NOUS41 KWBC 051700
AAB
PNSWSH
Technical
Implementation Notice 14-47 Amended
National Weather
Service Headquarters Washington DC
1200 PM EST Fri
Dec 5 2014
To: Subscribers:
-Family of Services
-NOAA Weather Wire Service
-Emergency Managers Weather
Information Network
-NOAAPORT
-Other NWS Partners, Users and
Employees
From: Tim McClung
Science Plans Branch Chief
Office of Science and Technology
Subject: Amended: Changes to GFS-based Model Output
Statistics (MOS)
Guidance effective January 14, 2015
Amended to change
the implementation date from Wednesday,
January 7, 2015
to Wednesday, January 14, 2015
On or about
Wednesday, January 14, 2015, beginning with the 1200
Coordinated
Universal Time (UTC) model run, the NWS
Meteorological
Development Laboratory (MDL) will implement a
refresh of the Global Forecast System (GFS)-based
Model Output
Statistics (MOS)
guidance to coincide with the GFS model
upgrade.
These changes will also impact the Localized Aviation
MOS
Program (LAMP) products beginning with the 1600 UTC cycle.
MDL has created a
comparison webpage for the short-range and
extended-range GFS-based MOS text bulletins. The following link
will be active until on or about January 14,
2015:
http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~mos/mos/gfsmos_eval/moscomp.php
This update will
include the following changes to GFS-based MOS
text and BUFR products:
1. Updated cool
season equations for the short-range (days 1-4)
MOS text and BUFR
messages from the 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800
UTC model
runs. The updates will include the
following
elements:
Daytime Maximum
and Nighttime Minimum Temperature
2-meter
Temperature
2-meter Dewpoint Temperature
Wind Speed
Wind Direction
Conditional
Probability of Freezing Precipitation
Conditional
Probability of Frozen Precipitation
Precipitation
Type Best Category
24-h Categorical
Snowfall Amount
2. Updated cool
season equations for the extended-range (days 1-
7) MOS text and
BUFR messages from the 0000 and 1200 UTC model
runs. The
updates will include the following elements:
Daytime Maximum
and Nighttime Minimum Temperature
2-meter
Temperature
2-meter Dewpoint Temperature
Wind Speed
Wind Direction
Conditional
Probability of Freezing Precipitation Occurring
(12-h)
Conditional
Probability of Snow Occurring (12-h)
Conditional
Probability of Rain/Snow Mix Occurring (12-h)
Precipitation
Type Best Category (12-h)
24-h Categorical Snowfall
Amount
3. Updated cool
season maximum and minimum temperature equations
for all cycles of the short-range and
extended-range MOS COOP
text message.
4. Updated cool
season equations for the probability of
precipitation occurrence on the hour (PoPO)
and the probability
of precipitation occurrence in a 3-h period
(PoPO3) for all
cycles of the short-range (days 1-4) MOS BUFR
message.
5. Due to changes
in reporting frequencies at some observing
sites, some MOS stations no longer report
sufficiently and some
stations now have sufficient reports for statistical
calibration. As a
result, NWS will remove 15 stations and add
339 stations to
the short-range and extended-range GFS MOS text
bulletins (known by their AWIPS IDs MAV and MEX) and
BUFR
messages. The NWS will change the identifier used for
one
station in the GFS MOS text bulletins and BUFR
messages:
Tazewell City VA
will change from K6V3 to KJFZ. This
station
has been included in the add and remove counts
stated above.
6. NWS will
remove 38 stations and add one station to the GFS
MOS marine text
message (known by the AWIPS ID MMG) and BUFR
message.
7. NWS will
remove 152 stations and add 197 stations to the GFS
MOS River
Forecast Center SHEF message (known by its AWIPS ID
FTP).
8. NWS will
remove three stations from the short-range and
extended-range GFS MOS Canadian text messages.
9. NWS will
remove 1468 stations from the short-range and
extended-range GFS MOS COOP messages. These removed stations
have closed, stopped reporting, or do not contain
sufficient
cases to develop a stable equation. COOP sites
influence the
Gridded
MOS analysis for maximum and minimum temperature. The
removal of these COOP sites is not expected to
adversely impact
the quality of the Gridded MOS maximum and
minimum temperature
guidance.
10. Stations will
be added to existing regional equations for
the following elements in the short-range and
extended-range MOS
text and BUFR products:
Sky Cover
Probability of
Precipitation
Quantitative
Precipitation
Probability of a
Thunderstorm
Conditional
Probability of a Severe Thunderstorm
Ceiling Height
Visibility
Obstruction to
Vision
These changes
will slightly alter the format of the MAV, MEX,
MMG, and FTP
messages because lines will be added or removed to
accommodate the addition/removal of stations. The communication
identifiers for the MOS text and BUFR products affected
by these
changes are shown in the tables below.
Due to a shorter
sample of cool season retrospective model data
being available for the 0600 and 1800 UTC cycles,
users are
advised that the MOS guidance for these cycles is
not tuned as
well to the new version of the GFS and may be
somewhat degraded.
In addition,
guidance for Mesonet sites was not updated and as a
result may be degraded. Until guidance for Mesonet stations can
be re-developed, steps are being taken to
reduce the influence
of these sites on the Gridded MOS analysis for
temperature and
wind. Text-based MOS products are not produced
for Mesonet
sites.
A web page
outlining the station changes and equation updates is
available at:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/2014refresh/gfsmos2014.php
This update will
include the following changes to GFS-based LAMP
text and BUFR products:
1. NWS will
remove 15 stations from the LAMP text bulletin
(known by the AWIPS ID LAV) and BUFR messages. In addition,
the
NWS will change
the identifier used for one station in the LAMP
text bulletins and BUFR messages: Tazewell City VA will change
from K6V3 to KJFZ. As such, K6V3 is included in the list of the
15 stations being
removed, and KJFZ is being added to the text
bulletin and BUFR messages. No other stations are being added
to the LAMP text bulletins at this time.
2. The GFS MOS
changes above will slightly alter the format of
the LAV messages because lines will be added in
response to
additions or removals of GFS MOS guidance for some
elements.
The communication
identifiers for the LAMP text and BUFR
products affected by these changes are shown in the
tables
below.
A web page
outlining the LAMP station changes is available at:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/gfslamp/docs/change_notice_Dec2014.shtml
Table 1:
Communication identifiers for the GFS-based MOS public
text products affected by the changes: For Air
Force MOS
messages with WMO headers FOUS30 and FEUS30, FXX =
F01...F29.
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
(SHORT RANGE) (EXTENDED RANGE)
-------------------- ----------------------
FOPA20 KWNO MAVPA0
FEPA20 KWNO MEXPA0
FOUS21 KWNO MAVNE1
FEUS21 KWNO MEXNE1
FOUS22 KWNO MAVSE1
FEUS22 KWNO MEXSE1
FOUS23 KWNO MAVNC1
FEUS23 KWNO MEXNC1
FOUS24 KWNO MAVSC1
FEUS24 KWNO MEXSC1
FOUS25 KWNO MAVRM1
FEUS25 KWNO MEXRM1
FOUS26 KWNO MAVWC0
FEUS26 KWNO MEXWC0
FOUS30 KWNO MAVFXX
FEUS30 KWNO MEXFXX
FOAK37 KWNO MAVAJK
FEUS37 KWNO MEXAJK
FOAK38 KWNO MAVAFC
FEUS38 KWNO MEXAFC
FOAK39 KWNO MAVAFG
FEUS39 KWNO MEXAFG
Table
2. Communication
identifiers for the GFS-based Marine MOS
text products affected by the changes
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
----------- --------
FQPA20 KWNO MMGHI1
FQUS21 KWNO MMGNE1
FQUS22 KWNO MMGSE1
FQUS23 KWNO MMGGL1
FQUS24 KWNO MMGGF1
FQUS25 KWNO MMGNW1
FQUS26 KWNO MMGSW1
FQAK37 KWNO MMGAK1
Table
3. Communication
identifiers for the GFS-based River
Forecast Center
MOS text products affected by the changes
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
----------- --------
FOUS12 KWNO FTPCIN
FOUS12 KWNO FTPHFD
FOUS12 KWNO FTPKRF
FOUS12 KWNO FTPMSR
FOUS12 KWNO FTPPTR
FOUS12 KWNO FTPRHA
FOUS12 KWNO FTPRSA
FOUS12 KWNO FTPSLR
FOUS12 KWNO FTPTUR
FOAK12 KWNO FTPACR
Table
4. Communication
identifiers for the GFS-based Canadian
MOS text products
affected by the changes
WMO HEADING WMO HEADING
(SHORT RANGE) (EXTENDED RANGE)
----------- -----------
FOCN20 KWNO FECN21 KWNO
Table
5. Communication
identifiers for the GFS-based MOS BUFR
products affected by the changes
WMO HEADING WMO HEADING
REGION
(SHORT RANGE) (EXTENDED RANGE)
----------- -----------
------------------
JSML30 KWNO JSMT30 KWNO
PACIFIC REGION
JSML31 KWNO JSMT31 KWNO
NORTHEAST CONUS
JSML32 KWNO JSMT32 KWNO
SOUTHEAST CONUS
JSML33 KWNO JSMT33 KWNO
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
JSML34 KWNO JSMT34 KWNO
SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS
JSML35 KWNO JSMT35 KWNO
ROCKY MOUNTAIN CONUS
JSML36 KWNO JSMT36 KWNO
WEST COAST CONUS
JSML37 KWNO JSMT37 KWNO
ALASKA
Table 6:
Communication identifiers for the GFS-based LAMP public
text product affected by the changes
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
----------- --------
FOUS11 KWNO LAVUSA
Table 7:
Communication identifiers for the GFS-based LAMP BUFR
products affected by the changes
WMO HEADING REGION
------------ ---------------
JSMF10 KWNO PACIFIC REGION
JSMF11 KWNO NORTHEAST CONUS
JSMF12 KWNO SOUTHEAST CONUS
JSMF13 KWNO NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
JSMF14 KWNO SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS
JSMF15 KWNO ROCKY MOUNTAIN CONUS
JSMF16 KWNO WEST COAST CONUS
JSMF17 KWNO ALASKA
For questions
regarding the updates to the GFS MOS guidance and
station changes please contact:
Phil Shafer
MDL/Silver Spring, Maryland
301-427-9488
or
Kathryn Gilbert
MDL/Silver Spring, Maryland
301-427-9475
For questions
regarding the changes to LAMP guidance please contact:
Judy Ghirardelli
MDL/Silver Spring, Maryland
301-427-9496
Links to the MOS
products and descriptions are online at:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop
NWS National
Technical Implementation Notices are online at:
http://www.weather.gov/os/notif.htm
$$