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000
ACUS02 KWNS 200603
SWODY2
SPC AC 200602

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL STATES AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD
TOWARD THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE NRN GULF.

...CNTRL THROUGH NRN FL...

RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT PARTIALLY MODIFIED
GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F WILL ADVECT NWD INTO
THE FL PENINSULA. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD LIMIT MUCAPE TO AOB 300 J/KG. APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PROMOTE A MODEST SWLY LLJ WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COAST STATES INTO NRN FL SUNDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS REGIME ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

..DIAL.. 12/20/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 200603
SWODY2
SPC AC 200602

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL STATES AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD
TOWARD THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF COAST
STATES...WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE NRN GULF.

...CNTRL THROUGH NRN FL...

RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT PARTIALLY MODIFIED
GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F WILL ADVECT NWD INTO
THE FL PENINSULA. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD LIMIT MUCAPE TO AOB 300 J/KG. APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PROMOTE A MODEST SWLY LLJ WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COAST STATES INTO NRN FL SUNDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS REGIME ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

..DIAL.. 12/20/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 200447
SWODY1
SPC AC 200445

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
AND STABLE AIR MASS...WITH MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. A WEAKLY
MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS WILL LINGER NEAR THE DEEP SOUTH TX COAST. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...BUT THERMAL
PROFILES ARE UNSUPPORTIVE FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.

..ROGERS.. 12/20/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 200447
SWODY1
SPC AC 200445

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
AND STABLE AIR MASS...WITH MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. A WEAKLY
MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS WILL LINGER NEAR THE DEEP SOUTH TX COAST. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...BUT THERMAL
PROFILES ARE UNSUPPORTIVE FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.

..ROGERS.. 12/20/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 200039
SWODY1
SPC AC 200037

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES TONIGHT.

...CNTRL GULF COAST...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER ADJACENT PORTIONS OF AR/OK/TX THIS
EVENING WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD TO THE TN VALLEY
AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
LEADING TO GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL INFLUENCE MUCH OF THE
AREA E OF THE ROCKIES.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A LIGHT RAIN SHIELD
OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT.  APPRECIABLE BUOYANCY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

..SMITH.. 12/20/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 200039
SWODY1
SPC AC 200037

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES TONIGHT.

...CNTRL GULF COAST...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER ADJACENT PORTIONS OF AR/OK/TX THIS
EVENING WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD TO THE TN VALLEY
AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY MORNING.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
LEADING TO GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL INFLUENCE MUCH OF THE
AREA E OF THE ROCKIES.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A LIGHT RAIN SHIELD
OVER THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT.  APPRECIABLE BUOYANCY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

..SMITH.. 12/20/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 191957
SWODY1
SPC AC 191955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF COASTS.

...DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM AREAS
INLAND ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS...SRN LA AND IN THE MOBILE AREA.
VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED IN THE GULF COAST STATES. MUCAPE
NEAR THE COAST OF TX AND LA IS ESTIMATED AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S F. THIS ALONG WITH
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 12/19/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER E TX WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS E/NE
TOWARDS THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY SAT. WITH ONLY MODEST
LOW-LEVEL WAA ATOP A NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER AND THE REINFORCEMENT
OF STATIC STABILITY WITH A BROAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL
SHIELD...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NW/N-CNTRL GULF SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE EXCEPT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER AS A WEAK
CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.

TSTM COVERAGE HAS ALREADY SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED COMPARED TO
EARLIER THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEARTH
OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY/INSTABILITY SAMPLED IN 12Z LCH/SHV/LIX
RAOBS...PROSPECTS FOR INLAND TSTM ACTIVITY APPEAR RATHER LIMITED.
RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE...WITH THE NRN PERIPHERY OF SCANT BUOYANCY SUPPORTING A
RISK FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 191957
SWODY1
SPC AC 191955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF COASTS.

...DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM AREAS
INLAND ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS...SRN LA AND IN THE MOBILE AREA.
VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED IN THE GULF COAST STATES. MUCAPE
NEAR THE COAST OF TX AND LA IS ESTIMATED AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S F. THIS ALONG WITH
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 12/19/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER E TX WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS E/NE
TOWARDS THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY SAT. WITH ONLY MODEST
LOW-LEVEL WAA ATOP A NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER AND THE REINFORCEMENT
OF STATIC STABILITY WITH A BROAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL
SHIELD...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NW/N-CNTRL GULF SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE EXCEPT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER AS A WEAK
CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.

TSTM COVERAGE HAS ALREADY SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED COMPARED TO
EARLIER THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEARTH
OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY/INSTABILITY SAMPLED IN 12Z LCH/SHV/LIX
RAOBS...PROSPECTS FOR INLAND TSTM ACTIVITY APPEAR RATHER LIMITED.
RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE...WITH THE NRN PERIPHERY OF SCANT BUOYANCY SUPPORTING A
RISK FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 191957
SWODY1
SPC AC 191955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF COASTS.

...DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM AREAS
INLAND ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS...SRN LA AND IN THE MOBILE AREA.
VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED IN THE GULF COAST STATES. MUCAPE
NEAR THE COAST OF TX AND LA IS ESTIMATED AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S F. THIS ALONG WITH
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 12/19/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER E TX WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS E/NE
TOWARDS THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY SAT. WITH ONLY MODEST
LOW-LEVEL WAA ATOP A NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER AND THE REINFORCEMENT
OF STATIC STABILITY WITH A BROAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL
SHIELD...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NW/N-CNTRL GULF SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE EXCEPT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER AS A WEAK
CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.

TSTM COVERAGE HAS ALREADY SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED COMPARED TO
EARLIER THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEARTH
OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY/INSTABILITY SAMPLED IN 12Z LCH/SHV/LIX
RAOBS...PROSPECTS FOR INLAND TSTM ACTIVITY APPEAR RATHER LIMITED.
RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE...WITH THE NRN PERIPHERY OF SCANT BUOYANCY SUPPORTING A
RISK FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 191957
SWODY1
SPC AC 191955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF COASTS.

...DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM AREAS
INLAND ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS...SRN LA AND IN THE MOBILE AREA.
VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED IN THE GULF COAST STATES. MUCAPE
NEAR THE COAST OF TX AND LA IS ESTIMATED AT LESS THAN 500 J/KG WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S F. THIS ALONG WITH
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 12/19/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER E TX WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS E/NE
TOWARDS THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY SAT. WITH ONLY MODEST
LOW-LEVEL WAA ATOP A NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER AND THE REINFORCEMENT
OF STATIC STABILITY WITH A BROAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL
SHIELD...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NW/N-CNTRL GULF SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE EXCEPT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER AS A WEAK
CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.

TSTM COVERAGE HAS ALREADY SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED COMPARED TO
EARLIER THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEARTH
OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY/INSTABILITY SAMPLED IN 12Z LCH/SHV/LIX
RAOBS...PROSPECTS FOR INLAND TSTM ACTIVITY APPEAR RATHER LIMITED.
RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE...WITH THE NRN PERIPHERY OF SCANT BUOYANCY SUPPORTING A
RISK FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.





000
ACUS02 KWNS 191706
SWODY2
SPC AC 191705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

...DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WRN U.S.
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WRN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR AN
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IN DEEP SOUTH TX WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS AT
BROWNSVILLE ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 60 F. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CONUS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 12/19/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 191706
SWODY2
SPC AC 191705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

...DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WRN U.S.
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WRN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR AN
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM IN DEEP SOUTH TX WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS AT
BROWNSVILLE ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 60 F. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CONUS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 12/19/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 191615
SWODY1
SPC AC 191613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER E TX WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS E/NE
TOWARDS THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY SAT. WITH ONLY MODEST
LOW-LEVEL WAA ATOP A NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER AND THE REINFORCEMENT
OF STATIC STABILITY WITH A BROAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL
SHIELD...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NW/N-CNTRL GULF SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE EXCEPT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER AS A WEAK
CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.

TSTM COVERAGE HAS ALREADY SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED COMPARED TO
EARLIER THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEARTH
OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY/INSTABILITY SAMPLED IN 12Z LCH/SHV/LIX
RAOBS...PROSPECTS FOR INLAND TSTM ACTIVITY APPEAR RATHER LIMITED.
RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE...WITH THE NRN PERIPHERY OF SCANT BUOYANCY SUPPORTING A
RISK FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI/GLEASON.. 12/19/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 191615
SWODY1
SPC AC 191613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER E TX WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS E/NE
TOWARDS THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY SAT. WITH ONLY MODEST
LOW-LEVEL WAA ATOP A NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER AND THE REINFORCEMENT
OF STATIC STABILITY WITH A BROAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL
SHIELD...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NW/N-CNTRL GULF SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE EXCEPT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER AS A WEAK
CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE.

TSTM COVERAGE HAS ALREADY SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED COMPARED TO
EARLIER THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEARTH
OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY/INSTABILITY SAMPLED IN 12Z LCH/SHV/LIX
RAOBS...PROSPECTS FOR INLAND TSTM ACTIVITY APPEAR RATHER LIMITED.
RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE OFFSHORE
FRONTAL ZONE...WITH THE NRN PERIPHERY OF SCANT BUOYANCY SUPPORTING A
RISK FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI/GLEASON.. 12/19/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 191303
SWODY1
SPC AC 191301

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS...ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO
MOBILE/PENSACOLA AREAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS FCST TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW-AMPLITUDE
SYNOPTICALLY...AND PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AS NUMEROUS MAINLY
LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS TRAVERSE CONUS.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
LOCATED OVER W TX IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES
ENEWD TO ARKLATEX REGION BY 00Z...AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY END OF
PERIOD.

AT SFC...LOOSELY ASSOCIATED FRONTAL-WAVE LOW WAS ANALYZED AT 11Z
OVER MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN JUST INLAND FROM CRP...WITH
WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ENEWD OVER MIDDLE-UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS
AND OFFSHORE LA.  COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW SWD ACROSS LOWER TX
COASTAL COUNTIES AND OVER COASTAL PLAIN OF EXTREME NERN MEX.  WITH
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING N OF THIS REGION WHILE
WEAKENING...SFC LOW IS FCST TO REMAIN WEAK AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD THEN
ENEWD OVER NWRN GULF ALONG FRONTAL ZONE.  LOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
OVER WATER...THOUGH IT MAY REACH MS RIVER MOUTH AROUND 20/12Z.
FRONT ALSO SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE EXCEPT NEAR RIVER MOUTH.

...CENTRAL/S TX TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH REMAINING
DAYLIGHT HOURS...BEFORE WEAKENING OF LIFT AT ALL SCALES LESSENS
COVERAGE OF SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CONVECTION.  MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL WAA
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO LFC WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM NW
OF SFC LOW TO N OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT...AMIDST POCKETS OF
ELEVATED MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.  REINFORCEMENT OF
LOW-LEVEL STATIC STABILITY FROM PROFUSE PRECIP SHIELD NOW OVER SE TX
AND LA SHOULD HELP TO KEEP FRONTAL ZONE AND SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS FROM REACHING INLAND THROUGH PERIOD.
THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND RESULTANT
MEAGER BUOYANCY...SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STG GUSTS TO REACH SFC.
WHILE ISOLATED CLICKS OF SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
DEEPEST/MOST INTENSE CORES...OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
CONDITIONAL AND MEAGER FOR EVEN MRGL PROBABILITIES ATTM.

...NEAR-COASTAL PAC NW...
MOISTURE-CHANNEL AND IR ANIMATIONS INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOUT
TO MOVE ASHORE.  SWATH OF LIGHTNING IS DETECTED ATTM INVOF S-CENTRAL
ORE COAST...AND SEPARATE AREA OF GLACIATED/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
APPEARS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OFFSHORE NWRN ORE AND WA.  ACCOMPANYING
DESTABILIZATION WAS SAMPLED BY 12Z UIL RAOB THAT YIELDED AROUND 350
J/KG MUCAPE AND 200 J/KG MLCAPE...EXTENDING INTO ICING LAYERS
SUITABLE FOR LTG GENERATION DESPITE SFC TEMPS ONLY IN UPPER 40S F
THERE AND 50S OVER PAC WATERS.  THIS MRGLLY BUOYANT AIR MASS WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...FOLLOWED BY RELATIVE LULL LASTING INTO
TONIGHT.  SECOND EPISODE OF THUNDER POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP AFTER
ABOUT 06Z AS LOW-MIDDLE-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OCCUR AHEAD OF NEXT NERN-PAC PERTURBATION.

..EDWARDS/COHEN.. 12/19/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 191303
SWODY1
SPC AC 191301

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS...ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO
MOBILE/PENSACOLA AREAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS FCST TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW-AMPLITUDE
SYNOPTICALLY...AND PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AS NUMEROUS MAINLY
LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS TRAVERSE CONUS.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
LOCATED OVER W TX IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES
ENEWD TO ARKLATEX REGION BY 00Z...AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY END OF
PERIOD.

AT SFC...LOOSELY ASSOCIATED FRONTAL-WAVE LOW WAS ANALYZED AT 11Z
OVER MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN JUST INLAND FROM CRP...WITH
WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ENEWD OVER MIDDLE-UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS
AND OFFSHORE LA.  COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW SWD ACROSS LOWER TX
COASTAL COUNTIES AND OVER COASTAL PLAIN OF EXTREME NERN MEX.  WITH
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING N OF THIS REGION WHILE
WEAKENING...SFC LOW IS FCST TO REMAIN WEAK AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD THEN
ENEWD OVER NWRN GULF ALONG FRONTAL ZONE.  LOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
OVER WATER...THOUGH IT MAY REACH MS RIVER MOUTH AROUND 20/12Z.
FRONT ALSO SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE EXCEPT NEAR RIVER MOUTH.

...CENTRAL/S TX TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH REMAINING
DAYLIGHT HOURS...BEFORE WEAKENING OF LIFT AT ALL SCALES LESSENS
COVERAGE OF SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CONVECTION.  MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL WAA
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO LFC WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM NW
OF SFC LOW TO N OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT...AMIDST POCKETS OF
ELEVATED MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.  REINFORCEMENT OF
LOW-LEVEL STATIC STABILITY FROM PROFUSE PRECIP SHIELD NOW OVER SE TX
AND LA SHOULD HELP TO KEEP FRONTAL ZONE AND SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS FROM REACHING INLAND THROUGH PERIOD.
THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND RESULTANT
MEAGER BUOYANCY...SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STG GUSTS TO REACH SFC.
WHILE ISOLATED CLICKS OF SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
DEEPEST/MOST INTENSE CORES...OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
CONDITIONAL AND MEAGER FOR EVEN MRGL PROBABILITIES ATTM.

...NEAR-COASTAL PAC NW...
MOISTURE-CHANNEL AND IR ANIMATIONS INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOUT
TO MOVE ASHORE.  SWATH OF LIGHTNING IS DETECTED ATTM INVOF S-CENTRAL
ORE COAST...AND SEPARATE AREA OF GLACIATED/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
APPEARS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OFFSHORE NWRN ORE AND WA.  ACCOMPANYING
DESTABILIZATION WAS SAMPLED BY 12Z UIL RAOB THAT YIELDED AROUND 350
J/KG MUCAPE AND 200 J/KG MLCAPE...EXTENDING INTO ICING LAYERS
SUITABLE FOR LTG GENERATION DESPITE SFC TEMPS ONLY IN UPPER 40S F
THERE AND 50S OVER PAC WATERS.  THIS MRGLLY BUOYANT AIR MASS WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...FOLLOWED BY RELATIVE LULL LASTING INTO
TONIGHT.  SECOND EPISODE OF THUNDER POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP AFTER
ABOUT 06Z AS LOW-MIDDLE-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OCCUR AHEAD OF NEXT NERN-PAC PERTURBATION.

..EDWARDS/COHEN.. 12/19/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 191303
SWODY1
SPC AC 191301

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS...ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO
MOBILE/PENSACOLA AREAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS FCST TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW-AMPLITUDE
SYNOPTICALLY...AND PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AS NUMEROUS MAINLY
LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS TRAVERSE CONUS.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
LOCATED OVER W TX IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES
ENEWD TO ARKLATEX REGION BY 00Z...AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY END OF
PERIOD.

AT SFC...LOOSELY ASSOCIATED FRONTAL-WAVE LOW WAS ANALYZED AT 11Z
OVER MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN JUST INLAND FROM CRP...WITH
WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ENEWD OVER MIDDLE-UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS
AND OFFSHORE LA.  COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW SWD ACROSS LOWER TX
COASTAL COUNTIES AND OVER COASTAL PLAIN OF EXTREME NERN MEX.  WITH
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING N OF THIS REGION WHILE
WEAKENING...SFC LOW IS FCST TO REMAIN WEAK AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD THEN
ENEWD OVER NWRN GULF ALONG FRONTAL ZONE.  LOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
OVER WATER...THOUGH IT MAY REACH MS RIVER MOUTH AROUND 20/12Z.
FRONT ALSO SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE EXCEPT NEAR RIVER MOUTH.

...CENTRAL/S TX TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH REMAINING
DAYLIGHT HOURS...BEFORE WEAKENING OF LIFT AT ALL SCALES LESSENS
COVERAGE OF SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CONVECTION.  MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL WAA
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO LFC WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM NW
OF SFC LOW TO N OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT...AMIDST POCKETS OF
ELEVATED MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.  REINFORCEMENT OF
LOW-LEVEL STATIC STABILITY FROM PROFUSE PRECIP SHIELD NOW OVER SE TX
AND LA SHOULD HELP TO KEEP FRONTAL ZONE AND SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS FROM REACHING INLAND THROUGH PERIOD.
THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND RESULTANT
MEAGER BUOYANCY...SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STG GUSTS TO REACH SFC.
WHILE ISOLATED CLICKS OF SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
DEEPEST/MOST INTENSE CORES...OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
CONDITIONAL AND MEAGER FOR EVEN MRGL PROBABILITIES ATTM.

...NEAR-COASTAL PAC NW...
MOISTURE-CHANNEL AND IR ANIMATIONS INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOUT
TO MOVE ASHORE.  SWATH OF LIGHTNING IS DETECTED ATTM INVOF S-CENTRAL
ORE COAST...AND SEPARATE AREA OF GLACIATED/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
APPEARS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OFFSHORE NWRN ORE AND WA.  ACCOMPANYING
DESTABILIZATION WAS SAMPLED BY 12Z UIL RAOB THAT YIELDED AROUND 350
J/KG MUCAPE AND 200 J/KG MLCAPE...EXTENDING INTO ICING LAYERS
SUITABLE FOR LTG GENERATION DESPITE SFC TEMPS ONLY IN UPPER 40S F
THERE AND 50S OVER PAC WATERS.  THIS MRGLLY BUOYANT AIR MASS WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...FOLLOWED BY RELATIVE LULL LASTING INTO
TONIGHT.  SECOND EPISODE OF THUNDER POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP AFTER
ABOUT 06Z AS LOW-MIDDLE-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OCCUR AHEAD OF NEXT NERN-PAC PERTURBATION.

..EDWARDS/COHEN.. 12/19/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 191303
SWODY1
SPC AC 191301

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS...ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO
MOBILE/PENSACOLA AREAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS FCST TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW-AMPLITUDE
SYNOPTICALLY...AND PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AS NUMEROUS MAINLY
LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS TRAVERSE CONUS.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
LOCATED OVER W TX IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES
ENEWD TO ARKLATEX REGION BY 00Z...AND SRN APPALACHIANS BY END OF
PERIOD.

AT SFC...LOOSELY ASSOCIATED FRONTAL-WAVE LOW WAS ANALYZED AT 11Z
OVER MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN JUST INLAND FROM CRP...WITH
WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ENEWD OVER MIDDLE-UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS
AND OFFSHORE LA.  COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW SWD ACROSS LOWER TX
COASTAL COUNTIES AND OVER COASTAL PLAIN OF EXTREME NERN MEX.  WITH
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING N OF THIS REGION WHILE
WEAKENING...SFC LOW IS FCST TO REMAIN WEAK AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD THEN
ENEWD OVER NWRN GULF ALONG FRONTAL ZONE.  LOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
OVER WATER...THOUGH IT MAY REACH MS RIVER MOUTH AROUND 20/12Z.
FRONT ALSO SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE EXCEPT NEAR RIVER MOUTH.

...CENTRAL/S TX TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH REMAINING
DAYLIGHT HOURS...BEFORE WEAKENING OF LIFT AT ALL SCALES LESSENS
COVERAGE OF SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CONVECTION.  MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL WAA
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT TO LFC WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM NW
OF SFC LOW TO N OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT...AMIDST POCKETS OF
ELEVATED MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.  REINFORCEMENT OF
LOW-LEVEL STATIC STABILITY FROM PROFUSE PRECIP SHIELD NOW OVER SE TX
AND LA SHOULD HELP TO KEEP FRONTAL ZONE AND SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS FROM REACHING INLAND THROUGH PERIOD.
THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND RESULTANT
MEAGER BUOYANCY...SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STG GUSTS TO REACH SFC.
WHILE ISOLATED CLICKS OF SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
DEEPEST/MOST INTENSE CORES...OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
CONDITIONAL AND MEAGER FOR EVEN MRGL PROBABILITIES ATTM.

...NEAR-COASTAL PAC NW...
MOISTURE-CHANNEL AND IR ANIMATIONS INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ABOUT
TO MOVE ASHORE.  SWATH OF LIGHTNING IS DETECTED ATTM INVOF S-CENTRAL
ORE COAST...AND SEPARATE AREA OF GLACIATED/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
APPEARS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OFFSHORE NWRN ORE AND WA.  ACCOMPANYING
DESTABILIZATION WAS SAMPLED BY 12Z UIL RAOB THAT YIELDED AROUND 350
J/KG MUCAPE AND 200 J/KG MLCAPE...EXTENDING INTO ICING LAYERS
SUITABLE FOR LTG GENERATION DESPITE SFC TEMPS ONLY IN UPPER 40S F
THERE AND 50S OVER PAC WATERS.  THIS MRGLLY BUOYANT AIR MASS WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...FOLLOWED BY RELATIVE LULL LASTING INTO
TONIGHT.  SECOND EPISODE OF THUNDER POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP AFTER
ABOUT 06Z AS LOW-MIDDLE-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OCCUR AHEAD OF NEXT NERN-PAC PERTURBATION.

..EDWARDS/COHEN.. 12/19/2014





000
ACUS03 KWNS 190832
SWODY3
SPC AC 190830

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL STATES THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.
A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES...WHILE A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE NRN GULF.

...CNTRL THROUGH NRN FL...

RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT PARTIALLY MODIFIED
GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F WILL ADVECT NWD INTO
THE FL PENINSULA. THE MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MUCAPE TO AOB 300 J/KG. THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN THE LLJ AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COAST STATES INTO NRN FL. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
IN THIS REGIME ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

..DIAL.. 12/19/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 190832
SWODY3
SPC AC 190830

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL STATES THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.
A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES...WHILE A WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE NRN GULF.

...CNTRL THROUGH NRN FL...

RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT PARTIALLY MODIFIED
GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F WILL ADVECT NWD INTO
THE FL PENINSULA. THE MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MUCAPE TO AOB 300 J/KG. THE APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN THE LLJ AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COAST STATES INTO NRN FL. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
IN THIS REGIME ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

..DIAL.. 12/19/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 190653
SWODY2
SPC AC 190652

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION ON
SATURDAY WITH A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CNTRL U.S. BY 12Z SUNDAY. LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY
OVER THE SERN STATES EARLY IN THE DAY WILL EXIT THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TX SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN STATES MAINTAINING
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF.

...S TX...

FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH FOSTERING WEAK ELEVATED CAPE.
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY INITIATE IN THIS REGIME AS WELL AS POTENTIAL
FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

..DIAL.. 12/19/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 190653
SWODY2
SPC AC 190652

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION ON
SATURDAY WITH A FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE
CNTRL U.S. BY 12Z SUNDAY. LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY
OVER THE SERN STATES EARLY IN THE DAY WILL EXIT THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER WEST A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH TX SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN STATES MAINTAINING
OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF.

...S TX...

FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH FOSTERING WEAK ELEVATED CAPE.
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY INITIATE IN THIS REGIME AS WELL AS POTENTIAL
FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

..DIAL.. 12/19/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 190513
SWODY1
SPC AC 190512

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS GULF COAST EASTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHEARING ENEWD AS IT MOVES FROM TX TO THE LOWER MS AND TN
RIVER VALLEYS.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN INFLECTION IN A WEAK FRONT
OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL DEVELOP ENEWD FROM THE SHELF
WATERS OF THE MIDDLE TX COAST TO THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER.
ELSEWHERE...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE WRN U.S. AND NRN TIER OF STATES.

...TX COAST AND SRN LA...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SRN U.S. MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY DURING
THE DAY 1 PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT SURFACE REFLECTION AND
CONSEQUENTLY...THE NWD PENETRATION OF A MODIFIED MARITIME AIR MASS
ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST INTO SRN LA.  DEWPOINTS FROM BUOYS OVER
THE OPEN GULF S OF THE UPPER TX COAST/SRN LA ON THURSDAY EVENING
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S DEG F.  YET...ONLY A MODEST
STRENGTHENING IN SSWLY H85 FLOW /30 KT/ IS FORECAST AND SIGNIFICANT
QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER THE WARM SECTOR CAN PENETRATE INTO SRN LA
FROM THE IMMEDIATE SHELF WATERS GIVEN THE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEPICTED
IN MODEL GUIDANCE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS BUT GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINAL MUCAPE /250-750 J PER KG/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT UPDRAFT
INTENSITY.  WHILE A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...THE
LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM THREAT PRECLUDES A
LOW CATEGORICAL THREAT OUTLOOK ATTM.

..SMITH/ROGERS.. 12/19/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 190513
SWODY1
SPC AC 190512

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS GULF COAST EASTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHEARING ENEWD AS IT MOVES FROM TX TO THE LOWER MS AND TN
RIVER VALLEYS.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN INFLECTION IN A WEAK FRONT
OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL DEVELOP ENEWD FROM THE SHELF
WATERS OF THE MIDDLE TX COAST TO THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER.
ELSEWHERE...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE WRN U.S. AND NRN TIER OF STATES.

...TX COAST AND SRN LA...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SRN U.S. MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY DURING
THE DAY 1 PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT SURFACE REFLECTION AND
CONSEQUENTLY...THE NWD PENETRATION OF A MODIFIED MARITIME AIR MASS
ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST INTO SRN LA.  DEWPOINTS FROM BUOYS OVER
THE OPEN GULF S OF THE UPPER TX COAST/SRN LA ON THURSDAY EVENING
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S DEG F.  YET...ONLY A MODEST
STRENGTHENING IN SSWLY H85 FLOW /30 KT/ IS FORECAST AND SIGNIFICANT
QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER THE WARM SECTOR CAN PENETRATE INTO SRN LA
FROM THE IMMEDIATE SHELF WATERS GIVEN THE WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEPICTED
IN MODEL GUIDANCE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS BUT GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINAL MUCAPE /250-750 J PER KG/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT UPDRAFT
INTENSITY.  WHILE A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...THE
LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM THREAT PRECLUDES A
LOW CATEGORICAL THREAT OUTLOOK ATTM.

..SMITH/ROGERS.. 12/19/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 190037
SWODY1
SPC AC 190035

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA.  OTHER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST.

...TX...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A LOWER-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EWD ALONG THE AZ/NM/MEXICO BORDER AND THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TO W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SERN AND CNTRL TX AS LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE IS COMPLIMENTED BY A STATIONARY FRONT INTERACTING WITH
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
NONETHELESS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE RELEGATED N OF
THE FRONT AND REMAIN WEAK.  HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
COULD POSE A SMALL HAIL RISK...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL
ENOUGH PRECLUDING A LOW SEVERE CATEGORICAL HIGHLIGHT.

..SMITH.. 12/19/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 190037
SWODY1
SPC AC 190035

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA.  OTHER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST.

...TX...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A LOWER-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EWD ALONG THE AZ/NM/MEXICO BORDER AND THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TO W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SERN AND CNTRL TX AS LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE IS COMPLIMENTED BY A STATIONARY FRONT INTERACTING WITH
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
NONETHELESS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE RELEGATED N OF
THE FRONT AND REMAIN WEAK.  HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
COULD POSE A SMALL HAIL RISK...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL
ENOUGH PRECLUDING A LOW SEVERE CATEGORICAL HIGHLIGHT.

..SMITH.. 12/19/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 181943
SWODY1
SPC AC 181942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM WEST AND SOUTH TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA.  OTHER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST
TONIGHT.

NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

..BROYLES.. 12/18/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

...TX...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO TX THIS EVENING.  MOISTENING
AND LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVERNIGHT.  WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT OVER PARTS OF SOUTH TX...IT APPEARS THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF
MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.

ELSEWHERE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE WA/ORE COAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A COLD UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST TX
AND SOUTHWEST LA.





000
ACUS02 KWNS 181717
SWODY2
SPC AC 181716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER TX COAST AND LA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF MID AND
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE LOUISIANA COAST.

...MIDDLE TO UPPER TX COAST/WRN LA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NRN MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THE SRN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS EXTENDING ENEWD INTO SRN LA.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG A
SHARP GRADIENT IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NEAR VICTORIA NEWD TO NEAR
BEAUMONT. MODEL FORECASTS GENERALLY MOVE THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY EWD
WITH TIME WITH CONVECTION FORECAST TO AFFECT THE MARGINAL RISK AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
VICTORIA AND BEAUMONT AT 18Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 60 TO 65 KT AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 30 KT. IN SPITE OF POOR LAPSE RATES...THE
AMOUNT OF SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. INSTABILITY ALONG THE COASTS OF TX AND LA
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT BRIEF.

..BROYLES.. 12/18/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 181717
SWODY2
SPC AC 181716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER TX COAST AND LA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF MID AND
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE LOUISIANA COAST.

...MIDDLE TO UPPER TX COAST/WRN LA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM NRN MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THE SRN
PLAINS ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS EXTENDING ENEWD INTO SRN LA.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG A
SHARP GRADIENT IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NEAR VICTORIA NEWD TO NEAR
BEAUMONT. MODEL FORECASTS GENERALLY MOVE THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY EWD
WITH TIME WITH CONVECTION FORECAST TO AFFECT THE MARGINAL RISK AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
VICTORIA AND BEAUMONT AT 18Z SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 60 TO 65 KT AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 30 KT. IN SPITE OF POOR LAPSE RATES...THE
AMOUNT OF SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. INSTABILITY ALONG THE COASTS OF TX AND LA
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THREAT BRIEF.

..BROYLES.. 12/18/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 181627
SWODY1
SPC AC 181626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM WEST AND SOUTH TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA.  OTHER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST
TONIGHT.

...TX...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO TX THIS EVENING.  MOISTENING
AND LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVERNIGHT.  WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT OVER PARTS OF SOUTH TX...IT APPEARS THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF
MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.

ELSEWHERE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE WA/ORE COAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A COLD UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST TX
AND SOUTHWEST LA.

..HART/GLEASON.. 12/18/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 181627
SWODY1
SPC AC 181626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM WEST AND SOUTH TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA.  OTHER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST
TONIGHT.

...TX...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.
THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO TX THIS EVENING.  MOISTENING
AND LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVERNIGHT.  WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT OVER PARTS OF SOUTH TX...IT APPEARS THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF
MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.

ELSEWHERE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE WA/ORE COAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A COLD UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST TX
AND SOUTHWEST LA.

..HART/GLEASON.. 12/18/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 181259
SWODY1
SPC AC 181258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TX...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS TONIGHT.

...TX AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE GENERALLY EWD OVER THE MID
MS/OH VALLEYS TODAY...WHILE AN UPSTREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY APPROACHES THE BIG BEND/CENTRAL TX LATE TONIGHT.  ASCENT AND
LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL INCREASE OVER TX BY TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS INLAND AND ABOVE A SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS ACROSS ALL
BUT DEEP S TX.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED NEAR THE GROUND WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE STALLED FRONT NEAR THE TX COAST.
OVERNIGHT...BUOYANCY ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN THE WAA REGIME...AS
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPROACH FROM THE W.  THOUGH BUOYANCY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG /MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J PER KG/...500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
-15C...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM...AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL FAVOR SOME ELEVATED STORMS WITH ORGANIZED STRUCTURE AND
AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL TONIGHT.

...PAC NW COAST LATE TONIGHT...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BROAD AREA OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS W OF THE OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
THUS...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WA AND
NW ORE COASTS...MAINLY WITH AND AFTER FROPA FROM 06-12Z.

..THOMPSON/PICCA.. 12/18/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 181259
SWODY1
SPC AC 181258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TX...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS TONIGHT.

...TX AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE GENERALLY EWD OVER THE MID
MS/OH VALLEYS TODAY...WHILE AN UPSTREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY APPROACHES THE BIG BEND/CENTRAL TX LATE TONIGHT.  ASCENT AND
LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL INCREASE OVER TX BY TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS INLAND AND ABOVE A SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS ACROSS ALL
BUT DEEP S TX.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED NEAR THE GROUND WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE STALLED FRONT NEAR THE TX COAST.
OVERNIGHT...BUOYANCY ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN THE WAA REGIME...AS
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPROACH FROM THE W.  THOUGH BUOYANCY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG /MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J PER KG/...500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
-15C...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM...AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL FAVOR SOME ELEVATED STORMS WITH ORGANIZED STRUCTURE AND
AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL TONIGHT.

...PAC NW COAST LATE TONIGHT...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BROAD AREA OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS W OF THE OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
THUS...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WA AND
NW ORE COASTS...MAINLY WITH AND AFTER FROPA FROM 06-12Z.

..THOMPSON/PICCA.. 12/18/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 181259
SWODY1
SPC AC 181258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TX...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS TONIGHT.

...TX AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE GENERALLY EWD OVER THE MID
MS/OH VALLEYS TODAY...WHILE AN UPSTREAM WAVE OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY APPROACHES THE BIG BEND/CENTRAL TX LATE TONIGHT.  ASCENT AND
LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL INCREASE OVER TX BY TONIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS INLAND AND ABOVE A SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS ACROSS ALL
BUT DEEP S TX.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED NEAR THE GROUND WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE STALLED FRONT NEAR THE TX COAST.
OVERNIGHT...BUOYANCY ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN THE WAA REGIME...AS
COOLER MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPROACH FROM THE W.  THOUGH BUOYANCY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG /MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J PER KG/...500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
-15C...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM...AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL FAVOR SOME ELEVATED STORMS WITH ORGANIZED STRUCTURE AND
AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL TONIGHT.

...PAC NW COAST LATE TONIGHT...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BROAD AREA OF
CONVECTIVE CELLS W OF THE OFFSHORE BAROCLINIC ZONE...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES.
THUS...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WA AND
NW ORE COASTS...MAINLY WITH AND AFTER FROPA FROM 06-12Z.

..THOMPSON/PICCA.. 12/18/2014





000
ACUS03 KWNS 180755
SWODY3
SPC AC 180753

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT AMPLIFICATION WITHIN AN INTENSE BELT OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC WILL PROCEED DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  AS THIS OCCURS...LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGING STILL
APPEARS LIKELY TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC ...INTO
THE PACIFIC COAST STATES.  WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SPLIT
EAST OF THIS RIDGE...THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
AMERICA...BUT AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGHING WITHIN THE SEPARATE
STREAMS DOES APPEAR PROBABLE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WHILE
RIDGING BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

AS THIS OCCURS...FURTHER WEAKENING OF A SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATION...EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT 12Z SATURDAY...APPEARS PROBABLE.  IT MAY
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN A STREAM TO THE NORTH....BUT NEW SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK.  AT THE SAME TIME...IN ITS WAKE...THE
INITIAL WEAK SURFACE WAVE SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER NEAR/SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WHILE THE TRAILING FRONT STALLS
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

THE FRONTAL ZONE COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
INSTABILITY BASED ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION OVER INLAND AREAS
PROBABLY WILL REMAIN WEAK...WITH NEGLIGIBLE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..KERR.. 12/18/2014





000
ACUS03 KWNS 180755
SWODY3
SPC AC 180753

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT AMPLIFICATION WITHIN AN INTENSE BELT OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC WILL PROCEED DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  AS THIS OCCURS...LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGING STILL
APPEARS LIKELY TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC ...INTO
THE PACIFIC COAST STATES.  WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SPLIT
EAST OF THIS RIDGE...THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
AMERICA...BUT AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGHING WITHIN THE SEPARATE
STREAMS DOES APPEAR PROBABLE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WHILE
RIDGING BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

AS THIS OCCURS...FURTHER WEAKENING OF A SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATION...EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT 12Z SATURDAY...APPEARS PROBABLE.  IT MAY
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN A STREAM TO THE NORTH....BUT NEW SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK.  AT THE SAME TIME...IN ITS WAKE...THE
INITIAL WEAK SURFACE WAVE SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER NEAR/SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WHILE THE TRAILING FRONT STALLS
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

THE FRONTAL ZONE COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
INSTABILITY BASED ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION OVER INLAND AREAS
PROBABLY WILL REMAIN WEAK...WITH NEGLIGIBLE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..KERR.. 12/18/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 180755
SWODY3
SPC AC 180753

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT AMPLIFICATION WITHIN AN INTENSE BELT OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC WILL PROCEED DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.  AS THIS OCCURS...LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGING STILL
APPEARS LIKELY TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC ...INTO
THE PACIFIC COAST STATES.  WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SPLIT
EAST OF THIS RIDGE...THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
AMERICA...BUT AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROUGHING WITHIN THE SEPARATE
STREAMS DOES APPEAR PROBABLE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...WHILE
RIDGING BUILDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

AS THIS OCCURS...FURTHER WEAKENING OF A SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATION...EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSING EAST OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT 12Z SATURDAY...APPEARS PROBABLE.  IT MAY
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN A STREAM TO THE NORTH....BUT NEW SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK.  AT THE SAME TIME...IN ITS WAKE...THE
INITIAL WEAK SURFACE WAVE SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER NEAR/SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WHILE THE TRAILING FRONT STALLS
NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

THE FRONTAL ZONE COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
INSTABILITY BASED ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION OVER INLAND AREAS
PROBABLY WILL REMAIN WEAK...WITH NEGLIGIBLE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..KERR.. 12/18/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 180601
SWODY2
SPC AC 180600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF MID AND
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE LOUISIANA COAST.

...SYNOPSIS...
SOME AMPLIFICATION OF INITIALLY STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  BUT THIS IS NOT YET EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE PATTERN MUCH
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SHORT WAVES WITHIN SPLIT WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE
PACIFIC SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...INCLUDING ONE FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND...THROUGH PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY.

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE PROBABLY WILL SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG A REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE...EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST INTO THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.  HOWEVER...DRY/POTENTIALLY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
INITIALLY PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES...TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...MAY BE SLOW TO MODIFY.  AND IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY
PROBABLE THAT STRONGER FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE SURFACE FRONT...EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD AN EVEN MORE SUPPRESSED/WEAKER
FRONTAL WAVE...TRACKING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF COASTAL AREAS...AFTER
MIGRATING EAST OF THE TEXAS COAST.

...MID/UPPER TEXAS COAST THROUGH CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS...
GIVEN THE STILL FAIRLY MODEST NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY
OVER THE WESTERN GULF...ANY BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION LIKELY
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE STEEPENING OF
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  WHILE 5
PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE BEING MAINTAINED...THEY ARE NOW
CONFINED TO MORE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
MODEL TRENDS CONCERNING THE SURFACE LOW...AND POTENTIAL FOR THE WARM
SECTOR TO ADVANCE INLAND.  WITH CURRENT TRENDS ALSO SUGGESTING
CORRESPONDING WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR...IT IS BECOMING MORE UNCLEAR JUST HOW CONDUCIVE THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.  IF CURRENT TRENDS
PERSIST...SEVERE PROBABILITIES COULD BE REMOVED IN LATER OUTLOOKS
FOR THIS PERIOD.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /WITH 500 MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -30C/
ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS INLAND...AND A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...SCATTERED WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
WASHINGTON/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

..KERR.. 12/18/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 180601
SWODY2
SPC AC 180600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF MID AND
UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE LOUISIANA COAST.

...SYNOPSIS...
SOME AMPLIFICATION OF INITIALLY STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  BUT THIS IS NOT YET EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE PATTERN MUCH
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  SHORT WAVES WITHIN SPLIT WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE
PACIFIC SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...INCLUDING ONE FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND...THROUGH PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY.

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE PROBABLY WILL SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG A REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE...EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST INTO THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.  HOWEVER...DRY/POTENTIALLY COLD BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
INITIALLY PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES...TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...MAY BE SLOW TO MODIFY.  AND IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY
PROBABLE THAT STRONGER FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE SURFACE FRONT...EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD AN EVEN MORE SUPPRESSED/WEAKER
FRONTAL WAVE...TRACKING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF COASTAL AREAS...AFTER
MIGRATING EAST OF THE TEXAS COAST.

...MID/UPPER TEXAS COAST THROUGH CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS...
GIVEN THE STILL FAIRLY MODEST NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY
OVER THE WESTERN GULF...ANY BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION LIKELY
WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE STEEPENING OF
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  WHILE 5
PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE BEING MAINTAINED...THEY ARE NOW
CONFINED TO MORE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
MODEL TRENDS CONCERNING THE SURFACE LOW...AND POTENTIAL FOR THE WARM
SECTOR TO ADVANCE INLAND.  WITH CURRENT TRENDS ALSO SUGGESTING
CORRESPONDING WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR...IT IS BECOMING MORE UNCLEAR JUST HOW CONDUCIVE THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.  IF CURRENT TRENDS
PERSIST...SEVERE PROBABILITIES COULD BE REMOVED IN LATER OUTLOOKS
FOR THIS PERIOD.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /WITH 500 MB TEMPS AS COLD AS -30C/
ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS INLAND...AND A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...SCATTERED WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
WASHINGTON/NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

..KERR.. 12/18/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 180525
SWODY1
SPC AC 180523

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE TX EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES WILL FEATURE
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CONUS TODAY.  A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE MO OZARKS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  MEANWHILE FARTHER W...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF CA THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO
TODAY AND TO W TX AFTER DARK.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE WRN PORTION OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL
ZONE OVER S TX.

...TX...
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST FROM THE MIDDLE TX
COASTAL PLAIN NEWD INTO SWRN LA MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  BY LATER
IN THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND NEAR THE FRONT ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST.  FORCING FOR
ASCENT VIA WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE W AND CORRESPOND TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
AND N OF THE FRONT AND RESULT IN ELEVATED STORMS.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL BUOYANCY /250-1000 J PER KG MUCAPE/
DEVELOPING AFTER DARK AS THE H85-H7 LAYER MOISTENS.  THE EWD
ADVECTION OF MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN STRONG
CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS TO BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

..SMITH/ROGERS.. 12/18/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 180525
SWODY1
SPC AC 180523

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE TX EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY OF TEXAS TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES WILL FEATURE
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CONUS TODAY.  A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE MO OZARKS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  MEANWHILE FARTHER W...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF CA THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO
TODAY AND TO W TX AFTER DARK.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE WRN PORTION OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL
ZONE OVER S TX.

...TX...
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST FROM THE MIDDLE TX
COASTAL PLAIN NEWD INTO SWRN LA MAINLY DURING THE MORNING.  BY LATER
IN THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND NEAR THE FRONT ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST.  FORCING FOR
ASCENT VIA WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FROM THE W AND CORRESPOND TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
AND N OF THE FRONT AND RESULT IN ELEVATED STORMS.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL BUOYANCY /250-1000 J PER KG MUCAPE/
DEVELOPING AFTER DARK AS THE H85-H7 LAYER MOISTENS.  THE EWD
ADVECTION OF MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN STRONG
CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS TO BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

..SMITH/ROGERS.. 12/18/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 180044
SWODY1
SPC AC 180043

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX REGIONS.  A FEW STORMS MAY FORM OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN U.S. THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS OK AND INTO MO OZARKS BY DAYBREAK.  A RESIDUAL FRONTAL
ZONE LOCATED OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE TX COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT.  WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE TO THE N OF THE BOUNDARY AND LOCATED WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYER
BELT /50 KT LLJ/ WILL SUPPORT AN INTERMITTENT THREAT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF CNTRL TX NWD THROUGH ERN OK AND WRN AR
AND INTO SERN KS AND SWRN MO.

..SMITH.. 12/18/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 180044
SWODY1
SPC AC 180043

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX REGIONS.  A FEW STORMS MAY FORM OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN U.S. THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS OK AND INTO MO OZARKS BY DAYBREAK.  A RESIDUAL FRONTAL
ZONE LOCATED OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE TX COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT.  WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE TO THE N OF THE BOUNDARY AND LOCATED WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYER
BELT /50 KT LLJ/ WILL SUPPORT AN INTERMITTENT THREAT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF CNTRL TX NWD THROUGH ERN OK AND WRN AR
AND INTO SERN KS AND SWRN MO.

..SMITH.. 12/18/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 180044
SWODY1
SPC AC 180043

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX REGIONS.  A FEW STORMS MAY FORM OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN U.S. THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS OK AND INTO MO OZARKS BY DAYBREAK.  A RESIDUAL FRONTAL
ZONE LOCATED OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE TX COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT.  WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE TO THE N OF THE BOUNDARY AND LOCATED WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYER
BELT /50 KT LLJ/ WILL SUPPORT AN INTERMITTENT THREAT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF CNTRL TX NWD THROUGH ERN OK AND WRN AR
AND INTO SERN KS AND SWRN MO.

..SMITH.. 12/18/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 180044
SWODY1
SPC AC 180043

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX REGIONS.  A FEW STORMS MAY FORM OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN U.S. THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS OK AND INTO MO OZARKS BY DAYBREAK.  A RESIDUAL FRONTAL
ZONE LOCATED OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE TX COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT.  WEAK ELEVATED
CAPE TO THE N OF THE BOUNDARY AND LOCATED WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYER
BELT /50 KT LLJ/ WILL SUPPORT AN INTERMITTENT THREAT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF CNTRL TX NWD THROUGH ERN OK AND WRN AR
AND INTO SERN KS AND SWRN MO.

..SMITH.. 12/18/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 171951
SWODY1
SPC AC 171950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ARIZONA.

...SRN GREAT PLAINS...
PRIMARY CHANGE THIS OUTLOOK IS TO REMOVE GENERAL TSTM AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST BEHIND THE LOBE OF FORCED ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE BAND FROM WRN OK TO CNTRL TX. A FEW OF THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN COOL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES...BUT LIMITED MUCAPE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SEVERE
HAIL.

...AZ/NM...
CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD LOWER TSTM PROBABILITIES WITH ONLY MEAGER
BUOYANCY CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER SRN AZ WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS
LIE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY CONTINUE
WITH DEEPER CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS JUST AHEAD OF THE DAMPENING
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.

..GRAMS.. 12/17/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

...SOUTHERN PLAINS
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
STATES.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ARE RESULTING IN A RATHER LARGE AREA OF DESTABILIZATION AND
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW OCCURRING OVER NORTH TX AND THE TX
PANHANDLE.  THIS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO AR THIS EVENING.  LIMITED CAPE
VALUES WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE STORMS.

...AZ/NM...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN CA.  LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AZ/NM.

ELSEWHERE...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 171951
SWODY1
SPC AC 171950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU.
ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ARIZONA.

...SRN GREAT PLAINS...
PRIMARY CHANGE THIS OUTLOOK IS TO REMOVE GENERAL TSTM AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST BEHIND THE LOBE OF FORCED ASCENT AND ASSOCIATED ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE BAND FROM WRN OK TO CNTRL TX. A FEW OF THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN COOL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES...BUT LIMITED MUCAPE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SEVERE
HAIL.

...AZ/NM...
CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD LOWER TSTM PROBABILITIES WITH ONLY MEAGER
BUOYANCY CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER SRN AZ WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS
LIE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY CONTINUE
WITH DEEPER CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS JUST AHEAD OF THE DAMPENING
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.

..GRAMS.. 12/17/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

...SOUTHERN PLAINS
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
STATES.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ARE RESULTING IN A RATHER LARGE AREA OF DESTABILIZATION AND
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW OCCURRING OVER NORTH TX AND THE TX
PANHANDLE.  THIS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO AR THIS EVENING.  LIMITED CAPE
VALUES WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE STORMS.

...AZ/NM...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN CA.  LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AZ/NM.

ELSEWHERE...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY.






000
ACUS02 KWNS 171722
SWODY2
SPC AC 171721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND BRUSH COUNTRY OF TX...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND BRUSH COUNTRY OF TEXAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CONUS ON THU. A LEAD IMPULSE WILL RACE EWD FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC...WHILE AN UPSTREAM TROUGH SHIFTS FROM SRN/BAJA CA
TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TX. IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING E FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU...SURFACE DEW
POINTS AOA 60 DEG F WILL BE CONFINED TO THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN S OF
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD OSCILLATE NWWD INTO
PARTS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY EARLY FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE LATTER
IMPULSE.

...TX...
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE SHOULD BE MODERATE AT MOST WITH THE
THU NIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF THE FRONT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH MID-LEVEL DCVA WILL FOSTER AN EXPANDING CONVECTIVE
PLUME ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN/ERN TX. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
BUOYANCY SHOULD LIE ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ADJACENT TO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND BRUSH COUNTRY. HERE...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL INITIALLY BE RATHER STEEP WITH AN EML EMANATING FROM THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY BE ROOTED FROM
ELEVATED PARCELS...ROBUST CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW
ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL. PREDOMINANT CLUSTER MODE
AND WEAK BUOYANCY SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL RISK.

..GRAMS.. 12/17/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 171722
SWODY2
SPC AC 171721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND BRUSH COUNTRY OF TX...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND BRUSH COUNTRY OF TEXAS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CONUS ON THU. A LEAD IMPULSE WILL RACE EWD FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC...WHILE AN UPSTREAM TROUGH SHIFTS FROM SRN/BAJA CA
TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TX. IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING E FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU...SURFACE DEW
POINTS AOA 60 DEG F WILL BE CONFINED TO THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN S OF
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD OSCILLATE NWWD INTO
PARTS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY EARLY FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE LATTER
IMPULSE.

...TX...
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE SHOULD BE MODERATE AT MOST WITH THE
THU NIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF THE FRONT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH MID-LEVEL DCVA WILL FOSTER AN EXPANDING CONVECTIVE
PLUME ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN/ERN TX. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
BUOYANCY SHOULD LIE ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS BROAD AREA OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ADJACENT TO
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND BRUSH COUNTRY. HERE...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL INITIALLY BE RATHER STEEP WITH AN EML EMANATING FROM THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY BE ROOTED FROM
ELEVATED PARCELS...ROBUST CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW
ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL. PREDOMINANT CLUSTER MODE
AND WEAK BUOYANCY SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL RISK.

..GRAMS.. 12/17/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 171626
SWODY1
SPC AC 171625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
STATES.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ARE RESULTING IN A RATHER LARGE AREA OF DESTABILIZATION AND
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW OCCURRING OVER NORTH TX AND THE TX
PANHANDLE.  THIS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO AR THIS EVENING.  LIMITED CAPE
VALUES WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE STORMS.

...AZ/NM...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN CA.  LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AZ/NM.

ELSEWHERE...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY.

..HART/GLEASON.. 12/17/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 171626
SWODY1
SPC AC 171625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
STATES.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ARE RESULTING IN A RATHER LARGE AREA OF DESTABILIZATION AND
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW OCCURRING OVER NORTH TX AND THE TX
PANHANDLE.  THIS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO AR THIS EVENING.  LIMITED CAPE
VALUES WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE STORMS.

...AZ/NM...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN CA.  LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AZ/NM.

ELSEWHERE...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY.

..HART/GLEASON.. 12/17/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 171626
SWODY1
SPC AC 171625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
STATES.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ARE RESULTING IN A RATHER LARGE AREA OF DESTABILIZATION AND
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW OCCURRING OVER NORTH TX AND THE TX
PANHANDLE.  THIS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF OK AND EVENTUALLY INTO AR THIS EVENING.  LIMITED CAPE
VALUES WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE STORMS.

...AZ/NM...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN CA.  LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROMOTE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AZ/NM.

ELSEWHERE...STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY.

..HART/GLEASON.. 12/17/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 171229
SWODY1
SPC AC 171228

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH DECREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.

...SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE
SWRN CONUS. THE LEAD TROUGH WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
INTO OK THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHILE A TRAILING VORT MAX
CURRENTLY ALONG THE SRN CA COAST WILL PUSH E ACROSS AZ/NM. PERTINENT
FEATURES OF THE SFC PATTERN WILL INCLUDE A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS FAR SRN TX SLOWLY LIFTING N THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE RIDGING
REMAINS ESTABLISHED FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE SERN CONUS.

...SRN PLAINS...
IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FROM THE INITIAL SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...SLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING ACROSS WRN TX.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WAA ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS W TX THIS MORNING.
WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...N/NEWD
ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E ABOVE THE COOL/STABLE NEAR-SFC LAYER
WILL YIELD ELEVATED BUOYANCY FOR PARCELS ROOTED NEAR H85. THIS
BUOYANCY WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR CHARGE SEPARATION IN THE
MIXED-PHASE LAYER...RESULTING IN THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO SPREAD NE THROUGH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
LARGER-SCALE FORCING AND LLJ SHIFTING NE.

...SERN AZ INTO SRN/CNTRL NM...
AS THE SECONDARY VORT MAX PROGRESSES ACROSS THE DESERT SW...COOLING
TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM DIURNAL
HEATING WILL COMBINE TO YIELD WEAK BUOYANCY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. POCKETS OF MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 200-300 J/KG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING...AND
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND SUBSIDENCE/HEIGHT RISES BECOME ESTABLISHED
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.

..PICCA/THOMPSON.. 12/17/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 171229
SWODY1
SPC AC 171228

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH DECREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING.

...SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE
SWRN CONUS. THE LEAD TROUGH WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
INTO OK THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHILE A TRAILING VORT MAX
CURRENTLY ALONG THE SRN CA COAST WILL PUSH E ACROSS AZ/NM. PERTINENT
FEATURES OF THE SFC PATTERN WILL INCLUDE A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS FAR SRN TX SLOWLY LIFTING N THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE RIDGING
REMAINS ESTABLISHED FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE SERN CONUS.

...SRN PLAINS...
IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FROM THE INITIAL SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...SLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING ACROSS WRN TX.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WAA ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS W TX THIS MORNING.
WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...N/NEWD
ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E ABOVE THE COOL/STABLE NEAR-SFC LAYER
WILL YIELD ELEVATED BUOYANCY FOR PARCELS ROOTED NEAR H85. THIS
BUOYANCY WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR CHARGE SEPARATION IN THE
MIXED-PHASE LAYER...RESULTING IN THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO SPREAD NE THROUGH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
LARGER-SCALE FORCING AND LLJ SHIFTING NE.

...SERN AZ INTO SRN/CNTRL NM...
AS THE SECONDARY VORT MAX PROGRESSES ACROSS THE DESERT SW...COOLING
TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM DIURNAL
HEATING WILL COMBINE TO YIELD WEAK BUOYANCY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. POCKETS OF MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 200-300 J/KG WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING...AND
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND SUBSIDENCE/HEIGHT RISES BECOME ESTABLISHED
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.

..PICCA/THOMPSON.. 12/17/2014





000
ACUS11 KWNS 170924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170924
CAZ000-171130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1980
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF COASTAL SRN CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 170924Z - 171130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LIMITED RISK FOR A MARGINALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO --
OR POSSIBLY A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO -- IS EVIDENT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS
OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES/ORANGE COUNTIES IN SRN CA EARLY THIS MORNING.
 WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA DEPICT A SMALL CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AREA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL SRN CA ATTM...COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THIS AREA PER WV LOOP.

DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S...RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL CAPE /A FEW HUNDRED J/KG PER OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES/...THUS FUELING UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE EXTENDING THROUGH THE
MIXED-PHASE /-20 C/ LAYER.

WHILE AREA VWPS DEPICT RELATIVELY MODEST /20 TO 30 KT/ SWLYS THROUGH
H5...BACKED/SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORMS SEEM TO BE
AIDING IN OCCASIONAL WEAK/SHORT-LIVED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IN
STRONGER CELLS -- AS OBSERVED BY KVTX /VENTURA/ WSR-88D.  GIVEN THE
SUSTAINED/WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS...A VERY ISOLATED/LOW-END SEVERE
RISK MAY SPREAD ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WITH THAT
SAID...ANY RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO SHOULD
REMAIN WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS REQUIRED TO CONSIDER WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 12/17/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX...

LAT...LON   33831966 34421979 34531953 34431907 34101833 33781773
            33401780 33231830 33171948 33391973 33831966






000
ACUS11 KWNS 170924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170924
CAZ000-171130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1980
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF COASTAL SRN CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 170924Z - 171130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LIMITED RISK FOR A MARGINALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO --
OR POSSIBLY A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO -- IS EVIDENT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS
OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES/ORANGE COUNTIES IN SRN CA EARLY THIS MORNING.
 WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA DEPICT A SMALL CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AREA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL SRN CA ATTM...COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THIS AREA PER WV LOOP.

DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S...RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL CAPE /A FEW HUNDRED J/KG PER OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES/...THUS FUELING UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE EXTENDING THROUGH THE
MIXED-PHASE /-20 C/ LAYER.

WHILE AREA VWPS DEPICT RELATIVELY MODEST /20 TO 30 KT/ SWLYS THROUGH
H5...BACKED/SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORMS SEEM TO BE
AIDING IN OCCASIONAL WEAK/SHORT-LIVED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IN
STRONGER CELLS -- AS OBSERVED BY KVTX /VENTURA/ WSR-88D.  GIVEN THE
SUSTAINED/WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS...A VERY ISOLATED/LOW-END SEVERE
RISK MAY SPREAD ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WITH THAT
SAID...ANY RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO SHOULD
REMAIN WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS REQUIRED TO CONSIDER WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 12/17/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX...

LAT...LON   33831966 34421979 34531953 34431907 34101833 33781773
            33401780 33231830 33171948 33391973 33831966





000
ACUS11 KWNS 170924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170924
CAZ000-171130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1980
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF COASTAL SRN CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 170924Z - 171130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LIMITED RISK FOR A MARGINALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO --
OR POSSIBLY A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO -- IS EVIDENT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS
OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES/ORANGE COUNTIES IN SRN CA EARLY THIS MORNING.
 WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA DEPICT A SMALL CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AREA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL SRN CA ATTM...COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THIS AREA PER WV LOOP.

DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S...RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL CAPE /A FEW HUNDRED J/KG PER OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES/...THUS FUELING UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE EXTENDING THROUGH THE
MIXED-PHASE /-20 C/ LAYER.

WHILE AREA VWPS DEPICT RELATIVELY MODEST /20 TO 30 KT/ SWLYS THROUGH
H5...BACKED/SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORMS SEEM TO BE
AIDING IN OCCASIONAL WEAK/SHORT-LIVED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IN
STRONGER CELLS -- AS OBSERVED BY KVTX /VENTURA/ WSR-88D.  GIVEN THE
SUSTAINED/WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS...A VERY ISOLATED/LOW-END SEVERE
RISK MAY SPREAD ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WITH THAT
SAID...ANY RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO SHOULD
REMAIN WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS REQUIRED TO CONSIDER WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 12/17/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX...

LAT...LON   33831966 34421979 34531953 34431907 34101833 33781773
            33401780 33231830 33171948 33391973 33831966





000
ACUS11 KWNS 170924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170924
CAZ000-171130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1980
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF COASTAL SRN CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 170924Z - 171130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LIMITED RISK FOR A MARGINALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO --
OR POSSIBLY A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO -- IS EVIDENT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS
OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES/ORANGE COUNTIES IN SRN CA EARLY THIS MORNING.
 WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA DEPICT A SMALL CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AREA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL SRN CA ATTM...COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THIS AREA PER WV LOOP.

DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S...RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL CAPE /A FEW HUNDRED J/KG PER OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES/...THUS FUELING UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE EXTENDING THROUGH THE
MIXED-PHASE /-20 C/ LAYER.

WHILE AREA VWPS DEPICT RELATIVELY MODEST /20 TO 30 KT/ SWLYS THROUGH
H5...BACKED/SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORMS SEEM TO BE
AIDING IN OCCASIONAL WEAK/SHORT-LIVED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IN
STRONGER CELLS -- AS OBSERVED BY KVTX /VENTURA/ WSR-88D.  GIVEN THE
SUSTAINED/WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS...A VERY ISOLATED/LOW-END SEVERE
RISK MAY SPREAD ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WITH THAT
SAID...ANY RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO SHOULD
REMAIN WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS REQUIRED TO CONSIDER WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 12/17/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX...

LAT...LON   33831966 34421979 34531953 34431907 34101833 33781773
            33401780 33231830 33171948 33391973 33831966





000
ACUS11 KWNS 170924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170924
CAZ000-171130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1980
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF COASTAL SRN CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 170924Z - 171130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LIMITED RISK FOR A MARGINALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO --
OR POSSIBLY A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO -- IS EVIDENT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS
OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES/ORANGE COUNTIES IN SRN CA EARLY THIS MORNING.
 WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA DEPICT A SMALL CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AREA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL SRN CA ATTM...COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THIS AREA PER WV LOOP.

DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S...RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL CAPE /A FEW HUNDRED J/KG PER OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES/...THUS FUELING UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE EXTENDING THROUGH THE
MIXED-PHASE /-20 C/ LAYER.

WHILE AREA VWPS DEPICT RELATIVELY MODEST /20 TO 30 KT/ SWLYS THROUGH
H5...BACKED/SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORMS SEEM TO BE
AIDING IN OCCASIONAL WEAK/SHORT-LIVED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IN
STRONGER CELLS -- AS OBSERVED BY KVTX /VENTURA/ WSR-88D.  GIVEN THE
SUSTAINED/WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS...A VERY ISOLATED/LOW-END SEVERE
RISK MAY SPREAD ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WITH THAT
SAID...ANY RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO SHOULD
REMAIN WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS REQUIRED TO CONSIDER WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 12/17/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX...

LAT...LON   33831966 34421979 34531953 34431907 34101833 33781773
            33401780 33231830 33171948 33391973 33831966





000
ACUS11 KWNS 170924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170924
CAZ000-171130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1980
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF COASTAL SRN CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 170924Z - 171130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LIMITED RISK FOR A MARGINALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO --
OR POSSIBLY A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO -- IS EVIDENT OVER COASTAL PORTIONS
OF VENTURA/LOS ANGELES/ORANGE COUNTIES IN SRN CA EARLY THIS MORNING.
 WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA DEPICT A SMALL CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE CHANNEL ISLANDS AREA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL SRN CA ATTM...COINCIDENT WITH A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THIS AREA PER WV LOOP.

DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOW 50S...RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL CAPE /A FEW HUNDRED J/KG PER OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES/...THUS FUELING UPDRAFTS WHICH ARE EXTENDING THROUGH THE
MIXED-PHASE /-20 C/ LAYER.

WHILE AREA VWPS DEPICT RELATIVELY MODEST /20 TO 30 KT/ SWLYS THROUGH
H5...BACKED/SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORMS SEEM TO BE
AIDING IN OCCASIONAL WEAK/SHORT-LIVED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IN
STRONGER CELLS -- AS OBSERVED BY KVTX /VENTURA/ WSR-88D.  GIVEN THE
SUSTAINED/WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS...A VERY ISOLATED/LOW-END SEVERE
RISK MAY SPREAD ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  WITH THAT
SAID...ANY RISK FOR STRONG WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO SHOULD
REMAIN WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS REQUIRED TO CONSIDER WW ISSUANCE.

..GOSS/THOMPSON.. 12/17/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX...

LAT...LON   33831966 34421979 34531953 34431907 34101833 33781773
            33401780 33231830 33171948 33391973 33831966






000
ACUS03 KWNS 170828
SWODY3
SPC AC 170827

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEAR THE GULF COAST FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT....

...SUMMARY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THESE
COULD BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

...SYNOPSIS/GULF COAST STATES...
ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED REGIME
...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA.  SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE
SPLIT BELT OF WESTERLIES SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...INCLUDING ONE
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND
REGION...THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY.

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE PROBABLY WILL SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG A REMNANT SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...INTO THE
LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY/POTENTIALLY COLD
BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY TO BE PRESENT TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IT APPEARS
INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THAT THIS WAVE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN WEAK.
NO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER IMPULSE IS
EXPECTED...AND...WITH TIME...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING IS GENERALLY
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH...AWAY FROM THE SURFACE
FRONT.  AS THIS OCCURS...THOUGH...AFTER MIGRATING ACROSS MID/UPPER
TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MAY TRACK INLAND OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST.

WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST REGION...AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAINING RELATIVELY
MODEST...ANY DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE WEAK.  HOWEVER...WITH EVEN
WEAK WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...THE ENVIRONMENT
MAY BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE
CONVECTION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT...WITH WIND FIELDS CHARACTERIZED BY 30-40 KT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW VEERING TO WESTERLY AT 50-70 KT
AROUND 500 MB.

..KERR.. 12/17/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 170828
SWODY3
SPC AC 170827

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEAR THE GULF COAST FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT....

...SUMMARY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THESE
COULD BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

...SYNOPSIS/GULF COAST STATES...
ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED REGIME
...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA.  SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE
SPLIT BELT OF WESTERLIES SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...INCLUDING ONE
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND
REGION...THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY.

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE PROBABLY WILL SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG A REMNANT SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...INTO THE
LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY/POTENTIALLY COLD
BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY TO BE PRESENT TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IT APPEARS
INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THAT THIS WAVE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN WEAK.
NO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER IMPULSE IS
EXPECTED...AND...WITH TIME...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING IS GENERALLY
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH...AWAY FROM THE SURFACE
FRONT.  AS THIS OCCURS...THOUGH...AFTER MIGRATING ACROSS MID/UPPER
TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MAY TRACK INLAND OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST.

WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST REGION...AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAINING RELATIVELY
MODEST...ANY DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE WEAK.  HOWEVER...WITH EVEN
WEAK WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...THE ENVIRONMENT
MAY BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE
CONVECTION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT...WITH WIND FIELDS CHARACTERIZED BY 30-40 KT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW VEERING TO WESTERLY AT 50-70 KT
AROUND 500 MB.

..KERR.. 12/17/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 170828
SWODY3
SPC AC 170827

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEAR THE GULF COAST FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT....

...SUMMARY...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THESE
COULD BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

...SYNOPSIS/GULF COAST STATES...
ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED REGIME
...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA.  SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE
SPLIT BELT OF WESTERLIES SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...INCLUDING ONE
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND
REGION...THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY.

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE PROBABLY WILL SUPPORT A
DEVELOPING WAVE ALONG A REMNANT SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...INTO THE
LOWER RIO GRAND VALLEY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DRY/POTENTIALLY COLD
BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY TO BE PRESENT TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IT APPEARS
INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THAT THIS WAVE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN WEAK.
NO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER IMPULSE IS
EXPECTED...AND...WITH TIME...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING IS GENERALLY
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH...AWAY FROM THE SURFACE
FRONT.  AS THIS OCCURS...THOUGH...AFTER MIGRATING ACROSS MID/UPPER
TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MAY TRACK INLAND OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST.

WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST REGION...AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAINING RELATIVELY
MODEST...ANY DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE WEAK.  HOWEVER...WITH EVEN
WEAK WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...THE ENVIRONMENT
MAY BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE
CONVECTION...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT...WITH WIND FIELDS CHARACTERIZED BY 30-40 KT
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW VEERING TO WESTERLY AT 50-70 KT
AROUND 500 MB.

..KERR.. 12/17/2014





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