North American Multi-Model Ensemble

NMME (North-American Multi-Model Ensemble) is to improve intra-seasonal to interannual (ISI) operational predictions based on the leading US and Canada climate models.



NMME Overview Paper

Ben P. Kirtman, Dughong Min, Johnna M. Infanti, James L. Kinter, III, Daniel A. Paolino, Qin Zhang, Huug van den Dool, Suranjana Saha, Malaquias Pena Mendez, Emily Becker, Peitao Peng, Patrick Tripp, Jin Huang, David G. DeWitt, Michael K. Tippett, Anthony G. Barnston, Shuhua Li, Anthony Rosati, Siegfried D. Schubert, Michele Rienecker, Max Suarez, Zhao E. Li, Jelena Marshak, Young-Kwon Lim, Joseph Tribbia, Kathleen Pegion, William J. Merryfield, Bertrand Denis, and Eric F. Wood, 2014: The North American multimodel ensemble: phase-1 seasonal-to-interannual prediction; phase-2 toward developing intraseasonal prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 585–601.


Data Analyses and Applications

Emily Becker, Huug van den Dool, and Qin Zhang, 2014: Predictability and forecast skill in NMME. J. Climate, 27, 5891–5906.  doi:

Bruce Cornuelle, James Hansen, Benjamin Kirtman, Scott Sandgathe, and Steve Warren, 2014: Issues and challenges with using ensemble-based prediction to probe the weather–climate interface. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, ES213–ES215.  doi:

Johnna M. Infanti and Ben P. Kirtman, 2014: Southeastern U.S. rainfall prediction in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. J. Hydrometeor, 15, 529–550. doi:

Arun Kumar, Peitao Peng, and Mingyue Chen, 2014: Is there a relationship between potential and actual skill?. Mon. Wea. Rev.142, 2220–2227.  doi:

Sarah M. Larson and Ben P. Kirtman, 2014: The Pacific meridional mode as an ENSO precursor and predictor in the North American multimodel ensemble. J. Climate, 27, 7018–7032. doi:

Haiqin Li, Vasubandhu Misra, 2014: Global seasonal climate predictability in a two tiered forecast system. part II: boreal winter and spring seasons. Climate Dyn., 42, 1449–1468. doi:

Hosmay Lopez and Ben P. Kirtman, 2014: WWBs, ENSO predictability, the spring barrier and extreme events. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 119, 10,114–10,138. doi:

Vasubandhu Misra, and H. Li, 2014: The seasonal climate predictability of the Atlantic Warm Pool and its teleconnections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 661–666, doi:

Vasubandhu Misra, H. Li, Z. Wu, and S. Dinapoli, 2014: Global seasonal climate predictability in a two tiered forecast system: part I: boreal summer and fall seasons. Climate Dyn., 42, 1425–1448.  doi:

Kingtse C. Mo and Dennis P. Lettenmaier, 2014: Hydrologic prediction over the Conterminous United States using the National Multi-Model Mnsemble. J. Hydrometeor, 15, 1457–1472.  doi:

Luis Ricardo Lage Rodrigues, Javier García-Serrano, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes, 2014: Seasonal forecast quality of the West African monsoon rainfall regimes by multiple forecast systems, J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 119,7908–7930. doi:

Shraddhanand Shukla, Christopher Funk and Andrew Hoell,2014: Using constructed analogs to improve the skill of National Multi-Model Ensemble March–April–May precipitation forecasts in equatorial East Africa. Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 094009 (9pp).

Jingzhi Su, Baoqiang Xiang, Bin Wang and Tim Li, 2014: Abrupt termination of the 2012 Pacific warming and its implication on ENSO prediction. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 9058–9064. doi:

Stephan Thober, Juliane Mai, Matthias Zink and Luis Samaniego, 2014: Stochastic temporal disaggregation of monthly precipitation for regional gridded data sets. Water Resour. Res., 50, 8714–8735.

Di Tian, Christopher J. Martinez, Wendy D. Graham, and Syewoon Hwang, 2014: Statistical downscaling multimodel forecasts for seasonal precipitation and surface temperature over the southeastern United States. J. Climate, 27, 8384–8411. doi:

Hailan Wang, Siegfried Schubert, Randal Koster, Yoo-Geun Ham, and Max Suarez, 2014: On the role of SST forcing in the 2011 and 2012 extreme U.S. heat and drought: A study in contrasts. J. Hydrometeor., 15, 1255-1273.

Hui Wang, 2014: Evaluation of monthly precipitation forecasting skill of the National Multi-model Ensemble in the summer season. Hydrological Processes, 28, 4472–4486.  doi:

Model and System Improvements

Timothy DelSole, Jyothi Nattala and Michael K. Tippett, 2014: Skill improvement from increased ensemble size and model diversity. Geophys. Res. Lett.,41(20), 7331-7342. doi:

Timothy DelSole and Michael K. Tippett, 2014: Comparing forecast skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 4658–4678. 

Suranjana Saha, Shrinivas Moorthi, Xingren Wu, Jiande Wang, Sudhir Nadiga, Patrick Tripp, David Behringer, Yu-Tai Hou, Hui-ya Chuang, Mark Iredell, Michael Ek, Jesse Meng, Rongqian Yang, Malaquías Peña Mendez, Huug van den Dool, Qin Zhang, Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Emily Becker, 2014: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2. J. Climate, 27, 2185–2208. doi:

G. A. Vecchi, T. Delworth, R. Gudgel, S. Kapnick, A. Rosati, A. T. Wittenberg, F. Zeng, W. Anderson, V. Balaji, K. Dixon, L. Jia, H.-S. Kim, L. Krishnamurthy, R. Msadek, W. F. Stern, S. D. Underwood, G. Villarini, X. Yang, and S. Zhang, 2014: On the Seasonal Forecasting of Regional Tropical Cyclone Activity. J. Climate, 27, 7994–8016.

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