Home > Products > Valid Products > TCD

000
WTNT44 KNHC 291450
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

Cristobal has completed its transformation into an extratropical
cyclone with all of the cold cloud tops located well north and
northwest of the exposed center.  A frontal boundary has also
wrapped around the southern portion of the circulation.  A recent
ASCAT pass revealed a large area of 50-60 kt winds to the southeast
of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at
65 kt.  Although some gradual weakening is forecast during the next
day or so, the low is expected to remain a large and powerful
cyclone over the north Atlantic until it merges with another large
low near Iceland in 36 to 48 hours.

The cyclone has been moving northeast at more than 40 kt during the
past 6 to 12 hours.  However, the low is expected to slow down some
while it continues on a northeastward heading in deep layer
southwesterly flow during the next day or so.  The official track
forecast lies between the ECMWF and GFS solution and has been
coordinated with guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system.  Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 45.5N  47.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  30/0000Z 48.2N  41.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  30/1200Z 51.5N  35.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  31/0000Z 55.0N  27.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  31/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown





000
WTNT44 KNHC 291450
TCDAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

Cristobal has completed its transformation into an extratropical
cyclone with all of the cold cloud tops located well north and
northwest of the exposed center.  A frontal boundary has also
wrapped around the southern portion of the circulation.  A recent
ASCAT pass revealed a large area of 50-60 kt winds to the southeast
of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at
65 kt.  Although some gradual weakening is forecast during the next
day or so, the low is expected to remain a large and powerful
cyclone over the north Atlantic until it merges with another large
low near Iceland in 36 to 48 hours.

The cyclone has been moving northeast at more than 40 kt during the
past 6 to 12 hours.  However, the low is expected to slow down some
while it continues on a northeastward heading in deep layer
southwesterly flow during the next day or so.  The official track
forecast lies between the ECMWF and GFS solution and has been
coordinated with guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system.  Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 45.5N  47.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  30/0000Z 48.2N  41.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  30/1200Z 51.5N  35.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  31/0000Z 55.0N  27.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  31/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown






000
WTNT44 KNHC 290839
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
500 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

Cristobal has begun extratropical transition.  The cloud pattern has
become much less symmetric and central convection has decreased,
along with dry air eroding the southern flank of the cyclone. Dvorak
classifications are a little lower and support an intensity of about
70 kt for this advisory.  The hurricane has now moved across the
north wall of the Gulf Stream over much colder waters.  This
change in environment usually causes a significant weakening of
a tropical cyclone, but in this case strong baroclinic forcing
should delay the cyclone`s demise.  Post-tropical Cristobal will
likely remain a powerful extratropical cyclone over the north
Atlantic through early Sunday. Beyond that time, the system is
forecast to merge with another low near southern Greenland
and lose its identity.

The hurricane continues to accelerate, and the motion is now
055/43 kt with Cristobal moving rapidly within the mid-latitude
flow.  Dynamical track guidance indicates that this general motion
will continue during the next couple of days with a decrease
in forward speed and a small leftward turn due to Cristobal
interacting with the low near southern Greenland in the next day or
two.  The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model
consensus and the latest guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 42.1N  51.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 45.4N  45.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  30/0600Z 49.3N  39.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  30/1800Z 52.9N  32.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  31/0600Z 59.0N  24.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  01/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Blake





000
WTNT44 KNHC 290839
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
500 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

Cristobal has begun extratropical transition.  The cloud pattern has
become much less symmetric and central convection has decreased,
along with dry air eroding the southern flank of the cyclone. Dvorak
classifications are a little lower and support an intensity of about
70 kt for this advisory.  The hurricane has now moved across the
north wall of the Gulf Stream over much colder waters.  This
change in environment usually causes a significant weakening of
a tropical cyclone, but in this case strong baroclinic forcing
should delay the cyclone`s demise.  Post-tropical Cristobal will
likely remain a powerful extratropical cyclone over the north
Atlantic through early Sunday. Beyond that time, the system is
forecast to merge with another low near southern Greenland
and lose its identity.

The hurricane continues to accelerate, and the motion is now
055/43 kt with Cristobal moving rapidly within the mid-latitude
flow.  Dynamical track guidance indicates that this general motion
will continue during the next couple of days with a decrease
in forward speed and a small leftward turn due to Cristobal
interacting with the low near southern Greenland in the next day or
two.  The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model
consensus and the latest guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 42.1N  51.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 45.4N  45.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  30/0600Z 49.3N  39.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  30/1800Z 52.9N  32.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  31/0600Z 59.0N  24.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  01/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Blake






000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290834
TCDEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

There has been no organized deep convection within the circulation
of the system for many hours now, so Marie has transitioned into a
post-tropical cyclone.  The initial wind speed remains 35 kt in
agreement with 30-35 kt winds noted in a 0530 UTC ASCAT-B pass.  The
large circulation will gradually spin down over cold waters of the
eastern North Pacific, and the NHC intensity forecast is in good
agreement with the global model guidance and the previous NHC
prediction.

Marie is moving northwestward at about 12 kt. The cyclone should
slow down during the next day or so as it moves away from a
mid-level ridge near California into an area of lighter steering
currents.  The low-level ridge is forecast to build to the northwest
of Marie after that time, causing the post-tropical cyclone to move
west-northwestward and eventually west-southwestward by the end of
the period.  The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
one and is close to the dynamical model consensus.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through tonight. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Marie.  For future information on the post-tropical cyclone,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 27.6N 132.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  29/1800Z 28.7N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/0600Z 29.7N 134.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1800Z 30.4N 135.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0600Z 30.7N 136.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0600Z 30.7N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0600Z 30.3N 140.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0600Z 29.5N 142.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake





000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290834
TCDEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

There has been no organized deep convection within the circulation
of the system for many hours now, so Marie has transitioned into a
post-tropical cyclone.  The initial wind speed remains 35 kt in
agreement with 30-35 kt winds noted in a 0530 UTC ASCAT-B pass.  The
large circulation will gradually spin down over cold waters of the
eastern North Pacific, and the NHC intensity forecast is in good
agreement with the global model guidance and the previous NHC
prediction.

Marie is moving northwestward at about 12 kt. The cyclone should
slow down during the next day or so as it moves away from a
mid-level ridge near California into an area of lighter steering
currents.  The low-level ridge is forecast to build to the northwest
of Marie after that time, causing the post-tropical cyclone to move
west-northwestward and eventually west-southwestward by the end of
the period.  The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
one and is close to the dynamical model consensus.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through tonight. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Marie.  For future information on the post-tropical cyclone,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 27.6N 132.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  29/1800Z 28.7N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/0600Z 29.7N 134.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1800Z 30.4N 135.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0600Z 30.7N 136.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0600Z 30.7N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0600Z 30.3N 140.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0600Z 29.5N 142.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake






000
WTNT44 KNHC 290253
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014

Remarkably, Cristobal still has a well-organized appearance on
satellite imagery with a central dense overcast and some banding
features.  The current intensity estimate is increased to 75 kt in
agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  The
hurricane will soon encounter much cooler waters, which would cause
significant weakening as a tropical cyclone.  However, it is
expected that the cyclone will be able to maintain at least some of
its strength due to baroclinic forcing.  Post-tropical Cristobal
will likely remain a powerful, albeit extratropical, cyclone over
the north Atlantic through Saturday.  Beyond that time, the system
is forecast to merge with another low near southern Greenland and
lose its identity.

The hurricane has continued to accelerate, and the motion is now
near 065/40 kt as Cristobal moves within the mid-latitude
westerlies.  Dynamical track guidance indicates a slight turn toward
the northeast as the tropical or post-tropical cyclone interacts
with the low near southern Greenland in the next day or two.  The
official track forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and
ECMWF model solutions.

The wind radii were adjusted based on data from a recent ASCAT
overpass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 40.2N  56.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 43.1N  49.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 47.5N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  30/1200Z 51.5N  34.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  31/0000Z 56.5N  27.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  01/0000Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER CYCLONE

$$
Forecaster Pasch





000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290253
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

Marie has only been producing patchy shallow convection for the past
12 hours or so, and the daily real-time global SST analysis shows
that the center is approaching water as cold as 21C.  Since deep
convection should not redevelop in this environment, Marie is
expected to become post-tropical overnight--if it isn`t already.  In
the meantime, maximum winds are assumed to still be around 35 kt
based on an earlier ASCAT pass.  The large circulation will take
some time to spin down, and a gradually weakening remnant low is
forecast through the 5-day period.

The initial motion remains 310/14 kt, with Marie moving along the
western edge of a low- to mid-level ridge located near the coast of
California and the Baja California peninsula.  Marie will slow down
during the next day or so as it moves away from the ridge.  Then,
the low-level flow will steer the remnant low west-northwestward
and eventually west-southwestward by the end of the period.  The
NHC track is very similar to the previous one and close to the TVCE
model consensus.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 27.0N 131.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 28.2N 133.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/0000Z 29.4N 134.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1200Z 30.3N 135.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0000Z 30.8N 136.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0000Z 30.8N 138.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0000Z 30.5N 140.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0000Z 30.0N 142.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg






000
WTPZ43 KNHC 290253
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

Marie has only been producing patchy shallow convection for the past
12 hours or so, and the daily real-time global SST analysis shows
that the center is approaching water as cold as 21C.  Since deep
convection should not redevelop in this environment, Marie is
expected to become post-tropical overnight--if it isn`t already.  In
the meantime, maximum winds are assumed to still be around 35 kt
based on an earlier ASCAT pass.  The large circulation will take
some time to spin down, and a gradually weakening remnant low is
forecast through the 5-day period.

The initial motion remains 310/14 kt, with Marie moving along the
western edge of a low- to mid-level ridge located near the coast of
California and the Baja California peninsula.  Marie will slow down
during the next day or so as it moves away from the ridge.  Then,
the low-level flow will steer the remnant low west-northwestward
and eventually west-southwestward by the end of the period.  The
NHC track is very similar to the previous one and close to the TVCE
model consensus.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 27.0N 131.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 28.2N 133.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  30/0000Z 29.4N 134.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/1200Z 30.3N 135.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  31/0000Z 30.8N 136.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  01/0000Z 30.8N 138.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  02/0000Z 30.5N 140.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  03/0000Z 30.0N 142.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg





000
WTNT44 KNHC 290253
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014

Remarkably, Cristobal still has a well-organized appearance on
satellite imagery with a central dense overcast and some banding
features.  The current intensity estimate is increased to 75 kt in
agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  The
hurricane will soon encounter much cooler waters, which would cause
significant weakening as a tropical cyclone.  However, it is
expected that the cyclone will be able to maintain at least some of
its strength due to baroclinic forcing.  Post-tropical Cristobal
will likely remain a powerful, albeit extratropical, cyclone over
the north Atlantic through Saturday.  Beyond that time, the system
is forecast to merge with another low near southern Greenland and
lose its identity.

The hurricane has continued to accelerate, and the motion is now
near 065/40 kt as Cristobal moves within the mid-latitude
westerlies.  Dynamical track guidance indicates a slight turn toward
the northeast as the tropical or post-tropical cyclone interacts
with the low near southern Greenland in the next day or two.  The
official track forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and
ECMWF model solutions.

The wind radii were adjusted based on data from a recent ASCAT
overpass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 40.2N  56.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 43.1N  49.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 47.5N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  30/1200Z 51.5N  34.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  31/0000Z 56.5N  27.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  01/0000Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER CYCLONE

$$
Forecaster Pasch






000
WTNT44 KNHC 282034
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
500 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014

The satellite presentation of Cristobal looked its best in visible
imagery shortly after the release of the previous advisory, when the
eye became more apparent.  Since that time, the eye has become a
little more ragged, but a blend of the latest subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates yields an initial wind speed
of 70 kt.  Although the official forecast does not explicitly show
any additional intensification, there is a small window of
opportunity this evening for the hurricane to get a little
stronger.  After that time, Cristobal will be moving across the
north wall of the Gulf Stream -- and over much colder waters.  An
upper-level trough and cold front approaching the cyclone from the
northwest should cause Cristobal to transform into an extratropical
cyclone on Friday.  The extratropical cyclone is expected to
continue to produce hurricane-force winds during the next couple of
days before it merges with another large extratropical cyclone over
the north Atlantic in about 3 days.

The hurricane continues to accelerate, and is now moving
east-northeastward at 31 kt.  The cyclone should continue to
accelerate tonight and remain on an east-northeastward to
northeastward heading during the next 2 to 3 days.  The updated NHC
track is in good agreement with the tightly clustered guidance,
but the forecast has been adjusted slightly to the right due to a
more eastward 1800 UTC initial position.  The track, intensity and
wind radii forecasts of the extratropical low have been coordinated
with the Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 38.5N  61.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 41.0N  54.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 45.2N  46.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  30/0600Z 49.3N  38.4W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  30/1800Z 54.0N  31.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/1800Z 62.0N  23.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  01/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown






000
WTPZ43 KNHC 282032
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

Deep convection has been absent from Marie since around the time of
the previous advisory. Convection seems unlikely to return given
that the cyclone is moving over waters of around 22C. If convection
does not return, the cyclone will likely be declared post-tropical
tonight. The vortex still has an impressive presentation in visible
satellite imagery, with a tight swirl of low clouds and a
circulation that spans about 10 degrees of latitude. The initial
intensity of 35 kt is in agreement with the latest Dvorak
classification from TAFB. Only slow weakening is forecast during the
next few days given the scale of the circulation, and the remnant
low is expected to persist through the 5-day period.

The initial motion estimate is 310/14. A general northwestward
motion is expected through 48 hours while the cyclone remains under
the influence of a mid-level ridge centered near the coast of
southern California. By 72 hours Marie is forecast to slow down
considerably and turn westward and then west-southwestward by the
end of the period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous one after adjusting for
the initial position and motion.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 26.1N 130.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 27.4N 132.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  29/1800Z 28.8N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/0600Z 29.8N 135.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1800Z 30.6N 136.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/1800Z 30.9N 138.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1800Z 30.6N 140.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1800Z 30.0N 142.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan





000
WTPZ43 KNHC 282032
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

Deep convection has been absent from Marie since around the time of
the previous advisory. Convection seems unlikely to return given
that the cyclone is moving over waters of around 22C. If convection
does not return, the cyclone will likely be declared post-tropical
tonight. The vortex still has an impressive presentation in visible
satellite imagery, with a tight swirl of low clouds and a
circulation that spans about 10 degrees of latitude. The initial
intensity of 35 kt is in agreement with the latest Dvorak
classification from TAFB. Only slow weakening is forecast during the
next few days given the scale of the circulation, and the remnant
low is expected to persist through the 5-day period.

The initial motion estimate is 310/14. A general northwestward
motion is expected through 48 hours while the cyclone remains under
the influence of a mid-level ridge centered near the coast of
southern California. By 72 hours Marie is forecast to slow down
considerably and turn westward and then west-southwestward by the
end of the period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous one after adjusting for
the initial position and motion.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/2100Z 26.1N 130.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 27.4N 132.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  29/1800Z 28.8N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/0600Z 29.8N 135.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1800Z 30.6N 136.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/1800Z 30.9N 138.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1800Z 30.6N 140.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1800Z 30.0N 142.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan






000
WTNT44 KNHC 281445
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014

The satellite presentation of Cristobal has become much more
symmetric than at any earlier time during its life. The center is
embedded within an area of deep convection and a warm spot has
become evident in recent visible satellite images. T-numbers from
both SAB and TAFB are 4.0 on the Dvorak Scale and the initial
intensity is set at 65 kt. Some strengthening is expected
today while the hurricane remains over warm water.  The cyclone will
begin to interact with a frontal zone tonight and should complete
extratropical transition on Friday.  The global models indicate that
the extratropical low will remain a powerful cyclone over the north
Atlantic during the next few days.  The low is forecast to merge
with another large extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic in
3 to 4 days.

Cristobal is moving northeastward at about 23 kt.  The cyclone
should continue to accelerate northeastward in the mid-latitude
westerlies during the next day or so.  The updated NHC track is
close to the previous advisory and near the middle of the guidance
envelope.  The track, intensity and wind radii forecasts of the
extratropical low have been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction
Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 36.9N  65.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 39.7N  59.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 43.8N  51.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 48.0N  43.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  30/1200Z 51.5N  36.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/1200Z 61.1N  25.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  01/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown






000
WTNT44 KNHC 281445
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014

The satellite presentation of Cristobal has become much more
symmetric than at any earlier time during its life. The center is
embedded within an area of deep convection and a warm spot has
become evident in recent visible satellite images. T-numbers from
both SAB and TAFB are 4.0 on the Dvorak Scale and the initial
intensity is set at 65 kt. Some strengthening is expected
today while the hurricane remains over warm water.  The cyclone will
begin to interact with a frontal zone tonight and should complete
extratropical transition on Friday.  The global models indicate that
the extratropical low will remain a powerful cyclone over the north
Atlantic during the next few days.  The low is forecast to merge
with another large extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic in
3 to 4 days.

Cristobal is moving northeastward at about 23 kt.  The cyclone
should continue to accelerate northeastward in the mid-latitude
westerlies during the next day or so.  The updated NHC track is
close to the previous advisory and near the middle of the guidance
envelope.  The track, intensity and wind radii forecasts of the
extratropical low have been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction
Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 36.9N  65.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 39.7N  59.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 43.8N  51.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  30/0000Z 48.0N  43.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  30/1200Z 51.5N  36.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/1200Z 61.1N  25.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  01/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown





000
WTPZ43 KNHC 281442
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

Marie has continued to produce a small area of convection south and
east of the center for the past few hours, but the tops have been
warming recently. The initial intensity is set at 40 kt, a bit above
the latest satellite classifications. Deep convection should
dissipate shortly now that Marie is moving over SSTs around 22C, and
Marie should become post-tropical by tonight. Gradual weakening is
expected during the forecast period, as it will take the large
circulation some time to spin down even without convection. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one.

The initial motion estimate is 310/13. A general northwestward
motion is expected for the next couple of days while the cyclone
remains under the influence of a mid-level ridge centered near the
coast of southern California. Marie is forecast to slow down
considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of
the period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous one after adjustment for the
initial position and motion.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 25.4N 128.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 26.7N 130.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 28.2N 132.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/0000Z 29.4N 134.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1200Z 30.3N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/1200Z 30.8N 137.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1200Z 30.7N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1200Z 30.0N 140.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan





000
WTPZ43 KNHC 281442
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

Marie has continued to produce a small area of convection south and
east of the center for the past few hours, but the tops have been
warming recently. The initial intensity is set at 40 kt, a bit above
the latest satellite classifications. Deep convection should
dissipate shortly now that Marie is moving over SSTs around 22C, and
Marie should become post-tropical by tonight. Gradual weakening is
expected during the forecast period, as it will take the large
circulation some time to spin down even without convection. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one.

The initial motion estimate is 310/13. A general northwestward
motion is expected for the next couple of days while the cyclone
remains under the influence of a mid-level ridge centered near the
coast of southern California. Marie is forecast to slow down
considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of
the period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous one after adjustment for the
initial position and motion.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 25.4N 128.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 26.7N 130.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/1200Z 28.2N 132.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  30/0000Z 29.4N 134.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/1200Z 30.3N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/1200Z 30.8N 137.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1200Z 30.7N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/1200Z 30.0N 140.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan






000
WTNT44 KNHC 280832
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
500 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014

Cristobal`s satellite presentation is more typical of a tropical
cyclone tonight than yesterday at this time. There is a symmetric
area of very deep convection concentrated near the center, and
Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support an initial intensity of
65 kt. There is a small opportunity for intensification as
indicated by some models, but it is becoming more likely that it
will be enhanced by baroclinic processes as the cyclone interacts
with a frontal zone.  Cristobal will move over 17-degree Celsius
waters and lose tropical characteristics in about 36 hours. It
should then become an intense extratropical cyclone with winds of
hurricane force over the north Atlantic in a couple of days.

The hurricane is already embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies
and is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 25 knots and
accelerating. There is no reason to change the track forecast from
the previous one, and the official forecast track continues to be in
good agreement with the multi-model consensus TVCA and the GFS
ensemble mean.

The track, intensity and wind radii forecasts have been coordinated
with the Ocean Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 35.6N  67.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 37.8N  63.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 41.5N  55.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 46.0N  47.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  30/0600Z 50.0N  40.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/0600Z 59.5N  28.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  01/0600Z 63.0N  21.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Avila






000
WTNT44 KNHC 280832
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
500 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014

Cristobal`s satellite presentation is more typical of a tropical
cyclone tonight than yesterday at this time. There is a symmetric
area of very deep convection concentrated near the center, and
Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support an initial intensity of
65 kt. There is a small opportunity for intensification as
indicated by some models, but it is becoming more likely that it
will be enhanced by baroclinic processes as the cyclone interacts
with a frontal zone.  Cristobal will move over 17-degree Celsius
waters and lose tropical characteristics in about 36 hours. It
should then become an intense extratropical cyclone with winds of
hurricane force over the north Atlantic in a couple of days.

The hurricane is already embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies
and is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 25 knots and
accelerating. There is no reason to change the track forecast from
the previous one, and the official forecast track continues to be in
good agreement with the multi-model consensus TVCA and the GFS
ensemble mean.

The track, intensity and wind radii forecasts have been coordinated
with the Ocean Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 35.6N  67.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 37.8N  63.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 41.5N  55.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 46.0N  47.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  30/0600Z 50.0N  40.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/0600Z 59.5N  28.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  01/0600Z 63.0N  21.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Avila





000
WTPZ43 KNHC 280831
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

Deep convection near Marie has significantly decreased in the past
few hours, with the low-level center becoming partially exposed on
the north side of the old central dense overcast.  The initial
wind speed is reduced to 45 kt, on the higher side of the latest
satellite classifications.  Since Marie is now over sub-23C waters,
it is no longer expected to produce organized deep convection and
should become post-tropical in about 12 hours.  The large
circulation will take some time to spin down even without
convection, so the NHC intensity forecast shows only a gradual
decay, similar to the global models and the intensity consensus.

Marie is moving to the northwest or 305/14 kt.  This general motion
is expected for the next day or so while the cyclone remains under
the influence of a mid-level high near the coast of southern
California.  Marie or its remnants are forecast to slow down
considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of
the forecast period when it is steered by the lower-level flow.
Model guidance has nudged a bit to the west in the first 48 hours,
so the NHC track forecast is adjusted in that direction.  Beyond day
3, the updated NHC track prediction, similar to the previous
forecast, is a little bit farther north.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday.  These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 24.4N 127.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 25.6N 129.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  29/0600Z 27.4N 132.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/1800Z 28.9N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0600Z 30.0N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/0600Z 30.7N 137.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0600Z 30.7N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0600Z 30.5N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake





000
WTPZ43 KNHC 280831
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

Deep convection near Marie has significantly decreased in the past
few hours, with the low-level center becoming partially exposed on
the north side of the old central dense overcast.  The initial
wind speed is reduced to 45 kt, on the higher side of the latest
satellite classifications.  Since Marie is now over sub-23C waters,
it is no longer expected to produce organized deep convection and
should become post-tropical in about 12 hours.  The large
circulation will take some time to spin down even without
convection, so the NHC intensity forecast shows only a gradual
decay, similar to the global models and the intensity consensus.

Marie is moving to the northwest or 305/14 kt.  This general motion
is expected for the next day or so while the cyclone remains under
the influence of a mid-level high near the coast of southern
California.  Marie or its remnants are forecast to slow down
considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of
the forecast period when it is steered by the lower-level flow.
Model guidance has nudged a bit to the west in the first 48 hours,
so the NHC track forecast is adjusted in that direction.  Beyond day
3, the updated NHC track prediction, similar to the previous
forecast, is a little bit farther north.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday.  These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 24.4N 127.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 25.6N 129.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  29/0600Z 27.4N 132.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/1800Z 28.9N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0600Z 30.0N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/0600Z 30.7N 137.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0600Z 30.7N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0600Z 30.5N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake






000
WTPZ43 KNHC 280234
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

The convective pattern has not changed since the last advisory.
However, the center of Marie is now over SSTs less than 24C, and
the circulation continues to gradually spin down.  ASCAT data still
showed a sizable area of 50-kt winds several hours ago, so the
initial intensity is only lowered to 50 kt, which is on the higher
side of the satellite intensity estimates.  Water temperatures
between 22-23C and a stable environment will cause the cyclone to
continue weakening, and Marie could become a convection-free
post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours.

A strengthening mid-level high near the coast of California and
the Baja California peninsula has caused Marie to accelerate a bit,
with an initial motion of 300/14 kt.  Marie is forecast to turn
northwestward around this high during the next 48 hours, but then
slow down considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by
the end of the forecast period when it is steered by lower-level
flow.  The updated NHC track forecast is a little bit farther north
than the previous one beyond day 3 during the remnant low phase,
but otherwise there are no significant changes.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday.  These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 23.8N 126.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 25.0N 128.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 26.7N 130.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  29/1200Z 28.4N 132.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0000Z 29.6N 133.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/0000Z 30.5N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z 30.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0000Z 30.0N 139.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg






000
WTPZ43 KNHC 280234
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

The convective pattern has not changed since the last advisory.
However, the center of Marie is now over SSTs less than 24C, and
the circulation continues to gradually spin down.  ASCAT data still
showed a sizable area of 50-kt winds several hours ago, so the
initial intensity is only lowered to 50 kt, which is on the higher
side of the satellite intensity estimates.  Water temperatures
between 22-23C and a stable environment will cause the cyclone to
continue weakening, and Marie could become a convection-free
post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours.

A strengthening mid-level high near the coast of California and
the Baja California peninsula has caused Marie to accelerate a bit,
with an initial motion of 300/14 kt.  Marie is forecast to turn
northwestward around this high during the next 48 hours, but then
slow down considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by
the end of the forecast period when it is steered by lower-level
flow.  The updated NHC track forecast is a little bit farther north
than the previous one beyond day 3 during the remnant low phase,
but otherwise there are no significant changes.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday.  These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 23.8N 126.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 25.0N 128.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 26.7N 130.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  29/1200Z 28.4N 132.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0000Z 29.6N 133.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/0000Z 30.5N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z 30.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  02/0000Z 30.0N 139.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg





000
WTNT44 KNHC 280232
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 PM AST WED AUG 27 2014

Cristobal has a fairly circular area of deep convection over the
estimated low-level center, with cloud tops occasionally to -70 deg
C.  The initial intensity is kept at 65 kt, in agreement with a
Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  The symmetric appearance of the cloud
pattern suggests that vertical shear has not yet become very
strong, but the latest SHIPS guidance indicates a significant
increase in shear in 18-24 hours.  The hurricane could strengthen
some over the next day or two as a tropical cyclone, or due to
baroclinic processes.  The official intensity forecast is close to
the intensity model consensus through 36 hours, and a little above
it thereafter. Extratropical transition is likely to have occurred
by 48 hours since the global models depict the system as fully
embedded within a frontal zone by that time. Post-tropical Cristobal
is likely to be an intense extratropical cyclone with winds to
hurricane force over the north Atlantic in a couple of days.

The hurricane is beginning to accelerate northeastward, and the
motion estimate is 050/17.  The track forecast is unchanged from
the previous advisory.  Cristobal is currently rounding the
northwestern periphery of a subtropical anticyclone over the
west-central Atlantic.  A mid-latitude shortwave trough to the
northwest of the hurricane should cause the hurricane, or its
post-tropical counterpart, to accelerate further and move into the
higher-latitude westerlies.  The official forecast track is in good
agreement with the multi-model consensus TVCA.

The track, intensity and wind structure forecasts have been
coordinated with the Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 34.1N  69.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 36.1N  66.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 39.3N  59.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 43.4N  51.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 47.5N  44.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/0000Z 56.0N  32.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  01/0000Z 62.5N  25.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Pasch






000
WTPZ43 KNHC 272033
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

The satellite presentation of Marie continues to degrade with
convection now confined to the southeastern portion of the
circulation.  The center has also become partially exposed.
Subjective and objective Dvorak T- and CI- numbers continue to
decrease, and the initial wind speed is reduced to 55 kt.  This is
also supported by a recent partial ASCAT pass that showed winds to
50 kt over the northern portion of the circulation. The cyclone is
expected to continue weakening while it moves over sea surface
temperatures of 22 to 23 degrees Celsius, and into a more stable
environment during the next couple of days.  Marie should become a
post-tropical cyclone by late Thursday.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt.  A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast to continue
during the next 2 to 3 days while the cyclone is steered around
the western side of a mid-level high off the coast of the northern
Baja California peninsula.  After Marie becomes a shallow system, it
should turn westward or west-southwestward in low-level
northeasterly flow.  The new NHC track is essentially an update of
the previous advisory.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern
California.  These swells are expected to persist for another day or
so and are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high
tide.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 23.1N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 24.1N 127.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 25.8N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 27.6N 131.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1800Z 29.0N 133.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1800Z 30.0N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1800Z 30.0N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1800Z 29.5N 138.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown





000
WTPZ43 KNHC 272033
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

The satellite presentation of Marie continues to degrade with
convection now confined to the southeastern portion of the
circulation.  The center has also become partially exposed.
Subjective and objective Dvorak T- and CI- numbers continue to
decrease, and the initial wind speed is reduced to 55 kt.  This is
also supported by a recent partial ASCAT pass that showed winds to
50 kt over the northern portion of the circulation. The cyclone is
expected to continue weakening while it moves over sea surface
temperatures of 22 to 23 degrees Celsius, and into a more stable
environment during the next couple of days.  Marie should become a
post-tropical cyclone by late Thursday.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt.  A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast to continue
during the next 2 to 3 days while the cyclone is steered around
the western side of a mid-level high off the coast of the northern
Baja California peninsula.  After Marie becomes a shallow system, it
should turn westward or west-southwestward in low-level
northeasterly flow.  The new NHC track is essentially an update of
the previous advisory.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern
California.  These swells are expected to persist for another day or
so and are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high
tide.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 23.1N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 24.1N 127.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 25.8N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 27.6N 131.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1800Z 29.0N 133.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1800Z 30.0N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1800Z 30.0N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1800Z 29.5N 138.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown






000
WTNT44 KNHC 272032
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
500 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

Deep convection continues to be confined mostly near and to the west
of the center of Cristobal, with dry air persisting in the eastern
semicircle. After rising a bit earlier this afternoon, the central
pressure has fallen back down to 984 mb. The initial intensity of 65
kt is based on several 60-65 kt SFMR winds from the hurricane hunter
aircraft. The intensity forecast shows gradual intensification to 75
kt in 36 to 48 hours, as Cristobal will have the opportunity to
intensify as a tropical cyclone and then via baroclinic processes
during extratropical transition. Global model fields show Cristobal
deepening during transition and acquiring a warm seclusion structure
in 48 to 72 hours. Slow decay is expected after 72 hours before the
cyclone is absorbed at high latitudes.

Cristobal has begun moving north-northeastward, with an initial
motion estimate of 030/13. The cyclone should continue to accelerate
around the subtropical ridge into the mid-latitude westerlies
tonight and remain on a general northeastward heading through 72
hours before bending northward. The track model guidance remains in
good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track is close to the
previous forecast and the middle of the guidance envelope.

The extratropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
the Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 32.7N  71.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 34.4N  69.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 37.3N  63.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 41.0N  55.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 45.3N  47.8W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  30/1800Z 53.5N  34.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/1800Z 60.0N  27.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brennan





000
WTNT44 KNHC 271441
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

Some deep convection has redeveloped near the center of Cristobal
during the past few hours, mainly in the western semicircle.
Satellite imagery shows dry air wrapping south and east of the
center interspersed with a couple of convective bands. The initial
intensity remains 70 kt, and another aircraft will be investigating
the cyclone this afternoon. There is still some potential for
Cristobal to strengthen as a tropical cyclone during the next day or
so before it begins extratropical transition, which should be
complete shortly after 48 hours. Cristobal is expected to be a
powerful extratropical cyclone by Friday night or Saturday, and then
slowly weaken before being absorbed by another cyclone at the end of
the period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one and close to the IVCN intensity consensus while Cristobal
remains a tropical cyclone.

Cristobal has wobbled a little to the left this morning, with an
initial motion estimate of 355/10. All of the guidance is unanimous
in turning Cristobal north-northeastward and then northeastward
during the next 24 hours and accelerating the cyclone into the
mid-latitude westerlies. A continued northeasterly motion is
expected through the remainder of the cyclone`s life cycle. The
track model guidance is tightly clustered, but the NHC forecast has
shifted to the left of the previous one by about a half a degree due
to the initial position and motion being to the left of the previous
track. The new NHC track is close to a consensus of the GFS and
ECMWF models through 72 hours, and a little south of that consensus
at 96 hours.

The extratropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
the Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 31.8N  72.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 34.0N  70.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 36.5N  66.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 39.6N  59.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 43.5N  52.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 50.0N  40.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/1200Z 56.0N  29.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brennan






000
WTNT44 KNHC 271441
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

Some deep convection has redeveloped near the center of Cristobal
during the past few hours, mainly in the western semicircle.
Satellite imagery shows dry air wrapping south and east of the
center interspersed with a couple of convective bands. The initial
intensity remains 70 kt, and another aircraft will be investigating
the cyclone this afternoon. There is still some potential for
Cristobal to strengthen as a tropical cyclone during the next day or
so before it begins extratropical transition, which should be
complete shortly after 48 hours. Cristobal is expected to be a
powerful extratropical cyclone by Friday night or Saturday, and then
slowly weaken before being absorbed by another cyclone at the end of
the period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one and close to the IVCN intensity consensus while Cristobal
remains a tropical cyclone.

Cristobal has wobbled a little to the left this morning, with an
initial motion estimate of 355/10. All of the guidance is unanimous
in turning Cristobal north-northeastward and then northeastward
during the next 24 hours and accelerating the cyclone into the
mid-latitude westerlies. A continued northeasterly motion is
expected through the remainder of the cyclone`s life cycle. The
track model guidance is tightly clustered, but the NHC forecast has
shifted to the left of the previous one by about a half a degree due
to the initial position and motion being to the left of the previous
track. The new NHC track is close to a consensus of the GFS and
ECMWF models through 72 hours, and a little south of that consensus
at 96 hours.

The extratropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
the Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 31.8N  72.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 34.0N  70.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 36.5N  66.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 39.6N  59.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 43.5N  52.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 50.0N  40.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/1200Z 56.0N  29.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brennan





000
WTPZ43 KNHC 271441
TCDEP3

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

Convective cloud tops associated with Marie continue to warm and
recent microwave imagery shows the inner-core convection becoming
less organized.  The initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt, which
is a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from
TAFB and SAB and objective ADT CI numbers from UW-CIMSS. Marie will
be moving over progressively cooler water and into a more stable
environment during the next 24 to 36 hours. This should result in
continued weakening and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone within 36 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt.  A west-northwestward
motion should continue today, followed by a turn toward the
northwest while the cyclone moves around the southwestern periphery
of a mid-level high off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula.
After the system becomes shallow, it is expected to turn westward
and then west-southwestward in northeasterly low-level flow.  The
model guidance has trended toward a somewhat faster motion of Marie
during the first few days of the forecast period.  The NHC forecast
has been adjusted accordingly and is close to the model consensus.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja
California peninsula and the southern California coast.  These
swells are expected to persist for another day or so and are likely
to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor
coastal flooding around the time of high tide.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 22.3N 123.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 23.3N 125.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 24.8N 128.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 26.4N 130.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  29/1200Z 28.0N 132.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1200Z 30.0N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1200Z 30.0N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1200Z 29.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown





000
WTPZ43 KNHC 271441
TCDEP3

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
800 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

Convective cloud tops associated with Marie continue to warm and
recent microwave imagery shows the inner-core convection becoming
less organized.  The initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt, which
is a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from
TAFB and SAB and objective ADT CI numbers from UW-CIMSS. Marie will
be moving over progressively cooler water and into a more stable
environment during the next 24 to 36 hours. This should result in
continued weakening and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone within 36 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt.  A west-northwestward
motion should continue today, followed by a turn toward the
northwest while the cyclone moves around the southwestern periphery
of a mid-level high off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula.
After the system becomes shallow, it is expected to turn westward
and then west-southwestward in northeasterly low-level flow.  The
model guidance has trended toward a somewhat faster motion of Marie
during the first few days of the forecast period.  The NHC forecast
has been adjusted accordingly and is close to the model consensus.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja
California peninsula and the southern California coast.  These
swells are expected to persist for another day or so and are likely
to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor
coastal flooding around the time of high tide.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 22.3N 123.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 23.3N 125.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 24.8N 128.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 26.4N 130.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  29/1200Z 28.0N 132.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/1200Z 30.0N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1200Z 30.0N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1200Z 29.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities