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Diagnostics and Prediction
Research Advancement 37th NOAA CDPW Contributions The current state of Arctic sea ice by Gregory J. Deemer, and Co-authors The influence of teleconnections on synoptic-scale circulation patterns affecting western Canadian water resources by B. W. Newton, T. D. Prowse, and B. R. Bonsal The multivariate PNA index: A new index for identifying MJO impacts over North America by Carl J. Schreck III, and David Margolin Combining sub-seasonal and seasonal precipitation forecasts over Indonesia by Andrew W. Robertson, and Co-authors A teleconnection between geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic and precipitation in the Sahel region of Africa by Daniel Barandiaran and Shih-Yu Wang The signature of the stratospheric Brewer-Dobson circulation in tropospheric clouds by Ying Li and David W. J. Thompson Is global warming changing the ENSO precursor in the Western North Pacific? by Shih-Yu Wang, Michelle L’Heureux, and Jin-Ho Yoon The equal frequency of stratospheric sudden warmings in El Niño and La Niña by Amy H. Butler, and Co-authors 36th NOAA CDPW Contributions Tropical-extratropical teleconnections in boreal summer: Observed interannual variability by Qinghua Ding et al. Tropical ISO and extratropical extreme weather during the 2009-2011 ENSO cycle by Bin Wang et al. The limits of detecting forced responses on seasonal and continental scales by Liwei Jia and Timothy DelSole Decadal variation of rainfall seasonality in the North American Monsoon region and its potential causes by Paola A. Arias et al. A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal prediction experiments by Lisa Goddard et al. Recalibrating and combining ensemble predictions by Michael K. Tippett et al. A metrics for boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation by June-Yi Lee et al. The role of sub-seasonal tropical convective variability for the midlatitude response to ENSO by Erik Swenson and David Straus Primary factors contributing to Japan's extremely hot summer of 2010 by Nobuyuki Kayaba et al. Decadal variations in Eurasian snow: Relation with circulation and possible influence on spring rainfall over China by Zhiyan Zuo et al. Precipitation characteristics of the South American Monsoon System derived from multiple data sets by Leila M. V. Carvalho et al.	Operation & Development An iterative projection method to calculate EOFs successively without use of the covariance matrix by Huug van den Dool Performance characteristics of forecasts based on a lagged ensemble by David Unger 2013 Publications Becker, E., 2013: The Real-time North American Multi-Model Ensemble Turns 2. CLIVAR Exchanges No. 63 / VAMOS! Newsletter No. 9, 6–9. Gottschalck, Jon, and Co-authors, 2013: Large-scale atmospheric and oceanic conditions during the 2011–12 DYNAMO field campaign. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141,, 4173–4196. Chen, Mingyue, Wanqiu Wang, Arun Kumar, 2013: Lagged ensembles, forecast configuration, and seasonal predictions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141,, 3477–3497. Wang, Hui, Arun Kumar, and Wanqiu Wang, 2013: Characteristics of subsurface ocean response to ENSO assessed from simulations with the NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Climate, 26,, 8065–8083. Hu, Zeng-Zhen, and Co-authors, 2013: Why were some La Niña as followed by another La Niña? Clim. Dyn., DOI 10.1007/s00382-013-1917-3. Werner, Kevin, and Kristen Yeager, 2013: Challenges in forecasting the 2011 runoff season in the Colorado Basin. J. Hydrometeor., 14,, 1364–1371. Kumar, Arun, Mingyue Chen, and Wanqiu Wang, 2013: Understanding prediction skill of seasonal mean precipitation over the tropics. J. Climate, 26,, 5674–5681. Xue, Yan, and Co-authors, 2013: Prediction skill and bias of tropical pacific sea surface temperatures in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. J. Climate, 26,, 5358–5378. Werner, Kevin, Kristen Averyt, and Gigi Owen, 2013: River Forecast Application for Water Management: Oil and Water? Wea. Climate Soc., 5,, 244–253. Kumar, Arun, and Co-authors, 2013: Do extreme climate events require extreme forcings? Geophys. Res. Lett., 40,, 3440–3445. Hu, Zeng-Zhen, and Co-authors, 2013: Leading modes of the upper-ocean temperature interannual variability along the equatorial Atlantic Ocean in NCEP GODAS. J. Climate, 26,, 4649–4663. Xia, Youlong and Co-authors, 2013: Overview of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Land Surface Observation, Modeling and Data Assimilation, World Scientific, S. Liang, X. Li, and X. Xie, Eds., 337-377. Kumar, Arun, and R. Murtugudde, 2013: Uncertainty and decision making: A unified perspective to build a bridge from weather to climate. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain., http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2013.05.009. Hu, Zeng-Zhen, and Co-authors, 2013: Weakened interannual variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean since 2000. J. Climate, 26,, 2601-2613. Peng, Peitao, Anthony G. Barnston, and Arun Kumar, 2013: A comparison of skill between two versions of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and CPC’s operational short-lead seasonal outlooks. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 445–462. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-12-00057.1 Riddle, Emily E., and Co-authors, 2013: The impact of the MJO on clusters of wintertime circulation anomalies over the North American region. Clim. Dyn., 40, 1749-1766. Wang, Wanqiu, Mingyue Chen, Arun Kumar, 2013: Seasonal prediction of Arctic sea ice extent from a coupled dynamical forecast system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 1375-1394. L’Heureux, Michelle L., S. Lee, and B. Lyon, 2013: Recent multidecadal strengthening of the Walker circulation across the tropical Pacific. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate1840. L’Heureux, Michelle L., Dan C. Collins, Zeng-Zhen Hu, 2013: Linear trends in sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean and implications for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Clim. Dyn., 40, 1223-1236. Kumar, Arun, Li Zhang, Wanqiu Wang, 2013: Sea surface temperature–precipitation relationship in different reanalyses. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 1118-1123. Higgins, R. W., V. E. Kousky, 2013: Changes in Observed Daily Precipitation over the United States between 1950–79 and 1980–2009. J. Hydrometeor, 14, 105-121. Xia, Youlong, and Coauthors, 2013: Validation of Noah-Simulated Soil Temperature in the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 52, 455–471. Kumar, Arun, and Co-authors, 2013: Does knowing the oceanic PDO phase help predict the atmospheric anomalies in subsequent months? J. Climate, 26, 1268-1285. Becker, Emily J., Huug van den Dool, Malaquias Peña, 2013: Short-term climate extremes: Prediction skill and predictability. J. Climate, 26, 512-531. Weaver, Scott J., 2013: Factors associated with decadal variability in Great Plains summertime surface temperatures. J. Climate, 26, 343-350. 2012 Publications
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