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NAM NMM MOS Prototype Evaluation

New MOS forecast equations based on output from NCEP's North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) have been developed for selected weather elements, namely Temperature, Dewpoint, Max and Min Temperature, Probability of Precipitation (POP), and wind speed and direction. The tables below give the results of cool- and warm-season comparative verications for three configurations - the original eta MOS system (ETA), the eta MOS equations applied to the current NAM model (ETAonNMM), and new NAM MOS system (NMM). In most cases the new NAM MOS system performed best.
More Details

The columns with a blue heading are cool season scores. The columns with a red heading are warm season scores.

Maximum Temperature
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
All sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
Maximum Temperature
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
All sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
Minimum Temperature
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
All sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
Minimum Temperature
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
All sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
2-m Temperature
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
All sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
2-m Temperature
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
All sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
Dew Point Temperature
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
All sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
Dew Point Temperature
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
All sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
12-hr POP
All sites Brier Score
12-hr POP
All sites Brier Score
Wind Speed
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
All sites Heidke Skill Score
CONUS Heidke Skill Score
Alaska sites Heidke Skill Score
Wind Speed
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
All sites Heidke Skill Score
CONUS Heidke Skill Score
Alaska sites Heidke Skill Score
Wind Direction
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
All sites % of errors < 30 degs
CONUS % of errors < 30 degs
Alaska % of errors < 30 degs
Wind Direction
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
All sites % of errors < 30 degs
CONUS % of errors < 30 degs
Alaska % of errors < 30 degs

National Weather Service
Office Of Science and Technology
Meteorological Development Laboratory
Statistical Modeling Branch
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
Page last modified: 10 March 2008
Page Author: MOS Web Team
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