COMMERCE IMAGE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1325 East-West Highway
Silver Spring, Maryland 20910-3283

                             

May 23, 1997                                                    W/OM12:KCM

 

TO:              All Holders of Operations Manual

SUBJECT: Transmittal Memorandum for Operations Manual Issuance 97-3

1.    Material Transmitted:

        WSOM Chapter C-41, Tropical Cyclone Program.

2.    Effective Date:

        June 1, 1997

3.    Summary:

a.    Section 2.j, minor revisions to Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale to add wind speeds in knots and clarify some other wording.
b.    Section 3.3.3, clarified responsibilities shifted to NWSO Tiyan, Guam.
c.    Section 3.5 of the 1996 edition of the WSOM has been deleted since the notifications discussed there are no longer applicable.
d.    Section 3.6, reference to coordination between HPC and affected RFCs is added.
e.    Section 3.11, revised definition of responsibilities at WSOs and deleted reference to Appendix F. Also deleted other references in C-41 to WSOs.
f.    Section 3.16.c and d, clarified that the SDM should reflect needed actions not only for coastal offices impacted by tropical cyclones, but also inland offices by including references to "Inland High Wind Watches/Warnings for Hurricane Force Winds."
g.    Section 3.18 specifies that AFOS category LSR should be used by inland offices to report the impacts of a tropical cyclone. PSH will continue to be used by coastal offices.
h.    Section 4.2 and 4.3, revised to eliminate the TAFB- produced SIM, but much of the information is now included in their TWD.
i.    Section 4.7.2.a, a code string for the ATCF will be added to the header of the TCM messages from TPC to enable automated identification of each storm for verification, etc.
j.    Section 4.7.2.c, the second sentence is deleted since it is redundant with 4.7.2.b.
k.    Section 4.11, the issuance times of the HPC storm summaries are revised to 2 per day vs. 4 per day.
l.    Section 5.1.1, HLSs may be discontinued once a tropical cyclone is no longer a threat to the office's CWA.
m.    Section 5.1.3, the use of combined HLS/NOW messages is discontinued.
n.    Section 5.1.6, deleted combined HLS and RNS since the RNS is no longer produced.
o.    Section 7, deleted reference to FCM-P12.
p.    Appendix A, added WMO identifiers for NWSO Tiyan public advisories.
q.    Appendix A, deleted TAFB SIM identifier.
r.    Appendix B, modified (added/deleted) listing of breakpoints based on input from regional and field offices.
s.    Appendix E, updated listings of tropical cyclone names.
t.    Appendix F, the entire appendix is deleted as wording within the chapter makes it clear which offices must provide post storm reports.

4.    Effects on Other Instructions:

Supersedes WSOM Chapter C-41, Transmittal Issuance 96-3, dated May 1, 1996.

 

Elbert W. Friday
Assistant Administrator
for Weather Services



                                       U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
                                        National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
                                      
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
                                        1325 East-West Highway
                                        Silver Spring, Maryland 20910-3283
                                        June 30/ 1998                                                     W/OM12:DKP

MEMORANDUM FOR: All Holders of Operations Manual

SUBJECT:                 Transmittal Memorandum for Operations Manual Issuance 98-3

1.    Material Transmitted:

Page changes for WSOM Chapter C-41, Tropical Cyclone Program, including updated appendices.

2.    Effective Date:

June 1, 1998

3.    Summary:

A.    On Page 12, added WSOs Hilo, Lihue, and Kahului, HI; as WSOs that have local warning responsibilities (section 3.10). Subtracted WSO Huntsville, AL; as the Birmingham NWSFO now has responsibility for the former Huntsville warning area.

B.    In page 17, paragraph 4.4, tropical weather outlooks for the central Pacific were increased to four per day, with the proper issuance times listed.

C.    Added hurricane local statement (HLS) product and AFOS/WMO/NWWS backup identifiers in Appendix A.

D.    In the Appendix A, former Honolulu Satellite Tropical Disturbance Summary products were moved to Satellite Tropical Discussion product identifiers HNLTWDPxx.

E.    In Appendix A list of tropical cyclone products, the Position and Intensity from Satellite data issued by Honolulu was noted to cover the south Pacific east of 160E.

F.    In Appendix A list of tropical cyclone warning products, the office designator for warning products for the southwest Pacific was changed from PHNL to PGTW.

G.    In Appendix A list of satellite tropical discussions from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, each item was modified to properly indicate the area these products cover.

H.    The High Seas Forecasts listed in Appendix A were modified to include those issued by Honolulu for the north central and south central Pacific.

I.    In the Appendix B list of watch/warning break points, * was added to Matagorda, TX; Morgan City, LA; and Deerfield Beach, FL; to designate these as additional points that are also marine forecast break points. Fenwick Island, DE; was deleted from the list of break points. The spelling of the break point south of Galveston Island, TX, was changed from San Louis Pass to San Luis Pass.

J.    The footnote was added to the (2003) name list for eastern Pacific cyclones, since the appendix E is subject to change pending possible retirement of three cyclones.

4.    Effects on Other Instructions:

Page and appendix changes supersede WSOM Chapter C-41, Transmittal Issuance 97-3, dated May 23, 1997.

 

 

John J. Kelly, Jr.
Assistant Administrator
for Weather Services


Issue Date   Org. Code                                                                     Part Chap
5-23-97  W/OM12                                                                         C 41
Operations Manual

TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGRAM

Table of Contents:

        1. Introduction

                1.1 Transition to the Modernized and Restructured NWS

* 2. Definitions

* 3. Organizational Responsibilities

                3.1 Weather Service Headquarters (WSH)
                3.2 Regional Headquarters (RH)
*        3.3 Tropical Cyclone Prediction Centers
                * 3.3.1 Tropical Prediction Center (TPC)
                        3.3.2 Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
                * 3.3.3 Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
                3.4 Transfer of Responsibility for Issuing Advisories
                3.5 Post-Storm Reports
        * 3.6 Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC)
        * 3.7 Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
                3.8 River Forecast Centers (RFC) and Other Offices with Hydrologic Responsibilities
        * 3.9 NEXRAD Weather Service Forecast Offices (NWSFO)
        * 3.10 Weather Service Offices (WSO)
        * 3.11 NEXRAD WSO (NWSO)
                3.12 Warning Dissemination
                3.13 Public Preparedness and Evacuation Recommendations
        * 3.14 Radar Responsibilities
        * 3.15 Emergency Operating Instructions
                3.16 Emergency Warnings Exercises
        * 3.17 Emergency Action When Warning Not Received or Considered Inadequate
        * 3.18 Preliminary Post-Storm Reports by NWSFOs and NWSOs
                3.19 Information for Storm Survey Reports
                3.20 Preliminary Storm Reports
        * 3.21 NOAA Weather Wire Service (NWWS)
                3.22 National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS)

* 4. Tropical Cyclone Center and NCEP Issuances
                4.1 Satellite Tropical Discussion
        * 4.2 Satellite Interpretation Message
        * 4.3 Tropical Weather Discussion
                4.4 Tropical Weather Outlook
                4.5 Tropical Weather Summary
        * 4.6 Special Tropical Disturbance Statement
        * 4.7 Standard Tropical Cyclone Forecast Products
                        4.7.1 Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories
                * 4.7.2 Tropical Cyclone Forecasts/Advisories
                        4.7.3 Tropical Cyclone Discussion
                        4.7.4 Tropical Cyclone Updates
                * 4.7.5 Tropical Cyclone Position Estimate
                * 4.7.6 Strike Probability Forecast of Tropical Cyclone Conditions
        * 4.8 Standard Subtropical Cyclone Forecast Products
                * 4.8.1 Subtropical Cyclone Public Advisories
                        4.8.2 Subtropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory
                4.9 Naming and Numbering Tropical and Subtropical Cyclones
                        4.9.1 Identifying Tropical and Subtropical Depressions by Number
                        4.9.2 Naming Tropical Cyclones
                        4.9.3 Naming of Subtropical Cyclones
                4.10 Numbering Advisories and Tropical Cyclone Discussions
        * 4.11 Storm Summaries
                4.12 Correction Procedures

* 5. NWSFO/NWSO Issuances

        * 5.1 Hurricane/Typhoon Local Statements (HLS)
                * 5.1.1 Times and Circumstances of Issuance
                        5.1.2 Format and Content
                * 5.1.3 Relationship of HLSs to the NOW
                * 5.1.4 Optional Use of Special Weather Statements for Probability of Tropical
                                        Cyclone Conditions
                        5.1.5 Optional Use of Probabilities on NOAA Weather Radio
            5.2 Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm, and Flash Flood Warnings
*    5.3 Inland High Wind Watches and Warnings for Hurricane Force Winds
                * 5.3.1 Inland High Wind Watches for Hurricane Force Winds
                * 5.3.2 Inland High Wind Warnings for Hurricane Force Winds
                * 5.3.3 Use of Short-Term Forecasts and Statements Once the Effects of the Storm
                                        are Felt on Land
                        5.3.4 Inland High Wind Watches and Warnings for Subtropical and Extratropical Storms
            5.4 Warning Information in Public and Marine Forecasts
                        5.4.1 Warning Information in Zone Forecast
     *   5.5 Correction Procedures

* 6. Coordination of Advisories and Other Forecasts and Statements

        * 6.1 Tropical Cyclone Forecasts and Advisories
                * 6.1.1 Atlantic
                * 6.1.2 Pacific
                6.2 Other Advisories
                6.3 Hurricane/Typhoon Local Statements
                6.4 Flooding
                6.5 Tornadoes
                6.6 Military Services
                6.7 Coastal Marine Warnings

* 7. Backup of Tropical Cyclone Centers

Appendixes:

*        A -     Tropical Cyclone Assessment and Warning Products
*        B -    Official Defining Points for Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
          C -      Estimated Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Times
          D -    Geographical Defining Points and Phonetic Pronunciations
*        E -    Tropical Cyclone Names and Pronunciation Guides

NOTE 1: In implementing this Chapter, negotiations between the NWS and the National Weather Service Employees Organization have been completed. The generic set of proposals for implementing WSOM issuances involving new or modified products and/or services apply. Please inform the steward assigned to your office about this new Chapter.

NOTE 2: An * precedes each section changed in this issuance.

 

WSOM Issuance
97-3 5-23-97


1. Introduction. The National Weather Service (NWS) has no greater statutory responsibility than preparing and distributing warnings and forecasts of impending severe weather. There will be times when routine work has to be temporarily suspended in order to distribute an urgent tropical cyclone warning, watch, or pertinent hurricane/typhoon local statement (HLS) to the public. This Weather Service Operations Manual (WSOM) chapter provides basic instructions for the NWS tropical cyclone warning service. Field personnel, while operating within the framework of these guidelines, are encouraged to be resourceful and to exercise professional judgment in meeting unusual situations.

1.1 Transition to the Modernized and Restructured NWS. The NWS is proceeding with the modernization and associated restructuring (MAR). Office designations and responsibilities change during the different stages of the transition. This chapter describes the different functions of each type of office as the NWS transitions toward modernization: Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) Weather Service Forecast Offices (NWSFO), Weather Service Offices (WSO), and NEXRAD WSOs (NWSO).

Guidance outlined in this chapter will be valid through that period of the MAR that is characterized by the introduction of the Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D), which was developed by the NEXRAD program, and the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS). During this period, NWSFOs and NWSOs should use their new technology to prepare more detailed real-time and short-term forecast enhancements to the ongoing weather event. This chapter addresses the tropical cyclone warning service responsibilities of each office (WSO, NWSFO, NWSO, and National Center) during the transition to the modernized and restructured NWS.

New products or procedures will most likely be introduced during the transition. This chapter will be either rewritten or amended by means of an Operations Manual Letter to accommodate changes as they unfold.

* 2. Definitions.

a. Advisory. Official information issued by Tropical Cyclone Centers describing all tropical cyclone watches and warnings in effect along with details concerning tropical cyclone locations, intensity and movement, and precautions that should be taken. Advisories are also issued to describe (a) tropical cyclones prior to issuance of watches and warnings and (b) subtropical cyclones.

* b. High Wind Warning. The high winds described here exclude those directly associated with severe local storms. A high wind warning is required when either of the following occur or are expected to occur in the near term:

1. Sustained surface wind speeds (l-minute average) of 40 mph (35 knots) or greater lasting for 1 hour or longer, or

2. sustained winds or gusts of 58 mph (50 knots) or greater for any duration.

c. Hurricane/Typhoon Eve. The relatively calm area in the center of the storm. In this area, winds are light and the sky often is only partly covered by clouds.

d. Hurricane/Typhoon Season. The part of the year having a relatively high incidence of hurricanes. In the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico,1 and central Pacific, the hurricane season is the period from June through November; in the eastern Pacific, May 15 through November 30. The western Pacific tropical cyclones can occur year-round.

e. Hurricane/Typhoon Warning. A warning that l-minute sustained surface winds of 64 knots (74 mph) or higher associated with a hurricane or typhoon are expected in a specified coastal area within 24 hours or less. A hurricane or typhoon warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves continue even though winds may be less than hurricane or typhoon force.

f. Hurricane/Typhoon Watch. An announcement for specific areas that a hurricane/typhoon or an incipient hurricane/typhoon condition poses a possible threat to coastal areas generally within 36 hours.

g. Hurricane/Typhoon Local Statement (HLS). A public release prepared by WSOs, NWSFOs, or NWSOs in or near a threatened area giving specific details for its county/parish warning area (CWA) on (1) weather conditions, (2) evacuation decisions made by local officials, and (3) other precautions necessary to protect life and property (see section 5.1 for further details).

h. National Hurricane Operations Plan (NHOP). The NHOP is issued annually by the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research. It documents interdepartmental agreements relating to tropical cyclone observing, warning, and forecasting services. The National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) serve as the principal offices in coordinating the day-to-day activities of the NWS in support of the Plan in their region of responsibility.

I. Probability of Tropical Cyclone Conditions. The probability, in percent, that the cyclone center will pass within 50 miles to the right or 75 miles to the left of the listed location within the indicated time period when looking at the coast in the direction of the cyclone's movement.

* j. Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS). A scale ranging from one to five based on the hurricane's present intensity. This can be used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane.

_________________
1 The Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico will hereafter
be referred to as Atlantic, unless otherwise stated.

This scale may be used in public hurricane releases although the SSHS may not be applicable for all geographical areas, e.g., Hawaii and Guam. In practice sustained surface wind speed (1-minute average) is the parameter that determines the category since storm surge is strongly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf.

ONE. Winds 74-95 mph. (65-82 kts.) No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Also, some coastal flooding and minor pier damage.

TWO. Winds 96-110 mph. (83-95 kts.) Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to vegetation, mobile homes, etc. Flooding damages piers and small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.

THREE. Winds 111-130 mph. (96-113 kts.) Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Mobile homes are destroyed. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by floating debris. Terrain may be flooded well inland.

FOUR. Winds 131-155 mph. (114-135 kts.) More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failure on small residences. Major erosion of beach areas. Terrain may be flooded well inland.

FIVE. Winds greater than 155 mph. (greater than 135 kts.) Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Flooding causes major damage to lower floors of all structures near the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas may be required.

Note: A "major" hurricane is one that is classified as a Category 3 or higher.

k. Short Term Forecast (NOW). Issued at frequent intervals, these products give the short-term status of events and short-term forecasts. When issued every hour or so during active weather, they are effective in conveying timely and sometimes vital information about a potential or existing hazard. The product is available under the Automation of Field Operations and Services (AFOS) category "NOW." See section 5.1.3 and WSOM Chapter C-21, Local and Regional Statements, Summaries, and Tables, for further details concerning NOWs.

l. Storm Surge. An abnormal rise in sea level accompanying a tropical cyclone or other intense storm and whose height is the difference between the observed level of the sea surface and the level that would have occurred in the absence of the storm. Storm surge is usually estimated by subtracting the normal or astronomical tide from the observed storm tide.

m. Storm Tide. The actual sea level resulting from the astronomical tide combined with the storm surge. This term is used interchangeably with "hurricane tide."

n. Mean Sea Level (MSL). The arithmetic mean of hourly water elevations observed over a specific 19-year tidal epoch.

o. Mean Low Water (MLW). The arithmetic mean of the low water heights observed over a specific 19-year tidal epoch.

p. Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW). The arithmetic mean of the lower low water heights of a mixed tide observed over a specific 19-year tidal epoch. Only the lower low water of each pair of low waters, or the only low water of a tidal day is included in the mean.

q. Subtropical Cyclones. Nonfrontal, low pressure systems comprising initially baroclinic circulations developing over subtropical waters.

r. Subtropical Depression. A subtropical cyclone in which the maximum 1-minute sustained surface wind is 33 knots (38 mph) or less. These are referred to as low pressure systems in public advisories and statements.

s. Subtropical Storm. A subtropical cyclone in which the maximum 1-minute sustained surface wind is 34 knots (39 mph) or more. There are two types, each of which can evolve into a tropical storm or hurricane/typhoon. These are referred to as storms in public advisories and statements.

(1) An upper level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the pressure center.

(2) A mesoscale cyclone originating in or near a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, with radius of maximum sustained winds generally less than 30 miles. The entire circulation sometimes encompasses an area initially no more than 100 miles in diameter. These generally shortlived, marine cyclones may vary in structure from cold to warm core.

t. Tropical Storm Warning. A warning for tropical storm conditions, including 1-minute sustained surface winds within the range 34 to 63 kts (39 to 73 mph) that are expected in a specified coastal area within 24 hours.

u. Tropical Storm Watch. An announcement that a tropical storm or tropical storm conditions pose a threat to coastal areas generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch should normally not be issued if the tropical cyclone is forecast to attain hurricane strength.

v. Tropical Weather Systems.

(1) Tropical Disturbance. A discrete tropical weather system of apparently organized convection--generally 100 to 300 mi in diameter--originating in the tropics or subtropics, having a nonfrontal migratory character and maintaining its identity for 24 hours or more. It may or may not be associated with a detectable perturbation of the wind field.

(2) Tropical Wave. A trough or cyclonic curvature maximum in the trade wind easterlies. The wave may reach maximum amplitude in the lower middle troposphere or may be the reflection of an upper tropospheric cold low or an equatorward extension of a mid-latitude trough.

(3) Tropical Cyclone. A generic term for a non-frontal synoptic scale cyclone originating over tropical or subtropical waters with organized convection and definite cyclonic surface wind circulation.

(a) Tropical Depression. A tropical cyclone in which the maximum 1-minute sustained surface wind is 33 knots (38 mph) or less.

(b) Tropical Storm. A tropical cyclone in which the maximum 1-minute sustained surface wind ranges from 34 to 63 knots (39 to 73 mph) inclusive.

(c) Hurricane/Typhoon. A tropical cyclone in which the maximum 1-minute sustained surface wind is 64 knots (74 mph) or greater.

w. Gale Warning. A warning of 1-minute sustained surface winds in the range 34 knots (39 mph) to 47 knots (54 mph) inclusive, either predicted or occurring not directly associated with tropical cyclones.

x. Storm Warning. A warning of 1-minute sustained surface winds of 48 knots (55 mph) or greater, either predicted or occurring, not directly associated with tropical cyclones.

* 3. Organizational Responsibilities.

3.1 Weather Service Headquarters (WSH). Overall responsibility for the tropical cyclone warning service rests with the Assistant Administrator for Weather Services. Staff assistance is provided by the Director, Office of Meteorology, with the Chief, Integrated Hydrometeorological Services, Service Division, serving as principal advisor.

3.2 Regional Headquarters (RH). RH shall ensure that all offices are prepared for the hurricane/typhoon season. This involves: (1) a review of policies on overtime and emergency staffing; (2) a review of pertinent manual instructions; (3) conducting tropical cyclone operations drills (WSOM Chapter A-17, Emergency Drills); and (4) updating the Station Duty Manual (WSOM Chapter A-13, Station Duty Manual). Other RH duties include:

a. Development of Disaster Preparedness. See WSOM Chapter C-49, Warning Coordination and Hazard Awareness Program, sections 5.1-5.7.

b. Providing Special Reports on Significant Weather-Related Events. See WSOM Chapter J-02, Special Reports on Weather Related and Other Major Events.

c. Surveying Major Damage Areas. See WSOM Chapter J-06, Natural Disaster Surveys.

d. Ensuring a Preliminary Report on Effects of Tropical Cyclones. RH should ensure that all NWSFOs and NWSOs affected by a tropical storm, hurricane/typhoon, or their remnants promptly relay all pertinent information requested in sections 3.21 and 3.22 to the responsible Tropical Cyclone Center, WSH, and other appropriate offices.

e. Coordination of the temporary detailing of additional staff to those offices most likely to be impacted by the tropical cyclone.

f. Conducting regional-level briefings with other environmentally-attuned agencies regarding the tropical cyclone's current status and potential impact.

* 3.3 Tropical Cyclone Prediction Centers. The tropical cyclone warning service is an interdepartmental effort to provide the United States and designated recipients with warnings, forecasts, and assessments, concerning tropical and subtropical weather systems. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) through its NWS provides these services for the Atlantic and eastern and central Pacific Oceans while the Department of Defense through its Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) provides the same services for the western Pacific and Indian Oceans. Interdepartmental cooperation achieves economy and efficiency in the operation of the tropical cyclone service.

The procedures contained herein apply to the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and North Pacific east of the 180th meridian. This operations manual defines the role of the individual centers in the delivery of service in any specific area. The goal of these centers is to provide timely dissemination of warnings, forecasts, and all significant information regarding tropical and subtropical cyclones to appropriate agencies, the general public, and marine and aviation interests.

* 3.3.1 Tropical Prediction Center (TPC). TPC, under the Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), formerly NMC, has overall responsibility for hurricane warning services for the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific Ocean north of the equator and east of 140° west longitude. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is the unit within the TPC that is responsible for operational hurricane forecasts and is, therefore, referred to throughout this WSOM chapter. NHC has final authority for all meteorological decisions concerning the forecasting of tropical and subtropical systems in these areas and:

* a. serves as the official source for all hurricane information for the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans.

b. determines the total NWS requirement for tropical cyclone aircraft reconnaissance. All requests for military reconnaissance of tropical or subtropical cyclones will be made by the Director, NHC, or his/her designee. Procedures for requesting reconnaissance are found in the NHOP.

c. issues all public advisories and tropical cyclone forecasts/ advisories for the Atlantic and eastern Pacific.

d. makes the decision to run the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model for any tropical or subtropical storm over water in the Atlantic, or the eastern Pacific. NHC shall forward its requests to Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC). The Weather Forecast Branch of HPC determines when to run the GFDL model for storms that are expected to remain over land in which the primary threat is flash flooding.

e. provides backup operations to CPHC as detailed in the NCEP Backup Hurricane Operations Plan.

Specific products issued and coordination requirements are listed in appendix A and detailed in sections 4 and 6.

3.3.2 Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC). The CPHC, under the Director, Pacific Region, is responsible for tropical and subtropical cyclone warnings and forecasts for the Pacific Ocean north of the equator from 140° to 180° west longitude. In coordination with the NHC, the CPHC shall make its request for running the GFDL hurricane model to HPC.

Specific products issued and coordination requirements are listed in appendix A and detailed in sections 4 and 6.

* 3.3.3 Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The tropical and subtropical cyclone program west of 180° supporting military interests, including those in Guam, Rota, Palau, Tinian, and Saipan is the responsibility of JTWC. NWFO Tiyan, Guam provides tropical cyclone public advisories for those areas, using the JTWC forecast/advisory information as guidance.

3.4 Transfer of Responsibility for Issuing Advisories. When a tropical or subtropical cyclone approaches the line of division between Hurricane Centers responsible for issuing advisories, the forecaster who is currently handling the storm shall:

a. telephone the Center into whose area the storm is moving to plan for transferring responsibility after the issuance of the next advisory.

b. after agreement is reached, add a statement to the final advisory as follows: "THE NEXT ADVISORY ON (storm name) WILL BE ISSUED BY THE (appropriate Hurricane Center) AT (time in Coordinated Universal Time [UTC])."

The proper AFOS and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) message headers to be used by the gaining Center should be included in the final advisory.

When advisories are no longer required but storm summaries are still needed on a subtropical cyclone or named tropical cyclone that has moved inland, they shall be issued by HPC (see 3.7). An appropriate statement should be added to the last advisory indicating when HPC will begin issuing summaries. NHC shall coordinate with HPC to determine the time of issuance of the first storm summary.

3.5 Post-Storm Reports. Tropical Cyclone Centers shall prepare a final track chart and summary of all tropical cyclones occurring in their area of responsibility. Copies shall be sent as soon as practicable after the last advisory on each tropical cyclone to the appropriate RH(s), the Office of Meteorology's Integrated Hydrometeorological Services (IHS) (W/OM12), and the National Oceanographic Data Center (E/OC).

NHC should prepare a tropical cyclone season data tabulation for the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. CPHC should prepare similar summaries for the central Pacific. All tabulations should be distributed to appropriate government agencies.

* 3.6 Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC). NCEP's HPC has sole responsibility for forecasting tropical depressions once they have moved inland over the United States (except Florida and Hawaii, which remain with NHC and CPHC, respectively). Another function of HPC is to give Tropical Cyclone Centers the benefit of its expertise in the interpretation of the numerical guidance, including its forecast positions. HPC shall place on its prognostic charts NHC's and CPHC's tropical cyclone forecast positions out to 48 hours. In all cases, forecast charts shall contain a statement advising the user to refer to the latest tropical cyclone advisories.

When the HPC National Precipitation Prediction Unit (NPPU) expects rainfall of 4 inches or more from a tropical cyclone, the NPPU should telephone NHC, CPHC, and affected RFCs, and NWSFOs/NWSOs unless the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) has already been made available on the regional distribution circuits, and facsimile circuits. NPPU provides specialized QPF to River Forecast Centers (RFC) and critical flood support offices during flood threat periods. NPPU should give NHC and CPHC its QPFs for inclusion in advisories for storms expected to affect the United States.

HPC is responsible for issuing numbered storm summaries on subtropical or named tropical cyclones that have moved inland over the conterminous United States for which advisories are no longer required but a threat of flood-producing rainfall continues.

NCEP Central Operations (NCO) runs all appropriate models.

HPC provides backup operations for NHC (detailed in section 7).

* 3.7 Storm Prediction Center (SPC). SPC issues tornado watches as needed for areas affected by tropical and subtropical cyclones (regardless of intensity) after coordinating with NHC and all affected NWSFOs/NWSOs.

* 3.8 River Forecast Centers and Other Offices with Hydrologic Responsibilities. Part E of the WSOM provides detailed instructions concerning an office's hydrologic responsibilities.

* 3.9 NEXRAD Weather Service Forecast Offices (NWSFO). NWSFOs are responsible for maintaining consistency among all products they issue and the latest advisories issued by NHC, CPHC or HPC. The increased level of information derived from the WSR-88D will enable the office to provide more detailed and accurate short-term forecasts of ongoing weather events.

3.10 Weather Service Offices (WSO). With the exception of WSOs Hilo, Lihue and Kahului, Hawaii (which have CWA responsibilities for short term warnings); the WSOs no longer have warning responsibilities and merely provide liaison services to the community for the NWS office with responsibility for the area.

3.11 NEXRAD WSO (NWSO). The responsibilities of an NWSO are similar to those of an NWSFO. The increased level of information from the WSR-88D will enable the office to provide more detailed and accurate short-term updates of ongoing weather events.

3-12 Warning Dissemination. Offices may install temporary telephone facilities if required to adequately distribute tropical cyclone warnings and releases to the public.

3.13 Public Preparedness and Evacuation Recommendations. WSOM Chapter C-49 describes the public disaster preparedness responsibilities in considerable detail.

Local government officials are responsible for evacuating people from a threatened area. NWS offices should use whatever communication facilities that are available to ensure that these individuals understand the existing meteorological situation and uncertainties in the forecasts. HLSs should include evacuation decisions made by local officials. Additionally, this evacuation information should be mentioned in any media interviews provided by NWS offices.

Coastal offices should discuss evacuation responsibilities and establish operational and preparedness plans with local authorities in their CWAs before each tropical cyclone season. These plans should involve the appropriate state, county or parish, and local officials.

3.14 Radar Responsibilities. A field office should notify the appropriate supporting Tropical Cyclone Center via AFOS, hurricane coordination hotline, or phone whenever it observes any new development of possible interest to the Center, i.e., spiral bands, detection of the eye, significant changes in movement or intensity, etc.

* 3.15 Emergency Operating Instructions. National Centers and offices with primary and backup warning and forecast responsibilities for areas within 300 miles of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and east or south of the Appalachian ridges, in Hawaii, in Puerto Rico, in Guam, on the California coast from Point Conception southward, and in the southern North Pacific shall prepare and keep an up-to-date local Tropical Cyclone Emergency Operations Plan. The Plan should specify actions to be taken. The following shall be included in the Station Duty Manual: What to do;

        a. before each tropical cyclone season,

        b. when a tropical cyclone constitutes a possible threat to their CWA,

* c. when a Tropical Storm, Hurricane or Typhoon Watch, or Inland High Wind Watch for Hurricane Force Winds is issued for their CWA,

* d. when a Tropical Storm , Hurricane or Typhoon Warning, or Inland High Wind Warning for Hurricane Force Winds is issued for their CWA, and

        e. immediately after the tropical cyclone has passed.

A Tropical Cyclone Emergency Operations Plan should provide for a detailed chronology of events and a record of actions taken whenever a tropical cyclone watch or warning is in effect for the CWA and adjacent coastal waters. Copies of completed "checkoff lists" and NOAA Weather Wire Service (NWWS) issuances with times of transmission entered, etc., may constitute principal parts of the record. Offices having tape recorders may use them for recording direct broadcasts during the emergency. Significant actions not otherwise recorded should be documented.

3.16 Emergency Warnings Exercises. Practice exercises, as outlined in WSON Chapter A-17, should be conducted before the tropical cyclone season each year. Community exercise messages shall contain the word "EXERCISE" at the beginning and end of the text. Office backup and other appropriate drills should also be conducted.

* 3.17 Emergency Action When Warning Not Received or Considered Inadequate. When warnings are not received or are inadequate to cover current or imminent conditions, local offices should issue HLSs or warnings as needed. Whenever possible, the appropriate local office should be consulted and its clearance obtained before such action is taken. However, if communications failure prevents clearance or if the delay would jeopardize life or property, then immediate action should be taken and the appropriate Tropical Cyclone Center be notified as soon as possible (see section 5.1.1, paragraph 3).

* 3.18 Preliminary Post-Storm Reports by NWSFOs and NWSOs. Preliminary post-storm reports shall be prepared by all NWSFOs and NWSOs issuing HLSs on a storm. Non-coastal offices that issue Inland High Wind Watches/Warnings for Hurricane Force Winds shall also submit preliminary reports. Other offices shall prepare preliminary reports at the request of appropriate Tropical Cyclone Center(s). Offices need not issue a preliminary report if they only prepared HLSs for the purpose of suppressing rumors. Preliminary reports should be transmitted within 2 days following the transmission of the last public release. All preliminary reports should be addressed to the appropriate Tropical Cyclone Center or National Center and a copy to WSH, W/OM12, via AFOS using the AFOS category PSH. Inland offices impacted by a tropical cyclone or its remnants should provide the same information using AFOS category LSR.

In addition, within 5 days following the last HLS, NWSFOs and NWSOs shall mail an update of their preliminary reports to the appropriate Tropical Cyclone Center or National Center and a copy to WSH, W/OM12. This should include accounts of unusual storm damage (including photo copies of significant barograph or other recorder traces, pictures, etc.).

The following items should be included in preliminary reports and shall be included in the final updated report when available.

        a. Highest 1-minute sustained surface wind speed (knots), peak gust (knots), and date/times of occurrence in UTC. Also, report any other wind data in the CWA considered reliable and noteworthy and list adjusted speeds corrected for instrument type and speed range if known. Specify anemometer height (feet) if other than 33 feet and duration (minutes) if other than a 1-minute sustained average.

        b. Lowest sea level pressure (millibars), including date/time (UTC) of occurrence.

        c. Storm total rainfall amount (inches) and duration (dates). In addition, list maximum 1-, 6-, 12-, and 24-hour amounts (inches) identifying date/time (UTC) of occurrence.

        d. Maximum storm tide heights (feet) ASL and storm surge heights (feet) above normal. Identify location and date/time (UTC) of occurrence.

        e. Extent of beach erosion if appropriate.

        f. Flooding and/or flash flooding in CWA. Include date/times (UTC) and locations of occurrence.

        g. Tornadoes in CWA (times and locations).

        h. Preliminary storm effects, such as deaths, injuries, dollar damages, number of people evacuated, etc., within an office's CWA.

 

Example:

NEWPSHNEW
TTAA00 KNEW 032226

PRELIMINARY STORM REPORT...HURRICANE ANDREW
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
500 PM CDT MON SEP 3 1992

A. HIGHEST WINDS...

NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...
1 - MINUTE 39 KNOTS FROM 150 DEGREES 0950 UTC AUG 26 1992
PEAK GUST 72 KNOTS FROM 020 DEGREES AT 0728 UTC AUG 26 1992
P92 AMOS LOCATED AT SALT POINT, ST. NARY PARISH 19.5N 91.3W
...ETC

B. LOWEST PRESSURE...

LOWEST PRESSURE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT - 960.1 MB AT 0805 UTC AUG 26 1992 ...ETC

C. RAINFALL...

NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
STORM TOTAL 5.70 AUG 25-26 1992
1 HOUR TOTAL 0.89 0800-0900 UTC 26 AUG 1992
...ETC

D. STORM TIDES...

MARINA 4.28 2100 UTC AUG 26 1992
N END OF CAUSEWAY 4.94 1100 UTC AUG 26 1992
...ETC

E. BEACH EROSION...

LEVEL OF EROSION PRESENTLY UNKNOWN
...ETC

F. FLOODING...

STORM TIDE FLOODING TO THE ENTIRE LOUISIANA COAST FROM LAKE BORGNE
WEST TO VERMILION BAY...ETC

G. TORNADOES...

F3 TORNADO FROM LA PLACE TO RESERVE IN ST JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH...ETC

H. STORM EFFECTS...

TORNADO                         2 DEAD            32 INJURED
HURRICANE     4 DEAD UNKNOWN      2 MISSING

AN ESTIMATED ONE AND ONE QUARTER MILLION PEOPLE EVACUATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...ETC

3.19 Information for Storm Survey Reports. A copy of all releases, including tornado, high wind, marine, and flood/flash flood warnings; HLSs; and NOWs shall be mailed to the appropriate Tropical Cyclone Center and the appropriate RH within 7 days following the issuance of the last product concerning the storm.

3.20 Preliminary Storm Reports. Offices whose CWA is affected by a storm shall mail casualty and damage totals to the appropriate Tropical Cyclone Center(s) and W/OM12 within 30 days after the storm. As described in WSOM F-42, each field office is responsible for the preparation of Storm Data for its CWA. Tropical Cyclone Centers shall send copies of their preliminary reports to the National Climatic Data Center (E/CC) and W/OM12.

* 3.21 NOAA Weather Wire Service (NWWS). TPC and CPHC are responsible for transmitting all of their watches and warnings on the NWWS. Backup transmission responsibility resides with HPC. NWSFOs and NWSOs are responsible for NWWS transmission of HLSs and NOWs within their CWA.

3.22 National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS). NESDIS, through its Synoptic Analysis Branch (SAB), is responsible for advising HPC and the Tropical Cyclone Centers of the characteristics of tropical cyclone areas observed by satellite. Coordination between SAB and appropriate NWS personnel should be accomplished before scheduled advisories.

SAB is also responsible for issuing satellite precipitation estimates for all tropical cyclones or decayed tropical cyclones that have moved over land. This information is communicated to all NWS field offices via AFOS category SPENES.

* 4. Tropical Cyclone Center and NCEP Issuances.

4.1 Satellite Tropical Discussion. These discussions (AFOS category STD, see appendix A for appropriate WMO headers) are issued twice a day by CPHC to describe significant weather in the tropical regions of the central Pacific. Plain language is used.

* 4.2 Satellite Interpretation Message. These messages (AFOS category SIM for CPHC products and AFOS category MIM for Marine Prediction Center (MPC) products [see appendix A for appropriate WMO headers]) are issued several times a day to describe synoptic features and significant weather areas. Domestic contractions are used.

* 4.3 Tropical Weather Discussion. These messages (AFOS category TWD, see appendix A for applicable WMO headers) are issued four times a day by the TAFB and twice a day by the CPHC to describe significant synoptic weather features and significant weather areas in the tropics. One message will cover the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the Atlantic between the equator and 32° north latitude. A second message will be prepared for the eastern Pacific between the equator and 32° north and east of 140° west. Plain language is used.

4.4 Tropical Weather Outlook. The Tropical Weather Outlook (AFOS category TWO, see appendix A for applicable WMO headers) is prepared by NHC and CPHC during their respective tropical cyclone seasons. In the Atlantic, the outlook is transmitted at 0530, 1130, 1730, and 2230 Eastern local time. In the eastern Pacific, the transmission times are 0400, 1000, 1600, and 2200 Pacific local time; and in the central Pacific, 0200, 0800, 1400 and 2000 UTC. Normally, the outlook covers tropical and subtropical waters. The outlook discusses significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone development out to 48 hours. When possible, a brief nontechnical explanation of the meteorology behind the outlook should be included to satisfy media and public interests.

Tropical/subtropical cyclones shall be mentioned in the outlook. It should include the system's location (in either general terms or map coordinates), status, and change in status. For the first 24 hours of a tropical cyclone, the outlook shall include a statement that identifies the AFOS and WMO headers for the advisory (appendix A).

Example:

MIATWOAT
TTAA00 KNHC 110930

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 1992

FOR THE ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM LINDA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ON HURRICANE KEITH LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF AFRICA. UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERNS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A WELL ORGANIZED CLOUD SYSTEM EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE REMAIN COLD AND THEREFORE DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

SUMMARIES PERTAINING TO TROPICAL STORM LINDA AND HURRICANE KEITH WILL BE TRANSMITTED UNDER THE AFOS HEADER MIATWSAT AND THE WMO HEADER ABNT30 KNHC.

ELSEWHERE OVER THE TROPICS...CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY OR WEDNESDAY.

GERRISH

4.5 Tropical Weather Summary. This product (AFOS category TWS, see appendix A for applicable WMO headers) is prepared by each Tropical Cyclone Center after each month to summarize the previous month's tropical cyclone activity or lack of activity and the reason(s) why. The last TWS of the season will summarize November's activity plus the activity for the season as a whole. The TWS should be addressed to WSH, W/OM12, via AFOS by the 20th of the month for the previous month.

* 4.6 Special Tropical Disturbance Statement. Special tropical disturbance statements (AFOS category DSA, see appendix A for applicable WMO headers) are issued to furnish information on strong formative, nondepression systems. These statements should focus on the major threats of the disturbance, such as the potential for torrential rains on island or inland areas, and should be coordinated with the appropriate NWSFO or NWSO.

* 4.7 Standard Tropical Cyclone Forecast Products.

4.7.1 Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories. Public tropical cyclone advisories (AFOS category TCP, see appendix A for applicable WMO headers) are the primary tropical cyclone information products issued by Tropical Cyclone Centers to the public. In the Atlantic and central Pacific, public advisories shall be issued for all tropical cyclones. In the eastern Pacific, public advisories are issued for all tropical cyclones that are expected to affect land within 48 hours.

The initial advisory shall be issued when there are data (satellite, ship, aircraft, etc.) that confirm a tropical cyclone has developed. The title of the advisory will depend upon the strength of the tropical cyclone. A tropical depression advisory will be issued for a tropical cyclone with 1-minute sustained winds up to 33 knots (38 mph). A tropical storm advisory will be used for tropical cyclones with 1-minute sustained surface winds 34 to 63 knots (39 to 73 mph). A hurricane/typhoon advisory is used for tropical cyclones with winds 64 knots (74 mph) or greater.

Advisories shall headline watches and warnings for hurricane/typhoon and tropical storm conditions. In general, tropical storm watches should be issued for tropical storms within 36 hours of land that are not expected to reach hurricane/typhoon strength or for depressions near the coast expected to reach only tropical storm strength. Tropical storm warnings should be issued when tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast. Tropical storm warnings should be issued at the discretion of the hurricane specialist when gale warnings, not related to the pending tropical storm, are already in place. Hurricane specialists are encouraged to be resourceful and to exercise professional judgment in addressing such unusual situations. Accordingly, tropical storm warnings may be issued on either side of a hurricane/typhoon warning area.

Public advisories shall cease when tropical cyclones become extratropical, drop below depression stage, or move inland over large land areas, such as the United States (see HPC responsibility, section 3.7), Mexico, Canada, or Central America.

All public advisories shall use the mass media standard text heading (see WSOM Chapter C-63, NOAA Weather Wire Service Dissemination).

Since NWS credibility is enhanced by the proper pronunciation of geographical locations used in advisories, a list of names with phonetic pronunciations is included as appendix D.

        a. Format and Content. Advisories may begin with a lead statement or headline to highlight significant aspects of the tropical cyclone. This headline should be separated from the rest of the advisory. The information in the rest of the advisory should be in descending order of importance or urgency. At the end of the advisory, the tropical cyclone position should be repeated, and maximum winds, minimum pressure, present movement, and forecast movement (if change is indicated) may also be repeated. The time and office responsible for the next advisory should be given along with the new message headers if the tropical cyclone is passed to another Center. Following this, the forecaster's name should be included at the end of the message.

Advisories should summarize all coastal watches and warnings that are in effect, including hurricane/typhoon or tropical storm watches. The first advisory in which watches or warnings are mentioned should give the effective time of the watch or warning, except when they are being issued by other countries and the time is not known. Normally, a watch should not be made effective more than 36 hours before expected landfall. However, before weekends or holidays, a watch can be made effective 48 hours ahead of landfall. Generally, except for tropical storms and hurricanes/typhoons forming close to land, a watch should precede a hurricane/typhoon or tropical storm warning. Once a watch is in effect, it should either be replaced by a warning or remain in effect until the threat of the tropical cyclone conditions has passed.

NOTE: A hurricane/typhoon watch and a tropical storm warning can be in effect for the same section of coast at the same time.

Tropical cyclone storm warnings normally should not be made effective more than 24 hours in advance. The term "SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY" should not normally be used in advisories. The phrase "SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT" is used in lieu of small craft advisory and is considered equivalent or even stronger when used in connection with tropical or subtropical cyclones. However, when lowering tropical cyclone warnings for a given coastal section where small craft advisories are to remain in effect, the following statement should be used: "SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST. SEE LOCAL NWS COASTAL FORECASTS FOR CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA." This statement should be contained in the NHC advisory discontinuing tropical storm warnings and the following NHC advisory if one is issued.

Normally, it is not advantageous to step down warnings for tropical cyclones. It is felt that this approach would cause more confusion for the media and public. This would especially be true for tropical cyclones whose tracks parallel the coast.

All advisories shall include the location of the center of the tropical cyclone both by its latitude and longitude and as distance and direction from a well known point preferably down stream from the tropical cyclone. If the hurricane/typhoon forecaster is unsure of the exact location of a depression, the position may be given as within 50, 75, etc., miles of a map coordinate. When the center of the tropical cyclone is over land, its position should be given with reference to the state or country in which it is located, as well as with respect to some well known city if appropriate. In addition, the present movement should be given to 16 points of the compass if possible. A 24-hour forecast of movement should be included in terms of a continuance or departure from the present movement and speed. This may be reduced to a 12-hour forecast if conditions do not permit a sufficiently high verification probability of the longer period forecast. Uncertainties in either the tropical cyclone's location or movement should be explained in the advisory. An outlook beyond 24 hours (out to 72 hours when appropriate) may be included in the text of the advisory.

Although movement forecasts apply to the tropical cyclone's center, landfall forecasts of the center should be made with caution to avoid giving the public any false sense of security. Other forecast parameters should be used to describe the center's landfall. When a threat to any land exists, it should be stressed that the tropical cyclone's effects extend well beyond the small area near the tropical cyclone's center.

Wind, pressure, and storm surge are used to describe the storm. The maximum 1-minute sustained surface wind speed should be given, and during landfall threats, specific gust values and phrases like "BRIEFLY HIGHER IN SQUALLS" may be used. The area (or radius) of both tropical and hurricane force winds may also be included. Central pressure values and storm surge heights (above normal astronomical tides) should be given where known.

Forecasts should be made for the maximum 1-minute sustained surface wind speed in all advisories. The expected times of onset of tropical storm and hurricane/typhoon force winds along the coast may be given in general terms, such as this afternoon or tonight, when warnings are in effect. Storm surge forecasts should give the time(s) of significant heights at areas along the coast and should include wave information if possible. When discussing storm surges, it should be indicated that these are values above normal tide levels. It should also be noted, in a qualitative sense, when surges are expected to occur during abnormally high and low astronomical tides. Intensity forecasts should be for 12 hours only and stated as an increase, decrease, or no change from the present intensity. The storm may also be compared to some memorable hurricane or referred to by a relative intensity. Accordingly, and where appropriate, the SSHS may be used in public releases.

The inland effects of tropical cyclones should also be highlighted in advisories. This includes the threat of strong winds, heavy rainfall, flooding, and tornadoes. The extent and magnitude of inland winds should be included as well as anticipated rainfall amounts and the potential for flooding and tornadoes. Tornado and flood watches should be included as appropriate. Actual occurrences of tornadoes, floods, and high winds should be mentioned to add a note of urgency and to support warnings and statements from local offices. Action statements in advisories should be general in nature with references to local office products for specific recommended actions.

Times referred to in advisories should be local time of the affected area except UTC should also be used in conjunction with storm location. Statute miles and statute miles per hour should be used in all advisories. Nautical miles/knots may be used in parentheses immediately following statute miles/mph in public advisories at the discretion of the Tropical Cyclone Center. Atlantic advisories should include the metric units of kilometers and kilometers per hour following the equivalent English units except when the United States is the only country threatened.

        b. Special Public Advisories. Special public advisories should be issued whenever one or more of the following criteria are met:

            (1) conditions require a hurricane/typhoon or tropical storm watch or warning to be issued;

            (2) a significant change has occurred, requiring the issuance of a revised forecast package;

The content of special advisories should generally be similar to that of the scheduled advisory. The meteorological condition that requires the issuance of the special advisory normally is highlighted. However, since special advisories are designed to update earlier scheduled advisories, their format and content should be less rigid.

        c. Intermediate Public Advisories. Intermediate public advisories are issued to ensure a more continuous flow of information to the public whenever a tropical cyclone affects a coast or is forecast to affect a coast. Intermediate advisories will not be used to issue tropical cyclone watches or warnings but may be used to clear all or a portion of a watch or warning area. The content. should be similar to that of the scheduled advisory. However, since intermediate advisories are designed to update earlier scheduled advisories, their format and content may be less formal and less complete.

        d. Times of Issuance.

             (1) Scheduled Public Advisories. Scheduled public advisories should be issued at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC with valid position times corresponding to the advisory time.

            (2) Special Public Advisories. Special public advisories are unscheduled products that should be issued whenever criteria described as in 4.7.1.b are met.

            (3) Intermediate Advisories. These advisories are normally issued on a 2 to 3 hourly interval between scheduled advisories. Three hourly intermediate advisories are normally issued whenever a tropical storm or hurricane watch is in effect. Two hourly intermediates are normally issued whenever tropical storm or hurricane warnings are in effect and coastal radars are able to provide the responsible Tropical Cyclone Center with a reliable hourly center position. For clarity, whenever the Tropical Cyclone Center is issuing intermediates, a statement shall be included at the end of the scheduled public advisory telling the users that an intermediate advisory will be issued, i.e., "AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM PST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT 5 PM PST."

NOTE: To ensure that the latest information is available for the heavily watched late evening local news shows, the following schedule should be observed when intermediate advisories are being issued (Atlantic Basin only).

Three hourly issuances...Scheduled advisories at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC. Intermediates at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC.

Two hourly issuances...Scheduled advisories at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC. Intermediates at 2300, 0100, 0500, 0700, 1100, 1300, 1700, and 1900 UTC.

Tropical Depression Public Advisory Example:

MIATCPAT3
TTAA00 KNHC 170300

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 16 1992

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC...

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER THE ATLANTIC MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. AT 11 PM AST... 0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 38.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1525 MILES...2240 KM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 21 MPH...25 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...40 KM/HR. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.2 NORTH LATITUDE AND 38.3 WEST LONGITUDE WITH MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST AT 21 MPH...25 KM/HR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35 MPH...40 KM/HR...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST...MONDAY.

MAYFIELD

Tropical Storm Public Advisory Example:

MIATCPAT3
TTAA00 KNHC 171500

TROPICAL STORM ANDREW ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1100 AM AST MON AUG 17 1992

...FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCATED IN THE ATLANTIC HAS STRENGTHENED DURING THE MORNING. TROPICAL STORM ANDREW IS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 1992 HURRICANE SEASON.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1175 MILES... 1880 KM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 MPH...45 KM/HR. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...70 KM/HR FROM THE STORM CENTER.

ANDREWS ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING ANDREWS 11 AM AST POSITION...13.0 NORTH LATITUDE AND 43.3 WEST LONGITUDE WITH MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST AT 25 MPH...30 KM/HR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 40 MPH...45 KM/HR AND AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST MONDAY.

GERRISH

Hurricane/Typhoon Public Advisory Example:

MIATCPAT3
TTAA00 KNHC 231700

HURRICANE ANDREW ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992

...DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE TAKING AIM ON SOUTH FLORIDA...

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE ALSO IN EFFECT NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE FLORIDA. IN ADDITION A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BAYPORT...TO INCLUDE THE GREATER TAMPA BAY AREA...TO NORTH OF FLAMINGO.

ALL PRECAUTIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY...INCLUDING ORDERED EVACUATIONS...SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR APPROXIMATELY 330 MILES... 430 KM EAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

HURRICANE ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 16 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY. ON THIS PRESENT COURSE HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON MONDAY.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 MPH...155 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LATEST AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE INDICATE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...50 KM FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...135 KM. LATEST AIRCRAFT REPORTED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 930 MB OR 27.46 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND UP TO 18 FEET OF STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND. STORM SURGES OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA COAST AND KEYS NEAR TO WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. SURGE HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 13 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN BISCAYNE BAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...25.4 NORTH LATITUDE AND 75.0 WEST LONGITUDE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 16 MPH...20 KM/HR. LATEST AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...155 KM/HR. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB OR 27.46 INCHES.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT 5 PM EDT.

MAYFIELD

Intermediate Public Advisory Example:

MIATCPAT3
TTAA00 KNHC 240658

HURRICANE ANDREW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FLORIDA
300 AM EDT MON AUG 24 1992

... EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ANDREW CLOSING IN ON SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE DRY TORTUGAS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF VENICE...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE...AND THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF VENICE TO BAYPORT. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

RADAR DATA...SATELLITE PICTURES...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ANDREW CONTINUES ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH. THE CENTER OF ANDREW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CITY OF MIAMI AROUND 5 AM THIS MORNING.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. FOWEY ROCKS...LOCATED ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN MIAMI... REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO 69 MPH DURING THE PAST HOUR.

AT 3 AM EDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF MIAMI. REPORTS FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOW 936 MB...27.64 INCHES.

ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...225 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

ANDREW IS EXPECTED TO LOSE LITTLE STRENGTH UPON MAKING LANDFALL AND CROSSING THE PENINSULA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION RELATED TO INLAND HIGH WIND WARNINGS REFER TO ISSUANCES BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. STORM SURGES OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND KEYS NEAR TO WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 13 FEET IN BISCAYNE BAY. STORM SURGES OF 7 TO 11 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER AFTER PASSAGE OF THE HURRICANE.

TORRENTIAL RAINS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF THE STORM AND ACROSS MOST OF EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING THE CITY OF MIAMI. THOUGH THE SPEED OF THE STORM SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MASSIVE INLAND FLOODING...RESIDENTS NEAR LAKES...DRAINAGE CANALS...AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

AT THIS POINT...ALL EVACUATIONS FOR STORM SURGE SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. THOSE NOT EXPECTED TO EVACUATE SHOULD HAVE TAKEN APPROPRIATE SHELTER FOR HIGH WINDS...INLAND FLOODING...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR ADVICE FROM THEIR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES AND LOCAL OFFICIALS FOR CRITICAL INFORMATION ON THE SPECIFIC THREATS FROM HURRICANE ANDREW.

REPEATING THE 3 AM EDT POSITION...25.4N...79.7W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

RAPPAPORT/GERRISH/PASCH

Special Public Advisory Example:

MIATCPAT3
TTAA00 KNHC 241309

HURRICANE ANDREW SPECIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
900 AM EDT MON AUG 24 1992

...HURRICANE ANDREW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF VENICE TO FLAMINGO AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AT 9 AM EDT A HURRICANE WATCH WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO SABINE PASS TEXAS. ALL OTHER POSTED WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED.

WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL NWS OFFICES FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS IN THEIR AREA.

AT 9 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR APPROXIMATELY 45 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

HURRICANE ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 18 MPH. THIS NOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD TO 30 MILES...50 KM FROM THE CENTER WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD TO 140 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGES OF 5 TO 8 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE HURRICANE. ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA STORM SURGE TIDES ARE DECREASING. PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT INDICATE THAT A STORM SURGE OF 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WAS RECORDED IN BISCAYNE BAY NEAR HOMESTEAD FLORIDA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 9 AM EDT POSITION...LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST AND MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT MON.

AVILA

* 4.7.2 Tropical Cyclone Forecasts/Advisories. Tropical Cyclone Forecasts/ Advisories (AFOS category TCM, see appendix A for appropriate WMO headers) are prepared for all tropical cyclones within a Tropical Cyclone Center's area of responsibility. All advisories shall contain forecasts through 72 hours. They provide invaluable wind field information to emergency managers, local decision makers, and other users who must make preparations and take response actions for the inland wind effects of tropical cyclones. Accordingly, inland interests should be apprised of the availability of this product and should be encouraged to use it in concert with the public advisories for decision-making purposes. Tropical cyclone forecasts/advisories shall cease when tropical cyclones become extratropical or drop below depression stage.

* a. Format and Content. Tropical Cyclone Forecasts/Advisories should contain appropriate information as shown in the following example. All advisories shall contain 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, and 72-hour forecast positions. A standard statement indicating the uncertainty associated with the 48- and 72-hour forecast positions shall precede those two forecasts. As part of the header, a code string is appended at the end of the line "NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL"

Format: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL BSNOYR
                        where: BS is the basin (AL, EP or CP)
                                        NO is the storm number (01, 02, 03,...99)
                                        YR is the last two digits of the year.

Example:

MIATCMAT3
TTAA00 KNHC 182100

HURRICANE BOB FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL0291
2100Z SUN AUG 18 1991

AT 5 PM EDT...HURRICANE WARNINGS WERE EXTENDED NORTH AND EASTWARD FROM CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE THROUGH PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS. THE WARNING AREA INCLUDES LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...CONNECTICUT EAST OF NEW HAVEN...AND CAPE COD. HURRICANE WARNINGS NOW EXTEND FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WERE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE DELAWARE BAY...AND CONTINUE FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF PATUXENT RIVER INCLUDING THE GREATER NORFOLK AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN POSTED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST COAST FROM PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTPORT MAINE.

CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 76.0W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

CURRENT MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 KT

AT 18/1800Z...CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 75.9W.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED AT 33.9N 76.0W AT 18/2100Z. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

DIAMETER OF EYE 20 NM
MAX WINDS 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
64 KT......100NE 100SE 25SW 25NW WIND RADII IN NM
50 KT......125NE 125SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT......150NE 150SE 75SW 75NW
12 FT SEAS 150NE 150SE 75SW 75NW

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 36.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
64 KT......100NE 100SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT......125NE 125SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT......150NE 150SE 75SW 75NW

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 41.ON 71.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT
64 KT......100NE 100SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT......125NE 125SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT......150NE 150SE 75SW 75NW

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.ON 66.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 105 KT
64 KT......100NE 100SE 25SW 25NW
50 KT......125NE 125SE 50SW 50NW
34 KT......150NE 150SE 75SW 75NW

STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE IS POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA OF NORTH CAROLINA AND 3 TO 5 FEET IN THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNED AREA. IN ADDITION...LARGE WAVES WITH BEACH EROSION WILL BE EXPERIENCED IN THE WARNED AREAS.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 76.0W.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 50.5N 60.0W
MAX WNDS 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT
50 KT...125NE 125SE 50SW 50NW

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 56.ON 47.0W
MAX WNDS 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT
50 KT...125NE 125SE 50SW 50NW

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

GERRISH

         b. Special Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory. The purpose of a special Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory is to update the various user community groups about any abrupt or significant change that may have occurred in a tropical cyclone. The format of the special Tropical Cyclone Forecast/ Advisory remains the same as the scheduled Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory it replaces. However, the content of the special advisory shall reflect the significant changes that required the special advisory to be issued.

* c. Intermediate Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory. There are no intermediate Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisories.

        d. Times of Issuance.

                (1) Scheduled Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory. Advisories are released at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC.

                (2) Special Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory. Special Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisories should be issued in conjunction with the issuance of a special public advisory (see section 4.7.1.b).

4.7.3 Tropical Cyclone Discussion. The tropical cyclone discussion (AFOS category TCD) is issued by the Tropical Cyclone Centers to explain the forecaster's reasoning behind the analysis and forecast of tropical cyclone characteristics.

        a. Format and Content. These discussions normally include prognostic reasoning; objective techniques employed; NHC, CPHC, and HPC guidance used; coordinated 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, and 72-hour tropical cyclone forecast points (unless the tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate, move inland, or become extratropical, in which case points will be given only to that point in time); maximum wind speed forecasts for each forecast point; other meteorological decisions; and plans for watches and warnings. The SSHS may be given when a storm is within 72 hours of the U.S. coast.

        b. Issuance Times. Tropical cyclone discussions shall be issued with all scheduled and special advisories. The NHC and CPHC should issue tropical cyclone discussions at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC. Additionally, for all areas, tropical cyclone discussions should be issued when a special advisory is issued. These discussions should be placed on the NWWS.

4.7.4 Tropical Cyclone Updates. Tropical cyclone updates (AFOS category TCU, see appendix A for appropriate WMO headers) are brief statements issued in lieu of or preceding special advisories to inform of significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel watches and warnings.

Example - CPHC:

HNLTCUCP
TTAA00 KHNL 222000

HURRICANE INIKI TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
100 PM PST SAT AUG 22 1992

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE WINDS IN INIKI HAVE REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH...

SHORTLY AFTER 1 PM PST...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM INIKI HAD INCREASED TO HURRICANE FORCE. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL HURRICANE ADVISORY AT 2 PM PST.

 

TRAPP

Example - JTWC:

WTPS22 PGTW 251800
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 251731Z FEB 92
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA, USCINCPAC SUVA FJ
AMEMBASSY HONIARA AND AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6S2 167.5E9 TO 17.8S6 164.1E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 025 TO 030 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 251700Z INDICATES A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S4 167.OE4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SYNOPTIC REPORTS OVER THE VANUATU ISLANDS INDICATE PRESSURES OF 1002 MB APPROXIMATELY 35 NM FROM THE STORM CENTER. ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 261800Z.

BT

Example - NAVPACMETOCCE:

WHPS21 PHNC 200700
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 200700Z NOV 94
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5S6 171.4W3 TO 15.2S8 166.9W2 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 020 TO 025 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 200300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3 170.0W8. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. THE SATELLITE INVESTIGATION IS SCHEDULED FOR 200900Z.

2. REMARKS: METSAT DATA WITHIN THE PAST 24 HOURS INDICATES STEADILY INCREASING CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION OF UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE SUSPECT AREA.

3. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 210100Z.

* 4.7.5 Tropical Cyclone Position Estimate. Tropical Cyclone Centers may issue a position estimate (AFOS category TCE, see appendix A for appropriate WMO headers) between 2-hourly intermediate advisories whenever the storm center is within 200 nautical miles of U.S. land-based radar and sufficient reliable radar center fix information is available to the Tropical Cyclone Center. When issuing HLSs or NOW, local offices use and depend upon position estimates furnished in advisories and as separate messages. Therefore, every effort should be made, when possible, to issue hourly tropical cyclone position estimates. Position estimates should give the location in map coordinates and distance and direction from a well known point. Position estimates should be transmitted near the beginning of the hour whenever they are prepared. The Tropical Cyclone Centers' position estimates shall be used in all official statements issued by NWSFOs and NWSOs.

Example:

NIATCEAT
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE HUGO...POSITION ESTIMATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
300 AN AST TUE SEP 19 1989

AT 3 AM AST THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUGO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST. THIS IS APPROXIMATELY 155 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SAN JUAN AND 220 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

LAWRENCE

* 4.7.6 Strike Probability Forecast of Tropical Cyclone Conditions. This product (AFOS category SPF, see appendix A for applicable WMO headers) describes the probability of tropical cyclone conditions and shall be issued in tabular form at the regularly scheduled public advisory times and when special public advisories are issued. These probabilities will generally be issued for all named storms in the Atlantic Basin forecast to be within 72 hours of landfall. In addition, NHC may issue probabilities for tropical depressions forecast to become named storms and be a threat to land within 72 hours. When a tropical cyclone is forecast to move parallel to a coastline, maximum values over water points should be included, and the public advisory should state that the highest probabilities are over water.

Probabilities will be computed for the following locations.

Brownsville, Texas
Ft. Pierce, Florida
Corpus Christi, Texas
Cocoa Beach, Florida
Port O'Connor, Texas
Daytona Beach, Florida
Galveston, Texas
Jacksonville, Florida
Port Arthur, Texas
Savannah, Georgia
New Iberia, Louisiana
Charleston, South Carolina
New Orleans, Louisiana
Myrtle Beach, South Carolina
Buras, Louisiana
Wilmington, North Carolina
Gulfport, Mississippi
Morehead City, North Carolina
Mobile, Alabama
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
Pensacola, Florida
Norfolk, Virginia
Panama City, Florida
Ocean City, Maryland
Apalachicola, Florida
Atlantic City, New Jersey
St. Marks, Florida
New York, New York
Cedar Key, Florida
Montauk Point, New York
Tampa, Florida
Providence, Rhode Island
Venice, Florida
Nantucket Island, Massachusetts
Fort Myers, Florida
Hyannis, Massachusetts
Marco Island, Florida
Boston, Massachusetts
Key West, Florida
Portland, Maine
Marathon, Florida
Bar Harbor, Maine
Miami, Florida
Eastport, Maine
West Palm Beach, Florida
 
29N 85W
28N 93W
29N 87W
28N 95W
28N 89W
27N 96W
28N 91W
25N 96W

NOTE: Probabilities are not issued for the west coast of the continental United States, Hawaii, Guam, or Micronesia.

The probabilities, which are based on the official forecast track, should be issued when the 72-hour forecast position approaches the coast and should be carried in advisories until the storm makes landfall. Two conditions in which probability information should not be issued are: (1) the hurricane/typhoon/ tropical storm has made landfall and is not expected to reemerge over water, and/or (2) computed probability values are not significant. NHC may discontinue issuance of probabilities earlier if other factors arise, such as difficulties with evacuation orders, etc. At the discretion of the hurricane forecaster, probabilities need not be listed for sites where the tropical storm or hurricane would likely be over land or less than tropical storm strength at the time it would affect the site. NHC may include a brief explanation of probabilities in the advisory.

The probabilities should be computed shortly after synoptic times for the periods 0-24, 24-36, 36-48, and 48-72 hours. A total probability for the next 72 hours should be shown in the last column and should represent a total of all forecast periods. The probability of the storm striking a coastal location within 48 hours may be determined by adding the 0-24, 24-36, and 36-48 hour probabilities. If the probability for a location is less than 1 percent, an "X" will be indicated in the table. If probabilities are not issued, a statement indicating this exclusion will be contained in both the public advisory and tropical cyclone forecast/advisory. Refer to Probability of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Conditions: A User's Manual for further information.

Example of probability of tropical cyclone conditions:

MIASPFAT1
TTAA00 KNHC 230900

STRIKE PROBABILITY FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992

HURRICANE ANDREW ADVISORY 28. PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS.

CHANCES IN PERCENT OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 11 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992.

COASTAL LOCATIONS
A
B
C
D
E
COASTAL LOCATIONS
A
B
C
D
E
25.SN 80.3W
40
X
X
X
40
VENICE FL
5
16
1
X
22
26.lN 83.3W
4
20
X
1
25
TAMPA FL
1
13
2
1
17
26.9N 86.2W
X
8
9
2
19
CEDAR KEYS FL
X
5
5
2
12
MUCF 22lN 805W
1
2
1
1
5
ST MARKS FL
X
1
4
5
10
MUSN 216N 826W
X
3
1
1
5
APALACHICOLA FL
X
1
6
5
12
MUHA 230N 824W
3
10
1
1
15
PANAMA CITY FL
X
X
6
5
11
MUAN 219N 850W
X
3
4
2
9
PENSACOLA FL
X
X
3
8
11
MMCZ 205N 869W
X
X
2
2
4
MOBILE AL
X
X
2
9
11
MYSM 241N 745W
13
X
X
X
13
GULFPORT MS
X
X
2
9
11
MYEG 235N 758W
2
X
X
X
2
BURAS LA
X
X
3
10
13
MYAK 24lN 776W
33
X
X
1
34
NEW ORLEANS LA
X
X
2
10
12
MYNN 251N 775W
68
X
X
X
68
NEW IBERIA LA
X
X
1
10
11
MYGF 266N 787W
43
X
X
X
43
PORT ARTHUR TX
X
X
X
10
10
                       
MMSO 238N 982W
X
X
X
3
3
GALVESTON TX
X
X
X
10
10
MMTM 222N 979W
X
X
X
2
2
FREEPORT TX
X
X
X
9
9
MMMD 21ON 897W
X
X
1
4
5
PORT OCONNOR TX
X
X
X
8
8
MARATHON FL
29
3
X
X
32
CORPUS CHRISTI TX
X
X
X
7
7
MIAMI FL
40
X
X
X
40
BROWNSVILLE TX
X
X
X
6
6
W PALM BEACH FL
32
1
X
X
33
GULF 29N 85W
X
2
8
4
14
FT PIERCE FL
17
5
X
1
23
GULF 29N 87W
X
1
7
6
14
COCOA BEACH FL
6
8
1
1
16
GULF 28N 89W
X
X
8
8
16
DAYTONA BEACH FL
1
5
2
2
10
GULF 28N 9lW
X
X
4
10
14
JACKSONVILLE FL
X
1
2
3
6
GULF 28N 93W
X
X
1
11
12
                       
SAVANNAH GA
X
X
X
2
2
GULF 28N 95W
X
X
X
10
10
KEY WEST FL
20
7
1
X
28
GULF 27N 96W
X
X
X
9
9
MARCO ISLAND FL
23
7
1
X
31
GULF 25N 96W
X
X
X
7
7
FORT MYERS FL
15
11
1
X
27
 
X
7
7
   

COLUMN DEFINITION...PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A...IS PROBABILITY OF STRIKE FROM NOW THROUGH 5 AM MON
B...IS PROBABILITY OF STRIKE FROM 5 AM MON THROUGH 5 PM MON
C...IS PROBABILITY OF STRIKE FROM 5 PM MON THROUGH 5 AM TUE
D...IS PROBABILITY OF STRIKE FROM 5 AM TUE THROUGH 5 AM WED
E...IS THE TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW THROUGH 5 AM WED
X...REPRESENTS PROBABILITIES LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

NOTE: Above probability table is provided as an example depicting the format. The probabilities included do not necessarily agree with the predicted forecast positions.

* 4.8 Standard Subtropical Cyclone Forecast Products.

* 4.8.1 Subtropical Cyclone Public Advisories. Public subtropical cyclone advisories are issued by the Tropical Cyclone Centers to provide the public with information about a subtropical cyclone. These messages are issued in the same AFOS category TCP that is used for tropical cyclone messages.

        a. Format and Content. The format and content of the public subtropical cyclone advisory should be similar to that of the public tropical cyclone advisory. The advisories should be properly titled as "SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION/STORM ADVISORY." However, in the body of the message, subtropical depressions/storms should always be referred to as just "DEPRESSIONS/STORMS." Items should be listed in order of importance with a lead statement, when appropriate, followed by a summary of all coastal warnings. Since the center of a subtropical cyclone can be poorly defined, its location in distance and direction from a well known point should be used. If the center is identifiable, latitude and longitude coordinates may be used. As with tropical cyclones, when a subtropical depression/storm moves inland and formal advisories are discontinued, the HPC shall write storm summaries. Probabilities shall not be used with public subtropical cyclone advisories.

Example:

MIATCPAT1
TTAA00 KNHC 120900

SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 1993

...COASTAL STORM BRINGS FLOOD THREAT TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

EVERYONE IN SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD BE PREPARED TO PROTECT THEMSELVES AGAINST FLOODING OR BE READY TO MOVE TO AREAS SAFE FROM FLOODING IF NECESSARY.

HEAVY RAINS FROM THE STORM CENTERED 50 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ARE OCCURRING OVER MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THE STORM IS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH BUT SHOULD SLOW DOWN BY TONIGHT. THIS MEANS RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 3 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND IN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.

...............rest if text not shown.......................

        b. Special Public Subtropical Cyclone Advisories. These advisories are issued to update the previously scheduled advisory whenever a significant change in the cyclone has occurred. The change or conditions that require the issuance of the special advisory normally are highlighted.

        c. Intermediate Advisories. These advisories function in the same manner as the public intermediate advisory (see section 4.7.1.c).

        d. Times of Issuance.

                (1) Scheduled Public Subtropical Cyclone Advisories. These advisories should be issued at the same scheduled times as public tropical cyclone advisories (see section 4.7.1.d).

                (2) Special Advisories. Special subtropical cyclone advisories should be issued whenever conditions require warnings to be issued or when other significant changes occur (see section 4.7.1.b).

*        (3) Intermediate Advisories. These advisories should be issued on a 2 or 3 hourly interval between scheduled advisories whenever a subtropical cyclone affects or is forecast to affect a coast. For clarity, whenever the NHC is issuing intermediates, a statement shall be included at the end of the scheduled public subtropical cyclone advisory, telling when the next intermediate advisory will be issued. (See example in section 4.7.1.d.3.)

4.8.2 Subtropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory. Subtropical cyclone advisories are issued for all subtropical cyclones within a Tropical Cyclone Center's area of responsibility. These subtropical advisories are issued in the same AFOS category (TCM) or WMO heading (WT__21-25) as that used for tropical cyclone forecast/advisories (see appendix A).

        a. Format and Content. The format and content shall be similar to that used with tropical cyclone forecast/advisories (see section 4.7.2.a). The advisory should be properly titled as "SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION/STORM FORECAST/ADVISORY." However, in the body of the message, subtropical depressions/storms should always be referred to as just "DEPRESSIONS/STORMS."

        b. Special Subtropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisories. These advisories shall be issued to update any abrupt or significant change that may have occurred with the subtropical cyclone. The format remains the same as the scheduled advisory that is being replaced.

        c. Intermediate Advisories. There are no intermediate advisories.

        d. Times of Issuance.

                (1) Scheduled Advisories. These should be issued at the same times as scheduled tropical cyclone forecast/advisories (see section 4.7.2.d).

                (2) Special Advisories. These should be issued each time a special subtropical cyclone public advisory is issued.

4.9 Naming and Numbering Tropical and Subtropical Cyclones.

4.9.1 Identifying Tropical and Subtropical Depressions by Number. The Tropical Cyclone Centers are responsible for numbering tropical and subtropical depressions in their areas of responsibility. Tropical depressions shall be numbered consecutively beginning each season with the spelled out number "ONE." In the Pacific, for ease in differentiation, tropical depression numbers assigned by NHC or CPHC shall include the suffix "E" or "C," respectively, after the number. This assigned identifier shall be retained even if the depression passes into another warning area. In both the Atlantic and Pacific, once the depression has reached tropical storm strength, it shall be named and the depression number dropped, not to be used again until the following year.

The numbering of subtropical cyclones shall follow the same procedure with the following exceptions:

o A separate consecutive numbering sequence beginning with "ONE" shall be used for subtropical depressions and continue in effect if the system strengthens into a tropical storm.

o If a subtropical cyclone becomes a tropical storm or a hurricane, it receives the next available name in the tropical naming sequence.

Examples of Mass News Disseminator Headers for Tropical Cyclones:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
TROPICAL STORM ADOLPH ADVISORY NUMBER 3
HURRICANE ADOLPH ADVISORY NUMBER 4
SUBTROPICAL STORM THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1

4.9.2 Naming Tropical Cyclones. Tropical cyclones shall be given a name in the first advisory (scheduled or special as appropriate) after it strengthens to above depression strength (i.e., 1-minute sustained surface winds exceed 33 knots [38 mph]). This name shall continue to be used for the tropical cyclone until the last advisory or storm summary is issued, even if the tropical storm/hurricane or typhoon reverts back to a depression.

Examples:

HURRICANE ADOLPH ADVISORY NUMBER 4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADOLPH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6

If a named tropical cyclone passes from the eastern Pacific into the central Pacific or vice versa, the name shall be retained. If a named tropical cyclone passes from the Atlantic Basin into the Pacific Basin or vice versa, the tropical cyclone shall be given a new name from the list of names for the new Basin.

4.9.3 Naming of Subtropical Cyclones. Subtropical storms shall be numbered consecutively beginning each season with the spelled out number "ONE." In the headers, the term "SUBTROPICAL" should be used. For example, the header of the third public advisory on the second subtropical storm would be "SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3." The header for the Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory would be "SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3."

4.10 Numbering Advisories and Tropical Cyclone Discussions. Tropical and subtropical cyclone advisories and discussions in the Atlantic and the Pacific shall be numbered in the same manner. Scheduled and special advisories and TCDs shall be numbered consecutively beginning with the number 1 (not spelled out) for each new tropical or subtropical cyclone and continue through the duration of the cyclone. When a tropical cyclone passes from the Atlantic Basin to the Pacific Basin or visa versa, it shall be renamed (or be given a new number if a depression) and a new advisory numbering sequence shall begin.

In situations where only Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisories and TCDs are being written (tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific not threatening land) and at a later time a public advisory is required, the public advisory number shall match that of the corresponding Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory.

In both the Atlantic and the Pacific, intermediate advisories and TCDs shall retain the advisory number of the scheduled or special advisory they update and an alphabetic designator shall be appended (i.e., "HURRICANE ALLISON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A").

4.11 Storm Summaries. Storm summaries (AFOS category SCCNS1-9) are written by HPC after subtropical and named tropical cyclones have moved inland and advisories have been discontinued. These summaries will be terminated when the threat of flash flooding has ended or when the remnants of these storms can no longer be distinguished from other synoptic features capable of producing flash floods. Storm summaries will not be issued for storms that enter the coast of Mexico that do not pose an immediate flash flood threat to the conterminous United States. Storm summaries will be initiated when and if flash flood watches are posted in the United States because of an approaching system. Storm summaries shall continue to be numbered in sequence with tropical cyclone advisories and will reference the former storm's name in the text. Summaries should be issued at 0500 and 1700 UTC, except the first in a series may be issued at a nonscheduled time.

The following examples illustrate portions of a final NHC advisory before passing to HPC and portions of HPC's first storm summary.

Examples:

MIATCPAT1
TTAA00 KNHC 021100

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
700 AM EDT MON AUG 2 1993

...BRET DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED AT 7 AM EDT...

...body of advisory not shown...

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET. THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON WILL BEGIN ISSUING STORM SUMMARIES FOR THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION AT NOON EDT. THE APPLICABLE AFOS HEADER FOR STORM SUMMARIES IS NFDSCCNS2 AND FOR WMO HEADERS IS WWUS37 KWBC.

RAPPAPORT

NFDSCCNS2
TTAA00 KWBC 021600

STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 16
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC
1200 PM EDT MON AUG 2 1993

...REMNANTS OF BRET OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

AT 12 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET...

...remainder of summary not shown...

4.12 Correction Procedures. If a correction needs to be issued for any Tropical Cyclone Center or NCEP product, the reason for the correction shall be listed immediately after the header of the corrected product.

*5. NWSFO/NWSO Issuances.

* 5.1 Hurricane/Typhoon Local Statements (HLS).

* 5.1.1 Times and Circumstances of Issuance. Unnumbered HLSs (AFOS category HLS) issued by NWSFOs and NWSOs are highly specific products designed to keep the media, local decision makers, and the public current on present and anticipated storm effects in their CWA and adjacent coastal waters. As such, they serve to complement and add local detail to advisory releases of the Tropical Cyclone Centers. HLSs shall not conflict with advisory releases. They also should not repeat information contained in the advisory that does not apply directly to the local office's CWA. HLSs should normally be issued by an office when its area of responsibility is affected by: (1) a tropical cyclone watch/warning, (2) evacuation orders, or (3) rumors that the local MIC feels should be countered by appropriate STATEMENTS. HLSs may also be issued by inland offices close to the coast if adverse conditions caused by the storm are either forecast or observed. NOTE: As noted in section 5.2, tornado, severe thunderstorm, and flash flood WARNINGS shall be issued independent of HLSs as stand-alone products under the appropriate AFOS category (i.e., TOR, SVR, FFW).

An HLS can take the place of severe weather, special weather, marine weather, coastal flood, and flash flood statements during storm situations. Specific examples of the storm's effects or expected effects on the local area should definitely be included in the HLS. NOTE: Either short hazard-specific statements or Short-Term Forecasts (NOWs) can be issued to highlight critical information between HLS issuances.

When, for any reason, warnings are not received from a Tropical Cyclone Center or are inadequate to cover current or imminent events, HLSs should include such local warnings as are necessary for the protection of life and property.

HLSs should be issued at regular and frequent intervals. When a tropical storm or hurricane is close to the coast, HLSs should be issued at 2 or 3 hourly intervals and more frequently if information and circumstances warrant. HLSs do not necessarily need to immediately follow the issuance of a new hurricane advisory. Issuing them midway between advisories maintains a steady flow of information to the media and the public. However, whenever a new advisory changes the potential impact on a local area, this information needs to be distributed in a new HLS as soon as possible. HLSs should use tropical cyclone position estimates between advisories when appropriate. To avoid discrepancies in public releases, HLSs should not be released immediately before an advisory unless information is coordinated with the appropriate Tropical Cyclone Center and--for watches or warnings--the valid initiation time is specified. HLSs may be discontinued once a tropical cyclone has moved inland, or, in the case of a tropical cyclone paralleling the coast, the office's CWA is behind the tropical cyclone and is no longer expected to be significantly impacted.

5.1.2 Format and Content. The HLS should be a stand-alone product containing essential tropical cyclone information in a condensed form but expanding on the potential effects to the CWA and on any actions as declared by local emergency managers. With the exception of the first HLS, routine preparedness information about storing water, filling vehicles with gas, etc., should be released in public information statements (AFOS category PNS).

The order of the contents of HLSs may vary, but the most important items should be first. Critical information should be contained in short, specific paragraphs structured in a manner to make it obvious what information is contained in each paragraph. This can be accomplished by either a lead sentence or specific topic headers set off by three dots. NOTE: The primary role of the HLS is to describe local conditions and the precautions that should be taken to reduce the storm's effects. The content of HLSs shall not in any way change any of the forecasts given in the latest advisory.

The first HLS is usually issued by an office following the supporting Tropical Cyclone Center's issuance of a tropical cyclone watch/warning affecting any portion of that office's CWA of responsibility. This first HLS should also contain standard, generic preparedness information (board windows, fill vehicles with fuel, etc.). The first HLS should also mention that additional information on the storm can be found in the supporting Center's TCP and TCM as well as PNSs and NOWs issued by the local office.

The essential contents of routine HLSs are the following:

        a. Concise lead sentence or headline.

        b. A sentence detailing which counties, parishes, or cities are included in the HLS.

        c. Watches and warnings in effect and counties or parishes to which they apply.

        d. Short-term precautionary actions and times they should be completed. This includes any evacuation recommendations contained in the advisory or stated by local authorities. Listing these actions is particularly important once a tropical cyclone watch or warning is announced.

        e. Storm surge and storm tide (storm surge plus astronomical tide) information, including times various heights are expected, present heights, and their locations. Storm surge information must agree with Tropical Cyclone Center forecasts as included in the advisories. Storm tide information should be included because local officials might not have access to tide tables. Storm tide forecasts should be referenced to appropriate datums understood by local authorities. For many portions of the coast, this would be mean sea level although some areas use mean lower low water instead.

        f. Present winds and expected time of onset of tropical storm/ hurricane/typhoon force winds. (The tropical cyclone forecast/advisory should be used as guidance.)

        g. Any required statements on potential tornado and flood/flash flood threats, rip currents, beach erosion, high wind warnings inland, etc.

        h. Information on probability of hurricane/typhoon/tropical storm conditions is optional.

        i. Time of next or final statement.

Routine HLSs may cease when the tropical cyclone is no longer a threat to an office's CWA.

All HLSs shall use a mass media standard text heading as illustrated in the following examples. Use the (Z) form of the Universal Generic Code.

Example of an HLS by an Office Expecting a Direct Hit from a Major Hurricane:

MIAHLSMIA
TTAA00 KMIA 232200
FLZ018>022-240100-

HURRICANE ANDREW LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
600 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ANDREW TAKING AIM ON SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF DADE... BROWARD...GLADES...HENDRY...AND COLLIER COUNTIES OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN PREPARATION FOR HURRICANE ANDREW. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND KEYS INCLUDING DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND COLLIER COUNTY.

OFFICIALS OF THE FEDERAL EXECUTIVE BOARD ADVISE THAT ALL FEDERAL EMPLOYEES WITHOUT EMERGENCY RESPONSIBILITIES ARE EXCUSED FROM REPORTING FOR WORK UNTIL THIS EMERGENCY IS OVER. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO AND TV FOR INSTRUCTIONS AS TO WHEN TO RETURN TO WORK.

HURRICANE ANDREW REMAINS EXTREMELY STRONG WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 150 MPH. AT 5 PM EDT ANDREW WAS CENTERED 240 MILES EAST OF MIAMI AND MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 16 MPH. AT PRESENT ANDREW IS COMPARABLE TO THE GREAT 1926 AND 1928 HURRICANES WHICH DEVASTATED SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA MUST TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY BEFORE NIGHTFALL. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS IN DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES HAVE ORDERED AN EMERGENCY EVACUATION OF AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING BY HURRICANE TIDES FROM A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. COLLIER...GLADES...AND HENDRY COUNTY OFFICIALS WILL BE ISSUING SPECIFIC INSTRUCTIONS AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN.

THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AS TIDAL STORM SURGES OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL SPREAD INLAND NEAR AND NORTH OF LANDFALL. TIDAL SURGE HEIGHTS MAY REACH 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN BISCAYNE BAY. THE FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL ROUTES IS IMMINENT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BEGIN POUNDING DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TOWARD DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS ANDREW MOVES INLAND AND LOSES SOME OF ITS INTENSITY. HIGH WINDS WILL SPREAD TO THE INTERIOR OF FLORIDA...IN SOME AREAS REACHING HURRICANE FORCE. HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE INLAND COUNTIES OF GLADES AND HENDRY.

MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS IN THESE COUNTIES AND THE COUNTIES OF DADE... COLLIER...AND BROWARD SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS IF ORDERED TO EVACUATE. MANY OF THE DEATHS IN HURRICANES OCCUR IN MOBILE HOMES.

A RECORDING OF THE LATEST ANDREW ADVISORY INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE BY CALLING...305-662-5702.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI FORECAST OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 9 PM EDT.

Example 2:

RDUHLSILM
TTAA00 KILM 242100
NCZ016-017-250330-

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE...LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
510 PM EDT THU SEP 24 1992

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...CARTERET...CRAVEN...PAMLICO...AND BEAUFORT.

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...

...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PERSONS LOCATED IN AND NEAR THE POSTED WARNING AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR HIGH WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING THAT SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WAS CENTERED NEAR 34.1 NORTH LATITUDE AND 74.0 WEST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH. DANIELLE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING WEST NORTHWEST. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1006 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH. AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT FORCING DANIELLE WEST NORTHWEST AND INCREASING ITS FORWARD SPEED TO NEAR 10 MPH.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WIND ALONG SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA WAS FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS IN THE PAMLICO SOUND WERE NEARING 40 MPH. THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE. THEY ARE THE RESULT OF THE TIGHT FLOW OF AIR BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND THE APPROACH OF DANIELLE.

...TIDE AND WATER LEVEL INFORMATION...
TIDE LEVELS ALONG OCEAN FRONT BEACHES OF NORTH CAROLINA ARE CURRENTLY 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAVY SURF ACTION. SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY. AS DANIELLE MAKES LANDFALL MORE SERIOUS FLOODING AND EROSION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM CARTERET COUNTY NORTH. TIDAL STORM SURGES ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.

TIMES OF HIGH TIDE... 630 PM THURSDAY
                                                700 AM FRIDAY
                                                715 PM FRIDAY

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVISES RESIDENTS IN THE AFFECTED AREA TO CONTINUE MONITORING RADIO/NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND TELEVISION ON THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRANT EARLIER RELEASES.

HINN

Example of an HLS from an Office on the Fringe of a Hurricane:

SATHLSHOU
TTAA00 KHOU 261130
TXZ046-047-049-261330-

HURRICANE ANDREW LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
630 AM CDT WED AUG 26 1992

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FROM PORT BOLIVAR TO HIGH
ISLAND...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM PORT BOLIVAR TO HIGH ISLAND...
...HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY FOR POLK AND LIBERTY COUNTIES...

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF TEXAS FROM PORT BOLIVAR TO HIGH ISLAND. AT 4 AM CDT HURRICANE ANDREW HAD MADE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST JUST EAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. ANDREW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE NEAR 115 MPH.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FROM PORT OCONNOR TO HIGH ISLAND. TIDAL SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ANDREW ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. LOW LYING AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR FLOODING. AT 5 AM CDT TIDES IN THE WATCH AREA WERE REPORTED TO BE AT NORMAL LEVELS.

HIGH WIND WARNINGS WERE POSTED FOR POLK AND LIBERTY COUNTIES. CURRENTLY WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTH AT LESS THAN 10 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RESIDENTS OF POLK AND LIBERTY COUNTIES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR INCREASING WINDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON OFFICE. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED UNDER SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...SATSPSHOU...AND COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS...SATCFSHOU.

Example of a Hazard-Specific Statement to Highlight Critical Information:

NEWHLSNEW
TTAA00 KNEW 250345
LAZ008-010-012>014-260600

HURRICANE ANDREW LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1045 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 1992

...TORNADOES TOUCHDOWN IN ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH...

ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH OFFICIALS CONFIRM THAT TORNADOES HAVE TOUCHED DOWN IN LA PLACE AND RESERVE BETWEEN 925 AND 935 PM CDT THIS EVENING. PRELIMINARY REPORTS INDICATE THAT FOUR PERSONS WERE TRAPPED IN MOBILE HOMES IN LA PLACE. FOUR HOMES WERE HEAVILY DAMAGED IN BELLE POINTE SUBDIVISION NEAR LA PLACE. THE RIVER PARISHES HOSPITAL IN LA PLACE WAS STRUCK...DAMAGED...BUT REMAINS OPEN.

THIS REMAINS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. AS ANDREW INTERACTS WITH THE COAST LINE...ADDITIONAL TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. THESE TORNADOES ARE SHORT LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO DETECT WITH RADAR. IF THREATENING WEATHER IS SIGHTED OR HEARD...GO TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

AS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE...FURTHER STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED.

KOZIARA

* 5.1.3 Relationship of HLSs to the NOW. Offices issuing NOWs should use the NOW in concert with HLSs and PNSs. The intent is for these products to complement each other and to ensure that critical information does not get buried in products of excessive length.

As stated in section 5.1.2, the HLS should be a stand-alone product complementing an NHC advisory, containing essential hurricane/tropical storm information in a condensed form but expanding on the potential effects to the CWA and on any actions as declared by local emergency managers. With the exception of the first HLS, routine preparedness information should be conveyed using public information statements (AFOS category PNS).

Short-term forecasts that contain information on the tropical cyclone should begin to be issued as soon as the tropical cyclone's effects move into the CWA. The NOW provides a forecast which is written in such a fashion as to heighten awareness and ensure proper near-term response actions. NOWs should be issued once an hour, if possible, and should include a forecast of expected conditions for the next 3 to 6 hours. The present NOW format allows the product to be segmented in such a way as to ensure the best distribution by the electronic media. The most significant information on the storm should be included in the first eight lines of each NOW segment. Further information on NOW formats and coding are included in OML 2-93 filed with WSOM Chapter C-21.

Example 1 - Single NOW:

BHMNOWMOB
TTAAOO KMOB 192130

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 PM CDT SAT AUG 19 1995

ALZ051>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-192330-

.NOW...
...HURRICANE GARY WILL MOVE ACROSS BALDWIN AND MOBILE COUNTIES BY 530 PM... SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE RAINBAND MOVES ACROSS. THE RAINBAND SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS CLARKE...WASHINGTON...AND GEORGE COUNTIES BY 6 PM. BUT PEOPLE IN THESE COUNTIES SHOULD EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

SCATTERED AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI THROUGH 6 PM. BANDS OF STRONG STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. EAST WINDS OF 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST WITH STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVIER RAINFALL NEAR THE RAINBANDS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.
$$

Example 2 - Single NOW, Multiple Areas:

SATNOWBRO
TTAA00 KBRO 220015

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
715 PM EDT THU SEP 21 1995

TXZ250-251-253>255-220200
BROOKS-KENEDY-HIDALGO-WILLACY-CAMERON

.NOW...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS KENEDY...WILLACY...AND CAMERON COUNTIES BY 815 PM... THESE STORMS MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF HURRICANE YOLANDA. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE BAND OF STORMS MAKES LANDFALL.
&&

SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH 9 PM. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
$$

TXZ248-249-252-220200-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-STARR

.NOW...
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING RAPIDLY ON SHORE AND WILL AFFECT EASTERN JIM HOGG AND STARR COUNTIES BY 9 PM. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THESE COUNTIES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID 70S.
$$

Example 3 - Multiple NOWs:

SATNOWBRO
TTAA00 KBRO 220015

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
715 PM EDT THU SEP 21 1995

TXZ250-251-253>255-220200-
BROOKS-KENEDY-HIDALGO-WILLACY-CAMERON

.NOW...
...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT HOUR... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ONSHORE RAPIDLY AND MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS KENEDY...WILLACY...AND CAMERON COUNTIES BY 815 PM. THESE STORMS MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF HURRICANE YOLANDA. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE BAND OF STORMS MAKES LANDFALL.
&&

SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH 9 PM. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
$$

SATNOWBRO
TTAA00 KBRO 220025

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
725 PM EDT THU SEP 21 1995

TXZ248-249-252-220200-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-STARR

.NOW...
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING RAPIDLY ON SHORE AND WILL AFFECT EASTERN JIM HOGG AND STARR COUNTIES BY 9 PM. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THESE COUNTIES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE MID 70S.
$$

Example of a Single NOW with multiple areas:

BOSNOWBOS
TTAA00 KBOS 191653

SHORT-TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/TAUNTON MA
100 PM EDT MON AUG 19 1991

RIALL-501-502-MAZ020>024-503-504-192000-
RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND ADJACENT WATERS

.NOW...
...HURRICANE WARNING FOR MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND COASTS... STORM SURGES OF 4 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH FACING COASTS OF RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS BY 2 PM. SURGES AS HIGH AS 15 TO 17 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN BUZZARDS BAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COAST BY 2 PM. BY 1 PM...WINDS WERE ALREADY 61 MPH AT FALL RIVER. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED BY 3 PM...CAUSING FLASH FLOODING. FALL RIVER AND CRANSTON ALREADY HAVE RECEIVED 3 INCHES OF RAIN AT 1 PM.
&&

THE EYE OF HURRICANE BOB WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE BY 2 PM BETWEEN NEWPORT RI AND NEW BEDFORD MA. OTHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT INCLUDE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING...INLAND HIGH WIND WARNING FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND TORNADO WATCH.
$$

MAZ005>007-013>019-501-502-192000-
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND ADJACENT WATERS

.NOW...
...HURRICANE WARNING FOR MASSACHUSETTS COAST...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY 3 PM. AT 1 PM WINDS WERE ALREADY 30 TO 50 MPH IN MOST AREAS. BOSTON HAD A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH AT 1 PM. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED BY 3 PM...CAUSING FLASH FLOODING IN MANY AREAS. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN IN MOST AREAS BY 1 PM. TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAUSING SOME COASTAL FLOODING.
&&

OTHER WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT INCLUDE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING...INLAND HIGH WIND WARNING FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND A TORNADO WATCH.
$$

Customers should look to the NOW for short-term critical information on the effects of tropical cyclones. They are also shorter than HLSs and are issued more frequently than HLSs to highlight short-term critical information that may be used in support of rapid response planning.

* 5.1.4 Optional Use of Special Weather Statements for Probability of Tropical Cyclone Conditions. Special weather statements may be used to briefly explain tropical cyclone probabilities prior to the time HLSs are required. The statement should refer to the probability in the totals column instead of describing probabilities for various time periods. The probability for your area should be included along with an explanation on how that probability compares to the surrounding coastal sections. If these statements are used, they are needed only four times a day following the issuance of probabilities in the 0300, 0900, 1500, 2100 UTC hurricane or tropical storm advisories, or following the issuance of special advisories.

Example:

BHMSPSPNS
TTAA00 KBHM 261400
FLZ001>004-261600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENSACOLA FL
1000 AM EDT THU AUG 26 1992

...HURRICANE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...

HURRICANE OPHELIA...NOW 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS...IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AT 5 MILES AN HOUR. THE PROBABILITY OF OPHELIA STRIKING PENSACOLA HAS INCREASED TO 12 PERCENT. THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND THE ALABAMA COAST HAVE PROBABILITIES IN THE 10 TO 12 PERCENT RANGE WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR THE REST OF THE GULF COAST. ACCORDINGLY...THE PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THAT GREATEST ATTENTION SHOULD BE FOCUSED ON THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND ALABAMA COASTS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR OUR AREA. KEEP TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON OPHELIA.

5.1.5 Optional Use of Probabilities on NOAA Weather Radio. Probabilities may be used on NOAA Weather Radio referring to the totals column. Keep the statements simple (similar to the examples on special weather statements), including probability statements for your area and surrounding areas.

5.2 Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm, and Flash Flood Warnings. Warnings should be issued whenever conditions warrant. See WSOM Chapters C-40, Severe Local Storm Warnings, and E-20, Flood/Flash Flood Watch and Warning Program, for details concerning the issuance of these warnings.

* 5.3 Inland High Wind Watches and Warnings for Hurricane Force Winds. WSOM Chapter C-44, Non-Precipitation Weather Hazards, provides guidance on the issuance of high wind watches and warnings. When a tropical cyclone is expected to remain at hurricane strength well inland, then inland high wind watches and warnings for hurricane force winds should be issued rather than the more generic high wind watches and warnings to call greater attention to the threat.

* 5.3.1 Inland High Wind Watches for Hurricane Force Winds. NWSFOs should issue an inland high wind watch for hurricane force winds when hurricane force or greater winds are anticipated beyond coastal areas though the actual occurrence, timing and location are still uncertain. Wind fields from the Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory of NHC should be used as guidance in the preparation of the watch. Inland sections of coastal counties may be placed under Inland High Wind Watches for Hurricane Force Winds versus using tropical cyclone watches when the effects of the tropical cyclone can be clearly described to the public and other users and will not lead to confusion. Coordination shall occur with the office's affected NWSOs, surrounding NWSFOs, and NHC before issuance.

Inland high wind watches for hurricane force winds should not be issued for more than the second period of the forecast with the 24-hour forecast position as guidance. Extreme care should be used when defining the area to ensure that the forecast uncertainty is properly accounted for.

Watches should be issued via the NPW AFOS category and subsequently highlighted in the appropriate forecasts and statements. Use the (Z) form of the UGC as described in WSOM Chapter C-63. The MND header should be "INLAND HIGH WIND WATCH FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS" as shown in the following example.

Example:

CAENPWCAE
TTAA00 KCAE 151430
SCZ001>050-162200-

INLAND HIGH WIND WATCH FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1030 AM EDT WED JUL 15 1995

...AN INLAND HIGH WIND WATCH FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CAROLINA FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

HURRICANE JENNIFER IS HEADED FOR SOUTH CAROLINA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT JENNIFER COULD MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN 4 AM AND 8 AM ON THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. JENNIFER IS A STRONG HURRICANE AND IS EXPECTED TO RETAIN WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WELL INLAND AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TOWARD WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

IF JENNIFER CONTINUES AT ITS PRESENT STRENGTH, SUSTAINED WINDS OF OVER 110 MPH COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BEFORE DAWN THURSDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 TO 90 MPH SPREADING INLAND AS FAR AS COLUMBIA BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT JENNIFER COULD STILL CONTAIN HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR JENNIFER TO SPREAD WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. IF THIS OCCURS, BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME OR A HOME THAT AFFORDS LITTLE PROTECTION FROM FLYING GLASS AND DEBRIS...DEVELOP OPTIONS FOR ALTERNATIVE SHELTER NOW.

PASCH

* 5.3.2 Inland High Wind Warnings for Hurricane Force Winds. NWSFOs and NWSOs should issue an inland high wind warning for hurricane force winds when hurricane force winds are expected to occur beyond coastal areas and outside of the traditional hurricane warning areas. Wind fields from the Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory of NHC should be used as guidance in the preparation of the warning. Inland sections of coastal counties may be placed under Inland High Wind Warnings for Hurricane Force Winds versus using tropical cyclone warnings when the effects of the tropical cyclone can be clearly described to the public and other users and will not lead to confusion. Coordination shall occur with surrounding local offices, and NHC prior to issuance.

Inland High wind warnings for hurricane force winds should not be issued for more than the first period of the forecast with the 12-hour forecast position as guidance. Extreme care should be used when defining the area to ensure that the forecast uncertainty is properly accounted for.

Warnings should be issued via the NPW AFOS category and subsequently highlighted in the appropriate forecasts and statements. Use the (Z) form of the UGC as described in WSOM Chapter C-63. The MND header should be "INLAND HIGH WIND WARNING FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS" as shown in the following example.

Example:

SATNPWSAT
TTAA00 KASAT 101030
TXZ177-178-198>200-212>215-226-227-236>238-102200-

INLAND HIGH WIND WARNING FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANTONIO TX
600 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 1995

...INLAND HIGH WIND WARNING FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...

AN INLAND HIGH WIND WARNING FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MATAGORDA TO NAVASOTA TO HUNTSVILLE TO PORT ARTHUR LINE.

HURRICANE FRED LOCATED 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TX AT 6 AM CDT IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND NOON CDT ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FRED IS THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A NORTH NORTHWEST COURSE MOVING ACROSS HOUSTON AND REACHING THE SAN JACINTO NATIONAL FORREST SOUTH OF LAKE LIVINGSTON BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SUSTAINED WINDS OF OVER 130 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 160 MPH SHOULD BEGIN SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE MORNING. WINDS OF 100 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 130 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE HOUSTON AND KINGWOOD AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF FRED, 60 TO 80 MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS FAR NORTH AS HUNTSVILLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FLYING DEBRIS WILL POSE A MAJOR THREAT TO ALL STRUCTURES IN THE WARNED AREA ESPECIALLY IN THE GLASS HIGH RISES OF DOWNTOWN HOUSTON. PERSONS SHOULD GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM AWAY FROM WINDOWS. PERSONS LIVING IN MOBILE HOMES AND THOSE CONCERNED ABOUT THEIR HOME'S ABILITY TO WITHSTAND STRONG WINDS SHOULD MOVE TO ALTERNATIVE STRUCTURES IMMEDIATELY. INDIVIDUALS LIVING IN THE DENSELY WOODED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR NUMEROUS DOWNINGS OF TREES AND SHOULD TAKE SHELTER IN SMALL INTERIOR ROOMS OR REINFORCED STRUCTURES.

* 5.3.3 Use of Short-Term Forecasts and Statements Once the Effects of the Storm Are Felt on Land. Local offices that issue Short-Term Forecasts (NOW) should use the NOW to provide detailed information on the short-term effects of the wind fields and extreme winds in the storm. Short-Term Forecasts should be issued as often as practical or as needed, the NOW not only provides users with vital information but supports the Inland High Wind Warning for Hurricane Force Winds by providing the resolution that cannot be accommodated in the NPW. Focus should be placed on convective elements in the eye wall and in the rain bands where extreme winds can occur.

5.3.4 Inland High Wind Watches and Warnings for Subtropical and Extratropical Storms. When a subtropical/extratropical storm is expected to spread hurricane/typhoon force winds well inland, NWSFOs should issue Inland High Wind Watches and Warnings for Hurricane Force Winds rather than the more generic High Wind Watch and Warning to better call attention to the situation. Guidelines for High Wind Watches and Warnings for subtropical storms and their relationship to other products, and responsibilities of NWSFOs/NWSOs are the same as for Inland High Wind Watches and Warnings for Hurricane Force Winds.

5.4 Warning Information in Public and Marine Forecasts. Public and marine forecasts should be written to stand by themselves as statements of expected weather conditions. The first item in the text should be a statement of watches and warnings in effect, plus small craft advisories as required. Forecasts should contain information on conditions, such as winds, waves, or tides, when considered to be of importance even though this information is also given in the advisory. Specific mention of the tropical cyclone should be made when the forecast contains reference to significant weather, e.g., heavy rain or strong winds, in connection with the tropical cyclone. If the Tropical Cyclone Center has not issued tropical storm warnings for the coast but tropical storm force winds are occurring or expected over open water, the phrase "SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT BEYOND NEAR SHORE WATERS" shall be included in the coastal marine forecast.

Similarly, offshore forecasts shall headline hurricane or tropical storm warnings for the affected area, derived from the Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory, even though warnings have not been issued for the coast. See WSOM Chapter D-51, Marine Services for Coastal, Offshore, and High Seas. In most cases, it would be advisable to include a statement that all concerned should listen for the latest advisory. As with HLSs to avoid discrepancies, public and marine forecasts should not be released immediately before an advisory unless information is coordinated with the appropriate Tropical Cyclone Center and, for watches and warnings, the valid initiation time is specified.

a. State Forecast (AFOS category SFP).

RDUSFPNC
TTAA00 KRDU 182000
NCZALL-190800-

STATE FORECAST FOR NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH/DURHAM NC
410 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 1991

...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COAST AND SOUNDS...
...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS
INCLUDING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS...

.TONIGHT...WINDS INCREASING TO HURRICANE FORCE OVER COASTAL AREAS-BY MIDNIGHT AS HURRICANE BOB SKIRTS THE OUTER BANKS. DANGEROUS STORM SURGE CAUSING SERIOUS BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER BANKS AROUND MIDNIGHT AT THE TIME OF HIGHEST TIDE. TORRENTIAL RAINS AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARD DAYBREAK. REMAINDER OF THE STATE...CLOUDY AND WINDY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SHOWERS WEST. LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST. HIGHS IN THE 80S.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS IN THE 80S EXCEPT 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.FRIDAY...HOT AND HUMID. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS IN THE 70S EXCEPT LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

        b. Coastal and Offshore Forecasts (AFOS categories CWF and OFF, respectively).

WBCCWFWBC
TTAA00 KWBC 161630

COASTAL MARINE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC
1230 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 1989

CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC AND ATLANTIC COAST FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO AND INCLUDING VIRGINIA BEACH OUT 20 NAUTICAL MILES.

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE MARA CENTERED ABOUT 50 NM SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AT 9 AM EDT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE AT 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. SEE LATEST ADVISORY ON MARA.

MDZ502-162230-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF THE POTOMAC RIVER
1230 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 1989

NORTH OF BALTIMORE HARBOR
BALTIMORE HARBOR TO PATUXENT RIVER
TIDAL POTOMAC

.THIS AFTERNOON...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN AND A FEW TSTMS WITH VSBY 3 NM OR LESS.
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
$$

MDZ503-162230-
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF THE POTOMAC RIVER
1230 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 1989

PATUXENT RIVER TO S OF WINDMILL POINT
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

.THIS AFTERNOON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. RAIN AND A FEW TSTMS WITH VSBY 3 NM OR LESS.
.SUN...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.

MDZ501-162230-
CAPE HENLOPEN TO VIRGINIA BEACH OUT 20 NM
1230 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 1989

CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND OUT 20 NM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CHINCOTEAGUE OUT 20 NM
CHINCOTEAGUE TO CAPE CHARLES OUT 20 NM

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

.THIS AFTERNOON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS WITH VSBY LESS THAN 2 NM.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN AND TSTMS WITH VSBY LESS THAN 3 NM. TIDES 2 FT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVEL. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT.
.SUN...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.

CAPE CHARLES TO VIRGINIA BEACH OUT 20 NM

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...

.THIS AFTERNOON...NE WINDS INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT. SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM. TIDES 3 FT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVEL. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT.

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 60 KT DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING LATE TONIGHT. SQUALLS AND TSTMS WITH VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM. TIDES 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVEL.
.SUN...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
$$

MDZ599-162130-
OUTLOOK CAPE HENLOPEN TO VIRGINIA BEACH OUT 20 NM
1230 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 1989

.MON THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE OR STRONGER WINDS NOT EXPECTED.
$$

NEWOFFNEW
TTAA00 KNEW 121530

OFFSHORE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1030 AM CDT SUN AUG 12 1993

GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND 50 NM FROM SHORE.

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA 24N 95W AT 10 AM CDT MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT TURNING MORE NORTHERLY ON MONDAY. SEE LATEST ADVISORY ON OPHELIA.

NORTHWEST GULF NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 90W.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KTS NEAR CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT 100 NM FROM THE CENTER. SEAS 18 FT.

.THIS AFTERNOON...OVER WESTERN HALF NORTHEAST WINDS 45 KTS. SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. VISIBILITY 1 MILE IN HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLS. OVER EASTERN HALF SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 35 KTS. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 MILES IN SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.

.TONIGHT AND MONDAY...OVER WESTERN HALF EAST WINDS 55 KTS. SEAS 20 FT. VISIBILITY 1 MILE IN HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLS. OVER EAST HALF SOUTHEAST WINDS 35 KTS. SEAS 15 FT. VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 MILES IN SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.

..........rest of text not shown..........

5.4.1 Warning Information in Zone Forecast. Tropical cyclone watch/ warnings should be restricted to areas near the coast. For inland areas where sustained winds of 40 mph or greater or gusts to 58 mph or higher are expected, high wind warnings should be issued (AFOS category NPW). High wind warnings shall not be used for coastal zones during tropical situations. More information on high wind warning procedures can be found in WSOM Chapter C-44.

Example: (Text of a forecast for an inland zone)

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY...
.TODAY...NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AS HURRICANE JACKSON APPROACHES THE COAST. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
.TONIGHT...RAIN TAPERING OFF AND NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 30 MPH. LOWS NEAR 60. PROBABILITY OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS NEAR 60. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

* 5.5 Correction Procedures. If, during a tropical situation, a NWSFO/NWSO product needs to be corrected, the reason for the correction shall be listed immediately after the header of the corrected product.

* 6. Coordination of Advisories and Other Forecasts and Statements.

* 6.1 Tropical Cyclone Forecasts and Advisories.

* 6.1.1 Atlantic. NHC and HPC should exchange forecast positions for tropical cyclones. HPC should prepare and exchange forecast positions four times each day (0200, 0800, 1400, 2000 UTC) for all tropical cyclones with an initial position west of 65° and north of 20° . These should include informal positions for use by HPC on graphic charts through 48 hours, including tropical depressions. Systems that are unnamed but forecast to attain tropical storm or hurricane/typhoon strength during the forecast period should have their progged positions labeled as a tropical cyclone or T.C. Forecast positions should be for 12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 hours based on the latest 6 hourly synoptic time. For the extended forecast charts (day 3, 4 and 5), the appropriate tropical cyclone symbol will be used on the day 3 chart, but the storm will be depicted as a low for days 4 and 5. For storms outside this area, HPC should be prepared to discuss general synoptic situations, model outputs, and projected storm tracks twice daily at 1400 and 0200 UTC. Specific exchange of forecast positions should not be required. NHC should provide HPC with regular 3 hourly map-time positions to be used in the HPC surface analysis (0000, 0300, 0600 UTC, etc.).

NHC and HPC should also reach agreements on plans for issuing and discontinuing watches and warnings, storm surge, and other storm parameters. HPC's NPPU should always be involved in coordination calls whenever NHC plans to include QPF amounts (usually 24-hour forecasts or less) for the United States mainland in tropical cyclone advisories (see section 6.4). Final coordination calls should be made 1 hour before advisory time.

NHC should involve all affected regional offices, NWSFOs, and NWSOs in the coordination call with HPC on the Hurricane Coordination Hotline (HCH). To help alleviate the timing problem for NWSFOs/NWSOs not on the HCH, NHC should make every effort to coordinate with these offices 1 hour earlier than advisory time if watches or warnings are to be issued or canceled.

NHC should also coordinate with the offshore and high seas forecast offices (MPC, TAFB, NWSFO Miami, and NWSFO New Orleans) via the HCH when the tropical cyclone is forecast to affect any part of their marine forecast areas. When tropical cyclones threaten the west coast of the United States, NHC should discuss precipitation amounts with NPPU.

It is the responsibility of the NWSFOs on the HCH to ensure that all coastal offices that may be threatened by a tropical cyclone receive NHC's latest coordinated forecast points immediately following the coordination calls. NWS offices on the hotline should ensure the privacy of conference calls to avoid disclosure of preliminary information.

* 6.1.2 Pacific. CPHC is encouraged to coordinate advisories with HPC by telephone whenever a discussion of the implications of the computer model forecasts could be helpful. When tropical cyclones threaten Hawaii or other important land areas in the Pacific, CPHC should discuss precipitation amounts with NPPU.

Coordination by the most practical and expeditious means between NHC and CPHC should take place whenever a tropical cyclone is between 137° and 143° west longitude. In the event of a disagreement, the Center issuing the next advisory shall make the final decision.

6.2 Other Advisories. Coordination on the downgrading of tropical and subtropical cyclones moving inland should be between NHC and HPC as appropriate. The initial storm summary should be coordinated with HPC and NHC. HPC should coordinate subsequent summaries with the appropriate RFC and the appropriate critical flood support office(s) regarding flooding threats and with NHC if there is a reasonable possibility that advisories may again be needed. This coordination should take place not more than 90 minutes before summary release time.

6.3 Hurricane/Typhoon Local Statements. Local offices are encouraged to consult with their supporting Tropical Cyclone Center or their parent NWSFO whenever they feel the need for assistance in formulating their local forecasts or statements. For consistency in statements, local offices should coordinate with adjacent offices.

6.4 Flooding. Flood or flash flood watches should be issued by NWSFOs for tropical cyclone situations (see WSOM Chapter E-20, Flood/Flash Flood Watch and Warning Program). Offices should be careful in distinguishing between the very rapid rise of water associated with the storm surge and other types of flooding resulting from heavy rains (i.e., flash flooding and river flooding). Tropical Cyclone Centers should include in their advisories appropriate information about flooding. RFCs, and NWSFOs should call the appropriate Tropical Cyclone Center to discuss the flooding potential. The appropriate Tropical Cyclone Center should, of course, initiate calls if necessary. Such calls should be placed well in advance of advisory issuance times. WSOs, NWSFOs, NWSOs and RFCs should coordinate as appropriate. The office issuing advisories should also coordinate the heavy rain situation with NPPU. NPPU products and the statements in advisories should be in reasonable agreement. In addition, the NESDIS SAB shall provide satellite estimates of rainfall to NWS offices via AFOS.

6.5 Tornadoes. SPC shall issue tornado watches, if required, for areas affected by tropical and subtropical cyclones (regardless of intensity) after coordinating with NHC. Tropical Cyclone Centers should include appropriate information about tornadoes in their advisories and may include the phrase "TORNADO WATCH" if SPC has issued one. NWSFO San Juan and Agana Guam shall cover any tornadoes or water spouts expected in their area of responsibility in HLSs and warnings.

6.6 Military Services. The NWS is the basic source of tropical cyclone forecasts for all Department of Defense interests in the North Pacific, east of 180° and for the North Atlantic as provided by interdepartmental agreements in the NHOP. In the event that military interests in the Atlantic area wish to discuss special problems concerning the warnings and forecasts, they should contact the Director, NHC, or a designated alternate, by telephone. In the Pacific, the Director, NHC, or the Director, CPHC, or their designated alternates, shall provide similar services to the military. These procedures are described more fully in the NHOP.

6.7 Coastal Marine Warnings. The Center issuing an advisory should coordinate with the affected coastal forecast office(s) before issuing any watch or warning. Marine warnings issued for other than the direct effects of tropical or subtropical cyclone circulations are the responsibility of the coastal NWSFO. Any questions concerning the extent of tropical or subtropical cyclone circulations should be resolved by coordination between the Tropical Cyclone Center and the affected coastal NWSFOs. High wind situations not directly caused by the tropical or subtropical circulation will be covered by gale or storm warnings issued by the coastal NWSFO.

For example, if a cool, dry high pressure area over the mid-Atlantic states and a hurricane east of Florida were combining to produce high winds and low humidities along the South Carolina coast, gale or storm warnings should be issued by NWSFO Columbia. The low humidities would be an indication that the high winds were not the direct result of the hurricane.

* 7. Backup of Tropical Cyclone Centers. In the event of operational failure of a Tropical Cyclone Center, responsibilities shall be transferred to the appropriate alternate facility in accordance with existing directives and retained there until resumption of responsibility is made. (See WSOM Chapter J-03, Backup Operations and Site Evacuations; and NHOP for details.)

Primary and backup facilities are as follows:

PRIMARY             BACKUP FACILITY

NHC                     HPC/TDL
CPHC                     NHC
TAFB                     MPC/SAB/SPC
JTWC                     NAVPACMETOCCEN

The HPC is responsible for backup operations of NHC in the unlikely event that NHC loses operating capabilities. The NHC, which is collocated with TAFB, has warning service responsibility for the Atlantic and for the eastern Pacific Ocean, north of the equator and east of 140° west longitude. Backup to NHC would require backup to TAFB. Backup support to TAFB operations requires the assistance of the MPC, SPC, SAB, and CPHC. If for any reason NHC transfers operations to HPC and NHC is not able to return to full operations within 12 to 24 hours of transfer, at least two NHC hurricane specialists should immediately be flown to HPC to assist in backup operations. Additionally, one or two forecasters should immediately be flown to MPC/SAB and SPC to assist in TAFB backup operations. In addition, when working in the emergency backup mode, the Techniques Development Laboratory, Marine Techniques Branch at WSH, will assume responsibility for running the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes Model (SLOSH) for HPC and to assist in the interpretation.

In the case of CPHC backup, TPC will assume all central Pacific tropical cyclone responsibilities, including marine and satellite services through TAFB.

Proper preparation necessitates a comprehensive training program. This should include preparing the entire staff for the TAFB, tropical cyclone forecast functions, and other supplemental products as well as understanding the communication responsibilities associated with the issuance of tropical cyclone watches and warnings. The maintenance of a successful backup program requires periodic testing of the plan. It is recommended that as a minimum the various National Center backup contingency plans be exercised annually.

 


APPENDIX A

TROPICAL CYCLONE ASSESSMENT AND WARNING PRODUCTS

AREA
WMO
AFOS
 
Caribbean
CA
#
 
North Atlantic and Caribbean
NT
AT
 
East Pacific
PZ
EP
 
Central Pacific
PA
CP
 
West Pacific
PW
WP
 
North Pacific
PN
#
 
South Pacific
PS
#
 
Indian Ocean
IO
#
 
South Indian Ocean
XS
#
 
       
PRODUCT TITLES
WMO HEADER
AFOS HEADER
NWWS BACKUP HEADERS
       
Tropical Weather Outlook
     
(Atlantic Basin)
ABNT20 KNHC
MIATWOAT
NFDTWOAT
(Eastern Pacific)
ABPZ20 KNHC
MIATWOEP
NFDTWOEP
(Central Pacific)
ABPA20 PHNL
HNLTWOCP
MIATWOCP
(San Juan)
SJUTWOSJU
MIATWOSPN
 
       
Tropical Weather Discussion
     
(Atlantic Basin)
AXNT20 KNHC
MIATWDAT
NFDTWDAT
(Eastern Pacific)
AXPZ20 KNHC
MIATWDEP
NFDTWDEP
       
Tropical/Subtropical Cyclone
     
Public Advisory
     
       
(Atlantic Basin)
WTNT31-35 KNHC
MIATCPAT1-5
NFDTCPAT1-5
(Eastern Pacific)
WTPZ31-35 KNHC
MIATCPEP1-5
NFDTCPEP1-5
(Central Pacific)
WTPA31- 35 PHNL
HNLTCPCP1-5
MIATCPCP1-5
(Western Pacific)
WTPQ31-35 PGUM
   
       
Tropical/Subtropical Strike Probability Forecast
     
       
(Atlantic Basin Only)
WTNT71-75 KNHC
MIASPFAT1-5
NFDSPFAT1-5
       
Tropical/Subtropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory
     
       
(Atlantic Basin)
WTNT21-25 KNHC
MIATCMAT1-5
NFDTCMAT1-5
(Eastern Pacific)
WTPZ21-25 KNHC
MIATCMAP1-5
NFDTCMEP1-5
(Central Pacific)
WTPA21-25 PHNL
HNLTCMCP1-5
MIATCMCP1-5
(Western Pacific)
 
NMCTCMWP1-5 NMCTCPWP1-5
 
       
# indicates product currently not redistributed through AFOS.
     
       
APPENDIX B
     
       
PRODUCT TITLES
WMO HEADER
AFOS HEADER
NWWS BACKUP HEADERS
       
Tropical Cyclone Discussion
WTNT41-45 KNHC
MIATCDAT1-5
NFDTCDAT1-5
 
WTPZ41-45 KNHC
MIATCDEP1-5
NFDTCDEP1-5
 
WTPA41-45 PHNL
HNLTCDCP1-5
MIATCDCP1-5
       
Prognostic Reasoning of Warnings for NW Pacific
WDPN31-36 PGTW
N/A
N/A
       
Tropical Cyclone Position Estimate
     
(Atlantic Basin)
WTNT51 KNHC
MIATCEAT
NFDTCEAT
(Eastern Pacific)
WTPZ51 KNHC
MIATCEEP
NFDTCEEP
(Central Pacific)
WTPA51 PHNL
HNLTCECP
MIATCECP
       
Tropical Cyclone Position and Intensity from Satellite Data
     
       
(NW Pacific)
TPPN10 PGTW
N/A
N/A
(SW Pacific)
TPPS10 PGTW
N/A
N/A
(S Pacific East of 160E)
TYPS10 PHNL
N/A
N/A
(N Indian Ocean)
TP1010 PGTW
N/A
N/A
(S Indian Ocean)
TPXS10 PGTW
N/A
N/A
       
Tropical Cyclone Formation Message
     
       
(Issued by JTWC Guam)
WTPS31-36 PGTW
N/A
N/A
(Issued by Navy at Pearl Harbor)
WTPS21-25 PHNC
N/A
N/A
       
Tropical Cyclone Update
     
       
(Atlantic Basin)
WTNT61 KNHC
MIATCUAT
NFDTCUAT
(Eastern Pacific)
WTPZ61 KNHC
MIATCUEP
NFDTCUEP
(Central Pacific)
NTPA61 PHNL
HNLTCUCP
MIATCUCP
       
Tropical Cyclone Warnings
     
       
(Northwest Pacific)
WTPN31-36 PGTW
NMCTCPWP1-5
N/A
(Southwest Pacific)
WTPS21-35 PGTW
N/A
N/A
(North Indian Ocean)
WTIO31-35 PGTW
N/A
N/A
(South Indian Ocean)
WTXS31-36 PGTW
N/A
N/A
       
Special Tropical Disturbance Statement
     
       
(Atlantic Basin)
WONT41 KNHC
MIADSAAT
NFDDSAAT
(Eastern Pacific)
WOPZ41 KNHC
MIADSAEP
NFDDSAEP
(Central Pacific)
WOPA41 PHNL
HNLDSACP
MIADSACP
(Western Pacific)
ABPW10 PGTW
N/A
N/A
(Indian Ocean)
ABIO10 PGTW
N/A
N/A
       
N/A indicates currently none assigned.
     
       
PRODUCT TITLES
WMO HEADER
AFOS HEADER
NWWS BACKUP HEADERS
       
Tropical Weather Summary
     
       
(Atlantic Basin)
ABNT30 KNHC
MIATWSAT
NFDTWSAT
(Eastern Pacific)
ABPZ30 KNHC
MIATWSEP
NFDTWSEP
(Central Pacific)
ABPA30 PHNL
HNLTWSCP
MIATWSCP
       
Satellite Interpretation Message
     
       
(Central Pacific)
TBHW20 PHNL
HNLSIMHI
N/A
       
Satellite Tropical Disturbance Summary
     
       
(Atlantic Night IR Image)
TCNT11 KNHC
MIASTDAIR
N/A
(Atlantic Day Vis/IR Image)
TCNT10 KNHC
MIASTDAVI
N/A
(East Pacific Night IR Image)
N/A
MIASTDEIR
N/A
(East Pacific Day Vis/IR Image)
N/A
MIASTDEVI
N/A
       
Satellite Tropical Discussion
     
       
(Western North and South Pacific Visual)
TCPW10 PHNL
HNLTWDPW0
N/A
(Western North and South Pacific IR)
TCPW11 PHNL
HNLTWDPW1
N/A
(Night IR Image Central North and South Pacific)
TCPA11 PHNL
HNLTWDPA1
N/A
(Vis/IR Image Central North and South Pacific)
TCPA10 PHNL
HNLTWDPA0
N/A
       
Satellite-Derived Rainfall
     
       
(Eastern Caribbean)
TCCA22 KNHC
MIASTDCCA
N/A
(Central Caribbean)
TCCA21 KNHC
MIASTDECA
N/A
(Western Caribbean)
TCCA23 KNHC
MIASTDWCA
N/A
       
High Seas Forecast
     
       
(North Atlantic)
FZNT01 KWBC
NFDHSFAT1
NFDHSFAT1
(South Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean)
FZNT01 KWBC
MIAHSFAT2
MIAHSFAT2
(East Pacific [north])
FZPN01 KWBC
NFDHSFEP1
NFDHSFEP1
(East Pacific [south])
FZPN02 KWBC
MIAHSFEPI
MIAHSFEPI
(East Pacific)
FZPN03 KNHC
MIAHSFEP2
MIAHSFEP2
(East Pacific)
FZPN04 KNHC
MIAHSFEP3
MIAHSFEP3
(North Central Pacific)
FZPN10 PHNL
HNLHSFCP1
N/A
(South Central Pacific)
PXPS10 PHNL
HNLHSFCP2
N/A
       
Storm Summary
     
U.S.) Conterminous)
WWUS37 KWBC
NFDSCCNS1-5
NFDSCCNFD
       
Aircraft Reconnaissance Messages
     
Routine Reconnaissance Report
     
       
(Atlantic)
URNT10 KNHC
MIAREPNTO
N/A
(Tropical Cyclone Report)
URNT11 KNHC
MIAREPNT1
N/A
(Dropsonde Report)
UZNT13 KNHC
MIAREPNT3
N/A
(High Level Report [Atlantic])
UZNT14 KNHC
MIAREPNT4
N/A
(High Level Report [Pacific])
UZPA14 KNHC
MIAREPPA4
N/A
(Backup Trop. Cyc. Rpt [Atlantic])
URNT11 KBIX
MIAREPNT1
N/A
(Backup Trop. Cyc. Rpt [Atlantic])
URNT13 KBIX
MIAREPNT3
N/A
(Backup Trop. Cyc. Rpt [Pacific])
URPA11 PGTW
MIAREPPA1
N/A
       
Tropical Cyclone Report
     
       
(Pacific)
URPN11 KNHC
MIAREPPN1
N/A
(Summer/Winter Reconnaissance
NOUS42 KNHC
MIAREPRPD
N/A
POD [Atlantic/Pacific])
UZPN13 KNHC
MIAREPPN3
N/A
 
URPN12 KNHC
MIAREPPN2
N/A
 
URNT12 KNHC
MIAREPNT2
N/A
 
URPA10 PGTW
MIAREPPAO
N/A
 
URPA11 PGTW
MIAREPPA1
N/A
 
URPA12 PGUA
MIAREPPA2
N/A
 
UZPA13 PGUA
MIAREPPA3
N/A
 
URPN10 KNHC
MIAREPPNO
N/A
       
Hurricane Local Statement
     
       
(Atlantic)
WWUS31 KCCC
CCCHLSNNN
N/A
       

__________________

N/A indicates currently none assigned.

OFFICIAL DEFINING POINTS

FOR TROPICL CYCLONE WATCHES/WARNINGS

La Pesca, MX

Rio San Fernando, MX

Brownsville, TX

Brownsville, TX

Port Mansfield, TX

Baffin Bay, TX

Corpus Christi, TX

Baffin Bay, TX

Corpus Christi, TX

Port Aransas, TX

Port O'Connor, TX*

Houston, TX

Port O'Connor, TX*

Matagorda, TX*

Sargent, TX

Freeport, TX

San Luis Pass, TX

High Island, TX

Lake Charles, LA

High Island, TX

Sabine Pass, TX

Cameron, LA

Intracoastal City, LA

Morgan City, LA*

New Orleans, LA

Morgan City, LA*

Grand Isle, LA

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA

Mouth of the Pearl River, LA

Pascagoula, MS

Mobile, AL

Pascagoula, MS

Pensacola, FL

Fort Walton Beach, FL

Destin, FL

Tallahassee, FL

Destin, FL

Panama City, FL

Apalachicola, FL

Ochlockonee River, FL

St. Marks, FL

Aucilla River, FL

Steinhatchee River, FL

Suwannee River, FL

Tampa Bay, FL

Suwanee River, FL

Cedar Key, FL

Yankeetown, FL

Bayport, FL

Anclote Key, FL

Longboast Key, Fl

Venice, FL

Boca Grande, FL

Fort Myers Beach, FL

Bonita Beach, FL

Miami, FL

Bonita Beach, FL

Everglades City, FL

East Cape Sable, FL*

Flamingo, FL

Dry Tortugas

Seven Mile Bridge, FL

Craig Key, FL

Angelfish Key, FL*

Key Largo, FL

Florida City, FL

Golden Beach, FL

Hallandale, FL

Deerfield Beach, FL*

Boynton Beach, FL

Lake Worth, FL

Jupiter Inlet, FL

Melbourne, FL

Jupiter Inlet, FL

Stuart, FL

Fort Pierce, FL

Vero Beach, FL

Sebastain Inlet, FL

Cocoa Beach, FL

Titusville, FL

New Smyrna Beach, FL

Flagler Beach, FL

Jacksonville, FL

Flagler Beach, FL

St. Augustine, FL

Fernandina Beach, FL

Brunswick (Altamaha Sound), GA

Charleston. SC

Brunswick (Altamaha Sound), GA

Savannah, GA

Edisto Beach, SC

Cape Romain, SC

Wilmington, NC

Cape Romain, NC

Murrells Inlet, SC

Little River Inlet, SC

Cape Fear, NC

Surf City, NC

Morehead City, NC

Surf City, NC

New River Inlet, NC

Bogue Inlet, NC

Cape Lookout, NC

Ocracoke Inlet, NC

Cape Hatteras, NC

Oregon Inlet, NC

(The inclusion of Pamlico and

Albemarle Sounds should be on a

case-by-case basis).

Currituck Beach Light

Wakefield, VA

Currituck Beach Light

NC/VA State Line

Cape Charles Light, VA

Chincoteague, VA

Fenwick Island, DE

Suggested teminology for Chesapeake Bay:

Below Windmill Point.

Tidal Potomac Below Patuxent River.

Including Patuxent River.

Wakefield has responsibility for

Chesapeake Bay south of the VA/MD

border, which extends from Smith Pt. To Pocomoke Sound.

Sterling has responsibility north of that line.

 

Mt. Holly, NJ

Fenwick Island, DE

Cape Henlopen, DE

Cape May, NJ

Great Egg Inlet, NJ

Little Egg Inlet, NJ

Manasquan Inlet, NJ

(The inclusion of Delaware Bay

Should be on a case-by-case basis).

Sandy Hook, NJ

New York City, NY

Sandy Hook, NJ

Fire Island Inlet, LI, NY

Moriches Inlet, LI, NY

Montauk Point, LI, NY*

Port Jefferson Harbor, LI, NY

New Haven, CT

Watch Hill, RI

Boston, MA

Watch Hill, RI

Point Judith, RI

Woods Hole, MA

Chatham, MA*

Plymouth, MA

Gloucester, MA

Merrimack River, MA

Portland, ME

Merrimack River, MA

Portsmouth, NH

Portland, ME

Rockland, ME

Bar Harbor, ME

Eastport, ME

* Breakpoints between marine

forecast and warning zones

 

 

APPENDIX C

ESTIMATED HURRICANE EVACUATION

CLEARANCE TIMES

NOTE: All evacuation times for Texas should be used for general guidance purposes only.

ST
COUNTY
CAT 1
CAT 2
CAT 3
CAT 4
CAT 5
DATE
TX
Cameron
6
6
11
13
13
5/92
TX
Willacy
6
6
11
13
13
5/92
TX
Kenedy
<1
<1
<1
1-2
1-2
5/92
TX
Kleberg (Inland)
1
1
1
6
6
8/89
TX
Kleberg (N. Padre Island)
12
12
12
12
12
8/89
TX
Nueces (Western)
---
---
---
4
4
8/89
TX
Corpus Christi Metro Area)
16
16
16
22
22
8/89
TX
(Mustang & North Padre Island)
12
12
12
12
12
8/89
TX
Aransas
11
11
11
13
13
8/89
TX
SaN Patricio
7
7
7
10
10
8/89
TX
Refugio
1
1
1
2
2
8/89
TX
Calhoun
---
---
---
6
6
6/91
TX
Victoria
---
---
---
6
6
6/91
TX
Jackson
---
---
---
2
2
6/91
TX
Matagorda
---
---
---
6
6
6/91
TX
Brazoria
---
---
---
16
16
6/91
TX
Galveston
---
---
30
30
30
6/91
TX
Harris
---
---
---
26
26
6/81
TX
Chambers
---
---
---
4
4
6/81
TX
Jefferson
---
---
---
24
24
9/83
TX
Orange
---
---
---
24
24
9/83
TX
Hardin
---
---
---
24
24
9/83
TX
Jasper
---
---
---
24
24
9/83
TX
Newton
---
---
---
24
24
9/83
LA
St Charles
5-10
5-10
27-30
31-33
35-38
5/92
LA
St John the Baptist
5-10
5-10
27-30
31-33
35-38
5/92
LA
St James
5-10
5-10
27-30
31-33
35-38
5/92
LA
Orleans (Off Peak)
5-10
14-16
24-31
37-39
42-44
5/92
LA
Orleans (Peak)
6-12
15-23
26-38
40-45
45-50
5/92
LA
Jefferson (Off Peak)
5-10
14-16
24-31
37-39
42-44
5/92
LA
Jefferson (Peak)
6-12
15-23
26-38
40-45
45-50
5/92
LA
Plaquemine (Off Peak)
5-10
14-16
24-31
37-39
42-44
5/92
LA
Plaquemine (Peak)
6-12
15-23
26-38
40-45
45-50
5/92
LA
St Bernard (Off Peak)
5-10
14-16
24-31
37-39
42-44
5/92
LA
St Bernard (Peak)
6-12
15-23
26-38
40-45
45-50
5/92
LA
St Tammany (Off Peak)
5-10
14-16
24-31
37-39
42-44
5/92
LA
St Tammany (Peak)
6-12
15-23
26-38
40-45
45-50
5/92
LA
LaFourche
6-9
11-12
11-12
13-14
13-14
5/92
MS
Hancock
6-9
6-9
9-11
9-11
9-11
1/87
MS
Harrison
8-10
8-10
11-13
14-16
14-16
1/87
MS
Jackson
8-10
8-10
11-13
14-16
14-16
1/87
AL
Mobile
13-16
13-16
15-18
15-18
15-18
9/91
AL
Baldwin
12-16
12-16
16-20
16-20
16-20
9/91
FL
Escambia
13-17
13-17
16-19
16-19
16-19
6/86
FL
Santa Rosa
7-11
7-11
8-13
8-13
8-13
6/8
FL
Okaloosa
13-17
13-17
15-19
15-19
15-19
6/86
FL
Walton
7-13
7-13
8-15
8-15
8-15
6/86
FL
Bay
22-30
22-30
26-34
26-34
26-34
6/86
FL
Gulf
11-21
11-21
12-24
12-24
12-24
1/92
FL
Franklin
11-24
11-24
13-30
13-30
13-30
1/92
FL
Wakulla
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
1/92
FL
Jefferson
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
1/92
FL
Leon (Inland)
5-11
5-11
7-11
7-11
7-11
1/92
FL
Gadsen (Inland)
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
1/92
FL
Liberty (Inland)
5-11
5-11
5-11
7-11
7-11
1/92
FL
Calhoun (Inland)
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
1/92
FL
Jackson (Inland)
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
5-11
1/92
FL
Taylor
---
---
---
---
---
---
FL
Dixie
---
---
---
---
---
---
FL
Levy
14-20
14-20
15-41
16-42
17-43
11/89
FL
Citrus
13-23
14-23
17-42
18-43
19-43
11/89
FL
Hernando
14-27
14-28
18-44
17-43
19-45
11/89
FL
Pasco
11-16
11-16
19
19
19
11/92
FL
Pinellas
13-16
13-16
18-24
18-24
18-24
11/92
FL
Hillsboro
13-16
13-16
18-22
18-22
18-22
11/92
FL
Manatee
14
14
14-18
14-18
14-18
11/92
FL
Sarasota
6-9
6-9
8-10
10-13
10-13
11/91
FL
Charlotte
7-13
7-19
11-31
11-31
11-31
11/91
FL
Lee
9-13
18-27
23-31
23-31
23-31
11/91
FL
Collier
12
10-17
13-20
14-20
14-20
11/91
FL
Monroe (Middle and Upper Keys
11-17
11-17
19-27
19-27
19-27
6/91
FL
Monroe (Lower and Middle Keys)
11-17
11-17
21-30
21-30
21-30
6/91
FL
Monroe (All Keys)
17-25
17-25
29-38
29-38
29-38
6/91
FL
Dade
28-33
46-52
46-52
71-81
71-81
9/92
FL
Broward
21
21
26
26
26
11/90
FL
Palm Beach
16
16
16
16
16
1/93
FL
Martin
7-11
7-11
9-17
9-17
9-17
7/92
FL
St. Lucie
8
8
14
14
14-20
1/93
FL
Indian River
12
12
12
12
12
1/93
FL
Brevard
8-12
8-12
8-12
8-12
8-12
11/90
FL
Volusia
5-10
5-10
9-17
9-17
9-17
11/89
FL
Putnam
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
12/84
FL
Flagler
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
---
FL
St. Johns
4-10
4-10
15-17
15-17
15-17
12/84
FL
Duval
7-10
7-10
15-17
15-17
15-17
12/84
FL
Nassau
5-10
5-10
5-10
5-10
5-10
12/84
GA
Chatham
(6)
6 (6)
7 1/4 (61/2)
23 3/4
23 3/4
1988
GA
Liberty
6 1/4
6 1/4
6 1/4
6 1/4
6 1/4
1988
GA
Bryan
6 1/4
6 1/4

(6)

7 1/4

(61/2)

24

(18 1/4)

24

(18 1/4)

1988
GA
Camden
6
6
6
12 1/4
12 1/4
1988
GA
McIntosh
6
6
6
6
6
1988
GA
Glynn
9

(8 3/4)

9

(8 3/4)

11

(10 1/2)

12 1/2

(11 3/4)

12

(11 3/4)

1988
NC
Brunswick
6-10
6-10
6-10
6-10
6-10
11/86
NC
New Hanover
6-9
6-9
6-9
6-9
6-9
11/86
NC
Pender
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
11/86
NC
Craven
7-10
7-10
7-10
8-10
8-10
11/86
NC
Carteret
8-12
8-12
9-12
10-13
10-13
11/86
NC
Pamlico
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
11/86
NC
Onslow
9-12
9-12
9-12
9-13
9-13
11/86
NC
Washington
8-12
8-12
8-12
10-14
10-14
11/86
NC
Bertie
8-14
8-14
11-17
11-17
11-17
11/86
NC
Martin
10-14
10-14
12-16
12-16
12-16
11/86
NC
Beaufort
7-10
7-10
7-10
8-11
8-11
11/86
NC
Perquimans
5-9
5-9
7-11
7-11
7-11
11/86
NC
Chowan
5-10
5-10
8-12
8-12
8-12
11/86
NC
Currituck
5-11
5-11
5-11
6-13
6-13
11/86
NC
Camden
5-11
5-11
7-13
7-13
7-13
11/86
NC
Pasquotank
5-10
5-10
6-11
6-11
6-11
11/86
NC
Hyde (Mainland)
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
11/86
NC
Hyde (Ocracoke Island)
13-27
13-27
13-27
13-27
13-27
11/86
NC
Tyrrell
6-10
6-10
6-10
8-11
8-11
11/86
NC
Dare
6-12
6-12
6-12
7-13
7-13
11/86
SC
Jasper
7-9
7-9
11-12
11-12
11-12
 
SC
Beaufort
5-12
5-15
6-18
12-19
12-19
 
SC
Colleton
5-9
5-9
11-12
11-12
11-12
 
SC
Charleston
6-9
10-13
16-18
20-23
20-23
 
SC
Georgetown
5-10
5-10
6-10
10-14
10-14
 
SC
Horry
11-14
11-14
13-17
16-20
16-20
 
VA
City of Virginia Beach, Norfolk, and Hampton (Category 5 not modelled)
10-25
10-25
16-27
19-27
N/A
3/92
VA
City of Portsmouth
3-9
3-9
3-9
5-9
N/A
3/92
VA
City of Newport News
10-14
10-14
20-24
20-24
N/A
3/92
VA
City of Chesapeake
3-9
5-9
5-9
9-11
N/A
3/92
VA
City of Suffolk
4-10
6-13
6-13
7-16
N/A
3/92
VA
City of Poquoson
3-9
5-9
5-9
5-9
N/A
3/92
               
 
VIRGINIA COUNTIES (Category five not modelled)
           
VA
Northhampton
7-11
7-11
7-11
7-11
N/A
3/92
VA
Accomack
7-11
7-11
8-12
8-12
N/A
3/92
VA
York
10-13
10-13
17-21
17-21
N/A
3/92
VA
Gloucester
4-9
4-9
7-14
7-14
N/A
3/92
VA
Matthews
2-9
2-9
2-9
2-9
N/A
3/92
VA
Middlesex
2-9
2-9
2-9
2-9
N/A
3/92
VA
Lancaster
1-9
1-9
1-9
1-9
N/A
3/92
VA
Richmond
1-9
1-9
1-9
1-9
N/A
3/92
VA
Northumberland
1-9
1-9
1-9
1-9
N/A
3/92
VA
Westmoreland
1-9
1-9
1-9
1-9
N/A
3/92
               
 
MARYLAND Category five not modelled)
           
MD
Worchester
4-15
4-15
4-23
4-23
N/A
3/92
MD
Anne Arundel
9-23
9-23
10-25
10-25
N/A
3/92
MD
Caroline
13-20
13-20
13-20
13-20
N/A
3/92
MD
Dorchester
6-22
8-25
8-25
8-25
N/A
3/92
MD
Kent
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
MD
Queen Anne's
12-33
12-33
15-38
15-38
N/A
3/92
MD
St. Mary's
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
MD
Somerset
7-13
11-15
11-15
12-15
N/A
3/92
MD
Talbot
10-38
14-45
14-45
14-45
N/A
3/92
MD
Wicomico
8-33
11-37
11-37
11-37
N/A
3/92
               
 
DELAWARE (Category five not modelled)
           
DE
Sussex
10-38
10-38
11-45
11-45
N/A
3/92
DE
Kent
10-24
10-24
11-25
11-25
N/A
3/92
DE
New Castle
11-25
11-25
12-26
12-26
N/A
3/92
               
 
NEW JERSEY (Category five not modelled)
           
NJ
Cape May
7-31
7-31
10-36
10-36
N/A
3/92
NJ
Atlantic
9-24
9-24
11-26
11-26
N/A
3/92
NJ
Ocean
7-13
7-13
7-19
7-19
N/A
3/92
NJ
Monmouth
6-10
6-10
7-10
7-10
N/A
3/92
NJ
Cumberland
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
NJ
Salem
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
NJ
Gloucester
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
NJ
Camden
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
NJ
Burlington
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
NJ
Middlesex
4-9
4-9
5-9
5-9
N/A
3/92
NJ
Union
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
NJ
Essex
4-9
4-10
4-10
4-10
N/A
3/92
NJ
Hudson
4-9
6-11
6-11
6-11
N/A
3/92
NJ
Bergen
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
               
 
NEW YORK (Category five not modelled)
           
NY
Suffolk
7-14
7-14
12-18
12-18
N/A
3/92
NY
Fire Island
6-11
6-11
6-11
6-11
N/A
3/92
NY
Nassau
11-18
11-18
14-21
14-21
N/A
3/92
NY
Queens
7-12
7-12
11-16
11-16
N/A
3/92
NY
Manhatten
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
NY
Kings
5-10
6-11
10-15
12-17
N/A
3/92
NY
Richmond
4-9
4-9
7-12
7-12
N/A
3/92
NY
Bronx
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
NY
Westchester
4-9
4-9
4-9
4-9
N/A
3/92
               
 
Puerto Rico (Northern, Eastern, and Southern)
---
---
8-12
8-12
8-12
1/89
 
U.S. Virgin Islands (St. Thomas, St. John, and St Croix)
---
---
8-12
8-12
8-12
1/89

Evacuation time estimates are presently not available for any counties in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, or Maine.

ESTIMATED HURRICANE EVACUATION CLEARANCE TIMES

 

 

APPENDIX D TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGRAM (C-41)

GEOGRAPHICAL DEFINING POINTS AND PHONETIC PRONUNCIATIONS

       
Abaco
AB-a-KO
Grenada
gre-NAY-dah
Anguilla
ang-GWIL-a
Guadaloupe
GWAH-deh-loop
Antigua
an-TEE-gua
Guatemala
gwaht-eh-MAH-la
Aruba
ah-ROO-ba
Leeward
LEE-werd
Antilles
an-TILL-leez
Maracaibo
mar-a-KYE-boh
Azores
uh-ZOHRZ
Maracay
mah-rah-KYE
Bahamas
ba-HAHM-ahs
Marigot
ma-ree-GOH
Barbados
bar-BAY-dohz
Mayaguez
may-yah-GWAYS
Barbuda
bar-BOO-dah
Merida
MAY-re-thah
Barranquilla
Bahr-rahn-KEE-yah
Miami
mye-AM-ee
Barahona
ba-ra-HO-na
Montego
mon-TEE-go
Basse-Terre
baha-TER
Montserrat
mont-se-RAT
Bermuda
ber-MYOO-da
Nicaragua
nik-a-RAH-gwah
Biloxi
bi-LUX-ee
Ocho Rios
OH-cho REE-os
Bimini
BIM-i-ni
Oranjestad
o-RAHN-yuh-stat
Bonaire
ba-NAIR
Paramaribo
par-a-MAR-i-boh
Cap Haitien
kahp ah-ee-SYAN
Parguera
par-GWER-a
Caracas
kah-RAH-kahs
Pointe-a-Pitre
pwan-ta-PEE-tr
Caribbean
kar-a-BE-an
Ponee
PON-sa
Castries
KAS-tree
Port-au-Prince
port-oh-PRINS
Cayman
kay-MAHN
Saba
SAH-ba
Charlotte Amalie

a-MAHL-ye
Sao Miguel
(the Azores)
soun ME-gel
Cozumel
koh-soo-MEL
St Croix
ST croy
Curacao
koor-a-SOH
St Lucia
ST LOO-she-a
Dominica
dom-i-NEE-ka
Soufriere
soo-free-AR
Eleuthera
el-OO-thera
Surinam
SOOR-i-nam
Exuma
ek-SOO-ma
Tampico
tam-PEE-ko
Flores
FLO-rish
Tela
TAY-lah
Fort de France
for-de-FRAHCS
Tobago
to-BAY-go
   
Yucatan
yoo-ka-TAN

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES AND PRONUNCIATION GUIDES

ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES

1998 1999 2000

ALEX
 
ARLENE
 
ALBERTO
al-BAIR-toe
BONNIE
 
BRET
 
BERYL
BER-ril
CHARLEY
 
CINDY
 
CHRIS
 
DANIELLE
dan-YELL
DENNIS
 
DEBBY
 
EARL
 
EMILY
 
ERNESTO
er-NES-toe
FRANCES
 
FLOYD
 
FLORENCE
 
GEORGES
ZHORZH
GERT
 
GORDON
 
HERMINE
her-MEEN
HARVEY
 
HELENE
he-LEEN
IVAN
eye-van
IRENE
 
ISAAC
EYE-zak
JEANNE
JEEN
JOSE
ho-ZAY
JOYCE
 
KARL
 
KATRINA
 
KEITH
 
LISA
LEE-sa
ka-TREE-na
 
LESLIE
 
MITCH
 
LENNY
 
MICHAEL
MIKE-el
NICOLE
ni-COLE
MARIA
 
NADINE
nay-DEEN
OTTO
 
ma-REE-ah
 
OSCAR
 
PAULA
 
NATE
 
PATTY
 
RICHARD
RICH-erd
OPHELIA
 
RAFAEL
ra-fa-EL
SHARY
SHA-ree
o-FEEL-ya
 
SANDY
 
TOMAS
to-MAS
PHILIPPE
fe-leep
TONY
 
VIRGINIE
 
RITA
 
VALERIE
 
vir-JIN-ee
 
STAN
 
WILLIAM
 
WALTER
 
TAMMY
     
   
VINCE
     
   
WILMA
     
           
2001
         
ALLISON
 
TANYA
TAHN-ya
   
BARRY
 
VAN
     
CHANTAL
shan-TAHL
WENDY
     
DEAN
         
ERIN
AIR-in
       
FELIX
FEEL-ix
       
GABRIELLE
ga-bree-EL
       
HUMBERTO
oom-BAIR-to
       
IRIS
EYE-ris
       
JERRY
         
KAREN
         
LUIS
loo-EES
       
MARILYN
         
NOEL
         
OPAL
         
PABLO
PA-blow
       
ROXANNE
rocks-ANN
       
SEBASTIEN
say-BAS-tyan
       

TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES AND PRONUNCIATION GUIDES

ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES

(Continued)

2002 2003

ARTHUR
 
ANA
 
BERTHA
BUR-tha
BILL
 
CRISTOBAL
 
CLAUDETTE
claw-DET
DOLLY
 
DANNY
 
EDOUARD
eh-DWARD
ERIKA
ERR-ree-ka
FAY
 
FABIAN
FAY-bee-in
GUSTAV
 
GRACE
 
HANNA
 
HENRI
ahn-REE
ISIDORE
IS-i-door
ISABEL
IS-a-bell
JOSEPHINE
JO-ze-feen
JUAN
WAN
KYLE
 
KATE
 
LILI
 
LARRY
 
MARCO
 
MINDY
 
NANA
 
NICHOLAS
NIK-o-las
OMAR
 
ODETTE
o-DET
PALOMA
pa-LOW-ma
PETER
 
RENE
re-NAY
ROSE
 
SALLY
 
SAM
 
TEDDY
 
TERESA
te-REE-sa
VICKY
 
VICTOR
VIC-ter
WILFRED
 
WANDA
 

If over 21 name tropical cyclones occur in a year, the Greek alphabet will be used following the "W" name.

TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES AND PRONUNCIATION GUIDES
EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES

        1998                                                 1999                                             2000

Agatha
 
Adrian
 
Aletta
a LET ah
Blas
 
Beatriz
BEE a triz
Bud
 
Celia
 
Calvin
 
Carlotta
 
Darby
 
Dora
 
Daniel
 
Estelle
 
Eugene
 
Emilia
ee MILL ya
Frank
 
Fernanda
fer NAN dah
Fabio
FAH bee o
Georgette
 
Greg
 
Gilma
GIL mah
Howard
 
Hilary
 
Hector
 
Isis
EYE sis
Irwin
 
Ileana
ill ay AH nah
Javier
ha VEEAIR
Jova
Ho vah
John
 
Kay
 
Kenneth
 
Kristy
 
Lester
 
Lidia
 
Lane
 
Madeline
 
Max
 
Miriam
 
Newton
 
Norma
 
Norman
 
Orlene
or LEAN
Otis
 
Olivia
 
Paine
 
Pilar
 
Paul
 
Roslyn
 
Ramon
rah MONE
Rosa
 
Seymour
 
Selma
 
Sergio
SIR gee oh
Tina
 
Todd
 
Tara
 
Virgil
 
Veronica
 
Vicente
vee CEN tay
Winifred
 
Wiley
 
Willa
 
Xavier
ZAY vier
Xina
ZEE nah
Xavier
ZAY vier
Yolanda
yo LAHN da
York
 
Yolanda
yo LAHN da
Zeke
 
Zelta
ZEL dah
Zeke
 
           
2001
         
Adolph
 
Tico
TEE koh
   
Barbara
 
Velma
     
Cosme
COS may
Wallis
     
Dalila
 
Xina
ZEE nah
   
Erick
 
York
     
Flossie
 
Zelda
ZEL dah
   
Gil
         
Henriette
Hen ree ETT
       
Ismael
ees mah EL
       
Juliette
         
Kiko
KEE ko
       
Lorena
low RAY na
       
Manuel
mahn WELL
       
Narda
         
Octave
AHK tave
       
Priscilla
         
Raymond
         
Sonia
SONE yah
       

 

 

TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES AND PRONUNCIATION GUIDES
(Continued)

EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMES

   2002                                        2003

Alma
AL mah
Andres
ahn DRASE
Boris
 
Blanca
BLAHN kah
Cristina
 
Carlos
 
Douglas
 
Dolores
 
Elida
ELL ee dah
Enrique
anh REE kay
Fausto
FOW sto
Felicia
fa LEE sha
Genevieve
 
Guillermo
gee YER mo
(gee as in geese)
Hernan
her NAHN
   
Iselle
ee SELL
Hilda
 
Julio
HOO lee o
Ignacio
eeg NAH cio
Kenna
 
Jimena
he MAY na
Lowell
 
Kevin
 
Marie
 
Linda
 
Norbert
 
Marty
 
Odile
oh DEAL
Nora*
 
Polo
 
Olaf
OH lahf
Rachel
 
Pauline*
 
Simon
 
Rick*
 
Trudy
 
Sandra
 
Vance
 
Terry
 
Winnie
 
Vivian
 
Xavier
ZAY vier
Waldo
 
Yolanda
yo LAHN da
Xina
ZEE nah
Zeke
 
York
 
   
Zelda
ZEL dah

* in a name list indicates the name is subject to change pending RA-IV Hurricane committee action