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000
ACUS01 KWNS 210048
SWODY1
SPC AC 210046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND ACROSS
THE SOUTH FLORIDA VICINITY.  GRADUALLY WEAKENING CONVECTION WILL
ALSO CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NEW
MEXICO/ARIZONA/WESTERN TEXAS VICINITY.  FINALLY...SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL/EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA.

...SYNOPSIS...
SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW FIELD OVER THE U.S.
/CONSISTING OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC AND A
SECOND CROSSING THE ERN STATES/ WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER THE OH VICINITY ATTM INVOF
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  LIKEWISE...ISOLATED STORMS MAY PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM
OVER PARTS OF SRN FL AND THE KEYS.

FARTHER W...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM PARTS
OF ERN NM EWD TO WRN PORTIONS OF TX...NEAR A WEAKENING CUT-OFF LOW
LINGERING ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM.  A DIURNAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY/LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FINALLY...SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN CA/PAC NW VICINITY THIS EVENING AS THE WRN
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE.

..GOSS.. 10/21/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 210048
SWODY1
SPC AC 210046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY...AND ACROSS
THE SOUTH FLORIDA VICINITY.  GRADUALLY WEAKENING CONVECTION WILL
ALSO CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NEW
MEXICO/ARIZONA/WESTERN TEXAS VICINITY.  FINALLY...SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL/EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA.

...SYNOPSIS...
SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW FIELD OVER THE U.S.
/CONSISTING OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC AND A
SECOND CROSSING THE ERN STATES/ WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.  SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER THE OH VICINITY ATTM INVOF
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  LIKEWISE...ISOLATED STORMS MAY PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM
OVER PARTS OF SRN FL AND THE KEYS.

FARTHER W...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM PARTS
OF ERN NM EWD TO WRN PORTIONS OF TX...NEAR A WEAKENING CUT-OFF LOW
LINGERING ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM.  A DIURNAL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY/LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FINALLY...SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN CA/PAC NW VICINITY THIS EVENING AS THE WRN
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE.

..GOSS.. 10/21/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 202002
SWODY1
SPC AC 202000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN PROBABLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST FROM WASHINGTON TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY TONIGHT.

...DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED. SMALL HAIL MIGHT ACCOMPANY A SOME OF THE CONVECTION OVER NRN
CA AHEAD OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTED BY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD.

..DIAL.. 10/20/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH NEAR CHICAGO WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
OH VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.  WEAK BUOYANCY ACCOMPANYING THE BAND OF ASCENT
IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING FROM NE INDIANA ACROSS
OH.  RAPID AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
WAVE APPROACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST...THOUGH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE.

ANOTHER NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE PAC TODAY AND
THE NRN GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IN THE ONSHORE FLOW/POST-FRONTAL REGIME...AND
THE THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL EXTEND AS FAR S AS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
OF NRN CA.  ISOLATED STRIKES MAY ALSO OCCUR FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN...WHERE ASCENT COINCIDES WITH WEAK
MIDLEVEL BUOYANCY.  ELSEWHERE...WIDELY-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SRN STREAM
TROUGH NEAR THE AZ/NM/MEXICO BORDER REGION...AND ACROSS S TX/S FL
WITHIN THE N/NE FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK TROPICAL LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.






000
ACUS01 KWNS 202002
SWODY1
SPC AC 202000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN PROBABLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST FROM WASHINGTON TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY TONIGHT.

...DISCUSSION...

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED. SMALL HAIL MIGHT ACCOMPANY A SOME OF THE CONVECTION OVER NRN
CA AHEAD OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTED BY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD.

..DIAL.. 10/20/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH NEAR CHICAGO WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
OH VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.  WEAK BUOYANCY ACCOMPANYING THE BAND OF ASCENT
IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING FROM NE INDIANA ACROSS
OH.  RAPID AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
WAVE APPROACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST...THOUGH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE.

ANOTHER NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE PAC TODAY AND
THE NRN GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IN THE ONSHORE FLOW/POST-FRONTAL REGIME...AND
THE THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL EXTEND AS FAR S AS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
OF NRN CA.  ISOLATED STRIKES MAY ALSO OCCUR FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN...WHERE ASCENT COINCIDES WITH WEAK
MIDLEVEL BUOYANCY.  ELSEWHERE...WIDELY-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SRN STREAM
TROUGH NEAR THE AZ/NM/MEXICO BORDER REGION...AND ACROSS S TX/S FL
WITHIN THE N/NE FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK TROPICAL LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.





000
ACUS02 KWNS 201719
SWODY2
SPC AC 201718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
WEST...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND PERHAPS OVER A PORTION OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED
LOW AS IT MOVES EWD...REACHING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END
OF DAY 2. CUTOFF UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER NRN MEXICO SHOULD DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST TOWARD WRN TX DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH
NOW APPROACHING THE WRN U.S. COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CNTRL
AND NRN ROCKIES.

AT THE SFC A LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES WRN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. AN OCCLUDED LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND OFF THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN STATES.

...SRN THROUGH CNTRL ROCKIES AREA...

PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD AHEAD OF
THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH CLOSED UPPER
LOW CIRCULATION OVER NRN MEXICO. WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED CONVECTION INCLUDING
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING.

...NERN STATES...

COLD AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW AND ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THIS FEATURE
SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE NERN STATES. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY
WEAK /GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG/ IT MIGHT BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A MORE GENERAL AREA OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...SRN FL...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN PLUME
OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD
CHARACTERIZE THE SRN FL PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR TUESDAY.

..DIAL.. 10/20/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 201620
SWODY1
SPC AC 201618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST FROM WASHINGTON TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH NEAR CHICAGO WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
OH VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.  WEAK BUOYANCY ACCOMPANYING THE BAND OF ASCENT
IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING FROM NE INDIANA ACROSS
OH.  RAPID AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
WAVE APPROACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST...THOUGH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE.

ANOTHER NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE PAC TODAY AND
THE NRN GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IN THE ONSHORE FLOW/POST-FRONTAL REGIME...AND
THE THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL EXTEND AS FAR S AS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
OF NRN CA.  ISOLATED STRIKES MAY ALSO OCCUR FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN...WHERE ASCENT COINCIDES WITH WEAK
MIDLEVEL BUOYANCY.  ELSEWHERE...WIDELY-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SRN STREAM
TROUGH NEAR THE AZ/NM/MEXICO BORDER REGION...AND ACROSS S TX/S FL
WITHIN THE N/NE FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK TROPICAL LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 10/20/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 201620
SWODY1
SPC AC 201618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST FROM WASHINGTON TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN BY TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH NEAR CHICAGO WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER THE
OH VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.  WEAK BUOYANCY ACCOMPANYING THE BAND OF ASCENT
IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING FROM NE INDIANA ACROSS
OH.  RAPID AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
WAVE APPROACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST...THOUGH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR JUST OFFSHORE.

ANOTHER NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE PAC TODAY AND
THE NRN GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IN THE ONSHORE FLOW/POST-FRONTAL REGIME...AND
THE THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL EXTEND AS FAR S AS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
OF NRN CA.  ISOLATED STRIKES MAY ALSO OCCUR FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN...WHERE ASCENT COINCIDES WITH WEAK
MIDLEVEL BUOYANCY.  ELSEWHERE...WIDELY-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SRN STREAM
TROUGH NEAR THE AZ/NM/MEXICO BORDER REGION...AND ACROSS S TX/S FL
WITHIN THE N/NE FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WEAK TROPICAL LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 10/20/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 201229
SWODY1
SPC AC 201228

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...OHIO VALLEY AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

...SYNOPSIS...

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ONE
PERIOD...FEATURING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST
COAST...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO
GREAT PLAINS...AND A LONGER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. WITHIN THIS SYNOPTIC REGIME...A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO MID MS VALLEY WILL PROGRESS SEWD
THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS...SUPPORTING THE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE
PARENT LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. FARTHER SW...A
SUBTROPICAL-BRANCH VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE
TRACKING ACROSS NRN MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO THE GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE
MENTIONED ABOVE WILL DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS. THE
WRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU TO SRN HIGH PLAINS BEFORE MOVING NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.

...CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO SRN PLAINS...

A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NERN OK/NWRN AR WITHIN A
WAA PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ. ANY ONGOING STORMS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WEAKENS WITH THE CESSATION OF THE LLJ. BY AFTERNOON...HEATING
ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PROXIMITY
TO THE NRN MEXICO DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES.
EXPECT TSTMS TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. WEAK AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

A SHORT BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER SRN LAKE MI WITHIN A ZONE OF DCVA AND STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATTENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED THIS MORNING
PRIOR TO INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
ERIE INTO OH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

...PACIFIC NW COAST...

CONSIDERABLE COOLING ALOFT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LAND-FALLING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
FEW WEAK TSTMS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 10/20/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 201229
SWODY1
SPC AC 201228

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROBABLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...OHIO VALLEY AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

...SYNOPSIS...

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY ONE
PERIOD...FEATURING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST
COAST...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO
GREAT PLAINS...AND A LONGER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH OVER THE ERN THIRD OF
THE NATION. WITHIN THIS SYNOPTIC REGIME...A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO MID MS VALLEY WILL PROGRESS SEWD
THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS...SUPPORTING THE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE
PARENT LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. FARTHER SW...A
SUBTROPICAL-BRANCH VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE
TRACKING ACROSS NRN MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO THE GREAT LAKES DISTURBANCE
MENTIONED ABOVE WILL DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS. THE
WRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU TO SRN HIGH PLAINS BEFORE MOVING NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.

...CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO SRN PLAINS...

A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NERN OK/NWRN AR WITHIN A
WAA PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ. ANY ONGOING STORMS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WEAKENS WITH THE CESSATION OF THE LLJ. BY AFTERNOON...HEATING
ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PROXIMITY
TO THE NRN MEXICO DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES.
EXPECT TSTMS TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. WEAK AMOUNTS OF
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE A RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

A SHORT BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER SRN LAKE MI WITHIN A ZONE OF DCVA AND STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATTENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED THIS MORNING
PRIOR TO INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE
ERIE INTO OH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

...PACIFIC NW COAST...

CONSIDERABLE COOLING ALOFT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LAND-FALLING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
FEW WEAK TSTMS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 10/20/2014





000
ACUS03 KWNS 200701
SWODY3
SPC AC 200701

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  ELSEWHERE...A FEW
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY 3 PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD FROM A LOW OVER S-CNTRL
CANADA INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS STATES DURING THE DAY AS SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TRANSPORTS A NARROW PLUME OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO PRIMARILY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND
PERHAPS LATER FARTHER E AND S OVER WRN MO AND OK.  MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NEGATE APPRECIABLE
SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

..SMITH.. 10/20/2014





000
ACUS03 KWNS 200701
SWODY3
SPC AC 200701

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  ELSEWHERE...A FEW
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY 3 PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD FROM A LOW OVER S-CNTRL
CANADA INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS STATES DURING THE DAY AS SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TRANSPORTS A NARROW PLUME OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO PRIMARILY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND
PERHAPS LATER FARTHER E AND S OVER WRN MO AND OK.  MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NEGATE APPRECIABLE
SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.

..SMITH.. 10/20/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 200545
SWODY2
SPC AC 200545

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
WEST...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND PERHAPS NEAR SOUTHERN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER INTERIOR ORE AND THE WRN
GREAT BASIN TUESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND INTO MT/WY TUESDAY NIGHT.  FARTHER E...A
LARGE MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ERN STATES WILL
EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LEE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ID...NRN UT...AND WRN WY BY EARLY EVENING.  ELSEWHERE...A STOUT
SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO AND AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER PARTS
OF THE NERN U.S. AND ADJACENT WRN ATLANTIC WATERS.

...NRN UT/SERN ID...
MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION.  THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED VERSUS A SLOWER SOLUTION /NAM/.  DESPITE THE
MODEL TIMING VARIABILITY...MARGINAL BUOYANCY /FEW HUNDRED SBCAPE/
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO PRIMARILY DEVELOP NEAR AN
EWD-SWEEPING COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS LEND
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO
AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL WITH A STRONGER STORM.

...SRN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NY AND INTO THE DELMARVA REGION
WILL DEVELOP ESEWD AND CENTER NEAR THE NJ COAST BY NIGHTFALL WITH A
TONGUE OF MID 50S DEWPOINTS REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF
RI/MA AROUND MIDDAY.  A BAND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS E OF LONG ISLAND AND PERHAPS GLANCE COASTAL MA
BEFORE MOVING EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC.

..SMITH.. 10/20/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 200545
SWODY2
SPC AC 200545

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
WEST...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND PERHAPS NEAR SOUTHERN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER INTERIOR ORE AND THE WRN
GREAT BASIN TUESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND INTO MT/WY TUESDAY NIGHT.  FARTHER E...A
LARGE MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE ERN STATES WILL
EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LEE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
DURING THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ID...NRN UT...AND WRN WY BY EARLY EVENING.  ELSEWHERE...A STOUT
SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO AND AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER PARTS
OF THE NERN U.S. AND ADJACENT WRN ATLANTIC WATERS.

...NRN UT/SERN ID...
MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION.  THE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED VERSUS A SLOWER SOLUTION /NAM/.  DESPITE THE
MODEL TIMING VARIABILITY...MARGINAL BUOYANCY /FEW HUNDRED SBCAPE/
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO PRIMARILY DEVELOP NEAR AN
EWD-SWEEPING COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS LEND
THE POSSIBILITY FOR A CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO
AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL WITH A STRONGER STORM.

...SRN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NY AND INTO THE DELMARVA REGION
WILL DEVELOP ESEWD AND CENTER NEAR THE NJ COAST BY NIGHTFALL WITH A
TONGUE OF MID 50S DEWPOINTS REACHING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF
RI/MA AROUND MIDDAY.  A BAND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS E OF LONG ISLAND AND PERHAPS GLANCE COASTAL MA
BEFORE MOVING EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC.

..SMITH.. 10/20/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 200544
SWODY1
SPC AC 200542

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN AREAS
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

...SYNOPSIS...
SEMI-AMPLIFIED WESTERLIES WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INLAND/EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN CA/ORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES VICINITY. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...MULTIPLE AREAS OF AT LEAST A LOW THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS.

...SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A WEAKENING/SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NM/FAR WEST TX THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
GIVEN LIMITED BUOYANCY AND VERY WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR /15 KT OR
LESS/.

...OH VALLEY...
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY IN VICINITY OF A
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHTNING/FEW THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY
ACROSS PARTS OF OH AND THE LAKE ERIE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OFFSHORE/NEAR-COASTAL AREAS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST VIA LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION NEAR/BEHIND AN
INLAND-MOVING FRONTAL BAND.

..GUYER/JIRAK.. 10/20/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 200544
SWODY1
SPC AC 200542

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN AREAS
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

...SYNOPSIS...
SEMI-AMPLIFIED WESTERLIES WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
INLAND/EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN CA/ORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES VICINITY. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...MULTIPLE AREAS OF AT LEAST A LOW THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS.

...SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A WEAKENING/SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NM/FAR WEST TX THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
GIVEN LIMITED BUOYANCY AND VERY WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR /15 KT OR
LESS/.

...OH VALLEY...
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY IN VICINITY OF A
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHTNING/FEW THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY
ACROSS PARTS OF OH AND THE LAKE ERIE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OFFSHORE/NEAR-COASTAL AREAS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST VIA LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION NEAR/BEHIND AN
INLAND-MOVING FRONTAL BAND.

..GUYER/JIRAK.. 10/20/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 200058
SWODY1
SPC AC 200056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...SOUTHERN AZ/NM TO WEST TX...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHERN NM INTO FAR
WEST TX...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POTENTIALLY INCREASING
LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/OK AND THE OZARKS.
WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF AZ/NM AND/OR FAR SOUTHWEST TX...MULTIPLE FACTORS
INCLUDING THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RELATIVELY MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IMPLY ONLY A VERY LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT.

..GUYER.. 10/20/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 200058
SWODY1
SPC AC 200056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...SOUTHERN AZ/NM TO WEST TX...
AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ/SOUTHERN NM INTO FAR
WEST TX...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POTENTIALLY INCREASING
LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/OK AND THE OZARKS.
WHILE A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF AZ/NM AND/OR FAR SOUTHWEST TX...MULTIPLE FACTORS
INCLUDING THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RELATIVELY MODEST DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IMPLY ONLY A VERY LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT.

..GUYER.. 10/20/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 191953
SWODY1
SPC AC 191951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
ADDITIONAL/MORE ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...DISCUSSION...
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 10/19/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT EWD OVER SRN AZ/NW MEXICO WITHIN THE
SRN STREAM OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE WRN STATES.  GRADUAL
LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTENING /PER 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS/ AND WEAK ASCENT
NE OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR
WIDELY-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AZ/NM.  FARTHER E...AN INFLUX
OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SW TX
WILL MAINTAIN A THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH TONIGHT.  ALSO...A WEAK
WAA REGIME MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
INVOF THE KS/OK BORDER.

...SE AZ TO SRN NM/FAR W TX THIS AFTERNOON...
THE ONLY POTENTIAL RISK AREA FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE FROM EXTREME SE AZ EWD ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR W TX.  12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM EPZ/TUS...MODIFIED FOR EXPECTED AFTERNOON SURFACE
CONDITIONS...YIELD MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7-8 C/KM.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ON THE LOWER MARGINS
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KT/.
SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT THE OVERALL HAIL/WIND RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
THE ADDITION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 191953
SWODY1
SPC AC 191951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
ADDITIONAL/MORE ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...DISCUSSION...
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 10/19/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT EWD OVER SRN AZ/NW MEXICO WITHIN THE
SRN STREAM OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE WRN STATES.  GRADUAL
LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTENING /PER 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS/ AND WEAK ASCENT
NE OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR
WIDELY-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AZ/NM.  FARTHER E...AN INFLUX
OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SW TX
WILL MAINTAIN A THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH TONIGHT.  ALSO...A WEAK
WAA REGIME MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
INVOF THE KS/OK BORDER.

...SE AZ TO SRN NM/FAR W TX THIS AFTERNOON...
THE ONLY POTENTIAL RISK AREA FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE FROM EXTREME SE AZ EWD ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR W TX.  12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM EPZ/TUS...MODIFIED FOR EXPECTED AFTERNOON SURFACE
CONDITIONS...YIELD MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7-8 C/KM.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ON THE LOWER MARGINS
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KT/.
SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT THE OVERALL HAIL/WIND RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
THE ADDITION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.






000
ACUS02 KWNS 191722
SWODY2
SPC AC 191721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
OREGON AND WASHINGTON.  ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW FIELD IS PROGGED ACROSS
THE U.S. AND CANADA MONDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE ERN
STATES AND A SECOND MOVES INTO THE W.  IN BETWEEN...STRONG/SHARP
RIDGING WILL SHIFT INTO/ACROSS THE PRAIRIE/PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL...THOUGH A
WEAK LOW/FRONT WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION...WHILE A
STRONGER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WRN U.S. AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
UPPER TROUGH.

WITH A DRY/STABLE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS...THUNDER RISK WILL REMAIN LIMITED.  ASIDE FROM FAR S FL AND
THE KEYS...AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE PAC NW...THE ONLY APPRECIABLE
THUNDER RISK WILL EXIST OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO PARTS OF
TX/OK...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING CUT-OFF LOW.

..GOSS.. 10/19/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 191722
SWODY2
SPC AC 191721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
OREGON AND WASHINGTON.  ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW FIELD IS PROGGED ACROSS
THE U.S. AND CANADA MONDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE ERN
STATES AND A SECOND MOVES INTO THE W.  IN BETWEEN...STRONG/SHARP
RIDGING WILL SHIFT INTO/ACROSS THE PRAIRIE/PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL...THOUGH A
WEAK LOW/FRONT WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION...WHILE A
STRONGER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WRN U.S. AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
UPPER TROUGH.

WITH A DRY/STABLE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS...THUNDER RISK WILL REMAIN LIMITED.  ASIDE FROM FAR S FL AND
THE KEYS...AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE PAC NW...THE ONLY APPRECIABLE
THUNDER RISK WILL EXIST OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO PARTS OF
TX/OK...AHEAD OF A WEAKENING CUT-OFF LOW.

..GOSS.. 10/19/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 191628
SWODY1
SPC AC 191627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MORE
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT EWD OVER SRN AZ/NW MEXICO WITHIN THE
SRN STREAM OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE WRN STATES.  GRADUAL
LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTENING /PER 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS/ AND WEAK ASCENT
NE OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR
WIDELY-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AZ/NM.  FARTHER E...AN INFLUX
OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SW TX
WILL MAINTAIN A THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH TONIGHT.  ALSO...A WEAK
WAA REGIME MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
INVOF THE KS/OK BORDER.

...SE AZ TO SRN NM/FAR W TX THIS AFTERNOON...
THE ONLY POTENTIAL RISK AREA FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE FROM EXTREME SE AZ EWD ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR W TX.  12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM EPZ/TUS...MODIFIED FOR EXPECTED AFTERNOON SURFACE
CONDITIONS...YIELD MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7-8 C/KM.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ON THE LOWER MARGINS
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KT/.
SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT THE OVERALL HAIL/WIND RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
THE ADDITION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 10/19/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 191628
SWODY1
SPC AC 191627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MORE
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLOSED LOW WILL DRIFT EWD OVER SRN AZ/NW MEXICO WITHIN THE
SRN STREAM OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE WRN STATES.  GRADUAL
LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTENING /PER 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS/ AND WEAK ASCENT
NE OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR
WIDELY-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AZ/NM.  FARTHER E...AN INFLUX
OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SW TX
WILL MAINTAIN A THUNDERSTORM RISK THROUGH TONIGHT.  ALSO...A WEAK
WAA REGIME MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
INVOF THE KS/OK BORDER.

...SE AZ TO SRN NM/FAR W TX THIS AFTERNOON...
THE ONLY POTENTIAL RISK AREA FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE FROM EXTREME SE AZ EWD ACROSS SRN NM AND FAR W TX.  12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM EPZ/TUS...MODIFIED FOR EXPECTED AFTERNOON SURFACE
CONDITIONS...YIELD MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7-8 C/KM.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ON THE LOWER MARGINS
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KT/.
SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT THE OVERALL HAIL/WIND RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
THE ADDITION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 10/19/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 191239
SWODY1
SPC AC 191237

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MORE
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...

THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER CONUS WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AND
SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD. WITHIN A LONG-WAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE ERN THIRD OF THE NATION...A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EJECT NEWD OFFSHORE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM WHICH WILL INTENSIFY WHILE TRANSLATING
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
OH VALLEY. FARTHER WEST...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING FROM WRN
CANADA INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ELSEWHERE...A LOW-LATITUDE
CUT-OFF LOW WILL DRIFT ESEWD FROM THE LOWER CO VALLEY/NRN GULF OF CA
INTO NWRN MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...AN EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE OZARKS
WILL BUILD EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NRN/CNTRL PLAINS.

...SWRN DESERTS TO CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ONGOING AS OF 12Z OVER PARTS OF AZ/NM
WITHIN A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT
PRECEDING THE CUT-OFF LOW. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT
A GENERAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER
AZ/NM/SRN CO. ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM/WRN TX.

LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. HOWEVER...MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...A SEPARATE AREA OF TSTMS MAY ARISE
ALONG THE SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER SRN KS/NRN OK AS CONVERGENCE
IS ENHANCED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LLJ. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 10/19/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 191239
SWODY1
SPC AC 191237

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MORE
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...

THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER CONUS WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED AND
SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD. WITHIN A LONG-WAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE ERN THIRD OF THE NATION...A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL EJECT NEWD OFFSHORE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM WHICH WILL INTENSIFY WHILE TRANSLATING
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND LOWER
OH VALLEY. FARTHER WEST...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFYING FROM WRN
CANADA INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ELSEWHERE...A LOW-LATITUDE
CUT-OFF LOW WILL DRIFT ESEWD FROM THE LOWER CO VALLEY/NRN GULF OF CA
INTO NWRN MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...AN EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE OZARKS
WILL BUILD EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NRN/CNTRL PLAINS.

...SWRN DESERTS TO CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ONGOING AS OF 12Z OVER PARTS OF AZ/NM
WITHIN A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT
PRECEDING THE CUT-OFF LOW. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE ONSET OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT
A GENERAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER
AZ/NM/SRN CO. ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM/WRN TX.

LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. HOWEVER...MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...A SEPARATE AREA OF TSTMS MAY ARISE
ALONG THE SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER SRN KS/NRN OK AS CONVERGENCE
IS ENHANCED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LLJ. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 10/19/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 190722
SWODY3
SPC AC 190721

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
WEST...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND PERHAPS NEAR SOUTHERN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MATURE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  FARTHER W...A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE MID MO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF
A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN GREAT BASIN.  A FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN AND NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY 3 PERIOD.  AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LEAD TO GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO MUCH
OF THE SERN U.S.

...NRN UT/SRN ID...
MODELS DIFFER REGARDING THE AMPLIFICATION AND TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION.  THE RECENT ITERATIONS
OF THE ECMWF ARE FAVORED SHOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH A
LEAD DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM ID INTO MT DURING THE DAY.  MARGINAL
INSTABILITY MAY YIELD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY NEAR A COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND...
COLD TEMPS ALOFT /-20 DEG C AT H5/ IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WOULD SUPPORT DEEPER CONVECTION AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EVEN WITH MODEST SURFACE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.  BUT IT
APPEARS THE MARITIME AIR WILL PROBABLY REMAIN NEAR OR IMMEDIATELY
OFF THE COAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND.

..SMITH.. 10/19/2014






000
ACUS03 KWNS 190722
SWODY3
SPC AC 190721

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
WEST...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND PERHAPS NEAR SOUTHERN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MATURE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  FARTHER W...A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE MID MO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF
A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN GREAT BASIN.  A FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN AND NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY 3 PERIOD.  AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LEAD TO GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO MUCH
OF THE SERN U.S.

...NRN UT/SRN ID...
MODELS DIFFER REGARDING THE AMPLIFICATION AND TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION.  THE RECENT ITERATIONS
OF THE ECMWF ARE FAVORED SHOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH A
LEAD DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM ID INTO MT DURING THE DAY.  MARGINAL
INSTABILITY MAY YIELD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY NEAR A COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND...
COLD TEMPS ALOFT /-20 DEG C AT H5/ IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH WOULD SUPPORT DEEPER CONVECTION AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EVEN WITH MODEST SURFACE TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.  BUT IT
APPEARS THE MARITIME AIR WILL PROBABLY REMAIN NEAR OR IMMEDIATELY
OFF THE COAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND.

..SMITH.. 10/19/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 190520
SWODY2
SPC AC 190519

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN
OREGON AND WASHINGTON.  ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE CONTINUATION OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN INTO MONDAY
WILL FEATURE A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN STATES FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC...A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...AND A TROUGH OVER
MUCH OF THE ERN SEABOARD.  A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SLOWLY MEANDER EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND SERVE AS A SUPPORTING
IMPETUS FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.  A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FARTHER N OVER THE SRN AND
CNTRL ROCKIES INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN ONTARIO SWWD INTO OK.  LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY
AND SEVERAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER SW OVER OK WHERE GREATER
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.  OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF THE W COAST.  SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL SEEMS NEGLIGIBLE OVER
THE LOWER 48 STATES ON MONDAY.

..SMITH.. 10/19/2014






000
ACUS02 KWNS 190520
SWODY2
SPC AC 190519

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN
OREGON AND WASHINGTON.  ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE CONTINUATION OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN INTO MONDAY
WILL FEATURE A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN STATES FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC...A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...AND A TROUGH OVER
MUCH OF THE ERN SEABOARD.  A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SLOWLY MEANDER EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND SERVE AS A SUPPORTING
IMPETUS FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM AND TX.  A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FARTHER N OVER THE SRN AND
CNTRL ROCKIES INVOF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN ONTARIO SWWD INTO OK.  LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY
AND SEVERAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER SW OVER OK WHERE GREATER
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.  OTHER ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF THE W COAST.  SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL SEEMS NEGLIGIBLE OVER
THE LOWER 48 STATES ON MONDAY.

..SMITH.. 10/19/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 190505
SWODY1
SPC AC 190503

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SEMI-PROGRESSIVE/SPLIT LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE
CONUS INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONGER AMPLIFIED WESTERLIES WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND CANADA...HIGHLIGHTED
BY AN AMPLIFYING CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...A
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO WEST/SOUTHWEST TX...AND
POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.

...FAR SOUTHEAST AZ AND FAR SOUTHERN NM/SOUTHWEST TX...
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ASIDE...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/UPPER JET EXIT
REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN AZ INTO NM AND FAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST TX. POCKETS OF LOCALLY STRONGER...ALBEIT
MODEST...BUOYANCY WITH AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ARE LIKELY TO
MATERIALIZE BY AFTERNOON WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST AZ TO
SOUTHERN NM/FAR WEST TX. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT CURRENTLY APPEARED WARRANTED IN THE
PRESENCE OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SHEAR GENERALLY 15-30
KT/.

..GUYER/JIRAK.. 10/19/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 190505
SWODY1
SPC AC 190503

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SEMI-PROGRESSIVE/SPLIT LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE
CONUS INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONGER AMPLIFIED WESTERLIES WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND CANADA...HIGHLIGHTED
BY AN AMPLIFYING CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...A
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO WEST/SOUTHWEST TX...AND
POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.

...FAR SOUTHEAST AZ AND FAR SOUTHERN NM/SOUTHWEST TX...
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS ASIDE...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/UPPER JET EXIT
REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN AZ INTO NM AND FAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST TX. POCKETS OF LOCALLY STRONGER...ALBEIT
MODEST...BUOYANCY WITH AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ARE LIKELY TO
MATERIALIZE BY AFTERNOON WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST AZ TO
SOUTHERN NM/FAR WEST TX. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY DISCOUNTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT CURRENTLY APPEARED WARRANTED IN THE
PRESENCE OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SHEAR GENERALLY 15-30
KT/.

..GUYER/JIRAK.. 10/19/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 190059
SWODY1
SPC AC 190058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH TEXAS.

...FOUR CORNERS AREA AND SOUTH TX...
MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF WESTERLIES
OVER THE CONUS AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENTS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO LINGER IN THESE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED.

..GUYER.. 10/19/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 190059
SWODY1
SPC AC 190058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH TEXAS.

...FOUR CORNERS AREA AND SOUTH TX...
MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF WESTERLIES
OVER THE CONUS AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENTS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO LINGER IN THESE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED.

..GUYER.. 10/19/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 181936
SWODY1
SPC AC 181934

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED STORMS ARE ALSO
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH TEXAS INTO
TONIGHT.

...DISCUSSION...
ASIDE FROM A COUPLE OF MINOR TWEAKS TO THUNDER AREAS...ONGOING
FORECAST REMAINS VALID AND THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NECESSARY ATTM.

..GOSS.. 10/18/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF SRN CA/NRN
BAJA.  WEAK BUOYANCY WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE ISOLATED/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...GRADUAL LOW-MIDLEVEL
MOISTENING ACROSS AZ/NM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.  A SEPARATE CORRIDOR OF TROPICAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO S TX ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.





000
ACUS01 KWNS 181936
SWODY1
SPC AC 181934

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED STORMS ARE ALSO
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH TEXAS INTO
TONIGHT.

...DISCUSSION...
ASIDE FROM A COUPLE OF MINOR TWEAKS TO THUNDER AREAS...ONGOING
FORECAST REMAINS VALID AND THUS NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NECESSARY ATTM.

..GOSS.. 10/18/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF SRN CA/NRN
BAJA.  WEAK BUOYANCY WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE ISOLATED/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...GRADUAL LOW-MIDLEVEL
MOISTENING ACROSS AZ/NM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.  A SEPARATE CORRIDOR OF TROPICAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO S TX ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.






000
ACUS02 KWNS 181726
SWODY2
SPC AC 181725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM PARTS OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES...SOUTHWARD INTO
AREAS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE U.S. DAY
2...WITH A COMPLEX TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN U.S./ERN CANADA AND
A SECOND APPROACHING THE W COAST LATE.  MEANWHILE...A WEAK SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT EWD INVOF THE SWRN U.S./NWRN
MEXICO BORDER.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY...THOUGH A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE SEWD OUT OF CANADA TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DIGGING MID-LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  HOWEVER...WITH A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
INSTEAD...PRIMARY RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST/SRN ROCKIES AND INTO PARTS OF WRN AND SRN
TX...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
KS/OK VICINITY LATE WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ABOVE A
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..GOSS.. 10/18/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 181726
SWODY2
SPC AC 181725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM PARTS OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES...SOUTHWARD INTO
AREAS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE U.S. DAY
2...WITH A COMPLEX TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN U.S./ERN CANADA AND
A SECOND APPROACHING THE W COAST LATE.  MEANWHILE...A WEAK SRN
STREAM UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT EWD INVOF THE SWRN U.S./NWRN
MEXICO BORDER.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY...THOUGH A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE SEWD OUT OF CANADA TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DIGGING MID-LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  HOWEVER...WITH A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
INSTEAD...PRIMARY RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST/SRN ROCKIES AND INTO PARTS OF WRN AND SRN
TX...AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
KS/OK VICINITY LATE WITHIN ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ABOVE A
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..GOSS.. 10/18/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 181610
SWODY1
SPC AC 181609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED STORMS ARE PROBABLE OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH TEXAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF SRN CA/NRN
BAJA.  WEAK BUOYANCY WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE ISOLATED/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...GRADUAL LOW-MIDLEVEL
MOISTENING ACROSS AZ/NM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.  A SEPARATE CORRIDOR OF TROPICAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO S TX ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 10/18/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 181610
SWODY1
SPC AC 181609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED STORMS ARE PROBABLE OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH TEXAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF SRN CA/NRN
BAJA.  WEAK BUOYANCY WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE ISOLATED/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...GRADUAL LOW-MIDLEVEL
MOISTENING ACROSS AZ/NM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.  A SEPARATE CORRIDOR OF TROPICAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO S TX ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 10/18/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 181610
SWODY1
SPC AC 181609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED STORMS ARE PROBABLE OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH TEXAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF SRN CA/NRN
BAJA.  WEAK BUOYANCY WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE ISOLATED/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...GRADUAL LOW-MIDLEVEL
MOISTENING ACROSS AZ/NM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.  A SEPARATE CORRIDOR OF TROPICAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO S TX ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 10/18/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 181610
SWODY1
SPC AC 181609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED STORMS ARE PROBABLE OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH TEXAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS...WITH A SERIES OF NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND...AND A DEVELOPING SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF SRN CA/NRN
BAJA.  WEAK BUOYANCY WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE ISOLATED/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...GRADUAL LOW-MIDLEVEL
MOISTENING ACROSS AZ/NM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.  A SEPARATE CORRIDOR OF TROPICAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO S TX ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 10/18/2014





000
ACUS01 KWNS 181233
SWODY1
SPC AC 181231

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED STORMS ARE PROBABLE OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH TEXAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...

THE ERN U.S. LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED THIS PERIOD BY A
POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WHICH
WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TO OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE TRACK OF THIS IMPULSE WILL HASTEN THE
NEWD MOVEMENT AND GRADUAL WEAKENING OF A DOWNSTREAM SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. FARTHER WEST...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED
SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY/NRN GULF OF CA WHILE A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AMPLIFIES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...AN EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS TO MS VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONTINUED SWD MOVEMENT OF
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE S-CNTRL AND SERN STATES. THE NERN EXTENSION
OF THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE NERN U.S. TODAY.

...NEW ENGLAND...

CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL COOLING AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WILL ATTEND THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. AND LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THESE FACTORS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-TOPPED
BAND OF TSTMS ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS
AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

...SWRN STATES...

AIRFLOW TRAJECTORIES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ONTO THE CA COAST HAVE TRANSPORTED INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS INTO THE REGION. WHEN COUPLED WITH
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THESE DISTURBANCES...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

...S TX...

IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING
MECHANISMS...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND
POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL YIELD ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT VIGOR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS.

..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 10/18/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 181233
SWODY1
SPC AC 181231

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED STORMS ARE PROBABLE OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH TEXAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...

THE ERN U.S. LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED THIS PERIOD BY A
POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WHICH
WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TO OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE TRACK OF THIS IMPULSE WILL HASTEN THE
NEWD MOVEMENT AND GRADUAL WEAKENING OF A DOWNSTREAM SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. FARTHER WEST...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST WILL EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED
SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY/NRN GULF OF CA WHILE A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AMPLIFIES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...AN EXPANSIVE ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT
PLAINS TO MS VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONTINUED SWD MOVEMENT OF
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE S-CNTRL AND SERN STATES. THE NERN EXTENSION
OF THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE NERN U.S. TODAY.

...NEW ENGLAND...

CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL COOLING AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WILL ATTEND THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. AND LATEST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THESE FACTORS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-TOPPED
BAND OF TSTMS ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS
AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

...SWRN STATES...

AIRFLOW TRAJECTORIES ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ONTO THE CA COAST HAVE TRANSPORTED INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS INTO THE REGION. WHEN COUPLED WITH
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THESE DISTURBANCES...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

...S TX...

IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING
MECHANISMS...WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND
POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL YIELD ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND POOR
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT VIGOR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS.

..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 10/18/2014





000
ACUS03 KWNS 180654
SWODY3
SPC AC 180653

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN
OREGON AND WASHINGTON.  ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE IS AGAIN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PARTS OF TEXAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH ALONG
THE W COAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...WITH
A RIDGE SITUATED IN BETWEEN OVER THE PLAINS STATES.  A FAIRLY POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC ENEWD INTO THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DURING THE DAY 3 PERIOD.  MEANWHILE FARTHER
S...A REMNANT MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN
MEXICO.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NWRN CONUS WHILE DOWNSTREAM A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF WRN ORE
WITHIN A MOIST AND COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE.  MODEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE INFLUENCE
OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL YIELD ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY
IN A SEPARATE AREA OVER WEST AND SOUTH TX...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
EXPECTED OVER THE CNTRL-SRN ROCKIES.  ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

..SMITH.. 10/18/2014





000
ACUS03 KWNS 180654
SWODY3
SPC AC 180653

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN
OREGON AND WASHINGTON.  ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE IS AGAIN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PARTS OF TEXAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH ALONG
THE W COAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...WITH
A RIDGE SITUATED IN BETWEEN OVER THE PLAINS STATES.  A FAIRLY POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC ENEWD INTO THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION DURING THE DAY 3 PERIOD.  MEANWHILE FARTHER
S...A REMNANT MID-LEVEL LOW WILL MEANDER SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NRN
MEXICO.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NWRN CONUS WHILE DOWNSTREAM A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF WRN ORE
WITHIN A MOIST AND COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE.  MODEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE INFLUENCE
OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL YIELD ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY
IN A SEPARATE AREA OVER WEST AND SOUTH TX...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
EXPECTED OVER THE CNTRL-SRN ROCKIES.  ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

..SMITH.. 10/18/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 180521
SWODY1
SPC AC 180520

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED STORMS ARE PROBABLE OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH TEXAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

...NEW ENGLAND...
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE TIED TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
DAMPEN AS AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE AMPLIFIES FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO
THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON
THU NIGHT...MARGINAL SURFACE DEW POINTS /UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S/
WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND AVAILABLE BUOYANCY.
SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAVORED WITH A FEW
UPDRAFTS PROBABLY BECOMING DEEP ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TSTMS.
DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL BE STRONG...BUT THE EXPECTED MEAGER
BUOYANCY PRECLUDES MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

...SOUTHWEST...
WHILE ONE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL DECAY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS...AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SE FROM THE CA COAST
TOWARDS THE GULF OF CA. A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE /SAMPLED IN
REGIONAL 00Z RAOBS/ ADVECTED BY THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA AND SHOULD YIELD PREDOMINATELY ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE
PERIOD. MODEST SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE RISK.

...S TX...
ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF A RICH WRN GULF MOISTURE PLUME /EVIDENT IN
GOES PW IMAGERY/...ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED STORMS ARE PROBABLE
WITHIN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD PEAK
THIS MORNING ALONG COASTAL DEEP S TX AND ON SAT NIGHT OVER A BROADER
PORTION OF S TX. WEAK SHEAR WILL INHIBIT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

..GRAMS.. 10/18/2014






000
ACUS01 KWNS 180521
SWODY1
SPC AC 180520

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED STORMS ARE PROBABLE OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH TEXAS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

...NEW ENGLAND...
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE TIED TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
DAMPEN AS AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE AMPLIFIES FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO
THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON
THU NIGHT...MARGINAL SURFACE DEW POINTS /UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S/
WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND AVAILABLE BUOYANCY.
SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAVORED WITH A FEW
UPDRAFTS PROBABLY BECOMING DEEP ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TSTMS.
DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL BE STRONG...BUT THE EXPECTED MEAGER
BUOYANCY PRECLUDES MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

...SOUTHWEST...
WHILE ONE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL DECAY NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS...AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SE FROM THE CA COAST
TOWARDS THE GULF OF CA. A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE /SAMPLED IN
REGIONAL 00Z RAOBS/ ADVECTED BY THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA AND SHOULD YIELD PREDOMINATELY ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE
PERIOD. MODEST SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE RISK.

...S TX...
ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF A RICH WRN GULF MOISTURE PLUME /EVIDENT IN
GOES PW IMAGERY/...ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED STORMS ARE PROBABLE
WITHIN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD PEAK
THIS MORNING ALONG COASTAL DEEP S TX AND ON SAT NIGHT OVER A BROADER
PORTION OF S TX. WEAK SHEAR WILL INHIBIT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

..GRAMS.. 10/18/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 180503
SWODY2
SPC AC 180502

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM PARTS OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES...SOUTHWARD INTO
AREAS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO SONORA WHILE A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PARADE THROUGH A LARGER SCALE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
EXERT INFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND N-CNTRL STATES AS HEIGHT
FALLS OVERSPREAD THE PACIFIC NW STATES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SERN CO.  MEAGER
BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE CONUS.

..SMITH.. 10/18/2014





000
ACUS02 KWNS 180503
SWODY2
SPC AC 180502

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM PARTS OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES...SOUTHWARD INTO
AREAS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO SONORA WHILE A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PARADE THROUGH A LARGER SCALE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
EXERT INFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND N-CNTRL STATES AS HEIGHT
FALLS OVERSPREAD THE PACIFIC NW STATES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SERN CO.  MEAGER
BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES.  SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE CONUS.

..SMITH.. 10/18/2014






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