4. Effect on Other Instructions
This chapter supersedes WSOM Issuance 98-03, June 30, 1998 and 97-3, May 23, 1997 in their entirety.

John J. Kelly, Jr.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGRAM

* 2. Organizational Responsibilities.

2.1 Weather Service Headquarters (WSH). Overall responsibility for National Weather Service tropical cyclone service rests with the Assistant Administrator for Weather Services. Staff assistance is provided by the Director, Office of Meteorology, with the Chief, Integrated Hydrometeorological Services, Service Division, serving as principal advisor.

2.2 Regional Headquarters (RH). RH shall ensure all offices are prepared for the hurricane/typhoon season. This involves: (1) a review of policies on overtime and emergency staffing; (2) a review of pertinent manual instructions; (3) conducting tropical cyclone operations drills (WSOM Chapter A-17, Emergency Drills); and (4) updating the Station Duty Manual (WSOM Chapter A-13, Station Duty Manual). Other RH duties include:

a. Development of Disaster Preparedness. See WSOM Chapter C-49, Warning Coordination and Hazard Awareness Program.

b. Providing Special Reports on Significant Weather-Related Events. See WSOM Chapter J-02, Special Reports on Weather Related and Other Major Events.

c. Surveying Major Damage Areas. See WSOM Chapter J-06, Natural Disaster Surveys.

d. Ensuring a Preliminary Report on Effects of Tropical Cyclones is prepared. RH shall ensure all NWS local offices affected by a tropical storm, hurricane/typhoon, or their remnants promptly relay all pertinent information requested to the responsible Tropical Cyclone Center, WSH, and other appropriate offices.

e. As appropriate, detailing temporary staff to offices most likely to be impacted by the tropical cyclone.

f. Conducting regional-level briefings with other agencies regarding the tropical cyclone's current status and potential impact.

2.3 Tropical Cyclone Prediction Centers. The tropical cyclone warning service is an interdepartmental effort providing the United States and designated recipients with warnings, forecasts, and assessments, concerning tropical and subtropical weather systems. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), through the NWS, provides these services for the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and eastern and central Pacific Oceans. The Department of Defense (DOD) Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) provides similar services for the western Pacific and Indian Oceans.

2.3.1 Tropical Prediction Center (TPC). TPC, under the Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has overall responsibility for hurricane warning services for the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific Ocean north of the equator and east of 140 west longitude. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is the unit within the TPC responsible for operational hurricane forecasts and is, therefore, referred to throughout this chapter. NHC has final authority for all meteorological decisions concerning forecasting of tropical and subtropical systems in these areas and:

a. serves as the official source for all hurricane information for the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans and issues all public advisories and tropical cyclone forecasts/advisories for the Atlantic and eastern Pacific.

b. determines NWS requirements for tropical cyclone aircraft reconnaissance. All requests for military reconnaissance of tropical or subtropical cyclones will be made by the Director, NHC, or his/her designee. Procedures for requesting reconnaissance are found in the NHOP.

c. makes the decision to run the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model for any tropical or subtropical storm in the Atlantic, or eastern Pacific. NHC shall forward its requests to the NCEP Central Operations Senior Duty Meteorologist (SDM), and the SDM then executes the job run. The Forecast Operations Branch of Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) determines when to run the GFDL model for inland storms in which the primary threat is flash flooding.

d. provides backup operations to CPHC as detailed in the NCEP Backup Hurricane Operations Plan.

2.3.2 Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC). The CPHC, under the Director, Pacific Region, is responsible for tropical and subtropical cyclone warnings and forecasts for the Pacific Ocean north of the equator from 140 to 180 west longitude. CPHC has final authority for all meteorological decisions concerning the forecasting of tropical and subtropical systems in this area and:

* a. serves as the official source of all hurricane information for the central Pacific Ocean and issues all public advisories and tropical cyclone forecasts/advisories for the central Pacific;

* b. through the Director, NHC, or his/her designee, requests military reconnaissance of tropical or subtropical cyclones in area of responsibility;

* c. makes requests for running the GFDL hurricane model to the SDM in coordination with NHC;

2.3.3 Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The tropical cyclone program west of 180 supporting U.S. Government interests in the western North Pacific Ocean is the responsibility of JTWC. The NWS Office in Tiyan, Guam, provides tropical cyclone public advisories for Micronesia and the Mariana Islands using the JTWC forecast/Advisory information as guidance.

2.4 National and Local Office Responsibilities

2.4.1 Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC). HPC has sole responsibility for forecasting tropical depressions once they have moved inland over the U.S., and near term (within the next one to two days) redevelopment is not expected. HPC is responsible for issuing numbered storm summaries on subtropical or named tropical cyclones that have moved inland over the conterminous U.S. for which advisories are no longer required but the threat of flood-producing rainfall continues. When HPC's National Precipitation Prediction Unit (NPPU) expects rainfall of 4 inches or more from a tropical cyclone, the NPPU shall telephone NHC, CPHC, and affected RFCs, and NWS local offices unless quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) has already been made available on the regional distribution circuits, and facsimile circuits. NPPU provides specialized QPF to River Forecast Centers (RFC) and critical flood support to offices during flood threat periods. NPPU shall give NHC and CPHC its QPFs for inclusion in advisories for storms expected to affect the United States. HPC is responsible for issuing numbered storm summaries on subtropical or named tropical cyclones that have moved inland over the conterminous United States for which advisories are no longer required but a threat of flood-producing rainfall continues. NCEP Central Operations (NCO) runs all appropriate models and HPC provides backup operations for NHC.

2.4.2 Storm Prediction Center (SPC). SPC issues severe thunderstorm and tornado watches as required for CONUS areas affected by tropical and subtropical cyclones (regardless of intensity) after coordinating with NHC and all affected local NWS offices.

2.4.3 National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS). NESDIS, through its Synoptic Analysis Branch (SAB), shall be responsible for advising HPC and Tropical Cyclone Centers of the characteristics of tropical cyclone areas observed by satellite. SAB is also responsible for issuing satellite precipitation estimates (product SPENES) for all tropical cyclones or decayed tropical cyclones that have moved over land in the contiguous U.S.

2.4.4 River Forecast Centers and Other Offices with Hydrologic Responsibilities. Part E of the WSOM provides detailed instructions concerning an office's hydrologic responsibilities.

2.4.5 NEXRAD Weather Forecast Offices. NWS local offices are responsible for maintaining consistency among all products they issue and the latest advisories issued by NHC, CPHC or HPC. Local NWS offices will notify the appropriate supporting Tropical Cyclone Center whenever they observe any new development of possible interest to the Center, i.e., spiral bands, detection of the eye, significant changes in movement or intensity, etc.

2.4.6 Weather Service Offices (WSO). WSO Hilo and Lihue Hawaii are the only WSOs having warning responsibilities.

3. Tropical Cyclone Center and HPC Products.

Non-Advisory Products	Advisory Products
	Tropical	Sub-Tropical
Satellite Interpretation Message Tropical Weather Discussion Tropical Weather Outlook Tropical Weather Summary Special Tropical Disturbance Statement Storm Summary	Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories Special Public Advisories Intermediate Public Advisories Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisories Special Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory Tropical Cyclone Discussion Tropical Cyclone Updates Tropical Cyclone Position Estimates Strike Probabilities of Tropical Cyclone Conditions	Subtropical Cyclone Public Advisories Special Subtropical Cyclone Advisories Intermediate Subtropical Advisories Subtropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisories Special Subtropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisories

NOTE:(Refer to Appendix "D" for tropical cyclone product examples)

3.1 Tropical Cyclone Center and HPC non-forecast Issuances.

3.1.1 Satellite Interpretation Message (SIM). These products are issued four times a day by CPHC for the Central North Pacific, with updates as required to describe synoptic features and significant weather areas.

3.1.2 Tropical Weather Discussion (TWD). These products shall be issued four times a day by the Tropical Analysis Forecast Branch (TAFB) and twice a day by the CPHC to describe significant synoptic weather features and significant weather areas in the tropics. One TAFB message will cover the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the Atlantic between the equator and 32 north latitude. A second TAFB message will be prepared for the eastern Pacific between the equator and 32 north and east of 140 west. One CPHC message will be prepared for the central Pacific (30N to 20S, 140W to 180) and a second one for the western Pacific (20N to 20S, 180 to 100E).

3.1.3 Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO). This product shall be prepared by NHC and CPHC during their respective tropical cyclone seasons. Tropical and subtropical cyclones shall be mentioned in the outlook. It should include the system's location (in either general terms or map coordinates), status, and change in status. For the first 24 hours of a tropical cyclone, the outlook shall include a statement that identifies the AFOS and WMO headers for the advisory (appendix E). The outlook covers tropical and subtropical waters and discusses significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone development out to 48 hours. In the Atlantic, the outlook is transmitted at 0530, 1130, 1730, and 2230 Eastern local time. In the eastern Pacific, the transmission times are 0400, 1000, 1600, and 2200 Pacific local time; and in the central Pacific, 0200, 0800, 1400 and 2000 UTC.

3.1.4 Tropical Weather Summary (TWS). This product shall be prepared by each Tropical Cyclone Center after each month to summarize the previous month's tropical cyclone activity. The last TWS of the season will summarize November's activity plus the activity for the whole season.

3.1.5 Special Tropical Disturbance Statement(DSA). These products shall be issued to provide information on strong formative, non-depression systems and will focus on major threats of the disturbance, such as the potential for torrential rains on island or inland areas. They are to be coordinated with appropriate local weather offices.

3.1.6 * Storm Summaries (SCCNS1-5). Storm Summaries are written by HPC after subtropical and named tropical cyclones have moved inland and advisories have been discontinued. Storm summaries shall not be issued for storms entering the coast of Mexico that do not pose an immediate flash flood threat to the conterminous United States. Summaries will be issued at 0500, 1100, 1700, and 2300 UTC, except the first in a series may be issued at an unscheduled time. Storm Summaries shall continue to be numbered in sequence with Tropical Cyclone Advisories and will reference the former storm's name in the text. Storm Summary content will refer to the decaying system's position, intensity, general forecast trends, highlight impacts that have occurred and are expected to occur (usually in relation to heavy rain/flooding and tornadoes), and indicate when the next summary will be issued. These summaries shall be terminated when the threat of flash flooding has ended or when the remnants of these storms can no longer be distinguished from other synoptic features capable of producing flash floods.

3.1.7 Correction Procedures. If a correction needs to be issued for any Tropical Cyclone Center or NCEP product, the reason for the correction shall be listed immediately after the header of the corrected product.

3.2 Tropical Cyclone Advisory Products .

3.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories (TCP). These products are the primary tropical cyclone information products issued by Tropical Cyclone Centers and NWSO Tiyan Guam to the public. In the Atlantic and central Pacific, public advisories shall be issued for all tropical cyclones. In the eastern Pacific, public advisories are issued when watches or warning are required, or the tropical cyclone is otherwise expected to impact nearby land areas. In the western Pacific, public advisories are issued for all tropical cyclones that are expected to affect land within 48 hours. The initial advisory shall be issued when there are data that confirm a tropical cyclone has developed. The title of the advisory will depend upon the strength of the tropical cyclone.

• A tropical depression advisory shall be issued for a tropical cyclone with 1-minute sustained winds up to 33 knots (38 mph).
  
  
• A tropical storm advisory will be used for tropical cyclones with 1-minute sustained surface winds 34 to 63 knots (39 to 73 mph).
  
  
• A hurricane/typhoon shall refer to tropical cyclones with winds 64 knots (74 mph) or greater. Advisories shall headline watches and warnings for hurricane/typhoon and tropical storm conditions.
  
  
• Tropical storm/hurricane watches shall be issued if tropical storm/hurricane conditions are possible over land areas within 36 hours, except in the western north Pacific and elsewhere during weekends and holidays. Tropical storm watches shall not be issued if the tropical cyclone is forecast to reach hurricane/typhoon intensity within the watch period. Hurricane/typhoon watches shall be issued for sections of the coastline where hurricane/typhoon conditions are possible within 36 hours, except up to 48 hours in the western north Pacific and elsewhere during weekends and holidays.
  
  
• Tropical storm/hurricane warnings shall be issued when tropical storm/hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours along the coast. Tropical storm warnings will be issued at the discretion of the hurricane specialist when gale warnings, not related to the pending tropical storm, are already in place. Tropical storm warnings may be issued on either side of a hurricane/typhoon warning area.
  
  
• Public advisories shall cease when tropical cyclones become extratropical, drop below depression stage, or move inland over large land areas, such as the United States. All public advisories shall use the mass media standard text heading outlined in WSOM Chapter C-63, NOAA Weather Wire Service Dissemination).
  
  
  
  

Scheduled public advisories shall be issued at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC with valid position times corresponding to the advisory time.

a. Special Public Advisories. Special public advisories are unscheduled products that shall be issued whenever an unexpected change has occurred requiring a revised forecast or a tropical storm/hurricane watch or warning needs to be issued.

b. Intermediate Public Advisories. These products are issued on a 2 to 3 hourly interval between scheduled advisories (see times of issuance below). Three hourly intermediate advisories are issued whenever a tropical storm or hurricane watch is in effect. Two hourly intermediates are issued whenever tropical storm or hurricane warnings are in effect and coastal radars are able to provide responsible Tropical Cyclone Centers with a reliable hourly center position. For clarity, whenever the Tropical Cyclone Center is issuing intermediates, a statement shall be included at the end of the scheduled public advisory informing customers when an intermediate advisory will be issued, i.e., "AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM PST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT 5 PM PST."

Intermediate public advisories shall be issued to ensure a continuous flow of public information whenever a tropical cyclone affects the coast or is forecast to affect a coast. Intermediate advisories shall not be used to issue tropical cyclone watches or warnings but may be used to clear all, or parts of, a watch or warning area. Content will be similar to that of the scheduled advisory.

• Three hourly issuances...Scheduled advisories at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC. Intermediates at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC.
  
  
• Two hourly issuances...Scheduled advisories at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC. Intermediates at 2300, 0100, 0500, 0700, 1100, 1300, 1700, and 1900 UTC.
  
  
  
  

3.2.2 Tropical Cyclone Forecasts/Advisories (TCM). These products shall be prepared for all tropical cyclones within a Tropical Cyclone Center's area of responsibility. Advisories shall contain forecasts through 72 hours and shall cease when tropical cyclones become extratropical. Advisories shall be issued at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC.

a. Format and Content. Tropical Cyclone Forecasts/Advisories will contain appropriate information as shown in appendix D. All advisories shall contain 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, and 72-hour forecast positions. A standard statement indicating the uncertainty associated with the 48- and 72-hour forecast positions shall precede those two forecasts.

b. Special Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory. This product updates a scheduled advisory if unexpected changes have occurred in a tropical cyclone. Content of the special advisory shall reflect significant changes that required the special advisory to be issued. Special Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisories are issued in conjunction with the issuance of a special public advisory.

3.2.3 Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD). This product is issued by the Tropical Cyclone Centers to explain forecaster's reasoning behind analysis and forecast of the tropical cyclone.

a. Format and Content. Discussions include prognostic reasoning; objective techniques employed; NHC, CPHC, and HPC guidance used; coordinated 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, and 72-hour tropical cyclone forecast points (unless the tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate, in which case points will be given only to that point in time); maximum wind speed forecasts for each forecast point; other meteorological decisions; and plans for watches and warnings. These discussions shall be issued with all scheduled and special advisories. NHC and CPHC shall issue tropical cyclone discussions at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC.

3.2.4 Tropical Cyclone Updates (TCU). These products are brief statements issued in lieu of or preceding special advisories to inform of significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel watches and warnings.

3.2.5 Tropical Cyclone Position Estimate (TCE). Tropical Cyclone Centers issue a position estimate between 2-hourly intermediate advisories whenever sufficient reliable radar center fix information is available to the Tropical Cyclone Center. Position estimates provide location in map coordinates, distance, and direction from a well known point. Position estimates will be transmitted near the beginning of the hour. Local weather office's shall use this information in all official statements.

3.2.6 Strike Probabilities of Tropical Cyclone Conditions (SPF). This product shall describe the probability of tropical cyclone conditions and shall be issued in tabular form at the regularly scheduled public advisory times and when special public advisories are issued. These probabilities shall be issued for all named storms in the Atlantic Basin forecast within 72 hours of landfall. NHC shall issue probabilities for tropical depressions forecast to become named storms and be a threat to land within 72 hours. When a tropical cyclone is forecast to move parallel to a coastline, maximum values over water points will be included.

Probabilities shall be computed for the following locations.

Brownsville, Texas	Ft. Pierce, Florida
Corpus Christi, Texas	Cocoa Beach, Florida
Port O'Connor, Texas	Daytona Beach, Florida
Galveston, Texas	Jacksonville, Florida
Port Arthur, Texas	Savannah, Georgia
New Iberia, Louisiana	Charleston, South Carolina
New Orleans, Louisiana	Myrtle Beach, South Carolina
Buras, Louisiana	Wilmington, North Carolina
Gulfport, Mississippi	Morehead City, North Carolina
Mobile, Alabama	Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
Pensacola, Florida	Norfolk, Virginia
Panama City, Florida	Ocean City, Maryland
Apalachicola, Florida	Atlantic City, New Jersey
St. Marks, Florida	New York, New York
Cedar Key, Florida	Montauk Point, New York
Tampa, Florida	Providence, Rhode Island
Venice, Florida	Nantucket Island, Massachusetts
Fort Myers, Florida	Hyannis, Massachusetts
Marco Island, Florida	Boston, Massachusetts
Key West, Florida	Portland, Maine
Marathon, Florida	Bar Harbor, Maine
Miami, Florida	Eastport, Maine
West Palm Beach, Florida
29N 85W	28N 93W
29N 87W	28N 95W
28N 89W	27N 96W
28N 91W	25N 96W

NOTE: Probabilities are not issued for the west coast of the continental United States, Hawaii, Guam, or Micronesia.

3.3 Subtropical Cyclone Advisory Products.

3.3.1 Subtropical Cyclone Public Advisories (TCP). Subtropical cyclone public advisories are issued by the Tropical Cyclone Centers.

Format and content of these products are similar to the public tropical cyclone advisory. (See appendix D for an example). The advisories shall be titled as "SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION/STORM ADVISORY." In the message body, subtropical depressions/storms are always referred to as "DEPRESSIONS/STORMS." Information will be listed in order of importance with a lead statement, when appropriate, followed by a summary of all coastal warnings. Since the center of a subtropical cyclone can be poorly defined, its location in distance and direction from a well known point should be used. If the center is identifiable, latitude and longitude coordinates shall be used. These advisories shall be issued at the same scheduled times as public tropical cyclone advisories.

a. Special Subtropical Public Cyclone Advisories. These advisories are issued to update previously scheduled advisories whenever an unexpected change has occurred in the cyclone. These advisories shall be issued whenever conditions require warnings to be issued or when other significant changes occur.

b. Intermediate Advisories. The function of these advisories are similar to that of the public intermediate advisory. These advisories will be issued on a 2 or 3 hourly interval between scheduled advisories whenever a subtropical cyclone affects or is forecast to affect a coast. Whenever the NHC issues intermediates, a statement shall be included at the end of the scheduled public subtropical cyclone advisory, communicating the time of the next intermediate advisory issuance.

3.3.2 Subtropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory (TCM). These advisories shall be issued for all subtropical cyclones within a Tropical Cyclone Center's area of responsibility. Format and content shall be similar to that used with tropical cyclone forecast/advisories. The advisory shall be titled as "SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION/STORM ## FORECAST/ADVISORY." In the body of the message, a subtropical depression/storm will always be referred to as just "DEPRESSION/STORM ##." These should be issued at the same times as scheduled tropical cyclone forecast/advisories.

b. Special Subtropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisories. These advisories shall be issued to update any unexpected change that may have occurred with the subtropical cyclone. Format remains the same as the scheduled advisory that is being replaced. These will be issued each time a special subtropical cyclone public advisory is issued.

4.0 Naming and Numbering Tropical and Subtropical Cyclones.

4.1 Identifying Tropical and Subtropical Depressions by Number. The Tropical Cyclone Centers shall be responsible for numbering tropical and subtropical depressions in their areas of responsibility. Tropical depressions shall be numbered consecutively beginning each season with the

spelled out number "ONE." In the Pacific, for ease in differentiation, tropical depression numbers, assigned by NHC or CPHC, shall include the suffix "E" or "C," respectively, after the number. This assigned identifier shall be retained even if the depression passes into another warning area within the Pacific Ocean. In both the Atlantic and Pacific, once the depression has reached tropical storm strength, it shall be named and the depression number dropped, not to be used again until the following year.

Numbering of subtropical cyclones shall follow the same procedure with the following exceptions:

• A separate consecutive numbering sequence beginning with "ONE" shall be used for subtropical depressions and continue in effect if the system strengthens into a tropical storm.
  
  
• If a subtropical cyclone becomes a tropical storm or a hurricane, it receives the next available name in the tropical naming sequence.
  
  

4.2 Naming Tropical Cyclones. Tropical cyclones shall be given a name in the first advisory after it strengthens above depression strength (i.e.,

1-minute sustained surface winds exceed 33 knots [38 mph]). This name shall continue for the tropical cyclone until the last advisory or storm summary is issued, even if the tropical storm/hurricane or typhoon reverts back to a depression. An Example is:

HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6

If a named tropical cyclone passes from the eastern Pacific into the central Pacific or vice versa, the name shall be retained. If a named tropical cyclone passes from the Atlantic Basin into the Pacific basin or vice versa, the tropical cyclone shall be given a new name from the list of names for the new basin.

4.3 Naming of Subtropical Cyclones. Subtropical storms shall be numbered consecutively beginning each season with the spelled out number "ONE." In headers, the term "SUBTROPICAL" shall be used. For example, the header of the third public advisory on the second subtropical storm would be "SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3." The header for the Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory would be "SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3."

5. Numbering Advisories and Tropical Cyclone Discussions. Tropical and subtropical cyclone advisories and discussions in the Atlantic and the Pacific shall be numbered similarly. Scheduled and special advisories and TCDs shall be numbered consecutively beginning with the number 1 (not spelled out) for each new tropical or subtropical cyclone and continue through the duration of the cyclone. When a tropical cyclone passes from the Atlantic Basin to the Pacific Basin or visa versa, it shall be renamed (or be given a new number if a depression) and a new advisory numbering sequence shall begin. In situations where only Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisories and TCDs are being written (tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific not threatening land) and at a later time a public advisory is required, the public advisory number shall match that of the corresponding Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory. In both the Atlantic and the Pacific, intermediate advisories and TCDs shall retain the advisory number of the scheduled or special advisory they update and an alphabetic designator shall be appended (i.e., "HURRICANE ALLISON INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A").

6. Local NWS Office Products.

6.1 Hurricane/Typhoon Local Statements (HLS).

* 6.1.1 Times and Circumstances of Issuance (HLS). The HLS shall be issued by a NWS local office when its area of responsibility is affected by: (1) a tropical cyclone watch/warning, (2) evacuation orders, or (3) rumors that the local MIC feels should be countered by appropriate statements. These unnumbered products will be highly specific, designed to inform media, local decision makers, and the public on present and anticipated storm effects in their CWA and adjacent coastal waters. HLSs shall be issued at regular and frequent intervals, every 2 to 3 hours or more frequently as circumstances warrant when a tropical storm or hurricane is close to the coast. They localize detail to Tropical Cyclone Center's advisory releases and shall not conflict with or repeat advisory information that does not directly apply to the local office's CWA. Tornado, severe thunderstorm, and flash flood WARNINGS shall be issued independent of HLSs as stand-alone products. An HLS can take the place of severe weather, special weather, marine weather, coastal flood, and flash flood statements during storm situations. HLSs shall not be released immediately before an advisory unless information is coordinated with the appropriate Tropical Cyclone Center and--for watches or warnings--the valid initiation time is specified. HLSs do not need to immediately follow the issuance of a new hurricane advisory. Issuing them midway between advisories maintains a steady flow of information to the media and the public. Whenever a new advisory changes the potential impact on a local area, information needs to be distributed in a fresh HLS as soon as possible. HLSs should use tropical cyclone position estimates between advisories when appropriate. When tropical cyclones threaten the Samoas; American Samoa and Samoa, the two local offices shall coordinate with RSMC Nadi, CPHC, and with each other to determine the best integrated and internally consistent forecast of conditions expected in the area.

* 6.1.2 Format and Content. Format shall be standardized with "headlines by hazard" in accordance with instructions and examples in this section and appendix D. Each section of the HLS shall be preceded by a content/topic header set off by three dots before and after each header. The order or information will be as consistent as possible. Information order can be prioritized and adjusted to focus on the greatest threat and most important information impacting the area. The "first" HLS should contain standard, generic preparedness information (board windows, fill vehicles with fuel, etc.) Before the first HLS, routine preparedness information about storing water, filling vehicles with gas, etc., will be released in public information statements (PNS). Information may be added to the end of the HLS describing where additional storm information can be found in supporting Center's TCP and TCM as well as PNSs and NOWs issued by the local office.

6.1.3 Relationship of HLSs to the NOW. The NOWcast (Short term Forecast) shall be a stand-alone product focused on conditions impacting the office's CWA for the next 3 to 6 hours. It will complement the HLS by providing critical storm information in the first eight lines.

6.1.4 Optional Use of Special Weather Statements for Probability of Tropical Cyclone Conditions (SPS). Special Weather Statements (SPS) are used to briefly describe tropical cyclone probabilities prior to HLS release. These statements are needed four times a day following the issuance of probabilities in the 0300, 0900, 1500, 2100 UTC hurricane or tropical storm advisories, or following the issuance of special advisories. The statement will refer to probabilities in the "totals" column instead of various time periods. The probability for your area should be included along with an explanation on how that probability compares to the surrounding coastal sections.

6.2 Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm, and Flash Flood Warnings (TOR/SVR/FFW). Warnings shall be issued when conditions warrant.

6.3 Inland High Wind Watches and Warnings for Hurricane Force Winds (NPW). When a tropical cyclone is expected to remain at hurricane strength well inland, inland high wind watches and warnings for hurricane force winds shall be issued. Inland high wind watches and warnings for hurricane force winds normally will not be issued beyond the second period of the forecast. Wind fields from the Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory of NHC will be used as guidance in the watch. Inland sections of coastal counties may be placed under Inland High Wind Watches for Hurricane Force Winds versus using tropical cyclone watches when the effects of the tropical cyclone can be clearly described to the public. Coordination shall occur with all impacted offices and NHC before issuance. Watches will be highlighted in the appropriate forecasts and statement. Inland High wind warnings for hurricane force winds normally will not be issued beyond the first period of the forecast. Wind fields from the Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory of NHC will be used as guidance in preparation of the warning. Inland sections of coastal counties may be placed under Inland High Wind Warnings for Hurricane Force Winds versus using tropical cyclone warnings when the effects of the tropical cyclone can be clearly described to the public and not lead to confusion. Coordination shall occur with surrounding local offices and NHC prior to issuance. Warnings will be highlighted in the appropriate forecasts and statements.

6.4 Inland High Wind Watches and Warnings for Subtropical and Extratropical Storms. Local NWS offices will issue Inland High Wind Watches and Warnings for Hurricane Force Winds when a subtropical/extratropical storm is expected to spread hurricane/typhoon force winds well inland.

6.5 Correction Procedures. If, during a tropical situation, a NWS local office product needs correction, the reason for the correction shall be listed immediately after the header of the corrected product.

7. Coordination of Advisories, Forecasts, and Statements.

7.1 Tropical Cyclone Forecasts and Advisories.

7.1.1 Atlantic and U.S. Mainland West Coast. NHC and HPC will exchange forecast positions for tropical cyclones and depressions. HPC will prepare and coordinate forecast positions four times each day (0200, 0800, 1400, 2000 UTC) for all tropical cyclones with an initial position west of 60 W and MPC will do the same for all tropical cyclones for all latitudes east of 60 W. These will include positions for use by HPC on graphic charts through 48 hours. HPC shall place on its prognostic charts NHC's and CPHC's tropical cyclone forecast position out to 48 hours. Systems that are unnamed but forecast to attain tropical storm or hurricane/typhoon strength during the forecast period will have their prognostic positions labeled as a tropical cyclone. Forecast positions shall be for 12, 24, 36, 48, and 72 hours based on latest 6 hourly synoptic times. For extended forecast charts (day 3, 4 and 5), appropriate tropical cyclone symbols will be used on the day 3 chart, and the storm will be depicted as a low for days 4 and 5. For storms outside this area, HPC will discuss general synoptic situations, model outputs, and projected storm tracks twice daily at 1400 and 0200 UTC. NHC will provide HPC with regular 3 hourly map-time positions for use in HPC surface analysis (0000, 0300, 0600 UTC, etc.).

NHC and HPC will coordinate the issuance and discontinuance of watches and warnings, storm surge, and other storm parameters. HPC's NPPU shall be involved in coordination calls whenever NHC plans to include QPF amounts (usually 24-hour forecasts or less) for the United States mainland in tropical cyclone advisories. Final coordination calls should be made 1 hour before advisory time. NHC shall involve all impacted regional offices, NWS local offices, and marine offshore and high seas forecast offices (MPC,TAFB,WFO Miami, and WFO New Orleans) in the coordination call with HPC. NHC will make every effort to coordinate with these offices prior to the conference call, resources permitting, if watches or warnings are to be issued or canceled.

7.1.2 Pacific. When tropical cyclones threaten Hawaii or other populated land areas in the central north Pacific, CPHC will discuss precipitation amounts with NPPU. Coordination between NHC and CPHC shall occur whenever a tropical cyclone is between 137 and 143 west longitude. In the event of a disagreement, the Center issuing the next advisory shall make the final decision.

7.2 Other Advisories. NHC and HPC shall coordinate on downgrading tropical and subtropical cyclones moving inland. HPC will coordinate with appropriate RFCs and critical flood support office(s) regarding flooding threats. HPC will also coordinate with NHC if there is a reasonable possibility that advisories may again be needed. This coordination shall take place not more than 90 minutes before storm summary release time.

7.3 Flooding. Tropical Cyclone Centers will include flooding information in their advisories and initiate coordination calls. RFCs, and NWS local offices will coordinate with their Tropical Cyclone Center to discuss flood potential. The advisory issuing office will coordinate any heavy rain condition with NPPU and NPPU products will be consistent with advisory issuing offices. The NESDIS SAB shall provide satellite estimates of rainfall to NWS offices and the National Hurricane Center.

* 7.4 Tornadoes. SPC shall issue tornado watches as required for CONUS areas affected by tropical and subtropical cyclones after coordination with NHC. For CONUS areas SPC shall be the single coordinated voice of the NWS regarding tornado threat. HLS's will convey the level of tornadic threat forecast by SPC based upon SPC products. Tropical Cyclone Centers will include appropriate information about tornadoes in their advisories. NWS office San Juan, and Agana, Guam shall cover any tornadoes or water spouts expected in their area of responsibility in HLSs and warnings.

7.5 Military Services. The NWS is the basic source of tropical cyclone forecasts for all Department of Defense interests in the North Pacific, east of 180 and for the North Atlantic as provided by interdepartmental agreements in the National Hurricane Operations Plan (NHOP). In the event that military interests in the Atlantic area wish to discuss special problems concerning the warnings and forecasts, they will contact the Director, NHC, or a designated alternate, by telephone. In the Pacific, the Director, NHC, or the Director, CPHC, or their designated alternates, shall provide similar services to the military.

* 8. Backup of Tropical Cyclone Centers. In the event of operational failure of a Tropical Cyclone Center, responsibilities shall be transferred to the appropriate alternate facility in accordance with existing directives and retained there until resumption of responsibility is made. Refer to WSOM Chapter J-03, Backup Operations and Site Evacuations; and NHOP for details.

Primary and backup facilities are as follows:

PRIMARY	BACKUP FACILITY
NHC	HPC/TDL
CPHC	NHC
TAFB	MPC/SAB/AWC
JTWC	NAVPACMETOCCEN, Yokosuka

In the event NHC loses operating capabilities HPC shall assume backup operations of NHC. NHC, co-located with TAFB, has warning service responsibility for the Atlantic and for the eastern Pacific Ocean, north of the equator and east of 140 west longitude. Backup to NHC requires backup to TAFB. Backup support to TAFB operations requires the assistance of the MPC, SPC, AWC, and SAB. If for any reason NHC transfers operations to HPC and NHC is not able to return to full operations within 12 to 24 hours of transfer, at least two NHC hurricane specialists shall immediately be dispatched to HPC to assist in backup operations. One or two forecasters will immediately be flown to MPC/SAB and AWC to assist in TAFB backup operations. When working in emergency backup mode, the Techniques Development Laboratory, Marine Techniques Branch at WSH, will assume responsibility for running the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes Model (SLOSH) for HPC and to assist in interpretation.

In the event CPHC loses operating capabilities, TPC shall assume all central Pacific tropical cyclone responsibilities (through the hurricane specialist unit), and marine and satellite services (through TAFB). A backup contingency plan will consist of a comprehensive training program which will be implemented at least annually.

In the event Tiyan, Guam, loses operating capabilities, CPHC shall assume responsibility for issuance of public tropical cyclone advisories.

8.1 Transfer of Responsibility for Issuing Advisories. When a tropical or subtropical cyclone approaches the line of division between Centers responsible for issuing advisories, the forecaster who is currently handling the storm shall:

* a. contact the Center into whose area the storm is moving to plan for transferring responsibility after the issuance of the next advisory. When a tropical cyclone is approaching 180 longitude, CPHC will coordinate with both RSMC Tokyo (the WMO designated tropical cyclone center) and JTWC (the U.S. designated center for U.S. interests in the western Pacific) for transferring responsibilities.

b. coordinate an agreement and add a statement to the final advisory as follows:

• "THE NEXT ADVISORY ON (storm name) WILL BE ISSUED BY THE (appropriate Hurricane Center) AT (time in Coordinated Universal Time [UTC])."
  
  

Proper communication and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) message headers used by the gaining Center should be included in the final advisory. When advisories are no longer required but storm summaries are required on a subtropical cyclone or named tropical cyclone that has moved inland, they shall be issued by HPC. An appropriate statement will be added to the last advisory indicating when HPC will begin issuing summaries. NHC shall coordinate with HPC to determine the time of issuance of the first storm summary.

APPENDIX A

DEFINITIONS:

Tropical Cyclone Program Definitions.

* Advisory. Official information issued by Tropical Cyclone Centers describing all tropical cyclone watches and warnings in effect along with details concerning tropical cyclone locations, intensity, size, and predicted movement, and precautions that should be taken. Advisories are also issued to describe (a) tropical cyclones prior to issuance of watches and warnings and (b) subtropical cyclones. Within the forecast advisory/products from the tropical cyclone centers, definition of the wind radii is the largest radii of that wind speed found in that quadrant. For example; Tropical Cyclone center's quadrants are defined as NE (0-90), SE (90-180), SW (180-270), and NW (270-0). As an example, given maximum 34-knot radii to 150nm at 0 degrees, 90nm at 120 degrees, and 40nm at 260 degrees, the following line would be carried in the forecast/advisory: 150NE 90SE 40SW 150NW.

High Wind Warning. The high winds described here exclude those directly associated with severe local storms. A high wind warning is required when either of the following occur or are expected to occur in the near term:

• Sustained surface wind speeds (1-minute average) of 40 mph (35 knots) or greater lasting for 1 hour or longer, or
  
  
• sustained winds or gusts of 58 mph (50 knots) or greater for any duration.
  
  

Hurricane/Typhoon Eye. The relatively calm area in the center of the storm. In this area, winds are light and the sky often is only partly covered by clouds.

Hurricane/Typhoon Season. The part of the year having a relatively high incidence of hurricanes. In the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico, and central Pacific, the hurricane season is the period from June through November; in the eastern Pacific, May 15 through November 30. The western Pacific tropical cyclones can occur year-round.

Hurricane/Typhoon Warning. A warning that 1-minute sustained surface winds of 64 knots (74 mph) or higher associated with a hurricane or typhoon are expected in a specified coastal area within 24 hours or less. A hurricane or typhoon warning can remain in effect when dangerously high water or a combination of dangerously high water and exceptionally high waves continue even though winds may be less than hurricane or typhoon force.

Hurricane/Typhoon Watch. An announcement for specific coastal areas that hurricane/typhoon conditions are possible within 36 hours, except for 48 hours in the western North Pacific and before weekends and holidays elsewhere.

Hurricane/Typhoon Local Statement (HLS). A public release prepared by WSOs, NWSFOs, or NWSOs in or near a threatened area giving specific details for its county/parish warning area (CWA) on (1) weather conditions, (2) evacuation decisions made by local officials, and (3) other precautions necessary to protect life and property (see section 5.1 for further details).

National Hurricane Operations Plan (NHOP). The NHOP is issued annually by the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research. It documents interdepartmental agreements relating to tropical cyclone observing, warning, and forecasting services. The National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) serve as the principal offices in coordinating the day-to-day activities of the NWS in support of the Plan in their region of responsibility.

* Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS). A scale ranging from one to five based on the hurricane's present intensity. This can be used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane. This scale may be used in public hurricane releases although the SSHS may not be applicable for all geographical areas, e.g., Hawaii and Guam. In practice sustained wind speed is the 1-minute averaged wind at the 10 meter elevation with an unobstructed exposure and is the parameter that determines the category since storm surge is strongly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf.

ONE. Winds 74-95 mph. (65-82 kts.) No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Also, some coastal flooding and minor pier damage.

TWO. Winds 96-110 mph. (83-95 kts.) Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to vegetation, mobile homes, etc. Flooding damages piers and small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings.

THREE. Winds 111-130 mph. (96-113 kts.) Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Mobile homes are destroyed. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by floating debris. Terrain may be flooded well inland.

FOUR. Winds 131-155 mph. (114-135 kts.) More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failure on small residences. Major erosion of beach areas. Terrain may be flooded well inland.

FIVE. Winds greater than 155 mph. (greater than 135 kts.) Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Flooding causes major damage to lower floors of all structures near the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas may be required.

Note: A "major" hurricane is one that is classified as a Category 3 or higher.

Modified Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale for the Central North Pacific

In the central north Pacific, this scale cannot be used to provide a estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane. This scale can be used in public hurricane releases and in discussions with the media. It must be clear that it is not appropriate to estimate damage or surge/coastal flood potential.

ONE		Winds 74-95 mph (65-82kts.)
TWO		Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kts.)
THREE		Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kts.)
FOUR		Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kts.)
FIVE		Winds greater than 155 mph (greater than 135 kts.)

Modified Saffir /Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS) for the West North Pacific.

For Tropical Depression and Tropical Storm:

Maximum sustained Wind (MSW): 30-49 mph (26-43 kt) and peak gusts 40-64 mph (33-56 kt).

Typical Damage - Damage done to only the flimsiest lean-to type structures. Unsecured light signs blown down. Minor damage to banana trees and near-coastal agriculture, primarily from salt spray. Some small dead limbs, ripe coconuts, and dead palm fronds blown down from trees. Some fragile and tender green leaves blown from trees as papaya and fleshy broad leaf plants.

Coastal Inundation and Wave Action - On windward coasts, sea level rise of less than 2 feet (0.7 m) above normal in open bays ans inlets due to storm surge and wind driven waves; breaking waves inside bays can reach 2-3 feet (0.7 - 1.0 m); less than 1 ft (0.3 m) over reefs. Rough surf at reef margin with moderately strong along-shore currents (rip[ tides) inside reefs.

MSW: 50 - 73 mph (44-63 kt) and peak gusts 65-94 mph (57-81 kt)

Typical Damage - Minor damage to buildings of light material; major damage to huts made of thatch or loosely attached corrugated sheet metal or plywood. Unattached corrugated sheet metal and plywood may become airborne. Wooden signs not supported with guy wires are blown down. Moderate damage to banana trees, papaya trees, and most fleshy crops. Large dead limbs, ripe coconuts, many dead palm fronds, some green leaves, and small branches are blown from trees.

Coastal Inundation and Wave Action - On windward coasts, sea level rise of 2-4 ft (0.7-1.2 m) above normal in open bays and inlets due to storm surge and wind-driven waves; breaking waves inside bays can reach 4-6 ft (1.2-1.8 m); 1-2 ft (0.3-0.7 m) over reefs. Very rough surf at reef margin with strong along-shore currents (rip tides) inside reefs.

FOR TYPHOON:

MSW: 74-95 mph (64-82 kt) and peak gusts 95-120 mph (82-105 kt)

Typical Damage - Corrugated metal and plywood stripped from poorly constructed or termite-infested structures and may become airborne. A few wooden, non-reinforced power poles tilted, and some rotten power poles broken and their attached lines down. Some damage to poorly constructed, loosely attached signs. Major damage to banana trees, papaya trees, and fleshy crops. Some young trees downed when the ground is saturated. Some palm fronds crimped and bent back through the crown of coconut palms; a few palm fronds torn from the crowns of most types of palm trees; many ripe coconuts blown from coconut palms. Less than 10% defoliation of shrubbery and trees; up to 10% defoliation of tangantangan. Some small tree limbs downed, especially from large bushy and frail trees such as mango, African tulip , poinciana, etc. Overall damage can be classified as minimal.

Coastal Inundation and Wave Action - On windward coasts, sea level rise of 4-6 ft (1.2-1.8 m) above normal in open bays and inlets due to storm surge and wind-driven waves; breaking waves inside bays can reach 5-7 ft (1.5-2.1 m) above normal; 2-3 ft (0.6-1.0 m) additional water across reef. Wind-driven waves may inundate low-lying coastal roads where reefs are narrow. Minor pier damage. Some small craft in exposed anchorages break moorings.

MSW: 96-110 mph (83-95 kt) and peak gusts 121-139 mph (106-121 kt)

Typical Damage - Several rotten wooden power poles snapped and many non-reinforced wooden power poles tilted. Some secondary power lines downed. Damage to wooden and tin roofs, and doors and windows of termite-infested or rotted wooden structures, but no major damage to well-constructed wooden, sheet metal, or concrete buildings. Considerable damage to structures made of light materials. Major damage to poorly constructed, attached signs. Exposed banana trees and papaya trees totally destroyed; 10-20% defoliation of trees and shrubbery; up to 30% defoliation of tangantangan. Light damage to sugar cane and bamboo. Many palm fronds crimped and bent through the crown of coconut palms and several green fronds ripped from palm trees. Some green coconuts blown from trees. Some trees blown down, especially shallow rooted ones such as small acacia, mango and breadfruit when the ground becomes saturated. Overall damage can be classified as moderate.

Coastal Inundation and Wave Action - On windward coasts, sea level rise of 6-8 ft (1.8-2.4 m) above normal in open bays and inlets due to storm surge and wind-driven waves; breaking waves inside bays can reach 7-9 ft (2.1-2.7 m) above normal; water is about 3-5 ft (1.0-1.5 m) above normal across reef flats. Wind-driven waves will inundate low-lying coastal roads below 4 ft (1.2 m) on windward locations where reefs are narrow. Some erosion of beach areas, some moderate pier damage, and some large boats torn from moorings.

MSW: 111-130 mph (96-113 kt) and Peak Gusts 140-165 mph (122-144 kt)

Typical damage - A few non-reinforced hollow-spun concrete power poles broken or tilted and many non reinforced wooden power poles broken or blown down; many secondary power lines downed. Practically all poorly constructed signs blown down and some stand-alone steel-framed signs bent over. Some roof, window, and door damage to well-built, wooden and metal residences and utility buildings. Extensive damage to wooden structures weakened by termite infestation, wet-and-dry wood rot, and corroded roof straps (hurricane clips). Non-reinforced cinderblock walls blown down. Many mobile homes and buildings made of light materials destroyed. Some glass failure due to flying debris, but only minimal glass failure due to pressure forces associated with extreme gusts. Some unsecured construction cranes blown down. Air is full of light projectiles and debris. Major damage to shrubbery and trees; up to 50% of palm fronds bent or blown off; numerous ripe and many green coconuts blown off coconut palms; crowns blown off of a few palm trees. Moderate damage to sugar cane and bamboo. Some large trees {palm trees }, blown down when the ground becomes saturated; 30-50% defoliation of most trees and shrubs; up to 70% defoliation of tangantangan. Some very exposed panax, tangantangan, and oleander bent over. Overall damage can be classified as extensive.

Coastal Inundation and Wave Action - On windward coasts, sea level rise of 8-12 ft (2.4-3.7 m) above normal in open bays and inlets due to storm surge and wind-driven waves; breaking waves inside bays can reach 11-14 ft (3.3-4.2 m) above normal; water is about 5-8 ft (1.5-2.4 m) above normal across reef flats. Wind-driven waves will inundate low-lying coastal roads below 7 ft (2.1 m) of elevation on windward locations where reefs are narrow. Considerable beach erosion. Many large boats and some large ships torn from moorings.

MSW: 131-155 mph (114-135 kt) and peak gusts 166-197 mph (145-171 kt)

Typical Damage - Some reinforced hollow-spun concrete and many reinforced wooden power poles blown down; numerous secondary and a few primary power lines downed. Extensive damage to non-concrete roofs; complete failure of many roof structures, window frames and doors, especially unprotected, non-reinforced ones; many well-built wooden and metal structures severely damaged or destroyed. Considerable glass failures due to flying debris and explosive pressure forces created by extreme wind gusts. Weakly reinforced cinderblock walls blown down. Complete disintegration of mobile homes and other structures of lighter materials. Most small and medium-sized steel-framed signs bent over or blown down. Some secured construction cranes and gantry cranes blown down. Some fuel storage tanks may rupture. Air is full of large projectiles and debris. Shrubs and trees 50-90% defoliated; up to 100% of tangantangan defoliated. Up to 75% of palm fronds bent, twisted, or blown off; many crowns stripped from palm trees. Numerous green and virtually all ripe coconuts blown from trees. Severe damage to sugar cane and bamboo. Many large trees blown down {palms, breadfruit, monkeypod, mango, acacia, and Australian pine. Considerable bark and some pulp removed from trees; most standing trees are void of all but the largest branches (severely pruned), with remaining branches stubby in appearance; numerous trunks and branches are sandblasted. Patches of panax, tangantangan, and oleander bent over or flattened. Overall damage can be classified as extreme.

Coastal Inundation and Wave Action - On windward coasts, sea level rise of 12-18 ft (3.7-5.5 m) above normal in open bays and inlets due to storm surge and wind-driven waves; breaking waves inside bays can reach 15-24 ft (4.5-7.3 m) above normal; water is about 8-12 ft (2.4-3.7 m) above normal across reef flats. Wind-driven waves will inundate coastal areas below 12 ft (3.7 m) elevation. Large boulders carried inland with waves. Severe beach erosion. Severe damage to port facilities including some loading derricks and gantry cranes. Most ships torn from moorings.

MSW: 156-194 mph (136-170 kt) and peak gusts 198-246 mph (172-216 kt)

Typical Damage - Severe damage to some solid concrete power poles, to numerous reinforced hollow-spun concrete power poles, to many steel towers, and to virtually all wooden poles; all secondary power lines and most primary power lines downed. Total failure of non-concrete reinforced roofs. Extensive or total destruction to non-concrete residences and industrial buildings. Some structural damage to concrete structures, especially from large debris, such as cars, large appliances, etc. Extensive glass failure due to impact of flying debris and explosive pressure forces during extreme gusts. Many well-constructed storm shutters ripped from structures. Some fuel storage tanks rupture. Nearly all construction cranes blown down. Air full of very large and heavy projectiles and debris. Shrubs and trees up to 100% defoliated; numerous large trees blown down. Up to 100% of palm fronds bent, twisted, or blown off; numerous crowns blown from palm trees; virtually all coconuts blown from trees. Most bark and considerable pulp removed from trees. Most standing trees are void of all but the largest branches, which are very stubby in appearance and severely sandblasted. Overall damage can be classified as catastrophic.

Coastal Inundation and Wave Action - On windward coasts, sea level rise of 18 to 30 + ft (5.5 - 9.2 + m) above normal in open bays and inlets due to storm surge and wind-driven waves; breaking waves inside bays can be > 30 ft (9.2 m) above normal; water is about 12-20 + ft (3.7-6.1 + m) above normal across reef flats. Serious inundation likely for windward coastal areas below 18 ft (5.5 m) elevation. Very large boulders carried inland with waves. Extensive beach erosion. Extensive damage to port facilities including most loading derricks and gantry cranes. Virtually all ships, regardless of size, torn from moorings.

Probability of Tropical Cyclone Conditions. The probability, in percent, that the cyclone center will pass within 50 miles to the right or 75 miles to the left of the listed location within the indicated time period when looking at the coast in the direction of the cyclone's movement.

Short Term Forecast (NOW). Issued at frequent intervals, these products give the short-term status of events and short-term forecasts. When issued every hour or so during active weather, they are effective in conveying timely and sometimes vital information about a potential or existing hazard. The product is available under the Automation of Field Operations and Services (AFOS) category "NOW." See section 5.1.3 and WSOM Chapter C-21, Local and Regional Statements, Summaries, and Tables, for further details concerning NOWs.

Storm Surge. An abnormal rise in sea level accompanying a tropical cyclone or other intense storm and whose height is the difference between the observed level of the sea surface and the level that would have occurred in the absence of the storm. Storm surge is usually estimated by subtracting the normal or astronomical tide from the observed storm tide.

Storm Tide. The actual sea level resulting from the astronomical tide combined with the storm surge.

Mean Sea Level (MSL). The arithmetic mean of hourly water elevations observed over a specific 19-year tidal epoch.

Mean Low Water (MLW). The arithmetic mean of the low water heights observed over a specific 19-year tidal epoch.

Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW). The arithmetic mean of the lower low water heights of a mixed tide observed over a specific 19-year tidal epoch. Only the lower low water of each pair of low waters, or the only low water of a tidal day is included in the mean.

Subtropical Cyclones. Nonfrontal, low pressure systems comprising initially baroclinic circulations developing over subtropical waters.

Subtropical Depression. A subtropical cyclone in which the maximum 1-minute sustained surface wind is 33 knots (38 mph) or less.

Subtropical Storm. A subtropical cyclone in which the maximum 1-minute sustained surface wind is 34 knots (39 mph) or more. There are two types, each of which can evolve into a tropical storm or hurricane/typhoon. These are referred to as storms in public advisories and statements.

• An upper level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the pressure center.
  
  
• A mesoscale cyclone originating in or near a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, with radius of maximum sustained winds generally less than 30 miles. The entire circulation sometimes encompasses an area initially no more than 100 miles in diameter. These generally short-lived, marine cyclones may vary in structure from cold to warm core.
  
  

Tropical Storm Warning. A warning for tropical storm conditions, including 1-minute sustained surface winds within the range 34 to 63 kts (39 to 73 mph) that are expected in a specified coastal area within 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Watch. An announcement that a tropical storm or tropical storm conditions pose a threat to coastal areas within 36 hours, except for the western North Pacific, where conditions may occur within 48 hours. A tropical storm watch should normally not be issued if the tropical cyclone is forecast to attain hurricane strength.

Tropical Disturbance. A discrete tropical weather system of apparently organized convection--generally 100 to 300 mi in diameter--originating in the tropics or subtropics, having a nonfrontal migratory character and maintaining its identity for 24 hours or more. It may or may not be associated with a detectable perturbation of the wind field.

Tropical Wave. A trough or cyclonic curvature maximum in the trade wind easterlies. The wave may reach maximum amplitude in the lower middle troposphere or may be the reflection of an upper tropospheric cold low or an equatorward extension of a mid-latitude trough.

Tropical Cyclone. A generic term for a non-frontal synoptic scale cyclone originating over tropical or subtropical waters with organized convection and definite cyclonic surface wind circulation.

Tropical Depression. A tropical cyclone in which the maximum 1-minute sustained surface wind is 33 knots (38 mph) or less.

Tropical Storm. A tropical cyclone in which the maximum 1-minute sustained surface wind ranges from 34 to 63 knots (39 to 73 mph) inclusive.

Hurricane/Typhoon. A tropical cyclone in which the maximum 1-minute sustained surface wind is 64 knots (74 mph) or greater.

Gale Warning. A warning of 1-minute sustained surface winds in the range 34 knots (39 mph) to 47 knots (54 mph) inclusive, either predicted or occurring not directly associated with tropical cyclones.

Storm Warning. A warning of 1-minute sustained surface winds of 48 knots (55 mph) or greater, either predicted or occurring, not directly associated with tropical cyclones.

APPENDIX B

EMERGENCY OPERATING INSTRUCTIONS:

Emergency Operating Instructions. National Centers and offices with primary and backup warning and forecast responsibilities for areas within 300 miles of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and east or south of the Appalachian ridges, in Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Guam, on the California coast from Point Conception southward, and in the southern North Pacific shall prepare and keep an up-to-date local Tropical Cyclone Emergency Operations Plan. The Plan should specify actions to be taken. The following shall be included in the Station Duty Manual: What to do;

a. before each tropical cyclone season,

b. when a tropical cyclone constitutes a possible threat to their CWA,

c. when a Tropical Storm, Hurricane or Typhoon Watch, or Inland High Wind Watch for Hurricane Force Winds is issued for their CWA,

d. when a Tropical Storm, Hurricane or Typhoon Warning, or Inland High Wind Warning for Hurricane Force Winds is issued for their CWA, and

e. immediately after the tropical cyclone has passed.

Emergency Warnings Exercises. Practice exercises, as outlined in WSOM Chapter A-17, should be conducted before the tropical cyclone season each year. Community exercise messages shall contain the word "EXERCISE" at the beginning and end of the text. Office backup and other appropriate drills should also be conducted.

Emergency Action When Warning Not Received or Considered Inadequate. When warnings are not received or are inadequate to cover current or imminent conditions, local offices should issue HLSs or warnings as needed. Whenever possible, the appropriate local office should be consulted and its clearance obtained before such action is taken. However, if communications failure prevents clearance or if the delay would jeopardize life or property, then immediate action should be taken and the appropriate Tropical Cyclone Center be notified as soon as possible.

APPENDIX C

TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORTS:

Preliminary Post-Storm Reports by NWSFOs and NWSOs. Preliminary post-storm reports shall be prepared by all local NWS offices issuing HLSs on a storm. Non-coastal offices that issue Inland High Wind Watches/Warnings for Hurricane Force Winds shall also submit preliminary reports. Other offices shall prepare preliminary reports at the request of appropriate Tropical Cyclone Center(s). Preliminary reports shall be transmitted within 5 days following the transmission of the last public release. All preliminary reports will be addressed to the appropriate Tropical Cyclone Center or National Center and a copy to WSH, W/OM12. Inland offices impacted by a tropical cyclone or its remnants will provide the same information via a LSR.

In addition, within 5 days following the last HLS, updates of the preliminary reports shall be submitted to the appropriate Tropical Cyclone Center or National Center and a copy to WSH, W/OM12.

The following items should be included in preliminary reports and shall be included in the final updated report when available.

a. Highest 1-minute sustained surface wind speed (knots), peak gust (knots), and date/times of occurrence in UTC. Also, report any other wind data in the CWA considered reliable and noteworthy and list adjusted speeds corrected for instrument type and speed range if known. Specify anemometer height (feet) if other than 33 feet and duration (minutes) if other than a 1-minute sustained average.

b. Lowest sea level pressure (millibars), including date/time (UTC) of occurrence.

c. Storm total rainfall amount (inches) and duration (dates). In addition, list maximum 1-, 6-, 12-, and 24-hour amounts (inches) identifying date/time (UTC) of occurrence.

d. Maximum storm tide heights (feet) ASL and storm surge heights (feet) above normal. Identify location and date/time (UTC) of occurrence.

e. Extent of beach erosion if appropriate.

f. Flooding and/or flash flooding in CWA. Include date/times (UTC) and locations of occurrence.

g. Tornadoes in CWA (times and locations).

h. Preliminary storm effects, such as deaths, injuries, dollar damages, number of people evacuated, etc., within an office's CWA.

Example: Preliminary Storm report

NEWPSHNEW

TTAA00 KNEW 032226

PRELIMINARY STORM REPORT...HURRICANE ANDREW

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA

500 PM CDT MON SEP 3 1992

A. HIGHEST WINDS...

NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...

1 - MINUTE 39 KNOTS FROM 150 DEGREES 0950 UTC AUG 26 1992

PEAK GUST 72 KNOTS FROM 020 DEGREES AT 0728 UTC AUG 26 1992

P92 AMOS LOCATED AT SALT POINT, ST. MARY PARISH 19.5N 91.3W

...ETC

B. LOWEST PRESSURE...

LOWEST PRESSURE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT - 960.1 MB AT

0805 UTC AUG 26 1992

...ETC

C. RAINFALL...

NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

STORM TOTAL 5.70 AUG 25-26 1992

1 HOUR TOTAL 0.89 0800-0900 UTC 26 AUG 1992

...ETC

D. STORM TIDES...

MARINA 4.28 2100 UTC AUG 26 1992

N END OF CAUSEWAY 4.94 1100 UTC AUG 26 1992

...ETC

E. BEACH EROSION...

LEVEL OF EROSION PRESENTLY UNKNOWN

...ETC

F. FLOODING...

STORM TIDE FLOODING TO THE ENTIRE LOUISIANA COAST FROM LAKE BORGNE WEST TO VERMILION BAY...ETC

G. TORNADOES...

F3 TORNADO FROM LA PLACE TO RESERVE IN ST JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH...ETC

H. STORM EFFECTS...

TORNADO 2 DEAD 32 INJURED

HURRICANE 4 DEAD UNKNOWN 2 MISSING

AN ESTIMATED ONE AND ONE QUARTER MILLION PEOPLE EVACUATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...ETC

* Information for Storm Survey Reports. A copy of media reports, especially newspaper clippings (online and printed) representative of the event and its impacts, shall be forwarded to the appropriate RH and TPC within 7 days following the issuance of the last product concerning the storm for informational purposes. This does not have to include all interviews or radio or television spots concerning the landfall event in each local office's CWA.

*

Preliminary Post-Storm Reports. Offices whose CWA is affected by a storm shall mail casualty and damage totals to the appropriate Tropical Cyclone Center(s) and W/OM12 within 30 days after the storm. As described in WSOM

F-42, each field office is responsible for the preparation of Storm Data for its CWA. Tropical Cyclone Centers shall send copies of their preliminary reports to the National Climatic Data Center (E/CC) and W/OM12. Under extenuating circumstances, exceptions can be made if the office is damaged due to the storm. In this rare case, the office's MIC shall coordinate with the with the respective Regional Headquarters MSD for an extension.

Preliminary Reports by NHC. NHC shall prepare a final track chart and summary of all tropical cyclones occurring in their area of responsibility. Copies shall be sent no later than 90 days after the last advisory on each tropical cyclone to the appropriate RH(s), the Office of Meteorology's Integrated Hydrometeorological Services (IHS), (W/OM12), and the National Oceanographic Data Center (E/OC).

NHC should prepare a tropical cyclone season data tabulation for the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. CPHC should prepare similar summaries for the central Pacific. All tabulations should be distributed to appropriate government agencies.

APPENDIX D

Tropical Weather Products Format and Content

Example: Tropical Weather Outlook

MIATWOAT

TTAA00 KNHC 110930

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

530 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 1992

FOR THE ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM LINDA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A WELL ORGANIZED CLOUD SYSTEM EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA. TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM LINDA CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND AFOS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PASCH

ADVISORIES:

Advisories can optionally begin with a lead statement or headline to emphasize significant aspects of the tropical cyclone . The headline will be separated from the rest of the advisory. Information in the rest of the advisory should be in descending order of importance or urgency. At the end of the advisory, the tropical cyclone position should be repeated, and maximum winds, minimum pressure, present movement, and forecast movement (if change is indicated) should also be repeated. The time and office responsible for the next advisory should be provided along with new message headers if the tropical cyclone is passed to another Center. Following this, the forecaster's name should be included at the end of the message.

Advisories will summarize all coastal watches and warnings in effect, including tropical cyclone watches. The first advisory in which watches or warnings are mentioned should give the effective time of the watch or warning, except when they are being issued by other countries and the time is not known. A watch should not be made effective more than 36 hours before expected landfall. However, before weekends or holidays, a watch can be made effective 48 hours ahead of landfall. Except for tropical storms and hurricanes/typhoons forming close to land, a watch should precede a tropical cyclone or tropical storm warning. Once a watch is in effect, it should either be replaced by a warning or remain in effect until the threat of the tropical cyclone conditions has passed.

NOTE: A hurricane/typhoon watch and a tropical storm warning can be in effect for the same section of coast at the same time.

Tropical cyclone storm warnings should not be made effective more than 24 hours in advance. The term "SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY" should not be used in advisories. The phrase "SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT" is used in lieu of small craft advisory and is considered equivalent or even stronger when used in connection with tropical or subtropical cyclones. When discontinuing tropical cyclone warnings for a given coastal section where small craft advisories are to remain in effect, the following statement should be used: "SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST. SEE LOCAL NWS COASTAL FORECASTS FOR CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA." This statement should be contained in the NHC advisory discontinuing tropical storm warnings and the following NHC advisory if one is issued.

It is not advantageous to step down warnings for tropical cyclones. This approach would cause confusion for the media and public and is especially be true for tropical cyclones whose tracks parallel the coast. All advisories shall include the location of the center of the tropical cyclone both by its latitude and longitude and as distance and direction from a well known point preferably down stream from the tropical cyclone. If the tropical cyclone forecaster is unsure of the exact location of a depression, the position may be given as within 50, 75, etc., miles of a map coordinate. When the center of the tropical cyclone is over land, its position should be given with reference to the state or country in which it is located, as well as with respect to some well known city if appropriate. In addition, the present movement should be given to 16 points of the compass if possible. A 24-hour forecast of movement should be included in terms of a continuance or departure from the present movement and speed. This may be reduced to a 12-hour forecast. Uncertainties in either the tropical cyclone's location or movement should be explained in the advisory. An outlook beyond 24 hours (out to 72 hours when appropriate) may be included in the text of the advisory.

Movement forecasts apply to the tropical cyclone's center, landfall forecasts of the center should be made with caution to avoid giving the public any false sense of security. Other forecast parameters should be used to describe the center's landfall. When a threat to any land exists, it should be stressed that the tropical cyclone's effects extend well beyond the small area near the tropical cyclone's center.

Wind, pressure, and storm surge are used to describe the storm. Maximum 1-minute sustained surface wind speed should be given, and during landfall threats, specific gust values and phrases like "BRIEFLY HIGHER IN SQUALLS" may be used. The area (or radius) of both tropical and hurricane force winds may also be included. Central pressure values and storm surge heights (above normal astronomical tides) should be provided where known.

Forecasts will be made for the maximum 1-minute sustained surface wind speed in all advisories. The expected times of onset of tropical storm and hurricane/typhoon force winds along the coast may be given in general terms, such as this afternoon or tonight, when warnings are in effect. Storm surge forecasts should specify time(s) of significant heights at areas along the coast and should include wave information if possible. When discussing storm surges, it should be indicated that these are values above normal tide levels and in a qualitative sense, when surges are expected to occur during abnormally high and low astronomical tides. Intensity forecasts should be for 12 hours only and stated as an increase, decrease, or no change from the present intensity. The storm may also be compared to some memorable hurricane or referred to by relative intensity. Where appropriate, the SSHS may be used in public releases.

Inland effects of tropical cyclones should also be highlighted in advisories. This includes the threat of strong winds, heavy rainfall, flooding, and tornadoes. The extent and magnitude of inland winds should be included as well as anticipated rainfall amounts and potential for flooding and tornadoes. Tornado and flood watches shall be included as appropriate. Actual occurrences of tornadoes, floods, and high winds will be mentioned to add a note of urgency and to support warnings and statements from local offices. Action statements in advisories should be general with references to local office products for specific recommended actions.

Times referred to in advisories should be local time of the affected area except UTC should also be used in conjunction with storm location. Statute miles and statute miles per hour will be used in all advisories. Nautical miles/knots may be used in parentheses immediately following statute miles/mph in public advisories at the discretion of the Tropical Cyclone Center. Atlantic advisories should include the metric units of kilometers and kilometers per hour following the equivalent English units except when the United States is the only country threatened.

Examples of Mass News Disseminator Headers for Tropical Cyclones:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1

TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 3

HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 4

SUBTROPICAL STORM THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1

Example: Tropical Depression Public Advisory

MIATCPAT3

TTAA00 KNHC 170300

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

1100 PM AST SUN AUG 16 1992

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC...

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER THE ATLANTIC MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 38.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1525 MILES...2240 KM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 21 MPH...25 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...40 KM/HR. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.2 NORTH LATITUDE AND 38.3 WEST LONGITUDE WITH MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST AT 21 MPH...25 KM/HR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 35 MPH...40 KM/HR...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST...MONDAY.

MAYFIELD

Tropical Storm Public Advisory Example:

MIATCPAT3

TTAA00 KNHC 171500

TROPICAL STORM ANDREW ADVISORY NUMBER 3

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

1100 AM AST MON AUG 17 1992

...FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCATED IN THE ATLANTIC HAS STRENGTHENED DURING THE MORNING. TROPICAL STORM ANDREW IS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 1992 HURRICANE SEASON.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1175 MILES...1880 KM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH...30 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 MPH...45 KM/HR. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...70 KM/HR FROM THE STORM CENTER.

ANDREWS ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...13.0N...43.3W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST AT 25 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST MONDAY.

BEVEN

Example: Hurricane/typhoon Public Advisory

MIATCPAT3

TTAA00 KNHC 231700

HURRICANE ANDREW ADVISORY NUMBER 28

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992

...DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE TAKING AIM ON SOUTH FLORIDA...

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE ALSO IN EFFECT NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO TITUSVILLE FLORIDA. IN ADDITION A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BAYPORT...TO INCLUDE THE GREATER TAMPA BAY AREA...TO NORTH OF FLAMINGO.

ALL PRECAUTIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY...INCLUDING ORDERED EVACUATIONS...SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR APPROXIMATELY 330 MILES...430 KM EAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

HURRICANE ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 16 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY. ON THIS PRESENT COURSE HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS ON MONDAY.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 MPH...155 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LAmanual AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE INDICATE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...50 KM FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...135 KM. LAmanual AIRCRAFT REPORTED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 930 MB OR 27.46 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND UP TO 18 FEET OF STORM SURGE IS POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND. STORM SURGES OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA COAST AND KEYS NEAR TO WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. SURGE HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 13 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN BISCAYNE BAY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...25.4 NORTH LATITUDE AND 75.0 WEST LONGITUDE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 16 MPH...20 KM/HR. LAmanual AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...155 KM/HR. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB OR 27.46 INCHES.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

MAYFIELD

Example: Intermediate Public Advisory:

MIATCPAT3

TTAA00 KNHC 240658

HURRICANE ANDREW INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31B

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FLORIDA

300 AM EDT MON AUG 24 1992

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ANDREW CLOSING IN ON SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE DRY TORTUGAS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF VENICE...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE...AND THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF VENICE TO BAYPORT. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

RADAR DATA...SATELLITE PICTURES...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ANDREW CONTINUES ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH. THE CENTER OF ANDREW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CITY OF MIAMI AROUND 5 AM THIS MORNING.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. FOWEY ROCKS...LOCATED ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN MIAMI...REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO 69 MPH DURING THE PAST HOUR.

AT 3 AM EDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF MIAMI. REPORTS FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOW 936 MB...27.64 INCHES.

ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...225 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

ANDREW IS EXPECTED TO LOSE LITTLE STRENGTH UPON MAKING LANDFALL AND CROSSING THE PENINSULA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION RELATED TO INLAND HIGH WIND WARNINGS REFER TO ISSUANCES BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. STORM SURGES OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND KEYS NEAR TO WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 13 FEET IN BISCAYNE BAY. STORM SURGES OF 7 TO 11 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER AFTER PASSAGE OF THE HURRICANE.

TORRENTIAL RAINS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF THE STORM AND ACROSS MOST OF EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING THE CITY OF MIAMI. THOUGH THE SPEED OF THE STORM SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY MASSIVE INLAND FLOODING...RESIDENTS NEAR LAKES...DRAINAGE CANALS...AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

AT THIS POINT...ALL EVACUATIONS FOR STORM SURGE SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. THOSE NOT EXPECTED TO EVACUATE SHOULD HAVE TAKEN APPROPRIATE SHELTER FOR HIGH WINDS...INLAND FLOODING...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR ADVICE FROM THEIR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES AND LOCAL OFFICIALS FOR CRITICAL INFORMATION ON THE SPECIFIC THREATS FROM HURRICANE ANDREW.

REPEATING THE 3 AM EDT POSITION...25.4N...79.7W. MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.

Example: Special Public Advisory:

MIATCPAT3

TTAA00 KNHC 241309

HURRICANE ANDREW SPECIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

900 AM EDT MON AUG 24 1992

...HURRICANE ANDREW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF VENICE TO FLAMINGO AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AT 9 AM EDT A HURRICANE WATCH WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO SABINE PASS TEXAS. ALL OTHER POSTED WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED.

WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL NWS OFFICES FOR THE LAmanual FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS IN THEIR AREA.

AT 9 AM EDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR APPROXIMATELY 45 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

HURRICANE ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 18 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD TO 30 MILES...50 KM FROM THE CENTER WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD TO 140 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGES OF 5 TO 8 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE HURRICANE. ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA STORM SURGE TIDES ARE DECREASING. PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT INDICATE THAT A STORM SURGE OF 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WAS RECORDED IN BISCAYNE BAY NEAR HOMESTEAD FLORIDA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 9 AM EDT POSITION...LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST AND MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT MON.

Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory

NOTE: As part of the header, a code string is appended at the end of the line "NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL"

Format: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL BSNOYR

where: (BS) is the basin (AL, EP or CP)

where: (NO) is the tropical cyclone number (01, 02, 03,...99)

where: (YR) is the last two digits of the year.

Example: Hurricane Forecast/Advisory

MIATCMAT3

TTAA00 KNHC 182100

HURRICANE BOB FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL0291

2100Z SUN AUG 18 1991

AT 5 PM EDT...HURRICANE WARNINGS WERE EXTENDED NORTH AND EASTWARD FROM CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE THROUGH PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS. THE WARNING AREA INCLUDES LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...CONNECTICUT EAST OF NEW HAVEN...AND CAPE COD. HURRICANE WARNINGS NOW EXTEND FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WERE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE DELAWARE BAY...AND CONTINUE FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF PATUXENT RIVER INCLUDING THE GREATER NORFOLK AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN POSTED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST COAST FROM PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTPORT MAINE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 76.0W AT 18/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB

EYE DIAMETER 20 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT

64 KT......100NE 100SE 25SW 25NW

50 KT......125NE 125SE 50SW 50NW

34 KT......150NE 150SE 75SW 75NW

12 FT SEAS 150NE 150SE 75SW 75NW

ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED AT 33.9N 76.0W AT 18/2100Z.

AT 18/1800Z...CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 75.9W.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 36.5N 74.5W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT

64 KT......100NE 100SE 25SW 25NW

50 KT......125NE 125SE 50SW 50NW

34 KT......150NE 150SE 75SW 75NW

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 41.0N 71.0W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT

64 KT......100NE 100SE 25SW 25NW

50 KT......125NE 125SE 50SW 50NW

34 KT......150NE 150SE 75SW 75NW

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.0N 66.0W

MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 105 KT

64 KT......100NE 100SE 25SW 25NW

50 KT......125NE 125SE 50SW 50NW

34 KT......150NE 150SE 75SW 75NW

STORM SURGE OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE IS POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA OF NORTH CAROLINA AND 3 TO 5 FEET IN THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNED AREA. IN ADDITION...LARGE WAVES WITH BEACH EROSION WILL BE EXPERIENCED IN THE WARNED AREAS.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 76.0W.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 50.5N 60.0W

MAX WINDS 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT

50 KT...125NE 125SE 50SW 50NW

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 56.0N 47.0W

MAX WINDS 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT

50 KT...125NE 125SE 50SW 50NW

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

RAPPAPORT

STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.

NNNN

Example: Tropical Cyclone Update from - CPHC:

HNLTCUCP

TTAA00 KHNL 222000

HURRICANE INIKI TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI

100 PM PST SAT AUG 22 1992

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE WINDS IN INIKI HAVE REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH...

SHORTLY AFTER 1 PM PST...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM INIKI HAD INCREASED TO HURRICANE FORCE. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL HURRICANE ADVISORY AT 2 PM PST.

HABLUTZEL

Example: Tropical Cyclone Position Estimate

MIATCEAT

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE HUGO...POSITION ESTIMATE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

300 AM AST TUE SEP 19 1989

AT 3 AM AST THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUGO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST. THIS IS APPROXIMATELY 155 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND 220 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND OF THE BAHAMAS.

LAWRENCE

Example: Strike Probabilities

Probabilities are based on the official forecast track and will be issued when the 72-hour forecast position approaches the coast and will be carried in advisories until the storm makes landfall. Two conditions in which probability information should not be issued are: (1) the tropical cyclone/tropical storm has made landfall and is not expected to reemerge over water, and/or (2) computed probability values are not significant. NHC may discontinue issuance of probabilities earlier if other factors arise, such as difficulties with evacuation orders, etc. At the discretion of the hurricane forecaster, probabilities need not be listed for sites where the tropical storm or hurricane would likely be over land or less than tropical storm strength at the time it would affect the site. NHC may include a brief explanation of probabilities in the advisory.

The probabilities should be computed shortly after synoptic times for the periods 0-24, 24-36, 36-48, and 48-72 hours. A total probability for the next 72 hours should be shown in the last column and should represent a total of all forecast periods. The probability of the storm striking a coastal location within 48 hours may be determined by adding the 0-24, 24-36, and 36-48 hour probabilities. If the probability for a location is less than 1 percent, an "X" will be indicated in the table. If probabilities are not issued, a statement indicating this exclusion will be contained in both the public advisory and tropical cyclone forecast/advisory. Refer to Probability of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Conditions: A User's Manual for further information.

Example: Probability of tropical cyclone conditions:

MIASPFAT1

TTAA00 KNHC 230900

HURRICANE ANDREW PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

5 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST.

CHANCES IN PERCENT OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2 AM EDT WED AUG 26 1992.

COASTAL LOCATIONS	A	B	C	D	E		COASTAL LOCATIONS	A	B	C	D	E
25.5N 80.3W	40	X	X	X	40		VENICE FL	5	16	1	X	22
26.1N 83.3W	4	20	X	1	25		TAMPA FL	1	13	2	1	17
26.9N 86.2W	X	8	9	2	19		CEDAR KEYS FL	X	5	5	2	12
MUCF 221N 805W	1	2	1	1	5		ST MARKS FL	X	1	4	5	10
MUSN 216N 826W	X	3	1	1	5		APALACHICOLA FL	X	1	6	5	12
MUHA 230N 824W	3	10	1	1	15		PANAMA CITY FL	X	X	6	5	11
MUAN 219N 850W	X	3	4	2	9		PENSACOLA FL	X	X	3	8	11
MMCZ 205N 869W	X	X	2	2	4		MOBILE AL	X	X	2	9	11
MYSM 241N 745W	13	X	X	X	13		GULFPORT MS	X	X	2	9	11
MYEG 235N 758W	2	X	X	X	2		BURAS LA	X	X	3	10	13
MYAK 241N 776W	33	X	X	1	34		NEW ORLEANS LA	X	X	2	10	12
MYNN 251N 775W	68	X	X	X	68		NEW IBERIA LA	X	X	1	10	11
MYGF 266N 787W	43	X	X	X	43		PORT ARTHUR TX	X	X	X	10	10
MMSO 238N 982W	X	X	X	3	3		GALVESTON TX	X	X	X	10	10
MMTM 222N 979W	X	X	X	2	2		FREEPORT TX	X	X	X	9	9
MMMD 210N 897W	X	X	1	4	5		PORT OCONNOR TX	X	X	X	8	8
MARATHON FL	29	3	X	X	32		CORPUS CHRISTI TX	X	X	X	7	7
MIAMI FL	40	X	X	X	40		BROWNSVILLE TX	X	X	X	6	6
W PALM BEACH FL	32	1	X	X	33		GULF 29N 85W	X	2	8	4	14
FT PIERCE FL	17	5	X	1	23		GULF 29N 87W	X	1	7	6	14
COCOA BEACH FL	6	8	1	1	16		GULF 28N 89W	X	X	8	8	16
DAYTONA BEACH FL	1	5	2	2	10		GULF 28N 91W	X	X	4	10	14
JACKSONVILLE FL	X	1	2	3	6		GULF 28N 93W	X	X	1	11	12
SAVANNAH GA	X	X	X	2	2		GULF 28N 95W	X	X	X	10	10
KEY WEST FL	20	7	1	X	28		GULF 27N 96W	X	X	X	9	9
MARCO ISLAND FL	23	7	1	X	31		GULF 25N 96W	X	X	X	7	7
FORT MYERS FL	15	11	1	X	27

COLUMN DEFINITION...PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT

A...IS PROBABILITY OF STRIKE FROM NOW THROUGH 5 AM MON

B...IS PROBABILITY OF STRIKE FROM 5 AM MON THROUGH 5 PM MON

C...IS PROBABILITY OF STRIKE FROM 5 PM MON THROUGH 5 AM TUE

D...IS PROBABILITY OF STRIKE FROM 5 AM TUE THROUGH 5 AM WED

E...IS THE TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW THROUGH 5 AM WED

X...REPRESENTS PROBABILITIES LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

NOTE: Above probability table is provided as an example depicting the format. The probabilities included do not necessarily agree with the predicted forecast positions.

Example: Subtropical Cyclone forecast products

MIATCPAT1

TTAA00 KNHC 120900

SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 4

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

500 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 1993

...COASTAL STORM BRINGS FLOOD THREAT TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN THE COASTAL AND PIEDMONT AREAS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD BE PREPARED TO PROTECT THEMSELVES AGAINST FLOODING OR BE READY TO MOVE TO AREAS SAFE FROM FLOODING IF NECESSARY.

HEAVY RAINS FROM THE STORM CENTERED 50 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ARE OCCURRING OVER MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THE STORM IS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH BUT SHOULD SLOW DOWN BY TONIGHT. THIS MEANS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR IN SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND IN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.

...................rest of text not shown..............................

Example: Storm Summary

ZCZC NFDSCCNS2

TTAA00 KNFD 291658

STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 58 FOR T.D. "GEORGES"

NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...NWS...CAMP SPRINGS MD

1200 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 1998

AT 1000 AM CDT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH "GEORGES" WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 87.9W...OR ROUGHLY 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST O MOBILE ALABAMA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE JUST OVER 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH..AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

AT THE PRESENT TIME...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY IS STILL SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH "GEORGES." LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE STREAMING NORTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS MOISTURE HAS LED TO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR NORTH AS NORTH GEORGIA...WHERE THE MOISTURE IS INTERACTING WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR BEING WRAPPED AROUND WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION HAS BROUGHT AN END TO THE HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTH AND EAST MISSISSIPPI...WHERE ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN.

THE BIG STORY NOW WITH "GEORGES" WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF TORNADOES ALONG ITS EAST EDGE. BANDS OF TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO ADJACENT SOUTH ALABAMA. THIS WILL ADD TO THE VERY HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS THAT HAVE OCCURRED SINCE THE STORM MADE LANDFALL OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY INCLUDE:

...ALABAMA...

BAY MINNETTE (BALDWIN CO) 14.55 INCHES

ALABAMA PORT (MOBILE CO) 13.66 INCHES

MOBILE AIRPORT 12.20 INCHES

AXIS (MOBILE CO) 10.00 INCHES

CHATOM (WASHINGTON CO) 9.80 INCHES

SEMINOLE 9.43 INCHES

...FLORIDA...

MUNSON (SANTA ROSA CO) 25.06 INCHES

PENSACOLA AIRPORT (ESCAMBIA CO) 10.08 INCHES

NICEVILLE (OKALOOSA CO) 10.08 INCHES

...MISSISSIPPI...

LEAKESVILLE (GREENE CO) 8.29 INCHES

SATELLITE AND RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAVE RECEIVED OVER 30 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AS A RESULT OF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...THERE ARE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE WEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WEST AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.

IN ADDITION...SINCE DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEMS FREQUENTLY PRODUCE TORNADOES AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS.

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY HPC AT 600 PM CDT.

MAUSSER/FORECAST OPERATIONS BRANCH

Essential contents of Hurricane Local Statements and examples:

...Headline...

Concise lead sentence or headline.

...Areas Affected...

Details of which counties, parishes, or cities are included in the HLS.

...Watches Warnings...

Watches and warnings in effect and counties or parishes to which they apply.

...Storm Information...

Present location, movement, and winds and expected time of onset of tropical storm/hurricane/typhoon force winds. (The tropical cyclone forecast/advisory should be used as guidance.)

...Precautionary/Preparedness Actions...

Short-term precautionary actions and times they should be completed.

This includes any evacuation recommendations contained in the advisory or stated by local authorities. Listing these actions is particularly important once a tropical cyclone watch or warning is announced.

...Storm Surge Flood and Storm Tide impacts...

Storm surge and storm tide (storm surge plus astronomical tide)

information, including times various heights are expected, present heights, and their locations. Storm surge information must agree with Tropical Cyclone Center forecasts as included in the advisories. Storm tide information should be included because local officials might not have access to tide tables. Storm tide forecasts should be referenced to appropriate datums understood by local authorities. For many portions of the coast, this would be mean sea level although some areas use mean lower low water instead.

...Tornado impacts...

Any required statements on potential tornado and flood/flash flood threats, rip currents, beach erosion, high wind warnings inland, etc.

...Wind impacts...

Present winds and expected time of onset of Tropical Storm or Hurricane force winds. (The tropical cyclone forecast/advisory should be used as guidance.)

...Probability of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Conditions...

Information on probability of hurricane/typhoon/tropical storm conditions is optional.

...Next Update...

Time of next or final statement.

Routine HLSs may cease when the tropical cyclone is no longer a threat to an office's CWA.

All HLSs shall use a mass media standard text heading as illustrated in the following examples. Use the (Z) form of the Universal Generic Code.

Example: HLS by Office Expecting a Direct Hit from a Major Hurricane:

XXXHLSXXX

TTAA00 XXXX 232200

XXZ018>022-240100-

HURRICANE XXXXXXX LOCAL STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE XXXXXXXX

XXX PM EDT DAY MON Date Year

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE XXXX TAKING AIM ON SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

...Areas Affected...

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF DADE...BROWARD...GLADES...HENDRY...AND COLLIER COUNTIES OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN PREPARATION FOR HURRICANE XXXXX.

...Watches Warnings...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND KEYS INCLUDING DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND COLLIER COUNTY.

...Storm Information...

HURRICANE XXXXXX REMAINS EXTREMELY STRONG WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 150 MPH. AT 5 PM EDT XXXXXX WAS CENTERED 240 MILES EAST OF MIAMI AND MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 16 MPH. AT PRESENT XXXXXX IS COMPARABLE TO THE GREAT 1926 AND 1928 HURRICANES WHICH DEVASTATED SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.

...Precautionary Actions...

RESIDENTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA MUST TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY BEFORE NIGHTFALL. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND OTHER LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS IN DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES HAVE ORDERED AN EMERGENCY EVACUATION OF AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING BY HURRICANE TIDES FROM A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. COLLIER...GLADES...AND HENDRY COUNTY OFFICIALS WILL BE ISSUING SPECIFIC INSTRUCTIONS AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN. OFFICIALS OF THE FEDERAL EXECUTIVE BOARD ADVISE THAT ALL FEDERAL EMPLOYEES WITHOUT EMERGENCY RESPONSIBILITIES ARE EXCUSED FROM REPORTING FOR WORK UNTIL THIS EMERGENCY IS OVER. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO AND TV FOR INSTRUCTIONS AS TO WHEN TO RETURN TO WORK. MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS IN THESE COUNTIES AND THE COUNTIES OF DADE...COLLIER...AND BROWARD SHOULD FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS IF ORDERED TO EVACUATE. MANY OF THE DEATHS IN HURRICANES OCCUR IN MOBILE HOMES.

...Storm Surge and Tide impacts...

THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AS TIDAL STORM SURGES OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL SPREAD INLAND NEAR AND NORTH OF LANDFALL. TIDAL SURGE HEIGHTS MAY REACH 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN BISCAYNE BAY. THE FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL ROUTES IS IMMINENT.

...Wind Impacts...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BEGIN POUNDING DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TOWARD DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS XXXXXX MOVES INLAND AND LOSES SOME OF ITS INTENSITY. HIGH WINDS WILL SPREAD TO THE INTERIOR OF FLORIDA...IN SOME AREAS REACHING HURRICANE FORCE. HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE INLAND COUNTIES OF GLADES AND HENDRY.

...Next Update...

THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MIAMI FORECAST OFFICE OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 9 PM EDT. A RECORDING OF THE LAmanual XXXXXXX ADVISORY INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE BY CALLING...305-662-5702.

EXAMPLE: Hazard-Specific Statement Highlighting Critical Information:

XXXHLSXXX

TTAA00 XXXX 250345

XXZ008-010-012>014-DDHHMM

HURRICANE XXXXXX LOCAL STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE XXXXXXX XX

XXXX PM CDT Day Mon Date Year

...TORNADOES TOUCHDOWN IN ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH...

...Areas Affected...

ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH OFFICIALS CONFIRM THAT TORNADOES HAVE TOUCHED DOWN IN LA PLACE AND RESERVE BETWEEN 925 AND 935 PM CDT THIS EVENING. PRELIMINARY REPORTS INDICATE THAT FOUR PERSONS WERE TRAPPED IN MOBILE HOMES IN LA PLACE. FOUR HOMES WERE HEAVILY DAMAGED IN BELLE POINTE SUBDIVISION NEAR LA PLACE. THE RIVER PARISHES HOSPITAL IN LA PLACE WAS STRUCK...DAMAGED...BUT REMAINS OPEN.

...Tornado Impacts...

THIS REMAINS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. AS XXXXXX INTERACTS WITH THE COAST LINE...ADDITIONAL TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. THESE TORNADOES ARE SHORT LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO DETECT WITH RADAR. IF THREATENING WEATHER IS SIGHTED OR HEARD...GO TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

...Next Update...

AS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE...FURTHER STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED.

EXAMPLE: Short Term Forecast (NOWcast)

BHMNOWMOB

TTAA00 KMOB 192130

SHORT TERM FORECAST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL

430 PM CDT SAT AUG 19 1995

ALZ051>064-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-192330-

.NOW...

...HURRICANE GARY WILL MOVE ACROSS BALDWIN AND MOBILE COUNTIES BY 530 PM... SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE RAINBAND MOVES ACROSS. THE RAINBAND SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS CLARKE...WASHINGTON...AND GEORGE COUNTIES BY 6 PM. BUT PEOPLE IN THESE COUNTIES SHOULD EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

SCATTERED AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI THROUGH 6 PM. BANDS OF STRONG STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. EAST WINDS OF 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST WITH STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVIER RAINFALL NEAR THE RAINBANDS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.

$$

Example: Special Weather Statement

BHMSPSPNS

TTAA00 KBHM 261400

FLZ001>004-261600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENSACOLA FL

1000 AM EDT THU AUG 26 1992

...HURRICANE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...

HURRICANE OPHELIA...NOW 350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS...IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AT 5 MILES AN HOUR. THE PROBABILITY OF OPHELIA STRIKING PENSACOLA HAS INCREASED TO 12 PERCENT. THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND THE ALABAMA COAST HAVE PROBABILITIES IN THE 10 TO 12 PERCENT RANGE WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR THE REST OF THE GULF COAST. ACCORDINGLY...THE PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THAT GREAmanual ATTENTION SHOULD BE FOCUSED ON THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND ALABAMA COASTS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR THE NORTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN SOUTH ALABAMA. KEEP TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON OPHELIA.

EXAMPLE: Inland High Wind Watch

CAENPWCAE

TTAA00 KCAE 151430

SCZ001>050-162200-

INLAND HIGH WIND WATCH FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC

1030 AM EDT WED JUL 15 1995

...AN INLAND HIGH WIND WATCH FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CAROLINA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

HURRICANE JENNIFER IS HEADED FOR SOUTH CAROLINA. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT JENNIFER COULD MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN ON THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. JENNIFER IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND IS EXPECTED TO RETAIN WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WELL INLAND AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE TOWARD WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

IF JENNIFER CONTINUES AT ITS PRESENT STRENGTH, SUSTAINED HURRICANE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE WINDS SPREADING INLAND AS FAR AS COLUMBIA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT JENNIFER COULD STILL CONTAIN HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE MIDDAY

THURSDAY.

THIS WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR JENNIFER TO SPREAD WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH CAROLINA. IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME OR A HOME THAT AFFORDS LITTLE PROTECTION FROM FLYING GLASS AND DEBRIS...DEVELOP OPTIONS FOR ALTERNATIVE SHELTER NOW.

Example: Inland High Wind Warning

SATNPWHOU

TTAA00 KHGX 101030

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON-GALVESTON TX

600 AM CDT FRI SEP 10 1995

HURRICANE FRED...LOCATED 60 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TX AT 6 AM CDT...IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND NOON CDT ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FRED IS THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A NORTH NORTHWEST COURSE MOVING ACROSS HOUSTON AND REACHING THE SAN JACINTO NATIONAL FOREST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120 MPH SHOULD BEGIN SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE MORNING.

TXZ177>179-197>199-210>212-102200-

WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-COLORADO-

AUSTIN-WALLER-

...INLAND HIGH WIND WARNING FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 MPH BY 12 NOON AND 80 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 100 MPH BY MID AFTERNOON. 75 MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY AS FAR INLAND AS HUNTSVILLE...NAVASOTA...AND LAKE LIVINGSTON BY LATE AFTERNOON.

BE PREPARED FOR NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND WIRES. DO NOT CROSS DOWNED WIRES...WHICH MAY STILL BE LIVE.

$$

TXZ226-227-235-213-200-102200-

WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-HARRIS-LIBERTY-

...INLAND HIGH WIND WARNING FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...

WINDS FROM WHARTON TO HOUSTON AND LIBERTY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 MPH THIS MORNING AND 90 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 110 MPH BY MIDDAY...DECREASING TO 50 TO 60 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

FLYING DEBRIS WILL POSE A MAJOR THREAT TO ALL STRUCTURES IN THE WARNED AREA...ESPECIALLY GLASS FROM HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS IN DOWNTOWN HOUSTON. PEOPLE LIVING IN MOBILE HOMES AND THOSE CONCERNED ABOUT THE ABILITY OF THEIR HOMES TO WITHSTAND HURRICANE WINDS SHOULD MOVE TO A STRONG BUILDING OR SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. BE PREPARED FOR NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND WIRES. TAKE SHELTER IN SMALL INTERIOR ROOMS OR REINFORCED STRUCTURES.

$$

EXAMPLE: (Warning information in Public/Marine Forecasts) State Forecast (SFP)

RDUSFPNC

TTAA00 KRDU 182000

NCZALL-190800-

STATE FORECAST FOR NORTH CAROLINA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH/DURHAM NC

410 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 1991

...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COAST AND SOUNDS...

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS INCLUDING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS...

.TONIGHT...WINDS INCREASING TO HURRICANE FORCE OVER COASTAL AREAS BY MIDNIGHT AS HURRICANE BOB SKIRTS THE OUTER BANKS. DANGEROUS STORM SURGE CAUSING SERIOUS BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER BANKS AROUND MIDNIGHT AT THE TIME OF HIGHEST TIDE. TORRENTIAL RAINS AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST UNTIL MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TOWARD DAYBREAK. REMAINDER OF THE STATE...CLOUDY AND WINDY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SHOWERS WEST. LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST. HIGHS IN THE 80S.

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS IN THE 80S EXCEPT 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 80S. LOWS IN THE 60S EXCEPT 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.FRIDAY...HOT AND HUMID. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS IN THE 70S EXCEPT LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

APPENDIX E

TROPICAL CYCLONE ASSESSMENT AND WARNING PRODUCTS

AREA	WMO	AFOS
Caribbean	CA	#
North Atlantic and Caribbean	NT	AT
East Pacific	PZ	EP
Central Pacific	PA	CP
West Pacific	PW	WP
North Pacific	PN	#
West North Pacific	PQ	#
South Pacific	PS	#
Indian Ocean	IO	#
South Indian Ocean	XS	#

*

Issuing Office WMO CCCC

WFO HNL/CPHC - Honolulu PHNL

WFO Guam PGUM

JTWC - Pearl Harbor PGTW

NHC - Miami KNHC

NAVPACMETOCCEN - Naval Pacific

Metr. And Oceanography Center

- Pearl Harbor PHNC

NWWS

PRODUCT TITLES WMO HEADER AFOS HEADER BACKUP HEADERS

Tropical Weather Outlook

(Atlantic Basin) ABNT20 KNHC MIATWOAT NFDTWOAT

(Eastern Pacific) ABPZ20 KNHC MIATWOEP NFDTWOEP

* (Central Pacific) ABPA20 PHNL HNLTWOHNL MIATWOCP

(San Juan) SJUTWOSJU MIATWOSPN

Tropical Weather Discussion

(Atlantic Basin) AXNT20 KNHC MIATWDAT NFDTWDAT

(Eastern Pacific) AXPZ20 KNHC MIATWDEP NFDTWDEP

Tropical/Subtropical Cyclone

Public Advisory

(Atlantic Basin) WTNT31-35 KNHC MIATCPAT1-5 NFDTCPAT1-5

(Eastern Pacific) WTPZ31-35 KNHC MIATCPEP1-5 NFDTCPEP1-5

(Central Pacific) WTPA31-35 PHNL HNLTCPCP1-5 MIATCPCP1-5

(Western Pacific) WTPQ31-35 PGUM

Tropical Cyclone Strike Probabilities

(Atlantic Basin Only) WTNT71-75 KNHC MIASPFAT1-5 NFDSPFAT1-5

Tropical/Subtropical Cyclone

Forecast/Advisory

(Atlantic Basin) WTNT21-25 KNHC MIATCMAT1-5 NFDTCMAT1-5

(Eastern Pacific) WTPZ21-25 KNHC MIATCMEP1-5 NFDTCMEP1-5

(Central Pacific) WTPA21-25 PHNL HNLTCMCP1-5 MIATCMCP1-5

(Western Pacific) WTPN21-25 PGTW NMCTCMWP1-5 NMCTCPWP1-5

Tropical Cyclone Discussion WTNT41-45 KNHC MIATCDAT1-5 NFDTCDAT1-5

WTPZ41-45 KNHC MIATCDEP1-5 NFDTCDEP1-5

WTPA41-45 PHNL HNLTCDCP1-5 MIATCDCP1-5

Prognostic Reasoning of Warnings WDPN31-36 PGTW N/A N/A

for NW Pacific

Tropical Cyclone Position Estimate

(Atlantic Basin) WTNT51 KNHC MIATCEAT NFDTCEAT

(Eastern Pacific) WTPZ51 KNHC MIATCEEP NFDTCEEP

(Central Pacific) WTPA51 PHNL HNLTCECP MIATCECP

(Western North Pacific) WTPQ51-55 PGUM

Tropical Cyclone Position and

Intensity from Satellite Data

(NW Pacific) TPPN10 PGTW N/A N/A

(SW Pacific) TPPS10 PGTW N/A N/A

* (S Pacific East of 160E) TXPS10 PHNL N/A N/A

* (N central Pacific 140W-180) TXPN10 PHNL N/A N/A

(N Indian Ocean) TPIO10 PGTW N/A N/A

(S Indian Ocean) TPXS10 PGTW N/A N/A

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Message

* Issued by JTWC

(Northwest Pacific) WTPN21-25 PGTW N/A N/A

(Southwest Pacific) WTPS21-25 PGTW N/A N/A

(North Indian Ocean) WTIO21-25 PGTW N/A N/A

(South Indian Ocean) WTXS21-25 PGTW N/A N/A

* Issued by NAVPACMETOCCEN

(Southeast Pacific) WTPS21-25 PHNC N/A N/A

Tropical Cyclone Update

(Atlantic Basin) WTNT61 KNHC MIATCUAT NFDTCUAT

(Eastern Pacific) WTPZ61 KNHC MIATCUEP NFDTCUEP

(Central Pacific) WTPA61 PHNL HNLTCUCP MIATCUCP

Tropical Cyclone Warnings

* (Northwest Pacific) WTPN31-35 PGTW NMCTCPWP1-5 N/A

* (Southwest Pacific) WTPS31-35 PGTW N/A N/A

* (North Indian Ocean) WTIO31-35 PGTW N/A N/A

* (South Indian Ocean) WTXS31-35 PGTW N/A N/A

Special Tropical Disturbance Statement

(Atlantic Basin) WONT41 KNHC MIADSAAT NFDDSAAT

(Eastern Pacific) WOPZ41 KNHC MIADSAEP NFDDSAEP

(Central Pacific) WOPA41 PHNL HNLDSACP MIADSACP

(Western Pacific) ABPW10 PGTW N/A N/A

(Indian Ocean) ABIO10 PGTW N/A N/A

_____________________

N/A indicates currently none assigned.

NWWS

PRODUCT TITLES WMO HEADER AFOS HEADER BACKUP HEADERS

Tropical Weather Summary

(Atlantic Basin) ABNT30 KNHC MIATWSAT NFDTWSAT

(Eastern Pacific) ABPZ30 KNHC MIATWSEP NFDTWSEP

* (Central Pacific) ABPA30 PHNL HNLTWSHNL MIATWSCP

Satellite Interpretation Message

(Central Pacific) TBHW PHNL HNLSIMHI N/A

Satellite Tropical Discussion

*(Western North and South Pacific) TCPW10 PHNL HNLTWDPW0 N/A

*(Central North and South Pacific) TCPA10 PHNL HNLTWDPAO N/A

Satellite-Derived Rainfall

(Eastern Caribbean) TCCA22 KNHC MIASTDCCA N/A

(Central Caribbean) TCCA21 KNHC MIASTDECA N/A

(Western Caribbean) TCCA23 KNHC MIASTDWCA N/A

High Seas Forecast

(North Atlantic) FZNT01 KWBC NFDHSFAT1 NFDHSFAT1

(South Atlantic, Gulf of

Mexico, and Caribbean) FZNT01 KWBC MIAHSFAT2 MIAHSFAT2

(East Pacific [north]) FZPN01 KWBC NFDHSFEP1 NFDHSFEP1

(East Pacific [south]) FZPN02 KWBC MIAHSFEPI MIAHSFEPI

(East Pacific) FZPN03 KNHC MIAHSFEP2 MIAHSFEP2

(East Pacific) FZPN04 KNHC MIAHSFEP3 MIAHSFEP3

(North Central Pacific) FZPN10 PHNL HNLHSFNP N/A

(South Central Pacific) FZPS10 PHNL HNLHSFSP N/A

Storm Summary

(Conterminous US) ACUS42 KWBC NFDSCCNS1-5 NFDSCCNFD

___________________

N/A indicates currently none assigned.

NWWS

PRODUCT TITLES WMO HEADER AFOS HEADER BACKUP HEADERS

Aircraft Reconnaissance Messages

Routine Reconnaissance Report

(Atlantic) URNT10 KNHC MIAREPNT0 N/A

(Tropical Cyclone Report) URNT11 KNHC MIAREPNT1 N/A

(Dropsonde Report) UZNT13 KNHC MIAREPNT3 N/A

(Backup Trop. Cyc. Rpt [Atlantic]) URNT11 KBIX MIAREPNT1 N/A

(Backup Trop. Cyc. Rpt [Atlantic]) URNT13 KBIX MIAREPNT3 N/A

(Backup Trop. Cyc. Rpt [Pacific]) URPA11 PGTW MIAREPPA1 N/A

(Vortex Data Message) URNT12 KNHC MIAREPNT2 N/A

(Supplemental Vortex data Message) URNT14 KNHC MIAREPNT4 N/A

Tropical Cyclone Report

(Pacific) URPN11 KNHC MIAREPPN1 N/A

(Summer/Winter Reconnaissance NOUS42 KNHC MIAREPRPD N/A

POD [Atlantic/Pacific]) UZPN13 KNHC MIAREPPN3 N/A

URPN12 KNHC MIAREPPN2 N/A

URNT12 KNHC MIAREPNT2 N/A

URPA10 PGTW MIAREPPA0 N/A

URPA11 PGTW MIAREPPA1 N/A

URPA12 PGUA MIAREPPA2 N/A

UZPA13 PGUA MIAREPPA3 N/A

URPN10 KNHC MIAREPPN0 N/A

Hurricane Local Statement

(Atlantic) WWUS31 KCCC CCCHLSNNN N/A

___________________

N/A indicates currently none assigned.

* TROPICAL CYCLONE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE PRODUCTS:

PRODUCT TITLES WMO HEADER AFOS HEADER BACKUP HEADERS

(Atlantic Basin) WXHH01 KMIA MIACHGHUR

(Pacific Basin) WXHH01 KWBC MIACHGE77

(Atlantic Basn) WXHH04 KWBC SMCCHGQLM

APPENDIX F

OFFICIAL DEFINING POINTS *

FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES/WARNINGS

La Pesca, MX

Rio San Fernando, MX

Brownsville, TX

Brownsville, TX

Port Mansfield, TX

Baffin Bay, TX

Corpus Christi, TX

Baffin Bay, TX

Corpus Christi, TX

Port Aransas, TX

Port O'Connor, TX

Houston, TX

Port O'Connor, TX

Matagorda, TX

Sargent, TX

Freeport, TX

San Luis Pass, TX

High Island, TX

Lake Charles, LA

High Island, TX

Sabine Pass, TX

Cameron, LA

Intracoastal City, LA

Morgan City, LA

New Orleans, LA

Morgan City, LA

Grand Isle, LA

Mouth of Mississippi

River, LA

Mouth of Pearl River, LA

Pascagoula, MS

Mobile, AL

Pascagoula, MS

Pensacola, FL

Fort Walton Beach, FL

Destin, Fl

Tallahassee, FL

Destin, FL

Panama City, FL

Indian Pass, FL

Apalachicola, FL

Ochlockonee River, FL

St. Marks, FL

Aucilla River, FL

Steinhatchee River, FL

Suwanee River, FL

Tampa Bay, FL

Suwanee River, FL

Cedar Key, FL

Yankeetown, FL

Bayport, FL

Anclote Key, FL

Longboast Key, FL

Venice, FL

Boca Grande, FL

Fort Myers Beach, FL

Bonita Beach, FL

Miami, FL

Bonita Beach, FL

Everglades City, FL

East Cape Sable, Fl

Flamingo, FL

Dry Tortugas, Fl

Seven Mile Bridge, FL

Craig Key, FL

Angelfish Key, FL

Key Largo, FL

Florida City, FL

Golden Beach, FL

Hallandale, FL

Deerfield Beach, FL

* Boca Raton, FL

Lake Worth, FL

Jupiter Inlet, FL

Melbourne, FL

Jupiter Inlet, FL

Stuart, FL

Fort Pierce, FL

Vero Beach, FL

Sebastian Inlet, FL

Cocoa Beach, FL

Titusville, FL

New Smyna Beach, FL

Flagler Beach, FL

Jacksonville, FL

Flagler Beach, FL

St. Augustine, FL

Fernandina Beach, FL

Brunswick (Altamaha Sound), GA Charleston, SC

Brunswick (Altamaha Sound), GA

Savannah, GA

Edisto Beach, SC

* South Santee River, SC

Wilmington, NC

* South Santee River, SC

Murrells Inlet, SC

Little River Inlet, SC

Cape Fear, NC

Surf City, NC

Morehead City, NC

Surf City, NC

New River Inlet, NC

Bogue Inlet, NC

Cape Lookout, NC

Ocracoke Inlet, NC

Cape Hatteras, NC

Oregon Inlet, NC

(The inclusion of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds should be on a case-by-case basis).

* Currituck Beach Light

Wakefield, VA

* Currituck Beach Light, NC

* NC/VA State Line

Cape Charles Light, VA

* Parramore Island, VA

Chincoteague, VA

* Chesapeake Bay, New Point

Comfort,VA

* Chesapeake Bay, Windmill Point,VA

* Chesapeake Bay, Smith Point, VA

*Sterling, Va.

* Chesapeake Bay, Smith Point, VA

* Tidal Potomac, Cobb Island, MD

* Tidal Potomac, Indian Head, MD

* Chesapeake Bay, Drum Point, MD

* Chesapeake Bay, North Beach, MD

* Chesapeake Bay, Sandy Point, MD

* Chesapeake Bay, Pooles Island, MD Mt. Holly, NJ

Cape Henlopen, DE

Cape May, NJ

Great Egg Inlet, NJ

Little Egg Inlet, NJ

Manasquan Inlet, NJ

* Delaware Bay north/south of East

Point, NJ to Slaughter Beach, DE

New York City, NY

Sandy Hook, NJ

Fire Island Inlet, LI, NY

Moriches Inlet, LI, NY

Montauk Point, LI, NY

Port Jefferson Harbor, LI, NY

New Haven, CT

Watch Hill, RI

Boston, MA

Watch Hill, RI

Point Judith, RI

* Westport, MA

Woods Hole, MA

Chatham, MA

Plymouth, MA

Gloucester, MA

Merrimack River, MA

Portland, ME

Merrimack River, MA

Portsmouth, NH

Portland, ME

Rockland, ME

Bar Harbor, ME

Eastport, ME

APPENDIX G

ST	COUNTY	CAT 1		CAT 2		CAT 3		CAT 4		CAT 5	DATE
NOTE: All evacuation times for Texas should be used for general guidance purposes only.
TX	Cameron	6		6		11		13		13	5/92
TX	Willacy	6		6		11		13		13	5/92
TX	Kenedy	<1		<1		<1		1-2		1-2	5/92
TX	Kleberg (Inland)	1		1		1		6		6	8/89
	(N. Padre Island)	12		12		12		12		12	8/89
TX	Nueces (Western)	---		---		---		4		4	8/89
	(Corpus Christi Metro Area)	16		16		16		22		22	8/89
	(Mustang & North Padre Island)	12		12		12		12		12	8/89
TX	Aransas	11		11		11		13		13	8/89
TX	San Patricio	7		7		7		10		10	8/89
TX	Refugio	1		1		1		2		2	8/89
TX	Calhoun	---		---		---		6		6	6/91
TX	Victoria	---		---		---		6		6	6/91
TX	Jackson	---		---		---		2		2	6/91
TX	Matagorda	---		---		---		6		6	6/91
TX	Brazoria	---		---		---		16		16	6/91
TX	Galveston	---		---		30		30		30	6/91
TX	Harris	---		---		---		26		26	6/81
TX	Chambers	---		---		---		4		4	6/81
TX	Jefferson	---		---		---		24		24	9/83
TX	Orange	---		---		---		24		24	9/83
TX	Hardin	---		---		---		24		24	9/83
TX	Jasper	---		---		---		24		24	9/83
TX	Newton	---		---		---		24		24	9/83
NOTE: Background traffic conditions with a peak condition include a normal work-to-home movement in addition to the movement of evacuating vehicle.
LA	St Charles	5-10		5-10		27-30		31-33		35-38	5/92
LA	St John the Baptist	5-10		5-10		27-30		31-33		35-38	5/92
LA	St James	5-10		5-10		27-30		31-33		35-38	5/92
LA	Orleans (Off Peak)	5-10		14-16		24-31		37-39		42-44	5/92
	Orleans (Peak)	6-12		15-23		26-38		40-45		45-50	5/92
LA	Jefferson (Off Peak)	5-10		14-16		24-31		37-39		42-44	5/92
	Jefferson (Peak)	6-12		15-23		26-38		40-45		45-50	5/92
LA	Plaquemine (Off Peak)	5-10		14-16		24-31		37-39		42-44	5/92
	Plaquemine (Peak)	6-12		15-23		26-38		40-45		45-50	5/92
LA	St Bernard (Off Peak)	5-10		14-16		24-31		37-39		42-44	5/92
	St Bernard (Peak)	6-12		15-23		26-38		40-45		45-50	5/92
LA	St Tammany (Off Peak)	5-10		14-16		24-31		37-39		42-44	5/92
	St Tammany (Peak)	6-12		15-23		26-38		40-45		45-50	5/92
NOTE: Times include the effects of Grand Isle traffic from Jefferson Parish.
LA	LaFourche	6-9		11-12		11-12		13-14		13-14	5/92
NOTE: Longer times for the following counties reflect both slower response times and higher tourist occupancy.
MS	Hancock	6-9		6-9		9-11		9-11		9-11	1/87
MS	Harrison	8-10		8-10		11-13		14-16		14-16	1/87
MS	Jackson	8-10		8-10		11-13		14-16		14-16	1/87
NOTE: Longer times for the following counties reflect both slower response times and higher tourist occupancy.
AL	Mobile	13-16		13-16		15-18		15-18		15-18	9/91
AL	Baldwin	12-16		12-16		16-20		16-20		16-20	9/91
NOTE: Longer times for the following counties reflect both slower response times and higher tourist occupancy.
FL	Escambia	13-17		13-17		16-19		16-19		16-19	6/86
FL	Santa Rosa	7-11		7-11		8-13		8-13		8-13	6/86
FL	Okaloosa	13-17		13-17		15-19		15-19		15-19	6/86
FL	Walton	7-13		7-13		8-15		8-15		8-15	6/86
FL	Bay	22-30		22-30		26-34		26-34		26-34	6/86

NOTE: Longer times for the following counties reflect slower response times only.
FL	Gulf	11-21		11-21		12-24		12-24		12-24	1/92
FL	Franklin	11-24		11-24		13-30		13-30		13-30	1/92
FL	Wakulla	5-11		5-11		5-11		5-11		5-11	1/92
FL	Jefferson	5-11		5-11		5-11		5-11		5-11	1/92
FL	Leon (Inland)	5-11		5-11		7-11		7-11		7-11	1/92
FL	Gadsen (Inland)	5-11		5-11		5-11		5-11		5-11	1/92
FL	Liberty (Inland)	5-11		5-11		5-11		7-11		7-11	1/92
FL	Calhoun (Inland)	5-11		5-11		5-11		5-11		5-11	1/92
FL	Jackson (Inland)	5-11		5-11		5-11		5-11		5-11	1/92
NOTE: The following counties have no "official" evacuation clearance times.
FL	Taylor	---		---		---		---		---	-----
FL	Dixie	---		---		---		---		---	-----
NOTE: Longer lead times for the following counties reflect background traffic evacuating from other regions.
FL	Levy	14-20		14-20		15-41		16-42		17-43	11/89
FL	Citrus	13-23		14-23		17-42		18-43		19-43	11/89
FL	Hernando	14-27		14-28		18-44		17-43		19-45	11/89
NOTE: Longer times for the following counties reflect slower response times only.
FL	Pasco	11-16		11-16		19		19		19	11/92
FL	Pinellas	13-16		13-16		18-24		18-24		18-24	11/92
FL	Hillsboro	13-16		13-16		18-22		18-22		18-22	11/92
FL	Manatee	14		14		14-18		14-18		14-18	11/92
NOTE: Longer lead times for the following counties reflect no traffic management.
FL	Sarasota	6-9		6-9		8-10		10-13		10-13	11/91
FL	Charlotte	7-13		7-19		11-31		11-31		11-31	11/91
FL	Lee	9-13		18-27		23-31		23-31		23-31	11/91
NOTE: Slow response times based on normal summer occupancy (first time listed) to peak fall occupancy (second time listed) assuming 50 percent evacuation on non-surge population.
FL	Collier	12		10-17		13-20		14-20		14-20	11/91
NOTE: Longer times for the following counties reflect slower response times only.
FL	Monroe (Middle and Upper Keys)	11-17		11-17		19-27		19-27		19-27	6/91
FL	Monroe (Lower and Middle Keys)	11-17		11-17		21-30		21-30		21-30	6/91
FL	Monroe (All Keys)	17-25		17-25		29-38		29-38		29-38	6/91
NOTE: Slow response times based on normal summer occupancy (first time listed) to peak fall occupancy (second time listed) assuming 50 percent evacuation on non-surge population.
FL	Dade	28-33		46-52		46-52		71-81		71-81	9/92
FL	Broward	21		21		26		26		26	11/90
FL	Palm Beach	16		16		16		16		16	1/93

NOTE: Times for the following counties are based on specific hurricane landfall scenarios--not on Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge or Maximum Envelope Of Water models.
FL	Martin	7-11		7-11		9-17		9-17		9-17	7/92
FL	St. Lucie	8		8		14		14		14-20	1/93
FL	Indian River	12		12		12		12		12	1/93
NOTE: Longer times for the following counties reflect slower response times only.
FL	Brevard	8-12		8-12		8-12		8-12		8-12	11/90
FL	Volusia	5-10		5-10		9-17		9-17		9-17	11/89
FL	Putnam	4-9		4-9		4-9		4-9		4-9	12/84
FL	Flagler	4-9		4-9		4-9		4-9		4-9	-----
FL	St. Johns	4-10		4-10		15-17		15-17		15-17	12/84
FL	Duval	7-10		7-10		15-17		15-17		15-17	12/84
FL	Nassau	5-10		5-10		5-10		5-10		5-10	12/84
NOTE: Data for Georgia coastal areas were generated in 1988. Since that time, significant population density changes have occurred in certain vulnerable areas, especially Chatham and Camden Counties. The evacuation clearance times provided likely are underestimates. Updated information is being generated and will appear in a later version of this chapter. Clearance times listed pertain to Medium Response only.
GA	Chatham	(6)		6 (6)		7¼ (6½)		233/4 (18)		233/4 (18)	1988
GA	Liberty	6¼		6¼		6¼		6¼		6¼	1988
GA	Bryan	6¼		6¼ (6)		7¼ (6½)		24 (18¼)		24 (18¼)	1988
GA	Camden	6		6		6		12¼		12¼	1988
GA	McIntosh	6		6		6		6		6	1988
GA	Glynn	9 (83/4)		9 (83/4)		11 (10½)		12½ (113/4)		12½ (113/4)	1988
NOTE: Longer times for the following counties reflect both slower response times and higher tourist occupancy.
NC	Brunswick	6-10		6-10		6-10		6-10		6-10	11/86
NC	New Hanover	6-9		6-9		6-9		6-9		6-9	11/86
NC	Pender	4-9		4-9		4-9		4-9		4-9	11/86
NC	Craven	7-10		7-10		7-10		8-10		8-10	11/86
NC	Carteret	8-12		8-12		9-12		10-13		10-13	11/86
NC	Pamlico	4-9		4-9		4-9		4-9		4-9	11/86
NC	Onslow	9-12		9-12		9-12		9-13		9-13	11/86
NC	Washington	8-12		8-12		8-12		10-14		10-14	11/86
NC	Bertie	8-14		8-14		11-17		11-17		11-17	11/86
NC	Martin	10-14		10-14		12-16		12-16		12-16	11/86
NC	Beaufort	7-10		7-10		7-10		8-11		8-11	11/86
NC	Perquimans	5-9		5-9		7-11		7-11		7-11	11/86
NC	Chowan	5-10		5-10		8-12		8-12		8-12	11/86
NC	Currituck	5-11		5-11		5-11		6-13		6-13	11/86
NC	Camden	5-11		5-11		7-13		7-13		7-13	11/86
NC	Pasquotank	5-10		5-10		6-11		6-11		6-11	11/86
NC	Hyde (Mainland)	4-9		4-9		4-9		4-9		4-9	11/86
NC	Hyde (Ocracoke Island)	13-27		13-27		13-27		13-27		13-27	11/86
NC	Tyrrell	6-10		6-10		6-10		8-11		8-11	11/86
NC	Dare	6-12		6-12		6-12		7-13		7-13	11/86
SC	Jasper	7-9		7-9		11-12		11-12		11-12
SC	Beaufort	5-12		5-15		6-18		12-19		12-19
SC	Colleton	5-9		5-9		11-12		11-12		11-12
SC	Charleston	6-9		10-13		16-18		20-23		20-23
SC	Georgetown	5-10		5-10		6-10		10-14		10-14
SC	Horry	11-14		11-14		13-17		16-20		16-20
VA	(Category 5 not modelled)	10-25		10-25		16-27		19-27		N/A	3/92
VA	City of Portsmouth	3-9		3-9		3-9		5-9		N/A	3/92
VA	City of Newport News	10-14		10-14		20-24		20-24		N/A	3/92
VA	City of Chesapeake	3-9		5-9		5-9		9-11		N/A	3/92
VA	City of Suffolk	4-10		6-13		6-13		7-16		N/A	3/92
VA	City of Poquoson	3-9		5-9		5-9		5-9		N/A	3/92
	Category five not modelled)
VA	Northhampton	7-11		7-11		7-11		7-11		N/A	3/92
VA	Accomack	7-11		7-11		8-12		8-12		N/A	3/92
VA	York	10-13		10-13		17-21		17-21		N/A	3/92
VA	Gloucester	4-9		4-9		7-14		7-14		N/A	3/92
VA	Matthews	2-9		2-9		2-9		2-9		N/A	3/92
VA	Middlesex	2-9		2-9		2-9		2-9		N/A	3/92
VA	Lancaster	1-9		1-9		1-9		1-9		N/A	3/92
VA	Richmond	1-9		1-9		1-9		1-9		N/A	3/92
VA	Northumberland	1-9		1-9		1-9		1-9		N/A	3/92
VA	Westmoreland	1-9		1-9		1-9		1-9		N/A	3/92
	(Category five not modelled)
MD	Worchester	4-15		4-15		4-23		4-23		N/A	3/92
MD	Anne Arundel	9-23		9-23		10-25		10-25		N/A	3/92
MD	Caroline	13-20		13-20		13-20		13-20		N/A	3/92
MD	Dorchester	6-22		8-25		8-25		8-25		N/A	3/92
MD	Kent	4-9		4-9		4-9		4-9		N/A	3/92
MD	Queen Anne's	12-33		12-33		15-38		15-38		N/A	3/92
MD	St. Mary's	4-9		4-9		4-9		4-9		N/A	3/92
MD	Somerset	7-13		11-15		11-15		12-15		N/A	3/92
MD	Talbot	10-38		14-45		14-45		14-45		N/A	3/92
MD	Wicomico	8-33		11-37		11-37		11-37		N/A	3/92
	(Category five not modelled)
DE	Sussex	10-38		10-38		11-45		11-45		N/A	3/92
DE	Kent	10-24		10-24		11-25		11-25		N/A	3/92
DE	New Castle	11-25		11-25		12-26		12-26		N/A	3/92
	(Category five not modelled)
NJ	Cape May	7-31		7-31		10-36		10-36		N/A	3/92
NJ	Atlantic	9-24		9-24		11-26		11-26		N/A	3/92
NJ	Ocean	7-13		7-13		7-19		7-19		N/A	3/92
NJ	Monmouth	6-10		6-10		7-10		7-10		N/A	3/92
NJ	Cumberland	4-9		4-9		4-9		4-9		N/A	3/92
NJ	Salem	4-9		4-9		4-9		4-9		N/A	3/92
NJ	Gloucester	4-9		4-9		4-9		4-9		N/A	3/92
NJ	Camden	4-9		4-9		4-9		4-9		N/A	3/92
NJ	Burlington	4-9		4-9		4-9		4-9		N/A	3/92
NJ	Middlesex	4-9		4-9		5-9		5-9		N/A	3/92
NJ	Union	4-9		4-9		4-9		4-9		N/A	3/92
NJ	Essex	4-9		4-10		4-10		4-10		N/A	3/92
NJ	Hudson	4-9		6-11		6-11		6-11		N/A	3/92
NJ	Bergen	4-9		4-9		4-9		4-9		N/A	3/92
	(Category five not modelled)
NY	Suffolk	7-14		7-14		12-18		12-18		N/A	3/92
NY	Fire Island	6-11		6-11		6-11		6-11		N/A	3/92
NY	Nassau	11-18		11-18		14-21		14-21		N/A	3/92
NY	Queens	7-12		7-12		11-16		11-16		N/A	3/92
NY	Manhattan	4-9		4-9		4-9		4-9		N/A	3/92
NY	Kings	5-10		6-11		10-15		12-17		N/A	3/92
NY	Richmond	4-9		4-9		7-12		7-12		N/A	3/92
NY	Bronx	4-9		4-9		4-9		4-9		N/A	3/92
NY	Westchester	4-9		4-9		4-9		4-9		N/A	3/92
	Puerto Rico (Northern, Eastern, and Southern)	---		---		8-12		8-12		8-12	1/89
	U.S. Virgin Islands (St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix)	---		---		8-12		8-12		8-12	1/89
Evacuation time estimates are presently not available for any counties in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, or Maine.

APPENDIX H