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000
ACUS03 KWNS 010831
SWODY3
SPC AC 010830

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT OCCUR OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD...LOW-AMPLITUDE
NRN-STREAM TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY AND AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN
MEXICO AND REACH SRN TEXAS SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.

...SRN TX...

A LARGE AREA OF CP SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ERN U.S.
SWWD INTO ERN AND SRN TX. A WEAK SLY LLJ IS FORECAST OVER SRN TEXAS
DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION ABOVE THE SFC RIDGE AXIS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS FROM SRN THROUGH SERN TX. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY UNDERGO
AT LEAST MODEST STEEPENING WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND
THIS MIGHT EVENTUALLY SUPPORT AN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

..DIAL.. 02/01/2015





000
ACUS03 KWNS 010831
SWODY3
SPC AC 010830

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT OCCUR OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD...LOW-AMPLITUDE
NRN-STREAM TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY AND AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
CUTOFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN
MEXICO AND REACH SRN TEXAS SOMETIME LATER TUESDAY NIGHT.

...SRN TX...

A LARGE AREA OF CP SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE ERN U.S.
SWWD INTO ERN AND SRN TX. A WEAK SLY LLJ IS FORECAST OVER SRN TEXAS
DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION ABOVE THE SFC RIDGE AXIS.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS FROM SRN THROUGH SERN TX. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY UNDERGO
AT LEAST MODEST STEEPENING WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND
THIS MIGHT EVENTUALLY SUPPORT AN ELEVATED CONVECTIVE LAYER DEEP
ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

..DIAL.. 02/01/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 010600
SWODY1
SPC AC 010558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN TX EWD TO
PARTS OF WRN AL...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM PARTS
OF TEXAS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
COAST STATES ON SUNDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FIELD ALOFT IS PROGGED ACROSS THE U.S.
SUNDAY...AS A TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. STRENGTHENS AS
IT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS WITH
TIME.  AS THIS TROUGH ADVANCES...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY/MIDWEST WITH TIME...REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN
THE PERIOD.  A TRAILING COLD FRONT -- PROGGED TO BE SWEEPING ACROSS
THE TN/LOWER MS/SABINE RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL FOCUS AN EWD-MOVING BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

...PARTS OF E TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO WRN AL...
A PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
50S INLAND AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE GULF COAST/ WILL CONTINUE
STREAMING NWD AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS
THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.  DIURNAL HEATING BOOSTING
SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AND LINEAR FORCING ALONG
THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN/LOW-TOPPED LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN A ZONE FROM PARTS OF
SERN TX EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN MS/WRN AL.  THOUGH MODEST AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...ROUGHLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW INCREASING WITH HEIGHT TO ROUGHLY 50 KTS
AT MID LEVELS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A FEW STRONGER/EMBEDDED
CELLS TO EVOLVE WITHIN THE LINE.  GIVEN RELATIVELY FAST STORM
MOTION...A FEW STRONGER/DAMAGING GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE -- THUS
WARRANTING INCLUSION OF 5% WIND PROBABILITY/MARGINAL CATEGORICAL
RISK AREA THIS FORECAST -- MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME BEFORE STORMS DIURNALLY WEAKEN AFTER DARK.

..GOSS.. 02/01/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 010600
SWODY1
SPC AC 010558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN TX EWD TO
PARTS OF WRN AL...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM PARTS
OF TEXAS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
COAST STATES ON SUNDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FIELD ALOFT IS PROGGED ACROSS THE U.S.
SUNDAY...AS A TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. STRENGTHENS AS
IT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS WITH
TIME.  AS THIS TROUGH ADVANCES...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY/MIDWEST WITH TIME...REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN
THE PERIOD.  A TRAILING COLD FRONT -- PROGGED TO BE SWEEPING ACROSS
THE TN/LOWER MS/SABINE RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL FOCUS AN EWD-MOVING BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

...PARTS OF E TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO WRN AL...
A PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
50S INLAND AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE GULF COAST/ WILL CONTINUE
STREAMING NWD AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS
THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.  DIURNAL HEATING BOOSTING
SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AND LINEAR FORCING ALONG
THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN/LOW-TOPPED LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN A ZONE FROM PARTS OF
SERN TX EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN MS/WRN AL.  THOUGH MODEST AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...ROUGHLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW INCREASING WITH HEIGHT TO ROUGHLY 50 KTS
AT MID LEVELS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A FEW STRONGER/EMBEDDED
CELLS TO EVOLVE WITHIN THE LINE.  GIVEN RELATIVELY FAST STORM
MOTION...A FEW STRONGER/DAMAGING GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE -- THUS
WARRANTING INCLUSION OF 5% WIND PROBABILITY/MARGINAL CATEGORICAL
RISK AREA THIS FORECAST -- MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME BEFORE STORMS DIURNALLY WEAKEN AFTER DARK.

..GOSS.. 02/01/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 010600
SWODY1
SPC AC 010558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN TX EWD TO
PARTS OF WRN AL...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM PARTS
OF TEXAS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
COAST STATES ON SUNDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FIELD ALOFT IS PROGGED ACROSS THE U.S.
SUNDAY...AS A TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. STRENGTHENS AS
IT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS WITH
TIME.  AS THIS TROUGH ADVANCES...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY/MIDWEST WITH TIME...REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN
THE PERIOD.  A TRAILING COLD FRONT -- PROGGED TO BE SWEEPING ACROSS
THE TN/LOWER MS/SABINE RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL FOCUS AN EWD-MOVING BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

...PARTS OF E TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO WRN AL...
A PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
50S INLAND AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE GULF COAST/ WILL CONTINUE
STREAMING NWD AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS
THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.  DIURNAL HEATING BOOSTING
SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AND LINEAR FORCING ALONG
THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN/LOW-TOPPED LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN A ZONE FROM PARTS OF
SERN TX EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN MS/WRN AL.  THOUGH MODEST AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...ROUGHLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW INCREASING WITH HEIGHT TO ROUGHLY 50 KTS
AT MID LEVELS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A FEW STRONGER/EMBEDDED
CELLS TO EVOLVE WITHIN THE LINE.  GIVEN RELATIVELY FAST STORM
MOTION...A FEW STRONGER/DAMAGING GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE -- THUS
WARRANTING INCLUSION OF 5% WIND PROBABILITY/MARGINAL CATEGORICAL
RISK AREA THIS FORECAST -- MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME BEFORE STORMS DIURNALLY WEAKEN AFTER DARK.

..GOSS.. 02/01/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 010600
SWODY1
SPC AC 010558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN TX EWD TO
PARTS OF WRN AL...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM PARTS
OF TEXAS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
COAST STATES ON SUNDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FIELD ALOFT IS PROGGED ACROSS THE U.S.
SUNDAY...AS A TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. STRENGTHENS AS
IT DIGS ESEWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS WITH
TIME.  AS THIS TROUGH ADVANCES...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY/MIDWEST WITH TIME...REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN
THE PERIOD.  A TRAILING COLD FRONT -- PROGGED TO BE SWEEPING ACROSS
THE TN/LOWER MS/SABINE RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL FOCUS AN EWD-MOVING BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

...PARTS OF E TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO WRN AL...
A PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
50S INLAND AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE GULF COAST/ WILL CONTINUE
STREAMING NWD AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS
THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.  DIURNAL HEATING BOOSTING
SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AND LINEAR FORCING ALONG
THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF A
BROKEN/LOW-TOPPED LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN A ZONE FROM PARTS OF
SERN TX EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN MS/WRN AL.  THOUGH MODEST AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...ROUGHLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW INCREASING WITH HEIGHT TO ROUGHLY 50 KTS
AT MID LEVELS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A FEW STRONGER/EMBEDDED
CELLS TO EVOLVE WITHIN THE LINE.  GIVEN RELATIVELY FAST STORM
MOTION...A FEW STRONGER/DAMAGING GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE -- THUS
WARRANTING INCLUSION OF 5% WIND PROBABILITY/MARGINAL CATEGORICAL
RISK AREA THIS FORECAST -- MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME BEFORE STORMS DIURNALLY WEAKEN AFTER DARK.

..GOSS.. 02/01/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 010550
SWODY2
SPC AC 010549

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN SPARSE. OTHER STORMS MAY OCCUR MONDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS.

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT CONTINUING SWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY.

...FL...

LOW-MID 60S F LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA MONDAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK /MUCAPE AOB
300 J/KG/ OWING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT INTO
NRN AND CNTRL FL. DEEPER AND STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE PENINSULA. THIS ALONG WITH
THE EXPECTED VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE.

..DIAL.. 02/01/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 010550
SWODY2
SPC AC 010549

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN SPARSE. OTHER STORMS MAY OCCUR MONDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS.

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT CONTINUING SWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY.

...FL...

LOW-MID 60S F LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA MONDAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK /MUCAPE AOB
300 J/KG/ OWING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT INTO
NRN AND CNTRL FL. DEEPER AND STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE PENINSULA. THIS ALONG WITH
THE EXPECTED VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE.

..DIAL.. 02/01/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 010550
SWODY2
SPC AC 010549

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN SPARSE. OTHER STORMS MAY OCCUR MONDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS.

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT CONTINUING SWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY.

...FL...

LOW-MID 60S F LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA MONDAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK /MUCAPE AOB
300 J/KG/ OWING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT INTO
NRN AND CNTRL FL. DEEPER AND STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE PENINSULA. THIS ALONG WITH
THE EXPECTED VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE.

..DIAL.. 02/01/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 010414
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010413
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-011015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SE IA...NE MO...NRN IL

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 010413Z - 011015Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS CNTRL IA...SE IA...NE MO
EWD INTO NRN IL. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR IN SOME
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE MCD AREA. DUE TO SFC TEMPS BEING NEAR
FREEZING...IMPACTS OF ANY HEAVY SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN LESSENED.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009 MB LOW OVER WCNTRL
KS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SFC
LOW ENEWD TO THE VICINITY OF OMAHA NEB AND DES MOINES IA. POCKETS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL ARE ALREADY ONGOING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY FROM SE NEB INTO SCNTRL IA AND FAR NRN MO. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 40
TO 50 KT LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SE IA INTO NRN IL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
HELPING TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES. AS A RESULT...BANDS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN CNTRL AND SRN IA...SPREADING
SLOWLY EWD INTO NRN IL OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC
TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE MCD
AREA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AS
WET-BULBING AND DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH
NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PARTS OF THE BANDS. THE
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH NRN IL
BEING IMPACTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING...THE IMPACT OF ANY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD REMAIN LESSENED.

..BROYLES.. 02/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   41008848 40578966 40139233 40349355 40879390 41629395
            42319323 42149116 41848878 41008848





000
ACUS11 KWNS 010414
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010413
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-011015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SE IA...NE MO...NRN IL

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 010413Z - 011015Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS CNTRL IA...SE IA...NE MO
EWD INTO NRN IL. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR IN SOME
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE MCD AREA. DUE TO SFC TEMPS BEING NEAR
FREEZING...IMPACTS OF ANY HEAVY SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN LESSENED.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009 MB LOW OVER WCNTRL
KS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SFC
LOW ENEWD TO THE VICINITY OF OMAHA NEB AND DES MOINES IA. POCKETS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL ARE ALREADY ONGOING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY FROM SE NEB INTO SCNTRL IA AND FAR NRN MO. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 40
TO 50 KT LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SE IA INTO NRN IL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
HELPING TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES. AS A RESULT...BANDS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN CNTRL AND SRN IA...SPREADING
SLOWLY EWD INTO NRN IL OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC
TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE MCD
AREA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AS
WET-BULBING AND DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH
NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PARTS OF THE BANDS. THE
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH NRN IL
BEING IMPACTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING...THE IMPACT OF ANY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD REMAIN LESSENED.

..BROYLES.. 02/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   41008848 40578966 40139233 40349355 40879390 41629395
            42319323 42149116 41848878 41008848





000
ACUS11 KWNS 010414
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010413
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-011015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SE IA...NE MO...NRN IL

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 010413Z - 011015Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS CNTRL IA...SE IA...NE MO
EWD INTO NRN IL. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR IN SOME
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE MCD AREA. DUE TO SFC TEMPS BEING NEAR
FREEZING...IMPACTS OF ANY HEAVY SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN LESSENED.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009 MB LOW OVER WCNTRL
KS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SFC
LOW ENEWD TO THE VICINITY OF OMAHA NEB AND DES MOINES IA. POCKETS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL ARE ALREADY ONGOING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY FROM SE NEB INTO SCNTRL IA AND FAR NRN MO. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 40
TO 50 KT LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SE IA INTO NRN IL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
HELPING TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES. AS A RESULT...BANDS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN CNTRL AND SRN IA...SPREADING
SLOWLY EWD INTO NRN IL OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC
TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE MCD
AREA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AS
WET-BULBING AND DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH
NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PARTS OF THE BANDS. THE
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH NRN IL
BEING IMPACTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING...THE IMPACT OF ANY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD REMAIN LESSENED.

..BROYLES.. 02/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   41008848 40578966 40139233 40349355 40879390 41629395
            42319323 42149116 41848878 41008848





000
ACUS11 KWNS 010414
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010413
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-011015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SE IA...NE MO...NRN IL

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 010413Z - 011015Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS CNTRL IA...SE IA...NE MO
EWD INTO NRN IL. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR IN SOME
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE MCD AREA. DUE TO SFC TEMPS BEING NEAR
FREEZING...IMPACTS OF ANY HEAVY SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN LESSENED.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009 MB LOW OVER WCNTRL
KS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SFC
LOW ENEWD TO THE VICINITY OF OMAHA NEB AND DES MOINES IA. POCKETS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL ARE ALREADY ONGOING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY FROM SE NEB INTO SCNTRL IA AND FAR NRN MO. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 40
TO 50 KT LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SE IA INTO NRN IL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
HELPING TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES. AS A RESULT...BANDS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN CNTRL AND SRN IA...SPREADING
SLOWLY EWD INTO NRN IL OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC
TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE MCD
AREA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AS
WET-BULBING AND DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH
NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PARTS OF THE BANDS. THE
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH NRN IL
BEING IMPACTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING...THE IMPACT OF ANY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD REMAIN LESSENED.

..BROYLES.. 02/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   41008848 40578966 40139233 40349355 40879390 41629395
            42319323 42149116 41848878 41008848





000
ACUS11 KWNS 010414
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010413
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-011015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SE IA...NE MO...NRN IL

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 010413Z - 011015Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS CNTRL IA...SE IA...NE MO
EWD INTO NRN IL. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR IN SOME
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE MCD AREA. DUE TO SFC TEMPS BEING NEAR
FREEZING...IMPACTS OF ANY HEAVY SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN LESSENED.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009 MB LOW OVER WCNTRL
KS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SFC
LOW ENEWD TO THE VICINITY OF OMAHA NEB AND DES MOINES IA. POCKETS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL ARE ALREADY ONGOING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY FROM SE NEB INTO SCNTRL IA AND FAR NRN MO. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 40
TO 50 KT LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SE IA INTO NRN IL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
HELPING TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES. AS A RESULT...BANDS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN CNTRL AND SRN IA...SPREADING
SLOWLY EWD INTO NRN IL OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC
TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE MCD
AREA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AS
WET-BULBING AND DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH
NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PARTS OF THE BANDS. THE
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH NRN IL
BEING IMPACTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING...THE IMPACT OF ANY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD REMAIN LESSENED.

..BROYLES.. 02/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   41008848 40578966 40139233 40349355 40879390 41629395
            42319323 42149116 41848878 41008848






000
ACUS11 KWNS 010414
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010413
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-011015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SE IA...NE MO...NRN IL

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 010413Z - 011015Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS CNTRL IA...SE IA...NE MO
EWD INTO NRN IL. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR IN SOME
LOCATIONS WITHIN THE MCD AREA. DUE TO SFC TEMPS BEING NEAR
FREEZING...IMPACTS OF ANY HEAVY SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN LESSENED.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009 MB LOW OVER WCNTRL
KS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SFC
LOW ENEWD TO THE VICINITY OF OMAHA NEB AND DES MOINES IA. POCKETS OF
MODERATE SNOWFALL ARE ALREADY ONGOING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY FROM SE NEB INTO SCNTRL IA AND FAR NRN MO. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 40
TO 50 KT LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET. THE HRRR SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS SE IA INTO NRN IL DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
HELPING TO ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES. AS A RESULT...BANDS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN CNTRL AND SRN IA...SPREADING
SLOWLY EWD INTO NRN IL OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC
TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE MCD
AREA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AS
WET-BULBING AND DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH
NEAR 1 INCH PER HOUR WITHIN THE HEAVIEST PARTS OF THE BANDS. THE
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH NRN IL
BEING IMPACTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING...THE IMPACT OF ANY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD REMAIN LESSENED.

..BROYLES.. 02/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   41008848 40578966 40139233 40349355 40879390 41629395
            42319323 42149116 41848878 41008848






000
ACUS01 KWNS 010053
SWODY1
SPC AC 010051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TEXAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS

...DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN AZ AND INTO SWRN NM...NEAR THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE NWRN MEXICO VICINITY.  AS THE LOW DRIFTS SEWD THIS
EVENING...LIGHTNING RISK ACROSS SERN AZ SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.


MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS FAR W TX...W OF A LARGER PRECIPITATION SHIELD CROSSING
OK/CENTRAL AND ERN TX ATTM.  SOME INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION
MAY OCCUR EWD INTO CENTRAL TX IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION SHIELD -- WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAINING
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 02/01/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 010053
SWODY1
SPC AC 010051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TEXAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS

...DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN AZ AND INTO SWRN NM...NEAR THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE NWRN MEXICO VICINITY.  AS THE LOW DRIFTS SEWD THIS
EVENING...LIGHTNING RISK ACROSS SERN AZ SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.


MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS FAR W TX...W OF A LARGER PRECIPITATION SHIELD CROSSING
OK/CENTRAL AND ERN TX ATTM.  SOME INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION
MAY OCCUR EWD INTO CENTRAL TX IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION SHIELD -- WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAINING
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 02/01/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 010053
SWODY1
SPC AC 010051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TEXAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS

...DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN AZ AND INTO SWRN NM...NEAR THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE NWRN MEXICO VICINITY.  AS THE LOW DRIFTS SEWD THIS
EVENING...LIGHTNING RISK ACROSS SERN AZ SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.


MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS FAR W TX...W OF A LARGER PRECIPITATION SHIELD CROSSING
OK/CENTRAL AND ERN TX ATTM.  SOME INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION
MAY OCCUR EWD INTO CENTRAL TX IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION SHIELD -- WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAINING
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 02/01/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 312000
SWODY1
SPC AC 311959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS.

...20Z UPDATE...
FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED.

..GUYER.. 01/31/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

...SWRN U.S./TX...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
AS STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DIGS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO
COLORADO LATE TONIGHT.  AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION HAS EVOLVED OVER THE SRN/CNTL PLAINS AND ELEVATED
BUOYANCY SHOULD INCREASE SUCH THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF TX...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE PERIOD.  HAVE INCREASED THUNDER PROBABILITIES INTO NERN TX AS
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 800MB...LATE
TONIGHT...COULD YIELD MUCAPE NEAR 200 J/KG...ATTAINING HEIGHTS
NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING DISCHARGE.

ELSEWHERE...EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING CONVECTION CONTINUE.  PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ACROSS NRN MEXICO WILL AID BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ALONG A
CORRIDOR INTO FAR WEST TX.  WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED
TO AID ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 312000
SWODY1
SPC AC 311959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS.

...20Z UPDATE...
FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED.

..GUYER.. 01/31/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

...SWRN U.S./TX...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
AS STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DIGS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO
COLORADO LATE TONIGHT.  AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION HAS EVOLVED OVER THE SRN/CNTL PLAINS AND ELEVATED
BUOYANCY SHOULD INCREASE SUCH THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF TX...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE PERIOD.  HAVE INCREASED THUNDER PROBABILITIES INTO NERN TX AS
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 800MB...LATE
TONIGHT...COULD YIELD MUCAPE NEAR 200 J/KG...ATTAINING HEIGHTS
NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING DISCHARGE.

ELSEWHERE...EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING CONVECTION CONTINUE.  PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ACROSS NRN MEXICO WILL AID BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ALONG A
CORRIDOR INTO FAR WEST TX.  WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED
TO AID ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION.





000
ACUS02 KWNS 311731
SWODY2
SPC AC 311730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM PARTS OF
TEXAS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
COAST STATES ON SUNDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A SEMI-PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL OTHERWISE BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT OVER THE
CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST.

...ARKLAMISS...
INFLUENCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A COLD FRONT
WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND
LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY AND TN VALLEY SUNDAY. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION/MODEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BUT ONLY MODEST MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS COULD REACH AROUND 60 F
POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LA/MS.

WHILE THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...SUFFICIENT WARM SECTOR BUOYANCY /ALBEIT WEAK/ COULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE EXPECTED
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS TOO CONDITIONAL TO INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.

..GUYER.. 01/31/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 311731
SWODY2
SPC AC 311730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM PARTS OF
TEXAS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF
COAST STATES ON SUNDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A SEMI-PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN
STREAM WILL OTHERWISE BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT OVER THE
CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MISSOURI VALLEY/MIDWEST.

...ARKLAMISS...
INFLUENCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A COLD FRONT
WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND
LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY AND TN VALLEY SUNDAY. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION/MODEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...BUT ONLY MODEST MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT IS
CONCEIVABLE THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS COULD REACH AROUND 60 F
POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LA/MS.

WHILE THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...SUFFICIENT WARM SECTOR BUOYANCY /ALBEIT WEAK/ COULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE EXPECTED
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS TOO CONDITIONAL TO INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.

..GUYER.. 01/31/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 311614
SWODY1
SPC AC 311612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS.

...SWRN U.S./TX...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
AS STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DIGS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO
COLORADO LATE TONIGHT.  AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION HAS EVOLVED OVER THE SRN/CNTL PLAINS AND ELEVATED
BUOYANCY SHOULD INCREASE SUCH THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF TX...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE PERIOD.  HAVE INCREASED THUNDER PROBABILITIES INTO NERN TX AS
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 800MB...LATE
TONIGHT...COULD YIELD MUCAPE NEAR 200 J/KG...ATTAINING HEIGHTS
NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING DISCHARGE.

ELSEWHERE...EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING CONVECTION CONTINUE.  PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ACROSS NRN MEXICO WILL AID BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ALONG A
CORRIDOR INTO FAR WEST TX.  WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED
TO AID ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION.

..DARROW/GLEASON.. 01/31/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 311614
SWODY1
SPC AC 311612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS.

...SWRN U.S./TX...

UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH
AS STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DIGS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO
COLORADO LATE TONIGHT.  AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION HAS EVOLVED OVER THE SRN/CNTL PLAINS AND ELEVATED
BUOYANCY SHOULD INCREASE SUCH THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF TX...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE PERIOD.  HAVE INCREASED THUNDER PROBABILITIES INTO NERN TX AS
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 800MB...LATE
TONIGHT...COULD YIELD MUCAPE NEAR 200 J/KG...ATTAINING HEIGHTS
NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING DISCHARGE.

ELSEWHERE...EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING CONVECTION CONTINUE.  PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ACROSS NRN MEXICO WILL AID BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ALONG A
CORRIDOR INTO FAR WEST TX.  WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED
TO AID ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION.

..DARROW/GLEASON.. 01/31/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 311246
SWODY1
SPC AC 311244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

...SYNOPSIS...

A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY ONE
PERIOD. WITHIN THIS UPPER-AIR REGIME...A NRN-BRANCH SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...TEMPORARILY
PHASING WITH A SRN-BRANCH LOW WHICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM THE
VICINITY OF LAS SEWD ACROSS NWRN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT RELATED TO THE NRN-STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY. A
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS PRIOR TO
TRACKING ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT OVER KS.

...PORTIONS OF SRN AZ/NM INTO CNTRL TX...

CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL
INHIBIT THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS TODAY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
SRN-BRANCH UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...WAVES OF FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA
RELATED TO VORTICITY MAXIMA PIVOTING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT BURSTS OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING FROM SRN PARTS OF AZ/NM INTO SWRN TX.

ISOLATED TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX ALONG AN AXIS OF MORE
ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
EJECTING NEWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

..MEAD.. 01/31/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 311246
SWODY1
SPC AC 311244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS.

...SYNOPSIS...

A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY ONE
PERIOD. WITHIN THIS UPPER-AIR REGIME...A NRN-BRANCH SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...TEMPORARILY
PHASING WITH A SRN-BRANCH LOW WHICH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM THE
VICINITY OF LAS SEWD ACROSS NWRN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT RELATED TO THE NRN-STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY. A
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS PRIOR TO
TRACKING ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT OVER KS.

...PORTIONS OF SRN AZ/NM INTO CNTRL TX...

CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL
INHIBIT THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS TODAY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
SRN-BRANCH UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...WAVES OF FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA
RELATED TO VORTICITY MAXIMA PIVOTING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT BURSTS OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING FROM SRN PARTS OF AZ/NM INTO SWRN TX.

ISOLATED TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX ALONG AN AXIS OF MORE
ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
EJECTING NEWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

..MEAD.. 01/31/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 310829
SWODY3
SPC AC 310828

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
FLORIDA...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE.

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT CONTINUING SWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY.

...FL...

LOW-MID 60S F LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA MONDAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK /AOB 300
J/KG/ OWING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE NRN AND
CNTRL FL. DEEPER AND STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE PENINSULA. THIS ALONG WITH THE
EXPECTED VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE.

..DIAL.. 01/31/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 310829
SWODY3
SPC AC 310828

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
FLORIDA...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE.

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT CONTINUING SWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY.

...FL...

LOW-MID 60S F LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA MONDAY...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK /AOB 300
J/KG/ OWING TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE NRN AND
CNTRL FL. DEEPER AND STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE PENINSULA. THIS ALONG WITH THE
EXPECTED VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE.

..DIAL.. 01/31/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 310627
SWODY2
SPC AC 310626

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH A NRN STREAM TROUGH
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CONTINUE INTO THE
MID MS AND TN VALLEYS. CONCURRENTLY...A SRN STREAM POSITIVE TILT
TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE BAJA AREA AND NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH TX AND THE SERN STATES. BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA SWWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF.

...CNTRL AND SRN TX THROUGH SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...


MODIFIED CP AIR WITH UPPER 50S TO 60F LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL
ADVECT INLAND THROUGH SERN TX INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...MODEST 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SUGGEST MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
500 J/KG. A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF SWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. OTHER MORE SHALLOW CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FARTHER EAST WITHIN A ZONE
OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE FROM THE NCNTRL GULF INTO THE SERN
STATES.

WINDS ALOFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN /PARTICULARLY FROM
THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SERN U.S./ IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO MIGHT
EVOLVE...MAINLY OVER SERN TX WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
COULD DEVELOP IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING OCCURS IN WAKE OF
ANY EARLY CONVECTION. DUE TO AN EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...OVERALL THREAT REMAINS TOO CONDITIONAL TO INTRODUCE
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 01/31/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 310627
SWODY2
SPC AC 310626

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH A NRN STREAM TROUGH
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CONTINUE INTO THE
MID MS AND TN VALLEYS. CONCURRENTLY...A SRN STREAM POSITIVE TILT
TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE BAJA AREA AND NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH TX AND THE SERN STATES. BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AREA SWWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF.

...CNTRL AND SRN TX THROUGH SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...


MODIFIED CP AIR WITH UPPER 50S TO 60F LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL
ADVECT INLAND THROUGH SERN TX INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...MODEST 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SUGGEST MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
500 J/KG. A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF SWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. OTHER MORE SHALLOW CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FARTHER EAST WITHIN A ZONE
OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE FROM THE NCNTRL GULF INTO THE SERN
STATES.

WINDS ALOFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN /PARTICULARLY FROM
THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SERN U.S./ IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO MIGHT
EVOLVE...MAINLY OVER SERN TX WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
COULD DEVELOP IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING OCCURS IN WAKE OF
ANY EARLY CONVECTION. DUE TO AN EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...OVERALL THREAT REMAINS TOO CONDITIONAL TO INTRODUCE
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 01/31/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 310555
SWODY1
SPC AC 310554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY FROM
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF TEXAS
TONIGHT.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE SEWD INTO
NWRN MEXICO THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC...A SFC TROUGH AND DEVELOPING
FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY. SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S F ALONG
WITH SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SRN AZ EWD
ACROSS SWRN NM. THIS ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND CNTRL TX AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS. DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...NO
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SWRN STATES.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS ARE FORECAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

..BROYLES/ROGERS.. 01/31/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 310555
SWODY1
SPC AC 310554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY FROM
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF TEXAS
TONIGHT.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE SEWD INTO
NWRN MEXICO THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC...A SFC TROUGH AND DEVELOPING
FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY. SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S F ALONG
WITH SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SRN AZ EWD
ACROSS SWRN NM. THIS ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND CNTRL TX AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS. DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...NO
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SWRN STATES.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS ARE FORECAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

..BROYLES/ROGERS.. 01/31/2015






000
ACUS11 KWNS 310259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310258
MEZ000-310900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0858 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...DOWN EAST MAINE VICINITY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 310258Z - 310900Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES INCREASING TO 1" PER HOUR EXPECTED ACROSS
THE DOWN EAST ME VICINITY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
CANADA...PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A LOW DEEPENING OFF THE
ME COAST ATTM...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ERN ME.
 THIS IS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED EWD PROGRESSION OF
THE SHARP/COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NERN STATES ATTM.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS INCREASING QG ASCENT ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
ME VICINITY AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS
THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW -- AND ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ON ITS NRN
PERIPHERY -- STRENGTHENS AND REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.  AS ASCENT INCREASES...A ZONE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL -- NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA PER LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY -- IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND/PERSIST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HIGH-RES MODELS CONFIRM THIS SCENARIO --
MOST OF WHICH ARE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING THIS ZONE OF
SUSTAINED HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA -- BECOMING
MAXIMIZED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

..GOSS.. 01/31/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   43706945 44426939 45366866 45816838 45836776 45596724
            44696683 43706945





000
ACUS11 KWNS 310259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310258
MEZ000-310900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0858 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...DOWN EAST MAINE VICINITY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 310258Z - 310900Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES INCREASING TO 1" PER HOUR EXPECTED ACROSS
THE DOWN EAST ME VICINITY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
CANADA...PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A LOW DEEPENING OFF THE
ME COAST ATTM...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ERN ME.
 THIS IS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED EWD PROGRESSION OF
THE SHARP/COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NERN STATES ATTM.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS INCREASING QG ASCENT ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
ME VICINITY AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS
THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW -- AND ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ON ITS NRN
PERIPHERY -- STRENGTHENS AND REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.  AS ASCENT INCREASES...A ZONE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL -- NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA PER LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY -- IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND/PERSIST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HIGH-RES MODELS CONFIRM THIS SCENARIO --
MOST OF WHICH ARE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING THIS ZONE OF
SUSTAINED HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA -- BECOMING
MAXIMIZED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

..GOSS.. 01/31/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   43706945 44426939 45366866 45816838 45836776 45596724
            44696683 43706945






000
ACUS11 KWNS 310259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310258
MEZ000-310900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0858 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...DOWN EAST MAINE VICINITY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 310258Z - 310900Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES INCREASING TO 1" PER HOUR EXPECTED ACROSS
THE DOWN EAST ME VICINITY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
CANADA...PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A LOW DEEPENING OFF THE
ME COAST ATTM...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ERN ME.
 THIS IS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED EWD PROGRESSION OF
THE SHARP/COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE NERN STATES ATTM.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FOCUS INCREASING QG ASCENT ACROSS THE DOWN EAST
ME VICINITY AND INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS
THE OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW -- AND ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ON ITS NRN
PERIPHERY -- STRENGTHENS AND REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.  AS ASCENT INCREASES...A ZONE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL -- NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA PER LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY -- IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND/PERSIST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  HIGH-RES MODELS CONFIRM THIS SCENARIO --
MOST OF WHICH ARE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING THIS ZONE OF
SUSTAINED HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA -- BECOMING
MAXIMIZED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

..GOSS.. 01/31/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   43706945 44426939 45366866 45816838 45836776 45596724
            44696683 43706945





000
ACUS01 KWNS 310058
SWODY1
SPC AC 310056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SEWD INTO NWRN MEXICO TONIGHT AS A SFC
LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE AZ-MEX BORDER. A SFC TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN WRN AZ WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ANALYZED ACROSS SRN AZ WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S F. THIS ALONG WITH
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MAKE
ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN AZ AND
FAR SW NM THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED THIS EVENING OR
TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 01/31/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 310058
SWODY1
SPC AC 310056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SEWD INTO NWRN MEXICO TONIGHT AS A SFC
LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE AZ-MEX BORDER. A SFC TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN WRN AZ WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ANALYZED ACROSS SRN AZ WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S F. THIS ALONG WITH
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MAKE
ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN AZ AND
FAR SW NM THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED THIS EVENING OR
TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 01/31/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 301937
SWODY1
SPC AC 301935

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.

...20Z UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED.

..GUYER.. 01/30/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS LIKELY WILL BE MAINTAINED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  THE EXCEPTION MAY BE PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EVOLVING CLOSED LOW...WITHIN
BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT
WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE PACIFIC.  COLDEST MID-LEVEL AIR IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ADVECTING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD...TO THE WEST OF
THE PACIFIC COAST...THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
BY 12Z SATURDAY.  AND THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS IT DOES.
HOWEVER...COOLING ALOFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION...GIVEN THE
MOISTURE INFLUX WHICH HAS OCCURRED...PARTICULARLY IF ANY BREAKS IN
THE LOW-LEVEL OVERCAST CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARIZONA DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 301937
SWODY1
SPC AC 301935

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.

...20Z UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED.

..GUYER.. 01/30/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS LIKELY WILL BE MAINTAINED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  THE EXCEPTION MAY BE PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EVOLVING CLOSED LOW...WITHIN
BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT
WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE PACIFIC.  COLDEST MID-LEVEL AIR IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ADVECTING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD...TO THE WEST OF
THE PACIFIC COAST...THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
BY 12Z SATURDAY.  AND THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS IT DOES.
HOWEVER...COOLING ALOFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION...GIVEN THE
MOISTURE INFLUX WHICH HAS OCCURRED...PARTICULARLY IF ANY BREAKS IN
THE LOW-LEVEL OVERCAST CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARIZONA DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON.






000
ACUS02 KWNS 301731
SWODY2
SPC AC 301730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY FROM
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN PREVALENT OVER THE CONUS INTO
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL AMPLIFY/DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO/ADJACENT SOUTHWEST STATES.

...SOUTHERN AZ/NM TO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL TX...
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST STATES/NORTHWEST MEXICO UPPER
LOW...GLANCING DPVA/UPPER JET EXIT REGION AND A WEAK CAPE
ENVIRONMENT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWER/SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF AZ/NM DURING THE DAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR EAST AS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL TX SATURDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THAT ARE AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

..GUYER.. 01/30/2015






000
ACUS02 KWNS 301731
SWODY2
SPC AC 301730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY FROM
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN PREVALENT OVER THE CONUS INTO
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL AMPLIFY/DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO/ADJACENT SOUTHWEST STATES.

...SOUTHERN AZ/NM TO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL TX...
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST STATES/NORTHWEST MEXICO UPPER
LOW...GLANCING DPVA/UPPER JET EXIT REGION AND A WEAK CAPE
ENVIRONMENT WILL INFLUENCE SHOWER/SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF AZ/NM DURING THE DAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR EAST AS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL TX SATURDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THAT ARE AT LEAST
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

..GUYER.. 01/30/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 301617
SWODY1
SPC AC 301615

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.

...SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS LIKELY WILL BE MAINTAINED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  THE EXCEPTION MAY BE PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EVOLVING CLOSED LOW...WITHIN
BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT
WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE PACIFIC.  COLDEST MID-LEVEL AIR IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ADVECTING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD...TO THE WEST OF
THE PACIFIC COAST...THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
BY 12Z SATURDAY.  AND THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS IT DOES.
HOWEVER...COOLING ALOFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION...GIVEN THE
MOISTURE INFLUX WHICH HAS OCCURRED...PARTICULARLY IF ANY BREAKS IN
THE LOW-LEVEL OVERCAST CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARIZONA DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

..KERR/GLEASON.. 01/30/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 301617
SWODY1
SPC AC 301615

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.

...SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS LIKELY WILL BE MAINTAINED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  THE EXCEPTION MAY BE PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST...IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EVOLVING CLOSED LOW...WITHIN
BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT
WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE PACIFIC.  COLDEST MID-LEVEL AIR IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ADVECTING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD...TO THE WEST OF
THE PACIFIC COAST...THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
BY 12Z SATURDAY.  AND THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS IT DOES.
HOWEVER...COOLING ALOFT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION...GIVEN THE
MOISTURE INFLUX WHICH HAS OCCURRED...PARTICULARLY IF ANY BREAKS IN
THE LOW-LEVEL OVERCAST CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE ARIZONA DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

..KERR/GLEASON.. 01/30/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 301235
SWODY1
SPC AC 301233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.

...SYNOPSIS...

A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD WITH
THE MOST SALIENT FEATURE TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT BEING A SRN-STREAM
TROUGH WHICH WILL UNDERGO SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE SWRN U.S.
AND BAJA/NWRN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...AN EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE WILL
BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE NATION WHILE AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER NWRN MEXICO/SRN AZ.

...SRN AZ/FAR SWRN NM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

SSWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW PRECEDING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS
TRANSPORTED AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH HEIGHT
FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT RELATED TO MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMA
PIVOTING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER-AIR SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT AND THE
RESULTANT STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

..MEAD.. 01/30/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 301235
SWODY1
SPC AC 301233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.

...SYNOPSIS...

A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD WITH
THE MOST SALIENT FEATURE TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT BEING A SRN-STREAM
TROUGH WHICH WILL UNDERGO SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE SWRN U.S.
AND BAJA/NWRN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...AN EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE WILL
BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART OF THE NATION WHILE AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER NWRN MEXICO/SRN AZ.

...SRN AZ/FAR SWRN NM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

SSWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW PRECEDING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS
TRANSPORTED AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH HEIGHT
FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT RELATED TO MULTIPLE VORTICITY MAXIMA
PIVOTING AROUND THE PARENT UPPER-AIR SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT AND THE
RESULTANT STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.

..MEAD.. 01/30/2015






000
ACUS03 KWNS 300826
SWODY3
SPC AC 300824

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM A
PORTION OF SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH A NRN STREAM TROUGH
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MS AND TN
VALLEYS. CONCURRENTLY...A SRN STREAM POSITIVE TILT TROUGH WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE BAJA AREA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE NRN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH TX AND THE SERN STATES. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
AREA SWWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF.

...CNTRL AND SRN TX THROUGH SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...


A BROAD FETCH OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST FROM SRN TX THROUGH THE
SERN STATES AND UPPER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. MODIFIED CP AIR WITH UPPER 50S TO 60 F
LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT INLAND THROUGH SERN TX INTO SRN
PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK
OWING TO THE MODEST MOISTURE RETURN...POOR 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
AND AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND
A SERIES OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BELT OF SWLY WINDS ALOFT
WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
WHILE WINDS ALOFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN /PARTICULARLY
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SERN U.S./ IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR A SEVERE STORM THREAT.

..DIAL.. 01/30/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 300550
SWODY2
SPC AC 300548

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY FROM
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

...SYNOPSIS...

SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE U.S. SATURDAY WITH PRIMARY
BELT OF WLYS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM THE SWRN STATES INTO NRN MEXICO.

...SRN AZ THROUGH SWRN AND SCNTRL TX...

A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LARGER CUTOFF
UPPER-LOW CIRCULATION INTO THE SWRN AND SCNTRL STATES. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
FROM SRN AZ INTO SRN NM WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST 6-6.5
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK AOB 300 J/KG MUCAPE.

OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FARTHER EAST
FROM SWRN THROUGH CNTRL TX WITHIN DEVELOPING ZONE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING
SLY LLJ. MODEST LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 01/30/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 300540
SWODY1
SPC AC 300538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS SRN CA FRIDAY AS A
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS IN WRN AZ. SFC DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS SRN AZ SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S F. AS SFC
TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY ACROSS SRN AZ...WEAK INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE VICINITY OF TUSCON AND SWD INTO NWRN
MEXICO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD TAKE PLACE ALONG THE
INSTABILITY CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. THIS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES/ROGERS.. 01/30/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 300540
SWODY1
SPC AC 300538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS SRN CA FRIDAY AS A
SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS IN WRN AZ. SFC DEWPOINTS TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS SRN AZ SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S F. AS SFC
TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY ACROSS SRN AZ...WEAK INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE VICINITY OF TUSCON AND SWD INTO NWRN
MEXICO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD TAKE PLACE ALONG THE
INSTABILITY CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...OVERSPREADS THE
REGION. THIS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES/ROGERS.. 01/30/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 300041
SWODY1
SPC AC 300040

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MID MS VALLEY
WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS TONIGHT. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND ERN GULF
COAST STATES. NLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE THE AIRMASS
ALONG THE GULF COAST TO BECOME DRIER AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED OFFSHORE. THIS COMBINED WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.

..BROYLES.. 01/30/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 300041
SWODY1
SPC AC 300040

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MID MS VALLEY
WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS TONIGHT. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND ERN GULF
COAST STATES. NLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE THE AIRMASS
ALONG THE GULF COAST TO BECOME DRIER AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED OFFSHORE. THIS COMBINED WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.

..BROYLES.. 01/30/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 291940
SWODY1
SPC AC 291939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.

..PETERS.. 01/29/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

...SYNOPTIC SETUP/FORECAST...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN U.S...DOWNSTREAM
FROM QUASI-STNRY SPLIT OVER THE WEST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER THE
LWR OH VLY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT SHEARS ENE INTO MD/PA LATER
TODAY...AHEAD OF CONSOLIDATING NRN AND MIDDLE STREAM DISTURBANCES
MOVING SEWD FROM WRN ONT AND IA. THE LATTER FEATURES SHOULD EVOLVE
INTO A FAIRLY SHARP...NEUTRALLY-TILTED TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI. OVER THE SOUTHWEST...CURRENT SATELLITE DATA
LEND CREDENCE TO THE IDEA THAT VORT MAX NOW W OF THE BAJA SPUR WILL
DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED CLOSED LOW CENTERED OFF THE NRN BAJA CST
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DESPITE EXPECTED POCKETS OF MDT TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT...WEAK BUOYANCY /OWING PRIMARILY TO SPARSE MOISTURE/ SHOULD
PROHIBIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ERN U.S.

ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SWRN U.S...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD OVER FAR SRN CA AND AZ
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ON E
SIDE OF TROUGH. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 291940
SWODY1
SPC AC 291939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.

..PETERS.. 01/29/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

...SYNOPTIC SETUP/FORECAST...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN U.S...DOWNSTREAM
FROM QUASI-STNRY SPLIT OVER THE WEST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER THE
LWR OH VLY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT SHEARS ENE INTO MD/PA LATER
TODAY...AHEAD OF CONSOLIDATING NRN AND MIDDLE STREAM DISTURBANCES
MOVING SEWD FROM WRN ONT AND IA. THE LATTER FEATURES SHOULD EVOLVE
INTO A FAIRLY SHARP...NEUTRALLY-TILTED TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI. OVER THE SOUTHWEST...CURRENT SATELLITE DATA
LEND CREDENCE TO THE IDEA THAT VORT MAX NOW W OF THE BAJA SPUR WILL
DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED CLOSED LOW CENTERED OFF THE NRN BAJA CST
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DESPITE EXPECTED POCKETS OF MDT TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT...WEAK BUOYANCY /OWING PRIMARILY TO SPARSE MOISTURE/ SHOULD
PROHIBIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ERN U.S.

ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SWRN U.S...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD OVER FAR SRN CA AND AZ
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ON E
SIDE OF TROUGH. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS.





000
ACUS02 KWNS 291708
SWODY2
SPC AC 291707

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

...SRN AZ AND EXTREME SWRN NM...
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.
AN ELONGATED CLOSED LOW...CENTERED OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST AT 12Z
FRIDAY...IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/SWRN
STATES AND BAJA/NWRN MEXICO THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  ONGOING
MOISTENING TODAY INTO FRIDAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW
COMBINED WITH MIDLEVEL COOLING ATOP MODEST DIABATIC WARMING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FRIDAY INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY INTO SRN AZ/SWRN NM.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPE
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 300 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TSTMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

..PETERS.. 01/29/2015





000
ACUS02 KWNS 291708
SWODY2
SPC AC 291707

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

...SRN AZ AND EXTREME SWRN NM...
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.
AN ELONGATED CLOSED LOW...CENTERED OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST AT 12Z
FRIDAY...IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/SWRN
STATES AND BAJA/NWRN MEXICO THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  ONGOING
MOISTENING TODAY INTO FRIDAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW
COMBINED WITH MIDLEVEL COOLING ATOP MODEST DIABATIC WARMING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FRIDAY INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY INTO SRN AZ/SWRN NM.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPE
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 300 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TSTMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

..PETERS.. 01/29/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 291620
SWODY1
SPC AC 291619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP/FORECAST...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN U.S...DOWNSTREAM
FROM QUASI-STNRY SPLIT OVER THE WEST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER THE
LWR OH VLY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT SHEARS ENE INTO MD/PA LATER
TODAY...AHEAD OF CONSOLIDATING NRN AND MIDDLE STREAM DISTURBANCES
MOVING SEWD FROM WRN ONT AND IA. THE LATTER FEATURES SHOULD EVOLVE
INTO A FAIRLY SHARP...NEUTRALLY-TILTED TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI. OVER THE SOUTHWEST...CURRENT SATELLITE DATA
LEND CREDENCE TO THE IDEA THAT VORT MAX NOW W OF THE BAJA SPUR WILL
DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED CLOSED LOW CENTERED OFF THE NRN BAJA CST
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DESPITE EXPECTED POCKETS OF MDT TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT...WEAK BUOYANCY /OWING PRIMARILY TO SPARSE MOISTURE/ SHOULD
PROHIBIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ERN U.S.

ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SWRN U.S...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD OVER FAR SRN CA AND AZ
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ON E
SIDE OF TROUGH. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS.

..CORFIDI/GLEASON.. 01/29/2015






000
ACUS01 KWNS 291620
SWODY1
SPC AC 291619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP/FORECAST...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN U.S...DOWNSTREAM
FROM QUASI-STNRY SPLIT OVER THE WEST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER THE
LWR OH VLY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT SHEARS ENE INTO MD/PA LATER
TODAY...AHEAD OF CONSOLIDATING NRN AND MIDDLE STREAM DISTURBANCES
MOVING SEWD FROM WRN ONT AND IA. THE LATTER FEATURES SHOULD EVOLVE
INTO A FAIRLY SHARP...NEUTRALLY-TILTED TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI. OVER THE SOUTHWEST...CURRENT SATELLITE DATA
LEND CREDENCE TO THE IDEA THAT VORT MAX NOW W OF THE BAJA SPUR WILL
DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED CLOSED LOW CENTERED OFF THE NRN BAJA CST
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

DESPITE EXPECTED POCKETS OF MDT TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT...WEAK BUOYANCY /OWING PRIMARILY TO SPARSE MOISTURE/ SHOULD
PROHIBIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ERN U.S.

ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SWRN U.S...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD OVER FAR SRN CA AND AZ
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ON E
SIDE OF TROUGH. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS.

..CORFIDI/GLEASON.. 01/29/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 291232
SWODY1
SPC AC 291230

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...MEAN TROUGHING OVER ERN CONUS WILL BE
REINFORCED LATER THIS PERIOD BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOW
TRAVERSING BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD BETWEEN HUDSON BAY...CENTRAL
PLAINS AND OH VALLEY.  LEADING PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MID MS VALLEY -- WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
ENEWD TO PA BY 00Z THEN DISSIPATE OVER SERN CANADA BY 12Z.  THIS
WILL OCCUR AS PHASING OR NEAR-PHASING OF UPSTREAM PERTURBATIONS
OCCURS...YIELDING STG TROUGH FROM SRN ONT TO CAROLINAS BY END OF
PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA
WITH RIDGING OVER SWRN CANADA AND SLOW-MOVING TROUGH FROM ORE AND CA
SWD OFFSHORE BAJA.  VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN SRN BRANCH OF THIS MAY
STRENGTHEN INTO CLOSED LOW NEAR COASTAL NWRN BAJA BY 12Z...OR EARLY
DAY 2.  MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT FROM ROCKIES SEWD ACROSS
SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...PUNCTUATED BY WEAK TROUGHS AND COLS...FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
SRN GA.  TO ITS W...COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM ERN KS SSWWD ACROSS
IL...THEN SWWD OVER OZARKS...ARCHING ACROSS RED RIVER REGION AND
OVER SERN NM.  FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR BUF...CRW...CHA...JAN...
IAH...SAT...DRT LINE BY 00Z.  BY 12Z...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN
NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE MOST OF ATLC COAST...ACROSS SERN GA/NRN FL AND
NERN GULF.

...SWRN CONUS...
INCREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT PERIOD ACROSS
SRN GREAT BASIN AND FROM SRN CA TO W TX...MAINLY AFTER 00Z.  THIS
WILL OCCUR AS TROUGH AND EMBEDDED LOW APCH...AMIDST BROAD ZONE OF
LOW-LEVEL WAA AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW- AND MIDDLE-LEVEL
MOISTURE.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK.  WHILE
BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR
MEX BORDER...PRIND ANY TSTM RISK CONCENTRATED ENOUGH FOR 10%/GEN
AREA WILL WAIT UNTIL DAY 2.

..EDWARDS/PICCA.. 01/29/2015





000
ACUS01 KWNS 291232
SWODY1
SPC AC 291230

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...MEAN TROUGHING OVER ERN CONUS WILL BE
REINFORCED LATER THIS PERIOD BY SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NOW
TRAVERSING BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD BETWEEN HUDSON BAY...CENTRAL
PLAINS AND OH VALLEY.  LEADING PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MID MS VALLEY -- WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
ENEWD TO PA BY 00Z THEN DISSIPATE OVER SERN CANADA BY 12Z.  THIS
WILL OCCUR AS PHASING OR NEAR-PHASING OF UPSTREAM PERTURBATIONS
OCCURS...YIELDING STG TROUGH FROM SRN ONT TO CAROLINAS BY END OF
PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA
WITH RIDGING OVER SWRN CANADA AND SLOW-MOVING TROUGH FROM ORE AND CA
SWD OFFSHORE BAJA.  VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN SRN BRANCH OF THIS MAY
STRENGTHEN INTO CLOSED LOW NEAR COASTAL NWRN BAJA BY 12Z...OR EARLY
DAY 2.  MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT FROM ROCKIES SEWD ACROSS
SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE...PUNCTUATED BY WEAK TROUGHS AND COLS...FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
SRN GA.  TO ITS W...COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM ERN KS SSWWD ACROSS
IL...THEN SWWD OVER OZARKS...ARCHING ACROSS RED RIVER REGION AND
OVER SERN NM.  FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR BUF...CRW...CHA...JAN...
IAH...SAT...DRT LINE BY 00Z.  BY 12Z...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN
NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE MOST OF ATLC COAST...ACROSS SERN GA/NRN FL AND
NERN GULF.

...SWRN CONUS...
INCREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT PERIOD ACROSS
SRN GREAT BASIN AND FROM SRN CA TO W TX...MAINLY AFTER 00Z.  THIS
WILL OCCUR AS TROUGH AND EMBEDDED LOW APCH...AMIDST BROAD ZONE OF
LOW-LEVEL WAA AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW- AND MIDDLE-LEVEL
MOISTURE.  LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK.  WHILE
BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR
MEX BORDER...PRIND ANY TSTM RISK CONCENTRATED ENOUGH FOR 10%/GEN
AREA WILL WAIT UNTIL DAY 2.

..EDWARDS/PICCA.. 01/29/2015






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