North American Multi-Model Ensemble

NMME (North-American Multi-Model Ensemble) is to improve intra-seasonal to interannual (ISI) operational predictions based on the leading US and Canada climate models.



Data Analyses and Applications

Antonietta Capotondi, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Matthew Newman, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Jin-Yi Yu, Pascale Braconnot, Julia Cole, Boris Dewitte, Benjamin Giese, Eric Guilyardi, Fei-Fei Jin, Kristopher Karnauskas, Benjamin Kirtman, Tong Lee, Niklas Schneider, Yan Xue, and Sang-Wook Yeh, 2015: Understanding ENSO diversity. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.96, 921–938.  doi:

Yoo-Geun Ham and Jong-Seong Kug, 2015: Improvement of ENSO simulation based on intermodel diversity. J. Climate, 28, 998–1015. doi:

Johnna M. Infanti, Ben P. Kirtman, 2015: North American rainfall and temperature prediction response to the diversity of ENSO. Clim. Dyn., e-View. doi:

Hye-Mi Kim, Edmund K. M. Chang, and Minghua Zhang, 2015: Statistical-dynamical seasonal forecast for tropical cyclones affecting New York State. Wea. Forecasting, 30, 295-307.  doi:

Ben Kirtman, 2015: Current status of ENSO prediction and predictability. US CLIVAR VARIATIONS, 13, 10-15.

Sarah M. Larson and Ben P. Kirtman, 2015: Revisiting ENSO coupled instability theory and SST error growth in a fully coupled model. J. Climate, 28, 4724–4742.  doi:

Shuyan Liu, Julian X. L. Wang, Xin-Zhong Liang, and Vernon Morris, 2015: A hybrid approach to improving the skills of seasonal climate outlook at the regional scale. Clim. Dyn., 1-12. doi:

Feng Ma, Aizhong Ye, Xiaoxue Deng, Zheng Zhou, Xiaojie Liu, Qingyun Duan, Jing Xu, Chiyuan Miao, Zhenhua Di, and Wei Gong, 2015: Evaluating the skill of NMME seasonal precipitation ensemble predictions for 17 hydroclimatic regions in continental China. Int. J. Climatol.. doi:

Feng Ma, Xing Yuan and Aizhong Ye, 2015: Seasonal drought predictability and forecast skill over China, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 8264-8275. doi:

Kingtse C. Mo and Bradfield Lyon, 2015: Global meteorological drought prediction using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. J. Hydrometeor., 16, 1409–1424. doi:

Andrew W. Robertson, Arun Kumar, Malaquias Peņa, and Frederic Vitart, 2015: Improving and promoting subseasonal to seasonal prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, ES49–ES53. doi:

Joshua K. Roundy, Xing Yuan, John Schaake, and Eric F. Wood, 2015: A framework for diagnosing seasonal prediction through canonical event analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 2404–2418. doi:

Richard Seager, Martin Hoerling, Siegfried Schubert, Hailan Wang, Bradfield Lyon, Arun Kumar, Jennifer Nakamura, and Naomi Henderson, 2015: Causes of the 2011–14 California drought. J. Climate, 28, 6997–7024.

Shraddhanand Shukla, Mohammad Safeeq, Amir AghaKouchak, Kaiyu Guan and Chris Funk, 2015: Temperature impacts on the water year 2014 drought in California. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 4384–4393.

Md. Safat Sikder, Xiaodong Chen, Faisal Hossain, Jason B. Roberts, Franklin Robertson, C K Shum, Francis J Turk, 2015: Are General Circulation Models Ready for Operational Streamflow Forecasting for Water Management in Ganges and Brahmaputra River basins? J. Hydrometeoro., e-View, doi:

Wassila M. Thiaw and Vadlamani B. Kumar, 2015: NOAA’s African desk: twenty years of developing capacity in weather and climate forecasting in Africa. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 737–753. doi:

Stephan Thober, Rohini Kumar, Justin Sheffield, Juliane Mai, David Schäfer, Luis Samaniego, 2015: Seasonal soil moisture drought prediction over Europe using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 2329-2344.  doi:

Eric F. Wood, Siegfried D. Schubert, Andrew W. Wood, Christa D. Peters-Lidard, Kingtse C. Mo, Annarita Mariotti, and Roger S. Pulwarty, 2015: Prospects for advancing drought understanding, monitoring, and prediction. J. Hydrometeor., 16, 1636–1657.  doi:

Xing Yuan, Joshua K. Roundy, Eric F. Wood, and Justin Sheffield, 2015: Seasonal forecasting of global hydrologic extremes: system development and evaluation over GEWEX basins. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 1895-1912.

Lixia Zhang and Tianjun Zhou, 2015: Drought over East Asia: A review. J. Climate28, 3375–3399.

Xianliang Zhang, Zhe Xiong, Xuezhen Zhang, Ying Shi, Jiyuan Liu, Quanqin Shao, and Xiaodong Yan, 2015: Using multi-model ensembles to improve the simulated effects of land use/cover change on temperature: a case study over northeast China. Clim. Dyn., 1-14. doi:

Jieshun Zhu, Arun Kumar, Hui Wang, and Bohua Huang, 2015: Sea surface temperature predictions in NCEP CFSv2 using a simple ocean initialization scheme. Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 3176–3191. doi:

Model and System Improvements

Anthony G. Barnston, Michael K. Tippett, Huug M. van den Dool, and David A. Unger, 2015: Toward an improved multimodel ENSO prediction. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 54, 1579–1595.  doi:

Timothy DelSole, Michael K. Tippett, 2015: Forecast comparison based on random walks. Mon. Wea. Rev., e-View.

Liwei Jia, Xiaosong Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Richard G. Gudgel, Thomas L. Delworth, Anthony Rosati, William F. Stern, Andrew T. Wittenberg, Lakshmi Krishnamurthy, Shaoqing Zhang, Rym Msadek, Sarah Kapnick, Seth Underwood, Fanrong Zeng, Whit G. Anderson, Venkatramani Balaji, and Keith Dixon, 2015: Improved seasonal prediction of temperature and precipitation over land in a high-resolution GFDL climate model. J. Climate, 28, 2044–2062. doi:

H. Murakami, G. A. Vecchi, S. Underwood, T. Delworth, A.T. Wittenberg, W. Anderson, J. -H. Chen, R. Gudgel, L. Harris, S. -J. Lin, F. Zeng, 2015: Simulation and prediction of category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the high-resolution GFDL HiFLOR coupled climate model. J. Climate; e-View. doi:

Rajesh R. Shrestha, Markus A. Schnorbus, and Alex J. Cannon, 2015: A dynamical climate model–driven hydrologic prediction system for the Fraser River, canada. J. Hydrometeor., 16, 1273–1292. doi:

Xing Yuan, Eric F. Wood, and Zhuguo Ma, 2015: A review on climate-model-based seasonal hydrologic forecasting: physical understanding and system development. WIREs Water, 2, 523–536. doi:

2017    2016    2015    2014    2012-13