION AREA.

MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NEWD FROM THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF IL INTO  NWRN
INDIANA...CONTRIBUTING TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG.  LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY WINDS OF 35-45 KT
ABOVE 1-2 KM AGL INDICATED ON LATEST DVN AND LOT VAD PROFILES AND
ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KT IN THE LOWEST 4-6 KM WILL
ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH SHORT LINE SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.  AS ACTIVITY STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON...MORE
INTENSE CELLS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL...WHILE AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
BY 20Z.

..WEISS/CARBIN.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41829016 42398950 42478764 42108632 41748571 40778592
            40508708 40178887 39959036 40439116 41419064 41829016





000
ACUS11 KWNS 201808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201807
MOZ000-KSZ000-202030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...FAR NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201807Z - 202030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING SEWD ACROSS
NWRN MO INTO NERN KS. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY BE EXTENDED WWD AT
20Z...WITH WATCH ISSUANCE CONDITIONAL ON STORM COVERAGE.

DISCUSSION...STORMS NEAR AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
SEWD OUT OF NEB AND NOW INTO NERN KS WHERE LARGE HAIL IS ONGOING.
THESE CELLS INITIALLY BEGAN A BIT ELEVATED WITH PRIMARY INSTABILITY
FEED FROM THE W AND PER 12Z OAX SOUNDING...BUT MODIFIED TOP SOUNDING
WITH MID 80S TEMPERATURES SUGGEST STORMS ARE NOW SURFACE BASED...AND
AS SUCH...WILL HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL TO TURN RIGHT RELATIVE TO
PREVIOUS SEWD MOTION. VEERING FLOW ALOFT ATOP SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WHICH CONTINUE TO WARM RESULTS IN A SUFFICIENT WIND PROFILE FOR
SUPERCELLS. WITH TIME...THE EXISTING CELL MAY BEGIN TO BOW AS MORE
OUTFLOW IS PRODUCED...WITH VEERING STORM MOTION TOWARD THE S. AN
EXPANDING CU FIELD ALONG I-70 FURTHER SUGGESTS THE AIR MASS IS
BECOMING PRIMED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

IF SEVERE POTENTIAL CAN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...THEN A WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED.

..JEWELL/CARBIN.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39499600 39769599 39899571 39909549 39389411 38939391
            38449394 38089424 38019495 38099578 38259624 38709625
            39109601 39499600





000
ACUS11 KWNS 201808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201807
MOZ000-KSZ000-202030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...FAR NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201807Z - 202030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING SEWD ACROSS
NWRN MO INTO NERN KS. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY BE EXTENDED WWD AT
20Z...WITH WATCH ISSUANCE CONDITIONAL ON STORM COVERAGE.

DISCUSSION...STORMS NEAR AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
SEWD OUT OF NEB AND NOW INTO NERN KS WHERE LARGE HAIL IS ONGOING.
THESE CELLS INITIALLY BEGAN A BIT ELEVATED WITH PRIMARY INSTABILITY
FEED FROM THE W AND PER 12Z OAX SOUNDING...BUT MODIFIED TOP SOUNDING
WITH MID 80S TEMPERATURES SUGGEST STORMS ARE NOW SURFACE BASED...AND
AS SUCH...WILL HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL TO TURN RIGHT RELATIVE TO
PREVIOUS SEWD MOTION. VEERING FLOW ALOFT ATOP SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WHICH CONTINUE TO WARM RESULTS IN A SUFFICIENT WIND PROFILE FOR
SUPERCELLS. WITH TIME...THE EXISTING CELL MAY BEGIN TO BOW AS MORE
OUTFLOW IS PRODUCED...WITH VEERING STORM MOTION TOWARD THE S. AN
EXPANDING CU FIELD ALONG I-70 FURTHER SUGGESTS THE AIR MASS IS
BECOMING PRIMED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

IF SEVERE POTENTIAL CAN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...THEN A WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED.

..JEWELL/CARBIN.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39499600 39769599 39899571 39909549 39389411 38939391
            38449394 38089424 38019495 38099578 38259624 38709625
            39109601 39499600





000
ACUS11 KWNS 201808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201807
MOZ000-KSZ000-202030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...FAR NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201807Z - 202030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING SEWD ACROSS
NWRN MO INTO NERN KS. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAY BE EXTENDED WWD AT
20Z...WITH WATCH ISSUANCE CONDITIONAL ON STORM COVERAGE.

DISCUSSION...STORMS NEAR AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO EVOLVE
SEWD OUT OF NEB AND NOW INTO NERN KS WHERE LARGE HAIL IS ONGOING.
THESE CELLS INITIALLY BEGAN A BIT ELEVATED WITH PRIMARY INSTABILITY
FEED FROM THE W AND PER 12Z OAX SOUNDING...BUT MODIFIED TOP SOUNDING
WITH MID 80S TEMPERATURES SUGGEST STORMS ARE NOW SURFACE BASED...AND
AS SUCH...WILL HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL TO TURN RIGHT RELATIVE TO
PREVIOUS SEWD MOTION. VEERING FLOW ALOFT ATOP SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WHICH CONTINUE TO WARM RESULTS IN A SUFFICIENT WIND PROFILE FOR
SUPERCELLS. WITH TIME...THE EXISTING CELL MAY BEGIN TO BOW AS MORE
OUTFLOW IS PRODUCED...WITH VEERING STORM MOTION TOWARD THE S. AN
EXPANDING CU FIELD ALONG I-70 FURTHER SUGGESTS THE AIR MASS IS
BECOMING PRIMED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

IF SEVERE POTENTIAL CAN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...THEN A WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED.

..JEWELL/CARBIN.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39499600 39769599 39899571 39909549 39389411 38939391
            38449394 38089424 38019495 38099578 38259624 38709625
            39109601 39499600






000
ACUS11 KWNS 201716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201716
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-201815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NERN SD...MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201716Z - 201815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AT 40-50 KT INTO PARTS OF
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL POSSIBLE.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 19Z.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER ERN ND ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS WITHIN THE REGION OF FOCUSED LARGE SCALE ASCENT
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COMPACT UPPER VORTICITY MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING SEWD INTO SWRN MANITOBA AND NORTH CENTRAL ND...AND WITHIN THE
PRONOUNCED LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG NWLY UPPER LEVEL JET.
DESPITE LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH CAPE REACHING AROUND 500
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS CONSISTENT WITH NAM NEST/ESRL AND NCEP HRRR/NSSL WRF
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY FROM SERN ND INTO
WEST CENTRAL/SWRN MN WHERE TOTAL LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE INCREASING
UPDRAFT STRENGTH AT THIS TIME.  PRONOUNCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP AS
ACTIVITY MOVES EWD/SEWD AT 40-50 KT...WITH STRONGER CELLS/SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 19Z.

..WEISS/CARBIN.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   47949728 48249680 48269617 48189565 48049514 47699445
            47019337 46219299 45499318 44189406 44309549 44879677
            45879767 47949728





000
ACUS11 KWNS 201716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201716
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-201815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NERN SD...MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201716Z - 201815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AT 40-50 KT INTO PARTS OF
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL POSSIBLE.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 19Z.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER ERN ND ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS WITHIN THE REGION OF FOCUSED LARGE SCALE ASCENT
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COMPACT UPPER VORTICITY MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING SEWD INTO SWRN MANITOBA AND NORTH CENTRAL ND...AND WITHIN THE
PRONOUNCED LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG NWLY UPPER LEVEL JET.
DESPITE LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH CAPE REACHING AROUND 500
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS CONSISTENT WITH NAM NEST/ESRL AND NCEP HRRR/NSSL WRF
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY FROM SERN ND INTO
WEST CENTRAL/SWRN MN WHERE TOTAL LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE INCREASING
UPDRAFT STRENGTH AT THIS TIME.  PRONOUNCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP AS
ACTIVITY MOVES EWD/SEWD AT 40-50 KT...WITH STRONGER CELLS/SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 19Z.

..WEISS/CARBIN.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   47949728 48249680 48269617 48189565 48049514 47699445
            47019337 46219299 45499318 44189406 44309549 44879677
            45879767 47949728






000
ACUS11 KWNS 201716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201716
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-201815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NERN SD...MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 201716Z - 201815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AT 40-50 KT INTO PARTS OF
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL POSSIBLE.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 19Z.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER ERN ND ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS WITHIN THE REGION OF FOCUSED LARGE SCALE ASCENT
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COMPACT UPPER VORTICITY MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING SEWD INTO SWRN MANITOBA AND NORTH CENTRAL ND...AND WITHIN THE
PRONOUNCED LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG NWLY UPPER LEVEL JET.
DESPITE LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH CAPE REACHING AROUND 500
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS CONSISTENT WITH NAM NEST/ESRL AND NCEP HRRR/NSSL WRF
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY FROM SERN ND INTO
WEST CENTRAL/SWRN MN WHERE TOTAL LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE INCREASING
UPDRAFT STRENGTH AT THIS TIME.  PRONOUNCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP AS
ACTIVITY MOVES EWD/SEWD AT 40-50 KT...WITH STRONGER CELLS/SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 19Z.

..WEISS/CARBIN.. 09/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   47949728 48249680 48269617 48189565 48049514 47699445
            47019337 46219299 45499318 44189406 44309549 44879677
            45879767 47949728





000
ACUS02 KWNS 201648
SWODY2
SPC AC 201648

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST...THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND OVER
FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND TRACK EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z
MONDAY. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...BECOMING POSITIONED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. ISOLATED STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO EASTERN NY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

FURTHER WEST...THE UPPER LOW OVER CA...EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER-SCALE
RIDGE WILL MIGRATE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AS THIS OCCURS.

...PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO NY...

HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG
CYCLONIC MIDLEVEL FLOW /30-45 KT AT 700 MB/ AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD. AS SFC HEATING OCCURS...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
INCREASE AND MLCAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 1500 J/KG. AMPLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KT WILL LEAD TO FAST MOVING...BROKEN BANDS OF
CONVECTION. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS. POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT LONGEVITY OF ANY
MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND ANY HAIL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL QUICKLY WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

...GREAT BASIN...

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACK NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CA AND ACROSS
NV...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30-35 KT/ AND FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF ERN NV TO WRN CO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING RESULTS IN WEAK /LESS THAN 750 J PER
KG/ DESTABILIZATION. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ADEQUATELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED.
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALSO COULD AID IN SOME SMALL/MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

..LEITMAN.. 09/20/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 201648
SWODY2
SPC AC 201648

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST...THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND OVER
FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND TRACK EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z
MONDAY. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BY AFTERNOON...BECOMING POSITIONED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. ISOLATED STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO EASTERN NY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

FURTHER WEST...THE UPPER LOW OVER CA...EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER-SCALE
RIDGE WILL MIGRATE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AS THIS OCCURS.

...PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO NY...

HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG
CYCLONIC MIDLEVEL FLOW /30-45 KT AT 700 MB/ AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD. AS SFC HEATING OCCURS...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
INCREASE AND MLCAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 1500 J/KG. AMPLE FORCING
FOR ASCENT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KT WILL LEAD TO FAST MOVING...BROKEN BANDS OF
CONVECTION. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS WITH
POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS. POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT LONGEVITY OF ANY
MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND ANY HAIL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL QUICKLY WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

...GREAT BASIN...

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACK NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL CA AND ACROSS
NV...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30-35 KT/ AND FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF ERN NV TO WRN CO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING RESULTS IN WEAK /LESS THAN 750 J PER
KG/ DESTABILIZATION. SFC TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S...BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ADEQUATELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED.
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALSO COULD AID IN SOME SMALL/MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

..LEITMAN.. 09/20/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 201631
SWODY1
SPC AC 201630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MN AND THE UPPER
MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GUSTS AND HAIL ARE MOST PROBABLE TODAY OVER
PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS FROM
NORTHERN MISSOURI ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.  A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS
NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN UTAH.

...EASTERN DAKOTAS ACROSS MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
A POTENT AND COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA WILL TRACK QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM ND AND
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST INDICATIONS
SUPPORT AT LEAST AN 80KT 500MB JET AIDING IN THE RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF THIS IMPULSE ACROSS MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONGLY FORCED DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITHIN/BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE MID/UPPER JET WILL BE REALIZED ALONG A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/WIND-SHIFT THAT IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM ND/MN
BORDER TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WI THROUGH EVENING.
DESPITE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SURGE
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S F...THE
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING/LIFT WILL COINCIDE PREFERENTIALLY WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LOW-TOPPED
LINEAR CONVECTION...AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
ACROSS WESTERN MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN INTENSITY OF MESO-BETA
SCALE FORCING...HIGH RES MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN THE
EVOLUTION OF A LINEAR MCS MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WITH LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING NEARLY CLOUDLESS CONDITIONS FROM
EASTERN DAKOTAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT SUFFICIENT HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STORMS MOVE OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAIL UP
TO AN INCH ALSO APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE MORE
ROBUST UPDRAFTS OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

...NORTHEAST MO/EASTERN IA TO SOUTHERN WI/NRN IL/IND AND LOWER MI...

SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS REGARDING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION ACROSS THESE AREAS COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH.
ISOLATED...MOSTLY WEAK...CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE LEADING
FRONTAL WIND-SHIFT ACROSS PARTS OF IA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEB THIS
MORNING. CI/DEBRIS CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WERE THINNING AND
THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. AS WEAK INHIBITION IS OVERCOME EXPECT MORE ROBUST
STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED WEAK
CONFLUENCE ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH 1) LEADING FRONT...AND 2)
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM NORTHERN MO TO
SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL. MODEST TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY
/SBCAPE 2000-2500 J PER KG/ IS FORECAST TO EXIST NEAR/AHEAD OF THE
INCREASE CONVECTION OVER MO/IL...WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN CAPE TO
UNDER 1000 J PER KG WITH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT INTO LOWER MI.
GREATEST SUPPORTIVE JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING IS
LIKELY TO EVOLVE FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE KS/MO BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND SPORADIC LARGE HAIL. A COUPLE
OF SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR A TORNADO IF
STORMS CAN RETAIN DISCRETE CHARACTER AND ENCOUNTER LOCALLY ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR ANY LAKE BREEZES...OR RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES.
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABLE.

...GREAT BASIN...
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD OVER NV THROUGH TONIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL BE
SPURRED/SUSTAINED BY A SLOW INCREASE IN BOTH MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS
AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AS DEEP-LAYER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS EASTWARD
FROM CA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR MORE ROBUST STORMS BUT
DEEPENING/WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL DEVELOP WITH NEARLY
DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES EVOLVING COINCIDENT WITH GENERALLY WEAK
MLCAPE AOB 500 J PER KG. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE MODEST
FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS...SUFFICIENT AND STRENGTHENING FLOW
THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...IN COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASE
IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT....SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST
STORM ORGANIZATION INTO THIS EVENING WITH LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND AND
HAIL POSSIBLE.

..CARBIN/JEWELL.. 09/20/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 201631
SWODY1
SPC AC 201630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MN AND THE UPPER
MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GUSTS AND HAIL ARE MOST PROBABLE TODAY OVER
PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS FROM
NORTHERN MISSOURI ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.  A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS
NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN UTAH.

...EASTERN DAKOTAS ACROSS MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
A POTENT AND COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SHORT-TERM MODEL DATA WILL TRACK QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM ND AND
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST INDICATIONS
SUPPORT AT LEAST AN 80KT 500MB JET AIDING IN THE RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD
TRANSLATION OF THIS IMPULSE ACROSS MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONGLY FORCED DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITHIN/BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE MID/UPPER JET WILL BE REALIZED ALONG A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/WIND-SHIFT THAT IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM ND/MN
BORDER TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WI THROUGH EVENING.
DESPITE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SURGE
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S F...THE
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING/LIFT WILL COINCIDE PREFERENTIALLY WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LOW-TOPPED
LINEAR CONVECTION...AND POSSIBLY EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
ACROSS WESTERN MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN INTENSITY OF MESO-BETA
SCALE FORCING...HIGH RES MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN THE
EVOLUTION OF A LINEAR MCS MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WITH LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING NEARLY CLOUDLESS CONDITIONS FROM
EASTERN DAKOTAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT SUFFICIENT HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AS STORMS MOVE OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAIL UP
TO AN INCH ALSO APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE MORE
ROBUST UPDRAFTS OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

...NORTHEAST MO/EASTERN IA TO SOUTHERN WI/NRN IL/IND AND LOWER MI...

SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS REGARDING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION ACROSS THESE AREAS COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH.
ISOLATED...MOSTLY WEAK...CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE LEADING
FRONTAL WIND-SHIFT ACROSS PARTS OF IA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEB THIS
MORNING. CI/DEBRIS CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WERE THINNING AND
THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. AS WEAK INHIBITION IS OVERCOME EXPECT MORE ROBUST
STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED WEAK
CONFLUENCE ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH 1) LEADING FRONT...AND 2)
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM NORTHERN MO TO
SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL. MODEST TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY
/SBCAPE 2000-2500 J PER KG/ IS FORECAST TO EXIST NEAR/AHEAD OF THE
INCREASE CONVECTION OVER MO/IL...WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN CAPE TO
UNDER 1000 J PER KG WITH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT INTO LOWER MI.
GREATEST SUPPORTIVE JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING IS
LIKELY TO EVOLVE FROM NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE KS/MO BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS AND SPORADIC LARGE HAIL. A COUPLE
OF SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR A TORNADO IF
STORMS CAN RETAIN DISCRETE CHARACTER AND ENCOUNTER LOCALLY ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR ANY LAKE BREEZES...OR RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES.
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABLE.

...GREAT BASIN...
WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD OVER NV THROUGH TONIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL BE
SPURRED/SUSTAINED BY A SLOW INCREASE IN BOTH MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS
AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AS DEEP-LAYER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS EASTWARD
FROM CA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR MORE ROBUST STORMS BUT
DEEPENING/WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL DEVELOP WITH NEARLY
DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES EVOLVING COINCIDENT WITH GENERALLY WEAK
MLCAPE AOB 500 J PER KG. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE MODEST
FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS...SUFFICIENT AND STRENGTHENING FLOW
THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...IN COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASE
IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT....SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST
STORM ORGANIZATION INTO THIS EVENING WITH LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND AND
HAIL POSSIBLE.

..CARBIN/JEWELL.. 09/20/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 201307
SWODY1
SPC AC 201305

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN DAKOTAS AND MUCH OF MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN MO TO SRN LOWER MI...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM GUSTS AND HAIL ARE MOST PROBABLE TODAY OVER
PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS FROM
NORTHERN MISSOURI ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN.  A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS
NEVADA...NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN UTAH.

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER-LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD AMPLIFY THROUGH
PERIOD...CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING OVER ROCKIES...FALLING HEIGHTS
OVER MUCH OF GREAT LAKES REGION...AND INLAND SHIFT OF CLOSED AND
INITIALLY CUT-OFF CYCLONE NOW CENTERED OFFSHORE CA.  BY 12Z...THAT
CYCLONE SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER SIERRAS WHILE COVERING MOST OF CA
AND NV.  FARTHER NE...MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EXTENDING FROM
NEB SANDHILLS TO MN ARROWHEAD AND ADJOINING PARTS OF ONT -- WILL
MOVE EWD TO LH...LOWER MI AND SRN IL BY 00Z...BEFORE EJECTING NEWD
AND WEAKENING AMIDST HEIGHT FALLS FROM MUCH STRONGER UPSTREAM
PERTURBATION.  LATTER FEATURE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER SK -- SHOULD MOVE SEWD TO SRN MB AND WRN MN BY 00Z
WHILE AMPLIFYING CONSIDERABLY.  BY 12Z...THIS TROUGH AND TRAILING
VORTICITY LOBE SHOULD MERGE...RESULTING IN INTENSE AND POSITIVELY
TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ERN LOWER MI/NRN LM AREA ACROSS WI TO
NEAR MN/IA BORDER.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LEADING/NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL LS SWWD ACROSS SERN
MN AND NWRN IA TO CENTRAL/SWRN NEB.  BY 00Z THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH
NWRN LH...CENTRAL/SRN LM...NWRN IL...NRN MO...AND W-CENTRAL/SWRN KS.
 DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD...THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE OVERTAKEN FROM
N-S BY SECOND COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- AND EXTENDING INITIALLY FROM SWRN MB TO NRN MT.  LATTER
FRONT WILL SHOOT SEWD ACROSS DAKOTAS TODAY...REACHING ERN MN...SERN
SD AND WRN NEB BY 00Z.

...NRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
BAND OF SFC-BASED TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...POTENTIALLY
BY LATE MORNING OVER NRN ND...AND MOVE QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS OUTLOOK
AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.  DAMAGING GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED.

IR IMAGERY ATTM SHOWS SWATH OF CLOUDS RESULTING FROM MID-UPPER-LEVEL
CONVECTION...MOVING ACROSS SERN SK AND NWRN ND.  THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH FIELD OF STRONG MIDLEVEL DCVA THAT IMMEDIATELY PRECEDES SK
PERTURBATION...AND WITH LEFT-EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED
UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX.  THESE FEATURES WILL PROCEED SEWD TODAY
ACCOMPANIED BY STG COOLING ALOFT...OVER AND BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT
THAT WILL IMPINGE UPON INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
DESPITE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY 50S
F...STEEPENING LOW-MIDDLE-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT PREFRONTAL
MLCAPE TOPPING 1000 J/KG IN SOME LOCALES.  EVEN WITH SUBSTANTIAL WLY
PREFRONTAL COMPONENT OF SFC WIND...SPEED SHEAR WILL BE ENOUGH TO
YIELD 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDE IN SUPPORT OF STORM
ORGANIZATION...WHILE STG FRONTAL FORCING AIDS IN DENSITY OF
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

...MID MS VALLEY TO LOWER MI...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN NE-SW SWATH THIS AFTN AND
MOVE GENERALLY EWD ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND
SPORADIC SVR HAIL POSSIBLE.  A FEW SUPERCELLS ALSO MAY DEVELOP...AND
A TORNADO RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE STORMS CAN MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY DISCRETE CHARACTER INTO MATURITY.  THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
FROM LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS REGIME ENCOUNTERS
PROGRESSIVELY GREATER STABILITY.

PERSISTENT SWATH OF CLOUDS...PRECIP AND EMBEDDED BANDS OF TSTMS
AHEAD OF LEADING COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SHIFTING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS IA
ALL NIGHT WHILE BACKBUILDING INTO SERN NEB.  PRIND ACTIVITY HAS
PEAKED IN COVERAGE AND SHOULD WANE GRADUALLY THROUGH REMAINDER
FORENOON HOURS.  HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MAY FOCUS CONVECTION INITIATION THIS AFTN IN RATHER WEAKLY
CAPPED AIR MASS.  FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DESTABILIZE
FAVORABLY FROM COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING AND MOIST
ADVECTION...OFFSETTING MODEST LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG OVER LOWER MI AND NWRN INDIANA TO
2000-3000 J/KG IN NRN MO.

...GREAT BASIN...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTN AND PERSIST INTO EVENING...OFFERING ISOLATED SVR GUSTS AND HAIL
WHILE MOVING NWD TO NEWD ACROSS PRIMARILY CENTRAL/ERN NV AND SWRN
UT.  SLOW INCREASE IN BOTH MID-UPPER WINDS AND LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT...WITH APCH OF MID-UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE...WILL BE JUXTAPOSED
WITH DIABATICALLY HEATED/DESTABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MRGL
MOISTURE.  DEEP/WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF
THIS AREA...WITH NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES...BENEATH 500-1000
J/KG MLCAPE.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GRADUALLY VEERING WINDS WITH
HEIGHT THROUGH TROPOSPHERE...I.E. SELYS THROUGH LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS
AND SSWLY FLOW NEAR TROPOPAUSE...ALONG WITH SIMILARLY GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SPEEDS FROM SFC TO UPPER LEVELS.  ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES ARE MODEST...SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR THROUGH CLOUD-BEARING
LAYER MAY SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION.

..EDWARDS/MARSH.. 09/20/2014





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