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000
ACUS02 KWNS 201725
SWODY2
SPC AC 201725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NERN TX...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE HILL COUNTRY OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD...WITH AN INCREASINGLY
CONSOLIDATED TROUGH PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.  AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER MO/RED RIVER
VALLEYS INTO AR/TX INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  THIS FRONT WILL FOCUS AN
AREA OF SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT CENTERED OVER TX DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...A MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE ERN PACIFIC
WILL APPROACH THE W COAST LATE...WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING CA AND
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...THE TX HILL COUNTRY ENEWD INTO NERN TX...
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF E TX
DAY 2...AS AFTERNOON HEATING OF A MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
/UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS/ COMMENCES BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SPREADING INTO CENTRAL TX.  WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ABOVE A
DEEPENING/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE WEAK/SEWD-MOVING COOL FRONT.

WITH RELATIVELY MODEST MID-LEVEL WLYS /AROUND 25 TO 30 KT AT H5/ --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL TX WHERE THE MOST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
IS FORECAST...ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED.  COOL
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORT A HAIL RISK WITH
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...WHILE THE DEEP
MIXED LAYER ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

STORMS MAY LOCALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS INTO LATE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ENHANCING THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS LOCALLY.
WITH TIME HOWEVER...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD A FAIRLY
RAPID STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND A SUBSEQUENT
DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/COVERAGE.

..GOSS.. 04/20/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 201725
SWODY2
SPC AC 201725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NERN TX...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE HILL COUNTRY OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD...WITH AN INCREASINGLY
CONSOLIDATED TROUGH PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY.  AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER MO/RED RIVER
VALLEYS INTO AR/TX INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  THIS FRONT WILL FOCUS AN
AREA OF SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT CENTERED OVER TX DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...A MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE ERN PACIFIC
WILL APPROACH THE W COAST LATE...WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING CA AND
THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...THE TX HILL COUNTRY ENEWD INTO NERN TX...
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF E TX
DAY 2...AS AFTERNOON HEATING OF A MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
/UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS/ COMMENCES BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SPREADING INTO CENTRAL TX.  WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ABOVE A
DEEPENING/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE WEAK/SEWD-MOVING COOL FRONT.

WITH RELATIVELY MODEST MID-LEVEL WLYS /AROUND 25 TO 30 KT AT H5/ --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL TX WHERE THE MOST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
IS FORECAST...ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED.  COOL
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORT A HAIL RISK WITH
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...WHILE THE DEEP
MIXED LAYER ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

STORMS MAY LOCALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS INTO LATE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY ENHANCING THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS LOCALLY.
WITH TIME HOWEVER...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD A FAIRLY
RAPID STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND A SUBSEQUENT
DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/COVERAGE.

..GOSS.. 04/20/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 201632
SWODY1
SPC AC 201631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN AND NW AND SW
OK...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM
THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS ACROSS THE CAPROCK AREA TO NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND PERHAPS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
MODEST...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CONUS THROUGH MON...DOWNSTREAM FROM BROAD/FAIRLY DEEP LOW OVER THE
NE PACIFIC. IN THE SRN BRANCH...TROUGH NOW OVER ERN NM SHOULD MOVE
ENE TO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE THIS EVE BEFORE CONTINUING ENE TO ERN
KS/OK EARLY MON...WITH AN INCREASING POSITIVE TILT. WITHIN THE
TROUGH...LEAD IMPULSE OVER WRN OK ATTM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT PIVOTS
NNE INTO ERN KS/WRN MO WHILE UPSTREAM VORT LOBE NOW OVER ERN NM/FAR
W TX TURNS NE TOWARD CNTRL PORTIONS OF OK/N TX. ELSEWHERE...A
STRONGER TROUGH IN THE NRN BRANCH WILL MOVE FROM CNTRL MT TO ERN
ND/NRN MN BY 12Z MON.

FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK AT LWR LVLS. A LOW SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STNRY OVER SE CO/SW KS TODAY...WHILE A NEW CIRCULATION CENTER
EVOLVES ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER E CNTRL NM/W CNTRL TX. THIS
LOW SHOULD EDGE E/NE INTO NW TX EARLY MON. FARTHER N...WEAK NRN
STREAM FRONT STALLED OVER THE CNTRL PLNS SHOULD REDEVELOP NWD THIS
AFTN...BEFORE RESUMING A SEWD ADVANCE TNGT/EARLY MON IN WAKE OF
MT/ND UPR IMPULSE.

LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME DIURNAL STORMS OVER
PARTS OF WRN AND NW TX LATER TODAY...WHERE THE PRESENCE OF ADEQUATE
VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST AN ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR
SVR HAIL/WIND. OTHERWISE...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SVR TSTMS APPEARS LOW.


...SRN PLNS TODAY THROUGH EARLY TNGT...
SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT APPRECIABLE SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY
INVOF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE SEGMENTS EXTENDING SSW FROM SW KS SFC LOW
INTO FAR ERN NM/W TX...IN WAKE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW COVERING
MUCH OF OK AND NW TX. THE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE SEGMENTS...AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES ON THE SW SIDE OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION
AREA...SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR LOW-LVL UPLIFT/STORM
DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTN. UPLIFT AHEAD OF NM VORT LOBE WILL
FURTHER ASSIST DEVELOPMENT.

POSITIVE-TILT OF ERN NM TROUGH WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST /40-50 KT/
DEEP SHEAR DISPLACED FARTHER S AND E ACROSS TX. SUFFICIENT /30-40
KT/ WSWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER...TO PROMOTE STORM
ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR COUPLE SUPERCELLS
CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS OVER WRN AND NW TX. AND...WHILE REGION
WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF PW PLUME EXTENDING N/NE ACROSS CNTRL
AND E TX...AMPLE MOISTURE PW AROUND 1 INCH/ SHOULD EXIST TO BOOST
MLCAPE INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB
TEMPERATURES /AROUND MINUS 13 C/. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MERGE INTO A
SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO THIS EVE...WITH THE CLUSTERS MOVING GENERALLY E
BEFORE WEAKENING OVER NW OR N CNTRL TX LATER TNGT.

UPSLOPE-INDUCED STRATUS AND WARMER MID-LVL TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP
STORM DEVELOPMENT MORE LIMITED WITH SWD EXTENT FROM THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO /INCLUDING A SUPERCELL/ COULD
OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN OVER OR JUST E OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.

..CORFIDI/BUNTING.. 04/20/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 201632
SWODY1
SPC AC 201631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN AND NW AND SW
OK...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM
THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS ACROSS THE CAPROCK AREA TO NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND PERHAPS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
MODEST...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CONUS THROUGH MON...DOWNSTREAM FROM BROAD/FAIRLY DEEP LOW OVER THE
NE PACIFIC. IN THE SRN BRANCH...TROUGH NOW OVER ERN NM SHOULD MOVE
ENE TO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE THIS EVE BEFORE CONTINUING ENE TO ERN
KS/OK EARLY MON...WITH AN INCREASING POSITIVE TILT. WITHIN THE
TROUGH...LEAD IMPULSE OVER WRN OK ATTM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT PIVOTS
NNE INTO ERN KS/WRN MO WHILE UPSTREAM VORT LOBE NOW OVER ERN NM/FAR
W TX TURNS NE TOWARD CNTRL PORTIONS OF OK/N TX. ELSEWHERE...A
STRONGER TROUGH IN THE NRN BRANCH WILL MOVE FROM CNTRL MT TO ERN
ND/NRN MN BY 12Z MON.

FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK AT LWR LVLS. A LOW SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STNRY OVER SE CO/SW KS TODAY...WHILE A NEW CIRCULATION CENTER
EVOLVES ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE OVER E CNTRL NM/W CNTRL TX. THIS
LOW SHOULD EDGE E/NE INTO NW TX EARLY MON. FARTHER N...WEAK NRN
STREAM FRONT STALLED OVER THE CNTRL PLNS SHOULD REDEVELOP NWD THIS
AFTN...BEFORE RESUMING A SEWD ADVANCE TNGT/EARLY MON IN WAKE OF
MT/ND UPR IMPULSE.

LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME DIURNAL STORMS OVER
PARTS OF WRN AND NW TX LATER TODAY...WHERE THE PRESENCE OF ADEQUATE
VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST AN ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR
SVR HAIL/WIND. OTHERWISE...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SVR TSTMS APPEARS LOW.


...SRN PLNS TODAY THROUGH EARLY TNGT...
SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT APPRECIABLE SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY
INVOF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE SEGMENTS EXTENDING SSW FROM SW KS SFC LOW
INTO FAR ERN NM/W TX...IN WAKE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW COVERING
MUCH OF OK AND NW TX. THE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE SEGMENTS...AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES ON THE SW SIDE OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION
AREA...SHOULD SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR LOW-LVL UPLIFT/STORM
DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTN. UPLIFT AHEAD OF NM VORT LOBE WILL
FURTHER ASSIST DEVELOPMENT.

POSITIVE-TILT OF ERN NM TROUGH WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST /40-50 KT/
DEEP SHEAR DISPLACED FARTHER S AND E ACROSS TX. SUFFICIENT /30-40
KT/ WSWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER...TO PROMOTE STORM
ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR COUPLE SUPERCELLS
CLOSER TO THE TROUGH AXIS OVER WRN AND NW TX. AND...WHILE REGION
WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF PW PLUME EXTENDING N/NE ACROSS CNTRL
AND E TX...AMPLE MOISTURE PW AROUND 1 INCH/ SHOULD EXIST TO BOOST
MLCAPE INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB
TEMPERATURES /AROUND MINUS 13 C/. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MERGE INTO A
SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO THIS EVE...WITH THE CLUSTERS MOVING GENERALLY E
BEFORE WEAKENING OVER NW OR N CNTRL TX LATER TNGT.

UPSLOPE-INDUCED STRATUS AND WARMER MID-LVL TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP
STORM DEVELOPMENT MORE LIMITED WITH SWD EXTENT FROM THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO /INCLUDING A SUPERCELL/ COULD
OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN OVER OR JUST E OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.

..CORFIDI/BUNTING.. 04/20/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 201240
SWODY1
SPC AC 201239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS WRN/NWRN TX AND SWRN
OK...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DROP SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS FROM
THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS ACROSS THE CAPROCK AREA TO NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND PERHAPS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
NEARLY ZONAL MIDDLE-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COURSES OVER NRN TIER OF
STATES...PERTURBED PRIMARILY BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD FROM
NRN ROCKIES.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD ALONG CANADIAN BORDER AND
REACH NRN MN BY END OF PERIOD.  SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST AROUND TWO
PROGRESSIVE SRN-STREAM TROUGHS.  FIRST OF THESE CONTAINS EMBEDDED
MID-UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW OFFSHORE CAROLINAS...AND FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY
ENEWD OVER ATLC WATERS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.  UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL SHIFT EWD OVER LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY TODAY...REACHING
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS BY END OF PERIOD.  GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFYING
PERTURBATION -- FORMERLY CONTAINING CLOSED 500-MB LOW -- IS EVIDENT
IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM SRN CO SSWWD ACROSS NM AND NWRN
MEX.  500-MB TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE SLOW WEAKENING TREND...WHILE
ADVANCING ENEWD TO NEAR HLC-CDS-6R6 AXIS BY 00Z AND TOP-OKC-ERV AXIS
BY 12Z.

AT SFC...WEAK LOW NOW EVIDENT OVER SERN CO IS PART OF LEE TROUGHING
REGIME EXTENDING FROM MT TO SW TX.  THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SEWD
TO OK PANHANDLE OR NRN TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT
SWWD OVER NERN NM...TROUGH SSWWD ACROSS PERMIAN BASIN...AND DRYLINE
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED INVOF LEE TROUGH.  BY 12Z...LOW SHOULD REACH
SWRN OK...WEAK FRONT TO SERN NM...DRYLINE/TROUGH SWWD OVER SERN
CORNER OF NM.  INITIALLY SEPARATE FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH
NRN-STREAM TROUGH...AND EXTENDING FROM UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD OVER
NEB...ALSO MAY ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED SVR THREAT.

...W TX TO SWRN OK...
SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTN INVOF LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE...AS WELL AS OVER TX PANHANDLE ON EITHER SIDE OF SFC
TROUGH.  THIS SHOULD OCCUR AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF DIABATIC
DESTABILIZATION THAT WEAKENS CINH...IN WAKE OF CLOUD/PRECIP PLUME
NOW EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN OK TO W-CENTRAL TX.
VERTICAL JUXTAPOSITION OF SLGT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WITH COOLING
TEMPS ALOFT AND SFC HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO PLUME OF 1000-1500
J/KG MLCAPE AHEAD OF DRYLINE BETWEEN 21-00Z.

TIMING OF MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL PUT IT ESSENTIALLY ATOP DRYLINE BY
00Z...BY WHICH TIME 500-MB FLOW AOA 35 KT AND 250-MB WINDS AOA 50 KT
SHOULD BE SE OF OKC-MAF LINE AND SHIFTING EWD IN STEP WITH TROUGH
TRANSLATION.  WEAKER WINDS ALOFT INVOF MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL GREATLY
LIMIT VERTICAL SHEAR AND RESTRICT POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN TRANSIENT
SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS...MOSTLY WITH NWD EXTENT FROM US-380
CORRIDOR IN NW TX.  CAPPING WILL BE MORE OF A LIMITING FACTOR WITH
SWD EXTENT FROM THERE.  MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPEST NEAR
TROUGH ALOFT...WHERE COLDEST 300-600 MB LAYER AIR SHOULD PASS. AS
SUCH...BEST OVERLAP OF AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE PARAMETERS APPEARS
MOST PROBABLE INSIDE 15% WIND/HAIL AND CATEGORICAL SLGT LINE.
THOUGH SOME CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER
PARTS OF N TX AND/OR SRN OK...SVR THREAT SHOULD WANE WITH EWD EXTENT
INTO STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.

..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 04/20/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 201240
SWODY1
SPC AC 201239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS WRN/NWRN TX AND SWRN
OK...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DROP SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS FROM
THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS ACROSS THE CAPROCK AREA TO NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND PERHAPS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
NEARLY ZONAL MIDDLE-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COURSES OVER NRN TIER OF
STATES...PERTURBED PRIMARILY BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD FROM
NRN ROCKIES.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD ALONG CANADIAN BORDER AND
REACH NRN MN BY END OF PERIOD.  SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST AROUND TWO
PROGRESSIVE SRN-STREAM TROUGHS.  FIRST OF THESE CONTAINS EMBEDDED
MID-UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW OFFSHORE CAROLINAS...AND FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY
ENEWD OVER ATLC WATERS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.  UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL SHIFT EWD OVER LOWER-MIDDLE MS VALLEY TODAY...REACHING
CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS BY END OF PERIOD.  GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFYING
PERTURBATION -- FORMERLY CONTAINING CLOSED 500-MB LOW -- IS EVIDENT
IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM SRN CO SSWWD ACROSS NM AND NWRN
MEX.  500-MB TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE SLOW WEAKENING TREND...WHILE
ADVANCING ENEWD TO NEAR HLC-CDS-6R6 AXIS BY 00Z AND TOP-OKC-ERV AXIS
BY 12Z.

AT SFC...WEAK LOW NOW EVIDENT OVER SERN CO IS PART OF LEE TROUGHING
REGIME EXTENDING FROM MT TO SW TX.  THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SEWD
TO OK PANHANDLE OR NRN TX PANHANDLE BY 00Z...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT
SWWD OVER NERN NM...TROUGH SSWWD ACROSS PERMIAN BASIN...AND DRYLINE
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED INVOF LEE TROUGH.  BY 12Z...LOW SHOULD REACH
SWRN OK...WEAK FRONT TO SERN NM...DRYLINE/TROUGH SWWD OVER SERN
CORNER OF NM.  INITIALLY SEPARATE FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH
NRN-STREAM TROUGH...AND EXTENDING FROM UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD OVER
NEB...ALSO MAY ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED SVR THREAT.

...W TX TO SWRN OK...
SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTN INVOF LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE...AS WELL AS OVER TX PANHANDLE ON EITHER SIDE OF SFC
TROUGH.  THIS SHOULD OCCUR AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF DIABATIC
DESTABILIZATION THAT WEAKENS CINH...IN WAKE OF CLOUD/PRECIP PLUME
NOW EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN OK TO W-CENTRAL TX.
VERTICAL JUXTAPOSITION OF SLGT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WITH COOLING
TEMPS ALOFT AND SFC HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO PLUME OF 1000-1500
J/KG MLCAPE AHEAD OF DRYLINE BETWEEN 21-00Z.

TIMING OF MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL PUT IT ESSENTIALLY ATOP DRYLINE BY
00Z...BY WHICH TIME 500-MB FLOW AOA 35 KT AND 250-MB WINDS AOA 50 KT
SHOULD BE SE OF OKC-MAF LINE AND SHIFTING EWD IN STEP WITH TROUGH
TRANSLATION.  WEAKER WINDS ALOFT INVOF MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL GREATLY
LIMIT VERTICAL SHEAR AND RESTRICT POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN TRANSIENT
SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS...MOSTLY WITH NWD EXTENT FROM US-380
CORRIDOR IN NW TX.  CAPPING WILL BE MORE OF A LIMITING FACTOR WITH
SWD EXTENT FROM THERE.  MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPEST NEAR
TROUGH ALOFT...WHERE COLDEST 300-600 MB LAYER AIR SHOULD PASS. AS
SUCH...BEST OVERLAP OF AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE PARAMETERS APPEARS
MOST PROBABLE INSIDE 15% WIND/HAIL AND CATEGORICAL SLGT LINE.
THOUGH SOME CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER
PARTS OF N TX AND/OR SRN OK...SVR THREAT SHOULD WANE WITH EWD EXTENT
INTO STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.

..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 04/20/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 200654
SWODY3
SPC AC 200653

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY FORM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NORTHWEST
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

A NOTABLE CHANGE WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY.  LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NWRN U.S.  BY THE END OF THE PERIOD A
SUBSTANTIAL SPEED MAX WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
AND BEGIN TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS CO/WY.  WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL NOT
TIME PARTICULARLY WELL FOR HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE TROUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS DURING PEAK
HEATING ON DAY3.

MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
BUT STRENGTHENING LLJ SHOULD AID MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO
ADVECT NNWWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO SERN MT WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 40S.  STRONG HEATING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR
SHOULD PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION WHERE SFC
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S...YIELDING SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG.  WHILE ABSOLUTE MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MARGINAL...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  FOR THIS REASON...ALONG
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT SEVERE
PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WITH HIGH-BASED CONVECTION.

...ERN U.S...

WEAK POSITIVE-TILT LONG-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD MIGRATE ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD.  MODEST MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST AHEAD OF WEAK SFC FRONT FOR ISOLATED-SCT
TSTMS WITHIN A BROAD CORRIDOR FROM THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY OF
THE UPPER TX COAST...NEWD INTO THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEAR INADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

..DARROW.. 04/20/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 200654
SWODY3
SPC AC 200653

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY FORM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NORTHWEST
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

A NOTABLE CHANGE WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO
STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY.  LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NWRN U.S.  BY THE END OF THE PERIOD A
SUBSTANTIAL SPEED MAX WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
AND BEGIN TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS CO/WY.  WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL NOT
TIME PARTICULARLY WELL FOR HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE TROUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS DURING PEAK
HEATING ON DAY3.

MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
BUT STRENGTHENING LLJ SHOULD AID MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO
ADVECT NNWWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO SERN MT WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 40S.  STRONG HEATING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR
SHOULD PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION WHERE SFC
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S...YIELDING SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG.  WHILE ABSOLUTE MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MARGINAL...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  FOR THIS REASON...ALONG
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT SEVERE
PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WITH HIGH-BASED CONVECTION.

...ERN U.S...

WEAK POSITIVE-TILT LONG-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD MIGRATE ACROSS THE ERN
U.S. DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD.  MODEST MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST AHEAD OF WEAK SFC FRONT FOR ISOLATED-SCT
TSTMS WITHIN A BROAD CORRIDOR FROM THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY OF
THE UPPER TX COAST...NEWD INTO THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC.
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY APPEAR INADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

..DARROW.. 04/20/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 200541
SWODY1
SPC AC 200539

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
TODAY...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC MAY UNDERGO
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC COAST.  BUT THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN SPLIT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE DOWNSTREAM U.S...WITH ONE ZONAL BRANCH...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES...REMAINING A BIT STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED BUT WEAKER BRANCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...ONE PROMINENT WAVE AND EMBEDDED CLOSED
LOW APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS...WHILE ANOTHER WAVE...COMPRISED OF A NUMBER OF SMALLER SCALE
IMPULSES...GRADUALLY DEVELOPS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO AND
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  ALTHOUGH SUBSTANTIAL DRYING HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD
SYSTEM...A NARROW PLUME OF AT LEAST MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
MEXICAN GULF COAST AREA THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...SEASONABLY WEAK TO MODEST MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW...AHEAD OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ALONG A STALLING FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-BRANCH IMPULSE NOW CROSSING ONTARIO.

THIS MOISTENING...IN THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY STEEP LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.  HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY.  A BROAD EMBEDDED CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION...WITH SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES PIVOTING AROUND IT...
APPEARS LIKELY TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  SOME VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS
CONCERNING JUST HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS.  FURTHERMORE...THE IMPACT
OF EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION /EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW MEXICO/ ON DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS UNCLEAR.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING APPEARS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BENEATH THE -14 TO -16C 500 MB COLD CORE OVERSPREADING THE
REGION...THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 1000
J/KG.

MID/UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER MODEST IN STRENGTH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...RESULTING IN MARGINAL
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AT BEST.
HOWEVER...AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING...IT APPEARS POSSIBLE
THAT THE PROGRESSION OF THE CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE REGION COULD BE TIMED FAVORABLY TO ALLOW FOR VEERING
MID/UPPER FLOW TO INCREASE SHEAR SUFFICIENTLY TO ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT.  SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION...CONTRIBUTING THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AND EAST/SOUTHEAST OF
THE PLAINVIEW/LUBBOCK AREA.

..KERR/MOSIER.. 04/20/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 200541
SWODY1
SPC AC 200539

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
TODAY...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING WITHIN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC MAY UNDERGO
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION DURING THIS PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC COAST.  BUT THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN SPLIT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE DOWNSTREAM U.S...WITH ONE ZONAL BRANCH...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES...REMAINING A BIT STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN A
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED BUT WEAKER BRANCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...ONE PROMINENT WAVE AND EMBEDDED CLOSED
LOW APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS...WHILE ANOTHER WAVE...COMPRISED OF A NUMBER OF SMALLER SCALE
IMPULSES...GRADUALLY DEVELOPS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO AND
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  ALTHOUGH SUBSTANTIAL DRYING HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD
SYSTEM...A NARROW PLUME OF AT LEAST MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
MEXICAN GULF COAST AREA THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...SEASONABLY WEAK TO MODEST MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW...AHEAD OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ALONG A STALLING FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-BRANCH IMPULSE NOW CROSSING ONTARIO.

THIS MOISTENING...IN THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY STEEP LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.  HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY.  A BROAD EMBEDDED CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION...WITH SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES PIVOTING AROUND IT...
APPEARS LIKELY TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  SOME VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS
CONCERNING JUST HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS.  FURTHERMORE...THE IMPACT
OF EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION /EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEW MEXICO/ ON DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS UNCLEAR.
HOWEVER...AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING APPEARS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BENEATH THE -14 TO -16C 500 MB COLD CORE OVERSPREADING THE
REGION...THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 1000
J/KG.

MID/UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER MODEST IN STRENGTH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...RESULTING IN MARGINAL
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AT BEST.
HOWEVER...AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING...IT APPEARS POSSIBLE
THAT THE PROGRESSION OF THE CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE REGION COULD BE TIMED FAVORABLY TO ALLOW FOR VEERING
MID/UPPER FLOW TO INCREASE SHEAR SUFFICIENTLY TO ENHANCE STORM
DEVELOPMENT.  SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION...CONTRIBUTING THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AND EAST/SOUTHEAST OF
THE PLAINVIEW/LUBBOCK AREA.

..KERR/MOSIER.. 04/20/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 200522
SWODY2
SPC AC 200521

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX
INTO NERN TX...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE HILL COUNTRY OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

...TX...

SWRN U.S./NRN MEXICO SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD BEFORE TURNING SE AND
DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 22/00Z.  STRONGEST FLOW AT MID
LEVELS SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS CNTRL TX TOWARD LA WHICH SHOULD
ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR.  WHILE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN FOCUSED PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION EARLY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...STRONG HEATING OVER CNTRL TX IS EXPECTED TO PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ASSIST SCT CONVECTION
ACROSS OK INTO THE RED RIVER REGION OF NORTH TX.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AND PROPAGATE/DEVELOP SEWD
DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO TURN SEWD.
HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING ACROSS WCNTRL TX SHOULD WEAKEN CAP
SUFFICIENTLY FOR TSTM INITIATION ALONG WEAK BOUNDARY BY 20Z.  20Z
NAM FORECAST SOUNDING AT DYS EXHIBITS 2000 J/KG SBCAPE WITH AT LEAST
30KT SFC-6KM SHEAR.  WHILE SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3KM IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE WEAK...HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE
HEAT OF THE DAY WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.  ONE NEGATIVE
IS THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY ISOLATED.  SELY STORM MOTION SHOULD ALLOW TSTMS TO
SPREAD TOWARD CNTRL TX BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.

..DARROW.. 04/20/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 200522
SWODY2
SPC AC 200521

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX
INTO NERN TX...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE HILL COUNTRY OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

...TX...

SWRN U.S./NRN MEXICO SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD BEFORE TURNING SE AND
DIGGING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 22/00Z.  STRONGEST FLOW AT MID
LEVELS SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS CNTRL TX TOWARD LA WHICH SHOULD
ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR.  WHILE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN FOCUSED PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION EARLY BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...STRONG HEATING OVER CNTRL TX IS EXPECTED TO PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD WEAK WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ASSIST SCT CONVECTION
ACROSS OK INTO THE RED RIVER REGION OF NORTH TX.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AND PROPAGATE/DEVELOP SEWD
DURING THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO TURN SEWD.
HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING ACROSS WCNTRL TX SHOULD WEAKEN CAP
SUFFICIENTLY FOR TSTM INITIATION ALONG WEAK BOUNDARY BY 20Z.  20Z
NAM FORECAST SOUNDING AT DYS EXHIBITS 2000 J/KG SBCAPE WITH AT LEAST
30KT SFC-6KM SHEAR.  WHILE SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3KM IS EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE WEAK...HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE
HEAT OF THE DAY WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.  ONE NEGATIVE
IS THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY ISOLATED.  SELY STORM MOTION SHOULD ALLOW TSTMS TO
SPREAD TOWARD CNTRL TX BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.

..DARROW.. 04/20/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 200049
SWODY1
SPC AC 200047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THE SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT...ACCOMPANYING A CLUSTER OF INTENSE
STORMS ADVANCING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS...IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY SPREADS ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY
THIS EVENING.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES/PLAINS...
AN INTENSE STORM CLUSTER NOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE PECOS
VALLEY REMAINS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ONGOING CONVECTION.  AND...WITH
ONLY SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 FLOW TO AROUND 30
KTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...DRIER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE EAST PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY RAPID
WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THROUGH 02-03Z.

OTHERWISE...WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION MAY CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT.  OTHER GENERALLY WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF LARGER SCALE
UPPER TROUGHING.  MOST OTHER ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND ROCKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
02-04Z...WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

...GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA/NE FLORIDA COAST...
SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LINGERS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...THE RISK FOR CONTINUING
DEVELOPMENT INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

..KERR.. 04/20/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 200049
SWODY1
SPC AC 200047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THE SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT...ACCOMPANYING A CLUSTER OF INTENSE
STORMS ADVANCING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS...IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY SPREADS ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY
THIS EVENING.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES/PLAINS...
AN INTENSE STORM CLUSTER NOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE PECOS
VALLEY REMAINS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ONGOING CONVECTION.  AND...WITH
ONLY SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 FLOW TO AROUND 30
KTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...DRIER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE EAST PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY RAPID
WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY THROUGH 02-03Z.

OTHERWISE...WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION MAY CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT.  OTHER GENERALLY WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IN ADVANCE OF LARGER SCALE
UPPER TROUGHING.  MOST OTHER ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND ROCKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
02-04Z...WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.

...GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA/NE FLORIDA COAST...
SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LINGERS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...THE RISK FOR CONTINUING
DEVELOPMENT INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

..KERR.. 04/20/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 200000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200000
TXZ000-200130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0372
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...TRANS-PECOS...PECOS VALLEY OF W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 200000Z - 200130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED MCV WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A
NEAR-TERM RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AMIDST PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER INSTABILITY
WITH ERN EXTENT.

DISCUSSION...AN MCV CENTERED OVER SRN REEVES COUNTY WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS ARCING INTO NERN PRESIDIO COUNTY HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF
RADAR-ALGORITHM DERIVED LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH STORM-RELATIVE INBOUND
VELOCITIES UP TO AROUND 90 KT. ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM SURFACE DEW
POINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE MID 40S AT KFST...THESE PROBABLE SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA WITHIN THE HOUR.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MINIMAL MLCAPE EXISTS E OF THE
PECOS RIVER. EVEN SO...STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND ALREADY
ESTABLISHED STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION SUGGEST AT LEAST A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK MAY EXTEND TO A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION FINALLY YIELD DISSIPATION OF
ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

..GRAMS/MEAD.. 04/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   31210373 31310367 31620261 31570203 31080131 30290112
            29710137 29010310 29090338 30090406 31210373






000
ACUS11 KWNS 200000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200000
TXZ000-200130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0372
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...TRANS-PECOS...PECOS VALLEY OF W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 200000Z - 200130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED MCV WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A
NEAR-TERM RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AMIDST PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER INSTABILITY
WITH ERN EXTENT.

DISCUSSION...AN MCV CENTERED OVER SRN REEVES COUNTY WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS ARCING INTO NERN PRESIDIO COUNTY HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF
RADAR-ALGORITHM DERIVED LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH STORM-RELATIVE INBOUND
VELOCITIES UP TO AROUND 90 KT. ALTHOUGH DOWNSTREAM SURFACE DEW
POINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE MID 40S AT KFST...THESE PROBABLE SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA WITHIN THE HOUR.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MINIMAL MLCAPE EXISTS E OF THE
PECOS RIVER. EVEN SO...STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AND ALREADY
ESTABLISHED STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION SUGGEST AT LEAST A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK MAY EXTEND TO A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BEFORE
NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION FINALLY YIELD DISSIPATION OF
ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

..GRAMS/MEAD.. 04/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   31210373 31310367 31620261 31570203 31080131 30290112
            29710137 29010310 29090338 30090406 31210373





000
ACUS11 KWNS 192023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192022
TXZ000-NMZ000-192215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0371
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR W TX AND EXTREME SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 192022Z - 192215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM FAR WRN
TX THROUGH EXTREME SERN NM INTO EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
IS UNDERWAY OVER FAR WRN TX IN WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE MOVING NEWD
THROUGH ERN NM AND WRN TX. NEAR SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING 500-1000
J/KG MLCAPE AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 70S. OROGRAPHIC FORCING
AND DEEP ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD WITHIN
SERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING NEWD INTO WRN TX AND SRN NM. THOUGH FLOW THROUGH THE
LOWEST 3 KM IS MODEST...40-45 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAY SUPPORT AT
LEAST WEAK-MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.
ISOLATED HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CORES.

..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 04/19/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

LAT...LON   31140563 31480605 32000648 32170569 31980455 31530397
            31060390 30710409 30550437 30500469 30640494 30840527
            31140563





000
ACUS11 KWNS 192023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192022
TXZ000-NMZ000-192215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0371
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR W TX AND EXTREME SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 192022Z - 192215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM FAR WRN
TX THROUGH EXTREME SERN NM INTO EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
IS UNDERWAY OVER FAR WRN TX IN WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE MOVING NEWD
THROUGH ERN NM AND WRN TX. NEAR SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING 500-1000
J/KG MLCAPE AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 70S. OROGRAPHIC FORCING
AND DEEP ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD WITHIN
SERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING NEWD INTO WRN TX AND SRN NM. THOUGH FLOW THROUGH THE
LOWEST 3 KM IS MODEST...40-45 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAY SUPPORT AT
LEAST WEAK-MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.
ISOLATED HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CORES.

..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 04/19/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

LAT...LON   31140563 31480605 32000648 32170569 31980455 31530397
            31060390 30710409 30550437 30500469 30640494 30840527
            31140563





000
ACUS11 KWNS 192023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192022
TXZ000-NMZ000-192215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0371
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR W TX AND EXTREME SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 192022Z - 192215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM FAR WRN
TX THROUGH EXTREME SERN NM INTO EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
IS UNDERWAY OVER FAR WRN TX IN WAKE OF LEAD IMPULSE MOVING NEWD
THROUGH ERN NM AND WRN TX. NEAR SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING 500-1000
J/KG MLCAPE AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 70S. OROGRAPHIC FORCING
AND DEEP ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD WITHIN
SERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING NEWD INTO WRN TX AND SRN NM. THOUGH FLOW THROUGH THE
LOWEST 3 KM IS MODEST...40-45 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAY SUPPORT AT
LEAST WEAK-MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.
ISOLATED HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CORES.

..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 04/19/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...

LAT...LON   31140563 31480605 32000648 32170569 31980455 31530397
            31060390 30710409 30550437 30500469 30640494 30840527
            31140563






000
ACUS01 KWNS 191941
SWODY1
SPC AC 191940

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN FAR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY EXCEED
SEVERE LIMITS.

...DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED PER PRIOR FORECAST
REASONING...AND THUS LITTLE CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE OUTLOOK ATTM
ASIDE FROM A FEW VERY MINOR LINE ADJUSTMENTS.  EXCEPT FOR AN
ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE EVENT POSSIBLY OCCURRING INVOF THE FL E
COAST...OR LATER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED/LOW-END SEVERE RISK REMAINS OVER FAR W TX AND ADJACENT SERN
NM.  HERE...ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT EVOLVE
ACROSS/SPREAD NEWD INTO THE 5% RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

..GOSS.. 04/19/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TWO-STREAM...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. IN THE SRN BRANCH...NE GULF OF MEXICO LOW
SHOULD CONTINUE ENE TO OFF THE GA CST BY EARLY SUN AS UPSTREAM
TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA BROADENS AND REACHES ERN NM/FAR W
TX. WITHIN THE LATTER TROUGH...LEAD IMPULSE NOW NEARING EL PASO
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES NE TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLNS THIS
AFTN...WHILE UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER NOW OVER NRN SONORA CONTINUES
ENE INTO SRN NM.

AT LWR LVLS...SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY E OFF THE NE FL CST
LATER TODAY. DEEPER WIND SHIFT LINE/COLD FRONT TRAILING S FROM THE
LOW HAS ALREADY MOVED OFF THE E CST OF FL...BUT A
SHALLOWER/REINFORCING WIND SHIFT WILL PROGRESS E/SE ACROSS NRN AND
CNTRL PARTS OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTN. IN THE CNTRL U.S...WEAK COLD
FRONT ATTENDANT TO NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER ND SHOULD SETTLE S/SE INTO
SRN NEB/NW KS BEFORE BECOMING STNRY LATER TODAY/TNGT.

WHILE TSTMS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN SUB-SVR OVER THE NATION
THIS PERIOD...SOME RISK FOR SVR WEATHER WILL EXIST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPR SYSTEMS AFFECTING FAR W TX/SRN NM. A MORE
CONDITIONAL/ISOLD SVR RISK WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS FORMING ALONG
FRONTS OVER THE CNTRL PLNS AND OVER ERN FL.

...SRN NM/FAR W TX TODAY THROUGH THIS EVE...
TSTMS NOW OVER SRN NM/FAR W TX ARE ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE
OF SW U.S. UPR TROUGH. THE STORMS SHOULD STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY WITH
CONTINUED SFC HEATING AND THE INFLOW OF MODEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE
ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLNS. ALTHOUGH THE UPR
IMPULSE/ASCENT WILL MOVE NE BEYOND AXIS OF GREATEST MOISTURE RETURN
LATER TODAY...GIVEN RESIDUAL BAND OF 40-50 KT SWLY MID-LVL FLOW AND
RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STORMS/SMALL CLUSTERS WITH A RISK FOR SVR HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND. AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF STORMS MAY AFFECT MUCH THE SAME REGION
TNGT/EARLY SUN AS UPSTREAM VORT APPROACHES FROM NRN SONORA.

...CNTRL PLNS THIS AFN/EVE...
SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LATE DAY TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
STALLING FRONT OVER NW KS AND SRN NEB. BUT THE REGION LARGELY WILL
BE SUBJECT TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THIS EVE. AND...WHILE LOW TO
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP FOR STORMS...MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED. SOME INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/STRENGTH MAY OCCUR
TNGT/EARLY SUN OVER PARTS OF NEB AS NOCTURNAL LLJ INCREASES AND AS W
TX UPR IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION. WHILE AN ISOLD INSTANCE OF
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR...ATTM IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT COVERAGE
JUSTIFIES INCLUSION OF 5% PROBABILITIES.

...ERN FL THIS AFTN...
ISOLD DIURNAL STORMS MAY FORM ALONG TRAILING WIND SHIFT LINE/COLD
FRONT CROSSING E CNTRL FL THIS AFTN BEFORE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE. GIVEN SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...A STORM OR TWO COULD GROW SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
TO POSE A BRIEF RISK FOR SVR HAIL OR WIND. THE OVERALL
THREAT...HOWEVER...APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF 5%
PROBABILITIES GIVEN WEAK LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE SUGGESTED BY AREA VWP
DATA.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 191941
SWODY1
SPC AC 191940

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN FAR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY EXCEED
SEVERE LIMITS.

...DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AS EXPECTED PER PRIOR FORECAST
REASONING...AND THUS LITTLE CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE OUTLOOK ATTM
ASIDE FROM A FEW VERY MINOR LINE ADJUSTMENTS.  EXCEPT FOR AN
ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE EVENT POSSIBLY OCCURRING INVOF THE FL E
COAST...OR LATER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED/LOW-END SEVERE RISK REMAINS OVER FAR W TX AND ADJACENT SERN
NM.  HERE...ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT EVOLVE
ACROSS/SPREAD NEWD INTO THE 5% RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

..GOSS.. 04/19/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TWO-STREAM...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. IN THE SRN BRANCH...NE GULF OF MEXICO LOW
SHOULD CONTINUE ENE TO OFF THE GA CST BY EARLY SUN AS UPSTREAM
TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA BROADENS AND REACHES ERN NM/FAR W
TX. WITHIN THE LATTER TROUGH...LEAD IMPULSE NOW NEARING EL PASO
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES NE TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLNS THIS
AFTN...WHILE UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER NOW OVER NRN SONORA CONTINUES
ENE INTO SRN NM.

AT LWR LVLS...SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY E OFF THE NE FL CST
LATER TODAY. DEEPER WIND SHIFT LINE/COLD FRONT TRAILING S FROM THE
LOW HAS ALREADY MOVED OFF THE E CST OF FL...BUT A
SHALLOWER/REINFORCING WIND SHIFT WILL PROGRESS E/SE ACROSS NRN AND
CNTRL PARTS OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTN. IN THE CNTRL U.S...WEAK COLD
FRONT ATTENDANT TO NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER ND SHOULD SETTLE S/SE INTO
SRN NEB/NW KS BEFORE BECOMING STNRY LATER TODAY/TNGT.

WHILE TSTMS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN SUB-SVR OVER THE NATION
THIS PERIOD...SOME RISK FOR SVR WEATHER WILL EXIST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPR SYSTEMS AFFECTING FAR W TX/SRN NM. A MORE
CONDITIONAL/ISOLD SVR RISK WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS FORMING ALONG
FRONTS OVER THE CNTRL PLNS AND OVER ERN FL.

...SRN NM/FAR W TX TODAY THROUGH THIS EVE...
TSTMS NOW OVER SRN NM/FAR W TX ARE ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE
OF SW U.S. UPR TROUGH. THE STORMS SHOULD STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY WITH
CONTINUED SFC HEATING AND THE INFLOW OF MODEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE
ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLNS. ALTHOUGH THE UPR
IMPULSE/ASCENT WILL MOVE NE BEYOND AXIS OF GREATEST MOISTURE RETURN
LATER TODAY...GIVEN RESIDUAL BAND OF 40-50 KT SWLY MID-LVL FLOW AND
RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STORMS/SMALL CLUSTERS WITH A RISK FOR SVR HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND. AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF STORMS MAY AFFECT MUCH THE SAME REGION
TNGT/EARLY SUN AS UPSTREAM VORT APPROACHES FROM NRN SONORA.

...CNTRL PLNS THIS AFN/EVE...
SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LATE DAY TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
STALLING FRONT OVER NW KS AND SRN NEB. BUT THE REGION LARGELY WILL
BE SUBJECT TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THIS EVE. AND...WHILE LOW TO
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP FOR STORMS...MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED. SOME INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/STRENGTH MAY OCCUR
TNGT/EARLY SUN OVER PARTS OF NEB AS NOCTURNAL LLJ INCREASES AND AS W
TX UPR IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION. WHILE AN ISOLD INSTANCE OF
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR...ATTM IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT COVERAGE
JUSTIFIES INCLUSION OF 5% PROBABILITIES.

...ERN FL THIS AFTN...
ISOLD DIURNAL STORMS MAY FORM ALONG TRAILING WIND SHIFT LINE/COLD
FRONT CROSSING E CNTRL FL THIS AFTN BEFORE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE. GIVEN SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...A STORM OR TWO COULD GROW SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
TO POSE A BRIEF RISK FOR SVR HAIL OR WIND. THE OVERALL
THREAT...HOWEVER...APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF 5%
PROBABILITIES GIVEN WEAK LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE SUGGESTED BY AREA VWP
DATA.





000
ACUS02 KWNS 191731
SWODY2
SPC AC 191730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN HALF
OF TX...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS AREA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...PERHAPS SPREADING ACROSS THE
MID-MISSOURI VALLEY TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED -- BUT STRONGER -- STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN HALF OF TEXAS AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...WHERE SEVERE POTENTIAL -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS -- WILL EXIST WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A MUCH FASTER BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NRN U.S. AND SRN CANADA...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE RISK WILL REMAIN
FARTHER S...MAINLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WHERE A
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE GRADUAL EWD PROGRESS.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LEE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM...WITH THIS
TROUGH/DRYLINE FEATURE PROGGED TO FOCUS ISOLATED STRONG/LOCALLY
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF TX AND
POSSIBLY SWRN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ELSEWHERE
OUTSIDE OF THE ROCKIES/PLAINS VICINITY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION AND VICINITY...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS -- ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE SRN
ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP VERY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE N TX/SWRN OK
VICINITY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST
OF ROCKIES/PLAINS AREA WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...AND THUS
SEVERE WEATHER IS LARGELY UNLIKELY.

AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF TX AND POSSIBLY
INTO SWRN OK...WHERE ISOLATED SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS DIURNAL HEATING OF A MODESTLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER /50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS/ COMMENCES...DEVELOPMENT OF
500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE PROGGED OVER W TX.  EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
STORMS IS EXPECTED...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION
ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL ASCENT INVOF THE TROUGH/DRYLINE.  THE STRONGEST
CELLS -- AND THUS THE BULK OF ANY SEVERE RISK -- IS FORECAST S OF
THE RED RIVER WHERE...FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONGER /CONTRIBUTING
TO 30 TO 40 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR/.  WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...PRIMARY SEVERE RISK WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH LOCALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE.  SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING/STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.

..GOSS.. 04/19/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 191731
SWODY2
SPC AC 191730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN HALF
OF TX...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS AREA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...PERHAPS SPREADING ACROSS THE
MID-MISSOURI VALLEY TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED -- BUT STRONGER -- STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN HALF OF TEXAS AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...WHERE SEVERE POTENTIAL -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS -- WILL EXIST WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A MUCH FASTER BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NRN U.S. AND SRN CANADA...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE RISK WILL REMAIN
FARTHER S...MAINLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WHERE A
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE GRADUAL EWD PROGRESS.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK LEE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM...WITH THIS
TROUGH/DRYLINE FEATURE PROGGED TO FOCUS ISOLATED STRONG/LOCALLY
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF TX AND
POSSIBLY SWRN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ELSEWHERE
OUTSIDE OF THE ROCKIES/PLAINS VICINITY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION AND VICINITY...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS -- ONGOING OVER PARTS OF THE SRN
ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP VERY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE N TX/SWRN OK
VICINITY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND
INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST
OF ROCKIES/PLAINS AREA WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...AND THUS
SEVERE WEATHER IS LARGELY UNLIKELY.

AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF TX AND POSSIBLY
INTO SWRN OK...WHERE ISOLATED SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AS DIURNAL HEATING OF A MODESTLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER /50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS/ COMMENCES...DEVELOPMENT OF
500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE PROGGED OVER W TX.  EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
STORMS IS EXPECTED...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THIS REGION
ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL ASCENT INVOF THE TROUGH/DRYLINE.  THE STRONGEST
CELLS -- AND THUS THE BULK OF ANY SEVERE RISK -- IS FORECAST S OF
THE RED RIVER WHERE...FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONGER /CONTRIBUTING
TO 30 TO 40 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR/.  WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...PRIMARY SEVERE RISK WILL BE LARGE HAIL...WITH LOCALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE.  SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING/STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.

..GOSS.. 04/19/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 191608
SWODY1
SPC AC 191607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN FAR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY EXCEED
SEVERE LIMITS.

...SYNOPSIS...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TWO-STREAM...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. IN THE SRN BRANCH...NE GULF OF MEXICO LOW
SHOULD CONTINUE ENE TO OFF THE GA CST BY EARLY SUN AS UPSTREAM
TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA BROADENS AND REACHES ERN NM/FAR W
TX. WITHIN THE LATTER TROUGH...LEAD IMPULSE NOW NEARING EL PASO
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES NE TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLNS THIS
AFTN...WHILE UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER NOW OVER NRN SONORA CONTINUES
ENE INTO SRN NM.

AT LWR LVLS...SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY E OFF THE NE FL CST
LATER TODAY. DEEPER WIND SHIFT LINE/COLD FRONT TRAILING S FROM THE
LOW HAS ALREADY MOVED OFF THE E CST OF FL...BUT A
SHALLOWER/REINFORCING WIND SHIFT WILL PROGRESS E/SE ACROSS NRN AND
CNTRL PARTS OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTN. IN THE CNTRL U.S...WEAK COLD
FRONT ATTENDANT TO NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER ND SHOULD SETTLE S/SE INTO
SRN NEB/NW KS BEFORE BECOMING STNRY LATER TODAY/TNGT.

WHILE TSTMS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN SUB-SVR OVER THE NATION
THIS PERIOD...SOME RISK FOR SVR WEATHER WILL EXIST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPR SYSTEMS AFFECTING FAR W TX/SRN NM. A MORE
CONDITIONAL/ISOLD SVR RISK WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS FORMING ALONG
FRONTS OVER THE CNTRL PLNS AND OVER ERN FL.

...SRN NM/FAR W TX TODAY THROUGH THIS EVE...
TSTMS NOW OVER SRN NM/FAR W TX ARE ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE
OF SW U.S. UPR TROUGH. THE STORMS SHOULD STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY WITH
CONTINUED SFC HEATING AND THE INFLOW OF MODEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE
ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLNS. ALTHOUGH THE UPR
IMPULSE/ASCENT WILL MOVE NE BEYOND AXIS OF GREATEST MOISTURE RETURN
LATER TODAY...GIVEN RESIDUAL BAND OF 40-50 KT SWLY MID-LVL FLOW AND
RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STORMS/SMALL CLUSTERS WITH A RISK FOR SVR HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND. AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF STORMS MAY AFFECT MUCH THE SAME REGION
TNGT/EARLY SUN AS UPSTREAM VORT APPROACHES FROM NRN SONORA.

...CNTRL PLNS THIS AFN/EVE...
SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LATE DAY TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
STALLING FRONT OVER NW KS AND SRN NEB. BUT THE REGION LARGELY WILL
BE SUBJECT TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THIS EVE. AND...WHILE LOW TO
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP FOR STORMS...MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED. SOME INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/STRENGTH MAY OCCUR
TNGT/EARLY SUN OVER PARTS OF NEB AS NOCTURNAL LLJ INCREASES AND AS W
TX UPR IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION. WHILE AN ISOLD INSTANCE OF
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR...ATTM IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT COVERAGE
JUSTIFIES INCLUSION OF 5% PROBABILITIES.

...ERN FL THIS AFTN...
ISOLD DIURNAL STORMS MAY FORM ALONG TRAILING WIND SHIFT LINE/COLD
FRONT CROSSING E CNTRL FL THIS AFTN BEFORE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE. GIVEN SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...A STORM OR TWO COULD GROW SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
TO POSE A BRIEF RISK FOR SVR HAIL OR WIND. THE OVERALL
THREAT...HOWEVER...APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF 5%
PROBABILITIES GIVEN WEAK LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE SUGGESTED BY AREA VWP
DATA.

..CORFIDI/BUNTING.. 04/19/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 191608
SWODY1
SPC AC 191607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN FAR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY EXCEED
SEVERE LIMITS.

...SYNOPSIS...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TWO-STREAM...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. IN THE SRN BRANCH...NE GULF OF MEXICO LOW
SHOULD CONTINUE ENE TO OFF THE GA CST BY EARLY SUN AS UPSTREAM
TROUGH NOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA BROADENS AND REACHES ERN NM/FAR W
TX. WITHIN THE LATTER TROUGH...LEAD IMPULSE NOW NEARING EL PASO
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES NE TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLNS THIS
AFTN...WHILE UPSTREAM VORTICITY CENTER NOW OVER NRN SONORA CONTINUES
ENE INTO SRN NM.

AT LWR LVLS...SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY E OFF THE NE FL CST
LATER TODAY. DEEPER WIND SHIFT LINE/COLD FRONT TRAILING S FROM THE
LOW HAS ALREADY MOVED OFF THE E CST OF FL...BUT A
SHALLOWER/REINFORCING WIND SHIFT WILL PROGRESS E/SE ACROSS NRN AND
CNTRL PARTS OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTN. IN THE CNTRL U.S...WEAK COLD
FRONT ATTENDANT TO NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER ND SHOULD SETTLE S/SE INTO
SRN NEB/NW KS BEFORE BECOMING STNRY LATER TODAY/TNGT.

WHILE TSTMS FOR THE MOST PART WILL REMAIN SUB-SVR OVER THE NATION
THIS PERIOD...SOME RISK FOR SVR WEATHER WILL EXIST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPR SYSTEMS AFFECTING FAR W TX/SRN NM. A MORE
CONDITIONAL/ISOLD SVR RISK WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS FORMING ALONG
FRONTS OVER THE CNTRL PLNS AND OVER ERN FL.

...SRN NM/FAR W TX TODAY THROUGH THIS EVE...
TSTMS NOW OVER SRN NM/FAR W TX ARE ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE
OF SW U.S. UPR TROUGH. THE STORMS SHOULD STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY WITH
CONTINUED SFC HEATING AND THE INFLOW OF MODEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE
ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLNS. ALTHOUGH THE UPR
IMPULSE/ASCENT WILL MOVE NE BEYOND AXIS OF GREATEST MOISTURE RETURN
LATER TODAY...GIVEN RESIDUAL BAND OF 40-50 KT SWLY MID-LVL FLOW AND
RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW
STORMS/SMALL CLUSTERS WITH A RISK FOR SVR HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND. AN
ADDITIONAL ROUND OF STORMS MAY AFFECT MUCH THE SAME REGION
TNGT/EARLY SUN AS UPSTREAM VORT APPROACHES FROM NRN SONORA.

...CNTRL PLNS THIS AFN/EVE...
SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LATE DAY TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
STALLING FRONT OVER NW KS AND SRN NEB. BUT THE REGION LARGELY WILL
BE SUBJECT TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH THIS EVE. AND...WHILE LOW TO
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP FOR STORMS...MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED. SOME INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/STRENGTH MAY OCCUR
TNGT/EARLY SUN OVER PARTS OF NEB AS NOCTURNAL LLJ INCREASES AND AS W
TX UPR IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION. WHILE AN ISOLD INSTANCE OF
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR...ATTM IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT COVERAGE
JUSTIFIES INCLUSION OF 5% PROBABILITIES.

...ERN FL THIS AFTN...
ISOLD DIURNAL STORMS MAY FORM ALONG TRAILING WIND SHIFT LINE/COLD
FRONT CROSSING E CNTRL FL THIS AFTN BEFORE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE. GIVEN SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND/OR ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...A STORM OR TWO COULD GROW SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
TO POSE A BRIEF RISK FOR SVR HAIL OR WIND. THE OVERALL
THREAT...HOWEVER...APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF 5%
PROBABILITIES GIVEN WEAK LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE SUGGESTED BY AREA VWP
DATA.

..CORFIDI/BUNTING.. 04/19/2014





000
ACUS03 KWNS 191336
SWODY3
SPC AC 191335

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0835 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/NERN TX...

CORRECTED FOR PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

...TX...

SLOW-MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD TO NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 21/12Z.  SFC
FRONT WILL COINCIDE WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH EARLY BUT LAG ACROSS CNTRL
TX AS WEAKLY SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW DEEPENS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EVEN SO IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING AND A CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHIFT SHOULD ENCOURAGE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG SW-NE
ORIENTED BOUNDARY.  THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS NERN TX WHERE FAVORABLE UVV AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE WILL ENCOURAGE SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
MAY BE REDUCED ACROSS THIS REGION.

LATEST THINKING IS SCT CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
PERIOD ACROSS OK INTO THE RED RIVER REGION OF NRN TX.  EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD MAINTAIN WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS
REGION LIMITING MORE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF
OK.  STRONG HEATING WEST OF I-35 SHOULD RESULT IN DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER AND SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 9 C/KM.  WHILE
PRIMARY REGION OF ASCENT WILL SPREAD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION
EARLY...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z ALONG ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY.  MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...ON THE ORDER OF 30KT...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MULTI-CELL
UPDRAFTS...AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS.  PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH
SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION THAT SPREADS SEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

..DARROW.. 04/19/2014





000
ACUS03 KWNS 191336
SWODY3
SPC AC 191335

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0835 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/NERN TX...

CORRECTED FOR PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

...TX...

SLOW-MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD TO NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 21/12Z.  SFC
FRONT WILL COINCIDE WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH EARLY BUT LAG ACROSS CNTRL
TX AS WEAKLY SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW DEEPENS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EVEN SO IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING AND A CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHIFT SHOULD ENCOURAGE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG SW-NE
ORIENTED BOUNDARY.  THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS NERN TX WHERE FAVORABLE UVV AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE WILL ENCOURAGE SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
MAY BE REDUCED ACROSS THIS REGION.

LATEST THINKING IS SCT CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
PERIOD ACROSS OK INTO THE RED RIVER REGION OF NRN TX.  EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD MAINTAIN WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS
REGION LIMITING MORE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF
OK.  STRONG HEATING WEST OF I-35 SHOULD RESULT IN DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER AND SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 9 C/KM.  WHILE
PRIMARY REGION OF ASCENT WILL SPREAD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION
EARLY...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z ALONG ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY.  MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...ON THE ORDER OF 30KT...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MULTI-CELL
UPDRAFTS...AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS.  PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH
SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION THAT SPREADS SEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

..DARROW.. 04/19/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 191244
SWODY1
SPC AC 191242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

...FAR WEST TX/FAR SE NM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD
TODAY AS AN ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN MEXICO.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID-LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS FAR WEST TX AS A COUPLE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE NEWD
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWEST OF BIG BEND NP WITH SELY FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND FAR WEST TX. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL BECOME LIKELY IN THE DAVIS...GUADALUPE AND CHISOS
MTNS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERTS AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT FORT STOCKTON AND BIG BEND NP FOR 00Z/SUN
SHOW SBCAPE VALUES JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S F AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 50 TO 55 KT RANGE. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. STEEP
LAPSE RATES BELOW 850 MB SHOULD AID THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS BUT THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND ISOLATED. HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS ESPECIALLY WHERE
SFC TEMPS AND THE RESULTANT INSTABILITY MAX OUT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

...SRN AND ERN NEB/NRN KS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARK
REGION TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN ACROSS WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NEWD FROM THE LOW INTO SERN NEB. THIS SHOULD BE THE FAVORED CORRIDOR
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT HASTINGS NEB FOR EARLY THIS EVENING SHOW
SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -15C
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING
THE EVENING AS CELLS BECOME ELEVATED.

...SE GA AND NE FL...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN FL TODAY AS A SFC LOW
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FL. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER IN FAR NE FL AND SE GA. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPS AT
MID-LEVELS IN THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL WITH CELLS THAT INITIATE NEAR THE COAST WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE
EARLY TO MID EVENING ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT.

..BROYLES/ROGERS.. 04/19/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 191244
SWODY1
SPC AC 191242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHWEST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

...FAR WEST TX/FAR SE NM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD
TODAY AS AN ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO WRN MEXICO.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID-LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS FAR WEST TX AS A COUPLE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE NEWD
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWEST OF BIG BEND NP WITH SELY FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND FAR WEST TX. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL BECOME LIKELY IN THE DAVIS...GUADALUPE AND CHISOS
MTNS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERTS AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.

NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT FORT STOCKTON AND BIG BEND NP FOR 00Z/SUN
SHOW SBCAPE VALUES JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S F AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 50 TO 55 KT RANGE. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. STEEP
LAPSE RATES BELOW 850 MB SHOULD AID THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS BUT THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND ISOLATED. HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS ESPECIALLY WHERE
SFC TEMPS AND THE RESULTANT INSTABILITY MAX OUT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

...SRN AND ERN NEB/NRN KS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND OZARK
REGION TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN ACROSS WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NEWD FROM THE LOW INTO SERN NEB. THIS SHOULD BE THE FAVORED CORRIDOR
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE REGION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT HASTINGS NEB FOR EARLY THIS EVENING SHOW
SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -15C
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING
THE EVENING AS CELLS BECOME ELEVATED.

...SE GA AND NE FL...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN FL TODAY AS A SFC LOW
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FL. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER IN FAR NE FL AND SE GA. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPS AT
MID-LEVELS IN THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
HAIL WITH CELLS THAT INITIATE NEAR THE COAST WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE
EARLY TO MID EVENING ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT.

..BROYLES/ROGERS.. 04/19/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 190957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190956
FLZ000-191200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S FL.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 84...

VALID 190956Z - 191200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 84 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND OF STG AND POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS IS
MOVING EWD ACROSS S FL -- GENERALLY S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND OVER
RURAL/EVERGLADES AREAS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE SPORADIC SVR THREAT
AS IT CROSSES REMAINDER S FL THROUGH MIDMORNING.  MORE ISOLATED STG
CELLS WILL PROCEED EWD OVER ST LUCIE/INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES...PART OF
OTHERWISE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING SWWD BEHIND MAIN TSTM
CORRIDOR.

DISCUSSION...MAIN BAND OF TSTMS IS MOVING EWD 20-25 KT INTO WRN
FRINGES PALM BEACH/BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES AND WILL CROSS
METRO/I-95 CORRIDOR DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WHILE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MOVES/BUILDS NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS MIA/FLL METRO AREA.
OCNL BOW/LEWP FEATURES WITH ENHANCED OUTFLOW POOLS HAVE BEEN
DETECTED VIA MFL/88D AND MIA TDWR IN WESTERN CONVECTION...AND
ADDITIONAL DOWNDRAFT SURGES RELATED TO PRECIP LOADING MAY OCCUR THAT
ARE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.  BOOKEND MESOVORTICES -- OF
WHICH A FEW WEAK SPECIMENS ALREADY HAVE BEEN INDICATED FROM SRN LAKE
OKEECHOBEE SWWD -- AND LEADING-EDGE QLCS CIRCULATIONS ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE AND APPEAR TO CONSTITUTE BULK OF MRGL TORNADO THREAT FROM
HERE ON.

SFC DEW POINTS 70S F AND WEAK CINH SUPPORT ESSENTIALLY UNINHIBITED
PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.  AS SUCH...MORE DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF MAIN BAND.  40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
AND OBSERVED/LOCALIZED BACKING/CONVERGENCE OF FLOW ALONG IMMEDIATE E
COAST SUGGEST SUPERCELL THREAT IS NOT YET OVER.  SUPERCELLS
THEREFORE ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT APPEAR TO BE GETTING LESS LIKELY
WITH TIME PAST SUNRISE AS TWO FACTORS PLAY IN...
1. PREDOMINANCE OF MESSY/QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODES AND
2. FCST VEERING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW AND RESULTANT GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...TRENDS ALREADY SEEN IN INLAND SFC OBS
AND VWP AS MAIN SFC LOW CROSSES NRN FL.

..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...

LAT...LON   26218088 26998068 27868045 27218019 26808000 25648014
            25688019 25648026 25448030 25418026 25528018 25188031
            25118073 25118112 25278117 25338111 25408112 25588121
            26218088






000
ACUS11 KWNS 190957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190956
FLZ000-191200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S FL.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 84...

VALID 190956Z - 191200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 84 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND OF STG AND POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS IS
MOVING EWD ACROSS S FL -- GENERALLY S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND OVER
RURAL/EVERGLADES AREAS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE SPORADIC SVR THREAT
AS IT CROSSES REMAINDER S FL THROUGH MIDMORNING.  MORE ISOLATED STG
CELLS WILL PROCEED EWD OVER ST LUCIE/INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES...PART OF
OTHERWISE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING SWWD BEHIND MAIN TSTM
CORRIDOR.

DISCUSSION...MAIN BAND OF TSTMS IS MOVING EWD 20-25 KT INTO WRN
FRINGES PALM BEACH/BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES AND WILL CROSS
METRO/I-95 CORRIDOR DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WHILE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MOVES/BUILDS NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS MIA/FLL METRO AREA.
OCNL BOW/LEWP FEATURES WITH ENHANCED OUTFLOW POOLS HAVE BEEN
DETECTED VIA MFL/88D AND MIA TDWR IN WESTERN CONVECTION...AND
ADDITIONAL DOWNDRAFT SURGES RELATED TO PRECIP LOADING MAY OCCUR THAT
ARE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.  BOOKEND MESOVORTICES -- OF
WHICH A FEW WEAK SPECIMENS ALREADY HAVE BEEN INDICATED FROM SRN LAKE
OKEECHOBEE SWWD -- AND LEADING-EDGE QLCS CIRCULATIONS ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE AND APPEAR TO CONSTITUTE BULK OF MRGL TORNADO THREAT FROM
HERE ON.

SFC DEW POINTS 70S F AND WEAK CINH SUPPORT ESSENTIALLY UNINHIBITED
PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.  AS SUCH...MORE DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF MAIN BAND.  40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
AND OBSERVED/LOCALIZED BACKING/CONVERGENCE OF FLOW ALONG IMMEDIATE E
COAST SUGGEST SUPERCELL THREAT IS NOT YET OVER.  SUPERCELLS
THEREFORE ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT APPEAR TO BE GETTING LESS LIKELY
WITH TIME PAST SUNRISE AS TWO FACTORS PLAY IN...
1. PREDOMINANCE OF MESSY/QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODES AND
2. FCST VEERING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW AND RESULTANT GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...TRENDS ALREADY SEEN IN INLAND SFC OBS
AND VWP AS MAIN SFC LOW CROSSES NRN FL.

..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...

LAT...LON   26218088 26998068 27868045 27218019 26808000 25648014
            25688019 25648026 25448030 25418026 25528018 25188031
            25118073 25118112 25278117 25338111 25408112 25588121
            26218088





000
ACUS11 KWNS 190957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190956
FLZ000-191200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S FL.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 84...

VALID 190956Z - 191200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 84 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND OF STG AND POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS IS
MOVING EWD ACROSS S FL -- GENERALLY S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND OVER
RURAL/EVERGLADES AREAS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE SPORADIC SVR THREAT
AS IT CROSSES REMAINDER S FL THROUGH MIDMORNING.  MORE ISOLATED STG
CELLS WILL PROCEED EWD OVER ST LUCIE/INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES...PART OF
OTHERWISE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING SWWD BEHIND MAIN TSTM
CORRIDOR.

DISCUSSION...MAIN BAND OF TSTMS IS MOVING EWD 20-25 KT INTO WRN
FRINGES PALM BEACH/BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES AND WILL CROSS
METRO/I-95 CORRIDOR DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WHILE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MOVES/BUILDS NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS MIA/FLL METRO AREA.
OCNL BOW/LEWP FEATURES WITH ENHANCED OUTFLOW POOLS HAVE BEEN
DETECTED VIA MFL/88D AND MIA TDWR IN WESTERN CONVECTION...AND
ADDITIONAL DOWNDRAFT SURGES RELATED TO PRECIP LOADING MAY OCCUR THAT
ARE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.  BOOKEND MESOVORTICES -- OF
WHICH A FEW WEAK SPECIMENS ALREADY HAVE BEEN INDICATED FROM SRN LAKE
OKEECHOBEE SWWD -- AND LEADING-EDGE QLCS CIRCULATIONS ALSO ARE
POSSIBLE AND APPEAR TO CONSTITUTE BULK OF MRGL TORNADO THREAT FROM
HERE ON.

SFC DEW POINTS 70S F AND WEAK CINH SUPPORT ESSENTIALLY UNINHIBITED
PRECONVECTIVE MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.  AS SUCH...MORE DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF MAIN BAND.  40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
AND OBSERVED/LOCALIZED BACKING/CONVERGENCE OF FLOW ALONG IMMEDIATE E
COAST SUGGEST SUPERCELL THREAT IS NOT YET OVER.  SUPERCELLS
THEREFORE ARE STILL POSSIBLE...BUT APPEAR TO BE GETTING LESS LIKELY
WITH TIME PAST SUNRISE AS TWO FACTORS PLAY IN...
1. PREDOMINANCE OF MESSY/QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODES AND
2. FCST VEERING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW AND RESULTANT GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...TRENDS ALREADY SEEN IN INLAND SFC OBS
AND VWP AS MAIN SFC LOW CROSSES NRN FL.

..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...

LAT...LON   26218088 26998068 27868045 27218019 26808000 25648014
            25688019 25648026 25448030 25418026 25528018 25188031
            25118073 25118112 25278117 25338111 25408112 25588121
            26218088





000
ACUS03 KWNS 190700
SWODY3
SPC AC 190659

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/NERN TX...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

...TX...

SLOW-MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD TO NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 21/12Z.  SFC
FRONT WILL COINCIDE WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH EARLY BUT LAG ACROSS CNTRL
TX AS WEAKLY SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW DEEPENS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EVEN SO IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING AND A CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHIFT SHOULD ENCOURAGE AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG SW-NE
ORIENTED BOUNDARY.  THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS NERN TX WHERE FAVORABLE UVV AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE WILL ENCOURAGE SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS...HOWEVER INSTABILITY
MAY BE REDUCED ACROSS THIS REGION.

LATEST THINKING IS SCT CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
PERIOD ACROSS OK INTO THE RED RIVER REGION OF NRN TX.  EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD MAINTAIN WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS
REGION LIMITING MORE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION TO AREAS SOUTH OF
OK.  STRONG HEATING WEST OF I-35 SHOULD RESULT IN DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER AND SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 9 C/KM.  WHILE
PRIMARY REGION OF ASCENT WILL SPREAD INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION
EARLY...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z ALONG ADVANCING SFC BOUNDARY.  MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...ON THE ORDER OF 30KT...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MULTI-CELL
UPDRAFTS...AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS.  PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH
SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION THAT SPREADS SEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

..DARROW.. 04/19/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 190548
SWODY1
SPC AC 190546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG FLORIDA AND GEORGIA
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND
ADJACENT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  SOME OF THESE COULD APPROACH OR
BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE
PACIFIC WILL REMAIN SPLIT ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ONE ZONAL BRANCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES REMAINING A BIT STRONGER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED BUT WEAKER BRANCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF PROMINENT PERTURBATIONS WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...CONSIDERABLE DRYING IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GULF COAST REGION INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...WEAK TO
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY IN A NARROW PLUME ACROSS PARTS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM PERTURBATION...WHICH
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNER STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU TODAY AND TONIGHT.  SOME
MOISTENING ALSO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH...AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ONE IN A
SERIES OF VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES.

OTHERWISE...MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY LOW...WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR.

...SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...
MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT A BAND OF ENHANCED FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION...AND ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SPREADING OFF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS DURING THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  IN ITS
WAKE...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...ASSOCIATED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
DRYING...AND A VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT LIKELY WILL DIMINISH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...NORTH OF THE MIAMI AREA...BETWEEN PALM BEACH AND
MELBOURNE...MID-LEVEL COOLING AND ASCENT ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE UPPER LOW COULD CONTRIBUTE TO NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  INLAND ADVANCEMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE STILL APPEARS
UNLIKELY...THOUGH...AND STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED
TO AREAS EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

MEANWHILE...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE /WITH 500
MB TEMPS OF -16 TO -18C/...RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR A WEAK
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS.  SOME OF THIS COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED
SEVERE LIMITS AROUND JACKSONVILLE FL...NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND MOISTENING WILL ONLY
SUPPORT WEAK TO MODEST CAPE THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...VEERING WINDS
WITH HEIGHT BENEATH 30-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS.  THIS APPEARS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND A FOCUSED AREA OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY PROVIDE
THE SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  MID/UPPER FLOW MAY BE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF AT LEAST A SMALL STORM CLUSTER APPEARS
POSSIBLE.  AND A REMNANT 30 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET...COUPLED WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR A DOWNBURST OR TWO...AS WELL AS VIGOROUS
COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.  ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...BEFORE ACTIVITY
WEAKENS BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

..KERR/COHEN.. 04/19/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 190548
SWODY1
SPC AC 190546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED TORNADO PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG FLORIDA AND GEORGIA
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND
ADJACENT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  SOME OF THESE COULD APPROACH OR
BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE
PACIFIC WILL REMAIN SPLIT ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ONE ZONAL BRANCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES REMAINING A BIT STRONGER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED BUT WEAKER BRANCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF PROMINENT PERTURBATIONS WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...CONSIDERABLE DRYING IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GULF COAST REGION INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...WEAK TO
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY IN A NARROW PLUME ACROSS PARTS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM PERTURBATION...WHICH
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNER STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU TODAY AND TONIGHT.  SOME
MOISTENING ALSO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH...AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ONE IN A
SERIES OF VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES.

OTHERWISE...MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY LOW...WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR.

...SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...
MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT A BAND OF ENHANCED FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION...AND ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SPREADING OFF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS DURING THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  IN ITS
WAKE...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...ASSOCIATED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
DRYING...AND A VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT LIKELY WILL DIMINISH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...NORTH OF THE MIAMI AREA...BETWEEN PALM BEACH AND
MELBOURNE...MID-LEVEL COOLING AND ASCENT ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE UPPER LOW COULD CONTRIBUTE TO NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  INLAND ADVANCEMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE STILL APPEARS
UNLIKELY...THOUGH...AND STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED
TO AREAS EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

MEANWHILE...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE /WITH 500
MB TEMPS OF -16 TO -18C/...RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR A WEAK
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS.  SOME OF THIS COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED
SEVERE LIMITS AROUND JACKSONVILLE FL...NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND MOISTENING WILL ONLY
SUPPORT WEAK TO MODEST CAPE THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...VEERING WINDS
WITH HEIGHT BENEATH 30-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS.  THIS APPEARS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND A FOCUSED AREA OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY PROVIDE
THE SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  MID/UPPER FLOW MAY BE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF AT LEAST A SMALL STORM CLUSTER APPEARS
POSSIBLE.  AND A REMNANT 30 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET...COUPLED WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR A DOWNBURST OR TWO...AS WELL AS VIGOROUS
COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.  ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...BEFORE ACTIVITY
WEAKENS BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

..KERR/COHEN.. 04/19/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 190536
SWODY1
SPC AC 190534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG FLORIDA AND GEORGIA
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND
ADJACENT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  SOME OF THESE COULD APPROACH OR
BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE
PACIFIC WILL REMAIN SPLIT ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ONE ZONAL BRANCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES REMAINING A BIT STRONGER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED BUT WEAKER BRANCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF PROMINENT PERTURBATIONS WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...CONSIDERABLE DRYING IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GULF COAST REGION INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...WEAK TO
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY IN A NARROW PLUME ACROSS PARTS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM PERTURBATION...WHICH
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNER STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU TODAY AND TONIGHT.  SOME
MOISTENING ALSO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH...AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ONE IN A
SERIES OF VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES.

OTHERWISE...MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY LOW...WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR.

...SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...
MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT A BAND OF ENHANCED FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION...AND ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SPREADING OFF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS DURING THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  IN ITS
WAKE...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...ASSOCIATED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
DRYING...AND A VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT LIKELY WILL DIMINISH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...NORTH OF THE MIAMI AREA...BETWEEN PALM BEACH AND
MELBOURNE...MID-LEVEL COOLING AND ASCENT ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE UPPER LOW COULD CONTRIBUTE TO NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  INLAND ADVANCEMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE STILL APPEARS
UNLIKELY...THOUGH...AND STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED
TO AREAS EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

MEANWHILE...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE /WITH 500
MB TEMPS OF -16 TO -18C/...RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR A WEAK
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS.  SOME OF THIS COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED
SEVERE LIMITS AROUND JACKSONVILLE FL...NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND MOISTENING WILL ONLY
SUPPORT WEAK TO MODEST CAPE THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...VEERING WINDS
WITH HEIGHT BENEATH 30-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS.  THIS APPEARS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND A FOCUSED AREA OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY PROVIDE
THE SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  MID/UPPER FLOW MAY BE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF AT LEAST A SMALL STORM CLUSTER APPEARS
POSSIBLE.  AND A REMNANT 30 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET...COUPLED WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR A DOWNBURST OR TWO...AS WELL AS VIGOROUS
COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.  ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...BEFORE ACTIVITY
WEAKENS BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

..KERR/COHEN.. 04/19/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 190536
SWODY1
SPC AC 190534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG FLORIDA AND GEORGIA
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND
ADJACENT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  SOME OF THESE COULD APPROACH OR
BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE
PACIFIC WILL REMAIN SPLIT ACROSS THE U.S...WITH ONE ZONAL BRANCH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES REMAINING A BIT STRONGER AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED BUT WEAKER BRANCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF PROMINENT PERTURBATIONS WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH...CONSIDERABLE DRYING IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GULF COAST REGION INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...WEAK TO
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY IN A NARROW PLUME ACROSS PARTS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM PERTURBATION...WHICH
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNER STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU TODAY AND TONIGHT.  SOME
MOISTENING ALSO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LEE
SURFACE TROUGH...AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ONE IN A
SERIES OF VIGOROUS NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSES.

OTHERWISE...MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY LOW...WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR.

...SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...
MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT A BAND OF ENHANCED FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION...AND ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SPREADING OFF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS DURING THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME.  IN ITS
WAKE...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...ASSOCIATED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
DRYING...AND A VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT LIKELY WILL DIMINISH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...NORTH OF THE MIAMI AREA...BETWEEN PALM BEACH AND
MELBOURNE...MID-LEVEL COOLING AND ASCENT ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
THE UPPER LOW COULD CONTRIBUTE TO NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON.  INLAND ADVANCEMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE STILL APPEARS
UNLIKELY...THOUGH...AND STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED
TO AREAS EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

MEANWHILE...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE /WITH 500
MB TEMPS OF -16 TO -18C/...RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR A WEAK
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS.  SOME OF THIS COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED
SEVERE LIMITS AROUND JACKSONVILLE FL...NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND MOISTENING WILL ONLY
SUPPORT WEAK TO MODEST CAPE THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...VEERING WINDS
WITH HEIGHT BENEATH 30-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS.  THIS APPEARS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND A FOCUSED AREA OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY PROVIDE
THE SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  MID/UPPER FLOW MAY BE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT THE EVOLUTION OF AT LEAST A SMALL STORM CLUSTER APPEARS
POSSIBLE.  AND A REMNANT 30 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET...COUPLED WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR A DOWNBURST OR TWO...AS WELL AS VIGOROUS
COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.  ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...BEFORE ACTIVITY
WEAKENS BY MID TO LATE EVENING.

..KERR/COHEN.. 04/19/2014





000
ACUS11 KWNS 190447
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190446
FLZ000-190645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 190446Z - 190645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA INDICATE A STEADILY
STRENGTHENING CLUSTER OF TSTMS APPROXIMATELY 60NM WSW OF KEY WEST
WITH OTHER DEEPENING SHOWERS OBSERVED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
INITIAL STORMS. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING ALONG THE SRN
EXTENSION OF A 30-40 KT SLY LLJ COUPLED WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT
FALLS/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
CENTERED ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST APPEAR TO BE MECHANISMS
CONTRIBUTING TO THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AND LATEST
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS INCIPIENT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WHILE EXPANDING EWD/NEWD
THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE KEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FL
PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CURRENT VAD DATA FROM MELBOURNE SWD/SWWD THROUGH MIAMI AND KEY WEST
INDICATE A NOTABLE STRENGTHENING IN SLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RECENT LLJ DEVELOPMENT. MOREOVER...MIDLEVEL
FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED TO 45-50 KT WHICH IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL AND BOWING
STRUCTURES OVERNIGHT WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. A TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH A WEAK W-E-ORIENTED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS ROUGHLY JUST NORTH OF A FMY-PBI LINE WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY MAY REMAIN LOCALLY AUGMENTED.

..MEAD.. 04/19/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON   24538252 25398195 26328145 26798054 26788007 26207986
            25118038 24528117 24238210 24538252





000
ACUS11 KWNS 190447
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190446
FLZ000-190645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 190446Z - 190645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA INDICATE A STEADILY
STRENGTHENING CLUSTER OF TSTMS APPROXIMATELY 60NM WSW OF KEY WEST
WITH OTHER DEEPENING SHOWERS OBSERVED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
INITIAL STORMS. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING ALONG THE SRN
EXTENSION OF A 30-40 KT SLY LLJ COUPLED WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT
FALLS/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
CENTERED ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST APPEAR TO BE MECHANISMS
CONTRIBUTING TO THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AND LATEST
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS INCIPIENT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WHILE EXPANDING EWD/NEWD
THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE KEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FL
PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CURRENT VAD DATA FROM MELBOURNE SWD/SWWD THROUGH MIAMI AND KEY WEST
INDICATE A NOTABLE STRENGTHENING IN SLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RECENT LLJ DEVELOPMENT. MOREOVER...MIDLEVEL
FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED TO 45-50 KT WHICH IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL AND BOWING
STRUCTURES OVERNIGHT WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. A TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH A WEAK W-E-ORIENTED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS ROUGHLY JUST NORTH OF A FMY-PBI LINE WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY MAY REMAIN LOCALLY AUGMENTED.

..MEAD.. 04/19/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON   24538252 25398195 26328145 26798054 26788007 26207986
            25118038 24528117 24238210 24538252





000
ACUS11 KWNS 190447
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190446
FLZ000-190645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 190446Z - 190645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR DATA INDICATE A STEADILY
STRENGTHENING CLUSTER OF TSTMS APPROXIMATELY 60NM WSW OF KEY WEST
WITH OTHER DEEPENING SHOWERS OBSERVED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
INITIAL STORMS. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING ALONG THE SRN
EXTENSION OF A 30-40 KT SLY LLJ COUPLED WITH GRADUAL HEIGHT
FALLS/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
CENTERED ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST APPEAR TO BE MECHANISMS
CONTRIBUTING TO THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AND LATEST
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS INCIPIENT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WHILE EXPANDING EWD/NEWD
THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE KEYS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FL
PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CURRENT VAD DATA FROM MELBOURNE SWD/SWWD THROUGH MIAMI AND KEY WEST
INDICATE A NOTABLE STRENGTHENING IN SLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RECENT LLJ DEVELOPMENT. MOREOVER...MIDLEVEL
FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED TO 45-50 KT WHICH IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL AND BOWING
STRUCTURES OVERNIGHT WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. A TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
STORMS THAT CAN FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH A WEAK W-E-ORIENTED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS ROUGHLY JUST NORTH OF A FMY-PBI LINE WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY MAY REMAIN LOCALLY AUGMENTED.

..MEAD.. 04/19/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON   24538252 25398195 26328145 26798054 26788007 26207986
            25118038 24528117 24238210 24538252






000
ACUS02 KWNS 190446
SWODY2
SPC AC 190445

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS.  A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS.

...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT
INTO THE SRN ROCKIES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
LIKELY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TX BY 21/00Z.
STRONGEST BELT OF MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE OVER NRN MEXICO
WITH 30-40KT AT 500MB FORECAST TO EXTEND OVER WEST TX DRYLINE BY
PEAK HEATING.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE SFC-6KM
VALUES SHOULD EXCEED 40KT.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST 50S SFC DEW POINTS WILL
ADVANCE NWWD INTO CONVERGENT LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE SUCH THAT AMPLE
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
IN FACT...COOLING PROFILES ALOFT MAY ALLOW INHIBITION TO WEAKEN
ENOUGH FOR TSTM INITIATION FAIRLY EARLY...POSSIBLY BY 18Z.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING COULD RESULT IN SBCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
FORECAST SOUNDING AT MAF AT 21/00Z STRONGLY SUPPORTS SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT.  CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
SHOULD MOVE ESEWD THOUGH NEWD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS OK INTO KS.  TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS WILL DO SO WITHIN CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SHEAR AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5
PERCENT SEVERE PROBS DESPITE SCT COVERAGE EXPECTED.

LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS.  WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER WEST
TX LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE INADEQUATE TO SUPPORT MORE SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO THREAT.

..DARROW.. 04/19/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 190446
SWODY2
SPC AC 190445

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS.  A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS.

...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT
INTO THE SRN ROCKIES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
LIKELY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TX BY 21/00Z.
STRONGEST BELT OF MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE OVER NRN MEXICO
WITH 30-40KT AT 500MB FORECAST TO EXTEND OVER WEST TX DRYLINE BY
PEAK HEATING.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE SFC-6KM
VALUES SHOULD EXCEED 40KT.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST 50S SFC DEW POINTS WILL
ADVANCE NWWD INTO CONVERGENT LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE SUCH THAT AMPLE
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
IN FACT...COOLING PROFILES ALOFT MAY ALLOW INHIBITION TO WEAKEN
ENOUGH FOR TSTM INITIATION FAIRLY EARLY...POSSIBLY BY 18Z.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING COULD RESULT IN SBCAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
FORECAST SOUNDING AT MAF AT 21/00Z STRONGLY SUPPORTS SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT.  CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
SHOULD MOVE ESEWD THOUGH NEWD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS OK INTO KS.  TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS WILL DO SO WITHIN CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SHEAR AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5
PERCENT SEVERE PROBS DESPITE SCT COVERAGE EXPECTED.

LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS.  WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER WEST
TX LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE INADEQUATE TO SUPPORT MORE SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO THREAT.

..DARROW.. 04/19/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 190101
SWODY1
SPC AC 190100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SOME
HAIL...PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

...FLORIDA...
RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CONDITIONS EVIDENT IN
19/00Z RAOBS FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI HAVE INHIBITED DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT ACROSS MUCH OF THE KEYS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  HOWEVER... MODELS
INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE SURGE ACROSS THIS REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LIKELY INCREASING IN EXCESS OF
1.75 INCHES.  THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH AT LEAST
WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL COLD CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT.  SO...DESPITE THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS A MID/UPPER JET NOSES
TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT... STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR.

THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH AND HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS BAND OF
MOISTENING BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...MAINLY ALONG/AHEAD OF AN
INITIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF MELBOURNE THROUGH THE
FORT MYERS AREA.  THE EVOLUTION OF A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS APPEARS
POSSIBLE...PERHAPS WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AND
AHEAD OF THE LINE...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE MIAMI METRO AREA BY 09-12Z.


...NORTHERN PLAINS...
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE MAIN
BRANCH OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S...HAS CONTRIBUTED TO ONGOING SUSTAINED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NOW ADVANCING ACROSS AND EAST OF THE GLASGOW MT AREA. AS
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES INTO A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND MORE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT...TOWARD THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER...THE
RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS CONVECTION
WEAKENS DURING THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME.

ADDITIONAL WEAKER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITHIN A STRENGTHENING DOWNSTREAM LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

...SIERRA NEVADA AND MOUNTAINS OF SRN CA INTO ROCKIES...
AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEAR GENERALLY LARGELY
DIURNAL IN NATURE...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...BY AROUND 03-04Z.

..KERR.. 04/19/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 190101
SWODY1
SPC AC 190100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SOME
HAIL...PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

...FLORIDA...
RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CONDITIONS EVIDENT IN
19/00Z RAOBS FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI HAVE INHIBITED DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO THIS POINT ACROSS MUCH OF THE KEYS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  HOWEVER... MODELS
INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE SURGE ACROSS THIS REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LIKELY INCREASING IN EXCESS OF
1.75 INCHES.  THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH AT LEAST
WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL COLD CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT.  SO...DESPITE THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS A MID/UPPER JET NOSES
TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT... STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR.

THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH AND HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS BAND OF
MOISTENING BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...MAINLY ALONG/AHEAD OF AN
INITIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF MELBOURNE THROUGH THE
FORT MYERS AREA.  THE EVOLUTION OF A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS APPEARS
POSSIBLE...PERHAPS WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AND
AHEAD OF THE LINE...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE MIAMI METRO AREA BY 09-12Z.


...NORTHERN PLAINS...
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE MAIN
BRANCH OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S...HAS CONTRIBUTED TO ONGOING SUSTAINED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NOW ADVANCING ACROSS AND EAST OF THE GLASGOW MT AREA. AS
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES INTO A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND MORE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT...TOWARD THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER...THE
RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS CONVECTION
WEAKENS DURING THE 01-03Z TIME FRAME.

ADDITIONAL WEAKER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITHIN A STRENGTHENING DOWNSTREAM LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

...SIERRA NEVADA AND MOUNTAINS OF SRN CA INTO ROCKIES...
AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEAR GENERALLY LARGELY
DIURNAL IN NATURE...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...BY AROUND 03-04Z.

..KERR.. 04/19/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 182357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182357
MTZ000-190130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182357Z - 190130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ARCING N-S IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG/COMPACT
VORT MAX CROSSING MONTANA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING EWD WITHIN A ZONE OF STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. WITH
40-50 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY GGW/BLX VWP...CONVECTION WITH
ISOLATED-SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EWD ACROSS
ERN MT. AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY WITHIN AROUND 40-50 MILES DOWNSTREAM OF ITS ONGOING
POSITION. EVEN FARTHER E...PROGRESSIVELY LESS STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OWING TO EARLIER CLOUD-STUNTED SFC HEATING SHOULD DEPLETE SUCH
POTENTIAL.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 04/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   48180746 48610749 48700691 48290638 47590619 46550627
            45780688 45550751 45520840 45870832 46270753 46830709
            47240702 47810719 48180746






000
ACUS11 KWNS 182357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182357
MTZ000-190130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182357Z - 190130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ARCING N-S IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG/COMPACT
VORT MAX CROSSING MONTANA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING EWD WITHIN A ZONE OF STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. WITH
40-50 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY GGW/BLX VWP...CONVECTION WITH
ISOLATED-SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EWD ACROSS
ERN MT. AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY WITHIN AROUND 40-50 MILES DOWNSTREAM OF ITS ONGOING
POSITION. EVEN FARTHER E...PROGRESSIVELY LESS STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OWING TO EARLIER CLOUD-STUNTED SFC HEATING SHOULD DEPLETE SUCH
POTENTIAL.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 04/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   48180746 48610749 48700691 48290638 47590619 46550627
            45780688 45550751 45520840 45870832 46270753 46830709
            47240702 47810719 48180746





000
ACUS11 KWNS 182357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182357
MTZ000-190130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182357Z - 190130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS
EVENING. A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ARCING N-S IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG/COMPACT
VORT MAX CROSSING MONTANA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING EWD WITHIN A ZONE OF STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. WITH
40-50 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY GGW/BLX VWP...CONVECTION WITH
ISOLATED-SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EWD ACROSS
ERN MT. AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY WITHIN AROUND 40-50 MILES DOWNSTREAM OF ITS ONGOING
POSITION. EVEN FARTHER E...PROGRESSIVELY LESS STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OWING TO EARLIER CLOUD-STUNTED SFC HEATING SHOULD DEPLETE SUCH
POTENTIAL.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 04/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   48180746 48610749 48700691 48290638 47590619 46550627
            45780688 45550751 45520840 45870832 46270753 46830709
            47240702 47810719 48180746





000
ACUS11 KWNS 182312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182311
FLZ000-190115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0367
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182311Z - 190115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA MAY BECOME LOCALLY SEVERE BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A N/S-ORIENTED
CONFLUENCE AXIS ANALYZED OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING
BY 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS SAMPLED BY THE MLB VWP. THE DOWNSHEAR
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO STRONG SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY...PARTLY OWING TO LOWER 80S SFC TEMPERATURES AMIDST UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS COULD FURTHER
INTENSIFY AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST. MODERATE SHEAR CONTRIBUTED BY
THE ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME PERSISTENCE AND
ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
COULD EVOLVE AS THIS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS RELATIVELY BACKED SELY SFC
WINDS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DMGG
WINDS...SVR HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY LIES WELL IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT IMPLIED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE A DETERRENT TO GREATER SVR TSTM COVERAGE.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 04/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

LAT...LON   27078069 27648067 27728050 27588032 27228013 26558003
            26228022 26218064 26428081 27078069





000
ACUS11 KWNS 182312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182311
FLZ000-190115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0367
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182311Z - 190115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA MAY BECOME LOCALLY SEVERE BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A N/S-ORIENTED
CONFLUENCE AXIS ANALYZED OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING
BY 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS SAMPLED BY THE MLB VWP. THE DOWNSHEAR
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO STRONG SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY...PARTLY OWING TO LOWER 80S SFC TEMPERATURES AMIDST UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS COULD FURTHER
INTENSIFY AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST. MODERATE SHEAR CONTRIBUTED BY
THE ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME PERSISTENCE AND
ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
COULD EVOLVE AS THIS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS RELATIVELY BACKED SELY SFC
WINDS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DMGG
WINDS...SVR HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY LIES WELL IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT IMPLIED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE A DETERRENT TO GREATER SVR TSTM COVERAGE.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 04/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

LAT...LON   27078069 27648067 27728050 27588032 27228013 26558003
            26228022 26218064 26428081 27078069





000
ACUS11 KWNS 182312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182311
FLZ000-190115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0367
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182311Z - 190115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA MAY BECOME LOCALLY SEVERE BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A N/S-ORIENTED
CONFLUENCE AXIS ANALYZED OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING
BY 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS SAMPLED BY THE MLB VWP. THE DOWNSHEAR
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO STRONG SFC-BASED
BUOYANCY...PARTLY OWING TO LOWER 80S SFC TEMPERATURES AMIDST UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS COULD FURTHER
INTENSIFY AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST. MODERATE SHEAR CONTRIBUTED BY
THE ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME PERSISTENCE AND
ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES. MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
COULD EVOLVE AS THIS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS RELATIVELY BACKED SELY SFC
WINDS OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DMGG
WINDS...SVR HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY LIES WELL IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT IMPLIED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE A DETERRENT TO GREATER SVR TSTM COVERAGE.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 04/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

LAT...LON   27078069 27648067 27728050 27588032 27228013 26558003
            26228022 26218064 26428081 27078069






000
ACUS11 KWNS 182148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182148
FLZ000-GAZ000-182315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0366
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0448 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182148Z - 182315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS CONVECTION
SPREADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE
ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS ARCING NWWD OVER NORTH FLORIDA...AND
RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY IS EXHIBITING MORE OF A
SEMI-DISCRETE MODE NW OF A MORE CONTIGUOUS LINE REACHING DAYTONA
BEACH VICINITY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAVE TEMPERED DIURNAL BUOYANCY INCREASES. HOWEVER...A MOISTURE-RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S -- IS BOOSTING
LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY AMIDST STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- E.G. 0-1-KM BULK
SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KT PER JAX VWP DATA. AS SUCH...ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL
MESOVORTICES WITH A COUPLE INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR.
A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN PROXIMITY TO AN ENE/WSW-ORIENTED
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW-LEVEL SRH IS RELATIVELY ENHANCED.
HOWEVER...THE LIMITED SPATIOTEMPORAL WINDOW OF THE SVR POTENTIAL
PRECLUDES WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 04/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX...

LAT...LON   30108303 30388242 30818149 29968127 28938073 28408073
            28428118 29038148 29628185 29938234 29938275 30108303






000
ACUS11 KWNS 182148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182148
FLZ000-GAZ000-182315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0366
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0448 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182148Z - 182315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS CONVECTION
SPREADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE
ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS ARCING NWWD OVER NORTH FLORIDA...AND
RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY IS EXHIBITING MORE OF A
SEMI-DISCRETE MODE NW OF A MORE CONTIGUOUS LINE REACHING DAYTONA
BEACH VICINITY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAVE TEMPERED DIURNAL BUOYANCY INCREASES. HOWEVER...A MOISTURE-RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S -- IS BOOSTING
LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY AMIDST STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- E.G. 0-1-KM BULK
SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KT PER JAX VWP DATA. AS SUCH...ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL
MESOVORTICES WITH A COUPLE INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR.
A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN PROXIMITY TO AN ENE/WSW-ORIENTED
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW-LEVEL SRH IS RELATIVELY ENHANCED.
HOWEVER...THE LIMITED SPATIOTEMPORAL WINDOW OF THE SVR POTENTIAL
PRECLUDES WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 04/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX...

LAT...LON   30108303 30388242 30818149 29968127 28938073 28408073
            28428118 29038148 29628185 29938234 29938275 30108303





000
ACUS11 KWNS 182148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182148
FLZ000-GAZ000-182315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0366
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0448 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182148Z - 182315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS CONVECTION
SPREADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE
ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS ARCING NWWD OVER NORTH FLORIDA...AND
RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY IS EXHIBITING MORE OF A
SEMI-DISCRETE MODE NW OF A MORE CONTIGUOUS LINE REACHING DAYTONA
BEACH VICINITY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAVE TEMPERED DIURNAL BUOYANCY INCREASES. HOWEVER...A MOISTURE-RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S -- IS BOOSTING
LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY AMIDST STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- E.G. 0-1-KM BULK
SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KT PER JAX VWP DATA. AS SUCH...ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL
MESOVORTICES WITH A COUPLE INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR.
A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN PROXIMITY TO AN ENE/WSW-ORIENTED
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW-LEVEL SRH IS RELATIVELY ENHANCED.
HOWEVER...THE LIMITED SPATIOTEMPORAL WINDOW OF THE SVR POTENTIAL
PRECLUDES WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 04/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX...

LAT...LON   30108303 30388242 30818149 29968127 28938073 28408073
            28428118 29038148 29628185 29938234 29938275 30108303





000
ACUS01 KWNS 182000
SWODY1
SPC AC 181958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.  ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS.

...DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES ARE REQUIRED THIS FORECAST ASIDE FROM MINOR LINE
TWEAKS...AS PRIOR FORECAST REASONING REMAINS VALID.  A LINE OF
STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WRN FL PENINSULA WILL REMAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  LIMITED
THREAT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE SERN
U.S./CENTRAL AND ERN GULF.

..GOSS.. 04/18/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CONUS THROUGH SAT. ANY SVR WEATHER THREAT SHOULD OCCUR WITH LEAD
SRN STREAM TROUGH THAT ATTM IS OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST. THIS TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE E TO THE NERN GULF BY 12Z SAT...WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION
LIKELY AS JET STREAK NOW OVER LA CONTINUES E AND THEN SE INTO THE
BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE SYSTEM.

AT LWR LVLS...WEAK SFC WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF CST
TROUGH...NOW CENTERED S OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...SHOULD REDEVELOP
SLOWLY E ALONG ASSOCIATED WARM/STNRY FRONT INTO THE NERN GULF BY
EARLY TNGT. THIS LOW SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE FL
PENINSULA EARLY SAT AS TRAILING COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL SQLN MOVE
ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PARTS OF THE STATE. ANY SVR WEATHER THREAT THIS
PERIOD SHOULD BE CONFINED TO STORMS WITHIN THE SQLN...AND TO ANY
ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF IT LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT.

...FL PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
LIGHTNING AND...MORE RECENTLY...RADAR DATA SHOW LONG-LIVED
PRE-FRONTAL SQLN MOVING E ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AT ABOUT 30
KTS. THE SQLN SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA
LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT...WITH FORWARD-PROPAGATION CONTINUING TO BE
FOSTERED BY /1/ MOISTURE-RICH SSELY LOW-LVL FLOW AND /2/ STEADY EWD
PROGRESSION OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH.

THE SQLN LINE WILL REMAIN WELL E OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. BUT
SUFFICIENT /40 TO 50 KT/ WSWLY DEEP SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER FL
GIVEN CURRENT VWP DATA TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR SMALL BOWS/LEWPS WITH
DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. AND...WHILE SFC HEATING WILL BE
MODEST BY APRIL STANDARDS GIVEN ANTECEDENT CLOUDS...COMBINATION OF
EVEN MODEST LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG
SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND/OR ALONG DIFFUSE WARM FRONT MAY SUPPORT A
FEW DISCRETE CELLS THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT OVER N CNTRL AND E
CNTRL PARTS OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A PERSISTENT ELY
COMPONENT TO THE NEAR-SFC FLOW AS THE MAIN SFC LOW REMAINS OVER THE
NERN GULF...ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE A CONDITIONAL RISK
FOR A TORNADO...IN ADDITION TO SVR HAIL.

WHILE THE GREATEST RISK FOR SVR WEATHER SHOULD EXIST THIS AFTN
THROUGH EARLY TNGT OVER CNTRL AND NRN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA...A
MORE LIMITED SVR WEATHER RISK WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY SAT OVER THE
SERN PART OF THE STATE AS THE MAIN UPR TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION/COLD FRONT CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 182000
SWODY1
SPC AC 181958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
WIDESPREAD/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE CROSSING THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.  ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS.

...DISCUSSION...
FEW CHANGES ARE REQUIRED THIS FORECAST ASIDE FROM MINOR LINE
TWEAKS...AS PRIOR FORECAST REASONING REMAINS VALID.  A LINE OF
STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WRN FL PENINSULA WILL REMAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  LIMITED
THREAT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE SERN
U.S./CENTRAL AND ERN GULF.

..GOSS.. 04/18/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CONUS THROUGH SAT. ANY SVR WEATHER THREAT SHOULD OCCUR WITH LEAD
SRN STREAM TROUGH THAT ATTM IS OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST. THIS TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE E TO THE NERN GULF BY 12Z SAT...WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION
LIKELY AS JET STREAK NOW OVER LA CONTINUES E AND THEN SE INTO THE
BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE SYSTEM.

AT LWR LVLS...WEAK SFC WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF CST
TROUGH...NOW CENTERED S OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...SHOULD REDEVELOP
SLOWLY E ALONG ASSOCIATED WARM/STNRY FRONT INTO THE NERN GULF BY
EARLY TNGT. THIS LOW SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE FL
PENINSULA EARLY SAT AS TRAILING COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL SQLN MOVE
ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PARTS OF THE STATE. ANY SVR WEATHER THREAT THIS
PERIOD SHOULD BE CONFINED TO STORMS WITHIN THE SQLN...AND TO ANY
ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF IT LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT.

...FL PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
LIGHTNING AND...MORE RECENTLY...RADAR DATA SHOW LONG-LIVED
PRE-FRONTAL SQLN MOVING E ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AT ABOUT 30
KTS. THE SQLN SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA
LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT...WITH FORWARD-PROPAGATION CONTINUING TO BE
FOSTERED BY /1/ MOISTURE-RICH SSELY LOW-LVL FLOW AND /2/ STEADY EWD
PROGRESSION OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH.

THE SQLN LINE WILL REMAIN WELL E OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. BUT
SUFFICIENT /40 TO 50 KT/ WSWLY DEEP SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER FL
GIVEN CURRENT VWP DATA TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR SMALL BOWS/LEWPS WITH
DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. AND...WHILE SFC HEATING WILL BE
MODEST BY APRIL STANDARDS GIVEN ANTECEDENT CLOUDS...COMBINATION OF
EVEN MODEST LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG
SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND/OR ALONG DIFFUSE WARM FRONT MAY SUPPORT A
FEW DISCRETE CELLS THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT OVER N CNTRL AND E
CNTRL PARTS OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A PERSISTENT ELY
COMPONENT TO THE NEAR-SFC FLOW AS THE MAIN SFC LOW REMAINS OVER THE
NERN GULF...ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE A CONDITIONAL RISK
FOR A TORNADO...IN ADDITION TO SVR HAIL.

WHILE THE GREATEST RISK FOR SVR WEATHER SHOULD EXIST THIS AFTN
THROUGH EARLY TNGT OVER CNTRL AND NRN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA...A
MORE LIMITED SVR WEATHER RISK WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY SAT OVER THE
SERN PART OF THE STATE AS THE MAIN UPR TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION/COLD FRONT CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD.





000
ACUS11 KWNS 181958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181957
FLZ000-182130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0365
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NCNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83...

VALID 181957Z - 182130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z AS SQUALL LINE CONTINUES ACROSS CNTRL AND NCTNRL
FL. PORTIONS OF THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT WW 83 BY 21Z. WW CAN BE
LOCALLY EXTENDED IN AREA IF NECESSARY. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT DOES
NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST...AND ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
EXPECTED UNLESS TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST OTHERWISE.

DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE CONTINUES EWD THROUGH CNTRL FL AT AROUND 30
KT. A WELL DEFINED MCV WAS LOCATED ALONG THE NRN END OF THE LINE. SO
FAR ONLY SUB-SEVERE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL DESTABILIZATION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN TEMPERED BY THE CIRRUS CANOPY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ARE SUPPORTING UP TO 1000 J/KG
MLCAPE AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FORWARD PROPAGATING EWD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG TO AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAKER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WITH EWD
EXTENT ACROSS CNTRL FL AND THE MODEST THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE EAST OF CURRENT WW WILL PROBABLY
NOT BE NECESSARY.

..DIAL.. 04/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   28558213 29198249 29408195 28588143 27298127 26998176
            27828178 28558213






000
ACUS11 KWNS 181958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181957
FLZ000-182130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0365
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NCNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83...

VALID 181957Z - 182130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z AS SQUALL LINE CONTINUES ACROSS CNTRL AND NCTNRL
FL. PORTIONS OF THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT WW 83 BY 21Z. WW CAN BE
LOCALLY EXTENDED IN AREA IF NECESSARY. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT DOES
NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST...AND ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
EXPECTED UNLESS TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST OTHERWISE.

DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE CONTINUES EWD THROUGH CNTRL FL AT AROUND 30
KT. A WELL DEFINED MCV WAS LOCATED ALONG THE NRN END OF THE LINE. SO
FAR ONLY SUB-SEVERE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL DESTABILIZATION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN TEMPERED BY THE CIRRUS CANOPY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ARE SUPPORTING UP TO 1000 J/KG
MLCAPE AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FORWARD PROPAGATING EWD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG TO AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAKER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WITH EWD
EXTENT ACROSS CNTRL FL AND THE MODEST THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE EAST OF CURRENT WW WILL PROBABLY
NOT BE NECESSARY.

..DIAL.. 04/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   28558213 29198249 29408195 28588143 27298127 26998176
            27828178 28558213





000
ACUS11 KWNS 181958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181957
FLZ000-182130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0365
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NCNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83...

VALID 181957Z - 182130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z AS SQUALL LINE CONTINUES ACROSS CNTRL AND NCTNRL
FL. PORTIONS OF THE LINE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT WW 83 BY 21Z. WW CAN BE
LOCALLY EXTENDED IN AREA IF NECESSARY. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT DOES
NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST...AND ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
EXPECTED UNLESS TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST OTHERWISE.

DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE CONTINUES EWD THROUGH CNTRL FL AT AROUND 30
KT. A WELL DEFINED MCV WAS LOCATED ALONG THE NRN END OF THE LINE. SO
FAR ONLY SUB-SEVERE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL DESTABILIZATION OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN TEMPERED BY THE CIRRUS CANOPY.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ARE SUPPORTING UP TO 1000 J/KG
MLCAPE AND STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FORWARD PROPAGATING EWD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR. THE STRONGER
STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG TO AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN WEAKER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WITH EWD
EXTENT ACROSS CNTRL FL AND THE MODEST THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...ANOTHER WW ISSUANCE EAST OF CURRENT WW WILL PROBABLY
NOT BE NECESSARY.

..DIAL.. 04/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   28558213 29198249 29408195 28588143 27298127 26998176
            27828178 28558213





000
ACUS02 KWNS 181729
SWODY2
SPC AC 181728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.  OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A FAST/PROGRESSIVE BELT OF UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NRN U.S. AND SRN CANADA...A SLOWER FLOW STREAM OVER THE SRN 2/3 OF
THE U.S. IS PROGGED TO PERSIST DAY 2.  TWO TROUGHS WITHIN THIS SRN
STREAM FLOW FIELD -- ONE CROSSING THE SWRN U.S./INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
AND A SECOND TRAVERSING THE SERN STATES -- WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS FORECAST.

OVER THE WRN STATES...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
WITH A PRONOUNCED/TYPICAL DIURNAL PEAK...THOUGH SOME NOCTURNAL
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SLYS ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY SUPPORT AN EWD
CONTINUATION OF CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IN THE SOUTHEAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INVOF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE MOVING ACROSS FL EARLY...BUT MAY REDEVELOP
INVOF THE UPPER LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WITHIN A LARGER AREA
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY INVOF THE UPPER LOW.  WHILE A LIMITED THREAT FOR
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
DAY 2 PERIOD OVER FL...RISK DOES NOT APPEAR LARGE ENOUGH ATTM TO
INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..GOSS.. 04/18/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 181729
SWODY2
SPC AC 181728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.  OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A FAST/PROGRESSIVE BELT OF UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NRN U.S. AND SRN CANADA...A SLOWER FLOW STREAM OVER THE SRN 2/3 OF
THE U.S. IS PROGGED TO PERSIST DAY 2.  TWO TROUGHS WITHIN THIS SRN
STREAM FLOW FIELD -- ONE CROSSING THE SWRN U.S./INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
AND A SECOND TRAVERSING THE SERN STATES -- WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS FORECAST.

OVER THE WRN STATES...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
WITH A PRONOUNCED/TYPICAL DIURNAL PEAK...THOUGH SOME NOCTURNAL
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SLYS ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY SUPPORT AN EWD
CONTINUATION OF CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IN THE SOUTHEAST...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INVOF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE MOVING ACROSS FL EARLY...BUT MAY REDEVELOP
INVOF THE UPPER LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WITHIN A LARGER AREA
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY INVOF THE UPPER LOW.  WHILE A LIMITED THREAT FOR
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
DAY 2 PERIOD OVER FL...RISK DOES NOT APPEAR LARGE ENOUGH ATTM TO
INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..GOSS.. 04/18/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 181609
SWODY1
SPC AC 181608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE MAIN THREAT AREA WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO ONTO THE WEST COAST AND THEN INLAND...BUT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THAT ACTIVITY.  DAMAGING WIND IS THE
MAIN HAZARD...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL
MAY OCCUR.

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CONUS THROUGH SAT. ANY SVR WEATHER THREAT SHOULD OCCUR WITH LEAD
SRN STREAM TROUGH THAT ATTM IS OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST. THIS TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE E TO THE NERN GULF BY 12Z SAT...WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION
LIKELY AS JET STREAK NOW OVER LA CONTINUES E AND THEN SE INTO THE
BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE SYSTEM.

AT LWR LVLS...WEAK SFC WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF CST
TROUGH...NOW CENTERED S OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...SHOULD REDEVELOP
SLOWLY E ALONG ASSOCIATED WARM/STNRY FRONT INTO THE NERN GULF BY
EARLY TNGT. THIS LOW SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE FL
PENINSULA EARLY SAT AS TRAILING COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL SQLN MOVE
ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PARTS OF THE STATE. ANY SVR WEATHER THREAT THIS
PERIOD SHOULD BE CONFINED TO STORMS WITHIN THE SQLN...AND TO ANY
ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT FORM AHEAD OF IT LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT.

...FL PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
LIGHTNING AND...MORE RECENTLY...RADAR DATA SHOW LONG-LIVED
PRE-FRONTAL SQLN MOVING E ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AT ABOUT 30
KTS. THE SQLN SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA
LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT...WITH FORWARD-PROPAGATION CONTINUING TO BE
FOSTERED BY /1/ MOISTURE-RICH SSELY LOW-LVL FLOW AND /2/ STEADY EWD
PROGRESSION OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH.

THE SQLN LINE WILL REMAIN WELL E OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. BUT
SUFFICIENT /40 TO 50 KT/ WSWLY DEEP SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT OVER FL
GIVEN CURRENT VWP DATA TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUSTAINED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR SMALL BOWS/LEWPS WITH
DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. AND...WHILE SFC HEATING WILL BE
MODEST BY APRIL STANDARDS GIVEN ANTECEDENT CLOUDS...COMBINATION OF
EVEN MODEST LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG
SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND/OR ALONG DIFFUSE WARM FRONT MAY SUPPORT A
FEW DISCRETE CELLS THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT OVER N CNTRL AND E
CNTRL PARTS OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A PERSISTENT ELY
COMPONENT TO THE NEAR-SFC FLOW AS THE MAIN SFC LOW REMAINS OVER THE
NERN GULF...ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE A CONDITIONAL RISK
FOR A TORNADO...IN ADDITION TO SVR HAIL.

WHILE THE GREATEST RISK FOR SVR WEATHER SHOULD EXIST THIS AFTN
THROUGH EARLY TNGT OVER CNTRL AND NRN PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA...A
MORE LIMITED SVR WEATHER RISK WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY SAT OVER THE
SERN PART OF THE STATE AS THE MAIN UPR TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION/COLD FRONT CONTINUE SLOWLY EWD.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 04/18/2014






000
ACUS11 KWNS 181548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181548
FLZ000-181745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0364
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NCNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181548Z - 181745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER CNTRL AND
NCNTRL FL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NCNTRL
FL...NORTH OF THE TAMPA AND MELBOURNE AREAS. A MOIST WARM SECTOR
RESIDES SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F. A
PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF STORMS PERSISTS ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVER
THE ERN GULF NWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. OTHER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NRN FL WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
NORTH OF THE FRONT. STORMS OVER THE ERN GULF AND WEST OF TAMPA HAVE
SHOWN EVIDENCE OF SOME ORGANIZATION INCLUDING ROTATING COMMA HEADS
AND BOWING STRUCTURES AT TIMES. ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 30
KT. WIDESPREAD CIRRUS FROM ANVIL DEBRIS HAS OVERSPREAD A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF WARM SECTOR...BUT FILTERED SUN SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S IN CNTRL FL...SUPPORTING UP TO
1500 J/KG MLCAPE.

A 40 KT SLY LLJ AND DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR SHOULD PROMOTE
CONTINUED EWD DEVELOPMENT OF THE OFFSHORE SQUALL LINE INTO THE FL
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. TREND HAS BEEN FOR NEAR SFC WINDS TO VEER
OVER CNTRL FL...AND THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN SIZE OF 0-1 KM
HODOGRAPHS. THEREFORE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE SQUALL LINE WEST OF
TAMPA SHOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES...ESPECIALLY WITH
STORMS ON NRN END OF LINE THAT MAY INTERACT WITH WARM FRONT. OTHER
MORE DISCRETE STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. THESE
STORMS COULD POSE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AS THEY
LIFT NEWD AND INTERACT WITH WARM FRONT.

..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 04/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   29368295 29838219 29618123 28518077 27638088 26908126
            26758219 27498261 28778271 29368295






000
ACUS11 KWNS 181548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181548
FLZ000-181745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0364
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NCNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181548Z - 181745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER CNTRL AND
NCNTRL FL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NCNTRL
FL...NORTH OF THE TAMPA AND MELBOURNE AREAS. A MOIST WARM SECTOR
RESIDES SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F. A
PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF STORMS PERSISTS ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVER
THE ERN GULF NWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. OTHER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NRN FL WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
NORTH OF THE FRONT. STORMS OVER THE ERN GULF AND WEST OF TAMPA HAVE
SHOWN EVIDENCE OF SOME ORGANIZATION INCLUDING ROTATING COMMA HEADS
AND BOWING STRUCTURES AT TIMES. ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 30
KT. WIDESPREAD CIRRUS FROM ANVIL DEBRIS HAS OVERSPREAD A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF WARM SECTOR...BUT FILTERED SUN SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S IN CNTRL FL...SUPPORTING UP TO
1500 J/KG MLCAPE.

A 40 KT SLY LLJ AND DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR SHOULD PROMOTE
CONTINUED EWD DEVELOPMENT OF THE OFFSHORE SQUALL LINE INTO THE FL
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. TREND HAS BEEN FOR NEAR SFC WINDS TO VEER
OVER CNTRL FL...AND THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN SIZE OF 0-1 KM
HODOGRAPHS. THEREFORE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE SQUALL LINE WEST OF
TAMPA SHOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES...ESPECIALLY WITH
STORMS ON NRN END OF LINE THAT MAY INTERACT WITH WARM FRONT. OTHER
MORE DISCRETE STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. THESE
STORMS COULD POSE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AS THEY
LIFT NEWD AND INTERACT WITH WARM FRONT.

..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 04/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   29368295 29838219 29618123 28518077 27638088 26908126
            26758219 27498261 28778271 29368295





000
ACUS11 KWNS 181548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181548
FLZ000-181745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0364
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NCNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181548Z - 181745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER CNTRL AND
NCNTRL FL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NCNTRL
FL...NORTH OF THE TAMPA AND MELBOURNE AREAS. A MOIST WARM SECTOR
RESIDES SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F. A
PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF STORMS PERSISTS ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVER
THE ERN GULF NWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. OTHER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NRN FL WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
NORTH OF THE FRONT. STORMS OVER THE ERN GULF AND WEST OF TAMPA HAVE
SHOWN EVIDENCE OF SOME ORGANIZATION INCLUDING ROTATING COMMA HEADS
AND BOWING STRUCTURES AT TIMES. ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 30
KT. WIDESPREAD CIRRUS FROM ANVIL DEBRIS HAS OVERSPREAD A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF WARM SECTOR...BUT FILTERED SUN SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S IN CNTRL FL...SUPPORTING UP TO
1500 J/KG MLCAPE.

A 40 KT SLY LLJ AND DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR SHOULD PROMOTE
CONTINUED EWD DEVELOPMENT OF THE OFFSHORE SQUALL LINE INTO THE FL
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. TREND HAS BEEN FOR NEAR SFC WINDS TO VEER
OVER CNTRL FL...AND THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN SIZE OF 0-1 KM
HODOGRAPHS. THEREFORE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE SQUALL LINE WEST OF
TAMPA SHOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES...ESPECIALLY WITH
STORMS ON NRN END OF LINE THAT MAY INTERACT WITH WARM FRONT. OTHER
MORE DISCRETE STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. THESE
STORMS COULD POSE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AS THEY
LIFT NEWD AND INTERACT WITH WARM FRONT.

..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 04/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   29368295 29838219 29618123 28518077 27638088 26908126
            26758219 27498261 28778271 29368295





000
ACUS01 KWNS 181240
SWODY1
SPC AC 181239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE MAIN ACTION AREA WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO ONTO THE WEST COAST THEN INLAND...BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THAT.  DAMAGING WIND IS THE MAIN
HAZARD.  THESE STORMS ALSO MAY OFFER LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR
TWO.

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER INLAND PAC
NW...RIDGING OVER ROCKIES...AND BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN AR AND EXTREME E TX -- IS FCST TO
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ESEWD INTO PRE-EXISTING CYCLONIC REGIME.  THIS
PROCESS SHOULD YIELD CLOSED 500-MB LOW OVER FL PANHANDLE BY
06Z..MOVING EWD ROUGHLY ALONG I-10 TO FL COASTAL BEND/SWRN GA AREA
NEAR END OF PERIOD.  THIS WILL SPREAD STRONGLY DIFLUENT BUT ALSO
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT OVER OUTLOOK AREA.  MEANWHILE...BROAD/WEAK
SRN-STREAM CYCLONE NOW OFFSHORE SRN CA WILL MOVE EWD TO AREAS NEAR
OR S OF LAS...WITH TROUGH SWD ACROSS LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND
NRN/CENTRAL BAJA BY 12Z.

AT SFC...CYCLONE NOW SE OF MS RIVER MOUTH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OR
RE-DEVELOP THROUGH NRN PART OF ONGOING TSTM COMPLEX OVER NERN
GULF...THEN MOVE NEWD ACROSS NWRN FL LATE AFTN INTO EVENING.
DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WAS ANALYZED AT 11Z FROM THAT LOW ESEWD
THROUGH ERN-GULF PRECIP AREA AND CENTRAL FL PENINSULA.  ACCOMPANYING
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHIFT NWD SLOWLY TODAY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS TO
ITS S MAINLY UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F.

...FL PENINSULA...
MAIN SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD OVER FL WITH TSTM COMPLEX
NOW OVER ERN GULF...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH
MORNING INTO AFTN BEFORE ACCELERATING.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE TO ITS E AND SE TODAY OVER PENINSULA...AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS STRAITS/KEYS AND EXTREME ERN GULF...MOVING EWD TO NEWD ACROSS
S FL.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAKER WITH SWD DISTANCE AWAY FROM
FRONTAL ZONE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S FL...AND THIS FACTOR RENDERS
UNCONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES MORE MRGL WITH SWD EXTENT.

LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION NEAR WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH MUTED SFC
HEATING...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ANTECEDENT DESTABILIZATION AND
500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE.  DEEP SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY
THIS AFTN AHEAD OF MAIN MCS AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS/APCHS...DESPITE VEERING OF SFC WINDS TO SLY BEHIND WARM
FROPA.  HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF MORE ROBUST
NEAR-SFC WINDS...EVEN ALONG AND JUST N OF WARM FRONT WHERE FLOW IS
MORE BACKED.  STILL...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/BOWS/LEWPS.

MOST MODELS...INCLUDING SREF MEMBERS...APPEAR TOO SLOW ALREADY WITH
EWD PROGRESS OF GULF TSTMS AND LIKELY TOO LATE WITH ITS PASSAGE
ACROSS FL THIS AFTN INTO EVENING.  SOME PRECURSORY/ANTECEDENT
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BEFORE MAIN MCS ARRIVES -- ESPECIALLY ALONG SEA
BREEZES IN SRN PENINSULA WHERE STRONGEST DIABATIC HEATING IS
EXPECTED AND THEREFORE MOST VIGOROUS SOLENOIDAL LIFT IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS MORE AND MORE CONDITIONAL/LIMITED
WITH NWD AND WWD EXTENT AS THICK ANVIL MATERIAL SPREADS EWD OVER
MOST OF FL.

..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 04/18/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 181240
SWODY1
SPC AC 181239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE MAIN ACTION AREA WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO ONTO THE WEST COAST THEN INLAND...BUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THAT.  DAMAGING WIND IS THE MAIN
HAZARD.  THESE STORMS ALSO MAY OFFER LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR
TWO.

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER INLAND PAC
NW...RIDGING OVER ROCKIES...AND BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SERN CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN AR AND EXTREME E TX -- IS FCST TO
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ESEWD INTO PRE-EXISTING CYCLONIC REGIME.  THIS
PROCESS SHOULD YIELD CLOSED 500-MB LOW OVER FL PANHANDLE BY
06Z..MOVING EWD ROUGHLY ALONG I-10 TO FL COASTAL BEND/SWRN GA AREA
NEAR END OF PERIOD.  THIS WILL SPREAD STRONGLY DIFLUENT BUT ALSO
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT OVER OUTLOOK AREA.  MEANWHILE...BROAD/WEAK
SRN-STREAM CYCLONE NOW OFFSHORE SRN CA WILL MOVE EWD TO AREAS NEAR
OR S OF LAS...WITH TROUGH SWD ACROSS LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND
NRN/CENTRAL BAJA BY 12Z.

AT SFC...CYCLONE NOW SE OF MS RIVER MOUTH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OR
RE-DEVELOP THROUGH NRN PART OF ONGOING TSTM COMPLEX OVER NERN
GULF...THEN MOVE NEWD ACROSS NWRN FL LATE AFTN INTO EVENING.
DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WAS ANALYZED AT 11Z FROM THAT LOW ESEWD
THROUGH ERN-GULF PRECIP AREA AND CENTRAL FL PENINSULA.  ACCOMPANYING
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SHIFT NWD SLOWLY TODAY...WITH SFC DEW POINTS TO
ITS S MAINLY UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F.

...FL PENINSULA...
MAIN SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD OVER FL WITH TSTM COMPLEX
NOW OVER ERN GULF...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD THROUGH
MORNING INTO AFTN BEFORE ACCELERATING.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE TO ITS E AND SE TODAY OVER PENINSULA...AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS STRAITS/KEYS AND EXTREME ERN GULF...MOVING EWD TO NEWD ACROSS
S FL.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE WEAKER WITH SWD DISTANCE AWAY FROM
FRONTAL ZONE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S FL...AND THIS FACTOR RENDERS
UNCONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES MORE MRGL WITH SWD EXTENT.

LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION NEAR WARM FRONT...ALONG WITH MUTED SFC
HEATING...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ANTECEDENT DESTABILIZATION AND
500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE.  DEEP SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE GRADUALLY
THIS AFTN AHEAD OF MAIN MCS AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS/APCHS...DESPITE VEERING OF SFC WINDS TO SLY BEHIND WARM
FROPA.  HODOGRAPH SIZE WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF MORE ROBUST
NEAR-SFC WINDS...EVEN ALONG AND JUST N OF WARM FRONT WHERE FLOW IS
MORE BACKED.  STILL...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/BOWS/LEWPS.

MOST MODELS...INCLUDING SREF MEMBERS...APPEAR TOO SLOW ALREADY WITH
EWD PROGRESS OF GULF TSTMS AND LIKELY TOO LATE WITH ITS PASSAGE
ACROSS FL THIS AFTN INTO EVENING.  SOME PRECURSORY/ANTECEDENT
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BEFORE MAIN MCS ARRIVES -- ESPECIALLY ALONG SEA
BREEZES IN SRN PENINSULA WHERE STRONGEST DIABATIC HEATING IS
EXPECTED AND THEREFORE MOST VIGOROUS SOLENOIDAL LIFT IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS MORE AND MORE CONDITIONAL/LIMITED
WITH NWD AND WWD EXTENT AS THICK ANVIL MATERIAL SPREADS EWD OVER
MOST OF FL.

..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 04/18/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 180705
SWODY3
SPC AC 180704

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG...OR POSSIBLY SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

LOW-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
SRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS SEASONALLY WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE AS 500 MB
GRADIENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY TIGHT.  AS A RESULT...FLOW WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH...EXTENDING INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 30KT.  EVEN SO...SHORT WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO INDUCE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALONG CONVERGENT DRYLINE BY
AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD FOCUS DEEP CONVECTION.

LATEST THINKING IS MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY
ADVANCE NWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE SFC
DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE 50S.  AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS SHOULD FREELY CONVECT
ALONG DRY LINE...MOST LIKELY BY 22Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
HIGH-BASED TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE WHERE SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR COULD
APPROACH 35KT NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...DROPPING TO NEAR 20KT
ACROSS NWRN OK.  WILL INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT
FOR A FEW SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ACROSS KS IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF SFC LOW...STRETCHING NEWD ALONG WARM FRONT INTO IA.
FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN LESS THAN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS.
IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN RETURN TO THIS REGION THEN
LOW SEVERE PROBS MAY BE ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL
WITH SLOW-MOVING TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS.

..DARROW.. 04/18/2014





000
ACUS03 KWNS 180705
SWODY3
SPC AC 180704

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG...OR POSSIBLY SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

LOW-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
SRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS SEASONALLY WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE AS 500 MB
GRADIENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY TIGHT.  AS A RESULT...FLOW WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH...EXTENDING INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 30KT.  EVEN SO...SHORT WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO INDUCE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALONG CONVERGENT DRYLINE BY
AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD FOCUS DEEP CONVECTION.

LATEST THINKING IS MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY
ADVANCE NWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE SFC
DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE 50S.  AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS SHOULD FREELY CONVECT
ALONG DRY LINE...MOST LIKELY BY 22Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
HIGH-BASED TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE WHERE SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR COULD
APPROACH 35KT NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...DROPPING TO NEAR 20KT
ACROSS NWRN OK.  WILL INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT
FOR A FEW SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ACROSS KS IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF SFC LOW...STRETCHING NEWD ALONG WARM FRONT INTO IA.
FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN LESS THAN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS.
IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN RETURN TO THIS REGION THEN
LOW SEVERE PROBS MAY BE ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL
WITH SLOW-MOVING TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS.

..DARROW.. 04/18/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 180553
SWODY1
SPC AC 180551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA....

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...AND SOME HAIL.

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORT WAVES WITHIN A COUPLE OF BELTS OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
TRAVERSING THE U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD APPEAR LIKELY TO
REMAIN GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE.  THIS INCLUDES A PAIR OF LARGER SCALE
TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKER BUT MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN
STREAM...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...WHICH IS INTERACTING WITH
ANOTHER BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC.

WHILE ONE TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SIERRA
NEVADA/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES...THE OTHER IS FORECAST TO DIG
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.  WITH MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIVE MOISTURE
AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO THE LEAD IMPULSE...HIGHEST
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT APPEAR TO EXIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC.

OTHER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS IS WHERE MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE SEASONABLY WEAK TO MODEST...BUT LAPSE RATES RATHER
STEEP...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-STREAM
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA.

...FLORIDA...
VARIABILITY DOES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE SMALLER SCALE
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE EVOLVING APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL-WAVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.  THIS COULD HAVE A SUBSTANTIVE IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR A GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN INLAND-ADVANCING SEA BREEZE ACROSS INTERIOR
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
THEN GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE WHILE PROGRESSING INLAND OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK...LIMITING THE MAGNITUDE OF
DESTABILIZATION...SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS AT LEAST
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED- LAYER CAPE
AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  COUPLED WITH MODEST
LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...VEERING WITH HEIGHT...BENEATH 30-40+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION MAY INCLUDE A FEW
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL...LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND THE RISK FOR AT LEAST SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES.

OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WITH THE SUBSEQUENT SQUALL LINE...MOSTLY AIDED BY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION LOADING.

..KERR/MOSIER.. 04/18/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 180553
SWODY1
SPC AC 180551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA....

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...AND SOME HAIL.

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORT WAVES WITHIN A COUPLE OF BELTS OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
TRAVERSING THE U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD APPEAR LIKELY TO
REMAIN GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE.  THIS INCLUDES A PAIR OF LARGER SCALE
TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKER BUT MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN
STREAM...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...WHICH IS INTERACTING WITH
ANOTHER BELT OF WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC.

WHILE ONE TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...CONTRIBUTING TO AREAS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SIERRA
NEVADA/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES...THE OTHER IS FORECAST TO DIG
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.  WITH MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIVE MOISTURE
AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO THE LEAD IMPULSE...HIGHEST
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT APPEAR TO EXIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC.

OTHER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THIS IS WHERE MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE SEASONABLY WEAK TO MODEST...BUT LAPSE RATES RATHER
STEEP...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN-STREAM
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA.

...FLORIDA...
VARIABILITY DOES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE SMALLER SCALE
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE EVOLVING APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL-WAVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.  THIS COULD HAVE A SUBSTANTIVE IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR A GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN INLAND-ADVANCING SEA BREEZE ACROSS INTERIOR
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA FROM LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
THEN GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THAT A PRE-FRONTAL MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE WHILE PROGRESSING INLAND OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK...LIMITING THE MAGNITUDE OF
DESTABILIZATION...SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS AT LEAST
THE CENTRAL PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED- LAYER CAPE
AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  COUPLED WITH MODEST
LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...VEERING WITH HEIGHT...BENEATH 30-40+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION MAY INCLUDE A FEW
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL...LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND THE RISK FOR AT LEAST SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES.

OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PROBABLY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WITH THE SUBSEQUENT SQUALL LINE...MOSTLY AIDED BY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION LOADING.

..KERR/MOSIER.. 04/18/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 180447
SWODY2
SPC AC 180446

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NOTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND PARTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...SERN U.S...

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT OFF
THE SERN COAST BY 20/00Z.  DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IT APPEARS
SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL SURGE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THE PRIMARY ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE TO NEAR THE EAST COAST BY DAY BREAK SUNDAY.  RESULTANT DEEP
CONVECTION SHOULD BE PRIMARILY OFFSHORE BY 19/12Z.  FOR THIS REASON
HAVE LOWERED SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...POCKET
OF COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT ACROSS GA/SC DURING THE
DAY IF THE MORE NLY GFS IS ACCURATE.  STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WITH
500MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF -16C SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BENEATH THE UPPER LOW.

...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES INTO THE MID MO VALLEY...

VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
FROM FAR WEST TX INTO NEB DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AHEAD OF LOW
LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SWRN U.S.  COOL MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SWRN U.S. INTO THE
SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES SUCH THAT LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AIDED IN LARGE PART BY BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.
TOTAL MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE SPARSE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LIKELY REMAINING ACROSS
NERN MEXICO/LOWER RIO GRAND RIVER VALLEY.  WHILE A FEW ROBUST STORMS
MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ACROSS FAR WEST TX WHERE FAVORABLE VEERING
WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT COULD ENHANCE LONGEVITY OF UPDRAFTS...THE
PROSPECT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE IS FAIRLY LOW GIVEN PW VALUES AOB 0.75
INCHES.

FARTHER NORTH...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ENHANCE UVV ALONG
SW-NE BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NWRN KS ACROSS SRN NEB INTO SERN MN.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TOWARD CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY AFTER DARK.  MARGINAL
MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT ALONG THIS CORRIDOR.

..DARROW.. 04/18/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 180447
SWODY2
SPC AC 180446

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NOTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND PARTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...SERN U.S...

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT OFF
THE SERN COAST BY 20/00Z.  DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IT APPEARS
SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL SURGE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AND THE PRIMARY ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE TO NEAR THE EAST COAST BY DAY BREAK SUNDAY.  RESULTANT DEEP
CONVECTION SHOULD BE PRIMARILY OFFSHORE BY 19/12Z.  FOR THIS REASON
HAVE LOWERED SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...POCKET
OF COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT ACROSS GA/SC DURING THE
DAY IF THE MORE NLY GFS IS ACCURATE.  STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WITH
500MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF -16C SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BENEATH THE UPPER LOW.

...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES INTO THE MID MO VALLEY...

VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
FROM FAR WEST TX INTO NEB DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AHEAD OF LOW
LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SWRN U.S.  COOL MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SWRN U.S. INTO THE
SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES SUCH THAT LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AIDED IN LARGE PART BY BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.
TOTAL MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE SPARSE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LIKELY REMAINING ACROSS
NERN MEXICO/LOWER RIO GRAND RIVER VALLEY.  WHILE A FEW ROBUST STORMS
MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ACROSS FAR WEST TX WHERE FAVORABLE VEERING
WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT COULD ENHANCE LONGEVITY OF UPDRAFTS...THE
PROSPECT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE IS FAIRLY LOW GIVEN PW VALUES AOB 0.75
INCHES.

FARTHER NORTH...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ENHANCE UVV ALONG
SW-NE BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NWRN KS ACROSS SRN NEB INTO SERN MN.
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TOWARD CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY AFTER DARK.  MARGINAL
MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT ALONG THIS CORRIDOR.

..DARROW.. 04/18/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 180101
SWODY1
SPC AC 180059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE
EVENING...WHILE REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST.  CONSIDERABLY STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

...SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A CONSOLIDATION OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE MID
LATITUDE PACIFIC...AND ANOTHER BELT EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL LEAD TO THE CONTINUING EVOLUTION OF A PAIR OF
LARGER SCALE SHORT TROUGHS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.
TONIGHT.  THE LEAD WAVE IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION
AND GULF OF MEXICO...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION...SUPPORTED BY AN INFLOW OF MODERATE TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED AIR...LIKELY WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED NEAR A REMNANT SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO.  IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...ACTIVITY COULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AND STRONG TO
SEVERE...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH FLORIDA GULF COASTAL AREAS
OR WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY.  RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THIS COMPLEX MAY...HOWEVER...IMPACT
COASTAL AREAS FROM LOUISIANA EASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...REMNANT DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE TAMPA AREA BY 01-02Z...BEFORE CONTINUING TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH/DISSIPATE.

...PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
SPLIT WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC...APPEARS TO
BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST WHILE SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY 03-04Z.

..KERR.. 04/18/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 180101
SWODY1
SPC AC 180059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE
EVENING...WHILE REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST.  CONSIDERABLY STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

...SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A CONSOLIDATION OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE MID
LATITUDE PACIFIC...AND ANOTHER BELT EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL LEAD TO THE CONTINUING EVOLUTION OF A PAIR OF
LARGER SCALE SHORT TROUGHS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.
TONIGHT.  THE LEAD WAVE IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION
AND GULF OF MEXICO...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION...SUPPORTED BY AN INFLOW OF MODERATE TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED AIR...LIKELY WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED NEAR A REMNANT SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO.  IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...ACTIVITY COULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AND STRONG TO
SEVERE...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH FLORIDA GULF COASTAL AREAS
OR WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY.  RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THIS COMPLEX MAY...HOWEVER...IMPACT
COASTAL AREAS FROM LOUISIANA EASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...REMNANT DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE TAMPA AREA BY 01-02Z...BEFORE CONTINUING TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH/DISSIPATE.

...PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
SPLIT WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC...APPEARS TO
BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST WHILE SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY 03-04Z.

..KERR.. 04/18/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 171935
SWODY1
SPC AC 171933

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS A
PORTION OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH THE RISK FOR HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LIMITS.

...DISCUSSION...
ASIDE FROM TRIMMING THUNDER/SEVERE PROBABILITY LINES TO REFLECT
CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED TRENDS...THE OVERALL FORECAST/REASONING
REMAINS VALID.  A STRONGER STORM OR TWO STILL COULD PRODUCE
LOCAL/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR WIND OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/S
FL...MAINLY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  ELSEWHERE...LIGHTNING MAY
SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION OVERNIGHT AS A MORE WIDESPREAD
CLUSTER OF STORMS CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND A FEW STRIKES
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER PARTS OF NRN
CA/SERN OREGON/SWRN ID/NWRN NV AS AN UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE ERN PACIFIC.

..GOSS.. 04/17/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

...SOUTH FLORIDA...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS CONGESTUS SWELLING OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA COMMENSURATE WITH DIURNALLY BOLSTERED PBL
CIRCULATIONS. THE GREATEST AGITATION TO THE CU FIELD IS NOTED OVER
THE SRN TIP OF THE PENINSULA...WHERE SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AMIDST LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. THIS
YIELDS 2000-3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...AIDED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SAMPLED BY THE 12Z MFL RAOB DEPICTING AN H5 TEMPERATURE AROUND
-12C. THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS REPRESENTATIVE OF MUCH OF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHERE AN INCREASING INFLUX OF MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS OWING TO VEERING
OF POST-FRONTAL FLOW. FARTHER N...SUCH AIR MASS MODIFICATION HAS
BEEN LESS PROMINENT YIELDING A DECLINE OF BUOYANCY WITH NWD EXTENT
ACROSS FL -- ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A TAMPA-MELBOURNE LINE.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS STATIC
STABILITY DIURNALLY LOWERS AND SEA/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
INTENSIFY. WITH MIAMI VWP SAMPLING MODEST 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR --
I.E. AROUND 20-25 KT -- MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR W OF THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS...AS MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE IS FAVORED INVOF THE W
COAST BY BACKGROUND LOW-LEVEL ELYS AND CONVECTION REGENERATES TOWARD
7.0-7.5-C/KM SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE...CONVECTION MAY BE
RATHER DISORGANIZED -- REDUCING THE OVERALL SVR COVERAGE AND
PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR SLIGHT-RISK DESIGNATION.

...ELSEWHERE...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO GAIN AMPLITUDE AS IT PROGRESSES EWD...WITH LEADING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM ADVECTION FOCUSING SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND VICINITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO EXTEND NWD INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION WITHIN
A PLUME OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY PRECEDING THE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A
FEW STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS TO
THE GREAT BASIN...AS DCVA PRECEDING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST INTERCEPTS STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES AND MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 171935
SWODY1
SPC AC 171933

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS A
PORTION OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH THE RISK FOR HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LIMITS.

...DISCUSSION...
ASIDE FROM TRIMMING THUNDER/SEVERE PROBABILITY LINES TO REFLECT
CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED TRENDS...THE OVERALL FORECAST/REASONING
REMAINS VALID.  A STRONGER STORM OR TWO STILL COULD PRODUCE
LOCAL/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR WIND OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/S
FL...MAINLY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  ELSEWHERE...LIGHTNING MAY
SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION OVERNIGHT AS A MORE WIDESPREAD
CLUSTER OF STORMS CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND A FEW STRIKES
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER PARTS OF NRN
CA/SERN OREGON/SWRN ID/NWRN NV AS AN UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE ERN PACIFIC.

..GOSS.. 04/17/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

...SOUTH FLORIDA...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CUMULUS CONGESTUS SWELLING OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA COMMENSURATE WITH DIURNALLY BOLSTERED PBL
CIRCULATIONS. THE GREATEST AGITATION TO THE CU FIELD IS NOTED OVER
THE SRN TIP OF THE PENINSULA...WHERE SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AMIDST LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS. THIS
YIELDS 2000-3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...AIDED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SAMPLED BY THE 12Z MFL RAOB DEPICTING AN H5 TEMPERATURE AROUND
-12C. THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS REPRESENTATIVE OF MUCH OF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHERE AN INCREASING INFLUX OF MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS OWING TO VEERING
OF POST-FRONTAL FLOW. FARTHER N...SUCH AIR MASS MODIFICATION HAS
BEEN LESS PROMINENT YIELDING A DECLINE OF BUOYANCY WITH NWD EXTENT
ACROSS FL -- ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A TAMPA-MELBOURNE LINE.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY AS STATIC
STABILITY DIURNALLY LOWERS AND SEA/LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
INTENSIFY. WITH MIAMI VWP SAMPLING MODEST 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR --
I.E. AROUND 20-25 KT -- MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR W OF THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS...AS MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE IS FAVORED INVOF THE W
COAST BY BACKGROUND LOW-LEVEL ELYS AND CONVECTION REGENERATES TOWARD
7.0-7.5-C/KM SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE...CONVECTION MAY BE
RATHER DISORGANIZED -- REDUCING THE OVERALL SVR COVERAGE AND
PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR SLIGHT-RISK DESIGNATION.

...ELSEWHERE...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO GAIN AMPLITUDE AS IT PROGRESSES EWD...WITH LEADING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM ADVECTION FOCUSING SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND VICINITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO EXTEND NWD INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION WITHIN
A PLUME OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY PRECEDING THE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A
FEW STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS TO
THE GREAT BASIN...AS DCVA PRECEDING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST INTERCEPTS STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES AND MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM.






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