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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 040847
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015

Kevin continues to produce a cluster of convection near the center
with cloud tops colder than -80C.  However, cirrus cloud motions in
infrared satellite imagery suggest that southerly vertical wind
shear is increasing over the cyclone, and an AMSU overpass at 0458
UTC suggests the low-level center is near the southern edge of the
convection.  The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend
of intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMSS satellite
consensus technique.

The initial motion is 360/7.  Kevin should move generally northward
for the next 12-24 hours.  After that time, the dynamical guidance
suggests that the top and the bottom of the cyclone will part
company, with the mid- to upper-level center continuing northward
and the low-level center turning northwestward and then
west-northwestward. The new forecast track is similar to the
previous track through 48 hours and lies near the various consensus
models.  After that time, it is nudged a little northward due to a
northward shift in the track guidance.

The forecast track takes Kevin over decreasing sea surface
temperatures in an environment of increasing shear.  This
combination should cause steady weakening after 12 hours, with Kevin
forecast to weaken to a depression in about 36 hours an to
degenerate to a remnant low shortly thereafter.  The new intensity
forecast is in best agreement with the intensity consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 20.2N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 21.2N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 22.2N 116.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 22.9N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 23.4N 117.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0600Z 24.0N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven





000
WTNT41 KNHC 040844
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 AM AST FRI SEP 04 2015

Fred continues to produce bursts of deep convection near and east
of the center despite being affected by at least 30 kt of westerly
vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment.  Various subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates range between 30 and 45
kt, and based on these data the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

Fred has continued to turn a little to the left and the initial
motion is now 275/9.  The cyclone or its remnants is expected to
recurve between the subtropical ridge to the east and a deep-layer
trough to the west during the forecast period.  While the track
guidance agrees with this scenario, there remain some difference in
the speed after recurvature between the slower GFS and the faster
ECMWF and UKMET. The new forecast track is an update of the previous
track with a small nudge to the east after 72 hours, and it splits
the difference between the faster and slower track guidance
mentioned above.

It may sound like a broken record, but Fred is expected to remain
in an environment of strong shear and dry air for the next 36-48
hours.  This should cause the system the degenerate into a remnant
low within 24 hours.  The dynamical models suggests that the shear
should decrease after 48 hours, although there is poor agreement
between them as to what the upper-level wind pattern will be near
Fred.  The GFS, UKMET, and Canadian models forecast Fred or its
remnants to intensify during that time, while the ECMWF and NAVGEM
models show little intensification.  Based on these forecasts and
the statistical guidance, the intensity forecast calls for Fred to
regain tropical cyclone status at around 96 hours, albeit with a
considerable amount of uncertainty.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 22.1N  37.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 22.3N  38.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 22.6N  40.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1800Z 23.2N  41.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0600Z 24.1N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0600Z 27.0N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z 29.5N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H  09/0600Z 32.0N  36.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Beven





000
WTNT41 KNHC 040844
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 AM AST FRI SEP 04 2015

Fred continues to produce bursts of deep convection near and east
of the center despite being affected by at least 30 kt of westerly
vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment.  Various subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates range between 30 and 45
kt, and based on these data the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

Fred has continued to turn a little to the left and the initial
motion is now 275/9.  The cyclone or its remnants is expected to
recurve between the subtropical ridge to the east and a deep-layer
trough to the west during the forecast period.  While the track
guidance agrees with this scenario, there remain some difference in
the speed after recurvature between the slower GFS and the faster
ECMWF and UKMET. The new forecast track is an update of the previous
track with a small nudge to the east after 72 hours, and it splits
the difference between the faster and slower track guidance
mentioned above.

It may sound like a broken record, but Fred is expected to remain
in an environment of strong shear and dry air for the next 36-48
hours.  This should cause the system the degenerate into a remnant
low within 24 hours.  The dynamical models suggests that the shear
should decrease after 48 hours, although there is poor agreement
between them as to what the upper-level wind pattern will be near
Fred.  The GFS, UKMET, and Canadian models forecast Fred or its
remnants to intensify during that time, while the ECMWF and NAVGEM
models show little intensification.  Based on these forecasts and
the statistical guidance, the intensity forecast calls for Fred to
regain tropical cyclone status at around 96 hours, albeit with a
considerable amount of uncertainty.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 22.1N  37.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 22.3N  38.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 22.6N  40.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1800Z 23.2N  41.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0600Z 24.1N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0600Z 27.0N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z 29.5N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H  09/0600Z 32.0N  36.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Beven






000
WTNT41 KNHC 040233
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015

Deep convection has once again decreased markedly due to strong
westerly shear and marginal SSTs. The initial intensity remains 35
kt based on a large area of 30-35 kt winds seen in a recent ASCAT-B
pass. While Fred is forecast to move over gradually warmer waters,
the strong shear will continue for the next couple of days and Fred
is forecast to become a remnant low in about 24 hours. If the
remnant low survives, there is a possibility of regeneration in
about 4 days when Fred will be moving into a more favorable
environment, but this is uncertain.

The initial motion estimate is 285/10, as Fred has been moving a
little to the left of the previous forecast track. While the
overall track forecast reasoning has not changed, there is a fair
amount of spread in the guidance as to how sharply Fred will
recurve around the subtropical ridge and into the mid-latitude
westerlies. Overall, the guidance and the NHC forecast have shifted
a little to the left this cycle through 48 hours to account for the
initial position and motion. After that time, the NHC track is
largely an update of the previous one and is near the multi-model
consensus, between the faster ECMWF and UKMET and the slower GFS,
GEFS mean, and HWRF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 22.0N  36.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 22.2N  37.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 22.5N  39.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1200Z 22.9N  41.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0000Z 23.6N  42.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0000Z 26.3N  42.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0000Z 29.5N  40.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H  09/0000Z 32.0N  37.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Brennan






000
WTNT41 KNHC 040233
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015

Deep convection has once again decreased markedly due to strong
westerly shear and marginal SSTs. The initial intensity remains 35
kt based on a large area of 30-35 kt winds seen in a recent ASCAT-B
pass. While Fred is forecast to move over gradually warmer waters,
the strong shear will continue for the next couple of days and Fred
is forecast to become a remnant low in about 24 hours. If the
remnant low survives, there is a possibility of regeneration in
about 4 days when Fred will be moving into a more favorable
environment, but this is uncertain.

The initial motion estimate is 285/10, as Fred has been moving a
little to the left of the previous forecast track. While the
overall track forecast reasoning has not changed, there is a fair
amount of spread in the guidance as to how sharply Fred will
recurve around the subtropical ridge and into the mid-latitude
westerlies. Overall, the guidance and the NHC forecast have shifted
a little to the left this cycle through 48 hours to account for the
initial position and motion. After that time, the NHC track is
largely an update of the previous one and is near the multi-model
consensus, between the faster ECMWF and UKMET and the slower GFS,
GEFS mean, and HWRF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 22.0N  36.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 22.2N  37.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 22.5N  39.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1200Z 22.9N  41.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0000Z 23.6N  42.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0000Z 26.3N  42.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0000Z 29.5N  40.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H  09/0000Z 32.0N  37.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Brennan





000
WTPZ44 KNHC 040232
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
800 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2015

Intense thunderstorms have been persisting near the center of Kevin
during the past several hours, with outflow continuing especially
in the cyclone`s northern semicircle.  Microwave data also show that
the inner core of the storm is better defined than earlier today.
The initial intensity is thus increased to 50 kt, a blend of the 45
kt classification from TAFB and the 55 kt one from SAB. The cyclone
should reach its peak intensity in the next 12 hours or so while the
shear remains low-to-moderate and waters are warm. Thereafter, the
shear is forecast to strengthen and Kevin will encounter more
marginal SSTs and dry mid-level air, which should cause weakening.
The official forecast is a blend of the previous forecast and the
intensity consensus.  Degeneration into a remnant low in expected
about 3 days due to a continuation of the higher shear, low moisture
and cool water environment.

Kevin is moving a little faster tonight, estimated at 360/8.  Over
the next day or so, while the system remains vertically intact, it
should move generally northward around the southwest side of a mid-
level ridge.  Afterward, the weakening and increasingly shallow
cyclone is likely to turn toward the northwest and west and be
steered mainly by the low-level flow.  Model guidance, however, is
not in good agreement on when this leftward turn will occur, with
almost all of the guidance delaying the turn a bit longer on this
cycle, resulting in Kevin gaining more latitude.  Because Kevin has
now become a deeper cyclone, it makes sense to move the new NHC
prediction north of the previous one given that Kevin should now
take a little longer to become a more shallow cyclone.  However, the
new forecast still lies south of most of the guidance and the model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 19.7N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 20.8N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 22.0N 115.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 22.7N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 23.3N 117.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 23.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake





000
WTPZ44 KNHC 040232
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
800 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2015

Intense thunderstorms have been persisting near the center of Kevin
during the past several hours, with outflow continuing especially
in the cyclone`s northern semicircle.  Microwave data also show that
the inner core of the storm is better defined than earlier today.
The initial intensity is thus increased to 50 kt, a blend of the 45
kt classification from TAFB and the 55 kt one from SAB. The cyclone
should reach its peak intensity in the next 12 hours or so while the
shear remains low-to-moderate and waters are warm. Thereafter, the
shear is forecast to strengthen and Kevin will encounter more
marginal SSTs and dry mid-level air, which should cause weakening.
The official forecast is a blend of the previous forecast and the
intensity consensus.  Degeneration into a remnant low in expected
about 3 days due to a continuation of the higher shear, low moisture
and cool water environment.

Kevin is moving a little faster tonight, estimated at 360/8.  Over
the next day or so, while the system remains vertically intact, it
should move generally northward around the southwest side of a mid-
level ridge.  Afterward, the weakening and increasingly shallow
cyclone is likely to turn toward the northwest and west and be
steered mainly by the low-level flow.  Model guidance, however, is
not in good agreement on when this leftward turn will occur, with
almost all of the guidance delaying the turn a bit longer on this
cycle, resulting in Kevin gaining more latitude.  Because Kevin has
now become a deeper cyclone, it makes sense to move the new NHC
prediction north of the previous one given that Kevin should now
take a little longer to become a more shallow cyclone.  However, the
new forecast still lies south of most of the guidance and the model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 19.7N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 20.8N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 22.0N 115.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 22.7N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 23.3N 117.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 23.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake






000
WTPZ44 KNHC 032044
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
200 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2015

The intensity and coverage of deep convection being produced by
Kevin has been decreasing, although this may be a diurnal
fluctuation.  There are some ill-defined banding features over the
northern semicircle, and the cyclone still has some outflow over
the southern part of the circulation.  The latter is a bit
surprising, given the south-southwesterly shear over the system.
The current intensity is held at 45 kt which is consistent with the
latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  There is a narrow window of
opportunity for intensification in the short term, i.e. during the
next 12 to 24 hours.  Thereafter, the shear is forecast to increase
and the cyclone should be ingesting drier and more stable air.  The
official forecast shows slight strengthening overnight followed by
weakening and eventual degeneration into a remnant low in about 3
days.  This is very close to the latest model consensus.  Some of
the guidance, such as the SHIPS model, show an even faster weakening
than indicated here.

Recent microwave imagery has provided some good center fixes, and
the initial motion is a slightly faster 360/7.  Kevin should move
northward to northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level
subtropical anticyclone for the next day or two.  Afterward, the
weakening and increasingly shallow cyclone is likely to turn toward
the west and be steered mainly by the low-level flow.  The GFDL and
HWRF models show a much more northward track, and appear to be
unrealistic.  The official track forecast is similar to the previous
one, and close to the latest ECMWF solution.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 18.7N 115.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 19.8N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 21.2N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 22.0N 116.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 22.3N 117.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 22.5N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch





000
WTPZ44 KNHC 032044
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
200 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2015

The intensity and coverage of deep convection being produced by
Kevin has been decreasing, although this may be a diurnal
fluctuation.  There are some ill-defined banding features over the
northern semicircle, and the cyclone still has some outflow over
the southern part of the circulation.  The latter is a bit
surprising, given the south-southwesterly shear over the system.
The current intensity is held at 45 kt which is consistent with the
latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  There is a narrow window of
opportunity for intensification in the short term, i.e. during the
next 12 to 24 hours.  Thereafter, the shear is forecast to increase
and the cyclone should be ingesting drier and more stable air.  The
official forecast shows slight strengthening overnight followed by
weakening and eventual degeneration into a remnant low in about 3
days.  This is very close to the latest model consensus.  Some of
the guidance, such as the SHIPS model, show an even faster weakening
than indicated here.

Recent microwave imagery has provided some good center fixes, and
the initial motion is a slightly faster 360/7.  Kevin should move
northward to northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level
subtropical anticyclone for the next day or two.  Afterward, the
weakening and increasingly shallow cyclone is likely to turn toward
the west and be steered mainly by the low-level flow.  The GFDL and
HWRF models show a much more northward track, and appear to be
unrealistic.  The official track forecast is similar to the previous
one, and close to the latest ECMWF solution.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 18.7N 115.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 19.8N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 21.2N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 22.0N 116.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 22.3N 117.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 22.5N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch






000
WTNT41 KNHC 032033
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015

Despite the 35-kt westerly wind shear impinging on Fred, deep
convection, once again, regenerated near or over the center of the
vigorous low-level circulation this afternoon. Given the lack of
scatterometer data today, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt
based on the blend of Dvorak estimates. It will be very difficult
for Fred to survive the very strong westerly wind shear which is
forecast to continue affecting the cyclone for the next couple of
days and the NHC forecast calls for Fred to become a remnant low in
about 24 hours. By the end of the forecast period, if Fred has not
completely dissipated, the shear could be lighter. This combined
with the presence of anomalously warm waters in the North Atlantic,
could provide a very small opportunity for Fred to redevelop. The
1200 UTC global models, however, show a less favorable environment
for Fred to redevelop than in earlier runs, and perhaps the
regeneration will not materialize.

A weak to moderate ridge of high pressure over the North Atlantic
continues to steer Fred toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at
10 kt. In a couple of days, Fred or its remnants will be located on
the southwestern edge of the ridge, and will begin to move toward
the northwest and north. After 3 days, the system will recurve
toward the northeast in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC
forecast continues to be very close to the consensus of the GFS and
the ECMWF global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 22.0N  35.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 22.4N  36.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 22.7N  38.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0600Z 23.0N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1800Z 23.5N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1800Z 26.0N  43.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1800Z 29.0N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1800Z 31.0N  38.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Avila





000
WTNT41 KNHC 032033
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015

Despite the 35-kt westerly wind shear impinging on Fred, deep
convection, once again, regenerated near or over the center of the
vigorous low-level circulation this afternoon. Given the lack of
scatterometer data today, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt
based on the blend of Dvorak estimates. It will be very difficult
for Fred to survive the very strong westerly wind shear which is
forecast to continue affecting the cyclone for the next couple of
days and the NHC forecast calls for Fred to become a remnant low in
about 24 hours. By the end of the forecast period, if Fred has not
completely dissipated, the shear could be lighter. This combined
with the presence of anomalously warm waters in the North Atlantic,
could provide a very small opportunity for Fred to redevelop. The
1200 UTC global models, however, show a less favorable environment
for Fred to redevelop than in earlier runs, and perhaps the
regeneration will not materialize.

A weak to moderate ridge of high pressure over the North Atlantic
continues to steer Fred toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at
10 kt. In a couple of days, Fred or its remnants will be located on
the southwestern edge of the ridge, and will begin to move toward
the northwest and north. After 3 days, the system will recurve
toward the northeast in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC
forecast continues to be very close to the consensus of the GFS and
the ECMWF global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 22.0N  35.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 22.4N  36.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 22.7N  38.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0600Z 23.0N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1800Z 23.5N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1800Z 26.0N  43.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1800Z 29.0N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1800Z 31.0N  38.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Avila






000
WTNT41 KNHC 032033
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015

Despite the 35-kt westerly wind shear impinging on Fred, deep
convection, once again, regenerated near or over the center of the
vigorous low-level circulation this afternoon. Given the lack of
scatterometer data today, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt
based on the blend of Dvorak estimates. It will be very difficult
for Fred to survive the very strong westerly wind shear which is
forecast to continue affecting the cyclone for the next couple of
days and the NHC forecast calls for Fred to become a remnant low in
about 24 hours. By the end of the forecast period, if Fred has not
completely dissipated, the shear could be lighter. This combined
with the presence of anomalously warm waters in the North Atlantic,
could provide a very small opportunity for Fred to redevelop. The
1200 UTC global models, however, show a less favorable environment
for Fred to redevelop than in earlier runs, and perhaps the
regeneration will not materialize.

A weak to moderate ridge of high pressure over the North Atlantic
continues to steer Fred toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at
10 kt. In a couple of days, Fred or its remnants will be located on
the southwestern edge of the ridge, and will begin to move toward
the northwest and north. After 3 days, the system will recurve
toward the northeast in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC
forecast continues to be very close to the consensus of the GFS and
the ECMWF global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 22.0N  35.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 22.4N  36.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 22.7N  38.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0600Z 23.0N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1800Z 23.5N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1800Z 26.0N  43.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1800Z 29.0N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1800Z 31.0N  38.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Avila





000
WTNT41 KNHC 032033
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015

Despite the 35-kt westerly wind shear impinging on Fred, deep
convection, once again, regenerated near or over the center of the
vigorous low-level circulation this afternoon. Given the lack of
scatterometer data today, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt
based on the blend of Dvorak estimates. It will be very difficult
for Fred to survive the very strong westerly wind shear which is
forecast to continue affecting the cyclone for the next couple of
days and the NHC forecast calls for Fred to become a remnant low in
about 24 hours. By the end of the forecast period, if Fred has not
completely dissipated, the shear could be lighter. This combined
with the presence of anomalously warm waters in the North Atlantic,
could provide a very small opportunity for Fred to redevelop. The
1200 UTC global models, however, show a less favorable environment
for Fred to redevelop than in earlier runs, and perhaps the
regeneration will not materialize.

A weak to moderate ridge of high pressure over the North Atlantic
continues to steer Fred toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at
10 kt. In a couple of days, Fred or its remnants will be located on
the southwestern edge of the ridge, and will begin to move toward
the northwest and north. After 3 days, the system will recurve
toward the northeast in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC
forecast continues to be very close to the consensus of the GFS and
the ECMWF global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 22.0N  35.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 22.4N  36.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 22.7N  38.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0600Z 23.0N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1800Z 23.5N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1800Z 26.0N  43.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1800Z 29.0N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1800Z 31.0N  38.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Avila






000
WTNT41 KNHC 031434
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 AM AST THU SEP 03 2015

As anticipated, a surge of strong upper-level westerly winds removed
most of the convection from Fred overnight, and again the cyclone
consists of a very vigorous swirl of low clouds. Just like
yesterday, a few new convective cells are redeveloping to the north
of the center. Assuming that the winds are gradually decaying, the
initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. The strong upper-level
winds affecting Fred are forecast to continue creating a very
hostile environment for the cyclone. Consequently, the NHC forecast
calls for Fred to become a remnant low in about 12 to 24 hours. By
the end of the forecast period, if Fred has not dissipated, models
are showing less shear. This combined with the presence of anomalous
warm waters in the North Atlantic, will provide a small opportunity
for Fred to redevelop some as indicated in the NHC forecast.

A weak to moderate ridge of high pressure over the North Atlantic
is steering Fred toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 kt.
In a couple of days, Fred or its remnants will be located on the
southwestern edge of the ridge, and will begin to move toward the
northwest and north. After 3 days, the system will then recurve
toward the northeast around the ridge. Although most of the track
models provided this solution, the NHC forecast is very close to the
consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 21.5N  34.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 21.9N  35.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 22.3N  37.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0000Z 22.6N  38.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1200Z 23.0N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1200Z 25.0N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1200Z 27.5N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1200Z 30.5N  38.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Avila






000
WTPZ44 KNHC 031434
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
800 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2015

Kevin has been producing bursts of cold-topped convection this
morning, although banding features are limited.  The latest Dvorak
intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are at 45 kt, and this
will be used for the advisory intensity.  The storm is in an
environment of moderate south-southwesterly shear, which should
prevent significant additional strengthening.  However a bit more
intensification could occur, as indicated in the official forecast.
In a day or so, Kevin is likely to be ingesting drier and more
stable mid-level air and that, along with the shear, should lead to
a weakening trend.  The official intensity forecast is similar to
the latest intensity model consensus.

The center is difficult to locate on geostationary satellite images,
and the initial motion is an uncertain 350/5.  Over the next couple
of days, Kevin should turn toward the northwest while it moves to
the southwest of a mid-level anticyclone.  Afterwards, the weakening
and increasingly shallow cyclone should turn westward following the
low-level steering flow.  The official track forecast is nudged a
bit to the west of the previous one.  This is close to the latest
dynamical model consensus, albeit a little slower in the latter part
of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 17.9N 115.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 18.8N 115.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 19.9N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 20.9N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 21.5N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 22.1N 118.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1200Z 22.2N 120.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch





000
WTPZ44 KNHC 031434
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
800 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2015

Kevin has been producing bursts of cold-topped convection this
morning, although banding features are limited.  The latest Dvorak
intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are at 45 kt, and this
will be used for the advisory intensity.  The storm is in an
environment of moderate south-southwesterly shear, which should
prevent significant additional strengthening.  However a bit more
intensification could occur, as indicated in the official forecast.
In a day or so, Kevin is likely to be ingesting drier and more
stable mid-level air and that, along with the shear, should lead to
a weakening trend.  The official intensity forecast is similar to
the latest intensity model consensus.

The center is difficult to locate on geostationary satellite images,
and the initial motion is an uncertain 350/5.  Over the next couple
of days, Kevin should turn toward the northwest while it moves to
the southwest of a mid-level anticyclone.  Afterwards, the weakening
and increasingly shallow cyclone should turn westward following the
low-level steering flow.  The official track forecast is nudged a
bit to the west of the previous one.  This is close to the latest
dynamical model consensus, albeit a little slower in the latter part
of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 17.9N 115.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 18.8N 115.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 19.9N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 20.9N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 21.5N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 22.1N 118.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1200Z 22.2N 120.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch






000
WTNT41 KNHC 031434
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 AM AST THU SEP 03 2015

As anticipated, a surge of strong upper-level westerly winds removed
most of the convection from Fred overnight, and again the cyclone
consists of a very vigorous swirl of low clouds. Just like
yesterday, a few new convective cells are redeveloping to the north
of the center. Assuming that the winds are gradually decaying, the
initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. The strong upper-level
winds affecting Fred are forecast to continue creating a very
hostile environment for the cyclone. Consequently, the NHC forecast
calls for Fred to become a remnant low in about 12 to 24 hours. By
the end of the forecast period, if Fred has not dissipated, models
are showing less shear. This combined with the presence of anomalous
warm waters in the North Atlantic, will provide a small opportunity
for Fred to redevelop some as indicated in the NHC forecast.

A weak to moderate ridge of high pressure over the North Atlantic
is steering Fred toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 kt.
In a couple of days, Fred or its remnants will be located on the
southwestern edge of the ridge, and will begin to move toward the
northwest and north. After 3 days, the system will then recurve
toward the northeast around the ridge. Although most of the track
models provided this solution, the NHC forecast is very close to the
consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 21.5N  34.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 21.9N  35.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 22.3N  37.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0000Z 22.6N  38.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1200Z 23.0N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1200Z 25.0N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1200Z 27.5N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1200Z 30.5N  38.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Avila





000
WTNT41 KNHC 030846
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 AM AST THU SEP 03 2015

Fred has made a slight resurgence since the previous advisory with
the development of a large cluster of deep convection in the
northeastern quadrant, including a narrow band of cloud tops colder
than -80C having persisted very near the partly exposed low-level
center. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt based on a
blend of satellite intensity estimates T3.0/45 kt from TAFB, T2.0/30
kt from SAB, and T2.5/35 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT.

The initial motion estimate has slowed slightly to 295/07 kt.
Otherwise, there remains no change to the forecast track or
reasonings mentioned in previous advisory discussions. A shortwave
trough currently moving off of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast is
forecast by the global and regional models to dig east-southeastward
into the central Atlantic during the next 5 days, and gradually
erode the western portion of the Bermuda-Azores ridge. This will
allow Fred to slowly turn northwestward in 48-72 hours, and turn
northward at 96 and 120 hours. The NHC guidance is in much better
agreement on this developing scenario compared to 24 hours ago. The
new official forecast track is essentially just an extension of the
previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus models.

The GFS and ECMWF models are indicating that more than 30 kt of
westerly deep-layer vertical wind shear is affecting Fred. However,
this has not kept deep convection from redeveloping near the center,
at least for the time being. These strong shear conditions are
forecast to persist and even increase during the next 48 hours and,
when combined with increasingly drier mid-level air, should induce
gradual weakening within the next 12 hours or so. Fred is forecast
to weaken to a depression by late tonight or Friday morning, and
degenerate into a remnant low by Friday night. By 72 hours and
beyond, the remnant low is forecast to reach a more favorable
environment of warmer sea surface temperatures, decreasing shear,
and increasing moisture, which suggest that there is at least a low
probability that regeneration could occur. As a result, the official
intensity forecast continues to show a remnant low through 120 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 20.8N  33.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 21.4N  34.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 21.9N  36.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 22.2N  37.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0600Z 22.6N  39.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0600Z 24.0N  41.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0600Z 26.5N  41.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0600Z 28.8N  40.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart





000
WTPZ44 KNHC 030846
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
200 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2015

Recent ASCAT data indicate that the cyclone is producing a sizable
area of 35-kt winds, especially beneath a burst of deep convection
which has persisted during the past few hours.  The scatterometer
data also indicated that the low-level center is now embedded
beneath the southeastern edge of the convective canopy, and Dvorak
estimates are a consensus T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB. Based on
these data, the cyclone is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Kevin.
Although some southerly shear is expected to continue affecting
Kevin during the next several days, warm sea surface temperatures
and a moist environment could support just a little more
strengthening during the next 24 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast
has been adjusted slightly upward during that period and shows a
peak intensity close to the ICON intensity consensus and the Florida
State Superensemble.  After 36 hours, the shear is likely to allow
drier air to get into the circulation, leading to weakening.  Kevin
is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by day 3 and dissipate
around day 5.

With the help of the ASCAT data, the low-level center was adjusted
a tad west of where it was previously estimated, and the initial
motion estimate is 350/5 kt.  Kevin should continue northward
between a mid-level anticyclone over Mexico and a deep-layer trough
off the west coast of North America for the next 36 hours.  Once the
cyclone weakens and is no longer producing significant deep
convection, the center is expected to turn westward in the low-level
flow.  The global models appear to be in better agreement on when
this turn will occur, and the bulk of the guidance now shows a
sharper westward turn after 48 hours.  The new NHC track forecast is
therefore a bit west of the previous forecast and is close to the
TVCE dynamical consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 17.5N 115.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 18.4N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 19.6N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 20.6N 115.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 21.3N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 22.1N 117.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0600Z 22.1N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg





000
WTNT41 KNHC 030235
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015

The cluster of thunderstorm activity that developed before the
previous advisory has persisted, with cloud tops colder than -80C
seen to the northeast of the partly exposed low-level center.
Satellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the previous
advisory, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

There is little change in either the forecast guidance or the
forecast track since the last advisory.  Fred should move
west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over
the eastern Atlantic during the next 2-3 days.  After that time,
the cyclone should turn northwestward, and then northward between
the ridge and a low- to mid-level trough over the central Atlantic.
The new forecast track lies near the center of the guidance
envelope.

Fred is experiencing 25-30 kt of westerly vertical wind shear, and
the dynamical models suggest this will continue for the next 60-72
hours.  This, in combination with dry air entraining into the
cyclone, should cause it to degenerate into a remnant low in 24-36
hours, if not earlier.  After 72 hours, the remnants of Fred are
expected to reach an environment of warmer sea surface temperatures,
decreasing shear, and increasing moisture.  In theory, this could
allow the system to regenerate.  However, while the dynamical
models show the remnant low persisting through 120 hours, none of
them show any significant intensification in the more favorable
environment.  Based on this, the forecast will continue to show a
weak remnant low through 120 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 20.6N  32.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 21.2N  33.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 21.8N  35.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 22.2N  37.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0000Z 22.6N  38.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0000Z 23.5N  41.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0000Z 26.0N  42.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0000Z 28.5N  41.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven





000
WTPZ44 KNHC 030235
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
800 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2015

Bursts of convection continue to form near and north of the center
of the depression.  Southerly shear, however, continues to prevent
much organization, with the thunderstorms fading in the past hour.
The satellite classifications are the same as 6 hours ago, so the
initial intensity remains 30 kt.  I suspect this is on the
conservative side given the curvature of the low clouds and the
latest microwave images, but would prefer to wait until there is
more concrete data to support an upgrade.  The cyclone has about a
day to intensify before SSTs become more marginal and drier air
infiltrates the circulation.  Remnant low status is anticipated
by day 3 due to more hostile environmental conditions.  The NHC
wind speed forecast is similar to the previous advisory, just a bit
higher than the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be 360/6 kt.  The global models
are in good agreement on the depression moving between a mid-level
high over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough west of
the Baja California peninsula during the next few days.  The
biggest forecast challenge is predicting exactly when the cyclone
becomes a more shallow system and takes a leftward turn in response
to the low-level flow.  In general, the model guidance has trended a
bit faster with the westward turn, and the latest NHC forecast is
shifted in that direction, though still lies north of the model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 17.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 18.0N 115.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 19.2N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 20.3N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 22.3N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake






000
WTPZ44 KNHC 030235
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
800 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2015

Bursts of convection continue to form near and north of the center
of the depression.  Southerly shear, however, continues to prevent
much organization, with the thunderstorms fading in the past hour.
The satellite classifications are the same as 6 hours ago, so the
initial intensity remains 30 kt.  I suspect this is on the
conservative side given the curvature of the low clouds and the
latest microwave images, but would prefer to wait until there is
more concrete data to support an upgrade.  The cyclone has about a
day to intensify before SSTs become more marginal and drier air
infiltrates the circulation.  Remnant low status is anticipated
by day 3 due to more hostile environmental conditions.  The NHC
wind speed forecast is similar to the previous advisory, just a bit
higher than the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be 360/6 kt.  The global models
are in good agreement on the depression moving between a mid-level
high over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough west of
the Baja California peninsula during the next few days.  The
biggest forecast challenge is predicting exactly when the cyclone
becomes a more shallow system and takes a leftward turn in response
to the low-level flow.  In general, the model guidance has trended a
bit faster with the westward turn, and the latest NHC forecast is
shifted in that direction, though still lies north of the model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 17.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 18.0N 115.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 19.2N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 20.3N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 22.3N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake





000
WTNT41 KNHC 030235
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015

The cluster of thunderstorm activity that developed before the
previous advisory has persisted, with cloud tops colder than -80C
seen to the northeast of the partly exposed low-level center.
Satellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the previous
advisory, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

There is little change in either the forecast guidance or the
forecast track since the last advisory.  Fred should move
west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over
the eastern Atlantic during the next 2-3 days.  After that time,
the cyclone should turn northwestward, and then northward between
the ridge and a low- to mid-level trough over the central Atlantic.
The new forecast track lies near the center of the guidance
envelope.

Fred is experiencing 25-30 kt of westerly vertical wind shear, and
the dynamical models suggest this will continue for the next 60-72
hours.  This, in combination with dry air entraining into the
cyclone, should cause it to degenerate into a remnant low in 24-36
hours, if not earlier.  After 72 hours, the remnants of Fred are
expected to reach an environment of warmer sea surface temperatures,
decreasing shear, and increasing moisture.  In theory, this could
allow the system to regenerate.  However, while the dynamical
models show the remnant low persisting through 120 hours, none of
them show any significant intensification in the more favorable
environment.  Based on this, the forecast will continue to show a
weak remnant low through 120 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 20.6N  32.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 21.2N  33.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 21.8N  35.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 22.2N  37.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0000Z 22.6N  38.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0000Z 23.5N  41.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0000Z 26.0N  42.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0000Z 28.5N  41.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven






000
WTNT41 KNHC 022034
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015

Thunderstorm activity has redeveloped about 70 n mi north of the
center this afternoon.  Thus, the system remains a tropical cyclone
for a bit longer.  The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, partially
based on the earlier ASCAT data and an 1800 UTC Dvorak CI number of
2.5 from TAFB.  Strong westerly shear and dry mid-level air
should cause Fred to weaken and become a remnant low within the
next 12 to 24 hours.  Because Fred will remain over marginal SSTs
for the next couple of days, however, it is difficult to predict
when the system will completely lose its organized deep convection.
Near the end of the forecast period the cyclone could move into a
slightly more favorable environment, but few of the statistical or
dynamical models indicate restrengthening at this time.

The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged.  Fred should move
west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over
the eastern Atlantic during the next 2-3 days.  After that time,
the cyclone should turn northwestward, and then northward around
the western portion of a high pressure area located south of the
Azores.  The new NHC track is similar to the previous forecast and
is near the middle of the model envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 20.3N  31.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 20.7N  32.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 21.4N  34.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/0600Z 21.9N  36.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1800Z 22.4N  37.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1800Z 23.4N  40.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1800Z 25.3N  41.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1800Z 27.5N  42.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown






000
WTNT41 KNHC 022034
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015

Thunderstorm activity has redeveloped about 70 n mi north of the
center this afternoon.  Thus, the system remains a tropical cyclone
for a bit longer.  The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, partially
based on the earlier ASCAT data and an 1800 UTC Dvorak CI number of
2.5 from TAFB.  Strong westerly shear and dry mid-level air
should cause Fred to weaken and become a remnant low within the
next 12 to 24 hours.  Because Fred will remain over marginal SSTs
for the next couple of days, however, it is difficult to predict
when the system will completely lose its organized deep convection.
Near the end of the forecast period the cyclone could move into a
slightly more favorable environment, but few of the statistical or
dynamical models indicate restrengthening at this time.

The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged.  Fred should move
west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over
the eastern Atlantic during the next 2-3 days.  After that time,
the cyclone should turn northwestward, and then northward around
the western portion of a high pressure area located south of the
Azores.  The new NHC track is similar to the previous forecast and
is near the middle of the model envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 20.3N  31.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 20.7N  32.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 21.4N  34.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/0600Z 21.9N  36.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1800Z 22.4N  37.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1800Z 23.4N  40.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1800Z 25.3N  41.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1800Z 27.5N  42.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown





000
WTPZ44 KNHC 022031
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
300 PM MDT WED SEP 02 2015

Visible satellite imagery shows that the system remains a sheared
depression with the center of circulation partially exposed to
the south of the cloud mass containing the coldest cloud tops.
Convective banding is also a bit fragmented and thin to the east of
the cyclone`s surface center.  Subsequently, the initial intensity
remains at 30 kt and is based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from
TAFB and SAB.  Guidance still indicates that the depression could
become a tropical storm within the next 12-24 hours.  Afterward, the
cyclone is forecast to spin down to a remnant low by day 3 as it
moves over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable
environment.  The NHC intensity forecast is again a compromise of
the IVCN and FSSE forecasts.

The initial motion is estimated to be 360/7 kt.  The depression is
forecast to move between a mid-tropospheric high pressure system
over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough west of the
Baja California peninsula during the next 3 days.  As the tropical
cyclone degenerates into a remnant low, and the steering flow
collapses, the shallow swirl of low clouds should either drift in a
generally north-northwestward direction or meander until
dissipation.  The NHC forecast is close to the previous advisory and
is hedged toward the multi-model consensus and the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF
blend) model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 16.8N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 19.3N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 20.4N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 21.4N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 22.9N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1800Z 23.5N 115.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts






000
WTPZ44 KNHC 022031
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
300 PM MDT WED SEP 02 2015

Visible satellite imagery shows that the system remains a sheared
depression with the center of circulation partially exposed to
the south of the cloud mass containing the coldest cloud tops.
Convective banding is also a bit fragmented and thin to the east of
the cyclone`s surface center.  Subsequently, the initial intensity
remains at 30 kt and is based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from
TAFB and SAB.  Guidance still indicates that the depression could
become a tropical storm within the next 12-24 hours.  Afterward, the
cyclone is forecast to spin down to a remnant low by day 3 as it
moves over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable
environment.  The NHC intensity forecast is again a compromise of
the IVCN and FSSE forecasts.

The initial motion is estimated to be 360/7 kt.  The depression is
forecast to move between a mid-tropospheric high pressure system
over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough west of the
Baja California peninsula during the next 3 days.  As the tropical
cyclone degenerates into a remnant low, and the steering flow
collapses, the shallow swirl of low clouds should either drift in a
generally north-northwestward direction or meander until
dissipation.  The NHC forecast is close to the previous advisory and
is hedged toward the multi-model consensus and the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF
blend) model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 16.8N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 19.3N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 20.4N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 21.4N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 22.9N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1800Z 23.5N 115.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts





000
WTNT41 KNHC 021437
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2015

Fred has been without deep convection for about 12 hours and
consists of a tight swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.  The
circulation remains fairly strong and the initial wind speed is
maintained at 40 kt, which is in agreement with data from a recent
ASCAT overpass.  If organized deep convection does not return very
soon, which appears unlikely, Fred will become a post-tropical
cyclone this afternoon.  Strong westerly shear, marginal sea surface
temperatures, and dry mid-level air should cause the circulation to
gradually spin down during the next few days.  Very late in the
forecast period, the remnant low could be over slightly warmer SSTs
and in an area of lower shear.  Redevelopment appears unlikely,
however, due to a dry and stable air mass over the east-central
Atlantic.

Fred is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt.  The forecast calls
for the cyclone to continue on a west-northwestward heading over
the next 72 hours to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the
eastern Atlantic.  After that time, the remnant low is predicted to
turn turn northwestward, and then north-northwestward while it
moves around the western periphery of a low-level high pressure
area centered south of the Azores.  The new NHC track forecast is
in good agreement with the latest ECMWF, which is along the
southern edge of the model envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 19.8N  30.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 20.2N  32.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  03/1200Z 20.9N  33.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/0000Z 21.5N  35.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1200Z 21.9N  36.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1200Z 22.7N  39.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1200Z 24.2N  41.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1200Z 26.5N  42.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown





000
WTNT41 KNHC 021437
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2015

Fred has been without deep convection for about 12 hours and
consists of a tight swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.  The
circulation remains fairly strong and the initial wind speed is
maintained at 40 kt, which is in agreement with data from a recent
ASCAT overpass.  If organized deep convection does not return very
soon, which appears unlikely, Fred will become a post-tropical
cyclone this afternoon.  Strong westerly shear, marginal sea surface
temperatures, and dry mid-level air should cause the circulation to
gradually spin down during the next few days.  Very late in the
forecast period, the remnant low could be over slightly warmer SSTs
and in an area of lower shear.  Redevelopment appears unlikely,
however, due to a dry and stable air mass over the east-central
Atlantic.

Fred is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt.  The forecast calls
for the cyclone to continue on a west-northwestward heading over
the next 72 hours to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the
eastern Atlantic.  After that time, the remnant low is predicted to
turn turn northwestward, and then north-northwestward while it
moves around the western periphery of a low-level high pressure
area centered south of the Azores.  The new NHC track forecast is
in good agreement with the latest ECMWF, which is along the
southern edge of the model envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 19.8N  30.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 20.2N  32.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  03/1200Z 20.9N  33.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/0000Z 21.5N  35.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1200Z 21.9N  36.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1200Z 22.7N  39.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1200Z 24.2N  41.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1200Z 26.5N  42.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown





000
WTNT41 KNHC 021437
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2015

Fred has been without deep convection for about 12 hours and
consists of a tight swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.  The
circulation remains fairly strong and the initial wind speed is
maintained at 40 kt, which is in agreement with data from a recent
ASCAT overpass.  If organized deep convection does not return very
soon, which appears unlikely, Fred will become a post-tropical
cyclone this afternoon.  Strong westerly shear, marginal sea surface
temperatures, and dry mid-level air should cause the circulation to
gradually spin down during the next few days.  Very late in the
forecast period, the remnant low could be over slightly warmer SSTs
and in an area of lower shear.  Redevelopment appears unlikely,
however, due to a dry and stable air mass over the east-central
Atlantic.

Fred is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt.  The forecast calls
for the cyclone to continue on a west-northwestward heading over
the next 72 hours to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the
eastern Atlantic.  After that time, the remnant low is predicted to
turn turn northwestward, and then north-northwestward while it
moves around the western periphery of a low-level high pressure
area centered south of the Azores.  The new NHC track forecast is
in good agreement with the latest ECMWF, which is along the
southern edge of the model envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 19.8N  30.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 20.2N  32.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  03/1200Z 20.9N  33.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/0000Z 21.5N  35.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1200Z 21.9N  36.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1200Z 22.7N  39.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1200Z 24.2N  41.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1200Z 26.5N  42.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown






000
WTPZ44 KNHC 021436
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
800 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2015

Enhanced IR and shortwave imagery continues to depict a relatively
shapeless, asymmetric, convective mass sheared to the northeast of
the surface circulation.  Although deep convection has increased
somewhat since yesterday, objective and subjective satellite
intensity estimates still yield an initial intensity of 30 kt.  The
global models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance are
indicating a small window of opportunity during the next 24-36 hours
for some strengthening.  Through the remaining portion of the
period, weakening to a remnant low by day 3 is expected as the
cyclone enters a region of high static stability and begins to
traverse cooler sea surface temperatures.  The official
intensity forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN and FSSE
forecasts and is quite similar to the previous advisory.

A fortuitous 0849 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass helped immensely in
locating the surface center and estimating the current motion of
the depression which now appears to be northward or, 350/8 kt.  The
cyclone should continue moving in this general direction during the
next 36 hours or so.  After that time, a turn toward the
north-northeast is forecast through day 3.  By that point in time,
the tropical cyclone should degenerate into a shallow swirl of
low-level clouds and basically drift within the weak steering flow
created by an existing deep-layer trough west of the Baja California
peninsula.  The NHC forecast continues to follow closely to the
multi-model consensus and the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF blend) model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 16.2N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 17.2N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 19.6N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 20.6N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 22.1N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1200Z 23.1N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts





000
WTPZ44 KNHC 021436
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
800 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2015

Enhanced IR and shortwave imagery continues to depict a relatively
shapeless, asymmetric, convective mass sheared to the northeast of
the surface circulation.  Although deep convection has increased
somewhat since yesterday, objective and subjective satellite
intensity estimates still yield an initial intensity of 30 kt.  The
global models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance are
indicating a small window of opportunity during the next 24-36 hours
for some strengthening.  Through the remaining portion of the
period, weakening to a remnant low by day 3 is expected as the
cyclone enters a region of high static stability and begins to
traverse cooler sea surface temperatures.  The official
intensity forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN and FSSE
forecasts and is quite similar to the previous advisory.

A fortuitous 0849 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass helped immensely in
locating the surface center and estimating the current motion of
the depression which now appears to be northward or, 350/8 kt.  The
cyclone should continue moving in this general direction during the
next 36 hours or so.  After that time, a turn toward the
north-northeast is forecast through day 3.  By that point in time,
the tropical cyclone should degenerate into a shallow swirl of
low-level clouds and basically drift within the weak steering flow
created by an existing deep-layer trough west of the Baja California
peninsula.  The NHC forecast continues to follow closely to the
multi-model consensus and the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF blend) model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 16.2N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 17.2N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 19.6N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 20.6N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 22.1N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1200Z 23.1N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts






000
WTNT41 KNHC 020836
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 AM AST WED SEP 02 2015

Fred has been devoid of significant deep convection near the
center for almost 6 hours. The pronounced upper-level circulation
and associated convection is displaced at least 150 n mi to the
east of the now fully exposed low-level circulation due to strong
westerly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity of 40 kt is
based on a gradual spin down of the 45-kt ASCAT-B vortex mentioned
in the previous discussion, and a blend of 35-kt and 45-kt Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, respectively.

Now that the upper-level circulation has decoupled from the low- and
mid-level circulations, it is unlikely that Fred will restrengthen
since the cyclone will be moving over cooler SSTs of about 26 deg C,
into even stronger shear in excess of 30 kt, and also into a much
drier airmass. Cloud top temperatures in the radius of maximum
winds are only in the -10 to -20 deg C range, which suggests that
Fred`s circulation now likely only extends no higher than the 400-mb
level, if that. As a result, Fred should continue to slowly spin
down and become a depression within the next 18-24 hours, and
degenerate into a remnant low within 36 hours, if not sooner. The
NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF
models, which steadily weaken Fred, and is lower than the IVCN model
due to the GFDL model re-strengthening Fred into a 75-kt hurricane
again, which has created a high bias in the consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 295/09.  There remains no significant
change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Fred is
expected to continue moving west-northwestward for the next 72 hours
or so while it remains embedded within the trade wind flow south of
the Bermuda-Azores subtropical high. After that time, the models
continue to forecast a mid-latitude trough to dig southward over
the central Atlantic and erode the western portion of the ridge,
allowing Fred to turn slowly northwestward by 96 hours and
northward by 120 hours. The new forecast track is a tad south of
the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more southerly
initial position. The track forecast also lies along the southern
edge of the guidance envelope and is left of the TVCA consensus
model due to the more northerly track created by the much stronger
and vertically deeper GFDL model, which has strongly biased the
consensus model with a more northward and eastward track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 19.5N  30.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 20.0N  31.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 20.7N  32.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 21.2N  34.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/0600Z 21.6N  35.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0600Z 22.3N  39.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z 23.5N  41.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0600Z 25.6N  43.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart






000
WTNT41 KNHC 020836
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 AM AST WED SEP 02 2015

Fred has been devoid of significant deep convection near the
center for almost 6 hours. The pronounced upper-level circulation
and associated convection is displaced at least 150 n mi to the
east of the now fully exposed low-level circulation due to strong
westerly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity of 40 kt is
based on a gradual spin down of the 45-kt ASCAT-B vortex mentioned
in the previous discussion, and a blend of 35-kt and 45-kt Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, respectively.

Now that the upper-level circulation has decoupled from the low- and
mid-level circulations, it is unlikely that Fred will restrengthen
since the cyclone will be moving over cooler SSTs of about 26 deg C,
into even stronger shear in excess of 30 kt, and also into a much
drier airmass. Cloud top temperatures in the radius of maximum
winds are only in the -10 to -20 deg C range, which suggests that
Fred`s circulation now likely only extends no higher than the 400-mb
level, if that. As a result, Fred should continue to slowly spin
down and become a depression within the next 18-24 hours, and
degenerate into a remnant low within 36 hours, if not sooner. The
NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF
models, which steadily weaken Fred, and is lower than the IVCN model
due to the GFDL model re-strengthening Fred into a 75-kt hurricane
again, which has created a high bias in the consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 295/09.  There remains no significant
change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Fred is
expected to continue moving west-northwestward for the next 72 hours
or so while it remains embedded within the trade wind flow south of
the Bermuda-Azores subtropical high. After that time, the models
continue to forecast a mid-latitude trough to dig southward over
the central Atlantic and erode the western portion of the ridge,
allowing Fred to turn slowly northwestward by 96 hours and
northward by 120 hours. The new forecast track is a tad south of
the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more southerly
initial position. The track forecast also lies along the southern
edge of the guidance envelope and is left of the TVCA consensus
model due to the more northerly track created by the much stronger
and vertically deeper GFDL model, which has strongly biased the
consensus model with a more northward and eastward track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 19.5N  30.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 20.0N  31.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 20.7N  32.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 21.2N  34.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/0600Z 21.6N  35.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0600Z 22.3N  39.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z 23.5N  41.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0600Z 25.6N  43.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart





000
WTNT41 KNHC 020836
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 AM AST WED SEP 02 2015

Fred has been devoid of significant deep convection near the
center for almost 6 hours. The pronounced upper-level circulation
and associated convection is displaced at least 150 n mi to the
east of the now fully exposed low-level circulation due to strong
westerly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity of 40 kt is
based on a gradual spin down of the 45-kt ASCAT-B vortex mentioned
in the previous discussion, and a blend of 35-kt and 45-kt Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, respectively.

Now that the upper-level circulation has decoupled from the low- and
mid-level circulations, it is unlikely that Fred will restrengthen
since the cyclone will be moving over cooler SSTs of about 26 deg C,
into even stronger shear in excess of 30 kt, and also into a much
drier airmass. Cloud top temperatures in the radius of maximum
winds are only in the -10 to -20 deg C range, which suggests that
Fred`s circulation now likely only extends no higher than the 400-mb
level, if that. As a result, Fred should continue to slowly spin
down and become a depression within the next 18-24 hours, and
degenerate into a remnant low within 36 hours, if not sooner. The
NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF
models, which steadily weaken Fred, and is lower than the IVCN model
due to the GFDL model re-strengthening Fred into a 75-kt hurricane
again, which has created a high bias in the consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 295/09.  There remains no significant
change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Fred is
expected to continue moving west-northwestward for the next 72 hours
or so while it remains embedded within the trade wind flow south of
the Bermuda-Azores subtropical high. After that time, the models
continue to forecast a mid-latitude trough to dig southward over
the central Atlantic and erode the western portion of the ridge,
allowing Fred to turn slowly northwestward by 96 hours and
northward by 120 hours. The new forecast track is a tad south of
the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more southerly
initial position. The track forecast also lies along the southern
edge of the guidance envelope and is left of the TVCA consensus
model due to the more northerly track created by the much stronger
and vertically deeper GFDL model, which has strongly biased the
consensus model with a more northward and eastward track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 19.5N  30.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 20.0N  31.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 20.7N  32.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 21.2N  34.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/0600Z 21.6N  35.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0600Z 22.3N  39.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z 23.5N  41.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0600Z 25.6N  43.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart






000
WTNT41 KNHC 020836
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 AM AST WED SEP 02 2015

Fred has been devoid of significant deep convection near the
center for almost 6 hours. The pronounced upper-level circulation
and associated convection is displaced at least 150 n mi to the
east of the now fully exposed low-level circulation due to strong
westerly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity of 40 kt is
based on a gradual spin down of the 45-kt ASCAT-B vortex mentioned
in the previous discussion, and a blend of 35-kt and 45-kt Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, respectively.

Now that the upper-level circulation has decoupled from the low- and
mid-level circulations, it is unlikely that Fred will restrengthen
since the cyclone will be moving over cooler SSTs of about 26 deg C,
into even stronger shear in excess of 30 kt, and also into a much
drier airmass. Cloud top temperatures in the radius of maximum
winds are only in the -10 to -20 deg C range, which suggests that
Fred`s circulation now likely only extends no higher than the 400-mb
level, if that. As a result, Fred should continue to slowly spin
down and become a depression within the next 18-24 hours, and
degenerate into a remnant low within 36 hours, if not sooner. The
NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF
models, which steadily weaken Fred, and is lower than the IVCN model
due to the GFDL model re-strengthening Fred into a 75-kt hurricane
again, which has created a high bias in the consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 295/09.  There remains no significant
change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Fred is
expected to continue moving west-northwestward for the next 72 hours
or so while it remains embedded within the trade wind flow south of
the Bermuda-Azores subtropical high. After that time, the models
continue to forecast a mid-latitude trough to dig southward over
the central Atlantic and erode the western portion of the ridge,
allowing Fred to turn slowly northwestward by 96 hours and
northward by 120 hours. The new forecast track is a tad south of
the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more southerly
initial position. The track forecast also lies along the southern
edge of the guidance envelope and is left of the TVCA consensus
model due to the more northerly track created by the much stronger
and vertically deeper GFDL model, which has strongly biased the
consensus model with a more northward and eastward track.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 19.5N  30.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 20.0N  31.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 20.7N  32.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 21.2N  34.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/0600Z 21.6N  35.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0600Z 22.3N  39.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z 23.5N  41.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0600Z 25.6N  43.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart





000
WTPZ44 KNHC 020834
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
200 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2015

Deep convection has increased somewhat during the past few hours,
but it is oriented linearly north to south, displaced to the east
of the low-level center.  Unfortunately ASCAT missed the
circulation tonight, and Dvorak final-T numbers from SAB and TAFB
were steady or decreased from six hours ago.  Therefore, the
cyclone is being maintained as a 30-kt depression.

The depression is located just to the east of a sharp upper-level
trough, which is producing about 15 kt of southwesterly shear over
the cyclone.  The trough is expected to weaken soon, which should
allow the shear to decrease slightly during the next 36 hours.
However, dry mid-level air is located just to the west of the
depression, and the shear will likely not relax enough to prevent
an asymmetric convective pattern.  The new NHC intensity forecast
continues to show the possibility of the depression reaching
tropical storm strength during the next 36 hours, but the peak
intensity is a little bit lower than in the previous advisory.  An
increase in shear after 36 hours should cause deep convection to
become significantly displaced from the center, leading to the
depression degenerating to a remnant low by day 3.

Although the center has still been tough to pinpoint, the
depression appears to have turned north-northwestward with an
initial motion of 335/9 kt.  A subtropical ridge over Mexico and a
deep-layer trough west of the Baja California peninsula should
steer the depression generally northward through day 3.  Once it
becomes a shallow remnant low, it will likely meander or drift
westward in the low-level flow.  There are considerable speed
differences between the track models, presumably a result of how
soon each depicts the cyclone becoming sheared.  The updated NHC
track forecast is again a little slower than the previous one and
is close to the GFS-ECMWF model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 15.2N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 16.4N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 17.8N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 18.9N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 20.0N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 21.6N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z 22.6N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg





000
WTPZ44 KNHC 020834
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
200 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2015

Deep convection has increased somewhat during the past few hours,
but it is oriented linearly north to south, displaced to the east
of the low-level center.  Unfortunately ASCAT missed the
circulation tonight, and Dvorak final-T numbers from SAB and TAFB
were steady or decreased from six hours ago.  Therefore, the
cyclone is being maintained as a 30-kt depression.

The depression is located just to the east of a sharp upper-level
trough, which is producing about 15 kt of southwesterly shear over
the cyclone.  The trough is expected to weaken soon, which should
allow the shear to decrease slightly during the next 36 hours.
However, dry mid-level air is located just to the west of the
depression, and the shear will likely not relax enough to prevent
an asymmetric convective pattern.  The new NHC intensity forecast
continues to show the possibility of the depression reaching
tropical storm strength during the next 36 hours, but the peak
intensity is a little bit lower than in the previous advisory.  An
increase in shear after 36 hours should cause deep convection to
become significantly displaced from the center, leading to the
depression degenerating to a remnant low by day 3.

Although the center has still been tough to pinpoint, the
depression appears to have turned north-northwestward with an
initial motion of 335/9 kt.  A subtropical ridge over Mexico and a
deep-layer trough west of the Baja California peninsula should
steer the depression generally northward through day 3.  Once it
becomes a shallow remnant low, it will likely meander or drift
westward in the low-level flow.  There are considerable speed
differences between the track models, presumably a result of how
soon each depicts the cyclone becoming sheared.  The updated NHC
track forecast is again a little slower than the previous one and
is close to the GFS-ECMWF model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 15.2N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 16.4N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 17.8N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 18.9N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 20.0N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 21.6N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z 22.6N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg






000
WTPZ44 KNHC 020834
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
200 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2015

Deep convection has increased somewhat during the past few hours,
but it is oriented linearly north to south, displaced to the east
of the low-level center.  Unfortunately ASCAT missed the
circulation tonight, and Dvorak final-T numbers from SAB and TAFB
were steady or decreased from six hours ago.  Therefore, the
cyclone is being maintained as a 30-kt depression.

The depression is located just to the east of a sharp upper-level
trough, which is producing about 15 kt of southwesterly shear over
the cyclone.  The trough is expected to weaken soon, which should
allow the shear to decrease slightly during the next 36 hours.
However, dry mid-level air is located just to the west of the
depression, and the shear will likely not relax enough to prevent
an asymmetric convective pattern.  The new NHC intensity forecast
continues to show the possibility of the depression reaching
tropical storm strength during the next 36 hours, but the peak
intensity is a little bit lower than in the previous advisory.  An
increase in shear after 36 hours should cause deep convection to
become significantly displaced from the center, leading to the
depression degenerating to a remnant low by day 3.

Although the center has still been tough to pinpoint, the
depression appears to have turned north-northwestward with an
initial motion of 335/9 kt.  A subtropical ridge over Mexico and a
deep-layer trough west of the Baja California peninsula should
steer the depression generally northward through day 3.  Once it
becomes a shallow remnant low, it will likely meander or drift
westward in the low-level flow.  There are considerable speed
differences between the track models, presumably a result of how
soon each depicts the cyclone becoming sheared.  The updated NHC
track forecast is again a little slower than the previous one and
is close to the GFS-ECMWF model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 15.2N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 16.4N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 17.8N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 18.9N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 20.0N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 21.6N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z 22.6N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg





000
WTPZ44 KNHC 020834
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
200 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2015

Deep convection has increased somewhat during the past few hours,
but it is oriented linearly north to south, displaced to the east
of the low-level center.  Unfortunately ASCAT missed the
circulation tonight, and Dvorak final-T numbers from SAB and TAFB
were steady or decreased from six hours ago.  Therefore, the
cyclone is being maintained as a 30-kt depression.

The depression is located just to the east of a sharp upper-level
trough, which is producing about 15 kt of southwesterly shear over
the cyclone.  The trough is expected to weaken soon, which should
allow the shear to decrease slightly during the next 36 hours.
However, dry mid-level air is located just to the west of the
depression, and the shear will likely not relax enough to prevent
an asymmetric convective pattern.  The new NHC intensity forecast
continues to show the possibility of the depression reaching
tropical storm strength during the next 36 hours, but the peak
intensity is a little bit lower than in the previous advisory.  An
increase in shear after 36 hours should cause deep convection to
become significantly displaced from the center, leading to the
depression degenerating to a remnant low by day 3.

Although the center has still been tough to pinpoint, the
depression appears to have turned north-northwestward with an
initial motion of 335/9 kt.  A subtropical ridge over Mexico and a
deep-layer trough west of the Baja California peninsula should
steer the depression generally northward through day 3.  Once it
becomes a shallow remnant low, it will likely meander or drift
westward in the low-level flow.  There are considerable speed
differences between the track models, presumably a result of how
soon each depicts the cyclone becoming sheared.  The updated NHC
track forecast is again a little slower than the previous one and
is close to the GFS-ECMWF model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 15.2N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 16.4N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 17.8N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 18.9N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 20.0N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 21.6N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z 22.6N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg






000
WTPZ44 KNHC 020243
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
900 PM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015

The depression is no better organized than it was earlier today.
Satellite imagery shows the cyclone with a couple of loosely
organized bands without much curvature over the eastern half of
circulation.  This assymetric and disorganized cloud pattern is
indicative of southwesterly shear induced by a mid- to upper-level
tropospheric trough to the northwest of the depression. The initial
intensity estimate is 30 kt, based on a blend of the latest Dvorak
estimates.

A relative reduction in vertical shear is forecast in 24 to 36
hours, when the trough to the west of the depression shears out. All
other factors being equal at that time, this should present the
cyclone with a limited opportunity for intensification. After 48
hours, the cyclone should meet a harsh environment of very dry air
and southwesterly shear associated with an unusually deep trough
digging along the U.S. west coast.  The global models indicate that
the shear should be strong enough that the low- to mid-level
circulations separate in about 72 hours, with dissipation by day 5.
The intensity guidance has decreased across the board, and the new
intensity forecast shows less intensification but still with a peak
in 24 to 36 hours.  This new forecast, however, is higher than the
statistical-dynamical guidance.

The depression`s center is difficult to locate, but a blend of the
latest fixes and a continuity provide an initial motion estimate of
325/08.  A south-southeasterly to southerly steering flow between a
subtropical ridge over Mexico and the trough to the west should
cause the depression to gradually turn northward in 24 to 36 hours.
Once the cyclone crosses 20N, strong southwesterly flow ahead of
the amplifying western U.S. trough should cause recurvature.
However, the decoupling of the system will leave the low-level
center behind, moving slowly northeastward. By day 4, the remnant
low should drift erratically and then turn southward in the
low-level flow until dissipation.  The new track forecast is a
little slower than the previous one based on a blend of the GFS and
ECWMF model solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 14.3N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 15.7N 115.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 17.3N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 18.8N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 20.1N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 22.0N 114.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 22.8N 114.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain





000
WTNT41 KNHC 020241
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2015

The deep convection near the center of Fred has decreased during
the past few hours, with the low-level center now partially exposed
to the west of the convection.  An ASCAT-B overpass near 0000 UTC
probed the western side of the circulation and showed 40-kt winds
near the center.  Based on this, the initial intensity remains 45
kt.

The initial motion estimate is now 295/11.  There is no change to
the track forecast philosophy since the previous advisory.  Fred
should continue moving west-northwestward to the south of a low-
to mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic during the next 2 to 3
days.  Thereafter, the western portion of the ridge is expected to
weaken when a trough deepens over the central Atlantic.  This
evolution should steer Fred or its remnants generally
northwestward. There has been little change in the forecast guidance
since the last advisory.  Based on this, the new forecast track is
an update of the previous track through 72 hours and lies just north
of the consensus models.  After 72 hours, the track has been
adjusted westward, but still lies to the east of the center of the
guidance envelope as a compromise between the current guidance and
the previous forecast.

The intensity forecast philosophy remains unchanged.  Fred is over
sea surface temperatures of about 26 deg C and is about to encounter
strong westerly vertical wind shear.  In addition, the cyclone is
entraining a drier and more stable air mass.  This combination
should cause weakening over the next several days.  The new
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, and it
calls for Fred to weaken to a depression in 30 to 36 hours and
degenerate into a remnant low after 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 19.4N  29.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 19.8N  30.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 20.4N  31.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 21.0N  33.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 21.4N  34.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 22.0N  38.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0000Z 23.0N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0000Z 25.0N  43.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven






000
WTNT41 KNHC 020241
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2015

The deep convection near the center of Fred has decreased during
the past few hours, with the low-level center now partially exposed
to the west of the convection.  An ASCAT-B overpass near 0000 UTC
probed the western side of the circulation and showed 40-kt winds
near the center.  Based on this, the initial intensity remains 45
kt.

The initial motion estimate is now 295/11.  There is no change to
the track forecast philosophy since the previous advisory.  Fred
should continue moving west-northwestward to the south of a low-
to mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic during the next 2 to 3
days.  Thereafter, the western portion of the ridge is expected to
weaken when a trough deepens over the central Atlantic.  This
evolution should steer Fred or its remnants generally
northwestward. There has been little change in the forecast guidance
since the last advisory.  Based on this, the new forecast track is
an update of the previous track through 72 hours and lies just north
of the consensus models.  After 72 hours, the track has been
adjusted westward, but still lies to the east of the center of the
guidance envelope as a compromise between the current guidance and
the previous forecast.

The intensity forecast philosophy remains unchanged.  Fred is over
sea surface temperatures of about 26 deg C and is about to encounter
strong westerly vertical wind shear.  In addition, the cyclone is
entraining a drier and more stable air mass.  This combination
should cause weakening over the next several days.  The new
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, and it
calls for Fred to weaken to a depression in 30 to 36 hours and
degenerate into a remnant low after 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 19.4N  29.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 19.8N  30.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 20.4N  31.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 21.0N  33.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 21.4N  34.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 22.0N  38.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0000Z 23.0N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0000Z 25.0N  43.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven





000
WTPZ44 KNHC 012041
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
300 PM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Conventional satellite imagery shows that the system has not become
better organized and a recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicates
that the cyclone remains at depression strength.  Therefore, the
initial intensity remains at 30 kt.  The environment is expected to
be only marginally conducive for some intensification during the
next couple of days.  An amplifying mid- to upper-level trough
situated to the northwest of the depression is forecast to produce
modest southwesterly shear during the next couple of days.  Beyond
the 48 hour period, the depression will be moving into a
significantly more stable and drier air mass which should induce a
more rapid decay of the cyclone.  The official intensity forecast is
close to the IVCN intensity consensus and the Florida State
Superensemble and is essentially an update from the previous
advisory.

The initial motion is northwestward or, 320/8 kt. The cyclone is
expected to gradually move between a mid-level high pressure system
over Mexico and the aforementioned deep-layer trough west of the
Baja California peninsula during the next 2-3 days.  Beyond the 72
hour period, the depression is expected to degenerate into a
shallow, weak, system and is likely to meander in very weak
low-level steering currents southwest of the Baja California
peninsula until dissipation.  The NHC forecast is a little bit
faster than the previous advisory and follows the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF)
consensus closely.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 13.7N 114.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 15.1N 114.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 16.8N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 18.5N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 20.1N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 22.4N 114.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 23.4N 113.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z 24.0N 113.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts






000
WTPZ44 KNHC 012041
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
300 PM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Conventional satellite imagery shows that the system has not become
better organized and a recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicates
that the cyclone remains at depression strength.  Therefore, the
initial intensity remains at 30 kt.  The environment is expected to
be only marginally conducive for some intensification during the
next couple of days.  An amplifying mid- to upper-level trough
situated to the northwest of the depression is forecast to produce
modest southwesterly shear during the next couple of days.  Beyond
the 48 hour period, the depression will be moving into a
significantly more stable and drier air mass which should induce a
more rapid decay of the cyclone.  The official intensity forecast is
close to the IVCN intensity consensus and the Florida State
Superensemble and is essentially an update from the previous
advisory.

The initial motion is northwestward or, 320/8 kt. The cyclone is
expected to gradually move between a mid-level high pressure system
over Mexico and the aforementioned deep-layer trough west of the
Baja California peninsula during the next 2-3 days.  Beyond the 72
hour period, the depression is expected to degenerate into a
shallow, weak, system and is likely to meander in very weak
low-level steering currents southwest of the Baja California
peninsula until dissipation.  The NHC forecast is a little bit
faster than the previous advisory and follows the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF)
consensus closely.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 13.7N 114.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 15.1N 114.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 16.8N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 18.5N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 20.1N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 22.4N 114.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 23.4N 113.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z 24.0N 113.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts





000
WTNT41 KNHC 012036
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2015

Fred`s weakening appears to have ceased for the moment.  Deep
convection developed just north of the center since the previous
advisory and the overall organization of the tropical cyclone has
changed little during the day.  A blend of the various Dvorak
T-numbers and the earlier ASCAT data support maintaining an initial
intensity of 45 kt.  The intensity forecast reasoning remains
unchanged from the previous forecast.  Fred will be moving into an
area of increasing southwesterly shear and a less conducive
thermodynamic environment.  This should cause the tropical cyclone
to gradually weaken during the next several days, and Fred is
expected to become a tropical depression in about 36 hours and
degenerate to a remnant low in 2 to 3 days.

The initial motion estimate is 300/10 kt. Fred should continue
moving west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge over
the eastern Atlantic during the next 2 to 3 days.  The global
models predict that the western portion of the ridge will weaken
after 72 hours when a trough deepens over the central Atlantic.
After this occurs, the remnant low should turn northwestward and
northward in the low-level southeasterly flow.  The model guidance
has shifted significantly westward this cycle, with most of the
models showing a weaker Fred moving more westward.  The NHC forecast
has been adjusted accordingly, however it lies to the north of the
model consensus after 36 hours to maintain some continuity from
the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 18.8N  28.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 19.4N  29.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 20.0N  31.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 20.6N  32.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 21.3N  34.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 22.0N  37.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1800Z 23.0N  40.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z 25.0N  42.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown






000
WTNT41 KNHC 012036
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2015

Fred`s weakening appears to have ceased for the moment.  Deep
convection developed just north of the center since the previous
advisory and the overall organization of the tropical cyclone has
changed little during the day.  A blend of the various Dvorak
T-numbers and the earlier ASCAT data support maintaining an initial
intensity of 45 kt.  The intensity forecast reasoning remains
unchanged from the previous forecast.  Fred will be moving into an
area of increasing southwesterly shear and a less conducive
thermodynamic environment.  This should cause the tropical cyclone
to gradually weaken during the next several days, and Fred is
expected to become a tropical depression in about 36 hours and
degenerate to a remnant low in 2 to 3 days.

The initial motion estimate is 300/10 kt. Fred should continue
moving west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge over
the eastern Atlantic during the next 2 to 3 days.  The global
models predict that the western portion of the ridge will weaken
after 72 hours when a trough deepens over the central Atlantic.
After this occurs, the remnant low should turn northwestward and
northward in the low-level southeasterly flow.  The model guidance
has shifted significantly westward this cycle, with most of the
models showing a weaker Fred moving more westward.  The NHC forecast
has been adjusted accordingly, however it lies to the north of the
model consensus after 36 hours to maintain some continuity from
the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 18.8N  28.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 19.4N  29.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 20.0N  31.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 20.6N  32.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 21.3N  34.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 22.0N  37.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1800Z 23.0N  40.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z 25.0N  42.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown





000
WTNT41 KNHC 012036
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2015

Fred`s weakening appears to have ceased for the moment.  Deep
convection developed just north of the center since the previous
advisory and the overall organization of the tropical cyclone has
changed little during the day.  A blend of the various Dvorak
T-numbers and the earlier ASCAT data support maintaining an initial
intensity of 45 kt.  The intensity forecast reasoning remains
unchanged from the previous forecast.  Fred will be moving into an
area of increasing southwesterly shear and a less conducive
thermodynamic environment.  This should cause the tropical cyclone
to gradually weaken during the next several days, and Fred is
expected to become a tropical depression in about 36 hours and
degenerate to a remnant low in 2 to 3 days.

The initial motion estimate is 300/10 kt. Fred should continue
moving west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge over
the eastern Atlantic during the next 2 to 3 days.  The global
models predict that the western portion of the ridge will weaken
after 72 hours when a trough deepens over the central Atlantic.
After this occurs, the remnant low should turn northwestward and
northward in the low-level southeasterly flow.  The model guidance
has shifted significantly westward this cycle, with most of the
models showing a weaker Fred moving more westward.  The NHC forecast
has been adjusted accordingly, however it lies to the north of the
model consensus after 36 hours to maintain some continuity from
the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 18.8N  28.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 19.4N  29.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 20.0N  31.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 20.6N  32.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 21.3N  34.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 22.0N  37.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1800Z 23.0N  40.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z 25.0N  42.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown





000
WTNT41 KNHC 012036
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2015

Fred`s weakening appears to have ceased for the moment.  Deep
convection developed just north of the center since the previous
advisory and the overall organization of the tropical cyclone has
changed little during the day.  A blend of the various Dvorak
T-numbers and the earlier ASCAT data support maintaining an initial
intensity of 45 kt.  The intensity forecast reasoning remains
unchanged from the previous forecast.  Fred will be moving into an
area of increasing southwesterly shear and a less conducive
thermodynamic environment.  This should cause the tropical cyclone
to gradually weaken during the next several days, and Fred is
expected to become a tropical depression in about 36 hours and
degenerate to a remnant low in 2 to 3 days.

The initial motion estimate is 300/10 kt. Fred should continue
moving west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge over
the eastern Atlantic during the next 2 to 3 days.  The global
models predict that the western portion of the ridge will weaken
after 72 hours when a trough deepens over the central Atlantic.
After this occurs, the remnant low should turn northwestward and
northward in the low-level southeasterly flow.  The model guidance
has shifted significantly westward this cycle, with most of the
models showing a weaker Fred moving more westward.  The NHC forecast
has been adjusted accordingly, however it lies to the north of the
model consensus after 36 hours to maintain some continuity from
the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 18.8N  28.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 19.4N  29.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 20.0N  31.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 20.6N  32.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 21.3N  34.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 22.0N  37.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1800Z 23.0N  40.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z 25.0N  42.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown






000
WTPZ43 KNHC 011438
TCDEP3

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Enhanced BD-Curve infrared images and an earlier microwave
overpass from the Global Precipitation Measurement satellite
continue to show the presence of a double eyewall structure with
evidence of erosion of Jimena`s inner eyewall in the southern
portion.  Since the overall presentation reveals decay of the
eyewall, the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt and is based on
a blend of the TAFB and SAB Current and Final-T numbers. Although
the sea surface temperatures are expected to remain relatively warm
ahead of the cyclone through at least day 4, and westerly shear does
not appear to affect Jimena until near the end of the period, a
marginal thermodynamic atmosphere is most likely the cause of the
weakening trend that has commenced.  The intensity forecast is
basically an update of the previous one and is weighed heavily on
the SHIPS model and the HWRF.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or, 290/9 kt.  Jimena has
made its expected turn toward the west-northwest and is now moving
toward a growing weakness in the subtropical ridge.  A subsequent
turn toward the northwestward and north-northwestward is forecast by
the 48 hour period and through the end of the period.  The NHC
forecast is nudged slightly to the right of the previous package and
sides with the TVCX multi-model consensus.

Jimena has moved into the Central Pacific basin.  Therefore, this is
the last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane Center.
Subsequent advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 16.9N 140.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 17.3N 141.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 17.8N 142.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 18.3N 142.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 18.8N 143.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 19.9N 144.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 21.5N 144.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 23.4N 146.2W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts






000
WTPZ43 KNHC 011438
TCDEP3

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Enhanced BD-Curve infrared images and an earlier microwave
overpass from the Global Precipitation Measurement satellite
continue to show the presence of a double eyewall structure with
evidence of erosion of Jimena`s inner eyewall in the southern
portion.  Since the overall presentation reveals decay of the
eyewall, the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt and is based on
a blend of the TAFB and SAB Current and Final-T numbers. Although
the sea surface temperatures are expected to remain relatively warm
ahead of the cyclone through at least day 4, and westerly shear does
not appear to affect Jimena until near the end of the period, a
marginal thermodynamic atmosphere is most likely the cause of the
weakening trend that has commenced.  The intensity forecast is
basically an update of the previous one and is weighed heavily on
the SHIPS model and the HWRF.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or, 290/9 kt.  Jimena has
made its expected turn toward the west-northwest and is now moving
toward a growing weakness in the subtropical ridge.  A subsequent
turn toward the northwestward and north-northwestward is forecast by
the 48 hour period and through the end of the period.  The NHC
forecast is nudged slightly to the right of the previous package and
sides with the TVCX multi-model consensus.

Jimena has moved into the Central Pacific basin.  Therefore, this is
the last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane Center.
Subsequent advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 16.9N 140.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 17.3N 141.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 17.8N 142.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 18.3N 142.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 18.8N 143.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 19.9N 144.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 21.5N 144.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 23.4N 146.2W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts





000
WTPZ43 KNHC 011438
TCDEP3

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Enhanced BD-Curve infrared images and an earlier microwave
overpass from the Global Precipitation Measurement satellite
continue to show the presence of a double eyewall structure with
evidence of erosion of Jimena`s inner eyewall in the southern
portion.  Since the overall presentation reveals decay of the
eyewall, the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt and is based on
a blend of the TAFB and SAB Current and Final-T numbers. Although
the sea surface temperatures are expected to remain relatively warm
ahead of the cyclone through at least day 4, and westerly shear does
not appear to affect Jimena until near the end of the period, a
marginal thermodynamic atmosphere is most likely the cause of the
weakening trend that has commenced.  The intensity forecast is
basically an update of the previous one and is weighed heavily on
the SHIPS model and the HWRF.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or, 290/9 kt.  Jimena has
made its expected turn toward the west-northwest and is now moving
toward a growing weakness in the subtropical ridge.  A subsequent
turn toward the northwestward and north-northwestward is forecast by
the 48 hour period and through the end of the period.  The NHC
forecast is nudged slightly to the right of the previous package and
sides with the TVCX multi-model consensus.

Jimena has moved into the Central Pacific basin.  Therefore, this is
the last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane Center.
Subsequent advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 16.9N 140.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 17.3N 141.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 17.8N 142.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 18.3N 142.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 18.8N 143.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 19.9N 144.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 21.5N 144.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 23.4N 146.2W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts





000
WTPZ43 KNHC 011438
TCDEP3

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015

Enhanced BD-Curve infrared images and an earlier microwave
overpass from the Global Precipitation Measurement satellite
continue to show the presence of a double eyewall structure with
evidence of erosion of Jimena`s inner eyewall in the southern
portion.  Since the overall presentation reveals decay of the
eyewall, the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt and is based on
a blend of the TAFB and SAB Current and Final-T numbers. Although
the sea surface temperatures are expected to remain relatively warm
ahead of the cyclone through at least day 4, and westerly shear does
not appear to affect Jimena until near the end of the period, a
marginal thermodynamic atmosphere is most likely the cause of the
weakening trend that has commenced.  The intensity forecast is
basically an update of the previous one and is weighed heavily on
the SHIPS model and the HWRF.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or, 290/9 kt.  Jimena has
made its expected turn toward the west-northwest and is now moving
toward a growing weakness in the subtropical ridge.  A subsequent
turn toward the northwestward and north-northwestward is forecast by
the 48 hour period and through the end of the period.  The NHC
forecast is nudged slightly to the right of the previous package and
sides with the TVCX multi-model consensus.

Jimena has moved into the Central Pacific basin.  Therefore, this is
the last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane Center.
Subsequent advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 16.9N 140.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 17.3N 141.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 17.8N 142.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 18.3N 142.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 18.8N 143.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 19.9N 144.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 21.5N 144.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 23.4N 146.2W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts






000
WTNT41 KNHC 011437
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015

Fred continues to quickly weaken this morning as the associated
deep convection near the center has decreased in coverage and
become less organized.  The center has also become exposed to the
south of the remaining shower and thunderstorm activity.  The
initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt, which is based on an 1100 UTC
ASCAT pass that showed maximum winds of around 40 kt.  Additional
weakening is predicted during the next few days while Fred moves
into a more hostile environment of increasing southwesterly shear,
mid-level dry air, and marginal sea surface temperatures.  The
tropical cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical depression in
36 to 48 hours, and become a remnant low in 2 to 3 days, but this
could occur sooner.

Fred is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 9 kt.  The
tropical cyclone is expected to be steered west-northwestward to
the south of a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic during
the next couple of days.  The western portion of the ridge is
forecast to weaken after 72 hours when a large mid- to
upper-level trough begins to deepen over the central Atlantic.
This should cause the remnant low to turn northwestward late in the
forecast period.  The models that keep Fred stronger show the
northwestward turn occurring much sooner than the NHC forecast.
The NHC track closely follows the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models that
all take a weaker Fred more westward before turning it northwestward
late in the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 18.3N  27.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 19.0N  28.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 19.8N  30.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 20.5N  31.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 21.1N  33.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 22.8N  36.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1200Z 24.4N  38.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1200Z 26.5N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown






000
WTNT41 KNHC 011437
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015

Fred continues to quickly weaken this morning as the associated
deep convection near the center has decreased in coverage and
become less organized.  The center has also become exposed to the
south of the remaining shower and thunderstorm activity.  The
initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt, which is based on an 1100 UTC
ASCAT pass that showed maximum winds of around 40 kt.  Additional
weakening is predicted during the next few days while Fred moves
into a more hostile environment of increasing southwesterly shear,
mid-level dry air, and marginal sea surface temperatures.  The
tropical cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical depression in
36 to 48 hours, and become a remnant low in 2 to 3 days, but this
could occur sooner.

Fred is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 9 kt.  The
tropical cyclone is expected to be steered west-northwestward to
the south of a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic during
the next couple of days.  The western portion of the ridge is
forecast to weaken after 72 hours when a large mid- to
upper-level trough begins to deepen over the central Atlantic.
This should cause the remnant low to turn northwestward late in the
forecast period.  The models that keep Fred stronger show the
northwestward turn occurring much sooner than the NHC forecast.
The NHC track closely follows the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models that
all take a weaker Fred more westward before turning it northwestward
late in the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 18.3N  27.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 19.0N  28.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 19.8N  30.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 20.5N  31.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 21.1N  33.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 22.8N  36.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1200Z 24.4N  38.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1200Z 26.5N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown





000
WTPZ44 KNHC 011436
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
900 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015

The cloud pattern continues to be elongated and the convection is
not very well organized at this time. Since the Dvorak T-numbers
have not changed, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt.  The
depression has the opportunity to strengthen a little bit during
the next day or two, before stronger southerly upper-level winds
ahead of a trough impact the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is
close to the consensus and similar to the previous one.

The initial motion is toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 7
kt.  The depression is forecast to be steered toward the
north-northwest and northward by the flow around a sharp trough
located to the west of the cyclone, and eventually recurves toward
the north-northeast by day 3. After that time, the cyclone is
expected to be weaker and become steered by the low-level flow.
Little motion is then anticipated. This is the solution provided by
most of the dynamical guidance. The NHC forecast follows very
closely the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 13.0N 113.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 14.0N 114.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 16.0N 114.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 17.5N 115.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 19.0N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 21.5N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 22.0N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila





000
WTPZ44 KNHC 011436
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
900 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015

The cloud pattern continues to be elongated and the convection is
not very well organized at this time. Since the Dvorak T-numbers
have not changed, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt.  The
depression has the opportunity to strengthen a little bit during
the next day or two, before stronger southerly upper-level winds
ahead of a trough impact the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is
close to the consensus and similar to the previous one.

The initial motion is toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 7
kt.  The depression is forecast to be steered toward the
north-northwest and northward by the flow around a sharp trough
located to the west of the cyclone, and eventually recurves toward
the north-northeast by day 3. After that time, the cyclone is
expected to be weaker and become steered by the low-level flow.
Little motion is then anticipated. This is the solution provided by
most of the dynamical guidance. The NHC forecast follows very
closely the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 13.0N 113.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 14.0N 114.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 16.0N 114.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 17.5N 115.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 19.0N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 21.5N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 22.0N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila






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