Introduction

1. Why is ensemble forecast needed?

2. What is ensemble forecasting aiming for?

3. How to build an ensemble prediction system (EPS)?
         1-D EPS,  2-D EPS,  3-D EPS

4. What products can be derived from an ensemble forecast?

5. What is the role of EPS post-processing?

6. How to evaluate the quality of an EPS and its forecasts?

7. How to communicate forecast uncertainty and use probability information in decision-making process?

8. What is the impact on downstream applications?

9. Shifting operational forecast paradigm

10. Future trend of ensemble development

11. Summary and references

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*  Dr. Jun Du is the panel member of the American Meteorological Society Ad Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts.