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000
ACUS03 KWNS 310730
SWODY3
SPC AC 310729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOUR CORNERS STATES DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND MAY SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.

...SYNOPSIS...
AS THE ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE MIDDLE/SRN ATLANTIC
COAST AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...THE MORE SLOWLY ADVANCING WRN TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.  IN BETWEEN...A
SLOW-MOVING RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS VALLEY.

WITH A COOL/CONTINENTAL SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE ERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY AND HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE NWRN STATES IN
THE WAKE OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION SHOULD
BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE FOUR CORNERS STATES DURING THE DAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  LATER...AS A NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS THE PLAINS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY SPREAD AS FAR E AS THE KS/NEB VICINITY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 10/31/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 310550
SWODY2
SPC AC 310549

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST/COASTAL CAROLINAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE U.S.
SATURDAY...WITH WRN AND ERN TROUGHS -- FLANKING A CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE
-- MAKING GRADUAL EWD PROGRESS.

WITH A COOL/CONTINENTAL SURFACE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE
U.S. E OF THE ROCKIES...DEEP/MOIST CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY BE
MINIMIZED IN MOST AREAS.  SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INVOF THE E COAST BENEATH THE ERN TROUGH...BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD
REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY SEVERE RISK.

IN THE W...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN U.S.
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
W/ROCKIES.  HOWEVER...RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MINIMAL DUE TO
LACK OF APPRECIABLE CAPE.

..GOSS.. 10/31/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 310443
SWODY1
SPC AC 310441

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-DAY ACROSS DEEP
S TX AMIDST A LINGERING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY DRY TRAJECTORIES/NLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SPRAWLING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A
MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE SERN
STATES...WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT OVERSPREADING RELATIVELY WARMER WATER
TEMPS OVER LAKE MI AS THE OVER-LAKE FETCH LENGTH INCREASES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL ENCOURAGE DEEPENING OF A
LAKE-ENHANCED CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH RELATED CAPE
EXTENDING SUFFICIENTLY DEEP INTO ICING LAYERS ALOFT FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FROM MID-LAKE SWD TO NWRN INDIANA. ALSO...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ADVANCING THROUGH THE
AMPLIFYING CYCLONIC FLOW AMIDST SCANT BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE.

OVER THE WRN STATES...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL
COOLING WILL SUPPORT MEAGER BUOYANCY AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CA. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...DIURNALLY ENHANCED
OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS MAY SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION SWD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AS MODEST
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AFFECT THIS REGION AMIDST ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CONUS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

..COHEN/KERR.. 10/31/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 310036
SWODY1
SPC AC 310035

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS.  WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

...FLORIDA...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF THE
INITIAL SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA.
ACTIVITY LIKELY HAS BEEN AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPSTREAM WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TURNING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT.  WHILE THE BULK OF ONGOING CONVECTION MAY SPREAD OFFSHORE
NEAR/NORTH OF DAYTONA BEACH BY 02-03Z...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FARTHER
SOUTH NEAR EAST CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

...TEXAS...
WHILE INITIAL ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX...NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...PERHAPS AIDED BY A ZONE OF
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.  WITH SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER
STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNLIKELY ACROSS THIS
REGION...RATHER MODEST CAPE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE
RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER VERTICAL
SHEAR AND DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.

..KERR.. 10/31/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 301955
SWODY1
SPC AC 301953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TX...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS...FLORIDA...AND THE OZARKS TO MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...TX...
FORECAST REASONING FOR THE MARGINAL RISK AREA REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH THE 1630Z OUTLOOK...AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THE 20Z
OUTLOOK.  AS EXPECTED...THE WARM SECTOR IS DESTABILIZING AND
SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION IS WEAKENING PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...SUCH
THAT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY.  RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
VICINITY OF WACO TX WITH THIS ACTIVITY LOCATED ALONG A NNW-SSE
ORIENTED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN PORTIONS OF THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH METROPLEX TO NEAR AUSTIN TX.

...MO...
THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE HAS REMOVED PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL MO FROM
THE GENERAL TSTM OUTLOOK AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ATTENDANT TO THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTING ONGOING ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM
CENTRAL MO TO NRN AR HAS EXITED LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MO.

...ERN FL PANHANDLE...
THE APPARENT MIDLEVEL IMPULSE /EMBEDDED WITHIN SWLY FLOW ALOFT/ THAT
AIDED IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT EARLIER TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN FL
PANHANDLE WAS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE SRN GA/FL BORDER.  SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE AND DRIER AIR SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INHIBIT NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  FOR THESE REASONS...THE GENERAL TSTM AREA
HAS BEEN TRIMMED EASTWARD.

..PETERS.. 10/30/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

...TX...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEST TX
INTO WESTERN OK.  THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY INTO NORTH TX
BY LATE AFTERNOON.  CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND SLOW MOISTURE
INFLUX INTO THE REGION WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND
1000 J/KG AND ONLY A WEAK CAP.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTH TX
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40
KNOTS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL POSE SOME RISK OF HAIL IN
THE STRONGEST CELLS.  ACTIVITY MAY BUILD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.






000
ACUS02 KWNS 301729
SWODY2
SPC AC 301727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR
CORNERS AND PACIFIC COAST STATES...ALONG WITH SOUTH
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...THE CAROLINAS...AND GREAT LAKES.

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE A
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES. A RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE REMAINS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN GA/SC AREA BY 12Z/SATURDAY. COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM MAY SUPPORT SPORADIC LIGHTNING
STRIKES AMIDST MINIMAL BUOYANCY OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE CAROLINAS.  UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD INCREASE TOWARD 12Z
SATURDAY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NERN SC AND SRN NC...BUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION
OF THESE PORTIONS OF SC/NC INTO THE GENERAL TSTM AREA AT THIS TIME.

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...WITH THE
ATTENDANT ANTICYCLONE/COLD CP AIR MASS EXPANDING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
TO THE GULF COAST STATES. DEEP SOUTH TX AND FAR SOUTHEAST FL WILL
HAVE EARLY-PERIOD TSTM POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THIS INTRUSION.

IN THE WEST...A PLUME OF RICHER 700-MB DEW POINTS WILL BE DRAWN
NORTH FROM CHIHUAHUA/SONORA DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ENTERING THE PACIFIC COAST STATES. MEAGER BUOYANCY WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH...WEAK BUOYANCY MIGHT RESULT IN SPORADIC
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN PREDOMINANT SHOWERY CONVECTION. FAST
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD AID IN SMALL
HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

..PETERS.. 10/30/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 301729
SWODY2
SPC AC 301727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR
CORNERS AND PACIFIC COAST STATES...ALONG WITH SOUTH
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...THE CAROLINAS...AND GREAT LAKES.

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE A
DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN STATES. A RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE REMAINS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TO EASTERN GA/SC AREA BY 12Z/SATURDAY. COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM MAY SUPPORT SPORADIC LIGHTNING
STRIKES AMIDST MINIMAL BUOYANCY OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE CAROLINAS.  UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHOULD INCREASE TOWARD 12Z
SATURDAY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF NERN SC AND SRN NC...BUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION
OF THESE PORTIONS OF SC/NC INTO THE GENERAL TSTM AREA AT THIS TIME.

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...WITH THE
ATTENDANT ANTICYCLONE/COLD CP AIR MASS EXPANDING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
TO THE GULF COAST STATES. DEEP SOUTH TX AND FAR SOUTHEAST FL WILL
HAVE EARLY-PERIOD TSTM POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THIS INTRUSION.

IN THE WEST...A PLUME OF RICHER 700-MB DEW POINTS WILL BE DRAWN
NORTH FROM CHIHUAHUA/SONORA DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ENTERING THE PACIFIC COAST STATES. MEAGER BUOYANCY WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH...WEAK BUOYANCY MIGHT RESULT IN SPORADIC
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN PREDOMINANT SHOWERY CONVECTION. FAST
MID-LEVEL FLOW AND COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD AID IN SMALL
HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

..PETERS.. 10/30/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 301621
SWODY1
SPC AC 301620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TX...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS...FLORIDA...AND THE OZARKS TO MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...TX...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEST TX
INTO WESTERN OK.  THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY INTO NORTH TX
BY LATE AFTERNOON.  CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND SLOW MOISTURE
INFLUX INTO THE REGION WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND
1000 J/KG AND ONLY A WEAK CAP.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTH TX
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40
KNOTS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL POSE SOME RISK OF HAIL IN
THE STRONGEST CELLS.  ACTIVITY MAY BUILD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

..HART/LEITMAN.. 10/30/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 301621
SWODY1
SPC AC 301620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TX...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS...FLORIDA...AND THE OZARKS TO MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...TX...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEST TX
INTO WESTERN OK.  THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY INTO NORTH TX
BY LATE AFTERNOON.  CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND SLOW MOISTURE
INFLUX INTO THE REGION WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND
1000 J/KG AND ONLY A WEAK CAP.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTH TX
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40
KNOTS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL POSE SOME RISK OF HAIL IN
THE STRONGEST CELLS.  ACTIVITY MAY BUILD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

..HART/LEITMAN.. 10/30/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 301246
SWODY1
SPC AC 301244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL TX...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS...FLORIDA...AND THE OZARKS TO MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFYING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS. AN
EASTWARD-SHIFTING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WILL BE
FLANKED BY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 138W
GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL
COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS/ADJACENT MS RIVER VALLEY.

...CENTRAL TX...
A MODESTLY MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 50S/SOME LOWER 60S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH TX IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH 100MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 12.4/14.3
G/KG OBSERVED IN 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM DEL RIO/CORPUS CHRISTI
RESPECTIVELY. A LIMITED DEGREE OF NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A FAST-MOVING/SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE AID OF A WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
TRIPLE POINT SHOULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX TOWARD PEAK
HEATING. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE INFLUENCES WILL BE WEAK ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE POLAR JET...SUFFICIENT FRONTAL
UPLIFT/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE PRESENCE OF A MODESTLY UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER /750-1250 J PER KG MLCAPE/ SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS IS WELL-SUPPORTED BY VARIOUS TRADITIONAL DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE IN ADDITION TO VIRTUALLY ALL MEMBERS OF THE 00Z SSEO
INCLUDING THE WRF-NSSL.

GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANCY...STRENGTHENING BELT OF
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG TURNING WITH HEIGHT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WHICH COULD SUPPORT
SOME ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING A COUPLE OF WEAK/TRANSIENT
SUPERCELLS. AS SUCH...MARGINAL-CALIBER SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN INTRODUCED FOR MAINLY A HAIL RISK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SOUTHWARD-MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER DARK.

...FL...
A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE AN AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTH GA/NORTH FL. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY GRADUALLY APPROACH THE WESTERN
FL PENINSULA TODAY...WHILE OTHER RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST PENINSULA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
AS MUCH AS 750-1000 J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED INLAND
/SUCH AS KDAB GENERAL VICINITY/...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERE
PROBABILITIES REMAIN BELOW 5 PERCENT GIVEN A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.

..GUYER/BOTHWELL.. 10/30/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 300730
SWODY3
SPC AC 300729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
BASIN AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES...AS WELL AS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
MARYLAND TO SOUTH CAROLINA.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL SHIFT OFF THE S ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE
A RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS E OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. LEAD IMPULSE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER WRN CONUS TROUGH SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES...WHILE AN UPSTREAM VORTICITY
MAXIMUM REMAINS OVER THE DESERT SW.

...GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES...
BUOYANCY WILL BE MEAGER AHEAD OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...BUT
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WHERE TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP
SHOULD AID IN ISOLATED TSTMS. BENEATH A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK...CHARACTERIZED BY 500 MB S/SWLYS AOA 60 KT...CONDITIONAL
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS AROUND PEAK HEATING
/INVOF UT/. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HIGHLIGHTING THIS
CORRIDOR WITH UNCONDITIONAL MARGINAL-RISK PROBABILITIES...AS
ABOVE-AVERAGE VARIABILITY EXISTS WITHIN GUIDANCE ON THE
SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

...COASTAL PORTIONS OF MD TO SC...
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITHIN A MINIMALLY BUOYANT BUT RATHER STRONGLY-FORCED ENVIRONMENT
NEAR A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE JUST OFF THE OUTER BANKS.

..GRAMS.. 10/30/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 300536
SWODY2
SPC AC 300535

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR
CORNERS AND PACIFIC COAST STATES...ALONG WITH SOUTH
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...THE CAROLINAS...AND GREAT LAKES.

...DISCUSSION...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRI WITH
BROAD TROUGHS IN THE EAST AND WEST...AND A RIDGE SHIFTING FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS. A POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL DIVE SE
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SC AREA BY 12Z/SAT. COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES AMIDST MINIMAL
BUOYANCY OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND THE CAROLINAS.

A STOUT SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE
WAKE OF THE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. THIS WILL YIELD A
STABILIZING CP AIR MASS ENVELOPING THE GULF COAST STATES. DEEP S TX
AND FAR SE FL WILL HAVE EARLY-PERIOD TSTM POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THIS
INTRUSION.

IN THE WEST...A PLUME OF RICHER 700-MB DEW POINTS WILL BE DRAWN N
FROM CHIHUAHUA/SONORA DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING
THE PACIFIC COAST STATES. MEAGER BUOYANCY WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
TROUGH...SCANT BUOYANCY MIGHT RESULT IN SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN PREDOMINANT SHOWERY CONVECTION. FAST MID-LEVEL FLOW AND COOL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD AID IN SMALL HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS.

..GRAMS.. 10/30/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 300528
SWODY1
SPC AC 300526

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TEXAS...AND
FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION WITHIN THE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE PACIFIC APPEARS
LIKELY TO TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS
PERIOD.  IN ADVANCE OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE PACIFIC COAST...MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. AND
CANADA.  AT THE SAME TIME...CONSIDERABLE DEEPENING OF UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED.

WHILE THE MOST PROMINENT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WITHIN THIS LATTER
FEATURE LIKELY WILL DIG FROM NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...A NUMBER OF OTHER
PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH SHARPENING CYCLONIC
FLOW FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  ONE SURFACE FRONT
IS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF ADVANCING OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC AND
GULF COASTS...WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR BECOMING CONFINED TO
FLORIDA...AND PORTIONS OF TEXAS...IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SOUTHWARD
SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
LOW...WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOSTLY WEAK AND SPARSE IN
COVERAGE WITHIN WIDELY SCATTERED AREAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

...FLORIDA...
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN NEAR THE MINIMUM
10 PERCENT THRESHOLD /AT BEST/ FOR A CATEGORICAL THUNDER OUTLOOK
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...DUE TO GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING
SURFACE FRONT.  HOWEVER...LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AS
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS TURN TO NORTHEASTERLY ALONG THE COAST NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS
POSSIBLE...AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KT COULD PROVIDE SOME SUPPORT FOR FAIRLY
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER...DUE TO
THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED ANTICIPATED STORM COVERAGE OVER
INLAND AREAS...SEVERE PROBABILITIES STILL APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW 5
PERCENT.

..KERR/COHEN.. 10/30/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 300037
SWODY1
SPC AC 300035

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING NEAR THE GULF COAST.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ALONG SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

...GULF COAST AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...
LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING
ACROSS GULF COASTAL AREAS MAY PERSIST IN THE PRESENCE OF
RESIDUAL...BUT WEAKENING...INSTABILITY INTO THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME
BEFORE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WHILE SPREADING OFFSHORE.
AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER FORCING ADVANCE ACROSS SOUTH
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PRESENCE OF
WEAK INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...PROBABILITIES...IN GENERAL...APPEAR
NEAR OR BELOW THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A CATEGORICAL
THUNDERSTORM AREA OVER INLAND AREAS.

..KERR.. 10/30/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 291928
SWODY1
SPC AC 291927

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.

...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...
SPORADIC AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG/AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT SETTLING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF STRONGER HEATING NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAVE BOOSTED MLCAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG FROM GA SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN
MS/AL WHERE A FEW BANDS OF STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS ARE
EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES BUT MODEST FLOW/SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING
LAYER. IT IS POSSIBLE A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT CORES
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FROM
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS WILL REMAIN LOW AND MOST STORMS WILL
WEAKEN/DECAY WITH LOSS OF HEATING TOWARD EVENING.

..CARBIN.. 10/29/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY TODAY AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRACK EWD
THROUGH LARGER-SCALE FLOW. THE FIRST EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE ANOTHER MOVES E/SE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
TO UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
STRETCHED FROM ERN NY SWD THROUGH CNTRL VA AND THEN SWWD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES INTO S TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT E OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SWD TO NEAR THE NRN
GULF COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE CAROLINAS. WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND LIMITED FORCING IN CONJUNCTION WITH SBCAPE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1000 J/KG WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES.






000
ACUS02 KWNS 291637
SWODY2
SPC AC 291637

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ON THURSDAY OVER PARTS OF TEXAS...THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION THIS PERIOD
AS A SHARP RIDGE ALIGNS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SEPARATES
TWO DEEP TROUGHS...ONE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE OTHER
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST. THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL EVOLVE AS
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...IT IS A MUCH STRONGER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN
CANADA THAT WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE IMPETUS FOR LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS THE
HIGH-AMPLITUDE PACIFIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO
COASTAL AREAS OF WA/ORE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
WEAK DESTABILIZATION SHOULD DEVELOP COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE
MARGINAL WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT TO AID ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS IN A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST CORRIDOR CENTERED
ON CENTRAL/EASTERN MO.

...TEXAS...
STRONGER DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE RESIDUAL
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX. LIFT ALONG NEW FRONTAL
SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT AROUND THE TIME
OF MAX HEATING. LACK OF STRONGER FORCING AND FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT ANTECEDENT INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW
CONVECTION TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE
SPREADS SOUTH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

...FL...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS MAY ACT TO SUSTAIN LIFT ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL FL AS DAYTIME HEATING AIDS
DESTABILIZATION. MODEST 30KT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD AID IN
UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE WITH A COUPLE OF STRONGER CELLS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...OVERALL FORCING AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY APPEAR TOO
LIMITED TO RESULT IN GREATER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

..CARBIN.. 10/29/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 291637
SWODY2
SPC AC 291637

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ON THURSDAY OVER PARTS OF TEXAS...THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION THIS PERIOD
AS A SHARP RIDGE ALIGNS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SEPARATES
TWO DEEP TROUGHS...ONE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE OTHER
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST. THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL EVOLVE AS
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...IT IS A MUCH STRONGER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN
CANADA THAT WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE IMPETUS FOR LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS THE
HIGH-AMPLITUDE PACIFIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO
COASTAL AREAS OF WA/ORE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
WEAK DESTABILIZATION SHOULD DEVELOP COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE
MARGINAL WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT TO AID ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS IN A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST CORRIDOR CENTERED
ON CENTRAL/EASTERN MO.

...TEXAS...
STRONGER DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE RESIDUAL
FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX. LIFT ALONG NEW FRONTAL
SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT AROUND THE TIME
OF MAX HEATING. LACK OF STRONGER FORCING AND FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT ANTECEDENT INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW
CONVECTION TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE
SPREADS SOUTH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

...FL...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS MAY ACT TO SUSTAIN LIFT ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL FL AS DAYTIME HEATING AIDS
DESTABILIZATION. MODEST 30KT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD AID IN
UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE WITH A COUPLE OF STRONGER CELLS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...OVERALL FORCING AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY APPEAR TOO
LIMITED TO RESULT IN GREATER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

..CARBIN.. 10/29/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 291612
SWODY1
SPC AC 291611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY...PRIMARILY OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND THE GULF COAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY TODAY AS SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRACK EWD
THROUGH LARGER-SCALE FLOW. THE FIRST EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE ANOTHER MOVES E/SE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
TO UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
STRETCHED FROM ERN NY SWD THROUGH CNTRL VA AND THEN SWWD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES INTO S TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT E OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SWD TO NEAR THE NRN
GULF COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WEAKLY UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR FROM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE CAROLINAS. WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND LIMITED FORCING IN CONJUNCTION WITH SBCAPE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1000 J/KG WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..LEITMAN.. 10/29/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 291221
SWODY1
SPC AC 291219

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST...PRIMARILY OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND THE GULF COAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-AIR PATTERN AMPLIFICATION IS FCST OVER CONUS DAY-1. ALTHOUGH
MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NOW OVER JAMES BAY REGION WILL EJECT
NEWD...ATTACHED/ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
APPALACHIANS TO NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLC...NEARLY IN PHASE WITH
INITIALLY SEPARATE/SMALLER PERTURBATION OVER S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- NOW PENETRATING LARGE-SCALE RIDGE OVER NRN
ROCKIES -- ALSO WILL TURN SEWD AND STRENGTHEN...REINFORCING BROAD
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW HEIGHTS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN CONUS.
THAT PROCESS...AND STRENGTHENING OF PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER
NERN PAC...WILL LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION AND SLGT EWD SHIFT OF
WRN-CONUS RIDGE.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED AT 11Z FROM NRN NY SWWD ACROSS WRN
VA...NC MOUNTAINS...CENTRAL AL...WEST-CENTRAL LA...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
TX.  BY 00Z...FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO CAPE COD...SERN VA...SWRN
GA...AND N-CENTRAL GULF...BECOMING DIFFUSE FARTHER W ACROSS S TX.
BY 12Z...FRONT SHOULD CLEAR ALL OF ATLC COAST EXCEPT NRN FL.

...S TX TO VA/CAROLINAS TIDEWATER...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROAD CORRIDOR
NEAR SFC COLD FRONT...AND IN PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR.  PEAK MLCAPE
NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT LESS IN MOST AREAS...WILL KEEP UPDRAFT STRENGTH
MODEST...WITH OCNL BUOYANT DEPTH INTO THERMAL LAYER SUPPORTING
ENOUGH CHARGE PRODUCTION/SEPARATION FOR LTG.  WEAKNESS OF LOW-LEVEL
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AS WELL AS LACK OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE
AND/OR LAPSE RATES...SHOULD KEEP SVR POTENTIAL VERY MINIMAL.

..EDWARDS/BOTHWELL.. 10/29/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 290716
SWODY3
SPC AC 290715

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND PACIFIC COAST STATES...ALONG
WITH SOUTH FLORIDA.

...DISCUSSION...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED ON FRI WITH
BROAD TROUGHS IN THE EAST AND WEST...AND A RIDGE SHIFTING FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS. A STOUT SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
TRACKING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL
YIELD A CP AIR MASS ENVELOPING THE GULF COAST STATES WITH ALL BUT S
FL HAVING NEGLIGIBLE TSTM POTENTIAL.

A PLUME OF RICHER 700-MB DEW POINTS WILL BE DRAWN N FROM
CHIHUAHUA/SONORA WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE
PACIFIC COAST STATES. MEAGER BUOYANCY WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE-RATE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
TROUGH...SCANT BUOYANCY MIGHT RESULT IN SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITHIN PREDOMINANT SHOWERY CONVECTION.

..GRAMS.. 10/29/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 290554
SWODY2
SPC AC 290553

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ON THURSDAY OVER PARTS OF TEXAS...THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
WILL TRACK FROM S-CNTRL CANADA TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
EARLY FRI...WHILE A WEAKER IMPULSE PROGRESSES RAPIDLY FROM THE
MID-MO VALLEY TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL
EFFECTIVELY YIELD A LARGE AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LEAD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM
N FL ACROSS THE FAR NRN GULF AT 12Z/THU. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
EVOLVE SE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY AND SRN GREAT PLAINS BY AFTERNOON.

...TX TO MID-MS VALLEY...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT ABOVE-AVERAGE VARIABILITY WITH THE
DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE WEAK AND OF SHORT DURATION IN THE WAKE OF
THE LEAD FRONT IN THE GULF. ROBUST HEATING WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS
REACH INTO THE 50S OVER TX SHOULD YIELD SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR
ISOLATED STORMS. FARTHER NE...A SEPARATE AREA OF LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION MAY FORM AT PEAK HEATING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...WITH SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES
POSSIBLE.

...N/CNTRL FL...
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS PROBABLE ALONG THE DECAYING
LEAD FRONT WITHIN A WEAKLY BUOYANT AIR MASS.

..GRAMS.. 10/29/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 290544
SWODY1
SPC AC 290542

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST PRIMARILY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND
THE GULF COAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW FIELD ALOFT IS PROGGED FOR
WEDNESDAY...AS THE ERN U.S. TROUGH DEEPENS/EXPANDS AND A SECOND
BEGINS APPROACHING THE W COAST FROM THE ERN PACIFIC.  AS A
RESULT...A RIDGE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY AS
IT SHIFTS EWD...EXPANDING TO ENCOMPASS THE ALL OF WRN NOAM BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE SRN AND ERN U.S. WILL
GRADUALLY ADVANCE OFF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WITH A COOL CONTINENTAL AIRMASS SPREADING ACROSS THE U.S. AS A
SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...THE RISK FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO
A ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINAS/SRN VA WSWWD ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES.  WITH ONLY MODEST SHEAR AND MIXED-LAYER CAPE WITHIN
THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS LARGELY AOB 1000 J/KG...APPRECIABLE SEVERE
RISK IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 10/29/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 290100
SWODY1
SPC AC 290059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED TO REMOVE PAC NW THUNDER LINE

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM NEW YORK/NEW
ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS
EVENING.  SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

...DISCUSSION...
AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCE
EWD THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...A BAND OF FRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE -- FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. SWWD ACROSS THE OH/TN/MID
AND LOWER MS VALLEYS INTO ERN TX.  DESPITE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND OH VALLEY...WEAK INSTABILITY FROM THE TN VALLEY
NEWD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD PROVE INSUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED/STRONGER STORMS.  THUS...WILL REMOVE SEVERE
PROBABILITIES THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 10/29/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 290052
SWODY1
SPC AC 290051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM NEW YORK/NEW
ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOST NUMEROUS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS
EVENING.  SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

...DISCUSSION...
AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCE
EWD THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...A BAND OF FRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE -- FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. SWWD ACROSS THE OH/TN/MID
AND LOWER MS VALLEYS INTO ERN TX.  DESPITE FAIRLY STRONG FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND OH VALLEY...WEAK INSTABILITY FROM THE TN VALLEY
NEWD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD PROVE INSUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED/STRONGER STORMS.  THUS...WILL REMOVE SEVERE
PROBABILITIES THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 10/29/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 282000
SWODY1
SPC AC 281959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OH
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH A PRIMARY HAZARD OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO
PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.

ONLY ONE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PRIOR OUTLOOK AND
INVOLVES THE REMOVAL OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FROM THE MID SOUTH
AND THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.  THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
MID SOUTH AND LOWER MS VALLEY THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON LENDS
CONSIDERABLE DOUBT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH IS ONLY RESULTING IN WEAK BUOYANCY WHEN
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

FARTHER N OVER THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP EWD OVER ERN
OH AND MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF PA/WV/NY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..SMITH.. 10/28/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH AN EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MO/IL.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM LOWER MI INTO IND/KY AND AR.  THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
TODAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.

...NY/PA INTO UPPER OH VALLEY...
A BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST LOWER MI INTO
WESTERN OH/SOUTHEAST IND.  THIS ACTIVITY IS ROUGHLY ALONG A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.  VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION...WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION OVER OH/PA TODAY.  GIVEN
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD ONLY MARGINAL MLCAPE
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.  DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...WIND FIELDS
WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND OF 30-40
KNOTS.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION
LATER TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING
WINDS.  GIVEN THE WEAK THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BELIEVE A
MARGINAL RISK CATEGORY /5 PERCENT SEVERE WIND/HAIL PROBS/ WILL
SUFFICE FOR THIS THREAT.

...TN INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...
NO CHANGE TO EARLIER OUTLOOK.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM IN THIS CORRIDOR LATER TODAY.  LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
RATHER WEAK...BUT AMPLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS.






000
ACUS02 KWNS 281637
SWODY2
SPC AC 281636

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST PRIMARILY OVER THE CAROLINAS AND
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN ERN U.S. LARGER-SCALE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FEATURE A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING NEWD ACROSS QUEBEC TO THE ST LAWRENCE
SEAWAY WHILE AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE MOVES FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO
THE CNTRL-SRN APPALACHIANS AFTER DARK.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS NEAR THE FRONT.  DESPITE
MODERATE WLY TO STRONG SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S...MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AND
LIKELY STUNT UPDRAFT INTENSITY.  AS A RESULT...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL AND PRECLUDE LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

..SMITH.. 10/28/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 281601
SWODY1
SPC AC 281559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO
THE ARKLATEX REGION...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG STORMS WITH A PRIMARY HAZARD OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO
PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH AND ARKLATEX REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH AN EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MO/IL.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM LOWER MI INTO IND/KY AND AR.  THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
TODAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.

...NY/PA INTO UPPER OH VALLEY...
A BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST LOWER MI INTO
WESTERN OH/SOUTHEAST IND.  THIS ACTIVITY IS ROUGHLY ALONG A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.  VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION...WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION OVER OH/PA TODAY.  GIVEN
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD ONLY MARGINAL MLCAPE
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.  DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...WIND FIELDS
WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND OF 30-40
KNOTS.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION
LATER TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING
WINDS.  GIVEN THE WEAK THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BELIEVE A
MARGINAL RISK CATEGORY /5 PERCENT SEVERE WIND/HAIL PROBS/ WILL
SUFFICE FOR THIS THREAT.

...TN INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...
NO CHANGE TO EARLIER OUTLOOK.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM IN THIS CORRIDOR LATER TODAY.  LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
RATHER WEAK...BUT AMPLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS.

..HART/LEITMAN.. 10/28/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 281601
SWODY1
SPC AC 281559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO
THE ARKLATEX REGION...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG STORMS WITH A PRIMARY HAZARD OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO
PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH AND ARKLATEX REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH AN EMBEDDED STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MO/IL.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM LOWER MI INTO IND/KY AND AR.  THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
TODAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.

...NY/PA INTO UPPER OH VALLEY...
A BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEAST LOWER MI INTO
WESTERN OH/SOUTHEAST IND.  THIS ACTIVITY IS ROUGHLY ALONG A SURFACE
COLD FRONT SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.  VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION...WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION OVER OH/PA TODAY.  GIVEN
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD ONLY MARGINAL MLCAPE
VALUES THIS AFTERNOON.  DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...WIND FIELDS
WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND OF 30-40
KNOTS.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION
LATER TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING
WINDS.  GIVEN THE WEAK THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BELIEVE A
MARGINAL RISK CATEGORY /5 PERCENT SEVERE WIND/HAIL PROBS/ WILL
SUFFICE FOR THIS THREAT.

...TN INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...
NO CHANGE TO EARLIER OUTLOOK.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM IN THIS CORRIDOR LATER TODAY.  LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
RATHER WEAK...BUT AMPLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS.

..HART/LEITMAN.. 10/28/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 281247
SWODY1
SPC AC 281245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OH/PA/EXTREME WRN
NY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM LOWER GREAT
LAKES TO ARKLATEX REGION...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A PRIMARY HAZARD OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO KENTUCKY.
MORE ISOLATED AND MARGINAL SEVERE-WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THERE OVER PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH AND ARKLATEX.

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FCST PERIOD.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FEATURE WILL BE STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM 500-MB CYCLONE OVER NRN MN SWD ACROSS
IA THEN SWWD TO ERN KS.  CYCLONE ALOFT WILL PIVOT ENEWD ACROSS LS
THROUGH 00Z THEN REACH SRN TIP OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z.
ATTACHED/PRIMARY VORTICITY LOBE -- CURRENTLY OVER PORTIONS IA/MO --
IS EXPECTED TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AND EJECT NEWD OVER LOWER MI BEFORE
21Z.  THEREAFTER...SECONDARY VORTICITY AXIS NOW EXTENDING NWWD FROM
LOW ACROSS MB WILL PIVOT CYCLONICALLY AROUND BROADER CYCLONIC
GYRE...REACHING LOWER MI NEAR END OF PERIOD.

ASSOCIATED TRIPLE-POINT SFC LOW -- ANALYZED AT 11Z OVER E-CENTRAL LS
-- IS FCST TO DEEPEN AND EJECT NEWD OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH PERIOD.
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED AT 11Z FROM LOW SWD OVER WRN
LOWER MI THEN SWWD ACROSS SRN IL...SERN OK...AND W-CENTRAL TX --
SHOULD MOVE BY 00Z TO WRN NY...ERN KY...MIDDLE TN...AR/LA BORDER
AREA...AND S-CENTRAL TX.  BY END OF PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD REACH NRN
NEW ENGLAND...WRN VA...CENTRAL MS...AND NRN/CENTRAL LA...WHILE
DECELERATING OVER S TX.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES TO KY...
SWATH OF RAIN...WITH SCATTERED-NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS...IS EVIDENT ATTM FROM NWRN OH AND INDIANA SWWD
ACROSS CENTRAL AR...BECOMING MORE PATCHY SWWD TO PORTIONS NE TX.
BROAD FAN OF HIGH CLOUDS -- MUCH OF WHICH IS ANVIL MATERIAL --
ALREADY HAS SPREAD E OF THIS ACTIVITY AND WILL RESTRICT BUT NOT
ENTIRELY ELIMINATE DIURNAL HEATING TODAY ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA.
ALTHOUGH MUTED HEATING WILL TEMPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
CAPE...INSTABILITY STILL WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN TANDEM WITH FRONTAL
LIFT TO SUPPORT STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTIVE BAND MIDDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS AFTN.

DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR AND FRONTAL FORCING EACH WILL BE RELATIVELY
MAXIMIZED OVER THIS CORRIDOR...HELPING TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION FOR SEVERAL HOURS.  THEN...BY EARLY EVENING...ACTIVITY
SHOULD OUTRUN FAVORABLE BUT NARROW PREFRONTAL MOIST PLUME AS SFC
DIABATIC COOLING BEGINS TO ERODE ALREADY MINIMAL CAPE.  UNTIL THAT
OCCURS...A FEW EMBEDDED/FAST-MOVING ELEMENTS...WITH OR WITHOUT
LTG...MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS.

...MID SOUTH TO ARKLATEX AREA...
SVR POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE ISOLATED...MRGL AND CONDITIONAL WITH SWWD
EXTENT...DESPITE PRESENCE OF GREATER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND
DIABATIC SFC HEATING THAN OVER 15%/SLGT RISK AREA.  LONGER
CONVECTIVE DURATION INTO EVENING ALSO IS LIKELY OVER THIS CORRIDOR.
OFFSETTING FACTORS WILL INCLUDE SMALL MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WEAKER MIDLEVEL FLOW...AND WEAKER PREFRONTAL/BOUNDARY-LAYER
FLOW THAT WILL LIMIT BOTH NEAR-SFC CONVERGENCE AND ASSORTED MEASURES
OF VERTICAL SHEAR.

..EDWARDS/BOTHWELL.. 10/28/2014






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