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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 022050
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014

Satellite images suggest that Norbert has become a little better
organized during the day since the center is no longer partially
exposed and banding features have become somewhat better defined.
Intensity estimates, however, are about the same as 6 hours ago, so
the wind speed is kept at 35 kt.  Except for moderate northeasterly
shear, environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening
for the next couple of days.  Intensity guidance is a bit higher
than 6 hours ago, with the HWRF now calling for Norbert to become a
hurricane.  The new NHC forecast will follow the trend of the
guidance and shows a higher peak intensity than the last one,
between the intensity consensus and the Florida State Superensemble.

Norbert has turned northward and has slowed, with an initial motion
of about 360/8. The leftward turn should continue overnight, with a
west-northwestward track expected in about 24 hours as Norbert comes
under the influence of a mid-level high over Mexico. This high
weakens somewhat in a couple of days, which could then force Norbert
on a more northwestward track.  While the bulk of the guidance still
shows the center of Norbert passing south of the Baja California
peninsula, there has been a northward trend noted in much of the
guidance.  The NHC forecast is adjusted to the north and now lies
north of the model consensus, but is still south of the latest ECMWF
forecast.

The new NHC track forecast suggests an increasing chance of
tropical-storm-force winds in southern Baja California Sur, and a
tropical storm watch has been issued for the extreme southern part
of the state.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 18.5N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 19.4N 107.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 20.5N 109.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 21.1N 110.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 22.6N 112.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 23.6N 114.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 24.0N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake






000
WTPZ44 KNHC 022050
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014

Satellite images suggest that Norbert has become a little better
organized during the day since the center is no longer partially
exposed and banding features have become somewhat better defined.
Intensity estimates, however, are about the same as 6 hours ago, so
the wind speed is kept at 35 kt.  Except for moderate northeasterly
shear, environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening
for the next couple of days.  Intensity guidance is a bit higher
than 6 hours ago, with the HWRF now calling for Norbert to become a
hurricane.  The new NHC forecast will follow the trend of the
guidance and shows a higher peak intensity than the last one,
between the intensity consensus and the Florida State Superensemble.

Norbert has turned northward and has slowed, with an initial motion
of about 360/8. The leftward turn should continue overnight, with a
west-northwestward track expected in about 24 hours as Norbert comes
under the influence of a mid-level high over Mexico. This high
weakens somewhat in a couple of days, which could then force Norbert
on a more northwestward track.  While the bulk of the guidance still
shows the center of Norbert passing south of the Baja California
peninsula, there has been a northward trend noted in much of the
guidance.  The NHC forecast is adjusted to the north and now lies
north of the model consensus, but is still south of the latest ECMWF
forecast.

The new NHC track forecast suggests an increasing chance of
tropical-storm-force winds in southern Baja California Sur, and a
tropical storm watch has been issued for the extreme southern part
of the state.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 18.5N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 19.4N 107.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 20.5N 109.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 21.1N 110.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 22.6N 112.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 23.6N 114.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 24.0N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake





000
WTNT45 KNHC 022045
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

Tracking the center of Dolly this afternoon has been, to say the
least, challenging.  Aircraft and scatterometer wind data show that
the center of the storm reformed to the south of the previous track
and nearer to the middle of the deep convection.  Flight-level and
SFMR observations support an initial intensity of about 40 kt.
Since the center is expected to move inland in less than 12 hours,
no significant change in strength is likely before landfall.  Once
inland, Dolly should weaken fairly rapidly over the mountains of
northeastern Mexico and the system could dissipate even sooner than
indicated by the NHC forecast.

With the center relocation, it is extremely difficult to estimate
the initial motion, but my best guess is 270/10 kt.  Despite the
complex small-scale motions, the large-scale steering pattern
remains roughly the same.  A mid-tropospheric ridge near the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast should drive Dolly in a generally
westward direction over the next day or two.  The official track
forecast has been shifted southward due to the center reformation.
This lies about in the middle of the track guidance model suite.

The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
locations.  These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain.  This threat will
continue even after the center moves inland.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 22.0N  97.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 22.0N  98.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  03/1800Z 22.0N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch





000
WTNT45 KNHC 022045
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
400 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

Tracking the center of Dolly this afternoon has been, to say the
least, challenging.  Aircraft and scatterometer wind data show that
the center of the storm reformed to the south of the previous track
and nearer to the middle of the deep convection.  Flight-level and
SFMR observations support an initial intensity of about 40 kt.
Since the center is expected to move inland in less than 12 hours,
no significant change in strength is likely before landfall.  Once
inland, Dolly should weaken fairly rapidly over the mountains of
northeastern Mexico and the system could dissipate even sooner than
indicated by the NHC forecast.

With the center relocation, it is extremely difficult to estimate
the initial motion, but my best guess is 270/10 kt.  Despite the
complex small-scale motions, the large-scale steering pattern
remains roughly the same.  A mid-tropospheric ridge near the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast should drive Dolly in a generally
westward direction over the next day or two.  The official track
forecast has been shifted southward due to the center reformation.
This lies about in the middle of the track guidance model suite.

The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few
locations.  These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain.  This threat will
continue even after the center moves inland.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 22.0N  97.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 22.0N  98.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  03/1800Z 22.0N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch






000
WTPZ44 KNHC 021446
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014

The area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest
of Manzanillo now has enough organized convection to be considered a
tropical cyclone.  Although moderate northeasterly shear is present,
banding features are in the southern semicircle of the cyclone along
with bursts of convection near the center.  The initial wind speed
is set to 35 kt in accordance with earlier ASCAT data.

Norbert has been moving toward the north-northeast or 020/12.
Almost all of the guidance show Norbert turning sharply northward
and west-northwestward within 24 hours due to the cyclone leaving
the ITCZ and becoming steered by a mid-level high over Mexico.  The
NHC prediction during this time is on the right side of the guidance
envelope, mostly because of the initial motion.  After that time,
there is some uncertainty in the strength of the ridge over
northwestern Mexico, which causes some spread in the model tracks of
Norbert while it approaches the southern Baja California peninsula.
While the NHC forecast is close to the model consensus after 24
hours, it would not be surprising to see later forecasts be
adjusted a bit to the north at longer range, given model trends.

The environment near Norbert seems mostly favorable for
strengthening during the next few days with the cyclone forecast
over warm waters with moderate shear.  Given this environment, it
is a little surprising that none of the more reliable models makes
Norbert a hurricane.  Since there is some possibility of land
interaction and higher shear, the NHC prediction will be a little
above the model consensus, but below the highest guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 17.5N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 18.6N 107.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 19.3N 108.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 19.6N 109.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 20.1N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 21.8N 112.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 23.0N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 23.5N 117.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake






000
WTPZ44 KNHC 021446
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014

The area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest
of Manzanillo now has enough organized convection to be considered a
tropical cyclone.  Although moderate northeasterly shear is present,
banding features are in the southern semicircle of the cyclone along
with bursts of convection near the center.  The initial wind speed
is set to 35 kt in accordance with earlier ASCAT data.

Norbert has been moving toward the north-northeast or 020/12.
Almost all of the guidance show Norbert turning sharply northward
and west-northwestward within 24 hours due to the cyclone leaving
the ITCZ and becoming steered by a mid-level high over Mexico.  The
NHC prediction during this time is on the right side of the guidance
envelope, mostly because of the initial motion.  After that time,
there is some uncertainty in the strength of the ridge over
northwestern Mexico, which causes some spread in the model tracks of
Norbert while it approaches the southern Baja California peninsula.
While the NHC forecast is close to the model consensus after 24
hours, it would not be surprising to see later forecasts be
adjusted a bit to the north at longer range, given model trends.

The environment near Norbert seems mostly favorable for
strengthening during the next few days with the cyclone forecast
over warm waters with moderate shear.  Given this environment, it
is a little surprising that none of the more reliable models makes
Norbert a hurricane.  Since there is some possibility of land
interaction and higher shear, the NHC prediction will be a little
above the model consensus, but below the highest guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 17.5N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 18.6N 107.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 19.3N 108.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 19.6N 109.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 20.1N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 21.8N 112.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 23.0N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 23.5N 117.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake





000
WTNT45 KNHC 021438
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

North-northwesterly vertical shear continues to affect the tropical
storm, and the low-level center is located near the northwestern
edge of a large mass of deep convection.  Arc clouds are also noted
to be propagating northward from the system which is indicative of
the presence of some dry air at mid levels.  Based on observations
from the aircraft mission from earlier this morning, the current
intensity is held at 45 kt, which is a little above the latest
Dvorak estimates.  Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into
Dolly is scheduled in a few hours to check the intensity.  Since the
system has been able to intensify overnight in spite of the shear,
some additional strengthening is certainly possible before
landfall. Weakening after the center moves inland could be more
rapid than indicated here, due to the mountainous terrain of
northeastern Mexico.

The motion has been somewhat faster than earlier estimates and is
now near 300/14 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the north of Dolly should
cause a continued west-northwestward motion for the next 24 hours
or so and, based on the faster initial motion, the center is likely
to cross the coast somewhat earlier than indicated in previous
advisories.  The current official track forecast is a little ahead
of the model guidance but still shows a decrease in forward speed
through 36 hours.

The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with
precipitation totals possibly approaching 10 inches in a few
locations.  These rains will likely cause flash flooding and
mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain.  This threat will
continue even after the center moves inland.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 23.4N  96.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 24.0N  97.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 24.5N  99.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/0000Z 24.8N 100.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch





000
WTNT45 KNHC 020845
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
cyclone early this morning found 925 mb flight-level winds of 50-53
kt in the northeast quadrant and adjusted SFMR winds of at least 40
kt.  In addition, two ASCAT overpasses at 0313 UTC and 0406 UTC
indicated surface winds of 40-41 kt in the eastern quadrant. Based
on these wind data, the intensity has been increased to 40 kt,
making the cyclone the fourth tropical storm of the 2014 Atlantic
hurricane season. These wind data also required the initial
position to be relocated about 60 nmi north of the previous track.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 305/12 kt, which is
based on a blend of passive microwave, scatterometer, and
conventional satellite fix data. Other than the northward relocation
of the center position, the forecast track reasoning remains
unchanged from the previous advisories. The tropical storm is
expected to gradually turn more toward the west-northwest as Dolly
skirts along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level ridge that
is located across most of the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern
United States. Landfall along the northeastern coast of Mexico is
expected in about 24 hours, followed by dissipation in 48 hours
over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. The
NHC forecast track is similar to the consensus model TVCA, and lies
roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope.

About 20 kt of north-northwesterly vertical shear is affecting
Dolly, which has resulted in most of the convection being displaced
well to the south and east of the exposed low-level circulation.
However, new convection has recently developed near and just to the
southeast of the center, and with the shear forecast to decrease to
about 15 kt during the next 12 hours, some additional slight
strengthening is possible before Dolly makes landfall.

The surface wind data from the reconnaissance aircraft and the
two scatterometer passes indicate that the tropical-storm-force wind
field has expanded significantly in the eastern semicircle. Since
the pressure gradient between Dolly and the large high over the
Gulf of Mexico is expected to remain quite strong for the next 36
hours or so, the Government of Mexico has extended the tropical
storm warning area northward to Barra El Mezquital. However, no
additional northward extension of the warning area appears likely
at this time.

The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall, which is likely to cause flash flooding and mud slides
over portions of eastern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 22.6N  94.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 23.1N  95.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 23.7N  97.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 24.1N  98.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart






000
WTNT45 KNHC 020845
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
cyclone early this morning found 925 mb flight-level winds of 50-53
kt in the northeast quadrant and adjusted SFMR winds of at least 40
kt.  In addition, two ASCAT overpasses at 0313 UTC and 0406 UTC
indicated surface winds of 40-41 kt in the eastern quadrant. Based
on these wind data, the intensity has been increased to 40 kt,
making the cyclone the fourth tropical storm of the 2014 Atlantic
hurricane season. These wind data also required the initial
position to be relocated about 60 nmi north of the previous track.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 305/12 kt, which is
based on a blend of passive microwave, scatterometer, and
conventional satellite fix data. Other than the northward relocation
of the center position, the forecast track reasoning remains
unchanged from the previous advisories. The tropical storm is
expected to gradually turn more toward the west-northwest as Dolly
skirts along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level ridge that
is located across most of the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern
United States. Landfall along the northeastern coast of Mexico is
expected in about 24 hours, followed by dissipation in 48 hours
over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. The
NHC forecast track is similar to the consensus model TVCA, and lies
roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope.

About 20 kt of north-northwesterly vertical shear is affecting
Dolly, which has resulted in most of the convection being displaced
well to the south and east of the exposed low-level circulation.
However, new convection has recently developed near and just to the
southeast of the center, and with the shear forecast to decrease to
about 15 kt during the next 12 hours, some additional slight
strengthening is possible before Dolly makes landfall.

The surface wind data from the reconnaissance aircraft and the
two scatterometer passes indicate that the tropical-storm-force wind
field has expanded significantly in the eastern semicircle. Since
the pressure gradient between Dolly and the large high over the
Gulf of Mexico is expected to remain quite strong for the next 36
hours or so, the Government of Mexico has extended the tropical
storm warning area northward to Barra El Mezquital. However, no
additional northward extension of the warning area appears likely
at this time.

The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall, which is likely to cause flash flooding and mud slides
over portions of eastern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 22.6N  94.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 23.1N  95.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 23.7N  97.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 24.1N  98.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart





000
WTNT45 KNHC 020236
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

The depression appears to be gradually organizing this evening as
deep convection has developed over the eastern portion of the large
circulation.  Last-light visible satellite pictures suggested that
the center of the depression has likely reformed farther north,
which is not surprising given that the depression is still in its
formative stage.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the depression in a few hours, and this
should assist in determining the center position overnight.  Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial wind speed of
25 kt.

Although the depression is forecast to strengthen some on Tuesday,
moderate northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air are likely to
inhibit significant intensification before landfall.  None of the
reliable intensity models show much strengthening and the NHC
forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory.

The somewhat uncertain initial motion is 310/9 kt.  The dynamical
model guidance indicate that the depression will turn west-
northwestward on Tuesday to the south of a mid-level ridge along the
northern Gulf of Mexico coast.  The guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario and the NHC track is close to the middle of the
guidance envelope.  The updated NHC forecast track is slightly north
of the previous advisory due to the more northward initial position.
Once inland, the cyclone is forecast to quickly dissipate over the
mountains of eastern Mexico.

The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall, which is likely to cause flash-flooding and mud slides
over portions of eastern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 21.0N  93.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 21.7N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 22.3N  96.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 22.7N  98.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown






000
WTNT45 KNHC 020236
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

The depression appears to be gradually organizing this evening as
deep convection has developed over the eastern portion of the large
circulation.  Last-light visible satellite pictures suggested that
the center of the depression has likely reformed farther north,
which is not surprising given that the depression is still in its
formative stage.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the depression in a few hours, and this
should assist in determining the center position overnight.  Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial wind speed of
25 kt.

Although the depression is forecast to strengthen some on Tuesday,
moderate northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air are likely to
inhibit significant intensification before landfall.  None of the
reliable intensity models show much strengthening and the NHC
forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory.

The somewhat uncertain initial motion is 310/9 kt.  The dynamical
model guidance indicate that the depression will turn west-
northwestward on Tuesday to the south of a mid-level ridge along the
northern Gulf of Mexico coast.  The guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario and the NHC track is close to the middle of the
guidance envelope.  The updated NHC forecast track is slightly north
of the previous advisory due to the more northward initial position.
Once inland, the cyclone is forecast to quickly dissipate over the
mountains of eastern Mexico.

The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall, which is likely to cause flash-flooding and mud slides
over portions of eastern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 21.0N  93.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 21.7N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 22.3N  96.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 22.7N  98.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown





000
WTNT45 KNHC 012036
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
400 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
low pressure area over the southwest Gulf of Mexico found a
well-defined center of circulation.  The system has a curved band of
deep convection that wraps around the southern and eastern portions
of the circulation.  Thus the system is being designated as a
tropical depression at this time.  The maximum winds reported by the
aircraft so far support an intensity of 25 kt.  Although the
cyclone is situated over very warm waters of near 30 deg C, the
atmospheric environment is not ideal for strengthening.  Dynamical
models indicate that significant northerly to northwesterly
vertical shear should affect the tropical cyclone for the next 36
hours and this is likely to limit intensification up to landfall.
After landfall, dissipation should be quick due to the mountainous
terrain of Mexico.  The official wind speed forecast is a little
above the intensity model consensus.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or around 295/11.  The
steering scenario appears to be fairly straightforward.  The flow
to the south of a mid-level ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast should maintain a west-northwestward track for the next 36
hours, i.e. through the expected time of landfall.  The official
track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 20.1N  93.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 21.1N  94.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 21.9N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 22.4N  97.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch






000
WTNT45 KNHC 012036
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
400 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
low pressure area over the southwest Gulf of Mexico found a
well-defined center of circulation.  The system has a curved band of
deep convection that wraps around the southern and eastern portions
of the circulation.  Thus the system is being designated as a
tropical depression at this time.  The maximum winds reported by the
aircraft so far support an intensity of 25 kt.  Although the
cyclone is situated over very warm waters of near 30 deg C, the
atmospheric environment is not ideal for strengthening.  Dynamical
models indicate that significant northerly to northwesterly
vertical shear should affect the tropical cyclone for the next 36
hours and this is likely to limit intensification up to landfall.
After landfall, dissipation should be quick due to the mountainous
terrain of Mexico.  The official wind speed forecast is a little
above the intensity model consensus.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or around 295/11.  The
steering scenario appears to be fairly straightforward.  The flow
to the south of a mid-level ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast should maintain a west-northwestward track for the next 36
hours, i.e. through the expected time of landfall.  The official
track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 20.1N  93.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 21.1N  94.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 21.9N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 22.4N  97.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch





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