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000
ACUS01 KWNS 130026
SWODY1
SPC AC 130024

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COAST.

...01Z UPDATE...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA.
OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CONUS.

..LEITMAN.. 02/13/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 121941
SWODY1
SPC AC 121940

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON.

...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

..KERR.. 02/12/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0933 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT. ON WRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE...TWO-PART SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW LOCATED OFF THE WA CST BETWEEN 130 AND 140W WILL DEAMPLIFY AS
ITS CONTINUES GENERALLY E INTO WA/ORE. POLAR AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN
DOMINATE THE LWR LVLS E OF THE RCKYS...WITH MODEST ONSHORE FLOW
CONFINED TO THE PAC NW.

...WRN WA TODAY INTO TNGT...
LEAD PORTION OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SHEARING NE ACROSS FAR WRN WA AND WRN BC LATER TODAY.
FEEBLE...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE IN THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND...BUT
APPRECIABLE THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED.

A SOMEWHAT GREATER CHANCE FOR ISOLD THUNDER WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY
INTO TNGT AS ASCENT/MID-LVL COOLING INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SECOND PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. THE LATTER DISTURBANCE
IS NEARING 130W ATTM...AND SHOULD SWEEP INLAND LATER TODAY.
ATTENDANT STEEPENING OF LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF EXISTING CONVECTION TO YIELD
THUNDER.

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 121941
SWODY1
SPC AC 121940

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON.

...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

..KERR.. 02/12/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0933 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT. ON WRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE...TWO-PART SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW LOCATED OFF THE WA CST BETWEEN 130 AND 140W WILL DEAMPLIFY AS
ITS CONTINUES GENERALLY E INTO WA/ORE. POLAR AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN
DOMINATE THE LWR LVLS E OF THE RCKYS...WITH MODEST ONSHORE FLOW
CONFINED TO THE PAC NW.

...WRN WA TODAY INTO TNGT...
LEAD PORTION OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SHEARING NE ACROSS FAR WRN WA AND WRN BC LATER TODAY.
FEEBLE...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE IN THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND...BUT
APPRECIABLE THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED.

A SOMEWHAT GREATER CHANCE FOR ISOLD THUNDER WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY
INTO TNGT AS ASCENT/MID-LVL COOLING INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SECOND PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. THE LATTER DISTURBANCE
IS NEARING 130W ATTM...AND SHOULD SWEEP INLAND LATER TODAY.
ATTENDANT STEEPENING OF LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF EXISTING CONVECTION TO YIELD
THUNDER.

$$




000
ACUS01 KWNS 121941
SWODY1
SPC AC 121940

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON.

...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

..KERR.. 02/12/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0933 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT. ON WRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE...TWO-PART SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW LOCATED OFF THE WA CST BETWEEN 130 AND 140W WILL DEAMPLIFY AS
ITS CONTINUES GENERALLY E INTO WA/ORE. POLAR AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN
DOMINATE THE LWR LVLS E OF THE RCKYS...WITH MODEST ONSHORE FLOW
CONFINED TO THE PAC NW.

...WRN WA TODAY INTO TNGT...
LEAD PORTION OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SHEARING NE ACROSS FAR WRN WA AND WRN BC LATER TODAY.
FEEBLE...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE IN THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND...BUT
APPRECIABLE THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED.

A SOMEWHAT GREATER CHANCE FOR ISOLD THUNDER WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY
INTO TNGT AS ASCENT/MID-LVL COOLING INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SECOND PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. THE LATTER DISTURBANCE
IS NEARING 130W ATTM...AND SHOULD SWEEP INLAND LATER TODAY.
ATTENDANT STEEPENING OF LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF EXISTING CONVECTION TO YIELD
THUNDER.

$$





000
ACUS02 KWNS 121646
SWODY2
SPC AC 121645

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSION INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA
BY 12Z SUNDAY.  ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND DEEP EMBEDDED
CLOSED LOW OF ARCTIC ORIGINS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING AND
GRADUALLY TURNING EAST OF NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  IN THEIR
WAKE...A GENERAL WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S...DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING TOWARD THE CANADIAN/U.S. PACIFIC COAST.  WITHIN THIS
REGIME...MODELS DO INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE WILL DIG EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERALLY DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS NOW
PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL COOLING PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY WHERE AIDED BY COUPLED FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH OROGRAPHY AND THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES COULD BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO CHARGE
SEPARATION...AND LIGHTNING...NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ABSAROKA AND
BIG HORN RANGES OF MONTANA/WYOMING...POSSIBLY INTO THE BLACK HILLS.
AT THIS TIME...THOUGH...PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW
THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM
AREA.

..KERR.. 02/12/2016

$$





000
ACUS02 KWNS 121646
SWODY2
SPC AC 121645

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSION INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA
BY 12Z SUNDAY.  ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND DEEP EMBEDDED
CLOSED LOW OF ARCTIC ORIGINS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING AND
GRADUALLY TURNING EAST OF NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  IN THEIR
WAKE...A GENERAL WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S...DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING TOWARD THE CANADIAN/U.S. PACIFIC COAST.  WITHIN THIS
REGIME...MODELS DO INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE WILL DIG EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERALLY DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS NOW
PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL COOLING PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY WHERE AIDED BY COUPLED FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH OROGRAPHY AND THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES COULD BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO CHARGE
SEPARATION...AND LIGHTNING...NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ABSAROKA AND
BIG HORN RANGES OF MONTANA/WYOMING...POSSIBLY INTO THE BLACK HILLS.
AT THIS TIME...THOUGH...PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW
THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM
AREA.

..KERR.. 02/12/2016

$$





000
ACUS02 KWNS 121646
SWODY2
SPC AC 121645

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE SHALLOW LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSION INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY 12Z SATURDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA
BY 12Z SUNDAY.  ITS ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND DEEP EMBEDDED
CLOSED LOW OF ARCTIC ORIGINS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING AND
GRADUALLY TURNING EAST OF NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.  IN THEIR
WAKE...A GENERAL WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S...DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING TOWARD THE CANADIAN/U.S. PACIFIC COAST.  WITHIN THIS
REGIME...MODELS DO INDICATE THAT A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE WILL DIG EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GENERALLY DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS NOW
PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL COOLING PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY WHERE AIDED BY COUPLED FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH OROGRAPHY AND THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES COULD BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO CHARGE
SEPARATION...AND LIGHTNING...NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ABSAROKA AND
BIG HORN RANGES OF MONTANA/WYOMING...POSSIBLY INTO THE BLACK HILLS.
AT THIS TIME...THOUGH...PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW
THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM
AREA.

..KERR.. 02/12/2016

$$




000
ACUS01 KWNS 121534
SWODY1
SPC AC 121533

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0933 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT. ON WRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE...TWO-PART SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW LOCATED OFF THE WA CST BETWEEN 130 AND 140W WILL DEAMPLIFY AS
ITS CONTINUES GENERALLY E INTO WA/ORE. POLAR AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN
DOMINATE THE LWR LVLS E OF THE RCKYS...WITH MODEST ONSHORE FLOW
CONFINED TO THE PAC NW.

...WRN WA TODAY INTO TNGT...
LEAD PORTION OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SHEARING NE ACROSS FAR WRN WA AND WRN BC LATER TODAY.
FEEBLE...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE IN THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND...BUT
APPRECIABLE THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED.

A SOMEWHAT GREATER CHANCE FOR ISOLD THUNDER WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY
INTO TNGT AS ASCENT/MID-LVL COOLING INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SECOND PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. THE LATTER DISTURBANCE
IS NEARING 130W ATTM...AND SHOULD SWEEP INLAND LATER TODAY.
ATTENDANT STEEPENING OF LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF EXISTING CONVECTION TO YIELD
THUNDER.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 02/12/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 121258
SWODY1
SPC AC 121256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON.

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-AIR PATTERN FCST ACROSS CONUS THIS PERIOD...
DOMINATED BY ERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW
FROM GREAT PAINS TO ATLC COAST AND BEYOND.  RIDGING CURRENTLY
LOCATED FROM NWRN MEX TO NWRN CANADA WILL BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT AS
NERN PAC SHORTWAVES MOVE ASHORE FROM AK TO NWRN CONUS.  ONE OF THOSE
-- NOW OFFSHORE PAC NW AND BC -- WILL MOVE ASHORE THROUGH PERIOD IN
PIECEMEAL FASHION AS SEVERAL ASSOCIATED MAXIMA AND BANNERS OF
VORTICITY PIVOT CYCLONICALLY THROUGH ACCOMPANYING FLOW FIELD.
PRIMARY/FINAL ASSOCIATED VORTICITY FEATURE SHOULD MOVE INLAND
BETWEEN 06-09Z.

...WRN WA...
IN GENERAL...COLD AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THIS REGION...
AMIDST BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  WITH THAT REGIME...PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF MAIN
VORTICITY LOBE...SHOTS OF DCVA ALOFT AND RELATED DESTABILIZATION/
COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EPISODIC POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS THIS AREA.  BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
EARLY-DAY/LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL BAND...ELEVATED IN NATURE BASED ON FCST
SOUNDINGS WITH 50-250 J/KG MUCAPE ROOTED ABOVE 850-MB LEVEL AND
STRADDLING -20C ISOTHERM.  HOWEVER THIS IS MORE CONDITIONAL THAN
LATER REGIME...GIVEN SOME CINH NOTED IN 12Z RAOBS AROUND 700 MB AND
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STRENGTH OF LIFT INTO OPTIMAL ICING LAYERS FOR
LTG GENERATION.

GREATER THUNDER POTENTIAL SHOULD ARRIVE WITH POST-FRONTAL STEEPENING
OF LAPSE RATES THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF SFC-500-MB LAYER...PRECEDING
MAIN VORTICITY PERTURBATION...AND RESULTING IN UNSTABLE PARCELS
ROOTED IN PAC MARINE LAYER.  ASSOCIATED SBCAPE ALSO MAY REACH 50-250
J/KG WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION.

ELSEWHERE...AIR MASS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE TO SUPPORT
TSTMS.

..EDWARDS/COHEN.. 02/12/2016

$$





000
ACUS03 KWNS 120753
SWODY3
SPC AC 120751

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT OVER A
PORTION OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...

GENERAL BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL STATES...RESULTING FROM A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CREST WRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE
AND CONTINUE SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH NRN TX
IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT
SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE LOW OVER NERN TX SWWD THROUGH SWRN TX WITH A
WARM FRONT STRETCHING EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH NRN LA AND SRN MS.

...SERN OK...ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS A SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE NWD
TRANSPORT OF MODIFIED CP AIR /MID-UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS/ INTO ERN TX
AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE
RATES EXPANDS EWD THROUGH THE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT. EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
EVOLVING LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME MAY EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE
TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH INTO
A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY WARM SECTOR. AT THIS TIME IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS.

..DIAL.. 02/12/2016

$$





000
ACUS02 KWNS 120557
SWODY2
SPC AC 120556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE AREA OF CP HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
CNTRL AND ERN U.S. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF COAST
AND ATLANTIC SEABOARD...RESULTING IN STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.

..DIAL.. 02/12/2016

$$





000
ACUS02 KWNS 120557
SWODY2
SPC AC 120556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE AREA OF CP HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
CNTRL AND ERN U.S. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF COAST
AND ATLANTIC SEABOARD...RESULTING IN STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.

..DIAL.. 02/12/2016

$$





000
ACUS02 KWNS 120557
SWODY2
SPC AC 120556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE AREA OF CP HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
CNTRL AND ERN U.S. WITH OFFSHORE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF COAST
AND ATLANTIC SEABOARD...RESULTING IN STABLE CONDITIONS INLAND.

..DIAL.. 02/12/2016

$$




000
ACUS01 KWNS 120536
SWODY1
SPC AC 120534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON.

...SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST AND TRACKS EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
WA IN MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

..LEITMAN/ROGERS.. 02/12/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 120536
SWODY1
SPC AC 120534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON.

...SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST AND TRACKS EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
WA IN MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

..LEITMAN/ROGERS.. 02/12/2016

$$




000
ACUS01 KWNS 120536
SWODY1
SPC AC 120534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON.

...SYNOPSIS...

A BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS. ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES...AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL DEAMPLIFY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST AND TRACKS EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
WA IN MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

..LEITMAN/ROGERS.. 02/12/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 120049
SWODY1
SPC AC 120047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH
TONIGHT.

...UPDATE 01Z...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT...NO CHANGES NEEDED.

..LEITMAN.. 02/12/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 120049
SWODY1
SPC AC 120047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH
TONIGHT.

...UPDATE 01Z...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT...NO CHANGES NEEDED.

..LEITMAN.. 02/12/2016

$$




000
ACUS01 KWNS 120049
SWODY1
SPC AC 120047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH
TONIGHT.

...UPDATE 01Z...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT...NO CHANGES NEEDED.

..LEITMAN.. 02/12/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 111931
SWODY1
SPC AC 111929

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

..KERR.. 02/11/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

A COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS TODAY...PRECLUDING
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

$$





000
ACUS02 KWNS 111655
SWODY2
SPC AC 111654

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE U.S. FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE ARCTIC LATITUDES APPEARS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY LATER TODAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO THEN GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...MAINTAINING AMPLIFIED LARGER SCALE
TROUGHING NOW PRESENT ACROSS AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  IN
LOWER LEVELS...THIS IS FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSION ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF GENERALLY
DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS.

WEST OF THE ROCKIES...UPPER TROUGHING NOW APPROACHING THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS FORECAST TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY FRAGMENTED AS IT ADVANCES INLAND...THROUGH LARGER-SCALE
UPPER RIDGING.  AT LEAST A COUPLE OF IMPULSES WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORMER FEATURE APPEAR LIKELY TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION...MAINLY ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES.

...WEST OF NORTHERN CASCADES...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...
SURFACE HEATING BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL COOLING /INCLUDING TO -26 TO
-30C AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASING LOW-TOPPED CELLULAR CONVECTION DURING THE 21-00Z TIME
FRAME...WHEN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE TO CHARGE SEPARATION...AND PERHAPS
SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  ADDITIONAL WEAK THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN INLAND PROGRESSING
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR
IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON COASTAL AREAS.

..KERR.. 02/11/2016

$$





000
ACUS02 KWNS 111655
SWODY2
SPC AC 111654

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE U.S. FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE ARCTIC LATITUDES APPEARS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY LATER TODAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO THEN GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...MAINTAINING AMPLIFIED LARGER SCALE
TROUGHING NOW PRESENT ACROSS AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  IN
LOWER LEVELS...THIS IS FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSION ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF GENERALLY
DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS.

WEST OF THE ROCKIES...UPPER TROUGHING NOW APPROACHING THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS FORECAST TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY FRAGMENTED AS IT ADVANCES INLAND...THROUGH LARGER-SCALE
UPPER RIDGING.  AT LEAST A COUPLE OF IMPULSES WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORMER FEATURE APPEAR LIKELY TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION...MAINLY ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES.

...WEST OF NORTHERN CASCADES...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...
SURFACE HEATING BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL COOLING /INCLUDING TO -26 TO
-30C AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASING LOW-TOPPED CELLULAR CONVECTION DURING THE 21-00Z TIME
FRAME...WHEN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE TO CHARGE SEPARATION...AND PERHAPS
SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  ADDITIONAL WEAK THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN INLAND PROGRESSING
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR
IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON COASTAL AREAS.

..KERR.. 02/11/2016

$$





000
ACUS02 KWNS 111655
SWODY2
SPC AC 111654

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE U.S. FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE ARCTIC LATITUDES APPEARS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY LATER TODAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO THEN GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...MAINTAINING AMPLIFIED LARGER SCALE
TROUGHING NOW PRESENT ACROSS AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  IN
LOWER LEVELS...THIS IS FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT COLD INTRUSION ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF GENERALLY
DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS.

WEST OF THE ROCKIES...UPPER TROUGHING NOW APPROACHING THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS FORECAST TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY FRAGMENTED AS IT ADVANCES INLAND...THROUGH LARGER-SCALE
UPPER RIDGING.  AT LEAST A COUPLE OF IMPULSES WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORMER FEATURE APPEAR LIKELY TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION...MAINLY ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES.

...WEST OF NORTHERN CASCADES...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...
SURFACE HEATING BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL COOLING /INCLUDING TO -26 TO
-30C AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASING LOW-TOPPED CELLULAR CONVECTION DURING THE 21-00Z TIME
FRAME...WHEN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE TO CHARGE SEPARATION...AND PERHAPS
SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  ADDITIONAL WEAK THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN INLAND PROGRESSING
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR
IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON COASTAL AREAS.

..KERR.. 02/11/2016

$$




000
ACUS01 KWNS 111620
SWODY1
SPC AC 111618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
TODAY.

A COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS TODAY...PRECLUDING
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

..HART/GLEASON.. 02/11/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 111620
SWODY1
SPC AC 111618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1018 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
TODAY.

A COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS TODAY...PRECLUDING
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

..HART/GLEASON.. 02/11/2016

$$




000
ACUS01 KWNS 111234
SWODY1
SPC AC 111232

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
TODAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  AN EMBEDDED
SPEED MAX WILL PROGRESS SEWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING
TO THE TN VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  PREVIOUS FRONTAL INTRUSIONS AND
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIMIT AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AND MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE GULF COAST...SUCH THAT
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SPEED MAX
AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST EARLY FRIDAY...BUT
MEAGER BUOYANCY SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.

..THOMPSON/COOK.. 02/11/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 111234
SWODY1
SPC AC 111232

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
TODAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  AN EMBEDDED
SPEED MAX WILL PROGRESS SEWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING
TO THE TN VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  PREVIOUS FRONTAL INTRUSIONS AND
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIMIT AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AND MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE GULF COAST...SUCH THAT
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SPEED MAX
AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST EARLY FRIDAY...BUT
MEAGER BUOYANCY SUGGESTS THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.

..THOMPSON/COOK.. 02/11/2016

$$





000
ACUS03 KWNS 110819
SWODY3
SPC AC 110817

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM THE GREAT PLAINS EWD TO THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. AT THE SFC...A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY KEEPING
A DRY AIRMASS LOCATED OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. FOR THIS
REASON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS
ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 02/11/2016

$$





000
ACUS02 KWNS 110646
SWODY2
SPC AC 110645

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES ON
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
EXTENDING SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES EXTENDING EWD TO THE SERN
ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHERE SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE FROM
SC EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHERE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY OCCUR ON FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 02/11/2016

$$





000
ACUS02 KWNS 110646
SWODY2
SPC AC 110645

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES ON
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
EXTENDING SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES EXTENDING EWD TO THE SERN
ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHERE SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE FROM
SC EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHERE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY OCCUR ON FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 02/11/2016

$$




000
ACUS02 KWNS 110646
SWODY2
SPC AC 110645

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES ON
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
EXTENDING SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES EXTENDING EWD TO THE SERN
ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHERE SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE FROM
SC EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHERE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY OCCUR ON FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 02/11/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 110449
SWODY1
SPC AC 110447

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
TODAY.

...SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY...WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE
WESTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...WIDESPREAD HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

..LEITMAN/ROGERS.. 02/11/2016

$$




000
ACUS01 KWNS 110449
SWODY1
SPC AC 110447

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
TODAY.

...SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY...WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE
WESTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...WIDESPREAD HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

..LEITMAN/ROGERS.. 02/11/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 110449
SWODY1
SPC AC 110447

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
TODAY.

...SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY...WHILE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE ENCOMPASSES THE
WESTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE...WIDESPREAD HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

..LEITMAN/ROGERS.. 02/11/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 110025
SWODY1
SPC AC 110024

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

...01Z UPDATE...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

..LEITMAN.. 02/11/2016

$$




000
ACUS01 KWNS 110025
SWODY1
SPC AC 110024

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

...01Z UPDATE...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

..LEITMAN.. 02/11/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 101953
SWODY1
SPC AC 101952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

...20Z UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO PRIOR FORECAST.

..GUYER.. 02/10/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0952 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY.

$$





000
ACUS02 KWNS 101731
SWODY2
SPC AC 101730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GENERAL PREVALENCE OF DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PRECLUDE A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO COULD OCCUR OFF THE COAST OF WA WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA
LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT INLAND/NEAR-COASTAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
CURRENTLY APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE.

..GUYER.. 02/10/2016

$$





000
ACUS02 KWNS 101731
SWODY2
SPC AC 101730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GENERAL PREVALENCE OF DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PRECLUDE A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO COULD OCCUR OFF THE COAST OF WA WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA
LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT INLAND/NEAR-COASTAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
CURRENTLY APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE.

..GUYER.. 02/10/2016

$$




000
ACUS02 KWNS 101731
SWODY2
SPC AC 101730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GENERAL PREVALENCE OF DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PRECLUDE A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO COULD OCCUR OFF THE COAST OF WA WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA
LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT INLAND/NEAR-COASTAL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
CURRENTLY APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE.

..GUYER.. 02/10/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 101554
SWODY1
SPC AC 101552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0952 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY.

..HART/GLEASON.. 02/10/2016

$$




000
ACUS01 KWNS 101554
SWODY1
SPC AC 101552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0952 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY.

..HART/GLEASON.. 02/10/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 101554
SWODY1
SPC AC 101552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0952 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY.

..HART/GLEASON.. 02/10/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 101251
SWODY1
SPC AC 101250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF A DEEP ERN TROUGH AND WRN RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH COLD AND/OR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CONUS.  A MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL
BRUSH THE PAC NW COAST...BUT BUOYANCY WILL BE TOO MEAGER FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.  LIKEWISE...COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND LESS THAN OPTIMAL TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES SUGGEST THAT LIGHTNING IS UNLIKELY IN ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

..THOMPSON/COOK.. 02/10/2016

$$





000
ACUS03 KWNS 100809
SWODY3
SPC AC 100808

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT LIKELY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES ON
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN STATES ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES EXTENDING
EWD TO THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. SOME CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM NEAR THE COAST OF SC EXTENDING OFFSHORE DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES ON FRIDAY. THUNDER COVERAGE IN THESE TWO AREAS ON
FRIDAY APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW THE 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD.

..BROYLES.. 02/10/2016

$$





000
ACUS02 KWNS 100656
SWODY2
SPC AC 100655

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SSEWD TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MS
VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST ON
THURSDAY FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SEWD TO THE CAROLINAS AND SSWWD TO
FLORIDA AND THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL IMPEDE MOISTURE RETURN
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SWD INTO THE SRN U.S. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CONUS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 02/10/2016

$$





000
ACUS02 KWNS 100656
SWODY2
SPC AC 100655

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SSEWD TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MS
VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST ON
THURSDAY FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SEWD TO THE CAROLINAS AND SSWWD TO
FLORIDA AND THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL IMPEDE MOISTURE RETURN
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SWD INTO THE SRN U.S. THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CONUS THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 02/10/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 100542
SWODY1
SPC AC 100541

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST TUE FEB 09 2016

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE UNITED STATES FOR TODAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...

IN THE MID LEVELS...A HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...WITH AN
ERN-CONUS TROUGH AND A WRN-CONUS RIDGE. AT THE SFC...COOL/COLD
CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE N-CNTRL/CNTRL/ERN
CONUS...WITH GENERALLY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS. AN ELONGATED SPEED MAX
WILL ADVANCE THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW PERIPHERAL TO THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...AND WILL REINFORCE SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR ALOFT FOR
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DEARTH OF BUOYANCY ACROSS THE CONUS PRECLUDES
GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM DELINEATION.

..COHEN.. 02/10/2016

$$




000
ACUS01 KWNS 100542
SWODY1
SPC AC 100541

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST TUE FEB 09 2016

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE UNITED STATES FOR TODAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...

IN THE MID LEVELS...A HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...WITH AN
ERN-CONUS TROUGH AND A WRN-CONUS RIDGE. AT THE SFC...COOL/COLD
CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE N-CNTRL/CNTRL/ERN
CONUS...WITH GENERALLY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS. AN ELONGATED SPEED MAX
WILL ADVANCE THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW PERIPHERAL TO THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...AND WILL REINFORCE SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR ALOFT FOR
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DEARTH OF BUOYANCY ACROSS THE CONUS PRECLUDES
GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM DELINEATION.

..COHEN.. 02/10/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 100542
SWODY1
SPC AC 100541

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST TUE FEB 09 2016

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE UNITED STATES FOR TODAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...

IN THE MID LEVELS...A HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...WITH AN
ERN-CONUS TROUGH AND A WRN-CONUS RIDGE. AT THE SFC...COOL/COLD
CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE N-CNTRL/CNTRL/ERN
CONUS...WITH GENERALLY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS. AN ELONGATED SPEED MAX
WILL ADVANCE THROUGH CYCLONIC FLOW PERIPHERAL TO THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...AND WILL REINFORCE SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR ALOFT FOR
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION OVER THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DEARTH OF BUOYANCY ACROSS THE CONUS PRECLUDES
GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM DELINEATION.

..COHEN.. 02/10/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 100050
SWODY1
SPC AC 100049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CST TUE FEB 09 2016

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...

RAOBS AT 00Z SAMPLE DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CONUS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS BROADLY CYCLONIC MIDLEVEL FLOW AND COOL/COLD CONDITIONS
COVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS. THE DEARTH OF BUOYANCY AND
PAUCITY OF TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE TSTMS ACROSS THE
CONUS TONIGHT.

..COHEN.. 02/10/2016

$$





000
ACUS01 KWNS 100050
SWODY1
SPC AC 100049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CST TUE FEB 09 2016

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...

RAOBS AT 00Z SAMPLE DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CONUS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS BROADLY CYCLONIC MIDLEVEL FLOW AND COOL/COLD CONDITIONS
COVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS. THE DEARTH OF BUOYANCY AND
PAUCITY OF TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE TSTMS ACROSS THE
CONUS TONIGHT.

..COHEN.. 02/10/2016

$$




000
ACUS01 KWNS 100050
SWODY1
SPC AC 100049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CST TUE FEB 09 2016

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...

RAOBS AT 00Z SAMPLE DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CONUS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS BROADLY CYCLONIC MIDLEVEL FLOW AND COOL/COLD CONDITIONS
COVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS. THE DEARTH OF BUOYANCY AND
PAUCITY OF TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE TSTMS ACROSS THE
CONUS TONIGHT.

..COHEN.. 02/10/2016

$$





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