WSOM-C-41-00-08
August 25, 2000
TO: All Holders of Operational Manual
SUBJECT: Transmittal Memorandum for Operations Manual Issuance 0-08
WSOM Chapter C-41, Tropical Cyclone Program.
a. Policy has been separated from procedures. Procedures reside in Appendix A.
Eye Wall
Hurricane/Typhoon Eye
Hurricane/Typhoon Season
Hurricane/Typhoon Watch
Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale
Probability of Tropical Cyclone Conditions
This chapter supersedes WSOM Issuance 99-03 in its entirety.
John J. Kelly, Jr.
WSOM-C-41-00-08
| Issue Date | Org. Code | NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
Operations Manual |
Part | Cha |
| 08/25/00 | W/OM12 | C | 41 |
TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGRAM
Table of Contents Page
2. Organizational Responsibilities
2.1 Weather Service Headquarters (WSH)
2.2 Regional Headquarters (RH)
2.3 Tropical Cyclone Prediction Centers
2.3.1 Tropical Prediction Center (TPC)
2.3.2 Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
2.3.3 Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
2.4 National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
2.4.1 Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC)
2.4.2 Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
2.4.3 NCEP Central Operations (NCO)
2.5 National Environmental Satellite, Data, and
Information Service (NESDIS)
2.6 River Forecast Centers (RFC)
2.7 Weather Forecast Offices (WFO)
2.8 Weather Forecast Office Tiyan, Guam
2.9 Weather Service Offices (WSO)
3. Tropical Cyclone Procedures
Appendices
APPENDIX A
A. Tropical Cyclone Procedures and Products
1. Tropical Cyclone Center and NCEP non-forecast Issuances
1.1 Satellite Interpretation Message
1.2 Tropical Weather Discussion
1.3 Tropical Weather Outlook
1.4 Tropical Weather Summary
1.5 Special Tropical Disturbance Statement
1.6 Storm Summaries
* 1.7 Marine Interpretation Message
2. Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory Products
* 2.1 Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories
2.2 Tropical Cyclone Forecasts/Advisories
2.3 Tropical Cyclone Discussion
2.4 Tropical Cyclone Updates
2.5 Tropical Cyclone Position Estimate
2.6 Strike Probability Forecast of Tropical Cyclone Conditions
3. Subtropical Cyclone Advisory Products
3.1 Subtropical Cyclone Public Advisories
3.2 Subtropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory
4. Numbering and Naming Tropical and Subtropical Cyclones
* 4.1 Numbering Tropical Depressions
* 4.2 Numbering Subtropical Cyclones
* 4.3 Naming Tropical and Subtropical Cyclones
5. Numbering Advisories and Tropical Cyclone Discussions
* 6. NWS Local Office Issuances
6.1 Hurricane/Typhoon Local Statements (HLS)
6.2 Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm, and Flash Flood Warnings
6.3 Inland High Wind Watches and Warnings for Hurricane
Force Winds
6.4 Inland High Wind Watches and Warnings for
Subtropical and Extratropical Storms
* 7.1 Preliminary Post-Storm Reports
7.2 Information for Service Assessments
* 7.3 Storm Data Reports
* 7.4 Preliminary Reports
9.1 Tropical Cyclone Forecasts and Advisories
9.2 Other Advisories
9.3 Flooding
9.4 Tornadoes
9.5 Military Service
* 10. Backup of Tropical Cyclone Centers
11. Transfer of Responsibility for Issuing Advisories
12. Emergency Operating Instructions
* 13. Requesting GFDL Model Guidance
* B. Examples of Tropical Weather Products
* D. Tropical Cyclone Assessment and Warning Product Identifiers
* E. Official Defining Points for Watches and Warnings
F. Estimated Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Times
G. Geographic Defining Points and Phonetic Pronunciations
* H. Tropical Cyclone Names and Pronunciation Guides
NOTE 1: In implementing this Chapter, negotiations between the NWS and the NWS Employees Organization have been completed. The generic set of proposals for implementing WSOM issuances involving new or modified products and/or services apply. Please inform the steward assigned to your office about this new Chapter.
NOTE 2: An * precedes each section changed in this issuance.
1. Purpose. The chapter states policy and procedures for the National Weather Service (NWS) Tropical Cyclone Program. The chapter provides guidance for the issuance of all tropical cyclone products for the north Atlantic and north Pacific oceans. The National Hurricane Operations Plan (NHOP) contains dditional program information.
2. Organizational Responsibilities.
2.1 Weather Service Headquarters (WSH). Responsibility for NWS tropical cyclone service rests with the Assistant Administrator for Weather Services.
Staff assistance is provided by the Director, Office of Meteorology, with the Chief, Integrated Hydrometeorological Services, serving as principal advisor.
2.2 Regional Headquarters (RH).
2.2.1 RH shall ensure all offices are prepared for the hurricane/typhoon season by:
c. Conducting tropical cyclone operations drills (Weather Service Operations Manual [WSOM] Chapter A-17, Emergency Drills),
d. Updating the Station Duty Manual (WSOM Chapter A-13, Station Duty Manual).
2.2.2 Should a tropical cyclone impact a region, RH shall:
a. As appropriate, detail temporary staff to offices most likely to be impacted,
b. Conduct regional-level briefings with other agencies regarding the tropical cyclone's current status and potential impact,
c. Provide special reports on Significant Weather-Related Events (See WSOM Chapter J-02, Significant Hydrometeorological Events, Post-Storm Data Acquisition, and Service Assessment),
d. Survey major damage areas if no service assessment is undertaken (See WSOM Chapter J-02),
e. Prepare a preliminary report on the effects of the tropical cyclone, and
f. Ensure all local NWS forecast offices affected by a tropical cyclone relay all pertinent information requested to the responsible Tropical Cyclone Center, WSH, and other appropriate offices.
2.3 Tropical Cyclone Prediction Centers. The tropical cyclone warning service is an interdepartmental effort providing the United States and designated recipients with warnings, forecasts, and assessments concerning tropical and subtropical weather systems. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), through the NWS, provides these services for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and eastern and central Pacific Oceans. The Department of Defense (DOD) Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), provides similar services for the western Pacific and Indian Oceans.
2.3.1 Tropical Prediction Center (TPC). The TPC, under the Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), shall issue watches and warnings, and forecasts and analyses for tropical weather conditions. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is the unit within the TPC responsible for operational hurricane forecasts and is, therefore, referred to throughout this chapter. NHC is the final authority for all meteorological decisions concerning forecasting of tropical and subtropical systems for the Atlantic Ocean and the eastern Pacific Ocean north of the equator and east of 140 west longitude and:
a. Is the official source for all tropical cyclone public advisories and tropical cyclone forecasts/advisories for the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans,
b. Determines NWS requirements and requests for tropical cyclone aircraft reconnaissance. (The NHOP lists procedures for requesting reconnaissance),
c. Makes the decision to run specialized numerical guidance models,
d. Provides backup operations to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) as detailed in the NCEP Backup Hurricane Operations Plan.
2.3.2 Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC). The CPHC, under the Director, Pacific Region, shall issue watches and warnings, forecasts and analyses for tropical weather conditions in the Pacific Ocean north of the equator from 140 to 180 west longitude. CPHC also:
a. Is the official source of all tropical cyclone public advisories and tropical cyclone forecasts/advisories for the central Pacific Ocean,
b. Through the NHC Director or designee, requests military reconnaissance of tropical or subtropical cyclones in their area of responsibility, and
c. Makes requests for running specialized numerical guidance models.
2.3.3 Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The JTWC shall support U.S. Government interests for the tropical cyclone program for the western North Pacific Ocean west of 180.
2.4 National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).
2.4.1 Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC). HPC shall:
a. Issue forecasts for tropical depressions once they have moved inland over the U.S. and for the near term (within the next one to two days) when redevelopment is not expected.
b. Issue numbered storm summaries on subtropical or named tropical cyclones which have moved inland over the conterminous U.S. for which advisories are no longer required but the threat of flood-producing rainfall continues.
2.4.1.1 HPC's National Precipitation Prediction Unit (NPPU). NPPU shall provide NHC quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) information for inclusion in advisories for storms expected to affect the contiguous United States. NPPU shall provide QPF to River Forecast Centers (RFCs) and provide consultation to field offices during flood threats.
2.4.2 Storm Prediction Center (SPC). SPC shall issue severe thunderstorm and tornado watches as required for the continental U.S. (CONUS) affected by tropical and subtropical cyclones regardless of intensity.
2.4.3 NCEP Central Operations (NCO). NCO shall run all appropriate numerical models. NCO shall run the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model when requested by the NHC Director or their designate.
2.5 National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS). NESDIS, through its Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), shall:
a. Provide satellite derived tropical cyclone location and intensity estimates to HPC and Tropical Cyclone Centers,
b. Issue satellite precipitation estimates (product SPENES) for all tropical cyclones or decayed tropical cyclones which have moved inland over the contiguous U.S.,
c. Provide a tropical rainfall potential (TRAP) for tropical cyclones west of 60 making landfall within 24 hours.
2.6 River Forecast Centers (RFC). RFCs shall provide hydrologic support to the tropical cyclone program as stated in WSOM E-11.
2.7 Weather Forecast Offices (WFO). WFOs shall:
a. Issue specific products designed to inform media, local decision makers, and the public on present and anticipated storm effects in their county warning area (CWA),
b. Maintain consistency among all products they issue and the latest advisories issued by NHC, CPHC, JTWC, or HPC, and
c. Notify the appropriate supporting Tropical Cyclone Center whenever they observe any new development of possible interest to the Center, i.e., spiral bands, detection of the eye, significant changes in movement or intensity, etc.
2.8 WFO Tiyan, Guam. WFO Guam, shall provide tropical cyclone public advisories for Micronesia and the Mariana Islands using the JTWC Warning/Advisory information as guidance.
2.9 Weather Service Offices (WSO). WSO Hilo and Lihue, Hawaii, have the same responsibilities as WFOs until September 1, 2000.
3. Tropical Cyclone Procedures and Products. Appendices A through H detail tropical cyclone procedures and products.
APPENDIX A - PROCEDURES AND PRODUCTS
NOTE: Refer to appendix B for tropical cyclone product examples.
1. Tropical Cyclone Center and HPC non-forecast Issuances.
1.1 Satellite Interpretation Message (SIM). CPHC shall issue these products four times a day for the Hawaiian Islands, with updates as required, describing synoptic features and significant weather areas. Transmit messages at 0530, 1130, 1730, 2330 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time).
1.2 Tropical Weather Discussion (TWD). The Tropical Analysis Forecast Branch (TAFB) shall issue these products four times a day, twice a day by CPHC, to describe significant synoptic weather features and significant weather areas in the tropics. One TAFB message shall cover the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the Atlantic between the equator and 32 north latitude and be transmitted at 0605, 1205, 1805, 0005 UTC. A second TAFB message for the eastern Pacific between the equator and 32 north and east of 140 west shall be transmitted at 0735, 1335, 1935, 0135 UTC. CPHC shall prepare messages for the central Pacific (30N to 20S, 140W to 180) and a second one for the western Pacific (20N to 20S, 180 to 100E) to be transmitted at 1000 and 2200 UTC.
1.3 Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO). NHC and CPHC shall prepare the TWO during their respective tropical cyclone seasons. The outlook covers tropical and subtropical waters and discusses significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone development out to 48 hours. The outlook shall mention tropical and subtropical cyclones, including the system's location (in either general terms or map coordinates), status, and change in status. For the first 24 hours of a tropical cyclone, the outlook shall include a statement identifying the NWS product header and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) headers for the advisory (appendix D). In the Atlantic, transmission times are 0530, 1130, 1730, and 2230 Eastern local time. In the eastern Pacific, transmission times are 0400, 1000, 1600, and 2200 Pacific local time; and in the central Pacific, 0200, 0800, 1400 and 2000 UTC.
1.4 Tropical Weather Summary (TWS). Each Tropical Cyclone Center shall prepare this product each month summarizing the previous month's tropical cyclone activity. The last TWS of the season shall summarize November's activity plus the activity for the whole season.
1.5 Special Tropical Disturbance Statement (DSA). NHC and CPHC shall issue these products providing information on strong formative, non-depression systems and shall focus on major threats of the disturbance, such as the potential for torrential rains on island or inland areas. NHC and CPHC shall coordinate with appropriate local NWS weather offices.
1.6 Storm Summaries (SCCNS1-5). The HPC shall write Storm Summaries after subtropical and named tropical cyclones have moved inland and advisories have been discontinued. Storm summaries shall not be issued for storms entering the coast of Mexico not posing an immediate flash flood threat to the conterminous United States. Summaries are issued at 0500, 1100, 1700, and 2300 UTC, except the first in a series may be issued at an unscheduled time. Storm Summaries shall continue to be numbered in sequence with Tropical Cyclone Advisories and shall reference the former storm's name in the text. Storm Summary content shall refer to the decaying system's position, intensity, general forecast trends, highlight impacts which occurred and are expected to occur (usually in relation to heavy rain/flooding and tornadoes), and indicate when the next summary will be issued. Summaries shall terminate when the threat of flash flooding has ended or when the remnants of these storms can no longer be distinguished from other synoptic features capable of producing flash floods.
* 1.7 Marine Interpretation Messages (MIM). The Marine Prediction Center (MPC) shall issue the MIM four times a day for the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans to describe significant weather and winds, wind waves, and swells across the coastal and offshore areas. The Atlantic issuance times are 0130, 0730, 1330, and 1930 UTC. Pacific issuance times are 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC. A graphic wind wave analysis (NFDGPHRA1) is also available.
2. Tropical Cyclone Advisory Products.
2.1 Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories (TCP). The TCP is the primary tropical cyclone information product issued to the public. The TPC, CPHC and WFO Guam, shall issue TCPs on the criteria set in section 2.1.1.
2.1.1 Issuance Criteria. In the Atlantic and central Pacific, TPC and CPHC shall issue TCPs for all tropical cyclones. In the eastern Pacific, TPC shall issue public advisories when watches or warning are required, or the tropical cyclone is otherwise expected to impact nearby land areas. In the western Pacific, WFO Guam shall issue public advisories for all tropical cyclones expected to affect land within 48 hours. Issue the initial advisory when data confirm a tropical cyclone has developed. The title of the advisory shall depend upon the intensity of the tropical cyclone.
1-minute sustained surface winds 34 to 63 knots (39 to 73 mph).
* 2.1.2 Issuance Times. TPC and CPHC shall issue public advisories at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC with valid position times corresponding to the advisory time. WFO Guam issuance times are 0400, 1000, 1600, and 2200 UTC.
2.1.3 Format and Content. Advisories can begin with a lead statement or headline to emphasize significant aspects of the tropical cyclone. Advisories shall list watches and warnings for hurricane/typhoon and tropical storm conditions immediately after the headline. Separate the headline and watch/warning section from the rest of the advisory. Include information in the rest of the advisory in descending order of importance or urgency. At the end of the advisory, repeat the tropical cyclone position, maximum winds, minimum pressure, present movement, and provide forecast movement (if change is indicated). Provide the time and office responsible for the next advisory along with new message headers if the tropical cyclone is passed to another Center. Finally, include the forecaster's name at the end of the message.
2.1.3.1 Terms and Units. Times in advisories should be local time of the affected area; however, local time and UTC should be used when noting the storm's location. All advisories shall use statute miles and statute miles per hour. The Tropical Cyclone Center, at its discretion, may use nautical miles/knots in parentheses immediately following statute miles/mph. Atlantic advisories should include the metric units of kilometers and kilometers per hour following the equivalent English units except when the United States is the only country threatened.
Do not use the term "SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY." Instead, use the phrase "SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT." This is considered equivalent or even stronger when used in connection with tropical or subtropical cyclones. When discontinuing tropical cyclone warnings for a given coastal section where small craft advisories are to remain in effect, use the following statement: "SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST. SEE LOCAL NWS COASTAL FORECASTS FOR CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA." The NHC advisory discontinuing tropical cyclone warnings and the following NHC advisory, if one is issued, should contain this statement.
2.1.3.2 Watches and Warnings. TPC, CPHC and WFO Guam, shall issue tropical storm/hurricane watches if tropical storm/hurricane conditions are possible over land areas within 36 hours, except 48 hours in the western North Pacific. Do not issue tropical storm watches if the tropical cyclone is forecast to reach hurricane/typhoon intensity within the watch period.
Issue tropical storm/hurricane warnings when tropical storm/hurricane conditions along the coast are expected within 24 hours. Issue tropical storm warnings at the discretion of the hurricane specialist when gale warnings, not related to the pending tropical storm, are already in place. Tropical storm warnings may be issued on either side of a hurricane/typhoon warning area.
Advisories shall summarize all tropical cyclone watches and warnings in effect. The first advisory in which watches or warnings are mentioned should give the effective time of the watch or warning, except when it is being issued by other countries and the time is not known.
Except for tropical storms and hurricanes/typhoons forming close to land, a watch should precede a tropical cyclone or tropical storm warning. Once a watch is in effect, it should either be replaced by a warning or remain in effect until the threat of the tropical cyclone conditions has passed. A hurricane/typhoon watch and a tropical storm warning can be in effect for the same section of coast at the same time. It is not advantageous to step down warnings for tropical cyclones. This approach would cause confusion for the media and public, and this is especially true for tropical cyclones whose tracks parallel the coast.
2.1.3.3 Location and Movement. All advisories shall include the location of the center of the tropical cyclone by its latitude and longitude and distance and direction from a well known point, preferably downstream from the tropical cyclone. If the forecaster is unsure of the exact location of a depression, the position may be given as within 50, 75, etc., miles of a map coordinate. When the center of the tropical cyclone is over land, give its position referencing the state or country in which it is located and in respect to some well known city, if appropriate.
Movement forecasts apply to the tropical cyclone's center. Give the present movement to 16 points of the compass if possible. Include a 24-hour forecast of movement in terms of a continuance or departure from the present movement and speed. This may be reduced to a 12-hour forecast. Uncertainties in either the tropical cyclone's location or movement should be explained in the advisory. An outlook beyond 24 hours (out to 72 hours when appropriate) may be included in the text of the advisory.
Make landfall forecasts of the center with caution to avoid giving the public any false sense of security. Use other forecast parameters to describe the center's landfall. When a threat to land exists, stress the tropical cyclone's effects extend well beyond the small area near the tropical cyclone's center.
2.1.3.4 Wind and Intensity. Give maximum observed 1-minute sustained surface wind speed. During landfall threats, specific gust values and phrases like "BRIEFLY HIGHER IN SQUALLS" may be used. Also include the area (or radius) of both tropical and hurricane force winds. When warnings are in effect, give the expected times of onset of tropical storm and hurricane/typhoon force winds along the coast in general terms, such as "this afternoon" or "tonight."
Provide intensity forecasts for 12 hours only stated as an "increase," "decrease," or "no change" from the present intensity. The storm may also be compared to some memorable hurricane or referred to by relative intensity. Where appropriate, use the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS) in public releases.
2.1.3.5 Pressure. Provide central pressure values in millibars and inches as determined by available data.
2.1.3.6 Storm Surge. Storm surge forecasts should specify time(s) of significant heights at areas along the coast and should include wave information if possible. When discussing storm surges, it should be indicated these values are above normal tide levels and in a qualitative sense, when surges are expected to occur during abnormally high and low astronomical tides.
* 2.1.3.7 Inland Effects. Highlight the inland effects of tropical cyclones in advisories. This includes the threat of strong winds, heavy rainfall, flooding, and tornadoes. Include the extent and magnitude of inland winds as well as anticipated rainfall amounts and potential for flooding and tornadoes. Mention tornado and flood watches as appropriate. Mention actual occurrences of tornadoes, floods, and high winds adding a note of urgency and supporting warnings and statements from local offices.
Action statements in advisories should be general with references to local office products for specific recommended actions.
To further publicize local products, when a tropical cyclone threatens a land area, include the following statement in the TCP: "For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office."
2.1.4 Intermediate Public Advisories. Issue these products on a 2- to
3-hourly interval between scheduled advisories (see times of issuance below). Issue 3-hourly intermediate advisories whenever a tropical storm or hurricane watch/warning is in effect. Issue 2-hourly intermediates whenever tropical storm or hurricane warnings are in effect and coastal radars are able to provide responsible Tropical Cyclone Centers with a reliable hourly center position. For clarity, whenever the Tropical Cyclone Center is issuing intermediates, include a statement at the end of the scheduled public advisory informing customers when an intermediate advisory shall be issued, i.e., "AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM PST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT 5 PM PST."
Do not use intermediate advisories to issue tropical cyclone watches or warnings. They can be used to clear all, or parts of, a watch or warning area. Content should be similar to the scheduled advisory.
2.1.5 Special Public Advisories. Special public advisories are unscheduled products issued whenever an unexpected change has occurred requiring a revised forecast or a tropical storm/hurricane watch or warning.
2.2 Tropical Cyclone Forecasts/Advisories (TCM). NHC and CPHC shall prepare these products for all tropical cyclones within their area of responsibility. All advisories shall contain 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, and 72-hour forecast positions unless the tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate.
2.2.1 Issuance Times. Issue advisories at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC.
2.2.2 Format and Content. Tropical Cyclone Forecasts/Advisories shall contain appropriate information as shown in appendix B. All advisories shall contain 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, and 72-hour forecast positions. A standard statement indicating the uncertainty associated with the 48- and 72-hour forecast positions shall precede those two forecasts.
NOTE: As part of the header, append a code string at the end of the line "NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL."
Format: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL BSNOYR
where: (BS) is the basin (AL, EP or CP)
where: (NO) is the tropical cyclone number (01, 02, 03,...99)
where: (YR) is the last two digits of the year.
A Special Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory updates a scheduled advisory if unexpected changes have occurred in a tropical cyclone. Content of the special advisory shall reflect significant changes requiring the special advisory to be issued. Issue Special Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisories in conjunction with the issuance of a Special Public Advisory.
2.3 Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD). Tropical Cyclone Centers issue this product to explain forecasters' reasoning behind analysis and forecast of the tropical cyclone.
2.3.1 Issuance Times. NHC and CPHC shall issue tropical cyclone discussions at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC and with all special advisories.
2.3.2 Format and Content. Discussions include prognostic reasoning; objective techniques employed; NHC, CPHC, and HPC guidance used; coordinated 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, and 72-hour tropical cyclone forecast points (unless the tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate, in which case points shall be given only to that point in time); maximum sustained wind speed forecasts for each forecast point; other meteorological decisions; and plans for watches and warnings.
2.4 Tropical Cyclone Updates (TCU). These products, brief statements issued by Tropical Cyclone Centers in lieu of or preceding special advisories, inform of significant changes in a tropical cyclone or post or cancel watches and warnings.
2.5 Tropical Cyclone Position Estimate (TCE). Tropical Cyclone Centers and WFO Guam shall issue a position estimate between 2-hourly intermediate public advisories whenever sufficient reliable radar center fix information is available. Position estimates provide location in map coordinates, distance, and direction from a well known point. Transmit position estimates near the beginning of the hour. Local weather offices shall use this information in all official statements.
2.6 Strike Probabilities of Tropical Cyclone Conditions (SPF). NHC shall issue probabilities for tropical depressions forecast to become named storms and be a threat to land within 72 hours. This product shall describe the probability of tropical cyclone conditions in tabular form at the regularly scheduled public advisory times and when special public advisories are issued. Issue these probabilities for all named storms in the Atlantic Basin forecast within 72 hours of landfall. Include maximum values over water points when a tropical cyclone is forecast to move parallel to a coastline.
2.6.1 Exceptions. Two conditions in which probability information should not be issued are: (1) the tropical cyclone/tropical storm has made landfall and is not expected to reemerge over water, and/or (2) computed probability values are not significant. NHC may discontinue issuance of probabilities earlier if other factors arise, such as difficulties with evacuation orders, etc. At the discretion of the hurricane forecaster, probabilities need not be listed for sites where the tropical storm or hurricane would likely be over land or less than tropical storm strength at the time it would affect the site.
2.6.2 Format. Compute the probabilities shortly after synoptic times for the periods 0-24, 24-36, 36-48, and 48-72 hours. Show a total probability for the next 72 hours in the last column, representing a total of all forecast periods. Indicate in the table with an "X" if the probability for a location is less than 1 percent. Indicate in the public advisory and tropical cyclone forecast/advisory if probabilities are not issued. NHC may include a brief explanation of probabilities in the advisory. Refer to Probability of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Conditions: A User's Manual for further information.
Compute probabilities for the following locations:
Brownsville, Texas Ft. Pierce, Florida
Corpus Christi, Texas Cocoa Beach, Florida
Port O'Connor, Texas Daytona Beach, Florida
Galveston, Texas Jacksonville, Florida
Port Arthur, Texas Savannah, Georgia
New Iberia, Louisiana Charleston, South Carolina
New Orleans, Louisiana Myrtle Beach, South Carolina
Buras, Louisiana Wilmington, North Carolina
Gulfport, Mississippi Morehead City, North Carolina
Mobile, Alabama Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
Pensacola, Florida Norfolk, Virginia
Panama City, Florida Ocean City, Maryland
Apalachicola, Florida Atlantic City, New Jersey
St. Marks, Florida New York, New York
Cedar Key, Florida Montauk Point, New York
Tampa, Florida Providence, Rhode Island
Venice, Florida Nantucket Island, Massachusetts
Fort Myers, Florida Hyannis, Massachusetts
Marco Island, Florida Boston, Massachusetts
Key West, Florida Portland, Maine
Marathon, Florida Bar Harbor, Maine
Miami, Florida Eastport, Maine
West Palm Beach, Florida
29N 85W 28N 93W
29N 87W 28N 95W
28N 89W 27N 96W
28N 91W 25N 96W
NOTE: Do not issue probabilities for the west coast of the continental United States, Hawaii, Guam, or Micronesia.
3. Subtropical Cyclone Advisory Products.
3.1 Subtropical Cyclone Public Advisories (TCP). The Tropical Cyclone Centers shall issue subtropical cyclone public advisories. Format and content of these products are similar to the public tropical cyclone advisory. (See appendix B for an example). Title the advisories "SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION/STORM ADVISORY." In the message body, always refer to subtropical depressions/storms as "DEPRESSIONS/STORMS." List information in order of importance with a lead statement, when appropriate, followed by a summary of all coastal warnings. If the center of a subtropical cyclone is poorly defined, its location in distance and direction from a well known point may be used. If the center is identifiable, use latitude and longitude coordinates. Issue these advisories at the same scheduled times as public tropical cyclone advisories.
a. Special Subtropical Public Cyclone Advisories. Issue these advisories to (1) update previously scheduled advisories whenever an unexpected significant change has occurred in the cyclone or (2) to issue warnings.
b. Intermediate Advisories. The function of these advisories is similar to the public intermediate advisory. Issue these advisories on a 2- or 3-hourly interval between scheduled advisories whenever a subtropical cyclone affects or is forecast to affect a coast. Whenever the NHC issues intermediates, include a statement at the end of the scheduled public subtropical cyclone advisory, communicating the time of the next intermediate advisory issuance.
3.2 Subtropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory (TCM). Issue these advisories for all subtropical cyclones within a Tropical Cyclone Center's area of responsibility. Write the advisory in a format and content similar to tropical cyclone forecast/advisories. Title the advisory "SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION/STORM ## FORECAST/ADVISORY." In the body of the message, always refer to a subtropical depression/storm as "DEPRESSION/STORM ##." Issue these at the same times as scheduled tropical cyclone forecast/advisories.
Special Subtropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisories are issued to update any unexpected change which occurred with the subtropical cyclone. Format remains the same as the scheduled advisory being replaced. Issue these with every special subtropical cyclone public advisory.
4. Numbering and Naming Tropical and Subtropical Cyclones.
* 4.1 Numbering Tropical Depressions. The Tropical Cyclone Centers shall number tropical depressions in their areas of responsibility. Number tropical depressions consecutively beginning each season with the spelled out number "ONE." In the Pacific, for ease in differentiation, tropical depression numbers, assigned by NHC or CPHC, shall include the suffix "E" (for eastern) or "C," (for central) respectively, after the number. Retain this assigned identifier even if the depression passes into another warning area within the Pacific Ocean. In both the Atlantic and Pacific, once the depression reaches tropical storm intensity, name it and drop the depression number. The depression number will not be used again until the following year.
* 4.2 Numbering Subtropical Cyclones. Numbering of subtropical cyclones shall follow the same procedure as in Section 4.1. However, use a separate consecutive numbering sequence beginning with "ONE" for subtropical depressions. Continue this even if the system intensifies into a subtropical storm.
* 4.3 Naming Tropical and Subtropical Cyclones. Give tropical cyclones a name in the first advisory after intensifying to 34 knots (39 mph) or greater. If a subtropical cyclone becomes a tropical storm or a hurricane, it receives the next available name in the tropical naming sequence. (If a subtropical cyclone becomes a subtropical storm, it is NOT named, and just the associated number is maintained.) This name shall continue for the tropical cyclone until the last advisory or storm summary is issued, even if the tropical storm/hurricane or typhoon reverts to a depression. An example is:
HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
Retain the name if a named tropical cyclone passes from one basin into another basin.
Number subtropical storms consecutively beginning each season with the spelled out number "ONE." In headers, use the term "SUBTROPICAL." For example, the header of the third public advisory on the second subtropical storm would be "SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3." The header for the Subtropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory would be "SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3."
5. Numbering Advisories and Tropical Cyclone Discussions. Number tropical and subtropical cyclone advisories and discussions in the Atlantic and the Pacific similarly. Number scheduled and special advisories and TCDs consecutively beginning with the number 1 (not spelled out) for each new tropical or subtropical cyclone, and continue through the duration of the cyclone. In situations where only Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisories and TCDs are being written (tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific not threatening land) and at a later time a public advisory is required, the public advisory number shall match the corresponding Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory. In both the Atlantic and the Pacific, intermediate advisories and TCDs shall retain the advisory number of the scheduled or special advisory they update and append an alphabetic designator (i.e., "HURRICANE ALLISON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A").
* 6. Local NWS Office Products.
6.1 Hurricane/Typhoon Local Statements (HLS). Local offices shall issue these unnumbered products which are very specific and designed to inform media, local decision makers, and the public on present and anticipated storm effects in their CWA and adjacent coastal waters. Keep HLSs as succinct as possible.
6.1.1 Issuance Criteria. A local NWS forecast offices shall issue a HLS when its area of responsibility is affected by: (1) a tropical cyclone watch/warning, (2) evacuation orders, or (3) rumors the local meteorologist in charge (MIC) believes should be countered by appropriate statements.
6.1.2 Issuance Times. When a tropical storm or hurricane is close to the coast, issue HLSs every 2 to 3 hours or more frequently as circumstances warrant. Do not release HLSs immediately before an advisory unless information is coordinated with the appropriate Tropical Cyclone Center and, for watches or warnings, the valid initiation time is specified. HLSs do not need to immediately follow the issuance of a new hurricane advisory. Issuing HLSs midway between advisories maintains a steady flow of information to the media and the public. Whenever a new advisory changes the potential impact on a local area, information needs to be distributed in a fresh HLS as soon as possible. Routine HLSs may cease when the tropical cyclone is no longer a threat to an office's CWA.
6.1.3 Content. HLSs shall add localized details to Tropical Cyclone Center's advisory releases and shall not conflict with or repeat advisory information not directly applicable to the local office's CWA. Before the first HLS, use public information statements (PNS) to inform the public on routine hurricane preparedness information. The first HLS can also contain standard preparedness messages. Information may be added to the end of the HLS describing where additional storm information can be found in supporting Center's TCP and TCM as well as PNSs and NOWs (Short term Forecast) issued by the local office. Issue tornado, severe thunderstorm, and flash flood warnings independent of HLSs as stand-alone products. An HLS can take the place of severe weather, special weather, marine weather, coastal flood, and flash flood statements during storm situations. HLSs should use tropical cyclone position estimates between advisories when appropriate. An HLS shall include those counties under an Inland High Wind Watch/Warning for Hurricane Force Winds to help focus the threat for impacted inland counties. When tropical cyclones threaten the Samoas(American Samoa and Samoa), the two local offices shall coordinate with RSMC Nadi, CPHC, and with each other to determine the best integrated and internally consistent forecast of conditions expected in the area.
6.1.4 Format. Use the standardized format with "headlines by hazard" in accordance with instructions and examples in appendix B. Prepare each section of the HLS by a content/topic header set off by three dots before and after each header. Be as consistent as possible with the order of information. Prioritize and adjust the order to focus on the greatest threat and the most important information impacting the area.
Essential contents of Hurricane Local Statements and Examples:
...Headline...
Concise lead sentence or headline.
...Areas Affected...
Details of which counties, parishes, or cities are included in the HLS.
...Watches Warnings...
Watches and warnings in effect and counties or parishes to which they apply.
* ...Storm Information...
Present location, movement, and winds and expected time of onset of tropical storm/hurricane/typhoon force winds. Give timing of impacts in ranges or general terms such as "afternoon," "evening," and so on. Use the tropical cyclone forecast/advisory as guidance.
...Precautionary/Preparedness Actions...
Short-term precautionary actions and times they should be completed.
This includes any evacuation recommendations contained in the advisory or stated by local authorities. Listing these actions is particularly important once a tropical cyclone watch or warning is announced.
...Storm Surge Flood and Storm Tide impacts...
Storm surge and storm tide (storm surge plus astronomical tide)
information, including times various heights are expected, present heights, and their locations. Storm surge information must agree with Tropical Cyclone Center forecasts as included in the advisories. Include storm tide information because local officials might not have access to tide tables. Reference storm tide forecasts to appropriate datums understood by local authorities. For many portions of the coast, this would be mean sea level although some areas use mean lower low water.
...Tornado impacts...
Any required statements on potential tornado and flood/flash flood threats, rip currents, beach erosion, high wind warnings inland, etc.
...Wind impacts...
Present winds and expected time of onset of Tropical Storm or Hurricane force winds. (Use the tropical cyclone forecast/advisory as guidance.)
...Probability of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Conditions...
Information on probability of hurricane/typhoon/tropical storm conditions is optional.
...Next Update...
Time of next or final statement.
* 6.1.5 Relationship of HLSs to the NOW. The NOW is a stand-alone product focused on conditions impacting the office's CWA for the next 0 to 6 hours. It will complement the HLS by providing critical storm information in the first eight lines.
6.1.6 Optional Use of Special Weather Statements for Probability of Tropical Cyclone Conditions (SPS). Use Special Weather Statements (SPS) to briefly describe tropical cyclone probabilities prior to HLS release. These statements are needed four times a day following the issuance of probabilities in the 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC hurricane or tropical storm advisories, or following the issuance of special advisories. Refer to the probabilities in the "totals" column instead of various time periods. Include the probability for your area with an explanation on how such a probability compares to the surrounding coastal sections.
6.2 Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm, and Flash Flood Warnings (TOR/SVR/FFW). Issue warnings when conditions warrant.
6.3 Inland High Wind Watches and Warnings for Hurricane Force Winds (NPW). When a tropical cyclone is expected to remain at hurricane intensity well inland, the local NWS forecast offices shall issue inland high wind watches and warnings for hurricane force winds. Do not normally issue Inland High Wind Watches for Hurricane Force Winds beyond the second period of the forecast or warnings beyond the first period. Use the wind fields from the Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory from NHC as guidance. When the effects of the tropical cyclone can be clearly described to the public and not lead to confusion, inland sections of coastal counties may be placed under Inland High Wind Watches or Warnings for Hurricane Force Winds versus using tropical cyclone watches or warnings. Coordination shall occur with all impacted offices and NHC before issuance. The appropriate forecasts and statements shall highlight watches and warnings.
6.4 Inland High Wind Watches and Warnings for Subtropical and Extratropical Storms. Local NWS forecast offices shall issue Inland High Wind Watches and Warnings for Hurricane Force Winds when a subtropical or extratropical storm is expected to spread hurricane force winds well inland.
* 7.1 Preliminary Post-Storm Reports (PSH). All local NWS forecast offices issuing HLSs on a storm shall prepare preliminary post-storm reports. Non-coastal offices issuing Inland High Wind Watches/Warnings for Hurricane Force Winds shall also submit preliminary reports. Other offices shall prepare preliminary reports at the request of appropriate Tropical Cyclone Center(s). Transmit preliminary reports within 5 days following the transmission of the last HLS. Address all preliminary reports to the appropriate Tropical Cyclone Center or National Center and a copy to WSH, W/OM12. Inland offices impacted by a tropical cyclone or its remnants shall provide the same information via a local storm report (LSR).
* 7.1.1 Content: Include the following items in preliminary reports and in any subsequent updated reports:
* a. Wind data: Report highest 1-minute sustained surface wind speed (knots), peak gust (knots), and date/times of occurrence in UTC. Specify anemometer height (feet) if other than 33 feet and duration (minutes) if other than a 1-minute sustained average. Report all NWS/DOT/DOD official observing sites in a NWS office's CWA including commissioned and noncommissioned ASOS sites, all NOAA buoy and Coastal Marine Automated Network (C-MAN) stations in the office's CWA, and all other reliable data collected by government sources or other institutions in the office's CWA. These include reports from stations maintained by the U. S. Coast Guard (USCG), state, county, and local governments, universities, private companies, and experimental networks. List adjusted speeds corrected for instrument type and speed range if known. Data reports from the public are optional. However, NWS offices should encourage these data and include them in the PSH when considered reliable.
* b. Pressure data: Report lowest sea level pressure (millibars), and date/time of occurrence (UTC). Report data from all sources given in
Section a.
* c. Storm total rainfall: Report amount (inches) and duration (dates). In addition, list maximum 1-, 6-, 12-, and 24-hour amounts (inches) identifying date/time (UTC) of occurrence. Report data from all sources given in Section a.
d. Maximum storm tide heights: Report feet (ASL - above sea level) and storm surge heights (feet) above normal. Identify location and date/time (UTC) of occurrence.
e. Extent of beach erosion: As appropriate.
f. Flooding and/or flash flooding in CWA: Report to include date/times (UTC) and locations of occurrence.
g. Tornadoes in CWA: Report (times and locations).
h. Preliminary storm effects: Such as deaths, injuries, dollar damages, number of people evacuated, etc., within an office's CWA.
7.2 Information for Service Assessments. Local offices shall forward a copy of media reports, especially newspaper clippings (online and printed) representative of the event and its impacts. Send reports to the appropriate RH and TPC within 7 days following the issuance of the last product concerning the storm. Reports do not have to include all interviews or radio or television spots concerning the landfall event in each local office's CWA.
* 7.3 Storm Data Reports. Local NWS forecast offices shall prepare these reports in accordance with WSOM Chapter F-42, Storm Data and Related Reports.
* 7.4 Preliminary Reports. NHC and CPHC shall prepare a final track chart and summary of each tropical cyclone occurring in their area of responsibility. Make copies available no later than 90 days after the last advisory on each tropical cyclone. Post products on the Internet (TPC products at www.tpc.noaa.gov). Mail products upon request.
NHC shall prepare a tropical cyclone season data tabulation for the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. CPHC shall prepare similar summaries for the central Pacific. Distribute all tabulations to appropriate government agencies.
8. Correction Procedures. If a correction needs to be issued for any tropical cyclone product, list the reason for the correction immediately after the header of the corrected product.
9.1 Tropical Cyclone Forecasts and Advisories.
9.1.1 Atlantic and U.S. Mainland West Coast. NHC, MPC and HPC shall exchange forecast positions for tropical cyclones and depressions. HPC shall prepare and coordinate forecast positions four times each day (0200, 0800, 1400, 2000 UTC) for all tropical cyclones with an initial position west of
60W, and MPC shall do the same for all tropical cyclones for all latitudes east of 60W. These shall include positions for use by HPC and MPC on graphic charts through 72 hours. HPC and MPC shall place on its prognostic charts NHC's and CPHC's tropical cyclone forecast position out to 72 hours. Unnamed systems forecast to attain tropical storm or hurricane/typhoon strength during the forecast period shall have their prognostic positions labeled as a tropical cyclone. Forecast positions shall be for 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, and
72-hours based on latest 6 hourly synoptic times. For extended forecast charts (day 3, 4 and 5), use appropriate tropical cyclone symbols on the day 3 chart, and depict the storm as a low for days 4 and 5. NHC shall provide HPC and MPC with regular 3-hourly map-time positions for use in HPC and MPC surface analysis (0000, 0300, 0600 UTC, etc.).
NHC and HPC shall coordinate the issuance and discontinuance of watches and warnings, storm surge, and other storm parameters. Include HPC's NPPU in coordination calls whenever NHC plans to include QPF amounts (usually 24-hour forecasts or less) for the United States mainland in tropical cyclone advisories. Make final coordination calls 1 hour before advisory time. NHC shall involve all impacted regional offices, local NWS forecast offices, and marine offshore and high seas forecast offices (MPC, TAFB) in the coordination call with HPC. NHC shall make every effort to coordinate with these offices prior to the conference call, resources permitting, if issuing or canceling watches or warnings.
9.1.2 Pacific. NHC and CPHC shall coordinate whenever a tropical cyclone is between 137 and 143 west longitude. In the event of a disagreement, the Center issuing the next advisory shall make the final decision.
9.2 Other Advisories. NHC and HPC shall coordinate on downgrading tropical and subtropical cyclones moving inland. HPC shall also coordinate with NHC if there is a reasonable possibility advisories may again be needed. This coordination shall take place not more than 90 minutes before storm summary release time. HPC shall coordinate with appropriate RFCs and critical flood support office(s) regarding inland flooding threats.
9.3 Flooding. Tropical Cyclone Centers shall include flood information in their advisories and initiate coordination calls. RFCs and local NWS forecast offices shall provide input to their Tropical Cyclone Center regarding flood potential. NPPU products shall be consistent with advisory issuing offices. The NESDIS SAB shall provide satellite estimates of rainfall to NWS offices and the NHC.
9.4 Tornadoes. SPC shall issue tornado watches as required for CONUS areas affected by tropical and subtropical cyclones after coordination with NHC and WFOs. For CONUS areas, the SPC shall be the single coordinated voice of the NWS regarding tornado threat. HLS's shall convey the level of tornadic threat forecast by SPC based upon SPC products. Tropical Cyclone Centers shall include appropriate information about tornadoes in their advisories. NWS offices San Juan, Puerto Rico, and Tiyan, Guam, shall cover any tornadoes or water spouts expected in their area of responsibility in HLSs and warnings.
9.5 Military Services. The NWS is the basic source of tropical cyclone forecasts for all Department of Defense interests in the North Pacific east of 180 and for the North Atlantic as provided by interdepartmental agreements in the NHOP. In the event military interests in the Atlantic area wish to discuss special problems concerning the warnings and forecasts, they shall contact the TPC Director or designated alternate by telephone. In the Pacific, the TPC Director or the CPHC, or their designated alternates, shall provide similar services to the military.
* 10. Backup of Tropical Cyclone Centers. In the event of operational failure of a Tropical Cyclone Center, transfer responsibilities to the appropriate alternate facility in accordance with existing directives. Refer to WSOM Chapter J-03, Backup Operations and Site Evacuations, and NHOP for details.
Primary and backup facilities are:
PRIMARY BACKUP FACILITY
NHC HPC/TDL
CPHC NHC
TAFB MPC
JTWC NAVPACMETOCCEN, Yokosuka
10.1 In the event NHC loses operating capabilities, HPC shall assume backup operations of NHC. NHC, co-located with TAFB, has warning service responsibility for the Atlantic and for the eastern Pacific Ocean, north of the equator and east of 140 west longitude. Backup to NHC requires backup to TAFB. Backup support to TAFB operations requires the assistance of the MPC. Immediately dispatch at least two NHC hurricane specialists to assist in backup operations to HPC if for any reason NHC transfers operations to HPC, and NHC is not able to return to full operations within 12 to 24 hours of transfer. Immediately fly one or two forecasters to MPC to assist in TAFB backup operations. When working in emergency backup mode, the Techniques Development Laboratory, Marine Techniques Branch at WSH, shall assume responsibility for running the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes Model (SLOSH) for HPC and to assist in interpretation.
Backup facilities should implement, at least annually, a backup contingency plan consisting of a comprehensive training program.
10.2 In the event CPHC loses operating capabilities, TPC shall assume all central Pacific tropical cyclone responsibilities through the hurricane specialist unit, and marine and satellite services, through TAFB.
10.3 In the event WFO Guam loses operating capabilities, CPHC shall assume responsibility for issuance of public tropical cyclone advisories.
11. Transfer of Responsibility for Issuing Advisories. When a tropical or subtropical cyclone approaches the line of division between Centers responsible for issuing advisories, the forecaster who is currently handling the storm shall:
a. Contact the Center into whose area the storm is moving to plan for transferring responsibility after the issuance of the next advisory. When a tropical cyclone is approaching 180 longitude, CPHC shall coordinate with both RSMC Tokyo (the WMO designated tropical cyclone center) and JTWC (the U.S. designated center for U.S. interests in the western Pacific) for transferring responsibilities, and
b. Add a statement to the final advisory as follows:
"THE NEXT ADVISORY ON (storm name) WILL BE ISSUED BY THE (appropriate Hurricane Center) AT (time in [UTC])."
Include proper communication and WMO message headers used by the gaining Center in the final advisory. HPC shall issue storm summaries on a subtropical cyclone or named tropical cyclone which has moved inland when advisories are no longer required. NHC shall add to the last advisory an appropriate statement indicating when HPC will begin issuing summaries. NHC shall coordinate with HPC to determine the time of issuance of the first storm summary.
12. Emergency Operating Instructions. National Centers and offices with primary and backup warning and forecast responsibilities for areas within
300 miles of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and east or south of the Appalachian ridges, in Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Guam, on the California coast from Point Conception southward, and in the southern North Pacific shall prepare and keep an up-to-date local Tropical Cyclone Emergency Operations Plan. The Plan should specify actions to be taken. Include the following in the Station Duty Manual:
a. What to do before each tropical cyclone season,
b. What to do when a tropical cyclone constitutes a possible threat to its CWA,
c. What to do when a Tropical Storm, Hurricane or Typhoon Watch, or Inland High Wind Watch for Hurricane Force Winds is issued for its CWA,
d. What to do when a Tropical Storm, Hurricane or Typhoon Warning, or Inland High Wind Warning for Hurricane Force Winds is issued for its CWA, and
e. What to do immediately after the tropical cyclone has passed.
12.1 Emergency Warnings Exercises. Conduct practice exercises, as outlined in WSOM Chapter A-17, before the tropical cyclone season each year. Include the word "EXERCISE" at the beginning and end of each community exercise. Also conduct office backup and other appropriate drills.
12.2 Emergency Action When Warning Not Received or Considered Inadequate. When warnings are not received by local NWS forecast offices or are inadequate to cover current or imminent conditions, local NWS forecast offices should issue HLSs or warnings as needed. Whenever possible, the appropriate local NWS forecast office should contact the appropriate Tropical Cyclone Center and its clearance obtained before such action is taken. However, take immediate action if communications failure prevents clearance or if the delay would jeopardize life or property. Notify the appropriate Tropical Cyclone Center as soon as possible.
* 13. Requesting GFDL Model Guidance. NHC shall make the decision to run the GFDL hurricane model for any tropical or subtropical storm in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific Ocean. NHC shall forward its requests to the NCEP Central Operations Senior Duty Meteorologist (SDM), and the SDM executes the job run. CPHC makes requests for running the GFDL hurricane model in coordination with NHC.
EXAMPLES OF TROPICAL WEATHER PRODUCTS
Example: Tropical Weather Outlook
MIATWOAT
TTAA00 KNHC 110930
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 1992
FOR THE ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM LINDA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A WELL ORGANIZED CLOUD SYSTEM EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA. TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM LINDA CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND AFOS HEADER MIATCMAT2.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FORECASTER PASCH
Examples of Mass News Disseminator Headers:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 3
HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 4
SUBTROPICAL STORM THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
Example: Tropical Depression Public Advisory
* MIATCPAT3
TTAA00 KNHC 070300
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST TUE SEP 07 1999
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
47.5 WEST OR ABOUT 920 MILES....1480 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...15.2 N... 47.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM AST...WEDNESDAY.
FORECASTER AVILA
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
Example: Tropical Storm Public Advisory
* MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC 081500
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOYD ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 08 1999
...FLOYD MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOYD
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST
OR ABOUT 755 MILES...1210 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FLOYD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...15.8 N... 50.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
Example: Hurricane/Typhoon Public Advisory
* MIATCPAT3
TTAA00 KNHC 151500
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOYD ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999
...FRINGES OF HURRICANE CONTINUE TO IMPACT COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA
AND GEORGIA...BUT FLOYD IS HEADING FOR THE CAROLINAS...
AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND IS
NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TITUSVILLE FLORIDA TO
THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS. AT 11 AM EDT...HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF
TITUSVILLE.
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/
VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING CHESAPEAKE
BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.
INTERESTS ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF TITUSVILLE SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOYD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT
260 MILES SOUTH OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.
FLOYD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL...
WHICH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT NEAR THE BORDER OF SOUTH AND NORTH
CAROLINA. ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY U.S. AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.
HEAVY SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST
NORTHWARD TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. REFER TO STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF THE
HURRICANE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTH
AND NORTH CAROLINA.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...29.9 N... 79.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...
125MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 943 MB.
* FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM EDT AND 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
Example: Intermediate Public Advisory
MIATCPAT3
TTAA00 KNHC 151900
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FLOYD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
3 PM EDT WED SEP 15 1999
...FRINGES OF HURRICANE CONTINUE TO IMPACT COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA
AND GEORGIA...BUT FLOYD IS HEADING FOR THE CAROLINAS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH
FLORIDA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. AT 3 PM EDT...WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FROM
FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED FOR
PORTIONS OF GEORGIA LATER TODAY.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/
VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING CHESAPEAKE
BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE
VIRGINIA TO MONTAUK POINT LONG ISLAND...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY AND
LONG ISLAND SOUND.
INTERESTS ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.
AT 3 PM EDT...1900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOYD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES
SOUTH OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.
FLOYD IS MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTHWARD AT 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING...IT IS
OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM COULD MAINTAIN ITS PRESENT
STRENGTH UNTIL LANDFALL TONIGHT. ALL PREPARATIONS IN THE WARNING
AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY U.S. AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE EXPECTED NEAR
AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.
HEAVY SURF ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST
NORTHWARD TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. REFER TO STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF THE
HURRICANE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTH
AND NORTH CAROLINA.
* FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
REPEATING THE 3 PM EDT POSITION...30.8 N... 79.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 947 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
Example: Special Public Advisory
MIATCPAT3
TTAA00 KNHC 241309
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ANDREW SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
900 AM EDT MON AUG 24 1992
...HURRICANE ANDREW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF VENICE TO FLAMINGO AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AT 9 AM EDT A HURRICANE WATCH WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO SABINE PASS TEXAS. ALL OTHER POSTED WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED.
WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL NWS OFFICES FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS IN THEIR AREA.
AT 9 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR APPROXIMATELY 45 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA.
HURRICANE ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 18 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD TO 30 MILES...50 KM FROM THE CENTER WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD TO 140 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.
STORM SURGES OF 5 TO 8 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE HURRICANE. ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA STORM SURGE TIDES ARE DECREASING. PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT INDICATE A STORM SURGE OF 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WAS RECORDED IN BISCAYNE BAY NEAR HOMESTEAD FLORIDA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY.
* FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
REPEATING THE 9 AM EDT POSITION...LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST AND MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT MON.
* Example: Public Advisory Correction
MIATCPAT3
TTAA00 KNHC 241309 COR
HURRICANE ANDREW ADVISORY NUMBER 25...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
500 AM EDT MON AUG 24 1992
...CORRECTION FOR CENTRAL PRESSURE...
BODY OF TEXT
Example: Hurricane Forecast/Advisory
NOTE: As part of the header, a code string is appended at the end of the line "NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL"
Format: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL BSNOYR
where: (BS) is the basin (AL, EP or CP)
where: (NO) is the tropical cyclone number (01, 02, 03,...99)
where: (YR) is the last two digits of the year.
MIATCMAT3
TTAA00 KNHC 211500
HURRICANE BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL0399
1500Z SAT AUG 21 1999
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA SOUTHWARD TO TUXPAN MEXICO.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 94.9W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
EYE DIAMETER 12 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 110SE 45SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
* WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES
ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 94.9W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 94.8W
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 24.4N 95.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.2N 96.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.8N 97.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 94.9W
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.0N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.
Example: Tropical Cyclone Update from - CPHC
HNLTCUCP
TTAA00 KHNL 222000
HURRICANE INIKI TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
100 PM PST SAT AUG 22 1992
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE WINDS IN INIKI HAVE REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SHORTLY AFTER 1 PM PST...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM INIKI HAD INCREASED TO HURRICANE FORCE. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL HURRICANE ADVISORY AT 2 PM PST.
HABLUTZEL
Example: Tropical Cyclone Position Estimate
MIATCEAT
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE HUGO...POSITION ESTIMATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
300 AM AST TUE SEP 19 1989
AT 3 AM AST THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUGO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST. THIS IS APPROXIMATELY 155 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND 220 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND OF THE BAHAMAS.
LAWRENCE
Example: Strike Probabilities of Tropical Cyclone Conditions
MIASPFAT3
TTAA00 KNHC 150900
HURRICANE FLOYD PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FLOYD WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SAT SEP 18 1999
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
33.2N 79.1W 38 2 X X 40 PROVIDENCE RI X X 3 13 16
36.3N 78.0W X 26 6 X 32 NANTUCKET MA X X 2 12 14
40.0N 75.0W X X 18 3 21 HYANNIS MA X X 2 12 14
COCOA BEACH FL 5 X X 1 6 BOSTON MA X X 2 13 15
DAYTONA BEACH FL 20 X X X 20 PORTLAND ME X X 1 14 15
JACKSONVILLE FL 25 X X X 25 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 12 12
SAVANNAH GA 36 1 X X 37 EASTPORT ME X X X 11 11
CHARLESTON SC 41 1 X X 42 ST JOHN NB X X X 10 10
MYRTLE BEACH SC 30 7 X X 37 MONCTON NB X X X 9 9
WILMINGTON NC 15 17 1 X 33 YARMOUTH NS X X X 9 9
MOREHEAD CITY NC 5 19 3 1 28 HALIFAX NS X X X 7 7
CAPE HATTERAS NC 1 13 8 X 22 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 2 2
NORFOLK VA X 11 15 X 26 SYDNEY NS X X X 3 3
OCEAN CITY MD X 2 19 1 22 EDDY POINT NS X X X 4 4
ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 17 4 21 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 3 3
NEW YORK CITY NY X X 12 7 19 BURGEO NFLD X X X 2 2
MONTAUK POINT NY X X 5 11 16
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU
C FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI
D FROM 2AM FRI TO 2AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER GUINEY
NOTE: Above probability table is provided as an example depicting the format. The probabilities included do no necessarily agree with the predicted forecast positions.
Example: Subtropical Cyclone Forecast Products
MIATCPAT1
TTAA00 KNHC 120900
SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 1993
...COASTAL STORM BRINGS FLOOD THREAT TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN THE COASTAL AND PIEDMONT AREAS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD BE PREPARED TO PROTECT THEMSELVES AGAINST FLOODING OR BE READY TO MOVE TO AREAS SAFE FROM FLOODING IF NECESSARY.
HEAVY RAINS FROM THE STORM CENTERED 50 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ARE OCCURRING OVER MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THE STORM IS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH BUT SHOULD SLOW DOWN BY TONIGHT. THIS MEANS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR IN SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND IN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
...................rest of text not shown..............................
Example: Storm Summary
ZCZC NFDSCCNS2
TTAA00 KNFD 291658
STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 58 FOR T.D. "GEORGES"
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...NWS...CAMP SPRINGS MD
1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 1998
AT 1000 AM CDT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH "GEORGES" WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 87.9W...OR ROUGHLY 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE JUST OVER 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH..AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.
AT THE PRESENT TIME...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STILL SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH "GEORGES." LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE STREAMING NORTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS MOISTURE HAS LED TO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS NORTH GEORGIA...WHERE THE MOISTURE IS INTERACTING WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR BEING WRAPPED AROUND WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION HAS BROUGHT AN END TO THE HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTH AND EAST MISSISSIPPI...WHERE ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN.
THE BIG STORY NOW WITH "GEORGES" WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF TORNADOES ALONG ITS EAST EDGE. BANDS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO ADJACENT SOUTH ALABAMA. THIS WILL ADD TO THE VERY HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS THAT HAVE OCCURRED SINCE THE STORM MADE LANDFALL OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY INCLUDE:
...ALABAMA...
BAY MINNETTE (BALDWIN CO) 14.55 INCHES
ALABAMA PORT (MOBILE CO) 13.66 INCHES
MOBILE AIRPORT 12.20 INCHES
AXIS (MOBILE CO) 10.00 INCHES
CHATOM (WASHINGTON CO) 9.80 INCHES
SEMINOLE 9.43 INCHES
...FLORIDA...
MUNSON (SANTA ROSA CO) 25.06 INCHES
PENSACOLA AIRPORT (ESCAMBIA CO) 10.08 INCHES
NICEVILLE (OKALOOSA CO) 10.08 INCHES
...MISSISSIPPI...
LEAKESVILLE (GREENE CO) 8.29 INCHES
SATELLITE AND RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAVE RECEIVED OVER 30 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS A RESULT OF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...THERE ARE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WEST AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
IN ADDITION...SINCE DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEMS FREQUENTLY PRODUCE TORNADOES AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS.
THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY HPC AT 600 PM CDT.
MAUSSER/FORECAST OPERATIONS BRANCH
Example: HLS by Office Expecting a Direct Hit from a Major Hurricane
XXXHLSXXX
TTAA00 XXXX 232200
XXZ018>022-240100-
HURRICANE XXXXXXX LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE XXXXXXXX
XXX PM EDT DAY MON Date Year
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE XXXX TAKING AIM ON SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
...Areas Affected...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF DADE...BROWARD...GLADES...HENDRY...AND COLLIER COUNTIES OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN PREPARATION FOR HURRICANE XXXXX.
...Watches Warnings...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND KEYS INCLUDING DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND COLLIER COUNTY.
...Storm Information...
HURRICANE XXXXXX REMAINS EXTREMELY STRONG WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 150 MPH. AT 5 PM EDT XXXXXX WAS CENTERED 240 MILES EAST OF MIAMI AND MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 16 MPH. AT PRESENT XXXXXX IS COMPARABLE TO THE GREAT 1926 AND 1928 HURRICANES WHICH DEVASTATED SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.
...Precautionary Actions...
RESIDENTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA MUST TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY BEFORE NIGHTFALL. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS IN DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES HAVE ORDERED AN EMERGENCY EVACUATION OF AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING BY HURRICANE TIDES FROM A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. COLLIER...GLADES...AND HENDRY COUNTY OFFICIALS WILL BE ISSUING SPECIFIC INSTRUCTIONS AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN. OFFICIALS OF THE FEDERAL EXECUTIVE BOARD ADVISE ALL FEDERAL EMPLOYEES WITHOUT EMERGENCY RESPONSIBILITIES ARE EXCUSED FROM REPORTING FOR WORK UNTIL THIS EMERGENCY IS OVER. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO AND TV FOR INSTRUCTIONS AS TO WHEN TO RETURN TO WORK. MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS IN THESE COUNTIES AND THE COUNTIES OF DADE...COLLIER...AND BROWARD SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS IF ORDERED TO EVACUATE. MANY OF THE DEATHS IN HURRICANES OCCUR IN MOBILE HOMES.
...Storm Surge and Tide impacts...
THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AS TIDAL STORM SURGES OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL SPREAD INLAND NEAR AND NORTH OF LANDFALL. TIDAL SURGE HEIGHTS MAY REACH 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN BISCAYNE BAY. THE FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL ROUTES IS IMMINENT.
...Wind Impacts...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BEGIN POUNDING DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TOWARD DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS XXXXXX MOVES INLAND AND LOSES SOME OF ITS INTENSITY. HIGH WINDS WILL SPREAD TO THE INTERIOR OF FLORIDA...IN SOME AREAS REACHING HURRICANE FORCE. HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE INLAND COUNTIES OF GLADES AND HENDRY.
...Next Update...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE XXXXX FORECAST OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 9 PM EDT. A RECORDING OF THE LATEST XXXXXXX ADVISORY INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE BY CALLING...XXX-XXX-XXXX.
Example: Short Term Forecast (NOWcast)
BHMNOWMOB
TTAA00 KMOB 192130
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 PM CDT SAT AUG 19 1995
ALZ051>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-192330-
.NOW...
...HURRICANE GARY WILL MOVE ACROSS BALDWIN AND MOBILE COUNTIES BY 530 PM... SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE RAIN BAND MOVES ACROSS. THE RAIN BAND SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS CLARKE...WASHINGTON...AND GEORGE COUNTIES BY 6 PM. BUT PEOPLE IN THESE COUNTIES SHOULD EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
SCATTERED AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI THROUGH 6 PM. BANDS OF STRONG STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. EAST WINDS OF 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST WITH STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVIER RAINFALL NEAR THE RAIN BANDS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.
$$
Example: Special Weather Statement
BHMSPSPNS
TTAA00 KBHM 261400
FLZ001>004-261600-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENSACOLA FL
1000 AM EDT THU AUG 26 1992
...HURRICANE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...
HURRICANE OPHELIA...NOW 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS...IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AT 5 MILES AN HOUR. THE PROBABILITY OF OPHELIA STRIKING PENSACOLA HAS INCREASED TO 12 PERCENT. THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND THE ALABAMA COAST HAVE PROBABILITIES IN THE 10 TO 12 PERCENT RANGE WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR THE REST OF THE GULF COAST. ACCORDINGLY...THE PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THE GREATEST ATTENTION SHOULD BE FOCUSED ON THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND ALABAMA COASTS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR THE NORTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN SOUTH ALABAMA. KEEP TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON OPHELIA.
EXAMPLE: Inland High Wind Watch
CAENPWCAE
TTAA00 KCAE 151430
SCZ001>050-162200-
INLAND HIGH WIND WATCH FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1030 AM EDT WED JUL 15 1995
...AN INLAND HIGH WIND WATCH FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CAROLINA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
HURRICANE JENNIFER IS HEADED FOR SOUTH CAROLINA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED JENNIFER COULD MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN XX AND XX ON THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. JENNIFER IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND IS EXPECTED TO RETAIN WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WELL INLAND AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE TOWARD WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
IF JENNIFER CONTINUES AT ITS PRESENT STRENGTH, SUSTAINED HURRICANE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE WINDS SPREADING INLAND AS FAR AS COLUMBIA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE JENNIFER COULD STILL CONTAIN HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE MIDDAY
THURSDAY.
THIS WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR JENNIFER TO SPREAD WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH CAROLINA. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME OR A HOME THAT AFFORDS LITTLE PROTECTION FROM FLYING GLASS AND DEBRIS...DEVELOP OPTIONS FOR ALTERNATIVE SHELTER NOW.
Example: Inland High Wind Warning
SATNPWHOU
TTAA00 KHGX 101030
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON-GALVESTON TX
600 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 1995
HURRICANE FRED...LOCATED 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TX AT 6 AM CDT...IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND NOON CDT ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FRED IS THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A NORTH NORTHWEST COURSE MOVING ACROSS HOUSTON AND REACHING THE SAN JACINTO NATIONAL FOREST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120 MPH SHOULD BEGIN SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE MORNING.
TXZ177>179-197>199-210>212-102200-
WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-COLORADO-
AUSTIN-WALLER-
...INLAND HIGH WIND WARNING FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 MPH BY 12 NOON AND 80 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 100 MPH BY MID AFTERNOON. 75 MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS FAR INLAND AS HUNTSVILLE...NAVASOTA...AND LAKE LIVINGSTON BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BE PREPARED FOR NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND WIRES. DO NOT CROSS DOWNED WIRES...WHICH MAY STILL BE LIVE.
$$
TXZ226-227-235-213-200-102200-
WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-HARRIS-LIBERTY-
...INLAND HIGH WIND WARNING FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...
WINDS FROM WHARTON TO HOUSTON AND LIBERTY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 MPH THIS MORNING AND 90 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 110 MPH BY MIDDAY...DECREASING TO 50 TO 60 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FLYING DEBRIS WILL POSE A MAJOR THREAT TO ALL STRUCTURES IN THE WARNED AREA...ESPECIALLY GLASS FROM HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS IN DOWNTOWN HOUSTON. PEOPLE LIVING IN MOBILE HOMES AND THOSE CONCERNED ABOUT THE ABILITY OF THEIR HOMES TO WITHSTAND HURRICANE WINDS SHOULD MOVE TO A STRONG BUILDING OR SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. BE PREPARED FOR NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND WIRES. TAKE SHELTER IN SMALL INTERIOR ROOMS OR REINFORCED STRUCTURES.
$$
Example: (Warning information in Public/Marine Forecasts) State Forecast
RDUSFPNC
TTAA00 KRDU 182000
NCZALL-190800-
STATE FORECAST FOR NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH/DURHAM NC
410 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 1991
...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COAST AND SOUNDS...
...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS INCLUDING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS...
.TONIGHT...WINDS INCREASING TO HURRICANE FORCE OVER COASTAL AREAS BY MIDNIGHT AS HURRICANE BOB SKIRTS THE OUTER BANKS. DANGEROUS STORM SURGE CAUSING SERIOUS BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER BANKS AROUND MIDNIGHT AT THE TIME OF HIGHEST TIDE. TORRENTIAL RAINS AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARD DAYBREAK. REMAINDER OF THE STATE...CLOUDY AND WINDY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SHOWERS WEST. LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST. HIGHS IN THE 80S.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS IN THE 80S EXCEPT 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
.FRIDAY...HOT AND HUMID. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS IN THE 70S EXCEPT LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
Example: Preliminary Storm Report
NEWPSHNEW
TTAA00 KNEW 032226
PRELIMINARY STORM REPORT...HURRICANE ANDREW
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
500 PM CDT MON SEP 3 1992
A. HIGHEST WINDS...
NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...
1 - MINUTE 39 KNOTS FROM 150 DEGREES 0950 UTC AUG 26 1992
PEAK GUST 72 KNOTS FROM 020 DEGREES AT 0728 UTC AUG 26 1992
P92 AMOS LOCATED AT SALT POINT, ST. MARY PARISH 19.5N 91.3W
...ETC
B. LOWEST PRESSURE...
LOWEST PRESSURE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT - 960.1 MB AT
0805 UTC AUG 26 1992
...ETC
C. RAINFALL...
NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
STORM TOTAL 5.70 AUG 25-26 1992
1 HOUR TOTAL 0.89 0800-0900 UTC 26 AUG 1992
...ETC
D. STORM TIDES...
MARINA 4.28 2100 UTC AUG 26 1992
N END OF CAUSEWAY 4.94 1100 UTC AUG 26 1992
...ETC
E. BEACH EROSION...
LEVEL OF EROSION PRESENTLY UNKNOWN
...ETC
F. FLOODING...
STORM TIDE FLOODING TO THE ENTIRE LOUISIANA COAST FROM LAKE BORGNE WEST TO VERMILION BAY...ETC
G. TORNADOES...
F3 TORNADO FROM LA PLACE TO RESERVE IN ST JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH...ETC
H. STORM EFFECTS...
TORNADO 2 DEAD 32 INJURED
HURRICANE 4 DEAD UNKNOWN 2 MISSING
AN ESTIMATED ONE AND ONE QUARTER MILLION PEOPLE EVACUATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...ETC
DEFINITIONS
* Advisory. Official information issued by Tropical Cyclone Centers (and Public Advisories issued for the northwest Pacific by WFO Guam, based on the track and intensity provided by JTWC) describing all tropical cyclone watches and warnings in effect along with details concerning tropical cyclone locations, intensity, size, and predicted movement, and precautions which should be taken. Advisories are also issued to describe (a) tropical cyclones prior to issuance of watches and warnings and (b) subtropical cyclones. Within the forecast advisory/products from the tropical cyclone centers, definition of the wind radii is the largest radii of that wind speed found in that quadrant. For example; Tropical Cyclone center's quadrants are defined as NE (0-90), SE (90-180), SW (180-270), and NW (270-0). As an example, given maximum 34 knot radii to 150 nautical miles (nm) at 0 degrees, 90 at 120 degrees, and 40nm at 260 degrees, the following line would be carried in the forecast/advisory: 150NE 90SE 40SW 150NW.
* Eye Wall. An organized band of cumulonimbus clouds immediately surrounding the center of the tropical cyclone.
High Wind Warning. The high winds described here exclude those directly associated with severe local storms. A high wind warning is required when either of the following occur or are expected to occur in the near term:
* Hurricane/Typhoon Eye. The relatively calm center of the tropical cyclone which is more than half surrounded by an eye wall.
* Hurricane/Typhoon Season. The part of the year having a relatively high incidence of tropical cyclones. In the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico, and central North Pacific, the hurricane season is the period from June through November; in the eastern Pacific, May 15 through November 30. In the western North Pacific, the typhoon season is from July 1 to December 15, and tropical cyclones can occur year-round.
Hurricane/Typhoon Warning. A warning when 1-minute sustained surface winds of 64 knots (74 mph) or higher associated with a hurricane or typhoon are expected in a specified coastal area within 24 hours or less. A hurricane or typhoon warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves continue even though winds may be less than hurricane or typhoon force.
* Hurricane/Typhoon Watch. An announcement for specific coastal areas that hurricane/typhoon conditions are possible within 36 hours, except for 48 hours in the western North Pacific.
Hurricane/Typhoon Local Statement (HLS). A public release prepared by local offices in or near a threatened area giving specific details for its county/parish warning area (CWA) on (1) weather conditions, (2) evacuation decisions made by local officials, and (3) other precautions necessary to protect life and property (see section 6.1 for further details).
National Hurricane Operations Plan (NHOP). The NHOP is issued annually by the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research. It documents interdepartmental agreements relating to tropical cyclone observing, warning, and forecasting services. NHC, CPHC, and the JTWC serve as the principal offices in coordinating the day-to-day activities of the NWS in support of the Plan in their region of responsibility.
* Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS). A scale ranging from one to five based on the hurricane's present intensity. This can be used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane. This scale may be used in public hurricane releases although the SSHS may not be applicable for all geographical areas, e.g., Hawaii. In practice, sustained wind speed (the 1-minute averaged wind at the 10-meter elevation with an unobstructed exposure) is the parameter which determines the category.
ONE. Winds 74-95 mph. (64-82 kts.) No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Also, some coastal flooding and minor pier damage.
TWO. Winds 96-110 mph. (83-95 kts.) Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to vegetation, mobile homes, etc. Flooding damages piers and small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.
THREE. Winds 111-130 mph. (96-113 kts.) Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Mobile homes are destroyed. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by floating debris. Terrain may be flooded well inland.
FOUR. Winds 131-155 mph. (114-135 kts.) More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failure on small residences. Major erosion of beach areas. Terrain may be flooded well inland.
FIVE. Winds greater than 155 mph. (greater than 135 kts.) Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Flooding causes major damage to lower floors of all structures near the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas may be required.
Note: A "major" hurricane is one classified as a Category 3 or higher.
Modified Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale for the Central North Pacific
In the central North Pacific, this scale cannot be used to provide an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane. This scale can be used in public hurricane releases and in discussions with the media. It must be clear it is not appropriate to estimate damage or surge/coastal flood potential.
ONE Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kts.)
TWO Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kts.)
THREE Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kts.)
FOUR Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kts.)
FIVE Winds greater than 155 mph (greater than 135 kts.)
Modified Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS) for the Western North Pacific.
For Tropical Depression and Tropical Storm:
Maximum sustained Wind (MSW): 30-49 mph (26-43 kt) and peak gusts 40-64 mph (33-56 kt)
Typical Damage - Damage done to only the flimsiest lean-to type structures. Unsecured light signs blown down. Minor damage to banana trees and near-coastal agriculture, primarily from salt spray. Some small dead limbs, ripe coconuts, and dead palm fronds blown down from trees. Some fragile and tender green leaves blown from trees as papaya and fleshy broad leaf plants.
Coastal Inundation and Wave Action - On windward coasts, sea level rise of less than 2 feet (0.7 m) above normal in open bays and inlets due to storm surge and wind driven waves; breaking waves inside bays can reach
2-3 feet (0.7 - 1.0 m); less than 1 ft (0.3 m) over reefs. Rough surf at reef margin with moderately strong along-shore currents (rip tides) inside reefs.
MSW: 50 - 73 mph (44-63 kt) and peak gusts 65-94 mph (57-81 kt)
Typical Damage - Minor damage to buildings of light material; major damage to huts made of thatch or loosely attached corrugated sheet metal or plywood. Unattached corrugated sheet metal and plywood may become airborne. Wooden signs not supported with guy wires are blown down. Moderate damage to banana trees, papaya trees, and most fleshy crops. Large dead limbs, ripe coconuts, many dead palm fronds, some green leaves, and small branches are blown from trees.
Coastal Inundation and Wave Action - On windward coasts, sea level rise of 2-4 ft (0.7-1.2 m) above normal in open bays and inlets due to storm surge and wind-driven waves; breaking waves inside bays can reach 4-6 ft (1.2-1.8 m); 1-2 ft (0.3-0.7 m) over reefs. Very rough surf at reef margin with strong along-shore currents (rip tides) inside reefs.
FOR TYPHOON:
MSW: 74-95 mph (64-82 kt) and peak gusts 95-120 mph (82-105 kt)
Typical Damage - Corrugated metal and plywood stripped from poorly constructed or termite-infested structures and may become airborne. A few wooden, non-reinforced power poles tilted, and some rotten power poles broken and their attached lines down. Some damage to poorly constructed, loosely attached signs. Major damage to banana trees, papaya trees, and fleshy crops. Some young trees downed when the ground is saturated. Some palm fronds crimped and bent back through the crown of coconut palms; a few palm fronds torn from the crowns of most types of palm trees; many ripe coconuts blown from coconut palms. Less than 10 percent defoliation of shrubbery and trees; up to 10 percent defoliation of tangantangan. Some small tree limbs downed, especially from large bushy and frail trees such as mango, African tulip, poinciana, etc. Overall damage can be classified as minimal.
Coastal Inundation and Wave Action - On windward coasts, sea level rise of 4-6 ft (1.2-1.8 m) above normal in open bays and inlets due to storm surge and wind-driven waves; breaking waves inside bays can reach 5-7 ft (1.5-2.1 m) above normal; 2-3 ft (0.6-1.0 m) additional water across reef. Wind-driven waves may inundate low-lying coastal roads where reefs are narrow. Minor pier damage. Some small craft in exposed anchorages break moorings.
MSW: 96-110 mph (83-95 kt) and peak gusts 121-139 mph (106-121 kt)
Typical Damage - Several rotten wooden power poles snapped and many non-reinforced wooden power poles tilted. Some secondary power lines downed. Damage to wooden and tin roofs, and doors and windows of termite-infested or rotted wooden structures, but no major damage to well-constructed wooden, sheet metal, or concrete buildings. Considerable damage to structures made of light materials. Major damage to poorly constructed, attached signs. Exposed banana trees and papaya trees totally destroyed; 10-20 percent defoliation of trees and shrubbery; up to 30 percent defoliation of tangantangan. Light damage to sugar cane and bamboo. Many palm fronds crimped and bent through the crown of coconut palms and several green fronds ripped from palm trees. Some green coconuts blown from trees. Some trees blown down, especially shallow rooted ones such as small acacia, mango and breadfruit when the ground becomes saturated. Overall damage can be classified as moderate.
Coastal Inundation and Wave Action - On windward coasts, sea level rise of 6-8 ft (1.8-2.4 m) above normal in open bays and inlets due to storm surge and wind-driven waves; breaking waves inside bays can reach 7-9 ft (2.1-2.7 m) above normal; water is about 3-5 ft (1.0-1.5 m) above normal across reef flats. Wind-driven waves will inundate low-lying coastal roads below 4 ft (1.2 m) on windward locations where reefs are narrow. Some erosion of beach areas, some moderate pier damage, and some large boats torn from moorings.
MSW: 111-130 mph (96-113 kt) and peak gusts 140-165 mph (122-144 kt)
Typical damage - A few non-reinforced hollow-spun concrete power poles broken or tilted and many non reinforced wooden power poles broken or blown down; many secondary power lines downed. Practically all poorly constructed signs blown down and some stand-alone steel-framed signs bent over. Some roof, window, and door damage to well-built, wooden and metal residences and utility buildings. Extensive damage to wooden structures weakened by termite infestation, wet-and-dry wood rot, and corroded roof straps (hurricane clips). Non-reinforced cinderblock walls blown down. Many mobile homes and buildings made of light materials destroyed. Some glass failure due to flying debris, but only minimal glass failure due to pressure forces associated with extreme gusts. Some unsecured construction cranes blown down. Air is full of light projectiles and debris. Major damage to shrubbery and trees; up to 50 percent of palm fronds bent or blown off; numerous ripe and many green coconuts blown off coconut palms; crowns blown off of a few palm trees. Moderate damage to sugar cane and bamboo. Some large trees (palm trees), blown down when the ground becomes saturated;
30-50 percent defoliation of most trees and shrubs; up to 70 percent defoliation of tangantangan. Some very exposed panax, tangantangan, and oleander bent over. Overall damage can be classified as extensive.
Coastal Inundation and Wave Action - On windward coasts, sea level rise of 8-12 ft (2.4-3.7 m) above normal in open bays and inlets due to storm surge and wind-driven waves; breaking waves inside bays can reach 11-14 ft (3.3-4.2 m) above normal; water is about 5-8 ft (1.5-2.4 m) above normal across reef flats. Wind-driven waves will inundate low-lying coastal roads below 7 ft (2.1 m) of elevation on windward locations where reefs are narrow. Considerable beach erosion. Many large boats and some large ships torn from moorings.
MSW: 131-155 mph (114-135 kt) and peak gusts 166-197 mph (145-171 kt)
Typical Damage - Some reinforced hollow-spun concrete and many reinforced wooden power poles blown down; numerous secondary and a few primary power lines downed. Extensive damage to non-concrete roofs; complete failure of many roof structures, window frames and doors, especially unprotected, non-reinforced ones; many well-built wooden and metal structures severely damaged or destroyed. Considerable glass failures due to flying debris and explosive pressure forces created by extreme wind gusts. Weakly reinforced cinderblock walls blown down. Complete disintegration of mobile homes and other structures of lighter materials. Most small and medium-sized steel-framed signs bent over or blown down. Some secured construction cranes and gantry cranes blown down. Some fuel storage tanks may rupture. Air is full of large projectiles and debris. Shrubs and trees 50-90 percent defoliated; up to 100 percent of tangantangan defoliated. Up to 75 percent of palm fronds bent, twisted, or blown off; many crowns stripped from palm trees. Numerous green and virtually all ripe coconuts blown from trees. Severe damage to sugar cane and bamboo. Many large trees blown down {palms, breadfruit, monkeypod, mango, acacia, and Australian pine. Considerable bark and some pulp removed from trees; most standing trees are void of all but the largest branches (severely pruned), with remaining branches stubby in appearance; numerous trunks and branches are sandblasted. Patches of panax, tangantangan, and oleander bent over or flattened. Overall damage can be classified as extreme.
Coastal Inundation and Wave Action - On windward coasts, sea level rise of 12-18 ft (3.7-5.5 m) above normal in open bays and inlets due to storm surge and wind-driven waves; breaking waves inside bays can reach 15-24 ft (4.5-7.3 m) above normal; water is about 8-12 ft (2.4-3.7 m) above normal across reef flats. Wind-driven waves will inundate coastal areas below 12 ft (3.7 m) elevation. Large boulders carried inland with waves. Severe beach erosion. Severe damage to port facilities including some loading derricks and gantry cranes. Most ships torn from moorings.
MSW: 156-194 mph (136-170 kt) and peak gusts 198-246 mph (172-216 kt)
Typical Damage - Severe damage to some solid concrete power poles, to numerous reinforced hollow-spun concrete power poles, to many steel towers, and to virtually all wooden poles; all secondary power lines and most primary power lines downed. Total failure of non-concrete reinforced roofs. Extensive or total destruction to non-concrete residences and industrial buildings. Some structural damage to concrete structures, especially from large debris, such as cars, large appliances, etc. Extensive glass failure due to impact of flying debris and explosive pressure forces during extreme gusts. Many well-constructed storm shutters ripped from structures. Some fuel storage tanks rupture. Nearly all construction cranes blown down. Air full of very large and heavy projectiles and debris. Shrubs and trees up to 100 percent defoliated; numerous large trees blown down. Up to 100 percent of palm fronds bent, twisted, or blown off; numerous crowns blown from palm trees; virtually all coconuts blown from trees. Most bark and considerable pulp removed from trees. Most standing trees are void of all but the largest branches, which are very stubby in appearance and severely sandblasted. Overall damage can be classified as catastrophic.
Coastal Inundation and Wave Action - On windward coasts, sea level rise of 18 to 30 + ft (5.5 - 9.2 + m) above normal in open bays and inlets due to storm surge and wind-driven waves; breaking waves inside bays can be >30 ft (9.2 m) above normal; water is about 12-20 + ft (3.7-6.1 + m) above normal across reef flats. Serious inundation likely for windward coastal areas below 18 ft (5.5 m) elevation. Very large boulders carried inland with waves. Extensive beach erosion. Extensive damage to port facilities including most loading derricks and gantry cranes. Virtually all ships, regardless of size, torn from moorings.
Mean Sea Level (MSL). The arithmetic mean of hourly water elevations observed over a specific 19-year tidal epoch.
Mean Low Water (MLW). The arithmetic mean of the low water heights observed over a specific 19-year tidal epoch.
Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW). The arithmetic mean of the lower low water heights of a mixed tide observed over a specific 19-year tidal epoch. Only the lower low water of each pair of low waters, or the only low water of a tidal day is included in the mean.
* Probability of Tropical Cyclone Conditions. The probability, in percent, the cyclone center will pass within 50nm to the right or 75nm to the left of the listed location within the indicated time period when looking at the coast in the direction of the cyclone's movement. (Simplified to say within 65nm on the strike probabilities product, Ref: appendix B)
Short Term Forecast (NOW). Issued at frequent intervals, these products give the short-term status of events and short-term forecasts. When issued every hour or so during active weather, they are effective in conveying timely and sometimes vital information about a potential or existing hazard. See section 6.1.3 and WSOM Chapter C-21, Local and Regional Statements, Summaries, and Tables, for further details concerning NOWs.
Storm Surge. An abnormal rise in sea level accompanying a tropical cyclone or other intense storm and whose height is the difference between the observed level of the sea surface and the level that would have occurred in the absence of the storm. Storm surge is usually estimated by subtracting the normal or astronomical tide from the observed storm tide.
Storm Tide. The actual sea level resulting from the astronomical tide combined with the storm surge.
Subtropical Cyclones. Nonfrontal, low pressure systems comprising initially baroclinic circulations developing over subtropical waters.
Subtropical Depression. A subtropical cyclone in which the maximum 1-minute sustained surface wind is 33 knots (38 mph) or less.
Subtropical Storm. A subtropical cyclone in which the maximum 1-minute sustained surface wind is 34 knots (39 mph) or more. There are two types, each of which can evolve into a tropical storm or hurricane/typhoon. These are referred to as storms in public advisories and statements.
Tropical Storm Warning. A warning for tropical storm conditions, including
1-minute sustained surface winds within the range 34 to 63 kts (39 to 73 mph) expected in a specified coastal area within 24 hours.
Tropical Storm Watch. An announcement a tropical storm or tropical storm conditions pose a threat to coastal areas within 36 hours, except for the western North Pacific, where conditions may occur within 48 hours. A tropical storm watch should normally not be issued if the tropical cyclone is forecast to attain hurricane strength.
Tropical Disturbance. A discrete tropical weather system of apparently organized convection--generally 100 to 300 mi in diameter--originating in the tropics or subtropics, having a nonfrontal migratory character and maintaining its identity for 24 hours or more. It may or may not be associated with a detectable perturbation of the wind field.
Tropical Wave (formerly known as inverted trough). A trough or cyclonic curvature maximum in the trade wind easterlies. The wave may reach maximum amplitude in the lower middle troposphere or may be the reflection of an upper tropospheric cold low or an equatorward extension of a mid-latitude trough.
Tropical Cyclone. A generic term for a non-frontal synoptic scale cyclone originating over tropical or subtropical waters with organized convection and definite cyclonic surface wind circulation.
Tropical Depression. A tropical cyclone in which the maximum 1-minute sustained surface wind is 33 knots (38 mph) or less.
Tropical Storm. A tropical cyclone in which the maximum 1-minute sustained surface wind ranges from 34 to 63 knots (39 to 73 mph) inclusive.
Hurricane/Typhoon. A tropical cyclone in which the maximum 1-minute sustained surface wind is 64 knots (74 mph) or greater.
Gale Warning. A warning of 1-minute sustained surface winds in the range 34 knots (39 mph) to 47 knots (54 mph) inclusive, either predicted or occurring not directly associated with tropical cyclones.
Storm Warning. A warning of 1-minute sustained surface winds of 48 knots
(55 mph) or greater, either predicted or occurring, not directly associated with tropical cyclones.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ASSESSMENT AND WARNING PRODUCT IDENTIFIERS
AREA WMO AFOS
Caribbean CA #
North Atlantic and Caribbean NT AT
East Pacific PZ EP
Central Pacific PA CP
West Pacific PW WP
North Pacific PN #
West North Pacific PQ #
South Pacific PS #
Indian Ocean IO #
South Indian Ocean XS #
Issuing Office WMO CCCC
WFO HNL/CPHC - Honolulu PHFO
WFO Guam PGUM
JTWC - Pearl Harbor PGTW
NHC - Miami KNHC
NAVPACMETOCCEN - Naval Pacific
Metr. And Oceanography Center
- Pearl Harbor PHNC
* Offutt AFB KGWC
PRODUCT
IDENTIFIER NWWS
PRODUCT TITLES WMO HEADER (CCCNNNXXX) BACKUP HEADERS
Tropical Weather Outlook
(Atlantic Basin) ABNT20 KNHC MIATWOAT NFDTWOAT
(Eastern Pacific) ABPZ20 KNHC MIATWOEP NFDTWOEP
* (Central Pacific) ACPN50 PHFO HFOTWOCP MIATWOCP
* (San Juan - Spanish) ACCA62 TJSJ SJUTWOSPN MIATWOSPN
Tropical Weather Discussion
(Atlantic Basin) AXNT20 KNHC MIATWDAT NFDTWDAT
(Eastern Pacific) AXPZ20 KNHC MIATWDEP NFDTWDEP
* (Western North and South Pacific) ACPW40 PHFO HFOTWDPW MIATWDPW
* (Central North and South Pacific) ACPA40 PHFO HFOTWDPA MIATWDPA
Tropical/Subtropical Cyclone
Public Advisory
(Atlantic Basin) WTNT31-35 KNHC MIATCPAT1-5 NFDTCPAT1-5
* (San Juan - Spanish) WTCA40 TJSJ SJUTCPSP1-5
(Eastern Pacific) WTPZ31-35 KNHC MIATCPEP1-5 NFDTCPEP1-5
(Central Pacific) WTPA31-35 PHFO HFOTCPCP1-5 MIATCPCP1-5
* (Western Pacific) WTPQ31-35 PGUM GUMTCPPQ1-5 N/A
TROPICAL CYCLONE ASSESSMENT AND WARNING PRODUCT IDENTIFIERS
(Continued)
PRODUCT
IDENTIFIER NWWS
PRODUCT TITLES WMO HEADER (CCCNNNXXX) BACKUP HEADERS
Tropical Cyclone Strike Probabilities
(Atlantic Basin Only) WTNT71-75 KNHC MIASPFAT1-5 NFDSPFAT1-5
Tropical/Subtropical Cyclone
Forecast/Advisory
(Atlantic Basin) WTNT21-25 KNHC MIATCMAT1-5 NFDTCMAT1-5
(Eastern Pacific) WTPZ21-25 KNHC MIATCMEP1-5 NFDTCMEP1-5
(Central Pacific) WTPA21-25 PHFO HFOTCMCP1-5 MIATCMCP1-5
Tropical Cyclone Discussion
(Atlantic Basin) WTNT41-45 KNHC MIATCDAT1-5 NFDTCDAT1-5
(Eastern Pacific) WTPZ41-45 KNHC MIATCDEP1-5 NFDTCDEP1-5
(Central Pacific) WTPA41-45 PHFO HFOTCDCP1-5 MIATCDCP1-5
Prognostic Reasoning of Warnings WDPN31-36 PGTW N/A N/A
for NW Pacific
Tropical Cyclone Position Estimate
(Atlantic Basin) WTNT51 KNHC MIATCEAT NFDTCEAT
(Eastern Pacific) WTPZ51 KNHC MIATCEEP NFDTCEEP
* (Central Pacific) WTPA50 PHFO HFOTCECP MIATCECP
* (Western North Pacific) WTPQ51-55 PGUM GUMTCEPQ1-5 N/A
Tropical Cyclone Position and
Intensity from Satellite Data
(NW Pacific) TPPN10 PGTW N/A N/A
(SW Pacific) TPPS10 PGTW N/A N/A
(S Pacific East of 160E) TXPS10 PHFO N/A N/A
* (N central Pacific 140W-180) TXPN10 PHFO N/A N/A
(N Indian Ocean) TPIO10 PGTW N/A N/A
(S Indian Ocean) TPXS10 PGTW N/A N/A
* (NW Pacific) TPPN10 KGWC
* (SW Pacific) TPPS10 KGWC
* (NE Pacific) TPPZ1 KGWC
* (North Indian Ocean) TPIO10 KGWC
* (South Indian Ocean) TPXS10 KGWC
* (Atlantic) TPNT KGWC
___________________
N/A indicates currently none assigned.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ASSESSMENT AND WARNING PRODUCT IDENTIFIERS
(Continued)
PRODUCT
IDENTIFIER NWWS
PRODUCT TITLES WMO HEADER (CCCNNNXXX) BACKUP HEADERS
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Message
Issued by JTWC
(Northwest Pacific) WTPN21-25 PGTW N/A N/A
(Southwest Pacific) WTPS21-25 PGTW N/A N/A
(North Indian Ocean) WTIO21-25 PGTW N/A N/A
(South Indian Ocean) WTXS21-25 PGTW N/A N/A
Issued by NAVPACMETOCCEN
* (Southeast Pacific) WTPS21-25 PHNC N/A N/A
Tropical Cyclone Update
(Atlantic Basin) WTNT61 KNHC MIATCUAT NFDTCUAT
(Eastern Pacific) WTPZ61 KNHC MIATCUEP NFDTCUEP
* (Central Pacific) WTPA60 PHFO HFOTCUCP MIATCUCP
Tropical Cyclone Warnings
(Northwest Pacific) WTPN31-35 PGTW NMCTCPWP1-5 N/A
(Southwest Pacific) WTPS31-35 PGTW N/A N/A
(North Indian Ocean) WTIO31-35 PGTW N/A N/A
(South Indian Ocean) WTXS31-35 PGTW N/A N/A
Special Tropical Disturbance Statement
(Atlantic Basin) WONT41 KNHC MIADSAAT NFDDSAAT
(Eastern Pacific) WOPZ41 KNHC MIADSAEP NFDDSAEP
* (Central Pacific) ACPA40 PHFO HFODSACP MIADSACP
(Western Pacific) ABPW10 PGTW N/A N/A
(Indian Ocean) ABIO10 PGTW N/A N/A
Tropical Weather Summary
(Atlantic Basin) ABNT30 KNHC MIATWSAT NFDTWSAT
(Eastern Pacific) ABPZ30 KNHC MIATWSEP NFDTWSEP
* (Central Pacific) ACPN60 PHFO HFOTWSCP MIATWSCP
Satellite Interpretation Message
* (Hawaiian Islands) ATHW40 PHFO HFOSIMHI N/A
Satellite Tropical Discussion
*(Western North and South Pacific) ACPW40 PHFO HFOTWDPW N/A
*(Central North and South Pacific) ACPA40 PHFO HFOTWDPA N/A
Satellite-Derived Rainfall
(Eastern Caribbean) TCCA22 KNHC MIASTDCCA N/A
(Central Caribbean) TCCA21 KNHC MIASTDECA N/A
(Western Caribbean) TCCA23 KNHC MIASTDWCA N/A
___________________
N/A indicates currently none assigned.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ASSESSMENT AND WARNING PRODUCT IDENTIFIERS
(Continued)
PRODUCT
IDENTIFIER NWWS
PRODUCT TITLES WMO HEADER (CCCNNNXXX) BACKUP HEADERS
High Seas Forecast
(North Atlantic) FZNT01 KWBC NFDHSFAT1 NFDHSFAT1
(South Atlantic, Gulf of
Mexico, and Caribbean) FZNT01 KWBC MIAHSFAT2 MIAHSFAT2
(East Pacific [north]) FZPN01 KWBC NFDHSFEP1 NFDHSFEP1
(East Pacific [south]) FZPN02 KWBC MIAHSFEPI MIAHSFEPI
(East Pacific) FZPN03 KNHC MIAHSFEP2 MIAHSFEP2
(East Pacific) FZPN04 KNHC MIAHSFEP3 MIAHSFEP3
* (North Central Pacific) FZPN40 PHFO HFOHSFNP N/A
* (South Central Pacific) FZPS40 PHFO HFOHSFSP N/A
Storm Summary
(Conterminous US) ACUS42 KWBC NFDSCCNS1-5 NFDSCCNFD
Aircraft Reconnaissance Messages Reports-Atlantic Basin
(Routine Report) URNT10 KNHC MIAREPNT0 N/A
(Tropical Cyclone Report) URNT11 KNHC MIAREPNT1 N/A
(Vortex Data Message) URNT12 KNHC MIAREPNT2 N/A
(Dropsonde Report) URNT13 KNHC MIAREPNT3 N/A
(Supplemental Vortex data Message)URNT14 KNHC MIAREPNT4 N/A
Aircraft Reconnaissance Messages-Pacific Basin
(Routine Report) URPN10 KNHC MIAREPPN0 N/A
(Tropical Cyclone Report) URPN11 KNHC MIAREPPN1 N/A
(Vortex Data Message) URPN12 KNHC MIAREPPN2 N/A
(Dropsonde Report) URPN13 KNHC MIAREPPN3 N/A
(Supplemental Vortex data Message)URPN14 KNHC MIAREPPN4 N/A
Summer/Winter Reconnaissance NOUS42 KNHC MIAREPRPD N/A
Schedule [Atlantic/Pacific])
Hurricane Local Statement
(Atlantic) WWUS31 KCCC CCCHLSNNN N/A *(Central Pacific)
(Island of Hawaii) WTHW80 PHTO HFOHLSITO N/A
(Island of Kauai) WTHW80 PHLI HFOHLSLIH N/A
(Oahu and remaining islands) WTHW80 PHFO HFOHLSHFO N/A
(Western Pacific) WTPQ81-85 PGUM GUMHLSPQ1-5 N/A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE PRODUCTS
(Atlantic Basin) WXHH01 KMIA MIACHGHUR N/A
(Pacific Basin) WXHH01 KWBC MIACHGE77 N/A
(Atlantic Basin) WXHH04 KWBC SMCCHGQLM N/A
___
____________
N/A indicates currently none assigned.
OFFICIAL DEFINING POINTS
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES/WARNINGS
La Pesca, MX 23.76N 97.78W
Rio San Fernando, MX 25.00N 97.60W
Brownsville, TX
Brownsville, TX 25.95N 97.16W
Port Mansfield, TX 26.59N 97.29W
Baffin Bay, TX 27.29N 97.37W
Corpus Christi, TX
Baffin Bay, TX 27.29N 97.37W
Corpus Christi, TX 27.67N 97.19W
Port Aransas, TX 27.83N 97.08W
Port O'Connor, TX 28.40N 96.39W
Houston, TX
Port O'Connor, TX 28.40N 96.39W
Matagorda, TX 28.63N 95.93W
Sargent, TX 28.75N 95.60W
Freeport, TX 28.93N 95.33W
San Luis Pass, TX 29.08N 95.13W
High Island, TX 29.57N 94.39W
Lake Charles, LA
High Island, TX 29.57N 94.39W
Sabine Pass, TX 29.71N 93.85W
Cameron, LA 29.80N 93.30W
Intracoastal City, LA 29.62N 92.04W
Morgan City, LA 29.49N 91.29W
New Orleans, LA
Morgan City, LA 29.49N 91.29W
Grand Isle, LA 29.25N 89.96W
Mouth of Mississippi River, LA 29.12N 89.11W
Mouth of Pearl River, LA 30.15N 89.60W
Pascagoula, MS 30.37N 88.55W
Mobile, AL
Pascagoula, MS 30.37N 88.55W
* Alabama-Florida Border 30.28N 87.50W
Fort Walton Beach, FL 30.41N 86.62W
Destin, FL 30.39N 86.50W
Tallahassee, FL
Destin, FL 30.39N 86.50W
Panama City, FL 30.12N 85.70W
Indian Pass, FL 29.68N 85.27W
Apalachicola, FL 29.73N 84.99W
Ochlockonee River, FL 29.95N 84.40W
St. Marks, FL 30.11N 84.21W
Aucilla River, FL 30.05N 83.92W
Steinhatchee River, FL 29.70N 83.40W
Suwanee River, FL 29.30N 83.17W
Tampa Bay, FL
Suwanee River, FL 29.30N 83.17W
Yankeetown, FL 29.03N 82.74W
Bayport, FL 28.54N 82.65W
Anclote Key, FL 28.18N 82.85W
* Tarpon Springs, FL 28.15N 82.77W
* Anna Maria Island, FL 27.53N 82.75W
Longboat Key, FL 27.39N 82.64W
* Englewood, FL 26.94N 82.38W
Boca Grande, FL 26.72N 82.27W
Bonita Beach, FL 26.33N 81.85W
* Miami, FL (Gulf)
Bonita Beach, FL 26.33N 81.85W
Chokoloskee, FL 25.80N 81.36W
East Cape Sable, FL 25.15N 81.08W
Flamingo, FL 25.14N 80.93W
Key West, FL (Gulf)
Flamingo, FL 25.14N 80.93W
Dry Tortugas, FL 24.66N 82.86W
* Key West, FL 24.55N 81.81W
Seven Mile Bridge, FL 24.70N 81.15W
Craig Key, FL 24.83N 80.77W
* Pigeon Key, FL 25.06N 80.51W
Key Largo, FL 25.09N 80.44W
Ocean Reef, FL 25.32N 80.26W
Miami, FL (Atlantic)
Ocean Reef, FL 25.32N 80.26W
Florida City, FL 25.45N 80.33W
Golden Beach, FL 25.97N 80.12W
Hallandale, FL 25.99N 80.13W
Deerfield Beach, FL 26.32N 80.10W
Boca Raton, FL 26.36N 80.07W
Jupiter Inlet, FL 26.95N 80.07W
Melbourne, FL
Jupiter Inlet, FL 26.95N 80.07W
Stuart, FL 27.21N 80.18W
Fort Pierce, FL 27.46N 80.30W
Vero Beach, FL 27.66N 80.37W
Sebastian Inlet, FL 27.84N 80.43W
Cocoa Beach, FL 28.32N 80.61W
Titusville, FL 28.64N 80.63W
New Smyrna Beach, FL 29.03N 80.89W
Flagler Beach, FL 29.47N 81.13W
Jacksonville, FL
Flagler Beach, FL 29.47N 81.13W
St. Augustine, FL 29.89N 81.31W
Fernandina Beach, FL 30.66N 81.45W
* Brunswick, GA 31.15N 81.38W
Brunswick (Altamaha Sound), GA 31.30N 81.29W
Charleston, SC
Brunswick (Altamaha Sound), GA 31.30N 81.29W
Savannah River, GA 32.04N 80.86W
Edisto Beach, SC 32.40N 80.33W
South Santee River, SC 33.12N 79.27W
Wilmington, NC
South Santee River, SC 33.12N 79.27W
Murrells Inlet, SC 33.56N 79.00W
Little River Inlet, SC 33.85N 78.55W
Cape Fear, NC 33.87N 77.94W
Surf City, NC 34.44N 77.50W
Morehead City, NC
Surf City, NC 34.44N 77.50W
New River Inlet, NC 34.32N 77.20W
Bogue Inlet, NC 34.39N 77.06W
Cape Lookout, NC 34.58N 76.55W
Ocracoke Inlet, NC 35.06N 76.00W
Cape Hatteras, NC 35.22N 75.52W
Oregon Inlet, NC 35.76N 75.50W
(The inclusion of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds should be on a case-by-case basis).
Currituck Beach Light, NC 36.22N 75.76W
Wakefield, VA
Currituck Beach Light, NC 36.22N 75.76W
NC/VA State Line 36.55N 75.87W
Cape Charles Light, VA 37.11N 75.91W
Parramore Island, VA 37.53N 75.63W
Chincoteague, VA 37.93N 75.37W
Chesapeake Bay, New Point Comfort, VA 37.30N 76.28W
Chesapeake Bay, Windmill Point, VA 37.61N 76.28W
Chesapeake Bay, Smith Point, VA 37.88N 76.23W
Sterling, VA
Chesapeake Bay, Smith Point, VA 37.88N 76.23W
Tidal Potomac, Cobb Island, MD 38.26N 76.84W
Tidal Potomac, Indian Head, MD 38.61N 77.15W
Chesapeake Bay, Drum Point, MD 39.33N 76.42W
Chesapeake Bay, North Beach, MD 38.70N 76.53W
Chesapeake Bay, Sandy Point, MD 39.02N 76.40W
Chesapeake Bay, Pooles Island, MD 39.29N 76.27W
Mt. Holly, NJ
Cape Henlopen, DE 38.48N 75.05W
Cape May, NJ 38.56N 74.58W
Great Egg Inlet, NJ 39.18N 74.32W
Little Egg Inlet, NJ 39.30N 74.19W
Manasquan Inlet, NJ 40.06N 74.02W
Delaware Bay north/south of
Slaughter Beach, DE to 38.54N 75.18W
East Point, NJ 39.11N 75.01W
Sandy Hook, NJ 40.26N 73.59W
New York City, NY
Sandy Hook, NJ 40.26N 73.59W
Fire Island Inlet, LI, NY 40.63N 73.29W
Moriches Inlet, LI, NY 40.77N 72.75W
Montauk Point, LI, NY 41.07N 71.86W
Port Jefferson Harbor, LI, NY 40.96N 73.09W
New Haven, CT 41.30N 72.89W
Watch Hill, RI 41.30N 71.87W
Boston, MA
Watch Hill, RI 41.30N 71.87W
Point Judith, RI 41.35N 71.49W
Westport, MA 41.45N 71.20W
Woods Hole, MA 41.52N 70.69W
Chatham, MA 41.66N 69.95W
Plymouth, MA 41.98N 70.65W
Gloucester, MA 42.57N 70.66W
Merrimack River, MA 42.84N 70.82W
Portland, ME
Merrimack River, MA 42.84N 70.82W
Portsmouth, NH 43.06N 70.70W
Portland, ME 43.64N 70.20W
Rockland, ME 44.10N 69.10W
* Stonington, ME 44.16N 68.67W
* Caribou, ME
* Stonington, ME 44.16N 68.67W
Bar Harbor, ME 44.39N 68.20W
Eastport, ME 44.92N 67.00W
ESTIMATED HURRICANE EVACUATION CLEARANCE TIMES
St. Croix)
ST
COUNTY
CAT 1
CAT 2
CAT 3
CAT 4
CAT 5
DATE
NOTE: All evacuation times for Texas should be used for general guidance purposes only.
TX
Cameron
6
6
11
13
13
5/92
TX
Willacy
6
6
11
13
13
5/92
TX
Kenedy
<1
<1
<1
1-2
1-2
5/92
TX
Kleberg (Inland)
1
1
1
6
6
8/89
(N. Padre Island)
12
12
12
12
12
8/89
TX
Nueces (Western)
---
---
---
4
4
8/89
(Corpus Christi Metro Area)
16
16
16
22
22
8/89
(Mustang & North Padre Island)
12
12
12
12
12
8/89
TX
Aransas
11
11
11
13
13
8/89
TX
San Patricio
7
7
7
10
10
8/89
TX
Refugio
1
1
1
2
2
8/89
TX
Calhoun
---
---
---
6
6
6/91
TX
Victoria
---
---
---
6
6
6/91
TX
Jackson
---
---
---
2
2
6/91
TX
Matagorda
--
--
---
6
6
6/91
TX
Brazoria
--
--
---
16
16
6/91
TX
Galveston
---
---
30
30
30
6/91
TX
Harris
---
---
---
26
26
6/81
TX
Chambers
---
---
---
4
4
6/81
TX
Jefferson
---
---
---
24
24
9/83
TX
Orange
---
---
---
24
24
9/83
TX
Hardin
--
--
---
24
24
9/83
TX
Jasper
---
---
---
24
24
9/83
TX
Newton
---
---
---
24
24
9/83
NOTE: Background traffic conditions with a peak condition include a normal work-to-home movement in addition to the movement of evacuating vehicle.
LA
St Charles
5-10
5-10
27-30
31-33
35-38
5/92
LA
St John the Baptist
5-10
5-10
27-30
31-33
35-38
5/92
LA
St James
5-10
5-10
27-30
31-33
35-38
5/92
LA
Orleans (Off Peak)
5-10
14-16
24-31
37-39
42-44
5/92
Orleans (Peak)
6-12
15-23
26-38
40-45
45-50
5/92
LA
Jefferson (Off Peak)
5-10
14-16
24-31
37-39
42-44
5/92
Jefferson (Peak)
6-12
15-23
26-38
40-45
45-50
5/92
LA
Plaquemine (Off Peak)
5-10
14-16
24-31
37-39
42-44
5/92
Plaquemine (Peak)
6-12
15-23
26-38
40-45
45-50
5/92
LA
St Bernard (Off Peak)
5-10
14-16
24-31
37-39
42-44
5/92
St Bernard (Peak)
6-12
15-23
26-38
40-45
45-50
5/92
LA
St Tammany (Off Peak)
5-10
14-16
24-31
37-39
42-44
5/92
St Tammany (Peak)
6-12
15-23
26-38
40-45
45-50
5/92
NOTE: Times include the effects of Grand Isle traffic from Jefferson Parish.
LA
LaFourche
6-9
11-12
11-12
13-14
13-14
5/92
NOTE: Longer times for the following counties reflect both slower response times and higher tourist occupancy.
MS
Hancock
6-9
6-9
9-11
9-11
9-11
1/87
MS
Harrison
8-10
8-10
11-13
14-16
14-16
1/87
MS
Jackson
8-10
8-10
11-13
14-16
14-16
1/87
NOTE: Longer times for the following counties reflect both slower response times and higher tourist occupancy.
AL
Mobile
13-16
13-16
15-18
15-18
15-18
9/91
AL
Baldwin
12-16
12-16
16-20
16-20
16-20
9/91
NOTE: Longer times for the following counties reflect both slower response times and higher tourist occupancy.
FL
Escambia
13-17
13-17
16-19
16-19
16-19
6/86
FL
Santa Rosa
7-11
7-11
8-13
8-13
8-13
6/86
FL
Okaloosa
13-17
13-17
15-19
15-19
15-19
6/86
FL
Walton
7-13
7-13
8-15
8-15
8-15
6/86
FL
Bay
22-30
22-30
26-34
26-34
26-34
6/86
NOTE: Longer times for the following counties reflect slower response times only.
FL
Gulf
11-21
11-21
12-24
12-24
12-24
1/92
FL
Franklin
11-24
11-24
13-30
13-30
13-30
1/92
FL
Wakulla
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
1/92
FL
Jefferson
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
1/92
FL
Leon (Inland)
5-11
5-11
7-11
7-11
7-11
1/92
FL
Gadsen (Inland)
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
1/92
FL
Liberty (Inland)
5-11
5-11
5-11
7-11
7-11
1/92
FL
Calhoun (Inland)
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
1/92
FL
Jackson (Inland)
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
1/92
NOTE: The following counties have no "official" evacuation clearance times.
FL
Taylor
---
---
---
---
---
-----
FL
Dixie
---
---
---
---
---
-----
NOTE: Longer lead times for the following counties reflect background traffic evacuating from other regions.
FL
Levy
14-20
14-20
15-41
16-42
17-43
11/89
FL
Citrus
13-23
14-23
17-42
18-43
19-43
11/89
FL
Hernando
14-27
14-28
18-44
17-43
19-45
11/89
NOTE: Longer times for the following counties reflect slower response times only.
FL
Pasco
11-16
11-16
19
19
19
11/92
FL
Pinellas
13-16
13-16
18-24
18-24
18-24
11/92
FL
Hillsboro
13-16
13-16
18-22
18-22
18-22
11/92
FL
Manatee
14
14
14-18
14-18
14-18
11/92
NOTE: Longer lead times for the following counties reflect no traffic management.
FL
Sarasota
6-9
6-9
8-10
10-13
10-13
11/91
FL
Charlotte
7-13
7-19
11-31
11-31
11-31
11/91
FL
Lee
9-13
18-27
23-31
23-31
23-31
11/91
NOTE: Slow response times based on normal summer occupancy (first time listed) to peak fall occupancy (second time listed) assuming 50 percent evacuation on non-surge population.
FL
Collier
12
10-17
13-20
14-20
14-20
11/91
NOTE: Longer times for the following counties reflect slower response times only.
FL
Monroe (Middle and Upper Keys)
11-17
11-17
19-27
19-27
19-27
6/91
FL
Monroe (Lower and Middle Keys)
11-17
11-17
21-30
21-30
21-30
6/91
FL
Monroe (All Keys)
17-25
17-25
29-38
29-38
29-38
6/91
NOTE: Slow response times based on normal summer occupancy (first time listed) to peak fall occupancy (second time listed) assuming 50 percent evacuation on non-surge population.
FL
Dade
28-33
46-52
46-52
71-81
71-81
9/92
FL
Broward
21
21
26
26
26
11/90
FL
Palm Beach
16
16
16
16
16
1/93
NOTE: Times for the following counties are based on specific hurricane landfall scenarios--not on Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge or Maximum Envelope Of Water models.
FL
Martin
7-11
7-11
9-17
9-17
9-17
7/92
FL
St. Lucie
8
8
14
14
14-20
1/93
FL
Indian River
12
12
12
12
12
1/93
NOTE: Longer times for the following counties reflect slower response times only.
FL
Brevard
8-12
8-12
8-12
8-12
8-12
11/90
FL
Volusia
5-10
5-10
9-17
9-17
9-17
11/89
FL
Putnam
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
12/84
FL
Flagler
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
-----
FL
St. Johns
4-10
4-10
15-17
15-17
15-17
12/84
FL
Duval
7-10
7-10
15-17
15-17
15-17
12/84
FL
Nassau
5-10
5-10
5-10
5-10
5-10
12/84
NOTE: Data for Georgia coastal areas were generated in 1988. Since that time, significant population density changes have occurred in certain vulnerable areas, especially Chatham and Camden Counties. The evacuation clearance times provided likely are underestimates. Updated information is being generated and will appear in a later version of this chapter. Clearance times listed pertain to Medium Response only.
GA
Chatham
(6)
6 (6)
7¼ (6½)
233/4 (18)
233/4 (18)
1988
GA
Liberty
6¼
6¼
6¼
6¼
6¼
1988
GA
Bryan
6¼
6¼ (6)
7¼ (6½)
24 (18¼)
24 (18¼)
1988
GA
Camden
6
6
6
12¼
12¼
1988
GA
McIntosh
6
6
6
6
6
1988
GA
Glynn
9 (83/4)
9 (83/4)
11 (10½)
12½ (113/4)
12½ (113/4)
1988
SC
Jasper
7-9
7-9
11-12
11-12
11-12
SC
Beaufort
5-12
5-15
6-18
12-19
12-19
SC
Colleton
5-9
5-9
11-12
11-12
11-12
SC
Charleston
6-9
10-13
16-18
20-23
20-23
SC
Georgetown
5-10
5-10
6-10
10-14
10-14
SC
Horry
11-14
11-14
13-17
16-20
16-20
NOTE: Longer times for the following counties reflect both slower response times and higher tourist occupancy.
NC
Brunswick
6-10
6-10
6-10
6-10
6-10
11/86
NC
New Hanover
6-9
6-9
6-9
6-9
6-9
11/86
NC
Pender
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
11/86
NC
Craven
7-10
7-10
7-10
8-10
8-10
11/86
NC
Carteret
8-12
8-12
9-12
10-13
10-13
11/86
NC
Pamlico
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
11/86
NC
Onslow
9-12
9-12
9-12
9-13
9-13
11/86
NC
Washington
8-12
8-12
8-12
10-14
10-14
11/86
NC
Bertie
8-14
8-14
11-17
11-17
11-17
11/86
NC
Martin
10-14
10-14
12-16
12-16
12-16
11/86
NC
Beaufort
7-10
7-10
7-10
8-11
8-11
11/86
NC
Perquimans
5-9
5-9
7-11
7-11
7-11
11/86
NC
Chowan
5-10
5-10
8-12
8-12
8-12
11/86
NC
Currituck
5-11
5-11
5-11
6-13
6-13
11/86
NC
Camden
5-11
5-11
7-13
7-13
7-13
11/86
NC
Pasquotank
5-10
5-10
6-11
6-11
6-11
11/86
NC
Hyde (Mainland)
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
11/86
NC
Hyde (Ocracoke Island)
13-27
13-27
13-27
13-27
13-27
11/86
NC
Tyrrell
6-10
6-10
6-10
8-11
8-11
11/86
NC
Dare
6-12
6-12
6-12
7-13
7-13
11/86
(Category 5 not modelled)
VA
Norfolk
10-25
10-25
16-27
19-27
N/A
3/92
VA
City of Portsmouth
3-9
3-9
3-9
5-9
N/A
3/92
VA
City of Newport News
10-14
10-14
20-24
20-24
N/A
3/92
VA
City of Chesapeake
3-9
5-9
5-9
9-11
N/A
3/92
VA
City of Suffolk
4-10
6-13
6-13
7-16
N/A
3/92
VA
City of Poquoson
3-9
5-9
5-9
5-9
N/A
3/92
VA
Northampton
7-11
7-11
7-11
7-11
N/A
3/92
VA
Accomack
7-11
7-11
8-12
8-12
N/A
3/92
VA
York
10-13
10-13
17-21
17-21
N/A
3/92
VA
Gloucester
4-9
4-9
7-14
7-14
N/A
3/92
VA
Matthews
2-9
2-9
2-9
2-9
N/A
3/92
VA
Middlesex
2-9
2-9
2-9
2-9
N/A
3/92
VA
Lancaster
1-9
1-9
1-9
1-9
N/A
3/92
VA
Richmond
1-9
1-9
1-9
1-9
N/A
3/92
VA
Northumberland
1-9
1-9
1-9
1-9
N/A
3/92
VA
Westmoreland
1-9
1-9
1-9
1-9
N/A
3/92
(Category five not modelled)
MD
Worcester
4-15
4-15
4-23
4-23
N/A
3/92
MD
Anne Arundel
9-23
9-23
10-25
10-25
N/A
3/92
MD
Caroline
13-20
13-20
13-20
13-20
N/A
3/92
MD
Dorchester
6-22
8-25
8-25
8-25
N/A
3/92
MD
Kent
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
MD
Queen Anne's
12-33
12-33
15-38
15-38
N/A
3/92
MD
St. Mary's
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
MD
Somerset
7-13
11-15
11-15
12-15
N/A
3/92
MD
Talbot
10-38
14-45
14-45
14-45
N/A
3/92
MD
Wicomico
8-33
11-37
11-37
11-37
N/A
3/92
(Category five not modelled)
DE
Sussex
10-38
10-38
11-45
11-45
N/A
3/92
DE
Kent
10-24
10-24
11-25
11-25
N/A
3/92
DE
New Castle
11-25
11-25
12-26
12-26
N/A
3/92
(Category five not modelled)
NJ
Cape May
7-31
7-31
10-36
10-36
N/A
3/92
NJ
Atlantic
9-24
9-24
11-26
11-26
N/A
3/92
NJ
Ocean
7-13
7-13
7-19
7-19
N/A
3/92
NJ
Monmouth
6-10
6-10
7-10
7-10
N/A
3/92
NJ
Cumberland
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
NJ
Salem
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
NJ
Gloucester
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
NJ
Camden
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
NJ
Burlington
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
NJ
Middlesex
4-9
4-9
5-9
5-9
N/A
3/92
NJ
Union
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
NJ
Essex
4-9
4-10
4-10
4-10
N/A
3/92
NJ
Hudson
4-9
6-11
6-11
6-11
N/A
3/92
NJ
Bergen
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
(Category five not modelled)
NY
Suffolk
7-14
7-14
12-18
12-18
N/A
3/92
NY
Fire Island
6-11
6-11
6-11
6-11
N/A
3/92
NY
Nassau
11-18
11-18
14-21
14-21
N/A
3/92
NY
Queens
7-12
7-12
11-16
11-16
N/A
3/92
NY
Manhattan
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
NY
Kings
5-10
6-11
10-15
12-17
N/A
3/92
NY
Richmond
4-9
4-9
7-12
7-12
N/A
3/92
NY
Bronx
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
NY
Westchester
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
Puerto Rico (Northern, Eastern, and Southern)
---
---
8-12
8-12
8-12
1/89
U.S. Virgin Islands (St. Thomas, St. John, and
---
---
8-12
8-12
8-12
1/89
Evacuation time estimates are presently not available for any counties in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, or Maine.
APPENDIX G
GEOGRAPHICAL DEFINING POINTS AND PHONETIC PRONUNCIATIONS
Abaco AB-a-KO Grenada gre-NAY-dah
Anguilla ang-GWIL-a Guadaloupe GWAH-deh-loop
Antigua an-TEE-ga Guatemala gwaht-eh-MAH-la
Aruba ah-ROO-ba Leeward LEE-werd
Antilles an-TILL-leez Maracaibo mar-a-KYE-boh
Azores uh-ZOHRZ Maracay mah-rah-KYE
Bahamas ba-HAHM-ahs Marigot ma-ree-GOH
Barbados bar-BAY-dohz Mayaguez may-yah-GWAYS
Barbuda bar-BOO-dah Merida MAY-re-thah
Barranquilla Bahr-rahn-KEE-yah Miami mye-AM-ee
Barahona ba-ra-HO-na Montego mon-TEE-go
Basse-Terre baha-TER Montserrat mont-se-RAT
Bermuda ber-MYOO-da Nicaragua nik-a-RAH-gwah
Biloxi bi-LUX-ee Ocho Rios OH-cho REE-os
Bimini BIM-I-ni Oranjestad o-RAHN-yuh-stat
Bonaire ba-NAIR Paramaribo par-a-MAR-I-boh
Cap Haitien kahp ah-ee-SYAN Parguera par-GWER-a
Caracas kah-RAH-kahs Pointe-a-Pitre pwan-ta-PEE-tr
Caribbean kar-a-BE-an Ponce PON-sa
Castries KAS-tree Port-au-Prince port-oh-PRINS
Cayman kay-MAHN Saba SAH-ba
Charlotte a-MAHL-ye Sao Miguel soun ME-gel
Amalie (the Azores)
Cozumel koh-soo-MEL St Croix ST croy
Curacao koor-a-SOH St Lucia ST LOO-she-a
Dominica dom-I-NEE-ka Soufriere soo-free-AR
Eleuthera el-OO-thera Surinam SOOR-I-nam
Exuma ek-SOO-ma Tampico tam-PEE-ko
Flores FLO-rish Tela TAY-lah
Fort de France for-de-FRAHCS Tobago to-BAY-go
Yucatan yoo-ka-TAN
TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES AND PRONUNCIATION GUIDES
* ATLANTIC
2000
ALBERTO al-BAIR-toe
BERYL BER-ril
CHRIS
DEBBY
ERNESTO er-NES-toe
FLORENCE
GORDON
HELENE he-LEEN
ISAAC EYE-zak
JOYCE
KEITH
LESLIE
MICHAEL MIKE-el
NADINE nay-DEEN
OSCAR
PATTY
RAFAEL ra-fa-EL
SANDY
TONY
VALERIE
WILLIAM
2001
ALLISON
BARRY
CHANTAL shan-TAHL
DEAN
ERIN AIR-in
FELIX FEEL-ix
GABRIELLE ga-bree-EL
HUMBERTO oom-BAIR-to
IRIS EYE-ris
JERRY
KAREN
LUIS loo-EES
MARILYN
NOEL
OPAL
PABLO PA-blow
ROXANNE rocks-ANN
SEBASTIEN say-BAS-tyan
TANYA TAHN-ya
VAN
WENDY
2002
ARTHUR
BERTHA BUR-tha
CRISTOBAL
DOLLY
EDOUARD eh-DWARD
FAY
GUSTAV
HANNA
ISIDORE IS-I-door
JOSEPHINE JO-ze-feen
KYLE
LILI
MARCO
NANA
OMAR
PALOMA pa-LOW-ma
RENE re-NAY
SALLY
TEDDY
VICKY
WILFRED
2003
ANA
BILL
CLAUDETTE claw-DET
DANNY
ERIKA ERR-ree-ka
FABIAN FAY-bee-in
GRACE
HENRI ahn-REE
ISABEL IS-a-bell
JUAN WAN
KATE
LARRY
MINDY
NICHOLAS NIK-o-las
ODETTE o-DET
PETER
ROSE
SAM
TERESA te-REE-sa
VICTOR VIC-ter
WANDA
2004
ALEX
BONNIE
CHARLEY
DANIELLE dan-YELL
EARL
FRANCES
GASTON
HERMINE her-MEEN
IVAN eye-van
JEANNE JEEN
KARL
LISA LEE-sa
MATTHEW
NICOLE ni-COLE
OTTO
PAULA
RICHARD RICH-erd
SHARY SHA-ree
TOMAS to-MAS
VIRGINIE vir-JIN-ee
WALTER
2005
ARLENE
BRET
CINDY
DENNIS
EMILY
*FRANKLIN
GERT
HARVEY
IRENE
JOSE ho-ZAY
KATRINA ka-TREE-na
*LEE
MARIA ma-REE-ah
NATE
OPHELIA o-FEEL-ya
PHILIPPE fe-leep
RITA
STAN
TAMMY
VINCE
WILMA
*
TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES AND PRONUNCIATION GUIDES
EASTERN PACIFIC
2000
Aletta a LET ah
Bud
Carlotta
Daniel
Emilia ee MILL ya
Fabio FAH bee o
Gilma GIL mah
Hector
Ileana ill ay AH nah
John
Kristy
Lane
Miriam
Norman
Olivia
Paul
Rosa
Sergio SIR gee oh
Tara
Vicente vee CEN tay
Willa
Xavier ZAY vier
Yolanda yo LAHN da
Zeke
2001
Adolph
Barbara
Cosme COS may
Dalila
Erick
Flossie
Gil
Henriette hen ree ETT
Ismael ees mah EL
Juliette
Kiko KEE ko
Lorena low RAY na
Manuel mahn WELL
Narda
Octave AHK tave
Priscilla
Raymond
Sonia SONE yah
Tico TEE koh
Velma
Wallis
Xina ZEE nah
York
Zelda ZEL dah
2002
Alma AL mah
Boris
Cristina
Douglas
Elida ELL ee dah
Fausto FOW sto
Genevieve
Hernan her NAHN
Iselle ee SELL
Julio HOO lee o
Kenna
Lowell
Marie
Norbert
Odile oh DEAL
Polo
Rachel
Simon
Trudy
Vance
Winnie
Xavier ZAY vier
Yolanda yo LAHN da
Zeke
2003
Andres ahn DRASE
Blanca BLAHN kah
Carlos
Dolores
Enrique anh REE kay
Felicia fa LEE sha
Guillermo gee YER mo
Hilda
Ignacio eeg NAH cio
Jimena he MAY na
Kevin
Linda
Marty
Nora
Olaf OH lahf
Patricia
Rick
Sandra
Terry
Vivian
Waldo
Xina ZEE nah
York
Zelda ZEL dah
2004
Agatha
Blas
Celia
Darby
Estelle
Frank
Georgette
Howard
Isis
Javier
Kay
Lester
Madeline
Newton
Orlene
Paine
Roslyn
Seymour
Tina
Virgil
Winifred
Xavier
Yolanda yo LAHN da
Zeke
2005
Adrian
Beatriz BEE a triz
Calvin
Dora
Eugene
Fernanda fer NAN dah
Greg
Hilary
Irwin
Jova Ho vah
Kenneth
Lidia
Max
Norma
Otis
Pilar
Ramon rah MONE
Selma
Todd
Veronica
Wiley
Xina ZEE nah
York
Zelda ZEL dah
TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES AND PRONUNCIATION GUIDES
CENTRAL PACIFIC
LIST 1 LIST 2
AKONI ah-KOH-nee AKA AH-kah
EMA EH-mah EKEKA eh-KEH-kak
HANA HAH-nah HALI HAH-lee
IO EE-oo IOLANA ee-OH-lah-nah
KELI KEH-lee KEONI keh-ON-nee
LALA LAH-lah LI LEE
MOKE MOH-keh MELE MEH-leh
NELE NEH-leh NONA NOH-nah
OKA OH-kah OLIWA oh-LEE-vah
PEKE PEH-keh PAKA PAH-kah
ULEKI oo-LEH-kee UPANA oo-PAH-nah
WILA VEE-lah WENE WEH-neh
LIST 3 LIST 4
ALIKA ah-LEE-kah ANA AH-nah
ELE EH-leh ELA EH-lah
HUKO HOO-koh HALOLA hah-LOH-lah
IOKE ee-OH-keh IUNE ee-OO-neh
KIKA KEE-kah KIMO KEE-moh
LANA LAH-nah LOKE LOH-keh
MAKA MAH-kah MALIA mah-LEE-ah
NEKI NEH-kee NIALA nee-AH-lah
OLEKA oh-LEH-kah OKO OH-koh
PENI PEH-nee PALI PAH-lee
ULIA oo-LEE-ah ULIKA oo-LEE-kah
WALI WAH-lee WALAKA wah-LAH-kah
NOTE: Use Column 1 list of names until exhausted before going to Column 2, etc. All letters in the Hawaiian language are pronounced, including double or triple vowels.
INTERNATIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES FOR THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC and SOUTH CHINA SEA
CONTRIBUTOR
I
II
III
IV
V
NAME
NAME
NAME
NAME
NAME
Cambodia
Damrey
Kong-rey
Nakri
Krovanh
Sarika
China
Longwang
Yutu
Fengshen
Dujuan
Haima
DPR Korea
Kirogi
Toraji
Kalmaegi
Maemi
Meari
HK, China
Kai-tak
Man-yi
Fung-wong
Choi-wan
Ma-on
Japan
Tembin
Usagi
Kammuri
Koppa
Tokage
Lao PDR
Bolaven
Pabuk
Phanefone
Ketsana
Nock-ten
Macau
Chancu
Wutip
Vongfong
Parma
Muifa
Malaysia
Jelawat
Sepat
Rusa
Melor
Merbok
Micronesia
Ewiniar
Fitow
Sinlaku
Nepartak
Nanmadol
Philippines
Bilis
Danas
Hagupit
Lupit
Talas
RO Korea
Kaemi
Nari
Changmi
Sudal
Noru
Thailand
Prapiroon
Vipa
Megkhla
Nida
Kularb
U.S.A.
Maria
Francisco
Higos
Omais
Roke
Viet Nam
Saomai
Lekima
Bavi
Conson
Sonca
Cambodia
Bopha
Krosa
Maysak
Chantu
Nesat
China
Wukong
Haiyan
Haishen
Dainmu
haitang
DPR Korea
Sonamu
Podul
Pongsona
Mindulle
Nalgea
HK, China
Shanshan
Lingling
Yanyan
Tingting
Banyan
Japan
Yagi
Kajiki
Kujira
Kompasu
Washi
Lao PDR
Xangsane
Faxai
Chan-hom
Namtheun
Matsu
Macau
Bebinca
Vamei
Linfa
Malou
Sanva
Malaysia
Rumbia
Tapah
Nangka
Meranti
Mawar
Micronesia
Soulik
Mitag
Sondelor
Rananim
Guchol
Philippines
Cimaron
Hagibis
Imbudo
Malakas
Talim
RO Korea
Chebi
Noguri
Koni
Megi
Nabi
Thailand
Durian
Ramasoon
Hanuman
Chabu
Khanun
U.S.A.
Utor
Chataan
Etau
Kodo
Vicente
Viet Nam
Trami
Halong
Vamco
Songda
Saola
NOTE: Names will be assigned in rotation starting with DAMREY for the first tropical cyclone of the year 2000 which is of storm strength or greater. When the last name in column five (SAOLA) is used the sequence will begin again with the first name in column one (DAMREY).