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000
WTNT41 KNHC 171457
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014

Edouard is maintaining two concentric rings as indicated in the
latest visible satellite images and recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft wind data.  Even though the central pressure is rather low,
958 mb, the pressure gradient is spread out over the large area
comprising the two rings, leading to a lower peak wind than a
typical cyclone would have. Flight-level and SFMR winds still
support an intensity of about 80 kt, which is unchanged from the
previous estimate.

Edouard is accelerating northeastward with a motion of 045/20 kt.
The hurricane is being steered by mid-latitude flow between the
subtropical ridge and a broad trough over the western Atlantic
Ocean.  This pattern should force Edouard to move faster toward the
east-northeast by late tonight, and eastward by late tomorrow.   In
a couple of days, Edouard (or its remnants) should turn southward
to the west of the Azores around a large trough over the eastern
Atlantic Ocean.  The track guidance remains tightly clustered for
the first 48 hours but continues to show some divergence during
the post-tropical phase.  The ECMWF has remained consistent on a
sharper southward turn, while the GFS is showing a more gradual
equatorward motion.  Because of the consistency of the ECMWF during
the past few runs, the latest NHC track is staying on the southwest
side of the model envelope at long range, roughly halfway between
the model consensus and the ECMWF.

Edouard is moving quickly toward the northeast and should pass over
waters cooler than 26C in less than 12 hours.  Only a gradual
weakening is shown during the first 24 hours due to cooler waters
and moderate shear.  All of the global models show a sharp increase
in shear after that time while the cyclone is moving over much
colder water.  Thus a more rapid weakening is shown beginning late
tomorrow, which is similar to a blend of the previous NHC forecast,
the Florida State Superensemble, and the intensity consensus.  The
cyclone is expected to become post-tropical in 2 or 3 days, which
is in good agreement with the global models.  Although Edouard is
expected to traverse warmer waters by the end of the forecast
period, strong northwesterly shear is anticipated to hinder any
redevelopment potential.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 36.4N  53.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 38.3N  49.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 39.8N  44.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 40.1N  40.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 39.7N  38.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 39.4N  35.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  21/1200Z 37.5N  33.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  22/1200Z 34.5N  33.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake





000
WTNT41 KNHC 171457
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014

Edouard is maintaining two concentric rings as indicated in the
latest visible satellite images and recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft wind data.  Even though the central pressure is rather low,
958 mb, the pressure gradient is spread out over the large area
comprising the two rings, leading to a lower peak wind than a
typical cyclone would have. Flight-level and SFMR winds still
support an intensity of about 80 kt, which is unchanged from the
previous estimate.

Edouard is accelerating northeastward with a motion of 045/20 kt.
The hurricane is being steered by mid-latitude flow between the
subtropical ridge and a broad trough over the western Atlantic
Ocean.  This pattern should force Edouard to move faster toward the
east-northeast by late tonight, and eastward by late tomorrow.   In
a couple of days, Edouard (or its remnants) should turn southward
to the west of the Azores around a large trough over the eastern
Atlantic Ocean.  The track guidance remains tightly clustered for
the first 48 hours but continues to show some divergence during
the post-tropical phase.  The ECMWF has remained consistent on a
sharper southward turn, while the GFS is showing a more gradual
equatorward motion.  Because of the consistency of the ECMWF during
the past few runs, the latest NHC track is staying on the southwest
side of the model envelope at long range, roughly halfway between
the model consensus and the ECMWF.

Edouard is moving quickly toward the northeast and should pass over
waters cooler than 26C in less than 12 hours.  Only a gradual
weakening is shown during the first 24 hours due to cooler waters
and moderate shear.  All of the global models show a sharp increase
in shear after that time while the cyclone is moving over much
colder water.  Thus a more rapid weakening is shown beginning late
tomorrow, which is similar to a blend of the previous NHC forecast,
the Florida State Superensemble, and the intensity consensus.  The
cyclone is expected to become post-tropical in 2 or 3 days, which
is in good agreement with the global models.  Although Edouard is
expected to traverse warmer waters by the end of the forecast
period, strong northwesterly shear is anticipated to hinder any
redevelopment potential.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 36.4N  53.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 38.3N  49.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 39.8N  44.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 40.1N  40.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 39.7N  38.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 39.4N  35.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  21/1200Z 37.5N  33.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  22/1200Z 34.5N  33.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake






000
WTPZ45 KNHC 171456
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

First-light visible and microwave satellite imagery, along with NOAA
Doppler radar data from Yuma and Tucson, suggest that the low-level
center of Odile is still over the northern Gulf of California while
the mid- and upper-level circulations are displaced well to the
northeast over northwestern Mexico. As a result, satellite intensity
estimates have been rapidly decreasing, and the initial intensity
estimate has been lowered to 35 kt. The combination of the low-level
blocking effect of the mountains of northwestern Mexico, plus
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and abundant dry air
ahead of the aforementioned trough noted in water vapor imagery, are
expected to induce continued weakening, and Odile could potentially
degenerate into a remnant low or dissipate as early as this
afternoon.

The initial motion estimate is now 035/05 kt.  A strong ridge
extending westward over Mexico, in conjunction with an approaching
mid-/upper-level trough to the west of Baja California, should keep
Odile moving toward the northeast over the next day or so. The
center of Odile or its remnants is expected to move slowly across
the northern Gulf of California today, and move into northwestern
Mexico and southern Arizona tonight and Thursday.  The new forecast
track is just an update of the previous track and lies near the
consensus model TVCE. Alternatively, the low-level circulation could
continue to separate from the circulation aloft and remain behind
over the Gulf of California.

The primary threat with Odile and its remnants will be heavy
rainfall due to the large plume of deep tropical moisture that will
continue to spread across northwestern Mexico and the southwestern
United States over the next couple of days.  These heavy rains will
likely cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas. Please see information from your local weather office for
more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 30.6N 113.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 31.5N 112.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/1200Z 32.7N 111.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart





000
WTPZ45 KNHC 171456
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

First-light visible and microwave satellite imagery, along with NOAA
Doppler radar data from Yuma and Tucson, suggest that the low-level
center of Odile is still over the northern Gulf of California while
the mid- and upper-level circulations are displaced well to the
northeast over northwestern Mexico. As a result, satellite intensity
estimates have been rapidly decreasing, and the initial intensity
estimate has been lowered to 35 kt. The combination of the low-level
blocking effect of the mountains of northwestern Mexico, plus
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and abundant dry air
ahead of the aforementioned trough noted in water vapor imagery, are
expected to induce continued weakening, and Odile could potentially
degenerate into a remnant low or dissipate as early as this
afternoon.

The initial motion estimate is now 035/05 kt.  A strong ridge
extending westward over Mexico, in conjunction with an approaching
mid-/upper-level trough to the west of Baja California, should keep
Odile moving toward the northeast over the next day or so. The
center of Odile or its remnants is expected to move slowly across
the northern Gulf of California today, and move into northwestern
Mexico and southern Arizona tonight and Thursday.  The new forecast
track is just an update of the previous track and lies near the
consensus model TVCE. Alternatively, the low-level circulation could
continue to separate from the circulation aloft and remain behind
over the Gulf of California.

The primary threat with Odile and its remnants will be heavy
rainfall due to the large plume of deep tropical moisture that will
continue to spread across northwestern Mexico and the southwestern
United States over the next couple of days.  These heavy rains will
likely cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas. Please see information from your local weather office for
more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 30.6N 113.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 31.5N 112.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/1200Z 32.7N 111.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart






000
WTPZ42 KNHC 171455
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

The cloud pattern has continued to become better organized, and
the center is now more embedded within the area of deep convection
as indicated by satellite. The initial intensity has been increased
to 50 kt based on estimates from TAFB and SAB. There is still
some shear over the cyclone, but not strong enough to halt
intensification, and Polo is forecast to become a hurricane in 24
hours or so. After an expected peak intensity in about 36 hours,
strong upper-level northeasterly winds should become established
over Polo, resulting is gradual weakening. This is the solution
provided by most of the guidance, and the NHC forecast follows
closely the intensity consensus ICON.

Polo is moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 9 knots,
steered by the flow around a mid-level ridge over northeastern
Mexico.  Beyond 48 hours, most of the global models build the
ridge westward forcing Polo to move on a west-northwesterly track.
The bulk of the guidance keeps the core of Polo well south
of the southern tip of Baja California peninsula, and so does the
NHC forecast.  This forecast is not very different from the previous
one, and is placed between the multi-model consensus TVCN, and
lies between the average of the GFS and the ECMWF models.

A small deviation to the north of the track could bring stronger
winds to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Consequently,
the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for a
portion of the coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 15.7N 102.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 16.6N 103.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 17.5N 105.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 18.1N 106.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 18.8N 107.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 20.0N 109.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 21.0N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 22.0N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila





000
WTPZ42 KNHC 171455
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

The cloud pattern has continued to become better organized, and
the center is now more embedded within the area of deep convection
as indicated by satellite. The initial intensity has been increased
to 50 kt based on estimates from TAFB and SAB. There is still
some shear over the cyclone, but not strong enough to halt
intensification, and Polo is forecast to become a hurricane in 24
hours or so. After an expected peak intensity in about 36 hours,
strong upper-level northeasterly winds should become established
over Polo, resulting is gradual weakening. This is the solution
provided by most of the guidance, and the NHC forecast follows
closely the intensity consensus ICON.

Polo is moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 9 knots,
steered by the flow around a mid-level ridge over northeastern
Mexico.  Beyond 48 hours, most of the global models build the
ridge westward forcing Polo to move on a west-northwesterly track.
The bulk of the guidance keeps the core of Polo well south
of the southern tip of Baja California peninsula, and so does the
NHC forecast.  This forecast is not very different from the previous
one, and is placed between the multi-model consensus TVCN, and
lies between the average of the GFS and the ECMWF models.

A small deviation to the north of the track could bring stronger
winds to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Consequently,
the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for a
portion of the coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 15.7N 102.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 16.6N 103.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 17.5N 105.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 18.1N 106.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 18.8N 107.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 20.0N 109.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 21.0N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 22.0N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila






000
WTPZ42 KNHC 170851
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

The overall organization of Polo has changed little in conventional
satellite imagery during the past few hours.  However, an earlier
SSMIS microwave overpass showed a low-level ring, which suggests
that the inner-core is becoming better defined.  The latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and UW/CIMSS still support an initial intensity
of 45 kt.  Recent satellite imagery shows that upper-level outflow
is becoming better established over Polo.  With the improved
inner-core structure and low shear forecast, steady strengthening is
expected during the next day or so.  The statistical guidance
predicts less intensification than previously, but this could be due
to the lack of strengthening during the past 6 hours and its affect
on the persistence factor in the SHIPS model. Therefore, the new NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one through 24 hours,
but shows a slightly lower peak to be in better agreement with the
intensity consensus.  In a couple of days, strong upper-level
easterly winds are expected to cause an increase in shear, which is
likely to halt further intensification. Weakening is expected later
in the period, due to the shear and the cyclone moving over
decreasing sea surface temperatures.

The initial motion estimate is 315/10 kt.  Polo is forecast to move
northwestward during the next few days around the southwestern
portion of a mid-level ridge over northeastern Mexico.  Later in
the period, the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward while
a ridge builds to its north.   Although the model guidance is in
general agreement on this scenario, there are large differences in
how sharp Polo turns west-northwestward.  The ECMWF and GFS show an
earlier west-northwestward turn and are along the southern edge of
the guidance envelope, meanwhile the UKMET and GFDL are on the
northern side.  For now, the NHC forecast lies near the latest
multi-model consensus, which is also similar to the previous NHC
forecast track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 14.8N 101.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 15.8N 102.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 16.9N 104.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 17.7N 105.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 18.5N 106.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  20/0600Z 19.9N 108.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  21/0600Z 21.1N 111.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  22/0600Z 22.0N 113.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown






000
WTPZ42 KNHC 170851
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

The overall organization of Polo has changed little in conventional
satellite imagery during the past few hours.  However, an earlier
SSMIS microwave overpass showed a low-level ring, which suggests
that the inner-core is becoming better defined.  The latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and UW/CIMSS still support an initial intensity
of 45 kt.  Recent satellite imagery shows that upper-level outflow
is becoming better established over Polo.  With the improved
inner-core structure and low shear forecast, steady strengthening is
expected during the next day or so.  The statistical guidance
predicts less intensification than previously, but this could be due
to the lack of strengthening during the past 6 hours and its affect
on the persistence factor in the SHIPS model. Therefore, the new NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one through 24 hours,
but shows a slightly lower peak to be in better agreement with the
intensity consensus.  In a couple of days, strong upper-level
easterly winds are expected to cause an increase in shear, which is
likely to halt further intensification. Weakening is expected later
in the period, due to the shear and the cyclone moving over
decreasing sea surface temperatures.

The initial motion estimate is 315/10 kt.  Polo is forecast to move
northwestward during the next few days around the southwestern
portion of a mid-level ridge over northeastern Mexico.  Later in
the period, the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward while
a ridge builds to its north.   Although the model guidance is in
general agreement on this scenario, there are large differences in
how sharp Polo turns west-northwestward.  The ECMWF and GFS show an
earlier west-northwestward turn and are along the southern edge of
the guidance envelope, meanwhile the UKMET and GFDL are on the
northern side.  For now, the NHC forecast lies near the latest
multi-model consensus, which is also similar to the previous NHC
forecast track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 14.8N 101.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 15.8N 102.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 16.9N 104.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 17.7N 105.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 18.5N 106.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  20/0600Z 19.9N 108.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  21/0600Z 21.1N 111.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  22/0600Z 22.0N 113.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown





000
WTNT41 KNHC 170849
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014

Edouard`s presentation on infrared satellite imagery has changed
very little during the past 6 hours, and recent microwave images
indicate that the hurricane still has two well-defined low-level
concentric rings.  A dropsonde released into the southeastern
eyewall just after 0600 UTC during a NASA Global Hawk mission
measured an average wind of 90 kt in the lowest 150 meters, which
equates to an intensity of about 75 kt.  Edouard`s initial
intensity is being held at 80 kt under the assumption that the
dropsondes did not sample the maximum winds in the eyewall.
Two dropsondes within the eye measured surface pressures of 960 and
961 mb with some wind, supporting the previous estimated storm
pressure of 959 mb.

Edouard is likely to reach water colder than 26C in about 12
hours or so.  Just as the hurricane reaches the colder water,
vertical shear is expected to increase, and the SHIPS guidance shows
westerly shear of 35 kt in about 48 hours.  With the environment
becoming so hostile, the hurricane is forecast to gradually weaken
during the next 24 hours and then more rapidly lose strength after
that.  The global models continue to show Edouard remaining separate
from nearby frontal zones and not benefiting from baroclinic
support, so the cyclone is likely to become a decaying post-tropical
low by day 3, if not sooner.

Edouard is accelerating northeastward with a motion of 035/17 kt.
The hurricane is becoming partially embedded in faster mid-latitude
westerly flow, and it is expected to continue accelerating for the
next 24 hours or so.  However, the cyclone is forecast to stay
south of the polar jet, and by 48 hours it will turn eastward and
slow down as it moves around a mid-level ridge axis.  Toward the
end of the forecast period, the remnant low should turn southward
before it reaches the main islands of the Azores.  The track
guidance remains tightly clustered for the first 48 hours but then
shows some divergence during the post-tropical phase, with the
ECMWF and HWRF showing the sharpest southward turn.  The updated NHC
track is very close to the multi-model consensus TVCA and not too
far from the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 35.1N  55.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 37.2N  52.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 39.3N  47.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 40.3N  42.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 40.3N  39.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  20/0600Z 40.1N  36.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  21/0600Z 38.5N  33.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  22/0600Z 35.5N  32.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg






000
WTNT41 KNHC 170849
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014

Edouard`s presentation on infrared satellite imagery has changed
very little during the past 6 hours, and recent microwave images
indicate that the hurricane still has two well-defined low-level
concentric rings.  A dropsonde released into the southeastern
eyewall just after 0600 UTC during a NASA Global Hawk mission
measured an average wind of 90 kt in the lowest 150 meters, which
equates to an intensity of about 75 kt.  Edouard`s initial
intensity is being held at 80 kt under the assumption that the
dropsondes did not sample the maximum winds in the eyewall.
Two dropsondes within the eye measured surface pressures of 960 and
961 mb with some wind, supporting the previous estimated storm
pressure of 959 mb.

Edouard is likely to reach water colder than 26C in about 12
hours or so.  Just as the hurricane reaches the colder water,
vertical shear is expected to increase, and the SHIPS guidance shows
westerly shear of 35 kt in about 48 hours.  With the environment
becoming so hostile, the hurricane is forecast to gradually weaken
during the next 24 hours and then more rapidly lose strength after
that.  The global models continue to show Edouard remaining separate
from nearby frontal zones and not benefiting from baroclinic
support, so the cyclone is likely to become a decaying post-tropical
low by day 3, if not sooner.

Edouard is accelerating northeastward with a motion of 035/17 kt.
The hurricane is becoming partially embedded in faster mid-latitude
westerly flow, and it is expected to continue accelerating for the
next 24 hours or so.  However, the cyclone is forecast to stay
south of the polar jet, and by 48 hours it will turn eastward and
slow down as it moves around a mid-level ridge axis.  Toward the
end of the forecast period, the remnant low should turn southward
before it reaches the main islands of the Azores.  The track
guidance remains tightly clustered for the first 48 hours but then
shows some divergence during the post-tropical phase, with the
ECMWF and HWRF showing the sharpest southward turn.  The updated NHC
track is very close to the multi-model consensus TVCA and not too
far from the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 35.1N  55.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 37.2N  52.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 39.3N  47.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 40.3N  42.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 40.3N  39.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  20/0600Z 40.1N  36.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  21/0600Z 38.5N  33.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  22/0600Z 35.5N  32.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg





000
WTPZ45 KNHC 170849
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

The center of Odile is currently crossing the northern Gulf of
California, with satellite imagery and radar data from the Yuma,
Arizona, WSR-88D indicating that most of the associated convection
is now occurring in the northeastern semicircle.  This is likely due
to a combination of 15-20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear
and land interaction.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB are 45 kt, and that remains the initial intensity.  Little
change in strength is likely before landfall in northwestern Mexico
later today.  Rapid weakening should occur after landfall, with
Odile expected to decay to a remnant low by 36 hours and completely
dissipate shortly thereafter.

The initial motion is now 015/5.  A mid-level ridge extending from
southern Texas westward over Mexico should cause a gradual turn
toward the northeast over the next day or so, with the center of
Odile expected to move slowly across the northern Gulf of
California, northwestern Mexico, and southern Arizona before
dissipation.  The new forecast track is an update of the previous
track and lies near the center of the guidance envelope.

A large area of moisture associated with Odile is crossing
northwestern Mexico into the southwestern United States.  This,
along with the slow motion of the system, will likely result in
locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the
southwestern United States.  Please see information from your local
weather office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 30.1N 113.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 30.9N 112.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/0600Z 32.2N 111.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/1800Z 33.5N 110.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven





000
WTPZ45 KNHC 170849
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

The center of Odile is currently crossing the northern Gulf of
California, with satellite imagery and radar data from the Yuma,
Arizona, WSR-88D indicating that most of the associated convection
is now occurring in the northeastern semicircle.  This is likely due
to a combination of 15-20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear
and land interaction.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB are 45 kt, and that remains the initial intensity.  Little
change in strength is likely before landfall in northwestern Mexico
later today.  Rapid weakening should occur after landfall, with
Odile expected to decay to a remnant low by 36 hours and completely
dissipate shortly thereafter.

The initial motion is now 015/5.  A mid-level ridge extending from
southern Texas westward over Mexico should cause a gradual turn
toward the northeast over the next day or so, with the center of
Odile expected to move slowly across the northern Gulf of
California, northwestern Mexico, and southern Arizona before
dissipation.  The new forecast track is an update of the previous
track and lies near the center of the guidance envelope.

A large area of moisture associated with Odile is crossing
northwestern Mexico into the southwestern United States.  This,
along with the slow motion of the system, will likely result in
locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the
southwestern United States.  Please see information from your local
weather office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 30.1N 113.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 30.9N 112.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/0600Z 32.2N 111.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/1800Z 33.5N 110.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven






000
WTNT41 KNHC 170243
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

A 2145 UTC WindSat 37 GHZ composite image revealed two concentric
rings, with both the inner and outer rings containing hurricane
force winds as observed by a NOAA P-3 aircraft.  Therefore, the 64-
kt wind radii have been adjusted outward to 70 n mi over the
southeast and southwest quadrants.  Additionally, an earlier lower
fuselage radar image from the NOAA P-3 indicated that the highest
reflectivity DBZ values occurred in these quadrants. The initial
intensity is lowered to 80 kt for this advisory and is a compromise
of the highest SFMR-observed surface wind of 73 kt, a peak
flight-level wind of 81 kt, and a blend of Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Gradual weakening is expected through the forecast period as the
cyclone quickly moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and
within increasing westerly shear. The intensity forecast is
basically an update of the previous package and closely resembles
the IVCN intensity consensus. Edouard should lose its tropical
characteristics and become a post-tropical cyclone in 3 days, or
less, due to the aforementioned cooler water and vertical shear.
Through the remainder of the forecast, the large-scale models all
agree upon Edouard becoming absorbed within an extensive
mid-latitude baroclinic zone.

The current motion of the cyclone is estimated to be northeastward,
or 035/15.  Edouard will continue to accelerate northeastward to
east-northeastward during the next 36 hours within the
mid-tropospheric flow on the northwestern and northern side of a
mid-Atlantic high pressure area. Afterward, an eastward motion
is expected with further acceleration.  A rather abrupt reduction in
forward speed with a turn toward the east-southeast is expected as
Edouard rounds the western periphery of a large baroclinic low
situated to the west of the Iberian peninsula.  The official NHC
forecast is nudged just a bit to the right of the previous forecast
track at days 4 and 5, and is close to the TVCA multi-model
consensus and the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program
(HFIP)/National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)
project 133 member multi-model ensemble.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 33.5N  56.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 35.7N  54.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 38.4N  49.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 40.2N  44.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 40.5N  40.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 40.0N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  21/0000Z 38.5N  33.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  22/0000Z 35.5N  31.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Roberts






000
WTNT41 KNHC 170243
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

A 2145 UTC WindSat 37 GHZ composite image revealed two concentric
rings, with both the inner and outer rings containing hurricane
force winds as observed by a NOAA P-3 aircraft.  Therefore, the 64-
kt wind radii have been adjusted outward to 70 n mi over the
southeast and southwest quadrants.  Additionally, an earlier lower
fuselage radar image from the NOAA P-3 indicated that the highest
reflectivity DBZ values occurred in these quadrants. The initial
intensity is lowered to 80 kt for this advisory and is a compromise
of the highest SFMR-observed surface wind of 73 kt, a peak
flight-level wind of 81 kt, and a blend of Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Gradual weakening is expected through the forecast period as the
cyclone quickly moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and
within increasing westerly shear. The intensity forecast is
basically an update of the previous package and closely resembles
the IVCN intensity consensus. Edouard should lose its tropical
characteristics and become a post-tropical cyclone in 3 days, or
less, due to the aforementioned cooler water and vertical shear.
Through the remainder of the forecast, the large-scale models all
agree upon Edouard becoming absorbed within an extensive
mid-latitude baroclinic zone.

The current motion of the cyclone is estimated to be northeastward,
or 035/15.  Edouard will continue to accelerate northeastward to
east-northeastward during the next 36 hours within the
mid-tropospheric flow on the northwestern and northern side of a
mid-Atlantic high pressure area. Afterward, an eastward motion
is expected with further acceleration.  A rather abrupt reduction in
forward speed with a turn toward the east-southeast is expected as
Edouard rounds the western periphery of a large baroclinic low
situated to the west of the Iberian peninsula.  The official NHC
forecast is nudged just a bit to the right of the previous forecast
track at days 4 and 5, and is close to the TVCA multi-model
consensus and the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program
(HFIP)/National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)
project 133 member multi-model ensemble.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 33.5N  56.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 35.7N  54.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 38.4N  49.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 40.2N  44.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 40.5N  40.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 40.0N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  21/0000Z 38.5N  33.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  22/0000Z 35.5N  31.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Roberts





000
WTPZ45 KNHC 170238
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Satellite images show that Odile is maintaining its organization for
now, although most of the deepest convection is confined to the
northeastern quadrant of the circulation.  Since the center of
circulation appears to be over the waters of the Gulf of California,
it is assumed that the winds have not decreased and the intensity
estimate remains 45 kt.  No significant change in strength is
anticipated until the center crosses the coast of northwestern
mainland Mexico on Wednesday.  After that occurs, weakening should
be rapid and the system will likely degenerate into a weak remnant
low in 24-36 hours, and lose its identity by 48 hours.  The official
wind speed forecast is similar to the previous one.

Based on geostationary and microwave imagery, the motion continues
to be northward or about 360/6 kt.  A mid-level ridge extending from
southern Texas westward over Mexico should cause a gradual turn
toward the north-northeast over the next day or so.  The official
track forecast is very similar to that from the previous advisory,
and is also very close to the latest dynamical model consensus,
TVCE.

Moisture is being advected northward by Odile`s circulation, and the
moisture associated with Odile or its remnant low will likely be
crossing the United States/Mexico border within 24 hours.  This,
along with the slow motion of the system, will likely result in
locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the
southwestern United States.  Please see information from your local
weather office for more details.

In addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the
northern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San
Felipe, Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing
trapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf
of California.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 29.7N 113.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 30.4N 113.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 31.5N 112.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/1200Z 32.8N 111.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch





000
WTPZ45 KNHC 170238
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Satellite images show that Odile is maintaining its organization for
now, although most of the deepest convection is confined to the
northeastern quadrant of the circulation.  Since the center of
circulation appears to be over the waters of the Gulf of California,
it is assumed that the winds have not decreased and the intensity
estimate remains 45 kt.  No significant change in strength is
anticipated until the center crosses the coast of northwestern
mainland Mexico on Wednesday.  After that occurs, weakening should
be rapid and the system will likely degenerate into a weak remnant
low in 24-36 hours, and lose its identity by 48 hours.  The official
wind speed forecast is similar to the previous one.

Based on geostationary and microwave imagery, the motion continues
to be northward or about 360/6 kt.  A mid-level ridge extending from
southern Texas westward over Mexico should cause a gradual turn
toward the north-northeast over the next day or so.  The official
track forecast is very similar to that from the previous advisory,
and is also very close to the latest dynamical model consensus,
TVCE.

Moisture is being advected northward by Odile`s circulation, and the
moisture associated with Odile or its remnant low will likely be
crossing the United States/Mexico border within 24 hours.  This,
along with the slow motion of the system, will likely result in
locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the
southwestern United States.  Please see information from your local
weather office for more details.

In addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the
northern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San
Felipe, Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing
trapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf
of California.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 29.7N 113.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 30.4N 113.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 31.5N 112.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/1200Z 32.8N 111.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch






000
WTPZ42 KNHC 170237
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Polo continues to gradually become better organized. The center is
located on the northern edge of an area of deep convection, and a
curved convective band has become better established in the western
semicircle. The initial intensity has been set to 45 kt based on
the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The SHIPS model shows the
shear decreasing below 10 kt during the next 24 hours, which in
combination with very warm SSTs above 29C should allow for
intensification in the short term. In fact, the SHIPS RI index
shows a 66 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in the next 24 hours.
The official forecast has been adjusted upward in the short range,
and shows Polo becoming a hurricane by 24 hours. Easterly shear is
forecast to increase after that time, which should slow the pace
of strengthening. By the end of the period Polo will be moving over
cooler waters in a moderate shear environment, and gradual weakening
is expected. The new NHC intensity forecast is a a little above the
latest IVCN intensity consensus and is close to the SHIPS model
through the period.

A pair of timely SSMIS passes around 00 UTC were helpful in
establishing the initial position and the initial motion of 310/10.
The tropical cyclone will be steered northwestward for the next
several days by a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. By
day 5, the cyclone should turn toward the west as the ridge builds
westward to its north. The new NHC track is a little left of the
previous one through 24 hours due to the initial position and
motion, but is otherwise an update of the previous track. Through
the period, the official forecast is close to the TVCE multi-model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 13.8N 101.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 14.9N 102.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 16.2N 103.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 17.2N 105.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 18.2N 106.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 19.7N 108.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  21/0000Z 21.3N 111.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  22/0000Z 22.0N 113.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan





000
WTPZ42 KNHC 170237
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Polo continues to gradually become better organized. The center is
located on the northern edge of an area of deep convection, and a
curved convective band has become better established in the western
semicircle. The initial intensity has been set to 45 kt based on
the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The SHIPS model shows the
shear decreasing below 10 kt during the next 24 hours, which in
combination with very warm SSTs above 29C should allow for
intensification in the short term. In fact, the SHIPS RI index
shows a 66 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in the next 24 hours.
The official forecast has been adjusted upward in the short range,
and shows Polo becoming a hurricane by 24 hours. Easterly shear is
forecast to increase after that time, which should slow the pace
of strengthening. By the end of the period Polo will be moving over
cooler waters in a moderate shear environment, and gradual weakening
is expected. The new NHC intensity forecast is a a little above the
latest IVCN intensity consensus and is close to the SHIPS model
through the period.

A pair of timely SSMIS passes around 00 UTC were helpful in
establishing the initial position and the initial motion of 310/10.
The tropical cyclone will be steered northwestward for the next
several days by a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. By
day 5, the cyclone should turn toward the west as the ridge builds
westward to its north. The new NHC track is a little left of the
previous one through 24 hours due to the initial position and
motion, but is otherwise an update of the previous track. Through
the period, the official forecast is close to the TVCE multi-model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 13.8N 101.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 14.9N 102.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 16.2N 103.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 17.2N 105.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 18.2N 106.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 19.7N 108.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  21/0000Z 21.3N 111.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  22/0000Z 22.0N 113.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan






000
WTNT41 KNHC 162057
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

Microwave and NOAA Hurricane Hunter radar data suggest that Edouard
has begun an eyewall cycle, with a pair of concentric rings seen in
a 1605 UTC GCOM microwave image.  The last few passes from the
aircraft had a maximum flight-level wind of 93 kt, with 85 kt from
the SFMR observed a few hours ago.  These data suggest an initial
wind speed of 90 kt for this advisory.  Since the hurricane has less
than 24 hours over warm water, it is not expected to complete its
eyewall cycle, and will probably slowly weaken.  After that time,
Edouard should continue to lose strength when it moves over much
cooler water and into higher shear.  The NHC forecast is lower than
the previous one, below most of the guidance for the first day in
consideration of the current structure, then is blended with the
intensity consensus after that time. The cyclone is expected to
become post-tropical in the day 3 or 4 time frame, and become
extratropical by day 5 since most of the global models show it
developing frontal features by that time.

Edouard has turned toward the north and is moving a little
faster at about 13 kt.  The hurricane will move northeastward into
the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24-36 hours while it
moves on the northwest side of the subtropical high.  An eastward
acceleration is expected by 48 hours, and the cyclone is still
forecast to turn southeastward and slow down on days 4 and 5 when it
moves around a trough over the eastern Atlantic.  Model guidance is
in much better agreement than the last cycle and the official
forecast is very close to the previous one, near the model
consensus and the ECMWF model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 32.3N  57.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 34.3N  56.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 37.2N  52.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 39.7N  47.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 40.9N  42.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 40.2N  37.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 39.4N  34.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  21/1800Z 36.0N  33.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake






000
WTNT41 KNHC 162057
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

Microwave and NOAA Hurricane Hunter radar data suggest that Edouard
has begun an eyewall cycle, with a pair of concentric rings seen in
a 1605 UTC GCOM microwave image.  The last few passes from the
aircraft had a maximum flight-level wind of 93 kt, with 85 kt from
the SFMR observed a few hours ago.  These data suggest an initial
wind speed of 90 kt for this advisory.  Since the hurricane has less
than 24 hours over warm water, it is not expected to complete its
eyewall cycle, and will probably slowly weaken.  After that time,
Edouard should continue to lose strength when it moves over much
cooler water and into higher shear.  The NHC forecast is lower than
the previous one, below most of the guidance for the first day in
consideration of the current structure, then is blended with the
intensity consensus after that time. The cyclone is expected to
become post-tropical in the day 3 or 4 time frame, and become
extratropical by day 5 since most of the global models show it
developing frontal features by that time.

Edouard has turned toward the north and is moving a little
faster at about 13 kt.  The hurricane will move northeastward into
the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24-36 hours while it
moves on the northwest side of the subtropical high.  An eastward
acceleration is expected by 48 hours, and the cyclone is still
forecast to turn southeastward and slow down on days 4 and 5 when it
moves around a trough over the eastern Atlantic.  Model guidance is
in much better agreement than the last cycle and the official
forecast is very close to the previous one, near the model
consensus and the ECMWF model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 32.3N  57.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 34.3N  56.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 37.2N  52.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 39.7N  47.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 40.9N  42.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 40.2N  37.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 39.4N  34.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  21/1800Z 36.0N  33.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake





000
WTPZ45 KNHC 162049
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

The convective cloud pattern of Odile has stabilized during the
past 6 hours, due in part to the center moving closer to the very
warm waters of the Gulf of California. Visible and microwave
satellite imagery, along with surface observations from Bahia de
Los Angeles, Mexico indicate that the low-level circulation center
is located just inland along the east-central coast of the Baja
California peninsula very near Bahia de Los Angeles. A 1642 UTC
ASCAT-B partial overpass showed one 44-kt vector and two 42-kt
vectors in the southeastern quadrant, so the advisory intensity is
set to 45 kt. The same wind data were used to adjust the 34-kt wind
radii over the Gulf of California and to remove the tropical storm
warning along the west coast of Baja California.

The initial motion estimate is 360/06 kt. Odile appears to now be
moving northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge
that is situated over mainland Mexico. The cyclone should emerge
over the Gulf of California later this evening, turn toward the
northeast on Wednesday, and move inland over northwestern
Mexico by Wednesday evening. The NHC model guidance remains tightly
clustered, and the new forecast track is just an extension of the
previous advisory and closely follows the consensus model TVCE.
Remnant low positions at 36 and 48 hours have been provided
for continuity purposes and to assist with rainfall forecasts.

As Odile moves across 31C SSTs of the northern Gulf of California,
little change in intensity is expected. By 24 hours and beyond,
rapid weakening is expected as the cyclone moves inland over the
rugged terrain of northwestern Mexico. The system is expected to
dissipate by 72 hours, if not sooner.

Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile`s circulation
over the next few days.  This, along with the slow motion of Odile
or its remnant low, will likely result in locally heavy rains and
possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States.
Please see information from your local weather office for more
details.

In addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the
northern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San
Felipe Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing
trapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf
of California.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 29.1N 113.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 12H  17/0600Z 29.9N 113.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  17/1800Z 31.0N 112.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND NWRN MEXICO
 36H  18/0600Z 32.1N 112.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1800Z 33.2N 111.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart





000
WTPZ45 KNHC 162049
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

The convective cloud pattern of Odile has stabilized during the
past 6 hours, due in part to the center moving closer to the very
warm waters of the Gulf of California. Visible and microwave
satellite imagery, along with surface observations from Bahia de
Los Angeles, Mexico indicate that the low-level circulation center
is located just inland along the east-central coast of the Baja
California peninsula very near Bahia de Los Angeles. A 1642 UTC
ASCAT-B partial overpass showed one 44-kt vector and two 42-kt
vectors in the southeastern quadrant, so the advisory intensity is
set to 45 kt. The same wind data were used to adjust the 34-kt wind
radii over the Gulf of California and to remove the tropical storm
warning along the west coast of Baja California.

The initial motion estimate is 360/06 kt. Odile appears to now be
moving northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge
that is situated over mainland Mexico. The cyclone should emerge
over the Gulf of California later this evening, turn toward the
northeast on Wednesday, and move inland over northwestern
Mexico by Wednesday evening. The NHC model guidance remains tightly
clustered, and the new forecast track is just an extension of the
previous advisory and closely follows the consensus model TVCE.
Remnant low positions at 36 and 48 hours have been provided
for continuity purposes and to assist with rainfall forecasts.

As Odile moves across 31C SSTs of the northern Gulf of California,
little change in intensity is expected. By 24 hours and beyond,
rapid weakening is expected as the cyclone moves inland over the
rugged terrain of northwestern Mexico. The system is expected to
dissipate by 72 hours, if not sooner.

Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile`s circulation
over the next few days.  This, along with the slow motion of Odile
or its remnant low, will likely result in locally heavy rains and
possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States.
Please see information from your local weather office for more
details.

In addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the
northern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San
Felipe Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing
trapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf
of California.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 29.1N 113.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 12H  17/0600Z 29.9N 113.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  17/1800Z 31.0N 112.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND NWRN MEXICO
 36H  18/0600Z 32.1N 112.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1800Z 33.2N 111.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart






000
WTPZ42 KNHC 162034
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

The cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized, with very
well defined cyclonically curved convective bands wrapping around a
small central dense overcast. An ASCAT-B pass over the cyclone
a few hours ago yields an initial intensity of 40 kt. The ocean is
plenty warm south of Mexico, and the shear is expected to decrease
during the next day or two. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls
for strengthening, making Polo a hurricane in about 36 hours, in
good agreement with the model consensus ICON. After 48 hours, most
of the guidance shows an increase in shear and no additional
development is anticipated, and in fact, some gradual weakening
should then begin.

Polo is moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at about 10
kt, steered by the flow around a mid-level ridge over the
southwestern United States and northern Mexico. This ridge will
continue to steer Polo on a track parallel to and not too far from
the southwest coast of Mexico, and take the cyclone well south
of the Baja California peninsula. The ECMWF model, which
previously brought the cyclone closer to Mexico, has changed its
tune, and now keeps the cyclone offshore like the solution of the
GFS. This is reflected in a southward shift in the multi-model
consensus TVCN, which is very close to the NHC forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 13.2N 100.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 14.2N 101.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 16.8N 104.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 17.8N 106.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 19.5N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 21.0N 110.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 22.5N 113.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila






000
WTPZ45 KNHC 161458
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

The convective cloud pattern of Odile has become ragged looking
since the previous advisory, accompanied by significant warming of
the cloud tops. The low-level circulation is still inland near
the east-central coast of the Baja California peninsula with the
mid- to upper-level circulations tilted to the northeast over the
Gulf of California. The initial intensity of 50 kt is based on
inland decay models and an earlier ASCAT overpass.

The initial motion estimate is 340/08 kt. Odile should move
northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge
and later move over the Gulf of California later today, and turn
toward the northeast on Wednesday and move inland over northwestern
Mexico. The NHC model guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario, and the new forecast track is just an update of the
previous advisory. A 48-hour remnant low position has been provided
for continuity purposes and to assist with rainfall forecasts.

Odile will be moving across very warm waters of near 31C over the
northern Gulf of California in the 12-24 hour period, which is
expected to briefly slow the weakening process. In fact, the SHIPS
and LGEM intensity models actually show some slight restrengthening
in 24 hours.  By 36 and 48 hours, Odile is forecast to rapidly
degenerate to a remnant low inland over northwestern Mexico, with
dissipation expected by 72 hours, if not sooner.

Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile`s circulation
over the next few days.  This, along with the slow motion of Odile
or its remnant low, will likely result in locally heavy rains and
possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States.
Please see information from your local weather office for more
details.

In addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the
northern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San
Felipe Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing
trapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf
of California.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 28.4N 113.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 12H  17/0000Z 29.2N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 30.2N 113.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 31.2N 112.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1200Z 32.3N 111.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart






000
WTPZ45 KNHC 161458
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

The convective cloud pattern of Odile has become ragged looking
since the previous advisory, accompanied by significant warming of
the cloud tops. The low-level circulation is still inland near
the east-central coast of the Baja California peninsula with the
mid- to upper-level circulations tilted to the northeast over the
Gulf of California. The initial intensity of 50 kt is based on
inland decay models and an earlier ASCAT overpass.

The initial motion estimate is 340/08 kt. Odile should move
northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge
and later move over the Gulf of California later today, and turn
toward the northeast on Wednesday and move inland over northwestern
Mexico. The NHC model guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario, and the new forecast track is just an update of the
previous advisory. A 48-hour remnant low position has been provided
for continuity purposes and to assist with rainfall forecasts.

Odile will be moving across very warm waters of near 31C over the
northern Gulf of California in the 12-24 hour period, which is
expected to briefly slow the weakening process. In fact, the SHIPS
and LGEM intensity models actually show some slight restrengthening
in 24 hours.  By 36 and 48 hours, Odile is forecast to rapidly
degenerate to a remnant low inland over northwestern Mexico, with
dissipation expected by 72 hours, if not sooner.

Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile`s circulation
over the next few days.  This, along with the slow motion of Odile
or its remnant low, will likely result in locally heavy rains and
possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States.
Please see information from your local weather office for more
details.

In addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the
northern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San
Felipe Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing
trapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf
of California.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 28.4N 113.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 12H  17/0000Z 29.2N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 30.2N 113.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 31.2N 112.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1200Z 32.3N 111.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart





000
WTPZ42 KNHC 161457
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Microwave data earlier today indicated that the center of
Polo was to the north of the main convection due to moderate
northeasterly shear.  Since that time, the thunderstorm
activity has increased near the center despite the shear, but
the cloud pattern is still somewhat disrupted. Dvorak intensity
numbers support an initial intensity of 35 kt. The ocean is plenty
warm in that area, and with the shear expected to decrease, the NHC
forecast calls for strengthening, making Polo a hurricane in about
48 hours.  This is in good agreement with the intensity consensus
ICON.

Polo is moving toward the northwest or 310 degrees at about 10
kt. The flow around a mid-level ridge over the southwestern
United States and northern Mexico is controlling the track of
Polo. This ridge is forecast to persist, keeping Polo on a general
northwestward track for the next 3 to 4 days. The ECMWF
model forecasts the ridge to weaken faster than the GFS, bringing
the center of the storm closer to the coast. At this time, the NHC
forecast follows the multi-model consensus TVCN, and the average
track between the GFS and the ECMWF, keeping Polo on a track
parallel to the southwest coast of Mexico. Polo is expected to turn
to the west by the end of the forecast period as a ridge to the
north rebuilds.

The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for a
portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico from Zihuatanejo to
Cabo Corrientes.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 12.8N  99.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 13.8N 100.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 15.0N 102.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 16.3N 103.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 17.5N 105.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 19.5N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 21.0N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  21/1200Z 22.0N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila






000
WTPZ42 KNHC 161457
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Microwave data earlier today indicated that the center of
Polo was to the north of the main convection due to moderate
northeasterly shear.  Since that time, the thunderstorm
activity has increased near the center despite the shear, but
the cloud pattern is still somewhat disrupted. Dvorak intensity
numbers support an initial intensity of 35 kt. The ocean is plenty
warm in that area, and with the shear expected to decrease, the NHC
forecast calls for strengthening, making Polo a hurricane in about
48 hours.  This is in good agreement with the intensity consensus
ICON.

Polo is moving toward the northwest or 310 degrees at about 10
kt. The flow around a mid-level ridge over the southwestern
United States and northern Mexico is controlling the track of
Polo. This ridge is forecast to persist, keeping Polo on a general
northwestward track for the next 3 to 4 days. The ECMWF
model forecasts the ridge to weaken faster than the GFS, bringing
the center of the storm closer to the coast. At this time, the NHC
forecast follows the multi-model consensus TVCN, and the average
track between the GFS and the ECMWF, keeping Polo on a track
parallel to the southwest coast of Mexico. Polo is expected to turn
to the west by the end of the forecast period as a ridge to the
north rebuilds.

The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for a
portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico from Zihuatanejo to
Cabo Corrientes.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 12.8N  99.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 13.8N 100.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 15.0N 102.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 16.3N 103.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 17.5N 105.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 19.5N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 21.0N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  21/1200Z 22.0N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila





000
WTNT41 KNHC 161447
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

Visible satellite images show that Edouard has an impressive
satellite presentation, displaying a well-defined eye within the
central dense overcast.  Edouard is upgraded to a major
hurricane based on a subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of 102 kt
from TAFB, an ADT estimate of 107 kt, and a recent SFMR surface
wind of 97 kt in the southwest eyewall.  Edouard is the first major
hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, and the
first category 3 or greater hurricane in the basin since Sandy on
October 25, 2012.

Edouard is expected to reach its peak intensity within the next
12-18 hours while it remains in light shear conditions and over warm
waters.  A combination of decreasing SSTs and increasing shear
should cause the hurricane to start a steady weakening by late
tomorrow.  The intensity guidance is in good agreement, and the
latest NHC forecast is close to the previous NHC prediction and the
intensity consensus.  Edouard is expected to become post-tropical by
day 4, but this transition could even occur around day 3 due to
rather cool waters in the cyclone`s path.

The initial motion is gradually shifting to the right, now 345/11.
Edouard remains located to the west of the subtropical high and will
turn northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies
during the next 24-36 hours.   An eastward acceleration is expected
by 48 hours, and the cyclone is forecast to turn southeastward and
slow down on days 4 and 5 when it approaches the west side of a
deep-layer low between Portugal and the Azores.  The interaction of
the low and the tropical cyclone is causing the model guidance to
become more divergent at long range, with the GFS and the GFDL
models taking the cyclone well north of the Azores.  However,
the GFS ensemble is much farther southwest than the deterministic
GFS, and is much more consistent with the previous forecast and the
bulk of the guidance.  Thus, I have elected to leave the NHC
prediction virtually unchanged from the previous one, even though
the model consensus is a fair distance to the northeast of the new
official track at long range.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 31.1N  57.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 33.0N  57.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 35.7N  54.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 38.4N  50.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 40.3N  45.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 41.0N  38.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 40.0N  35.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  21/1200Z 38.0N  32.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake






000
WTNT41 KNHC 161447
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

Visible satellite images show that Edouard has an impressive
satellite presentation, displaying a well-defined eye within the
central dense overcast.  Edouard is upgraded to a major
hurricane based on a subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of 102 kt
from TAFB, an ADT estimate of 107 kt, and a recent SFMR surface
wind of 97 kt in the southwest eyewall.  Edouard is the first major
hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, and the
first category 3 or greater hurricane in the basin since Sandy on
October 25, 2012.

Edouard is expected to reach its peak intensity within the next
12-18 hours while it remains in light shear conditions and over warm
waters.  A combination of decreasing SSTs and increasing shear
should cause the hurricane to start a steady weakening by late
tomorrow.  The intensity guidance is in good agreement, and the
latest NHC forecast is close to the previous NHC prediction and the
intensity consensus.  Edouard is expected to become post-tropical by
day 4, but this transition could even occur around day 3 due to
rather cool waters in the cyclone`s path.

The initial motion is gradually shifting to the right, now 345/11.
Edouard remains located to the west of the subtropical high and will
turn northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies
during the next 24-36 hours.   An eastward acceleration is expected
by 48 hours, and the cyclone is forecast to turn southeastward and
slow down on days 4 and 5 when it approaches the west side of a
deep-layer low between Portugal and the Azores.  The interaction of
the low and the tropical cyclone is causing the model guidance to
become more divergent at long range, with the GFS and the GFDL
models taking the cyclone well north of the Azores.  However,
the GFS ensemble is much farther southwest than the deterministic
GFS, and is much more consistent with the previous forecast and the
bulk of the guidance.  Thus, I have elected to leave the NHC
prediction virtually unchanged from the previous one, even though
the model consensus is a fair distance to the northeast of the new
official track at long range.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 31.1N  57.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 33.0N  57.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 35.7N  54.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 38.4N  50.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 40.3N  45.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 41.0N  38.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 40.0N  35.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  21/1200Z 38.0N  32.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake





000
WTPZ42 KNHC 160909
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Scatterometer data from earlier this evening indicated that the
circulation of the low pressure area south of Mexico has become
better defined.  The ASCAT data showed several 35-kt wind vectors
over the southeastern portion of the circulation.  In addition, a
ship about 50 n mi south-southeast of the center reported winds to
near 30 kt, which was in good agreement with the ASCAT data.
Based on these data and the increase in organization of the
convection overnight, advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Storm Polo.  Polo becomes the sixteenth tropical storm in the
eastern Pacific basin this season.

The center of the tropical storm is located near the northeastern
edge of the deep convection due to about 15 to 20 kt of
northeasterly shear.  The shear is forecast to decrease somewhat
during the next couple of days, which should allow for gradual
strengthening.  After 72 hours, the global models suggest that
upper-level easterly winds could increase resulting in increasing
shear.  As a result, the NHC forecast shows little change in
strength late in the forecast period.  The NHC forecast is a little
below the statistical guidance and is close to the intensity
consensus, ICON.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/8 kt.  Polo is
forecast to turn northwestward today and continue in that
general direction during the next couple days while it moves around
the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over the northern Gulf
of Mexico.  Although the global models generally agree on this
scenario, there are differences in how close Polo moves to the
southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days.  The ECMWF takes
Polo inland while most of the remainder of the guidance keeps the
tropical storm offshore.  The NHC forecast is near the middle of
the guidance envelope during the first 2 to 3 days.  After that
time, a building ridge over northern Mexico should turn the cyclone
west-northwestward.  Confidence in the track forecast, especially
late in the forecast period, is lower than normal.

Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Polo.  A tropical storm watch may be required for a
portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 11.9N  98.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 12.8N  99.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 14.1N 101.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 15.5N 102.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 16.9N 104.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 18.8N 107.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  20/0600Z 19.7N 108.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  21/0600Z 20.5N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown





000
WTPZ42 KNHC 160909
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Scatterometer data from earlier this evening indicated that the
circulation of the low pressure area south of Mexico has become
better defined.  The ASCAT data showed several 35-kt wind vectors
over the southeastern portion of the circulation.  In addition, a
ship about 50 n mi south-southeast of the center reported winds to
near 30 kt, which was in good agreement with the ASCAT data.
Based on these data and the increase in organization of the
convection overnight, advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Storm Polo.  Polo becomes the sixteenth tropical storm in the
eastern Pacific basin this season.

The center of the tropical storm is located near the northeastern
edge of the deep convection due to about 15 to 20 kt of
northeasterly shear.  The shear is forecast to decrease somewhat
during the next couple of days, which should allow for gradual
strengthening.  After 72 hours, the global models suggest that
upper-level easterly winds could increase resulting in increasing
shear.  As a result, the NHC forecast shows little change in
strength late in the forecast period.  The NHC forecast is a little
below the statistical guidance and is close to the intensity
consensus, ICON.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/8 kt.  Polo is
forecast to turn northwestward today and continue in that
general direction during the next couple days while it moves around
the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over the northern Gulf
of Mexico.  Although the global models generally agree on this
scenario, there are differences in how close Polo moves to the
southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days.  The ECMWF takes
Polo inland while most of the remainder of the guidance keeps the
tropical storm offshore.  The NHC forecast is near the middle of
the guidance envelope during the first 2 to 3 days.  After that
time, a building ridge over northern Mexico should turn the cyclone
west-northwestward.  Confidence in the track forecast, especially
late in the forecast period, is lower than normal.

Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Polo.  A tropical storm watch may be required for a
portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 11.9N  98.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 12.8N  99.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 14.1N 101.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 15.5N 102.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 16.9N 104.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 18.8N 107.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  20/0600Z 19.7N 108.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  21/0600Z 20.5N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown






000
WTNT41 KNHC 160845
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

Convective cloud tops within Edouard`s eyewall have occasionally
been as cold as about -75C, but the eye has actually cooled during
the past few hours.  In addition, an 0614 UTC TRMM pass showed that
the hurricane`s eyewall is partially open on the north side.  The
Dvorak final-T estimate from TAFB increased to T5.5/102 kt but
decreased to T4.5/77 kt from SAB, while the CIMSS ADT is holding
steady near T5.6/105 kt.  Due to the discrepancy between the various
estimates, the initial intensity is being held at 95 kt.

Analyses from UW-CIMSS and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that about 15
kt of southeasterly shear continues to affect Edouard.  The shear
is expected to decrease between 12-36 hours, and since waters will
be warmer than 26C during that period, the hurricane still has a
chance to strengthen a bit.  The intensity guidance has decreased,
with none of the usual hurricane models explicitly showing Edouard
reaching major hurricane strength.  However, given the improving
environment, the NHC intensity forecast still allows for the
possibility of a major hurricane in the next 12-24 hours.  After
that time, Edouard is expected to weaken quickly due to colder water
and increasing vertical shear.  The forecast continues to show
Edouard becoming post-tropical by day 4, but the cyclone may begin
to struggle to maintain organized deep convection as early as day 3
while it`s over 22C water.

The initial motion is north-northwestward, or 340/11 kt.  Edouard
is located to the west of a mid-tropospheric high and will turn
northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during
the next 24-36 hours.  An eastward acceleration is expected by 48
hours, but then the cyclone is forecast to turn southeastward and
slow down on days 4 and 5 when it approaches the west side of a
deep-layer low between Portugal and the Azores.  The track guidance
continues to be tightly clustered, and the updated NHC forecast
has only been nudged slightly westward during the first 48 hours to
be closer to the multi-model consensus TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 30.2N  57.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 31.7N  57.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 34.3N  56.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 37.1N  52.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 39.5N  48.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 41.3N  39.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  20/0600Z 40.5N  35.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  21/0600Z 38.5N  32.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg





000
WTNT41 KNHC 160845
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014

Convective cloud tops within Edouard`s eyewall have occasionally
been as cold as about -75C, but the eye has actually cooled during
the past few hours.  In addition, an 0614 UTC TRMM pass showed that
the hurricane`s eyewall is partially open on the north side.  The
Dvorak final-T estimate from TAFB increased to T5.5/102 kt but
decreased to T4.5/77 kt from SAB, while the CIMSS ADT is holding
steady near T5.6/105 kt.  Due to the discrepancy between the various
estimates, the initial intensity is being held at 95 kt.

Analyses from UW-CIMSS and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that about 15
kt of southeasterly shear continues to affect Edouard.  The shear
is expected to decrease between 12-36 hours, and since waters will
be warmer than 26C during that period, the hurricane still has a
chance to strengthen a bit.  The intensity guidance has decreased,
with none of the usual hurricane models explicitly showing Edouard
reaching major hurricane strength.  However, given the improving
environment, the NHC intensity forecast still allows for the
possibility of a major hurricane in the next 12-24 hours.  After
that time, Edouard is expected to weaken quickly due to colder water
and increasing vertical shear.  The forecast continues to show
Edouard becoming post-tropical by day 4, but the cyclone may begin
to struggle to maintain organized deep convection as early as day 3
while it`s over 22C water.

The initial motion is north-northwestward, or 340/11 kt.  Edouard
is located to the west of a mid-tropospheric high and will turn
northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during
the next 24-36 hours.  An eastward acceleration is expected by 48
hours, but then the cyclone is forecast to turn southeastward and
slow down on days 4 and 5 when it approaches the west side of a
deep-layer low between Portugal and the Azores.  The track guidance
continues to be tightly clustered, and the updated NHC forecast
has only been nudged slightly westward during the first 48 hours to
be closer to the multi-model consensus TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 30.2N  57.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 31.7N  57.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 34.3N  56.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 37.1N  52.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 39.5N  48.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 41.3N  39.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  20/0600Z 40.5N  35.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  21/0600Z 38.5N  32.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg






000
WTPZ45 KNHC 160843
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Odile continues to have a well-organized appearance on satellite
imagery with bursts of deep convection continuing near the center.
A couple of ASCAT passes indicated a large area of 45-kt winds
over the Gulf of California just off the east-central coast of
the Baja peninsula.  Based on these data and the possibility of
stronger winds along the immediate coast of the Baja peninsula,
the initial intensity is set at 55 kt.  Odile should gradually
weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours while the circulation
continues to interact with land.  Odile is forecast to become a
tropical depression in a day or so, and degenerate to a remnant low
within 48 hours.  The new forecast now calls for dissipation within
3 days.

Odile is moving north-northwestward at about 9 kt.  The cyclone
should turn toward the north, then northeast during the next day
or so as it moves between a mid-level ridge to its east and a
mid-level trough near southern California.  The latest NHC track
is again a little faster than the previous advisory and is close to
a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile`s
circulation over the next few days.  This, along with the slow
motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally
heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern
United States.  Please see information from your local weather
office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 27.4N 112.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 12H  16/1800Z 28.5N 113.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/0600Z 29.4N 113.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...GULF OF CALIFORNIA
 36H  17/1800Z 30.4N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  18/0600Z 31.5N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown






000
WTPZ45 KNHC 160843
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

Odile continues to have a well-organized appearance on satellite
imagery with bursts of deep convection continuing near the center.
A couple of ASCAT passes indicated a large area of 45-kt winds
over the Gulf of California just off the east-central coast of
the Baja peninsula.  Based on these data and the possibility of
stronger winds along the immediate coast of the Baja peninsula,
the initial intensity is set at 55 kt.  Odile should gradually
weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours while the circulation
continues to interact with land.  Odile is forecast to become a
tropical depression in a day or so, and degenerate to a remnant low
within 48 hours.  The new forecast now calls for dissipation within
3 days.

Odile is moving north-northwestward at about 9 kt.  The cyclone
should turn toward the north, then northeast during the next day
or so as it moves between a mid-level ridge to its east and a
mid-level trough near southern California.  The latest NHC track
is again a little faster than the previous advisory and is close to
a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile`s
circulation over the next few days.  This, along with the slow
motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally
heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern
United States.  Please see information from your local weather
office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 27.4N 112.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 12H  16/1800Z 28.5N 113.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/0600Z 29.4N 113.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...GULF OF CALIFORNIA
 36H  17/1800Z 30.4N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  18/0600Z 31.5N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown





000
WTPZ45 KNHC 160258
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 55 KT

The tropical cyclone continues to have a fairly well-organized
appearance on satellite imagery, but deep convection has been
thinning out.  Applying a typical inland decay rate, the current
intensity is set at a rather uncertain 55 kt.  Continued weakening
is forecast, and the system is likely to fall below tropical storm
strength in a day or so.  The official wind speed forecast is
similar to the latest decay-SHIPS guidance and to the intensity
model consensus, and now shows Odile becoming a remnant low by 72
hours.

Odile`s heading has shifted a little to the right, and the
initial motion estimate is 340/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the
east of the cyclone should cause a turn toward the north in a day or
so, and a low- to mid-level trough near southern California is
likely to turn Odile or its remnant low north-northeastward in 2-3
days.  The official track forecast is a little faster than the
previous one and is close to the latest dynamical model consensus
forecast, TVCE.

Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile`s
circulation over the next few days.  This, along with the slow
motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally
heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern
United States.  Please see information from your local weather
office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 26.6N 112.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 27.8N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/0000Z 28.8N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/1200Z 29.7N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  18/0000Z 30.6N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  19/0000Z 32.0N 111.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch






000
WTPZ45 KNHC 160258
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 55 KT

The tropical cyclone continues to have a fairly well-organized
appearance on satellite imagery, but deep convection has been
thinning out.  Applying a typical inland decay rate, the current
intensity is set at a rather uncertain 55 kt.  Continued weakening
is forecast, and the system is likely to fall below tropical storm
strength in a day or so.  The official wind speed forecast is
similar to the latest decay-SHIPS guidance and to the intensity
model consensus, and now shows Odile becoming a remnant low by 72
hours.

Odile`s heading has shifted a little to the right, and the
initial motion estimate is 340/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the
east of the cyclone should cause a turn toward the north in a day or
so, and a low- to mid-level trough near southern California is
likely to turn Odile or its remnant low north-northeastward in 2-3
days.  The official track forecast is a little faster than the
previous one and is close to the latest dynamical model consensus
forecast, TVCE.

Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile`s
circulation over the next few days.  This, along with the slow
motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally
heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern
United States.  Please see information from your local weather
office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 26.6N 112.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 27.8N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/0000Z 28.8N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/1200Z 29.7N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  18/0000Z 30.6N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  19/0000Z 32.0N 111.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch





000
WTNT41 KNHC 160240
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014

Edouard has not strengthened further.  While the eye has become
somewhat better defined and warmer since the last advisory, deep
convection in the central dense overcast is not quite as cold.  The
intensification phase that the cyclone was experiencing earlier may
have been interrupted by 15-20 kt of southeasterly shear as analyzed
by the SHIPS model output and UW-CIMSS analyses.  Dvorak intensity
estimates remain a consensus T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and SAB, while
UW-CIMSS CI values are around T5.6/105kt.  A blend of these data is
used to hold the initial intensity at 95 kt.

Edouard still has another 24-36 hours to intensify.  Moderately
strong southeasterly shear, resulting from the flow between
a low to the southwest and a high to the east at upper levels, is
forecast to decrease as Edouard nears its point of recurvature.
Near and immediately after that time, the shear and motion vectors
should align, which tends to favor more symmetric convection.  These
favorable factors, despite gradually cooler waters beneath the
cyclone, should allow Edouard to reach major hurricane status.
Drastically cooler waters and a substantial increase in
southwesterly shear beyond 48 hours suggest that a rapid decay of
the cyclone should occur by that time.  Interaction with a
baroclinic zone in 2-3 days should cause the beginning of
extratropical transition, but this process is expected to become
interrupted when the cyclone shears apart and outruns this weather
system.  Edouard is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone in 96
hours, if not slightly sooner, and gradually spin down over the
northeastern Atlantic.  The NHC wind speed forecast is the same as
the previous one through 48 hours and is above all of the intensity
guidance. The forecast is lowered relative to the last advisory
after that time and is near the multi-model consensus IVCN.

Edouard has recently turned north-northwestward and the initial
motion estimate is now 335/11.  The track guidance remains in
excellent agreement through 72 hours.  The cyclone is expected to
turn northward in 12-18 hours when it rounds the western periphery
of a subtropical ridge.  An acceleration toward the northeast, and
then east-northeast, is expected beyond 24 hours as Edouard is
captured by a relatively fast-paced westerly flow over the north
Atlantic.  Near the end of the forecast period, the increasingly
shallow vortex should turn eastward and southeastward within the
flow on the west side of a deep-layer low over the northeast
Atlantic.  The track guidance has shifted noticeably to the left on
this cycle.  However, to maintain continuity, the new NHC track
forecast is only nudged to the left of the previous one, and lies on
the far right side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 29.0N  56.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 30.5N  57.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 32.8N  56.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 35.5N  54.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 38.1N  50.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 40.9N  41.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 40.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  21/0000Z 38.6N  32.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain






000
WTNT41 KNHC 160240
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014

Edouard has not strengthened further.  While the eye has become
somewhat better defined and warmer since the last advisory, deep
convection in the central dense overcast is not quite as cold.  The
intensification phase that the cyclone was experiencing earlier may
have been interrupted by 15-20 kt of southeasterly shear as analyzed
by the SHIPS model output and UW-CIMSS analyses.  Dvorak intensity
estimates remain a consensus T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and SAB, while
UW-CIMSS CI values are around T5.6/105kt.  A blend of these data is
used to hold the initial intensity at 95 kt.

Edouard still has another 24-36 hours to intensify.  Moderately
strong southeasterly shear, resulting from the flow between
a low to the southwest and a high to the east at upper levels, is
forecast to decrease as Edouard nears its point of recurvature.
Near and immediately after that time, the shear and motion vectors
should align, which tends to favor more symmetric convection.  These
favorable factors, despite gradually cooler waters beneath the
cyclone, should allow Edouard to reach major hurricane status.
Drastically cooler waters and a substantial increase in
southwesterly shear beyond 48 hours suggest that a rapid decay of
the cyclone should occur by that time.  Interaction with a
baroclinic zone in 2-3 days should cause the beginning of
extratropical transition, but this process is expected to become
interrupted when the cyclone shears apart and outruns this weather
system.  Edouard is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone in 96
hours, if not slightly sooner, and gradually spin down over the
northeastern Atlantic.  The NHC wind speed forecast is the same as
the previous one through 48 hours and is above all of the intensity
guidance. The forecast is lowered relative to the last advisory
after that time and is near the multi-model consensus IVCN.

Edouard has recently turned north-northwestward and the initial
motion estimate is now 335/11.  The track guidance remains in
excellent agreement through 72 hours.  The cyclone is expected to
turn northward in 12-18 hours when it rounds the western periphery
of a subtropical ridge.  An acceleration toward the northeast, and
then east-northeast, is expected beyond 24 hours as Edouard is
captured by a relatively fast-paced westerly flow over the north
Atlantic.  Near the end of the forecast period, the increasingly
shallow vortex should turn eastward and southeastward within the
flow on the west side of a deep-layer low over the northeast
Atlantic.  The track guidance has shifted noticeably to the left on
this cycle.  However, to maintain continuity, the new NHC track
forecast is only nudged to the left of the previous one, and lies on
the far right side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 29.0N  56.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 30.5N  57.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 32.8N  56.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 35.5N  54.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 38.1N  50.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 40.9N  41.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 40.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  21/0000Z 38.6N  32.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain





000
WTPZ45 KNHC 160236
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

The tropical cyclone continues to have a fairly well-organized
appearance on satellite imagery, but deep convection has been
thinning out.  Applying a typical inland decay rate, the current
intensity is set at a rather uncertain 55 kt.  Continued weakening
is forecast, and the system is likely to fall below tropical storm
strength in a day or so.  The official wind speed forecast is
similar to the latest decay-SHIPS guidance and to the intensity
model consensus, and now shows Odile becoming a remnant low by 72
hours.

Odile`s heading has shifted a little to the right, and the
initial motion estimate is 340/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the
east of the cyclone should cause a turn toward the north in a day or
so, and a low- to mid-level trough near southern California is
likely to turn Odile or its remnant low north-northeastward in 2-3
days.  The official track forecast is a little faster than the
previous one and is close to the latest dynamical model consensus
forecast, TVCE.

Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile`s
circulation over the next few days.  This, along with the slow
motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally
heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern
United States.  Please see information from your local weather
office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 26.6N 112.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 27.8N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/0000Z 28.8N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/1200Z 29.7N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  18/0000Z 30.6N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  19/0000Z 32.0N 111.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch





000
WTPZ45 KNHC 152043
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

Visible satellite images show that the center of Odile remains well
defined while inland over central Baja California Sur.  An Air Force
plane flying over the Gulf of California recently measured surface
winds approaching hurricane strength.  While the Dvorak technique is
not valid for cyclones over land, using the inland Decay rate yields
a current intensity estimate of 70 kt.  It should be noted that
these highest winds are likely occurring over a very small area.
The official intensity forecast follows the Decay-SHIPS model
very closely and shows the system weakening to a tropical storm in
12 hours and to a depression in 48 hours.  In 3-4 days, the system
should degenerate into a remnant low.  This is similar to the
previous NHC wind speed forecast.  Given the mountainous terrain of
the Baja California peninsula, the rate of weakening could be even
faster than anticipated.

The hurricane continues moving northwestward or 325/11 kt.  A
mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico should steer Odile
northwestward to north-northwestward for the next day or so.
Afterwards, a low-level trough over southern California should
cause the weakening cyclone to turn northward and then
northeastward.  The official forecast track is similar to the
previous one and to a consensus of the latest GFS and ECMWF
forecasts.

Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile`s
circulation over the next few days.  This, along with the slow
motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally
heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern
United States.  Please see information from your local weather
office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 25.5N 111.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 26.8N 112.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  16/1800Z 28.0N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/0600Z 29.0N 113.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  17/1800Z 29.7N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  18/1800Z 30.8N 112.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  19/1800Z 31.5N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch






000
WTPZ45 KNHC 152043
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

Visible satellite images show that the center of Odile remains well
defined while inland over central Baja California Sur.  An Air Force
plane flying over the Gulf of California recently measured surface
winds approaching hurricane strength.  While the Dvorak technique is
not valid for cyclones over land, using the inland Decay rate yields
a current intensity estimate of 70 kt.  It should be noted that
these highest winds are likely occurring over a very small area.
The official intensity forecast follows the Decay-SHIPS model
very closely and shows the system weakening to a tropical storm in
12 hours and to a depression in 48 hours.  In 3-4 days, the system
should degenerate into a remnant low.  This is similar to the
previous NHC wind speed forecast.  Given the mountainous terrain of
the Baja California peninsula, the rate of weakening could be even
faster than anticipated.

The hurricane continues moving northwestward or 325/11 kt.  A
mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico should steer Odile
northwestward to north-northwestward for the next day or so.
Afterwards, a low-level trough over southern California should
cause the weakening cyclone to turn northward and then
northeastward.  The official forecast track is similar to the
previous one and to a consensus of the latest GFS and ECMWF
forecasts.

Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile`s
circulation over the next few days.  This, along with the slow
motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally
heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern
United States.  Please see information from your local weather
office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 25.5N 111.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 26.8N 112.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  16/1800Z 28.0N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/0600Z 29.0N 113.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  17/1800Z 29.7N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  18/1800Z 30.8N 112.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  19/1800Z 31.5N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch





000
WTNT41 KNHC 152033
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014

Edouard is approaching category 3 strength.  The eye of the
hurricane has become circular this afternoon, and deep convection
has increased in the eyewall.  Flight-level and SFMR winds, as well
as dropsonde data from two NOAA reconnaissance aircraft, indicate
that maximum winds are near 95 kt and the minimum pressure has
decreased to 963 mb.  Radar images from one of the NOAA aircraft
indicate that the convective pattern is quite symmetric.

The hurricane could strengthen some more during the next day or so
while both the atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain favorable.
After that time, however, cooler water, drier air, and a notable
increase in shear should cause Edouard to weaken at a steady pace.
The cyclone is forecast to transition to a post-tropical cyclone by
day 4 when it is expected to be over very cold water and interacting
with a frontal zone.  The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end
of the model guidance for the next 36 hours, and then follows the
intensity model consensus, IVCN.

Edouard continues to move northwestward but at a slightly slower
pace than earlier, 305/11 kt.  Water vapor imagery and satellite-
derived winds indicate that the western side of the ridge that has
been steering the hurricane is eroding in response to a trough over
the western Atlantic.  This change in the large-scale pattern
should cause Edouard to turn northward during the next 24 hours.
By late Tuesday and Wednesday, the system is expected to accelerate
northeastward and then eastward when it becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies.  A slow down and a turn toward the
southeast is predicted by the end of the forecast period when the
weakening system is steered by the flow on the west side of a
deep-layer low over the northeast Atlantic.  The NHC track forecast
has again been nudged to the left to come into better agreement with
the latest guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 28.0N  56.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 29.5N  57.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 31.6N  57.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 34.0N  55.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 36.8N  52.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 40.6N  43.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 40.5N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  20/1800Z 39.5N  33.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi





000
WTNT41 KNHC 152033
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014

Edouard is approaching category 3 strength.  The eye of the
hurricane has become circular this afternoon, and deep convection
has increased in the eyewall.  Flight-level and SFMR winds, as well
as dropsonde data from two NOAA reconnaissance aircraft, indicate
that maximum winds are near 95 kt and the minimum pressure has
decreased to 963 mb.  Radar images from one of the NOAA aircraft
indicate that the convective pattern is quite symmetric.

The hurricane could strengthen some more during the next day or so
while both the atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain favorable.
After that time, however, cooler water, drier air, and a notable
increase in shear should cause Edouard to weaken at a steady pace.
The cyclone is forecast to transition to a post-tropical cyclone by
day 4 when it is expected to be over very cold water and interacting
with a frontal zone.  The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end
of the model guidance for the next 36 hours, and then follows the
intensity model consensus, IVCN.

Edouard continues to move northwestward but at a slightly slower
pace than earlier, 305/11 kt.  Water vapor imagery and satellite-
derived winds indicate that the western side of the ridge that has
been steering the hurricane is eroding in response to a trough over
the western Atlantic.  This change in the large-scale pattern
should cause Edouard to turn northward during the next 24 hours.
By late Tuesday and Wednesday, the system is expected to accelerate
northeastward and then eastward when it becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies.  A slow down and a turn toward the
southeast is predicted by the end of the forecast period when the
weakening system is steered by the flow on the west side of a
deep-layer low over the northeast Atlantic.  The NHC track forecast
has again been nudged to the left to come into better agreement with
the latest guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 28.0N  56.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 29.5N  57.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 31.6N  57.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 34.0N  55.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 36.8N  52.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 40.6N  43.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 40.5N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  20/1800Z 39.5N  33.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi






000
WTPZ45 KNHC 151455
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

Microwave satellite images indicate that the center of Hurricane
Odile is displaced southwest of the conventional fixes, placing the
center just inland along the west coast of Baja California Sur
north of Santa Fe. The eye is still apparent in the microwave data,
so the intensity is being lowered slowly since much of the low-level
circulation is still over water on both sides of the Baja peninsula.

The initial motion is northwestward or 325/12 kt, based mainly on
microwave satellite positions. Odile is expected to move slowly
northwestward to north-northwestward for the next 36-48 hours,
essentially remaining inland over the Baja California peninsula. As
Odile rounds the western portion of a deep-layer ridge located over
northern Mexico, the cyclone is expected to emerge over the northern
Gulf of California as a severely weakened and shallow low pressure
system on Day 3, and is expected to move inland over northwestern
Mexico as a remnant low on Day 4. The NHC track forecast is just an
update of the previous advisory track and lies close to the
consensus model TVCE.

Due to the expected prolonged interaction with the mountainous
terrain of the Baja California peninsula, the surface winds are
forecast to rapidly decrease during the next 48 hours, and the
official intensity forecast closely follows the Decay-SHIPS model.
However, it is important to note that the circulation aloft will not
weaken as quickly as the low-level flow and, as a result, wind
speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains can
often up to 30 percent stronger than indicated in this advisory. In
some elevated locations, the winds can be even greater.

Since strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the
center of Odile, users should not focus on the exact forecast track.
Also, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the
Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile`s circulation
northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States
during the next few days. These factors, in combination with
Odile`s eventual slow forward speed, will likely result in heavy
rains and life-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please
see information from your local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 24.7N 111.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 26.0N 112.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 24H  16/1200Z 27.5N 113.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/0000Z 28.6N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  17/1200Z 29.6N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/1200Z 30.5N 113.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  19/1200Z 31.0N 112.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart






000
WTPZ45 KNHC 151455
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

Microwave satellite images indicate that the center of Hurricane
Odile is displaced southwest of the conventional fixes, placing the
center just inland along the west coast of Baja California Sur
north of Santa Fe. The eye is still apparent in the microwave data,
so the intensity is being lowered slowly since much of the low-level
circulation is still over water on both sides of the Baja peninsula.

The initial motion is northwestward or 325/12 kt, based mainly on
microwave satellite positions. Odile is expected to move slowly
northwestward to north-northwestward for the next 36-48 hours,
essentially remaining inland over the Baja California peninsula. As
Odile rounds the western portion of a deep-layer ridge located over
northern Mexico, the cyclone is expected to emerge over the northern
Gulf of California as a severely weakened and shallow low pressure
system on Day 3, and is expected to move inland over northwestern
Mexico as a remnant low on Day 4. The NHC track forecast is just an
update of the previous advisory track and lies close to the
consensus model TVCE.

Due to the expected prolonged interaction with the mountainous
terrain of the Baja California peninsula, the surface winds are
forecast to rapidly decrease during the next 48 hours, and the
official intensity forecast closely follows the Decay-SHIPS model.
However, it is important to note that the circulation aloft will not
weaken as quickly as the low-level flow and, as a result, wind
speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains can
often up to 30 percent stronger than indicated in this advisory. In
some elevated locations, the winds can be even greater.

Since strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the
center of Odile, users should not focus on the exact forecast track.
Also, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the
Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile`s circulation
northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States
during the next few days. These factors, in combination with
Odile`s eventual slow forward speed, will likely result in heavy
rains and life-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please
see information from your local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 24.7N 111.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 26.0N 112.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 24H  16/1200Z 27.5N 113.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 36H  17/0000Z 28.6N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  17/1200Z 29.6N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/1200Z 30.5N 113.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  19/1200Z 31.0N 112.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart





000
WTNT41 KNHC 151437
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014

Satellite images show that the eye of Edouard has become larger
and more distinct during the past few hours, with a fairly
symmetric inner-core convective pattern.  Despite the improved
structure, Dvorak classifications were unchanged from earlier so
the initial wind speed is held at 90 kt.  Three NOAA hurricane
hunter aircraft are currently en route to investigate Edouard and
will provide excellent data to help assess its intensity and
structure.

Edouard has been moving on a steady northwestward path at about 13
kt for the past 24 hours, but a gradual turn toward the north is
expected during the next day or so while the subtropical ridge to
its north shifts eastward and weakens.  By late Tuesday and
Wednesday, Edouard is forecast to be embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies, causing the cyclone to accelerate to the northeast.  A
decrease in forward speed and a turn to the east or southeast is
predicted by the end of the forecast period when the system is
steered by the flow to the west of a deep-layer low over the
northeast Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is nudged to the left
of the previous track through 72 hours, toward the latest TVCA
guidance.

Some strengthening appears likely during the next 24 to 36 hours
while the hurricane remains in favorable conditions.  Beyond that
time, cooler water, dry air, and a pronounced increase in shear
should cause the system to weaken steadily.  Post-tropical
transition is expected by day 4 when the cyclone is forecast to be
over sea surface temperature below 23 C.  The post-tropical phase of
the track and intensity forecast is partially based on guidance from
NOAA`s Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 27.3N  55.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 28.6N  56.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 30.5N  57.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 32.8N  56.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 35.4N  54.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 40.0N  45.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 40.5N  38.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  20/1200Z 40.0N  34.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi





000
WTNT41 KNHC 151437
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014

Satellite images show that the eye of Edouard has become larger
and more distinct during the past few hours, with a fairly
symmetric inner-core convective pattern.  Despite the improved
structure, Dvorak classifications were unchanged from earlier so
the initial wind speed is held at 90 kt.  Three NOAA hurricane
hunter aircraft are currently en route to investigate Edouard and
will provide excellent data to help assess its intensity and
structure.

Edouard has been moving on a steady northwestward path at about 13
kt for the past 24 hours, but a gradual turn toward the north is
expected during the next day or so while the subtropical ridge to
its north shifts eastward and weakens.  By late Tuesday and
Wednesday, Edouard is forecast to be embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies, causing the cyclone to accelerate to the northeast.  A
decrease in forward speed and a turn to the east or southeast is
predicted by the end of the forecast period when the system is
steered by the flow to the west of a deep-layer low over the
northeast Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is nudged to the left
of the previous track through 72 hours, toward the latest TVCA
guidance.

Some strengthening appears likely during the next 24 to 36 hours
while the hurricane remains in favorable conditions.  Beyond that
time, cooler water, dry air, and a pronounced increase in shear
should cause the system to weaken steadily.  Post-tropical
transition is expected by day 4 when the cyclone is forecast to be
over sea surface temperature below 23 C.  The post-tropical phase of
the track and intensity forecast is partially based on guidance from
NOAA`s Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 27.3N  55.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 28.6N  56.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 30.5N  57.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 32.8N  56.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 35.4N  54.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 40.0N  45.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 40.5N  38.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  20/1200Z 40.0N  34.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi






000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150854
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

Satellite data showed that Odile made landfall near Cabo San Lucas
around 0445 UTC.  The estimated intensity of 110 kt at landfall
ties Odile with Olivia (1967) as the strongest hurricane to make
landfall in the satellite era in the state of Baja California Sur.
Since landfall, the eye of Odile has filled in conventional
satellite imagery, but the inner-core convection remains strong and
very symmetric.  The initial wind speed has been reduced to 100 kt
for this advisory. The hurricane should steadily weaken during
the next few days while the circulation and inner-core continue to
interact with the Baja California peninsula.  The latest NHC
forecast is close to the intensity consensus, and is lower than
the previous NHC advisory.

Odile is moving north-northwestward at 14 kt.  The cyclone is
forecast to move northwestward to north-northwestward around the
western portion of a mid-level ridge over the southern United
States during the next couple of days.  The forward speed of Odile
should slow down as the cyclone weakens and becomes a more shallow
system.  In a few days, the low-level circulation is forecast to
turn northward, then northeastward, and dissipate over northern
Mexico or the northern portion of the Gulf of California in 4 to 5
days. The NHC track forecast lies between the latest GFS and
ECMWF models.

Since strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the
center of Odile, users should not focus on the exact forecast track.
Moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the
Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile`s circulation
northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States
during the next several days.  This could result in heavy rains and
life-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please see
information from your local weather office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 23.7N 110.4W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
 12H  15/1800Z 25.1N 111.7W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 24H  16/0600Z 26.7N 112.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 36H  16/1800Z 28.0N 113.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 48H  17/0600Z 29.0N 114.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/0600Z 30.0N 113.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  19/0600Z 30.7N 113.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown






000
WTNT41 KNHC 150854
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014

Data from a NASA Global Hawk mission indicate that Edouard has
strengthened since yesterday`s NOAA P-3 flight.  A dropsonde
released in the eyewall measured a surface pressure of 969 mb at
0424 UTC, and based on pressure-wind relationships, the
corresponding intensity would normally be near the threshold for a
major hurricane.  This is supported by a 95-100 kt estimate from the
UW-CIMSS ADT.  On the other hand, low-level wind data from the
dropsondes, as well as Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, yield an
intensity estimate between 75-80 kt.  As a compromise between the
data, the intensity is raised to 90 kt on this advisory.

Environmental conditions should support some additional
intensification during the next couple of days.  Modest
southeasterly shear could affect Edouard for the next day or so, but
the shear is expected to diminish by 36-48 hours.  In addition, the
hurricane is forecast to remain over warm water for another 2-3
days, and the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Edouard reaching
major hurricane status between 24-48 hours.  After that time, the
cyclone will be moving over much colder water, and a fast weakening
trend is expected by day 3.  Edouard is forecast to be over 22C
water by days 4 and 5, which is likely to cause the system to lose
its deep convection and become post-tropical.  At this point, it
appears that Edouard will remain separate from any frontal zones
over the north Atlantic and not become extratropical during the
forecast period.

The initial motion remains 305/13 kt.  Edouard is expected to turn
northward around a mid-tropospheric high located to its east and
then northeastward in 2-3 days when it becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies.  The track guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario, and there is very little spread among the various
models.  The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the
previous one and is nudged in the direction of the multi-model
consensus TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 26.9N  54.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 27.9N  55.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 29.6N  57.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 31.6N  57.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 34.1N  55.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 39.1N  48.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 41.0N  40.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  20/0600Z 40.5N  35.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg





000
WTNT41 KNHC 150854
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014

Data from a NASA Global Hawk mission indicate that Edouard has
strengthened since yesterday`s NOAA P-3 flight.  A dropsonde
released in the eyewall measured a surface pressure of 969 mb at
0424 UTC, and based on pressure-wind relationships, the
corresponding intensity would normally be near the threshold for a
major hurricane.  This is supported by a 95-100 kt estimate from the
UW-CIMSS ADT.  On the other hand, low-level wind data from the
dropsondes, as well as Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, yield an
intensity estimate between 75-80 kt.  As a compromise between the
data, the intensity is raised to 90 kt on this advisory.

Environmental conditions should support some additional
intensification during the next couple of days.  Modest
southeasterly shear could affect Edouard for the next day or so, but
the shear is expected to diminish by 36-48 hours.  In addition, the
hurricane is forecast to remain over warm water for another 2-3
days, and the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Edouard reaching
major hurricane status between 24-48 hours.  After that time, the
cyclone will be moving over much colder water, and a fast weakening
trend is expected by day 3.  Edouard is forecast to be over 22C
water by days 4 and 5, which is likely to cause the system to lose
its deep convection and become post-tropical.  At this point, it
appears that Edouard will remain separate from any frontal zones
over the north Atlantic and not become extratropical during the
forecast period.

The initial motion remains 305/13 kt.  Edouard is expected to turn
northward around a mid-tropospheric high located to its east and
then northeastward in 2-3 days when it becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies.  The track guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario, and there is very little spread among the various
models.  The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the
previous one and is nudged in the direction of the multi-model
consensus TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 26.9N  54.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 27.9N  55.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 29.6N  57.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 31.6N  57.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 34.1N  55.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 39.1N  48.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 41.0N  40.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  20/0600Z 40.5N  35.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg






000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150303
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CORRECTED STATUS FROM EXTRATROPICAL TO REMNANT LOW AT 120 HOURS

Geostationary and microwave imagery indicate that the inner eyewall
of the hurricane has dissipated, leaving only an outer eyewall at a
radius of about 25 n mi.  This broadening of the inner-core wind
field normally corresponds to some weakening, but, given the
uncertainties, the current intensity is held at 110 kt.  This is
somewhat lower than the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.
Since the center will be moving over or at least very near land
shortly, it is unlikely that the eyewall will have time to contract
and complete the eyewall replacement cycle.  Weakening is expected
to commence by early Monday.  The amount of weakening over the next
several days depends on how much the circulation interacts with the
Baja California Peninsula.  On the latest NHC forecast track, the
center is expected to remain over land for much of the period.
Therefore, the official intensity forecast is significantly lower
than the previous one.

The motion has been to the right and somewhat faster than earlier
today.  Therefore the official track forecast has been adjusted
accordingly.  This is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF
solutions.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of
Odile.  In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern
Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile`s
circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United
States by early next week.   This could result in heavy rains and
life-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please see
information from your local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 22.6N 109.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 24.0N 110.9W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
 24H  16/0000Z 25.4N 112.0W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 36H  16/1200Z 26.7N 113.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 48H  17/0000Z 27.7N 113.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/0000Z 28.7N 114.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  19/0000Z 29.8N 113.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 30.5N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch






000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150300
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Geostationary and microwave imagery indicate that the inner eyewall
of the hurricane has dissipated, leaving only an outer eyewall at a
radius of about 25 n mi.  This broadening of the inner-core wind
field normally corresponds to some weakening, but, given the
uncertainties, the current intensity is held at 110 kt.  This is
somewhat lower than the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.
Since the center will be moving over or at least very near land
shortly, it is unlikely that the eyewall will have time to contract
and complete the eyewall replacement cycle.  Weakening is expected
to commence by early Monday.  The amount of weakening over the next
several days depends on how much the circulation interacts with the
Baja California Peninsula.  On the latest NHC forecast track, the
center is expected to remain over land for much of the period.
Therefore, the official intensity forecast is significantly lower
than the previous one.

The motion has been to the right and somewhat faster than earlier
today.  Therefore the official track forecast has been adjusted
accordingly.  This is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF
solutions.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of
Odile.  In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern
Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile`s
circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United
States by early next week.   This could result in heavy rains and
life-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please see
information from your local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 22.6N 109.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 24.0N 110.9W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
 24H  16/0000Z 25.4N 112.0W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 36H  16/1200Z 26.7N 113.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 48H  17/0000Z 27.7N 113.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/0000Z 28.7N 114.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  19/0000Z 29.8N 113.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 30.5N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch





000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150300
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Geostationary and microwave imagery indicate that the inner eyewall
of the hurricane has dissipated, leaving only an outer eyewall at a
radius of about 25 n mi.  This broadening of the inner-core wind
field normally corresponds to some weakening, but, given the
uncertainties, the current intensity is held at 110 kt.  This is
somewhat lower than the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.
Since the center will be moving over or at least very near land
shortly, it is unlikely that the eyewall will have time to contract
and complete the eyewall replacement cycle.  Weakening is expected
to commence by early Monday.  The amount of weakening over the next
several days depends on how much the circulation interacts with the
Baja California Peninsula.  On the latest NHC forecast track, the
center is expected to remain over land for much of the period.
Therefore, the official intensity forecast is significantly lower
than the previous one.

The motion has been to the right and somewhat faster than earlier
today.  Therefore the official track forecast has been adjusted
accordingly.  This is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF
solutions.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of
Odile.  In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern
Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile`s
circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United
States by early next week.   This could result in heavy rains and
life-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please see
information from your local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 22.6N 109.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 24.0N 110.9W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
 24H  16/0000Z 25.4N 112.0W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 36H  16/1200Z 26.7N 113.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 48H  17/0000Z 27.7N 113.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 72H  18/0000Z 28.7N 114.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  19/0000Z 29.8N 113.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 30.5N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch






000
WTNT41 KNHC 150255
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014

Edouard`s cloud pattern has not changed much in organization this
evening.  Although the eye had become better defined and warmer, it
has recently disappeared.  Convective cloud top temperatures in the
central dense overcast have also warmed during the past several
hours. There is some evidence that dry air may be wrapping into
portions of the inner core of the hurricane. Dvorak intensity
estimates were a consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, so
the initial intensity estimate is held at 75 kt.

The environment ahead of Edouard is likely to become more conducive
for intensification during the next day or two.  While traversing
warm waters, the shear is forecast to reach a minimum in 36-48
hours. The only inhibiting factor would seem to be dry environmental
air wrapping around the circulation.  After achieving a peak
intensity near the point of recurvature, gradual weakening is likely
to commence while the hurricane moves toward decreasing sea surface
temperatures. A considerable increase in southwesterly shear and
dramatically cooler waters should hasten the weakening trend beyond
72 hours. Edouard`s interaction with a shortwave trough moving
across Atlantic Canada in 4-5 days should lead to the beginning of
extratropical transition at that time, but the guidance is not clear
cut on a completion of this process by day 5.  The intensity
forecast is near or just above the multi-model consensus through 72
hours and near or a little below it at the end of the forecast
period.

The initial motion estimate is 305/13 kt. Edouard should continue on
a northwestward heading on the south side of subtropical ridge until
the ridge retreats eastward in a day or so.  This change in the
steering pattern should result in Edouard`s turning sharply
northward  in about 36 hours.  The hurricane should then be captured
by a strong mid-latitude westerly flow and accelerate northeastward
in 3-4 days, and turn generally eastward with a decrease in forward
speed by day 5. The track guidance has shifted significantly to the
left this cycle, and the official forecast track has been moved in
that direction.  The new track forecast, however, lies on the far
right side of the guidance envelope.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 26.2N  53.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 27.2N  54.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 28.6N  56.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 30.2N  57.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 32.4N  56.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 37.4N  51.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 41.2N  42.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  20/0000Z 41.2N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain





000
WTNT41 KNHC 150255
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014

Edouard`s cloud pattern has not changed much in organization this
evening.  Although the eye had become better defined and warmer, it
has recently disappeared.  Convective cloud top temperatures in the
central dense overcast have also warmed during the past several
hours. There is some evidence that dry air may be wrapping into
portions of the inner core of the hurricane. Dvorak intensity
estimates were a consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, so
the initial intensity estimate is held at 75 kt.

The environment ahead of Edouard is likely to become more conducive
for intensification during the next day or two.  While traversing
warm waters, the shear is forecast to reach a minimum in 36-48
hours. The only inhibiting factor would seem to be dry environmental
air wrapping around the circulation.  After achieving a peak
intensity near the point of recurvature, gradual weakening is likely
to commence while the hurricane moves toward decreasing sea surface
temperatures. A considerable increase in southwesterly shear and
dramatically cooler waters should hasten the weakening trend beyond
72 hours. Edouard`s interaction with a shortwave trough moving
across Atlantic Canada in 4-5 days should lead to the beginning of
extratropical transition at that time, but the guidance is not clear
cut on a completion of this process by day 5.  The intensity
forecast is near or just above the multi-model consensus through 72
hours and near or a little below it at the end of the forecast
period.

The initial motion estimate is 305/13 kt. Edouard should continue on
a northwestward heading on the south side of subtropical ridge until
the ridge retreats eastward in a day or so.  This change in the
steering pattern should result in Edouard`s turning sharply
northward  in about 36 hours.  The hurricane should then be captured
by a strong mid-latitude westerly flow and accelerate northeastward
in 3-4 days, and turn generally eastward with a decrease in forward
speed by day 5. The track guidance has shifted significantly to the
left this cycle, and the official forecast track has been moved in
that direction.  The new track forecast, however, lies on the far
right side of the guidance envelope.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 26.2N  53.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 27.2N  54.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 28.6N  56.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 30.2N  57.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 32.4N  56.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 37.4N  51.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 41.2N  42.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  20/0000Z 41.2N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain






000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150232
TCDEP1

REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

The last few hours of visible imagery this evening suggested that
the circulation of the depression was becoming elongated along a
north-south axis and losing definition, with definitive
westward-moving cloud elements near the alleged center hard to
identify.  In addition, the decaying circulation was becoming
increasingly separated from a limited patch of deep convection.
Based on these observations, this will be the last advisory on this
system.  The remnants of the depression are expected to turn
northeastward and become fully absorbed within the circulation of
Hurricane Odile over the next day or so.

For additional information on the remnants of the depression, please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 16.3N 112.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...DISSIPATED
 12H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Franklin





000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150232
TCDEP1

REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

The last few hours of visible imagery this evening suggested that
the circulation of the depression was becoming elongated along a
north-south axis and losing definition, with definitive
westward-moving cloud elements near the alleged center hard to
identify.  In addition, the decaying circulation was becoming
increasingly separated from a limited patch of deep convection.
Based on these observations, this will be the last advisory on this
system.  The remnants of the depression are expected to turn
northeastward and become fully absorbed within the circulation of
Hurricane Odile over the next day or so.

For additional information on the remnants of the depression, please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under
AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 16.3N 112.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...DISSIPATED
 12H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Franklin






000
WTPZ45 KNHC 142058
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Odile has been undergoing a concentric eyewall cycle since the
previous advisory, and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
has found an inner eye of about 10-12 nmi diameter and an outer eye
of 36 nmi diameter. Despite this normally unfavorable inner-core
structure, the central pressure has decreased to 922 mb and the 700-
mb maximum flight-level winds have increased from 122 kt to 134 kt
during the two passes through the northeastern quadrant. The highest
SFMR winds measured thus far have only been around 100 kt. However,
given the strong flight-level winds and the very low central
pressure, the initial intensity has only been decreased slightly to
110 kt, which is a blend of the SFMR winds and surface-adjusted
flight-level winds.

Major Hurricane Odile is moving north-northwestward or 330/13 kt.
There is no significant change to the previous forecast track
reasoning. A strong deep-layer ridge over Mexico is expected to keep
Odile moving north-northwestward to northwestward during the next
72 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to rapidly
weaken, with the low-level circulation decoupling from the mid- and
upper-level circulations. By Days 4 and 5, the shallow cyclone is
expected to become stationary or drift eastward within weak
low-level westerly flow. The models are tightly clustered through
72 hours, but diverge significantly after that with the ECMWF model
taking Odile intact across northern Baja and into the southwestern
U.S., while the GFS model keeps Odile`s remnant low west of Baja
California. The official forecast leans heavily toward the GFS model
on Days 4 and 5 due to the expected rapid weakening of Odile. The
NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly closer to Baja
California, but not as far eastward as the consensus model TCVE.

Given that the central pressure has continued to decrease, and
satellite imagery and recon data suggest that the concentric
eyewall cycle could be coming to an end, some re-strengthening
overnight during the convective maximum period is a very distinct
possibility. During the 12-36 hour time frame, interaction with the
mountainous terrain of Baja California should induce gradual
weakening. By 48 hours and beyond, rapid weakening is expected due
to sharply decreasing sea-surface temperatures and increasing
southwesterly wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the previous advisory and is close to the consensus model IVCN.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of
Odile.  In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern
Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile`s
circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United
States by early next week.   This could result in heavy rains and
life-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please see
information from your local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 21.1N 108.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 22.6N 110.1W  115 KT 135 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 24.2N 111.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 25.4N 112.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 26.5N 113.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 27.8N 115.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 28.3N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 28.5N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart






000
WTPZ45 KNHC 142058
TCDEP5

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Odile has been undergoing a concentric eyewall cycle since the
previous advisory, and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
has found an inner eye of about 10-12 nmi diameter and an outer eye
of 36 nmi diameter. Despite this normally unfavorable inner-core
structure, the central pressure has decreased to 922 mb and the 700-
mb maximum flight-level winds have increased from 122 kt to 134 kt
during the two passes through the northeastern quadrant. The highest
SFMR winds measured thus far have only been around 100 kt. However,
given the strong flight-level winds and the very low central
pressure, the initial intensity has only been decreased slightly to
110 kt, which is a blend of the SFMR winds and surface-adjusted
flight-level winds.

Major Hurricane Odile is moving north-northwestward or 330/13 kt.
There is no significant change to the previous forecast track
reasoning. A strong deep-layer ridge over Mexico is expected to keep
Odile moving north-northwestward to northwestward during the next
72 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to rapidly
weaken, with the low-level circulation decoupling from the mid- and
upper-level circulations. By Days 4 and 5, the shallow cyclone is
expected to become stationary or drift eastward within weak
low-level westerly flow. The models are tightly clustered through
72 hours, but diverge significantly after that with the ECMWF model
taking Odile intact across northern Baja and into the southwestern
U.S., while the GFS model keeps Odile`s remnant low west of Baja
California. The official forecast leans heavily toward the GFS model
on Days 4 and 5 due to the expected rapid weakening of Odile. The
NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly closer to Baja
California, but not as far eastward as the consensus model TCVE.

Given that the central pressure has continued to decrease, and
satellite imagery and recon data suggest that the concentric
eyewall cycle could be coming to an end, some re-strengthening
overnight during the convective maximum period is a very distinct
possibility. During the 12-36 hour time frame, interaction with the
mountainous terrain of Baja California should induce gradual
weakening. By 48 hours and beyond, rapid weakening is expected due
to sharply decreasing sea-surface temperatures and increasing
southwesterly wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the previous advisory and is close to the consensus model IVCN.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of
Odile.  In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern
Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile`s
circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United
States by early next week.   This could result in heavy rains and
life-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please see
information from your local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 21.1N 108.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 22.6N 110.1W  115 KT 135 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 24.2N 111.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 25.4N 112.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 26.5N 113.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 27.8N 115.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 28.3N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 28.5N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart





000
WTNT41 KNHC 142032
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014

Edouard has become better organized this afternoon.  The eye of the
hurricane has again made an appearance in satellite images, and
deep convection surrounding the center has increased in intensity
and coverage during the past few hours.  NOAA hurricane hunters
investigated the system this afternoon and found maximum flight-
level winds of 90 kt and SFMR winds of 68 kt.  These data and
the consensus Dvorak classifications of 4.5/77 kt at 1800 UTC,
support raising the initial wind speed to 75 kt.  Additional
strengthening seems likely during the next couple of days while the
hurricane remains over warm water and the shear lessens somewhat.
The only potential inhibiting factor is the influence of dry air
that is seen wrapping into the eastern side of the circulation.
Steady weakening is expected beyond a couple of days when the
cyclone moves over much cooler water and into a stable air mass,
which will eventually cause extratropical transition to occur in
about 5 days. Little change was made to the previous intensity
forecast, with the current forecast showing a peak intensity in
about two days followed by a steady decline after that.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward or 300/13 kt, steered by
a subtropical ridge centered to its north.  This ridge is expected
to weaken and shift eastward, and that should cause Edouard to
gradually turn toward the north during the next couple of days.  By
mid-week, Edouard is expected to become embedded in the mid-latitude
zonal flow that will cause the cyclone to turn toward the east.  The
NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the west for the next few
days, toward the latest guidance, and is similar to the previous
advisory at 96 and 120 h.

The NASA Global Hawk is currently dropping numerous dropsondes into
and around the circulation of Edouard.  These data will be useful in
analyzing the intensity and structure of the hurricane, and should
help the models better initialize the cyclone and its environment.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 25.4N  52.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 26.4N  53.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 27.8N  55.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 29.3N  56.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 31.2N  56.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 35.9N  53.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 40.1N  45.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 41.0N  37.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi





000
WTNT41 KNHC 142032
TCDAT1

HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014
500 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014

Edouard has become better organized this afternoon.  The eye of the
hurricane has again made an appearance in satellite images, and
deep convection surrounding the center has increased in intensity
and coverage during the past few hours.  NOAA hurricane hunters
investigated the system this afternoon and found maximum flight-
level winds of 90 kt and SFMR winds of 68 kt.  These data and
the consensus Dvorak classifications of 4.5/77 kt at 1800 UTC,
support raising the initial wind speed to 75 kt.  Additional
strengthening seems likely during the next couple of days while the
hurricane remains over warm water and the shear lessens somewhat.
The only potential inhibiting factor is the influence of dry air
that is seen wrapping into the eastern side of the circulation.
Steady weakening is expected beyond a couple of days when the
cyclone moves over much cooler water and into a stable air mass,
which will eventually cause extratropical transition to occur in
about 5 days. Little change was made to the previous intensity
forecast, with the current forecast showing a peak intensity in
about two days followed by a steady decline after that.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward or 300/13 kt, steered by
a subtropical ridge centered to its north.  This ridge is expected
to weaken and shift eastward, and that should cause Edouard to
gradually turn toward the north during the next couple of days.  By
mid-week, Edouard is expected to become embedded in the mid-latitude
zonal flow that will cause the cyclone to turn toward the east.  The
NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the west for the next few
days, toward the latest guidance, and is similar to the previous
advisory at 96 and 120 h.

The NASA Global Hawk is currently dropping numerous dropsondes into
and around the circulation of Edouard.  These data will be useful in
analyzing the intensity and structure of the hurricane, and should
help the models better initialize the cyclone and its environment.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 25.4N  52.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 26.4N  53.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 27.8N  55.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 29.3N  56.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 31.2N  56.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 35.9N  53.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 40.1N  45.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 41.0N  37.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi






000
WTPZ41 KNHC 142031
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

The low-level center of the depression has become easier to locate
this afternoon, since it is now partially exposed on the east side
of the deep convection.  This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to
about 25 kt of easterly shear.  The initial intensity is held at 30
kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak classifications and a
partial ASCAT pass around 1730 UTC.

The depression is moving east-northeastward at about 7 kt while
continuing to be drawn into the large circulation of major Hurricane
Odile.  A turn toward the northeast and then the north-northeast is
expected during the next 24 hours before the system opens up into a
trough.  Little change in strength is expected before dissipation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 15.6N 113.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 17.2N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 20.8N 110.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi






000
WTPZ41 KNHC 142031
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

The low-level center of the depression has become easier to locate
this afternoon, since it is now partially exposed on the east side
of the deep convection.  This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to
about 25 kt of easterly shear.  The initial intensity is held at 30
kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak classifications and a
partial ASCAT pass around 1730 UTC.

The depression is moving east-northeastward at about 7 kt while
continuing to be drawn into the large circulation of major Hurricane
Odile.  A turn toward the northeast and then the north-northeast is
expected during the next 24 hours before the system opens up into a
trough.  Little change in strength is expected before dissipation.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 15.6N 113.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 17.2N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 20.8N 110.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi





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