Explanation of Short-Range Guidance and Development

The mission of the short-range development team is to develop automated techniques for predicting weather elements 6 to 84 hours in advance. The weather elements include temperature, precipitation, thunderstorms, wind, clouds, ceiling height, visibility, obstruction to vision, sunshine, and snowfall.

Current Operational Products: text messages, graphics, GRIB and BUFR links

• GFS MOS (6-84h) Products
• NAM MOS (6-84h) Products
• NGM MOS (6-60h) Products To be removed March 3, 2009
  

Explanations of the Current Products:

GFS-Based MOS is currently available for projections of 6 through 84 hours in advance, for about 1580 sites in the United States, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

• Table of GFS-based MOS weather element definitions
• Table of proposed forecast projections for the GFS-based MOS guidance

NAM-Based MOS is currently available for projections of 6 through 84 hours in advance, for about 1680 sites in the continental United States.

• More details about the NAM MOS system.

NGM-Based MOS is available for over 600 sites in the contiguous U.S. and Alaska for forecast projections from 6 to 60 hours.

• Detailed text description of the NGM-Based MOS system
• Interpretation of the NGM-Based MOS Message ---The Green Card
  

Documentation and References:

• Our current work status is outlined in our Quarterly Progress Report.
• For more information on the NGM and AVN models, visit NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center.
• Current research articles
• Technical Procedures Bulletin 408: NGM-Based MOS Guidance the FOUS14/FWC Message, available from the Office Of Meteorology.
• Related Research Papers
• MOS Frequently Asked Questions

Research and Development Activities - Future Products: