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000
WTNT43 KNHC 192039
TCDAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

The combined effect of sea-surface temperatures around 10C and
southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 40 kt has finally
taken its toll on Gonzalo. The upper-level circulation is tilted
more than 100 nmi to the northeast of the low-level circulation
center, and an abundance of cold-air stratocumulus clouds has
wrapped all the way around the entire low-level circulation. Gonzalo
looks like a frontal low in satellite imagery, suggesting that the
system has completed its transformation into an extratropical
cyclone. The initial intensity has been decreased to 70 kt, which is
consistent with various decay models. Only gradual weakening is
expected during the next 48 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 060/45 kt. Gonzalo has turned toward
the east-northeast, and that general motion is expected for the next
24-36 hours, after which the cyclone is forecast to slow down
considerably and turn northward and be absorbed by a larger low
pressure system north of the British Isles by 72 hours. The NHC
track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and
is near the latest forecast guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.

This is the last NHC advisory on Gonzalo.  Additional information on
this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 51.6N  41.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  20/0600Z 53.6N  31.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  20/1800Z 56.5N  15.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  21/0600Z 58.5N   1.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/1800Z 64.5N   1.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Stewart






000
WTNT43 KNHC 192039
TCDAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

The combined effect of sea-surface temperatures around 10C and
southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 40 kt has finally
taken its toll on Gonzalo. The upper-level circulation is tilted
more than 100 nmi to the northeast of the low-level circulation
center, and an abundance of cold-air stratocumulus clouds has
wrapped all the way around the entire low-level circulation. Gonzalo
looks like a frontal low in satellite imagery, suggesting that the
system has completed its transformation into an extratropical
cyclone. The initial intensity has been decreased to 70 kt, which is
consistent with various decay models. Only gradual weakening is
expected during the next 48 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 060/45 kt. Gonzalo has turned toward
the east-northeast, and that general motion is expected for the next
24-36 hours, after which the cyclone is forecast to slow down
considerably and turn northward and be absorbed by a larger low
pressure system north of the British Isles by 72 hours. The NHC
track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and
is near the latest forecast guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.

This is the last NHC advisory on Gonzalo.  Additional information on
this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 51.6N  41.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  20/0600Z 53.6N  31.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  20/1800Z 56.5N  15.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  21/0600Z 58.5N   1.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/1800Z 64.5N   1.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Stewart





000
WTNT43 KNHC 191434
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

Despite traversing across sea-surface temperatures less than 10C,
Gonzalo has been able to maintain convection near the center. A 0845
UTC AMSU overpass also revealed that Gonzalo still had a deep warm
core that extended above the 200 mb level. Oil rigs in the
southeastern quadrant have reported sustained hurricane-force winds
during the past few hours, with oil rig VEP717 reporting a sustained
wind of 85 kt more than 80 nmi from the center of Gonzalo. Since
this report originated from a height of 130 meters, the initial
intensity will remain at 75 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 055/45 kt. The global and regional
models are in good agreement on Gonzalo turning east-northeastward
during the next 12 hours or so, and then maintaining that motion
over the far north Atlantic until the cyclone dissipates in 2-3
days. The official track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF models, and is near the latest forecast guidance from the NOAA
Ocean Prediction Center.

Gonzalo is expected to become extratropical later today, and
gradually weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time,
post-tropical Gonzalo is forecast to maintain storm-force winds over
the north Atlantic until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC intensity
forecast is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 49.0N  47.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 52.0N  39.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  20/1200Z 54.5N  23.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  21/0000Z 57.0N   6.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/1200Z 62.1N   2.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart





000
WTNT43 KNHC 191434
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

Despite traversing across sea-surface temperatures less than 10C,
Gonzalo has been able to maintain convection near the center. A 0845
UTC AMSU overpass also revealed that Gonzalo still had a deep warm
core that extended above the 200 mb level. Oil rigs in the
southeastern quadrant have reported sustained hurricane-force winds
during the past few hours, with oil rig VEP717 reporting a sustained
wind of 85 kt more than 80 nmi from the center of Gonzalo. Since
this report originated from a height of 130 meters, the initial
intensity will remain at 75 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 055/45 kt. The global and regional
models are in good agreement on Gonzalo turning east-northeastward
during the next 12 hours or so, and then maintaining that motion
over the far north Atlantic until the cyclone dissipates in 2-3
days. The official track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF models, and is near the latest forecast guidance from the NOAA
Ocean Prediction Center.

Gonzalo is expected to become extratropical later today, and
gradually weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time,
post-tropical Gonzalo is forecast to maintain storm-force winds over
the north Atlantic until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC intensity
forecast is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 49.0N  47.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 52.0N  39.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  20/1200Z 54.5N  23.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  21/0000Z 57.0N   6.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/1200Z 62.1N   2.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart






000
WTNT43 KNHC 190832
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

A small CDO feature persists near the center of Gonzalo, although
cloud tops have warmed a bit recently. The initial intensity has
been nudged downward to 75 kt for this advisory, assuming some
weakening now that the cyclone is moving over SSTs of less than 15
deg C. Gonzalo is expected to become extratropical later today and
weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, post-
tropical Gonzalo is forecast to maintain an intensity of 45 kt over
the north Atlantic until the system dissipates shortly after 48
hours. The NHC intensity forecast is based on guidance from the
global models and the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

Gonzalo has accelerated over the past 6 hours and is now racing
northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 040/45 knots. The
global models are in good agreement on the cyclone accelerating
east-northeastward over the north Atlantic during the next couple of
days. The NHC forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
models through dissipation and is near the latest guidance from OPC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 46.3N  52.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 50.1N  44.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  20/0600Z 53.4N  31.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  20/1800Z 56.2N  15.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/0600Z 58.5N   2.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan






000
WTNT43 KNHC 190832
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

A small CDO feature persists near the center of Gonzalo, although
cloud tops have warmed a bit recently. The initial intensity has
been nudged downward to 75 kt for this advisory, assuming some
weakening now that the cyclone is moving over SSTs of less than 15
deg C. Gonzalo is expected to become extratropical later today and
weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, post-
tropical Gonzalo is forecast to maintain an intensity of 45 kt over
the north Atlantic until the system dissipates shortly after 48
hours. The NHC intensity forecast is based on guidance from the
global models and the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

Gonzalo has accelerated over the past 6 hours and is now racing
northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 040/45 knots. The
global models are in good agreement on the cyclone accelerating
east-northeastward over the north Atlantic during the next couple of
days. The NHC forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
models through dissipation and is near the latest guidance from OPC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 46.3N  52.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 50.1N  44.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  20/0600Z 53.4N  31.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  20/1800Z 56.2N  15.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/0600Z 58.5N   2.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan





000
WTNT43 KNHC 190250
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014


Gonzalo has been maintaining a central dense overcast feature over
the large eye feature noted in microwave satellite imagery since the
previous advisory. A 19/0116 UTC ASCAT-B high-resolution overpass
indicated 78-80 kt surface winds in the eastern quadrant about 45
nmi southeast of the center, so the intensity remains 80 kt for
this advisory, which could be a conservative estimate. The same
ASCAT pass also indicted that the wind field in the southeastern
semicircle had expanded significantly, and the respective wind radii
have been increased accordingly.

Gonzalo continues to accelerate toward the northeast and the
initial motion estimate is 040/34 kt. The latest 0000 UTC model
guidance remains tightly packed, so no significant changes were
made to the previous forecast track. Gonzalo should continue to move
northeastward and then east-northeastward in the flow between a
deep-layer trough to the west of the hurricane and a subtropical
ridge to its south. The NHC forecast track is just an update of the
previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCA.
The post-tropical portion of the forecast track was coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

Recent SST analyses and the forecast motion indicate that Gonzalo
should continue to move over a thermal ridge for a few more hours,
which should help the cyclone maintain status as a tropical
cyclone. By 12 hours, however, SSTs less than 12C and increasing
southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 30 kt should result
in Gonzalo making the transition to a strong post-tropical
extratropical cyclone.  Gradual weakening is forecast after the
transition occurs and to continue until dissipation occurs in by 72
hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows the Decay-SHIPS model
through 12 hours, and then is based on input from the Ocean
Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 42.3N  57.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 47.0N  50.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  20/0000Z 52.0N  38.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  20/1200Z 54.0N  24.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/0000Z 57.0N   8.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart






000
WTNT43 KNHC 190250
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014


Gonzalo has been maintaining a central dense overcast feature over
the large eye feature noted in microwave satellite imagery since the
previous advisory. A 19/0116 UTC ASCAT-B high-resolution overpass
indicated 78-80 kt surface winds in the eastern quadrant about 45
nmi southeast of the center, so the intensity remains 80 kt for
this advisory, which could be a conservative estimate. The same
ASCAT pass also indicted that the wind field in the southeastern
semicircle had expanded significantly, and the respective wind radii
have been increased accordingly.

Gonzalo continues to accelerate toward the northeast and the
initial motion estimate is 040/34 kt. The latest 0000 UTC model
guidance remains tightly packed, so no significant changes were
made to the previous forecast track. Gonzalo should continue to move
northeastward and then east-northeastward in the flow between a
deep-layer trough to the west of the hurricane and a subtropical
ridge to its south. The NHC forecast track is just an update of the
previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCA.
The post-tropical portion of the forecast track was coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

Recent SST analyses and the forecast motion indicate that Gonzalo
should continue to move over a thermal ridge for a few more hours,
which should help the cyclone maintain status as a tropical
cyclone. By 12 hours, however, SSTs less than 12C and increasing
southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 30 kt should result
in Gonzalo making the transition to a strong post-tropical
extratropical cyclone.  Gradual weakening is forecast after the
transition occurs and to continue until dissipation occurs in by 72
hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows the Decay-SHIPS model
through 12 hours, and then is based on input from the Ocean
Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 42.3N  57.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 47.0N  50.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  20/0000Z 52.0N  38.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  20/1200Z 54.0N  24.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/0000Z 57.0N   8.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart





000
WTPZ45 KNHC 190237
TCDEP5

REMNANTS OF TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that the
low-level circulation of Trudy has dissipated.  Thus, this will be
the last advisory on this system.  Even though the cyclone has
dissipated, the global models only move the remnants slowly
northeastward over the next couple of days.  This pattern should
continue the threat of heavy rains, resulting in flash flooding and
mudslides in portions of southern Mexico, especially near areas of
elevated terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 17.4N  98.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS OF TRUDY
 12H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake





000
WTPZ45 KNHC 190237
TCDEP5

REMNANTS OF TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that the
low-level circulation of Trudy has dissipated.  Thus, this will be
the last advisory on this system.  Even though the cyclone has
dissipated, the global models only move the remnants slowly
northeastward over the next couple of days.  This pattern should
continue the threat of heavy rains, resulting in flash flooding and
mudslides in portions of southern Mexico, especially near areas of
elevated terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 17.4N  98.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS OF TRUDY
 12H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake






000
WTPZ45 KNHC 190237
TCDEP5

REMNANTS OF TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that the
low-level circulation of Trudy has dissipated.  Thus, this will be
the last advisory on this system.  Even though the cyclone has
dissipated, the global models only move the remnants slowly
northeastward over the next couple of days.  This pattern should
continue the threat of heavy rains, resulting in flash flooding and
mudslides in portions of southern Mexico, especially near areas of
elevated terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 17.4N  98.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS OF TRUDY
 12H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake





000
WTNT43 KNHC 182041
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

After an earlier degradation of the convective cloud pattern,
Gonzalo has made a recent comeback with the cloud shield having
become more symmetrical and the eye a little better defined. The
initial intensity of 80 kt is being maintained at 80 kt based on an
1443 UTC ASCAT-A overpass which showed a peak of 77 kt in the
eastern quadrant and the improved satellite presentation. The same
overpass also indicated that the 64-, 50-, and 34-kt wind radii had
expanded, and this is indicated in the new initial wind radii.

Gonzalo is accelerating rapidly northeastward and is now moving
at a brisk 035/31 kt. The hurricane has become deeply embedded
within the strong southwesterly flow on the east side of a high
amplitude trough located over the northeastern United States
and southeastern Canada. Gonzalo is expected to move northeastward
for the next 24 hours or so and then turn east-northeastward over
the far north Atlantic on Day 2. The official forecast track is
similar to the previous advisory track, and closely follows the
consensus model TVCA. The post-tropical portion of the track
forecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

As Gonzalo continues to gain latitude, the cyclone`s wind field
should continue to expand, accompanied by only slow weakening.
Gonzalo will be moving over sub-20C SSTs by 12 hours and be under
southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 30 kt, which is
expected to result in transition to a strong post-tropical
extratropical cyclone by 24 hours. Gradual weakening is expected
after the transition occurs until dissipation occurs in about 72
hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows the Decay-SHIPS model
through 24 hours, and then is based on input from the Ocean
Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 39.3N  60.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 44.0N  54.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 49.6N  45.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  20/0600Z 52.5N  31.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  20/1800Z 55.5N  17.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart






000
WTPZ45 KNHC 182031
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Radar from Acapulco, surface observations, and satellite imagery
indicate that the circulation of Trudy is becoming disrupted by the
high terrain. While no direct measure of its intensity is available,
a reasonable spin down of the peak winds suggest about 30 kt at the
advisory time.  As the center will remain inland over high terrain
for the next day or so, Trudy should become a remnant low shortly
and then dissipate.

Trudy has been moving north-northeastward at about 5 kt, though the
initial position is quite uncertain.   The low-level steering
currents become very weak and track guidance shows little
motion during the next 24 hours or so. Thus the NHC track
forecast calls for little motion until dissipation.

Given that Trudy or its remnants are forecast to remain nearly
stationary, torrential rains are expected to continue during the
next couple of days, resulting in flash flooding and mud slides in
portions of southern Mexico, especially near areas of elevated
terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 17.2N  98.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  19/0600Z 17.3N  98.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  19/1800Z 17.3N  98.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea





000
WTPZ45 KNHC 182031
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Radar from Acapulco, surface observations, and satellite imagery
indicate that the circulation of Trudy is becoming disrupted by the
high terrain. While no direct measure of its intensity is available,
a reasonable spin down of the peak winds suggest about 30 kt at the
advisory time.  As the center will remain inland over high terrain
for the next day or so, Trudy should become a remnant low shortly
and then dissipate.

Trudy has been moving north-northeastward at about 5 kt, though the
initial position is quite uncertain.   The low-level steering
currents become very weak and track guidance shows little
motion during the next 24 hours or so. Thus the NHC track
forecast calls for little motion until dissipation.

Given that Trudy or its remnants are forecast to remain nearly
stationary, torrential rains are expected to continue during the
next couple of days, resulting in flash flooding and mud slides in
portions of southern Mexico, especially near areas of elevated
terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 17.2N  98.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  19/0600Z 17.3N  98.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  19/1800Z 17.3N  98.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea






000
WTNT43 KNHC 181456
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

Gonzalo`s convective canopy is becoming ragged and substantially
asymmetric with the cold clouds primarily seen in the northern
semicircle.  Subjective Dvorak and the objective Advanced Dvorak
Technique suggest a range from 65 to 77 kt for the maximum sustained
winds, while the CIMSS Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit estimate
indicates about 85 kt.  A blend of these gives 80 kt for the initial
intensity, a considerable drop from the previous advisory.  As
Gonzalo will be moving north of the warm Gulf Stream waters and
experiencing increasingly hostile vertical wind shear over the next
day, the hurricane should steadily weaken. In about a day,
extratropical transition should occur, consistent with the FSU
Cyclone Phase Space and SHIPS diagnostic analyses. However, rather
than getting a baroclinic kick after ET, Gonzalo is anticipated by
the global model guidance to continue weakening until dissipation in
about three days.  The NHC intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN
multi-model intensity consensus while a tropical cyclone and upon
the GFS and ECMWF global models while the system is extratropical.

Gonzalo is moving toward the north-northeast at 22 kt, as it is
being advected along in the south-southwesterlies north of the
subtropical ridge.  The system should accelerate as it gets picked
up by the core of the jet stream and becomes extratropical.  The
NHC track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered TVCN
multi-model consensus and is just slightly westward of the
previous advisory.

The initial tropical storm and hurricane-force wind radii were
analyzed to be larger than previously indicated based on a
0922Z AMSU pass, as indicated by the CIRA size analyses.

The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 36.8N  61.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 40.8N  58.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 47.0N  50.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  20/0000Z 51.3N  38.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  20/1200Z 53.5N  23.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea






000
WTNT43 KNHC 181456
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

Gonzalo`s convective canopy is becoming ragged and substantially
asymmetric with the cold clouds primarily seen in the northern
semicircle.  Subjective Dvorak and the objective Advanced Dvorak
Technique suggest a range from 65 to 77 kt for the maximum sustained
winds, while the CIMSS Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit estimate
indicates about 85 kt.  A blend of these gives 80 kt for the initial
intensity, a considerable drop from the previous advisory.  As
Gonzalo will be moving north of the warm Gulf Stream waters and
experiencing increasingly hostile vertical wind shear over the next
day, the hurricane should steadily weaken. In about a day,
extratropical transition should occur, consistent with the FSU
Cyclone Phase Space and SHIPS diagnostic analyses. However, rather
than getting a baroclinic kick after ET, Gonzalo is anticipated by
the global model guidance to continue weakening until dissipation in
about three days.  The NHC intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN
multi-model intensity consensus while a tropical cyclone and upon
the GFS and ECMWF global models while the system is extratropical.

Gonzalo is moving toward the north-northeast at 22 kt, as it is
being advected along in the south-southwesterlies north of the
subtropical ridge.  The system should accelerate as it gets picked
up by the core of the jet stream and becomes extratropical.  The
NHC track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered TVCN
multi-model consensus and is just slightly westward of the
previous advisory.

The initial tropical storm and hurricane-force wind radii were
analyzed to be larger than previously indicated based on a
0922Z AMSU pass, as indicated by the CIRA size analyses.

The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 36.8N  61.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 40.8N  58.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 47.0N  50.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  20/0000Z 51.3N  38.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  20/1200Z 53.5N  23.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea





000
WTNT43 KNHC 181456
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

Gonzalo`s convective canopy is becoming ragged and substantially
asymmetric with the cold clouds primarily seen in the northern
semicircle.  Subjective Dvorak and the objective Advanced Dvorak
Technique suggest a range from 65 to 77 kt for the maximum sustained
winds, while the CIMSS Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit estimate
indicates about 85 kt.  A blend of these gives 80 kt for the initial
intensity, a considerable drop from the previous advisory.  As
Gonzalo will be moving north of the warm Gulf Stream waters and
experiencing increasingly hostile vertical wind shear over the next
day, the hurricane should steadily weaken. In about a day,
extratropical transition should occur, consistent with the FSU
Cyclone Phase Space and SHIPS diagnostic analyses. However, rather
than getting a baroclinic kick after ET, Gonzalo is anticipated by
the global model guidance to continue weakening until dissipation in
about three days.  The NHC intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN
multi-model intensity consensus while a tropical cyclone and upon
the GFS and ECMWF global models while the system is extratropical.

Gonzalo is moving toward the north-northeast at 22 kt, as it is
being advected along in the south-southwesterlies north of the
subtropical ridge.  The system should accelerate as it gets picked
up by the core of the jet stream and becomes extratropical.  The
NHC track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered TVCN
multi-model consensus and is just slightly westward of the
previous advisory.

The initial tropical storm and hurricane-force wind radii were
analyzed to be larger than previously indicated based on a
0922Z AMSU pass, as indicated by the CIRA size analyses.

The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 36.8N  61.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 40.8N  58.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 47.0N  50.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  20/0000Z 51.3N  38.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  20/1200Z 53.5N  23.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea






000
WTNT43 KNHC 181456
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

Gonzalo`s convective canopy is becoming ragged and substantially
asymmetric with the cold clouds primarily seen in the northern
semicircle.  Subjective Dvorak and the objective Advanced Dvorak
Technique suggest a range from 65 to 77 kt for the maximum sustained
winds, while the CIMSS Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit estimate
indicates about 85 kt.  A blend of these gives 80 kt for the initial
intensity, a considerable drop from the previous advisory.  As
Gonzalo will be moving north of the warm Gulf Stream waters and
experiencing increasingly hostile vertical wind shear over the next
day, the hurricane should steadily weaken. In about a day,
extratropical transition should occur, consistent with the FSU
Cyclone Phase Space and SHIPS diagnostic analyses. However, rather
than getting a baroclinic kick after ET, Gonzalo is anticipated by
the global model guidance to continue weakening until dissipation in
about three days.  The NHC intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN
multi-model intensity consensus while a tropical cyclone and upon
the GFS and ECMWF global models while the system is extratropical.

Gonzalo is moving toward the north-northeast at 22 kt, as it is
being advected along in the south-southwesterlies north of the
subtropical ridge.  The system should accelerate as it gets picked
up by the core of the jet stream and becomes extratropical.  The
NHC track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered TVCN
multi-model consensus and is just slightly westward of the
previous advisory.

The initial tropical storm and hurricane-force wind radii were
analyzed to be larger than previously indicated based on a
0922Z AMSU pass, as indicated by the CIRA size analyses.

The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 36.8N  61.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 40.8N  58.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 47.0N  50.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  20/0000Z 51.3N  38.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  20/1200Z 53.5N  23.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea





000
WTPZ45 KNHC 181451
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Radar from Acapulco Mexico and microwave data show that the center
of Trudy crossed the coast about 60 n mi east of Acapulco around
1000 UTC this morning. Since that time, surface observations and
satellite images indicate that the circulation is becoming disrupted
by the high terrain. However, it is estimated that winds of 40 kt
are still occuring near the coast associated with the southern
portion of the circulation.

Trudy has been moving northward or 360 degrees at 4 kt. The
steering currents are very weak and track guidance shows little
motion during the next 24 hours or so. On this basis, the NHC
forecast calls for little motion.  Since Trudy is already inland
over high terrain, additional weakening is anticipated, and the
cyclone is forecast to be a remnant low by Sunday or even sooner.

Given that Trudy or its remnants are forecast to move little,
torrential rains are expected to continue during the next couple
of days, resulting in flash flooding and mud slides in portions of
southern Mexico, especially near areas of elevated terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 17.2N  98.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 12H  19/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  19/1200Z 17.5N  98.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila






000
WTPZ45 KNHC 181451
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Radar from Acapulco Mexico and microwave data show that the center
of Trudy crossed the coast about 60 n mi east of Acapulco around
1000 UTC this morning. Since that time, surface observations and
satellite images indicate that the circulation is becoming disrupted
by the high terrain. However, it is estimated that winds of 40 kt
are still occuring near the coast associated with the southern
portion of the circulation.

Trudy has been moving northward or 360 degrees at 4 kt. The
steering currents are very weak and track guidance shows little
motion during the next 24 hours or so. On this basis, the NHC
forecast calls for little motion.  Since Trudy is already inland
over high terrain, additional weakening is anticipated, and the
cyclone is forecast to be a remnant low by Sunday or even sooner.

Given that Trudy or its remnants are forecast to move little,
torrential rains are expected to continue during the next couple
of days, resulting in flash flooding and mud slides in portions of
southern Mexico, especially near areas of elevated terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 17.2N  98.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 12H  19/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  19/1200Z 17.5N  98.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila






000
WTPZ45 KNHC 181451
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Radar from Acapulco Mexico and microwave data show that the center
of Trudy crossed the coast about 60 n mi east of Acapulco around
1000 UTC this morning. Since that time, surface observations and
satellite images indicate that the circulation is becoming disrupted
by the high terrain. However, it is estimated that winds of 40 kt
are still occuring near the coast associated with the southern
portion of the circulation.

Trudy has been moving northward or 360 degrees at 4 kt. The
steering currents are very weak and track guidance shows little
motion during the next 24 hours or so. On this basis, the NHC
forecast calls for little motion.  Since Trudy is already inland
over high terrain, additional weakening is anticipated, and the
cyclone is forecast to be a remnant low by Sunday or even sooner.

Given that Trudy or its remnants are forecast to move little,
torrential rains are expected to continue during the next couple
of days, resulting in flash flooding and mud slides in portions of
southern Mexico, especially near areas of elevated terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 17.2N  98.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 12H  19/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  19/1200Z 17.5N  98.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila





000
WTPZ45 KNHC 180908
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Corrected typo in sentence referring to rapid intensification

Microwave imagery and radar data from Acapulco suggest that Trudy is
intensifying. The cyclone has recently formed an inner core, and
the nascent central dense overcast (CDO) is quickly becoming better
defined. A 10 to 15 n mi eye feature within the CDO has also closed
off and become more circular within the past few hours as seen on
radar imagery. Dvorak intensity estimates are generally increasing,
and the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt, slightly above the
latest UW-CIMSS ADT CI value. Trudy is embedded in a very moist and
light-shear environment over 30 deg C waters, all of which favor
continued intensification.  In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a
nearly 70 percent likelihood of a 30-kt increase in intensity
during the next 24 hours. The only inhibiting factor is the
cyclone`s proximity to land, which would end the current
intensification phase.  Given the current trend, the NHC intensity
forecast is increased significantly over the previous one and is
much higher than all of the available intensity guidance. A major
caveat to the forecast is that the predicted intensity could be too
low should the cyclone remain offshore longer than anticipated.

Radar imagery shows that Trudy has been drifting slowly eastward,
with a rather uncertain initial motion estimate of 080/02. The
synoptic pattern suggests that Trudy should generally be steered
very slowly toward the northeast or east around the northern
periphery of a mid-level ridge located well to the southeast during
the next day or so. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the
east of the previous one and is farther east than the HWRF and GFS
ensemble mean on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, with
landfall predicted in roughly 12 hours.

Based on the revised track and intensity forecast, the government of
Mexico has issued a hurricane watch from east of Acapulco to Laguna
de Chacahua.

It is worth emphasizing that the primary threat from this system is
will be the torrential rains, which will likely produce flash
flooding and mud slides in portions of southern Mexico during the
next few days, especially near areas of elevated terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 16.2N  98.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 16.4N  98.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  19/0600Z 16.5N  98.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  19/1800Z 16.6N  98.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain






000
WTPZ45 KNHC 180908
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Corrected typo in sentence referring to rapid intensification

Microwave imagery and radar data from Acapulco suggest that Trudy is
intensifying. The cyclone has recently formed an inner core, and
the nascent central dense overcast (CDO) is quickly becoming better
defined. A 10 to 15 n mi eye feature within the CDO has also closed
off and become more circular within the past few hours as seen on
radar imagery. Dvorak intensity estimates are generally increasing,
and the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt, slightly above the
latest UW-CIMSS ADT CI value. Trudy is embedded in a very moist and
light-shear environment over 30 deg C waters, all of which favor
continued intensification.  In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a
nearly 70 percent likelihood of a 30-kt increase in intensity
during the next 24 hours. The only inhibiting factor is the
cyclone`s proximity to land, which would end the current
intensification phase.  Given the current trend, the NHC intensity
forecast is increased significantly over the previous one and is
much higher than all of the available intensity guidance. A major
caveat to the forecast is that the predicted intensity could be too
low should the cyclone remain offshore longer than anticipated.

Radar imagery shows that Trudy has been drifting slowly eastward,
with a rather uncertain initial motion estimate of 080/02. The
synoptic pattern suggests that Trudy should generally be steered
very slowly toward the northeast or east around the northern
periphery of a mid-level ridge located well to the southeast during
the next day or so. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the
east of the previous one and is farther east than the HWRF and GFS
ensemble mean on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, with
landfall predicted in roughly 12 hours.

Based on the revised track and intensity forecast, the government of
Mexico has issued a hurricane watch from east of Acapulco to Laguna
de Chacahua.

It is worth emphasizing that the primary threat from this system is
will be the torrential rains, which will likely produce flash
flooding and mud slides in portions of southern Mexico during the
next few days, especially near areas of elevated terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 16.2N  98.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 16.4N  98.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  19/0600Z 16.5N  98.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  19/1800Z 16.6N  98.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain





000
WTPZ45 KNHC 180846
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
200 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Microwave imagery and radar data from Acapulco suggest that Trudy is
intensifying. The cyclone has recently formed an inner core, and
the nascent central dense overcast (CDO) is quickly becoming better
defined. A 10 to 15 n mi eye feature within the CDO has also closed
off and become more circular within the past few hours as seen on
radar imagery. Dvorak intensity estimates are generally increasing,
and the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt, slightly above the
latest UW-CIMSS ADT CI value. Trudy is embedded in a very moist and
light-shear environment over 30 deg C waters, all of which favor
continued intensification.  In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a
nearly 70 0kelihood of a 30-kt increase in intensity during the
next 24 hours. The only inhibiting factor is the cyclone`s proximity
to land, which would end the current intensification phase. Given
the current trend, the NHC intensity forecast is increased
significantly over the previous one and is much higher than all of
the available intensity guidance. A major caveat to the forecast is
that the predicted intensity could be too low should the cyclone
remain offshore longer than anticipated.

Radar imagery shows that Trudy has been drifting slowly eastward,
with a rather uncertain initial motion estimate of 080/02. The
synoptic pattern suggests that Trudy should generally be steered
very slowly toward the northeast or east around the northern
periphery of a mid-level ridge located well to the southeast during
the next day or so. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the
east of the previous one and is farther east than the HWRF and GFS
ensemble mean on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, with
landfall predicted in roughly 12 hours.

Based on the revised track and intensity forecast, the government of
Mexico has issued a hurricane watch from east of Acapulco to Laguna
de Chacahua.

It is worth emphasizing that the primary threat from this system is
will be the torrential rains, which will likely produce flash
flooding and mud slides in portions of southern Mexico during the
next few days, especially near areas of elevated terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 16.2N  98.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 16.4N  98.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  19/0600Z 16.5N  98.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  19/1800Z 16.6N  98.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain





000
WTNT43 KNHC 180835
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

The eye of Gonzalo is no longer apparent in geostationary imagery,
but an enhanced area of cold cloud tops is still noted near the
center position. The initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt
based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB and a blend of the
latest ADT CI and final-T numbers. Steady weakening is forecast
during the next 24 hours while Gonzalo moves across cooler waters.
The cyclone will cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream by 24 hours
and should be extratropical shortly after that time. Slow decay is
forecast during the extratropical phase before the cyclone
dissipates in about 4 days.

The initial motion estimate is 030/19, as Gonzalo is embedded in
southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge to the southeast and a
deep-layer trough moving offshore of eastern North America. Gonzalo
should pass near or just southeast of Newfoundland in 24 to 36 hours
and then move rapidly eastward across the north Atlantic until
dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of
the previous one through 36 hours due to a westward shift in the
track guidance this cycle. After that time, the NHC forecast is
largely an update of the previous one.

The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 34.7N  63.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 38.2N  60.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 44.2N  54.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 49.7N  44.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  20/0600Z 53.0N  31.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  21/0600Z 56.0N   3.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan






000
WTNT43 KNHC 180835
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
500 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014

The eye of Gonzalo is no longer apparent in geostationary imagery,
but an enhanced area of cold cloud tops is still noted near the
center position. The initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt
based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB and a blend of the
latest ADT CI and final-T numbers. Steady weakening is forecast
during the next 24 hours while Gonzalo moves across cooler waters.
The cyclone will cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream by 24 hours
and should be extratropical shortly after that time. Slow decay is
forecast during the extratropical phase before the cyclone
dissipates in about 4 days.

The initial motion estimate is 030/19, as Gonzalo is embedded in
southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge to the southeast and a
deep-layer trough moving offshore of eastern North America. Gonzalo
should pass near or just southeast of Newfoundland in 24 to 36 hours
and then move rapidly eastward across the north Atlantic until
dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of
the previous one through 36 hours due to a westward shift in the
track guidance this cycle. After that time, the NHC forecast is
largely an update of the previous one.

The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 34.7N  63.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 38.2N  60.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 44.2N  54.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 49.7N  44.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  20/0600Z 53.0N  31.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  21/0600Z 56.0N   3.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan





000
WTNT43 KNHC 180257
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

Hurricane Gonzalo passed over the central portion of the island of
Bermuda at around 0030 UTC this evening based on Bermuda radar data,
various surface observations on the island, and pressure reports
from an amateur radio operator -- call sign VP9NI -- located in
Devonshire Parish.  The initial intensity of 95 kt is based on
recent ADT values of 97 kt.

Radar fixes indicate that Gonzalo is moving north-northeastward or
030/13 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track
forecast or reasoning based on the tightly packed NHC model
guidance. The hurricane should begin to accelerate toward the
northeast as Gonzalo becomes embedded deeper within the increasing
southwesterly flow ahead of a strong mid-latitude trough located
off of the U.S. east coast. By 36 hours, Gonzalo is expected to be
passing just to the southeast of Newfoundland as a strong
post-tropical cyclone. The official forecast track is similar to
the previous advisory and is near the consensus model TVCA.

Slow weakening is expected for the next 12 hours or so due to
gradually increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, followed by
more rapid weakening after that as Gonzalo moves over sub-24C SSTs
by 24 hours, and moves over even colder ocean tempratures after
that. Gonzalo is forecast to transition into a post-tropical
cyclone by 36 hours as it passes near or to the southeast of
Newfoundland.

The following information is provided at the request of the Bermuda
Weather Service -- damage to the old and new hospitals has been
reported, the AWOS weather sensors at the Bermuda International
Airport have been damaged due to saltwater inundation and are
inoperable, and the RCC Bermuda Radio Maritime Operations Center at
St. Georges has been damaged and is inoperable.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 32.7N  64.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 35.9N  62.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 41.2N  57.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 47.0N  49.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  20/0000Z 52.0N  39.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  21/0000Z 57.0N  11.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart





000
WTNT43 KNHC 180257
TCDAT3

HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

Hurricane Gonzalo passed over the central portion of the island of
Bermuda at around 0030 UTC this evening based on Bermuda radar data,
various surface observations on the island, and pressure reports
from an amateur radio operator -- call sign VP9NI -- located in
Devonshire Parish.  The initial intensity of 95 kt is based on
recent ADT values of 97 kt.

Radar fixes indicate that Gonzalo is moving north-northeastward or
030/13 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track
forecast or reasoning based on the tightly packed NHC model
guidance. The hurricane should begin to accelerate toward the
northeast as Gonzalo becomes embedded deeper within the increasing
southwesterly flow ahead of a strong mid-latitude trough located
off of the U.S. east coast. By 36 hours, Gonzalo is expected to be
passing just to the southeast of Newfoundland as a strong
post-tropical cyclone. The official forecast track is similar to
the previous advisory and is near the consensus model TVCA.

Slow weakening is expected for the next 12 hours or so due to
gradually increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, followed by
more rapid weakening after that as Gonzalo moves over sub-24C SSTs
by 24 hours, and moves over even colder ocean tempratures after
that. Gonzalo is forecast to transition into a post-tropical
cyclone by 36 hours as it passes near or to the southeast of
Newfoundland.

The following information is provided at the request of the Bermuda
Weather Service -- damage to the old and new hospitals has been
reported, the AWOS weather sensors at the Bermuda International
Airport have been damaged due to saltwater inundation and are
inoperable, and the RCC Bermuda Radio Maritime Operations Center at
St. Georges has been damaged and is inoperable.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 32.7N  64.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 35.9N  62.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 41.2N  57.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 47.0N  49.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  20/0000Z 52.0N  39.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  21/0000Z 57.0N  11.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart






000
WTPZ45 KNHC 180251
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

Satellite images indicate that the cyclone is becoming better
organized with very deep convection near the center and significant
bands in the southern semicircle.  Microwave satellite data and
radar data from Acapulco also confirm this trend, with some evidence
of some inner-core features forming.  Dvorak intensity estimates are
increasing, and the initial intensity is set to 35 kt, in best
agreement with the Data-T number from TAFB.  Although the
environment is quite favorable for intensification, the cyclone
doesn`t have much time before it makes landfall.  Thus, the official
forecast keeps the previous peak intensity prediction of 45 kt,
which lies on the higher side of the consensus.

Best estimate of initial motion is northward at about 4 kt.
Deep-layer southerly flow should steer Trudy generally northward
until landfall within 24 hours.  Guidance has trended a little
slower after 12 hours, and the new NHC forecast reflects that trend.
Although there is still some chance that the cyclone lingers near
the coast, the surface circulation will probably get disrupted by
the very high terrain, so dissipation is expected in 36-48 hours.

The primary threat from this system is still expected to be heavy
rainfall that will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides in
portions of southern Mexico during the next few days, especially
near areas of elevated terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 16.0N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 16.5N  99.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 16.8N  99.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  19/1200Z 17.0N  99.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake






000
WTPZ45 KNHC 180251
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

Satellite images indicate that the cyclone is becoming better
organized with very deep convection near the center and significant
bands in the southern semicircle.  Microwave satellite data and
radar data from Acapulco also confirm this trend, with some evidence
of some inner-core features forming.  Dvorak intensity estimates are
increasing, and the initial intensity is set to 35 kt, in best
agreement with the Data-T number from TAFB.  Although the
environment is quite favorable for intensification, the cyclone
doesn`t have much time before it makes landfall.  Thus, the official
forecast keeps the previous peak intensity prediction of 45 kt,
which lies on the higher side of the consensus.

Best estimate of initial motion is northward at about 4 kt.
Deep-layer southerly flow should steer Trudy generally northward
until landfall within 24 hours.  Guidance has trended a little
slower after 12 hours, and the new NHC forecast reflects that trend.
Although there is still some chance that the cyclone lingers near
the coast, the surface circulation will probably get disrupted by
the very high terrain, so dissipation is expected in 36-48 hours.

The primary threat from this system is still expected to be heavy
rainfall that will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides in
portions of southern Mexico during the next few days, especially
near areas of elevated terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 16.0N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 16.5N  99.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 16.8N  99.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  19/1200Z 17.0N  99.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake





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